Antti Raanta – McKeen's Hockey

FANTASY: THE WEEK AHEAD – November 20th – 26th – Carolina and Colorado with favourable weeks – Goaltending issues rampant

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 13:41:29 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 27: Carolina Hurricanes Center Jesperi Kotkaniemi (82) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes on January 27, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

The 2022-23 campaign was amazing for offensive defensemen, but this year might be even better. That’s not a statement that should be made lightly. Erik Karlsson had 101 points last year, the most for a blueliner since Brian Leetch in 1991-92, and seven other defensemen exceeded the 70-point milestone. How could 2023-24 end up being even better?

It starts with Quinn Hughes, who is tied for the overall scoring lead with seven goals and 28 points through 18 contests, but it doesn’t end with him. Cale Makar is also in the top 10 with 24 points in 16 outings and an additional four defensemen (Victor Hedman, Evan Bouchard, Filip Hronek and Karlsson) are averaging at least a point per game while logging 16 or more contests. A total of 12 blueliners have PPGs of at least 0.88 (72-point pace over 82 contests) while making at least 16 appearances.

So, while it’s still early, we are on track to set an even higher bar than last year in terms of offensive defenseman.

Overall scoring is up too, though just slightly. Through Saturday’s action, the league was averaging 3.20 goals per team per game. If sustained, that would make this the highest-scoring season since 1993-94, though it’d represent just a small upgrade from 2022-23 (3.18). Still, scoring has been on an overall upward slope for years and has risen significantly compared to 2015-16 (2.71). It’s a fun time to be a hockey fan.

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina has a trio of home games ahead of them, hosting Edmonton on Wednesday, Tampa Bay on Friday and Columbus on Sunday. The Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the league, the Lightning have been mediocre without Andrei Vasilevskiy (back) and Edmonton did go on a three-game winning streak, but it’s over now and even after that, the Oilers have a lowly 5-10-1 record. In other words, the Hurricanes have a real chance to win all three games.

Goaltending Frederik Andersen remains out indefinitely with a blood clotting issue. Last year, that would have led to Antti Raanta becoming the clear No. 1 goaltender, but Raanta has struggled in 2023-24 with a 4-2-0 record, 3.02 GAA and .877 save percentage in seven contests. Even with Andersen gone, Raanta has warmed the bench for Carolina’s last two games due to his poor play. Instead, Pyotr Kochetkov started in those games, but with a 1-4-0 record, 3.10 GAA and .876 save percentage in five outings, he might not be the solution either.

Keep an eye on Jaroslav Halak. He’s been with the team on a tryout basis, and with the Hurricanes’ goaltending being this shaky, he might end up being signed and get some starts. Alternatively, the No. 1 job is wide open, so either Kochetkov or Raanta could snatch it with a single hot streak.

Up front, Sebastian Aho is riding high with three goals and seven points over his last five games. With the weak goaltending the Hurricanes are set to face this week, Aho and Carolina’s forwards in general could be in for a fun time. That might help Jesperi Kotkaniemi rebound. He has a solid six goals and 13 points in 17 contests but has been held off the scoresheet over the last three contests -- his longest drought so far this campaign.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche will play in Nashville on Monday, host the Canucks on Wednesday, play in Minnesota on Friday, and wrap up with week with a home contest versus Calgary. Vancouver should be a challenge, but the rest of that competition has PTS% below .500.

Colorado endured a rough patch from Oct. 26-Nov. 11, winning just two of seven games, but they’ve bounced back in a huge way, not just winning their last three contests but outscoring the competition a stunning 19-6 over that span.

Cale Makar has been the biggest benefactor of the Avalanche’s offense catching fire, collecting a goal and eight points over the last three contests. Valeri Nichushkin is on fire too, supplying four markers and five points during the same stretch.

Alexandar Georgiev has held his own too, but his save percentage over the last three contests is a merely okay .906. It’s fair to say he’s stabilized after posting a 4.73 GAA and an .842 save percentage over seven outings from Oct. 21-Nov. 11, but there is still some level of concern with him. Still, Pavel Francouz (groin) is not going to play this campaign and Ivan Prosvetov lacks experience, so Georgiev has one of the safest jobs in the league, and the Avalanche offense means he’ll rack up plenty of wins even if he ends up having a subpar campaign.

Nashville Predators

The Predators have a busy week ahead of them. They have home games versus Colorado and Calgary on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. After that, they’ll play in St. Louis on Friday before returning to Nashville to host the Jets on Sunday. The Avalanche and Jets are tough opponents, but the Blues are middling, and Calgary is near the bottom of the pack.

Thomas Novak was off to a great start, providing six goals and 12 points in 14 contests, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 11 because of an upper-body injury and isn’t expected to return until mid-December. Meanwhile, Cody Glass returned Nov. 11 from a lower-body injury. He has no points in seven contests this campaign, but he’s still worth regarding as a short-term pickup. The 24-year-old is averaging 3:46 of power-play ice time, including 5:16 over Nashville’s last two outings.

Cole Smith is another forward who might be good to pick up for a brief period. He’s typically not much of a significant offensive threat, but he did score two goals Saturday, so that could be the start of a hot streak. Even if it’s not, Smith should at least help you in terms of PIM and hits -- he has 24 and 42, respectively, over 16 contests.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils are set to play on the road against the Red Wings on Wednesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Buffalo is playing without Tage Thompson, Detroit has dropped four of its last five and Columbus is Columbus, so New Jersey appears to be in a favorable position.

New Jersey also got Jack Hughes back Saturday, and he picked up right where he left off, providing a goal and an assist versus the Rangers to bring him up to six goals and 22 points through 11 outings this year. However, the Devils are still missing Nico Hischier (upper body) and Timo Meier (lower body), plus Tomas Nosek exited Saturday’s contest with a lower-body injury, so New Jersey’s forward core has some holes.

Michael McLeod has been leaned on heavily, averaging 17:27 of ice time over his last six contests in contrast to 12:09 over his first five. Even with that extra playing time, though, he’s just a mildly okay option in fantasy circles for now, and he doesn’t do enough offensively to make him worth hanging onto long term -- once Hischier returns, McLeod should be dropped in everything but the deepest of leagues.

If you’re looking for someone to grab from New Jersey, Ondrej Palat would be a better option. He’s unlikely to get more than 40 points this season, but he’s factored on the scoresheet for three straight games and four of his last five outings.

New York Islanders

The Islanders are slated to host the Flyers on Wednesday, play in Ottawa on Friday and then return home to face Philadelphia for a rematch Saturday. The Flyers and Senators are decent, but not amazing teams this year, so these should be competitive contests.

That said, the Islanders have also been middling this campaign, and their lackluster 6-6-5 record is largely a symptom of their poor offense -- they're tied for 29th with 2.53 goals per game. However, their offense has shown life recently with the Islanders scoring 11 goals (not including the shootout) over their last three outings.

Mathew Barzal is finally heating up, providing a goal and five points in that three-game stretch, bringing him up to four markers and 15 points through 17 contests overall. Brock Nelson has been a major contributor doing the Islanders’ last three outings too with two goals and four points. He’s unlikely to repeat his career high of 75 points from 2022-23, but a 60-point campaign it’s still reasonable for fantasy managers to hope he finishes with around 60 points. Currently, he has eight goals and 12 points in 17 appearances this year.

Even with the offense starting to do better though, New York is still in a lot of trouble. The Islanders rely on goaltender Ilya Sorokin to be the backbone of the team, and traditionally he’s fulfilled that role admirably. However, through 11 appearances this year, he has a 4-3-4 record, 3.32 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also allowed at least three goals in each of his last six outings to further frustrate fantasy managers. He’s an interesting buy-low candidate though. While the team in front of him isn’t amazing, Sorokin is still likely to rebound.

Seattle Kraken (Mon vs. Cal, Wed vs. SJS, Fri vs. Van)

Seattle has won its last two games and will attempt to build off that with home games against Calgary, San Jose and Vancouver on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively. The Canucks should be a tough matchup, but the Flames and Sharks are vulnerable teams.

Like the Islanders, Seattle’s offense has underwhelmed this year -- it ranks 28th with 2.63 goals per game -- and has similarly shown life recently with 10 non-shootout goals over the last three contests. In the Kraken’s case, it’s been Jordan Eberle leading the charge. He had a rough start to the campaign, supplying just a goal and three points over his first 12 games, but that seems to be behind him after scoring a goal and six points over his past four outings. Despite his initial slump, he’s still a vital part of the Kraken, averaging 17:14 of ice time, including 2:29 with the man advantage, and is likely to finish the campaign with 50-60 points.

Matthew Beniers seems to have turned a corner too. He had just three assists in 11 contests to start the campaign, but since then he went on a three-game scoring streak from Nov. 4-9 (one goal, four points) and has collected two goals and three points over his last two contests. The 21-year-old’s pace of three goals and 10 points through 19 contests is still down compared to his 2022-23 Calder Trophy-winning 57-point campaign, but there’s potential here.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will play in Arizona on Wednesday, return home to play the Predators on Friday and finally travel to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on Sunday. The Coyotes have done alright with an 8-7-2 start to the campaign, but Nashville and Chicago have a combined 11-21-0 record, so getting at least four of six points this week should be the goal for St. Louis.

That said, the Blues have been awfully inconsistent. Five of their nine wins have been by three or more goals, but at the same time, St. Louis has also lost by three or more goals six times. To put that into context, they’re the only team with at least five in each of those categories. You consequently never really know what you’re going to get with the Blues.

If you’re looking for a St. Louis player to consider taking for the week though, Brandon Saad is likely available. After all, he has just three goals and five points through 16 contests this season, so he hasn’t given fantasy managers a lot to be excited about. That said, he still has a top-six role and gets deployed on the second power-play unit, so with the schedule being favorable, he might do well in the short term.

If you already have Jordan Binnington, this should be a good week for him. Joel Hofer gave him a breather Sunday, so Binnington is likely to start in all three of the Blues’ upcoming contests. The starting goaltender is off to a strong start this season with a 2.47 GAA and a .922 save percentage in 12 games. The competition also ranges from middling to poor offensively, with the Coyotes being the best of them with 3.24 goals per game, which puts them in a tie for 16th in the league.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks get to play against the 3-13-1 Sharks twice this week, first at home Monday and then in San Jose on Saturday. Between then, the Canucks will also play in Colorado on Wednesday and Seattle on Friday.

Vancouver has dropped its last two contests, but it’s still an impressive 12-5-1. Incredibly, three of the Canucks players already have 28 points (J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes). Brock Boeser isn’t too far behind with seven goals and 21 points while defenseman Filip Hronek has a goal and 18 points through 18 contests. That’s right: Vancouver has two defensemen averaging at least a point per game.

The Canucks’ current offensive output isn’t likely to be sustained, but it might last at least another week given Seattle ranks 24th defensively, allowing 3.47 goals per game, and San Jose is in the basement with an average of 4.24 goals allowed.

Beyond the usual suspects, that might be good news for Nils Hoglander. He’s averaging just 10:32 of ice time this season, so not a lot should be expected of him long term, but he’s going into the week on a bit of a roll after scoring a goal in back-to-back games. Defenseman Tyler Myers is hot too with four helpers over his last four contests, bringing him up to two goals and nine points in 18 appearances this year.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS – A real test of talent vs. experience and coaching

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 02 May 2023 21:01:38 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 12: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) scores a goal during the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on March 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

Both teams won their first round series in somewhat unconventional fashion. The Devils overcame losing their first two games on home ice to take down the Rangers, making the bold switch to rookie Akira Schmid in goal. Carolina, meanwhile, took care of the Islanders in six games despite getting outscored at five-on-five. They played a close series, keeping the games tight and leaning on their power play when they needed to. Unfortunately, they’re also down another top-six forward after Teuvo Teravainen suffered a broken wrist in Game 2, which means their forward corps is in even more of an “all hands on deck” situation now.

They also took somewhat of a bold approach in goal, rolling with Antti Raanta for the first five games before making the switch to the oft-injured Frederik Andersen in the series clincher. The gamble paid off, as Andersen shut the door for Carolina in Game 6 and gave them an opportunity to complete their comeback. It makes an interesting decision for Game 1, but the Hurricanes have never been afraid to rotate goalies and this situation will be no different. That being said, this type of setup is easier in the regular season when it’s easier to shake off one loss and move on. Making the wrong call in a playoff series is obviously a different story, especially on a team like Carolina where scoring one goal is like trying to dig up gold in the mountains.

The second round has also been a common roadblock for Brind’Amour’s Canes, reaching this point the past two seasons and losing both times despite having the home ice advantage. The road for them is a little easier this year with the Rangers out and Boston going home in stunning fashion, but it’s actually tougher because the East is truly open season now. The Devils have spent years building up this talented core and look like they are ready to take the next step. Jack Hughes had a superstar caliber season, Nico Hischier will create matchup problems against a depleted forward corps and Dougie Hamilton is out to show Carolina he is a playoff performer and one they let get away.

The Devils also showed some real resilience in the first round. There are veterans on the roster, but it’s also this group’s first time in the playoffs in a while, or in their career in the case of Jack Hughes. There were some questions on if the moment was too big for them after dropping the first two games at home in blowout fashion. They responded by winning three straight and closing out the series in a dominant Game 7. It’s one thing to win, but to shutout a team that had you on the mat not even two weeks ago shows some real growth in how this team faces adversity. Carolina had a lot of moments like this early in their playoff career and it led them all the way to the Conference Final in Brind’Amour’s first year. The Devils are looking to go on a similar run.

The Matchup

In a normal situation, the big question around the Hurricanes is can they get enough goals, and will anybody step up when the games get tight? This series might be a little different because they’re going up against one of the most potent rush offenses in the NHL. The Devils are a team that carried the puck in at will all season and were one of the few teams in the playoffs who could do this in the first round. They scored a couple of big goals against the Rangers off controlled entries, including one in overtime and are capable of creating offense from a controlled breakout sequence. Dougie Hamilton and John Marino are very good at doing this and will usually give their forwards a great pass on the tape to help them break structure.

Heck of a rush from a standstill. pic.twitter.com/uoHHDxB1Uo

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) March 17, 2023

This should create problems for Carolina, but their defense is a little more robust than what they saw against the Rangers. Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns are more likely to get in your face and angle you off to the boards as opposed to Lindgren or Trouba who are going to shadow you into the zone and block shots. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce play more similar to the Rangers, using the “bend but don’t break” approach and will be the pair Jersey should target if they want to put Carolina in an open hole. This was a rock-solid duo for Carolina during the regular season but playing the tough matchups for 82 games takes a toll on you around this time of year. The number of hits they’ve taken looked like it started to add up in the Islanders series, as they were on the ice for six of the Isles 11 goals at five-on-five. The Devils might not have the scoring depth they did earlier in the season, but they can make this pair work a lot if they get a step on them at the blue line and create some tough situations for Carolina to defend. The saving grace for Carolina is their third pair is very mobile and capable of handling defensive minutes. Shayne Gostisbehere is still looking for his first power play point, but his play at five-on-five has been spectacular and gives Carolina an extra layer during the 3^rd/4^th line shifts.

As for where Carolina’s goals are going to come from, the answer is also their defense corps. They’ve always acted as more of a complement to the forwards, and this is even more true with the injuries Carolina has up front. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin were more active in the Isles series than they were all season (which is saying something for Burns) and you can look for them to catch New Jersey’s forwards out of position with how much attention they draw high in the zone. They’re also super aggressive with pinching to keep pucks in, which can go both ways with how much New Jersey loves to attack in transition. Counterattacks are what killed the Hurricanes against the Rangers last year and it’s something the Devils will go to school on. Hughes, Hischier, Meier all have the talent to make them pay on this and they also got some goals from their depth lines in the Rangers series. The more times they burn Carolina off counterattacks, the more risk-adverse and point-shot heavy the Hurricanes become, so planting the seed of doubt in their heads early will play a huge factor. Granted, this also involves some risk for the Devils with having the forwards challenge the points and fly the zone. It opens them up to more shots and chances against but that’s a risk you might be willing to take against Carolina.

The X Factor

Both teams managed to advance in the first round despite limited or no production from some of their top players. Timo Meier managed an astonishing zero points in 7 games despite leading the team in scoring chances and playing very well in the Rangers series. It’s only a matter of time until he starts to see some results, but the playoffs can be cruel. The Hurricanes style of defending can also be the best or the worst thing for him because they do not mind giving up chances from close-range as long as the shooter doesn’t have a lot of room to make a move. Meier specializes in going to the net and scoring on brute force, but these are generally lower-percentage plays compared to shots with movement and space. Something has to give.

As for the Hurricanes, they didn’t get much from their leading scorer Martin Necas, scoring only one power play goal all series and looking lost at five-on-five. If the series starts to open up to the Devils terms, Necas is the guy they need to make a difference and he (along with Jesperi Kotkaniemi) struggled with that in the first round. The Devils defensive structure might be a little easier to break than the Islanders physical style, but the playoffs have been tough for Necas in his career. This line in particular was Carolina’s worst against the Islanders, and they spent more time running around in their own zone instead of playing with the puck. When they did get the puck, it was often thrown away in the neutral zone or on a nothing play on the cycle. They showed some flashes of what makes them so dangerous in Game 1, so Carolina is hoping they can see some of this come to life because they will be needed with the Devils having the advantage in forward depth.

The Prediction

This is going to be a real test of talent vs. experience and coaching because the Devils have the clear advantage in the former. The latter is where Carolina can create an advantage. Lindy Ruff made a questionable lineup decision in scratching Jonas Siegenthaler after the Devils lost Game 1 against New York and the physical presence Carolina has could force them into more situations like that. When you’re undermanned, you have to make the most out of the tools you’re given. Carolina’s been able to do that so far, getting goals from the likes of Paul Stastny, Jesper Fast and Mackenzie MacEachern. Jersey should be licking their chops at the forward lines they can roll out against that group, but Carolina’s defensive play is enough to turn most games into a coin-flip. Even if they fall behind, they can own the boards and the territorial play enough to where it’s a tie or a one-goal game. Then it’s just a matter of who can score that big goal when it matters.

Carolina takes a couple gut-punches in this series but takes it in six.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Mirror images of each other, goals will be hard to find

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 16 Apr 2023 15:51:30 +0000

ELMONT, NY - JANUARY 21: Carolina Hurricanes Center Jordan Staal (11) takes a shot on New York Islanders Goalie Ilya Sorokin (30) during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islander on January 21, 2023, at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting:

Sometimes the playoffs can be more of a game of “what have you done for me lately?” Teams can secure their spot before American Thanksgiving and coast the rest of the way while others have to put long winning streaks together in March just to make the dance. This is the case in this first round matchup between the Hurricanes and the Islanders. The Islanders ended the season a high note by clinching a playoff spot in Game 82. They also have reinforcements on the way with Mathew Barzal returning. Carolina, despite winning the Metro, is limping into the playoffs.

Riding high for most of the year, the Hurricanes have struggled mightily since the trade deadline, just barely posting a .500 record in their past 25 games and having question marks all over the roster. They are one of only two playoff teams to have a negative goal differential at five-on-five over their last 25 games, have one of the worst team shooting percentages in the league over that span and aren’t getting any help from the injured list with Andrei Svechnikov going down with an ACL tear just after they opted to not make any major roster tweaks at the trade deadline.

Carolina might be the division winner, but they’re the one with more questions on their roster, which extends to the goalies as neither Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta nor Pyotr Kochetkov has established themselves as the “go-to guy.” Meanwhile, the Isles are getting their star player back and have a sure-thing in net with Ilya Sorokin. If there was an easy upset pick, this would be it.

Although every team that has played the Hurricanes knows that nothing ever comes easy against them, and it will be a grind even if the vibes are all on New York’s side coming in.

The Matchup:

This is somewhat of an ideal first round matchup because both teams are almost mirror images of each other. Both rely more on their team play and goal-scoring by-committee rather than having one star do all the work. They’re also among the stingiest teams in the league, although with somewhat different approaches. The Isles don’t give up a lot of goals, but they do spend a lot of time in their zone and will give up a high number of shots, leaning on Sorokin more than they would like to some nights. Carolina, on the other hand, is all about territorial dominance. They wear teams down in the offensive zone and play more of an aggressive, pressure-based game in the defensive zone to keep the workload light for their goaltenders.

The Islanders were arguably the best matchup for Carolina for this exact reason. They want to spend time on the attack and the Isles will probably give it to them. It’s also a tough matchup for them because the Islanders play a similar style to what did them in against the Rangers. They might not have finishing talent, but the Islanders can counter-attack when the opportunity presents itself. Most of their forwards are good shooters who can strike on limited opportunities and the returning Barzal along with newcomer Engvall give them some puck-carriers who will push for offense. Carolina saw that a little earlier in the season.

Both of these teams love to dump the puck in, especially the Islanders. Both defenses know this and will probably cheat to get a head start on retrieving the puck, so a little deception can go a long way to creating some extra chances. Carolina seems especially vulnerable to that with how shaky their goaltending has been, but they did burn the Islanders in this same game with a couple rush goals of their own.

Squeezing out a couple extra rush chances here and there could go a long way for Carolina, as the Islanders aren’t going to try to attack in transition unless they force a turnover and there’s going to be opportunities for Carolina to counter off failed clears in the neutral zone. Finishing their chances when they get an open look on Sorokin is going to be the tough part and the Isles method of baiting you into an extra pass makes it tougher.

This is where the Islanders stingy defense can be taken advantage of by good passing teams and where the Hurricanes defense corps gives them an edge. They have the second highest scoring defense in the league with Brent Burns and Brady Skjei both scoring 15+ goals a piece and newcomer Shayne Gostisbehere giving them a dynamic passing option from up high. With most of this series being played in the Islanders zone, it’s going to be less about Carolina creating a cumulative number of chances and more about getting one past Sorokin. This is where the games could get frustrating for Carolina if they fall behind because they’re such a shot-volume team and the Isles are content playing that game as long as they block or disrupt. Open ice is available, but it’s going to take a lot of patience and precision for Carolina to capitalize on it.

When the Isles are defending well, they don’t give you much. The slot is blocked off, the shooting lanes are challenged, and they want you to play hot potato with the puck in their own zone forever. It’s an exhausting style of defense, but it works against impatient teams.

This is why the Islanders give up more shots than your standard strong defensive team. They’re content with playing in their own zone for stretches because they stay disciplined with taking away the middle while also pressuring the points and the boards to force quick decisions. It can be exploited, though. Buffalo attempted to do so on a play from behind the net, but just missed on the pass and Pittsburgh also got a shot from the circles (albeit one that Sorokin saw the entire way). Other teams have also been able to capitalize on plays where the Isles get too aggressive with taking away the points.

Again, this isn’t something every team can pull off because it takes pinpoint passing and some risk from the attacking team. The Hurricanes aren’t a team that likes using a forward up high on cycles, unless it’s Sebastian Aho or Martin Necas taking it low-to-high on their own, but it’s something they might have to adjust to if their defense aren’t getting any shooting lanes. Still, they’re very standard with their offensive zone system. Everything goes-low-to-high with forwards crowding the net rather than looking for an extra pass, which could play into the Islanders hands if they get a lead. This is also the quicksand they got stuck in against the Rangers last year, so we will see if they make any adjustments.

X-Factors

This series could potentially have fewer than 15 goals scored at even strength over seven games, so special teams are going to be a major player. Neither team has had much going in this department. Carolina’s power play has been in the top-half of the league most of the year and has slipped back into the bottom-10 over the past two months. Gostisbehere gave them somewhat of a different look after the trade deadline, moving Brent Burns from the point to the right circle, but overall, they’ve struggled to find anything consistent with the man-advantage since losing Andrei Svechnikov. The Isles, meanwhile, have had one of the worst power plays in the league and are the fourth worst team in the league in goals scored with the man-advantage since the trade deadline. The only play they can setup with any consistency is Bo Horvat from the bumper position, so any success they have will be based on rebounds or how many shots Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock can get through, which is tough to do against a Carolina penalty kill that excels at taking away obvious shooting threats.

Something has to give here.

Prediction

This is looking like a seven-gamer. The Islanders have all the momentum on their side, but Carolina didn’t get to first in the division by being a bad team. They’ve also been a very good team in the opening round of the playoffs under Rod Brind’Amour, advancing in all four of his years as head coach (depending on how you want to view the bubble playoffs). The playoffs will be a grind for Carolina, but their five-on-five play should be enough to move them to the second round.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:10:01 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Carolina Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (24) against the New York Rangers during Game 6 of round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs on May 28, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Sebastian Aho

The 24-year-old center has been Mr. Everything for the Hurricanes since joining the team back in 2016, leading the team in most statistical categories while producing at a point-per-game clip for the fourth year in a row. He has gone from the team’s best offensive player to their do-it-all player, frequently playing over 20 minutes a night and getting the matchups usually reserved for Jordan Staal. This includes heavy usage on the penalty kill, an area where he isn’t afraid to push for offense. He embodies Carolina’s tenacious playing style. Looking to pressure and forecheck first but will create if the opportunity presents itself. His explosive skating and great vision give him plenty chances to do this but his knack for goal-scoring is what sets him apart. Whether it’s from the bumper spot or in front of the net, Aho was a pain for goaltenders, potting a career high 37 goals with 13 of them coming on the power play. Game-breakers come in different packages and while Aho creates a lot in transition, most of his goal-scoring comes off “ugly” plays. He will always find a way to make space for himself off a cycle, get to a loose puck in the crease or get a decent one-time off from an awkward angle. This makes him the Hurricanes MVP when considering everything else he brings to the table.

Andrei Svechnikov

While passing the Michigan torch to Trevor Zegras, Svechnikov has emerged as one of the better playmakers in the league, although his assist total didn’t reflect that. Even after a 30-goal season, it felt like he left some offense on the table due to goalposts or poor finishing luck, both from him and his linemates. Creating offense has been so effortless for him since he came into the league and as he gets stronger, it’s been easy for him to get a step on defenders off the rush or winning a battle in front of the net. His underlying stats reflect this, as he is one of the best players in the league at creating scoring chances and high danger passes. It’s plausible to think there’s another level to Svechnikov’s game when taking this into account, especially with scoring increasing across the league. Right now, he’s in that upper echelon of players but inconsistent scoring along with his habit of taking countless undisciplined stick penalties keep him from the elite tier. He could easily be the best player on the Hurricanes by this time next year, as it only takes one stretch where everything clicks to break that glass ceiling.

Teuvo Teravainen

Sometimes good players benefit from playing in great situations and that was the case for Teravainen, scoring 9 power play goals from the right circle as PKs focused on Aho and getting plenty of lay-up scoring chances from Svechnikov. Primarily known as a playmaker and someone you’d have to beg to shoot the puck, Teravainen regained some of his goal-scoring touch and made the most of getting to play with some talented linemates. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for him, as he’s usually Aho’s wingman but his role is more about giving his linemates space, quick passes from the boards and great defensive positioning rather than highlight reel goals. As one of the smartest and longest tenured players on the team, Teravainen can probably excel in any role coach Brind’Amour puts him in. He might be leaned on for more goal-scoring now with Trocheck and Niederreiter going out the door and Pacioretty not available until February. Some of the extra offense they got from Teravainen came at the expense of his usually elite defensive play, which is a sacrifice the Hurricanes might be willing to make if they need him to be more than just the steady, complementary piece on the top line.

Max Pacioretty

When healthy, Pacioretty is exactly what the Hurricanes needed in the playoffs. A winger who can give them an “easy” goal while being a fit for the team’s forechecking system. Unfortunately, they won’t have him in their lineup for the first four months of the season, as he will be recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. This is after a season where he was limited to only 39 games after a foot injury in October and wrist surgery in December. Scoring only seven goals in the 22 games after surgery, it’s fair to wonder if he is still has the power behind his shot that made him such a coveted goal-scorer. Not that players haven’t recovered from injuries before, but the Hurricanes will only have Pacioretty for this season and need an immediate impact out of him. We saw him adjust after the injury, scoring most of his goals from close range or off deflections instead of the perimeter and finding sneaky ways to get himself open. Carolina was a perfect match for him on paper, as they’re a team that dominates the territorial play and needs more finish. Pacioretty should give that to them in theory, but they will need to wait awhile before seeing it in action.

Jordan Staal

Now in his mid-30’s, Staal got off to the slowest start of his career, tallying only two goals and 11 points through the first 41 games. His size and strength kept him high in the lineup, but the lack of offense was a genuine concern for the Canes captain. Then the switch flipped in the second half of the year and the went on a mini tear, scoring 15 goals in his final 37 games and finishing with a respectable scoring line. Staal does so much for the team as their top defensive center that any offense he produces is just gravy, but those who have watched him for awhile knew it was a matter of time before the dam broke for him. His line with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast was very important for the Hurricanes if they needed a good shift after a goal or when they got hemmed in. The approach was very basic, get below the goal line and go to work, but it was the team’s identity and eventually Staal got some reward for it. Niederreiter leaving might be a big hit to Staal’s goal-production, but the Hurricanes have enough worker bee type wingers that they should be able to find a good running mate for him this year. Hopefully the offense will be a little more consistent.

Seth Jarvis

It was impressive how seamlessly Jarvis fit into the Hurricanes lineup. Not seeing his first game until Halloween, it was obvious from the get-go that he wasn’t going back to the WHL anytime soon. His speed and insane lower body strength made him a fit on the fourth line and he quickly earned a promotion to the top-six. Fitting in as a player who could bring a high-motor element to Aho’s line for quick-strike offense and as a grinder who could get Aho or Svechnikov the puck from below the dots or vice versa. Being a right-shot wing also helped, as it was easier for him to receive some of Aho’s passes in the slot or off give-and-go’s in the neutral zone. Combine that with the pace he plays at and Jarvis was exactly what the team needed heading into last year and someone they could heavily rely on for offense next year. Only 20 years old, he should be trending upwards but there is going to be more pressure on him to produce with some of the roster departures. Jarvis was arguably the team’s best forward in the playoffs, which is a great sign if the Hurricanes want him to be a core player going forward.

Martin Necas

One year ago, Necas looked like an emerging star. The way he processed the game was so different from everyone else on the team, creating offense out of nothing and pulling the Hurricanes back into games on his own. He had his flaws, but they were the kind you live with because he looked like the type of player who could shift the momentum on a dime. Unfortunately, this didn’t carry over. Offense didn’t come as easy for Necas and he found himself trying to do too much on his own, leading to a lot of missed plays and prolonged scoring droughts. The talent is still there, he is one of the Hurricanes best players at setting up shots, but he had trouble when no passing options were available, and he had to take the puck to the net on his own. He would circle the net or get caught in between passing and shooting, leading to missed chances or him shoveling the puck on goal from an awkward angle. Quicker decision making is required with the Hurricanes, but the cerebral nature of Necas’ game is what makes him a special talent and you don’t want to take that away. He had a good season and was a big part of Carolina’s aggressive penalty kill, but there is another level to his game that Carolina will have to unlock.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Carolina’s decision to offer-sheet Kotkaniemi and treat him as if he’s an older prospect was a little confusing. The 22-year-old spent most of last season on the fourth line and only saw an increased role in short spells. The decision to sign him to a seven-year contract is a steep bet, making him part of the team’s core going forward. His first year with Carolina was solid, but there is always an asterisk when you’re projecting someone who played fourth line minutes to jump into a 2C role. He played good minutes in Montreal, but some similar issues remain. He has one of the best shots on the team, but it takes an extra second for him to release it and will opt for the simple play more times than not. Most of his offense was off long cycles where the team was already setup in the offensive zone and while he made some progress there, it was against a lot of depth defensemen and checking line players. Some players can make the jump to the top-six seamlessly and Kotkaniemi will be setup to succeed with Carolina’s great depth on the wings. It might work in his favor, as he will have some more space to create instead of having to constantly fight off checks on the fourth line. He will also be tasked with carrying more of a workload in transition and the defensive zone, something he can do but didn’t have much of a role in last year. The former third overall pick might not live up to his draft status, but he has shown signs of becoming a good middle-six center, which is what the Hurricanes are paying him to be, if he can make the ice-time jump.

Jesper Fast

Someone is going to have to pick up the slack with Carolina’s offense and a dark horse candidate for that is Jesper Fast. He was quietly one of the team’s better 5v5 goal-scorers last year, recording a career-high 14 goals most of which coming while standing in front of the net after Nino Niederreiter or Jordan Staal won a puck below the goal-line. A responsible defensive forward, Fast has shown some offensive flashes in the past and the defined role on Jordan Staal’s line worked to his favor. Most of his game is based on positioning and making quick plays to help with breakouts and being a disruptive force on the forecheck, but he got to show some of his skill last year. Having some offensive pop on top of posting some of the best underlying numbers on the team is never a bad thing. It’s tough to say if his goal-scoring ways will continue last year, as he lost a key linemate in Nino Niederreiter. That said, he should continue to be a key part of the Canes third line. He could see some second power play unit time, as he played the netfront role in the past.

DEFENSE

Brent Burns

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Brent Burns, so the two questions heading into this year are how much he will play and how will switching teams effect his point total. The big change with him over the last two years is that his shot volume totals have plummeted, which in turn hurt his counting stats. Burns production has declined along with the Sharks play and now he’s going to a team notorious for spending most of the game in the offensive zone. Logic suggests that Burns will see a bit of a return to form, as his puck skills haven’t declined as much as his point totals suggest. Burns was still one of the better blue-liners in the league at setting up scoring chances, creating offense off the rush and exiting the zone. The only thing that has been missing is the shot volume and ability to command the offensive zone like he did in the Sharks heyday. Will that change with the Hurricanes and their strong forecheck, or will it be similar to last year with the Sharks as the Canes have seen some of their forward talent leave via free agency? It will be interesting to see this work in action. He brings a similar profile to what they had in both Dougie Hamilton and Tony DeAngelo but is much older with two careers worth of ice-time on his tires.

Jaccob Slavin

The modern-day shutdown defenseman, Slavin is the type of player who could put up zero points and still have a positive impact. There are few players in the league who are as good at skating forwards into a corner or using their stick as him. He also covers a ton of ground in the defensive zone, disrupting most plays before they even start and quickly getting the puck out of the zone to relieve pressure. He was tasked with more of an offensive role last year with Tony DeAngelo as his partner. He ended up having a career year in points and showed some real upside there, especially with shooting for deflections and making soft passes to the front of the net from the left point. It was the most growth he has shown in that part of the game, at least at even strength, running the power play is something he hasn’t quite figured out yet. While he didn’t play pure shutdown minutes, Slavin still played 23-25 minutes a night and was the Jenga piece for Carolina’s blue line. If he had an off night, it was usually bad news for the Canes. Those were few and far between though as he had a stellar season and adapted to playing in more offensive situations. This should continue next year with the roving Brent Burns projected to be his defense partner.

Brett Pesce

Looking at Brett Pesce’s profile and watching him play is quite the contrast. He’s tall but not towering, has a good frame but isn’t physically intimidating. His shot isn’t very powerful, a great skater with good edges but not a burner like Cale Makar. He looks like someone who would top out as a depth defenseman at the NHL level, but he is one of the better shutdown defenders in the league. Playing a pure defensive role with Brady Skjei for the past two years has been up-and-down for him. He can still break-up plays at the blue line better than most and can skate his way out of pressure. His defensive impact, however, usually varies depending on who he is paired with. A predictable partner like Slavin or Calvin de Haan will yield good results for him while a more aggressive, roaming partner like Skjei or Edmundson will leave him covering for more mistakes and sometimes it’s too much for him to handle. This was the case for him at times last year, but history suggests that he will rebound and return to the reliable defender he was for most of his career. A down year for him is a good year for most in the league.

Brady Skjei

2021-22 was a revival for Skjei and it came out of nowhere. After seemingly topping out as a low-end 4/5 defenseman, he had a career year offensively and posted some of his best underlying stats since his rookie year. All awhile playing a tough shutdown role with Brett Pesce. The Hurricanes have done well to make the game easier for Skjei, giving him the greenlight to join the rush and allowing him to stand up at the line with Pesce or a forward backing him up if he gets beat. His size and skating were always going to be his calling cards and translating it to game situations was the challenge. This started to come around last year, he had a career season offensively and looked like a threat to score instead of someone who would spam low percentage shots from the boards. The high-risk nature of his game is still an issue, but it's something the Hurricanes are more content with now that they’re seeing the rewards. It gives the Hurricanes second pair a different look even though their primary job is shutting down top lines. Skjei’s aggressive nature and playing style was a big part of that with how often he would pinch to keep pucks in, push for offense or quickly re-enter the zone after a long shift. He had 39 points with zero power play time last year, so he could challenge for a spot on the second unit if Slavin continues to struggle there.

GOALTENDING

Frederik Andersen

When Carolina opted to jettison all their existing goaltenders in favor of a pair of over-thirty veterans with lengthy injury histories, it seemed hard to put big money down in favor of a successful Hurricanes year; after all, it would only take one ill-timed pair of injuries to both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the team to find themselves out in the wind with the playoffs on the line.

Luckily, the gamble worked out in their favor – and while neither vet had been willing to sign on a year-by-year basis, Andersen’s year was impressive enough to feel comfortable with him coming back for yet another season with the Metropolitan Division club. At 32-years old, Andersen .922 unadjusted save percentage and four shutouts were good for a whopping 35 team wins and the goaltender’s best statistical season since his rookie year. Very few goaltenders are able to do a complete one-eighty after struggling as hard as Andersen did during his final year in Toronto – but whatever Carolina did clearly worked. After a year of watching the Danish netminder struggle to accurately read shot rebounds and recover comfortably in order to face second shots, Andersen’s sharp instincts looked good as new during the 2021-22 season. He didn’t change much about his core style – he remained a goaltender who seems most comfortable pushing forward into shots and holding down the fort with clear sightlines instead of asking his defense to crowd his crease, with a preference for cutting down open space instead of waiting out shooters. But instead of fighting against the defensive system in front of him, which he seemed to be almost forced to do during his tenure in Toronto, he was able to play to his strengths with the Hurricanes and hit his stride. His only negative was the lack of consistency he posted; despite having some of the league’s best numbers, his quality start percentage sat just a hair above the average. But as long as he’s able to truly split the net with tandem partner Antti Raanta, which should prevent the more-consistent Finnish veteran from suffering more injuries, that shouldn’t be a big enough problem to hurt the Hurricanes in their push to hit the Stanley Cup Final.

Projected starts: 45-50

Antti Raanta

After nearly a decade in the NHL, it seems fair to say that Antti Raanta is a known entity in net. The 33-year-old former Blackhawks, Rangers, and Coyotes backstop remains one of the NHL’s most reliable goaltenders from a performance standpoint – so long as you don’t need him to hold down the fort entirely on his own for lengthy periods of time. Even when playing a true tandem with Frederik Andersen, Raanta suffered a slew of minor injuries that kept him out of games and left Andersen to man the pipes without him.

As Carolina seems to have figured out, though, Raanta still provides incredible value in a tandem situation. He didn’t put up quite the same level save percentage that Andersen did during his 28 regular season games with the Hurricanes, but that was more a byproduct of his consistency than it was a problem with his quality of performance. His quality start percentage matched Andersen’s nearly perfectly, and he only posted one start that classified as a Really Bad Start using Rob Vollman’s metric (which calculates the percentage of starts a goaltender actively inhibits his team’s chance of winning a game, recording a save percentage below 85%). In comparison, Andersen – who played in just under double the number of games Raanta did – posted five Really Bad Starts; while Andersen clearly posted higher highs than Raanta, he also posted lower lows. That’s a benefit of the structured, utilitarian style that Raanta plays; despite being one of the smallest goaltenders in the league, he keeps his skates within the blue paint and relies on patience to goad shooters into showing their hands before he drops to his knees. He lacks some of the high-end speed and lower body power that would likely push him into elite territory, particularly now that he’s so prone to lower-body bumps and bruises. But despite a game that doesn’t particularly challenge the Andrei Vasilevskiys and Igor Shesterkins of the league, his baseline remains incredibly strong – and best of all, he knows exactly what he is and what he’s capable of. Raanta’s spatial awareness sits among some of the best in the league, which gives him enough of an advantage to allow him to slow his game down a bit to ease up on his hips and groin. He may not be a sure bet as a reliable split-share netminder anymore, but he’s unlikely to hurt Carolina much, either.

Projected starts: 35-40

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: CAROLINA VS. BOSTON – Goaltending key in defensive battle that should be a close, grinding series

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 14:04:12 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 10: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) looks in front during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Carolina Hurricanes on February 10, 2022 at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

CAROLINA vs. BOSTON

The Hurricanes won the Metropolitan Division, and they still have to face a quality Bruins team that has had some inconsistency throughout the season but finished strong and should be as lively as any underdog in the first round.

This series figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle, a style that both teams have used to thrive down the stretch.

Forwards

Although the Carolina Hurricanes have a solid group of forwards, they do not have the most explosive bunch. Sebastian Aho, Evgeny Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen are highly skilled, productive players and are reliable leaders. The supporting cast has quality pieces but has limits on its offensive upside. Vincent Trocheck and Jordan Staal are strong middle-six pivots and wingers are all capable contributors. Carolina’s depth is a strong point, as Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter, Seth Jarvis, and Jesper Fast Max Domi can offer more than standard fourth-line contributions. The takeaway is that the Hurricanes are not positioned to run up the score; it is more like score enough and control play, so the opposition does not have the chance to get back into the game.

The Bruins seem to have found a few answers down the stretch, moving Jake DeBrusk to the right wing alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron on the top line. That trio has controlled 68.6% of 5v5 shot attempts and 72.1% of expected goals, which is utterly ridiculous. Bergeron has been outstanding all season, no matter who is on his wing, and he will be vital to any Boston success in the series. Another spot that has been filled for the Bruins is that of second line center, with Erik Haula ending up between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak. Moving Pastrnak off the top line has provided more balance for the Bruins but the challenge will be whether they can get reliable enough performance from third and fourth lines that are not so impressive.

Defense

Carolina is such a well-rounded team that virtually every defense pairing they roll out ends up on the right side of the puck possession ledger. Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce have been recognized as high-quality defenders, after spending the early years of their careers described as underrated, and they each anchor a pairing; Slavin with Tony DeAngelo and Pesce with Brady Skjei. Add in Ian Cole and Ethan Bear on the third pair and it is no coincidence that the Hurricanes allowed the lowest rate of shot attempts during 5v5 play and lowest goals against per 60 minutes in all situations this season.

Boston’s defensive record is impressive, too. Since the trade deadline, when they acquired Hampus Lindholm from the Anaheim Ducks, the Bruins rank second in the league in rate of 5v5 shot attempts against, expected goals against, and goals against per 60 minutes. Charlie McAvoy has emerged as one of the premier defensemen in the game and beyond McAvoy and Lindholm there is a mix of puck movers, like Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly, as well as big bodies, like Brandon Carlo and Derek Forbort. Considering how effective the Bruins and Hurricanes have been when it comes to shot suppression, this is effectively a battle between shutdown teams.

Goaltending

Frederik Andersen had a wonderful bounce-back season in his first year with the Hurricanes, but a late-season lower-body injury puts his status in doubt for at least the start of the series. Antti Raanta has been a quality backup and should be a competent replacement, but questionable goaltending does have the potential to be a problem for Carolina.

Boston has been running the tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman and both have been above league average this season but neither has been a star performer. That could be part of the reason to expect that both Boston goalies will have a chance to play against Carolina.

Special Teams

Boston’s power play was around league average over the entire season but that includes a 0-for-40 stretch late in the season. They have the personnel – Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Hall, and McAvoy – that should be better than merely average.

The Hurricanes have been better than average with the man advantage so that might offer a slight edge on the Bruins.

While the Bruins have been better than average on the penalty kill, allowing 6.33 goals per 60 minutes of 4v5 play, the Hurricanes have the best penalty killing in the league, allowing the lowest rates of shot attempts, shots, goals, and expected goals during 4v5 play and by a substantial margin in each category. Given the importance of power plays in a short series, Carolina’s penalty killing could be a difference maker.

Conclusion

The Hurricanes play a sound structural game and while they might not put up eye-popping offensive numbers, their ability to shutdown the opposition will present a challenge for the Bruins. Goaltending is a concern in any playoff series, especially if a team is missing its starter, and that might be the path that leads to a Bruins upset, but this series should be a grind, a close and competitive grind. Hurricanes in 7.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:49:28 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

#1 Coming off a torn ACL last season, New York Islanders captain Anders Lee had a rough start to this season, managing four goals and no assists through his first 15 games. His performance since then has been uneven – some good, some bad – but Lee is now on a six-game goal-scoring streak, during which he has 10 points (9 G, 1 A).and 19 shots on goal. Since 2017-2018, Lee has scored 123 goals in 311 games to rank 28^th in the league over that time.

#2 In deep leagues, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse has had value from time to time because he provides hits in addition to modest offensive contributions but what happens when the scoring contributions are more than modest? In his past six games, Crouse has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A), 11 shots and 19 hits. Crouse is up to a career-high 19 goals in 59 games.

#3 Sticking with the trend of big wingers making a mark, Minnesota Wild left winger Jordan Greenway has not had a terribly productive season, but Greenway recently missed a couple of weeks with an injury and since returning to action has contributed three points (2 G, 1 A), 13 shots on goal, and 12 hits in five games.

#4 With Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf with a knee injury, opportunity is knocking for Valeri Nichushkin, a powerful winger that I have recommended at various times this season already, but he’s now skating on Colorado’s top line and getting first-unit power play time. In his past 21 games, Nichushkin has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 59 shots on goal, but the chance to play with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is even more appealing than Nichushkin’s recent level of production.

#5 Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot has suffered a broken hand which could keep him out for the rest of the season, and for fantasy purposes, it opens the door for someone else to quarterback the Ottawa power play. Enter Erik Brannstrom, a 22-year-old puck-mover who has just five assists in 31 games. Brannstrom played a career-high 27:53 in the Senators’ last game, so he may be looking at an opportunity to play a big role down the stretch for Ottawa.

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 16: Ottawa Senators Center Josh Norris (9) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 16, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Senators center Josh Norris missed five weeks with a shoulder injury, but he has been excellent since returning to the lineup, tallying eight points (6 G, 2 A) along with 19 shots on goal in eight games. Norris has played 100 NHL games over the past two seasons, scoring 41 goals. His 0.41 goals per game across the past two seasons is tied with the likes of Mitch Marner, Mika Zibanejad, Andrew Mangiapane, and Matt Duchene.

#7 Moved to the Edmonton Oilers top line with Connor McDavid and Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto is starting to produce after what has been a mostly mediocre season. He started the year with just six points (5 G, 1 A) in his first 28 games but has started to come around. During his current four-game goal-scoring streak, Yamamoto has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 11 shots on goal.

#8 Industrious Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Ondrej Kase has been a welcome source of secondary scoring for the Leafs. In his past six games, Kase has six points (4 G, 2 a) and 14 shots on goal. In the past couple of games, he has been skating on the second line, with Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander, which offers a little more offensive upside than when he skates on the wing of David Kampf’s line.

#9 With Bruins center Patrice Bergeron injured, Boston is dependent on the rest of their centers to fill the void. This is an opportunity for Charlie Coyle to step up and Coyle has been more productive recently, delivering 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 16 games. Coyle has 33 points in 61 games this season and that 0.54 points per game is his highest since 2017-2018.

#10 The Calgary Flames made another savvy move before the trade deadline, acquiring versatile forward Calle Jarnkrok from the Seattle Kraken. Jarnkrok has been playing 16:48 per game this season, tying his average time on ice last season for the highest of his career, and there is a decent chance that he will not be required to play that much in Calgary. Jarnkrok has 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 49 games, the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has averaged better than 0.50 points per game. That should fit comfortably in the Flames’ middle six up front.

#11 The other big trade from Wednesday was the Florida Panthers paying a big price to get defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens. Chiarot has deep league fantasy appeal, particularly after a recent scoring surge saw him put up nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his last nine games for the Habs. With Chiarot departing, the most obvious candidate to fill that ice time on the Canadiens blueline is Joel Edmundson, the veteran blueliner who has just returned to the lineup, playing his first two games of the season.

#12 Earlier in the week, the Colorado Avalanche made a big acquisition with their deal for veteran right-shot defenseman Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks. Manson only has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 45 games this season, but he did have three points in his last three games with the Ducks before the trade. While the scoring numbers may not make much of a difference in Colorado, Manson had 10 hits in his first game for the Avs, so there might be some peripheral stats value for fantasy managers.

#13 With Boone Jenner sidelined, Jack Roslovic has moved up the depth chart for the Columbus Blue Jackets and sometimes all that is needed is a better opportunity. In his past 12 games, Roslovic has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal. Roslovic had a breakthrough season last year, scoring 34 points in 48 games, but his ice time is way down this season, from 16:54 per game last season to 12:38 per game this season.

#14 21-year-old Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton has taken some time to make his mark since he was the fifth overall pick in the 2018 Draft, but he should be looking at a consistent role for the rest of the season as Arizona tries to find players that can be part of the long-term plan in the desert. In Hayton’s case, he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and that might give him some sleeper value late in the season.

#15 Florida Panthers rookie goaltender Spencer Knight was a potential Calder Trophy candidate coming into the season, but his performance was underwhelming enough that he ended getting sent to the AHL where he had a .905 save percentage in 11 games, hardly an assurance that he would be able to handle his return to the NHL, but Knight has been excellent since returning to the Panthers, posting a .928 save percentage in four starts.

#16 Carolina Hurricanes backup goaltender Antti Raanta has had trouble staying healthy for long enough to secure a starting job, but he has performed well enough to have value when he is healthy. In his past six starts for the ‘Canes, Raanta has a .930 save percentage, lifting his save percentage for the season to .917. For fantasy spots starts, Raanta is worth considering.

#17 Since the All-Star break, the NHL leaders in primary points (goals plus first assists) per game (minimum 10 games): Patrick Kane, J.T. Miller, Auston Matthews, Elias Lindholm, Nick Schmaltz, Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor McDavid, Clayton Keller, Jack Hughes, and Kirill Kaprizov. Miller is playing as well as he ever has while Schmaltz and Keller are driving Arizona’s sudden offensive explosion. Hughes has been playing at a star level since returning from injury.

#18 Nashville defenseman Roman Josi has produced a whopping 28 points in his last 15 games, surging into the scoring lead among defensemen with 72 points in 59 games, ahead of Colorado’s Cale Makar, who has 66 points in 57 games.

#19 Since the All-Star break, the players with the highest rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Viktor Arvidsson, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Victor Olofsson, Arthur Kaliyev, David Pastrnak, Nic Hague, and Jake Walman. Some of those names are familiar and expected but Kings rookie winger Kaliyev along with Golden Knights defenseman Hague and Blues defenseman Walman are more surprising.

#20 Skaters with the highest on-ice xGF/60 since the All-Star break (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Mitch Marner, Patrice Bergeron, Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren, Michael Bunting, Connor McDavid, Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen, Evan Bouchard, and Trevor Moore. Toronto’s top line is dominating and Bergeron, McDavid, and Rantanen are entirely expected to create quality scoring chances, but young defensemen Liljegren, Harley, and Bouchard are driving positive results when they are on the ice.

#21 The players that have been most snakebit since the All-Star break, with the greatest difference between their all-situations expected goals and their actual goals: Brendan Gallagher, Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Copp, Rasmus Asplund, Alex Iafallo, Roope Hintz, Nazem Kadri, Joe Pavelski, John Tavares, and Mikko Rantanen. From that group, I would expect Hintz, Tavares, and Rantanen to be the most likely to see their goal-scoring numbers improve down the stretch.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

Numbers At Work: Canes keep winning, Dueling Connors, Pettersson’s struggles

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 23 Nov 2021 22:24:43 +0000

Team of the Week: Carolina

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 21:Frederik Andersen (31) of the Carolina Hurricanes makes the save during the second period of the NHL game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Montreal Canadiens on October 21, 2021, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

The Carolina Hurricanes have been on an incredible run to start the year and it continued last week on their West Coast trip where one thing became obvious: they are terrible at losing hockey games. Carolina hasn’t had a truly dominant performance this month. They’ve blown a lead in each of their last four games and found a way to win all of them in regulation, Saturday’s win over the Kings being a great example. Both teams traded goals for two periods until Martin Necas scored late in the second period, which ended up being the game winner. With 11 players sitting at three goals or more, the Canes have had a different line step up for them every night and it’s been fun to watch them defy the odds.

That has been the theme for them early on because even though they’re coming off a great season, they let a lot of talent walk out the door this summer. Not many teams can absorb losing a defenseman like Dougie Hamilton for nothing. He did so much to change the complexion of this roster and take them to the next level that they weren’t going to replace him one-for-one. What they can do, however, is attempt to replace him by committee. Enter Ethan Bear, a small but underrated defenseman who they acquired in a trade with the Oilers.

Bear has been handling most of the minutes alongside Jaccob Slavin on Carolina’s top pair along with some heavy penalty killing duty and replaces some of the subtle qualities Hamilton brought to the table. The most important of which is efficiently getting the puck out of the zone. A pillar of how the Hurricanes want to play is their forecheck and playing on the attack. Bear’s strength on breakouts helps them with this because even if he isn’t the one getting the puck out of the zone, he is usually the first one back to retrieve the puck and help the forwards move the play forward. This goes both ways because it helps Carolina push for offense when they need to and defend leads when all they need is a simple clear.

This isn’t the full season (11 Carolina games), but it’s an enough sample to get a picture. The y-axis shows the workload each defenseman has with retrieving loose pucks in the defensive zones (whether that’s off dump-ins or general loose pucks) and the x-axis shows how often their retrievals led to a successful zone exit (can be with or without possession). Bear and Slavin see the biggest workload here and they’ve done an excellent job of either getting the puck out of harm’s way or starting a breakout.

Bear put on a clinic in this department in Carolina’s 3-2 win over Vegas last week, successfully advancing the puck six times on nine retrievals while having six exits with possessions on his own.

Just an excellent display of the modern style of defending where being strong on your skates, taking hits to make plays and efficiently moving the puck is what yields great results, which the Canes have gotten out of their top pair so far. It’s an interesting dynamic because Carolina’s replaced Hamilton with three players at lower costs. You have Tony DeAngelo replacing him in the offensive zone, Ian Cole replacing his physical play in the defensive zone and Ethan Bear replacing him in the transition game. It’s tough to say how sustainable it is because none of these players are stars, but they complement Carolina’s two rocks in Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin to give them a great top-four that gets things done by-committee.

The last point is Carolina’s strength, winning by-committee. If you go down their roster there aren’t many players who look out of their depth. They aren’t loaded with stars, but they have 12 forwards who will win their shifts more times than not and six defensemen who they can rotate on a situational basis. It’s made them tough to matchup with, especially with so many teams struggling with injuries early on in the year. It also helps that their newly form top line can turn games around for them at any given moment.

Carolina’s newly formed top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and rookie Seth Jarvis has only been together for a few games, but in about 62 minutes at 5v5, they are posting an Expected Goals percentage of 53.4% and have produced five goals while only giving up two. Aho and Svechnikov have been linemates before and while they both complement each other well, Jarvis gives them a volume shooter who can actually finish. The youngster has only nine games to his credit, but he has shown a great nose for the net and an uncanny ability to retrieve loose pucks in the slot, which will do wonders for you with all the open space Carolina’s stars will open up. Aho’s such a patient and cerebral player with the puck and Svechnikov has shined as playmaker the last couple of years, so Jarvis’ shoot-first mentality is a perfect fit for how these two are playing. Time will tell if they stay linemates long-term, but the rookie’s had a fantastic start to his career.

I love this shift in particular because you get a look at how strong Carolina’s top line is on the forecheck and how it can lead to rush opportunities on the regroup. You have what looks like a slow, plodding shift in the offensive zone that isn’t going to lead to much except perimeter shots. Which is fine, but not ideal for your top line. However, it’s important because the Canes forwards don’t back off while the Kings are trying to breakout. The two defensemen maintain a strong gap along the wall to keep the Kings hemmed in and take a look at the forward applying the main pressure on the breakout, it’s 24 Seth Jarvis. He does enough to force a telegraphed pass to the middle, which Aho picks off and Jarvis gets a golden chance in the slot as the F3 with Svechnikov there in support. It’s fantastic teamwork for these three and why you’ll likely see Jarvis on the team for the entire year.

Finally, we have to talk about Frederik Andersen. The most controversial move Carolina made in the off-season was trading goaltender and Calder nominee Alex Nedeljkovic and replacing him with a veteran in Andersen (and Antti Raanta). So far, that gamble has paid off. Carolina would still be sitting well without superhuman goaltending, but Andersen’s .937 save percentage has separated them from the pack. Not every team is going to be firing on all cylinders every game and Andersen has been there to clean up some of Carolina’s messes when they’ve had a bad period or two. He has started all but three of their games and has been arguably their MVP to start the year, which is saying a lot when you consider how good the rest of the team is.

It will be interesting to see where this team is when they hit a rut, because they’ve done an excellent job of pulling themselves together in a lot of games that could have gone either way this year. It speaks volumes to the depth of this roster and the coaching job from Rod Brind’Amour’s staff.

Freddy Andersen, what happens when this normalizes?

Three Microstat Stars

Andrew Mangiapane vs. Buffalo

The Flames winger is making the graduation from analytics darling to household name, scoring 15 goals in 19 games to start the year. Those who followed Calgary knew of Mangiapane’s talent and his play-driving skills, but there’s maybe a handful of people in the world who expected this kind of production from him. Some if it is flukey, there aren’t any players good enough to score on over 30% of their shots like he is right now, but if you watch him you can see why he’s converting at such a high rate. He creates a lot of chances through his speed and anticipating where the play is going rather than where the puck is. This was on full display in Calgary’s 5-0 win over the Sabres where Mangiapane recorded 9 shots, 6 scoring chances, and 7 controlled zone entries. Just a solid all-around player who is finally getting his due on the scoresheet.

Kyle Connor vs. Edmonton

In the battle of the Connors, Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor got it done at both ends of the rink, contributing to 13 of Winnipeg’s shots, 6 of their scoring chances and producing 12 controlled zone entries and exits, helping the Jets attack off the rush and go blow for blow with the Oilers high powered offense. There’s been a little more to his game this year than just the quick-strike offense, as him and Pierre-luc Dubois have been Winnipeg’s two best players to start the year and one of the better duos in the league.

Leon Draisaitl vs. Winnipeg

In an effort to not name McDavid every week, we’re going to give some love to his running mate this week, as he had another excellent game in the Oilers rubber match against the Jets. Draisaitl contributed to 12 of the Oilers five-on-five shots and six of their scoring chances while also producing three scoring chances off zone entries. Usually a selective shooter, Draisaitl was a little more assertive in this game, driving the net and using his feet to create offense instead of waiting for a one-timer. There are few players in the league who can generate instant offense like him, and this was just another night at the office.

What’s Wrong with: Elias Pettersson

There is a lot more wrong with Vancouver than just Elias Pettersson not producing, but the young star is currently stuck on 10 points in 19 games, only two of which coming at five-on-five. The word “struggling” doesn’t even begin to describe this. Pettersson is a tough guy to evaluate when the points aren’t coming because he’s a player who will convert on a high percentage of his chances rather than pile up a bunch of microstats. That said, in his best seasons, the Canucks usually run their offense through him and Quinn Hughes at the left point. What makes Pettersson special is how efficient he is with shooting and creating high danger chances out of nothing. So far, he hasn’t produced much of anything.

What this shows here is how much offense each player produces by either shooting or creating a shot for a teammate. Right now, Pettersson is doing neither. Some of this might relate to the wrist injury that kept him out for most of last season and missing training camp, but special players can usually make an impact regardless. It’s hard to imagine that one of the league’s most unique players would just forget how to play hockey over the course of the season, so we should expect this to even out. That said, when looking at some of Pettersson’s shifts, you can see some of the issues with him and how the Canucks play.

There are a few things to point out with Vancouver’s style of play here. First is that they defer to their defense for shots more than most teams. This doesn’t mean they always go to the point, but they want to play a hard, forechecking style that wears teams down. That means lots of shots from the point, forwards screening the goalie and retrieving the puck. Pettersson does a good job to gain possession and help this, but it kind of puts his skillset to waste because he’s stuck chasing the play and making simple passes instead of looking for the next best play. It doesn’t help that Vancouver’s forwards make a bee-line straight to the net to screen the net, making it easier for defensemen to key-in on what they’re trying to do because there’s no motion or deception.

It’s a playing style that has worked for a lot of teams, but Pettersson’s ceiling is probably limited if he’s stuck in a system where the defensemen are controlling all the offense. Just look at the initial zone entry in the first clip. Pettersson’s gets a break, but there’s no support or lane to the net, so he has to rim it around the boards to setup a cycle instead of making a play to the net. Some of this is going to normalize over the course of the season, but it’s tough to say that the Canucks are doing their star any favors with how they’re playing or the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

Rookie Watch: Dawson Mercer

It’s been tough to find good finishers in New Jersey, which makes Dawson Mercer very easy to notice. The 20-year-old has quickly found his way to a top-six goal with the Devils, doing an excellent job alongside Andreas Johnsson and Jesper Bratt, getting between the circles to create high danger chances while those two work the puck along the perimeter and creating some opportunities for himself off the rush.

It’s still early and all, but there’s a strong chance he can sustain this level of play and maybe even see more of a reward for it on the scoresheet than 12 points in 16 games (which is still pretty darn good).

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Sharing the Crease – How the emergence of the goaltender tandem could change your drafting needs

Catherine Silverman — Mon, 09 Sep 2019 21:17:41 +0000

For decades upon decades, the NHL was largely a one-goaltender league. Exceptions were made for the very old, the very young, and the not-very-good — and of course, every team technically had two goaltenders in the lineup on any given night. But if a team had found a goaltender good enough to win them games, they did their best to give him every opportunity to do that — literally.

No part of the game has undergone a more drastic change than goaltending, though. The position has gone from being one of the most stationary in the game to arguably the most physically demanding, requiring both fine-tuned mechanics and immense levels of core strength.

The game was once played from a goaltender’s skates, with a handful of diving saves and sprawling poke checks to keep things interesting. Now, it’s largely played from a goaltender’s knees, relying on that core strength to add an extra height dimension to an already-impressive range of mobility in order to keep up with the way shooters keep finding new ways to score. It’s no longer a game that relies purely on instinct; there’s an immense amount of athleticism required now, too.

The best goaltenders in the game know how to take care of their bodies, and they’re all in good enough shape to handle the rigors of the modern game. But the human body can only withstand so much without getting ample recovery time, and goaltenders don’t play games in shifts; with at least 60 minutes of action each night and both practice and travel to account for, the NHL season doesn’t leave much left in the tank.

The Jonathan Quicks and Braden Holtbys of the NHL have proven that they can handle a massive regular season workload without losing their ability to drag their teams into the playoffs, but teams have finally started to figure out that 60- and 70-game seasons don’t leave their goaltenders in the kind of shape to steal games when the postseason rolls around. Goaltenders who have played heavy workloads behind defensively inconsistent teams have struggled to make it out of the first round in the last handful of years — fans need to look no farther than Frederik Andersen and Andrei Vasilevskiy for proof of that — and even those that do make it out have struggled more and more as the playoffs go on.

That realization has brought about a major shift in goaltender deployment. Where teams used to have a clear starter and a passable (but oftentimes unremarkable) backup, more and more have embraced the idea of having a pair of number one caliber goaltenders instead of a number one and a number two. The ‘starting goalie controversy’ of years past has died — and for fantasy owners, that’s a shift that could have massive ramifications on how teams are assembled.

Last season produced an almost unheard-of Vezina finalist trio. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the ultimate winner, shoulder the clear bulk of his team’s workload in net during the year — but the other two finalist, Dallas’ Ben Bishop and New York’s Robin Lehner, each played as one half of a clearly embraced tandem. They weren’t alone, either; the Boston Bruins used a strongly reliable Jaroslav Halak to split up starter Tuukka Rask’s workload, rendering him rested enough for an incredibly strong run to the Cup Final.

New Jersey Devils goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood (29) Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

The league should see even more teams embrace the tandem mentality this year, and not just because they boast a pair of unknowns or underperformers. The Arizona Coyotes have gone on record saying they hope to be able to balance Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper to keep both well-rested, while the Chicago Blackhawks are likely prepared to split starts for Corey Crawford and the aforementioned Lehner while the Islanders add Semyon Varlamov to their tandem, instead. Even if Jonathan Quick bounces back, the Kings will likely meter his starts alongside resurgent star Jack Campbell, and a similar bounce-back for Cory Schneider would still almost certainly result in nothing more than a split net in New Jersey between him and MacKenzie Blackwood.

For fantasy owners, this means a larger chance that drafting a good goaltender means he’ll get starts — and in theory, a smaller chance that he’ll get injured from overuse. There’s a larger pool of quality goaltenders to choose from now, meaning that there’s a higher likelihood of good performances coming for at least one goaltender owned on any given night.

The downside, of course, is that it also means that there will be fewer goaltenders available to draft that will be capable of logging points purely from a game volume perspective. Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Frederik Andersen are all likely to shoulder massive workloads again this year, and the uncertainty in Colorado and Columbus surrounding a pair of largely unproven goaltenders in Pavel Francouz and Elvis Merzlikins — combined on both teams with a lack of help available in the minors — means that both of those teams could end up seeing a starter-dominant deployment next year as well.

For most teams, though, there should be more wealth to choose from when picking up goaltenders for fantasy teams. And for those scouring the prospect market for their keeper leagues, young goaltenders will no longer be quite as much of a risk. More teams are willing to give up-and-comers ample workloads alongside their already-proven stars, meaning that young AHL goaltenders with good numbers could be good sleeper picks just a year or two down the line. Prospects like Cal Petersen, Michael DiPietro, Joseph Woll, and even Alex Nedeljkovic will likely see their NHL call-ups sooner rather than later and could get plenty of action when they do get those nods.

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-stars

Scott Cullen — Thu, 05 Sep 2019 22:35:11 +0000

Finding value in fantasy hockey can be the difference between winning and losing. While it’s always exciting to select the biggest stars in the early rounds finding value in middle to later rounds can make a real difference.

You could have a hunch about which players that you think will be better than expected, and that’s fine – fantasy hockey is for fun, after all – but there are some relatively established guidelines for finding players whose production may exceed their perceived value.

It’s useful to understand perception because that indicates how early a player may get drafted or how much it will cost to acquire them in an auction. Perception is a significant factor in whether a player’s production can provide relative value and perception is often driven by goal and assist totals from the previous season.

But by looking beyond raw goals and assists, it’s evident that player value can be predicated on fluctuating percentages. A player who sees his own shooting percentage, or even the shooting percentage of others when he’s on the ice, dry up for one season is a prime candidate for a bounce-back performance. That presents an opportunity to secure potential value.

Another avenue that can provide value is to find players who excel in the less glamorous categories: hits, blocked shots, even shots on goal. Obviously, getting goals and assists is important but, in roto leagues, all categories count the same, so there is some appeal – albeit maybe a little less obvious – when it comes to players contributing in the “peripheral” categories.

The objective, then, for fantasy owners is to find some players that will be more productive than they have been previously or those that are looking to recover from a down season. There are risks involved but that’s where the value lies. Hit on a couple of the right players and your fantasy squad will start moving in the right direction.

Here is an all-star team of potential value players, those that could surprise and possibly exceed their fantasy draft slot this season.

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing Ondrej Kase (25) (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville – The 25-year-old winger has scored enough highlight-reel goals that he’s not flying under the radar but he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 50 points, his fewest in a full season, and he’s missed 33 games over the past two seasons. A healthy Forsberg is a difference maker. Over the past four seasons, he ranks 19^th in goals per game (0.40) and 29^th in shots on goal per game (2.97). If the Predators can improve what was the league’s worst power play last season, Forsberg’s numbers should rise.

William Nylander, RW, Toronto – Quite possibly the most obvious candidate for a bounce-back season. The 23-year-old managed just seven goals in 54 games after a protracted contract negotiation caused him to miss the first two months of the 2018-2019 season. However, Nylander generated a career-best 9.6 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and finished with a career-low 5.4% shooting percentage so his underlying numbers were strong and undermined by that terrible shooting percentage. Presuming that the Maple Leafs get Nylander back to his more customary spot on Auston Matthews’ wing, the scoring chances will be there and Nylander’s production will get back on track.

Mika Zibanejad, C, N.Y. Rangers – It’s hard to get a bargain on a player who scored a career-high 74 points last season, and this is usually the type of player for which I might warn against paying full retail prices but Zibanejad could get another boost from playing with prized free agent addition Artemi Panarin. Throughout his career, Panarin’s lines have typically generated a lot of shots and, usually, finish at an above-average rate, which keeps the door open for another productive scoring season for Zibanejad.

J.T. Miller, LW, Vancouver – Playing in Tampa Bay last season, Miller scored 13 goals and averaged fewer than 15 minutes of ice time per game, his lowest marks since 2014-2015. Joining Vancouver, where the Canucks have fewer quality options up front, Miller is much more likely to hold a prominent role in the Canucks’ offense all season and he is a three-time 20-goal scorer who had a career-high 58 points in 2017-2018.

Jordan Eberle, RW, N.Y. Islanders – After years of consistent production, Eberle had his worst season in 2018-2019, his 37 points tying his previous career low which was set during the 2012-2013 lockout season when he played just 48 games. That lack of production was backed up by a career-low 2.05 shots on goal per game but Eberle responded in the postseason, with nine points in eight games and, importantly, generating more than three shots on goal per game. If Eberle makes his home on Mathew Barzal’s wing, it is reasonable to believe that he can bounce back closer to his previously established level of scoring performance.

Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis – Somehow Schwartz managed just 11 goals and 36 points during the 2018-2019 regular season despite averaging a career-high 2.65 shots on goal per game. He recovered in the playoffs, scoring 12 goals in 26 games on the way to the Blues’ first Stanley Cup. With strong underlying numbers, it will come as little surprise if Schwartz’s regular season production far exceeds what he provided last season.

Ondrej Kase, RW, Anaheim – A prime breakout candidate for the past couple of years, the 23-year-old winger looked to be on his way last season. After starting the season on the shelf with a concussion, Kase had scored 11 goals in 30 games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher was the only player in the league to generate shots and shot attempts at a higher rate per minute than Kase, so if the Ducks winger is healthy enough to handle a prominent role for a full season, he might finally get that breakthrough campaign.

Alex Galchenyuk, RW, Pittsburgh – Forever looking to fulfill his potential, the 25-year-old gets another chance with his third NHL franchise. Last season’s 41 points was Galchenyuk’s lowest point total since 2013-2014 but he moves to a Penguins lineup that could give him a chance to skate with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin at evens and, potentially, with both on the power play. Galchenyuk has produced 45 points on the power play in the past two seasons with Arizona and Montreal, and neither of those teams has a power play that can compare with what the Penguins have been rolling out in recent seasons.

Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina – While a rookie season of 20 goals and 37 points was a nice debut for the 19-year-old winger, he’s just getting started. Svechnikov can generate shots but notably created high-quality chances. Among forwards to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes last season, none had a higher rate of expected goals for per 60 than Svechnikov’s 3.34. The Hurricanes are a solid team but could use more high-end scorers to lead the attack and Svechnikov will eventually be one of those players, but maybe he makes that leap as soon as this season.

Tyler Toffoli, RW, Los Angeles – A three-time 20-goal scorer who has played all 82 games in three of the past four seasons, Toffoli’s 34 points in 82 games last season was the worst per-game production of his career. He scored on just 5.8% of his shots, well below his mark of 11.1% in his previous 375 games, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.4% was also a career-low. If Toffoli continues to generate shots and his percentages recover to a more typical level, then his goal and point totals would get a boost.

Roope Hintz, LW, Dallas – Even though he finished with a modest 22 points in 58 games as a rookie, the 22-year-old Stars forward finished strong with 11 points in the last 14 regular-season games before adding eight points in 13 playoff contests. He has the combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), speed, and skill to generate chances and his late-season surge gives him a regular spot in the lineup to provide the Stars with much-needed secondary offense.

Kevin Fiala, RW, Minnesota – The 23-year-old winger struggled after he was acquired from Nashville, managing seven points in 19 games with the Wild, but his on-ice shooting percentage was an absurdly low 3.0%. Fiala will have an opportunity to play a significant role in Minnesota and has such strong underlying numbers in terms of creating chances that it’s not a stretch to expect him to be better this season and he should be priced at a discount.

Nick Ritchie, LW, Anaheim – A 23-year-old power forward who tallied a career-high 31 points in 60 games last season, Ritchie offers additional value because he’s a banger. Even with a dip in hits last season, Ritchie has still averaged at least two hits per game for three straight seasons so if he scores enough to warrant consideration, his hit totals will offer additional value.

Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) (Photo by John Crouch/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo – The first pick in the 2018 Draft isn’t going to sneak by too many but his rookie season was phenomenal – his 44 points was the most by an 18-year-old rookie defenseman since Phil Housley in 1982-1983, and Dahlin’s 2.16 shots on goal per game was only surpassed by Housley and Bobby Orr. This is just the beginning for this puck-moving dynamo and Dahlin is one of the few defensemen with the potential to have an impact as a scorer.

Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg – With the turnover on the Jets’ blueline, opportunity knocks for Morrissey, their top-pair defender who scored a career-high 31 points last season despite playing in just 59 games. Morrissey will have a big role in Winnipeg, and he can fill the stat sheet in multiple categories including hits and blocked shots.

Kevin Shattenkirk, Tampa Bay – Few players are seeking redemption like Shattenkirk, who was bought out of his four-year contract with the New York Rangers after just two seasons. While he’s not the sturdiest defender, the 30-year-old blueliner is consistently productive on the power play and his ability to move the puck ought to play well with a skilled Lightning squad.

Devon Toews, N.Y. Islanders – A 25-year-old who produced 17 points in his first 48 NHL games last season, Toews had four points on the power play during the regular season then matched that total in eight playoff games. He’s a quality puck-mover who should be ready for a bigger role on the Islanders blueline because the Islanders were much better once Toews was inserted into the lineup.

Filip Hronek, Detroit – When veteran Red Wings defenseman Mike Green was injured last season, the door opened wider for Hronek, a 21-year-old right-shot defenseman who had 19 points while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his last 30 games. Green’s presence could pose an initial challenge for Hronek when it comes to power play time but, long-term, Hronek should be a fixture on the Detroit power play.

Jakob Chychrun, Arizona – The key for Chychrun is staying healthy. The 21-year-old has played three NHL seasons and has yet to record a 70-game season. But he produced 20 points in 53 games last season despite a career-low 5.3% on-ice shooting percentage. He could break out merely by having that on-ice shooting percentage come back to a more reasonable level while staying healthy enough to play 75 games.

Arizona Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta (32) (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire)

GOALTENDERS

Martin Jones, San Jose – After a miserable 2018-2019 regular season, during which he had a career-low .896 save percentage, Jones is likely to be a relative bargain to acquire for the 2019-2020 fantasy season, and it’s worthwhile to take that plunge. He had a .915 save percentage over his previous three seasons and is the undisputed starter on a team that should at least be a playoff team and possibly a contender. That role matters because as poorly as Jones performed last season, he still won 36 games, his fourth straight season with at least 30 wins.

Antti Raanta, Arizona – Limited to just a dozen games last season, Raanta had a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the previous four seasons and had established that he was a legit starter for the Coyotes in 2017-2018. If he’s healthy, Raanta should be the No. 1 option for an improved Coyotes team and, because of last season’s injury, could be a draft day bargain.

Under the Radar Fantasy All-Star Team

Scott Cullen — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 19:29:20 +0000

The name of the game, when it comes to fantasy hockey, is to derive the best possible value from your draft picks.

Value can come in many forms. Maybe it’s just getting the expected performance out of a blue-chip player, and at the end of the year you can say thank you to Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby for being great. It can also be about getting a player with no expectations that turns out to be productive enough to contribute to your squad’s fantasy success.

As billionaire investor Warren Buffett said, “The price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

That means that every round, when you make your pick, that is the price you pay for that given player. The way to extract relative value on draft day, though, is to get players that will perform better than their draft slot.

There are a number of reasons why a player might be a good candidate to provide favourable value, maybe the most notable of which is that they are coming off a season of poor percentages, either related to their own shooting percentage or their 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (which measures the finishing ability of their linemates). If either of those percentages were well off a skater’s career norms, then there is a pretty good chance that those numbers will bounce back, leading to better goal and point production in the following season.

Another factor to consider when it comes to value is perception. If a player has a high profile and receives lots of publicity, it’s going to be more difficult to sneak that pick past anyone. To that end, once players start showing up on every value picks list, they may already start to lose some of their potential value because they are no longer sitting quite so far under the radar.

Nevertheless, here are some players to consider as value plays on draft day, including some high-end players who might be even better their reputations and working down to some late-round sleeper candidates.

FORWARDS

Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand, Boston – This isn’t to suggest that you won’t have to invest a high pick in the Boston super-pest, but he will be worth it. Over the past three seasons, Marchand has scored 110 goals, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Over the past two seasons, thanks to an increased role on the Boston power play, Marchand has 170 points, which is tied for fourth in the league. He’s a vital cog on the league’s best line, with Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, so don’t be afraid of paying retail prices for Marchand’s production.

Tyler Seguin, Dallas – Over the past five seasons he’s tied for sixth in the league in points (384) and only Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals than Seguin’s 173. He scored a career-high 40 goals last season while playing a career-high 20:55 per game, and while a new coach may not give him all of that ice time (though he might), it’s also entirely possible that Jim Montgomery will have the Stars playing a more up-tempo pace than they did under Ken Hitchcock.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis – By no means is it guaranteed that O’Reilly will find himself centering super sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, but it would seem to be a good fit since O’Reilly is both a defensive stalwart, a strong playmaker, and he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 61 points, the second highest total of his career, even though he had a career-low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0%. Playing with an elite talent like Tarasenko could bring out his best.

Sam Reinhart, Buffalo – Even though second overall pick in the 2014 Draft finished with a career-high 50 points last season, Reinhart started the year with just 11 points in his first 38 games and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% for the whole season. If he carries his second half production into a full year, with an improved Sabres team, the 22-year-old’s numbers should keep climbing.

Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – After Christmas, the 21-year-old winger scored 20 goals and 37 points in 45 games, performing at high level down the stretch while skating with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier on Philadelphia’s top line. He also finished second on the team with 2.26 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, scoring 44 of his 47 points at even strength.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota – A power forward possession beast who managed 32 points in an injury-plagued 2017-2018 season, Niederreiter had a career-high 57 points in 2016-2017. Coming off that down season, he should cost less to acquire, but that leads to a potential value gain if he gets back on track.

Alex Galchenyuk

Alex Galchenyuk, Arizona – A fresh start with a team that might offer more opportunity is a good reason to have higher hopes for Galchenyuk, because there is an argument to be made that he was not handled particularly well in Montreal, but it’s also worth noting that any scoring forward who had a 5.1% on-ice shooting percentage last season is likely to see more favourable percentages in the next season.

Jonathan Drouin, Montreal – His first season with the Canadiens didn’t necessarily go as planned, and it’s fair to wonder whether Drouin is going to make it long-term as a centre, but the percentages weren’t on his side either, as he scored on 7.9% of his shots and had a 5.6% on-ice shooting percentage. The third pick in the 2013 Draft had a good finish last season, scoring 13 points in his last 14 games and, given his prominent role on the team, Drouin will have every opportunity to produce offensively.

Pavel Buchnevich, N.Y. Rangers – A new coaching staff and a team committed to rebuilding could present more consistent top-six opportunities for the talented 23-year-old winger, who had a respectable 43 points last season, but managed just one goal in his last 22 games and that could help make him somewhat easier to acquire on draft day.

Ondrej Kase, Anaheim – The 22-year-old winger flashed some potential in 2016-2017 and tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 66 games last season, when he led Ducks regulars in goals, points and primary points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. He has spent quite a bit of time alongside Ryan Getzlaf on the top line, and that makes life easier for any scoring winger.

Alex Tuch, Vegas – James Neal’s departure has opened up a second-line spot for Tuch, who showed a lot of potential as a rookie, and that second-line opening comes with the benefit of a chance to skate alongside veteran playmaking centre Paul Stastny. That’s a good set up for Tuch, who offers a rare combination of size and speed, to build on last season’s production.

Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg – With Paul Stastny leaving, there is a great opportunity for the second-year centre to step into a role on a scoring line. If it turns out that Roslovic is a plug-and-play replacement for Stastny between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, well, that’s the dream scenario that makes it worth grabbing Roslovic and hoping that he is ready to handle that responsibility.

Andre Burakovsky, Washington – Four years into his NHL career, we’re still waiting on a breakout season, but the 23-year-old’s goal and points per 60 numbers are among the best on the Capitals. It’s worth grabbing him late if only to find out what might happen if he plays at least 65 games, something that he’s done once in four years.

Austin Czarnik, Calgary – A 25-year-old who has 17 points in 59 career NHL games is likely to be available for a late-round flier, and Czarnik is worth consideration at that price because he has tallied 155 points in 157 American Hockey League games and joins a Flames team that offers an opportunity to play significant minutes. After Yanni Gourde’s success in Tampa Bay last season, Czarnik is a player with a similar pedigree as a minor-league scorer, looking for his chance to shine in the NHL.

DEFENCE

Brent Burns

Brent Burns, San Jose – You won’t get him cheaply, but the 33-year-old freewheeling blueliner still offers massive value at a relatively early draft slot. Even though he managed 12 goals last season, Burns scored on just 3.6% of his shots, his lowest rate since 2009-2010, and his on-ice shooting percentage (6.2%) was his lowest in the advanced stats era (ie. since 2007-2008). Over the past three seasons, Burns leads all defencemen in goals (68), points (218) and, by a mile, shots on goal (1005).

Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton – He plummeted from a dozen goals and 38 points in 2016-2017 to just five goals and 21 points last season, but Klefbom was limited by a bad shoulder that ultimately ended his season early. A healthy Klefbom remains the best power-play quarterback on the Edmonton blueline and, provided that he’s not hindered by the shoulder issue, Klefbom should be in line for a rebound season.

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa – The 2015 first-round pick was kept under wraps early in his rookie season, but started to play a lot more in the second half of the season and he performed well. As it was, he still finished with 25 points in 63 games, so those numbers could shoot up if he starts playing 20-minutes plus every night for a full season.

Duncan Keith

Duncan Keith, Chicago – To be fair, no one is going to consider Keith a genuine sleeper. Everyone is well aware of a 34-year-old who has won two Norris Trophies and been a No. 1 defenceman on three Stanley Cup winners, but he’s coming off an especially poor year. Part of how those poor results were achieved, though, was through abysmal percentages. He scored two goals on 187 shots (1.1 SH%) and his 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (5.7%) was a career-low, too. If absolutely nothing else changes and the percentages move back towards his career norms, Keith’s results will be noticeably better.

Kevin Shattenkirk, N.Y. Rangers – A prize free agent signing in the summer of 2017, the veteran blueliner missed nearly half of the season due to injury, but remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the game. Even on a rebuilding Rangers team there will be points to be had with the man advantage.

Samuel Girard, Colorado – The heady, smallish, puck-moving blueliner scored more than half of his points on the power play during his rookie campaign, earning a bigger role as the season progressed, and the 20-year-old should continue his upward career trajectory in his second season.

GOALTENDERS

Braden Holtby, Washington – Last season was clearly the worst of Holtby’s career, and he even lost the starting job going down the stretch and into the playoffs, so of course that was the season in which he backstopped the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. Given his impressive track record, though, it’s still worth investing in Holtby as a star goaltender. With Philipp Grubauer moving on, Holtby’s hold on the No. 1 job should be even more secure.

Antti Raanta

Antti Raanta, Arizona – He doesn’t have the reputation of other starting goaltenders, in part because last season was the first time that he played more than 40 games in a season, and injuries still limited him to 47 appearances. Raanta is also playing behind a Coyotes team that wants to be more competitive, but they haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 and have surpassed 80 points once since then. Even with those factors taken into account, Raanta was outstanding when healthy last year and has a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the past four seasons. The 29-year-old does not have the track record to be considered an elite netminder, but once they’re off the board, Raanta could bring nice value.

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo – The 25-year-old netminder is coming off a strong AHL campaign, during which he posted a .922 save percentage in 44 games, and while veteran Carter Hutton appears to have a leg up in the Sabres’ goaltending competition, Ullmark has potential to emerge as Buffalo’s number one option between the pipes.