adam larsson – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 19:53:44 +0000

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 12: Seattle Kraken C Chandler Stephenson (9) during the game between Seattle Kraken and Detroit Red Wings on January 12, 2025 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire)

For the third time in four seasons, the Kraken missed the playoffs in 2024-2025, finishing with 76 points (35-41-6). The Kraken earned that placement, ranking 25th in Corsi percentage (47.9) and 29th in expected goals percentage (46.2). Overcoming that possession deficit is asking a lot on the rest of the things that the team can control. Seattle’s power play ranked 27th with 5.56 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. It only got slightly better when the Kraken were shorthanded, as they ranked 23rd with 8.68 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. In goal, Joey Daccord had another strong season while Philipp Grubauer struggled yet again. When all of these components are added together, it wasn’t just one thing leading the Seattle’s struggles, but the combination of these things practically made it inevitable.

What’s Changed?

That disappointing finish resulted in the Kraken firing head coach Dan Bylsma, replacing him with Lane Lambert, who had been an associate coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs and has previous head coaching experience with the New York Islanders. The Kraken also moved Ron Francis from General Manager to President, with Jason Botterill taking over as GM. That means the team has new voices and decision makers, but they made some changes to the roster as well, trading for Dallas Stars winger Mason Marchment and Minnesota Wild checking forward Frederick Gaudreau. On defence, they signed Ryan Lindgren, who finished last season with the Colorado Avalanche after starting his career with the New York Rangers. The Kraken traded winger Andre Burakovsky to the Chicago Blackhawks and winger Michael Eyssimont signed with the Boston Bruins as a free agent.

What would success look like?

It would be great if the Kraken could get back to the playoffs, but that would likely require a 20-point improvement, so it’s probably not the most realistic outcome. The objective should at least be to close the gap, and that includes improving possession numbers at five-on-five, getting better on the power play and penalty kill, and finding a reliable No. 2 goaltender, whether it’s Grubauer or someone else. If all of those objectives are met and the Kraken still fall short of the playoffs, but are a competitive team pushing, say, 90 points, then that’s a relatively and achievably successful season.

What could go wrong?

Considering the Kraken’s track record, expectations have to be modest already, going into the 2025-2026 season, so if the team is truly bad and has a shot at winning the draft lottery, then it’s really not the worst long-term scenario. But, if the expectation is for the Kraken to be competitive, that can get undone if Daccord doesn’t bail them out with strong goaltending. If the Kraken do fall off the pace early, they have a handful of proven veterans who will be unrestricted free agents at season’s end, so they will likely become active sellers in the marketplace. In the short term, that could make the Kraken even worse, but it might be best for the franchise in the long run.

Top Breakout Candidate

Shane Wright scored 44 points (19 G, 25 A) in 79 games in his first full NHL season in 2024-2025 and did that while playing just over 14 minutes per game. Considering that the Kraken have Matty Beniers and Chandler Stephenson ahead of Wright on the depth chart at centre, there is a possibility that Wright could beat them out for a bigger offensive role and if he does that, his point total could jump quite a bit if, for example, he is suddenly playing an extra three minutes per game.

FORWARDS

Jared McCann

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	35	60	0.73

McCann is the Kraken’s lone star forward and last year was his lowest goal-scoring season with the team, mostly due his power play production declining. Still possessing a heavy wrist shot, defenders put more of a focus on shutting down McCann and he didn’t have much space to work with. He had the lowest Controlled Zone Entry percent of his Seattle career, so he had to rely on his linemates more to both enter the zone and play off him. McCann adjusted to this well by thriving in more of a playmaking role, helping rookie Shane Wright find the back of the net a few times. McCann’s shot is his calling card, but there’s also a lot of deception to his game, which he showed with his playmaking. He passed from areas that he usually shoots from, giving his linemates plenty of looks off one-timers and into open nets. He had to make do with the space he was given from the outside and he usually finishes at a higher rate than he did last season, whether this was an off year or a sign of things to come remains to be seen. His all-around game covered up some of his decline in scoring, as McCann is one of the only forwards the Kraken can rely on for providing instant offence along with great play driving.

Matty Beniers

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	33	58	0.71

The Kraken were quick to make Beniers as part of their core, signing him for seven years before the start of last season. Hoping his $7.14 million cap hit will be a bargain when he breaks out, the offence still hasn’t come out for the former Michigan star. He has a unique profile for a younger player, excelling at carrying the puck out of the defensive zone and acting as a third defenceman to help spring the breakout. There aren’t a lot of young forwards who play this way, but Beniers uses his long reach and frame well to protect the puck and get it out of harms way. It’s made him a reliable defensive forward at a young age. The offence is still a work in progress, as he is one of the least productive first line centers in the league right now. His goal scoring improved a little last season, the addition of Kaapo Kaako being the biggest help to that. Beniers is more dangerous when shooting off one-timers rather than trying to beat goaltenders on his own off the rush, so adding a playmaker to his line was a big help. There weren’t a lot of opportunities for one-timers in previous seasons with Beniers having to quarterback everything in the offensive zone. His overall offence, however, took a step back with his line only creating off the rush without much shot volume. Time will tell if this will ever come around or if Beniers just fills a niche as a defensive workhorse.

Chandler Stephenson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	14	36	50	0.63

Seattle is no stranger to going the free agent route to fill their needs and last summer’s addition of Chandler Stephenson was one of their riskier moves. The speedy center spent his best seasons on deep Vegas teams and Stephenson himself had an elite linemate in Mark Stone for most of his run there. Going from that to playing as the de facto top line center on a weaker Seattle team was asking a lot out of him. In some ways he performed to expectations, posting similar scoring numbers to his final year in Vegas with more of his assist production coming on the power play compared to even strength. Everything outside of that is where the major problems lie. Seattle was heavily outshot and outchanced with Stephenson on the ice. His best tool is his speed, and they couldn’t set him up to get rush chances like he did with Vegas. He’s also not the best traditional center in terms of knowing where to be on the ice. He is all over the place when defending in his own zone, sometimes cheating for a breakaway, chasing the puck instead of sticking to his assignment and not doing much to break the play up. Sometimes you have to accept the risks if you have a game-breaking player and while Stephenson’s straightaway speed fits the bill there, the Kraken haven’t figured out how to best utilize it at even strength. They played him as their top center, and it might be better for the team’s future if someone else assumes that role next season.

Kaapo Kakko

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	16	36	52	0.63

One of the Kraken’s highest scoring players on a point-per-game basis, Kakko found his niche as a playmaker in Seattle. His development with the Rangers was full of roadblocks, both by the coaching staff and his own play not being at the level of a top three pick. His linemates would change frequently, bouncing around from the top six to the fourth line and never establishing a role there. It changed with a mid-season trade to Seattle where the talented Finn decided to go all in on being a playmaker. He was first on the team in shot assists per 60 minutes and was only behind Jordan Ebelre in terms of setting up scoring chances, all while scoring 10 goals despite posting one of the lowest shot rates on the team. Kakko used his big body to position himself along the wall to create easy zone entries for Matty Beniers. This took a lot of pressure off Beniers to not play as a one-man show and become more of a shooting threat, as Kakko could protect the puck and draw defenders in from behind the goal line to create space. While he didn’t produce like a star and his defensive game is not quite there yet, this is the most high-level skill the former second overall pick has shown in the NHL thus far. Finding a niche is tough even for the most talented player and Kakko finally carved out a role for himself on a Kraken team desperate for elite talent.

Shane Wright

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	24	28	52	0.64

One of the centerpieces of Seattle’s core, Shane Wright showed enough to keep the team hopeful about his future but maybe not as the guy to build around. The encouraging thing from Wright’s rookie season is that he could score, shooting at over 20% and showing some high-level finishing off the rush. The downside is that he didn’t create a lot of chances and it’s tough for most players to sustain that kind of shooting percentage. Wright was somewhat protected with the Kraken deploying him mainly with sheltered third line minutes and power play time. They paired him with stronger puck-carries like Burakovsky and McCann so Wright could focus more on getting open playing away from the puck, not putting too much of a workload on the youngster early on. The results were a mixed bag. He showed a decent level of skill but didn’t show signs of being a potential game-breaker. Most of his goals came from reaping the benefits of his linemates or jumping on a loose puck. There’s a place for that, but the Kraken are hoping Wright can become their top center at some point. There were signs of him having more to offer, though. He likes to carry the puck and play off the rush, he just had a low number of zone entries per game, so he didn’t get to show this skill much. It’s not out of the ordinary for a player his age, but it’s something the Kraken will want to see more of as he ascends in the lineup.

Jordan Eberle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	16	27	43	0.56

One of the few forwards on the team who could produce scoring chances consistently, Eberle sustaining a pelvis injury that required surgery, was a major blow to the Kraken. He was the team’s hottest scorer out of the gate with six goals in the first month of the season and he struggled to regain his form after returning to the lineup in February, scoring only three goals the rest of the season. Depending on how he recovers in the off-season, Eberle is one of Seattle’s most valuable players. He knows the tools of the trade when it comes to creating offence and has always been great at weaving through defenders to get to the net. He doesn’t have the same speed he used to, but he makes up for it by always being in the right spot and reading off some of his quicker linemates like Beniers or Stephenson. His skillset is more complementary in nature now, but it’s also integral in helping unlock some of the more skilled players on the Kraken. His chemistry with Beniers and McCann being a great example. When Beniers has control of the puck on the cycle, Eberle always does a good job of slyly getting lost in coverage for a one-time opportunity. The roles can also be reversed because Eberle is terrific at making passes around the net and McCann’s shot is one of Seattle’s best offensive weapons. The same goes for Beniers’ one-timer, which is why his absence was felt throughout the lineup. Now 35 years old, it’s uncertain if Eberle will stay this effective after surgery, but he’s always been a versatile offensive player who can make his linemates lives easier.

Tye Kartye

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	9	9	18	0.26

Kartye made some waves when he was called up during the Kraken’s inaugural playoff run, showing some of his goal-scoring prowess that made him one of Coachella Valley’s top players. As a slower skater, the NHL was going to be an adjustment for him, and he showed enough in his rookie season with 11 goals in a bottom six role. Last season was more of a struggle, as Kartye didn’t do much to standout and saw his scoring chance rate plummet to below replacement level. Losing his regular linemates in Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev at the trade deadline made things tougher on him and he eventually found himself in the press box for a few games. The Kraken still chose to extend him with a raise, so he gets a chance at fresh start with a new coaching staff. The intriguing part of Kartye’s game are his hands and his shooting. He showed in his rookie season that he can be a consistent scoring chance generator; Seattle just has a plethora of players with one or two tools and not enough with a complete skillset.

Jaden Schwartz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	24	22	46	0.58

Schwartz is the definition of a jack-of-all-trades player, he can play all three forward positions on any line and adapt to whatever role he’s tasked with. The Kraken needed him to carry more of the offence last season, and he posted his highest goal total in 10 years. A great skater, Schwartz is very slick at getting away from coverage to extend shifts in the offensive zone. It was more of a weapon off the rush last season, where he scored a handful of goals off one-timers as the second or trailing forward into the zone. In addition to the goal scoring, Schwartz was also the Kraken’s best forward at leading zone exits, excelling at making long, breakout passes to kickstart the rush. This is also where his slick skating came into play, as he could dodge and dangle around forecheckers to both create passing lanes and allow the other forwards to fly the zone. He mastered the balance of contributing to the team’s transition game without needing to carry the puck in himself much, as that’s never been a major strength of his. Schwartz has been one of Seattle’s best players since their inception and while he is coming off an excellent season, it does raise some questions about the team’s ceiling if he is still one of their top forwards when they’re trying to make the playoffs.

Mason Marchment

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	21	26	47	0.63

Trying to bolster the middle of their roster, Marchment was acquired by Seattle early in the offseason for a couple of mid-round picks. He brings some elements the Kraken are lacking in the middle of their roster with his size, offensive upside and physical play. His propensity to take penalties and his sloppy play with the puck in the defensive zone are Marchment’s main drawbacks, but the positives outweigh the negatives if he scores like he did in Dallas the last couple of seasons. The Seattle middle-six has been somewhat of a mess in the last couple of seasons and Marchment brings a different look to the table than Burakovsky or even some of their better players like Schwartz. He plays like a torpedo on the forecheck, always looking to take the body and can create some high-quality chances out of nothing off loose pucks and scrambles. While Marchment raises the bar for Seattle, he isn’t going to have the same level of talent he had to work with in Dallas, so this will be a test of if he can drive the bus on his own. With how many of his chances came off one-timer and high-danger passes, Marchment might need some support to reach the offensive numbers he posted with the Stars, but the Kraken have some intriguing options to pair him with.

Eeli Tolvanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	17	40	0.50

One team’s waiver wire fodder is another team’s treasure, as Tolvanen has improved every year he’s been in Seattle. Not developing into the goal scorer Nashville hoped he would be, Tolvanen was claimed for free by the Kraken and has done nothing but set career highs, all while primarily asked to play a checking role. Last year his goal scoring talent finally started to show. He’s always had a great wrist shot but needs the time and space to get it off, and he had to make do with limited opportunities. Last year was a change of pace, with Tolvanen becoming more of a shooting threat alongside Shane Wright. He’s quicker with releasing the puck now, scoring most of his goals off one-timers from plays from behind the net, taking some chances by playing deeper in the offensive zone instead of always being the first forechecker or staying in a defensive posture. It didn’t come at the cost of his defensive play, as the Kraken didn’t give up much when he was on the ice. He’s proven himself to be a versatile player and will look to build on that as he enters unrestricted free agency after this upcoming season.

DEFENCE

Vince Dunn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	13	42	55	0.71

Dunn is one of the best-case scenarios letting a young defenceman play through his struggles when breaking into the top pair. They immediately used him in this role and while he had his initial struggles, Dunn blossomed into an undisputed number one defenceman the next season. His smooth passing and skating make him a key fixture in Seattle’s offence rather than a complementary piece, as he’s usually the one leading most of the entries and running the offence from up high. Dunn dominates the perimeter game by being patient with waiting for the defence to breakdown, deceptively looking off defenders and dissecting the coverage from up high. Also, he is very good at making the first forechecker miss to create chances closer to the net. Dunn is one of Seattle’s jenga pieces, with the defence usually falling apart when he’s not in the lineup. The transition game is where he’s most valuable, starting entries from both taking a beating to retrieve pucks and resetting the play in the neutral zone. The latter is where Dunn is the most impactful at starting the Kraken’s offence, picking off zone exits and turning them into quick-strike offence. This has made his injury concerns particularly devastating, missing most of the first half of last season with a mid-body injury and ending the previous season on injured reserve with a concussion. He is the catalyst for most of the Kraken’s offence and it exciting to think about what he could do with better forwards around him.

Brandon Montour

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	28	44	0.55

Montour has never been the easiest player to fit into your lineup as an attack-minded defenceman who needs to be insulated with great forward talent and a strong defence partner. He proved a lot of people wrong in Florida as a key part in back-to-back Cup wins while playing 24-25 minutes a night, but there was a lot that the Panthers did to protect him. Montour was never the first to go back to retrieve pucks, playing higher in the zone and letting his partner or the forwards do the work in the corners. This allowed him to get up in the play quicker, sprinting out of the zone and playing most of his shifts going north. With the Kraken, he had to do more of the grunt work in the defensive zone, and it didn’t keep him from playing his game. Montour set a career high in goals and was still the high-level offensive defenceman that he was in Florida. While a lot of defencemen like this have more complementary skillsets, Montour likes to be the center of the play. He takes a lot of shots, moves all around the offensive zone to look for one-timers and loves joining the rush. It’s why he’s a tough player to fit into your system, but with his defensive game improving, it was a little more seamless for the Kraken last year. They took a huge risk signing him to a high-dollar contract for seven years and so far, he’s been worth it.

Adam Larsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	6	19	25	0.31

One of the early breeds of the modern shutdown defenceman, Larsson has been a model of consistency for the Kraken. He was one of their first picks in the expansion draft and one of the first players they made part of their core, signing him to a four-year deal almost immediately after. He plays a key role as the more defensive presence next to Vince Dunn and anchoring their top penalty kill unit. Mostly out there to play safety valve, Larsson can still be active in the play, he’s a very fluid skater and likes to join the cycle when the opportunity is open. He is a sizable defenceman but defends more with his legs, having the mobility to keep up with top forwards and skating them into a corner to kill the play. This has made up for some of the decline in his rush defence the past few seasons. He’s not as efficient with killing plays using his stick as he used to and teams have started attacking his side of the ice instead of Dunn’s. His strong cycle defence makes up for this, as Larsson still does a good job disrupting plays after the puck is in the zone. In the first year of a four-year deal, Larsson’s provides a steadying presence on Seattle’s blue line. Not a game-breaker by any means, but someone who can hold the fort down in the top four and give you solid results.

GOAL

Joey Daccord

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	21	25	6	3	.905	2.82

Seattle keeps hoping that Philipp Grubauer, who emerged as a surprising starting goaltending darling with the Colorado Avalanche just prior to the team's expansion, will finally find his footing and help the team challenge for contention. But Grubauer is coming off of one of the worst seasons of not just his career but the entire league, and it's about time to consider that his contract - which won't be up until the end of not this season, but the next one - was a mistake. Now, Seattle is desperately trying to scrounge up a goaltending depth chart that they can cycle through for a full season without offloading Grubauer, which has left them with an equally expensive Joey Daccord, a bizarre reclamation project (fresh off of his second 'second chance' team in Toronto) in Matt Murray, and the Coachella Valley Firebirds' most promising prospect in Niklas Kokko.

Daccord is, statistically, Seattle's best goaltender at the moment. He returned at the start of the 2023-24 season looking like a new, crisper goaltender, and he carried that new technical precision into this past season. From a financial standpoint, though, the Kraken seem intent on at least giving Grubauer 1B backup appearances, which leaves Seattle in a position where they look like they won't be competing for at least another two years. Unless Grubauer mysteriously finds his form again, they'll need to make some tough choices if they want to take a step forward.

NHL: CULLEN- 20 FANTASY POINTS – Protas’ breakout season, injury to McDavid, Nichushkin emerging, Cozens thriving in Ottawa, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 21 Mar 2025 20:44:45 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Aliaksei Protas’ breakout season, an injury to Connor McDavid, Valeri Nichushkin emerging, Dylan Cozens thriving in Ottawa, and much more!

#1 Massive Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas has exploded offensively this season, going from 29 points in 2023-2024 to 62 points (29 G, 33 A) in 69 games this season. He has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in his past seven games and has recorded 57 of his 62 points at even strength. That ranks seventh in the entire league, putting him between sixth-place Nikita Kucherov and eighth-place Kyle Connor. Sidney Crosby ranks ninth. At even strength, Protas is skating on the top line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alex Ovechkin, and while regression may be due for a player scoring on 22.5 percent of his shots and whose team scores on 14.7 percent of its shots at five-on-five when he is on the ice, that good fortune has been working in Protas’ favor all season.

#2 The Edmonton Oilers will be treading carefully following a possible lower-body injury to Connor McDavid, suffered Thursday night against Winnipeg. McDavid’s absence would obviously be a big deal for the Oilers, but especially in the short term as Leon Draisaitl did not play Thursday and is considered day-to-day as well. The best case for the Oilers is that, in the event that McDavid needs to miss some time, Draisaitl will soon be ready to return to action. If not, then the Oilers will likely need to run Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique in their top two centre slots while their superstars are on the mend.

#3 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has had issues staying in the lineup, whether due to injury or suspension, in recent years, but he has also established that he can be a force to be reckoned with when he plays. In his past seven games, Nichushkin has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal. He is getting first unit power play time and skates alongside Brock Nelson and Jonathan Drouin at even strength.

#4 The past couple of seasons had been relatively difficult for Dylan Cozens, who had busted out with 68 points (31 G, 37 A) during the 2022-2023 season, but he dropped to 47 points (18 G, 29 A) in 68 games last season and had 31 points (11 G, 20 A) in 61 games with the Sabres this season before he was traded to the Ottawa Senators. Since joining the Sens, Cozens has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 20 shots on goal in seven games. His production is improving despite playing less – his ice time dropping from 17:13 to 15:23 per game – thanks in part to better percentages, scoring on 15.0 percent of his shots and 14.0 percent on-ice shooting percentage.

#5 Top scorers since the trade deadline among those players who changed teams: Brandon Saad (3 G, 3 A in 7 GP), Cody Glass (2 G, 3 A in 6 GP), Dylan Cozens (2 G, 3 A in 6 GP), Mark Jankowski (4 G, 0 A, in 5 GP), Mikael Granlund (3 G, 1 A in 6 GP), Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 2 A in 6 GP), Brock Nelson (2 G, 2 A in 7 GP), Martin Necas (2 G, 2 A in 7 GP), Connor Timmins (1 G, 3 A in 5 GP), Yanni Gourde (0 G, 4 A in 6 GP), Cody Ceci (0 G, 4 A in 6 GP), J.T. Miller (0 G, 4 A in 8 GP); Marcus Pettersson (0 G, 4 A in 8 GP).

#6 San Jose Sharks rookie Macklin Celebrini has enjoyed a fantastic first season, even if the Sharks’ season has still been a struggle. In his past 20 games, Celebrini has 18 points (8 G, 10 A) which is great, but it’s very encouraging that he has 76 shots on goal in that time. That shot rate practically ensures continued production. The only players averaging better than 3.80 shots on goal per game across the full season are David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brady Tkachuk. One other statistical edge for Celebrini: he has blocked 19 shots on those 20 games. There are only a handful of centres (Elias Pettersson, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Henrique, Auston Matthews, and Ryan Poehling) who have blocked a shot per game across the full season, so Celebrini offers rare contributions at both ends of the rink.

#7 It is likely too soon for a full-throated recommendation of Winnipeg Jets defenceman Dylan Samberg, because he doesn’t have a power play role, but he does have 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 46 blocked shots in his past 20 games while he is averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. For a Jets team that leads the league with a goal differential of +78, merely playing a significant role on the blueline can offer potential value, at least for managers in deeper fantasy leagues.

#8 St. Louis Blues veteran defenceman Justin Faulk has seen his offensive production tick up recently, recording seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games. Faulk is quarterbacking the Blues’ second power play unit and 12 of his 29 points this season have come via the man advantage. That is his most power play points in a season since 2017-2018 when he was playing for the Carolina Hurricanes.

#9 The third pick in the 2021 Draft, Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish has rounded into form in the second half of the season. He has put up 24 points (12 G, 12 A) in his past 23 games and is now skating between Trevor Zegras and Brett Leason. The Ducks have shuffled their lines over time, so this is a newer combination, but it has not mattered much to McTavish, as he has been in a scoring groove for a couple of months. Another promising development for the Ducks is that Leo Carlsson, the second pick in the 2023 Draft, has picked up his production, too. In 15 games since the 4 Nations Face Off, Carlsson has 14 points (7 G, 7 A). In addition to joining McTavish on the Ducks’ top power play, Carlsson is skating on a line at even strength with rookie Cutter Gauthier and veteran Alex Killorn.

#10 After all the hype around Mikko Rantanen’s arrival, and then departure, from Carolina, left winger Taylor Hall has been overshadowed, but he has started to find his footing. After a slow start when he joined the Hurricanes, Hall has started to rally, with six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past six games. He is getting a shot on the ‘Canes top power play unit but has just three power play points all season. Nevertheless, that is quality ice time and Hall is making the most of his time skating on a line with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Roslovic.

#11 There are three Vancouver Canucks with 20 or more goals this season: Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, and…Pius Suter. Suter, the Swiss centre, has tallied eight points (6 G, 2 A) in his past 11 games, vaulting him to a new career high with 20 goals and, with 34 points, he is two points off of his previous career high. He is centering the Canucks’ second line, between DeBrusk and Kiefer Sherwood. Staying in Vancouver, winger Nils Hoglander has climbed the depth chart to skate on Elias Petterson’s wing and Hoglander has delivered seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games.

#12 Some hidden value for fantasy managers can be found with defensive defencemen who add some offense, in addition to their other statistical contributions. Seattle Kraken blueliner Adam Larsson, for example, has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in his past 14 games and since Larsson also has consistently delivered hits (88) and blocked shots (126), he has value for fantasy managers.

#13 Utah Hockey Club netminder Karel Vejmelka has stepped up with his best season in his fourth NHL campaign. In his past 13 games, he has a record of 8-3-2 and has .909 save percentage. With Connor Ingram taking a leave from the team, the Utah Hockey Club’s push for the playoffs is going to depend heavily on Vejmelka.

#14 The Ottawa Senators have been the second highest scoring team in March, with 3.76 goals per 60 minutes (ranking only behind the Colorado Avalanche at 3.96 GF/60) and the Sens are now a rising tide that lifts all boats. While Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson are leading the way offensively, there are others who are more widely available. In his past 10 games, Michael Amadio has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 14 shots on goal and veteran winger David Perron has contributed six points (3 G, 3 A) with seven shots on goal in his past eight games. Neither one has a shot rate that suggests they can maintain this production, but it is worth keeping them on your fantasy radar.

#15 It has been a breakthrough season for Columbus Blue Jackets enforcer Mathieu Olivier, which earned him a contract extension. The 28-year-old winger has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 26 points (16 G, 10 A) for the season. With 120 penalty minutes and 258 hits, Olivier is a banger league star and he’s playing top nine minutes, which makes it more likely that he will remain productive enough to hold that value.

#16 As the Buffalo Sabres have shuffled their lines, centre Ryan McLeod has moved into the second line centre role and is thriving with more offensive responsibility. In his past 16 games, McLeod has put up 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal while playing nearly 19 minutes per game. He has Jordan Greenway and Jason Zucker on his wings and McLeod has career highs in goals (16) and points (38).

#17 With Jack Hughes out for the rest of the season, the New Jersey Devils were looking for help down the middle of the ice and picked up Cody Glass from the Pittsburgh Penguins. He has had an immediate impact for the Devils, scoring five points (2 G, 3 A) in six games, logging nearly 15 minutes per game. He is centering a line with Erik Haula and Daniel Sprong on his wings. It’s an interesting line, with three players who have sufficient skill to score, but who have also bounced around the league quite a bit, so it will be interesting to see if Glass can maintain this level of production.

#18 Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev continues to make his mark as a finisher. In his past six games, Dorofeyev has put up eight points (6 G, 2 A) with 21 shots on goal. That shot rate is very encouraging and Dorofeyev is getting first unit power play time in addition to skating on a line with veterans Brandon Saad and Tomas Hertl. Dorofeyev ranks 12th (minimum 500 minutes) with 9.77 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

#19 Colorado Avalanche winger Ross Colton had a 14-game scoring drought but has since snapped out of it in a big way, with 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past 11 games. That flurry of assists has weakened Colton’s Cy Young case, as he now has 15 goals and 12 assists for the season but has 13 goals and three assists before suddenly turning playmaker.

#20 The leaders in five-on-five expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 500 minutes): Zach Hyman (1.31), Auston Matthews (1.22), Barrett Hayton (1.17), Jeff Skinner (1.15), Brady Tkachuk (1.12), Anders Lee (1.11), Warren Foegele (1.06), Filip Chytil (1.05), Connor McMichael (1.05), Bryan Rust (1.05), and Sean Monahan (1.05). Some of these names are to be expected, because Matthews generates a lot of shots while Hyman, Tkachuk, and Lee tend to have a lot of in-close opportunities. It’s intriguing to see players like Hayton, Skinner, Foegele, and Chytil among the leaders because it does suggest that they could deliver more production at even strength. At the very least, maybe the Oilers could keep Skinner in the lineup to see if those scoring chances can eventually pay off.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – Team Preview

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:00:07 +0000

_{SEATTLE, WA - MARCH 28: Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers (10) looks on before a face-off during a NHL game between the Seattle Kraken and the Anaheim Ducks on March 28, 2024 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)}

After reaching the playoffs in their second season in 2022-2023, the Kraken came back to Earth in a big way last season, finishing with 81 points (34-35-13). The Kraken were a middling team at five-on-five, controlling 51.3% of shot attempts, which ranked 13th, and 50.7% of expected goals, which ranked 17th. That is not the mark of a surefire playoff team, but it’s also not the mark of an also-ran with no shot at the playoffs. The Kraken ranked 20th with 7.25 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, and 20th with 7.68 goals against per 60 minutes. Their goaltending gave them a .903 save percentage, which ranked ninth, so the problem really came down to Seattle’s inability to score. They scored on 9.1% of their shots, which ranked 29th and the only teams below them were Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Jose.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Dan Bylsma takes over behind the bench after Dave Hakstol was fired. Tomas Tatar returned to New Jersey as a free agent while the Kraken have moved on from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Justin Schultz. They also did not give a qualifying offer to winger Kailer Yamamoto. This helped set up two big free agent additions for the Kraken, as they signed defenceman Brandon Montour, fresh off a Stanley Cup win with Florida, and centre Chandler Stephenson, who had won the year before with Vegas. Can Montour and Stephenson add enough juice to this attack so that the Kraken have a fighting chance to get back to the postseason? Seattle had better hope so.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? For a team that has a lot of veteran players, the Kraken are not looking to keep rebuilding into perpetuity, so success looks like returning to the playoffs. If they could do some damage once they get there, even better. The most obvious player that needs to improve for the Kraken is centre Matty Beniers, who went from 57 points as a rookie to 37 points last season and that’s not nearly good enough, so one of the things that will look like success in Seattle is if, while improving their competitive play, they also get Beniers back on track to being a frontline player in the NHL.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? For a team going into its fourth season, it is hard to say that missing the playoffs would be a sign of going wrong, but with so many veteran players, the Kraken either need those veterans to produce to get them into the playoffs, or they have to figure out what comes next and if it means a player like Shane Wright gets buried on the fourth line while the veteran pros are just good enough to get the Kraken 80 points to miss the playoffs again, that would seem like things are going wrong.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: On a team with very few young players, oddly enough, a 20-year-old who is no longer Calder eligible is worthy of breakout status. Shane Wright surprisingly dropped to the fourth pick in the 2020 Draft, and has been on a rocky road since. Last season, he put up 47 points in 59 AHL games during the regular season before adding 13 points in 12 playoff games, impressive numbers for a 20-year-old first-year pro. Wright was excellent in eight games with the Kraken scoring four goals and adding an assist while driving play effectively. It would seem a waste to bury him on the fourth line, so if Wright gets into the top nine, he would have a chance provide decent production on a team that should be tripping over itself to add scoring to the lineup.

FORWARD

Matty Beniers

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	25	38	63	0.77

Matty Beniers isn’t the first player to fall victim to the sophomore slump, although it was disappointing for someone Seattle expected to be an undisputed No. 1 center. Most of his struggles were related to offence, as he played well beyond his years in other aspects of the game. He is heavily relied upon in the Kraken’s transition game, starting most of their exits and having most of their zone entries go through him. It wasn’t too different from his rookie season, but the difference was the Kraken weren’t creating any offence with him on the ice. He could still create off the rush, but he struggled to get anything to the net on the follow-up opportunities. His shot rate declined from his rookie season, not taking command of the offence or getting himself open for teammates. There is nothing wrong with being a pass-first player, but Beniers playmaking skills weren’t high enough to make up for the lack of offence in other areas. Seattle still fed him top minutes, mostly because he’s one of their more reliable players in the defensive zone even at his age and the threat to score off the rush was still there. Players who show the talent he did as a puck-carrier usually see the point production follow them as they get older, so brighter days are ahead for the former Michigan Wolverine. A return to 25 goals and 60 points is possible as a fixture on the top line and power play.

Jared McCann

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	35	63	0.78

Jared McCann has been the Kraken’s go-to guy for offence since the team’s inception, leading the team in goals in all three years. The fact that he still did it last year while scoring 11 fewer than he did in 2022-23 says more about how the team around him played than McCann himself having a bad year. He’s still one of the best finishers in the league and does a little of everything for Seattle including kill penalties. He has a heavy shot that is borderline automatic when he gets the time and space to pick a corner. He functions better as a goal-scorer who can strike from distance rather than crashing the net for his offence, the area between the faceoff circles being his sweet spot. Effective both off the rush and the forecheck, although he’s more effective as the guy trailing the play rather than the one leading it. McCann had wonderful chemistry with Matty Beniers for this reason, although they struggled to repeat the magic they created in 2022 last year. He is very good at creating his own time and space to get shots through and can navigate his way through traffic well. He is usually involved in helping keep the cycle going in the offensive zone instead of lurking in the weeds for an open shot. He’s “instant offence” personified and arguably the Kraken’s MVP. Expect 30 – 35 goals and 65 – 70 points as he and Beniers bounce back this season.

Jaden Schwartz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	14	20	34	0.52

Staying healthy is half the battle for Schwartz at this point in his career and last year was somewhat of a struggle, missing 20 games with an upper-body injury. He never got back to full speed upon returning to the lineup, scoring only five goals in his last 39 games and seeing his minutes cut from where they were last year. Schwartz is a good player even when he’s not getting on the scoresheet, but a lot of what makes him effective is his forechecking, always playing the body to jar pucks loose and being one of the few guys on Seattle who can get inside position in front of the net. Defensively he was dependable, but he couldn’t play with the same level of physicality in the offensive zone, and it made his game somewhat vanilla. His shot rate dipped from eight shots a game to only six per game and he was below average in most offensive categories relating to shot generation. Still a good passer and a smart player, Schwartz can be a solid player on any line in your middle-six, injuries are just forcing him into more of a tertiary role where his linemates have to carry more of the slack now. Health is just the biggest x-factor with him.

Andre Burakovsky

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
60	15	19	34	0.57

It’s been a tale of two completely different seasons for Burakovsky in Seattle although they’re both frustrating for similar reasons. He was only available for 49 games both years and while he produced at a decent clip in his first year, last season he didn’t score his second goal until the 29^th game of the season, which didn’t come until early March. Figured to be one of their top scorers when they signed him, the Kraken have gotten maybe 40% of what they expected out of the talented winger. He’s somewhat of a frustrating player in general because he’s a high-percentage shooter who doesn’t take a lot of shots, thus his career high in goals is only 22 and while great forward depth locked him out of the top six in Washington and Colorado, in Seattle he just hasn’t earned a spot consistently. In fairness, last season he was uncharacteristically snake-bit, shooting under 10% for the first time and he didn’t see much of a drop in his scoring chance or shot rate. His play-driving, however, was a bit of a mess, as Seattle gave up a lot when he was on the ice, and he couldn’t score to make up for it. Burakovsky is still a great player at creating quick-strike chances off the rush and setting guys up, so the potential for him to right the ship is there. He will likely get his chance to do so on a Kraken team that needs offence. The potential for 20 goals and 50 points is entirely possible at 29-years-old. He had scored at a pro-rated 65-point pace in the prior four seasons preceding last year’s dismal results.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	35	55	0.67

Known in Seattle as “The Maestro,” Bjorkstrand is the Kraken’s most reliable forward in terms of consistent impact. Even if he’s not on the scoresheet, he’s a positive in terms of play-driving and does a little of everything on the checking line with Yanni Gourde. Last year was his best season as a playmaker with his career best 39 assists. Those results were boosted from getting time on the top power play unit and doing an excellent job of helping set things up from the right wall. His play in the neutral and defensive zones are what gives him the most value, he’s an excellent puck-carrier and is very hard to check off the puck when he gets moving. He’s also a great support valve for the defence, once he gets the puck it’s usually going out of the zone and he’s very good at going the full length of the rink to either create offence or flip possession. Finishing is the one part of his game that hasn’t come around with the Kraken, despite hitting the 20-goal mark twice. He has the look and posture of a shooter, but acted as more of a playmaker last year, seeing his shots per game go down but still facilitating a lot of offence through entries and passing. He’s an ideal fit for the Kraken’s offensive zone game of always having player in motion with how good he is at cycling the puck below the goal line and he’s sneaky good at making the extra pass in front of the net to setup tap-in chances. Should remain one of the Kraken’s most trusted players even with the new coaching staff. He has had consistent results and should be able to repeat last year’s offensive numbers.

Yanni Gourde

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	12	24	36	0.48

Some years Gourde’s boxcar stats and high cap hit for a third line center is an afterthought when factoring in everything else he brings to the table. He’s an excellent forechecker and a tenacious player on the puck. He keeps possession in the offensive zone through physical play and through strong puck protection skills along the wall. He looks like the most skilled player on the team at times with how much he loves to skate with the puck and weave through checkers. He is the perfect guy to anchor a penalty kill unit and always a threat to score shorthanded. Negative parts of his game all relate to finishing, which has run hot-and-cold over his career with his most recent season being one of his worst in terms point production. Crashes the net well but doesn’t have the hands to capitalize on these chances, scoring most of his goals off deflections now. Still a good playmaker behind and around the net, partially due to his tenacity and ability to fight off checks to get the puck to the front. In the final year of his contract and in his mid-30’s now, it will be interesting to see how much his body holds up and if the Kraken depend on him for the same 17-18 minutes a game they usually do.

Jordan Eberle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	17	33	50	0.64

The elder stateman on the Kraken now, Eberle was one of the team’s best players at even strength last year. In some way not much has changed from when he first arrived on the Kraken, but he isn’t expected to carry the team’s offence like he once was, playing as the third wheel alongside McCann and Beniers for most of the season. He’s not getting the same number of puck touches he used to, but he did an excellent job of giving his linemates easy passes and creating space for them to get through the neutral zone. Thriving at the five-to-ten-foot pass game to start give-and-gos, Eberle’s adapted his game well over his career to stay in the top six despite whatever his scoring line is. He still skates well and can drive the net with great hands to finish plays off when he gets in alone. One of the few Kraken forwards whose offensive production wasn’t heavily skewed towards rush play, which made him a valuable piece on that top line. The power play was the only sore spot with him, only scoring six goals and 12 points with the man advantage, which makes his overall statline misleading because he was one of their top scorers at even strength. Now 34, it’s just a matter of whether he can sustain this level of play over the next two years where he’s under contract.

Eeli Tolvanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	17	25	42	0.51

Drafted as a goal-scorer and molded into a checking forward by the Kraken, Tolvanen is a case of finding your lane to stay in the league. Seattle made it clear what their expectations were of him when they claimed him off waivers from Nashville and he’s rewarded them with back-to-back solid seasons. Last year being his first full year in the league with a defined role on the Yanni Gourde line. Tolvanen’s simplified his game to be an effective forechecker, taking the role as the first forward into the zone to retrieve pucks and disrupt exits. The first-round skill is still there even if he doesn’t get as many opportunities to show it. He gets open enough to be dangerous on that third line and finishes at a decent clip. Combine that with his solid defensive play and Tolvanen has carved a nice path for himself to stay in the NHL for a while. The question with a player like him is what happens if or when you try him higher in the lineup. Is there more skill there or what he is doing now the best you’ll see? Seattle has some time to find this out, as they opted to bridge him for two years at $3.475 million AAV rather than making him a long-term piece of the puzzle. There is upside and a potential break out, but draft for similar results.

Chandler Stephenson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	37	52	0.63

Seattle wanted more offence, and they spent a lot of long-term money to get it by signing Chandler Stephenson. It was a shocking contract for a player who has only hit the 20-goal mark once in his career and known mostly as Mark Stone’s sidekick in Vegas. He isn’t the first guy in a thin free agent poll to get a big payday, but the fit in Seattle is a little suspect. Stephenson is one of the fastest players in the NHL, but functions as the secondary piece on his line rather than someone who stirs the drink. He excels in the give-and-go game, shooting only when he has a lot of time and space open to pick a corner. It’s questionable if the Kraken have the pieces to set him up for success because they’re a team with a lot of similar secondary pieces and few players who can drive results. Stylistically he fits because of his speed and love of creating cycles high in the zone, which the Kraken love to do. It’s just a matter of whether or not he will have the same impact he did in Vegas when he doesn’t have the same level of talent around him. His success could depend on how Matt Beniers performs in the first line center hole in front of him. Be cautious in drafting and do not expect him to produce more than last year with better talent. 15 goals and twice as many assists might be a realistic result.

DEFENCE

Vince Dunn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	13	47	60	0.77

The Kraken received the closest thing they’ll get to a franchise defenceman when they took Vince Dunn in the expansion draft. He drives a lot of what makes the team go, both through his vision, passing and controlling the play at the blue line. Seattle loves to create off the rush when they can slow the play down in the neutral zone and Dunn is excellent at making those frozen rope passes off regroups. He’s also their best defender at giving them a dynamic element on the blue line, always looking to pinch and contribute to the cycle instead of immediately looking for the big point shot. He also does this while playing 23-24 minutes a night on a Seattle top pair that gets some of the toughest matchups in the league. It’s not a coincidence that the Kraken’s season fell apart when a high hit against Calgary took him out of the lineup for the final 20 games. Seattle won only seven of the games he missed. It took Dunn a couple of years to get used to life as a top pair defenceman and Seattle didn’t have anyone who could slide into that role without a significant drop-off. Sometimes you never know if a player is going to sink or swim when they have to play higher in the lineup and Dunn is a case of patience paying off. He has two years of excellent results under his belt now. Expect more of the same.

Brandon Montour

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	38	50	0.61

Set to make bank after rediscovering his game as a pure offensive defenceman in Florida, the Kraken decided to be the team to pay the bill for it. His skillset is needed there, as the Kraken like to involve their defence and didn’t have a lot of attack-minded players on their blue line to make it effective. Montour was the most boom-or-bust player they could have added to fill this void. He fits the riverboat gambler moniker better than most because retrieving pucks and making stretch passes out of his own zone isn’t his strength, but rather someone who can fly the zone when a lane is open and act as an extra forward on the attack. Expectations for him are a little tough because he has one monster 73-point season heavily influenced by power play production sandwiched in between two decently productive seasons that would put him in the middle of the pack for most defencemen. Montour needs a sturdy partner who can retrieve pucks and matched up behind a scoring line to get the most out of his offensive skillset. He can move and has fantastic scoring instincts for a defenceman, keeping the puck in the offensive zone as much as possible is the key to unlocking what Florida got out of him. It’s uncertain if the Kraken have the same setup. Do not overpay as he is 30 years old and profiles more at the 40-point level than 60 over his recent career.

Adam Larsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	4	16	20	0.25

Affectionally known as “The Big Cat,” Larsson’s been a fixture in the Kraken lineup for awhile now, stapled next to Vince Dunn on their top pair. He is the less dangerous of the two offensively, as he will usually stay back while Dunn roams to be the safety valve. Larsson isn’t without skill, though. He skates well for a big man and will look to push the pace if given the opportunity. He activates from the blue line to create offence from closer range rather than go for the big slapshot form distance. His defensive play was more spotty than usual last year, as the Kraken gave up more chances with him on the ice. His own game was also a little more conservative than usual, focused mainly on avoiding turnovers and not making mistakes while deferring to Dunn for most of the exits and puck play. Was hurt the most by Dunn’s absence as some of his flaws were exposed without a puck-mover alongside him, especially with defending entries. This is normally one of Larsson’s stronger skills, but he struggled here. Opposing teams could attack his side more and the workload was overwhelming. When the two are healthy, they’re an underrated top pair with Larsson pitching in offensively a little more than he did last year.

Jamie Oleksiak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	3	17	20	0.24

The towering defenceman might have had one of his worst seasons offensively, but he performed well in just about every other aspect of the game. His own offensive contributions also weren’t bad, they just didn’t result in points. He brings an unmatched combination of size and mobility, as most defencemen built like him aren’t nearly as good with the puck or can skate their way out of danger like he can. He held the fort down well on that second pair and made life easier for Will Borgen to transition into a top four role. Still not the best breakout passer, Oleksiak makes up for it with his skating and penchant for making the simple plays to help his teammates kickstart the breakout. His own story is a great case of patience with player development, stuck in a third pair role for most of his career and dominating those minutes until the Stars were ready to promote him into the top four. This was around the time the Kraken claimed him in the expansion draft and he’s been a regular part of their defence corps and penalty kill since then.

GOAL

Philipp Grubauer

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
34	15	15	4	1	0.902	3.02

Joey Daccord

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
48	20	22	6	3	0.911	2.54

Perhaps the brightest surprise to pop up in net last season was Seattle Kraken backup Joey Daccord's rise to prominence. After former Colorado star Philipp Grubauer made the shocking move to ink with Seattle (only to see his numbers take a nosedive), it seemed like the Kraken became collectors of goaltenders without a ton of high upside to their games. Daccord was no exception, putting up stellar numbers in college for Arizona State but boasting a playing style that looked unlikely to translate well to the NHL. Whatever work he put into his development post-grad, though, seems to have paid off in spades. The version of Joey Daccord Seattle iced last season looked like a whole new goaltender, boasting elevated instincts and faster, crisper movements within the blue paint.

Now, he'll get a chance to prove last season wasn't just an adrenaline-fueled fluke. The Kraken will return this season with both Grubauer and Daccord, but it's likely Daccord will kick off the season as the presumed number one. Barring a surprising coaching decision in the Pacific Northwest, it appears as if the starting gig is Daccord's to lose. The biggest test will be to prove just how much of his instinctual improvements can stick around over the long, grueling seasons; he's made it clear that he's willing to put in the work, but Seattle will need him to prove he's got staying power as well if they hope to push back into playoff contention.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:12:21 +0000

REVIEW: Unlike Vegas’ amazing run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season, Seattle had a miserable first NHL campaign, but any Kraken fans who were prepared for a long, painful road to competitiveness were pleasantly surprised when Seattle posted a 46-28-8 record in 2022-23. Seattle turnaround was fueled by the squad scoring 73 additional goals compared to the prior year, flipping them from being among the worst teams offensively to one of the best. Rather than be led by some new acquisition, their scoring renaissance was fueled by returning Kraken players Jared McCann, Matthew Beniers and Jaden Schwartz combining to score an extra 47 goals more than the trio mustered in 2021-22. At the same time, defenseman Vince Dunn shattered his previous career-high of 35 points by contributing 14 goals and 50 assists. Seattle’s goaltenders were still a problem, as evidenced by their combined .890 save percentage, but the Kraken ranked seventh in 5-on-5 expected goals against (163.59), which kept the team defensively above water despite that poor netminding. Not satisfied with merely making the playoffs, Seattle managed to earn its first playoff series win by besting Colorado in seven games before falling to Dallas in the second round.

What’s Changed? Forward Daniel Sprong, who had 21 goals last season, and goaltender Martin Jones left as free agents. Jones’ departure opens the door for Joey Daccord to compete with Philipp Grubauer for starts. Other than that, the team figures to be largely the same.

What would success look like? With the Kraken’s existing forward core, they should challenge for a playoff spot again, but what would take this team to the next level would be a resurgence from Grubauer. Although the goaltender has struggled over his first two campaigns with Seattle, he was once an amazing netminder, posting a .920 save percentage over his first 214 career NHL contests. He briefly regained his form when facing his former team, the Avalanche, in the first round and was a huge part of that series victory. Grubauer didn’t look as impressive against Dallas, but maybe there’s still hope for the 31-year-old.

What could go wrong? McCann is in danger of regressing after scoring a career high with 40 goals in 79 contests last season, particularly because his 19.0 shooting percentage was well above his 12.1% career average. It’s also possible that Seattle’s offensive prowess last year was something of a perfect storm, given that its top five scorers and six of its top seven were able to play at least 79 games. Sprong being limited to 66 contests was the only significant setback the Kraken suffered on the injury front last year. They might not be as fortunate two seasons in a row.

Top Breakout Candidate: Beniers, Seattle’s first ever pick and the second overall selection in the 2021 draft, broke out with 57 points last season. Will Shane Wright, taken fourth overall in 2022, follow in his footsteps this year? Wright could develop into a superb two-way forward in the vein of the now retired Patrice Bergeron. Although Wright was unable to stick with Seattle last year, he got some more seasoning in the OHL and AHL and seems poised to make a serious run at a middle-six spot during training camp.

Forwards

Matthew Beniers

Matty Beniers was drafted second overall in 2021 and was the first ever draft pick of the Seattle Kraken. After finishing up his 2021-22 season at the University of Michigan, Beniers would play 10 games with the Kraken where he scored three goals and six assists. That rolled into his rookie season in 2022-23 where he scored 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games, winning the Calder Trophy as the rookie of the year by a healthy margin. He has an excellent shot, finishing at a rate of 16.3% so far in his career. Plus, he can use both his big frame and stick skills to excel in tight spaces. Additionally, he is an exceptionally disciplined player, only taking one minor penalty last season, helping him finish fourth in the league in penalty differential. Heading into his sophomore season, Beniers will want to be the one to help the Kraken crack their powerplay woes and he’d love to improve at faceoffs. His 42.2% faceoff win percentage so far in his career is abysmal. If he can keep growing, the 20-year-old who already has a well-crafted game, could become one of the best two-way centers in the NHL.

Jared McCann

The days of Jared McCann being a castaway are over. After being tossed around from Vancouver to Florida to Pittsburgh, McCann was used as a pawn to protect Toronto’s roster in the NHL Expansion Draft. In his first season in Seattle, McCann recorded a career-high 50 points with 27 goals and 23 assists. He went ahead and followed that up with 40 goals and 30 assists last season, both career-highs again. At 27 years old, McCann has found his spot as a first line scoring winger with an up-and-coming Kraken team. He finished fourth behind Pastrnak, McDavid, and Rantanen in even strength goals with 30. McCann was also one of the only bright spots on the Kraken powerplay, leading them with seven goals and 16 points in just over 200 minutes. While there are doubts that he can finish at such a high rate again, ending last season with a 19% shooting percentage, he has shown throughout his career that he can also help his teammates finish well too. Plus, if the Kraken ever figure out their powerplay woes, he will be the one to receive the greatest benefit as the Kraken’s go-to shooter on the man advantage.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

After a career-high 57 points in 80 games in 2021-22, the Columbus Blue Jackets decided that Oliver Bjorkstrand was a luxury that they could no longer afford due to cap constraints and sent him to Seattle. Bjorkstrand finished his first season with the Kraken with his fourth 20-goal season. The six-foot right-handed winger is an excellent forechecker, wreaking havoc on opponents trying to make their way up the ice. On a deeper Kraken team, he is able to dial in to his specific skill set. Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff placed him largely alongside Yanni Gourde and waiver-wire pick-up Eeli Tolvanen. The trio of more tactical forwards are tasked with keeping the ice tilting in the Kraken’s favor. In their time together, the line had a 56% share of shot attempts and outscored opponents 24 to 16. Bjorkstrand also saw 189 minutes on the powerplay last season, splitting time between units. The Kraken powerplay has struggled in its two years of existence, and Bjorkstrand was a part of that last season. If Bjorkstrand wants a shot at another career year this season, he will need to be a part of a growth in the Kraken powerplay in 2023-24.

Jordan Eberle

The 33-year-old winger played his part in a phenomenal offensive year for the Seattle Kraken, scoring 20 goals and adding 43 assists. Eberle offers a veteran presence alongside Matty Beniers and Jared McCann, in which the former won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, while the latter scored 40 goals for the first time in his career. Eberle has been given offensive deployment most of his career, and Dave Hakstol and the Seattle Kraken coaching staff has amplified that since arriving on the scene in the fall of 2021. He has seen 15% of his 5-on-5 shifts start in the offensive zone with the Kraken, which is 2% higher than his career average. He has also continued to see high usage on the powerplay as he continues to get more than two minutes of powerplay time per game. The only time he has fallen short of that number was in the 2017-18 season with the New York Islanders when he was only on the ice for 1.93 powerplay minutes per game that season. As long as Eberle continues to see the offensive usage he does now, he should continue to age with reasonable production.

Yanni Gourde

As the Kraken’s pick in the NHL Expansion Draft, Yanni Gourde brought a sense of personality and culture to the Kraken locker room. Although he stands at just 5’ 9”, the Quebec-native made his way into the NHL as a scrappy forward. It was the way he made his way into a deep Tampa Bay Lightning lineup at 25 years old, and it’s the way he is continuing to be useful at 31 years old. Gourde battles hard in all three zones, especially on opponents trying to exit their zone. His level of detail is why he can take on tough matchups and tilt the ice in his team’s favor. The only Kraken forwards who started a lower percentage of their shifts at 5-on-5 in the offensive zone were Andre Burakovsky and Ryan Donato. Going along with his defensive usage, Gourde was also on the ice for 164 shorthanded minutes last season, behind only Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev. That was the most time that Gourde had spent penalty killing in a season in his career, as the Kraken substituted his powerplay time for penalty killing time. One should expect more of the same of that usage this season but watch out for a bounce-back in his goal scoring with his shooting percentage regressing (9.93% last season vs career 14.5%).

Andre Burakovsky

After a revival of his career in Colorado, notching 61 goals and 89 assists in 191 games, Burakovskly tested unrestricted free agency where he elected to sign with the Seattle Kraken. The Colorado Avalanche had their eye on Burakovsky for his transition skills and shot. After a pair of disappointing 25-point seasons with the Capitals, that may have been hard to spot at the time. With the Kraken, Burakovsky continued to build on the offensive success he was having in Colorado, scoring 39 points in 49 games. However, a lower body injury in February would cause him to miss the rest of the season. Burakovsky found his home alongside Alex Wennberg, a forward who is responsible defensively and can help with the starting phases of breakouts deep in the zone. When he was in the lineup, he also saw time on the top unit. While he can make poor decisions at times, his offensive versatility makes him a valuable asset. The Kraken are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he is one of the more skilled forwards on their roster. Given their counterattacking style, they could use his ability to create offense off of the rush.

Alex Wennberg

After a promising start to his career, scoring 59 points in 80 games in 2016-17, Wennberg’s offense would fizzle out in the remainder of his time in Columbus and Florida. The 6’ 2” Swede has great size and playmaking abilities, but his lack of physicality and mentality to shoot the puck left prior coaches wanting more. Of the 371 forwards who played 500 or more minutes at 5-on-5 last season, only two forwards had a lower rate of individual shot attempts. Of course, that leads to a low rate of goal scoring and point production. He has scored 24 goals in his first 162 games with the Kraken, but there is always the risk something like 2018-19 happens again where he finishes with two goals in 75 games, shooting 3.1%. However, it’s clear that Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff love Wennberg. He was the top penalty killing option for them along with 186 minutes of powerplay time. Ultimately, the Kraken’s use of him as a dependable, defensively responsible forward will hurt his box score stats, but that is also important for helping other players on the team blossom.

Eeli Tolvanen

A first round pick in 2017, the 5’ 10” Finnish forward struggled to make a mark with the Nashville Predators. In 135 games between the 2017-18 season and last season, Tolvanen accumulated only 25 goals and 26 points with the Predators. On December 11th, 2022, Nashville placed Tolvanen on waivers where he was picked up by the Kraken. Over the remainder of the season with the Kraken, Tolvanen would score 16 goals and 11 assists. Some credit must be given to the Seattle Kraken organization who were committed to his success. He would spend 87.5% of his 5-on-5 time with Yanni Gourde, and 70.0% with Oliver Bjorkstrand. Having the opportunity to play with talented players who are experienced alleviated some of the pressure that was resting on his shoulders. His linemates also opened up space for him that he was able to take full advantage of. For a 24-year-old winger, Tolvanen already has a well-rounded defensive game to go along with his above-average shot. But he wasn’t exactly the play-driver that he would’ve needed to be in Nashville in order to succeed there. Alongside play-drivers who need some help finishing, Tolvanen is the perfect complementary piece that we saw in the latter two-thirds of the 2022-23 season.

Jaden Schwartz

After missing most of the Seattle Kraken’s inaugural season, Jaden Schwartz returned with a much healthier year, getting on the ice for 71 games in 2022-23. Any worries that his hand injury that he suffered in January of 2022 would hold him back seem to be alleviated as Schwartz scored 21 goals on 167 shots on goal, a finishing rate of 12.6%. Furthermore, he’s never been much of a shoot-first forward. He only ranked 161^st among regular forwards in the rate he attempted to shoot the puck at 5-on-5 last season, a large chunk of which were blocked. He’s known mostly for being dependable at most things, but not elite at any one thing. This can be reflected both in his lack of consistent linemates, as the coaching staff feels comfortable playing him with many different forwards, but also his quality of competition. Schwartz faced the third-hardest competition at 5-on-5 among Kraken forwards last season in terms of weighted-average time-on-ice of opponents. At 31 years old, it’s clear that Schwartz won’t blow you out of the water with his box score stats. He has only cleared 60 points once in his career. Despite playing on the number one 5-on-5 offense in the league last season and getting a hefty dose of powerplay time, he was not on track to add another 60-point season. He has instead reverted to being a dependable piece for the coaching staff in the middle six.

Defense

Vince Dunn

Vince Dunn had a breakout 2022-23 campaign scoring 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games for the Kraken. His 64-point total, which ranked tenth among defensemen last season, close to doubled his previous career-high of 35 which he set in 2018-19 and 2021-22. While he did play most of his 5-on-5 minutes alongside Adam Larsson in the inaugural season for the Kraken, he was close to glued to his hip last season, spending 88.3% of those minutes with Larsson. Dunn, a player who is excellent at breaking out of the zone and has a well-developed offensive toolset, has the habit of making big mistakes from time to time. A steady defensive partner like Larsson helps bring the most out of Dunn. It also helped that he had a slightly more skilled forward core to support last season as well. And with Mark Giordano out of the picture, the first powerplay unit was his all year, and no one is set to take that role away from him. He may seem some regression this coming season after shooting 9.3%, but his elevated production should be the new normal for him.

Adam Larsson

Perhaps best known for being the player the Edmonton Oilers exchanged Taylor Hall for, Adam Larsson is a 6’ 3” staple on the back end. Last season, playing with Vince Dunn and a deep forward core that helped push the Kraken’s even strength offense to the best in the league, Larsson was able to achieve a new career-high 33 points in 82 games. The Swede won’t win you over for his offensive play, but rather his dependability. He is talented defensively, allowing his teammates to take risks at times knowing that he will clean it up. He also hasn’t missed a game since November of 2019. Larsson led the Kraken in shorthanded time on ice last season at 227 minutes, or 59.2% of the Kraken’s time shorthanded. His usage and unwavering commitment to defense also helped propel him to ninth in blocked shots last season, and fourth over the last three seasons. Adam Larsson is the guy that does the dirty jobs that no one else wants to do, and he does it well. He will likely find his way into the top 100 in points among defensemen just by his usage and will log a substantial amount of shorthanded time while blocking shots.

Jamie Oleksiak

The 6’ 7” defenseman requires special permission from the league for the length of his stick. Not only is that stick extraordinarily long, but it is also 120 flex. Whatever works for the 2011 first round pick as he scored nine goals on 76 shots on goal last season. The shooting percentage of 11.8% will be impossible for him to reproduce, but it speaks to the utter strangeness in his game. Oleksiak had also gotten hot before, scoring five goals on 33 shots in the 2016-17 season. But at times, Oleksiak gets cold, like his first season in Seattle where he only managed a single goal on 95 shots. His unpredictability is what makes him a fun player to follow. Last season, for the first time in his 11-season career, Oleksiak was a staple to the penalty kill. He was the left-handed defenseman that was deployed alongside Adam Larsson, a role that was previously unfilled. You may have assumed that a defenseman of his size would have played a major role on penalty kills before, but Oleksiak’s preferred play style is as unique as his numbers. He loves to jump up into plays, helping transition the puck like a forward, as opposed to sticking back and being sturdy. Perhaps that’s why he led the Kraken in defensive zone starts last season.

Justin Schultz

After a disappointing 2021-22 season where the Washington Capitals reduced his ice time from 19 minutes per game to 17 minutes per game, Justin Schultz made his way to the west coast where he played just a bit more time with the Seattle Kraken. The two-time Stanley Cup champion has aged out of his days of being a stud offensive defenseman to complement Kris Letang’s work. His 34 points with the Kraken last season was the highest point production he recorded in a season since scoring 51 points in the 2016-17 season with Pittsburgh. Not good enough to be a top-pairing offensive defenseman for most teams, Schultz finds himself in a bit of an odd spot, as most general managers would prefer to fill the bottom four spots with penalty killers or younger offensive defensemen. The Seattle Kraken were one of the few teams that had the perfect slot for him, and he found his way to a bounce back season alongside Jamie Oleksiak. While Vince Dunn is undoubtedly the top choice for the first powerplay unit, Schultz fills in nicely on the second unit. Luckily for Schultz, there isn’t much contention for that spot either. You can expect more of the same from Schultz in the final year of his contract.

Goaltending

Philipp Grubauer

The Seattle Kraken had one job for Philipp Grubauer last season – do better than the year before, and don’t crumble in the postseason. And while he didn’t make the kind of massive bounce-back that the team undoubtedly hoped for, he did complete his assignment; he dragged his save percentage up from the mid-.880’s to just shy of the .900 threshold, doubling his quality start percentage from the year before and creeping closer to the league average in goals saved above expected. He remained an underperformer from a pure monetary standpoint, especially given just how much money they’d handed him in free agency, but he climbed out of the basement enough to bring the rest of the team up with him.

Grubauer’s biggest problem now wasn’t that he looked like he was playing catch-up all year; unlike in his first season with the expansion franchise, he managed to hit crisper angles and corral more shots before allowing sloppy rebounds. While he really elevated his game in his good performances, though, Grubauer’s biggest issue became his consistency; he had a lot of elite games, he had an above-average number of absolute stinkers, and he put up almost zero games that fell in the in-between. There was no such thing for the German-born goaltender as a league-average performance; he gave games his everything or he nearly got chased from the net, and he continued to waffle between the two performances all the way to the last week of the regular season. That, in itself, is a reason for concern for Seattle; he proved he still has excellent games in the tank, but he didn’t prove he could deliver those with enough reliability to tab him as the number one and breathe a sigh of relief. He’ll need to take that final step forward this year if he wants to prove his contract was worth it for the Pacific Northwest club.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. SEATTLE KRAKEN – Surprising sophomores face uphill battle against vulnerable Avalanche

Scott Cullen — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 20:10:02 +0000

SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 21: Colorado Avalanche center Evan Rodrigues (9) and Seattle Kraken center Alex Wennberg (21) race to the puck during an NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the Seattle Kraken on January 21, 2023 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

After winning the Stanley Cup last season, the Colorado Avalanche looked like they were poised to begin a dynasty. They still won the Central Division in 2022-2023, but a season marred by injuries leaves them more vulnerable than might have been expected.

On the other hand, the Seattle Kraken turned around a disappointing first season to record 100 points in the second year of the franchise. Can the Kraken take advantage of a weakened Avalanche squad and pull off the upset?

Forwards

Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are two of the premier forwards in the league, so that is a strong foundation for the Avs. MacKinnon scored a career-high 42 goals and 111 points in 71 games while Rantanen delivered a career-high 55 goals and 105 points while skating in all 82 games. How far the Avs can go will likely depend on what other forwards can contribute. Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen are exceptional forecheckers, making them strong fits in complementary roles. J.T. Compher has been excellent in a two-way role as the second line center, contributing 52 points along with superb defensive play. Can the Avs count on production from the likes of Evan Rodrigues, Alex Newhook, Logan O’Connor, and Denis Malgin? Someone from that depth group likely needs to step up, particularly after news that Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog, who missed the entire regular season, will not return for the playoffs.

While the Kraken improved their offense dramatically, it was more about a balanced attack. Jared McCann led the team with 40 goals and 70 points, but Seattle had 10 forwards with at least 35 points and that does not include Eeli Tolvanen, who scored 16 goals in 48 games after getting claimed on waivers and Ryan Donato, who added 14 goals in fourth-line minutes. In addition to McCann, the Kraken had five more forwards hit the 20-goal mark, including Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers, Daniel Sprong, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Jaden Schwartz. That scoring balance does make it difficult for the Kraken to get shut down completely, but they don’t yet have a marquee scorer to lean on in tough times, either. Seattle led the league with 3.13 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play, so the balanced attack worked for them. Given Colorado’s star power, this could be a real test of whether being able to spread the offense around is better than having a couple of go-to guys to carry the attack.

Defense

When healthy, Colorado’s defense is an outstanding group of difference makers who provide the engine for a championship team. The challenge has been keeping them healthy. Cale Makar is probably the best defenseman in the league but was limited to 60 games by various injuries. He still produced 66 points, including 37 points in 28 games after the Christmas break. A healthy Makar goes a long way towards making the Avs Cup contenders, but his last regular season appearance was April 1, so his health is not assured.

Devon Toews is a steady partner for Makar and steps into an even bigger role when Makar is out. Bowen Byram and Samuel Girard are strong puck moving options to keep the Avalanche on the attack, but the blueline depth reveals some potential concerns. Josh Manson has not played since March 1, leaving Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson, and Kurtis MacDermid to round out the defense and all three have been liabilities this season. The key for Colorado’s playoff hopes would be for Makar and Manson to be healthy, limiting the potential impact of those further down the depth chart. It appears that this will be the case, but Colorado’s lineup has been fragile at the best of times this season.

Vince Dunn emerged as a bona fide star in his second season with the Kraken, producing 64 points with strong defensive impacts while logging nearly 24 minutes of ice time per game. Adam Larsson was the only other Seattle defenseman to play more than 20 minutes per game and he chipped in a career-high 33 points along with his standard strong defensive play. Larsson is one of three defensemen in the playoffs that had at least 170 hits and 170 blocked shots during the regular season. Brayden McNabb of the Vegas Golden Knights and Jacob Trouba of the New York Rangers are the others. Jamie Oleksiak has matured into a steady two-way blueliner as well, but Seattle’s defense is an area of vulnerability. William Borgen, Carson Soucy, and Justin Schultz are fine, but not likely to make a major impact.

To their credit, the Kraken ranked second in all-situations shots and expected goals against per 60 minutes, giving them an edge over the Avs, who ranked 14^th in all-situations shots against and ninth in expected goals allowed.

Goaltending

Colorado’s goaltending is potentially a massive advantage in this series. Alexandar Georgiev emerged from Igor Shesterkin’s shadow in New York to become a high-end starting goaltender in Colorado. After putting up a .918 save percentage in 62 regular-season games, it is now time to find out if Georgiev can get it done in the playoffs.

Seattle’s goaltending is much more precarious. Martin Jones had a .886 save percentage in 48 games and Philipp Grubauer added a .895 save percentage in 39 games. Neither is remotely trustworthy, but Jones faded badly down the stretch, delivering a miserable .853 save percentage in 13 games after the All-Star break, so Grubauer should get first crack against his former team.

Special Teams

Colorado’s skill shows up on the power play, where they ranked seventh with 8.25 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. Rantanen led the way with 13 power play goals, followed by MacKinnon, who had 12. Seattle, on the other hand, ranked 22^nd with 6.45 goals per 60 and McCann was tops with seven power play goals, followed by Sprong and Schwartz with six.

Both teams were below average on the penalty kill, however. Colorado ranked 18^th and Seattle ranked 20^th in goals against during four-on-five play. Facing Colorado’s power play, this ought to be an area of concern for Seattle.

Conclusion

A fully healthy Avalanche team could be a powerhouse, but we have not seen a fully healthy Avalanche team this season. They are probably still good enough to handle the Kraken, but an injury or two – which could almost be expected for Colorado this season – would quickly put this series into question. Avalanche in 6.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Stars Returning from Injury

Scott Cullen — Fri, 06 Jan 2023 20:43:29 +0000

RALEIGH, NC - JANUARY 05: Carolina Hurricanes Left Wing Max Pacioretty (67) warms up prior to the game between the Nashville Predators and the Carolina Hurricanes on January 5, 2023 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a new year brings several star players returning from injuries. That includes Max Pacioretty, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nicklas Backstrom and more, plus defensive defensemen and gritty forwards that are scoring enough to generate fantasy appeal.

#1 Acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer, left winger Max Pacioretty suffered a torn Achilles that kept him sidelined until Friday’s game. A six-time 30-goal scorer, Pacioretty is skating with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Derek Stepan to start, but he is obviously too prolific a scorer to remain there. In his last three seasons with Vegas, Pacioretty put up 154 points (75 G, 79 A) in 158 games.

#2 The Detroit Red Wings welcomed Robby Fabbri back from his most recent torn ACL, which is quite a statement to make about anyone’s hockey career. Fabbri, 26, had 79 points (41 G, 38 A) in 138 games with Detroit over the past three seasons and now he will add some scoring depth to the Red Wings lineup. Like Pacioretty, Fabbri is starting lower on the depth chart, with Pius Suter and Oskar Sundqvist as his linemates, but he has enough upside that he can climb up the depth chart.

#3 For the past few weeks, the Winnipeg Jets have been battling through a lineup depleted by injuries, but that looks like it will be coming to an end. Nikolaj Ehlers, who played just two games before getting hurt, is a massive addition to the Jets lineup as one of the elite play-driving wingers in the game. Veteran right winger Blake Wheeler and rookie left winger Cole Perfetti are also on track to return, which gives the Jets lineup the kind of scoring depth that makes them a quality team. While Ehlers and Wheeler are rostered in many leagues, Perfetti is more readily available, and he had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his last 15 games before getting hurt.

#4 That the Washington Capitals have managed to climb into a playoff spot despite being without the services of Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom all season has been one of the best team accomplishments of the first half. Now, the Capitals are about to get those two veteran forwards back in the lineup and that should make the team more potent offensively. It might take some time, coming off of long-term injuries, but a healthy Backstrom and Wilson will make an impact for the Capitals, not least of all giving Washington the depth to diversify their attack.

#5 If there is a concern for players on the Washington roster, maybe cast a skeptical eye towards Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano. Strome had three assists in Thursday’s 6-2 win at Columbus, giving him 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 41 games, but he will likely lose ice time, including first unit power play time, when Backstrom is healthy. Milano has put up 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 28 games after he signed in mid-October. Hard to believe that a player of his skill level could not get a contract after the Ducks did not extend him a qualifying offer. Nevertheless, Strome and Milano could be pushed down the depth chart and that does give them less fantasy appeal.

#6 With Pittsburgh Penguins starting goaltender Tristan Jarry suffering a lower-body injury at the Winter Classic, it looks like Casey DeSmith will get to start some games in Jarry’s absence. DeSmith has been a capable backup, with a .907 save percentage and 0.77 Goals Allowed Above Expected, but if he gets regular starts for a few weeks, there is at least the potential for a greater fantasy impact. The Penguins are slumping, winless in six, but five of their next seven games are against teams currently outside the playoffs.

#7 Known for his strong defensive game, Seattle Kraken defenseman Adam Larsson has added some offense to his repertoire, and it is making him a viable fantasy contributor. Larsson was held off the scoresheet in Toronto on Thursday night, snapping a seven-game point streak, during which he had seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 16 shots on goal. While Larsson did not record a point against the Maple Leafs, he did have six hits and six blocked shots, giving him 104 hits and 83 blocked shots. The number of defensemen who have more hits and blocked shots than Larsson is one – it’s Jacob Trouba (123 hits, 97 blocked shots).

#8 Another defenseman that is known for his physical defensive play, New York Islanders blueliner Alexander Romanov has been contributing more offensively, enough to gain fantasy appeal. Last season, with Montreal, Romanov had 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 79 games. This season, he has matched that point total in 40 games and he still as 98 hits, which is tied for 10^th among defensemen.

#9 Known for his relentless hard-driving style of play, Seattle Kraken right winger Brandon Tanev is making an impact offensively and that suddenly makes him a legitimate fantasy consideration. Tanev has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past nine games and when his increased scoring numbers are combined with his 91 hits in 37 games, there is a path to Tanev contributing in deep or banger leagues.

#10 As the St. Louis Blues face the prospect of playing without Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko for more than a month, other forwards will have to step up if the Blues are still going to compete for a playoff spot. Brayden Schenn is one possibility. He is a reluctant shooter – aside from December 29, when he launched 11 shots on goal against the Blackhawks – but Schenn has 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in the past 14 games, including a couple of points in Tuesday’s win at Toronto when he played a season-high 22:49.

#11 The Philadelphia Flyers are showing signs of being a more competitive squad and center Scott Laughton has stepped up his game, producing 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in the past nine games. Laughton has 20 points (9 G, 11 A) and 83 hits in 35 games. There are only four centers with more in both categories – Vincent Trocheck, Sam Bennett, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Adam Lowry.

#12 While the Columbus Blue Jackets are already lacking a top playmaking center, they are trying to make do without and injured Boone Jenner, so Jack Roslovic has picked up some of the slack. Roslovic has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his past 13 games and has surpassed 20 minutes of ice time three times in the past eight games. He had played more than 20 minutes in a game once in 25 games before that.

#13 Although he is virtually always an elite play-driving winger, Nashville Predators forward Nino Niederreiter can see his production fade in and out over the course of a season. In his past nine games, Niederreiter has produced eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 27 shots on goal and that shot rate is what is encouraging for his point production. When his offense dries up, it tends to be when he is no longer generating shots. In 36 games this season, Niederreiter has recorded one or zero shots in 15 of those games.

#14 It is really too soon to start recommending Edmonton Oilers winger Klim Kostin, but the 23-year-old is starting to make a name for himself in Edmonton and has landed a spot skating on Connor McDavid’s wing. Kostin has five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past seven games and while that left wing spot is going to be Evander Kane’s again eventually, there might be some short-term fantasy value in Kostin, too.

#15 The Detroit Red Wings shocked the hockey world when they put winger Jakub Vrana on waivers this week. Even more shocking is that Vrana cleared. Since joining the Red Wings in a trade for Anthony Mantha, Vrana has scored 22 goals in 39 games, but he did spend most of the first half of the season in the Player Assistance Program. The idea, apparently, is for Vrana to get more playing time in the AHL before he returns to the NHL, but his situation bears watching, if only because a healthy Vrana is an elite five-on-five goal scorer and those guys are not easy to find.

#16 Staying in Detroit, second year Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond started slowly in his sophomore campaign, with just two assists through seven games. Since then, though, he has 21 points (10 G, 11 A) in 29 games and while he could stand to shoot the puck more, he has become a quality scoring threat for the Wings.

#17 After missing six weeks with an upper-body injury, Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman has returned to action and while he is not playing as much, he is still producing. In seven games since he returned to the lineup Hartman has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal despite playing 13:33 per game. He is also not skating at center between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, like he did when he scored a career-high 34 goals and 65 points last season, but if Sam Steel can hold that spot, Hartman gives the Wild more scoring depth with another line – right now that is with Matt Boldy and Frederick Gaudreau.

#18 At this stage of the season, finding goaltending can be a challenge, but it’s not impossible. Pheonix Copley has had an immediate impact on the Los Angeles Kings and is playing well enough to win, which gives him fantasy value. Who are some other goaltenders that might offer at least short-term value? Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson is the backup to Marc-Andre Fleury, but after a couple of shaky starts early in the year, he has been excellent, posting a .934 save percentage in his past 13 games. That is the kind of play that earns a backup more starts.

#19 I tend to be skeptical of Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo, who has had several below average seasons, but he does have a .939 save percentage in his past four starts and any sign of goaltending competence could earn the starting job for the Blue Jackets. The wins don’t come easily, though, so it might be worth waiting to see if Korpisalo can keep his form for a little while before pulling the trigger. Vancouver’s Collin Delia might get forced into action while Thatcher Demko is injured, because Spencer Martin is getting overwhelmed in the starter’s role. Delia has a .925 save percentage in four games and that is going to earn him more opportunities.

#20 Finally, when looking at expected goals leaders over the past month, naturally there are top-tier goal scorers included, like Alex Ovechkin, Jack Hughes, Connor McDavid, and David Pastrnak. It is interesting, though, to see some others that are generating high-quality chances. Others in the top dozen over the past month include Anders Lee, Zach Hyman, Michael Bunting, Drake Batherson, and Sam Reinhart. While most of those players are heating up offensively, Lee and Reinhart are probably still looking at additional room for positive regression.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:33:00 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 26: Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers (10) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 26, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jared McCann

Given a bigger role with an expansion team, the 26-year-old rose to the challenge and scored a career-high 27 goals and 50 points. Not only is McCann a play driving forward, but he has the shot to make the most of his scoring opportunities, scoring on 14.0% of his shots in the past two seasons after scoring on 8.8% of his shots during the five previous seasons. Some of that increase in shooting percentage is due to getting more time on the power play, where McCann has scored 15 of his 41 goals in the past two seasons. McCann has a strong defensive track record, so his emergence as a scorer gives him legitimate value as a two-way forward, one that is capable of playing center or wing. Another 50-point season, with 25 goals, should be in the cards for McCann this season.

Yanni Gourde

Coming to Seattle after winning a pair of Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay, Gourde had the third 20-goal season of his career and was the most dangerous playmaker on the roster. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and that passion brings out his best performance. The 30-year-old is a leader on the Kraken, not only because of his success in the league, but also because of the way that he plays. 20 goals and 50 points for this season is an expectation that is consistent with Gourde’s previous production. In his career, he has surpassed 20 goals three times and while he has surpassed 50 points just once, Gourde has two 48-point seasons to his credit as well.

Andre Burakovsky

Desperate to upgrade their skill level, the Kraken signed the Avalanche winger coming off the best season of his career, scoring 22 goals and 61 points. The challenge for Burakovsky will be trying to maintain his level of production even though his teammates will not be as skilled as those that he left in Colorado. The 27-year-old can play both wings and was effective while moving around the Avs lineup, so he should be able to inject some goals into the Seattle lineup. At least that is the expectation. While he might not match last season’s production, Burakovsky could deliver 25 goals and 55 points, which would be awfully valuable to a Kraken team that needs more goals.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Acquired in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Bjorkstrand is an excellent two-way winger who will immediately upgrade Seattle’s forward group. The 27-year-old had a career-high 28 goals and 57 points last season and even though he was minus-35, the Blue Jackets had outshot and out-chanced the opposition with Bjorkstrand on the ice. That he can score is not any kind of surprise, because he is a three-time 20-goal scorer, but Bjorkstrand has also delivered strong defensive results, and that probably makes him more valuable than the public might perceive. Bjorkstand could add 25 goals and 50-plus points to the Kraken, and the additions of Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand could go a long way towards providing the Kraken with the offensive punch they lacked last season.

Jordan Eberle

The veteran winger had his seventh 20-goal season, which was expected, but his overall impacts were not as strong as they had been in previous seasons with the New York Islanders. Now 32, Eberle can still provide offense but might be getting to the point at which he provides secondary offense because decline should be coming and Eberle has never been one to rely on physical gifts so much as positioning, anticipation, and intelligence to get into scoring position. Eberle could reasonably be expected to contribute 20 goals and 45 points this season.

Jaden Schwartz

A 30-year-old left winger with a strong reputation for his ability to drive play, but also a reputation for missing time with injuries, Schwartz could still drive play last season, but he scored on just 7.9% of his shots and missed 45 games due to a broken hand, upper and lower-body injuries. Getting a healthy Schwartz for the 2022-2023 season should be a plus for the Kraken because he can still get the puck moving the right way when he is on the ice. Health is a big challenge for Schwartz, as he has missed at least a dozen games in four of his past five seasons. If he manages to stay healthy, though, 45-50 points is possible for Schwartz.

Alexander Wennberg

A playmaking center who is quietly effective defensively, Wennberg contributed 37 points in his first season with the Kraken, his most points in a season since 2016-2017. His ability to handle a defensive role helps free up others to play in scoring roles, but when he is on his game, Wennberg can be a skilled playmaker in his own right. He played quite a bit with Bjorkstand in Columbus, and they had success together, controlling 55.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts and 57.1% of 5-on-5 goals from 2017-2018 through 2019-2020. Considering the newfound depth on the Kraken roster, Wennberg probably won’t be asked to handle a major offensive role, so 35 points is a fair expectation.

Joonas Donskoi

The veteran winger had scored between 14 and 17 goals in four consecutive seasons before 2021-2022, when he scored two goals in 75 games. He is a low volume shooter, which is not ideal, but generally plays a solid enough game to comfortably fit in a middle six role, just so long as he does not finish with two goals in 75 games! With improved depth on the wings in Seattle, there is not going to be as much pressure on Donskoi to produce, but it also could mean fewer opportunities. Donskoi has also had shootout success in his career, as his success rate of 56.3% ranks fourth among active players with at least 10 attempts. It would seem impossible for Donskoi to score on such a low percentage (1.9%) of his shots again, so he should be able to score at least a dozen goals and maybe 30-35 points this season.

Ryan Donato

Typical depth wingers in the NHL are often of the crash and bang variety, players that may not have the most skill, but Donato leans more in that direction, so he might be a fourth line winger but is a shootout specialist and coming off a season in which he produced a career high 16 goals and 31 points. Donato has been successful on 47.4% of his career shootout attempts, ranking 11^th among active players with at least 10 attempts. In any case, Donato does a fair job generating shots and a little offense and if he provides 15 goals and 30 points in a depth role, that would be good value.

DEFENSE

Vince Dunn

Moving to Seattle was supposed to free up Dunn for his best offensive performance and he did play a career high 20:41 per game for the Kraken last season. Dunn’s 35 points tied his career best, set in 2018-2019, and he is the most offensively gifted of Seattle’s blueliners, but he should be able to produce more than he did last season. At 25-years-old, he is in his prime and if the Kraken have upgraded their offense enough, it would be reasonable to expect Dunn to bust out offensively, even if it is a year after it might have been anticipated. Unless the Kraken make a change on the blueline, Dunn is still their best bet to work on the power play so he should be able to exceed last year’s total of 35 points.

Adam Larsson

A steady stay-at-home blueliner, Larsson did produce a career high eight goals and 25 points in his first season with the Kraken, but his value is more related to his shot suppression skills. He is big and mobile and will lay his body on the line as both a hitter and shot blocker and while that is the type of game that can tend to age poorly, the 29-year-old has appeared in every game in three of the past four seasons. His steady presence remains valuable to the Kraken, even if he is not expected to ever produce huge point totals. While he has scored 20 points or more in three different seasons, that is a tad optimistic for Larsson’s production this season.

Jamie Oleksiak

The towering blueliner stepped into a regular role on the Kraken blueliner and played more than 19 minutes per game on his way to tying his career high in points with 17. Oleksiak did record a career high 182 hits while achieving positive shot differentials despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Oleksiak could be more aggressive offensively – the 29-year-old has shown that he can skate and handle the puck better than one might think of a 6-foot-7, 255-pound defenseman, so there could be room for a bigger contribution, but there is plenty of value in filling the role of a physically imposing shutdown defenseman, too. He might have the potential to record a 20-point season, but the fair expectation would be for a little less than that.

Justin Schultz

The 32-year-old right shot blueliner saw his role reduced significantly in Washington last season, as he averaged a career low 16:55 of ice time per game. He plays a relatively understated role at this stage of his career and yet his ability to make a good pass and get the puck moving out of the defensive zone still leads to favorable shot differentials. The Kraken could use that puck-moving element so Schultz is likely to see more ice time than he did with Washington last season, so there might be a path to greater point production. Schultz had 23 points last season but has had six seasons in which he has recorded more than 25 points, so 25-30 points is still a possibility this season.

GOALTENDING

Philipp Grubauer

The Seattle Kraken entered their inaugural season looking a bit like the cat that got the canary. They’d managed to lure Colorado Avalanche backstop Philipp Grubauer away from the presumed Stanley Cup favorites, forcing the Central Division club to scramble and overpay for a rental instead of entering the year with players they already knew and loved. The lack of a structured defensive system for Grubauer to learn, though, left the analysis-driven German netminder floundering in his new environment; where he was one of the league’s hottest commodities leading up to opening night, he was one of the biggest free agency letdowns by the time the regular season was over.

Grubauer had been open in the past about needing time to fully internalize a team’s desired defensive system in order to move within it comfortably, so Seattle’s disastrous start to their first year almost certainly left him desperate for some order and consistency. He missed reads and seemed to be moving on a different wavelength from his teammates some nights, which left him vulnerable to bad-angle shots and sloppy rebounds – and while Colorado’s monstrous offense was easily able to shelter him during his first-year learning curve with the Avalanche a few seasons ago, Seattle’s chaotic rookie year exposed his struggles and almost certainly made them a little bit worse. As a result, it seems like a no-brainer that his performance this year will be reliant on the team’s ability to give him something to work with – and until they’ve shown that they’re able to learn from last season’s mistakes, it’s not likely he’ll be inspiring much in the way of faith from fans and pundits alike.

Projected starts: 55-60

GOALTENDING

Martin Jones

Very few teams looked to be good fits for Martin Jones this off-season, after he once again struggled to regain his early career form during a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. His arrival with the Seattle Kraken, though, seems especially perplexing; like Philadelphia, the Kraken are a team that struggled to perform last year and need stability that Jones hasn’t offered in a number of years.

It feels a bit like a broken record to evaluate Martin Jones year after year as his career continues to exhibit strong Groundhog Day-esque tendencies. He still lacks the structure and balance to his lateral movements and reads that could stabilize his timing and close off the massive holes he opened up in his own crease for shooters to capitalize on, even after he finally left San Jose and opted for a fresh start clear across the continental United States. There’s not much that Philadelphia had to offer that made it seem likely that Jones would bounce back last year, which makes it hard to truly evaluate if he’s capable of ever reaching league-average full-season stats again. But the bad news is that Seattle, too, struggled from a systems stability standpoint last year. It’s hard to take a look at what Seattle did in their inaugural year and feel confident that Jones will turn things around.

Of course, there’s always a chance he won’t need to. If Philipp Grubauer is able to stabilize his own game for long enough, the Kraken could find themselves allowing Jones an incredibly short leash until Chris Driedger is able to return from their injured reserve list.

Projected starts: 20-25

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Factors that make top value fantasy picks – the unexpected and perhaps should have been expected

Scott Cullen — Wed, 12 May 2021 21:31:51 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, looking at the factors that made the top value picks in fantasy this season. Some of these seasons were totally unexpected. Maybe a few of them we could have seen coming.

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 13: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) controls the puck in the second period during the regular season NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs on February 13, 2020 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

NASHVILLE, TN - MARCH 30: Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars, held on March 30, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Even if their team’s season ended up disappointing, the Dallas Stars were a source of fantasy value.

Joe Pavelski had 31 points in 67 games for the Stars last season, his first in Dallas, but he did rebound with 13 goals and 19 points in 27 playoff games last season. Even so, expectations had to be modest for a 36-year-old coming off his worst regular season. But the Stars needed Pavelski’s production. Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov both missed most of the season and that contributed to Pavelski playing more than 19 minutes per game this season after playing 16:56 last season. Pavelski ended up scoring 20 more points, including 10 more power play points, this season than he did last season.

One of the biggest breakout, ahem, stars in the game this season was Roope Hintz, who was a legitimate candidate for a breakthrough season but he also had two goals in 25 playoff games last season so it was hardly a lock. Hintz was playing through a groin injury for most of the season, and missed some games as a result, but he still produced 43 points in 41 games. Not many players see their ice time jump like Hintz, gaining 3:29 per game compared to last season, but his increased production was also tied to a spike in on-ice shooting percentage, from 8.3% to 11.3% year over year.

How are you as a fantasy manager supposed to know about a player’s role when the very team that he plays for doesn’t really know either? Jason Robertson was not in the Dallas lineup at the start of the season and played sparingly in a couple of games before sitting out for another 10 days before playing his third game. He started to score which earned him more playing time but his shot rates were still relatively modest. Robertson had 32 shots on goal in his first 20 games but has 95 shots on goal in 31 games since.

#2 Goaltending is difficult to project for anyone and that includes fantasy managers. Coming into the season, a consensus Top 10 of goaltenders would have likely included Carter Hart, Ilya Samsonov, Jordan Binnington, Carey Price, and Frederik Andersen. You know who wasn’t getting love in the preseason? Chris Driedger, Alex Nedeljkovic, Mike Smith, and Jack Campbell. Sometimes, for fantasy success, goaltending can be saved by the right guy at the right time from the waiver wire, which is also a reasonable argument against taking a goaltender too early in your draft.

#3 Those weren’t the only unheralded goaltenders to have fantasy value either. When Cam Talbot was hurt for Minnesota, Kaapo Kahkonen was a major factor. Vitek Vanecek played much more than anyone could have expected for Washington and Jake Oettinger ended up in a significant role with Dallas. For a good portion of the season, Kevin Lankinen was a surprise hit in Chicago before fading down the stretch.

#4 One of my preseason sleeper favorites was Carolina center Vincent Trocheck. His production had understandably tailed off since suffering a broken leg in November of 2018, and he only had four points in 15 (regular season plus playoff) games for the Hurricanes after he was acquired from Florida last season. This season, Trocheck was healthy from the start, played on the first power play unit and, despite playing 47 games, recorded more than 100 hits for the sixth consecutive season. There were no guarantees on Trocheck coming into the season but was well worth a mid-round pick because his power play production and hit totals gave him potential high-end fantasy value.

#5 Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun led all blueliners with 18 goals and ranked second with 176 shots on goal, behind only Dougie Hamilton, who had 180 shots on goal. He was a late-round pick in most leagues if not waiver wire fodder.

#6 While the Vegas Golden Knights have star players that can make a major impact, some of the best fantasy value on the team came in the bargain bin. Alec Martinez was in a league of his own as a shot blocker, putting up 3.17 blocks per game. Chicago’s Connor Murphy ranked second at 2.46 blocked shots per game.

There may have been some expectation that Cody Glass would knock Chandler Stephenson out of the top line center role at some point this season but it did not happen. Stephenson maintained his role, playing between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, and has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) in the past 17 games with none of those points coming on the power play.

#7 While it is fair to question the contributions of Edmonton’s supporting cast of forwards, as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were the only three with more than 25 points, the Oilers did offer big value on the blueline.

Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie were the most common teammates for Connor McDavid and Barrie ranks second among defensemen with 46 points while Nurse ranks 12^th with 36 points.

The other value to be found on the Edmonton defense was with Adam Larsson, who was one of four defensemen to average better than two hits and two blocked shots per game. Connor Murphy, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard were the others. Nikita Zaitsev was a rounding error away on blocked shots from joining that group.

#8 The calls for New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox to win the Norris Trophy got a little quieter when he didn’t register a point in the last six games of the season but he still leads defensemen with 47 points and while there may have been legitimate reason to be optimistic about Fox’s second NHL campaign, it’s not exactly standard fare for anyone to have their ice time increase by 5:48 per game.

#9 While Nikolaj Ehlers took a notable step forward for the Winnipeg Jets the big value to be gained for fantasy managers was getting Andrew Copp. Coming into the season, Copp had a career high of 28 points but then produced 39 points this season, despite fading down the stretch. His lineup versatility saw him move around a lot and that included a role on the power play and Copp scored 12 of his 39 points with the man advantage.

#10 The Pittsburgh Penguins were a source of surprising production from a couple of forwards. In the wake of Evgeni Malkin’s injury, Jared McCann stepped into the second-line center role and from the beginning of March through the end of the season, McCann scored 26 points and had 74 shots on goal in 30 games.

#11 Pittsburgh’s big trade deadline acquisition was Jeff Carter, who has scored nine goals in 14 games with the Penguins after scoring eight goals in 40 games for the Los Angeles Kings. Carter is one of a dozen players with nine or more goals since the trade deadline.

#12 The three players tied with the most goals since the trade deadline, with 11, were all good sources of fantasy value this season. Minnesota Wild rookie Kirill Kaprizov came into the league with expectations and started scoring immediately but he became a high-end shot generator, too, putting up 3.4 shots per game in his past 37 games after just 1.6 shots per game in the first 17 games of his career. Chicago winger Alex DeBrincat had a down season in 2019-2020, scoring 18 goals after taylling a career-high 41 goals the season before. DeBrincat’s shot rate stayed consistent but this season scored on 20.6% of his shots after scoring on 8.7% of his shots in 2019-2020. 32 goals in 52 games this season is the best per-game goal rate of DeBrincat’s career. The third player with 11 goals since the trade deadline is Buffalo Sabres forward Sam Reinhart, who had 11 goals on 46 shots in 14 games down the stretch to end up tying his career high of 25 goals. As with anything good for the Sabres this season, it mostly got lost under the mountain of bad.

#13 I wrote quite a bit about the Florida Panthers a few weeks ago but they were a source of fantastic fantasy value this season. MacKenzie Weegar’s ice time increased by a couple of minutes per game and he did generate more hits than in previous seasons but he doubled his previous career-high of 18 points, and finished with a plus-29 in 54 games.

#14 Carter Verhaeghe was one of the best stories of the season, a fourth liner who won the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay in 2019-2020, Verhaeghe was installed on Florida’s top line and he produced 2.56 points/60 at even strength, more than Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen and many others. Should you have known that Verhaeghe could be this productive? Probably not because when an unproven player gets a chance to play on the first line, there are many instances where it is short-lived and quickly forgotten. Such is the nature of the sport, where a coach can change his mind and alter a player’s fantasy value in dramatic fashion. That didn’t happen with Verhaeghe in Florida.

NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers, held on April 27, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#15 It would be simple to say that Sam Bennett just needed an opportunity to play in a scoring role, that he just wasn’t given the opportunity in his nearly six seasons with the Calgary Flames but he has had instances in which he was been productive, most notably in the playoffs, where he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 41 shots on goal in 15 games over the past two years. But Bennett also didn’t have a consistent run alongside a player like Jonathan Huberdeau and what stands out about Bennett, in addition to the fact that he scored 15 points in 10 games after the Panthers acquired him at the trade deadline, but he also recorded 39 shots on goal. His 3.90 shots on goal per game since the trade deadline ranks fifth, behind Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Jakob Chychrun, and Evander Kane.

#16 One more Panther of fantasy note is defenseman Radko Gudas, who was fantasy relevant in one specific category, recording 4.63 hits per game, the only defenseman above 4.00 hits per game. Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Tanev, and Tyler Motte were the three forwards that had more than four hits per game. Sabres defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, with 3.93 hits per game, was next highest among defensemen.

#17 The Carolina Hurricanes had a trio of forwards that provided big fantasy value relative to their preseason ranking, too. Martin Necas had a promising rookie season in 2019-2020 but with three more minutes of ice time per game this season, his production picked up and he produced 30 points (12 G, 18 A) in 36 games since the beginning of March.

Veteran center Jordan Staal scored 38 points in 53 games; 0.72 points per game was his highest since 2011-2012 and getting that production, along with 135 hits, put Staal in rare company and, at this stage of his career, Staal did not have such high expectations coming into the season.

#18 There were some positives to take from the Ottawa Senators’ rebuilding effort and the best fantasy value may have come from the likes of Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, who both had the good fortunate to play most of the season with Brady Tkachuk. Batherson had 34 points (17 G, 17 A) with 15 points on the power play and 97 hits in 55 games. Norris also had 34 points (16 G, 18 A) and 14 power play points in 55 games, putting up 13 points in 14 games to finish the season.

#19 Arizona Coyotes winger Conor Garland saw his ice time jump by 3:46 from the 2019-2020 season and he ended up with as many points (39) in 46 games in 2020-2021, as he scored in 68 games the season before.

#20 It’s not always easy to pick out which young forwards are going to get real opportunities to shine with their teams. Ice time matters. Role matters. Jesper Bratt got a late start to the season in New Jersey then contributed 30 points in 46 games, even while scoring on a career-low 6.9% of his shots. Maxime Comtois led the Anaheim Ducks with 33 points and added 93 hits. Nashville’s Eeli Tolvanen needed some injuries to create a chance for him and then he scored 22 points in 40 games, with 12 of those points on the power play.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Scott Cullen’s 20 Points on Fantasy Hockey 3/10/21 – Consistent shooters getting rewarded

Scott Cullen — Wed, 10 Mar 2021 20:18:49 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, some consistent shooters are getting rewarded, a Pittsburgh star is turning around his season, Buffalo’s best are having a hard time, and heavy hitters have value too.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

#1 I wrote last week about how unfortunate Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell had been around the net this season, scoring two goals on 69 shots. The underlying message was that his shot rates still gave reason for hope that Rakell would start finding the net. A week later, he has scored four goals on 14 shots in the past four games and is suddenly one of the hottest scorers in the league with 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak.

#2 Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine was supposed to add a jolt of electricity to the Columbus attack and it just has not materialized, in part because he is not getting enough chances to shoot the puck. In 17 games with Columbus, Laine is generating 5.35 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play. His lowest shot rate in Winnipeg was 7.53 shots/60 when he was a rookie in 2016-2017. The story is not any better on the power play either. During 5-on-4 action, Laine’s shot rate is similar to last season but 20.5 shot attempts/60 is easily a career low and 0.67 expected goals/60 is also a career low. All of this is to suggest that if the Blue Jackets would like to get their sniper out of his seven-game scoreless slump, he needs to get more opportunities to shoot the puck.

#3 This does not absolve Laine, by the way. His most common linemates, Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson, have had better results away from Laine so this story is not about how they must feed their scoring winger, even though that may be part the answer. The other part is that Laine has to be more intent on getting his shots and he is a player who tends to require assistance in that part of the game, as opposed to creating his own scoring opportunities. He did record six shots on goal against Florida Tuesday so that is a step in the right direction, but his shot volume has to improve if he is going to live up to expectations.

#4 In 2018-2019, Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals while scoring on 18.6% of his shots. Some good fortune to score at that rate. Last season, regression hit hard and even with improved shot volume, his shooting percentage plummeted to 8.6% and DeBrincat finished with 18 goals in 70 games. This season, he is shooting even more, up from 2.96 shots per game to 3.43 shots per game, and with his shooting percentage jumping back up to 17.7%, DeBrincat has 14 goals in 23 games. That shooting percentage may be a little lofty, but it is easier to expect sustained offense out of DeBrincat if his shot rate remains high.

#5 A player who was generating shots and scoring chances early in the season, with very little to show for it, is Ottawa Senators right winger Drake Batherson, who had one goal on 38 shots through 16 games and even that goal was on the power play. Batherson has since broken through for eight goals in the past 12 games, including none in the past four games so he did have a stretch of eight goals in eight games. The nature of goal-scoring is such that players may run through hot and cold stretches but that is why it is important to keep generating shots so that the opportunity is there for pucks to get into the net.

#6 So which forward might be generating shots at a high rate that might not be finishing so successfully yet? San Jose right winger Timo Meier, Ottawa left winger Brady Tkachuk, Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon, Nashville right winger Viktor Arvidsson, Boston right winger Craig Smith, and Buffalo left winger Jeff Skinner are among the Top 15 in shot attempts/60 during 5-on-5 play but are all scoring on less than 7% of their 5-on-5 shots on net. You are not likely to get bargains on Tkachuk or MacKinnon and Skinner’s situation in Buffalo does not warrant much fantasy interest but Timo Meier and possibly Viktor Arvidsson could have some upside.

#7 Regression is not merely about unsustainably high percentages coming down. Sometimes the reverse is true. Consider Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore, who has emerged as a dynamic puck-moving defenseman. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, Theodore’s on-ice shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play was 6.4%, eighth lowest among defensemen to play at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes in those two seasons and lowest among defensemen that played at least 2000 minutes. This season, his on-ice shooting percentage is 11.5%, which is unsustainably high, but he has been due for better on-ice results.

#8 This season has seemingly been a struggle for Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has just eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 15 games. He has never been a high-volume shooter but Kuznetsov’s shot rate at 5-on-5 (6.5 per 60) is better than the past couple of seasons and the Capitals are creating 57.0 shot attempts/60, which is a career high for Kuznetsov. The problem, at least for 5-on-5 play, is that Kuznetsov’s percentages are way down. He is scoring on 4.6% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4% is a career low; his on-ice shooting percentage had been over 10.0% in the previous five seasons, over 11.0% in the past two.

#9 One of the issues affecting Kuznetsov’s point production, beyond those percentages, is that his power play ice time is down from 3:11 per game last season to 2:01 per game this season.

#10 With Jack Eichel out of the Sabres lineup for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, it is noteworthy just how poor his production has been this season and it entirely possible that the injury has played a significant part in his struggles. Eichel has just two goals in 21 games but the underlying numbers are terrible, too. His 5-on-5 shot (7.0 per 60) and expected goals rates (0.54 per 60) are at career lows.

#11 Compare that to Taylor Hall, another Buffalo forward with just two goals in 24 games. Hall’s 5-on-5 shot rate (7.3 per 60) is a career low but his expected goals (0.82 per 60) is consistent with his past two seasons, so he has 4.87 expected goals to this point in the season yet has managed just one goal at 5-on-5.

#12 Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin got off to a rough start this season, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 26 shots on goal in his first 13 games. For a 34-year-old player who typically generates a lot of shots this was a little concerning. Since then, Malkin has 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in 12 games. There is a big jump in point production with an extra half shot on goal per game but the notable difference for Malkin is in power play shooting where his 5-on-4 shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 minutes have all spiked.

First 13 games (5-on-4): 16.8 iCF/60, 6.1 shots/60, 0.42 ixG/60

Next 12 games (5-on-4): 32.2 iCF/60, 16.1 shots/60, 1.73 ixG/60

#13 It is possible to be a factor in fantasy hockey without putting up points. It’s not easy but peripheral categories like hits and blocked shots have value, too. Florida defenseman Radko Gudas leads the league with 118 hits in 24 games, an average of 4.9 per game. At his most rambunctious days with Philadelphia in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, Gudas averaged 4.1 hits per game, so he has increased his hit rate by nearly 20% despite a decrease in ice time from those heavy-hitting days with the Flyers.

#14 Other hitters that are not necessarily going to draw interest with their point production but still can lower the boom and help your fantasy team: Pittsburgh winger Brandon Tanev (4.7 hits per game), Anaheim defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (4.0 hits per game), and Vegas enforcer Ryan Reaves (3.9 hits/game).

#15 There are four defensemen that have played at least 10 games and have averaged at least two hits and two blocked shots per game: Adam Larsson, Calvin de Haan, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard. Larsson is the only one averaging three hits and three blocks per game.

#16 The most prolific shooter in the league who is still available in many leagues is Minnesota Wild right winger Kevin Fiala, who is generating 3.6 shots per game. He started the season with no goals in the first four games, then scored six goals in seven games, then no goals in six games, and now has two goals in the past three games. Overall, he has eight goals in 20 games. The bigger issue for Fiala’s production is that he has just three assists after he had 31 assists in 64 games last season.

#17 Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having the best season of his career, at least through 16 games. He leads the league with a .943 save percentage and his .926 save percentage during 4-on-5 play and .942 save percentage during 5-on-5 play are the high-water marks for his career.

#18 While the shot and expected goal rates have been similar to previous seasons, Fleury has reaped the rewards of outstanding penalty killing from the Golden Knights so far this season. See the difference of Vegas’ on-ice results during 4-on-5 play with Fleury in net compared to last season. There has been a dramatic decline in Corsi, shots, and expected goals against.

2019-2020 (4-on-5): 97.9 CA/60, 50.8 SA/60, 6.04 xGA/60

2020-2021 (4-on-5): 70.2 CA/60, 27.9 SA/60, 3.93 xGA/60

#19 Philadelphia defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has climbed out of the doghouse and is playing much more aggressively. A healthy scratch early in the season, Gostisbehere has five points (4 G, 1 A) with 31 shots on goal in the past eight games. Among defensemen who have played at least minutes in 5-on-4 situations this season, Gostisbehere has the highest rate of Corsi/60 (32.4), shots/60 (19.9), and expected goals/60 (1.56).

#20 Other defensemen that have high shot rates yet are still available in fantasy leagues: Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, and New Jersey’s P.K. Subban.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

McFries – Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:46:43 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - Hard to call last season anything other than an unmitigated disaster both in the standing, horrific enough in dropping 25 points to finish sixth in your division, 22^nd in the league - after finishing second in your division and winning a playoff round. The optics of Taylor Hall winning the Hart trophy and Matt Barzal (they traded the pick he was taken with along with the 33^rd overall for Griffin Reinhart) winning the Calder, were brutal. Questions surround GM Chiarelli’s big acquisitions including Milan Lucic, Cam Talbot and Adam Larsson (albeit with a difficult personal situation) had dismal seasons. He and coach Todd McLellan are on the hot seat entering their fourth season after an uncharacteristic quiet offseason.

Connor McDavid

MOVING FORWARDS - The season started with great excitement after their first playoff appearance in 10 seasons and a generational first line center in Connor McDavid, and his number two ‘the Messier-apparent’ amongst the fan base, Leon Draisaitl – both signed to monster contracts to start the season. Nobody can fault either for their performance, though some will try with Draisaitl (70 points in 80 games) by not ascending to superstar status.

Talbot should bounce back, and Larsson did what was expected of him when available. Solid but not an offensive juggernaut. Lucic with five years remaining on a healthy contract looked lost, slow and the game appears to be passing him by. His typical fiery, nasty, physical side seemed lost with one goal and eight assists in the last 46 games. It seems to be a long way back to be effective. A proud competitor he needs to find his spirit and game. He can add a dimension when he does.

Ryan Strome, the key piece added for Jordan Eberle struggled as well with his second worst showing in points-per-game in five seasons. The fifth overall pick just turned 25, so will be given the benefit of the doubt in his second season in Alberta, but window seems to be closing on whether this prospect will breakout. Questions about skating nag him in the modern NHL. He and Lucic were paired together last season and the great hope is they can anchor an effective third line with scoring potential. Anchor being perhaps a bad choice of word.

6’4, 215 pound Jujhar Khaira was one of very few pleasant surprises and a heavy presence on the boards and physically. He also boasts impressive skating and decent puck skills. Ready to take the fourth line center role and let the other pieces fall into place. Number four pick 20-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi may take some seasoning yet. Tried beside Lucic, even McDavid for a ten-game test, but eventually saw a myriad of wingers after that, but had settled in alongside Lucic by the end of the season.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ended the season lining up beside Connor McDavid on the wing after a long trial with Lucic. Draisaitl played sporadically with Draisaitl as well, but clearly, they want the two to lead separate lines. Nugent-Hopkins as an effective centreman provides a plug and play option on the top two lines allowing the coach to play Draisaitl with McDavid when necessary.

DEFENSIVE CHALLENGES - The Oilers defense had its challenges last season, but a young group with some promise. Oscar Klefbom entered the season as a potential breakout candidate with an opportunity to seize the lead role on the back end of a potentially lethal offenSe. The result was a power play finishing dead last in the league, bookended with a woeful penalty kill (25^th). A combination of injuries, lost confidence contributed to a long season and a subject of trade rumours. A rebound season is possible and signed to a reasonable $4.167 million AAV for the next five years. A left-shot defenseman, they covet a right-hand shot, with Larsson and Matthew Benning the only options. Justin Faulk is available but there is scant left in the cupboard after Chiarelli used it up in the past two seasons.

The emergence of Darnell Nurse in 2018-19 was one of the bright spots. He was second on the team in TOI/GP including time on the penalty kill and in key situations. He saw little power play time but brings size and intensity to the blueline and an RFA this season

They received a blow when it was learnt that Andrej Sekera was sidelined indefinitely with a torn achilles heal after a shortened season last year. His absence leaves a void that will provide urgency to trade rumours.

Cam Talbot ranks amongst the most disappointing revelations of 17-18 after a terrific 16-17 and the apparent solution in the net. He struggled out of the gate last year and never quite found his form. In the final year of his contract at 31-years-old this remains an area of great exposure for the Oilers. He was a tower in 73 appearances in the previous season, and his regression showed how exposed the organization is in net. They signed Mikko Koskinen out of the KHL after a standout season for $2.5 million for one season.

OUTLOOK – They should be improved but questions on the back end and depending on a number of players to have bounce back season, most importantly Talbot. They will struggle to be competitive for a playoff spot.