cam atkinson – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 16:00:01 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO - JANUARY 14: Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) during a game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the St. Louis Blues on January 14, 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

The Lighting had 98 points (45-29-8) in the regular season and lost in the first round of the playoffs for a second straight year. They had enough high-end skill to be competitive, but with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy not having his best season, they were not realistically among the top contenders. The Lightning ranked 15th in Corsi (50.7%) and 21st in expected goals percentage (49.1%) which certainly did not provide the foundation for a Stanley Cup championship. What the Lightning did have was an exceptional power play that scored a league-leading 10.98 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. That masked a lot of the Lightning’s mediocrity. They also tied for fourth in penalty killing, allowing a mere 5.99 goals against per 60 minutes, so the season was a special teams success albeit not much else.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Lightning legend Steve Stamkos departed for Nashville in free agency, but the the team brought in Jake Guentzel, who finished last season in Carolina after years skating alongside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. The Lightning also added veterans Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons in free agency. Trade deadline pickup Anthony Duclair signed with the Islanders as a free agent and winger Tanner Jeannot landed in Los Angeles via trade. Defenceman Calvin De Haan signed as a free agent in Colorado. Tampa Bay made a couple of big moves on the blueline, trading to re-acquire Ryan McDonagh from Nashville and then sending Mikhail Sergachev to Utah in a deal that brought J.J. Moser in return. Is that enough to take the Lightning into a deeper playoff run?

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? For a team that has won two Stanley Cups and lost once more in the Final in the past five seasons, the only real success would be another Stanley Cup. However, for a team that has lost in the first round in back-to-back years, there is a smaller case ‘w’ to be earned by winning a round in the playoffs and getting back into the mix of teams that reach the final eight or final four before even worrying about another championship. For that to happen, the Lightning will need Vasilevskiy back in peak form and the players in the supporting cast will need to contribute consistently. This is possible, but maybe not the most likely outcome.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Because the Lightning roster is top heavy, an injury to one of the premier players – Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Vasilevskiy – could be difficult to overcome. The Lightning team doesn’t have the depth that the team did in 2020-21 when Kucherov missed the regular season and roared into the postseason to lead the playoffs in scoring on the way to winning the Stanley Cup. Vasilevskiy’s injury at the start of last season was difficult for Tampa Bay to overcome and as this team that does not typically invest a lot in its backup goaltender, Vasilevskiy’s importance to their success is even more than you might otherwise expect.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: This Lightning team is star-laden, and the big names are the ones driving the train, so any breakout candidates are likely to do so in supporting roles. A player like Michael Eyssimont is interesting, in that he is a late bloomer who will be 28 this season and has played 136 games in the NHL. What he has shown in that time is that he plays hard, will generate shots, and is not shy about playing a physical game when it comes to hits or fights, if need be. He plays with real commitment, likely forged by his battle just to reach the league, and if he gets a little bit of opportunity, he could provide secondary scoring for Tampa Bay.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	80	116	1.41

Since the 2017-2018 season, Kucherov has racked up 639 points in 440 games, which ranks fourth in the NHL across that time frame. His 1.45 points per game ranks second, behind only Connor McDavid. Kucherov is a brilliant passer, who recorded 100 assists on his way to leading the league with 144 points in 2023-2024, the second time in his career that he earned the Art Ross Trophy. Kucherov played a career-high 21:40 per game last season, recording a career-high 3.78 shots on goal per game. His increased shot volume made him even more dangerous, leading to a career-high 44 goals, even though his shooting percentage (14.4 percent) was right in line with his career numbers. On top of playing the game with sublime skill, Kucherov also has an undercurrent of edgy play. He only had 22 penalty minutes and 45 hits last season, but he is not shy about taking a run at someone who he feels has wronged him on the ice, so he knows when to pick his spots. While Kucherov is a scoring threat in all situations, he has recorded at least 50 power-play points in back-to-back seasons, the only NHLer to reach that threshold in both years. Kucherov is one of the few players in the league who has a legitimate chance to win the scoring title and going into 2024-2025, it’s fair for the Lightning to expect 35-40 goals and 120 points from the playmaking winger.

Brayden Point

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	50	42	92	1.12

Tampa Bay’s No. 1 centre is coming off the third season of his career in which he finished with more than 40 goals and at least 90 points. He scored on more than 20 percent of his shots for the second consecutive season. Although the puck was moving in the right direction with Point on the ice, the Lighting were outscored during five-on-five play when Point was on the ice, so there is clearly room for improvement in terms of overall impact during even-strength play. His on-ice expected goals percentage of 50.7 was the lowest of his career, so it might warrant a tiny bit of caution for Point’s production moving forward. This is not to suggest that a player coming off back-to-back seasons with 90-plus points is somehow a risky pick, only that if Point can’t turn around the play-driving results, it would seem less likely that he could continue to score at the same rate, especially considering the high percentages that were responsible for his 2023-2024 production. At the same time, so long as Point has Kucherov on his wing and Point is getting first-unit power play time with such an elite scoring winger, the points should be there. That should lead Point to 40-45 goals and 85-90 points during the 2024-2025 campaign.

Jake Guentzel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	40	48	88	1.13

When he first arrived in the National Hockey League, there was a tendency to dismiss Guentzel’s early production as a function of his playing with Sidney Crosby. Certainly, playing with Crosby did not hurt Guentzel, but he has established his own credentials as a scoring winger, and it was highlighted when he was traded to Carolina last season. Guentzel put up 25 points in 17 games for the Hurricanes (adding four goals and nine points in 11 playoff games) and it must be noted that Crosby did not play for the ‘Canes. Guentzel is not the strongest, not the fastest, and does not have the hardest shot. However, he is a smart and competitive player who consistently puts himself into dangerous scoring positions and it has led to big-time production. From 2018-2019 through last season, Guentzel had 410 points in 398 games, his 1.03 points per game in that time ranks 20th in the NHL. All of this made the veteran winger a highly demanded free agent and Tampa Bay won the sweepstakes to secure Guentzel’s services. He is an effective play-driving winger whose team outscored the opposition by double digits with Guentzel on the ice at five-on-five in four of the past five seasons. He should have a chance to remain incredibly productive, particularly if he is going to play with Kucherov and Point, two established stars. Guentzel could reasonably be expected to contribute 35 goals and 80 points in his first season for the Lightning.

Brandon Hagel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	37	62	0.76

Coming off his fourth straight 20-goal season, Hagel has proven to be an excellent complementary winger for the Lightning, capable of moving around the lineup, from the top line with Point and Kucherov to further down the lineup, where he can elevate the level of speed and skill in the middle six. While Hagel was naturally more successful as a play driver when playing with Point and Kucherov, he had success with most of his linemates. Erik Cernak and Steven Stamkos were the only two players that played more than 200 minutes with Hagel that had Corsi or expected goals rates below 50 percent. Hagel uses his speed to create chances in transition and plays with a consistent drive that gets him to the front of the net often. From there, tips, rebounds and second-chance opportunities are there for the taking. A sixth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres in 2016, Hagel had to battle just to make it into the league and he still plays with that fire, only now as an established scoring winger. The arrival of Guentzel likely means that Hagel will spend more time playing in the middle six but should also find first-unit power play time, so he should still be able to score. Although he put up a career-high 74 points last season, something in the range of 25 goals and 60-65 points seems a more reasonable expectation for 2024-2025.

Anthony Cirelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	29	47	0.57

Twice finishing in the top five of Selke Trophy voting, Cirelli has an outstanding reputation as a checking centre, though his defensive metrics are not quite at the elite level like they were a few years ago. It looked even worse in 2023-2024 because the Lightning had a .890 save percentage with Cirelli on the ice during five-on-five play, leading to Tampa Bay being outscored 54-49. Nevertheless, Cirelli delivered a career-high 45 points last season. Some of that was thanks to Cirelli scoring on 15.5 percent of his shots, after he scored on 11.1 percent of his shots in the previous three seasons. Strangely enough, for a strong checking centre, Cirelli is mediocre on faceoffs and last season’s success rate (49.2) matched his career mark at the dot. Cirelli has had the benefit of playing with high-end wingers at times in Tampa Bay and should have quality on his flanks in 2024-2025. That helps to elevate his offensive ceiling, but he has just 26 power play points across the past five seasons, which means it is not a big part of his game. Looking ahead to 2024-2025, Cirelli ought to be able to score between 15 and 20 goals on the way to contributing 40 points for the Lightning.

Nick Paul

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	20	40	0.50

A power forward who has found a home at centre in Tampa Bay, Paul hit career highs with 24 goals and 46 points last season. He played a career-high 17:16 per game and won a tidy 54.3 percent of his faceoffs. At 6-foot-3, 223 pounds, Paul can handle physical play and has recorded more than 100 hits in four of the past five seasons. Paul’s offensive breakthrough last season was largely due to his role on the power play, where he scored nine goals with the man advantage, making the most of his net-front position. The challenge for the Lighting, in the cases of both Paul and Cirelli, is that they both hit career highs last season so it might be difficult for them to expect even better production in 2024-2025. While he does not have a long track record of offensive production, there are some facets of Paul’s game that should remain consistent. He goes hard to the net, using his size to carve out space, and he has a hard shot that can be quite effective if he has room attacking on his off wing. Paul has made more of an impact offensively since joining the Lightning, in a trade for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick, so he should still be a solid centre in Tampa Bay’s middle six, but a reasonable projection likely falls around 20 goals and 40 points.

Cam Atkinson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	22	21	43	0.58

After missing the entire 2022-2023 season, Atkinson returned to action for the Flyers last season, but it was not exactly a roaring success. He was below 50 percent in terms of shot attempts and expected goals percentage, with the Flyers getting outscored 45-29 with Atkinson on the ice during five-on-five play. Those were atypical results for him, but he is also a 35-year-old winger who had just missed an entire season. Coming back from that is not at all easy. Will it go any better for Atkinson in Tampa Bay? He is a seven-time 20-goal scorer who, at his best, is a strong skater capable of playing in all situations. To his credit, even if his offensive production slipped, Atkinson was still a reliable penalty killer last season. Atkinson has a finisher’s touch around the net and knows how to get himself in position to score. The question, at this stage of his career, is if Atkinson is still capable of being that player. Indications from last season would put that in doubt, so projections for Atkinson should be relatively modest, along the lines of 15-20 goals and 35 points. That might not sound like a lot, but Atkinson has only exceeded that point total once since 2018-2019.

Michael Eyssimont

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	14	26	0.32

A late bloomer who did not stick in the National Hockey League until he was 26, Eyssimont had a solid showing in a depth role for Tampa Bay last season. Eyssimont earned his way into the league by playing a hard game which includes hitting and dropping the gloves when a middleweight bout is required. Eyssimont recorded 135 hits to go with 104 penalty minutes and six fights in 2023-2024. His contributions are not limited to that, however. He had 11 goals and 25 points, despite a shooting percentage of 7.4 percent, which is on the low end for forwards. Eyssimont’s shot rate of 9.27 shots per 60 minutes was the same as Nikita Kucherov, so he is providing plenty of value on the lower half of the Lighting’s forward depth chart. At the same time, he has had modest success offensively. His top AHL season saw him produce 42 points in 58 games and he had 39 points in 39 games during his last season at St. Cloud State. With a limited track record in the NHL, it’s probably reasonable to expect similar production to last season, with about 10 goals and 25 points from Eyssimont in 2024-2025.

Conor Sheary

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	17	28	0.36

A diminutive winger who has carved out a solid career, Sheary has scored 15 goals in a season four times in his career. His production fell off a cliff in his first season with the Lightning, managing just four goals and 15 points in 57 games. He played 11:06 per game, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season in 2015-2016. Sheary also saw his shot rate, which was already modest at 1.88 per game in 2022-2023, drop to 0.88 per game in 2023-2024, and that is just not enough to hold down a regular role in the top nine. Although his offensive game was well off of his usual pace, Sheary’s possession numbers were just under 50 percent. While that’s hardly ideal, it’s not disastrous, either. Sheary’s most common linemates last season were Nick Paul and Michael Eyssimont, and he should have an opportunity to at least start the season in Tampa Bay’s top nine again, but if 32-year-old Sheary’s production stays the same, surely the Lighting would seek out better alternatives. While he has contributed 30 points or more five times in his career, 25-30 points would be a reasonable expectation for Sheary in 2024-2025.

DEFENCE

Victor Hedman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	13	57	70	0.89

Just when it looked like Hedman’s game might be slipping, after a relatively down season in 2022-2023, the towering 33-year-old blueliner bounced back with a stellar year, putting up 76 points in 78 games and seeing his possession numbers move back in the right direction. Hedman also resumed his spot on the Lightning’s first power play unit, and he had 31 power play points, up from 14 the season before. Hedman has finished in the top seven of Norris Trophy voting in eight of the past nine seasons, a perennial contender every year. Hedman skates so well for such a large man. He has a powerful stride that swallows up so much ice and it allows him to join the rush on offense and take away space in the defensive zone. Since 2018-2019, Hedman has 364 points in 421 games, ranking second among defencemen, behind only Roman Josi. His 154 power play points in that time is the highest among all defencemen, so with the Lightning moving out Mikhail Sergachev in a trade with Utah, Hedman should be more comfortable as the No. 1 option on Tampa Bay’s power play. That makes it likely that Hedman will put up elite numbers, something like 70 points would be a fair expectation.

Ryan McDonagh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	3	25	28	0.37

When the Lightning traded McDonagh to the Nashville Predators following the 2021-2022 season, he was clearly not happy. His first season with the Predators was somewhat of a struggle, but he was back in fine form last season, which is rather impressive for a guy who is now 35 years old. He remains a strong skater and plays with competitive fire even though he tends to play a very clean game. Not only was McDonagh’s defensive game more typical last season, but he finished with 32 points, his most since the 2018-2019 campaign. His most common partner was Roman Josi, which certainly helps, and the Predators outscored opponents 29-15 during five-on-five play with McDonagh and Josi on the ice. Last season marked 13 consecutive seasons in which McDonagh has logged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and given the strong results, he will surely play a significant role in Tampa Bay, albeit maybe not with one of the premier offensive defencemen as his partner. He would certainly be capable of playing with Hedman, if needed, but McDonagh will likely be counted on to anchor another pairing. McDonagh can be expected to deliver 25-30 points, along with at least 130 blocked shots now that he is back in Tampa Bay for the 2024-2025 season.

J.J. Moser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	24	30	0.37

Acquired from the Utah Hockey Club in the deal that sent Sergachev to Utah, Moser is a 24-year-old defenceman who has shown some promise through three NHL seasons. He is a smooth puckhandler who anticipates the play, can skate well and keeps the puck moving in the right direction. He is nimble on his feet and is competitive, but also not huge, so Moser can get overpowered in some situations. Nevertheless, he steadily continued to get better through his first three seasons and his situation in Tampa Bay is likely to offer much better support. With a stronger supporting cast, the Lightning should be able to deploy Moser in better situations that will increase his likelihood of having success. On the other hand, that stronger supporting cast could make it more difficult for Moser to even earn second unit power play time with his new team, considering that Darren Raddysh already has enjoyed some modest success with the Lightning last season. Moser has shown enough skill that he could get an opportunity to play on Tampa Bay’s second power play unit and that does offer some potential for his point production in 2024-2025. Based on his production to this point, 25-30 points would be the most reasonable expectation, but he has potential for more, too.

Darren Raddysh

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	22	28	0.34

A 28-year-old right-shot puck-moving defenceman coming off his first season in the National Hockey League, Raddysh took a long time to make it to the league but established that he can be a solid contributor when given the chance. After playing for Erie in the Ontario Hockey League for five seasons, Raddysh spent five more seasons in the American Hockey League, split between Rockford and Hartford, then he joined the Lighting and in his first two seasons with the organization, he played in 111 AHL games and 21 NHL games. It was fair, at that point, to believe that his window for an NHL career was closing. However, he did play six playoff games for the Lightning in 2022-2023 and showed well enough to earn a spot on the 2023-2024 roster, then he played in every game and ranked second among Lightning defencemen in points. Raddysh is not a punishing force on the blue line, but he is an intelligent player who makes a crisp first pass. He handles the puck like a veteran pro, even if much of his pro experience is outside the NHL. It appears that Raddysh has secured his position in Tampa Bay and can be expected to play a secondary role on the Tampa Bay blueline. He may have to compete with Moser for power play time on the second unit, so that could complicate his projections for the 2024-2025 season. That uncertainty makes it more reasonable to expect 25-30 points from Raddysh in the upcoming campaign.

GOAL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
62	33	21	8	4	0.913	2.68

Almost every team in the NHL has undergone at least one major goaltending change since the Tampa Bay Lightning won their first of two back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. The Lightning, though, appear poised to continue running it back until Andrei Vasilevskiy finally crumbles into a pile of dust; barring any major roster changes at the last minute, the Atlantic Division powerhouse will once again start their season with Vasilevskiy sitting as their one and only starting goaltender. The Lightning boast one of the most barren goaltending cupboards in the entire NHL, with only backup Jonas Johansson and minor leaguer Matt Tomkins signed to NHL deals behind the team’s Vezina and Conn Smythe winner.

This strategy has yet to fail them thus far, but it’s becoming harder and harder to feel confident that things will go well in net for Tampa Bay as Vasilevskiy suffers more and more wear and tear over the years. He remains one of the NHL’s most impressive instinctual minds, reading opponents at an elite level even on his worst days. But after playing nearly 500 regular season games in just 10 NHL seasons - only eight of which were spent fully at the NHL level - fatigue is clearly starting to settle in. It’s hard to consider Vasilevskiy a sure thing at this point, and Tampa Bay likely knows it - they just lack the cap flexibility to do much about it.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Logan Stankoven and Matt Rempe make their presence felt, Tyler Bertuzzi, Gustav Nyquist, and Scott Laughton pick up the pace and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 02 Mar 2024 15:00:26 +0000

_{SAINT PAUL, MN - OCTOBER 08: Dallas Stars Center Logan Stankoven (57) looks on during the NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild, on October 8th, 2022, at Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, rookies Logan Stankoven and Matt Rempe make their presence felt in different ways; Tyler Bertuzzi, Gustav Nyquist, and Scott Laughton pick up the pace and much, much more!

#1 The Dallas Stars have been patient this season, watching Logan Stankoven rip up the American Hockey League in his first pro season. The 2021 second-round pick had put up 57 points (24 G, 33 A) in 47 games for the Iowa Stars of the AHL before finally getting called up and he has not disappointed. In his first four games with the big club, Stankoven has scored three goals and added an assist, putting 12 shots on goal. He is on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn and it’s looking good. The real question is what the Stars are going to do when Tyler Seguin returns from injury because Stankoven has already shown that he belongs. Stankoven has been loaned to the Texas Stars again, but Dallas has to make room for a player of this quality.

#2 It has largely been a disappointing season for Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Tyler Bertuzzi but he is starting to turn the corner. With a goal in Thursday’s win over Arizona, he has six points (5 G, 1 A) during a four-game point streak. Skating on a line with Max Domi and William Nylander, Bertuzzi also has 15 shots on goal during that streak and the improved shot rate is an encouraging sign for his production being sustained over the rest of the season.

#3 The month of February has brought out the best in Nashville Predators right winger Gustav Nyquist. He picked up a couple of assists in Thursday’s 6-1 win against Minnesota, giving him 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in 10 February games, tops among Preds forwards. He has 51 points (16 G, 35 A) in 61 games and his 0.84 points per game is challenging his 2013-2014 season, when he also had 0.84 points per game but fractionally higher, for the best points per game of his career.

#4 Philadelphia Flyers centre Scott Laughton has started to pick up his offensive production. In the past eight games, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 17 shots on goal. He has added 18 hits in that time, enhancing his value for those in banger leagues. He is centering a line with Owen Tippett and Tyson Foerster. After missing a couple of weeks with a lower-body injury, Foerster has returned with a vengeance, scoring five points (4 G, 1 A) in three games.

#5 New York Rangers winger Matt Rempe has had quite the impact since arriving in the NHL. The 21-year-old is 6-foot-8 and while he has contributed a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in his first six NHL games, he has also racked up 32 penalty minutes. He is not going to be able to keep the pace of taking on all comers with fisticuffs, but he has added a level of excitement to the Blueshirts. Rempe is not playing enough to generate fantasy interest outside of banger leagues, but the penalty minutes will hold some appeal.

#6 Now, for a New York Rangers winger who has more reliable value, look to Alexis Lafreniere. In his past dozen games, Lafreniere has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal. He is up to 2.68 shots on goal per game this season, up by more than a shot per game over last season, and that is why the fourth-year winger is a more consistent scoring threat.

#7 While he was suspended for the first half of the season, the Ottawa Senators made sure that it was known that Shane Pinto was going to be a big part of their plans. He is rewarding them for that patient approach. In his past 11 games, Pinto has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 38 shots on goal. He is centering a line with Brady Tkachuk and Vladimir Tarasenko. Pinto’s ice time is up, his shot rate is up, and he is turning into a legitimate scoring threat.

#8 With Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel injured, Rickard Rakell has become a more important piece for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The veteran winger is skating with Reilly Smith and Sidney Crosby on the Penguins’ top line and has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 20 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has also played more than 19 minutes in four of those seven contests.

#9 While there has been discussion about the Nashville Predators potentially moving centre Tommy Novak before the trade deadline because he is a pending unrestricted free agent, it would be a tough move to sell for a team that has been elevated into a playoff position on the strength of a seven-game winning streak. In his past dozen games, Novak has produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal and he has been efficient, scoring like this while playing just 14 minutes per game.

#10 There is a changing of the guard in Washington, where 23-year-old centre Connor McMichael is starting to take on a bigger role. In his past 10 games, McMichael has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 21 shots on goal. He is skating between wingers Aliaksei Protas and Anthony Mantha on an effective line that has played more than 300 minutes together at five-on-five, controlling 57.5% of expected goals. Protas, the 6-foot-6 left winger, has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games while Mantha, the 6-foot-5 right winger, has eight points (2 G, 6 A) with just four shots on goal in his past seven contests.

#11 Sometimes, it’s just a matter of where a player finds himself in the lineup. Chicago Blackhawks winger Nick Foligno is 36 years old and has been a depth winger in recent seasons but with the rebuilding Blackhawks, he is getting a much bigger opportunity. In his past 10 games, Foligno has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal while a slumping Anthony Beauvillier (zero points in six games since returning from injury) is getting a chance to skate alongside Connor Bedard at even strength, Foligno does still have a spot on Chicago’s top power-play unit.

#12 Claimed off waivers by the Minnesota Wild from the Winnipeg Jets, defenceman Declan Chisholm is making the most of his opportunity with a new team. Chisholm is playing more than 18 minutes per game for the Wild, including time on Minnesota’s second power-play unit, and has recorded four points (1 G, 3 A) in his first seven games with Minnesota. It would be the deepest of leagues for Chisholm to have fantasy appeal already, but it is worth keeping him on your radar, to see if this fresh start can continue to yield results.

#13 The goaltending situation for the Toronto Maple Leafs has been uneven, to say the least, but it should be better with Joseph Woll returning from injury. Woll started against Arizona Thursday, his first start since December 7, and he stopped 30 of 32 shots in a 4-2 victory. Woll has a .918 save percentage in 16 games this season and while that is a small sample, it makes him the best option between the pipes for the Maple Leafs, so long as he stays healthy.

#14 After a 33-save shutout against Pittsburgh on Thursday, Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer is forcing his way back into the Kraken crease. As great as Joey Daccord has played, posting a .919 save percentage in 39 games, Grubauer does have a .947 save percentage in five starts since returning from injury. With a longer track record, and bigger contract, Grubauer will likely get every opportunity to play, so that does affect the relative value of both Seattle goaltenders.

#15 It would seem like Lucy teasing Charlie Brown with the football to bubble up excitement around Alexander Nylander, the eighth pick in the 2016 Draft who has 36 points in 101 career games, but it’s at least worth keeping an eye on his development in Columbus. Acquired from Pittsburgh in exchange for Emil Bemstrom, Nylander had a goal and an assist in Thursday’s loss to Carolina, and played a career-high 19:40. He also has nine shots on goal across the past two games, so in this super small sample, he is offering some reason to keep him in mind. We will see how long it lasts.

#16 There has not been a lot to love about the San Jose Sharks this season but they do have some veterans that could be producing enough to hold interest in deeper leagues. Mikael Granlund picked up three assists in Thursday’s loss to Anaheim, giving him six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Granlund also played a season-high 25:28 against the Ducks. Anthony Duclair, who may be auditioning for a new home at the trade deadline, has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past five games and is skating on Granlund’s wing, at least for now.

#17 Cam Atkinson has dropped out of the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, as a healthy scratch. He has zero points and 18 shots on goal in his past 11 games and that isn’t cutting it for head coach John Tortorella. It is even more challenging for Atkinson when he is getting scratched even with leading scorer Travis Konecny injured and out of the lineup because that effectively puts Atkinson an extra step away from just getting into the lineup, let alone in a position where he might once again have fantasy value.

#18 Even though he is still skating on Seattle’s second line, left winger Jaden Schwartz is mired in a brutal slump. In his past 11 games, Schwartz had one goal, zero assists, and 22 shots on goal. The 31-year-old winger has had plenty of peaks and valleys in his career when it comes to scoring – he had 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 15 games to start this season! – and it appears that he is deep in a valley right now.

#19 Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk had a cool moment with his father, Louie DeBrusk, before a recent game against the Edmonton Oilers. The elder DeBrusk brought out a ticket that his son had given to him many years ago, stating that he would record a goal or an assist, or do 30 pushups. That night, DeBrusk recorded both a goal and an assist, saving himself from the 30 pushup option. The unfortunate part for DeBrusk is that it is the only time in his past 14 games that he has managed to find the scoresheet. He is averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game over that span, which makes his slump all the more troubling. The one encouraging sign is that DeBrusk had 34 shots on goal in those 14 games, so he is getting chances, and that tends to lead to better results.

#20 Two goaltenders who have been pleasant surprises this season experienced a more challenging month of February. Connor Ingram had emerged as the starting goaltender in Arizona, posting a .919 save percentage in his first 30 games. Since January 25, though, Ingram has a 0-6-2 record with a .872 save percentage and he missed some time with an injury, too. In Washington, Charlie Lindgren had a .929 save percentage in mid-January, forcing his way into more playing time, but then his results flipped, too. In his past 11 starts, he has a 4-5-2 record with a .873 save percentage. Maybe this should have been expected from goaltenders with limited NHL track records, but this season has been difficult to find consistent and reliable goaltending from many angles, even from these two goalies who had been providing excess value for more than three months to start the season.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Veterans Sean Monahan and Adam Henrique are boosting their potential trade value, Logan Couture returns to action, Olen Zellweger gets called up to Anaheim, the goalie carousel continues to turn, and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 26 Jan 2024 20:46:13 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 15: Sean Monahan (91) of the Montreal Canadiens looks on during the second period of the NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the Montreal Canadiens on January 15 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, veterans Sean Monahan and Adam Henrique are boosting their potential trade value, Logan Couture returns to action, Olen Zellweger gets called up to Anaheim, the goalie carousel continues to turn, and much, much more!

#1 After leading Montreal to victory, with two goals and an assist against the New York Islanders on Thursday, Habs centre Sean Monahan has produced 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past six games. A pending free agent, Monahan should be an attractive trade candidate if the Canadiens don’t sign him to a new deal before the deadline. Considering that he will be turning 30 early next season, it might make more sense for Montreal to bring in draft picks or prospects in exchange for Monahan, who is only increasing his value with his recent production.

#2 San Jose Sharks centre Logan Couture missed more than half of the season due to injury and has been thrust right back into a primary role with the Sharks. A player who is getting 19 minutes of ice time per game, including first unit power play time, is naturally very appealing for fantasy managers, but maybe pump the brakes a bit on Couture. In his first three games of the season, Couture has managed one assist and two shots on goal, which is understandable, given his layoff, but also does not indicate that urgency is required if you want to claim Couture on the waiver wire.

#3 When the Anaheim Ducks traded defenceman Jamie Drysdale to the Philadelphia Flyers to acquire prospect Cutter Gauthier, part of the reasoning for the Ducks was that they had quality young defencemen in their system. Enter Olen Zellweger, the Ducks’ second round pick in 2021, who had 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in 34 AHL games this season when he was called up by Anaheim. Zellweger is not being rushed into a big role with the Ducks, playing under 14 minutes in each of his first two games, but he is getting first unit power play time and has one assist with the man advantage. Long-term Zellweger could have significant fantasy appeal. Right now, he is a longshot play for those in deeper leagues.

#4 Ducks centre Adam Henrique is another veteran pivot who is on an expiring contract, making him a prime trade candidate. Henrique is heating up, too, contributing 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 25 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That production is looking good already, but Henrique ought to spend the stretch run playing for a team with more talent than his current team in Anaheim, which should help Henrique maintain a quality level of production.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson went more than two months without a goal, managing six assists in a 26-game span, but he has emerged from that lengthy slump. Atkinson has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in seven games since emerging from that scoring dry spell and once again looks like a viable fantasy performer.

#6 With Carter Hart taking a leave from the Flyers, rookie goaltender Samuel Ersson is going to see a much bigger role in the Philadelphia net. Ersson was lit up in his first three appearances of the season and then went on an 18-game run in which he posted a .930 save percentage. In his past three starts, Ersson has dipped again, recording a .841 save percentage in three straight losses. If he can snap out of it, Ersson has a chance to make a fantasy impact, depending on how long Hart will be absent from the Flyers.

#7 In December, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a crisis of confidence following a four-game stretch in which he had a .798 save percentage, allowing 21 goals on 104 shots. He was demoted to the American Hockey League and there was a portion of the Maple Leafs fan base that would have been happy to wipe their hands clean of him. However, with Joseph Woll injured and Martin Jones starting to wear down in the starter’s role, Samsonov has returned to the Maple Leafs lineup and has a .944 save percentage in three starts since rejoining the club. He is coming off a 32-save shutout against Winnipeg on Wednesday, the kind of performance that should alleviate any concerns about confidence for at least a little while.

#8 The Los Angeles Kings made a savvy move in the offseason when they signed goaltender David Rittich to be the No. 3 goalie in the organization. Once Pheonix Copley had his season ended by ACL surgery, the move looked even better. Rittich has appeared in eight games for the Kings and has a 4-1-2 record with a .930 save percentage. It is unlikely that he will maintain that level of play, but as long as he plays this well, Rittich is going to command more starts in the Los Angeles net. Fantasy managers that might be in deep leagues or just desperate for goaltending help might want to give Rittich a longer look.

#9 Veteran Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie managed just one assist in his first 15 games this season. That is a troubling slump from a 37-year-old winger whose body might even feel a few years older than that because of Oshie’s rambunctious style of play throughout his career. However, Oshie has started to emerge from that funk. In his past 10 games, Oshie has put up nine points (7 G, 2 A) with 26 shots on goal. Four of those goals have come via the power play, where Oshie is still getting first unit time with the man advantage for Washington.

#10 St. Louis Blues centre Brayden Schenn endured a 16-game stretch from early December to early January in which he was held without a goal and managed a meagre two assists. In eight games since, Schenn has finally come alive, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal. He is getting first unit power play time for the Blues and that has helped him escape that terrible slump.

#11 Returning to the league after a hiatus to sort out some personal issues that led to being released by the Chicago Blackhawks, right winger Corey Perry has signed with the Edmonton Oilers. The 38-year-old winger is a useful depth option who has thrived in a limited role with contenders in previous seasons before seeing an uptick of ice time in Chicago at the start of the season. In Edmonton, Perry is probably going to be in a depth role most of the time, and he has not scored more than half-a-point per game for a season since 2017-2018. That suggests that the real value for Perry when it comes to fantasy, is as something of a sleeper for the playoffs, because Perry has contributed 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 78 games over the past four postseasons.

#12 Dallas Stars sophomore centre Wyatt Johnston had some trouble late in 2023, going through a 16-game stretch in which he failed to score a goal and added just five assists. The young forward has come out on the other side, however, putting up eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past eight games and he has moved up to join Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on Dallas’ top line when they are playing five-on-five hockey.

#13 It may be too late to have an impact on the playoff race, but the Ottawa Senators are playing a more competitive brand of hockey, posting a 3-0-2 record in the past five games. The Sens are finally getting stronger down the middle of the ice. Josh Norris is healthy after missing some time and Shane Pinto has been activated since serving his gambling suspension. Pinto has two points (1 G, 1 A) and seven shots on goal in his first three games and played 19:40 in his third game of the season, Thursday against Boston.

#14 Last week, we focused on Chandler Stephenson with a bigger role down the middle of the ice for the Vegas Golden Knights in the aftermath of injuries to Jack Eichel and William Karlsson. The other Vegas centre who has seen his profile get a major boost is Nicolas Roy, the 26-year-old who has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past five games. Roy’s value may only last while Vegas is missing its top two centres, but short-term value is still more fantasy appeal than Roy has typically.

#15 It seems like Philadelphia Flyers centre Morgan Frost is often teetering on the edge of landing in John Tortorella’s doghouse, but Frost appears to have found the antidote, for now. If he is productive, that can keep Torts at bay, and in his past 11 games, Frost has accrued 11 points (2 G, 9 A) with 25 shots on goal. After scoring a career high 46 points (19 G, 27 A) in 81 games last season, Frost is scoring at a higher per-game rate this season, with 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 38 games, good for 0.58 points per game.

#16 Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond has continued to churn out points. He had a pair of assists in Thursday’s 3-0 win against Philadelphia, giving him 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past 13 games. He could be even more effective if he would shoot the puck more, but there is not much to complain about when the third year forward is scoring points (0.81 per game) at the highest rate of his career.

#17 Known for his defensive play and an ability to blend into the background in his firset three seasons in the league, Vancouver’s Pius Suter notched a hat trick against St. Louis on Wednesday, giving him 12 goals in 34 games. He has four goals and eight shots on goal in the past two games and is getting a look on the Canucks’ top power play unit. Given that he has never scored more than 36 points in a season, it is fair to wonder how long Suter’s offensive surge could last, but he is now among the players to consider adding in deep leagues.

#18 Boston Bruins centre Trent Frederic has emerged as an offensive contributor over the past month. Since December 31, Frederic has tallied 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 26 shots on goal in 14 games. That shooting percentage is not going to last over the long haul, but Frederic is proving that he is more than just a banger who will drop the gloves if need be. As the 25-year-old is up to 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 48 games, he is raising the bar for what might be expected of him for the rest of this season and beyond.

#19 While consistency remains a battle for New Jersey Devils right winger Alexander Holtz, the skilled forward has started 2024 off right, producing eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in 11 games since the calendar turned to January. His ice time is a concern, as Holtz played just 10:14 at Carolina on Thursday, but continued production does tend to have a way of bringing more ice time into the equation.

#20 When the Los Angeles Kings acquired Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets last summer, it was expected that the 25-year-old pivot would join Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle of the ice to give the Kings strength at centre. With Dubois putting up just 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 60 shots on goal in his past 32 games, frustration is starting to set in among coaches and even Kings players. Dubois has been moved down the depth chart and is centering young wingers Alex Laferriere and Jaret Anderson-Dolan, who will presumably put in maximum effort, even if their results are not necessarily the strongest. Under these circumstances it would be entirely reasonable for fantasy managers to drop Dubois, at least in shallower leagues where it would be easy enough to find a better replacement on the waiver wire.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – January 8th to 14th, 2024 – Race for Hart Trophy a tight one at halfway point + Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 06 Jan 2024 16:28:17 +0000

Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

We’re approaching the halfway point of the season and if I had to pick who will win the Hart Trophy at this stage, I would have a hard time doing so. There are several major candidates in the running.

Nikita Kucherov was an afterthought in last year’s voting despite finishing with 113 points in 82 contests, but he’s making a strong pitch this season with 27 goals and 64 points through 39 games. Although Tampa Bay has several other stars, Kucherov has also been instrumental to the Lightning’s offense, leading the team’s scoring race by 24 points. However, Tampa Bay with its 18-16-5 record is also not a safe bet to make the playoffs and voters tend to penalize players on teams that fall short of the postseason, so that might end up holding Kucherov back.

Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) Photo by Andrew Bershaw /Icon_Sportswire)

Instead, Nathan MacKinnon, who has 22 goals and 64 points in 39 appearances, is likely the favorite. MacKinnon is also the hotter of the two with 14 goals and 33 points over his last 15 contests. The 28-year-old has been a Hart Trophy finalist three times before (2018, 2020, 2021) and finished fifth in voting last campaign. After so many close calls, this might finally be his year.

However, the reigning Hart Trophy winner, Connor McDavid, might still challenge him. McDavid’s totals of 14 goals and 53 points in 33 games are a step behind Kucherov and MacKinnon, but the Oilers superstar was held back by a slow, injury-riddled start to the campaign. From Nov. 13 onward, McDavid has 12 goals and 43 points in 22 appearances, so he might still be able to close the gap. Voters might also give him extra credit for the Oilers’ revival following their 2-9-1 start to the campaign, provided Edmonton can keep climbing and make the playoffs.

Auston Matthews might also stay in the conversation. He just has 45 points through 35 games, but he has scored a league-leading 30 goals. His 60 goals in 2021-22 was enough to earn him the Hart Trophy that year and Matthews is a contender to reach that milestone again this year.

One final longer-shot contender is Quinn Hughes. The defenseman has 10 goals and 46 points through 38 contests. He ranks 10th in the scoring race, which is pretty good for a blueliner, but he’d probably need to do even better if he wants to claim the Hart Trophy. Blueliners rarely win the award -- the last was Chris Pronger in 2000.

Dallas Stars – MON @ MIN, WED VS MIN, FRI VS NSH, SAT @ CHI (BTB)

Dallas has a home-and-home series in Minnesota on Monday and versus the Wild on Wednesday. Minnesota had a strong run from Nov. 28-Dec. 27 with an 11-3-0 record, but the Wild have run into injury issues, which has led to them faltering, so Dallas has a chance here to take both contests. Afterward, Dallas will host the Predators on Friday before traveling to face the lowly Blackhawks on Saturday.

Jake Oettinger hasn’t played since Dec. 15 because of a lower-body injury, which has led to the Stars leaning heavily on Scott Wedgewood with mixed results. Wedgewood is 6-2-2 with a 3.01 GAA and an .891 save percentage in 10 contests since Oettinger got hurt. Oettinger is day-to-day, so he might return by the start of the week. If that’s the case, then he’ll likely get into three of Dallas’ four matches with Wedgewood picking up either Friday’s game versus Nashville or Saturday against Chicago.

The status of Miro Heiskanen is murkier. He suffered a lower-body injury Thursday after running into Wedgewood and there was no update on his status at the time of writing. The 24-year-old defenseman averages 25:03 of ice time, including 3:10 with the man advantage, so to say he’s an important part of the Stars’ blue line would be an understatement.

If Heiskanen misses time, then Nils Lundkvist will likely play regularly after being a healthy scratch in five of Dallas’ last eight contests. Lundkvist would likely only be on the third pairing, but he should also see time on the second power-play unit, so he might make some offensive contributions. The 23-year-old defenseman has 10 assists in 27 appearances in 2023-24.

Thomas Harley would likely also see a boost in ice time and might even fill in for Heiskanen on the top power-play unit. Harley has been solid offensively this year with nine goals and 17 points in 34 contests this season.

Regardless of what happens with Heiskanen’s injury, Dallas should continue to stay competitive thanks to its strong forward corps. Lately, Mason Marchment has highlighted that group with three goals and eight points over his last three contests, bringing him up to 13 goals and 29 points in 37 outings.

Minnesota Wild – MON VS DAL, WED @ DAL, FRI VS PHI, SAT VS ARI (BTB)

As noted above, Minnesota will start the week with a game in Dallas on Monday and then versus the Stars on Wednesday. That will likely be a tough series for the Wild, but afterward, they have two home games against more middling adversaries in the Flyers on Friday and the Coyotes on Saturday. It’s still not an easy set for the Wild, but with it being four contests in one week, it’s good enough to highlight.

Dallas’ injury issues are minor in comparison to Minnesota’s. The Wild are missing starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson, a pair of top-four defensemen in Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon and top-six forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. To make matters worse, it wouldn’t be surprising if none of them returned next week.

Marc-Andre Fleury will probably be relied upon in goal, but if Gustavsson doesn’t return in time for the back-to-back set on Friday and Saturday, then Zane McIntyre will likely get into one of those contests. McIntyre has a 3.54 GAA and an .884 save percentage in 12 games with AHL Iowa this season, though, so it’s probably better to avoid him, even if you need extra starts.

A better short-term pickup from Minnesota would be Nicolas Petan, who has two assists in three games since being recalled from Iowa on Sunday. With the Wild missing key players, Petan is serving in a middle-six capacity and seeing some power-play ice time. Although the 28-year-old isn’t likely to remain with Minnesota after the team starts getting its forwards back, Petan is a decent offensive force when given the opportunity, and he’s excelled in the minors with 10 goals and 28 points in 26 contests this campaign.

Montreal Canadiens – WED @ PHI, THU VS SJS (BTB), SAT VS EDM

Montreal will play just three games next week, but they’ll start against the slumping Flyers in Philadelphia on Wednesday and then host the lowly Sharks on Thursday. The Canadiens will conclude the week by hosting the Oilers.

The Canadiens have dropped four of their last five games, but not everyone on the team is struggling. Nick Suzuki has continued to excel, providing two goals and four points over his last four appearances, elevating him to 12 goals and 34 points in 38 contests this season. The 24-year-old hasn’t developed into a superstar, but he’s a solid top-line forward who is likely to surpass the 60-point mark for the third straight season.

By contrast, Juraj Slafkovsky still has lots of growing to do. The 19-year-old has four goals and 14 points in 38 contests this season. On the one hand, that’s at least a mild improvement over his 10 points in 39 games in 2022-23, but that’s a smaller jump than you’d hope for from the 2022 No. 1 overall pick, especially given that he’s averaging 16:24 of ice time this season, up from 12:13 in 2022-23, so he doesn’t even have the excuse of limited opportunities.

However, Slafkovsky has shown life recently, providing two goals and six points over his last seven contests, so perhaps he’s setting the stage for a stronger second half. He’s worth gambling on next week if he’s available in your league, especially given the quality of Montreal’s upcoming competition.

New York Rangers – MON VS VAN, THU @STL, SAT @ WAS, SUN VS WAS (BTB)

The Rangers have a full four-game set next week. They’ll get what should be their toughest matchup out of the way first when they host the Canucks on Monday. Afterward, the Rangers have a two-game road trip with contests in St. Louis on Thursday and Washington on Saturday, and they’ll finish the week with a home game versus the Capitals.

New York has continued to be led by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, who have 11 and 12 points, respectively, over the Rangers’ last eight games. Panarin is having an especially remarkable season with 24 goals and 53 points in 37 outings. For all the 32-year-old’s accomplishments, he’s never reached the century mark in a single season, but that’s set to change this year if he stays healthy.

Alexis Lafreniere is a less consistent contributor but has done well lately, providing two goals and seven points over his last eight contests. That’s pushed him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 37 appearances in 2023-24 as he also chases career highs -- albeit less impressive ones than Panarin. Lafreniere’s 39 points in 81 contests from 2022-23 presently stand as his personal best.

Fantasy managers should also keep an eye on Kaapo Kakko (lower body), who started practicing in a non-contact capacity Thursday. He might not return next week, but he’s making progress. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs once healthy. Kakko had a respectable 18 goals and 40 points in 82 contests last year. However, he was off to a rough start in 2023-24 with two goals and three points in 20 outings. While getting hurt is never a good thing, the silver lining is it will allow him to start fresh once he’s healthy.

Philadelphia Flyers – MON VS PIT, WED VS MTL, FRI @ MIN, SAT @ WPG (BTB)

Philadelphia will host the rival Penguins on Monday and remain at home for the Penguins on Wednesday. The Flyers will then travel to Minnesota on Friday and Winnipeg on Saturday. Of that set, the Jets are the only adversary occupying a playoff position.

Cam Atkinson and Morgan Frost were both healthy scratches Thursday. Atkinson is a particularly interesting case. He started the campaign with eight goals and 12 points in 15 appearances, but he has just six points (all assists) over his last 22 outings. Maybe having a game to reset is what he needs. Atkinson is likely to draw back into the lineup soon and will probably serve in a top-six capacity while also being on the first power-play unit.

One player who doesn’t need time off is Travis Konecny. The 26-year-old forward is on a six-game scoring streak in which he’s contributed four goals and nine points. Konecny is up to 20 goals and 35 points in 38 outings this year and that’s despite getting just three points with the man advantage. He has a spot on the top power-play unit, so his offense on special teams might increase in the second half of the year.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS SJS, THU @ NYI, SAT VS COL, SUN VS DET

The Maple Leafs will have three home games next week against the Sharks on Tuesday, the Avalanche on Saturday and the Red Wings on Sunday. They also have a one-game road trip against the Islanders on Thursday.

With Joseph Woll (ankle) still hurt and Ilya Samsonov struggling to the point where he’s been sent to AHL Toronto, 22-year-old rookie Dennis Hildeby is with the team. Rather than allow him to make his NHL debut Wednesday versus Anaheim, the Maple Leafs opted to use Martin Jones in both halves of their back-to-back. That paid off, though, with Jones saving 58 of 59 shots over those two outings.

Jones has been stunning with Toronto, posting a 6-3-0 record, 2.21 GAA and .930 save percentage in 10 contests. I’m hesitant to get too excited about him, though. Jones has had an interesting career, but it’s involved a lot of rough patches -- there's a reason he went unclaimed on waivers back in October, allowing him to start the season in the minors -- and what we’re seeing now might be more of a hot streak than a resurgence. Regardless, Jones is expected to continue to be leaned on heavily during Woll’s absence.

I would still expect Hildeby to make at least one start next week, likely against Colorado on Saturday or Detroit on Sunday. It seems like a waste to summon the prospect if all he’s going to do is practice with the team and warm the bench. If that was the extent of the assignment, the Maple Leafs could have brought up Keith Petruzzelli from the Marlies instead, allowing Hildeby to continue to get work uninterrupted.

That aside, this might be another good week for Max Domi, who has four assists over his last four games. He’s been a steady presence lately, supplying three goals and 11 points over his last 15 contests to provide the Maple Leafs with some scoring depth.

Vancouver Canucks – MON @ NYR, TUE @ NYI (BTB), THU @ PIT, SAT @ BUF

Vancouver arguably has the most borderline schedule to be highlighted on this list. On the one hand, the Canucks will play four games, which is always desirable for getting the most out of players in fantasy formats, but the downside is they’ll be traveling for the full duration with games against the Rangers on Monday, the Islanders on Tuesday, the Penguins on Thursday and the Sabres on Saturday.

If Pius Suter is still available in your league, he’s worthy of selection. The 27-year-old has just 11 points in 24 contests this season, but over his last seven appearances, he’s supplied four goals and seven points. He has a position on Vancouver’s second line and second power-play unit, so while he’s not going to continue to produce at a point per game in the long run, he might be good for 25-30 points over Vancouver’s final 45 contests if he maintains his current role.

Teddy Blueger is another red-hot member of the Canucks, providing three goals and 10 points over his last nine outings. I don’t expect the 29-year-old’s offensive run to last much longer, though. He’s never recorded more than 28 points in a single season and doesn’t have a stable role on the power play, so if you’ve been enjoying Blueger’s recent success, just be prepared to move on without much hesitation when he shows signs of faltering.

Similarly, I’m not confident the good times will last much longer for Dakota Joshua, who has five goals and nine points over his last nine contests. The silver lining with Joshua is he’s a great source of hits with 113 in 37 appearances this season, and he should continue to help in that regard even after his offense fizzles out.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS CHI, SAT VS PHI

In contrast to Vancouver, the Jets will play in just three games, but they’re all home games and feature weak to middling adversaries. Winnipeg will host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Flyers on Saturday.

The quality of Winnipeg’s opponents might allow Morgan Barron to continue his hot stretch after providing three goals and five points over his last five contests. Just keep in mind that Barron is serving primarily as a fourth liner, so he’s worth considering only as a short-term pickup.

Vladislav Namestnikov has a substantially bigger role with the Jets, averaging 15:10 of ice time, including 1:24 with the man advantage. He’s up to four goals and 20 points in 34 contests this season and has been especially effective recently, supplying a goal and five points over his last four outings.

Of course, the Jets’ MVP is still goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. He’s won his last three starts while saving 93 of 98 shots (.949 save percentage), giving him a 19-6-3 record, 2.28 GAA and .921 save percentage in 28 outings this year. Hellebuyck might start in all three games this week, and he should continue to excel.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas – Vatrano raising his game in Anaheim – Byfield picking up the pace in LA, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Nov 2023 13:42:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Los Angeles Kings Quinton Byfield (55) l(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make better fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Willam Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas, Frank Vatrano is raising his game in Anaheim, Quinton Byfield is picking up the pace in Los Angeles, and much more!

#1 William Karlsson was a standout on Vegas’ run to the Stanley Cup last season, scoring 11 goals in 22 playoff games, and he has continued to play at a high level early in the 2023-2024 season, putting up 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 10 games. Karlsson does so much of his damage at even strength, with 10 of his 13 points this season coming at evens, and his most common linemates have been rookie winger Pavel Dorofeyev and Michael Amadio, so Karlsson is the one driving those results.

#2 Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano delivered 22 goals and a career-high 41 points last season, his first in Southern California, but has stepped into a bigger role this season. Vatrano’s ice time is up nearly two minutes per game compared to last season and he has scored nine goals while launching 35 shots on goal in 10 games. Vatrano has always been a quality shot generator, but often in a limited role. Now that he is playing more than 18 minutes per game, his per-game shot rate is soaring.

#3 Progress has been gradual for Quinton Byfield, the Kings winger who was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft who had a modest career high of 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 53 games last season. Byfield has suddenly picked up six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and with a continued role on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, Byfield is getting the opportunity to develop his offensive game.

#4 Coming into the season, there were relatively high expectations for Pavel Zacha, the Boston Bruins centre who appeared to be due for a bigger role with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. He had just one assist in five games but has rebounded from that slow start, contributing six points (4 G, 2 A) with 14 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. David Pastrnak has been Zacha’s most common linemate, and that is obviously a good sign, but Zacha has also shifted to left wing, with rookie Matthew Poitras getting a look on Boston’s top line.

#5 Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 Draft, is starting to find his range offensively, riding a four-game point streak, during which he has produced four points (1 G, 3 A) and seven shots on goal. Power’s upside for fantasy managers runs into a ceiling because Rasmus Dahlin is the quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, but Power has the offensive skills to be productive even as the No. 2 option on the Buffalo blueline.

#6 Veteran New York Islanders winger Kyle Palmieri has been a serviceable secondary scorer since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, but has taken on a bigger role this season, tallying eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first nine games. He is skating with Pierre Engvall and Brock Nelson on the Islanders’ second line, but Palmieri does get first unit power play time, so there is an opportunity for him to hit 40 points for the first time since 2019-2020.

#7 Following a standout rookie season in which he tallied 24 goals, Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston has continued his upward trajectory. In his past six games, Johnston has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with a dozen shots on goal as Johnston maintains his familiar spot between Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov.

#8 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand got off to such a slow start last season, managing 14 points (3 G, 11 A) in his first 31 games and while his production got better, he was really chasing after such a poor start. The good news for Bjorkstrand and the Kraken is that it does not appear to be happening this season. With his goal Thursday night against Nashville, Bjorkstrand has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. After recording 10 power play points last season, Bjorkstrand already has four power play points this season.

#9 After missing all of last season while he recovered from neck and triceps injuries, Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson has already shown that he has not forgotten how to finish. In his past seven games, Atkinson has tallied eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 21 shots on goal. Getting that kind of production from a 34-year-old who just missed an entire season certainly helps lift the Flyers to a more competitive place and he has moved to play alongside Sean Couturier, the veteran centre who also missed all of last season. While the playoffs might still be a longshot, having Atkinson and Couturier healthy does change that calculation somewhat.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz has had an interesting career, with quality production mixed in with some injury-plagued seasons. He is off to a fine start this year, and has put up seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Schwartz is skating on a line with Alexander Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, but has been a power play threat, with four of his nine points this season coming with the man advantage.

#11 New York Rangers star defenseman Adam Fox suffered an apparent leg injury Thursday after a leg-on-leg hit from Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho. A Fox injury would leave a large hole on the Rangers blueline. He has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 10 games this season and has finished in the top five in Norris Trophy voting in each of the past three seasons, winning in 2020-2021. If Fox is going to be out of the lineup, Erik Gustafsson would be a logical replacement as the power play quarterback but K’Andre Miller might also be an option for more power play time, too.

#12 For managers in deep or banger leagues, Arizona Coyotes centre Jack McBain is producing enough to generate interest. In his second season, McBain has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past five games, but that is also not likely to be sustainable since he is a fourth liner playing about 12 minutes per game. Nevertheless, McBain’s fantasy appeal is tied to his physical play as he had 304 hits last season and has 28 hits through 10 games this season. If he gets his offensive production to even passable levels, there is a path to fantasy value.

#13 It appears that the Winnipeg Jets have found something in their physical third line of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton. Appleton has five points (2 G, 3 A) in the past five games and the trio has controlled 62.7% of five-on-five shot attempts and 60.3% of expected goals this season. There may be an offensive ceiling for these players but dominating five-on-five play to this degree at least indicates that they will be getting scoring chances.

#14 There are a couple of rookie defencemen forcing their way into the fantasy conversation. New Jersey’s Luke Hughes has six assists and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and four of those assists have come on the power play as Hughes is getting a look on the Devils’ top power play unit, with Dougie Hamilton sliding to the second unit. Across the country, in Anaheim, Ducks defenceman Pavel Mintyukov has five assists in the past five games and while he is getting a chance on the Ducks’ No. 1 power play unit, Mintyukov has just one power play point this season.

#15 The Philadelphia Flyers lost goaltender Carter Hart to a “mid-body” injury this week and it seems that they will be without him for a while. Samuel Ersson is next in line and the Flyers have recalled Cal Petersen from the American Hockey League, but none of this precludes Felix Sandstrom from potentially seeing action in the Flyers net as well. Ersson has had an incredibly poor start to the season, allowing 14 goals on 59 shots (a .763 save percentage!), while Petersen has a .884 save percentage in four AHL games this season. Although the goaltending could be a major question mark, the Flyers deserve credit for playing a stronger team game this season as they have earned 54.8% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play, which puts them in the top ten in that category.

#16 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig was hurt early in Thursday’s defeat against the Los Angeles Kings and that is going to test the Senators for the time that Greig is out. With Shane Pinto suspended, Greig was an important part of the lineup, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in eight games prior to Thursday as Ottawa’s third line centre. As a short-term fix, Rourke Chartier could move up the depth chart, but the journeyman pivot has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 28 career games, so he may not be a viable answer if Greig is going to miss significant time.

#17 Alexander Barabanov is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and that creates an opening on San Jose’s top line alongside Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair. San Jose is hardly the source for great fantasy production, as the Sharks are getting buried on a nightly basis, but in deep leagues keep tabs on Fabian Zetterlund, who is getting that chance and is averaging nearly 16 minutes per game over the past five.

#18 While it was understood that veteran right winger Blake Wheeler had seen his better days, the 37-year-old still had 55 points (16 G, 39 A) in 72 games for the Winnipeg Jets last season. He has started a new phase with the New York Rangers in the worst way, going without a point in his first 10 games, and he is playing just 12 minutes per game, his lowest time on ice average of his career. Without a role on the Blueshirts’ power play, Wheeler is going to be hard-pressed to get his production back to fantasy relevant levels unless there is a dramatic shift in the situation.

#19 After a strong finish to last season, when he was between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on Arizona’s top line, Barrett Hayton was in a good spot to continue his career ascent. He is still centering that top line, and getting power play time, but has yet to record a point through 10 games this season. Hayton has 25 shots on goal and is playing a career-high 19:31 per game, so he might be a decent buy-low candidate, but his value has taken an unexpected hit due to his lack of production.

#20 Ongoing health issues have forced Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom to step away from the game and while his announcement did not have a final decision, it appears that the 35-year-old could be headed for retirement. An elite player from 2007-2008 through 2020-2021, Backstrom has been hampered by hip issues and it has been a tough road coming back. Since returning last season, Backstrom has 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 47 games and the Capitals have been outscored 31-16 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. He just isn’t the same player who was nearly a point-per-game scorer in his first 1,000 games in the league and, at his peak, was in the Selke Trophy discussion. With Backstrom out, that does provide more opportunity for Dylan Strome, whose ice time has been climbing and has six goals in his past six games.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:36:32 +0000

REVIEW: Philadelphia was a disaster in 2021-22, posting a 25-46-11 record, and not much was expected of them in 2022-23 either. Despite that, the Flyers got off to a strong start, going 5-2-0 through Oct. 27 and 7-3-2 through Nov. 8. Carter Hart was a big part of that initial success, posting a 6-0-2 record, 1.97 GAA and .946 save percentage through his first eight starts. The good times didn’t last though. Philadelphia ranked 23rd in expected goals against (182.51) in 2022-23, and Hart could only elevate the Flyers for so long. By the end of the season, the goaltender had a 2.94 GAA and .907 save percentage in 55 contests. The Flyers also didn’t have much going for it offensively, in no small part because Sean Couturier (back) and Cam Atkinson (neck) missed the entire campaign. Not that the Flyers would have been an elite offensive force even with them, but those key injuries contributed to Philadelphia ranking 29th in goals per game (2.68). The Flyers did have additional stretches where they were more than the sum of their parts, such as a 9-3-0 run from Dec. 29-Jan. 21 and a 5-0-1 stretch from March 17-30, but it was a mostly miserable season resulting in a 31-38-13 record.

What’s Changed? James van Riemsdyk left as a free agent and Tony DeAngelo was bought out but given van Riemsdyk’s former $7 million annual cap hit compared to his 29 points last year and DeAngelo’s horrendous defense, those moves feel like addition through subtraction. What’s more painful in the short-term is the loss of Ivan Provorov, who was traded to Columbus as part of a three-team deal that primarily brought picks and prospects to Philadelphia.

What would success look like? This isn’t a team built to compete yet. In an ideal scenario where Couturier and Atkinson return next season while young forwards Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee and Noah Cates make strides in their development then the Flyers’ offense will be…less bad.

What could go wrong? Yeah, even under optimal circumstances, there’s not a lot of hope for this team in 2023-24, and unfortunately things could end up far from the ideal. Most notably, Couturier hasn’t played since Dec. 18, 2021, so who knows if he’ll be available this year or what he’ll be like if he does play. Meanwhile, Hart is coming off an up-and-down campaign, and he’s had a hit-or-miss career. The Flyers have a poor track record with goaltenders, and as much as they want Hart to be the long-term solution in Philadelphia, they might have to go back to the drawing board.

Top Breakout Candidate: The fans in Philadelphia need someone to latch onto and give them hope for the future. Perhaps Tyson Foerster will fill that role. Taken with the 23rd overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, he’s coming off a superb campaign in which he had 48 points in 66 AHL contests along with three goals and seven points in eight games with the Flyers. Foerster will enter training camp in the mix for a middle-six spot, and it’s worth keeping an eye out how he does in that battle.

Forwards

Sean Couturier

Signing an eight-year contract extension before the start of the 2021 season, Sean Couturier hasn’t played a game for the Flyers since December of that year. He started the year on injured reserve after recovering from back surgery and a herniated disc pushed his timeline back even further. He began skating in October, but another setback led to his second back surgery that ultimately ended his season. Perhaps no news is good news as far as his availability goes for this upcoming season. It’s become less about what the Flyers will get out of Couturier when he comes back, but hoping they can get him back playing regularly again. It’s hard to believe he’s only 30-years-old because he was on the same 2011 team that Mike Richards and Chris Pronger were a part of. Playing an important defensive role on the Flyers since his rookie season, the wear-and-tear of the NHL has done a number on Couturier’s body and the hope is that a season of recovery will help him more in the second half of his career. The Couturier they get post-multiple surgeries might not be the same workhorse they’ve relied on for years, but this is something the Flyers should address in their rebuild.

Travis Konecny

John Tortorella is known for going to the extreme with how much he plays his top guys and Travis Konecny ended up being in that group. Playing more minutes per game than he ever had before, Konecny had every opportunity to show that he can be one of the best wingers in the league and while that’s a high bar to clear, he still had his best NHL season to date. Often the Flyers’ best option for offense, Konecny showed that his two previous seasons were a fluke and that he can produce if given the opportunity. He eclipsed his previous season’s goal total before New Year’s and finished at a rate closer to his career average. Enjoying time on both special teams’ units, he was a menace in front of the net and as a shorthanded threat on the Flyers new aggressive penalty kill. His speed is always going to make him a factor and even more on a Flyers team that spent a lot of time in their own zone. It opened the door for him to create more offense off counterattacks and it caught some teams off-guard, as he did have the green light to poach for more offense if he wanted to. Aside from missing 20 games with an injury, this is the season Philadelphia was hoping to get out of Konecny.

Owen Tippett

While Konecny was the Flyer’s best player, Tippett was their most exciting. Noticeable whenever he was on the ice, he finally got a consistent role in the top-six and had that breakout season. It was long awaited, as he could never really find a role with Florida and his ceiling looked like a guy who could provide some pop-gun offense off the rush once every few games. He’s still a shoot-first player, but he also had excellent chemistry with Philly’s more skilled players. Showing some major progress as far as his off puck play and looking for an extra play instead of just aimlessly firing blanks at the net. Benefitted from some of the same situations as Konecny where he scored off counterattacks after surviving defensive zone shifts, which is why the two were placed on different lines after connecting on some goals early. Tippett was one of the better players in the league in terms of turning zone entries into scoring chances. Still not a great finisher on his own despite scoring 27 goals, but makes up for it in volume, leading the Flyers in shots per 60 minutes. One of the few players on the team who shattered his expectations this year.

Morgan Frost

The Flyers had a few young players who were in the “prove it” bucket and Morgan Frost had maybe the highest ceiling of the bunch. A dynamic player in junior and an excellent playmaker, injuries and lack of ice time for him to make his mark so far. His game is more about precision than speed and it can be tough to work that in sometimes, especially on a rebuilding team. He is good at entering the zone through traffic but prefers setting up a cycle or dropping the puck off rather than attacking the net directly. The Flyers struggled to find any spot for him early in the year, playing him lower in the lineup and Frost obviously struggled to produce. Once December rolled around, Frost got more minutes and it became easier to play his game, forming some great chemistry with Owen Tippett. He finished the season on a strong note, but the Flyers are still left wondering what they have in him. He is a good, skilled player but there is always the question of “can we do better?” which is always a gamble with prospects. Right now, Frost proved that he is an NHLer, but more of a complementary piece.

Scott Laughton

Considered the heart and soul of the Flyers, Laughton had a career season in some ways, eclipsing the 40-point mark for the first time and playing the top line center role on some nights. A solid role player for most of his career, he had the trust of the Flyers coaching staff more than almost anybody. Not only was he the only player on the team to wear a letter, he was also used in all situations. He reaped the benefits, getting the opportunity to play with some better players and collecting more points in the process, most notably on special teams. He plays with a high motor, and it made him a great fit on the Flyers aggressive penalty kill, where he tallied seven shorthanded points. Lost minutes as the season went on as the Flyers were auditioning younger players and this season should follow a similar timeline. Depending on Couturier’s health, Laughton is more suited for a third line role, but he is still one of their more reliable options, especially at center, and could continue to play a big role on this rebuilding Flyers squad.

Cam Atkinson

Another player who was expected to miss time and ended up sidelined for the entire season, Atkinson will be an important piece for raising the tide in the Flyers lineup. A consistent scorer almost every year, he plays with a lot of energy and can fill a lot of different roles in the lineup. He’s a shoot-first player that can work with a finesse player like Morgan Frost and can play the tougher minutes with Cates or Couturier if he needs to. The Flyers also have a void of experience in their lineup with veteran James van Riemsdyk departing in free agency. Atkinson taking over his minutes should soften the blow. He was projected to play opening night until a nagging neck issue that eventually led to surgery in December ended his season. You never have to worry about effort with him, it’s just a matter of how effective he can be after not playing a game for a full year.

Joel Farabee

It’s a little surprising that Farabee didn’t miss a single game last season considering he was less than six months removed from disc replacement surgery. The aftereffects of it were noticeable on the ice rather than in his results. He ended the year with a career high in points, but it was also the first time in his career he played a full 82 games. Farabee was also one of Philly’s players they expected to take a step forward, but his play plateaued more than anything. He got consistent minutes in the top-six, although rarely with the same linemates and had bursts of production mixed with prolonged dry spells. The issue is that there’s not really one area of the game he is great at. He’s tenacious on the puck and creates most of his goals through steals and turnovers where he just needs to make a move or two to score. Outside of that, he had a lot of quiet shifts. He only shoots the puck at an average rate and is just an okay playmaker, so scoring is his one upside at the moment. This is where a full off-season where he’s not recovering from surgery might do him good. As one of the Flyers signed long-term, they are hoping he has another level to his game.

Noah Cates

Some fans might have said “who” when they saw Noah Cates on Selke ballots. The rookie surprised even some Flyers fans with how quick he ascended in the lineup, going from a fringe player to centering Travis Konecny’s line by the middle of the year. Known more for his defensive game in college, this is what kept him in the coach’s good graces through the first half of the season. He wasn’t scoring a lot of points or generating much offense, but he wasn’t making a lot of mistakes either. This was also while playing some tough minutes at a new position, as he was primarily a winger in college. He turned a corner in the second half of the year, scoring 24 of his 38 points after January, book-ended by a strong month of March where he had eight points in 13 games. Playing in the top-six will help that, but the promotion was well-earned. The Flyers were in dire straits for a defensive center in the absence of Sean Couturier and Cates gave them some hope that he might be one in the future. He had elite defensive results in terms of preventing scoring chances and shots. It might be tough for him to repeat that next season, but Cates should have the inside track for the 2C job in Philly next year.

Wade Allison

It’s hard to believe that Allison was drafted all the way back in 2016 because last year was technically his first full pro season. Injuries were an issue in college, and he played only 53 games over two seasons both in the AHL and NHL before making the Flyers out of camp this year. He still looked very raw to put it lightly. He was easy to notice during their games because he’s a big winger that plays a straight-line game, usually crashing the net, blocking a shot or laying a hit into somebody. There was a lot to like about him, but not much in the way of results. Allison struggled to produce consistently, and it was tough for him to make his mark otherwise, as he’s not a great passer or someone that can keep a cycle going. He’s mostly there to make the final shot or go to the net. It made his game one-dimensional but the saving grace for him is that he was creating chances, averaging more relative to his ice-time than any other Flyers forward. The downside is that he’s an older prospect and the Flyers will be looking to upgrade if this is as good as it gets with him. His size and tenacious approach to the game makes him an intriguing player to watch going forward, though.

Defense

Rasmus Ristolainen

Along with John Tortorella, his longtime defensive coach Brad Shaw arrived in Philadelphia this year and one of his tasks was rebuilding the game of Rasmus Ristolainen. An analytics punching bag for his entire career, Ristolainen typically had some of the worst on-ice stats in the league in terms of giving up goals and scoring chances against. Fixing this was one of their top priorities, as he is going to be a Flyer for a long time and has the physical tools to be a good defenseman, or at least not one of the worst in the league statistically. The solution was simplifying Ristolainen’s game, having him be less physical and using his reach more than his body to disrupt plays instead of hunting for hits. He still has limitations, especially with the puck, but it is less of a fire drill in the defensive zone when he is on the ice now compared to years past. He was also properly slotted in the lineup for the first time in his career, only playing 19-20 minutes a game instead of regularly leading the team in ice-time. In terms of building for the future, getting Ristolainen’s game pointed in the right direction is a good first step.

Travis Sanheim

A strange trend over the past couple of years has been Travis Sanheim not being on the ice for many even strength goals against despite the Flyers struggles. In the past two seasons, he has been either first or second in on-ice goals against per 60 despite posting some ugly possession numbers during those years. With Provorov traded to Columbus, he is the lone remaining member of the Flyers old defense corps and is in the first year of a long contract extension. The Flyers’ more talented defensemen have always been on the left side, so Sanheim’s had the burden of covering up for some flawed defense partners over the years. He has the most complete skillset to mesh with everyone, so he’s their best option for the job on the second pair. It makes it tough for him to play the puck-moving game he was drafted for, but he adapts well and can eat minutes while keeping things in check at five-on-five. Will show flashes of skill and can be a dynamic threat on offense when he gets to jump into the play. Flyers de facto No. 1 defenseman heading into next year.

Cam York

The 2019 first round pick had to wait his turn, spending the first half of the season in Lehigh Valley before getting the call-up. Wanting to see what he could do; he was immediately put on the Flyers top pair with Ivan Provorov in a sink or swim situation. Playing on his offside, some aspects of the game were tough for him. York didn’t get to show much of his puck-moving skill in the defensive zone because of this, as Provorov handled most of the workload there while York stayed in coverage or provided support on breakouts. From the red line in, things were a little easier. He got to play similar to how he did in college, always looking to jump in or activate from the point and there was some trial and error. Not creating much offense in volume but showing some of the flash that made him a first-round pick. He has excellent edgework and is a great passer who can thread the needle through coverage. The Flyers tried to optimize this skillset while protecting him in the defensive zone and it worked to a point. This year, the training wheels will be coming off with Provorov gone and the Flyers having in their top-four. York showed he can be a useful player in controlled situations, now it’s about thriving in all situations.

Sean Walker

One of two players coming back to the Flyers in the Ivan Provorov deal, Sean Walker is hoping a change of scenery can help extend his NHL career. Part of the Kings previous prospect core, he proved that he belonged in the NHL, but became redundant with the rest of LA’s defense corps. Losing an entire season to a knee injury did him no favors, but the Kings had a lot of players of a similar ilk; a mobile defenseman who fits into that 5/6 mold rather than a true top-four. His skating will be a welcome addition to the Flyers blue line, as he can get up into the play and give the team’s rush offense a different look. The downside is he isn’t that dynamic when joining the rush, making safe plays and doing more to maintain possession rather than breaking the game open. There’s a place for that in the lineup, especially on a Flyers team looking for NHL depth. Sometimes all you need from your third pair is a guy who can make a breakout pass consistently and Walker can certainly fill that role.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:59:20 +0000

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 13: Philadelphia Flyers goalie Carter Hart (79) in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the Philadelphia Flyers on January 13, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Sean Couturier

What the Flyers get out of Sean Couturier will be their x-factor. Their workhorse center was limited to only 29 games after a back injury and subsequent surgery ended his season. He was having a tough year even before that, scoring only 7 points at five-on-five despite playing in a top-line role with Giroux and Konecny. In a normal year, he gives the Flyers a chance to win every game with how effective he is at driving the bus against top matchups, bringing the rest of the team along with him. Last year was a normal year for him in the play-driving department, but he didn’t have the scoring to back it up. The concern for Philly now is what is Couturier’s “new normal.” Is a guy who has played through a lot of injuries and last year was his most serious to date. Some players heal from back surgery, but it can also derail careers. Couturier plays a less physically demanding game than most shutdown center, so it’s possible that he can get back to his old self. Entering the first year of an eight-year contract, the Flyers future rests on his shoulders.

Kevin Hayes

It’s hard to think of a player who had a tougher season than Kevin Hayes. Between the tragic passing of his brother in the off-season and undergoing two abdominal surgeries the previous year, he was a guy everyone was rooting for. Unfortunately, he spent more time on the IR than on the ice yet again, this time with an infection in his groin that had to be drained. With the Flyers in rebuild mode, they’re hoping he can be a good leader for some of the new talent coming in and that he can return his 2019-20 form. While never a star, Hayes was a good goal-scorer and played an important role in bolstering the Flyers transition game. He was excellent at using his big body to create space for guys like Farabee and Konecny and getting them the puck with some space. With three core muscle procedures, it’s uncertain if he can play that type of workload again, but he remains the Flyers best option at 2C for the time being.

Joel Farabee

Two seasons were all the Flyers needed to see to make Joel Farabee part of their core, signing him to a six-year deal before the start of last season. To say it was rocky would be an understatement. He started the year off with a bang, scoring in his first three games and followed it up with a stretch of having only one goal through American Thanksgiving (about 14 games) before going on another three-game streak where he found the back of the net. The rest of the year followed a similar patter, scoring in bunches and going dormant for a stretch of 10+ games. It’s not that different than most goal-scorers, but the concern with Farabee is that there’s no shot volume or chance creation to back it up. He’s the type who will score a lot of tap-in goals or create off turnovers, so he’s more prone to streaks like this than others. He made improvements as a passer, but the Flyers will be hoping for more consistency out of him next year. Unfortunately, he will be recovering from neck surgery to start the year and won’t be available until November at the earliest.

James van Riesmdyk

Once the master of making skilled plays in front of the net, van Riemsdyk still has something to offer as a scoring winger. The way that he creates offense might be a little one-dimensional as a rebound hound, but JVR’s always brought a strong game away from the puck. One of the better forecheckers in the league while he was in his prime and someone who can help kill the clock while playing with a lead. Surprisingly led the Flyers in goals last year with a meager 24 tallies, nine of them coming on the power play, and was one of the few players who gave them some form of consistency. He plays the type of game where he’s easy to slide onto any line and give you decent results, which makes him an intriguing trade option while he’s in the final year of his contract. The Flyers are in a position to pump up his value if this is the route they want to go, as he was one of the few guys who produced on a terrible power play last year and will always score a healthy amount of goals because he creates so many chances from close range. Pairing him with a great passer or a strong territorial line could fetch Philadelphia a decent return come March.

Travis Konecny

Figuring out Travis Konecny’s ceiling will be an important part of the Flyers next chapter. Not even three years ago, he looked like a player who could regularly score 20+ goals and be one of the better right-wingers in the league. The past two seasons he has scored 27 total goals in 129 games, stuck in a major shooting percentage rut last year. There were parts of Konecny’s game that stayed consistent, as he still has the wheels to gain the zone and create off the rush like he used to. The shot volume is there, but the chance creation isn’t as high quality as it used to be. Part of it might be not having Claude Giroux by his side, as the two had great chemistry with stretch plays to get Konecny rush chances with speed. He had to alter his game a bit the past year, moving to a line with Sean Couturier or Scott Laughton and acting as more of a playmaker. Konecny had trouble getting space to shoot on his own, but his passing still gives him some high-end skill. He made the most out of a revolving door of linemates last year, leading the Flyers in assists and showing that he isn’t just a guy who can score off the rush. His play has been inconsistent the past two years, but he started to look like a guy who can drive his own line without an elite talent to supplement him. He should be the Flyers top offensive option behind Couturier next year.

Scott Laughton

A solid middle-six forward who won’t move the needle but keep the dial at a neutral pace when he’s out there. Laughton will have flashes of high-end skill and will go on a scoring tear from time-to-time, but for the most part he’s just a steadying presence who will work hard and stick to his assignments. The Flyers depend on him more than his statline suggests, as he has spent a lot of time alongside Kevin Hayes and James van Riemsdyk the past couple of years with some special teams’ time on top of that. He had to pick up a lot of slack with Couturier out last year, used all over the lineup and he eventually found some chemistry with Travis Konency. The two connected on some great deflection plays and injected some life into the Flyers offense for a brief spell. Like for most of his career, it was just a brief spell for Laughton and a head injury in early March all but ended his season. With new forwards coming into the fold, Laughton will likely slide into more of a pure third line role, but he is the type coaches will move up if the one of the top lines needs a spark.

Owen Tippett

It might not feel like it, but Owen Tippett is entering his third NHL season, albeit the first one where he actually has an opening night lineup spot penciled in. He showed in Florida that he isn’t afraid to shoot the puck and can command the offensive zone when he’s out there. The ability to score at the NHL level, however, is another story. He is currently stuck on 18 career goals in 115 games. He showed some improvement last year getting to the 10-goal mark but still leaving some goals on the table relative to how much offense he creates in volume. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for a prospect who scored from distance at lower levels, but him taking the next step would go along way for the Flyers rebuild. If he doesn’t, he’s still a solid winger and having a guy in your lineup who can create chances is still a plus. Injuries should keep him in the Flyers lineup come training camp, but he is more of a sleeper pick for being an impact player next year.

Cam Atkinson

One of John Tortella’s trusty horses from the Blue Jackets, Cam Atkinson was an early fan-favorite for the Flyers last year. He got off to a roaring start with six goals in his first seven games, which summed up how most of the season went for him as it was a tale of peaks and valleys. He scored only twice in November but responded well after that. He was the most reliable player on the Flyers for offense and all-around play during the doldrums of the season, tallying 28 points in 32 games from December through February. He ended the season on a tough note with only 5 goals in his last 21 games and recorded only 3 assists in his last 12. On the whole, it was a solid bounce-back year for the former Jackets sniper, although the process of getting there was a little rocky. He’s a shoot-first player and that’s not going to change but carrying so much of a workload for the Flyers seemed to wear on him as the season went on. You can usually count on his line to be on the right side of the goal and scoring chance battle and that fell off dramatically as the season went on. Inconsistent linemates from trades and injuries along with becoming a “go-to” guy at 33 years of age will do that. He should be a fixture in the Flyers lineup and is one of their more proven goal-scorers along with van Riemsdyk.

Morgan Frost

There were reasons to be excited about Morgan Frost’s potential heading into 2021. He showed flashes of becoming a future top-six player in his brief stint with the Flyers two years ago, showing a great knack for the details of the game as well as being a great playmaker. Shoulder surgery prematurely ended his 2021 season, and he didn’t make the Flyers out of training camp to start last year. Called up in late November, the former first round pick had an okay start centering a line with Cam Atkinson and Joel Farabee, getting on the scoresheet and looking like the guy they saw back in late 2019. As the season went on and the Flyers struggles continued, Frost became more of just another guy than a difference maker. Not doing anything bad but struggling to standout. Part of that is being relegated to a more of a grind line role and the other is just him struggling to translate his high-end skill to the pace of the game. They go hand-in-hand when you’re a player like Frost whose best skill is his passing and vision. It’s tough to setup any plays when the puck is always in the corner or you’re chasing the game. He’s an interesting puzzle piece for John Tortorella. There’s a lot of raw skill with Frost and encouraging him to lead the play a little more and use the tools that got him drafted could go a long way to him sticking around at the NHL level.

DEFENSE

Tony DeAngelo

Given yet another chance to turn his career around, DeAngelo’s one-year deal with the Hurricanes appeared to do just that. He quarterbacked a power play that was top-third in the league for most of the year and earned a promotion to the team’s top defense pair with Jaccob Slavin after a couple months. It was a good setup for him with Slavin handling most of the work along the boards and DeAngelo just needing to read the play and jump in when he needed to. It allowed him to play to his strengths and spend more time in the offensive zone, an area where he’s very proficient. That said, it also showed his limitations. He’s a smaller defenseman who doesn’t handle forecheck pressure well and his passive nature in the defensive zone left him open to some blown assignments and misreads. The hope is that his talents on offense would outweigh the bad and that he could keep his emotions in check, which he did up until the playoffs when the games got tougher. The Flyers will have a more difficult time utilizing DeAngelo in the same role unless Provorov has a rebound season. There is a lot he can do for a power play that will be restructured this year, but they aren’t as well-equipped to play him top-pair minutes and his five-on-five impact will take a hit. DeAngelo was able to coast for most of the year in Carolina and he won’t have that luxury with the Flyers.

Ivan Provorov

There are tough minutes and then there is playing top-pairing minutes on a struggling team. Provorov fell into that class, playing his usual 24-25 minutes a night and going through the motions once the Flyers fell into a rut. At the age of 25, he has a career’s worth of miles on his tires and his level of play usually follows the rest of the team. When the Flyers are good, Provorov’s an effective, mobile top-pair defenseman who does a little of everything for you. When the team is struggling, he has a hard time helping the team dictate the play. It might speak to his own limitations as a player that even if he has the conditioning to play heavy minutes, he doesn’t have the skillset to carry the defense on his back. Provorov still does a lot of things well and skates better than most forwards, but his game is a little more reactionary now. He’s more effective at angling off forwards into a corner than going for the poke-check at the line. He can make safe plays out of the zone to mitigate damage but gets knocked off the puck more often now when retrieving dump-ins. The mistakes added up more than they used to, and the Flyers plans to supplement him were foiled with Ryan Ellis’ injury problems. He will be the most interesting player to watch under the new coaching staff, as John Tortorella and Brad Shaw have a great track record with defensemen and will find a way to take some of the burden in the d-zone off Provorov.

Travis Sanheim

One of the few players on the Flyers who objectively had a good year and the only Flyer defenseman to post a positive on-ice goal differential. Sanheim’s accomplishments last year might not seem like a big deal, but it was a big development for the Flyers in what was as tumultuous year. Having a player who didn’t let the team’s struggles drag down his own game is a big deal for a rebuilding team and potentially gives them a building block. Sanheim has more of a “jack of all trade” skillset by the eye but had more moments where he could drag the Flyers back into a game with a great rush or a pass to setup a scoring chance. The downside for the Flyers is that they already signed him to a two-year deal that will take him to UFA status after this season, giving them huge decision to make. You’d figure Sanheim would figure into their long-term plans. He showed last year that he can drive play and bounce-back in a tough environment, but with three defensemen already making over $5 mil., things start to get dicey. As good as Sanheim is, he doesn’t produce a lot of points and that could work in the Flyers favor as far as a new contract goes. Seeing if he can repeat his success from last year will likely be the deciding factor on if he’s part of the Flyers long-term plans.

Rasmus Ristolainen

Ristolainen’s first season as a Flyer was similar to his many years as a Sabre. Poor underlying numbers mixed with a wide range of opinions on his play from observers. Casted in more of a pure defensive role, Ristolainen acted as a safety valve for Travis Sanheim, not used on the power play and staying high in the zone instead of pinching for offense. It’s a little different from his peak years, as Buffalo got a lot of mileage out of him on the power play, an area of the game he thrived in. With the Flyers, he almost never touched the puck and if he did, it was gone within a second. His job was to throw hits and protect the front of the net. Whether or not he did that depends on who you ask but the Flyers saw enough to want to keep him around for five more years, re-signing him around the trade deadline despite interest from other teams. Shutdown defensemen come in all forms and players who throw their weight around like Ristolainen are still highly regarded in hockey circles. It gets magnified when they’re casted in a pure defensive role and you see a lot of good mixed with bad. Some might see Ristolainen putting himself out of position to throw a big hit or chasing a mistake, others might laud him for his willingness to play physical. Tortorella’s been one to value players like him (see Dan Girardi and David Savard) so he should continue to get heavy defensive usage in Philly next year.

GOALTENDING

Carter Hart

There might be no goaltender in the NHL being asked to do more with less than Philadelphia’s Carter Hart. The Flyers, who have struggled for years to establish a consistent baseline in net, responded to a lackluster third year in the league for Hart by adding a struggling reclamation project in Martin Jones in 2021-22 – then thanked Hart for a moderate statistical bounce-back by walking Jones in free agency and failing to replace him with just a month and change left before opening night.

The woes aren’t entirely the team’s fault, as there was little way to predict that Russian-born prospect goaltender Ivan Fedotov would be detained by the Russian military and hospitalized after being sent to a remote detention center. Still, it’s hard once again to piece together what the Flyers are hoping for as they enter the 2022-23 campaign offering Hart no backup outside of prospect Felix Sandstrom. Hart’s game is based on a foundation that sees the Canadian netminder operate from a central reset position, hinging out to challenge shots as they approach but returning to a consistent and established ‘home base’ once the action has died down. That makes it hard to feel overly confident that he can regain his form, which relies on accuracy and precision to go with predictive tracking over reactionary movements, when being asked to provide high-volume reps behind a team that still hasn’t managed to right the ship. If he can’t start off the year with his technique in top form, he’ll be trying to fix his game from a tougher position if he doesn’t have reinforcements. The good news, though, is that the vote of confidence the team is clearly giving him with their current goaltending depth offerings could be the catalyst he needs to shake off the goalie ‘twistys’ he seemed to suffer during his last few years. It’s too early to write off what Philadelphia is trying to do – even if it’s also too early to applaud it, per se.

Projected starts: 60-65

Scott Cullen’s 20 Points on Fantasy Hockey 3/10/21 – Consistent shooters getting rewarded

Scott Cullen — Wed, 10 Mar 2021 20:18:49 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, some consistent shooters are getting rewarded, a Pittsburgh star is turning around his season, Buffalo’s best are having a hard time, and heavy hitters have value too.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

#1 I wrote last week about how unfortunate Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell had been around the net this season, scoring two goals on 69 shots. The underlying message was that his shot rates still gave reason for hope that Rakell would start finding the net. A week later, he has scored four goals on 14 shots in the past four games and is suddenly one of the hottest scorers in the league with 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak.

#2 Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine was supposed to add a jolt of electricity to the Columbus attack and it just has not materialized, in part because he is not getting enough chances to shoot the puck. In 17 games with Columbus, Laine is generating 5.35 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play. His lowest shot rate in Winnipeg was 7.53 shots/60 when he was a rookie in 2016-2017. The story is not any better on the power play either. During 5-on-4 action, Laine’s shot rate is similar to last season but 20.5 shot attempts/60 is easily a career low and 0.67 expected goals/60 is also a career low. All of this is to suggest that if the Blue Jackets would like to get their sniper out of his seven-game scoreless slump, he needs to get more opportunities to shoot the puck.

#3 This does not absolve Laine, by the way. His most common linemates, Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson, have had better results away from Laine so this story is not about how they must feed their scoring winger, even though that may be part the answer. The other part is that Laine has to be more intent on getting his shots and he is a player who tends to require assistance in that part of the game, as opposed to creating his own scoring opportunities. He did record six shots on goal against Florida Tuesday so that is a step in the right direction, but his shot volume has to improve if he is going to live up to expectations.

#4 In 2018-2019, Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals while scoring on 18.6% of his shots. Some good fortune to score at that rate. Last season, regression hit hard and even with improved shot volume, his shooting percentage plummeted to 8.6% and DeBrincat finished with 18 goals in 70 games. This season, he is shooting even more, up from 2.96 shots per game to 3.43 shots per game, and with his shooting percentage jumping back up to 17.7%, DeBrincat has 14 goals in 23 games. That shooting percentage may be a little lofty, but it is easier to expect sustained offense out of DeBrincat if his shot rate remains high.

#5 A player who was generating shots and scoring chances early in the season, with very little to show for it, is Ottawa Senators right winger Drake Batherson, who had one goal on 38 shots through 16 games and even that goal was on the power play. Batherson has since broken through for eight goals in the past 12 games, including none in the past four games so he did have a stretch of eight goals in eight games. The nature of goal-scoring is such that players may run through hot and cold stretches but that is why it is important to keep generating shots so that the opportunity is there for pucks to get into the net.

#6 So which forward might be generating shots at a high rate that might not be finishing so successfully yet? San Jose right winger Timo Meier, Ottawa left winger Brady Tkachuk, Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon, Nashville right winger Viktor Arvidsson, Boston right winger Craig Smith, and Buffalo left winger Jeff Skinner are among the Top 15 in shot attempts/60 during 5-on-5 play but are all scoring on less than 7% of their 5-on-5 shots on net. You are not likely to get bargains on Tkachuk or MacKinnon and Skinner’s situation in Buffalo does not warrant much fantasy interest but Timo Meier and possibly Viktor Arvidsson could have some upside.

#7 Regression is not merely about unsustainably high percentages coming down. Sometimes the reverse is true. Consider Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore, who has emerged as a dynamic puck-moving defenseman. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, Theodore’s on-ice shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play was 6.4%, eighth lowest among defensemen to play at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes in those two seasons and lowest among defensemen that played at least 2000 minutes. This season, his on-ice shooting percentage is 11.5%, which is unsustainably high, but he has been due for better on-ice results.

#8 This season has seemingly been a struggle for Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has just eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 15 games. He has never been a high-volume shooter but Kuznetsov’s shot rate at 5-on-5 (6.5 per 60) is better than the past couple of seasons and the Capitals are creating 57.0 shot attempts/60, which is a career high for Kuznetsov. The problem, at least for 5-on-5 play, is that Kuznetsov’s percentages are way down. He is scoring on 4.6% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4% is a career low; his on-ice shooting percentage had been over 10.0% in the previous five seasons, over 11.0% in the past two.

#9 One of the issues affecting Kuznetsov’s point production, beyond those percentages, is that his power play ice time is down from 3:11 per game last season to 2:01 per game this season.

#10 With Jack Eichel out of the Sabres lineup for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, it is noteworthy just how poor his production has been this season and it entirely possible that the injury has played a significant part in his struggles. Eichel has just two goals in 21 games but the underlying numbers are terrible, too. His 5-on-5 shot (7.0 per 60) and expected goals rates (0.54 per 60) are at career lows.

#11 Compare that to Taylor Hall, another Buffalo forward with just two goals in 24 games. Hall’s 5-on-5 shot rate (7.3 per 60) is a career low but his expected goals (0.82 per 60) is consistent with his past two seasons, so he has 4.87 expected goals to this point in the season yet has managed just one goal at 5-on-5.

#12 Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin got off to a rough start this season, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 26 shots on goal in his first 13 games. For a 34-year-old player who typically generates a lot of shots this was a little concerning. Since then, Malkin has 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in 12 games. There is a big jump in point production with an extra half shot on goal per game but the notable difference for Malkin is in power play shooting where his 5-on-4 shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 minutes have all spiked.

First 13 games (5-on-4): 16.8 iCF/60, 6.1 shots/60, 0.42 ixG/60

Next 12 games (5-on-4): 32.2 iCF/60, 16.1 shots/60, 1.73 ixG/60

#13 It is possible to be a factor in fantasy hockey without putting up points. It’s not easy but peripheral categories like hits and blocked shots have value, too. Florida defenseman Radko Gudas leads the league with 118 hits in 24 games, an average of 4.9 per game. At his most rambunctious days with Philadelphia in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, Gudas averaged 4.1 hits per game, so he has increased his hit rate by nearly 20% despite a decrease in ice time from those heavy-hitting days with the Flyers.

#14 Other hitters that are not necessarily going to draw interest with their point production but still can lower the boom and help your fantasy team: Pittsburgh winger Brandon Tanev (4.7 hits per game), Anaheim defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (4.0 hits per game), and Vegas enforcer Ryan Reaves (3.9 hits/game).

#15 There are four defensemen that have played at least 10 games and have averaged at least two hits and two blocked shots per game: Adam Larsson, Calvin de Haan, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard. Larsson is the only one averaging three hits and three blocks per game.

#16 The most prolific shooter in the league who is still available in many leagues is Minnesota Wild right winger Kevin Fiala, who is generating 3.6 shots per game. He started the season with no goals in the first four games, then scored six goals in seven games, then no goals in six games, and now has two goals in the past three games. Overall, he has eight goals in 20 games. The bigger issue for Fiala’s production is that he has just three assists after he had 31 assists in 64 games last season.

#17 Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having the best season of his career, at least through 16 games. He leads the league with a .943 save percentage and his .926 save percentage during 4-on-5 play and .942 save percentage during 5-on-5 play are the high-water marks for his career.

#18 While the shot and expected goal rates have been similar to previous seasons, Fleury has reaped the rewards of outstanding penalty killing from the Golden Knights so far this season. See the difference of Vegas’ on-ice results during 4-on-5 play with Fleury in net compared to last season. There has been a dramatic decline in Corsi, shots, and expected goals against.

2019-2020 (4-on-5): 97.9 CA/60, 50.8 SA/60, 6.04 xGA/60

2020-2021 (4-on-5): 70.2 CA/60, 27.9 SA/60, 3.93 xGA/60

#19 Philadelphia defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has climbed out of the doghouse and is playing much more aggressively. A healthy scratch early in the season, Gostisbehere has five points (4 G, 1 A) with 31 shots on goal in the past eight games. Among defensemen who have played at least minutes in 5-on-4 situations this season, Gostisbehere has the highest rate of Corsi/60 (32.4), shots/60 (19.9), and expected goals/60 (1.56).

#20 Other defensemen that have high shot rates yet are still available in fantasy leagues: Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, and New Jersey’s P.K. Subban.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2021 NHL YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-Stars

Scott Cullen — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:09:45 +0000

FANTASY ALL-STARS

There are many reasons why a player might not be valued in the fantasy hockey marketplace. Often, that discrepancy between market value and expectations for a new season can be tied to poor percentages the year before.

It’s important to understand that shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage can fluctuate in small samples and from one year to the next there can be dramatic shifts and the changes in those percentages ultimately change goal and point production, too.

But there are other reasons why a player might be in position to exceed expectations in a new season. Maybe the player is coming back from injury or has moved to a new team or is looking at a bigger role on the power play; all of these factors could put a player in a better position to produce.

Last year’s Fantasy All-Stars article included the likes of Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, William Nylander, Jaden Schwartz, and Kevin Fiala among those who were much more valuable by the end of the season than they might have been expected to be at the beginning. It also included Alex Galchenyuk, so there are no guarantees here but there are some tried and frequently true methods for seeking out players who can exceed expectations and thereby provide fantasy value that can make a difference in your league.

Opportunity matters, fluctuations in percentages matter, and when it comes to value in fantasy drafts, perception matters.

While someone like Taylor Hall should be better this season than he was last season, there’s not necessarily a lot of value to be gained because there’s naturally quite a bit of hype surrounding his move to Buffalo and the possibility of playing with Jack Eichel.

Hall is a good bet to have a bounce-back season and he could very well be one of the top left wingers by season’s end but that’s going to be a very popular take so there isn’t necessarily a lot of excess value to be gained unless he has a truly exceptional campaign.

Here are my Fantasy All-Stars for the 2020-2021 NHL season, players that may be able to provide good value relative to their preseason expectations.

FORWARDS

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 20: New Jersey Devils left wing Nikita Gusev (97) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the San Jose Sharks on February 20, 2020 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo

After burying 40 goals in 2018-2019, Skinner crashed to just 14 goals and 23 points in 59 games in 2019-2020. However, he remains an elite shot generator with more than three shots on goal per game in every season since his second year in the league and that can turn around results in a hurry once the percentages pendulum swings. The Sabres have added talent to their top six up front, bringing in Hall and Eric Staal, so Skinner should benefit from having more skill around him in the lineup.

Nikita Gusev, LW, New Jersey

It took some time for Gusev to transition from the KHL to the NHL last season and he had 14 points in his first 29 games. But from mid-December on, shortly after the Devils made a coaching change, Gusev saw his ice time increase and he produced 30 points in 37 games. He should be poised to play a prominent role for the Devils right from the start of this season.

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal

The playmaking pivot showed well in his rookie season, putting up 41 points in 71 games, but his work in the postseason should elevate expectations. With their season on the line, the Habs leaned even more on Suzuki and he had seven points and 27 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in 10 playoff games. If Suzuki gets that kind of ice time from the start of this season, he should see a spike in production.

Robert Thomas, RW, St. Louis

The third year Blues winger has been on an upward trajectory and he produced 26 points in 33 games after Christmas last season. With Vladimir Tarasenko expected to miss much of this season, the opportunity is there for Thomas to take on an even bigger offensive role.

Denis Gurianov, RW, Dallas

While the 23-year-old winger was the only 20-goal scorer on the Stars last season, he also managed just nine assists and ranked 11^th among Dallas forwards in average time on ice. Even if Gurianov doesn’t score on more than 15% of his shots again he has the potential for increased production just based on the possibility of receiving more ice time because he’s too good to be limited to 13 minutes per game.

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey

It’s hard to fly under the radar as a first overall pick but Hughes’ value is surely depressed after a rookie season in which he slumped at the end with one assist in his last 14 games, finishing with 21 points in 61 games. But there are also reasons to be optimistic about Hughes’ chances heading into his sophomore campaign. The first is that his percentages have to get better. Hughes had a shooting percentage of 5.7% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1%; both very low. The second is that Hughes is outstanding at transporting the puck, with control, from the defensive zone into the offensive zone. If he can still do that and the percentages start to fall his way, Hughes’ production could take off.

Kevin Labanc, RW, San Jose

Even after getting an extra couple of minutes of ice time per game last season, Labanc saw his point total fall from 56 points in 82 games in 2018-2019 to just 33 points in 70 games last season. Despite creating a lot of opportunities during 5-on-5 play last season, Labanc’s percentages dropped significantly from the previous season. He should have an important enough role in San Jose to have it pay off if the percentages flip again.

Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus

The veteran winger went from a career-high 41 goals and 69 points in 2018-2019 to 12 goals and 26 points in 44 games last season. He still generated more than three shots on goal per game for the third straight season and remains a part of Columbus’ first power play unit. He also had career low shooting and on-ice shooting percentages so a healthy Atkinson will be set for a bounce-back performance this season.

Kirby Dach, C, Chicago

The third overall pick in 2019, Dach was fine as a rookie, contributing 23 points in 64 games but his play in the bubble should increase anticipation for what he might accomplish in his second season. Not only did Dach produce six points in nine playoff games but he averaged 19:24 of ice time per game, a boost of more than five minutes per game over the regular season. Part of that boost was finding a role on Chicago’s top power play unit so Dach could be ready to provide significant secondary offense. (Editors Note: Kirby Dach suffered an injury in the World Junior Championship and is likely t miss much, if not all, of the season)

Vincent Trocheck, C, Carolina

Since suffering a broken ankle in November of 2018, Trocheck has produced 58 points in 99 games. That after producing 88 points in the 99 games that he had played before suffering that injury. This season may provide a better chance for Trocheck to recapture his form, especially with a Hurricanes team that has tended to dominate shot counts in recent seasons.

Ryan Donato, LW, San Jose

Although he has not had a consistent role since arriving in the league, Donato has been a high-end shot generator and he did score a career-high 14 goals while playing 10:38 per game for the Wild last season. The move to San Jose brings a real opportunity for Donato to get more ice time and, with quality linemates, Donato could surprise.

Paul Stastny, C, Winnipeg

Stastny will be 35 years old by the time next season starts, which isn’t the ideal time to go picking someone for a bounce-back season. The value here is in expecting his production to recover from a season in which he finished with 38 points, his lowest in a season in which he played at least 50 games. His on-ice shooting percentage of 6.9% last season was the second lowest of his career so it’s not that difficult to imagine Stastny returning to Winnipeg, where he had great production in a small sample late in the 2017-2018 season, and finding finishers who can help boost his point production.

DEFENSE

TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 05: Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Sean Walker (26) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 5, 2019, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

P.K. Subban, New Jersey

It’s not like Subban could ever be forgotten but he did have a career-low 18 points in 68 games last season. However, the main issue is that he struggled on the power play and the Devils gave Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson significant time on the point with the man advantage. If Subban can get back to producing on the power play he could once again be a difference maker.

Tyson Barrie, Edmonton

The move to Toronto did not start out well for Barrie, who managed seven points in 23 games before the Maple Leafs fired head coach Mike Babcock. A new coach offered Barrie more freedom and he produced a much more typical 32 points in 47 games the rest of the way. He moves to Edmonton, where the Oilers need a power play quarterback because of Oscar Klefbom’s injury. Playing a critical role on the league’s best power play is a great place for Barrie to re-establish his value.

Erik Gustafsson, Philadelphia

A quality puck-moving defenseman who has produced 27 power play points in the past two seasons, Gustafsson did see his total points drop from 60 points in 2018-2019 to 29 last season, which is part of the reason that he may be a fantasy bargain. Gustafsson should be looking at a big role on a Philadelphia blueline that can use him in a top four role after Matt Niskanen retired.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston

The departure of Torey Krug to St. Louis leaves a spot open on Boston’s top power play unit and McAvoy, the Bruins’ best defenseman, could be the beneficiary. In his first three NHL seasons, McAvoy has contributed 1.23 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, which ranks 12th among defensemen (between Gustafsson and Barrie) so he has the offensive chops to handle the job.

Rasmus Andersson, Calgary

The Flames have overhauled their blueline and Andersson appears set to take on an even bigger role than the one he played last season when he logged nearly 20 minutes per game. He’s also probably due for an uptick in on-ice shooting percentage from last season’s 6.2% giving him a chance to make a more notable offensive contribution.

Sean Walker, Los Angeles

Drew Doughty is ahead of Walker on the Kings first power play unit, which does put a limit on the upside of the third-year defender, but Walker is capable of generating shots and contributed 24 points in 70 games despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% last season.

GOALIES

EDMONTON, AB - DECEMBER 14: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Mikko Koskinen (19) makes a blocker save in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on December 14, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.(Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton

The Oilers are playing to win now and if they are intent on being competitive, Koskinen is the goaltender that gives them the best chance. He wasn’t very effective in four playoff appearances last year but he was above average in 38 regular season games, which should give him the edge on Mike Smith for the starter’s job and if Koskinen is starting for an Oilers team that should be a playoff team, he can be a rather useful fantasy netminder. That he hasn’t yet established a great reputation, as a 32-year-old who has played just 97 career NHL games, is an advantage in this case as Koskinen should be relatively inexpensive on draft day.

Frederik Andersen, Toronto

From 2016-2017 through 2018-2019, the Maple Leafs netminder won 107 games while posting a .918 save percentage, rating well above average. Last season wasn’t quite at that level. Andersen still won 29 of 52 starts but his .909 save percentage was a little below average and it’s that dip in save percentage, coupled with Andersen getting outdueled by Columbus’ goaltenders in the play-in series, that should make Andersen a little more cost friendly for what he can provide. He still has a contending team in front of him and if he bounces back to previous form, Andersen will have a chance to provide a great return on investment.

Straitjackets – Columbus Blue Jackets 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 19:08:04 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - Columbus made the playoffs for the second straight season under John Tortorella, bowing out in the first round to the inevitable cup winners Washington losing 4 – 2 – pushing four games into overtime. The two most important items on the team’s plate is their franchise goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and offensive sparkplug in Panarin are both unrestricted free agents after this season.

Panarin had a brilliant season leading the team in scoring but has expressed his reluctance to sign long term in Columbus. Bobrovsky is a two-time Vezina winner and last season was a typical stellar performance, appeared in 65 games (4^th most in the NHL), fifth in NHL wins, 10^th in save percentage (0.921) and 9^th in GAA (2.42 for goalies with more than 30 games played. Both are elite performers, with a perennial Vezina nominee irreplaceable. Until signed or traded their status will haunt the team.

Seth Jones

CHANING OF THE GUARD – a compelling story and reason for optimism was a generational changing of the guard over the course of the season. Young prospects replaced the old guard as core competitors and were deployed in key situations. Their top seven scorers included defenseman Seth Jones, (23 years old – 24:36 TOI/GP – 57 points), Zachary Werenski (20 years old – 22:35 TOI/GP - 37 points), forwards Pierre Luc Dubois (20 years old – 16:38 TOI/GP – 48 points), Oliver Bjorkstrand (23 years old – 14:18 TOI/GP – 40 points) and Alexander Wennberg (23 years old – 18:08 TOI/GP – 35 points in 66 games). They replaced more familiar Blue Jackets from the last five years of Nick Foligno, Brandon Dubinsky and Jack Johnson.

Rounding out the top seven scorers are Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Atkinson struggled with injuries early on but was electric down the stretch when paired with Panarin and Dubois posting 14 goals and 25 points in his final 20 games. Dubois fired 19 points in his final 21 games while Panarin put up an astonishing 33 points in his final 20 games. As a result, the team record over the final quarter was 15-5-2, including a 10-game winning streak in a 13 -1 – 0 stretch. .

The emergence of Pierre-Luc Dubois as a number one center in his rookie season justified GM Kekkalainen decision to take him third overall in the 2016 draft. He particularly shone in the second half after getting adjusted to pace in the NHL. He added two goals and four point in the playoffs while playing 23:09 per game. Oliver Bjorkstrand and Alexander Wennberg are promising but had mixed seasons. Wennberg entered the season as a number one center, but injury and inconsistency were a challenge, fighting a groin issue much of the season. Bjorkstrand saw a mixed bag of line mates but as a shooter to Wennbergs passer they seem like a match. 24-year-old Josh Anderson is a promising young power forward who was firing at a pace to start the season with 10 goals in 17 games after missing pre-season. Offence slowed from there and is not a given to play in the top six this season.

Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky had come to personify the Blue Jackets with their gritty two way play and soft hands on the right occasion. Dubinsky endured a terrible season with injury issues. A healthy scratch at times down the stretch the A was removed from his sweater. He had a healthy summer and is signed for another three years at 32 years of age at a cap hit of $5.85 million AAV.

Foligno is likewise signed up for the three years at $5.5 million and is coming of the worst season of his career. 30-years-old the Captain is proud and capable of providing a solid comeback. He saw his power play production drop from 21 points to four last season despite similar ice time. Dubinsky and Foligno are expensive pieces if they are third and fourth line producers. A rebound is in order or both contracts become albatrosses when it comes time to sign Panarin and Bobrovsky.

JONES A NORRIS THREAT - Seth Jones emerged as a potential Norris trophy threat finishing fourth this year in voting. A blazing finish with 21 points in 17 games down the stretch, a strong argument to be made he was the best defenseman in the NHL at the time. Paired with Zach Werenski for most of the season they are formidable top pairing defense. Werenski enters his third NHL season with a slight regression in points from a 47-point rookie season but owns a bright future.

Beyond those two there are some concerns about depth. Formers second overall pick Ryan Murray had another season shortened by injury and his development has been slowed by consistent missed time. He kills penalties and it is too soon to write him off but doubts are growing. He is an RFA after this season.

OUTLOOK - Assuming nothing earth shattering happens; the Blue Jackets will return with relatively few changes to their core. They have elite young stars that will get better. They will be competitive again and could surprise in the playoffs in front of the all-world goalie.