Chris Kunitz – McKeen's Hockey

Blackhawk Down – Chicago Blackhawks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:21:33 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - Chicago finished out of the playoffs for the first time ten seasons and only three seasons removed from the Stanley Cup in 2014-15, one of three in that decade. One season ago they registered 109 points, falling 33 point to 76 points this year. Prior to the collapse they had been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs in the prior two seasons. One would assume last season had unusual circumstances for a perennial cup contender to fall so precipitously. There were some factors, including an injury in net, but there seems a consensus their championship window has closed. Taking a closer look at the season and core group, it is true age is not on their side, but they may be underrated going into the season.

Jonathan Toews

FAILED EXPERIMENT -This is a team built around Jonathan Toews (30-years-old) and Patrick Kane (29-years-old), both signed for five years at an identical $10.5 million AAV a season. Likewise, on defense they are tied to 33-year-old Brent Seabrook ($6.875 million AAV – six years) and 35-year-old Duncan Keith ($5.53 million AAV – five years). All four have a no movement clause. They are joined by 33-year-old goaltender Corey Crawford ($6.0 million AAV – two years).

They are committed to this group and in a win-now mode for the foreseeable future. The Panarin/Saad trade at the start of last season was a product of that thinking. It was an attempt to reunite one of the strongest possession duos in the NHL with Toews from 2012-13 to 2014-15 and two cups in those four years. It was a disappointment as Saad struggled scoring only 35 points. Patrick Kane saw his production drop to less than a point a game for the first time in seven seasons missing the magical chemistry he owned with Artemi Panarin - who outscored him in Columbus.

While a disappointing experiment both Saad and Toews were still strong in possession numbers ranking 17^th (Toews 56.1% CF) and 22^nd (Saad 55.8 CF%) and were snake bitten by their scoring percentages. Saad posted a 7.6% rate down from his career rate of 10.9%. He had averaged 12 percent over the previous four seasons. He will only turn 26-years-old this season and should be counted on for a turn around. Toews shot at 9.5 percent down almost 50 percent from his career average of 14.1%.

TINKERING AROUND THE EDGES – Bowman’s off-season work has been to add depth at each of the positions. At forward he traded prospects for a veteran, Marcus Kruger, from their cup wins. He had a season to forget in 2017-18, apparently playing through a sports hernia. He and the also acquired 38-year-old veteran Chris Kunitz who will join Kruger in stabilizing the fourth line.

On defense he added 28-year-old Brandon Manning through free agency to the ninth worst defense group in the NHL, with the ninth worse save percentage. He fills in the top four which include steady Connor Murphy who struggled early in his first season with the Hawks but found his game by seasons end. Depth beyond the top four is suspect and without bounce back seasons from the aging Keith and Seabrook it will have its challenges. Keith is probably the best candidate as another Hawk who was snake bit with shooting percentage (1.1% versus career 4.4%) after having scored at a 0.66 points per game pace in the previous four seasons – a 54-point 82-game pace.

CRAWFORD LOSS DEVASTATING - Goaltending was the difference last season, Crawford was lost to an injury after appearing in 28 games with a 0.929 SV%, 2.27 GAA and a playoff worthy 16-9-2 record. He was replaced by 25-year-old Anton Forsberg who was overwhelmed in his first NHL season with a 10-16-4 record with a 0.908 SV% and 2.97 goals against average. Bowman added another veteran in Cam Ward for one season at $3.0 million. Crawford is not expected to be at 100% by training camp. Ward can play a decent amount of games having appeared in 43 last year and over 50 each of the previous three seasons in Carolina, but has posted consecutive save percentages of 0.906, 0.905 and 0.909 and represents a short-term solution.

The season was not all bleak news with encouraging performances from rookie Alex DeBrincat and sophomore Nick Schmaltz. They finished second and third in scoring respectively. DeBrincat led the team with 28 goals (third in rookie goal scoring). Schmaltz centered Patrick Kane on the second line much of the season giving the team two balanced lines up top. The provide much needed oxygen to a team with tight cap restriction with both on entry level contracts. There is much hope that Dylan Sikura can take on a similar role in the top six as a rookie after lighting it up in the NCAA. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, but barring trades the Hawks will need to draw on a prospect pool that suffered from the many years of winning.

Outlook - As many players that had poor season last year, they are all due to make a bounce back. If they can get a return to form and continued input from the youngsters, they can challenge for a playoff spot and will likely be under the radar this season.

NHL Playoff Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. New York Rangers (3)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Sat, 16 Apr 2016 17:26:30 +0000

Summary: They're the hottest team in hockey, and have been a nearly unstoppable force over the past few months.

They're the Penguins, and they're going to lose this series.

Why? Their defense remains a question mark, and they're scoring at a rate that's just unsustainable. There are questions around the health of Evgeni Malkin and Marc Andre Fleury. Both are expected back soon, but it is a factor.

They're up against a battle-tested opponent in the Rangers that might not have been as good as them in the regular season, but we expect the veteran-laden Blueshirts to raise their game. In particular their defense needs to step up and neutralize Pittsburgh’s strong possession game - and will be challenged by speed. The Rangers have also been shooting at an unsustainable rate this season, but will benefit from a closer checking game - and the leveling of that playing field.

And as good as Pittsburgh's offense is, if there's a goalie that can repel it, it's Henrik Lundqvist.

It'll be an extremely close series, but it'll go to the Rangers.

PREDICTION: Rangers in 7

Game One Recap: Jeff Zatkoff started over game-time decision Marc Andre Fleury (concussion) and delivered a big performance, stopping 35 of 37 shots and keeping the Penguins in the game. He carried a shutout into the third, when the Rangers scored on a 5-on-3 power play. Henrik Lundqvist’s eye injury is the most chilling result of the game. We have picked the Rangers, but without Lundqvist, everything changes. His status is being kept under close wraps by the Rangers, similar to Pittsburgh’s silence on their starter for game one. Patric Hornqvist (2G, 1A) and Sidney Crosby (1G 2A) combined for six points. Derek Stepan scored both New York goals. New York won the Corsi battle 55 CF to 36, and delivered 46 hits to the Pens 29.

Key Injuries: Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin (both expected back soon), Matt Murray, Beau Bennett, NYR – Ryan McDonough

Critical Factors: Henrik Lundqvist is critical to New York’s hopes. They finished 15^th in the league in defence after finishing first last season, and 34-year old King Henrik has looked average at times, with moments of brilliance – he finished with a very middle of the road 14^th in save percentage (0.920) and 22^nd in GAA (2.48 – min 30 games). The window to win is closing, and he remains a very good bet to put the regular season behind him and rise to the occasion. Eric Staal was acquired at the trade deadline and Keith Yandle retained, both UFA’s this summer, so the team went all in for a run. The Penguins have been flying (pun intended) under new coach Mike Sullivan, appointed in December. Since he took the helm they posted the league’s second highest CF% (54.6), just behind LA, and a full two percentage points above third place – up from 20^th place (48.4%) under coach Johnston – a remarkable turnaround that can’t be ignored. Marc Andre Fleury was making a case for the Vezina at stretches, and finally looked ready for the big Spring performance everyone has been waiting for, before suffering a concussion. The Rangers boast an experienced defensive group that outmatches Pittsburgh’s and their poise in handling the Pens firepower, and interrupting their strong possession game could be a big point of differentiation in the series. It will mean a number of them raising their game - but they have been here before. Ryan McDonagh, their best defenceman, broke his hand, but is listed as day-to-day.

Potential Breakout Players: The Penguins stars have been playing at an elite level since the coaching change Sidney Crosby (50-27-36-63, 1.26 PPG), Kris Letang (45-13-37-50, 1.11 PPG), Evgeni Malkin (26-13-18-31, 1.19 PPG). Nick Bonino (13-5-11-16 together) filled in well for Malkin between Phil Kessel (13-6-7-13) and Carl Hagelin (37-10-17-27 with Pittsburgh, 13-6-7-13 with Bonino and Kessel). Crosby linemates Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz could flourish if he continues to raise the level of his play (see game one). Derek Stepan was blazing hot down the stretch with 17 points in his last 10 games (10-8-9-17) – adding two goals in the first game. He and Chris Kreider form an effective tandem (nine points in his last eight - 8-5-4-9). Rick Nash has only scored twice in the last 16 games (16-2-0-2) after suffering a bone bruise. Mats Zuccarello has been skating with Stepan on the top line over the last while, and is coming off a career year – largely combining well with Derick Brassard for much of the season. A big playoff could be in store.

Season Matchup: Pittsburgh 3-1

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): PIT 52.6% (2^nd) NYR 47.5% (25^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): PIT 100.6 (7^th) NYR 102.3 (1^st)

Power Play (NHL.com): PIT 18.4% (16^th) NYR 18.6% (14^th)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): PIT 84.4% (5^th) NYR 78.2% (26^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): PIT 2.94 (3^rd) NYR 2.84 (7^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): PIT 2.43 (6^th) NYR 2.62 (15^th)

Notes: New York enjoyed the most ‘puck luck’ of any NHL team – finishing first in both OSh% (8.9%) and OSv% (93.4%). The on-ice save percentage has been top four for the last four years (1^st, 4^th, 2^nd, 1^st) so Lundqvist looms large – on-ice shooting percentage is elevated based on previous years – 4^th last year, but 28^th and 18^th the previous two. Pittsburgh owns a large advantage in possession at 5v5 – and are middle of the road on OSh% with 7.5% - until you look at a their 9.1% OSh% since January – which jumps to 9.9% in the months of March and April – not likely sustainable despite their superstars. Both power plays are middle of the road, but the Rangers weakness penalty killing stands out.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Adds and Drops

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 24 Nov 2015 15:37:56 +0000

This week the waiver wire looks at some players who you may want to look at dropping. The season is no longer new and it may be time to cut bait on some dead weight. And of course, some players you can add to fill those empty roster spots.

Drops

Dan Boyle, New York Rangers – Defence

Father time has caught up to Boyle. The 39 year old veteran has only four assists this season in 16 games played. He is seeing limited power play minutes and with just four points is offering little in terms of fantasy value.

Antoine Vermette, Arizona Coyotes – Centre

While the Coyotes have had a surprising start and players like Max Domi and Martin Hanzal have been somewhat surprising, Vermette has been invisible. In 14 games, he has yet to score and has only three assists, despite playing mainly on a line with Domi and Mikkel Boedker.

Nick Shore, Los Angeles Kings – Centre

After a strong season in the AHL scoring 42 points in 34 games and then being called up to replace Mike Richards last season, several predicted (or hoped) that Shore would be a sleeper pick. With only two goals in 21 games this season, Shore has not provided any fantasy value on the Kings fourth line. If you are still sitting on Shore on your roster, it’s time to cut bait.

Michael Grabner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Right Wing

The Leafs gave up several fringe prospects to acquire Grabner. The trade was more of a purge than an acquisition and Grabner has done little to rewards the Leafs, or fantasy owners. In his 20 games he has failed to score and has only two assists.

Chris Kunitz, Pittsburgh Penguins – Left Wing

Being Sidney Crosby’s wing man served Kunitz pretty well. He won an Olympic Gold Medal and signed a nice contract. But the well has run dry, Crosby is struggling himself and Kunitz has only three points in 20 games this season. He is no longer fantasy relevant.

Adds

Joel Ward, San Jose Sharks – Right Wing 65% owned

The Sharks are on a roll and Ward is heating up with three points in the last two games. Ward is skating on a line with Patrick Marleau and Tomas Hertl and has17 points in 21 games. Ward is also seeing time on the power play and has three PP points this season. Ward is also a reliable source of peripheral stats such as hits and blocks.

Tomas Fleischmann, Montreal Canadiens – Left Wing 47% owned

The Flash has been hot lately with four points in the last four games, including three goals. Despite not playing on a top six line, he has 15 points this season in 22 games. The 31 year old winger has found a niche in Montreal and has fantasy relevance again.

Shane Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Defence 43% owned

Gostisbehere had eight points in 13 games in the AHL before being called up to replace the injured Mark Streit in Philadelphia. Since being recalled, he has two points in five games with the Flyers. The undersized defender is under the radar perhaps because last season was lost to injury, but he is an offensively gifted player who has the ability to make a fantasy impact now that he has an opportunity.

Chris Wideman, Ottawa Senators – Defence 19% owned

Wideman spent some time in the press box to start the season, but the Sens refused to subject him to waivers as the diminutive defender has significant offensive upside. Now with injuries to Patrick Wiercioch and Chris Phillips Wideman has been a regular in the Sens lineup. Last season’s AHL defenceman of the year winner may be small, but there is a role in today’s NHL for smaller players who can shoot and score like Wideman.

All ownership numbers based on Fantrax leagues

All line combinations are from Frozen pools via Dobber Hockey

Olympic Fantasy Draft Strategies

Carl Lemelin — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 12:02:42 +0000

All the hype surrounding the upcoming Olympic hockey tournament got me thinking: what if we started an Olympic fantasy pool?

What would be the best strategy? Would it be different than for a regular season pool? Some of you may have one planned already, so here are some tips that could help you edge out the competition in a sprint-type tournament.

1- Don't over-analyze the first round pick: Elite scorers are elite scorers. You probably won't win your pool in the first round, but you may well lose it by making a risky pick that doesn't pan out. Try to get out of the opening round with one of these musts: Canadians Sidney Crosby, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos (if healthy enough); Russians Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin; American Patrick Kane or Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson.

2- Study the tournament format: Of the three groups within which the preliminary round games will be played, Group B seems to be the one where offense will be easier to generate. It has two teams that feature no NHL-calibre goaltender, compared to only one such team in each of the other two groups. Therefore, Canadians and Finns should be favored for possible offensive explosions in the early stages of the tourney.

3- Take a chance on a star form a non-elite team: Past the first round of picks, don't hesitate to go for a hunch on a premier player from a middling nation: Finland, Czech Republic, Switzerland or Slovakia. Not many remember that the late Pavol Demitra and Marian Hossa of Slovakia finished 1 and 2 in scoring in Vancouver 2010. All-star type teams like Canada tend to spread out their scoring throughout the line-up while high scorers on mediocre teams get more quality offensive minutes. This may be the pick that makes the difference.

4- Established chemistry matters: There will be no time for getting acquainted in Sochi. Teammates with a built-in relationship from the NHL will have an advantage. Crosby-Chris Kunitz, Jonathan Toews-Patrick Sharp, Phil Kessel-James van Riemsdyk are all players that should be marked with an asterisk on your draft lists.

5- Keep updated on last minute roster decisions: If you are planning on running a competitive Olympic pool, the draft should be held near the eve of the tourney’s opening game (Feb. 12^th). This would give everyone enough time to get a clearer picture of planned PP units and starting goalies. This information will be crucial when compiling defensemen and goalies lists. If such info is unavailable, than make educated guesses. For example, if the draft was held today, I would rank Shea Weber high on my list based on the fact that he has the best right-handed shot to partner-up with Duncan Keith, Canada’s logical choice as quarterback on the PP.

6- Pick a winner and stick with’em: As is the case with playoff pools, you should trust your gut feeling on a team you believe has a chance to go all the way and rely heavily on its players in the heart of the draft. That is how you’ll pile up the points and distance your opponents... Assuming you’re right of course. If someone seems to have the same idea and beats you to every pick, than go to plan B and pick players from the team you think will be the finalist (or at least make the Bronze medal game).

Next week, we’ll take a closer look at some possible sleeper Olympic fantasy picks.

NHL: Top 30 Scorers Fenwick/Corsi by Game

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 21:44:28 +0000

It’s been written that a picture is worth 1000 words.

If that’s true, then this is going to be a 30,000 word blog post .. if there ever was one. This is actually going to be around 30,500, but hey, who’s counting.

Before presenting the following, a little explanation is in order.

The hockey world (fuelled by bloggers and math nerdlingers) is breaking new ground with the ability to analyze players and using technology to better capture the nuances missed in game to game situations.

Websites like Gabe Desjardins Behind the Net and David Johnson Hockey Analysis have become valuable resources to decipher the numbers and put meaning to the way player’s performance is analyzed.

Two of the measures act as a proxy for a team’s possession of the puck, providing estimates of player’s time with the puck. A good primer for advanced stats is here (and I will delve more into using analytics in this space here on McKeen’s)

Corsi (a stat named after Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi) is a ratio measuring shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots fired at the opposition net, over the same criteria fired upon the players own net. JP at Japers Rink has a good introduction to the statistic and Broad Street Hockey advances the discussion with a comprehensive look at Advanced stats over a series of posts.

The logic dictates that the team that has greater possession of the puck will likely be firing upon the opposition’s goal rather than a player’s own goal is a signal to indicate that team has puck possession.

Fenwick is a similar measure, however it removes the blocked shots, while still providing a ratio of shots on goal and missed shots. The measure is defined here from Raw Charge – a Tampa Bay Lightning blog on SB Nation:

Fenwick: Measure of shots for and missed shots for as a percentage of all shots taken. Used more for teams than players. Often divided into game situation : Score-tied, 1-up, 1-down, 2-up, 2-down, 3-up, 3-down. This is because teams that are behind tend to shoot more than teams that are ahead, and the further behind they are the more pronounced this "score effect" is. It's so pronounced after falling 3 behind that everything goes out the window and there's no real point in separating it out any further.

Fenwick is also occasionally divided by period, as shooting tendencies change the further into a game one gets.

Fenwick measures tend to be more predictive of win-loss records for a season than Corsi measures, but Corsi is better for short-term analysis of puck possession, as it includes more events and so accounts for outliers (randomness) better. Just remember Fenwick = teams, long-term; Corsi = players and teams, shorter-term.

*********
These measures are more indicative of trends and apply for better use over greater sample sizes, but I was curious to see the game-to-game effects of both Corsi and Fenwick measures.

To do that, I was able to get all the game data from timeonice.com measuring each game’s corsi and fenwick events broken down by each individual components. An example is here, using the Leafs and Sabres game from March 21, 2013

After compiling all the data for each individual game, I was able to put together a game-by-game look at the differences of each measure, by team and then by player.

This is where the 30,000 words come into play. The following is a visual representation of the top-30 scorers in the NHL (as of Mar 22, 2013) based on their individual Corsi and Fenwick measures on a game-to-game basis. Note the numbers across the horizontal axis are the game numbers assigned by the NHL.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey