Aaron Luchuk – McKeen's Hockey

NHL TRADE DEADLINE: 22 Traded Prospects Ranked – Addison the Biggest Prize in 2020

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 25 Feb 2020 19:37:32 +0000

After bringing you brief introductions to virtually all of the prospects traded in this deadline season, we will now provide a definitive ranking of all prospects traded since January 1st, 2020. As a reminder of our criteria for defining a player as a prospect, he must have been 25 years old or younger as of September 15, 2019 (first day of the season) and have played less than 60 games over the course of his career (30 for goalies), and less than 35 games in a single season (20 for goalies).
22. Angus Redmond, G (Feb. 24 – Traded from Anaheim, along with a conditional 2022 7th round pick, to Edmonton in exchange for Joel Persson) – Honestly not much to say here. An ECHL goalie traded as a contract swap to allow Joel Persson to get a chance in the NHL as it wasn’t going to happen in Edmonton.

21. Andrew Sturtz, RW (Jan. 2-traded along with a 2021 5th round pick from Ottawa to Montreal in exchange for Mike Reilly)– Signed a two-year ELC after three years at Penn State. With the deal about to expire, Sturtz has been limited by injuries to only 41 games played and 14 points combined over two seasons between the AHL and the ECHL. OFP – 45

20. Nathan Noel, C (Feb. 24 – Traded from Chicago to Philadelphia in exchange for T.J. Brennan) – In his third year as a pro, the former fourth round pick has struggled to show that he can keep up at the AHL level and has spent all of this season in the ECHL. This trade smacks of being a favor to Brennan, an AHL veteran, who might get NHL time in Chicago, but not in Philly. Noel is unlikely to get an NHL contract after this season. OFP – 47

19. Aaron Luchuk, C (Feb. 19 – Traded from Toronto to Ottawa along with a conditional 6th round pick in 2021 for Max Veronneau; Feb. 24 – Traded from Ottawa along with a 2020 7th round pick to Montreal in exchange for Matthew Peca) – Since signing with Ottawa as an undrafted free agent out of the OHL two years ago, Luchuk has played 78 games in the ECHL and 31 in the AHL. He can score at the lower level but hasn’t yet shown he can contribute in the AHL, much less that he still has NHL upside. OFP – 48

18. David Quenneville, D (Feb. 16 – Traded along with a 2021 2nd round pick from the New York Islanders to New Jersey in exchange for Andy Greene) - After spending the entirety of his first professional season in the ECHL, Quenneville has split his sophomore campaign between the ECHL and the AHL. Short but a little stocky, he needs to produce big offensive numbers to get an NHL chance. OFP – 49

17. John Nyberg, D (Jan. 17 – Traded from Dallas to Pittsburgh in exchange for C Oula Palve) – Struggled in first North American season last year, but play has ticked up slightly this year. Rangy defender may have greater opportunity to reach the Show with the Penguins – 49

16. Jake Lucchini, LW (Feb. 20 – Traded from Pittsburgh along with Joseph Blandisi to Montreal in exchange for Riley Barber and Phil Varone) – Part of the 2019 crop of NCAA undrafted free agents, Lucchini has played a decent depth role in the AHL. He fits in among the other three players moved in this deal – all represent AHL talent with up-and-down NHL upside. OFP -49.75

15. Ryan Kuffner, LW (Feb. 24 – Traded from Detroit, along with Andreas Athanasiou to Edmonton, in exchange for Sam Gagner, and 2nd round picks in both 2020 and 2021) – A solid all-around forward at the collegiate level, Kuffner has been in a depth AHL role since signing with the Red Wings. He may get more of a chance to show what he can do in Bakersfield, which is less prospect heavy than Grand Rapids. OFP – 50

14. Slava Demin, D (Feb. 24 – Traded from Vegas, along with Malcolm Subban and a 2020 2nd round pick, to Chicago in exchange for Robin Lehner and Martins Dzierkals, with Toronto having sent the rights to Dzierkals in the trade and assuming a portion of Lehner’s remaining salary in exchange for a 2020 5th round pick) – Demin was a top performer as a junior in the BCHL but has played mostly third pairing minutes over two seasons at Denver, with very little special teams to show for it. He does enough well to expect better results when given the opportunity, which should arrive next year after Ian Mitchell leaves college for the pro ranks. OFP - 50

13. Max Veronneau, RW (Feb. 19 – Traded from Ottawa to Toronto in exchange for Aaron Luchuk and a conditional 2021 6th round pick) – Veronneau went straight from Princeton to the NHL late last season, even scoring twice for his hometown Senators. His first full season has been more of a slog in the AHL. Already 24, his window will only be open for a short while. OFP – 50.5

12. Danick Martel, LW (Feb. 20 – Traded from Tampa Bay in exchange for Anthony Greco) – Pint sized winger is a good offensive player at the AHL level, but injuries ruined what seemed like a good chance to make it with Tampa Bay last year. Talented, but would have more luck trying to build a career in Europe. OFP – 50.5

11. Mason Marchment, LW (Feb. 19 - Traded from Toronto to Florida for Denis Malgin) – A late blooming power forward who went from undrafted, to ECHL to AHL to NHL, Marchment is a feisty banger who has been developing his offensive game of late and could work his way into a lengthy career on a bottom line adding energy and snarl. OFP – 51.5

10. Martins Dzierkals, LW (Feb. 24 – Traded from Toronto to Vegas for a 2020 5th round pick and a portion of Robin Lehner’s salary, who Vegas had acquired in a separate trade with the Chicago Blackhawks) – Drafted out of the Latvian league in 2015, Dzierkals has since spent two seasons in the QMJHL, one in the ECHL, one in the KHL, and is currently playing in the Liiga with Jukurit. He is a fun player to watch but was clearly not in the Leafs’ future plans. Vegas, with less in the pipeline, might be able to entice him to come over to play in the AHL, but this trade was essentially about Toronto clearing a player from their reserve list and buying an extra fifth round pick for the $1.1 million (pro-rated) they have assumed from Lehner’s remaining cap hit. OFP – 52

9. Axel Andersson, D (Feb. 21 – Traded from Boston, along with a 2020 1st rounder and David Backes to Anaheim in exchange for Ondrej Kase) – If Ondrej Kase was worth a first rounder, then Andersson is the fee paid by the Bruins to sell the poison pill of the David Backes contract. Andersson is a two-way defender with a right handed shot who has #4/5 defender upside, but the fact that he was left off the Sweden WJC roster is eyebrow raising. OFP – 52.5

8. Julien Gauthier, RW (Feb. 18 – Traded from Carolina to the New York Rangers for Joey Keane) – Through three full seasons in the AHL, former first round pick Gauthier has only been given five games to show what he can do in the NHL. His AHL production has been pretty consistent, showing that he can score from the slot with regularity, but his other contributions can be limited. OFP – 53.5

7. Joey Keane, D (Feb. 18 – Traded from New York Rangers to Carolina for Julien Gauthier) – He was passed over in his first year of draft eligibility, but everything has been pointing upwards for Keane since then, and he made the AHL All Star Game as a rookie professional. Smooth pucker mover projects as a potential second pairing defender at his peak. OFP – 54

6. Chase Priskie, D (Feb. 24 – Traded from Carolina, along with Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, and Eetu Luostarinen to Florida in exchange for Vincent Trocheck) -Some collegiate free agent signings struggle to adapt to the pro game, but Priskie has had no such difficulty. The power play quarterback skates well and has a nice shot and he was the number two-point producer from the Charlotte blueline at the time of the trade. A nice side benefit of this deal is that Priskie, one of the NHL’s small but growing contingent of Floridians, is going home. OFP – 54.5

5. Eetu Luostarinen, C (Feb. 24 – Traded from Carolina, along with Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, and Chase Priskie to Florida in exchange for Vincent Trocheck) – Tall and rangy, Luostarinen was having a solid first season in North America before the trade. A finesse player with an abundance of skill and a promising off puck game, he should be close to the NHL. OFP – 54.5

4. Tyler Madden, C (Feb. 17 – Traded along with Tim Schaller, a 2020 2nd rounder and a conditional pick in 2022 from Vancouver to Los Angeles for Tyler Toffoli) – Drafted as a player very reminiscent of his father, Selke winner John Madden, Tyler has taken his game to new offensive heights over two years in Northeastern. Shut down defensive penalty killing center is still a floor, but now second line is a reasonable upside. OFP – 55

3. Nolan Foote, LW (Feb. 16 – Traded along with a 1st round pick in either 2020 or 2021 from Tampa Bay to New Jersey in exchange for Blake Coleman) – Less than a year after being selected in the first round, Foote is on the move. A big power forward with an NHL shot played a key role on Canada’s Gold Medal winning WJC team, but has scarcely played since, due to injury. Upside may be no higher than third line, but he is a pretty clear NHLer. OFP – 55

2. Janne Kuokkanen, LW/C (Feb. 24 – Traded from Carolina, along with Fredrik Claesson and a conditional 2020 4th round pick to New Jersey in exchange for Sami Vatanen) – A strong AHL performer who has only received 11 games in the NHL over his three years as a pro, he has all of the tools needed to play a middle six role in the NHL and could emerge as a key versatile middle six option on a young Devils’ team. OFP – 55.25

1. Calen Addison, D (Feb. 10 – Traded along with Alex Galchenyuk and a 2020 1st rounder from Pittsburgh to Minnesota for Jason Zucker) – Coming off a big WJC tournament for Gold Medal winning Canada, Addison is a power play quarterback who should make up with his offense what he gives back on D. Will turn pro next season. One of the best offensive defensemen in the CHL. OFP – 57

Ottawa Senators Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:49:27 +0000

I am sure that it comes as no surprise to you, the knowledgeable hockey fan, to read that the Ottawa Senators are in a bad place as an organization. Owner Eugene Melnyk meddling and bumbling through PR faux pas to the point that the team had to hire a PR firm for damage control; suspended assistant GM Randy Lee being arrested in Buffalo on salubrious harassment charges from an incident which occurred during the NHL Draft combine; the ongoing spat between former Senator Mike Hoffman (and his fiancée) and Senators’ super star Erik Karlsson (and his wife) that resulted in the former player being dealt to San Jose for a paltry return (who then traded him to Florida – an Ottawa division rival – for a greater return than he paid in the original acquisition); the ill-fated Matt Duchene trade, which, among other pieces, cost the Senators their 2017 first round pick Shane Bowers, as well as their choice of fist rounder in 2018 or 2019 – they chose to keep the 2018 pick.

It is still unclear if the team can hold on to Erik Karlsson, whose current contract is set to expire after the 2018-19 season and the word on the street is that has been frustrated by the direction and leadership of the franchise and would prefer to move on.

None of the above is necessarily news, or even really about prospects, per se. But it leads to the essential question, what comes next?

The Sens are largely expected to struggle this season, a projection that would not have been much different had Hoffman not been traded. It can be dangerous for any team to trade away its first round pick – especially without lottery protection – a full season in advance. Sure, San Jose has also moved its 2019 first rounder, but no one is really worried about that pick turning into Jack Hughes, or Kaapo Kakko, or any other top flight 2019 draft eligible.

For Ottawa, the presence of Matt Duchene may have the same impact as Tom Kurvers did for Toronto from 1989-1991, or Phil Kessel did for the same provincial rivals between 2009-2015. For those who forgot the recent history, Toronto traded a future to New Jersey for Kurvers, but their season did not turn out as they had expected internally and the pick turned into Scott Niedermayer, who now has a plaque in his honor in Toronto’s Hockey Hall of Fame. Kessel came to the Maple Leafs for two future first round picks. Because Brian Burke badly misjudged his squad’s place on the success cycle, both picks were top 10s, turning into Tyler Seguin (second overall) and Dougie Hamilton (ninth overall).

Unless Craig Anderson finds the fountain of youth for the third time at age 37, the Senators might not get their reward for being among the worst teams in the league. With top prospects Colin White and Brady Tkachuk expected in some circles to graduate from prospecthood this season, and no first round pick on deck, the Senators might need to trade Karlsson to have any truly high end prospects still in the pipeline. Without some combination of luck and shrewd management, neither of which has been associated with Ottawa for some time, the organization may be beginning a stretch of ugliness reminiscent of what divisional rival Buffalo Sabres had being going through for the past five seasons.

Brady Tkachuk

1 Brady Tkachuk, LW (4^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Son of Keith and brother of Matthew, Brady Tkachuk has the blood lines as well as the skill set and mentality to play a key role on a winning NHL team. He has a big, strong frame and plays a power game, but with soft enough hands to make tricky plays and surprise with a feint as he powers his way to the net or through the cycle. In addition to having all of the raw tools one could ask for in a young winger, his sense for the game may have been the best among anyone in the 2018 draft class. He did not dominate, but played at a very high level as a true freshman in the NCAA – one of the youngest players in collegiate hockey. He recently announced that he would leave BU and has a good chance to spend the year in the NHL, although AHL and OHL are still possibilities.

2 Logan Brown, C (11^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 3^rd) Between Brown and Tkachuk, the future Senators will not lack for size up front. Thankfully, these two also fit the bill for the modern game with skills and mobility to go with their bulk. For the second straight year, Brown was held back by injuries, but when he was healthy, took his game to another level, scoring more frequently, leading Kitchener deep into the OHL playoffs one year after helping Windsor win the Memorial Cup. He even looked good in his truncated appearance for Team USA at the WJC. The most impressive facets of his game are his soft and skilled hands, and his hockey IQ. He has a pro game, but the lost development time may make his path to the NHL slower than hoped.

3 Colin White, RW/C (21^st overall, 2015. Last Year: 2^nd) A fantastic skater with plus hockey sense, White started last season in the NHL, but shelved due to a wrist injury. Upon his recovery, he went back to the AHL, where he was often the best player on the ice for Belleville, earning a lengthy recall to Ottawa that encompassed the first six weeks of 2018. He has above average offensive tools as well, although they are not as notable as his reads and decision making. He can play both on the wing and up the middle and is likely to win a bottom six role to open this season. His history with Boston College and the USNTDP before that suggests that he could eventually work his way up to a second line role although third line on a good team is most likely.

4 Filip Gustavsson, G (55^th overall, 2016 [Pittsburgh]. Last Year: 2^nd [Pittsburgh]) There were a lot of moving parts in the three way deadline deal that sent Derrick Brassard from Ottawa to Pittsburgh, but it is fair to summarize the return to Ottawa as being a late first round pick (Bernard-Docker) and Gustavsson, who now wears the mantle of “Goalie of the Future” for the Senators. A very athletic netminder who is advanced at reading the play, he was coming off a strong season in Sweden, both domestically with Lulea, and internationally, backstopping Sweden to a Silver Medal at the WJC. His movements are quick and precise and allow him to challenge shooters aggressively knowing he can recover if needed. He should get at least one season in the AHL before the future becomes the present in Ottawa.

Alex Formenton

5 Alex Formenton, LW (47^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 11^th) One of the fastest skaters in the OHL last year, Formenton was so impressive in the pre-season for Ottawa that he broke camp in the NHL shortly after his 18^th birthday and played in one game before being returned to London. He is still young enough, and talented enough, that he was one of the few legit prospects not traded by the Knights as they began to regroup. Despite his near-elite speed, Formenton is not a great offensive threat. That is not to say that he is not a contributor to the attack, but that offense is generally not the focus of his game. He is a defensive specialist and fights a lot harder than his lean figure might suggest. A PK weapon, he also began to show a creative side with the puck last year and may have more to offer at that end given time.

6 Drake Batherson, C (121^st overall, 2017. Last Year: 12^th) A late bloomer who keeps on blooming, Batherson went from the Maritime Junior Hockey League to a top six role with a competitive QMJHL team to a national hero in the space of 24 months. Despite scoring seven goals (without a single assist) in seven games at the WJC he is more of a playmaker than a finisher. On the other hand, he has incredible hand-eye coordination and could build for himself a long NHL career if all he does is park himself in the slot and wait for shots to deflect. He has a solid frame, but needs to add more bulk to play that role as a professional. Could also stand to improve his skating, although he has a nice burst of speed available.

7 Jonny Tychonick, D (48^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) A dominant two-way defender for the Penticton Vees of the BCHL for the past two seasons, Tychonick was a rare Tier 1 player to receive consideration for the Canadian U18 squad. He catches the eye with his fantastic skating acumen and backs it up with a solid point shot and great puck control. He is on the lean side and it can be hard to adequately gauge the hockey sense of players playing in lower quality development leagues, but to his credit, he made the best of the path that he was on. The North Dakota commit was also entrusted with time killing penalties and shifts against the toughest competition the BCHL had to offer. He is at least three years away from NHL, but has enough upside to be worth waiting on.

8 Jacob Bernard-Docker, D (26^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Like Tychonick above, Jacob Bernard-Docker was a cut above as a dominant blueliner in Tier 1 in Western Canada. Named the Most Outstanding Defenseman in the AJHL, JBD has a full set of tools, grading out as above average in terms of his mobility and with anything a defenseman might do with the puck. Although a bit beefier than Tychonick, Bernard-Docker is less likely to use his frame to physically impose himself on opponents. Although less dynamic than his new organization mate and soon to be teammate at the University of North Dakota, Bernard-Docker is more advanced in his own zone. He is skilled at shutting down opposing attacks and beginning the transition. He is the safer prospect of the two, and not without upside of his own.

9 Johnny Gruden, LW (95^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Every year the USNTDP has a few players in middle six or bottom six roles who thrive once the hackles are taken off at the collegiate level. Johnny Gruden, whose father just coached the Hamilton Bulldogs to an OHL title, is most notable for his hockey smarts, but there is enough skill in his stick to be a pretty big factor at Miami starting next season. A lot of his offense with the program came from sensing where to position himself and when to strike. He does a lot of small, subtle things to help his game play up. He also has sneaky speed, helping him get to where he needs to go and trip up opponents on occasion when he suddenly changes gears.

10 Christian Wolanin, D (107^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 13^th) An NCAA champ as a freshman, Wolanin improved his produced for North Dakota year over year before turning pro after his junior season. He is not the fleetest of foot, although his first few steps are fairly impressive. His production comes as a traditional point man of sorts. He has a quick release on his snap shot, which can find twine or get a rebound. He is willing to step up past the faceoff dots and has the vision to hit a teammate in a better scoring area. He was an offense first defenseman as a collegian, and a brief NHL trial showed that he could play that game in the NHL, and there seems to be room for him in the NHL rotation right now. He will likely need to be protected somewhat as his defensive zone game is a bit on the raw side.

11 Aaron Luchuk, C (UDFA: Dec. 26, 2017. Last Year: IE) Never drafted, Luchuk spent three and a half seasons with the Windsor Spitfires, playing a critical role in their 2017 Memorial Cup victory, before he was traded to the Barrie Colts in mid-December. He was already only seven points away from a career high, but his season would only get better. Much better. He already had 51 points in 30 games at the time of the trade. 11 days later, he signed an ELC as a free agent with Ottawa, and finished the season with 81 more points in 50 regular season and postseason games with Barrie. Despite the sensational point totals, he lacks dynamic offensive skills, although does everything pretty well. His size also works against him, although he is willing to fight for space and loose pucks. He is a player, if probably not a high end one.

Andreas Englund

12 Andreas Englund, D (40^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 9^th) Very big, but very impressive afoot, especially for his size, Englund has been hampered thus far in his career by his complete lack of any offensive elements to his game. He is clearly more comfortable playing in his own zone as he has played the role of stay-at-home blueliner since his amateur days. Englund’s puck skills extend as far as retrieving the puck and getting to a teammate, who can get it out of the Belleville end. He has had a few short NHL cups of coffee in each of the last two years since coming over from Sweden, and should be in line for a bit more this season.

13 Patrick Sieloff, D (Trade: Jun. 27, 2016 [Calgary]. Last Year: not ranked) Acquired from Calgary two summers ago for Alex Chaisson, Sieloff has played in a single NHL game for both NHL organizations to which he has belonged, and scored a goal in each. That statistical fluke aside, offense is not really his jam. Sieloff is built thick and plays tough, sometimes overly so. He can get in trouble with his aggressiveness, such as when he concussed teammate Clarke MacArthur in training camp. He also skates well, getting to top speed rapidly and is reliably competent in his own zone. He is primed to battle it out this year for the distinction of opening camp as the team’s #6/7 defender.

14 Maxime Lajoie, D (133^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 14^th) A solid skater who plays a fairly polished game on both sides of the puck, Lajoie had a decent rookie pro season last year, especially considering the circumstances of injuries that caused him to miss over 20 games and the fact that Belleville had a very bad hockey club last year. He was able to demonstrate an impressive ability to process the game, and he is able to transition the puck from zone to zone thanks to his mobility and puck handling skills. Lajoie is still on the slight side and needs a full, healthy season to give us a better idea of how his development will play out.

Gabriel Gagne

15 Gabriel Gagne, RW (36^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 20^th) Gagne’s permanently raw collection of tools were unable to have much of an impact in his first pro season, leading to a humbling stretch in the ECHL. His follow-up campaign was much better. He went from barely getting one shot on net per game to leading Belleville with 177 shots and a team high 20 goals. The paltry assist total (5) looks bad, but there wasn’t anyone else on the team who could score, so there were only so many assists to go around. Gagne is still growing into his lanky 6-5” frame, but he skates well, has above average puck skills, including a deadly shot from medium range and he knows how to put his body to good use. He is the player in this system who improved the most season over season.

16 Christian Jaros, D (139^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 5^th) As many of the other young blueliners in the system – particularly those with AHL experience – are either purely offensive or purely defensive defenders, Jaros stands out as having a more well-balanced game. Despite missing too much time to injuries in his first year in North America, he had good results for Belleville, and earned a few games with the Senators as well. He has a powerful point shot and moves the puck with skill. He is big and physical, without being mean. He has enough mobility to not be a weak link, although skating is not his strength. Of all of the defensemen in the second half of this list, Jaros has the highest likelihood of being more than a third pairing defender over time.

17 Filip Chlapik, C (48^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 8^th) Considering how well Chlapik did in his first pro season, leading Belleville in scoring despite missing 24 games, and playing in 20 games in the NHL, it may seem odd to see him ranked relatively low. Adding to the cognitive dissonance here is the fact that Chlapik is probably the first center to be called up again in case of injury. The answer lies in his lack of tools, or dynamic elements to his game. The big, Czech forward is a below average skater whose hands are soft and he can make some plays at the AHL level, but we doubt he has enough flash to create offense on his own in the NHL. He is an intelligent and has learned how to play within his limitations, at least at the QMJHL level, but he has further to go to prove he can do it at the highest levels.

18 Kevin Mandolese, G (157^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) In terms of pure ability from a physical standpoint, Mandolese may have been the best netminder available in the 2018 draft. Unfortunately, his performance never matched his visuals for long stretches and he split the season with QMJHL veteran Kyle Jessiman. He is a solid shot blocker who reads plays well and can be credited for improving upon his consistency in net over the course of the last year. Further to his credit, the defense in front of him was poor last year, so he may not have been fully at fault for his mediocre numbers, especially as they were markedly better than his partner. He needs to do a better job of keeping his arms up in the butterfly to prevent more rush goals. For now, he is a goalie to watch, instead of to plan around.

19 Julius Bergman, D (Trade: Jun. 19, 2018 [San Jose]. Last Year: 17^th [San Jose]) A big part of the return from San Jose in the Mike Hoffman deal, Bergman has had an up and down professional career since the Sharks made him a second round pick in 2014. Last season had its own mini ups and downs as he found a way to make his shot count more often, netting a career high ten goals, while he continued to struggle – sometimes mightily so – in his own zone. Seen as an offensive defenseman as an amateur, he still flashes those tools, but has never really developed his off-puck game. He may have more of a chance in the Ottawa system, but he will still need to show more consistent commitment first.

20 Andrew Sturtz, RW (Mar. 28, 2018. Last Year: IE) The first foray into the college free agent the Senators have made in a while, Sturtz already has some experience with the Ottawa area, having spent his pre-college years playing in Carleton Place in the CCHA. A smaller player who plays a bigger game than he should, but earned attention thanks to his puck skills. Sturtz is blessed with strong hands, very good hand-eye coordination and slippery puck control skills. His shot is only so-so, but he has a knack for getting himself into prime scoring position. He also skates well, which made him elusive in the collegiate ranks. He will have to prove himself in Belleville first, but he is worth keeping an eye on.

OHL Playoff Preview: Greyhounds pacing the pack

Brock Otten — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 20:51:07 +0000

The 2018 Ontario Hockey League playoffs kick off this week after the regular season wrapped up this past weekend. Heading into the playoffs, the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds are the clear favorites to come out of the OHL and represent the league at the Memorial Cup in Regina. They have spent the vast majority of the season as the top ranked team in the CHL, one of only two teams to chart the entire season (along with Blainville-Boisbriand of the QMJHL). But competition is always fierce and there are no sure bets in the OHL. Let us now take a look at each first round match-up.

Eastern Conference

#1 - Hamilton Bulldogs vs. #8 - Ottawa 67’s

Season Series: Hamilton leads 5-0

Will Bitten of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: The Conference Champion Bulldogs face off against the 67’s after the Steelheads won on the final Sunday, securing the number 7 seed. Hamilton has been the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference for the vast majority of the season. They have been extremely active in trades this year to give them the best chance of coming out of the East. The Bulldogs added Robert Thomas (St. Louis), Riley Stillman (Florida), Nic Caamano (Dallas), Ryan Moore, and Nic Mattinen (Toronto) to an already stacked lineup, giving Ottawa an extremely daunting challenge in round one. This team rolls three powerhouse offensive lines with Matthew Strome (Philadelphia), Will Bitten (Montreal), Mackenzie Entwistle (Arizona), Marian Studenic (New Jersey), and Brandon Saigeon being other top options. Forward Arthur Kaliyev (2019) is another name to watch. He is the first 16 year old to score 30 goals in the OHL since Alex Galchenyuk and he is a potential lottery pick next year as a power winger. In net, the Bulldogs boast one of the OHL’s most improved players this year in Kaden Fulcher (Detroit).

Kevin Bahl of the Ottawa 67's. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Ottawa, on the other hand, is a very young team. In a few years’ time, they could be Memorial Cup contenders. They could have five players drafted in the first three rounds this year (Kody Clark, Mitchell Hoelscher, Merrick Rippon, Kevin Bahl, and Carter Robertson). Offensively, they are paced by Sasha Chmelevski (San Jose), Travis Barron (Colorado), Austen Keating (2018) and Tye Felhaber. Chmelevski was a much hyped prospect who fell hard at last year’s draft (all the way to the 6th), but he has returned much stronger this season. His play away from the puck has greatly improved and it has taken his game to another level. But for all their talent offensively, the 67’s have had a very difficult time keeping the puck out of their own net this year. Overager Olivier Tremblay has not provided the stability that the team had hoped for when they brought him in early this year.

This one has all the makings of a quick series. This Ottawa team, as talented as they are young, is not yet ready for this type of challenge. The Bulldogs are one of the deepest teams in the OHL and their offensive firepower is likely to overwhelm an inexperienced defense and inconsistent netminder. One particular thing worth watching is the 67’s struggling penalty kill going up against one of the league’s best powerplay units from Hamilton. This has to be troubling for Ottawa because they also happen to be one of the league’s most undisciplined teams. And while Ottawa does have some great young offensive talent, the Bulldogs have one of the oldest defensive units in the league and are likely to limit the offensive chances of the 67’s. I look for Robert Thomas to have a big series here (and a big playoff performance overall). His points per game has taken a big dip since joining the Bulldogs, but I think he explodes this postseason.

Prediction: This Hamilton team is just too experienced and too talented for the 67’s. They have the advantage in nearly every area and should dominate. If Ottawa was getting better goaltending, I would say that they might be able to steal a game or two, but I do not even see that happening. Hamilton in 4.

#2 - Barrie Colts vs. #7 - Mississauga Steelheads

Season Series: Mississauga leads 4-2

Michael McLeod of the Mississauga Steelheads. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: If I was a betting man, I would bet that this is the match-up that Barrie wanted to avoid in the opening round. In fact, it was probably the match-up every team wanted to avoid in the first round. Mississauga has underachieved all season long, but they have shown some signs of finally coming to life the last month or so. Offensive talent is not to be questioned. Their first two lines include names like Michael McLeod (New Jersey), Ryan McLeod (2018), Owen Tippett (Florida), Trent Fox, Albert Michnac (2018), and Mathieu Foget. This group of six matches up well against any top six in the Eastern Conference and it helps to explain why the Steelheads are the third highest scoring team in the Conference. And this excludes their leading scorer, defenseman Nic Hague (Vegas), who was the first OHL defender to score 30+ since Allan Rourke. But keeping the puck out has been a challenge at times. Swedish import and defensive stalwart Jacob Moverare (Los Angeles) has been injured and that has really challenged their younger defensive players to play more minutes than they are ready for. Furthermore, young netminder Jacob Ingham (2018) has had an awful sophomore season that has seen him essentially lose the starting job to Emanuel Vella.

Andrei Svechnikov of the Barrie Colts. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

This is potentially trouble because Barrie is the highest scoring team in the Conference and the 3rd highest scoring in the OHL. Their first line of Andrei Svechnikov (2018), Aaron Luchuk (Ottawa), and Dmitry Sokolov (Minnesota) has been absolutely shredding teams of late. The supporting offensive cast includes guys like Ryan Suzuki (2019), Jason Willms (2018), and Zach Magwood who work extremely hard in all three zones and bring energy that exhausts the opposition so that the first line can go to work. The Colts do not have any stars on the blueline, but they are a tight knit unit who work well with Barrie’s forwards to play a terrific team defense. In net, overager Leo Lazerev starts and while he does not necessarily win any games outright for the Colts, he is a mostly reliable presence. It should be noted that he has yet to win an OHL playoff series in his career and probably goes into this match-up with just as many question marks as Mississauga’s tenders.

There is no question that this is not your average #2 versus #7 seed match-up. This is especially true when you consider the fact that Mississauga largely dominated the season series, winning all three games in the new year by a combined score of 18-10. For whatever reason, the speed of Mississauga’s forwards gives the defense of Barrie a tough time and Lazerev has an .840 save percentage against the Fish this season. This is complicated even more by the fact that Andrei Svechnikov has been suspended for the first four games of the series for a head check. But I admit, I have a tough time picking Mississauga to win this series. I do not trust their defense to be able to handle Barrie’s depth up front. And if these games go to an offensive shootout like they did in the regular season, I think Barrie ends up coming out on top this time. Mississauga’s Mathieu Foget has also been suspended for the first four games of the series and his loss might actually be felt more because of Mississauga’s lack of depth. His acquisition really triggered the turnaround for the team. Barrie also needs to stay out of the box. In the regular season, they gave Mississauga almost double the amount of powerplays that they received and it cost them dearly with the Steelheads clicking at over 30% with the man advantage. If they can stay out of the box, and Lazerev can make a few saves, I still like Barrie to come out on top.

Prediction: The result of this series would not surprise me either way, even with the difference in seeding. But depth is critical in the playoffs and Barrie has the advantage there. I am excited to see how the Svechnikov/Luchuk/Sokolov unit handles the pressure of the playoffs. Svechnikov, in particular, can really cement himself as the #2 prospect available in the draft with a strong postseason performance once he returns from suspension (as long as Barrie does not get swept). Barrie in 7.

#3 - Kingston Frontenacs vs. #6 - North Bay Battalion

Season Series: Kingston leads 3-1

Gabriel Vilardi of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: This is an intriguing match-up because of how differently these two teams approached the OHL season. Kingston brought in Gabe Vilardi (Los Angeles), Max Jones (Anaheim), Cliff Pu (Buffalo), Sean Day (New York Rangers), and Mitchell Byrne at the deadline to bolster an already solid line-up and make them contenders to come out of the East. While they failed to secure a division banner, the results post deadline have been mostly extremely positive. A healthy and re-invigorated Vilardi has provided the biggest boost, as his 1.87 points per game in Kingston is second to only Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis) in the OHL. His strength, on and off the puck, makes him a dominant force in all three zones and the type of player who works to tire and grind out opposing defenses.

Justin Brazeau of the North Bay Battalion. Photo by Terry Wilson /OHL Images,

The North Bay Battalion were sellers at the deadline this year, shipping out veterans Cam Dineen (Arizona), and Brett McKenzie (Vancouver). Those moves only worked to light a fire under the Battalion roster and the team actually improved their record in the New Year thanks to the play of new acquisitions Matthew Struthers (2018), and Jake Henderson, as well as veterans Justin Brazeau (2018), and Adam Thilander (2018). Brazeau, in particular, is a player to watch. The 6-5” winger finished just inside the Top 20 of league scoring and was named as the East’s most underrated player in the recent coaches poll that was released.

If we are measuring up these two teams, we need to give the edge to Kingston in nearly every area. The Fronts lead the season series 3-1, winning the three most recent games (February on). The biggest advantage Kingston has is in net with Jeremy Helvig (Carolina) manning the crease. The overager and veteran netminder has 19 OHL playoff games under his belt and is unquestionably one of the league’s top netminders. Meanwhile, the Battalion will rely on either Christian Propp (2018) or Julian Sime, who have a combined zero OHL playoff appearances. Kingston also has a heavy advantage on special teams, with their powerplay and penalty killing units operating at a higher level. With Robertson and Vilardi operating down low on the powerplay, North Bay is going to need to stay out of the box to have any chance in this series. One wild card to keep an eye on is the health of Max Jones. Jones has been out since the end of January after undergoing surgery on a broken finger. It is likely he returns at some point in these playoffs and he can be a major x-factor.

Prediction: Ultimately, Kingston’s experience and leadership should carry them to a relatively easy victory in this match-up. Gabe Vilardi and Sean Day won a Memorial Cup together last year. Mitchell Byrne won an OHL Championship last year. And Cliff Pu and Max Jones won an OHL Title and Memorial Cup in 2016. Kingston in 5.

#4 - Niagara IceDogs vs. #5 - Oshawa Generals

Season Series: Tied at 1 game apiece

Akil Thomas of the Niagara IceDogs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: Two teams that do not see a ton of each other match-up in round one. Niagara and Oshawa also happen to be two of the hotter teams in the OHL heading into the playoffs. The IceDogs are a team that rely on speed and energy to play an up tempo and offensively oriented style of game. They get after it on the forecheck and have a powerplay that has been much improved since the acquisition of overager Sam Miletic (Pittsburgh) from London. On top of Miletic, Niagara has a trio of offensive weapons that they rely on in Kirill Maksimov (Edmonton), Akil Thomas (2018), and Ben Jones (Vegas).

Jack Studnicka of the Oshawa Generals. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Oshawa, on the other hand, prefers to slow things down and grind it out in the offensive end. Their fearless leader is Jack Studnicka (Boston), an excellent two-way center who makes an impact in so many different ways. A pair of first time draft eligible forwards support Studnicka; Serron Noel (2018), and Allan McShane (2018). Defenseman Matt Brassard (Vancouver) is also critical to their offensive success. He was one of the highest scoring defenders in the league in the second half and finished the year 7th in defensive scoring.

If we are truly comparing these two teams, it is difficult to determine who has a clear advantage. In goal, the nod should be given to Oshawa and their starter Kyle Keyser (Boston). Keyser has been a stable presence in net this year, definitely more so than Stephen Dhillon who has struggled for Niagara this year, or the inexperienced Colton Incze. Up front, I give the slight edge to Niagara because of their explosiveness and depth. On defense, the two teams boast slightly inexperienced units who are mobile, but can be mistake prone. Ultimately, I see two things possibly tipping the favor in Niagara’s direction. The first is special teams play. As mentioned, Niagara’s powerplay has been performing at a high level lately and Oshawa has one of the league’s worst penalty killing units. The second is home ice advantage, which Niagara owns after finishing the regular season on a 7 game winning streak.

Prediction: With home ice advantage, better special teams play, and a slightly more explosive offense, I like Niagara to win this series. Their goaltending concerns me slightly, but between Dhillon or Incze, they should be able to make enough big saves to at least get the IceDogs into the second round. But this one will be close. Niagara in 7.

Western Conference

#1 - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. #8 - Saginaw Spirit

Season Series: SSM leads 7-1

Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson

Analysis: The juggernaut Greyhounds kick off their Memorial Cup push against the Saginaw Spirit, whose five game losing streak to end the season forced them down the standings and into this first round match-up. Sault Ste. Marie has nine NHL draft picks on their roster and two more potential first rounders for 2018. Up front, Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay), Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim), Tim Gettinger (New York Rangers), Barrett Hayton (2018), and the underrated Hayden Verbeek pace the attack. But the real star is OHL 2nd leading scorer Morgan Frost (Philadelphia), one of the breakout stars of this season. On the backend, the Hounds are equally strong, led by Conor Timmins (Colorado), and Rasmus Sandin (2018). Neither seem to make a mistake with the puck and both are just as good in their own end as they are offensively. In net, Matthew Villalta (Los Angeles) has been a steady presence who makes the saves when he needs to.

Evan Cormier of the Saginaw Spirit. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Saginaw’s strength actually starts in net where overager Evan Cormier (New Jersey) keeps the Spirit in a lot of games that they do not deserve to be in. This is important because the Spirit struggle to score goals. They were only one of three teams in the OHL to not score 200 goals on the season and the other two finished dead last in their conferences (Flint and Sudbury). Furthermore, their powerplay was a league worst 14.7%. There is definitely some offensive talent on this team, but the team’s best days are ahead of them as guys like Blade Jenkins (2018), Nicholas Porco (2019), Ryan Stepien (2020), Aidan Prueter (2020), and Damien Giroux (2018) gain experience. In fact, the team’s only NHL drafted forward, Brady Gilmour (Detroit) finished 9th in team scoring.

In all honesty, this series should not be close and is not likely to be close. The Spirit have a talented young roster, but they are not currently an equal to the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie has the advantage in nearly every area except maybe goaltending. Even then, Evan Cormier can only do so much. Heck, we might see the Greyhounds score more shorthanded goals than the Spirit score powerplay goals in the series.

Prediction: I want to say that Evan Cormier can do enough to steal a game for the Spirit in this series, but I cannot even see the Spirit winning a game. The Greyhounds are just too strong. SSM in 4.

#2 - Kitchener Rangers vs. #7 - Guelph Storm

Season Series: Kitchener leads 5-3

Logan Brown of the Kitchener Rangers. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: This is an interesting first round match-up between two teams that did not end the regular season the way they wanted to. Kitchener, a strong team all season, struggled down the stretch, although managed to hang on to their Division crown. Meanwhile, the Guelph Storm were one of the league’s worst teams in the last few months that saw them lose their grip on the #6 spot in the West. Kitchener loaded up at the deadline by bringing in Logan Brown (Ottawa), Givani Smith (Detroit), Mario Culina, and Austin McEneny. I think it would be fair to say that Kitchener is still waiting to see the best out of three of those four, with Culina playing well so far as a starter. It has been the guys around all season like Adam Mascherin (Florida), Kole Sherwood (Columbus), Joseph Gareffa, Logan Stanley (Winnipeg), and Riley Damiani (2018) that have been driving the team’s success. Moving into the playoffs, it will be about whether the newer faces can finally find chemistry or not. The health of defensive stalwart Connor Hall (Pittsburgh) could also impact the series.

Ryan Merkley of the Guelph Storm. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Guelph, as mentioned, has also struggled down the stretch, especially when it comes to preventing goals. Goaltender Anthony Popovich (2018) appeared to tire of late after seeing a huge jump in workload this season. The defensive group, led by Ryan Merkley (2018), and Dmitri Samorukov (Edmonton) also struggled, to the point where Merkley was a healthy scratch at times down the stretch. The Storm do have a hard working forward group who is capable of icing multiple scoring lines. The offensive leaders are unquestionably Isaac Ratcliffe (Philadelphia) and Cam Hillis (2018), who along with Alexei Toropchenko (St. Louis) form a quality first line.

Looking at this series a little more under the microscope, it is probably closer than people are making it out to be. The special teams match-up pretty well. Neither team has a dominant goaltender that one would qualify as a game-changer (no offense meant to Culina or Popovich). Both teams struggled down the stretch with team chemistry issues. The tipping point for me is experience. The Rangers have the clear advantage there, especially on the defensive end. Guys like Logan Stanley and Austin McEneny, who won a Memorial Cup together with Windsor last year, should really help to stabilize things, even without Connor Hall. I also look for longtime Rangers like Mascherin or Connor Bunnaman (Philadelphia) to really step up offensively to get this team over the first round hump.

Prediction: As mentioned, I feel like Kitchener’s experience advantage will help them come out on top in this series. I also feel that they have a much better team defense approach that likely plays out better for success in the playoffs. Guelph has talent, but they play a very high risk game that, without a ton of playoff experience, could be their undoing. It will be close, but Kitchener in 6.

#3 - Sarnia Sting vs. #6 - Windsor Spitfires

Season Series: Sarnia leads 5-1

Michael DiPietro of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: No offense meant to the rest of the Windsor Spitfires, but this match-up is about two things. The Sarnia offense (2nd best in the OHL) versus the goaltending of Michael DiPietro (Vancouver). The dynamic DiPietro is one of the few goaltenders in the OHL who is capable of stealing a series victory for his team. The Spitfires rebuilt, dealing off the majority of their veterans held over from their Memorial Cup victory last year, but decided to hang on to their star netminder for this reason. They battle hard in the offensive end behind the likes of Curtis Douglas (2018), Cole Purboo (2018), Cody Morgan (2019), Luke Boka, and Matthew MacDougall (2018). And they play smart in their own end thanks to Connor Corcoran (2018), Nathan Staios (2019), Grayson Ladd (2019), and Zach Shankar. But this team has zero NHL drafted players outside of DiPietro and are incredibly inexperienced.

Jordan Kyrou of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

The Sting, conversely, were one of the biggest buyers throughout this OHL season, bringing in talented veterans like Cam Dineen (Arizona), Jonathan Ang (Florida), and Michael Pezzetta (Montreal). The lifeblood of the team is Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis), the league’s leader in points per game this year and possibly the best offensive player in the OHL. He is currently zero for three in first round appearances and is likely to do everything in his power to finally reach the second round (and beyond). You could likely argue that overager Justin Fazio is the team’s second most important player in the series, especially considering that he has to match-up against DiPietro. The margin for error is slim.

One of Sarnia’s biggest strengths is on the powerplay where Kyrou, Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), and Drake Rymsha (Los Angeles) have a combined 34 powerplay goals this year. Problem is, Windsor takes among the least amount of penalties in the OHL so as long as Windsor can continue to stay out of the box, Sarnia is going to need to beat DiPietro 5 on 5. The question I have is, how will Windsor manage to score goals, at least enough goals to win this 7 game series? It will not be with the man advantage either (likely) as the Sting have the league’s top penalty killing unit. I am slightly worried about Sarnia’s inexperienced defense though, but that concern is more directed towards round two or three (if the Sting advance that far). Sarnia will need big guys like Ruzicka, Pezzetta, Jordan Ernst, and Hugo Leufvenius (2018) to crowd DiPietro’s space as much as possible and really make him uncomfortable. Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. Windsor fans can tell you, sometimes the best way to beat Michael DiPietro is through sheer luck and bad bounces.

Prediction: As much as I want to predict a Windsor victory, I do not see it in the cards. DiPietro will steal a few games and he will make Sarnia sweat. But the offensive firepower of Sarnia, combined with the inexperience of Windsor’s defense is likely to give the Sting too many scoring chances for the Spitfires’ star netminder to handle. Sarnia in 6.

#4 - Owen Sound Attack vs. #5 - London Knights

Season Series: London leads 4-2

Evan Bouchard of the London Knights. Photo by Terry Wilson/OHL Images.

Analysis: As is usually the case, the 4/5 matchup in the Western Conference looks to be the closest match-up of the first round, and subsequently the most difficult to prognosticate. London traded off the vast majority of their big guns to retool to fight another day. Instead, the team played inspired hockey down the stretch led by a host of younger players eager to make their mark. When talking about London, we have to start with defenseman Evan Bouchard (2018), the lifeblood of the Knights. His 87 points are the highest by a blueliner since Ryan Ellis hit the 100 point mark in 2011. The speedy Alex Formenton (Ottawa) is also playing the best hockey of his OHL career thus far with 12 goals in 14 games to close out the regular season. And you cannot talk about London without mentioning how good the “kid” line of Liam Foudy (2018), Billy Moskal (2018), and Nathan Dunkley (2018) has been since the trade deadline. This trio was challenged to step up their games with increased ice time and they all responded accordingly.

Owen Sound Attack of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Owen Sound, on the other hand, was expected to be one of the top teams in the OHL this year but struggled to keep their star players healthy all year and subsequently struggled to perform consistently. That is, until the last few months when they have been, arguably, the OHL’s best. This team is scary good when healthy and they are now finally healthy. They roll three outstanding scoring lines, including a top unit of Jonah Gadjovich (Vancouver), Kevin Hancock (2018), and Nick Suzuki (Vegas) that has been one of the OHL’s best over the last two seasons. They also have one of the OHL’s top offensive blueliners in Sean Durzi (2018), who if he did not get injured, likely could have challenged Bouchard for the defenceman scoring title. It is in net where Owen Sound has struggled this season as Olivier Lafreniere and Mack Guzda (2019) have battled to find consistency. No question, Owen Sound has to have their offense rolling to win because they are not going to win many 2-1 games.

So who has the advantage going into this match-up? Experience wise, the nod has to be given to Owen Sound...and by a wide margin. The Attack are returning the vast majority of a roster that lost in the Conference finals last season. The Knights are an extremely well coached team, but they are relying on a lot of rookies and sophomores in key roles and that can often prove to be a recipe for disaster in the postseason. The deciding factor in this series probably comes down to the goaltending. So long as Owen Sound can get at least adequate goaltending from one of Lafreniere or Guzda, they should win this series. But if their goaltending struggles and team is forced to constantly play catch-up, the series tips in London’s favor, a team with nothing to lose.

Prediction: I have to give the nod to Owen Sound here because now that they are fully healthy, they look like a tough team to stop. This is especially true for a team as inexperienced as London; even if they are extremely talented. The Attack can get the saves they need to win this one, even if London pushes them and makes them sweat. Owen Sound in 6

OHL Finals Prediction

When the field is finally narrowed down to two teams who battle it out for OHL supremacy, I expect those two teams to be the Kingston Frontenacs and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

From the East I like Kingston for a couple reasons. The first is experience. As I already alluded to, they have a lot of players on that roster who have already won a Memorial Cup or OHL Championship (or both). That type of leadership goes a long way in the playoffs. The second is special teams play. The great Scotty Bowman always said combined special teams play was a great indicator of postseason success. Well the Fronts have the best powerplay in the league and the second best penalty kill. The third is goaltending. Jeremy Helvig is a veteran netminder who is about as consistent as they come. I have a ton of confidence in his ability to make saves when he needs to.

From the West, I like the Soo Greyhounds as they have looked about as dominant as anyone in the OHL has over the last few years. Their 116 points is the most since Barrie put up 116 in 2010. This team has it all. Special teams success. Good goaltending. Speed. Physicality. But most of all...depth. Drew Bannister’s players rarely seem to take a shift off and they rarely make mistakes with the puck. That composure at both ends of the ice makes them the favorite.

For the OHL Title, I am taking the Soo Greyhounds to win their first J. Ross Robertson Cup since they won back to back championships in the early 90ś.