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OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 26: Winnipeg Jets Goalie Connor Hellebuyck (37) looks to make a save during third period National Hockey League action between the Winnipeg Jets and Ottawa Senators on February 26, 2025, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Cole Perfetti and Mason Appleton each found the back of the net by 9:03 of the first period to give the Jets a 2-0 lead against the Senators on Wednesday. That’s all the offense Winnipeg ultimately required en route to a 4-1 victory. It was an efficient two points in the bank and wouldn’t stand out, except for the fact that it was Winnipeg’s 11th win in a row.

The Jets were already having a dominant season, but they’ve somehow found another gear. Even after seeing that winning streak end Thursday, Winnipeg has a superb 42-15-3 record. The only team that even comes close is Washington (38-13-8) in the Eastern Conference. In their own conference, Winnipeg has opened up an 11-point edge, giving them plenty of breathing room going down the stretch.

Winnipeg is averaging 3.53 goals per game, so it’s fair to say that the forwards have been doing their part, but the core ingredient of the Jets’ success has been Connor Hellebuyck. He’s the league leader in GAA (2.02) and save percentage (.926) among those who have appeared in at least 15 games, and no netminder comes even close to his 36 wins -- the next best is Andrei Vasilevskiy with 28. In fact, only five teams are above him in terms of wins, excluding Winnipeg (he’s earned 85.7 percent of the Jets’ victories), those are Washington, Dallas, Toronto and Florida.

Hellebuyck is the heavy favorite to repeat as the Vezina Trophy winner, and that’s putting it lightly. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where it’s fair to ask if he should be in the Hart Trophy conversation. Keep in mind, Hellebuyck is not merely the byproduct of a strong team. Those in front of him are certainly helping, especially where his record is concerned, but the 31-year-old also leads the league in Goals Saved Above Expected with 30.3, per Moneypuck, and he’s just one of three netminders above plus-20 in that category. That statistic suggests he’s a big factor in the Jets’ dominance, not just a benefactor of it.

Hellebuyck also has an outside chance of flirting with the all-time single season win record, which is currently shared by Martin Brodeur (2006-07) and Braden Holtby (2015-16) at 48. I don’t expect Hellebuyck to ultimately reach that level because the Jets, without much left to play for until the postseason, will probably start managing his workload down the stretch. Still, we’re talking about 12 more wins over the Jets’ final 23 games, so it’s at least within the realm of possibility.

When Brodeur set that record, he finished third in Hart Trophy voting and Holtby finished fourth that year -- both won the Vezina -- but Hellebuyck campaign might end up being arguably more impressive than either of them. Brodeur and Holtby didn’t lead the league in GAA or save percentage in their respective 48-win campaign, but there’s a good chance of Hellebuyck carrying both of those categories while simultaneously getting his win total well into the 40s.

Still, I think it would take a lack of impressive campaigns from forwards to convince the voters to select a goaltender, even one as dominant as Hellebuyck, as the top pick for the Hart. The last time a goaltender won the trophy was in 2014-15 (Carey Price) when no forward reached the 90-point mark. The time before that when Jose Theodore claimed the award in 2001-02, there was no player who hit 100 points. That won’t be the case this season. Nathan MacKinnion (23 goals, 90 points), Leon Draisaitl (44, 88) and Nikita Kucherov (27, 86) are all providing compelling cases for Hart consideration. If Hellebuyck stays strong down the stretch, then I believe he will be one of the finalists, but a forward is still more likely to ultimately win the award.

Anaheim Ducks

In all likelihood, this will be the seventh straight year without a playoff berth for Anaheim, but perhaps the Ducks can at least end the campaign on a positive note after going 8-2-1 dating back to Jan. 23. They’ll try to maintain that momentum next week, starting with a road game against Edmonton on Tuesday. The Ducks will then play in Vancouver on Wednesday before hosting the Blues and the Islanders on Friday and Sunday, respectfully.

Mason McTavish has been a major part of the Ducks’ recent string of success, supplying seven goals and 11 points over his past 11 outings. McTavish is up to 14 goals and 31 points in 52 appearances in 2024-25, giving the 22-year-old a chance to surpass his career high of 43 points. He has been somewhat inconsistent, so it wouldn’t be shocking if another cold stretch before the end of the campaign ruins that push, but this could very well just be the prelude to a breakout in 2025-26. Taken with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, McTavish could turn into a very valuable top six forward.

On the blue line, the Ducks also have been getting help from Jackson LaCombe, who scored a goal Thursday to extend his point streak to four games (one goal, four assists). The 24-year-old is now just one point shy of reaching 30 for the first time in his career. Although he’s gotten a healthy amount of power-play ice time (1:52 per game), LaCombe hasn’t quite clicked with the man advantage, providing just five points this season. The Ducks collectively have underwhelmed in that category with their 12.7 percent conversion rate, 31st in the league, but that’s a potential area of upside for both LaCombe and Anaheim, especially if you’re looking ahead to next season.

Leo Carlsson might be part of the solution on the power play once he’s had more time to develop. Taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, the 20-year-old hasn’t made a big impact this season with 11 goals and 23 points through 52 outings, but he’s giving us a taste of what he’s capable of, providing two goals and seven points in his past seven games.

Ultimately, it’s encouraging to see the Ducks’ younger players playing key roles recently. Anaheim has been rough for years now, but the youth movement might be on the cusp of moving the Ducks back into playoff contention -- likely not this year, but they’re a squad you shouldn’t sleep on for 2025-26.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have a commanding 37-19-2 record, but they’re also in the same division as Winnipeg, so they’re unlikely to do better than the second seed. Even there, Dallas needs to stay sharp to stay ahead of Minnesota (34-21-4) and Colorado (34-24-2). The Stars will attempt to cushion their hold on the second seed next week, starting with home games against New Jersey and Calgary on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Stars will then play in Edmonton on Saturday and Vancouver on Sunday.

With the Stars battling in such a tough division, they decided they couldn’t wait until the trade deadline to make some moves. To that end, the Stars acquired Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci from San Jose on Feb. 1. Given that about a month has past, it seems like a good opportunity to take stock of how that trade is working out for Dallas.

Granlund has primarily been playing on the Stars’ second line alongside Matt Duchene and Mason Marchment, though he’s also gotten looks on the first unit with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. In either scenario, Granlund has helped out, providing six assists (five primary assists) in seven appearances since the trade. He’s also seen action on the first power-play unit, but he hasn’t gotten any production with the man advantage yet.

Eventually he should have some power-play production and will largely continue to be effective offensively. He’s a nice boost on a team that already featured some pretty solid forward depth.

In the case of Ceci, he has two assists, nine blocks and 14 hits while averaging 20:46 of ice time in seven outings with Dallas. He’s never been much of an offensive threat, so even those two helpers should be regarded as merely a bonus, but the move from San Jose to Dallas hasn’t cost him his top four role, which means that he should continue to be a reliable source of blocks and hits.

Dallas is in a tough position cap wise, so that might be it for the Stars in terms of additions -- unless Miro Heiskanen (knee) or Tyler Seguin (hip) are done until the playoffs. Seguin has resumed skating while Heiskanen hasn’t, per Sean Shapiro of DLLS Sports. Stars GM Jim Nill describe their situation as fluid, which to me suggests that it’s not clear if they’ll be ready before the playoffs or not. Still, if Dallas ends up making a big splash before the deadline, then that probably implies that one or both of them will remain on LTIR until the playoffs.

When they do return, it’ll be interesting to see how the Stars adjust their lines. Tyler Seguin saw success early in the campaign alongside Duchene and Marchment, so maybe he’ll resume that role, leaving Granlund to primarily play with Robertson and Hintz. That would likely result in Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven seeing their playing time diminish. Whatever his role, don’t diminish Seguin when he returns. In part due to injuries, it’s been a while since he had a 60-plus point campaign, but he’s been effective while healthy, supplying 55 goals and 122 points in 163 outings across the past three years for an average of 61 points per 82 games.

In terms of a healthy Heiskanen, he might link up with Thomas Harley.  That might in turn lead to Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin competing for the sixth blueliner role. We might also see Lian Bichsel return to AHL Texas once Heiskanen is healthy. That’d give Dallas a top four of Harley, Esa Lindell, Ceci and Heiskanen going into the playoffs.

Los Angeles Kings

At 31-17-8, the Kings are a good bet to make the playoffs and could still win the Pacific Division with a strong finish. That pursuit of the 35-18-6 Golden Knights will likely be a key motivator for them going into next week. The Kings will play in Chicago on Monday before hosting the Blues twice on Wednesday and Saturday. They’ll then travel to Vegas to play against the division rival Sunday.

To the surprise of no one, Quinton Byfield wasn’t part of Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off. He’s simply not good enough -- yet. Taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, Byfield has plenty of upside, and the 22-year-old gave another taste of it Monday when he registered four assists to aid LA in its 5-2 victory over the Golden Knights. That’s the third time this campaign he’s provided at least three points in a game, but his offense hasn’t been consistent, which has limited him to 34 points (11 goals) in 56 appearances. At this rate, he’ll end up doing a little worse than his 55-point showing in 2023-24, which is disappointing, but not a disaster.

What would be a disaster for the Kings is another extended absence from Drew Doughty. While the Kings demonstrated during his 47-game absence to start the campaign that they can win without him, he certainly brings plenty to the table when healthy, supplying a goal, four points, 11 hits and 13 blocks while averaging 25:55 of ice time in his eight appearances with the Kings’ this campaign.

In that context, it was especially concerning when Doughty missed Wednesday’s clash against Vancouver due to a lower-body injury. He had missed the first half of the campaign with an ankle injury, so the location of his new problem was particularly concerning. Fortunately, it seems like the worst-case scenario isn’t likely. As Mayor’s Manor reported, Doughty is just dealing with soreness and swelling, which makes him day-to-day. Still, you have to wonder if maybe the Kings will manage his workload a little more or even consider making him a healthy scratch on occasion. LA still has four back-to-back sets remaining, so keep an eye on that situation.

Anze Kopitar is also worth monitoring. He had an excellent start to the campaign, providing 12 goals and 39 points in 36 outings, but Kopitar has just a goal and seven points across his last 20 games, including three points in his past 12 outings. At one time, he seemed like a lock to reach the 70-point mark for the third straight campaign, but that’s now in serious jeopardy for the 37-year-old.

Cold streaks aren’t new for Kopitar, but it is unusual for one to last this long, so it’s reached the point where his slump is cause for concern.

New York Islanders

The Islanders will spend next week primarily on the road with games against the Rangers on Monday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Ducks on Sunday. The lone exception is a home match against Winnipeg on Tuesday.

Signing Tony DeAngelo was a controversial decision given his history, but if there’s one positive to the game, it’s what he brings to the table offensively, and he’s largely delivered there, providing a goal and six points across 11 appearances since he made his Islanders debut Jan. 25. Interestingly, none of those points have come with the man advantage, which has traditionally been a key part of his production. If you want to take an optimistic look, that could mean that his scoring pace could be even better once he starts clicking on the power play.

It's also interesting that the return of Noah Dobson didn’t seem to meaningfully alter DeAngelo’s role. He was originally seen as a stopgap measure after Dobson suffered a lower-body injury, but DeAngelo still logged 21:20 of ice time, including 1:49 with the man advantage, in Dobson’s first game back Thursday. Granted, Dobson got just 18:54 himself, which suggests the Islanders were easing him back into the lineup a bit, but it still seems reasonable to believe DeAngelo will maintain his top four role going forward.

As for Dobson, he should see his playing time return to its average around 24 minutes within the next couple of games. He’ll also continue to feature on the power play, even with the presence of DeAngelo. Getting Dobson back will likely move Scott Perunovich back into a depth role, though. Perunovich had three assists while playing in nine straight games and saw some power-play time from Jan. 28-Feb. 25, but he was a healthy scratch Thursday and will likely spend additional time in the press box going forward.

New York Rangers

In contrast to the Islanders, the Rangers will spend most of next week at home. They’ll host the Islanders on Monday, the Capitals on Wednesday and the Blue Jackets on Sunday. The Rangers’ lone road game will be Wednesday in Washington.

New York has been all over the place this season. Despite a 12-4-1 start, the Rangers no longer occupy a playoff spot, though they have won five of their past seven games, bringing them up to 29-25-4 overall.

Igor Shesterkin has been part of the weirdness, posting a 20-20-2 record, 2.93 GAA and .906 save percentage. If the campaign ended after Thursday’s action, Shesterkin’s GAA and save percentage would both mark career worsts for him. He’s had some amazing starts, holding the competition to one or fewer goals in 10 outings, and he’s made at least 30 saves on 16 occasions. At the same time, there are nine instances of him surrendering at least five goals. To put that into context, from 2019-20 through 2022-23, he had eight total games in which he allowed five or more goals over a span of 158 regular-season appearances.

That inconsistency in net has been part of the problem for the Rangers, but New York has also seen its scoring tick down this campaign with 3.03 goals per game from 3.39 last year. The good news is that the Rangers offense has been clicking lately, averaging 3.50 goals since the start of February.

Acquiring J.T. Miller in a trade with Vancouver on Jan. 31 has helped with that. Miller has provided five goals and nine points in eight appearances since joining the Rangers, and he should average about a point per game throughout the remainder of the season.

We’ve also seen a resurgence of Mika Zibanejad. The 31-year-old had an uncharacteristically poor stretch from Dec. 14-Jan. 28 in which he had just three goals and eight points across 22 appearances. He’s put that behind him in February, though, scoring three goals and 11 points over an eight-game stretch. Zibanejad’s slump will keep him below his 2023-24 finish of 72 points (he has 40 points in 58 outings this year), but he is still capable of being a strong presence down the stretch.

Adam Fox was also looking good, going on a seven-game scoring streak (two goals, eight points) from Feb. 2-25, but unfortunately that was cut short by an upper-body injury. With a spot in the postseason not secure, this is a terrible time for the Rangers to lose a key defenseman, but it is an opportunity for Braden Schneider to play a bigger role, including the possibility of work with the man advantage.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers have four games on the docket next week, and they’re all at home. Philadelphia will host Calgary on Tuesday, Winnipeg on Thursday, Seattle on Saturday and New Jersey on Sunday.

The Flyers are 26-26-8 through Thursday’s action, putting them six points out of a wild-card spot, though Philadelphia has played one more game than the Red Wings and the Blue Jackets, which are currently tied at 66 and hold the first and second wild-card seeds, respectively. However, Philadelphia would need to leapfrog the Rangers, the Senators, the Bruins and the Canadiens in addition to surpassing one of Detroit or Columbus in order to make the playoffs, so the Flyers are facing long odds to say the least. Moneypuck puts Philadelphia’s playoff chances at just 2.2 percent and gives them better odds of securing the first overall pick, 5.9 percent.

The Flyers are seller at this point, though it might be that their trade sending Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee to the Flames on Jan. 31 will go down as the only noteworthy move they make before the deadline. Andrei Kuzmenko and Erik Johnson are their only players of note who are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer. Kuzmenko might have value to a contender as a depth scorer, but his $5.5 million cap hit hurts his value, even if Philadelphia were willing to retain part of it.

Meanwhile, Johnson doesn’t seem to have much left at the age of 36. He’s appeared in just 22 games with Philadelphia this season, and a contender would presumably be looking at him as a seventh defenseman at best. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got picked up by someone, but probably just for a sixth or seventh-round pick.

They might trade someone with term, though. Rasmus Ristolainen has come up in the rumor mill. He’s a huge, physical right-hand defenseman, so it’s easy to imagine teams gunning for him, but because he’s signed through 2026-27, the Flyers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to negotiations. If they don’t get an offer they love, then they can just hold onto him for next season. With that in mind, it seems Philadelphia wants a first rounder plus an asset for him, and no team has come close to that yet, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. So don’t be surprised if he stays with the Flyers.

With the deadline looming, it can be easy to miss the fact that Matvei Michkov is having one of the best stretches of his rookie campaign. He has an incredible five goals and 10 points across his past five appearances, bringing him up to 19 goals and 44 points through 58 outings overall. The 20-year-old has been all over the place this year, even spending some time as a healthy scratch, but his offensive potential is without question. If he can find some degree of consistency, then 80-plus point campaigns might be in his future.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay will open next week with a road match against the Panthers on Monday, but they’ll spend the rest of the week at home. The Lightning will host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Sabres on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday.

Tampa Bay is third in the Atlantic Division, but after winning its past seven games, the Lightning have a 34-20-4 record and sit just three points behind the division-leading Panthers, which will make that Monday contest all the more important.

Look for Andrei Vasilevskiy to get the nod in that game. He’s played a vital role in the Lightning’s winning streak, being in net for all seven of those contests while posting a 1.72 GAA and a .944 save percentage. That gives him a 28-15-3 record, 2.21 GAA and .922 save percentage through 46 appearances in 2024-25, which is a nice return to form after a rough 2023-24 in which he had a 30-20-2 record, 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 52 outings. If not for Connor Hellebuyck’s dazzling play, Vasilevskiy might have been in the conversation to win the Vezina for the first time since 2018-19.

Brandon Hagel has also been a major driver of Tampa Bay’s recent success. He has nine goals and 16 points across his past nine outings, giving him 29 goals and 67 points in 58 games this campaign. It’s not unusual for goals to come in bunches -- Hagel has a similar stretch of success from Oct. 15-24 in which he collected six goals and nine points in six outings -- so enjoy this while it lasts, but don’t be shocked if he then has another stretch similar to Jan. 14-28 (aka, no goals and three assists over eight games).

Nick Paul is a somewhat similar story. He found the back of the net for four straight games from Feb. 8-25 (keep in mind, the 4 Nations Face-Off break was in the middle of that), but he also has stretches of no production -- he had a six-game point drought from Jan. 25-Feb. 6. He averages out to be a decent secondary scorer (18 goals and 32 points in 52 outings this season), but not someone you can rely on regularly.

Nikita Kucherov tends to be a more consistent offensive force. Excluding games missed, he hasn’t been held off the scoresheet for more than back-to-back contests this season. That’s led to him supplying 27 goals and 86 points in 55 appearances, including four goals and 13 points across his last nine outings -- technically a nine-game scoring streak, but it’s not an official one because he didn’t play Feb. 9 due to an upper-body injury.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals will start the week by hosting the Senators on Monday before travelling to New York to face the Rangers on Wednesday. Washington will then play home games against the Red Wings on Friday and the Kraken on Sunday.

All eyes will remain on Alex Ovechkin as he continues his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky. Ovechkin is 11 goals away from tying the record after finding the back of the net against Calgary on Tuesday. That gives him eight markers and 13 points across his past nine games, and 30 goals in 2024-25 despite being limited to 43 contests due to injury.

Speaking of, when Ovechkin suffered a fibula fracture back in November, it seemed like he would have to wait until at least the 2025-26 campaign to break the record, but with 23 games remaining on Washington’s schedule, it’s certainly possible for him to surpass the record before the playoffs. He’d have to stay hot, but with the way he’s played this year, it’s doable.

Dylan Strome has enjoyed sharing the ice with Ovechkin. While he’s not completely dependent on the Russian superstar, Ovechkin has appeared on the scoresheet for 32 of Strome’s 59 points. The 27-year-old Strome has six goals and 13 points across his past 10 appearances as he looks to reach the 70-point milestone for the first time in his career.

The only real blemish on Washington recently has been Logan Thompson. He’s still having a great campaign overall with a 25-3-5 record, 2.28 GAA and .919 save percentage in 33 appearances, but he has allowed at least three goals in each of his past five starts. Perhaps Thompson would benefit from a bit more rest down the stretch. After all, he’s never played in more then 50 regular-season plus playoff games in a single campaign, and the Capitals are hoping to lean on him heavily come the postseason.

Charlie Lindgren is 13-10-3 with a 2.70 GAA and an .896 save percentage in 27 outings, and he’s struggled recently too, allowing 15 goals on 99 shots (.848 save percentage) across his past four starts, so he’s not an ideal alternative. However, Washington is in a commanding position thanks to its 38-13-8 record, so the Capitals can afford to regularly rest Thompson down the stretch, even if it ends up costing them some wins. Keep that in mind when evaluating Lindgren and Thompson’s value for the remainder of 2024-25.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Canucks send Miller to Rangers, Sharks ship Granlund to Dallas, Sanderson, Perfetti, Byfield, Knies, and Wright are among the young players gaining appeal and much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-canucks-send-miller-rangers-sharks-ship-granlund-dallas-sanderson-perfetti-byfield-knies-wright-young-players-gaining-appeal-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-canucks-send-miller-rangers-sharks-ship-granlund-dallas-sanderson-perfetti-byfield-knies-wright-young-players-gaining-appeal-more/#respond Sat, 08 Feb 2025 18:51:21 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=191858 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Canucks send Miller to Rangers, Sharks ship Granlund to Dallas, Sanderson, Perfetti, Byfield, Knies, and Wright are among the young players gaining appeal and much more!

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NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 07: New York Rangers left wing J.T. Miller (8) in action during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on February 7, 2025 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Canucks send J.T. Miller to the Rangers, the Sharks ship Mikael Granlund to Dallas, Jake Sanderson, Cole Perfetti, Quinton Byfield, Matthew Knies, and Shane Wright are among the young players gaining appeal and much more!

#1 Ending a saga that had been going on in Vancouver all season, the Canucks finally traded J.T. Miller to the New York Rangers. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Miller has scored 323 points (112 G, 211 A) in 285 games, which ranks 13th in the NHL. He also has 692 hits in that time, so Miller offers a lot for fantasy managers. He can be a handful and eventually wore out his welcome in Vancouver, but he makes the Rangers better immediately.

#2 One of the players reaping the rewards from Miller’s arrival in New York is Mika Zibanejad, who has been enduring a difficult season, but has shifted to right wing on a line with Miller and Artemi Panarin. Zibanejad suddenly has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past three games, after managing just two points (1 G, 1 A) in his previous eight games.

#3 Going to Vancouver in the Miller deal, centre Filip Chytil should get a better opportunity with the Canucks. He was stuck behind Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck down the middle of the ice for the Rangers. Chytil had 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 41 games for the Rangers, but has two points (1 G, 1 A) in three games with the Canucks, averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game with his new team. Chytil is centering Drew O’Connor, who was recently acquired from Pittsburgh, and Brock Boeser on the Canucks’ second line as well as getting first-unit power play time, so he is getting a chance to be a more significant contributor than he was in New York.

#4 In another deal, the San Jose Sharks dealt forward Mikael Granlund and defenceman Cody Ceci to Dallas. Ceci is a veteran stay-at-home defenceman, with little appeal for fantasy managers, but Granlund has produced 106 points (27 G, 79 A) in 123 games for the Sharks across the past two seasons. While Granlund is not likely to play as much in Dallas as he did in San Jose, he is skating on a line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, effectively replacing an injured Tyler Seguin in the Stars’ lineup.

#5 After what had been an uninspiring start to the season, Ottawa Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 18 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. Four of those 10 points have come via the power play and Sanderson now has 20 power play points this season, which ranks third behind only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.

#6 Emerging from a month-long slump that saw him contribute two assists in 14 games, Winnipeg Jets winger Cole Perfetti has tallied eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in his past six games. Perfetti’s ice time is still worth keeping an eye on, but when he’s producing, he tends to have a good situation with Nikolaj Ehlers and Vladislav Namestnikov on Winnipeg’s second line.

#7 After breaking through for 55 points (20 G, 35 A) last season, Kings forward Quinton Byfield has not been scoring at the same pace this season, despite playing nearly two minutes more per game. He has had some recent success, with seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past six games. Byfield is skating at centre on a line with Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere, a line with decent offensive potential and Fiala has started to break through lately, too.

#8 Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies is busting out in his second NHL season. His ice time is up from 13:41 per game last season to 18:24 per game this season and he has 17 points (10 G, 7 A) in his past 13 games. His 21 goals this season is tied for second on the team with John Tavares, behind only William Nylander (33). Knies also plays a physical game, which sets him apart from Toronto’s other top scorers, and he has 115 hits in 50 games, which makes him even more valuable to fantasy managers.

#9 Although the season is not going the way that the Seattle Kraken would have hoped, they can take some small victories in the process and it appears that they are starting to realize the potential of centre Shane Wright, the fourth pick in the 2022 Draft. Wright has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past seven games and is skating on a line with Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky, a pair of skilled veteran wingers. It’s not like Wright has suddenly become a top-tier forward, but he is a 21-year-old who is handling third-line minutes and second-unit power play time, so there is going to be continued growth.

#10 After being sidelined for nearly two months, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz returned to action Thursday and stopped 26 of 27 shots in a win at Seattle. Stolarz has a .929 save percentage, which is tops among goalies with at least 10 appearances, and has 15.39 Goals Saved Above Expected. While Stolarz has never been able to handle a starter’s workload for a full season, topping out at 28 games for Anaheim in 2021-2022, his quality play ensures that he will have a significant role for the Maple Leafs down the stretch, sharing time in the crease with Joseph Woll.

#11 His first couple of seasons in Calgary were pretty rough, at least relative to his best seasons in Florida, but Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau has been more dangerous this season. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past nine games while playing more than 21 minutes per game, a far cry from the 16:52 per game he played a few years ago in his first season with the Flames. Huberdeau, who has largely been known as a playmaker throughout his career, is up to 21 goals, with only 19 assists, on the season.

#12 After having his contract terminated by the St. Louis Blues, left winger Brandon Saad signed on with the Vegas Golden Knights, looking for a chance to win and, presumably, an opportunity to contribute more than he was in St. Louis this season. In his last 20 games for the Blues, Saad recorded six points (3 G, 3 A) and all three of his goals in that time happened in one game (vs. Ottawa). In Vegas, Saad is not getting power play time, which is not altogether unusual for him, but he is skating on a line with Brett Howden and Mark Stone at even strength and has one goal in his first three games for the Golden Knights.

#13 New York Islanders right winger Mathew Barzal is out of the lineup once again, this time due to a lower-body injury. Barzal is averaging a career-high 20:21 of ice time per game this season but has a modest 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 30 games. With Barzal out, the door is open for Anthony Duclair to move up the depth chart, but Duclair has been struggling, with just two points (1 G, 1 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past 16 games. A more appealing option for the Islanders could be Simon Holmstrom, who has six points (3 G, 3 A) in his past five games.

#14 The Nashville Predators have called up top prospect Joakim Kemell from Milwaukee of the AHL, where the 17th pick in the 2022 Draft had recorded 25 points (9 G, 16 A) in 38 games. He is slated to make his NHL debut Friday and could have a plum assignment to start his NHL career, skating on a line with Filip Forsberg and Steven Stamkos. That’s not taking a skilled young player and burying him on the fourth line. It’s taking that player and giving him a chance to succeed.

#15 San Jose is giving some prospects a chance to play, too. Collin Graf, who was signed out of Quinnipiac in the spring, had 30 points (8 G, 22 A) in 33 games for the San Jose Barracuda and has averaged more than 17 minutes of ice time, scoring one goal in two games since he was recalled to the Sharks. Graf is skating with Luke Kunin and Barclay Goodrow at even strength but does get second-unit power play time. The Sharks have also promoted veteran pro Andrew Poturalski, a 31-year-old centre who was leading the AHL with 45 points (18 G, 27 A) in 41 games at the time of his promotion. He has two assists in eight career NHL games, but the Sharks are giving him a chance to skate between Fabian Zetterlund and Will Smith, so there is a chance for him to provide some offense.

#16 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight has been steadily getting better and while he is clearly in a backup role, he is a much more valuable backup now. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Knight has a .937 save percentage and an astounding 11.12 Goals Saved Above Expected in eight games. It has not been the easiest path for the 2019 first-round pick, who sat out last season, but he is showing that his talent is still there and at just 23 years old, he should have a promising future in this league.

#17 It’s not time to panic over Mikko Rantanen’s move to Carolina, even if the premier winger has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in his first six games for the Hurricanes. Rantanen also has 21 shots on goal and 40 shot attempts in those six games, so the chances are there, but this player who has scored on 16.1 percent of his shots in his career is scoring on just 4.8 percent of them since the trade. That will regress soon enough, and this slow start with his new team could make Rantanen a little bit of a buy-low option.

#18 While he has tallied 10 power play goals in 26 games for the Montreal Canadiens, Patrik Laine has hit a scoring slump. The sharp-shooting winger has no points and eight shots on goal in his past six games and that highlights what happens when things go wrong for Laine. He stops generating shots and while he tends to be dependent on others to create chances, he can surely put himself in better positions to get shots because 1.3 shots per game is obviously not nearly enough for a player with his shooting talent.

#19 Another player enduring an offensive slump is Kings winger Adrian Kempe, who has zero points in his past six games but the part that is encouraging about Kempe is that he has 21 shots on goal in that stretch. He remains on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Alex Turcotte, as well as holding a spot on the Kings’ first line, so it is easier to see Kempe resuming his scoring ways. Kopitar is enduring his own slump, with one assist and 11 shots on goal in his past seven games, so they should be ready to get back on track at any moment.

#20 Red Wings goaltender Cam Talbot lost his first game after the Wings made their coaching change over the holiday break in December, but in 10 games since then, Talbot has nine wins and a .916 save percentage. Since Detroit is back into the playoff mix, that makes Talbot much more valuable for fantasy managers because the wins have become more accessible.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

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MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-edmonton-oilers-team-preview-player-profiles/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-edmonton-oilers-team-preview-player-profiles/#respond Mon, 02 Oct 2023 21:43:51 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=182043 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

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COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 25: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid #97 prior to the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Somehow, even after winning back-to-back Art Ross Trophies, Connor McDavid found yet another level to his game. He scored 64 goals and 153 points in 82 contests last season, giving us one of the greatest individual performances we’ve ever seen. As if that wasn’t enough, Leon Draisaitl had an amazing season in his own right, contributing 52 goals and 128 points while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman had career years with 104 and 83 points, respectively. Unsurprisingly, Edmonton led the league offensively with 3.96 goals per game, but all was not well. Jack Campbell was nothing short of a disaster, posting a 3.41 GAA and an .888 save percentage in 36 contests. At least rookie Stuart Skinner emerged with a 29-14-5 record, 2.75 GAA and .913 save percentage in 50 games, but relying on a young goaltender has its drawbacks. With the stakes risen in the playoffs, Skinner struggled, and Edmonton was ultimately eliminated in the second round to the Golden Knights. Skinner was yanked three times in that six-game series, undermining the efforts of McDavid and Draisaitl, who combined for 11 goals and 17 points versus Vegas.

What’s Changed? Very little. Connor Brown signed a one-year, $4 million deal with Edmonton and he’ll have a chance to earn a top-six spot. Mattias Janmark agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract and will likely be penciled in for the third line. Other than that, it will be essentially the same team as last year.

What would success look like? Anything short of winning the Stanley Cup would be disappointing. That might be unfair, but it’s what’s to be expected for a team that has McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime. That duo basically guarantees that the offense will be fine. A healthier season out of Evander Kane – he played just 41 games last year – would give them another strong scoring option. Brown is also an interesting pickup. He missed almost the entire 2022-23 campaign with a torn ACL, but at his best he’s a solid secondary scorer who could gel well with Edmonton’s elite forwards. Of course, the single-biggest boost would be a bounce back season from Campbell.

What could go wrong? Not that Campbell is a safe bet to rebound, and Skinner isn’t a sure thing either, given that he has just one full NHL season under his belt. There’s also a chance Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins will significantly regress after performing far above their norm last year, which would threaten to turn Edmonton’s attack into little more than the McDavid-Draisaitl show. The elite duo can make the Oilers competitive on their own, but they can’t win the Cup without ample support.

Top Breakout Candidate: Dylan Holloway had just three goals and nine points in 51 contests last season, but he averaged a mere 9:35 of ice time. Holloway has the potential to play a far bigger role and thrive in it. The 21-year-old is entering his sophomore campaign, so he might still need more seasoning and breaking into the top-six will be difficult. Still, he has a chance to be a valuable secondary scorer this year.

Forwards

Connor McDavid - C

A strange-but-true fact about McDavid’s historic season is that he didn’t lead the league in five-on-five points. Despite lapping the field in overall point production, becoming the first player to reach 150 since Bernie Nichols in 1989, he was only fourth in even strength points. He more than made up for this on special teams, as Edmonton’s top unit was the closest thing to an automatic goal in modern NHL history. McDavid obviously being the straw which stirred the drink and recording 71 points there alone. The explanation behind his 5-on-5 production was the Oilers shooting below 10% when he was on the ice, which included him scoring on a strong 16% of his shots. McDavid was still dominant, so much so that he won the Hart almost unanimously, so his 5-on-5 results demonstrate that there still was still another level he could have reached. It goes back to Edmonton’s recurring problem of surrounding their star player with good linemates. They still received a good season out of Zach Hyman, but they eventually had to revert to placing Draisaitl back on his wing after other options didn’t work. It’s an ancillary issue in the regular season but came back to haunt them in the playoffs where McDavid’s linemates scored only five goals on 46 of his setups. Still dominating on the power play, the Oilers star could get his points. Repeating their performance at 5-on-5 is what kept them out of the third round.

Leon Draisaitl - C

When Draisaitl retires, he could own a place in NHL history of the most seasons scoring 100+ points while not leading his own team. Built almost like a Hockey Voltron, Draisaitl has an unorthodox combo of being an elite shooter and an incredible passer while having a massive upper body that makes taking the puck away from him borderline impossible in the offensive zone. He is the master of the coffin-corner one-timer and still catches goaltenders off-guard with them. Also, one of the best at scoring off his backhand and elevating the puck from close-range. Still arguably a better passer than a shooter from a sheer degree of difficulty standpoint. He can move pucks from the wall to the slot effortlessly and his vision is almost unmatched. That said, there is still a question of “what do we do with him” in the Oilers lineup, as he was once again moved back between centering his own line and playing alongside McDavid. Draisaitl’s play-driving improved dramatically last year, finding ways to clean up his play in the defensive zone and make up for his lack of footspeed. Moving back to McDavid was more due to the Oilers needing more scoring from their top line in the playoffs than Draisaitl’s struggles. Enters this season in the same boat as his co-star where you know you’re getting outstanding results in the regular season and the playoffs are the next hurdle.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - LW

The number of NHLers who take 12 seasons to hit 100 points is probably low. In modern times, it happens about as often as a solar eclipse, so Nugent-Hopkins surprised a lot of people when he hit this milestone. Bringing new meaning to the term “power play specialist,” his point total with the man advantage (53) topped his entire total from last season (50). While not the catalyst, he played his part is making the Oilers power play a machine, patrolling the middle and always staying in motion so that their top guys always had a passing option open from a dangerous area. It’s not something you expect to continue at this level, but RNH has been a great power play guy in Edmonton for years now. He is the type of forward who you can use in a lot of ways, going from McDavid’s winger to a third line center, RNH usually gives you a solid level of play. This season was also one of his stronger years in terms of 5-on-5 scoring as well, where he didn’t always have star teammates to lean on. His versatility is a great tool to have, although it makes predicting next season a riddle. He’s not going to repeat the ridiculous powerplay numbers but getting back to the 65–70-point level he was at his peak shouldn’t be out of the question.

Zach Hyman - LW

Everyone on that Oilers top power play unit seemed to master the details of the game that made it great. For Zach Hyman, it was becoming a master at working the net front role. Using his body to catch loose pucks and quickly put them in the net, being a moving target instead of a stationary screen and popping out into the slot if the play was behind the net. The results speak for themselves, scoring 15 power play goals after having 11 total for his entire career before the season. He has been the perfect complement to McDavid, and it goes beyond his penchant for creating high danger chances. Hyman excels as the winger who can follow up plays to setup entries, creating a small bridge in the neutral zone to help McDavid and others gain speed and get closer to the net off the rush. It makes the relationship between him and the Oilers star more of a two-way street instead of McDavid doing all the work while Hyman goes to the net. Edmonton has gotten their money’s worth there and this is before factoring in the work he does on the penalty kill. Finding the third guy is the next challenge, as Hyman’s great in his role but doesn’t score or take many shots from distance, which is the one piece missing on the Oilers top line.

Evander Kane - RW

His second season in Edmonton was disrupted by a freak accident where he suffered a skate laceration on his wrist. Was a productive player with 13 points in 14 games before the injury and scored only 15 points the rest of the year. His game didn’t change much despite the injury, still the shoot-first, pass-second player he has been for his entire career. Kane was also less reliant on McDavid to score goals, tallying eight alongside Draisaitl whereas he only scored one goal away from McDavid at five-on-five last season. The more finesse part of his game was missing after the wrist injury, still shooting the puck often but missing the target and flubbing chances he usually gets. Also, less involved in helping move the puck up ice compared to previous years, not handling the puck much in the neutral zone and more of a secondary off-puck option on zone entries. Scored all but two of his goals at 5-on-5, as he didn’t see much power play time except for spot duty on the second unit. Brought in as support for McDavid, Kane’s spot in the Oilers lineup is known as of right now, but the revolving door nature of the Oilers wingers could lead him back there before the season is over.

Connor Brown - RW

Getting hurt in a contract year is always a bummer, especially for a player in the middle of the pack like Connor Brown. He has a chance to make up for some of that this year, signing a one-year incentive-laced contract with the Oilers. There is always an opportunity that you get slotted on their top line with their wing depth and McDavid might even vouch for his old OHL teammate. Brown brings a lot of qualities that make him a good fit with McDavid, but he’s going to have a good season regardless of where he slots. A hard-working winger who loves having the puck on his stick, Brown had a few good years in Ottawa playing high in the lineup. He was a fixture on their penalty kill and was one of the more aggressive players in the league at poaching for short-handed chances. Always hunting pucks down and has decent playmaking skills if in the right environment. Not a great finisher, but not far removed from a 21-goal season where he showed flashes of it. Edmonton could be looking to recapture some of that magic but at minimum they have a good third liner who will hold the fort down while their stars are on the bench.

Mattias Janmark - LW

If you’ve watched random highlights of Janmark, you might be tricked into thinking he has star potential. With speed to burn and decent puck-handling skills, many teams have given the Swede a call over his career. Even if he has one of the lowest conversion rates on breakaways, Janmark has forged a nice career as a solid defensive player and penalty killer. He’s good at using his speed to help clear pucks to relieve pressure and disrupt cycles. He’s also remarkably consistent in his production, scoring exactly 20-25 points in each of the last five years with three different teams. You know what you’re getting with him and it’s probably why the Oilers opted to retain him on another one-year deal. The important thing about playing in the Oilers bottom-six is to be at least a neutral player and Janmark can hold his own there. He gets more minutes than your average bottom-sixer, playing in the 14–15-minute range because of how much he is relied on the penalty kill. Formed a very solid checking line in the latter half of the season with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod that actually controlled play in addition to not giving up much defensively.

Warren Foegele - RW

Foegele is a great example of how it sometimes takes a while for a high scorer in junior or the AHL to figure out how to be a checker. Even if they have the skillset, there is more to playing on an energy line than just getting in on the forecheck, playing at 100 mph and crashing the net. There are more details that go into it and Foegele seemed to have mastered them in his second year with the Oilers. His line with Ryan McLeod was excellent not only at preventing chances and goals, but also tilting the ice and knowing how to set the table for the McDavid line. Foegele has all the skills to be a great checker, he’s a great F1 who will get in on the forecheck and is excellent at recovering pucks. Now it’s been about using his teammates better to keep the cycle going instead of everything directly going to the net. It’s not a pretty game, but he was effective for Edmonton in his role. This could change this year depending on how the Connor Brown experiment shakes out and who else is next in line for that winger spot.

Ryan McLeod - C

 A high scorer in the AHL, McLeod’s game at the NHL level is all about defense, although a new breed of it. We often associate puck-possession and things like transition, but McLeod is one of those players who has it translate to more defensive results. When he is on the ice, the Oilers usually have the puck in the defensive zone. He is very good at getting back to help the defense and moving the puck up ice on his own to flip the territorial game for Edmonton. Creates easy entries for himself through breaking up plays in the neutral zone and is deceptive with striking off the rush. He developed as a skill player in the minors, so the ability is there even if it’s not his role. Covers a lot of ground in the defensive zone getting to loose pucks without taking many strides and it helps his lines calm the waters at 5-on-5. Still only 23, he’s found a role on the Oilers and it’s an important one as they were looking for anybody to bring that calming effect at 5-on-5 while their stars are on the bench. Last year was the first time the Oilers had a positive goal differential without McDavid on the ice and McLeod’s play is a huge reason for it. Might be unknown around the league but certainly not in Edmonton.

Defense

Evan Bouchard - D

The potential Jenga piece for the Oilers going forward, this season was a big coming out party for Bouchard, specifically the playoffs. They spent most of the season trying to find a partner for him, as Bouchard was clearly top-four on a roster filled with players more suited for the 5/6 role, it took a trading for Ekholm to consistently get Bouchard in the 22-23 minutes range. They finally had a partner who could complement his high-risk game, covering more ground for him in the defensive zone so he could focus on playing the puck and starting the rush instead of trying to do everything as he did for most of the year. His offensive skills are unmatched on the Oilers blue line, it’s just the other details with being a defenseman that have been a work in progress, most notably exiting the zone against a heavy forecheck and playing too aggressive in the neutral zone. A better defense partner should help unlock his full potential. At the very least he is getting a lot of power play time next year and is poised for a monster year in terms of point production.

Darnell Nurse - D

Nurse’s play is often a lightning rod topic among Oilers fans. A good chunk of it is related to the contract he signed after a career season, which made him the fifth highest defenseman in the league at the time. The other is that watching him play will usually have you on the edge of your seat if you’re a fan. He’s an attack-minded defenseman at heart, sprinting out of the zone at the first opportunity and taking a lot of shots off the rush as the trailer. It’s a strategy that works for Edmonton sometimes, this year being a slight return to form from a production standpoint. This is also true for the defensive side of the game, as Nurse will often chase the puck or look to lay a big hit on players entering the zone. Often caught out of position or making a lot of mistakes that give opposing forwards a lot of open ice. It’s something you can coach out of players, but Nurse has to play aggressive to be effective and this just comes with the territory. He’s made up for this by not forcing as many plays out of the zone and giving way to some of their stronger puck movers when exiting the zone, but the overall package will continue to keep Edmonton’s heart rates high.

Mattias Ekholm - D

Edmonton made one of their best trades of the Ken Holland era by acquiring Mattias Ekholm at the deadline. A minute eater who can wear a lot of hats, this was exactly the type of player they have been missing for years. Ekholm doesn’t have that game-breaking skillset, but he does the little things that make life easier for Edmonton’s elite players. The most important is recovering after mistakes. Edmonton will try to push the pace more when their top guys are out and sometimes turnovers will happen. Ekholm is the type of player who won’t panic when that happens and quickly gets the puck out of the zone after. He was brought in to be paired with the offensive-minded Evan Bouchard, so it was a great fit from the start. He also has the sense of knowing when to force a play and when to clear the puck off the glass, although it’s usually the former as he’s an excellent passer with great vision. Also facilitates offense without accumulating a lot of points. A steadying presence from the point who can get pucks down low without risking turnovers. The only concerns with Ekholm are age and his durability as he gets closer to 35.

Brett Kulak - D

A problem solver of sorts for the Oilers defense, Kulak is someone who knows his role by now. He doesn’t get top minutes or get a lot of puck touches, so he is impactful when he gets the chance. Always standing up at the line to deny entries, doing an excellent job of taking away space in the defensive zone and occasionally jumping into the play (being out there with the third line means he’s usually one of their best options). Last year was a little rockier for him than usual, as the Oilers attempted to pair him with blossoming star Evan Bouchard and it wasn’t long before he was relegated back to the third pair with Tyson Barrie. Eventually he got a consistent partner in Vincent Desharnais and Kulak got back to his usual game after that. Surprisingly set a career high in points thanks to 13 secondary assists. One of the Oilers better retrievers of the puck but not the most dynamic puck mover, which has kept him lower in the lineup despite his strengths. Arguably the team’s most steady defenseman in the post-season, as he was on the ice for only four goals against.

Goaltending

Jack Campbell - G

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but the Edmonton Oilers have a goaltending problem. Jack Campbell, brought in as a pricey free agent after seemingly wearing out his welcome with the rabid Toronto fanbase, stumbled in his attempts to take the long-suffering team the distance. He managed to regain some of his game’s strongest elements down the back stretch of the season, controlling his movement and sitting back to allow his defense to help structure breakouts and coverage while he focused on eliminating open space in net with simple movements and fluid transitions. But his start with the Oilers was shaky; he struggled to find his rhythm behind the Western Conference competitors, ultimately losing his position as the team’s number one to up-and-comer Stuart Skinner.

The good news for Oilers fans is that it appears the days are gone of doggedly attempting to milk all the value possible out of every goaltender contract signed. Head Coach Jay Woodcroft seemed to abandon the Dave Tippett-era tendency to give deferential starts to the higher-paid veteran in net, opting to ride with Skinner when Campbell was struggling and happily going back to Campbell whenever he seemed up to the task. It was a refreshing change of pace after watching Mike Smith struggle to put up league-average numbers through three seasons, and it seemed to benefit both goaltenders in the long run. But still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the Oilers have Campbell signed for another four years of five million per season against the cap, and he put up a -16.77 goals saved above expected as the team’s backup – only nine of the league’s 75 goaltenders with sufficient starting data last season did worse. The team will need to see Campbell continue his bounce-back from the back half of the season through the entirety of the 2023-24 season, or they’ll have to consider finding a way to move him out for a more steadying presence. With captain Connor McDavid turning 27 this season, Edmonton has to consider what they need to do to capitalize on the star’s window to push and become a legitimate threat in the postseason; unless Campbell bounces back definitively, he’ll fail to fit that bill.

Projected starts: 35-40

Stuart Skinner - G

The Edmonton Oilers have gone so long without seeing a goaltending prospect pan out in their favor, it seemed almost too good to be true last season when rookie Stuart Skinner gently took control of the crease from veteran Jack Campbell. But as the season progressed, it became abundantly clear; Skinner was exactly what the team needed, and he was there to stay.

Skinner, a 2017 draft pick out of the WHL, put up bumpy numbers in his first two pro seasons; he struggled to approach a .900 save percentage in either 2018-19 or 2019-20 at either the AHL or ECHL level, waffling between the two leagues without finding much success in either. But despite a rocky NHL debut in his third pro year, Skinner finally started to find his feet; he established better tracking skills and fine-tuned his technical foundation while cleaning up his game reads and becoming more patient on his skates. He initially lost a little bit of the creativity that had made his game so exciting to watch as a prospect in the CHL, but fans saw some of that spark return during Edmonton’s postseason run in the spring of 2023 as he proved he was unafraid to throw technique to the wind and mix in some old-school goaltending style when it suited him. It was like he learned to relax once he found his footing with some better technical foundations, and that’s a promising sign that his impressive game play last year wasn’t just a flash in the pan. The question, though, will be just how much he can shoulder a heavy workload if Jack Campbell continues to struggle. He held down the fort for a whopping 50 games last season and will likely need to do the same this year – while he’s still young, the kind of wear and tear that immediately taking on a starter’s workload at the NHL level can put on a young goaltender could start to qrip at the seams of his skill a little bit.

Projected starts: 50-55

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NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-playoff-preview-vegas-golden-knights-edmonton-oilers-vegas-regular-season-oilers-edge-special-teams-carry-series/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-playoff-preview-vegas-golden-knights-edmonton-oilers-vegas-regular-season-oilers-edge-special-teams-carry-series/#respond Mon, 01 May 2023 22:30:22 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=180966 Read More... from NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out

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EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 19: Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Nicolas Hague (14) clears the puck from Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on November 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

VEGAS vs. EDMONTON

After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.

Forwards

One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.

The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.

For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.

The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.

Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.

Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.

Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.

While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.

Defense

When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.

The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.

Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.

The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.

Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.

Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.

Goaltending

Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.

Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.

This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.

Special Teams

Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.

The Golden Knights power play ranked 10th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.

While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.

If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.

Conclusion

Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.

Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.

 

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MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – NHL Player Profiles https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-edmonton-oilers-nhl-player-profiles/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2022-23-nhl-yearbook-edmonton-oilers-nhl-player-profiles/#respond Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:11:28 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=177445 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – NHL Player Profiles

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EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 19: Edmonton Oilers Center Leon Draisaitl (29) uses his speed to track down a loose puck in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the New Jersy Devils on March 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid

The scary thing about McDavid’s 2021-22 season is that he was relatively unlucky when it came to shooting luck and he still finished with 123 points. The game comes so easy for him that it’s rare for the Oilers not to get at least one scoring chance per shift with him on the ice, so an average shooting year for him is a career season for most. It was an interesting season or him. He was still an elite player at creating off the rush but didn’t have the scale breaking stats like the previous year. Instead, he was deferring to teammates on entries and trailing the rush instead of leading it. Still having an elite impact on driving offense and making up for any lost ground on the power play, where his 44 points were more than some team’s entire goal total with the man advantage. There was also an effort to improve his play away from the puck, as he had the Oilers playing less run-and-gun and more of a full-rink press. Keeping play in the offensive zone and deferring to someone else or making the simple play instead of trying to force things. He could still break the game open if he needed to, as most saw in the playoffs where he dragged the Oilers to the Conference Finals on his own. That version of McDavid is still present, but the Oilers are getting to the point where they don’t need him to go into superstar mode every night to win.

Leon Draisaitl

Accuracy is the name of the game for Draisaitl regardless of he’s passing or shooting the puck. A selective but lethal shooter, Draisaitl’s 55 goals would have led the league most in most seasons and he matched it with 55 assists. He’s a selective, but lethal shooter who will turn low-percentage plays into high-danger plays. Most scorers will look to find the “soft” area in the defense and with Draisaitl, that area extends all the way to the boards, as he can beat goaltenders from some awkward and impossible angles. Arguably the best player in the league at doing this not named Sidney Crosby. His passing is just as good, excelling at pulling pucks off the boards, threading the needle between defenders and turning 50/50 puck battles into scoring chances. Style points don’t count but the degree of difficulty of Draisaitl’s playmaking is something to behold. He passes the puck off his backhand as hard as some players shoot it and he usually finds the tape. It’s how he’s been able to put up ridiculous scoring numbers every year despite his team getting outshot and outchanced while he is on the ice. The deceptive nature of his game also makes the Oilers power play click because he can score from just about anywhere in the zone and find someone open for a deflection chance even if they’re covered. Now that he's playing center full-time (when healthy), he gives Edmonton the most explosive one-two punch in the NHL.

Zach Hyman

The Oilers had certain expectations for Zach Hyman when they signed him to a seven-year contract. They wanted him to be McDavid’s wingman, score on a lot of rebounds and provide a forechecking presence to a team that lacked it. Hard to not be pleased with his first year. He scored 27 goals and was a great third wheel on McDavid’s line for most of the year and giving the Oilers penalty kill a counter-attacking dynamic with five shorthanded points. The calling card with Hyman has always been forechecking and scoring “ugly” goals, usually scoring by circumstance instead of getting to the net. It’s an important quality to have on your top line, as the Oilers found out in the playoffs where Hyman had 11 tallies, three of them coming on the power play. Finding a running mate for McDavid has been long-term problem for McDavid and while it cost them, Hyman filled this void in his rookie year. His play away from McDavid is a bit of a concern, as he was underwater in terms of scoring chance and goal differential when he wasn’t on a line with the Oilers captain. It’s not a surprise given the Oilers forward depth issues, but Hyman is a good forechecker with decent puck skills and should be able to drive his own line if push comes to shove. This will be more of a concern when he’s deeper into his contract but for now, he is set to have another good year as McDavid’s wingman.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

The remaining member of the Oilers old core, RNH is the most plug-and-play type of guy the Oilers have right now. Whether you put him in the middle, on the wing, with McDavid or in the middle-six, he’s going to play his role and give you a high floor with what he brings. That said, he spent most of the year on Draisaitl’s wing and the Oilers had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net while that line was on the ice. A mid-season line switch moved RNH to essentially a third line center role and he excelled as a checker, providing a stabilizing presence in the Oilers bottom-six and keeping the team’s heads above water while their two money maker lines did their thing. It’s a tough way to use a center making over $5 mil., but RNH’s defensive game has value. He is one of their best forwards at retrieving pucks to exit the zone and the Oilers desperately need to win the minutes where their two stars aren’t on the ice. He made up for his lack of 5v5 offense on the power play, recording 22 assists with the man advantage and playing a variety of roles. His versatility makes him a valuable player but a tough one to project due to the volatile nature of the Oilers lineup. They will continue to feed him power play and penalty kill minutes, though.

Jesse Puljujarvi

It’s hard to believe how much of a lightning rod the former third overall pick was for Oilers discourse last year. Puljujarvi played a very similar game to Zach Hyman as a complementary player for McDavid, he just didn’t finish on as many of his chances, which unfortunately was his major drawback. No Oilers player was on the receiving end of more high danger passes than Puljujarvi and he scored only nine five-on-five goals on 140 scoring chances. Puck skill is one of the more frustrating parts of his game, as he will often skate himself out of room when he gets a good chance from close range or just mishit the puck, turning a high danger chance into one that’s easier to stop. It only takes one good year to change this narrative, though and it’s better to have a topliner who is producing chances and not finishing than doing neither. Aside from that, Puljujarvi is coming off a fantastic year, as the Oilers were a dominant team when he was on the ice. Part of it is the McDavid effect, but “JP” has come a long way as a defensive player, always in a good position to help retrieve pucks to get McDavid the puck in space or being a nuisance on the forecheck to keep their top line on the ice. If the goal-scoring ever comes around, the Oilers top-six will be a force.

Kailer Yamamoto

A high-motor player who will never cheat you on effort, Yamamoto had a decent bounce-back year after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career was a Swiss Army Knife type of winger for the Oilers, moving around the lineup filling whatever niche the coaching staff needed. While productive, his impact has been a little inconsistent, as he’s had a tough time driving play despite his strengths with recovering pucks and his willingness to go to the net. Part of that is because he doesn’t produce much offense in volume, posting one of the lowest shot rates on the Oilers and going stretches of games where he didn’t even test the goalie. Playing so much with McDavid and Draisaitl, he might have some hesitance to taking the reins on his line, deferring to the more talented players while assuming the worker bee role he’s had for most of his career. It’s tough to say if this is what was going on with Yamamoto, but he showed in the playoffs that he can drive a line, being a forechecking menace in the Calgary series and starting most of the plays with Nugent-Hopkins as his center. Seeing that reminds you that there is another level he can reach as a player even if he is in a pretty good spot now.

Ryan McLeod

Every prospect has different expectations. For Ryan McLeod, the Oilers only needed him to hold down a third- or fourth-line spot while being a neutral in terms of driving-play or suppressing goals. His impressive AHL production carrying over was secondary. His quickness gives the Oilers depth a different element from previous years, as it was rare for their third or fourth line to try and push the pace in past years. Also made him useful with covering up for the Oilers lack of mobility on their blue line, you would see him retrieve pucks for breakouts more often than their defense, even leading the rush on some shifts. The year was a grind for him, Edmonton struggled to find consistent linemates and McLeod would have to play a lot of one-man shifts where he would go from one end to the other without much payoff in the offensive zone. It was the role he needed to play, keeping the scoreboard from changing during stretches where the game becomes a slog. He is an example of how a skilled prospect can use those tools outside of creating offense because you still need to skate and connect the dots to keep the puck out of your own zone.

Evander Kane

Fresh off a buyout with the Sharks, Kane showed the Oilers that he can still score goals, tallying 22 in his 43-game stint and 13 more in 15 playoff games. Getting the “McDavid bump” on top of a career best shooting percentage, Edmonton re-signed him for four years in hopes that a full season can give McDavid a long-term solution on the wing. It’s tough to say if he can repeat this next year, as Kane has always been a shot-volume player who converts on a low percentage of his chances. The playmaking of McDavid might fix that, but line combos are always subject to change throughout the year. It’s a little concerning because 10 of his 5v5 12 five-on-five goals came while he was on a line with McDavid. By comparison, he scored only one five-on-five goal with Draisaitl centering him, which should give fantasy player some concern if the Oilers juggle their lines. His limited play-driving and passing skills make Kane a very one-dimensional player whose value is going to be determined by his goal-total, so this is a boom-or-bust signing for Edmonton.

Warren Foegele

The former Erie Otters star spent most of the year playing wing on the fourth line with his ex-Carolina teammate in Derek Ryan with some penalty killing duty thrown in. Last year was the first time it looked like he accepted his role as a grinder in the NHL, as he was still in the prospect mindset with Carolina. He had such a hot start to his NHL career that you would see him try to recapture that, making a lot of high-risk plays every shift and trying to make plays that he didn’t have the hands or precision to finish off at this level. With Edmonton, he looked a little more comfortable in his skin as a checking line player. Playing a straight-line game, not looking to carry the puck in much at all and relying more on his tenacity and forechecking to create an impact than making any plays. The result were decent impacts at five-on-five, but nothing spectacular. He also saw some power play time on the second unit, playing the netfront role and having a few pucks go off him for goals. There was more offense to Foegele’s game at one point, but this seems to be the role he has settled into for now.

DEFENSE

Evan Bouchard

Only 22 years old with the face of a grizzled veteran, Bouchard was a major lifeline for the Oilers defense. He is the prototype of what most teams look for in a young defenseman, standing over six feet tall with great puck skills and a big shot from the point, and Edmonton didn’t hold him back from showcasing this in his first full season. He carried most of the offensive load at five-on-five on their blue line, emerging as their best passer on breakout and when making plays in transition, and his shot gave defenders another thing to worry about when defending McDavid’s line. Edmonton is going to be a team that thrives on quick-strike offense, so Bouchard’s play in this area is a huge development for them, especially when it comes to leading counterattacks. His aggressive playing style did hurt him at times. He was very aggressive with stepping up at the blue line or going for a poke-check. It resulted in him negating some rushes, but he also got burned just as much. It’s an area of his game that’s fixable, especially if he’s paired with a reliable partner like Brett Kulak, and you want a guy like Bouchard to push the pace when he can. They will look to find a happy medium between the two extremes next year.

Tyson Barrie

Relegated to third pair duty, Barrie’s main purpose on the Oilers is to get the puck to McDavid or Draisaitl on the power play and not get destroyed at five-on-five. It’s easier said than done now that he’s not playing as many shifts behind the Oilers top line, which means he defends on more of his shifts and doesn’t get any opportunities to start the rush like in his Colorado days. It’s a tough game for a smaller defenseman like Barrie to play because offense is his calling card and playing more of a grinding style caters to his weakness. That said, players like Bouchard surpassed him in the lineup so this is the role he needs to play unless the Oilers deploy him differently. Which could happen if he starts the year paired with rookie Phillip Broberg. Barrie will continue to eat on the power play unless Bouchard or Darnell Nurse takes his spot. He has run the top of the umbrella on their league leading power play unit for a couple of years now, so it’s tough to see it changing for continuity purposes.

Darnell Nurse

It was a tale of two halves for the Oilers high-octane defenseman. He was paired with a similar player in Evan Bouchard, acting as both the aggressor and the fireman depending on the situation. They played behind the McDavid line, supplementing him on offense but getting burned for a lot of goals against. Once Jay Woodcroft took over, Nurse was switched to a shutdown role with Cody Ceci. Surprisingly, the two worked well and gave the Oilers blue line some stability, having one pair for offense and one for shutdown minutes. Nurse’s defensive play improved, giving up fewer chances off rushes and the Oilers played a more controlled game in front of him. He had to pick his spots on when to join the offense, but the Oilers were better off as a group. It’s an interesting way to use Nurse because his strengths are all from the red line in. He is very dangerous as the late man and can be lethal if he has any daylight with the puck but exiting the zone under pressure and shaking off forecheckers has never been his strong suit. Playing the shutdown role where he’s relied on for safe, responsible clears takes some workload off him and while he did well in that role, it’s a lot for someone carrying a $9.25 million cap hit for the next eight years. The 16-goal season where he was always pushing for offense made him one of the highest paid players in the league, even if it wasn’t the most optimal way to use him. Bouchard’s emergence took some of the burden off him and him switching roles so seamlessly is encouraging for the Oilers, even if his contract is going to be tough to deal going forward.

Brett Kulak

After exhausting most of their in-house options, the Oilers settled on trading for Kulak to round out their defense. The 28-year-old is a jack-of-all-trades defenseman can play most styles and found his niche in Edmonton as a penalty kill specialist who can help salt games away. He isn’t very big, but can skate with most top forwards, keeping them to the outside when defending entries and join the play if he needs to. He was a calming presence alongside Tyson Barrie on Edmonton’s third pair, with an elevated role late in games when the Oilers were defending a lead. Not much offense is expected of him, but he can pitch in here-and-there thanks to his great mobility and the Oilers could have him playing higher in the lineup with Duncan Keith’s old spot up for grabs. He was a reliable defender in Montreal with the only knock on his game being his play in front of the net, as his strong positioning and stickwork with defending entries doesn’t always translate to boxing out forwards. His strength with keeping play out of the defensive zone makes it not as big of a problem, though.

GOALTENDING

Jack Campbell

Edmonton has seemingly been trying to finally figure out what’s going on in their net for the last 15 years. Now, fresh off the heels of a two-year stretch under the microscope in Toronto, Jack Campbell is next up as a candidate to help the team right the ship. It’s another high-pressure situation for Campbell – but this time, he won’t be coming on board to be the team’s number two.

The once-highly-touted American netminder offers a sharp contrast to the goaltender he’ll be taking over for as the team’s clear-consensus starter. He lacks MIke Smith’s almost confrontational aura, instead opting for a “buds all day” approach that endears him to fans but can look a little less competitive overall. He plays differently, too; gone will be the days of a veteran giant manning the crease nearly from behind the goal line, replaced instead by a nimble and slightly more modern goaltender who plays a bit more centered in the blue paint and seems perfectly willing to let his defense control zone breakouts on their own. This could mean structural changes for the Edmonton blue line, although that was likely already on the horizon with Dave Tippett’s departure still fresh on the team’s mind.

The good news for Edmonton is that Campbell, who seems to thrive in a more team-oriented environment than Mike Smith ever did, shouldn’t need to worry about navigating a potentially tricky dynamic with Smith. The elder goaltender, while still under contract with the Oilers for the 2022-23 season, is expected to miss the season with a long-term injury – paving the way for Stuart Skinner to sit as the team’s number two and for Campbell to focus on his performance, not on losing starts to a hyper-competitive tandem partner. But the bad news is that Skinner remains relatively unproven on the NHL stage. This leaves Campbell without the lifeline that Smith’s experience likely would have afforded him should he find himself struggling consistency-wise during the season.

Projected starts: 60-65

 

 

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Sens-Less – Ottawa Senators 2018-19 Season Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/sens-less-ottawa-senators-2018-19-season-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/sens-less-ottawa-senators-2018-19-season-preview/#respond Sat, 15 Sep 2018 17:50:53 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=150428 Read More... from Sens-Less – Ottawa Senators 2018-19 Season Preview

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REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Ottawa Senators are perhaps a team that could be best described with a long sigh.  The worst part is that it wasn’t so long-ago things looked alright for the Senators.  They were a single win away from the Stanley Cup Final in 2017 and while you could easily argue that they over performed, at least they went into 2017-18 looking like a franchise that was trending in the right direction.

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Senators last season, did go wrong, including some things that you would have never even considered.  The team finished with a 28-43-11 record and instead of being on the brink of contending, are now in a position where they need to rebuild.  To make matters worse, just before the Senators’ collapse, they traded an unprotected first round pick for Matt Duchene, so no matter how badly they do in 2018-19, the Colorado Avalanche will control the Senators’ 2019 first round draft pick.

AND IT GETS WORSE – The Ottawa Senators began their rebuild before the 2017-18 campaign ended by trading Derick Brassard to the Pittsburgh Penguins as part of a three-way trade to get, among other things, Pittsburgh’s 2018 first-round pick.  Brassard’s contract extends through 2018-19, so trading him away was about more than just Ottawa’s position last season.

After the campaign, the Ottawa Senators dealt away another top-six forward in Mike Hoffman.  The reasons for trading Hoffman was due to off-ice matters that are probably best not discussed here, but the consequence of Ottawa being in a position where it had to trade Hoffman was that the Senators got far less than normal market value for him.

Although at the time of writing there hasn’t been another trade by the Senators since they dealt Hoffman, that might not be the end of it.  Goaltender Craig Anderson reportedly requested a trade, though he said in late August that he’s fine staying in Ottawa so long as there isn’t any drama.  Of more pressing importance is the matter of Erik Karlsson, who can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019.  If the Senators aren’t confident in their ability to re-sign him, then it’s important that he be dealt before the trade deadline to avoid suffering a fate similar to the New York Islanders’ with John Tavares.

Speaking of pending UFAs, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene also fall into that category.  So, the Senators’ front office has a lot of work ahead of them.

IS THERE A SILVER LINING? – There’s not much of one in the near-term, but no franchise is without hope and that is true of the Ottawa Senators as well.  First off, you could work out a scenario where the Senators end up exceeding their low expectations this season with Karlsson and Duchene leading the charge, Marian Gaborik staying healthy, and one of Anderson or Mike Condon bouncing back to provide the team with solid goaltending.  However, rather than trying to envision an unlikely, albeit not impossible, set of circumstances where the Senators might have a passable season, it’s probably better to think about their future.

Not having control of their first-round pick in 2019 is embarrassing for the Senators given their circumstances.  The upside though is that they do have some promising prospects already in their franchise with two of the most notable ones being Logan Brown and Brady Tkachuk.  Both might end up as members of the 2018-19 squad and provide a silver lining in what might be an otherwise difficult season.

The Senators also could potentially turn Karlsson and Duchene into significant prospects/picks through trades that would meaningfully push forward their rebuilding efforts.  A trade involving Stone would certainly serve that purpose as well, but the ideal would be to re-sign him to serve as a leader for the next generation given that he’s still just 26-years-old.

Ottawa also only has three players under one-way contracts beyond 2019-20 in Bobby Ryan, Gaborik, and Zack Smith.  While in one respect that’s part of the problem, that also gives the Senators a lot of flexibility with how they shape their team going forward and opens the door to Ottawa potentially engaging in trades that involve them taking on some cap burden in exchange for more picks/prospects.

OUTLOOK – This is likely going to be a difficult season for Ottawa on the ice, but an interesting one on the trade front.  The moves that are made in the next few months could define the Senators for years to come and for that reason, the Senators are a franchise to keep an eye on even if not much is expected of them right now.

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Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-hockey-waiver-wire-4/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-hockey-waiver-wire-4/#respond Tue, 09 Feb 2016 20:00:58 +0000 http://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=104837 Read More... from Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire

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The NHL trade deadline is fast approaching and now is the time to make a move and give your fantasy roster a push if you are a contender. This week the Waiver Wire looks at NHL players on hot streaks. Some are short term solutions, but some may have keeper potential for some leagues.

Jordan Staal - Player PageJordan Staal, Centre – Carolina Hurricanes, 50% owned

Carolina currently sits just outside a playoff spot, and are 5-3-2 in their last ten games. In that stretch, Staal has ten points, including four points in his last two games. Staal is putting up a strong second half of the season so far with 16 points in a 14 game span, and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Benoit Pouliot, Left Wing – Edmonton Oilers, 45% owned

Pouliot has seven points in his last ten games, including back-to-back two point games coming against Ottawa, and Columbus. As long as he remains on a line with Connor McDavid, and Jordan Eberle, Pouliot is fantasy relevant and is worthy of picking up off the waiver wire over a higher profile player who is slumping or injured.NHL: FEB 24 Oilers at Wild

Zack Kassian, Right Wing – Edmonton Oilers, 26% owned

His second chance this season (and likely the last of his career) with Edmonton has gotten off to a good start, considering he missed the first half of the season and training camp. Kassian has played in ten games for the Oilers and has four points, 16 shots, 43 penalty minutes, and 37 hits. He has shown flashes of offensive skill during his career in the minors and when he was on a line with the Sedin twins in Vancouver. His real fantasy value comes in leagues which score peripheral stats such as hits and PIM’s.

Joseph Blandisi, Left Wing – New Jersey Devils, 27% owned

Since being recalled by the Devils Blandisi has been on fire with four points in four games. He has been bounced between the NHL and AHL a few times this season, but to date he has ten points including three powerplay points in 15 games. He mainly gets recalled for injury relief, but his offensive production may earn him a regular roster spot on the top line with Adam Henrique and Lee Stempniak as well as powerplay time. Don’t sleep on Blandisi!

Cody Ceci, Defence – Ottawa Senators, 41% owned

The Sens only other offensive defenseman has been red hot lately with eight points in his last ten games, doubling his point total on the year to 16 in 47 games. That scoring pace has him on par with teammate Erik Karlsson, which is obviously unsustainable, but shows promise for his offensive development and fantasy relevance going forward. The former first round pick continues to improve, suggesting his ownership number will quickly increase so don’t procrastinate.

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Prospect Update: Laughton, Kosmachuk, Leivo, Ceci https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/prospect-update-laughton-kosmachuk-leivo-ceci/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/prospect-update-laughton-kosmachuk-leivo-ceci/#respond Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:08:01 +0000 http://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=30186 Read More... from Prospect Update: Laughton, Kosmachuk, Leivo, Ceci

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 Scott Laughton (Philadelphia Flyers), C, Oshawa Generals

6’1, 190 lbs, DOB: May 30, 1994

If it becomes difficult to define Scott Laughton’s role with the Oshawa Generals, there is good reason for it. Laughton has done just about everything for his team this season. The Flyers prospect excels as a number two centre providing secondary offence yet one might take him for a third line checking forward with the physical play and defensive acumen that Laughton provides. Laughton’s tenacity on the forecheck and his appetite for throwing hits at every turn allows the Generals to pressure their opponents in the offensive zone for the length of his shifts. Laughton’s defensive efforts are rewarded with ample penalty killing minutes which he further justifies by taking away time and space from his opponents. Laughton is a 200 ft player and not surprisingly is very effective through transitions and zone entries. Laughton’s puck skills are often overlooked but his stick handling and speed allows him to bring the puck up the middle of the ice while his vision allows him to find linemates to create scoring opportunities. Earlier in the season, Laughton filled in as the number one centre for the Generals and executed the task admirably, displaying his ability to quarterback the team’s first powerplay unit as well as showcasing his skills in finishing scoring chances.

Scott Kosmachuk (Winnipeg Jets), RW, Guelph Storm

5’11, 187 lbs, DOB: January 24, 1994

As the Guelph Storm’s leading scorer and engine behind the team’s top line, Scott Kosmachuk provides a dynamic offensive presence, particularly in the attacking zone. Kosmachuk’s offensive talent is driven by  strong puck skills and the ability to execute with very little time and space. Kosmachuk thrives in corners and crowded ice and is able to maintain the Storm’s offensive zone presence by either stickhandling his way out or by firing a pass to a linemate. While playmaking is a strength, finishing plays  comes naturally as well – two traits evident when observing Kosmachuk perform during powerplays. Kosmachuk can be effective when the game becomes gritty and he is able to offer a strong presence in the slot. While not a two-way forward in the traditional sense, Kosmachuk’s quickness with his stick allows him to be effective without the puck as well. Developing a larger identity in the defensive zone would provide the Storm with a more potent transition game.

Josh  Leivo (Toronto Maple Leafs), LW, Kitchener Rangers

6’1, 191 lbs, DOB: May 26, 1993

The leading scorer for the Kitchener Rangers, Josh Leivo is often the architect behind their top line offence. An exceptional playmaker, Leivo is methodical and calculating with his execution – allowing him to see the ice very well. Leivo can create offence off the rush but his vision allows the Rangers to establish a presence in the offensive zone and manage the pace of the flow with the opposition drawn to him. Leivo is comfortable setting up at virtually any location within the offensive zone, adding creativity to the Rangers attack, all the while keeping opponents on their toes. Naturally, Leivo excels on the powerplay.  His vision and dynamic puck movement allows him to direct the Rangers powerplay from various vantage points from which he can surgically deliver passes to the goal line creating scoring chances. Leivo has developed better consistency in the defensive zone and this has progressed to being able to initiate plays from the back end, rounding him into a more responsible player.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa Senators), D, Owen Sound Attack

6’3, 215 lbs, DOB: December 21, 1993

In their trade with Ottawa, Owen Sound received one of the league’s top producers from the blueline. In particular, Ceci’s play on the powerplay has been exceptional. With limited skating involved with the man advantage, Ceci’s hockey sense and shot boosts Owen Sound’s chances of netting a goal. The Senators prospect uses his massive frame to protect the puck and uses north-south movement on the powerplay to give the Attack dynamic properties. Ceci plays the point with his head up and moves methodically seeking shooting lanes giving teammates an opportunity to move into high percentage scoring areas. Ceci is quite comfortable acting as quarterback for an umbrella powerplay which allows him to use a heavy one-time shot. Ceci is deceptive in his ability to join the rush constantly providing Owen Sound with odd man rushes.  As a defender, Ceci is difficult to beat on rushes without lateral movement as he allows very little maneuvering space along the boards. Physical when needed, Ceci provides his goaltenders with breathing room, using his mass to box out attacking forwards. Developing his footwork would further advance Owen Sound’s attack.

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