braden holtby – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 28 Jan 2022 13:49:02 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half.

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) skates during the first period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Calgary Flames on March 22, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Second year Ottawa Senators center Tim Stutzle had some early struggles in terms of production, coming up with just eight points (1 G, 7 A) in the first 21 games, but even during that slump, he would show flashes of potential. Well, the production is starting to come now for Stutzle, who has moved to centre, and he has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. With Drake Batherson and Josh Norris injured, the Sens will need Stutzle’s production even more.

#2 It is starting to look like the St. Louis Blues have something of a goaltending controversy on their hands, as Ville Husso has been playing so well that he is starting to take time away from Jordan Binnington. After Thursday’s win against Calgary, Husso has started four of the past five games for the Blues and his save percentage is up to .944 in 14 games this season. That is unsustainably high but when a goaltender is playing that well, he deserves the opportunity to play to find out just how sustainable his performance might be.

#3 While pleasant surprises can get lost on a losing team, there is fantasy value to be uncovered in some of those situations. Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson was a big part of the trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to the Blues, but it has taken some time for the 6-foot-7 forward to make his mark in the NHL. In his past nine games, Thompson has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal, giving him 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 39 games this season and he now looks like a core piece in the Sabres’ rebuild.

#4 The Pittsburgh Penguins signed 37-year-old Jeff Carter to a two-year contract extension, and he earned it. In his past 17 games, Carter has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 48 shots on goal. When Carter was winding up his time in Los Angeles, he scored on just 8.0% of his shots in his last two-plus seasons with the Kings, a span of 176 games. In 51 games since joining the Penguins, Carter has scored on 13.9% of his shots. When the percentages change to that degree, the whole perception of a player can shift, too.

#5 Although he can get overshadowed by the stars in Tampa Bay, Lightning center Anthony Cirelli is enjoying a strong bounce-back season after he faded badly in the second half of last season. Cirelli has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past seven games, giving him 27 points (12 G, 15 A) in 39 games while logging career-high ice time of 19:36 per game.

CHICAGO, IL - JANUARY 21: Chicago Blackhawks Center Dylan Strome (17) and Minnesota Wild Left Wing Matt Boldy (12) skate in action during a game between the Minnesota Wild and the Chicago Blackhawks on January 21, 2022 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

#6 We covered Minnesota Wild rookie winger Matt Boldy when he was first called up from the AHL, but not enough fantasy managers have been paying attention because he is still widely available. The 20-year-old has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal in seven games and has played more than 17 minutes in five of those games. The opportunity is there in Minnesota for Boldy to keep putting up points especially since he’s getting time on the Wild’s first power play unit.

#7 It has not been an easy season for Chicago Blackhawks center Dylan Strome, who has had spotty playing time, been a healthy scratch, and seems destined for a trade out of the Windy City, but Strome has been scoring more lately and that can’t hurt his marketability. After a hat trick at Detroit on Wednesday, Strome has nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 15 shots on goal in his past eight games.

#8 For deep league value, consider Nashville Predators winger Luke Kunin, who supplements his offense – 5 G, 1 A in the past 10 GP – with a decent shot rate (24 shots on goal in the past 10 games) and an elite hit rate (32 hits in those 10 games). It’s enough to give him fantasy appeal when his pure offensive production might not be enough to get there.

#9 Skating on Tim Stutzle’s wing has worked well for speedy Ottawa Senators winger Alex Formenton, who has gone from fourth liner to productive scorer in the blink of an eye. Formenton has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal in the past 14 games, playing more than 15 minutes per game in the process.

#10 It is not yet to the point of a goaltending controversy in Colorado, but Avalanche netminder Pavel Francouz is playing well enough that he might force his way into a bigger role if Darcy Kuemper does not improve (or if the Avs trade for another goaltender). Francouz missed all of last season and the start of this season but in seven games played he does have a .932 save percentage, and he is coming off back-to-back shutouts. The Avalanche are enough of a powerhouse that whoever is getting the chance to play in net for them is going to provide fantasy value.

#11 If I told you that there are two New Jersey Devis forwards averaging a point per game this season, Jack Hughes would probably be an easy enough pick for one of the players, but how long would it be before you guess Jesper Bratt? The 23-year-old has put up 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in the past 10 games and has a career-high 39 points in 39 games.

#12 Los Angeles Kings winger Adrian Kempe has hit a career high with 18 goals in 41 games. He is scoring on a career high 14.8% of his shots but that is not an outrageous percentage and, importantly, Kempe is generating shots on goal. After putting up 2.27 shots on goal per game last season, Kempe is up to 2.98 shots on goal per game this season. He is skating on the Kings’ top line and getting first-unit power play time, so Kempe is in a good spot to maintain that level of production.

#13 Demoted to the American Hockey League earlier in the season, Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray is showing some positive signs recently. Tread carefully, because Murray’s recent track record is not great, but he does have a .937 save percentage in his past five starts and fantasy managers that need goaltending at this stage of the season might need to consider him.

#14 After posting a career-low save percentage of .889 last season, Dallas Stars goaltender Braden Holtby is delivering a strong season in Dallas. Holtby has a .917 save percentage in 21 games this season, which would be his highest save percentage in a season since 2016-2017. As long as the Stars are in playoff contention, Holtby probably stays in a tandem with Jake Oettinger, but if the Stars lose ground, Holtby might draw some interest in the trade market.

#15 It has obviously been a terrible season for the Montreal Canadiens, but the Habs’ struggles do present an opportunity to grab undervalued assets. Veteran winger Tyler Toffoli started slowly this season and has landed on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues as a result but is working his way out of it. In the past 13 games, Toffoli has contributed 13 points (4 G, 9 A) and 34 shots on goal.

#16 Although his point production ebbs and flows, Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard continues to offer fantasy value because of his ability to get the puck to the net. In the past nine games, Bouchard has just three points (2 G, 1 A) but he also has 24 shots on goal in that time and has played more than 23 minutes in six of those nine games.

#17 Second-year Chicago Blackhawks winger Brandon Hagel is playing his way into fantasy relevance. He has moved up the Chicago depth chart to play with Patrick Kane and Dylan Strome, and Hagel has scored six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past seven games, playing more than 18 minutes in each of those seven games.

#18 According to Natural Stat Trick, the forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations this season (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes) are: Matthew Tkachuk (1.59), Sebastian Aho (1.59), John Tavares (1.54), Andrei Svechnikov (1.50), Sam Bennett (1.45), Timo Meier (1.44), Connor McDavid (1.42), Max Pacioretty (1.42), Auston Matthews (1.42), and Chris Kreider (1.41).

#19 Defensemen with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes): Dougie Hamilton (0.61), Roman Josi (0.46), Aaron Ekblad (0.42), Cale Makar (0.42), Victor Hedman (0.42), Zach Werenski (0.42), Adam Boqvist (0.41), Shea Theodore (0.41), Darnell Nurse (0.41), and Damon Severson (0.41).

#20 As was rumored, the Edmonton Oilers signed left winger Evander Kane to a one-year contract. The Oilers are desperate to make the playoffs and could present a fantastic opportunity for Kane. Throughout his career, Kane has been an elite shot generator and has scored more than 25 goals in a season five times. If he ends up with an opportunity to play alongside Connor McDavid, that could lift Kane to new heights offensively. Kane has not played in the NHL this season but did have eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five AHL games.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS -Tarasenko and Ovechkin look like their old selves plus much more.

Scott Cullen — Wed, 27 Oct 2021 22:21:43 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Vladimir Tarasenko looks like his old self. Same goes for Alex Ovechkin. Points on Sam Bennett, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrei Svechnikov, Yanni Gourde and much more.

#1 While he apparently still wants to be traded, St. Louis Blues right winger Vladimir Tarasenko is doing his part to create a market for his services. After playing less than 13 minutes per game in the first game of the season, Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past four games. He obviously has a strong track record, as a five-time 30-goal scorer, but there have been concerns about his surgically repaired shoulder, but the way that Tarasenko is playing now – leading the league with 5.20 shots on goal per game, the shoulder does not appear to be a problem.

#2 The Washington Capitals have this winger who it turns out knows how to score a little bit. Alex Ovechkin is 36 years old and is off to the best start of his career. In six games, Ovi has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and is still generating more than four shots on goal per game. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record is starting to heat up, even if it’s going to be years away, and part of the reason to believe is that 36-year-old Ovechkin is still hugely productive.

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 16: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) prepares to shoot during the second period of a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Vancouver Canucks on October 16, 2021 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Coming into the season, there were not a lot of rookies who looked like they would score at a huge rate as rookies. That might still be case in the end but, right now, Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has started his NHL career with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. After scoring 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, this has been an accelerated timeline on Raymond being a big NHL scorer but he is getting a first line shot alongside Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, which is a pretty solid opportunity.

#4 When the Florida Panthers acquired Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames, Bennett showed up in South Florida as a different player. He produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games for the Panthers, but it was a small sample, and it would have been fair to expect him to fall of that pace. Early in this season, Bennett has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in six games.

#5 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk has been productive offensively early in this season, scoring three even-strength goals and adding three power-play assists in seven games. He is also getting caved in, with a 31.1 CF%, so he is riding some high percentage good fortune to that early point production but being on the wrong end of shot share to that degree should be alarming.

#6 The Winnipeg Jets did not get the best version of Pierre-Luc Dubois when they acquired him from Columbus last season, as Dubois stumbled his way to 20 points (8 G, 12 A) in 41 games. After a full offseason to prepare, Dubois has arrived ready to contribute and has seven points (4 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He has scored on half of his shots so far this season, and that obviously won’t continue, but Dubois has stepped up with Mark Scheifele out and when Scheifele returns, Dubois figures to be the second line centre that the Jets thought they were getting last season.

#7 Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner scored 30 goals in 2015-2016 but has not approached that level since and his fantasy value, if any, has been more closely aligned with hits and blocked shots. However, he is playing net front on the Columbus power play this season and has scored three of his four goals this season with the man advantage. Jenner is playing a career-high 20:20 per game so his role might be significant enough to give him fantasy relevance in 2021-2022.

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#8 Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov did not break out he might have been expected to last season, but we might be a year late on the breakout season. The 21-year-old, who was the second pick in the 2018 Draft, Svechnikov has points in all five Hurricanes games this season, on his way to nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in those five games for a Carolina team that has won all five.

#9 Puck-moving defenceman Nate Schmidt had a disappointing season for the Vancouver Canucks last season, his only season with the team, but he appears to be responding well to a fresh start in Winnipeg. Schmidt has six assists in the past four games, so there is reason to be encouraged, but he is still on the wrong end of the shot battle (46.9 CF%) which should temper some expectations for continued success. So maybe the reasonable position to take is that Schmidt will be better than last season in Vancouver, when he had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) in 54 games, but probably not continue at his current pace of six points in six games.

#10 Seattle Kraken centre Yanni Gourde made a relatively quick return from offseason shoulder surgery, and not only does he have three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first three games, but he has nine shots on goal and is playing 21:57 per game, a pretty big increase over the 17:04 per game that he played in Tampa Bay last season – his previous career high.

#11 Now that Carter Hutton is injured, and out for the next 2-4 weeks, Karel Vejmelka has an opportunity to prove he is a legitimate NHL goaltender. The 25-year-old has an .899 save percentage in five appearances for the Coyotes this season after posting a .913 save percentage in 163 games in the Czech League. Ivan Prosvetov has been called up from the AHL, and he will see some action, too, but the Coyotes are not especially interested in winning this season so if their goaltending ends up being subpar, it really does not interfere with their main objectives.

#12 Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane is currently out of the lineup while in Covid-19 protocol and will face scrutiny in the wake of the investigation into the Blackhawks scandal, but there has been a relentless pace to his production, even as the team around him has crumbled. Kane has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in five games.

#13 Notable forwards that have played at least five games and are still seeking their first point of the season: Tampa Bay’s Corey Perry, Toronto’s Nick Ritchie, the Islanders’ Zach Parise, San Jose’s Nick Bonino, Detroit’s Pius Suter, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, and Edmonton’s Kailer Yamamoto. From that group, Bratt was one of my favourite value picks coming into the season and he would still have a higher ceiling than some of those veteran options. Interesting to note that several of these players have changed teams and have struggled to produce early with their new teams.

#14 Forwards with the most shots on goal without a goal yet: Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Montreal’s Josh Anderson, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Montreal’s Cole Caufield, Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube, Detroit’s Pius Suter, and Los Angeles’ Arthur Kaliyev. It is not hard to figure out why the Canadiens are struggling when Gallagher, Anderson and Caufield have combined for zero goals on 49 shots.

#15 While his early production has not been anything special, managing two points (1 G, 1 A) in seven games, Vancouver Canucks defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has put 28 shots on goal. Four shots on goal per game leads defencemen (minimum five games played) and would easily be a career-high for Ekman-Larsson, who has not recorded 2.50 shots on goal per game since 2015-2016. That shot rate is enough reason to hold out hope for Ekman-Larsson this season.

#16 Seattle Kraken winger Brandon Tanev has scored five goals in his first seven games with the expansion team but while the goals have been welcome, it is not coming from a sustainable place. Tanev has scored on 38.5% of his shots and, on top of that, has not picked up any assists. He could still have the first 30-point season of his career, but this early-season burst is not something to expect from Tanev in the long run.

#17 Minnesota Wild defenceman Matt Dumba is producing early in the season, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in six games and all of those points coming at evens. Dumba is generating 3.67 shots per game, a massive increase on his 1.75 shots per game last season, so he could be more of an offensive weapon for the Wild this season after a couple of seasons with relatively mediocre production.

#18 One of my sleeper candidates coming into the season was Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak, who had 18 points (5 G, 13 A) and 98 hits in 46 games last season. Those numbers get him into the fantasy discussion for deeper leagues, but Cernak might have another category that gives him an advantage. While he has two assists in seven games this season, he also has 25 shots on goal, a massive jump after averaging 1.86 shots on goal per game through the first three seasons of his NHL career. If his shot rate stays high, even if not at its current lofty rate, Cernak can have stealth fantasy value.

#19 There have been some outstanding goaltending performances early in the season, from Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins, Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, to Dallas’ Braden Holtby. All of those goaltenders have a save percentage of .939 or better in the very early going this season and all of them would have been relatively suspect entering the season.

Merzlikins’ main concern was not having the strongest team in front of him.

Andersen had struggled with performance and injuries in the previous two seasons with Toronto.

Anderson is a 40-year-old who played four games for Washington last season.

Bobrovsky’s past two seasons in Florida have been well-documented and it looked like rookie Spencer Knight could steal the starting job.

Holtby has been in decline for four seasons and in the past two seasons has finished with a save percentage under .900. Mix that in with a crowded Stars crease and it did not look like a great time to be optimistic about the performance of Braden Holtby.

A couple of things: 1. Goaltenders are voodoo. 2. This is a very small sample of games for each of these goalies. 3. There is nothing wrong with grabbing the hot goaltender for a little while until that heat cools off.

#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum is Chicago’s Marc-Andre Fleury. He was not sure that he wanted to join the Blackhawks after he was traded from the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason and has lost his first four games while posting a .839 save percentage. Combine that with the team’s problems on and off the ice and it has been a rather dramatic shift in fortunes for the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner.

NHL EXPANSION DRAFT: Seattle Roster by the Numbers

Alison Lukan and Shayna Goldman — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 13:25:18 +0000

In just under 48 hours, the Seattle Kraken will have the very first roster of players in franchise history courtesy of Wednesday’s Expansion Draft. 30 other teams (lucky Vegas is exempt) have labored over protection lists, and now it’s up to Seattle to pour through the available players and select one individual from each NHL club to join its organization. There are rules of course: the final roster must include 30 players – one from each team – and include a minimum of 17 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders with a minimum total cap hit of $48.9 million.

It’s a fun but daunting task to think about all the options and resulting on-ice product, so we decided to join the fray and come up with our own projection for the Kraken team with a data-driven approach.

For player valuation, we used Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) measure to quantify what each player contributes on ice. We also considered a player's “expected” GAR (xGAR) to consider how a player performed compared to what was expected of them. We then also looked at this performance relative to cost (using annualized cap hit values from CapFriendly.com) to fill out our roster within the Draft guidelines.

With tremendous thanks to both of those online resources, here is our take on what the inaugural Kraken Draft class might look like.

THE ROSTER

THE DOLLARS AND SENSE

NOTES AND THOUGHTS:

The roster of signed players had a cumulative cap hit of about $58 million. On the viz above, to get a gauge of what some of those free agents could sign for, we used Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. We’ll be honest, some teams had fewer attractive options than others and some of our picks (Fischer, Jarnkrok, Johnsson, Tierney) we view as bait for future trades or flips – some of which will help lower that 2021-22 cap that is over the limit with the featured projections. Also, while acknowledging there could be no shortage of side deals that influence these selections, we picked players with the expectation that they were who Seattle wanted without any constraints.

Here’s some of the players who stood out to us:

Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Dougie Hamilton (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

DEFENSE:

Dougie Hamilton (D | Carolina Hurricanes)

We really like our defense overall, and Hamilton is arguably the cornerstone of that. He was a legitimate Norris candidate this past season, as he continues to have driven play while maintaining a positive defense impact. Any blue line would be lucky to have the skill that the right-handed back brings and according to Evolving-Hockey’s projection, that comes at a $8.5 million cap hit.

Mark Giordano (D | Calgary Flames)

Here’s our nod to the old school traditions of hockey. Giordano is in the older range of players we selected, and while that can raise some concern from a longevity perspective, he’s coming off a season where he had a team-high GAR of 12.7, which was also fifth best among all NHL defensemen. Add in a solid reputation as a leader - something a brand new team will need - and Giordano is a natural fit on and off the ice.

Shayne Gostisbehere (D | Philadelphia Flyers)

Just because the rest of the league passed on acquiring Gostisbehere when the Flyers put him on waivers doesn’t mean Seattle will. The leftie’s on ice impacts have slipped over the last two seasons, but a change of scenery should help him bounce back – so could time with Dave Hakstol, who was his bench boss for three and a half seasons earlier in his career.

Vince Dunn (D | St. Louis Blues)

Like Gostisbehere, there have been reports that the defender could be on the move. He isn’t really used in high leverage situations in St. Louis but has solid results in the minutes he’s played thus far in his career. The 24-year-old has the potential to help the Kraken grow on defense for years to come and gives some flexibility as he plays both the left and right side.

FORWARDS:

Josh Bailey (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Josh Bailey (LW/RW | New York Islanders)

Unlike Gostisbehere and Dunn, Bailey’s availability is more of a surprise. The Islanders’ forward scores at the rate of a top-sixer and can provide two-way play on either wing. His versatility adds value as the veteran could shift around the lineup to wherever he’s most needed. If not Bailey, Seattle does have options from this squad; Jordan Eberle is also available and is the better option offensively if management feels they need more scoring up front.

Yanni Gourde (C/LW/RW | Tampa Bay Lightning)

While teams are throwing salary and term at Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, the Kraken have the option of getting one of the most valuable pieces of that line for free. While he primarily played on the third line in Tampa Bay these last two seasons, Gourde could slot into most teams’ top-six, and can be deployed in all situations. Skating at either wing or center, the versatile forward creates offense both off the rush and forecheck, driving play with his passing and shooting. He gets to work every shift, pressuring for turnovers, and is defensively responsible despite his 5-foot-9 frame.

Philip Danault (C | Montreal Canadiens)

Danault may not be as high scoring as other top-six centers around the league, but he’s one of the best defensive centers right now which is why there’s going to be interest in him once free agency begins. Seattle gets to take a crack at him early, and Evolving-Hockey projects a $6.2 million cap hit. On a team of players put together just months before puck drop, Danault’s defensive play would be a source of stability. And with the right offensively inclined linemate, he could bolster his play on the other end of the ice too.

Andreas Athanasiou (C/LW/RW | LA Kings)

The knock on Athanasiou has always been that while he’s an offensive dynamo, his defensive play is non-existent. That’s still true, but paired with proper linemates, a team may be able to protect and utilize him in the proper way. He’s coming off a nice rebound last year and could be productive in the Pacific Northwest.

GOALTENDERS:

We approached our goaltending choices as a solution in its entirety more than thinking of each player one at a time. We wanted an established and seasoned veteran who understands and has experience with a true starter’s role. Enter Braden Holtby. He is still strong in net, and while costly, doesn’t have a Carey Price-esque contract. Holtby can provide stability in net while also being a mentor to Chris Dreidger. The young Panther is widely expected to join Seattle and his performance this past season gives a glimpse into what could be an exciting staple in net long term for the Kraken. He can play well in net as a backup while likely carrying a larger load than a traditional backup might, while preparing to become the eventual starter. Our third selection, Malcolm Subban, brings in a very solid security blanket in the number three spot. Subban has NHL experience at an affordable price.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, and CapFriendly

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Hall delivering, Benn and Gurianov Stepping up, Barzal, Tkachuk and Kardi fading down stretch plus more ..

Scott Cullen — Wed, 28 Apr 2021 19:50:54 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Boston Bruins got just what they needed with the acquisition of Taylor Hall. Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov are stepping up for the Stars while Mathew Barzal, Matthew Tkachuk and Nazem Kadri are fading down the stretch.

#1 In one of the more predictable outcomes of the trade deadline, Bruins center David Krejci is thriving with Taylor Hall on his wing, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) in nine games since the Bruins acquired the 2017-2018 Hart Trophy winner. Krejci had scored two goals in 35 games before the trade.

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 13: Boston Bruins left wing Taylor Hall (11) takes a shot off the face off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres on April 13, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#2 The move has been good for Taylor Hall, too. Sure, he has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in nine games with Boston, but Hall’s underlying numbers have exploded. In his first nine games with Boston, the Bruins are generating shot attempts, shots, and expected goals at least 25% higher than when Hall was on the ice with the Buffalo Sabres. Playing on a dominant Bruins team works in Hall’s favor, too, as he is generating 3.33 shots per game in Boston, compared to 2.38 per game in Buffalo, and this despite Hall’s average time on ice dropping from 18:41 per game in Buffalo to 15:57 per game in Boston.

#3 Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn has been making a difference down the stretch and it appears as though working in the middle of the ice is bringing out his best. There have been 19 games this season, including each of his past 12 games, in which Benn has taken at least 10 draws and in those 19 games, Benn has produced 18 points (7 G, 11 A). He has 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in the 26 games in which he takes fewer than 10 faceoffs.

#4 Islanders center Mathew Barzal is slumping late in the season. He has no goals and two assists with 11 shots on goal in seven games since the trade deadline and the Islanders have earned one regulation win in those seven games. That’s not great, obviously, but his schedule does get easier. In the past seven games, three were against the Capitals and two against the Bruins. The Islanders’ next six games include a pair against the Rangers, a couple at Buffalo, and two against New Jersey so there should be opportunities for Barzal to snap out of this untimely slump.

#5 As the Calgary Flames try to remain in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the North Division, left winger Matthew Tkachuk has no goals and three assists in the past 10 games. He has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 22 games since Darryl Sutter took over behind the Flames bench, averaging 16.33 time on ice per game under Sutter after playing 19:35 per game before the coaching change.

#6 There is good news in Calgary, though. Johnny Gaudreau had difficulty getting going when Sutter took over, managing four points and 25 shots on goal in 14 games. More recently, though, Gaudreau has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#7 While the Buffalo Sabres have endured a miserable season, Sam Reinhart has been a leader for them late in the season. In nine games since the trade deadline, he has produced 10 points (8 G, 2 A) with 30 shots on goal.

#8 As the Dallas Stars try to push for a playoff spot, they have been getting contributions from a bunch of players. Denis Gurianov led the Stars with 20 goals last season but went through a stretch in the middle of this season in which he scored two goals in 33 games. He has emerged from that slump with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#9 It was something of a surprise when Mikael Granlund re-signed with the Nashville Predators in the offseason because he had not been very productive in his time there, producing 35 points in 79 games coming into the 2021 season. Granlund had his own midseason slump but has been a valuable contributor to Nashville’s playoff push, scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in his past 19 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues made veteran winger Mike Hoffman a healthy scratch late last month after he had managed two points (1 G, 1 A) with 17 shots on goal in the previous 10 games. With the Blues getting healthier, they had more forward options and if Hoffman isn’t producing offensively, his value is limited. Since that reset, Hoffman has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in nine games, despite averaging a modest 13:57 of ice time per game.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 24: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) shoots the puck during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New Jersey Devils on April 24, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Shots are a foundational aspect when it comes to fantasy hockey value. Both as the source of goals scored but also because those shots count as their own category in most cases. In the past month there are 14 players that are generating at least 3.50 shots per game and there are a bunch of familiar names in that group – Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Ovechkin etc. – but there are some surprises, too. Maybe the biggest surprise in that group is New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes, who is averaging 3.50 shots per game in the past month and his point production has picked up, too. Hughes has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the past 12 games, despite playing for a Devils squad that snapped a 10-game winless slide with Tuesday’s win against Philadelphia.

#12 There are 121 defensemen that have played at least 750 all-situations minutes this season. Of the 121, the top five in shots plus blocked shots per 60 minutes are: Alec Martinez (12.60), Alexander Edler (12.16), Jakob Chychrun (11.88), Alex Pietrangelo (11.87), and Dougie Hamilton (11.64).

At the other end of the spectrum: Cam Fowler (5.77), John Marino (5.94), Marc Staal (6.06), Brenden Dillon (6.21), and Nick Leddy (6.31).

Considering that Martinez also ranks 24^th among defensemen with 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 46 games, he has been shockingly valuable – like Top 10 on defense – for fantasy purposes.

#13 When the Vegas Golden Knights put Chandler Stephenson in the center spot on their top line, between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, it seemed that he might just be keeping the spot warm for, say, Cody Glass, a high draft pick with the offensive potential to be a No. 1 center. Glass has had a few opportunities in that role but not nearly enough to supplant Stephenson, who has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past nine games, giving him 29 points in 42 games this season.

#14 For the first half of the season Jeff Petry was one of the top fantasy defensemen, scoring 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 30 games but his pace has slowed down, with no goals and six assists in 17 games since. That’s really not a surprise, since Petry’s inflated percentages were unlikely to last all season. He is still among the top ten defensemen overall, but regression has come for the Habs blueliner.

#15 The story is even worse for Montreal’s Shea Weber, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past 13 games, leaving him with 19 points in 47 games, his lowest per-game scoring rate since 2007-2008. Weber is famous for his devastating slapshot but he is not getting as many pucks to the net anymore either. Weber is averaging 2.13 shots per game this season. after three straight seasons with at least 2.85 shots per game, and it is his lowest per-game shot rate since 2006-2007.

#16 Around St. Patrick’s Day is when the Colorado Avalanche really started to hit their stride and the Avs have scored 3.98 goals per 60 minutes in all situations since then. Their top line is scoring a ton and a lot of complementary players have contributed to that prolific stretch. One who has not contributed nearly as much as might be expected is center Nazem Kadri who has four points (1 G, 3 A) in those 19 games, and this is despite Kadri recording 58 shots on goal.

#17 There are 27 forwards that have recorded at least 100 hits this season and none of them have as many points as Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal, who has 37 points (16 G, 21 A). The next highest scoring forwards with at least 100 hits are Andrei Svechnikov (36), Brady Tkachuk (32), Matthew Tkachuk (31), and Chris Kreider (30).

#18 Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner has been the top fantasy goalie over the past month, posting a .941 save percentage on his way to a 7-0-1 record in eight starts. Injuries have cut into Lehner’s season, but he has just one regulation loss in 15 starts all season.

#19 The next most valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Boston’s Jeremy Swayman and Tuukka Rask are at two and three, respectively, then Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic, Vancouver’s Braden Holtby, and Detroit’s Thomas Greiss. Goaltenders are voodoo.

#20 The least valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo, New Jersey’s Mackenzie Blackwood, Toronto’s David Rittich, Detroit’s Jonathan Bernier, and Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. This end of the spectrum is not as surprising, though Lankinen had a pretty good run when he was first called up to Chicago early in the season.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: Sharing the Crease – How the emergence of the goaltender tandem could change your drafting needs

Catherine Silverman — Mon, 09 Sep 2019 21:17:41 +0000

For decades upon decades, the NHL was largely a one-goaltender league. Exceptions were made for the very old, the very young, and the not-very-good — and of course, every team technically had two goaltenders in the lineup on any given night. But if a team had found a goaltender good enough to win them games, they did their best to give him every opportunity to do that — literally.

No part of the game has undergone a more drastic change than goaltending, though. The position has gone from being one of the most stationary in the game to arguably the most physically demanding, requiring both fine-tuned mechanics and immense levels of core strength.

The game was once played from a goaltender’s skates, with a handful of diving saves and sprawling poke checks to keep things interesting. Now, it’s largely played from a goaltender’s knees, relying on that core strength to add an extra height dimension to an already-impressive range of mobility in order to keep up with the way shooters keep finding new ways to score. It’s no longer a game that relies purely on instinct; there’s an immense amount of athleticism required now, too.

The best goaltenders in the game know how to take care of their bodies, and they’re all in good enough shape to handle the rigors of the modern game. But the human body can only withstand so much without getting ample recovery time, and goaltenders don’t play games in shifts; with at least 60 minutes of action each night and both practice and travel to account for, the NHL season doesn’t leave much left in the tank.

The Jonathan Quicks and Braden Holtbys of the NHL have proven that they can handle a massive regular season workload without losing their ability to drag their teams into the playoffs, but teams have finally started to figure out that 60- and 70-game seasons don’t leave their goaltenders in the kind of shape to steal games when the postseason rolls around. Goaltenders who have played heavy workloads behind defensively inconsistent teams have struggled to make it out of the first round in the last handful of years — fans need to look no farther than Frederik Andersen and Andrei Vasilevskiy for proof of that — and even those that do make it out have struggled more and more as the playoffs go on.

That realization has brought about a major shift in goaltender deployment. Where teams used to have a clear starter and a passable (but oftentimes unremarkable) backup, more and more have embraced the idea of having a pair of number one caliber goaltenders instead of a number one and a number two. The ‘starting goalie controversy’ of years past has died — and for fantasy owners, that’s a shift that could have massive ramifications on how teams are assembled.

Last season produced an almost unheard-of Vezina finalist trio. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the ultimate winner, shoulder the clear bulk of his team’s workload in net during the year — but the other two finalist, Dallas’ Ben Bishop and New York’s Robin Lehner, each played as one half of a clearly embraced tandem. They weren’t alone, either; the Boston Bruins used a strongly reliable Jaroslav Halak to split up starter Tuukka Rask’s workload, rendering him rested enough for an incredibly strong run to the Cup Final.

New Jersey Devils goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood (29) Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

The league should see even more teams embrace the tandem mentality this year, and not just because they boast a pair of unknowns or underperformers. The Arizona Coyotes have gone on record saying they hope to be able to balance Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper to keep both well-rested, while the Chicago Blackhawks are likely prepared to split starts for Corey Crawford and the aforementioned Lehner while the Islanders add Semyon Varlamov to their tandem, instead. Even if Jonathan Quick bounces back, the Kings will likely meter his starts alongside resurgent star Jack Campbell, and a similar bounce-back for Cory Schneider would still almost certainly result in nothing more than a split net in New Jersey between him and MacKenzie Blackwood.

For fantasy owners, this means a larger chance that drafting a good goaltender means he’ll get starts — and in theory, a smaller chance that he’ll get injured from overuse. There’s a larger pool of quality goaltenders to choose from now, meaning that there’s a higher likelihood of good performances coming for at least one goaltender owned on any given night.

The downside, of course, is that it also means that there will be fewer goaltenders available to draft that will be capable of logging points purely from a game volume perspective. Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Frederik Andersen are all likely to shoulder massive workloads again this year, and the uncertainty in Colorado and Columbus surrounding a pair of largely unproven goaltenders in Pavel Francouz and Elvis Merzlikins — combined on both teams with a lack of help available in the minors — means that both of those teams could end up seeing a starter-dominant deployment next year as well.

For most teams, though, there should be more wealth to choose from when picking up goaltenders for fantasy teams. And for those scouring the prospect market for their keeper leagues, young goaltenders will no longer be quite as much of a risk. More teams are willing to give up-and-comers ample workloads alongside their already-proven stars, meaning that young AHL goaltenders with good numbers could be good sleeper picks just a year or two down the line. Prospects like Cal Petersen, Michael DiPietro, Joseph Woll, and even Alex Nedeljkovic will likely see their NHL call-ups sooner rather than later and could get plenty of action when they do get those nods.

Under the Radar Fantasy All-Star Team

Scott Cullen — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 19:29:20 +0000

The name of the game, when it comes to fantasy hockey, is to derive the best possible value from your draft picks.

Value can come in many forms. Maybe it’s just getting the expected performance out of a blue-chip player, and at the end of the year you can say thank you to Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby for being great. It can also be about getting a player with no expectations that turns out to be productive enough to contribute to your squad’s fantasy success.

As billionaire investor Warren Buffett said, “The price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

That means that every round, when you make your pick, that is the price you pay for that given player. The way to extract relative value on draft day, though, is to get players that will perform better than their draft slot.

There are a number of reasons why a player might be a good candidate to provide favourable value, maybe the most notable of which is that they are coming off a season of poor percentages, either related to their own shooting percentage or their 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (which measures the finishing ability of their linemates). If either of those percentages were well off a skater’s career norms, then there is a pretty good chance that those numbers will bounce back, leading to better goal and point production in the following season.

Another factor to consider when it comes to value is perception. If a player has a high profile and receives lots of publicity, it’s going to be more difficult to sneak that pick past anyone. To that end, once players start showing up on every value picks list, they may already start to lose some of their potential value because they are no longer sitting quite so far under the radar.

Nevertheless, here are some players to consider as value plays on draft day, including some high-end players who might be even better their reputations and working down to some late-round sleeper candidates.

FORWARDS

Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand, Boston – This isn’t to suggest that you won’t have to invest a high pick in the Boston super-pest, but he will be worth it. Over the past three seasons, Marchand has scored 110 goals, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Over the past two seasons, thanks to an increased role on the Boston power play, Marchand has 170 points, which is tied for fourth in the league. He’s a vital cog on the league’s best line, with Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, so don’t be afraid of paying retail prices for Marchand’s production.

Tyler Seguin, Dallas – Over the past five seasons he’s tied for sixth in the league in points (384) and only Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals than Seguin’s 173. He scored a career-high 40 goals last season while playing a career-high 20:55 per game, and while a new coach may not give him all of that ice time (though he might), it’s also entirely possible that Jim Montgomery will have the Stars playing a more up-tempo pace than they did under Ken Hitchcock.

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis – By no means is it guaranteed that O’Reilly will find himself centering super sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, but it would seem to be a good fit since O’Reilly is both a defensive stalwart, a strong playmaker, and he’s coming off a season in which he finished with 61 points, the second highest total of his career, even though he had a career-low on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0%. Playing with an elite talent like Tarasenko could bring out his best.

Sam Reinhart, Buffalo – Even though second overall pick in the 2014 Draft finished with a career-high 50 points last season, Reinhart started the year with just 11 points in his first 38 games and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% for the whole season. If he carries his second half production into a full year, with an improved Sabres team, the 22-year-old’s numbers should keep climbing.

Travis Konecny, Philadelphia – After Christmas, the 21-year-old winger scored 20 goals and 37 points in 45 games, performing at high level down the stretch while skating with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier on Philadelphia’s top line. He also finished second on the team with 2.26 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, scoring 44 of his 47 points at even strength.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota – A power forward possession beast who managed 32 points in an injury-plagued 2017-2018 season, Niederreiter had a career-high 57 points in 2016-2017. Coming off that down season, he should cost less to acquire, but that leads to a potential value gain if he gets back on track.

Alex Galchenyuk

Alex Galchenyuk, Arizona – A fresh start with a team that might offer more opportunity is a good reason to have higher hopes for Galchenyuk, because there is an argument to be made that he was not handled particularly well in Montreal, but it’s also worth noting that any scoring forward who had a 5.1% on-ice shooting percentage last season is likely to see more favourable percentages in the next season.

Jonathan Drouin, Montreal – His first season with the Canadiens didn’t necessarily go as planned, and it’s fair to wonder whether Drouin is going to make it long-term as a centre, but the percentages weren’t on his side either, as he scored on 7.9% of his shots and had a 5.6% on-ice shooting percentage. The third pick in the 2013 Draft had a good finish last season, scoring 13 points in his last 14 games and, given his prominent role on the team, Drouin will have every opportunity to produce offensively.

Pavel Buchnevich, N.Y. Rangers – A new coaching staff and a team committed to rebuilding could present more consistent top-six opportunities for the talented 23-year-old winger, who had a respectable 43 points last season, but managed just one goal in his last 22 games and that could help make him somewhat easier to acquire on draft day.

Ondrej Kase, Anaheim – The 22-year-old winger flashed some potential in 2016-2017 and tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 66 games last season, when he led Ducks regulars in goals, points and primary points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. He has spent quite a bit of time alongside Ryan Getzlaf on the top line, and that makes life easier for any scoring winger.

Alex Tuch, Vegas – James Neal’s departure has opened up a second-line spot for Tuch, who showed a lot of potential as a rookie, and that second-line opening comes with the benefit of a chance to skate alongside veteran playmaking centre Paul Stastny. That’s a good set up for Tuch, who offers a rare combination of size and speed, to build on last season’s production.

Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg – With Paul Stastny leaving, there is a great opportunity for the second-year centre to step into a role on a scoring line. If it turns out that Roslovic is a plug-and-play replacement for Stastny between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, well, that’s the dream scenario that makes it worth grabbing Roslovic and hoping that he is ready to handle that responsibility.

Andre Burakovsky, Washington – Four years into his NHL career, we’re still waiting on a breakout season, but the 23-year-old’s goal and points per 60 numbers are among the best on the Capitals. It’s worth grabbing him late if only to find out what might happen if he plays at least 65 games, something that he’s done once in four years.

Austin Czarnik, Calgary – A 25-year-old who has 17 points in 59 career NHL games is likely to be available for a late-round flier, and Czarnik is worth consideration at that price because he has tallied 155 points in 157 American Hockey League games and joins a Flames team that offers an opportunity to play significant minutes. After Yanni Gourde’s success in Tampa Bay last season, Czarnik is a player with a similar pedigree as a minor-league scorer, looking for his chance to shine in the NHL.

DEFENCE

Brent Burns

Brent Burns, San Jose – You won’t get him cheaply, but the 33-year-old freewheeling blueliner still offers massive value at a relatively early draft slot. Even though he managed 12 goals last season, Burns scored on just 3.6% of his shots, his lowest rate since 2009-2010, and his on-ice shooting percentage (6.2%) was his lowest in the advanced stats era (ie. since 2007-2008). Over the past three seasons, Burns leads all defencemen in goals (68), points (218) and, by a mile, shots on goal (1005).

Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton – He plummeted from a dozen goals and 38 points in 2016-2017 to just five goals and 21 points last season, but Klefbom was limited by a bad shoulder that ultimately ended his season early. A healthy Klefbom remains the best power-play quarterback on the Edmonton blueline and, provided that he’s not hindered by the shoulder issue, Klefbom should be in line for a rebound season.

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa – The 2015 first-round pick was kept under wraps early in his rookie season, but started to play a lot more in the second half of the season and he performed well. As it was, he still finished with 25 points in 63 games, so those numbers could shoot up if he starts playing 20-minutes plus every night for a full season.

Duncan Keith

Duncan Keith, Chicago – To be fair, no one is going to consider Keith a genuine sleeper. Everyone is well aware of a 34-year-old who has won two Norris Trophies and been a No. 1 defenceman on three Stanley Cup winners, but he’s coming off an especially poor year. Part of how those poor results were achieved, though, was through abysmal percentages. He scored two goals on 187 shots (1.1 SH%) and his 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage (5.7%) was a career-low, too. If absolutely nothing else changes and the percentages move back towards his career norms, Keith’s results will be noticeably better.

Kevin Shattenkirk, N.Y. Rangers – A prize free agent signing in the summer of 2017, the veteran blueliner missed nearly half of the season due to injury, but remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the game. Even on a rebuilding Rangers team there will be points to be had with the man advantage.

Samuel Girard, Colorado – The heady, smallish, puck-moving blueliner scored more than half of his points on the power play during his rookie campaign, earning a bigger role as the season progressed, and the 20-year-old should continue his upward career trajectory in his second season.

GOALTENDERS

Braden Holtby, Washington – Last season was clearly the worst of Holtby’s career, and he even lost the starting job going down the stretch and into the playoffs, so of course that was the season in which he backstopped the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. Given his impressive track record, though, it’s still worth investing in Holtby as a star goaltender. With Philipp Grubauer moving on, Holtby’s hold on the No. 1 job should be even more secure.

Antti Raanta

Antti Raanta, Arizona – He doesn’t have the reputation of other starting goaltenders, in part because last season was the first time that he played more than 40 games in a season, and injuries still limited him to 47 appearances. Raanta is also playing behind a Coyotes team that wants to be more competitive, but they haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 and have surpassed 80 points once since then. Even with those factors taken into account, Raanta was outstanding when healthy last year and has a .927 save percentage in 116 games over the past four seasons. The 29-year-old does not have the track record to be considered an elite netminder, but once they’re off the board, Raanta could bring nice value.

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo – The 25-year-old netminder is coming off a strong AHL campaign, during which he posted a .922 save percentage in 44 games, and while veteran Carter Hutton appears to have a leg up in the Sabres’ goaltending competition, Ullmark has potential to emerge as Buffalo’s number one option between the pipes.

Fantasy Hockey: Ranking Goalies by Tier

Peter Harling — Wed, 23 Sep 2015 16:35:35 +0000

For most, trying to predict fantasy goalies is a little like trying to predict where lightning is going to strike. If you are like me, you need all the help you can get. One thing you can do to help better prepare for your fantasy draft is to rank goalies by tiers. Depending on your leagues size, format, and scoring mechanism you can have all different kinds of values associated to players. With goalies, there are a few constants which apply to most leagues and situations that you need to take into consideration.

Skill level of the goalie
Situation: is he the sure-fire staring goalie looking at 50 – 60 starts
Strength of the team: Lousy teams usually equals lousy goalie stats

Below I will rank the top 50 goalies and categorize them into groups. Heading into your draft, you should have an idea of how much value you want to place on a goalie. How soon do you draft one, do you want an elite goalie, are you happy with two good goalies. You can put all your eggs in one basket and use a first round pick on a player like Carey Price. You may think that the league elite goalies fluctuates so much each year, and you would be correct, and therefore you wait until mid-draft and pick a goalie who may have a monster year. Once you have an idea of how your draft strategy, you need to look at ranking the goalies into a tier system. I suggest looking at some of the better fantasy hockey predictors such as the McKeens yearbook, and Dobber hockey and then create your own draft tier list like the one I created below.

Tier I: The Elite

These are the best of the best; they play on Stanley Cup contenders and are the undisputed starter, and are Vezina calibre.

1. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens – He won it all last year, Vezina, Hart, Lindsay, and Jennings.

2. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers – King Henrik is arguably the best goalie on the planet.

3. Jonathan Quick, LA Kings – No contest who is the starter with the two time Cup Champion.

4. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals – New addition to the top five after a breakout year.

5. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning – Big Ben needs to stay healthy, if so he is elite.

Tier II: The very good

Nothing wrong with this group, they are all capable of being elite but have some question.

6. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators – Re-established himself after an injury lost season.

7. M.A. Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins – Always has strong regular season stats and the Pens have beefed up.

8. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins – Rask is solid, but what direction are the Bruins headed?

9. Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks – Crawford struggled at times and temporarily lost the crease in playoffs to Scott Darling. A hiccup or a warning sign?

10. Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders - Was unable to get job done in St. Louis but has looked good on the Island. The Islanders are a team on the rise, can he do for them what he couldn’t do in St. Louis?

Tier III: Good goalies in bad situations

11. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche – The Avs had a huge regression but Varly remained solid.

12. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus – Injuries killed the season last year but Columbus are a team on the rise

13. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers – Roberto is getting older, will the Panthers improve while he can still make a difference?

14. Corey Schneider, New Jersey Devils – Entering his prime but desperately needs some run support.

15. Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers – Flyers may have finally found their starting goalie

16. Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild – This time last year he was a fantasy after thought, then went on to play in over 40 straight games earning a Vezina nomination. Would the real Dubnyk please stand up?

Tier IV: Should be the starting goalie on a good team…should be!

17. Jonas Hiller, Calgary Flames – Rebound season, Flames projected to regress, contract year, a lot of questions with this player.

18. Frederik Andersen, Anaheim Ducks – With the addition of Khudobin and Gibson pushing, Andersen could lose some starts at the first sign of trouble.

19. Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators – Has elite type stats, but can’t stay healthy. Had the crease burgled late in the season.

20. Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks – Jacob Markstrom will push Miller who struggled at times last year.

Tier V: Split starters on good teams

Tandem situations where the team will ride two goalies, ideal for handcuff situations

21. Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings – Lost the starting job in playoffs, but contract says he is the starter

22. Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings – Is younger and arguably better than Howard.

23. Brian Elliott, St. Louis Blues – Like Howard, lost the starting job in the playoffs.

24. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues – Is the gaolie of the future, which could begin immediately.

25. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas Stars – Brutal season, may flourish with less pressure.

26. Antti Niemi, Dallas Stars – Couldn’t cut it as a starter in San Jose, may work well in tandem.

Tier VI: The Unknown

Potentially great goalies, potentially getting their first crack as a number one.

27. Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks – Sharks could have a good season and Jones could see the lions share of the starts.

28. Robin Lehner, Buffalo Sabres – Tim Murray believes in Lehner, he drafted him in Ottawa, gave up a first to bring him to Buffalo, but has injury history.

29. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers – Talbot was excellent spelling Henrik Lundqvist when he was injured behind a strong New York Rangers defence.

Tier VII: Split starters on bad teams

30. Jonathan Bernier, Toronto Maple Leafs – The Leafs badly want him to be the answer in goal.

31. James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs – Clean slate in Toronto with new management, it’s now or never for Optimus Reim.

32. Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets – The Jets are not a bad team, but Pavelec has proven to be very inconsistent

33. Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg Jets – Again, Jets are a good team, but Hutchinson struggled later in the season

34. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes – Ward has been in steady decline, but is in a UFA contract year.

35. Eddie Lack, Carolina Hurricanes – Lack is a player on the rise. In a better situation he would rank higher. His time may come next year, or as soon as now.

Tier VIII: Boom or Bust

These players need a break to reach their full potential, but I’m saying there is a chance.

36. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks – If he were not injured last year, he could have been ranked in the top three tiers

37. Andrew Hammond, Ottawa Senators – Count on Anderson being injured, and when that happens, the Sens will look to Hammond. Was his miraculous run an aberration, or is he the next Tim Thomas?

38. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets – As mentioned above, the Jets are a good team and Pavelec and Hutchinson have underwhelmed. Hellebuyck impressed at the World Championship and could steal the show

39. Scott Darling, Chicago Blackhawks – Darling temporarily won the starting job away from Crawford last year and has a slight chance of doing so again and not letting go.

Tier IX: Rookies

These rookies have lots of potential and should be starters one day, maybe not this year…but maybe.

40. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning – A blood clot will keep him out for the first few months otherwise he could push the split with Bishop.

41. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins – The AHL’s best goalie will be the backup to Fleury this year, all it takes is an injury and Murray will be the starter.

42. Malcolm Subban, Boston Bruins – Was shelled and pulled in his first NHL game last year but is the future starter for the Bruins and could be the backup to Rask this year.

43. Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers – Was dominant in the KHL last year and returns to the NHL after 23 games with the Islanders.

Tier X: The long shots

If you are drafting these guys, they better be your third goalie or you only score one and you have a Tier one goalie.

44. Karri Ramo, Calgary Flames

45. Michael Neuvirth, Philadelphia Flyers

46. Alex Stalock, San Jose Sharks

47. Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver Canucks

48. Ben Scrivens, Edmonton Oilers

49. Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders

50. Jhonas Enroth, LA Kings

2015 NHL Playoffs: Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:17:37 +0000

Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders

The Capitals have a long history of regular season success followed by disappointment in the post season. This year things could be different as the team has the most depth on defence with the additions of Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen in the offseason. The former Penguins insulate Karl Alzner, John Carlson, Mike Green and Nate Schmidt who will protect the crease for Braden Holtby who has emerged as a potential Vezina candidate this. With the addition of Orpik and Niskanen on defense and Coach Barry Trotz, the Caps are playing great defense and their possession game has also improved while not sacrificing much offense, scoring 2.85 goals per game. The offense is led by Captain Alex Ovechkin, who led the league in scoring again winning the Maurice Richard Trophy again with 53 goals. The key to shutting Ovechkin down could be on the Power Play, during a playoff series opposition may key in on individuals more than you can during a regular season and customize the penalty kill. Have one player shadow Ovechkin while the other three defenders play a diamond position in the box and treat it like a four on three. Take away their best weapon and challenge the Capitals to beat you another way. The Caps have depth up front beyond Ovechkin however; Nick Backstrom may be under appreciated while Evgeny Kuznetsov could have a breakout performance. Joel Ward, Curtis Glencross, Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr, and Brooks Laich all have potential John Druce playoff heroics in them who could carry the team through a round or two.

The New York Islander are not exactly hitting the ground running heading into the post season but have some intriguing components, led by John Tavares who is a potential Hart Trophy candidate gives instant credibility to the offense. The offensive depth is not as impressive as Washingtons with Brock Nelson, Kyle Okposo, Ryan Strome and Anders Lee as the key support players, but the Islanders still managed to score 2.99 goals per game. However the fourth line, (known as the best fourth line in hockey) with Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas, and Cal Clutterbuck will see plenty of ice time and raise plenty of havoc giving the Islanders energy, momentum and even a few goals. The defense got a huge shot in the arm with the additions of two cup rings in Johnny Boychuck and Nick Leddy who assume the top pairing pushing down Travis Hamonic, Calvin De Haan, Travis Hickey and Brian Strait into more suitable slots. Perhaps the biggest question for the Islanders is in goal; Jaroslav Halak had an incredible playoff performance back with the Canadiens which seems like a life time ago now. Since then he has been inconsistent in St.Louis and ultimately deemed expendable. His performance in the regular season was good, and the addition of Michal Neuvirth helps but the pressure is on Halak who will make or break any chances the Islanders have.

The Islanders are rather inexperienced in the playoffs and even though they tied the Capitals with 101 regular season points they finished the season with a 4-3-3 record compared to the Capitals 6-3-1 giving up home ice advantage. That could come back to haunt them.

Top Ten Washington Capitals

Alex Ovechkin – If he cannot be contained offensively and on the power play it will be a short series
Nicklas Backstrom – May be one of the most underrated centers since Ron Francis
Braden Holtby – First breakout was in the playoffs, had another breakout this season. Can he raise his game in the post season again?
John Carlson – Carlson may not be in the class of Keith, Doughty and McDonagh yet, but he is trending in that direction
Evgeny Kuznetsov – After a long wait, he arrived from the KHL, there was more waiting in the NHL, but he is beginning to live up to the hype
Marcus Johansson – A versatile forward who consistently scores between 45-55 points
Mike Green – Under Coach Trotz his wild offensive days may be over, but his is still a dangerous offensive threat on the power play
Troy Brouwer – Big winger plays big, scores goals, and won a Cup with the Hawks
Joel Ward – Earned his contract after a monster playoff with Nashville and scores big goals.
Curtis Glencross – Has a history of injury, but can contribute when healthy

Top Ten New York Islanders

John Tavares – Johnny Franchise continues to grow and one day will score 100 points and win the Hart and Art Ross
Kyle Okposo – Had a commanding playoff series against Pittsburgh in 2013 with some highlight reel goals, can he do it again?
Ryan Strome – Hit the 50 point mark but more impressive is his plus-23
Frans Nielsen – Second line centre sees first unit power play time on the point
Anders Lee – The 6^th round pick is like found money and continues to exceed expectations
Johnny Boychuk – Brings stability to the backend, and a Cup ring.
Nick Leddy – Brings offense from the backend, and a Cup ring.
Brock Nelson – Was red hot at the start of the season, but cooled off. Can he get it back?
Josh Bailey - Former ninth overall was considered a bust, but that judgement seems to have been premature
Jaroslav Halak – Inconsistent goaltender needs to rediscover his 2010 magic with Montreal

Friedman’s Five

Daniel Friedman — Fri, 06 Feb 2015 16:20:52 +0000

In a new Friday segment for McKeen’s Hockey, I’ll be going over five topics of particular interest from the week that was. Questions? Comments? Feel free to give me a shout @DFriedmanOnNYI. Without further adieu, here we go:

EVANDER KANE ON THE WAY OUT OF TOWN

Assuming you don’t live in a cave, you’re well aware of the recent events surrounding Winnipeg Jets’ forward Evander Kane. Unfortunately, this is not the first time that Kane’s attitude has come into question, and where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.

I have a hard time believing that Dustin Byfuglien threw his teammate’s clothes into the shower over one incident, and I have a feeling that there’s far more to this than a dress code violation.

As far as GM Kevin Chevaldayoff and the Jets are concerned, this is going to be a very tricky issue to solve. They’ve essentially lost most of the leverage they otherwise would’ve had in any trade negotiations for an up-and-comer like Kane, thanks to the negative publicity that continues to pile on. Even if you take his questionable attitude out of the equation, there are other factors working against him here. His production has gone down in each of the last three seasons and he’s constantly injured.

Kane won’t be a Jet for much longer, whether he’s shipped out by the March 2^nd trade deadline or at the entry draft. I suspect the return in any such deal will be underwhelming.

THE VEZINA CANDIDATE NO ONE’S TALKING ABOUT

We’ve seen some excellent goaltending this season, and the usual suspects (i.e. Carey Price, Pekka Rinne and Henrik Lundqvist, among others) are garnering significant attention.

However, there’s one net-minder we aren’t talking about enough, one who deserves every bit as much consideration for the Vezina Trophy right now. That would be Braden Holtby (yes, that Braden Holtby), the goalie who’s currently ranked no lower than sixth in every major statistical category.

Holtby is sixth in wins (25), second in shutouts (six), and fifth in both goals-against average (2.14) and save percentage (.925). He is just as big a reason for Washington’s success this year as Alex Ovechkin, and boy has he bounced back from what had been a very disappointing 2013-14 campaign.

The Capitals elected not to try and re-sign Jaroslav Halak this past summer, trading his rights to the Islanders and placing their faith in Holtby. He’s rewarded them quite nicely for doing so. He’s been outstanding for them, a performance that has him worthy of Vezina considerations in this writer’s opinion.

WHAT’S HAPPENED TO THE LA KINGS?

I supposed that if you win two Stanley Cups in three years, you deserve to take off the following spring.

Certainly, that’s not how the LA Kings are looking at it, but they’re running out of time to prevent that from happening. This isn’t a championship hangover; we’re well past that point. This is just poor execution. It’s hard to really pinpoint what’s gone wrong in Los Angeles, and you can’t really explain why it is that a team with so much talent can possibly be in this predicament.

One thing we’ve always said about these Kings is that they’re specifically built for playoff success, but they kinda just coast through the regular season and then turn it up a notch once April comes around. It may have worked every time until now, but it was never a recommended course of action. There’s no doubt you’re playing with fire when you embrace that type of approach, and while we’ve seen its merits, we’re now seeing its demerits.

But there’s more to this than just a mentality. From a hockey standpoint, the Kings just haven’t been the same. The defense appears to have taken a step back or two and Jonathan Quick hasn’t had a good year. In the extremely talented Western Conference, even the slightest error can push you out of playoff contention, and that’s what appears to have happened to the Kings. I fully-expect them to turn it around next season, but this one appears to be all but over.

METROPOLITAN DIVISION RACE HEATS UP

I think we knew the Metro would be interesting this season, but I’m not sure anyone could’ve predicted the neck-and-neck battle that has transpired here. Just three points separate the fourth-place Capitals and first-place Islanders (you read that second part correctly), and the exciting part is that Washington and the Rangers only joined in the fun over the last month or so.

Good luck trying to guess who’ll finish atop the division after 82 games, especially now that the two New York teams have lost key players (Henrik Lundqvist, Kyle Okposo) to injuries. There will probably be multiple twists and turns to come.

CAN ANYONE STOP THE BLUES?

This is now the third-consecutive year I’m picking the Blues to win the Cup (third time has to be the charm, right?), and for good reason.

It’s worth pointing out that they’ve gotten better and better in each of the last three seasons, and 2014-15 has been a special one. On Thursday night, they extended their point streak to 13 games, shutting out Buffalo by a 3-0 score. They’re doing it with proficient defense and goaltending, but they’ve also got more firepower this time around.

Vladimir Tarasenko was already a dangerous scorer before this season, but he’s risen to another level. The same can be said for Jaden Schwartz, and newcomer Jori Lehtera has turned out to be an outstanding addition.

They’ll have a tough hill to climb in the playoffs; any road they take will likely have to pass through the Chicago Blackhawks, and that won’t be an easy out. But I think they’re more prepared to get over that hump than before.

Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @DFriedmanOnNYI

NHL trade deadline fantasy review

Peter Harling — Fri, 07 Mar 2014 14:32:51 +0000

The NHL trade deadline is the second most exciting hockey day of the year, second only to the fantasy draft.

Most fantasy leagues have a trade deadline of their own, and the fallout of the NHL trades weighs heavy on what happens in your fantasy trades.

To help make sense of it all let’s look at some of the players who benefit, and some who’s value hurt from the NHL trade deadline

Increasing Value

Marian Gaborik, LA Kings

To start his tenure in LA, Gaborik will play on a line with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. This should give him a boost, as well the Kings anemic offence. Gaborik has slightly struggled to produce offensively in Columbus this season, partially due to injuries. Injuries will always be a concern with Gaborik who is scheduled to be a UFA this summer. It is difficult to gauge what type of contract he can command, but in the range of $6 million is not out of the question. With his age, susceptibility to injuries and uncertainty of his contract, this could be a sell high opportunity for some one looking at Gaborik for a playoff run.

Lee Stempniak, Pittsburgh Penguins

Often players enjoy a “honeymoon period” when they join a new team. The streaky Stempniak personifies this and with the Dupuis injury, he may see time on a line with Sidney Crosby. He went on a tear after joining Phoenix from Toronto and is only 30% owned in Fantrax leagues. He could be a sneaky great waiver or free agent pick up.

Andrej Meszaros, Boston Bruins

Injuries have cost him his top four pairing rankings and the Flyers have given up on him. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli is familiar with Meszaros from their time in Ottawa and he played in Sochi with the Czech team with Zdeno Chara. The pair looked good together and with the injury to Denis Sidenberg the Bruins need a top four option. Meszaros could be it. Or he could be the next Tomas Kaberle. Given Meszaros is only 28 and has managed 17 points in only 38 games I think he is worth the risk.

Ales Hemsky, Ottawa Senators

Hemsky was once considered the future of the Edmonton Oilers. But that was a long time ago it seems and now the Oilers belong to Taylor Hall, RNH and Jordan Eberle. Hemsky is a highly talented player who desperately needed a fresh start on a new team with a top six opportunity. Expect the Sens to try desperately to find some chemistry between Hemsky with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek in an attempt to sneak into the playoffs. If the experiment is successful, the trio could be lightning in a bottle and fantasy hockey gravy.

Ryan Miller, St. Louis Blues

All season long this trade was highly speculated and final came to fruition. Miller had been having a spectacular season with the Sabres, his win stats do not support it but the eye test does not lie. Maybe you can catch a Miller owner sleeping and snag him quick. Now that he is a member of the Blues expect the number of saves to drop, and the wins and shut outs to pile up. It is also reasonable to expect Miller to resign with the Blues as well for keeper leagues.

Jhonas Enroth, Buffalo Sabres

With the trade of Miller (and Halak) the door has never been more open for the starting position in Buffalo. Enroth will battle with Neuvirth for the job. Neuvirth has had chances in Washington and failed to seize the job where as this is Enroths first kick at the can. On a poor Buffalo team this season, he has a GAA of 2.9 and a save % of .911 which is comparable to Millers 2.71 GAA, and .923 save %

Brandon Pirri, Florida Panthers

Former Chicago and current Florida GM Dale Tallon is very familiar with the upside of Brandon Pirri. Pirri was buried behind the depth of the Stanley Cup Champions deep roster, but will be given an opportunity to blossom in Florida. In 29 games ha has only 11 points, but has only played an average of 12:10 minutes per game. Pirri played his first game on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau and he is only 39% owned. Another player worth a pick up if he is available.

Joni Ortio, Calgary Flames

Ortio was not traded at the deadline, but Reto Berra was. With Karri Ramo still injured that makes Ortio the current starting goalie in Calgary. Ortio is only 14% owned this week.

Decreasing in Value

Thomas Vanek, Montreal Canadiens

Vanek had an embarrassing Olympic performance. He is a streaky scorer will not be playing with John Tavares anymore. With a cap hit north of $7 million and heading to free agency, I would not touch Vanek with your ten foot pole.

Martin St. Louis, New York Rangers

St. Louis will still score and provide offense, but expect a slight decline now he is not on the high flying Lightning, and is no longer with Stamkos.

Tim Thomas, Dallas Stars

Thomas was the starting goalie in Florida when healthy. It will be difficult for him to usurp Kari Lehtonen in Dallas and see regular starts. On the bright side, when he does play his stats should be much better as the Stars are a much better team.

Dustin Penner, Washington Capitals

Penner may not respond well to being traded from Anaheim where the team was extremely successful and he was playing on the Getzlaf – Perry line and enjoying individual success. Penner is traditionally a streaky scorer subject to long droughts of indifferent play and motivational issues. This could be project that blows up on the Caps, don’t make the same mistake.

Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

The addition of Jaroslav Halak in Washington ends the rotating three man goalie circus. Halak will be the starting goalie and Holtby will be the backup. The only saving grace for Holtby could be Halak is a UFA this off season, but it looks like the Caps have made a decision on Holtby.

Rene Bourque, Montreal Canadiens

Bourque has struggled this season and his value continues to decline. The addition of Vanek could see Bourque see more time in the press box and fourth line which all but kills his value.