Brady Skjei – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Sat, 04 Oct 2025 19:15:20 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 22: Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi (59) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Colorado Avalanche, held on February 22, 2025, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

After last summer's spend frenzy, the expectation for Nashville was they were going to build upon their first-round playoff exit and go a little deeper into the playoffs. Signing Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei were supposed to make them a tougher team to stop offensively and more difficult to get through defensively. Instead, everything that could’ve gone wrong did and they finished with 68 points, an incredible 31-point departure from the previous year when they had 99 points. At five-on-five, the Predators were middle of the pack when it came to shot attempts and scoring chance quality, but they had the fewest goals in the league at five-on-five with 130 and had second fewest overall with 212. Defensively, they allowed 190 goals at five-on-five (fifth most) and 274 in all situations (sixth most). For Juuse Saros, it was his worst season in the NHL with a .896 save percentage, the first in his career under .900 and his previous career-low was .906 the year before. The Predators also had the worst shooting luck in the league with an 8.82 shooting percentage (they shot 10.07 the previous year). Not being able to score and being unable to prevent others from scoring is how bad seasons come out of nowhere. Now GM Barry Trotz is trying to figure out where to go from here.

What’s Changed?

After splashing the cash last summer, the Predators laid low this time around. They acquired Erik Haula from New Jersey and went big for defensive help acquiring Nicolas Hague from Vegas for Jeremy Lauzon and Colton Sissons. They extended Hague, who was an RFA, with a four-year, $22 million. They further added to their defence by signing Nick Perbix to a two-year, $5.5 million contract. The subtractions they made at the deadline last season help make this a somewhat different team than a year ago, but at the top of the lineup this group is very similar with Filip Fosberg and Roman Josi leading the way with Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, and Luke Evangelista in support.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Predators can get a return to form from goalie Juuse Saros that would go a long way to fixing things up. It’s hard to believe they’ll have the same kind of terrible shooting luck two years in a row which means goals will return naturally, but if Saros struggles again and it falls on Justus Annunen to bail them out, it’s asking a lot. For years, Saros was a Vezina Trophy candidate and with this being an Olympic year, he’s going to want to be in top form to play for Finland. If he fails to meet that standard, we’re talking about the Predators being more of a contender for Gavin McKenna than the postseason. Nashville is thin at forward and needs a lot of role players to get hot to better support Forsberg and company.

What Could Go Wrong?

Another difficult year from Saros will have the Predators looking long and hard at his eight-year, $61.92 million extension that kicks in this season at 30 years old. If Nashville struggles to score again and their veterans can’t get things going, we’re very easily going to be looking at a team that can repeat what they did last season points-wise. If that happens, talk about trading guys like O’Reilly and Marchessault will pick back up again. Even though finishing at the bottom of the standings could lead to drafting McKenna, there’s always the chance the ping pong balls won’t bounce your way either and a long season in Nashville would be tough to see after all the growth the franchise made over the years.

Top Breakout Candidate

Although Nashville could have a few young candidates to make big impressions this season, the one to keep an eye on is Fedor Svechkov. He was Nashville’s first-round pick in 2021, 19th overall, and after spending 2023-2024 in the AHL and part of last season there, he hopped into the Predators lineup and stayed. In 52 games he had eight goals and nine assists and averaged 12:53 time on-ice. After that experience last season, he could be looking at a larger role on the second line this season. If that puts him on a line with more offensively capable players, his numbers will jump.

FORWARDS

Filip Forsberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	38	48	86	1.05

For years, Forsberg was one of those players where you waited for the production to line up with his raw talent because when you watch him, he can do everything. He’s big, shoots the puck like a missile, controls it like a yo-yo when he’s skating through traffic and can create his chances without needing to bulldoze his way to the net or wait for a pass. It’s common for him to be the best player on the ice for both teams. His last season was a departure from the usual peaks and valleys in his career, following up a career season with one riddled by injuries and sub-par production. Wading his way through a dismal year in Nashville, Forsberg kept a high level of play. He took over most of the puck handling duties on his line and most of the offence either went through him or Roman Josi. The result was 31-goal season with Forsberg just missing the point-per-game clip, but far off from the usual valleys he’s had to deal with in his career. The best news for Nashville is that it was his second year in a row playing a full season, which has been very rare for him. The one concern with Forsberg is slow starts. Goal scorers are streaky by nature, but it’s always to an extreme degree with Forsberg, who had only nine goals at the start of January before rattling off 22 in his next 44 games to finish the year strong. There is a higher standard for Forsberg these days and it is good news for Nashville that they’re getting a healthier and more productive version as he enters his 30’s.

Steven Stamkos

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	30	28	58	0.73

In some ways, Stamkos’ first year in Nashville went as most expected. He’s a 35-year-old who had a few seasons riddled by injuries and spotty production before a brilliant three-year run to close his career in Tampa Bay. He isn’t surrounded by the lethal playmaking talent he had with the Lightning now so there was going to be an adjustment period. This is especially true for a player like Stamkos who relies so much on scoring through the one-timer, which requires chemistry, precision and timing from his linemates. This proved to be true in his first year with Nashville. While still finishing at a high rate, Stamkos struggled to create the same quality of chances he did regularly in Tampa, having to find ways to create his own shot and adapt to a revolving door of linemates. He had his moments, especially on the power play, but he faded into the background in most of Nashville’s games, chasing the play, deferring to linemates who couldn’t get the puck back to him and he had one of his worst seasons from a point production standpoint. He adapted in some ways, becoming a nice complementary piece on Nashville’s second line, but he became a piece that fit in with the group rather than one who raised the bar. There’s some hope that his second year can go better, as Nashville isn’t a wasteland for playmaking talent but right now, Stamkos looks like just another piece in a forward corps populated with slow, second line players.

Jonathan Marchessault

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	24	34	58	0.75

Marchessault’s first season outside of the Vegas security blanket was seen as a disappointment. It might be somewhat unfair because his production last year was more in line with his career totals as a solid middle six player rather than the 42-goal scorer he entered free agency as. How Marchessault got to that point total clouds some of that perspective. Outside of December where he exploded for 10 goals in 13 games, Marchessault struggled to score most of the season and some of the warning signs in Vegas came home to roost. He has become less of a volume shooter and one who relies more on finishing now and he is a different type of complementary player now than he used to be. He no longer has the wheels to get to every puck and zoom past defenders like he used to and has to rely more on his finesse rather than trying to get everything at the net. The silver lining for the Preds is he showed some versatility in the middle of the season and became a weapon on their power play, but as a setup guy. They used him in a variety of shooting positions and Marchessault still showed the good hands and offensive instincts that made him such a lethal player in Vegas for years. While he still got on the scoresheet, the disappointment with Marchessault was that he didn’t exactly provide much of an impact for the Preds, adding another solid middle six player to a roster that needed more.

Ryan O’Reilly

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	34	54	0.68

To the naked eye, you might notice the things Ryan O’Reilly can’t do anymore. You might see the slow skating stride and the lack of puck touches and think that he’s on the decline, but there is always more under the surface with him. He makes up for not being able to carry the mail out of the defensive zone by always being in the right place, or simply winning pucks down low, to make life easier for his defencemen. As a former Selke winner, O’Reilly has mastered the art of being an effective player with minimal puck touches and he still has the tank to play the top-line minutes. O’Reilly should continue to be an important piece in the Preds retool, as his ability to be a rink general in all three zones will help some of their young forwards get acclimated to the NHL game. He got a preview of this towards the end of last season, centering youngster Luke Evangelista instead of Filip Forsberg. Making the most out of your limited puck touches is what the game is about when you get slower and O’Reilly has the tools to still do that. He’s deceptively good at scoring from close range, using that low center of gravity to get more of a “swooping” one-timer that fools goalies (enroute to another 20+ goal season) and he is still one of the best in the league on his backhand, getting the puck from the wall to the middle regularly. The issue then becomes finding a replacement as O’Reilly’s production is more of a 2C and Nashville is going to continue to play him heavy minutes until they find someone else who can take the burden off their workhorse.

Michael Bunting

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	18	18	36	0.48

Unable to stick with Carolina and Pittsburgh, the former Calder Trophy finalist could be on the trade market again this year. He is a complementary piece that brings a lot of what playoff teams are looking for, being willing to get to the front of the net and act as the third wheel on a line with elite talent. He made a living doing this alongside Toronto’s Core Four and had brief success as Evgeni Malkin’s wingman after the 2024 trade deadline. His first full season in Pittsburgh didn’t go as well. He was on pace for 41 points before being dealt to Nashville where he seemingly had as many linemates as he did games played (18). Bunting didn’t get to establish much chemistry with the Preds core, but he produced well relative to his ice-time at 2.98 points per 60 minutes. Bunting is at his best when he’s being a nuisance. He spins off defenders well to get inside positioning and has the keen sense to find teammates for tap-in chances in front of the net. Away from elite linemates, Bunting is skilled enough with the puck to make the one-touch passing plays to help in transition even if he’s not leading the charge. His production just might take a hit because he gets most of his points from close range when he can set up shop in front of the net. He is an interesting piece in what looks like a do-over year for Nashville.

Luke Evangelista

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	18	33	51	0.64

Entering the year as somewhat of a breakout pick, Evangelista’s season can be viewed as a disappointment. Some of it was out of his control, as he was stuck on the third line to start the year with Marchessault and Stamkos entering the fold. Still, a sheltered third line role alongside a fellow young skilled player in Tommy Novak wasn’t the worst setup for him. Like the rest of Nashville, he stumbled out of the gate. If he puts this tough year behind him, Evangelista has a lot to offer. He was one of the few Preds forwards effective in the transition game, leading the team in five-on-five shots off the rush and he second on the team in zone entries leading to scoring chances. He is at his best when the puck is moving north, as he’s a shifty player who can get up the ice quickly and he’s very good at reading off his teammates to get himself open. He also does well in limited space, getting the puck through traffic. Learning how to use his linemates better is his next step. Playmaking is his calling card, and he was more of a volume shooter last year, which could be the result of poor line chemistry, but it played away from his strengths. Nashville still gave him a run on the top line to finish the year, and he rewarded them with a decent seven points in 10 games. His quick-strike ability makes him welcome on any line, so he could be a dark horse pick for a rebound season.

Erik Haula

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	14	16	30	0.40

The common theme with Erik Haula is nobody is sure what the right role for him is. He is probably your ideal third line player, but he has been bounced all over the map in his career from centering the top line to playing on the wing next to star players, manning the net-front on top power play units or being relied heavily in a secondary scoring role. It’s why teams are always interested in signing him but also why teams have moved on from him, this being his second go-around in Nashville. There are some traits that make Haula a good fit to play alongside skilled wingers, as he’s willing to go to the dirty areas and fight for positioning in front of the net. He does well when the game slows down or when he can make a quick one-touch play but struggles when the pace picks up. He has a heavy shot but doesn’t control the puck well when moving in space and it’s resulted in Haula being a stop-gap player in the top six when needed rather than someone who can stick full-time. Last year was one of his toughest seasons, which included a stretch from December into February where he didn’t score a goal. Currently occupying the vacant 3C spot in Nashville, he is properly slotted on the depth chart but might face some pressure from some of the Preds younger forwards to keep that spot.

Fyodor Svechkov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	16	26	42	0.51

Perhaps the one bright spot in a dreary season for the Predators, although the point totals might not tell you that. Svechkov didn’t look out of place after the Preds called him up, immediately taking a center spot and doing an excellent job with stripping pucks and doing small things to kill plays down low. He didn’t get on the scoresheet much but when he did, it was usually a highlight reel type of play, whether it was a great backhand pass through traffic or a bullet of a one-timer. He was usually one of Nashville’s standout players. Part of that is from how unimpressive the rest of the roster was, but the rookie played beyond his years in adapting to the NHL game. The heavy shot and his willingness to get to every puck in the offensive zone made him jump off the page if you were watching the odd Nashville game. Carving out a role outside of the fourth line will be the challenge for him. He can fill the defensive void that Colton Sissons left, but getting better offensive minutes with power play time shouldn’t be out of the question.

Michael McCarron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	7	11	18	0.24

You never know when a minor trade can lead to a second chance in your NHL career, but that’s what happened with Michael McCarron. A former first round pick of Montreal, the towering forward was drafted in the first round during the era where teams were looking for the next power forward. McCarron didn’t quite pan out that way for the Canadiens and he was traded to Nashville in early 2020. Five years later, McCarron is still a regular on the Predators and last year was a career high for him in terms of ice time per game. It was also a career worst in terms of point production, but offence is typically secondary when it comes to him. He’s mainly out there for physical play and establishing a presence on the checking line. Nashville typically likes to fill out their fourth line with players like this and there was a void to fill the last couple of years with Tanner Jeannot and Yakov Trenin gone. McCarron and Cole Smith have done that for Nashville and they play more than your typical fourth line too. McCarron uses his frame well to be an effective forechecker and a guy who can win pucks in the defensive zone, but his offensive game is very one-dimensional with most of his goals coming from grabbing loose pucks around the net. You see flashes of the first-round skill there, but the fourth line is likely where his NHL niche is.

DEFENCE

Roman Josi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	16	46	62	0.82

A concussion ended Roman Josi’s season early, but he is expected to be ready for training camp despite the scary news of him being diagnosed with Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome. Every update regarding his condition and progression this off-season has been positive, which is great news as the future Hall of Famer should reach the 1000 game mark this year. It was only a few years ago where Josi was the ultimate “rover” defenceman in the league, always up in the play joining the rush and roaming all around the offensive zone like a dragonfly. Since then, we’ve seen more high-level defencemen come into the league playing a similar style and Josi doesn’t seem like as much of a unicorn anymore. Still, the Preds rely on him for everything and while last year wasn’t one of his more productive years, most of it was from the forwards struggling to finish. Last year was also somewhat of an adjustment for Josi, as he lost a few of his safety valves in Mattias Ekholm, Alex Carrier and Dante Fabbro, leaving him to be the main guy retrieving pucks out of the defensive zone again. This meant he took more hits, and he couldn’t join the rush or have the same level of energy in the offensive zone as he did when someone else was doing the grunt work for him. It’s a role he can play, but his best offensive seasons have been alongside a designated “retrieval player.” We will see if Nic Hague or Nick Perbix takes on that spot.

Brady Skjei

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	22	30	0.37

The Preds were hoping to get their Ekholm replacement in Brady Skjei and in some ways, they got it. The blue-liner scored double-digit goals for the third time in his career and gave the Preds another mobile defenceman who could join the rush and be a complementary piece to the forwards. Skjei’s an aggressive player by nature and the exodus of veteran blue liner put Skjei in somewhat of an awkward spot as the safety valve alongside Nick Blankenburg, a smaller puck-moving defenceman who ended up a regular in Nashville’s top four by the end of the year. This put Skjei as the last man back for a lot of rushes against and this is usually a feast-or-famine situation for him because he likes to defend with his hands and his body rather than his stick, so he gets beat just as often as he breaks the play up. Skjei does best when he has one read to worry about and the chaotic structure in Nashville put a lot on his plate, as he would often be left covering two or three players or caught on an island whenever he got to a loose puck. The injury to Roman Josi also compounded this, making Skjei Nashville’s top defenceman by default while they were testing out some younger players from Milwaukee. He was still able to do his thing offensively and had stretches where he was a steady presence on Nashville’s blue line, the Preds are just hoping for more stability out of him and Skjei is probably thinking the same.

Nicolas Hague

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	4	10	14	0.19

While trading longtime defensive stalwart Colton Sissons to Vegas for towering defenceman Nicolas Hague wasn’t a shocking move, the subsequent four-year, $22 million contract left a lot hockey fans scratching their heads. Teams adding bigger defencemen was a theme this off-season and the Preds had one of the smaller blue-lines in the league so it’s understandable why they would target a player like Hague. The fit on the roster is the question, because Hague can be a great depth defenceman on a contending team. On a team finding their way like Nashville, it’s tough to see if they can cover up his weaknesses and play to his strengths as well as Vegas did. He’s good at using his long reach to kill plays off the rush and stopping cycles in transition, but he needs a lot of help with advancing the play after that. He formed an excellent third pair alongside Zach Whitecloud in Vegas’ Cup run three years ago, but they also had the forwards who could scoop up the loose pucks and turn the shot blocks into offence the other way instead of prolonged shifts. Can the Preds employ something like this with Hague on their roster? He could feasibly take some heat off Josi by being the guy eating the hits and retrieving pucks, but a strategy like this is always easier to talk about than to take into action.

Nick Perbix

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	6	16	22	0.27

The plight of the third-pair defenceman looking to climb the roster ladder is always a tricky one. You could have a guy look like a star in the making playing 14-15 minutes a night only for him to look like a different player once the minutes get higher and matchups get tougher. Perbix is in a good position to prove himself on a Nashville blue line looking for some stability on the right side. He was a great fit behind Tampa Bay’s more skilled players, as he’s an excellent puck-mover with good offensive instincts and can act as the fourth forward on the rush when he needs to. They gave him brief stints of playing higher in the lineup, supplementing Victor Hedman on the top pair and playing alongside Sergachev in his rookie season. He also fits the mold of what Nashville typically looks for in their defencemen as a mobile player who acts as a complement to the forwards, and he also brings more size than some of their in-house options on the right side. The issue with Perbix is he is prone to the odd turnover and defending one-on-one plays. He uses his stick frequently and tries to skate guys into a corner rather than engage them physically, which isn’t how some coaches want their defencemen to play. Regardless, he’s an intriguing option for the Preds as they continue to rebuild their blue-line. Possibly the biggest low-risk/high-reward signing of the off-season if he can carve out time on the power play or top pair.

GOAL

Juuse Saros

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
60	26	24	8	4	.905	2.84

Just a few seasons ago, the Nashville Predators boasted one of the NHL's most enviable tandems in net. But while they're still rolling out an all-Finnish tandem - at least, presumably - to start next season, things are looking far more bleak in the Music City at the moment.

Juuse Saros, one of the most efficient and economical movers in the NHL, is finally starting to show the wear and tear one would expect from the number of starts he's shouldered behind an aging team the last handful of seasons. He put up one of his worst statistical seasons since hitting the NHL, and not by an insignificant margin. His tandem partner, fellow Finn Justus Annunen, somehow fared even worse; whether he's struggling to reclaim his game after a tough stint in Colorado or simply failing to live up to his draft year expectations, Annunen's form looked timid, and his reads looked uncertain as he tried to find his footing and help stem the bleeding for Nashville. It felt all the more baffling when looking at former first round pick Yaroslav Askarov, who was mysteriously dealt to the San Jose Sharks at the eleventh hour last off-season, and who managed to outperform both Saros *and* Annunen on the clearly-also-rebuilding San Jose roster. Perhaps the most baffling of all, though, is that the Predators didn't bring in anyone else to help; outside of Matt Murray (the other one) and Magnus Chrona, there's little in the pipeline to help Saros should Annunen continue to flounder. The entire situation plays like a team waiting for a chance to hard reset and change the guard - but with another seven years left on Saros' contract, that's hardly the case. Hopefully, Saros and Annunen were able to utilize the offseason to work together and shake off their troubling years.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Examining offseason moves – Oilers thriving ex-RFA’s versus UFA signings – Teams with favourable schedules

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 04 Jan 2025 16:15:29 +0000

DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 14: St Louis Blue defenseman Philip Broberg skates with the puck down the ice during an NHL game between the St Louis Blues and the Dallas Stars on December 14, 2024, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire)

Going into 2024-25, it looked like the Oilers had a great summer. Sure, they lost restricted free agents Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to St. Louis, but only because the Blues overpaid for them. Meanwhile, Edmonton was crafty, snagging Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson at bargain bin prices, while also re-signing Adam Henrique to a reasonable contract. The goaltending was still in a risky state given the reliance on the streaky Stuart Skinner and the defense looked thin, but up front, Edmonton seemed deeper than it had ever been in the Connor McDavid-era.

Reality has played out differently. Edmonton has a 23-12-3 record, so they don’t have much to complain about on that front. However, Skinner hasn’t been the bargain that they thought. Instead, the six-time 30-plus goal scorer has just six markers and 13 points through 37 appearances. He’s been so underwhelming that he’s been largely relegated to the fourth line and was even a healthy scratch Sunday.

Arvidsson hasn’t been much help either. Granted, injuries have been part of the issue, but even when healthy, he’s underwhelmed with four goals and nine points through 23 outings. Meanwhile, Henrique has three goals and 10 points in 38 games after finishing the 2023-24 regular season with 51 points.

With the benefit of hindsight, Edmonton should have prioritized its restricted free agents. Broberg has three goals and 14 points in 27 outings while managing a top four role. Holloway has looked even better, collecting 14 goals and 27 points in 40 appearances.

As for Skinner and Arvidsson being bargains while Broberg and Holloway were overpaid, the former duo costs $7 million combined for 2024-25 while the latter comes in at roughly $6.9. Oops.

To be fair, this isn’t what many would have predicted going into the campaign, and there’s still time for Skinner and Arvidsson to make their marks, especially come the playoffs. However, it does highlight how plans can go awry, and with nearly half the campaign now in the books, this seems like a good time to take stock of how teams did in the offseason.

That’ll be the theme of this week’s article: For every team I highlight below, I’m going focus on the players who were brought in over the summer and reevaluate whether it’s worked out.

Carolina Hurricanes (Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TOR, Fri vs VAN, Sun vs ANA)

Carolina has been middling recently, posting a 7-8-1 record over its past 16 games, though the Hurricanes are still 23-13-2 overall thanks to their commanding start. Next week is packed for Carolina and primarily at home, though the opponents will be difficult. The Hurricanes will play in Tampa Bay on Tuesday before hosting Toronto, Vancouver and Anaheim on Thursday, Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Even after factoring in Carolina’s recent underwhelming play, the Hurricanes are still well on their way to making the playoffs for the seventh straight campaign despite significant turnover. They lost two top-four defensemen -- Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce -- and top-six forward Teuvo Teravainen. Jake Guentzel also parted ways with Carolina, but he was a midseason rental, so he was less ingrained into the team.

Carolina led the league in xGA/60 in 2023-24 (2.65), but the team has dipped to 11th (2.90) this year. That’s not bad, but it does suggest that the losses of Skjei and Pesce have been felt.

Carolina did ink Shayne Gostisbehere to a three-year, $9.6 million contract over the summer, but the 31-year-old defenseman was brought in as more of a power-play specialist than a two-way option. He has served well in that role, supplying six goals and 27 points through 35 appearances, but unfortunately, he’s out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.

Interestingly, Brent Burns appears to be staying on the second power-play unit despite Gostisbehere’s injury. Burns is hot with two goals and four points over his past four appearances, but he has just one point with the man advantage this year, and unless he moves up to the top power-play grouping, it’s hard to see him having a strong second half.

Ty Smith seems to have gotten the special-teams assignment instead of Burns. The 24-year-old has averaged just 14:02 of ice time in Carolina’s three games without Gostisbehere, but 4:05 per contest has come with the man advantage. Smith has a goal (provided on the power play) in those three appearances after supplying three goals and 10 points in 13 outings with AHL Chicago. He’s worth a short-term pickup.

Moving back to the Hurricanes’ summer acquisitions, Carolina also inked Jack Roslovic to a one-year, $2.8 million deal. He’s worked out well in Carolina, collecting 17 goals and 25 points through 38 outings, which puts the 27-year-old on track to surpass his career high of 45 points. I’m not confident he’ll get there, though. His 22.4 shooting percentage doesn’t look sustainable and his role with the team hasn’t been consistent, resulting in him averaging a modest 14:00, including 1:15 on the power play. It’s hard to trust him unless he starts getting bigger minutes consistently, so there’s a risk of him slowing meaningfully in the second half.

Detroit Red Wings (Tue vs OTT, Fri vs CHI, Sun vs SEA)

The Red Wings are showing some life under new bench boss Todd McLellan, winning each of their past three games. Still, they have a lot of ground to make up given their 16-18-4 record. Fortunately, their upcoming competition is favorable -- they'll spend next week at home, hosting Ottawa on Tuesday, Chicago on Friday and Seattle on Sunday.

Detroit lost Gostisbehere and veteran forward David Perron over the summer, which threatened to hurt the team’s scoring, but the Red Wings hoped to mitigate that by bringing in Vladimir Tarasenko on a two-year, $9.5 million contract. Tarasenko isn’t the same player he was when he provided over 30 goals on six occasions from 2014-15 through 2021-22, but he still figured to be a valuable middle-six option after providing 23 goals and 55 points over 76 outings between Ottawa and Florida in 2023-24.

It hasn’t worked out like that, though. Tarasenko has just four goals and 14 points through 37 appearances and isn’t giving Red Wings fans much hope that he’ll have a strong second half. The veteran has no goals and three assists across his past 14 games. While Detroit has won its last three games by scoring at least four goals in each contest, Tarasenko has managed a single shot on net over that stretch.

Detroit re-signed Patrick Kane to a one-year, $4 million deal over the summer. Initially, Kane’s story this season looked a lot like Tarasenko -- Kane had just three goals and 10 points over his first 24 appearances of 2024-25 -- but he’s hit his stride, providing five goals and nine points across his past nine outings.

Detroit ranks 25th in goals per game with 2.68, which is a collapse compared to the Red Wings’ 3.35 last campaign. That’s in large part due to a decline in secondary scoring. Detroit had eight players with at least 15 goals. Just five are scoring at a pace to reach that mark this campaign. If Tarasenko could get going, that would certainly help, but it would be wrong to put the blame solely on him when the team as a whole has declined that much.

Minnesota Wild (Tue vs STL, Thu vs COL, Sat @ SJS, Sun @VGK)

The Wild have won four of their past five games, bringing their record up to 24-11-4 this campaign. They’ll look to continue the good times next week, starting with a home game against the Blues on Tuesday. After that, the Wild will host Colorado on Thursday before hitting the road for contests in San Jose on Saturday and Vegas on Sunday.

In contrast to their dominance this season, the Wild missed the playoffs in 2023-24 with a 39-34-9 record, so you’d think they had a successful summer, but this is largely the same team that fell short last campaign. The big difference has been Filip Gustavsson. He struggled in 2023-24 with a 20-18-4 record, 3.06 GAA and .899 save percentage but has rebounded this time, posting a 17-6-3 record, 2.28 GAA and .924 save percentage across 26 starts.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gustavsson continue his dominance through the second half of the campaign. While it’s in contrast to last season, he has demonstrated this level of success before -- he was 22-9-7 with a 2.10 GAA and a .931 save percentage in 39 outings in 2022-23 -- so this isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Marco Rossi has also taken a step up. The 23-year-old finished 2023-24 with 21 goals and 40 points and is well on his way to shattering those totals this season, collecting 15 goals and 33 points through 39 outings so far. For the second straight campaign, Rossi has the distinction of getting plenty of ice time with Kirill Kaprizov, but the duo seems to be meshing better this year. Kaprizov showed up on the scoresheet for 16 of Rossi’s 40 points last season but has already featured on 21 of Rossi’s 33 points in 2024-25.

While Minnesota didn’t make any significant additions last summer, it is worth noting that the Wild signed Brock Faber to an eight-year, $68 million contract extension back in July. Faber was one of the few positives for the Wild in 2023-24, supplying eight goals, 47 points, 65 hits and 150 blocks in 82 appearances as a rookie. Locking him up long-term was a bit of a risk given his small sample size, but it’s looking like it was a great call. He has five goals, 20 points, 15 hits and 51 blocks through 39 outings in 2024-25.

Faber didn’t look ideal analytically last campaign with a relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of minus-2.8/minus-3.5, which suggests that the team performed worse from a puck possession perspective when he was on the ice, but the 22-year-old has shown some growth in that regard as a sophomore, posting a minus-1.7/minus-2.9 relative 5v5 CF%/FF%.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ DET, Thu @ BUF, Sat @ PIT, Sun vs DAL)

Minnesota is enjoying a great campaign after a rough one, but the Senators are still floundering in mediocrity. Ottawa finished 37-41-4 in 2023-24, missing the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. The Senators are a more respectable, but still not great 19-17-2 this year.

Ottawa does have a shot at ending its postseason drought, but every point will be critical. Next week, the Senators will play in Detroit on Tuesday, host the Sabres on Thursday, play in Pittsburgh on Saturday and then head back home to face the Stars on Sunday.

There was some reason for cautious optimism going into this campaign. Joonas Korpisalo had been a big problem for the Senators in 2023-24, posting a 21-26-4 record, 3.27 GAA and .890 save percentage in 55 outings while finishing minus-16.1 in terms of goals saved above expected. To exchange him with Linus Ullmark in a trade with Boston over the summer seemed like a huge win, and it has been.

Ullmark did initially struggle in Ottawa and is presently dealing with a back injury, but he’s still been strong overall with a 12-7-2 record, 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage across 23 games with the Senators. Unfortunately, Ottawa’s holdover goaltender, Anton Forsberg, has continued to struggle with a 3.04 GAA and an .885 save percentage in 12 outings, so Ottawa has to hope that Ullmark returns soon.

Even when he is playing, though, Ottawa is still limited by its offense, ranking 20th in goals per game with 2.95. Trading offensive defenseman Jakob Chychrun to Washington didn’t help. The Senators did receive Nick Jensen in the trade, but Jensen is more of a defensive option, contributing two goals, 13 points, 37 hits and 44 blocks in 38 contests with Ottawa this campaign.

The Senators also attempted to boost its secondary scoring by inking David Perron to a two-year, $8 million contract. Perron had recorded at least 36 points in each of his past eight campaigns, so he seemed like a reasonable bet, but the 36-year-old has been no help. Part of that is due to injuries, but even in the nine games he’s logged with Ottawa, Perron has no points.

To make matters worse, Claude Giroux is showing his age, collecting nine goals and 24 points through 38 appearances in 2024-25, putting the 36-year-old on pace to finish well below his totals of 79 and 64 points in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively.

If Ottawa is to miss the playoffs this year, a lack of scoring will likely be the reason.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Tue vs CBJ, Thu vs EDM, Sat vs OTT, Sun vs TBL)

Pittsburgh was aggressive in the summer of 2023, bringing offensive defenseman Erik Karlsson into the fold, but that proved to be not enough for the 2023-24 Penguins, who missed the playoffs due to a 38-32-12 record. The Penguins didn’t make as big a splash this summer, and the results remain mixed with the Penguins sitting at 17-17-6. They are in the mix for a playoff spot, so their upcoming homestand will be important -- Pittsburgh will host Columbus on Tuesday, Edmonton on Thursday, Ottawa on Saturday and Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Goaltending was a weakness for Pittsburgh in 2023-24, but the Penguins didn’t change its duo, so Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry are paired together for the second straight campaign. The results have been bad, Pittsburgh ranks last in goals allowed per game (3.63), though the defense in front of them is at least partially to blame given the team’s xGA/60 of 3.34, which ranks 29th in the NHL.

At least Rickard Rakell is having a good year. He dropped from 60 points in 2022-23 to just 37 last year, but he’s bounced back to 18 goals and 32 points through 40 appearances this campaign. One factor in that is likely the loss of Jake Guentzel, who the Penguins traded during 2023-24 to avoid potentially losing for nothing as an unrestricted free agent. With Guentzel gone, Rakell has taken his old spot on the top line alongside Sidney Crosby, and that seems to have benefited Rakell quite a bit.

Of course, that’s only because Crosby is defying Father Time with 11 goals and 42 points through 40 games at the age of 37. Malkin, 38, is showing his age more, but he’s still more than holding his own with eight goals and 32 points across 40 outings.

Without much cap space, the Penguins did attempt to supplement its offense on a budget by signing Anthony Beauvillier (one-year, $1.25 million) and Blake Lizotte (two-year, $3.7 million), which has worked out okay. Beauvillier has nine goals and 12 points through 39 appearances while Lizotte has eight goals and 12 points in 24 outings. They add a bit of skill to the bottom six, which is not nothing, but it’s not a lot.

Seattle Kraken (Mon vs NJD, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ BUF, Sun @DET)

Seattle has been a mixed bag this campaign with a 17-19-3 record, but the Kraken have a somewhat favorable schedule next week. They’ll start by hosting the Devils and then go on the road to play in Columbus on Thursday, in Buffalo on Saturday and in Detroit on Sunday. New Jersey is the only adversary in that batch currently occupying a playoff position.

Although Seattle is still a fairly new franchise, there was some significant turnover during the summer. The biggest change came behind the bench rather than on the ice: Dave Hakstol was replaced by Dan Bylsma as the new bench boss. Under Bylsma, Seattle’s scoring has ticked up somewhat, going from 2.61 goals per game in 2023-24 to 2.90 this campaign, but that’s been undermined by the goals allowed per game increasing to 3.10 compared to 2.83 last year.

Jaden Schwartz has been one of the bigger winners under Bylsma. After collecting 13 goals and 30 points in 62 appearances while averaging 16:22 of ice time last season, Schwartz already has 12 goals and 25 points in 39 games in 2024-25, and he’s seen his playing time tick up to 17:41.

Bylsma has also been making good use of newcomer Chandler Stephenson. Like the coach, Stephenson was an offseason addition, signing a seven-year, $43.75 million deal. That’s a significant commitment to the 30-year-old, but so far, he’s fulfilled his top six duties about as well as expected, supplying four goals and 24 points through 38 appearances. He also has 12 power-play assists, quadrupling that of any other Seattle player.

Brandon Montour was Seattle’s other major free-agent splash, inking a seven-year contract worth one dollar shy of $50 million. Montour missed out on that buck because he was limited to 33 points in 66 regular-season outings with Florida in 2023-24 after setting a career high with 73 points in 2022-23, but he’s done well in his new environment, supplying eight goals and 22 points across 38 outings.

He has gone through something of a cold patch recently with three points (one goal) over his last 10 contests, but it’s not to the point yet where I’m too worried. Even in his amazing 2022-23 campaign, you can find an example of a quiet stretch from Feb. 9-28 in which he had four assists in nine appearances. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that this season will parallel 2022-23, merely stating that slower stretches happen, and the 30-year-old should start picking up the pace again before too long.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs NYR, Sun vs MIN)

While Seattle hasn’t had much playoff success yet, the NHL’s other young franchise, Vegas, has already made the playoffs six times and won the Cup in 2023. The Golden Knights had a down year in 2023-24, posting a 45-29-8 record followed by a first-round exit, but they’re back in business this campaign at 26-9-3. The Golden Knights will start next week with a road match against the rebuilding Sharks before hosting two struggling teams in the Islanders on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday. Finally, Vegas will be up against a tough contender when they play at home against Minnesota on Sunday.

The Golden Knights more than any other franchise in the NHL is known for making bold trades and constantly having to maneuver to stay under the salary cap. The ceiling forced the Golden Knights to watch forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson walk as free agents over the summer. Vegas also traded Logan Thompson to Washington and Paul Cotter to New Jersey.

With those losses, how have the Golden Knights done so well? For starters, Vegas has an economical replacement for Thompson in Ilya Samsonov, who inked a one-year, $1.8 million deal with the Golden Knights. The 27-year-old Samsonov has been a nice backup in Vegas, providing a 10-3-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .907 save percentage in 14 outings. To some extent, he’s even outperformed starter Adin Hill, who is 16-6-2 with a 2.65 GAA and a .902 save percentage through 24 appearances.

You might look at those solid GAAs and middling save percentages and conclude that Vegas’ secret sauce is the defense in front of its netminders, but that’s not entirely the case. In terms of shots allowed per game, Vegas has been relatively good, ranking 12th with 27.9, but the team is also tied for 21st in xGA/60 (3.10) because the Golden Knights tend to give up a ton of high-danger shots, tying for eighth in that category with 142.

As a result, Vegas’ goaltenders don’t necessarily need to work a ton, but they do need to be at the top of their game, and they’ve done just that. Hill has a goals saved above expected of 8.4 and Samsonov is at 6.1, putting them in 14th and 18th, respectively, among all goaltenders, per Moneypuck.

Vegas has also received good value out of Tanner Pearson and Victor Olofsson, who each inked one-year contracts and combine for less than $2 million in cap space. Pearson has eight goals and 16 points through 38 outings, providing some nice scoring depth in a bottom-six capacity. Meanwhile, Olofsson did miss 20 straight games from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 because of a lower-body injury, but he’s been a great middle-six option when healthy, contributing eight goals and 13 points through 18 appearances.

Health in general has really been the key, though. In 2023-24, Vegas finished with just three players who logged the full 82 games while Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo were among those who endured significant absences. Vegas hasn’t been the poster child for health this year, but the situation hasn’t been nearly as bad. That’s helped Eichel especially, who leads the team with 50 points (10 goals) through 38 appearances in 2024-25.

Vegas also made midseason trades during 2023-24 that are paying off now. This is the team’s first full season with defenseman Noah Hanifin, who has six goals and 20 points in 38 outings while serving in a top-four capacity, and forward Tomas Hertl, who has 10 goals and 25 points in 38 games. The result is Vegas is a deep team both up front and on the blue line, even after watching some notable players go over the summer.

Washington Capitals (Mon @ BUF, Wed vs VAN, Fri vs MTL, Sat @ NSH)

The Capitals barely made the playoffs in 2023-24, finishing the regular season with a 40-31-11 record before being swept in the first round. They look very different this year, though, as demonstrated by their 25-10-3 record. Washington will start next week by playing in Buffalo on Monday before returning home to host the Canucks on Wednesday and the Canadiens on Friday. They’ll wrap things up with a game in Nashville on Saturday.

While some of the teams above have made major strides this campaign despite minimal changes over the summer, that doesn’t describe the Capitals. Washington was aggressive in addition pieces, acquiring Jakob Chychrun from Ottawa, Pierre-Luc Dubois from LA and Logan Thompson from Vegas in trades. Washington also made a big splash by signing Matt Roy to a six-year, $34.5 million contract.

Those additions have paid off superbly for Washington. Darcy Kuemper left plenty to be desired with the Capitals last season, posting a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 starts, but Washington was able to part with him in the Dubois trade, and Thompson has been so much better, recording a 15-2-2 record, 2.30 GAA and .918 save percentage across 19 appearances this season. That upgrade in goaltending has been a critical factor in Washington’s success, especially because it has gone a long way toward counteracting the decline of Charlie Lindgren, who has a 10-8-1 record, 2.70 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 outings in 2024-25, down from 25-16-7 with a 2.67 GAA and .911 save percentage in 50 appearances last year.

The Capitals were able to snag Dubois from LA for the low cost of Kuemper because the 26-year-old Dubois comes with an $8.5 million cap hit through 2030-31, but he had an underwhelming 16 goals, 40 points and 70 PIM in 82 regular-season outings with the Kings last season. LA had a logjam up the middle, though, contributing to Dubois averaging just 15:42 in 2024-25. By contrast, Washington had a clear second-line opening for him, which he has settled into nicely, providing five goals, 29 points and 22 PIM in 38 games. You’d still like more from a player with his contract, but there’s no question that he’s added to the team’s scoring depth.

If Dubois has worked out with an asterisk because of his price point, then Chychrun has been a clearer win. He is on the final campaign of his contract, but his $4.6 million cap hit is superb value for the 26-year-old defenseman, who has 11 goals and 25 points this campaign. Washington already had John Carlson has a high-end offensive option on the blue line, and now Chychrun is providing Washington with another big weapon to either send out with Carlson or spread out across the top two pairings.

When it comes to the signings, Matt Roy was the major splash. The defenseman has a goal, eight points, 63 hits and 45 blocks in 28 appearances while averaging 19:24 of ice time. He’s never been a major offensive threat, but Washington already has that role well covered with Chychrun and Carlson. Roy is there to help in Washington’s end, which is why 55.4 percent of his 5v5 zone starts have been defensive.

All that has played a role in the Capitals’ success, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Alex Ovechkin’s role in all this. He has an incredible 18 goals and 28 points in 22 appearances. That said, Washington was still a strong 10-5-1 during the 16-game absence of Ovechkin from Nov. 21-Dec. 23 due to a fractured fibula, so clearly this team is more than just the byproduct of its superstar.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – Team Preview

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 16:00:57 +0000

_{NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 26: Nashville Predators left wing Filip Forsberg (9) is shown during game three of the Western Conference first round playoff between the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks, held on April 26, 2024, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)}

For much of 2023-24, the Predators were in the mix for a playoff spot, but far from a sure thing to advance. Following a 9-2 loss to Dallas on Feb. 15, Nashville was 27-25-2 and four points back in the wild-card race. Then Nashville’s core caught fire. Juuse Saros, who had a disappointing campaign to that point, went 15-3-3 with a 2.51 GAA and a .916 save percentage in 21 starts the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Filip Forsberg scored 23 goals and 41 points across Nashville’s final 28 outings, while Roman Josi and Gustav Nyquist recorded 36 and 34 points, respectively, over the same stretch. The result was Nashville reaching the postseason on the strength of a 47-30-5 record, but that was ultimately the high point for the Predators, who lost to Vancouver in the first round.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen and offensive defenceman Tyson Barrie exited as unrestricted free agents, and Nashville dealt away 35-year-old blueliner Ryan McDonagh, but the Predators gained far more during the summer than they lost. High-end forwards Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault signed from Tampa Bay and Vegas, respectively, bringing scoring depth and immense playoff experience to the franchise. Nashville also landed top four defenceman Brady Skjei to a seven-year deal. To replace Lankinen, Scott Wedgewood was inked to serve as Saros’ new understudy.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Nashville’s offence was middle-of-the-road last year, but with Stamkos and Marchessault joining Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, Nyquist, and Thomas Novak, the Predators should have two excellent scoring lines this season -- maybe even three depending on how they spread things out, and if 22-year-old Luke Evangelista takes a step up in his second full NHL season. Meanwhile, Saros was a mixed bag last year, but when he’s good, there are few better. Coupled with the intangibles that come from bringing in players who have leadership and winning experience, this might be the best Predators team in a long time.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Age might get in the way. Josi and Stamkos are both already 34, while Marchessault will join them on Dec. 27. O'Reilly is starting to get up there, too, at 33. All of them were excellent last year, and there are certainly plenty of examples of stars who have staved off declines in their mid-30s, so regression is far from certain, but it is a potential concern. Saros’ inconsistent play is as well. So much is riding on him, especially after locking him up to an eight-year, $61.92 million deal over the summer, so if suffers prolonged cold streaks, that would be awfully concerning.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Nashville is expected to rely heavily on veterans this season, but as noted above, Evangelista could be a meaningful part of the Predators’ offence in 2024-25. He had 16 goals and 39 points in 80 regular-season contests in 2023-24, which isn’t bad given that he was limited to an average of 13:57 of ice time. Keep in mind, though, that Nashville’s offseason additions might result in him serving primarily on the third line and second power-play unit, which would in turn limit his contributions.

FORWARD

Ryan O'Reilly

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	24	52	76	0.97

A major part of Nashville’s roster shake-up was buying out Matt Duchene and signing Ryan O’Reilly to a four-year deal. His $4.5 million cap hit looks like a hilarious underpay after how the first year of deal went. As a long-time Selke candidate, his excellent two-way play was expected but his real value came from giving the Preds something they haven’t had in years, an undisputed top line center. He was their go-to guy in every situation, and he shined on the power play. His playmaking and hockey sense provided a great complement to Filip Forsberg, helping him have a career season. He was one of the best in the league on the power play from the hashmarks down, both at working the slot and the net front. Not just as getting to the blue paint, but with timing rebounds, knowing where the loose pucks are and positioning himself so that he can capitalize on open nets. O’Reilly is like having a coach on the ice with how smart of a player he is, always directing traffic from the bumper position on the power play and shouldering the burden on breakouts. A perfect player to shepherd the Preds into their next stage, O’Reilly will give them a ton of value both on and off the scoresheet. The added offseason additions of Stamkos and Marchessault should ensure he maintains or exceeds last season production.

Steven Stamkos

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	37	34	71	0.95

Shockwaves were sent around the hockey world when news broke that Tampa Bay would be walking away from their longtime captain Steven Stamkos. It’s not often you have the chance to sign a future Hall of Famer, so it was a major jolt in the arm to Nashville when he chose them as the place to spend the final years of his career. While the days of him going back-and-forth with Ovechkin for the Richard race are over, the resurgence Stamkos has had after a myriad of injuries is something to behold. Suffering a bloodclot in the 2020 playoffs, he was slow to get back to speed and since then, he’s had two 40+ goal seasons in three years. How does he look like on Nashville as a 33-year-old though? He is still reliant on that deadly one-timer, and he’s had the luxury of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point setting him up on the power play to get most of those goals. A lot of his value comes and goes with goal-scoring, as his play-driving strengths have gone downhill as he has gotten older. Tampa also had a tough time figuring out a permanent spot for him at even strength last year, yo-yoing between center and wing on scoring lines and checking lines depending on team needs. Nashville has a pretty good setup with a lethal top line and good scoring forwards emerging, so there are some intriguing options on where to slot their new toy. If anything, their power play should get a massive jolt. The adjustment will be real so expecting 35-40 goals and a point a game would be a good season in his new surroundings.

Filip Forsberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	54	48	102	1.24

Forsberg was always one of those players whose talent never matched up with his production, topping out as a 60-point guy due to injuries and low-scoring totals. That all changed two years ago when he reached the 40-goal mark and he did it again last season, coming two shy of hitting 50. He is one of the most gifted players in the league at puck-handling and creating his own shot. Strong on the puck with a dazzling set of hands, it’s incredibly difficult to get the puck away from Forsberg and he has that long stride where he can cover a lot of ground without possessing great speed. Combine that with his heavy, deceptive wrist shot, and you have someone who could garner some attention for a Hart Trophy when it all clicks. The problem for Forsberg is that it hasn’t “all clicked” for him except for a couple seasons in his career. The coaching change and his chemistry with Nyquist and O’Reilly helped a lot with this, as the two read off each other well and Nashville plays more of a free-wheeling style that allows Forsberg to get more puck touches and opportunities off the rush. He’s also become much better at forcing his way to the net if no shot is open. He is the engine that powers Nashville. Health allowing he could threaten 50 goals, though will defer to Stamkos at times on the power play in that regard,

Gus Nyquist

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	18	42	60	0.76

Even the biggest fans of Gus Nyquist were surprised with what he did in his 10^th NHL season, not only setting a career high in points but topping his career best by 21 points. He’s a jack of all trades winger who found a home on Nashville’s top line and enjoyed the many scoring opportunities that were set up on a platter for him by Forsberg and O’Reilly. It was also a two-way street because someone has to finish and get to the scoring areas for those chances to become goals and Nyquist did an excellent job of that. He started by scoring a lot by circumstance off rebounds and deflections, but it slowly began to look like a throwback to his Detroit days where the heavy wrist shot was his main weapon. His puck-protection skills, strong defensive stick and love of orbiting the offensive zone also helped him mesh as the third wheel on that Nashville top line. How the acquisition of Stamkos affects him will be interesting, as he plays the simplest game out of the three on the top line and the potential Stamkos brings on the off-wing might be too good to pass up. He’s also the most prone to regression on the scoresheet even if his worker-bee mindset shouldn’t be overlooked. Temper your expectations downward to 55 – 60 points, but meshed too well on the top line to overlook for possibly more.

Tommy Novak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	19	36	55	0.71

Last season wasn’t so much a “prove it” year for Novak as it was finding out what an average year looks like for him. Not that his scoring surge was purely percentage-driven, because he was excellent at driving offence, but he had never played a full NHL season at that point and his goal-scoring ability came out of nowhere. Novak proved some skeptics wrong because he was one of Nashville’s best players at driving rush offence, creating zone entries and setting up scoring chances, the scoring, however, was a little more evened out. He was streaker and a mid-season injury put him behind the eight-ball a little bit. On the whole, he had a nice year alongside rookie Luke Evangilista and journeyman Mark Jankowski, scoring at a top six rate and allowing them to show some of their skill. Playmaking is Novak’s calling hard and has been for a while. He’s very strong along the wall despite his size and his vision is among the best on Nashville’s roster. The goal-scoring, however, was a major surprise. Not just that it happened, but because most of his goals were pure sniper shots you wouldn’t expect from someone who has never scored 20 goals at any level. He’s getting better every season despite being in his late-20’s and should slide into a nice spot with Nashville’s improved scoring depth. If the top line stays together, he is likely centering Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault on the second line. Equally he will lose power play time to his potential new line mates but should break through the 20-goal level and assists should be in good supply with the two prior 40-goal shooters on his wing.

Jonathan Marchessault

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	34	26	60	0.73

There isn’t a situation where Vegas walking away from Marchessault would be received well. He doesn’t have the pedigree of Stamkos, but he was there since the team’s inception, holds most of their records and won the Conn Smythe in their Cup year. This was Nashville’s gain as they pounced on another franchise’s icon to help reshape their forward corps. There are a few reasons why Vegas didn’t keep him despite him coming off a 42-goal season, aside from the fact that he turns 34 in December. Marchessault wasn’t just a goal-scorer in his prime, he was a pure driver of offence and possession. You could play him anywhere in the lineup and get great results. Last year, the goal-scoring didn’t taper off, but the playmaking and possession-driving weren’t up to his usual standards. He’s more of a shoot-first type of a player now rather than someone who will work the give-and-go game and help with carrying the puck into the zone. This could be a sign of him slowing down or just a one-off because every year before this was excellent and the bonus goals more than made up for it. Nashville is flush with pure shooters now between him, Stamkos and Forsberg in their top six with some intriguing setup guys in O’Reilly, Nyquist and Novak. It’s the deepest forward corps they’ve had in years.

Luke Evangelista

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	19	26	45	0.55

Leading their AHL team in scoring when he was called up in early 2023, Evangelista impressed Nashville enough to make him a permanent fixture in their lineup. The rewards weren’t immediate, as he scored in only two games in his first 20 of the season. The slump kept him from being a regular top six member, but he still finished the year strong with 16 goals and he was a very good playmaker all season. He was one of the more skilled forwards on the roster outside of their top line and Nashville allowed him to play through some of his growing pains. An effective puck-carrier with a low center of gravity, Evangelista can make quick-strike offence happen and has a lethal shot when he gets space. He just doesn’t use it much and will look to pass instead, which resulted in him setting up a lot of point shots to probe the defence instead of making a high-risk play. Part of the reason why his play-driving stats were inconsistent up until the end of the season was when he, Mark Jankowski and Tommy Novak formed a red hot third line for the Preds to close the season. He still hasn’t put it together, but Evangelista does a lot of things that should keep him a contributing player in the league for a long time. He will have more of a fight for prime offensive minutes this year, although he could also see a linemate boost if his play improves.

Colton Sissons

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	14	20	34	0.41

The less-celebrated Nashville forward who reached a career high in goals and points under Andrew Brunette, Sissons’ game is all about defence and penalty killing. We live in an age where almost every forward was a high-scorer in juniors or another level and can burn you if given the opportunity. Sissons wasn’t necessarily one of those guys, but he isn’t a slouch when it comes to finishing opportunities put on a tee for him. This was the case last year, scoring most of his goals off deflections, rebounds and surprising goalies with the occasional snipe. Sissons has been a fixture in Nashville for years, one of their more relied on penalty killers and their most aggressive to break shorthanded. Has a good first stride to get a step on defenders and takes a lot of the burden with defensive zone draws, setting the table for the next lines to play more in the offensive zone. The one lower-scoring forward who doesn’t need to worry about his ice-time because of his role in the defensive zone, but he will have to adjust to life without longtime linemate Yakov Trenin, who was the forechecking presence on this line.

Philip Tomasino

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
58	7	14	21	0.36

In what appears to be a “make-or-break” year for the former first round pick, Tomasino’s had a lot of NHL time for someone who can technically still be considered a prospect. Making the team out of camp, he didn’t get consistent playing time until the middle of the season and was sent back down to Milwaukee in February, where he spent the rest of the year. Tomasino’s drawback is that he hasn’t figured out how to score at the same rate he did at other levels, although he has never gotten prime offensive minutes and last year was an uphill battle for him in terms of linemates and situational deployment. He still ended up scoring at a 39-point pace, which is comparable to rookie Luke Evangelista and other young players who are slotted as productive top nine forwards. This might just be the burden of expectations and Nashville not having a deep enough roster to put him in a position to succeed, the latter of which could change this year. He is a dynamic skater who can weave through traffic and can create chances from inside the dots on his own. It will take an injury to break into the top six, but he could see some secondary power play time. There’s some major boom-or-bust potential with him, as he can be someone that lights it up on their third line or ends up back in roster purgatory. At 23, this is usually the year where it goes one way or another.

DEFENCE

Roman Josi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	24	66	90	1.13

It’s easy to take excellence for granted. It’s doubtful anyone who follows Nashville does this with Roman Josi. He’s been the face of the team since the departure of PK Subban and has done nothing but casually break the mold for how a defenceman should play. There were times when you would be shocked to see a blueliner leading the rush or flying the zone, but it’s a regular occurrence for him in Nashville. A change in strategy to decrease his workload on puck retrievals and zone exits helped take his offensive production to another level in 2021-22 and we saw a repeat of that this year. With Ryan McDonagh or Dante Fabbro handling most of the forecheck pressure, Josi was free to roam up the ice and find all the open space in the neutral zone. He’s still the best skater and passer on the Preds, so good things usually happen when the puck is on his stick. His defensive game has also rounded out the past year, getting burned on rushes less frequently and giving forwards less of a gap when he does have to defend one-on-one. He still has that riverboat gambler mindset but is less of a pure one-way threat now than he was earlier in his career. Forsberg is the engine powering Nashville, but Josi is the one driving the bus. Do not underestimate and could take a step yet offensively.

Brady Skjei

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	13	39	52	0.64

Needing a minute-eater, Nashville found a good one in Brady Skjei in free agency, although it did cost them a pretty penny at over seven million AAV for seven years. Skjei is a great case of a player’s development not stagnating when they hit their early 20’s. He was a player with a lot of flaws in his game when Carolina got him at the 2020 trade deadline, with not much to his game except his size, skating and cardio. With some time under their coaching staff and playing regular minutes, he formed one of the league’s best shutdown pairs with Brett Pesce. Skjei’s main contributions were his shot blocking, his mobility and his ever-improving offensive instincts. He scored double-digit goals in each of his last two seasons, Carolina’s love of point shots fueling that, and should be in a position to contribute offensively in Nashville with how involved their defencemen usually are. The question is where he slots, as he can be Josi’s puck retrieval guy and another big shot to worry about from the point, or a guy who can carry their second pair. One would think it’s the latter, as he has no issues playing the tough matchups if he needs to. He was also used on the power play sparingly with the Hurricanes, although he will probably be limited to second unit duty at most with Josi in Nashville. He should be closer to 35 – 40 points and 10 goals or more in his new surroundings.

Alex Carrier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	5	18	23	0.29

Seemingly on the trade block every year, Nashville went the other way and elected to re-sign the undersized defenceman to a three-year deal. Watching him play, it’s easy to see why most teams wanted him and why Nashville wanted to keep him. He can play the big minutes and is a mobile defenceman who can do all the little things. Carrier’s a great skater who can take a lot of hits despite his size, making him a great outlet in the defensive zone and he uses his low center gravity to time hits and break up plays at the blue line. His offence is also underrated, as he will jump into the play given the opportunity. Only has modest point totals to show for it, but he makes lives so much easier for the forwards in front of him with the work he does on the blue line. Great at walking the blue line and getting pucks through traffic as well. He’s a bit on the older side for someone who doesn’t have much NHL experience but can still hold the fort down on a second pair.

Dante Fabbro

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
66	2	12	14	0.21

Sometimes a player is “first pair” or “top line” in the lineup card only, that’s the case for Dante Fabbro. Usually paired with Roman Josi, Fabbro doesn’t always play every shift alongside him, usually subbed out late in the game for Ryan McDonagh or in long offensive zone shifts for someone with a little more pop. Fabbro gets the minutes with Josi because he can accept the role as the “retrieval guy” on the pair, taking a lot of hits and deferring most of the exits to someone else. He might not log major minutes, but they’re not easy to play and his role is one of the more underappreciated on the team. He hasn’t gotten to show some of the high-end offence he had in college because of his energy is burned in the defensive zone and you’re not going to get a lot of puck touches alongside Josi. Fabbro can still lean into a wrist shot from distance when he gets the room, but his relied upon to be a stabilizer more than a driver. Healthy scratch at times last year but has more of a clear roster spot now with Tyson Barrie leaving.

GOAL

Juuse Saros

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
61	36	19	6	4	0.910	2.61

If the Nashville Predators were especially lucky to transition seamlessly from perennially-elite starter Pekka Rinne to similarly-reliable Juuse Saros a handful of years ago, it seems their luck may have finally started to run out. The Central Division club, who were potentially poised to enter a new tandem era with Saros and top-tier prospect Yaroslav Askarov, found their hands forced by Askarov’s desire to start the year in the NHL instead of with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals. His move to the San Jose Sharks at the end of August put Nashville’s goaltending situation into a very different perspective; things still aren’t as bleak as they could be, but this isn’t an obstacle they’ll be able to look back on and shrug off.

Saros has continued to be a commanding presence in the blue paint for Nashville. His ability to box opponents out of his crease and eliminate screens help him overcome any deficit he might incur as one of the league's shortest goaltenders. Even as Nashville has started to exit their contention window, Saros has looked like an almost seamless transition for the club from former star Pekka Rinne - and the hope was that Askarov would replicate the cycle all over again, coming in alongside Saros until he was ready to shoulder the larger bulk of the workload in the next few years. The Predators added veteran Scott Wedgewood on a multi-year deal to presumably serve as Saros' backup this year - which likely left Askarov convinced he’d spend the bulk of the year in the minors, prompting the discontent that led to his trade request. Now, Nashville will have to hope that Saros can continue to be their star without guaranteed help on the horizon; it's not an impossible feat, but it's far from the bright future Nashville fans have been eagerly awaiting since the 2020 NHL Draft.

McKeen’s 2024 NHL Playoff Pool Picklist

Robert Howard — Sat, 20 Apr 2024 17:01:11 +0000

COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 25: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid #97 prior to the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

In kicking off our 2024 NHL Playoff Pool coverage, Scott Cullen did an excellent breakdown of how to strategize for your pool. We recommend you give it a read and can link here.

The picklist below largely follows the strategy laid out in his article focusing on these broad categories – 1) Diversify 2) Stacking 3) First Round Winners 4) Power Play 5) Late Season Production 6) Injuries 7) Targeting playoff performers. Every playoff season will be different, of course, and simply following the Stanley Cup odds laid in many places including BetGM will provide a picture of which teams you should focus on with your picks to make the final, but the path to that result will vary. They currently have the Carolina Hurricanes (650) and the Colorado Avalanche (700) as odds on favourites to meet in the Stanley Cup Final, followed closely by Florida Panthers (700), Dallas Stars (800), Edmonton Oilers (800) and the New York Rangers (900).

If we look at McKeen’s team predictions for each of the first round series it becomes clear some teams have an easier path and their players will provide the best odds to play the most games. Lets look at how the brackets might shake out.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Dallas Vs. Vegas – We have Dallas winning in seven in a very hard-fought battle. A deep Dallas team versus the defending Champion who boasts several high-profile additions to end the season.

Winnipeg Vs. Colorado – This should be another war with the potential of a Winnipeg upset if Connor Hellebuyck rises to the occasion and Georgiev continues his late season struggles. Colorado should triumph in seven games.

Second Round Matchup: Colorado vs Dallas - The winner of these two close series meet and it means one of the highly ranked Colorado or Dallas will eliminate each other in the second round, assuming no upset in the first.

Edmonton Vs. Los Angeles – Edmonton should have the depth and firepower to take Los Angeles in six as we have predicted.

Vancouver Vs. Nashville – We hesitate to underestimate Nashville again, and this could be a close contest, but feel confident Vancouver will take it in six.

Second Round Matchup: Edmonton vs Vancouver – This should make for a thrilling series, but McDavid and company looked on a mission in the second half and should proceed to the conference final in six.

Therefore, the conference final in the west is projected to be Edmonton versus Colorado or Dallas (two very closely matched teams).

EASTERN CONFRENCE

Florida Vs. Tampa Bay – The recent two-time Stanley Cup champion meets last year’s finalist in the first round. While Tampa’s core may be aging, they are still a real threat if they get rolling. Florida showed they know how to win in the playoffs last year as well. Two goaltenders who can steal a series may make this a potential upset, but Florida should prevail in six.

Boston Vs. Toronto – Old nemesis meet again in the first round. Boston has beaten Toronto consistently in the playoffs in recent years and won all head-to-head matchups this season. There are questions about both teams, but the series should go seven and really could go either way.

Second Round Matchup: Boston Vs. Florida – with both series offering potential upsets, Florida players are ranked higher than Boston, and have ranked some high scoring Leafs and reasonable picks given they could well make it to the second round and can provide a challenge for both teams.

Carolina Vs. New York Islanders – A deep Carolina team adding some significant pieces at the deadline and should beat the Islanders here in five games.

New York Rangers Vs. Washington – The Rangers should be heavy favourites in this series and should beat the Capital in five or six games.

Second Round Matchup: - Carolina vs New York Rangers – of the second-round matchups this is the one we are most comfortable predicting. It should be a close series with the Hurricanes moving on to the Conference Final against Florida.

The following picklist is based on those possible outcomes. The first round offers some interesting matchups that could leave a favourite or two on the outside looking in early. Stack up on the teams you feel have the best odds of taking the cup but understand there are always upsets. Looking at the above, the teams with the easiest path to the conference final are Edmonton and Carolina. Colorado and Dallas are favourites of both the oddsmakers and ourselves to win a cup, but one of them will bow out by the second round. Florida has depth but will have to go through Tampa and either Boston or Toronto.

Good luck whichever strategy you choose.

Subscribers can download an excel version of this list in subscriber downloads

RANK	Player	Team	Pos	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	P/GP	EVG	EVP	PPG	PPP
1	Connor McDavid	EDM	C	76	32	100	132	35	30	1.74	24	87	7	44
2	Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	82	51	89	140	35	42	1.71	41	92	10	48
3	Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	78	36	53	89	34	36	1.14	24	55	11	32
4	Jake Guentzel	CAR	C	67	30	47	77	25	22	1.15	25	55	5	22
5	Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	81	41	65	106	26	76	1.31	20	65	21	39
6	Mikko Rantanen	COL	R	80	42	62	104	19	50	1.3	28	64	14	40
7	Cale Makar	COL	D	77	21	69	90	15	16	1.17	13	47	7	39
8	Sam Reinhart	FLA	C	82	57	37	94	29	31	1.15	25	55	27	34
9	Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	L	80	26	62	88	19	88	1.1	19	55	6	32
10	Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	73	23	57	80	33	24	1.1	18	49	5	29
11	Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	82	49	71	120	18	24	1.46	38	75	11	44
12	Jason Robertson	DAL	L	82	29	51	80	19	22	0.98	20	52	9	28
13	Roope Hintz	DAL	C	80	30	35	65	26	22	0.81	19	42	8	19
14	Seth Jarvis	CAR	C	81	33	34	67	23	14	0.83	18	44	13	20
15	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	R	59	19	33	52	13	58	0.88	14	35	5	17
16	Evan Bouchard	EDM	D	81	18	64	82	34	32	1.01	10	47	8	35
17	Zach Hyman	EDM	L	80	54	23	77	36	48	0.96	39	57	15	20
18	Valeri Nichushkin	COL	R	54	28	25	53	5	22	0.98	12	30	16	21
19	Nikita Kucherov	TBL	R	81	44	100	144	8	22	1.78	31	91	13	53
20	Auston Matthews	TOR	C	81	69	38	107	31	20	1.32	51	77	18	29
21	David Pastrnak	BOS	R	82	47	63	110	21	47	1.34	35	75	12	35
22	Jack Eichel	VGK	C	63	31	37	68	4	27	1.08	20	44	11	22
23	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM	C	80	18	49	67	10	36	0.84	14	38	4	26
24	Joe Pavelski	DAL	C	82	27	40	67	12	20	0.82	16	46	11	21
25	Matt Duchene	DAL	C	80	25	40	65	15	20	0.81	19	49	6	16
26	Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	81	26	46	72	15	30	0.89	12	35	12	31
27	Martin Necas	CAR	C	77	24	29	53	-9	42	0.69	16	40	8	13
28	Vincent Trocheck	NYR	C	82	25	52	77	16	55	0.94	13	52	11	24
29	Chris Kreider	NYR	L	82	39	36	75	19	26	0.91	19	41	18	29
30	William Nylander	TOR	R	82	40	58	98	1	24	1.2	26	59	11	35
31	Mitch Marner	TOR	R	69	26	59	85	21	18	1.23	17	57	8	27
32	Adam Fox	NYR	D	72	17	56	73	21	36	1.01	10	38	6	33
33	Miro Heiskanen	DAL	D	71	9	45	54	8	36	0.76	7	33	2	21
34	Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	76	34	38	72	17	36	0.95	26	51	8	21
35	Mark Stone	VGK	R	56	16	37	53	1	22	0.95	10	35	4	14
36	Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	82	32	33	65	14	38	0.79	26	52	3	10
37	Casey Mittelstadt	COL	C	80	18	39	57	10	32	0.71	15	48	3	9
38	Jonathan Drouin	COL	L	79	19	37	56	12	28	0.71	14	37	5	19
39	Artturi Lehkonen	COL	L	45	16	18	34	11	14	0.76	9	22	7	12
40	Sam Bennett	FLA	C	69	20	21	41	17	100	0.59	15	29	5	12
41	Vladimir Tarasenko	FLA	R	76	23	32	55	13	12	0.72	20	46	3	9
42	Jamie Benn	DAL	L	82	21	39	60	8	41	0.73	13	35	7	22
43	Tyler Seguin	DAL	C	68	25	27	52	10	26	0.76	22	42	3	8
44	J.T. Miller	VAN	C	81	37	66	103	32	58	1.27	25	61	10	40
45	Quinn Hughes	VAN	D	82	17	75	92	38	38	1.12	12	54	5	38
46	Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	82	34	55	89	20	12	1.09	21	56	13	31
47	Brad Marchand	BOS	L	82	29	38	67	2	78	0.82	19	37	7	26
48	Charlie Coyle	BOS	C	82	25	35	60	-2	38	0.73	17	44	7	11
49	Jonathan Marchessault	VGK	R	82	42	27	69	-2	40	0.84	34	52	8	17
50	Tomas Hertl	VGK	C	54	17	21	38	-28	22	0.7	10	26	6	11
51	Teuvo Teravainen	CAR	L	76	25	28	53	15	10	0.7	15	32	9	17
52	Mason Marchment	DAL	L	81	22	31	53	22	54	0.65	16	42	6	11
53	Thomas Harley	DAL	D	79	15	32	47	28	18	0.59	13	37	1	9
54	John Tavares	TOR	C	80	29	36	65	2	30	0.81	20	45	9	20
55	Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	78	21	38	59	12	18	0.76	15	44	6	15
56	Brayden Point	TBL	C	81	46	44	90	-16	14	1.11	31	58	15	32
57	Steven Stamkos	TBL	C	79	40	41	81	-21	34	1.03	21	42	19	39
58	Victor Hedman	TBL	D	78	13	63	76	18	76	0.97	9	45	4	31
59	Brandon Hagel	TBL	L	82	26	49	75	1	79	0.91	24	66	2	7
60	Evander Kane	EDM	L	77	24	20	44	-4	85	0.57	21	36	2	7
61	Logan Stankoven	DAL	C	24	6	8	14	10	4	0.58	5	12	1	2
62	Devon Toews	COL	D	82	12	38	50	28	18	0.61	12	43	0	5
63	Charlie McAvoy	BOS	D	74	12	35	47	4	86	0.64	11	34	1	13
64	Morgan Rielly	TOR	D	72	7	51	58	7	27	0.81	6	38	1	20
65	Brock Boeser	VAN	R	81	40	33	73	23	14	0.9	24	48	16	25
66	Alexis Lafrenière	NYR	L	82	28	29	57	2	40	0.7	26	51	2	6
67	Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	74	25	47	72	19	57	0.97	19	54	6	18
68	Kyle Connor	WPG	L	65	34	27	61	-6	6	0.94	29	42	5	19
69	Chandler Stephenson	VGK	C	75	16	35	51	-9	25	0.68	10	35	4	13
70	Mattias Ekholm	EDM	D	79	11	34	45	44	47	0.57	8	41	2	3
71	Josh Morrissey	WPG	D	81	10	59	69	34	44	0.85	8	50	2	19
72	Ross Colton	COL	C	80	17	23	40	-8	61	0.5	14	35	3	5
73	Warren Foegele	EDM	L	82	20	21	41	3	47	0.5	18	38	1	1
74	Brady Skjei	CAR	D	80	13	34	47	15	40	0.59	11	31	1	12
75	Brent Burns	CAR	D	82	10	33	43	19	20	0.52	5	22	4	20
76	William Karlsson	VGK	C	70	30	30	60	15	22	0.86	22	43	7	15
77	Shea Theodore	VGK	D	47	5	37	42	4	6	0.89	3	27	2	15
78	Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	82	48	46	94	16	43	1.15	35	62	13	32
79	Roman Josi	NSH	D	82	23	62	85	12	45	1.04	14	51	9	33
80	Sean Monahan	WPG	C	83	26	33	59	-1	12	0.71	15	36	9	21
81	Gustav Forsling	FLA	D	79	10	29	39	56	43	0.49	9	37	1	2
82	Brandon Montour	FLA	D	66	8	25	33	1	46	0.5	7	16	1	17
83	Mathew Barzal	NYI	C	80	23	57	80	-4	34	1	18	55	5	25
84	Noah Dobson	NYI	D	79	10	60	70	12	36	0.89	9	45	1	24
85	Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG	L	82	25	36	61	27	29	0.74	25	54	0	7
86	Tyler Toffoli	WPG	C	79	33	22	55	-6	14	0.7	22	37	11	18
87	Cole Perfetti	WPG	C	71	19	19	38	13	12	0.54	14	27	5	11
88	Gabriel Vilardi	WPG	C	47	22	14	36	11	14	0.77	13	22	9	14
89	Anthony Duclair	TBL	L	73	24	18	42	-8	34	0.58	19	30	5	12
90	Brock Nelson	NYI	C	82	34	35	69	-5	28	0.84	24	48	9	19
91	Bo Horvat	NYI	C	81	33	35	68	-1	39	0.84	22	48	10	18
92	Adrian Kempe	LAK	R	77	28	47	75	13	72	0.97	20	44	5	27
93	Kevin Fiala	LAK	L	82	29	44	73	1	62	0.89	18	43	11	30
94	Anze Kopitar	LAK	C	81	26	44	70	11	22	0.86	16	44	9	23
95	Jake DeBrusk	BOS	L	80	19	21	40	4	18	0.5	15	28	2	10
96	Tyler Bertuzzi	TOR	L	80	21	22	43	2	53	0.54	16	37	5	6
97	Ivan Barbashev	VGK	C	82	19	26	45	15	42	0.55	16	40	3	5
98	Gustav Nyquist	NSH	C	81	23	52	75	7	8	0.93	17	49	5	24
99	Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	82	26	43	69	6	18	0.84	12	41	14	28
100	Max Domi	TOR	C	80	9	38	47	10	118	0.59	8	45	1	2

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Sharks show some bite in tough season – Coyotes, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Devils, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Canucks and Golden Knights – Players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Dec 2023 16:09:54 +0000

BOSTON, MA - NOVEMBER 30: San Jose Sharks left wing Fabian Zetterlund (20) takes a shot in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the San Jose Sharks on November 30, 2023, at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

This column was previously getting released at the start of the week, but starting today, it will come out Saturdays instead. It’ll still preview the upcoming week, but now you’ll have more time to plan your strategy. Please bear in mind that the information provided is reflective of the time of writing (in this case, the morning of Dec. 8).

That aside, I wanted to cast a light on San Jose, which has won five of its last seven games. The Sharks have been fun to watch recently with them overcoming a 4-1 deficit against the Islanders on Tuesday and a 4-0 deficit to the Red Wings on Thursday. After a 0-10-1 start to the campaign that included back-to-back games in which they surrendered 10 goals, the Sharks are now 8-17-2. Still not good, but given where they came from, that’s impressive.

Looking at their last seven games specifically, the big change for San Jose has been its offense. The Sharks have scored 4.00 goals per game over that span, compared to 1.09 over their first 11 outings. Tomas Hertl has been an important factor in their recent surge, providing five goals and nine points over his last six appearances, but the real standout performer has been Mikael Granlund, who went from recording four assists over his first 13 contests to contributing three goals and 12 points over his last seven outings.

The Sharks have gotten some support team-wide too. Seven different players have supplied at least two goals over the past seven games, including three markers from defenseman Jacob MacDonald, who had just three goals over 101 career NHL games going into this campaign.

Is this sustainable, though? Probably not. The Sharks don’t have a particularly good team. Goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen are still struggling, so if the offense cools from its unreal pace, then the whole house of cards will likely crumble again. Plus overcoming three- or four-goal deficits is fun to watch, but not something that can be counted on to happen routinely.

It is encouraging to see youngsters William Eklund, who has two goals and five points over his last four contests, and Fabian Zetterlund, who has four goals and five points over his last seven games, do well though. They’re the future of the franchise, so strong performances from them matter much more to San Jose than whether the squad is winning or losing today.

Arizona Coyotes - MON @ BUF, TUE @ PIT (BTB), FRI VS. SJS, SAT VS. BUF (BTB)

The Coyotes enjoyed a five-game winning streak from Nov. 25-Dec. 4, bringing them up to 13-9-2 by the end of that run. After spending a few years rebuilding, Arizona has a real shot of making the playoffs this year.

Of course, the Coyotes still have a lot of work ahead of them, which they’ll continue next week with games in Buffalo on Monday and Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by home contests versus the Sharks on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Those adversaries range from bad to middling this campaign, so the Coyotes should do well.

With two back-to-back sets, Karel Vejmelka should get some work for the first time since Nov. 22. He’s struggled this campaign with a 2-6-2 record, 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage in 11 contests, so he’s not an ideal option for a situational pickup. That said, if he draws the Sharks, then it might be worth considering him (provided San Jose has cooled by that point).

If Alex Kerfoot is still available in your league, he’d be a good pickup. He’s one of the hottest players in the league with a goal and nine points over his last five contests. Part of that surge is thanks to him getting an increased role. Over his first 15 contests this campaign, he had a goal and four points while averaging 15:01 of ice time, including just 0:18 with the man advantage, but that’s jumped to 18:57 over his last 10 contests, including 2:21 on the power play. So, while he obviously can’t maintain the offensive pace of his last five games, as long as Arizona keeps deploying him like it has recently, Kerfoot should continue to be a valuable forward in most fantasy leagues.

Someone else to consider in the short-term but is less likely to have long-term success is Michael Carcone. He has five goals over his last five contests, but his shooting percentage has climbed to an unsustainable 32.4 and he serves in a bottom-six role, so expect him to crash completely once the hot streak is over.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ OTT, THU @DET, FRI VS NSH (BTB), SUN VS WAS

The Hurricanes will start the week by completing their six-game road trip with games in Ottawa on Tuesday and Detroit on Thursday. They’ll then get an opportunity to defend PNC Arena when they host the Predators on Friday and the Capitals on Sunday. Detroit’s been pretty good this campaign, but Nashville is the only other opponent currently in a playoff position, and even then, just barely.

Andrei Svechnikov couldn’t play Thursday due to an upper-body injury. If it turns out he won’t be available for some or all of next week’s games, then that will have a significant impact on Carolina’s lineup. In particular, Michael Bunting could play a major role during Svechnikov’s absence. When Svechnikov missed the first eight contests of the campaign because of a knee injury, Bunting had two goals and six points in eight contests while averaging 18:12 of ice time. Since then, Bunting has dropped to 13:45 while providing four goals and 10 points over 17 games.

We also might see Brendan Lemieux playing consistently during Svechnikov’s absence. Lemieux isn’t much of a factor offensively, but if you’re in a position where you’re looking for penalty minutes, he can help you there. Through 10 appearances this season, he’s accumulated 33 PIM and the 27-year-old has 517 PIM in 285 career games.

On the power play, there might be an opportunity for Brady Skjei to assume a second-line role. He has four goals and 15 points in 29 contests this season, which is great for a defenseman who is averaging just 0:13 with the man advantage. Even a second unit power-play role would be a potentially meaningful boost for him.

Colorado Avalanche – MON VS CGY, WED VS BUG, SAT @ WPG, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

The Avalanche will play four games next week, including home contests against the Flames on Monday, the Sabes on Wednesday and the Sharks on Sunday. Sprinkled in there will also be a road outing in Winnipeg on Saturday. Of those opponents, just Winnipeg is in a playoff position. The Sharks have won five of their last seven games, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re still hot by the time that contest happens.

Speaking of hot players, Nathan MacKinnon is on a 10-game scoring streak, providing four goals and 16 points over that stretch, including two goals and five points over his last two contests alone. Through Thursday’s action, MacKinnon has moved into a three-way tie for fourth in the scoring race with 36 points in 26 outings.

The Avalanche don’t have any other players who are currently excelling, though. Bowen Byram is interesting with two goals and three points over his last four contests. He might be worth some short-term consideration, but the lack of a consistent power-play role is a significant negative.

We also should see Ivan Prosvetov start this week, likely Sunday versus San Jose. He’s been decent when utilized, posting a 2-1-1 record, 2.45 GAA and .919 save percentage in six contests this season, so if you’re looking for a situational pickup in goal, then Prosvetov is a good option.

New Jersey Devils – WED VS BOS, SAT @ CBJ, SUN VS ANA (BTB)

The Devils are a borderline selection because they have just three games this week and their first contest is a home game versus the mighty Bruins on Wednesday. However, New Jersey will then face two of the worst teams in the league with matches in Columbus on Saturday and against the Ducks on Sunday.

If you look at the league leader in terms of points per game, it isn’t Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin or Connor McDavid. That honor instead belongs to Jack Hughes, who has 10 goals and 33 points in just 19 contests. Hughes missed five straight games from Nov. 5-16 due to a shoulder injury but has bounced right back. In particular, he scored four goals and 10 points over a four-game stretch from Nov. 28-Dec. 5. Provided he stays healthy the rest of the way, Hughes is a good bet to surpass his career high of 99 points.

Hughes is far from New Jersey’s sole offensive threat with the team averaging 3.63 goals per game -- fourth in the NHL. However, that’s been counterbalanced by the Devils allowing 3.67 goals per contest, which is the second worst in the league. Their expected goals against per 60 is 3.27, which suggests that part of the problem is New Jersey’s defense, but its goaltending has been lacking too.

Vitek Vanecek is having a disastrous campaign with a 3.60 GAA and an .877 save percentage in 16 contests. The fact that he has a 9-5-0 record despite that is a testament to the Devils’ amazing offense, but for a team with playoff aspirations, Vanecek isn’t looking like an acceptable option. Lately, that’s led to New Jersey pivoting more toward Akira Schmid.

Schmid struggled initially with a 3.46 GAA and an .885 save percentage through his first six appearances in 2023-24, but since then he’s rebounded with a 3-2-0 record, 2.53 GAA and .920 save percentage in five outings. With the 23-year-old outplaying Vanecek, Schmid has a real opportunity to steal the No. 1 gig, which could lead to him accumulating a lot of wins given the offensive support New Jersey can provide.

New York Islanders – MON VS TOR, FRI VS ANA, SAT @BOS (BTB)

The Islanders will start the week with home games versus the Maple Leafs, Ducks and Bruins on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before visiting Montreal on Saturday. Toronto and Boston are tough adversaries, but Anaheim and Montreal rank near the bottom of the league, and it helps that the Islanders will be playing mostly at home next week.

Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have been playing some of the best hockey of their lives recently. Barzal has four goals and 11 points over his last four games, propelling him to nine goals and 27 points in 24 outings this year. Meanwhile, Horvat is on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s scored four goals and nine points, bringing him up to nine markers and 23 points through 24 appearances in 2023-24.

The Islanders have been getting offensive help from less common sources too. Julien Gauthier has two goals and five points in five contests this year. You can consider taking him in the short term, but keep in mind that he’s a depth forward, so once his hot streak ends, he won’t have value in anything but the absolute deepest of leagues.

Similarly, Simon Holmstrom is averaging just 13:38 of ice time this year, so he hasn’t been getting a big enough role to warrant holding him in standard fantasy leagues. However, Holmstrom is an interesting short-term option after scoring two goals and four points over his last four contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs – MON @ NYI, TUE @ NYR (BTB), THU VS CBJ, SAT VS PIT

The Maple Leafs’ schedule isn’t necessarily easy, but it is full with four games ahead of them. They’ll start the week with games in New York versus the Islanders on Monday and the Rangers on Tuesday. Afterwards, the Leafs will return home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday and Penguins on Saturday.

Goaltender Joseph Woll sustained a leg injury during Thursday’s 4-3 victory over Ottawa and is expected to miss time. He had been serving as the Leafs’ top goaltender, but the injury will at least temporarily force Toronto to pivot back to Ilya Samsonov, who has missed the last two games due to an illness but will presumably be fine by next week. Samsonov has a 3.58 GAA and an .878 save percentage in 10 contests, so he’s been far from ideal, but he shouldn’t be dismissed after recording a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 42 outings last season.

Martin Jones might also get a start next week depending on how long Woll is out for. Don’t expect too much out of Jones, though. He had a 3.09 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 220 NHL games from 2018-19 through 2022-23 and more recently has posted a 3.37 GAA and an .870 save percentage in five outings with AHL Toronto. Simply put, he’s not a good option. You might want to keep Dennis Hildeby in the back of your mind, though. The 22-year-old excelled in the Swedish Hockey League and has looked dominant in the AHL this campaign with a 1.89 GAA and a .925 save percentage in nine contests.

Putting the Maple Leafs’ goaltending aside, the team has been led by the usual suspects recently, which is to say that Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander have combined for seven goals and 12 points over Toronto’s last three games. Meanwhile, Max Domi has provided a goal and an assist over his last two contests. He’s been inconsistent offensively, which is unlikely to change so long as he’s averaging just 12:54 of ice time, but he’s an interesting short-term pickup while he’s hot, especially if you’re in a position to benefit from the penalty minutes he can provide.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS TBL, THU VS FLA, SAT @ MIN, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Canucks will kick off the week by hosting the Lightning on Tuesday and the Panthers on Thursday. They’ll then travel to Minnesota for a contest Saturday and face the Blackhawks in Chicago on Sunday. Those later two games are of particular interest given that they’re against teams not in playoff spots.

Sam Lafferty has bounced around the lineup this campaign, but lately, he’s been playing alongside Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. That’s a golden opportunity for the 28-year-old, who has seven goals and 13 points in 27 contests this year. He’s also doing well at the moment with two goals and three points over his last three games. Be careful not to get too excited about Lafferty, whose career high in points is just 27, but his fantasy value will increase meaningfully if his current top-six role proves to be more than just a temporary assignment.

One Canucks player who has trended in the other direction recently is Andrei Kuzmenko. After scoring 39 goals and 74 points in 81 contests last year, the 27-year-old has been limited to four goals and 15 points over 24 outings in 2023-24, including just one point (a goal) over his last eight appearances. Things got so bad that he was even a healthy scratch for two straight games from Nov. 24-25 and he logged just 12:15 of ice time Thursday, his second-lowest total of the season.

While I don’t expect Kuzmenko to repeat his 2022-23 heights, he certainly can do better than he has lately. Given his recent play and his diminished role (which I believe to be temporary), he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Vegas Golden Knights – TUE VS CGY, FRI VS BUF, SUN VS OTT

Vegas has just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests against teams not in a playoff position. Specifically, the Golden Knights will host the Flames on Tuesday, the Sabres on Friday and the Senators on Sunday.

Jack Eichel is easily the hottest member of the Golden Knights with four goals and nine points over his last four contests, pushing him up to 12 goals and 30 points in 27 contests in 2023-24. Alex Tuch has already worked out great for Buffalo while Peyton Krebs and Noah Ostlund still might be good for the Sabres in the long run, so it’d be overly simplistic to call Vegas the winners of the Eichel trade, but the Golden Knights nevertheless must be thrilled with how that move has worked out.

Ben Hutton has been a bit of a disappointment, though, at least from a fantasy perspective. With Shea Theodore (upper body) unavailable, Hutton has averaged 2:17 of power-play ice time over the last seven contests, up from an average of just 0:25 over his first 14 outings. However, Hutton has just a goal and an assist over his last seven games and neither of those points came with the man advantage. Hutton’s never been much of an offensive force anyway, but it is a shame that he hasn’t gotten any production out of that power-play role.

If Daniil Miromanov (undisclosed) returns before Theodore, then he might take that power-play spot from Hutton. In that scenario, Miromanov would have some fantasy value.

*(BTB) – Denotes the second of a back-to-back series

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 23 Sep 2023 18:10:29 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MAY 09: Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns (8) looks on during Game 4 of an Eastern Conference Second Round playoff game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on May 9, 2023, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Rod Brind'Amour coaching era continued to be a great time for Carolina in 2022-23. There were some serious issues with Andrei Svechnikov being limited to 64 games, Teuvo Teravainen scoring just 37 points and posting his lowest points-per-game (0.54) since 2016-17 and Max Pacioretty missing almost the entire campaign with a torn Achilles. However, thanks to the rise of Martin Necas and offensive defenseman Brent Burns entering another chapter in his fantastic career, the Hurricanes were able to at least be serviceable offensively and, when combined with their stellar defense, they navigated to a 52-21-9 record and third straight division title. Carolina then made it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in five years before running into Florida and getting absolutely goalied by the red-hot Sergei Bobrovsky.

What’s Changed? After Pacioretty spent most of the 2022-23 campaign on the long-term injured reserve list, the Hurricanes let him walk as an unrestricted free agent. Instead, they signed Michael Bunting to a three-year, $13.5 million contract in the hopes he’ll provide some scoring depth and grit. They also signed defenseman Tony DeAngelo, who has a checkered past, but saw success under Brind'Amour during the 2021-22 campaign and might serve a function again this year, especially on the power play after Carolina finished 20th in that regard in 2022-23 with a 19.8% conversion rate.

What would success look like? Making the playoffs is to be expected at this point, so Carolina’s success will instead by measured by how they do in the postseason. Teravainen missed a good chunk of the 2023 playoffs because of a hand injury, but given his regular season struggles, it’s not clear how helpful he would have been even if he was healthy. A strong campaign out of him would go a long way towards stabilizing the Hurricanes’ offense and putting them in a better position to power through if they run into a hot goaltender again.

What could go wrong? After failing to acquire Erik Karlsson on the trade market, the Hurricanes will still be relying heavily on Burns as their primary puck-moving blueliner, but he’s 38 years old now, so it’s hard to know how much more he’s got left in him. True, they do have DeAngelo again, but he’s usually a defensive liability and thus not a true replacement for Burns if the veteran blueliner takes a significant step back. There’s also a risk that Teravainen won’t bounce back or will once again run into injury troubles. Bunting might not pay off either. While he should provide some sandpaper at least, he also tends to get in trouble, and he’s going from a situation where he largely played alongside Auston Matthews to likely serving on the Hurricanes’ third line, so he might fail to reach even the 40-point milestone this year.

Top Breakout Candidate: If Carolina’s offense could use one more great weapon, then Seth Jarvis might be it. After scoring 31 goals and 79 points in 150 career contests, the 21-year-old forward is well positioned to take the next step. Selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, Jarvis is projected to serve on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho this year and should get a decent amount of power-play ice time too.

Forwards

Sebastian Aho - C

A model of consistency for the Hurricanes, Aho scored at a 35+ goal pace for the fourth year in a row. Whether it’s scoring goals or killing penalties, he is the engine that drives the Hurricanes. The team recognized it by re-signing him to an eight-year contract with a cap hit of $9.75 million AAV. Aho has the skillset that can thrive in any system and game situation, possessing an explosive first step and great vision to create quick-strike offense off the rush. An element the Hurricanes don’t have much of. He also doesn’t need a lot of space to create chances, being able to test goaltenders from awkward angles and find loose spots in coverage. This is a crucial skillset on a forecheck-heavy team like Carolina, so the strong work he does on the penalty kill and in the defensive zone is an added bonus. They are hoping he gets a little more finishing help from his linemates this year, as Aho produced at under the point-per-game mark last year despite a 36-goal season. It’s the one thing keeping him from being considered in the elite class of the NHL.

Andrei Svechnikov - LW

Around mid-November, it looked like Svechnikov was heading for stardom. He had 11 goals and 17 points in only 14 games, culminating with a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers on Nov. 12th. Since then, he scored only 12 goals in his next 50 games before a knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. Svechnikov has the complete package of an elite power forward. He can move the puck from one zone to the next without much effort and take the puck from the wall to the net better than almost anybody. The goals just haven’t followed as much as anybody hoped. He still provided a lot of value as a playmaker, especially in the left circle on the power play, but not at the superstar level the team envisioned. Being a streaky goal-scorer, he was primed to finish the season on a strong note but never got a chance. Right now, he is someone with a game-breaking skillset that hasn’t had the results to match it, but at only 23-years old he has plenty of time to break into that class. Carolina is hoping the goals come to him for the rest of the year as easily as they did in October.

Martin Necas - RW

Carolina wasn’t sure what they had in Martin Necas around this time last year. He was signed to a two-year bridge deal after a disappointing 40-point season and responded by having a true breakout season. Doubling his goal total and leading the team in points with 71 in 82 games. Carolina used him on the penalty kill, their top power play unit and extensively in overtime, scoring four game-winners. He excels in the playmaker role, as he loves to roam the perimeter and the neutral zone looking to thread the needle through defenders. That is still part of his game, but he toned it back a little this year and became more of a dual-threat with creating his own shot by getting to the slot on his own or using his linemates on quick give-and-go plays instead of settling for low-percentage passes to nobody. This resulted in more consistent production from Necas and made him one of Carolina’s more reliable players for most of the year. Keeping this up through April and May is the next step for the former first round pick.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi - C

The Hurricanes were waiting for Kotkaniemi to take that next step and in some ways he did. Jumping from the fourth line to the second line, the former third overall pick made some strides as one of the team’s rocks in their top-nine. Doing a lot of the little things and providing a steadying presence alongside Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas. He posted some of the strongest defensive numbers on the team, limiting shots and scoring chances while getting the tough matchups some nights. His offensive game is still a work in progress, as he isn’t very quick with the puck and opts for the simple play more times than not. It started to come around for him in the second half, as he posted 31 points in 46 games after Jan 1^st with career highs across the board. There is always going to be the question of if he can do more and become a true game-breaker for Carolina, but he is currently poised to be their shutdown center of the future.

Michael Bunting - LW

Every top-six need complementary players and you’ll struggle to find a better one than Michael Bunting. He has spent the last two years skating on the Maple Leafs top line after a long career in the minors and parlayed it into a nice three-year deal with Carolina. He knows how to take advantage of playing with elite talent, always finding the soft spots in coverage or being a nuisance in front of the net. Last year was somewhat of a down season for him, as he was more of a pain for the officials than opposing goaltenders, but he still scored a respectable 23 goals. His skillset fits the Hurricanes needs, as they needed a jolt in their top-six and Bunting is the complementary, net front player Aho has missed in recent years. He should have plenty of rebound opportunities in Carolina.

Seth Jarvis - RW

The sophomore slump can be tough for some players, and this was true for Seth Jarvis. Not only did he struggle to get on the scoresheet, but he wasn’t creating chances or driving play at the same level he was in his rookie year. Part of it was bad luck, as his shooting percentage dropped by over 50%, the other was Jarvis struggling to create on his own. In his rookie season, he was one of the team’s better players at creating in transition, making the extra play in the neutral zone to create quick-strike offense. Last year, other players had to set him up and he was poaching more goals from in front of the net. He had a slight resurgence in the second half, but still failed to top his numbers from his rookie season. Still young, Jarvis is still finding his way in the league and the Canes are hoping he can return to being more of a consistent threat in the top-six.

Teuvo Teravainen - LW

Teravainen had a rare down season in his seven-year Hurricane career, spending various times on injured reserve and scoring at only a 44-point pace, which would be his lowest since 2016-17. Most of his best skills are away from the puck. Always in the right position to receive a pass, disrupt a cycle or make it tougher to get through the neutral zone. Those parts of Teravainen’s game were still there, but the offense was steps behind his usual pace. His hands weren’t as quick or sharp as they usually are and most of his one-timers ended up going nowhere near the target. He did what he could to pitch in, but it is tough to be a key player on a top line when you don’t get a lot of puck touches and you can’t execute at the same level as you used to. Carolina is sticking with him in the final year of his contract, and he will have some competition to keep his spot on Aho’s wing.

Jordan Staal - C

Not much happens when Jordan Staal is on the ice and that’s usually a good thing for your team’s shutdown center. The Canes don’t score a lot of goals when his line is out there but neither do their opponents. This has been his role for most of his 12-year career in Raleigh. His condor wingspan and huge frame make him a tough matchup, as he excels at playing the keep away brand of hockey the Hurricanes have made their bread and butter. The offense usually comes in bunches for him, as 11 of his 17 goals came in a 30-game span from December to February and his puck skills haven’t gotten much better as he’s gotten older. Playing a basic brand of offense where he scores most of his goals from brute force than a high level of finesse. Still, when playoff time comes, he is the one who gets the matchup minutes and it’s a big reason why the Canes re-signed him to a four-year deal.

Stefan Noesen - RW

Noesen played his way back into the NHL after an incredible season with the Chicago Wolves and a strong training camp. He didn’t relinquish this spot and became more of an important player on the Hurricanes as the year went on, playing anywhere from the top line to the fourth line. Also earning some spot duty as a net front player on the top power play unit. This was especially important in the playoffs where he was a permanent fixture in the top-six due to a barrage of injuries in Carolina’s wing depth. He possesses a Swiss-army knife skillset where he can fill in almost anywhere, playing the high-intensity game needed for a checking line role and having enough puck skill to take advantage of playing with top liners. He showed some limitations keeping up with the speed of the game, but his stint in Carolina has rejuvenated his career as a role player who can pitch in anywhere.

Defense

Brent Burns - D

While on the back nine of his career, a stop in Carolina was just what the former Norris winner needed to get his game back on track. He could play most of the game with the puck in front of him, taking advantage of Carolina’s strong possession game and got back to a level we saw in the mid-2010’s with the Sharks. With most of the Hurricane’s offense being based off point shots and deflections, this was a perfect environment for Burns to get his career back on track and he posted his highest point total since 2018. He also was a regular on their penalty kill and more than held his own at even strength, especially in the defensive zone. Provided more of a physical presence on their top pair and giving them a dynamic shooting threat at the point. The only question with Burns is how soon he starts to look like a defenseman pushing 40. He is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the league, so he has a little more rope than others, but father time is undefeated.

Jaccob Slavin - D

Regarded as one of the league’s top defensive defensemen, 2022-23 was another year at the office for Jaccob Slavin. Posting solid numbers on the Hurricanes top pair while pitching in on offense when needed. He saw a big drop in his point production, but this is secondary when considering that he spent most of his five-on-five ice time with Brent Burns, who is taking most of the shot opportunities on that pair. He is the prototype for the modern shutdown defenseman, a lanky player with a great reach and someone who takes terrific angles to disrupt even some of the best skating forwards. It has been this way since he entered the league in 2015 and his game has yet to drop off despite the massive workload he takes on, playing in all situations for the Canes. We should expect more of the same, although with even less power play time on Carolina’s stacked defense corps.

Dmitry Orlov - D

A surprising move to kick off free agency was Carolina signing Dmitry Orlov to a two-year deal, paying him $7.75 million AAV, and creating an embarrassment of riches on their blue line. Where he slots in will be interesting, but he possesses a terrific all-around skillset. He can play the skilled game, as he’s an excellent puck-mover who loves joining the rush, as well as the physical game. Stepping up on forwards at the opposing blue line is one of his trademarks. Orlov’s playing style is more about his skill with the puck, but he’s been used in more of a shutdown role for most of his career. He was always the rock in Washington’s top four that allowed John Carlson to focus more on offense in easier matchups, so it will be interesting to see how the Canes utilize him. He saw his boxcar stats blow up in his short stint with Boston alongside Charlie McAvoy, recording 17 points in 23 games (after only 19 in 43 with the Caps). The flashes were always there with Washington even if the point total never was. The only major concern with him is that he’s 32-years old and hasn’t played a full season since 2019.

Tony DeAngelo - D

The talented defenseman made the most of what was a “last chance” type of deal in Carolina two years ago. The Canes opted to walk from his RFA deal, trading him to Philadelphia, who happily paid him $5 million AAV. In a sense, they got what they expected out of DeAngelo. He scored a career high 11 goals, quarterbacked their top power play unit and he had a standard year for himself offensively. However, he was also tasked with playing a bigger role outside of the insulation he got on Carolina’s top pair alongside Jaccob Slavin, tasked with more defensive responsibility and having to play tougher minutes in general. He handled the puck-moving part of his role well, but his small frame and over-aggressive play made him a tough fit in the top-four, with the Flyers moving him down in the lineup as the season went on. They opted to buy out the last year of his contract after a trade with the Hurricanes fell through and Carolina happily signed him at a low-dollar contract hit at $1.675 million for one season. Having even more help around him now, he is in a good position to have another nice offensive season. Carolina knows how to play to his strengths and have a deep defense corps.

Brady Skjei - D

Only six defensemen have scored more than 20 goals over the past two seasons and Brady Skjei is one of them. It has been interesting to watch his career revival since being acquired from the Rangers in early 2020. He came to the team as a large, physical defenseman who could skate well but not provide much value outside of the penalty kill. As he got more acclimated to the system, the rest of his game started to come around. He became a very solid top-four defenseman who could handle the tough matchups alongside Brett Pesce and gave the Canes two pairs they can trust against anybody. The real surprise, however, was the offense. Skjei became one of the team’s best shooters, always getting room to pick a corner off the rush or on a cycle from the left faceoff circle. He doubled his career high in goals and tied a Carolina record for goals by a defenseman. It’s tough to see this carrying over, especially with Orlov in the fold now, and the goal-scoring covered up some of the high-risk parts of his game. Not enough that he should be demoted to the third pair, but the depth Carolina has on defense might force him into a more low-leverage role.

Goaltending

Frederik Andersen - G

Few goaltenders had better bounce-back years than veteran netminder Frederik Andersen upon his arrival in Carolina. He was one-half of a somewhat surprising tandem brought on board by the Hurricanes in the 2021 off-season, brought on after a disappointing end to his career in Toronto to tandem with fellow veteran Antti Raanta after the Hurricanes all but cleaned house in net. The team’s gamble paid off, with Andersen posting one of his best statistical seasons in his first full year in Raleigh – and although he wasn’t quite able to replicate that this past year, it’s still not quite time to panic for the Hurricanes as they consider one more year of Andersen at the helm.

He remains the sturdier veteran option for Carolina despite posting the worst numbers of the team’s three 2022-23 netminders. Those numbers, though, looked less like a legitimate regression and more like the result of a little bit of fatigue, a little bit of bad luck, and a pinch of expected aging slowing him down. Andersen is still a goaltender who does well making the first move, pushing out to get set for a shot in advance and recovering to his feet rather than spending the bulk of his time on his knees. But his edges have slowed a hair in the last few years, and he’s never quite been able to thrive making desperation saves through traffic – so as his game has matured over the years, he’s become less likely to steal saves when his sightlines are taken away on defensive breakdowns. Luckily, the Carolina system works well in his favor, so he should still be a good option for the Hurricanes as they transition to Pyotr Kotchetkov. But he no longer has a clear statistical advantage over Antti Raanta as the option the Hurricanes should turn to if they need to choose between one or the other; if anything, his security with the Hurricanes relies more on Raanta’s ever-questionable health than on his own performances.

Projected starts: 30-35

Antti Raanta - G

There isn’t much left to say for Antti Raanta at this point that hasn’t already been said. The Finnish netminder might be the most injury-prone workhorse in the league; he’s guaranteed to go down with at least one or two scrapes and bruises every year but is perhaps the most likely veteran in the entire NHL to maintain his good numbers whether he’s missed a week or half a season with an injury. Last season was a case in point; even though he only appeared in 27 games all year, he was still Carolina’s strongest statistical performer and put up his seventh year with at least a .910 unadjusted save percentage. He still plays a reliable, consistent style that challenges skaters to look for holes in his coverage and then utilizes quick recoveries and effective hands to close them off once the puck has left someone’s stick. And like every other year, he’s still only as reliable as his body; while Carolina almost certainly wishes they could use him as a steady presence to usher Kotchetkov into the NHL full-time, he’s failed to string together a lengthy enough healthy stretch in any season for nearly his entire decade-long career for any GM to feel comfortable keeping him as their only veteran option. He’s effective to have around, especially if the Hurricanes are worried that Andersen may be headed for another season of regression – but unless they’re confident Kotchetkov can stay in the NHL full-time and put up a 45-plus game campaign, they can’t keep Raanta as their only piece of the puzzle.

Projected starts: 35-40

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS – A real test of talent vs. experience and coaching

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 02 May 2023 21:01:38 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 12: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) scores a goal during the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on March 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

Both teams won their first round series in somewhat unconventional fashion. The Devils overcame losing their first two games on home ice to take down the Rangers, making the bold switch to rookie Akira Schmid in goal. Carolina, meanwhile, took care of the Islanders in six games despite getting outscored at five-on-five. They played a close series, keeping the games tight and leaning on their power play when they needed to. Unfortunately, they’re also down another top-six forward after Teuvo Teravainen suffered a broken wrist in Game 2, which means their forward corps is in even more of an “all hands on deck” situation now.

They also took somewhat of a bold approach in goal, rolling with Antti Raanta for the first five games before making the switch to the oft-injured Frederik Andersen in the series clincher. The gamble paid off, as Andersen shut the door for Carolina in Game 6 and gave them an opportunity to complete their comeback. It makes an interesting decision for Game 1, but the Hurricanes have never been afraid to rotate goalies and this situation will be no different. That being said, this type of setup is easier in the regular season when it’s easier to shake off one loss and move on. Making the wrong call in a playoff series is obviously a different story, especially on a team like Carolina where scoring one goal is like trying to dig up gold in the mountains.

The second round has also been a common roadblock for Brind’Amour’s Canes, reaching this point the past two seasons and losing both times despite having the home ice advantage. The road for them is a little easier this year with the Rangers out and Boston going home in stunning fashion, but it’s actually tougher because the East is truly open season now. The Devils have spent years building up this talented core and look like they are ready to take the next step. Jack Hughes had a superstar caliber season, Nico Hischier will create matchup problems against a depleted forward corps and Dougie Hamilton is out to show Carolina he is a playoff performer and one they let get away.

The Devils also showed some real resilience in the first round. There are veterans on the roster, but it’s also this group’s first time in the playoffs in a while, or in their career in the case of Jack Hughes. There were some questions on if the moment was too big for them after dropping the first two games at home in blowout fashion. They responded by winning three straight and closing out the series in a dominant Game 7. It’s one thing to win, but to shutout a team that had you on the mat not even two weeks ago shows some real growth in how this team faces adversity. Carolina had a lot of moments like this early in their playoff career and it led them all the way to the Conference Final in Brind’Amour’s first year. The Devils are looking to go on a similar run.

The Matchup

In a normal situation, the big question around the Hurricanes is can they get enough goals, and will anybody step up when the games get tight? This series might be a little different because they’re going up against one of the most potent rush offenses in the NHL. The Devils are a team that carried the puck in at will all season and were one of the few teams in the playoffs who could do this in the first round. They scored a couple of big goals against the Rangers off controlled entries, including one in overtime and are capable of creating offense from a controlled breakout sequence. Dougie Hamilton and John Marino are very good at doing this and will usually give their forwards a great pass on the tape to help them break structure.

Heck of a rush from a standstill. pic.twitter.com/uoHHDxB1Uo

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) March 17, 2023

This should create problems for Carolina, but their defense is a little more robust than what they saw against the Rangers. Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns are more likely to get in your face and angle you off to the boards as opposed to Lindgren or Trouba who are going to shadow you into the zone and block shots. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce play more similar to the Rangers, using the “bend but don’t break” approach and will be the pair Jersey should target if they want to put Carolina in an open hole. This was a rock-solid duo for Carolina during the regular season but playing the tough matchups for 82 games takes a toll on you around this time of year. The number of hits they’ve taken looked like it started to add up in the Islanders series, as they were on the ice for six of the Isles 11 goals at five-on-five. The Devils might not have the scoring depth they did earlier in the season, but they can make this pair work a lot if they get a step on them at the blue line and create some tough situations for Carolina to defend. The saving grace for Carolina is their third pair is very mobile and capable of handling defensive minutes. Shayne Gostisbehere is still looking for his first power play point, but his play at five-on-five has been spectacular and gives Carolina an extra layer during the 3^rd/4^th line shifts.

As for where Carolina’s goals are going to come from, the answer is also their defense corps. They’ve always acted as more of a complement to the forwards, and this is even more true with the injuries Carolina has up front. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin were more active in the Isles series than they were all season (which is saying something for Burns) and you can look for them to catch New Jersey’s forwards out of position with how much attention they draw high in the zone. They’re also super aggressive with pinching to keep pucks in, which can go both ways with how much New Jersey loves to attack in transition. Counterattacks are what killed the Hurricanes against the Rangers last year and it’s something the Devils will go to school on. Hughes, Hischier, Meier all have the talent to make them pay on this and they also got some goals from their depth lines in the Rangers series. The more times they burn Carolina off counterattacks, the more risk-adverse and point-shot heavy the Hurricanes become, so planting the seed of doubt in their heads early will play a huge factor. Granted, this also involves some risk for the Devils with having the forwards challenge the points and fly the zone. It opens them up to more shots and chances against but that’s a risk you might be willing to take against Carolina.

The X Factor

Both teams managed to advance in the first round despite limited or no production from some of their top players. Timo Meier managed an astonishing zero points in 7 games despite leading the team in scoring chances and playing very well in the Rangers series. It’s only a matter of time until he starts to see some results, but the playoffs can be cruel. The Hurricanes style of defending can also be the best or the worst thing for him because they do not mind giving up chances from close-range as long as the shooter doesn’t have a lot of room to make a move. Meier specializes in going to the net and scoring on brute force, but these are generally lower-percentage plays compared to shots with movement and space. Something has to give.

As for the Hurricanes, they didn’t get much from their leading scorer Martin Necas, scoring only one power play goal all series and looking lost at five-on-five. If the series starts to open up to the Devils terms, Necas is the guy they need to make a difference and he (along with Jesperi Kotkaniemi) struggled with that in the first round. The Devils defensive structure might be a little easier to break than the Islanders physical style, but the playoffs have been tough for Necas in his career. This line in particular was Carolina’s worst against the Islanders, and they spent more time running around in their own zone instead of playing with the puck. When they did get the puck, it was often thrown away in the neutral zone or on a nothing play on the cycle. They showed some flashes of what makes them so dangerous in Game 1, so Carolina is hoping they can see some of this come to life because they will be needed with the Devils having the advantage in forward depth.

The Prediction

This is going to be a real test of talent vs. experience and coaching because the Devils have the clear advantage in the former. The latter is where Carolina can create an advantage. Lindy Ruff made a questionable lineup decision in scratching Jonas Siegenthaler after the Devils lost Game 1 against New York and the physical presence Carolina has could force them into more situations like that. When you’re undermanned, you have to make the most out of the tools you’re given. Carolina’s been able to do that so far, getting goals from the likes of Paul Stastny, Jesper Fast and Mackenzie MacEachern. Jersey should be licking their chops at the forward lines they can roll out against that group, but Carolina’s defensive play is enough to turn most games into a coin-flip. Even if they fall behind, they can own the boards and the territorial play enough to where it’s a tie or a one-goal game. Then it’s just a matter of who can score that big goal when it matters.

Carolina takes a couple gut-punches in this series but takes it in six.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Mirror images of each other, goals will be hard to find

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 16 Apr 2023 15:51:30 +0000

ELMONT, NY - JANUARY 21: Carolina Hurricanes Center Jordan Staal (11) takes a shot on New York Islanders Goalie Ilya Sorokin (30) during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islander on January 21, 2023, at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting:

Sometimes the playoffs can be more of a game of “what have you done for me lately?” Teams can secure their spot before American Thanksgiving and coast the rest of the way while others have to put long winning streaks together in March just to make the dance. This is the case in this first round matchup between the Hurricanes and the Islanders. The Islanders ended the season a high note by clinching a playoff spot in Game 82. They also have reinforcements on the way with Mathew Barzal returning. Carolina, despite winning the Metro, is limping into the playoffs.

Riding high for most of the year, the Hurricanes have struggled mightily since the trade deadline, just barely posting a .500 record in their past 25 games and having question marks all over the roster. They are one of only two playoff teams to have a negative goal differential at five-on-five over their last 25 games, have one of the worst team shooting percentages in the league over that span and aren’t getting any help from the injured list with Andrei Svechnikov going down with an ACL tear just after they opted to not make any major roster tweaks at the trade deadline.

Carolina might be the division winner, but they’re the one with more questions on their roster, which extends to the goalies as neither Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta nor Pyotr Kochetkov has established themselves as the “go-to guy.” Meanwhile, the Isles are getting their star player back and have a sure-thing in net with Ilya Sorokin. If there was an easy upset pick, this would be it.

Although every team that has played the Hurricanes knows that nothing ever comes easy against them, and it will be a grind even if the vibes are all on New York’s side coming in.

The Matchup:

This is somewhat of an ideal first round matchup because both teams are almost mirror images of each other. Both rely more on their team play and goal-scoring by-committee rather than having one star do all the work. They’re also among the stingiest teams in the league, although with somewhat different approaches. The Isles don’t give up a lot of goals, but they do spend a lot of time in their zone and will give up a high number of shots, leaning on Sorokin more than they would like to some nights. Carolina, on the other hand, is all about territorial dominance. They wear teams down in the offensive zone and play more of an aggressive, pressure-based game in the defensive zone to keep the workload light for their goaltenders.

The Islanders were arguably the best matchup for Carolina for this exact reason. They want to spend time on the attack and the Isles will probably give it to them. It’s also a tough matchup for them because the Islanders play a similar style to what did them in against the Rangers. They might not have finishing talent, but the Islanders can counter-attack when the opportunity presents itself. Most of their forwards are good shooters who can strike on limited opportunities and the returning Barzal along with newcomer Engvall give them some puck-carriers who will push for offense. Carolina saw that a little earlier in the season.

Both of these teams love to dump the puck in, especially the Islanders. Both defenses know this and will probably cheat to get a head start on retrieving the puck, so a little deception can go a long way to creating some extra chances. Carolina seems especially vulnerable to that with how shaky their goaltending has been, but they did burn the Islanders in this same game with a couple rush goals of their own.

Squeezing out a couple extra rush chances here and there could go a long way for Carolina, as the Islanders aren’t going to try to attack in transition unless they force a turnover and there’s going to be opportunities for Carolina to counter off failed clears in the neutral zone. Finishing their chances when they get an open look on Sorokin is going to be the tough part and the Isles method of baiting you into an extra pass makes it tougher.

This is where the Islanders stingy defense can be taken advantage of by good passing teams and where the Hurricanes defense corps gives them an edge. They have the second highest scoring defense in the league with Brent Burns and Brady Skjei both scoring 15+ goals a piece and newcomer Shayne Gostisbehere giving them a dynamic passing option from up high. With most of this series being played in the Islanders zone, it’s going to be less about Carolina creating a cumulative number of chances and more about getting one past Sorokin. This is where the games could get frustrating for Carolina if they fall behind because they’re such a shot-volume team and the Isles are content playing that game as long as they block or disrupt. Open ice is available, but it’s going to take a lot of patience and precision for Carolina to capitalize on it.

When the Isles are defending well, they don’t give you much. The slot is blocked off, the shooting lanes are challenged, and they want you to play hot potato with the puck in their own zone forever. It’s an exhausting style of defense, but it works against impatient teams.

This is why the Islanders give up more shots than your standard strong defensive team. They’re content with playing in their own zone for stretches because they stay disciplined with taking away the middle while also pressuring the points and the boards to force quick decisions. It can be exploited, though. Buffalo attempted to do so on a play from behind the net, but just missed on the pass and Pittsburgh also got a shot from the circles (albeit one that Sorokin saw the entire way). Other teams have also been able to capitalize on plays where the Isles get too aggressive with taking away the points.

Again, this isn’t something every team can pull off because it takes pinpoint passing and some risk from the attacking team. The Hurricanes aren’t a team that likes using a forward up high on cycles, unless it’s Sebastian Aho or Martin Necas taking it low-to-high on their own, but it’s something they might have to adjust to if their defense aren’t getting any shooting lanes. Still, they’re very standard with their offensive zone system. Everything goes-low-to-high with forwards crowding the net rather than looking for an extra pass, which could play into the Islanders hands if they get a lead. This is also the quicksand they got stuck in against the Rangers last year, so we will see if they make any adjustments.

X-Factors

This series could potentially have fewer than 15 goals scored at even strength over seven games, so special teams are going to be a major player. Neither team has had much going in this department. Carolina’s power play has been in the top-half of the league most of the year and has slipped back into the bottom-10 over the past two months. Gostisbehere gave them somewhat of a different look after the trade deadline, moving Brent Burns from the point to the right circle, but overall, they’ve struggled to find anything consistent with the man-advantage since losing Andrei Svechnikov. The Isles, meanwhile, have had one of the worst power plays in the league and are the fourth worst team in the league in goals scored with the man-advantage since the trade deadline. The only play they can setup with any consistency is Bo Horvat from the bumper position, so any success they have will be based on rebounds or how many shots Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock can get through, which is tough to do against a Carolina penalty kill that excels at taking away obvious shooting threats.

Something has to give here.

Prediction

This is looking like a seven-gamer. The Islanders have all the momentum on their side, but Carolina didn’t get to first in the division by being a bad team. They’ve also been a very good team in the opening round of the playoffs under Rod Brind’Amour, advancing in all four of his years as head coach (depending on how you want to view the bubble playoffs). The playoffs will be a grind for Carolina, but their five-on-five play should be enough to move them to the second round.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Difference makers in the final week of the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Apr 2023 19:01:41 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players that might make a difference in the final week of the season, including Alex Lyon, David Perron, and Thomas Novak, plus some keeper league options to consider.

#1 In a season with some unexpected goaltending performances, Florida getting clutch performances out of 30-year-old Alex Lyon is one of the bigger surprises. With the Panthers pushing for a playoff spot, and Sergei Bobrovsky injured, the job has fallen to Lyon. He stopped 56 of 58 shots in Thursday’s 7-2 win over Ottawa, marking his fifth straight win, and he has a .961 save percentage in those five starts.

#2 Veteran winger David Perron is finishing strong for a Red Wings squad that has generally been fading down the stretch. Perron has put up 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He is making the most of his opportunity on Detroit’s top line with Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik. That trio has been excellent, capturing 59.2% of expected goals and 68.1% of goals during five-on-five play.

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Nashville’s improbable push for a playoff spot has been due in no small part to the emergence of young players who have been thrust into bigger roles. Center Thomas Novak is still widely available in fantasy leagues, despite scoring 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in his past 26 games. The 25-year-old had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 27 games as a rookie last season, and started this season in the American Hockey League, so maybe it should not be surprising that he is so readily available, but his production deserves respect.

#4 On a lesser scale, Predators center Cody Glass has at least established his credentials as an NHL player and has contributed six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has been averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game since the trade deadline, and the Preds remain in the playoff hunt into the final week of the regular season.

#5 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 4-1 win against Minnesota, Penguins right winger Bryan Rust has finished strong in what has otherwise been a relatively disappointing season. The industrious winger has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 20 goals for the fourth consecutive season. Rust has scored on just 9.6% of his shots this season, his lowest mark since 2015-2016.

#6 After erupting for a career-high 35 goals last season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has 17 goals and 40 points heading into the final week of the regular season. However, he has been finding the scoresheet more frequently, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past 11 games, as he continues to thrive on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. That trio has controlled 66.8% of expected goals and 72.9% of goals during five-on-five play. If the Flames somehow manage to reach the postseason, a lot of credit will be due to that line.

#7 Last week, I hit on several St. Louis Blues players that are providing good value late in the season. Add one more this week: Alexei Toropchenko. The 23-year-old scored a goal in Thursday’s 3-2 win over the Rangers, giving him six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing nearly 14 minutes per game in his past six games.

#8 Consistency is sometimes elusive for the Rangers’ Kid Line, but Alexis Lafreniere has delivered seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games. He has scored 35 of his 39 points at even strength, the same as Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand, among others.

#9 The top five defensemen when it comes to goals this season are largely who one might expect to finish in that top tier – Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, and Cale Makar hold down four of the top five spots. Tied with Josi, and one goal ahead of Makar, is Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Brady Skjei who has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#10 Frequently a reluctant shooter, Blue Jackets center Jack Roslovic has put up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has 44 points (11 G, 33 A) on the season, one off the career-high 45 points that he produced last season. Roslovic is having some late season success with rookie Kent Johnson on his wing.

#11 The Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche are the only two teams that still have five games remaining on their respective regular-season schedules. For fantasy squads that need every possible edge, finding a few extra games can make a difference. A couple of Sabres worth considering:

Owen Power – Buffalo’s rookie defenseman has six assists in his past five games. There is a ceiling on his offensive upside as long as Rasmus Dahlin is quarterbacking the top power play unit, but five games from Power could offer more potential than three games from other defenders.

Casey Mittelstadt – With Tage Thompson working his way back from injury, the Sabres have kept Mittelstadt with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot more but has delivered nine assists in his past five games.

#12 And a couple of Avs that could offer a late season lift:

Samuel Girard – Although Devon Toews and Bowen Byram are even better options, especially when Cale Makar is missing games, Girard has four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past five games, giving him a career-high 35 points but he also has a career-high 111 blocked shots and his 64 hits is one away from his career best, set last season.

Evan Rodrigues – With Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, Rodrigues has the opportunity to skate on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen – a good place to ride their coattails to more points. When Rodrigues gets more ice time, the points have followed. He has 26 points (10 G, 16 A) in the 39 games in which he has played more than 17 minutes.

#13 The Top 10 scorers since the March 3 trade deadline, among players that were traded before the deadline:

Sammy Blais, St. Louis – 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 18 GP

Marcus Johansson, Minnesota – 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 GP

Timo Meier, New Jersey – 13 points (9 G, 4 A) in 18 GP

Rasmus Sandin, Washington – 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 15 GP

Jakub Vrana, St. Louis – 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in 17 GP

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis – 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Tyson Barrie, Nashville – 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 19 GP

Patrick Kane, N.Y. Rangers – 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in 15 GP

Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton – 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Nino Niederreiter, Winnipeg – 10 points (6 G, 4 A) in 17 GP

While players like Meier, Tarasenko, and Kane would have been rostered in most leagues, there was significant value to be found via unexpected sources. Blais is the most obvious, but Johansson, Sandin, and Vrana have seen a significant upgrade in their respective value since the deadline. Kane might have been the biggest name to move, but his production has been mediocre and he is nursing an injury, with an eye towards getting healthy for the postseason.

#14 If you’re looking for some keepers for next season, consider Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton of the Arizona Coyotes. Schmaltz has 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in his past 30 games and while he is not going to keep scoring on more than 22% of his shots, as he has during that hot stretch, he has a good thing going with Clayton Keller. Hayton has had similar success, putting up 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in his past 32 games and he has been generating more shots on goal, so he has not been as dependent on an inflated shooting percentage. The Coyotes should have some new faces up front next season, but Schmaltz and Hayton have shown in the second half of this season that they can be reliable offensive contributors.

#15 He has missed time following sports hernia surgery and has bizarrely seen his ice time cut this season but hold on to Winnipeg Jets right winger Nikolaj Ehlers. He has 36 points (12 G, 24 A) in 42 games but has played just 15:49 per game, a significant drop from the career-high 18:04 per game that he played last season. There could be changes in Winnipeg in the offseason, but Ehlers should be considered part of the solution there, with a bigger role than he has had in 2022-2023.

#16 A deeper cut for potential keepers for next season is Carolina Hurricanes center Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The 22-year-old pivot has scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in his past 18 games, lifting him to a modest career high of 39 points. This late surge does show some promise and Kotkaniemi should still be on his career ascent, even though he is wrapping up his fifth NHL season.

#17 While most fantasy managers would already be inclined to keep Florida Panthers winger Sam Reinhart, he is probably even more valuable than expected. Not only does Reinhart have 64 points (30 G, 34 A) in 79 games, but he has done this with a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.5%, which is very low for a scoring forward. That is the first time since 2017-2018 that it has been under 8.0%, so he is likely due to pick up more assists next season.

#18 On the surface, Ottawa Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a disappointing season, going from 41 goals in 2021-2022 to 26 goals this season. That does not mean that the 25-year-old sniper is not worth keeping for next season. His shooting percentage dropped to 10.1% this season, the second lowest mark of his career, but he generated 3.27 shots on goal per game this season, compared to 3.29 per game last season. A simple boost in shooting percentage could be enough for DeBrincat to get back to pushing for 40 goals. There is, admittedly, some uncertainty in where DeBrincat could play next season, as he is a restricted free agent due a high qualifying offer, but he is a good bet to be more productive in the 2023-2024 season.

#19 Known more for his defensive acumen, Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has still produced a career high 61 points (23 G, 38 A). The fascinating part is that Eriksson Ek is one of four players to have at least 10 fewer goals than their expected goals total on Natural Stat Trick. He has scored 23 goals with 34.45 expected goals, so it is reasonable to believe that there is even more offensive production possible. The other forwards to have missed their expected goals total by more than 10 are Carolina’s Stefan Noesen along with Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.

#20 Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid has run away with the scoring race, currently leading teammate Leon Draisaitl by 25 points. The last time a player won the scoring race by that wide a margin was in 1990-1991, when Wayne Gretzky had 32 more points than Brett Hull. McDavid has done this with massive power play production (69 of 148 points with the man advantage), so he has not even needed a lofty on-ice shooting percentage during five-on-five play. His on-ice shooting percentage of 9.4% is higher than last season but is still the second lowest mark of his career. This is all to say that even if the Oilers power play is not quite as dominant next season that McDavid still has some statistical wiggle room in his quest for another huge scoring season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.