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OHL: Artyom Grushnikov, D, Hamilton Bulldogs, 2021 NHL Draft Eligible

Sam McGilligan — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 16:05:46 +0000

Projecting a draft eligible player to the NHL is a tricky thing. It is even trickier when there is a global health crisis impacting junior hockey circuits around the world. The OHL not playing a minute, the WHL playing a shortened season where teams only competed within their divisions, the Swedish J20 league shutting down early in the season - these are only a few of the leagues that faced complications due to COVID-19. As a result, scouts have more variables than ever to consider when assessing prospects. In a year where so many did not get a fair chance to showcase their talents, there are important questions that must be asked: how much weight can you realistically place in a D-1 season, and how high can you take a prospect that has not played a minute since the COVID-19 pandemic started?

Enter Artyom Grushnikov. This Russian defenseman was considered by many to be a first-round pick entering the year as his combination of skating and defensive intelligence attracted scouts. His unexpected move to the Hamilton Bulldogs seemed exciting as it would provide a good opportunity for Grushnikov to develop his offensive capabilities but alas, he never got the chance to lace up in the black and gold. He was not able to participate for the Russian U18 squad either, a chance many of us had hoped for so that we could finally see him in action. As a result, scouts are now faced with the challenging task of assessing and projecting his play based off of his D-1 season for Krasnaya Armiya Moskva and various international events (like the World Junior A Challenge).

Development is not linear. We really do not have any idea how Grushnikov progressed from last year to now. He may have improved, stagnated, or regressed. We simply do not know until we get to see him play once again. There is inherent risk baked into selecting him. You may be getting a first-round quality player who developed fine during the year off and has no setbacks, or you may be getting a player who will not be able to catch up on the development curve due to the missed playtime. Regardless of the outcome, Grushnikov will be a fascinating case study to follow over the next few years.

Artyom Grushnikov	2021 NHL Draft Eligible
Position: D, Shoots L	H/W: 6-2", 174 lbs
Stats to date (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)	Hamilton Bulldogs, OHL (DNP)
	2019-20 stats (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)
	Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL (29-1-4-5-4)
	CSKA Moskva U18, Russia U18 (2-1-2-3-0)
	CSKA Moskva U17, Russia U17 (8-0-2-2-0)

Skating -- Grushnikov’s skating is one of his two most leverageable skills as he moves up the pro-hockey ladder. His skating shines its brightest when defending the blue line. He controls his backwards momentum extremely well, as he does not fall for tricky footwork and never commits his weight too much to one side. His backwards skating and close quarters agility lead him to success when trying to angle his opponents towards the perimeter and away from dangerous areas. It does not take more than a few strides for him to get up to speed. He lacks explosivity from a stop, and he does not necessarily possess an elite top speed either, but his maneuverability in tight spaces is where his footwork shines the brightest. He is slick with his edgework, making fine turns and sharp pivots for quick directional changes.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-1-BB3.mp4

This was a smart, subtle play by Grushnikov. By playing the puck into the corner with his stick he forces play back into a neutral state (no possession for either team) but what really stands out is how easily he navigates the incoming pressure. He spins around the F1 for an abundance of open space which is something you want to see from a defensive defenseman nowadays, the ability to turn play around and out of your own zone with crafty footwork.

Grushnikov does have the skating ability to be a bigger transitional threat than he currently is. He does not build up acceleration with lateral movement via crossovers as much as I would like to see, as that type of lateral movement combined with his already crafty footwork could open up a lot of lanes for him during transition. With some increased lateral mobility and better timing jumping into the rush, Grushnikov could be a very effective transitional player. Grade: 55

Shot -- The biggest weakness in Grushnikov’s game is his underwhelming shot. His unrefined mechanics remove a lot of power and his placement is average at best, however the biggest concern is the lack of deception before shooting. NHL players need to mask their intention before shooting the puck if they want to put the puck in the net. You can overcome a lack of deception with sheer power, but Grushnikov’s shot is not exactly an esteemed example of raw power.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-2-BLE1.mp4

Grushnikov’s current shooting form inhibits power due to the loss of kinetic energy through his motion. This is because his upper and lower body are not moving in sync, resulting in limited force being exerted on the puck. There is potential to increase the power of his shot by tightening up the separation between his upper and lower body mechanics but even then, it is still unlikely he will have a high-end shot. When it comes to shot location, he takes the majority from the point. Very few NHLers can score goals from the point regularly, and the ones who do are more advanced shooters than Grushnikov. Without the power to simply launch the puck through defensive layers, he is not likely to be considered a shooting threat at the NHL level.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-3-BLE2.mp4

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-4-BLE3.mp4

Both of these are low danger shots that are unlikely to be consistent goal scoring tools at the MHL level, let alone the NHL. Weak wrist shots from that far away have low odds of even making it to the net, let alone past the goalie. Grushnikov needs to learn to mask his intentions by combining body/eye fakes while threatening passing lanes, as well as how to advance further into the OZ to get his shots off. As of now, the odds of Grushnikov’s shot ever being a true NHL weapon are currently not in his favor. Grade: 45

Skills -- Initially Grushnikov’s puck handling abilities were tough to assess, especially given the infrequency that he uses them and his inconsistency in applying them. Upon retrieving the puck behind his goal line, he can make a subtle, effective move with his hands to open up space to initiate a breakout. The problem is that there are moments where he does not identify clear lanes in front of him, or is indecisive and waits until his pass recipient is under pressure. Sometimes when carrying the puck up the ice you can see him under-handle the puck, waiting for the right lane to open before passing the puck up the ice; far from flashy, but it gets the job done. Under-handling the puck is an oft-understated skill that can be just as useful as overhandling. As Grushnikov develops comfort under-handling the puck while in motion, he could start deceiving his intentions to better open lanes in transition. Unfortunately, he can be found overhandling the puck at times and that is when he really starts to lose focus on how play is unfolding in front of him, missing opportunities to advance play. That being said, for a D-1 in the MHL, Grushnikov showed good habits that could be molded into a skilled breakout initiator. There is a good chance that a year with the Hamilton Bulldogs would have provided chances for him to improve his habits and develop some confidence initiating breakouts. It is not likely that Grushnikov ever becomes a standout player in the offensive zone, but as of now his skill level could lead to an effective transitional/defensive presence. Grade: 50

Smarts -- Grushnikov’s other leverageable skill is his intelligence, most notably on the defensive side of things. He has a strong mental map, knowing where everyone is while understanding where the more dangerous attacking threats are. He also has a thorough understanding of how to engage in various defensive situations, whether it is defending off of the rush, interrupting a cycle or fighting off a ferocious forecheck. His ability to be impactful against various attacking strategies allows him to fit in many different defensive structures. He is actively predicting when the puck is on its way to the net-front and clearing lanes with his stick before chances become dangerous.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-5-BB1.mp4

These are the skills that are required of modern-day defensemen - preventing dangerous chances as soon as they enter the zone, forcing turnovers towards teammates so they can initiate a controlled breakout the other way. This particular clip looks like it could end poorly if there was more incoming pressure, but Grushnikov knew from an earlier scan that there were only two attacking threats. His defensive stop ensured the puck was pried loose away from both. Combining his defensive comprehension with his superb mapping abilities makes him such a standout rear-guard in a league where this type is falling by the wayside. Sometimes he can be found being too passive when defending the blue line, but it is not surprising to see that from a D-1.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-6-BB2.mp4

When defending the rush, Grushnikov maintains a strong gap and effectively combines his stick-work, his skating, and his physicality to reroute the attacker towards the perimeter. It is an ideal way of defending as it effectively forces play away from dangerous areas, limiting offensive opportunities off of the rush. It’s tricky to get past Grushnikov when rushing the puck as you have to navigate past his non-committal footwork (he does not commit his weight to one side until you do), his ample stick abilities, and his ability to take you off the puck himself.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-7-CZE1.mp4

Grushnikov attacking down the dotted line shows promise. He displays his quiet stickhandling abilities here, opening up space for his teammate to receive a pass off the wall by faking a threat to the center of the ice to force the immediate defender's hesitation. The entry is not controlled because the pass is off its mark, but it is a sign of tools to work with.

There are still questions about his decision making both in transition and offensively, but that is not exactly uncommon for a D-1 defenseman playing in the MHL. Grushnikov has shown with his crafty skating, skilled passing arsenal, and (sometimes) good scanning habits that he has the ability to be an effective transitional player, but he is currently held back by middling decision making in open ice. As of now, you draft him for his defensive flexibility and hope that his already demonstrated intelligence provides him the chance to refine the rest of his game. Grade: 55

Physicality -- Grushnikov’s ability to be so effective defensively does not just stem from his fast-paced processing of complex defensive situations, but also his ability to solve these problems with his aggressive physicality. One of his more notable skills is his versatility in board play. His angling as he enters battles along the boards combined with the reach of his stick, allows him to poke at pucks and disrupt the scrum from awkward angles that most forecheckers do not anticipate. He reinforces this skill with good recovery routes, allowing him to disengage and pick his re-engagement angle. This causes him to consistently gain good body positioning, both in open space and along the boards, against bigger and stronger opponents.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Grushnikov-8-BB5.mp4

Here Grushnikov tracks his man down towards the perimeter, leading with his stick to deny any rim plays for the offence, before pinning him with his body to shut play down entirely. As mentioned before, he does the same while defending the rush, forcing his attacker to the perimeter with his advanced footwork and stick, before engaging body contact to remove them from the puck. This style of physical defending will only improve as he fills out his frame over the next few years. Grade: 55

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 53.25

A note on the 20-80 scale used above. We look at five attributes (skating, shooting, puck skills, hockey IQ and physicality) for skaters and six for goalies (athleticism/quickness, compete/temperament, vision/play reading, technique/style, rebound control and puck handling). Each individual attribute is graded along the 20-80 scales, which includes half-grades. The idea is that a projection of 50 in a given attribute meant that our observer believed that the player could get to roughly NHL average at that attribute at maturity

SCOUCHING #23: Topi Niemelä – D – Kärpät #7 – Video/Analytics breakdown

Will Scouch — Tue, 21 Jul 2020 13:35:22 +0000

Topi Niemelä - D - Kärpät #7 - NHL CSS EU8

43GP - 1G+6A - 0.74% G% 5.19%INV - 7.95 NHLeScore

Topi Niemelä #6, FIN during their icehockey, U20 Four Nations Tournament match Finland - Sweden at the Helsinki Ice Hall 10. November 2019, in Helsinki, Finland. (Tomi Hänninen/Newspix24)
© Bildbyrån

It’s always interesting for me to spot young defenders in Europe surprisingly make their professional team rosters and hold their job for the entire season. While it may be a rare occurrence, it’s always a sign of a player worth having a look at. Playing against men who have had far more experience playing the game is a different challenge from most junior competition. The speed, pace, physicality, and intensity can test even the most exciting top prospects. Kärpät Oulu finished at the top of the table in the Finnish Liiga, and for the entirety of the season, young Topi Niemelä slotted in after a strong camp. Niemelä played very little special teams time, but he showed remarkable maturity and potential as a rock-solid defensive player at a high level of professional hockey.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

It is immediately apparent that Topi Niemelä is a patient, defense-first support defenseman. He is highly positionally responsible, tying players up in front, sticking with his men around the DZ, and creating easier opportunities for linemates to start breakouts. While not the flashiest skater, he can find seams well and navigate out of them if he’s headed into a pressure situation. Offensively he can jump into an offensive zone to stop potential breakouts without creating open space, using the boards effectively to take up as much space in the offensive zone as possible.

At times he can be too passive, opponents can find open space away from the puck far too easily. He can very often fall back to an “off the glass” defender, and he tended to get overwhelmed from time to time under pressure, leading to poor decisions and turnovers. He may not actively look for open passing options, or he could take too long to commit, Niemelä was a player that I found you couldn’t truly rely upon every shift, especially with the puck. It is pivotal to remember that he’s playing against men and was a surprise to be doing so at the beginning of the year.

Some of these shortcomings can be forgiven, but it is still important to keep in mind for his future development. He shows good flashes of being a patient defense-first player with enough mobility and skill to potentially be a solid puck mover, but there were some painful moments where he looked too patient, too hasty, or just not quick or skilled enough to evade pressure.

Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Think.mp4

Think Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ThinkShot.mp4

Bad Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BadThink.mp4

Move

Niemelä shows good mobility and decent puck skill from time to time, but the puck skill and speed generation definitely needs improvement and consistency. He’s agile and shifty, able to navigate open space and draw play with him before sending a sneaky pass to a linemate. That being said, there are far too many instances of him bobbling pucks, especially when trying to generate rushes. It’s a quick way to lose games and lose minutes, but he shows potential here. He’s able to find open ice and wait out opposing defensive systems to look for passing lanes. With some refinements to some fundamentals, he could unlock some potential here.

He shows flashes of good skill, an ability to shift his body weight to confuse defenders and open space, navigate pressure, and a great ability to generate speed with his backwards skating. But when he’s off his game, it’s very clear. He’s a player I think just needs to consistently be at his best more often. If he can raise the floor of his ability to corral and control pucks and his ability to generate speed quickly, he could be a really solid mobile defender, but it may take some time. A more conservative NZ defender may be more likely, but there were times I felt he showed potential for something more.

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MovePass-1.mp4

Bad Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BadMove-1.mp4

Get

Considering he’s playing against men, and shows some inconsistencies, his 45% DCZT% is perfectly reasonable. Carrying 40% of the shot attempts while on the ice is far from ideal, but with Niemela on the ice, no other sampled defenseman’s team generated fewer shot attempts, and Niemela took 31.7% of his team’s attempts with him on the ice. His dangerous shot attempts against/60 put him 7th, and was lower than Jamie Drysdale, who played junior hockey.

He’s fluid on his feet and can close down gaps on loose pucks and in transition, but his ability to use his stick to break up play along the boards is where he shows well. He doesn’t so much turn play around as he does break play up. That can burn him from time to time and prolong defensive cycles, but he’s active and capable of stopping rushes. More explosiveness on his feet, more practice with puck control and more confidence with the puck should help round out his defensive game.

He isn’t extremely physical, but often relies on focusing on the sticks of opponents. Attacking sticks with your stick can free pucks up for valuable time to cause cycle breakdowns. He’s a perfectly capable player away from the puck, if a bit inconsistent. He’s responsible positionally, rarely gives up on opposing breakouts, can use his stick to break up play effectively, and if he can bring together his mobility and skill to turn play around, rather than just break it up, he could become a much more valuable play driver, especially if his ability to generate speed improves.

Get Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GetThink.mp4

Get Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GetMove.mp4

Pass

Niemela is part of the 80% completion rate club, but he generated it through a relatively low number of pass attempts, and never making dangerous pass decisions offensively with zero dangerous pass attempts in my sample. This isn’t a bad thing, and at his best, I felt more interested in his ability to move with the puck on his own stick than passing it, but using passing to move pucks with control could add more dynamic ability to his game. He showed flashes of patience, being confident enough to send cross ice passes and still maintain a high completion rate and put enough weight behind his passes to connect at a distance. He was more of a liability with his puck control than his passing, so his potential as a defense-first puck control first-pass defenseman is there.

Shoot

Niemela isn’t the most active shooter, being 9th in total shot attempts/60, and two attempts from medium danger is far from the top. However, Karpat took 40 shot attempts/60 with Niemela on the ice, and he was generating 31.7% of them himself. Only Kasper Puutio has a greater share of attempts, and he played on the Swift Current Broncos who were… very bad. I don’t see Niemelä as a huge shooting threat, but as an active shooter that can pick spots and sneak into more dangerous areas, he could develop a bit in this area. He can sneak up into the middle of the ice for a potential shot attempt but can quickly rotate his hips to turn back towards the blueline and generate the speed needed to cover potential breakouts by the opponent.

The Best Part

His defensive potential when he’s at his best at such a young age. He’s highly active applying pressure with his stick and clogging up rushing and passing lanes. There was nice potential with the puck on his own stick to weave through opponents, find open space in the defensive zone and wait for transition opportunities to appear. He’s conservative in the neutral zone while showing the intelligence to take optimal paths to his own net on opposing breakouts. He has a strong understanding of defensive play against men, which leads me to believe his floor of talent is relatively high.

The Good Part

His ability to complete passes is rock solid. Playing against men and completing 81% of your passes is a good baseline. He clearly doesn’t take a ton of risks, but players like that can be valuable, especially as non-1st round picks. There’s patience and care to his game, spotting teammates all over the NZ for breakout chances, while also being able to recognize a lack of options and going D to D might be optimal. With his ability to navigate into open ice, control the puck and move pucks with efficiency, combining this with his intelligence and anticipation could bode well.

The Not-So Good Part

His puck skill consistency can be all over the place. Bobbling pucks, especially in the defensive zone, is an easy way to lose minutes and give up goals. He really seemed like a player that could be overwhelmed under pressure, felt there were no options, and lose control of the play. Hasty decisionmaking, gripping his stick too hard, and just being generally unreliable with the puck is something that will need to be worked on, but with more experience and skill development, his future could still be bright.

Overall

I saw Topi Niemelä as a potential high floor defense-first defender. He may have issues flexing offensive talent down the road, but as an intelligent passive defender with the potential to be a good puck controller and distributor should be a great pickup in this year’s 2nd round. There’s nothing particularly spectacular in his game, but when he’s playing his game well, he plays it well against Liiga competition. When he’s off, he can be a serious liability. I’ve learned to trust players when they play their best, however. N

Niemela is one of three defenders I’ve tracked playing against pros, with Alexander Nikishin and Helge Grans being the others. His OCZT% is #1 of the 3, and his DSAT% is #1 of the 3 even if it’s just 39%, and he leads the three in controlled offensive transitions/60, and with some refinements on his feet with more experience and confidence, the defensive side of the game could make him a solid puck manager in the 4-6 slot of an NHL team with potential abilities on the penalty kill using his skill, responsibility and evasiveness. He isn’t the most exciting pick if your NHL team lands him, but he’s a good player playing at a high level with some untapped potential should some consistency and reliability issues get ironed out over the next few years.

NOTES

Data tracked includes controlled and uncontrolled zone entries and exits the player is involved in, as well as shot attempts, their location, the player's pass attempts, and the percentage of those pass attempts that are directed to high or medium danger areas. The grades referred to in the video are assigned with a number and a letter grade. The number from one through four indicates the general tier of talent, with one being highest, and the letter indicating the consistency around that tier of talent.

Overall Ranking: Think - 2C, Move - 2D, Get – 1, Pass - 2A, Shoot - 2B, Overall - 2C

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

McKEEN’S 2020 NHL DRAFT GUIDE – 2021 DRAFT PLAYERS TO WATCH – TWO ROUNDS (62 players)

Brock Otten — Sun, 31 May 2020 17:57:24 +0000

[...]

OHL: Connor McMichael, C, London

Brock Otten — Fri, 01 Feb 2019 12:09:12 +0000

If you cannot infer it by reading my grades below, Connor McMichael is one of the most well rounded players available this year. He can play any forward position. He can play in any situation. And his game is very adaptable to the pro style with his skating ability and good decision making. He has had a tremendous season with London so far and needs to be applauded for that and considered a first round prospect, not all that un-similar from a guy like Ty Dellandrea who was taken in the top 15 last year.

Connor McMichael	2019 NHL Draft
Position: C, Shoots: L	H/W: 6-0", 170lbs
Stats to Date: (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)	London Knights, (44-28-26-54-15)

Connor McMichael of the London Knights. Photo by Luke Durda/OHL Images

Skating: McMichael is a high end skater and it helps him to be an extremely effective player away from the puck. He is a very aggressive forechecker and his excellent top speed allows him to be first to loose pucks and dump ins. McMichael also possesses excellent stability and edgework, allowing him to effectively utilize change of pace in his attacks. It also allows him to be a very effective goal scorer as he beats defenders to pucks or position in the slot. With the puck, his first few steps could probably be a little more electric, but I think that has more to do with growth required as a skilled player and not as a skater. McMichael is most definitely an above average skater (proven at the Top Prospect’s Game where his skating test results were among the best). Grade: 60

Shot: One of the top goal scorers in the age group because of his aggressiveness and the quality of his shot release. Requires very little space to get a quick wrister off and is excellent at navigating traffic to put pucks on net. Loves coming off the wall, cutting to the middle and ripping pucks toward the net. McMichael’s hands in close are very good too and he is able to finish off plays in tight, even with defenders on his back. One of the things every goal scorer needs to possess is confidence and McMichael definitely has that too, as he will look to shoot whenever he has the opportunity. He does not hesitate. Grade: 55

Skills: McMichael is not necessarily someone who will look to dazzle you with individual skill or make dynamic plays with the puck. But he is an extremely efficient offensive player who obviously possesses a fair share of skill. He is great in possession and keeps plays alive with his feet and stick along the wall. Has quick hands in close proximity and is tough to separate from the puck, even with a lanky frame. As mentioned, he creates a lot of offensive scoring chances by surprising defenders coming off the wall and is very much a quick strike player. McMichael is also great with deflections in front of the net. Not an elite puck carrier, but an effective one with above average skating ablity. He seems to prefer slowing the game down though. Grade: 55

Smarts: Without question, McMichael has to be considered one of the most intelligent forwards available from the OHL this year. He is extremely effective in all three zones and always seems to get himself in the right position to accept a pass, intercept a pass, or finish off a play in tight. Extremely effective below the hash marks because of his patience and poise with the puck. His playmaking ability does not get enough credit because of how good of a goal scorer he has become and because he possesses a shoot first mentality. But with a very high hockey IQ, McMichael can be an elite two-way forward who can play in any situation for his future team. Grade: 60

Physicality: Not an overtly physical player, McMichael is most definitely an engaged and intense puck hound. As mentioned, he is a terrific forechecker who uses his speed and IQ to force turnovers. But he will take the body to make a play in any zone, even if his hits are not heavy. McMichael will also take a beating to make a play in front of the net, which is impressive given his lack of bulk. He is also very strong along the boards, both as someone who can keep plays alive or to separate his man from the puck in the defensive zone. I wonder if, as he gets stronger, the physical component to his game really grows. Right now, his physicality has to be considered slightly above average, but it is something worth monitoring in the future. Grade: 50

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 56.75

Carolina Hurricanes Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:22:51 +0000

Strong at the top and deep throughout, new Carolina owner Tom Dundon and the General Manager he settled on, Don Waddell, have inherited a team that seems certain to rise in the standings and soon break a postseason drought that is already nine seasons long.

We can leave it to other analysts, in other spaces to debate whether Waddell’s long track record of failure can be easily brushed aside. As General Manager of the Atlanta Thrashers for all or parts of 12 seasons, the team made the postseason once despite the presence of Ilya Kovalchuk through most of that time period, as well as a few other supporting stars. As president of the Hurricanes before taking on the GM mantle, he took a direct part in over half of the Carolina drought.

It is probably also best to leave to others the task of sussing out Dundon’s apparent belief that his competitors in the NHL sphere are doling out far too much money to pay for managers, and hockey executives and he can experience the same level of success when buying suits from the bargain bin. There were more than a few stories over the past few months of young, bright executives passing over on the chance to be the new Hurricanes’ GM as the salary offered was reportedly less than they had been earning as assistant GMs in their current positions.

We could probably take a moment to note that the Hurricanes have always done a good job in their scouting, even though, prior to Dundon, they were known to have one of, if not the smallest scouting staffs in the game. The fact that they recently hired McKeen's alumnus Dave Burstyn as a pro scout should only fortify an organizational strength.

We can commend their change of course with regards to positional drafting. This team had built up a truly enviable young set of blueliners, largely through the draft, with career-long Hurricanes Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, and Haydn Fleury forming five sixths of the defense corps last season, and with more, including 2016 first rounder Jake Bean, on the way.

In fact, since calling out Bean’s name, Carolina made eight more picks in 2016, eight in 2017, and six this summer. Of those 22 players added to the organization, only five were defensemen, just one more than the number of goalies they drafted in that same span.

The 13 forwards express much of the hope for the immediate and short-term future for this franchise. Five of them are among the top seven prospects listed below and another three are included in the top 20.

Scoring goals was only one of the Hurricanes’ recent problems. They also had problems stopping the puck. It is fair to note that they would have made the postseason at least once in the past nine years if they had average NHL goaltending, instead of the slowly decaying Cam Ward and, last year, an in-over-his-head Scott Darling.

We count six young netminders among Carolina’s prospect stash. We only list one in the top 20, but two others are very close and would be safely in the top 20 in many other organizations. We can be confident in their skaters being polished into a strong NHL lineup, but if at least one of the netminders doesn’t pan out, their playoff drought will continue.

Andrei Svechnikov

1 Andrei Svechnikov, RW (2^nd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) An elite scoring talent, in the USHL, OHL and during international play, Svechnikov would often do it all himself, because he could. His skating, puck skills and hockey sense all grade out as high end. His shot, particularly a lethal wrister that can find twine when taken from nearly anywhere in the offensive zone, is a near elite weapon. That said, he is equally comfortable creating for his linemates as he is in manufacturing his own chances. Beyond his skills, the winger is also physically mature. He can play a heavy game if needed. Opponents have to take the body hard to stop Svechnikov when he has a bead on the net, and even then, then can only force him to change direction. At his best, he is unstoppable. After dominating the USHL at age 16, and crushing the OHL at 17, he is ready for the NHL at 18.

Martin Necas

2 Martin Necas, C (12^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 1^st) Although he started his year making his NHL debut, Necas was quickly loaned back to his Czech league team, where he excelled as a teenager in a men’s league, that is, when he wasn’t representing his homeland on the international stage. He is a tremendously exciting talent, with exceptional quickness and high end vision. He has a selection of subtle feints making him very hard to read, and that allow him to cut through the offensive zone, leaving defenders in his wake. Despite his obvious offensive gifts, he has also demonstrated a willingness and ability to take care of his own end. He is still filling out his immature frame, but he is ready for the NHL now, and his first line upside within a few years.

3 Aleksi Saarela, C (Trade: Feb. 28, 2016 [NY Rangers]. Last Year: 6^th) Less than 12 months after being selected by the Rangers in the third round, Saarela was traded to Carolina, along with two future second rounders, for franchise legend Eric Staal. While it would be very unfair to expect that he could replicate the presence of the man he was dealt for, his first full season in the AHL showed him as a very talented player in his own right. Both his shot and his puck skills grade out as high end. He also is a fine skater who plays with a constantly churning motor, helping him overcome to an extent his relatively undersized physique. Still only 21 years old, he may not win an NHL job to start this season, but is likely to earn his first callup as the year progresses.

4 Janne Kuokkanen, LW (43^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 5^th) Not flashy, Janne Kuokkanen is instead a versatile, mature forward who plays a structured, consistent game in all three zones. His tools all grade out well, with notable stress on his puck skills, as he is incredibly tough to strip of the puck once he has it in his possession. Capable of playing both at center and on the wing, his one soft spot is that he may not be overly tough to line up against. But he a very good skater, has a strong shot, works hard, and can be put on the ice in any situation. Considering that in the two years since coming over from Finland, he has spent one season in the OHL and the next in the AHL, an extra season to consolidate his gains and push his boundaries could show a player with a higher upside than is even suggested by this placement.

5 Adam Fox, D (Trade: Jun. 23, 2018 [Calgary]. Last Year: 2^nd [Calgary]) Part of the big Noah Hanifin-Dougie Hamilton trade the Hurricanes swing with Calgary on day two of the NHL draft this year, word is that the Flames were dismayed as they were not able to sway to sway Fox to leave Harvard after his sophomore season. That said, it is hard to see what more he has to learn (on the ice, that is) at the Ivy League school. Over two seasons, he has averaged more than a point per game and his puck skills and offensive vision are among the best in collegiate hockey. He makes up somewhat for his lack of high end skating with a very impressive sense of anticipation. His ability to quarterback the attack is so impressive and advanced that he could be ready to jump into the NHL right after his junior season ends, and the Hurricanes will do everything in their power to convince him to.

6 Julien Gauthier, RW (21^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 4^th) A bodybuilder who would probably be as safe without shoulder pads, Gauthier struggled to make an impact in his rookie pro season with AHL Charlotte. His high end shot still found the net at an acceptable rate, but the rest of his tools, as impressive as they may be in a vacuum, were not able to come to fruition with any consistency. He has ideal power forward size at 6-4”, 225, and is exceptionally strong, but is not a terribly aggressive player, and does not always recognize opportunities to strike. Considering his tremendous build, his fluid skating and soft hands are pleasantly surprising but he still needs to put a few more pieces of the jigsaw puzzle together before he can be deemed ready for the NHL.

7 Eetu Luostarinen, C (42^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: 10^th) A late bloomer who did not even get to Finland’s top junior level until his second year of draft eligibility, Luostarinen continued his rapid ascent last season, consolidating his status in Liiga, nearly doubling his scoring rate from the previous season. He is still rather lanky, but projects to have a big frame once he completes his physical maturity. Combined with his high end puck skills, above average skating ability and mature understanding of the game, a middle six outcome is within reach. There is an ongoing question of when that future will begin, at least in terms of the North American game. Luostarinen still has two seasons to run on his current contract with KalPa.

8 Jake Bean, D (13^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 2^nd) As productive as Bean was with a moribund Calgary Hitmen squad in the WHL, many assumed he would be able to get to another level after he was traded at mid-season to a strong Tri-City team. Unfortunately, Bean struggled in his half season with the Americans, before coming alive in the post-season. A second turn with Canada’s WJC entry did little to raise the bar either, as he was generally sued as the sixth or seventh defenseman on the international stage. He is a skilled blueliner, calm and composed on the puck whether getting it out of his own zone, or walking the blueline in the offensive end. He was adequate in his own zone at the junior level. Between the depth on defense in Carolina and Bean’s personal failure to take his game to new heights in two years since being drafted, the Hurricanes will be patient with him as he learns the professional game in Charlotte.

9 Lucas Wallmark, C (97^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 8^th) Among all skaters with at least 9 games played in the AHL last year, Wallmark led in points-per-game with 1.22. As gifted as he is with the puck – he was one of the most gifted with puck in the minor leagues – and as keen as his offensive instincts are, the former fourth rounder suffers from sub-par foot speed. It is certainly not fair to judge a player based on 19 NHL games over two seasons, but his paltry total of three points over that time did little to suggest that the rest of his game is good enough to overcome the aforementioned handicap. The fact that he is undersized and is susceptible to being manhandled (the ack of escapability hurts here again) also should bring a pause to his supporters. For as much as Carolina struggled to put the puck in the net over the last few years, he should receive an extended look, but Wallmark will have to both produce and improve his deficiencies to make his chance count.

Warren Foegele

10 Warren Foegele, LW (67^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 11^th) Rare is the player drafted directly out of a Canadian high school. While the rate of high end prospects attending elite Canadian schools is growing, they generally leave before their draft year. Warren Foegele was one unicorn who stuck around. Of course, he could not stay the course after enrolling at the University of New Hampshire, leaving early in his sophomore season and gaining some OHL experience before turning pro. After he completed his junior eligibility, he was thought to be a potential bottom six player, but turned those expectations on their head with a stellar AHL debut. He lacks any truly high end tools, but does everything at an above average level. His IQ and work rate also help him to maximize the tools that he does have. Although his two game NHL cameo exceeded everyone’s hopes, he will need to earn it once again, but is firmly on the radar for future contributions.

11 Valentin Zykov, RW (Trade: Feb. 29, 2016 [Los Angeles]. Last Year: not ranked]) Zykov took a bit step forward in his third pro year, second in the Carolina organization, finishing second in scoring for the AHL Checkers, and playing an impressive 10 games in the NHL. While his skating had previously held him back somewhat, he s now better at getting his plus-plus shot off, helped by a knack for finding soft spots in coverage and a solid ability to stickhandle his way free of stick checks. Part of the skating issue is related to a very wide frame (225 pounds on a 6-1” figure), but to his credit, he knows how to use his body effectively, while walking the line between physicality and discipline. The skating will limit his ultimate upside, but he has shown that he deserves a chance.

12 Jack Drury, C (42^nd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Don’t let Jack Drury’s point production in his draft year fool you. He lacks any truly dynamic elements to his game, but he has a lot of good ones to help make up for it. He gets to a good top speed, sees the ice well and demonstrates sound hockey intelligence. To his credit, his whole is greater than the sum of his parts. These are all good things, and they make Drury a fine prospect, but a good deal of his scoring came on the one of USHL’s best power plays (he led the league in both power play goals and assists) and a lot of those assists were secondary assists. Heading to Harvard, Carolina will have at least three years to track his development before they begin to pressure him to sign an ELC.

13 Saku Maenelanen, LW/RW (UFA: May 18, 2018. Last Year: IE) If this list were focused only on the likelihood of a player contributing this year and next year, Maenalanen would be a top three prospect in this system. Once upon a time a fifth round pick of the Predators, the rangy winger stayed in Finland, spending most of the past five seasons playing high level men’s hockey in Liiga, primarily with Karpat, winning two Liiga championships. He had kind of slipped off the radar after leading the WJC in goals in 2014 but re-emerged last season as one of the top players on a title winner, and earned a spot on Team Finland at the World Championships. He skates rather well for his size and shows a good commitment to the game in his own end. There are questions about how much offense he will be able to bring to the NHL level, but he will have a chance to play in the NHL right away.

14 Cliff Pu, RW (Trade: Aug. 2, 2018 [Buffalo]. Last Year: 9^th [Buffalo]) Lean but incredibly fast, Pu was the main return to Carolina from the long-dangled Jeff Skinner. While never a premier scorer in his OHL career, spent mostly with the London Knights, before moving to Kingston at mid-season last year, he has shown flashes of true puck skills since being drafted that hint that he can be more than just a straight line speedster. He has filled out his body nicely since being drafted as well, and while he is not a mean player, he can be effective in puck battles. His 200 foot game and ability to slot in on the penalty kill will be the key to a successful career for Pu as it is hard to see him being able to provide more than secondary scoring punch.

Roland McKeown

15 Roland McKeown, D (Trade: Feb. 25, 2015 [Los Angeles]. Last Year: not ranked) Acquired along with a first round pick from LA for Andrej Sekera a few years ago, McKeown s in the wrong organization to try to break through to a full time NHL role as a safe defenseman without high end offensive skills. To his credit, his second season in the AHL was far superior, at both end, to his first and his offensive game could be adequate at the next level. Adequate for this sense means that he could hold his own as a third pairing defender without putting his team in a bind. His strength is in his own zone work, whether it is filling up passing and shooting lanes and forcing his man to the outside. Also uses his stick well to keep gaps tight. He likely needs a new organization to be more than a seventh defenseman.

16 Stelio Mattheos, C (73^rd overall, 2017. Last Year: 9^th) A look back at Mattheos’ first post draft year and his scouting profile is a reminder that a player can do everything right, producing at high end levels and even improving upon core skills projections, and still drop in a team’s prospect rankings. In this case, it was more a reflection upon how the Hurricanes, as an organization, have continued to stockpile quality prospects while numerous AHLers have also shown similar skills while being much closer to NHL readiness. Despite his production levels, Mattheos is a brawny forward, who makes up in smarts what he lacks in footspeed, the latter of which is just average. He does have a strong shot which should allow him to contribute once he is ready for the AHL, but his skills are not exceptionally dynamic.

17 Nicolas Roy, C (96^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 7^th) Between his size and production over the final two seasons of his QMJHL career – which included a strong performance in the 2017 WJC, expectations for Roy were high going into his rookie professional season. Even as their remain reasons for optimism, he did not live up to expectations. He is a smart center who can lean on opponents for positioning, has a nice shot and soft hands that belie his 6-4”, 207 pound stature, but his lack of foot speed held him back. That deficiency is not so damaging at his size, but still held him back. He is young enough to refine his skating technique and climb this list, but it is not something everyone can do.

18 Andrew Poturalski, C (UDFA: Mar. 8, 2016. Last Year: 14^th) On the small side and lacking the foot speed you usually see in the smaller guys who succeed at the highest levels, Poturalski has earned continued looks thanks to his consistent ability to impact a game offensively. More instinctive than reactive, he has great vision for creating scoring chances for his linemates, and showed an improved ability this past season at finishing his own chances. He is not a fancy dangler, but is a very clever passer, rapidly identifying soft spots in coverage for himself or his teammates. Focusing on what he can do earns him a chance. Focusing on what he cannot do means he will only get so many chances to capitalize on those chances. This year might be his last one.

19 Morgan Geekie, C/RW (67^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 16^th) Despite leading Tri-City in scoring in his age 20 season, 2017-18 was a mild disappointment for Geekie, at least until the postseason arrived where he was one of the most prolific scorers in the league (27 points), despite only playing in 14 games. It would have been good to see him dominate for longer stretches during the regular season, but the main issue with Geekie’s chances of achieving professional success is that his tools are generally around average. He is tall and lanky, but not especially fast. It is hard to splice out how large a share of his production is due to his own play driving and how much a factor of playing on a strong team. He will likely have to prove himself lower down the lineup in Charlotte before he is considered for a potential NHL job.

20 Eetu Makiniemi, G (104^th overall, 2017. Last Year: not ranked) An extremely athletic goaltender who plays a composed game between the pipes, Makiniemi is a bit of a wild card, in that he has yet to play against men, or even in a prestigious international tournament. Tall and lean, he demonstrates a strong ability to read the game in front of him. Affiliated with Jokerit, the one Finnish club that is part of the KHL, presents a challenge in that the senior team has two goalies under contract with significant KHL experience. Makiniemi is still eligible to play at the U20 level, but may be better off being loaned to either a different Finnish organization where he can play senior hockey, perhaps even in the Finnish Mestis (second division).

Colorado Avalanche Prospect System Overview

Tom Dorsa — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:15:11 +0000

The Colorado Avalanche are in a pretty unusual position right now. They do not possess the depth of scoring and blue line talent to make consistent postseason runs, but their surprising qualification for the 2018 playoffs, behind former Calder Trophy winner and league-MVP finalist Nathan MacKinnon, indicates that Colorado has the young talent necessary for contention.

A look at their prospect system says otherwise. With their former top prospects such as MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen already up and contributing greatly to the NHL club, the system does not have the same depth as it should. Combine that with some boneheaded trades (to be fair, some really good ones, we'll get to that) like throwing prospects away for late-season rentals, as well as poor late-round drafting, and no prospect pool will remain deep for long.

What the Avalanche have is one top-pair defense prospect with superstar potential, that being Cale Makar, then a massive crop of guys with role-player ceilings, then a complete bag of unknowns following up. It might be a positive to not have many Grade A stars on the club for financial reasons, but for pure talent and success reasons, it's a flat tire.

Luckily for the Avalanche, general manager Joe Sakic can act with impunity as a fan favorite, making trades and signings at his liking. Sometimes these deals work out very well, such as the Sven Andrighetto and Samuel Girard acquisitions, the Tyson Jost draft pick, or the Alex Kerfoot signing, transactions that made instant impacts on the club. Sakic has some experience in completely turning the franchise around and looks to do the same here.

Another thing that will help mightily is the expansion of the American Hockey League from 30 teams to 31, meaning the Avs return to manning their own farm affiliate, the Colorado Eagles, rather than sharing the San Antonio Rampage roster with St. Louis.

Though Makar, their top prospect, is still outside of the pro system for now, guys like second-ranked Conor Timmins and third-ranked Vladislav Kamenev will not have to worry about ice time or coaching disputes as Colorado receives the AHL expansion franchise. The development of guys like A.J. Greer and Nicolas Meloche were directly affected by the shared franchise in San Antonio.

If the Avalanche want to prove that 2017-18 was no fluke, and that they are ready to be regular postseason contenders, these are the guys that will have to help.

Cale Makar

1 Cale Makar, D (4th overall, 2017. Last year: 1st) Some scouts say Cale Makar could have gone first overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, and with his skillset, it is difficult to disagree. He made headlines a few month ago by electing to remain with UMASS-Amherst as a sophomore this season, rather than joining the Avalanche pro ranks, but fans in Denver will keep an eye on the highly-coveted defenseman nonetheless. Combining blazing wheels, insane vision, and a right-handed shot will make for an instant NHL-caliber blueliner, but Makar is much more, and has been the most purely skilled player on every team, and at every level, he has played on. He is a shifty, elusive skater with unbelievable raw skating power, coupling his mobility with dynamic offensive skills such as his swift, deceptive hands, nifty stutter-steps and dekes, and the occasional fake pass or shot that sends opposing defenders skating in circles. There really isn't much for him to improve upon, and he could hold his own in the NHL right now. He is a smart player who allows plays to develop with his ever-improving hockey sense and does not often force bad puck plays going up the ice, and is surprisingly physical for a 5-11" defender.

2 Conor Timmins, D (32nd overall, 2017. Last year: 3rd) He does not possess the same superstar ceiling as Makar, but the next best prospect defenseman in the Avs’ system is arguably a safer bet to be a consistent NHL contributor. The first pick in 2017's second round, Timmins outplayed 2018 first-rounder Rasmus Sandin on the blueline of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, posting a 0.87 points per game mark (36 in 41 games). For a player drafted so high on account of his sturdiness and responsibility, his offensive output is pretty solid. A very versatile defenseman, Timmins skates well with his athleticism being a driving force, has solid vision that makes for good first stretch passes, and has sneakily great shooting abilities; he can bomb them from the blueline, but also slide down into the play to find an open lane and score. His only issue at this juncture is patience and decisiveness with the puck, but at 19-years-old, he is about as complete as any defensive prospect in hockey. He is set to make the transition to the AHL this season.

3 Vladislav Kamenev, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Nashville]. Last year: 3rd [Nashville]) The Matt Duchene trade continues to look better for Colorado as time elapses. Though Vladislav Kamenev has had a rough go at it in his short NHL time, including a broken arm in his Avalanche debut, his potential is another part of a clear winning trade for Joe Sakic and crew. After putting up near a point per game in his third AHL season, this one with Milwaukee (NSH) and San Antonio (COL), Kamenev cracked the Avs lineup sortly after the trade, indicating a sense of confidence from the coaching staff. A very smart, reliable center, the Russian former second-rounder is often used to protect late leads and kill penalties, something his skillset could allow him to do regularly at the NHL level. He is a solid skater with above average speed and good balance, and has the puck skills to generate scoring chances even when he can't beat a defender with his wheels. With good pure size (6-2", 194 lbs), it is more than likely that he will become a better player with the puck as he gets more NHL time. He is expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp.

4 Martin Kaut, RW (16th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Martin Kaut is a very intriguing prospect. Without looking at his gameplay traits, he can impress just on account of the fact that he played alongside first-rounders Martin Necas and Filip Zadina at the WJC and was constantly developing plays and setting those two up, which is not easy to do at that level. He was also playing at the highest level of Czech hockey at 17 and 18 years old, impressing many along the way, racking up nine goals and seven assists in 38 games there last season. It is on account of that proven performance level that the Avalanche used their first-round pick on the young winger, as his maturity and hockey IQ are unmatched when considering his age and competition level. He is not a very good skater, though he is technically sound and has enough quickness to his feet to keep up with faster skaters. His biggest asset is the mental side of his game, as he processes things at a lightning fast pace and rarely makes a bad decision, coupling that with his effort on defense, where his promise really comes to light in coverage and on the backcheck. He may not be the most dynamic player, but there is a lot to like about Kaut, whose smarts project him as a middle-six winger at the highest level.

Shane Bowers

5 Shane Bowers, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Ottawa]. Last year: 4th [Ottawa]) A power forward acquired from the trade that netted Duchene and Kamanev, Shane Bowers saw no drop in productivity this season as he made the jump from the USHL to the NCAA, scoring 17 goals and adding 15 assists with Boston University as a freshman. A former late first-rounder was one of a few impact prospects acquired from the Duchene trade, he might have the highest ceiling of the pack if he can round his game out. A strong and powerful skater despite of average size (6-0", 178 lbs), Bowers heads right to the net with the puck on his stick, and displays deft balance when making his way to the goal which makes him a handful for opponents. He has some intriguing, wonderful creativity and the hockey IQ to light a match on it all, making scintillating puck plays with ease. He is also dependable in his own end, and very physical when the task calls for it, but plays mostly a clean game (14 PIM in 41 games last season). There is a lot of risk/reward with Bowers, such as how his power forward game will translate to the bigger, faster NHL and how he can produce with a merely average shooting ability, but his ceiling makes him one of the most interesting prospects in the system.

6 Sampo Ranta, RW (78th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) The Sioux City Musketeers triggerman racked up 23 goals and 14 assists in as a second-year player in the USHL, finishing second in points on a team thin on dynamic talent. An easy comparison for Ranta would be Nashville prospect Eeli Tolvanen, given their shared native land and USHL club, but stylistically, there are not far off, as Ranta raises eyebrows with his shot and skating over anything else. Used as a power-play shooter, he showed off the blazing slap shot he possesses often with the Musketeers, although he was not solely a shooter, as his agility, edgework, and speedy momentum allowed him to weave through traffic and find open teammates for scoring chances. He is also a fairly reliable two-way player, one whose effort on backchecks and defensive zone coverage is pretty impressive. Ranta has pure skills, but whether he is a good, NHL-caliber player or just the best player on a bad junior team is the biggest question going forward.

7 Tyler Weiss, LW (109th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) An extremely lightweight winger, Tyler Weiss fell to round four of the most recent draft with concerns about his physical stature and whether he has the inherent skills to overcome it. The Raleigh, North Carolina native has one thing that skill or physicality cannot match, that being pure determination and drive, an attribute that helps him constantly improve in ways that keep turning heads. With the U.S. National Team Development Program, he chipped in 12 goals, 19 assists, and 31 points in mostly a bottom-six role, and now he goes to a system that has made use out of smaller, lighter guys like Samuel Girard and Sven Andrighetto. Weiss is a very quick skater with loads of agility and a certain elusiveness that comes with undersized forwards, using his quick acceleration and short, rapid strides to weave through defenders and enter the offensive zone without a challenge. He does not have much weight behind his shot, but carries more playmaking skills than goal-scoring attributes anyway. He plays with a very scrappy, push-and-shove game away from the puck, and brings an infectious energy to the bench. Colorado can see how his game, despite his diminutive stature, can translate to more physical levels as he plays with Nebraska-Omaha this season.

8 Justus Annunen, G (64th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Easily the top goaltender in the Finnish junior ranks last season, Justus Annunen shot up draft boards with his mix of size, athleticism, and foot movement, hearing his name called in the early third round in June. At 6-4" and 215 lbs, he utilized his big frame to put up a 2.31 GAA, .907 Sv%, and even better numbers in 14 postseason games (1.83, .935%). In addition, he backstopped the gold medal-winning Finland squad at the Under-18 Ivan Hlinka tournament, and joins Liiga powerhouse Karpat next season at just 18 years old. His lateral movement is that of a goaltender four inches shorter, and that combination of size and agility in the blue paint is lethal for the young netminder. He has good play-reading abilities and maintains a solid post-to-post presence, with the most additional work needed being cutting down tricky angles and reading cross-ice passes with more urgency. Annunen enters a system with some underwhelming goaltending prospects and has a chance to solidify himself as the Avalanche's goalie of the future.

9 Cameron Morrison, LW (40th overall, 2016. Last year: 8th) Formerly named the USHL Rookie of the Year, Cameron Morrison has had an inconsistent, but at times promising, transition to the competition level and pace of NCAA hockey. He was over a point-per-game for a below-average Youngstown team in 2015-16, but has yet to eclipse 25 points in either of his two seasons at Notre Dame. With that being said, it is clear that Morrison is getting increasingly comfortable with making plays happen with his immense skill, working hard to do what he does best: getting inside position on opposing defenders and driving to the net. His speed and mechanics are not up to speed, but with scary size (6-3", 212 lbs), he can execute a power forward game from the wing and generate chances with his adept ability to shield the puck from defenders. A decently agile winger, he is effective on the forecheck and can help defensively at times, but defense is not a strength. The former second-rounder needs to be more consistent in creating offense to become an NHL-caliber player, but as with most college players, he remains a long-term project who is still relatively early in his development.

Nick Henry

10 Nick Henry, RW (94th overall, 2017. Last year: 11th) At first glance, one scary thought about Nick Henry is that his offensive numbers in his draft year came as a byproduct of a stacked Regina Pats team that dominated the WHL. This year was more a struggle, as he tallied only 29 points in 53 games. However, in fairness, he was recovering from a shoulder surgery conducted the prior summer, and simply started out slow; as soon as he felt 100%, he rocketed up again, scoring a hat trick in the playoffs against the eventual league champs from Swift Current. Henry possesses raw skill, headlined by a heavy, quick-release wrist shot capable of routinely fooling opposing goaltenders. With average skating speed, he does not carry the puck up much (not uncommon for any linemate of the great Sam Steel), but exhibits splendid hand-eye coordination, offensive creativity, and good hands when he does. The true test for Henry's real, sustainable game will be an eventual foray into the pro ranks, but as he only cost Colorado a fourth-round pick, they have time to wait.

11 Ryan Graves, D (Trade: Feb. 26, 2017 [New York Rangers]. Last year: 6th [New York Rangers]) Unfortunately for Ryan Graves, a very serviceable defender in his own right, Avalanche executives and fans will view him as the consolation for trading the disappointing Chris Bigras, a former high second-rounder whose development in the pros floundered and necessitated a trade away. Nonetheless, Graves offers a reason to remain optimistic, because at 6-4" and 225, there are quality aspects of his game around which to build. He is not a fast skater, but adapted to a playing style in the AHL that masks his flaws and allows him to be effective everywhere else, most notably in physical battles around the boards, stretch passes up the ice, and thunderous slap shots from the point. If any NHL success is to be achieved, the Avalanche will have to pair him with a more mobile, agile defenseman, but it is possible he finds a way to contribute in a supplemental, third-pair role.

12 Spencer Martin, G (63rd overall, 2013. Last year: 16th) Spencer Martin's 2017-18 season was less than ideal, but not exactly his fault. Colorado's AHL affiliate was actually a shared enterprise, with AHL expansion trailing the NHL’s version by 12 months, forcing the Avs and Blues to coexist as San Antonio's NHL parent clubs. With this, Martin got considerably less time than a denoted "goaltender of the future" should, battling with Blues' prospect Ville Husso for time in net. He did decently for a non-playoff team, nonetheless, but not NHL-caliber goalie numbers, going 14-15-0 with a 3.10 GAA and .893 Sv%. He has raw talent boasts extreme calmness under pressure that allows him to make easy -- and difficult -- saves at all times and in all positions. Fairly aggressive in his crease, playing up his big frame by challenging shooters into harder shot angles. Martin projects to be a backup at the NHL level, but still a useful one.

13 Denis Smirnov, RW (156th overall, 2017. Last year: 17th) Drafted as a 19-year-old overager in 2017, Denis Smirnov impressed the Avalanche brass into a draft position by racking up 47 points in 39 games as a freshman at Penn State. Smirnov, a Russian who has played in North American since his age-14 season, was a sneakily skilled scorer at the USHL ranks with Fargo before transitioning to the NCAA, putting to good use an advantage that many prospects from overseas do not have: a preexisting acclimation to smaller North American ice. He produces a lot of offense from the boards and the perimeter of the zone, using his slick hands to escape defenders and pass or exhibiting great assertiveness to fire a confident shot away from some distance. However, he is not a very fast skater at top speed and seems to be a non-factor when he isn't on his game offensively.

14 Ty Lewis, LW (Free Agent Signing: Oct. 3, 2017. Last year: IE) An undrafted, unsigned invite to Avalanche training camp before the 2017-18 season, Ty Lewis showed up ready to compete, and quickly earned himself an ELC with the team. In hindsight, it looks to be a stellar stealth signing from Sakic and company, as the 20-year-old led WHL Brandon in points last season as one of only nine WHLers to reach the 100-point plateau (44 goals, 56 assists). With a dangerous mix of speed, skill, and a nose for the net, he was a pivotal weapon both on and off the puck. When he carried the rubber, he showed his innate ability to either find the open man and drive to the goal to be fed a net-front return or create his own chance. Off the puck, his positioning led to an assortment of easy tap-ins. With the AHL team, Lewis will need to prove his game can transition to the pros, while working on his flawed two-way game.

Nicolas Meloche

15 Nicolas Meloche, D (40th overall, 2015. Last year: 6th) Nicolas Meloche dropped nine spots from last year's prospect rankings to this year's, an indictment of the slow pace of his development. He was generally a liability on the Rampage blueline in what was his first pro year, one supposed to be a highly-anticipated transition to the professional leagues. Instead, he suffered the occasional mid-game benching, healthy scratch, and even an ECHL assignment. Meloche had trouble adjusting to the pace and skill of the AHL, a fact you can blame somewhat on a team thin on the blueline. He still has some raw talent and fine upside as a 6-3", right-handed defenseman who can skate, with superb mobility, a fast, hard shot, and a cool, calm demeanor. An efficient two-way defenseman in the QMJHL ranks, that remains his NHL ceiling, and his late-season performances (five points in final eight games, top-four minutes, power-play time) inspire confidence going down the road.

16 Igor Shvyrev, C (125th overall, 2017. Last year: 15th) Igor Shvyrev is an international man of mystery, but every NHL prospect system needs a resident enigma. Shvyrev embodies that role perfectly; a versatile, extraordinarily-skilled centerman whose numbers in the Russian minor leagues scream future NHL stalwart at times, with 70 points (21 goals, 49 assists) in just 40 games in 2016-17, but he has not been able to stick in the KHL, having just one goal in 42 games at the higher level. So why would the Avs sign the Russian center to an ELC? The simple fact that Shvyrev was playing center in the KHL at 18 and 19, reliably so in the bottom lines for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, is a good sign. Elsewhere, he has a dynamic skillset headlined by swift hands, great vision, a responsible defensive game, and a heavy shot; with some seasoning in the AHL, the 20-year-old could be NHL ready in short order.

17 Scott Kosmachuk, RW (UFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) A third-round pick six years ago and an OHL champion four years prior, Kosmachuk has returned to prospect prominence. After a great season with the Rangers' AHL affiliate in Hartford, he was offered a two-way contract with the Avalanche and will bring with him to Colorado the offensive tools that first made him attractive to NHL teams as a teen. Scouted mostly as an industrious depth winger, Kosmachuk played as a first-liner and at times, completely shouldered the load for the Wolf Pack offense, using his net-front drive, high end shot, and tenacious physicality to become a pain in the neck for opposing defenses. He is a very dangerous at top speed, with tricky agility that is capable of dangling around defenders, despite not being an overly fast skater. If he produces with the Eagles like he did with the Wolf Pack, an NHL recall could be imminent.

18 A.J. Greer, RW (39th overall, 2015. Last year: 7th) Like Meloche, A.J. Greer is someone who dropped considerably from last season's rankings, mainly because of the same issue; inconsistency and the overall inability to reach their game's competitive ceiling. Greer does not have the same offensive chops as Meloche or his other peers, but the Rampage forward netted eight goals and five assists in 35 games with SA and earned the first somewhat long-term recall of his career, playing 17 games with the Avalanche. As a 21-year-old draftee of 2015, you can consider that development timeline normal and timely, but no actual development occurred because he plays such a simple, prototypical bottom-six game. He is effective when he hustles and is very physical on the forecheck, capable of securing loose pucks and scoring some tough, clutch goals thanks to rugged net-front tenacity, but very one-dimensional. He could compete for a roster spot with the Avs this season.

19 Danila Zhuravlyov, D (146th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Definitely a long-term project, but potentially a steal, young Russian defenseman Danila Zhuravlyov displayed a pretty promising two-way game for Russian minor-league club Irbis Kazan (nine goals, nine assists in 28 assists) and for Russia at the World Under-18s (five assists in five games). He is underdeveloped physically, but he has great straight-line speed and acceleration, using those skills to push the puck up ice with frequency. He is not afraid to let the puck fly from the point (his nine goals last season should tell you that) and has a good slap shot to boot. He is an effective defenseman in his own zone despite the lack of size, with tight gap control and attentive coverage within his zone.

20 Sheldon Dries, C (UDFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) After playing as an AHL-contracted rookie with the Texas Stars, Sheldon Dries inked an entry-level deal with the Avalanche in free agency, his first NHL contract. The undrafted center lit the Stars' AHL affiliate up with 19 goals and 11 assists in the regular season, followed by a team-high ten goals on their way to the Calder Cup Final. He is a high-energy guy, one that plays a middle-six role in the AHL while competing on the penalty kill, power play, and defending late leads. A Swiss army knife in Texas' lineup last season, Dries scored the bulk of his goals by driving into the offensive zone with his blazing skating speed and letting it rip with heavy, accurate wrist shots from the slot or around the faceoff circles, putting more power in his wrist shot than his 5-9" frame suggests is possible. Of course, that lack of height is what has held the center back before, but the 24 year-old can be considered a legitimate prospect on account of his maturity, experience, and versatility.

Detroit Red Wings Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:57:52 +0000

In 2016-17, the Red Wings missed the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. They missed again, more emphatically, last year, with their 73 points on the season falling 26 points shy of the final wild card spot.

While the team was seemingly clinging to their postseason hopes through at least mid-season in 2016-17, there was no question that they were not “going for it” last year. They did not quite tank, but they self-identified as sellers as the trade deadline neared and their most prominent off-season acquisition heading into 2017-18 was the one and only Luke Witkowski.

Now that they are a full season past the denial stage of mourning/rebuilding, we can see how the organization is planning to return the Red Wings to a place of prominence in the NHL. On the one hand, they were able to leverage some diminishing assets in 2016-17 to acquire additional draft picks, selecting 11 times in total. On the other hand, all of their extra selections came after the top two rounds. Picking four times in the third round is nice, but having extra picks in the first and/or second is better.

So while Detroit only had 10 draft picks this year, the extra picks were far more significant. In 2017, the Wings second pick was 38^th overall. This year, they selected four times by the time the 38^th pick was taken. They made seven of the first 84 picks. Not only that, but the drafting strategy the Wings took on this year was more centered on skill than on players who fit a certain role. They chose for upside instead of safety.

Not that anything was wrong with the selection of Michael Rasmussen ninth overall last year. Everyone loves 6-6” centers who are mobile and dangerous from the dots on down. On the other hand, he has long dealt with recurring injuries and an outsized portion of his production has come on the power play. He just might not be Eric Lindros.

Their next two highest picks of their 2017 draft class were blueliners who are more notable for IQ and two way play than any sort of dynamism. Systems need those players, and NHL teams need them too, but they are not the types of prospects on whom you can plan a rebuild.

With their first four picks of the 2018 draft, the Red Wings added players who all could have easily fit in the first round and do project as players who could be central to the next playoff team in Detroit.

Detroit looks to have another season of selling in store in 2018-19, but with the ascent of some of the products of the last two draft classes looking to be ready to contribute by 2019-20, as well as the maturation of previous draft hauls, such as Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, and Tyler Bertuzzi, they can now focus on building a team that will not just be competitive, but with some luck, could be an elite franchise again. The path back to greatness will not be linear, but at least they can now envision it.

Filip Zadina

1 Filip Zadina, LW (6^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) While we can understand the motives of Montreal, Ottawa, and Arizona in taking Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brady Tkachuk, and Barrett Hayton with the third, fourth and fifth picks of the draft, respectively, we remain convinced that Zadina was the third best player in the 2018 draft class, closer to Andrei Svechnikov at number 2 than might be believed. He grades at a very high level as a skater, shooter, puck handler and for his hockey IQ. He plays with grit, energy, and a true nose for the net. Even if Zadina plateaued after two thirds of the QMJHL season with Halifax, the level he had been playing at for months is one that few ever achieve at any level. The fact that he upped his output when the lights were brightest suggests he could make good on the chance to make the NHL roster right away. Zadina is a building block.

2 Joe Veleno, C (30^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) The first and thus far only player granted “Exceptional Player” status by the QMJHL, Veleno played a mature game with Saint John, filling a middle six role up the middle as the Sea Dogs won the QMJHL title in 2017. Unfortunately, he slumped badly to kick off his draft year, as the only player of note left on a team in the beginning of a tear-down. He particularly struggled putting the puck in the net. After a midseason trade to Drummondville, with the pressure of being The Man off his shoulders, his season took off again and he more than doubled his goalscoring while improving his rate of helpers as well. Detroit was surprised to see him available at the end of the first round, and his high end skating, playmaking, and hockey IQ all suggest that he could one day be a number one center, with the second line as his floor.

3 Michael Rasmussen, C (9^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 1^st) While it was fair to consider Rasmussen an overdraft at ninth overall in 2017, there is no question but that he profiles as an impact center in the NHL. If there were doubters, his performance in the WHL playoffs last season, with a ridiculous 33 points in 14 games, put such concerns to rest. He is an average skater, even considering his size, which might prevent him from being a true fist line center, but he is an incredible sniper and can be impossible to strip of the puck. That his strength comes with soft hands is a bonus. The Red Wings are expected to give him every chance to make the NHL out of camp this year. He will probably need to be eased into life in the NHL with sheltered shifts, but he should be a top six staple within two seasons.

4 Jared McIsaac, D (36^th overall. Last Year: IE) After being fortunate to nab Zadina at sixth overall in the first round, Detroit returned to Halifax with their second second rounder, taking all around blueliner Jared McIsaac. A fantastic skater who does everything at an above average level, he has already represented Canada at the WU18 tournament twice. It was not too long ago that McIsaac was considered the best offensive defenseman in the QMJHL (ahead of Noah Dobson). With Halifax expected to ramp up as they prepare to host next year’s Memorial Cup, expect McIsaac to put up a copious amount of points and gain even experience in the spotlight. If there is a future first pairing defender in this system, this is it.

Jonatan Berggren

5 Jonatan Berggren, LW/RW (33^rd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) One of the better skating forwards in the 2018 draft class, Berggren put up crazy numbers in the Swedish junior ranks and was one of the breakout stars of the WU18 tournament, but lasted to the second pick of the second round due to a lack of muscle and a lack of experience at the senior level. In his 10 games in the SHL, he failed to get his name on the scoresheet. He should see more time with Skelleftea’s senior team this year, and his skating and puck skills both graded very highly and will be his tickets to the NHL. His other attributes around average, but he shows flashes of a strong shot and enough vision to suggest a top six projection within a few years.

6 Dennis Cholowski, D (20^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 4^th overall) Before leaving St. Cloud St. after his freshman season to sign an ELC with Detroit and proceed to play in the WHL with prince George and then Portland, Cholowski was easy to overlook, whether it was due to playing in the BCHL in his draft year, or due to minimal offensive production in college. That changed when he left for Major Junior. Nearly reaching one point per game in the rough WHL will do that. Cholowski is a highly skilled puck mover, with very high hockey IQ and the ability to play any number of roles at the highest level. He lacks a thundering shot, which may keep him from the first power play unit, but between his ability to read the game, move the puck in the right direction and play at a high pace, he could do most other things.

7 Filip Hronek D (53^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 6^th) Were it not for an amazing draft class, Hronek could easily have been ranked among the top three in this system. Drafted in the second round after struggling to make an impact as an 18 year old in the Czech men’s league, Hronek came to the OHL and had zero adjustment period to the North American game. One year later, his transition from the OHL to the AHL went just as smoothly. He is a very good puck rushing blueliner who could stand to recognize danger a little better. He has also been sheltered, so his ability to play tough minutes is still a question. Those warts aside, he plays a very mature game with the puck and is not very far at all from the NHL.

8 Evgeni Svechnikov, LW (19^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 2^nd) Most players who performed as Svechnikov did last year in the AHL would be hard pressed to appear in a top 20 at all, much less in the top ten of a system as deep as Detroit’s. But even as his point per game average fell from 0.69 to 0.4 in AHL action, he still has a full set of tools, along with youth, to allow him to project into a top six at the NHL level with greater consistency and compete level. To his credit, he did not look completely out of place in a 14 game trial in the NHL, during which he scored his first two goals. He is very talented with the puck on his stick, with a long reach and strong hands and has a quick shot release. He is not bad away from the puck either. All the tools are there, he just needs to show the want to put them together.

9 David Pope, LW (109^th overall, 2013. Last Year: 19^th) The longest tenured prospect in the top 20, David Pope is the epitome of a late bloomer, who truly blossomed over his final two season at Nebraska-Omaha, with 72 points over those 69 games and a Hobey Baker nomination as a senior. Pope has a big frame, and is no more than an average skater, but he packs a very strong shot and above average puck handling skills as well as a sharp hockey mind. Late bloomer or not, he is already 23 and will have to prove himself soon. If he cannot do it within a full AHL campaign, it might never happen, but with some trade assets at LW in the NHL who could be moved by the deadline, we are optimistic.

10 Ryan O’Reilly, C/RW (98^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) To get a steal at the draft, you have to be willing to bet on a player’s upside overcoming his red flags. There are many players out there who are OK at a lot of things, but great at nothing, but only a few who can demonstrate high end tools, even if it is packaged with some subpar ones. O’Reilly, a Texas native, fits that mold. At is best, he has an NHL caliber shot, along with above average skating and puck handling. On the other hand, he can shy away from the game away from the puck and his effort level can waver. His instincts can also hurt him at times. With another year in the USHL in store before attending the U of Denver, Detroit will have a lot of time to let O’Reilly hone his game.

Joe Hicketts

11 Joe Hicketts, D (UDFA: Sep. 24, 2014. Last Year: 9^th) Little Joe Hicketts, packs a big punch despite being one of the smallest blueliners in pro hockey at 5-8”, 180. While his sophomore campaign in the AHL was not as statistically impressive as his rookie season was, he still profiles as a pretty safe third pairing blueliner who is very close to NHL ready. He plays a surprisingly physical game, is strong on his stick, and positions himself well to disrupt opponent attacks. Although he lacks a big shot from the point, he is patient and poised with the puck and is quick on his feet. He will be in consideration for the #6/7 role in Detroit this season.

12 Keith Petruzzelli, G (88^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 8^th) By all accounts, Petruzzelli struggled in his first year with Quinnipiac. The anointed starter as a freshman for the Bobcats, a handful of poor performances caused him to lose the job to Andrew Shortridge. Perhaps we temper our previous enthusiasm a touch, but we still believe in Petruzzelli, particularly as his play ticked back up in the second half of the season. A lanky 6-6”, he has above average athleticism and played a competitive game in the net. The funny thing about goalies is that one extra save every two games can be the difference between fantastic and subpar. One save per game is the difference between sub and superstar. The heat will be on higher this year, but Petruzzelli has the tools to make it work.

13 Gustav Lindstrom, D (38^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 13^th) Drafted by the Red Wings in the second round in 2017 as a mature beyond his years defender who spent his draft year playing with men in Allsvenskan, he showed enough development in his first post-draft year to maintain that projection. He has very good puck control and a dangerous wrist shot, even if his involvement in the offense has been somewhat muted thus far. Although he needs to get stronger, he also showed some more hints of the ability to play a more physical game this year. The Wings have already signed him to an ELC, although Lindstrom is expected to spend next season playing in the SHL, with Frolunda.

Alec Regula

14 Alec Regula, D (67^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) At one time a USHL player committed to the University of Michigan, Alec Regula left the Chicago Steel after playing a supporting run in their Clark Cup Championship and spent his draft year in the OHL, with the London Knights. Seeing as how his offensive game blossomed while retaining his reputation for strong play in his own zone, it looks to have been a wise career choice. Although he lacks any specific impact tools, his overall collection, tied together by an advanced hockey mind, make the whole greater than the sum of the individual parts. He has ideal size, plus mobility and is strong on the puck. He might stay below the radar, but he has NHL upside.

15 Filip Larsson, G (167^th overall, 2016. Last Year: unranked) The Red Wings took a flyer on Larsson despite rather poor numbers in his draft year in the SuperElit and at the WU18s. Actually, his numbers were horrific in the latter. Since then, however, Larsson’s stock has taken off. He improved his save percentage with Djurgarden’s U20 team from .872 to .925 and was named the top goaltender in the USHL after a .941 save percentage in 30 games for Tri-City, which earned him a spot on Sweden’s WJC squad. He has average size, but moves around his crease at a solid level and does not give up on a play. He will have every chance to claim the starting job next year at the University of Denver.

16 Malte Setkov, D (100^th overall, 2017. Last Year: unranked) The towering Setkov left his native Denmark to improve his hockey fortunes with Malmo in Sweden at the age of 15. 6-6” and lanky, he is nonetheless a fairly strong skater and shows signs of upside in terms of puck skills and hockey IQ. When he keeps his game simple, he can be a very effective defender, able to get the puck out of his own zone and begin the transition, while making life difficult for opponents through a heavy game. At his worst, he seems uncoordinated and overthinks things, leading to bad decisions with the puck, or falling out of position. After spending most of last year in the Swedish second division, he will have a bigger opportunity to spend time in the SHL.

17 Libor Sulak, D (UDFA: May 24, 2017. Last Year: unranked) Undrafted despite solid performances growing up in the Czech hockey system, even spending his first draft eligible season in the Russian junior ranks, Sulak caught the eyes of Red Wings scouts in his age 22 season, his second season in the pan Central Europe EBEL. A fantastic skating blueliner, the Wings loaned him to Pelicans, in Finland’s top men’s league to continue his path. A very impressive season in Liiga followed, with 32 points in 42 games, eighth among all league defenders, and second among them in points per game. He even contributed a pair of assists in his two game cameo in the AHL with Grand Rapids. He needs to make some adjustments to his game off the puck, but he should be ready to spend the full season in North America.

18 Givani Smith, RW (46^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 5^th) Givani Smith, whose older brother Gemel had his first full year in the NHL last year with Dallas, is the embodiment of the trend in drafting to avoid limited skill power players in the early rounds. A former second round pick, the younger Smith has a near elite physical game, but lacks any other attributes that project as more than average. Outside of a star turn in the postseason last year with Kitchener, he has never reached 0.7 points-per-game in his OHL career. Between his size and his strength, he will continue to get chances, and there are some power forwards who simply take longer to realize their ceilings, but it is currently hard to see more than a bottom six grinder in Smith right now.

19 Dominic Turgeon, C (63^rd overall, 2014. Last Year: unranked) Unlike many of the other players on this list, Turgeon is not a big upside guy. He is a middle six center in the AHL who projects as a likely fourth liner in the NHL. Son of former first overall pick and landmark Hall of Very Good player Pierre Turgeon, Dominic is not so much a chip off the old block, but he has enough mobility and hockey IQ to play a definite NHL role as soon as this season. He received his first five game sin the NHL last season, and should be in line for a fair bit more next season. He has just enough offensive ability to stick.

20 Otto Kivenmaki, C (191^st overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) It is easy to go under the radar when you are only 5-8”, 150, or when you have never appeared for your country in a prominent international tournament. Missing much of the second half to injury and then signing a three year contract with Assat between the end of the season and the draft also likely nicked Kivenmaki’s draft stock. But despite the red flags, Kivenmaki is a very fast, very skilled center who plays with a fearlessness belying his stature. He scored at a point per game pace in the Jr. A SM-liiga (Finland’s top U20 league) and should move on to the senior Liiga this year.

Nashville Predators Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:09:48 +0000

The Nashville Predators were practically a non-entity at the most recent NHL Entry Draft, with only four picks made, none among the first 110 selections.

Since their first draft class in 1998, they had never made fewer than five picks, and the only time that occurred was back in 2006. This is a franchise that was built through the draft and they have earned a reputation as a strong drafting team particularly when it comes to the defense.

It is understandable that they would have had so few picks this time, though, as the 2017-18 Predators were the strongest team (at least in the regular season) in franchise history.

In most cases, teams that trade away too many picks end up with shallow pipelines, and while the Predators are not at their deepest, they do have a good number of players who still project with NHL upsides. Not high-end upsides, but NHL.

Where the Predators may have a leg up on other organizations that have been in position to sell the future for the present in recent years, is that their picks tend to meet, or exceed expectations. There are certainly exceptions, there aren’t that many and most of their picks end up at minimum, in the professional chain.

That belief in and success at drafting means that the Predators’ AHL affiliate in Milwaukee was stuffed not with professional journeymen (although there were a few – it is impossible not to have any), but with players that the Nashville brain trust hopes and has reasonable expectations to see in the NHL in the near future.

Fully eight of the top 20 prospects in the system spent all or most of last season in the AHL, as well as a few others who narrowly missed this list. Even though that AHL low ceiling, high floor depth does not extend to goaltending, the Predators are trying to change that by bringing in a few young and promising European pros in Miroslav Svoboda and Niclas Westerholm.

They will not all end up with lengthy and storied NHL careers, but the Predators are now in an enviable position of not only having a top tier NHL club, one legitimately discussed as a Stanley Cup contender this year, but they also are prepared for injury to nearly every role on the team, as they have someone ready and chomping at the bit on the farm that could be called up.

Considering how the NHL team currently lacks too many open spots, they are penciling in top prospect Eeli Tolvanen for a middle six slot at right wing and might have a competition for the 13^th forward with mid-tier prospects like Frederick Gaudreau or Emil Pettersson or Yakov Trenin pushing for the gig.

As much as the team’s prospect pool is currently on a low ebb, Nashville has a sustainable that is constantly being renewed with new talent. What they lacked in draft picks this year, they made up with one free agent signing from the AHL, two from the CHL, and four from Europe. None of those players has the upside of a first or second round pick, but they are all closer to being ready to help at the NHL level.

This approach can work, but I wouldn’t recommend the Predators doing this for too many more years.

Eeli Tolvanen

1 Eeli Tolvanen, LW (30^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 1^st) 19-year-olds rarely play significant minutes in the KHL. Before last season, the best year put up by an 18-year-old in KHL history was the 32 point season of Evgeni Kuznetsov in 2010-11. Tolvanen topped that mark by four points. A school credit issue prevented him from joining Boston College, as planned, but between his play for Jokerit and Finland at the WJC, Plan B turned out pretty well. Tolvanen has an elite shot, hard and precise and deadly even from a distance. Despite that tool, he is happy to dish to a teammate who is better positioned. He also does not hesitate to play a strong game, backchecking, fighting for pucks, and finishing checks. He was given a taste of the NHL last year, but he will stay for the whole meal this time.

2 Dante Fabbro, D (17^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 2^nd) Nashville’s first round pick from 2016 took some pretty big steps in his sophomore season at BU, increasing his offensive output by more than 50%, while showing very promising shut down abilities in his own zone. Although he is not especially large, he uses his body effectively in addition to his ability to use his stick to close a gap. He is a very poised, calm defender, reading the opposition well to create space for himself to make the right play and keep the puck moving in the right direction. Considering how stacked the Predators’ NHL blueline is, they don’t need Fabbro to be a top four defenseman, but that is what they’re getting. He will be returning to Boston University for his junior season, wearing the ‘C’ on his chest.

3 Rem Pitlick, C (76^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 7^th) Some players who are drafted in their second or third years of eligibility, they are simply grinders who took advantage of favorable ice time to excel. Others, such as Pitlick, always had the talent, but needed a bit longer to unlock it. Short and stocky, but with high end wheels, a killer shot and slick puck skills, Pitlick has spent two years now with Minnesota, providing top of the lineup scoring punch. While I would like to see more dominance, considering his skill set, he is not an all or nothing player. Willing to take a hit to make a play, he projects as a solid middle six forward who can create plays for his teammates and finish them off with equal efficiency thanks to high end vision and a touch of creativity.

Grant Mismash

4 Grant Mismash, C (61^st overall, 2017. Last Year: 5^th) A high end athlete in the USNTDP in his draft year, Mismash had a quieter debut with North Dakota than the Predators might have liked. He still demonstrated high end puck skills coupled with above average skating and good hockey IQ, but he was not able to showcase all those attributes at the same time. Between his passing ability, his strength, and ability to maintain possession when under pressure, he is strong on the cycle. The flashes of playmaking instincts he did show suggest that additional comfort at the collegiate level could help unwrap a dynamic offensive presence. There is still a lot of road ahead for Mismash, but the future looks bright.

5 Patrick Harper, C (138^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 12^th) Despite suffering through an injury-marred sophomore season at Boston University, Harper continued to dazzle on the ice and in the score sheet when healthy. A point per game player in the half-season he played, he overcomes his tiny size through shifty skating, and a keen understanding of what the other team is trying to achieve, which allows him to take advantage of the space on the ice. To his eternal credit, Harper plays a lot stronger than his 5-9”, 165 frame would suggest. He backchecks hard, does not avoid the greasy parts of the offensive zone and is quick to create a play for a linemate when he gets the puck in favorable position. If he can stay healthy, he could have a dominant junior season.

6 David Farrance, D (92^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: 8^th) A small but very mobile defender who flashed dynamic puck movement ability in his time with the USNTDP, Farrance found it harder to assert himself with any regularity as a freshman with Boston University. He still clearly has the high-end wheels, and his point shot, when he gets one off, is plus, with a quick release. In fairness to him, BU is a powerhouse with a stacked blueline and he still carried a regular shift, he just was not put in prime offensive situations. There is still plenty of reason to believe that the skills that he showed as a junior are still there and added familiarity and comfort with the level will help them shine with greater frequency next year.

7 Frederick Gaudreau, C (UDFA: Jan. 5, 2016. Last Year: 11^th) After four seasons in the Nashville system we know what Gaudreau is as a player. Over the last three years, his point totals in Milwaukee have hovered between 42 and 48. But in those three seasons, his games played have steadily dropped from 75 to 66 and finally, to 54 last year. The difference in games played in the AHL was made up for in time spent in Nashville. Despite playing 29 NHL games already, all three of his NHL goals came in the same playoff game in 2016-17. If Gaudreau breaks through and makes the team for good, his work ethic, heads-up hustle and hockey IQ make him a fit on the fourth line and penalty kill units.

8 Alexandre Carrier, D (115^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 16^th) The smallest in a group of smaller defensemen with AHL Milwaukee, Carrier is also the most gifted puck mover of the lot. He definitely would rather move the puck to a teammate than fire it on net, and he is skilled at cutting a seam with a sharp pass. He also has shown an increased mental aptitude for the game, reading opponents well and earning time on the PK. E could still refine a few areas of his defensive game, such as showing more faith in his legs by playing with tighter gaps, and being more aggressive in his own zone on occasion, but he has come along very well in the past two seasons and looks like the first defender recalled to the NHL in case of injury.

9 Anthony Richard, C (100^th overall, 2015. Last Year: unranked) More than any other player with Milwaukee last year, Richard took huge strides forward in his development, showing some of that offensive potential that he demonstrated from a young age in the QMJHL. He is a very good skater who owns a hard shot and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He is often the first forward up on the forecheck and he frequently forces the opposing defender or goalie into errors due to his approach. His hands are not the softest, which will limit his offensive upside, but his speed and energy should be enough for him to carve out a bottom six role, killing penalties and providing some additional length to the offensive attack.

Jachym Kondelik

10 Jachym Kondelik, C (111^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) A towering 6-6”, with over 220 pounds hanging from his shoulders, Kondelik looks like a nightmare condor, but too often plays more like dove. For all his size, he skates pretty well and he demonstrates soft hands often enough to believe that they are legit. He has dealt with injuries in both of the last two years with Muskegon of the USHL and they may have been a factor, but he plays with a notable lack of intensity. He will often pass up the chance to bump an opponent and fails to be assertive as a general rule. That all said, with his natural physical gifts, the Predators did well to gamble on Kondelik with their first pick of the 2018 draft and will be patient with him as he develops at the University of Connecticut.

11 Tyler Gaudet, C (Trade: Feb. 26, 2018 [Arizona]. Last Year: unranked [Arizona]) Acquired in a trade deadline deal wit Arizona, ostensibly for AHL blueliner Trevor Murphy, Gaudet is trending well for a player who was never drafted either as a junior or by an NHL club. A work working center, he makes the most of what tools he has. His skating is just fine, but his motor is always revving, and he does well at pressuring opposing puck carriers, whether he is forechecking or backchecking. Considering his plus size, his skating effectiveness is actually fairly impressive. He has strong enough hands to protect the puck from stick checking opponents, and a strong enough drive to be a force along the boards. Last year was the first of his professional career that he did not receive any NHL time. Expect that to change for the better this season.

12 Yakov Trenin, LW (55^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 10^th) If Nashville has a deeper system, Trenin’s rookie professional season would likely have dropped him from the top 20 altogether. In addition to the fact that he was all too often a non-factor on the ice, not involved in the center of the action at either end, he simply looked sluggish on his skates. Further, despite owning a big, muscular frame, he rarely used it to his team’s advantage, playing with less verve than the much smaller Anthony Richard, among others. To his credit, despite his struggles in the offensive end, Trenin remained committed to fulfilling his responsibilities in his own end. He will be afforded time to grow into the game, but he will need to show marked improvement next year to remain much of a factor in Nashville’s future plans.

13 Emil Pettersson, C (155^th overall, 2013. Last Year: 14^th) Five years after being drafted in the sixth round, Pettersson came over to North America just in time to miss his younger brother Elias light the Swedish league on fire. The elder Pettersson brother is not nearly as gifted as the Vancouver prospect, but he has smooth hands and good instincts on offense. Long and very lean, he can support two more gifted wingers, which is not a bad ability to have, but may not be able to create offense in North America on his own. He will also need to improve his skating, to get more explosivity, before earning a significant NHL chance.

14 Frederic Allard, D (78^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 9^th) As with most defensemen in the Nashville system, Allard has a smaller frame (tall enough, but thin) but makes up in mobility what he lacks in brawn. The former third rounder’s first year as a professional was a mixed bag, with decent offensive totals leavened by struggles to read the play in his own zone and a brief mid-season demotion to the ECHL. At this stage of his career, he is more effective when his team has the puck. As reminder that player development is not linear, in his last season in the QMJHL, his two-way game was more impressive than his contributions to the attack. His prospects would be better served with a swing back to his previous style of play.

Pavel Koltygin

15 Pavel Koltygin, C/LW (176^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) A potential steal in the sixth round, Koltygin’s draft stock suffered this year as he was unable to build upon a strong North American debut with Drummondville, dropping from 47 points in 65 games in his first year as an import player from Russia, to 42 points in 64 games with a stronger team around him in his second draft eligible year. Outside of the points, Koltygin was worth drafting as he combines powerful legs with a hard shot and quick hands. He also showed an increased commitment to the play in his own end this year, making him less of a pure risk/reward selection.

16 Tanner Jeannot, LW (UDFA: Apr. 2, 2018. Last Year: IE) Passed over three times in the NHL Entry Draft, the Predators gave Jeannot an ELC in his overage year in the WHL, a season in which he eclipsed his previous career in points by 28, doubling his previous career high in goals. Like Gaudreau above, Jeannot is not the toolsiest prospect, but he has good size, plays a heart-and-hustle game and features a pretty good arsenal of shots. He is not slow, but skating is not a strength of his game. The same can be said of his abilities with the puck. Jeannot is the type of player for whom the best-case scenario is not all that different from the most likely outcome.

17 Karel Vajmelka, G (145^th overall, 2015. Last Year: unranked) It might be somewhat telling about the Predators scouting when it comes to goalies that of the six “prospect” netminders in the system, all are at least 6-3”, and most have not lived up to their advance billing, but the one time they went with a smaller goalkeeper, Juuse Saros buzzed through the system and earned a spot on the NHL bench. Vejmelka is the goalie still percolating in the system, most likely to push for NHL consideration going forward. He is athletic in the crease and reads the play well. He split last season between three teams in the Czech Republic’s top two levels and will be challenged to win the starter’s jib again with Kometa Brno.

18 Spencer Stastney, D (131^st overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) On good days last year, Stastney was a dynamic puck mover who could be trusted with the toughest defensive zone shifts as well. He covered opponents tightly and would not bite on deke attempts. On his bad days, he would make poor pinching decisions, cough up the puck shift after shift, and telegraph his intentions, making him very easy to defend against. Combined, he showed a lot of potential as an all-situations defender who has a lot to learn before being able to play his game at the highest levels. For the price of a fifth-round pick, it was more than worth it for the Predators to gamble on Stastney ironing out the kinks and inconsistencies at Notre Dame.

19 Joonas Lyytinen, D (132^nd overall, 2014. Last Year: unranked) The former fifth round pick arrived in North America at the age of 22 and did not immediately show why Nashville had been keeping tabs on him for years. He struggled in the early going to make an impact, spending a few weeks in the ECHL as a consequence. While it is not reflected in the scoresheet, by the end of the year, Lyytinen was starting to show some things worth getting excited about. He moves the puck very well and his reads and reactions showed a respectable level. He has moved on from an afterthought to a player of note in the system, although he will need to take a few more steps forward next year to maintain that status.

20 Thomas Novak, C (85^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 18^th) Despite owning a seemingly hard slapshot, Novak has lit the lamp only 14 times in three seasons of NCAA hockey at Minnesota. His game is more about his hands than his shoulders. He is a skilled stickhandler and creative passer. With the puck on his stick, he is more likely to hit a streaking linemate with a nice diagonal feed, or jive past a defender, than he is to try to take the puck to the net on his own. He plays with good presence of mind but lacks any truly dynamic traits that would lead to an offensive role in his future.

2016 NHL Draft Guide: Best Playmaker

Grant McCagg — Thu, 23 Jun 2016 19:57:52 +0000

Matthew Tkachuk of the London Knights. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

BEST PLAYMAKER

It's quite possible that the two best playmakers in junior hockey played on the same line this season; Tkachuk was one of them.

"He and Mitch Marner were a scary combination in London with their vision and puck skills," said one scout. "Tkachuk was a quarterback along the wall and behind the net. "He'd stick his big body out to protect the puck, and with his tremendous vision and puck skills find the open man time and time again."

MATTHEW TKACHUK
CLAYTON KELLER
LOGAN BROWN
ALEXANDER NYLANDER
JAKE BEAN

2015 NHL Draft marked by stars, trades, peculiarity

Scott Wheeler — Sat, 27 Jun 2015 22:45:02 +0000

On Friday night, when the 2015 NHL Draft kicked off in Sunrise, Florida, it started with few surprises.

"We have a trade to announce," became as second nature as "we are proud to select..."

Erie Otters star Connor McDavid went first overall, followed predictably by unquestioned second overall selection Jack Eichel. Picks three-through-five saw gifted playing-making centre Dylan Strome, diminutive speedster Mitch Marner and Boston College's Noah Hanifin fall into place.

Even as the top-10 closed out, highly ranked names such as Provorov, Zacha, Werenski, Meier, Rantanen and Crouse fell into place about where they were expected to.

After hulking power forward Milan Lucic, top young (soon-to-be 23-year-old) defensemen Dougie Hamilton, and young Senators goalie Robyn Lehner were dealt earlier in the day, it appeared the thunder of the Friday's draft had already been stolen, and the night was going to just play out exactly how it was written up.

Instead though, after the Stars surprised with an earlier than predicted selection of Russian power forward Denis Guryanov, it was up to the Bruins - holding three consecutive picks - to restore the status quo.

They did precisely the opposite. Instead of opting for top eligible forwards such as Mathew Barzal, fresh off a dominant U18 performance, Kyle Connor or Travis Konecny, the Bruins elected to take two-way defensemen Jakub Zboril, scoring forward Jake DeBrusk and depth speedster Zachary Senyshyn, the latter of which wasn't projected as a first round pick let alone 15th overall.

In more ways than one, these three selections shook up the draft. In fact, Barzal's slip in the draft had so much of an impact that the New York Islanders traded former fourth overall pick Griffin Reinhart to the Oilers in order to move up and select him, adding second rounder in the process.

Similarly, as Konecny continued to slide due to the Bruins' unusual trio of selections, the Philadelphia Flyers saw an opportunity and pounced, moving two picks to the Toronto Maple Leafs in order to select him at 24th overall.

Konecny and Barzal weren't the only talented forwards to fall either, as the Arizona Coyotes and San Jose Sharks plucked up Nick Merkley and Jeremy Roy with the last pick of the first round and first pick of the second round respectively.

And as the second round opened up at 10:00 a.m. ET on Saturday morning, the trades didn't show any sign of slowing up.

Before many on the west coast had even awaken, Canucks goalie Eddie Lack had been dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes, who in turn dealt goaltender Anton Khudobin to the Anaheim Ducks for James Wizniewski -- just not until three more other trades had been made.

Meanwhile, the New York Rangers also got busy, taking part in two package deals that saw them trade goaltender Cam Talbot and high-flying winger Carl Hagelin to the Oilers and Ducks respectively, picking up a handful of picks and young power forward Emerson Etem along the way.

The two days were so busy with trades that a deal on Friday that saw the Sabres acquire top, young, two-way centre Ryan O'Reilly and the Stars acquire Stanley Cup champion Antti Niemi were nearly forgotten, mentioned in passing.

As the day continued to evolve, sliders like Jeremy Bracco and Oliver Kylington, both knocked for their attitude, were snatched up by the Flames (No. 60) and the Leafs (No. 61), with the Flames joining a long list of teams to move up for their guy.

With the draft winding down, there were still a few surprises in store, with the Leafs selecting the last big faller, Nikita Korostelev (ranked 34th by myself and 79th by McKeen's), 185th overall.

Still, for a class hailed for it's elite top-end and considerable depth, it was the trades that made the biggest waves.

Even after the draft had run its course, there was one more trade to steal the show and surprise the hockey world.

The Philadelphia Flyers, remarkably, managed to trade a retired NHL player, now NHL employee and soon-to-be Hockey Hall of Fame member Chris Pronger as well as long-rumoured trade bait defensemen Nicklas Grossmann to the Arizona Coyotes for centre Sam Gagner and a conditional pick.

As a result, not only did the Flyers make history, they also shed roughly $5 million in salary to a team that needs to meet the cap floor, opening up the chance to shed more with a Gagner buyout.

Now, the day dwindles, and the discussion slows down, but it is perhaps not the prospects that we will remember about the 2015 NHL Draft and instead the news that led and followed them.