Adin Hill – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Team Preview

Sat, 20 Sep 2025 20:01:13 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - DECEMBER 14: Las Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Shea Theodore (27) races up ice in the first period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on December 14, 2024 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The Golden Knights improved by a dozen points over their 2023-2024 total, finishing with 110 points (50-22-10), which was good enough to land atop the Pacific Division. They eliminated the Minnesota Wild in six games in the first round but were bounced from the postseason in five games by the Edmonton Oilers in the second round. During the regular season, the Golden Knights were a solid puck possession squad, ranking seventh with 51.8 percent Corsi and 53.1 percent expected goals percentage. The Golden Knights had an excellent power play, ranking second in the league with 9.98 goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. However, they offset that with penalty killing problems. The Golden Knights allowed 8.59 goals against per 60 minutes at four-on-five, which ranked 26th.

What’s Changed?

The Golden Knights made the biggest move of the offseason to acquire Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs in a sign-and-trade deal that sent centre Nicolas Roy to Toronto. Vegas also sent defenceman Nicolas Hague to the Nashville Predators in a trade to acquire checking centre Colton Sissons and defenceman Jeremy Lauzon. A big issue that will hang over the Golden Knights is the status of defenceman Alex Pietrangelo, whose NHL future is in doubt due to a hip that requires reconstructive surgery. Winger Victor Oloffson signed with Colorado, and he had 29 points (14 G, 15 A) in 56 games for Vegas in 2024-2025. In goal, the Golden Knights have moved on from Ilya Samsonov, with Akira Schmid, acquired from New Jersey in 2024, slated to be the back up to Adin Hill.

What would success look like?

Success for the Golden Knights is a Stanley Cup. They may not get there every year, but in eight seasons, the franchise has one Stanley Cup win, one loss in the Final, and two more years in which they were among the final four teams. The roster looks like one that should be able to contend and if they are anywhere close, there is little doubt that the Golden Knights would look to add even more talent.

What could go wrong?

Vegas really needs Marner to make a smooth transition to the team, and continue to play at a star level, because if he can do that, it will alleviate pressure on some of the other forwards, including captain Mark Stone, who is 33 years old and is walking a tightrope every season because of ongoing back troubles. The Golden Knights have enough talent that they can handle some injuries or a player or two underperforming and still make the playoffs, but if Stone missed significant time due to injury and Marner struggles to adjust, the season would be more challenging.

Top Breakout Candidate

On a team full of veterans, the best chance for a breakout season might come from backup goaltender Akira Schmid. He has not had a dominant season in the AHL and had a .886 save percentage in 30 games for Henderson last season, but he did have a .944 save percentage in a handful of games for Vegas and he had a .899 save percentage in 43 games for New Jersey over the previous three seasons. If Schmid has the backup role and Hill gets hurt, which has been known to happen, then there could be an opportunity for Schmid to make a bigger impact on the team.

Forwards

Jack Eichel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	35	63	98	1.26

Jack Eichel didn’t just break personal best records for assists and total points last year; he also broke the Las Vegas franchise record, and he didn’t even need a whole season to do it. He posted 28 goals and 66 assists for a total of 94 points in 77 games. A dynamic two-way superstar, Eichel blends elite vision with sharp playmaking. He can navigate through traffic with a high level of effectiveness, evidenced by the fact that he was in the 100^th percentile of NHL forwards concerning offensive zone entries. He is also elite at setting up teammates, as he was in the 99^th percentile of NHL forwards in terms of primary shot assists. He showcases leadership and discipline, having been a finalist for the Lady Byng trophy. Eichel would be well served to shoot the puck more, as he was only in the third percentile of NHL forwards regarding offensive zone shots-attempts. His puck skill, combined with his elite skating, makes him a handful for NHL defenders. Eichel is entering the final year of his eight-year contract, and both team and player have indicated an interest in signing a long-term commitment this season. The off-season splash of Mitch Marner only elevates the offensive expectations for Eichel; with two elite creators up front, he could easily approach the 100-point mark if he maintains health and momentum.

Mitch Marner

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	75	104	1.27

Mitch Marner arrived in Las Vegas as the biggest acquisition splash of the summer. Marner looks to wipe the slate clean after several disappointing exits from the playoffs in Toronto, with a lot of the focus and discussion being centric to his performance in the losses. Vegas will produce an entirely different vibe from the bright lights of Toronto. Marner delivered an excellent 2024–25 campaign, tallying 102 points (27 goals, 75 assists) in 81 games. He ranked fifth in league scoring and set a new personal best for points. His assist total placed him third among all NHL players. Marner is a shifty forward with an elite offensive skill set, strong puck manipulation, and stellar playmaking abilities. His in-zone offence ranked in the 95^th percentile of NHL forwards, and he was extraordinarily helpful in exiting the puck from danger in the defensive zone. Now donning #93 in Vegas after signing an eight-year, $96 million deal ($12M AAV), expect Marner to enter a partnership with Jack Eichel that elevates expectations even more, perhaps north of 100 points. With his setup skills and deceptive shot, he’ll anchor the power play and contribute heavily at even-strength. Health and adaptation to a new system are key, but the skill and production trajectory suggest Marner is ready to assert himself as an elite force in Las Vegas.

Mark Stone

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	20	45	65	0.96

Despite some injury troubles that caused him to miss time, Mark Stone remained one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL last season. While some elements of his game took a bit of a recession, he was every bit of the play driver and possession commander that we’ve come to know over the years. In 66 regular-season games, he posted 19 goals and 48 assists for 67 points, ranking among the team’s top producers. A consummate two-way winger, Stone balances elite defensive awareness, especially in takeaways and puck recoveries, along with dynamic offensive skill. His defensive Wins Above Replacement at even-strength put him in the 92^nd percentile of NHL defencemen. His forechecking involvement seemed to take a step back, as falling in the seventh percentile of NHL defencemen in that bucket is a career low for him since the data started to be tracked. Despite that, his overall In-Zone Offence ranked in the 93^rd percentile of NHL forwards, a testament to his continued lethality from a scoring perspective. Stone’s 48 assists last season were the highest mark of his NHL career. Heading into his age-34 season, Stone remains central to Vegas’s identity, providing invaluable leadership on and off the ice as captain. If healthy, a projection in the 65–75 point range seems viable, with continued contributions on top special teams and key matchups.

Tomas Hertl

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	30	32	62	0.83

Following his mid-season acquisition in March 2024, Hertl fully settled into the Golden Knights lineup for 2024–25. He played 73 games, contributing 32 goals and 29 assists for 61 points with a –3 plus/minus rating—making him one of Vegas’s most reliable offensive producers. He averaged just over 18 minutes per game, wielding significant responsibility in all situations. He was an elite driver of offense for Vegas, as he came in the 92^nd percentile of NHL forwards in shots and the 90^th percentile of NHL forwards in plays that contributed to a shot. His combination of individual skill, vision, and ability to work through traffic was a vital asset on the power-play, where his offensive Wins Above Replacement put him in the 91^st percentile of NHL forwards. Hertl possesses an elite shot with a quick release, strong net-front awareness, and the ability to score in tight spaces. His blend of size and agility allows him to create space off the cycle, win puck battles, and finish rush chances with a lethal touch. His two-way instincts add balance to his offensive game. Hertl is projected to remain an integral top six center or wing and a staple on the primary power-play unit. If he maintains health and production, another 60+ point season is realistic with his offensive versatility and playoff experience. Hertl has shown the ability to dominate his share of second-line minutes.

Ivan Barbashev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	21	32	53	0.65

In 2024-25, Ivan Barbashev crossed the 20-goal plateau for the first time in his tenure with the Golden Knights. He appeared in 70 games and posted 23 goals and 28 assists for 51 points. His lines routinely got out-attempted, but they did not get out-chanced. His 11.8 shooting percentage was the highest on the Golden Knights last year, and his even-strength goals rate put him in the 85^th percentile of NHL forwards. With regards to pure scoring chance creation, Barbashev was in the 87^th percentile of NHL forwards, a testament to his ability to create in a variety of fashions. Barbashev’s skill set uniquely blends versatility, an underrated suite of shooting skills, and physicality. He’s known for his quick, accurate release from the slot and his vision to thread creative passes. He also complements this with an in-your-face approach, consistently pushing play in the dirty areas of the ice. With three years left on his five-year, $25 million contract ($5M AAV), Barbashev enters the 2025-26 season as a reliable middle-six driver with a high level of playoff acumen. Expect him to continue thriving in all situations, especially in key moments, and push again for 50+ points. While his defensive returns were down last year, his blend of creativity, physicality, and finishing will make him an indispensable connector between Vegas’s stars and depth forwards.

Pavel Dorofeyev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	34	25	59	0.72

Pavel Dorofeyev had an underrated two-way performance in 2024-25 that was the definition of a breakout season. The 24-year-old played a full 82-game slate for Vegas, delivering 35 goals and 17 assists for 52 points; setting personal highs in every category and breaking the 30-goal plateau for the first time. His even-strength goal totals put him in the 91^st percentile of NHL forwards, and his defensive Wins Above Replacement put him in the 92^nd percentile of NHL forwards, a testament to his value at both ends of the ice. Dorofeyev isn’t an elite skater or passer, but he’s an extremely hard worker who does a lot of thankless roles on the ice, and his high IQ allows him to be economical in his attack. Dorofeyev features a quick, deceptive release and keen net‑front awareness. He thrives in traffic and uses deft stick positioning to redirect pucks and capitalize on rebounds. He hunts high-danger areas and makes himself available for prime scoring chances. In 2025-26, he will be coming into the final year of a two-year deal ($1.835 AAV). Expect him to maintain his top nine role with continued power-play involvement. Another 30–35 goal, 55+ point season is well within reach, mainly if he builds on the consistency shown this year. His scoring punch, two-way commitment, and strong work ethic make him a rising commodity in Vegas’s high-octane mix.

William Karlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	15	31	46	0.66

No matter how you slice it, it was a down year for Karlsson marred by injuries and finishing results that put him in the 11^th percentile of NHL forwards. Expectations were high coming off the back of a 30 + 30 season, but Karlsson finished the year posting nine goals and 20 assists for 29 points in 53 games. Karlsson seemed to get bit by the regression bug as his shots at even-strength were in the 83^rd percentile of NHL forwards and his shots off of the rush were in the 80^th percentile of NHL forwards. Additionally, if you discount Brandon Saad’s 29-game sample, Karlsson had the highest puck-possession share of any Golden Knight forward. Karlsson’s strengths lie in his all-situations ability as a forward. He brings intelligent puck retrieval, disciplined positioning, and a mature north-south game that helps control pace and matchups. As a longtime alternate captain and core member since the team's inception, Karlsson’s 396 career points are second in franchise history, and he’s one of the team’s most durable players in terms of games played. Entering his age-33 season with a cap hit of $5.9 million with two years remaining, it’s easy to see a rebound season for Karlsson next year. Expect another 55-60 point campaign if health allows. Karlsson’s leadership and dependability remain invaluable to the Golden Knights’ hope for another Stanley Cup.

Reilly Smith

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	24	36	0.47

In March of 2025, one of the most predictable trades in the history of the league occurred, with Reilly Smith returning to Las Vegas in a trade that put him back where he’d won a Stanley Cup with the Golden Knights in 2022-23. It just so happens that 2022-23 was the last time Smith truly looked like himself, and transient visits through Pittsburgh and New York yielded frustrating results for a player who appeared to lack a defined role in those cities. Smith played 21 games for the Golden Knights, contributing three goals and eight assists for 11 points, adding 48 total hits, a testament to how reinvigorated he seemed to be back in Vegas. Smith is best known for his strong puck retrieval work, subtle off-puck movement, and knack for clutch scoring. He is effective in keeping pace with top-quality opponents and utilizing the boards to sustain offensive zone pressure. Now signed to a one-year, $2.0 million deal and set to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, Smith is expected to slot into a top nine role that capitalizes on two-way play. If he can rediscover his finishing and get back into a forechecking groove, a 12–15 goals campaign with 30–35 points is well within reach. His apparent desire to be in Vegas and familiarity with the system make him a reliable depth asset.

Brandon Saad

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	15	16	31	0.41

In January 2025, the St. Louis Blues and Brandon Saad mutually agreed to terminate the remaining years of his contract, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent and find a new home. Las Vegas ended up being that home, and the Golden Knights immediately got Saad back to a much more familiar version of himself. In 72 total games between both clubs, he posted 13 goals and 17 assists for 30 points, including six goals and eight assists in 29 games with Vegas. Granted it is a small sample size, but Saad led the Golden Knights forward group in both puck-possession share and expected-goal share down the stretch run and into the playoffs. Deployed primarily alongside Ivan Barbashev and William Karlsson, Saad provided veteran poise, secondary scoring, and a dependable net-front presence. His puck protection and ability to find soft spots in coverage allowed him to contribute offensively without sacrificing defensive responsibility. Now on a one-year extension, Saad is expected to continue in a middle six scoring role with special-teams utility. If he can stay healthy, a 15–20 goal, 30–35-point season is reasonable to expect. His ability to slide up or down the lineup, combined with his playoff experience, gives Vegas flexibility as they look to maintain their offensive depth for another postseason run.

DEFENCE

Shea Theodore

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	11	53	64	0.85

Shea Theodore had a monstrous 2024-25 season. His 57 points (7 G, 50 A) across 67 games shattered both individual records and franchise records for defencemen. He was the ultimate conduit, safely retrieving and exiting the puck to the forwards and contributing from the blue line with both shots and scoring chances. His ability to successfully retrieve pucks from the defensive zone was in the 97^th percentile of NHL defencemen. His ability to prevent zone entries across his blue line was in the 98^th percentile of NHL defencemen. Theodore has massive impacts in all three zones and can be deployed in big minutes with no limitation. An elite power-play quarterback, Theodore combines crisp, powerful skating with safe passing and high hockey IQ. His vision and poise allow him to control the tempo, transition effectively, and generate offence while under duress. Theodore’s defensive ability is also sound and while he isn’t physical, his mobility and stickwork make him difficult to beat. Coming into the second season of a seven-year deal ($7.425 million AAV), Theodore enters his age-30 season as an anchor of Vegas’s top pairing and primary power-play focal point. Barring injury, another 55–60 point campaign is well within reach, bolstered by his leadership and ever-rising offensive ceiling. Theodore remains one of the NHL’s most impactful two-way defencemen and a central pillar of the Golden Knights identity as a team.

Noah Hanifin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	8	28	36	0.44

In the 2024–25 season, Hanifin delivered one of his most productive campaigns of his career, logging 10 goals and 29 assists for 39 points across 80 games while averaging over 21 minutes per night. He led all Vegas defencemen in puck-possession share at over 52 percent. His offensive Wins Above Replacement at even-strength ranked in the 96^th percentile of NHL defencemen. He registered in the 99^th percentile of NHL defencemen in terms of his ability to contribute to rush offensive attacks. There are times when it almost seems like Hanifin is too good for a second pairing, and he dominates that deployment as a result. His ability to transition play quickly, manage possession, and deliver crisp, accurate passes under pressure makes him a trusted force in transition. Hanifin was dominant from the neutral zone and ranked in the 99^th percentile of league defencemen concerning passes from the neutral zone that led to a shot-attempt. Playing on an eight-year contract with a $7.35M cap hit, Hanifin is still in his prime as Vegas’s foundation to the second pairing and a key contributor on the power-play. Another 35–45 point season is well within reach if he maintains his usage and continues improving his offensive output. His two-way stability will be central to Vegas’s aspirations for a deep postseason run.

Brayden McNabb

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	20	24	0.29

Brayden McNabb continued his effective style of stay-at-home defence in 2024-25, finishing the year having played all 82 games despite his physical style of play. He registered five goals and 15 assists for 20 points and had the second highest plus/minus of any player in the league with a remarkable +42 on the year. McNabb’s defensive Wins Above Replacement at even-strength was in the 96^th percentile of NHL defencemen, a testament to his strong gap control and protection over his blue line. McNabb’s focus is on hitting, keeping his zone clean, and contributing with shots when he can once the puck is in the offensive zone. Despite his defensive nature, he finished the year in the 80^th percentile for even-strength scoring chance creation among defencemen, indicative of his comfort level with the puck in the offensive zone. McNabb barely attempted to exit the zone with possession last year and generally leaves that up to his mobile partner. His game revolves around suppressing traffic, blocking passing lanes, and providing a stabilizing presence that shifts momentum through defensive plays and positional discipline. McNabb enters his age-34 season on a contract running through 2027-28 firmly embedded in Vegas’s top-pairing rotations. Expect another 18–22 point performance while he continues to log heavy minutes on the penalty kill and key defensive situations.

Zach Whitecloud

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	4	14	18	0.24

Zach Whitecloud played the stay-at-home role for Noah Hanifin last year, producing solid results as a defensive-minded defenceman who allows Hanifin to roam and do his best work in that space. He appeared in 74 games and compiled four goals and nine assists for 13 points, but more importantly to his role, also had 117 hits and 103 blocked shots. There is no better testament to Whitecloud’s defensive play than the fact that he was in the 99^th percentile of NHL defenders regarding his ability to shut down possession-based zone entries from the opposition. Physicality was a big part of that gap control as his total hits put him in the 86^th percentile of NHL defenders. Another Vegas defender that isn’t a stranger to the puck, Whitecloud was in the 87^th percentile of NHL defenders regarding pure scoring chances. Whitecloud thrives on physicality, positioning, and board battles. He’s counted on to provide sturdy, error-free minutes, and he sacrifices creative flair for defensive reliability. His ability to neutralize opponents in his defensive zone and disrupt play before danger materializes gives his coaches clear-cut confidence about his deployment. Entering his age‑29 season with a six-year contract carrying a $2.75M cap hit that runs through 2027–28, Whitecloud remains a key fixture in Vegas’s second defensive pairing. Expect similar usage in penalty-kill situations and defensive zone duties, with a target of 15–18 points.

Goal

Adin Hill

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
54	33	14	4	5	0.909	2.68

The Vegas Golden Knights looked like the team to beat in the Pacific Division, who looked particularly vulnerable last season. And sure enough, they swept the board during the regular season; they ran the tables on the rest of the division, faring worse than only the Winnipeg Jets and the Washington Capitals over the 82-game stretch. But where Adin Hill established himself as one of the league's most proficient regular season starters, he fell back into old habits during the postseason en route to an early-ish exit; now, he'll return without Ilya Samsonov as his number two, hoping to replicate that success with a much less experienced Akira Schmid as his backup and a rapidly strengthening Pacific Division breathing down Vegas' neck.

As always, Hill looks like a study in contrast when he's churning out starts; his good games boast speedy reflexes and fantastic agility, but his bad games snowball on themselves and watch him do too much in a desperate attempt to regain control of the scoreboard. Schmid plays a more level headed game overall, but has historically lacked some of that spark that kept NHL coaches coming back for more even during Hill's weaker seasons; it will be interesting to see how the duo manages to hold court out west, especially with teams like Los Angeles back at the top and Anaheim, Calgary, and San Jose all boasting some of the league's most promising young prospects in net.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – PLAYOFF EDITION – Less obvious picks that will win your playoff pool

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Apr 2025 14:56:32 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the focus will be on the upcoming playoffs. Here are some players to target for playoff pools and it should go without saying that the focus will be on less obvious players because you don’t need me to tell you that Nathan MacKinnon or Cale Makar would be a good pick.

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 02: Florida Panthers Center Sam Bennett (9) dumps the puck in during the NHL regular season game between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 2, 2025, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

#1 It is quite common for NHL players to score at a lower rate in the playoffs, and it is only natural – they are only playing against the top half of the league in the postseason. Florida’s Sam Bennett, however, is built differently. Since 2019-2020, Bennett has scored 220 points (107 G, 113 A) in 379 regular-season games, which is a rate of .581 points per game. In the playoffs, since 2019-2020, Bennett has 45 points (19 G, 26 A) in 64 games, a rate of .703 points per game. He rose to the occasion during the 4 Nations Face-Off and it’s reached the point where it is fair to expect Bennett to elevate his game when the games matter more.

#2 The Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Yanni Gourde from the Seattle Kraken at the trade deadline, bringing the feisty forward back to Tampa Bay, where he won two Stanley Cups with the Lightning. In his past three playoff appearances, Gourde has produced 34 points (17 G, 17 A) in 62 games. Even more importantly, he has been moved to left wing on Tampa Bay’s top line, skating alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov and he finished the regular season with six points (1 G, 5 A) in the last eight games.

#3 It is not like Adrian Kempe is an unknown offensive quantity, having scored 139 goals across the past four seasons, but the Los Angeles Kings have routinely been bounced from the playoffs in the first round by the Edmonton Oilers and that is despite Kempe putting up 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 18 games over his last three playoff seasons. Skating on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Andrei Kuzmenko, Kempe is likely to offer good value in this postseason, especially if this is the year that the Kings find a way to get past the Oilers.

#4 Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis has recorded back-to-back seasons with 67 points, including more than 30 goals in both seasons. He has also been a consistently productive player in the postseason, producing 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 40 playoff games. He also had a strong finish to this regular season, putting up 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 62 shots on goal in his last 18 games.

#5 Second year Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies is in a prime spot to generate offense, skating on the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and he finished the regular season with a flourish, tallying 13 points (4 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in his last 12 games. At 6-foot-3, 227 pounds, Knies has the size to handle the more physical play which tends to show up in the playoffs and with an elite setup man like Marner and a finisher like Matthews, there are plenty of points to be found while skating on their wing.

#6 The Montreal Canadiens are naturally underdogs in their first round series against the top-seeded Washington Capitals, but in deep playoff pools, sometimes the play is to take a top player for a lower-seeded team. Consider Habs captain Nick Suzuki, who had 15 points (8 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal in his last 10 games, on his way to a career-high 89 points (30 G, 59 A) this season. In deeper pools, there comes a time where fantasy managers need to decide whether to take the sixth-best forward on the favored team or the best forward on an underdog and if the pool is relatively large, hitting on the right underdogs can have a huge effect.

#7 Vegas Golden Knights left winger Ivan Barbashev has been a reliable offensive performer since arriving in Vegas, producing 112 points (48 G, 64 A) in 175 games for the Golden Knights, but he was also an integral part of their Stanley Cup winning team in 2023, contributing 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in 23 games. Barbashev plays a hard game, with plenty of hitting, and is not shy about getting to the front of the net, so he is a quality support scoring option for Vegas.

#8 With the Winnipeg Jets dealing with injuries on the wing, including to Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabe Vilardi, opportunity has knocked loudly for Alex Iafallo, who has often been an over-qualified fourth liner this season. In his last 10 games of the regular season, Iafallo contributed seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal, while playing frequently with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on the Jets’ top line.

#9 Drafted 12th overall in last summer’s draft by the Minnesota Wild, defenseman Zeev Buium returned to the University of Denver for his sophomore season and accrued 48 points (13 G, 35 A) in 41 games. He is an intriguing deep league sleeper for playoff pools, as the skilled blueliner appears to be on his way to not only playing for the Wild in the playoffs but potentially quarterbacking the team’s top power play unit. Minnesota has an uphill fight, taking on Vegas in the first round, but the Wild were a much stronger team with Kirill Kaprizov in the lineup this season and Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek both returned from injuries late in the season. If that improves the Wild’s chances of pulling off an upset, it also improves the chances of Buium having a productive postseason.

#10 Since St. Louis Blues left winger Dylan Holloway remains week-to-week with a lower-body injury, it has been important for the Blues to fill his spot in the lineup. While it was likely going to happen anyway, the Blues inked 2022 first-round pick Jimmy Snuggerud, who had 51 points (24 G, 27 A) in 40 games during his junior season at the University of Minnesota. Since joining the Blues, Snuggerud has chipped in four points (1 G, 3 A) with 10 shots on goal in seven games. He finished the regular season on a line with Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou, a quality spot for him to keep contributing offensively.

#11 Los Angeles Kings centre Quinton Byfield had some ups and downs during the season, but he really seemed to find his footing later in the season. In his last 32 games, Byfield had 31 points (12 G, 19 A) with 64 shots on goal. His most common linemate this season has been Kevin Fiala and they have been a dominant duo during five-on-five play, controlling 63.1 percent of shot attempts and 61.0 percent of expected goals.

#12 Ottawa Senators winger David Perron has endured a difficult regular season, managing just 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 43 games, and he is 36 so maybe age is just catching up to him, but don’t ignore his playoff track record. In his past four playoff appearances, Perron has played a total of 62 games, recording 47 points (21 G, 26 A). He is past his peak years, obviously, but scored seven goals in a 13-game stretch in March, and plays a physical, agitating style that tends to translate well in the postseason.

#13 Just a couple of seasons ago, in 2022-2023, Cam Fowler recorded a career-high 48 points (10 G, 38 A) in 82 games for the Anaheim Ducks, the team that he had spent his entire career with until earlier this season when he was traded to the St. Louis Blues. Since joining the Blues, Fowler has produced 36 points (9 G, 27 A) in just 51 games. Eight of those 36 points were on the power play, so there might be even more upside there, as Fowler is now on St. Louis’ first power play unit and if the Blues are going to upset the Jets in the first round, they will likely need Fowler to continue at this level.

#14 Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli set career highs with 27 goals and 59 points this season and he is in a good spot for that production to continue, as Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel are his wingers at even strength. Cirelli also has had playoff success. In his past four playoff appearances, Cirelli scored 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 57 games. He is likely to play plenty in a matchup role, because of his defensive acumen, but Cirelli can deliver offensively, too.

#15 The 2024-2025 season has been thoroughly unimpressive for Maple Leafs winger Max Domi, who finished with 33 points (8 G, 25 A) in 74 games, his lowest single-season point total aside from the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season. Nevertheless, Domi has been productive in the postseason, accumulating 23 points (7 G, 16 A) in 40 games across his past three playoff appearances, all with different teams (Carolina, Dallas, and Toronto). He is skating on Toronto’s second line, with John Tavares and William Nylander, so there should be scoring opportunities for Domi in this year’s playoffs, too.

#16 Carolina Hurricanes winger Taylor Hall has bounced around a lot and battled injuries in recent seasons and was mostly overlooked when the Hurricanes acquired him at the same time that they traded for Mikko Rantanen earlier in the season. However, once the Hurricanes traded Rantanen to Dallas, more responsibility was waiting for Hall, and he has responded favorably. In 18 games since the trade deadline, Hall contributed 15 points (8 G, 7 A) with 38 shots on goal. Hall also has 29 points (14 G, 15 A) in 39 career playoff games, so he has tended to show up in the postseason, even if it ends up being in small samples.

#17 At 35-years-old, Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn fills more of a supporting role on the team. He finished with 49 points (16 G, 33 A) in 80 games, the third time in his career that he played more than 70 games and finished with fewer than 50 points. Benn finished the regular season with no goals and nine assists in his last 17 games. It can’t be ignored, though, that Benn has been a beast in the playoffs. He has reached double-digit point totals in five separate playoff runs and in the past two seasons, he has put up 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 36 playoff games. He finished the regular season on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen, which should give Benn quality chances to contribute offensively, though a late-season injury to Jason Robertson could cause the Stars to shuffle those lines.

#18 The Montreal Canadiens plugged winger Ivan Demidov into their lineup for the last two regular season games and Demidov responded with a goal and an assist in his first period of NHL action. Two games is obviously a super small sample size, but Demidov’s five-on-five shot rate (11.62 per 60 minutes) and point rate (5.81 per 60) were better than any other Habs skaters in those two games. His individual expected goals rate (1.29 per 60) ranked second behind Alex Newhook (1.85 ixG/60). Demidov is playing on a line with Newhook and Patrik Laine, while also getting second-unit power play time and if the Habs are going to pull off an upset against Washington, they might just need their precocious rookie to make a difference.

#19 Goaltenders with the best save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off (minimum 10 starts): Andrei Vasilevskiy (.927), Darcy Kuemper (.926), Connor Hellebuyck (.924), Scott Wedgewood (.924), Anthony Stolarz (.922), Adin Hill (.920), Sergei Bobrovsky (.914), Sam Montembeault (.912), Filip Gustavsson (.911), and Jordan Binnington (.910). That could be encouraging for any of the teams that employ those netminders, but Vasilevskiy’s Lightning and Kuemper’s Kings could use the lift that comes with strong goaltending.

#20 Goaltenders with the worst save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off (minimum 10 starts), among playoff goaltenders: Jacob Markstrom (.869), Pyotr Kochetkov (.879), Logan Thompson (.880), Stuart Skinner (.883), Charlie Lindgren (.887), Frederik Andersen (.890), Calvin Pickard (.899), and Mackenzie Blackwood (.899). Just as the Lightning and Kings could be more hopeful with strong goaltending, the Hurricanes, Capitals, Oilers, and Avalanche might be a bit more wary based on the goaltending they have received late in the regular season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Examining offseason moves – Oilers thriving ex-RFA’s versus UFA signings – Teams with favourable schedules

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 04 Jan 2025 16:15:29 +0000

DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 14: St Louis Blue defenseman Philip Broberg skates with the puck down the ice during an NHL game between the St Louis Blues and the Dallas Stars on December 14, 2024, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire)

Going into 2024-25, it looked like the Oilers had a great summer. Sure, they lost restricted free agents Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to St. Louis, but only because the Blues overpaid for them. Meanwhile, Edmonton was crafty, snagging Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson at bargain bin prices, while also re-signing Adam Henrique to a reasonable contract. The goaltending was still in a risky state given the reliance on the streaky Stuart Skinner and the defense looked thin, but up front, Edmonton seemed deeper than it had ever been in the Connor McDavid-era.

Reality has played out differently. Edmonton has a 23-12-3 record, so they don’t have much to complain about on that front. However, Skinner hasn’t been the bargain that they thought. Instead, the six-time 30-plus goal scorer has just six markers and 13 points through 37 appearances. He’s been so underwhelming that he’s been largely relegated to the fourth line and was even a healthy scratch Sunday.

Arvidsson hasn’t been much help either. Granted, injuries have been part of the issue, but even when healthy, he’s underwhelmed with four goals and nine points through 23 outings. Meanwhile, Henrique has three goals and 10 points in 38 games after finishing the 2023-24 regular season with 51 points.

With the benefit of hindsight, Edmonton should have prioritized its restricted free agents. Broberg has three goals and 14 points in 27 outings while managing a top four role. Holloway has looked even better, collecting 14 goals and 27 points in 40 appearances.

As for Skinner and Arvidsson being bargains while Broberg and Holloway were overpaid, the former duo costs $7 million combined for 2024-25 while the latter comes in at roughly $6.9. Oops.

To be fair, this isn’t what many would have predicted going into the campaign, and there’s still time for Skinner and Arvidsson to make their marks, especially come the playoffs. However, it does highlight how plans can go awry, and with nearly half the campaign now in the books, this seems like a good time to take stock of how teams did in the offseason.

That’ll be the theme of this week’s article: For every team I highlight below, I’m going focus on the players who were brought in over the summer and reevaluate whether it’s worked out.

Carolina Hurricanes (Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TOR, Fri vs VAN, Sun vs ANA)

Carolina has been middling recently, posting a 7-8-1 record over its past 16 games, though the Hurricanes are still 23-13-2 overall thanks to their commanding start. Next week is packed for Carolina and primarily at home, though the opponents will be difficult. The Hurricanes will play in Tampa Bay on Tuesday before hosting Toronto, Vancouver and Anaheim on Thursday, Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Even after factoring in Carolina’s recent underwhelming play, the Hurricanes are still well on their way to making the playoffs for the seventh straight campaign despite significant turnover. They lost two top-four defensemen -- Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce -- and top-six forward Teuvo Teravainen. Jake Guentzel also parted ways with Carolina, but he was a midseason rental, so he was less ingrained into the team.

Carolina led the league in xGA/60 in 2023-24 (2.65), but the team has dipped to 11th (2.90) this year. That’s not bad, but it does suggest that the losses of Skjei and Pesce have been felt.

Carolina did ink Shayne Gostisbehere to a three-year, $9.6 million contract over the summer, but the 31-year-old defenseman was brought in as more of a power-play specialist than a two-way option. He has served well in that role, supplying six goals and 27 points through 35 appearances, but unfortunately, he’s out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.

Interestingly, Brent Burns appears to be staying on the second power-play unit despite Gostisbehere’s injury. Burns is hot with two goals and four points over his past four appearances, but he has just one point with the man advantage this year, and unless he moves up to the top power-play grouping, it’s hard to see him having a strong second half.

Ty Smith seems to have gotten the special-teams assignment instead of Burns. The 24-year-old has averaged just 14:02 of ice time in Carolina’s three games without Gostisbehere, but 4:05 per contest has come with the man advantage. Smith has a goal (provided on the power play) in those three appearances after supplying three goals and 10 points in 13 outings with AHL Chicago. He’s worth a short-term pickup.

Moving back to the Hurricanes’ summer acquisitions, Carolina also inked Jack Roslovic to a one-year, $2.8 million deal. He’s worked out well in Carolina, collecting 17 goals and 25 points through 38 outings, which puts the 27-year-old on track to surpass his career high of 45 points. I’m not confident he’ll get there, though. His 22.4 shooting percentage doesn’t look sustainable and his role with the team hasn’t been consistent, resulting in him averaging a modest 14:00, including 1:15 on the power play. It’s hard to trust him unless he starts getting bigger minutes consistently, so there’s a risk of him slowing meaningfully in the second half.

Detroit Red Wings (Tue vs OTT, Fri vs CHI, Sun vs SEA)

The Red Wings are showing some life under new bench boss Todd McLellan, winning each of their past three games. Still, they have a lot of ground to make up given their 16-18-4 record. Fortunately, their upcoming competition is favorable -- they'll spend next week at home, hosting Ottawa on Tuesday, Chicago on Friday and Seattle on Sunday.

Detroit lost Gostisbehere and veteran forward David Perron over the summer, which threatened to hurt the team’s scoring, but the Red Wings hoped to mitigate that by bringing in Vladimir Tarasenko on a two-year, $9.5 million contract. Tarasenko isn’t the same player he was when he provided over 30 goals on six occasions from 2014-15 through 2021-22, but he still figured to be a valuable middle-six option after providing 23 goals and 55 points over 76 outings between Ottawa and Florida in 2023-24.

It hasn’t worked out like that, though. Tarasenko has just four goals and 14 points through 37 appearances and isn’t giving Red Wings fans much hope that he’ll have a strong second half. The veteran has no goals and three assists across his past 14 games. While Detroit has won its last three games by scoring at least four goals in each contest, Tarasenko has managed a single shot on net over that stretch.

Detroit re-signed Patrick Kane to a one-year, $4 million deal over the summer. Initially, Kane’s story this season looked a lot like Tarasenko -- Kane had just three goals and 10 points over his first 24 appearances of 2024-25 -- but he’s hit his stride, providing five goals and nine points across his past nine outings.

Detroit ranks 25th in goals per game with 2.68, which is a collapse compared to the Red Wings’ 3.35 last campaign. That’s in large part due to a decline in secondary scoring. Detroit had eight players with at least 15 goals. Just five are scoring at a pace to reach that mark this campaign. If Tarasenko could get going, that would certainly help, but it would be wrong to put the blame solely on him when the team as a whole has declined that much.

Minnesota Wild (Tue vs STL, Thu vs COL, Sat @ SJS, Sun @VGK)

The Wild have won four of their past five games, bringing their record up to 24-11-4 this campaign. They’ll look to continue the good times next week, starting with a home game against the Blues on Tuesday. After that, the Wild will host Colorado on Thursday before hitting the road for contests in San Jose on Saturday and Vegas on Sunday.

In contrast to their dominance this season, the Wild missed the playoffs in 2023-24 with a 39-34-9 record, so you’d think they had a successful summer, but this is largely the same team that fell short last campaign. The big difference has been Filip Gustavsson. He struggled in 2023-24 with a 20-18-4 record, 3.06 GAA and .899 save percentage but has rebounded this time, posting a 17-6-3 record, 2.28 GAA and .924 save percentage across 26 starts.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gustavsson continue his dominance through the second half of the campaign. While it’s in contrast to last season, he has demonstrated this level of success before -- he was 22-9-7 with a 2.10 GAA and a .931 save percentage in 39 outings in 2022-23 -- so this isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Marco Rossi has also taken a step up. The 23-year-old finished 2023-24 with 21 goals and 40 points and is well on his way to shattering those totals this season, collecting 15 goals and 33 points through 39 outings so far. For the second straight campaign, Rossi has the distinction of getting plenty of ice time with Kirill Kaprizov, but the duo seems to be meshing better this year. Kaprizov showed up on the scoresheet for 16 of Rossi’s 40 points last season but has already featured on 21 of Rossi’s 33 points in 2024-25.

While Minnesota didn’t make any significant additions last summer, it is worth noting that the Wild signed Brock Faber to an eight-year, $68 million contract extension back in July. Faber was one of the few positives for the Wild in 2023-24, supplying eight goals, 47 points, 65 hits and 150 blocks in 82 appearances as a rookie. Locking him up long-term was a bit of a risk given his small sample size, but it’s looking like it was a great call. He has five goals, 20 points, 15 hits and 51 blocks through 39 outings in 2024-25.

Faber didn’t look ideal analytically last campaign with a relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of minus-2.8/minus-3.5, which suggests that the team performed worse from a puck possession perspective when he was on the ice, but the 22-year-old has shown some growth in that regard as a sophomore, posting a minus-1.7/minus-2.9 relative 5v5 CF%/FF%.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ DET, Thu @ BUF, Sat @ PIT, Sun vs DAL)

Minnesota is enjoying a great campaign after a rough one, but the Senators are still floundering in mediocrity. Ottawa finished 37-41-4 in 2023-24, missing the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. The Senators are a more respectable, but still not great 19-17-2 this year.

Ottawa does have a shot at ending its postseason drought, but every point will be critical. Next week, the Senators will play in Detroit on Tuesday, host the Sabres on Thursday, play in Pittsburgh on Saturday and then head back home to face the Stars on Sunday.

There was some reason for cautious optimism going into this campaign. Joonas Korpisalo had been a big problem for the Senators in 2023-24, posting a 21-26-4 record, 3.27 GAA and .890 save percentage in 55 outings while finishing minus-16.1 in terms of goals saved above expected. To exchange him with Linus Ullmark in a trade with Boston over the summer seemed like a huge win, and it has been.

Ullmark did initially struggle in Ottawa and is presently dealing with a back injury, but he’s still been strong overall with a 12-7-2 record, 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage across 23 games with the Senators. Unfortunately, Ottawa’s holdover goaltender, Anton Forsberg, has continued to struggle with a 3.04 GAA and an .885 save percentage in 12 outings, so Ottawa has to hope that Ullmark returns soon.

Even when he is playing, though, Ottawa is still limited by its offense, ranking 20th in goals per game with 2.95. Trading offensive defenseman Jakob Chychrun to Washington didn’t help. The Senators did receive Nick Jensen in the trade, but Jensen is more of a defensive option, contributing two goals, 13 points, 37 hits and 44 blocks in 38 contests with Ottawa this campaign.

The Senators also attempted to boost its secondary scoring by inking David Perron to a two-year, $8 million contract. Perron had recorded at least 36 points in each of his past eight campaigns, so he seemed like a reasonable bet, but the 36-year-old has been no help. Part of that is due to injuries, but even in the nine games he’s logged with Ottawa, Perron has no points.

To make matters worse, Claude Giroux is showing his age, collecting nine goals and 24 points through 38 appearances in 2024-25, putting the 36-year-old on pace to finish well below his totals of 79 and 64 points in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively.

If Ottawa is to miss the playoffs this year, a lack of scoring will likely be the reason.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Tue vs CBJ, Thu vs EDM, Sat vs OTT, Sun vs TBL)

Pittsburgh was aggressive in the summer of 2023, bringing offensive defenseman Erik Karlsson into the fold, but that proved to be not enough for the 2023-24 Penguins, who missed the playoffs due to a 38-32-12 record. The Penguins didn’t make as big a splash this summer, and the results remain mixed with the Penguins sitting at 17-17-6. They are in the mix for a playoff spot, so their upcoming homestand will be important -- Pittsburgh will host Columbus on Tuesday, Edmonton on Thursday, Ottawa on Saturday and Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Goaltending was a weakness for Pittsburgh in 2023-24, but the Penguins didn’t change its duo, so Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry are paired together for the second straight campaign. The results have been bad, Pittsburgh ranks last in goals allowed per game (3.63), though the defense in front of them is at least partially to blame given the team’s xGA/60 of 3.34, which ranks 29th in the NHL.

At least Rickard Rakell is having a good year. He dropped from 60 points in 2022-23 to just 37 last year, but he’s bounced back to 18 goals and 32 points through 40 appearances this campaign. One factor in that is likely the loss of Jake Guentzel, who the Penguins traded during 2023-24 to avoid potentially losing for nothing as an unrestricted free agent. With Guentzel gone, Rakell has taken his old spot on the top line alongside Sidney Crosby, and that seems to have benefited Rakell quite a bit.

Of course, that’s only because Crosby is defying Father Time with 11 goals and 42 points through 40 games at the age of 37. Malkin, 38, is showing his age more, but he’s still more than holding his own with eight goals and 32 points across 40 outings.

Without much cap space, the Penguins did attempt to supplement its offense on a budget by signing Anthony Beauvillier (one-year, $1.25 million) and Blake Lizotte (two-year, $3.7 million), which has worked out okay. Beauvillier has nine goals and 12 points through 39 appearances while Lizotte has eight goals and 12 points in 24 outings. They add a bit of skill to the bottom six, which is not nothing, but it’s not a lot.

Seattle Kraken (Mon vs NJD, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ BUF, Sun @DET)

Seattle has been a mixed bag this campaign with a 17-19-3 record, but the Kraken have a somewhat favorable schedule next week. They’ll start by hosting the Devils and then go on the road to play in Columbus on Thursday, in Buffalo on Saturday and in Detroit on Sunday. New Jersey is the only adversary in that batch currently occupying a playoff position.

Although Seattle is still a fairly new franchise, there was some significant turnover during the summer. The biggest change came behind the bench rather than on the ice: Dave Hakstol was replaced by Dan Bylsma as the new bench boss. Under Bylsma, Seattle’s scoring has ticked up somewhat, going from 2.61 goals per game in 2023-24 to 2.90 this campaign, but that’s been undermined by the goals allowed per game increasing to 3.10 compared to 2.83 last year.

Jaden Schwartz has been one of the bigger winners under Bylsma. After collecting 13 goals and 30 points in 62 appearances while averaging 16:22 of ice time last season, Schwartz already has 12 goals and 25 points in 39 games in 2024-25, and he’s seen his playing time tick up to 17:41.

Bylsma has also been making good use of newcomer Chandler Stephenson. Like the coach, Stephenson was an offseason addition, signing a seven-year, $43.75 million deal. That’s a significant commitment to the 30-year-old, but so far, he’s fulfilled his top six duties about as well as expected, supplying four goals and 24 points through 38 appearances. He also has 12 power-play assists, quadrupling that of any other Seattle player.

Brandon Montour was Seattle’s other major free-agent splash, inking a seven-year contract worth one dollar shy of $50 million. Montour missed out on that buck because he was limited to 33 points in 66 regular-season outings with Florida in 2023-24 after setting a career high with 73 points in 2022-23, but he’s done well in his new environment, supplying eight goals and 22 points across 38 outings.

He has gone through something of a cold patch recently with three points (one goal) over his last 10 contests, but it’s not to the point yet where I’m too worried. Even in his amazing 2022-23 campaign, you can find an example of a quiet stretch from Feb. 9-28 in which he had four assists in nine appearances. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that this season will parallel 2022-23, merely stating that slower stretches happen, and the 30-year-old should start picking up the pace again before too long.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs NYR, Sun vs MIN)

While Seattle hasn’t had much playoff success yet, the NHL’s other young franchise, Vegas, has already made the playoffs six times and won the Cup in 2023. The Golden Knights had a down year in 2023-24, posting a 45-29-8 record followed by a first-round exit, but they’re back in business this campaign at 26-9-3. The Golden Knights will start next week with a road match against the rebuilding Sharks before hosting two struggling teams in the Islanders on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday. Finally, Vegas will be up against a tough contender when they play at home against Minnesota on Sunday.

The Golden Knights more than any other franchise in the NHL is known for making bold trades and constantly having to maneuver to stay under the salary cap. The ceiling forced the Golden Knights to watch forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson walk as free agents over the summer. Vegas also traded Logan Thompson to Washington and Paul Cotter to New Jersey.

With those losses, how have the Golden Knights done so well? For starters, Vegas has an economical replacement for Thompson in Ilya Samsonov, who inked a one-year, $1.8 million deal with the Golden Knights. The 27-year-old Samsonov has been a nice backup in Vegas, providing a 10-3-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .907 save percentage in 14 outings. To some extent, he’s even outperformed starter Adin Hill, who is 16-6-2 with a 2.65 GAA and a .902 save percentage through 24 appearances.

You might look at those solid GAAs and middling save percentages and conclude that Vegas’ secret sauce is the defense in front of its netminders, but that’s not entirely the case. In terms of shots allowed per game, Vegas has been relatively good, ranking 12th with 27.9, but the team is also tied for 21st in xGA/60 (3.10) because the Golden Knights tend to give up a ton of high-danger shots, tying for eighth in that category with 142.

As a result, Vegas’ goaltenders don’t necessarily need to work a ton, but they do need to be at the top of their game, and they’ve done just that. Hill has a goals saved above expected of 8.4 and Samsonov is at 6.1, putting them in 14th and 18th, respectively, among all goaltenders, per Moneypuck.

Vegas has also received good value out of Tanner Pearson and Victor Olofsson, who each inked one-year contracts and combine for less than $2 million in cap space. Pearson has eight goals and 16 points through 38 outings, providing some nice scoring depth in a bottom-six capacity. Meanwhile, Olofsson did miss 20 straight games from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 because of a lower-body injury, but he’s been a great middle-six option when healthy, contributing eight goals and 13 points through 18 appearances.

Health in general has really been the key, though. In 2023-24, Vegas finished with just three players who logged the full 82 games while Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo were among those who endured significant absences. Vegas hasn’t been the poster child for health this year, but the situation hasn’t been nearly as bad. That’s helped Eichel especially, who leads the team with 50 points (10 goals) through 38 appearances in 2024-25.

Vegas also made midseason trades during 2023-24 that are paying off now. This is the team’s first full season with defenseman Noah Hanifin, who has six goals and 20 points in 38 outings while serving in a top-four capacity, and forward Tomas Hertl, who has 10 goals and 25 points in 38 games. The result is Vegas is a deep team both up front and on the blue line, even after watching some notable players go over the summer.

Washington Capitals (Mon @ BUF, Wed vs VAN, Fri vs MTL, Sat @ NSH)

The Capitals barely made the playoffs in 2023-24, finishing the regular season with a 40-31-11 record before being swept in the first round. They look very different this year, though, as demonstrated by their 25-10-3 record. Washington will start next week by playing in Buffalo on Monday before returning home to host the Canucks on Wednesday and the Canadiens on Friday. They’ll wrap things up with a game in Nashville on Saturday.

While some of the teams above have made major strides this campaign despite minimal changes over the summer, that doesn’t describe the Capitals. Washington was aggressive in addition pieces, acquiring Jakob Chychrun from Ottawa, Pierre-Luc Dubois from LA and Logan Thompson from Vegas in trades. Washington also made a big splash by signing Matt Roy to a six-year, $34.5 million contract.

Those additions have paid off superbly for Washington. Darcy Kuemper left plenty to be desired with the Capitals last season, posting a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 starts, but Washington was able to part with him in the Dubois trade, and Thompson has been so much better, recording a 15-2-2 record, 2.30 GAA and .918 save percentage across 19 appearances this season. That upgrade in goaltending has been a critical factor in Washington’s success, especially because it has gone a long way toward counteracting the decline of Charlie Lindgren, who has a 10-8-1 record, 2.70 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 outings in 2024-25, down from 25-16-7 with a 2.67 GAA and .911 save percentage in 50 appearances last year.

The Capitals were able to snag Dubois from LA for the low cost of Kuemper because the 26-year-old Dubois comes with an $8.5 million cap hit through 2030-31, but he had an underwhelming 16 goals, 40 points and 70 PIM in 82 regular-season outings with the Kings last season. LA had a logjam up the middle, though, contributing to Dubois averaging just 15:42 in 2024-25. By contrast, Washington had a clear second-line opening for him, which he has settled into nicely, providing five goals, 29 points and 22 PIM in 38 games. You’d still like more from a player with his contract, but there’s no question that he’s added to the team’s scoring depth.

If Dubois has worked out with an asterisk because of his price point, then Chychrun has been a clearer win. He is on the final campaign of his contract, but his $4.6 million cap hit is superb value for the 26-year-old defenseman, who has 11 goals and 25 points this campaign. Washington already had John Carlson has a high-end offensive option on the blue line, and now Chychrun is providing Washington with another big weapon to either send out with Carlson or spread out across the top two pairings.

When it comes to the signings, Matt Roy was the major splash. The defenseman has a goal, eight points, 63 hits and 45 blocks in 28 appearances while averaging 19:24 of ice time. He’s never been a major offensive threat, but Washington already has that role well covered with Chychrun and Carlson. Roy is there to help in Washington’s end, which is why 55.4 percent of his 5v5 zone starts have been defensive.

All that has played a role in the Capitals’ success, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Alex Ovechkin’s role in all this. He has an incredible 18 goals and 28 points in 22 appearances. That said, Washington was still a strong 10-5-1 during the 16-game absence of Ovechkin from Nov. 21-Dec. 23 due to a fractured fibula, so clearly this team is more than just the byproduct of its superstar.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (November 11th to 18th, 2024) – Winnipeg and Florida dominate

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 18:45:55 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 10: Florida Panthers Right Wing Sam Reinhart (13) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators on October 10, 2024, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The Colorado Avalanche have problems, as I’ve discussed in previous articles, but going into Thursday’s action those issues hadn’t extended to their core players. In fact, defenseman Cale Makar opened the campaign with a 13-game scoring streak in which he provided five goals and 23 points, and after an injury scare, he was available for Thursday’s tilt against Winnipeg and ended up logging an impressive 25:16 of ice time.

Against every other team, Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, who took his own 13-game scoring streak into Thursday’s action, would have done some damage even if they hadn’t come away with the win. Winnipeg has been in a league of its own, though, especially with Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. The goaltender shrugged off the Avalanche’s 35 shots to earn his second consecutive shutout, bringing him up to a 10-1-0 record, 1.91 GAA and .932 save percentage through 11 starts.

Hellebuyck being an amazing goaltender is old news. There’s a reason why Winnipeg inked him to a seven-year, $59.5 million contract that began this season -- a contract that’s looking increasingly good, especially with the way the goaltender market is heading. However, the Jets under new bench boss Scott Arniel are giving him more defensive support than he’s accustomed to. The Jets have an xGA/60 of 2.49, per Moneypuck, the second-best in the league. By contrast, Winnipeg ranked 10th last year with a 2.93 xGA/60. That suggests the quality of the shots making their way to Hellebuyck has gotten significantly lower, making it easier for the netminder to do his job. That might also be why Winnipeg is also 3-0-0 on the nights that journeyman goaltender Eric Comrie has started instead.

Winnipeg’s dominance doesn’t end there, though. The Jets rank first in goals per game with 4.50, which is a feat they’ve accomplished in part through depth. Kyle Connor (nine goals, 19 points), Mark Scheifele (seven goals, 18 points) and Gabriel Vilardi (six goals, 12 points) can compromise an amazing top line, and that still leaves you with the luxury of putting Nikolaj Ehlers (eight goals, 17 points) on the second line and a red-hot Nino Niederreiter (seven goals, 12 points) on the third unit to exhaust the enemy’s defense. It is worth noting that Moneypuck ranks Winnipeg 21st in xG/60 with 2.99, so there’s an argument to be made that the Jets have enjoyed good puck luck, and they haven’t endured anything close to the same kind of injury issues that a team like Colorado has.

It's also worth remembering the cautionary tale of the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators, who started 13-1-0 but faltered after that, finishing 43-31-8 and being swept in the first round of the playoffs. That said, there isn’t a lot of sample size when it comes to 13-1-0 starts. Ottawa showed that even a start as hot as this doesn’t guarantee success, but that doesn’t mean a fall from grace is inevitable either. And sure, maybe the Jets’ offense won’t continue to perform at this level, but if the defense stays effective and Hellebuyck remains healthy, then Winnipeg won’t necessarily need that much goal production. This is a strong team, potentially far stronger than analysts rated the Jets to be going into the campaign, and they’ll certainly be one to watch going forward.

While some might still view the Jets as a team with something to prove even after starting 13-1-0, not many would question Florida’s 10-3-1 start. Back-to-back trips to the finals, including a Stanley Cup championship, affords you a great deal of faith. That’s not to say every player on the team receives that level of belief, though. Sam Reinhart is probably raising some eyebrows after scoring 11 goals and 22 points through 14 games. Sure, he had 57 goals and 94 points in 82 appearances in 2023-24, but his 24.5 shooting percentage was insanely high, so it must have been a fluke, right?

Those who read my articles from last year would know I pushed back against the assumption that his high shooting percentage was unsustainable.

More specifically, this is what I said about Reinhart back in January: “His shooting percentage of 27.5 is by far the highest of any player with at least 100 shots -- next is Brock Boeser at 23.3 -- and more than double his 2022-23 finish of 13.7. Digging a little deeper, Reinhart is selective with when he shoots, firing 40.4 percent in high-danger areas. By contrast, Nikita Kucherov has nearly the same number of goals (28) while firing nearly double the shots (amounting to a 15.4 shooting percentage), but just 18.1 percent of his shots are in high-danger locations, so by that measure, Reinhart’s higher shooting percentage makes some sense.”

This year tells a somewhat similar story. Of his 39 shots, 13 (33.3 percent) have been in high-danger areas while another 12 (30.8 percent) have been mid-range. By contrast, Nikita Kucherov, who has 11 goals on 54 shots has fired 12 (22.2 percent) in high-danger areas and 16 (29.6) at mid-range. In other words, while someone like Kucherov fires more shots than Reinhart, they end up with a similar number of high-quality shots, so there’s logic behind Reinhart’s high shooting percentage, making it less of a warning sign than it would be for some other players.

Carolina Hurricanes (Mon @ VGK, Wed @ UTA, Sat vs OTT, Sun vs STL)

The Hurricanes have done nearly as well as the Jets, posting a 10-2-0 record after Thursday’s 5-1 victory over Pittsburgh. Carolina will open the week with a challenging road match versus Vegas, but the schedule gets more manageable after that with a road game against Utah on Wednesday followed by home contests versus Ottawa and St. Louis on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Carolina is still without Frederik Andersen (lower body), and there’s no guarantee he’ll be an option next week, so Spencer Martin might make his season debut. The 29-year-old is far from an ideal choice, but Carolina is one of the most goaltender-friendly teams in the league, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Martin walk away with the win if he faces the Senators or Blues.

That’ll be especially true if Martin Necas remains hot. He’s on an eight-game scoring streak in which he’s provided six goals and 18 points. Necas took a step back last season with a 53-point showing, but he’s a good bet to rebound with the second 70-plus point campaign of his career. Just don’t count on him maintaining anything close to his current point-per-game pace, which stands at 1.75 (21 points in 12 outings). Necas has been impressive, but he’s unlikely to finish 2024-25 among the league’s scoring leaders. To give you some perspective, he had seven goals and 17 points through 11 appearances in 2022-23 and finished that campaign outside the top-50 in the scoring race despite logging the full 82 games.

Moving from the Hurricanes’ top offensive performer to a physical defenseman, Riley Stillman (lower body) will likely make his Hurricanes debut soon. He had a goal, eight points, 81 hits and 44 blocks in 50 outings between Vancouver and Buffalo in 2023-24. His presence won’t dramatically alter Carolina’s blue line, but we might see Sean Walker be an infrequent healthy scratch after dressing in all of the team’s first 12 games. Maybe Jalen Chatfield will end up being a scratch at some point too if everyone is healthy, though I suspect Walker’s position in the lineup is less secure.

Nashville Predators (Mon @ COL, Thu @ EDM, Fri @ CGY, Sun @ VAN)

Not secure describes the Predators pretty well. Nashville GM Barry Trotz even recently floated the idea of beginning the team’s rebuild plan if the team doesn’t start turning around -- a move that would be awkward after signing veterans Steven Stamkos to a four-year, $32 million contract and Jonathan Marchessault to a five-year, $27.5 million deal over the summer.

All the same, you can hardly blame Trotz for thinking that way after the club’s 4-9-1 start. Perhaps next week will offer more hope, though it would have to come on the road. The Predators will play in Colorado on Monday, Edmonton on Thursday, Calgary on Friday and Vancouver on Sunday.

Stamkos is finally showing life, providing three goals and six points across his past six games after being limited to one point (a goal) over his opening eight appearances. The problem is no other Predators player has stepped up recently -- outside of Stamkos, every Nashville skater has recorded three or fewer points over the team’s past six games.

Then there’s Juuse Saros, who is leaving plenty to be desired with a 3-7-1 record, 2.85 GAA and .904 save percentage in 11 outings. You might be wondering if his mediocre numbers are a reflection of struggles on his end or just a byproduct of poor play in front of him. Nashville ranks 24th in xGA/60 at 3.27 while Saros’ goals saved above expected is plus-3.9, which suggests Saros has been doing fine, but the Predators have been letting him down. If there’s any silver lining to be had there, it suggests that if Nashville can start tightening up defensively, then Saros will reward his teammates by putting up the kind of elite numbers we know he’s capable of. Imagining that scenario, though, might just be an exercise in wishful thinking.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon vs SJS, Thu @ OTT, Sat vs BUF)

The Flyers haven’t been much better than Nashville, though Philadelphia doesn’t have the same burden of expectations. Either way, the 5-8-1 Flyers have a favorable set of adversaries ahead of them. They’ll host the Sharks on Monday, play in Ottawa on Thursday and conclude the week with a home game versus the Sabres on Saturday.

Samuel Ersson (lower body) and Aleksei Kolosov (lower body) weren’t able to play Thursday, which left Ivan Fedotov, who had a 5.35 GAA and an .821 save percentage through his first three starts, to get the nod against Tampa Bay while Kyle Konin signed an amateur tryout to be the emergency backup. Despite those challenging circumstances, Philadelphia earned a 2-1 shootout victory over the Lightning, but I wouldn’t count on seeing continued success out of Fedotov if Ersson and Kolosov remain on the sidelines. Not that I have much confidence in any of the Flyers’ current goaltenders.

To be fair, the Flyers’ netminders get sparse goal support even when they manage to put forth a strong showing. Philadelphia ranks 27th offensively with 2.50 goals per game. Matvei Michkov has been one of the Flyers’ few scoring threats with four goals and 10 points in 13 outings, but coach John Tortorella hasn’t been thrilled with the 19-year-old forward’s five-on-five play -- note that Michkov is minus-8 and only three of his points have come at even strength -- which led to him being a healthy scratch Thursday. It’s also worth noting that his production has slowed recently, resulting in him registering just an assist over his past five outings.

Michkov is still young, so some growing pains are expected, and with Tortorella certainly not being afraid to mix some tough love into his teaching regime, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the occasional healthy scratch sprinkled in there as the campaign progresses. Taking a step back, a reasonable project for Michkov’s rookie season would be about 50 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon vs DAL, Wed vs DET, Fri @ CBJ, Sat vs SJS)

Sidney Crosby is continuing to defy his age, but it hasn’t been enough. Pittsburgh is 5-8-2, putting more pressure on the squad to start to right the ship. The Penguins are set to host Dallas and Detroit on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. They’ll then play in Columbus on Friday and round out the week by hosting the Sharks on Saturday.

Cody Glass (upper body) was put on injured reserve Friday while Bryan Rust (lower body) was activated, enabling him to return to the lineup after a five-game absence.

As I already alluded to, Crosby has continued to dominate in Rust’s absence -- Crosby has six goals and 15 points through 15 appearances in 2024-25 -- but Rust is nevertheless likely to rejoin the top line. That would probably result in Evgeni Malkin moving off the top unit to his more standard position headlining the second line. For what it’s worth, Malkin and Crosby have shown up on the scoresheet together for just two even-strength goals this season, and Malkin has been quiet lately with a goal and two points across his past five games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games, along with six of its past eight, so it’s not like there are circumstances on a team level or a line level that would compel head coach Mike Sullivan to keep Malkin and Crosby together in five-on-five play at this time.

At the other end of the ice, the goaltending situation continues to be a question mark. Alex Nedeljkovic gave the Penguins hope with strong starts against the lowly Ducks and Canadiens, but he’s faded quickly, allowing eight goals on 44 shots (.818 save percentage) over his past two losses to the Islanders and Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Tristan Jarry has been rebuilding his confidence in the minors, posting a 1.69 GAA and a .946 save percentage across four games with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Perhaps Jarry will get recalled soon and get another shot? Just as the Crosby-Malkin duo hasn’t done anything to force Sullivan to keep them together, Nedeljkovic’s play isn’t great enough to secure the No. 1 job, so the possibility of a Jarry comeback remains.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs CBJ, Thu vs CHI, Sat vs NYI, Sun vs NYR)

The Kraken will stay at home next week, hosting the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and finally the Rangers on Sunday. We’ll see if that homestand will right the ship for Seattle, which has lost four straight games and seven of its last eight contests, dropping to 5-8-1.

Seattle has managed just 2.25 goals per game across its last eight matches, but interestingly, there have been some standout performers over that stretch. Jared McCann and Matty Beniers have each managed three goals and eight points during Seattle’s slump while defenseman Brandon Montour has contributed three goals and six points in that span.

The problem is other players you’d expect to do well have fallen short. Oliver Bjorkstrand is the most notable example of that. He set a career high with 59 points last season but has just three goals and five points through 13 appearances in 2024-25 and is heading in the wrong direction with a goal and an assist across his past eight outings. Those struggles reached a possible crescendo when he was scratched Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if he uses that time in the press box to reset.

Jordan Eberle and Eeli Tolvanen need to rebound too. They have managed just two and three points, respectively, over Seattle’s past eight games. Neither is a major offensive threat, but they are important secondary scorers for the Kraken and lately, they have failed to fulfill that role.

Some of those cold stretches would have been swept under the rug if Shane Wright was adapting to the NHL, but the No. 4 overall pick from the 2022 NHL Draft has been disappointing thus far, providing just a goal and two points through 14 games in 2024-25. I wonder if he might benefit from a stint in the press box of his own. Either way, it’s impossible to recommend him at this time in standard leagues, but I will at least say the potential remains there, so he’s worth keeping an eye on. If you want a silver lining, you could say that the Kraken’s overall offensive struggles do open the door to Wright landing a top six spot if only he could start producing.

St. Louis Blues (Tue vs BOS, Thu @ BUF, Fri @ BOS, Sun @ CAR)

The Blues have a busy week ahead of them, but the competition isn’t the easiest. They’ll host the Bruins on Tuesday before heading on the road to play in Buffalo on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Carolina on Sunday.

We could all breathe a sigh of relief after Dylan Holloway avoided serious injury after a scary incident Tuesday when he was hit by a high puck and taken away on a stretcher. He even managed to play in St. Louis’ very next game. His former Oilers teammate who came with him to St. Louis, though, will be out for a while.

Philip Broberg suffered a lower-body injury Saturday and is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks. Broberg had been making the most of the increased role the Blues gave him, providing two goals and nine points through 12 appearances while averaging 19:34 of ice time. St. Louis is also missing Torey Krug (ankle) for the 2024-25 campaign and Nick Leddy (lower body), though at least in Leddy’s case, he might be back in the not-too-distant future.

Absences have likely contributed to Ryan Suter playing a bigger role than initially envisioned. Although he an insanely big minutes eater in his prime, Suter dipped below 20 minutes per game in 2023-24 for the first time since his rookie campaign, averaging 18:56 of ice time with Dallas. The 39-year-old initially looked like he would have a strictly supporting role with St. Louis in 2024-25, averaging just 16:02 across the Blues’ opening four games. Then Leddy got hurt, and Suter has averaged 23:53 since. Don’t be surprised if Suter’s ice time takes a notable hit once Leddy is back, though until Broberg is healthy too, Suter will probably still see at least decent minutes.

Leddy’s eventual return might also make things a little easier on Blues goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Neither netminder has gotten off to a good start, though Binnington has been encouraging recently. He’s still just 4-5-0 with a 2.78 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 10 outings overall, but he’s saved 75 of 81 shots (.926 save percentage) across his past three games. Going into the season, it looked like Hofer might challenge Binnington for the starting gig, but that hasn’t happened yet to any major extent, and Binnington’s recent success helps put more distance between the two.

Vancouver Canucks (Tue vs CGY, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs CHI, Sun vs NSH)

Vancouver is on a three-game winning streak, bringing the Canucks up to 7-2-3. They’ll look to continue that success next week with home games against Calgary on Tuesday, the Islanders on Thursday, Chicago on Saturday and Nashville on Sunday.

While things are going well for the Canucks overall, the same can’t be said for Elias Pettersson. He has two goals and five points across 12 appearances in 2024-25. He did discuss his slump last week, and unfortunately, not much has changed since with Pettersson providing one point (a goal) over his past three games despite Vancouver combining for a solid 12 goals during that stretch.

One thing I didn’t bring up then is Pettersson’s shot total, which is concerning low at 22, which translates to 5.7 shots per 60 minutes, a drop from 7.7 last year. That’s despite having one six-shot game in 2024-25 -- he also has been held to a single shot on seven occasions. He also has just 52 shot attempts, which is 4.3 per game, down from 4.9 in 2023-24.

I went to dig a bit deeper, and one thing that stood out to me is that his skating metrics are down from last year, and the same can be said about his shot speed. In terms of shot location, 60 of his 207 in 2023-24 were high danger, translating to roughly 29 percent while he has nine of 22 (40.9 percent) in high-danger locations this campaign, so at least when he is shooting the location is generally good, but still, some of those other metrics are concerning.

Pettersson is still just 25, so unless he’s playing hurt, I don’t think it’s fair to believe there isn’t a physical reason for his drop in play. Instead, it’s likely to be mental, which is a theory that gains credibility when you consider former Canucks head coach Bruce Boudreau’s analysis of the situation, per the Vancouver Province. Boudreau noted that Pettersson “doesn’t look excited when he plays and gets frustrated very easily.” Perhaps the pressure of his eight-year, $92.8 million contract, which he’s in the first season of, is getting to the star forward.

Whatever the case, other members of the Canucks have been picking up the slack. Not much was expected of Conor Garland going into the campaign, but he’s been great, providing four goals and 11 points through 12 appearances. That probably won’t last, but he isn’t showing signs of slowing down yet after recording at least a point in each of his past three games. Defenseman Quinn Hughes is also red hot, supplying a goal and five points over his last two outings, bringing him up to three goals and 14 points in 12 appearances this season.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs CAR, Wed @ ANA, Fri @ UTA, Sun vs WSH)

The Golden Knights will start the upcoming week by hosting the Hurricanes, but after that, they’ll have to take to the road. Vegas will play in Anaheim on Wednesday, Utah on Friday and Washington on Sunday.

The Golden Knights have won six of their past seven games, elevating their record to 9-3-1. The top line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev continues to be a major part of that with Stone leading the way with six goals and 21 points in 13 outings. The 32-year-old Stone is on a seven-game scoring streak (four goals,12 points) and has been held off the scoresheet just once in 2024-25.

It also helps to have a player of Tomas Hertl’s caliber on the second unit, who has four goals and 12 points through 13 outings. Meanwhile, Noah Hanifin is red hot from the blue line with three goals and eight points across his past two games.

Those two really highlight the amazing sticking power Vegas has managed thanks to its aggressive trade strategy. Those are two veterans who were added during the 2023-24 campaign and are locked up to 2027-28. Other teams add rental pieces leading up to a Cup run, but the Golden Knights tend to take a longer view when making trades, so even when a postseason run doesn’t work out, as was the case in 2024, the additions they made are still around to help them moving forward.

Eventually, the bottom might fall out of this strategy. In the cap era, we haven’t seen a team that has been able to sustain itself indefinitely on trades alone without going through a rebuild. But when you look at the team’s core of Eichel, Stone, Hertl, Barbashev, William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin and Shea Theodore, you’re seeing a group that’s still largely in its prime and positioned to potentially be competitive for years to come.

The one thing that the group is missing is a star goaltender. Adin Hill can be solid, but he also has his rough patches, and the 2024-25 campaign has been more miss than hit for him so far, leaving Hill with a 3.01 GAA and an .882 save percentage through eight outings. On the plus side, he’s allowed just five goals on 64 shots (.922 save percentage) across his past three starts, and the Golden Knights are strong enough offensively to put him in a position to win even when he doesn’t have a great night, so there’s still plenty of value to be had here.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (October 21st to 27th) – Avalanche and Predators Off to Rocky Starts

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 20 Oct 2024 13:00:39 +0000

_{VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 30: Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros (74) stops the puck during Game Five of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs between the Nashville Predators and the Vancouver Canucks on April 30, 2024, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, B.C. (Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire)}

We’re still way too early into the season to read anything into the standings, but it is eyebrow-raising to see Colorado and Nashville both 0-4-0 through Thursday’s action.

Goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is a big part of the Avalanche’s early woes, posting a record of 0-3-0 with a 5.80 GAA and an .802 save percentage across four appearances this season. To put that into context, Jack Campbell got off to a 1-3-0 start with a 4.35 GAA and an .878 save percentage in four contests with Edmonton last year, and he played in just one more game beyond that before being sent to the minors. It’s not as if Georgiev has a strong track record to fall back on either. Yes, he won 38 games last year, but that was thanks to Colorado’s stellar offense. Georgiev finished the 2023-24 regular season with a 3.02 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 63 contests.

Do I think Georgiev is about to be sent to the minors? No, but there is an opportunity here for Justus Annunen or Kaapo Kahkonen to get a serious look, especially because Georgiev is in the final campaign of his three-year deal, so the Avalanche aren’t locked into him.

On the Nashville side, Juuse Saros hasn’t been great either (3.84 GAA and .878 save percentage through three games), but he has a far superior body of work, and there’s more reason to believe he will bounce back. It is somewhat interesting that Nashville hasn’t gotten any offensive production out of Steven Stamkos yet, but the former Lightning captain has fired 14 shots over four games, so we should see something out of him soon.

Colorado Avalanche

If there’s a silver lining for the Avalanche, it’s that their upcoming schedule looks extremely favorable. In addition to wrapping up this week with games against a pair of teams not projected to make the playoffs, Anaheim and San Jose, on Friday and Sunday, respectively, Colorado’s competition next week is fairly middling. The Avalanche will play in Seattle on Tuesday and Utah on Thursday before wrapping up next week’s action by hosting Ottawa on Sunday.

I picked on Georgiev during the intro -- justifiably so, in my opinion -- but I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that Colorado has far more than its fair share of important players injured. Up front, Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Gabriel Landeskog (knee), Atturi Lehkonen (shoulder) and Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) are all on the shelf. Meanwhile, Colorado’s second-best defenseman, Devon Toews, has been dealing with a lower-body injury.

Landeskog, Lehkonen and Nichushkin were already known to be long-term absences, but Drouin won’t be re-evaluated until Oct. 28, so he’s not going to be an option next week either. There isn’t much clarity when it comes to Toews timetable, so maybe the Avalanche will at least get him back.

Could it be argued that all those injuries are part of the reason for Georgiev’s struggles? After all, goaltending doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and when the quality of the play in front of the goaltender diminishes, their numbers tend to suffer. That might be a factor, but it’s not enough to completely explain away Georgiev’s horrendous’ numbers. Taking a look at Goals Saved Above Expected, per Moneypuck, which attempts to evaluate a goaltender independent of his team, Georgiev isn’t just the worst goaltender in the league, it’s not even close. He’s minus-9.5 while the next worst is a tie between Stuart Skinner and Ivan Fedotov at minus-3.9.

That’s why I focused on goaltending rather than injuries up top -- no matter what else happens, Colorado won’t have a successful season without better netminding. It’s simply nearly impossible to assemble a team capable of winning games consistently when your goaltender is this leaky. Although all that said, rather than need a new goaltender, it is possible that Georgiev will at least improve somewhat as the campaign goes on -- he certainly can’t get much worse.

That all aside, Colorado’s injuries have created opportunities for other players to step up. Ross Colton has gone from recording 40 points (17 goals) in 80 regular-season games while averaging 13:43 of ice time in 2023-24 to contributing two goals and three points while averaging 18:42 this year. Given the Avalanche’s situation, Colton should continue to get plenty of work in the upcoming week, and his production should remain respectable as a result.

Casey Mittelstadt is the second-line center, which would remain the case even if everyone was healthy, but those injuries have led to him playing on the top power-play unit. He’s supplied three goals through four games, including one with the man advantage.

Unfortunately, Colorado’s younger cast of Calum Ritchie, Nikolai Kovalenko and Ivan Ivan haven’t been able to step up in the face of the Avalanche’s injuries. They’re still worth keeping an eye on, but none of them have done enough yet to warrant a roster spot in standard fantasy leagues.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings will split next week between road and home games. They’ll play the Islanders and Sabres on the road Tuesday and Saturday, respectively, and host the Devils and Oilers on Thursday and Sunday, respectively. It’s a mixed bag as far as the level of competition goes, but it’s still worthy of mention based on how full Detroit’s schedule is.

The Red Wings got off to a 1-3-0 start. The most noteworthy thing to happen during that span was Ville Husso allowing four goals on 14 shots in 25:28 minutes of action en route to a 6-3 loss to Pittsburgh on Oct. 10. Just like that, Husso promptly changed from Detroit’s Opening Night starter to an AHLer, leaving Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot on the NHL roster. Neither goaltender is the clear-cut No. 1 at this time, so don’t be surprised if they split next week’s starts evenly.

Up front, Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko have gotten off to a slow start, each recording just one point through four appearances. The duo got a look together, but they’ve been split with Kane now playing alongside his old Blackhawks buddy in Alex DeBrncat while Tarasenko is getting a look with Lucas Raymond. That shakeup might help spark both of those veteran forwards.

On defense, the biggest surprise is Erik Gustafsson spending two of Detroit’s first four games as a healthy scratch. He did register a power-play assist in the Red Wings’ Opening Night and picked up another one when he re-entered the lineup for Detroit’s 5-2 loss to the Rangers on Oct. 17. Gustafsson looked like a potential replacement for Shayne Gostisbehere, who is now with Carolina, on Detroit’s top power-play unit, and that still appears to be Gustafsson’s role when he’s in the lineup. However, if the blueliner isn’t going to play consistently, then obviously his fantasy value will suffer dramatically.

Nashville Predators

The Predators will kick off the week with a tough home contest against Boston, but things will get easier afterward with a road clash versus Chicago on Friday before the Predators host Columbus on Saturday.

With the Predators winless at the time of writing, Stamkos needs to get going. As noted above, though, that should happen. A degree of transitional pain isn’t shocking given Stamkos not only spent his entire NHL career to this point with Tampa Bay but doesn’t even have much experience at the top level adjusting to a new head coach -- Jon Cooper has been running the show in Tampa Bay since he took over during the 2012-13 campaign. Still, Stamkos has also just had some bad puck luck, and things should even out eventually.

One player who hasn’t needed time to get going is Roman Josi. He already has three assists through four outings this year. As a fun aside, the Predators captain is now just 11 points from becoming the first player in Predators history to accumulate 700 points with the franchise -- the 34-year-old defenseman has spent his full career in Nashville.

Filip Forsberg ranks second on that chart with 609 career points. He accumulated 48 goals and 94 points across 82 regular-season contests in 2023-24 and is off to a strong start this campaign with two goals and four points through four games. Playing alongside Forsberg is the best assignment Nashville can offer, and it will be interesting to see if Stamkos or fellow newcomer Jonathan Marchessault get much of a look alongside him. So far Forsberg has mostly played alongside Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist at even strength, which to be fair is a line that worked great last season and seems to be continuing to pay dividends, so Nashville doesn’t have much motivation to mess with that.

New Jersey Devils

Through Thursday’s action, no team has played more games than New Jersey. The Devils have already logged seven contests while Carolina has gotten into only two games (albeit that’s after the Hurricanes-Lightning game that would have been played Oct. 12 got postponed). The schedule isn’t getting any lighter for the Devils next week: They’ll host the Lightning on Tuesday, play in Detroit on Thursday and then wrap the week with home games against the Islanders and the Ducks on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

The Devils won five of their first seven games, putting them in a strong opening position after missing the playoffs last season. Although he’s been far from perfect, Jacob Markstrom has evened out to be a good acquisition thus far, posting a 3-2-0 record, 2.42 GAA and .918 save percentage through five starts. Credit also needs to go to Jake Allen, who has been masterful in his two starts, saving a combined 37 of 38 shots en route to two victories. Allen should be expected to play at least one game next week, likely either against Detroit on Thursday or the Islanders on Friday.

On defense, Brett Pesce (leg) and Luke Hughes (shoulder) remain out, and there’s no indication that either’s return is imminent. That should allow rookie Seamus Casey to continue to play regularly. Casey has averaged just 12:35 of ice time, but that includes a role on the second power-play unit, which has paid off. He has three goals and four points across seven appearances, including two markers with the man advantage. I’m not confident Casey will remain with the team long-term, but he’s not a bad short-term pickup, especially with how heavy the Devils’ schedule is.

New York Rangers

The Rangers will open the week with a contest in Montreal on Tuesday before heading home to host the Panthers on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday. While Florida is a difficult adversary, Montreal and Anaheim are rebuilding squads.

While you never want to get overly excited over four games, Artemi Panarin has been unreal with five goals and 11 points in that span. Panarin set career highs in 2023-24 with 49 goals and 120 points in 82 regular-season outings, and he may put up similar numbers this year.

That’s great for Alexis Lafreniere, who has played almost exclusively alongside Panarin at even strength so far this season. Lafreniere has two goals and five points through four appearances, and Panarin has been involved in all of Lafreniere’s offense. It took the 2020 No. 1 overall pick a few seasons to get going, but he set personal bests with 28 goals and 57 points last campaign, and that might be just a taste of what his career has in store.

By contrast, Kaapo Kakko, who was the No. 2 overall pick in 2019, still hasn’t managed to find his way. He showed promise in 2022-23 with 18 goals and 40 points in 82 regular-season outings, but he faltered last season, managing just 19 points in 61 appearances. He’ll try to rebound this campaign, and he does already have a decent two assists across four games, but Kakko seems limited to third-line duties alongside Will Cuylle and Filip Chytil, which limits his potential.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins will start next week with a home-and-away series against Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a second back-to-back set over the weekend in which Pittsburgh will host Minnesota on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday.

Like the Rangers in Panarin, Pittsburgh has a red-hot forward. Evgeni Malkin has accumulated two goals and 11 points through five appearances this year -- not bad for a 38 year old. That run includes his 500th career goal, which was tallied in Pittsburgh’s 6-5 overtime victory over Buffalo on Wednesday.

It hasn’t been all good news for the Penguins, though. Tristan Jarry is another netminder off to a disastrous start, posting a 1-1-0 record, 5.45 GAA and .836 save percentage through three outings. That’s particularly discouraging following his disappointing 2.91 GAA and .903 save percentage across 51 appearances last year.

Alex Nedeljkovic started the season on injured reserve due to a lower-body issue, which gave Jarry an opportunity to make his case for the starting gig after losing it in the final weeks of 2023-24. Instead, Pittsburgh has every reason to give the job to Nedeljkovic once he’s healthy. Nedeljkovic was taken off IR and moved to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Thursday for conditioning, so he probably will be back with the Penguins in the near future.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto doesn’t have an easy week ahead, but it is at least one with plenty of actions. The Maple Leafs will host Tampa Bay on Monday, play in Columbus on Tuesday, return to Toronto to face the Blues on Thursday, and then conclude the week with a game in Boston on Saturday.

The Maple Leafs made a three-year, $11 million commitment to Joseph Woll over the summer that will begin with the 2025-26 campaign. That contract might prove to be favorable to the Maple Leafs if the 26-year-old develops into the starting goaltender Toronto is hoping he can be, but it might be soured due to injuries. Woll dealt with health problems last season and hasn’t played yet in 2024-25 due to a lower-body issue, though his time on the shelf might be coming to a close after taking part in Friday’s practice.

When he does return, he might find himself as the understudy. Although the situation remains fluid, Anthony Stolarz has at least for now forced the Maple Leafs to see him as the No. 1 option after posting a 2-1-0 record, 1.69 GAA and .940 save percentage across three appearances this season. Dennis Hildeby looked solid in his NHL debut too, stopping 21 of 23 shots en route to a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Oct. 10, but he’ll nevertheless report to the AHL once Woll is healthy.

Up front, John Tavares’ situation is arguably the most interesting one to watch. Although he has seen a significant amount of time on the second line alongside Max Domi and William Nylander, the Maple Leafs have also experimented with using Tavares on the third unit with Pontus Holmberg and Nicholas Robertson. Part of that is enabling the Maple Leafs to spread out its offense more evenly, but it might also be a bit of a reflection of Tavares’ age. To be fair, he has two goals through three appearances, so his early production has been nothing to complain about, but it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized throughout the season.

Tavares’ use also ties in with Bobby McMann, who stands to gain a top-six spot if Tavares ends up spending regular minutes on the third line. McMann has provided three goals across three outings after being a surprise healthy scratch in Toronto’s opener.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights will play at home next week, hosting the Kings on Tuesday, the Senators on Friday and the Sharks on Saturday.

Vegas was a team that thrived at home last season, posting a 27-12-2 record at T-Mobile Arena versus 18-17-6 on the road. That trend has continued into the early portion of 2024-25 -- the Golden Knights have a 3-0-0 home record and are 0-2-0 away. If the split continues to be noticeable, it will be worth skewing towards Vegas players when the squad is at home and shying away from the Golden Knights a bit in other locations.

Not that the top line has shown any care for where the squad is playing. Jack Eichel has begun the campaign on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s provided two goals and 10 points. Linemates Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev are right behind him with nine and eight points, respectively. Defenseman Shea Theodore has also been a standout performer with a goal and seven points across five outings.

As a group, Vegas has little to complain about offensively. Adin Hill has left something to be desired, though, allowing at least three goals in each of his first four games. That offense has allowed him to escape that stretch with an okay 2-2-0 record, but in the long run, Vegas will need more out of him. Otherwise, there will be an opportunity for Ilya Samsonov. The 27-year-old backup stopped 22 of 23 shots en route to a 3-1 win against Anaheim on Sunday, but he otherwise hasn’t been tested this season. Samsonov has been a mixed bag in his career, and it’s hard to know what to expect from him this time around. If you did draft Hill, though, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge your bets by grabbing Samsonov.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Team Preview

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 20:00:40 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - March 25: Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (9) during a regular season game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the St. Louis Blues on March 25, 2024, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)}

The defending Stanley Cup champions made it into the playoffs, recording 98 points (45-29-8), and lost in seven games to Dallas Stars in the first round. The Golden Knights dealt with injuries to key personnel, with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore, and Alex Pietrangelo all missing at least 18 games, so there were some difficulties that had not been such a problem the year before. The Golden Knights ranked 21st in Corsi percentage (48.6%) but fared better when it came to expected goals percentage, ranking 13th with 51.3%. Either way, those are numbers closer to a mediocre team and not necessarily a championship contender. Vegas’ power play ranked 21st with 7.19 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty killing ranked 11th with 7.15 goals per 60 minutes. Those special teams results pretty much even each other out, so there was not much reason to believe that the Golden Knights were capable of defending their championship. They had enough to get into the playoffs and enough to give Dallas a competitive series, but ultimately the Golden Knights were not serious championship contenders.

WHAT’S CHANGED? It was a difficult offseason for the Golden Knights as they watched both Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson leave via free agency, signing with Nashville and Seattle, respectively. Veteran defenceman Alec Martinez moved on to Chicago and winger Anthony Mantha signed in Calgary. The Golden Knights made their biggest acquisitions before the trade deadline, acquiring defenceman Noah Hanifin from Calgary and centre Tomas Hertl from San Jose. In the offseason, Vegas signed winger Victor Olofsson, who had played with Eichel in Buffalo, and traded left winger Paul Cotter to New Jersey for right winger Alexander Holtz and goaltender Akira Schmid. The Golden Knights also signed goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who played for Toronto for the past two seasons.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? The Golden Knights have always appeared to be pushing for the Stanley Cup and that would presumably be the team’s goal this season, but after their losses in free agency it seems like the next championship is further out of their grasp. Making the playoffs again would count as modest success, but if the Golden Knights are in the playoff hunt, they will find a way to bring in more talent so that they can compete for a title because that is how this team rolls.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? While the Golden Knights come under scrutiny for having team captain Mark Stone emerge from the injured list just in time for the playoffs, it is noteworthy that Stone has missed large chunks of each of the past three seasons. Injuries are a concern for any team, but the Golden Knights have enough older players that their injuries can take longer to heal, and eventually those players just become shells of the players they were before. Stone is the most glaring case, but there are plenty of quality players in Vegas who could have a negative impact if they are knocked out with injuries. Any team will be in trouble if key players are injured, but the Golden Knights do not have great depth so they could be in tough shape if they suffer significant injuries.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Having lost quality players this summer, the Golden Knights could really use some younger players to rise to the occasion. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev and Brendan Brisson are possibilities, but Alexander Holtz is the best breakout candidate for the Golden Knights. Holtz was the seventh pick in the 2020 Draft and while he has taken some time to carve out his place in the NHL, he scored 16 goals (15 at even strength) last season while playing just 11:38 per game. There will be a chance for Holtz to play more minutes in Vegas and potentially unleash the scorer that is waiting to be turned loose.

Forwards

Ivan Barbashev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	23	28	51	0.62

Ivan Barbashev has been a fixture along top center Jack Eichel ever since arriving in Las Vegas. The chemistry between these two continues to grow and evolve and 2023-24 was no exception. Barbashev was only slightly behind the pace of his normal offensive rates and ended the year with 19 goals with only three of those coming via the power-play as he had limited minutes with the man-advantage. The quicker the pace, the more Barbashev looked at home last season. He finished in the top third of the league’s forwards in forecheck involvement and rush offence, a testament to his partnership with Eichel. Barbashev’s defensive returns are generally not very grand, but they regressed in 2023-24 and he found himself in the 1st percentile of NHL forwards regarding even-strength defensive WAR. Barbashev’s puck support and off-puck positioning often do the thankless work of opening up space for teammates or keeping loose pucks alive in the offensive zone. Barbashev ended the season posting puck-possession and expected-goal rates that were roughly five percent higher relative to his teammates. The expectation for this season is for Barbashev to return to Eichel’s wing on the top line and continue to take peripheral power-play minutes. While his shooting percentage and finishing ability experienced a bump year over year, Barbashev’s shot totals dipped slightly. In order for his goal total to go beyond 20 this year, he’ll need to shoot the puck a bit more this season.

Jack Eichel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	37	35	72	1.03

Eichel cracked the 30-goal plateau last season for the first time since 2019-20 and experienced an increase in almost every statistical bucket offensively speaking. He was in the 99th percentile of NHL forwards with regards to both zone entries with possession of the puck and shots created off of the rush, a testament to how much the puck was on Eichel’s stick. His skating has, over time, matured into a great combination of speed and power. His first few steps are explosive, and he continues to exhibit high levels of puck protection and dangle-ability, routinely putting defencemen in compromising positions in transition. Eichel’s offensive performance last season was so strong that he experienced great leaps in his defensive results by virtue of playing a lot of hockey in the offensive zone and being dogged on the backcheck. Eichel’s even-strength defensive returns went from the 58th percentile of NHL forwards in 2022-23 to the 94th percentile of NHL forwards in 2023-24. Although the reliability and speed of Jonathan Marchessault is no longer there, former linemate Victor Olofsson, former linemate of Eichel in Buffalo, steps in to take his spot. I expect Eichel to continue to lead the pace for the Golden Knights forward group using his explosive skating and confidence in carrying the puck as the main straw that continue to stir the drink for Vegas’ offence.

Victor Olofsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	18	16	34	0.46

Victor Olofsson is arriving to Vegas alongside a familiar face. During their tenure together in Buffalo, Olofsson and Jack Eichel spent over 800 minutes together at even-strength over the years. Olofsson has two separate 20 goal campaigns playing alongside Eichel. Although he struggled last year to return to his 28-goal form of the previous season, there’s a longstanding history of Olofsson being able to provide 20+ goals in the right environment. Playing on the Golden Knights top line certainly seems to be that kind of potentially thriving environment. Olofsson’s finishing took a big hit last year as he missed a significant chunk of time with injury. Assuming he deploys on the Golden Knights top line, the familiar face and playmaking ability of Eichel combined with the space creating ability of Ivan Barbashev seems like the perfect situation for a player of Olofsson’s skill. His shot and ability to nestle into open space are two of his best attributes. He should find plenty of time and space to execute on his best abilities but be cautioned that the Golden Knights’ power-play is chock full of talent and I don’t expect Olofsson to usurp anyone on that unit. He may get secondary power-play minutes, but whether or not he cracks the 20-goal plateau this year may depend on exactly how much power-play time that ends up being.

Mark Stone

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
60	22	40	62	0.13

While Mark Stone became the centerpiece for discussions around Long Term Injured Reserve cap savings last season, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that he was actually hurt. His recovery from a lacerated spleen took a long time and wasn’t anything to be written-off as cap shenanigans. Despite the injury, Stone looked much like himself upon returning to the lineup for the post-season. Despite only playing in 56 games during the regular season, Stone’s 53 points were his highest total since 2020-21. When healthy, Stone is the rare type of player that can give you tangible results in the offensive and defensive zone alike. A dedicated, two-way forward, he uses his size and skating to put himself in advantageous positions with and without the puck. A cerebral player, Stone is deployable in virtually any situation and can be leaned on for both needing a goal late in a game and holding a lead late in the game. Stone posts yearly results with regards to Wins Above Replacement that are markedly similar year after year, a testament to his overall consistency when he’s in the lineup. One note to watch for, Stone’s shot rates were low last year relative to his own averages. If those numbers increase, expect Stone to best his 16-goal total from last season.

Tomas Hertl

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	26	36	62	0.81

Hertl arrived in Vegas via trade out of San Jose and was shelved for a knee injury before his arrival and had to wait until April to make his official debut. Getting his wheels back under him post-procedure seemed to take a little bit of time, and the Golden Knights were eliminated from playoff contention before we really had an opportunity to see the new pieces, Hertl especially, settle into their new roles. The expectation for Hertl this season is that he’ll step into second-line duty alongside Mark Stone. That gives the Golden Knights some significant size and skill in their top six unit, as both he and Stone play a physical, north-south style of hockey. Stone and Hertl didn’t spend enough time together in the playoffs to garner any real insight into how they match up, but the early returns weren’t the best. They didn’t register a goal together in just under an hour of ice time and spent an uncanny amount of time in their own zone. Traditionally sound defensively, Hertl should bolster the already great defensive returns provided by Stone. With three goals in his first thirteen games as a member of the Golden Knights, it’s fair to assume training camp will provide the needed organization and control required to pick up on a new environment with a clean bill of health. He should be a safe bet to return to 25 goals and 60+ points.

Pavel Dorofeyev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	25	25	50	0.69

Pavel Dorofeyev had a breakout season last year offensively and has seemingly cemented a spot for himself in the Golden Knights top six forward group. He missed time due to injury last year, most notably an upper-body issue at the midpoint of the season. Fresh off of a two-year extension, the expectation is for him to slot into the second line alongside Mark Stone, but don’t rule out a promotion later in the year if he gets hot from a goal scoring perspective. Dorofeyev is a deceptive, talented winger that has a great shot that he uses in a variety of fashions and strong individual skills that he uses to dangle through defenders. He has added weight each season and improved his strength in some of the battle areas of the ice. Overall, however, no Vegas forward had a lower impact on shots generated off the forecheck or the cycle. Dorofeyev is at his best when he’s surrounded by players that can do that lifting for him and a combination of Stone and Tomas Hertl should significantly help in that department. Dorofeyev had the fourth highest carry-in percentage of any Golden Knights forward, a testament to his skill with the puck and desire to get north as quickly as possible. With a clean bill of health, Dorofeyev is one of the more interesting forwards to keep an eye on this upcoming season, as there’s plenty of reason to believe his game is still maturing. If he finds chemistry on his line, and can stay healthy, he can threaten 20 goals and 50+ points.

Alexander Holtz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	18	36	0.44

Holtz arrives in Vegas having played his first full 82 game season with the New Jersey Devils last year and looking to soften some of the forward losses Vegas experienced over the offseason. In what can be considered a personnel issue, Holtz was not given a ton of looks inside the Devils top six and never was able to leapfrog his peers for ice time in that grouping. He arrives in Las Vegas with a similar issue facing him, but a cast of characters and playing style that might suit him well. At just 22 years old, Holtz still has a lot of maturation and development in front of him, but we’ve already seen the core of his skills that should grow and mature with age. Holtz’ best attribute is his shot, and he isn’t afraid to use it. He was in the 85th percentile of NHL forwards regarding raw shot totals and the 93rd percentile of NHL forwards with regards to shots taken off of the rush. With 16 goals in 82 games last year, Holtz was able to showcase some of the elusiveness and puck skill that made him a top ten pick in the 2020 NHL draft. Expect Holtz to get some looks in the top six in the event of injuries, but the expectation is that he’ll form a partnership with fellow speedy countryman, William Karlsson.

William Karlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	25	27	52	0.66

Karlsson was a force last year for Las Vegas, scoring 30 goals and 60 points in a 70-game campaign that saw him crack the 30-goal mark for the first time since the 2017-18 campaign. Karlsson has proven he has the ability to be deployed in any situation. His footspeed allows him to be a vital member of the penalty kill and his ability to shoot from everywhere and get the puck on net consistently is vital to the power-play. Last year, Karlsson’s defensive returns at even-strength put him in the 92nd percentile of NHL forwards, a testament to his two-way game and investment in backchecking to break plays up. He played through an injury in the NHL post-season that noticeably hampered his ability to operate in his usual capacity. One of the higher hockey IQ’s in the league, Karlsson uses his mobility to cut off plays on the forecheck. No Golden Knights forward had a higher percentage of forecheck pressures per 60 minutes of even-strength than Karlsson did. While his linemates are due to change this year, expect the core foundations of his game to remain the same. While another 30-goal season may be difficult to replicate, he’ll be surrounded by players that can complement his fast style of play.

Nicolas Roy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	13	20	33	0.44

This will be the first year in the existence of the Golden Knights bottom-six that William Carrier is not a foundational piece after departing for Carolina in free agency, but expect Nicolas Roy to step in and lay claim as the challenger to that throne. Roy is proving to be an extremely reliable bottom-six scoring presence. While his 13 goals in 2023-24 were his lowest total in three years, he surpassed his high-water mark for points with a total of 41 on the year. Held off the scoresheet entirely in the post-season, Roy will be looked upon to continue to provide a steady scoring presence in the bottom half of the Golden Knights lineup. You can summarize Roy’s 200-foot approach to the game by looking at impacts he has at both ends of the ice. Roy finished the year in the 99th percentile of NHL forwards with regards to his forecheck involvement and was in the 92nd percentile of NHL forwards for defensive zone exits. His shot metrics were down a touch last year, which could explain his slight drop on goals, but his puck-distribution abilities were on display in a major way as he bested his career assist total for a single season. Roy is deployable in a variety of situations and effectively uses his size to protect the puck and be a problem for opposing forwards in the defensive zone.

DEFENCE

Alex Pietrangelo

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	10	39	49	0.63

Alex Pietrangelo enjoyed another year as the leader of the Golden Knights defence. He remains one of the better skating defencemen in the league and is almost unflappable in his unwavering attention to protecting his own blueline. While his point totals were down year over year, he missed a bit more time due to injury than previous seasons. Coming into this year with a clean bill of health, Pietrangelo looks to get back to the success he had last year on the blueline. No Golden Knights defenceman had a lower percentage of opponents carry the puck across the blueline than Pietrangelo did. He also led the Golden Knights in defensive puck retrievals per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. That success on retrievals put him in the 100th percentile for NHL defencemen last year, a testament to how well Pietrangelo operates under pressure at both ends of the ice. He was also in the 92nd percentile for both shots and scoring chances among NHL defencemen last year. Pietrangelo seems immune to the effects of Father Time. Expect him to continue to take huge minutes for the Golden Knights in all situations, especially on the power-play, where he co-led in ice time with Shea Theodore. Pietrangelo was targeted for zone entries the least of any Golden Knights defenceman last year, directly speaking to his reputation as someone that can shut down an oncoming rush. On offence you can expect 10 or more goals and between 40 and 50 points.

Noah Hanifin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	33	45	0.55

After arriving via trade from the Calgary Flames, Hanifin immediately re-upped with the Golden Knights, signing an eight-year contract with an $7.35 million AAV. A steep price to be sure, but when you consider all the things Hanifin is good at, it seems like a small price to pay for a defenceman as multi-faceted as this. Hanifin arrived from Calgary and immediately fit into the Golden Knights system. This easy transition netted him 12 points in 19 regular season games with the team, and he followed that up with five points in seven playoff games. Hanifin ranked in the top third of the league in virtually every statistical bucket for defencemen: shots, assists, zone entry prevention, zone exits, and puck retrievals. You’d be as hard pressed to find a weakness in his game as you would be hard pressed to see him slip up under pressure. Hanifin is the perfect complement to a defenceman like Alex Pietrangelo and I expect the two of them to fully control the pace of play. In their 19 regular season games together, they controlled 58 percent of the shot-attempts and 55 percent of the expected goals. Their careful maintenance of the defensive blueline combined with their mobility will make this one of the most formidable top pairings in the league, and Hanifin will be a large part of that. In his 19 games, power play time was relatively split between Hanifin and Theodore, which will put a lid on offensive upside, but a safe bet for eight to 10 goals and 35 – 40 points.

Shea Theodore

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	12	44	56	0.74

Theodore missed a large chunk of the 2023-24 campaign due to surgery on an upper-body injury. That put him out of contention for almost a third of the season and put a stop to a scorching hot start that saw him register 18 points in the first 20 games of the season. Theodore struggled to regain that pace and settle back in but had a strong ending to the season and once again cracked the 40-point plateau for the year. Theodore’s strength is being the puck moving presence on the second pairing for the Golden Knights. Despite his injury, he still ranked in the 91st percentile among defencemen for defensive zone exit rate and in the 94th percentile for scoring chance contribution. Theodore is most comfortable with the puck on his stick, navigating his way through traffic. A true power-play architect, he isn’t afraid to sneak into the offensive zone to set up his teammates and put pucks on net. Theodore’s strong suit has never been transition defence, but it was an area he noticeably struggled in last season. Entering the final year of his contract, it will be interesting to see what direction Theodore heads as the trade deadline approaches. Does Vegas look to re-sign him, or does he end up an asset at the deadline? He will be motivated and should be favourite to head up the first power play, but he has competition there and by no means a sure thing. If healthy he should be a threat for 60+ points with the potential for more with a contract as incentive.

Brayden McNabb

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	3	17	20	0.24

Brayden McNabb played every regular season game for the Golden Knights for the second season in a row. The only thing steadier than his presence in the lineup is his presence defensively. McNabb’s 26 points in 2023-24 are the highest total he’s reached in his career and a testament to how much was asked of him in the absence of some of his puck-moving teammates to injury last season. McNabb’s strength is gap control and tidy business along the defensive blueline, a modern version of what shutdown defenceman looks like, as his approach is multifaceted. He was in the 78th percentile for hits last season and the 90th percentile for defensive zone entry denials. Only Alex Pietrangelo had a higher amount of defensive zone puck retrievals last season. A regular in the shot-blocking category, McNabb is very strong in front of the net and in the battle areas of the ice. While puck handling is not his strength, he can maneuver with the puck with competency and move it out of danger for a safe play. His penalty-killing presence has been of major importance to the Golden Knights throughout his tenure there. McNabb’s gap control and stick work make him a calming presence during rush situations. Also entering the last year of his contract, it will be intriguing to see what Vegas decides to do regarding his future with the team.

GOAL

Adin Hill

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
38	21	14	3	2	0.906	2.79

Ilya Samsonov

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
44	24	16	4	2	0.904	2.88

Former Arizona Coyotes prospect Adin Hill is a Stanley Cup champion - and now, it seems, he’s a clear-cut starter for a Vegas Golden Knights roster that seems poised to bank on the historically weak Pacific Division staying as weak as it’s been. Vegas cleared the way for Hill to become the true number one when they sent Logan Thompson out the door, ushering in a new third-stringer in Akira Schmid and bringing on a surprising backup in Ilya Samsonov.

Samsonov brings a higher upside and more-renowned pedigree than Hill, so the number one spot isn’t necessarily Hill’s for keeps. But despite stretches of strong play in Toronto, Samsonov was plagued by both dismal stretches and lengthy injury bouts that call into question just how high his ceiling truly is. He serves as a bit of a gamble for Vegas, but the Sin City club seems to enjoy leaning into their hometown’s favorite pastime when it comes to manning the crease. Samsonov certainly brings no more uncertainty to the lineup than Robin Lehner, Marc-Andre Fleury, or Jonathan Quick did before him - and with a much lower-pressure environment than he faced in Toronto, it’s entirely possible that fans will finally get a chance to truly see what he can do.

2024 NHL PLAYOFFS: CULLEN – Fantasy Playoff Pool Strategies and Advice

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 19:35:19 +0000

Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

One of the great features of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is getting involved in playoff pools, the opportunity to start fresh after the conclusion of the regular season.

The challenge for most playoff pools is to get players on teams that will advance the deepest into the postseason, because the more games available to your players, the better chance that they will produce points.

Of course, Connor McDavid will be expected to score more on a per-game basis than Ryan Reaves, but it is a combined source of value, with a player’s production along with their expected games played that leads to playoff pool success.

STRATEGIES FOR PLAYOFF POOLS

Because the playoffs are shorter, with fewer teams, there are different strategies required to build a winning team. A lot of these factors are going to depend on the size of your league and any particular rule requirements.

Sometimes those unique rules can make the league especially fun, but they also have the potential to change priorities and what may or may not be a reasonable approach. Do you need to take a rookie? Does your roster require two defencemen? All of these factors need to be taken into account.

Aside from those unique requirements, though, here are some strategies that tend to pay off when drafting players for a Stanley Cup playoff pool.

DIVERSIFY

While it might be tempting to put all of your eggs in one basket and, say, take six Carolina Hurricanes, there comes a point at which going all-in on one team offers diminishing returns. Assuming that you can’t get every single top scorer from a team that is considered a contender, it will make sense to spread your picks among several teams, at least three or four, generally.

Last season, there were 12 Vegas Golden Knights to record at least 10 points in the playoffs. Full credit to anyone that knew Michael Amadio and Brett Howden would be among the 47 players hitting double digits in playoff points.

Part of the reason to diversify is that you won’t necessarily be dead in the water if one team gets eliminated prematurely. If you picked six Golden Knights last season, for example, it would have likely worked out great. If those six players were Boston Bruins, on the other hand, your team would be done before the end of April.

Because of the uncertainty involved in playoff hockey – upsets happen – spreading your talent among several teams allows your team to remain in contention despite upsets. Furthermore, at some point, it will make sense to consider the top players on a seventh or eighth seed before taking a depth forward on a contender.

The Florida Panthers were supposed to get bounced by the Boston Bruins in the first round of last season’s playoffs, but by the end of the playoffs Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett each had at least 15 points. Those picks can make a massive difference in a pool.

While you are diversifying, avoid picking players that will meet in the first round. Unless it is an extraordinarily deep pool that requires some complicated decisions, there is no value to be found in picking players, knowing that you must lose one after the first round.

The aim is to get your players to play as many games as possible, so the players that get eliminated in the first round must have incredible production to make their selection worthwhile.

STACKING

While it makes sense to spread out picks among several teams, there is also great appeal to finding linemates or players that play on the same power play in order to have the chance to score multiple points on the same goal.

Tkachuk, Verhaeghe and Bennett were prime examples of that last season. Tkachuk would have drawn the most appeal, coming off his second straight 100-point season, but adding one of his linemates even later in the draft would have provided incredible value.

Likewise, Chandler Stephenson contributed 20 points for the Vegas Golden Knights on their run to the Stanley Cup last season. It certainly helped to play regularly with Mark Stone, who also had points on 13 of those goals, raising Stephenson’s production to an elite level.

Finding the player who is in close proximity to the star performer can provide better value because they can often be found several rounds later.

It’s not like Zach Hyman is going to fly under the radar, given how much he plays with Connor McDavid and that he scored 54 goals during the regular season, but Jonathan Drouin is in a nice spot alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen in Colorado.

FIRST-ROUND WINNERS

Given the uncertain nature of picking the right teams to advance, there can be value in securing players from the heavier favorites going into the first round of the playoffs.

Now, that didn’t work out if you were on the Boston Bruins last season, but the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes are both strong favorites going into Round One against the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders, respectively. The Edmonton Oilers also have a decided edge in their matchup against the Los Angeles Kings.

Getting players that have a better than average shot of getting through the first round can help give your playoff pool squad some life. If too many players are in series that might as well be coin flips, you could run the risk of landing on the wrong side of those coin flips.

POWER PLAY IMPORTANCE

In the playoffs, goals are not scored so easily, so when a team gets the man advantage, there is a heightened value on those two minutes. Among the 47 players to record at least 10 points in last season’s playoffs, 23 had at least four power play points.

Finding the right defenseman who is quarterbacking a successful power play can have a massive impact.

Last season, Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers had 17 points in just 12 playoff games and 15 of those points occurred while the Oilers were on the power play! That is an extreme example, but it is the ideal scenario if you happen to hit on the right defenseman on a successful power play.

CONSIDER LATE-SEASON PRODUCTION

A lot of times, overall production can tell the story of a player’s season. Sometimes, though, there is a spike in production that might suggest a player’s value is increasing. Think of Jake Guentzel putting up 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in 17 games for Carolina.

Toronto’s John Tavares had 20 points (10 G, 10 A) in 19 games to finish the season.

Edmonton defenceman Mattias Ekholm recorded 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 19 games after the trade deadline.

Boston’s Pavel Zacha contributed 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 17 games down the stretch.

The Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere had a breakthrough season, and capped it off with 18 points (10 G, 8 A) after the deadline.

On the other hand, players like Evander Kane, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Max Pacioretty, Matt Duchene, and Martin Necas are among those established scorers that struggled to generate points late in the season. That might make those players easier to acquire in playoff pools, but buyer beware!

WATCH FOR INJURIES

It should go without saying that teams will be less than forthcoming with injury news late in the season and into the playoffs, but it is still important to try to decipher which players are going to be healthy enough to contribute.

Oilers superstar Connor McDavid missed some games late in the season, but there seems little reason to believe that he won’t be ready to go for the playoffs.

Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has been out for nearly two months with a lacerated spleen but has returned to practice and, conveniently, appears that he will be ready for the playoffs. Tomas Hertl was injured when the Golden Knights acquired him from San Jose, but he returned late in the season to chip in four points (2 G, 2 A) in six games for Vegas.

Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is still recovering from a broken leg and is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs.

Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko got a couple of starts in the final week of the season but had missed more than a month of action before that.

With all of that preparation, understand that players are going to get hurt in the playoffs and they are likely going to try to play through it, quite possibly to their own detriment. The takeaway is that luck is going to be required for teams to advance and for players to remain healthy enough to produce, so track as much injury information as possible so that you’re not starting at a deficit.

TARGET PLAYOFF PERFORMERS

In the small samples of a playoff season, any number of players can bust out with unsustainable production.

Consider a player like Tyler Bertuzzi, who only played seven games for Boston in last year’s playoffs, but he still had 10 points (5 G, 5 A). For a player who is skating on Auston Matthews’ wing, Bertuzzi might have some added postseason appeal based on what he did last season.

The Kings’ Viktor Arvidsson missed most of this season, but contributed 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 18 games but he also had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in six games in last year’s playoffs.

Dallas’ Roope Hintz has 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 25 playoff games across the past three postseasons.

Boston defenceman Charlie McAvoy has accumulated 22 points (1 G, 21 A) in 24 games over the past three playoffs.

Winner of the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy, Predators centre Ryan O’Reilly is known for his two-way play, but he also has 64 points (24 G, 40 A) in his past 69 playoff games. That’s notably better than his regular season production.

GOALTENDERS MEAN A LOT

The problem with this is that of course goaltenders mean a lot. The issue is figuring out which ones are going to be the difference makers in the playoffs. Good luck knowing ahead of time which ones will be worth the most.

If you knew that Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky would be the standout performers between the pipes in last year’s playoffs, you don’t need anyone’s help to create your playoff fantasy roster.

For the rest, you can look to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a strong playoff track record, including a .924 save percentage in 77 games over the past four playoffs. Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin has a .929 save percentage in 28 games over that span. The Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov has a .922 save percentage in 34 playoff games in that time frame.

Goaltenders matter, not just for points in a playoff pool, but in just determining which team is going to advance. A hot goalie can make a huge difference in a seven-game series, and it is the unpredictability associated with that which makes it worthwhile to hit the playoff pool with a diverse approach.

TAKE A CHANCE

Having given all this advice about preparation and reducing the potential risks, don’t be afraid to swing for the fences with a late-round pick.

In recent years, players like Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev, Artturi Lehkonen, and Max Domi have had big playoff performances, and they could be found late in playoff drafts. It will be so much more rewarding to hit on one of those players if you’re willing to make a play for potential.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the playoff race – Teams with favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Mar 2024 14:07:22 +0000

Last week I touched on Detroit’s losing streak, but the Red Wings’ situation has since stabilized. The Red Wings have won three of their past four games and earned a 6-3 victory in a key contest against the Islanders on Thursday. The Red Wings (36-28-6) now have a three-point edge over Washington (33-26-9) in the battle for the second wild-card spot, though Washington has two games in hand, so Detroit still has no margin for error.

At this stage, it looks like the fight for the final playoff seed in the East will come down to Detroit and Washington, but the Islanders (29-25-15), New Jersey (34-32-5), Buffalo (33-33-5) and even Pittsburgh (30-29-9) all have an outside chance of squeaking into the playoffs. Would it be shocking if, say, the Penguins earned a postseason berth? Absolutely, but it’s at least a mathematic possibility at the time of writing.

The final wild-card slot in the Western Conference is slightly more secure. Vegas (37-25-7) has a four-point edge over St. Louis (37-30-3) and a five-point lead over Minnesota (34-28-8) despite playing in one game less than either team. The Golden Knights likely still need to be solid down the stretch to secure their playoff berth, but at least they have a bit of breathing room.

The Blues and Wild are Vegas’ only real competition, but there is still an outside chance of a Cinderella story involving Calgary (33-30-5) or Seattle (28-28-12).

The Golden Knights still also have a path to earn the third seed in the Pacific Division over Los Angeles (36-22-11), though I’d almost say it doesn’t matter. Getting the third seed would put the Golden Knights on track to face Edmonton in the first round instead of Winnipeg, Colorado, Dallas or Vancouver. All five of those potential adversaries are great, so Vegas will have a tough first round either as a wild-card team or as the third seed in the Pacific Division.

Either way, the battle for the last playoff spots should be fun.

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal (1) in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks on January 24, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Anaheim Ducks - TUE @ SEA, THU @ SEA, SAT @ EDM, SUN @ VAN (BTB)

Anaheim is set to play on the road all of next week. They have back-to-back contests against Seattle on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by games in Edmonton on Saturday and Vancouver on Sunday. It’s certainly not an easy schedule, especially on the back half, but the Ducks are one of the few teams scheduled to play four games, so they’re still worthy of mention.

Trevor Zegras hasn’t been in the lineup since Jan. 9 because of an ankle injury, but he has been able to resume practicing without restriction, which suggests that he’s close to returning. After exceeding the 60-point milestone in each of his previous two campaigns, he has just four goals and seven points in 20 outings this year. There’s a good chance he’ll at least be able to finish the year on a positive note, but regardless of what happens, it’s important you remember him for next season’s fantasy drafts. The 23-year-old forward should enjoy a comeback campaign, provided he gets better luck on the injury front.

The 2024-25 campaign should also be one of progress for Leo Carlsson, who has recorded nine goals and 24 points in 43 games as a rookie this season. In the meantime, though, he suffered a lower-body injury Thursday, so his status for next week’s contests is undetermined. If he can’t play then Isac Lundestrom might serve in a top-six capacity, but honestly rather than that be an opportunity for Lundestrom, it would just highlight the sorry state of the Ducks. The 24-year-old has just six points (four goals) in 34 contests this year and likely won’t do much offensively even if he moves up to the second line.

At least they have goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has done alright lately, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .916 save percentage over his past eight games. That’s worlds better than John Gibson’s 5.80 GAA (yes, really) and .833 save percentage in his past four outings. Given the disparity in their play, Dostal should get the majority of the remaining starts.

Buffalo Sabres – WED VS OTT, FRI VS NJD, SAT VS TOR (BTB)

The Sabres are likely to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive campaign, extending their record for the longest postseason drought in NHL history. However, they still have an outside shot of squeaking into the playoffs. In order to keep that hope alive, they’ll likely need to win all three of their contests against Ottawa on Wednesday, New Jersey on Friday and Toronto on Saturday. It’s a tall order, but at least the Sabres will have the home-ice advantage in all those games.

With Buffalo’s postseason hopes all but dashed, Jeff Skinner will likely have to wait even longer to make his first playoff appearance. The 31-year-old is approaching 1,000 career regular-season contests. This hasn’t been his best campaign, but Skinner has been alright with 24 goals and 45 points in 63 outings. He also earned his seventh career hat trick Monday when he led Buffalo in its 6-2 victory over Seattle.

Tage Thompson is surely hoping he won’t have to wait nearly as long as Skinner to get into the playoffs. However, if Thompson had played like he did in 2022-23 (47 goals, 94 points), perhaps the Sabres’ fortunes would have been different this campaign. Instead, he’s been alright, but not great with 21 goals and 43 points through 60 outings. The 27-year-old might end the season on a positive note, though. He’s on a four-game scoring streak in which Thompson has provided a goal and six points.

Meanwhile, Bowen Byram is just 22, but his name is already on the Cup thanks to his time with the Avalanche. Now a member of the Sabres, Byram is playing a prominent role and has taken advantage of that opportunity. He’s recorded three goals, six points, 17 blocks and 17 hits in eight contests while averaging 23:53 of ice time. Byram has even averaged a healthy 2:39 with the man advantage as a member of the Sabres, though the presence of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power means the fight for power-play ice time will always be fierce among Buffalo defensemen.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ ARI, THU @ PIT, SAT VS PIT

This will mark the Blue Jackets’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth. Nothing they do now will alter the fact that it’s been a rough campaign, but they can at least end things on a positive note. It helps that they’ll be facing other non-playoff teams next week – they’ll play in Arizona on Tuesday, in Pittsburgh on Thursday and then host the Penguins on Saturday.

Johnny Gaudreau isn’t the reason Columbus will be missing the playoffs, though it is true he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His 55 points (11 goals) through 69 outings, would mark the lowest point-per-game pace of his career if the season ended now. However, Gaudreau has contributed a goal and six points in his past four contests, so the stage is set for him to finish the campaign on a positive note.

The same might be true of Alexander Nylander, who has eight goals and 11 points in 13 contests since being acquired by Columbus from Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old forward was held off the scoresheet in his previous two games, and it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to wonder if this is the right time to jump ship, especially because he doesn’t have a track record of success beyond his recent stretch. Personally, I recommend waiting a little longer though to see if his production picks up again. Keep in mind, Nylander is being utilized on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit, which are roles that he hasn’t enjoyed for any noteworthy stretch until now, so there might be more to his production than a mere hot streak. I’m not saying that his new role has transformed him into a superstar, but he might still do well enough to be fantasy relevant the rest of the way.

Daniil Tarasov might have value going forward too. The 24-year-old has been subpar in 2023-24 with a 7-9-3 record, 3.20 GAA and .903 save percentage across 20 appearances, but he’s been far better dating back to Feb. 21, posting a 2.30 GAA and .934 save percentage over nine games. His strong play has led to the Blue Jackets increasingly using him over Elvis Merzlikins.

Ottawa Senators – WED @ BUF, THU VS CHI, SAT @ WPG

Ottawa will begin next week with a breather before playing in Buffalo on Wednesday. The Senators will then host Chicago on Thursday and play in Winnipeg on Saturday. Like Ottawa, the Sabres and Blackhawks are having campaigns and aren’t expected to make the playoffs (Chicago has been mathematically eliminated while Buffalo has just a fringe chance of a wild-card spot), so those are two winnable games.

Ottawa is in a four-way tie for 28th defensively with 3.59 goals per game despite having an xGA/60 of 2.94, which ties the Senators for 11th overall. Those two stats in combination suggest is Ottawa’s defense is underrated and has been made to look bad this year due to poor goaltending. A case could be made that Joonas Korpisalo has been this year’s worst starter, ranking last in Goals Saved Above Expected at minus-19.4. In terms of his base stats line, he has a 15-21-4 record, 3.37 GAA and .887 save percentage in 44 contests. While it would be an oversimplification to say that Ottawa isn’t making the playoffs because of Korpisalo, it is fair to say that his terrible play has been a key factor.

Unfortunately, it seems the Senators overvalued his strong 2022-23 campaign when they inked Korpisalo to a five-year contract. While he had a Goals Saved Above Expected of 12.7 last season, he finished in the negatives in each campaign from 2017-18 through 2021-22, so performing below average relative to the team in front of him appears to be the norm for Korpisalo rather than the exception. This is all to say that if you’re looking for the 29-year-old goaltender to rebound in 2024-25, you’re making a risky bet that likely won’t pay off.

Not that Anton Forsberg, who has a 12-12-0 record, 3.42 GAA and .885 save percentage in 25 outings in 2023-24, is good either. Forsberg is signed through 2024-25 at a cap hit of $2.75 million, so Ottawa might have this unfortunate duo again next year. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs in 2024-25 either.

That’s unfortunate for Claude Giroux, who is 36 years old and consequently running out of chances to make another run at the Cup. If the direction of the Senators has been weighing on him, though, he hasn’t let that bleed into his game. He’s still provided a goal and five points over his past six contests, giving him 19 goals and 58 points through 68 outings overall. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran finish the season on a high note. That should also be true of Brady Tkachuk, who has provided four goals and five points over his past four contests.

The goaltending clearly needs work, but with players like Giroux and Tkachuk leading the forward corps, at least that aspect of the Senators is strong.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ NYR, THU @ MTL, SAT VS CHI

The Flyers are set to play on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Canadiens on Thursday before hosting the Blackhawks on Saturday. While the Rangers are a tough adversary, Philadelphia has a golden chance to collect four points against Montreal and Chicago as it looks to secure its playoff spot.

The biggest story in Philadelphia is coach John Tortorella scratching Sean Couturier for the Flyers’ 4-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday and 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina on Thursday. This comes after a stretch in which Couturier registered just three assists and had a minus-13 rating over 14 games from Feb. 15-March 19. He also has only six points (one goal) in his last 23 contests, undoing his solid start to the campaign -- 30 points (10 markers) through his first 41 appearances.

Maybe this time off will allow him to reset and come back stronger. He’ll certainly be a player to watch closely next week because when Couturier’s at his best, he’s a strong top-line option.

In the meantime, Owen Tippett has been leading the Flyers’ attack. He has three goals and eight points over his past five games, bringing him up to 25 goals and 46 points through 66 outings this year. The 25-year-old is just two goals and three points shy of his career highs.

Morgan Frost is also on a five-game scoring streak, totaling three goals and seven points in that span. He hasn’t had an amazing campaign overall (12 goals and 38 points in 59 games), but the 24-year-old has been centering the top line and serving on the first power-play unit during Couturier’s absence. Given how well he’s done in that role, Frost might continue to feature prominently even after Couturier slides back into the lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CBJ, SAT @ CBJ

The Penguins have faded out of the playoff picture at this point and things aren’t going to get any easier when they host the Hurricanes on Tuesday. The silver lining is Pittsburgh does have a home-and-away series against the lowly Blue Jackets, which will take place Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Michael Bunting, who Pittsburgh acquired from Carolina in the Jake Guentzel trade, seems to be settling in with his new team. He’s on a three-game scoring streak and has recorded a point in four of his last five contests, totaling two goals and two assists in that span. He’s seeing time on the top power-play unit and alongside Evgeni Malkin at even strength, so Bunting seems set to have a solid finish to the campaign.

Bryan Rust is looking to finish on a high note too. He’s been limited to 48 games this season due to injury, but he has been effective when healthy with 21 goals and 41 points. The 31-year-old has done particularly well recently, providing three goals and five points across his last four contests.

Lastly, while it doesn’t have fantasy relevance, you might want to pay attention to Jeff Carter. The 39-year-old is dealing with an upper-body issue, but when he returns, he’ll likely be playing out the last games of his career. While it’s possible he’ll pursue a new contract once his present one expires this summer, he likely won’t find any takers. He’s been held to nine goals and 12 points in 61 outings this campaign. Still, Carter has had a storied career, scoring 440 goals in 1,310 career games and playing a significant role in Los Angeles’ Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014.

Seattle Kraken – TUE VS ANA, THU VS ANA, SAT VS DAL

Seattle will start the week with a pair of favorable home matchups against the lowly Ducks on Tuesday and Thursday. After that two-game series, the Kraken will host the Stars on Saturday.

Vince Dunn hasn’t played since March 4 due to an upper-body injury, and he doesn’t appear to be close to returning. He’s been a key offensive defenseman for the Kraken this campaign, providing 11 goals and 45 points in 57 games. Due to Dunn’s absence, Brian Dumoulin has seen an uptick in even-strength minutes, while Ryker Evans was summoned from AHL Coachella Valley and has received a power-play role.

Evans has done decently during Dunn’s absence, recording three assists -- all with the man advantage -- in the last seven games. He’s also played with a physical edge, accumulating eight PIM and 16 hits in the same span. Once Dunn returns, Evans might lose his spot in the lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to make those kinds of contributions until Dunn’s back.

Seattle’s forward corps hasn’t done great this campaign and Seattle’s attack has been particularly lackluster recently, totaling just five goals in four games from March 14-21. Still, Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a rare bright spot with a goal and three points during that stretch. He also has five goals and eight points over his last 11 contests to put his cold spell from Jan. 30-Feb. 24 (one assist in eight outings) well behind him.

As poor as the Kraken’s offense has been, Anaheim has done even worse, ranking 30th offensively with just 2.49 goals per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord split the two-game set against the Ducks, and both netminders would be a good play versus Anaheim.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ STL, TUE @ NAS, (BTB), THU @ WPG, SAT @ MIN

The Golden Knights are one of the few teams set to play four games next week, though they’ll be on the road for that stretch. They’ll play in St. Louis on Monday, Nashville on Tuesday, Winnipeg on Thursday and Minnesota on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but the Golden Knights’ hold on the second wild-card spot is loose, so they’ll need to find a way to win a good chunk of those contests.

Their pursuit of a playoff berth has been complicated by Adin Hill, who has struggled mightily with a 3.90 GAA and an .872 save percentage over his last seven games. By contrast, Logan Thompson has saved 41 of 43 shots (.953 save percentage) over his last two contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vegas pivot to Thompson, at least in the short term. Earlier in the campaign, the Golden Knights might have been more open to riding out Hill’s cold spell in the hopes that he’d rebound, but they don’t really have that luxury at this stage.

In terms of offense, it’s been defenseman Shea Theodore who has led the charge. The 28-year-old has collected 15 assists in 14 outings since returning from an upper-body injury. That’s propelled him to four goals and 33 points across 34 outings in 2023-24. Theodore has missed significant portions of the last two campaigns due to injury, but he would likely breach the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career if he manages to stay healthy next season.

Meanwhile, blueliner Noah Hanifin seems to be settling in fine with Vegas. He has four assists, a plus-3 rating, 10 blocks and 10 hits in seven contests since being acquired from the Flames. Hanifin’s also averaging 22:09 of ice time with Vegas, though he’s only on the second power-play unit, which limits his offensive potential a bit.

NHL: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 22nd to 28th) – Oilers dominating – Teams and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 17:48:45 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) after scoring a goal during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on January 21, 2023 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton is playing some of its best hockey since the start of the Connor McDavid era, which is quite the turnaround from its 2-9-1 start to the campaign. After earning a 4-2 victory over Seattle on Thursday, the Oilers have now won 12 straight, bringing their record up to 25-15-1.

Let’s start with the winning streak itself. Already the longest in Edmonton’s history, it’s also in an eight-way tie for 12th on the all-time list. Two more victories would put the Oilers in a three-way tie for fifth place while the record stands at 17, which was set by Pittsburgh from March 9-April 10, 1993.

But it’s more than just the fact that Edmonton’s winning, it’s how the Oilers are doing so. Edmonton eked out one-goal wins on the road against Chicago, Detroit and Montreal from Jan. 9-13, and then the Oilers overcame 2-0 deficits to beat Toronto and Seattle in their last two contests. While you can argue the games being close or necessitating a comeback is a sign of weakness, it also shows resilience. Especially this deep into the streak, it demonstrates that Edmonton hasn’t become complacent. Perhaps it comes from hard lessons learned during the shaky start to the campaign, perhaps it’s thanks to the teachings of new head coach Kris Knoblauch, who has now started his NHL career with a 22-6-0 record, but whatever the cause, it’s something Edmonton will aim to hold onto during the second half of the campaign and into the playoffs -- a postseason run that seemed unlikely to happen back in early November.

The run also speaks to how much the team has grown beyond being just about McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. They’ve done their part to be sure -- McDavid has 59 points in 39 contests while Draisaitl has 50 in 41 -- but for the first time since 2015-16, someone other than McDavid or Draisaitl might win the team’s goal-scoring race. Zach Hyman currently has a comfortable lead on both of them with 27 tallies (along with 17 assists) in 40 contests. Edmonton also has four players past the 40-point mark while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on the cusp of making it five with 11 goals and 39 points in 41 outings. Contrast that with even just two years ago (2021-22) when McDavid and Draisaitl finished with 123 and 110 points, respectively, but no other player had more than 54.

On top of that, Edmonton has been one of the best defensive teams dating back to Nov. 11, allowing just 2.45 goals per game.

Of course, this discussion would have been very different two and a half months ago, and it might change again in April. For now, at least, the Oilers have manufactured optimism where there was little before, and doing so has been a true team effort.

Arizona Coyotes – MON VS PIT, WED @ FLA, THU @ TBL (BTB), SAT @ CAR

The Coyotes will start the week at home against Pittsburgh before beginning a three-game road trip that will take them to Florida on Wednesday, Tampa Bay on Thursday and Carolina on Saturday. Of all the teams highlighted this week, Arizona arguably has one of the toughest batches of opponents, but the busy schedule still makes the Coyotes worthy of note.

Nick Schmaltz (undisclosed) might miss time next week after getting hurt Tuesday. If he does, then Dylan Guenther might get plenty of work. The 20-year-old logged a season-high 18:06 of ice time Thursday, including 2:39 with the man advantage. Guenther has two goals and three points in six contests in 2023-24, but he has plenty of offensive upside, which he’s showcased in the AHL this season, contributing 10 goals and 28 points in 29 outings with Tucson.

Schmaltz’s absence would also put more pressure on Clayton Keller, but he seems up to the task. Keller has 17 goals and 39 points in 43 appearances in 2023-24 and has been especially good lately, providing four goals and eight points over his past six contests.

In net, it will be interesting to see how Karel Vejmelka does this week. Vejmelka started the campaign splitting the goaltending duties fairly evenly with Connor Ingram. However, Ingram has taken a bigger share of the duties as the season’s progressed, and that process has been accelerated by Vejmelka’s recent struggles -- he's recorded a 4.88 GAA and an .852 save percentage over his past four contests. With a back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday, Vejmelka should get at least one start, but if he continues to flounder like he has, then Ingram might cement his hold on the top job.

Boston Bruins – MON VS WPG, WED VS CAR, THU @ OTT (BTB), SAT @ PHI

Boston is set to host the Jets on Monday and the Hurricanes on Wednesday. After that stretch, they’ll have games in Ottawa on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday. Three of those four contests are against playoff contenders, but the Senators are in the Eastern Conference basement, so that’s an extremely favorable matchup.

The Bruins have gotten Linus Ullmark back from a lower-body injury, so he should resume splitting the netminding duties with Jeremy Swayman. It would not be surprising to see each goaltender take two of the starts this week.

Brandon Carlo (upper body) is also getting close to returning. With two goals and 10 points in 39 contests this season, he’s not a great fantasy option, but he does have some utility in certain formats thanks to his plus-15 rating, 22 PIM, 51 hits and 71 blocks. Carlo’s anticipated return might also push Mason Lohrei or Parker Wotherspoon out of the lineup.

When it comes to hot players, David Pastrnak has been playing out of his mind, providing nine goals and 19 points over his past 11 contests. Keep an eye on who is playing with him because that does change. Presently, Charlie Coyle is centering his line, which led to him collecting a pair of assists on Pastrnak goals Thursday. Coyle is up to 15 markers and 34 points in 44 appearances this year, including five goals and 13 points over his past 12 outings.

Calgary Flames – TUE VS STL, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS CHI

The Flames have just three games ahead of them, but all three games are at home against teams unlikely to make the payoffs. They’ll get the toughest matchup out of the way first when they host the Blues on Tuesday. Afterward, Calgary will face the lowly Blue Jackets on Thursday and Blackhawks on Saturday.

The big X-Factor is whether Jacob Markstrom (lower body) will be healthy for that stretch after missing his second straight contest on Thursday. If he can’t, then Dan Vladar is worthy of a pickup, provided he’s available. Sure, Vladar has had a rough campaign with a 3.35 GAA and an .885 save percentage in 15 contests, but none of the Flames’ upcoming opponents are particularly good offensively, and Chicago in particular ranks 31st with just 2.18 goals per game, so this might be a good stretch for Vladar.

Up front, Blake Coleman is continuing to excel with five goals and eight points over his last five contests, elevating him to 20 tallies and 38 points in 45 appearances this season. Just two of his points have come on the power play, but that’s largely because he’s averaged just 0:47 with the man advantage. However, his sustained success has helped him secure a regular role on the second power-play unit, so we might see him be a bit more productive on special teams in the second half.

Yegor Sharangovich is also on a crazy run with seven goals over his past five games. Through 45 contests this year, he has 19 goals and 32 points. His hot streak has likely ensured that he’ll finish the campaign with a new personal best in goals (presently his career high is 24 from 2021-22), but it should be cautioned that he’s a somewhat streaky goal scorer and this hot run might be followed by a prolonged slump.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ EDM, THU @ CGY, SAT @ VAN, SUN @ SEA

Columbus’ upcoming schedule is far from ideal, but at least it’s eventful with four games on the docket next week. The Blue Jackets will play in Edmonton on Tuesday, Calgary on Thursday, Vancouver on Saturday and Seattle on Sunday.

The big news regarding the Blue Jackets revolves around goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who requested a trade. He hasn’t exactly excelled this campaign with a 3.22 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 24 contests, which is a problem given his $5.4 million cap hit through 2026-27. At a surface glance, that might shy off some teams, but an argument can be made that Merzlikins has been better than his numbers suggest.

Columbus ranks 31st with 3.51 xGA/60, which suggests the team in front of him has been terrible defensively. If you look at Merzlikins specifically, he has 0.9 Goals Saved Above Expected, so by that metric, he’s been modestly above average. A trade to a better defensive team -- aka nearly any other squad -- would bolster Merzlikins’ numbers, so there’s an argument to be made that this would be a good time to consider getting him cheap. Keep in mind, though, that it’s a risky strategy because a trade isn’t guaranteed.

Adam Boqvist might also be a buy-low candidate. Injuries have limited him to seven assists in 17 contests this season, but he’s healthy now and has registered four assists over his past four appearances.

You could also consider taking a chance on Dmitri Voronkov next week. The 23-year-old rookie scored twice against Vancouver on Monday, bringing him up to nine goals and 22 points in 38 outings. Although his playing time has been somewhat limited in 2023-24 (an average of 13:18), he has been getting regular minutes on the Blue Jackets’ top power-play unit lately.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS CHI, SAT VS NSH

As noted above, with a 4-2 victory over Seattle on Thursday, Edmonton extended its winning streak to 12 games. The Oilers still need to face Calgary on Saturday, so the streak might not be active by the start of next week, but regardless they’re red hot and have three extremely winnable matchups coming up. The Oilers will host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Predators on Saturday. Of those three teams, Nashville is the only one with playoff hopes.

Stuart Skinner improved to 20-9-1 with a 2.59 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 31 outings this season. His GAA and save percentage have been heavily skewed downwards due to his first eight games in which he posted a 3.87 GAA and an .854 save percentage. More recently, he’s held the competition to two or fewer goals in each of his last eight starts, making him one of the hottest goaltenders in the league.

Of course, he’s no longer available in most fantasy leagues. One player who might be available, though, is Warren Foegele. The 27-year-old forward has been inconsistent this season, but he’s been alright overall with nine goals and 23 points in 41 contests. More importantly, Foegele is currently playing alongside Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane and should be in line for a strong week so long as he maintains that spot.

Florida Panthers – MON @ NSH, WED VS ARI, FRI @ PIT, SAT @ NYI (BTB)

The Panthers will begin the week in Nashville for a contest Monday before returning home to play against the Coyotes on Wednesday. Florida will play on the road against the Penguins and Islanders on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Those adversaries are middling squads in the conversation for the playoffs but are not presently viewed as serious Cup contenders.

Florida was also highlighted last week, and I noted at the time how Sam Reinhart’s sky-high shooting percentage might not be as huge of a red flag as it initially seems due to his tendency to be economical about when he fires the puck. Reinhart’s shooting percentage has since climbed higher from 27.5 to 27.7 and his goal-scoring streak stands at eight straight.

With 33 tallies in 44 games, Reinhart is now on pace to surpass the 60-goal milestone, and while I don’t expect him to do that, 50 doesn’t seem like a stretch at this point.

Meanwhile, Matthew Tkachuk is also having a great time, collecting seven goals and 20 points over his past 12 outings. That gives him 12 goals and 42 points in 44 contests despite a stretch from Nov. 16-Dec. 14 in which he had just two goals and three points through 14 contests. That slump aside, Tkachuk has been a very consistent scoring threat over the last few years, so I don’t expect him to have another cold spell at that level this season.

You might want to keep goaltender Anthony Stolarz in the back of your mind. He’s been a solid backup this campaign with a 6-3-2 record, 2.22 GAA and .913 save percentage in 12 appearances in 2023-24 and will likely start in one half of Florida’s back-to-back set against Pittsburgh and the Islanders.

Los Angeles Kings – MON VS SJS, WED VS BUF, FRI @ COL, SUN @ STL

The Kings will host the Sharks on Monday and the Sabres on Wednesday before their road games against Colorado on Friday and St. Louis on Sunday. The Avalanche are a top-tier team, but the Sharks sit in the NHL’s basement while the remaining two squads aren’t in playoff positions.

LA might still have a difficult time, though, after dropping 10 of their last 11 games. The Kings could really use more out of Pierre-Luc Dubois in particular. He has nine goals and 19 points in 42 contests after scoring 27 goals and 63 points in 73 outings with the Jets in 2022-23. That’s certainly not what the Kings had in mind when they traded for him over the summer.

It’s a situation that might not improve, though. Dubois averaged 18:27 of ice time with Winnipeg last season, but that’s dropped to 15:52 with the Kings. The problem is that the competition up the middle is fierce between him, Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar, which has led to Dubois serving in a third-line capacity. On top of that, Dubois is presently on the second power-play unit and has just two points with the man advantage after finishing 2022-23 with 23. Unless something changes, Dubois’ second half could very well be about as unproductive as the first.

Quinton Byfield has a better shot at improving his fortunes. He has just four goals and nine points over his past 19 contests, which stands in contrast to his eight goals and 21 points across his first 23 games of the campaign. It’s not unusual for young forwards to be particularly streaky, though, and the 21-year-old is still a member of the top line and first power-play unit, so it should just be a matter of time before he starts heating up again.

Cam Talbot should bounce back too. Although he has a solid 14-11-5 record, 2.43 GAA and .915 save percentage in 30 appearances, the 36-year-old goaltender has hit a rough patch in which he’s surrendered at least three goals in each of his last five outings. The Sharks rank at the bottom of the league offensively, though (1.98 goals per game), so that might be an opportunity for him to snap out of that cold spell.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ NJD, TUE @ NYI (BTB), FRI @ NYR, SAT @ DET (BTB)

Vegas will be on the road all next week with games against the Devils on Monday, the Islanders on Tuesday, the Rangers on Friday and the Red Wings on Saturday. Injuries have significantly hampered the Devils, so this isn’t quite as tough a stretch as it would have been earlier in the season.

Speaking of injuries, Vegas is likely to get Adin Hill back at some point next week. He hasn’t played since Dec. 17 but was fantastic before getting hurt, posting a 10-2-2 record, 1.93 GAA and .933 save percentage in 15 appearances this season. Once he returns, Logan Thompson will go from starting in the vast majority of games to around 40-50 percent of Vegas’ contests, so his fantasy value will naturally take a bit of a hit.

However, Vegas is going to continue to lean heavily on Chandler Stephenson for at least a little while longer. Jack Eichel (knee) is set to miss four-to-six weeks while William Karlsson (lower body) isn’t expected to return before the All-Star break. Once they’re all healthy, Stephenson might slide down to the third line, but for now, he’s the team’s headline center.

Nicolas Roy is also seeing increased responsibilities because of the injuries. Although he averaged 14:44 of ice time over his first 29 contests this season, Roy has logged over 16 minutes in each of his last four games. The 26-year-old is starting to take advantage of the opportunity, registering three assists over his past two appearances.

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – December 4th to December 10th – Senators Challenges Grow – Chicago, Colorado, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal among teams to target.

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:17:11 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.

Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.

It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.

Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.

Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.

Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.

The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.

It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.

The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.

Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.

Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.

Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.

Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.

In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.

Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.

In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.

Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.

Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.

In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.

The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.

Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.

The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.

I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.

In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.

Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.

Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.

We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.

Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.

It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.