Anton Forsberg – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Ryan O’Reilly is having himself a season, Mattias Ekholm is chipping in offensively, Marco Kasper is breaking out of a season-long slump, the Artemi Panarin situation, Mikael Granlund, Mats Zuccarello, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 15:41:19 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Ryan O’Reilly is having himself a season, Mattias Ekholm is chipping in offensively, Marco Kasper is breaking out of a season-long slump, the Artemi Panarin situation, Mikael Granlund, Mats Zuccarello, and so much more!

#1 A veteran centre who is highly regarded for his two-way play, Nashville Predators pivot Ryan O’Reilly is having one of the most productive seasons of his career at age 34. O’Reilly has erupted for 38 points (12 G, 26 A) in his past 31 games and is up to 51 points (18 G, 33 A) in 53 games. For a player that has never scored a point per game over an NHL season, this is outstanding production. Right now, O’Reilly is skating on Nashville’s top line with Filip Forsberg and Luke Evangelista, but there is the possibility that if the Predators are sellers at the trade deadline that O’Reilly could be one of the most appealing players on the market.

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 14: Detroit Red Wings center Marco Kasper (92) during the game between the Detroit Red Wings and the San Jose Sharks Tuesday January 14, 2025 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

#2 Veteran Edmonton Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm recorded the first hat trick of his career in Monday’s 7-4 win over Anaheim and while he’s known for his two-way play rather than his offensive prowess, Ekholm does have eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games. There are benefits to partnering with Evan Bouchard on the Oilers’ top defence pairing and Ekholm is getting second-unit power play time.

#3 Detroit Red Wings forward Marco Kasper had a strong finish to his rookie season in 2024-2025, producing 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in his last 18 games, so there was some reason to be optimistic about his chances this season, but that was not materializing for him. Through his first 47 games, Kasper managed just six points (3 G, 3 A) with 67 shots on goal. He has recently been moved to Detroit’s top line, skating with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and suddenly Kasper has put up six points (2 G, 4 A) with 17 shots on goal in his past seven games, with his ice time spiking by more than three minutes per game compared to his first 47 games of the season.

#4 The New York Rangers appear to have decided that they are going to trade left winger Artemi Panarin and they are keeping him out of the lineup so that he does not get injured while the Rangers seek a trade for their leading scorer. Panarin’s absence will have a ripple effect throughout the Rangers lineup. Rookie Gabe Perreault is joining J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad on the Rangers’ top line, and Perreault has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 21 games for the Rangers this season. The 2023 first-round pick had 17 points (10 G, 7 A) in 20 AHL games, so he’s probably ready for a good look in Manhattan and, at least in the short term, he’s got a good situation. Once Panarin gets moved, the lines could be due for another shuffle, depending on what the Rangers get in return.

#5 Anaheim Ducks veteran Mikael Granlund recorded the fourth hat trick of his career during Monday’s loss at Edmonton and with the Ducks’ forward lines getting depleted by injuries, they need Granlund to play a big offensive role. Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Troy Terry, and Frank Vatrano are all out due to injuries and Granlund has recorded 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 28 shots on goal in his past 11 games. That shot rate is an encouraging sign because Granlund does have a tendency to focus on distributing the puck, sometimes to the detriment of his shot generation.

#6 Injuries have impacted Minnesota Wild veteran right winger Mats Zuccarello but he’s heating up. Since Christmas, Zuccarello has played 17 games and delivered 16 points (6 G, 10 A) with 35 shots on goal. He does have the benefit of playing with Kirill Kaprizov on Minnesota’s top line. Right now, Ryan Hartman is centering the duo, but there has been plenty of movement in that spot, especially since Marco Rossi was injured then traded.

#7 One of the bigger surprises this season is the offensive emergence of Buffalo Sabres defenceman Mattias Samuelsson. Last season, he scored a career high of 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 62 games. The Sabres fired GM Kevyn Adams in December, replacing him with Jarmo Kekalainen, and there is no reason to believe that a GM change suddenly caused the Sabres to play better, but there’s no denying the results and it applies to Samuelsson. In 21 games since Kekalainen took over, Samuelsson has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) with 27 shots on goal. He is up to 32 points for the season, with zero points on the power play, which is the most points for any skater that has not recorded at least one point on the power play.

#8 An undrafted 27-year-old goaltender who had never played in the NHL before this season, Carolina’s Brandon Bussi is having an amazing impact in his first NHL season. Even though he did not have his best performance Thursday, allowing four goals on 25 shots against Utah, Bussi still got the win, and he has a record of 20-3-1, to go with a .908 save percentage in 24 starts. With Pyotr Kochetkov out for the season and Frederik Andersen struggling, Bussi is making the most of his chance in the National Hockey League.

#9 When the Edmonton Oilers came up short in the Stanley Cup Finals, followed by a slow start to this season, a lot of the blame got pinned on goaltender Stuart Skinner. To be fair, some of that was earned, but it paved the way for the Oilers to trade Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a deal to acquire Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been great in Edmonton, posting a .884 save percentage in nine games, though he does have a 6-2-1 record. On the other hand, Skinner has a .906 save percentage in 11 starts for Pittsburgh, posting a 7-4 record as the Penguins have been one of the bigger surprise teams in the NHL this season. All of this is to say that there may be some value in Stuart Skinner after it looked like his career was in purgatory.

#10 With the Buffalo Sabres one of the hottest teams in the NHL, the results have improved for individual Sabres, too. Veteran winger Jason Zucker has battled through some injuries this season, but he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past eight games, a solid source of secondary scoring for the surging Sabres while skating on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn. While his 197 hits in 2022-2023 stands out as an aberration for his career, Zucker does add about a hit per game, sitting on exactly that number with 34 hits in 34 games this season.

#11 The return of Evgeni Malkin to the Penguins lineup is having a positive impact on Tommy Novak, who is still holding the second line centre spot with Malkin skating on right wing. Novak is no prize in the faceoff dot, winning 40 percent of his draws, but in his past seven games, Novak has seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal for a Penguins team that is surprisingly in the playoff mix.

#12 While Brayden Point is injured, the Tampa Bay Lightning have moved Anthony Cirelli up the depth chart to skate at centre on the top line between Brandon Hagel and Nikita Kucherov. In 13 games this month, Cirelli has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) with 21 shots on goal. Cirelli does not have a major impact on the power play, with only four of his 35 points this season coming with the man advantage, but as a short-term fix, he has value because of his outstanding linemates.

#13 Since the Columbus Blue Jackets made a change behind the bench, replacing Dean Evason with Rick Bowness, they are starting to see better results from centre Adam Fantilli, who was underperforming under Evason. Through 45 games before Evason was let go, Fantilli managed 28 points (12 G, 16 A) with 120 shots on goal. In seven games under Bowness, Fantilli has six points (1 G, 5 A) with 34 shots on goal, improving both his per game point and shot rates. It’s a small sample, but an encouraging sign for a player that the Blue Jackets tend to lean on for offensive production.

#14 Veteran Montreal Canadiens defenceman Mike Matheson can get overshadowed by Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson, who get the power play time on the Montreal blueline, but there’s plenty to like about a defenceman who is riding a six-game point streak, during which he has six assists and 14 shots on goal. With 27 points (5 G, 22 A) in 51 games, Matheson is primed to have the second-best offensive output of his career this season, and he already has 106 blocked shots which makes him worthwhile for fantasy managers, especially those in deeper leagues.

#15 Second-year San Jose Sharks winger Will Smith has been on a tear since returning to the lineup after missing more than a month of action. In six games since returning, Smith has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 13 shots on goal and now that he’s back on the top line with Macklin Celebrini and Collin Graf, the Sharks are looking more and more like viable playoff contenders.

#16 It’s looking rather bleak for the Toronto Maple Leafs lately, as the team is winless in six, but veteran forward Max Domi is making the most of his opportunity to skate on the top line with Auston Matthews. In his past seven games, Domi has nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 14 shots on goal while averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game. That’s significantly more ice time than Domi has typically received in Toronto and while he is delivering offensive production, it’s also notable that the team isn’t winning even with his uptick in scoring.

#17 One of the more underrated players in the league this season is Nashville Predators right winger Luke Evangelista, who has exceptional play-driving numbers (59.8 CF%, +10.6 CFRel%) thanks to strong performance at both ends of the rink. He only has seven goals, which is part of the reason that he might be overlooked, but in his past 16 games, Evangelista has 13 points (2 G, 11 A) with 29 shots on goal and the Preds outscored opponents 13-8 at 5-on-5 with Evangelista on the ice during that stretch.

#18 Second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Jackson Blake continues to provide secondary offence, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past six games. Blake is skating on a line with Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven and when that trio is together, the Hurricanes are outscoring opponents 15-10 during 5-on-5 play. It’s even better when Blake and Stankoven are without Hall, as they are outscoring opponents 12-5.

#19 Boston Bruins rookie centre Fraser Minten continues to get better and he’s taking advantage of the opportunities presented on a Bruins team with a need for more offense down the middle of the ice. In his past 15 games, Minten has put up 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 26 shots on goal. He’s not going to continue scoring on more than 30 percent of his shots over the long haul, but Minten is giving the Bruins options. With Elias Lindholm out, Minten is centering an effective line with Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson on his wings and if Minten continues to score, he’s going to force his way into more ice time. That’s usually how it works.

#20 There are a few backup goaltenders who could be threatening to earn more playing time with their strong play this month. Calgary’s Devin Cooley has a 2-2-1 record with a .937 save percentage in January. The Kings’ Anton Forsberg is 3-0-1 with a .941 save percentage, and San Jose’s Alex Nedeljkovic is 5-1 with a .913 save percentage in January and Boston’s Joonas Korpisalo is 4-0-1 with a .931 save percentage, so there are some goalies out there trying to earn more playing time. The challenge for most of them is that their starters are well entrenched in their positions, but for fantasy managers that can make daily moves, knowing which backups are delivering results can help make lineup decisions.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – The NHL season is winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like rookies Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson Blake, as well as veterans Duchene and Gallagher.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 17:15:05 +0000

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 23: San Jose Sharks Center William Smith (2) skates with the puck during the first period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks on February 23, 2025, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, with the NHL season winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like Sharks rookie Will Smith, Ducks rookie Cutter Gauthier, and Hurricanes rookie Jackson Blake, as well as veterans like Matt Duchene, Brendan Gallagher.

#1 San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith was brought along slowly at the start of the season, with limited ice time and healthy scratched for some games, but he has really hit his stride in the second half of the season. In his first 40 games, Smith had 15 points (6 G, 9 A) with 56 shots on goal while playing a little more than 14 minutes per game. In 30 games since then, Smith has 29 points (11 G, 18 A) with 65 shots on goal while averaging 17:30 of ice time per game. He had a goal and three assists in Wednesday’s 8-7 overtime loss at Minnesota, playing more than 20 minutes for the third time in his past five games.

#2 It’s not as if he is unknown, but the season that 34-year-old Dallas Stars centre Matt Duchene has put together has probably flown under the radar a bit. He was held off the scoresheet Thursday night, snapping a seven-game point streak, during which he had 10 points (3 G, 7 A), lifting him to 81 points (30 G, 51 A) for the season. It is the second time in his career that Duchene has surpassed 80 points. The first was in 2021-2022 when he was with Nashville.

#3 Buffalo Sabres centre Peyton Krebs has turned into an unlikely source of offensive production late in the season. In his past nine games, Krebs has eight points (3 G, 5 A), albeit with just 13 shots on goal, so maybe not the most sustainable production. Nevertheless, he has tied career highs with nine goals and 26 points and has been a solid two-way centre for the Sabres and Buffalo has outscored the opposition 40-35 with Krebs on the ice during five-on-five situations.

#4 Veteran Montreal Canadiens right winger Brendan Gallagher has stepped up his game as the Habs make a strong late push for a playoff spot. In his past dozen games, Gallagher has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 26 shots on goal. He had just five points in his previous 18 games, so this rise in production has come at just the right time and the crease-crashing winger is up to 21 goals and 38 points on the season, his most in both categories since the 2019-2020 season.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks are not in contention for a playoff spot, but they are getting to see what their future could look like, and they are getting some quality production out of second-year centre Leo Carlsson and rookie left winger Cutter Gauthier late in the season. Since the beginning of February, Carlsson has contributed 28 points (11 G, 17 A) with 43 shots on goal in 28 games. Gauthier scored his 20th goal of the season Thursday at Los Angeles, and since the 4 Nations Face-Off, he has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) with 70 shots on goal in 25 games.

#6 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake continues to make great progress and is finishing his first NHL season skating on the Hurricanes’ top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis as well as getting first unit power play time for the ‘Canes. Since the trade deadline, Blake has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 37 shots on goal in 15 games.

#7 Second year Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster is playing hard even as the Flyers have fallen out of playoff contention. In his past eight games, Foerster has contributed nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 20 shots on goal. He recorded the first hat trick of his career on Wednesday against the New York Rangers and is up to 22 goals for the season. He is skating on a line with Noah Cates and Bobby Brink in addition to getting first unit power play time for the Flyers.

#8 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot has had an excellent all-around season and is finishing the season in fine form. In his past eight games, Chabot has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 12 shots on goal and 22 blocked shots. Jake Sanderson is the quarterback on Ottawa’s top power play, so Chabot has only managed seven power play points this season, but his 40 points represents the third time that he has hit that threshold in his NHL career. Moreover, the Senators have outshot, out-chanced, and outscored the opposition with Chabot on the ice.

#9 When the Colorado Avalanche acquired Charlie Coyle at the trade deadline, it was not exactly an earth-shattering deal. Coyle had struggled in Boston this season, putting up 22 points (15 G, 7 A) in 61 games. He didn’t do much upon first arriving in Colorado, managing two assists in 13 games, but Coyle has started to turn things around, with seven points (1 G, 6 A) during a four-game point streak. While he is centering Miles Wood and Jimmy Vesey at even strength, Coyle is getting first unit power play time with Nathan MacKinnon nursing an injury.

#10 This has been a forgettable season for the New York Islanders, but they have seen quality development from right winger Simon Holmstrom, who has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak. After scoring 25 points as a rookie last season, Holmstrom has produced 45 points (20 G, 25 A) this season and is holding a regular top six spot in the lineup, skating on a line with Maxim Tsyplakov and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#11 Joel Eriksson Ek returned to the Minnesota Wild lineup for the first time in more than six weeks and he buried four goals on eight shots in Minnesota’s 8-7 overtime win against San Jose. Eriksson Ek has 54 shots on goal in his past 13 games and that kind of shot generation does offer more support for his point production. Eriksson Ek gets first unit power play time in Minnesota and skates between wingers Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy at even strength.

#12 Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk returned to action Thursday after missing almost a month with a lower-body injury. Despite missing that time, Pionk has enjoyed a strong season, and his 37 points (9 G, 28 A) is his highest point total since 2019-2020. Pionk tends to offer value for fantasy managers because he delivers hits and blocked shots – he is two blocks away from his third straight season with at least 100 in both categories.

#13 Moving to the Calgary Flames from the Philadelphia Flyers has not brought immediate results for winger Joel Farabee, who is in the midst of a 14-game stretch without a goal, and he only has three assists in that span. Farabee is skating on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, two veterans who have shown that they can consistently control play, but Farabee also has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.4 percent in Calgary, and that has to improve.

#14 It is understandable that a winger like the Oilers’ Zach Hyman will see his production fall off when Connor McDavid is out with an injury, so maybe he will be rejuvenated now that No. 97 has returned to action. Hyman has gone six games without a point, recording a dozen shots on goal. Hyman’s goal production has been cut in half, from 54 last year to 27 this season, but this late slump is difficult for fantasy managers, especially now that McDavid is back in the lineup.

#15 There is a similar situation in Colorado, except going in the other direction, as Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has just one assist in his past nine games. It could be encouraging that Lehkonen has 21 shots on goal in his past five games – he’s getting chances – but there is also the possibility that Nathan MacKinnon will be held out of the Avs lineup late in the season as they try to ensure that their superstar forward is healthy for the playoffs, and that makes it less likely that Lehkonen will bounce back too much before the postseason.

#16 It’s not just MacKinnon that could be done for the regular season as there are other stars that are dealing with injuries and may not return during the regular season. That includes Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Sam Bennett, Dylan Holloway, Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil, Aliaksei Protas, and Gabriel Vilardi, all of whom offer value to fantasy managers.

#17 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Teuvo Teravainen has had a relatively productive season, tallying 57 points (15 G, 42 A), but his shot rate is declining, and he is slumping because of it. He has just one assist in his past seven games but also has just six shots on goal, and that is more consistent with his shot rate this season, which is down from 1.87 per game last season to 1.37 per game this season. He is skating on a line with rookie Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, which should be competent enough to generate some offence, but Teravainen isn’t right now.

#18 Since March 20, the leading goaltenders in terms of save percentage (minimum five appearances): Darcy Kuemper (.942), Jake Oettinger (.942), Anthony Stolarz (.936), Anton Forsberg (.935), Andrei Vasilevskiy (.934), Connor Hellebuyck (.930), Casey DeSmith (.922), Sergei Bobrovsky (.921), Jordan Binnington (.920), and James Reimer (.920). While there are plenty of expected names – the top goaltenders in the league continue to play well – backups like Forsberg and DeSmith have value when they play, and Reimer has backstopped Buffalo’s late-season surge. Reimer is perhaps the most surprising and thus more available for fantasy managers.

#19 Since the 4 Nations Face-Off in February, Artemi Panarin and Tage Thompson are tied for the league lead with 13 five-on-five goals, ahead of David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie (both Bruins have 11), Jason Robertson and John Tavares, who both have 10. Cutter Gauthier, Jordan Kyrou, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Marchenko are next with nine. In terms of total goals, Thompson leads with 18, ahead of Alex Ovechkin (16), Tavares (16), Wyatt Johnston (15), and Tuch (15). Pastrnak, Panarin, Robertson, Geekie and Sidney Crosby all have 14 and Nick Suzuki has 13. The leader when it comes to individual expected goals in that time is Auston Matthews, with 13.44 and he has scored 10 goals in 23 games.

#20 With a nod to the future, the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes have both signed top prospects from the KHL. Montreal inked Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in the 2024 Draft, after he had an exceptional season with St. Petersburg SKA, producing 49 points (19 G, 30 A) in 65 regular-season games before adding five points in six playoff games. Demidov is expected to make his Habs debut on Monday against the Chicago Blackhawks and he will do so with great expectations from a fanbase that has been enjoying his development from afar all season. Carolina signed defenceman Alexander Nikishin, a third-round pick in 2020 who has turned into one of the premier defence prospects in the league. Nikishin is 6-foot-4 and has put up 157 points (45 G, 112 A) in 193 games across the past three seasons in the KHL. The Hurricanes have a solid veteran group on the blueline, so they don’t need to rush Nikishin into the lineup, but he will likely bring a higher upside and could prove to be good enough right away that he can’t be denied a spot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What about the Maple Leafs is not working? – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 16:05:37 +0000

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 24: Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 24, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs are going through a bit of a rough patch, losing their past three games and six of their last nine. Even after factoring in that slump, though, they have an impressive 30-19-2 record. This downturn is also coming at a time when they’re missing one of their top forwards in John Tavares (lower body) as well as the continued absence of Anthony Stolarz (knee).

Toronto seems to be a city of anxiety when it comes to the Leafs, brought on by years of playoff disappointments, so success seems to be treated with an asterisk whereas slumps come with an “Oh boy, here we go again” attitude, but given the overall success of this team thus far in 2024-25 and the recent injuries, would it be best to dismiss the recent struggles as just the type of stretch that every good team goes through, or is there really an underlining issue being exposed?

Certainly, this is still a good team, but when people express those doubts about Toronto, they’re not disputing that. Instead, they’re saying this team isn’t good enough to be regarded as a serious Stanley Cup contender, and by that standard, I do think this stretch highlights an area of real concern. Toronto has managed just one goal in each of its past three games and ranks 13th in goals per game this campaign with 3.04. For a team that’s built around four elite forwards, to have a lack of offense is rather discouraging.

In fact, 74.5 percent of Toronto’s cap is eaten by forwards compared to 54.3 percent for Winnipeg (3.58 goals per game) and 56.5 percent for Tampa Bay (3.48 goals per game). In fact, the only other team close to the Maple Leafs in terms of the percentage of their cap spent on forwards is Washington, but while the Capitals are at 74.7 percent, their situation is weird because Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2 million against the cap) and TJ Oshie ($5.75 million against the cap) are on LTIR. Even if we were talking apples to apples, though, at least Washington is getting value at 3.49 goals per game.

So, what is it about Toronto that isn’t working? You’ve probably already guessed because it is the common argument against the Maple Leafs’ way of doing things: If you spend $46.65 million on four forwards (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Tavares and Mitch Marner), then you don’t have much left over for the rest of your forward corps.

On another team, that could be supplemented by young players on entry-level contracts or players locked to team-friendly contracts. Toronto doesn’t have much of either on the forward side of things. Part of that is because for years now, Toronto has been trading futures for playoff runs that didn’t materialize.

The notable exception is Matthew Knies, who has 18 goals and 31 points in 47 appearances this campaign, but even that is about to go away given that this is the last season of his entry-level contract. Outside of him and the Big Four, no Maple Leafs player has reached the 15-goal or 25-point mark.

That also makes them particularly vulnerable to absences, such as the current one by Tavares. It does have to be said that Toronto did fairly well without Matthews during stretches of the campaign, but that was due to strong goaltending rather than other forwards filling the void. In Toronto’s first stint without Matthews from Nov. 5-27, the team went 7-2-0 despite averaging just 2.89 goals per game. Toronto was a mixed 3-3-0 during Matthews second absence from Dec. 21-Jan. 2 and once again managed just 2.83 goals per game.

That strong goaltending has been the backbone of the Maple Leafs this campaign, but we’ve seen vulnerability there since Dec. 14 with Toronto allowing 3.32 goals per game. It’s not coincidental that the Maple Leafs’ dip in goaltending is what’s made Toronto’s underwhelming offense -- something that’s nothing new this campaign -- gain attention. A lot can be forgiven or ignored as long as the team collectively is winning. It’s also not coincidental that Dec. 14 to present covers Toronto’s span without Stolarz, who had been terrific before getting hurt with a 9-5-2 record, 2.15 GAA and .927 save percentage in 17 appearances.

When Stolarz comes back, perhaps he’ll resume his dominant play, and Toronto’s mediocre scoring will once again seem acceptable. Once thing this stretch has highlighted, though: The Maple Leafs need him. Unlike some older versions of the Maple Leafs who were driven by offense, this team hasn’t consistently shown an ability to impress when not backed up by great goaltending.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs TOR, Thu vs COL, Sat vs SEA)

The Flames will wrap up their schedule before the 4 Nations Face-Off with a trio of home games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, Colorado on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday. It’s fairly tough competition, but I wanted to highlight them anyway to discuss the trade that sent Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier and two draft picks (2025 second rounder, 2028 seventh rounder) in exchange for Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee.

In terms of what Calgary gave up, the 23-year-old Pelletier is a former first-round pick, but hasn’t developed into a top six forward yet, supplying four goals and 11 points in 24 outings this season before the trade. Meanwhile, Kuzmenko is a former 39-goal scorer, but he’s struggled to do much of anything with the Flames in 2024-25, collecting four goals and 15 points in 37 outings. In other words, the Flyers got some interesting pieces in this trade, but Calgary isn’t losing assets that were likely to help the squad in the short term.

The best piece Calgary got in exchange for that was Frost, who has 11 goals and 25 points in 49 appearances in 2024-25 after recording 41 and 46 points in 2023-24 and 2022-23, respectively. He’s a solid third-line center who looks fine on the draw with a 51.6 winning percentage this year. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund will probably play ahead of Frost up the middle, and when Connor Zary (knee) comes back, Zary might shift to the wing to play alongside the newly acquired Flyers center.

Frost isn’t likely to turn heads, but he should be a nice secondary scorer for a team struggling to find the back of the net (2.68 goals per game). The only potential sticking point is Frost couldn’t complete Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to New Jersey, which might indicate he’s dealing with an injury. It’s probably nothing serious if the Flames pulled the trigger on this trade, but perhaps it will delay his debut with the Flames.

When it comes to Farabee, he’s another middle-six forward. The 24-year-old did look like he was on track to become more than that last campaign when he supplied 22 goals and 50 points in 82 games, but he’s regressed this year with eight goals and 19 points in 50 outings. Perhaps a fresh start with Calgary will do him some good, but he’ll probably begin his stint with Calgary on the third line with Frost (assuming Frost is healthy).

For the 25-18-7 Flames, the question is if these moves are enough to win them a playoff spot. The team is still very dependent on Dustin Wolf to be stellar in goal -- his 19-8-2 record, 2.51 GAA and .917 save percentage in 29 appearances is a big part of the reason Calgary’s in this position -- but this should at least give him a bit more goal support.

Chicago Blackhawks (Wed vs EDM, Fri vs NSH, Sat @ STL)

The Blackhawks will get to rest up early this week before hosting the Oilers on Wednesday and Predators on Friday. Chicago will then travel to St. Louis for a clash Saturday.

In most cases, I’d label the 18-24-7 Predators and 23-24-4 Blues are favorable matchups, but we’re talking about Chicago…so that doesn’t really work. Chicago is 16-30-5, giving the franchise good odds of getting a top two pick for the third straight campaign. The silver lining is that sets the stage for the Blackhawks to have an amazing core to build around, but in the meantime, Connor Bedard is burning the second year of his entry-level contract on a team that’s not giving him much to work with.

Not that Bedard is putting up Connor McDavid-like numbers, but the Blackhawks sophomore is doing his part with 14 goals and 44 points in 50 games. There’s only so much he can do when only one other player on the team, Teuvo Teravainen, has more than 30 points. Chicago also recently dealt Taylor Hall to Carolina, and while he wasn’t living up to expectations with the Blackhawks, his nine goals and 24 points in 46 outings was still good enough to rank fifth among forwards in Chicago’s scoring race before the trade.

Ryan Donato, who ranks third with 29 points (15 goals) in 49 outings, might be gone soon too. The 28-year-old is in the final season of his two-year, $4 million contract, so it’s fair to believe Chicago will jump at the opportunity to move him for a pick or prospect.

Seth Jones, who is only in the third season of his eight-year, $76 million contract, is likely to stay, though. That contract hasn’t looked great for Chicago and with the benefit of hindsight, the timing was awkward given the Blackhawks’ performance over the life of it. However, Jones has his moments, and he’s going through one of them. The 30-year-old blueliner has recorded at least a point in each of his past seven appearances, giving him two goals and 10 points in that span. If you’re looking for someone who will provide value this week in Chicago outside of Bedard, Jones is your best bet.

Los Angeles Kings (Wed vs MTL, Fri vs DAL, Sat vs ANA)

The Kings will spend the week at home, facing Montreal, Dallas and Anaheim on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, respectively. They’ll try to enter the break on a positive note after going 2-7-1 from Jan. 11-30.

Los Angeles’ recent slump is due in large part to a lack of scoring. The Kings have managed three or more goals just once in that 10-game span. Anze Kopitar has been noticeably quiet. The 37-year-old is having a great campaign overall with 12 goals and 43 points through 49 appearances, but he’s supplied just four assists over his past 13 outings. It should just be a matter of time before the veteran gets going again, but perhaps fantasy managers should consider benching him until that time comes.

Phillip Danault has left plenty to be desired too after collecting only two points (one goal) across his last 11 games. He’s now on pace to record just 38 points this season, which would make it the first time he’s ever finished below the 40-point mark in a season where he’s logged at least 70 games.

Obviously, the slump has skewed the scoring pace downward, but there are areas of concern beyond that. Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of his game is his complete lack of power-play production. He had nine points with the man advantage last season and a career-high 20 in 2022-23, but he still hasn’t found the scoresheet on the power play this campaign. To make matters worse for him, with Drew Doughty back, Danault might find himself shifting out of the power-play makeup entirely.

Speaking of Doughty, he made his season debut following a knee injury without any sort of time management to ease him back in. He logged 23:51 of ice time Wednesday and another 27:43 the very next day. He didn’t get any points over his first two contests, but the Kings were shutout of back-to-back games, so that’s less of a Doughty thing and more of a byproduct of the team’s overall slump.

Los Angeles is a good enough team to overcome its recent struggles, and Doughty should be an effective defender the rest of the way. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him collect 15-20 points over what’s left of the campaign.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ SJS, Wed @ LAK, Sat vs NJD, Sun vs TBL)

The Canadiens are one of just a handful of squads set to play four games next week. They’ll start on the road with contests in San Jose on Tuesday and Los Angeles on Wednesday. Afterward, Montreal will host the Devils on Saturday and the Lightning on Sunday.

The Canadiens battled their way back in the playoff conversation by going 13-3-1 from Dec. 17-Jan. 21, but some of that momentum has been lost after dropping their past four games (0-3-1). Unfortunately, Jakub Dobes has lost some of his initial magic. He burst onto the scene by stopping 103 of 107 shots (.963 save percentage) across his first four starts -- all wins -- but he’s allowed at least three goals in each of his past three outings.

The 23-year-old is a promising netminder who has a 2.44 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 14 AHL appearances this season, but he’s not presently one of the best goaltenders in the world. A drop off from his hot start isn’t shocking and you similarly shouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to work his way back from it. He should average out to be a pretty decent rookie for the Canadiens in the second half of the campaign, but it would be too much to hope for Dobes to drag Montreal into the playoffs.

If the Canadiens are going to feature in the postseason, it will probably need to be the offense leading the charge. Patrik Laine has slumped recently too, though, being held off the scoresheet in each of his past three outings. Laine tends to be a very streaky scorer who sometimes seems unstoppable and on other occasions is a nonfactor. If he’s on your team, you have to work around these cold patches. Benching him wouldn’t be the worst idea in the short term but put him right back into the mix the second he finds the back of the net because one goal from him often kicks off a new hot streak.

When Laine starts going again, it should also help Lane Hutson, who is on a four-game scoring drought. Hutson isn’t solely dependent on Laine for offense, but it’s fair to say that the two have found chemistry, especially with the man advantage, so what’s good for one is often good for the other.

Hutson is also just one point shy of 40. The last time the Canadiens had a rookie defenseman hit that milestone was 1984-85 when Chris Chelios and Tom Kurvers surpassed that mark. The only other rookie blueliner to ever reach that milestone in franchise history was Guy Lapointe in 1970-71.

Ottawa Senators (Mon @ NSH, Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TBL, Sat @ FLA)

During a busier week, I wouldn’t be highlighting the Senators because they have a rather tough schedule, but because they’re one of the rare squads set to play in four games, I’ll feature them anyway. The Senators will be on the road all week, starting in Nashville on Monday before playing two games in Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Thursday. Ottawa will then conclude the week in Florida on Saturday.

In contrast to the Canadiens, Ottawa has won its last three games, bringing the Senators up to an 8-2-1 record dating back to Jan. 11. That’s propelled Ottawa to the third spot in the Atlantic Division, just four points behind Toronto and five shy of Florida.

If you had suggested at the beginning of the campaign that this would be the Senators’ position, many would have assumed that it was a sign that Linus Ullmark had worked out superbly, and while the goaltender does have an impressive 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage, he’s been limited to 23 outings due to injury and hasn’t played since Dec. 22.

Even with him gone, though, goaltending hasn’t been an issue. Leevi Merilainen has looked fantastic, posting a 7-3-1 record, 2.19 GAA and .921 save percentage in 11 appearances. Although Anton Forsberg hasn’t been nearly as effective overall, he’s done his part recently too with a 3-1-0 record, 2.19 GAA and a .922 save percentage over his last five outings.

Ullmark is close to returning, so it will be interesting to see what Ottawa does next. The path of least resistance would be to send Merilainen back to the minors because he’s waiver-exempt. It feels wrong to demote a goaltender who has been doing this good, but you also need to keep in mind that he’s 22 years old. He might not get many starts in a scenario where all three goaltenders are healthy, so it’s probably better for his development if he’s with AHL Belleville and playing regularly.

That scenario assumes Forsberg can at least do adequately as the backup. He’s done well lately but still hasn’t been great overall, posting a 2.87 GAA and an .893 save percentage across 19 outings in 2024-25. If he starts struggling again, then Ottawa could push him to the side. At the very least, Forsberg has less job security now than he had at the beginning of the campaign.

Perhaps the Senators will consider seeing if there is a taker for Forsberg on the trade market. There might not be much demand for him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s an avenue they’ve explored. Whatever consideration they gave to the possibility of trading Claude Giroux is probably over, though. The 37-year-old is in the final year of his contract, so it would have made sense to move him before the Senators got hot, but now that a playoff berth is looking realistic, there’s little reason to move one of their top six forwards, so fans of other contenders can likely cross him off their wish list.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs OTT, Sat @ DET, Sun @ MTL)

Ottawa has surpassed Tampa Bay in the standing, but the Lightning will have an opportunity to reclaim their spot. As noted above, Tampa Bay is set to host the Senators on Tuesday and Thursday. After those two key games, Tampa Bay will hit the road, playing in Detroit on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday.

It might be a bit much to say Tampa Bay is slumping -- the Lightning earned a 3-0 win over LA on Thursday -- but at the least, the results have been mild recently. Dating back to Dec. 29, Tampa Bay has a record of 7-9-1.

The Lightning have scored just 2.47 goals per game during that 17-game stretch, so it’s fair to say offense has been at the heart of the problem. That’s despite Nikita Kucherov providing an impressive seven goals and 22 points in that span.

However, a lot of other players are a step below what they’re capable of producing. Kucherov’s typical linemates, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point aren’t enduring a full-blown drought, but they’re usually better than the 13 and 10 points, respectively, they’ve collected over the past 17 games. Brandon Hagel (six goals, 14 points) and Victor Hedman (three goals, 12 points) have largely held their own over that stretch too, but their overall scoring pace has declined relative to what it was before Dec. 29.

Taken on their own, the dip of any of those four high-end producers wouldn’t be a big deal, but to have all four of them drop at the same time is noteworthy. That’s compounded by the more significant decline Anthony Cirelli has suffered. After averaging a point-per-game through his first 32 outings (14 goals, 18 assists), he’s managed just two goals and seven points across his past 17 appearances.

Let’s look at this another way: Of Tampa Bay’s top nine scorers through Dec. 28, only one, Darren Raddysh, has seen his point-per-game pace increase over Tampa Bay’s last 17 games. Meanwhile, seven of the nine have a point-per-game pace from Dec. 29-Jan. 30 that’s at least 26 basis points less than it was from the start of the campaign through Dec. 28. Even Kucherov, who as seen a significant decline between those two stretches -- 1.71 PPG compared to 1.29 PPG.

So, it’s not a one player problem. The team collectively has cooled, and there aren’t players outside of that core who have stepped up to fill the void.

Utah HC (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ CAR, Sun @ WSH)

Utah has a busy week ahead of it. The Hockey Club will host the Flyers on Tuesday before hitting the road with clashes in Columbus on Thursday, Carolina on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

This has nothing to do with fantasy hockey, but I got to note that Utah will apparently not be able to use the nickname Yeti or Yetis, per The Salt Lake Tribune. That leaves the finalists as the Utah Mammoth, Utah Outlaws or sticking with Utah Hockey Club. I’ll be honest, I don’t like any of those options, but a good logo and time can cause branding to grow on people.

I just hope they don’t stick with Hockey Club. As a placeholder, I get it, and I understand it’s a perfectly common name in other sports -- as someone from Toronto, Toronto FC immediately jumps to mind, and that’s one of many MLS teams using FC. However, to me, Hockey Club feels like the absence of identity rather than an identity in and of itself. At the end of the day, though, it’s not for me to decide. The fans of the team are what matter here, but if I was picking, that would be last on my list.

Clayton Keller jerseys should sell regardless. He certainly is playing well enough to deserve it. He has 18 goals and 54 points in 49 appearances, and Keller’s been consistent too, not being held off the scoresheet for more than two games in a row this campaign.

Logan Cooley is sure to help define the Utah franchise too. The 20-year-old sophomore is enjoying a breakout campaign with 15 goals and 43 points in 50 appearances. However, Utah will have to get along without him for a while because he suffered a lower-body injury Wednesday and is regarded as being out indefinitely. That’s on top of the absence of Dylan Guenther (lower body), who has 16 goals and 34 points in 40 outings, but hasn’t played since Jan. 8.

With both of them gone, Josh Doan seems set to serve in a top six capacity and the first power-play unit. He hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far this campaign, collecting just two goals and five points in 19 outings, but he does still have upside and is worth keeping an eye on.

We might also see Matias Maccelli get a fresh opportunity. Maccelli has averaged just 13:58 of ice time this campaign and was even a healthy scratch Wednesday, but with Cooley out, Maccelli could find himself on the second unit. Maccelli has just 17 points (eight goals) in 48 outings this campaign, but he had 49 points in 2022-23 and 57 points last season, so a comeback isn’t out of the question.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ NYI, Thu @ NJD, Sat 2 BOS)

Vegas will be on the road next week, playing against the Islanders on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday and Boston on Saturday. All of those adversaries are in the mix for a playoff spot, but only the Devils are a safe bet to make the postseason at this time.

Vegas seems all-but certain to make the playoffs too given its 31-15-6 record, but the Golden Knights have faltered recently, going 3-6-3 over their past 12 games. Vegas, which had been doing fairly well on the injury front, also got some bad news there. William Karlsson (lower body) has missed the past five games and isn’t close to returning. Cole Schwindt (lower body) will probably be out for a while too.

The Golden Knights attempted to help fill that void by inking Brandon Saad to a one-year, $1.5 million contract. Saad was an unrestricted free agent because he and the Blues mutually agreed to terminate what was left on his remaining on his five-year, $22.5 million contract, which would have run through 2025-26. Even after signing that deal with Vegas, Saad has cost himself millions of dollars by agreeing to walk away from his old deal, but that also highlights how much value he puts on playing in the NHL.

The Blues waived him Tuesday and he cleared because no team wanted his old $4.5 million cap hit. Saad could have simply reported to the minors and collected his paycheck, but the 32-year-old instead took this path, which led him to a fresh opportunity with Vegas.

Although he hasn’t been terribly productive this campaign, recording seven goals and 16 points in 43 outings with St. Louis, he can be an effective middle-six winger. Vegas will likely give him an opportunity to play on the third unit, perhaps alongside Raphael Lavoie and Nicolas Roy. Saad might also get a look on the second power-play unit, but that’s far from certain.

I wouldn’t expect big things from Saad, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he proves to be serviceable with his new team. He also might end up doing a little better when Karlsson returns -- it's entirely feasible Saad and Karlsson will end up playing together when that happens with Roy shifting to the fourth line.

One player Saad is less likely to play with is Tomas Hertl, which is a shame for Saad because Hertl is red hot. The 31-year-old is on an 11-game scoring streak in which he’s provided nine goals and 15 points. Funny enough, he has a neutral plus/minus, even during that terrific stretch, keeping him at a team-worst minus-10 overall. Hertl looks more appealing in terms of possession stats -- his 5v5 relative Corsi and Fenwick are plus-1.8 and plus-4.0, respectively, which suggests the team performs better when he’s on the ice -- but it seems plus/minus is destined to be the one area where he underperforms.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Goaltending issues – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 18 Jan 2025 16:22:53 +0000

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 14: San Jose Sharks goaltender Alexandar Georgiev (40) doesn’t see a rebound in front of him during the game between the Detroit Red Wings and the San Jose Sharks Tuesday January 14, 2025 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

When you’re early in a season, there is always the fear of overreacting to small sample sizes, but sometimes early success or failure really is an indication of what’s to come. That holds true when it comes to two goaltenders who struggled in the opening weeks of the 2024-25 campaign -- Tristan Jarry and Alexandar Georgiev.

Jarry and Georgiev started in the Penguins’ and Avalanche’s season opener, respectively, but neither is even on that team anymore and a failure in between the pipes is the cause in both cases. Georgiev had a disastrous start, going 0-3-0 with a 5.79 GAA and an .802 save percentage across his first four games. He didn’t even post a start in which he allowed fewer than three goals until Nov. 7. In the end, he had an 8-7-0 record, 3.38 GAA and .874 save percentage in 18 outings before the Avalanche cut him loose, packaging him with Nikolai Kovalenko and two picks to get Mackenzie Blackwood from San Jose.

We can’t fully judge the trade yet until we know what becomes of those draft picks -- it will take a while because it’s a 2025 fifth-round selection and a 2026 second-round pick that went San Jose’s way -- but Colorado has plenty of reason to be happy. Blackwood has been brilliant between the pipes for the Avalanche, while Georgiev has done no better in San Jose than he had for Colorado in 2024-25.

Colorado’s situation can be considered lucky compared to Pittsburgh’s. Georgiev is in the final season of his three-year, $10.2 million contract anyway, so putting together an offering with some sweeteners to a rebuilding squad was perfectly feasible. Jarry is in just the second season of his five-year, $26.88 million contract, so finding a taker for him would be far more difficult.

No one wants that contract, and I can say that without any reservation because it’s been proven. Jarry was put on waivers Wednesday, giving the other 31 teams to take over his contract without giving up any assets and every squad passed on the offer. With that, Pittsburgh sent Jarry to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Similar to Georgiev, Jarry had a terrible start to the 2024-25 campaign, allowing 12 goals on 73 shots (.836 save percentage) over his first three appearances. Jarry then spent time in the minors on a conditioning stint and seemed to stabilize, posting a 2.16 GAA and a .926 save percentage in five AHL outings, but that didn’t translate into NHL success. After rejoining the Penguins, he allowed five goals on 38 shots to Columbus in his first start back and has continued to struggle, posting an 8-8-4 record, 3.31 GAA and .884 save percentage through 22 NHL outings this campaign.

Given that Jarry floundered even after a strong showing in the minors, it’d be hard to trust him even if he shows promise again in the AHL, especially because the 18-20-8 Penguins have very little margin for error left in their fight to stay in the Wild Card picture. There’s always the chance that injuries or a trade will change things, but for now, Pittsburgh seems set to spend the final months of the season with the goaltending duo of Alex Nedeljkovic and Joel Blomqvist, the latter of whom was called up in a move corresponding with Jarry’s demotion. Blomqvist is just 23 and someone the Penguins hope will be a significant part of the team long-term.

Speaking of the future, there are likely no good solutions when it comes to Jarry. Barring a comeback for the ages, the Penguins will likely look to part ways with him over the summer. They could try bundling draft picks to trade him but at $5.375 million through 2027-28 for a goaltender struggling to stay in the NHL, finding a suitor would be a challenge. Maybe a combination of the Penguins’ offering a really nice sweetener -- Penguins GM Kyle Dubas showed during his time in Toronto that he’d willingly sacrifice a first-round pick in exchange for cap savings -- and retaining some of his remaining salary would be enough to make it happen, but the Penguins would have to decide if they’re really that desperate to move him.

An alternative would be to buy out his remaining term, which would leave Pittsburgh with a cap hit of roughly $1.75 million in 2025-26 for a saving of roughly $3.63 million, but the dead cap would increase to $5.05 million in 2026-27 and be $4.55 million in 2027-28. The Penguins would then have $797,222 of dead cap space in each campaign from 2028-29 through 2030-31. In other words, they’d have a meaningful amount of extra wiggle room next season, but after that, any benefit to buying him out is basically over.

Still, the Penguins might be uniquely positioned for that arrangement to make sense. Erik Karlsson is 34, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are 37 and Evgeni Malkin is 38. Realistically, Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup window has already closed, but the franchise is reluctant to start a rebuild while the old guard is still playing good hockey. So how about this: The Penguins make the 2025-26 the last dance with this group and then embrace the rebuild. Yes, Crosby and Karlsson are signed through 2026-27 and Letang through 2027-28, but by that point, Crosby and Letang will be approaching 40 while Malkin, whose contract expires after 2025-26, might be gone. Unless something major changes, it seems hard to see how the Penguins will be competitive by that point anyway, so they’ll likely be in rebuild mode regardless of what they want.

So perhaps that’s what will end up happening. In the meantime, though, Jarry will report to the minors while Crosby and Co. will chase a return to the playoffs.

Boston Bruins (Mon vs SJS, Wed @ NJD, Thu vs OTT, Sat vs COL)

The Bruins stopped a six-game losing streak with a 4-3 overtime victory over Florida on Jan. 11 and put more distance on that slump by besting Tampa Bay 6-2 on Jan. 14. Still, the Bruins have no breathing room in the battle for a Wild Card spot, so they need to stay strong. They’ll host the Sharks on Monday, play in New Jersey on Wednesday and then spend their final two games of the week at home, facing Ottawa and Colorado on Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

With over half the campaign in the bank, Boston is still searching for offense up the middle. Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha kept the Bruins afloat in that regard last season, providing 60 and 59 points, respectively, but Boston believed it could do even better by signing Elias Lindholm to a massive seven-year, $54.25 million contract.

That hasn’t worked out. Lindholm has just seven goals and 22 points in 46 appearances this year. What makes that more troubling is it comes after he was limited to 15 goals and 44 points in 75 outings in 2023-24. Boston clearly felt that down campaign was an anomaly for Lindholm, who has surpassed the 60-point milestone on three occasions, but perhaps the back half of his career won’t be filled with offensive accomplishments.

Making matters worse is the lackluster production from Zacha (10 goals, 24 points) and Coyle (10 goals, 15 points) this campaign. At least Brad Marchand (16 goals, 35 points) and David Pastrnak (20 goals, 48 points) are still doing well, but the Bruins’ scoring depth beyond that is looking rather bad.

Although it would be awkward to add yet another center when Coyle, Zacha and Lindholm consume a collective $17.75 million in cap space, that might be the play that would improve the Bruins the most. Then again, perhaps the Bruins won’t be buyers at the deadline.

“We’ll see where we’re at,” Bruins president Cam Neely recently said, per Amalie Benjamin of NHL.com. “I think right now, we’ve got to look at two paths: one that we’re buying and one that we may be retooling a little bit.”

In other words, these next few weeks are all the more important. Perhaps that will provide Boston with extra motivation, especially from the team’s core.

Carolina Hurricanes (Mon @ CHI, Tue @ DAL, Thu vs CBJ, Sat @ NYI)

The Hurricanes got off to a 20-10-1 start but went just 6-6-2 from Dec. 20-Jan. 15, so they have some work to do. They’ll start on the road next week with matches in Chicago on Monday and Dallas on Tuesday before returning home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday. The Hurricanes will conclude the week with a road tilt versus the Islanders.

Carolina got some good news with the activation of Frederik Andersen (knee) off injured reserve. Although Andersen started the campaign with a 3-1-0 record, 1.49 GAA and .941 save percentage in four outings, he hasn’t played since Oct. 26. Rust might be a factor, but he still should have the edge for the starting gig ahead of Pyotr Kochetkov, who has a 16-9-2 record, 2.54 GAA and .901 save percentage in 28 appearances. It seems extremely likely that Kochetkov will see his workload diminish but given Andersen’s age (35) and injury history, Carolina might hesitate to lean on him too much even if he produces good results. Despite the Hurricanes’ mediocre play of late, Carolina’s position is still strong enough to prioritize making sure Andersen will be optimal for the playoffs.

Andersen isn’t the only veteran of importance for the team. The 36-year-old Jordan Staal is a valued member too, though the team captain’s contributions typically aren’t in the offensive zone. One notable exception to that was from Jan. 5-10 -- a stretch in which Staal collected five goals and eight points over four games. That stretch included a hat trick on Jan. 9, the fifth of his career and second since joining Carolina in 2012.

The good times are probably over, though. He had no points and no shots for Carolina on Jan. 12 and Jan. 15, so if you picked him up for the hot streak, it’s time to move on. On the plus side, Brent Burns is still hot. He has five assists over his past five appearances and nine points (two goals) across his last 11 outings. Burns has taken a step back offensively in 2024-25, largely due to his diminished power-play role, but his recent success has pushed him up to four goals and 18 points in 45 outings in 2024-25. Who knows, maybe he’ll have a strong second half, though I’d feel more confident about suggesting that if he was on the top power-play unit. As it is, Burns has just one assist with the man advantage this season, down from 20 power-play points in 2023-24.

Minnesota Wild (Mon @ COL, Thu vs UTA, Sat vs CGY, Sun @ CHI)

The Wild are enduring about as close as they get to a cold spell with three defeats over their past four games, dropping them to 27-14-4. Things won’t get any easier Monday in Colorado, but the rest of the week looks favorable. Minnesota will host Utah on Thursday, Calgary on Saturday and play in Chicago on Sunday.

The Wild's biggest issue is the absence of star forward Kirill Kaprizov (lower body). He was moved to long-term injured reserve Thursday, and although it’s retroactive to Dec. 23, they probably wouldn’t have done that if he was expected back soon. Minnesota will also miss Marcus Johansson (head) next week after sustaining the injury Wednesday.

Those absences have opened the door for Liam Ohgren, who was recalled from AHL Iowa on Thursday and will presumably play regularly next week. The 20-year-old was taken with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft and has shown promise in the AHL, supplying 12 goals and 23 points in 25 outings this season. He hasn’t recorded a point in eight games with Minnesota in 2024-25, but he’s also averaged just 9:53 of ice time over that stretch. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays a bigger role than he did during his stint in October, both because he’s gotten some seasoning in the minors and the fact that Kaprizov and Johansson were eating big minutes.

Then again, Jakub Lauko is also in the mix. He hasn’t played since Dec. 14 due to a lower-body injury, but he’s off IR now, setting the stage for his return. Before the injury, he had two goals and four points across 24 appearances with the Wild in 2024-25 while averaging just 10:00. Lauko is more of a gritty forward without Ohgren’s offensive upside, but perhaps that’s what the Wild want to help fill out the minutes lost, especially given Lauko’s edge in NHL experience.

That aside, Minnesota has to be happy that Ryan Hartman has stepped up in the face of those injuries, providing three goals and seven points across his past eight appearances, especially after struggling up to that point with four goals and seven points across his past 32 outings. Hartman hasn’t seen consistent use on the power play in 2024-25, but his recent play might lead to Minnesota reevaluating that. Although he hasn’t come close to replicating his 34-goal, 65-point showing in 2021-22 since that campaign, Hartman can still be an effective secondary scorer under the right circumstances and did provide 10 power-play points -- 45 overall -- in 2023-24.

Nashville Predators (Tue vs SJS, Thu @ SJS, Sat @ ANA)

This has been a miserable season for the Predators, but they’ve won their last two games and do have some favorable matchups ahead. They’ll play a home-and-away series against San Jose on Tuesday and Thursday before facing the Ducks in Anaheim on Saturday.

There’s not much in the way of silver linings for Nashville this campaign, but at least Steven Stamkos has gotten better as he’s settled in with the club. He has an impressive 11 goals and 21 points across his past 26 appearances, a stark change from his opening eight games in which he was limited to just one point (a goal). There were plenty of assessments that Tampa Bay was right to cut him loose when the squad did, and while the Lightning certainly have to be happy with how things are working out with Jake Guentzel, it seems Stamkos has something left in the tank.

Jonathan Marchessault has also hit his stride. He had five goals and 13 points over his first 28 outings with the Predators, but he’s been one of the league’s top players dating back to Dec. 10 with nine goals and 20 points across 16 games.

That begs the question, though: If Nashville’s big free-agent signings are paying off after all, then why is Nashville still just 15-22-7? Sure, the Predators have looked better from Dec. 12 onward with an 8-6-1 record, but even that stretch doesn’t align with the team’s high offseason expectations.

Part of the problem is secondary scoring. In addition to Stamkos and Marchessault, the Predators do have Filip Forsberg (13 goals, 38 points), Ryan O’Reilly (13 goals, 26 points) and defenseman Roman Josi (eight goals, 30 points), but no one else has reached the 20-point mark. That gives Nashville five players who have passed that milestone while the average team has 7.17. The average team also has 5.56 players with at least 10 goals while Nashville has four.

The fall of Gustav Nyquist, who recorded 75 points last campaign but has just 18 points (seven goals) in 43 appearances in 2024-25, is a big factor in that, and unlike Stamkos and Marchessault, Nyquist doesn’t seem to be getting meaningfully better as the campaign progresses. It’d also have been nice if the 22-year-old Luke Evangelista built off his 2023-24 39-point showing, but instead, he has four goals and 14 points in 39 appearances this season.

The other factor is the defense. Nashville is tied for 21st in xGA/60 with 3.07, per Moneypuck. Juuse Saros has held his own with a plus-2.5 goals saved above expected, but that just suggests he’s been average rather than exceptional and on a team with as leaky a defense as the Predators’, they really do need the Saros of old. Instead, the current version is 10-18-6 with a 2.75 GAA and a .903 save percentage. He continues to be consistent too, supplying a 4-5-1 record, 2.80 GAA and .889 save percentage across his past 10 games.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ NYR, Thu @ BOS, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs UTA)

Ottawa is 22-18-4 and in the mix for a playoff spot, but the Senators have to be nervous given the recent success enjoyed by Detroit and Montreal. The pressure is on Ottawa going into its road tilts against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Bruins on Thursday. The Senators will then play in Toronto on Saturday and Utah on Sunday.

Ottawa’s forwards have been going through a quiet stretch with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk each recording three or fewer points over Ottawa’s past four games. Shane Pinto is enjoying some success, though, supplying two goals and four points over his past four games.

Pinto hasn’t been great overall in 2024-25 with eight goals and 14 points in 36 appearances. He showed offensive potential over his previous two campaigns with 29 goals and 62 points across 123 outings, but the 24-year-old hasn’t taken the next step yet, despite averaging a healthy 17:40 of ice time in 2024-25.

It’d help if he shot the puck more. He’s averaging just 6.1 shots/60, down from 8.9 last year, which is why he’s been limited to eight markers despite a healthy 12.3 shooting percentage (his career average is 10.9). He’s showing no signs of doing that, though, managing just six shots over his past four games. Unless that changes, Pinto likely won’t be a long-term play.

Things have looked better in goal, though. Linus Ullmark (back) is still out and probably won’t return next week, but his continued absence has been made tolerable by the rise of Leevi Merilainen. The 22-year-old rookie has a 5-2-1 record, 1.84 GAA and .930 save percentage in eight outings in 2024-25. He’s made four consecutive starts for Ottawa, allowing a mere three goals on 106 shots (.972 save percentage).

It’s inevitable that he’s going to have bad games, but if his overall level of play remains high, then Ottawa will have a near impossible time justifying sending him down after Ullmark returns. Instead, Anton Forsberg, who is 4-8-1 with a 3.10 GAA and an .883 save percentage, might find himself on waivers, which would allow Ottawa to go with an Ullmark-Merilainen combo. There’s also a chance that Forsberg might be traded or even claimed because he’s in the final season of a three-year, $8.25 million deal, which makes him a tolerable rental from a cap perspective but given his lackluster play over the past three years (30-31-3, 3.21 GAA, .894 save percentage), the other team would need to be fairly desperate.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon @ TOR, Tue @ MTL, Fri @ CHI, Sat @ DET)

Tampa Bay has played in just 43 games through Friday’s action, the second least in the league, so the Lightning are going to have a bit of a busier schedule than most for the remainder of the campaign. The Lightning will experience that in the upcoming week during their four-game road trip with stops in Toronto on Monday, Montreal on Tuesday, Chicago on Friday and Detroit on Saturday.

The Lightning are fortunate to be healthy in goal and up front, but blueliner Erik Cernak did sustain an undisclosed injury Thursday and is day-to-day as of the time of writing. Tampa Bay was already missing J.J. Moser (lower body), so that brings Tampa Bay down to five healthy blueliners if Cernak is unavailable.

Nick Perbix might see an increase in playing time from his season average of 15:28. He has four goals, 11 points, 14 PIM, 28 hits and 40 blocks in 38 appearances in 2024-25, so he’s only a factor in the deepest of fantasy leagues. The 23-year-old Emil Lilleberg getting a bigger role would be more interesting. Lilleberg ranks second among all defensemen with 72 PIM, and he has 71 hits. If an increase in playing time leads to even a modest uptick in offensive production -- he has nine assists in 40 appearances while averaging 15:43 of ice time -- then that would be interesting in leagues that also use penalty minutes.

Regardless of what happens on defense, though, Tampa Bay has a forward group to be envious of. The Lightning have five forwards with 37 or more points compared to the league average of 1.59. There’s also Nick Paul, who is a solid secondary scorer with 11 goals and 25 points in 37 appearances. He’s on a bit of a roll right now with two goals and five points over his past six games, so he’s worth consideration as a short-term grab, especially given Tampa Bay’s packed upcoming lineup.

Meanwhile, Nikita Kucherov remains as dominant as ever. He’s on a seven-game scoring streak in which he’s provided three goals and 11 points, giving him 20 markers and 65 points in 41 outings overall. He ranks third in the scoring race behind Nathan MacKinnon (17 goals, 72 points) and Leon Draisaitl (31 goals, 67 points) and just ahead of Connor McDavid (20 goals, 64 points). It wouldn’t be surprising to see those four compete for the Art Ross Trophy for the remainder of the season.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs STL, Thu @ STL, Fri @ DAL, Sun vs FLA)

Vegas is cruising towards the playoffs with its 29-12-3 record, though it has hit a speed bump, dropping three of its past four games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see better results next week, though. The Golden Knights will start with a home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Thursday. Vegas will then play in Dallas on Friday and host the Panthers on Sunday.

I’m so used to the Golden Knights having injury problems, that it’s weird to see the team basically healthy. Lukas Cormier is on the season-opening injured reserve list, but he’ll probably be sent to the minors once he’s ready to return.

That gives us a glimpse of how this team assembles at full strength. Presently, the forward talent is spread out nicely. Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone make for a strong first line while Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson each center one of the other two scoring lines -- it's debatable which of those is second and which is third. Presently, Karlsson has Brett Howden on his wing while Hertl has Pavel Dorofeyev.

Then there’s the 23-year-old Cole Schwindt, who doesn’t have much of a role when everyone is healthy. He averaged just 8:24 of ice time from Dec. 19-Jan. 12 and typically doesn’t get consistent linemates. He was then a healthy scratch Tuesday but is projected to draw back into the lineup Friday with the 22-year-old Alexander Holtz resting instead. Holtz also doesn’t have a consistent role when the team is at full strength.

Nicolas Roy is technically the fourth center, but he’s playing more than that role implies, averaging 15:59 per game. He also brings more to the table offensively than someone with the “fourth-line center” label. He had 13 goals and 41 points in 70 outings in 2023-24 and is at six goals and 14 points across 33 appearances this season.

Combine that with the ability to utilize Noah Hanifin, Brayden McNabb, Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore as the squad’s top-four defensemen, and it’s not hard to see why this group is enjoying so much success. There aren’t any glaring needs that they even have going into the playoffs, though it can usually never hurt to have too much depth, so maybe Vegas will look to add a complementary piece or two as some injury insurance.

Winnipeg Jets (Mon @ UTA, Wed @ COL, Fri vs UTA, Sun vs CGY)

Winnipeg has won its past three games, bringing it up to 31-12-3 in 2024-25. That puts them on a 55-win pace, which would be the most in franchise history -- the Jets’ previous best was 52 in 2017-18 and 2023-24. We’ll see if the Jets can continue their smooth performance this campaign next week. They’ll play in Utah on Monday and Colorado on Wednesday before returning home to host Utah on Friday and the Flames on Sunday.

Connor Hellebuyck remains the backbone of their success. He’s allowed just four goals on 93 shots (.957 save percentage) over his past four starts and now has a 28-6-2 record, 1.97 GAA and .929 save percentage in 36 outings. Like the Jets, it’s entirely feasible that he’ll surpass his career high in wins. His current best is 44, which he set in 2017-18. Assumingly, that wasn’t one of the two times he won the Vezina Trophy, finishing second that year to Pekka Rinne with both of those netminders getting similar results -- Hellebuyck was 44-11-9 with a 2.36 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 67 appearances while Rinne was 42-13-4 with a 2.31 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 59 starts.

This season, Hellebuyck is looking like a heavy favorite in the Vezina Trophy race. In addition to dominating the win category (the next best goaltender is Jake Oettinger with 22), he also leads in save percentage (Hellebuyck’s .929 narrowly beats Anthony Stolarz’s .927, though Stolarz has been limited to 17 starts due to injury) and GAA (his 1.97 tops Darcy Kuemper’s 2.06, and again, Hellebuyck has a huge edge in starts compared to Kuemper’s 22) among those with at least 10 appearances.

In a different year, I think there’d be a strong Hart argument to be made for Hellebuyck too, but that would require the top of the scoring leaderboard to be less impressive. We’re probably going to see one or more forwards top 120 points, so odds are one of them will get the Hart. Still, Hellebuyck’s dominance this campaign is remarkable.

We shouldn’t sell the offense short, though. The Jets do rank second in goals per game with 3.57. The top line of Kyle Connor (26 goals, 60 points), Mark Scheifele (27 goals, 53 points) and Gabriel Vilardi (19 goals, 41 points) have led the charge in that regard, but Nikolaj Ehlers’ contributions shouldn’t be overlooked either. He has 14 goals and 38 points across 37 outings in 2024-25, including five goals and 13 points in 13 games since returning from a lower-body injury. Ehlers numbers become more impressive when you consider he’s averaging a somewhat modest 15:37. No player has more points than Ehlers while averaging under 16 minutes (Jason Zucker is next with 33 points), and that’s despite Ehlers missing nine games due to his injury.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the playoff race – Teams with favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Mar 2024 14:07:22 +0000

Last week I touched on Detroit’s losing streak, but the Red Wings’ situation has since stabilized. The Red Wings have won three of their past four games and earned a 6-3 victory in a key contest against the Islanders on Thursday. The Red Wings (36-28-6) now have a three-point edge over Washington (33-26-9) in the battle for the second wild-card spot, though Washington has two games in hand, so Detroit still has no margin for error.

At this stage, it looks like the fight for the final playoff seed in the East will come down to Detroit and Washington, but the Islanders (29-25-15), New Jersey (34-32-5), Buffalo (33-33-5) and even Pittsburgh (30-29-9) all have an outside chance of squeaking into the playoffs. Would it be shocking if, say, the Penguins earned a postseason berth? Absolutely, but it’s at least a mathematic possibility at the time of writing.

The final wild-card slot in the Western Conference is slightly more secure. Vegas (37-25-7) has a four-point edge over St. Louis (37-30-3) and a five-point lead over Minnesota (34-28-8) despite playing in one game less than either team. The Golden Knights likely still need to be solid down the stretch to secure their playoff berth, but at least they have a bit of breathing room.

The Blues and Wild are Vegas’ only real competition, but there is still an outside chance of a Cinderella story involving Calgary (33-30-5) or Seattle (28-28-12).

The Golden Knights still also have a path to earn the third seed in the Pacific Division over Los Angeles (36-22-11), though I’d almost say it doesn’t matter. Getting the third seed would put the Golden Knights on track to face Edmonton in the first round instead of Winnipeg, Colorado, Dallas or Vancouver. All five of those potential adversaries are great, so Vegas will have a tough first round either as a wild-card team or as the third seed in the Pacific Division.

Either way, the battle for the last playoff spots should be fun.

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal (1) in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks on January 24, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Anaheim Ducks - TUE @ SEA, THU @ SEA, SAT @ EDM, SUN @ VAN (BTB)

Anaheim is set to play on the road all of next week. They have back-to-back contests against Seattle on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by games in Edmonton on Saturday and Vancouver on Sunday. It’s certainly not an easy schedule, especially on the back half, but the Ducks are one of the few teams scheduled to play four games, so they’re still worthy of mention.

Trevor Zegras hasn’t been in the lineup since Jan. 9 because of an ankle injury, but he has been able to resume practicing without restriction, which suggests that he’s close to returning. After exceeding the 60-point milestone in each of his previous two campaigns, he has just four goals and seven points in 20 outings this year. There’s a good chance he’ll at least be able to finish the year on a positive note, but regardless of what happens, it’s important you remember him for next season’s fantasy drafts. The 23-year-old forward should enjoy a comeback campaign, provided he gets better luck on the injury front.

The 2024-25 campaign should also be one of progress for Leo Carlsson, who has recorded nine goals and 24 points in 43 games as a rookie this season. In the meantime, though, he suffered a lower-body injury Thursday, so his status for next week’s contests is undetermined. If he can’t play then Isac Lundestrom might serve in a top-six capacity, but honestly rather than that be an opportunity for Lundestrom, it would just highlight the sorry state of the Ducks. The 24-year-old has just six points (four goals) in 34 contests this year and likely won’t do much offensively even if he moves up to the second line.

At least they have goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has done alright lately, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .916 save percentage over his past eight games. That’s worlds better than John Gibson’s 5.80 GAA (yes, really) and .833 save percentage in his past four outings. Given the disparity in their play, Dostal should get the majority of the remaining starts.

Buffalo Sabres – WED VS OTT, FRI VS NJD, SAT VS TOR (BTB)

The Sabres are likely to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive campaign, extending their record for the longest postseason drought in NHL history. However, they still have an outside shot of squeaking into the playoffs. In order to keep that hope alive, they’ll likely need to win all three of their contests against Ottawa on Wednesday, New Jersey on Friday and Toronto on Saturday. It’s a tall order, but at least the Sabres will have the home-ice advantage in all those games.

With Buffalo’s postseason hopes all but dashed, Jeff Skinner will likely have to wait even longer to make his first playoff appearance. The 31-year-old is approaching 1,000 career regular-season contests. This hasn’t been his best campaign, but Skinner has been alright with 24 goals and 45 points in 63 outings. He also earned his seventh career hat trick Monday when he led Buffalo in its 6-2 victory over Seattle.

Tage Thompson is surely hoping he won’t have to wait nearly as long as Skinner to get into the playoffs. However, if Thompson had played like he did in 2022-23 (47 goals, 94 points), perhaps the Sabres’ fortunes would have been different this campaign. Instead, he’s been alright, but not great with 21 goals and 43 points through 60 outings. The 27-year-old might end the season on a positive note, though. He’s on a four-game scoring streak in which Thompson has provided a goal and six points.

Meanwhile, Bowen Byram is just 22, but his name is already on the Cup thanks to his time with the Avalanche. Now a member of the Sabres, Byram is playing a prominent role and has taken advantage of that opportunity. He’s recorded three goals, six points, 17 blocks and 17 hits in eight contests while averaging 23:53 of ice time. Byram has even averaged a healthy 2:39 with the man advantage as a member of the Sabres, though the presence of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power means the fight for power-play ice time will always be fierce among Buffalo defensemen.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ ARI, THU @ PIT, SAT VS PIT

This will mark the Blue Jackets’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth. Nothing they do now will alter the fact that it’s been a rough campaign, but they can at least end things on a positive note. It helps that they’ll be facing other non-playoff teams next week – they’ll play in Arizona on Tuesday, in Pittsburgh on Thursday and then host the Penguins on Saturday.

Johnny Gaudreau isn’t the reason Columbus will be missing the playoffs, though it is true he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His 55 points (11 goals) through 69 outings, would mark the lowest point-per-game pace of his career if the season ended now. However, Gaudreau has contributed a goal and six points in his past four contests, so the stage is set for him to finish the campaign on a positive note.

The same might be true of Alexander Nylander, who has eight goals and 11 points in 13 contests since being acquired by Columbus from Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old forward was held off the scoresheet in his previous two games, and it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to wonder if this is the right time to jump ship, especially because he doesn’t have a track record of success beyond his recent stretch. Personally, I recommend waiting a little longer though to see if his production picks up again. Keep in mind, Nylander is being utilized on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit, which are roles that he hasn’t enjoyed for any noteworthy stretch until now, so there might be more to his production than a mere hot streak. I’m not saying that his new role has transformed him into a superstar, but he might still do well enough to be fantasy relevant the rest of the way.

Daniil Tarasov might have value going forward too. The 24-year-old has been subpar in 2023-24 with a 7-9-3 record, 3.20 GAA and .903 save percentage across 20 appearances, but he’s been far better dating back to Feb. 21, posting a 2.30 GAA and .934 save percentage over nine games. His strong play has led to the Blue Jackets increasingly using him over Elvis Merzlikins.

Ottawa Senators – WED @ BUF, THU VS CHI, SAT @ WPG

Ottawa will begin next week with a breather before playing in Buffalo on Wednesday. The Senators will then host Chicago on Thursday and play in Winnipeg on Saturday. Like Ottawa, the Sabres and Blackhawks are having campaigns and aren’t expected to make the playoffs (Chicago has been mathematically eliminated while Buffalo has just a fringe chance of a wild-card spot), so those are two winnable games.

Ottawa is in a four-way tie for 28th defensively with 3.59 goals per game despite having an xGA/60 of 2.94, which ties the Senators for 11th overall. Those two stats in combination suggest is Ottawa’s defense is underrated and has been made to look bad this year due to poor goaltending. A case could be made that Joonas Korpisalo has been this year’s worst starter, ranking last in Goals Saved Above Expected at minus-19.4. In terms of his base stats line, he has a 15-21-4 record, 3.37 GAA and .887 save percentage in 44 contests. While it would be an oversimplification to say that Ottawa isn’t making the playoffs because of Korpisalo, it is fair to say that his terrible play has been a key factor.

Unfortunately, it seems the Senators overvalued his strong 2022-23 campaign when they inked Korpisalo to a five-year contract. While he had a Goals Saved Above Expected of 12.7 last season, he finished in the negatives in each campaign from 2017-18 through 2021-22, so performing below average relative to the team in front of him appears to be the norm for Korpisalo rather than the exception. This is all to say that if you’re looking for the 29-year-old goaltender to rebound in 2024-25, you’re making a risky bet that likely won’t pay off.

Not that Anton Forsberg, who has a 12-12-0 record, 3.42 GAA and .885 save percentage in 25 outings in 2023-24, is good either. Forsberg is signed through 2024-25 at a cap hit of $2.75 million, so Ottawa might have this unfortunate duo again next year. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs in 2024-25 either.

That’s unfortunate for Claude Giroux, who is 36 years old and consequently running out of chances to make another run at the Cup. If the direction of the Senators has been weighing on him, though, he hasn’t let that bleed into his game. He’s still provided a goal and five points over his past six contests, giving him 19 goals and 58 points through 68 outings overall. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran finish the season on a high note. That should also be true of Brady Tkachuk, who has provided four goals and five points over his past four contests.

The goaltending clearly needs work, but with players like Giroux and Tkachuk leading the forward corps, at least that aspect of the Senators is strong.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ NYR, THU @ MTL, SAT VS CHI

The Flyers are set to play on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Canadiens on Thursday before hosting the Blackhawks on Saturday. While the Rangers are a tough adversary, Philadelphia has a golden chance to collect four points against Montreal and Chicago as it looks to secure its playoff spot.

The biggest story in Philadelphia is coach John Tortorella scratching Sean Couturier for the Flyers’ 4-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday and 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina on Thursday. This comes after a stretch in which Couturier registered just three assists and had a minus-13 rating over 14 games from Feb. 15-March 19. He also has only six points (one goal) in his last 23 contests, undoing his solid start to the campaign -- 30 points (10 markers) through his first 41 appearances.

Maybe this time off will allow him to reset and come back stronger. He’ll certainly be a player to watch closely next week because when Couturier’s at his best, he’s a strong top-line option.

In the meantime, Owen Tippett has been leading the Flyers’ attack. He has three goals and eight points over his past five games, bringing him up to 25 goals and 46 points through 66 outings this year. The 25-year-old is just two goals and three points shy of his career highs.

Morgan Frost is also on a five-game scoring streak, totaling three goals and seven points in that span. He hasn’t had an amazing campaign overall (12 goals and 38 points in 59 games), but the 24-year-old has been centering the top line and serving on the first power-play unit during Couturier’s absence. Given how well he’s done in that role, Frost might continue to feature prominently even after Couturier slides back into the lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CBJ, SAT @ CBJ

The Penguins have faded out of the playoff picture at this point and things aren’t going to get any easier when they host the Hurricanes on Tuesday. The silver lining is Pittsburgh does have a home-and-away series against the lowly Blue Jackets, which will take place Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Michael Bunting, who Pittsburgh acquired from Carolina in the Jake Guentzel trade, seems to be settling in with his new team. He’s on a three-game scoring streak and has recorded a point in four of his last five contests, totaling two goals and two assists in that span. He’s seeing time on the top power-play unit and alongside Evgeni Malkin at even strength, so Bunting seems set to have a solid finish to the campaign.

Bryan Rust is looking to finish on a high note too. He’s been limited to 48 games this season due to injury, but he has been effective when healthy with 21 goals and 41 points. The 31-year-old has done particularly well recently, providing three goals and five points across his last four contests.

Lastly, while it doesn’t have fantasy relevance, you might want to pay attention to Jeff Carter. The 39-year-old is dealing with an upper-body issue, but when he returns, he’ll likely be playing out the last games of his career. While it’s possible he’ll pursue a new contract once his present one expires this summer, he likely won’t find any takers. He’s been held to nine goals and 12 points in 61 outings this campaign. Still, Carter has had a storied career, scoring 440 goals in 1,310 career games and playing a significant role in Los Angeles’ Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014.

Seattle Kraken – TUE VS ANA, THU VS ANA, SAT VS DAL

Seattle will start the week with a pair of favorable home matchups against the lowly Ducks on Tuesday and Thursday. After that two-game series, the Kraken will host the Stars on Saturday.

Vince Dunn hasn’t played since March 4 due to an upper-body injury, and he doesn’t appear to be close to returning. He’s been a key offensive defenseman for the Kraken this campaign, providing 11 goals and 45 points in 57 games. Due to Dunn’s absence, Brian Dumoulin has seen an uptick in even-strength minutes, while Ryker Evans was summoned from AHL Coachella Valley and has received a power-play role.

Evans has done decently during Dunn’s absence, recording three assists -- all with the man advantage -- in the last seven games. He’s also played with a physical edge, accumulating eight PIM and 16 hits in the same span. Once Dunn returns, Evans might lose his spot in the lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to make those kinds of contributions until Dunn’s back.

Seattle’s forward corps hasn’t done great this campaign and Seattle’s attack has been particularly lackluster recently, totaling just five goals in four games from March 14-21. Still, Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a rare bright spot with a goal and three points during that stretch. He also has five goals and eight points over his last 11 contests to put his cold spell from Jan. 30-Feb. 24 (one assist in eight outings) well behind him.

As poor as the Kraken’s offense has been, Anaheim has done even worse, ranking 30th offensively with just 2.49 goals per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord split the two-game set against the Ducks, and both netminders would be a good play versus Anaheim.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ STL, TUE @ NAS, (BTB), THU @ WPG, SAT @ MIN

The Golden Knights are one of the few teams set to play four games next week, though they’ll be on the road for that stretch. They’ll play in St. Louis on Monday, Nashville on Tuesday, Winnipeg on Thursday and Minnesota on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but the Golden Knights’ hold on the second wild-card spot is loose, so they’ll need to find a way to win a good chunk of those contests.

Their pursuit of a playoff berth has been complicated by Adin Hill, who has struggled mightily with a 3.90 GAA and an .872 save percentage over his last seven games. By contrast, Logan Thompson has saved 41 of 43 shots (.953 save percentage) over his last two contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vegas pivot to Thompson, at least in the short term. Earlier in the campaign, the Golden Knights might have been more open to riding out Hill’s cold spell in the hopes that he’d rebound, but they don’t really have that luxury at this stage.

In terms of offense, it’s been defenseman Shea Theodore who has led the charge. The 28-year-old has collected 15 assists in 14 outings since returning from an upper-body injury. That’s propelled him to four goals and 33 points across 34 outings in 2023-24. Theodore has missed significant portions of the last two campaigns due to injury, but he would likely breach the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career if he manages to stay healthy next season.

Meanwhile, blueliner Noah Hanifin seems to be settling in fine with Vegas. He has four assists, a plus-3 rating, 10 blocks and 10 hits in seven contests since being acquired from the Flames. Hanifin’s also averaging 22:09 of ice time with Vegas, though he’s only on the second power-play unit, which limits his offensive potential a bit.

NHL: DADOUN – THE WEEK AHEAD (February 12th to February 18th) – Washington fading in playoff race and faces tough questions – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 10 Feb 2024 18:37:42 +0000

Early this season, Washington seemed to be able to manufacture wins despite not looking great on paper. The Capitals had a 17-9-4 record through Dec. 21, but at that time they had a minus-8 goal differential. Washington was doing fine defensively, ranking 10th with 2.73 goals allowed per game, but it was 30th offensively, averaging just 2.43 goals per contest. Washington compensated for that by having one of the league’s best records in one-goal games (10-1-4).

The question at the time was if Washington’s success was mere smoke and mirrors. At this point, it’s fair to say that it was. The Capitals are now 22-20-7. They’re seven points back in the Wild Card race, which might not sound like much, but it’s a mountain to climb this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, their goal differential has gotten even worse, dropping to minus-36.

If Washington can’t find a way to turn things around soon, then the Capitals will need to consider retooling. What would look like, though? Trading Alexander Ovechkin is almost certainly a nonstarter. He’s not having that strong of a season anyway (11 goals and 33 points in 46 games) and at the age of 38, teams might be reluctant to take on his $9.5 million cap hit through 2025-26. Even if he was playing well, though, he’s the face of the franchise and has a no-movement clause, so there would be a lot of barriers to moving him.

TJ Oshie? His $5.75 million cap hit through 2024-25 likely would give contenders pause too. The 37-year-old has just eight goals and 12 points through 32 contests. Tom Wilson agreed to a seven-year, $45.5 million contract in August, so Washington probably won’t trade him, and Dylan Strome is signed to a $5 million cap hit through 2027-28. Meanwhile, Nicklas Backstrom is on the long-term injured reserve and isn’t likely to play again this season while Evgeny Kuznetsov is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, so neither of them is likely to come up in serious trade conversations.

There are still a couple of players who might be dealt. Anthony Mantha’s 16 goals and 24 points in 45 outings isn’t good relative to his $5.7 million cap hit, but at least his contract ends at the end of this campaign, so there might be contenders willing to part with a pick for him if Washington retains half his remaining salary. Max Pacioretty has a goal and seven points in 14 contests since coming back from his Achilles injury. That’s not great, but there might still be a team interested in him as a secondary scorer and veteran presence.

Those kinds of moves won’t fundamentally change Washington, though, they’ll just leave the Capitals with minor consolation prizes for their lost season. At some point, though, Washington needs to decide if a larger rebuild is necessary. The Capitals are likely reluctant to go down that path while Ovechkin is still under contract, but the alternative might be added years of futility before finally beginning the process.

Anaheim Ducks – TUE @ MTL, THU @ OTT, SAT @ TOR

The Ducks will be in Canada next week, playing in Montreal on Tuesday, Ottawa on Thursday and Toronto on Saturday. The 26-15-8 Maple Leafs figure to be a tough adversary, but Montreal and Ottawa are far removed from the playoff picture.

Those upcoming two games against struggling opponents give Troy Terry an opportunity to extend his hot streak. The 26-year-old has recorded at least a point in six consecutive contests, totaling four goals and six assists. Adam Henrique has been on a run too, providing five goals and 14 points across his last 12 appearances, which gives him 15 goals and 33 points in 49 outings in 2023-24.

Pay special attention to Henrique because there’s a good chance he’ll get traded before the deadline. Granted, that’s not until March 8, but we’ve already seen a couple of major moves, so there’s no guarantee that teams looking to upgrade will wait before pulling the trigger. Especially with Henrique doing so well recently, Anaheim might be able to get a decent return for him. How that impacts Henrique remains to be seen. He’s averaging 17:16 of ice time with Anaheim, including 2:21 with the man advantage, and might not get that kind of role with a contender, which might hinder his fantasy value.

Another trade candidate with Anaheim is Jakob Silfverberg. The 33-year-old forward has struggled this campaign with just five goals and 13 points in 49 outings, but he’s shown some life recently, supplying three goals and five points over his last four appearances. It helps that he’s averaged 15:07 in that span, compared to 12:14 on the season.

Arizona Coyotes – MON @ PHI, WED VS MIN, FRI VS CAR, SUN @ COL

The Coyotes have a busy week ahead of them. It will start with a trip to Philadelphia on Monday, followed by a home stretch versus the Wild on Wednesday and Hurricanes on Friday. Finally, the Coyotes will head to Colorado to play the Avalanche on Sunday.

Although Arizona doesn’t have a back-to-back set next week, the busy schedule might still lead to Karel Vejmelka getting some work. He had a strong relief appearance Thursday, stopping the 28 Golden Knights shots he faced after Connor Ingram surrendered three goals on just six shots midway through the first frame. That strong performance is the exception, though. Vejmelka still has a 6-11-2 record, 3.33 GAA and .900 save percentage in 18 appearances in 2023-24. Ingram has been the better option with a 17-12-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .914 save percentage in 33 outings, but he’s now allowed at least three goals in each of his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Vejmelka if he can take advantage of it.

Someone else with an opening is Jack McBain. He’s been all over the lineup this season, but recently the 24-year-old has featured on the top unit alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. McBain isn’t much of an offensive threat, scoring just six goals and 15 points through 34 games, so don’t get too excited, but it of course helps to be working alongside players of that caliber.

Especially with Clayton Keller being hot at the moment. He has eight goals and 15 points over his past 12 contests, bringing him up to 21 tallies and 46 points across 49 games.

Boston Bruins – TUE VS TBL, THU VS SEA, SAT VS LAK

The Bruins get to stay in Boston next week and will host the Lightning on Tuesday, the Kraken on Thursday and the Kings on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but Seattle isn’t in a playoff position and LA has been slumping for the better part of two months, so the potential is there for the Bruins to have a strong run.

Some teams lack any particular player who has stood out recently. That’s almost never the case for the Bruins. You can count on David Pastrnak to put on a show and, most recently, he’s provided three goals and eight points in four contests. He continues to be one of the league’s biggest stars with 33 goals and 75 points through 51 outings.

One player who isn’t as much of a sure thing is Pavel Zacha, but he’s been clicking lately, providing two goals and six points over his active four-game scoring streak. That brings him up to 12 goals and 33 points in 47 appearances this season.

Meanwhile, Brad Marchand has been quickly climbing up the goal-scoring list. He’s found the back of the net 12 times over his past 15 contests, giving him 25 markers and 51 points in 51 games. That puts him on pace to reach the 40-goal milestone for the first time, but his current hot streak has skewed those numbers and he’s a safer bet to finish with around 35 tallies.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE @ BUF, THU @ NJD, SAT @BOS, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

As noted above, LA has struggled lately, posting a 3-8-6 record over its past 17 outings. The Kings will attempt to rebound during a road trip that will take them to Buffalo on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. Certainly not the easiest of schedules, but LA is one of the few teams set to play in four contests, so it’s still worthy of mention.

Maybe the Kings will get some help from Brandt Clarke, who was summoned from AHL Ontario on Thursday. He’s been fantastic in the minors, recording eight goals, 33 points and 35 PIM in 32 contests and figures to be a big part of LA’s long-term plans. It’s not clear what role he’ll have next week, but with the way things have been going for the Kings, they could stand to mix things up, and giving Clarke some responsibility would be one way to do that.

Alex Turcotte was also recalled Thursday. He had a goal and an assist in two games with LA during his previous stint and has recorded 24 points (seven goals) across 30 AHL appearances, so the 22-year-old might be helpful too.

Given the busy schedule, Cam Talbot is expected to get at least one opportunity to rebound over the next week. He had a 14-8-3 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage in 25 appearances through Jan. 2, but since then he’s lost his last seven contests while posting an ugly 4.62 GAA and .865 save percentage. He hasn’t played since Jan. 26, though, so perhaps the 36-year-old goaltender has had sufficient time off to step back and reset.

At the same time, David Rittich has done well, posting a 5-1-3 record, 2.09 GAA and .925 save percentage in 11 outings this season, which is part of the reason why he’s been able to wrestle the starting gig from Talbot. Even if Talbot rebounds, there’s a chance Rittich will stay busy, perhaps in a 1A and 1B situation. Certainly, this is a goaltending duo worth monitoring.

Montreal Canadiens – TUE VS ANA, THU @ NYR, SAT VS WAS

The Canadiens will host the Ducks on Tuesday, visit the Rangers on Thursday and conclude the week with a home match versus the Capitals on Saturday. New York is a tough adversary, but Anaheim and Washington aren’t in playoff positions.

Montreal’s standout forward recently has been Nick Suzuki, who has provided three goals and eight points during his active five-game scoring streak. The 24-year-old was limited to three assists across eight appearances from Jan. 4-18, but he’s been far more hit than miss this campaign, totaling 15 goals and 45 points through 50 contests.

Sean Monahan was having a strong season with Montreal too, but he was dealt to Winnipeg. The silver lining is that opened the door for Brandon Gignac to make his Canadiens debut Tuesday against Washington. Gignac logged 14:54 of ice time, including 0:32 on the power play. He didn’t record a point in that game, but the 26-year-old has 14 goals, 42 points and 36 PIM in 43 outings with AHL Laval this season, so if he continues to serve in a middle-six capacity while seeing time on the Canadiens’ second power-play unit, then he should have some offensive production going forward. Keep in mind that Montreal might not be done trading veterans. At the least, Tanner Pearson is likely to be shopped, and if that happens, the door might be opened to Gignac also serving a bigger role with the man advantage.

It’s safe to say Juraj Slafkovsky won’t be moved, though. Although the 19-year-old hasn’t been a major part of the Canadiens this year, supplying nine goals and 22 points across 50 contests, he is a big part of their long-term plans. He’s also seen an uptick in production recently, collecting five goals and seven points over his last eight games, so perhaps we’re seeing the early stages of a strong second half.

New Jersey Devils – MON VS SEA, TUE @ NAS (BTB), THU VS LAK, SAT VS PHI

New Jersey is gearing up for an eventful week. It will start by hosting the Kraken on Monday, then the Devils will play in Nashville on Tuesday before returning home to face the Kings on Thursday. They’ll conclude the week with a game against the Flyers on Saturday. New Jersey is the home team for that contest, but rather than it being played at Prudential Center, it will be an outdoor event at MetLife Stadium (the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets).

Injuries have held Jack Hughes back in 2023-24, but he returned from an upper-body issue Thursday, logging 20:24 of ice time, including 3:19 with the man advantage. If he can stay healthy, then Hughes adding 35-40 points over the Devils’ final 33 games is a reasonable hope.

Erik Haula might see his role diminish somewhat now that Hughes is back. Haula logged 15:40 on Thursday compared to an average of 17:40 from Jan. 6-Feb. 6 while the Devils were without Hughes. Haula, who had three goals and seven points in 10 outings during that stretch, might see his production decline as a result. He has 11 goals and 25 points in 43 appearances overall.

One forward who is likely to get a lot of work regardless of Hughes’ status is Jesper Bratt. The 25-year-old winger has certainly earned that privilege. He registered three assists Thursday to extend his scoring streak to six contests (four goals, nine points). Bratt’s up to 20 markers and 55 points through 49 outings in 2023-24.

Ottawa Senators – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS ANA, SAT VS CHI

The Senators aren’t having a great campaign, but they’ll be playing against some of the other teams at the bottom of the pack next week. They’ll host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Ducks on Thursday before visiting the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Before that action starts, Anton Forsberg (groin) and Travis Hamonic (upper body) are set to return this Saturday versus Toronto. The Senators are expected to be without Jake Sanderson (lower body) against Toronto, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be available next week. If he can’t play, then Mathieu Joseph will likely find himself with a role on the power play again after averaging just 0:10 with the man advantage over Ottawa’s last seven contests. Joseph hasn’t recorded a power-play point this season, but he’s done well overall with eight goals and 23 points through 37 appearances, so this is a situation worth monitoring.

It will also be interesting to see if Forsberg’s return saps time away from starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The No. 1 goaltender has left plenty to be desired this season with a 12-16-2 record, 3.38 GAA and .889 save percentage in 33 outings. However, Korpisalo has stepped up lately, posting a 4-1-2 record, 2.19 GAA and .912 save percentage across his past seven appearances. If he keeps that up, he should be able to hold Forsberg at bay, but if Korpisalo reverts back to his previous struggles, then Forsberg might play on a semi-regular basis down the stretch.

The Senators don’t have any blazing hot forward at the moment, but Shane Pinto has done well since returning from his 41-game suspension for sports wagering activities. He has two goals and four points in six contests and should continue to serve in a middle-six capacity as well as the first power-play unit going forward.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS STL, THU VS PHI, SAT VS ANA

The Maple Leafs will spend next week at home, hosting the Blues on Tuesday, the Flyers on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday. That’s not the weakest of schedules, but it’s not a particularly difficult one either. St. Louis and Philadelphia are both in the middle to upper-middle of the pack while Anaheim ranks near the bottom.

Joseph Woll (ankle) still isn’t close to returning, so Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are still the team’s goaltending duo. Jones hasn’t started since Jan. 20, but Samsonov has surrendered seven goals on 60 shots (.883 save percentage) over his past two contests, so Jones might get another shot next week. Both of those goaltenders have had great stretches, but also some incredibly rough patches, so they’re risks going forward.

One player who hasn’t dealt with such a roller coaster of a campaign is Auston Matthews. The 26-year-old has eight goals and 13 points in eight contests, but what’s remarkable is he’s not especially hot, that’s practically just the norm for him. Through 48 games, he’s supplied 41 tallies and 61 points and is likely to continue to find the back of the net at a reliable pace as long as he stays healthy. His continued health is critical to the team. While it’s true that Toronto has other superstars, he’s personally scored a staggering 24.3 percent of the team’s entire goals.

In terms of the supporting cast, Toronto doesn’t have anyone doing particularly well at present. The only players to accumulate at least three points over the Leafs’ last five contests are the Big Four (Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander) and their top defenseman, Morgan Rielly. Matthew Knies is getting a turn on the Matthews’ line, though, so perhaps that will help the 21-year-old forward.

FANTASY: The Week Ahead – December 4th to December 10th – Senators Challenges Grow – Chicago, Colorado, Detroit, Los Angeles, Montreal among teams to target.

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:17:11 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.

Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.

It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.

Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.

Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.

Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.

The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.

It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.

The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.

Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.

Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.

Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.

Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.

In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.

Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.

In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.

Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.

Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.

In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.

The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.

Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.

The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.

I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.

In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.

Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.

Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.

We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.

Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.

It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Trade market heating up – Players with increasing value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 10 Feb 2023 20:43:06 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 05: New York Rangers center Filip Chytil (72) tracks the play during the New York Rangers versus the Montreal Canadiens game on January 05, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Rangers dive into the trade market and the St. Louis Blues might just be getting started as sellers. Players with increasing value include Filip Chytil, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Kyle Palmieri, and more.

#1 The Rangers acquired right winger Vladimir Tarasenko from the Blues, and the veteran has 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 38 games, but has failed to record a point in four games since returning from a broken hand that kept him out of the lineup for more than three weeks. Moving to the Rangers ought to give Tarasenko a chance to play with Artemi Panarin, which is a plus, and Tarasenko is already due for some positive shooting percentage regression – he has a 9.7% shooting percentage, and he has never had a season in which he played more than 25 games and finished with a shooting percentage below 10.0%.

#2 Heading back to St. Louis, winger Sammy Blais did not really work out in New York, managing zero goals and nine assists in 54 games going back to last season. Blais has some fantasy sleeper appeal, especially in banger leagues, because the Blues are likely to give him more playing time than he was getting with the Rangers and Blais is a prolific hitter, averaging more than three hits per game for his career.

#3 With Tarasenko departing, the immediate beneficiary in St. Louis would seem to be winger Jake Neighbours, the 20-year-old rookie who is in the AHL, but he has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 27 games and is poised to play a bigger role down the stretch if the Blues are going to embark on a serious rebuild by dealing their veterans with expiring deals. If the Blues are going into overhauling their roster, Ryan O’Reilly and Ivan Barbashev will both have plenty of appeal on the trade market, and they have veteran defensemen on long-term deals – Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy – and it would not be a shock to see the Blues try to move one of them as well.

#4 A first-round pick of the Rangers in 2017, Filip Chytil is having a breakthrough season. He has tallied seven goals during a five-game goal-scoring streak, giving him career highs of 19 goals and 32 points in 43 games. Chytil is scoring on 20.2% of his shots, after scoring on 8.8% of his shots in 253 games prior to this season, so that shooting percentage is due to fall, but he is giving the Rangers a legitimate secondary scoring option.

#5 The New Jersey Devils are going to be without center Jack Hughes on a week-to-week basis due to an upper-body injury. That is a big absence from the lineup as Hughes put up 28 goals and 46 points in his last 30 games before the All-Star break. With Hughes out, Nico Hischier, Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer, and Michael McLeod fill out the middle of the ice for New Jersey and Ondrej Palat moved onto the No. 1 power play unit in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Seattle. Palat has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games.

#6 Scoring Calgary’s only goal in Thursday’s 2-1 loss at Detroit, Blake Coleman has forced his way into fantasy relevance. In his past 11 games, he has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 42 shots on goal. He is not hitting as much as he has in previous seasons, but Coleman’s elevated shot rate still gives him value across multiple categories.

#7 The production might be of the empty calorie variety for an Anaheim Ducks team that is nowhere close to competitive, but Frank Vatrano is at his volume-shooting best in recent games. In his past five games, Vatrano has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal, and anyone who is getting shots like that becomes interesting for fantasy managers. Vatrano has only scored on 7.8% of his shots this season, which would be the lowest mark of his career, so he is likely due for more good fortune around the net.

#8 Veteran winger Kyle Palmieri has not been as productive with the Islanders as he was during his prime in New Jersey, but he could have some sleeper value for the stretch run. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games, while averaging more than 17 minutes per game. Palmieri also has 47 hits in 28 games, so that makes him a more viable deep league option.

#9 It has been anything but a smooth path for 2020 first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere, who has a modest 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games in his third NHL season. He was even a healthy scratch earlier in the season, but with the Rangers reuniting Lafreniere with Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, they may have a quality secondary scoring line. Lafreniere has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. That counts as his most points in any six-game segment of the season and his most shots in a six-game stretch since October.

#10 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Phil Kessel is showing signs of life on their recent stretch of road games, putting up five points (3 G, 2 A) and 18 shots on goal in six straight games away from T-Mobile Arena. Kessel is clearly on the downside of his career, but could still help in a complementary role, and the Golden Knights need all hands on-deck now that captain Mark Stone is out for the rest of the season due to back surgery.

#11 San Jose Sharks winger Alexander Barabanov has been a reluctant shooter, but he is making his mark in a scoring role. In the past 16 games, he has accumulated 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal. That shot rate is not the most encouraging sign, but he is playing big minutes – 20 minutes or more in six of his past 18 games. After struggling to gain footing with Toronto, the 28-year-old has made the most of his opportunity in San Jose.

#12 Most of the time, in 20 Fantasy Points, the focus is on players that could provide more value in the future. There are a few players to consider this week that have declining value. First up is Colorado Avalanche winger Artturi Lehkonen, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Anyone getting a chance to play alongside Nathan MacKinnon has value, of course, but if Lehkonen’s production slows down, it becomes easier for the Avs to replace him in that spot.

#13 Seattle Kraken rookie center Matty Beniers is considered the clear front-runner in the Calder Trophy race for top rookie, but he has hit a rough patch, going without a point and managing 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. Beniers still leads all rookies with 17 goals and 36 points, but the longer this slump goes, the more opportunity there will be for challengers like Cole Perfetti and Mason McTavish, who are seven and eight points behind, respectively, to catch up.

#14 Surprisingly effective early in the season for the Detroit Red Wings, winger Dominik Kubalik had 25 points (10 G, 15 A) while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time in 25 games. In the two months since then, Kubalik has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 24 games and is playing less than 14 minutes per game. Sure, the Red Wings are getting healthier up front, which makes it more difficult to maintain that ice time, but the crash in production did not have to be quite so dramatic.

#15 Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson has often looked overwhelmed in recent seasons. It’s understandable, as the Ducks allow the highest rate of shots against in the league. He has turned in a respectable .906 save percentage since the holiday break, but the workload is getting outrageous. In those 13 games, he has faced 40 or more shots six times, and landed on 39 shots against in two more games. When it comes to fantasy value, Gibson has the potential to provide huge value because of how many shots he faces, but the downside of giving up five or six goals is too much, especially because it means that he is not likely to accumulate wins.

#17 With Cam Talbot injured, Anton Forsberg is getting more reps in goal for the Ottawa Senators. He has won four straight games and his .905 save percentage in 27 games is just a little below league average. The wins are a little easier to come by in Ottawa, at least relative to other non-playoff teams, so if Forsberg is getting regular starts, he becomes a viable option, especially in deeper fantasy leagues.

#18 Considering that Jacob Markstrom was a runner-up for the Vezina Trophy last season, it did not seem like a goalie controversy was going to be part of this season for the Calgary Flames, but it does appear to be trending in that direction. Markstrom has a .892 save percentage, which would be the lowest of his career for a season in which he played at least 20 games. Meanwhile, Daniel Vladar has a .903 save percentage in 20 appearances, which is okay, enough to get him more starts while Markstrom is struggling. Maybe the real question is whether the Flames would consider calling up Dustin Wolf from the AHL. The 21-year-old has a .928 save percentage in 34 games for the Calgary Wranglers this season, after a .924 mark in 47 AHL games last season.

#19 Since the holiday break, the Florida Panthers have the most productive power play, scoring 12.74 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. That comes in just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers (12.57), who have had the best power play in the league by a substantial margin. With the Panthers burying their power play chances, Matthew Tkachuk is tied for the lead in five-on-four scoring since the holiday break with 13 points in 19 games. Connor McDavid has 13 five-on-four points in 17 games. Other Panthers boosting their power play point totals in that time: Aleksander Barkov (11), Sam Reinhart (9), and Brandon Montour (8), who are all among the Top 15 five-on-four scorers.

#20 Again, since the holiday break, looking at players with the highest rate of on-ice expected goals in all situations, Matthew Tkachuk holds the lead among players with at least 100 minutes played at 6.13, followed by Nikolaj Ehlers (5.67), Roope Hintz (5.62), Zach Hyman (5.42), and Auston Matthews (5.36). Some interesting and possibly unexpected names in the Top 25 include Kyle Palmieri, Carter Verhaeghe, Tomas Hertl, and Michael Eyssimont. Strictly during five-on-five play, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe rank 1-2, followed by Hertl, Sam Bennett, and Jaccob Slavin. The takeaway here is that the Panthers have something cooking with their second line at even strength, in addition to their suddenly potent power play.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – NHL Player Profiles

Graeme Nichols – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:48:07 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - NOVEMBER 14: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Thomas Chabot (72) keeps a close eye on the play during third period National Hockey League action between the Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators on November 14, 2021, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk’s reputation as power forward and net-front presence is renowned after just four seasons in the league. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top-10 in both hits (270, 5^th) and shots on goal (288, 10^th). His willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice is what spurs his incredibly high volume of shots. Across all situations, NaturalStatTrick’s data had Tkachuk finishing 13^th amongst league forwards in shots per 60 minutes of ice-time. With most of these shots occurring around the goal mouth, it not surprising to learn that only five players in the league had a higher expected goals per 60 minutes of ice-time rate than Tkachuk last season. That kind of volume in such a dangerous area will lead to great results, so it was not a surprise to see Tkachuk record his first career 30-goal season and set a career high in goals and points (67). Like a few of Ottawa’s other young forwards, one area of growth that needs to improve is Tkachuk’s defensive impact. According to HockeyViz.com’s isolated defensive impact, Tkachuk rates poorly creating 0.16 expected goals against per 60 minutes of ice-time. Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines even-strength and shorthanded impact rated Tkachuk as having the team’s lowest mark (-3.7) amongst its forwards. Unfortunately, what makes Brady a special player could be working against him inside the defensive zone. If he can reign some of that aggressiveness in, it may lead to more structured team defence that benefits everyone.

Josh Norris

The best thing that Josh Norris did in the last calendar year was bet on himself. Rather than negotiate a contract with a year left on his entry-level contract, Norris decided to wait until this summer to open discussions. It paid off as the centre exploded setting career highs in goals (35) and points (55). Armed with a new eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, the pressure will be on Norris to replicate or even improve upon last season’s numbers. There may be concern he is due for regression simply because of his 20.3 shooting percentage. There are a few reasons to be optimistic his production will not diminish. The biggest reason is because Norris’ shot is a weapon. Last season’s mark is not far removed from his 2020-21 shooting percentage (17.7), but Norris really showcased what he could do when given time and space on the power play. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time per NaturalStatTrick.com, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time than Josh Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Not surprisingly, those were the only two forwards who bested Norris’ 16 power play goals on the season. Even if teams adjust their coverage and target Norris, the hope is that the addition of Alex DeBrincat on the opposing flank keep the opposition honest. Norris can overcome regression by shooting more and as the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that Ottawa will spend more time in the offensive zone creating more opportunities for Norris and the rest of Ottawa’s young core.

Drake Batherson

If Josh Norris cashed in at the right time, Drake Batherson just missed out on his chance. After inking a six-year contract carrying a $4.975 million last summer, Batherson was Ottawa’s most productive player (13 G, 34 Pts in 31 GP) when a collision with Buffalo goaltender Aaron Dell put him on the shelf for two months with a high ankle sprain. That injury forced Batherson to miss playing in his first NHL All-Star Game. Batherson would return in March to tally eight goals and 16 points in his final 22 games. He finished second on the team in points per 60 minutes of ice-time (3.03) trailing only Mathieu Joseph who only played in 11 games. Batherson’s progression as a producer makes his six-year extension a bargain and with the salary cap ceiling expected to rise within two years, that contract will continue to pay dividends down the road. Like Tkachuk, Batherson’s defensive play could use some improvement, but the hope is that as the team improves around them, their defensive performance will improve. The Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line often received the toughest matchups while playing in front of one of the league’s worst defensive units. The additions of DeBrincat and Giroux will bolster the scoring depth and create matchup problems but improving the quality of the blue line would do wonders to boost the defensive metrics of Ottawa’s forwards.

Alex DeBrincat

In one of the most unanticipated and biggest moves of the offseason, the Senators went out and acquired a 24-year-old Alex DeBrincat who scored 41 goals last season. The Senators sent the seventh overall selection in 2022 and a second and third-round pick to the Blackhawks for one of the league’s most prodigious goal scorers over the past five seasons. In that span of time, only six players have scored more goals than Alex DeBrincat (160). And, only seven players have scored more power-play goals than DeBrincat’s 33. The Senators will be counting heavily on DeBrincat to give the team two dangerous lines and help boost a first power play unit that almost relied exclusively on feeding Josh Norris to create offence. If there is any genuine concern about DeBrincat’s play, it is going to stem from how he will fare after he logged significant minutes playing alongside one of the league’s most dynamic offensive players in Patrick Kane. Last season DeBrincat’s underlying metrics were worse when he played away from Kane, but across a larger sample of data, he surprisingly fared better. According to NaturalStatTrick’s last three seasons worth of data, the Hawks actually generated a greater percentage of expected goals and scoring chances when DeBrincat did not play with Kane. Although it is true that the Senators currently do not have a dynamic offensive talent like Kane, stylistically speaking, the hope is that Tim Stützle can eventually provide many of the similar elements.

Tim Stützle

Tim Stützle’s 2021-22 campaign was characterized by two acts. The first begins with Stützle playing on the wing. Thanks to the return of Colin White and the emergence of Shane Pinto, Stützle returned to the left wing. The prevailing belief was that fewer defensive responsibilities and a green light to fly the zone would create chances and protect his development. Through his first 16 games however, that philosophy clearly was not working. Stützle only scored one goal while recording 32 shots. Injuries to White and Pinto created the opportunity Stützle needed to transition to centre in late November. Once there, he never looked back. Having more defensive responsibility made him a more engaged player and more puck touches played to Stützle’s strengths. His skill and elusiveness carrying the puck meant more controlled entries and more opportunities to create chances. It also allowed Stützle to draw a significant volume of penalties. Only Connor McDavid (50) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (50) drew more penalties than Stützle’s 45. From March onward, Stützle’s game and confidence grew. He averaged more than a point-per-game while playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown. After the ‘Summer of Pierre’ brought in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, Stützle’s quality of linemates improved significantly. If there is a wart to Stützle’s game, it is his faceoff prowess. Of the forwards to take more than 400 draws, Stützle’s 38.3 percent success rate was the league’s fourth-worst mark. Adding Claude Giroux and his 60.3 percent success rate will ease that burden and hopefully allow this line to gain control and create more offensive chances earlier in shifts.

Claude Giroux

After months of rumours speculated on Claude Giroux’s interest in returning home, the star forward put pen to paper minutes after unrestricted free agency opened and signed a three-year contract ($6.5 million AAV). Giroux will turn 35-years-old next January, but despite being in his mid-30’s, he is still an impactful player. In 75 games between the Flyers and Panthers, the forward contributed 21 goals and 44 assists. Even if there is some age-related decline in production, his ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice will be a huge addition to the Senators’ lineup that has lacked a significant two-way presence since Mark Stone was dealt to Vegas. Last season at five-on-five, his teams generated 55.04-percent of the total shots (CF%), 57.32-percent of the goals (GF%) and 54.48-percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Not only will Giroux’s on-ice performance help insulate the young core that management has put together, but as a former captain who has experienced success in this league — a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013-14; a 7-time NHL All-Star, a second-team NHL All-Star in 2017-18 — his experiences, leadership and intangibles are going to play a pivotal role in helping develop this team’s young core.

Alex Formenton

Alex Formenton has played parts of the last four seasons in Ottawa, but the 2021-22 campaign represented his first full season with the Senators.In 79 games, the speedy left winger scored 18 goals while adding 14 assists. Per NaturalStatTrick, Formenton (8.19) finished second on the Senators in five-on-five shots per 60 minutes of ice-time behind only Brady Tkachuk (9.26). Considering how Formenton played in a third line checking role and spent a lot of time in his own end defending (47.04 CF%), it speaks volumes about how he creates offence. Almost all of it is done exclusively through his skating. As one of the league’s fastest skaters, the majority of Formenton’s offence is created off the rush. The individual chances he creates off are electric and easily perceptible, but right now, they limit his upside to a third-line, penalty killing specialist role. On the penalty kill, Formenton thrived. Per NaturalStatTrick’s shorthanded data, of the skaters who logged more than 100 minutes of shorthanded ice-time, only four skaters averaged a higher individual expected goal rate per 60 minutes (ixG/60) than Formenton. For a penalty kill group that lost big contributors like Connor Brown and Nick Paul, Formenton will be relied upon heavily. His speed makes him a dynamic threat, but Formenton to take his game to another level, he needs to add to his toolbox and find ways to create more offence through sustained offensive zone pressure. From January on last season, Formenton showcased flashes displaying an improved awareness and ability to create offensively, but until it happens more consistently, he will probably be best served in a depth role.

Mathieu Joseph

After being traded to the Ottawa Senators at last year’s trade deadline for Nick Paul, Mathieu Joseph was a relevation to the Senators in the 11 games that he played. The Senators saw enough in Joseph to reward him with a relatively inexpensive four-year extension worth $11.8 million ($2.95 million AAV). In an admittedly small sample size of games, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice-time in a Senators jersey. He benefited from his career-high 21.1 shooting percentage, so there will likely be some regression there. Like the aforementioned Formenton, there were some concerns that Joseph was more of a slasher in terms of how he generated offence. He would use his speed and defensive acumen to create individual rush chances that would never really result in sustained offensive zone pressure. Fortunately, Joseph’s 7.01 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time represented a career-high for him and it is an encouraging sign that Joseph can recreate some of the offensive touch that he showcased down the stretch. In just his short time in Ottawa, Joseph demonstrated that he could be an exceptional penalty killer and with the departures of Nick Paul and Connor Brown, he will play a prominent role there.

Austin Watson

A favourite of head coach D.J. Smith, Austin Watson had one of his best NHL seasons. The veteran right winger reached double-digits goal mark (10) for only the second time in his eight-year career while recording 16 points. On the ice, Watson is somewhat of a throwback archetypical fourth line winger. He is relied upon to provide intangibles and a physical presence to a roster that is overflowing with young talent. Although the dynamics of the league have changed in the modern era, the Senators still place a value on having a player like Watson around to protect its young talent. To only portray Watson in that way is unfair however, because he draws a ton of penalties and has become a valued member of the team’s penalty kill. NaturalStatTrick’s numbers show that only Tim Stützle has a higher drawn penalty rate than Watson. And according to HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact data, when Watson was on the ice while the team was shorthanded, he positively influenced the team’s expected goals allowed rate (-0.37 xGA/60). After losing a few valued members of a penalty kill unit that finished with the league’s 11^th-highest penalty kill success rate (83.9%), Watson is going to factor heavily into this season’s success.

DEFENSE

Thomas Chabot

Thomas Chabot is the lynchpin of the Senators’ defence and was the team’s most valuable player last season according to Evolving-Hockey.com’s ‘Wins Above Replacement’ (WAR) metric. Chabot’s WAR (3.0) led all Senators skaters and was the league’s eighth-highest mark amongst all defencemen – which really shows how strong his season was considering he was limited to 59 games because of a broken hand. Chabot finished his season contributing seven goals and 38 points while finishing only behind only Seth Jones (26:13) in average ice-time per game (26:12). Like every season, how impactful Chabot can be, may be mitigated by his defensive partner. Barring a trade this offseason, the Senators’ weakest defensive position is its right side. Chabot’s most common partner at five-on-five last season was Artyom Zub. When on the ice together, the Senators generated a greater share of the five-on-five goals (55.64 GF%) and expected goals (53.10 xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey. If Smith moves Zub around to have two stronger pairings, it could negatively impact Chabot’s numbers if he has to log significant minutes alongside Travis Hamonic or Nikita Zaitsev. If there is one area of improvement for Chabot, it is that he is not an impactful power play performer. Despite the first power play unit’s talent level and Chabot’s ability to distribute the puck, he has never been a dangerous power play performer.

Artyom Zub

Zub has developed a cult following in Ottawa not only because of his name is fun to say when he touches the puck at the Canadian Tire Centre, but because he has asserted himself and quickly become the team’s best defensive defenceman. In fact, he may be one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines all even strength and shorthanded contributions, only 15 defencemen in the league had a higher defensive impact than Zub’s 5.7. He will never bring fans out of their seats with a devastating hit, but Zub’s gap control and active stick allow him to disrupt plays before they evolve into dangerous chances. Coupled with his ability to consistently move the puck and it is easy to understand why he makes the players around him better. With so much riding on the performance and development of Jake Sanderson, it is this stabilizing presence that could lead the Senators to utilizing him as an insulator to ensure that the rookie’s career gets off to a fantastic start.

Travis Hamonic

At the recommendation of assistant coach Jack Capuano who was familiar with Travis Hamonic from their time on Long Island, the Senators unexpectedly acquired the defenceman from the Vancouver Canucks at the 2022 NHL trade deadline. Rather than wait to see what the offseason market would bring, Pierre Dorion moved to avoid the possibility that he would come away emptyhanded in the summer. In 19 games for the Senators, Hamonic scored one goal and added two assists while recording a +5 rating. One of the interesting dynamics in the Ottawa market is that Hamonic is often viewed positively for his contributions to the team down the stretch. Some of that probably has to do with the Senators’ scoring 51.72 percent of all the total five-on-five goals while Hamonic was on the ice. A lot of that is luck dependent. A look into Hamonic’s numbers on NaturalStatTrick.com reveals that the Senators only generated 45.96 percent of the total shots (CF%), 46.11 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 44.34 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). All these metrics are worse than his numbers were in Vancouver and if not for the Senators shooting 9.74 percent while he was on the ice, he probably would not be viewed as favorably.

Erik Brannstrom

It feels like every season is a make-or-break year for Erik Brannstrom. After the finish to the 2020-21 campaign looked like it solidified him as a regular, the Senators went out last offseason and acquired Michael Del Zotto and Nick Holden. Brannstrom’s two-way contract worked against him, and he started the season in Belleville. It took some time for Brannstrom to be recalled and dress regularly, but when he did, the numbers were not particularly flattering. As an undersized defenceman who is best known for puck-moving ability, Brannstrom has not consistently demonstrated that he is dynamic or talented enough to offset his limitations as a defender. As a player who struggles to box out, win battles or outmuscle the opposition, Brannstrom needs to find other ways to disrupt plays and create turnovers to help tilt the ice in Ottawa’s favour. In 2021-22, the opposition generated more than 50 percent of the shots, goals, expected goals and scoring chances when Brannstrom was on the ice. The only area where Brannstrom has consistently demonstrated an ability to contribute is on the power play. Chabot’s injury created that opportunity for him, but with Chabot’s return to health and the presence of the well-regarded Jake Sanderson, Brannstrom may not get the chance to showcase his puck distribution skills again. And if those power play opportunities become limited, or the organization prefers to place veterans like Nick Holden, Travis Hamonic and Nikita Zaitsev ahead of Brannstrom on the depth chart, the former highly touted prospect may not be long for the organization.

GOALTENDING

Cam Talbot

It’s unlikely that Cam Talbot expected the Minnesota Wild to deal for another starter last year, and it seems even less likely that he expected the team to re-sign the older option in Marc-Andre Fleury when Talbot himself was clearly still available to navigate the ship this upcoming season. So although both Talbot and the Wild have stressed that it wasn’t per his request, it seems likely that there’s a sense of relief for the netminder after he was dealt to the Ottawa Senators to take over in their tandem for the recently-moved Matt Murray.

The trade may have pushed Talbot from a clear playoff contender to a fringe Wild Card roster, but it’s a very apparent upgrade for the team itself. Where Matt Murray still seemed to be struggling to shake some of his bad habits as the team’s reclamation project over the last few years, Talbot has very obviously cleaned his game up in the aftermath of his tumultuous tenure with the Edmonton Oilers. Gone are the days where he’d play stretches of games just a few inches off angle from oncoming shots; instead, he’s back to being a goaltender who sits in the middle of his crease and waits for shots to dictate how much he needs to move, with good tracking sense and a seemingly unshakeable demeanor no matter what the score looks like on the jumbotron above the ice. That’s good news for both the Senators and his new tandem partner Anton Forsberg, who is still in the early years of his own redemption story arc and could use a more stabilizing presence to work alongside.

Projected starts: 45-50

Anton Forsberg

Anyone who has followed Anton Forsberg’s career since his tenure in Columbus will find it hard not to root for the veteran netminder this year. After a confidence-draining stint with the Chicago Blackhawks that saw him suddenly asked to shoulder a substantial workload, he ended up bouncing around for a few years at the AHL level with scattered NHL starts peppered in throughout – and slowly but surely, he managed to shake the bad habits he developed during the Chicago season and re-establish himself as a technically structured, quietly fun netminder with plenty of promise. His game gives off the impression that the development coaches he worked with from 2018 to 2021 stripped his technique down to the basics and built him back up again; he spends less time trying to settle in to get centered for an oncoming shot, which frees him up to make quick adjustments instead of having to course-correct and then snag deflections. His confidence paid off, too; although he hadn’t played in a statistically significant volume of games since the 2017-18 NHL season, Ottawa was pleased enough with his performance in limited games during the 2020-21 season to bring him into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray last season. And even playing behind a rebuilding Senators roster, which could have resulted in a season that mimicked Forsberg’s panic-driven Chicago year in 2017, the 29-year-old Swedish netminder managed to clearly emerge as the team’s best option; he posted a .917 save percentage in all situations over 46 games, recording quality starts in 67 percent of those and earning his first career NHL shutout in the process. Now, he’ll split the helm with veteran Cam Talbot as Ottawa attempts to take a step forward – and although it seemed nearly impossible to imagine two or three years ago, that could be the catalyst behind a re-emergence of the Atlantic Division club as a legitimate Wild Card contender this spring.

Projected starts: 35-40

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.