Clarke MacArthur – McKeen's Hockey

McKeen’s 17-18 Yearbook Updates

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:20:54 +0000

It is early in the pre-season, but Ryan Dadoun brings a round up of the news so far. Nothing earth shattering, but lots to keep an eye on. McKeen's will do an update end of day Monday based on injuries, camp performance, etc.

In the meantime here is what you need to know.

Anaheim

Hampus Lindholm – Shoulder injury will probably keep him out until early November. That’s not surprising given the initial projections from when he had surgery in May, but it’s his absence is more probable now than it was over the summer.

Ryan Kesler – The hope is to have him back by Christmas after he underwent hip surgery in June. Over the summer it looked like he might be back in November, so the recent news here has been discouraging.

Antoine Vermette – Might end up being the one to fill the void left by Kesler. He’s been practicing on a line with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. If we’re talking about standard fantasy leagues though, Vermette’s value is still borderline at best.

Arizona

Jason Demers – The Coyotes acquired him from the Florida Panthers. Arizona views him as a top-four defenseman, but it’s not clear who his defensive partner will be. He got a decent, but not great, amount of power-play time in Florida last season while Keith Yandle/Aaron Ekblad served as the team’s primary defensive options with the man advantage and he’ll probably end up in a similar situation in Arizona behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Alex Goligoski when it comes to power-play ice time.

Boston

Torey Krug – He suffered a non-displaced jaw fracture on Tuesday and was projected to miss at least three weeks from that date. That will cost him most of training camp and at least three regular season games.

Buffalo

Alexander Nylander – He suffered a lower-body injury on Sept. 8 and hasn’t skated at all in training camp as a result. Good news is that the Sabres think he’ll resume skating in near future, so maybe he’ll still return with enough time to spare to make his case for a roster spot.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – More of a side note for now, but he’s been dealing with an undisclosed problem that might be more serious than initially believed. He has soreness in his hip/back and had an MRI on Thursday, so we’ll see what the results of that are.

Detroit

Andreas Athanasiou – Still hasn’t signed. There’s the threat of him heading to the KHL and even if he does re-sign in the not too distant future, he’ll be a young player that’s missed a good chunk of training camp/preseason play.

Edmonton

Ryan Strome – It’s a bit of a stretch to mention at this stage, but the Oilers seem to be going with a top line of Maroon, McDavid, and Strome so far. As a fun aside, McDavid also thinks Strome is a good sleeper pick in fantasy leagues. (https://www.nhl.com/news/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-sees-ryan-strome-as-fantasy-sleeper/c-290885390?tid=277729150)

Drake Caggiula – Similarly, it might be too early to read into it, but so far Drake Caggiula is being tested on the second line with Draisaitl and Lucic.

Los Angeles

Marian Gaborik – Is taking some contact as he recovers from a knee injury. Still unclear if he’ll play in the preseason, but it’s progress.

Nashville

Ryan Ellis – This happened a couple weeks before training camp, so you probably already have it in your projections, but just in case he’s out for four-to-six months with a knee injury. That has led to them mixing up their defensive pairings though. Ekholm and Subban were split up so that Ekholm is now with Josi (although Ekholm-Weber has also been experimented with) and Subban is with newcomer Emelin.

New Jersey

MONTREAL, QC - SEPTEMBER 21: New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) waits for play to begin during the third period of the NHL preseason game between the New Jersey Devils and the Montreal Canadiens on September 21, 2017, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Nico Hischier – Another stretch, but for what it’s worth Nico Hischier has stood out in preseason games so far, upping what were already good odds of him making the team. Hynes suggested that Hischier has forced talks of him having a bigger role than previously projected. Hischier-Hall is an interesting combo, though of course it’s another preseason pairing so who knows.

NY Islanders

Alan Quine – Quine sustained an upper-body injury in mid-September that was projected to cost him four-to-six weeks. So he’s missing training camp and a couple weeks of the regular season in all likelihood.

Ottawa

Colin White – Suffered a broken left wrist on Monday and is projected to miss six-to-eight weeks. He had been seen as being in a good position to make the team, especially due to Derick Brassard being a question mark. Although…

Derick Brassard – His recovery from shoulder surgery is ahead of schedule, per what Guy Boucher said today. He still might not be ready for the start of the regular season.

Clarke MacArthur – Unfortunately even after his strong playoff showing, he ended up failing his physical. Sucks to say, but it may be that his playing career is over.

Erik Karlsson – As of Thursday he still wasn’t skating due to his foot injury. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and who knows if he’ll be begin the curve once he finally is given the green light to play.

Philadelphia

Travis Sanheim – It’s still tentative, but he’s off to a good start and seems to have improved his chances of making the team. Had 10 goals and 37 points in the AHL last season.

Sean Couturier – The Flyers are toying with using Claude Giroux as a left winger. Couturier could be the beneficiary if that happens as he could move up in the depth charts as a result, possibly even on a line with Giroux and Jakub Voracek (which they did test out in practice, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually use it in games).

St. Louis

Zach Sanford – Suffered a dislocated left shoulder that will keep him sidelined for the next five-to-six months.

Jay Bouwmeester – Has a fractured left ankle that will be re-evaluated in three weeks. Along with Sanford, these ones are fringe just because they didn’t have much in the way of fantasy value even when healthy.

Alexander Steen – Suffered a hand injury in the Blues’ first preseason game on Tuesday that will cost him at least three weeks (at which point he’ll be re-evaluated). Certainly he’s the most noteworthy of the three fantasy wise.

Toronto

Patrick Marleau – It’s looking like Patrick Marleau won’t play alongside Matthews in even strength as Babcock’s preference appears to be a trio of Zach Hyman, Matthews, and William Nylander. Marleau and Matthews should share the ice in power play situations though.

Joffrey Lupul – Team’s says he failed his physical, but now it looks like the league wants to look into it after Lupul’s claim of cheating followed by his retraction(deletion)/apology. Probably doesn’t matter fantasy-wise either way. Even if Lupul is deemed fit to play he’ll probably end up in the AHL at most.

Vegas

James Neal – Has a broken hand that was projected to sideline him for two-to-four weeks. He’s one week into that timetable at this point so perhaps he’ll be okay for the season opener. Still sucks to miss training camp on a brand new team though.

Washington

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 16: Washington Capitals left wing Jakub Vrana (13) makes a pass during an NHL game on March 16, 2017, at the Verizon Center, in Washington, D.C. between the Washington Capitals and the Nashville Predators. Nashville won 2-1 in overtime.
(Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

Jakub Vrana – More grain of salt stuff, but the Capitals have been giving him top-six opportunities. He played alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov in Wednesday’s preseason game and tonight it looks like he’ll be with Backstrom and Oshie (Kuznetsov/Ovechkin aren’t playing).

Winnipeg

Tyler Myers – Feels 100% after only playing in 11 games last season.

2016 NHL Draft Guide: Vancouver Canucks Draft Strategy

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 24 Jun 2016 18:21:36 +0000

09 Apr 2016; Vancouver Canucks forward Jake Virtanen (18) against the Edmonton Oilers

Eric Crawford, the man who led the previous two Canucks drafts, seeing the team select strong two-way forwards with offensive upside in Jarred McCann (recently traded to Florida for Erik Gudbranson in a multi-player deal), Jake Virtanen and Brock Boeser, is now a pro scout with Montreal. His position, as Director of Player Personnel, does not seem to have been filled. Instead, the Canucks look to have a four-headed management team with their fingers on the amateur draft. GM Jim Benning is long known for his scouting acumen, having held key personnel roles with the Bruins before being hired by Vancouver. Judd Brackett is the new Director of Amateur Scouting. He has significant background working both the QMJHL and USHL. There are also two “Chief” amateur scouts in Ron Delorme and Thomas Gradin, the former focusing on North America and the latter on Europe. They preside over a network of 18 amateur scouts.

April 09, 2016: Brock Boeser (16) of North Dakota rushes through the neutral zone during the 2016 NCAA Frozen Four championship game between North Dakota and Quinnipiac

In light of the newness of this management structure, looking at previous Canucks drafts – even though Delorme and Gradin had both ranked highly in the organization for many years – is less instructive than finding a type of player that is attractive to Benning. He spent eight years as the Director of Amateur Scouting for the Buffalo Sabres, covering drafts from 1999-2006. During that period, the Sabres drafts were very much hit and miss. On the positive end, early picks were used on relative successes like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, Keith Ballard, and Daniel Paille. On the negative, other first round selections under Benning included Barrett Heisten, Artyom Kryukov, Marek Zagrapan and Denis Persson. To Benning’s credit, there were also a number of mid- and late-round finds, including Ryan Miller, Paul Gaustad, Andrej Sekera, Clarke MacArthur and Jan Hejda. Since taking over in Vancouver, Benning’s Canucks have drafted heavily out of the CHL, but have not hesitated to select Europeans from any major hockey playing nation, and as the Boeser pick proved, the USHL is also a possibility. Big players are the norm, but the Canucks have also used one pick in each of the past three drafts on an undersized blueliner, with some early success in Jordan Subban, Gustav Forsling and Guillaume Brisebois. Also notable is that all of their first round picks in the Benning age have been used on forwards.

USA NTDP u18 vs Sioux City Musketeers

Possible picks: In all honesty, I don’t think the Canucks will pigeon-hole themselves into any specific position or player type in the early going. There is no reason for them not to select the best player on their board at fifth overall. That might be Olli Juolevi, or Alexander Nylander and Michael McLeod would also not be too surprising, if not one of the other available centers in Clayton Keller or Logan Brown. With their remaining six picks, I expect the Canucks to spread their nets as wide as possible and draft from different areas. Tyler Benson or Jonathan Dahlen would be great ‘gets’ in the second round, but their draft board will not be easy to read. Also a possibility is the Canucks trading more late rounds picks as sweeteners in various NHL trades.

A ‘Close’ Analysis of Jason Spezza

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 16 May 2014 18:35:53 +0000

I started looking at the Ottawa Senators for the McKeen’s Hockey Yearbook recently setting up my database to filter specifically for Senators criteria. The game watching and scouting notes are one component but it isn’t a focus for the purpose of this writing.

I do this with every team before getting into the meat of the player analysis giving me a proper representation of high-level team performance before micro-analyzing player contributions.

While going through some high level charts, I noticed a fairly interesting pattern for the soon to be departed, Jason Spezza (if one’s to believe the chatter surrounding the Sens captain). In particular, the effect from the 2001 1st round selection (2nd overall) in close games especially in comparison to the second line of Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur and Bobby Ryan.

Spezza spent most of his 5v5 playing time alongside Milan Michalek (680 minutes) with a revolving third to round out the line. Of the 627 minutes Spezza spent in games close (comprising about 62% of his 5v5 time and 25% of the Sens total games close ice time) 350 minutes were with Michalek on his flank. Games close is comprised of the score within 1 goal in the first two periods or tied in the 3rd.

This table below shows the breakdown of time on ice at 5v5 and in games close. The last two columns are the percentage of total team time spent in 5v5 and in games close. Spezza spent approximately 26% of his 5v5 time in games close. The Tied/Lead/Trail % is the percentage of time on the ice in those game situations.

Player	5v5	5v5 Close	close %	Tied%	Lead%	Trail%	% of Tm 5v5 Ice time	% of Tm 5v5 Close
JASON SPEZZA	1002:12	627:51	62.65	36.81	28.35	34.84	26.38	25.98
MILAN MICHALEK	1048:49	667:14	63.62	38.81	28.44	32.75	27.61	27.61
KYLE TURRIS	1112:18	704:08	63.3	39.44	29.02	31.54	29.28	29.14
CLARKE MACARTHUR	1004:09	643:18	64.06	40.12	29.73	30.15	26.43	26.62
BOBBY RYAN	937:22	562:40	60.03	35.73	28	36.26	24.67	23.28

Let’s go into the charts, starting with the Senators charts overall.

The charts are visual representations of the Senators 5v5 10-game rolling moving average Corsi For% and PDO (with accompanying games close numbers). In addition, (with more comprehensive data) is the elemental breakdown of the team’s PDO into its base components, on-ice save- and shooting percentage for a micro investigation of each component’s overall effect. By a degree of extension, I added shot differential. Once again, this is at 5v5 and in games close.

The graph on the left is the CF% and PDO breakdown and the graph on the right is the PDO core components. Pay attention to the ‘close’ lines and notice the overlap within the time period of mid-November through to the trade deadline (click to enlarge the images).

The second graph (right) represents PDO in its core components; on-ice save percentage and shooting % and I’ve added 5v5 shot differential.

The theory here is the games 'close' line should be above the overall lines. A higher close line represents the score effects that drag down the leading team’s overall Corsi. Strong performance when games are close likely results in leads and teams then have a tendency to play prevent, allowing the opposition to rack up shot attempts against and in turn increasing their Corsi through score effects, while reducing the leading team's Corsi. Conversely, a team that's get's behind will have a lower CF% close and then the opposite description, racking up shot attempts and increasing the Corsi rate (and line).

I've included the individual charts for Spezza, Michalek, Turris, MacArthur and Ryan.

Look at Spezza’s CF% close line how it hovers above the CF% overall percentage after mid-November. That piqued my interest with the interpretation that he was effective with games close. Splitting his on-ice stats is even more telling and the addition of Hemsky after the trade deadline was killer. Spezza’s Corsi jumped to 56.9% alongside Hemsky.

I've included Michalek his most consistent linemate, where the images tend to mirror each other.

Now, lets contrast that to the Turris, MacArthur & Ryan line with attention to the 'close' line.

First Turris.

Then Bobby Ryan who had season-ending sports hernia surgery towards the end of March.

Last is former Sabres, Thrashers and Leafs winger, Clarke MacArthur.

The common theme for all of them is the CF% overall line hovering above the CF% close – less so for MacArthur than for the other two linemates. That line was the driving force early in the season, but seemed to sputter after mid-November until after the trade deadline.

There were three distinct periods to the season that we could break into for a deeper look at the player’s impact. Jason Spezza missed four games at the end of the calendar year and it coincided with the Sens Corsi leveling after a period of ascension and slight correction. I split the season into these three markers:

Nov 17 – Jan 2, 2014

Jan 4, 2014 – Mar 2, 2014 (trade deadline)

Mar 4 – end of the regular season

Isolating the season into those three components, I took the average CF% and CF%close, along with PDO (close) and the core components. I included total goals for and against (overall and close) with a summary of the Spezza/Michalek pairing (along with Hemsky in the third period after his acquisition from Edmonton) and the Turris, Ryan, MacArthur line.

Period 1

During this period, Spezza/Michalek averaged a 56% Corsi close, with the Turris line hovering at about 46.8%, a sizeable difference. Goaltending via on-ice save percentage and a low on-ice shooting percentage played a big part here for the pairing as the Turris line shot at a better rate, while receiving average goaltending in games close, with above average overall at 5v5.

It’s more of the same in the next period and confirming the CF% line in the charts above for the Spezza/Michalek pairing. I chose the trade deadline, not only because of the convenience, but this was also the final period before the addition of Ales Hemsky, acquired from Edmonton, that had a distinct impact flanking Spezza.

Period 2

There’s still a considerable gap between the pairing and the Turris line. A 6% difference is fairly substantial, while goaltending buoyed the Turris line, they scored almost two-thirds of their total offense after the game changed from close to blowouts. The Spezza/Michalek pairing averaged on-ice save percentage of .894 close and .874 overall, yet scored 14 of their 19 goals in games close situations – with 50% of their goals against during ‘close’ game situations as well – relative to the Turris line having almost one-third of their goals-against during games close.

Period 3

The final period is directly after the trade deadline, with the distinction of the addition of Hemsky.

Hemsky’s impact was special from those that watched him in Senators silks, but these numbers show just how significant he was, leading the way with a 59.3% Corsi close. The Turris line (sans Bobby Ryan towards the end) blew up soon after the deadline, with a 54.1% Corsi close, still not eclipsed by the Spezza line at 58.4% overall. They also enjoyed the most productive period in terms of shooting percentage overall, with the close average hovering around the 8% mark.

courtesy www.montrealgazette.com

Kyle Turris had his breakout year, clearly becoming an important component up the middle for the Sens, flanked by two players that bring a distinct skill set, Ryan as a shooter and MacArthur as a support player. The former played injured for the majority of the season – that may have affected his overall numbers after a killer start – while MacArthur blended into the scenery for periods at a time.

The most consistent element for the Senators forward was Jason Spezza who along with Milan Michalek contributed the most during the most important periods of the game. Losing Spezza, as the rumors would indicate of a potential trade out of Ottawa is going to be a substantial blow to the offense. Losing both Spezza and Michalek even more detrimental.

Then there’s Hemsky.

Even if Mika Zibenajad is capable of filling the void, I’d be somewhat weary of the immediate impact and whether the Sens could create offense if teams key in to the Turris line and effectively shut them down.

According to this micro-study, Spezza isn’t replaceable with anyone on the current roster, within the system, and they won’t recoup the loss through any potential trade.

In short, should the Senators trade Jason Spezza and let Michalek walk as a UFA, without improvements in goaltending or blueline upgrades in 2014-15, Spezza’s replacement could very well potentially become Connor McDavid.

Data sources:

timeonice.com

stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Extraskater.com

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