Alexander Barabanov – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas – Vatrano raising his game in Anaheim – Byfield picking up the pace in LA, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Nov 2023 13:42:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Los Angeles Kings Quinton Byfield (55) l(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make better fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Willam Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas, Frank Vatrano is raising his game in Anaheim, Quinton Byfield is picking up the pace in Los Angeles, and much more!

#1 William Karlsson was a standout on Vegas’ run to the Stanley Cup last season, scoring 11 goals in 22 playoff games, and he has continued to play at a high level early in the 2023-2024 season, putting up 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 10 games. Karlsson does so much of his damage at even strength, with 10 of his 13 points this season coming at evens, and his most common linemates have been rookie winger Pavel Dorofeyev and Michael Amadio, so Karlsson is the one driving those results.

#2 Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano delivered 22 goals and a career-high 41 points last season, his first in Southern California, but has stepped into a bigger role this season. Vatrano’s ice time is up nearly two minutes per game compared to last season and he has scored nine goals while launching 35 shots on goal in 10 games. Vatrano has always been a quality shot generator, but often in a limited role. Now that he is playing more than 18 minutes per game, his per-game shot rate is soaring.

#3 Progress has been gradual for Quinton Byfield, the Kings winger who was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft who had a modest career high of 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 53 games last season. Byfield has suddenly picked up six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and with a continued role on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, Byfield is getting the opportunity to develop his offensive game.

#4 Coming into the season, there were relatively high expectations for Pavel Zacha, the Boston Bruins centre who appeared to be due for a bigger role with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. He had just one assist in five games but has rebounded from that slow start, contributing six points (4 G, 2 A) with 14 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. David Pastrnak has been Zacha’s most common linemate, and that is obviously a good sign, but Zacha has also shifted to left wing, with rookie Matthew Poitras getting a look on Boston’s top line.

#5 Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 Draft, is starting to find his range offensively, riding a four-game point streak, during which he has produced four points (1 G, 3 A) and seven shots on goal. Power’s upside for fantasy managers runs into a ceiling because Rasmus Dahlin is the quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, but Power has the offensive skills to be productive even as the No. 2 option on the Buffalo blueline.

#6 Veteran New York Islanders winger Kyle Palmieri has been a serviceable secondary scorer since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, but has taken on a bigger role this season, tallying eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first nine games. He is skating with Pierre Engvall and Brock Nelson on the Islanders’ second line, but Palmieri does get first unit power play time, so there is an opportunity for him to hit 40 points for the first time since 2019-2020.

#7 Following a standout rookie season in which he tallied 24 goals, Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston has continued his upward trajectory. In his past six games, Johnston has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with a dozen shots on goal as Johnston maintains his familiar spot between Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov.

#8 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand got off to such a slow start last season, managing 14 points (3 G, 11 A) in his first 31 games and while his production got better, he was really chasing after such a poor start. The good news for Bjorkstrand and the Kraken is that it does not appear to be happening this season. With his goal Thursday night against Nashville, Bjorkstrand has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. After recording 10 power play points last season, Bjorkstrand already has four power play points this season.

#9 After missing all of last season while he recovered from neck and triceps injuries, Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson has already shown that he has not forgotten how to finish. In his past seven games, Atkinson has tallied eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 21 shots on goal. Getting that kind of production from a 34-year-old who just missed an entire season certainly helps lift the Flyers to a more competitive place and he has moved to play alongside Sean Couturier, the veteran centre who also missed all of last season. While the playoffs might still be a longshot, having Atkinson and Couturier healthy does change that calculation somewhat.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz has had an interesting career, with quality production mixed in with some injury-plagued seasons. He is off to a fine start this year, and has put up seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Schwartz is skating on a line with Alexander Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, but has been a power play threat, with four of his nine points this season coming with the man advantage.

#11 New York Rangers star defenseman Adam Fox suffered an apparent leg injury Thursday after a leg-on-leg hit from Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho. A Fox injury would leave a large hole on the Rangers blueline. He has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 10 games this season and has finished in the top five in Norris Trophy voting in each of the past three seasons, winning in 2020-2021. If Fox is going to be out of the lineup, Erik Gustafsson would be a logical replacement as the power play quarterback but K’Andre Miller might also be an option for more power play time, too.

#12 For managers in deep or banger leagues, Arizona Coyotes centre Jack McBain is producing enough to generate interest. In his second season, McBain has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past five games, but that is also not likely to be sustainable since he is a fourth liner playing about 12 minutes per game. Nevertheless, McBain’s fantasy appeal is tied to his physical play as he had 304 hits last season and has 28 hits through 10 games this season. If he gets his offensive production to even passable levels, there is a path to fantasy value.

#13 It appears that the Winnipeg Jets have found something in their physical third line of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton. Appleton has five points (2 G, 3 A) in the past five games and the trio has controlled 62.7% of five-on-five shot attempts and 60.3% of expected goals this season. There may be an offensive ceiling for these players but dominating five-on-five play to this degree at least indicates that they will be getting scoring chances.

#14 There are a couple of rookie defencemen forcing their way into the fantasy conversation. New Jersey’s Luke Hughes has six assists and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and four of those assists have come on the power play as Hughes is getting a look on the Devils’ top power play unit, with Dougie Hamilton sliding to the second unit. Across the country, in Anaheim, Ducks defenceman Pavel Mintyukov has five assists in the past five games and while he is getting a chance on the Ducks’ No. 1 power play unit, Mintyukov has just one power play point this season.

#15 The Philadelphia Flyers lost goaltender Carter Hart to a “mid-body” injury this week and it seems that they will be without him for a while. Samuel Ersson is next in line and the Flyers have recalled Cal Petersen from the American Hockey League, but none of this precludes Felix Sandstrom from potentially seeing action in the Flyers net as well. Ersson has had an incredibly poor start to the season, allowing 14 goals on 59 shots (a .763 save percentage!), while Petersen has a .884 save percentage in four AHL games this season. Although the goaltending could be a major question mark, the Flyers deserve credit for playing a stronger team game this season as they have earned 54.8% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play, which puts them in the top ten in that category.

#16 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig was hurt early in Thursday’s defeat against the Los Angeles Kings and that is going to test the Senators for the time that Greig is out. With Shane Pinto suspended, Greig was an important part of the lineup, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in eight games prior to Thursday as Ottawa’s third line centre. As a short-term fix, Rourke Chartier could move up the depth chart, but the journeyman pivot has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 28 career games, so he may not be a viable answer if Greig is going to miss significant time.

#17 Alexander Barabanov is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and that creates an opening on San Jose’s top line alongside Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair. San Jose is hardly the source for great fantasy production, as the Sharks are getting buried on a nightly basis, but in deep leagues keep tabs on Fabian Zetterlund, who is getting that chance and is averaging nearly 16 minutes per game over the past five.

#18 While it was understood that veteran right winger Blake Wheeler had seen his better days, the 37-year-old still had 55 points (16 G, 39 A) in 72 games for the Winnipeg Jets last season. He has started a new phase with the New York Rangers in the worst way, going without a point in his first 10 games, and he is playing just 12 minutes per game, his lowest time on ice average of his career. Without a role on the Blueshirts’ power play, Wheeler is going to be hard-pressed to get his production back to fantasy relevant levels unless there is a dramatic shift in the situation.

#19 After a strong finish to last season, when he was between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on Arizona’s top line, Barrett Hayton was in a good spot to continue his career ascent. He is still centering that top line, and getting power play time, but has yet to record a point through 10 games this season. Hayton has 25 shots on goal and is playing a career-high 19:31 per game, so he might be a decent buy-low candidate, but his value has taken an unexpected hit due to his lack of production.

#20 Ongoing health issues have forced Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom to step away from the game and while his announcement did not have a final decision, it appears that the 35-year-old could be headed for retirement. An elite player from 2007-2008 through 2020-2021, Backstrom has been hampered by hip issues and it has been a tough road coming back. Since returning last season, Backstrom has 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 47 games and the Capitals have been outscored 31-16 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. He just isn’t the same player who was nearly a point-per-game scorer in his first 1,000 games in the league and, at his peak, was in the Selke Trophy discussion. With Backstrom out, that does provide more opportunity for Dylan Strome, whose ice time has been climbing and has six goals in his past six games.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:05:11 +0000

Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.

What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.

What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.

What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.

Forwards

Tomas Hertl

A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.

Logan Couture

The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.

Anthony Duclair

An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20^th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.

Mike Hoffman

A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.

Mikael Granlund

Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.

Alexander Barabanov

The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.

Kevin Labanc

Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.

Filip Zadina

The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.

Fabian Zetterlund

Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.

Nico Sturm

A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.

Defense

Mario Ferraro

While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.

Matt Benning

The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.

Kyle Burroughs

A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood

The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.

There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Projected starts: 40-45

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Trade market heating up – Players with increasing value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 10 Feb 2023 20:43:06 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 05: New York Rangers center Filip Chytil (72) tracks the play during the New York Rangers versus the Montreal Canadiens game on January 05, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Rangers dive into the trade market and the St. Louis Blues might just be getting started as sellers. Players with increasing value include Filip Chytil, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Kyle Palmieri, and more.

#1 The Rangers acquired right winger Vladimir Tarasenko from the Blues, and the veteran has 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 38 games, but has failed to record a point in four games since returning from a broken hand that kept him out of the lineup for more than three weeks. Moving to the Rangers ought to give Tarasenko a chance to play with Artemi Panarin, which is a plus, and Tarasenko is already due for some positive shooting percentage regression – he has a 9.7% shooting percentage, and he has never had a season in which he played more than 25 games and finished with a shooting percentage below 10.0%.

#2 Heading back to St. Louis, winger Sammy Blais did not really work out in New York, managing zero goals and nine assists in 54 games going back to last season. Blais has some fantasy sleeper appeal, especially in banger leagues, because the Blues are likely to give him more playing time than he was getting with the Rangers and Blais is a prolific hitter, averaging more than three hits per game for his career.

#3 With Tarasenko departing, the immediate beneficiary in St. Louis would seem to be winger Jake Neighbours, the 20-year-old rookie who is in the AHL, but he has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 27 games and is poised to play a bigger role down the stretch if the Blues are going to embark on a serious rebuild by dealing their veterans with expiring deals. If the Blues are going into overhauling their roster, Ryan O’Reilly and Ivan Barbashev will both have plenty of appeal on the trade market, and they have veteran defensemen on long-term deals – Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy – and it would not be a shock to see the Blues try to move one of them as well.

#4 A first-round pick of the Rangers in 2017, Filip Chytil is having a breakthrough season. He has tallied seven goals during a five-game goal-scoring streak, giving him career highs of 19 goals and 32 points in 43 games. Chytil is scoring on 20.2% of his shots, after scoring on 8.8% of his shots in 253 games prior to this season, so that shooting percentage is due to fall, but he is giving the Rangers a legitimate secondary scoring option.

#5 The New Jersey Devils are going to be without center Jack Hughes on a week-to-week basis due to an upper-body injury. That is a big absence from the lineup as Hughes put up 28 goals and 46 points in his last 30 games before the All-Star break. With Hughes out, Nico Hischier, Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer, and Michael McLeod fill out the middle of the ice for New Jersey and Ondrej Palat moved onto the No. 1 power play unit in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Seattle. Palat has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games.

#6 Scoring Calgary’s only goal in Thursday’s 2-1 loss at Detroit, Blake Coleman has forced his way into fantasy relevance. In his past 11 games, he has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 42 shots on goal. He is not hitting as much as he has in previous seasons, but Coleman’s elevated shot rate still gives him value across multiple categories.

#7 The production might be of the empty calorie variety for an Anaheim Ducks team that is nowhere close to competitive, but Frank Vatrano is at his volume-shooting best in recent games. In his past five games, Vatrano has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal, and anyone who is getting shots like that becomes interesting for fantasy managers. Vatrano has only scored on 7.8% of his shots this season, which would be the lowest mark of his career, so he is likely due for more good fortune around the net.

#8 Veteran winger Kyle Palmieri has not been as productive with the Islanders as he was during his prime in New Jersey, but he could have some sleeper value for the stretch run. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games, while averaging more than 17 minutes per game. Palmieri also has 47 hits in 28 games, so that makes him a more viable deep league option.

#9 It has been anything but a smooth path for 2020 first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere, who has a modest 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games in his third NHL season. He was even a healthy scratch earlier in the season, but with the Rangers reuniting Lafreniere with Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, they may have a quality secondary scoring line. Lafreniere has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. That counts as his most points in any six-game segment of the season and his most shots in a six-game stretch since October.

#10 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Phil Kessel is showing signs of life on their recent stretch of road games, putting up five points (3 G, 2 A) and 18 shots on goal in six straight games away from T-Mobile Arena. Kessel is clearly on the downside of his career, but could still help in a complementary role, and the Golden Knights need all hands on-deck now that captain Mark Stone is out for the rest of the season due to back surgery.

#11 San Jose Sharks winger Alexander Barabanov has been a reluctant shooter, but he is making his mark in a scoring role. In the past 16 games, he has accumulated 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal. That shot rate is not the most encouraging sign, but he is playing big minutes – 20 minutes or more in six of his past 18 games. After struggling to gain footing with Toronto, the 28-year-old has made the most of his opportunity in San Jose.

#12 Most of the time, in 20 Fantasy Points, the focus is on players that could provide more value in the future. There are a few players to consider this week that have declining value. First up is Colorado Avalanche winger Artturi Lehkonen, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Anyone getting a chance to play alongside Nathan MacKinnon has value, of course, but if Lehkonen’s production slows down, it becomes easier for the Avs to replace him in that spot.

#13 Seattle Kraken rookie center Matty Beniers is considered the clear front-runner in the Calder Trophy race for top rookie, but he has hit a rough patch, going without a point and managing 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. Beniers still leads all rookies with 17 goals and 36 points, but the longer this slump goes, the more opportunity there will be for challengers like Cole Perfetti and Mason McTavish, who are seven and eight points behind, respectively, to catch up.

#14 Surprisingly effective early in the season for the Detroit Red Wings, winger Dominik Kubalik had 25 points (10 G, 15 A) while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time in 25 games. In the two months since then, Kubalik has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 24 games and is playing less than 14 minutes per game. Sure, the Red Wings are getting healthier up front, which makes it more difficult to maintain that ice time, but the crash in production did not have to be quite so dramatic.

#15 Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson has often looked overwhelmed in recent seasons. It’s understandable, as the Ducks allow the highest rate of shots against in the league. He has turned in a respectable .906 save percentage since the holiday break, but the workload is getting outrageous. In those 13 games, he has faced 40 or more shots six times, and landed on 39 shots against in two more games. When it comes to fantasy value, Gibson has the potential to provide huge value because of how many shots he faces, but the downside of giving up five or six goals is too much, especially because it means that he is not likely to accumulate wins.

#17 With Cam Talbot injured, Anton Forsberg is getting more reps in goal for the Ottawa Senators. He has won four straight games and his .905 save percentage in 27 games is just a little below league average. The wins are a little easier to come by in Ottawa, at least relative to other non-playoff teams, so if Forsberg is getting regular starts, he becomes a viable option, especially in deeper fantasy leagues.

#18 Considering that Jacob Markstrom was a runner-up for the Vezina Trophy last season, it did not seem like a goalie controversy was going to be part of this season for the Calgary Flames, but it does appear to be trending in that direction. Markstrom has a .892 save percentage, which would be the lowest of his career for a season in which he played at least 20 games. Meanwhile, Daniel Vladar has a .903 save percentage in 20 appearances, which is okay, enough to get him more starts while Markstrom is struggling. Maybe the real question is whether the Flames would consider calling up Dustin Wolf from the AHL. The 21-year-old has a .928 save percentage in 34 games for the Calgary Wranglers this season, after a .924 mark in 47 AHL games last season.

#19 Since the holiday break, the Florida Panthers have the most productive power play, scoring 12.74 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. That comes in just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers (12.57), who have had the best power play in the league by a substantial margin. With the Panthers burying their power play chances, Matthew Tkachuk is tied for the lead in five-on-four scoring since the holiday break with 13 points in 19 games. Connor McDavid has 13 five-on-four points in 17 games. Other Panthers boosting their power play point totals in that time: Aleksander Barkov (11), Sam Reinhart (9), and Brandon Montour (8), who are all among the Top 15 five-on-four scorers.

#20 Again, since the holiday break, looking at players with the highest rate of on-ice expected goals in all situations, Matthew Tkachuk holds the lead among players with at least 100 minutes played at 6.13, followed by Nikolaj Ehlers (5.67), Roope Hintz (5.62), Zach Hyman (5.42), and Auston Matthews (5.36). Some interesting and possibly unexpected names in the Top 25 include Kyle Palmieri, Carter Verhaeghe, Tomas Hertl, and Michael Eyssimont. Strictly during five-on-five play, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe rank 1-2, followed by Hertl, Sam Bennett, and Jaccob Slavin. The takeaway here is that the Panthers have something cooking with their second line at even strength, in addition to their suddenly potent power play.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:24:48 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - FEBRUARY 14: San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl (48) and San Jose Sharks right wing Timo Meier (28) talk during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers on February 14, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Timo Meier

An elite shot generator who had everything come together in 2021-2022, Meier had career highs in goal (35) and points (76) while launching 4.23 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career and fifth highest rate in the league. There had been signs of this kind of performance before, but last season Meier was a consistent force throughout the season and it’s not easy to generate shots and points at that rate, especially for a team that is struggling. Now that sets a new level of expectations for what he might be able to accomplish in the future, but if the Sharks are going to become a more competitive franchise, they will likely need more of the same from Meier. Furthermore, if he puts up another season like he did last season, there ought to be greater league-wide recognition for his performance because he was outstanding last season. Tempering expectations, Meier should be a reasonable bet for 30 goals and 65 points this season, with the understanding that if he can maintain his elite shot rates that he could very well be a point-per-game player.

Tomas Hertl

After committing to stay in San Jose with a new contract, Hertl responded by scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career and his 64 points also represented the second highest total of his career. A powerful and skilled center, Hertl also recorded a career high 105 hits and played a career high 19:56 per game. It was a very productive campaign, and he did all of this despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, which does not seem like an ideal use of his talents. Hertl is solid defensively, that’s not the point, but the 28-year-old’s offensive skills set him apart to a greater degree, so it might make more sense to focus his efforts there, when possible. Hertl should be able to produce 25 goals and 60 points, with room to elevate further depending on his durability and how well his supporting cast in San Jose performs.

Logan Couture

The 33-year-old center continues to deliver solid results, and he put up 23 goals and 56 points last season while driving play in a positive way, at least relative to his teammates. Couture’s shot rate of 2.58 shots per game last season was his highest since 2017-2018, the season when he scored a career-high 34 goals, but he has established a level of productivity in the league, surpassing 20 goals nine times and topping 30 goals three times. The main question for the Sharks will be for how much longer can he produce at a first line level? He is under contract for five more seasons, and it seems unlikely that he will avoid decline in that time, but he is coming off a strong season and should be in position to be a productive scoring center again, good for at least 50 points, maybe even more.

Alexander Barabanov

After starting his NHL career as a spare part with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Barabanov has found stability in San Jose, producing 46 points in 79 games since joining the Sharks. Some measure of that production may reflect opportunity more than his own individual improvement, because Barabanov’s most common Sharks linemates have been Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, so that is about as favorable as it gets for a Sharks winger. Barabanov also happens to be a relatively reluctant shooter, so having him in a playmaking role with the team’s top two goal-scorers does offer a stylistic fit. It’s hard to pin down a forecast for Barabanov because he seems so heavily dependent on linemates that are better players, so if he was to get bumped from the top line, his value could drop dramatically. As such, the reasonable play would be to expect 30 points from Barabanov, with the understanding that he has potential upside that could take him higher.

Kevin Labanc

A skilled 26-year-old winger, Labanc had stumbled since busting out for a career high 56 points in 2018-2019 and he had managed just six points in 21 games before he had to undergo shoulder surgery and that ultimately left him sidelined for the rest of the season. In his last eight games before surgery, Labanc had zero points and was averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, so he was at a relative low point. He has the playmaking skill to play in a top six role but after some injuries and inconsistency he will have to earn his way back into a significant spot with this team. Labanc could do it, because he has the puck skills and the shot to be a point producer in the National Hockey League but, coming off shoulder surgery, it is not going to be easy to get back to his previous level of production. If Labanc produced 35-40 points and managed to stay healthy, that would be a positive outcome, but there is a path to even more points if he could get back to his early career form.

Oskar Lindblom

Although the Philadelphia Flyers stuck with Lindblom while he recovered from Ewing’s Sarcoma, he had not been able to recapture his previous form, so the Flyers bought out the final year of his contract. That presented an opportunity for the Sharks to buy low on a 26-year-old winger who had shown real promise early in his NHL career. It is a worthwhile risk to take because Lindblom’s defensive play is solid enough, which raises the floor on his level of contribution, but if the 26-year-old can get his scoring touch back then he might have a chance to score 15 goals and 30 points to provide a favorable return on investment.

Luke Kunin

Picked up in a trade with the Nashville Predators, Kunin is a feisty winger whose on-ice results aren’t great, but teams that want guys who will go to battle are interested in players like Kunin because he hits a lot and will drop the gloves, if need be. He does have some level of skill, scoring 38 goals in 183 games across the past three seasons, but the challenge for the Sharks is taking the parts of Kunin’s game that they like and figuring out how to improve his possession results because, among the 232 forwards that have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in the past three seasons, Kunin ranks 231^st in relative Corsi. If he can overcome those underlying numbers, Kunin could produce 15 goals and 25-30 points, while potentially adding huge hit totals – he had 223 hits last season, the first time in his career that he had more than 90 hits in a season.

Nick Bonino

A reliable veteran who struggled quite a bit last season, Bonino went 18 games without a point to start the season, though he ended up scoring eight goals in his last 15 games to finish with more respectable numbers. Still, 26 points in 80 games was the 34-year-old’s lowest per-game production since his rookie season of 2010-2011. Bonino tends to have the deck stacked against him, starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and even with his sound defensive play, his possession numbers have been terrible the past two seasons. Given his age, it’s fair to wonder if he will be able to turn that around. Setting an expectation for 15 goals and 30 points is reasonable enough, provided Bonino can maintain a top nine role.

Noah Gregor

A 24-year-old winger, Gregor has started to make his mark in the NHL by generating shots at a high rate but has not been able to finish his chances, scoring on just 6.4% of his shots on goal in his career. If he can’t finish at a higher rate, then Gregor will have to provide energy and physical play in a depth role. It is still relatively early in Gregor’s NHL career, so he will face a challenge from others just to secure a spot in the lineup, but if Gregor can play on a consistent basis, 25 points could be in his sights, and his scoring numbers could spike if he ever learns how to finish. He had scored 14 goals and 40 points in 43 AHL games, so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with the objective when he gets into the offensive zone. It has just proven to be difficult for him to finish his opportunities in the NHL.

DEFENSE

Erik Karlsson

Following a down season in 2020-2021, Karlsson bounced back in a big way last season. While he wasn’t peak Karlsson, he still put up 35 points in 50 games. Of course, injuries have played a bigger part in Karlsson’s career in recent seasons, as he has not played 70 games in a season since 2017-2018. Since 2013-2014, Karlsson has scored 497 points which ranks fourth among defensemen. His 0.82 points per game ranks second among defensemen (behind Cale Makar). With Brent Burns getting traded to Carolina, Karlsson should have a bigger role quarterbacking the Sharks power play, so if Karlsson could manage to stay healthy, he might have his best offensive production in several seasons. Try 45 points with potential for more if Karlsson manages to stay healthy. That health risk is not something to be ignored, either, since Karlsson has missed more than 10 games in four of the past five seasons.

Ryan Merkley

The 2018 first-round pick reached the National Hockey League last season and played 39 games for the Sharks. While he has potential, with the ability to generate offensive chances, he is also a work in progress when it comes to his play without the puck. That could leave him in a battle for a regular spot in the lineup, but the 22-year-old also offers offensive potential and that might hold some value for the Sharks. Merkley has 30 points, though just two goals, in 63 AHL games, so he has a little bit of an offensive track record that should offer more hope than the six points in 39 games that he scored for the Sharks last season.

Mario Ferraro

A bundle of energy who plays hard, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to establish as their team identity. The 23-year-old was one of 11 defensemen to record at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season, even though he was limited to 63 games after suffering a broken fibula. There is still room for improvement, with regard to how he can generate offense and how he defends the blueline. If Ferraro could produce more than 20 points that would count as progress, but that also might be enough, along with his hit and blocked shot totals, to give him fringe fantasy value in deep leagues.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

There was a time when Vlasic was a premier shutdown defender but that is in the rearview mirror now and the 35-year-old’s role has been reduced significantly in recent seasons. He played a career-low 15:13 per game last season and is now an expensive depth defenseman. San Jose has been outscored 141-91 with Vlasic on the ice during 5-on-5 play in the past three seasons, so it’s understandable that his role is getting reduced and that reduced role limits what kind of scoring might come from Vlasic. Anything more than 15 points would be relatively surprising.

GOALTENDING

James Reimer

The San Jose Sharks quickly cleared up any lingering questions that fans might have had regarding their goaltending tandem positions a few weeks before training camp was set to open, dealing Adin Hill to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving James Reimer with only backup Kaapo Kähkönen as his second-in-command.

The Sharks remain a hard team to figure out from a goaltending perspective, because they just can’t seem to put it all together – although Reimer, who will be 35-years-old before the season wraps up, has been their most successful option over the last handful of years. His .911 save percentage in all situations was peppered with consistently good games and very few poor ones, similar to the games that Antti Raanta posted for Carolina in Reimer’s old spot on the east coast; like Raanta, Reimer played a season that didn’t challenge for any Vezina nods but gave his team a known and consistent entity to play behind each night. Reimer’s game still has a few of the rough edges that have lingered as a tribute to the unorthodox development path he took – he didn’t receive formal goaltending coaching until later in his adolescence, giving him a style that relies more on his instincts than monotonous style and predictable footwork. But while he lacks some of the finesse of goaltenders who had earlier formal training, his affable personality shines through in how seamlessly he integrates himself into a team’s defensive system; he seems to rarely find himself fighting against those playing in front of him, and his lack of inconsistency over the last five or six seasons make it easy to trust that he’ll get the job done in the back while his teammates can focus their games more on offense. His biggest risk area remains his health; while he hasn’t missed extensive time recently, his laundry list of injuries over his career keep him firmly encamped among the goaltenders who will always need a reliable number two just in case the team is left without their services for a stretch.

Projected starts: 50-55

OH, CANADA! – NHL Trade Deadline Edition

Jeff Veillette — Fri, 16 Apr 2021 14:57:40 +0000

Welcome back to “Oh, Canada” – a weekly journey across Canada’s temporary North Division, exploring stories that may have happened throughout the week. With the NHL’s Trade Deadline occurring on Monday Afternoon, this week’s issue will be a quick glance at each team’s transactions in the days and hours before the cutoff.

COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 10: Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Nick Foligno (71) looks on during the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Tampa Bay Lightning at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 10, 2020. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

Calgary Flames

April 11^th: Traded G David Rittich to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 3^rd Round Draft Pick in 2022
April 12^th: Traded F Sam Bennett and a 6^th Round Draft Pick in 2022 to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Emil Heineman and a 2^nd Round Draft Pick in 2022

With the disappointing season that the Flames have had, it wasn’t a big shock to see them look more towards selling than buying. Nothing short of a miracle will get them into the playoffs at this point, so it stands to reason that the team would look towards refilling the cupboard a bit.

Which pieces would go, though, was the bigger question. Rittich’s departure makes sense given his upcoming free agent status and the long-term commitment the team has with Jacob Markstrom, but Bennett was a bit surprising. After all, we were only days removed from him telling the world that he was no longer interested in being traded! But, when a haul like the Flames received – a second-round pick and Heineman, a recent second-round pick himself – becomes available, the equation changes and you’re suddenly okay with moving a bottom six forward.

I think there is still a little more the Flames could’ve possibly done here. Derek Ryan, for example, feels like the sort of player they would have likely gotten phone calls on but chose not to move. But with so much of their core locked up to term and a lot of uncertainty around the league at the moment, it makes sense that they didn’t want to go into a snap fire sale at the highest level. What they did get done should be considered a particularly good effort.

Edmonton Oilers

April 12^th: Traded a Conditional 4^th Round Draft Pick in 2022 to the New Jersey Devils for D Dmitry Kulikov

The Oilers didn’t do a heck of a lot to add, and with the team in the position that they are, that decision seems like a confusing one. Ken Holland talked about a look towards next year as a spending year, telling reporters “I don’t know that you can be all-in every year. I think you pick and choose.”

To Holland’s credit, the Oilers could find themselves in a very flexible position next year, with a bevy of contracts coming off the books to supply them with $27 million in cap space. On the other hand, some of those names (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Tyson Barrie, Kailer Yamamoto, Mike Smith) will take up a decent chunk of money to either re-sign or replace, and there’s no guarantee – especially in Smith’s case – that they put up the same results next year.

Not to mention a few other factors at play here like, I don’t know, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl producing at career-high rates, and while Toronto seems to be a formidable potential opponent, they’ll still have Vegas to deal with when the divisions go back to normal next year. It seems to me that while the team aren’t sure-fire favourites, they’re good enough to have a shot, and so long as you have a generational talent in his prime available, you push forward. Instead, all that happened is a minor pick for depth transaction – Kulikov is a body who can play games and minutes and that’s important to any playoff team, but he’s not going to be breaking any games.

Montreal Canadiens

April 12^th: Lost D Victor Mete on Waivers to the Ottawa Senators
April 12^th: Traded a 7^th Round Draft Pick in 2022 to the Philadelphia Flyers for D Erik Gustafsson

The Canadiens have a bit more of an excuse for a quiet deadline, given that that they had lost four of five going into the deadline and seem to mostly be playoff-secure right now due to the Flames’ failures, rather than their own success. It’s very reminiscent of last year’s team – perhaps the sign of a core that is decent, but still not ready to be in the contender conversation for a little bit.

They also already made their splash in acquiring Eric Staal on March 26^th, and with just one point to his name in the six games since (albeit an OT winner), that may have given Marc Bergevin some pause on attempting another. They did make an intriguing attempt at a buy-low, though, in acquiring Flyers’ defenceman Erik Gustafsson, who probably has the most shocking-to-stumble-upon 60-point season of any active NHLer (2018/19 with Chicago).

I don’t think Montreal is expecting to get a repeat of that out of him, and with an expiring contract, they likely don’t have time to find out. But he’s a perfectly capable defenceman who can contribute in the defensive zone, even if he appears to be a shell of his former self offensively. Given the loss of Victor Mete to waivers earlier in the day, the low-cost bet appears to be sound.

Ottawa Senators

April 11^th: Traded D Mike Reilly to the Boston Bruins for a 3^rd Round Draft Pick in 2022
April 12^th: Claimed D Victor Mete on Waivers from Montreal Canadiens
April 12^th: Traded D Erik Gudbranson to the Nashville Predators for Brandon Fortunato and a 7^th Round Draft Pick in 2023
April 12^th: Traded D Braydon Coburn to the New York Islanders for a 7^th Round Draft Pick in 2022

Victor Mete

It should come to no surprise that the Senators would be sellers in a clear rebuild year, but after the way Erik Gudbranson and Brayden Coburn were talked about as invaluable members of the team by DJ Smith in the weeks prior, there was some wonder whether he was asset-pumping or sure that they’d stick around.

It seems the answer is neither, as both have moved on and neither fetched much – 7^th round picks in later years, and a warm-body contract in Fortunato. It stands to reason for the Senators to take what they could get there, though, and as the market for big, defence first, non-play driving defencemen fades year after year, what they could get just wasn’t much.

Redemption came in their other two transactions. Getting a 22-year-old Victor Mete for free from the Canadiens via waivers, presumably with lots of ice time now available to him, was a great free wallet. Even if he doesn’t amount to his previous hype, he still at least seems to be a young, capable NHLer, so the potential on the acquisition is nearly all upside. Mike Reilly would be a tough loss to a team in a more competitive position but given that he will be out of his prime by the time the Senators are ready, getting a third round pick in a buyer’s market is a solid alternative.

Toronto Maple Leafs

April 9^th: Traded a Conditional 7^th Round Draft Pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets for F Riley Nash
April 11^th: Traded a 1^st Round Draft Pick in 2021 and a 4^th Round Draft Pick in 2022 to the Columbus Blue Jackets, and 4^th Round Draft Pick in 2021, for F Nick Foligno (two salary retentions) and F Stefan Noesen
April 11^th: Traded a 3^rd Round Draft Pick in 2022 to the Calgary Flames for G David Rittich
April 12^th: Traded F Alexander Barabanov to the San Jose Sharks for F Antti Suomela
April 12^th: Traded a 5^th Round Pick in 2022 to the Anaheim Ducks for D Ben Hutton

Few, if any teams were more active in trying to check all possible boxes than the Maple Leafs in their deadline week. Nash brings them a fourth line, absence-of-event defensive forward, and acquiring him first gave Toronto some LTIR flexibility as he recovers from a sprained knee. Rittich gives them a fourth goalie to play regular season games while they figure out which of Jack Campbell, Frederik Andersen, and Michael Hutchinson are healthy and/or good. Ben Hutton has played games throughout the season and will be a warmer option should a depth defenceman be required. Over in San Jose, the Leafs get to do a favour to a European signing who didn’t work out and find him another spot to try to make a name for himself, while getting back a player who can play centre if their depth severely lessens.

The big fish here is obviously Foligno, who fetched the biggest return of any rental forward this week. Toronto is hoping that he can be the piece that brings it all together – someone who bolsters their sandpaper while contributing a solid two-way game. His familial relation to the city through his father Mike helps create an early bond with the fanbase.

From a traditional perspective, I think the Maple Leafs checked a lot of boxes. They sharpened their tools up front, on defence, and in goal. There are some arguments to be had about the costs, mostly on the Foligno trade, and whether a spend that steep could’ve been better put towards a higher-talent player. But in an interesting plot twist, Kyle Dubas has stuck with conventional wisdom, and we’ll see where it takes them.

Adam Gaudette

Vancouver Canucks

April 12^th: Traded F Adam Gaudette to the Chicago Blackhawks for F Matthew Highmore
April 12^th: Traded a 4^th Round Draft Pick in 2021 to the Chicago Blackhawks for D Madison Bowey and a 5^th Round Draft Pick in 2021
April 12^th: Traded D Jordie Benn to the Winnipeg Jets for a 6^th Round Draft Pick in 2021

Traditionally, this is one of the best weeks in the year to wonder what exactly the Vancouver Canucks are thinking, as this is right about the time where this management group has frequently let sharper minds in the fanbase down. Usually, this is the time where you expect the Canucks to sell and replenish their pick capital, only for them to case a bunch of pre-prime aged reclamation projects in hopes that what Jim Benning once liked about them can be found again.

Now, looking at the above list, it’s easy to say that they’ve literally done just that once again. They extended Tanner Pearson instead of trading him, they kept Brandon Sutter, they kept Travis Hamonic, they kept Alex Edler, they didn’t move out anyone with term, and they come out of this all with only a couple low picks and two 25-year-old longshots. But I’d argue, for once, that they can take a pass on this one.

With the Canucks in a completely unenviable spot due to their COVID-19 outbreak, I understand the interest in doing right by the players and avoiding moving them whenever possible this week. Most reports seem to suggest that Gaudette preferred to move, and given his position as potential patient zero, I can see why they made it work for him. Benn was unlikely to return next year and moving him to a Canadian team to minimize disruption was likely something he was happy with. I’m kind of into the Madison Bowey play as well – his NHL career hasn’t been great to date, but he’s at the very least a solid tweener, and the average value gap between a 4^th and 5^th rounder isn’t significant.

In normal circumstances, I’d be all over dunking on this deadline. This time? We’ll give them a pass. It’s fine given how up against the wall they were.

Winnipeg Jets

April 12^th: Traded a 6^th Round Draft Pick in 2021 to the Vancouver Canucks for D Jordie Benn

So, on the note of Benn, Winnipeg was where he landed, as the Jets’ only move of significance this week. In him, they get a veteran who has seen his way around the league, making stops in Dallas, Montreal, and obviously, Vancouver on his way to his new home. He’s best known as a physical, shot blocking defenceman who can put up a limited, but existent rate of production, and has some comfort on the penalty kill. Most underlying metrics aren’t super high on him, though the popular Evolving Hockey Goals Above Replacement model has him as Vancouver’s second most positively impactful player this year.

Suffice to say, while he’s not a slam dunk acquisition, he’s the kind that a team can make for a sixth-round pick and be satisfied. That’s especially true if you’re the Winnipeg Jets, who for all of their scoring talent and their elite goaltending, simply do not have a strong defence core. As it stands, we’re talking about a team where Neal Pionk seems to clearly be their top defenceman, with no one, even the high-priced Josh Morrissey, really stepping up to declare themselves as a well above-average piece, let alone be a star.

The big question here is – could they have done more? As mentioned last week, there was talk of Mattias Ekholm, but Nashville’s price got excessive quickly. David Savard may have been an interesting add, though he ultimately landed in Tampa Bay. Not outbidding Boston on Mike Reilly is the one that really confuses me, as the cost of a third-round pick was little to nothing for a player like him. The Jets are in a great position to go for it this year, and while Benn helps, I’m just not sure it’s enough of a leap forward in that position. Then again, when you have one of the best goalies in the world at your disposal, maybe you don’t have to do much defending.