Andrei Buyalsky – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #29 – Colorado Avalanche

Derek Neuemeier — Fri, 12 May 2023 17:15:38 +0000

Prospect System Ranking – 29^th

A Stanley Cup in the books, with an elite core at the beginning of their prime in MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen, who all rate among the very best at their position. Their quest to repeat was derailed by injuries and a surprising Seattle team in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. They have graduated three first rounders from 2018 (Martin Kaut, 16th) and 2019 (Bowen Byram, 4^th and Alex Newhook, 16^th) and traded another in Justin Barron for Artturi Lehkonen, who was a useful piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle. They have done a good job of development, but the pipeline is not deep at this point. Surpising Nikolai Kovalenko had a tremendous year but remains in Russia. Jean Luc-Foudy has exceeded expectations nicely as a third-round pick and may be close to the NHL in the next two years.

The Avalanche still retain their first-round picks for the upcoming three seasons, but that is likely to change. Captain Gabriel Landeskog is slated to miss all of next season, along with some other glaring holes that remained unfulfilled by last season departing free agents, most notably Nazem Kadiri. The hope had been that Alex Newhook would be able to step into the second line role, but he struggled to carry that load. It is unlikely the Avalanche will risk that chance again and look for them to be active with the resources they have. By the time they picked in 2022, it was in the sixth round. They only have four picks for 2023, so you can count on a similar scenario.

Sean Behrens

Nikolai Kovalenko

The son of former NHLer Andrei Kovalenko, Nikolai took a massive leap forward this season in the KHL. Joining his third different team in three years, which could have gone poorly, turned out to be exactly what the doctor ordered, as his scoring totals exploded with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod. He had the highest point-per-game total among all KHL players under the age of 25 and was the top scorer on his team. With his NHL bloodlines and being a two-time MHL champion, the foundation was always there for him to break out as a pro, but this much success was a surprise. He loves to have the puck on his stick and lead play driving, and repeatedly attacks the opposing net with pace and purpose. He should be ready for a role with Colorado whenever he decides that he wants to cross the pond.

2. Jean-Luc Foudy

Foudy has always had elite speed, and he is a fascinating case study for how far a prospect can go when they have that one defining trait in particular. It took him some time to really understand how to translate that dangerous tool into actual scoring results and not just wasted energy, but he seems to have figured it out now, producing at nearly a point-per-game clip this year. His hands and vision have notably caught up a lot with his feet, which not only help him do more actual damage when he creates separation space for himself, they also allow him to have more of an impact when the play has to slow down, especially on the powerplay. He'll be a full-time NHLer soon enough, and it's scary to think of how well he could mesh with the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

3. Sean Behrens

If Behrens were a little bigger he would have gone a lot higher than 61^st overall in the 2021 draft. You'd be hard-pressed to find a single scout who has seen him who wouldn't make time for him and how he plays, but the question has always been around how likely it is that he can become an impact player in the NHL. Defensemen his age don't get much more smart or competitive, he never seems to back down from a challenge, and the brighter the spotlight, the better he plays (see: Denver's 2022 NCAA championship). He competes hard in all three zones and rarely makes any mistakes. The lack of size, the lack of high-end skating, and the lack of true offensive pop make him a little hard to project at the sport's highest level, however, underestimate him at your own peril.

4. Oskar Olausson

There's no denying that Olausson has talent, but the actual results of his play have been quite inconsistent since his draft year. Feed him the puck in the offensive zone and give him enough time and space and there's a good chance he'll make the other team pay, primarily through the hard, accurate release of his wrist shots and one-timers. Unfortunately, he runs into troubles creating scoring opportunities for himself or his teammates, and his-off puck play leaves a lot to be desired. Puck watching and low pace are two bad habits that have persisted for a while and still need to be corrected. In fairness, he has played in six different leagues spread across three different countries over the past three seasons, which surely made it harder to really get his game to the highest level that it could be at right now.

5. Justus Annunen

As much of a built-in advantage that large goalies can have when it comes to naturally taking up a lot of the net, the challenge is supplementing that size with enough corresponding quickness, athleticism, flexibility and reflexes. That's the challenge that Annunen has been trying to overcome ever since his draft year, and while progress has undeniably been made, there is still a lot of work left to do. He relies on a pretty straightforward blocking style of goaltending, keeping focused on what's happening in front of him, trying to stay square to shooters, and letting his butterfly do the work. However, if teams can get him moving around in the crease, they can open him up, and they figure that out quickly. Colorado is thin for prospect goaltending depth, so Annunen will keep getting starts in the AHL to see how much progress he can make.

6. Ben Meyers

The Avalanche signed Meyers straight out of college in 2022, he scored his first NHL goal in his first NHL game, and while he wasn't actually eligible to play for Colorado during their Stanley Cup championship run it must have been both a surreal and valuable experience being around that team. Now in his first full year as a pro he is firmly a part of their attempt at a repeat. He is a sharp-minded forward who never takes a shift off and works hard for every inch of his ice. While he doesn't generate a lot of offense or really excel in a defensive role, a coach can send him over the boards with a lot of trust. The hope is that Meyers can elevate his game to the kind of high level it reached at the end of his time in the NCAA.

7. Sampo Ranta

Ranta now has 18 total NHL games under his belt between the regular season and the playoffs but is still searching for his first career point at that level. Colorado probably isn't too concerned about that, though, and will likely keep giving him looks because he has produced offense at lower levels and has a combination of attributes that should lead to further results. He has long, strong skating strides that can create separation moving north or south, he can use his frame and reach to fend off opponents and possesses some finishing touch. That, really, is his game in a nutshell, and he hasn't diversified it much or added layers to it, even going back as far as his draft year. He knows what he is and sticks to what he knows, which can be both a good and a bad thing at times.

8. Ryan Merkley

The enigmatic Merkley struggled to live up to his potential while he was a member of the Sharks organization, and requested a trade just four and a half years after San Jose used a 1st-round pick on him. The good news is that his wish was granted. The bad news is that he is struggling just as much as he did before, if not moreso. He was drafted in the 1^st round in 2018 because of his superb offensive vision, puck skill, playmaking and shot, despite red flags with his discipline and defending. To succeed he always needed his pros to shine enough to outweigh his cons, but ever since turning pro that hasn't happened. His skills aren't translating. The clock is ticking, and Merkley is running out of time to figure these problems out find a way to prove that he belongs in the NHL.

9. Alex Beaucage

Beaucage has been pretty quiet in his two years since turning pro, but there were times in the QMJHL where he was able to really elevate his game and sometimes even looked like one of the best players in the league, so the Avalanche are hoping that he will be able to figure out how to reach those kinds of levels again. He is a toolsy winger with size, though his goal-scoring really stands out as his biggest asset. His shot can be outright terrifying and unstoppable on occasion. The challenge for him now is fully understanding the difference between scoring goals at the two different levels, as he has less time and space to work with now and can't shrug off opposing defenders as easily as before. Utilizing his size better would also be a welcome change. Beaucage is a prospect worth being patient for.

10. Colby Ambrosio

Ambrosio led his USHL team in goals and points in his draft year as a 17-year-old and was a dynamic force, so it's a bit of a mystery as to why he hasn't been able to find a similar level of effectiveness yet after three years at Boston College. He's a quick player, but not necessarily a fast one, and that distinction is important. He can use his quickness to capitalize on small windows of opportunity created by lucky bounces or small mistakes, but he isn't really adept at creating opportunities at this level. And if he can't do it in the NCAA, how will he be able to do it in the NHL? As easy as it is to commend Ambrosio's high pace and work rate, those attributions can only do so much when a player has a natural size disadvantage.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – COLORADO AVALANCHE – Top 20 Prospects

Sun, 18 Sep 2022 16:22:39 +0000

SAINT PAUL, MN - APRIL 29: Colorado Avalanche Left Wing Ben Meyers (59) lines up for a faceoff during the NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild on April 29th, 2022, at Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

1 - Bowen Byram D

Byram barely keeps his eligibility for our list because he was limited this past season due to a very serious concussion that caused him to step away from the Avalanche for an extended period. He recovered in time to play a large part in Colorado’s Stanley Cup victory, playing well over 20 minutes per game in the Championship series against Tampa Bay. Byram can impact the game in so many different ways. He excels as a puck mover because of his high-end skating ability. Byram is not only an effortless mover in all four directions, but he is explosive moving forward, making him a very difficult player to pin down. His decision making with the puck and game management were inconsistent early on in his NHL career, but he has worked hard to improve this. Byram has also worked hard to be a better defensive player and a more imposing physical presence. This was evident in the playoffs, where he really stepped up his physicality to become a suffocating defensive player. Moving forward, the sky is the limit for Byram, so long as he can stay healthy. He has had trouble doing so in his career thus far, but if he can avoid injuries, he should emerge as a top four defender on the Avalanche this coming season (even with their depth) and have his best season to date. - BO

2 - Sean Behrens D

A late second-round pick at the 2021 draft, Sean Behrens quickly silenced any who might have doubted how well his game would work at the college level. Behrens’ five-foot-ten frame didn’t stop him from authoring an excellent freshman campaign, a season that culminated in him winning the NCAA National Championship with the University of Denver. Behrens’ prospect profile shares a lot of similarities with another undersized defenseman, New York Rangers prospect Zac Jones. Like Jones, the two traits of Behrens’ game that stand out the most are his skating and his intelligence. Behrens moves exactly as well as you’d want an undersized defenseman to move, and his mobility gives him upside as a transitional defenseman. Behrens’ stride is extremely smooth and looks almost effortless when he’s picking up the puck in his own zone in order to lead a breakout. Behrens can also be often found reading the play, scanning to see where the best options are and where he can best position himself to help his team. It’s always said that the best players are the ones who go to where the game will be, rather than where it is at any given moment, and Behrens is in the right place at the right time often enough to confidently say he sees the game at a higher level than many of his peers. Will he ever be a dominating two-way force? It’s unlikely, but a future as a top-four, puck-moving defenseman with an offensive bent isn’t out of the question. He’ll just need to get into more high-pressure defensive situations and gain as much confidence and fearlessness in his own end as he has when he’s attacking. - EH

3 - Ben Meyers C

After a highly successful three-year career at the University of Minnesota, center Ben Meyers was the big prize of the 2022 NCAA free agent signing cycle. Meyers, who went undrafted despite two promising seasons as an overager in the USHL, was a centerpiece player at a top NCAA program, even captaining the Gophers as a senior. Meyers’ highly productive senior season earned him caps for the United States men’s teams at the Beijing Olympics and IIHF World Championships. Meyers got into five NHL games with the Avalanche and managed to score his first NHL goal. Meyers has been a past-first center for most of his college career, although he did show off better goal-scoring touch in his final season as a Gopher. As a five-foot-eleven center, Meyers doesn’t offer the prototypical size many in the NHL look for out of their pivots, but he has the offensive flair to make up for it. Meyers’ toolset as a chance creator was on display for all to see last season, and it’s good enough to give him upside as a secondary scorer in the NHL. Meyers’ defense isn’t where he’ll carve out his niche, but that isn’t without trying. Meyers has a solid work ethic, but whether he can stick as a center in the NHL won’t be up to how hard he works, but instead how well he can match up against the high-end scoring centers he’ll face in the NHL. If Meyers spends next season in the NHL, he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie, meaning much of his development has already been completed. If he’s close to a finished product, the package of skills he currently puts forth is likely good enough to give him a chance as a middle-of-the-lineup player who can complement more talented offensive teammates in a pinch. - EH

4 - Oskar Olausson RW

The 28th overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft, Oskar Olausson has had quite the journey since being drafted, but has been able to find success and produce wherever he plays. During the 2020-2021 season, Olausson spent time in three different leagues and was able to adapt well and still find a way to produce. Olausson spent 16 games in the J20 league finishing with 27 points (14G,13A), 16 games in the SHL and finishing with 4 points (3G,1A), and also 11 games in the HockeyAllsvenskan where he finished with 6 points (3G,3A). Olausson also got the opportunity to play in the U20 World Junior Championship. During the 2021-2022 season, Olausson spent time split between both the Barrie Colts and Oshawa Generals, finishing with 49 points (26G,23A) in 55 games, which was 4th on the team for points and 3rd on the team for goals. Olausson’s best assets are his shot and hockey sense. Olausson’s shot is a threat from most areas on the ice, but his ability to fire a cannon of a one-timer is where he’s best. He gets a lot of power and control on his shots, and he understands how to get the most out of it. He also has a great understanding of what he’s good at and knowing how to maximize his strengths. He shows a great understanding of awareness in the offensive zone, knowing where and when to get into open space for a shot, reading the play very well. Going into the 2022-2023 season, Olausson will make his return to the AHL and look to take a step forward and become a scoring threat in the league. - DK

5 - Martin Kaut RW

The clock feels like it’s ticking quickly for Colorado’s 2018 1^st round pick. Having gone 16^th overall that year, the Czech-born Kaut seemed to be on the fast track to making an organizational impact when he immediately jumped to North America and put in a solid rookie season in the AHL accompanied by a nice WJC performance in the 18-19 season. This came on the heels of having spent his draft year playing in Czechia’s top men’s league. His development continued in an upward trajectory in the shortened 19-20 season, where he got into nine NHL games, scoring his first two goals while his AHL stats improved slightly. Expectations were that he’d be prime candidate for an NHL spot during the 20-21 season, which ultimately saw him spend time on the taxi squad as well as the AHL, Czech Republic, and Sweden, featuring decent stats in each of the latter three stations. The 21-22 season presented a new challenge as Kaut went down with a shoulder injury in November. Finally, having picked up the pace a bit in the skating department, the injury threw him back a month after he had gotten into six straight games with the Avalanche, something that didn’t happen again for the rest of the season. A healthy playoff contributor for the AHL squad (five points and +7 in nine games), Kaut’s regular season PPG pace dropped from the season before, even if he did put up a career-high 19 goals. The task at hand is to now crack the line-up of a Stanley Cup winner. In this final year of his ELC, he may benefit from the team’s loss of players such as Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky, but any way you put it, he’s staring at a make-or-break-it season. - CL

6 - Nikolai Kovalenko RW

Nikolai Kovalenko seems to be one of the most likable Russian prospects, yet at the same time one of the most unluckiest of them: while the 2020-21 season had gone totally awry because he found himself in the coach’s doghouse and had to change teams in the offseason, last season, after a solid start, practically ended for him in October after a bad collision with an opposing player, which resulted in a major concussion, sideling him for two months. Once he returned, he just wasn’t the same player. As a consequence, this offseason his team decided that he wouldn’t be as helpful to them as they sought and so they traded him away, this time to Torpedo, which is a rather mediocre team coached by a former NHLer Igor Larionov. On the bright side, the move likely means that Kovalenko is expected to be among the leaders for his new team, possibly even wearing the ‘C’. Upon arrival to Torpedo, Kovalenko extended his contract through the 2023/24 season, which might be not something the Avalanche fans would like, but makes sense for the player, as the main goal for the coming season is both modest and important – to prove that the concussion didn’t ruin his potential. If he succeeds in achieving that goal his hard-working, tenacious, yet still creative playing style can result in a middle-six winger role in the NHL, just maybe a bit later than initially expected. - VF

7 - Justus Annunen G

A hulking 6’4”, 210 lbs., Annunen has been Colorado’s heir apparent for several years now and is coming off his most promising overall season since he was drafted. While his 24-13-5 record for the AHL Colorado Eagles couldn’t hide his 3.01 GAA and .893 save percentage, he picked things up in the playoffs with a 2.46 GAA and .923 save percentage, his best numbers since jumping over to North America. Annunen’s AHL performance earned him a two-game audition with the Avalanche, in which he registered a win and an overtime loss despite mediocre performances. The very athletic Annunen showed improvement to some degree in all departments requiring refinement, such as his movement from post-to-post. He also improved on his already strong puck-tracking abilities. Adept at using his incredible size to stay square to shooters, he continues to show a heavy tendency to spend time on his knees once a shot has been fired and until the whistle blows, even when hugging the post, leaving a hole for shots between his helmet and the crossbar. With the Colorado crease looking like a game of musical chairs in recent seasons, this might be the year Annunen gets a real shot with the reigning champion, especially as the team will kick things off this season with two goalies who have primarily been back-ups thus far in their careers. – CL

8 - Jean-Luc Foudy C

Things haven’t been extremely easy for Foudy the last two seasons. The dynamic skating forward was thrust into the AHL earlier than he was ready due to the cancellation of the 2020-21 OHL season, then continued in the AHL this year, even though he was eligible to return to the OHL. Was this best for his development? You could certainly argue that returning to a strong team in Windsor (who would win the OHL’s Western Conference title) would have been better for his development. Instead, he continued to struggle with consistency, posting a similar point per game average to the year prior. Foudy, much like his brother Liam, is a truly electric skater. He is lightning quick and he can drive play with his feet unlike many at any level. However, it is the rest of his game that remains a work in progress. That includes his play away from the puck, his decision making with it, his strength on the puck and his ability to play through the middle of the ice. However, it is easy to forget how young Foudy is. Under normal circumstances he would be entering into his first AHL season next year. Instead, the 20-year-old will be starting his third. In this year’s AHL playoffs, he was one of Colorado’s best players and that bodes well for the coming year, where he hopefully takes that next step forward and puts himself in contention for a call-up to the Avalanche. - BO

9 - Matthew Stienburg C

A bit of a late bloomer physically, Stienburg suffered through osteomyelitis as a teenager. As such, he’s taken a longer route to relevance as an NHL prospect. First it was St. Andrew’s College, then Cornell, then a year off with the Ivy League not playing during the pandemic. Stienburg returned with a vengeance this past season, leading Cornell in scoring. The power center plays a game tailored for a future bottom six role with the Avalanche. He competes physically. He uses his size to drive the net and dominate near the crease. He plays a 200-foot game. The key for him will be the continued development of his skating. Stienburg will return to Cornell again in 2022-23 and he should continue to be one of the better players in the Ivy League. After that, he would be likely to turn pro in a fairly shallow Colorado system, although returning to Cornell again in 2023-24 is absolutely not out of the question. Logan O’Connor, a similar kind of player, moved very quickly through the system to take on a permanent role with the Avalanche and if all goes according to plan, Stienburg could do the same. - BO

10 - Danila Zhuravlyoy D

Drafted in the fifth round in 2018, Colorado has been very patient with Danila Zhuravylov’s development as he has worked his way up to KHL regular. While his offensive development has been limited, he has become a strong defensive presence in Russia and as such, the Avalanche opted to sign him and bring him into the fold this year. Zhuravylov’s best quality is his mobility. He is not a big defender by any means, but he is effective defensively because of how quick he is to close gaps and how effective he is at defending pace. More of a positional, stick on puck defender, Zhuravylov can play that steady defensive first game, perhaps partnering with a more offensively oriented defender. That said, the KHL can sometimes hide the offensive talents of young defenders and if he can gain confidence in his play with the puck and ability to use his skating ability to be a puck carrier, perhaps Zhuravylov does have two-way upside. As is, he looks like a potential third pairing defender who can handle penalty killing assignments and be a steady, yet unspectacular presence. More will be known about his NHL upside and the likelihood of reaching it after his season with Colorado of the AHL this year. - BO

11 -Sampo Ranta

A speedy winger with size, Ranta was a major disappointment in his first full pro season. It is starting to look like his NHL upside might be capped.

12 - Mikhail Maltsev

Acquired from New Jersey in the Ryan Graves deal, Maltsev is a big winger with some skill who is close to being ready to take on a full-time role in the NHL with the Avalanche.

13 - Ivan Zhigalov

The big Belarussian netminder was one of our highest ranked goaltenders for the draft this year. He is athletic, but very raw. Zhigalov will play in Kingston of the OHL this year after spending last year in the QMJHL.

14 - Colby Ambrosio

An undersized, but skilled center, Ambrosio plays for Boston College. He is entering his junior season and will be looking to improve his production by becoming better off the puck and stronger on it.

15 - Tyler Weiss

Is Weiss even still Colorado property? Remains to be seen. He could return to UNO for another year (because of the pandemic), which would extend the Avalanche’s rights to him. Weiss is a skilled forward with an attacking mentality.

16 - Andrei Buyalsky

Buyalsky’s freshman season at Vermont was almost entirely wiped out by injury. The highly skilled forward will look to get his development back on track as a sophomore this year.

17 - Alex Beaucage

Beaucage, a big winger with a big shot, struggled in his first taste of pro hockey last season. Adapting to the increased pace of play was an issue for him. A rebound season in his second year would really help the Colorado system.

18 - Shane Bowers

A former first round selection by Ottawa, Bowers was a key piece in the Matt Duchene deal several moons ago. Thus far he has yet to look like an NHL player at the AHL level and now will need to clear waivers to be sent to the Eagles.

19 - Wyatt Aamodt

A dependable, stay at home defender, Aamodt was signed by the Avalanche this offseason after four years at Minnesota State University.

20 - Callahan Burke

The former University of Notre Dame captain was originally playing in Colorado (AHL) on a minor league deal, but the Avs scooped him up halfway through this year, signing him to an ELC. A solid energy player and penalty killer, Burke could one day become a Logan O’Connor type.

2021 NHL DRAFT: CENTRAL DIVISION REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 03 Sep 2021 21:33:40 +0000

2021 NHL Draft Review

Time to review the draft, in depth. As I have done in previous seasons, this review will cover the league one division at a time. For each team, we will offer a quick summary of their draft class, a deeper look at their first pick/first rounder(s), and then a look at what we think to be the best value pick of their draft class, and a final look at their worst value pick. Once the divisions have all been covered, a final article will go over some other miscellaneous trends of the draft that was (odds & ends), and the annual McKeens shadow draft class. Let’s dig in.

Central Division

Dylan Guenther. Photo by Andy Devlin

Arizona Coyotes

1 (9) Dylan Guenther, RW, Edmonton (WHL)

2 (37) Josh Doan, RW, Chicago (USHL)

2 (43) Ilya Fedotov, LW, Chaika Nizhny Novgorod (MHL)

2 (60) Janis Jerome Moser, D, EHC Biel-Bienne (NL)

4 (107) Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, D, Sparta Sarpsborg (Norway)

4 (122) Rasmus Korhonen, G, Assat U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

5 (139) Manix Landry, C, Gatineau (QMJHL)

6 (171) Cal Thomas, D, Maple Grove HS (USHS-MN)

7 (223) Sam Lipkin, LW, Chicago (USHL)

New General Manager Bill Armstrong’s first draft for the Coyotes (he was GM at the 2020 draft, but per the terms of his contract, was not allowed to participate in the draft) was a curious one. Looking at not being involved on Day One, he pulled off a morning of the draft blockbuster, sending Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland to Vancouver for a package including three overpriced veterans each on their final year under contract, and three draft picks, including a top ten pick in this draft, a second rounder next year, and a seventh rounders in 2023. This trade followed a similar deal made a few days prior, where Arizona picked up the dying contract of Andrew Ladd from the Islanders for a second-round selection, and picks in future drafts. The last trade on the draft floor (so to speak) saw the Coyotes leverage their extra picks in later years by sending a 2022 seventh rounder to Montreal for a late seventh rounder this year.

What made the Arizona draft curious though, were not the trades, but many the players they selected. The first pick was a chalk selection, as Dylan Guenther was a top ten talent for anyone, in any draft class. After taking that WHL star, the Coyotes focused almost exclusively on Europeans and college-bound players, with one exception in the fifth round. Furthermore, almost without exception, the players they selected after Guenther were drafted higher than expected, often by a long distance. That one QMJHL player was also the only pick they made of a player standing under 6-0” tall. The final note here goes to their first of three second rounders, Josh Doan, son of Coyotes’ legend Shane Doan, who was invited to announce the pick. A second-year eligible player, the younger Doan may be seen as a nepotism pick by some, but those people will not be familiar with the player. One of the most improved players in the USHL this year, Doan at pick 37 is maybe a touch high, but that is within range of where he belonged, if on the high end of that range. He is advanced enough to be paying dividends to the Coyotes sooner than later.

First round pick – Dylan Guenther, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 9^th overall

One of the biggest, purely offensive weapons in the draft class, there was no guarantee that Guenther would be available at pick nine, as he grades out as plus almost across the board. He has a big shot, is a talented puck handler, skates very well, and reads the game very well without shirking duties in his own end. He has the size, and the strength should come, although he is not naturally physically aggressive. That said, he is not shy and will play in the greasy areas and take punishment to make something good happen for his team. After a few years of drafting players for their maturity and two-way sensibilities, Guenther is a nice change of pace as a projected top line scoring winger.

Best value pick(s) –Manix Landry, C, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL), 139^th overall

As mentioned above, Landry was the only player selected by Arizona this year who stands under 6-0” tall. Not by much, by 5-11” isn’t 6-0”. Already the Gatineau captain in his draft year, he doesn’t have top six projection, and none of his physical tools really sticks out, but he has always been able to maximize what he has with the hockey IQ expected of the son of an NHLer (Father Eric played briefly with Montreal and Calgary and for many years in Europe afterwards). The younger Landry also plays gritty enough and with enough energy and positive intangible qualities to be a bottom six option in a few years. Not an exciting pick, but very good value for the fifth round.

Worst value pick – Ilya Fedotov, LW, Chaika Nizhny Novgorod (MHL), 43^rd overall

There were other options for this slot, but they were later rounders. Seventh rounder Sam Lipkin didn’t look like an NHL draft pick in my many viewings of him with Chicago. Sixth rounder Cal Thomas was maybe the third best NHL prospect on his high school team and the second-best defender after the undrafted Henry Nelson. Fourth rounder Emil Martinsen Lilleberg was playing in Norway and was in his third year of eligibility, but in fairness, Swedish teams had already taken notice and he will be in the SHL next year. So Fedotov gets the nod here as the Russian winger was taken in the middle of the second round and we don’t know that he does anything at a level high enough to profile to a top six or middle six slot. His production also doesn’t suggest a player who produces above his tools. He is a lanky young man who skates well and has some decent playmaking ability but is overly mistake prone and reactive. Arizona scouts clearly disagree but we think they could have nabbed him far later if they would have waited.

Allan_Nolan (2) photo by Keith Hershmiller

Chicago Blackhawks

1 (32) Nolan Allan, D, Prince Albert (WHL)

2 (62) Colton Dach, C, Saskatoon (WHL)

3 (91) Taige Harding, D, Fort McMurray (AJHL)

4 (105) Ethan Del Mastro, D, Mississauga (OHL)

4 (108) Victor Stjernborg, C, Vaxjo HC (SHL)

6 (172) Ilya Safonov, C, Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)

7 (204) Connor Kelley, D, Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA/NCHC)

7 (216) Jalen Luypen, C, Edmonton (WHL)

Like a number of other teams this year, Chicago went big at the draft. By which, I mean that they went almost exclusively for big players. Their first four selections measure in at 6-2”, 6-4”, 6-7”, 6-4”. Among the back half are two more big guys, and two at 5-10”, but even one of that latter duo weights over 200 pounds. Considering the lack of scouting opportunities this year, size doesn’t need too many looks to assess. Other notable points about the Blackhawks’ draft class include the even split between centers and blueliners, as the team did not select any goalies or wingers, and that fact that fully half of their draft class came from Western Canada, none of whom appeared in more than 28 games last year. Finally, as you may have heard, the team used their second-round pick on Saskatoon center Colton Dach, younger brother on current Blackhawks’ rising center Kirby Dach, a pick made the day after they traded for Seth Jones, teaming him up with brother Caleb, the return from another offseason trade.

I do have to wonder how, if at all, Chicago’s draft class would have differed were they not able to come to an agree with Columbus on the eve of the draft to acquire Seth Jones and the last pick of round one, in exchange for Adam Boqvist and pick 12 (a few other picks went in each direction in this trade). What direction would Chicago have headed with pick 12? Would they have taken the most powerful player available at that time, found another way to trade to do so, or even taken one of the two top goalies? We can’t know for sure, but we do know that the draft had started to overweight size and strength by the time Chicago selected Nolan Allan to end day one and can only assume that their strategy changed after the domino effect put into motion by Ottawa’s selection of Tyler Boucher at #10 overall.

First round pick – Nolan Allan, D, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL), 32^nd overall

Once upon a time a top three pick in the WHL Bantam Draft, Allan has since developed into a poised and reliable own zone defender. He makes the first pass to kickstart the transition. He can be relied upon to defend against the opposition’s best at the junior level. He played a similar role, including PK time, for Team Canada at the recent WU18s, helping his nation to a Gold. The offensive promise that he showed in AAA hockey in Saskatchewan has not yet shown up in the WHL. While not completely useless in the offensive zone, he is a fifth wheel of sorts. If Chicago is current about Allan, he is a number four in the mold of Nicklas Hjalmarsson. If not, he will be more of a number six along the lines of a different former Blackhawk, Slater Koekkoek.

Best value pick – Ethan Del Mastro, D, Mississauga Steelheads, OHL, 105^th overall

Think Nolan Allan, but two inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. Del Mastro is similarly a big, stay at home defender who was highly touted as a Bantam player, showed minimal offensive ability as a junior, although he has had far less time to prove himself at that level due to the OHL cancellation last year. He even played a similar role as Allan for Team Canada at the U18 championships, albeit Del Mastro was rustier with the puck. Del Mastro’s upside and downside are similar to those of Allan but getting the former in the fourth round makes it tremendous value.

Worst value pick – Taige Harding, D, Fort McMurray Oil Barons, AJHL, 91^st overall

A giant (6-7”, 236) in his second year of draft eligibility, Harding added a bit of offense from the blueline this year, going from six points in 46 games in his first draft year, to 13 in 16 games this year. The son of an old Hartford Whalers draft pick, the younger Harding learned to use his size to better establish positioning and succeeded as a 19-year-old in the AJHL. The problem with the pick, beyond the player not really having a clear NHL skillset, is that he likely could have been drafted far later than the third round, indicating that the Blackhawks overvalued him to a large degree.

Södertäljes Oskar Olausson under ishockeymatchen i Hockeyallsvenskan mellan Södertälje och AIK den 29 januari 2021 i Södertälje.
Foto: Kenta Jönsson / BILDBYRÅN

Colorado Avalanche

1 (20) Oskar Olausson, RW, HV 71 (SHL)

2 (47) Sean Behrens, D, USNTDP (USHL)

3 (92) Andrei Buyalsky, C, Dubuque (USHL)

7 (220) Taylor Makar, C/LW, Brooks (AJHL)

Not much to say here. Three forwards with good size and one blueliner deciding lacking in size. Of the four picks, the last three will be moving on to college hockey next season, while the first-round pick, the one drafted out of Europe, will be coming to North America to play in the OHL. It is fair to point out that the Avalanche have generally stayed clear of the CHL over the last few drafts, and Olausson is likely to be the only player in the system playing Canadian Major-Junior next season.

If a trend can be spotted out of four picks, it is a complete disregard for drafting young, first-time eligibles. Second rounder Behrens is the only 2003 born player among the quartet. Olausson is a late-birthday 2002 player, while the other two picks are not only re-drafts, but multiple re-drafts. Buyalsky was in his fourth year of eligibility and Makar was in his third year.

First round pick – Oskar Olausson, RW, HV 71 (SHL), 28^th overall

Like all junior aged players in Sweden, Olausson was forced to join the SHL once the junior leagues were cancelled around mid-season due to the pandemic. That said, Olausson was in the process of forcing his way up to the SHL anyway, with 27 points in 16 games before a stint with the Swedish WJC team and a brief period in the second tier HockeyAllsvenskan. He brings a big frame, plus skating and stickhandling and a lack of ego enabling to take on a bottom six role as needed, with the willingness to do the unheralded dirty work in his own zone. He could develop into a decent middle six player with special teams utililty.

Best value pick – Sean Behrens, D, USNTDP (USHL), 47^th overall

While lacking in the size that seemed to be all the rage at the draft this year, Behrens plays a fearless style of hockey, and you rarely notice his dimensional disadvantage on the ice. His skill set is moderate, but he always wrings every ounce of it from his body, pushing the pace and setting his team up for success in all zones. Headed to the University of Denver, the Avalanche will be keeping a close eye on Behrens, whose overall game is not too dissimilar to that of former Pioneer stalwart Ian Mitchell. I believe that he will be able to fit into an Avalanche blueline that already features the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard, acting as the more stable presence while the others play more dynamically.

Worst value pick – Andrei Buyalsky, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL), 92^nd overall

To be clear, I don’t think that Buyalsky was a bad pick at all, but the other option was a late seventh rounder, and Taylor Makar’s selection was suspiciously close to the announcement that his older brother Cale had signed a long-term contract extension with the club. Was the drafting of Taylor a quiet stipulation of his agreement to terms? Maybe. Either way, Taylor is a big winger who has demonstrated good playmaking at the AJHL level, even if he is already 20 years old, and there is scarcely such thing as a risk in the seventh round. As for Buyalsky, he is even older than Makar, turning 21 a few weeks after the draft. A speedster from Kazakhstan, he came to North America last December to play in the USHL and immediately added an exciting element to Dubuque’s attack. He is painfully thin but has decent skill to go along with his wheels. The only real element of risk in his pick is his age, which indicates less room for growth. In a draft class with more than four players, Buyalsky would be very unlikely to be featured in this spot.

Wyatt Johnston of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Dallas Stars

1 (23) Wyatt Johnson, RW, Windsor (OHL)

2 (47) Logan Stankoven, C, Kamloops (WHL)

2 (48) Artyom Grushnikov, D, Hamilton (OHL)

3 (73) Ayrton Martino, LW, Omaha (USHL)

3 (79) Justin Ertel, LW, Western Capitals (MJAHL)

4 (111) Conner Roulette, LW, Seattle (WHL)

5 (138) Jack Bar, D, Chicago (USHL)

5 (143) Jacob Holmes, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

6 (175) Francesco Arcuri, C, Steel Wings Linz (AplsHL)/Kingston (OHL)

7 (207) Albert Sjoberg, LW, Sodertalje SK J20 (J20 Nationell)

The previous few Dallas drafts prior to 2020 were marked by an abundance of lower upside, “safer” picks. They had physical gifts, but skill was lacking (Miro Heiskanen was an exception). Even 2019, with Thomas Harley, an offensive defender, as their first rounder, saw the team draft for safety with their other picks. While that approach sometimes leads to a late rounder blooming into a bottom of the lineup player, more often than not it leads to a player who doesn’t even garner an Entry-Level Contract. The 2020 draft saw Dallas go in another direction, selecting three forwards with skills to dream on. Sure, they might bust, but those low upside guys also have bust as their respective floors. Anyway, when Dallas named two-way center Wyatt Johnston as their 2021 first rounder, I immediately thought of Ty Dellandrea, a player with a similar profile at the time he was drafted. More smarts than skills, and by a mile. A solid pick for the second round, but not so much on Day One.

More on Johnston soon, but Dallas did a 180 on Day Two, stocking the system with high upside prospect after high upside prospect, giving them, all things considered, one of the draft classes I am most optimistic about in the league. Overwhelmingly North American, only one of their ten players selected don’t have some pre-existing ties to a North American league. They stayed away from goalies, a position of relative strength in the system. And even shied away from defensemen, with only three of the ten players known to patrol the blueline. Unlike many other teams, they were not too concerned with size, and Dallas was the landing spot for a few smaller players who fell further than their respective talent levels would have dictated. The 2021 draft class has the strength to be organization defining for a generation.

First round pick – Wyatt Johnston, C, Windsor Spitfires (OHL), 23^rd overall

A tremendous forechecker, Johnston, despite his pedigree as a sixth overall pick in the OHL Priority Selection two years ago, has not shown much offensive punch. Due to the cancellation of the OHL last year, his only game action in the last 12 months was a bottom six role for Team Canada at the WU18s. He was a valuable member of that Gold Medal winning team, but even there he didn’t show as a probable first round pick. He will do the little things right, paying attention to detail, and playing hard in all three zones. His stick work is good enough for a bottom six role, and he has a grinder’s mentality, but will need to improve his skating to reach that ceiling.

Best value pick – Logan Stankoven, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL), 47^th overall

While Johnston was a role playing for Team Canada, Stankoven was the team’s third highest scoring draft eligible forward. He is a fantastic stick handler, playing courageous at both ends. He recognizes opportunities in an instant and has the skills to capitalize on them. His ability to put the puck in the net is up there with anyone drafted this summer. He is also a gifted skater, with great edges and four-way mobility. So why was he still available in the middle of the second round? Because he is 5-8”. The NHL, as a group, is still deciphering the lessons of Alex DeBrincat and Cole Caufield. Stankoven will join that duo and continue to change minds about the need for size in the NHL.

Without giving profiles of them here, Dallas had quite a few high value picks this year, and I should at least mention Ayrton Martino, Jack Bar, Francesco Arcuri, Conner Roulette, and Albert Sjoberg as steals where they were selected.

Worst value pick – Justin Ertel, LW, Summerside Western Capitals (MJAHL), 79^th overall

While I had some mild concerns about Artyom Grushnikov and Jacob Holmes, neither of whom played at all last season, they had decent pre-draft year pedigrees, and both were expected to be drafted and were drafted near those expectations. Ertel is a different case. He was planning to play for St. Andrew’s the prestigious Ontario prep school, as a stepping stone to NCAA hockey at Cornell, but hockey was cancelled all over Ontario, not just in the OHL, so Ertel went to the Maritimes to play in the relatively obscure MJAHL. He showed enough skill and hockey smarts to gain notice of draft-worthiness, but there is little reason to think that he wouldn’t have still been available two rounds later than the Stars made the move for him. With a draft class of this strength, it won’t hurt Dallas, but it was a bit of a head-scratcher.

210121 Luleås målvakt Jesper Wallstedt under ishockeymatchen i SHL mellan Luleå och Växjö den 21 januari 2021 i Luleå.
Foto: Simon Eliasson / BILDBYRÅN / COP 159 / SE0026

Minnesota Wild

1 (20) Jesper Wallstedt, G, Lulea HF (SHL)

1 (26) Carson Lambos, D, JYP U20 (U20 SM-sarja)/Winnipeg (WHL)

2 (54) Jack Peart, D, Fargo (USHL)

3 (86) Caedan Bankier, C, Kamloops (WHL)

4 (118) Kyle Masters, D, Red Deer (WHL)

4 (127) Josh Pillar, C, Kamloops (WHL)

6 (182) Nate Benoit, D, Mount St. Charles HS (USHS-RI)

At the cost of a late third round pick, Minnesota traded up two spots in the first round, and snagged the goalie most pundits and scouts – including ourselves – rated as the top goaltender in the draft. We have historically been shy about ranking goalies as first rounders in the past, Wallstedt was an obvious first rounder, who is technically refined, experienced at high levels, and checks all of the boxes for a future NHL starter. More on him soon. The Wild had a second first rounder, and snagged a top defensive prospect in Carson Lambos, a player who might have been off the board much earlier if not for a medical concern that cropped up late in the season.

If the Minnesota draft was just those two first rounders, it would be cause for great optimism for the Wild and their fans. But they continued to pick up good upside, focusing on the blueline, where they used three of their remaining five picks, including one – second rounder Peart – who we had rated as having first round value. The other notable element of the Minnesota draft class was their clear lean towards the WHL, from where four of their seven picks emerged. Even if only Wallstedt lives up to his advanced billing, this draft will be monumental for the Wild. In that case, all other NHL contributions from the remainder of the draft class will be bonuses. And we think there will be more.

First first round pick – Jesper Wallstedt, G, Lulea HF (SHL), 20^th overall

We were not alone in ranking Wallstedt as the best goalie in the 2021 draft. In fact, the Detroit Red Wings may have been the only team that preferred Sebastian Cossa (probably not, but they were in the minority). Furthermore, we believe that Wallstedt is more advanced at this stage than either Yaroslav Askarov or Spencer Knight were in the past two years. His ability to read the play is especially impressive, helping him stay prepared for whatever the opposition is cooking up. His other tools all also grade out as above average and better. He has a year remaining on his SHL contract and should be competing for time in the Minnesota crease by 2022-23.

Second first round pick – Carson Lambos, D, JYP U20 (U20 SM-sarja)/Winnipeg ICE (WHL)

A smooth, fast skater with a well-rounded tool kit through the rest of his game, Lambos already had a very impressive WHL rookie campaign under his belt before the pandemic threatened his follow-up. During the enforced layoff, he had the chance to keep playing in Finland, for the JYP organization, and he excelled in their junior ranks, making a seamless adjustment from the North American game. Lambos expected to return to the WHL at the end of his Finnish experience, but two games after he got back to Winnipeg, an undisclosed medical issue emerged that forced him off the ice again. His medicals are reportedly fine now, giving Minnesota a second first rounder drafted substantially later than was expected before the year began.

Best value pick – Jack Peart, D, Fargo Force (USHL), 54^th overall

To be honest, Minnesota’s best value picks were their two first rounders, but getting Jack Peart at #54 was a third coup for Bill Guerin and the Wild. After crushing in the Minnesota high school ranks at Grand Rapids HS, Peart went back to Fargo of the USHL where he showed zero issue adjusting to the vastly improved level of play. By the postseason, he was the Force’s number one defender, helping lead the team to the Clark Cup finals. Peart is not physically imposing, but his reads and decision making are both incredibly impressive, convincing us to give him a first round ranking in our draft guide. Peart is also the third Minnesota Mr. Hockey to have been drafted by the Wild

Worst value pick – Caiden Bankier, C, Kamloops Blazers (WHL), 86^th overall

As much as we loved Minnesota’s first three picks, the remainder of their selections left us unmoved. None of the four was especially egregious, but third rounder Bankier was their first reach, so he gets the dreaded ‘Worst Value Pick’ spot here. He has good size and decent creativity with the puck, but nothing about his game suggests top size potential, and his style hasn’t fit bottom six characteristics either. In other words, he looks like a tweener. That’s totally fine in the fifth round or later but is gearing for disappointment as a third rounder.

Fyodor Svechkov. Photo by Dan Hickling/Hickling Images

Nashville Predators

1 (19) Fyodor Svechkov, C, Lada Togliatti (VHL)

1 (27) Zachary L’Heureux, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)

3 (72) Anton Olsson, D, Malmo (SHL)

4 (115) Ryan Ufko, D, Chicago (USHL)

4 (124) Jack Matier, D, Ottawa (OHL)

6 (179) Simon Knak, RW, HC Davos (NL)

As the first round was proceeding, the Predators decided that they would rather have two first round picks than have one first and two seconds, and I can’t say that I disagree. The Carolina Hurricanes felt differently, and a trade was born, allowing Nashville to finish Day One with two new talented forwards to add to their prospect pool. To make up for the forward lean on Day One, they went heavily on defense on Day Two, using the first three of their remaining four picks on blueliners.

Curiously, the Predators returned to Carolina on Day Two for another trade up scenario, moving up 11 spots in Round Three by sacrificing their fifth-round pick. With two moves of this nature, it seems fairly clear that Nashville had specific prospects targeted and preferred to miss out on an extra lower probability player in order to secure the player they really wanted. In the end, they have added six new talents to their pool, all of whom have reasonable claims to a future in the NHL. A final, minor note, Nashville didn’t seem to get caught up in the size rush this year, with only one of their six picks measuring in with above-average size, in fourth round blueline Jack Matier.

First first round pick – Fyodor Svechkov, C, Lada Togliatti (VHL), 19^th overall

A well-rounded offensive force who plays with an exciting combination of pace and touch, Svechkov had a very strong regular season split between Russian juniors (MHL) and the nation’s second tier senior league (VHL). But he really shot into wider prominence with a thrilling performance at the WU18s, where his ability to move the puck in the offensive zone was mesmerizing. Nashville has never been shy about drafting Russian players at the top of their draft classes, and Svechkov is next in line. He could be ready for the NHL once his Russian league contract expires after the 2022-23 season.

Second first round pick – Zachary L’Heureux, LW, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

The former third overall pick in the QMJHL Entry Draft, L’Heureux solidified his status as one of the top draft talents out of the Q with a well-rounded game that emphasizes a wicked shot and a prominent aggressive nature. That latter aspect turned off a few teams and prognosticators, as it led to a pair of suspensions for the winger last year, forcing him to miss time as his team competed for postseason standings. Notably, neither suspension occurred due to a normal, run-of-play type incident, but due to behavior that was, or at least should have been avoidable. Assuming that maturity could stem those types of behaviors in the future, he profiles as a force in a middle six role.

Best value pick – Ryan Ufko, D, Chicago Steel (USHL), 115^th overall & Jack Matier, D, Ottawa 67s (OHL), 124^th overall

These two are of a pair, both defenders being selected in the fourth round by Nashville, when both could easily have been off the board a full round or more earlier than when the Predators finally announced their names around half an hour apart. Although both blueliners are right-handed shots, the rest of their respective profiles couldn’t be more different. Ufko is small, but vicious, with a pronounced aggressive streak and a huge point shot. His skating needs a little work, but he is headed to a defensive factory at UMass and big things should be in his immediate future. Matier is huge, but skates well. He missed the year due to the OHL cancellation, but looked sharp at the WU18s, showing enough puck movement skills that he can profile to at least be viable in a third pairing role if paired with a more dynamic player. Either or both of Ufko and Matier could play a role in the NHL, which is more than can be said for many fourth rounders.

Worst value pick – Anton Olsson, D, Malmo Redhawks (SHL), 72^nd overall

We were probably lower on Olsson as a draft prospect than most other venues, but on its face, a third-round pick for the Swedish defender is not bad value. The only reason he ends up here is that Nashville traded up to get him, so his cost is both the #72 pick, as well as pick #147. Olsson can look good at times, but his feel for the game offensively can also be sorely lacking, leading to questions about his upside. If Olson in the third round is a team’s worst value pick, that team had a pretty good draft.

Zachary Bolduc. Photo courtesy of the QMJHL.

St. Louis Blues

1 (17) Zachary Bolduc, C, Rimouski (QMJHL)

3 (71) Simon Robertsson, RW, Skelleftea AIK (SHL)

5 (145) Tyson Galloway, D, Calgary (WHL)

7 (198) Ivan Vorobyov, RW, Mamonty Yugry (MHL)

One of the smallest draft classes this year, the Blues will benefit from also snapping up perhaps the best value pick in the entire draft. Not much else to state about their draft, as there was no other clear trend in their selections. The four players are all from different geographical locations and range from undersized (Vorobyov) to supersized (Galloway). If their top two picks pan out, this draft class will be deemed a success. If not, it will be a failure. With smaller draft classes, there is no room for error.

First round pick – Zachary Bolduc, C, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL), 17^th overall

A playmaking, two-way center, Bolduc’s production in his draft year was a mild disappointment, with point-per-game rates very similar to what he put up in the previous season, albeit with a vastly different shape. Whereas he scored almost three goals for every assist in 2019-20, last year the ratio was practically flipped, with nearly two assists for every goal scored. At times, his play seemed passive, which could impact his effectiveness, but a touch of added confidence should help him grow in all three zones, into a solid middle six center projection.

Best value pick – Simon Robertsson, RW, Skelleftea AIK (SHL), 71^st overall

Granted, we had Robertsson ranked too high for the draft. We focused too much on his discrete tools – which are all individually very impressive – and less on his overall game and how those tools all work together. The son of former NHL defender Bert Robertsson, young Simon split his draft year between the Swedish junior ranks, which he dominated before the league was cancelled half-way through, and the SHL, where his ice time and impact were both severely limited. He wore a letter for Sweden at the U18s, and performed fine, if not exceptionally. Robertsson has easy top six upside if he can put it all together, and bottom six value if he doesn’t. Getting that in the middle of the third round is a heist, and the Blues knew it, trading up with San Jose to get this pick, at the cost of a later third rounder and a sixth-round pick.

Worst value pick – Ivan Vorobyov, RW, Mamonty Yugry (MHL), 198^th overall

A seventh-round pick would rarely be chosen for this dishonor, but the Blues didn’t give us much to choose from. Their first three picks ranged from solid to exceptional vis-à-vis draft value. Vorobyov is a second time eligible winger who still hasn’t filled out a severely underdeveloped frame. He put up good numbers in the MHL last year (6^th leading scorer among the U19 set, with more stress on playmaking than finishing. Four games over the last two years in the VHL, Russia’s second men’s league constitute his sole experiences above junior hockey, and he has never been selected to represent Russia internationally, even for exhibition games. He is no more a gamble than any player picked in the seventh round, but for St. Louis, he is the biggest gamble of their 2021 draft class.

Chaz Lucius. Photo courtesy of USA Hockey/Rena Laverty

Winnipeg Jets

1 (18) Chaz Lucius, C, USNTDP (USHL)

2 (50) Nikita Chibrikov, RW, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (VHL)

3 (82) Dmitri Kuzmin, D, Dinamo Molodechno (Belarus)

5 (146) Dmitri Rashevsky, RW, Dynamo St. Petersburg (VHL)

I can simply repeat much of what was written in this section about the St. Louis draft class. Winnipeg drafted only four players, and at least three of them already look like great value selections. Also like the Blues, the Jets selected three forwards and one defender. If four is enough of a sample size to detect any trends (it usually isn’t), we can at least note that three of Winnipeg’s four picks were out of Russia/former Soviet Union states, although one of those players is expected to move to North America as soon as next season, with third rounder, defender Dmitri Kuzmin signing his Entry Level Contract. His most likely next destination is in the OHL, where Flint controls his CHL player rights.

The above paragraph notwithstanding, Winnipeg hasn’t drafted seven or more players in a single year since 2017, and they had not even drafted six players in a season since 2018. It is exceedingly difficult to maintain a competitive organization when your team has only four or five picks every year while other teams are selecting seven or more. It will be interesting to see if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff continues to trade picks for present help or finally starts to hold onto those assets.

First round pick – Chaz Lucius, C, USNTDP (USHL), 18^th overall

Although his draft year was impacted at both beginning and end by injury, Lucius showed more than enough when he was healthy enough to take the ice that the first half projections placed on him previously were accurate. He was expected to go even higher in fact, but his foot speed was seemingly impacted by his pre-season knee surgery and that may have caused him to slide a few spots to Winnipeg. Skating aside, Lucius is a special offensive talent. His sense of timing and positioning lead to the bulk of his goals – helped along by a quick shot, of course – but he can also contribute as a playmaker thanks to his great ability to read the defense and exploit the smallest of gaps. He could explode with a fully healthy freshman season at Minnesota.

Best value pick – Nikita Chibrikov, RW, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (VHL), 50^th overall

Like St. Louis, Winnipeg managed to grab a player on Day Two who we had ranked as a first round talent. In this case, Chibrikov is small, but very feisty, and in possession of an exceptional offensive skill set. A creative player with high-energy, his development can go in a number of ways, and his ultimate projection will follow accordingly. Greater offensive consistency is all that stands in his way for a top six outcome, but the energy, reads, and overall mobility would also fit in a bottom six, disruptor role. A full year playing against men in Russia will go a ways towards unveiling his continued path.

Worst value pick – Dmitri Rashevsky, RW, Dynamo St. Petersburg (VHL), 146^th overall

This is once more not truly a low value pick. Rashevsky led the top Russian league, the MHL, in goals scored in 2019-20, his second year of draft eligibility, but went undrafted. Now 20 years old, and still exceptionally thin, he made his senior hockey debut last year and was pretty solid, especially in his time in the second tier VHL, where he put up 22 points in 30 games split between two teams. Rashevsky is not currently under contract in Russia, although there has yet to be any indication that Winnipeg wants to lock him in place just yet. If there is a low value element to this pick, it is the question of what is different about Rashevsky now than in the previous two years where he wasn’t selected? Even if there is no difference, perhaps the true answer is that he simply should have been drafted last year.

2021 NHL DRAFT: COLORADO AVALANCE REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 03 Sep 2021 20:37:47 +0000

Södertäljes Oskar Olausson under ishockeymatchen i Hockeyallsvenskan mellan Södertälje och AIK den 29 januari 2021 i Södertälje.
Foto: Kenta Jönsson / BILDBYRÅN

Colorado Avalanche

1 (20) Oskar Olausson, RW, HV 71 (SHL)

2 (47) Sean Behrens, D, USNTDP (USHL)

3 (92) Andrei Buyalsky, C, Dubuque (USHL)

7 (220) Taylor Makar, C/LW, Brooks (AJHL)

First round pick – Oskar Olausson, RW, HV 71 (SHL), 28^th overall

Best value pick – Sean Behrens, D, USNTDP (USHL), 47^th overall

Worst value pick – Andrei Buyalsky, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL), 92^nd overall

2021 NHL DRAFT: Re-Entry Candidates – 2nd and 3rd Year Eligible Prospects to Watch – Part Three: USA

Wed, 09 Jun 2021 19:12:30 +0000

In a normal year, scouting hockey is marred by imperfection. Every year high end players get skipped over at the NHL draft for various reasons. Maybe they suffered through injuries. Maybe their team struggled, and it prevented scouts from getting a good read on them. Maybe their team was too good, forcing them down the depth chart with limited minutes and exposure opportunities. Or...maybe they just were not good enough. But thankfully human development is nonlinear and therefore unpredictable. Teenage hockey players are far from a finished product on the ice as their games mature just as the rest of their body and mind does. That is why it is critical to track players as they move through their second and third years of draft eligibility (or fourth years of eligibility for some European players).

However, this has certainly not been a normal year. Given that play for some leagues has been limited or even nonexistent (the OHL), one has to wonder if NHL scouts may choose to select more players who narrowly went undrafted last year; the top remaining ones from their list a year ago. This is especially true if said players have shown positive progression this season.

North American players with birth dates from January 1st to September 15th, will be eligible for three NHL drafts. Players with birth dates from September 16th to December 31st, will be eligible for two NHL drafts. And for European players (in European leagues), extend that eligibility by one year in both cases. Recently, NHL scouts have increased the rate with which they are selecting “re-entry” candidates, or players previously passed over. Contract limits have made it critical for teams to spread out where they select players from, in addition to their age. This has made second- and third-year eligible U.S. and European based players especially attractive. However, these players have had a lot of success in recent years too. The reigning Vezina trophy winner in the NHL and one of the best goaltenders in the league was one; Connor Hellebuyck.

Last year, eight “re-entry” candidates went in the Top 100; Yegor Chinahkov, Mason Lohrei, Yegor Sokolov, Gage Goncalves, Nico Daws, Trevor Kuntar, Daniil Chechelev, Sam Stange. In our “second chances” article last year (Part 1: Part 2: Part 3:) we wrote about five of these eight. In total there were 41 taken, right in line with the trend of over 40 being selected in other recent drafts (roughly about 20% of all players selected). Additionally, of those 41, we identified and wrote about 18 in our aforementioned second chances series. Just like in previous editions of this annual report, we aim to identify more.

In 2021, we have some very interesting candidates. Cameron Rowe and Josh Lopina were two of the best freshmen in the NCAA this season. Josh Doan, the son of former Arizona Coyotes star Shane Doan, has exploded with the Chicago Steel of the USHL. Zakhar Bardakov had a terrific World Junior Championships and has played well in the KHL. Speaking of the WJC’s, Florian Elias was a breakout star for Germany at the event. Swiss defender Janis Moser has had the best U21 season in NLA history for a blueliner. And of course many CHL players have stood out too (even transplanted OHL players). This article intends to highlight them and many other candidates who could be part of that 20% this year.

USA

NCAA

Travis Treloar - Center - Ohio State (Big 10)

There was some thought that Treloar might get drafted last year as a re-entry after a solid second season in the USHL with Lincoln. He ended up leading the Stars in scoring and his 35 assists on the year were top 5 in the league. But there were still too many holes in his game for NHL scouts’ liking. This year, he continued to prove doubters wrong with a fantastic freshman season at Ohio State, where he led the Buckeyes in scoring (20 points in 25 games). With a 0.80 points per game average, Treloar was top 10 among all freshmen, ahead of many NHL drafted prospects.

“Born in Sweden to a Canadian father and a Norwegian mother, Treloar was raised in Sweden with some time in Norway as well, before relocating to New Jersey at age 16 to play AAA hockey for the New Jersey Avalanche program before moving on to the USHL, where he spent two seasons – his first two years of draft eligibility. Treloar had his moments in the USHL, first with Chicago and later with Lincoln. However, in both seasons he started strong, showing impressive playmaking chops on top of an adequate two-way game, but in each case, petered off in the second half. To his credit, the season was further along before he faded in his second time through the USHL. My observations led me to believe that the slowdown was largely due to physical exhaustion, as he was – and still is – physically slight, but if you think his current 5-11”, 176 lbs is small, remember that he was even leaner last year and the year before that.

Once again this year Treloar started off on fire, now as a freshman with Ohio State. After being shut out in his first two collegiate games, he then went on a run of six points in his next four games, and ended the year as the Buckeyes’ leading scorer, even though he was again held off the score sheet in eight of his last ten games. There is risk in his profile, whether you believe that his second half slowdowns are due to physical immaturity or another reason, but I would be looking at the bright side instead, seeing a smart, responsible player with a good skill game who has a track record of season-over-season improvement that is four years running, and would be hopeful that even marginal muscle growth going forward would help him take on an energy role at the top level, not unlike an Alexander Kerfoot type.” - Ryan Wagman

Josh Lopina - Center - UMass (Amherst) (Hockey East

Lopina was actually ranked by us at McKeen’s last year (206th) after a strong second season in the USHL with Lincoln and a supporting performance at the World Junior A Challenge for the United States. A strong two-way forward, Lopina was one of the very best freshmen in College Hockey this year, winning a championship with UMass as one of the team’s most consistent offensive contributors. His 23 points were the 6th best freshmen total, while his +21 rating was the very best. There seems to be little doubt that he will hear his name called this time around in July.

“A teammate of Treloar’s on the Lincoln Stars during the 2019-20 season, we saw enough in Lopina last year to rate him as a solid candidate for the last round or two of the draft, slotting him 206 in our year-end draft rankings. As good as Treloar was as a freshman for an Ohio State program in a down year, Lopina was a critical player for the NCAA champion UMass Minutemen as a freshman. At 6-2”, and close to 200lbs, the Illinois native has a pro frame, and a game that suggests a very high pro floor, with a ceiling that may not fall too far short of Treloar’s either.

Lopina is not a pace setter, but he has always been able to keep up. He has a strong shot and is patient and poised with the puck on his stick, never forcing plays, but keeping his feet moving to try to create a better lane for a pass or shot. What has kept him from being drafted in the past is that he lacks any one selling tool that will cause scouts to immediately mark him as a draft candidate. Lopina needs to be watched for a while before one really starts to realize that he plays a smart, effective game and can be a strong contributor to a successful team, such as the three points (1 G, 2 A) he added to the Minutemen’s Frozen Four March.” - Ryan Wagman

Cameron Rowe - Goaltender - Wisconsin (Big 10)

Rowe, a former US National Development Team member, despite being rated highly previously. In his original draft year (2019), he was actually the 4th rated goalie in North America by NHL Central Scouting. Yet, he remains without an NHL affiliation. That may change this year after the big goaltender was the top freshmen netminder in all of College Hockey this season for Wisconsin. An All Rookie team member for the Big 10, Rowe finished the year with a sparkling .933 save percentage and established himself as the Badgers’ starter moving forward.

“Known primarily as Spencer Knight’s partner for the USNTDP during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, we could fairly say that Rowe helped his partner stand out during his time at the program, as his own uninspired, inconsistent play in net made Knight’s own marvelous consistency all the more remarkable. Continued inconsistency in his D+1 season with Des Moines of the USHL did not help Rowe’s case, even though he at least showed that he could retain his level of play while playing starter’s minutes.

Despite the ongoing concerns, he has pro size (6-3”, 212) and plus athleticism. On the downside, he was prone to allowing one goal against to snowball into many, as well as technical inconsistencies. Moving on to the NCAA with Wisconsin, Rowe was back to a tandem job, but this time, he was the better of the two performers, with a save percentage 14 percentage points higher than that of veteran partner, Robbie Beydoun. 10 of his 13 starts were “quality starts”, allowing two or fewer goals against. I have long felt that the raw pieces were there for Rowe to eventually blossom into a legit NHL prospect. Last season was his first truly big step in that direction.” - Ryan Wagman

Zachary Okabe - Right Wing - St. Cloud State (NCHC)

Not too often do you see a College Hockey player still eligible for the NHL Draft after their sophomore season, but that is the case with Okabe. The 5’9, offensive spark plug became a consistent offensive contributor for the Huskies this season, more than doubling the output of his freshman year (from 9 to 22 points). His 16 assists were top 10 in College Hockey among freshmen or sophomore players, again, ahead of many NHL drafted skaters.

“Born in Japan and raised in Australia, Okabe relocated with his family to Canada in his youth, where he blossomed on the ice, spending a few seasons in the famous Edge School prep program before embarking on a two-year run in the AJHL with Grand Prairie, which included an AJHL Rookie of the Year award. Okabe’s collegiate career got off to a slow start, with only nine points as a freshman, a total which he more than doubled as a sophomore this year (22 points in 30 points).

A small player (5-9”, 170), he, nonetheless, is at his best when he is able to find room in the slot – whether for a shot, or to redirect the puck to a linemate. He isn’t shy about challenging much bigger defenders, but he is more effective being sneaky. The fact that he was rarely used in defensive situations, such as the PK, for the Huskies, may be a concern to some, but the energy Okabe brings is undeniable. And the skills that he flashes do seem transferrable. He will never be a big player, but his type of grit is unteachable.” - Ryan Wagman

Iivari Rasanen - Defense - Quinnipiac University (ECAC)

We are seeing more and more Finnish players crossing the pond to play College Hockey and Rasanen is another example of that. He played last year for Muskegon of the USHL, posting moderate numbers, but has had a terrific freshman season for Quinnipiac this year, playing a key role on the blueline for the first place Bobcats. His +14 rating on the season was the 6th best among first year blueliners in College Hockey and was the very best on Quinnipiac. A former highly touted prospect (Rasanen served as the captain for Finland at the 2019 U18’s), he appears to have really turned a corner.

“This is a guy I’ve had in the corner of my eye for a little while now. Never bet against defenders who can skate, and Räsänen has added skill and pace to his game with the puck that drove unbelievable defense-first results for a talented Quinnipiac team this year. Goal differentials improved by over 80% with him on the ice, and he was on the ice for just 5 of Quinnipiac’s 40 even strength goals against with him in the lineup. With points on over 40% of the even strength goals his team scored, Räsänen showed promising offensive output, even if his point totals don’t jump out at you. He’s quick, surgical with his defensive pressure, and turns play around exceptionally well to push pucks up the ice quickly. For a freshman, I felt he stood out more than I expected from my viewings over the last two years, and similar to Cormier, I’m not sure I’d use a pick on him, but I feel like you could do much worse than reserving Räsänen’s rights for the next few years.” - Will Scouch

USHL

Daniel Laatsch - Defense - Sioux City Musketeers

Generally speaking, it is never a good sign for a U.S. based player’s draft stock when they are bumped from the USDP U18 team in favor of younger, better performing players. Had there been a U18’s, Laatsch would likely have not been a part of it. The lean, 6’5, defender just went back to work this season, playing with Sioux City, performing admirably for the Musketeers. A Wisconsin Badgers’ commit, Laatsch is surely to be back on the draft radar this time around.

“In most “normal” seasons, by the end of the USNTDP season, the bottom 1-3 performers from the U18 squad are bumped down to finish their seasons with the U17s, while the top 1-3 players from the U17 move up to play with the U18s. Last year, Laatsch was one of those unfortunate bottom U18 players, and may have missed out on an appearance in the 2020 U18 Championships had that event been held. Returning to the USHL to play with Sioux City, Laatsch was far more impressive.

On a team with New Jersey draft pick Ethan Edwards and 2021 draft prospect Shai Buium, Laatsch and his impressively lanky frame managed to stick out. Despite rarely appearing on the scoresheet with the USNDTP, he would still occasionally flash a level of talent rarely seen in players of his size. That talent came to the fore more often with the Musketeers. He played in all situations, including heavy usage on the PK, and while I see him continuing to fill that role at the next level – he is a Wisconsin commit – I doubt he spends any time on the power play, as his shot is not that menacing. Laatsch keeps a very tight gap and knows how to use his stick to close in on opponents, especially when they try to enter the Sioux City zone on his side. He is still raw, but his size and athleticism and occasional bits of fancy stickwork should make him some team’s idea of a good pick in the 4^th round and beyond.” - Ryan Wagman

Hank Kempf. Photo by Dan Hickling/Hickling Images

Hank Kempf - Defense - Muskegon Lumberjacks

In his second USHL season with Muskegon, the 6’2 defender emerged as one of the elite shut down defenders in the league. Wearing an “A’ for the Lumberjacks, Kampf also improved his offensive production from a year ago (when he went undrafted) and this should help to convince NHL scouts of his potential. Kampf remains a long-term project, but that is perfect considering his commitment to Cornell and likelihood of spending three or four years in College as most Ivy Leaguers do.

“Despite missing much of the first half of this season to injury, since returning Kempf has cemented himself as one of the top candidates among 18+ players in the USHL to be drafted this season. The Chicago-area native has a solid build, plays in all situations and has been successful at defending the best the USHL has to offer. He lacks the shot or the puck moving skills to play on the power play at the next level but has enough ability to skate with the puck and move it around the offensive zone to not be a liability if called upon either. I have been especially impressed with his play away from the puck, for his ability to shut down attacks and control play along the boards. Expected to move on to Cornell next year, he will have at least three seasons to mature in college and could be a blueline leader from day one. Kempf may be a “safe” prospect, but there is enough here to entice someone to call out his name in the draft’s second half.” - Ryan Wagman

Andrei Buyalsky - Center - Dubuque Fighting Saints

Through a loophole in the draft eligibility system, the 2000 born Kazakhstan native is actually still eligible for the NHL Draft this season. This is a good thing for the NHL scouts who want to secure the right of the 6’3, offensive center. With Dubuque, Buyalsky was an offensive leader nearly immediately upon joining the team about a third of the way into the season, an accolade that has earned him a scholarship with Vermont, allowing him to continue to play in the United States.

“I will admit to not realizing that Buyalsky was draft eligible when he showed up to play for Dubuque between Christmas and New Year’s. An Elliotte Friedman thought put me on the right track though, as despite being a 2000-born player, his European status at the beginning of this season allowed the Kazakhstani to retain draft eligibility. The rangy center is a great skater with enough puck skill to coerce even good defenders into stress-related errors. Tall and lean, Buyalsky was fairly consistently finding his way onto the scoresheet until a late-season injury kept him out of the playoffs.

Committed to attending Vermont next season, Buyalsky has enough dynamic elements to his game to expect big things from him in the near future. The question NHL scouts should be asking themselves is not whether he would be worth a pick in the last three rounds, but whether he could add 10-15 pounds to his lean frame without losing too much of his impressive North-South speed. He has already done well enough playing against men in Kazakhstan’s top pro league, and his immediate ability to step into a top six role with Dubuque mid-season certainly showed that he can perform on North American sized rinks. He is not without risk, but how many draft picks truly are?” - Ryan Wagman

Camden Thiesing - Right Wing - Green Bay Gamblers

A throwback, power forward from yester-years, Thiesing has certainly taken a long road to being NHL draft relevant. Starting in the NAHL before moving to the USHL, the 6’0 Ohio State commit was one of the most improved players in the USHL this year with Green Bay, finishing the season at near the point per game mark.

“They don’t make power forwards like they used to, but Tennessee native Thiesing is sure trying to do his part to keep the tradition alive. His 123 penalty minutes this year for Green Bay were third in the league, and of the two players who spent more time atoning for their sins, neither had more than half of Thiesing’s 44 points. The Ohio State commit was playing in the NAHL in his first year of draft eligibility, and underwhelmed in his second year, which was his first in the USHL.

This year, he was able to perform about as well as Boston draft pick Jake Schmaltz, and better than Vancouver pick Jackson Kunz on a decent Gamblers team. The offensive components to his game are all in the realm of average, but everything manages to play up – to be more effective in game situations – due to Thiesing’s ability to read the play and his willingness to throw himself at danger and essentially force the opposition’s hand. His upside is limited, but I know he will do whatever he possibly can to maximize the tools at his disposal.” - Ryan Wagman

Alex Gagne - Defense - Muskegon Lumberjacks

Speaking of the USHL’s most improved players, look no further than Alex Gagne of Muskegon. The 6’3, 200lbs defender tripled his offensive output from a year ago when he was not even on the draft radar as one of the younger players available (as an August birthday). If there is one thing that NHL scouts love it is significant progression from players in their draft +1 year (more so than their draft +2 years). The New Hampshire commit led the USHL in +/- (+35) this year among defenders and should be highly coveted in July.

“Think about everything I wrote about Hank Kempf above but make him bigger and more physical. Gagne, an August 2002 born player, was one of the younger members of the potential 2020 draft class. The New Hampshire native was in his first year in the USHL, and the leap from New Hampshire AAA hockey was understandably steep. His original Cedar Rapids team was prevented from playing from this year due to the Derecho which destroyed much of their arena last offseason, so Gagne was allowed to move to Muskegon in the dispersal draft.

The move, combined with his added familiarity to the league and additional physical and mental maturity, worked wonders for his game. Despite rarely playing on the power play for Muskegon, his 26 points – all at even strength – were second among Lumberjack blueliners behind only draft candidate Jacob Guevin. Gagne is a strong skater for his size, and handles speed attacks quite well, gapping tightly and using his long reach impressively. He also makes opponents pay a price in the corners. Headed back home next year to play for the University of New Hampshire, Gagne is another of the high floor, low ceiling re-draft candidates in the USHL this year.” - Ryan Wagman

Carter Mazur - Left Wing - Tri-City Storm

A former highly touted player coming out of the Detroit Little Caesars program, Mazur was one of the most disappointing draft eligible players in the USHL last year with Tri-City. However, the 6’0, University of Denver commit, had a remarkable bounce back, sophomore season with the Storm this year. Averaging nearly a point per game and wearing the “C’ for Tri-City, Mazur has put himself back on the NHL scouting map.

“The third overall pick of the 2018 USHL Futures Draft, Mazur needed some time to get the hang of the USHL. The Detroit native actually stayed with the Little Caesars’ program for one more year after the Storm selected him, but even then, his 13-point rookie season underwhelmed. With nearly one point per game for a solid Storm team this year, his early stumbles have been put to bed. Slowly filling in his skinny 6-0” frame, Mazur can play the occasional power-style game, driving hard to the net, but he really excels when he cuts out some East-West stylings. He is a fine skater with plus edgework. He moves the puck well, but in his drive to push play, he can be a little too loose with the disc.

He is reliable in his own end as well and spent a considerable chunk of his time on the PK for Tri-City. Wearing the ‘C’ for Western Conference regular season champions Tri-City, Mazur was neck and neck with fellow 2021 draft candidates Hunter Strand and Matthew Knies for the team scoring lead (he finished second in the end). While he will have to curb some of his E-W style at the next level, there are enough positive elements to Mazur’s game to be reasonably optimistic about his potential for a pro career in the future.” - Ryan Wagman

Cameron Berg. Photo by Dan Hickling/Hickling Images

Cameron Berg - Center - Muskegon Lumberjacks

Berg was actually fairly highly ranked by us at McKeen’s (156th) last year after a strong second half finish following a trade to Muskegon that saw him up near the point per game mark. It appears Berg did not let his draft disappointment dissuade him, as he returned to Muskegon this year, picking up right where he left off. Berg’s 58 points on the season placed him 7th in league scoring and the Nebraska/Omaha commit has to be considered a strong candidate to get drafted this time around.

“Another re-draft candidate from Muskegon, Berg was a player we had actually earmarked as a draft candidate last year, and indeed, he was our top ranked player from the USHL (156^th overall) not to be drafted. He may have been overlooked last year as his first quarter of the season with Omaha was pretty empty and he only turned things around in the abbreviated season’s second half. The Omaha native, who is committed to Nebraska-Omaha next season, took his second half gains from last year, and built off them even more this season, in a return engagement with the Lumberjacks.

He has quick feet, at least in short bursts and a killer’s instinct for his big one-timer. In addition to the big shot – his carrying tool – he has some skill with the puck and isn’t afraid to muck it up with opponents. I also believe that he could be a PK contributor at the next level as well, in addition to his obvious power play tools. But really, the team that finally pulls the trigger on Berg will be doing it for Berg’s own trigger – the shot. His 27 goals this year were good enough for 7^th in the league, and 3^rd among all players outside of the Chicago Steel.” - Ryan Wagman

Josh Doan - Right Wing - Chicago Steel

It seems like every year the Steel have a top candidate for this list with the likes of Nick Abruzzese and Gunnarwolfe Fontaine in recent drafts. This year, it is Josh Doan, the son of former NHL star Shane Doan. The 6’2 winger and Arizona State commit, increased his goal production by over 500% (jumping from 5 to 31) and finished the USHL season as the league’s 3rd leading scorer. Given his pedigree, size, and improving skill set, Doan has a chance to be the first re-entry candidate off the draft board this July.

“Josh, son of Arizona Coyotes’ legend Shane Doan, gained some notoriety last year, his first draft eligible season, mostly due to his family name. This year, he added the family game to the family name and has emerged as a player with legitimate NHL aspirations in his own right, a hope he displayed with a four-goal game to a house full of NHL scouts only a few weeks ago, as many non-US scouts were in town as a stop-over on their collective way down to Texas for the U18s. Among other things, Doan has added another step or two to his stride, obviating any previous concerns with his skating ability.

He has a finisher’s mentality but is not single-minded and is just as likely to look for a teammate, as evidenced by his final regular season line of 31 goals and 39 assists. Sure, playing much of the season alongside Montreal prospect Sean Farrell helped, but I can confirm that Farrell and Doan both elevated the play of the other. Doan will return to his native Arizona next season to play for ASU, but I suspect he could be ready to turn pro within two or three years, and his game could play up or down a pro lineup at his peak.” - Ryan Wagman

NAHL

Luke Pavicich - Goaltender - Kenai River Brown Bears

Quietly, the NAHL has become a bit of a goalie factory for NHL scouts, as the league has seen multiple goaltenders drafted in recent years. This includes some in their second or third year of eligibility. Of course, the most famous of those would be Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebucyk, who was selected in 2012 in his second year of eligibility. Pavicich, a UMass commit, was one of the NAHL’s best goalies this season with Kenai River and has the size at 6’3 to entice NHL scouts. If Filip Lindberg turns pro, Pavicich would even have a chance to be the starter for the Minutemen next season.

“You often don’t find undrafted goaltenders make their way to the NHL after spending their D+1 in the NAHL. That being said, the position is voodoo and there are random success stories from all over the world. The Kenai River goaltender boasted a .920 sv% across 31 contests, good for 7th in the league for goalies with 20+ starts (all but one of the goalies ahead are older than he is). There’s no position in hockey that requires as much post-draft development as goaltending, that’s why there are stories of highly touted goalie prospects not able to progress past the ECHL, while others can look mediocre for 5-6 years before randomly piecing it all together at 24 years old. Each NHL team has a different approach to developing goaltenders, and while it’s unlikely we’ll hear Pavicich’s name called in June, it’s not out of the question that one or two teams can watch his tape and see his reaction time, positioning and rebound control and believe they can make something out of it with enough development time.” - Sam McGilligan

USHL: 2020-21 Playoff Preview – Expect Entertaining Hockey with Chicago a Clear Favourite

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 30 Apr 2021 15:27:15 +0000

If there is an exception to the across-the-board negative impact of COVID-19 on the world of hockey, it may rest in the USHL. As north of the border, the three leagues of the CHL were in disarray – at best – the USHL, played a fairly “normal” year.

Sure, the league proceeded without the participation of the Madison Capitals (regional COVID restrictions) or the Cedar Rapids Rough Riders (a Derecho huffed and puffed and blew the arena down), but the rest of the league played (an approximately) 54 game schedule with rather few disruptions.

Not only that, but in terms of quality, the league was better than ever, as a number of players who had expected to suit up for Canadian teams – both CHL and Jr. A – were given an opportunity to play for various USHL teams as their regular leagues were delayed indefinitely, or outright cancelled. Those bonus players included some that were drafted already, including Cross Hanas, Bear Hughes, and Danil Gushchin*. Other drafted players came in from the Ivy League schools, who did not play a hockey schedule this year. In addition to the likes of Henry Thrun, Jack Malone, and Austin Wong coming to the USHL after some time in college, others like Sean Farrell and Alex Laferriere, who had intended to start collegiate life this year, were forced to stay back for one more year in the Midwest.

*Gushchin, who had played the previous two seasons with Muskegon, was expected to play in Ontario with Niagara for the 2020-21 season, but with the OHL in permanent statis, he was loaned back to the Lumberjacks, where he put up his best season yet.

And then there were the draft-eligible ringers who unexpectedly joined the league and played so well that they have legitimate first round consideration at the end of it. I am thinking, of course, of Cole Sillinger, who joined Sioux Falls, before it was known when, or if, the WHL would get going, and Ayrton Martino and Jack Bar, who had played in Ontario last year and had been planning on playing in the BCHL this year before Canadian restrictions pushed them to the USHL, with Omaha and Chicago, respectively.

Of course, there were many other unexpected players in the league this year, with those mentioned only scratching the surface of the most famous names.

So, before we preview the postseason, which begins this Friday (Apr. 30), let’s pour one out for the six teams that didn’t make, and give a word to the top 1-3 draft eligible players from those squads.

Team USA

One point behind Dubuque for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference – although far further back via points percentage (.510-.481), the USNTDP team that would have played in the USHL playoffs had they made it would have been the U17 team. The best of that group – Rutger McGroarty, Isaac Howard, Ryan Chesley, Lane Hutson, Charlie Stramel and others – are playing with the U18 team in Texas at the WU18 tournament. No draft eligibles but remember those names for next season.

Youngstown Phantoms

By points percentage, easily the weakest team in the league. The aforementioned Jack Malone, a Vancouver draft pick, was far and away the top performer on the team, which is to be expected from a player with a year at Cornell under his belt. Among first year draft eligibles, Japanese import Yusako Ando was the most notable, although his second year in the league was worse than his first. He can create for others, but he doesn’t skate well enough to make up for his slight 5-7” frame. The only other draft eligible who ever made a positive impression on me from this roster was blueliner Austen May. The Providence commit is on the small side, but he is really fleet of foot and shows decent attention to detail off the puck.

Des Moines Buccaneers

Despite the presence of three drafted players – Alex Laferriere (LA), Noah Ellis (Vgk), and Lucas Mercuri (Car), the Buccaneers struggled this year, particularly in terms of putting the puck in the net. The drafted guys were all solid, but too few of the rest of the roster could match their output. Perhaps things would have been different if Paul Davey hadn’t of left mid-season for a stint back home in Connecticut. Davey and Scout Truman were the two most notable first time draft eligible on the roster, but neither really put their stamp on the season. If there are to be any Buccaneers drafted this year, they will be among the redraft candidates. To that end, file away the names of Matt Choupani and Remington Koepple. Choupani is a forward who lacks much in the way of physical tools but can play the puck well. Koepple is a goalie who had decent numbers in his first year in the league, although he has only average size and athleticism and he chocked in the BioSteel game, hurting his standing for some.

Lincoln Stars

The Stars went heavy on the ringers partway through the season. Cross Hanas was already mentioned, but he was just one of four players brought in from the WHL Portland Winterhawks, joining Clay Hanas (no relation), Jack O’Brien, and James Stefan, as well as Charles-Alexis Legault from West Kelowna in the BCHL and Michael Mastrodomenico from AAA hockey in Quebec. Simply put, the shuffled team never gelled, and the newcomers couldn’t get into the swing of the USHL.

O’Brien was the biggest disappointment. There was some expectation that he could be a high round pick this year, but one goal and six assists in 23 games ended that sentiment. Blueliner Legault didn’t hurt his stock too much, as he still has great size and skates well and shoots from his right side. Stefan, son of former first overall pick Patrik Stefan, had enough moments to maybe convince some team to call his name in the late rounds. A kind word also to big bruising winger Gleb Veremeyev. Veremeyev isn’t an offensive threat, but one of the top PIM players in the league is a threat, nonetheless. The USHL is not a very physical league, and when a player has that size and plays with that snarl, he sometimes gets drafted, such as we saw with Nick Capone last year and Martin Pospisil in 2018.

Waterloo Black Hawks

Generally contenders, the Black Hawks find themselves out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014-15, and only the second time in 14 seasons for which there were playoffs. Fielding one of the smaller and least experienced lineups in the league, this just wasn’t their year. Their one drafted player, Toronto’s Wyatt Schingoethe, regressed heavily from his strong draft year. The team cycled through goalies, with three seeing significant minutes. Remember the name of Emmett Croteau, the best performing of their netminders, as he won’t be draft eligible until 2022.

Among players eligible this year, the most impressive were second time eligible defenseman Cooper Wylie, a USHL rookie, who can play the puck and skate well enough to make his ornery game effective, if not spectacular. He could be drafted. On the other hand, David Gucciardi, acquired in an early season trade from Youngstown, will be drafted. His game is raw, and his mistakes are often critical, but he has tools, and his instincts are good enough to think he can be a good one if he relies on his instincts all the time.

Sioux Falls Stampede

The Western Conference bottom feeders are a mystery. In the last USHL playoffs, the Stampede took home the title. In addition to their usual solid team, this year they brought in the highest profile ringer in Cole Sillinger, who didn’t disappoint, with a team leading 46 points despite only playing in 31 games. He is a sniper with an NHL style game who will be back in the WHL next year. The USHL rarely sees a player of his caliber, whether talking about skill or about reading the game, yet he couldn’t drag the Stampede upwards on his own. I would be surprised if he isn’t the first player from this year’s USH: crop to play in the NHL.

Defender Brent Johnson was one of the better draft eligible defenders in the league as well. A power play specialist with good wheels and an ornery side, his season ended right before the BioSteel All American Game due to a shoulder injury, but could hear his name called in the 50-80 range of the draft if his medicals hold up.

Although not as high profile, I also have time for second time eligible, defenseman Nate Schweitzer, who can do a lot well, but nothing spectacularly, and winger Mike Citara, who can skate and shoot. I don’t expect either to be drafted, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either was.

The Playoffs

The format this year is simple. The top four teams from each conference made it in. All series are best-of-threes. Top seed plays the fourth seed, and second seed plays the third seed. All games are hosted by the higher seed. One series per weekend until one team lifts the Clark Cup. Let’s go!

Western Conference

Jack Peart. Photo Dan Hickling, Hickling Images

#1 Tri-City Storm vs #4 Fargo Force

The Western Conference was incredibly tight at the top with the playoff picture not being settled until the final weekend of the regular season. The points percentage difference between Tri-City and Fargo (32 percentage points) was less than between Fargo and fifth place Des Moines (34 percentage points).

Fargo was the third best defensive team in the league, although Tri-City was the best at keeping the puck out of its net. Neither team is known for filling their opponents’ nets either, but both had generally done enough to walk away with points more often than not. In fact, they are quite evenly matched. The difference in these three games (outside of home ice advantage) is likely to rest in special teams. Fargo was mediocre on both the power play and the penalty kill, while the Storm were strong with the man advantage and almost impregnable on the penalty kill, leading the league with a breathtaking 88.3% kill rate. To Fargo’s credit, they have played far more of their season at 5-on-5 than Tri-City. And they will have to do that again this weekend to keep their season alive.

Beyond the expected close games, another reason to watch this series is the head-to-head matchup between two very interesting and talented draft eligibles. On Fargo, that would be Tristan Broz, a two-way center with a good motor and the vision to be a power play weapon. The Minnesota commit ran away with the scoring lead on his team. His numbers would be even more impressive if he had more talented teammates to play with. On Tri-City, the man of the hour is Matthew Knies. Knies started his season painfully slow, but ended it on fire, with 20 points in his final 11 games. Knies has heavier feet, but a very mature build and at his best, can take over the game. He will join Broz with the Golden Gophers next year.

Knies and Broz are not the only intriguing draft eligible players in this series. In fact, Fargo blueliner Jack Peart has a very good chance to be the highest drafted player in this series. The St. Cloud State commit split his season between Fargo and Grand Rapids High School (Mn). He is a good skater with a very strong first few steps, who plays with preternatural poise. He controls the puck like a much older player and plays a strong 200-foot game. Had Peart spent the entire season in Fargo, the final standings may have looked very different. For Fargo, also keep an eye on Aaron Huglen, a Buffalo draft pick who returned from over a full year on the sidelines after around a third of this season was done and has played a skilled game ever since.

On Tri-City, Knies is joined by a pair of intriguing draft eligible players in Hunter Strand and Carter Mazur, the latter of whom is a second time eligible player. Strand is a USNTDP alum, whose late birthday prevented him from being drafted last year. The Alaska native is a great skater and plays a patient game with the puck. Mazur has more of an East-West style game, helped along by plus edges. He can play the pest role as well and retains utility off the puck. Strand and Mazur both outscored Knies this year, but Knies already had a big reputation through his big pre-draft year and his run to end the year keeps him top of mind.

Prediction: Fargo in three. A mild upset to be sure. The return of Peart helps Fargo just as much as the loss of top blueliner Guillaume Richard hurts Tri-City. Richard is currently representing Team Canada at the WU18s in Texas. Neither team has stellar goaltending, but Fargo’s Brennan Boynton should be able to roughly match Tri-City’s Todd Scott.

#2 Omaha Lancers vs #3 Sioux City Musketeers

Both Omaha and Sioux City put up 63 points in 53 games, but their paths to getting there could scarcely have been more different. Consider that Omaha’s goal differential was a mediocre +13, while Sioux City outscored their opponents on aggregate by 35 goals, with the league’s best – by far – defense.

The two teams are both led by high end goaltending, each starting one of the three drafted netminders in the league. For Sioux City, that man is the Swiss Akira Schmid, a New Jersey prospect, while Montreal draftee Jakob Dobes, from Czechia, mans the pipes for Omaha. Dobes was a true workhorse for the Lancers, playing in 47 of the team’s 53 games, while Schmid played roughly two-third of the time for Sioux City, as his back up was more reliable.

Schmid will need to be at his best in this series, however, as Omaha has one of the biggest offensive weapons in the league at their disposal in Ayrton Martino. Martino joined the club shortly after the calendar flipped into 2021 and took the league by storm, with the fifth best points-per-game ratio in the USHL (1.47). A great skater with a fantastic shot, Martino did not let his slight frame prevent him from dominating, and his playmaking game is just as strong as his finishing ability. If Sioux City can shut Martino down, the Lancers don’t have too many other weapons at their disposal as their secondary scoring is largely in the hands of USHL veterans like Ryan Lautenbach, Nolan Renwick and Zach Dubinsky. The Omaha roster is one of the oldest in the league.

Sioux City, on the other hand, has a few more weapons at its disposal. Detroit draft pick Chase Bradley and New Jersey pick Ethan Edwards were both in the team’s top four in scoring, while Buffalo pick Matteo Costantini showed well after joining the league mid-season. Although the Musketeers don’t have a draft eligible player the likes of Martino, don’t sleep on defenseman Shai Buium. A USHL rookie out of the Shattuck-St. Mary’s program, he combines quick hands with smooth, if not quick, feet. He plays a strong two-way game and if he were a better skater (he isn’t bad, but he isn’t great), we would be hearing more people call for him as a first round type of talent. As is, he has enough raw skill to dream on a big, late-blooming future. I am also keeping an eye on redraft candidates defenseman Daniel Laatsch and center Justin Hryckowian. Laatsch is a USNTDP alum who has great size and some burgeoning skill, but is still raw, while Hryckowian has a fun skill game, but an injury-filled history and a sub-optimal build.

Prediction: Sioux City’s depth overcomes Martino’s solo skill in three games.

Western Conference Final Prediction: Sioux City over Fargo in three games. Sioux City is just too difficult to score against and has enough offensive weapons to get the job done.

Eastern Conference

Matthew Coronato. Photo by Dan Hickling, Hickling Images

#1 Chicago Steel vs #4 Dubuque Fighting Saints

By all accounts, this should be a washout. Chicago is, by great lengths, the top team in the USHL. They enter the postseason on an eight-game undefeated streak, and won 38 of 54 games this year, often by wide margins. Their goaltending has been shoddy at times, but far more often than not, they were able to outscore their troubles and their total of 265 goals scored was 24 more than the runners-up. Dubuque, on the other hand, won only 24 of 51 games, securing the final playoff spot in the east thanks to a win in their final game coupled with a loss from the U17 USNTDP squad.

If Dubuque is to have a hope in this series, look to their defensive players. Goalie Lukas Parik, a Los Angeles draft pick, struggled since joining the team, in late-January from the Czech second division, but shut out Green Bay in his final game, reminding us of what he is capable. On the blueline, fellow LA pick Braden Doyle teams up with Anaheim draft pick Henry Thrun to give the Fighting Saints a pair of weapons. Up front, Dubuque has a balanced attack, but the man to watch is Robert Cronin. While too old to be drafted this year Cronin is a late bloomer with speed and skill who will be a good follow next year once he joins the University of New Hampshire. The boy to watch, on the other hand, is Matthew Savoie. The 17-year-old is a 2022 draft eligible, who should have been playing in the WHL, but the uncertainty in that league led him to Dubuque, where he immediately played a central, and at time dominating, role. He’s going to be really fun to watch next year.

Looking at draft eligibles for this summer, keep your eyes on Connor Kurth and Andrei Buyalsky. Buylasky is actually the same age (born three days later) as Cronin, but as he is considered a foreign player (this is his first season in North America), the Kazakhstani forward is draft eligible while the American Cronin is not. Buyalsky is an impressive skater with impressive finishing ability. Kurth, on the other hand, has no particular big attributes to his game, but he finds a way to put up good numbers. He has a very stocky build but moves well enough regardless.

Moving on to Chicago, almost every skater on the roster is worthy of mention. Start with Montreal draft pick Sean Farrell, a USNTDP alum who would have been with Harvard this season had the Crimson actually played. Instead, he put up a breathtaking 101-point season for the Steel. His playmaking ability is simply unfair to most opponents on most nights. Then there is Matthew Coronato, a likely first round pick, who scored 48 goals in 51 games. Sure, it helps to have Farrell playing on your team, but the two actually rarely played together at even strength. Coronato is an offensive dynamo, who is content to cycle on his own for multiple full loops of the offensive end before he sees a seam to exploit.

Then there is Jack Bar, a late add to the roster from the BCHL. After a brief period acclimating to the league, he began to dominate. The defenseman likes to get deep into the offensive zone but is also a physical and committed defender. He has some first round upside. Of course, I also have to mention Mackie Samoskevich, who at one time was seen as a better draft prospect than Coronato. Samoskevich struggled somewhat after a midseason injury but is another gifted playmaker and a fantastic skater to boot.

I don’t want to get into the weeds too much, but I also expect Josh Doan (son of Shane), Ryan Ufko, and Jackson Blake to be drafted this summer, and Jack Harvey being drafted wouldn’t surprise me either. Anaheim draft pick Ian Moore has been impressive in his first season in the USHL, and 2023(!!) eligible forward Adam Fantilli is a burgeoning superstar. As good as everyone else already mentioned on this roster is, Fantilli’s upside is the highest. I am talking top three in the draft upside.

Prediction: Chicago in two, barring a complete breakdown in net. Chicago in three if the goalies stumble.

#2 Muskegon Lumberjacks vs #3 Green Bay Gamblers

A testament to how tight the West is, the Muskegon-Green Bay series is the second most lopsided duel after Chicago-Dubuque, with .040 percentage points separating the Lumberjacks and the Gamblers. Muskegon plays an up-tempo, high-event game with red lights going off at both ends. Green Bay is best when they keep goals to a minimum, and actually ended the season with the fewest goals allowed in the conference.

Green Bay’s chances are led by a pair of Boston Bruins’ draft picks in defender Mason Lohrei and center Jake Schmaltz. The latter is a two-way forward, who after three seasons in the USHL, has figured out how to be a factor offensively. He does a lot of little things well but lacks any dynamic elements. Lohrei was a surprise second rounder last season but has grown his game even more this year. He is big, skates very well, has a big point shot and plays a tough game at all ends. The Gamblers will go as far as he can take them. Vancouver draft pick Jackson Kunz and Vegas pick Jackson Hallum are also on the roster, and while both have shown the ability to provide secondary offense, neither can make things happen on their own. 2022 eligible Ryan Greene is an interesting player, but if there is a wild card in Green Bay, it is Camden Thiesing. The Tennessee native combines skill with grit, finishing third in the league in PIMs. He will work to make things happen on his own, and when he stays out of the penalty box, he is dangerous.

Led by San Jose draft pick Danil Gushchin, Muskegon is incredibly entertaining. Gushchin is a dynamo, who is not the most consistent player, but when he is involved and engaged, is one of the top handful of forwards in the league. He is joined by a deep roster of talented players, a few of whom should be drafted this summer, many of those in their second year of eligibility. The best of that secondary bunch is center Cameron Berg. Berg finished last year hot after a slow start and didn’t miss a beat coming into this year. He has a high-end wrist shot and knows how to create space for himself to rip one off. Winger Quinn Hutson is another second-year eligible forward who made waves this year. The type of player to get to the right spot at the right time, he knows how to finish what his linemates create. On the blueline, there are a trio to watch. The offensive blueline is Jacob Guevin, a power play specialist, whose production overshadows his average tools. Alex Gagne and Hank Kempf are bigger, more physical blueliners who make life difficult for attacking forwards. I could see all three drafted this summer.

Prediction: Muskegon in three games.

Eastern Conference Final prediction: Chicago in three games over Muskegon. This would be an immensely entertaining series.

Clark Cup Final Prediction: Chicago over Sioux City in three games. It’s really hard to bet against the Steel this year.