CHRIS KREIDER – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Veterans who are elevating their play, including Zach Hyman, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, Ryan Hartman, Claude Giroux, David Perron, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 27 Dec 2025 16:22:00 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, veterans who are elevating their play, including Zach Hyman, Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly, Ryan Hartman, Claude Giroux, David Perron, and so much more!

#1 Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman was not ready to start the season, as he recovered from wrist surgery, so he didn’t get into the lineup until mid-November and even then it took him some time to get up to speed. It does appear that he’s starting to cook. In his past 11 games, Hyman has 15 points (9 G, 6 A) and 34 shots on goal. He’s getting first unit power play time and skating on the Oilers’ top line with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, so Hyman should be in a prime position for the rest of the season.

#2 In his first 29 games this season, Nashville Predators right winger Steven Stamkos had 11 points (8 G, 3 A) and when that happens to a player in his mid-30s, it can look like the end is near. He has turned back the clock recently, however, putting up 11 points (7 G, 4 A) with 29 shots on goal in his past seven games. He’s skating on a veteran line with Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg and the key is that Stamkos is generating shots on goal. In his first 29 games, he had just 58 shots on goal, so to go from two shots per game to more than four shots per game in this recent uptick in his performance shows that he can still be a legitimate offensive threat.

#3 Ryan O’Reilly has been a huge part of the Predators’ resurgence. In the past 14 games, the Preds are 10-4 and O’Reilly has 19 points (5 G, 14 A) in those 14 games. He has just 23 shots on goal, and a low shot rate is a concern for offensive sustainability, but O’Reilly is a consistent play driver year after year and that has continued this season in Nashville, with a 55.8 CF%, which would represent the best Corsi percentage of his career.

#4 Although he moves around the Minnesota Wild lineup quite a bit, there is usually reason to like when Ryan Hartman gets his turn playing on the top line. With Marco Rossi dealt to Vancouver in the Quinn Hughes trade, Hartman has moved in between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, with Hartman putting up seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games, after he had eight points (4 G, 4 A) through his first 29 games this season.

#5 The Ottawa Senators are getting quality production from veteran wingers Claude Giroux and David Perron. Giroux has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past seven games while Perron has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. They are getting second unit power play time and, for a pair of 37-year-olds, they are still providing reliable secondary scoring for the Sens. As with many of the veterans in this week’s article, they are not producing at the level of their best career performance but in their mid-30s that’s not a reasonable expectation and it is part of the reason that these players are more widely available.

#6 When he was acquired by the Ottawa Senators from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund responded with a meagre five points (3 G, 2 A) and 40 shots on goal in 20 games. He followed that up by starting this season with four points (1 G, 3 A) and 28 shots on goal in his first 20 games, but he has turned the corner and is now a solid offensive contributor on a talented Senators squad. In his past 16 games, Zetterlund has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 38 shots on goal, and appears to have secured a regular spot on the top line alongside Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk.

#7 With injuries decimating the Tampa Bay Lightning blueline, Darren Raddysh has been the primary beneficiary from an offensive standpoint, as he is quarterbacking the top power play unit and producing at an elite level. His partner, J.J. Moser, has been making inroads recently, with five points and 16 shots on goal while averaging 23:32 of ice time in his past six games. Moser only had seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 34 shots on goal in his previous 28 games, but he does seem equipped to provide more offense than that.

#8 Although he is getting surpassed by his younger teammates in San Jose, Sharks right winger Tyler Toffoli has put up 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games, recording two four-point games in the process. Toffoli is skating on San Jose’s second line, alongside William Eklund and Alexander Wennberg, while also getting time with the top power play unit.

#9 At this stage of his career, 40-year-old Colorado Avalanche defenceman Brent Burns is not the focal point for offense on the blueline, but he hasn’t abandoned those parts of his game, either. In his past 12 games, he has delivered eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 26 shots on goal, while averaging 19:44 of ice time per game. Only one of Burns’ 19 points this season have come on the power play, so there is a limit to his offensive contribution, but he remains a contributor for an Avalanche team that is steamrolling the rest of the league.

#10 Staying on the Colorado blueline, Samuel Girard has suddenly started to provide offense. In his past six games, Girard has six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal, but he had just two assists in the 15 games that he played before that. Like Burns, Girard is not getting power play time in Colorado, but the Avs are so good that it could be worth considering these guys in deeper leagues.

#11 Winnipeg Jets forward Morgan Barron has never scored more than 21 points in an NHL season, but that could change this season. He has found a role on Winnipeg’s third line, alongside Adam Lowry and Alex Iafallo, and in his past six games, Barron has five points (4 G, 1 A) and a dozen shots on goal. He is up to 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 29 games this season, so he has a real chance to set a career high in point production. For fantasy managers, his appeal is mostly in very deep leagues, though his offensive surge coupled with 67 hits in 29 games does give him some added fantasy value.

#12 It seems as though Oliver Bjorkstrand has been underutilized in Tampa Bay, as he is playing just 14:23 per game, which would be his lowest average time on ice since 2018-2019. However, in his past seven games, Bjorkstrand does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal while playing 15:32 per game. He is currently on the Lightning’s second line, with Nick Paul and Jake Guentzel.

#13 Buffalo Sabres left winger Zach Benson was having a hard time finding the back of the net, going without a goal in his first 17 games of this season, but he has started to put it together recently. In his past six games, Benson has five points (3 g, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal, As the Sabres are making a concerted effort to turn their season around, Benson is getting first unit power play time while skating on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn at even strength.

#14 After a slow start to the season that saw him demoted to the fourth line, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov does seem to be back on track. In his past nine games, Svechnikov has 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and 20 shots on goal. He’s now skating on a line with Jordan Staal and Jackson Blake, which is more of a two-way line than usual, but Svechnikov is delivering results.

#15 The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired left winger Mason Marchment from the Seattle Kraken after the consensus was that Marchment’s time in Seattle was just not a good fit. After he had 13 points (4 G, 9 A) with 46 shots on goal in 29 games, which was not the kind of production that he was providing in his previous seasons with Dallas. Early returns in Columbus are more promising, as he has been playing with Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko and Marchment has three goals and seven shots on goal in his first two games with Columbus. He is still more of a deep league option for fantasy managers, but he has a chance to provide value.

#16 The Buffalo Sabres are turning around their season and goaltender Alex Lyon is putting up great results. He has won each of his past six starts, posting a .922 save percentage. When the Sabres’ season looked like it was getting away from them, it was looking more likely that Lyon or Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen could get traded, but now that the Sabres have moved to within two points of a Wild Card playoff spot, they are more likely to stick with their tandem.

#17 While the Seattle Kraken are battling to stay in the playoff hunt, currently three points back of the second Wild Card spot, they are getting quality play from goaltender Joey Daccord. In his past five starts, Daccord has won three while posting a .934 save percentage. On the season, Daccord has 4.14 Goals Saved Above Expected, which is the kind of goaltending that can keep a team in the playoff race and it might make him a viable fantasy option.

#18 When looking for players who might be ready to bust out offensively, consider those that have not been living up to their underlying numbers. Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog, for example, has just one goal in 11 games this month, despite having 5.70 individual expected goals in all situations. Some other players whose goal numbers have been below expected goals in December: William Eklund (-4.25), Anthony Cirelli (-4.04), Chris Kreider (-3.88), John Tavares (-3.61), Rickard Rakell (-3.36), Logan Stankoven (-3.21), Jake DeBrusk (-3.20), Nico Hischier (-3.12), Tom Wilson (-3.11), and Jake Guentzel (-2.83).

#19 With Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar injured, the Chicago Blackhawks have veterans Jason Dickinson and Ryan Donato holding down their top two centre spots. Donato played a season-high 21:35 in the last game before the break and does have a goal and an assist in his past two games, so he may have some short-term appeal while the Blackhawks are in the tough situation of missing their top two centres.

#20 Newly acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Tristan Jarry suffered a lower-body injury that should keep him out for a couple of weeks and that has opened the door for Connor Ingram, who has won his first couple of starts with Edmonton, stopping 92.0 percent of the shots that he faced in the first two games. He had a .856 save percentage in 11 AHL appearances, so it’s not like he was forcing his way back into the NHL with his play, but the Oilers are playing better and if it means that Ingram can get comfortable in the NHL again, he could at least have short term appeal for fantasy managers.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – This week, the good and the bad with the Ottawa Senators, a young Ducks centre steps into the spotlight, a Wild rookie offering upside on the blueline, and a Red Wings veteran who is ready to find the net.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Oct 2025 21:13:15 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 24: Minnesota Wild defenseman Zeev Buium (8) skates with the puck during the first period in Game Three of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild on April 24th, 2025, at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the good and the bad with the Ottawa Senators, a young Ducks centre steps into the spotlight, a Wild rookie offering upside on the blueline, and a Red Wings veteran who is ready to find the net.

#1 With six goals in five games, Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto is tied with Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev for the early goal-scoring lead in the National Hockey League. While he is obviously not going to continue at a 98-goal pace, Pinto does have some underlying factors that could help this become his best season in the NHL. The first is that his ice time is up nearly a minute per game from last season and the second is that his rate of shots per game has climbed from 1.81 last season to 3.0 per game early this season. It’s the consistent shot generation that helps to keep production sustainable.

#2 The more immediate concern for the Senators is that team captain Brady Tkachuk will be out from six-to-eight weeks following thumb surgery. Tkachuk is not easily replaced, because there are so few players of his size and physical nature that can also produce offensively. Ridly Greig is getting a chance alongside Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux on Ottawa’s top line, and there is enough time for him to show what he can do in a bigger role.

#3 After making steady progress through his first two NHL seasons, Anaheim Ducks centre Leo Carlsson could be ready to bust out in his third season. He has started the year with six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in four games. He currently has veterans Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn on his wings, but Carlsson has had success with Troy Terry on his wing and, last season, thrived with Cutter Gauthier. There are options for the Ducks, but it appears that 20-year-old Carlsson might be ready to be the driving force on his line.

#4 Expectations have been very high for Minnesota Wild defenceman Zeev Buium since he was taken with the 12th pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. He had 98 points (24 G, 74 A) in 83 games in two seasons at the University of Denver, but he has started with five points (1 G, 4 A) in four games this season for the Wild and, crucially, is quarterbacking Minnesota’s first power play unit.

#5 He has yet to score a goal through four games, but the rest of his numbers are very encouraging for Detroit Red Wings winger Alex DeBrincat. He has generated 32 shot attempts and 15 shots on goal to go along with six assists in four games. That shot rate of 3.75 per game would be the highest rate of his career, despite fewer than half of his attempts making it on net. Prior to this season, he had hit the net on 54.3 percent of his shot attempts, so he is only down a little in this small sample, but he is putting up eight shot attempts per game and his previous career high during a full season was just under 5.9 shot attempts per game, so the opportunities are there and it’s fair to expect the goals to follow.

#6 As noted above, Chris Kreider is spending most of his time skating on Leo Carlsson’s wing in Anaheim, and he’s getting results early with five points (4 G, 1 A) and 12 shots on goal in four games. In all of his seasons with the Rangers, Kreider managed to average three shots on goal per game just twice and those were the 2021-2022 and 2023-2024 seasons, when he scored 52 and 39 goals, respectively, the two best goal-scoring seasons of his career. If playing with Carlsson helps keep Kreider’s shot rate at this level, he could be primed for a bounce-back season with the Ducks.

#7 It’s not as though fantasy managers will be unaware of Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas who broke through with 30 goals and 66 points last season, but one of the concerns about his production was that he was very dependent on percentages, scoring on 21.1 percent of his shots, and a lofty 14.3 on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five. He is still getting those high percentages on his way to five points (3 G, 2 A) in Washington’s first four games, but he also has 13 shots on goal and is playing 18:55 per game, both of which are notably higher than last season when he averaged fewer than two shots on goal per game and played 16:27 per game.

#8 It’s easy enough to get underrated when playing for the Chicago Blackhawks, given the state of the team these days, but veteran winger Teuvo Teravainen is off to a nice start with six points (1 G, 5 A) in five games, though he has managed just three shots on goal. He’s more playmaker than shooter, but that total is still low. Nevertheless, Teravainen does seem to have a good thing going early in the year on a line with Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his production.

#9 A couple of power play assists early helped to jumpstart Pavel Zacha’s season for the Boston Bruins. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in five games while skating on a line with Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson at even strength, but Zacha is on Boston’s top power play unit and the opportunity to share the ice with David Pastrnak is a critical factor to point production for any Bruins skaters, it seems. Zacha is not a volume shooter, having never recorded even 150 shots on goal in a season, but four shots on goal in five games this season is still rather low.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann is one of the more established goal scorers on the roster and is off to a nice start with four points (3 G, 1 A) in four games this season. Skating on Seattle’s top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle, McCann has recorded 14 shots on goal and 28 shot attempts, both of which represent higher per-game rates (3.5 shots, 7.0 shot attempts) than he has been able to sustain in his career, so even if McCann isn’t going to keep scoring on a pace of 60-plus goals, he is getting the underlying numbers that will support strong offensive production.

#11 Seeking a fresh start in Philadelphia with John Tortorella no longer behind the bench, veteran Flyers centre Sean Couturier has seen his ice time jump by a couple of minutes per game compared to last season and he has five points (2 G, 3 A) with six shots on goal through four games. He has been on the wrong end of the shot counts early, with a 41.4 percent Corsi, but shot quality has played in Couturier’s favor with a 51.1 percent expected goals percentage during five-on-five play. Couturier last topped 50 points in a season back in 2019-2020, but he’s skating with Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov on Philadelphia’s top line, so he ought to have a chance to get there this season.

#12 When the Nashville Predators collapsed last season, some of their high-profile free agent signings ended up with lacklustre production. For example, Jonathan Marchessault went from 42 goals in Vegas in 2023-2024 to 21 goals for Nashville last season. Early this season, Marchessault has four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games, but his 15 shots on goal and 26 shot attempts move closer to the years of his best production in Vegas, so maybe that’s a positive sign for Nashville as a team and Marchessault when it comes to his individual production.

#13 With four goals in four games, it would be very easy to get excited about St. Louis Blues left winger Jake Neighbours. He has moved up to the top line, with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, so that’s encouraging, too, but Neighbours’ ice time is down nearly a minute-and-a-half per game from last season, and he has just six shots on goal in four games. If he’s going to stick with Thomas and Buchnevich, that is probably reason enough to be optimistic but be a little bit wary of his underlying performance.

#14 Coming off of a 41-point season, with his lowest points per game since 2016-2017, Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly was a bit of a buy-low option coming into the season. He also had some upside because, with Mitch Marner leaving for Vegas, there was room for Rielly to quarterback Toronto’s No. 1 power play unit again. Thus far, Rielly has delivered, putting up five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games. Rielly has only surpassed 200 shots in a season twice in his career, so that shot rate is very encouraging.

#15 A bargain acquisition in the offseason from the Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators defenceman Jordan Spence has been excellent in the early going for the Senators. He has contributed four assists and seven shots on goal in three games and while he is averaging 18:30 of ice time per game, Spence is also dominating his five-on-five minutes, with a Corsi percentage of 67.6 percent and an expected goals percentage of 78.2 percent. It’s not going to be easy to get power play time with Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot ahead of him on the depth chart, so maybe that limits Spence’s upside, but he is worth keeping tabs on.

#16 With the New York Rangers losing centre Vincent Trocheck to an upper-body injury that will keep him out a month, Mika Zibanejad has moved back into the middle of the ice for the Blueshirts. That has created an opening on the right wing in New York’s top six, and veteran winger Conor Sheary is getting a look in that role. He only has one assist and eight shots on goal in six games, but his ice time has gone up, and he has averaged 17:57 time on ice per game in his past two contests. It’s not enough to warrant picking up Sheary, but worth seeing if he can make the most of his opportunity.

#17 The Rangers have had huge problems scoring early in the season, managing just 11 goals through six games. Zibanejad has one goal on 24 shots, Alexis Lafreniere has one goal on 21 shots and Will Cuylle has one goal on 17 shots. These are players skating in top six roles. Add in Artemi Panarin with zero goals on 13 shots and J.T. Miller with one goal in 10 shots, and the most encouraging aspect for the Rangers is that these guys can’t all keep shooting at such low percentages. Eventually, the dam will break and pucks will start to go in the net, so maybe the Rangers offer some buy-low opportunities right now.

#18 Some players have just been snakebit early. Here are the players with the highest individual expected goals total in all situations that have yet to score. Number one is Connor McDavid with 2.29 ixG, followed by David Tomasek (2.09), Alex DeBrincat (2.04), Connor McMichael (1.96), and Nick Suzuki (1.94). The takeaway for any of them is that they are due to start scoring. As any slumping goal-scorer will tell you, they worry more when they aren’t getting the chances and these players are getting chances.

#19 At the other end of the spectrum, Toronto Maple Leafs winger Calle Jarnkrok has scored three goals despite recording just 0.5 individual expected goals, suggesting that he may not continue at his current goal-scoring pace. He is averaging 11:08 of ice time per game and has eight shots on goal, so expectations would be understandably modest, but those goals are not necessarily the product of lots of great opportunities.

#20 With Mackenzie Blackwood recovering from injury, Scott Wedgewood has been excellent in goal for the Avalanche, earning 4.71 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in four starts. Other goalies excelling early: Igor Shesterkin (7.20 GSAx), Thatcher Demko (5.38 GSAx), and Spencer Knight (3.74 GSAx). On the other hand, Linus Ullmark (-4.09 GSAx), Dustin Wolf (-4.04 GSAx), Alex Nedeljkovic (-3.65 GSAx), Adin Hill (-3.05 GSAx), and Samuel Montembeault (-2.81 GSAx) are goalies that have started multiple games and have allowed the most goals relative to expectations. It is very early, but good to have this information when evaluating goalie options.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 17:20:41 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks Defenceman Jackson LaCombe (60) warms up before a game between the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings on February 24, 2024 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

It was an unexpected rise out of the depths of the Pacific Division last season as they improved to 80 points in 2024-2025 up from 59 in 2023-2024. Their overall improvement got them into the race for the wild card for the first time in years, yet ultimately still led to the dismissal of coach Greg Cronin. Now with the controversial hiring of Joel Quenneville behind the bench, expectations are much higher. If they’re going to be serious about making the playoffs, their special teams must improve. The Ducks had the league’s worst power play (11.8 percent) and the 29th ranked penalty kill (74.2 percent), but with the talent they have that can change quickly.

What’s Changed?

Despite the improvements, there’s a lot of change in Anaheim. Along with Quenneville taking over as coach, years of trade rumours finally proved out with goalie John Gibson going to Detroit for Petr Mrazek and forward Trevor Zegras off to Philadelphia for Ryan Poehling. The Ducks also added veteran forward Chris Kreider from the New York Rangers for prospect Carey Terrance and signed free agent Mikael Granlund to a three-year, $21 million contract. That kind of infusion of veteran talent signals the rebuild is officially over in Anaheim and that reaching the postseason is the goal.

What Would Success Look Like?

The Ducks haven’t been to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2018 and after picking in the top 10 of the NHL Draft for the past few years, drafting and developing young talent, reaching the postseason, or at the very least being in the hunt until the end of the season, is the goal. The Western Conference is difficult, but there are inroads to be made. While Anaheim’s forward group was made to be more battle-tested and experienced, their defence is highly talented but still young. If the growth seen from Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, and Drew Helleson continue and goalie Lukas Dostal picks up where he left off last season, they can be one of the more entertaining and frustrating teams to play against.

What Could Go Wrong?

The catch with adding veteran players is that sometimes they’re closer to the end of the road than they’re perceived to be. If Kreider’s downturn in production last season was a signal and not a blip and Granlund can’t have the same success he had with San Jose and Dallas, it’ll make things a lot more difficult up front. Their young defence corps and goaltender are going to have a lot of pressure on them right away and if the weight of expectations is too heavy, that could send the Ducks back to the lottery yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Cutter Gauthier’s rookie season saw him put up 20 goals and 24 assists and that was enough to put him on the NHL All-Rookie Team. You could say that it's a breakout on its own, but when you’re taken with the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, expectations are set a fair bit higher, especially after being acquired in a trade. With a full season under his belt, Gauthier getting to learn some tricks of the trade from Kreider and having the green light to go from the new coaching staff, that could lead to a monster season and more reasons for Flyers fans to grump about losing him.

FORWARDS

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	19	31	50	0.64

A consistent performer who has recorded more than 20 goals and 50 points in each of the past four seasons, Terry erupted for 37 goals in 2021-2022, but that appears to have been an aberration because he scored on 19.2 percent of his shots that season and more typically hovers in the 11-12 percent range. Terry plays a solid two-way game, though he is more effective offensively, and his reliability makes him valuable on a team with promising young talent still trying to find its way. Last season, Terry’s most common linemates were Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano, so that is obviously a veteran trio, but Terry has the skill to play on Anaheim’s top line and it’s getting to the point that he could be alongside their younger forwards. Terry is a competitive enough player but does not play a physical game. In the past four seasons, he has recorded a total of 42 hits, which is a shockingly low total, ranking 245th out of 246 forwards to appear in at least 250 games over that span. One of Terry’s strongest traits is his confidence with the puck which allows him to make creative plays to generate scoring chances, particularly when controlling play in the offensive zone. There is potential for Terry to break through offensively, but the most reasonable expectation would be for 20-plus goals and 55-60 points.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	38	64	0.78

After hitting career highs with 22 goals and 52 points in 2024-2025, McTavish is a promising young player who can be a leader in Anaheim’s attack. He was the third pick in the 2021 Draft and is a physically strong player who can win board battles and create space in the offensive zone. He has a strong skating stride that helps him move through the neutral zone in transition. McTavish is still early in his career and like many of his young teammates has room to improve without the puck. Even though the Ducks outscored opponents 52-43 during five-on-five play with McTavish on the ice last season, a lot of that was due to favorable percentages – an 11.1 percent on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage of .924 – because the Ducks only controlled 45.3 percent of shot attempts and 45.9 percent of expected goals with McTavish on the ice. His most common linemates last season were Cutter Gauthier and Robby Fabbri but, as the Ducks roster improves, there could be a chance for McTavish to get a bit of an upgrade on the wings. He also plays on the power play, where he can launch one-timers from the right face-off circle. All of this is to suggest that McTavish should continue his offensive development in 2025-2026 and should be expected to surpass 20 goals and 50 points but he is in the age bracket in which he could have a breakout season and take those totals to a new level.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	37	61	0.77

A two-way center with great potential, Carlsson was the second pick in the 2023 Draft and has made steady progress in his first two seasons. He elevated his play in the second half of last season, putting up 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in his last 31 games. He is still young, and his game is evolving, but Carlsson’s size, strong skating, and quality defensive play give him a strong foundation upon which to build his game and if he can become a point-per-game player at some point, then he will be an extremely valuable player. His soft hands and growing confidence should make Carlsson the focal point of the Ducks attack but, this early in his career, he has room to improve. For instance, he has won 38.5 percent of his faceoffs through his first two seasons and while that improved from 34.8 percent as a rookie to 41.4 percent last season, he needs to be much more effective on the dot. That improvement should come, however. Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier started to find their footing alongside Alex Killorn last season and progress should continue in 2025-2026. Carlsson should be expected to score 20-plus goals and 50 points but, like Gauthier, it’s possible that Carlsson breaks through for even more in his third NHL season.

Chris Kreider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	19	17	36	0.47

Following the three most productive goal-scoring campaigns of his career, Kreider’s production fell off in 2024-2025. He still scored more than 20 goals for the seventh straight season and 10th time in his career, but he also did not record an assist until his 22nd game of the season and finished with just eight helpers. Kreider missed 14 games, and his ice time was down to 16:45 per game, his lowest since 2017-2018. While there had been rumours that the Rangers were looking to move Kreider last summer, they were certainly ready to move on from him this offseason, and he was a decent buy-low option for Anaheim. Even if his production slipped last season, and he was a poor puck possession player for essentially the first time in his career, Kreider is still a big strong winger who can skate and use his body as an effective net-front presence on the power play. Fantasy managers will note that Kreider managed 79 hits last season, his lowest since recording 36 hits in 23 games when he first joined the Rangers in 2012-2013. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Kreider can deliver more than he did last season in New York, but he’s also a 34-year-old winger who has played a physical game throughout his career, so there is a ceiling to what should be expected of him. He could score 25 goals and 45 points, which would be a valuable contribution to a Ducks squad that is hoping to be more competitive this season.

Mikael Granlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	17	39	56	0.74

Although Granlund’s underlying numbers were nothing to write home about in a 2024-2025 season that he split between the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars, he also finished the season with 66 points (22 G, 44 A), his highest total since 2017-2018. Last season was decidedly different for Granlund based on which team he was skating with. When he was on the Sharks, he played more than 20 minutes per game and was a top line point producer and first unit power play fixture. After his trade to Dallas, Granlund was still a contributor, but his ice time dropped by more than three minutes per game and he was not a prime power play threat. With Anaheim, Granlund should have the opportunity to again play a significant role, and he has the ability to play center and wing, which will give the Ducks some flexibility when it comes to setting their lines. Granlund’s defensive play is not his strong suit but with the puck on his stick he is a creative player with excellent vision and that should allow him to facilitate offense for his linemates. With the expectation that Granlund is not likely to play as much in Anaheim as he did in San Jose last season, it is probably more reasonable to expect 50-55 points from the veteran forward.

Cutter Gauthier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	33	27	60	0.73

It took some time for Gauthier to get going in his rookie season, not finding the net until his 16th game, but he turned into a bona fide threat down the stretch, tallying 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 77 shots on goal in 28 games after the Four Nations Face-Off break. He finished with 15 goals during 5-on-5 play to lead the Ducks. Gauthier has good size, which he uses to effectively protect the puck, and he is excellent in transition, with a strong stride and quick release when bursting down the left wing. In his first season, Gauthier’s most common linemates were Mason McTavish and Robby Fabbri, but he found more success skating with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn. For all of his promise Gauthier is still a young player and there is naturally room for him to improve as he grows into the pro game. He can be more consistent without the puck, and it’s possible – maybe even expected – that he will have a more significant role on the power play in his second season. He should play more than the 14:09 per game that he did as a rookie and that would provide him with the opportunity to generate more offense, so 25 goals and 50 points in a fair starting point, but he does have potential to score more than that.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	19	37	0.45

A veteran winger who has been a consistent shot generator throughout his career, Vatrano busted out for a career-high 37 goals during the 2023-2024 season and has recorded more than 18 goals in six of his past seven seasons. He has a quick release and is both quick and efficient at putting shots on goal from a variety of spots. The sturdy skater recorded a career-high 169 hits last season and has played a more prominent role in Anaheim compared to previous stops with the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, and Boston Bruins. Although he has proven to be a solid complementary scorer, the unfortunate part is that Vatrano is not very effective defensively and the Ducks have been outscored 179-131 during five-on-five play across the past three seasons with Vatrano on the ice. Vatrano plays primarily with Ryan Strome and Troy Terry, a veteran trio on this young squad. Despite his flaws, considering his prominent role, Vatrano does hold appeal for fantasy managers because his combination of goal-scoring, shot generation, and hits tends to make him relatively useful. His power play role was reduced last season, and it seems likely that he will remain in a secondary offensive role on this team, but he should be able to produce at least 20 goals and 45 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	8	27	35	0.46

Having just completed his third straight 41-point season, Strome also scored just 10 goals, his fewest since the 2015-2016 season. He plays center but can slide to right wing if need be, and his experience and talent allow him to move up and down the lineup depending on what the Ducks need. Like many Ducks, he could stand to improve his defensive play, but after three seasons in Anaheim, during which they have been outscored 174-133 during five-on-five play with Strome on the ice, that is not the most likely scenario. He also struggled on the power play, so the value proposition for the Ducks may be to improve their team depth so that they don’t need to lean on Strome quite so much. He took more than 1,200 faceoffs last season, winning just 41.7 percent, which is a shockingly poor percentage for someone who takes that many draws. There were 53 players who took at least 1,000 draws last season and Strome ranked 52nd in faceoff winning percentage. That should be at least part of the reason that he might spend more time on the wing, depending on who else is available to fill those minutes down the middle of the ice. Considering that he has landed on exactly 41 points for three consecutive seasons, that’s a pretty fair expectation for Strome’s production in the 2025-2026 season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	22	40	0.49

A consistent and hard-working veteran winger, Killorn has been a strong secondary scorer for a long time, first in Tampa Bay and now Anaheim, but last season’s 37 points in 82 games represented the second lowest points per game rate (0.45) of his career. That is not to say that Killorn’s game has dramatically dropped off, because it hasn’t, but he was 35 years old last season and anyone whose age climbs beyond that is obviously getting closer to the end of their career. Nevertheless, Killorn was the only Ducks forward to finish above 50 percent in terms of Corsi and expected goals and his steady two-way play was undeniably helpful to a team still trying to find its way. Killorn remains an excellent penalty killer and ranked second among Ducks forwards in time on ice during four-on-five situations. While he ranked sixth among Ducks forwards in five-on-four ice time, Killorn was not nearly as effective with the man advantage. Among 10 Ducks players to play at least 100 minutes at five-on-four, Killorn ranked last in on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes and ninth in on-ice goals for per 60 minutes. It would come as no surprise if Ducks newcomers like Chris Kreider or Mikael Granlund see more power play time and that aspect of the game gets reduced for Killorn. Even so, given his consistency and ability to drive play, there is a path to Killorn putting up close to 20 goals and 40 points in 2025-2026.

DEFENSE

Jackson LaCombe

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	33	45	0.56

One of last season’s breakout stars, LaCombe was a second-round pick in 2019, and he turned into a No. 1 defenceman in his second NHL season. Lacombe shows outstanding poise with the puck, both retrieving it in the defensive zone and running the point on the Ducks’ power play. It’s not like LaCombe was gifted a prominent role on the Anaheim blueline last season, so it took some time before he hit his stride. From December 1 through April 1, however, LaCombe contributed 39 points (12 G, 27 A) in 51 games before going scoreless in his last eight games of the season. He is excellent at getting pucks on net from the point, especially on the power play. Out of 55 defencemen that played at least 100 five-on-four minutes, LaCombe ranked sixth with 11.11 shots on goal per 60 minutes. LaCombe’s emergence ought to ease the pressure on the other young defenders in Anaheim because his production already makes him a worthy No. 1 option on the blueline and the rest can continue to develop without feeling that pressure. From LaCombe’s perspective, it will be up to him to prove that his breakthrough season wasn’t a fluke, that he is capable of playing big minutes and generating offense for an improving Ducks squad. It may be optimistic to expect LaCombe to score on more than 10 percent of his shots again, but he should at least be able to put up 40 points and, like many of his young teammates, there is certainly a chance that he goes above and beyond.

Olen Zellweger

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	19	28	0.36

An undersized puck-moving blueliner, Zellweger established his place as an NHL regular last season and while there is naturally room for improvement, he showed plenty of potential in his age 21 season. Zellweger has excellent agility which serves him well in the offensive zone, allowing him to move along the blueline and generate offensive opportunities. He has been wildly productive in previous stops. In his last two WHL seasons, he put up 158 points (46 G, 112 A) in 110 games, capped off by 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in 14 playoff games during his final season. He then contributed 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 games as an AHL rookie in 2023-2024. While Zellweger has delivered just 29 points in 88 NHL games thus far, his pedigree is such that he has untapped offensive potential, and it is going to be dependent on his role and the quality of the team around him to determine if he is going to be an offensive threat at this level. He did lead Ducks defenders in shot attempts per 60 minutes and shots on goal per 60 minutes last season, so he’s not afraid to send pucks to the opposing net. While he does have potential to turn into a strong point producer, Zellweger is still quite young and more likely to fill a supporting role on the Ducks blueline, so he may contribute 25-30 points next season and like many Ducks, he is young enough that there is potential for more under the right circumstances. His name has popped up in trade rumours this summer, so that could affect his deployment if he lands with a new team.

Jacob Trouba

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	3	16	19	0.25

After spending much of last summer shopping Trouba around the league and practically blaming him for the Rangers getting ousted from the 2024 playoffs, only to have Trouba exercise his no-move clause, the Rangers finally got what they wanted when they traded Trouba to Anaheim in December. He did not thrive under those circumstances, and it’s fair to wonder if a hard-hitting defenceman like Trouba was maybe a little less invested in playing for a team with little hope of making the playoffs. He ended up averaging a career-low 20:31 of ice time per game and did record a career-high 208 blocked shots, though his 164 hits in 77 games counted as his lowest hits-per-game average since 2018-2019, his last season in Winnipeg. It’s also fair to wonder if Trouba’s physical style of play is starting to take its toll, as his possession numbers have slipped in the past two seasons and now that he’s 31, it could be more difficult for him to get back on top of those numbers. At his best, Trouba is a solid puck mover who is one of the most feared hitters in the league. He’s a legitimately punishing physical presence and should have a better impact with the Ducks likely to be an improved team this season. He may contribute 25-30 points but will add hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes that should make him notably more valuable in banger-style leagues.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	1	13	14	0.18

The Ducks’ captain is a thundering hitter who has spent his entire career walking a fine line between what is and isn’t suspendable when it comes to hits. Part of the equation is that he just has such a high volume of hits that he has more opportunity to deliver objectionable checks. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Gudas has recorded 1,160 hits, tops in the NHL. That is 67 hits ahead of Luke Schenn and Schenn is the only other defenceman within 175 hits of Gudas’ total. Having acknowledged his questionable hitting history, it should be noted, loudly, that Gudas is a very effective player and his borderline hitting practices should not take away from that legitimate on-ice success. Across his past seven seasons, with four different franchises, Gudas has been on the ice for 41 more goals for than against during five-on-five play, which is remarkable for a defender who does not generate a lot of offense and tends to start more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Gudas played a career-high 19:52 per game last season and that’s probably around the high end of how much he should play. A quirk to his game is that Gudas is also uninhibited when it comes to launching shots from the blueline. There are 184 defencemen that have played at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons and Gudas ranks 47th with 11.75 shot attempts per 60 minutes over that span, just behind Mikhail Sergachev and ahead of the likes of Devon Toews, Luke Hughes, and Jake Sanderson. Despite his eagerness to shoot the puck, Gudas should only be expected to contribute 15-20 points, but he should also put up 250-plus hits 150-plus blocked shots and more than 80 penalty minutes, so he doesn’t help offensively, but the peripheral categories are where he shines for fantasy managers.

GOAL

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
53	26	19	6	3	.905	2.78

For the first time since 2013, the Anaheim Ducks will start their season without John Gibson factoring into their goaltending plans for the upcoming year. It feels like a breath of fresh air for both parties, but perhaps for none more than for newly minted star starter Lukas Dostal. The Czech-born goaltender has officially been given Anaheim's vote of confidence this summer, as they brought in a veteran backup in Petr Mrazek and a reclamation project in Ville Husso as the only really challengers to his gig heading into the 2025-26 campaign.

The move doesn't come unwarranted, of course. Dostal has been proving for the last handful of seasons that his particular brand of competency, which combined the positional acuity of Gibson before him with an extra little flash of speed and skating prowess, is more than enough to pull Anaheim out of their free-fall into rebuild territory. The Southern California former powerhouse finished just two games shy of hitting .500 on the season, pulling themselves up from the bottom two in their division for the first time since before the pandemic. That was due largely to Dostal, who finished with above-league average goals saved metrics on a tough team despite shouldering his first real starting workload. With Calle Clang eagerly waiting in the wings, Anaheim would be smart to control Dostal's starts, keeping him to just over half the games played for the year when they're clearly not ready to contend. But for a team that's been scrambling in net this long, that might feel hard to do - so it will be hard to blame Anaheim if they get excited and ride Dostal's performances to a position where, while still unlikely to contend for the cup, the Ducks could at the very least make life difficult for the others in the Wild Card race.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Are the New York Rangers really this bad? – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 13:30:15 +0000

_{NEW YORK, NY - MAY 30: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers prior to the National Hockey League Eastern Conference Final game 5 against the Florida Panthers on May 30, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)}

Are the New York Rangers really this bad or just stuck in an absurdly long slump? Or is there a third possibility?

The common narrative seems to put the blame on Rangers president and GM Chris Drury, who some speculate has created a rift between management and the players that's having a significant impact on the ice. Vincent Z. Mercogliano of Lohud reported that some on the team have taken issue with Drury's methods, from waiving Barclay Goodrow to get around his no-trade clause to threatening to do the same to captain Jacob Trouba if he didn't sign off on a trade to Anaheim, to Drury reportedly issuing a memo that the Rangers were open for business on the trade front following a loss to Edmonton, despite team still being a strong 12-6-1 at that time.

Then there was the incident with Kaapo Kakko. Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to scratch him for Tuesday's tilt against Nashville after New York lost 10 of 13, dropping to 15-14-1. However, Kakko took exception to that, feeling he was getting unfairly singled out.

"I know you've got to do something as a coach when you're losing games, but I think it's just easy to pick a young guy and boot him out. That's how I feel, to be honest," Kakko said, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post. He added, "I have not been the worst guy. But that was me out of the lineup."

The Rangers ended up losing 2-0 to Nashville. The next day, Kakko was dealt to Seattle. Even if Kakko never really developed as the Rangers hoped when they selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, that whole saga this week was another distraction that the team could ill afford.

But is this really as simple as mismanagement leading to the group failing to play up to its potential or is there a deeper problem? On the surface, the answer seems obvious. The Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024 and started the campaign 12-4-1. How could this not be a team capable of contending?

There are some areas of concern, though. Chris Kreider's success has been driven by his ability to score goals, but he might be slowing in that regard at the age of 33. He has 10 markers in 28 appearances in 2024-25, which would be considered good for other players, but he doesn't bring a lot else to the table -- he has just one assist -- so that's worrying.

Mika Zibanejad has seen his production dip too. He has six goals and 21 points through 31 outings and is in a four-way tie for the fourth-worst plus/minus at minus-17. Plus/minus isn't the best metric, but he also has a relative 5v5 CF% and 5v5 FF% of minus-6.7 and minus-5.8, respectively, which suggests that his team is doing better in terms of puck possession when he's off the ice compared to when he's on it. He also has a 5v5 CF%/FF% of 44.0/44.2, which would represent career lows for him.

To some extent, this reminds me a little of what happened to the San Jose Sharks. They were a perennial contender through the 2018-19 campaign. They reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and the Western Conference Final in 2019. San Jose was far from resting on its laurels either. Still searching for that elusive championship, San Jose acquired elite defenseman Erik Karlsson in September 2018 and locked him up to an eight-year, $92 million contract in the summer of 2019.

The stage seemed to be set for the Sharks to be Cup contenders in 2019-20. Sure, Joe Pavelski was gone, but the forward group of Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl was still fairly young. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau were there as the veteran presences, and the duo of Karlsson and Brent Burns was one of the best on paper. Not only did San Jose fail to make the playoffs that year, but the Sharks haven't made it since. In retrospect, they misjudged their core and got caught in an awkward position of needing to rebuild but being slow to do so due to their already established long-term contracts.

It might be overly dramatic to suggest that the Rangers are a repeat of that, but a slump this long and dramatic is unusual and hard to dismiss.

Igor Shesterkin just has to hope that the Sharks comparison proves to be invalid. In that scenario, he'd be the Karlsson: A player who made a major commitment to a team he thought was going to be a contender, only to see some of his prime years squandered. Shesterkin recently agreed to his own eight-year, $92 million contract that doesn't even begin until next year. Maybe he'll end up having better luck with the team around him than Karlsson…

Boston Bruins (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The upcoming week will be relatively light because the NHL will not play Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday due to its Christmas break. That said, there are still teams worth highlighting, starting with the Bruins, who begin the week with a difficult home game against Washington on Monday but will then face the rebuilding Blue Jackets on the road Friday and then in Boston on Saturday.

The Bruins' rough start to the campaign is largely behind them. From Nov. 21 onward, the Bruins have a 9-4-1 record to put them at 17-13-4 overall. The single biggest difference is that Boston has given up far fewer goals, going from an average of 3.45 goals allowed over its 8-9-3 start to 2.71 across its past 15 games.

Jeremy Swayman has been a benefactor of that, posting a 2.68 GAA over that 15-game span (he's appeared in 10 of those contests) while earning a 6-3-1 record. However, Swayman's save percentage during that stretch is a less impressive .892. It's worth noting that span includes a rough 8-1 loss to Winnipeg in which Swayman was charged with every goal. If you exclude that one start, then his save percentage during that span jumps to .912.

Boston's offense has also improved over the past 15 games, though it's still not special, earning 2.86 goals per game over that stretch compared to 2.40 during the first 20 games. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie have provided some key secondary scoring recently, totaling nine and eight points, respectively, across Boston's last 15 outings. Neither one has been particularly consistent, though, and their production is only impressive when measured against their dreadful starts to the campaign.

Meanwhile, Elias Lindholm continues to underwhelm with five goals and 17 points through 34 appearances. However, he is on a three-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), so perhaps he'll be effective in the upcoming week.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs. DAL, Thu @ MIN, FRI vs. PIT, Sun vs. STL)

I started this article by highlighting the Rangers for their struggles, but Buffalo has been even worse. Going into Friday's action, the Sabres have lost 11 straight games, dropping to 11-17-4. Rather than showing signs of turning things around, they suffered a 6-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday.

The Sabres won't face particularly stiff competition next week, though, so perhaps they can stabilize. They'll play on the road against the Islanders on Monday, host Chicago on Friday and conclude the week in St. Louis on Sunday.

Finding a diamond in the rough on a team doing that poorly is difficult. Jason Zucker is about as close as you'll come. He has eight goals and 21 points through 32 appearances, making this a nice bounce-back campaign for him after he finished 2023-24 with 32 points in 69 regular-season games between Arizona and Nashville. It helps that he's averaging 2:53 with the man advantage, which would be a career-high if he maintains that. Zucker has seven power-play points (three goals), which puts him on track to easily surpass his 2023-24 total of 10 and potentially even best his personal best of 16, which was set in 2017-18.

Outside of that, though, there isn't much to like. Rasmus Dahlin (back) is set to return on Friday, which should be a significant boost for Buffalo. The Sabres' losing streak predates Dahlin's seven-game absence, but it's still reasonable to say that Dahlin plays an important role for Buffalo and that his exclusion from the lineup was felt. He has six goals and 19 points in 25 appearances in 2024-25 while averaging 24:42 of ice time, including 3:23 with the man advantage.

Owen Power has been seeing significant power-play usage recently, but with Dahlin back, Power might be absent from the power play entirely for Friday's game. For other defensemen, that would be a big blow, but Power has failed to take advantage of that role -- he hasn't recorded a single power-play point in 2024-25 -- so it shouldn't change much for those who have Power on their team.

Dallas Stars (Mon @ BUF, Thu vs. VGK, FRI vs. TBL, Sun vs. MIN)

Dallas is set to play in Utah on Monday, host the Wild on Friday and play in Chicago on Sunday. It's not a bad schedule, but under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be good enough to highlight. Still, it's nice to have an opportunity to talk about Dallas, which has done well this campaign with a 19-12-0 record heading into Friday's action.

The Stars are also in an interesting spot right now. Matt Duchene is their scoring leader with 30 points (13 goals) in 31 appearances, but his hot start has come to an end with him recording just a goal and three points across his past nine outings. Duchene's cold stretch probably isn't the new normal, but it's equally fair to suggest that he overperformed early in the campaign. His shooting percentage, which remains an uncomfortably high 26.0, suggests that there might still be more backsliding to come. He might ultimately finish the campaign with 60-70 points, which would be in line with his 2023-24 results and would represent a mild, but not dramatic, scoring decline from his overall scoring pace this campaign.

Fortunately for Dallas, Duchene's decline has corresponded with Jason Robertson showing signs of life. The 25-year-old forward's overall numbers this campaign remain well below what you'd expect from him (seven goals and 21 points in 31 games), but he has collected two goals and six points over his past five appearances.

Jamie Benn has also been solid, recording an assist in each of his past six outings and contributing two goals and nine points across his last 10 games. His 20 points through 31 appearances in 2024-25 still put him on pace to finish below his 60-point regular-season total from 2023-24, but it still wouldn't be shocking to see him end up hitting that mark by the end of the campaign.

Minnesota Wild (Mon vs. TBL, Thu vs. BUF, FRI @ VGK, Sun vs. DAL)

The Wild will begin next week by hosting the Blackhawks before playing in Dallas on Friday and finally returning home to face the Senators on Sunday. Dallas, as discussed above, is a tough opponent, but Chicago is a rebuilding squad, and the Senators are a middling 7-7-1 on the road.

The big question out of Minnesota is the health of Filip Gustavsson. At the time of writing, he's out with a lower-body injury, but his status appears to be day-to-day, so it's possible he'll be back next week. Gustavsson has been a key part of Minnesota's success with a 14-5-3 record, 2.24 GAA and .922 save percentage in 22 appearances.

Marc-Andre Fleury has been mostly okay this campaign, but the 40-year-old netminder is coming off a rough 6-1 loss to Florida on Wednesday, which dropped him to a 2.88 GAA and a .898 save percentage through 10 outings this season. The current alternative to him is Jesper Wallstedt, who stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Dec. 15. To be fair to both goaltenders, Florida and Vegas are some of the toughest competition they could have possibly faced.

Still, it seems reasonable that they'll need a meaningful amount of goal support going forward. Fortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to play like Kirill Kaprizov. The elite forward has nine goals and 14 points over his past 11 appearances, which gives him 22 goals and 48 points in 31 outings overall. Mats Zuccarello also returned Dec. 14 from a lower-body injury and has gotten back to work with three assists over three outings.

Zuccarello's return also means Matt Boldy has shifted to the second line. Boldy has an impressive 13 goals and 30 points in 32 contests in 2024-25, but Kaprizov has been involved in 18 of those points. They are still sharing the ice on the power play, but if they don't skate together regularly in 5-on-5 situations, then Boldy might see a modest decline in production.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon @ STL, Thu vs. VGK, FRI @ BUF, Sun @ TBL)

Pittsburgh seemed doomed to miss the playoffs again based on its 7-12-4 start, but the Penguins have rebounded by going 8-2-1 since. Can they keep it up next week? They'll host the Flyers on Monday before a back-to-back set against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday. Pittsburgh will be on the road for the first half of that set and then play at home.

So who is responsible for Pittsburgh's comeback? Is it Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin? Actually, it's Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.

That's not to take anything away from Crosby, who has nine goals and 35 points in 34 outings in 2024-25, or Malkin, who has seven goals and 27 points. However, Crosby has been largely productive during the good times and bad while Malkin was actually doing better early in the campaign.

Their importance is clear, but what has really changed recently is Rust and Rakell providing far more than just secondary scoring. If I told you that a Penguins forward had nine goals and 17 points across the past 11 appearances without providing any other context, your first guess would likely be Malkin or Crosby, but that's what Rust has done. He was limited early in the campaign due to injury, but he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career lately.

Rakell has been nearly as good, supplying eight goals and 14 points across the same 11-game span. That brings him up to 15 goals and 26 points through 34 outings overall. His offensive struggles in 2023-24, dropping to 37 points from 60 points in 2022-23, were part of why the Penguins fell short of playoffs last year, so it seems appropriate that his resurgence is leading Pittsburgh back into postseason contention.

Not everything is rosy with the Penguins, though. Goaltending was the team's biggest issue early in the campaign and it remains a question mark. Tristan Jarry has a 3.62 GAA and a .883 save percentage through 14 outings and has surrendered at least three goals in three of his past four starts. Alex Nedeljkovic isn't giving the Penguins much of an alternative, though, with his own 3.26 GAA and .886 save percentage through 14 outings.

Pittsburgh does rank 28th in xGA/60 (3.30), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of the netminders deserves part of the blame. However, Nedeljkovic has a goals saved above expected of minus-6.0 while Jarry is at minus-6.5, so this seems to be a case of both a bad defense and poor goaltending. The result is Pittsburgh ranks last in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.68. For context, that's just outside of the top-10 worst of any team in the salary cap era (2005-06 and onward). Of the teams who have posted a goals allowed per game worse than Pittsburgh, none of them finished with a points percentage of .500 or better.

St. Louis Blues (Mon vs. PIT, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. TBL, Sun @ BUF)

The Blues will start next week with a game in Detroit on Monday, but after that, they'll return to St. Louis to host Nashville on Friday and Buffalo on Sunday. St. Louis has been a mixed bag in 2024-25, posting a 15-16-3 record going into Friday's action.

Jordan Binnington has left plenty to be desired this campaign with an 8-13-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .896 save percentage in 25 appearances. He's had some good stretches, but he's been inconsistent and is presently in a cold stretch after allowing at least three goals in six of his past seven games. His struggles have led to Joel Hofer becoming more of a 1B rather than a true backup, and Hofer might begin to migrate into being the 1A. The 24-year-old hasn't been stealing the show, but he has been the better option with a 7-3-0 record, 2.72 GAA and .907 save percentage through 11 appearances.

Of course, the Blues aren't alone in their goaltending woes. We just discussed a worse situation in Pittsburgh, but St. Louis doesn't have the offensive prowess to make up for it. The Blues rank 30th in goals per game with 2.50.

Robert Thomas has done well recently with four goals and 14 points across his past nine appearances while Jordan Kyrou has supplied seven goals and eight points over the same stretch, so the team isn't completely devoid of scoring, but it lacks depth and consistency.

Brandon Saad stands out as someone who has been disappointing when it comes to secondary scoring. After supplying 26 goals and 42 points in 82 outings last year, he has four markers and 10 points through 30 appearances in 2024-25. His decline has led to St. Louis using him less and less. He's even set to be a healthy scratch Friday. At this point, I don't have a lot of hope that he'll rebound, though he's not too old at 32, so anything is possible.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon @ MIN, Thu vs. PIT, FRI @ STL, Sun @ PIT)

Tampa Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and is 7-1-0 over its past eight to improve to 18-10-2 on the season. The Lightning will seek to keep that momentum going next week, when it plays in Florida on Monday and hosts the Rangers and the Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The Lightning deserve a lot of credit for moving on from Steven Stamkos and instead signing Jake Guentzel over the summer. While Stamkos has started to find his way with Nashville after a rocky start, Guentzel is four years younger and has proven to be a great fit.

Guentzel enjoyed an incredible seven-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 30-Dec. 17 and now has 18 markers and 33 points across 30 appearances in 2024-25. The trio of Guentzel, Brayden Point (21 goals and 38 points in 26 outings) and Nikita Kucherov (14 goals and 35 points in 31 appearances) have been wildly successful. It would not be shocking if each of those three finished the campaign with over 40 goals and 80 points. That alone would make the Lightning a dangerous adversary, but they also have Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli excelling on the second line with 37 and 28 points, respectively.

One underrated aspect of this team is how well Tampa Bay has performed defensively. The Lightning ranked 18th in xGA/60 last campaign (3.14) but are sixth in 2024-25 (2.78). That's part of the reason why Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked so much better this campaign, posting a 2.38 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 25 appearances compared to his 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 51 regular-season games last year.

Tampa Bay could use a better backup, though. Jonas Johansson has a 3.84 GAA and .882 save percentage in six appearances, and the Lightning's lack of trust in him has led to Tampa Bay leaning heavily on Vasilevskiy. The 30-year-old Vasilevskiy is no stranger to heavy workloads, but I have to wonder if the Lightning won't look to add a goaltender at some point in the hopes of managing Vasilevskiy a bit ahead of what Tampa Bay doubtlessly hopes will be a lengthy playoff run.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs. SEA, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. MIN, Sun @ BOS)

The Golden Knights have a relatively favorable week ahead of them. They'll host the Ducks on Monday, play in San Jose on Friday and then return home to face the Flames on Sunday. Vegas is 21-8-3 and has been particularly dominant at home (12-3-0), though the Golden Knights should also be heavy favorites against the 11-19-5 Sharks, even if that is a road engagement.

Injuries have been a recurring issue for Vegas in recent years, and while they haven't been immune to them in 2024-25, it hasn't been as bad. Vegas has nine forwards, including Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Tomas Hertl, and four defensemen, namely Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb, who have logged at least 29 of 32 games. That doesn't make Vegas special from a health perspective, but it's certainly not bad.

Mark Stone is the main notable exception to that. He was so good early in the campaign with six goals and 21 points through 13 appearances, but he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of 14 games from Nov. 8-Dec. 4. Since returning, he's been fine, but the injury stopped his momentum, leaving him with four assists across his past five outings.

Eichel's been healthy, though, and on his way to having the best campaign of his career. He's up to nine goals and 42 points through 32 outings. Eichel's never recorded more than 82 points in a single campaign, in large part due to injuries. That's killed the whole Eichel versus Connor McDavid debate -- although Eichel is the one with a championship, there's no question who has been more impressive -- but not too much has separated them so far this campaign. McDavid is narrowly ahead with 15 goals and 45 points through 29 outings.

Another former Sabres forward has been even hotter than Eichel recently. Surprisingly, Victor Olofsson has provided four goals over his past four games. He had just seven goals and 15 points over 51 outings last year, and a lower-body injury that sidelined him from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 (a total of 20 games missed) has complicated his first campaign with Vegas. However, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this going now that he's healthy. Olofsson did score 28 goals in 2022-23 and has surpassed the 20-goal milestone three times, so there is some upside here, especially with Vegas currently using him on the second line and first power-play unit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK RANGERS – Team Preview

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:00:17 +0000

In Peter Laviolette’s first season behind the Rangers’ bench, he led the Blueshirts to a 114-point (55-23-4) season, earning the Presidents’ Trophy. The Rangers ranked 17th in Corsi (50.5%) and 20th in expected goals percentage (49.3%). That is hardly the recipe for leading the league in points, but that was the path that the Rangers traveled. The Rangers ranked fourth on the power play, with 10.12 goals per 60 minutes and third in penalty killing with 5.48 goals against per 60 minutes. That dominance on special teams made a massive difference, not only in the regular season, but in the second round of the playoffs as well, when the Rangers escaped with a series win over the Carolina Hurricanes. The next round was the end of the line for the Rangers though, as they dropped the Eastern Conference Final to the Florida Panthers in six games.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Rangers reportedly wanted to trade captain Jacob Trouba, but that could not be accomplished due to no-trade protection, so there is a lot of continuity from one season to the next. It is preferable for a Presidents’ Trophy team to keep most of the squad intact, but it seems that the Rangers have been steady. They dispatched Barclay Goodrow on waivers, where he was claimed by San Jose, and that created enough salary room for winger Reilly Smith, who was acquired from Pittsburgh. Trade deadline additions Alexander Wennberg and Jack Roslovic moved on in free agency, to San Jose and Carolina, respectively. Defenceman Erik Gustafsson signed in Detroit. The Rangers also added Sam Carrick, who had been toiling on fourth lines, adding some bite to the Rangers’ lineup.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? At this point, it is probably a Stanley Cup win if the Rangers are going to consider the season a success. They have lost the Eastern Conference Final in two of the past three seasons, so winning to get to the Cup Final would probably be counted as a win, too, and the Rangers have the kind of talent necessary to get there. That means that goaltender Igor Shesterkin Is again great. The defence corps is solid, sometimes even better than that, and if the Rangers are going to get over the hump to win another Cup, they will need Artemi Panarin to show up in addition to seeing others in the supporting cast – Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, Will Cuylle, and Matt Rempe – make contributions when the season is on the line.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? The Rangers have enough stars that an injury to one should not take this train off the tracks. Shesterkin, Panarin, and defenceman Adam Fox would seem to be the most irreplaceable, and Shesterkin figures to be the most fragile because as well as Jonathan Quick played last season, it would be risky to turn the crease over to the 38-year-old for any serious length of time. There is too much talent here for the Rangers to fall out of the playoff picture, but if they continue to hang around the middle of the pack when it comes to possession, then perhaps the Rangers could at least be forced to sweat their playoff position.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: A few of the Rangers’ younger players that might be considered for this honour – Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, K’Andre Miller – had breakout seasons in 2022-2023, so that narrows down the possibilities. Will Cuylle is a winger with good size who hits a lot and scored 13 goals and 21 points as a rookie. There is a chance for Cuylle to stick on the Rangers’ third line and that could give him enough of an opportunity to push for 20 goals.

Forwards

Artemi Panarin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	40	67	107	1.30

It is difficult to fathom that there is a downside to a winger who put up 120 points last season, but Panarin has taken heat for his performance when the Rangers have been eliminated from the playoffs in the past two seasons. He had four points in six games against Florida last season and two points in seven first-round games against New Jersey the season before. Panarin is a brilliant talent, a sublime playmaker who makes his teammates better, and he increased his shot output last season to 3.70 shots on goal per game on his way to scoring a career-high 49 goals. He has patience and creativity with the puck, but turned into an even more complete offensive threat when he started launching more pucks on net because he has always been a high-end shooter. Since joining the Rangers in 2019-2020, Panarin has produced 461 points in 350 games, which ranks fourth in the league in that time (behind Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Nathan MacKinnon). That kind of sustained excellence should hold more weight than any playoff slumps but that is also the kind of pressure that won’t go away until Panarin gets over that hump. For the 2024-2025 season, Panarin should be able to contribute 30-35 goals and 95-100 points in the regular season, but he will need to carry it over to the postseason to quiet his critics.

Vincent Trocheck

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	24	56	80	0.98

A tenacious centre who plays hard, with a physical edge and an agitator’s spirit, Trocheck played a career-high 21:27 per game last season and finished with a career-high 77 points. That included 24 points on the power play, his highest total since 2017-2018. He also won a career-high 58.7 percent of his faceoffs and had 175 hits, the third consecutive season that he has recorded at least that many hits, so Trocheck racks up contributions both big and small. That leads to Trocheck’s team generating more shot attempts than the opposition and that has been the case in 10 of his 11 NHL seasons. He is a valuable two-way centre who is capable defensively along with his strong offensive contributions. Even though he slumped late in the regular season, managing zero goals and two assists in the last eight games, Trocheck rose to the occasion in the postseason, tallying 20 points in 16 games. It is worth noting that Trocheck had just 17 points in 40 playoff games before breaking through last season. With a regular role on the Rangers’ top power play unit, Trocheck should be able to contribute 20-25 goals and 65 points in the 2024-2025 season. Coupled with his physical play, Trocheck is a valuable fantasy contributor, as a scoring centre who generates hits at a high level.

Alexis Lafreniere

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	31	29	60	0.73

After three seasons of modest production, the heat was starting to get turned up on Lafreniere, the first overall pick in the 2020 Draft. He broke through in 2023-2024 with 28 goals and 57 points, playing a career-high 17:16 per game. Lafreniere’s 51 even-strength points was tied for 37th in the league. As much as all of those numbers are positive indicators for Lafreniere, that production was also a function of his spending most of the season skating on the right wing with Panarin and Trocheck. When Lafreniere was on the ice with Panarin, the Rangers controlled 54.6 percent of expected goals. When Lafreniere was on with anyone else, the Rangers controlled 42.6 percent. Lafreniere does have strong offensive instincts and has high level puck skills. He is also comfortable banging bodies or taking a hit to make a play, so he can put himself in position to score. One area for further development is his skating: Lafreniere does have trouble pulling away from defenders. Considering the relative success that he enjoyed last season, it would make sense for the Rangers to keep him with Panarin and Trocheck, which is an excellent place for Lafreniere to continue his production. It’s possible that Lafreniere could match last season’s production, but the safer expectation would be in line with 25 goals and 50 points.

Chris Kreider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	34	29	63	0.79

One of the premier net-front players in the league, Kreider has developed into a premier goal-scorer in the league, especially on the power play. In the past three seasons, he has erupted for 127 goals, which ranks seventh in the NHL, and 52 of those goals have come via the power play, which ranks third. He is a big body presence who has quick hands and is exceptional at tipping pucks and corralling rebounds in traffic. Kreider is a strong skater with a powerful stride, which makes him difficult to contain when he builds up a head of steam. The puck tends to move in the right direction with Kreider on the ice and the Rangers have outscored the opposition at five-on-five in 10 of his past 11 seasons. The only exception was the 2020-2021 season when he had a career-low on-ice save percentage. Last season was the first full season of his career in which he finished with fewer than 100 hits, but he had 99, so it’s not like he has suddenly turned pacifist. Otherwise, Kreider consistently contributes to the Rangers’ success and that should continue in 2024-2025. Considering his massive impact on the power play, he should be expected to contribute 35 goals and 65-70 points.

Mika Zibanejad

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	45	75	0.91

Even though Zibanejad delivered 26 goals and 72 points for the Blueshirts last season, he has faced some criticism because those were the lowest goals per game (0.32) and points per game (0.89) in his eight seasons with the Rangers. A declining shot rate coupled with a shooting percentage (11.8 percent) that was his lowest since 2015-2016 led to lower-than-expected production from the Rangers’ No. 1 centre. Worse, he scored just three goals in 16 playoff games, so he fell in for some of the same critiques that landed on Panarin, that he was fine as a productive regular season player but he couldn’t deliver when the Rangers needed it in the postseason. For the record, Zibanejad finished the 2024 playoffs with 16 points in 16 games. On top of his offensive production, Zibanejad is a key part of the Rangers’ penalty killing unit. Barclay Goodrow, who will be playing in San Jose next season, was the only Rangers forward getting more four-on-five ice time than Zibanejad. While he is not the most physical player, Zibanejad does use his size and strength to his advantage and that allows him to protect the puck effectively. A consistently durable and productive player, Zibanejad should be a key component for the Rangers in 2024-2025. He is capable of scoring 30 goals and 75 points.

Filip Chytil

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	21	27	48	0.69

A concussion limited Chytil to just 10 regular season games and six playoff games in 2023-2024. In those 10 regular season contests, Chytil flashed great potential, with the Rangers controlling 58.8 percent of shot attempts and 56.1 percent of expected goals with Chytil on the ice. He did not score any goals in the 10 regular season games or the six playoff games, but he did have six assists in the regular season and was coming off a 2022-2023 season in which he set career highs with 22 goals and 45 points. A big centre who skates well in transition, Chytil has a quick release and has improved his ability to get into scoring position. When healthy, Chytil is an excellent fit as a third-line centre, capable of driving play, shutting down the opposition, and making regular offensive contributions. He could be better on the faceoff dot, however, as he has won just 40.4 percent of faceoffs throughout his career. That is clearly an area for improvement. Although that is true, the main concern for Chytil is ensuring that he is healthy for the 2024-2025 campaign. If he is, it would be reasonable to expect 35 points from Chytil, recognizing that he has the potential to score more than that.

Reilly Smith

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	22	28	50	0.63

Acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins, Smith has carved out a career as a reliable secondary scorer who can play in all situations. Smith scored on a career-low 8.6 percent of his shots last season, on his way to finishing with 13 goals, so this could be a case of the Rangers buying at a relative low point in Smith’s value. He is an underrated player whose team routinely outshoots and outscores the opposition when Smith is on the ice. In his 12-plus seasons in the NHL, the veteran winger has had one season in which his team was outscored with him on the ice. That was 2016-2017, his last season in Florida. A five-time 20-goal scorer who can kill penalties, Smith should improve the Rangers’ forward depth and Smith has the versatility to move around the lineup, making the team better wherever he plays. Although he is a left shot, Smith prefers to skate on the right wing, but can play both wings. While Smith could see his percentages bounce back a bit this season, he is also 33 years old, so that ought to be taken into account, too. With that understanding, Smith could still contribute 15-20 goals and 40-45 points in his first season on Broadway.

Kaapo Kakko

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	22	37	0.46

The second pick in the 2019 Draft, Kakko has not had a breakout season, that announced he was a legit NHL scorer, though he did hit career highs with 18 goals and 40 points in 2022-2023. That production fell off to 13 goals and 19 points in 61 games last season as a lower-body injury took him out of action. Kakko was practically invisible in the playoffs, contributing one goal and two points in 15 games, getting scratched once in the Conference Final series against Florida. Even if the offensive numbers have not really been there, Kakko has quality underlying numbers that suggest he is worth keeping around. If Kakko is healthy this season and picks up where he was in 2022-2023, then that could signify that he offers real long-term value. If it’s another season of inconsistent production or injuries get in the way, then the frustration could reach a point where it will finally be time for Kakko to move on. Kakko is a big-bodied winger who will go to the net and has the ability to protect the puck to make plays. Can the 23-year-old winger take the next step in his development? An offensive breakout is still possible, but it is likely more reasonable to expect 15 goals and 35 points, a quality contribution from a spot in the Rangers’ middle six.

Will Cuylle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	14	13	27	0.33

A 6-foot-3 winger who has some touch around the net, Cuylle played one season in the American Hockey League before earning a regular spot with the Rangers in 2023-2024. In addition to his contributions as a depth scorer, Cuylle makes a consistent physical impact on the game. He led the Rangers with 249 hits while playing a mere 11:08 per game and he can handle himself when the gloves get dropped, too. This should not be surprising from a player who dropped the mitts in a top prospects game! Cuylle’s rookie campaign laid the foundation for his career, establishing that he is a legitimate NHL player. The challenge for Cuylle is to build on that and show that he can be more than a fourth-line banger. Even if he were to be a third-line banger, that would mean more ice time with better teammates and that could lead to better all-around production. To be fair to Cuylle, expectations should still be modest in his sophomore season, but if he bumps up to the Rangers’ third line, where he conceivably could join Chytil and Kakko, Cuylle could produce 25-30 points, with maybe 12-15 goals. That won’t draw much interest in standard leagues, but Cuylle’s hit totals could bring interest in banger leagues that reward that physical play.

Jimmy Vesey

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	13	15	28	0.34

Although there was a lot of fuss about Vesey when he was coming out of college hockey, he has never been much of a scorer. He has become an effective checking winger who thrives on the penalty kill. Across the past three seasons, there are 99 forwards that have played at least 300 minutes of four-on-five hockey. Only four (Jesper Fast, Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho, and Blake Coleman) had a lower rate of expected goals against than Vesey. His defensive reliability does allow the Rangers to move Vesey around the lineup if need be. At times, he has been the defensive conscience on a scoring line, but Vesey is a better fit in a defensive role. Vesey has good size and can take the puck hard to the net, but has generally been able to contribute in a more limited fashion offensively. He has hit double-digit goal totals in five different seasons and last seasons’ 26 points was Vesey’s most since his career-high 35 points in 2018-2019. Expectations should be modest for Vesey in 2024-2025, but a dozen goals and 25 points is still within range for him, playing a useful complementary role for the Blueshirts

DEFENSE

Adam Fox

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	16	60	76	0.97

One of the premier blueliners in the NHL, Fox has finished in the top five of Norris Trophy voting for four consecutive seasons, capturing the award for best defenceman in 2020-2021. Fox plays the game with intelligence, ensuring that he is in the right position time after time. He exhibits great patience and handles the puck with confidence. Across the past two seasons, the Rangers have controlled 54.0 percent of shot attempts and 53.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Fox on the ice. He is a dominant player, one that has the ability to have a major impact on the game at both ends of the rink. If there is one area for improvement in Fox’s game, it is that he could shoot the puck more, especially considering how often it ends up on his stick in the course of a game. This is a minor quibble, however, since Fox is coming off a season in which he recorded more than a point per game for the first time in his career. As long as he is healthy, Fox is going to be a contender for the Norris Trophy. In 2024-2025, he should be expected to contribute 12-15 goals and 70-75 points.

K’Andre Miller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	9	24	33	0.41

A rangy 6-foot-5 defender who is an exceptional skater, Miller excels at using his speed and massive reach to shut down opposing forwards. His ability to efficiently close the gap on the puck carrier allows Miller to shut down the attack, often eliminating any threat against the Rangers net. His confidence has grown in recent seasons and that is reflected in his play. Miller played primarily with Jacob Trouba and their effectiveness as a pair slipped a bit in 2023-2024. On the defensive end, they allowed a higher rate of shots against and, individually, Miller faded late in the season, managing a single assist in his last 14 games before he contributed four points in 16 playoff games. Considering how impressive Miller was in 2022-2023, enjoying a breakout season as a force at both ends of the ice, perhaps it’s not altogether surprising that he hit a bit of a speed bump in 2023-2024. Even with that hiccup, the 24-year-old defenceman has great potential and should be a major contributor to the Rangers’ cause for years to come. In 2024-2025, it is reasonable to expect 30-35 points from Miller. He has blocked more than 100 shots in back-to-back seasons and has recorded more than 140 hits in three consecutive seasons, so if Miller has adequate point production, those peripherals stats should push him into more valuable territory.

Jacob Trouba

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	5	25	30	0.38

The Rangers’ captain was a scapegoat during the Rangers offseason as the team apparently attempted to trade him in order to free up some cap space, but Trouba is rumoured to have exercised his no-trade clause to prevent a move. The 30-year-old blueliner has had better seasons and with the Rangers getting outscored 55-44 with him on the ice in the regular season, the fan base was suddenly turning on Trouba. That’s a tough situation for a guy who is a warrior on the ice, as Trouba was one of three players to record at least 180 hits and 180 blocked shots last season. Moritz Seider and Mackenzie Weegar were the others. Trouba also played through a broken ankle in the playoffs. He is a devasting hitter, often balancing on the line of what is acceptable and intimidating versus what is worthy of suspension, but that also makes it fair to wonder if his style of play is starting to catch up with him, leading to last season’s decline in performance. He is not tasked with handling a big offensive load anymore, but if Trouba is going to bounce back in 2024-2025, then he should be closer to 30 points, while hopefully improving his defensive performance.

Braden Schneider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	17	23	0.28

Drafted in the first round in 2020, Schneider has established himself as a reliable third-pair defenceman in the NHL, but he could be ready for more responsibility as he continues to mature. Schneider’s defensive play improved in 2023-2024, even though the Rangers allowed more goals with him on the ice. That was due in large part to bad luck, as Schneider’s five-on-five on-ice save percentage went from .936 in 2022-2023 to .897 last season. He has yet to average 16 minutes per game, and last season’s 19 points counted as a career high, but Schneider did record 27 points in 22 Western Hockey League games during a shortened 2020-2021 season, so he has at least some offensive upside and still holds low end fantasy appeal for his contributions in peripheral categories like hits and blocked shots. He has recorded at least 130 blocked shots in back-to-back seasons and delivered 167 hits last season. Given his limited ice time, it’s easy to project more from Schneider if he is asked to take on more responsibility. Schneider’s offensive potential may not be great, but he could chip in 20-25 points while continuing to increase his impact in other parts of the game.

GOAL

Igor Shesterkin

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
59	35	18	6	5	0.916	2.52

It truly speaks to just how strong the pressure is for goaltender Igor Shesterkin when people talk about his 2023-24 regular season campaign. The 28-year-old Russian-born starter finished the season with numbers well above league average, boasting four shutouts and quality starts in nearly 60 percent of his games - and by most accounts, this year was considered a 'bad' year for him. He quickly established himself as a clear Vezina mainstay, and anything less than top five performances now come across as a red flag - even as the New York Rangers finished their year with a shiny new President's Trophy win.

Even if Shesterkin only replicates last year's numbers, though, the Rangers are still primed to be in excellent shape. Shesterkin will enter the 2024-25 season set to play another year alongside the surprisingly resurgent Jonathan Quick, who serves as a stabilizing veteran presence in the locker room and a fun stylistic foil to Shesterkin's structured play. Quick likely isn't going to be able to serve as a full tandem partner with Shesterkin, so the bulk of the workload will likely still fall to the younger of the pair - but that's perfectly okay. So long as Shesterkin continues to sail through his NHL career putting up top ten performances even in his worst seasons, the Rangers will be in excellent shape.

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW – EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL: Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 21 May 2024 23:00:55 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 04: Florida Panthers Left Wing Eetu Luostarinen (27) in action during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Florida Panthers and the New York Rangers on March 4, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

The Panthers are four wins away from reaching the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row, but they’re set to be challenged by the Rangers, who proved to be among the most balanced squads in the regular season, setting a franchise record in points with their 55-23-4 finish, and won their first seven playoff games along a path that saw them handily sweep win the Washington Capitals and eventually best the Carolina Hurricanes in six contests.

The Rangers can count on strength in nearly every aspect of the game. They have a former Vezina Trophy winner in Igor Shesterkin, and he’s playing up to his potential in the postseason with an 8-2 record, 2.40 GAA and .923 save percentage. If he gets injured? Then they can turn to three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Quick. Sure, he’s 38 years old now, but he proved to be solid in the regular season with an 18-6-2 record, 2.62 GAA and .911 save percentage in 27 outings.

Even if the Rangers didn’t get good goaltending, though, they can adapt. New York ranked seventh in the regular season with 3.39 goals per game and has elevated in the playoffs to an average of 3.50. Artemi Panarin is coming off the best regular season of his career (49 goals, 120 points) and was backed up by Vincent Trocheck (25 goals, 77 points), Chris Kreider (39 goals, 75 points), Mika Zibanejad (26 goals, 72 points) and defenseman Adam Fox (17 goals, 73 points). To put all that into context, 52 players finished the 2023-24 campaign with at least 70 points, which adds up to an average of 1.625 players per team. The fact that the Rangers employed five of them speaks to their incredible depth.

That’s before you even get into Alexis Lafreniere, who came into his own this season with 28 goals and 57 points, providing the Rangers with another key weapon, or Blake Wheeler, who hasn’t played since Feb. 15 due to a leg injury, but is healthy now and provides the Rangers with another potential middle-six option should his services be needed.

In the likely event that the series turns physical, the Rangers are covered there too. Barclay Goodrow, Will Cuylle, Trocheck, defensemen Jacob Trouba and Braden Schneider are all happy to play a gritty game. If needed, the Rangers can also send out Matt Rempe. The 21-year-old rookie has been a healthy scratch in three of New York’s last four contests, but he’s already become a fan favorite and garnered national attention for his eagerness to play with intensity while taking full advantage of his 6-foot-7, 241-pound frame.

It's not hard to see how this roster reached the Eastern Conference Final or envision a path for them to win the Cup, but it’d still be wrong to dismiss the Panthers. Florida is one of the few teams that can measure up to the Rangers.

The Panthers had a similarly strong regular season, finishing atop the Atlantic Division with a 52-24-6 record, and they haven’t been made to sweat too much in the playoffs, dispatching Tampa Bay in five contests before getting past the Bruins in six games. Like the Rangers, Florida’s strengths are numerous.

Shesterkin being a former Vezina Trophy winner is impressive, but Panther’s goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has done it twice, and he’s in the running to claim that honor for a third time after being named a finalist for 2023-24 after posting a 36-17-4 record, 2.37 GAA and .915 save percentage across 58 outings. Bobrovsky has been a somewhat mixed bag in the 2024 playoffs, but he is entering this series after posting a 1.62 GAA and a .921 save percentage over his past five starts, so his recent play doesn’t lend itself to much cause for concern.

Florida is also another team that doesn’t necessarily need great goaltending to win. The squad wasn’t quite as dominant offensively as the Rangers in the regular season, finishing 11th with 3.23 goals per game, but the Panthers have stepped up in the playoffs with an average of 3.55.

Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart have each supplied at least four goals and nine points through 11 postseason outings to lead the Panthers’ attack, but they’ve gotten plenty of support from Anton Lundell (two goals, nine points), Evan Rodrigues (three goals, six points) and defensemen Brandon Montour (three goals, eight points) and Gustav Forsling (two goals and seven points).

Just outside of the periphery, there are other Panthers forwards who might prove to be heroes at some point during this series. Sam Bennett has been limited to six playoff contests due to an upper-body injury, but he’s healthy now and has a respectable two goals and four points through six postseason appearances this year. Then there’s Vladimir Tarasenko, who has just two goals and five points across 11 playoff outings but shouldn’t be counted out after providing 23 goals and 55 points in 76 regular-season contests. He’s also a former Stanley Cup winner with 108 career postseason games under his belt, so as the pressure continues to grow, he could become a valuable locker-room presence.

Should this series get physical, the Panthers also have players who can respond, most notably Bennett and Tkachuk.

These teams aren’t without their flaws. Though Shesterkin has been largely masking it, the Rangers’ defensive play in front of him has left something to be desired. New York has an xGA/60 of 3.24 in the playoffs, which suggests that if you factor out Shesterkin, the defense itself has been mediocre to poor, and well below that of Florida with its xGA/60 of 2.62. At the same time, Bobrovsky’s inconsistency makes it hard to know what the Panthers are going to get, even if he has performed well recently.

Still, these are two teams extremely deserving of their place among the final four postseason squads, and seeing them battle it out will be a real treat.

KEY MATCHUPS

Igor Shesterkin vs. Sergei Bobrovsky

At their best, both of these netminders are incredibly hard to get anything by. They’ve had their share of rough patches too, and they each have their work cut out for them against the opposing offense in this series, but either goaltender has the potential to rise up and steal this series. To some extent, Bobrovsky did that in the second round when he shut the door on Boston by allowing just eight goals on 101 shots over the last five contests, though he had substantial help from his defense. Shesterkin was similarly lights out in the Rangers’ opening series, limiting Washington to seven goals on 101 shots over four games.

Will either of these two be the MVP of the Eastern Conference Final?

Sam Reinhart vs. Artemi Panarin

The Panthers and Rangers’ regular season scoring leaders have made their presence felt in the playoffs, but both still have room for improvement. Panarin ranks third offensively on the Rangers with four goals and 11 points through 10 postseason appearances this year while Reinhart is tied for fourth with five goals and nine points across 11 playoff outings. It’s worth noting that both of these players rose to the occasion in the season series -- Reinhart finished with four goals and five points in three outings against the Rangers while Panarin supplied three goals and four points versus the Panthers -- so they should rise to the occasion in the Eastern Conference Final.

Brandon Montour vs. Adam Fox

On paper, the battle of top offensive defensemen in one area where the Rangers should have the clear edge. Florida didn’t have a blueliner reach the 40-point milestone in 2023-24 with Montour crashing from 73 points in 80 appearances in 2022-23 to 33 points across 66 regular-season contests this year. Meanwhile, Fox has surpassed the 70-point milestone in three consecutive campaigns.

However, Fox has been quiet offensively in the postseason with four helpers through 10 contests and is entering this series on a four-game scoring drought. Meanwhile, Montour has stepped up with three goals and eight points through 11 playoff games. It’ll be interesting to see how these two perform in this series, especially because Fox did so well in the Rangers’ previous two postseason runs, recording five goals and 31 points across 27 outings.

X-FACTOR

Florida Panthers: Bobrovsky is the Panthers’ biggest question mark. It could be argued that I’ve made too much of the 35-year-old goaltender’s inconsistencies, especially after he put forth a season worthy of Vezina Trophy consideration, but when I think about him being unpredictable, I’m not just referring to a few bad playoff performances or some cold stretches during the regular season. Bobrovsky’s career has been one of extremes with him being dominant at times and a disaster at others. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that he was strong against the Rangers in the regular season, posting a 2-0-1 record, 2.59 GAA and .919 save percentage, so that coupled with the strong play we noted above in the second round provide reason for optimism.

New York Rangers: I noted above about the Rangers’ mediocre defense outside of Shesterkin, and that’s a potentially big problem. It’s also not one that’s completely new either. During the regular season, the Rangers ranked 13th in xGA/60 at 3 while Florida tied for fourth with a 2.78 xGA/60. That gap growing in the playoffs is troubling and potentially is New York’s biggest weakness going forward.

PREDICTION

Through the first seven games of the playoffs, the Rangers looked like a team of destiny. Sweeping the Capitals was noteworthy, but Washington wasn’t a great team, so the outcome wasn’t shocking. Taking a 3-0 lead on Carolina, though? That’s special and drew allusions to the Cup-winning 1994 Rangers, who also started their playoff run 7-0.

Some of that glean wore off the Rangers when they dropped Games 4 and 5, but this group still feels like the team to beat. Perhaps the Panthers can do it, they’re certainly a force in their own right, but I suspect New York will edge past them in seven games.

McKeen’s 2024 NHL Playoff Pool Picklist

Robert Howard — Sat, 20 Apr 2024 17:01:11 +0000

COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 25: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid #97 prior to the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

In kicking off our 2024 NHL Playoff Pool coverage, Scott Cullen did an excellent breakdown of how to strategize for your pool. We recommend you give it a read and can link here.

The picklist below largely follows the strategy laid out in his article focusing on these broad categories – 1) Diversify 2) Stacking 3) First Round Winners 4) Power Play 5) Late Season Production 6) Injuries 7) Targeting playoff performers. Every playoff season will be different, of course, and simply following the Stanley Cup odds laid in many places including BetGM will provide a picture of which teams you should focus on with your picks to make the final, but the path to that result will vary. They currently have the Carolina Hurricanes (650) and the Colorado Avalanche (700) as odds on favourites to meet in the Stanley Cup Final, followed closely by Florida Panthers (700), Dallas Stars (800), Edmonton Oilers (800) and the New York Rangers (900).

If we look at McKeen’s team predictions for each of the first round series it becomes clear some teams have an easier path and their players will provide the best odds to play the most games. Lets look at how the brackets might shake out.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Dallas Vs. Vegas – We have Dallas winning in seven in a very hard-fought battle. A deep Dallas team versus the defending Champion who boasts several high-profile additions to end the season.

Winnipeg Vs. Colorado – This should be another war with the potential of a Winnipeg upset if Connor Hellebuyck rises to the occasion and Georgiev continues his late season struggles. Colorado should triumph in seven games.

Second Round Matchup: Colorado vs Dallas - The winner of these two close series meet and it means one of the highly ranked Colorado or Dallas will eliminate each other in the second round, assuming no upset in the first.

Edmonton Vs. Los Angeles – Edmonton should have the depth and firepower to take Los Angeles in six as we have predicted.

Vancouver Vs. Nashville – We hesitate to underestimate Nashville again, and this could be a close contest, but feel confident Vancouver will take it in six.

Second Round Matchup: Edmonton vs Vancouver – This should make for a thrilling series, but McDavid and company looked on a mission in the second half and should proceed to the conference final in six.

Therefore, the conference final in the west is projected to be Edmonton versus Colorado or Dallas (two very closely matched teams).

EASTERN CONFRENCE

Florida Vs. Tampa Bay – The recent two-time Stanley Cup champion meets last year’s finalist in the first round. While Tampa’s core may be aging, they are still a real threat if they get rolling. Florida showed they know how to win in the playoffs last year as well. Two goaltenders who can steal a series may make this a potential upset, but Florida should prevail in six.

Boston Vs. Toronto – Old nemesis meet again in the first round. Boston has beaten Toronto consistently in the playoffs in recent years and won all head-to-head matchups this season. There are questions about both teams, but the series should go seven and really could go either way.

Second Round Matchup: Boston Vs. Florida – with both series offering potential upsets, Florida players are ranked higher than Boston, and have ranked some high scoring Leafs and reasonable picks given they could well make it to the second round and can provide a challenge for both teams.

Carolina Vs. New York Islanders – A deep Carolina team adding some significant pieces at the deadline and should beat the Islanders here in five games.

New York Rangers Vs. Washington – The Rangers should be heavy favourites in this series and should beat the Capital in five or six games.

Second Round Matchup: - Carolina vs New York Rangers – of the second-round matchups this is the one we are most comfortable predicting. It should be a close series with the Hurricanes moving on to the Conference Final against Florida.

The following picklist is based on those possible outcomes. The first round offers some interesting matchups that could leave a favourite or two on the outside looking in early. Stack up on the teams you feel have the best odds of taking the cup but understand there are always upsets. Looking at the above, the teams with the easiest path to the conference final are Edmonton and Carolina. Colorado and Dallas are favourites of both the oddsmakers and ourselves to win a cup, but one of them will bow out by the second round. Florida has depth but will have to go through Tampa and either Boston or Toronto.

Good luck whichever strategy you choose.

Subscribers can download an excel version of this list in subscriber downloads

RANK	Player	Team	Pos	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	P/GP	EVG	EVP	PPG	PPP
1	Connor McDavid	EDM	C	76	32	100	132	35	30	1.74	24	87	7	44
2	Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	82	51	89	140	35	42	1.71	41	92	10	48
3	Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	78	36	53	89	34	36	1.14	24	55	11	32
4	Jake Guentzel	CAR	C	67	30	47	77	25	22	1.15	25	55	5	22
5	Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	81	41	65	106	26	76	1.31	20	65	21	39
6	Mikko Rantanen	COL	R	80	42	62	104	19	50	1.3	28	64	14	40
7	Cale Makar	COL	D	77	21	69	90	15	16	1.17	13	47	7	39
8	Sam Reinhart	FLA	C	82	57	37	94	29	31	1.15	25	55	27	34
9	Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	L	80	26	62	88	19	88	1.1	19	55	6	32
10	Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	73	23	57	80	33	24	1.1	18	49	5	29
11	Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	82	49	71	120	18	24	1.46	38	75	11	44
12	Jason Robertson	DAL	L	82	29	51	80	19	22	0.98	20	52	9	28
13	Roope Hintz	DAL	C	80	30	35	65	26	22	0.81	19	42	8	19
14	Seth Jarvis	CAR	C	81	33	34	67	23	14	0.83	18	44	13	20
15	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	R	59	19	33	52	13	58	0.88	14	35	5	17
16	Evan Bouchard	EDM	D	81	18	64	82	34	32	1.01	10	47	8	35
17	Zach Hyman	EDM	L	80	54	23	77	36	48	0.96	39	57	15	20
18	Valeri Nichushkin	COL	R	54	28	25	53	5	22	0.98	12	30	16	21
19	Nikita Kucherov	TBL	R	81	44	100	144	8	22	1.78	31	91	13	53
20	Auston Matthews	TOR	C	81	69	38	107	31	20	1.32	51	77	18	29
21	David Pastrnak	BOS	R	82	47	63	110	21	47	1.34	35	75	12	35
22	Jack Eichel	VGK	C	63	31	37	68	4	27	1.08	20	44	11	22
23	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM	C	80	18	49	67	10	36	0.84	14	38	4	26
24	Joe Pavelski	DAL	C	82	27	40	67	12	20	0.82	16	46	11	21
25	Matt Duchene	DAL	C	80	25	40	65	15	20	0.81	19	49	6	16
26	Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	81	26	46	72	15	30	0.89	12	35	12	31
27	Martin Necas	CAR	C	77	24	29	53	-9	42	0.69	16	40	8	13
28	Vincent Trocheck	NYR	C	82	25	52	77	16	55	0.94	13	52	11	24
29	Chris Kreider	NYR	L	82	39	36	75	19	26	0.91	19	41	18	29
30	William Nylander	TOR	R	82	40	58	98	1	24	1.2	26	59	11	35
31	Mitch Marner	TOR	R	69	26	59	85	21	18	1.23	17	57	8	27
32	Adam Fox	NYR	D	72	17	56	73	21	36	1.01	10	38	6	33
33	Miro Heiskanen	DAL	D	71	9	45	54	8	36	0.76	7	33	2	21
34	Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	76	34	38	72	17	36	0.95	26	51	8	21
35	Mark Stone	VGK	R	56	16	37	53	1	22	0.95	10	35	4	14
36	Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	82	32	33	65	14	38	0.79	26	52	3	10
37	Casey Mittelstadt	COL	C	80	18	39	57	10	32	0.71	15	48	3	9
38	Jonathan Drouin	COL	L	79	19	37	56	12	28	0.71	14	37	5	19
39	Artturi Lehkonen	COL	L	45	16	18	34	11	14	0.76	9	22	7	12
40	Sam Bennett	FLA	C	69	20	21	41	17	100	0.59	15	29	5	12
41	Vladimir Tarasenko	FLA	R	76	23	32	55	13	12	0.72	20	46	3	9
42	Jamie Benn	DAL	L	82	21	39	60	8	41	0.73	13	35	7	22
43	Tyler Seguin	DAL	C	68	25	27	52	10	26	0.76	22	42	3	8
44	J.T. Miller	VAN	C	81	37	66	103	32	58	1.27	25	61	10	40
45	Quinn Hughes	VAN	D	82	17	75	92	38	38	1.12	12	54	5	38
46	Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	82	34	55	89	20	12	1.09	21	56	13	31
47	Brad Marchand	BOS	L	82	29	38	67	2	78	0.82	19	37	7	26
48	Charlie Coyle	BOS	C	82	25	35	60	-2	38	0.73	17	44	7	11
49	Jonathan Marchessault	VGK	R	82	42	27	69	-2	40	0.84	34	52	8	17
50	Tomas Hertl	VGK	C	54	17	21	38	-28	22	0.7	10	26	6	11
51	Teuvo Teravainen	CAR	L	76	25	28	53	15	10	0.7	15	32	9	17
52	Mason Marchment	DAL	L	81	22	31	53	22	54	0.65	16	42	6	11
53	Thomas Harley	DAL	D	79	15	32	47	28	18	0.59	13	37	1	9
54	John Tavares	TOR	C	80	29	36	65	2	30	0.81	20	45	9	20
55	Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	78	21	38	59	12	18	0.76	15	44	6	15
56	Brayden Point	TBL	C	81	46	44	90	-16	14	1.11	31	58	15	32
57	Steven Stamkos	TBL	C	79	40	41	81	-21	34	1.03	21	42	19	39
58	Victor Hedman	TBL	D	78	13	63	76	18	76	0.97	9	45	4	31
59	Brandon Hagel	TBL	L	82	26	49	75	1	79	0.91	24	66	2	7
60	Evander Kane	EDM	L	77	24	20	44	-4	85	0.57	21	36	2	7
61	Logan Stankoven	DAL	C	24	6	8	14	10	4	0.58	5	12	1	2
62	Devon Toews	COL	D	82	12	38	50	28	18	0.61	12	43	0	5
63	Charlie McAvoy	BOS	D	74	12	35	47	4	86	0.64	11	34	1	13
64	Morgan Rielly	TOR	D	72	7	51	58	7	27	0.81	6	38	1	20
65	Brock Boeser	VAN	R	81	40	33	73	23	14	0.9	24	48	16	25
66	Alexis Lafrenière	NYR	L	82	28	29	57	2	40	0.7	26	51	2	6
67	Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	74	25	47	72	19	57	0.97	19	54	6	18
68	Kyle Connor	WPG	L	65	34	27	61	-6	6	0.94	29	42	5	19
69	Chandler Stephenson	VGK	C	75	16	35	51	-9	25	0.68	10	35	4	13
70	Mattias Ekholm	EDM	D	79	11	34	45	44	47	0.57	8	41	2	3
71	Josh Morrissey	WPG	D	81	10	59	69	34	44	0.85	8	50	2	19
72	Ross Colton	COL	C	80	17	23	40	-8	61	0.5	14	35	3	5
73	Warren Foegele	EDM	L	82	20	21	41	3	47	0.5	18	38	1	1
74	Brady Skjei	CAR	D	80	13	34	47	15	40	0.59	11	31	1	12
75	Brent Burns	CAR	D	82	10	33	43	19	20	0.52	5	22	4	20
76	William Karlsson	VGK	C	70	30	30	60	15	22	0.86	22	43	7	15
77	Shea Theodore	VGK	D	47	5	37	42	4	6	0.89	3	27	2	15
78	Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	82	48	46	94	16	43	1.15	35	62	13	32
79	Roman Josi	NSH	D	82	23	62	85	12	45	1.04	14	51	9	33
80	Sean Monahan	WPG	C	83	26	33	59	-1	12	0.71	15	36	9	21
81	Gustav Forsling	FLA	D	79	10	29	39	56	43	0.49	9	37	1	2
82	Brandon Montour	FLA	D	66	8	25	33	1	46	0.5	7	16	1	17
83	Mathew Barzal	NYI	C	80	23	57	80	-4	34	1	18	55	5	25
84	Noah Dobson	NYI	D	79	10	60	70	12	36	0.89	9	45	1	24
85	Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG	L	82	25	36	61	27	29	0.74	25	54	0	7
86	Tyler Toffoli	WPG	C	79	33	22	55	-6	14	0.7	22	37	11	18
87	Cole Perfetti	WPG	C	71	19	19	38	13	12	0.54	14	27	5	11
88	Gabriel Vilardi	WPG	C	47	22	14	36	11	14	0.77	13	22	9	14
89	Anthony Duclair	TBL	L	73	24	18	42	-8	34	0.58	19	30	5	12
90	Brock Nelson	NYI	C	82	34	35	69	-5	28	0.84	24	48	9	19
91	Bo Horvat	NYI	C	81	33	35	68	-1	39	0.84	22	48	10	18
92	Adrian Kempe	LAK	R	77	28	47	75	13	72	0.97	20	44	5	27
93	Kevin Fiala	LAK	L	82	29	44	73	1	62	0.89	18	43	11	30
94	Anze Kopitar	LAK	C	81	26	44	70	11	22	0.86	16	44	9	23
95	Jake DeBrusk	BOS	L	80	19	21	40	4	18	0.5	15	28	2	10
96	Tyler Bertuzzi	TOR	L	80	21	22	43	2	53	0.54	16	37	5	6
97	Ivan Barbashev	VGK	C	82	19	26	45	15	42	0.55	16	40	3	5
98	Gustav Nyquist	NSH	C	81	23	52	75	7	8	0.93	17	49	5	24
99	Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	82	26	43	69	6	18	0.84	12	41	14	28
100	Max Domi	TOR	C	80	9	38	47	10	118	0.59	8	45	1	2

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 17:57:50 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 14: New York Rangers Center Vincent Trocheck (16) and Washington Capitals Center Dylan Strome (17) face off during the National Hockey League game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers on January 14, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

At a glance, the Rangers-Capitals’ series might be the most lopsided series of all the first-round matchups, in part because Washington looks really bad on paper. Still, the Capitals have gotten this far, so perhaps there’s more to them than meets the eye.

Before we can discuss how Washington might be better than it looks, though, we need to establish why the Capitals look so underwhelming in the first place. For starters, Washington is entering the playoffs with a goal differential of minus-37, which is easily the worst of any playoff-bound squad this year. To put that into perspective, Ottawa, which finished with a 37-41-4 record, had a significantly better minus-26 goal differential. No team in 2023 made the playoffs with a goal differential worse than plus-17 and in 2022 the worst was Dallas at minus-8. Excluding the unusual COVID interrupted 2019-20 campaign, you’d have to go back to 2015-16 to find another postseason with a goal differential worse than minus-10 in Detroit, and even that version of the Red Wings looked leagues better in that metric at minus-13.

All this is to say that, at least in terms of goal differential, the Capitals aren’t just bad for a playoff team, they are historically so. The fancy stats don’t make the case for Washington much brighter. The Capitals Expected Goal Differential Per 60 was minus-0.3, which doesn’t set the Capitals apart by quite as much -- the Islanders made the playoffs at minus-0.28 -- though it is still pretty bad.

This all begs the question: How are the Capitals even here? The simple answer is luck or clutch play, depending on how you want to look at it. Washington was an incredible 20-2-11 in one-goal games compared to 20-29 in all other contests. Just Dallas and the Rangers earned more one-goal victories and, in contrast to Washington, both of those teams finished atop of the standings.

If you do want to ascribe Washington’s success in close contests as the result of clutch play, then you’re likely to feel more optimistic about them in the playoffs. Even if you don’t, though, there are reasons around the margin to think the Capitals are more than the top-line numbers suggest.

Most notable is its goaltending. Darcy Kuemper has skewed the defensive numbers downward with his 3.31 GAA and .890 save percentage across 33 appearances, but barring injury, that’s not necessarily going to matter much in the playoffs. Instead, Washington is likely to lean heavily on Charlie Lindgren, who has excelled with a 25-16-7 record, 2.67 GAA and .911 save percentage in 50 contests this season.

Up front, the Capitals have been terrible this year, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, which ranks 28th in the NHL. However, Alexander Ovechkin was far stronger in the second half of the campaign with 25 goals and 45 points in 46 contests compared to six goals and 20 points over his first 33 appearances. If Ovechkin can carry that into the playoffs, he might give the Rangers some trouble.

Even still, Washington shouldn’t be seen as anything other than an underdog because the gap isn’t even fully about the Capitals’ shortcomings, it’s also due to the Rangers’ abilities.

While Washington might have a couple of veterans capable of stepping up like Ovechkin, the Rangers boast an incredible forward corps. Artemi Panarin was one of the best players this campaign with 49 goals and 120 points, and he’s backed by Chris Kreider, Alexis Lafreniere, Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck, who each provided at least 25 goals. Aside from Ovechkin, Dylan Strome is the only other Capitals player with even 20 markers.

Then there’s the Rangers defense, which has been solid by limiting the competition to 3.00 xGA/60 (13th in the league), and behind it is one of the league’s top goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin, who had a 36-17-2 record, 2.58 GAA and .912 save percentage over 55 contests this season. Should he get injured or struggle, New York could always turn to Jonathan Quick, who has 92 starts worth of playoff experience and proved to be a capable backup this campaign, posting an 18-6-2 record, 2.62 GAA and .911 save percentage in 27 outings.

With that kind of balance and star power, a Capitals upset in this series would be nothing short of a Cinderella story.

KEY MATCHUPS

Charlie Lindgren vs. Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin enters this series with a far more impressive resume, and Lindgren will need to keep up to give the Capitals a chance. Although Lindgren is 30 years old, he’s spent most of that career as a journeyman and consequently has no playoff experience, so Game 1 will be a big test for him.

If there is a glimmer of hope here for the Capitals, it’s that Lindgren has a 2-1-0 record, 1.35 GAA and .955 save percentage in three career games against the Rangers. It’s a small sample size, but at least it’s something.

Artemi Panarin vs. Alex Ovechkin

Panarin has enjoyed an outstanding career in which he’s averaged 1.16 PPG in the regular season, but one thing he hasn’t done with regularity is step up in the playoffs. Instead, Panarin has seven goals and 20 points across 30 career playoff appearances. Meanwhile, Ovechkin is one of the top active players in terms of postseason production with 72 markers and 141 points in 147 outings. If Panarin wants to lead the Rangers to the Cup as Ovechkin did for Washington in 2018, he’ll need to step up when it matters most.

Adam Fox vs. John Carlson

This series will pit two top-tier offensive defensemen against each other. Carlson is getting up there in age, but the 34-year-old still contributed 10 goals and 52 points in 82 appearances this season while averaging 25:54 of ice time. Meanwhile, Fox missed a bit of time due to injury, but still surpassed the 70-point milestone for the third consecutive campaign by supplying 17 goals and 56 assists. Unlike Panarin, Fox has also stayed just as strong in past playoff runs, totaling five goals and 31 points across 30 outings.

X-FACTOR

Washington Capitals: The Capitals need to stay out of trouble. The Rangers had a 26.4 conversion rate on power plays in the regular season while Washington was 18th on the penalty kill with a 79 percent success rate. The good news for the Capitals is they were also a pretty disciplined team, taking just 246 minor penalties throughout the campaign, which was the seventh-least in the league. The notable exception to that was Tom Wilson, who tied for second with 38 minors.

New York Rangers: The Rangers already have plenty of depth, but they might get even more with the potential return of Blake Wheeler (lower body) and Filip Chytil (head). Wheeler’s status is uncertain, but Chytil, who hasn’t played since Nov. 2, seems poised to return. Chytil had 22 goals and 45 points in 74 outings in 2022-23, so if rust doesn’t prove to be too big of a hindrance, he could be a nice addition to the third line. Wheeler is also likely to serve in a bottom-six capacity if he does factor in at all. While the 37-year-old isn’t the player he once was, having him healthy would still be a nice luxury.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

The Rangers are well-positioned to go far in the playoffs, so taking their players in general is likely a good idea. As mentioned above, Panarin has been somewhat underwhelming overall in the playoffs, but he’s never been this effective before, so I wouldn’t be shy about selecting him in playoff pools. You also shouldn’t overlook Lafreniere, who made great strides in his fourth NHL campaign and seemed to only get better as the season went on, contributing 14 goals and 26 points over his past 28 contests.

Fox is an easy recommendation, but if your playoff league values PIM, hits and blocks, then Trouba is also worthy of consideration. Trouba won’t help you out much offensively after recording just three goals and 22 points in 69 contests this season, but he can contribute in the gritty categories.

I’d be more cautious about Capitals players given that Washington’s chances of making it past the first round are poor. However, Ovechkin might still be worthy of a gamble later in the draft, just because of how much potential value there is there if the Capitals do pull off an upset. Even if they don’t, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make a solid mark on this series.

You could also view Max Pacioretty as a sleeper candidate. He was limited to four goals and 23 points in 47 contests this year, but the 35-year-old might have something more to give. He’s certainly had big campaigns in the past and did look good during his most recent playoff stint in 2021, scoring five goals and 11 points across 13 appearances with Vegas.

PREDICTION

I think it’s fair to believe that the Capitals will put up a fight, but the difference between these teams is too great for me to realistically suggest that they’ll win. I’m projecting the Rangers to take this series in six.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Looking at teams with something to play for as season comes to close

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:30:02 +0000

Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Barring any postponements, the final day of the 2023-24 regular season with be Thursday. There are just 26 total games remaining before the playoffs get underway, so naturally there aren’t many teams to highlight for the final week. With that in mind, instead of picking out the teams with the most favorable schedules, I’m going to focus on the teams who have something left to play for this week. So, let’s dive into what the final days of the campaign will look like.

Please note that this week’s article is heavily skewed toward the Eastern Conference because there are still two playoff spots open while there isn’t much left to be decided in the West.

New York Islanders – MON VS NJD, WED VS PIT

The Islanders haven’t punched their playoff ticket, but they’re very likely to advance to the postseason. They have a 30-27-16 record, which is good for third in the Metropolitan Division.

They’ll play in New Jersey on Monday and host the Penguins on Wednesday. The Islanders can guarantee their playoff spot by picking up two points over those two contests. However, New York has a three-point advantage over the next closest non-playoff adversary, so there are scenarios where the Islanders can make the playoffs even if they go 0-2-0.

The Islanders’ task will be made more difficult if Noah Dobson remains out of the lineup. The defenseman has 10 goals and 70 points in 79 outings, but he missed Saturday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers due to an upper-body injury. Robert Bortuzzo dressed Saturday as a result of Dobson’s absence, but he’s not a replacement for the star blueliner -- Bortuzzo has no points through 25 appearances between St. Louis and the Islanders this season.

On the bright side for the Islanders, Brock Nelson is ending the campaign on a positive note. He scored twice Saturday to extend his point streak to three games. That gives the 32-year-old forward 32 markers and 65 points across 80 outings in 2023-24. He’ll almost certainly finish behind his 2022-23 mark of 75 points, but this is still the second-best campaign of his career in terms of total points.

If goal, Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin will likely split the final two contests. Assuming the Islanders make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts in Game 1. It’ll probably be Sorokin, but Varlamov has earned consideration thanks to his 2.66 GAA and .916 save percentage in 27 games, which tops Sorokin’s 2.99 GAA and .909 save percentage. The Islanders have also used Varlamov quite a bit recently, deploying him in seven of their past 11 games.

Washington Capitals – MON VS BOS, TUE @ PHI (BTB)

The Capitals made things tough for themselves by going 0-4-2 from March 28-April 7, but Washington might still be able to salvage the situation after winning its last three contests. The Capitals have 87 points (38-31-11), which puts them in the second wild-card seed. Detroit and Philadelphia are tied with Washington in points, but the Capitals have the edge in the tiebreaker over the Red Wings and a game in hand compared to Philadelphia. Additionally, Pittsburgh is one point shy of those three squads. All that is to say, Washington’s hold on its playoff spot is by the narrowest of margins.

The Capitals will host the Bruins on Monday and play in Philadelphia on Tuesday to conclude the season. Washington will make the playoffs if it wins both games. If the Capitals lose against the Bruins, then Tuesday’s season finale becomes a must-win and even then, it’s possible for the Capitals to miss the playoffs in the scenario where they lose Monday but beat the Flyers.

Alexander Ovechkin has been a major driver of the Capitals’ playoff push, scoring 22 goals and 35 points over his past 34 outings. However, he has slowed a little recently, providing a goal and an assist across Washington’s past four appearances, so his hot run might be over. The 38-year-old star has had a season of extreme highs and lows, but he’s done well overall, contributing 30 goals and 64 points in 77 outings.

Interestingly, it was Sonny Milano who served as Washington’s hero Saturday, providing two goals en route to a 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay. He has just 15 markers and 23 points in 47 appearances this season, but the 27-year-old also had a hat trick versus Carolina on March 22 and a four-game goal-scoring streak from March 1-9, so he can on occasion be a major factor and perhaps that will hold true during Washington’s final stretch. Still, his limited playing time puts a damper on his potential. Milano logged just 10:08 of ice time Saturday and has averaged 12:34 this season.

A safer bet for production over Washington’s last two games would be offensive defenseman John Carlson. This has been a strong season for him with nine goals and 51 points across 80 contests, and looked solid recently, supplying four goals and 13 points over his past 15 appearances.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS MTL, TUE @ MTL

The Red Wings suffered critical losses to Washington and Pittsburgh, but Detroit still has an opportunity to make the playoffs after earning a 5-4 overtime victory over Toronto on Saturday. Detroit is at 87 points (39-32-9), which puts the Red Wings in a tie with Washington for the second wild-card spot, though the Capitals control the tiebreaker, so Detroit would need to finish one point ahead of them to make the postseason. The Red Wings are narrowly ahead of Philadelphia, which has 87 points but has played in one more game than Detroit, and the Penguins, who have 86 points in 80 contests (37-31-12).

The Red Wings will finish the campaign with a home-and-away back-to-back against Montreal on Monday and Tuesday. The upside is the Canadiens are wrapping up a difficult season in which they’ve gone 30-36-14, so Detroit has a good chance of winning both contests. The downside is the Red Wings’ fate itself isn’t entirely in their hands -- Detroit can still miss the playoffs even if it wins both contests. Additionally, because Washington and Philadelphia will play each other and both teams would control the tiebreaker over Detroit, the Red Wings need to claim at least three out of four points over their final two games to have a mathematical chance of reaching the postseason.

Lucas Raymond is doing everything in his power to thrust the Red Wings into the postseason. The 22-year-old has contributed four goals and eight points over his active four-game scoring streak. His linemate Dylan Larkin has been right there with him, providing five goals and 10 points over his last seven outings. Look for that duo to continue to shine when Detroit faces Montreal.

Detroit’s bigger question is in goal. James Reimer started Saturday for the first time since March 28. The Red Wings got the win, but it was a mixed bag for the netminder, who stopped 32 of 36 shots. Meanwhile, Alex Lyon allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Penguins on Thursday and has been inconsistent recently while posting a 2-2-2 record, 2.83 GAA and .915 save percentage over his last six outings.

Ville Husso (lower body) suffered a setback while on an AHL conditioning stint, so he probably won’t be an option for the remainder of the campaign. That leaves Reimer and Lyon to split the final two starts. On the plus side, Montreal ranks 27th offensively with 2.80 goals per game, so the back-to-back set will be a favorable series for the Red Wings goaltenders.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE VS WAS

The Flyers were primed to make the playoffs before their 0-5-2 run from March 24-April 9. Philadelphia has rebounded by winning its last two games, though, leaving them with a 38-32-11 record. Philadelphia’s 87 points are tied with Washington and Detroit for the second wild-card seed, but the Flyers have played one more contest than either of them. The Flyers have also played one more game than Pittsburgh, which is trailing the main group by a point with a 37-31-12 record.

The Flyers’ final tilt is against Washington on Tuesday. They need to win against the Capitals to have a chance to make the playoffs, but even with a victory in that contest, Philadelphia will still miss the postseason if Detroit gets at least three points over its final two games or Pittsburgh wins its last two contests. Additionally, if Washington wins against Boston on Monday and then pushes the Flyers to overtime, then the Capitals would still finish ahead in the standings even if Philadelphia wins the outing.

Samuel Ersson is perhaps the biggest X-Factor going into Philadelphia’s final contest. He had a terrible stretch from March 14-April 9, posting a 2-5-2 record, 4.51 GAA and .829 save percentage in 10 outings, but he’s rebounded by stopping 44 of 45 shots over the Flyers’ last two outings. The Capitals aren’t a great team offensively, ranking 28th with 2.65 goals per game, so it’s plausible that Ersson will be able to extend his hot streak.

The Flyers will also be looking for Travis Konecny to continue his recent success. The 27-year-old has two goals and an assist over his past two outings and has set career highs this season with 33 goals and 68 points across 75 appearances. Noah Cates has done well too, collecting three goals and five points over his last six contests. He still has just 18 points in 58 appearances, which is down from 38 points in 2022-23, but at least the 25-year-old seems to be dialed in when it matters most.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS NSH, WED @ NYI

The Penguins seemed destined to miss the playoffs when they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina on March 7, but Pittsburgh forced itself back into the postseason conversation with a 7-0-2 stretch from March 26-April 11. However, the Penguins suffered a setback Saturday with a 6-4 loss to the Bruins.

Pittsburgh is now 37-31-12, putting the Penguins one point behind Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia in the battle for the second wild-card position. The Penguins will host Nashville on Monday and finish the campaign with a road contest against the Islanders on Wednesday. With Philadelphia and Washington set to play Tuesday, the Penguins need at least three of four points over their final two contests to have a mathematical shot, and even then, they’d need help from the tiebreaker system. Realistically, Pittsburgh will likely need to win both of its last two games to get into the postseason.

Sidney Crosby is sure to do his best to push the Penguins the rest of the way. He’s been a huge factor in their surge, supplying eight goals and 21 points over his past 11 outings. Crosby is up to 41 goals and 90 points in 80 appearances, which is extremely impressive production for a player who is 36 years old. Evgeni Malkin, who is 37, hasn’t been quite as effective this campaign with 25 goals and 64 points through 80 games, but he’s also gotten hot down the stretch with seven goals and 12 points over his past nine outings, so look for him to also show up on the scoresheet over the Penguins’ last two games.

The question is who will start in net. The Penguins have used Alex Nedeljkovic in each of their last 12 games, but he’s posted a 4.21 GAA and an .854 save percentage over his past four outings. To be fair, Tristan Jarry didn’t look good when he stepped into Saturday’s 6-4 loss to Boston in relief of Nedeljkovic -- Jarry stopped 12 of 14 shots in 26:27 of ice time -- but it might be that Nedeljkovic is running on fumes at this point, so maybe Jarry is still the better option, at least for Pittsburgh’s next contest Monday.

Dallas Stars – WED VS STL

The Stars have secured home-ice advantage through the Western Conference Championship, but Dallas can still go one further by claiming the Presidents’ Trophy. Dallas has 11 points (51-21-9), putting the Stars one point behind the Rangers (54-23-4). Carolina and Boston are tied at 109 points over 80 contests, so either team has an outside chance of winning the Presidents’ Trophy by winning each of its last two games.

Dallas’ final contest will be a home match versus St. Louis on Wednesday. Note that the Rangers control the tiebreaker over Dallas in the Presidents’ Trophy battle, so Dallas only has a chance to claim the title if it earns a victory over the Blues.

Even though the Stars still have something to play for, it wouldn’t be shocking if they rest some players Wednesday. For example, backup Scott Wedgewood might get the nod, both to keep him fresh in case he’s needed during the playoffs and to give Jake Oettinger a breather after starting in four straight and seven of Dallas’ past eight. The Blues rank 24th offensively with 2.86 goals per game, so Wednesday’s tilt would be a favorable matchup for Wedgewood.

Tyler Seguin, who didn’t play April 6 because of workload management related to his lower-body injury, might also get the game off. It wouldn’t be shocking if others were rested too, but I don’t think Ryan Suter and Joe Pavelski will be among those who get the game off. It might seem logical to give the two 39-years-olds a breather before the playoffs, but Suter and Pavelski have active iron man streaks of 452 and 313 games, respectively. Perhaps they’ll get less ice time than usual, though. We also might see Dallas give significant minutes in its finale to Logan Stankoven, who has six goals and 14 points in 23 contests, so don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old rookie has a productive game.

New York Rangers – MON @ OTT

With a 54-23-4 record, the Rangers will secure the Presidents’ Trophy with a victory against Ottawa on Monday. If New York loses the contest, the Rangers will still claim the title if Dallas loses its season finale, Boston is held to three of four points over its last two outings and Carolina is limited to two of four points over its final two games. The reason why the Bruins would need to do better than Carolina, even though both squads have 109 points through 80 contests, is because Boston is in a worse position when it comes to the tiebreaker.

Like Dallas, New York might rest players despite its final game having some relevance. Jonathan Quick will probably get the nod against the Senators. Quick has done well this campaign with an 18-6-2 record, but he has struggled recently, allowing 12 goals on 92 shots over his past three starts. Meanwhile, Ottawa has won eight of its last 12 contests, so while the Senators won’t be making the playoffs, they might still give Quick some trouble.

Outside of starting Quick, some of the Rangers’ top players, such as Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox might be scratched. Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin have participated in 165 and 163 consecutive games, respectively, so both of them will probably be in the lineup. Panarin is also two goals away from hitting 50 for the first time in his career, so keep an eye out for that. Chris Kreider will also likely be in the lineup. He needs just one more goal to reach 40 and this would be his first 82-game campaign if he dresses.

Arizona Coyotes – WED VS EDM

I’m throwing the Coyotes in here even though they long since have been mathematically eliminated. Arizona did have a 23-19-3 record through Jan. 22, but a horrific 0-12-2 run from Jan. 24-Feb. 29 effectively ended any hope the Coyotes had of making the playoffs. Still, there is a grim reason to note them: When Arizona hosts Edmonton on Wednesday, it could very well be the franchise’s last game before moving to Salt Lake City (the move isn’t official as of the time of writing but seems all but certain).

To some extent, the Coyotes’ probable move felt inevitable. Since the then Phoenix Coyotes declared bankruptcy in May 2009, it’s been one saga after another with the team and never since that date, have they looked truly secure in their home in Arizona. The fact that the Coyotes have been playing in a college arena since 2022 has made the situation look particularly untenable unless a long-term solution was secured. Even still, this is a sad ending for the dedicated fanbase in Arizona. It might not be the end -- even now there’s talk that the NHL might put an expansion team in Arizona after the Coyotes move if Alex Meruelo, who will sell the Coyotes, can secure a new arena deal -- but it is the end of a chapter.

With that in mind, Wednesday’s otherwise meaningless game has taken on a new meaning. Barring one more twist in this saga that prevents the anticipated move from happening, the contest will stand as a chance for the players to say goodbye to a fanbase that has been with them through all the turmoil. I would expect the Coyotes to play with a lot of heart under the circumstances. In particular, I’m interested to see how Clayton Keller, who was drafted by Arizona in 2016 and now serves as the squad’s top forward, does. He has been held off the scoresheet for his past three games, but Keller has still contributed 33 goals and 73 points in 76 outings overall, and I think the odds are high he will make his presence felt in the finale.

Another player to watch will be Josh Doan. He’s the son of Shane Doan, who was the captain of the franchise from 2003-17 and remains the franchise’s career leader in games (1,540), goals (402), assists (570) and points (972), among other categories. The younger Doan has given Coyotes fans a taste of the future recently, scoring four goals and eight points over nine games. Given his deep family connection to this franchise, this might be an especially emotional goodbye for him. It is also worth noting the grim symmetry here. Like Josh, Shane Doan saw his franchise move, in his case from Winnipeg to Phoenix, after appearing in just one season.