brad richards – McKeen's Hockey

Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes

Robert Howard — Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:59:46 +0000

Paraphrasing Brian Burke, he once famously declared otherwise knowledgeable, experienced GM’s lose their minds at the trade deadline and free agency on July 1^st. Making their greatest mistakes at the trade deadline, followed closely by free agency. In fantasy hockey, the trade deadline is also fraught with ill-advised deals, and a heightened level of desperation in search of a championship, but there is an argument to be made that the first ten games of the fantasy hockey season produce some interesting trade opportunities. Surprising results from a small sample of games can lead to some itchy GM fingers in the ‘irrational exuberance” of the excitement of another season.

However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.

Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.

Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.

Brent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.

Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.

Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.

Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).

Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.

Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.

Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.

In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.

The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.

“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”

Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.

Colton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.

Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games.

Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.

Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.

He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.

Detroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.

Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.

The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.

The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed.

2015 NHL Playoffs: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:39:56 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

The Chicago Blackhawks should be the odds on favorite to win their third Cup in five years with the monumental news that Patrick Kane has medical clearance to play in the first game of round one. The Hawks have the pedigree and confidence to go all the way, but they have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and you have to worry if they have enough as in the tank to go all the way. The real wild card for the Hawks has to be Kane and if his shoulder will allow him to play at his best. Often when an All-Star player returns from injury there is a bit of an exhale from the rest of the team, if either is the case it may be enough to tip the scale towards Nashville as the Hawks will have their hands full in the first round. Chicago is far from a one trick pony with Patrick Kane as we all know. He is Robin to Jonathan Toews Batman and the dynamic duo has a super supporting cast upfront with Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards. The blue line is another strength anchored by the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pair with Kimmo Timonen, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Michal Rozsival forming arguably the best defence in the Western Conference if not the NHL. Corey Crawford has proven over and over that he is a legit starting goalie and provides confidence and stability in the crease as well. With the Hawks cap situation in the immediate future a cause for concern the players and management know that the window of opportunity is as wide as it can get with this roster and the Hawks should be hungry for that third Championship that would cement their legacy as a cap era dynasty.

The Nashville Predators are the first and possibly most formidable obstacle in Chicago’s path to a dynasty. The Preds were world beaters early on in the season led by their star goalie Pekka Rinne who was an early favorite for a Vezina Trophy. What the Preds lack in super-star forwards they make up for in goal and on defense. The team is led by Shea Weber who is one of the best defenseman in the world and is supported by Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Matias Ekholm Ryan Ellis, Cody Franson and Anton Volchenkov. They say you can never have enough D in the playoffs but the Preds depth on the blue line is very impressive. The offence is a score by committee group and will lean heavily on rookie sensation Filip Forsberg. While there is no elite scorer, there are plenty of legitimate offensive options in Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Craig Smith while players like Paul Gaustad, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson and Mike Santorelli provide excellent depth. It has been said that to win a Championship in the NHL you need an elite goalie and a stud defenseman or two. Well the Preds check both those boxes and their 2.77 goals per game offense is not too concerning to think they do not have a very good chance to usurp the Hawks as top contender in the West. This series should be hotly contested, very physical, very close and very entertaining!

Top Ten Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Potential rookie of the year breakout performance will be relied on to score some big goals
Mike Ribeiro – A reclamation project paying dividends, has never been a playoff performer but has he finally figured it all out?
Shea Weber – The most important skater both offensively and defensively will attempt to lead this team out of the first round for the first time
James Neal – Was the “real deal” in Pittsburgh, can he recapture that offense without Malkin and Crosby?
Mike Fisher – Solid two-way player brings consistency in regular season and post season.
Craig Smith – Streaky scorer has led the Preds in scoring, can he find consistency in the playoffs?
Roman Josi – Swiss defender had a 50 point season, has to prove he can be a factor in the playoffs
Colin Wilson – Former seventh overall pick scored a 20-20 season, but can he do it in the playoffs?
Ryan Ellis – Former standout for Canada at World Juniors will be counted on for Power play production.
Seth Jones – the 18 year old rookie had 27 points and was a plus-3. He will only get better.

Top Ten Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane – Getting Kane and his 0.98 career playoff PPG offense back for game one is huge.
Jonathan Toews – A proven winner who just keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Marian Hossa – The Hoss is one of the best two way forwards in the NHL and has incredible playoff experience.
Brandon Saad – Hossa lite is proving to be just as effective in the post season as he is in the regular season
Patrick Sharp – Showed signs during the season he may be slowing down, but is still a great fantasy option
Duncan Keith – Has Conn Smythe type impact for the Hawks
Brent Seabrook – plays in Keith’s shadow but is every bit as valuable and important to the Hawks
Antoine Vermette – Trade deadline acquisition dominates in faceoffs which will help with puck possession
Brad Richards – Playoff warrior was playoff MVP during Tampa Bays Cup win, still has enough game to be effective on the third line
Kimmo Timonen – 40 year old is looking for his first Cup, brings a win it for the Gipper mentality

TOEWS THAT BIND

McKeen's Hockey — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 23:03:29 +0000

Chicago is one of the NHLs elite franchises where anything short of a Stanley Cup is a disappointment. The Hawks enjoyed another great season finishing with 107 points in the highly competitive Central Division, but were not successful in defending their Championship. Loaded with star players and keeper fantasy players like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford expect the Hawks to remain an elite team for the immediate future.

The Hawks are a consistently-winning team with two Cups in the last five years but every off season the salary cap forces them into difficult roster decisions. Previous cap casualties include players such as Dustin Byfuglien, Dave Bolland, and Michael Frolik. This summer the Hawks resigned their two superstar players Toews and Kane to a staggering 10 year $84 million extension each. While those players are worth both the dollar and term it forces the Hawks to be over the cap and in the position to have to trade another player or two to become cap compliant.

It is unlikely the Hawks move a key player such as Keith Seabrook, Marian Hossa or Patrick Sharp as they are too valuable at the moment. Players such as Kris Versteeg, Johnny Oduya or Nick Leddy would be preferable solutions.

Despite constant off season purging of roster players, the Hawks manage to stay competitive because of their prospect pipeline which currently has players like Teuvo Teravainen, Ryan Hartman and Adam Clendening in the wings. The Hawks have also added College free agents Matt Carey and Trevor Van Riemsdyk to the fold.

With the core intact, expect the Hawks to contend for a third Championship and to again be a fantasy rich destination.

We have posted player profiles of the following Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Brad Richards, Andrew Shaw, Bryan Bickell, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Nick Leddy, Corey Crawford

Brad Richards and His New Place in Fantasy Hockey

Darren Kennedy — Sat, 07 Jun 2014 19:20:36 +0000

I feel for Brad Richards. On the one hand, yes, that nine year free agency contract was WAY too much for a 31 year-old who had little to no chance of replicating his early career numbers. On the other, the outcry over his deal and speculation around a buyout has clouded the fact that he’s been a pretty outstanding player for a long time.

Even today, at the age of 34, his name still carries a lot of weight in fantasy hockey. Many poolies continue reach for him in the early to mid-rounds, hoping that maybe, somehow, he’ll recapture that old magic. It’s rarely the case, and underlines a constant issue with players entering their mid-thirties. We’ll often say “well, he was elite ONLY two years ago, it’s not that long?” Unfortunately two years, when it comes between 32 and 34, can be an eternity.

With Richards’ Rangers in the finals this week it feels like the right time to look back at his fantasy career and contemplate what might lay ahead.

Tampa Bay – 2000 to 2008

His numbers here are reminiscent of Pavel Datsyuk earlier in his career. Consistently piling up points and shots while being an elite power play option. There was a four season stretch, starting in 2002-03, in which he never posted less than 70 points or 244 shots. It’s the kind of consistency that poolies crave.

Everything culminated in 2005-06 when he finished with 23 goals, 68 assists, and 282 shots. At this point, regardless of format, he was a top 10 option in your pool. Reaching those kind of heights at the age of 26 can cause poolies to get a wee bit excited for the future. This was almost a decade ago, when conventional wisdom told us that a player’s prime years were between 28 and 32 (research has recently debunked this to a degree, showing that 23 to 27 may in fact be the optimal years for point production). As a result, most of us expected Richards to have another five years of elite numbers ahead of him.

Playing with a forward group that also contained a young Vincent Lecavalier and a young(er) Martin St.Louis left little doubt as to how Richards would hold up over time. They were an offensive force.

Dallas Stars – 2008 to 2011

The trade to Dallas came as a bit of a surprise. Richards’ was sent away for a package that included Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, and Jussi Jokinen. From a fantasy perspective it was the first time we would get to see Richards as the focal point of a team’s offence. He didn’t disappoint.

His shot volume returned to an elite level (270 plus) and he managed back-to-back seasons with more than a point per game (91 in 2009-10 and 77 in 2010-11). It was around this time he was being mentioned as a possible first round selection. I’ve said many times that goals, assists, and shots are the three categories I focus on in the early rounds, and Richards had them in spades.

The issue with Dallas was that they were a budget team, barely reaching the cap floor at that time. Questions arose as to whether they could surround Richards with adequate talent. It was those same monetary constraints that prevented the Stars from retaining him in 2011 when his contract expired. It was on to Broadway.

New York Rangers – 2011 to Present

For those of you in cap/salary leagues Richards’ nine year, 60 million dollar contract made him almost impossible to own. In the hockey media, that deal heaped the kind of attention and pressure that a player entering his declining years was never going to live up to.

In fantasy circles there was an expectation that New York could surround Richards with better wingers, allowing him to once again approach a point per game and become an elite asset.

It never materialized.

Year one was good, but far from great, ending with 66 points and 229 shots in a healthy 82 games. Then the lockout hit and rumors were abound that Richards may not have been in peak physical condition when they finally got back on the ice. The result was an alarmingly low 34 points in 46 games to go with barely two shots per game. Being benched by coach John Tortorella during the playoffs (where he is generally considered to be at his best) didn’t help inspire confidence from fans and poolies.

Amazingly, even with the turmoil that was 2012-13, he returned this year in better shape and regained some of his old form. He managed to break 50 points and finished 12^th in the league for shots (259). The numbers appear even more impressive when you consider he only had nine secondary assists (which tend to vary randomly from year-to-year). For comparison, teammate Derek Stepan finished with 17. With a bit of luck Richards could have approached 60 points - not that far removed from his mid-round selection days.

What can we expect in the future?

There’s no question that Richards’ days as a point per game threat are likely over. So few guys, outside of perhaps Selanne or Hossa, are able to maintain elite status through their mid-thirties. However, with teammates like Nash, St.Louis, and Stepan possibly around for one or two more seasons at least there is a chance that he can sustain this level of production. If you draft him for 55 points, solid power play numbers, and 240 shots then you’ll be satisfied.

The name on the back of the jersey hasn’t changed, not at all. But we, in the fantasy community, may need to change how we value him moving forward.

Darren Kennedy is a contributor for Mckeen’s. You can find him on twitter @fantasyhockeydk. Make sure to check out our Mckeen’s facebook page.

NHL Buyout Candidates and the Fantasy Impact

Peter Harling — Mon, 27 May 2013 12:59:47 +0000

After being a healthy scratch in the post season has Brad Richards played his last game for the Rangers?

With the NHL salary cap declining from $70.2 million to $64.3 million for the 2013 season, the new CBA has provided each franchise with two compliance buyouts. This will allow teams to relieve themselves of hinder some contracts. Teams have two years to use their compliance buyout in either this, or next off season, and may use two in the same year or one in each, or none at all. All the CBA and buyout rules can be found in an easy to read format at capgeek.com. What separates a compliance buyout from a normal buyout is the cap hit. Teams will still need to pay out up to 2/3 of the remaining salary owed to the player. However it will not count towards the teams salary cap. Essentially a get out of jail free card.

So let’s take a look at who may be some of the top candidates for a compliance buyout, and what impact it may have on fantasy hockey.

1. 1. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver –Buyout total $27 million over 18 years

The Canucks are in salary cap hell as they are $100,000 over the cap with only 17 players signed for next season. The highly anticipated Luongo trade would provide them with $5,333,333 of cap room. A good start. One has to wonder, if the Canucks could trade Luongo would he not be traded already? GM Mike Gillis has been saying he has had interest from several teams but would only trade Luongo in a hockey deal. This summer there could be a buyer’s market for goaltending with potential goalies looking for a new jersey such as Ryan Miller, Nick Backstrom, Mike Smith, Tim Thomas, Ray Emery, Evgeni Nabokov, Steve Bernier and more. Perhaps a buyout is their only choice. With so many other options on the market this summer would any team take Luongo's term and contract at any price? If not, the answer is a buyout. The fantasy impact could actually be beneficial if you own Luongo. He can resign with any team other than Vancouver. With $27 million in his pocket he could sign for a very low contract, $2 million for example. Luongo is still a premier starting goalie and if his cap hit were closer to $2 million his value would be tremendous in capped leagues. The departure of Luongo benefits Schneider.

2. 2. Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders – Buyout total $24 million over 16 years

The Islanders are still paying Alexi Yashin over $2 million and have two more years until he is paid off. You can add DiPietro to their buyout bottom line as he has been buried in the minors since earlier in this season. His unfortunate health issues have derailed his career and he is no longer an NHL option. The Islanders have more difficulty reaching the cap floor than the ceiling so why would they buyout RDP? Because he is playing in the minors so his contract does not affect the salary cap. The team will have to pay him the money one way or another. He will be bought out and has no fantasy value before, or after.

3. 3. Brad Richards, New York Rangers – Buyout total $24 million over 14 years

The Rangers are no strangers to buying out bad contracts, Chris Drury and Wade Redden the most recent examples. Redden is the first compliance buyout used by the Rangers leaving them with one more. When Brad Richards was a healthy scratch in an elimination home game four against the Bruins, the topic of the day was will he be the other compliance buyout? The Rangers have cap room with 18 players signed at $51.5 million. However, several key players will need new contracts including Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, Mats Zuccarello, and Ryan McDonagh and therein lays the problem. Richards has had a terrible season and the question is, at 33 years old was this just an off year or has age caught up to him? If he has lost his game it would be an indigestible contract at $6.666 million over the next seven seasons. The Rangers may elect other cap management options for a solution this summer and save the compliance buyout for next year in hopes that Richards rebounds. The fantasy impact hinges on his ability to comeback. If he does he has value again (especially if he is bought out and resigns elsewhere for less) and if he does not his career is over. Stepan and Brassard would benefit from a Richards buyout.

4. 4. Ilya Bryzgalov, Philadelphia – Buyout total $23 million over 14 years

The goaltending gong show in Philadelphia was supposed to end with Bryzgalov, but it was just getting started. Mr. Universe has worn out his welcome in Philadelphia and maybe even in the NHL. It is highly likely that Ed Snider eats $23 million to say beat it to Bryzgalov, and that the next contract he signs is in the KHL. If bought out and if he resigns a NHL contract he will be a risky pick, even at a cheap cap hit. Is he worth a pick and dedicating a roster spot to? The reward could be significant if he pulls a Bobrovsky. Lets be honest, no one saw that coming! The Flyers cap is currently over $70 for next season and includes 25 players. A Bryzgalov buyout seems inevitable.

5. 5. Ville Leino, Buffalo – Buyout total $10 million over eight years

Leino is one of the worst free agent signings in recent memory. New Owner Terry Pegula took over and gave the green light to spend, and he will have to spend to purge Leino from the roster now. Buffalo may not like Leino's production for his pay, but they in fact do not need to buy him out. They have just under $49.5 million committed to 17 players next year. There is enough cap room to fill out the roster with Leino on the books. It is speculated that Buffalo will trade Ryan Miller this off season as well which could also free up cap room. Buffalo may also bury him in the minors as he no doubt would clear waivers. Fantasy impact if he is bought out could be good. Before his current contract he was sought after because he provided excellent value making the league minimum while in Philadelphia. If he is not bought out, he is more of an anchor than a sail in a capped league.

6. 6. Keith Ballard, Vancouver – Buyout total $5.6 million over four years

As mentioned above under Luongo, Vancouver has cap problems in a big way going forward and the only perceivable solution is using buyouts. Vancouver has almost $30 million of their available cap committed to five defensemen. Even though Ballard's $4.2 million cap hit is the smallest among the top five, it would provide significant relief. And of the group, Ballard has had the most difficulty remaining in the line-up, often finding himself in the press box. Ballard may find another NHL job, and may rebound on a new team. Worst case scenario he is fourth or fifth depth defenseman with an appropriate cap hit. Either way his fantasy value is very limited.

7. 7. Daniel Briere, Philadelphia – Buyout total $3.3 million over 4 years

Briere owns a no trade clause and it was rumored he refused to waive it close to the NHL trade deadline. If the Flyers want to drop Briere’s cap hit of $6.5 million a buyout may be the only way. His buyout is actually less than one million per year because his contract was front end loaded and he will only earn $3 million in the 2013 season and $2 million in the final season in 2014. At 34 years old and a family man now he may not choose to sign for another year since he has already refused to waive his no trade. Fantasy impact: It is very likely the Flyers do buyout Briere. The only question is if he retires or not. If he inks a new deal for $2 to $3 million he could be a steal (especially if your league includes the playoffs). Matt Read would benefit from a Briere buyout.

8. 8. Tomas Kaberle, Montreal – Buyout total $3 million over two years

Kaberle is perhaps the most probable candidate for a compliance buyout. Montreal has already burned one buyout on Scott Gomez and Kaberle will be the second. He is unable to make the team and his ability to play at the NHL level is long gone. Fantasy Impact: Kaberle has zero fantasy value in any league outside of the Czech Republic.

9. 9. Mike Komisarek, Toronto – Buyout total $2.33 million over two years

Banished to the AHL, Komisarek even had difficulty playing for the Marlies. Money is not a problem for the Leafs and if they believe they are better without him, even in the AHL, he will promptly be bought out. Komisarek has no fantasy value.

10. 10. Sergei Kostitsyn, Nashville – Buyout total $2 million over two years

While Nashville does not need a buyout to be cap compliant with $47 million committed to 16 players next year, I believe they are finished with Kostitsyn’s. After Sergei gave up on a play that directly led to a goal against and cost the game, the Pred’s season essentially ended. I believe that the team feels they will be better without him and buyout the remaining year of his deal. His three goals and minus -5 will not be missed. Sergei will join his brother in the KHL, he has no fantasy value.

After making a case for the top ten candidates for compliance buyouts, I think there will be only a select few who are actually bought out. I also gave consideration to other players such as Vincent Lecavalier, David Booth, and Marc-Andre Fleury but they didn’t make the list. The Buyout window begins on June 15^th or 48 hours after the final Stanley Cup game and closes June 30^th so we wont have to wait long to see who (if any) receive a compliance buyout.

NHL: Week 6 – Enigma Edition

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 06:15:41 +0000

Note*** A full NHL schedule breakdown by week is available here on a Google doc.

The document isn't restricted to the current week. The entire season breakdown is there along with various other breakdowns that are described in detail here.

MAKING SENSE OF ENIGMAS

Every NHL season has its share of enigmatic (A.K.A. frustrating) players. When considering what to do with these puzzling assets, fantasy owners participating in keeper formats are faced with an interesting (A.K.A. crucial) dilemma. Will things keep trending downward? Is the player actually entering the backside of his career or does he still have an upside; and if he does, is the context favorable to his ‘finding his game’ again?

The way these questions are answered and the resulting actions taken can make or break the long term outlook of your franchise. With this in mind let’s examine a few of this year’s crop of enigmas, looking for the right answers. For now, we cover the Eastern Conference.; we’ll look at the West in next week’s installment.

Brad Richards (C) and Marian Gaborik (RW) – NYR: The Manhattan duo has failed to click on a regular basis since Richards’ arrival last year as a free agent. Richards is an elite playmaker and Gaborik an elite sniper, so what’s the problem? We’re seeing a repeat of the same miscalculation this season with the Richards-Nash pairing. The problem is that Nash, like Gaborik, has learned to love handling the puck. That makes their game incompatible with Richards’, a set-up man his entire career. Now 32, the crafty centerman has either lost a step or is displaying frustration from not being able to play his style of game. Nash was playing well before the injury. Gaborik does have 7 goals and a shots-per-game ratio near his career average, so we wouldn’t worry too much in his case, despite last Saturday’s benching episode. But Richards had his the worst PPG season since his first two (2000-01 and 2001-02) a year ago and is on pace for his worst by far as we speak. The Tortorella-Richards marriage isn’t producing the same magic this time around and we simply don’t see the former point-a-game lock ever reaching those heights again.

Cam Ward (G) – CAR: Hard to believe Ward is an 8-year veteran. Still only 28, the Cup champ from his rookie year of 2005-06 is a highly competitive goalie who has battled consistency issues his whole career. When we look at his recent numbers however, we realize that he is generally steady year-to-year: .916, .916, .923 and .915 SP respectively the last four seasons. His bad spells come within a specific season, but his fighting spirit unfailingly has him back on his A-game eventually. Carolina has never been able to ice anything more than an average D core in front of Ward, which makes those numbers even more impressive and explains the yearly roller-coaster ride. He’s been spelled by back-up Dan Ellis lately and the Canes’ D is injury plagued, but we like the mid to long-term outlook in Carolina once the team learns to play the Kirk Muller way. Bench Ward for now, but don’t give up on him.

Tyler Myers (D) – BUF: This 6’ 8”, 227 lbs behemoth stunned everyone as a rookie in 2009-10, drawing Chara-type praise with 48 pts and a +13 rating. He regressed a bit in his sophomore year, but not dramatically. Since then however, his game has taken an alarming nose-dive. Many of the Sabres’ defensive warts have been masked by the excellence of Ryan Miller’s goaltending during the past few seasons. The current blueline unit is rather soft and lacks cohesion, but Miller is still there and he did regain his old form in last season’s second half. At 23, it is way too soon to say Myers’ rookie season was merely a mirage, but based on what we’ve seen from him (and the Sabres) since then, we do believe it probably was a career year. No more Chara comparisons please!

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NHL: Fantasy Sprint Tips – 2013

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 15:31:38 +0000

Finally! An exciting fantasy season is upon us. The one week mini-camps won’t allow for much data to clue us in on possible lines, pairings and specialty units. Nor will it give us any clues as to chemistry levels between new teammates. Coaches will scramble to install new systems without the benefit of exhibition games to test them out.

A short, compacted regular season is sure to produce its share of unpredictable events and stories. However from a fantasy standpoint, there are factors that can help us gage the level of production we can expect from certain players: game-shape (has the player been competing in a pro league during the lock-out?), projected lines and pairings, projected team strengths or weaknesses and coaching styles.

Throughout this specific analysis, it is also important not to lose site of the fact that the elite offensive players should remain the same. Remember the 1995 lock-out year? Eric Lindros and Jaromir Jagr tied for the scoring championship. There is no reason to believe a shortened season will mean any kind of drop-off for the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Erik Karlsson or Claude Giroux. Although if you draft them in a standard pool, you should weigh them differently than you would for a full 82-game season, simply because the total point differentials between them and second tier players will not be as dramatic.

As everyone scrambles to prepare for this frenetic-paced campaign, today we look at some of the not-so-obvious players (forwards, defensemen and goalies) we identified as “safe bets” or “buyer beware” and offer a brief explanation.

FORWARDS – SAFE BETS

Patrice Bergeron and Tyler Seguin (BOS): Projected mates on the Bruins 1B line, both dominated the Swiss league. Bergeron had 29 pts in 21 games when he left Lugano and led Canada to a landslide championship at the Spengler Cup. Seguin was even more impressive scoring at a near goal-a-game clip (29-25-15-40) for Biel. The two had already started clicking in the second half of last season. They look like a scary pair!

Brad Richards (NYR): The playmaking center finally has a top-flight goal scorer to feed in Rick Nash. Richards had a mediocre season in 2011-12 for his standards (82-25-41-66) and his assist ratio is sure to improve. Now 32, the extra rest (inactive during the lockout) should only benefit the veteran.

Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise and Dany Heatley (MIN): The Wild’s new All-World line is a match made in heaven. Not all ultra-skilled lines find immediate chemistry, but the speed of Parise, smarts of Koivu and shot and hands of Heatley should create 5-on-5 and PP magic in the Twin Cities. Parise’s and Koivu’s work ethic and enthusiasm are also certain to rub off on a sometimes indifferent Heatley.

EDM’s young guns: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall have arrived. NHL stardom is theirs to grab. They proved during the lockout that their precocious NHL success was no fluke, tearing up the best of all lockout leagues, the AHL. Moreover, their skill sets are complementary and will be augmented by PP quarterback and early Calder favorite Justin Schultz. Already in mid-season form, they present an explosive potential not seen in Oil-Town since the Gretzky-Kurri-Messier-Coffey combo.

FORWARDS – BUYER BEWARE

Kyle Okposo (NYI): It’s a common mistake fantasy owners make: overrating the third wheel on an explosive top line. John Tavares and Matt Moulson are proven commodities and will produce, even without their former linemate P-A. Parenteau (now with Colorado). But Okposo is a corridor winger and a shooter, a stark contrast to Parenteau’s playmaking skills. Tavares will become the playmaker on the line, but Moulson is likely to pick-up most of the goals, leaving only a few crumbs (in terms of points) for Okposo.

Ryan Callahan (NYR): The biggest fantasy loser with the arrival of Rick Nash, Callahan should be bumped from the first to the third line (going from Brad Richards to Brian Boyle as a centerman). He probably won’t see much time on the PP’s top unit either, since the Rangers will be looking for Derek Stepan to take on more of the offensive load.

DEFENSEMEN – SAFE BETS

Sergei Gonchar (OTT): Yes, the 38 y/o’s numbers have been down the past couple of seasons, but the sharp drop-off from three years back (when he was 62-11-39-50) suggests some kind of upward adjustment in his stats this year. The Sens have allot of skill up front and play an up-tempo offensive style. Add two impressive PP units that should produce and a solid KHL stint (36-3-26-29) and all signs point to a hot start for Erik Karlsson’s mentor.

Ryan Suter (MIN): See Wild’s All-World line above: he will be the only one pushing the puck up to those guys and the quarterback of a now elite PP unit. He’s officially out of Shea Weber’s imposing shadow.

Alex Pietrangelo (STL): Our best bet to have an Erik Karlsson-type breakout year. Same skill set and a young up-and-coming set of offensive forwards to feed the puck to. Coach Ken Hitchkock loves him and will keep riding his young horse to the tune of 25-30 minutes a game.

DEFENSEMEN – BUYER BEWARE

Here, we identify a few D-men that have exhibited offensive potential in the recent past, but find themselves in new circumstances that might hurt their chances of producing a significant amount of points this season. You should avoid over-evaluating these players based solely on their past production or potential.

Nikita Nikitin (CLB): A full season of James Wisniewski and Jack Johnson manning the points on the first PP unit means precious few quality offensive chances for Columbus’ bright light from last year.

Ryan Whitney (EDM): Justin Schultz will eclipse him and take over as the first unit quarterback. The Oilers are likely to use 4 forwards on the squad, bumping Whitney down to a much less threatening second unit.

Tom Gilbert (MIN): It’s a mistake to think Gilbert’s numbers will automatically improve because of his new explosive entourage in Minnesota. He should get top PP minutes, but he is the obvious weaker link of the unit. Make no mistake, most scoring plays will run through Suter and the forwards, and since there are only three points available on every goal, Gilbert will often be one of the two members left off the scoresheet.

GOALIES – SAFE BETS

Henrik Lundqvist (NYR): The defense in front of him is strong individually and also very cohesive under John Tortorella’s tight system. He’s been the most consistent netminder for the past three seasons. You can bank on Hank!

Tuukka Rask (BOS): His time has come. Tim Thomas’ one year hiatus has paved the way for the young Finn to backstop one of the elite teams in the East. No reason to doubt the Claude Julien lead squad will be anything but disciplined and responsible in their zone.

Mike Smith (PHO): Some might think last season was a fluke, but we have always believed this type of breakthrough was inevitable for this big, athletic stud of a goalie. Dave Tippett’s defensive system is a proven playoff-guarantying commodity and his defense is bolstered by the return of shot-blocking and under-rated Zbynek Michalek.

GOALIES – BUYER BEWARE

Carey Price (MTL): He is a young horse and the Habs do have a deep defense corps, but they will be grossly over-matched offensively on most nights. This will put enormous pressure on the wonder-kid and will mean more inconsistent play despite the added grit to the Montreal roster. The Canadiens need an influx of talented forwards to allow for more puck-possession time before Price becomes a prized fantasy asset.

Braden Holtby (WAS): Holtby’s incredible playoff run came under Dale Hunter’s strict defensive scheme. New bench boss Adam Oates has promised a return to the run-and-gun style of the past in the Capital, which bodes well for Alex Ovechkin and company, but might hurt Holtby’s numbers. He also got off to a slow start in the AHL this year, before finding his bearings.

Pekka Rinne (NAS): The loss of Ryan Suter’s steadying influence cannot be understated. Don’t expect a huge drop-off, as Rinne’s fantasy value has been well established over the past three seasons. But Nashville’s defense will feature three brand new pairings and very little experience. Rinne was also uncharacteristically inconsistent during his lockout stint in the KHL (.897 SP).

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