Bobby Ryan – McKeen's Hockey

Sens-Less – Ottawa Senators 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:50:53 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Ottawa Senators are perhaps a team that could be best described with a long sigh. The worst part is that it wasn’t so long-ago things looked alright for the Senators. They were a single win away from the Stanley Cup Final in 2017 and while you could easily argue that they over performed, at least they went into 2017-18 looking like a franchise that was trending in the right direction.

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Senators last season, did go wrong, including some things that you would have never even considered. The team finished with a 28-43-11 record and instead of being on the brink of contending, are now in a position where they need to rebuild. To make matters worse, just before the Senators’ collapse, they traded an unprotected first round pick for Matt Duchene, so no matter how badly they do in 2018-19, the Colorado Avalanche will control the Senators’ 2019 first round draft pick.

AND IT GETS WORSE – The Ottawa Senators began their rebuild before the 2017-18 campaign ended by trading Derick Brassard to the Pittsburgh Penguins as part of a three-way trade to get, among other things, Pittsburgh’s 2018 first-round pick. Brassard’s contract extends through 2018-19, so trading him away was about more than just Ottawa’s position last season.

After the campaign, the Ottawa Senators dealt away another top-six forward in Mike Hoffman. The reasons for trading Hoffman was due to off-ice matters that are probably best not discussed here, but the consequence of Ottawa being in a position where it had to trade Hoffman was that the Senators got far less than normal market value for him.

Although at the time of writing there hasn’t been another trade by the Senators since they dealt Hoffman, that might not be the end of it. Goaltender Craig Anderson reportedly requested a trade, though he said in late August that he’s fine staying in Ottawa so long as there isn’t any drama. Of more pressing importance is the matter of Erik Karlsson, who can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019. If the Senators aren’t confident in their ability to re-sign him, then it’s important that he be dealt before the trade deadline to avoid suffering a fate similar to the New York Islanders’ with John Tavares.

Speaking of pending UFAs, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene also fall into that category. So, the Senators’ front office has a lot of work ahead of them.

IS THERE A SILVER LINING? – There’s not much of one in the near-term, but no franchise is without hope and that is true of the Ottawa Senators as well. First off, you could work out a scenario where the Senators end up exceeding their low expectations this season with Karlsson and Duchene leading the charge, Marian Gaborik staying healthy, and one of Anderson or Mike Condon bouncing back to provide the team with solid goaltending. However, rather than trying to envision an unlikely, albeit not impossible, set of circumstances where the Senators might have a passable season, it’s probably better to think about their future.

Not having control of their first-round pick in 2019 is embarrassing for the Senators given their circumstances. The upside though is that they do have some promising prospects already in their franchise with two of the most notable ones being Logan Brown and Brady Tkachuk. Both might end up as members of the 2018-19 squad and provide a silver lining in what might be an otherwise difficult season.

The Senators also could potentially turn Karlsson and Duchene into significant prospects/picks through trades that would meaningfully push forward their rebuilding efforts. A trade involving Stone would certainly serve that purpose as well, but the ideal would be to re-sign him to serve as a leader for the next generation given that he’s still just 26-years-old.

Ottawa also only has three players under one-way contracts beyond 2019-20 in Bobby Ryan, Gaborik, and Zack Smith. While in one respect that’s part of the problem, that also gives the Senators a lot of flexibility with how they shape their team going forward and opens the door to Ottawa potentially engaging in trades that involve them taking on some cap burden in exchange for more picks/prospects.

OUTLOOK – This is likely going to be a difficult season for Ottawa on the ice, but an interesting one on the trade front. The moves that are made in the next few months could define the Senators for years to come and for that reason, the Senators are a franchise to keep an eye on even if not much is expected of them right now.

A ‘Close’ Analysis of Jason Spezza

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 16 May 2014 18:35:53 +0000

I started looking at the Ottawa Senators for the McKeen’s Hockey Yearbook recently setting up my database to filter specifically for Senators criteria. The game watching and scouting notes are one component but it isn’t a focus for the purpose of this writing.

I do this with every team before getting into the meat of the player analysis giving me a proper representation of high-level team performance before micro-analyzing player contributions.

While going through some high level charts, I noticed a fairly interesting pattern for the soon to be departed, Jason Spezza (if one’s to believe the chatter surrounding the Sens captain). In particular, the effect from the 2001 1st round selection (2nd overall) in close games especially in comparison to the second line of Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur and Bobby Ryan.

Spezza spent most of his 5v5 playing time alongside Milan Michalek (680 minutes) with a revolving third to round out the line. Of the 627 minutes Spezza spent in games close (comprising about 62% of his 5v5 time and 25% of the Sens total games close ice time) 350 minutes were with Michalek on his flank. Games close is comprised of the score within 1 goal in the first two periods or tied in the 3rd.

This table below shows the breakdown of time on ice at 5v5 and in games close. The last two columns are the percentage of total team time spent in 5v5 and in games close. Spezza spent approximately 26% of his 5v5 time in games close. The Tied/Lead/Trail % is the percentage of time on the ice in those game situations.

Player	5v5	5v5 Close	close %	Tied%	Lead%	Trail%	% of Tm 5v5 Ice time	% of Tm 5v5 Close
JASON SPEZZA	1002:12	627:51	62.65	36.81	28.35	34.84	26.38	25.98
MILAN MICHALEK	1048:49	667:14	63.62	38.81	28.44	32.75	27.61	27.61
KYLE TURRIS	1112:18	704:08	63.3	39.44	29.02	31.54	29.28	29.14
CLARKE MACARTHUR	1004:09	643:18	64.06	40.12	29.73	30.15	26.43	26.62
BOBBY RYAN	937:22	562:40	60.03	35.73	28	36.26	24.67	23.28

Let’s go into the charts, starting with the Senators charts overall.

The charts are visual representations of the Senators 5v5 10-game rolling moving average Corsi For% and PDO (with accompanying games close numbers). In addition, (with more comprehensive data) is the elemental breakdown of the team’s PDO into its base components, on-ice save- and shooting percentage for a micro investigation of each component’s overall effect. By a degree of extension, I added shot differential. Once again, this is at 5v5 and in games close.

The graph on the left is the CF% and PDO breakdown and the graph on the right is the PDO core components. Pay attention to the ‘close’ lines and notice the overlap within the time period of mid-November through to the trade deadline (click to enlarge the images).

The second graph (right) represents PDO in its core components; on-ice save percentage and shooting % and I’ve added 5v5 shot differential.

The theory here is the games 'close' line should be above the overall lines. A higher close line represents the score effects that drag down the leading team’s overall Corsi. Strong performance when games are close likely results in leads and teams then have a tendency to play prevent, allowing the opposition to rack up shot attempts against and in turn increasing their Corsi through score effects, while reducing the leading team's Corsi. Conversely, a team that's get's behind will have a lower CF% close and then the opposite description, racking up shot attempts and increasing the Corsi rate (and line).

I've included the individual charts for Spezza, Michalek, Turris, MacArthur and Ryan.

Look at Spezza’s CF% close line how it hovers above the CF% overall percentage after mid-November. That piqued my interest with the interpretation that he was effective with games close. Splitting his on-ice stats is even more telling and the addition of Hemsky after the trade deadline was killer. Spezza’s Corsi jumped to 56.9% alongside Hemsky.

I've included Michalek his most consistent linemate, where the images tend to mirror each other.

Now, lets contrast that to the Turris, MacArthur & Ryan line with attention to the 'close' line.

First Turris.

Then Bobby Ryan who had season-ending sports hernia surgery towards the end of March.

Last is former Sabres, Thrashers and Leafs winger, Clarke MacArthur.

The common theme for all of them is the CF% overall line hovering above the CF% close – less so for MacArthur than for the other two linemates. That line was the driving force early in the season, but seemed to sputter after mid-November until after the trade deadline.

There were three distinct periods to the season that we could break into for a deeper look at the player’s impact. Jason Spezza missed four games at the end of the calendar year and it coincided with the Sens Corsi leveling after a period of ascension and slight correction. I split the season into these three markers:

Nov 17 – Jan 2, 2014

Jan 4, 2014 – Mar 2, 2014 (trade deadline)

Mar 4 – end of the regular season

Isolating the season into those three components, I took the average CF% and CF%close, along with PDO (close) and the core components. I included total goals for and against (overall and close) with a summary of the Spezza/Michalek pairing (along with Hemsky in the third period after his acquisition from Edmonton) and the Turris, Ryan, MacArthur line.

Period 1

During this period, Spezza/Michalek averaged a 56% Corsi close, with the Turris line hovering at about 46.8%, a sizeable difference. Goaltending via on-ice save percentage and a low on-ice shooting percentage played a big part here for the pairing as the Turris line shot at a better rate, while receiving average goaltending in games close, with above average overall at 5v5.

It’s more of the same in the next period and confirming the CF% line in the charts above for the Spezza/Michalek pairing. I chose the trade deadline, not only because of the convenience, but this was also the final period before the addition of Ales Hemsky, acquired from Edmonton, that had a distinct impact flanking Spezza.

Period 2

There’s still a considerable gap between the pairing and the Turris line. A 6% difference is fairly substantial, while goaltending buoyed the Turris line, they scored almost two-thirds of their total offense after the game changed from close to blowouts. The Spezza/Michalek pairing averaged on-ice save percentage of .894 close and .874 overall, yet scored 14 of their 19 goals in games close situations – with 50% of their goals against during ‘close’ game situations as well – relative to the Turris line having almost one-third of their goals-against during games close.

Period 3

The final period is directly after the trade deadline, with the distinction of the addition of Hemsky.

Hemsky’s impact was special from those that watched him in Senators silks, but these numbers show just how significant he was, leading the way with a 59.3% Corsi close. The Turris line (sans Bobby Ryan towards the end) blew up soon after the deadline, with a 54.1% Corsi close, still not eclipsed by the Spezza line at 58.4% overall. They also enjoyed the most productive period in terms of shooting percentage overall, with the close average hovering around the 8% mark.

courtesy www.montrealgazette.com

Kyle Turris had his breakout year, clearly becoming an important component up the middle for the Sens, flanked by two players that bring a distinct skill set, Ryan as a shooter and MacArthur as a support player. The former played injured for the majority of the season – that may have affected his overall numbers after a killer start – while MacArthur blended into the scenery for periods at a time.

The most consistent element for the Senators forward was Jason Spezza who along with Milan Michalek contributed the most during the most important periods of the game. Losing Spezza, as the rumors would indicate of a potential trade out of Ottawa is going to be a substantial blow to the offense. Losing both Spezza and Michalek even more detrimental.

Then there’s Hemsky.

Even if Mika Zibenajad is capable of filling the void, I’d be somewhat weary of the immediate impact and whether the Sens could create offense if teams key in to the Turris line and effectively shut them down.

According to this micro-study, Spezza isn’t replaceable with anyone on the current roster, within the system, and they won’t recoup the loss through any potential trade.

In short, should the Senators trade Jason Spezza and let Michalek walk as a UFA, without improvements in goaltending or blueline upgrades in 2014-15, Spezza’s replacement could very well potentially become Connor McDavid.

Data sources:

timeonice.com

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Extraskater.com

**********

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:

@mckeenshockey
@KatsHockey

NHL Fantasy Playoffs

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 25 Mar 2014 13:36:41 +0000

Those of you still contending for your league championship are left to make crucial roster decisions every week. Starting or benching a player could be the determining factor between winning or losing in the playoffs.

You all know who your studs are, but now that most fantasy rosters are set for the championship drive, let’s look at those bubble players; the ones you should ride as weekly starters and those who should be shelved for the rest of the year.

RIDE ‘EM

Valteri Filppula (C) – TBL: As good a first half as everyone thought he had, Filppula is authoring an even better second. Currently riding an 8-game point streak (4-8-12, +4), the Finn pivot also benefits from manning the point on Tampa’s first PP unit which also features red hot Steven Stamkos. Classic case of a late-bloomer, with a career-best season at the age of 30.

Ondrej Palat (LW) – TBL: The 22 y/o Czech rookie has always found a way to produce offense at every level. His line, center by Filppula and completed by Ryan Callahan on RW, is one of the hottest in the NHL. Consequently, Palat has been promoted to the PP’s top unit, where he benefits from the new-found chemistry with his regular linemates. His numbers are no fluke; very smart playmaker.

Gustav Nyquist (RW-LW) – DET: Simply one of the best goal scorers in the league at the moment: 12G, 9A for 21 pts (+9) in 17 GP since Feb. 2^nd. What’s even more impressive is that Nyquist is doing this without that much help from his regular linemates (Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar aren’t exactly tearing it up). This should be enough to convince his owners to pencil him in from here on out.

Steve Mason (G) – PHI: The Flyers have definitely figured it out since Craig Berube took over behind the bench. First they took care of their horrible defensive warts, than they worked through the offensive issues that haunted them in the first half. Now they’re firing on all cylinders and Steve Mason’s owners are reaping the benefits: 11-3-1 record since Feb 1^st, with a .923 SP and 2 SO. As safe a bet as there is in the crease outside of Tukka Rask at the moment.

Wayne Simmonds (RW) – PHI: A point-a-game producer since Feb 1^st (15-7-9-16), Simmonds is establishing himself as one of the best young power forwards in the NHL. His line isn’t quite lighting it up (centered by Braden Schenn, with Vincent Lecavalier on LW), but Simmonds has scored 13 of his 24 goals on a red hot first PP unit keyed by center Claude Giroux’s all-world playmaking abilities.

T.J. Brodie (D) – CAL: Has taken full advantage of Dennis Wideman’s injury, producing at a career-best pace (6-0-6-6, +10). Although you shouldn’t expect a point-a-game pace, Brodie is a solid option as a no.5 or 6 D in most fantasy leagues for the rest of the year.

BENCH ‘EM

Mike Ribeiro (C) – PHO: After a stellar season in Washington, Ribeiro is in the midst of one of the worst slumps in his career. The playmaking wiz strives on ice-time and creativity. However his blatant lack of discipline and lackadaisical play lately has earned him a benching following a misconduct on Feb 28^th. Since then things have yet to improve (12-1-3-4, -5). He has been demoted to third or fourth line duty and to the second PP unit. Monitor his play and icetime. Both must sharply pick up before you can start him again.

Jay Bouwmeester (D) – STL: After a hot offensive first half, Bouwmeester has come back down to earth since his return from the Olympics: 13-0-2-2, with both points coming in the same game. I never viewed Bouwmeester as a reliable source of offense from the back end. Don’t expect anything more than his career average of 0.41 PPG the rest of the way. If you have a better option, he should be benched; if not, good luck!

Brent Seabrook (D) – CHI: Yes he still is Duncan Keith’s partner, but he is far from his equal. Seabrook has only one assist in his last 8 games and mans the point on a second PP unit of the Hawks that has been very cold. Chicago has been extremely top-heavy in its offensive production lately, which hurts Seabrook’s likelihood of producing points.

Dan Boyle (D) – SJS: It seems time has finally caught up to this once elite offensive defenseman. He has suffered through long point droughts this season, including one of ten straight games between Jan 20^th and Feb 7^th. Currently mired in a 5-gamer, Boyle can simply no longer be considered an automatic starter.

Bobby Ryan (RW) – OTT: The Sens’ first half success was keyed by a hot second line, centered by emerging center Kyle Turris. Not so coincidentally, their second half debacle can be partly explained by the complete collapse of that same line. Bobby Ryan is on that line and there is no relief in sight: 16-3-3-6 (-7) since Feb 1st. Now comes word that he has suffered an upper-body injury.