Andrew Mangiapane – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:46:49 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - JUNE 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) passes the puck in the second periodduring game three of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers on June 9, 2025 at Amerant Bank Arena, FL. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

It’s hard to be upset about reaching the Stanley Cup Final two years in a row, but coming up short losing to the Florida Panthers for the second straight season is a good reason to be grumpy. The Oilers were able to get over a slow start out of the gates and finished in third place in the Pacific Division with 101 points, trailing division winner Vegas and second place Los Angeles. Edmonton was again one of the top five-on-five teams and finished fourth in CorsiFor percentage (54.1) and third in expected goals for percentage (54.4). Surprisingly, even with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl they had the league’s 11th best offence with 259 goals and their power play ranked 12th in the league. A more balanced Oilers team is a good thing and a reason why they were able to advance to the Final again but allowed the 14th most goals. Getting hot at the end of the season and in the playoffs can work wonders, especially when two of the best players in the world are on the roster.

What’s Changed?

The Oilers parted ways with mercurial forward Evander Kane, trading him to Vancouver for a fourth-round pick. They also sent Viktor Arvidsson to Boston for a 2027 fifth-round pick but were able to boost their prospect profile by adding Hobey Baker Award winner Isaac Howard from Tampa Bay for prospect Sam O’Reilly. Howard had 26 goals and 26 assists at Michigan State last season in 37 games. They added free agent forward Andrew Mangiapane from Washington on a two-year, $7.2 million deal and center Curtis Lazar on a one-year deal. Edmonton also took care of guys in-house, too, with a four-year, $42 million extension for defenceman Evan Bouchard and an eight-year, $30.8 million extension for Trent Frederic. With Kane gone and the Oilers pressed up against the cap, it offers Howard and fellow prospect Matthew Savoie the chance to make a big impression.

What Would Success Look Like?

Winning the Stanley Cup is the goal. Coming so close two years in a row and falling short of making the Cup Final would be a massive letdown, particularly since they’re deep into the prime years of both McDavid and Draisaitl. That they’ve been able to rally hard in the second halves of the past two seasons and carried that momentum into the playoffs to keep rolling is a credit to them. A healthy Zach Hyman makes a big difference in the lineup, too, and his return will make them even more dangerous. Getting goalie Stuart Skinner back on point and playing like he did two years ago would go a long way, but allowing their top players to thrive and control the game works wonders when they’re the best in the world. Getting to the Stanley Cup Final is extremely difficult, especially in the Western Conference, but they’ve outdueled everyone on the way to the Final the last two years and worn out the Stars to the point they changed coaches. Make no mistake, it’s Cup or Bust in Edmonton.

What Could Go Wrong?

The Oilers sacrificed some of their veterans up front to open the door for younger players like Howard and Savoie to jump into the fire. It’s good to have McDavid, Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins there to guide them up the middle, yes, but the NHL is a difficult league and the margins to win in the West are thin. That said, those guys can all play and do well, but it won’t make a ton of difference if Skinner can’t play consistently well in goal. Calvin Pickard showed he could fill in a pinch and play well enough, but if Skinner struggles, the Oilers will not be able to win the Stanley Cup and they’ll be on the prowl for a new No. 1 goalie immediately, especially in-season if it’s that apparent.

Top Breakout Candidate

The bar is set high for Isaac Howard. He was a monster at Michigan State and was an easy choice for the Hobey Baker Award. He was Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2022, 31st overall, and having him head to the Oilers where he’ll get the prime opportunity to use his impressive offensive skills with their premier players means all eyes will be on him to have a big year as a rookie. If he jumps right into the NHL with no AHL games played, that’ll only up the hype on him.

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	35	85	120	1.56

Winning a Stanley Cup is the only thing left on McDavid’s checklist. He’s done just about everything else you could ask for, adding a Gold Medal at the Four Nations tournament to his trophy case this year where he scored the Golden Goal for Team Canada. Hockey’s greatest prize, however, has always been just out of his reach. He has come close the last two seasons, running into a brick wall in Florida. Playing through an injury the first year and not being able to generate any offence once the series got to crunch time. It takes more than one player to win a cup and the Oilers current run is proof of that, because if their star player is just a fraction off, the rest of the team hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. McDavid still has plenty of kicks at the can left, only 28 years old and looking swift as ever even after an early season ankle injury. He has more competition now as the league’s best player with other elite talents emerging around the league, but he still sets the standard for them. There aren’t a lot of players who can create quick-strike offence as good as him. His lethal combination of speed and finesse is always going to put him in that upper echelon because it’s a gift that most players don’t have. It doesn’t take much for him to gain the zone and find a way to the net and he has gotten better at playing the half-rink game on the cycle, breaking defences down from the perimeter and threading the needle with his passing. This past season was somewhat of a down year for him, if you can call 100 points in 67 games bad, but he raised his game again in the playoffs. Getting over that final hurdle is all that is left for McDavid.

Leon Draisaitl

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	54	60	114	1.44

Last year felt like the first time Draisaitl wasn’t viewed as just a McDavid sidepiece, which seems silly because he’s won a Hart Trophy before. While he wasn’t completely separated from McDavid, Draisaitl did spend most of last season centering his own line and it featured a revolving door of players as the Oilers were trying to figure out who works best there. Draisaitl still had an unbelievable season, leading the league in goals and improving his all-around game. Driving play away from McDavid has been the issue with Draisaitl throughout his career, as the slower pace that he plays at gets exposed when the game opens up and he usually needs to outscore his problems. Last season he turned the corner here, Edmonton winning the scoring chance battle heavily while he was on the ice and the main reason why he was a runner up for the Hart Trophy. He is a very difficult player to defend. His slow, clunky skating stride is deceptive because he can play the game with a lot of pace despite that. He’s one of the best playmakers in the league, doing some of it through brute strength while being double covered and being gifted with incredible hands to put passes on the tape without needing to slow or settle the play down. His patented move, however, is scoring off the one-timer from the goal-line. Something that nobody in the league does right now with same level of frequency and consistency as him. Draisaitl has more than proved himself in his own right, it’s all about winning the big one now.

Zach Hyman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	30	28	58	0.76

Expecting Hyman to repeat his 54-goal season was unreasonable, as that was one of the most unprecedented career years from a player in recent memory. A big body with a nose for the net, Hyman’s going to get a lot of chances from around the crease with McDavid setting him up. He has mastered the art of “catching” pucks with his body at the side of the net, making himself a bigger target and settling the puck down to make a move at the net instead of trying to jam the puck in. He’s a rare case of a player of his type signing a high dollar UFA contract at 30 years old and having back-to-back career seasons. His skillset matched what the Oilers needed at the time and he’s getting the elite linemates, but it was still a shock to see him score at the rate he did. The crash to earth finally came last season, although 27 goals is about what you would expect from a 32-year-old who gets most of his looks from around the net. It’s hard to say if this is the new normal for him because his track record with the Oilers was so extreme up to that point and he still created a high rate of chances but experienced a shooting percentage dip that happens to all players. Not having him available for the final was devastating to the Oilers, as his ability to get to the net seamlessly is something that’s easy to take for granted until it’s not there anymore.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	19	36	55	0.71

The utility player of the Oilers roster, “RNH” can be found either on McDavid’s wing or centering the Oilers third line. It’s normal for Edmonton to fall back on putting him with McDavid because of the team’s wing depth and RNH knows the nuances of how to read off the team’s star. He’s not going to get a lot of puck touches, so he needs to do what he can to get open or create space for McDavid when he’s playing that role. On the 3C, he is more of a pure checker, playing a dump-and-chase game or letting some of the speedier linemates do that work. His five-on-five production fluctuates heavily because of this. He’s a smart player and always in the right position, but he’s rarely one of the last two guys to touch the puck on a scoring chance. The power play is a different story, as that’s where he makes his money. He’s all over the zone to help connect the dots between McDavid and Draisaitl, making Edmonton’s power play one of the most lethal units in the league the past few years. His production there has taken a dip from the unsustainable 45 points he put up in 2023, but he’s still an integral part of what makes them click on the power play. A support player who can have the odd game where he takes over is where his niche is right now.

Andrew Mangiapane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	18	22	40	0.50

While not reaching the heights he once did in Calgary, Mangiapane is a great player to have in the middle of your roster. He brings a lot of energy on the forecheck and has the skill to be a contributing piece on a scoring line. Good combination of speed, hands and a willingness to go to the net, he is one of the players penciled in as a potential linemate for McDavid. This role would be new for him, as he didn’t get to play with Gaudreau much in Calgary and he spent most of last season on Washington’s checking lines with Nic Dowd and Lars Eller. The fit with McDavid is intriguing, as Mangiapane has the speed to keep up with him and brings something different to the table than a Zach Hyman or a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a smaller, water bug type of player. The concern with him is that he’s scored more than 20 goals only once and it was during a season where he had an unsustainably high shooting percentage with most of his chances coming around the net. He should get some similar opportunities if he is McDavid’s linemate, but it’s something Mangiapane has yet to repeat. If he doesn’t stick there, the baseline to his game is solid enough that he should be one of the Oilers best second or third liners. He’s an excellent defensive player and someone who offers a counter-attack element with the speed that he plays with. There’s a wide range of outcomes for the Oilers newest winger, as he’s a great low-risk, high-reward addition.

Kasperi Kapanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	9	14	23	0.31

Kapanen looked like a player who could be out of the league within a year at the start of last season. He found himself on waivers after only 10 games and the Oilers took a flier on the speedy winger. While he didn’t set the world on fire, he was a regular fixture in their lineup and scored one of the biggest goals of his career to clinch a second round series win over Vegas. The strengths and flaws in Kapanen’s game are obvious. He has blazing speed but is prone to getting tunnel vision when he gets the puck and not use his linemates well. His speed makes him an asset on the penalty kill but doesn’t have great awareness when defending in his own zone, so you get extreme results on both ends. As evidenced by Kapanen having nights where he was one of the Oilers best wingers and others where he was bad enough to be a healthy scratch the following game. Kapanen will have some games where he’s an impact player, as we saw in the playoffs and that was enough for the Oilers to keep him around for another year. While he had his moments, his last season with more than 10 goals was three years ago, so he does need to show more production if he wants to stay in the NHL.

Adam Henrique

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	14	17	31	0.39

It’s hard to say if Henrique is entering the twilight of his career or adjusting to a lower line role for the first time in his career. Even when he was having his best seasons with the Ducks, he never put up dazzling point totals and most of his strengths come away from the puck rather than someone who leads the charge. Moving to Edmonton was his first real stint as a complementary piece, as he was a top six player with the Ducks and immediately put on the third line with the Oilers. It makes things easier for Henrique in terms of matchups, but he also had new types of linemates to adjust to with more straight-line players like Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark. It’s tougher to play the same level of complementary hockey when your linemates aren’t creating as many chances as they did when you were in the top six. Henrique can still make the most out of what he has to work with though. He is low key one of the better finishers in the league, shooting at over 15 percent for most of his career, is a workhorse on the penalty kill and his strengths mostly revolve around his hockey sense rather than his raw skill. He also brings some versatility with the ability to play both center and wing, which opens the door for him to play in the top six again if the Oilers feel it’s necessary. The third line center spot is likely his home for most of the season, though.

Vasily Podkolzin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	26	38	0.46

Having only 20 points while attached at the hip to Leon Draisaitl might make you write off Podkolzin, but there is more to the story with him. As one of Edmonton’s better forwards at generating zone exits, he played a small part in stabilizing Draisaitl’s defensive game. It’s a huge relief to Draisaitl, because he didn’t have to cover as much ground in his own zone and having someone else who could win battels along the wall and make the quick plays out of the zone is a huge boost. His big upper body makes him a solid puck protector, and he skates well for a larger forward. Rounding out some of the details in his offensive game is the next step for him. He found a niche as Draisaitl’s running mate but needs to start capitalizing on the chances that were setup for him. It’s something that will make him a permanent fixture in the top six instead of a placeholder. It’s uncertain if he has the skill to be a dynamic offensive player, as he was known more for his two-way game as a prospect and has shown an up-and-down trajectory as far as his point-production goes. Right now, we know he’s an NHLer, it’s just a matter of taking things to the next level.

Trent Frederic

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	20	35	0.43

Despite scoring only one goal in 22 playoff games, dealing with injuries and having an overall down season, the Oilers liked Frederic enough to extend him for eight years, signing the contract immediately after the season ended. At his peak, Frederic is a good fit on the Oilers, a third liner who can play both positions, forecheck and get you 35-40 points isn’t anything to scoff at. There’s more of a need for a player like him with Adam Henrique getting older too. His down season was also influenced more by poor finishing from linemates than anything else, as he played mostly with checking line players in Boston and his skillset was a little redundant alongside net front guys Justin Brazeau and Mark Kastelic. The Oilers saw a lot of what he brings to the table outside of scoring in the playoffs, being a steady defensive presence who can anchor a third line and help you get out of the defensive zone. His offensive game was just very limited, creating most of his chances off of rebounds and deflections while not doing much to drive play in the other two zones. With Boston, he had his best results with skilled players in the middle of the roster like Charlie Coyle or Morgan Geekie. They could set him up in the slot and let Frederic thrive as the high forwards in the offensive zone. The Oilers don’t have the same type of players to match him with, but they have time to figure out the best use for their new winger.

DEFENCE

Evan Bouchard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	17	56	73	0.90

It’s rare for a defenceman to score at a point-per-game pace in a full playoff run and have it be a significant step down from his production the previous year. It wasn’t long ago where Bouchard still had a lot to prove and some were questioning if he could be a reliable top four guy instead of just a power play specialist. Two years later, he’s forced himself into the conversation as one of the best defencemen in the league. Point production can cloud perception and while Bouchard certainly eats on the power play, his offensive game at even strength is almost unmatched. He patrols the blue line so well, shooting for deflections and moving the puck from the point to the danger areas with relative ease. He takes some pressure off McDavid and Draisaitl with how often he handles the puck and joins the rush or the cycle, allowing them to get lost in coverage. Defenders have to respect Bouchard from the perimeter too, as he’s always a threat to score deep and if you give him space, he can pick a corner or just blast it over the goalie’s shoulder. His strengths, breaking the puck out under pressure, cover some of his flaws with his awareness in the defensive zone because the Oilers don’t have to defend much when he’s on the ice. Where he gets exposed is after a turnover, as he doesn’t make the best reads when it’s a panic situation. It’s made some analysts hesitant to classify Bouchard as an elite defenceman even if he checks most of the boxes. He has improved every year, so this is something that can get better with more time and experience.

Jake Walman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	6	26	32	0.46

Walman climbed the ladder from a seventh defenceman and part-time forward in St. Louis to heavy top-pair defenceman in Detroit in a short period of time. It was a shocker when the Red Wings dealt him to San Jose, paying the Sharks to take him, because he had played such a massive role on that team. The Sharks welcomed him on their top-pair with open arms, and he was near the top of the league in ice time per game. He was their lone proven mobile defenceman and did an excellent job of calming the waters on a rebuilding roster. Walman’s game is all about skating and puck moving. He’s an excellent one-man breakout and he defends with his legs more than his body, not putting up huge points but making life easier for San Jose’s young forwards by keeping the puck moving north at all times, while doing his best to put out fires in his own zone. The Sharks dealing him made sense on the surface, as they’re not going to be competitive for a while, but Walman’s roster spot is not going to be easily replaced. He is more properly slotted in the 2^nd pair slot, but the potential of pairing him with Bouchard to have one dominant pair is still on the table for them. Walman spent most of the playoffs on the other pairs, carrying along some of their weaker defencemen and that might be the best role for him while the Oilers are still figuring out what works on their blue line.

Darnell Nurse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	7	30	37	0.47

While Bouchard has his critics, there is no bigger lightning rod in Edmonton than Darnell Nurse. The Oilers paid him like a top pair defenceman after a career season and he hasn’t come close to matching that point pace since. His mistakes get scrutinized because they’re easy to point out to the naked eye. He’s an aggressive, attack-minded defenceman, so he gets caught out of position often and is the first one pointed out on the highlights by fans. He’s a powerful skater but a wildly inaccurate passer when breaking the puck out, which makes him an awkward fit behind the top line. The Oilers have transitioned him to more of a pure shutdown role and it suits him better. His on-ice results have been better despite the criticism. He’s good enough at making the small plays with the puck on the breakout and using his body to breakup entries to be a net positive for the Oilers on the second pair. When he has to exit the zone himself is when the bad habits start to creep in because if there’s no lane to skate out of the zone, he usually goes for a home run pass and misses. Pairing him with a strong puck mover like Walman can cover up some of these flaws and have Nurse focus more on the heavier game, but it then becomes a question if $9.5 million is too much for a player you have to work around. That’s a question for management more than the coaching staff, though.

Mattias Ekholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	7	28	35	0.46

A rough ending to the Stanley Cup Final put a sour note on what was an excellent season for Mattias Ekholm. Still making some big plays in the final, including scoring a goal, Ekholm showed some rink rust in his return from an undisclosed injury that kept him out of the first three rounds. He got beat to the inside on a few goals and struggled to adjust when the pace of the games amped up. He is an integral part of the Oilers vaunted five-man unit as the safety valve for Evan Bouchard and a guy who can calm the waters. The Oilers are one of the few teams in the league that likes to regroup for their rush offence and Ekholm is a big part of that with how calmly he handles the puck in the neutral zone and finds open passing lanes. It’s incredibly tough to create offence like this in the NHL against set forechecks, so pinpoint passing is necessary and Ekholm is one of the best in the league at doing that. This part of his game is something Edmonton won’t need to worry about as he enters his late 30’s, but his endurance to play the heavy minutes and take hits along the wall is something they’ll need to monitor now. He has been durable throughout his career, and the final was the first time he looked like he lost a step, so we will see if that was rink rust or a sign of things to come for Ekholm.

Goal

Stuart Skinner

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	29	16	5	2	.902	2.78

Of all the teams to opt for more of the same in the 2025-26 season, perhaps the most surprising goaltending tandem to stay the course is the Edmonton Oilers. It's another year of Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner ahead for Oilers fans, suggesting - whether correct or not - that the Edmonton brass believe they had the winning formula this past year and don't want to mess it up this time around. On one hand, the Skinner-Pickard tandem - which saw the ever-enthusiastic Skinner take the bulk of the regular season games and Pickard help shoulder the workload more in the playoffs - seems to embody confident, upbeat vibes in net in a way that likely helps the team shake off disappointment, jitters, and tough stretches. But on the other hand, neither Pickard nor Skinner were the league's most reliable goaltender over the course of the regular season, which puts Edmonton in a position where they have to bank on both athletes either staying the course or regressing upwards. If either takes a step back, there's very little waiting in the wings of the Oilers depth chart to provide relief. This tandem likely has to help take the trophy home this year, or we'll be seeing a much bigger overhaul next summer.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Team Preview

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 20:00:27 +0000

_{WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 07: Washington Capitals center Dylan Strome (17) in action during the Ottawa Senators game versus the Washington Capitals on April 7, 2024 at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)}

Winning their last three games of the regular season, the Capitals won a tiebreaker with the Detroit Red Wings for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, recording 91 points (40-31-11). It was nearly scandalous to have them make the playoffs with a goal differential of -37 and they were summarily swept out of the first round by the New York Rangers. The Capitals ranked 26th in Corsi percentage (46.2%) and 25th in expected goals percentage (46.9%). The Washington power play ranked 18th with 7.37 goals per 60 minutes and the penalty killing ranked 18th with 7.60 goals against per 60 minutes. The Capitals’ underlying numbers suggested that this was not a team worthy of the playoffs, yet they managed to sneak in.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Capitals were busy this offseason attempting to restructure their roster. They traded goaltender Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles for centre Pierre-Luc Dubois and sent a draft pick to Calgary to acquire winger Andrew Mangiapane. Nick Jensen was sent to Ottawa in a deal for blueliner Jakob Chychrun, while a couple of draft picks were sent to Vegas in exchange for goaltender Logan Thompson. On top of the trades, the Capitals signed free agent defenceman Matt Roy from Los Angeles. Washington did not re-sign left winger Max Pacioretty, who struggled in his return from a torn Achilles, and veteran winger T.J. Oshie’s status for the 2024-25 season is uncertain as he tries to resolve a back injury. The Capitals have definitely opted to make changes with eye towards icing a more competitive team this season.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Since the Capitals are not going to rebuild, at least not while Alex Ovechkin is chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, success would probably be making the playoffs and having Ovechkin score at least 30 goals. For this team to do something above and beyond that seems so unlikely. There are other individual aspects that can be considered success, such as Washington finding a way to get Dubois back on track and seeing further development from young players like Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? With so much of the Capitals’ motivation geared towards Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky, it would be terrible if he suffers a significant injury or struggles like he did at the start of last season, when he had five goals through 29 games. Ovechkin starts this season 41 goals behind Gretzky’s record, so at the very least, they need him to score enough goals so that he can set the record in 2025-26. If it happens this season, that’s a bonus. If this team is trying to be competitive and ends up missing the playoffs by a few points, that’s not a great scenario because it means that the Capitals will get a lesser draft pick. There is going to come a time in the not-too-distant future that the Capitals will need prospects to emerge and take over the core of this team, which will make those picks especially important.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: The Capitals have a few young forwards who should have an opportunity to play more significant roles next season. Hendrix Lapierre played 51 games for the Capitals last season but was a standout for the Hershey Bears on the run to the Calder Cup in the American Hockey League. While Lapierre might be a good candidate for a breakout, Connor McMichael might be an even better candidate because the latter is further along in his development. He scored 18 goals and 33 points last season and looks like he should have a legitimate shot to play in Washington’s top six this season.

FORWARD

Alex Ovechkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	34	28	62	0.82

Chasing down Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals, Ovechkin looked like he might be cooked early last season, scoring just five goals in his first 29 games. In a career of unprecedented goal-scoring rates, Ovechkin’s demise seemed to be arriving in a hurry. At that rate, it would take him forever to catch Gretzky, but he figured it out. In his last 50 games, he tallied 26 goals and basically got back on track to reel in the record. In his late thirties, Ovechkin has clearly lost a step, maybe two. In four playoff games against the Rangers, not only did Ovechkin not record a point, but he had just five shots on goal. At his best, Ovechkin was a high-volume shooter who would just overwhelm goalies but as it gets harder for him to get those shots off, he is suddenly prone to slumps that were never part of his game before. Ovechkin had scored 92 goals across his previous two seasons, so last season’s early-season decline was a dramatic dip, and he averaged a career-low 3.44 shots on goal per game last season, which doesn’t figure to get better. He will get the record, but if Ovechkin is 41 goals away from tying Gretzky, that seems out of reach for the 2024-2025 season and if Ovechkin stumbles like he did early last season, it could get uncomfortable. That might sound bleak for a player who has scored at least 30 goals in 18 of his 19 seasons – with the only exception being when he scored 24 goals in 45 games during the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season – but age catches up with everyone and the greatest players, including Gretzky, were not the same at the very end. Forecasting Ovechkin at this point should come with some caution. He may still launch bombs from his familiar spot in the faceoff circle on the power play, but in 2024-2025, it’s fair to expect 25-30 goals and 60 points from Ovechkin.

Dylan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	41	66	0.80

Following an up-and-down start to his career in Arizona and Chicago, Strome has found a home in Washington, contributing 132 points for the Capitals in the past two seasons. Strome was the best version of himself last season, setting career highs in goals (27) and points (67), while averaging a career-high 17:57 per game and winning a career-best 52.8 percent of his faceoffs. Strome played mostly with Ovechkin and Tom Wilson and that does make him the No. 1 centre in Washington, albeit not necessarily a No.1 centre on a lot of other teams. Strome’s size and soft hands are at the core of his success, and he did shoot the puck more and had relatively strong possession numbers last season. He is, however, a decidedly not physical player, who has recorded a total of 43 hits in the past three seasons. Among the 223 forwards who played at least 200 games in that time, only four had fewer hits than Strome. That might have some impact on his appeal for fantasy managers, but when it comes to scoring, Strome is going to get quality ice time and should continue to produce in 2024-2025. It is reasonable to count on 25 goals and 60 points.

Tom Wilson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	20	24	44	0.57

Wilson is such a rare type of player, big and strong enough to play a traditional enforcer role, though that doesn’t hold as much appeal without as many dance partners. He also skates really well for a big man and has enough finishing skill to surpass 20 goals three times in his career. Last season, he scored 18 goals and 35 points, which does not look great, but his percentages played into that. Wilson scored on 10.1 percent of his shots, his lowest rate since 2016-2017, when he was still a fourth liner, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 5.5 percent was the lowest of his career. He had a two-month stretch from December 20 through February 20 during which he managed just three points in 25 games. For a player getting first-line minutes, that’s devastating. Wilson is not necessarily the one who will drive play for the Capitals, but if he plays on a scoring line, it would be extraordinarily unusual to maintain such a low on-ice shooting percentage. In addition to his scoring, Wilson is a consistent source of hits, recording 200 or more hits eight times in his career. When it comes to valuing Wilson, getting 35 points and 200-plus hits is adequate, but 50 points and 200-plus hits is a lot better, and that is still within his grasp. In 2024-2025, a reasonable expectation for Wilson is 20 goals and 45 points, plus 20 hits and 120 penalty minutes, making him a more valuable commodity in banger leagues.

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	33	58	0.71

It is very rare to be an NHL player who stands out for lack of effort. Usually there is such a baseline of hustle required to play that even players who are not noted grinders are still clearly trying. Dubois has, on multiple occasions, been flagged via video as a disinterested participant, and that really stands out because when he is engaged, Dubois can be a force in the game. He is strong and skilled, a powerful centre who can win battles and create scoring chances, but that only works if Dubois is putting in the effort. There was not nearly enough of that in his one season with the Los Angeles Kings, prompting his trade to Washington. It was a good buy-low situation for the Capitals, but not without risk because Dubois still has seven years remaining on what was an eight-year, $68 million contract extension. The one thing that the Capitals can lean on is that Dubois has the talent to be a difference maker. If they can find the button to unlock that talent, and keep it unlocked, he could easily bounce back and be a quality second line centre, maybe even pushing Strome for the No. 1 spot in Washington. Considering how last season went for Dubois, it is hard to be optimistic. At the same time, he can’t be much worse, can he? Look for 20 goals and 50 points from Dubois, better than last season, but not up to the level of the best production of his career.

Andrew Mangiapane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	24	45	0.55

Coming off a season in which he scored just 14 goals, Mangiapane was acquired from Calgary for a second-round pick in 2025. Mangiapane scored 35 goals in 2021-2022, burying 18.9 percent of his shots on goal, but that might have set unreasonable expectations, and he scored 31 goals across the next two seasons. An undersized winger, Mangiapane works hard, plays with some jam and is not afraid to get his nose dirty, either battling on the boards or attacking the net in the offensive zone, but his shot rate dropped significantly last season, to 1.63 per game from 2.22 the year before. It’s so difficult to be a consistent offensive threat with so few shots. His most common linemates in Calgary last season were Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, and that line controlled 54.1 percent of expected goals, so there should have been more opportunities for Mangiapane to join the attack. In Washington, Mangiapane figures to play a complementary role, which is the only reasonable expectation given his recent production, but 20 goals and 45 points should be in range for Mangiapane. If he ends up skating on a line with Dubois, that brings a great deal of uncertainty, so Mangiapane could be a sleeper candidate due to lower expectations.

Connor McMichael

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	21	23	44	0.54

A first-round pick in 2019, it has taken some time for McMichael to find his footing in the National Hockey League, but he started to make his mark in 2023-2024, scoring 18 goals and 33 points. He still has room to improve as he was on the wrong end of the possession game and the Capitals were outscored 47-31 during five-on-five play when McMichael was on the ice. He played centre last season, winning 42.4 percent of his draws, but could get moved to wing if he is going to take a role in Washington’s top six. He has shown good instincts, with an ability to put himself in a good position to score, and he has the quick hands to finish those opportunities. The 23-year-old forward is still trying to establish that he belongs in a top six role but took steps in that direction last season. He does need to shoot the puck more and will have to keep working hard at the physical game. He McMichael is not overpowering but can still use his energy to force mistakes and create more chances. If he sticks with a scoring line, McMichael should have chance to contribute 15 goals and 35 points in 2024-2025.

Aliaksei Protas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	10	21	31	0.39

A huge 6-foot-6 winger, Protas is from Belarus by way of the Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL. He has the puck skills to make plays, which can be unexpected given his frame. Protas could stand to use his size much more as he had 34 hits and eight penalty minutes in 78 games last season. He was one of three forwards in the NHL to play 78 games and had so few hits and penalty minutes (Matias Maccelli and Yegor Sharangovich were the others; Gustav Nyquist had two more hits). In the NHL, Protas has not yet been able to convert at a significant rate, scoring just 13 goals in 169 games, but when he uses his size to get to the net, he can control the space and be a threat to score on rebounds. He has scored on just 5.3 percent of his shots on goal which is clearly not going to cut it in an offensive role, but he is a 23-year-old and would hardly be the first monster forward who took some time to reach his full potential. Protas might be able to hold a spot in Washington’s top nine but given his peripheral stats, he probably won’t score enough to have standard fantasy value. He could put up 10 goals and 30 points, though, with potential for more if he pops a little offensively.

Sonny Milano

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	14	16	30	0.46

While he has not been a durable player who can be counted on as a fixture in the lineup, Milano continues to show the skills to be a useful offensive contributor even if it is in a limited role. In two seasons with Washington, Milano has scored 26 goals in 113 games. Among 373 forwards to play at least 1000 five-on-five minutes across those two seasons, Milano was tied for 49th with 1.00 goals per 60 minutes. Even though he only played 49 games last season, Milano scored a career-high 15 goals, thanks to a shooting percentage of 30.0. That is obviously not sustainable, but Milano’s shooting percentage across the previous six seasons was 14.2 percent, so he should be able to finish at an above average rate. Part of that is because Milano has exceptional hand-eye coordination, some of which results in on-ice tricks that are more entertaining than geared to competition, but he is also extremely comfortable with the puck on his stick. Milano has never played more than 66 games in a season, so he should be expected to miss games, but 10-15 goals and 30 points would be reasonable expectations for him. If he could manage to play a full season, Milano would have more value but, as is, he is more likely to be a short-term pickup when he’s running hot.

Hendrix Lapierre

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	14	19	33	0.42

Drafted in the first round of the 2020 Draft, Lapierre got his first extended NHL action last season and flashed potential, though it’s clear that he is still in the ascent stage of his career. He showed some flashes in the NHL, and a willingness to go to the front of the net to score, but also finished the season playing for Hershey in the American Hockey League playoffs, leading the Bears to a Calder Cup championship. Lapierre put up 22 points in 20 AHL playoff games, excellent preparation for him to play a more significant role in Washington next season. Lapierre has shown that he can handle the puck and make plays at a high level and as he matures in his pro career, more of that will be expected. On a Capitals team that is in flux, there will be ample opportunity for Lapierre in the coming seasons to establish his place as a productive scorer. As with many young centres, Lapierre has much room to improve when it comes to faceoffs. He won just 37.5 percent of his draws last season so that will need to get better. In his upcoming second NHL season, Lapierre should be able to contribute 30-35 points for the Capitals as he continues to climb in his career.

DEFENCE

John Carlson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	12	42	54	0.68

The veteran blueliner delivered a very strong season for the Capitals in 2023-2024, but there are some questions to be asked about why Carlson, now 34, played a career-high 25:54 per game last season. Carlson is an excellent player, has been for a long time, and at a stage when players are starting to lose a little ice time as acknowledgement that their play may be slipping, Carlson’s ice time jumped more than 2:30 from the previous season and two minutes per game above the two seasons before that! He also had his lowest rate of offensive zone starts since 2011-2012. New coach, new rules, apparently, but it is interesting to see a change in Carlson’s deployment at this stage of his career. He has 250 career power play points, which ranks seventh among active blueliners, and Carlson roared into the finish of the season. In the last month, he put up 14 points and 50 shots on goal in 17 games, while averaging 26:39 of ice time per game. Anyway, maybe the Capitals didn’t trust the rest of their defence corps, or at least they did not trust them enough to take ice time away from Carlson, who was still in stellar form by the end of the season. He is big and physically strong, though he does not play the kind of physical game that his strength might suggest. He does block shots, though. Carlson’s 194 blocked shots last season was his highest since 2014-2015. As players hit their mid-thirties, the production usually starts to wane and while Carlson may be making that a more gradual decline, he is not going to match his peak production when he surpassed a point per game in 2019-2020. For 2024-2025, it would be fair to project Carlson to produce 50-55 points.

Jakob Chychrun

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	33	48	0.59

The addition of Chychrun, via trade with Ottawa, gives the Senators a chance to have someone else handle big responsibilities on the blueline, potentially alleviating the pressure on Carlson. Chychrun played more than 22 minutes per game for the Senators last season, his fifth straight season crossing that threshold, and he put up 14 goals and 41 points, tying for the highest point total of his career. For the first time in his career, Chychrun blocked more than 100 shots, finishing with 154. He figures to partner with Carlson, giving Washington an upgrade when it comes to moving the puck, and attacking, from the blueline. The flip side of that coin is that Chychrun’s defensive play was not great in two seasons with the Senators, as he recorded a higher expected goals against per 60 minutes in his two seasons with Ottawa than he did in any of his previous seven seasons with the Coyotes. The Senators were also outscored 85-61 during five-on-five play with Chychrun on the ice so he is not joining the Capitals at a high point in his defensive value. Nevertheless, Chychrun is a 26-year-old defenceman who is used to handling responsibility and he will be an upgrade on the Washington defence. It’s entirely reasonable for the Capitals to expect another 40-point season for Chychrun, who is in his prime and ready to handle a big role on this team.

Rasmus Sandin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	4	23	27	0.36

After Sandin had a sizzling start with the Capitals late in the 2022-2023 season, finishing with 15 points in 19 games after he was acquired from Toronto, expectations were higher for him coming into the 2023-2024 campaign. A smooth puck-moving defenceman, Sandin had been buried on the Maple Leafs depth chart and it looked like there would be more opportunity with the Capitals. While he did play more, averaging a career-high 21:07 per game, Sandin only mustered 23 points, with just five on the power play. Some of that may be a function of working on the second power play unit, but the offensive production fizzled and with Chychrun arriving, Sandin could even lose his power play role altogether. Also, while playing third pair minutes in Toronto, Sandin was winning the possession battle, ranging between 50-55 percent depending on the metric, even up a few more percentage points by expected goals, but in his first two season-plus with the Capitals, Sandin Corsi and expected goals percentage have languished in the 45-46 percent range. No matter how he is deployed, Sandin is a smooth-skating and skilled defenceman who will engage physically but is also on the smaller side, so sometimes that can present matchup problems. With some uncertainty around his role, it’s probably fair to expect about 25 points from Sandin, with the possibility for more if he secures regular power play time.

Martin Fehervary

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	15	18	0.24

A defenceman who has yet to produce 20 points in a season is hardly the dream candidate for a spot on a fantasy roster, but Fehervary’s value is tied more to peripheral categories. He can produce 15-20 points and log about 20 minutes per game, but Fehervary has recorded more than 100 blocked shots and more than 180 hits in all three of his NHL seasons. He has good size, is not shy about using it, and skates quite well, which makes him an effective defender because he excels at closing gaps and taking away space from opposing players. Fehervary was more aggressive offensively prior to last season, when his shot and expected goal rates declined, but at this early stage of his career, Fehervary is much more about potential anyway. If he found a consistent role in the top four, which is not out of the question, he could contribute 20-25 points, to go along with 200 hits and 125 blocked shots. That is the kind of contribution that would have value for banger leagues or even deep standard leagues.

GOAL

Charlie Lindgren

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
40	20	15	5	2	0.908	2.79

Logan Thompson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
38	19	14	5	1	0.906	2.72

The Darcy Kuemper experiment is over in Washington, and it’s becoming increasingly hard to deny that the Metropolitan Division club is nearing the end of their prime window. With their role in the league somewhat up in the air next year, it appears the Capitals decided to spend a season keeping their goaltending tandem in a bit of a holding pattern; they’ll start the season with former Vegas prospect Logan Thompson joining the fray, and Charlie Lindgren will presumably get to step up and try his hand at being the veteran presence following his first full year as the team’s number one.

Lindgren was thrust into the starting role last year after Darcy Kuemper’s numbers took a tumble, but he did an admirable job dragging the team into the playoff conversation despite a middling roster around him. It’s hard to tell just how replicable his results will be - his technical game still has a few exploitable flaws and he’ll be coming off his first heavy-workload season at the NHL level to boot - but the addition of Thompson in lieu of an oft-injured Kuemper should be a welcome reprieve for Lindgren. It’s unlikely Washington is looking to challenge for the cup next year, but this tandem certainly doesn’t look like a glaring liability, either.

FANTASY HOCKEY: The Week Ahead – October 16th to 23rd

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 18:11:28 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

The first week of the season is in the books and it was certainly interesting. While I hesitate to read too much into such a small sample size, the Oilers’ goaltending situation is concerning after being outscored 12-4 over two contests versus Vancouver. Jack Campbell is coming off a rough 2022-23 campaign and Stuart Skinner had just 64 regular season contests worth of NHL experience going into the season, so neither is a safe bet and to see them both struggle out of the gate is worrying.

Then of course there’s Auston Matthews, who opened the season with back-to-back hat tricks. Again, it’s just the start of the campaign, but he is a genuine candidate for 50-in-50, and I don’t say that lightly. During 2021-22, he scored 50 goals in 49 outings from Nov. 26-April 9, and while that technically doesn’t count because it wasn’t from the start of the campaign, it does highlight what Matthews is capable of when he’s healthy and at his best.

On a macro level, one average I’ll be very interested in keeping an eye on is goals per team per game. In recent years, we’ve seen a steady increase in offense, to the point where the average team scored 3.18 goals per game in 2022-23 – the highest level since 1993-94 when Pavel Bure led the league with 60 goals and nine players reached the 50-goal milestone. Will that upward trend continue? Through Saturday’s action, the average team has scored 3.22 goals per game this season, but we’re still way too early in the campaign for that to mean anything.

What further highlights the unreliability of these early numbers is power-play opportunities, which stand at 3.86 per team per game. In other words, the average team has been receiving nearly one extra power play a game compared to last season, which probably speaks more to the referees establishing themselves and sloppy early season play than any actual long-term trend. Still, these macro numbers will be interesting to monitor as the campaign progresses.

Arizona Coyotes

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/16/2023	ARI	NYR
Tue	10/17/2023	ARI	NYI
Thu	10/19/2023	ARI	STL
Sat	10/21/2023	ANA	ARI

The Coyotes begin the week with three road games against the Rangers on Monday, Islanders on Tuesday and Blues on Thursday. They will then host Anaheim on Saturday to wrap up the week. With four games on the schedule, including a contest against a rebuilding team in the Ducks, this is a pretty solid week to take some Coyotes players.

I would avoid taking Arizona’s goaltending because the defense isn’t good enough to support the netminders, but this could be a good week for top prospect Logan Cooley. The 19-year-old forward registered a pair of assists in his NHL debut while logging 19:02 of ice time, including 5:05 with the man advantage. Shining offensively out of the gate is nice, but what matters more for his prospects for the rest of the season was how much the Coyotes were willing to lean on him. They should continue to give Cooley every opportunity to succeed.

Defenseman Sean Durzi, who provided a power-play goal in Arizona’s opener, is another player who appears to be on the rise. He established personal bests in 2022-23 with nine goals and 38 points in 72 contests, including 16 power-play points, as a member of the Kings. He averaged a respectable 2:06 with the man advantage during that campaign, but Arizona is using him on the first power-play unit, which could lead to the 24-year-old reaching new career highs.

For Jason Zucker, this week could be a big test. He had 27 goals and 48 points with Pittsburgh last year and joined the Coyotes on a one-year, $5.3 million contract. It was thought the move to a rebuilding squad might lead to Zucker playing a bigger role, but instead he logged a modest 14:10 of ice time in Arizona’s season opener. Zucker did see time on even strength with Cooley though, so there is still an opportunity here for Zucker to put up solid numbers.

Calgary Flames

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/16/2023	CGY	WSH
Thu	10/19/2023	CGY	BUF
Fri	10/20/2023	CGY	CBJ
Sun	10/22/2023	CGY	DET

The Flames will be on the road this week, but at least they’re among the teams set to play four games with their trip taking them to Washington on Monday, Buffalo on Thursday, Columbus on Friday and Detroit on Sunday. The Capitals, Sabres and Red Wings are middle of the pack squads at best while the Blue Jackets are a rebuilding team, so Calgary also isn’t facing the stiffest of competition.

With the busy schedule, we should see the season debut of Dan Vladar. He wasn’t great last year with a 2.91 GAA and an .892 save percentage in 27 contests, but if he ends up starting versus Columbus – which seems plausible given it’s the second half of the back-to-back – then he’d be worth using. The Blue Jackets ranked 30th with 2.60 goals per game last campaign.

Calgary’s first line of Andrew Mangiapane, Elias Lindholm and Jonathan Huberdeau is red hot with the trio combing for four goals and 11 points over the Flames’ first two contests. It’s encouraging to see that start out of Huberdeau in particular, after he dropped from 115 points in 2021-22 with Florida to just 55 points last year as a member of the Flames.

In terms of depth players who might have a good week, Adam Ruzicka is worthy of consideration. Though he had just 20 points in 44 games in 2022-23 and has averaged a modest 11:47 of ice time over the Flames’ first two contests this year, Ruzicka is getting even strength time with Nazem Kadri and Dillon Dube, which is solid, and he’s being employed on the second power-play unit.

Rookie Matthew Coronato, who scored his first NHL goal Saturday, should also make for a solid selection this week given his usage on the first power-play unit.

Dallas Stars

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/17/2023	DAL	VGK
Thu	10/19/2023	DAL	ANA
Sat	10/21/2023	PHI	DAL

Dallas will play just three games this week and the first one is on the road Tuesday versus the defending champion Golden Knights. After that, though, Dallas’ schedule gets far easier with a contest in Anaheim on Thursday and a home game versus Philadelphia on Saturday. In other words, the Stars will face two of the worst teams in the league with a day of rest in between.

Roope Hintz unfortunately missed Dallas’ opener because of an upper-body injury, but he was a full participant in Friday’s practice, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back in the lineup versus Vegas. With him presumably available, Dallas has three great lines with Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski making up the top unit, Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston and Evgenii Dadonov serving as the second line, and Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin being the third grouping

That forward group should be extremely effective against Columbus and Philadelphia, which ranked 31st and 23rd in terms of goals allowed per game last season. Most of those Dallas forwards are already fairly highly regarded and thus not cheap, but Marchment and Dadonov are fairly affordable points of entry, and both have strong enough linemates to boost their value.

Detroit Red Wings

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/16/2023	DET	CBJ
Wed	10/18/2023	PIT	DET
Sun	10/22/2023	CGY	DET
Sat	10/21/2023	DET	OTT

The Red Wings will play four games this week and none of those contests will be against teams that made the playoffs last year. More specifically, they’ll be in Columbus on Monday, host the Penguins on Wednesday, play in Ottawa on Saturday and then conclude the week with a home game versus the Flames.

It’s a great set for Alex DeBrincat, who has hit the ground running with Detroit, scoring three goals and four points in his first two contests. He’ll face his former team, the Senators, on Saturday, so that one should be a fun game.

Another new addition to the team, J.T. Compher, has also shined with a goal and three points over his first two contests with the Red Wings. One of his linemates, Michael Rasmussen, has never recorded more than 30 points in a single campaign. However, Rasmussen is averaging a healthy 16:22 of ice time in 2023-24 and with that top-six role, we might see the 24-year-old do a bit more offensively. If nothing else, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on him this week to see how he responds with both a favorable assignment and favorable competition.

The other X-Factor is Robby Fabbri, who is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. He did skate Monday, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back in the lineup soon. When he does play, Fabbri will likely serve on the third line and second power-play unit. He’s not a major offensive threat, but on a week like this, there’s a decent chance he’d chip in if healthy.

Minnesota Wild

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/17/2023	MIN	MTL
Thu	10/19/2023	LAK	MIN
Sat	10/21/2023	CBJ	MIN

The Wild will play on the road against the rebuilding Canadiens on Tuesday before hosting Los Angeles and Columbus on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. It’s only three contests, but they’re well spread out and two of them are against squads not expected to reach the postseason.

Matthew Boldy has a goal and two points in two games, but he exited Saturday’s game versus Toronto with an undisclosed injury and might end up missing some time. If that’s the case, we might see Frederick Gaudreau slide into a top-six role. Gaudreau had 19 goals and 38 points in 82 contests last year. He hasn’t found his way onto the scoresheet yet in 2023-24, but he’s also averaged just 12:44 of ice time. If Gaudreau does move up to the second line, then he’d be worthy of a short-term pickup.

This will also be a week to keep an eye on Marco Rossi. The 22-year-old forward has significant offensive upside, but Minnesota used him sparingly over the first two contests – an average of just 12:26. Still, he did find the back of the net against Toronto and his role could expand as the campaign goes on.

Finally, we should get Marc-Andre Fleury’s first start this week. Although the schedule is spread out enough to allow Minnesota to lean exclusively on Filip Gustavsson, it would be surprising to see Fleury be made to wait much longer, especially after Gustavsson allowed seven goals on 33 shots Saturday. Even at the age of 38, Fleury is a solid goaltender and given the Wild’s upcoming competition, his first start of the campaign should be a favorable one.

Toronto Maple Leafs

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/16/2023	CHI	TOR
Thu	10/19/2023	TOR	FLA
Sat	10/21/2023	TOR	TBL

The Maple Leafs are a bit of a stretch to include here. Only three games and the final two are road contests against Florida and Tampa Bay on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Still, Toronto will host the lowly Blackhawks on Monday, and the Leafs’ offense is hot enough that I felt I needed to highlight them.

If you’re interested in daily leagues, it’s hard not to grab Auston Matthews on Monday. Sure, he’s expensive, but the Blackhawks are a particularly weak team defensively, and as mentioned at the top, Matthews couldn’t be hotter after scoring back-to-back hat tricks.

Matthews strong play has made some other stunning performances fly a bit under the radar. In particular, William Nylander has an incredible three goals and five points over his first two contests. Nylander can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this campaign, so he has all the motivation in the world to demonstrate his worth this year and make Toronto – or failing that, another team – pay him what he feels he’s due.

If you’re looking for a cheaper entry point to the Maple Leafs’ offense, Calle Jarnkrok is a potential answer. He’s off to a strong start with a goal and an assist, and practiced alongside Nylander on Sunday, so there’s a good chance we’ll see the two together Monday.

Two forwards who haven’t gotten going yet are rookies Matthew Knies and Fraser Minten. The youngsters have seen time together on the third line and that’s likely an arrangement that’s going to continue for now. They’re not great pickups this week, but Knies has enough upside that he’s worth monitoring.

Washington Capitals

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/16/2023	CGY	WSH
Wed	10/18/2023	WSH	OTT
Sat	10/21/2023	WSH	MTL

The Capitals are set to host Calgary on Monday, then play on the road against Ottawa and Montreal on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively. None of those teams made the playoffs last year, though to be fair, the Flames and Senators are both expected to be in the running this time around.

Regardless, this could be a big week for the Capitals, which should be hungry to bounce back after opening the campaign with a 4-0 loss to the rival Penguins. Connor McMichael is a somewhat under the radar player who might have a solid week. The 22-year-old has just nine goals and 18 points in 76 career NHL contests, but he is a former first round pick (25th overall in 2019) and served on the second line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson in the opener. McMichael averaged just 10:20 of ice time at the NHL level going into this campaign, so that partially explains his poor offensive numbers. Now that he’s getting top-six minutes, he’s worthy of consideration.

We could also get a strong week out of Rasmus Sandin. After scoring four goals and 20 points in 52 contests with Toronto last season, he was dealt to Washington on Feb. 28 and excelled with the Capitals, contributing three goals and 15 points in 19 contests over the remainder of the campaign. In part, his jump in production was due to Washington giving him a far bigger role. He went from averaging 17:59 with Toronto before the trade to 22:59 with the Capitals. Now set for his first full campaign with Washington, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sandin exceed the 40-point mark for the first time in his career.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – CALGARY FLAMES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 23 Sep 2023 11:34:31 +0000

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 20: Calgary Flames Right Wing Jonathan Huberdeau (10) looks on during the second period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the Philadelphia Flyers on February 20, 2023, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Review: If you were to name the most disappointing teams of 2022-23, the Flames would have to be near the top of the list. After losing their top two forwards in the summer of 20223, Calgary attempted to stay competitive by replacing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk in part with the acquisition of Jonathan Huberdeau (from the Tkachuk trade) and the signing of Nazem Kadri. While Kadri dropping from his career-best 87 points in 2021-22 to 56 points last season was unfortunate, it wasn’t particularly surprising given that he’s been a 40–60-point center for much of his career. What did shock was Huberdeau’s drop from 115 points in his final season with Florida to just 55 points last year. With their two new forwards not even coming close to filling the void left by Gaudreau and Tkachuk, Calgary stumbled to a 38-27-17 record and missed the playoffs.

What’s Changed? Despite a disappointing campaign, the Flames difficult cap position prevented them from making any significant signings. However, head coach Darryl Sutter has been replaced Ryan Huska, which might give Calgary’s forwards the freedom to be more creative. The Flames also dealt Tyler Toffoli, who had 73 points last season, but usually gets just 40-50, and received a significantly younger forward from New Jersey in Yegor Sharangovich.

What would success look like? The Flames do have an opportunity to get back into the playoffs even with largely the same core. Huberdeau clearly struggled under Sutter, but Huska will offer him a fresh start and given Huberdeau’s long track record of success, a bounce back campaign is a reasonable hope. The Flames also might get more out of Jacob Markstrom, who struggled last season with a 2.92 GAA and an .892 save percentage in 59 contests. Calgary had the fourth lowest five-on-five expected goals against last season (159.77), suggesting that the defense was good, but Markstrom didn’t live up to his end of the bargain. Calgary’s defense might dip a bit without Sutter at the helm, but when Markstrom’s at his best, he can look great with even an average defense in front of him.

What could go wrong? If Huberdeau doesn’t get going this year though, then this could be a nightmare for Calgary. After all, the Flames made an eight-year, $84 million commitment to him that doesn’t expire until 2031. Combine that with Kadri’s seven-year, $49 million contract through 2028-29, which will look worse during the backend given that he’ll turn 33 in October, and new GM Craig Conroy has some potentially bad contracts anchoring him down. This team is in danger of falling into the awkward position of being too bad to be a serious contender, but too heavily committed to veterans to do a proper rebuild.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharangovich had an okay, but not great 53 goals and 106 points in 205 games over his first three seasons with New Jersey, but the change of scenery could be great for him. The 25-year-old is projected to get an opportunity to play on the top line with Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm. That’s the role that helped Toffoli shatter his previous career high in points, and it could similarly provide Sharangovich with a significant boost.

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau - LW

Fresh off a 115-point season, Huberdeau’s first year in Calgary started off on the wrong foot and stayed that way. He didn’t score his first even strength goal until halfway through November and ended the season with his lowest point total since 2015. Switching teams can be tougher on some players than others and the ex-Panthers star never seemed to find any consistency with the Flames. He was moved back and forth on different lines, moved from left to right wing on almost a game-by-game basis and didn’t have much chemistry with any of his linemates. It made Huberdeau more one-dimensional, often looking to pass and not getting any open shot opportunities like he did in Florida. Combining that with the slower pace Calgary plays at led to a serious regression for Huberdeau across the board. Flashes of what makes him great are still there, he is a terrific passer and can create chances out of nothing, but Calgary not having the speed or the finishing talent puts a ceiling on what he can do. He might just be a good player instead of an elite one now, but Calgary is hoping a fresh start with a new coaching staff can change that.

Elias Lindholm - C

Nobody felt the loss of Gaudreau and Tkachuk more than Calgary’s top line center. He only got a short run with Huberdeau to start the year before getting slotted on a line with Dillon Dube and Tyler Toffoli, which he made the most of but not at the level we’ve seen from him before. Blessed with a terrific shot and great offensive instincts, he didn’t change his game much. He could still get to scoring areas and find soft spots behind the defense, the quality of the passes he was receiving were just off and sometimes that’s all it takes when you’re used to playing with elite linemates. Ending up with a respectable 23 goals, only 10 of them were scored at even strength and most of his production came from setting up Tyler Toffoli, who had a career season. One year removed from finishing third in Selke voting, Lindholm’s game away from the puck stayed mostly the same, it’s also where most of his strengths lie. He is usually in the right spot and excels at keeping the play going rather than skating out of the zone or leading the rush. Developing some chemistry with Huberdeau could go a long way for him as he enters the last year of his contract.

Nazem Kadri - C

Kadri cashed in on a career 87-point season with the Avs and his first year in Calgary was more “business as usual” for him. He did just about everything the Flames asked out of him and had a nice season that was more in-line with his career numbers. You’ll probably get 20-something goals and 55+ points out of him. It’s a little disappointing when compared to the $7 million AAV contract. The Flames will be paying him for the next six years, but he does a lot for you even when he’s not getting on the scoresheet. Most of his lines are positive in terms of tilting the ice and he backchecks harder than almost anyone on the team. He is also someone who could have a bigger year if the Flames can play with a little more tempo. Kadri was their best player at turning zone entries into scoring chances and while his own shot isn’t good, his speed can create space for linemates and help them generate more give-and-go chances off the rush. Kadri did a good job of creating his own chances, but he usually needs a rebound or someone else setting him up to score. It’s tough to see Calgary doing that with their current roster, but they still have a high floor with what they’ll get out of Kadri.

Mikael Backlund - C

Calgary’s longest tenured player has been a model of consistency for 14 years running. He is always dependable for giving the Flames a solid baseline of skill and defensive play in their middle-six. You usually know what you’re getting out of him, as he handles a lot of tough matchups and defensive minutes for the Flames while providing some spark offensively. It makes Calgary’s depth lines a tough out on most nights, especially on the penalty kill where he plays more minutes than any other Flame. He is the type of player most fans will look back on in a few years and say he should have been higher on most Selke ballots but never really had that one year where he stacked up favorably against Bergeron or the other elites in the league. Still, he will probably go down as one of the more underrated forwards of the modern era, as his shutdown play is only really appreciated by those who follow Calgary and not much else. Scoring a career high in points at 33 years of age, he still has a lot to give but is entering the age where most forwards enter a decline. That said, Calgary probably isn’t worried about that for next year.

Andrew Mangiapane - RW

Finally having that breakout season in 2021-22, Mangiapane saw his shooting percentage crash down to earth last year. He had the perfect storm of being a player who finished at a high rate while creating a boatload of chances with ice-time as the only thing keeping him back. This year, the chances were still there but the finishing wasn’t. It was a little flummoxing, as he brings a lot of qualities that should thrive in a Sutter-hockey system. He has no problem getting to the net and most of his goals in 2021 were of the “loose change” variety where he found himself picking up the scraps or a rebound. Those opportunities were still there, but he couldn’t finish on them at the same rate, as opposing defenders caught onto how to defend the Flames quicker than they did last year. Mangiapane had to change his game as the year went on, learning how to play off the rush more and got himself open in the slot instead of simply going to the net. It worked to a point, as he still scored at a respectable clip, but he still left some offense on the table. He should continue to be a fixture in the Flames middle-six.

Blake Coleman - RW

There aren’t many players who took the path Coleman did to the NHL and had a long career. Playing all four years in college and signing with the same team that drafted him, Coleman established himself as one of the league’s better checking line forwards after a few years in New Jersey. He has since gone on to have a great career, winning two Cups in Tampa Bay before turning into a long-term deal with the Flames. They’ve gotten just about what they expected from him, an energetic, high-motor forward who chips in with enough goals to stay in the top-nine. He is perfectly slotted alongside Mikael Backlund on the Flames third line and as one of the workhorses on Calgary’s penalty kill. The only issue you’ll find with Coleman is that he is one of many forwards on the Flames who play an honest game but have limited offensive upside. Coleman’s speed gives them a little more of an explosive element off the rush and when poaching for shorthanded goals, but checking liners can only do so much without the horses in front of them pulling their weight.

Dillon Dube - RW

In some ways last year was a step forward for Calgary’s 2016 first round pick. He scored a career high in points and tied his career high in goals. How he got to that point was the frustrating part, ending the year on a dismal note with only one goal since the beginning of March. The Flames gave him every opportunity to produce, playing him alongside Elias Lindholm and he got plenty of puck touches every game. It was just a matter of being efficient when he got the puck, which only happened sometimes. He gives the Flames some quickness but dumps the puck in more than he carries in, has a decent shot but takes a lot of empty calorie wristers from the outside. The saving grace was that he provided some quick strike offense in the Flames top nine and turned it into a career season. Calgary was just left wondering if this is as good as it gets with him. Dube’s been a solid middle-of-the-roster player since he arrived, but he had a chance to do more, and the returns were only okay instead of great.

Yegor Sharangovich - LW

Sharangovich was a solid piece in the Devils rebuild until last year. He had a couple of good seasons alongside Jack Hughes and looked like a solid complementary piece in the middle-six. The Devils added some more forward depth and Sharangovich lost his usual running mate, trying to find a home in the Devils bottom-six and even found himself a healthy scratch in the playoffs. It’s easy to see why he can be something great. The shot speaks for itself, and he is also the type of winger who will go back to start the breakout and it made him a nice fit alongside a strong puck-carrier like Hughes. He’s also very good at pulling up to create his own shot, which becomes difficult when your role becomes more about defense and checking. It’s tough to say if that will change in Calgary, but the Devils thought he reached his ceiling and opted to upgrade. He has more of a blank canvas to work with in Calgary and plays a similar style to most of their wingers.

Adam Ruzicka - C

In a tough year you look for positives and Ruzicka was that for Calgary after he was inserted into the lineup in November. He was a dark horse Calder candidate in his first 20 games, scoring six goals and 17 points while earning some minutes on the power play unit in the process. The problem? He didn’t score for the rest of the year and had only three points in his final 24 games. Healthy scratched for most of the month of March and not playing a single game after March 20^th as Calgary gave some other forward prospects a look. He’s a big forward who is very effective at using his body to defend the front of the net and help exit the zone, so there could be a place for him in Calgary’s lineup going forward. His hot start might have set expectations too high and while the former 4^th round pick has nothing left to prove in the AHL, he’s going to have some competition with Calgary looking to give more Wranglers a shot this year. His big frame and willingness to play a bottom-six role could be what keeps him in.

Defense

Rasmus Andersson - D

One of the strangest injuries of the NHL season was when this Calgary defenseman was hit by a car while riding a scooter during an off day in Detroit. He missed only three games and scored a career-high 11 goals. Amidst all the chaos with the Flames, he might have been one of their bright spots. Not the first defenseman you would expect to post just under 100-points over the past two seasons, but being a right-shot and a great passer has its benefits. It’s made him the top option to run Calgary’s power play for the past couple years. Scored all but one of his goals last year at even strength. Doesn’t waste a lot of shots, often jumping in from the point or taking the one-timer when he has the time and space. Play away from the puck is spotty at times because he’s not the best at pivoting or dealing with forwards with speed. Will often rely on his partner or stay to the middle when defending entries, opening up more ice. The offense he brings has offset some of these issues the last couple of years, but it’s something Calgary has to work around with the minutes he logs.

Mackenzie Weegar- D

The rare right-shot defenseman who plays the left side, Weegar gives you a little of everything on the backend. Not the biggest defenseman but makes up for it with his strength and how effective he is at denying entries. Usually attacks from an angle to take the puck away instead of standing up forwards or going for a big hip check. Made a great tandem with Christopher Tanev as two of the league’s better skating defenders and is one of the best in the league at helping his team beat a forecheck. Wasn’t as dynamic with leading the offense in Calgary compared to Florida, but there’s a limit on how much of an impact he can have on offense if he doesn’t have the right forwards to complement him. Also, turnover prone at times, but the good outweighs the bad with him, especially with the ridiculous workload he handles in the defensive zone, both with chasing forwards down and retrieving pucks. Point total will likely be dictated by how well the forwards in front of him finish and how much he is allowed to roam in the offensive zone. He was mostly active on pinches and the odd zone entry as opposed to being a pure rover in Florida. Still a key piece to any team’s top-four.

Noah Hanifin- D

Solid, yet unspectacular is one way to describe the former Boston College star. He has the ideal size and skillset for a defenseman to dominate today’s NHL and the results have usually been good, even if you have to really pay attention to appreciate what he does. He doesn’t have a flashy highlight reel, but he eats a lot of minutes, and the Flames are usually on the better end of it. Once every blue moon he’ll have a game where the offense pops, effortlessly gaining the zone 3-4 times to set up a goal or lead an end-to-end rush on his own. This and acting as the trailer off the rush are when you really see the game-breaking ability out of him, he’s got a sneaky good wrister and can score from distance. Most of the time, he takes care of his own end and plays more of a simple game. Can read the game well and knows when to back off at the line instead of standing up a forward. Uses his reach to deny rush chances but gives forwards too much of a gap sometimes. Makes him a very boom-or-bust defenseman when defending entries, but the rest of his game is solid. Hi toolset is still a hockey scout’s dream and he will get a big raise after next year.

Christopher Tanev- D

Before Jaccob Slavin and Jonas Brodin, Chris Tanev was the first mobile shutdown defenseman of the 2010’s. Providing hockey nerds with endless clips of him skating forwards into the boards until they give up the puck or turning a blocked shot into a rush the other way. This will be his 14^th season in the NHL and his game hasn’t changed much at all. He’s had so few years where he wasn’t on the positive side of the goals or expected goals ledger that it’s really hard to find a fault in his game except maybe the lack of offense. He doesn’t bring much of a dynamic skillset once the puck gets over the red line and almost never shoots the puck, but nobody is ever going to get upset with him for that, as he’s there to prevent chances first and foremost. The only real question for him is if 14 years, most of them being filled with injuries, start to take their toll on the RIT grad. He doesn’t play an overly physical game, but still logs a lot of tough minutes and those eventually add up when you enter your mid-30’s.

Goaltending

Jacob Markstrom - G

Just when it seemed like Jacob Markstrom had figured out his game in Calgary, the Flames lost a handful of their big stars in high-profile off-season shakeups that left the team reeling. Despite the team’s faith in a back-from-the-retirement-life head coaching stint from Darryl Sutter, the Flames stuttered in a baffling Western Conference and fell out of playoff contention altogether – and they took Markstrom’s numbers with them.

The Swedish-born netminder had one of his worst seasons in the NHL to date, and his game looked like it struggled as much visually as it did on paper. Always better at getting good reads from his feet and making stops that bought him time to recover from his knees, Markstrom looked sluggish when dealing with pressure around the net and struggled to pick up second and third chances when opponents capitalized on softer rebounds. That can’t all be attributed to Markstrom himself, of course; the veteran Flames backstop thrives when given the opportunity to work with a defensive structure that scoops errant pucks and prevents incoming traffic from putting pressure on in the blue paint, and Calgary’s defence failed to deliver in that area last year. But some of the holes in his game – including his regression to some sloppier angles that saw Markstrom stay a little flatter on the goal line and avoid fluid lateral movement – suggest that he might simply be showing some of the signs of wear and tear that his heavier workload the last two years may have put on his body.

While his performance last year makes it hard to feel overly confident about what he can do this year, Markstrom does have plenty of backup available in the wings – it will simply be a matter of who sits as his number two. Czech netminder Daniel Vladar, whose lanky build and energetic movements keep fans on their toes and opponents guessing just what he’ll do next, is back for another season to hopefully bounce back from his own lackluster 2022-23 campaign. And perhaps more exciting is the likely appearance of prospect Dustin Wolf, whose otherworldly performance at the AHL level last season make it harder and harder to justify keeping him waiting in the wings if both Markstrom and Vladar find themselves struggling again next year. Wolf seems to be the best statistical option for the Flames, but he’s the most flexible with regards to where they can play him and the cheapest they have under contract; it’s likely all three goaltenders will share some time in net next year, it’s just hard to pinpoint just who will be taking on the largest workload when all is said and done.

Projected starts: 45-50

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Difference makers in the final week of the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Apr 2023 19:01:41 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players that might make a difference in the final week of the season, including Alex Lyon, David Perron, and Thomas Novak, plus some keeper league options to consider.

#1 In a season with some unexpected goaltending performances, Florida getting clutch performances out of 30-year-old Alex Lyon is one of the bigger surprises. With the Panthers pushing for a playoff spot, and Sergei Bobrovsky injured, the job has fallen to Lyon. He stopped 56 of 58 shots in Thursday’s 7-2 win over Ottawa, marking his fifth straight win, and he has a .961 save percentage in those five starts.

#2 Veteran winger David Perron is finishing strong for a Red Wings squad that has generally been fading down the stretch. Perron has put up 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He is making the most of his opportunity on Detroit’s top line with Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik. That trio has been excellent, capturing 59.2% of expected goals and 68.1% of goals during five-on-five play.

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Nashville’s improbable push for a playoff spot has been due in no small part to the emergence of young players who have been thrust into bigger roles. Center Thomas Novak is still widely available in fantasy leagues, despite scoring 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in his past 26 games. The 25-year-old had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 27 games as a rookie last season, and started this season in the American Hockey League, so maybe it should not be surprising that he is so readily available, but his production deserves respect.

#4 On a lesser scale, Predators center Cody Glass has at least established his credentials as an NHL player and has contributed six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has been averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game since the trade deadline, and the Preds remain in the playoff hunt into the final week of the regular season.

#5 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 4-1 win against Minnesota, Penguins right winger Bryan Rust has finished strong in what has otherwise been a relatively disappointing season. The industrious winger has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 20 goals for the fourth consecutive season. Rust has scored on just 9.6% of his shots this season, his lowest mark since 2015-2016.

#6 After erupting for a career-high 35 goals last season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has 17 goals and 40 points heading into the final week of the regular season. However, he has been finding the scoresheet more frequently, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past 11 games, as he continues to thrive on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. That trio has controlled 66.8% of expected goals and 72.9% of goals during five-on-five play. If the Flames somehow manage to reach the postseason, a lot of credit will be due to that line.

#7 Last week, I hit on several St. Louis Blues players that are providing good value late in the season. Add one more this week: Alexei Toropchenko. The 23-year-old scored a goal in Thursday’s 3-2 win over the Rangers, giving him six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing nearly 14 minutes per game in his past six games.

#8 Consistency is sometimes elusive for the Rangers’ Kid Line, but Alexis Lafreniere has delivered seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games. He has scored 35 of his 39 points at even strength, the same as Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand, among others.

#9 The top five defensemen when it comes to goals this season are largely who one might expect to finish in that top tier – Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, and Cale Makar hold down four of the top five spots. Tied with Josi, and one goal ahead of Makar, is Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Brady Skjei who has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#10 Frequently a reluctant shooter, Blue Jackets center Jack Roslovic has put up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has 44 points (11 G, 33 A) on the season, one off the career-high 45 points that he produced last season. Roslovic is having some late season success with rookie Kent Johnson on his wing.

#11 The Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche are the only two teams that still have five games remaining on their respective regular-season schedules. For fantasy squads that need every possible edge, finding a few extra games can make a difference. A couple of Sabres worth considering:

Owen Power – Buffalo’s rookie defenseman has six assists in his past five games. There is a ceiling on his offensive upside as long as Rasmus Dahlin is quarterbacking the top power play unit, but five games from Power could offer more potential than three games from other defenders.

Casey Mittelstadt – With Tage Thompson working his way back from injury, the Sabres have kept Mittelstadt with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot more but has delivered nine assists in his past five games.

#12 And a couple of Avs that could offer a late season lift:

Samuel Girard – Although Devon Toews and Bowen Byram are even better options, especially when Cale Makar is missing games, Girard has four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past five games, giving him a career-high 35 points but he also has a career-high 111 blocked shots and his 64 hits is one away from his career best, set last season.

Evan Rodrigues – With Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, Rodrigues has the opportunity to skate on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen – a good place to ride their coattails to more points. When Rodrigues gets more ice time, the points have followed. He has 26 points (10 G, 16 A) in the 39 games in which he has played more than 17 minutes.

#13 The Top 10 scorers since the March 3 trade deadline, among players that were traded before the deadline:

Sammy Blais, St. Louis – 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 18 GP

Marcus Johansson, Minnesota – 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 GP

Timo Meier, New Jersey – 13 points (9 G, 4 A) in 18 GP

Rasmus Sandin, Washington – 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 15 GP

Jakub Vrana, St. Louis – 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in 17 GP

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis – 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Tyson Barrie, Nashville – 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 19 GP

Patrick Kane, N.Y. Rangers – 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in 15 GP

Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton – 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Nino Niederreiter, Winnipeg – 10 points (6 G, 4 A) in 17 GP

While players like Meier, Tarasenko, and Kane would have been rostered in most leagues, there was significant value to be found via unexpected sources. Blais is the most obvious, but Johansson, Sandin, and Vrana have seen a significant upgrade in their respective value since the deadline. Kane might have been the biggest name to move, but his production has been mediocre and he is nursing an injury, with an eye towards getting healthy for the postseason.

#14 If you’re looking for some keepers for next season, consider Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton of the Arizona Coyotes. Schmaltz has 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in his past 30 games and while he is not going to keep scoring on more than 22% of his shots, as he has during that hot stretch, he has a good thing going with Clayton Keller. Hayton has had similar success, putting up 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in his past 32 games and he has been generating more shots on goal, so he has not been as dependent on an inflated shooting percentage. The Coyotes should have some new faces up front next season, but Schmaltz and Hayton have shown in the second half of this season that they can be reliable offensive contributors.

#15 He has missed time following sports hernia surgery and has bizarrely seen his ice time cut this season but hold on to Winnipeg Jets right winger Nikolaj Ehlers. He has 36 points (12 G, 24 A) in 42 games but has played just 15:49 per game, a significant drop from the career-high 18:04 per game that he played last season. There could be changes in Winnipeg in the offseason, but Ehlers should be considered part of the solution there, with a bigger role than he has had in 2022-2023.

#16 A deeper cut for potential keepers for next season is Carolina Hurricanes center Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The 22-year-old pivot has scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in his past 18 games, lifting him to a modest career high of 39 points. This late surge does show some promise and Kotkaniemi should still be on his career ascent, even though he is wrapping up his fifth NHL season.

#17 While most fantasy managers would already be inclined to keep Florida Panthers winger Sam Reinhart, he is probably even more valuable than expected. Not only does Reinhart have 64 points (30 G, 34 A) in 79 games, but he has done this with a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.5%, which is very low for a scoring forward. That is the first time since 2017-2018 that it has been under 8.0%, so he is likely due to pick up more assists next season.

#18 On the surface, Ottawa Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a disappointing season, going from 41 goals in 2021-2022 to 26 goals this season. That does not mean that the 25-year-old sniper is not worth keeping for next season. His shooting percentage dropped to 10.1% this season, the second lowest mark of his career, but he generated 3.27 shots on goal per game this season, compared to 3.29 per game last season. A simple boost in shooting percentage could be enough for DeBrincat to get back to pushing for 40 goals. There is, admittedly, some uncertainty in where DeBrincat could play next season, as he is a restricted free agent due a high qualifying offer, but he is a good bet to be more productive in the 2023-2024 season.

#19 Known more for his defensive acumen, Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has still produced a career high 61 points (23 G, 38 A). The fascinating part is that Eriksson Ek is one of four players to have at least 10 fewer goals than their expected goals total on Natural Stat Trick. He has scored 23 goals with 34.45 expected goals, so it is reasonable to believe that there is even more offensive production possible. The other forwards to have missed their expected goals total by more than 10 are Carolina’s Stefan Noesen along with Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.

#20 Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid has run away with the scoring race, currently leading teammate Leon Draisaitl by 25 points. The last time a player won the scoring race by that wide a margin was in 1990-1991, when Wayne Gretzky had 32 more points than Brett Hull. McDavid has done this with massive power play production (69 of 148 points with the man advantage), so he has not even needed a lofty on-ice shooting percentage during five-on-five play. His on-ice shooting percentage of 9.4% is higher than last season but is still the second lowest mark of his career. This is all to say that even if the Oilers power play is not quite as dominant next season that McDavid still has some statistical wiggle room in his quest for another huge scoring season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – O’Reilly in Toronto, Orlov in Boston – Beauvillier, Domi, Novak, Girard plus more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Feb 2023 16:53:17 +0000

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 18: Toronto Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly (90) readies himself prior to the face-off in the first period during the NHL regular season game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 18, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the trade business is starting to pick up, so look to Ryan O’Reilly in Toronto and Dmitry Orlov heading to Boston, plus Anthony Beauvillier, Max Domi, Thomas Novak, Samuel Girard and more that could be worth adding to your fantasy squad.

#1 The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big splash ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring center Ryan O’Reilly from the St. Louis Blues. O’Reilly was having a rough year in St. Louis, with 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 40 games, but has a whole new opportunity in Toronto. He is centering the second line, between John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In his first three games with the Leafs, O’Reilly has five points, including a hat trick at Buffalo on Tuesday.

#2 Coming with O’Reilly in the trade to Toronto is Noel Acciari, a versatile forward who does offer some banger league fantasy value. Acciari has 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 57 games, so he is not a big scorer, but he has 181 hits, including 13 in three games for Toronto. Acciari’s 11 goals and 19 points is the most of any forward with more than 170 hits.

#3 Having traded already traded Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola before dealing O’Reilly and Acciari, the Blues are left with a thin lineup. That could provide an opportunity to find value from players that might not be top of mind when it comes to fantasy value. Brandon Saad returned from injury to skate on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Ivan Barbashev still has a role in the Blues’ top six, at least until he is moved out before the deadline. That could open the door for Josh Leivo or Sammy Blais to see a more significant role down the stretch.

#4 The Boston Bruins did not stand pat with their league-leading record, making a trade with the Washington Capitals on Thursday for defenseman Dmitry Orlov and right winger Garnet Hathaway. Orlov has decent fantasy value in deeper leagues, even though he has never scored more than 35 points in a season. He is playing more than 22 minutes per game this season, the second highest average of his career, and his 88 hits in 43 games is a higher rate than he has recorded in any of his previous 10 NHL seasons.

#5 Garnet Hathaway’s contributions are not that different from Acciari. Hathaway had 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 198 hits in 59 games for Washington. That style of play should endear him to the Bruins faithful and, playing for a strong Bruins team, might give Hathaway some banger league appeal. With Orlov departing, it looks like Trevor van Riemsdyk will see a bigger role with the Capitals, which includes time on the second power play unit. In his past eight games, van Riemsdyk has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal, so it would be too soon to recommend him in most leagues, but it is worth keeping an eye on his role.

#6 A new role with a new team can make all the difference. Just look at Anthony Beauvillier and what he has done with Vancouver since getting acquired in the Bo Horvat trade. Beauvillier has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in his first nine games for the Canucks. Skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and playing first unit power play is a better situation than what Beauvillier was typically afforded during his time with the New York Islanders.

#7 While the trade deadline spotlight in Chicago is focused on Patrick Kane, do not overlook Max Domi, who is on a tear of his own and could be moved. Domi has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He has 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 57 games, the third highest point total of his career, while playing a career high 18:14 per game.

#8 One of my favorite value players, Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner is still available in many leagues and in his past 13 games, Jenner has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 54 shots on goal. Add in 32 hits and a ton of faceoffs and Jenner can contribute to a lot of fantasy categories. Getting to center Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the Blue Jackets’ top line has its benefits.

#9 While the popular opinion is that the Colorado Avalanche will acquire a second line center before the trade deadline, they have been getting quality production in that spot from J.T. Compher. In his past 14 games, Compher has produced 14 points (3 G, 11 A) while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. The Avs are running Mikko Rantanen on Compher’s right wing and that is a prime opportunity for Compher, who has already hit a career high with 38 points (11 G, 27 A) in 55 games.

#10 Known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli becomes a more dangerous player when he is contributing offensively, too, and that is how it has been going lately. In his past seven games, Cirelli has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal.

#11 With Ryan Johansen suffering a season-ending injury, the Nashville Predators are getting thin down the middle of the ice. That does put second year pivot Thomas Novak into the spotlight, though. Novak has eight points (4 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak and played a career-high 18:39 in Thursday’s win at San Jose.

#12 There have been ups and downs for second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis, but he appears to be hitting his groove. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past three games and has recorded at least three shots on goal in six straight games. He has returned to skating on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, so Jarvis could be poised for a strong finish, though his long-term place on the top line could depend on what the Hurricanes do before the trade deadline.

#13 Although the San Jose Sharks are not headed to the postseason, veteran center Logan Couture is having another productive campaign. In his past nine games, Couture has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 59 games, giving him more than 0.80 points per game. The last time he finished a season with that per-game scoring rate was 2018-2019. It is fair to have some skepticism about Couture’s production, however, as his wingers are Michael Eyssimont and Alexander Barabanov, not exactly established premier scoring wingers, and there is a good chance that San Jose’s lineup will get depleted by trades before the deadline.

#14 With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar again out of the lineup, it is worth paying more attention to puck moving Avs blueliner Samuel Girard. In his past 10 games, the 24-year-old defenseman has 11 points (1 G, 10 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. He does most of his damage at even strength, too, with five of his 23 points this season coming on the power play.

#15 His track record leaves me wary, but Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Joonas Korpisalo has undeniably had a strong season and, with a contract that expires at season’s end, he could be a possible trade deadline addition for a team looking to stabilize its goaltending. Korpisalo has a .913 save percentage in 27 games, which ranks 16^th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 20 games. The lure for any contending teams is that Korpisalo was outstanding in his only postseason experience, posting a .941 save percentage in nine games during the 2019-2020 “bubble” Playoffs.

#16 Leading the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights have lost goaltenders Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to injuries, prompting the club to recall Laurent Brossoit from the American Hockey League. Brossoit has stopped 62 of 67 shots in two starts since getting pressed into action and he will have value as long as he is going to play. Over his career, he has been an adequate backup, albeit one that does not play very frequently. Can he handle a starter’s role, even in the short term for Vegas? It could be worth a waiver add to find out.

#17 The New York Islanders are in a dire situation now as they battle for a playoff spot. Centers Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are among the five forwards out of the lineup. That means Matt Martin is skating on the top line and Kyle Palmieri is on the first power play unit. In his past six games, Martin has five points (2 G, 3 A), 11 shots on goal and 21 hits. In deep leagues, that’s worth a look, even if it is on a short-term basis. After returning from an injury last month, Palmieri has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 32 shots and 21 hits in 13 games. Given his track record, and the fact that he gets more ice time, Palmieri is an even better addition for fantasy managers.

#18 Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer Travis Konecny is dealing with an upper-body injury and that means looking to young wingers who might get more of an opportunity. Owen Tippett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in the past 12 games. He played more than 20 minutes in Florida’s loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the first time since November that he played more than 20 minutes in a game.

#19 In 2023, the leaders in terms of individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 100 minutes): John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, Zach Hyman, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Michael Eyssimont, and Timo Meier. There are a lot of expected names there, but Jenner and Eyssimont stand out for the company they are keeping in this regard. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some surprises, too. Naturally, fourth-line forwards tend to be the ones generating the fewest expected goals, but there are others. Among the 401 forwards that have played at least 100 minutes since January 1, Mitch Marner ranks 378^th. Some other notables: Joel Farabee (373), Andrew Copp (359), and Sam Steel (353).

#20 The most dominant line in hockey probably comes as a surprise. According to Evolving Hockey, there are 59 lines that have played at least 200 minutes together during five-on-five play. The same line ranks first in Corsi For percentage, Expected Goals Percentage, and Goals For Percentage. That line is the Calgary Flames trio of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. In the past 18 games, Mangiapane has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 51 shots on goal, Backlund has 20 points (6 G, 14 A) and 63 shots on goal, and Coleman has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 50 shots on goal.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CALGARY FLAMES – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 21:53:02 +0000

CALGARY, AB - MAY 20: Calgary Flames Goalie Jacob Markstrom (25) stretches in his crease during the third period of game 2 of the second round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Calgary Flames and the Edmonton Oilers on May 20, 2022, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jonathan Huberdeau

Calgary made the most out of a bad situation by acquiring Huberdeau as part of the Tkachuk trade, replacing some of the elite talent they lost in the summer. Huberdeau is about as close to a Johnny Gaudreau replacement as they could find. Teetering in “great but not elite” territory for most of his career, the winger shattered that mold the last two years, finishing third in the league in points last season and solidifying himself as one of the league’s top playmakers. After turning names like Alex Wennberg, Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair into bonafide top sixers in Florida, doing the same with Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli should be very easy for him. There are some new challenges for Huberdeau in Calgary, it’s his first time as “the guy” and he will be the main focus for every team now that Barkov isn’t on the main top line. Calgary’s going to build their entire team around him with a supporting cast that isn’t as deep as it was in Florida. It’s a chance for him to prove that he belongs in the conversation with the Matthews and MacKinnon’s of the world instead of just a guy who had a few great years. He’s not a difficult guy to build around, as he can create offense in all situations, including the penalty kill, and doesn’t need a special linemate to take advantage of his skillset. The concern is that his level of play last year was absurd even for his standards and tough for even the best players to repeat. It will be interesting to see where he levels out at.

Nazem Kadri

The stars aligned for Kadri in a contract year. He had an unbelievable season, scoring at a 100-point pace and capped it off with a great playoff run enroute to his first Stanley Cup. Due for a significant pay raise that was going to be too rich for the Avs, he settled on a new home in Calgary, signing a seven-year contract. He was a perfect fit in Colorado, matching the speed and intensity that the rest of the team played with, and everything just seemed to break right last year. He can play the north-south game, forecheck hard and developed some great chemistry with their talented defensemen. Translating this to a new team will be interesting. Kadri plays the type of game that can fit into any system and while he might not be an 87-point player, he should give Calgary’s second line a solid floor. He plays with a lot of speed and his passing has come a long way since his days in Toronto. Sliding in between Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman makes a lot of sense on paper, as all three can play that high-intensity game Kadri brings but will they score enough to justify Kadri’s $7 mil. cap hit? It’s a skill downgrade from what he had in Andre Burakovsky and Val Nichushkin, but not to the point where you’d expect Kadri to become a 30-40 player who you can’t trust in bad matchups. As long as Kadri’s legs stay healthy, he’s going to be a player who can tilt the ice to some degree and gives the Flames some stability with a possible scoring upside.

Elias Lindholm

Elias Lindholm was living his best life centering Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, playing the high forward role perfectly enroute to a 42-goal season. The young Swede has been a lethal passing target for Gaudreau, improving as a goal-scorer every year and getting plenty of chances to show the skill that made him a top-five draft pick. The Flames top line was so dominant last year that it was easy for Lindholm to find soft spots in the defense, with Gaudreau doing most of the puck-handling and Tkachuk doing the work along the boards. Lindholm’s always thought the game well and him applying that to the offensive side of the game made Calgary’s top line one of the best in hockey. It will be interesting how he gels with Jonathan Huberdeau, who brings some Gaudreau-like qualities to the table and can set Lindholm up for plenty of scoring chances. Huberdeau usually has to turn players into great finishers rather than being paired with one himself, which makes him and Lindholm being matched together very exiting on paper. Some regression should be expected, as it was such a three-way street on Calgary’s top line last year that you’re going to see a drop-off while three new players learn to work together. That said, Lindholm is only a year removed from having a productive season away from Calgary’s top line and his shot is always a threat regardless of who is setting him up. It just might not be the same magic he had with Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

Mikael Backlund

A mainstay on Calgary’s second line for nine years now, Backlund is a model of consistency for Calgary. His skating and tenacious playing style make his line a tough matchup even if they don’t always get rewarded for it on the scoresheet. Last year was business as usual for them, tilting the ice most nights with newcomer Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane giving Backlund some great speed on the wings. They were one of the more productive shutdown lines in hockey early in the season, with Backlund doing most of the work with getting the puck out of the zone and giving Mangiapane some breakaway opportunities. They played like every shift was a penalty kill where they were pushing for rush chances. It both helped and hurt Backlund because while his line was great, his own boxcar stats took a hit. He posted his lowest point total in a full season since 2014 and has scored on less than 10% of his shots for the past two years now. It’s a by-product of his role and his own limitations offensively, being more of a straight-line player than someone who will look for an extra pass. It’s something the Flames will have to monitor but it’s not their primary concern if his line keeps winning their matchups.

Tyler Toffoli

One week into his Calgary tenure, Toffoli looked like one of the best mid-season trades of the year. He got off to a hot start with five goals in his first eight games as a Flame and followed it by scoring only six more in his next 29 games. It doesn’t sound that bad, but when you consider that only four of his 11 goals with the Flames came at five-on-five and three of his goals were empty netters, he had a very frustrating stint in Calgary. This includes a stretch in the playoffs where he was woefully snake-bitten with two goals in 12 games. It’s not that surprising, all scorers are streaky and Toffoli isn’t exactly Steven Stamkos in terms of finishing. What was disappointing was how much he struggled to fit in with the Flames system. He would create chances, but one-dimensional in that he could only do it off the rush, which is a problem when your center is Sean Monahan and you’re expected to do the bulk of the work with carrying and recovering the puck. Not even a trip to Mikael Backlund’s wing could get him going, as he was one of a few players on Calgary who posted a negative on-ice goal and scoring chance differential, which says a lot when you consider how good Calgary was as a team. The silver lining for Calgary being that Toffoli was still generating chances on his own and not converting as much as he can. Play-driving is a concern because he’s not great at playing with speed, but he will get a chance to start fresh with Lindholm’s right wing spot up for grabs.

Andrew Mangiapane

Watch the highlights of Mangiapane’s 30-goal season and you’ll notice that he could probably read the goaltender’s mask art on all of them. He scored at every level he played at and carried it over to the NHL, with ice-time being the only thing keeping him from having a true “breakout” season. That changed this year, as he made the jump to the top-six and was a terror for teams with poor net-front defense. It was easy to see why he was leading the league in shooting percentage, with most of his goals coming off breakaways, deflections and rebounds in front of the net. Mangiapane is also one of the better play-drivers in the league, with his speed an uncanny ability to beat defenders to the inside making Calgary’s second line a matchup nightmare for other teams. The goal-scoring outburst was just a bonus when you factor in everything else he brings to the table. He could be in the mix for a spot on the top line, as he brings some similar qualities to Tkachuk with how well he plays in front of the net. Making the jump to a top-line player will be important for Calgary to repeat their success from last year. He might not get the same number of lay-up goals, but he should continue to be a key driver of whatever line Darryl Sutter puts him on.

Dillon Dube

Possessing good wheels and a great shot, Dube finally started to put some of it together in what was his fourth NHL season, scoring a career high 18 goals. He brought a quick-strike threat to the Flames third line with Sean Monahan and Milan Lucic, quarterbacking most of the offense on this unit. It played to his strengths in a way, as he’s a bit of a puck-hog and it makes the Flames play at a quicker pace. The drawback was that sometimes the rest of the line couldn’t keep up with him, which led to a lot of one-and-done chances and mediocre on-ice metrics for a group. They were a neutral in terms of goal differential and didn’t tilt the ice as much as much as you’d want a depth group with weaker matchups to do. Dube is kind of an all-or-nothing type of player. With the puck he uses his speed well to create chances and get a decent looks off the rush. Recovering pucks, forechecking and looking for the extra play, however, were a different story. This is why his line went through prolonged scoring droughts despite Dube himself having a decent season goal-scoring wise. That said, he has settled into a nice role as a middle-six winger and while the Flames will be looking for more offense 80+ goals to replace, they have some other options they can turn to before Dube.

Blake Coleman

The Flames got what they expected out of Coleman in the first season of his six-year contract. An excellent forechecker and support player on breakouts, he was a key cog on the second line with Mikael Backlund. His speed and general aggressive playing style made the move to Calgary an easy transition for him. Goal-scoring was a secondary concern because his line created so much in volume and his line always drove play for Calgary. Same goes for his limited puck skills, namely with making plays in the offensive zone. While Coleman is good at connecting the dots with getting the puck up ice and exiting the zone, making east-west plays isn’t exactly in his arsenal and he’s more likely to take the puck to the net or try to score from distance once he gets any space. It’s what makes him a very useful player for Calgary, but not so much in fantasy pools, as he usually piles up more penalty minutes and hits than assists. An audition on the top line with Huberdeau is possible. His speed and sandpaper would add a different element, but he is so effective in a checking role with Backlund that Calgary might not want to mess with something that isn’t broken. He is also one of the better penalty killers in the league and could see some extra offense there with how often he tries to attack shorthanded.

DEFENSE

Mackenzie Weegar

A strong Calgary defense corps got even better with the addition of Mackenzie Weegar. He did a lot of learning on the job in Florida, working his way up the depth chart and improving as he got more responsibility. It all culminated over the past two years when Aaron Ekblad missed significant time with injuries, giving Weegar the reins to the Florida blue line. He passed the test with flying colors, adding more wrinkles to his game and having two stellar years offensively. He doesn’t have a lot of traits that stick out in highlight reels, he’s just very good at everything and thinks the game at a high level, which makes up for his small-ish frame. Even with Ekblad out of the lineup, Weegar was responsible for Florida’s excellent transition game, starting most of their breakouts with good retrievals and avoiding turnovers. He wasn’t shy about joining the rush or taking risks in the offensive zone either, a part of his game that has taken huge steps since his rookie year. The more work you throw at him, the better he plays. Which can result in him trying to do too much and turning the puck over at times, but the good outweighs the bad with him. With the landscape changing in Calgary, it will be interesting to see where Weegar slides in. He can play both sides, is a better defender than Andersson but not the reliable bedrock Chris Tanev is on the right side. Weegar’s versatility makes him such a valuable player, so it will be interesting to see where he fits in with so many good veteran defensemen in the mix.

Noah Hanifin

Noah Hanifin’s skillset and results couldn’t be more different. On paper, he should be the best player on Calgary’s defense corps. He’s a big, effortless skater who can go coast-to-coast without breaking a sweat. He’s aggressive with how he defends his own blue line and has the offensive instincts to be a great top-pair guy. For most of his career, Hanifin was just a very good second-pair defender who brought a stabilizing presence but nothing game-breaking. The tides started to turn this year as he formed a great second-pair with Rasmus Andersson. He set a career high in points, most coming from secondary assists, looked closer to the free-wheeling player he was in Carolina with how often he would pinch in to create better chances. His improvements on the defensive side of the game were very encouraging. The turnovers weren’t happening as often and he looked more composed with taking risks, knowing when to challenge forwards while defending entries and when to back off. It was a reminder of how good he can be when he is on his game, which was looking like every night instead of once every couple of weeks. Then the playoffs happened, where Hanifin was on the ice for 14 goals against at five-on-five in only 12 games. Sometimes that happens and Connor McDavid will make a lot of good players look bad. Aside from that, it was a successful year for the former BC Eagle with some good development in the offensive side of the game.

Rasmus Andersson

As Calgary’s team defense goes so does Rasmus Andersson. Coming off a tough year, he looked a little more comfortable in a top-four role. He was reunited with Noah Hanifin and played a little more within his means. He is at his best when he is leading the rush and using his skating to create, which we didn’t see much of when he was playing a tough-minute role. Calgary was a better team in general last year, so Andersson got to be up in the play a little more and use some of his great skilset. He is the best playmaker on the Flames blue-line, both in transition and with threading the needle to a forward in the offensive zone. It made him and Hanifin a nice backstop to the Flames top line and the ridiculous number of chances they were creating every night. It was also a reminder that a defenseman’s results can depend on the situation he’s in more than his ability. Andersson was out of his depth in a shutdown role the previous year and looked like a completely different player once Calgary’s forwards improved. It makes it tough to project him next year, as he’s not the most assertive player with killing plays in the defensive zone and his strengths are more when the play is heading north. His great hands and vision are always going to keep his ceiling relatively high, though.

Oliver Kylington

Spending most of 2020-21 on the taxi squad, Kylington got a fresh start in Calgary as Chris Tanev’s partner. While he didn’t play the minutes as some of the other top guys, he had a key role with facilitating the Flames transition game. He can skate his way out of danger very easily and play at the pace required to keep up with Gaudreau. It was a nice addition to a defense corps that was already pretty strong and a great complement to Tanev’s more defensive presence. Kylington has an explosive first stride and is always looking to jump or move the play north. Even in a high-leverage role, he played the same way he did in the minors and established himself as a solid NHLer. He might return to more of a depth role this year, as he lost ice-time to bigger defensemen like Gudbranson and Zadorov in the playoffs and it’s hard to see him beating out Weegar for a top-four spot. The forwards in front of him will also change because presumably moving away from Tanev means less minutes with the Backlund line and the team could play less on the rush in general with Gaudreau departing. Kylington should be able to crush third-pair minutes, but there’s going to be a cap on point-production due to ice-time and playing behind depth lines. It will also be interesting to see if he can gel with an AHL call-up as well as he did with Tanev.

GOALTENDING

Jacob Markström

It took him a moment to get going in Calgary – but last season, it became fairly clear that Jacob Markström had been a good gamble for the Flames when they signed him during the 2020 free agency period. He was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL last year, finishing second in Vezina voting and posting the best numbers of his entire career – not just in save percentage, but in almost every discernible category. He elevated his consistency levels, topping the .600 quality start percentage for the first time in his 12-year NHL career, and his whopping nine shutouts bested the league entirely.

There’s always a bit of worry that a goaltender on the wrong side of 30 will see some regression when they post career highs, especially when playing for a more traditional coach who doesn’t spend much time cultivating a tandem culture. That was certainly the case for Markström under head coach Darryl Sutter, who rode his starter for 63 games during the 2021-22 season – a sharp uptick after seeing the Swedish netminder operate in a completely even split in each of his two seasons prior. But the way that Markström plays suits a Darryl Sutter style, which values structure and a defense-first system over all else, and that complementary element to Markström’s game combines with an easier workload behind a Sutter system to make this less of a concern than it might be elsewhere. And given some of the workload numbers witnessed in LA back when Sutter controlled the bench during Jonathan Quick’s earlier career years, this deployment of Markström is a far more progressive approach than some might have worried they’d see from Sutter – suggesting that even an old coach can learn new tricks and Markström should find himself better able to rely upon relief should he need it. Keep an eye on how his recovery game looks as the season progresses, though; while Markström’s game tends to rely upon offensive reads and patience on his skates more than a lot of movement from his knees, he does have a tendency to freeze up sometimes when struggling and leave holes open for long enough to give snipers extra space to work with. He’s cleaned up some of his decision-making skills in the last few years, particularly last year, and his angles in the blue paint look sharper than ever. But Calgary’s window is closing fast, and they lost some valuable offense during the off-season. Markström can’t afford to take much of a step back, and if fatigue starts to set in things could snowball quickly.

Projected starts: 55-60

Dan Vladar

Boston likely doesn’t regret pulling the trigger on their move to send prospect Dan Vladar to the Calgary Flames in the summer of 2021, particularly given the success that Jeremy Swayman met with last year. But for Calgary, the move seems to be working out perfectly as well. Vladar didn’t post Calder-worthy numbers, and he certainly paled in comparison to starter Jacob Markström’s Vezina-worthy performance. But on a team that likely wasn’t going to be deploying a true tandem under head coach Darryl Sutter, Vladar was exactly what the team needed him to be – a competent backup who didn’t wow the crowds, but performanced consistently just above average and with enough reliable technique to give his team a routine chance to win the games he played in.

Vladar’s game still lacks some of the finesse and patience he’ll need to reach a more consistently elite level, but he took tremendous strides last season from a control standpoint in the blue paint. The Flames saw the 24-year-old goaltender pull his game deeper and narrow his stance more, tucking his limbs closer into his body and closing some of the gaps he had shown in coverage in years prior. He still struggles to read oncoming offensive plays with enough confidence to hold his stance, which leaves him second-guessing his positioning just enough to keep him making adjustments until the puck has already left his opponent’s stick. He’ll need to clean that up this year to prevent teams from goading him out of position, which can create a snowball effect that pushes young goaltender development back at the NHL level. Luckily, though, he already showed improvements in that area this past year; while he still made constant minute adjustments to his stance and struggled to bait shooters into coming to him, he avoided oversliding and forcing himself to recover back into saves nearly as much as he did when he first hit North America. That makes it easy to have faith that he’ll continue to improve next year, especially if Markström continues to be Calgary’s clear number one.

Projected starts: 20-25

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: CALGARY VS. DALLAS – Similar style of play, but Flames depth will be a challenge for Dallas

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 01 May 2022 20:21:31 +0000

CALGARY, AB - APRIL 21: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) tries to take a shot as Calgary Flames Center Elias Lindholm (28) backchecks during the third period of an NHL game where the Calgary Flames hosted the Dallas Stars on April 21, 2022, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Calgary/Dallas

It’s not often a wild card matchup features two of the best lines in hockey going head-to-head. Johnny Gaudreau has been a Hart candidate all season, sleepwalking his way to 115-point season. It’s the only line that features three 40 goal scorers and have been a wrecking force since October. In the other corner, Jason Robertson has built a stealth Hart Trophy case for himself, dragging the Stars into a playoff spot in the second half of the season and providing an instant spark whenever he’s on the ice.

Dallas’ run to the post-season was remarkable, beating out a heavily favored team to make the dance, but it’s going to take a gargantuan effort by their top line or a revival from one of Tyler Seguin or Jamie Benn for them to pull off this upset. At least that’s the way this series looks on paper. Calgary is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at five-on-five and even when factoring in their outstanding top line, Dallas is a bottom-three team in goal-scoring. Even in the last two months of the season, the Stars are averaging 2.27 goals per 60 minutes, one below the Columbus Blue Jackets. Compare that to Calgary average 3.06 goals per 60 minutes and this looks like a mismatch. There are a lot of things that had to go right for Dallas to get to this point, but this is a 2v7 matchup for a reason.

If there’s anything that can instill some hope in Stars fans, it’s the run they went on in the bubble and what they can do to repeat that. Calgary is a better team now with a better head coach, but Dallas has most of the pieces from that run along with a shiny new toy in Robertson. Dallas isn’t a high-octane team, but what they do well is defend. Specially the type of defending that turns tie games into a coinflip where you just need a few things to go right, and you’re set. They got that by-committee in the bubble with a variety of different players stepping up. This year, they’re relying more on their top line, which might be able to do the same thing, but they have a very daunting task ahead of them, keeping one of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk off the scoreboard.

Gaudreau’s Playoff Struggles

Taking a different approach to this series, we’re going to look at how goals were scored in last year’s playoffs and see if there’s anything we can learn from Gaudreau’s playoff struggles with it. Gaudreau had a decent seven points in 10 games in the bubble but was held scoreless in Calgary’s previous two first round losses. His two goals in the bubble loss to Dallas both coming on the power play. We all hear how playoff hockey is a different beast than the regular season. Teams are more dialed in; they play with more of an edge and players like Gaudreau aren’t going to get a free pass to do whatever they want with the puck on the ice like they might during a game in the middle of February.

Looking at all the games tracked in the All Three Zones Project from last year’s playoffs, we can see the types of shots, passing plays and playing situations that lead to the most goals during five-on-five play. Are rush goals hard to come by in the playoffs? Do you need to be good on the forecheck and is that bad for a skilled player like Gaudreau who relies more on speed and shiftiness rather than brute strength to create chances?

In terms of creating off the rush vs. the forecheck, there’s not really any major difference between how often goals are scored off the rush vs. in-zone offense. It doesn’t really present a problem for a team like Calgary either, as they play a lot on both. Even Gaudreau’s line has Matthew Tkachuk on it, so they have enough guys who can play whatever game you throw at them. Shots off the rush don’t exactly present a huge advantage to the other two styles in terms of shot quality, though. So that’s a plus for Calgary.

Then there’s the types of shots, which is a little more interesting.

So, most goals in last year’s playoffs were off rebounds, point shots, screened shots, odd-man rushes and deflections. The high danger plays are still high danger, but they happen less often. It makes sense. Point shots are what you do when there’s no space for the pretty plays and you’re hoping to get enough space up there or pray that it hits something and goes in. That’s probably where the struggles happen for Gaudreau. You can play off the rush, sure but the middle of the ice for those pretty passing plays won’t be open and good luck getting a break long enough to start a 3-on-2 rush. One-timer goals happening less frequently also stings because teeing off on those is one of Elias Lindholm’s best strengths.

As much as we hate to admit it, ugly hockey usually gets you goals in the playoffs and that’s where the Flames have to be better this year. They’re more equipped to deal with it. Their blue line can all get the puck through traffic and getting to the net is in the Tkachuk brothers’ DNA. Nobody with the storied history of deflecting pucks like Joe Pavelski, but your Blake Colemans and Andrew Mangiapanes of the world can play that style. Mangiapane being one of the best in the NHL at rebound chances and deflections.

Of course, this is where the Stars can make hay if they keep the games close enough. Jake Oettinger is good enough to not let it happen, but he’s still young and going up against the league leaders in shutouts, Jacob Markstrom. Calgary is also playing Sutter Hockey at its finest, grinding most of their games out but with the Gaudreau line having a historic season to back it up. They play a more similar style to the Stars despite scoring so much more. They let their top line do their thing and everyone else goes into clampdown mode for the rest of the game.

It’s a formula that’s worked for other teams, so Calgary is at another advantage even if Gaudreau’s struggles continue. The one thing that would scare me is that Jason Robertson’s line has more of an advantage in how the goals are scored because they aren’t as dependent on odd-man rushes for their goals. They play the forechecking style better anyway, as most of their goals are off a dump-in or a long in-zone shift. Which is what could make this series more interesting.

Miro The Hero

The last time Dallas was in the playoffs, the world got to see just how damn good Miro Heiskanen is. The offense hasn’t come around like most hoped, but he can get the puck out of harm’s way seamlessly and do so many things for you. He has the skating to keep up with the most skilled forwards in the league and incredible endurance. All that is missing is the offense, which he still creates but not as much as what he could potentially do with better finishing around him. We saw a glimpse of it in the bubble where he was the best defenseman on the ice in a series that featured Victor Hedman.

If Dallas gets that version of Miro, it could be a game changer depending on how much Dallas’ other pairs hold their ground against the Tyler Toffoli and Mikael Backlund. It will be fun to watch him shadow Gaudreau on those long cycle shifts. Anyone who loves great skating should love this series for that alone. Heiskanen can beat a few guys coming out of the zone, so his breakouts might frustrate Calgary’s top line, if anything.

Prediction:

Calgary in 5

The Flames can just play the Stars brand of hockey better than Dallas can now. Calgary’s top line obviously needs to produce to get off the shneid, but they’re also deep enough to keep up with the Stars depth lines. Robertson’s line and the Stars general opportunistic play will win them a game or two, though.

Numbers At Work: Canes keep winning, Dueling Connors, Pettersson’s struggles

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 23 Nov 2021 22:24:43 +0000

Team of the Week: Carolina

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 21:Frederik Andersen (31) of the Carolina Hurricanes makes the save during the second period of the NHL game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Montreal Canadiens on October 21, 2021, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

The Carolina Hurricanes have been on an incredible run to start the year and it continued last week on their West Coast trip where one thing became obvious: they are terrible at losing hockey games. Carolina hasn’t had a truly dominant performance this month. They’ve blown a lead in each of their last four games and found a way to win all of them in regulation, Saturday’s win over the Kings being a great example. Both teams traded goals for two periods until Martin Necas scored late in the second period, which ended up being the game winner. With 11 players sitting at three goals or more, the Canes have had a different line step up for them every night and it’s been fun to watch them defy the odds.

That has been the theme for them early on because even though they’re coming off a great season, they let a lot of talent walk out the door this summer. Not many teams can absorb losing a defenseman like Dougie Hamilton for nothing. He did so much to change the complexion of this roster and take them to the next level that they weren’t going to replace him one-for-one. What they can do, however, is attempt to replace him by committee. Enter Ethan Bear, a small but underrated defenseman who they acquired in a trade with the Oilers.

Bear has been handling most of the minutes alongside Jaccob Slavin on Carolina’s top pair along with some heavy penalty killing duty and replaces some of the subtle qualities Hamilton brought to the table. The most important of which is efficiently getting the puck out of the zone. A pillar of how the Hurricanes want to play is their forecheck and playing on the attack. Bear’s strength on breakouts helps them with this because even if he isn’t the one getting the puck out of the zone, he is usually the first one back to retrieve the puck and help the forwards move the play forward. This goes both ways because it helps Carolina push for offense when they need to and defend leads when all they need is a simple clear.

This isn’t the full season (11 Carolina games), but it’s an enough sample to get a picture. The y-axis shows the workload each defenseman has with retrieving loose pucks in the defensive zones (whether that’s off dump-ins or general loose pucks) and the x-axis shows how often their retrievals led to a successful zone exit (can be with or without possession). Bear and Slavin see the biggest workload here and they’ve done an excellent job of either getting the puck out of harm’s way or starting a breakout.

Bear put on a clinic in this department in Carolina’s 3-2 win over Vegas last week, successfully advancing the puck six times on nine retrievals while having six exits with possessions on his own.

Just an excellent display of the modern style of defending where being strong on your skates, taking hits to make plays and efficiently moving the puck is what yields great results, which the Canes have gotten out of their top pair so far. It’s an interesting dynamic because Carolina’s replaced Hamilton with three players at lower costs. You have Tony DeAngelo replacing him in the offensive zone, Ian Cole replacing his physical play in the defensive zone and Ethan Bear replacing him in the transition game. It’s tough to say how sustainable it is because none of these players are stars, but they complement Carolina’s two rocks in Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin to give them a great top-four that gets things done by-committee.

The last point is Carolina’s strength, winning by-committee. If you go down their roster there aren’t many players who look out of their depth. They aren’t loaded with stars, but they have 12 forwards who will win their shifts more times than not and six defensemen who they can rotate on a situational basis. It’s made them tough to matchup with, especially with so many teams struggling with injuries early on in the year. It also helps that their newly form top line can turn games around for them at any given moment.

Carolina’s newly formed top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and rookie Seth Jarvis has only been together for a few games, but in about 62 minutes at 5v5, they are posting an Expected Goals percentage of 53.4% and have produced five goals while only giving up two. Aho and Svechnikov have been linemates before and while they both complement each other well, Jarvis gives them a volume shooter who can actually finish. The youngster has only nine games to his credit, but he has shown a great nose for the net and an uncanny ability to retrieve loose pucks in the slot, which will do wonders for you with all the open space Carolina’s stars will open up. Aho’s such a patient and cerebral player with the puck and Svechnikov has shined as playmaker the last couple of years, so Jarvis’ shoot-first mentality is a perfect fit for how these two are playing. Time will tell if they stay linemates long-term, but the rookie’s had a fantastic start to his career.

I love this shift in particular because you get a look at how strong Carolina’s top line is on the forecheck and how it can lead to rush opportunities on the regroup. You have what looks like a slow, plodding shift in the offensive zone that isn’t going to lead to much except perimeter shots. Which is fine, but not ideal for your top line. However, it’s important because the Canes forwards don’t back off while the Kings are trying to breakout. The two defensemen maintain a strong gap along the wall to keep the Kings hemmed in and take a look at the forward applying the main pressure on the breakout, it’s 24 Seth Jarvis. He does enough to force a telegraphed pass to the middle, which Aho picks off and Jarvis gets a golden chance in the slot as the F3 with Svechnikov there in support. It’s fantastic teamwork for these three and why you’ll likely see Jarvis on the team for the entire year.

Finally, we have to talk about Frederik Andersen. The most controversial move Carolina made in the off-season was trading goaltender and Calder nominee Alex Nedeljkovic and replacing him with a veteran in Andersen (and Antti Raanta). So far, that gamble has paid off. Carolina would still be sitting well without superhuman goaltending, but Andersen’s .937 save percentage has separated them from the pack. Not every team is going to be firing on all cylinders every game and Andersen has been there to clean up some of Carolina’s messes when they’ve had a bad period or two. He has started all but three of their games and has been arguably their MVP to start the year, which is saying a lot when you consider how good the rest of the team is.

It will be interesting to see where this team is when they hit a rut, because they’ve done an excellent job of pulling themselves together in a lot of games that could have gone either way this year. It speaks volumes to the depth of this roster and the coaching job from Rod Brind’Amour’s staff.

Freddy Andersen, what happens when this normalizes?

Three Microstat Stars

Andrew Mangiapane vs. Buffalo

The Flames winger is making the graduation from analytics darling to household name, scoring 15 goals in 19 games to start the year. Those who followed Calgary knew of Mangiapane’s talent and his play-driving skills, but there’s maybe a handful of people in the world who expected this kind of production from him. Some if it is flukey, there aren’t any players good enough to score on over 30% of their shots like he is right now, but if you watch him you can see why he’s converting at such a high rate. He creates a lot of chances through his speed and anticipating where the play is going rather than where the puck is. This was on full display in Calgary’s 5-0 win over the Sabres where Mangiapane recorded 9 shots, 6 scoring chances, and 7 controlled zone entries. Just a solid all-around player who is finally getting his due on the scoresheet.

Kyle Connor vs. Edmonton

In the battle of the Connors, Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor got it done at both ends of the rink, contributing to 13 of Winnipeg’s shots, 6 of their scoring chances and producing 12 controlled zone entries and exits, helping the Jets attack off the rush and go blow for blow with the Oilers high powered offense. There’s been a little more to his game this year than just the quick-strike offense, as him and Pierre-luc Dubois have been Winnipeg’s two best players to start the year and one of the better duos in the league.

Leon Draisaitl vs. Winnipeg

In an effort to not name McDavid every week, we’re going to give some love to his running mate this week, as he had another excellent game in the Oilers rubber match against the Jets. Draisaitl contributed to 12 of the Oilers five-on-five shots and six of their scoring chances while also producing three scoring chances off zone entries. Usually a selective shooter, Draisaitl was a little more assertive in this game, driving the net and using his feet to create offense instead of waiting for a one-timer. There are few players in the league who can generate instant offense like him, and this was just another night at the office.

What’s Wrong with: Elias Pettersson

There is a lot more wrong with Vancouver than just Elias Pettersson not producing, but the young star is currently stuck on 10 points in 19 games, only two of which coming at five-on-five. The word “struggling” doesn’t even begin to describe this. Pettersson is a tough guy to evaluate when the points aren’t coming because he’s a player who will convert on a high percentage of his chances rather than pile up a bunch of microstats. That said, in his best seasons, the Canucks usually run their offense through him and Quinn Hughes at the left point. What makes Pettersson special is how efficient he is with shooting and creating high danger chances out of nothing. So far, he hasn’t produced much of anything.

What this shows here is how much offense each player produces by either shooting or creating a shot for a teammate. Right now, Pettersson is doing neither. Some of this might relate to the wrist injury that kept him out for most of last season and missing training camp, but special players can usually make an impact regardless. It’s hard to imagine that one of the league’s most unique players would just forget how to play hockey over the course of the season, so we should expect this to even out. That said, when looking at some of Pettersson’s shifts, you can see some of the issues with him and how the Canucks play.

There are a few things to point out with Vancouver’s style of play here. First is that they defer to their defense for shots more than most teams. This doesn’t mean they always go to the point, but they want to play a hard, forechecking style that wears teams down. That means lots of shots from the point, forwards screening the goalie and retrieving the puck. Pettersson does a good job to gain possession and help this, but it kind of puts his skillset to waste because he’s stuck chasing the play and making simple passes instead of looking for the next best play. It doesn’t help that Vancouver’s forwards make a bee-line straight to the net to screen the net, making it easier for defensemen to key-in on what they’re trying to do because there’s no motion or deception.

It’s a playing style that has worked for a lot of teams, but Pettersson’s ceiling is probably limited if he’s stuck in a system where the defensemen are controlling all the offense. Just look at the initial zone entry in the first clip. Pettersson’s gets a break, but there’s no support or lane to the net, so he has to rim it around the boards to setup a cycle instead of making a play to the net. Some of this is going to normalize over the course of the season, but it’s tough to say that the Canucks are doing their star any favors with how they’re playing or the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

Rookie Watch: Dawson Mercer

It’s been tough to find good finishers in New Jersey, which makes Dawson Mercer very easy to notice. The 20-year-old has quickly found his way to a top-six goal with the Devils, doing an excellent job alongside Andreas Johnsson and Jesper Bratt, getting between the circles to create high danger chances while those two work the puck along the perimeter and creating some opportunities for himself off the rush.

It’s still early and all, but there’s a strong chance he can sustain this level of play and maybe even see more of a reward for it on the scoresheet than 12 points in 16 games (which is still pretty darn good).

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.