Brandon Pirri – McKeen's Hockey

Against All Odds – Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:36:44 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Vegas Golden Knights inaugural season played out as if it was written and produced by Disney. While it is true that Vegas wasn’t your typical expansion team given the favorable expansion draft rules the NHL created for them, they still exceeded all expectations in their first season of existence.

Vegas excelled right from the start of the season. The Golden Knights suffered an incredibly unlikely string of goaltending injuries that culminated in Dylan Ferguson, who spent most of the season in the WHL, even getting a cameo between the pipes, but not even misfortune on that scale could do more than briefly slow them. Vegas posted a 51-24-7 record and then overwhelmed the Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, and Winnipeg Jets to claim the Western Conference title. Only the Washington Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final were finally able to break apart the Golden Knights’ attack and solve Marc-Andre Fleury to deny Vegas a championship in its very first season.

NO GOLDEN CONTRACTS – Vegas got to the Stanley Cup Final on the backs of players that were enjoying breakout or career years and several of them were also due contract extensions. That could have been a recipe for big paydays, but things considered, the Golden Knights have avoided handed out massive contracts.

William Karlsson

Jonathan Marchessault got the biggest payday with a six-year, $30 million extension that kicks in this season after he jumped from 30 goals and 51 points in 2016-17 to 27 goals and 75 points in 77 contests last season. The Golden Knights’ other offensive leader, William Karlsson, was handed a one-year, $5.25 million bridge contract as an RFA. That puts the onus on Karlsson to prove that he can at least come close to repeating his 43-goal, 78-point performance from 2017-18.

David Perron also set a career-high with 66 points while James Neal scored scored 25 goals, but Vegas allowed them to walk as unrestricted free agents. In their place though, Vegas signed UFA Paul Stastny to a three-year, $19.5 million deal.

On defense, Colin Miller was a standout in 2017-18 with 10 goals and 41 points in 82 games, up from 13 points in 2016-17. Vegas was still able to ink the RFA to a four-year, $15.5 million contract. That left Fleury with the biggest contract in terms of annual salary after the Golden Knights gave him a three-year, $21 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of course, out of all the Golden Knights’ leaders last season, Fleury was the one with the best resume coming into the 2017-18 campaign.

IS REGRESSION INEVITABLE? – It’s good that the Golden Knights didn’t go crazy when it came to re-signing the 2017-18 standouts because there is reason to believe that last season’s magic won’t be repeated.

Karlsson is the easiest player to pick on when arguing that key Golden Knights stars are due to regress. He had a 23.4% shooting percentage, which was the highest of the salary cap era (min. 150 SOG) and just screams unsustainable, especially from someone that had a 7.7% career shooting percentage prior to 2017-18. He also had a very high 5v5 expected goals differential and on-ice expected goals differential, which again are warning signs that he could regress. He’s far from the only person on Vegas with 5v5 expected goals differential and/or on-ice expected goals differentials that are flashing red lights. Marchessault, Brayden McNabb, Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt, and Erik Haula are also among those on that list.

On top of that, Vegas’ situation has been complicated by the announcement that Schmidt will serve a 20-game suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. While Schmidt was already on the list of players that are in danger of regressing offensively this season, he was counted on to eat 22:14 minutes per game in 2017-18 and missing him is still a big loss for Vegas.

OUTLOOK – Vegas managed to defy expectations last season, but the Golden Knights still have a lot to prove. They look like a team perfectly capable of making the playoffs, but not one that should be nearly as dominate as they were in 2017-18. The one X-Factor in all this is Erik Karlsson as Vegas has frequently popped up in trade rumors regarding him since the 2018 trade deadline. If the Golden Knights do manage to get him without meaningfully dipping into their NHL roster, then that could elevate them from being contenders for a playoff spot to serious Cup candidates again.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Week One

McKeen's Hockey — Mon, 19 Oct 2015 12:05:16 +0000

The waiver wire return for the 2015-16 season and with the first week of NHL games complete some players are already injured, some failed to make the team, and some are wetting the bed and need to be replaced. The Waiver wire in many fantasy leagues offers the easiest and sometimes best option to upgrade some dead weight on your roster. One trend to be wary of is rookies who have junior eligibility remaining like Daniel Sprong with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Sprong has made the Pens roster to start the season but is not eligible to play in the AHL. If Pittsburgh decide he is not ready he will go back to junior and be gone for the season.

1. Brandon Sutter - Vancouver Canucks, Right Wing/Centre 56% Owned

The 26 year old Sutter is now on his third team and has 500 career games played. Throughout his career he has typically been a third line centre but with Vancouver he has been seeing shifts on the top line with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Sutter has not looked out of place on the top line and if he can hold that spot for the season he is poised to have a career year. He is a point per game player after five games this season and has a shooting percentage of 13% which is well above his career average suggesting he can sustain fantasy relevance and a spot on a top line. Sutter is entering his prime years and has proven to be a durable player missing only three games in the past two seasons.

2. Brandon Pirri – Florida Panthers, Left Wing/Right Wing 46% Owned

Limited to just 49 games last season Pirri had a breakout 22 goal performance last season. Unfortunately, he only managed to add two assists to his point totals. This year, he has been playing on Florida’s second line with Nick Bjugstad and Reilly Smith and is producing; a goal and three assists in five games. His shooting percentage is well below career average at 7.7% which suggests that the goals are coming. His cap hit is also very attractive at $925k

3. Jeff Petry – Montreal Canadiens, Defence 32% owned

After the Habs rescued Petry from Edmonton at a deadline deal last season, he instantly rewarded them with seven points in 19 games and played a top four role. The Habs in turn rewarded Petry with a lucrative new contract. Saddled with a $5.5 million cap hit, Petry is still providing the Habs with good value as a second pairing defender and is seeing time on both special team units and both his points have come with the man advantage. If you can afford him, or are not in a capped league and need a defenceman, you will be hard pressed to find a better option on the waiver wire than Petry.

4. Tobias Rieder – Arizona Coyotes, Left Wing 37% owned

After a successful rookie season in the fantasy hockey desert, Rieder is off to a hot start in his sophomore season playing on the second line with Martin Hanzal and Max Domi. Rieder has found some early production with five points in five games as the Coyotes are off to a hot start. It is unlikely either the Coyotes or Rieder will maintain this pace, so he represents a good short term solution while his line is hot.

5. Jimmy Hayes – Boston Bruins, Right Wing 36% owned

Hayes only has points in one of his five games so far this season, but it was a four point night! Hayes is playing on a young but talented line with Ryan Spooner and Brett Connolly on the third line and should not draw the opposition’s better defensive line. Hayes has struggled with consistency but the 25 year old has a new contract and the faith of Bruins management as he enters his prime. He is a breakout candidate.

6. Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues, Defence 40% owned

Super sleeper Colton Parayko has only managed to post two goals (both in the same game) but is one of the best kept secrets in the NHL. The Blues scouts did a great job finding Parayko and keeping him under the radar as he has come from nowhere. Don’t sleep on the player who is the early favorite to be this years John Klingberg as he has been drawing rave reviews since training camp.

7. Ben Hutton – Vancouver Canucks, Defence 31% owned

Speaking of super sleeper players to come from nowhere, Huton impressed Canucks management so much at training camp he forced himself onto the roster despite being minor eligible. The move forced the Canucks to expose Frank Corrado to waivers and he was claimed by Toronto. Corrado is a highly regarded prospect so it speaks volumes to how high the Canucks are on Hutton.

All ownership numbers are based on Fantrax leagues

LUONGO WAY HOME

McKeen's Hockey — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 21:42:51 +0000

For the second season in a row, the Florida Panthers finished second last overall in the NHL. Their fantasy value was poor featuring a 2.29 goal per game offense which was 29th overall and a pitiful 10% power play conversion rate which was dead last. Brad Boyes was the leading goal scorer with only 21 goals and the only one on the team. Nick Bjugstad led the team in points with only 38.

Florida did win the draft lottery however and with the first overall pick selected future franchise defender Aaron Ekblad who joins an impressive young core featuring Alex Barkov, Jon Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, Brandon Pirri, and Erik Gudbranson who are all already entrenched in top roles with the Panthers.

The future depth is even deeper with a strong defensive group featuring Boston College stars Mike Matheson and Ian McCoshen as well as Alex Pertovic. Up front Vincent Trocheck, Quinton Howden and Rocco Grimaldi will all try to crack the NHL roster as soon as this season as well.

GM Dale Tallon has added veteran leadership to guide this young team with the return of star goalie Roberto Luongo and a pair of his former Cup winners from Chicago Brian Campbell and this season’s addition Dave Bolland.

The future is bright for the Panthers and so is the fantasy value within their roster. Veterans like Scottie Upshall, Brad Boyes, Sean Bergenheim and Tomas Kopecky have very limited value, and only in late rounds in deeper pools. There are plenty of fantasy keepers to choose from, but their full value upside may still be a few years away.

We have posted player profiles of the following: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Jussi Jokinen, Nick Bjugstad, Sean Bergenheim, Tomas Fleischmann, Brad Boyes, Scottie Upshall, Brandon Pirri, Brian Campbell, Dimitri Kulikov, Roberto Luongo

NHL trade deadline fantasy review

Peter Harling — Fri, 07 Mar 2014 14:32:51 +0000

The NHL trade deadline is the second most exciting hockey day of the year, second only to the fantasy draft.

Most fantasy leagues have a trade deadline of their own, and the fallout of the NHL trades weighs heavy on what happens in your fantasy trades.

To help make sense of it all let’s look at some of the players who benefit, and some who’s value hurt from the NHL trade deadline

Increasing Value

Marian Gaborik, LA Kings

To start his tenure in LA, Gaborik will play on a line with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. This should give him a boost, as well the Kings anemic offence. Gaborik has slightly struggled to produce offensively in Columbus this season, partially due to injuries. Injuries will always be a concern with Gaborik who is scheduled to be a UFA this summer. It is difficult to gauge what type of contract he can command, but in the range of $6 million is not out of the question. With his age, susceptibility to injuries and uncertainty of his contract, this could be a sell high opportunity for some one looking at Gaborik for a playoff run.

Lee Stempniak, Pittsburgh Penguins

Often players enjoy a “honeymoon period” when they join a new team. The streaky Stempniak personifies this and with the Dupuis injury, he may see time on a line with Sidney Crosby. He went on a tear after joining Phoenix from Toronto and is only 30% owned in Fantrax leagues. He could be a sneaky great waiver or free agent pick up.

Andrej Meszaros, Boston Bruins

Injuries have cost him his top four pairing rankings and the Flyers have given up on him. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli is familiar with Meszaros from their time in Ottawa and he played in Sochi with the Czech team with Zdeno Chara. The pair looked good together and with the injury to Denis Sidenberg the Bruins need a top four option. Meszaros could be it. Or he could be the next Tomas Kaberle. Given Meszaros is only 28 and has managed 17 points in only 38 games I think he is worth the risk.

Ales Hemsky, Ottawa Senators

Hemsky was once considered the future of the Edmonton Oilers. But that was a long time ago it seems and now the Oilers belong to Taylor Hall, RNH and Jordan Eberle. Hemsky is a highly talented player who desperately needed a fresh start on a new team with a top six opportunity. Expect the Sens to try desperately to find some chemistry between Hemsky with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek in an attempt to sneak into the playoffs. If the experiment is successful, the trio could be lightning in a bottle and fantasy hockey gravy.

Ryan Miller, St. Louis Blues

All season long this trade was highly speculated and final came to fruition. Miller had been having a spectacular season with the Sabres, his win stats do not support it but the eye test does not lie. Maybe you can catch a Miller owner sleeping and snag him quick. Now that he is a member of the Blues expect the number of saves to drop, and the wins and shut outs to pile up. It is also reasonable to expect Miller to resign with the Blues as well for keeper leagues.

Jhonas Enroth, Buffalo Sabres

With the trade of Miller (and Halak) the door has never been more open for the starting position in Buffalo. Enroth will battle with Neuvirth for the job. Neuvirth has had chances in Washington and failed to seize the job where as this is Enroths first kick at the can. On a poor Buffalo team this season, he has a GAA of 2.9 and a save % of .911 which is comparable to Millers 2.71 GAA, and .923 save %

Brandon Pirri, Florida Panthers

Former Chicago and current Florida GM Dale Tallon is very familiar with the upside of Brandon Pirri. Pirri was buried behind the depth of the Stanley Cup Champions deep roster, but will be given an opportunity to blossom in Florida. In 29 games ha has only 11 points, but has only played an average of 12:10 minutes per game. Pirri played his first game on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau and he is only 39% owned. Another player worth a pick up if he is available.

Joni Ortio, Calgary Flames

Ortio was not traded at the deadline, but Reto Berra was. With Karri Ramo still injured that makes Ortio the current starting goalie in Calgary. Ortio is only 14% owned this week.

Decreasing in Value

Thomas Vanek, Montreal Canadiens

Vanek had an embarrassing Olympic performance. He is a streaky scorer will not be playing with John Tavares anymore. With a cap hit north of $7 million and heading to free agency, I would not touch Vanek with your ten foot pole.

Martin St. Louis, New York Rangers

St. Louis will still score and provide offense, but expect a slight decline now he is not on the high flying Lightning, and is no longer with Stamkos.

Tim Thomas, Dallas Stars

Thomas was the starting goalie in Florida when healthy. It will be difficult for him to usurp Kari Lehtonen in Dallas and see regular starts. On the bright side, when he does play his stats should be much better as the Stars are a much better team.

Dustin Penner, Washington Capitals

Penner may not respond well to being traded from Anaheim where the team was extremely successful and he was playing on the Getzlaf – Perry line and enjoying individual success. Penner is traditionally a streaky scorer subject to long droughts of indifferent play and motivational issues. This could be project that blows up on the Caps, don’t make the same mistake.

Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

The addition of Jaroslav Halak in Washington ends the rotating three man goalie circus. Halak will be the starting goalie and Holtby will be the backup. The only saving grace for Holtby could be Halak is a UFA this off season, but it looks like the Caps have made a decision on Holtby.

Rene Bourque, Montreal Canadiens

Bourque has struggled this season and his value continues to decline. The addition of Vanek could see Bourque see more time in the press box and fourth line which all but kills his value.