Rachel Howard – McKeen's Hockey

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – WINNIPEG JETS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 21:01:12 +0000

The lineup creator previews each team’s roster based on likely combinations, preseason news, and training camp observations. The lineups here represent a look forward and update of the lineup reviews previously published in the yearbook. Based on the lineup configuration and assigned time-on-ice, the lineup creator projects how many goals a team with score and allow per game and the team’s projected share of on-ice shot quality (expected goal share of xGF%). These statistics allow for a standings points projection for a 56-game season.

LINE COMBOS - The Jets struggled behind a porous defensive system last year and, with few changes to the roster or coaching staff, there is good reason to suspect that this team will play much like last year’s version. Jack Roslovic is a holdout as he awaits a new contract or trade and Trevor Lewis joins the lineup as a late offseason addition to hold Roslovic’s place. On defense, a group that lacks top-pair defenders will lean on the same group again and hope for growth from youngsters like Tucker Poolman and Neal Pionk. Eventually, Ville Heinola will join the defense corps and, after an excellent run through the World Junior Championship, Heinola represents an upgrade for the group. Last year, Connor Hellebuyck was incredible. The concern is his career trajectory: One year up, one year down. For projection purposes, Hellebuyck appears poised for an average season. If that comes to pass, the Jets are likely to struggle without Vezina-calibre goaltending to bail out their defensive shortcomings.

DEFENSE - After the Jacob Trouba trade and the unexpected loss of Dustin Byfuglien, the Jets entered the season very light on defense. Nathan Beaulieu played positively in limited minutes and Neal Pionk carried more load than he should, all while remaining a relative plus. The team added Dylan DeMelo from the Senators at the trade deadline and the Jets were very wise to retain the stabilizing influence. Josh Morrissey was billed as the potential leader for this group heading into last season but struggled mightily and will need to re-establish his defensive play for the Jets to have a chance at limiting quality shots against this season.

FORWARDS - Captain Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers were the best at controlling the flow of play relative to their teammates. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Patrik Laine, the team’s top three scoring threats, played some of the most high-event hockey in the league, creating excellent rates of offense and providing almost no defensive resistance at all. Andrew Copp proved to be a reliable bottom-six checking presence (unlabelled beside Wheeler), while Mason Appleton and Jack Roslovic showed well, at least relative to their teammates.

TEAM - The only teams that ranked near the Jets last year in 5v5 quality shot share were teams that were openly in the throes of rebuild efforts: The Red Wings, Rangers (though their timeline accelerated as the season wore on), the Blackhawks, and the Devils. The Jets posted the third-lowest rate of quality shot creation and the NHL’s worst rate of quality shots allowed against. Asking Hellebuyck to overcome this type of poor play is not a reliable path towards postseason success.

AT A GLANCE - The Winnipeg Jets were the NHL’s most confounding team in 2019-20. Despite incredible scoring options at forward, the team generated virtually no offense and struggled mightily on defense. Despite this, Connor Hellebuych bounced back after a mediocre 2018-19 season to single-handedly carry the Jets into the expanded playoffs. The Jets did enjoy a robust power play. Their penalty kill was atrocious but, again, Hellebuyck saved the day.

GOALTENDING - Tasked with one of the heaviest workloads in the NHL, Connor Hellebuyck soared last season, taking home a well-deserved Vezina Trophy for his efforts. He was the singular reason that the Jets did not slump to the bottom of the NHL standings last season. Laurent Brossoit returns as backup and performed at expectation while facing an incredible 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes of play, the second-highest rate in the NHL.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:59:05 +0000

LINE COMBO - As the Capitals continue into their post-Cup twilight, the team will double-down on its aging roster to take one more playoff run before Alex Ovechkin’s contract runs out. The top-six at forward struggled to control quality shot share last year and the group does not project to be much better this year. But Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, TJ Oshie, Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Tom Wilson can outscore their possession troubles. On defense, last year’s group returns with the addition of offense-oriented Justin Schultz and the ageless Zdeno Chara in his last NHL hurrah. Like the forwards corps, the defense group figures to be slightly on the wrong side of quality shot share. In net, Henrik Lundqvist was forced to step away as he deals with heart surgery. That leaves the bulk of starts to Ilya Samsonov who will be backed up by newcomer Vitek Vanacek. This is not a Cup contending group but expect another playoff berth for the Caps, even in their competitive East Division.

DEFENSE - Norris Candidate John Carlson (unlabelled between Dmitry Orlov and Michal Kempny) was offensively productive but did not truly control the flow of play overall. Orlov remained the team’s most dependable in all three zone, while Jonas Siegenthaler and Brendan Dillon specialized in low-event, defense-first minutes. Trevor van Riemsdyk and Justin Schultz join the group this season, though neither projects to be a major difference-maker.

FORWARDS - Evgeny Kuznetsov is a key offensive player for the team but struggled relative to his teammates last year, posting the Capitals’ worst rates of expected goals for and against. Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie did what they always do, pumping up chances for themselves but giving up plenty of opportunities against as well. Nicklas Backstrom remained as steady as ever and was joined by role players Lars Eller, Garnet Hathaway, and Nic Dowd as the team’s best at controlling the flow of quality chances.

TEAM - The Capitals combined above-average offensive work with average defensive work, mirroring strong teams like the Flyers and Leafs. With a team as rich in talent as the Caps, head coach Peter Laviolette will be wise to continue pushing the pace of play and relying on the team’s talent advantage to win out in the long run.

AT A GLANCE - Though the 2019-20 Capitals failed to last long in the playoff “bubble,” this team enjoyed yet another regular season as a top contender. The Capitals drove play, controlling the flow of shots and creating a positive rate of high-danger chances for themselves. Special teams were plagued by poor luck. The Caps’ power play created a high rate of quality opportunities but failed to convert as expected. The penalty kill was strong too, limiting opponents as well as any PK in the league but surrendering far more goals than expected.

GOAL TENDING - For the first time since 2013, Braden Holtby will not be the Capitals’ nightly starter. Instead, high-upside prospect Ilya Samsonov will look to build off of his impressive showing last season and secure the starter’s role. Samsonov faced a relatively easy workload in the minutes he played last year and the young Russian netminder outperformed expectation. Samsonov will be backed up by Henrik Lundqvist. “The King” joins after a storied career in New York with the Rangers. Despite their poor play last year, the 38 year-old veteran star played at-expectation last year. Behind a better defense, expect Lundqvist to prove capable of productive backup minutes.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – VEGAS GOLD KNIGHTS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:55:27 +0000

LINE COMBOS - 2019-20 was an uneven season for the Vegas Golden Knights. Their offense continued to fly, posting league-topping rates of shots and expected goals. But the team allowed a high rate of high-danger chances and allowed far more goals than expected, all the while underscoring expectation themselves. The power play remained a terror, scoring with the top PP units in the NHL but the penalty was abhorrent. In the end, the Golden Knights were too easy to score on.

DEFENSE - Shea Theodore enjoyed a breakthrough in the “bubble” playoffs, finally gaining recognition as the top-tier defender he has become. Nick Holden proved serviceable in a sheltered role last year as well. But the headline here is the addition of Alex Pietrangelo. A perennial Norris candidate, Pietrangelo and Theodore would be the NHL’s best top pair if played together. Better still, these two can play apart, giving the Golden Knights two pillars in a top-four. The group will miss Nate Schmidt but figures to be even better overall this season than they were in 2019-20.

FORWARDS - The Golden Knights return a relatively unchanged forward corps for the 2021 season. Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and William Karlsson are one of the top three first lines in the NHL (Stone and Pacioretty were able to make it work with Chandler Stephenson too). That leaves Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault (unlabelled beside Smith) as two-thirds of a very offensively talented second line. Cody Glass and Alex Tuch struggled to control the flow of play last year but they are tertiary scoring options and few other NHL teams run as deep at forward as the Golden Knights.

TEAM - Golden Knights fans have been treated to a team that dominates play at even-strength ever since joining the league. The Golden Knights paced the NHL in rate of quality chances and posted the ninth-lowest rate of expected goals against. Only the Lightning posted a similarly impressive combination of 5v5 dominance on offense and defense.

AT A GLANCE - 2019-20 was an uneven season for the Vegas Golden Knights. Their offense continued to fly, posting league-topping rates of shots and expected goals. But the team allowed a high rate of high-danger chances and allowed far more goals than expected, all the while underscoring expectation themselves. The power play remained a terror, scoring with the top PP units in the NHL but the penalty was abhorrent. In the end, the Golden Knights were too easy to score on.

GOALTENDING - Robin Lehner wrested away the starter’s role in Las Vegas after arriving at the trade deadline. He has re-signed long-term with the team and performed above expectation while facing a heavy workload last year (mostly with the Blackhawks). Marc-Andre Fleury’s level of play wavers over the course of a season. But he faced a slightly below-average workload last season and played at-expectation. Fleury is close to the end of an incredible career but enters the season as perhaps the NHL’s best backup, capable of running with the starter’s job at a moment’s notice.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:52:23 +0000

LINE COMBOS - With many options in hand, the Vancouver Canucks have veered towards a suboptimal lineup. The top-six at forward is strong and Nils Hoglander has impressed enough in training camp to earn a look on the second line. The bottom-six is a collection of role players that have struggled dramatically to control the flow of on-ice shot quality. On defense, Nate Schmidt and late addition Travis Hamonic are high-quality additions on the right side. Look for Olli Juolevi to hold on to a nightly lineup spot as well. In net, projections expect Braden Holtby to return to his regular level of quality play after a poor showing last season. He’ll pair with touted prospect Thatcher Demko to form a quality goaltending duo.

DEFENSE - Quinn Hughes finished as a Calder Trophy finalist in 2020 and was deserving of the award. He has become the Canucks’ leader on the blue line, using excellent skating and vision to power the team’s offense while remaining dependable defensively. Tyler Myers was uneven in his first season with the Canucks and would be best suited in a lesser role. Nate Schmidt joins from the Golden Knights. His share of on-ice shot quality was very positive last season, but the Golden Knights were so good as a group that Schmidt wound up on the negative side, relative to his teammates. He’s a legitimate top-pair option for the Canucks.

FORWARDS - Elias Pettersson has emerged as a top-ten forward in the NHL. JT Miller slots in perfectly on the wing for the top line and Brock Boeser continues to be a goal-scoring threat while limiting on-ice chances against better than any other forward on the team. Despite his albatross contract, Loui Eriksson was a positive impact last year, relative to his teammates, while Bo Horvat solidified his role as second-line centre and secondary scorer. The Canucks made attempts to bring in reliable depth forwards prior to last season but Tyler Motte and Jay Beagle both struggled despite regular minutes.

TEAM - In 2019-20, The Canucks produced quality chances at an above-average rate, powered by their elite forward talent and burgeoning star Quinn Hughes on defense. But the Canucks allowed the fourth-highest rate of quality shots against at even-strength, better than only the Jets, Devils, and Blackhawks. For this team to take the next step and become a competitive playoff team, head coach Travis Green’s squad will need to limit opportunities against.

AT A GLANCE - The Canucks enjoyed an early season run in the 2019-20 season and finished with a berth in the expanded playoffs. Despite these successes, the Canucks did not produce impressive underlying results in any category at even-strength. The Canucks’ power play posted pedestrian processes but scored well above expectation. The penalty did good work to limit the high-danger opportunities their goaltenders faced but ultimately produced league-average results. This young roster has a ton of potential but is a group that is still on the rise and not a group that has reached that potential yet.

GOALTENDING - Jacob Markstrom’s results were mediocre overall last year and the Canucks allowed their former starter to move on to a big deal with the Flames, pivoting to a shorter, less expensive contract for Braden Holtby. The former Capitals star struggled last year but has an excellent track record and is a good bet as a bounce-back candidate and fan favourite. Thatcher Demko sparkled in limited minutes before a fantastic small sample showing in the playoffs. He figures to play regularly and may run with the starter’s job for himself.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:47:15 +0000

LINE COMBOS - The Leafs will have their deepest roster in years. After training camp, the Leafs have signalled a desire to skate veteran Joe Thornton on the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Newcomer Jimmy Vesey appears locked into a top-six role as well, matched with John Tavares and William Nylander. KHLer Alexander Barabanov cracks the nightly roster as well, likely lining up with Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds, forming the only forward trio that is likely to struggle controlling the flow of play. On defense, KHL star defender Mikko Lehtonen has a tenuous hold on a top-six spot, rounding out the best Leafs defense corps in years. In net, look for Frederik Andersen to return to his regular standard of play after a down season in 2019-20 and Jack Campbell returns to soak up the backup minutes. Playing in the relatively weak North Division, the shortened 2021 season may represent the Leafs’ best chance at a Stanley Cup win in decades.

DEFENSE - Much like the forward group, GM Dubas rework the defense corps. TJ Brodie was a key addition on the right side, joining Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Travis Dermott to form the best top-four the Leafs have had in years. Justin Holl has proven capable of playing regular minutes and Martin Marincin continues to be a very serviceable depth option. Rasmus Sandin was overmatched last season but still has a bright future. Zach Bogosian joins after winning the Cup with the Lightning and figures to add some toughness (and little else) on the bottom-pairing.

FORWARDS - Not content to stand pat, GM Kyle Dubas reworked the forward group. Power forward Wayne Simmonds joins the group, along with defense-oriented Travis Boyd, the ageless and still-productive Joe Thornton, and Jimmy Vesey (unlabelled beside Thornton). This group will be fluid, hunting for the right mix of defensive responsibility and secondary scoring to supplement the NHL’s deepest top-six. Auston Matthews is a legitimate 50-goal threat, John Tavares is the NHL’s best second-line centre, and William Nylander and Mitch Marner are offensive threats who provide reliable defensive work as well.

TEAM - The Leafs have become the standard for “fun,” high-event hockey, creating many high-danger opportunities for themselves but routinely allowing opponents to do the same. In 2019-20, the Leafs posted the fifth-highest rate of expected goals for but allowed the 10th-highest rate of expected goals against. This fast-paced style is generally wise for high-talent teams, counting on superior talent to win out over time. But starter Frederik Andersen’s poor performance almost single-handedly undid the Leafs last year.

AT A GLANCE - The Toronto Maple Leafs ran into the Blue Jackets’ impenetrable defense and goaltending during the playoffs, leading to another early exit for the young, talented team. At even-strength last season, the Leafs created a ton of offensive opportunities and enjoyed a boosted shooting percentage too. But the team continued to allow a high rate of expected goals against and had one of the NHL’s worst goaltending performances. Special team processes were a plus, though the penalty killing unit was undone by a lack of saves.

GOALTENDING - Though Andersen shoulders much of the blame for the Leafs’ poor showing in the playoffs, he and backup Jack Campbell struggled similarly during the 2019-20 regular season. The Leafs limited opponents to below-average rates of high-quality shots against and both netminders underperformed. Aaron Dell was signed to provide depth and perhaps push Campbell for the backup role. Michael Hutchinson was traded away and has now returned but is merely organizational depth with NHL experience.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:40:47 +0000

LINE COMBOS - The loss of Nikita Kucherov would be a crippling loss for most NHL rosters. But the Tampa Bay Lightning have the depth to withstand the loss of their Art Ross calibre winger. Captain Steven Stamkos returns to the lineup after battling health issues last season, Alexander Volkov looks set to carve out a role, and Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman will reprise their roles as key depth players. On defense, GM Julien Brisebois was able to retain most of the group, including RFA Mikhail Sergachev, at the expense of allowing Kevin Shattenkirk to depart in free agency. The defense group remains excellent and prospect Cal Foote has an opportunity to step into NHL minutes. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Curtis McElhinney are a capable goaltending tandem and the duo returns to the Lightning crease this season.

DEFENSE - Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy candidate and finished as a runner-up for the award in 2020. He continues to pace this defense corps. Mikhail Sergachev (unlabelled at the centre of this chart) and Erik Cernak (beside Sergachev) took on expanded roles last season and, along with veteran Ryan McDonagh, make up a high-quality top-four. Kevin Shattenkirk revitalized his career with the Bolts last year and departed for the Ducks during the offseason. The Lightning will look to Braydon Coburn, Luke Schenn, Luke Witkowski, or prospect Cal Foote to fill out their bottom pair.

FORWARDS - Featuring Kucherov, Point, and captain Steven Stamkos, few teams can match the Lightning’s top-end talent at forward. Yanni Gourde continues to succeed in a depth role and Ondrej Palat (unlabelled beside Gourde) has developed into an excellent complementary winger. Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow escaped poor situations (the Devils and Sharks, respectively) and proved to be quality depth additions for this group.

TEAM - No team in the NHL matched the Lightning’s combination of 5v5 offense and defense. The group allowed the seventh-lowest rate of quality shots against and generated the third-highest rate of quality shots for themselves. Head coach Jon Cooper is the longest-tenured coach in the NHL (head coach for the Lightning since 2013) and he continues to provide the strong systems needed to capitalize on this roster’s elite overall talent.

AT A GLANCE - The Tampa Bay Lightning rode a dominant regular season through the “bubble” playoffs to capture their second Stanley Cup, 16 years after their first. The Lightning were the class of the NHL at even-strength, posting elite marks in virtually every category. Their power play unit was average in terms of process but outscored expectation (having the likes of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov certainly helps). The penalty kill unit was the only point of concern, though the team prevented more goals than expected. The Lightning were absolutely deserving of their postseason triumph.

GOALTENDING - Andrei Vasilevskiy is a good goaltender who has benefitted from playing for one of the NHL’s elite clubs. He faced an easy workload last year and outperformed expectation, powered by great work on the penalty kill. Curtis McElhinney continued his run as a top-end backup goaltender, facing a slightly difficult workload and outperforming expectation as well. The Lightning play great defense and their goaltending duo routinely holds up their end of the bargain.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – ST. LOUIS BLUES

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:39:22 +0000

LINE COMBOS - With Vladimir Tarasenko sidelined and Alex Steen off to retirement, the Blues added Mike Hoffman at the tail end of free agency. Hoffman is one of the NHL’s elite snipers, though he has been a defensive liability during his career. Robert Thomas shone as his role expanded last year and the young forward has earned a spot as the team’s second line centre. On defense, Alex Pietrangelo departed for the Vegas Golden Knights in free agency. To fill that void, Torey Krug was signed away from the Boston Bruins. It’s a minor downgrade for the defense group overall. In net, Jake Allen moved to the Montreal Canadiens, leaving the starter job to Jordan Binnington alone. He projects to be an above-average starter this season and will be backed up by Ville Husso, who has yet to start a game in the NHL.

DEFENSE - Captain and perennial Norris candidate Alex Pietrangelo departed after contentious contract negotiations, leaving a huge hole in the Blues’ top-six. GM Doug Armstrong pivoted to ex-Bruins star Torey Krug, who can likely assume much of Pietrangelo’s role. Vince Dunn is a burgeoning offense-first defender and Marco Scandella has revitalized his career in St. Louis. Colton Parayko will not need to change his game to compensate for Pietrangelo’s departure (Krug can handle that), so watch for another defense-oriented campaign from the physical, future captain.

FORWARDS - The Blues made few changes to their roster, adding only Kyle Clifford to the forward ranks. The ex-Leafs forward will join a group led by two-way star Ryan O’Reilly, and dependable two-way stars like Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, and David Perron. Robert Thomas (unlabelled beside O’Reilly) emerged as a potential top-line talent, youngster Jordan Kyrou flashed offensive upside, and Oskar Sundqvist was a decent middle-six option. Ultimately, a healthy return from star Vladimir Tarasenko could be a difference-maker for this forward group, though shoulder injuries can be tough on snipers.

TEAM - There is little doubt about the staunch style that coach Berube wants to play. The Blues allowed the sixth-lowest rate of quality shots against last year, putting defense first at even-strength. The Blues created the fifth-lowest rate of quality chances for themselves, relying on their bloated shooting percentage and a strong power play to generate goals. Expect the Blues to employ a similar style in 2021.

AT A GLANCE - The St. Louis Blues entered the 2019-20 season as the Stanley Cup champions and they did a strong job of defending their Cup despite a shorter-than-hoped playoff run. Head coach Craig Berube emphasized defense at 5v5 to positive effect. The Blues struggled to create high-quality chances on offense, but they emphasized taking only high-quality shots and enjoyed excellent shooting results, which covered up the low rate of opportunities. The Blues’ power play was perhaps the NHL’s best overall unit and the penalty kill flashed good processes to go along with only average results.

GOALTENDING - Long-time Blues goalie Jake Allen moved to Montreal to become the Canadiens’ backup, leaving the crease to Jordan Binnington as starter and Ville Husso as backup. Binnington has flashed high-end potential during his short career, including posting above-expectation results last year while facing an easy overall workload. Binnington is a fine bet as the team’s future starter. 25-year-old Husso has yet to play in the NHL and will need to prove capable of handling regular duties as Binnington has started 50 games only twice in his career -- last season and in 2012-13 with the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – SAN JOSE SHARKS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:37:52 +0000

LINE COMBO - Ryan Donato joins the Sharks hunting for an opportunity to provide secondary scoring and Patrick Marleau returns for a final run with his long-time team. There is enough scoring in the top-six with Timo Meier, Logan Couture, Evander Kane, and Tomas Hertl, though the group is likely to give up a high rate of prime scoring chances against as well. The defense corps returns largely intact and will rely on bounce-back campaigns from Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns to stabilize the team’s control of expected goal share. Devan Dubnyk will partner with Martin Jones as the goaltending duo and the pair are a couple of the NHL’s least productive starters over the past couple of seasons. This season projects to be a high-scoring, loss-filled struggle for the Sharks.

DEFENSE - The Sharks’ defense corps struggled last year but continues to feature Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic in the top-four. Bounce-back seasons for any or all of these defensemen would go a long way, particularly given the Sharks’ issues in goal. Radim Simek and Mario Ferraro are low-ceiling depth defenders. Look for high-upside prospect Ryan Merkley to get an opportunity to crack the lineup this year.

FORWARDS - Despite the poor showing last year, the Sharks did little to address needs, seeming to accept the need to turn to their prospects for help and settle in for another rough showing in 2021. Tomas Hertl was a very productive all-around play-driver last year, Kevin Labanc was a productive offense-creator, and Timo Meier is an understated sniper. Evander Kane continues to flash high-end offensive upside. Logan Couture is a good, if unspectacular, top-line centre (unlabelled between Kane and Marcus Sorenson). Joe Thornton, the long-time franchise centrepiece, moved to the Leafs to chase a Cup and veteran Patrick Marleau returns to fill that leadership void. At this stage of his career, Marleau is purely a locker room presence.

TEAM - Their underlying work improved as the season went on but the Sharks finished the year as a below-average offense, struggling to create shot quality for themselves at 5v5. Defensively, the Sharks routinely allowed too many high-danger opportunities against, ranking alongside the Red Wings, Rangers, Panthers, and Senators as one of the NHL’s bottom-ten defensive units. There were few positives for this group in 2019-20.

AT A GLANCE - Last season turned into a complete, unexpected collapse for the San Jose Sharks. At even-strength, the team did almost nothing well. The power play fired away at will but could not score. Goaltending was a major issue. The only positive result was the Sharks’ penalty kill, which ranked as the NHL’s best overall unit. The success of the PK offers little solace for fans of a Sharks team that finds itself on the brink of a sudden rebuild.

GOALTENDING - Martin Jones faced a relatively easy workload last year and posted one of the worst showings among regular starters. This is a year-over-year trend for Jones who appears to be overmatched as an NHL starter. GM Doug Wilson acquired ex-Wild starter Devan Dubnyk to help out, but Dubnyk was one of few netminders that posted worse results than Jones last season. This goaltending duo would be enough to sink a deep team. For the Sharks, this tandem might be enough of an issue to lock in a top lottery pick in the 2021 draft

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:35:40 +0000

LINE COMBOS - The contention window has not yet closed in Pittsburgh, as the Penguins return a roster with subtle additions around the core to take another Cup run. Jason Zucker offers excellent secondary scoring. Kasperi Kapanen returns to add much-needed speed on the wing. Colton Sceviour suits the defense-oriented mantra of the Pens’ bottom-six. Dumoulin’s return to the defense corps will be a boost. The biggest question is in goal, where Sullivan’s Pens will turn to two relatively untested goaltenders and rely on a timeshare to get saves. This is a good defensive group overall, which might help boost Jarry and DeSmith’s results. Another year, another run for a Cup final berth.

DEFENSE - Letang remains the engine that powers the defense corps but youngster John Marino quietly emerged as a legitimate top-pair defender. Juuso Riikola was a positively impactful player in limited minutes as well and Marcus Pettersson settled in with quiet minutes in the top-four. Mike Matheson and Cody Ceci join the group as bottom-pair fillers. Brian Dumoulin has been very reliable and should return to top-four minutes this season as well. Jack Johnson was allowed to depart, and that move is addition by subtraction as Johnson has been one of the NHL’s worst overall defensemen for several years.

FORWARDS - Crosby’s 2019-20 campaign was uneven. The superstar centre created high-quality offense at his usual, elite rate. But Crosby’s on-ice defensive results were an issue. Only new-Leafs forward Wayne Simmonds posted a worse relative rate of shot quality allowed among regular forwards last year. Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust were excellent, creating offense while maintaining league-average defensive results. Brandon Tanev, Zach Aston-Reese, and Teddy Blueger (unlabelled beside Tanev) emerged as the NHL’s premier checking line, limiting opponents to league-low rates of shot quality. Jared McCann returns as a similarly skilled defensive stopper and Mark Jankowski joins the group as a defense-first checker.

TEAM - Head coach Mike Sullivan pivoted the Penguins towards a more defensive posture in 2019-20. The team allowed the fourth-lowest rate of expected goals against, lessening the load on their struggling netminders. The Pens created a below-average rate of offense against and, like the Islanders, shifted to relying on their top offensive producers to carry the entire load. Another expert defensive effort will keep the Penguins competitive in 2021.

AT A GLANCE - After 14 years as a Stanley Cup threat, and three Cups wins during that stretch, GM Jim Rutherford continues to be aggressive towards keeping this Penguins team in contention. The Pens pivoted last season, becoming a stalwart defensive group that limited opponent opportunities, including work as one of the NHL’s best penalty killing units. The team struggled to create offensive opportunities but dramatically outscored their expected goals, which helped cover up their lackadaisical offensive process. The cracks are starting to show for the Penguins dynasty but, as long as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are in town, you cannot count the Pens out.

GOALTENDING - Matt Murray struggled last season and the Penguins opted to trade away their former netminder to turn over starter duties to Tristan Jarry. 25-year-old Jarry performed above expectation last season while facing a relatively easy workload. He’s never played more than 47 games in a season at the NHL or AHL level, so look for the team to lean on backup Casey DeSmith to handle a regular starting load as well.

2021 YEARBOOK: UPDATED TEAM ANALYSIS – PHILADELPHIA

Sean Tierney — Thu, 14 Jan 2021 20:32:34 +0000

LINE COMBOS - The Flyers made few changes to the roster but have shown flashes of creativity in training camp. Spreading out top talent across the lineup has been shown to be the most effective way to create mismatches against opponents. Through camp, head coach Alain Vigneault has played Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Jakub Voracek on separate lines. This gives the Flyers three lines that are threats to score any time they are on the ice. On defense, the Flyers are hopeful that former Flames and Blackhawks defender Erik Gustafsson recaptures some of his play-driving skills. In goal, emergent star Carter Hart is a preseason Vezina favourite and another step forward for the young goalie could vault the Flyers into the tier of elite Cup contenders.

DEFENSE - Ivan Provorov has ascended to the upper echelon of defensemen and is the young leader of this group. Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers have developed into clear top-four defenders as well. After that, the Flyers are counting on some bounce-back seasons. Shayne Gostisbehere has flashed excellent offensive potential in the past, Justin Braun remains a dependable, understated defenseman who fits in a top-four, and Erik Gustafsson has been a strong offensive contributor in the past. One more veteran leader might be helpful here, but the Flyers have a nice group overall with untapped upside.

FORWARDS - The Flyers boast a deep and talented forwards corps. James Van Riemsdyk struggled to convert his chances last year, but the veteran power forward was an excellent play-driver throughout the year. Sean Couturier remains one of the league’s most underappreciated star centres. Veteran stars Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux continue to be very positive impact players. Kevin Hayes (unmarked at the centre of the chart) fit in well during his first year in Philadelphia. And the team has a deep pool of positive support players like Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, and Morgan Frost. This is one of the NHL’s deepest forward groups.

TEAM - The Flyers did not create high rates of shots but the shots they did create were high-quality, landing the team in the “fun” quadrant overall. That speaks to an emphasis on working for high-quality opportunities instead of long-range point shots. Much like the Leafs and Capitals, the Flyers are a Cup contending team that isn’t strict enough defensively. Look for head coach Alain Vigneault to push for a better defensive effort in front of Carter Hart as the team pushes for a long Cup run this season.

AT A GLANCE - The Flyers came on strong as the 2019-20 season drew towards the end of the abbreviated regular season. The team didn’t always create shot quantity and allowed a little too much offense against, but all other advanced stats indicators were very positive. The Flyers’ power play clicked all year long and, although the penalty kill’s results were not impressive, the underlying work suggests that the PK was a good unit overall. If the playoffs version of Carter Hart shows up in 2021, the Flyers are an instant Cup contender.

GOALTENDING - Carter Hart has emerged as one of the NHL’s premier puckstoppers and, at 22 years-old, Flyers fans can feel a sense of comfort with their goaltender for years to come. The ageless Brian Elliott was reliable as backup last season as well, facing a relatively easy workload and stopping the shots he was expected to stop. At 35 years-old, Elliott will be best served in a limited role as Hart ramps up his workload.