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For most, trying to predict fantasy goalies is a little like trying to predict where lightning is going to strike. If you are like me, you need all the help you can get. One thing you can do to help better prepare for your fantasy draft is to rank goalies by tiers. Depending on your leagues size, format, and scoring mechanism you can have all different kinds of values associated to players. With goalies, there are a few constants which apply to most leagues and situations that you need to take into consideration.
Below I will rank the top 50 goalies and categorize them into groups. Heading into your draft, you should have an idea of how much value you want to place on a goalie. How soon do you draft one, do you want an elite goalie, are you happy with two good goalies. You can put all your eggs in one basket and use a first round pick on a player like Carey Price. You may think that the league elite goalies fluctuates so much each year, and you would be correct, and therefore you wait until mid-draft and pick a goalie who may have a monster year. Once you have an idea of how your draft strategy, you need to look at ranking the goalies into a tier system. I suggest looking at some of the better fantasy hockey predictors such as the McKeens yearbook, and Dobber hockey and then create your own draft tier list like the one I created below.
Tier I: The Elite
These are the best of the best; they play on Stanley Cup contenders and are the undisputed starter, and are Vezina calibre.
1. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens – He won it all last year, Vezina, Hart, Lindsay, and Jennings.
2. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers – King Henrik is arguably the best goalie on the planet.
3. Jonathan Quick, LA Kings – No contest who is the starter with the two time Cup Champion.
4. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals – New addition to the top five after a breakout year.
5. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning – Big Ben needs to stay healthy, if so he is elite.
Nothing wrong with this group, they are all capable of being elite but have some question.
6. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators – Re-established himself after an injury lost season.
7. M.A. Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins – Always has strong regular season stats and the Pens have beefed up.
8. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins – Rask is solid, but what direction are the Bruins headed?
9. Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks – Crawford struggled at times and temporarily lost the crease in playoffs to Scott Darling. A hiccup or a warning sign?
10. Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders - Was unable to get job done in St. Louis but has looked good on the Island. The Islanders are a team on the rise, can he do for them what he couldn’t do in St. Louis?
Tier III: Good goalies in bad situations
11. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche – The Avs had a huge regression but Varly remained solid.
12. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus – Injuries killed the season last year but Columbus are a team on the rise
13. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers – Roberto is getting older, will the Panthers improve while he can still make a difference?
14. Corey Schneider, New Jersey Devils – Entering his prime but desperately needs some run support.
15. Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers – Flyers may have finally found their starting goalie
16. Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild – This time last year he was a fantasy after thought, then went on to play in over 40 straight games earning a Vezina nomination. Would the real Dubnyk please stand up?
Tier IV: Should be the starting goalie on a good team…should be!
17. Jonas Hiller, Calgary Flames – Rebound season, Flames projected to regress, contract year, a lot of questions with this player.
18. Frederik Andersen, Anaheim Ducks – With the addition of Khudobin and Gibson pushing, Andersen could lose some starts at the first sign of trouble.
19. Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators – Has elite type stats, but can’t stay healthy. Had the crease burgled late in the season.
20. Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks – Jacob Markstrom will push Miller who struggled at times last year.
Tier V: Split starters on good teams
Tandem situations where the team will ride two goalies, ideal for handcuff situations
21. Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings – Lost the starting job in playoffs, but contract says he is the starter
22. Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings – Is younger and arguably better than Howard.
23. Brian Elliott, St. Louis Blues – Like Howard, lost the starting job in the playoffs.
24. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues – Is the gaolie of the future, which could begin immediately.
25. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas Stars – Brutal season, may flourish with less pressure.
26. Antti Niemi, Dallas Stars – Couldn’t cut it as a starter in San Jose, may work well in tandem.
Tier VI: The Unknown
Potentially great goalies, potentially getting their first crack as a number one.
27. Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks – Sharks could have a good season and Jones could see the lions share of the starts.
28. Robin Lehner, Buffalo Sabres – Tim Murray believes in Lehner, he drafted him in Ottawa, gave up a first to bring him to Buffalo, but has injury history.
29. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers – Talbot was excellent spelling Henrik Lundqvist when he was injured behind a strong New York Rangers defence.
Tier VII: Split starters on bad teams
30. Jonathan Bernier, Toronto Maple Leafs – The Leafs badly want him to be the answer in goal.
31. James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs – Clean slate in Toronto with new management, it’s now or never for Optimus Reim.
32. Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets – The Jets are not a bad team, but Pavelec has proven to be very inconsistent
33. Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg Jets – Again, Jets are a good team, but Hutchinson struggled later in the season
34. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes – Ward has been in steady decline, but is in a UFA contract year.
35. Eddie Lack, Carolina Hurricanes – Lack is a player on the rise. In a better situation he would rank higher. His time may come next year, or as soon as now.
These players need a break to reach their full potential, but I’m saying there is a chance.
36. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks – If he were not injured last year, he could have been ranked in the top three tiers
37. Andrew Hammond, Ottawa Senators – Count on Anderson being injured, and when that happens, the Sens will look to Hammond. Was his miraculous run an aberration, or is he the next Tim Thomas?
38. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets – As mentioned above, the Jets are a good team and Pavelec and Hutchinson have underwhelmed. Hellebuyck impressed at the World Championship and could steal the show
39. Scott Darling, Chicago Blackhawks – Darling temporarily won the starting job away from Crawford last year and has a slight chance of doing so again and not letting go.
Tier IX: Rookies
These rookies have lots of potential and should be starters one day, maybe not this year…but maybe.
40. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning – A blood clot will keep him out for the first few months otherwise he could push the split with Bishop.
41. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins – The AHL’s best goalie will be the backup to Fleury this year, all it takes is an injury and Murray will be the starter.
42. Malcolm Subban, Boston Bruins – Was shelled and pulled in his first NHL game last year but is the future starter for the Bruins and could be the backup to Rask this year.
43. Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers – Was dominant in the KHL last year and returns to the NHL after 23 games with the Islanders.
Tier X: The long shots
If you are drafting these guys, they better be your third goalie or you only score one and you have a Tier one goalie.
44. Karri Ramo, Calgary Flames
45. Michael Neuvirth, Philadelphia Flyers
46. Alex Stalock, San Jose Sharks
47. Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver Canucks
48. Ben Scrivens, Edmonton Oilers
49. Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders
50. Jhonas Enroth, LA Kings
]]>2014-15 figures to be more of the same. A long list of elite forwards (Thornton, Couture, Marleau, Pavelski), a group of unique defencemen on the back-end (Demers, Burns, and Vlasic), and a four goal-a-game prospect (well, sometimes) in Tomas Hertl. They’ll all no doubt be speckled across the early and mid-rounds of your draft come September.
Where things start to get interesting, or dangerous, depending on how you view it, is in net with Stalock and Niemi.
Conventional hockey wisdom says this shouldn’t really be much of a discussion. Niemi has been the team’s full-time starter the past four years, never playing in less than 60 games (if you pro-rate the lockout), boasts career numbers of 2.35 and .916, and has won a Stanley Cup (if you’re into that sort of thing).
Saying all of that, the mindset of general managers has shifted from 15 years ago. Capturing a Stanley Cup is no longer considered an automatic omen of future success. During his time in Chicago and now San Jose, both teams have been among the five best in hockey. He’s been a part of their success, surely, but just how significant of a part is difficult to discern.
There’s the additional wrinkle of his looming unrestricted free agency. Niemi is currently making $3.8 million dollars a year. That ranks him 21st among goalies in terms of cap hit. Behind such notables as Ondrej Pavelec and Cam Ward. It’s an understatement to say that he’s one of the better bargains around the league.
That all changes come this summer, when he’ll be looking for a significant contract extension. If we’re looking for a comparable tender, names like Corey Crawford and Kari Lehtonen spring to mind. Both are making around $6 million a year on long-term deals. We can assume that Niemi will be looking for at least that number (if not more), given how the cap has been rising the past few seasons.
And then we have back-up Alex Stalock. The 27-year-old American goalie who has played in a grand total of 27 games in the NHL. Now, his play has been remarkably good over that time – 1.86 and .931. It’s a small sample size, but he certainly hasn’t disappointed. His cap hit comes in a lowly $1.6 million for this year and next – the NHL equivalent of the sale rack at your local department store.
Doug Wilson has a number of factors to weigh: just how good is Niemi? How much of his goalies’ success is due to their innate ability versus the team in front of him? At nearly 31 years old will a long-term deal to Niemi leave the team in a lurch as time wears on? Is Stalock ready for 40 or 50 starts per year given his relative level of unprovenness? (if that’s a word).
Niemi had an even strength save percentage of .920 last season, ranking him 22nd among goalies that played 41 or more games. It’s a somewhat worrisome statistic, and it’s not limited simply to last season - in 2012-13 he finished 11th. If we assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle then he’s probably around the 15th best tender at even strength (or thereabouts, the stat isn’t perfect)
Are the Sharks prepared to offer a big money, long-term contract to a goalie that is entering what should be his declining years, and has proven to be slightly above average over the past two seasons?
It’s a question that that’s surely plaguing management, but is also sitting on the minds of poolies this fall. If he’s starting 60 or more games, on that team, then Niemi can be counted on as one of the top seven or eight guys at the position. If he’s in some sort of time split scenario where his future is uncertain… well who knows at that point.
Jonas Hiller went through a similar situation in Anaheim the last few years. He was pushed internally by a variety of other tenders, each of whom posted decent numbers on a talented Ducks’ team. He went to free agency and is now stuck on the deserted island of fantasy relevance that is Calgary (sorry, Giordano).
It’s not time to officially press the panic button if you’re targeting Niemi this season or beyond. He could sign a five year extension in November and remove any and all doubt from our collective psyche. But, at the very least, I’d start scribbing your ‘plan B’ on a napkin, just to be safe.
Darren Kennedy (@fantasyhockeydk) is a contributor for McKeen’s and Dobber Hockey. He’ll talk about anything and everything… except Kovalchuk. Never, ever, Kovalchuk.
]]>You can view the latest version of the NHL Depth Charts to stay updated with every team's movement in goal.
Below are some of my thoughts on all of the goalie movement that transpired on Friday. If you would like more insight or opinions on anything, please feel free to contact me at justin@thegoalieguild.com at any time.
The goalie-go-round started turning when the Islanders signed Evgeni Nabokov to a one-year deal reportedly worth $3.25 million. "Nabby" got hot at the right time for the Isles this past season, going 7-0-4 in April with a 1.76 goals-against average and .928 save percentage. He was a stickler against some decent teams, going 3-0 against Tampa Bay and Florida, 2-0 against Montreal, 2-0-1 against Washington, and 2-0-1 against Toronto.
Photo Copyright: Tom Turk - Piratical Photography
Just a few days after buying out Rick DiPietro, I was not surprised to see Nabokov re-sign. On one hand, I think it's a good fit because it breeds an even higher level of familiarity between the two sides. Paying him over $3 million is a hefty investment, but there is no long-term risk due to this being a one-year deal.
On the other hand, Nabokov turns 38 on July 25, so the risk regarding this deal begins and ends with his durability. If the Islanders feel he shouldn't or can't play more than 62-65 games, they will have to either instill their faith in Kevin Poulin as the team's backup, or spend more money to sign a veteran.
If the Isles don't sign anyone else, there is a chance that Anders Nilsson could win the job, but the odds are in Poulin's favor since he spent a chunk of this past season behind Nabokov. Nilsson also missed a fair amount of time with what was possibly a vitamin B-12 deficiency, but it still remains somewhat of a mystery.
Honestly, I think questions surrounding Nabokov's durability are overblown. You can't go into a season expecting an injury just because he's a year older, and beyond playing in 41 games this season, he arguably saved his best stretch for last. No, he wasn't very good against the Penguins in the playoffs (posted a 4.44 GAA in six games), but he still gave the Islanders a chance to win a few of those games.
Since 2000, for all active and non-active goalies between the ages of 30 and 45, Nabokov is currently third overall in wins with 214 (Brodeur has 345, Kiprusoff has 239). So despite the fact he's in his late-30's, I still think he's reliable. As the driving force behind the team making it back to the playoffs, even though things like rebound control and "timely saves" were questionable at times, he still earned this new deal.
The theme of "familiarity" continued when it was announced that Ray Emery signed a one-year, $1.65 million deal with the Flyers. There's never a dull moment in Philly's crease, and you can be rest assured there will be plenty of media commentary and maybe a bit of drama surrounding the tandem with Emery and Steve Mason.
In terms of efficient production, Emery is coming off the best season of his NHL career. He was well-insulated behind a strong Blackhawks team, which certainly played a role in his ability to go 17-1-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .922 SV%. Take nothing away from Emery's accomplishments (Stanley Cup, Jennings Trophy) and his admirable return from Avascular Necrosis, but the major change in atmosphere and scenery will play a major role in his performance next season.
With that in mind, I consider this to be another risky tandem for the Flyers. But at least it's way more cost-efficient, and for way less term.
You will see plenty of feel-good stories coming out of the Philly media as the summer goes along. They'll talk about Emery's improved maturity, his work ethic, and his determination. But when the going gets tough and the Flyers are relying on him every night, I still have to question his durability in a system that hasn't been the kindest to their goaltenders.
Of course this is all contingent on how Mason performs in his early-season opportunities. Both will have chances to run with things, but I'm not seeing a clear-cut "winner" in this battle right now.
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The Flyers also announced the signing of Yann Danis. Danis is an undersized goalie that can fill in as an NHL backup in an injury situation, but I don't believe he has the skill to stick in the league for a full season.
He does make a perfect starter for Adirondack though. He was the AHL Goaltender of the Year in 2012 and was fifth overall in AHL wins this year with 26. He posted a 2.59 GAA and .911 SV% in the regular season, and then went 10-7 in the AHL playoffs with a 2.41 GAA and .923 SV%.
That signing sets up a really nice battle in training camp for his backup spot between Carsen Chubak and Cal Heeter. Chubak is signed to an AHL with Adirondack after a stellar year with Niagara. He was a Hobey Baker Finalist and led his team to the NCAA Tournament.
The Coyotes went against the grain of their prototypical bigger, positionally-based goalie by signing Thomas Greiss. In my most recent viewings of Greiss, I continued to like what I saw. I think he has a very nice athletic blend to his butterfly style, but I always came away feeling like he could be a more stable, consistent performer.
While he clearly has the active hands and feet needed to thrive at the NHL level, I think he over-pursues shots and plays too often. In that regard, I think he will benefit from working with Coyotes goalie coach Sean Burke, who can instill more structure in his positional game. He'll learn how to trust his angles and depth more by possibly having him play on a tighter leash and spending a bit more time in the blue paint.
I love the fact Greiss is not afraid to square up to shots in the white paint and be aggressive, but he has decent size (listed at 6-foot-1, 215 pounds), so I think there is an opportunity for him to use it a bit more effectively.
Smooth laterally and very quick to drop, recover, and rotate, I also think Greiss has the mechanics and quickness to improve on his 1-4-0 record and .915 SV% from last season. It will certainly be bolstered playing within Phoenix's defensive system, but even that's not a guarantee since he won't have the luxury of playing often behind Mike Smith.
That being said, San Jose scored just 2.42 goals-per-game (24th overall) in the regular season, so I just don't anything came easy for Greiss. He also suffered a head/neck injury (may have been a concussion) and missed a fair amount of time, not playing at all from Feb. 11 to March 6.
With only 25 appearances behind Antti Niemi over the past two seasons, I feel like Greiss' game needs to be cleaned up. He's messy at times; over-animated and exhibiting unnecessary excessive movement. I think he tries too hard to make some routine saves, so he seems to expel a lot of energy, and then struggles to play at a composed and controlled manner as the game drags on. Although this sample size is extremely small, he has allowed 15 goals in the first period, 16 in the second period, and then 22 in the third period.
I have no way of knowing whether there's a correlation between that goal-per-period stat and my observations, but it was something I've noticed over the past few seasons.
At the end of the day, Greiss' role essentially stays the same -- he goes from backing up one workhorse to backing up another. The Coyotes' defensive-minded system is a benefit, but whether it translates to a more successful season remains to be seen because he simply may not play more than 10-12 games. I am excited to see what kind of tweaks and adjustments Burke makes to Greiss' game, however.
The Sharks made a key move by signing St. Paul, MN native Alex Stalock. It appears like he has earned the backup role to Niemi, which is a role I had projected for him a few years ago.
Stalock has a high level of quickness and agility, he's very proficient at moving the puck, and he is very competitive in the crease. He plays with an aggressive edge, challenges shooters very well, and makes excellent compact, tight butterfly saves. He has active hands and a good stick and is not afraid to surprise shooters with a poke check or a full-split save attempt.
The biggest obstacle for him will be the size and consistency factor. He is listed at 6-foot-0 but that is being gracious, and with only three games of NHL experience, he won't shake the questions concerning his readiness. But his NHL debut was memorable. He was thrown into the fire after replacing Niemi on Feb. 1 of 2011. He entered the game down 3-0 to the Coyotes halfway through the second period and stopped all nine shots he faced for the 5-3 win.
But just two days later, Stalock suffered a nasty laceration injury behind his left knee due to an errant skate blade. That ended his season, and in that same game, he was replaced by none other than newly-signed Predators backup Hutton.
It took almost an entire year for Stalock to recover from that injury, so the playing time he missed was significant. Now that he turns 26 on July 28, the injury and rehab experience has made him no worse for wear, and maybe even a bit more prepared to handle what lies ahead.
Stalock established himself as a legit NHL prospect after he spent three years at the University of Minnesota-Duluth. He turned pro in 2009 as the school's all-time leader in SV% (.910) and GAA (2.48). In 2009, he was the driving force behind the Bulldogs winning the WCHA Final Five.
The 33-year-old Jason Labarbera had his ups and downs with the Coyotes last season, going 4-6-2 record with a 2.64 GAA and .923 SV%. He's one of those "perfect backup" guys that earns kudos from guys like myself because he does all the little things in practice and on the bench in order to be labeled a great teammate. His size is a clear-cut asset, and despite the fact the numbers and performances may not be sparkling, his work with Burke during his tenure in Phoenix has enhanced his overall skill-set.
It also helps to play behind a guy like Smith and learn from him since the two are decently comparable in terms of style.
LaBarbera has bounced around a lot in his career, playing with the Kings, Rangers, and Canucks. He has 175 games of NHL experience and has a great friendship with Devan Dubnyk, as they have trained together for many years.
The risk involved in this situation is the fact that LaBarbera will have to win some hockey games in a very different type of system compared to Phoenix. If Dubnyk struggles, can Jason perform at a high level on a consistent basis. Is a .923 SV% possible outside of the insulated Coyotes defensive system?
Over the past four seasons, LaBarbera has tallied just 17, 17, 19, and then 15 appearances. That's only 68 games over the course of four seasons -- a lot of drills and practice work, and not a lot of playing. He has obviously learned how to handle that aspect of being a backup, but it doesn't make things any easier once the workload increases.
So that's the question in my mind -- will his role actually elevate behind Dubnyk, or will the Giraffe reach the next level in his slowly-developing career? Except for Bryzgalov, we don't have any legit NHL goalies coming out of Phoenix's system to use as a comparable for moving out of their warm and cozy defensive shell, so consider me apprehensive right now.
Carter Hutton was one of the most unlikely candidates to earn a full-time NHL backup gig today. But even though Hutton didn't have the strongest season compared to 2011-12 (named as Rockford's team MVP), he did impress Nashville's scouts enough to earn this opportunity.
Another person he impressed was Predators goalie coach Mitch Korn. I had a brief chat with him shortly after the deal was announced to get his thoughts:
"He has battled for everything he's ever gotten," Korn told me. "He's played in an AHL team that has produced goalies. He handles the puck extremely well and he's the right age [27]. He reminds me so much of when we took Dan Ellis with one NHL game of experience. For all those reasons, we felt we'd go in that direction rather than recycle."
In my lone live viewing of Hutton, which came in November at the Xcel Energy Center against the Houston Aeros, I noted that his puck-handling was very good. At the same time, I also noted that I thought he could play bigger, as he was dropping early on a few shots and not showing great patience on his skates. It was a very average showing in my opinion, as he stopped just 18 of 21 shots total in the 3-2 loss. But hey, that's just one game, and one where he didn't see much action, while Matt Hackett stood on his head that night.
Ultimately, Hutton is being asked to fill a role where he might play 12 games total. As Korn told me, the door is open for Hutton to establish himself as an NHL backup, and they have some goalies to continue developing in Milwaukee.
That means you can expect Sweden's Magnus Hellberg and Czech Republic native Marek Mazanec to be the organization's AHL tandem.
Speaking of Dan Ellis, I was surprised to see the Stars sign him to back up Kari Lehtonen for two years. I knew they would be adding some type of veteran presence to act as a buffer between Lehtonen and Cris Nilstorp, who signed a new one-year, two-way deal back in mid-June.
Ellis was originally drafted by the Stars 60th overall in 2000. He most recently resurrected his career by having a stellar run in the AHL with Charlotte during the NHL Lockout, going 8-7-2 with a 2.46 GAA and .922 SV%. After that, he signed with Carolina for a pro-rated one-year deal, and went 6-8-2 with a 3.13 GAA and .906 SV% while playing with Justin Peters (Cam Ward was injured).
Ellis earned the opportunity to return to the NHL after resurrecting his career following a bad groin injury to end the 2011-12 season. Over the summer, he trained hard with Corey Wogtech from W Goaltending. In February, I had a chance to chat with Wogtech and posted this piece on the adjustments they made to make Ellis a more positionally sound goaltender.
I spoke with Stars goalie coach Mike Valley shortly after Ellis signed, and I know the two have a good relationship and get along very well. So Ellis will step into a familiar role by backing up a workhorse starter and should mesh with his teammates comfortably. Because the Stars will continue to manage Lehtonen's minutes by trying to keep him in the 62-game range, Dan will get a chance to win some games for a team that has a whole new look, a new general manager, and a totally new direction.
The Bruins lost their solid backup when Anton Khudobin agreed to sign a new one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes.
Personally speaking, this was my favorite deal of the day. Khudobin rarely had an off night with the Bruins this season, going 9-4-1 with a 2.32 GAA and .920 SV%. He brings a ton of energy to the crease, and just like his dynamic and unique style on the ice, he has a similar personality off the ice.
I believe he'll be well-received by the team and successful in a role that has been quite unstable for the Hurricanes. From Michael Leighton to Justin Peters to Brian Boucher (UFA) and Ellis, they finally have someone that has worked hard to get to this point in his career.
Khudobin is 27 and was drafted 206th overall way back in 2004 by the Minnesota Wild.
That age bracket --- between 25 and 27 --- seems to be the sweet spot for a number of these fringe AHL/NHL guys to earn that elusive opportunity to be full-time backups.
Chad Johnson just signed a new one-year, one-way contract with the Bruins to replace Khudobin, and he just turned 27 on June 10. Hutton and Greiss are also 27 years old.
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