Clayton Keller – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – PLAYOFF EDITION – Less obvious players to target

Scott Cullen — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 14:49:24 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a look some less obvious players to target for playoff pools.

1 It’s not like a top scorer on the Stanley Cup favourites is going to be some bargain, but Martin Necas heads into the playoffs on a tear. Necas came out of the Olympic break producing on a higher level, scoring 38 points (16 G, 22 A) with 82 shots on goal in 26 games down the stretch. He’s riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and Arttur Lehkonen on the top line and obviously getting first unit power play time, too. Not a surprise pick, but more a reminder not to overlook how great this player has been this season.

2 While the Los Angeles Kings keep getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs and they have the daunting matchup against the Avalanche in the first round, but Adrian Kempe is a consistent stud in the playoffs. Since the Olympic break, Kempe has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) and 70 shots on goal in 25 games. In the past four playoffs, he has put up 29 points (15 G, 14 A) with 106 shots on goal in 24 games. He has been an elite playoff performer, and it gets overlooked because it only comes in one round bursts.

3 The Minnesota Wild have tried time and again to find a different centre for their top line, but they have returned Ryan Hartman to that role, skating between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and he finished the regular season with 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 39 shots on goal in the last 13 games. That’s already encouraging but consider that he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) and 42 shots on goal in 17 games across his last three playoff appearances. The Wild have a tough matchup against Dallas in the first round, but Hartman is an intriguing player to watch in the postseason.

4 Future Hall of Famers don’t tend to get overlooked, but it’s always worth noting when a player has taken their game to a new level. Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson came back from the Olympics and delivered 31 points (11 G, 20 A) with 68 shots on goal in 24 games. Insane production from a 35-year-old. He has 34 points (4 G, 30 A) with 104 shots on goal in 38 games across his last two playoff appearances, though this will be his first postseason appearance since 2018-2019.

5 One of the most exciting young teams in the league, the Montreal Canadiens have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, but it’s not going to be an easy path for the Lightning, either. Since the Olympic break, captain Nick Suzuki ranks fifth in the league with 36 points (11 G, 25 A) in 25 games, Cole Caufield leads the league with 19 goals in 24 games, and Juraj Slafkovsky is tied for 18th with 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in 25 games. It’s early in the team’s trajectory for the Canadiens to go on a long playoff run, especially considering their mediocre possession numbers, but if their young stars show up, they could do some damage.

6 The Utah Mammoth are making their first playoff appearance and, like the Canadiens, have a group of skilled forwards that can make a difference. Clayton Keller had 34 points (9 G, 25 A) in 25 games after the Olympic break, Dylan Guenther added 26 points (25 G, 11 A) and 64 shots on goal in 24 games, and Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz, and Mikhail Sergachev each had at least 20 points. They may not have the playoff experience of the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Mammoth have some players who could make the first-round series very interesting.

7 One of the more remarkable parts of Boston’s strong finish to the regular season was the production that they received from veterans Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson, two players who have had very solid careers but performed like stars down the stretch. Zacha finished the regular season with 28 points (15 G, 13 A) and 44 shots on goal in 24 games. That is dependent on an inflated shooting percentage, but it’s fantastic production from a player who is not a star. Similarly, Arvidsson had 26 points (11 G, 15 A) with 51 shots on goal in his last 24 games.

8 While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin draw most of the attention in Pittsburgh, the wingers in the supporting cast should not be ignored, especially since the Penguins have a chance to advance beyond the first round. Bryan Rust tied his career high with 65 points (29 G, 36 A) this season, finishing with 25 points and 57 shots on goal in 23 games after the Olympic break. He’s not the only one. Rickard Rakell played a bunch of centre, especially when Crosby was injured, and he had 23 points (13 G, 10 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 20 games.

9 Two of Kyle Dubas’ best acquisitions in the past year played a big part in Pittsburgh reaching the postseason. Egor Chinakhov flashed potential with the Columbus Blue Jackets a couple of years ago, when he had 29 points (16 G, 13 A) in 53 games, but he struggled to get going at the start of this season and the Penguins swooped in, getting him for a second-round pick. They watched him grow into a role as a legitimate scoring winger who tallied 32 points (15 G, 17 A) with 86 shots on goal in his last 33 games.

10 A 20 Fantasy Poins favourite, Anthony Mantha played just 13 games last season in Calgary before tearing his ACL. The Penguins signed him as a free agent, to a one-year, $2.5 million deal that was almost assuredly intended to make him very tradeable once he proved that he could still play. He did that quickly, generating 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 23 shots on goal in his first 12 games and then, as the Penguins continued to win, it became apparent that there would be little upside to trading a winger who was filling the net. He finished the season by scoring 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in his last 19 games on his way to career highs of 33 goals and 64 points. He has zero goals in 14 career playoff games, so this year presents a prime opportunity for Mantha to net his first postseason goal.

11 Dallas Stars veteran Matt Duchene suffered an upper-body injury early in the season, and he struggled, but once he got healthy, and then the Stars needed him to play a bigger role as injuries decimated their forward group. Duchene finished the season with 34 points (12 G, 22 A) and 54 shots on goal in his last 31 games. The shot rate is not ideal, but his role on the top power play unit and skating between Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque on the Stars’ second line is very encouraging. Bourque is starting to unlock his potential, too, putting up 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 44 shots on goal in 23 games since the beginning of March.

12 The Ottawa Senators have the profile of a contending team, so even though they are facing a relentless Carolina Hurricanes squad, they should not be considered pushovers. Part of the reason to like the Sens is their scoring depth. Since the Olympic break, Drake Batherson has put up 22 points (14 G, 8 A) with 55 shots on goal in 25 games, lifting him to career highs of 33 goals and 71 points on the season.

13 Everyone is aware of Boston Bruins defenceman Charlie McAvoy. He played for Team USA at the Olympics and has been in the Top 10 of Norris Trophy voting three times in his career, but part of what he is known for is being a standout defender who does not pad his production with power play points. It’s not that he never played the power play, but it wasn’t the foundation of his production like it is for some other defenders. In the second half of the season, as the Bruins pushed for a playoff spot, McAvoy turned into one of those point-producing blueliners. In his last 41 games, McAvoy accrued 42 points (10 G, 32 A) with 66 shots on goal and 14 of those 42 points came on the power play.

14 The Philadelphia Flyers made a late charge to get into the playoffs, in part fueled by 2025 No. 6 pick Porter Martone, who scored 50 points (25 G, 25 A) in 35 games as a freshman at Michigan State then signed with the Flyers when his collegiate season was done. Martone did not waste any time upon turning pro, as he produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 32 shots on goal and 16 hits in nine games. He’s a ready-made power forward and is one of the biggest reasons for the Flyers to be a threat against the Penguins in the first round.

15 The Carolina Hurricanes put pressure on their opponents from the drop of the opening puck and part of what makes it work is that they get contributions from secondary players. Look at the line of veteran left winger Taylor Hall skating with younger players Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven. Hall has 21 points (6 G, 15 A) and 42 shots on goal in 23 games since the Olympic break, Stankoven finished the regular season with 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal during an 8-game point streak, and Blake had 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 32 shots on goal in his last 14 games.

16 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jackson LaCombe has seen his stock rise in the past few seasons, but this will be his first appearance in the playoffs. In the second half of the season, LaCombe contributed 35 points (4 G, 31 A) with 66 shots on goal in 41 games. The arrival of John Carlson at the trade deadline didn’t hurt LaCombe either, as he had 17 points (4 G, 13 A) in 21 games after the trade.

17 The Los Angeles Kings are fighting uphill, facing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round, but if they are going to have success, they may need a breakthrough performance from centre Quinton Byfield, who struggled to score consistently this season, but then finished with 16 points (11 G, 5 A) and 45 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Byfield’s right winger, Alex Laferriere brings the heavy physical game that should work in the postseason and Laferriere had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 47 shots on goal and 60 hits in his last 16 games of the regular season.

18 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Sean Walker has surged offensively down the stretch. Since the Olympic break, Walker has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 55 shots on goal in 24 games, and he doesn’t depend on the man advantage to get his points as only one of his 31 points this season came via the power play.

19 Heading into the playoffs, here are some goaltenders that finished the season strong. Since the Olympic break, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes was 11-5 with a .916 save percentage. Colorado’s Scott Wedgewood was 11-2-1 with a .945 save percentage, which becomes interesting because Mackenzie Blackwood struggled. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was 11-2-1 with a .920 save percentage, and Boston’s Jeremy Swayman was 9-6-1 with a .918 save percentage. Kings goaltender Anton Forsberg was 7-5 with a .914 save percentage, which is notable because Darcy Kuemper also had trouble down the stretch.

20 On the other hand, these goaltenders had trouble late in the season that could pose challenges in the playoffs. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka 11-6-1 but his save percentage was .883. Mackenzie Blackwood was 7-5-1 with a .884 save percentage. Carolina’s Frederik Andersen has had a tough season and finished with a 9-4 record but a .879 save percentage in his last 13 games. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal was 9-7-2 with a .868 save percentage down the stretch. Kuemper was 5-3-6 with a .867 save percentage and Carolina’s Brandon Bussi was 8-3-1 with a .865 save percentage.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – UTAH MAMMOTH – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 19:43:53 +0000

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - JANUARY 11: Utah Hockey Club Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev (98) as seen during an NHL game between The New York Islanders and The Utah Hockey Club on January 11, 2025 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT. (Photo by Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire)

In the franchise’s first season in Utah, after moving the roster (if not the team, officially) from Arizona, Utah finished with 89 points (38-31-13), missing the playoffs, but there were some encouraging signs. The Utah Hockey Club had the underlying numbers of a contender, ranking sixth in Corsi percentage (53.5) and fifth in expected goals percentage (53.9). They ranked 13th with 8.06 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, and 17th with 7.47 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. Unfortunately, they did not have the goaltending to reach the postseason. Karel Vejmelka appeared in 58 games, and played well, but Connor Ingram struggled before re-entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and Utah didn’t have any great options otherwise, leading to Vejmelka handling a heavier-than-expected workload.

What’s Changed?

Utah got busy in the offseason, naming the team the Mammoth, and taking a big swing in the trade market, sending defenceman Michael Kesselring and right winger Josh Doan to the Buffalo Sabres for winger J.J. Peterka, who adds an up-and-coming scorer to the Mammoth roster. Utah signed free agent right winger Brandon Tanev as well as Stanley Cup champion defenceman Nate Schmidt. They also inked goaltender Vitek Vanecek, who provides insurance behind Vejmelka if Ingram is unable to return to action. Winger Matias Maccelli was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs and veteran centre Nick Bjugstad signed with the St. Louis Blues as a free agent. The move for Peterka was an indication that the Mammoth are not going to be shy about doing what it takes to make the team better.

What would success look like?

A playoff berth would have to count as success, since the previous iteration of the franchise, the Arizona Coyotes, reached the playoffs just once in their last 12 seasons in the desert. There is a quality core of forward talent that can take this team to the postseason, but the questions will land on defence and in goal, where depth could be an issue. It doesn’t appear as though the Coyotes are ready to be real contenders, but earning a playoff spot in that challenging Central Division would be a successful season and it’s not some ridiculous pipedream to believe that they can get there.

What could go wrong?

Last season could have gone much worse for Utah if Vejmelka had not played so well so, like most teams, the Mammoth can ill afford to have subpar goaltending. They do have a few stars that are probably harder to replace, like defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is hugely important and with the moderate level of blueline talent behind him, an injury to their top defenceman could be devastating. Utah’s improved depth could help them overcome an injury or two up front, but this team is still working on relatively thin margins, so a few bad bounces, unfortunate injuries, or subpar goaltending could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Third-year centre Logan Cooley has to be the pick here, even after a relatively high on-ice shooting percentage last season, because he is poised to be the No. 1 centre for Utah, which would mean playing with left winger Clayton Keller, who just put up 90 points (30 G, 60 A) last season, so that kind of opportunity raises the ceiling for Cooley who, in his own right, is a dynamic offensive talent. If there is chemistry with Keller, Cooley may just continue his upward scoring trend.

FORWARDS

Clayton Keller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	34	56	90	1.13

A talented playmaking winger, Keller put up a career-high 90 points (30 G, 60 A), continuing to provide offense at an elite level. In the past three seasons, he has 252 points (100 G, 152 A) in 241 games, ranking 16th in the league in that time. Keller is on the smaller side and plays according to his strengths. He only had 11 hits last season, his lowest total since his rookie season in 2017-2018, but he thrives in open space, whether it’s in transition or on the power play, where he can set up on the half wall and direct the play from there, either as a setup man or launching one-timers. His 37 power play points last season was tied for third, behind only Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. Keller uses his quickness to create space from which he generates offensive opportunities, with the element of surprise working in his favour. Keller is a highly skilled player whose puckhandling makes him a challenge for defenders and goaltenders alike when left in a one-on-one situation. With Keller established as a legitimate star player for the newly named Mammoth, now is the time for the team to build a quality supporting cast around him, so that he can continue to deliver on the offensive end. While Keller is not necessarily noted for his defensive acumen, the puck was moving the right way when he was on the ice in 2024-2025; last season he had a 54 percent Corsi with 53.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. If the supporting cast can continue to get better, then Keller should be a prime offensive threat in 2025-2026. It would be fair to expect 30-35 goals and 85-90 points, with a chance to challenge 100 points if he has good fortune in terms of percentages.

Logan Cooley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	47	76	0.93

Drafted third overall in 2022, Cooley took a big step forward in his second NHL season, jumping from 44 points (20 G, 24 A) in 82 games in 2023-2024 to 65 points (25 G, 40 A) in 75 games last season. The name of the game for Cooley is speed, as he uses his acceleration to separate from defenders and create dangerous opportunities off the rush. He plays with an offensively aggressive mindset, so he’s not afraid to go to the net when the opportunity presents itself and seeing what he has accomplished through his first two seasons offers a tantalizing glimpse into his potential. At the same time, there is still room for improvement. While Cooley had a 50.4 percent Corsi in his sophomore season, up by three percent over his rookie campaign, his relative numbers were down 2.2 percent from the previous season. Some of that may be that Utah had more all-around talent so other lines also pushed play, but if he is going to be the star that he appears he can, he should not be trailing others when it comes to controlling play. Cooley remains a work in progress in the faceoff circle, but did improve, going from a winning percentage of 38.0 percent as a rookie to 44.7 percent last season. With an expectation that Cooley spends most of his time skating on a line with Keller, the young center’s production should continue to ascend but projections need to take into account that his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 11.7 percent, a mark that he is highly unlikely to duplicate in 2025-2026. As such, 25 goals and 65-70 points is a fair possibility and while it might not seem like much of an increase, he could use power play production to offset a likely five-on-five regression.

J.J. Peterka

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	34	64	0.78

Coming off a season in which he racked up a career-high 68 points (27 G, 41A) for the Buffalo Sabres, Peterka insisted on getting moved and was highly sought after as a 23-year-old winger just coming into his prime. Utah stepped up, sending Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to the Sabres to complete the deal and then signed Peterka to a new five-year, $38.5 million contract. His arrival in Utah gives the Mammoth another legitimate high-end offensive talent and it could be the type of move that lifts them into postseason contention. Coming from Buffalo, Peterka does not have playoff experience, but he has shown well when playing for Germany at the World Championships. He compiled 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 18 games during the 2023 and 2024 World Championships and was named the top forward at the 2023 event. While Peterka certainly appears to be on the upswing in his career, there should be some caution exercised because his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 14.2 percent, an unsustainably high number that was the highest in the league among forwards that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes. So, while the tendency might be to lean towards optimism for Peterka, it is going to be difficult to overcome that likely statistical regression. That being the case, it’s fair to expect him to challenge 30 goals and 65 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Dylan Guenther

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	32	35	67	0.85

Drafted ninth overall in 2021, Guenther signed an eight-year, $57.14 million contract prior to last season and while it seemed like a major commitment to a player who had played a total of 78 NHL games to that point, Guenther quickly showed that it could be money well spent as he busted out with 27 goals and 60 points last season, showcasing a lightning-quick release that figures to serve him well for many years. There are so many NHL players who can really shoot the puck with authority that for the rare ones to stand out in that crowd there must be something special there and listening to teammates talk about Guenther’s shot, it appears that he is on a rare tier. The next step is to take more advantage of his shot during five-on-five play because Guenther has scored 51 goals in his NHL career and 25 of them have come via the power play. There is the possibility now that Guenther has enough experience to slide up the depth chart so that he could play first line at even strength, which should help him increase his even-strength scoring, because if it means playing with Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, those are two very skilled linemates. Expect Guenther to continue his career ascent in 2025-2026. It would be entirely fair to expect him to hit 30 goals and 65 points.

Nick Schmaltz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

In the past four seasons, Schmaltz has ranked between 58 and last season’s career-high 63 points, producing at a consistent level, though there is an obvious argument that scoring 58 and 59 points in 63 games, as he did in 2022-2023 is better than 63 points in 82 games, as he did last season. Schmaltz is a talented playmaker who has gradually become more comfortable shooting the puck. He’s still not firing indiscriminately towards the opposing net, but 2.27 shots on goal per game last season got him to 20 goals even with a shooting percentage of 10.9 percent, which was well below his career mark, which was 14.2 percent going into last season. With sound offensive instincts and good puck skills, Schmaltz is a strong complementary player to Clayton Keller, though both of them are quite reluctant to get involved in physical play, as Schmaltz accrued just 14 hits last season. As the Mammoth improve their talent, Schmaltz could slide into a second line role, where he would still have plenty of opportunity to generate offense, but may also be split away from Keller. Knowing how consistently Schmaltz has contributed to the offense in recent seasons, it’s fair to expect something similar, maybe in the range of 20 goals and 55-60 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Barrett Hayton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	28	46	0.56

It sure seemed like a reach when the Arizona Coyotes drafted Hayton fifth overall in 2018, but they gave him ample opportunity to prove that he could play in a scoring role and what ultimately appears to have happened is that he has shown he can be a capable second-line center. He hit career highs with 20 goals, 26 assists, and 46 points last season while playing a little over 16 minutes per game. That has Hayton fitting into the Utah lineup just behind Logan Cooley on the center depth chart. Hayton has good speed to create opportunities and will go the net to generate chances, but the lack of consistency in his career makes it difficult to expect him playing higher in the lineup if the team has more viable options. At the same time, while his offensive numbers have never really taken off, Hayton has turned into a puck possession monster the past couple of seasons, earning 57.9 percent Corsi and 57.9 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play over the past two seasons. So, on one hand, the point production isn’t quite what is needed from a first-line center, but his two-way play has evolved to the point that he is a strong option as a second-line center and with the Mammoth improving their team depth, that means that Hayton should have quality wingers to play with this season. He should be able to contribute 15-20 goals and 40 points.

Lawson Crouse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	16	31	0.39

After three consecutive seasons with at least 20 goals, Crouse saw his role decrease dramatically as the team moved to Utah last season, with his average ice time per game falling from 16:49 in 2023-2024 to 13:44 per game last season. His production plummeted, too, and he managed a dozen goals and 18 points. The category that Crouse could trade on, in terms of fantasy value, has always been hits. He peaked at 288 hits in 2018-2019 and still registered 193 hits in his diminished role last season. When he was scoring 20 goals and recording 175 hits, there was clear fantasy value to Crouse’s production, but last season’s decline made it far less appealing. With his size and physical presence, Crouse should be valuable in the modern NHL, because he can battle the biggest defenders and handle himself if a fight is needed, but he has also grown as a player to fill a complementary role, capable of finishing chances around the net. His most common linemates last season were Jack McBain, Nick Bjugstad, and Josh Doan. Crouse had quite a bit of success with the since-traded Doan, controlling 62.7 percent of expected goals and outscoring opponents 16-10, but it should be an indication that Crouse is a strong complementary option alongside more skilled playmakers. That should give at least some hope that Crouse can bounce back in 2025-2026, so expect 15-20 goals and 30-plus points, along with 190 hits.

Jack McBain

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	17	29	0.35

A 6-foot-4 center who uses his size to be an effective physical presence, McBain has earned the respect of the Mammoth, which was shown by his new five-year, $21.25 million contract, an indication that they view him as more than a fourth-line center. McBain recorded career highs in goals (13) and points (27) to go along with 291 hits and 78 penalty minutes last season. The scoring numbers alone don’t generate fantasy interest, but 291 hits ranked sixth in the entire NHL and that holds value in banger leagues already, but if McBain can expand his offensive repertoire, then he would gain more widespread appeal. While McBain doesn’t have a huge offensive pedigree in the NHL, he did have productive senior season at Boston College in 2021-2022, scoring 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in just 24 games, so maybe there is a path to him producing more if he gets consistent ice time in Utah’s top nine. If McBain gets a little more ice time in 2025-2026, then he can fairly be expected to contribute 10-15 goals and 30 points, and if he puts up 250-plus hits, too, that will give him some fantasy value and if he could pop more offensively, that appeal would climb quickly.

Alex Kerfoot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	20	32	0.40

A versatile veteran forward who has missed one game in the past five seasons, Kerfoot’s role was reduced last season, his ice time dropping more than two minutes per game and his point production dropped from 45 points in 2023-2024 to 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 2024-2025. In addition to his ice time being cut, Kerfoot suffered from a dramatic swing in his on-ice shooting percentage, going from 10.1 percent two seasons ago to a career-low 6.6 percent last season. Kerfoot has established in Colorado, Toronto, and Arizona before the move to Utah that he is a reliable complementary forward who can play wing and center, moving around the lineup as needed. Last season, he won 52.5 percent of his draws, only the second season in his career in which he was the right side of the faceoff ledger. The main concern when it comes to Kerfoot’s offensive production is his reluctance to shoot the puck, recording 203 shots on goal in 163 games over the past two years. In a supporting role for the Mammoth, Kerfoot should still be counted on to play every game, and he should find his way to double-digit goals and 30-35 points.

DEFENCE

Mikhail Sergachev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	40	52	0.67

Acquired from Tampa Bay following an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Sergachev provided Utah with the No. 1 defenceman that they needed. He sniped a career-high 15 goals and his 53 points was the second-highest total of his career. Sergachev averaged a career-high 25:07 of ice time per game and he brings a lot to the Utah defence. He is physically strong and can win puck battles, though he cut down on his hits last season compared to previous campaigns. Sergachev is also an excellent puck-handler who will use his wide base to protect the puck, taking the time necessary to make the best possible play. The smart move for the Mammoth to acquire Sergachev was that he was at a statistical buy-low point, coming off a season with a 95.1 PDO, and his percentages bounced back last season to 100.1 PDO, which is a little below his career mark, but much more in typical range. Sergachev did score on 11.4 percent of his shots on goal, which was more than double his career shooting percentage (5.6 percent) prior to last season, so that is a number likely to see some regression. Keeping in mind that he is playing 25 minutes per game for the Mammoth, Sergachev should still be able to hit double digits in goals and 50-plus points again.

Sean Durzi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	12	17	29	0.37

An early season shoulder injury sabotaged Durzi’s 2025-2026 season, limiting him to just 30 games, and he produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A). With the acquisition of Sergachev, Durzi was not needed to quarterback the top power play unit and that will still be the case this season, but Durzi has established his ability as a right-shot puck-moving defenceman. He has confidence to make plays on the offensive blueline and has a hard and accurate shot. Durzi does not play an especially physical game, but he is quick to get in the path of opposing shooters, recording 475 blocked shots in 242 career games. As the Mammoth improved as a team, Durzi found his way to a career-high 53.6 percent Corsi, which is, at least in part, a product of his ability to move the puck up the ice. While Durzi falls behind Sergachev on the depth chart, on a relatively thin Mammoth blueline, Durzi is still the second-best fantasy option, since he will play more than 20 minutes per game and should at least quarterback the second power play unit. In 2025-2026, look for Durzi to rebound as he challenges double digit goals and 30-35 points while also recording 140 blocked shots.

John Marino

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	3	21	24	0.34

Acquired from the New Jersey Devils last summer, Marino missed half of the season while recovering from back surgery, so he didn’t get into the lineup until January, but the veteran blueliner was effective once he got back into his groove. Marino recorded 14 points (1 G, 13 A) in 35 games and all of those points were at even strength, so, among the 248 defencemen to play at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Marino ranked sixth in assists per 60 minutes (1.25) and 14th in points per 60 minutes (1.34). He is an excellent skater who makes good passes to exit the defensive zone, but last season’s scoring pace was unusual as he has yet to match the 26 points (6 G, 20 A) that he scored as a rookie in 2019-2020. He is also not a particularly strong presence when battling in the corners, so there is some vulnerability in that aspect of his game, but it gets offset by his positive attributes and he finished last season with a 53.6 percent Corsi, with the Mammoth outscoring opponents 30-25 with Marino on the ice. That fits into any lineup and on a Mammoth team that is light on defensive depth, Marino should play a big role in 2025-2026. He has recorded one power play point, total, in the past three seasons, so there is a limit to what Marino will provide offensively, but he should be expected to contribute 20-25 points and around 90 blocked shots which, generally, will not draw much fantasy interest.

Olli Maatta

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	15	17	0.22

A veteran blueliner who has been bouncing around quite a bit in recent seasons, Maatta made the most of his opportunity in Utah, earning a three-year, $10.5 million contract. While that might not sound like a huge deal, the Mammoth are Maatta’s fourth team since the 2019-2020 season and he was struggling on Detroit’s third pair before Utah traded a third-round pick to acquire him. Maatta averaged 19:55 of ice time per game in Utah, a mark that he last surpassed in 2015-2016, his third season in the NHL. Thrust into a top four role on a team that didn’t have John Marino and Sean Durzi for significant chunks of the season, Maatta was a positive possession player and the Mammoth outscored opponents 41-39 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. That’s not a game-breaking performance, rather it’s an indication that he could competently fill a spot in Utah’s top four on the blueline and that’s enough. Maatta is a competent puck-moving defenceman, though he rarely sees power play ice time and that means his scoring production will be modest. He’s also not a hitter, as last season’s total of 25 hits was his lowest since 2014-2015, when he had 18 hits in 20 games. With security and what should be a regular role on the Mammoth blueline, expect Maatta to chip in 15-20 points with 110 blocked shots. Like Marino, that’s probably not enough to generate fantasy interest, but the blueline options are limited in Utah.

GOAL

Karel Vejmelka

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
46	23	16	4	3	.906	2.72

The Utah Mammoth seem to be opting for a kitchen sink approach in net at the moment, following a year that saw Connor Ingram fail to live up to the future starter trajectory he seemed to be on when he arrived in Arizona. They'll start the 2025-26 season with Ingram and the surprisingly reliable Karel Vejmelka as their tandem pairing, but Vitek Vanecek sits waiting in the wings in case something goes awry - and Matt Villalta is hanging around in the depth chart too, along with former Providence College standout Jaxson Stauber. All five goaltenders in Utah's immediate depth chart have NHL experience, but none have a storied history as a team's relied-upon starter - which feels very Coyotes of the Mammoth, despite the expansion team's attempt to forge their own identity.

The Mammoth didn't completely flounder last season, but they failed to reach the postseason by a big enough margin that it's clear something will need to change this fall. And while Vejmelka was clearly the team's best chance of success last year, he has a shaky history when asked to shoulder too much of the workload. Ingram will need to bounce back after his tough campaign if Utah hopes to challenge, and they've got far more reliable goaltending tandems waiting across the ice from a handful of the Western Conference's Wild Card contenders.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What about the Maple Leafs is not working? – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 16:05:37 +0000

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 24: Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 24, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs are going through a bit of a rough patch, losing their past three games and six of their last nine. Even after factoring in that slump, though, they have an impressive 30-19-2 record. This downturn is also coming at a time when they’re missing one of their top forwards in John Tavares (lower body) as well as the continued absence of Anthony Stolarz (knee).

Toronto seems to be a city of anxiety when it comes to the Leafs, brought on by years of playoff disappointments, so success seems to be treated with an asterisk whereas slumps come with an “Oh boy, here we go again” attitude, but given the overall success of this team thus far in 2024-25 and the recent injuries, would it be best to dismiss the recent struggles as just the type of stretch that every good team goes through, or is there really an underlining issue being exposed?

Certainly, this is still a good team, but when people express those doubts about Toronto, they’re not disputing that. Instead, they’re saying this team isn’t good enough to be regarded as a serious Stanley Cup contender, and by that standard, I do think this stretch highlights an area of real concern. Toronto has managed just one goal in each of its past three games and ranks 13th in goals per game this campaign with 3.04. For a team that’s built around four elite forwards, to have a lack of offense is rather discouraging.

In fact, 74.5 percent of Toronto’s cap is eaten by forwards compared to 54.3 percent for Winnipeg (3.58 goals per game) and 56.5 percent for Tampa Bay (3.48 goals per game). In fact, the only other team close to the Maple Leafs in terms of the percentage of their cap spent on forwards is Washington, but while the Capitals are at 74.7 percent, their situation is weird because Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2 million against the cap) and TJ Oshie ($5.75 million against the cap) are on LTIR. Even if we were talking apples to apples, though, at least Washington is getting value at 3.49 goals per game.

So, what is it about Toronto that isn’t working? You’ve probably already guessed because it is the common argument against the Maple Leafs’ way of doing things: If you spend $46.65 million on four forwards (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Tavares and Mitch Marner), then you don’t have much left over for the rest of your forward corps.

On another team, that could be supplemented by young players on entry-level contracts or players locked to team-friendly contracts. Toronto doesn’t have much of either on the forward side of things. Part of that is because for years now, Toronto has been trading futures for playoff runs that didn’t materialize.

The notable exception is Matthew Knies, who has 18 goals and 31 points in 47 appearances this campaign, but even that is about to go away given that this is the last season of his entry-level contract. Outside of him and the Big Four, no Maple Leafs player has reached the 15-goal or 25-point mark.

That also makes them particularly vulnerable to absences, such as the current one by Tavares. It does have to be said that Toronto did fairly well without Matthews during stretches of the campaign, but that was due to strong goaltending rather than other forwards filling the void. In Toronto’s first stint without Matthews from Nov. 5-27, the team went 7-2-0 despite averaging just 2.89 goals per game. Toronto was a mixed 3-3-0 during Matthews second absence from Dec. 21-Jan. 2 and once again managed just 2.83 goals per game.

That strong goaltending has been the backbone of the Maple Leafs this campaign, but we’ve seen vulnerability there since Dec. 14 with Toronto allowing 3.32 goals per game. It’s not coincidental that the Maple Leafs’ dip in goaltending is what’s made Toronto’s underwhelming offense -- something that’s nothing new this campaign -- gain attention. A lot can be forgiven or ignored as long as the team collectively is winning. It’s also not coincidental that Dec. 14 to present covers Toronto’s span without Stolarz, who had been terrific before getting hurt with a 9-5-2 record, 2.15 GAA and .927 save percentage in 17 appearances.

When Stolarz comes back, perhaps he’ll resume his dominant play, and Toronto’s mediocre scoring will once again seem acceptable. Once thing this stretch has highlighted, though: The Maple Leafs need him. Unlike some older versions of the Maple Leafs who were driven by offense, this team hasn’t consistently shown an ability to impress when not backed up by great goaltending.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs TOR, Thu vs COL, Sat vs SEA)

The Flames will wrap up their schedule before the 4 Nations Face-Off with a trio of home games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, Colorado on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday. It’s fairly tough competition, but I wanted to highlight them anyway to discuss the trade that sent Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier and two draft picks (2025 second rounder, 2028 seventh rounder) in exchange for Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee.

In terms of what Calgary gave up, the 23-year-old Pelletier is a former first-round pick, but hasn’t developed into a top six forward yet, supplying four goals and 11 points in 24 outings this season before the trade. Meanwhile, Kuzmenko is a former 39-goal scorer, but he’s struggled to do much of anything with the Flames in 2024-25, collecting four goals and 15 points in 37 outings. In other words, the Flyers got some interesting pieces in this trade, but Calgary isn’t losing assets that were likely to help the squad in the short term.

The best piece Calgary got in exchange for that was Frost, who has 11 goals and 25 points in 49 appearances in 2024-25 after recording 41 and 46 points in 2023-24 and 2022-23, respectively. He’s a solid third-line center who looks fine on the draw with a 51.6 winning percentage this year. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund will probably play ahead of Frost up the middle, and when Connor Zary (knee) comes back, Zary might shift to the wing to play alongside the newly acquired Flyers center.

Frost isn’t likely to turn heads, but he should be a nice secondary scorer for a team struggling to find the back of the net (2.68 goals per game). The only potential sticking point is Frost couldn’t complete Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to New Jersey, which might indicate he’s dealing with an injury. It’s probably nothing serious if the Flames pulled the trigger on this trade, but perhaps it will delay his debut with the Flames.

When it comes to Farabee, he’s another middle-six forward. The 24-year-old did look like he was on track to become more than that last campaign when he supplied 22 goals and 50 points in 82 games, but he’s regressed this year with eight goals and 19 points in 50 outings. Perhaps a fresh start with Calgary will do him some good, but he’ll probably begin his stint with Calgary on the third line with Frost (assuming Frost is healthy).

For the 25-18-7 Flames, the question is if these moves are enough to win them a playoff spot. The team is still very dependent on Dustin Wolf to be stellar in goal -- his 19-8-2 record, 2.51 GAA and .917 save percentage in 29 appearances is a big part of the reason Calgary’s in this position -- but this should at least give him a bit more goal support.

Chicago Blackhawks (Wed vs EDM, Fri vs NSH, Sat @ STL)

The Blackhawks will get to rest up early this week before hosting the Oilers on Wednesday and Predators on Friday. Chicago will then travel to St. Louis for a clash Saturday.

In most cases, I’d label the 18-24-7 Predators and 23-24-4 Blues are favorable matchups, but we’re talking about Chicago…so that doesn’t really work. Chicago is 16-30-5, giving the franchise good odds of getting a top two pick for the third straight campaign. The silver lining is that sets the stage for the Blackhawks to have an amazing core to build around, but in the meantime, Connor Bedard is burning the second year of his entry-level contract on a team that’s not giving him much to work with.

Not that Bedard is putting up Connor McDavid-like numbers, but the Blackhawks sophomore is doing his part with 14 goals and 44 points in 50 games. There’s only so much he can do when only one other player on the team, Teuvo Teravainen, has more than 30 points. Chicago also recently dealt Taylor Hall to Carolina, and while he wasn’t living up to expectations with the Blackhawks, his nine goals and 24 points in 46 outings was still good enough to rank fifth among forwards in Chicago’s scoring race before the trade.

Ryan Donato, who ranks third with 29 points (15 goals) in 49 outings, might be gone soon too. The 28-year-old is in the final season of his two-year, $4 million contract, so it’s fair to believe Chicago will jump at the opportunity to move him for a pick or prospect.

Seth Jones, who is only in the third season of his eight-year, $76 million contract, is likely to stay, though. That contract hasn’t looked great for Chicago and with the benefit of hindsight, the timing was awkward given the Blackhawks’ performance over the life of it. However, Jones has his moments, and he’s going through one of them. The 30-year-old blueliner has recorded at least a point in each of his past seven appearances, giving him two goals and 10 points in that span. If you’re looking for someone who will provide value this week in Chicago outside of Bedard, Jones is your best bet.

Los Angeles Kings (Wed vs MTL, Fri vs DAL, Sat vs ANA)

The Kings will spend the week at home, facing Montreal, Dallas and Anaheim on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, respectively. They’ll try to enter the break on a positive note after going 2-7-1 from Jan. 11-30.

Los Angeles’ recent slump is due in large part to a lack of scoring. The Kings have managed three or more goals just once in that 10-game span. Anze Kopitar has been noticeably quiet. The 37-year-old is having a great campaign overall with 12 goals and 43 points through 49 appearances, but he’s supplied just four assists over his past 13 outings. It should just be a matter of time before the veteran gets going again, but perhaps fantasy managers should consider benching him until that time comes.

Phillip Danault has left plenty to be desired too after collecting only two points (one goal) across his last 11 games. He’s now on pace to record just 38 points this season, which would make it the first time he’s ever finished below the 40-point mark in a season where he’s logged at least 70 games.

Obviously, the slump has skewed the scoring pace downward, but there are areas of concern beyond that. Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of his game is his complete lack of power-play production. He had nine points with the man advantage last season and a career-high 20 in 2022-23, but he still hasn’t found the scoresheet on the power play this campaign. To make matters worse for him, with Drew Doughty back, Danault might find himself shifting out of the power-play makeup entirely.

Speaking of Doughty, he made his season debut following a knee injury without any sort of time management to ease him back in. He logged 23:51 of ice time Wednesday and another 27:43 the very next day. He didn’t get any points over his first two contests, but the Kings were shutout of back-to-back games, so that’s less of a Doughty thing and more of a byproduct of the team’s overall slump.

Los Angeles is a good enough team to overcome its recent struggles, and Doughty should be an effective defender the rest of the way. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him collect 15-20 points over what’s left of the campaign.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ SJS, Wed @ LAK, Sat vs NJD, Sun vs TBL)

The Canadiens are one of just a handful of squads set to play four games next week. They’ll start on the road with contests in San Jose on Tuesday and Los Angeles on Wednesday. Afterward, Montreal will host the Devils on Saturday and the Lightning on Sunday.

The Canadiens battled their way back in the playoff conversation by going 13-3-1 from Dec. 17-Jan. 21, but some of that momentum has been lost after dropping their past four games (0-3-1). Unfortunately, Jakub Dobes has lost some of his initial magic. He burst onto the scene by stopping 103 of 107 shots (.963 save percentage) across his first four starts -- all wins -- but he’s allowed at least three goals in each of his past three outings.

The 23-year-old is a promising netminder who has a 2.44 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 14 AHL appearances this season, but he’s not presently one of the best goaltenders in the world. A drop off from his hot start isn’t shocking and you similarly shouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to work his way back from it. He should average out to be a pretty decent rookie for the Canadiens in the second half of the campaign, but it would be too much to hope for Dobes to drag Montreal into the playoffs.

If the Canadiens are going to feature in the postseason, it will probably need to be the offense leading the charge. Patrik Laine has slumped recently too, though, being held off the scoresheet in each of his past three outings. Laine tends to be a very streaky scorer who sometimes seems unstoppable and on other occasions is a nonfactor. If he’s on your team, you have to work around these cold patches. Benching him wouldn’t be the worst idea in the short term but put him right back into the mix the second he finds the back of the net because one goal from him often kicks off a new hot streak.

When Laine starts going again, it should also help Lane Hutson, who is on a four-game scoring drought. Hutson isn’t solely dependent on Laine for offense, but it’s fair to say that the two have found chemistry, especially with the man advantage, so what’s good for one is often good for the other.

Hutson is also just one point shy of 40. The last time the Canadiens had a rookie defenseman hit that milestone was 1984-85 when Chris Chelios and Tom Kurvers surpassed that mark. The only other rookie blueliner to ever reach that milestone in franchise history was Guy Lapointe in 1970-71.

Ottawa Senators (Mon @ NSH, Tue @ TBL, Thu @ TBL, Sat @ FLA)

During a busier week, I wouldn’t be highlighting the Senators because they have a rather tough schedule, but because they’re one of the rare squads set to play in four games, I’ll feature them anyway. The Senators will be on the road all week, starting in Nashville on Monday before playing two games in Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Thursday. Ottawa will then conclude the week in Florida on Saturday.

In contrast to the Canadiens, Ottawa has won its last three games, bringing the Senators up to an 8-2-1 record dating back to Jan. 11. That’s propelled Ottawa to the third spot in the Atlantic Division, just four points behind Toronto and five shy of Florida.

If you had suggested at the beginning of the campaign that this would be the Senators’ position, many would have assumed that it was a sign that Linus Ullmark had worked out superbly, and while the goaltender does have an impressive 2.38 GAA and .915 save percentage, he’s been limited to 23 outings due to injury and hasn’t played since Dec. 22.

Even with him gone, though, goaltending hasn’t been an issue. Leevi Merilainen has looked fantastic, posting a 7-3-1 record, 2.19 GAA and .921 save percentage in 11 appearances. Although Anton Forsberg hasn’t been nearly as effective overall, he’s done his part recently too with a 3-1-0 record, 2.19 GAA and a .922 save percentage over his last five outings.

Ullmark is close to returning, so it will be interesting to see what Ottawa does next. The path of least resistance would be to send Merilainen back to the minors because he’s waiver-exempt. It feels wrong to demote a goaltender who has been doing this good, but you also need to keep in mind that he’s 22 years old. He might not get many starts in a scenario where all three goaltenders are healthy, so it’s probably better for his development if he’s with AHL Belleville and playing regularly.

That scenario assumes Forsberg can at least do adequately as the backup. He’s done well lately but still hasn’t been great overall, posting a 2.87 GAA and an .893 save percentage across 19 outings in 2024-25. If he starts struggling again, then Ottawa could push him to the side. At the very least, Forsberg has less job security now than he had at the beginning of the campaign.

Perhaps the Senators will consider seeing if there is a taker for Forsberg on the trade market. There might not be much demand for him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s an avenue they’ve explored. Whatever consideration they gave to the possibility of trading Claude Giroux is probably over, though. The 37-year-old is in the final year of his contract, so it would have made sense to move him before the Senators got hot, but now that a playoff berth is looking realistic, there’s little reason to move one of their top six forwards, so fans of other contenders can likely cross him off their wish list.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs OTT, Sat @ DET, Sun @ MTL)

Ottawa has surpassed Tampa Bay in the standing, but the Lightning will have an opportunity to reclaim their spot. As noted above, Tampa Bay is set to host the Senators on Tuesday and Thursday. After those two key games, Tampa Bay will hit the road, playing in Detroit on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday.

It might be a bit much to say Tampa Bay is slumping -- the Lightning earned a 3-0 win over LA on Thursday -- but at the least, the results have been mild recently. Dating back to Dec. 29, Tampa Bay has a record of 7-9-1.

The Lightning have scored just 2.47 goals per game during that 17-game stretch, so it’s fair to say offense has been at the heart of the problem. That’s despite Nikita Kucherov providing an impressive seven goals and 22 points in that span.

However, a lot of other players are a step below what they’re capable of producing. Kucherov’s typical linemates, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point aren’t enduring a full-blown drought, but they’re usually better than the 13 and 10 points, respectively, they’ve collected over the past 17 games. Brandon Hagel (six goals, 14 points) and Victor Hedman (three goals, 12 points) have largely held their own over that stretch too, but their overall scoring pace has declined relative to what it was before Dec. 29.

Taken on their own, the dip of any of those four high-end producers wouldn’t be a big deal, but to have all four of them drop at the same time is noteworthy. That’s compounded by the more significant decline Anthony Cirelli has suffered. After averaging a point-per-game through his first 32 outings (14 goals, 18 assists), he’s managed just two goals and seven points across his past 17 appearances.

Let’s look at this another way: Of Tampa Bay’s top nine scorers through Dec. 28, only one, Darren Raddysh, has seen his point-per-game pace increase over Tampa Bay’s last 17 games. Meanwhile, seven of the nine have a point-per-game pace from Dec. 29-Jan. 30 that’s at least 26 basis points less than it was from the start of the campaign through Dec. 28. Even Kucherov, who as seen a significant decline between those two stretches -- 1.71 PPG compared to 1.29 PPG.

So, it’s not a one player problem. The team collectively has cooled, and there aren’t players outside of that core who have stepped up to fill the void.

Utah HC (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ CBJ, Sat @ CAR, Sun @ WSH)

Utah has a busy week ahead of it. The Hockey Club will host the Flyers on Tuesday before hitting the road with clashes in Columbus on Thursday, Carolina on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

This has nothing to do with fantasy hockey, but I got to note that Utah will apparently not be able to use the nickname Yeti or Yetis, per The Salt Lake Tribune. That leaves the finalists as the Utah Mammoth, Utah Outlaws or sticking with Utah Hockey Club. I’ll be honest, I don’t like any of those options, but a good logo and time can cause branding to grow on people.

I just hope they don’t stick with Hockey Club. As a placeholder, I get it, and I understand it’s a perfectly common name in other sports -- as someone from Toronto, Toronto FC immediately jumps to mind, and that’s one of many MLS teams using FC. However, to me, Hockey Club feels like the absence of identity rather than an identity in and of itself. At the end of the day, though, it’s not for me to decide. The fans of the team are what matter here, but if I was picking, that would be last on my list.

Clayton Keller jerseys should sell regardless. He certainly is playing well enough to deserve it. He has 18 goals and 54 points in 49 appearances, and Keller’s been consistent too, not being held off the scoresheet for more than two games in a row this campaign.

Logan Cooley is sure to help define the Utah franchise too. The 20-year-old sophomore is enjoying a breakout campaign with 15 goals and 43 points in 50 appearances. However, Utah will have to get along without him for a while because he suffered a lower-body injury Wednesday and is regarded as being out indefinitely. That’s on top of the absence of Dylan Guenther (lower body), who has 16 goals and 34 points in 40 outings, but hasn’t played since Jan. 8.

With both of them gone, Josh Doan seems set to serve in a top six capacity and the first power-play unit. He hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far this campaign, collecting just two goals and five points in 19 outings, but he does still have upside and is worth keeping an eye on.

We might also see Matias Maccelli get a fresh opportunity. Maccelli has averaged just 13:58 of ice time this campaign and was even a healthy scratch Wednesday, but with Cooley out, Maccelli could find himself on the second unit. Maccelli has just 17 points (eight goals) in 48 outings this campaign, but he had 49 points in 2022-23 and 57 points last season, so a comeback isn’t out of the question.

Vegas Golden Knights (Tue @ NYI, Thu @ NJD, Sat 2 BOS)

Vegas will be on the road next week, playing against the Islanders on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday and Boston on Saturday. All of those adversaries are in the mix for a playoff spot, but only the Devils are a safe bet to make the postseason at this time.

Vegas seems all-but certain to make the playoffs too given its 31-15-6 record, but the Golden Knights have faltered recently, going 3-6-3 over their past 12 games. Vegas, which had been doing fairly well on the injury front, also got some bad news there. William Karlsson (lower body) has missed the past five games and isn’t close to returning. Cole Schwindt (lower body) will probably be out for a while too.

The Golden Knights attempted to help fill that void by inking Brandon Saad to a one-year, $1.5 million contract. Saad was an unrestricted free agent because he and the Blues mutually agreed to terminate what was left on his remaining on his five-year, $22.5 million contract, which would have run through 2025-26. Even after signing that deal with Vegas, Saad has cost himself millions of dollars by agreeing to walk away from his old deal, but that also highlights how much value he puts on playing in the NHL.

The Blues waived him Tuesday and he cleared because no team wanted his old $4.5 million cap hit. Saad could have simply reported to the minors and collected his paycheck, but the 32-year-old instead took this path, which led him to a fresh opportunity with Vegas.

Although he hasn’t been terribly productive this campaign, recording seven goals and 16 points in 43 outings with St. Louis, he can be an effective middle-six winger. Vegas will likely give him an opportunity to play on the third unit, perhaps alongside Raphael Lavoie and Nicolas Roy. Saad might also get a look on the second power-play unit, but that’s far from certain.

I wouldn’t expect big things from Saad, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he proves to be serviceable with his new team. He also might end up doing a little better when Karlsson returns -- it's entirely feasible Saad and Karlsson will end up playing together when that happens with Roy shifting to the fourth line.

One player Saad is less likely to play with is Tomas Hertl, which is a shame for Saad because Hertl is red hot. The 31-year-old is on an 11-game scoring streak in which he’s provided nine goals and 15 points. Funny enough, he has a neutral plus/minus, even during that terrific stretch, keeping him at a team-worst minus-10 overall. Hertl looks more appealing in terms of possession stats -- his 5v5 relative Corsi and Fenwick are plus-1.8 and plus-4.0, respectively, which suggests the team performs better when he’s on the ice -- but it seems plus/minus is destined to be the one area where he underperforms.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the rookie race at mid-season – Favourable schedules and player to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 15:20:08 +0000

I haven’t spent any time talking about the rookie race this campaign. Macklin Celebrini did miss 12 games early on due to a lower-body injury, which mitigated the early attention he might have otherwise had, but he’s been healthy for a while and has looked fantastic, providing 13 goals and 28 points through 32 appearances.

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson (48) (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

At this stage, though, the reason why I haven’t dipped into the Calder Trophy race is because there’s not a lot to chew on there. Celebrini does have direct competition with Matvei Michkov, but Michkov is just one point ahead of Celebrini despite having played in eight more outings, so barring a change in the second half of the campaign, Celebrini seems like the clear favorite between them. Beyond that, the main competitors are defenseman Lane Hutson, who has three goals and 31 points in 41 outings, and goaltender Dustin Wolf, who is 13-6-2 with a 2.60 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 21 starts.

Comparing Celebrini, Hutson and Wolf is mostly subjective because they bring completely different things, so while a judgment call can and will be made by the end of the season which of them -- or Michkov if he does surprise me -- should get the trophy, comparing them in an article setting feels like evaluating apples and oranges.

Still, we might be able to glean something by evaluating how each of them compares to previous rookies at this stage of their careers. For Celebrini, we’ll compare his start against other forwards, and Hutson will be evaluated against defensemen. I’ll simplify things a little by making the comparisons based on games played (in other words, Connor Bedard’s first 32 games played will be measured against the Sharks rookie) to factor out Celebrini’s injury.

In the case of Wolf, I’m not going to break it down because the odds of him winning the Calder Trophy seem slim. While I think he deserves to be in the conversation to become one of the finalists, the last goaltender to take the trophy was Steve Mason back in 2008-09, and he was unreal that campaign with a 33-20-7 record, 2.29 GAA and .916 save percentage along with 10 shutouts. To put that into the context of that campaign, Mason also finished second in Vezina Trophy voting and fourth in the Hart race. With all due respect to Wolf, he’s not doing anything that measures up to that -- at least, he hasn’t yet.

With that in mind, let’s look at Celebrini’s recent comparables:

Alex Ovechkin, 2005-06, 19-19-38

Connor McDavid, 2016-17, 13-21-34

Sidney Crosby, 2005-06, 13-19-32

Patrick Kane, 2007-08, 8-23-31

Connor Bedard, 2023-24, 12-17-29

Macklin Celebrini, 2024-25, 13-15-28

Auston Matthews, 2016-17, 16-9-25

Paul Stastny, 2006-07, 8-14-22

You can see that his pace is a step below that of Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby and Kane (note that McDavid missed roughly half of his rookie season and consequently missed out on the Calder), but he’s doing about as well as Bedard did last year.

Matthews and Stastny are there to remind us that we need to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Matthews is an amazing goal scorer who began his career with a four-goal game, but he had an extended quiet period from Oct. 27-Nov. 22 (0-3-3 in 13 games) during his rookie campaign, which diminished his early returns. In the case of Stastny, he finished with 28 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances in his first campaign, but he got off to a slow start.

These are ultimately still small sample sizes, but it does at least show that Celebrini is off to a respectable start when measured against the biggest stars of the salary cap era.

Still, Hutson looks even better:

Cale Makar*, 2019-20, 11-26-37

Shayne Gostisbehere*, 2015-16, 12-22-34

Lane Hutson*, 2024-25, 3-28-31

Quinn Hughes*, 2019-20, 4-26-30

Moritz Seider, 2021-22, 3-23-26

Zach Werenski, 2016-17, 6-20-26

Luke Hughes*, 2023-24, 7-16-23

Tyler Myers, 2009-10, 3-19-22

Brock Faber*, 2023-24, 2-18-20

You’ll notice a number of defensemen on this list with asterisks, which indicates that I took the first 41 games of their Calder season, not their first 41 games overall. For example, I didn’t count Makar’s 10 playoff appearances before 2019-20 or Quinn Hughes’ five regular-season outings in 2018-19. Hutson’s two appearances in 2023-24 weren’t factored in either, not that it would have hurt him -- he finished last season with a pair of assists.

That aside, Hutson is off to a remarkable start compared to other defensemen of the salary cap era. Faber did well enough to finish second in Calder Trophy voting last campaign with 47 points, and Hutson is well ahead of him. Moritz Seider is the last blueliner to win the award, and Hutson is outpacing the Red Wings defenseman as well.

Hutson is behind Makar and Gostisbehere, but Makar logged just 57 games as a rookie, consequently finishing with 50 points, and Gostisbehere didn’t play a full campaign either, finishing with 46 points in 66 outings. Hutson is currently on a 62-point pace. That would surpass Nicklas Lidstrom’s 60 points in 1991-92 and be the most since Brian Leetch’s 71 points in 1988-89.

Again, it’s apples and oranges between Celebrini and Hutson, but if you’re just talking about who is on track to leave the bigger mark on history for a rookie in their position, then so far that’s clearly Hutson.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ NYR)

At this point, it seems very likely Buffalo’s playoff drought, which dates back to 2011, will continue, but another franchise’s bid to re-enter the postseason might be successful. The Blue Jackets are in the mix for a Wild Card spot with some favorable games ahead of them. They’ll play in home against Philadelphia and San Jose on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting the Rangers on Saturday. At the time of writing, none of those three adversaries have a winning record.

The Blue Jackets are no strangers to injuries this campaign, but they are facing arguably their biggest challenge on that front with Sean Monahan on the injured reserve list due to a wrist issue. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but he was placed on IR rather quickly after sustaining the injury Tuesday, which probably isn’t a great sign.

Before the injury, Monahan had 14 goals and 41 points through 41 appearances in 2024-25 while playing primarily on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit. His loss will be felt, but if there is any silver lining at all, it’s that Columbus had a promising young forward waiting in the minors for his opportunity.

Luca Del Bel Belluz has excelled with AHL Cleveland in 2024-25, providing 17 goals and 37 points in 34 outings. The 21-year-old was summoned due to Monahan’s absence and was a standout performer in Thursday’s 6-2 victory over Seattle, collecting a goal and an assist in 11:16 of ice time. It’s reasonable to believe that his playing time will increase as he settles in, and he seems like a nice short-term grab to me -- short term because he might return to the minors once Monahan recovers.

Adam Fantilli is likely to be another player leaned on during Monahan’s absence. He logged 18:41, including 1:42 with the man advantage, Thursday and registered an assist to extend his scoring streak to four games. The 20-year-old’s nine goals and 20 points in 42 appearances in 2024-25 is nothing to write home about, but the 2023 No. 3 overall pick has tremendous upside that makes him worth keeping a very close eye on.

Dallas Stars (Tue @ TOR, Thu vs MTL, Sat @ COL, Sun vs DET)

Dallas has won its past six games, pushing its record to 26-13-1 in 2024-25. Although the Stars are having an incredible season, they’re still not in position to have the home-ice advantage in the first round because of the tough division they play in. Consequently, the Stars need every point they can get. They’ll try to stay strong in Toronto on Tuesday before hosting Montreal on Thursday. Dallas then has a back-to-back set over the weekend, playing in Colorado on Saturday and at home against Detroit on Sunday.

Jason Robertson’s resurgence has been a major part of the Stars’ winning streak. He was playing well below his potential early in the campaign, recording four goals and eight points across his opening 17 outings. Since then, he hasn’t been held off the scoresheet in consecutive games and has been especially effective recently, supplying three goals and 11 points over his past six outings. To put that into perspective, he leads all players in scoring from Dec. 29-Jan. 9 -- Zach Werenski and Mitch Marner are tied for second with nine points each.

Matt Duchene has also been on a roll. Although he’s having a strong campaign overall, Duchene had a slow stretch from Dec. 4-27 in which he was limited to a goal and an assist over 10 contests. He’s since rebounded with three goals and eight points across his past six outings.

The best part for Dallas is Duchene and Robertson typically play on separate lines, so this isn’t a case of one player’s hot streak simply feeding into the other’s, they’re both gelling at the same time independent of each other, which helps spread out the offense. That said, Duchene’s linemates Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are looking good as well with eight and seven points, respectively, across Dallas’ past six games. Robertson’s linemates Evgenii Dadonov and Roope Hintz are also enjoying strong stretches with six and five points, respectively, over the same span.

The only downside is Logan Stankoven, who serves on the third line, hasn’t been doing much. He has the most offensive potential among the forwards outside of the top six, but the 21-year-old has been a mixed bag this campaign with four goals and 19 points in 38 outings, and that’s despite an amazing start of the season in which he had four goals and 14 points over his opening 15 games. He’s worth monitoring to see if he gets hot again, but he’s too streaky to be an everyday option in fantasy.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ PHI, Tue @NJD, Thu vs DET, Sat vs ANA)

The Panthers have a real shot of reaching the 100-point mark for the third time in four seasons -- and they played at a 100-point pace in the shortened 2021 campaign (37-14-5) -- but they’ve been going through something of a rough patch with a 3-4-0 record from Dec. 23-Jan. 8. Florida will attempt to correct course on the road against the Flyers on Monday and the Devils on Tuesday. The Panthers will then return home to host Detroit on Thursday and Anaheim on Saturday.

Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart typically drive Florida’s offense, but none of them have been especially noteworthy lately -- each of them has no more than one goal and three points across Florida’s past five outings. Instead, Jesper Boqvist has been the unlikely leader recently, collecting four goals and six points over that five-game span.

This won’t last -- the 26-year-old has never recorded more than 23 points in a single campaign -- but you can enjoy this while it lasts. If nothing else, the timing of it has taken a touch of pressure off the Panthers’ major forwards during one of their quieter stretches.

One forward who might be feeling the pressure regardless, though, is Sam Bennett. He was amazing at the start of the campaign, supplying 13 goals and 26 points across his opening 27 appearances, which made it look like he might earn a big payday in the final season of his four-year, $17.7 million contract. Some decline was likely inevitable, but rather than slow, he’s collapsed, recording just one assist over his past 13 outings.

If there is a silver lining, Bennett is still firing the puck at a decent rate, accounting for 25 shots in his past eight outings, and his role with the team alongside Tkachuk and Verhaeghe seems largely intact. It seems just a matter of time before he breaks out of his recent slump, but he probably won’t have another stretch like he did in the early portion of 2024-25.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ UTA, Thu @ DAL, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs NYR)

Montreal wasn’t terribly impressive early in the campaign, owning an 11-16-3 record through Dec. 14, but the Canadiens have gone on a 9-2-0 run since. That’s put them into the mix for a playoff spot going into next week’s action. Montreal will begin on the road with games in Utah on TuesdayJack Hughes, and Dallas on Thursday. The Canadiens will then host the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

A key factor in Montreal’s recent success has been its offense. The Canadiens have averaged 3.82 goals per game across their past 11 contests, which is a huge spike from their 2.70 goals per game over their first 30 outings.

Interestingly, there’s very little overlap with Patrik Laine’s success after returning from a knee injury and Montreal’s run. He did have an incredible eight goals and nine points in nine outings, but that was from Dec. 3-21, so mostly before Montreal took off. He then had no goals and an assist in four appearances from Dec. 23-31 and has missed the Canadiens’ last four outings due to an illness. You could absolutely make an argument that his hot return helped get the ball rolling, but he’s not what’s sustained it.

Cole Caufield has been an offensive leader over that stretch with six goals and 13 points through 11 outings, but that’s nothing new for him -- he has 23 goals and 40 points in 41 games overall -- so while he’s an important part of the Canadiens’ offense, he’s not what changed. The same goes for Nick Suzuki, who has two goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances, giving him 13 goals and 42 points in 2024-25.

If you want the secret sauce, it’s been depth players stepping up. Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovsky, Emil Heineman and Jake Evans have each had 15 points or fewer over Montreal’s first 30 outings, but those four have each collected seven or more points over the past 11 games.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen some promise from Jakub Dobes. He’s made three starts so far and is 3-0-0 with a GAA and a save percentage of 0.97 and .959, respectively. Granted, that’s a small sample size, but those matches were against Florida, Colorado and Washington -- all on the road -- so the Canadiens have given him tough competition, and he’s risen to the occasion.

Sam Montembeault has been largely hit-and-miss this campaign, including from Dec. 17 onward. He does have a 6-2-0 record over that stretch, but he also has a 2.78 GAA and an .890 save percentage. With that in mind, there’s a chance Dobes could see his workload begin to increase.

New Jersey Devils (Tue vs FLA, Thu @ TOR, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs OTT)

The Devils recent mediocre play has been due to a cold spell offensively. New Jersey has been strong overall, ranking 11th in goals per game with 3.16 goals per game, but the Devils have averaged just 2 goals per game across their past seven outings.

Forwards Jack Hughes (two goals, six points), Jesper Bratt (one goal, five points) and Ondrej Palat (three goals, four points), as well as defenseman Dougie Hamilton (five assists), are the only players who have made notable contributions on offense during that seven-game stretch. Timo Meier (one goal, two points) and especially Nico Hischier (one goal, two points) stand out as having been unusually cold in that span.

It's just a matter of time before the Devils start scoring again, though, so I wouldn’t be overly worried. It’s also worth remembering that six of New Jersey’s past seven outings have been on the road, so perhaps that worked against the Devils.

For his part, Markstrom hasn’t been amazing recently, but he also hasn’t been the issue. He’s limited the competition to two or three goals in each of his past five starts, which would be good enough under normal circumstances. He’s also still putting up strong numbers overall with a 21-8-3 record, 2.19 GAA and .911 save percentage across his past 32 appearances.

So, if you have New Jersey players on your team, my recommendation would be to hold firm and anticipate better times ahead.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ NYI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs BOS, Sun @ NJD)

Ottawa is going through a four-game schedule in the week of Jan. 6-12, and it has another full slate ahead. The Senators will begin next week with a road matchup against the Islanders before hosting Washington and Boston on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Senators will then conclude the week in New Jersey on Sunday. With those final two games, the Senators will have played in five back-to-back sets, totaling 10 matches, in the span of 12 contests.

Ottawa has suffered four straight defeats to start January and is 1-5-1 across its past seven outings. With Montreal and Detroit both trending in the right direction, the Senators are in danger of slipping to seventh in the Atlantic Division and seeing their playoff chances fade further.

Brady Tkachuk, who is 25 and in his seventh NHL campaign without making his postseason debut, is doing his best to keep the Senators afloat, recording two goals, five points, 21 PIM and 20 hits over that seven-game span. He’s been Ottawa’s top offensive power during that stretch, but the other forwards the Senators typically rely on for offense -- Claude Giroux, Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson -- have each recorded two or fewer points over that stretch.

Though, perhaps it’s inaccurate to say that the Senators are relying on Giroux for offense, or at least they shouldn’t be at this point. Giroux was still a strong top-line scoring threat when he joined the Senators in 2022, but he seems to have declined substantially at the age of 36, supplying nine goals and 24 points through 40 appearances this campaign. Clearly, he still has something to offer, but those are numbers that would be more in line with a third line forward on a strong team.

Perhaps there’s a strong team out there that would want him in such a role. Giroux is in the final campaign of his three-year, $19.5 million contract, and if the Senators don’t rebuild soon, it would make sense for them to shop the veteran forward. He does have a no-movement clause, so Giroux has complete control over that situation, but his career is winding down, and he hasn’t won the Cup yet, so if presented with the opportunity to play for a serious contender, he’d likely take it.

He'd easily be the Senators’ biggest trade chip if it came to that. Travis Hamonic would also likely have appeal as a third-pairing blueliner, while Nick Cousins and Adam Gaudette might be grabbed to provide playoff-bound teams with forward depth, but if you’re a Senators fan and the team doesn’t turn things around soon, then Giroux rumors are the ones you’ll want to pay attention to.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon vs FLA, Tue @ CBJ, Thu @ NYI, Sat @ NJD)

The Flyers endured a tough road stretch from Dec. 23-Jan. 5 in which they went 2-3-1. They’re back at home now, but rather than reverse the trend, they’ve dropped their past two games. Their home stint will conclude Monday against the Panthers. After that, they’ll go on a three-game trip involving games against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Islanders on Thursday and the Devils on Saturday. Philadelphia will look to do better in that stretch while attempting to make up ground in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

Like Ottawa, Philadelphia’s recent struggles has caused its playoff hopes to drastically diminish, but with half the season left, a comeback can’t be ruled out. It’s unfair to put this on the rookie, but a stronger showing out of Matvei Michkov would go a long way toward making that happen.

I noted Michkov’s overall success this season up top, but what I didn’t mention is how cold he’s been recently, recording a goal, an assist and a minus-17 rating across his past 13 appearances. Plus/minus is always a stat that needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but his minus-17 rating from Dec. 14-Jan. 9 is by far the worst in the NHL. The next worst in the NHL during that time period are Brandon Montour and Mikhail Sergachev, who are tied at minus-12. Jamie Drysdale is the next worst member of the Flyers at minus-11 while the next worst Flyers forward is Morgan Frost at minus-9.

Michkov was a healthy scratch for two games from Nov. 7-9 and followed that with an amazing stretch from Nov. 11-Dec. 10 in which he had seven goals, 17 points and a plus-13 rating across 14 outings. I do wonder if maybe another scratch is in Michkov’s future to give him a chance to regroup. Either way, he’s a talented rookie, and it’s not uncommon for rookies to grow through stretches like this -- for one of countless examples, you might recall the Auston Matthews rookie slump I highlighted earlier -- so there’s not much cause for concern about Michkov’s future. In the long run, he should grow from this.

In contrast to his cold spell, Tyson Foerster had an incredible run of six goals and nine points in nine outings from Dec. 18-Jan. 5, but he was held off the scoresheet in Philadelphia’s past two games, so the good times might be over. He’s more of a streaming option given his streaky nature and middle-of-the-road stats (12 goals and 19 points in 41 games). For that reason, it’s best to move on when he shows signs of cooling.

If you’re looking for a hot member of the team, that’s Travis Konecny. He’s having an amazing campaign overall too with 20 goals and 46 points in 42 outings, but he’s been especially productive on the goal front recently with four markers across his last five appearances. His shooting percentage of 19.0 is well above his career average of 13.0, which is a potential warning sign, but that’s been skewed upwards by his power-play goals (a career-high eight). His 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 9.8 is actually a bit low for him (he finished with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the double digits in five of his previous seven campaigns), so there might still be some upside in that regard.

Utah HC (Tue vs MTL, Thu vs NYR, Sat vs STL)

Utah is having a streaky season, and lately, the squad has been trending in the wrong direction, going 2-6-2 from Dec. 22-Jan. 10. Fortunately, next week, the team will be at home against adversaries that presently don’t occupy a playoff position. Utah HC will face the Canadiens on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Blues on Saturday.

Utah got Connor Ingram back from an upper-body injury, but at the time of writing, he hasn’t drawn into a game since returning, and it’s likely he’ll be used sparing. He didn’t impress before the injury, posting a 6-4-3 record, 3.61 GAA and .871 save percentage in 13 outings. Perhaps the time off has given him a chance to reset, but given Karel Vejmelka’s success -- although he has a 10-11-3 record, he’s stellar in terms of GAA (2.38) and save percentage (.916) -- so there isn’t much motivation to use Ingram except when Vejmelka could use a breather. Then again, the winds with this duo have changed before, so nothing is certain. Vejmelka was the starter in 2022-23, but that role was taken by Ingram last season. Ingram also entered 2024-25 with the No. 1 gig that now belongs to Vejmelka.

Neither has a track record of success long enough to be called a safe bet. The closest thing to that in Utah is Clayton Keller. The 26-year-old forward has been remarkably consistent this campaign, being held off the scoresheet in consecutive games just once in 2024-25 (Oct. 22-24). That steady stream of offense has resulted in him recording 14 goals and 41 points through 40 appearances, putting him well on his way toward reaching the 75-point mark for the third straight campaign.

It's just a shame that the forward corps around him is nothing special. Logan Cooley (11 goals, 35 points), Dylan Guenther (16 goals, 34 points) and Nick Schmaltz (seven goals, 30 points) have all been fine, but no other member of the squad has even reached the 20-point mark. In the long run, Utah does have Tij Iginla, Cole Beaudoin and Daniil But, who could make a significant impact in a couple of years, but none of those young forwards are in a position to help now.

Josh Doan is much closer, but after the 22-year-old turned heads by providing five goals and nine points in 11 games with Arizona in 2023-24, he was quiet during an NHL stint from Oct. 8-26 this campaign, supplying a goal and an assist across nine outings before being sent to AHL Tucson. He did seem to find his way in Tucson, though, contributing eight goals and 21 points over 25 contests, and was recalled Friday as a result. He had three shots in 14:18 of ice time during Utah’s 2-1 win over San Jose.

As already noted, Utah isn’t swimming in offensive depth, so with Keller, Cooley and Schmaltz sharing a line and Dylan Guenther (lower body) out indefinitely, Doan doesn’t have great linemates to play off. He’s at least worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t jump to take him yet.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Boston Struggling, Colorado returns to health and much more

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:47:10 +0000

Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

If you compare every team since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005-06), you’ll find that the Boston Bruins rank as the best defensively, allowing an average of just 2.55 goals per game. That’s not shocking when you consider that the Bruins have gone from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask to the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman over that period.

Elite goaltending has simply become the norm in Boston, and it didn’t look like it was going to change. Sure, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa for cap reasons, but the 25-year-old Swayman seemed ready to take his place as Boston’s clear No. 1, and yes, the negotiations got tense, resulting in him missing the preseason, but in the end, he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract, ending the saga with a resolution that both sides can be happy with. Except, noone has much reason to be happy with the Bruins right now.

Boston is a middling 8-8-2, a dramatic drop from its 47-20-15 finish in 2023-24, and Swayman has been part of the problem with his 5-6-2 record, 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage in 13 starts. He leads the league in goals allowed (42), and his goals saved above expected is minus-4.6, per Moneypuck, which puts him in 65th place through Thursday’s action -- not exactly the type of return you’d expect from someone with an $8.25 million cap hit.

Maybe missing the preseason put him behind the curve, contributing to his shaky start, but he doesn’t seem to be stabilizing as the campaign goes on. To be fair, he does have his moments, but his good starts have been counterbalanced by disastrous ones, like allowing six goals on 22 shots en route to an 8-2 loss to Carolina on Oct. 31 or surrendering seven goals on 38 shots in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Swayman also just has a lot of uninspired starts sprinkled in there -- nine of his 13 outings have involved him surrendering at least three goals.

Maybe it’s the pressure of the contract getting to him, especially with how much he appeared to have to battle to get that deal. There’s a big mental aspect to goaltending, so it’s not hard to see how a slow start, coupled with the new deal, and perhaps even the absence of his longtime friend and goaltending partner Ullmark, could all snowball to create this outcome. Whatever the case, though, Boston is in waters that have been rare for it since the start of the cap era: They have a problem between the pipes.

Colorado has endured its own goaltending issues, but at least the Avalanche are tied for 10th offensively with 3.47 goals per game and could do even better now that their forward corps is largely healthy. They’re still missing Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Ross Colton (foot), but Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) and Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) are all back, giving them far more options than they’ve had in a while.

This is being written before Friday’s game against Washington, which is set to see the return of Nichushkin, but it looks like the tentative plan is to run two elite lines. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen typically play together, giving the Avalanche one nearly unstoppable unit, but instead, Colorado is slated to break them up, putting MacKinnon with Lehkonen and Drouin while Rantanen will share the ice with Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. If that works out, then it could make things extremely tough on the opposition's defense. It’s a luxury the Avalanche arguably couldn’t afford earlier in the season because the quality of the linemates for MacKinnon and Rantanen wouldn’t have been sufficient to split them, but at this point, it’s something they can experiment with.

It also means Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko are now firmly in the bottom six. There was an opportunity for one or both to show what they could do with greater responsibilities when the team was ravaged by injuries, but neither stepped up. At this stage, it seems reasonable to project that Ivan and Kovalenko won’t have significant fantasy value this year, but at least they’re still okay complimentary pieces for the Avalanche.

All-in-all, Colorado’s offense looks strong at this point. The Avalanche are already on a roll, winning four of their past five games, and Colorado could continue to shine from here.

Anaheim Ducks – Mon @ DAL, Tue @ CHI, Fri vs BUF

You can get whiplash going from a conversation about the Avalanche’s offense to Anaheim’s. MacKinnon has 33 points through 17 games by himself. That equals the combined point totals of the Ducks’ top four scorers -- Troy Terry (11 points), Mason McTavish (eight), Leo Carlsson (seven) and Ryan Strome (seven).

The Ducks are consequently unlikely to generate much offense when they play in Dallas on Monday, but Anaheim might have more success in Chicago on Tuesday and when hosting Buffalo on Friday.

Health will be a factor in that. McTavish has missed the Ducks’ past two games because of an upper-body injury, but he’s day-to-day, so there’s a real chance he’ll be fine for next week’s action.

Even with him back, though, the Ducks need help on offense. A resurgence of Trevor Zegras would be the most obvious boost. However, he had just 15 points in 31 contests in 2023-24 and has diminished further to just three points through 15 appearances this season -- a far cry from his back-to-back 60-plus point campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He’s still just 23 years old, so it seems wrong to suggest he’s washed up, but then what is the problem?

First off, his lone goal this campaign was scored on an empty net, so you’d have to go back to April 13 to find the last time he beat an NHL goaltender in a regular-season game. He’s averaging 6.3 shots per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which is down from 8.1 in 2021-22 and 7.2 in 2022-23, so that doesn’t help. Seven of his 27 shots this year have been fired from a high-danger position, which puts him below the league average of 7.9 among forwards. All that’s bad, but not to the extent where he should have literally zero goals against goaltenders.

Moneypuck gives him an xG of 3.6, he has a PDO of 951 along with exactly zero secondary assists and his IPP of 42.9 is leagues below his career average. All that suggests some of his offensive woes are due to poor luck. Still, three points in 15 appearances is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him having a good campaign even if the luck was balanced.

Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there, and there are some indications that he’s been shifting to a more complete game despite his lack of offense, as Patrick Present of The Hockey News recently noted. Plus, he’s still young, and when coupled with him attempting to adjust his game, some growing pains are understandable. Don’t expect this to be a big campaign from him, but also don’t write him off yet.

Boston Bruins – Mon vs CBJ, Thu vs UTA, Sat @ DET

We talked about Swayman’s woes up top. Perhaps it will help him that the Bruins’ opponents next week rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of goals per game. Boston is set to host the Blue Jackets on Monday and Utah HC on Thursday before playing in Detroit on Saturday.

Swayman is the headline issue for the Bruins, but he isn’t the only one. The forward corps is also leaving something to be desired. We’ve seen better out of David Pastrnak (eight goals and 17 points through 18 games) and Brad Marchand (five goals and 13 points), but both are doing well enough, even when measured against the high standards they’re held to. The problem is no other player on the team has reached double digits in points.

Elias Lindholm, who signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract over the summer, was the Bruins’ big offseason get to solidify the team up the middle. However, he hasn’t been that great. After scoring two goals and five points over his first three games with Boston, Lindholm has been limited to four assists across his past 15 outings. To be fair, he’s known for his two-way game, and his relative CF% and FF% are outstanding at plus-8.8 and plus-12.2, respectively. Still, you’d like to see more scoring out of him when he’s spending almost all of his 5-on-5 time alongside at least one of Pastrnak and Marchand.

Pavel Zacha has left something to be desired too with three goals and seven points through 18 outings after finishing 2023-24 with 59 points. He might be heating up, though. Zacha has two goals and four points through his past four appearances, so perhaps he can carry that momentum into next week, especially given the mediocre nature of Boston’s upcoming competition.

Chicago Blackhawks – Tue vs ANA, Thu vs FLA, Sat @ PHI

Chicago will host the Ducks and the Panthers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida is a tough team, but the Ducks and the Flyers haven’t looked good so far in 2024-25.

Not that the Blackhawks have impressed either with their 6-10-1 record. Petr Mrazek has largely held his own with a 2.79 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances, which are solid numbers when you consider that Chicago ranks 28th in xGA/60 (3.39), which suggests Mrazek hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates defensively.

They also haven’t helped Mrazek offensively. Chicago is tied for 29th with just 2.41 goals per game, and even Connor Bedard has left something to be desired with three goals and 13 points through 17 appearances. Bedard is on an eight-game goal-scoring slump with four assists in that span, but let’s not be too hard on him. He’s still just 19 years old, so some streaky play is expected, and he has a healthy enough 21 shots during that slump, so eventually he’ll break through.

I’m more disappointed in Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract over the summer to come to Chicago from Carolina and has been primarily used alongside Bedard. However, Teravainen hasn’t been able to generate much of anything in 5-on-5 play with the young star. The 30-year-old has four goals and eight points through 17 appearances with just two of those points (one goal) coming at even strength. Interesting, his 5-on-5 xG is also just one, so the issue isn’t exactly bad puck luck.

Bedard has also been tried with Taylor Hall and/or Tyler Bertuzzi, but significantly less often than Teravainen. Philipp Kurashev has seen significant time alongside Bedard as well, though Kurashev has just three goals and four points through 16 outings. That’s a massive drop from Kurashev’s 54-point showing in 2023-24, and the decline is largely due to a lack of assists.

The line mixing is likely to continue to happen as long as Chicago’s offense remains cold. In the long run, it would be nice to see Kurashev and Bedard rekindle some of their 2023-24 chemistry -- they showed up together on the scoresheet 25 times last season. If we start seeing some of that, then Kurashev would become a good buy-low candidate.

Dallas Stars – Mon vs ANA, Wed vs SJS, Sat @ TBL

Dallas will start the week by hosting the lowly Ducks and Sharks on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Stars will then travel to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning on Saturday.

Matt Duchene will look to extend his recent success during that stretch. He has a phenomenal eight goals and 17 points across his past 10 appearances, including two goals and five points over his last two games. He’s been seeing time alongside Mason Marchment, who is also on fire with two goals and seven points over his past two outings, so that duo could do a lot of damage, especially against rebuilding squads like Anaheim and San Jose.

At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas could use more out of Roope Hintz. His six goals and 10 points through 15 outings aren’t bad, but it’s below the pace Dallas has come to expect after seeing Hintz record at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of his previous three campaigns. Hintz did endure a four-game scoring drought from Oct. 26-Nov. 7, but there’s a silver lining here because he’s found the back of the net twice over his past three games, so perhaps the worst is over.

The action is also spread out enough that Jake Oettinger might start in all three of those games. He’s 8-3-0 with a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 11 appearances in 2024-25. He’s also coming off two really strong victories, stopping 43 of 46 shots in blowout wins against Pittsburgh and Boston.

Detroit Red Wings – Mon @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs BOS

The Red Wings will play in San Jose on Monday before hosting the Islanders on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Detroit will be looking to gain some ground after a mediocre 7-7-1 start.

Detroit has to be disappointed with Vladimir Tarasenko, who inked a two-year, $9.5 million contract over the summer but has just two goals and four points through 14 appearances. This one is a bit of a “the chicken or the egg” problem. Tarasenko is averaging just 13:41 of ice time while typically serving on the third line alongside Jonatan Berggren and Marco Kasper. That’s not a recipe for success or the top six role many envisioned when he signed his deal. At the same time, he hasn’t done anything to force himself into a bigger role. From Oct. 22-Nov. 2, he appeared in five games without even recording a single shot.

You’re not going to move up in the lineup with that kind of play. On the plus side, he has logged an assist and seven shots over his past two outings, so maybe we’re witnessing the start of him getting some going. I’m skeptical, but it’s worthy of monitoring.

Detroit could certainly use another source of secondary scoring. The Red Wings rank 28th offensively with just 2.47 goals per game. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have done fine with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively, through 15 appearances and Patrick Kane is holding his own at 35, providing three goals and 10 points. The rest of the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, though, and no one aside from maybe Tarasenko jumps out to me as a struggling forward to watch.

That includes Michael Rasmussen. He was taken with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he has never even reached the 35-point mark and has just two goals and four points in 15 outings in 2024-25. He’s a towering presence, but at the age of 25, I think it’s fair to believe that the offense isn’t coming.

Edmonton Oilers – Mon @ MTL, Tue @ OTT, Thu vs MIN, Sat vs COL

The Oilers will open the week with road games in Montreal on Monday and Ottawa on Tuesday. They’ll then return to Edmonton to host the Wild on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday.

Edmonton had a mixed start to the season in part because of inconsistent offensive production, but it’s okay now: Connor McDavid remembered that he’s Connor McDavid. The superstar has posted three straight multi-point efforts, causing him to jump to six goals and 19 points through 14 appearances despite a weirdly human start in which he recorded three goals and 10 points in his first 11 outings -- good for others, not for him.

If McDavid has found his grove, then Edmonton is in a far better position, but the Oilers do still have some areas of concern. Stuart Skinner is still a mixed bag with a 5-5-1 record, 3.22 GAA and .881 save percentage in 11 outings. You’ll likely remember that Skinner had a terrible start to 2023-24 before turning a corner, and it could be argued that his Nov. 24 25-save shutout over Washington was when everything started working out for him last year. In other words, we’re getting to roughly the same stage of the year, and we’ll have to see if Skinner can once again find his rhythm or if he doesn’t enjoy that same kind of turnaround in 2024-25.

Edmonton’s offseason attempts at deepening the offense also haven’t paid off yet. Jeff Skinner has just three goals and six points while Viktor Arvidsson has two goals and five points. Arvidsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, so we might not see him this week. Meanwhile, Skinner has been relegated to the fourth line recently. Skinner has had a weird career full of amazing highs and significant lows. There’s consequently no guarantee that a turnaround is forthcoming this year, but if he does get another look on Edmonton’s top six, which I think is just a matter of time, then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

San Jose Sharks – Mon vs DET, Wed @ DAL, Thu @ STL, Sat vs BUF

I like to highlight teams who are set to play four games in a week over those with three or two games on the docket, but there aren’t many examples of that upcoming. San Jose is one of the exceptions. The Sharks’ busy schedule will begin by hosting the Red Wings on Monday. They’ll then play in Dallas on Wednesday and St. Louis on Thursday before returning home to face the Sabres on Saturday.

Naturally, if you’re going to watch Sharks hockey, the player you’ll be most interested in is Macklin Celebrini. Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he was out from Oct. 12-Nov. 2 due to a lower-body injury. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly quiet since, providing two goals Nov. 7 but also being held off the scoresheet entirely in his other four appearances dating back to his Nov. 5 return.

It's too small of a sample size to read too much into it, but Celebrini is a tremendous talent who is averaging 19:25 of ice time and has recorded 20 shots over six outings in 2024-25, so I expect him to start producing at a good pace as the campaign progresses.

In the meantime, Mikael Granlund has done his part. He has seven goals and 18 points in 18 games to lead the Sharks offensively this season. A lot of that was due to him recording five goals and 12 points across seven outings from Oct. 17-28, though. He’s been fine since, but his two goals and five points over his past eight contests are a noticeable decline. There might be some merit to selling him high, but I think his goal-scoring pace, which would lead to him finishing with 32 markers, has actual merit.

He’s never reached the 30-goal milestone before and finished 2023-24 with just 12 goals, but he’s traditionally been a very conservative shooter. That’s changed in a big way this year -- he's averaging a career-high 9.9 shots per 60 minutes, and that includes 14 high-danger shots, which puts him on track for 64, up from 44 last year. His increase in shots also means that his 10.9 shooting percentage isn’t significantly off his career average (10.3) despite his big jump in goals.

Granlund and Celebrini are currently centering different lines, but they share the ice on the power play. Although Sharks rank 23rd in terms of power-play percentage (16.4), that might improve as Celebrini gets going, which would also benefit Granlund.

Utah HC – Mon vs WAS, Thu @ BOS, Sat @ PIT, Sun @ TOR

Utah HC is another squad with four games on the schedule next week. The club will host the Capitals on Monday before a road trip that will place Utah HC in Boston on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Utah has been an interesting team. It got off to a 3-0-0 start fueled by some great offensive performances, but the scoring has cooled, and the club is now 7-6-3.

One positive is Mikhail Sergachev has messed well with his new team after being dealt from Tampa Bay in June. Sergachev has three goals and 11 points in 16 outings in 2024-25 while averaging 25:35 of ice time -- that'll be a career high if he maintains it for the full campaign. He also has a big power-play role and has collected three points (one goal) with the man advantage. It’s reasonable to project he’ll surpass the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career as long as he stays healthy.

Up front, Clayton Keller (six goals, 14 points), Dylan Guenther (seven goals, 13 points), Nick Schmaltz (12 assists) and Logan Cooley (two goals, 11 points) have been leading the charge, but none of them are especially hot right now. Nick Bjugstad is an interesting forward, though. He’s capable of being a solid secondary scorer, but he averaged just 13:20 of ice time this season, down from 17:27 in 2023-24. He did make his mark Wednesday, though, scoring his first two goals of the campaign to lead Utah to a 4-1 victory over Carolina. Bjugstad is getting a chance to play alongside Keller and Schmaltz, so he might be able to build off that strong showing.

That would help Utah, but what the club needs more than anything is reliability between the pipes. Although Connor Ingram has a respectable 6-3-3 record, his 3.40 GAA and .879 aren’t inspiring. Meanwhile, Karel Vejmelka is just 1-3-0, but he has a 2.37 GAA and a .926 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vejmelka get more work, perhaps leading to him starting in at least two of Utah’s games next week.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – UTAH HOCKEY CLUB – Team Preview

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 20:00:14 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 11: Arizona Coyotes right wing Clayton Keller (9) chews on his mouth guard while waiting for the face off during a game between the Arizona Coyotes and the St. Louis Blues on February 11 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)}

The last season in Arizona, before moving to Utah, was not successful as the Coyotes finished the season with 77 points (36-41-5), leaving them in sixth place in the Central Division. While they finished 21 points out of a playoff spot, the Coyotes did perform better than expected. Arizona ranked 23rd with 48.0% Corsi and 48.1% of expected goals. On the power play, the Coyotes ranked 16th with 7.96 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty killing ranked 27th with 8.94 goals against per 60 minutes. They did not have enough top-end talent to compete with the best teams in the league, but the Coyotes could have easily been one of the worst, so finishing in 27th place overall felt like a bit of a win. Things were not great in Arizona and should be better with the move to Utah, especially if it means that the team has the financial wherewithal to compete.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The big change is that the Arizona Coyotes moved to Utah, where they haven’t settled on a long-term team name, so they are going with Utah HC for the time being. Aside from the franchise moving to a new city, the hockey team stayed with a decent amount of continuity. The top 11 scorers from last year’s team remain with the club. The 12th was the defenceman J.J. Moser, who was traded to Tampa Bay as part of the deal for defenceman Mikhail Sergachev. Utah signed checking centre Kevin Stenlund who had just won a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers. Utah also bolstered its defence by trading to get John Marino from New Jersey and then signing Ian Cole, who played with Vancouver last season.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Since the Arizona Coyotes finished 21 points out of the playoffs last season, it would be asking a lot for Utah to make up that deficit. The moves to acquire Sergachev and Marino should give their defence more consistency and if the goaltending is up to par, then there just might be a chance for the Coyotes to play meaningful games down the stretch. To get there, it will require Utah’s top players to remain at their best, but moreover the young players will need to take big steps forward. If, for example, Logan Cooley is a star in his second season, that development could help move the Coyotes into a more competitive tier.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? In relative terms, it would be difficult for Utah HC to have dramatically worse results, even though they may have overachieved somewhat last season. Even if the season went the wrong way, that could put Utah HC into position to earn a higher draft pick. With a new home and new ownership, they can continue to build the right way, and not rush into a misguided move to improve now. Additionally, there is a brighter future for the team in Arizona because the ownership appears committed to building a contender, something that was not happening in Arizona, where the Coyotes were playing home games in a college hockey rink.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: He has already been mentioned but Logan Cooley is a prime candidate to take a step forward in his second NHL season. Cooley is a creative offensive player who plays at a high speed. While he had some ups and downs as a rookie, it looked like he was finding his groove late in the season, which should set him up for a significant jump in Year two. If he gets the chance to play with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on the top line, Cooley could see a big boost in production.

FORWARD

Clayton Keller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	35	45	80	0.99

A crafty playmaking winger, Keller has really come into his own in the past two seasons, tallying 70 goals and 162 points, one of 18 players across the league to hit those totals in those two years. He has grown comfortable launching one-timers from the right faceoff circle on power play and had 30 points with the man advantage in 2023-2024. He uses his quickness to dart in and out of openings before the defence knows what has happened. Because he is not a massive physical presence, Keller tends to do his best work when he can avoid traffic, either in transition or on the power play. That’s not to say that he can’t score otherwise, but he uses his savvy to find pockets of space where he can unleash his increasingly dangerous shot. Also, when he gets in alone on a goaltender, Keller has lightning quick hands that can leave goalies grasping for air. As the bona fide star of the Utah team, Keller needs to keep producing at this elite level and hope that he can get more support in the coming seasons. As it is, he has made a good connection with Nick Schmaltz on the opposite wing of the top line. Last season that duo had a rotating cast of centres including Barrett Hayton, Nick Bjugstad, Jack McBain, and Logan Cooley and it would figure that Keller’s production could get even better if one of those players, ideally Cooley, could stick in the role full-time. In any case, Keller should be looking at 30-35 goals and 75-80 points in the franchise’s first season in Utah.

Nick Schmaltz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	24	36	60	0.74

Even though Schmaltz finished last season with a career-high 61 points, he was more productive on a per-game basis in the previous two campaigns, during which he played just 63 games. Schmaltz was a pass-first player when he started in the league but has grown into a more balanced offensive role, though he is not ever going to be a high-volume shooter. What hasn’t changed is that Schmaltz has always been a creative playmaker with soft hands, so it should come as little surprise that he has enjoyed his most success skating on a line with Keller in recent seasons. When they are cooking, they can really work some magic together. Schmaltz does not get terribly involved in physical play. Across the past five seasons, he has a total of 70 hits. There have been 527 players to skate in at least 200 games over that time and only nine – four of whom did not play in 2023-2024 – have fewer hits than Schmaltz. Even so, the puck does tend to move in the right direction when he is on the ice, so Schmaltz is a valuable contributor on this team. He should continue at a similar level of production which would mean 20-25 goals and 60 points in 2024-2025.

Logan Cooley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	27	37	64	0.78

The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Cooley jumped to the NHL after spending one season at the University of Minnesota, where he shredded the competition, putting up 60 points in 39 games. Cooley plays the game at high speed and uses his acceleration to create chances but also just to go hard to the net because that’s where goals are scored. It’s not surprising that Cooley struggled on faceoffs as a rookie, winning just 38.0 percent because that’s fairly common. He also has room to improve his play-driving as the Coyotes were controlling 47.4 percent of shot attempts and 48.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Cooley on the ice. Despite those areas for improvement, Cooley was one of four rookies to score 20 goals last season and ranked fourth among rookies with 44 points, but he finished with a flourish to get there, putting up nine goals and 14 points in his last 16 games. That kind of production offers a glimpse into what could await Cooley in the future, because he has high-end offensive instincts and could be in position to jump higher on the Utah depth chart in 2024-2025. In his second NHL season, Cooley should see an increased offensive output, with 20-25 goals and 55 points a fair expectation, yet that could end up being low if Cooley picks up where he left off last season.

Dylan Guenther

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	29	27	56	0.74

The ninth pick in the 2021 Draft, Guenther has quickly established a reputation for his rocket shot, and it lifted him to 18 goals and 35 points in 45 games after he was called up from the American Hockey League, where he had 10 goals and 28 points in 29 games. Half of Guenther’s 18 goals were scored on the power play, the 21-year-old already making himself indispensable with the man advantage. Knowing that his shot is his calling card, Guenther does a fine job getting into soft spots in the defensive zone coverage and getting there ready to fire the puck at a moment’s notice. There were 375 forwards that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season. Of that group, Guenther ranked 71st in shots per 60 minutes (8.51). That should be on the low end of where he is headed in his career, because when you have a weapon like Guenther’s shot, there is little point in keeping it holstered. That doesn’t mean shooting for the sake of shooting, but when a player can bury the puck from distance, it becomes very important to provide consistent opportunities for that player to use that skill. For his first full season in the National Hockey League, Guenther should be able to contribute 25 goals and 50 points and that might even be on the low end if he happens to find a quality line for regular playing time. His most common linemates last season were Cooley and Crouse, which is not bad, but it looks like there should be some competition for scoring roles in Utah this season.

Lawson Crouse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	22	21	43	0.54

A power forward who has scored at least 20 goals in three straight seasons, Crouse has also recorded more than 150 hits for six years running. Crouse is 6-foot-4 and skates with a powerful stride. He will bang bodies and, when needed, drop the gloves, but that is not a big feature to his game as he has had a dozen fights in his past five seasons. As his game has matured, he has improved his ability to get into scoring position and is ready to shoot the puck when he gets there. Having had some offensive success, there is greater confidence in Crouse’s game now, and while he is not the type of player to create a ton of chances, he is fine complement to players who can get the puck into the offensive zone and can use Crouse’s net-front presence to finish the play. Crouse’s most common linemates last season were Nick Bjugstad, a big centre, and Matias Maccelli, a playmaking winger who could benefit from those large linemates. The trio outscored opponents 23-16, controlling 55.0 percent of expected goals, during five-on-five play last season. Look for Crouse to continue providing complementary offence, including 20-plus goals and 40-plus points for Utah in 2024-2025.

Matias Maccelli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	16	41	57	0.70

A smaller winger, Maccelli has still established that he can be a valuable playmaker, fitting in the middle six as well as adding skill to the power play. In the past two seasons, the Coyotes outscored opponents 87-73 with Maccelli on the ice during five-on-five play. His possession numbers have been okay, including 48.6 percent Corsi percentage and 51.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. Maccelli is shifty and uses his edges to change direction and create space, which he tends to need, but once he gains that space, he has outstanding vision and finds his linemates for some of the easiest tap-ins around the net. While Maccelli is not big, he does use a wide base to protect the puck and that is a key part of his game in the offensive zone, because holding the puck longer allows him to generate better scoring chances, usually for his linemates. Last season, he was the playmaking force on a line with Bjugstad and Crouse, but if there is an upgrade on one of those spots, that could give Maccelli even more scoring upside. Heading into his third full season in the NHL, Maccelli should be able to score 15 goals and 55-60 points, which makes him a really valuable piece for the Utah Hockey Club.

Barrett Hayton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	10	21	31	0.44

Following what amounted to a breakthrough season in 2022-2023, when he had career highs of 19 goals and 43 points, Hayton managed just 10 points in 33 games last season, his season upended by several injuries. Considering that his most common linemates were Schmaltz and Keller, that production was woefully insignificant. When he’s on his game, Hayton has good speed and can attack the net. There have been flashes, but it’s still a work in progress because he hasn’t truly done it for a full season. At the same time, Hayton has also delivered strong play-driving numbers, which at least offers some hope that there is more to the story than 84 points in 209 career games. It’s one thing to see Hayton manage just 10 points in 33 games last season, but then he had a Corsi percentage of 54.2 and an expected goals percentage of 55.1. Those are underlying numbers that suggest a quality player and it’s up to the team, and Hayton himself, to figure out how to translate that into production that can make the difference in games. At this point in his career, 24-year-old Hayton should be expected to put up 30 points, something he has only accomplished once, but there is room for him to score significantly more, depending on which linemates he skates with most frequently.

Nick Bjugstad

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	17	18	35	0.44

Returning to Arizona last season after finishing the previous year in Edmonton, 32-year-old centre Nick Bjugstad delivered one of his best seasons, ending up with 22 goals and 45 points. Those were the second highest totals for him in both categories in his entire career. Bjugstad also played a career-high 17:27 per game, so the opportunity was provided to him and he responded favourably. At 6-foot-6, Bjugstad has towering size, which serves him well both in a defensive role and when trying to carve out space in front of the opposing goal. He appears to have found a fit with this franchise. In 135 games with Bjugstad on the ice in the past two seasons, the Coyotes outscored opponents 85-65, and this while starting less than 40 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. He needed some lofty percentages (103.1 PDO) to get there, but Bjugstad has had a positive impact, and he has made the team more competitive. He is a useful option in the middle six and should fulfill that role again in Utah. While he could get overtaken by younger options, it would still be fair to expect 15 goals and 35 points from Bjugstad in 2024-2025.

Alex Kerfoot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	29	41	0.50

A durable forward who has not missed a game in the past four seasons, Kerfoot played a career-high 17:26 per game last season and finished with 45 points, including 12 on the power play, his most power play points since the 2018-2019 season. While Kerfoot is a solid complementary contributor, and his playmaking skills allow him to put some points on the board, he is a downright reluctant shooter. Among the 375 forwards to play at least 500 minutes last season, Kerfoot’s 4.15 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five ranked 363rd. His 0.88 primary assists per 60 minutes ranked 48th, so there are some numbers to back up the idea that he would much prefer to have his teammates do the scoring. After several seasons playing primarily on the wing, Kerfoot took 862 faceoffs last season, which ranked second on the Coyotes behind Nick Bjugstad. Of course, none of the Coyotes players that took even 100 draws finished on the right side of 50 percent at the dot. Kerfoot is a smart and versatile player, albeit one who is not overpowering and there may be a few too many forwards on this roster who find themselves at a disadvantage when the game gets more physical. The expectation for 2024-2025 should be that Kerfoot will play every game and contribute maybe a dozen goals and finish with 40-plus points, a threshold he has crossed four times in seven NHL seasons.

Jack McBain

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	15	24	0.31

A big, physical player, McBain is one of five forwards to accrue more than 500 hits across the past two seasons. He also has recorded eight fights, so the 6-foot-3 centre has established his path into the NHL with physical play. He is more than just a big body, however, as McBain’s possession stats improved notably last season, and his 49.4 percent Corsi and 50.3 percent expected goals percentage were respectable for a player who starts more of his shifts in the defensive zone and whose most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and Michael Carcone. Furthermore, the Coyotes outscored opponents by 38-31 during five-on-five play with McBain on the ice. Those results are fantastic from a fourth line forward so it is conceivable that McBain could climb into the middle six though, based on current personnel, he might not be able to do it at centre. A safe projection for McBain would be along the lines of double-digit goals and 30 points, but there is also a world in which he produces more than that. When that production gets paired with McBain’s lofty hit totals, it does give him a chance to have fantasy relevance. It takes a lot of hits to make up for such modest scoring numbers, but if McBain gets up to 35 points, that starts to open the door in more leagues.

Michael Carcone

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	16	10	26	0.33

A late bloomer who just played his first full NHL season, the 28-year-old Carcone did deliver 21 goals for Arizona in 2023-2024, with his 1.45 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranking sixth among forwards that played at least 500 minutes. That came on the heels of scoring 31 goals and 85 points in 65 AHL games the season before, so he knows what he is doing in the offensive zone, and he is excellent in transition going on the attack. Carcone will take the puck to the net and has a goal-scorer’s release. The other end of the rink, however, is a legitimate area of concern as Carcone had the highest rate of shot attempts against, shots against, and expected goals against among Arizona forwards. That suspect defensive play makes it more challenging for Carcone to secure his spot in the lineup, but if he does manage to find a regular role, he should be able to deliver some points along the way. As a 5-foot-9 winger, Carcone is facing an uphill fight to hold a regular spot on the lower half of the depth chart, but if he has a relatively regular spot in the Utah lineup, Carcone could chip in 15-20 goals and 30-plus points.

DEFENCE

Mikhail Sergachev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	44	55	0.71

Coming off a broken leg last season, Sergachev had a career-best season in 2022-2023, recording 64 points, including 27 on the power play. He fell off that pace in 2023-2024 managing 19 points in 34 games but also getting outscored 33-17 during five-on-five play. He had horrific percentages, including an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.2 percent and an on-ice save percentage of .889, leaving him with a 95.1 PDO. There were 217 defencemen that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season and only three of them had a lower PDO than Sergachev, so it was certainly a buy-low situation for Utah when they acquired him from the Tampa Bay Lightning. In Arizona, Sergachev should continue to play a major role. He has averaged more than 22 minutes per game in each of the past three seasons and it would come as no surprise if he ended up adding a couple more minutes per game to his responsibilities on what is a relatively thin blueline group in Utah. Sergachev is physically strong and uses a wide base to effectively protect the puck. He can play a physical game and block shots but his greatest value for fantasy managers is if he is quarterbacking the top power play unit. If that’s the case, Sergachev ought to be able to produce 45-50 points, provided that he stays healthy. Before last season’s injury, his career had been marked by especially good health, so Sergachev should be counted on as a workhorse In 2024-2025.

Sean Durzi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	8	32	40	0.51

Acquired from the Los Angeles Kings last summer, Durzi stepped into a big role for the Coyotes, playing 22:43 per game, the highest average in his three NHL seasons. He finished with a career-high 41 points and blocked a career-high 160 shots. A right-shot puck-moving defenceman, Durzi has averaged 4.82 points per 60 minutes through his first three NHL seasons. There were 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes in those seasons and Durzi ranks 18th in points per 60 minutes. It is worth noting that Sergachev, Utah’s high-profile acquisition, ranks seventh with 5.90 points per 60. Nevertheless, Durzi plays with legitimate confidence on the offensive blueline and has a hard and accurate shot that allows him to score goals from long range. He played 91 games in the AHL, spread across two-plus seasons, before making the jump the Kings in 2021-2022. He has made steady progress in his first three seasons and should be in his prime right now. Although Durzi could lose time on the top power play unit, he is still likely to play big minutes for Utah and could very well partner with Sergachev. While his hit totals are nothing to write home about, Durzi could deliver 40 points and 150 hits in 2024-2025, which would offer plenty of value for fantasy managers.

Juuso Valimaki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	3	21	24	0.31

One of the better waiver acquisitions in recent seasons, Valimaki has shown that he is a legitimate NHL defenceman. He played a career-high 19:06 per game last season and was tops among Coyotes defencemen with Arizona controlling a team-high 52.5 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Valimaki on the ice. Valimaki had a dozen power play points in 2022-2023, but with Durzi rolling into town, he lost that power play role. He has good size and moves well, so it is easy to see how Valimaki fits on the Utah blueline, but it took some time before he could get a serious shot with regular minutes in the NHL. He is not especially physical, so that is always an area that could be improved upon, but the puck moves the right way when he is on the ice, at least relative to his teammates, and that is happening even though Valimaki starts more of his shifts in the defensive zone. It’s been a meteoric rise for Valimaki, who was claimed off waivers and by last season his most common defence partners were rookie Michael Kesselring and veteran Troy Stecher. With those partners, Valimaki is the one who would be considered the steady and reliable partner. It would be entirely reasonable for him to get more playing time, and could contribute about 25 points, but he is not likely to have a regular power play role and that puts a cap on his point projections.

GOAL

Connor Ingram

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	25	23	6	3	0.906	2.75

It feels like few goaltenders have been tested as much as Utah starter Connor Ingram. Despite performing as one of the most obvious minor-league standouts within the Tampa Bay system in his early career, he found himself shuttled between the AHL and ECHL before getting jettisoned for another franchise's system entirely. But after time spent in the league's Player Assistance Program for OCD, Ingram's career went on a steady rise; he moved from the minors in the Nashville depth chart to the Arizona Coyotes, where he earned a role as the team's best starter since the Antti Raanta-Darcy Kuemper tandem pre-pandemic. Just as he found his footing in the league, though, the team's relocation rumors finally came to a head - and he'll now have to prove that he can replicate his stellar numbers on a rebuilding squad in a brand-new town, absent the ever-swirling relocation and sale chatter but also absent the powerful underdog vibes that seemed to permeate Mullett Arena in Tempe.

Ingram was tied for the league lead in shutouts last season over his 50-game campaign, sitting above league average in every stat category despite playing for a team that went on a tumultuous ride on and off the ice. He showed a little bit of weakness from a technical standpoint when it came to his glove side, and his tendency to try to play it safe with conservative angles and flatter positioning didn't always pan out when the younger then-Coyotes defensive corps left him open to cross-ice challenges. But he looked far and away like the more consistent option for his team between himself and Karel Vejmelka, so expect to see the starts still heavily favoring Ingram up in the Utah snow.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Looking at teams with something to play for as season comes to close

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:30:02 +0000

Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Barring any postponements, the final day of the 2023-24 regular season with be Thursday. There are just 26 total games remaining before the playoffs get underway, so naturally there aren’t many teams to highlight for the final week. With that in mind, instead of picking out the teams with the most favorable schedules, I’m going to focus on the teams who have something left to play for this week. So, let’s dive into what the final days of the campaign will look like.

Please note that this week’s article is heavily skewed toward the Eastern Conference because there are still two playoff spots open while there isn’t much left to be decided in the West.

New York Islanders – MON VS NJD, WED VS PIT

The Islanders haven’t punched their playoff ticket, but they’re very likely to advance to the postseason. They have a 30-27-16 record, which is good for third in the Metropolitan Division.

They’ll play in New Jersey on Monday and host the Penguins on Wednesday. The Islanders can guarantee their playoff spot by picking up two points over those two contests. However, New York has a three-point advantage over the next closest non-playoff adversary, so there are scenarios where the Islanders can make the playoffs even if they go 0-2-0.

The Islanders’ task will be made more difficult if Noah Dobson remains out of the lineup. The defenseman has 10 goals and 70 points in 79 outings, but he missed Saturday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers due to an upper-body injury. Robert Bortuzzo dressed Saturday as a result of Dobson’s absence, but he’s not a replacement for the star blueliner -- Bortuzzo has no points through 25 appearances between St. Louis and the Islanders this season.

On the bright side for the Islanders, Brock Nelson is ending the campaign on a positive note. He scored twice Saturday to extend his point streak to three games. That gives the 32-year-old forward 32 markers and 65 points across 80 outings in 2023-24. He’ll almost certainly finish behind his 2022-23 mark of 75 points, but this is still the second-best campaign of his career in terms of total points.

If goal, Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin will likely split the final two contests. Assuming the Islanders make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts in Game 1. It’ll probably be Sorokin, but Varlamov has earned consideration thanks to his 2.66 GAA and .916 save percentage in 27 games, which tops Sorokin’s 2.99 GAA and .909 save percentage. The Islanders have also used Varlamov quite a bit recently, deploying him in seven of their past 11 games.

Washington Capitals – MON VS BOS, TUE @ PHI (BTB)

The Capitals made things tough for themselves by going 0-4-2 from March 28-April 7, but Washington might still be able to salvage the situation after winning its last three contests. The Capitals have 87 points (38-31-11), which puts them in the second wild-card seed. Detroit and Philadelphia are tied with Washington in points, but the Capitals have the edge in the tiebreaker over the Red Wings and a game in hand compared to Philadelphia. Additionally, Pittsburgh is one point shy of those three squads. All that is to say, Washington’s hold on its playoff spot is by the narrowest of margins.

The Capitals will host the Bruins on Monday and play in Philadelphia on Tuesday to conclude the season. Washington will make the playoffs if it wins both games. If the Capitals lose against the Bruins, then Tuesday’s season finale becomes a must-win and even then, it’s possible for the Capitals to miss the playoffs in the scenario where they lose Monday but beat the Flyers.

Alexander Ovechkin has been a major driver of the Capitals’ playoff push, scoring 22 goals and 35 points over his past 34 outings. However, he has slowed a little recently, providing a goal and an assist across Washington’s past four appearances, so his hot run might be over. The 38-year-old star has had a season of extreme highs and lows, but he’s done well overall, contributing 30 goals and 64 points in 77 outings.

Interestingly, it was Sonny Milano who served as Washington’s hero Saturday, providing two goals en route to a 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay. He has just 15 markers and 23 points in 47 appearances this season, but the 27-year-old also had a hat trick versus Carolina on March 22 and a four-game goal-scoring streak from March 1-9, so he can on occasion be a major factor and perhaps that will hold true during Washington’s final stretch. Still, his limited playing time puts a damper on his potential. Milano logged just 10:08 of ice time Saturday and has averaged 12:34 this season.

A safer bet for production over Washington’s last two games would be offensive defenseman John Carlson. This has been a strong season for him with nine goals and 51 points across 80 contests, and looked solid recently, supplying four goals and 13 points over his past 15 appearances.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS MTL, TUE @ MTL

The Red Wings suffered critical losses to Washington and Pittsburgh, but Detroit still has an opportunity to make the playoffs after earning a 5-4 overtime victory over Toronto on Saturday. Detroit is at 87 points (39-32-9), which puts the Red Wings in a tie with Washington for the second wild-card spot, though the Capitals control the tiebreaker, so Detroit would need to finish one point ahead of them to make the postseason. The Red Wings are narrowly ahead of Philadelphia, which has 87 points but has played in one more game than Detroit, and the Penguins, who have 86 points in 80 contests (37-31-12).

The Red Wings will finish the campaign with a home-and-away back-to-back against Montreal on Monday and Tuesday. The upside is the Canadiens are wrapping up a difficult season in which they’ve gone 30-36-14, so Detroit has a good chance of winning both contests. The downside is the Red Wings’ fate itself isn’t entirely in their hands -- Detroit can still miss the playoffs even if it wins both contests. Additionally, because Washington and Philadelphia will play each other and both teams would control the tiebreaker over Detroit, the Red Wings need to claim at least three out of four points over their final two games to have a mathematical chance of reaching the postseason.

Lucas Raymond is doing everything in his power to thrust the Red Wings into the postseason. The 22-year-old has contributed four goals and eight points over his active four-game scoring streak. His linemate Dylan Larkin has been right there with him, providing five goals and 10 points over his last seven outings. Look for that duo to continue to shine when Detroit faces Montreal.

Detroit’s bigger question is in goal. James Reimer started Saturday for the first time since March 28. The Red Wings got the win, but it was a mixed bag for the netminder, who stopped 32 of 36 shots. Meanwhile, Alex Lyon allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Penguins on Thursday and has been inconsistent recently while posting a 2-2-2 record, 2.83 GAA and .915 save percentage over his last six outings.

Ville Husso (lower body) suffered a setback while on an AHL conditioning stint, so he probably won’t be an option for the remainder of the campaign. That leaves Reimer and Lyon to split the final two starts. On the plus side, Montreal ranks 27th offensively with 2.80 goals per game, so the back-to-back set will be a favorable series for the Red Wings goaltenders.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE VS WAS

The Flyers were primed to make the playoffs before their 0-5-2 run from March 24-April 9. Philadelphia has rebounded by winning its last two games, though, leaving them with a 38-32-11 record. Philadelphia’s 87 points are tied with Washington and Detroit for the second wild-card seed, but the Flyers have played one more contest than either of them. The Flyers have also played one more game than Pittsburgh, which is trailing the main group by a point with a 37-31-12 record.

The Flyers’ final tilt is against Washington on Tuesday. They need to win against the Capitals to have a chance to make the playoffs, but even with a victory in that contest, Philadelphia will still miss the postseason if Detroit gets at least three points over its final two games or Pittsburgh wins its last two contests. Additionally, if Washington wins against Boston on Monday and then pushes the Flyers to overtime, then the Capitals would still finish ahead in the standings even if Philadelphia wins the outing.

Samuel Ersson is perhaps the biggest X-Factor going into Philadelphia’s final contest. He had a terrible stretch from March 14-April 9, posting a 2-5-2 record, 4.51 GAA and .829 save percentage in 10 outings, but he’s rebounded by stopping 44 of 45 shots over the Flyers’ last two outings. The Capitals aren’t a great team offensively, ranking 28th with 2.65 goals per game, so it’s plausible that Ersson will be able to extend his hot streak.

The Flyers will also be looking for Travis Konecny to continue his recent success. The 27-year-old has two goals and an assist over his past two outings and has set career highs this season with 33 goals and 68 points across 75 appearances. Noah Cates has done well too, collecting three goals and five points over his last six contests. He still has just 18 points in 58 appearances, which is down from 38 points in 2022-23, but at least the 25-year-old seems to be dialed in when it matters most.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS NSH, WED @ NYI

The Penguins seemed destined to miss the playoffs when they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina on March 7, but Pittsburgh forced itself back into the postseason conversation with a 7-0-2 stretch from March 26-April 11. However, the Penguins suffered a setback Saturday with a 6-4 loss to the Bruins.

Pittsburgh is now 37-31-12, putting the Penguins one point behind Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia in the battle for the second wild-card position. The Penguins will host Nashville on Monday and finish the campaign with a road contest against the Islanders on Wednesday. With Philadelphia and Washington set to play Tuesday, the Penguins need at least three of four points over their final two contests to have a mathematical shot, and even then, they’d need help from the tiebreaker system. Realistically, Pittsburgh will likely need to win both of its last two games to get into the postseason.

Sidney Crosby is sure to do his best to push the Penguins the rest of the way. He’s been a huge factor in their surge, supplying eight goals and 21 points over his past 11 outings. Crosby is up to 41 goals and 90 points in 80 appearances, which is extremely impressive production for a player who is 36 years old. Evgeni Malkin, who is 37, hasn’t been quite as effective this campaign with 25 goals and 64 points through 80 games, but he’s also gotten hot down the stretch with seven goals and 12 points over his past nine outings, so look for him to also show up on the scoresheet over the Penguins’ last two games.

The question is who will start in net. The Penguins have used Alex Nedeljkovic in each of their last 12 games, but he’s posted a 4.21 GAA and an .854 save percentage over his past four outings. To be fair, Tristan Jarry didn’t look good when he stepped into Saturday’s 6-4 loss to Boston in relief of Nedeljkovic -- Jarry stopped 12 of 14 shots in 26:27 of ice time -- but it might be that Nedeljkovic is running on fumes at this point, so maybe Jarry is still the better option, at least for Pittsburgh’s next contest Monday.

Dallas Stars – WED VS STL

The Stars have secured home-ice advantage through the Western Conference Championship, but Dallas can still go one further by claiming the Presidents’ Trophy. Dallas has 11 points (51-21-9), putting the Stars one point behind the Rangers (54-23-4). Carolina and Boston are tied at 109 points over 80 contests, so either team has an outside chance of winning the Presidents’ Trophy by winning each of its last two games.

Dallas’ final contest will be a home match versus St. Louis on Wednesday. Note that the Rangers control the tiebreaker over Dallas in the Presidents’ Trophy battle, so Dallas only has a chance to claim the title if it earns a victory over the Blues.

Even though the Stars still have something to play for, it wouldn’t be shocking if they rest some players Wednesday. For example, backup Scott Wedgewood might get the nod, both to keep him fresh in case he’s needed during the playoffs and to give Jake Oettinger a breather after starting in four straight and seven of Dallas’ past eight. The Blues rank 24th offensively with 2.86 goals per game, so Wednesday’s tilt would be a favorable matchup for Wedgewood.

Tyler Seguin, who didn’t play April 6 because of workload management related to his lower-body injury, might also get the game off. It wouldn’t be shocking if others were rested too, but I don’t think Ryan Suter and Joe Pavelski will be among those who get the game off. It might seem logical to give the two 39-years-olds a breather before the playoffs, but Suter and Pavelski have active iron man streaks of 452 and 313 games, respectively. Perhaps they’ll get less ice time than usual, though. We also might see Dallas give significant minutes in its finale to Logan Stankoven, who has six goals and 14 points in 23 contests, so don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old rookie has a productive game.

New York Rangers – MON @ OTT

With a 54-23-4 record, the Rangers will secure the Presidents’ Trophy with a victory against Ottawa on Monday. If New York loses the contest, the Rangers will still claim the title if Dallas loses its season finale, Boston is held to three of four points over its last two outings and Carolina is limited to two of four points over its final two games. The reason why the Bruins would need to do better than Carolina, even though both squads have 109 points through 80 contests, is because Boston is in a worse position when it comes to the tiebreaker.

Like Dallas, New York might rest players despite its final game having some relevance. Jonathan Quick will probably get the nod against the Senators. Quick has done well this campaign with an 18-6-2 record, but he has struggled recently, allowing 12 goals on 92 shots over his past three starts. Meanwhile, Ottawa has won eight of its last 12 contests, so while the Senators won’t be making the playoffs, they might still give Quick some trouble.

Outside of starting Quick, some of the Rangers’ top players, such as Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox might be scratched. Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin have participated in 165 and 163 consecutive games, respectively, so both of them will probably be in the lineup. Panarin is also two goals away from hitting 50 for the first time in his career, so keep an eye out for that. Chris Kreider will also likely be in the lineup. He needs just one more goal to reach 40 and this would be his first 82-game campaign if he dresses.

Arizona Coyotes – WED VS EDM

I’m throwing the Coyotes in here even though they long since have been mathematically eliminated. Arizona did have a 23-19-3 record through Jan. 22, but a horrific 0-12-2 run from Jan. 24-Feb. 29 effectively ended any hope the Coyotes had of making the playoffs. Still, there is a grim reason to note them: When Arizona hosts Edmonton on Wednesday, it could very well be the franchise’s last game before moving to Salt Lake City (the move isn’t official as of the time of writing but seems all but certain).

To some extent, the Coyotes’ probable move felt inevitable. Since the then Phoenix Coyotes declared bankruptcy in May 2009, it’s been one saga after another with the team and never since that date, have they looked truly secure in their home in Arizona. The fact that the Coyotes have been playing in a college arena since 2022 has made the situation look particularly untenable unless a long-term solution was secured. Even still, this is a sad ending for the dedicated fanbase in Arizona. It might not be the end -- even now there’s talk that the NHL might put an expansion team in Arizona after the Coyotes move if Alex Meruelo, who will sell the Coyotes, can secure a new arena deal -- but it is the end of a chapter.

With that in mind, Wednesday’s otherwise meaningless game has taken on a new meaning. Barring one more twist in this saga that prevents the anticipated move from happening, the contest will stand as a chance for the players to say goodbye to a fanbase that has been with them through all the turmoil. I would expect the Coyotes to play with a lot of heart under the circumstances. In particular, I’m interested to see how Clayton Keller, who was drafted by Arizona in 2016 and now serves as the squad’s top forward, does. He has been held off the scoresheet for his past three games, but Keller has still contributed 33 goals and 73 points in 76 outings overall, and I think the odds are high he will make his presence felt in the finale.

Another player to watch will be Josh Doan. He’s the son of Shane Doan, who was the captain of the franchise from 2003-17 and remains the franchise’s career leader in games (1,540), goals (402), assists (570) and points (972), among other categories. The younger Doan has given Coyotes fans a taste of the future recently, scoring four goals and eight points over nine games. Given his deep family connection to this franchise, this might be an especially emotional goodbye for him. It is also worth noting the grim symmetry here. Like Josh, Shane Doan saw his franchise move, in his case from Winnipeg to Phoenix, after appearing in just one season.

NHL: DADOUN – THE WEEK AHEAD (February 12th to February 18th) – Washington fading in playoff race and faces tough questions – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 10 Feb 2024 18:37:42 +0000

Early this season, Washington seemed to be able to manufacture wins despite not looking great on paper. The Capitals had a 17-9-4 record through Dec. 21, but at that time they had a minus-8 goal differential. Washington was doing fine defensively, ranking 10th with 2.73 goals allowed per game, but it was 30th offensively, averaging just 2.43 goals per contest. Washington compensated for that by having one of the league’s best records in one-goal games (10-1-4).

The question at the time was if Washington’s success was mere smoke and mirrors. At this point, it’s fair to say that it was. The Capitals are now 22-20-7. They’re seven points back in the Wild Card race, which might not sound like much, but it’s a mountain to climb this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, their goal differential has gotten even worse, dropping to minus-36.

If Washington can’t find a way to turn things around soon, then the Capitals will need to consider retooling. What would look like, though? Trading Alexander Ovechkin is almost certainly a nonstarter. He’s not having that strong of a season anyway (11 goals and 33 points in 46 games) and at the age of 38, teams might be reluctant to take on his $9.5 million cap hit through 2025-26. Even if he was playing well, though, he’s the face of the franchise and has a no-movement clause, so there would be a lot of barriers to moving him.

TJ Oshie? His $5.75 million cap hit through 2024-25 likely would give contenders pause too. The 37-year-old has just eight goals and 12 points through 32 contests. Tom Wilson agreed to a seven-year, $45.5 million contract in August, so Washington probably won’t trade him, and Dylan Strome is signed to a $5 million cap hit through 2027-28. Meanwhile, Nicklas Backstrom is on the long-term injured reserve and isn’t likely to play again this season while Evgeny Kuznetsov is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, so neither of them is likely to come up in serious trade conversations.

There are still a couple of players who might be dealt. Anthony Mantha’s 16 goals and 24 points in 45 outings isn’t good relative to his $5.7 million cap hit, but at least his contract ends at the end of this campaign, so there might be contenders willing to part with a pick for him if Washington retains half his remaining salary. Max Pacioretty has a goal and seven points in 14 contests since coming back from his Achilles injury. That’s not great, but there might still be a team interested in him as a secondary scorer and veteran presence.

Those kinds of moves won’t fundamentally change Washington, though, they’ll just leave the Capitals with minor consolation prizes for their lost season. At some point, though, Washington needs to decide if a larger rebuild is necessary. The Capitals are likely reluctant to go down that path while Ovechkin is still under contract, but the alternative might be added years of futility before finally beginning the process.

Anaheim Ducks – TUE @ MTL, THU @ OTT, SAT @ TOR

The Ducks will be in Canada next week, playing in Montreal on Tuesday, Ottawa on Thursday and Toronto on Saturday. The 26-15-8 Maple Leafs figure to be a tough adversary, but Montreal and Ottawa are far removed from the playoff picture.

Those upcoming two games against struggling opponents give Troy Terry an opportunity to extend his hot streak. The 26-year-old has recorded at least a point in six consecutive contests, totaling four goals and six assists. Adam Henrique has been on a run too, providing five goals and 14 points across his last 12 appearances, which gives him 15 goals and 33 points in 49 outings in 2023-24.

Pay special attention to Henrique because there’s a good chance he’ll get traded before the deadline. Granted, that’s not until March 8, but we’ve already seen a couple of major moves, so there’s no guarantee that teams looking to upgrade will wait before pulling the trigger. Especially with Henrique doing so well recently, Anaheim might be able to get a decent return for him. How that impacts Henrique remains to be seen. He’s averaging 17:16 of ice time with Anaheim, including 2:21 with the man advantage, and might not get that kind of role with a contender, which might hinder his fantasy value.

Another trade candidate with Anaheim is Jakob Silfverberg. The 33-year-old forward has struggled this campaign with just five goals and 13 points in 49 outings, but he’s shown some life recently, supplying three goals and five points over his last four appearances. It helps that he’s averaged 15:07 in that span, compared to 12:14 on the season.

Arizona Coyotes – MON @ PHI, WED VS MIN, FRI VS CAR, SUN @ COL

The Coyotes have a busy week ahead of them. It will start with a trip to Philadelphia on Monday, followed by a home stretch versus the Wild on Wednesday and Hurricanes on Friday. Finally, the Coyotes will head to Colorado to play the Avalanche on Sunday.

Although Arizona doesn’t have a back-to-back set next week, the busy schedule might still lead to Karel Vejmelka getting some work. He had a strong relief appearance Thursday, stopping the 28 Golden Knights shots he faced after Connor Ingram surrendered three goals on just six shots midway through the first frame. That strong performance is the exception, though. Vejmelka still has a 6-11-2 record, 3.33 GAA and .900 save percentage in 18 appearances in 2023-24. Ingram has been the better option with a 17-12-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .914 save percentage in 33 outings, but he’s now allowed at least three goals in each of his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Vejmelka if he can take advantage of it.

Someone else with an opening is Jack McBain. He’s been all over the lineup this season, but recently the 24-year-old has featured on the top unit alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. McBain isn’t much of an offensive threat, scoring just six goals and 15 points through 34 games, so don’t get too excited, but it of course helps to be working alongside players of that caliber.

Especially with Clayton Keller being hot at the moment. He has eight goals and 15 points over his past 12 contests, bringing him up to 21 tallies and 46 points across 49 games.

Boston Bruins – TUE VS TBL, THU VS SEA, SAT VS LAK

The Bruins get to stay in Boston next week and will host the Lightning on Tuesday, the Kraken on Thursday and the Kings on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but Seattle isn’t in a playoff position and LA has been slumping for the better part of two months, so the potential is there for the Bruins to have a strong run.

Some teams lack any particular player who has stood out recently. That’s almost never the case for the Bruins. You can count on David Pastrnak to put on a show and, most recently, he’s provided three goals and eight points in four contests. He continues to be one of the league’s biggest stars with 33 goals and 75 points through 51 outings.

One player who isn’t as much of a sure thing is Pavel Zacha, but he’s been clicking lately, providing two goals and six points over his active four-game scoring streak. That brings him up to 12 goals and 33 points in 47 appearances this season.

Meanwhile, Brad Marchand has been quickly climbing up the goal-scoring list. He’s found the back of the net 12 times over his past 15 contests, giving him 25 markers and 51 points in 51 games. That puts him on pace to reach the 40-goal milestone for the first time, but his current hot streak has skewed those numbers and he’s a safer bet to finish with around 35 tallies.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE @ BUF, THU @ NJD, SAT @BOS, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

As noted above, LA has struggled lately, posting a 3-8-6 record over its past 17 outings. The Kings will attempt to rebound during a road trip that will take them to Buffalo on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. Certainly not the easiest of schedules, but LA is one of the few teams set to play in four contests, so it’s still worthy of mention.

Maybe the Kings will get some help from Brandt Clarke, who was summoned from AHL Ontario on Thursday. He’s been fantastic in the minors, recording eight goals, 33 points and 35 PIM in 32 contests and figures to be a big part of LA’s long-term plans. It’s not clear what role he’ll have next week, but with the way things have been going for the Kings, they could stand to mix things up, and giving Clarke some responsibility would be one way to do that.

Alex Turcotte was also recalled Thursday. He had a goal and an assist in two games with LA during his previous stint and has recorded 24 points (seven goals) across 30 AHL appearances, so the 22-year-old might be helpful too.

Given the busy schedule, Cam Talbot is expected to get at least one opportunity to rebound over the next week. He had a 14-8-3 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage in 25 appearances through Jan. 2, but since then he’s lost his last seven contests while posting an ugly 4.62 GAA and .865 save percentage. He hasn’t played since Jan. 26, though, so perhaps the 36-year-old goaltender has had sufficient time off to step back and reset.

At the same time, David Rittich has done well, posting a 5-1-3 record, 2.09 GAA and .925 save percentage in 11 outings this season, which is part of the reason why he’s been able to wrestle the starting gig from Talbot. Even if Talbot rebounds, there’s a chance Rittich will stay busy, perhaps in a 1A and 1B situation. Certainly, this is a goaltending duo worth monitoring.

Montreal Canadiens – TUE VS ANA, THU @ NYR, SAT VS WAS

The Canadiens will host the Ducks on Tuesday, visit the Rangers on Thursday and conclude the week with a home match versus the Capitals on Saturday. New York is a tough adversary, but Anaheim and Washington aren’t in playoff positions.

Montreal’s standout forward recently has been Nick Suzuki, who has provided three goals and eight points during his active five-game scoring streak. The 24-year-old was limited to three assists across eight appearances from Jan. 4-18, but he’s been far more hit than miss this campaign, totaling 15 goals and 45 points through 50 contests.

Sean Monahan was having a strong season with Montreal too, but he was dealt to Winnipeg. The silver lining is that opened the door for Brandon Gignac to make his Canadiens debut Tuesday against Washington. Gignac logged 14:54 of ice time, including 0:32 on the power play. He didn’t record a point in that game, but the 26-year-old has 14 goals, 42 points and 36 PIM in 43 outings with AHL Laval this season, so if he continues to serve in a middle-six capacity while seeing time on the Canadiens’ second power-play unit, then he should have some offensive production going forward. Keep in mind that Montreal might not be done trading veterans. At the least, Tanner Pearson is likely to be shopped, and if that happens, the door might be opened to Gignac also serving a bigger role with the man advantage.

It’s safe to say Juraj Slafkovsky won’t be moved, though. Although the 19-year-old hasn’t been a major part of the Canadiens this year, supplying nine goals and 22 points across 50 contests, he is a big part of their long-term plans. He’s also seen an uptick in production recently, collecting five goals and seven points over his last eight games, so perhaps we’re seeing the early stages of a strong second half.

New Jersey Devils – MON VS SEA, TUE @ NAS (BTB), THU VS LAK, SAT VS PHI

New Jersey is gearing up for an eventful week. It will start by hosting the Kraken on Monday, then the Devils will play in Nashville on Tuesday before returning home to face the Kings on Thursday. They’ll conclude the week with a game against the Flyers on Saturday. New Jersey is the home team for that contest, but rather than it being played at Prudential Center, it will be an outdoor event at MetLife Stadium (the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets).

Injuries have held Jack Hughes back in 2023-24, but he returned from an upper-body issue Thursday, logging 20:24 of ice time, including 3:19 with the man advantage. If he can stay healthy, then Hughes adding 35-40 points over the Devils’ final 33 games is a reasonable hope.

Erik Haula might see his role diminish somewhat now that Hughes is back. Haula logged 15:40 on Thursday compared to an average of 17:40 from Jan. 6-Feb. 6 while the Devils were without Hughes. Haula, who had three goals and seven points in 10 outings during that stretch, might see his production decline as a result. He has 11 goals and 25 points in 43 appearances overall.

One forward who is likely to get a lot of work regardless of Hughes’ status is Jesper Bratt. The 25-year-old winger has certainly earned that privilege. He registered three assists Thursday to extend his scoring streak to six contests (four goals, nine points). Bratt’s up to 20 markers and 55 points through 49 outings in 2023-24.

Ottawa Senators – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS ANA, SAT VS CHI

The Senators aren’t having a great campaign, but they’ll be playing against some of the other teams at the bottom of the pack next week. They’ll host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Ducks on Thursday before visiting the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Before that action starts, Anton Forsberg (groin) and Travis Hamonic (upper body) are set to return this Saturday versus Toronto. The Senators are expected to be without Jake Sanderson (lower body) against Toronto, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be available next week. If he can’t play, then Mathieu Joseph will likely find himself with a role on the power play again after averaging just 0:10 with the man advantage over Ottawa’s last seven contests. Joseph hasn’t recorded a power-play point this season, but he’s done well overall with eight goals and 23 points through 37 appearances, so this is a situation worth monitoring.

It will also be interesting to see if Forsberg’s return saps time away from starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The No. 1 goaltender has left plenty to be desired this season with a 12-16-2 record, 3.38 GAA and .889 save percentage in 33 outings. However, Korpisalo has stepped up lately, posting a 4-1-2 record, 2.19 GAA and .912 save percentage across his past seven appearances. If he keeps that up, he should be able to hold Forsberg at bay, but if Korpisalo reverts back to his previous struggles, then Forsberg might play on a semi-regular basis down the stretch.

The Senators don’t have any blazing hot forward at the moment, but Shane Pinto has done well since returning from his 41-game suspension for sports wagering activities. He has two goals and four points in six contests and should continue to serve in a middle-six capacity as well as the first power-play unit going forward.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS STL, THU VS PHI, SAT VS ANA

The Maple Leafs will spend next week at home, hosting the Blues on Tuesday, the Flyers on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday. That’s not the weakest of schedules, but it’s not a particularly difficult one either. St. Louis and Philadelphia are both in the middle to upper-middle of the pack while Anaheim ranks near the bottom.

Joseph Woll (ankle) still isn’t close to returning, so Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are still the team’s goaltending duo. Jones hasn’t started since Jan. 20, but Samsonov has surrendered seven goals on 60 shots (.883 save percentage) over his past two contests, so Jones might get another shot next week. Both of those goaltenders have had great stretches, but also some incredibly rough patches, so they’re risks going forward.

One player who hasn’t dealt with such a roller coaster of a campaign is Auston Matthews. The 26-year-old has eight goals and 13 points in eight contests, but what’s remarkable is he’s not especially hot, that’s practically just the norm for him. Through 48 games, he’s supplied 41 tallies and 61 points and is likely to continue to find the back of the net at a reliable pace as long as he stays healthy. His continued health is critical to the team. While it’s true that Toronto has other superstars, he’s personally scored a staggering 24.3 percent of the team’s entire goals.

In terms of the supporting cast, Toronto doesn’t have anyone doing particularly well at present. The only players to accumulate at least three points over the Leafs’ last five contests are the Big Four (Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander) and their top defenseman, Morgan Rielly. Matthew Knies is getting a turn on the Matthews’ line, though, so perhaps that will help the 21-year-old forward.

NHL: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 22nd to 28th) – Oilers dominating – Teams and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 17:48:45 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) after scoring a goal during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on January 21, 2023 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton is playing some of its best hockey since the start of the Connor McDavid era, which is quite the turnaround from its 2-9-1 start to the campaign. After earning a 4-2 victory over Seattle on Thursday, the Oilers have now won 12 straight, bringing their record up to 25-15-1.

Let’s start with the winning streak itself. Already the longest in Edmonton’s history, it’s also in an eight-way tie for 12th on the all-time list. Two more victories would put the Oilers in a three-way tie for fifth place while the record stands at 17, which was set by Pittsburgh from March 9-April 10, 1993.

But it’s more than just the fact that Edmonton’s winning, it’s how the Oilers are doing so. Edmonton eked out one-goal wins on the road against Chicago, Detroit and Montreal from Jan. 9-13, and then the Oilers overcame 2-0 deficits to beat Toronto and Seattle in their last two contests. While you can argue the games being close or necessitating a comeback is a sign of weakness, it also shows resilience. Especially this deep into the streak, it demonstrates that Edmonton hasn’t become complacent. Perhaps it comes from hard lessons learned during the shaky start to the campaign, perhaps it’s thanks to the teachings of new head coach Kris Knoblauch, who has now started his NHL career with a 22-6-0 record, but whatever the cause, it’s something Edmonton will aim to hold onto during the second half of the campaign and into the playoffs -- a postseason run that seemed unlikely to happen back in early November.

The run also speaks to how much the team has grown beyond being just about McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. They’ve done their part to be sure -- McDavid has 59 points in 39 contests while Draisaitl has 50 in 41 -- but for the first time since 2015-16, someone other than McDavid or Draisaitl might win the team’s goal-scoring race. Zach Hyman currently has a comfortable lead on both of them with 27 tallies (along with 17 assists) in 40 contests. Edmonton also has four players past the 40-point mark while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on the cusp of making it five with 11 goals and 39 points in 41 outings. Contrast that with even just two years ago (2021-22) when McDavid and Draisaitl finished with 123 and 110 points, respectively, but no other player had more than 54.

On top of that, Edmonton has been one of the best defensive teams dating back to Nov. 11, allowing just 2.45 goals per game.

Of course, this discussion would have been very different two and a half months ago, and it might change again in April. For now, at least, the Oilers have manufactured optimism where there was little before, and doing so has been a true team effort.

Arizona Coyotes – MON VS PIT, WED @ FLA, THU @ TBL (BTB), SAT @ CAR

The Coyotes will start the week at home against Pittsburgh before beginning a three-game road trip that will take them to Florida on Wednesday, Tampa Bay on Thursday and Carolina on Saturday. Of all the teams highlighted this week, Arizona arguably has one of the toughest batches of opponents, but the busy schedule still makes the Coyotes worthy of note.

Nick Schmaltz (undisclosed) might miss time next week after getting hurt Tuesday. If he does, then Dylan Guenther might get plenty of work. The 20-year-old logged a season-high 18:06 of ice time Thursday, including 2:39 with the man advantage. Guenther has two goals and three points in six contests in 2023-24, but he has plenty of offensive upside, which he’s showcased in the AHL this season, contributing 10 goals and 28 points in 29 outings with Tucson.

Schmaltz’s absence would also put more pressure on Clayton Keller, but he seems up to the task. Keller has 17 goals and 39 points in 43 appearances in 2023-24 and has been especially good lately, providing four goals and eight points over his past six contests.

In net, it will be interesting to see how Karel Vejmelka does this week. Vejmelka started the campaign splitting the goaltending duties fairly evenly with Connor Ingram. However, Ingram has taken a bigger share of the duties as the season’s progressed, and that process has been accelerated by Vejmelka’s recent struggles -- he's recorded a 4.88 GAA and an .852 save percentage over his past four contests. With a back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday, Vejmelka should get at least one start, but if he continues to flounder like he has, then Ingram might cement his hold on the top job.

Boston Bruins – MON VS WPG, WED VS CAR, THU @ OTT (BTB), SAT @ PHI

Boston is set to host the Jets on Monday and the Hurricanes on Wednesday. After that stretch, they’ll have games in Ottawa on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday. Three of those four contests are against playoff contenders, but the Senators are in the Eastern Conference basement, so that’s an extremely favorable matchup.

The Bruins have gotten Linus Ullmark back from a lower-body injury, so he should resume splitting the netminding duties with Jeremy Swayman. It would not be surprising to see each goaltender take two of the starts this week.

Brandon Carlo (upper body) is also getting close to returning. With two goals and 10 points in 39 contests this season, he’s not a great fantasy option, but he does have some utility in certain formats thanks to his plus-15 rating, 22 PIM, 51 hits and 71 blocks. Carlo’s anticipated return might also push Mason Lohrei or Parker Wotherspoon out of the lineup.

When it comes to hot players, David Pastrnak has been playing out of his mind, providing nine goals and 19 points over his past 11 contests. Keep an eye on who is playing with him because that does change. Presently, Charlie Coyle is centering his line, which led to him collecting a pair of assists on Pastrnak goals Thursday. Coyle is up to 15 markers and 34 points in 44 appearances this year, including five goals and 13 points over his past 12 outings.

Calgary Flames – TUE VS STL, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS CHI

The Flames have just three games ahead of them, but all three games are at home against teams unlikely to make the payoffs. They’ll get the toughest matchup out of the way first when they host the Blues on Tuesday. Afterward, Calgary will face the lowly Blue Jackets on Thursday and Blackhawks on Saturday.

The big X-Factor is whether Jacob Markstrom (lower body) will be healthy for that stretch after missing his second straight contest on Thursday. If he can’t, then Dan Vladar is worthy of a pickup, provided he’s available. Sure, Vladar has had a rough campaign with a 3.35 GAA and an .885 save percentage in 15 contests, but none of the Flames’ upcoming opponents are particularly good offensively, and Chicago in particular ranks 31st with just 2.18 goals per game, so this might be a good stretch for Vladar.

Up front, Blake Coleman is continuing to excel with five goals and eight points over his last five contests, elevating him to 20 tallies and 38 points in 45 appearances this season. Just two of his points have come on the power play, but that’s largely because he’s averaged just 0:47 with the man advantage. However, his sustained success has helped him secure a regular role on the second power-play unit, so we might see him be a bit more productive on special teams in the second half.

Yegor Sharangovich is also on a crazy run with seven goals over his past five games. Through 45 contests this year, he has 19 goals and 32 points. His hot streak has likely ensured that he’ll finish the campaign with a new personal best in goals (presently his career high is 24 from 2021-22), but it should be cautioned that he’s a somewhat streaky goal scorer and this hot run might be followed by a prolonged slump.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ EDM, THU @ CGY, SAT @ VAN, SUN @ SEA

Columbus’ upcoming schedule is far from ideal, but at least it’s eventful with four games on the docket next week. The Blue Jackets will play in Edmonton on Tuesday, Calgary on Thursday, Vancouver on Saturday and Seattle on Sunday.

The big news regarding the Blue Jackets revolves around goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who requested a trade. He hasn’t exactly excelled this campaign with a 3.22 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 24 contests, which is a problem given his $5.4 million cap hit through 2026-27. At a surface glance, that might shy off some teams, but an argument can be made that Merzlikins has been better than his numbers suggest.

Columbus ranks 31st with 3.51 xGA/60, which suggests the team in front of him has been terrible defensively. If you look at Merzlikins specifically, he has 0.9 Goals Saved Above Expected, so by that metric, he’s been modestly above average. A trade to a better defensive team -- aka nearly any other squad -- would bolster Merzlikins’ numbers, so there’s an argument to be made that this would be a good time to consider getting him cheap. Keep in mind, though, that it’s a risky strategy because a trade isn’t guaranteed.

Adam Boqvist might also be a buy-low candidate. Injuries have limited him to seven assists in 17 contests this season, but he’s healthy now and has registered four assists over his past four appearances.

You could also consider taking a chance on Dmitri Voronkov next week. The 23-year-old rookie scored twice against Vancouver on Monday, bringing him up to nine goals and 22 points in 38 outings. Although his playing time has been somewhat limited in 2023-24 (an average of 13:18), he has been getting regular minutes on the Blue Jackets’ top power-play unit lately.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS CHI, SAT VS NSH

As noted above, with a 4-2 victory over Seattle on Thursday, Edmonton extended its winning streak to 12 games. The Oilers still need to face Calgary on Saturday, so the streak might not be active by the start of next week, but regardless they’re red hot and have three extremely winnable matchups coming up. The Oilers will host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Predators on Saturday. Of those three teams, Nashville is the only one with playoff hopes.

Stuart Skinner improved to 20-9-1 with a 2.59 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 31 outings this season. His GAA and save percentage have been heavily skewed downwards due to his first eight games in which he posted a 3.87 GAA and an .854 save percentage. More recently, he’s held the competition to two or fewer goals in each of his last eight starts, making him one of the hottest goaltenders in the league.

Of course, he’s no longer available in most fantasy leagues. One player who might be available, though, is Warren Foegele. The 27-year-old forward has been inconsistent this season, but he’s been alright overall with nine goals and 23 points in 41 contests. More importantly, Foegele is currently playing alongside Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane and should be in line for a strong week so long as he maintains that spot.

Florida Panthers – MON @ NSH, WED VS ARI, FRI @ PIT, SAT @ NYI (BTB)

The Panthers will begin the week in Nashville for a contest Monday before returning home to play against the Coyotes on Wednesday. Florida will play on the road against the Penguins and Islanders on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Those adversaries are middling squads in the conversation for the playoffs but are not presently viewed as serious Cup contenders.

Florida was also highlighted last week, and I noted at the time how Sam Reinhart’s sky-high shooting percentage might not be as huge of a red flag as it initially seems due to his tendency to be economical about when he fires the puck. Reinhart’s shooting percentage has since climbed higher from 27.5 to 27.7 and his goal-scoring streak stands at eight straight.

With 33 tallies in 44 games, Reinhart is now on pace to surpass the 60-goal milestone, and while I don’t expect him to do that, 50 doesn’t seem like a stretch at this point.

Meanwhile, Matthew Tkachuk is also having a great time, collecting seven goals and 20 points over his past 12 outings. That gives him 12 goals and 42 points in 44 contests despite a stretch from Nov. 16-Dec. 14 in which he had just two goals and three points through 14 contests. That slump aside, Tkachuk has been a very consistent scoring threat over the last few years, so I don’t expect him to have another cold spell at that level this season.

You might want to keep goaltender Anthony Stolarz in the back of your mind. He’s been a solid backup this campaign with a 6-3-2 record, 2.22 GAA and .913 save percentage in 12 appearances in 2023-24 and will likely start in one half of Florida’s back-to-back set against Pittsburgh and the Islanders.

Los Angeles Kings – MON VS SJS, WED VS BUF, FRI @ COL, SUN @ STL

The Kings will host the Sharks on Monday and the Sabres on Wednesday before their road games against Colorado on Friday and St. Louis on Sunday. The Avalanche are a top-tier team, but the Sharks sit in the NHL’s basement while the remaining two squads aren’t in playoff positions.

LA might still have a difficult time, though, after dropping 10 of their last 11 games. The Kings could really use more out of Pierre-Luc Dubois in particular. He has nine goals and 19 points in 42 contests after scoring 27 goals and 63 points in 73 outings with the Jets in 2022-23. That’s certainly not what the Kings had in mind when they traded for him over the summer.

It’s a situation that might not improve, though. Dubois averaged 18:27 of ice time with Winnipeg last season, but that’s dropped to 15:52 with the Kings. The problem is that the competition up the middle is fierce between him, Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar, which has led to Dubois serving in a third-line capacity. On top of that, Dubois is presently on the second power-play unit and has just two points with the man advantage after finishing 2022-23 with 23. Unless something changes, Dubois’ second half could very well be about as unproductive as the first.

Quinton Byfield has a better shot at improving his fortunes. He has just four goals and nine points over his past 19 contests, which stands in contrast to his eight goals and 21 points across his first 23 games of the campaign. It’s not unusual for young forwards to be particularly streaky, though, and the 21-year-old is still a member of the top line and first power-play unit, so it should just be a matter of time before he starts heating up again.

Cam Talbot should bounce back too. Although he has a solid 14-11-5 record, 2.43 GAA and .915 save percentage in 30 appearances, the 36-year-old goaltender has hit a rough patch in which he’s surrendered at least three goals in each of his last five outings. The Sharks rank at the bottom of the league offensively, though (1.98 goals per game), so that might be an opportunity for him to snap out of that cold spell.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ NJD, TUE @ NYI (BTB), FRI @ NYR, SAT @ DET (BTB)

Vegas will be on the road all next week with games against the Devils on Monday, the Islanders on Tuesday, the Rangers on Friday and the Red Wings on Saturday. Injuries have significantly hampered the Devils, so this isn’t quite as tough a stretch as it would have been earlier in the season.

Speaking of injuries, Vegas is likely to get Adin Hill back at some point next week. He hasn’t played since Dec. 17 but was fantastic before getting hurt, posting a 10-2-2 record, 1.93 GAA and .933 save percentage in 15 appearances this season. Once he returns, Logan Thompson will go from starting in the vast majority of games to around 40-50 percent of Vegas’ contests, so his fantasy value will naturally take a bit of a hit.

However, Vegas is going to continue to lean heavily on Chandler Stephenson for at least a little while longer. Jack Eichel (knee) is set to miss four-to-six weeks while William Karlsson (lower body) isn’t expected to return before the All-Star break. Once they’re all healthy, Stephenson might slide down to the third line, but for now, he’s the team’s headline center.

Nicolas Roy is also seeing increased responsibilities because of the injuries. Although he averaged 14:44 of ice time over his first 29 contests this season, Roy has logged over 16 minutes in each of his last four games. The 26-year-old is starting to take advantage of the opportunity, registering three assists over his past two appearances.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies getting a long look at camp – Vasilevskiy goaltending shuffle? – Laine switching positions plus much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 17:19:27 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - SEPTEMBER 25: Philadelphia Flyers Forward Tyson Foerster (71) skates with the puck during a preseason game between the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils on September 25, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.(Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Tyson Foerster, Matt Coronato, Matthew Poitras, and Zach Benson are among the rookies getting a long look at training camps. The Lightning are trying to survive Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury, Patrik Laine’s shifting positions, and more.

#1 Drafted 23^rd by the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 Draft, Tyson Foerster has been steadily progressing and he tallied 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 66 AHL games last season and added seven points (3 G, 4 A) in eight NHL games. The 21-year-old is getting a real chance to make the team this year. His most common linemate in the preseason has been Joel Farabee, followed by Morgan Frost and Sean Couturier. That might indicate that Foerster is not only going to make the Flyers, but he could get a look in a scoring role, which might give him the opportunity to be fantasy relevant.

#2 The past couple of seasons have been the most productive of Evan Rodrigues’ career and it looks like he will have a chance to continue producing with his move to Florida, where he is getting a chance to skate alongside Aleksander Barkov, both at even strength and on Florida’s top power play unit. Rodrigues has scored 35 goals and 82 points in 151 games over the past two seasons, playing for Colorado and Pittsburgh. Rodrigues has been a top shot generator, averaging 9.67 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, which ranks 33^rd. He also has a shooting percentage in those two seasons of 8.2%, so he is just waiting for a bust-out season with improved percentages.

#3 There are few goaltenders in the league as indispensable as Tampa Bay Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has handled a heavy workload throughout his career, allowing the Lightning to invest little in their backup goaltender. However, now that Vasilevskiy is going to miss at least a couple of months to start the season due to a back injury and that leaves the Lightning with Jonas Johansson, Hugo Alnefelt, and Matt Tomkins between the pipes. Johansson has been a quality AHL goaltender – he had a .920 save percentage in 26 AHL games last season – but he has a .887 save percentage in 35 career NHL games, which hardly screams ready to handle a starter’s role for a couple of months. Alnefelt is a 22-year-old who had a .904 save percentage in 33 AHL games last season. Tomkins is a 29-year-old who had a .909 save percentage in 65 games in the Swedish Hockey League over the past two years. On top of all of that, the Lightning have precious little cap space, especially until they get Vasilevskiy on LTIR.

#4 Tampa Bay is not the only team with goaltending concerns. It’s just that the Lightning have the biggest concern. However, for teams that might need goaltending, there are enough teams with quality number three goaltenders that the waiver wire or trades could be a path to stabilizing the situation between the pipes. Buffalo’s Eric Comrie, Calgary’s Daniel Vladar, Detroit’s Alex Lyon, Florida’s Anthony Stolarz, Los Angeles’ David Rittich, Toronto’s Martin Jones, and Seattle’s Chris Driedger or Joey Daccord are among the goaltenders with NHL experience that could be available as the season approaches.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks lost veteran left winger Alex Killorn for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and his absence likely helps someone like Frank Vatrano, who is going to have a better shot at playing in the Ducks’ top six and skating on the wing with someone like Mason McTavish at centre is a good opportunity. Vatrano has some deep league fantasy appeal as a two-time 20-goal scorer who ranks 30^th in shots per 60 minutes over the past two seasons.

#6 An interesting development with the Blue Jackets is that they have shifted Patrik Laine to centre, between Johnny Gaudreau and Kirill Marchenko. While Laine’s skill set does not scream elite centre, if he can handle the role, he has the size to be a monstrous presence in the middle and with a playmaker like Gaudreau on the wing, Laine will still be able to fulfill his typical role as finisher. Laine has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four preseason contests. This development could be most interesting for Marchenko, who is getting a chance to skate with Columbus’ most dangerous offensive players, and it probably knocks down the value of Boone Jenner, who would potentially lose that spot on the top line.

#7 Some other players producing in the preseason, with a focus on players that might be exceeding expectations: Calgary rookie Matt Coronato has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in five games, Columbus’ Emil Bemstrom has six points (3 G, 3 A) in four games, Florida’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson has five assists in two games, Detroit’s J.T. Compher has five points (1 G, 4 A) in three games, and St. Louis’ Jakub Vrana has five points (3 G, 2 A) in four games. Small samples, obviously, but take the preseason production as an encouraging sign.

#8 A couple more rookies that are producing in the preseason and might just be forcing their way into NHL jobs: Bruins C Matthew Poitras, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five games and could at least get a trial as Boston’s No. 2 centre as the Bruins try to fill the gaping holes left by the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Buffalo’s Zach Benson, the 13^th pick in the 2023 Draft, has been getting quality looks in Sabres camp, playing on the top line with first unit power play time, and has five points (3 G, 2 A) in five preseason contests.

#9 When the New York Islanders acquired Pierre Engvall from the Toronto Maple Leafs at last season’s trade deadline, he was given a bigger role, playing an extra couple of minutes per game with the Islanders, and he contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 18 games. It looks like Engvall could have a chance to stick in the Isles’ top six, as he is skating with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri on the second line. Engvall has a career high of 35 points coming into the season and it looks like he will have a real shot to play a bigger role with the Islanders.

#10 Looking back at the past three seasons, the points per 60 minutes leaders tend to be expected names – Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk – but there are always some surprises that deserve more notice. Carter Verhaeghe ranks 12^th among skaters that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes, with 2.62 points/60. Nikolaj Ehlers is 19^th at 2.57 points/60, Jakub Vrana is 21^st at 2.56 points/60, Michael Bunting 26^th at 2.49 points/60, and Andre Burakovsky 34^th with 2.43 points/60. That’s the second note in favour of Vrana.

#11 Turning the focus to goals per 60 minutes, the leaders are mostly as expected: Auston Matthews, Jakub Vrana, David Pastrnak, Max Pacioretty, Filip Forsberg, Jared McCann, Daniel Sprong, Carter Verhaeghe, Roope Hintz, and Cole Caufield, all coming in ahead of 11^th-ranked Alex Ovechkin. There are some players who have missed significant time in the past three seasons, including Vrana, Pacioretty, Forsberg, Sprong, and Caufield, but that is a third positive reference for Vrana.

#12 Andrew Mangiapane is not only getting a look with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm on Calgary’s top line, but he is getting first unit power play time, too. Mangiapane went from a career-high 35 goals in 2021-2022 to 17 goals last season with his shooting percentage crashing from 18.9% to 9.3%, so he is a prime candidate to rebound and especially if he is going to get a shot with top offensive performers.

#13 When winger Sammy Blais returned to St. Louis at the trade deadline last season, he was given a new opportunity. He saw his ice time jump nearly five minutes per game, from 9:38 with the Rangers to 14:36 with the Blues, and Blais contributed 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 31 games. He scored on 23.1% of his shots and that is not sustainable, but that increased role and productivity put Blais on the radar for fantasy managers because he also had 119 hits in 31 games. He is an injury risk as last season’s 71 games was the first time that he had played more than 40 games in an NHL season, but if opportunity knocks in St. Louis this year, Blais is going to be in position to chip in and offer fantasy appeal, at least in deep or banger leagues.

#14 An efficient depth player for much of his career, Ryan Donato is the latest to get a look on Chicago’s top line, skating alongside Taylor Hall and Connor Bedard. In the past two seasons, Donato has scored 29 goals at even strength, the same number as Pierre-Luc Dubois, and more than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evgeni Malkin, among others. With 1.08 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in the past two seasons, Donato ranks 46^th among skaters to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes. He may not last alongside Bedard and Hall but might be worth a late-round flier in a deep league just in case he sticks there and continues to score, only with more ice time, in Chicago.

#15 The second pick in the 2020 Draft, Quinton Byfield has been making slow progress, but has loads of potential and has an opportunity to break through as he skates on the Kings’ top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Byfield had 22 points in 53 games last season, managing just three goals, but he did have some flashes. He had nine points (1 G, 8 A) during a 10-game stretch in the second half of the season and contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) in six playoff games against Edmonton. It would help if he could increase his shot rate, but it is also too soon to be giving up on a 21-year-old who is 6-foot-5 and can skate like Byfield, so this could be a pivotal season for his development.

#16 Sticking with the 2020 Draft, top pick Alexis Lafreniere has not fulfilled his potential yet, either and it leads to complicated discussions. In three NHL seasons, Lafreniere has produced 44 even strength goals, which ranks 81^st in the league. It’s the same number as Anze Kopitar and one more than Mika Zibanejad, which would seem like pretty good company, but Lafreniere has a total of six power play points in 216 games and that leaves him with uninspiring point totals. With a new coach, Peter Laviolette, behind the bench for the Blueshirts, it looks like Lafreniere should have a chance to play in the top six, but it also looks like he is not getting power play time, and that is going to put a limit on his fantasy appeal.

#17 Nashville’s top power play unit is interesting. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi are obvious veteran anchors for the unit, but Tommy Novak and Luke Evangelista are getting regular spots and then there is a spot for either Ryan O’Reilly or Cody Glass. If the Predators are trying to rebuild on the fly, giving young players like Novak, Evangelista, and Glass a real chance in prominent roles is a way to find out if they are going to be able to remain competitive through the process. For fantasy managers, that does elevate the appeal of those less proven Preds.

#18 With Vasily Podkolzin getting cut and Ilya Mikheyev’s health in question in Vancouver, that makes it look like Nils Hoglander and Phil DiGiuseppe will have regular spots in the Canucks lineup. Hoglander does offer more upside, scoring 24 of his 26 career goals at even strength, but he managed just nine points (3 G, 6 A) in 25 games before getting demoted to the AHL last season. Hoglander had 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 56 games as a rookie in 2020-2021 but was going in the wrong direction, so this might be the opportunity he needs to get back on track.

#19 Looking back to the 2022-2023 season, there were a few players who really surged after the All-Star break. Many are the top players in the league, but some might come as a surprise. Arizona’s Clayton Keller, for example, ranked fourth with 45 points (19 G, 26 A) in 32 games following the break. Dallas defenceman Miro Heiskanen had 33 points (4 G, 29 A) in 31 games, Nashville’s Tommy Novak had 32 points (13 G, 19 A) in 32 games, Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt produced 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 33 games, and Washington’s Dylan Strome had 29 points (12 G, 17 A) in 29 games. He missed some time, but Columbus’ Patrik Laine had 21 points (8 G, 13 A) in 19 games to finish last season.

#20 Finally, with the season just around the corner, beware of the injury bug. Last week, I wrote about how John Klingberg was getting a chance on Toronto’s top power play unit, and he hasn’t played since, as he nurses an upper-body injury. Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston have both been out for the Dallas Stars and while they appear to be making progress, it seems possible that they might not be ready for opening night. Mattias Ekholm has been out of the Oilers lineup, leaving a gaping hole on the Edmonton blueline. Ottawa centre Josh Norris is working his way back from shoulder surgery, but with Shane Pinto still unsigned, that leaves the Sens suddenly thin down the middle, at least for the time being. Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel was not expected to be ready for the start of the season, following offseason ankle surgery, but has been practicing with the Penguins so he may be getting close. San Jose’s Logan Couture does not appear likely to be ready for the start of the season. That probably gives Mikael Granlund a bigger role for the Sharks. Neck spasms have been keeping Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers out of the lineup, a huge absence for Winnipeg, and Winnipeg is being careful so he may not be ready for the start of the season either.