2020 NHL Draft – McKeen's Hockey

QMJHL: Louis Crevier, D, Chicoutimi (Chicago Blackhawks, 7th round, 188th)

2020 NHL Draft Team Reviews: Pacific Division

2020 NHL Draft: Day One Recap

SWEDEN: Oskar Magnusson, LW, Malmo Redhawks J20, SuperElit (2020)

McKEENS NHL DRAFT GUIDE – FINAL MOCK DRAFT 2020 – TWO ROUNDS

SCOUCHING #35: Braden Schneider – RHD – Brandon Wheat Kings

SCOUCHING #34: Alexis Lafrenière – LW – Rimouski Océanic – Video/Analytics Review

MCKEEN’S 2020 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – New York Islanders – ORGANIZATIONAL RANK: 22

New York Islanders

SCOUCHING #33: Kaiden Guhle – LHD – Prince Albert Raiders – Video/Analytics Breakdown

UPDATED! 2020 NHL Mock Draft – Phase Two 3.0 – First 27 Picks

San Jose Sharks

1/31 Ozzy Weisblatt, RW, Prince Albert (WHL)

2/38 Thomas Bordeleau. C, USNTDP (USHL)

2/56 Tristen Robins, C, Saskatoon (WHL)

3/76 Danil Gushchin, LW, Muskegon (USHL)

4/98 Brandon Coe, RW, North Bay (OHL)

7/196 Alex Young, C, Canmore (AJHL)

7/201 Adam Raska, RW, Rimouski (QMJHL)

7/206 Linus Oberg, C/RW, Orebro HK (SHL)

7/210 Timofey Spitserov, RW, Culver Military Academy Prep (USHS-IN)

Best value pick: Brandon Coe

Worst value pick: Linus Oberg

Los Angeles Kings

1/2 Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury (OHL)

2/35 Helge Grans, D, Malmo J20 (SuperElit)

2/45 Brock Faber, D, USNTDP (USHL)

3/66 Kasper Simontaival, RW, Tappara U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga)

3/83 Alex Laferriere, RW, Des Moines (USHL)

4/112 Juho Markkanen, G, SaiPa U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga)

5/128 Martin Chromiak, RW, Kingston (OHL)

5/140 Ben Meehan, D, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

7/190 Aatu Jamsen, RW, Pelicans U18 (U18 SM-sarja)

Best value pick: Martin Chromiak

Worst pick value: Juha Markkanen

Anaheim Ducks

1/6 Jamie Drysdale, D, Erie (OHL)

1/27 Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia (OHL)

2/36 Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago (USHL)

3/67 Ian Moore, D, St. Mark’s School (USHS-MA)

4/104 Thimo Nickl, D, Drummondville (QMJHL)

5/129 Artyom Galimov, LW, Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)

6/160 Albin Sundsvik, C, Skelleftea (SHL)

7/207 Ethan Bowen, C, Chilliwack (BCHL)

Best value pick: Jamie Drysdale

Worst value pick: Thimo Nickl

Arizona Coyotes

2/49 – Forfeited pick

4/111 Mitchell Miller, D, Tri-City (USHL)

5/142 Carson Bantle, LW, Madison (USHL)

6/173 Filip Barklund, C/LW, Orebro J20 (SuperElit)

7/192 Elliot Ekefjard, RW, IF Bjorkloven J20 (J20 Elit)

7/204 Ben McCartney, LW, Brandon (WHL)

Best value pick: Carson Bantle

Worst value pick: Elliot Ekefjard

Calgary Flames

1/24 Connor Zary, C, Kamloops (WHL)

2/50 Yan Kuznetsov, D, University of Connecticut (NCAA/Hockey East)

3/72 Jeremie Poirier, D, Saint John (QMJHL)

3/80 Jake Boltmann, D, Edina HS (USHS-MN)

4/96 Daniil Chechelev, G, Russkie Vityazi Chekhov (MHL)

5/143 Ryan Francis, RW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)

6/174 Rory Kerins, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

7/205 Ilya Solovyov, D, Saginaw (OHL)

Best value pick: Jeremie Poirier

Worst value pick: Daniil Chechelev

Vancouver Canucks

3/82 Joni Jurmo, D, Jokerit U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga)

4/113 Jackson Kurz, C, Shattuck-St. Mary’s Prep (USHS-MN)

5/144 Jacob Truscott, D, USNTDP (USHL)

6/175 Dmitri Zlodeyev, C, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

7/191 Viktor Persson, D, Brynas J20 (SuperElit)

Best value pick: Jacob Truscott

Worst value pick: Jackson Kunz

Edmonton Oilers

1/14 Dylan Holloway, LW, University of Wisconsin (NCAA/Big 10)

4/100 Carter Savoie, LW, Sherwood Park (AJHL)

5/126 Tyler Tullio, RW, Oshawa (OHL)

5/138 Maxim Berezkin, LW, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL)

6/169 Filip Engaras, C, University of New Hampshire (NCAA/Hockey East)

7/200 Jeremias Lindewall, LW, MODO J20 (SuperElit)

Best value pick: Carter Savoie

Worst value pick: Filip Engaras

Vegas Golden Knights

1/29 Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago (USHL)

3/68 Lukas Cormier, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL)

3/91 Jackson Hallum, C, St. Thomas Academy HS (USHS-MN)

5/125 Jesper Vikman, G, AIK J20 (SuperElit)

6/184 Noah Ellis, D, Des Moines (USHL)

7/215 Maxim Marushev, C, Bars Kazan (VHL)

Best value pick: Brendan Brisson

Worst value pick: Jackson Hallum

Think

Move

Get

Pass

Shoot

The Best Part

The Good Part

The Not-So Good Part

Overall

NOTES

Final Ratings: Think - 2D, Move - 2B, Get - 1D, Pass – 2, Shoot - 3B, Overall - 2C

Think

Move

Get

Pass

Shoot

The Best Part

The Good Part

The Not-So Good Part

Overall

NOTES

Final Ratings: Think - 1D, Move - 1B, Get - 1D, Pass - 1B, Shoot - 1C, Overall - 1B

Think

Move

Get

Pass

Shoot

The Best Part

The Good Part

The Not-So Good Part

Overall

NOTES

Benoit Belanger — Sat, 17 Oct 2020 13:28:48 +0000

Tall, Tall, TALL. What else can I say about Louis Crevier? He is an absolute giant. Solid all around defenseman with upside. Like most young players he needs to - and will - get a lot stronger. Absolutely not afraid of contact and he uses his good size very well. He is very mobile for somebody his size and his untapped potential and unique physical assets are what caught my eye.

Crevier is a massive shutdown defenseman but he has shown offensive upside. He needs to become a more reliable passer and point man. He should work on his wrist shot, too. He makes a huge impact on the defensive side of the puck by using his long reach to disrupt plays and deny zone entries. His progression over the past 2-3 year is just phenomenal. He doesn’t hesitate to jump on the play on the rush and he plays a key role in penalty killing.

Crevier may not be as gifted as other defenseman, but again, his size, skating ability, and his intelligence on the ice are just too good to pass up for a second year in a row, and Chicago called his name in the 7^th round, 188^th overall.

Louis Crevier	2020 NHL Draft Eligible
Position: D, Shoots R	H/W: 6-8", 216 lbs
Stats to date (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)	Chicoutimi Sagueneens, QMJHL (59-10-11-21-16)

Louis Crevier. Photo courtesy of the QMJHL.

Skating: For a player of this size, Crevier moves very, very well. In my opinion, he is not lanky at all. His backward skating is excellent, and he is quite mobile. I also like his forward skating, as he has good strides, and he is able to create separation from opponents with those strides. He moves well in all four-directions but could improve his footwork to change direction quicker. It would help him to be able to change direction in an instant. It is not that bad but there is room for improvement in this area. Grade: 50

Shot: When I see the 6-8” Crevier, I expect a much more dangerous shot than he currently has. To his credit, he executes quickly and has very good accuracy. Progression must take place mostly in the area of his strength. The Louis Crevier of 2019-20 did not shoot to score goals, but rather he threw puck to the net. I wish he had the serial killer mentality when it was time to shoot. Most of this section so far has been referring to his wrist shot. On the other hand, his slap shot, and one-timer are both very good and show more power. A lot more power. When he has time to cock his stick back, his shot is heavy. Grade: 50

Skills: Crevier’s puck skills require improvement, especially in his stickhandling. He is not the kind of finesse puck handler and I doubt that this is the role that he will be entrusted to play one day but it would be an additional asset to his game. I would also like to see him improve his passing game. In transition, he does a good job but I would like to see a little more punch, more crispness, in his passes. This could be just a matter of confidence. Grade: 50

Smarts: Crevier’s intelligence is greatly underestimated, but I think NHL scouts have noticed that. The use of his stick is exceptional. He always has his stick on the puck, and he uses his long range to keep opponents away and to eliminate danger in his own end. His positioning without the puck is also excellent. Offensively, he is still able to spot opportunities and attack when occasions arise. He is a steady defender in his own zone, which is a great sign of his comprehension of the game. He can be trusted in all situations: powerplay, 5-vs-5, penalty killing, and other important situations. He is exceptionally coachable, always ready to listen and improve his game. Grade: 55

Physicality: 6-8”. How much more do I need to add? More seriously, it is not because a young player has this awe-inspiring physique, but that he uses it wisely. In the case of Crevier, he really understood that it was an asset and an advantage for him to utilize. He makes perfect use of his body whether in possession or without the puck. He is not known as a big hitter, but he is clearly not intimidated by the physical game. I like the way he manages the 1-on-1 battle along the boards where he is very hard to beat. Same thing in front of the net, and he easily manages to clear the crease. Grade: 60

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 53

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 14 Oct 2020 20:03:03 +0000

For an introduction to these reviews, please see the review of the draft classes of the Metropolitan Division.

Before the draft, the Sharks had one of the most barren systems in the league, ranking 25^th overall in our recently released Prospect Report. While the top prospect in the system at that time was a defenseman, the strength of the system, if there could be said to be a strength, was up front, with seven of the top ten all forwards. If you can’t see where this is going, take another look at the players the Sharks drafted this year, right above this paragraph. Take a moment to spot the trend. I’ll wait right after the line break. You can do it.

You did it! The Sharks had nine picks in this draft, after their wheeling and dealing, and used each of those picks on forwards. Some of these forwards are really good mind you, shaking up the look of the system and providing the Sharks and their fans with some future excitement. Especially the players they selected in the first four rounds, all of whom have both considerable ceilings and respectable floors in their projections. Also notable in this draft class is the lack of size in the players taken. Brandon Coe is the only one of the nine drafted forwards who measures in over 6-0” tall.

Another notable trend that the Sharks seem to have targeted with their 2020 picks was a history of offensive production. Most everyone selected, with the possible exception of seventh rounder Adam Raska, put up strong numbers in their respective draft seasons, and even Raska had put up the points in previous seasons, before he came over from the Czech Republic, to play in the QMJHL. Having utilized the free talent market extensively in recent seasons to augment their work at the draft table, I expect the Sharks to continue to use those channels to fill in the defensemen and the goalies that they ignored at the virtual draft. It’s an interesting and bold strategy and as of right now, there is no reason that it could not work, adding multiple pieces to the next competitive Sharks’ roster.

As much as we love the potential of the first four forwards drafted by the Sharks this year (all have top six upside), they were all selected right around where we had them ranked. So, they would all provide good value relative to slot. Coe, on the other hand, was taken 24 slots later than where we had him ranked. We already alluded to his size, coming in at 6-4”, 190, but didn’t mention that the size does not hamper his skating in the least and he moves tremendously well. His offensive tools also project to above average, giving him middle six upside. The former third overall pick in the 2017 OHL Draft, ahead of a few people drafted in the first round of the NHL draft last year, has been a top scorer on a middling North Bay team, and could blossom with a stronger supporting cast.

Considering how much we liked the Sharks picks in the first four rounds, and they then waited until the seventh round to add additional talent to the organization, there really wasn’t any bad value in the San Jose selections. Of the four players they took in the seventh round, I have the least faith in Oberg exceeding his draft expectations. The only player currently based in Europe (not counting COVID loans), he was in his third year of draft eligibility, gaining some prominence last season as an SHL rookie and a depth forward on Sweden’s Bronze Medal winning WJC squad. He could make it, but depth is the ceiling.

As with the New York Rangers (Alexis Lafreniere) and the Ottawa Senators (Tim Stutzle), the Kings were automatic winners of the 2020 draft as soon as the lottery balls dictated that they would be picking second overall. Lafreniere would be gone, but Rob Blake and friends would have the choice of Byfield or Stutzle. In the end, they elected to select the King-sized center instead of the fleet of foot German. The Kings have been steadily building up one of the best systems in the game, and Byfield waltzes in to take his place on their proverbial prospect throne. But as with any self-respecting rebuilding club, the Kings did not stop after welcoming Byfield to the organization but added eight more players as well. And wouldn’t you know it, but they continued their recent tradition of drafting for skill and production at every opportunity.

Overall, the Kings diversified their draft class, selecting five forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender. Geographically, their picks were mostly split between Finland (3), the OHL (2), and the USHL (3), with the other pick coming out of Sweden. If there is a trend to their picks, it is in their size. Unlike division rivals San Jose, LA largely selected players who are, well, large, or at least, not small. Outside of third rounder Kasper Simontaival, all other picks measure at least 6-0” in height, although some of them still have a lot of filling out to do. For the most part, the drafted players have also all exhibited well-refined hockey IQs, a keen understanding of the flow of the game and the wherewithal to make smart choices. Even if some of the players selected lack top half of the roster upside (I am thinking here of Brock Faber), they have the total package to find their ways up to the NHL.

With so much high-end talent now in the system, the test for the Kings will be to develop their prospect bounty, refining their games and timing their ascension to the NHL carefully. Once the cream rises to the top, the team will also be tasked with finding roles for everyone. Great prospect depth does not always lead to great success at the NHL level, but drafting well is the first step in building a sustainable winner, and the Kings have performed that step rather nicely. The tear down is over. The Kings are ready to start stepping into the future.

So many choices here. In some systems, Alex Laferriere would qualify for this title as a player on the rise with a high end shot and commendable work ethic taken in the third round. In most systems, getting Kasper Simontaival in the third round would be the heist of the draft, as he could easily have gone a full round higher, and has one of the best shots in the draft class. But neither Laferriere nor Simontaival can match the value the Kings fell into when they finally stopped the slide of Martin Chromiak in the fifth round. Between his skating, hands, August-02 birthdate, proven ability to play with top flight players (Zayde Wisdom and Shane Wright with Kingston) and his smooth adaptation to North American hockey, Chromiak is not only Slovakia’s greatest hope for returning to the top flight in junior hockey, but also a player with top six ceiling and an NHL floor. Chromiak should not have been available this deep into Day Two of the draft, but he was, and the Kings will reap the rewards.

While I was not a big fan of Brock Faber (I preferred four of his USNTDP defense mates in this draft class, but only two were already off the board when the Kings called on Faber), I know that many others had a different opinion and he would likely have been drafted later in the second or early in the third even if the Kings passed on him. He plays a safe, smart game, akin to Kings’ 2019 first rounder Tobias Bjornfot, albeit much further from the NHL than Bjornfot was last year. We are instead choosing Markkanen for this dubious distinction. The sone of former Oilers’ netminder Jussi Markkanen, Juha was born in Edmonton, raised in Switzerland, and moved back to Finland as a young teen, where he is currently in the SaiPa system of which his father is the GM. The young Markkanen struggled in Finland’s top junior league last year, and outside of decent mobility, does not have much to suggest that he was worth drafting at all, much less in the fourth round.

Even with the recent prospect graduations of such talents as Sam Steel, Maxime Comtois, Max Jones, and Troy Terry, the Anaheim pipeline is still pretty strong, and still forward heavy. In our recently released Prospect Report, four of the top five prospects in the system – including the number one prospect in the game prior to the draft in Trevor Zegras – were forwards and the fifth was a goalie. Not that we ever advocate drafting for need, but it was especially fortuitous for the Ducks that the best player available when they made the sixth pick in the 2020 draft was a defenseman. Whether the Ducks would have taken Jake Sanderson instead if Ottawa went for a forward with the fifth pick is unknown, but the industry was largely split on the identity of the top blueliner in this class and an argument can be made that Anaheim drafted him with their first round pick of Jamie Drysdale.

The Ducks did not overthink their next two picks either – one later in the first round, and the next one early in the second – taking a pair of wingers who were in the discussion for the best available in their respective slots. The wingers were followed by two more defenders and the team finished their draft with three more forwards. Notably, after the first round, the Ducks followed the growing industry trend of avoiding CHL picks in the later rounds, with only fourth rounder Thimo Nickl, and Austrian import who spent last season playing for Drummondville, of the QMJHL, breaking that run. In fact, if Nickl was playing in the Q as a loaned player, or if he is counted as a European as he left Quebec for Sweden, to play with Rogle’s J20 team, then the Ducks will have only drafted the two CHLers. That trend plays right into the Ducks ongoing relationship with the Chicago Steel of the USHL. In recent years, they have drafted Jack Badini (2017), Blake McLaughlin (2018) and Jackson Lacombe (2019), all with deep Steel ties. This year, their third pick, Sam Colangelo, spent the past two seasons playing for the Steel, while their fourth pick, Ian Moore, will be playing there next season before moving on to the collegiate game.

Beyond the push to draft players for whom they will have plenty of time to bring under contract, the Ducks leaned towards their roots of size and skill, with none of the drafted players standing under 5-11”, and five of the eight coming in at 6-0” or taller. Much like their anti-CHL bias, two of the three 5-11” picks were the Ducks first rounders, indicating that when the upside is that high, size is less of a concern, but when the upside is muted in the later rounds, they would prefer a taller player to a shorter one.

The truth is that the Ducks did not draft anyone significantly later than where we had them ranked. Six of their eight picks were listed in our top 217, and they were all selected very close to where we had them listed. Without having the benefit of drafting a player below his projected outcomes, then the best value naturally comes at the top. In Drysdale, the Ducks have a world class skater, who exhibits equal measures of calmness and dynamism when transporting the puck up the ice. Without owning a bigtime point shot, he has the vision and skill set to be an offensive quarterback, directing the play and helping his team maintain possession for multi-chance offensive zone possessions. This is a future star deservedly selected at the top of the draft. That’s value.

As the majority of the Ducks’ picks were made near where we had them ranked, we can only give this spot to their one pick who didn’t make either our main or Honorable Mention lists, which combine to cover 317 players in total. A right shot defender, Nickl put up strong numbers in his first North American season last year, and played a key role in helping Austria gain promotion into the top rung of U20 hockey, but he is a subpar skater and his tools do not otherwise make us confident that his skating can be overcome in other ways.

Mario Ferraro, Kirill Marchenko, and Matthew Robertson were the three players picked 49^th overall during the 2017, 18, and 19 drafts, respectively. The Coyotes would have had the 49^th pick of the 2020 draft had they not been busted for repeatedly violating the league’s mandate for teams not to independently have draft eligible prospects work out for them privately. For these transgressions, the Coyotes were stripped of their second-round pick from the 2020 draft and their first round pick in 2021. Their 2020 first rounder had already been traded to New Jersey in the Taylor Hall trade before the league handed down its punishment. For the record, the 49^th player drafted this year – who will forever be listed as the 50^th pick due to the prior forfeiture – was Yan Kuznetsov, to Calgary.

In addition to the lost picks in the first two rounds, the Coyotes also did not have their third round pick, which was traded to Colorado (and then on to Washington and finally, Calgary), as part of the package for Carl Soderberg. Between the Hall trade – which included some of the Coyotes top prospects in addition to the picks – and the forfeited picks, the Coyotes future is in the hole. This year’s presence in the playoffs might be the franchise’s last for a while without a gigantic turnaround under new GM Bill Armstrong. Incidentally, Armstrong was not allowed to be active in the draft room this year, a condition of his recent hire away from the St. Louis Blues.

Looking only at the picks that Arizona did make, there is the small mercy that they started strong, picking a pair of USHL studs with legit NHL upside. One of those picks had some disturbing incidents in his past that had him drop down many teams’ lists – and off the list altogether for a few teams – which gives the Coyotes some solid buy-low projection there. As for their other three picks, two were used on Swedish wingers who had been flying way below the radar, and a second time eligible winger from the WHL. The value received in their first two picks is a net positive for the franchise as it begins to dig out of their current predicament. But even so, they are not enough to get the franchise on a sustainable, positive future direction.

Just looking at on-ice capabilities, Miller is the best value pick the Coyotes made in this draft class. He is a right-shooting defender who is quick and has great edges and is both creative with the puck and tough without it. But, as alluded to above, there is an incident from his past which is both incredibly disturbing and damaging. If it was, as he stated, a product of immaturity, then he could easily overcome the transgression. If not, then he is only a fourth-round pick that Arizona can easily walk away from. Bantle, on the other hand, has no shadows cast over his capabilities. He is very big, skates very well, especially considering his size, has a very strong shot, and can play a power game. He will spend some time at Michigan Tech before turning pro, but he should have been long gone by the fifth round.

We didn’t have any real notes on sixth rounder Filip Barklund either, but Barklund at least spent a full season playing in Sweden’s top junior league and is off to a nice start this year as well. Ekefjard, in contrast, spent last year flitting between the country’s two main U18 leagues, and then the second highest U20 league. The numbers are OK, but against subpar competition. He, too, is off to a solid start in the top U20 league this year, but he has zero track record against top competition. On the other hand, he’s huge. So there’s that.

As the world zigs, the Flames have zagged. I am talking here about the shift of more and more teams using later picks on European and college-bound players, giving themselves more time to make a decision on a draft pick before losing the player’s rights. And here are the Flames, using five of their eight picks on CHLers. If more than one of those guys doesn’t progress enough to be offered an ELC, this draft will not look as good. Think Milos Roman, the team’s 4^th rounder in 2018, who was allowed to walk this year as he never really upped his game in the two years since he was drafted.

I can also extend the idea of going against the grain in terms of the Flames being part of the only two day one trades, as they traded down twice to get additional picks. They first sent pick 19 to the Rangers for picks 22 and 72 (3^rd round). They then flipped pick 22 to Washington for picks 24 and 80. The 19^th pick was used on Braden Schneider. The 22^nd pick was used on Hendrix Lapierre. Calgary used the 24^th pick on Connor Zary. We had Zary ranked right between Schneider and Lapierre. If Zary was a prettier skater, he would likely have been ranked higher than both of the others. As is, he still has strong top six upside. And Calgary was able to add two high upside defensemen to their system by virtue of those trades.

All told, we have mixed views on the players Calgary added to its system this year. There is a nice blend of upside, including Zary, the two players drafted with the traded for third rounders (Jeremie Poirier and Jake Boltmann) and Ryan Francis. On the other hand, the other four picks smack of safe, low upside types with little hope of future NHL impact. I would be happy to be wrong on them, and I wish them great success, but they simply weren’t inspiring picks.

We were not among those outlets that saw Poirier as a first-round type. He is incredibly talented, with among the best hands of any defenseman in this draft class, but his risk heavy game was so pronounced that at some point we have to understand it as a handicap in his ability to read and react to opponents when off the puck as opposed to being a reflection of calculated risk taking. So, there is definitely boom or bust potential with this pick, but his boom outcome is as an All Star. If you have the chance to take someone with All Star potential in the third round, even if there is an equal chance that he never make the NHL at all, you must take that chance. Kudos to Calgary for going there.

I wasn’t a fan of second rounder Yan Kuznetsov either, but he was a clear draft pick who has already accomplished quite a bit before his 18^th birthday, playing big minutes at the collegiate level in a power conference. And with Calgary’s two defensive pickups in the third round, I can stomach the safe approach on a blueliner immediately prior. Chechelev, a truly under-the-radar Russian netminder, is now in his third season in Russia’s top junior league, the MHL. His numbers have been fine, considering the context of the level of play, but certainly not eye-popping. In fact, his current crease-mate has better numbers, which is not a great sign. I suspect there is a relation between Calgary drafting Chechelev and USHL Sioux City taking a 15^th round flier on him in the most recent USHL Entry Draft. Sioux City’s current Head Coach and Director of Hockey Operations, Luke Strand, was a former amateur scout for Calgary. Could be some information sharing there. Regardless of the spy game potentially at play here, there is little to suggest that Chechelev would not have been available two or three rounds later as well.

Without any picks in the first two rounds, the Canucks were one of the last teams to make a pick this year (see Arizona). As most every pick after the first 100 selections is a long shot to a degree, I respect Vancouver’s using each pick on an upside play. If anyone makes it, it is a victory, and if no one makes it, well, none of them were high picks to begin with. The plan here was to get as much talent as they could, and it looks like they succeeded. Not that every scout and GM will agree with our rankings (although they really should), but the Canucks drafted two players who we had ranked higher than where they made their first selection.

They did not have enough picks to discern any trends in their approach, other than spreading things out geographically. No two players were in the same league last year, unless you count fourth rounder Jackson Kunz’ five games with the Green Bay Gamblers meaning he was in the same league as fifth rounder Jacob Truscott, a USNTDP alum. It would have been interesting to see where else they would have drawn players from had they had a few more picks to play with.

The players they did select tended to the bigger side of things, with only Dmitri Zlodeyev measured below 6-0” at present. It will likely be years before we have a clue on how the Canucks did at the 202 draft, but I sense that when the judgment is made, it will be deemed a success, with at least one of the blueliners drafted turning into an NHL regular.

Not as dominant as Jake Sanderson. Not as big as Tyler Kleven. Not as fast as Eamon Powell. Not as right-handed as Brock Faber. It was too easy to overlook Truscott on this year’s USNTDP. But keep watching. Every game, he will show another element to his package that can help win a shift. He is a very good skater, if not quite a blazer. He can play in a shutdown role or help drive and extend an offensive zone possession with well-timed forays deep into the zone. He can surprise you if you pay attention. He isn’t done surprising observers. So, yeah, I’m a fan.

I get the appeal. He has an August 2002 birthdate and is already a physical specimen. He played a key role on a prep hockey hotbed in Minnesota that allowed him to play a ton and against a varied level of competition. On the other hand, he struggled to adapt in a limited stint in the USHL with Green Bay. He is heavy-footed and is likely to struggle to keep up when the game quickens. I expect him to learn to hold his own in a full season in the USHL, but what will happen after that, when he plays at the University of North Dakota? The Canucks may have to wait the full five years (one in the USHL, four in NCAA) on Kunz before he might be ready for pro hockey.

Slowly, slowly, without bringing much attention to themselves, the Edmonton Oilers are moving away from the CHL for their draft picks. After CHL heavy draft classes from 2015-18, in each of their last two draft classes, the Oilers have used only one pick each time on a CHL-based prospect. Last year that was second rounder Raphael Lavoie, this time the honors go to fourth rounder Tyler Tullio. I would like to think that it marks a further move away from their common practice during the pre-McDavid years of rushing prospects to the NHL. The bulk of the players they are drafting now are years away from turning pro, much less pulling on an NHL sweater. Also, and this may in fact be nothing, but the Oilers neglected to draft a goaltender after drafting at least one every year for the previous six drafts.

As for what they did draft, well, each of their six picks were used on forwards, and all but one is listed as wingers. If there is really anything that unites these six picks as prospects, it may well be that all of them have some intriguing tools, but these are raw players, whose wholes have not yet equaled the sum of their collective parts. All draft picks are diamonds in the rough, but this group is especially undefined.

Considering the lack of international experience from their back half picks, all three of whom are European, we have less of a read on those players, but there is at least enough upside with the Oilers’ first three picks – Holloway, Savoie, and Tullio – to be optimistic that these young men will be able to contribute to a successful organization down the line. And while this is at least two seasons premature, stylistically, Holloway could be a good fit on a line with Connor McDavid. He has the speed and the brawn to keep up with the superstar and help him find space to operate in the offensive zone.

We were, admittedly, very high on Savoie from the get-go, even keeping his name in consideration for the first round of our rankings. Ultimately, we were aware that his type – smaller guys who have a ton of offensive skill but lacking great skating chops – rarely go that high and so we left him just outside of the top 31. Literally. We ranked Savoie 32^nd on our final list. A holistic view of his skill set brings to mind Bobby Brink, who was selected in the second-round last year. Brink was more of a pure shooter, while Savoie is more exciting as a puck handler, but the type of role he would play on a team is largely similar. In fact, Savoie will be joining Brink at the University of Denver this season.

Forget the fact that the Oilers would have been more familiar with Savoie due to the winger’s playing in their backyard for Sherwood Park. There was not a single player with his upside available after the second round ended. Picking him at 100^th overall is pure larceny. Honorable mention as well to fifth rounder Tullio. He is great value that late and would not have looked out of place in the least going two rounds higher.

First, a note about Dylan Holloway, who went around 10 picks before we would have been ready to sign off on it. Provided he remains healthy, he will play in the NHL. We are less convinced that he could be a top six contributor due to his inability or unwillingness to vary his motor and slow the game down. As mentioned above, he could be a great stylistic fit with a McDavid type, and he was a no-doubt first rounder for what he already is. He might end up providing less than a few others who went after him in the first, but he will provide solid value. And if he does learn more subtlety, it could be great value. We are going with sixth rounder Engaras here because he was so completely off the radar as a 1999 born collegian at New Hampshire who was not a top performer in his junior days back in Sweden and was basically a depth forward on a middling Wildcats. We will have to pay more attention to him going forward, but his selection was certainly a head-scratcher.

While the amateur draft has not been the key driver of Vegas’ success since their debut three seasons ago, it has been a key contributor. The Golden Knights don’t get Tomas Tatar if they did not draft Nick Suzuki. They don’t get Mark Stone without first drafting Erik Brannstrom. And this doesn’t include their use of future picks to secure present-day assets. For as much love as their drafting has received, Cody Glass and Nicolas Hague are their only drafted players who played enough in the NHL for Vegas to lose their prospect eligibility. Every year we are provided with more evidence of their drafting prowess and it’s really been more hit and miss since that first draft than an unmitigated success. We are still a ways away from being able to accurately judge the Golden Knights’ drafting record, and we have reservations about the players selected this year, even if we are fully on board with their first two picks.

This draft class does follow some trends that have been prevalent in previous Vegas drafts. For one thing, the Golden Knights have never been shy about drafting Russians. Perhaps that is a remnant of former GM and current President of Hockey Operations George McPhee’s success with Russians from his previous gig as the GM of Alex Ovechkin’s Washington Capitals. Prior to this draft, two of the Golden Knights’ top four prospects – Ivan Morozov and Pavel Dorofeyev – were Russian. 2020 seventh rounder Maxim Marushev will not ascend to the top of the organization’s prospect ranking anytime soon, but the 21 year old put up very impressive numbers in the VHL (Russia’s second best men’s league) where he was second among all players with at least 30 games in points-per-game.

Another Vegas trend is the drafting of prep players. This started with their first draft with Jack Dugan, who is right up there with Morozov and Dorofeyev as a top prospect in the system. Peter Diliberatore was a prep product when Vegas selected him in 2018 and that honor fell to Ryder Donovan in 2019. This year, Vegas’ high schooler of the year is Jackson Hallum from Minnesota powerhouse St. Thomas Academy.

While we also think very highly of third rounder Lukas Cormier, we felt that Brisson was the top option of the players in the fourth tier of draft eligible (essentially picks 22-40). Some considered him challenging to scout, playing on a powerhouse Chicago Steel team last year, which laid waste to the USHL. He was often playing with fellow draft eligibles like Sam Colangelo, Sean Farrell, and Gunnarwolfe Fontaine, as well as USHL leading scorer Mathieu De St. Phalle. But Brisson also destroyed all comers at the WJAC tournament. And when he was away, Chicago’s offense ran dry.

Close watching of their team (which I was able to do) showed a player who can drive a line and lead the pace in the attack. His ability to make his linemates more effective is only partially reflected in his own numbers. If there is a downside with Brisson, it is that he is heading to Michigan this year to play for the Wolverines and looks like a three-year collegian. Vegas has shown the willingness to be patient, and they will have to be patient again.

We had questions aplenty about the Golden Knights’ final four picks. Swedish goalie Vikman and Russian overage forward Marushev make sense, even if they would not have been our picks. Noah Ellis was a bit out of left field as he didn’t show very much at all as a USHL rookie with Des Moines. Perhaps the Golden Knights see more untapped potential from the native Iowan, as he would not have been exposed to much high caliber talent in his youth hockey career. Perhaps they placed more weight in his impressive showing at the preseason Hlinka Gretzky Cup. And at pick 184, all that’s left are projects anyway. Hallum, on the other hand, was third rounder. His senior high school season was solid, but he had no real history of high-level production prior to that. He wasn’t even drafted into the USHL until this offseason, as the Green Bay Gamblers used a fifth-round pick on him. In other words, even knowing that he isn’t committed to a university (Michigan, with Brisson) until 2022-23, he was drafted higher in the NHL draft than he was in the USHL draft. I’ll all for drafting with your convictions, but it is likely that he would have remained available at least to Vegas’ next pick.

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 07 Oct 2020 12:01:28 +0000

It is way too early to assign grades to draft classes or draft picks, for obvious reasons, but we can assess how the knowledge and opinions we had line up with how 26 teams made scouting decisions earlier this evening.

Instead I would rather start by patting our hard-working scouting team on the collective backs, as 26 of our projected first round picks heard their names called this evening. Considering the amount of relative parity in the tier after pick 13 (Seth Jarvis to Carolina), there were 40 players would have had a projected argument to be selected in the first round. And that doesn’t even count the Hurricanes’ surprise selection of Russian overage winger Yegor Chinakhov, who we had ranked in the sixth-round range, while much of our peers didn’t have notes on at all.

Of the players we had in our top 31 who were not selected, none are overly surprising, even if we preferred them to others. John-Jason Peterka was inconsistent in league play. Noel Gunler is enigmatic and has a poor reputation vis-à-vis coachability. Jan Mysak was tough to scout having spent the 2019 portion of the schedule playing in his native Czech Republic before coming over to the OHL in the second half and succeeding despite going through some adjustments. Ryan O’Rourke was good, but not great, in a lot of areas and might be someone you like without loving. Ty Smilanic is similar, but as a forward, and there have been whispers about locker room issues. They should all go early in the second round in the morning.

We will get to the guys we didn’t foresee later on, but first a note about the top 13 being very predictable. Our top 11 ranked players were the first 11 players chosen. I had thought that the bigger tiers of players might lead to more trading, but there was next to none, with only Calgary making a pair of trades to move down twice, from 19 to 22 and then to 24. A good move for the Flames to get two extra third round picks to replenish a very shallow system. Not to mention, Connor Zary, whose average feet likely kept him from being selected 10 spots higher.

I expect the top three picks of Lafreniere to the Rangers, Byfield to the Kings, and Stutzle to the Senators, to be given every opportunity to play in the NHL right away, with an outside shot at Marco Rossi jumping right to the Wild’s lineup as well.

Lucas Raymond
Foto: Maxim Thoré / BILDBYRÅN

The next group was shaken up slightly by Detroit not selecting Cole Perfetti, to whom they had been strongly connected for months. We actually had Lucas Raymond ranked fourth overall anyway, so the pick made sense, even if it mucked up a great number of mock drafts. It seems as if more than a few other teams had also expected Detroit to take Perfetti, as he stayed on the board until Winnipeg ended the torture by selecting him tenth overall. He is not nearly the same skater, but he could eventually have a Brayden Point-type impact on the Jets.

Buffalo also gave us a bit of a surprise, although considering we had zero reason to expect anything in particular from first-time GM Kevyn Adams, we should not have had any expectations. Jack Quinn was in that next tier outside of the top three, but it was still surprising to see him selected before teammate Marco Rossi, who led the entire CHL in scoring in his draft year. The Austrian was taken with the next pick, by Minnesota. As hinted at above, don’t be surprised if Rossi is given the chance to win a job in the NHL right away.

About the Russians…we knew Askarov would be selected early, and I figured he would either go to New Jersey with their first pick, Minnesota, or Nashville. Nashville took him and we know he is the Pekka Rinne exit plan, with Saros the stop gap/future 1B. Amirov was a likely first rounder with upper level skills. He went at the high end of our anticipated range for him, but he fits the Maple Leafs’ scouting mantra of skills and smarts. We thought if there was a third first round Russian prospect, it would be strong all-around center Marat Khusnutdinov. That thought was put on its ear after the Rangers traded up to 19 to draft right-handed defender Braden Schneider.

Without proof, I am imagining that the Devils were anticipating getting the Brandon blueliner and jumped on an incredibly rangy Russian defender named Shakir Mukhamadullin, who has a mature defensive game, having spent his age 17 season in the KHL, but about whom there were questions as to his offensive upside. Being a 6-4” defenseman who can skate well will always get some people’s attention, but there were serious questions about his offensive upside. Perhaps he has benefited from the late draft, as he has six points through his first 13 games in the KHL this season.

I can accept that we were low on Mukhamadullin, ranking him as a 3^rd rounder. But then Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen stepped to the microphone and shocked the hockey world. I can’t remember ever being this surprised by a first-round pick. He drafted Russian winger Yegor Chinakhov, a 19-year-old who was passed over last year altogether, becoming the first overager taken in the first round since the Kings took Tanner Pearson in 2012. We had Chinakhov ranked 171^st, and many other scouting services didn’t have him listed at all. He has solid offensive tools and understands the game at a mature level, but he would likely have stayed on the board for another 50-60 picks if Columbus would have had a pick in the second round. Instead, their next selection will not be until 78, and that was only the result of the day’s earlier trade of Josh Anderson to Montreal for Max Domi. Chinakhov was apparently the guy they had targeted, could not find a trade for a second rounder, and could not bear to risk waiting until their third pick for him. He produced nicely in the Russian junior league last year and is off to a solid start this year in the KHL, but to say the pick was out of left field is to gravely overestimate the size of ballparks. Then again, he was our highest ranked player who was not selected last season.

Justin Barron

Of the other players we did not have as first rounders, Colorado pick Justin Barron was considered, but kept off due largely to medical concerns. The Avalanche have better access to his health records than we do. Flyers pick Tyson Foerster would likely have been on our list if it were not for his heavy skating. His other skills are first round caliber. Skating is one of the more improvable skills, though, and better physical conditioning and technical training, could improve that area of his game. Finally, we were simply too low on Lukas Reichel. We stand by ranking countryman John-Jason Peterka ahead of Reichel, but perhaps 21 spots were too much.

We were a little bit too low on Dylan Holloway and Rodion Amirov. Holloway has the tools but just needs to learn to alter his pace and not always rev at 100% in order to be more effective. The Oilers will need patience, but he can be a rare power forward if he can. Amirov is simply exceptionally talented. He struggled to establish a foothold in the KHL last year but has seemingly found his footing early this season. We might have been wise to reevaluate him based on early season results.

Beyond those who fell to Day Two, there wasn’t anybody who was taken significantly lower than we thought was their rightful range, with the possible exception of Brendan Brisson going 29^th to Vegas and Mavrik Bourque, 30^th to Dallas. Between Brisson and last year’s first rounder, Peyton Krebs, the Golden Knights are placing their future eggs in the hands of gifted playmakers. Bourque plays a shifty and skilled style that can crack open a defense and that has been lacking from the Dallas organization for a while, Stanley Cup Finals appearance or not.

I will say that there were two late first rounders who, while we had them ranked in the first round, were not convinced that they would end up being drafted this early. Jake Neighbours was drafted 26^th by St. Louis. He is not an exciting prospect, but he does so much well and plays a moderately heavy game. His ceiling is not that high, but his floor is, and he will help St. Louis continue to compete, on an affordable contract, while the league’s finances work to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, Ozzy Wiesblatt, the last pick of the night, to San Jose. Smaller than Neighbours, but much more of a pain to play against, Weisblatt, he can be compared stylistically to a Brendan Gallagher. Also, do yourself a favor and check out his backstory. Google it.

Finally, a few thoughts (mostly) unrelated to who went where and who didn’t.

While I naturally prefer to attend the draft in person, and very much look forward to being in the building next June/July, the NHL largely did a very good job presented the virtual event. They cannot be held accountable for some video quality issues in some of the draft pick homes. I especially liked the visual of seeing some teams who used their home dressing room as their draft day war room. A very sharp look.

Very nice touch by Winnipeg bringing in Dale Hawerchuk’s widow, Crystal, to announce their pick. Dale Hawerchuk embodied the type of impact a great player can have on a community, and that a community can have on a great player. A very thoughtful, and emotional moment. Hawerchuk passed far too soon. F cancer.

Speaking of F’ing cancer, I am not alone in absolutely loving the Senators’ use of Alex Trebek, currently in his own battle, to announce Ottawa’s first pick, third overall selection Tim Stutzle, in the form of a Jeopardy segment. Clever, entertaining, and frankly, awesome.

Finally, congratulations to Quinton Byfield, taking second overall by Los Angeles, the highest ever drafted Black player, or (to my knowledge) any player of color. The NHL, and specifically, NHL players, showed the ability and presence of mind to pause the action this summer after the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin (~45 minutes north of my home) around six weeks ago. The lack of diversity in the NHL, and the sport of hockey writ large has long been a sore point for the sport, but we can hope that the stand taken by players at the time, coupled with the organization of the Hockey Diversity Alliance, and the emergence of future stars such as Byfield, can help turn the phrase “Hockey is for Everyone” into a reality, instead of mostly empty marketing.

Congratulations to the 31 young men drafted in the first round. 185 more will follow on Wednesday morning. We will continue tracking the draft, and after the dust settles, will provide complete reviews of every draft class, to finally put a bow on the 2019-20 season. Thank you for taking a part in this ride with us.

Jimmy Hamrin — Fri, 02 Oct 2020 12:16:22 +0000

Oskar Magnusson is an intense, hard-working player with skill. He can be used in various situations and do a good job up and down the lineup. As for the NHL I see him more as a bottom six forward prospect as he lacks elite puck skills and hockey sense.

A big plus in his game is that he likes to attack the center of the ice and he goes hard to the net. The big minus for me is the combination of that style with the fact that his skating has limitations and his being undersized as well. For that reason, I think his potential to become a regular NHL player is quite small, but I will not count him out as I like his competitive and fearless play. He plays with heart and will take any role the coach gives him.

For the upcoming draft, he will be a good bet to make in the later rounds and a bad bet in the top three rounds.

Oskar Magnusson	2020 NHL Draft Eligible
Position: LW, Shoots L	H/W: 5-10", 165 lbs
Stats 19/20 (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)	Malmo Redhawks, SHL (4-0-0-0-0)
	Malmo Redhawks J20, SuperElit (38-22-26-48-40)
	Malmo Redhawks J18, J18 Allsvenskan (1-1-1-2-2)
	Sweden U18, Gretzky Hlinka Cup (5-0-0-0-0)

Skating: Magnusson is an explosive skater but with technical issues. He skates with a short stride and needs to use a lot of energy to get to high speed and stay there. His legs are always moving, and he needs to work hard to be effective with his skating as it will not give him anything for free. He has good balance and agility and much of his game relies on his skating and intensity as he uses it to win puck battles and to create offense. His skating can look impressive at the junior level and he can carry and travel well with the puck there. The technical issues will not translate well to higher levels as he will not be able to use his skating as a weapon the same way when the opponents can match his top speed. Grade: 50

Shot: Magnusson has a good release and is an okay goal scorer. He scores and shoots mostly from inside the circles but has also been used as a shooter from outside the circles on the power play. His wrist shot is his best weapon. Last season he scored 22 goals on 103 shots which probably is not a sustainable scoring pace long term. The way he creates and scores goals will be harder to do at senior level as well. That said, I like his wrist shot and I think it can be useful if he works on the velocity and get his release to be even quicker. Grade: 55

Skills: Magnusson has some strong puck skills. He has good control at high speed and in tight traffic. He can travel well with the puck and covers it well when he skates around a defender. His playmaking skills are quite good in tight situations. While he skates with the puck, he sees the ice and is good at finding teammates in the slot and making those passes, especially from behind the net and into the slot. His puck skills are not elite though he is efficient in a simple way while rarely showing creativity with the puck. His puck control and deking ability one-on-one are not spectacular in any way. Grade: 55

Smarts: Magnusson is a hard-working forward that plays with intensity and shows strong instincts, both offensively and defensively. He can be used effectively on both the power play and the penalty kill. I would say that he projects better as a penalty killer than as a strong power play performer. His intensive style of play and good reads in the checking part of the game make him a strong penalty killer. His game away from the puck is good in the sense that he reads the game well and can win puck battles by being in the right place to use his tenacious checking. Magnusson’s vision with the puck is good, but not elite. He drives and creates mostly with speed and he likes to go to the center of the offensive zone. He cannot control the pace and is not a stronger driver of offensive play and plays a little too much with the puck trying to attack the net himself. Grade: 55

Physicality: Magnusson plays hard and is relentless in his way to battle for loose pucks and he is also strong in the tight areas. He likes to crash the net and is not afraid of physical contact. The downside is his lack of size rather than his lack of heart. Being 5-10” with technical flaws in his skating will probably make him inefficient physically at higher levels. He will have a hard time holding off opponents and he will not be able to beat them with speed either. Grade: 45

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 52.75

A note on the 20-80 scale used above. We look at five attributes (skating, shooting, puck skills, hockey IQ and physicality) for skaters and six for goalies (athleticism/quickness, compete/temperament, vision/play reading, technique/style, rebound control and puck handling). Each individual attribute is graded along the 20-80 scales, which includes half-grades. The idea is that a projection of 50 in a given attribute meant that our observer believed that the player could get to roughly NHL average at that attribute at maturity.

Ryan Wagman and Brock Otten — Sat, 26 Sep 2020 13:48:42 +0000

I know, I know. You are not here for the preamble, so I will keep it extremely brief. For this mock, we are only looking at the part of the first round for which we know the order. That is, the top 29 picks, split amongst the teams that are no longer contending for the Stanley Cup. The 30th pick will go to the team that loses in the Stanley Cup Finals, and the Champions will pick 31st. Notably, Western Conference champs Dallas own their first round pick, while Eastern Conference champs Tampa’s pick belongs to San Jose as a result of the Barclay Goodrow trade. For the sake of timing, we are completing this mock with the presumption that the Lightning, with the better regular season pedigree, and one win away, will win.

We had to wait out a pandemic and two stages of a draft lottery to get here. In the first stage, we saw the third pick going to Ottawa, the pick they received from the currently hapless San Jose Sharks in the Erik Karlsson trade. The second pick was secured by the Los Angeles Kings. The first pick was reserved for a placeholder team, one of the eight teams who appeared in the play-in round but could not break through to the official first round of the postseason.

The picks made here are not based on insider intelligence, but through an understanding of the players available, and our knowledge of team tendencies and needs.

Let’s Draft!

1. New York Rangers - Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)

There is a very reasonable argument to be made that the highest upside among the 2020 draft class actually belongs to Quinton Byfield. I have time for that argument, considering positional value (Byfield is a center and Lafreniere is a let winger), age (Lafreniere is a late ’01 born, while Byfield has an August 2002 birthdate, giving Byfield 10 extra month of physical development to come), and size (Lafreniere has good size, Byfield is a physical specimen). That said, I would not hesitate in the slightest to select Lafreniere here.
Lafreniere is ready to step right into an NHL roster and play a top six role on day one. The six years of team control that the Rangers would have would all be valuable years and they would be starting immediately. Byfield, on the other hand, may be ready to play in the NHL right now, but he would likely need a season or so before he can start to impose himself on the game. This is basically a parallel to the two players’ respective roles on the Canadian WJC roster. Both made the team, but Lafreniere was the tournament MVP, while Byfield barely saw the ice by the end. Although a winger, Lafreniere will soon be making his linemates better, much like John Tavares used to do across town in Long Island. RW

2. Los Angeles Kings – Tim Stutzle, LW, Adler Mannheim (DEL)

After Lafreniere, the gap in expected value between Stutzle and Byfield is slight at best. The Kings organization has a vested interest in German hockey, holding ownership over the Eisbaren Berlin franchise. At minimum, that should give them added comfort in terms of what they would be getting in Stutzle, likely more so than any other team. Stutzle’s game works at top pace, and he has enough elements to be plugged in anywhere in the lineup right away and work his way into a top line role in due time. As an added bonus, Stutzle will be able to maintain game shape in Germany until the NHL is up and running once again. RW

3. Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks) - Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)

We know that Lafreniere will not be available at this slot, giving Ottawa the easiest selection of the draft here. They simply take whoever is left on the board between Lafreniere, Stutze and Quinton Byfield. There is a pretty clear drop off in expected future value after these three in this first round. In this scenario, Byfield falls in Ottawa’s lap, and they will not be complaining to get a player they could begin grooming to be their future top line center. Physically overwhelming at the junior level, Byfield has the tools to continue dominating at the NHL level, although many believe that he needs to process the game a gear quicker to allow for all of his tools to play to their capacity at the top level. Ottawa will need more patience with Byfield than the Rangers or Kings would need with Lafreniere or Stutzle, but the payoff will be worth it. RW

4. Detroit Red Wings – Cole Perfetti, C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

The Red Wings are the biggest losers with the draft lottery outcomes. After one of the worst seasons by any team this century, they certainly had to be hoping for a shot at one of the top three, even if the top pick was out of reach. Even though there is a drop off after the top three, the Red Wings will still get a high-end player at #4. There have been numerous rumors connecting the Wings with Perfetti, who has been playing just up the road from Detroit in Saginaw. There are good arguments to be had for Detroit to pick one of the big Swedes in this draft class, but Perfetti offers a better organizational fit for Detroit as the top center outside of Byfield. There is also something to the comp between Perfetti and Brayden Point, one of Detroit GM Steve Yzerman’s biggest draft prizes from his time atop the Tampa Bay organization. Patience will be important for Detroit with Perfetti – as it would be for anyone available at this point in this scenario – but he has first line center upside. RW

5. Ottawa Senators - Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP (USHL)

The inclination here is to connect the Senators with one of the big Swedes considering the team’s history with drafting franchise changers from Sweden (Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson) and both Raymond and Alexander Holtz would be good fits at this stage of the draft. But before making the easy choice, I should point out that the Senators’ scouting staff is not at all the same as the staff that picked Karlsson and Alfredsson. The team has only drafted two players out of Sweden in the previous four drafts. If the Senators go to Sweden it wouldn’t be crazy, and they would more than likely draft Raymond in that case. But with Byfield already a Senator in this scenario, I like them drafting the top defenseman in the draft class. Sanderson and Drysdale are very close in our rankings, a matter of taste, really, and I think Sanderson is more likely here as the Senators under Pierre Dorion tend to go with bigger, more physical players. Sanderson has a clear physical edge on Drysdale at this stage in their respective careers. Sanderson is moving on to North Dakota next season, where he will be playing alongside former Sens’ first rounder Jacob Bernard-Docker. That could be the start of a long-term relationship between the two high end blueline prospects. RW

6. Anaheim Ducks - Jamie Drysdale, D, Erie Otters (OHL)

Drysdale is both arguably the best player available in this scenario, and fits a clear need for the Ducks, who have seen their once vaunted blueline depth dwindle in recent years due to some trades that didn’t exactly work out. The Ducks haven’t used a top pick on an OHL’er since drafting Max Jones in the 2016 first round, but Drysdale would bring a new dimension to their transition game, generally helping make Anaheim a faster paced team. He could reasonably be ready for the NHL by 2021-22. RW

7. New Jersey Devils – Lucas Raymond, LW, Frolunda HC (SHL)

A very good outcome for the Devils, Raymond would give the young team a third potential game breaking talent to go along with their two recent first overall picks Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Raymond is a truly dynamic puck player who can make things happen on any given shift and has excelled playing against youth, even if he has struggled to assert himself playing against men in the SHL. There are scenarios where Raymond is already off the board a few picks before New Jersey gets the chance, so they will take this if things play out like this. If Raymond is gone, I see them going to the other Swede, Alexander Holtz over one of the defensemen taken fifth and sixth. RW

8. Buffalo Sabres - Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa 67s (OHL)

The Sabres are once again entering a new regime. The Jason Botterill anti-CHL drafting is a thing of the past. New GM Kevyn Adams has no track record to look to for speculation about how the team might draft. There is a general sense though that metrics will play a deeper role in their selections, especially considering the mass layoffs among the Buffalo scouting staff. So the player who le the OHL in assists and points would be a good fit in that regards. Rossi’s overall hustle and grit would also help make Buffalo tougher to play against, giving opponents a second line after Eichel’s to worry about. RW

9. Minnesota Wild – Yaroslav Askarov, G, Neva St. Petersburg (VHL)

While not as much of a wild card at the draft as the new-look Sabres, this will also be the first draft for new Minnesota GM Bill Guerin, who had been an assistant GM with Pittsburgh for the five seasons prior to this one. He would certainly have seen the value of drafting goalies, but the Penguins had only one first round pick in his time as AGM. The Wild also have new Co-Directors of Amateur Scouting in P.J. Fenton and Darren Yopyk. Had the Penguins given their 2020 first rounder to Minnesota instead of deferring to their 2021 pick, I might have gone in a different direction here, but given the choice between a potential franchise goaltender (Askarov), and a few wingers who project as top six (Anton Lundell, Alexander Holtz, Jack Quinn), I see Guerin and company going with the one who can help define a franchise. RW

10. Winnipeg Jets – Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)

I get the sense that the Jets would sign off on this scenario in a heartbeat. It would not be hard to imagine an alternate scenario wherein Holtz is off the board at pick 5/6. Three years ago, the Jets drafted a big, skilled winger playing in Sweden named Kristian Vesalainen. Vesalainen has been jerked around since being drafted, spending time in the NHL, AHL, KHL and Liiga. Holtz is not the physical specimen that Vesalainen was, but his offensive instincts are more refined, and his draft year production put Vesalainen’s to shame. Holtz’ toolkit is robust and deep such that even though he is best known for his finishing skills, he can contribute in all facets. He may not be far at all from the NHL. RW

11. Nashville Predators – Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa 67s (OHL)

With the level of talent still available levelling off, I see Poile and company looking for a player who can help sooner than later. While there aren’t any immediate contributors available, Quinn may be pretty close. The Predators showed no compunction in going to the OHL for their first rounder last year, and Philip Tomasino has taken huge steps forward in his first post draft year. Adding Quinn to a collection of prospects up front including Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, Egor Afanasyev, Rem Pitlick and others would give the Predators more offensive skill on the way than perhaps at any other time in franchise history. RW

12. Florida Panthers – Braden Schneider, D, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Dale Tallon is on the way out in South Florida and TBD is taking his place. With that much uncertainty surrounding the organization, I would generally proceed with a strict “Best Player Available” mantra. There are three forwards and two defenders who are all pretty close in terms of expected future value. In this case, I don’t mind going heavy on positional need, as most of the Panthers’ top prospects after 20191 first rounder, goaltender Spencer Knight are forwards, while the system is very shallow on the blueline. The organization is especially shallow on the right side of the blue line, so I will give the edge to Braden Schneider here over lefty Kaiden Guhle. But in truth, either would be a solid fit. RW

13. Carolina Hurricanes (from Toronto Maple Leafs) – Anton Lundell, C, HIFK (Liiga)

If the Hurricanes, under own Tom Dundon, are adamantly opposed to drafting a defenseman in the first round, I have a hard time imaging them springing for a goalie either. With three forwards of note to consider, I see them drafting the Finn Anton Lundell over either of Seth Jarvis or Dawson Mercer as the Hurricanes and Finnish prospects have been de rigueur for quite some time now. Also, Lundell is very good, plays a mature, NHL near-ready game, and has the versatility to play anywhere in the lineup, up or down the lines, at center or on the wing. I could also see the Hurricanes being the high team on Russian forward Rodion Amirov, but Lundell’s overall game, predicated on skills and smarts, would be hard to resist here. RW

14. Edmonton Oilers – Seth Jarvis, C, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Look for the Oilers to continue to build organizational depth up front, as the team has long had a hard time putting the puck in the net without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. The German connection could be a thing if the Oilers were interested in JJ Peterka but recall that Draisaitl was drafted out of the WHL. Instead, I see them staying closer to home. Both Portland’s Seth Jarvis and Kamloops’ Connor Zary could be good fits here. While Zary could be a good fit in the way he can help control a slower tempo, with a speedy star like McDavid on the roster, the faster option is a better fit. Jarvis could be moved to the wing to play in the top six, or kept up the middle, allowing Edmonton to eventually move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a permanent top six wing position. Either way, Jarvis will make the Oilers that much more dangerous game in and game out. RW

15. Toronto Maple Leafs (from Pittsburgh Penguins) – Rodion Amirov, LW, Salavat Yulaev Ufa (KHL)

Given Toronto’s stated preference for speed, skill, and smarts in their prospects, some of the available options at this point are not great fits, such as defender Kaiden Guhle, or forwards Connor Zary or Dawson Mercer. The Leafs could really go in many different directions here, including trading down a ew spots to gain additional assets, but if I am keeping the pick, the best fits Toronto’s profile is Russian forward Amirov. He is physically underdeveloped, but his skill game is top six worthy, he reads the ice at a very mature level and can play at a good clip as well. Considering Toronto’s recent run of free agent signings from the KHL (Ozhiganov, Mikheyev, Barabanov), we know they are comfortable with bets on Russian talent. RW

16. Montreal Canadiens – Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)

One of the reasons I have respected how Montreal has drafted in the Bergevin era, is that they are willing to place bets on players from leagues outside the norm. Last year alone, they drafted players playing in Denmark and AAA in Alberta. This pick would not meet that definition, but it is a home run swing, nonetheless. Once Lapierre’s injury was reported to have been a neck injury and not a second concussion, some worries over his future were alleviated. There is also the slow start to his year to be considered, but coming into the season, many had assumed that the skilled playmaker would be long gone by this point. If Lapierre recovers his previous trajectory, this would be a big win. RW

17. Chicago Blackhawks – John-Jason Peterka, LW/RW, EHC Munchen (DEL)

Chicago would jump on Askarov if the Russian netminder somehow fell this far. Seeing as how he is not, and the strength of the system is defensemen – 7 of the club’s top 15 prospects is a blueliner, and that count doesn’t include Boqvist – look for the Blackhawks to add scoring depth. Two years ago, they signed Dominik Kahun as a free agent out of EHC Munchen in Germany. That worked out pretty well. Peterka is more of a scorer than the playmaking Kahun, but he also has a very reasonable top six projection. RW

18. New Jersey Devils (from Arizona Coyotes) – Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

With Lucas Raymond already under wraps, and another first rounder coming up, the Devils can afford to diversify their approach, hearken back to the drafting of Ty Smith, and draft another defenseman from the WHL in the middle of the first round. Guhle is a much different style of defender than Smith but could be a compliment to him as the other left handed defender in the top four. Guhle skates well and is one of the more physical defenders in this draft class. RW

19. Calgary Flames – Connor Zary, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)

The Flames need offensive talent for a second wave, especially if Johnny Gaudreau’s days are getting shorter in Calgary. Other than 2019 first rounder Jakob Pelletier, the cupboard is conspicuously empty. They could be opportunistic in this scenario and grab a future top six center in Connor Zary. His footspeed prevents him from being taken higher, but he reads the game very well and plays a positioning and puck skill game that doesn’t rely on being faster than opponents. Winger Dawson Mercer would also be a very worthy possibility here. RW

20. New Jersey Devils (from Vancouver Canucks) – Dawson Mercer, RW, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)

In this scenario, the Devils have already stocked up their system with Lucas Raymond and Kaiden Guhle. In adding Mercer to their group, they get another talented winger who could team up in a few years with recent high-end picks like Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Michael McLeod. Mercer isn’t as flashy as Raymond – or as the centers – but he has excellent touch with the puck, and a highly advanced sense of where to be in the offensive zone to generate the most positive impact for his team. The WJC gold medalist from the 2020 event, he could be ready for the NHL faster than most other players still available. RW

21. Columbus Blue Jackets – Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL)

If Columbus, which has not had their full complement of picks in recent years, as they have pushed to be a competitive playoff team, can be said to have a type, it is for instinctive forwards who play versatile games that could fit up and down the lineup. If there is a player available right now who could follow in the footsteps of Alexandre Texier and Liam Foudy, Bourque fits the bill. He has high end puck skills and instincts and plays a gritty game that maximizes his tools. The system is currently weaker on the blueline, but the draft class is forward heavy and those who should be considered in this range are already off the board (Schneider, Guhle). The dropoff in forward talent between this pick and when Columbus picks again (4th round) is far steeper than the dropoff among blueline prospects. RW

22. New York Rangers (from Carolina Hurricanes) – Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)

Contrary to popular belief, the New York Rangers 2020 draft class will be judged on more than just what they get out of presumptive first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere. I often advocate for a diversified portfolio when teams make multiple picks in the first round, but four of the top 6 prospects in the Rangers’ system prior to the draft were defensemen, and the forwards available here are better anyway. Mysak fits in the Rangers’ worldview, considering their heavy lean towards European talents in the first round of late. While the skilled Czech pivot spent the second half of the season in the OHL with Hamilton, the first half of his draft year was played out against men in his homeland. The relative success of Filip Chytil should give the Rangers’ brass comfort in the Czech option and Mysak has outproduced his strong skill set for a while now. RW

23. Philadelphia Flyers – Dylan Holloway, RW, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA/Big 10)

Both the Ron Hextall and Chuck Fletcher regimes have been very comfortable scouting the college bound talents and seven of the club’s top 15 prospects heading into the draft spent last year playing NCAA hockey. As such, the club would have had many extra opportunities to scout Holloway, who spent his first year of eligibility playing for the Badgers, occasionally outshining recent first round picks like Alex Turcotte (LA), Cole Caufield (Mtl), and K’Andre Miller (NYR). Holloway plays a powerful North-South game with speed and skill. When he remembers to slow the game down, his non-stop motor helps his tools play up. He can fit in an energy role if top six spots are unavailable. RW

24. Washington Capitals – Lukas Reichel, LW, Eisbaren Berlin (DEL)

Outside of 2019 first rounder Connor McMichael, the Capitals have a pretty downtrodden system, with a clear lack in offensive talent. Never a team to shy away from European prospects, Reichel is one of the players that could benefit from the late draft. The German dynamo has started his 2020-21 season very strong in international play, continuing on his upward trajectory in his “natural” draft year. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts with Reichel, and he might be no more than one year away from pushing for an NHL job. RW

25. Colorado Avalanche – Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea (SHL)

The Avalanche have done well in recent drafts by just seeing where the chips fall in front of them and then taking advantage of the best talent available. Thinking back to how Alex Newhook had some doubters at the time because of his being prominently left off some Canadian teams in international competition. Perhaps a similar bit of context will make it easier for the Avalanche to pull the trigger on Noel Gunler, who is seemingly always a late cut on various Team Sweden rosters. Gunler’s offensive tools are all high end and with a bit of glue to pull it all together over the next few years as part of an increased role with Lulea in the SHL, could turn out to be one of the best value picks of the entire 2020 draft class. RW

26. St. Louis Blues – Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago Steel (USHL)

St. Louis has spread the love in terms of where they have drafted from in recent years, although they have seemed to shy away from Finland in recent years. That said, the system is altogether lacking in high end talent at this time, with many of their best having graduated to the NHL. Brisson offers an exciting, point-producing talent who will require patience as he heads of the play for the Michigan Wolverines as soon as Big 10 hockey picks back up. Brisson has line driving capabilities but will need time to mature physically. RW

27. Anaheim Ducks (from Boston Bruins) – Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago Steel (USHL)

The Ducks already have a defenseman in this scenario, in Jamie Drysdale. If they take Colangelo now, it is because they suspect he might not be around for their next pick (#36) as the Chicago winger is one of the few power forwards in this draft class. Further, the Ducks always take players with connections to the Steel (Jack Badini in 2017, Blake McLaughlin in 2018, and Jackson Lacombe in 2019). The Ducks still value players who play heavy games as in the golden days of the Pacific Division and Colangelo has enough skill with his sandpaper to fit in the more modern game. RW

28. Ottawa Senators (from New York Islanders) – Ridly Greig, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

In our scenario here, the Senators have already drafted Quinton Byfield and Jake Sanderson. Anything else is gravy, really. On poutine. The Senators under Pierre Dorion like players who are hard to play against. I can’t say that I disagree with that preference, even in the first round, where upside is king. At the very least, a skilled player who is tough to play against can find a home down the lineup if he doesn’t reach his perceived ceiling. A late bloomer, in the sense that he needed a few months into his draft year to find his stride, Greig is certainly tough to play against, despite his still growing frame. Greig is among those who have moved over to Europe (in his case, Sweden) to stay in game shape during the COVID-delays. RW

29. Vegas Golden Knights (from New York Islanders) – Helge Grans, D, Malmo J20 (SuperElit)

The Golden Knights may be among the top half dozen teams in the NHL, but their organizational depth betrays their expansion team status. Only three years into their existence, they were so good so soon that they have already traded away the bulk of the future advantage that similar teams tend to receive. A big right-handed shooter who could have given his draft stock a tangible boost with a good U18 performance, Grans plays a tight two way game, although his off puck play is currently more advanced than his offensive ability. If he can meld all of his tools together, he profiles as a strong option for the second pairing at maturity. RW

30. Dallas Stars – Kasper Simontaival, RW, Tappara U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga)

Edmonton Oil Kings’ center Jake Neighbours feels like a Dallas type pick, but this team really needs some dynamic players in their lineup. Someone who can dangle through some opponents and has a knack for scoring. This team has long honed in on Finland and Simontaival certainly knows how to put the puck in the net, owning one of the most lethal shots in the draft class. He would offer a different look to anything currently in the system. RW

31. San Jose Sharks (from Tampa Bay Lightning) – Justin Barron, D, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

After pick 20 or so, the talent level of available prospects starts to flatten out considerably. So, you go with a player that makes you comfortable. Barron’s fans suspect he would have been long off the board by this point had he not missed a large chunk of the season to a scary blood clot issue. Now recovered, he could bring the Sharks a well-rounded, right-handed shot from the blueline who can take care of things in both ends. San Jose has heavily scouted the QMJHL in recent years, too, so they will surely have a good read on Barron. RW

32. Detroit Red Wings - Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

It would certainly be a bit of a surprise if Perreault falls outside of the first round, but scouts are definitely concerned about the consistency of his effort level at both ends of the rink and the ability to get the most out of his skill set. One of the best goal scorers available, his upside is quite high and it’s why he could easily slot inside the top 20 too. The Wings snag him with the first pick of the second round, envisioning a potential powerplay set up that includes Perreault as the triggerman alongside the likes of Perfetti and Zadina. BO

33. Ottawa Senators - Ryan O’Rourke, D, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

O’Rourke is best described as a throwback style defender, whose game would have fit in well during the 1980’s-90’s. He plays the game hard and makes the opposition earn every inch of ice against him. However, his offensive upside may have been hidden given his role with the Greyhounds last year. His decision making with the puck is high end and he projects as a top four two-way defender in the future. Between the selection of Jake Sanderson in the first round and O’Rourke in the second, Ottawa is set to become a very difficult team to play against in a few years. BO

34. San Jose Sharks - Luke Evangelista, RW, London Knights (OHL)

Might be a bit of a shock to see Evangelista drafted ahead of a few other higher ranked OHL players, but don’t sleep on this breakout star for the London Knights. There are certainly NHL teams who see him as a potential first round selection and put a ton of stock into the London and Dale Hunter development program. San Jose would have seen a lot of Luke last year while checking in on the progress of Ryan Merkley and are likely to have been impressed with what they saw. A well-rounded winger, Evangelista’s potential as a playmaker could be higher than currently envisioned. BO

35. Los Angeles Kings - Dylan Peterson, C, USNTDP (USHL)

Peterson is the kind of player who NHL teams love a lot more than the independent scouting community. A big center who skates extremely well, Peterson profiles as both a potential playmaker and shutdown center, depending on how his development in college goes. No doubt, scouts would have taken notice of his improvement over the course of last year; the cancellation of the World U18’s likely hurt his chance of creeping into the first round with a strong performance. However, looking at the make-up of their division and conference rivals in the West, the Kings know that they will eventually need big forwards who can skate like Peterson. BO

36. Anaheim Ducks - Tyson Foerster, RW, Barrie Colts (OHL)

After taking Jamie Drysdale in round one, the Ducks turned their attention to goal scoring in the second round by selecting Barrie winger Tyson Foerster. Armed with one of the best shots in the draft, Foerster is lethal on the powerplay. His lack of a dynamic skating stride keeps him out of the first round, but his potential is too much to turn down in the early second. As he works to improve his pace and round out his game, Foerster could easily become a top six forward at the NHL level. BO

37. Nashville Predators (from New Jersey Devils) - Tyler Kleven, D, USNTDP (USHL)

No question, Tyler Kleven is another defender who NHL scouts are bound to like more than scouting agencies or independent scouts. While his offensive upside may be limited, the combination of his size, skating ability, and physicality, makes him a good candidate to develop into a modern-day shutdown defender. Nashville seeks to re-emerge as a tough team to play against again, a moniker that they held firmly a decade ago, but have lost touch with in recent years. This has caused a slide down the standings. Kleven, along with Dante Fabbro, can give the Preds those rocks on the back end that can allow players like Josi space to roam. BO

38. Buffalo Sabres - William Wallinder, D, Modo J20 (SuperElit)

Definitely a polarizing player for this year’s draft, Wallinder has physical tools in spades. A high-end mover from the back-end, he can dazzle at times and this has some scouts wondering about his high end potential if they are patient. The word patient is used because Wallinder is still learning to utilize his skill set, a fact that has other scouts questioning his IQ and vision on the ice. Whether you like him or not, defenders like Wallinder always go high in the draft because all it takes is for one franchise to believe in his potential. Buffalo, hoping to hit the jackpot, rolls the dice on the big Swede. BO

39. Minnesota Wild - Luke Tuch, LW, USNTDP (USHL)

When his brother Alex was draft eligible, and subsequently a first round selection, he was universally ranked in that first round range. While Luke does not appear to have the offensive upside of his brother, he is ranked as a possible second round selection by many publications (even if we have him well outside that range). Given Alex’s strong playoff performance this year and that bubble hockey proved that size, skill, and toughness still wins in the playoffs, look for Luke to be drafted earlier rather than later. After rolling the dice on Askarov in round one, Minnesota looks to secure a sure-fire NHL player here. BO

40. Winnipeg Jets - Jack Finley, C, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)

One of the biggest players in the draft and also one of the youngest available, Finley’s raw potential is most certainly alluring. A potentially dominant playmaker down low once he fills out, Finley is a player who was starting to trend upwards before the WHL season was halted. Jack Finley’s father, long time NHL defender Jeff Finley, is a scout with Winnipeg, so there are obvious connections to the organization on top of him being a high upside selection. BO

41. Carolina Hurricanes (from New York Rangers) - Ty Smilanic, LW, USNTDP (USHL)

Smilanic is best described as an enigma because depending on what night you see him on, he could be one of the best or one of the worst players on the ice. If he can iron out some of those consistency issues, he could develop into a high-end offensive producer at the NHL level; no one doubts his skill level with the puck. Carolina, looking to add another skilled winger to their prospect pool, takes a chance on Smilanic. BO

42. Nashville Predators - Topi Niemela, D, Karpat (Liiga)

After taking Tyler Kleven with their first second round selection, the Predators took a different approach with their second pick in the round, selecting Finnish offensive defender Topi Niemela. A skilled playmaker from the back-end, Niemela may be lacking in the physical tools that Kleven possesses, but his high IQ and safe game allows him to move the puck effectively and it is easy to see his game translating well to the NHL level. BO

43. Florida Panthers - Marat Khusnutdinov, C, St. Petersburg (MHL)

Looking for a potentially elite two-way center, the Panthers select Russian forward Marat Khusnutdinov with their second-round pick. A powerful skater, Khusnutdinov is both a talented playmaker and a hard-working defensive center. There are some who question his upside as a top six forward, and because of that, the lure of the KHL is a real concern. However, there is no doubting that he deserves to be a top 50 selection and Florida makes a great pick here. BO

44. Toronto Maple Leafs - Jean Luc Foudy, RW, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

It is definitely possible that the Leafs opt for a forward with a little more size who skates well (like Torgersson or Jarventie) at this position, however Foudy may be too alluring for Leafs’ management to pass up. After playing against his brother Liam in this year’s playoffs and seeing his speed make him one of Columbus’ most effective players, the Leafs opt for Jean Luc. Adding speed to the current lineup (and system) has to be a priority and JL Foudy is one of the draft’s quickest. He has time to iron out some of the concerns about his game (perimeter play, defensive consistency, shot confidence), and if Toronto is patient, he could turn out to be a steal. BO

45. Detroit Red Wings (from Edmonton Oilers) - Drew Commesso, G, USNTDP (USHL)

Askarov is very clearly the top goaltender available this year, but the second goalie off the board is much more of a mystery. There are a lot of players in contention for that honor. One of them is Drew Commesso, the starter for the U.S. U18 team. Commesso was consistently a standout in the USHL this year and has all the tools that teams are looking for in a potential starter. Looking to improve the team’s prospect depth at the position, Detroit takes the Boston University commit in hopes that he can be their goalie of the future. BO

46. Chicago Blackhawks (from Pittsburgh Penguins) - Nico Daws, G, Guelph Storm (OHL)

It is very possible that goaltenders go back to back at this spot in the second round, given the lack of goaltending depth in both Detroit and Chicago’s system. Looking for a goalie who is closer to the show, Chicago selects Nico Daws, an OHL netminder in his final year of eligibility. The OHL goaltender of the year, Daws improved his conditioning last offseason and the results were incredible. A massive netminder at 6’4, 200lbs, Daws looks and plays the part of a future standout for the Hawks and a possible replacement for Corey Crawford. BO

47. Montreal Canadiens - Jake Neighbours, LW, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

Neighbours, ranked inside or near the first round by nearly every publication (including us) takes a bit of a tumble at the draft due to a perceived lack of upside. However, he plays the kind of heavy game that the Canadiens are looking to inject into their system and lineup. Even if he only tops out as a high end third line winger, he could provide value to Montreal in that role. BO

48. Montreal Canadiens (from Chicago Blackhawks) - Ian Moore, D, St. Marks (USHS)

Montreal has taken two high end prep school defenders in recent drafts (Struble and Harris), so why not make it a trifecta? With so many selections this year, Montreal is most definitely going to select some players who will require patience (and also not require a contract offer for several years). Moore fits the bill. A high-end skater from the back-end, it remains unknown how Moore’s skill set will translate to a higher level. However, he is set to play for Chicago (USHL) this year and then attend Harvard the following year; two fantastic programs. This is the kind of high upside selection that teams with many picks always make. BO

49. Arizona Coyotes - Pick Forfeited

This selection was forfeited by Arizona as punishment for breaking league rules surrounding the individual testing of draft eligible players.

50. Calgary Flames - Daniel Torgersson, LW, Frolunda J20 (SuperElit)

Playing out of the West, and with some great power forward type prospects available in this range, it is very possible that the Flames try to inject size and skill into the organization with this selection. Will Cuylle could be a possibility, but Calgary opts for a better skater in Torgersson. Like any potential young power forward, consistency is an issue but the potential reward here is high. BO

51. Los Angeles Kings (from Vancouver Canucks) - Jeremie Poirier, D, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

No question, someone could take a chance on Poirier a heck of a lot earlier than this. He is one of the draft’s top offensive defender prospects. His ability to QB the powerplay and jump up into the rush is elite. However, concerns over his defensive commitment and four-way mobility could push him down the board on draft day. The Kings have one of the NHL’s best farm systems so they can afford to take the chance that Poirier can eventually put his skills to use at the NHL level. BO

52. Ottawa Senators (from Columbus Blue Jackets) - Thomas Bordeleau, C, USNTDP (USHL)

Bordeleau, the son of former NHL’er Sebastien, is an undersized, but well-rounded offensive center out of the U.S. Development program. The University of Michigan commit has one of the quickest releases in the draft class and his play through traffic really improved over the course of the last USHL season. The concern that his skating is not dynamic enough, given his lack of size, pushes him down the draft board slightly, but he ends up as a great selection for the Senators. BO

53. Carolina Hurricanes - Tristen Robins, C/RW, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

Some draft publications have Robins in the first round. Some have him in the fourth round. Where will he truly fall come draft day? Our second-round ranking seems like a more likely reality. What is unquestionably true, however, is that Robins was one of the best players in the WHL in the second half of last season before the stoppage. If an organization is convinced that he can stick down the middle and that his offensive upside places him as a top six forward, he could go higher. Carolina is known to put a premium on hockey sense, over physical tools (at times) and it is very possible that they are the team that selects him. BO

54. Philadelphia Flyers - Will Cuylle, LW, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

They may not be the Broadstreet Bullies anymore, but the Flyers will always be a team that looks to assert themselves physically. That said, this is also a team that finds themselves in the bottom half of the league in hits over the last three seasons. Adding a physical power forward like Will Cuylle would make a lot of sense. Cuylle may not have had the kind of offensive season that was expected of him, but he still possesses the upside to be a high-end middle six winger and is a better goal scorer than the numbers would indicate. BO

55. San Jose Sharks (from Colorado Avalanche) - Danil Gushchin, W, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

One of the NHL’s weakest farm systems, compounded by the fact that they gave up the third overall selection this year, San Jose will look to swing for the fences on a few selections this draft. Enter Danil Gushchin. A highly skilled offensive player, Gushchin is the definition of a boom or bust pick. When he is on, he is electric. When he is off, he is invisible. He will suit up with Niagara of the OHL this year and will look to develop more consistency in helping a young team make the playoffs. For San Jose, he can be a possible difference maker if his development goes according to plan. BO

56. Detroit Red Wings (from Washington Capitals) - Brock Faber, D, USNTDP (USHL)

Even with the selection of Moritz Seider last year, and a few good young defenders in the system, the Wings are likely to continue to add quality blueliners to the organization at this year’s draft. Faber is a favourite in the analytics community because of his offensive efficiency. An intelligent two-way defender, Faber’s high IQ is likely to interest Detroit due to the decision-making issues some of their current young defenders have. BO

57. Montreal Canadiens (from St. Louis Blues) - Shakir Mukhamadullin, D, Ufa (MHL)

The whipping boy of the internet scouting community, Mukhamadullin certainly has his detractors. Many believe that he will never be able to properly utilize his physical tools because he does not think the game well enough. However, he remains...a defender with high end physical tools and that alone will draw the interest of NHL scouts. His strong start to the KHL season does not hurt either. A few years ago, Montreal rolled the dice on another raw Russian defender (Romanov) and that has worked out pretty well so far. Seeing them do it again is not farfetched. BO

58. Boston Bruins - Ozzy Wiesblatt, RW, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

A high energy winger who excels on the forecheck and in pushing the pace, it is not hard to see why the Boston Bruins could have interest in Wiesblatt. Universally ranked higher by scouts, Wiesblatt falls a bit in a similar way to Jake Neighbours, because of a perceived lack of upside. However, Boston has never been shy to select highly probable NHL players over those with higher upside but higher bust potential. BO

59. OTT (via NYI) - Martin Chromiak, W, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

After coming over to the OHL at the mid-way point of last season, Chromiak really found his game alongside the talented Shane Wright and fellow 2020 draft eligible prospect Zayde Wisdom. A terrific support player due to his vision and ability to control the wall, Chromiak has even more to show us as a potential offensive leader. As he gains confidence, look for his goal scoring ability to become a highlight of his skills package. Ottawa would have likely seen a lot of Chromiak this year, given the close proximity and his skill set would fit in well with the team’s current young core. BO

60. Los Angeles Kings (from Vegas Golden Knights) - Pavel Gogolev, LW, Guelph Storm (OHL)

If there is a team in the NHL who loves to take a chance on second- and third-year eligible players it is the Los Angeles Kings. One of the best available this year is Guelph Storm winger Pavel Gogolev, who emerged as one of the top offensive players in the OHL last year. Once a one-dimensional goal scorer, Gogolev has worked hard to add other layers to his game and it should make him an attractive top 100 selection this October. He could move quickly through LA’s system too, even if it is incredibly strong and deep. BO

61. Ottawa Senators (from Dallas Stars) - Zayde Wisdom, RW, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

After taking Chromiak a few picks earlier, the Senators opt for his teammate and linemate in Zayde Wisdom with this pick. Wisdom is a hard-working complementary piece who plays a very well rounded game. This is a kid who is highly motivated and continues to work hard to improve his game. It is not hard to see him becoming an NHL player. The question is, will the Senators still be bad enough to earn a shot at Shane Wright in 2022? BO

62. Tampa Bay Lightning - Roby Jarventie, LW, Koovee (Mestis)

While Tampa Bay may opt for a high upside defender here such as Wyatt Kaiser, Emil Andrae, or Anton Johanesson, they instead take the enigmatic Jarventie. Jarventie is the kind of winger that all NHL teams are looking for these days; big, quick, and a skilled scorer. Yet, he disappears for stretches and his international performances have left some to be desired. However, Tampa, without a first rounder, sees the upside here and hopes that he can help to offset that loss by developing into a high-end NHL scorer. BO

Will Scouch — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:27:33 +0000

Braden Schneider - RHD - Brandon Wheat Kings - NHL CSS NA9

60GP - 7G+35A - 3.24% G% 19.43%INV - 19.56 NHLeScore

Braden Schneider. Photo by Robert Murray/WHL

Kaiden Guhle and Braden Schneider are two of the three highly touted Canadian defensemen available in the NHL Draft. I went into this season expecting those two to be somewhat overrated due to their style of play, and tracking both has both solidified that belief, while still showing to me that both players do carry some value. I felt I would be remiss if I skipped over these two players for my own biases towards more mobile, offensively talented players, but these two have been curious case studies. Schneider is a name that has the resume, age and trajectory to be an NHL player sooner rather than later, so would he be a worthwhile pick in the early stages of the draft? Depends on who you ask. What might you think? Read below to help form your take.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

Braden Schneider is a careful, calm and rock-solid defender to tends to control the pace of the game well from the right side. There are quick defensive reads at both ends using a big frame to pinch along the boards to cause breakups. Schneider has moments of being able to handle multiple attacking options with patience and effectiveness with his gap control, stick placement and better than expected mobility.

With the puck on his own stick he shows a clear capability of generating breakouts with fakes and jukes to open lanes and send hard passes to forwards. However, I find that Schneider is still a defender very highly touted for reasons I still have trouble understanding. While he was a capable defensive player, I felt there were inconsistencies with his ability to apply pressure on rushes, especially when forecheckers would manage to get around him. Poor defensive reads to pinch high in the DZ while players were in front was an issue, and if pressure is applied in the DZ with the puck on his stick, he doesn’t have the quickness or skill to adapt quickly on the opponent’s terms. There were some awareness issues under pressure that led to less than ideal turnovers.

I’m not sure how else to explain situations like this, but he just seems to fall asleep at the wheel trying to anticipate opponent positioning while the puck is cycling around the boards. On defensive rushes, he’s capable enough of tracking forecheckers, managing gaps and is able to turn play around effectively, but many times there were head scratching lapses of awareness, sloppy puck play, and reads that don’t help his team a whole lot. He’s already quite old for this draft class, and will need to refine his processing of the game and decision making at the WHL level, especially when he’s faced with pressure from opponents if he’s ever going to be a big time minutes eater for an NHL team.

Think 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Think-2-1.mp4

Think 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Think-3.mp4

Bad Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadThink-3.mp4

This is an area where I came away more impressed than I expected, a solidly built defender that can move quite effectively around the ice, especially with crafty edgework, changing directions effectively to navigate into open ice. There are curious flashes of skill, especially for a bigger player that can help get around opponents in transition, but I question how much his puck rushing talent will project, as he might need to simplify his approach as he gets to higher levels, considering his pace of play on rushes was a bit underwhelming, but further skill development could help overcome that problem.

As it seems to be common, tracking fast wingers swinging wide on him seemed to be an issue for him, so tracking lateral motion with his feet could be something that could be improved on. There’s nothing exceptionally high level here, but he’s consistently reliable. In terms of potentially being an NHL player, there’s nothing that leads me to believe he can’t get there, at least as a defensive player. He’s a perfectly capable puck carrier, able to navigate ice well with his hands and feet, but I don’t see it being a premiere area of his game, which is fine by me considering where I have him ranked.

Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Move-3.mp4

Similar to fellow WHL defender Kaiden Guhle, Braden Schneider is right up there with the best separators of the puck in the draft. He utilizes multiple layers of defending options he can rely on, both stick and body-focused, and often showed a strong upper body in pursuit able to apply pressure well. Schneider has a long, lanky reach that he can employ effectively and can steer pucks out of trouble.

In the neutral zone, Schneider anticipates play well and can navigate out of danger well at the WHL level, but still unsure how it’ll project to higher levels at the moment. His smooth ice coverage, leading with his stick first allows him to pinch high in the neutral zone to try to block breakouts but on the other hand as mentioned before, tracking players swinging wide on him was a notable issue to the point where it felt tactical. The last game I tracked was against Dylan Cozens and the Lethbridge Hurricanes, also a 2001-born player, who he’ll likely see the caliber of many times in the NHL, and Cozens found multiple avenues through Schneider’s gap control and defensive pressure.

The big question I always get is how players like Schneider will fare against faster and leagues with more concentrated talent. If he doesn’t have the time to shift his weight to get to a reasonable speed to close gaps laterally, he can quickly end up a step behind. On the plus side, if he did lose a physical battle, he rarely gave up on play and managed to work to get pucks back.

I do believe he’s at a very high level on the defensive side of the game when it comes to anticipating play, closing gaps, and using multiple layers of defense to his advantage. There’s a lot of inconsistency here, as he could lose physical battles he should win, especially if his skating takes a step, or focus a bit too much on physical play when pucks are retrievable. Working on his lateral mobility to effectively close gaps like Guhle can in the same skill will help make him even more efficient here.

Get 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-2-2.mp4

Get 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-4.mp4

Bad Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadGet-2.mp4

This is a real Larry David-esque situation. He’s a capable passer most of the time, spotting breakout options in the NZ well and monitoring the ice competently, at least measurably better than Kaiden Guhle in transition. His completed passes can have plenty of power and get to their targets effectively, so working on consistently transmitting power to his stick will help iron out some inconsistencies here.

He is still a sub-70% passer over my sample and could be somewhat careless in the strength put behind his passes leading to turnovers. Troublingly, he showed moments where even after a shoulder check, he’s sending pucks directly to the opponent. I think this is an area you hopefully won’t have to be overly worried about in the NHL, and he could be a capable puck mover, but his decision making and ability to read the ice and identify targets will need some work to cut down on turnovers. The raw talent is there, but the thought processing might need some work.

Bad Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadPass-1.mp4

Another real mixed bag with limited upside, in my view. Schneider is 18th of 27 defenders in low danger attempts/60 and had one high or medium danger shot in my tracking, but it was pretty fun right in front gloving a puck down and getting a chance from right in front. He doesn’t shoot a ton at 5v5, his shot isn’t necessarily a dangerous one in my viewings and being a puck mover with some aggressive tendencies utilizing his passing in the offensive zone feels more in his wheelhouse.

Schneider’s well refined package of defensive tools is admirable. He’s calm, able to play with his stick and his body efficiently, and can turn play around effectively quickly. It isn’t perfect, but it’s what’s going to make him his money. He’s patient, intelligent, strong and good with his stick.

The ability to open passing lanes with his skill and patiently look for lanes up the ice is something he’s going to need to continue developing in order to reach his ceiling. There’s no reason I can see that Schneider doesn’t have enough raw tools to become a capable defender and transition passer with more practice and experience.

There’s overall inconsistency with Schneider’s game. In two of the games I tracked, he was well over 75% passing, with his last two games under a 25% OCZT%, which is simply remarkable. He’s an effective defensive player, but when faced with more talented WHL players, he seemed to have trouble getting a hold of the situation.

He’s an effective puck mover, but he could get tunnel vision and lose sight of what the right play is.

These things can be learned and worked on, but while his mobility is good for his style of play, that’s still something that lacks consistency, especially when it comes to generating speed and closing gaps laterally. There’s a lot of things that just need refining, and if this really is one of the best defenders available in the NHL draft, I might be more tempted by the plethora of offensive talent to choose from.

One thing I’ve noticed tracking as many defenders as I have this year is how it seems so many would rather chip pucks up the DZ or off the glass rather than maintain safe possession with their pairmates. Both Guhle and Schneider are unanimously seen as the highest rated Canadian defenders not named Drysdale, and where Drysdale shows a capability of being a talented and aggressive north/south passer into the NZ, Guhle and Schneider have both shown far less capability of doing the same. In Europe, it’s extremely commonplace to see defenders, even on larger ice, work with their partners tremendously often to open up lanes and play with a bit more creativity.

Is Schneider an NHL defenseman at some point? Sure. I have him ranked in the early second because I do think he can eat minutes and play well away from the puck, and turn play around effectively. Is he a top-20 talent this year? I don’t see how that’s reasonable in my view. He’s very nearly a 2019 eligible player, a bit of a weaker draft relative to this year, and I saw a similar profile in Ryan Johnson, but with a bit more mobility and skill, with less of the calm and patience that Schneider has, and he was around at the end of the 1st round.

Again, as is similar to Guhle, what is the risk taking him if he’s a top pick this year? What could his impact be? What are you passing on in offensive talent in favor of a solidly mobile and intelligent defender with questionable ability when pace gets ramped up? If he’s your guy early, go nuts. I could see a world where he’s a shutdown player you can rely on to keep the boat floating, but as a potential high impact, high offense player? I can’t say I see it. He’s strong but gets beat a bit too often. He’s smart but can lose track of players a bit too often. He’s a decent passer but he can get tunnel vision and miss a large percentage of his passes. If these things slowly sort themselves out, he could be a useful middle pair player with special teams’ talent, but it’ll depend on where you’re looking at drafting him.

Data tracked includes controlled and uncontrolled zone entries and exits the player is involved in, as well as shot attempts, their location, the player's pass attempts, and the percentage of those pass attempts that are directed to high or medium danger areas. The grades referred to in the video are assigned with a number and a letter grade. The number from one through four indicates the general tier of talent, with one being highest, and the letter indicating the consistency around that tier of talent.

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

Will Scouch — Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:23:19 +0000

Alexis Lafrenière - LW - Rimouski Océanic - NHL CSS NA1

52GP - 35G+77A - 17.09% G% 54.70%INV - 37.05 NHLeScore

I’m going to keep the preview short here. Alexis Lafrenière is a rock-solid hockey player who is certainly going in the first two picks of this year’s NHL Draft. He’s always displayed to me the brand of hockey player Hockey Canada staff dreams about at night. There are so many interesting parts of the game that he brings to the table, and I’m not going to waste any more of your time reading this introduction. We all know why you’re here.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

Right off the bat, per second of possession with the puck, Lafreniere might be one of the more efficient thinkers of the game I’ve seen. He doesn’t show a ton of flash because he doesn’t need to. He bears down on opponents away from the puck and applies pressure effectively. He’s the king of little plays that push play offensively and he’s hard to shut down as he does so. He anticipates play well and gets inside on opponents to cut off errant passes and maintain cycles and with the puck, he’s as deceptive as it gets and is a tremendous generator of offensive danger.

However, I do have concerns with where Lafrenière’s head is at times. It feels overwhelmingly apparent that this is a player who has outgrown junior hockey to the point of forming bad habits such as cheating for offense, taking the foot off the gas defensively, and relying on individual talent. He gets focused on the puck in defensive rushes often and wasn’t often aware of pinching defenders. Lafrenière seemed very much like an “I’m going to do this” player, and while he had the talent to get away with it in the QMJHL, I do wonder if there will be an adjustment period to NHL defenses, pace of play, and what coaches are looking for out of their wingers. There appeared to be a bit of a reliance on teammates to do dirty work and he’s the one responsible for putting points on the board. This is a player with oodles and oodles of talent, but almost too much of a willingness to rely on his flashier side to make plays, many of which are the kinds of “lazy” plays people critique Byfield for.

Another negative here is his tendency to just make… poor decisions mentally on the ice getting into situations that border on the line of “that’s a penalty” and “getting under the opponent’s skin”. There’s no question that Lafrenière is an exceptionally gifted offensive player, able to chip in as a passer, shooter, offensive transition facilitator, and an intimidating pressure applicator, but in my view, there are some bad habits that may expose themselves in the NHL for a period of time. His World Junior was spectacular, so when he’s in a position to put in 100%, he seems to rise to the occasion, but he’s a weird case in this category of a player who is simply too good for where they play, with nowhere else to go except the best league on the planet.

Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Think-2.mp4

Bad Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadThink-1.mp4

Plenty of people have noted Lafrenière’s skating isn’t a top-notch trait, but when he gets his feet moving, he can really move with a lot of power and aggression. There’s tremendous adaptable skill under pressure, able to dance around opponents with the puck and pull tricks out of his bag as he sees fit, rarely losing possession under pressure. He just knows how to weave around the ice at his own pace and use strong strides to navigate the NZ and generate entries. He rarely feels like he’s not in control of what he’s doing, and if it does, he’s recovering quickly and pushing play forward most of the time. He can just make a dang fool of you, a lot.

Being calm and trusting your talent to problem solve on the fly is a trait that will take Lafrenière quite far, but as is the trend here, there were times where a lack of focus and a full 100% effort level left things to be desired. If there was a loss of puck control in stride, Lafrenière was not often one to chase up on the play or really attempt to settle the puck. Making better reads of when he knows he can escape pressure will be pivotal, as the NHL is certainly not as easy as the QMJHL in terms of defensive pressure, and Lafrenière did try to put a bit too much on his shoulders. Yes, it would be nice to see him have that extra top gear that could make him a lethal NHL skater, but I found that 99% of the time, the engine was powerful enough to get the job done in conjunction with his other aspects in this category.

The move category doesn’t encompass skating alone, and while Lafrenière isn’t the most fluid or fastest skater available, it’s the combination of his stability, skill, resiliency, and strength that all combine to give him such a high rating. He is without a doubt the best problem solver in a variety of scenarios that I’ve tracked this season, and that alone will make him a useful NHL player. He’s got tremendous skill, and a brain that knows what to do and when in order to keep possession and drive offense.

Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Move-2.mp4

I’ve been criticizing Lafrenière’s effort level a bit, but he does show a good ability to apply pressure and cause uncontrolled transitions at a more than respectable rate. He forechecks hard and certainly has strength to toss around, and again, he’s a player who puts in what’s necessary to do things that are positive. He may not be extremely quick on his feet, but he skates with power and determination, taking full strides into an encounter and forcing chaos. Once he turns play around, he can simply take over the ice with his skill to evade pressure and find open space to make a play. He’s willing to use his stick to make plays as well, wrapping around opponents and clogging up their comfort zone. But there was further general inconsistency here.

Even at low pace, he could take strange routes on opposing rushes, trailing pucks far too much to be effective. The strange anticipation routes could also be an issue away from the play, as he could again try to anticipate turnovers rather than be willing to cause them himself. He also fell victim to the same shenanigans he’s more than happy to pull on opponents and rely a bit too much on his stick when things get greasy in front. It’s a mixed bag for a top prospect, but he’s getting a 1 for his ability to apply pressure, and what he’s able to do with the puck once he causes turnovers. The ceiling of what I saw was high here, and I can only hope that he captures that more often. He’s powerful, intelligent with his stick and body, and extremely crafty when turning play over.

Get 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-2-1.mp4

Get 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-3.mp4

Before you look at Lafrenière’s pass completion percentage, look at the percentage of his attempts that are dangerous. 22% is insanely huge, and his dangerous pass rate change from his first three games to his last four was simply spectacular, going from 9 to 21. There were times he could be a bit careless with his passing decisions, and just miss his targets but far, far more often than not he was a crafty offensive passer threading passes in a variety of situations, through a tremendous amount of traffic. He fires passes like rockets into dangerous areas and plays with a real purpose that implies full control of the play he’s executing. He can fake shots and push passes through the crease at full pace and his calculated skill also allows him to open up new passing lanes. Yes, it’d be great to see Lafrenière completing more passes in general, but his raw offensive passing ability is exceptional. It’s pretty simple. With more focus in transition using his skill to open lanes and move pucks with control, he could be a tremendous offensive player.

Pass 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pass.mp4

Pass 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pass-2.mp4

Pass Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/PassShot-1.mp4

Lafrenière sits 19th in individual high and medium danger attempts in my tracking, which leaves a bit to be desired, but the quality of his shot is what’s worth noting. There’s a quick release, transmitting plenty of force with his upper body over the puck, able to put pucks anywhere on a goalie very quickly. He gets his attempts off quickly and has a no-nonsense approach to getting into dangerous areas himself. Away from the puck, he’s extremely sneaky, able to take advantage of chaos with the trademark calm control he possesses. 50% of his attempts were low danger however, so using his profile in conjunction more often to get into dangerous areas will help get him in a position to score more.

Lafrenière is a dual threat offensive weapon with a quick release on his shot, and a deceptive ability to keep opponents on their heels guessing if he’ll be a shooting threat or a passing threat on a given play. He’s crafty, sneaky, hard to stop, and the fundamental shooting talent is already at a high level. Increasing his pace of play at times and making a bit more of an effort to push into medium danger could increase his offensive threat, but outside of that, there isn’t a ton I can really be unhappy with.

Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Shot-1.mp4

The skill that Lafrenière brings at his own pace is a very rare trait. put together is such a strong fundamentally efficient game. He knows what needs to be done and he just goes out and does it.

He has such a strong fundamental baseline for offensive production with his passing ability in a variety of scenarios, his ability to generate danger for himself, and his ability to use his skill to open up ice and generate lanes for positive play.

His mental inconsistency is something that clouds my judgement on him. I think he’ll be a great player, but I can’t shake the feeling that far too often, I was looking for more out of Lafrenière. Points aside, this is a player who in my sample of seven games against top QMJHL teams, was on the ice for two 5v5 goals for, and six against. Those two goals also came in game one of tracking. His first few games tracked were absolutely dominant on paper, but the lack of focus and lack of “team player” body language defensively kept making me think that these metrics could regress, and many did, with the last three games tracked as sub-55% DSAT% efforts. Similar to Byfield, how Lafrenière’s brain adapts over the next few years could mean the difference between one of the most exciting skilled forwards in the NHL, and a great offensive winger who may be a bit more underwhelming than you think at 5v5.

It’s almost inevitable that Byfield will be inextricably linked with Alexis Lafrenière, so let’s take a look at how the two compare in a few key categories I track. Keep in mind that these players are nearly 10 months apart in age.

Where Lafrenière has an advantage:
- Lafrenière drives a higher DSAT%, but only by 7%
- He drove almost 25% more offensive threat, with nearly 2x the individual dangerous shot attempts/60 and 4x the high danger attempts/60, with comparable dangerous pass rates
  - In my extremely rudimentary location-based xGF model, Lafrenière beats Byfield by 15%
  - Suppressed dangerous attempts against 20% better.
- Byfield
  - Drives offensive transitions with control 12% more often
  - Drove 28.6% more offensive transitions/60
  - 13% more active at both bluelines in any direction
  - Completed passes 17.6% more often

Lafrenière has had an extra year of junior to get his game going, and think back to the 2019 World Juniors, where Lafrenière was in a very similar situation to Byfield in this year’s tournament. Comparing basic results from Byfield this year to Lafrenière last year:

Byfield: 44.3% INV%, 17.3% G%, 40.51 NHLeS, is a centre
Laf: 43% INV%, 15.2% G%, 34.8 NHLeS, not a centre

So Byfield on paper is driving more of the natural flow of play with control than Lafrenière, but in terms of shot selection, and to a lesser extent dangerous passing, Lafrenière brings more to the table right now, but in many areas it’s very close, and I believe there’s a discussion to be had for the Rangers at #1 overall.

A lot of folks seem to use Mark Stone as a comparison for Lafrenière, and frankly I don’t see it, at least not as a two-way player. I think a Jamie Benn or Max Pacioretty profile is more suitable, with excellent offensive instincts and scoring ability, useful skill that comes out often, and a tenacity/aggressiveness that is useful in a variety of scenarios.

It’s hard to imagine a world where Lafrenière isn’t a premier offensive player with dazzling skill under pressure outside of him being unable to adapt to NHL pressure, getting frustrated with that inability, and forever trying to force a style of play that simply isn’t working, but this guy seems to know what needs to be done to be a great hockey player in general, and in my view is the most projectable pick in the draft.

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

Mon, 14 Sep 2020 16:58:00 +0000

Just over two years ago, the Islanders hired Hall of Famer Lou Lamoriello to be the organization’s President of Hockey Operations and General Manager. Within days, he hired Barry Trotz, fresh off a Stanley Cup Championship with the Washington Capitals, to be the team’s new head Coach. And while I am sure there were changes made here and there in Hockey Ops, many of the key players filling key roles for the franchise have stayed in the same roles they had under previous GM Garth Snow. These include Director of Professional Scouting Ken Morrow (in the role since 1992-93!!!), Director of Amateur Scouting Trent Klatt (carried the role from 12-13 – 14-15, and re-ascended to the top with Lamoriello’s return), and Head Coach at AHL Bridgeport, Brent Thompson (since 14-15).

I am not here to suggest that anyone should lose their jobs. I am here to suggest that there is a disconnect between the type of player the Islanders have been drafting, especially with top picks, and the way those players are subsequently developed internally and sometimes even brought up to the NHL.

If there is a theme among the upper crust of this system’s prospects, it is the abundance of highly skilled forwards being drafted, and those same forwards not developing well once they get to the AHL.

Let’s examine players who have graduated from Bridgeport since Thompson, who had a long professional career as a defensive defenseman, took over as Head Coach.

Adam Pelech – Big defensive defenseman spent one full season and two partials learning from Thompson before securing a full time NHL gig.

Ryan Pulock – Big defenseman with a top shelf point shot. First rounder took most of three seasons on the farm to get the call

Devon Toews – Two-and-a-half seasons as an offensive defenseman in the AHL before he broke through. In fairness, a big injury in his second year may have held him back

Michael Dal Colle – Former fifth overall pick was a dynamic scorer in junior hockey yet was stagnant for his first two seasons before finally acquitting himself in his third AHL campaign. Now almost a reasonable fourth liner in the NHL.

So, in six seasons, we have seen two first rounders make it, and two other later picks exceed expectations. It is not a very promising record of development, especially up front. For further proof of that, look at last year’s Bridgeport team. The forward units had four former first rounders to play with in Bellows, Wahlstrom, Holmstrom, and Ho-Sang, and ended up as the worst scoring team in the AHL. All four players have trended downwards since they were drafted, and especially since turning pro.

Perhaps they were overrated as amateurs and would not have progressed anywhere. Perhaps the Islanders need more help with skill development on the farm to help the forwards understand which tools will work best in the NHL. Or perhaps the organization needs better lines of communication between the AHL, scouting and the farm, such that the team is drafting players who fit in Trotz’ mold, and they are then being developed to reach those levels. Whichever is the answer, something needs to change to avoid continuing to waste talent. This coming offseason will give us all a better idea of what Lamoriello perceives as the problem, assuming he recognizes it as a problem at all.

UNIONDALE, NY - FEBRUARY 06: New York Islanders Left Wing Kieffer Bellows (20) during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Los Angeles Kings and the New York Islanders on February 6, 2020 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Ilya Sorokin, G (78^th overall, 2014. Pre-season: 4)

While neighboring Broadway is in the middle of the transition from Henrik to Igor, the team from Long Island/Brooklyn is approximately one year behind in their own transition, from a smorgasbord of goalies currently featuring Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Griess, to their own Russian phenom in Ilya Sorokin.

The 2014 third rounder required patience as he spent six years honing his game in the KHL, winning one Gagarin Cup, one Olympic Gold Medal, and three World Championship bronzes. His 2015-16 performance saw him put up the lowest GAA and second best save percentage of any KHL netminder in that six-year span.

At only 6-2” and a puck over 175 pounds, Sorokin is on the smaller side for a modern netminder, but he makes up for it with high end athleticism and a complete unwillingness to give up on any puck. Sorokin likes to challenge shooters, but he is calm in his crease and does not overcommit his positioning. If Super Sorokin has any kryptonite, it is on shots over his right (blocker) shoulder, where he stopped only 67% of shots this year, per InStatScout, generally when he gets too low in his crouch when the play is too close to the crease. All other potential holes were covered up at least 86% of the time.

The only part of his game which does not project to easily above average at the NHL level is his puck handling, which is at a fine level for European goalies, but not notable in North America. The only significant question about Sorokin’s projection revolves around whether he can sustain his elite level of play in a lengthy NHL season, as the 25-year-old has never played more than 40 league games in any one year. We will begin to find out the answer in 2020-21 as Sorokin is finally under NHL contract. - RW

Kieffer Bellows, LW (19^st overall, 2016. Pre-season: 8)

As the scoring leader for the AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers this past season, Bellows is on the cusp for making the permanent break into the New York Islanders lineup. As a former first round pick and potential power forward, Bellows has big shoes to fill when it comes to his overall ceiling as a player.

He is strong, physical, capable of winning battles, and hard on the puck, all of which makes him a difficult opponent to play against. This past season, he made his NHL debut for a stint of eight games, putting up three points, which was good but the Islanders need to see more from him before making a full time commitment. Bellows will need to prove himself in camp in order to make the starting roster or else expect him to start back down with Bridgeport in 2020-21.

He has recently shown improvements in his discipline and has been able to find a better groove than last season. With any luck he can keep developing, thinking quicker, and learning to move the puck faster in order to be ready to fill one of the top six spots on the Islanders roster within the next two seasons. He still needs to work on keeping his feet moving and finding that extra gear more often, as well as his two way play in order to be considered a complete player. Consistency is key and if Bellows can maintain the exact same level of focus and intensity each game it will be hard to deny him a chance at becoming a prime asset in the NHL. - SC

EAST MEADOW, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 5: Oliver Wahlstrom of the New York Islanders (Photo by Bruce Bennett/NHL via Getty Images)

Oliver Wahlstrom, RW (11^th overall, 2018. Pre-season: 2)

As a former USNTDP product, Oliver Wahlstrom plays a good forechecking game and is highly talented in the skill department. Despite having a brief stint in the NHL with the Islanders this past season, he failed to perform up to his first-round standard and did little to up his stats during that time. When the Islanders first brought him up it seemed as though his play was still a little too immature to match up with such a competitive group but with another season at the professional level it should help him to improve his production, build his confidence, and quicken the pace at which he moves the puck.

Wahlstrom is a mature player in terms of his own age group and often stood out at the U20 national team level for how he carries the puck and gets to the net, however playing at the NHL level has had him more frustrated than confident when the puck is on his stick. In the AHL with Bridgeport he has fared well but was still not standing out as much as he should or could be.

With the rate at that Wahlstrom is developing, if he does not put up a strong season this year and work on staying ahead of the play, he will be at risk of falling into prime trading territory. He will need to focus on his two-way play and prove to staff that he is the same highly skilled power forward they drafted in 2018 if he wants a chance at cracking the bottom six on Long Island. - SC

Bode Wilde, D (41^st overall, 2018. Pre-season: 5)

It was a bit of a tough season to evaluate Wilde’s development. He started the year in the AHL with Bridgeport but struggled in limited ice time. So, the Islanders sent him back to the OHL to play so that he could help Saginaw with a long run towards a Memorial Cup. After 11 games, the season was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

So, what have we learned about Wilde? For one, his decision making still needs to improve and will likely be the key to him reaching his potential as an NHL defender. He is still a high-risk taker who generates significant offense from the back-end, but who also can give up his share of chances the other way because of turnovers or lackluster coverage in transition. From all accounts, this was what he struggled with most at the AHL level, especially given the increase in pace.

On the other hand, Wilde remains a defensive prospect with a very high upside because of the raw tool set he possesses. He skates at a high level. He handles the puck at a high level. He has a terrific shot and scoring instincts from the back end. He shows flashes of being a physical presence in the defensive end. When he is playing at the top of his game, he can be a real difference maker.

Ultimately, the Islanders may have to be patient with Wilde. He will not be able to beat pro players with his athleticism the way that he does OHL players. It would be best to ease him into a role, allowing him to adjust to the pace until his decision-making approach adapts. – BO

Simon Holmstrom, RW (23^rd overall, 2019. Pre-season: 3)

Entering the North American professional system the same year as being drafted is uncommon when talking about European players who often settle for a year at home, playing in their respective leagues, or for Russian players often playing out KHL contracts first before coming over, however that was not the case for Sweden-born Simon Holmstrom, who was the Islanders first round pick in 2019. He made the jump immediately to the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers where he did not look out of place as the season rolled along.

He has a good work ethic and adapts well, which was evident in his growing confidence throughout the season. Holmstrom has the right mindset and maturity to make his NHL debut as soon as next season, however he will still need to get a little stronger on the puck and more creative when trying to find open space. He already has the skating and puck handling ability to operate at the next level and these are small adjustments to be made for a player with the right composure and attitude.

Look to see him earn more special teams time as well next season. Should that happen, he will have more opportunities to work on carrying the puck and getting a feel for setting up plays in power play situations on the smaller, North American ice. Look for Holmstrom at some point this coming season to hit the ice for the Islanders as part of a bottom six winger pairing. - SC

Ruslan Iskhakov, RW (43^rd overall, 2018. Pre-season: 11)

Ruslan Iskhakov was a gem of a find for the UConn coaching staff, who plucked him from Russia. That same year, Iskhakov was drafted in the second round, 43rd overall, by the Islanders. Before coming to UConn, he also spent a season and change playing in Slovakia as well as one season in the MHL, Russia’s top U20 league. He also represented Russia at the U-18 World Junior Championship.

His defining characteristic is his speed – he is one of the fastest players in the East. However, his speed is still raw and could use some refining. At 5-8”, he is on the smaller side, but that is no longer a deal breaker in pro hockey. Despite his size, he is still aggressive and not afraid of playing a physical style. There is room in his game to mature and the speed of his hands to catch up with the speed of his feet. He is moving on from UConn to spend next season in Finland, with TPS. - JS

Joshua Ho-Sang, RW (28^th overall, 2014. Pre-season: 7)

In a weird and controversial turn of events, Ho-Sang was loaned out last season to a club after requesting a trade when he was left off the opening night roster. He was not loaned to another league but rather a different NHL organization and affiliate with the San Antonio Rampage of the St. Louis Blues. Ho-Sang played just six games with the Rampage before being returned to the Islanders’ regular AHL club, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.

It is no secret that Ho-Sang and management do not get along but for the talented and smooth skating forward next season is a make or break year. Due to his attitude on and off the ice it seems that the only way that Ho-Sang will be given any realistic chance is if he earns it, putting up a record year. He is not short on talent or offensive ability but the game is not played in one direction only and he will need significant work on his two way game before being given a shot at cracking the Islanders top six, that is if he doesn’t get traded first. - SC

Sebastian Aho, D (139^th overall, 2017. 2019 Rank: 10)

For a defenseman, (“the other”) Sebastian Aho finished second in points for AHL Bridgeport this past season, sitting only one point behind Kieffer Bellows. He is a tremendously composed defender who carries the puck well and likes to set up plays. Aho makes carrying the puck look easy and his hockey IQ is very high which has him oftentimes setting up both breakouts and attacks making him an asset as a two-way player.

Having not had a call up in over a season, the Islanders are making sure that he is better developed for the NHL game and this coming season should be a promising one for Aho who has proved to Bridgeport that he is up for a more challenging role with the NHL club. Aho has the potential now to be tried anywhere from the top pairing to the third as he is versatile and capable of playing well in all situations. - SC

Otto Koivula, LW (120^th overall, 2016. 2019 Rank: 16)

Koivula is a big bodied forward who moves well despite his size, possesses top quality hands, and a good shot. He finished with the Islanders last season, however with zero points to show after 12 games up in the NHL, there is a strong chance that he is likely to start back out in Bridgeport with the AHL’s Sound Tigers for the 2020-21 season.

There is little that needs to be improved with Koivula in terms of skill but he will need to move the puck faster and learn to keep his feet moving better at the next level or else he runs the risk of falling behind the play again, instead of leading with his hands and strength. Koivula has a high ceiling if he can manage to put all the pieces to his game together and dial in to hit that extra gear next season should he get called back up to fill in on the Islanders’ bottom six. - SC

Anatoli Golyshev, LW (95^th overall, 2016. 2019 Rank: 9)

A small winger, who nonetheless shows no fear in playing in front of the net, Golyshev’s place on this list is both a farewell and a reminder to Islanders brass that they still control the rights of a gifted offensive talent in Russia, who has provided more than respectable numbers over the last three seasons in the KHL, but has not yet signed an Entry Level deal at 25-years-old.

He is fleet of foot and likes to cut across the slot, creating passing lanes for his linemates to find him with. Golyshev plays with a surprising amount of jam for a player of his small stature, somewhat reminiscent of a player like Tyler Ennis. He has soft hands and impressive puck control and can be a solid half-wall quarterback on the power play, given his vision and accurate passing. Again, somewhat reminiscent of Tyler Ennis. Golyshev signed a four-year deal with Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg last year, so he won’t be coming anytime soon. A small, but notable waste of a resource. - RW

Robin Salo, D (46^th overall, 2017. 2019 Rank UR)

Salo was the top defenseman for SaiPa in 2019-20 before being loaned to the SHL’s Örebro in the later part of the season. He logged big minutes and played with a lot of confidence with the puck. The improvement he made over the course of the season was quite impressive. He is now a well-rounded defenseman who plays an effective, mature game at both ends.

He moves the puck well in transition, has good vision and shows offensive imagination. He has a precise wrist shot which he can unleash on the net through traffic. He reads the game really well without the puck, especially in the defensive zone. He uses strong positioning and a quick stick to maintain tight gap control. Skating is still not among his best attributes. The biggest issue is his stride which is clumsy and affects his mobility. He could be more explosive as well. Salo does not have one dominant trait, but he does many things well and his ability to read and anticipate the play are assets. - MB

Samuel Bolduc, D (57^th overall, 2019. 2019 Rank: 18)

Bolduc is a tantalizing defenseman when you watch him at the point. He has a devastating slapshot that he fires with authority several times per game, and he skates well. He moves the puck well in the offensive zone and can distribute. He has excellent size for the pro game and looks to get even bigger as he fills out.

However, while the size is a positive, he sometimes forgets that he is 6-4” and over 200 pounds, because he is not a physical defender. If he figures that out, he would be able to get off the bottom pair in terms of his potential, because he would use his solid raw power all over the ice to his advantage. His passing is inconsistent outside of the powerplay, and at times he struggles to recover from unforced errors, but all-around he has solid pro potential, as long as he learns to use his frame. He is signed to an entry-level deal and will start in the AHL next year. - MS

Reece Newkirk, C (147^th overall, 2019. 2019 Rank: 17)

Newkirk’s competitiveness shines through in all he does on the ice. He is a hard forechecking, hard backchecking, meat-and-potatoes type of player that brings a consistent effort. As seen with his play this season he is able to play with skill players and carved out a role on a top line with Seth Jarvis most nights. Newkirk has improved across the board although his offensive talents will not be how he carves out a pro career.

He isn’t a massive player, but he plays a heavy game for his size. He has solid vision and passing skills, that when added to his strong head for the game, make him a decent offensive player. He also reads open ice well, both finding it himself or taking it away defensively, reads breakouts well, and gets himself into places where he can be effective. He is a very effective players without the puck which helps him to generate more than his fair share of turnovers. - VG

Mitchell Vande Sompel, D (82^nd overall, 2015. 2019 Rank: 14)

After playing a solid 70-game season in 2018-19, it was unfortunate that Vande Sompel spent the entirety of the 2019-20 season out with a serious arm injury. Despite being injured, he still remains on the prospect list as one of the Islanders top offensive defensemen outside of the NHL, capable of skating with the puck, passing, and getting into good shooting position.

He has improved his defensive zone coverage a lot since his professional debut in the AHL and has turned into a more mature two-way player, especially compared to his offensively focused days in major junior. Next season, should Vande Sompel be healthy enough, will be a make or break year for him as he will need to prove that the smaller defender can withstand the rigors of the professional game, and is good enough to be called up and good enough to earn a bottom four spot in the NHL. - SC

Collin Adams, LW (170^th overall, 2016. 2019 Rank: UR)

An undersized late bloomer, Adams needed an extra year in the USHL (which typically doesn’t play many already drafted players) before moving on to North Dakota. After struggling mightily as an underclassman, Adams took a huge step forward in both responsibility and production as a junior last year, nearly doubling his combined point total from the previous two campaigns.

The former sixth round pick may never be more than a bottom-line energy player at the highest level, he plays with a respectable combination of puck skills, playmaking chops, two-way responsibility and grit to earn some fans among decision makers. Before he can make his mark professionally, he will need to continue to demonstrate improvements in his game as a senior, and if he can’t add on any additional muscle to his lean frame, perhaps he can add an extra gear to wheels that are currently known more for edges than speed. - RW

Will Scouch — Mon, 14 Sep 2020 16:39:28 +0000

Kaiden Guhle - LHD - Prince Albert Raiders - NHL CSS NA8

64GP - 11G+29A - 5.24% G% 19.05%INV - 19.34 NHLeScore

Kaiden Guhle. Photo courtesy of the WHL

Evaluating young defenders is still a bit of a work in progress to me. Mobility, gap control and offensive ability are all paramount to success in the modern NHL, but scouting defensemen seems to focus on players who may lack mobility and offensive upside in favor of chasing players down with high intensity physical play. The 2020 Draft contains quite a few examples of players that carry more “defensive” reputations, and Kaiden Guhle is often a headliner of that class. Guhle is a profile of player that I went into tracking expecting to find overrated, but he turned out to be an interesting case that highlighted some key areas where some deeper data might be able to help evaluate defensive players for the NHL Draft. He isn’t without fault, but he has been one of the most fascinating players in my dataset all year.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

Kaiden Guhle is a weird hybrid of old-school and modern defending. There is rock solid traditional positioning ability defensively, with smooth mobility for a big player, able to close on opponents in defensive rushes. He shows an ability to jump into the offensive zone when he sees the chance and uses his frame to knock down pucks to prolong cycles. Guhle often plays with patience defensively and brings a good ability to pick spots to close in on opponents and make life miserable. He’s pretty straightforward. He’s a guy who makes life very difficult in a variety of ways with his body and stick in both the offensive zone and on defensive rushes. Guhle is constantly in the way in dangerous areas blocking passing lanes and preventing opponent control.

For all these positives, boy, when play turns around offensively, Guhle is frustrating to say the least. This may be a matter of taste, but big physical defensemen who chase physical play put themselves out of play when making poor reads, and Guhle was often no different. Yes, playoff hockey means that penalties aren’t a thing more often than not, but this isn’t about Guhle breaking the rules, it’s about Guhle making himself a tactical liability, but responsible systems around him like the Raiders could cover for him well.

With the puck on his own stick, his decisions often took a long, long time to make, and he’d end up going off the glass and out, ignoring breakout options. He just felt like a player who would engage defensively, and then more often than not just hurl pucks away just to defuse the pressure, only to risk more pressure being applied. Reading play and teammate awareness was an issue, Guhle seemed very narrow-minded when it came to moving pucks, and it shows in the data, especially when moving pucks up the ice.

Guhle is a player who, depending on what you like in a defenseman, could be the most awesome player out there, or he could be one of the most frustrating. Away from the puck, he makes great reads when it comes to pinching to break up breakouts, or backchecking to prevent dangerous pressure, but he can get caught out of position chasing hits, and when play turns around, his game takes a complete 180. Executing simple plays and being more aware of linemate positioning, especially under pressure is going to need to be a primary point of improvement for Guhle.

Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Think-1.mp4

Bad Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadThink.mp4

Bad Think 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadThink-2.mp4

My big issue with players like Guhle in junior is that they often aren’t very mobile, but this is certainly not the case, and it should take Guhle to at least being a competent NHL defender. He’s a very big boy, and as such, he can be a rock on skates, able to not so much evade pressure, but punch through it and navigate out of it.

There’s interesting flashes of skill and evasiveness with his hand, able to work in tandem with his crossovers and power generation to get up the ice. There’s great fluidity on his frame away from the puck, able to efficiently cover ice in multiple directions. Adapting to agile opponents on his big frame is still something that need some work, involving his pivots. There are some issues with puck control, settling pucks, and getting moving in conjunction, but his ability to use his mobility and fluidity to shut play down in defensive rushes is something that should project well.

It’s clear Guhle is not a big hulking defender who can’t skate, and he utilizes that mobility to cover ice, close gaps and combines that with flashes of skill and quickness with his hands to avoid pressure. In terms of the move category for a player projecting to be defense-first, he’s got a lot of promise here, and I don’t believe it’ll be the area that could hold him back.

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MovePass-1.mp4

This is where Kaiden Guhle will make his money. He is, without a doubt, the best physical separator of players from pucks. He’s a brick house on skates, he’s got plenty of strength on his skates to shove players out of their rushing lanes, and that strength can also eliminate board cycles quickly. He’s an anticipator of passing lanes, knowing when to stray from dangerous areas, and is a skilled stick checker with his reach as well. There’s just a tremendously varied defensive skillset combining everything together on top of his skating talent.

There were rare instances where he wasn’t throwing his weight around as effectively, usually stemming from being unable to get his feet set and comfortable, so adapting to strong opponents who can push back may take time and further physical development. Getting taken wide along the defensive blueline was also a bit of an issue as he’d get caught hyperextended and overstretched without the explosiveness to close gaps, but this was rare relative to how positive Guhle was across that blueline.

There are many, many reasons why Guhle faced the lowest dangerous shot attempt rate of any defenseman in his own end by 10% and registered under a 30% DCZT%. He just knows how to completely erase opposing offense, be it up the middle of the ice, along the boards, in transition, or behind the net. He’s the most projectable defense-first player in any situation available this year and I’m pretty certain of that. He’s so varied in this area and so solid at causing havoc and breaking up play that he’s going to have defensive value at the very least at the next level. He isn’t all strength and hitting, he has layers of defensive options that he can rely on and rarely gets beat. If he can continue to build strength and combine that with raising the floor of talent with his backwards crossovers and pivots, he could be a terrific defensive player.

Get 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-1.mp4

Get 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Get-2.mp4

For all the positives defensively, things are very different on the other side of the flow of play. Guhle missed connecting on 35% of his passes, often leading to icing pucks consistently and turnovers in the neutral zone. Again, with the puck control, there were issues getting full force behind his pass attempts at times. He seemed to have a very myopic view of passing options, unable to survey ice consistently.

He did show some aggression offensively able to carry pucks into the offensive zone and create from there and at times was a capable first pass generator and when given lots of time and space, generating breakouts at a basic level. So as a diffuser of pressure with a partner capable of carrying/passing pucks in transition, Guhle could be a highly useful foil.

Guhle is not a guy I’d rely upon as a primary offensive puck mover down the road. Far too often I saw him hanging onto pucks waiting for… I’m not sure what purpose, and ending up with sloppy passing, handing possession to the opponent, or icing pucks for defensive zone faceoffs. As long as he can get pucks to a more reliable partner, he could be a useful player, but on paper he seemed far too prone to putting his team at a disadvantage through his puck moving at 5v5.

Pass Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/PassShot.mp4

Bad Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BadPass.mp4

Guhle is 15th among 27 defenders in 5v5 shot attempts/60, and judging defenders in the shoot category is always a bit murky, but Guhle might have some potential as a scorer judging but the quickness he can show getting his shot off. He does show an ability to pinch into the offensive zone and make himself a high danger scoring option, but this happened once. He has the mobility and strength to do so if he wants to moving forward.

Guhle is a no-nonsense shooter, quickly making the decision with the quick release he has on his wrist shot. He may not showcase a tremendous slap shot from the point particularly often, at least not at 5v5, and he’s not a happy-go-lucky shooting defender lobbing pucks on the net all day, but he does show a capability of quickly getting shots off from multiple areas of the ice, and either from a cycle or on a rush.

Guhle is simply the best eraser of opponents available in the draft. He removes players from play, including himself a bit, and prevents dangerous chances against better than anyone. Closing small gaps quickly with great strength on a big frame separates players and he should have no problem being a traditional shut down player that is hard to beat.

For a big player who plays with strength and defense-first, Guhle’s skating is quite special. He’s got a solid crossover ability to smoothly navigate in all four directions with and without the puck, with decent skill to go with it to navigate pressure into open ice. He shifts body weight well over his feet to stay balanced and drive himself around the ice effectively.

Anything not involving shutting down opponents over the DBL is… not great. He feels a player driving a rubber boat that he is constantly making holes in and having to plug, having trouble getting anywhere on his own. He drives offensive transitions worse than anyone I’ve tracked, and he misses on 35% of his passes. Working on developing his skating and skill with more time watching his play to survey a breakout better will be necessary if he’s going to project as a defensive defender

Guhle is a weird case study. Simultaneously the best defensive player I’ve tracked, and the worst offensive transition defenseman I’ve tracked. He constantly hands possession to his opponent but shuts them down successfully constantly. The big question will be how does that style project to the NHL when pace of play increases? There are NHL defenders who have measurably poor overall results, but show the appearance of being nasty, mean, and a “shutdown” player. There may be some good defensive results there, but if the player is directly causing the team to play defensively more often than offensively, can that lead to positive results, even if the player is preventing dangerous chances against?

The bigger question is how valuable will a player like Guhle be within the context of the draft? Is he a Nikita Zadorov? Jamie Oleksiak? Frankly, I don’t know, but I’m more skeptical considering his on-paper willingness to hand over possession. If Guhle ends up over 230 pounds, there were 12 defenders at or above that weight, only Shea Weber and Brent Burns were 30+ point players. Burns is not known for his defense, and I don’t see the same individual offense that Weber can generate in Guhle. Perhaps a Zdeno Chara or Colton Parayko-style upside is possible, but my hunch is there’s a long way to go before getting to that point.

All that said, Guhle is a defense-first player that can move around the ice effectively and is legitimately gifted in the physical area of the game, separating pucks and causing turnovers, both for the opponent as well as his own team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him gone in the Top-15, and there’s a chance he rounds his game out into a top-pair shut down player, but a middle of the lineup versatile shutdown player seems more realistic, and you do need those kinds of players, you just need them to be overall positive impact players.

Final Ratings: Think - 2F, Move - 1C, Get - 1B, Pass - 3C, Shoot - 2B, Overall - 2B

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

Frolunda (Swe Jr)

Frolunda (Swe)

Frolunda (Swe)

Frolunda (Swe Jr)

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 09 Sep 2020 14:00:12 +0000

I know, I know. You are not here for the preamble, so I will keep it extremely brief. For this mock, we are only looking at the part of the first round for which we know the order. That is, the top 27 picks, split amongst the teams that are no longer contending for the Stanley Cup. The draft order will be further clarified after the end of the each remaining round. Picks 28-29 will go to the teams that lost in the Conference Finals, with the team with the worse regular season record picking 28th and the better of the two picking 29th. The 30th pick will go to the team that loses in the Stanley Cup Finals, and the Champions will pick 31st. Well, technically, two of those picks have already been traded, as Ottawa will get the pick that had belonged to the Islanders and San Jose taking Tampa’s pick.

Those eight teams all had equal 12.5% (1 in 8) chances of winning the top pick, the lottery for which was held a few weeks ago. The New York Rangers won the honors. After the top three picks, the rest of the 4-15 set is set by regular season record. In fact, picks 16-28 will also be decided by regular season record, including all teams who were knocked out in the first or second rounds of the postseason. As we are still early in the first round, we can only know the picks of the players with worse regular season records than the worst regular season team still standing (Vancouver, whose pick belongs to New Jersey, via Tampa).

The picks made here are not based on insider intelligence, but through an understanding of the players available, and our knowledge of team tendencies and needs.

Let’s Draft!

#1 - New York Rangers - Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL), 6'1", 195lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Rimouski (QMJHL)	61	37	68	105	72
2019-2020	Rimouski (QMJHL)	52	35	77	112	50

Lafreniere is ready to step right into an NHL roster and play a top six role on day one. The six years of team control that the Rangers would have would all be valuable years and they would be starting immediately. Byfield, on the other hand, may be ready to play in the NHL right now, but he would likely need a season or so before he can start to impose himself on the game. This is basically a parallel to the two players’ respective roles on the Canadian WJC roster. Both made the team, but Lafreniere was the tournament MVP, while Byfield barely saw the ice by the end. Although a winger, Lafreniere will soon be making his linemates better, much like John Tavares used to do across town in Long Island.There is a very reasonable argument to be made that the highest upside among the 2020 draft class actually belongs to Quinton Byfield. I have time for that argument, considering positional value (Byfield is a center and Lafreniere is a let winger), age (Lafreniere is a late ’01 born, while Byfield has an August 2002 birthdate, giving Byfield 10 extra month of physical development to come), and size (Lafreniere has good size, Byfield is a physical specimen). That said, I would not hesitate in the slightest to select Lafreniere here.

#2 - Los Angeles Kings – Tim Stutzle, LW, Adler Mannheim (DEL), 6' 1", 185lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Jungadler Mannheim U20 (Ger Jr)	21	23	32	55	30
2019-2020	Adler Mannheim (DEL)	41	7	27	34	12

#3 - Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks) - Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury Wolves, (OHL), 6' 4", 215lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Sudbury (OHL)	64	29	32	61	38
2019-2020	Sudbury (OHL)	45	32	50	82	44

We know that Lafreniere will not be available at this slot, giving Ottawa the easiest selection of the draft here. They simply take whoever is left on the board between Lafreniere, Stutzle and Quinton Byfield. There is a pretty clear drop off in expected future value after these three in this first round. In this scenario, Byfield falls in Ottawa’s lap, and they will not be complaining to get a player they could begin grooming to be their future top line center. Physically overwhelming at the junior level, Byfield has the tools to continue dominating at the NHL level, although many believe that he needs to process the game a gear quicker to allow for all of his tools to play to their capacity at the top level. Ottawa will need more patience with Byfield than the Rangers or Kings would need with Lafreniere or Stutzle, but the payoff will be worth it.

#4 - Detroit Red Wings – Cole Perfetti, C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 5' 10", 180lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Saginaw (OHL)	63	37	37	74	10
2019-2020	Saginaw (OHL)	61	37	74	111	16

#5 - Ottawa Senators - Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP (USHL), 6'1", 185lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	USN U17 (USDP)	44	4	20	24	18
2019-2020	USN U18 (USDP)	47	7	22	29	12

#6 - Anaheim Ducks - Jamie Drysdale, D, Erie Otters (OHL), 5' 11"

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Erie (OHL)	63	7	33	40	20
2019-2020	Erie (OHL)	49	9	38	47	24

#7 - New Jersey Devils – Lucas Raymond, LW, Frolunda HC (SHL), 5' 11", 170lbs

#8 - Buffalo Sabres - Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa 67s (OHL), 5' 9", 185lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Ottawa (OHL)	53	29	36	65	32
2019-2020	Ottawa (OHL)	56	39	81	120	40

The Sabres are once again entering a new regime. The Jason Botterill anti-CHL drafting is a thing of the past. New GM Kevyn Adams has no track record to look to for speculation about how the team might draft. There is a general sense though that metrics will play a deeper role in their selections, especially considering the mass layoffs among the Buffalo scouting staff. So, the player who led the OHL in assists and points would be a good fit in that regards. Rossi’s overall hustle and grit would also help make Buffalo tougher to play against, giving opponents a second line after Eichel’s to worry about.

#9 - Minnesota Wild - Yaroslav Askarov, G, Neva St. Petersburg (VHL), 6'3", 175lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	W	L	GAA	SV%
2018-2019	SKA-Varyagi im. Morozova (MHL)	31			2.37	0.921
2019-2020	SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (VHL)	18	12	3	2.45	0.920
2019-2020	SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)	1			2.00	0.920

#10 - Winnipeg Jets – Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL), 6', 190lbs

I get the sense that the Jets would sign off on this scenario in a heartbeat. It would not be hard to imagine an alternate scenario wherein Holtz is off the board at pick 5/6. Three years ago, the Jets drafted a big, skilled winger playing in Sweden named Kristian Vesalainen. Vesalainen has been jerked around since being drafted, spending time in the NHL, AHL, KHL and Liiga. Holtz is not the physical specimen that Vesalainen was, but his offensive instincts are more refined and his draft year production put Vesalainen’s to shame. Holtz’ toolkit is robust and deep such that even though he is best known for his finishing skills, he can contribute in all facets. He may not be far at all from the NHL.

#11 - Nashville Predators – Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa 67s (OHL), 6' 0", 180lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Ottawa (OHL)	61	12	20	32	23
2019-2020	Ottawa (OHL)	62	52	37	89	32

#12 - Florida Panthers – Braden Schneider, D, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL), 6' 2" 200lbs)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Brandon (WHL)	58	8	16	24	26
2019-2020	Brandon (WHL)	60	7	35	42	42

Dale Tallon is on the way out in South Florida and TBD is taking his place. With that much uncertainty surrounding the organization, I would generally proceed with a strict “Best Player Available” mantra, which, once again, would be goalie Askarov. In this case, though, as the Panthers used their 2019 first rounder on goalie Spencer Knight, while Sergei Bobrovsky is signed long term, Askarov is highly unlikely at 12. After Askarov, there are two forwards and two defenders who are all pretty close in terms of expected future value. In this case, I don’t mind going heavy on positional need, as most of the Panthers’ to prospects after Knight are forwards, while the system is very shallow on the blueline. The organization is especially shallow on the right side of the blue line, so I will give the edge to Braden Schneider here over lefty Kaiden Guhle. But in truth, either would be a solid fit.

#13 - Carolina Hurricanes (from Toronto Maple Leafs) – Anton Lundell, C, HIFK (Liiga)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	HIFK (Fin)	38	9	10	19	8
2018-2019	HIFK (Fin Jr)	10	6	9	15	6
2019-2020	HIFK (Fin)	44	10	18	28	18

If the Hurricanes, under own Tom Dundon, are adamantly opposed to drafting a defenseman in the first round, I have a hard time imaging them springing for a goalie either. With two forwards of note to consider, I see them drafting Seth Jarvis over Dawson Mercer as the former is a much better skater than the latter and the center option for Jarvis adds value over Mercer, who is less likely to be able to play up the middle. I could also see the Hurricanes being the high team on Russian forward Rodion Amirov, but Jarvis’ dynamic offensive game would be hard to resist here.

#14 - Edmonton Oilers – Seth Jarvis, C, Portland Winterhawks (WHL), 5' 10", 175lbs

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS
2018-2019	Portland (WHL)	61	16	23	39
2019-2020	Portland (WHL)	58	42	56	98

The Oilers have picked goalies in the second or third rounds in each of the three most recent drafts. While none of Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue, or Ilya Konovalov look like sure fire NHL starters yet, drafting a goalie in the first seems to be a tough sell here. For as much as their playoff hopes for this year were torpedoed by subpar goaltending from Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen, there is no amateur goalie out there right now who will be able to take over immediately. Instead, look for the Oilers to continue to build organizational depth up front, as the team has long had a hard time putting the puck in the net without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. The German connection could be a thing if the Oilers were interested in JJ Peterka but recall that Draisaitl was drafted out of the WHL. Instead, I see them staying closer to home. It is too early to take Edmonton product Jake Neighbours, but Kamloops’ Connor Zary could be a good fit here. Some don’t like his skating, but there is no denying his offensive game. Once he is ready, he can be a strong second line play driver who could work on the wing if he isn’t needed at his natural center position.

#15 - Toronto Maple Leafs (rom Pittsburgh Penguins) – Rodion Amirov, LW, Salavat Yulaev Ufa (KHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Tolpar Ufa (MHL)	31	13	13	26	14
2019-2020	Salavat Yulayev Ufa (KHL)	21	0	2	2	4
2019-2020	Tolpar Ufa (MHL)	17	10	12	22	31

Given Toronto’s stated preference for speed, skill, and smarts in their prospects, some of the available options at this point are not great fits, such as defender Kaiden Guhle, or forwards Connor Zary or Dawson Mercer. The Leafs could really go in many different directions here, including trading down a few spots to gain additional assets, but if I am keeping the pick, the best fits Toronto’s profile is Russian forward Amirov. He is physically underdeveloped, but his skill game is top six worthy, he reads the ice at a very mature level and can play at a good clip as well. Considering Toronto’s recent run of free agent signings from the KHL (Ozhiganov, Mikheyev, Barabanov), we know they are comfortable with bets on Russian talent.

#16 Montreal Canadiens – Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Chicoutimi (QMJHL)	48	13	32	45	18
2019-2020	Chicoutimi (QMJHL)	19	2	15	17	10

#17 - Chicago Blackhawks – John-Jason Peterka, LW/RW, EHC Munchen (DEL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Kamloops (WHL)	63	24	43	67	55
2019-2020	Kamloops (WHL)	57	38	48	86	51

#18 - New Jersey Devils (from Arizona Coyotes) – Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Prince Albert (WHL)	65	3	14	17	40
2019-2020	Prince Albert (WHL)	64	11	29	40	56

With Lucas Raymond already under wraps, and another first rounder coming up, the Devils can afford to diversify their approach, hearken back to the drafting of Ty Smith, and draft another defenseman from the WHL in the middle of the first round. Guhle is a much different style of defender than Smith but could be a complement to him as the other left handed defender in the top four. Guhle skates well and is one of the more physical defenders in this draft class.

#19 - Calgary Flames – Connor Zary, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Kamloops (WHL)	63	24	43	67	55
2019-2020	Kamloops (WHL)	57	38	48	86	51

#20- New Jersey Devils (from Vancouver Canucks) – Dawson Mercer, RW, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Drummondville (QMJHL)	68	30	34	64	50
2019-2020	Dru-Chi (QMJHL)	42	24	36	60	25

In this scenario, the Devils have already stocked up their system with Lucas Raymond and Brendan Guhle. In adding Mercer to their group, they get another talented winger who could team up in a few years with recent high-end picks like Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Michael McLeod. Mercer isn’t as flashy as Raymond – or as the centers – but he has excellent touch with the puck, and a highly advanced sense of where to be in the offensive zone to generate the most positive impact for his team. The WJC gold medalist from the 2020 event, he could be ready for the NHL faster than most other players still available.

#21 - Columbus Blue Jackets – Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan Cataractes

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Shawinigan (QMJHL)	64	25	29	54	30
2019-2020	Shawinigan (QMJHL)	49	29	42	71	30

If Columbus, which has not had their full complement of picks in recent years, as they have pushed to be a competitive playoff team, can be said to have a type, it is for instinctive forwards who play versatile games that could fit up and down the lineup. If there is a player available right now who could follow in the footsteps of Alexandre Texier and Liam Foudy, Bourque fits the bill. He has high end puck skills and instincts and plays a gritty game that maximizes his tools. The system is currently weaker on the blueline, but the draft class is forward heavy and those who should be considered in this range are already off the board (Schneider, Guhle). The drop off in forward talent between this pick and when Columbus picks again (4th round) is far steeper than the drop off among blueline prospects.

#22 - New York Rangers (from Carolina Hurricanes) – Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)

#23 - Philadelphia Flyers – Dylan Holloway, RW, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA/Big 10)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Okotoks (AJHL)	53	40	48	88	56
2019-2020	Wisconsin (B1G)	35	8	9	17	49

#24 - Washington Capitals – Lukas Reichel, LW, Eisbaren Berlin (DEL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Eisbaren Berlin U20 (Ger Jr)	32	11	31	42	4
2019-2020	Eisbaren Berlin (DEL)	42	12	12	24	0

#25 - Colorado Avalanche – Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea (SHL)

#26 - St. Louis Blues – Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago Steel (USHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Shattuck-St. Mary's (USHS-MN)	55	42	59	101	56
2018-2019	Green Bay (USHL)	6	1	0	1	2
2019-2020	Chicago (USHL)	45	24	35	59	50

#27 - Anaheim Ducks (from Boston Bruins) – Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago Steel (USHL)

YEAR	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM
2018-2019	Lawrence Academy (USHS-MA)	28	19	29	48	36
2018-2019	Chicago (USHL)	11	3	0	3	4
2019-2020	Chicago (USHL)	44	28	30	58	47