Andy Welinski – McKeen's Hockey

Anaheim Ducks Prospect System Overview

McKeen's Hockey — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:35:05 +0000

The Anaheim Ducks have qualified for the postseason nine times out of the last 11 seasons, and for seven consecutive campaigns. Over the past four seasons, they have advanced to the Western Conference Final twice. The point being, the Ducks almost never have a high first-round selection, with only two top-ten picks (Hampus Lindholm at sixth in 2012 and Nick Ritchie at tenth in 2014) since 2005.

So obviously, for a perennial contender like the Ducks, the most important thing they can do to remain relevant and get a constant influx of youthful depth in the NHL is scout and pick well in the later rounds of the draft. Lucky for fans in Orange County, the orange and black have been stellar in finding talent late into the draft.

From the fourth round on, they've nabbed Troy Terry, Josh Manson, Ondrej Kase, and Sami Vatanen (since traded for Adam Henrique) in the past decade. Of course, there's luck involved in cashing out on late-round steals, but this is a trend with way too much convincing evidence to write it off as pure fortune. Having talented youngsters coming in and helping to extend the dwindling prime of established superstars Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry will pay dividends in prolonging Anaheim's competitive window.

They've done it with defense -- snagging skilled d-men like Lindholm, Cam Fowler, and Brandon Montour -- but now the focus evidently has turned to the forwards. The top five prospects on this list, as well as eight of the top ten, play up the ice, including dynamic first-rounders like Sam Steel. Tacking forwards onto the currently-assembled NHL roster is essential, as the Ducks finished 16th -- last amongst postseason teams -- in goals for in 2017-18.

With defense locked down and forwards on the rise, goaltending should be a concern. They have two goaltenders in the top 20, both are under 20 years old, with neither sitting in a top ten position. However, with the eight-year extension of borderline elite starting goaltender John Gibson, they have time to wait. Their only worry right now is the one they are addressing, and with the Ducks' adept ability to produce quality forwards through their AHL affiliate in San Diego, all will work out.

Sam Steel

1 Sam Steel, C (30th overall, 2016. Last year: 1st) One the most complete prospects in the game, Steel's foray into the professional hockey ranks will begin this year, be it with Anaheim or with AHL San Diego. Steel's 2017-18 campaign was abridged due to injuries, but the playmaking center paced all WHL players in points the year prior with 131. The former first-round selection has unreal rink senses and creativity and can be dangerous with and without the puck thanks to his play-reading smarts and his positioning. He's a stellar skater with plus acceleration and has developed his shot into a formidable scoring option. All that needs to improve are his size and strength. With question marks floating around the health of Ryan Kesler, Steel could see top-nine minutes with the Ducks right out of training camp.

2 Isac Lundestrom, C (23rd overall, 2018. Last year: IE) A creative two-way player with pro-level rink discipline, Lundestrom was one of just eight centers selected in the first round of June's entry draft and might be the most mature and smart of them all. Having already completed two seasons in the SHL, the 18-year-old is very responsible with the puck and has great timing down already. Lundestrom has a knack for finding open passing lanes and exposing poor positional play from the opposition and has a strong frame that makes his play on the puck better. He isn't a forceful offensive player, and his issue with compiling points (just 15 in 42 games in 2017-18) is due to a lack of assertiveness; he's imaginative with the puck and has soft hands but is too concerned with defensive efforts to give it his all in the o-zone.

3 Troy Terry, RW (148th overall, 2015. Last year: 5th) Known for his shootout heroics on the World Junior stage, Troy Terry's ridiculously quick hands and innovation with the puck on his stick has translated well in other facets of the game. The former NCAA champion with Denver uses his phenomenal puck-handling to get past defenders and his patient but lethal shooting ability to snipe pucks past fooled goaltenders. His positioning is solid, and his two-way game has been steadily improving over time. Leaving the college ranks before his senior year, the 20-year-old signed his entry-level deal with Anaheim and will likely begin the season with San Diego. All he needs to do is get stronger and grow into his 6-1" frame, but much like Ondrej Kase, the Ducks have found themselves a steal of a late-round winger.

4 Maxime Comtois, LW (50th overall, 2017. Last year: 7th) Projected as a first-round pick back in 2017, the QMJHL star dropped to the Ducks at 50th overall and has worked on rounding out his game with Victoriaville since his draft season. Always a strong scoring threat, Comtois posted a team-high 85 points this season while boasting a better defensive game than ever. He plays a very physical game in the offensive zone and out and leverages that size and grit to his advantage to generate scoring opportunities for his team with strong possession-play and great balance. He's a decent skater, has good hands, and is exceptional in terms of positional play. Whether his scoring touch will translate to the NHL is the only question left to answer, as the remainder of his game is refined and mature.

Benoit Olivier-Groulx

5 Benoit-Olivier Groulx, C (54th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) With a long-time hockey head coach for a father, Benoit-Olivier Groulx comes with the hockey sense and coachability you might expect. Add that to his quality physical game, his strong and accurate wrist shot, and his adaptability into a variety of roles and game styles, and you have a quality second-round pick. The Ducks nabbed the center from Halifax (where he was formerly the number-one pick in the QMJHL draft) at 54th in June, though Groulx was projected by many as a top-40 prospect. His skating is flawed, and he isn't much of a scorer, but he processes the game extremely fast and never makes an irresponsible play. As someone who can play the wing just as well as he plays center, Groulx looks to be a middle-six physical forward with some penalty kill usage.

6 Josh Mahura, D (85th overall, 2016. Last year: 10th) In a system chock full of mobile, puck-moving defensemen, Josh Mahura fits right in. After a torn MCL in his draft year limited the left-hander to just two WHL games, he has since exploded and become point-per-game blueliner with Regina, where he was third in team points last season. He's a fearsome offensive presence who always wants the puck on his stick, and whether that be to shoot or pass, you can be confident it's heading to the right place. He has tremendous vision and a sizzler of a shot, and as the 20-year-old slides into pro play, he'll work on the one thing that ails him: d-zone coverage and zone-entry defense.

7 Blake McLaughlin, LW (79th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) A University of Minnesota commit, Blake McLaughlin is a smart and skilled undersized forward with the vision to match the best playmakers of his 2018 draft class. He was one of few players on a dysfunctional Chicago Steel to routinely create dangerous opportunities, and he does so with his determination, hockey sense, and great tape-to-tape passing skills. McLaughlin has quick hands and holds his own defensively, allowing for potential as a penalty killer at higher levels. A top-40 prospect in our draft guide, the 18-year-old lefty fell due to his inconsistency and his size deficiencies but can workshop the two in the NCAA ranks.

8 Max Jones, LW (24th overall, 2016. Last year: 4th) After injury ravaged his 2017-18 season, Max Jones understandably fell in our rankings compared to last season. Nonetheless, the former first-rounder is a strong, sturdy, and skilled power forward with a goal scorer's acumen and superb wheels. The Kingston Frotenacs winger plays with an angry and feisty demeanor for better or worse (he's twice been suspended for 10+ games in his OHL career) but when he's feeling it, that explosive swagger pays off for him and his linemates. Jones needs to stay healthy as he begins to transition to the AHL and NHL ranks, and additionally, work on staying cool and becoming less prone to penalties. Otherwise, he has the skill and speed to match his fellow first-rounders.

9 Antoine Morand, C (60th overall, 2017. Last year: 9th) Much like Steel, Morand's game revolves around his hockey sense and vision on offense. An assist machine, he has totaled 70 or more points in each of his last two seasons in the QMJHL, while leading Acadie-Bathurst in points this past season. He has good straight-ahead speed, swift hands, a decent finishing touch, and great stick skills. He will need to clean his two-way game up a bit and add more muscle to his slight frame before any move to the pro ranks occurs, but his speed and offensive firepower as a grade A setup man suggests a sure NHL future.

Jacob Larsson

10 Jacob Larsson, D (27th overall, 2015. Last year: 3rd) Jacob Larsson still has a little while to go before the book comes out on him, but he may not be the dynamic offensive defenseman the Ducks drafted him as. Thankfully, with a good core of young d-men at the NHL level, Anaheim has the luxury of waiting on Larsson to improve. He is a gifted skater with poetic pure movement on his feet, boasts fast hands, and possesses NHL-ready size. The Swede puts himself into trouble too often with poor passes and needlessly long shifts, and really, the points are coming like they should for a blueliner with as much pure skill as Larsson (16 in 50 games for San Diego). His flaws are coachable things, but at 21, defensemen of Larsson's pedigree generally have those things down by then.

11 Olle Eriksson Ek, G (153rd overall, 2017. Last year: 11th) With John Gibson locked up long-term, Anaheim has time to wait for their goaltending prospects to fully mature and come to fruition. At just 19, Eriksson Ek has a long way to go, but a whole bunch of raw skill upon which to build. One good sign in his development is his presence as a regular in the SHL at his young age. At 6-3" and 186lbs, he's big and only getting bigger, and when you couple that pure size with his plus athleticism and strong play-reading abilities, you have a near-complete goaltender. The Swede will be given tons of opportunities down the road as the top young goalie in the system.

12 Lukas Dostal, G (85th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Of course, competition breeds excellence, and Lukas Dostal is the perfect prospect to help push Eriksson Ek out of his comfort zone. An undersized netminder, Dostal was worth the gamble of a third-round pick in June by virtue of his unwavering compete level and above-average athleticism. At 18, he is not the most technically refined goaltender, but he moves well laterally and is calm enough to keep his focus square on the puck. Dostal has one of the highest ceilings out of goaltenders selected in 2018's draft, and his success as an 18-year-old in the second Czech men's league (2.43 GAA, .921 Sv%) is promising.

13 Jack Badini, C (91st overall, 2017. Last year: 12th) Jack Badini is a coach's dream. The Harvard center is already an accomplished one, having led USHL Chicago in goals and playoff scoring during 2016-17's Clark Cup run, but his smarts and willingness to play in a variety of roles makes him one of the most valuable players in a pretty loaded Crimson lineup. Badini just does whatever he's asked; he's a middle-six, penalty-killing checking line forward in one game, and a top-six goal scoring threat the next. He has great speed, energy, size, and hockey smarts. The 19-year-old is a long-term project at Harvard but has a lot of unteachable qualities down.

14 Kevin Roy, LW (97th overall, 2012. Last year: 6th) One of the most dangerous forwards in the San Diego lineup over the past two seasons, Kevin Roy made his NHL debut with the Ducks last season and fared well, scoring six goals in 25 games as a bottom-six winger. Roy has tremendous puck skills and a heads-up gameplay style that can casually spring his linemates out for easy chances, as well as beat defenders in one-on-one situations. He's a bit of a one-trick pony in that his positioning and defensive game is less than stellar, and on account of this, he isn't really a weapon away from the puck. However, the 25-year-old has enough raw skill for the Ducks to utilize him well as a depth scorer.

Kalle Kossila

15 Kalle Kossila, C (Free Agent Signing: March 30, 2016. Last year: 15th) A near point-per-game player in the AHL last season, Kalle Kossila is supremely skilled and mature enough to take on a depth NHL role in the blink of an eye. The undrafted forward, formerly of St. Cloud State fame, has unreal vision and near-elite passing skills that always have the puck moving in the right direction. He is more of a setup man than a shooter, but his wrist shot is heavy and accurate, and his positioning for quick shots when away from the puck is solid. He isn't a two-way player, but he's experienced enough to stay away from risky passes and unnecessary turnovers. Kossila also plays with a pretty greasy physical element that allows him to round out his checking-line forward ceiling. He's the perfect bottom-six depth scoring threat for a contending NHL team like Anaheim.

16 Andy Welinski, D (83rd overall, 2011. Last year: 13th) Andy Welinski has no single dynamic skill, but he's one of those old school defensemen that does all the little things well enough to ensure a roster spot. After four full years at Minnesota-Duluth, he charged into the AHL and has used his above-average skating ability, fiery point shot, high hockey IQ, and exceptional defensive-zone coverage to potentially earn an NHL job with Anaheim as soon as this season. At 25, the right-hander truly has no additional development to do, and his ceiling as a bottom-pair defensive defenseman has been reached; it's up to the Ducks to decide if they want to plug the solid and sturdy 2011 draft pick into a splendid defensive core.

17 Jack Kopacka, LW (93rd overall, 2016. Last year: 14th) Jack Kopacka may not have the highest ceiling of the prospects listed here, but his energy and goal-scoring touch provide some enticing potential for the future. The speedy winger has an electric set of shots, can get a chance on net from a variety of ridiculous angles, and connects on a bunch of those shots, scoring 30+ goals in each of the past two campaigns with the OHL's Sault Ste. Marie. He's also a hard-working winger who can create his scoring opportunities on his own and do it the hard and physical way with his 6-3" body. Kopacka has a year of junior eligibility left, where he will -- for his sake -- work on his backchecking and puck-possession ability.

18 Giovanni Fiore, LW (Free Agent Signing: April 18, 2017. Last year: Unranked) An enigmatic winger out of junior, not many looked at Fiore as a legitimate prospect entering and during his first pro season, but a quality debut year in the AHL erased some of the question marks around him. Fiore is a graceful skater with impressive offensive vision and used those skills to score 18 goals and 12 assists with the Gulls last season after a 52-goal final junior campaign. He clearly has a natural goal scorer's most important traits, including an untiring determination to drive right to the net with the puck and employ his plus finishing skills to pot a goal. He seems to be a pure scoring player with a lack of versatility, but he's a guy that can create his chances solo and provide matchup problems for the defense.

19 Marcus Pettersson, D (38th overall, 2014. Last year: 17th) Maybe Marcus Pettersson never reaches the talent ceiling a high second-round pick should have, but Ducks fans got to see firsthand how smart and calm the big, lofty defenseman is. Pettersson held his own in 22 games with the Ducks and played top-pair minutes with the Gulls when he was down in the AHL. He's an extremely responsible, no-risk defensive defenseman with good reads, great gap control, and solid use of his advantage in size. He has fine instincts and is always on to defend late leads for San Diego. Pettersson will never be a go-to offensive option, but with Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm around, he doesn't need to be.

20 Kyle Olson, RW (122nd overall, 2017. Last year: 8th) Though he only played in 36 games with Tri-City of the WHL, Kyle Olson's point total from his draft year fell off a cliff, going from 57 to 18. The undersized but energetic forward has a chance to redeem himself this season with the Americans, however, as the 19-year-old's strong wrist shot, solid two-way gameplay, and impressively tough physical game for someone his size make him a good bet for a big rebound year. He plays with fearlessness and more greasiness than his 5-10", 161lb frame naturally provides, and competes with high effort levels on the Tri-City PK. He needs to stay healthy and consistent to remain on the Ducks' radar going forward.

Anaheim – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:17:18 +0000

Having only once in the last five years selected even seven players at the draft, the Anaheim Ducks, a perennial contender, has had to make those picks count. Thankfully for them, they have had a remarkable hit rate over the past decade, regularly producing two or more bonafide NHLers. In fact, between 2000 and 2013, the Ducks had only one draft class that did not include at least two players who have played at least 144 games in the NHL. With their top 20 list made up mostly of players drafted since 2013, that success streak looks primed to continue.

So how do they do it?

Not known as a heavily analytics-influenced organization, the Ducks have nevertheless followed the two golden rules of drafting as prescribed by analysts.

Rule #1 – Do not overdraft goaltending. Dating back to 1993, their first draft, Anaheim has never used a first round pick on a netminder. In fact, only twice have they even used a second rounder on net, drafting Ilya Bryzgalov in 2000 and John Gibson in 2011. Many years go by where they do not draft goaltenders at all.

Rule #2 – Always draft skill/production. The thinking here suggests that players who do not produce as juniors will likewise struggle to produce once (if) they move up the ladder. Statistically speaking, there is a correlation between points produced at age 18 and points produced in a player’s early 20s. Since selecting Logan McMillan 19^th overall in 2007, a player who had some skill, but was not even among the leading scorers on his own team. McMillan, like Mark Mitera, selected by Anaheim in the 2006 first round, never made it to the NHL.

Since then, the worst first round pick in the Ducks’ decade long backlog has been Peter Holland. Not really a bad player, he has already played 243 games in his NHL career, but has simply never received (some would say, never earned) a top six role. Generally speaking, the Ducks have drafted players with both top six/top four upsides as well as the versatility to play in roles of greater defensive significance. This philosophy has not just been a first round SOP, but something they carried with them to later rounds as well.

These two rules, particularly the latter rule, have remained prevalent in the last few drafts, even if the players are not yet NHL-ready. Whether the prospect was a first rounder like Sam Steel, or a fifth rounder like Troy Terry, chances are that he has a record of high offensive production from his amateur days, tools that suggest that he can continue to produce further up the chain, and the hockey IQ that will allow him to contribute from a role with more limited offensive opportunities, as even fourth liners these days need to have talent.

Of course, luck also is a factor, but the ability to continuously stock a system with potential NHL contributors, prolonged over several years, is more skill than fortune. This is unlikely to end any time soon.

1 Sam Steel – The WHL’s leading scorer, Steel will have to return to Regina for a curtain call unless the Ducks keep him in Anaheim. Probably the smartest player in the system, he has near-elite hockey sense, coupled with strong instincts and close-to-perfect positioning. A play driver, he can be dangerous with the puck from anywhere in the offensive zone. A fantastic playmaker, the only thing that separates him from a second line NHL job is approximately 10 pounds of muscle.

2 Brandon Montour – If postseason play was included, Montour would have lost his prospect eligibility last year, with 44 games played between the regular season and playoffs with Anaheim. As 17 of those games came when it counted, he is still here. Those games were good enough that the Ducks exposed former first round pick Shea Theodore to the expansion draft. A modern-day puck rushing blueliner, Montour is equally comfortable leading the rush as he is passing the puck into the neutral zone. Took big steps away from the puck this year and should be in the regular defensive rotation because of it.

3 Jacob Larsson – After starting the season as a 19 year old in Anaheim and then San Diego, Larsson was loaned back to Frolunda where he struggled at times. This ranking is as much about his inherent skill set than what he has done with it of late. Each of his skating ability, shooting, puck handling and hockey smarts grade out as above average, and he has an NHL body, to boot. Would like to see his instincts improve, but he is still young enough for continued growth in that area.

Max Jones of the London Knights was selected by the Anaheim Ducks in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, NY on Friday June 24, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

4 Max Jones – An explosive forward who plays with at least as much vinegar as salt, Jones was showing improvements in his offensive game last year before injury kept him off the ice until the postseason. His extreme aggressiveness can do more harm than good at time, as he is very penalty prone. A bullish puck carrier, he has good wheels, drives hard to the net and is responsible defensively, at least when not getting physically reckless. Can remind one of Nick Ritchie.

5 Troy Terry – The ideal Ducks pick, Terry has gone from fifth round afterthought to American hero in under two years. Accomplished the rare double last year of winning the WJC gold – in no small part due to his own shootout exploits – and an NCAA championship, as one of the top scorers with Denver. A phenomenal puck handler, he scores through vision, positioning, patience and ridiculously quick hands. Heading back to Denver for his junior year.

6 Kevin Roy – In many organizations, Kevin Roy would be the prospect with the best puck skills. Just because Anaheim also has Steel, Terry and Antoine Morand around, does not mean that Roy should be overlooked. An up and down first pro season after four full years with Northeastern showed a player still learning what will and will not work in the AHL. Still needs to show better commitment to defensive duties, but he has the skills to lure a defenseman out of position and casually spring a linemate to a scoring chance.

7 Maxime Comtois – A top midget player heading into his QMJHL draft year, Comtois spent most of the past two years developing his defensive side. He has plus size and learned how to leverage that gift on the ice, displaying a more consistent physical aggression. His scoring was more impressive in his previous season and if he can combine the two-way physical game of 2016-17 with the scoring winger of 2015-16, he will end up playing a middle six NHL role in short order.

Kyle Olson

8 Kyle Olson – Although his draft year point production is underwhelming, if we limit our search to even strength production, Olson rockets up the list as only eight of his 57 points came on the man advantage. Small but aggressive, he plays a two-way game with energy and fearlessness. Owns a strong wrist shot with a tricky release. Will need to add more beef to be able to continue to play this style at a higher level, but he fits the Ducks style of skill pick with two-way sensibilities in the middle rounds.

9 Antoine Morand – Once the second overall pick in the QMJHL entry draft, Morand showed all of the puck skills that had him so highly touted as a 16-year old. In some ways, resembles an East Coast version of Steel, in that he is slight and small, and his skating is more notable for his edgework than his straight-ahead speed. His offensive work suggest a sure-fire NHLer, but he will need to tighten up his game away from the puck more first.

10 Josh Mahura – After a torn MCL limited him to two regular season games in his draft year, a strong playoffs convinced the Ducks that they could get tremendous value by drafting Mahura in the third round. He responded with over 50 points from the blueline last season and a near point-per-game postseason performance for Regina. A strong offensive presence with good vision in the O-zone, he can still show as being raw in coverage.

11 Olle Eriksson Ek – The only goalie even considered for the Ducks’ top 20 list, Eriksson Ek had a very good season in Sweden’s top junior circuit before struggling somewhat down the stretch and only featuring as the backup for Team Sweden’s entry at the WU18. Athletic with plus play reading ability, he will need much more time to develop, but without much between the pipes system-wide, he is in the right organization to receive all the chances he needs.

Jack Badini, Courtesy of the USHL and Hickling Images

12 Jack Badini – After contributing only 11 points for Lincoln in his first draft year, Badini moved to Chicago and exploded, using his great speed and hockey smarts to score 28 regular season goals and then lead all USHL players in playoff scoring as Chicago won the Clark Cup. A great penalty killer, he is always involved in the play and projects as a future analytics darling. In the meantime, he will continue his development at Harvard.

13 Andy Welinski – The only member of Anaheim’s 2011 seven player draft class yet to spend time in the NHL, Welinski had a strong debut in the AHL after four solid seasons with Minnesota-Duluth. While he lacks any one carrying tool, his solid-average combination of skating ability, point shot and hockey IQ will keep him in the picture for a while yet. He showed more than expected in his first season with San Diego and another one like it will ensure that the entire draft class reaches the NHL.

14 Jack Kopacka – A hard working winger with understated finishing skills, Kopacka does not have the biggest upside in this group of prospects, but his high-rev motor and solid stride give him a more than respectable floor. More a scorer than a puck handler, his future projection assumes as much value off the puck as on. A strong OHL postseason portends a jump in production for his final OHL season.

15 Kalle Kossila – The only player from this list not drafted by Anaheim, Kossila was never a high priority prospect in Finland, having never represented his country in any IIHF-sanctioned tournaments. After a big step forward as an 18 year old, he came to North America to play for St. Cloud State where he continued to put up strong numbers. While his skating is sub-par, he is a clever player with plus playmaking skills. Can play center or on the wing.

16 Deven Sideroff – A solid two way player when he was drafted, Sideroff stepped up his game year over year until he aged out of the WHL. A high energy winger who can be relied upon in all situations, combines a modicum of skill with a high hockey IQ. While he had long shown a decent playmaking touch, the added goals last year were a sign that his game has been rounding off. He is ready for the AHL.

17 Marcus Pettersson – A late convert to the blueline, the tall and lean Pettersson has seemingly staled in his progression to master his new position. He skates rather well, with agility and a smooth stride, both impressive at his size. His puck handling is OK, but he can struggle off the puck, showing his lack of experience. He is rarely aggressive and struggles to maintain proper defensive positioning. Expected to play in the AHL this year, the Ducks will take their time with a player who is still essentially a project.

18 Brent Gates Jr. – Only a moderate scorer in his draft year with Green Bay of the USHL, Gates flailed out of the gate (sorry) as a freshman with Minnesota. As a sophomore this year, things began to look up. His quick hands, always a strength, now had more time and space to create, allowing him to get more of a workout for his quick shot release. His top speed is average, but he has a nice startup and drives hard to the net. The next step in his development is increased consistency.

19 Julius Nattinen – the Ducks were understandably excited when Nattinen came to the OHL after being drafted and immediately excelled with 71 points in 52 games. Naturally, when his point production rate fell nearly in half as a follow-up, there was disappointment all around. Not only did his offensive game suffer, but so too did his work off the puck. Has shown enough skills and smarts in the past to give him a mulligan. More is expected as he gets set to make his professional debut this year.

20 Nic Kerdiles – Finally, at the 20 slot, the Ducks have a prospect who is nearing bust status. The 2012 2^nd rounder has completed his ELC and has only a solitary NHL game to his credit. He has a chance to add to that this year. He is a defensively responsible winger who has been a decent secondary scorer in the AHL but finds himself down here as his offensive totals have remained remarkably stagnant as he has fought injuries throughout his career.

As long as the NHL squad does not need a young netminder in the next two or three years, the Ducks system will be ready to pump out two or three talented prospects every year for the foreseeable future. With talent and skill and every skating position, this team should be able to continue as a contender for a few more years to come.

NHL Prospect Watch: Anaheim Ducks

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 21 Mar 2016 16:35:30 +0000

Anaheim Ducks' fans are among the biggest beneficiaries of the AHL’s decision to open up a Pacific division to house the affiliates of the West Coast-based NHL teams. Perhaps not as fortunate as Sharks' fans, whose up-and-comers get to play in the same arena, nevertheless the Ducks’ affiliate, based in San Diego, is only 90 minutes away in ideal traffic conditions. Maybe three hours in regular Southern California traffic.

Beyond proximity, the new Gulls' franchise has also seen many of the most highly touted Ducks' prospects suit up for their fans this season, among them former first rounders' Nick Ritchie and Shea Theodore, as well as others of intrigue such as Nicolas Kerdiles, Stefan Noesen and Brandon Montour.

With help from Hockey Prospectus author Jason Lewis (@SirJDL on twitter), we will review here a few of the more impressive Gulls this season as well as a few more who might be Gulls in the year or two to come.

The highest profile prospect to suit up for the AHL affiliate was winger Nick Ritchie. A former 10^th overall choice in 2014, Ritchie sticks out for his size and stickhandling abilities. Listed at a burly 6-2”, 232, he utilizes every pound on his frame on the ice. He relishes playing in the difficult areas of the ice and knows how to use his strength to his advantage to win board battles for the puck. He fits the Western Conference profile of a forward who can play dirty, play down low and score. While his initial NHL experience has been trying, with only one goal and one assist in his first 26 games, he fared much better in the AHL, with 28 points in 33 games, excellent numbers for a first year pro who only turned 20 two months into the season. Ritchie is a mule on the puck, very hard to dispossess him when he has it along the boards or down low and has a quick shot release, which will help him score with regularity from scrums near the crease going forward. His skating is still a work in progress, as he is not slow, but lacks much wow factor in terms of acceleration.

Considering the limited minutes he has received in the AHL, averaging under 12 minutes TOI per game, his development would have been better served with more time away from the spotlight in San Diego. On the other hand, in spite of his lack of offensive production, his possession figures have been strong in protected shifts and he has been a willing crasher and banger. Further, with the Ducks strong second half play, Ritchie has gained valuable experience – and will gain even more in the postseason – that will come in handy as he works his way up the depth chart in the coming year or two. The premature NHL time may delay his ascent to a top six role, but that is still his expected destination in the near future.

Just as high end as Ritchie on the Gulls roster this year has been two way blueliner Shea Theodore, also a first year pro. Theodore spent more of his with San Diego, getting only 13 NHL games as of this writing. Ironically, he produced three times as many points as his aforementioned teammate in half the games. His possession numbers were also stellar, without the benefit of protection. Whereas Ritchie excels in the power game, Theodore’s skill set lends itself far more to finesse and smoothness. For a team that is already stacked at the NHL level with young and mobile defenders along the caliber of Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindhold and Sami Vatanen, having Theodore waiting in the wings is almost unfair. The former Seattle Thunderbird is a fantastic skater in either direction and is a veritable weapon from the point, equally comfortable winding up for the slap shot, releasing a quicker wrister or passing to a better positioned teammate.

He sees the ice well and does a good job carrying the mail up the ice, or distributing the puck when more appropriate. While not known for his defensive game, he does not lack in that area either. He will never be a pure shut down defender, but his positional sense, willingness to sell out to prevent an opposition play and general ability to clear the zone should be sufficient to see him as part of a second unit, if not paired up with a more traditional defensive-minded partner on the first pairing. The biggest hurdle left for Theodore to climb is the presence of his aforementioned teammates. There were rumors earlier this year that the Ducks may be shopping one or both of Vatanen and Fowler. Without trading at least one of those – most likely Vatanen, a pending RFA – there will be no role for Theodore to take. The British Columbia native will be ready for a full time position in the NHL to start next season. While a few more months in the AHL would not hurt him, he is not far from being in a position of extracting diminishing returns with additional seasoning.

Theodore’s equal as an offensive blueliner is his current Gulls teammate Brandon Montour. A former second round pick, Montour went from scoring a point per game in the USHL to nearly matching that feat in the AHL in the space of two years. Put simply, he is an offensive dynamo. He is a well above average skater with great hands. He will always support the rush and more often than not, will actively participate in it as well. He has an excellent point shot and uses it judiciously, as he knows how to get it through traffic without being blocked.

As good as Montour is when the Gulls have the puck, he is equally as dangerous without it. Very eager to get the puck back, he will make many, many poorly thought out risky decisions, leaving his team in an awkward situation as he recovers from losing position. As fast as he is, very few defenders can recover in time from the positions he finds himself in due to over exuberance. His physical game is also lacking, making him a net negative in his own end. Assuming the Gulls can recover the puck, he finds himself useful once more at orchestrating the outlet, but does not do enough to assist in the process of regaining possession. In spite of his awesome offensive production in the AHL in his first full season as a professional, there is a good reason for his not being given a call up this season. Even as the game evolves, and teams are more likely to choose skill over brawn, there is still little patience for risk, unless even when overwhelmed by reward. See the trials and tribulations faced by Norris winner PK Subban in Montreal for a prominent example. Not that Montour is another Subban, but rather he is much riskier from a defensive perspective, meaning he is less likely to earn the trust needed to get the ice time and prime power play opportunities that Subban does. Assuming he continues to work in his defensive play, Montour could emerge as a powerplay specialist type who is limited to a 4/5 role at even strength. If he doesn’t, T.J. Brennan is the template. Another year in the AHL is a near inevitability.

While not as exciting as the three previously featured prospects, San Diego had a trio of other forwards of note suit up there this year with decent likelihoods of NHL careers ahead of them. Former second rounder Nicolas Kerdiles. Now in his second pro season, Kerdiles does not stand out in any one facet of his game, but neither does he have any glaring weaknesses. An intelligent and versatile forward who can play center or on the wing, he has moderate offensive ability to go along with shutdown center qualities. Frequently used to kill penalties, he has increased his offensive production in his second year in the AHL. It is hard to see a future wherein he scores much more than 30 points per season in the NHL, but that is solid work for a bottom six forward who contributes in his own end. Kerdiles should be ready for an extended NHL trial next season.

Also worth mentioning is Michael Sgarbossa, who came over from Colorado in a minor trade last March. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent out of the OHL’s Saginaw program by San Jose, he has proven himself to be a strong AHL producer over four pro seasons. His puck skills are solid, but not good enough to be a carrying tool if that was all he could bring to the table. Thankfully, he also has a knack for finding seams in coverage, making strong passes and is responsible enough to be used to kill penalties as well. He may be a tweener, in the sense that his skill set is not clearly strong enough for a top nine NHL role, but can sometimes look like the best player on the ice in the AHL. Nevertheless, a pending RFA, he has earned a longer NHL look than the nine games across two seasons he has so far received.

The last player I was to discuss from the San Diego squad is Czech winger Ondrej Kase. The former seventh rounder is an exciting player with good wheels and solid puck skills, but this year is unfortunately a wash for him in his first season since coming over from Europe. Having returned in the past two weeks, he is already showing why he might soon be regarded as a draft steal. Nonetheless, the down time this season can only be seen as a major disappointment.

A talented player in a similar situation to Kase is NCAA forward Kevin Roy. Undersized at 5-9”, the former fourth rounder has scored at over one point per game throughout his four year stay in the collegiate ranks. In looks last season, Roy showed himself to be a skilled playmaker who plays with a very high panic threshold, allowing him to take positional risks offensively than less brave players would not. Injuries greatly hampered his play this year, but he is now healthy and will look to try to lift a decent Northeastern squad into the NCAA tournament before considering a likely contract offer from the Ducks.

Another collegian who should be on the receiving end of a contract offer shortly is Minnesota-Duluth captain Andy Welinski. Not a standout in any part of the game, he has been a solid NCAA blueliner, proficient in his own zone with strong gap control and a good enough shot from the point that will not look out of place in the AHL. His offensive production was decent for UMD, but never really improved after a solid freshman season. The lack of progress may limit the Ducks offer to an AHL contract only, but the floor of his ability is high enough to warrant at least that, if not more.

Looking to Europe, I received a strong report from Hockey Prospectus contributor Miika Arponen on Finnish winger Miro Aaltonen who compared him to Jere Lehtinen in style. A complete player with a strong own zone game, there have been unconfirmed rumors that the former seventh rounder could make his way to North America in the offseason after three and a half good season in Liiga.

Finally, a few words about the Ducks 2015 first rounder, Swedish defenseman Jacob Larsson. In the midst of a strong rookie season in the SHL, Larsson took some time out to represent his country at the WJC. Another highly mobile defenseman in the Anaheim pipeline, Larsson can absolutely fly when he sees a lane through the zone. He has a high panic threshold and will not rush a shot or pass due to pressure. I would like to see his awareness improve, but playing a full season in a men’s league at age 18 is impressive. His size is also a point in his favor and he has demonstrated that he can be tough to play against in the corners. There is still plenty of room for growth, but he is starting at a very good spot.