Brandon TANEV – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:12:21 +0000

REVIEW: Unlike Vegas’ amazing run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season, Seattle had a miserable first NHL campaign, but any Kraken fans who were prepared for a long, painful road to competitiveness were pleasantly surprised when Seattle posted a 46-28-8 record in 2022-23. Seattle turnaround was fueled by the squad scoring 73 additional goals compared to the prior year, flipping them from being among the worst teams offensively to one of the best. Rather than be led by some new acquisition, their scoring renaissance was fueled by returning Kraken players Jared McCann, Matthew Beniers and Jaden Schwartz combining to score an extra 47 goals more than the trio mustered in 2021-22. At the same time, defenseman Vince Dunn shattered his previous career-high of 35 points by contributing 14 goals and 50 assists. Seattle’s goaltenders were still a problem, as evidenced by their combined .890 save percentage, but the Kraken ranked seventh in 5-on-5 expected goals against (163.59), which kept the team defensively above water despite that poor netminding. Not satisfied with merely making the playoffs, Seattle managed to earn its first playoff series win by besting Colorado in seven games before falling to Dallas in the second round.

What’s Changed? Forward Daniel Sprong, who had 21 goals last season, and goaltender Martin Jones left as free agents. Jones’ departure opens the door for Joey Daccord to compete with Philipp Grubauer for starts. Other than that, the team figures to be largely the same.

What would success look like? With the Kraken’s existing forward core, they should challenge for a playoff spot again, but what would take this team to the next level would be a resurgence from Grubauer. Although the goaltender has struggled over his first two campaigns with Seattle, he was once an amazing netminder, posting a .920 save percentage over his first 214 career NHL contests. He briefly regained his form when facing his former team, the Avalanche, in the first round and was a huge part of that series victory. Grubauer didn’t look as impressive against Dallas, but maybe there’s still hope for the 31-year-old.

What could go wrong? McCann is in danger of regressing after scoring a career high with 40 goals in 79 contests last season, particularly because his 19.0 shooting percentage was well above his 12.1% career average. It’s also possible that Seattle’s offensive prowess last year was something of a perfect storm, given that its top five scorers and six of its top seven were able to play at least 79 games. Sprong being limited to 66 contests was the only significant setback the Kraken suffered on the injury front last year. They might not be as fortunate two seasons in a row.

Top Breakout Candidate: Beniers, Seattle’s first ever pick and the second overall selection in the 2021 draft, broke out with 57 points last season. Will Shane Wright, taken fourth overall in 2022, follow in his footsteps this year? Wright could develop into a superb two-way forward in the vein of the now retired Patrice Bergeron. Although Wright was unable to stick with Seattle last year, he got some more seasoning in the OHL and AHL and seems poised to make a serious run at a middle-six spot during training camp.

Forwards

Matthew Beniers

Matty Beniers was drafted second overall in 2021 and was the first ever draft pick of the Seattle Kraken. After finishing up his 2021-22 season at the University of Michigan, Beniers would play 10 games with the Kraken where he scored three goals and six assists. That rolled into his rookie season in 2022-23 where he scored 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games, winning the Calder Trophy as the rookie of the year by a healthy margin. He has an excellent shot, finishing at a rate of 16.3% so far in his career. Plus, he can use both his big frame and stick skills to excel in tight spaces. Additionally, he is an exceptionally disciplined player, only taking one minor penalty last season, helping him finish fourth in the league in penalty differential. Heading into his sophomore season, Beniers will want to be the one to help the Kraken crack their powerplay woes and he’d love to improve at faceoffs. His 42.2% faceoff win percentage so far in his career is abysmal. If he can keep growing, the 20-year-old who already has a well-crafted game, could become one of the best two-way centers in the NHL.

Jared McCann

The days of Jared McCann being a castaway are over. After being tossed around from Vancouver to Florida to Pittsburgh, McCann was used as a pawn to protect Toronto’s roster in the NHL Expansion Draft. In his first season in Seattle, McCann recorded a career-high 50 points with 27 goals and 23 assists. He went ahead and followed that up with 40 goals and 30 assists last season, both career-highs again. At 27 years old, McCann has found his spot as a first line scoring winger with an up-and-coming Kraken team. He finished fourth behind Pastrnak, McDavid, and Rantanen in even strength goals with 30. McCann was also one of the only bright spots on the Kraken powerplay, leading them with seven goals and 16 points in just over 200 minutes. While there are doubts that he can finish at such a high rate again, ending last season with a 19% shooting percentage, he has shown throughout his career that he can also help his teammates finish well too. Plus, if the Kraken ever figure out their powerplay woes, he will be the one to receive the greatest benefit as the Kraken’s go-to shooter on the man advantage.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

After a career-high 57 points in 80 games in 2021-22, the Columbus Blue Jackets decided that Oliver Bjorkstrand was a luxury that they could no longer afford due to cap constraints and sent him to Seattle. Bjorkstrand finished his first season with the Kraken with his fourth 20-goal season. The six-foot right-handed winger is an excellent forechecker, wreaking havoc on opponents trying to make their way up the ice. On a deeper Kraken team, he is able to dial in to his specific skill set. Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff placed him largely alongside Yanni Gourde and waiver-wire pick-up Eeli Tolvanen. The trio of more tactical forwards are tasked with keeping the ice tilting in the Kraken’s favor. In their time together, the line had a 56% share of shot attempts and outscored opponents 24 to 16. Bjorkstrand also saw 189 minutes on the powerplay last season, splitting time between units. The Kraken powerplay has struggled in its two years of existence, and Bjorkstrand was a part of that last season. If Bjorkstrand wants a shot at another career year this season, he will need to be a part of a growth in the Kraken powerplay in 2023-24.

Jordan Eberle

The 33-year-old winger played his part in a phenomenal offensive year for the Seattle Kraken, scoring 20 goals and adding 43 assists. Eberle offers a veteran presence alongside Matty Beniers and Jared McCann, in which the former won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, while the latter scored 40 goals for the first time in his career. Eberle has been given offensive deployment most of his career, and Dave Hakstol and the Seattle Kraken coaching staff has amplified that since arriving on the scene in the fall of 2021. He has seen 15% of his 5-on-5 shifts start in the offensive zone with the Kraken, which is 2% higher than his career average. He has also continued to see high usage on the powerplay as he continues to get more than two minutes of powerplay time per game. The only time he has fallen short of that number was in the 2017-18 season with the New York Islanders when he was only on the ice for 1.93 powerplay minutes per game that season. As long as Eberle continues to see the offensive usage he does now, he should continue to age with reasonable production.

Yanni Gourde

As the Kraken’s pick in the NHL Expansion Draft, Yanni Gourde brought a sense of personality and culture to the Kraken locker room. Although he stands at just 5’ 9”, the Quebec-native made his way into the NHL as a scrappy forward. It was the way he made his way into a deep Tampa Bay Lightning lineup at 25 years old, and it’s the way he is continuing to be useful at 31 years old. Gourde battles hard in all three zones, especially on opponents trying to exit their zone. His level of detail is why he can take on tough matchups and tilt the ice in his team’s favor. The only Kraken forwards who started a lower percentage of their shifts at 5-on-5 in the offensive zone were Andre Burakovsky and Ryan Donato. Going along with his defensive usage, Gourde was also on the ice for 164 shorthanded minutes last season, behind only Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev. That was the most time that Gourde had spent penalty killing in a season in his career, as the Kraken substituted his powerplay time for penalty killing time. One should expect more of the same of that usage this season but watch out for a bounce-back in his goal scoring with his shooting percentage regressing (9.93% last season vs career 14.5%).

Andre Burakovsky

After a revival of his career in Colorado, notching 61 goals and 89 assists in 191 games, Burakovskly tested unrestricted free agency where he elected to sign with the Seattle Kraken. The Colorado Avalanche had their eye on Burakovsky for his transition skills and shot. After a pair of disappointing 25-point seasons with the Capitals, that may have been hard to spot at the time. With the Kraken, Burakovsky continued to build on the offensive success he was having in Colorado, scoring 39 points in 49 games. However, a lower body injury in February would cause him to miss the rest of the season. Burakovsky found his home alongside Alex Wennberg, a forward who is responsible defensively and can help with the starting phases of breakouts deep in the zone. When he was in the lineup, he also saw time on the top unit. While he can make poor decisions at times, his offensive versatility makes him a valuable asset. The Kraken are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he is one of the more skilled forwards on their roster. Given their counterattacking style, they could use his ability to create offense off of the rush.

Alex Wennberg

After a promising start to his career, scoring 59 points in 80 games in 2016-17, Wennberg’s offense would fizzle out in the remainder of his time in Columbus and Florida. The 6’ 2” Swede has great size and playmaking abilities, but his lack of physicality and mentality to shoot the puck left prior coaches wanting more. Of the 371 forwards who played 500 or more minutes at 5-on-5 last season, only two forwards had a lower rate of individual shot attempts. Of course, that leads to a low rate of goal scoring and point production. He has scored 24 goals in his first 162 games with the Kraken, but there is always the risk something like 2018-19 happens again where he finishes with two goals in 75 games, shooting 3.1%. However, it’s clear that Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff love Wennberg. He was the top penalty killing option for them along with 186 minutes of powerplay time. Ultimately, the Kraken’s use of him as a dependable, defensively responsible forward will hurt his box score stats, but that is also important for helping other players on the team blossom.

Eeli Tolvanen

A first round pick in 2017, the 5’ 10” Finnish forward struggled to make a mark with the Nashville Predators. In 135 games between the 2017-18 season and last season, Tolvanen accumulated only 25 goals and 26 points with the Predators. On December 11th, 2022, Nashville placed Tolvanen on waivers where he was picked up by the Kraken. Over the remainder of the season with the Kraken, Tolvanen would score 16 goals and 11 assists. Some credit must be given to the Seattle Kraken organization who were committed to his success. He would spend 87.5% of his 5-on-5 time with Yanni Gourde, and 70.0% with Oliver Bjorkstrand. Having the opportunity to play with talented players who are experienced alleviated some of the pressure that was resting on his shoulders. His linemates also opened up space for him that he was able to take full advantage of. For a 24-year-old winger, Tolvanen already has a well-rounded defensive game to go along with his above-average shot. But he wasn’t exactly the play-driver that he would’ve needed to be in Nashville in order to succeed there. Alongside play-drivers who need some help finishing, Tolvanen is the perfect complementary piece that we saw in the latter two-thirds of the 2022-23 season.

Jaden Schwartz

After missing most of the Seattle Kraken’s inaugural season, Jaden Schwartz returned with a much healthier year, getting on the ice for 71 games in 2022-23. Any worries that his hand injury that he suffered in January of 2022 would hold him back seem to be alleviated as Schwartz scored 21 goals on 167 shots on goal, a finishing rate of 12.6%. Furthermore, he’s never been much of a shoot-first forward. He only ranked 161^st among regular forwards in the rate he attempted to shoot the puck at 5-on-5 last season, a large chunk of which were blocked. He’s known mostly for being dependable at most things, but not elite at any one thing. This can be reflected both in his lack of consistent linemates, as the coaching staff feels comfortable playing him with many different forwards, but also his quality of competition. Schwartz faced the third-hardest competition at 5-on-5 among Kraken forwards last season in terms of weighted-average time-on-ice of opponents. At 31 years old, it’s clear that Schwartz won’t blow you out of the water with his box score stats. He has only cleared 60 points once in his career. Despite playing on the number one 5-on-5 offense in the league last season and getting a hefty dose of powerplay time, he was not on track to add another 60-point season. He has instead reverted to being a dependable piece for the coaching staff in the middle six.

Defense

Vince Dunn

Vince Dunn had a breakout 2022-23 campaign scoring 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games for the Kraken. His 64-point total, which ranked tenth among defensemen last season, close to doubled his previous career-high of 35 which he set in 2018-19 and 2021-22. While he did play most of his 5-on-5 minutes alongside Adam Larsson in the inaugural season for the Kraken, he was close to glued to his hip last season, spending 88.3% of those minutes with Larsson. Dunn, a player who is excellent at breaking out of the zone and has a well-developed offensive toolset, has the habit of making big mistakes from time to time. A steady defensive partner like Larsson helps bring the most out of Dunn. It also helped that he had a slightly more skilled forward core to support last season as well. And with Mark Giordano out of the picture, the first powerplay unit was his all year, and no one is set to take that role away from him. He may seem some regression this coming season after shooting 9.3%, but his elevated production should be the new normal for him.

Adam Larsson

Perhaps best known for being the player the Edmonton Oilers exchanged Taylor Hall for, Adam Larsson is a 6’ 3” staple on the back end. Last season, playing with Vince Dunn and a deep forward core that helped push the Kraken’s even strength offense to the best in the league, Larsson was able to achieve a new career-high 33 points in 82 games. The Swede won’t win you over for his offensive play, but rather his dependability. He is talented defensively, allowing his teammates to take risks at times knowing that he will clean it up. He also hasn’t missed a game since November of 2019. Larsson led the Kraken in shorthanded time on ice last season at 227 minutes, or 59.2% of the Kraken’s time shorthanded. His usage and unwavering commitment to defense also helped propel him to ninth in blocked shots last season, and fourth over the last three seasons. Adam Larsson is the guy that does the dirty jobs that no one else wants to do, and he does it well. He will likely find his way into the top 100 in points among defensemen just by his usage and will log a substantial amount of shorthanded time while blocking shots.

Jamie Oleksiak

The 6’ 7” defenseman requires special permission from the league for the length of his stick. Not only is that stick extraordinarily long, but it is also 120 flex. Whatever works for the 2011 first round pick as he scored nine goals on 76 shots on goal last season. The shooting percentage of 11.8% will be impossible for him to reproduce, but it speaks to the utter strangeness in his game. Oleksiak had also gotten hot before, scoring five goals on 33 shots in the 2016-17 season. But at times, Oleksiak gets cold, like his first season in Seattle where he only managed a single goal on 95 shots. His unpredictability is what makes him a fun player to follow. Last season, for the first time in his 11-season career, Oleksiak was a staple to the penalty kill. He was the left-handed defenseman that was deployed alongside Adam Larsson, a role that was previously unfilled. You may have assumed that a defenseman of his size would have played a major role on penalty kills before, but Oleksiak’s preferred play style is as unique as his numbers. He loves to jump up into plays, helping transition the puck like a forward, as opposed to sticking back and being sturdy. Perhaps that’s why he led the Kraken in defensive zone starts last season.

Justin Schultz

After a disappointing 2021-22 season where the Washington Capitals reduced his ice time from 19 minutes per game to 17 minutes per game, Justin Schultz made his way to the west coast where he played just a bit more time with the Seattle Kraken. The two-time Stanley Cup champion has aged out of his days of being a stud offensive defenseman to complement Kris Letang’s work. His 34 points with the Kraken last season was the highest point production he recorded in a season since scoring 51 points in the 2016-17 season with Pittsburgh. Not good enough to be a top-pairing offensive defenseman for most teams, Schultz finds himself in a bit of an odd spot, as most general managers would prefer to fill the bottom four spots with penalty killers or younger offensive defensemen. The Seattle Kraken were one of the few teams that had the perfect slot for him, and he found his way to a bounce back season alongside Jamie Oleksiak. While Vince Dunn is undoubtedly the top choice for the first powerplay unit, Schultz fills in nicely on the second unit. Luckily for Schultz, there isn’t much contention for that spot either. You can expect more of the same from Schultz in the final year of his contract.

Goaltending

Philipp Grubauer

The Seattle Kraken had one job for Philipp Grubauer last season – do better than the year before, and don’t crumble in the postseason. And while he didn’t make the kind of massive bounce-back that the team undoubtedly hoped for, he did complete his assignment; he dragged his save percentage up from the mid-.880’s to just shy of the .900 threshold, doubling his quality start percentage from the year before and creeping closer to the league average in goals saved above expected. He remained an underperformer from a pure monetary standpoint, especially given just how much money they’d handed him in free agency, but he climbed out of the basement enough to bring the rest of the team up with him.

Grubauer’s biggest problem now wasn’t that he looked like he was playing catch-up all year; unlike in his first season with the expansion franchise, he managed to hit crisper angles and corral more shots before allowing sloppy rebounds. While he really elevated his game in his good performances, though, Grubauer’s biggest issue became his consistency; he had a lot of elite games, he had an above-average number of absolute stinkers, and he put up almost zero games that fell in the in-between. There was no such thing for the German-born goaltender as a league-average performance; he gave games his everything or he nearly got chased from the net, and he continued to waffle between the two performances all the way to the last week of the regular season. That, in itself, is a reason for concern for Seattle; he proved he still has excellent games in the tank, but he didn’t prove he could deliver those with enough reliability to tab him as the number one and breathe a sigh of relief. He’ll need to take that final step forward this year if he wants to prove his contract was worth it for the Pacific Northwest club.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Stars Returning from Injury

Scott Cullen — Fri, 06 Jan 2023 20:43:29 +0000

RALEIGH, NC - JANUARY 05: Carolina Hurricanes Left Wing Max Pacioretty (67) warms up prior to the game between the Nashville Predators and the Carolina Hurricanes on January 5, 2023 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a new year brings several star players returning from injuries. That includes Max Pacioretty, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nicklas Backstrom and more, plus defensive defensemen and gritty forwards that are scoring enough to generate fantasy appeal.

#1 Acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer, left winger Max Pacioretty suffered a torn Achilles that kept him sidelined until Friday’s game. A six-time 30-goal scorer, Pacioretty is skating with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Derek Stepan to start, but he is obviously too prolific a scorer to remain there. In his last three seasons with Vegas, Pacioretty put up 154 points (75 G, 79 A) in 158 games.

#2 The Detroit Red Wings welcomed Robby Fabbri back from his most recent torn ACL, which is quite a statement to make about anyone’s hockey career. Fabbri, 26, had 79 points (41 G, 38 A) in 138 games with Detroit over the past three seasons and now he will add some scoring depth to the Red Wings lineup. Like Pacioretty, Fabbri is starting lower on the depth chart, with Pius Suter and Oskar Sundqvist as his linemates, but he has enough upside that he can climb up the depth chart.

#3 For the past few weeks, the Winnipeg Jets have been battling through a lineup depleted by injuries, but that looks like it will be coming to an end. Nikolaj Ehlers, who played just two games before getting hurt, is a massive addition to the Jets lineup as one of the elite play-driving wingers in the game. Veteran right winger Blake Wheeler and rookie left winger Cole Perfetti are also on track to return, which gives the Jets lineup the kind of scoring depth that makes them a quality team. While Ehlers and Wheeler are rostered in many leagues, Perfetti is more readily available, and he had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his last 15 games before getting hurt.

#4 That the Washington Capitals have managed to climb into a playoff spot despite being without the services of Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom all season has been one of the best team accomplishments of the first half. Now, the Capitals are about to get those two veteran forwards back in the lineup and that should make the team more potent offensively. It might take some time, coming off of long-term injuries, but a healthy Backstrom and Wilson will make an impact for the Capitals, not least of all giving Washington the depth to diversify their attack.

#5 If there is a concern for players on the Washington roster, maybe cast a skeptical eye towards Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano. Strome had three assists in Thursday’s 6-2 win at Columbus, giving him 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 41 games, but he will likely lose ice time, including first unit power play time, when Backstrom is healthy. Milano has put up 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 28 games after he signed in mid-October. Hard to believe that a player of his skill level could not get a contract after the Ducks did not extend him a qualifying offer. Nevertheless, Strome and Milano could be pushed down the depth chart and that does give them less fantasy appeal.

#6 With Pittsburgh Penguins starting goaltender Tristan Jarry suffering a lower-body injury at the Winter Classic, it looks like Casey DeSmith will get to start some games in Jarry’s absence. DeSmith has been a capable backup, with a .907 save percentage and 0.77 Goals Allowed Above Expected, but if he gets regular starts for a few weeks, there is at least the potential for a greater fantasy impact. The Penguins are slumping, winless in six, but five of their next seven games are against teams currently outside the playoffs.

#7 Known for his strong defensive game, Seattle Kraken defenseman Adam Larsson has added some offense to his repertoire, and it is making him a viable fantasy contributor. Larsson was held off the scoresheet in Toronto on Thursday night, snapping a seven-game point streak, during which he had seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 16 shots on goal. While Larsson did not record a point against the Maple Leafs, he did have six hits and six blocked shots, giving him 104 hits and 83 blocked shots. The number of defensemen who have more hits and blocked shots than Larsson is one – it’s Jacob Trouba (123 hits, 97 blocked shots).

#8 Another defenseman that is known for his physical defensive play, New York Islanders blueliner Alexander Romanov has been contributing more offensively, enough to gain fantasy appeal. Last season, with Montreal, Romanov had 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 79 games. This season, he has matched that point total in 40 games and he still as 98 hits, which is tied for 10^th among defensemen.

#9 Known for his relentless hard-driving style of play, Seattle Kraken right winger Brandon Tanev is making an impact offensively and that suddenly makes him a legitimate fantasy consideration. Tanev has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past nine games and when his increased scoring numbers are combined with his 91 hits in 37 games, there is a path to Tanev contributing in deep or banger leagues.

#10 As the St. Louis Blues face the prospect of playing without Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko for more than a month, other forwards will have to step up if the Blues are still going to compete for a playoff spot. Brayden Schenn is one possibility. He is a reluctant shooter – aside from December 29, when he launched 11 shots on goal against the Blackhawks – but Schenn has 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in the past 14 games, including a couple of points in Tuesday’s win at Toronto when he played a season-high 22:49.

#11 The Philadelphia Flyers are showing signs of being a more competitive squad and center Scott Laughton has stepped up his game, producing 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in the past nine games. Laughton has 20 points (9 G, 11 A) and 83 hits in 35 games. There are only four centers with more in both categories – Vincent Trocheck, Sam Bennett, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Adam Lowry.

#12 While the Columbus Blue Jackets are already lacking a top playmaking center, they are trying to make do without and injured Boone Jenner, so Jack Roslovic has picked up some of the slack. Roslovic has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his past 13 games and has surpassed 20 minutes of ice time three times in the past eight games. He had played more than 20 minutes in a game once in 25 games before that.

#13 Although he is virtually always an elite play-driving winger, Nashville Predators forward Nino Niederreiter can see his production fade in and out over the course of a season. In his past nine games, Niederreiter has produced eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 27 shots on goal and that shot rate is what is encouraging for his point production. When his offense dries up, it tends to be when he is no longer generating shots. In 36 games this season, Niederreiter has recorded one or zero shots in 15 of those games.

#14 It is really too soon to start recommending Edmonton Oilers winger Klim Kostin, but the 23-year-old is starting to make a name for himself in Edmonton and has landed a spot skating on Connor McDavid’s wing. Kostin has five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past seven games and while that left wing spot is going to be Evander Kane’s again eventually, there might be some short-term fantasy value in Kostin, too.

#15 The Detroit Red Wings shocked the hockey world when they put winger Jakub Vrana on waivers this week. Even more shocking is that Vrana cleared. Since joining the Red Wings in a trade for Anthony Mantha, Vrana has scored 22 goals in 39 games, but he did spend most of the first half of the season in the Player Assistance Program. The idea, apparently, is for Vrana to get more playing time in the AHL before he returns to the NHL, but his situation bears watching, if only because a healthy Vrana is an elite five-on-five goal scorer and those guys are not easy to find.

#16 Staying in Detroit, second year Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond started slowly in his sophomore campaign, with just two assists through seven games. Since then, though, he has 21 points (10 G, 11 A) in 29 games and while he could stand to shoot the puck more, he has become a quality scoring threat for the Wings.

#17 After missing six weeks with an upper-body injury, Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman has returned to action and while he is not playing as much, he is still producing. In seven games since he returned to the lineup Hartman has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal despite playing 13:33 per game. He is also not skating at center between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, like he did when he scored a career-high 34 goals and 65 points last season, but if Sam Steel can hold that spot, Hartman gives the Wild more scoring depth with another line – right now that is with Matt Boldy and Frederick Gaudreau.

#18 At this stage of the season, finding goaltending can be a challenge, but it’s not impossible. Pheonix Copley has had an immediate impact on the Los Angeles Kings and is playing well enough to win, which gives him fantasy value. Who are some other goaltenders that might offer at least short-term value? Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson is the backup to Marc-Andre Fleury, but after a couple of shaky starts early in the year, he has been excellent, posting a .934 save percentage in his past 13 games. That is the kind of play that earns a backup more starts.

#19 I tend to be skeptical of Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo, who has had several below average seasons, but he does have a .939 save percentage in his past four starts and any sign of goaltending competence could earn the starting job for the Blue Jackets. The wins don’t come easily, though, so it might be worth waiting to see if Korpisalo can keep his form for a little while before pulling the trigger. Vancouver’s Collin Delia might get forced into action while Thatcher Demko is injured, because Spencer Martin is getting overwhelmed in the starter’s role. Delia has a .925 save percentage in four games and that is going to earn him more opportunities.

#20 Finally, when looking at expected goals leaders over the past month, naturally there are top-tier goal scorers included, like Alex Ovechkin, Jack Hughes, Connor McDavid, and David Pastrnak. It is interesting, though, to see some others that are generating high-quality chances. Others in the top dozen over the past month include Anders Lee, Zach Hyman, Michael Bunting, Drake Batherson, and Sam Reinhart. While most of those players are heating up offensively, Lee and Reinhart are probably still looking at additional room for positive regression.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SEATTLE KRAKEN – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:33:00 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 26: Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers (10) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 26, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jared McCann

Given a bigger role with an expansion team, the 26-year-old rose to the challenge and scored a career-high 27 goals and 50 points. Not only is McCann a play driving forward, but he has the shot to make the most of his scoring opportunities, scoring on 14.0% of his shots in the past two seasons after scoring on 8.8% of his shots during the five previous seasons. Some of that increase in shooting percentage is due to getting more time on the power play, where McCann has scored 15 of his 41 goals in the past two seasons. McCann has a strong defensive track record, so his emergence as a scorer gives him legitimate value as a two-way forward, one that is capable of playing center or wing. Another 50-point season, with 25 goals, should be in the cards for McCann this season.

Yanni Gourde

Coming to Seattle after winning a pair of Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay, Gourde had the third 20-goal season of his career and was the most dangerous playmaker on the roster. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and that passion brings out his best performance. The 30-year-old is a leader on the Kraken, not only because of his success in the league, but also because of the way that he plays. 20 goals and 50 points for this season is an expectation that is consistent with Gourde’s previous production. In his career, he has surpassed 20 goals three times and while he has surpassed 50 points just once, Gourde has two 48-point seasons to his credit as well.

Andre Burakovsky

Desperate to upgrade their skill level, the Kraken signed the Avalanche winger coming off the best season of his career, scoring 22 goals and 61 points. The challenge for Burakovsky will be trying to maintain his level of production even though his teammates will not be as skilled as those that he left in Colorado. The 27-year-old can play both wings and was effective while moving around the Avs lineup, so he should be able to inject some goals into the Seattle lineup. At least that is the expectation. While he might not match last season’s production, Burakovsky could deliver 25 goals and 55 points, which would be awfully valuable to a Kraken team that needs more goals.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Acquired in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Bjorkstrand is an excellent two-way winger who will immediately upgrade Seattle’s forward group. The 27-year-old had a career-high 28 goals and 57 points last season and even though he was minus-35, the Blue Jackets had outshot and out-chanced the opposition with Bjorkstrand on the ice. That he can score is not any kind of surprise, because he is a three-time 20-goal scorer, but Bjorkstrand has also delivered strong defensive results, and that probably makes him more valuable than the public might perceive. Bjorkstand could add 25 goals and 50-plus points to the Kraken, and the additions of Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand could go a long way towards providing the Kraken with the offensive punch they lacked last season.

Jordan Eberle

The veteran winger had his seventh 20-goal season, which was expected, but his overall impacts were not as strong as they had been in previous seasons with the New York Islanders. Now 32, Eberle can still provide offense but might be getting to the point at which he provides secondary offense because decline should be coming and Eberle has never been one to rely on physical gifts so much as positioning, anticipation, and intelligence to get into scoring position. Eberle could reasonably be expected to contribute 20 goals and 45 points this season.

Jaden Schwartz

A 30-year-old left winger with a strong reputation for his ability to drive play, but also a reputation for missing time with injuries, Schwartz could still drive play last season, but he scored on just 7.9% of his shots and missed 45 games due to a broken hand, upper and lower-body injuries. Getting a healthy Schwartz for the 2022-2023 season should be a plus for the Kraken because he can still get the puck moving the right way when he is on the ice. Health is a big challenge for Schwartz, as he has missed at least a dozen games in four of his past five seasons. If he manages to stay healthy, though, 45-50 points is possible for Schwartz.

Alexander Wennberg

A playmaking center who is quietly effective defensively, Wennberg contributed 37 points in his first season with the Kraken, his most points in a season since 2016-2017. His ability to handle a defensive role helps free up others to play in scoring roles, but when he is on his game, Wennberg can be a skilled playmaker in his own right. He played quite a bit with Bjorkstand in Columbus, and they had success together, controlling 55.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts and 57.1% of 5-on-5 goals from 2017-2018 through 2019-2020. Considering the newfound depth on the Kraken roster, Wennberg probably won’t be asked to handle a major offensive role, so 35 points is a fair expectation.

Joonas Donskoi

The veteran winger had scored between 14 and 17 goals in four consecutive seasons before 2021-2022, when he scored two goals in 75 games. He is a low volume shooter, which is not ideal, but generally plays a solid enough game to comfortably fit in a middle six role, just so long as he does not finish with two goals in 75 games! With improved depth on the wings in Seattle, there is not going to be as much pressure on Donskoi to produce, but it also could mean fewer opportunities. Donskoi has also had shootout success in his career, as his success rate of 56.3% ranks fourth among active players with at least 10 attempts. It would seem impossible for Donskoi to score on such a low percentage (1.9%) of his shots again, so he should be able to score at least a dozen goals and maybe 30-35 points this season.

Ryan Donato

Typical depth wingers in the NHL are often of the crash and bang variety, players that may not have the most skill, but Donato leans more in that direction, so he might be a fourth line winger but is a shootout specialist and coming off a season in which he produced a career high 16 goals and 31 points. Donato has been successful on 47.4% of his career shootout attempts, ranking 11^th among active players with at least 10 attempts. In any case, Donato does a fair job generating shots and a little offense and if he provides 15 goals and 30 points in a depth role, that would be good value.

DEFENSE

Vince Dunn

Moving to Seattle was supposed to free up Dunn for his best offensive performance and he did play a career high 20:41 per game for the Kraken last season. Dunn’s 35 points tied his career best, set in 2018-2019, and he is the most offensively gifted of Seattle’s blueliners, but he should be able to produce more than he did last season. At 25-years-old, he is in his prime and if the Kraken have upgraded their offense enough, it would be reasonable to expect Dunn to bust out offensively, even if it is a year after it might have been anticipated. Unless the Kraken make a change on the blueline, Dunn is still their best bet to work on the power play so he should be able to exceed last year’s total of 35 points.

Adam Larsson

A steady stay-at-home blueliner, Larsson did produce a career high eight goals and 25 points in his first season with the Kraken, but his value is more related to his shot suppression skills. He is big and mobile and will lay his body on the line as both a hitter and shot blocker and while that is the type of game that can tend to age poorly, the 29-year-old has appeared in every game in three of the past four seasons. His steady presence remains valuable to the Kraken, even if he is not expected to ever produce huge point totals. While he has scored 20 points or more in three different seasons, that is a tad optimistic for Larsson’s production this season.

Jamie Oleksiak

The towering blueliner stepped into a regular role on the Kraken blueliner and played more than 19 minutes per game on his way to tying his career high in points with 17. Oleksiak did record a career high 182 hits while achieving positive shot differentials despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Oleksiak could be more aggressive offensively – the 29-year-old has shown that he can skate and handle the puck better than one might think of a 6-foot-7, 255-pound defenseman, so there could be room for a bigger contribution, but there is plenty of value in filling the role of a physically imposing shutdown defenseman, too. He might have the potential to record a 20-point season, but the fair expectation would be for a little less than that.

Justin Schultz

The 32-year-old right shot blueliner saw his role reduced significantly in Washington last season, as he averaged a career low 16:55 of ice time per game. He plays a relatively understated role at this stage of his career and yet his ability to make a good pass and get the puck moving out of the defensive zone still leads to favorable shot differentials. The Kraken could use that puck-moving element so Schultz is likely to see more ice time than he did with Washington last season, so there might be a path to greater point production. Schultz had 23 points last season but has had six seasons in which he has recorded more than 25 points, so 25-30 points is still a possibility this season.

GOALTENDING

Philipp Grubauer

The Seattle Kraken entered their inaugural season looking a bit like the cat that got the canary. They’d managed to lure Colorado Avalanche backstop Philipp Grubauer away from the presumed Stanley Cup favorites, forcing the Central Division club to scramble and overpay for a rental instead of entering the year with players they already knew and loved. The lack of a structured defensive system for Grubauer to learn, though, left the analysis-driven German netminder floundering in his new environment; where he was one of the league’s hottest commodities leading up to opening night, he was one of the biggest free agency letdowns by the time the regular season was over.

Grubauer had been open in the past about needing time to fully internalize a team’s desired defensive system in order to move within it comfortably, so Seattle’s disastrous start to their first year almost certainly left him desperate for some order and consistency. He missed reads and seemed to be moving on a different wavelength from his teammates some nights, which left him vulnerable to bad-angle shots and sloppy rebounds – and while Colorado’s monstrous offense was easily able to shelter him during his first-year learning curve with the Avalanche a few seasons ago, Seattle’s chaotic rookie year exposed his struggles and almost certainly made them a little bit worse. As a result, it seems like a no-brainer that his performance this year will be reliant on the team’s ability to give him something to work with – and until they’ve shown that they’re able to learn from last season’s mistakes, it’s not likely he’ll be inspiring much in the way of faith from fans and pundits alike.

Projected starts: 55-60

GOALTENDING

Martin Jones

Very few teams looked to be good fits for Martin Jones this off-season, after he once again struggled to regain his early career form during a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. His arrival with the Seattle Kraken, though, seems especially perplexing; like Philadelphia, the Kraken are a team that struggled to perform last year and need stability that Jones hasn’t offered in a number of years.

It feels a bit like a broken record to evaluate Martin Jones year after year as his career continues to exhibit strong Groundhog Day-esque tendencies. He still lacks the structure and balance to his lateral movements and reads that could stabilize his timing and close off the massive holes he opened up in his own crease for shooters to capitalize on, even after he finally left San Jose and opted for a fresh start clear across the continental United States. There’s not much that Philadelphia had to offer that made it seem likely that Jones would bounce back last year, which makes it hard to truly evaluate if he’s capable of ever reaching league-average full-season stats again. But the bad news is that Seattle, too, struggled from a systems stability standpoint last year. It’s hard to take a look at what Seattle did in their inaugural year and feel confident that Jones will turn things around.

Of course, there’s always a chance he won’t need to. If Philipp Grubauer is able to stabilize his own game for long enough, the Kraken could find themselves allowing Jones an incredibly short leash until Chris Driedger is able to return from their injured reserve list.

Projected starts: 20-25

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS -Tarasenko and Ovechkin look like their old selves plus much more.

Scott Cullen — Wed, 27 Oct 2021 22:21:43 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Vladimir Tarasenko looks like his old self. Same goes for Alex Ovechkin. Points on Sam Bennett, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrei Svechnikov, Yanni Gourde and much more.

#1 While he apparently still wants to be traded, St. Louis Blues right winger Vladimir Tarasenko is doing his part to create a market for his services. After playing less than 13 minutes per game in the first game of the season, Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past four games. He obviously has a strong track record, as a five-time 30-goal scorer, but there have been concerns about his surgically repaired shoulder, but the way that Tarasenko is playing now – leading the league with 5.20 shots on goal per game, the shoulder does not appear to be a problem.

#2 The Washington Capitals have this winger who it turns out knows how to score a little bit. Alex Ovechkin is 36 years old and is off to the best start of his career. In six games, Ovi has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and is still generating more than four shots on goal per game. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record is starting to heat up, even if it’s going to be years away, and part of the reason to believe is that 36-year-old Ovechkin is still hugely productive.

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 16: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) prepares to shoot during the second period of a game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Vancouver Canucks on October 16, 2021 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Coming into the season, there were not a lot of rookies who looked like they would score at a huge rate as rookies. That might still be case in the end but, right now, Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has started his NHL career with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. After scoring 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, this has been an accelerated timeline on Raymond being a big NHL scorer but he is getting a first line shot alongside Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, which is a pretty solid opportunity.

#4 When the Florida Panthers acquired Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames, Bennett showed up in South Florida as a different player. He produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games for the Panthers, but it was a small sample, and it would have been fair to expect him to fall of that pace. Early in this season, Bennett has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal in six games.

#5 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk has been productive offensively early in this season, scoring three even-strength goals and adding three power-play assists in seven games. He is also getting caved in, with a 31.1 CF%, so he is riding some high percentage good fortune to that early point production but being on the wrong end of shot share to that degree should be alarming.

#6 The Winnipeg Jets did not get the best version of Pierre-Luc Dubois when they acquired him from Columbus last season, as Dubois stumbled his way to 20 points (8 G, 12 A) in 41 games. After a full offseason to prepare, Dubois has arrived ready to contribute and has seven points (4 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He has scored on half of his shots so far this season, and that obviously won’t continue, but Dubois has stepped up with Mark Scheifele out and when Scheifele returns, Dubois figures to be the second line centre that the Jets thought they were getting last season.

#7 Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner scored 30 goals in 2015-2016 but has not approached that level since and his fantasy value, if any, has been more closely aligned with hits and blocked shots. However, he is playing net front on the Columbus power play this season and has scored three of his four goals this season with the man advantage. Jenner is playing a career-high 20:20 per game so his role might be significant enough to give him fantasy relevance in 2021-2022.

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#8 Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov did not break out he might have been expected to last season, but we might be a year late on the breakout season. The 21-year-old, who was the second pick in the 2018 Draft, Svechnikov has points in all five Hurricanes games this season, on his way to nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in those five games for a Carolina team that has won all five.

#9 Puck-moving defenceman Nate Schmidt had a disappointing season for the Vancouver Canucks last season, his only season with the team, but he appears to be responding well to a fresh start in Winnipeg. Schmidt has six assists in the past four games, so there is reason to be encouraged, but he is still on the wrong end of the shot battle (46.9 CF%) which should temper some expectations for continued success. So maybe the reasonable position to take is that Schmidt will be better than last season in Vancouver, when he had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) in 54 games, but probably not continue at his current pace of six points in six games.

#10 Seattle Kraken centre Yanni Gourde made a relatively quick return from offseason shoulder surgery, and not only does he have three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first three games, but he has nine shots on goal and is playing 21:57 per game, a pretty big increase over the 17:04 per game that he played in Tampa Bay last season – his previous career high.

#11 Now that Carter Hutton is injured, and out for the next 2-4 weeks, Karel Vejmelka has an opportunity to prove he is a legitimate NHL goaltender. The 25-year-old has an .899 save percentage in five appearances for the Coyotes this season after posting a .913 save percentage in 163 games in the Czech League. Ivan Prosvetov has been called up from the AHL, and he will see some action, too, but the Coyotes are not especially interested in winning this season so if their goaltending ends up being subpar, it really does not interfere with their main objectives.

#12 Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane is currently out of the lineup while in Covid-19 protocol and will face scrutiny in the wake of the investigation into the Blackhawks scandal, but there has been a relentless pace to his production, even as the team around him has crumbled. Kane has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in five games.

#13 Notable forwards that have played at least five games and are still seeking their first point of the season: Tampa Bay’s Corey Perry, Toronto’s Nick Ritchie, the Islanders’ Zach Parise, San Jose’s Nick Bonino, Detroit’s Pius Suter, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, and Edmonton’s Kailer Yamamoto. From that group, Bratt was one of my favourite value picks coming into the season and he would still have a higher ceiling than some of those veteran options. Interesting to note that several of these players have changed teams and have struggled to produce early with their new teams.

#14 Forwards with the most shots on goal without a goal yet: Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Montreal’s Josh Anderson, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Montreal’s Cole Caufield, Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube, Detroit’s Pius Suter, and Los Angeles’ Arthur Kaliyev. It is not hard to figure out why the Canadiens are struggling when Gallagher, Anderson and Caufield have combined for zero goals on 49 shots.

#15 While his early production has not been anything special, managing two points (1 G, 1 A) in seven games, Vancouver Canucks defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has put 28 shots on goal. Four shots on goal per game leads defencemen (minimum five games played) and would easily be a career-high for Ekman-Larsson, who has not recorded 2.50 shots on goal per game since 2015-2016. That shot rate is enough reason to hold out hope for Ekman-Larsson this season.

#16 Seattle Kraken winger Brandon Tanev has scored five goals in his first seven games with the expansion team but while the goals have been welcome, it is not coming from a sustainable place. Tanev has scored on 38.5% of his shots and, on top of that, has not picked up any assists. He could still have the first 30-point season of his career, but this early-season burst is not something to expect from Tanev in the long run.

#17 Minnesota Wild defenceman Matt Dumba is producing early in the season, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in six games and all of those points coming at evens. Dumba is generating 3.67 shots per game, a massive increase on his 1.75 shots per game last season, so he could be more of an offensive weapon for the Wild this season after a couple of seasons with relatively mediocre production.

#18 One of my sleeper candidates coming into the season was Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak, who had 18 points (5 G, 13 A) and 98 hits in 46 games last season. Those numbers get him into the fantasy discussion for deeper leagues, but Cernak might have another category that gives him an advantage. While he has two assists in seven games this season, he also has 25 shots on goal, a massive jump after averaging 1.86 shots on goal per game through the first three seasons of his NHL career. If his shot rate stays high, even if not at its current lofty rate, Cernak can have stealth fantasy value.

#19 There have been some outstanding goaltending performances early in the season, from Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins, Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, to Dallas’ Braden Holtby. All of those goaltenders have a save percentage of .939 or better in the very early going this season and all of them would have been relatively suspect entering the season.

Merzlikins’ main concern was not having the strongest team in front of him.

Andersen had struggled with performance and injuries in the previous two seasons with Toronto.

Anderson is a 40-year-old who played four games for Washington last season.

Bobrovsky’s past two seasons in Florida have been well-documented and it looked like rookie Spencer Knight could steal the starting job.

Holtby has been in decline for four seasons and in the past two seasons has finished with a save percentage under .900. Mix that in with a crowded Stars crease and it did not look like a great time to be optimistic about the performance of Braden Holtby.

A couple of things: 1. Goaltenders are voodoo. 2. This is a very small sample of games for each of these goalies. 3. There is nothing wrong with grabbing the hot goaltender for a little while until that heat cools off.

#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum is Chicago’s Marc-Andre Fleury. He was not sure that he wanted to join the Blackhawks after he was traded from the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason and has lost his first four games while posting a .839 save percentage. Combine that with the team’s problems on and off the ice and it has been a rather dramatic shift in fortunes for the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Panthers a fit for Bennett – Tavares, Blackwell, Bonino and Goligoski making late season charges

Scott Cullen — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 21:33:43 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Florida Panthers have been a great fit for Sam Bennett. John Tavares, Colin Blackwell, Nick Bonino, and Alex Goligoski are among those making late-season charges.

Jonathan Huberdeau (11) of the Florida Panthers (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

#1 As Sam Bennett’s time in Calgary came to an end, he was on an atypical four-game point streak, picking up five assists in his last four games for the Flames. Bennett has responded to the trade to Florida by tallying five points (3 G, 2 A) and 15 hits in his first three games for the Panthers. This is the best possible version of Bennett, it appears, and some of that is due to the opportunity he is getting, centering the second line in Florida, between Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair.

#2 Huberdeau is a scoring weapon, even away from Aleksander Barkov. Barkov has 2.32 primary points/60 during 5-on-5 play this season, ranking seventh (minimum 500 5-on-5 minutes) behind the likes of Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin, Auston Matthews, Mark Stone, and Nathan MacKinnon. Oh, that’s only five. All of those superstars are behind Jason Robertson, the Stars rookie who has 2.82 primary points/60 this season.

#3 Where was I? Oh yes, Huberdeau. He ranks 13^th in primary points/60 this season with 2.16 primary points/60, the same rate as Max Pacioretty and Mitch Marner. Since the start of the 2018-2019 season, Huberdeau has 219 points in 198 games, the seventh best total in the league. Not a bad player to have anchoring the second line.

#4 Barkov has been Huberdeau’s most common linemate over the past three seasons but not so much this season. In the past three seasons, the Panthers scored 3.56 goals/60 when Barkov and Huberdeau were on the ice during 5-on-5 play. Huberdeau has not had as much success with his most common linemates this season – Alexander Wennberg (2.77 GF/60) and Patric Hornqvist (2.62 GF/60) – thus the lineup shuffle for the Panthers, bringing in Bennett and moving Duclair to the right side of that line.

#5 Florida Panthers winger Frank Vatrano is low-key one of the premier shot generators in the league. This season, he ranks third, behind Brendan Gallagher and Brady Tkachuk, with 11.8 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play.

#6 Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares has been the target of frequent criticism this season, To be fair, when he had 28 points in 37 games, that was pretty far off of his typical point-per-game pace. Since then, though, Tavares has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in the past nine games, leaving him with 42 points in 46 games. Tavares had 1.97 goals for per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play in the first 37 games, thanks in part to an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6%. Since then, the Maple Leafs are scoring 4.35 goals/60 with an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.5% with Tavares on the ice. When those percentages flip, the production can change in a hurry.

#7 While the rookie scoring race appears to be between Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov and Dallas’ Jason Robertson, Ottawa Senators center Josh Norris has delivered a stellar rookie campaign. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) during a five-game point streak and ranks third among rookie scorer with 29 points.

#8 New York Rangers winger Colin Blackwell appears to have secured a spot on the right side with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Blackwell does have 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in the past 13 games and Panarin is the only Rangers player who has a higher on-ice scoring rate in those 13 games.

#9 The injury to Zach Hyman could lead to a rough stretch for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He ranks fourth on the team with 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes this season and over the past three seasons the Maple Leafs score 60.2% of the goals at 5-on-5 with Hyman and Auston Matthews on the ice. Matthews, without Hyman over the past three seasons, has been on the ice for 52.8% of goals during 5-on-5 play.

#10 In a stretch from late January through early April, Minnesota Wild forward Nick Bonino had six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games while playing 13:43 per game. Since Aprl 7, Bonino has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in seven games while playing 17:00 per game. He has been getting first-unit power play time recently, even if he is still on the lower half of the Wild depth chart at evens, but it is enough of an opportunity for Bonino to provide some late-season fantasy value, basically where none existed for most of this season.

#11 Arizona Coyotes defenseman Alex Goligoski has had seven seasons with at least 35 points, so he knows how to move the puck and run a power play in the National Hockey League. He was put into a defensive role early this season. After an assist on opening night, he had one assist in his next 31 games. In his past 14 games, Goligoski has 13 points (3 G, 10 A), including four assists on the power play. The bonus with Goligoski is that he is also a shot blocker, with 31 in the past 14 games to give him even more fantasy appeal.

#12 Taken with the eighth pick in the 2017 Draft, Buffalo Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt has had a difficult time making his mark in the National Hockey League. He had nine points in 31 games last season before getting sent down to the American Hockey League and he managed five points (1 G, 4 A) in his first 19 games this season, so that is a modest 14 points in 50 games. In his past dozen games, though, Mittelstadt has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and is going to play enough the rest of the way because the Sabres need to find out if he can capably fill a role in their top six next season.

#13 Mittelstadt is not the only young Sabres forward who will get big reps down the stretch. 20-year-old rookie Dylan Cozens has been in and out of the lineup with a few injuries this season but since his most recent return to the lineup, Cozens has five assists and 20 shots on goal in six games while playing more than 16 minutes per game. He has also been getting educated in the faceoff circle, winning a meagre 26.5% of his draws in those six games.

#14 The Boston Bruins made one of the best additions at the trade deadline and it may not even be the Taylor Hall deal, although that one was good, too. Defenseman Mike Reilly was exactly what the Bruins needed, a competent puck-moving defenseman who could get out of the defensive zone and let Boston’s forwards go to work. Reilly has three assists in his first five games with the Bruins but has seen a spike in ice time, from 18:36 per game in Ottawa, to 22:31 per game with the Bruins.

#15 A winger who might be known as much for borderline hits as for his hockey acumen, the Blues’ Sammy Blais is making his mark late in the season. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 hits in the past five games, which takes Blais from relative obscurity to difference-maker status in fantasy hockey. Wingers who can deliver four hits per game are few and far between. Over the full season, Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Tanev, and Tyler Motte are the only three forwards averaging more than four hits per game.

#16 A rookie winger who could be poised for a big finish, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander showed flashes of potential early in the season after he was a surprise to secure a top-six role for the Canucks but then he went through some dry spells offensively. He’s gearing up a for a big finish, it appears, with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past seven games and if the Canucks are indeed going to play out their schedule, they have more games remaining (17) than any other team.

#17 New York Islanders winger Anthony Beauvillier was easy to ignore for most of the season. While he generated 50 shots on goal in his first 22 games, he had just six points (2 G, 4 A). Those shot rates were encouraging but what can you do with six points in 22 games? The right answer, apparently, it to be patient. In his past 15 games, Beauvillier has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 27 shots on goal.

#18 Rookie goaltenders have made a difference this season. The Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin stumbled in his first three NHL starts, posting an .871 save percentage. Since then, Sorokin has a .934 save percentage in 14 games, giving him a .922 mark for the season. Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic has a .932 save percentage in 17 starts. The Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin at .920 and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, with a .919 save percentage, have had an impact, as well as Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. He has cooled off but still has a .911 save percentage in 33 starts.

#19 Among the smaller sample sizes, and looking to the future for goaltenders, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman has a .938 save percentage in his first five starts and Florida’s Spencer Knight won his NHL debut, stopping 33 of 34 shots against Columbus Tuesday.

#20 The hype machine is ready and waiting for Montreal Canadiens right winger Cole Caufield, the 15^th pick in the 2019 Draft, who shredded the NCAA this season, with 52 points (30 G, 22 A) in 31 games at Wisconsin before scoring four points (3 G, 1 A) in his first two AHL games. Now, he appears to be knocking on the door for a late-season audition in Montreal and, with Brendan Gallagher injured, there just might be room for the Habs to find out if Caufield can follow the path of Alex DeBrincat as undersized snipers that can simply score wherever they play. For fantasy managers seeking a late-season scoring boost, Caufield’s upside does make him worth picking up off the waiver wire.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

SCOTT CULLEN’S 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS 3/17/21

Scott Cullen — Wed, 17 Mar 2021 19:07:03 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, Alexander Ovechkin and Kirill Kaprizov are shooting more, Johnny Hockey and Phil Kessel are shooting less, and some surprising lines are among the most productive through the first half of the NHL season.

20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews scored 18 goals in the first 18 games of the season, scoring on 24% of his shots. Since then, he has three goals in nine games, scoring on 8.1% of his shots. Matthews has injured his wrist so that may be affecting his shot, but he was also not likely to continue scoring on 24% of his shots either. He is one of the elite shooters in the league but in his four seasons prior to this one, Matthews scored on 15.7% of his shots.

#2 Through his first 16 games this season, Washington Capitals superstar left winger Alexander Ovechkin had 16 points but just six goals. He was generating fewer than 3.6 shots per game, a rate that would be a career low. Since then, though, Ovechkin has started to get more pucks to the net and it is starting to pay off, at least in terms of goals. In nine games since then, Ovechkin has six goals and 45 shots on goal.

#3 Calgary Flames left winger Johnny Gaudreau is going in the opposite direction. Johnny Hockey had 16 points, including nine goals, with 35 shots on goal in 15 games to start the season. Since then, he has two goals and five assists, with 21 shots on goal, in 14 games. In three games with Darryl Sutter behind the Flames bench, Gaudreau has zero points and three shots on goal.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Minnesota Wild Right Wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) controls the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

#4 Minesota Wild rookie left winger Kirill Kaprizov started his NHL career with 16 points in 17 games, but only had 28 shots on goal, which seemed like trouble waiting to happen. Since then, Kaprizov has nine points in 10 games but he has 43 shots on goal in that time. If Kaprizov is going to maintain this shooting trend, it could make it easier for him to sustain his offensive production.

#5 One of the best stories from early in the season, Arizona Coyotes winger Conor Garland had 14 points and 52 shots on goal in his first 14 games. Since then, he has eight points and 20 shots on goal in 14 games. The decline in shot rate, from 3.7 per game to 1.4 per game, is devastating and a legitimate reason for concern for the Coyotes and fantasy managers alike.

#6 In 28 games this season, Tampa Bay Lightning left winger Ondrej Palat has already recorded a career-high 15 power play points. With Nikita Kucherov out of the Tampa Bay lineup following hip surgery, Palat is averaging a career-high 3:19 of ice time per game with the man advantage and has scored seven goals on 16 shots on the power play, making the most of his opportunity to play first unit power play minutes.

#7 Palat is one of eight forwards who has scored more than 55% of his points on the power play this season. The others: Eeli Tolvanen, Victor Olofsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Ritchie, Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, and Joe Pavelski.

#8 Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty is enjoying a productive season. His 22 points in 27 games is a career high 0.81 points per game and yet he is doing it without shooting. There are 164 defensemen that have played at least 250 5-on-5 minutes this season and Doughty ranks 162^nd with 2.33 shots per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

Neal Pionk #4 of the Winnipeg Jets

#9 Since the beginning of February, Winnipeg Jets defenseman Neal Pionk ranks second among all blueliners with 0.90 points per game (18 points in 20 games), behind only Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, who has 0.91 points per game (20 points in 22 games).

#10 Beware the checking line of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Zach Aston-Reese, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Tanev are the only trio in the league to play more than 100 5-on-5 minutes together without having a goal against, going more than 139 shutout minutes so far. The line with the next most time on ice together without a goal? Boston’s Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle, and Craig Smith at 92 minutes.

#11 There are 55 lines that have played together for more than 100 5-on-5 minutes this season. Only three have scored more than five goals per 60 minutes. Philadelphia’s trio of James van Riemsdyk, Sean Couturier, and Joel Farabee leads the way with 5.62 goals/60, followed closely by Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Victor Rask, and Mats Zuccarello (5.59), and Vegas’ Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson, and Mark Stone (5.39).

#12 With Stephenson injured, there may be an opportunity for 2017 sixth overall pick Cody Glass to reap the rewards of playing with two of the premier wingers in the game. Stone ranks third in the league (among forwards with at least 200 5-on-5 minutes) with 3.63 points/60 while Pacioretty ranks ninth, with 3.01 points/60.

#13 One of the more interesting lines in hockey this season resides in Florida, where Aleksander Barkov is centering Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, that line has the highest expected goal rate (3.85) of any line with more than 100 5-on-5 minutes.

#14 The line that ranks second in expected goal rate, with 3.71 xG/60, just lost their left winger for the rest of the season. New York Islanders captain Anders Lee suffered a torn ACL, which will keep him sidelined for the rest of the campaign, but he had been highly productive alongside Mathew Barzal and Jordan Eberle. Kieffer Bellows has produced three goals in three games since moving into Lee’s spot in the lineup.

#15 Colorado Avalanche winger Joonas Donskoi is a solid middle-six winger who contributes some secondary offense but has never had more than 37 points in an NHL season. It now appears that he is trying to generate offense without putting shots on net. He is down to 0.85 shots on goal per game, less than half of his rate last season and is trending down. Donskoi has six shots on goal in the past 12 games and two shots on goal in the past eight. He also has 16 points in 27 games, a career-high 0.59 points per game.

#16 One of the main reasons to worry about the production of Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel is that he is not generating enough chances. His rates of shot attempts (12.1 per 60), shots (6.3 per 60), and expected goals (0.58 per 60) are all at career lows. Last season was pretty much a disaster for Kessel as he finished with 38 points and 2.2 shots on goal per game in 70 games. This season, he does have 18 points in 29 games but just 1.8 shots on goal per game. Once the shots dry up, it gets increasingly difficult to keep the points flowing. Unless you’re Joonas Donskoi, apparently.

St. Louis Blues center Jordan Kyrou (33)

#17 With Vladimir Tarasenko returning to the St. Louis Blues lineup and producing four points in his first four games back, it does not look great for Jordan Kyrou, the early season scoring star for St. Louis whose role is diminishing by the game. Kyrou has one assist and five shots on goal in the four games since Tarasenko returned.

#18 The Buffalo Sabres fired head coach Ralph Krueger. There is not much reason to argue with a team that is 6-18-4 and winless in 12 looking for a new voice and Don Granato was named interim head coach. The Sabres rank 31^st in 5-on-5 goals for (1.52 per 60 minutes) and 29^th in 5-on-5 goals against (2.92 per 60 minutes). Their special teams were around middle of the pack which is not nearly enough to overcome that 5-on-5 beatdown.

#19 Jeff Skinner might be an obvious candidate for improved performance under a new head coach in Buffalo because he was buried on the fourth line and even banished to the press box by Krueger for multiple games as a healthy scratch. Even in his limited role, Skinner was leading the Sabres in shot attempts/60 (17.1) and shots/60 (8.9).

#20 The leading 5-on-5 goal scorer for Buffalo is Sam Reinhart, who has six. He is followed by Tobias Rieder (5), Curtis Lazar (4), and Riley Sheahan (3). Each of those next three forwards has gone through excruciating goal slumps in their careers.

Rieder played 67 games for Edmonton in 2018-2019 and did not score a goal. In 2016-2017, Lazar did not score a goal in 33 games for Ottawa before scoring in his fourth game with Calgary. He then went 39 games without a goal to start the 2017-2018 season. Sheahan played 81 games for Detroit in 2016-2017 and scored his first two goals of the season in the final game of that season. It is probably not a great sign when those players are among your team’s 5-on-5 goal scoring leaders. Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, and Victor Olofsson each have one goal during 5-on-5 play while Skinner and Eric Staal both have two.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Scott Cullen’s 20 Points on Fantasy Hockey 3/10/21 – Consistent shooters getting rewarded

Scott Cullen — Wed, 10 Mar 2021 20:18:49 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, some consistent shooters are getting rewarded, a Pittsburgh star is turning around his season, Buffalo’s best are having a hard time, and heavy hitters have value too.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

#1 I wrote last week about how unfortunate Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell had been around the net this season, scoring two goals on 69 shots. The underlying message was that his shot rates still gave reason for hope that Rakell would start finding the net. A week later, he has scored four goals on 14 shots in the past four games and is suddenly one of the hottest scorers in the league with 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak.

#2 Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine was supposed to add a jolt of electricity to the Columbus attack and it just has not materialized, in part because he is not getting enough chances to shoot the puck. In 17 games with Columbus, Laine is generating 5.35 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play. His lowest shot rate in Winnipeg was 7.53 shots/60 when he was a rookie in 2016-2017. The story is not any better on the power play either. During 5-on-4 action, Laine’s shot rate is similar to last season but 20.5 shot attempts/60 is easily a career low and 0.67 expected goals/60 is also a career low. All of this is to suggest that if the Blue Jackets would like to get their sniper out of his seven-game scoreless slump, he needs to get more opportunities to shoot the puck.

#3 This does not absolve Laine, by the way. His most common linemates, Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson, have had better results away from Laine so this story is not about how they must feed their scoring winger, even though that may be part the answer. The other part is that Laine has to be more intent on getting his shots and he is a player who tends to require assistance in that part of the game, as opposed to creating his own scoring opportunities. He did record six shots on goal against Florida Tuesday so that is a step in the right direction, but his shot volume has to improve if he is going to live up to expectations.

#4 In 2018-2019, Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals while scoring on 18.6% of his shots. Some good fortune to score at that rate. Last season, regression hit hard and even with improved shot volume, his shooting percentage plummeted to 8.6% and DeBrincat finished with 18 goals in 70 games. This season, he is shooting even more, up from 2.96 shots per game to 3.43 shots per game, and with his shooting percentage jumping back up to 17.7%, DeBrincat has 14 goals in 23 games. That shooting percentage may be a little lofty, but it is easier to expect sustained offense out of DeBrincat if his shot rate remains high.

#5 A player who was generating shots and scoring chances early in the season, with very little to show for it, is Ottawa Senators right winger Drake Batherson, who had one goal on 38 shots through 16 games and even that goal was on the power play. Batherson has since broken through for eight goals in the past 12 games, including none in the past four games so he did have a stretch of eight goals in eight games. The nature of goal-scoring is such that players may run through hot and cold stretches but that is why it is important to keep generating shots so that the opportunity is there for pucks to get into the net.

#6 So which forward might be generating shots at a high rate that might not be finishing so successfully yet? San Jose right winger Timo Meier, Ottawa left winger Brady Tkachuk, Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon, Nashville right winger Viktor Arvidsson, Boston right winger Craig Smith, and Buffalo left winger Jeff Skinner are among the Top 15 in shot attempts/60 during 5-on-5 play but are all scoring on less than 7% of their 5-on-5 shots on net. You are not likely to get bargains on Tkachuk or MacKinnon and Skinner’s situation in Buffalo does not warrant much fantasy interest but Timo Meier and possibly Viktor Arvidsson could have some upside.

#7 Regression is not merely about unsustainably high percentages coming down. Sometimes the reverse is true. Consider Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore, who has emerged as a dynamic puck-moving defenseman. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, Theodore’s on-ice shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play was 6.4%, eighth lowest among defensemen to play at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes in those two seasons and lowest among defensemen that played at least 2000 minutes. This season, his on-ice shooting percentage is 11.5%, which is unsustainably high, but he has been due for better on-ice results.

#8 This season has seemingly been a struggle for Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has just eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 15 games. He has never been a high-volume shooter but Kuznetsov’s shot rate at 5-on-5 (6.5 per 60) is better than the past couple of seasons and the Capitals are creating 57.0 shot attempts/60, which is a career high for Kuznetsov. The problem, at least for 5-on-5 play, is that Kuznetsov’s percentages are way down. He is scoring on 4.6% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4% is a career low; his on-ice shooting percentage had been over 10.0% in the previous five seasons, over 11.0% in the past two.

#9 One of the issues affecting Kuznetsov’s point production, beyond those percentages, is that his power play ice time is down from 3:11 per game last season to 2:01 per game this season.

#10 With Jack Eichel out of the Sabres lineup for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, it is noteworthy just how poor his production has been this season and it entirely possible that the injury has played a significant part in his struggles. Eichel has just two goals in 21 games but the underlying numbers are terrible, too. His 5-on-5 shot (7.0 per 60) and expected goals rates (0.54 per 60) are at career lows.

#11 Compare that to Taylor Hall, another Buffalo forward with just two goals in 24 games. Hall’s 5-on-5 shot rate (7.3 per 60) is a career low but his expected goals (0.82 per 60) is consistent with his past two seasons, so he has 4.87 expected goals to this point in the season yet has managed just one goal at 5-on-5.

#12 Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin got off to a rough start this season, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 26 shots on goal in his first 13 games. For a 34-year-old player who typically generates a lot of shots this was a little concerning. Since then, Malkin has 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in 12 games. There is a big jump in point production with an extra half shot on goal per game but the notable difference for Malkin is in power play shooting where his 5-on-4 shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 minutes have all spiked.

First 13 games (5-on-4): 16.8 iCF/60, 6.1 shots/60, 0.42 ixG/60

Next 12 games (5-on-4): 32.2 iCF/60, 16.1 shots/60, 1.73 ixG/60

#13 It is possible to be a factor in fantasy hockey without putting up points. It’s not easy but peripheral categories like hits and blocked shots have value, too. Florida defenseman Radko Gudas leads the league with 118 hits in 24 games, an average of 4.9 per game. At his most rambunctious days with Philadelphia in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, Gudas averaged 4.1 hits per game, so he has increased his hit rate by nearly 20% despite a decrease in ice time from those heavy-hitting days with the Flyers.

#14 Other hitters that are not necessarily going to draw interest with their point production but still can lower the boom and help your fantasy team: Pittsburgh winger Brandon Tanev (4.7 hits per game), Anaheim defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (4.0 hits per game), and Vegas enforcer Ryan Reaves (3.9 hits/game).

#15 There are four defensemen that have played at least 10 games and have averaged at least two hits and two blocked shots per game: Adam Larsson, Calvin de Haan, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard. Larsson is the only one averaging three hits and three blocks per game.

#16 The most prolific shooter in the league who is still available in many leagues is Minnesota Wild right winger Kevin Fiala, who is generating 3.6 shots per game. He started the season with no goals in the first four games, then scored six goals in seven games, then no goals in six games, and now has two goals in the past three games. Overall, he has eight goals in 20 games. The bigger issue for Fiala’s production is that he has just three assists after he had 31 assists in 64 games last season.

#17 Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having the best season of his career, at least through 16 games. He leads the league with a .943 save percentage and his .926 save percentage during 4-on-5 play and .942 save percentage during 5-on-5 play are the high-water marks for his career.

#18 While the shot and expected goal rates have been similar to previous seasons, Fleury has reaped the rewards of outstanding penalty killing from the Golden Knights so far this season. See the difference of Vegas’ on-ice results during 4-on-5 play with Fleury in net compared to last season. There has been a dramatic decline in Corsi, shots, and expected goals against.

2019-2020 (4-on-5): 97.9 CA/60, 50.8 SA/60, 6.04 xGA/60

2020-2021 (4-on-5): 70.2 CA/60, 27.9 SA/60, 3.93 xGA/60

#19 Philadelphia defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has climbed out of the doghouse and is playing much more aggressively. A healthy scratch early in the season, Gostisbehere has five points (4 G, 1 A) with 31 shots on goal in the past eight games. Among defensemen who have played at least minutes in 5-on-4 situations this season, Gostisbehere has the highest rate of Corsi/60 (32.4), shots/60 (19.9), and expected goals/60 (1.56).

#20 Other defensemen that have high shot rates yet are still available in fantasy leagues: Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, and New Jersey’s P.K. Subban.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

Express Laine – Winnipeg Jets 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:22:27 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Winnipeg Jets entered the 2017-18 season as a team that looked dangerous offensively with a promising young group of forwards that featured Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers, but there was a lot of uncertainty about how they would fare at their own end of the ice.

A breakout performance from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in 2017-18 elevated the Winnipeg Jets from being an interesting team with upside to a serious contender. He finished second in Vezina Trophy voting with a 2.36 GAA and .924 save percentage in 67 games. Meanwhile, the Jets had one of the league’s top offenses, led by a 91-point campaign by Blake Wheeler and a 44-goal showing out of Laine. Winnipeg had a 52-20-10 record in the regular season and made it to the Western Conference Final before the Vegas Golden Knights eliminated the Jets in five games.

TAKE TWO – Given that the Jets are a largely young group that took a major step forward last season, the summer was unsurprisingly dedicated to maintenance rather than additions.

Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck, coming off a one-year, $2.25 million contract, was rewarded for his breakout performance with a six-year, $37 million extension. The Jets are taking a risk there given that Hellebuyck only has 149 total NHL games on his resume and his first two campaigns were a mixed bag, but he’s also just 25-years-old and that contract will look very good if Hellebuyck manages to stay at anything close to the level he showed in 2017-18.

Wheeler received the other big payday. He signed a five-year, $41.25 million contract that starts with the 2019-20 campaign. Wheeler is arguably one of the more overlooked stars in the league given that he ranks fifth in points over the past three campaigns with 243 in 245 games. Only Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nikita Kucherov have outperformed Wheeler in terms of points over that span.

With those two locked up, the Jets now have six forwards (Wheeler, Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, and Adam Lowry), two defensemen (Dustin Byfuglien and Tucker Poolman) and their starting goaltender (Hellebuyck) all locked up through at least 2021-22. It’s a luxury to have that much of their core locked up, but the flipside is that the Jets have committed $47.25 million in cap space to nine players over each of the next three seasons and those nine don’t even include some of their potentially most expensive players.

WILL THERE BE A TAKE THREE? – Given that the Jets are still a relatively young team it seems odd to look at 2018-19 as a do-or-die season for them, but the reality of the salary cap does present that question, at least to some extent. It’s unlikely that the Jets will be a bad team in 2019-20, but could 2018-19 be their peak? That’s not an unreasonable question.

After all, this is the last season that Laine will be tethered to an entry-level contract. He already has 80 goals and 134 points in 155 games and when you look at the contracts that other star players got immediately following their ELC in recent years like Connor McDavid (eight-years, $100 million), Jack Eichel (eight-years, $80 million), and Leon Draisaitl (eight-years, $68 million), you can quickly get a sense that Laine’s payday will be massive.

This will also be the final season of Kyle Connor’s entry-level contract. He’s not going to get a contract close to Laine’s, but Connor had 31 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2017-18, so he won’t be cheap either. Then there’s the question of defenseman Jacob Trouba, who has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries already, but is also one of the pillars of their blueline when healthy. He’s on a one-year, $5.5 million contract for 2018-19 and will be a restricted free agent after that.

Even if the Jets manage to keep all of those players without exceeding the cap, they will have to make sacrifices elsewhere. One of the first could be Tyler Myers, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019 and already looks like something of a longshot to re-sign given the Jets’ other priorities.

OUTLOOK – A big factor for the 2018-19 Jets will naturally be Hellebuyck. If he proves that 2017-18 was a sign of what he can do for years to come, then Winnipeg will be one of the league’s most dangerous teams this season. Even without him playing like an elite goaltender, the Jets will still be able to generate a ton of wins through offense alone, but another standout season from Hellebuyck is likely what it would take for the Jets to enjoy another long playoff run.