Brett Connolly – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/1/21 – Ekblad, Hintz, Laine, Gostisbehere, McCann, Hoffman, Robertson and more ..

Scott Cullen — Thu, 01 Apr 2021 14:18:37 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look at the Panthers in the wake of Aaron Ekblad’s injury; Roope Hintz, Adam Fox, Shayne Gostisbehere, Patrik Laine, Mike Hoffman, Jason Robertson and more.

#1 The broken leg suffered by Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is a heavy loss for a playoff team that was getting solid play at 5-on-5, with the lowest shots against rates (45.8 CA/60) of his career, but he was really making a difference on the power play, where he had tied his career-high with six goals and was two points away from his career-high of 13 power play points, set during his rookie season in 2014-2015.

#2 The Panthers power play was one of the rare first units that was still running with two defensemen, Ekblad and Keith Yandle. Now that Patric Hornqvist is also out, after getting crushed by Chicago defenseman Nikita Zadorov, and Aleksander Barkov remains out with a lower-body injury, the Panthers have a revamped power play that still includes Keith Yandle and Jonathan Huberdeau but has roles for Carter Verhaeghe, Frank Vatrano, and Alexander Wennberg. Even Brett Connolly and Owen Tippett saw some time with that first unit.

#3 If there is a player who will get tested in Ekblad’s absence, it may be MacKenzie Weegar, who has had stellar defensive metrics in the past two seasons, most of which he has spent playing alongside Ekblad. Since the start of last season, that pairing has been on the ice for more than 54% of shot attempts, more than 55% of expected goals, and 58% of goals during 5-on-5 play. This while starting more shifts in the defensive zone and more frequently facing the opposition’s top forwards.

#4 Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz has taken a step forward this season though each step forward seems to come with at least a shuffle back while Hintz does tend to miss games with injuries. He has recorded points in nine of his past 10 games, scoring 13 points (7 G, 6 A) while launching 29 shots on goal in that time. Hintz has played 23 of 33 games this season and that is really the only issue to diminish his accomplishments. If he had played more games, his production would be recognized far and wide. Hintz has scored 1.44 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play this season which ranks 11^th among 380 forwards to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes.

#5 Lest you think that Hintz is only a dynamo during 5-on-5 play, Hintz is also the points/60 leader during 5-on-4 situations this season, too, with 11.26 points/60. Martin Necas (10.31), Eeli Tolvanen (10.01), Dominik Kubalik (9.93), and Victor Hedman (9.85) are the next most efficient point producers among skaters with more than 50 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time.

#6 New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox is on fire. He has 15 points (2 G, 13 A) during an eight-game point streak. In that two-week span, since March 17, the Rangers are tied with the Colorado Avalanche as the highest scoring team in the league with 4.50 goals/60 in all situations.

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 20: Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Patrik Laine (29) with the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20th, 2021 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire)

#7 In his first 10 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Patrik Laine scored six goals and added four assists. 10 points in 10 games is pretty good, right? It is. But Laine also had just 18 shots on goal in those 10 games, a remarkably low shot rate for a player who had established in his first four NHL seasons that he needed to get shots in order to provide value. He has never been a great 5-on-5 player in the NHL, so it has been imperative that he either get shooting opportunities in those situations or on the power play in order to reap the rewards of his tremendous shot. In the 17 games since his decent start in Columbus, Laine has one goal (scored on the power play) and three assists, with 33 shots on goal. There were skeptics in the immediate aftermath of the trade, suggesting that a John Tortorella-Patrik Laine pairing would encounter some rocky waters but this has been even worse than the harshest critics could have predicted.

#8 Alex Ovechkin is noted far and wide as the triggerman on the Washington Capitals power play and he has produced just over 35 shot attempts/60 during 5-on-4 play this season. There are six skaters generating an even higher rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts: David Perron (44.7), Mika Zibanejad (39.4), Nikolaj Ehlers (38.2), Kyle Connor (38.2), Dominik Kubalik (37.5), and Adrian Kempe (35.0).

#9 The defenseman with the highest rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts (minimum 50 minutes) is Dougie Hamilton (30.5), ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (29.2), Drew Doughty (28.9), Aaron Ekblad (28.7), Cale Makar (28.3), and Shea Weber (28.2).

#10 Gostisbehere cleared waivers this week, probably because he has two more years left on his contract, but in his past 16 games for the Flyers, Gostisbehere has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 46 shots on goal. 167 defensemen played at least 200 total minutes in that time and Gostisbehere had a higher rate of shot attempts and shots per minute than any of them.

#11 In that time, the Flyers also had an all-situations save percentage of .848 with Gostisbehere on the ice. Believe it or not, there were three defensemen who have had worse save percentages in that time (since February 24): Gostisbehere’s Philadelphia teammates Philippe Myers (.824) and Travis Sanheim (.834) as well as Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin (.834).

#12 The forwards with the most even-strength ice time without a secondary assist at evens this season: Anze Kopitar, Andrew Mangiapane, Max Domi, and Evgeni Dadonov. Given the unsustainable nature of secondary assists these players might be due for better in that category, but it also might be too late to salvage the overall production of Domi and Dadonov.

#13 There are four defensemen to play at least 400 even-strength minutes and still not have a secondary assist this season: Jani Hakanpaa, Andy Greene, Matthew Benning, and Shayne Gostisbehere.

#14 There are some notable defensemen that have played more than 500 even-strength minutes and have just one secondary assist, including Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Shea Weber.

#15 Forwards that have the highest rate of secondary assists during even strength minutes (minimum 400 minutes): Gabriel Landeskog (1.45 per 60), James van Riemsdyk (1.42), Jack Roslovic (1.35), Evgeni Malkin (1.26), and Patrice Bergeron (1.15). While Landeskog and Bergeron quite notably have elite linemates, van Riemsdyk and Roslovic appear to be good candidates for regression.

#16 With Malkin out of the lineup, the Penguins have needed Jared McCann to step up and provide secondary offense and McCann has done just that. Since returning to from injury, McCann has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. He has 3.24 primary points/60 this month, which ranks fifth among skaters to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, Connor McDavid, and Mikko Rantanen are the only players with a higher primary points/60 in March.

#17 Last offseason was a strange one for free agency, and it resulted in some proven scorers taking short-term deals, presumably so that they could potentially hit a healthier free agent market after another productive season. That might have been the plan but that is not how it ultimately has turned out for St. Louis Blues winger Mike Hoffman, who has one goal, one assist, and 17 shots on goal in his past 10 games, which earned him a trip to the press box. Hoffman’s individual rates – shot attempts/60, shots/60, expected goals/60, goals/60, points/60 – are all at career lows.

#18 The Blues have been getting outshot handily with Hoffman on the ice (45.8 CF%) and it is not because of his defensive shortcomings, as might be expected, rather it is that when Hoffman is on the ice the Blues are not generating enough offense. Hoffman has moved around the lineup a lot – eight Blues have played more than 50 5-on-5 minutes with Hoffman – and his most common linemate, Brayden Schenn, had terrible results with him (39.4 CF%). Would the Blues, now healthier up front, move Hoffman before the trade deadline?

#19 Goalies with the best all-situations save percentage in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Casey DeSmith (.969), Juuse Saros (.963), Igor Shesterkin (.941), Thatcher Demko (.937), Philipp Grubauer (.936), Kaapo Kahkonen (.934), Alex Nedeljkovic (.934), Carey Price (.931), Tristan Jarry (.928), and Jaroslav Halak (.925).

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 13: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) controls the puck in the second period during the regular season NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs on February 13, 2020 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

#20 Stars rookie winger Jason Robertson has forced his way into a bigger role by producing at an elite level. He was eased into the lineup early, playing less than 12 minutes in six of his first 12 games but as Robertson started to get some points, his role expanded and then as other Stars got injured, Robertson has emerged as a crucial part of the team’s offense. He has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 47 shots on goal in the past 16 games. While shots were hard to come by when he wasn’t playing so much, Robertson has now recorded at least three shots on goal in each of his past eight games.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Capital One – Washington Capitals 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:32:25 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – Throughout the Alex Ovechkin era, the Washington Capitals have fielded strong teams that have fallen apart in the playoffs. Washington exceeded 100 points six times over the span of nine seasons from 2008-09 through 2016-17 and didn’t make it past the second round once. They even secured back-to-back Presidents’ Trophies in 2015-16 and 2016-17 only to be eliminated in the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins each time.

Expectations were a little lower for Washington in 2017-18 after their cap situation led to the Capitals giving up Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams, Daniel Winnik, and Karl Alzner in the summer of 2017 while Nate Schmidt went over to Vegas in the expansion draft and Kevin Shattenkirk left Washington after being a midseason acquisition for the Capitals’ 2017 playoff push. With all that talent lost, the Capitals did take a bit of a step back in the regular season with a still impressive 49-26-7 record, but their core of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Braden Holtby clicked in the playoffs to lead Washington to its first Stanley Cup championship.

NO EXODUS – While Washington is a team up against the cap, its core will still be around to defend the championship. Re-signing John Carlson was their biggest task after he scored 15 goals and 68 points in 82 games last season while averaging 24:47 minutes per game. Washington was ultimately able to secure him to an eight-year, $64 million contract. To make that work, the Capitals unloaded the final season of Brooks Orpik’s five-year, $27.5 million contract to the Colorado Avalanche in a trade that also involved Washington trading Philipp Grubauer, who was a restricted free agent and had become overqualified for the backup gig he was stuck with in Washington.

Colorado then bought out Orpik’s contract, which eventually led to Washington bringing back the veteran defenseman on a one-year, $1 million contract that contains another $500,000 in potential performance bonuses.

Braden Holtby

Thanks to that maneuvering, the Capitals’ 2018-19 roster will be almost exactly the same as it was in 2017-18, minus Grubauer and Jay Beagle, who signed with Vancouver after scoring seven goals and 22 points in 79 games last season. The loss of their backup goaltender isn’t inconsequential though, especially given that Holtby struggled at times in 2017-18 and posted a 2.99 GAA and .907 save percentage in 54 regular season starts, which would have been a major talking point if not for his strong play in the postseason.

Pheonix Copley is expected to get an opportunity to serve as the backup goaltender and while he might be adequate in that role, he’s not the strong fallback option that Philipp Grubauer was. So the Capitals are going into the season without much of a safety net in that regard.

THE TODD REIRDEN ERA – While the team on the ice is largely the same, the bench will look very different. Veteran head coach Barry Trotz decided to leave the Washington Capitals immediately after leading them to a championship in favor of signing with the New York Islanders. In his place, Todd Reirden, was elevated to the head coaching position.

Reirden had been a member of Washington’s coaching staff for the last four seasons and served as an associate coach for the last two, so he seemed like a natural successor under the circumstances. Rather than be tasked with shaking things up, as is often the case with a new head coach, the goal here is for Reirden to provide a seamless transition from the Trotz era to his reign.

He has the burden of expectations, but is also inheriting a golden opportunity given the talented group he’ll get to work with.

OUTLOOK – When everything is working out for the Capitals, they have some of the top offensive weapons in the league, a strong defense, and an elite goaltender. There are times when some of those elements seem to be absent and even when they are firing on all cylinders, there are a handful of teams that can potentially stand up to them. It’s also important to note that successfully defending a championship is incredibly hard in the NHL. Pittsburgh managed to do it, but before the Penguins, the last team with back-to-back championships were the Detroit Red Wings back in 1997 and 1998. Still, the Capitals’ championship group has been left almost entirely intact and they remain in their prime, so they have to be regarded as one of the league’s top teams.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Top Line Additions

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 03 Nov 2015 13:03:24 +0000

As the season progresses we are starting to see some trends that can have a strong impact on your fantasy hockey team but a keen waiver wire addition. There are players who have suddenly found themselves either on their team’s top line or with a plum fantasy line mate and are widely available. Some rookies have survived the nine game mark and are now worth investing in and there are always injuries and call ups to keep an eye on.

Benoit Pouliot – Edmonton Oilers, Left Wing 39% owned

While Connor McDavid and Nail Yakupov are widely owned across fantasy leagues, Pouliot is the third man in on that line and number 67 has shown to have some chemistry with number 97 and at only 39% owned is available in many leagues. Coming off a five game point streak don’t sleep on Pouliot.

Pascal Dupuis – Pittsburgh Penguins, Left Wing 31% owned

The Crosby – Kessel combination that many thought would be deadly has failed to click early on and Sid is struggling. As a result, he has been reunited with his old running mate who is healthy again in Pascal Dupuis. Along with Patrick Hornqvist on that line it is only a matter of time before Crosby breaks out and if Dupuis is along for the ride, you want to own him.

Ryan Garbutt – Chicago Blackhawks, Right Wing 15% owned

No, Ryan Garbutt has not scored a goal yet this season, and has only one assist. So why is he on the waiver wire list? He does have 25 shots and 34 hits in ten games and has found himself playing on a line with Jonathan Toews and Teuvo Teravainen. He is generating scoring chances and playing with quality line mates so expect the production to come shortly.

Colin Miller – Boston Bruins, Defence 28% owned

Perhaps you were sleeping on Colton Parayko and missed out on this years John Klingberg, if so step right up and grab Colin Miller. Miller has three points in the last three games, is paired with Zdeno Chara and has worked his way into the Bruins top four. It is not a fluke either as Miller was a key piece in the Lucic deal. He was the second highest scoring defenceman last year in the AHL with the Calder winning Monarchs. He was a sleeper heading into the season, but don’t sleep on him now.

Victor Rask – Carolina Hurricanes, Centre 36% owned

Rask is centering the top line with Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal, which is as god as it gets in Carolina. Rask had an impressive rookie season scoring 33 points and should have no trouble eclipsing that as the Canes top centre this year. His three point game against Tampa on Sunday may be a harbinger of things to come.

Brett Connolly – Boston Bruins, Right Wing 36% owned

Connolly has found himself on a red hot line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand and has a six game point streak to show for it. The 2010 first round pick of Tampa has fallen under the radar as a result of injuries which slowed his development. Still only 23 he could have a breakout season and be a great value add as a waiver or free agent claim.

Torrey Mitchell – Montreal Canadiens, Right Wing 34% owned

Mitchell has been red hot this season for the Habs with nine points in 13 games including a current four game point streak. He is very valuable in leagues that count peripheral categories as well as he has produced 20 penalty minutes, 14 hits, 10 blocks 18 shots and is a plus -6.

Paul Byron – Montreal Canadiens, Centre 6% owned

For those of you in super deep leagues, Byron was claimed off waiver from Calgary by Montreal and has three points in his first three games. Both his goals are shorthanded goals to boot for leagues that have multi category scoring. Byron is centering a line with Torrey Mitchell and DSP.

All ownership numbers based on Fantrax leagues

All line combinations are from Frozen pools via Dobber Hockey

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: The Last Ride?

Chris Wassel — Thu, 09 Apr 2015 01:33:01 +0000

A funny thing happens this time of year and no it is not Spring. However, thoughts immediately turn to the second season while still worrying about the end of the regular season. So many things happen in the final week and it can get quite chaotic. This year is a little unique in the sense that the NHL hits Game 82 for all on a Saturday. It is not unprecedented by any means but it has been awhile.

There are obvious problems with this. Now in rotisserie leagues, no one really cares much because you play until the end anyway. However, in head to head leagues that are going this week, it is a six day week and most major fantasy platforms have pro-rated your moves, etc. It makes a difference when you look at it. So you can take a guess what one of the questions that came my way because it came with a lot of venom from some. Who could blame them?

Okay let's begin.....

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag

What are your thoughts on playing the last week of the regular season in fantasy hockey?

Since there are multiple ways to play these days and now daily fantasy hockey as well, there are at least three different ways to answer this.

DFS -- This one is simple. I do not really like it but I will play away on Wednesday and Saturday. Friday's two game slate is just not that appealing and honestly Tuesday is not all that good and Thursday is not optimal either. Think of this as torture. No one knows when players like Zdeno Chara will return just yet or if other injuries will occur. Daily is far tougher to gauge as well because it is a one day contest. If someone unexpectedly sits, that goose egg resonates throughout your lineup. It also means one probably does not cash. No $$$ is bad news as they say. Players will also be "shut down" for minor things so expect that too.

Roto/Points -- Honestly, I do not mind the last week all that much. It is like playing through the string. You expect it in rotisserie leagues. That 15 game Saturday slate is going to decide a lot of leagues. Personally, I am in a few myself and the difference in money will literally come down to probably the late games. That is how you want a league to end honestly. It is so much more fun when things come to a thrilling conclusion and not just a whimper. Some will like quiet thrashings but they are not exciting for everyone. The leagues you talk about are the ones that keep you on the edge of your seat and roster moves right down to the wire.

H2H -- NO! This cannot be emphasized enough. NO! It was bad enough I made a mistake in my own personal league and had this, not realizing it until it was too late. Granted there are a couple playoff races left and some seeding to be determined but all that needs to occur is a few players sitting and that kills a finalist at the most crucial moment. There is nothing more agonizing to see a whole season down the drain because Carey Price had to rest on a Saturday. I am not going to say that will happen but hypothetically it is possible. This is why next year I will make sure every league ends the week before the regular season ends. Call it a lesson learned in remembering dates.

Okay....we have time for one more.....

So which player(s) may influence lines and fantasy production this week?

It has to be the Florida Panthers first line of Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Aleksander Barkov for daily fantasy. Yes they only play two games but those should be impact filled. Now if it is season long in any format, it is the hope that Marko Dano of the Columbus Blue Jackets is on the second line at some point this week. He is fun to watch and worth the gamble. Also keep an eye on whatever line Brett Connolly is on for Boston this week as they end their regular season on the road.

Finally, the Rangers should see something from the Kevin Hayes line this week and maybe he is still on waivers somewhere. The kid is good and does have that exuberance and skill you want to see. He has not hit the wall needless to say.

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Next week's edition will be later in the week due to the break between the playoffs and end of the regular season. Good luck, thanks for reading, and as always you can follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS.

Monday Mailbag

Darren Kennedy — Mon, 26 May 2014 12:24:10 +0000

A regular piece where you guys do all the work. And an excuse for us to watch endless old Seinfeld clips. If you’ve got a question for next week’s mailbag you can shoot it in to darren.kennedy@mckeenshockey.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL6ubXD9ZjY&feature=kp

Our very first Monday Mailbag at Mckeen’s. If all goes well (and you guys send countless emails to the editor championing the article) this will be a regular piece. At least once a month during the summer and then we’ll aim for bi-weekly during the 2014-15 season.

I’m pretty much open to anything content-wise. If you want to talk about the new Spiderman movie and how Hollywood may have finally oversaturated our senses with unnecessary superhero flicks – that’s fine. If you’re frustrated by Zdeno Chara while playing NHL 14 for XBOX then heck, I want to hear from you (I’ve spent main nights cursing his cheat-code of a poke check myself)

Or, if you want to stick to fantasy hockey questions, well, that’s good too.

On to today’s mailbag…

Do you see Rick Nash bouncing back next season? Why/Why Not? Also, are any of the player profiles updated for next year yet?

I had a chance to connect with the team and basically said “people are getting excited for the player profiles, when are they coming out?” Everyone has been knee deep in preparing for the NHL Draft Guide that’s coming out June 1^st. With that nearing completion the player profiles should be coming out soon. I realize “soon” is relatively vague BUT can assure you that it’s priority one.

As for Rick Nash, I’ve tried to remain as balanced as possible through what has been a pretty incredible season. It’s a roller coaster worthy of Six Flags. He begins the year as a guy coming off of 42 points and 176 shots in only 44 games. Then, a concussion. Some serious symptoms ensue. He returns eventually, but is plagued by poor play for an extended time. Everyone starts asking “Why did the Rangers even bring him in!?” Then he scores 11 goals in 11 games through January and we proudly pronounce he’s BACK. Of course he followed that up with a playoff slump and was actually BOOO’d at home. More recently he posted two goals and two games and as you might guess is a fan favourite again.

Being a fan is exhausting.

Long story short. Nash is 29 years old. He’s an incredible talent and is (still) generating shots at an elite rate. I imagine he’ll be back to his old ways of posting around 35 goals, 30 to 35 assists, and north of 300 shots in 2014-15. If you can draft him expecting that and resist the temptation to jump ship at the first sign of a four game slump, you should be satisfied.

With changes already happening in Pittsburgh, what do I do with James Neal in a full keeper deep Dynasty league of 16 teams?

I remember mentioning to a buddy (who ironically owned James Neal at the time) that of all the elite, top 10 guys in fantasy he scared me the most. My rationale was that his value is tied so intrinsically to Malkin.

Today, those fears are probably greater than they were then. In 13 games this post-season (some in which he DIDN’T skate with Evgeni) he posted only four points. Granted, he was saddled with an insanely low shooting percentage (4.1%) and we’re dealing with an exceedingly small sample size. Nonetheless, it troubles me.

With new rumors surfacing that he could be dealt this summer it might be time to explore trade options. I by no means advocate taking a discount. When Neal is performing there are maybe five guys capable of putting up similar numbers (40 goals, 300 shots…etc).

Just make sure you aren’t left holding the proverbial hot potato when said potato ends up shipped to the Predators.

What kind of number (G/A) are you expecting for the following players in the next 3 years?

1-J.Gaudreau

2-A.Lee

3-B.Nelson

4-E.Etem

5-B.Connolly

Oh geez, you’re making me do some research today! *turns metaphorical hat backwards, gets to work*

I think I’ll get myself into trouble putting projections to each of these guys. They’re all relatively young and have very little NHL experience. Trying to guess exact goals and assists totals is kind of like me tossing darts in a pitch black room. I’ll hit the board every once and while, but more than likely we’ll end up with holes in the wall.

I can, however, talk about my thoughts on each guy.

Anders Lee is an exciting option for a couple of reasons. He’s six foot three, can skate, and posted decent numbers in limited action last year (14 points in 22 games). Most impressively he had 68 shots (over three per game) which is really uncommon for a young player. There is the added bonus of playing for the Islanders – they don’t exactly scream DEPTH. If he performs well this coming year there is a chance he sees regular top six time. If that happens I don’t see why he couldn’t challenge 50 points and close to 200 shots.

Brett Connolly has been zigzagged around multiple teams the last few years. He probably was called up too early in 2011, then played in the World Juniors, then the AHL, then 11 games with Tampa in 2013-14. The good news is he had quality totals in the AHL last year (31 goals, 32 assists, in 71 contests). The bad news is he has probably been passed on the depth chart by a number of guys. My guess is that he ends up as a hybrid third/second liner in coming years who might see a bit of limited time on the second power play unit. He has a pedigree (drafted sixth overall) so that could change. But for now, his fantasy prospects are bleak.

Emerson Etem is a bit of a wild card. I say that because a lot of his production will be tied into where he plays. According to Dobber’s Frozen Pool he only skated four percent of his shifts (in the playoffs) with Perry and Getzlaf, while taking nearly half with Smith-Pelly and Bonino. That’s not BAD per se, but he’ll need to see more shifts with the big guys and increased power play time (only had 39 seconds a game in the regular season) if he’s going to have sustained production.

Last year Nelson pretty much did everything you hoped he would. Stuck in the NHL for a full season (72 games) and produced strong rookie numbers (26 points, 132 shots). Much like Lee I’d be watching reports out of training camp closely. If he’s in their top six then I’d add 15 or 20 percent to his projections. Otherwise, it’s likely another year of development where he hopefully takes a step towards 40 points and decent shot totals.

And finally, Mr. Gaudreau. Well, he has played one game in the NHL. Not exactly a HUGE sample but I’ll opine about his future regardless. His seven goals in seven games for the United States at the 2103 Word Juniors speaks to his offensive upside. He’s a bit undersized, although that’s becoming less and less of a consideration for me with each passing year. Calgary will be wide open next year (and for a few years, if we’re being honest) so he’ll have a chance to land significant playing time.

Somehow you tricked me into making actual projections. I can already see the hate tweets when Anders Lee ends up on Tavares’ line and posts 70 points… HAHAH, LOOK AT THIS ARTICLE FROM DARREN KENNEDY IN MAY, WHAT AN IDIOT!

Sigh, such is life as a hockey writer.

I’ve got two keeper spots left on my team and three players to decide between – Sharp, E.Staal, and Zetterberg. Who should I keep?

Situations like this always force me to think about who has the most “perceived” value in your pool. In terms of actual production, it’s Sharp. Chicago has their entire core coming back next year, meaning he’ll once again be posting strong point totals, a great plus minus, and terrific shots. However, Sharp is perhaps the most underrated superstar calibre asset in fantasy.

Staal and Zetterberg almost certainly carry greater name recognition and could probably fetch more via trade. Henrik is nearing 34 years old (which always scares poolies away), not young, but not exactly ancient either.

If it’s me, I’d gamble on the fact that both Sharp and Zetterberg have at least two or three solid years left and trade Staal, knowing that he’ll allow me to best address needs elsewhere.

Just a short one: which 2014 pick do you think will have the most immediate offensive impact?

The guy I’m most excited about is Leon Draisaitl. He’s got a bit of a bigger frame and a lot of offensive ability (105 points in 64 games for Prince Albert in the WHL last year). If he can somehow end up in Edmonton with their third pick it could be a nice fit. That said, I’d temper expectations for year one since he may not even be in the NHL.

Here is a compilation of Draisaitl highlights. Yeah, he’s alright.

First of all these are the players I've considering keeping in my 14 team, 14 keepers league, I just joined, made a lot of trades already and grabbed some young prospects before we declare keepers, to start a rebuild. Feeling pretty good and looking at contending 2 years from now. (K) next to my thoughts.

4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 1UTIL, 3 BENCH, 2IR

G:5 A:3 +/-:1 PIM: -0.2 PPG: 2 PPA: 1 SHG: 2 SHA: 1 HIT:0.2 BLK:0.2

I know, no shots, and PIM are negative. Strange.

C: Toews(K), Turris(K), E. Staal(K), Barkov

LW: E. Kane(K), Landeskog(K), Teravainen

RW: Simmonds(K), Voracek(K), Eberle(K), Doan

D: Hedman(K), Letang(K), Trouba(K)

G: Rinne(K), Howard(K), Elliott(K), Neuvirth

1. There seems to have been very few goalies that can consistently maintain solid numbers (à la Lundqvist), and there also seems to be a few goalies each season that come from nowhere and surprise everyone (Bishop, Varlamov). With that being said, I have Elliott, Howard, Rinne, Neuvirth, in a 14 team keeper, keeping 14 players. Wondering if I should bother keeping Neuvirth since it is a 14 team league and goalies are hot commodities, or trade him as part of a package saying how he has a good chance to start in BUF. Elliott I'm also not 100% on with the emergence of Allen but for now I like him. I don't really have room to try get Allen and do the time share thing with the forward depth I want to keep.

2. A guy like Barkov, I really like him and think he will be a stud. But he has really nothing for linemates and don't know if he worth keeping at this point or revisiting the possibility next year, or drafting him late if I can.

3. I tried my best to attain a solid couple guys in each position aged 23-26 that will be great for the foreseeable future. Do you think with these keepers I'm setting myself up for success in the future or are there any specific areas I should address or players you think I should target?

4. No one really wants to trade for Doan, but in our league he has been one if the more decent RW on a per game basis. I don't exactly have room to keep him but should I try make a 2 for 1 for an elite guy and keep him or just let him go since he doesn't match up with my time frame at all?

You win this week’s award for the longest email and I blame you for the fact my word count is out of control (almost 2700!). Although who am I kidding, I always love the detailed notes that show you poolies have been putting a ton of thought into making decisions strategically.

In a 14 team league your tenders are actually pretty good. Normally I wouldn’t recommend keeping Elliot or Neuvirth. That said, in a pool such as this, they’ll carry massive value if they can somehow land regular playing time. Worth the risk.

If your objective is to win in two years, which is reasonable, then you likely need to keep Barkov. Florida’s core could be something special in two years if their key pieces keep developing. Barkov has a pretty open laneway to their first line center position, which will come with loads of cushy power play time.

Overall you’ve done a great job acquiring guys with overlapping prime years, which is the key to a rebuild. Everyone doesn’t necessarily have to be in their mid-twenties though. My advice is don’t be afraid to add another guy like Staal (or even a Spezza, Marleau, Thornton-type) who may be on the decline, but will still be a consistent option in two years’ time. If you can keep this group together, with a couple of small adjustments, there is no reason you won’t be contending in 18 to 24 months.

Oh Shane Doan. He seems to have spent his entire career being perpetually underrated. Sadly, at age 37 (soon to be 38), there isn’t really a next chapter to his career. He had a nice season in 2013-14 (47 points in 69 games) and you should probably move to send him out while there is still some residual value left.

What are new stats like corsi, pdo, ipp etc? Where do I go to get the best info to help me understand these stats and if my team is going to be any good with these new stats.

Just want to learn how to take in all this new information for stats. Is there a site to generate these for entire NHL league or do you have to manually do it?

This is a great question and one that comes up a lot. It’s something I’ve been wrestling with the past few years. A two-step process – making sure I actually understand each new “fancy” statistic and then working to layer it into my fantasy evaluations.

Here are some helpful resources.

The guys over at Artic Ice Hockey put together a number of posts detailing various advanced stats. If you read through all of these it should give you an introduction to most stats and what they can (and often can’t) tell us.
Sean McIndoe has an awesome Faker’s Guide to Advanced Statsitics in the NHL over at Grantland. This lays out all the basics in a clear and concise format. And of course no one is a more enjoyable read than Sean.
If you’re looking to review data, as opposed to reading about these stats, the easiest site to use is Extra Skater. They have loads of data that can be easily sliced by team or player as needed. I could (and have) spent hours on this site, it’s incredible the depth of information available.

There are a few other resources you could use. But for now, as a starter package, that should suffice (plus it forces you to send me a follow up question for our next mailbag…. Muhaha)

We made it. The inaugural Mckeen’s mailbag. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions and comments this week. A free tip for future iterations. If your question contains anything relating to, or POSSIBLY relating to Valeri Nichushkin you will almost certainly be published. He’s my fantasy hockey kryptonite. Heck I’d do a weekly post on just him if the editors would let me (they probably won’t let me).

Make sure to check us out on Facebook where we’ll be posting regular content.

Cheers,

Darren is a fantasy hockey writer for McKeen's and Dobber Hockey. You can find on twitter @fantasyhockeydk or on his couch watching old reruns of Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Tampa Bay looks to future in Syracuse

Robert Howard — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 20:49:49 +0000

The future is on the ice for Tampa in another lost season. After winning 6 of their first 7 games the bottom fell out for the Lightning, losing 16 of the next 24, to bring the end of Guy Boucher’s tenure. His replacement, Jon Cooper, brings an impressive resume of winning at all levels he has coached. The Syracuse Crunch was in first place when he took the Lightning job. Last season he led the Norfolk Admirals (Tampa’s AHL affiliate in 2011-12) and manufactured a miraculous, record breaking, 28 game winning streak to make the playoffs and go on to win the Calder cup. His success in the organization made him stand out, but his familiarity with many of the Lightning’s near-term building blocks, cinched Yzerman’s decision. He has a deep familiarity with Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Richard Panik, Brett Connolly, Ondrej Palat, Radko Gudas, and Dana Tyrrell, all now part of the NHL line-up. Their development is critical to the Lightning’s chances next year and Cooper has proven he can win with them.

With a Lecavalier buy out likely this summer, there will be a reshuffling of the top six in Tampa. Stamkos turns 24 next year, and with St. Louis, provides elite level scoring. Lining up with them is an opportunity for one or two of these players to take a meaningful step forward next year into a scoring role.

They have just re-assigned Johnson and Connolly to Syracuse to take part in the playoff run. They will be given every opportunity to fill an offensive role next season and this time in the AHL will only benefit both their development.

The Lightning had a spirited showing against Washington rebounding from a 5 to 1 deficit on Saturday, with Panik producing a remarkable 3 point effort and some grit. Fatigue showed in a flat effort against Buffalo the next night, but it is clear the trust coach Cooper has in his AHL contingent in the ice time he is providing them. For example, Gudas is playing 16 minutes a game in key situations, Johnson playing 13 minutes on a regular shift and Panik is averaging over 12 minutes in April.

Here are some quick notes on the three young prospects that could seize this opportunity with Panik making a case to be included with each strong NHL start.

Cooper has shown tremendous confidence in Alex Killorn, 32-7-11-18, who has averaged over 17 minutes a game this season and watched it jump to over 20 minutes a game under his new coach. He is seeing regular time with St. Louis and Stamkos, averaging 2 minutes a game on the power play, and 1 minute on the penalty kill. He is responsible defensively and aggressive in the offensive zone, drawing penalties on occasion, and providing a complementary role to the two superstars. 23 years old, he joined Norfolk and Cooper for the playoffs in 2012, after 4 years at Harvard. He started this season with Syracuse and was a likely candidate for the all-rookie team in the AHL after scoring 40 points in 44 games before his NHL call up. Killorn will also appear on some long lists for top rookie in the NHL. He has made his case for a top six role and should be a good late round fantasy pick next season.

Brett Connolly has seen limited action this season and will benefit from time spent in Syracuse, whom he is tied for the team lead in scoring, 68-30-30-60. After disappointing season in the NHL in 2011-12, but a strong performance at the World Juniors that season, Tampa felt more development time was needed. The former 6^th overall pick in 2010 has star potential and a good playoff in the AHL should see him receive the invitation to the Lightning training camp in the fall he did not get this year. His role will be top 6, or he will see more time in the AHL, but a scoring role in the NHL is coming sooner rather than later.

Tyler Johnson, is a small dynamic winger, that went undrafted, similar to Cory Conacher. Conacher's departure to Ottawa opens up a golden opportunity for Johnson. Currrently tied with Connolly for the team scoring lead in Syracuse, 60-33-27-60, he was also an important contributor in the 2012 playoffs for Cooper and the Norfolk Admirals with 14 points in 14 games. Winning championships together forges trust. His enthusiasm for his new coach is evident in this quote from an article by Damian Cristodero of the Tampa Bay Times shortly after Cooper was hired.

"It's going to be fast-paced hockey, quick transitions, aggressive in the offensive and even in the defensive zones and create as much speed as possible," Johnson said. "I really enjoy playing for him. He gives you a lot of room to make the skill plays you need to make and he creates a lot of speed. It's awesome to play under him."

When a 24 year old talent like Stamkos, with the ability to win a scoring championship, is the building block of your franchise then a quick turnaround is always a possibility. Keep an eye on this team for some potential break out candidates in 2013-14.