Aleksandr Barkov – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: SZNAJDER – What Happened to the Florida Panthers?

Corey Sznajder — Thu, 12 Jan 2023 20:00:47 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - SEPTEMBER 29: Aaron Ekblad #5 of the Florida Panthers skates during the game between the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, FL on September 29, 2022. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

41 points. That is how far the Panthers have fallen this year. Nobody expected a repeat performance of their remarkable 122-point season, but it was going to take a major fall from grace for them to miss the playoffs. Even with the roster turnover, coaching changes and general regression expected, they still had one of the better forward corps in the league on paper, a full season of a presumably healthy Aaron Ekblad and a potential building block in net with Spencer Knight.

As of this article, they currently sit outside a playoff spot by six points with no games in hand and over half of their schedule played. To put it into perspective, they need to play at a 117-point pace for the rest of the year to get to a point where they can even be in a position to make the playoffs. It’s not an impossible task, but it’s a steep hill to climb when you consider that they already play in the tougher conference and have fallen behind up-and-coming teams like Buffalo.

Some of this was expected. After all, they aren’t the first team to slip into mediocrity following an outstanding season and they experienced more turnover both on and off the ice compared to your typical playoff team. Matthew Tkachuk has been a fantastic addition but losing Mackenzie Weegar while not acquiring a suitable replacement for him left a void on their blue line that neither veteran signing Marc Staal nor waiver claim Josh Mahura can fill.

Mason Marchment leaving for Dallas and Anthony Duclair tearing his Achilles in the off-season puts a dent into one of the league’s most prolific forward corps. They still have plenty of firepower, but the stability they had with their top-nine isn’t there anymore and injuries to the likes of Sasha Barkov and Anton Lundell have forced them to dig deep into their farm system for reinforcements. Then there’s pieces of “expected regression” like reaching overtime in only five games compared to 22 last season, which adds up in the standings over time.

The big scapegoat, however, is head coach Paul Maurice. The decision to hire him after the abrupt firing of Andrew Brunette was controversial to begin with. Brunette’s inexperience showed in the playoffs, but there was some oil and water dynamic in going from him to Maurice. The Panthers of the four years were a team built around offense and always looking to push the pace of the game. It was normal for them to rack up 40+ shots a night. Compare that to Maurice’s Jets whose successful years were built on the back of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, opportunistic scoring and playing above the puck and it’s easy to see why he wouldn’t be a great fit with this roster.

Talent usually dictates a team’s results over systems and the optimistic view is that Maurice’s first year in Florida would go similar to the 2017-18 Jets where they had one of the deepest forward corps in the league. The one caveat is that this team had a solid foundation on their blue line with Byfuglien, Trouba, Enstrom and Morrissey while Florida has Ekblad, Forsling and an emerging player in Brandon Montour. The final spot in their top-four has been a merry-go-round for most of the year and it turned into more of a bumper car ride when Aaron Ekblad sustained yet another injury. Maurice experienced a similar type of hemorrhage on his Winnipeg teams, but he lost players over years instead of all at once. The worse the blue line got, the more reliant they were on their goaltending and scoring off the rush to win them games with their five-on-five play deteriorating to the bottom of the league by 2020.

The funny thing is that the Jets were usually good enough to get into the playoffs while he was there. They made the post-season (in some way shape or form) in each of his last four seasons before resigning last winter. This Florida team is on track to miss the playoffs and their problems are a pretty complex riddle in their own right. Let’s start off with the fact that their five-on-five play, on the whole, has actually been pretty good. The Panthers haven’t had any issue with driving play this year and they’re actually scoring more goals than they’re giving up. Yes, you read that correctly. Florida has the 12^th best goal differential in the league at five-on-five and the 7^th best Expected Goals Percentage in the league according to Natural Stat Trick. Winning the five-on-five battle but getting bad results usually means you aren’t scoring goals or are getting bad goaltending. Bobrovsky and Knight haven’t been great, but their numbers are far from worst in the league.

The answer then is usually bad special teams. Both Florida’s power play and penalty kill units are middle of the pack in terms of how many goals they score and give up. That’s not great, but it doesn’t explain everything. Although it is kind of wild to see that they’ve lost six games while tying or out-scoring their opponents at five-on-five. It does make you wonder if they’re having a few games where they beat up on bad teams and are breaking even or worse against everyone else. There is something to be said about sticking to your team’s system when the games are “easy” and you’re playing with a lead while you’re more prone to mistakes if you’re trying to rally. This Florida team was notorious for their comebacks last year and perhaps this is just regression catching up to them. Micah Blake McCurdy’s heat maps paint an interesting picture of what might be going on systematically.

Stats courtesy of HockeyViz

Basically, this shows the threat of a scoring or giving up a goal depending on the game state. When the score is tied, Florida is humming. They’re all over the offensive zone and getting to the net while not sacrificing much for defense. When they’re up by one, they still press but give up a lot. Similar to what they were last year but a little more run-and-gun. When they’re trailing, however, is the kicker. They’re considerably less dangerous when they’re trying to come from behind in close games. They’re also not exactly going into a shell either. This could mean a lot of things. Maybe they’re pressing and their defensemen are making poorly timed pinches, or their forwards are trying to cheat by flying the zone. The giant red blob at the left point in the “Down by 1” map probably means those risks aren’t paying off because that’s a very low-percentage area of the ice to be attacking from.

So, either the Panthers are either being coached to play totally differently based on the score, their roster can’t keep their heads on straight whenever the score isn’t tied or play their worst shifts of the game after either scoring or giving up a goal. That or it’s a classic case of a messy roster struggling when the situation isn’t in their control. Either way, it could explain their good and bad games are on such extreme ends of the spectrum.

Looking at some of the tape and microstats provides some further insight into why this is happening.

Staying On Script

What makes this a frustrating problem for the Panthers is that you still see parts of what made last year’s team so special. Their forwards can still attack off the rush with ease and follow-up to get sustained scoring chance. Carter Verhaeghe is poised to set career highs across the board while becoming more of a threat on the power play and Matthew Tkachuk has made losing Jonathan Huberdeau an afterthought. They even lead the league in shots on goal per game, so the offense isn’t an issue.

When you look at the rate the Panthers forwards are creating scoring chances off the rush, it looks like they have the firepower to keep up with most teams. Even on the backend they’ve had Brandon Montour to replace some of the offense they lost with Mackenzie Weegar. So, what’s the issue? It comes back to how this team’s makeup changes depending on the score of the game. Early in games, they play similar to how they did the last couple of years. Controlling play, attacking in layers, using the defense as trailers off the rush.

This isn’t to say the game is “easier” in these situations, but there is something to be said about it being more comfortable playing your game when there’s less pressure. Florida seems to thrive in these situations, and you can see some of the wrinkles Maurice has added in for better or worse. A common theme of his Winnipeg teams was that the forwards had a major role in the defensive zone, especially after losing Jacob Trouba. They were responsible for leading more breakouts, killing more plays along the wall and getting pucks out. It’s not the worst way to play if you don’t trust your defense because they can either challenge outside the dots off rushes if there’s back-pressure from the forwards or stay home and patrol one area of the ice and just keep the play in front of them. Sometimes this works and you see Florida eventually settle into their game when things are rolling for them, much like they were in the first half of their 5-4 win over Colorado the other night.

This was an interesting game because you got a glimpse of almost every phase of Panthers hockey this year. They took a 4-1 lead into the third period, were firmly in control for most of the game and then Colorado scored twice within 30 seconds to make it a dreaded one-goal game. This is where Florida games turn into firewagon hockey going by the heat maps posted above and the sequence leading up to the game-tying goal shows one of Florida’s main issues, going off-script.

A little context here, this is right after a stretch of four-on-four hockey and Florida is setup for a controlled breakout off a line change. They’re a bit shell-shocked right now because Colorado just cut the score from 4-1 to 4-3 and they’ve played most of the period in their own zone. Forsling waits for Marc Staal to set a pick and tries to carry the puck out of the zone, only to be met by Colorado forward Arturri Lehkonen at his own blue line which allows the Avs to re-enter the zone.

The turnover is the root but not the worst part of this sequence. It’s how both defensemen retreat to the front of the net (presumably reverting to a man-to-man) while letting both Avs forwards front the shot and screen their goaltender for the game-tying tally. The initial shot is a low-percentage one, but the defensemen are stuck in a lose-lose situation because they’re already boxed out and the forwards are kind of just shadowing the Avs around the perimeter while not applying much pressure. The third clip is a similar sequence and while the Islanders don’t score, they get a golden chance in the slot because the forward in front of the net isn’t boxed out and Florida had one of their own forwards chase the play up high while two other forwards were already covering the points. This could be just poor awareness, lack of communication or general panic, but it’s been something that has plagued Florida whenever they’re up a goal.

Playing down a goal has been even tougher. They have yet to win a game after trailing at the end of any period, which is hard to believe after trademarking the “Comeback Cats” nickname last year. It’s the most perplexing part of this team because they still have the ability to attack off the rush and they should be able to generate some quick strike offense while playing from behind. Instead, they’re the ones chasing the play.

If you’re not a gamer and have any experience playing the EA NHL games online against kids who are really good, this is exactly what it feels like to be the Florida Panthers playing down a goal. It’s the most infuriating game of keep away ever where you never get the puck back and when you do, it’s either turned over or sent to the wrong place. It’s like everyone else is speed skating while you’re still trying to figure out which button is pass and which one is deke.

The worst part for Florida is that it’s not exactly something that can be fixed with a trade or minor roster tweaking. The players just seem to be either out of their depth or unable to adjust once the games get tougher. Yes, mistakes are going to happen, but in that highlight package you saw two defensemen chasing one forward behind a net, botched breakouts with nobody in position to retrieve the puck, defensemen having to stay back because the third forward on the forecheck keeps getting beat by one pass. It’s a cavalcade of mistakes and the roster attrition they’ve had this year explains part of it.

Gustav Forsling has proven to be a good defenseman, but he has to do a lot more work now, particularly with retrieving pucks with Mackenzie Weegar gone. This plus the injury to Aaron Ekblad have pushed his ice-time to the 24–25-minute range, which is reserved for the Erik Karlssons and Cale Makars of the league and while Forsling has come a long way, keeping up with elite forwards while playing those minutes is tough for someone who is more used to playing a second-pair role. You can see in the clips posted earlier how much ground he has to cover and how little room there is for him to make any sort of mistakes compared to when he was playing second-pair minutes.

The same can be said for Brandon Montour, who has the skating to keep up with elite forwards but can get overwhelmed if he’s stuck boxing out a forward in front of the net. Marc Staal hasn’t played top-four minutes since his days in New York and now he’s being asked to be the team’s stay-at-home presence on their second pair. He still has the strength to patrol the front of the net, but his limited skillset puts more pressure on the forwards and Montour to chase down pucks and get the play out of the zone.

It just goes to show how little the margin for error is in the NHL and how quickly mistakes can pile up. Florida wants to play a more well-rounded game this year, but they don’t have a lot of trust in their defense, which leads to some discombobulated breakouts where the forwards are playing too close together or don’t have a passing outlet to attack off the rush with any threat. This leads to a chain reaction of playing in your own zone, one-and-done forays into the offensive zone and games that get away from you. Not every game goes like this, but it’s happened enough to the point where it has torpedoed their season.

With wins in three out of their last four games, things are starting to look up, but the Cats are quickly running out of runway to figure out this conundrum.

NHL Playoff Preview: Florida Panthers (1) vs. New York Islanders(WC1)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Thu, 14 Apr 2016 15:37:58 +0000

Summary: These teams are pretty evenly matched, and we think it will go down to the wire regardless of who wins.

The Panthers have several good, to very good forwards, but none quite as dynamic as John Tavares. The Islanders have a handful of defensemen that are rock solid, but none quite on the same level as Aaron Ekblad.

This series will come come down to goaltending. The Cats have Roberto Luongo between the pipes, and he's coming off a strong regular season. The Isles have Thomas Greiss, and he's not exactly a menacing force.
We think they're really going to miss Jaroslav Halak in this series, and that's why we expect them to lose -- even if we expect them to come very close to winning.

PREDICTION: Panthers in 7

Key Injuries: NYI - Jaroslav Halak, Anders Lee, Mikhail Grabovski, FLA - Vincent Trocheck

Critical Factors: Roberto Luongo is the key here, looking to put past playoff performances behind him (35-19-6, 2.35, 0.922). Aaron Ekblad turned in an impressive sophomore season with 36 points, with positive possession numbers (52.9% Corsi), and a big series will help overcome any advantage Islanders have on defense with it’s solid, experienced core in Boychuk, Leddy and Hamonic, just returning from injury. John Tavares will need to provide some heavy lifting to win the first line matchup, having scored nine points in five games heading into the playoffs, after a uneven season - Jagr, Huberdeau and Barkov have been scoring at a point a game since the all star break and are formidable. Nick Bjugstad will need to fill void left by the injury to Trocheck, and his 25 goals.

Potential Breakout Players: Aaron Ekblad for reasons above .. Aleksandr Barkov has been very hot as of late, ending on a scoring streak of nine games (9-5-6-11) and 31 points in his last 30 games (30-16-15-31) .. Brock Nelson, will earn power play time with Anders Lee broken leg, using his size in front of the net – he will have to discover his scoring touch, which seemingly has deserted him as of late.

Season Matchup: Florida 2 – 1.

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): NYI 49.5% (18^th) FLA 48.7% (20^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): NYI 100.7 (6^th) FLA 102.1 (2^nd)

Power Play (NHL.com): NYI 18.3% (17^th) FLA 16.9% (23^rd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): NYI 84.5% (4^th) FLA 79.5% (24^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.77 (11^th) FLA 2.83 (8^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.57 (13th) FLA 2.44 (7th)

Notes: Neither team is strong in possession, but Islanders hold a big edge in special teams with the 4^th ranked penalty kill, while Florida ranks near the bottom in both categories. Florida is second in the league with a 8.8 Osh%, fourth in OSv%, ranking second in PDO .. is it sustainableÉ

Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes

Robert Howard — Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:59:46 +0000

Paraphrasing Brian Burke, he once famously declared otherwise knowledgeable, experienced GM’s lose their minds at the trade deadline and free agency on July 1^st. Making their greatest mistakes at the trade deadline, followed closely by free agency. In fantasy hockey, the trade deadline is also fraught with ill-advised deals, and a heightened level of desperation in search of a championship, but there is an argument to be made that the first ten games of the fantasy hockey season produce some interesting trade opportunities. Surprising results from a small sample of games can lead to some itchy GM fingers in the ‘irrational exuberance” of the excitement of another season.

However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.

Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.

Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.

Brent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.

Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.

Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.

Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).

Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.

Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.

Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.

In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.

The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.

“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”

Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.

Colton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.

Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games.

Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.

Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.

He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.

Detroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.

Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.

The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.

The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed.