Dakota Joshua – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Team Preview

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 16:00:37 +0000

_{VANCOUVER, BC - NOVEMBER 06: Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes (43) waits for a face-off during an NHL game against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Arena on November 6, 2023 in Vancouver, B.C. (Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire)}

After managing just 83 points during the 2022-2023 season, the Canucks did not have great expectations going into the 2023-2024 campaign. However, the Canucks ultimately won the Pacific Division, accumulating 109 points (50-23-9). The Canucks were the beneficiaries of lofty percentages last season. During five-on-five play, Vancouver scored on 10.6% of its shots, the highest mark in the league. To their credit, the Canucks ranked seventh in both Corsi (52.8%) and expected goals percentage (53.2%), so the underlying numbers were positive indicators before the Canucks turned into such highly efficient finishers. The Vancouver power play ranked 12th with 8.18 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty killing unit ranked 19th with 7.64 goals against per 60 minutes. There is not much to be gained from those special teams results, so the Canucks enjoyed their success because of a strong possession game coupled with league-best finishing around the net.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Canucks shuffled the deck this offseason, while keeping the core intact. They traded Ilya Mikheyev to Chicago to shed salary and moved the rights to Sam Lafferty in that same deal, though Lafferty ultimately signed with Buffalo. Players that the Canucks acquired last season moved on as free agents. Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm both landed in Boston and Anthony Beauvillier signed in Pittsburgh. Defenceman Ian Cole signed with Utah and goaltender Casey DeSmith landed in Dallas. With all those bodies leaving, the Canucks signed left wingers Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen from Boston, as well as right wingers Daniel Sprong from Detroit and Kiefer Sherwood from Nashville. On defence, the Canucks inked Derek Forbort from Boston and Vincent Desharnais from Edmonton.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? After finishing in first place in the Pacific Division and taking the Edmonton Oilers to seven games in the second round, success will look different for the Canucks in 2024-2025. While they are prime candidates to experience regression from that lofty shooting percentage, they are going to have expectations that they will not only make the playoffs but at least win a round and maybe more. To have that kind of success, they will likely need to have their stars play like stars – Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Thatcher Demko were all excellent last season, driving the team’s results.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? The most glaring concern for the Canucks could be that they just stop scoring so easily. The Canucks scored on 10.6% of their shots during five-on-five play which was about two percent higher than league average. That would have a ripple effect throughout the lineup as players like Miller, Hughes, and Pettersson would all face uphill fights to maintain the same level of production. An injury to Hughes would pose a problem on a Vancouver defence that is not long on puck-moving talent, but Hughes has also been very durable, so it’s not like he should be expected to miss time.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Even though he scored 24 goals last season, Nils Hoglander is still a bona fide breakout candidate for the Canucks. Hoglander had a strong season, which included scoring on 20% of his shots on goal, which is not likely to carry over to a new season. On the other hand, Hoglander played just over 12 minutes per game last season and appears to be ticketed for a bigger role in 2024-2025. He could very well start on the left side of a line with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, and while it’s easy to say that Hoglander’s shooting percentage will come down, it’s just as easy to say that he will play more than 12 minutes per game in 2024-25. Getting more minutes, potentially with more skilled linemates, opens up Hoglander to having a bigger impact this season.

Forwards

Elias Pettersson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	40	59	99	1.21

Across the past two seasons, Pettersson has accumulated 191 points, which ranks tenth in the National Hockey League. Pettersson is a cerebral player who does not depend on physicality but always knows where to be on the ice and is ready to shoot when the opportunity presents itself. Pettersson has a terrific shot and can score from distance using a wrist shot or a one-timer, particularly on the power play. It is not easy to beat NHL goaltenders cleanly on a shot from distance, but Pettersson can do it, so allowing him the time and space to unleash that cannon is a bad decision from those defending against the Canucks centre. Pettersson delivers consistently strong possession numbers, and the Canucks have outscored the opposition every season during five-on-five play with Pettersson on the ice. Last season, they outscored the opposition 67-47 with Pettersson on the ice. He also showed marked improvement in the faceoff circle, winning 50.8 percent of his draws. It was the first season of Pettersson’s career that he won more than 45.0 percent of his faceoffs. He also recorded a career-high 125 hits and can surprise opponents when he suddenly steps into them with more authority. That seems to indicate a little more edge to Pettersson’s play and that should serve him well. He’s a finesse player and a really good one, but it helps if he can carve out more space to maneuver on the ice. Petterson has been able to stay healthy, missing a total of four games across the past three seasons, and has established that he can produce at better than a point-per-game clip. Looking ahead to 2024-2025, Pettersson should be able to score 35 goals and 85-90 points.

J.T. Miller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	34	64	98	1.20

After years of inconsistency, particularly on the defensive end, Miller set career highs with 37 goals and 103 points last season. He won 56.3 percent of his faceoffs and took 1,461 draws, the ninth-highest total in the league. Miller is a physically strong player who has grown increasingly comfortable using his size to add a physical presence. He has reached 200 hits in each of the past two seasons, and his 284 points across the past three seasons ranks tenth in the NHL, while his 108 power play points in that time ranks eighth. A centre that wins faceoffs, hits, and puts up elite point totals, Miller is one of the top players in the game when healthy. He has also not been caught dogging it on backchecks, an indiscretion that would creep into his game from time to time. Miller had an epic productive season in 2023-2024 while playing 19:29 per game, his lowest average time on ice since arriving in Vancouver for the 2019-2020 season. The 31-year-old is still going strong and should be counted on to score 30-35 goals and 90 points for Vancouver. On his way to a career-best scoring season in 2023-2024, Miller depended on a shooting percentage of 19.1 percent and an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.0 percent. It is highly unlikely that Miller can hit those thresholds again in 2024-2025.

Brock Boeser

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	35	30	65	0.81

As the 2022-2023 season concluded, it looked like Boeser might have played his last game for the Canucks. They stuck with him, though, and were rewarded in a big way last season, when he set career high with 40 goals and 73 points. He followed that up with seven goals and 12 points in a dozen playoff games. That was the best season of his career. Boeser scored on 19.6 percent of his shots, easily the best mark of his career, so regression on the goal-scoring front seems inevitable, but that is expected. He had never scored 30 goals in a season before busting out for 40 last season. Boeser has good hands and goal-scorers instincts, but he does not generate a ton of shots and that can cause his goal-scoring to fluctuate, depending on what percentage of his shots beat the goalie. Boeser spent most of last season skating alongside Miller but the third member of their line rotated. Pettersson, Phil Di Giuseppe, Pius Suter, and Nils Hoglander all played more than 200 five-on-five minutes with Boeser. While Boeser figures to remain with Miller, Hoglander might have the inside track to play with them in 2024-2025. No matter who ends up in that spot, Boeser should deliver offence, and it would be reasonable to expect 30 goals and 60 points.

Jake DeBrusk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	28	60	0.73

Vancouver’s big free agent addition in the summer, DeBrusk has filled a complementary role in Boston for much of his career, finishing with between 40 and 50 points in five of his seven NHL seasons. In 2022-2023, DeBrusk set career highs with 27 goals and 50 points in just 64 games, and part of the reason for that success is that he was shooting the puck, finishing with a career-high 2.98 shots on goal per game. He is never going to be an intimidating presence like his father, but DeBrusk did record a career-high 107 hits last season. Goal scoring can be fickle, though. In DeBrusk’s case, he had one goal in his first 16 games last season, had one goal in another 15-game stretch, then had one goal in the last 10 games of the regular season. He then went on to tally five goals and 11 points in 13 playoff games. In Vancouver, the objective should be to get DeBrusk consistently into position to shoot and it looks like he could start the season skating with Elias Pettersson, who is more than capable of distributing the puck. That would give him a great chance to surpass his previous production. With skilled players around him, DeBrusk should have a chance to deliver 25 goals and 50 points in his first season with the Canucks.

Conor Garland

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	29	51	0.62

A small but scrappy winger, Garland has been very consistent, ranging between 39 and 52 points over the past five seasons. He uses his speed to drive play and, in three seasons with the Canucks, Garland’s team has outscored the opposition by 45 goals when he is on the ice during five-on-five play. Under the radar, Garland also had a terrific defensive season in 2023-2024. Among forwards who played at least 500 five-on-five minutes, only eight had a lower rate of shot attempts against per 60 minutes, and six of those eight were Carolina Hurricanes. It was really a superb season, and while Garland has typically had positive possession numbers and strong goal differentials, his 2023-2024 season was dominant, the kind of underlying numbers that a player should strive to achieve, because it makes the eventual on-ice results more sustainable. Full credit to Garland for putting this season together, skating primarily with Teddy Blueger and Dakota Joshua, on a third line that outscored opponents 21-10 during five-on-five play. With that trio still in the fold, the Canucks will likely let them carry on doing their thing. Garland has established what his baseline for production is and he should be able to continue at that level in 2024-2025, picking up 15-20 goals and 45-50 points.

Danton Heinen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	18	17	35	0.45

Signed as a free agent from Boston, Heinen has bounced around quite a bit in his career. It seems that he ends up being an odd fit because he tends to play in the bottom six and does not offer the physicality that many coaches want out of a winger in the bottom six. Even so, Heinen finished last season with 17 goals and 36 points, his second highest totals in both categories. He also had 28 penalty minutes, the first time in his career that he finished a season with more than 16 penalty minutes. Heinen has good hands and does a nice job finding soft spots in the attacking zone. One of the benefits of having a player like Heinen playing lower on the depth chart is that he is entirely capable of moving up when needed, because he has the required skill to skate alongside talented linemates. Last season, in Boston, his most common linemates were David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha, but Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle, Morgan Geekie, and Jake DeBrusk all played more than 150 minutes with Heinen, and three more forwards landed between 100 and 150 minutes. That versatility can help the team but may not set Heinen up for a lofty projection because it means uncertainty about the impact that his role is expected to have on the Canucks season. A reasonable projection for 2024-2025 would see Heinen notch 15 goals and 30-35 points.

Dakota Joshua

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	17	16	33	0.43

As a pending free agent last season, Joshua was starting to draw interest from other NHL teams and why not? The 6-foot-3 forward had already established his physical presence and had more than 200 hits for the second straight season, but he also set career highs with 18 goals and 32 points despite playing in just 63 games. He added another eight points in 13 playoff games, so it was no wonder that the Canucks did what they needed to do in order to keep Joshua. While there are plenty of positives to Joshua’s game, his statistical step forward was heavily dependent on lofty percentages. He scored on 21.4 percent of his shots on goal, after finishing on 13.5 percent of his shots in 121 games over the previous three seasons. He is a big-bodied forward who can be a net front presence, and those players tend to have higher shooting percentages, but he is still unlikely to duplicate 21 percent. He also had an on-ice shooting percentage of 10.1 percent, which is high, but six Canucks forwards had higher on-ice shooting percentages last season – that was part of the reason for Vancouver’s success. If Joshua can continue to have success with Blueger and Garland, that should include 15 goals and 30 points in 2024-2025.

Pius Suter

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	13	14	27	0.36

The Canucks signed Suter last August, so there were modest expectations placed upon him and he probably delivered about what they could have expected, scoring 14 goals and 29 points in 67 games. Suter had a spectacular defensive campaign, with solid defensive metrics, but he also had a .940 on-ice save percentage so the Canucks outscored opponents 39-20 with Suter on the ice. Even with that lopsided goal differential, Suter is generally a low-key player. He is on the smaller side and skates well enough but is not outstanding at any one thing. It’s more a case of him being solid at a variety of parts to his game and he happened to thrive on good fortune last season, with his PDO at 104.8. It does appear that Suter could be on the fourth line this season, though he will likely compete with Blueger for ice time in the bottom half of the Canucks’ depth chart at centre. Suter did have a handful of power play points last season which earns him some credit for his skill level. For the 2024-2025 season, it is fair to expect Suter to contribute 15 goals and 30 points, which is not going to get him much fantasy relevance, but he has had spurts that could make him a viable short-term pick during the season, especially if he lands on the power play.

Nils Hoglander

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	20	35	0.43

There have been ups and downs in the development path of Hoglander, a 23-year-old winger, but last season was a clear step up for him. He finished the season with career highs of 24 goals and 36 points, despite playing just 12:06 per game. How rare was that production? Auston Matthews and Zach Hyman were the only two players with a higher rate of goals per 60 minutes than Hoglander’s 1.58 last season. While Hoglander is not the biggest guy on the ice, he is solidly built and plays an aggressive physical style. He recorded 100 hits last season for the first time in his career and taking that aggressive approach on the forecheck helped to generate more chances. Like many Canucks forwards, Hoglander faces likely regression in 2024-2025 because it is so rare to carry a 104.8 PDO for more than one season. What he has going for him is that he could also add a decent amount of ice time to help offset the likely statistical settling. Hoglander has a chance to play at least in Vancouver’s top six, potentially even on the top line, so he should be looking at the most productive season of his career. Hoglander should be able to top the 20-goal mark again and could put up the first 40-point season of his career.

Daniel Sprong

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	15	20	35	0.45

A rare commodity, Sprong has found a niche as a fourth line scoring winger, finding the net with incredible efficiency last season in Detroit and the year before that in Seattle. Across the past two seasons, there have been 373 forwards who have played at least 1000 five-on-five minutes. Of that group, Sprong ranked ninth with 1.26 goals per 60 minutes. He is in great company, including Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Jared McCann, Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Point, Filip Forsberg, Nils Hoglander, and Carter Verhaeghe are ahead of him, while Zach Hyman is one spot behind. Sprong has always had a dangerous shot, but the battle has been getting him to deliver a well-rounded game that can earn him more significant ice time. The interesting choice facing the Canucks is what to do with Sprong. Do they give him a chance to play more minutes higher up the depth chart? Probably, yes. But they might just be able to roll him out in a fourth line role and still get the kind of production that he has delivered for the past two seasons. It is fair to expect 15-20 goals and 35-40 points from Sprong, with the caveat that if his ice time gets a substantial boost, then his ceiling for offensive production will get higher.

DEFENCE

Quinn Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	75	90	1.13

The reigning Norris Trophy winner exploded for career highs of 17 goals, 75 assists, and 92 points last season. An exceptional skater, Hughes has always been an offensive threat, but his all-around game could be underrated, at least until he was named the league’s best defenceman. Among the 138 defencemen to play at least 1000 five-on-five minutes last season, only four had a lower rate of shot attempts against than Hughes. But Hughes really stands out as a puck moving defender who can turn a quick transition opportunity into an attack. While Hughes has acceleration and great edges that allow him to change direction quickly, the game also appears to have slowed down for him, so that he is processing it better than he did early in his career. Additionally, Hughes was more assertive offensively last season, taking more shots and generating more scoring chances than he ever had before. Essentially, he didn’t arrive at his career high in points by accident. Such is the natural evolution of an elite talent entering the prime of his career. Hughes is an excellent power play quarterback. Over the past three seasons, his 96 power play assists paced all defencemen and his 103 power play points left him tied with Cale Makar. It might be asking a lot for Hughes to duplicate his 2023-2024 production, especially considering he had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1 percent last season, but he is probably not falling off a cliff in terms of productivity, either. He should still have a chance to push a point per game, with an 80-point season provided that he remains healthy, which has been a relative strength of his, not missing more than six games in any season.

Filip Hronek

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	8	37	45	0.56

Hronek had established his credentials as a top pair NHL defencemen in Detroit and yet the Red Wings still moved him to Vancouver before the 2023 trade deadline. Hronek only played four games for the Canucks that season before he needed shoulder surgery, so they didn’t really get a good look at him. Last season, Hronek paired frequently with Hughes and the duo excelled. Obviously, Hughes got the accolades, but Hronek put up a career-best 48 points along with excellent play driving numbers while logging more than 23 minutes per game. Hronek has excellent puck skills, can make a good pass and owns a rocket shot from the point. He also handles the puck well and it makes him a strong complement to Hughes. On this pairing, Hronek is also the one tasked with more stay-at-home responsibilities, and while he is not a devastating physical force, he is comfortable getting involved and has gone over 100 hits in back-to-back seasons. Signed to an eight-year contract, for $58 million, Hronek has long-term security in Vancouver and as the partner to the Norris Trophy winner, he is poised to be a valuable piece on the Vancouver blueline for years. So long as he stays healthy, Hronek should be able to contribute 45 points to the Vancouver attack in 2024-2025.

Tyler Myers

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	4	21	25	0.32

For many years, Myers took criticism for all of the things that he wasn’t, as he was not an effective play-driving defenceman making him big money, but the value in Myers now is based on a more reasonable contract that brings more reasonable expectations. At 6-foot-8, Myers is not a crushing physical presence, but skates extraordinarily well for a player of that size. That can get short-circuited by poor decision making at times and that’s why Myers had brought more appeal in a secondary role. He chipped in 29 points last season, his highest total since 2018-2019 and he did that while starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Now 34-years-old, Myers has finally reached the point of lower expectations. He played 18:57 per game in 2023-2024, the lowest average time on ice of his career, and it was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 his and 100 blocked shots in the same season. That does not put Myers in a very valuable place for fantasy managers but given the other alternatives in Vancouver, Myers picking up 20-25 points with triple digit hits and blocked shots might hold a little appeal in deep leagues.

GOAL

Thatcher Demko

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
56	33	16	6	4	0.915	2.51

It only took them the better part of a decade, but Canada's westernmost NHL club has finally seemed to have arrived - and leading the charge is none other than Thatcher Demko, who spent the 2023-24 season reminding the league that he belongs in the conversation with the Connor Hellebuycks and the Jeremy Swaymans, the Igor Shesterkins and the Andrei Vasilevskiys. His 0.918 unadjusted save percentage was bested only by Hellebuyck's own 0.921 among starters with more than 30 games last year, and his five shutouts helped a tumultuous Vancouver club finally start to find some even footing.

The real concern for Vancouver remains their number two spot; for yet another year they failed to see any other netminder post a save percentage topping the 0.900 threshold at the NHL level, and Demko remains a bit of a liability in the injury department. It's likely that their best option behind Demko is up-and-comer Arturs Silovs, but he has yet to prove himself at the NHL level and can suffer from bouts of inconsistent play and bad bounce-backs from tough goals against. That leaves Vancouver's goaltending in a position where it still doesn't inspire as much confidence as it deserves, even with a Vezina candidate manning the pipes the majority of the time. If Silovs can break onto the scene, though, and help stabilize the workload for Demko, the Canucks could become the most formidable team in the Pacific.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Lafreniere, Doan, Garland, Joshua, Zellweger, Cirelli, Mantha plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 05 Apr 2024 16:10:31 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 22: New York Rangers left wing Alexis Lafreniere (13) skates with the puck during a game between the against the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils on February 22, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, with the NHL season winding down and fantasy titles on the line, a look at Alexis Lafreniere, Josh Doan, Conor Garland, Olen Zellweger, Anthony Cirelli and much, much more!

#1 There are challenges that come with being the first overall pick in the Draft and one of those is that if a player is not immediately successful, like Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid, there is a rush to describe the player as a bust and worry about what that player could possibly become. Throughout his first three seasons, Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere was a middle six winger who could score a bit, but not nearly enough to warrant being the first pick overall in 2020. In his fourth season, the 22-year-old has emerged as the kind of player who may not be Matthews or McDavid, but at least has the production to warrant a first-line role. He has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 31 shots on goal in his past 11 games and Lafreniere has scored 24 of his 26 goals at even strength. His 24 even-strength goals is tied with Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston for 17th and puts Lafreniere ahead of the likes of Kirill Kaprizov, Sebastian Aho, J.T. Miller, Elias Petttersson, Sam Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl, and McDavid.

#2 It is something out of a fairytale – maybe an obscure fairytale, but a fairytale nonetheless – for the son of a franchise legend to grow up in Arizona, play college hockey at Arizona State and then land in the NHL with the Coyotes. Josh Doan has also contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in his first four games, which might make him worth a flier if you need instant offence at this late stage of the season. His shot rate is intriguing and while Doan does not have the same physical presence as his father Shane, the younger Doan did have 46 points (26 G, 20 A) in 62 AHL games to earn his late season promotion to The Show.

#3 Vancouver Canucks winger Conor Garland has been a quality contributor in a supporting role, especially late in the season. In his past dozen games, Garland has chipped in 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 34 shots on goal. He has hit 40 points for a third consecutive season in Vancouver, though his ice time has dropped to 14:19 per game, his lowest average time on ice since 2019-2020. In addition to his place on Vancouver’s top power play unit, Garland is skating on the Canucks’ second line, with J.T. Miller and Dakota Joshua. While Miller has obvious fantasy appeal, after years of high-level production, Joshua is showing that he can be more than a depth forward. He has missed time due to injury, but Joshua does have five points (3 G, 2 A) while playing more than 16 minutes per game in his past five games.

#4 The Anaheim Ducks have a strong crop of young defencemen in the organization and they are giving 20-year-old Olen Zellweger a good look down the stretch. He has contributed five points (1 G, 4 A) in his past six games, scoring his first NHL goal in the process. This is the start of what should be a productive career. Zellweger had 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 AHL games, a monster of a first pro season, to earn his shot with the Ducks.

#5 Although he is known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli can contribute offensively, too. It certainly helps that he has Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel on his wings. Cirelli has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 43 points on the season, one off his career high, set in 2019-2020.

#6 After he was acquired from the Washington Capitals, towering winger Anthony Mantha managed a single point, a goal, with eight shots on goal in his first seven games for the Vegas Golden Knights. He has found his footing since that slow start, however, putting up seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 11 shots on goal in the past six games. Mantha fulfills a supporting role in Vegas, skating on a line with William Karlsson and Pavel Dorofeyev.

#7 When the Calgary Flames acquired winger Andrei Kuzmenko from the Vancouver Canucks earlier in the season, the hope was that the Flames could get Kuzmenko back to the form that saw him score 39 goals as a rookie last season. It has not been the smoothest process. He had eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his first 12 games for the Flames, followed by a six-game drought with zero points. He has seen his ice time tick up recently, skating on a line with Nazem Kadri and rookie Martin Pospisil, and has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past three games.

#8 A valuable piayer in Vegas’ Stanley Cup run last season, Ivan Barbashev has had some ups and downs during this regular season. He does seem to be heating up, though, with six points (4 G, 2 A) in his past six games. He is one of 21 forwards to record at least 160 hits in each of the past two seasons and, of those 21, is one of just four to have produced more than 40 points in each of the past two seasons. Along with Barashev, that group includes Brady Tkachuk, J.T. Miller, and Vincent Trocheck.

#9 It has been a tale of two seasons for New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier, who had just 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 98 shots on goal in 34 games going into the All-Star break. Since then, Meier has racked up 30 points (16 G, 14 A) with 90 shots on goal in 29 games. Despite his slow start it is the third straight season in which Meier has tallied at least 25 goals.

#10 Injuries have limited Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen to just 14 starts this season, but he has 11 wins and a .927 save percentage in those games. Among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games, the only one with a higher save percentage is Colorado’s Justus Annunen (.930).

#11 The assists may be few and far between, but in his past 16 games, Anaheim Ducks left winger Alex Killorn has buried nine goals (with one assist). This has not been a banner season for Killorn, who has 33 points (17 G, 16 A) in 57 games in his first campaign with the Ducks. He is skating with rookie Leo Carlsson and veteran winger Troy Terry, giving him a good chance to finish the season on the right note.

#12 Arizona Coyotes rookie Logan Cooley has had a strong rookie season, albeit in relative obscurity. With nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past nine games, including his first hat trick, Cooley now ranks second among rookie forwards with 39 points (17 G, 22 A), leaving him behind only Connor Bedard. Cooley is skating on a line with Lawson Crouse and Dylan Guenther.

#13 While Cooley is the second highest scoring rookie forward, the second highest scoring rookie overall is New Jersey Devils defenceman Luke Hughes. He has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past eight games to give him 43 points (9 G, 34 A) in 76 games. In the past decade, the list of rookie defencemen to have more than 43 points is: Moritz Seider, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Will Butcher, Zach Werenski, and Shayne Gostisbehere. Aside from Butcher, that is rather strong company that Hughes is keeping.

#14 There may be a correlation between Fabian Zetterlund playing more than 18 minutes per game and the San Jose Sharks getting buried on a nightly basis, but the 24-year-old winger is establishing his credentials as an NHL player. Over the past month, he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 42 shots on goal in 15 games. He is skating on San Jose’s top line with Klim Kostin and Mikael Granlund. Zetterlund isn’t the only Sharks player getting plenty of reps for his development this season. William Eklund, the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft, has similarly averaged more than 18 minutes per game and is finishing with a flourish, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games.

#15 If fantasy managers need a late scoring boost, perhaps Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi is a player to target. He didn’t produce any points in his first two games back in the lineup following a month-long absence due to an upper-body injury then an enlarged spleen, but then he erupted for a hat trick, with nine shots on goal, in Thursday’s win over Calgary. The 24-year-old has produced 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in 41 games in his first season for the Jets and while the injuries seem to be part of the package, there is no denying his ability to contribute when he is in the lineup.

#16 Buffalo Sabres left winger Jeff Skinner reached the 1,000-game milestone for his career, a tremendous accomplishment. He is also fading late in the season. Since scoring a hat trick in Seattle on March 18, Skinner has zero points and 15 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing 13 minutes per game and is currently skating on a line with Peyton Krebs and Lukas Rousek, which is not exactly the same as riding shotgun with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. This is the tenth season in which Skinner has scored at least 20 goals, and he has 357 goals in his career, but he may be one to avoid in the final few weeks of this campaign.

#17 While there has been plenty of focus in Philadelphia on the declining production, and healthy scratches, of captain Sean Couturier, who has just one assist and 18 shots on goal in his past 15 games, he is not the only Flyers forward whose offensive well has run dry. Joel Farabee has a career-high 21 goals and 49 points this season but has zero points in his past six games and has been dropped to the fourth line.

#18 Since the March 8 trade deadline, the leading scorer in terms of points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play is Mark Jankowski of the Nashville Predators, who has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past 11 games. Jankowski spent most of the season in the American Hockey League, where the 29-year-old put up 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 40 games for Milwaukee, earning another look in the NHL. Jankowski’s 14 points in 26 games for the Predators is his most in an NHL season since 2018-2019. The rest of the five-on-five points per 60 leaders since the trade deadline (minimum 50 minutes): Josh Doan (4.52), Pavel Zacha (4.47), Auston Matthews (4.41), David Pastrnak (4.33), Connor McDavid (4.18), Artemi Panarin (4.07), John Tavares (3.91), Mattias Ekholm (3.91), and Nikita Kucherov (3.88). That is a fascinating mix of Hart Trophy candidates along with a rookie, Doan, and complementary players like Zacha, Ekholm, and Tavares.

#19 The most productive lines during five-on-five play this season (minimum 100 minutes), per Evolving Hockey: Owen Tippett-Morgan Frost-Travis Konecny (7.36 GF/60), Alex DeBrincat-Dylan Larkin-Patrick Kane (6.14), Danton Heinen-Pavel Zacha-David Pastrnak (6.06), J.T. Miller-Elias Pettersson-Brock Boeser (5.72), Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl (5.50), Warren Foegele-Leon Draisaitil-Ryan McLeod (5.27), Nikolaj Ehlers-Mark Scheifele-Gabriel Vilardi (5.04), Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Wyatt Johnston (4.95), J.J. Peterka-Dylan Cozens-Jack Quinn (4.91), and Jonathan Marchessault-Nicolas Roy-Ivan Barbashev (4.89). While there are some names that one might expect in that group, there are plenty of others there that are not exactly prime fantasy hockey draft picks, so offense can come from many places, especially in short spurts if a line is only together for a few weeks.

#20 Also per Evolving Hockey, here are the leaders in individual expected goals during five-on-four play (minimum 50 minutes), essentially, who is being put in position to score on the power play? Joel Eriksson Ek (4.35), Zach Hyman (4.10), John Tavares (3.97), Kyle Palmieri (3.76), Chris Kreider (3.69), Barrett Hayton (3.67), Gabriel Vilardi (3.46), Matthew Tkachuk (3.42), Sam Reinhart (3.38), and Shine Pinto (3.30). Columbus’ Alexander Nylander has only played 36 minutes at five-on-four, but has 4.50 ixG in that time, so he is getting great opportunities to score and while he has 10 goals in 18 games for Columbus, only two of those goals have been on the power play.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – January 8th to 14th, 2024 – Race for Hart Trophy a tight one at halfway point + Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 06 Jan 2024 16:28:17 +0000

Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

We’re approaching the halfway point of the season and if I had to pick who will win the Hart Trophy at this stage, I would have a hard time doing so. There are several major candidates in the running.

Nikita Kucherov was an afterthought in last year’s voting despite finishing with 113 points in 82 contests, but he’s making a strong pitch this season with 27 goals and 64 points through 39 games. Although Tampa Bay has several other stars, Kucherov has also been instrumental to the Lightning’s offense, leading the team’s scoring race by 24 points. However, Tampa Bay with its 18-16-5 record is also not a safe bet to make the playoffs and voters tend to penalize players on teams that fall short of the postseason, so that might end up holding Kucherov back.

Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) Photo by Andrew Bershaw /Icon_Sportswire)

Instead, Nathan MacKinnon, who has 22 goals and 64 points in 39 appearances, is likely the favorite. MacKinnon is also the hotter of the two with 14 goals and 33 points over his last 15 contests. The 28-year-old has been a Hart Trophy finalist three times before (2018, 2020, 2021) and finished fifth in voting last campaign. After so many close calls, this might finally be his year.

However, the reigning Hart Trophy winner, Connor McDavid, might still challenge him. McDavid’s totals of 14 goals and 53 points in 33 games are a step behind Kucherov and MacKinnon, but the Oilers superstar was held back by a slow, injury-riddled start to the campaign. From Nov. 13 onward, McDavid has 12 goals and 43 points in 22 appearances, so he might still be able to close the gap. Voters might also give him extra credit for the Oilers’ revival following their 2-9-1 start to the campaign, provided Edmonton can keep climbing and make the playoffs.

Auston Matthews might also stay in the conversation. He just has 45 points through 35 games, but he has scored a league-leading 30 goals. His 60 goals in 2021-22 was enough to earn him the Hart Trophy that year and Matthews is a contender to reach that milestone again this year.

One final longer-shot contender is Quinn Hughes. The defenseman has 10 goals and 46 points through 38 contests. He ranks 10th in the scoring race, which is pretty good for a blueliner, but he’d probably need to do even better if he wants to claim the Hart Trophy. Blueliners rarely win the award -- the last was Chris Pronger in 2000.

Dallas Stars – MON @ MIN, WED VS MIN, FRI VS NSH, SAT @ CHI (BTB)

Dallas has a home-and-home series in Minnesota on Monday and versus the Wild on Wednesday. Minnesota had a strong run from Nov. 28-Dec. 27 with an 11-3-0 record, but the Wild have run into injury issues, which has led to them faltering, so Dallas has a chance here to take both contests. Afterward, Dallas will host the Predators on Friday before traveling to face the lowly Blackhawks on Saturday.

Jake Oettinger hasn’t played since Dec. 15 because of a lower-body injury, which has led to the Stars leaning heavily on Scott Wedgewood with mixed results. Wedgewood is 6-2-2 with a 3.01 GAA and an .891 save percentage in 10 contests since Oettinger got hurt. Oettinger is day-to-day, so he might return by the start of the week. If that’s the case, then he’ll likely get into three of Dallas’ four matches with Wedgewood picking up either Friday’s game versus Nashville or Saturday against Chicago.

The status of Miro Heiskanen is murkier. He suffered a lower-body injury Thursday after running into Wedgewood and there was no update on his status at the time of writing. The 24-year-old defenseman averages 25:03 of ice time, including 3:10 with the man advantage, so to say he’s an important part of the Stars’ blue line would be an understatement.

If Heiskanen misses time, then Nils Lundkvist will likely play regularly after being a healthy scratch in five of Dallas’ last eight contests. Lundkvist would likely only be on the third pairing, but he should also see time on the second power-play unit, so he might make some offensive contributions. The 23-year-old defenseman has 10 assists in 27 appearances in 2023-24.

Thomas Harley would likely also see a boost in ice time and might even fill in for Heiskanen on the top power-play unit. Harley has been solid offensively this year with nine goals and 17 points in 34 contests this season.

Regardless of what happens with Heiskanen’s injury, Dallas should continue to stay competitive thanks to its strong forward corps. Lately, Mason Marchment has highlighted that group with three goals and eight points over his last three contests, bringing him up to 13 goals and 29 points in 37 outings.

Minnesota Wild – MON VS DAL, WED @ DAL, FRI VS PHI, SAT VS ARI (BTB)

As noted above, Minnesota will start the week with a game in Dallas on Monday and then versus the Stars on Wednesday. That will likely be a tough series for the Wild, but afterward, they have two home games against more middling adversaries in the Flyers on Friday and the Coyotes on Saturday. It’s still not an easy set for the Wild, but with it being four contests in one week, it’s good enough to highlight.

Dallas’ injury issues are minor in comparison to Minnesota’s. The Wild are missing starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson, a pair of top-four defensemen in Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon and top-six forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. To make matters worse, it wouldn’t be surprising if none of them returned next week.

Marc-Andre Fleury will probably be relied upon in goal, but if Gustavsson doesn’t return in time for the back-to-back set on Friday and Saturday, then Zane McIntyre will likely get into one of those contests. McIntyre has a 3.54 GAA and an .884 save percentage in 12 games with AHL Iowa this season, though, so it’s probably better to avoid him, even if you need extra starts.

A better short-term pickup from Minnesota would be Nicolas Petan, who has two assists in three games since being recalled from Iowa on Sunday. With the Wild missing key players, Petan is serving in a middle-six capacity and seeing some power-play ice time. Although the 28-year-old isn’t likely to remain with Minnesota after the team starts getting its forwards back, Petan is a decent offensive force when given the opportunity, and he’s excelled in the minors with 10 goals and 28 points in 26 contests this campaign.

Montreal Canadiens – WED @ PHI, THU VS SJS (BTB), SAT VS EDM

Montreal will play just three games next week, but they’ll start against the slumping Flyers in Philadelphia on Wednesday and then host the lowly Sharks on Thursday. The Canadiens will conclude the week by hosting the Oilers.

The Canadiens have dropped four of their last five games, but not everyone on the team is struggling. Nick Suzuki has continued to excel, providing two goals and four points over his last four appearances, elevating him to 12 goals and 34 points in 38 contests this season. The 24-year-old hasn’t developed into a superstar, but he’s a solid top-line forward who is likely to surpass the 60-point mark for the third straight season.

By contrast, Juraj Slafkovsky still has lots of growing to do. The 19-year-old has four goals and 14 points in 38 contests this season. On the one hand, that’s at least a mild improvement over his 10 points in 39 games in 2022-23, but that’s a smaller jump than you’d hope for from the 2022 No. 1 overall pick, especially given that he’s averaging 16:24 of ice time this season, up from 12:13 in 2022-23, so he doesn’t even have the excuse of limited opportunities.

However, Slafkovsky has shown life recently, providing two goals and six points over his last seven contests, so perhaps he’s setting the stage for a stronger second half. He’s worth gambling on next week if he’s available in your league, especially given the quality of Montreal’s upcoming competition.

New York Rangers – MON VS VAN, THU @STL, SAT @ WAS, SUN VS WAS (BTB)

The Rangers have a full four-game set next week. They’ll get what should be their toughest matchup out of the way first when they host the Canucks on Monday. Afterward, the Rangers have a two-game road trip with contests in St. Louis on Thursday and Washington on Saturday, and they’ll finish the week with a home game versus the Capitals.

New York has continued to be led by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, who have 11 and 12 points, respectively, over the Rangers’ last eight games. Panarin is having an especially remarkable season with 24 goals and 53 points in 37 outings. For all the 32-year-old’s accomplishments, he’s never reached the century mark in a single season, but that’s set to change this year if he stays healthy.

Alexis Lafreniere is a less consistent contributor but has done well lately, providing two goals and seven points over his last eight contests. That’s pushed him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 37 appearances in 2023-24 as he also chases career highs -- albeit less impressive ones than Panarin. Lafreniere’s 39 points in 81 contests from 2022-23 presently stand as his personal best.

Fantasy managers should also keep an eye on Kaapo Kakko (lower body), who started practicing in a non-contact capacity Thursday. He might not return next week, but he’s making progress. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs once healthy. Kakko had a respectable 18 goals and 40 points in 82 contests last year. However, he was off to a rough start in 2023-24 with two goals and three points in 20 outings. While getting hurt is never a good thing, the silver lining is it will allow him to start fresh once he’s healthy.

Philadelphia Flyers – MON VS PIT, WED VS MTL, FRI @ MIN, SAT @ WPG (BTB)

Philadelphia will host the rival Penguins on Monday and remain at home for the Penguins on Wednesday. The Flyers will then travel to Minnesota on Friday and Winnipeg on Saturday. Of that set, the Jets are the only adversary occupying a playoff position.

Cam Atkinson and Morgan Frost were both healthy scratches Thursday. Atkinson is a particularly interesting case. He started the campaign with eight goals and 12 points in 15 appearances, but he has just six points (all assists) over his last 22 outings. Maybe having a game to reset is what he needs. Atkinson is likely to draw back into the lineup soon and will probably serve in a top-six capacity while also being on the first power-play unit.

One player who doesn’t need time off is Travis Konecny. The 26-year-old forward is on a six-game scoring streak in which he’s contributed four goals and nine points. Konecny is up to 20 goals and 35 points in 38 outings this year and that’s despite getting just three points with the man advantage. He has a spot on the top power-play unit, so his offense on special teams might increase in the second half of the year.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS SJS, THU @ NYI, SAT VS COL, SUN VS DET

The Maple Leafs will have three home games next week against the Sharks on Tuesday, the Avalanche on Saturday and the Red Wings on Sunday. They also have a one-game road trip against the Islanders on Thursday.

With Joseph Woll (ankle) still hurt and Ilya Samsonov struggling to the point where he’s been sent to AHL Toronto, 22-year-old rookie Dennis Hildeby is with the team. Rather than allow him to make his NHL debut Wednesday versus Anaheim, the Maple Leafs opted to use Martin Jones in both halves of their back-to-back. That paid off, though, with Jones saving 58 of 59 shots over those two outings.

Jones has been stunning with Toronto, posting a 6-3-0 record, 2.21 GAA and .930 save percentage in 10 contests. I’m hesitant to get too excited about him, though. Jones has had an interesting career, but it’s involved a lot of rough patches -- there's a reason he went unclaimed on waivers back in October, allowing him to start the season in the minors -- and what we’re seeing now might be more of a hot streak than a resurgence. Regardless, Jones is expected to continue to be leaned on heavily during Woll’s absence.

I would still expect Hildeby to make at least one start next week, likely against Colorado on Saturday or Detroit on Sunday. It seems like a waste to summon the prospect if all he’s going to do is practice with the team and warm the bench. If that was the extent of the assignment, the Maple Leafs could have brought up Keith Petruzzelli from the Marlies instead, allowing Hildeby to continue to get work uninterrupted.

That aside, this might be another good week for Max Domi, who has four assists over his last four games. He’s been a steady presence lately, supplying three goals and 11 points over his last 15 contests to provide the Maple Leafs with some scoring depth.

Vancouver Canucks – MON @ NYR, TUE @ NYI (BTB), THU @ PIT, SAT @ BUF

Vancouver arguably has the most borderline schedule to be highlighted on this list. On the one hand, the Canucks will play four games, which is always desirable for getting the most out of players in fantasy formats, but the downside is they’ll be traveling for the full duration with games against the Rangers on Monday, the Islanders on Tuesday, the Penguins on Thursday and the Sabres on Saturday.

If Pius Suter is still available in your league, he’s worthy of selection. The 27-year-old has just 11 points in 24 contests this season, but over his last seven appearances, he’s supplied four goals and seven points. He has a position on Vancouver’s second line and second power-play unit, so while he’s not going to continue to produce at a point per game in the long run, he might be good for 25-30 points over Vancouver’s final 45 contests if he maintains his current role.

Teddy Blueger is another red-hot member of the Canucks, providing three goals and 10 points over his last nine outings. I don’t expect the 29-year-old’s offensive run to last much longer, though. He’s never recorded more than 28 points in a single season and doesn’t have a stable role on the power play, so if you’ve been enjoying Blueger’s recent success, just be prepared to move on without much hesitation when he shows signs of faltering.

Similarly, I’m not confident the good times will last much longer for Dakota Joshua, who has five goals and nine points over his last nine contests. The silver lining with Joshua is he’s a great source of hits with 113 in 37 appearances this season, and he should continue to help in that regard even after his offense fizzles out.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS CHI, SAT VS PHI

In contrast to Vancouver, the Jets will play in just three games, but they’re all home games and feature weak to middling adversaries. Winnipeg will host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Flyers on Saturday.

The quality of Winnipeg’s opponents might allow Morgan Barron to continue his hot stretch after providing three goals and five points over his last five contests. Just keep in mind that Barron is serving primarily as a fourth liner, so he’s worth considering only as a short-term pickup.

Vladislav Namestnikov has a substantially bigger role with the Jets, averaging 15:10 of ice time, including 1:24 with the man advantage. He’s up to four goals and 20 points in 34 contests this season and has been especially effective recently, supplying a goal and five points over his last four outings.

Of course, the Jets’ MVP is still goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. He’s won his last three starts while saving 93 of 98 shots (.949 save percentage), giving him a 19-6-3 record, 2.28 GAA and .921 save percentage in 28 outings this year. Hellebuyck might start in all three games this week, and he should continue to excel.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 1st, 2024 to January 6th) – The Penguins complicated Guentzel situation – Flames, Hawks, Rangers, Flyers, Leafs, Canucks, Capitals, Jets to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 30 Dec 2023 16:05:17 +0000

Pittsburgh Penguins Left Wing Jake Guentzel (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

The Penguins are a weird team. In their last five games, they’ve earned a 7-0 victory and suffered a 7-0 defeat. They have the seventh best xGoals Differential/60 at 0.33 and their actual differential is nothing to scoff at either at plus-10 goals, but they’re currently sitting outside of a playoff spot with a 16-13-4 record. No other team has a double-digit differential in the positives without being in a position to make the postseason.

That 7-0 loss aside, the Penguins’ main issue is holding it together when things are close. Pittsburgh is just 5-5-4 in one-goal games and 4-5 in contests decided by two goals. To put that into perspective, Washington, which has a three-point lead on Pittsburgh in the standings despite a minus-13 goal differential, is 10-1-5 in one-goal games.

So, have the Penguins just been unlucky or do they lack that extra something that allows certain teams to perform in clutch situations? The latter would be particularly troubling given that Pittsburgh has been set up for one last playoff push before age catches up to Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

Complicating this conversation is Jake Guentzel’s contract situation. He’s playing out the final season of his team-friendly five-year, $30 million contract. The 29-year-old, who has surpassed each of the 35-goal and 70-point milestones three times and might do so again this campaign is in line for a big payday. At the same time, I have to wonder if there’s a bit of hesitation on Guentzel’s part to re-sign with Pittsburgh.

If Pittsburgh is struggling to even make the playoffs now when their aged core is still relatively effective, what will the situation be like in a couple of years? Most likely, by that point, the Penguins will be paying the toll for the win-now moves they’ve made. If Guentzel signs an eight-year deal with Pittsburgh, a lot of that time might be as a member of a rebuilding squad. Is that a problem for him? I don’t know, but it’s a potential wrinkle.

Either way, all isn’t lost for the Penguins in the short term. We’ve seen signs that this team still has life. They just need to be able to find that little extra they too often lack.

Calgary Flames – TUE @ MIN, THU @ NSH, SAT@ PHI, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Flames will be on the road next week, but they do have a packed schedule with games in Minnesota on Tuesday, Nashville on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Chicago on Sunday. None of those adversaries have been especially good this year, though the Wild are one to watch out for after winning 11 of their last 14, bringing them up to 16-13-4.

As a team, Calgary can’t claim to be nearly as hot as Minnesota, but the Flames have seen some superb individual performances recently. Yegor Sharangovich is chief among them, supplying six goals and 11 points over his last 10 contests. He got off to such a slow start this year with two goals and five points through 16 games, but that’s in no small part because he was averaging just 13:42 of ice time, including 0:39 on the power play. By contrast, he’s averaged 20:00 over his last 10 appearances, including 3:23 with the man advantage. If he maintains his present role, which seems probable, then it’s reasonable to pencil the 25-year-old in for 30-40 points over Calgary’s final 47 contests.

Blake Coleman is another player taking advantage of an increased role, though to a lesser degree. He had two goals and three points through 11 games while averaging 15:02 of ice time -- almost none of that on the power play. He’s ballooned to 17:23 per game over his last 10 outings and has rewarded Calgary by contributing six goals and 11 points over that stretch. What’s most encouraging is the Flames have experimented with using him on the power play recently -- he's averaged 2:31 with the man advantage over the past six games -- and while that’s only resulted in one point (a goal) thus far, that position does increase his upside.

Unfortunately for the Flames, things are getting progressively worse for their most expensive player. Jonathan Huberdeau was a massive disappointment last year when he dropped from 115 points to 55, and he’s on pace to do even worse in 2023-24 with just four goals and 15 points through 34 contests. Huberdeau is marred in a 12-game scoring drought. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that he’s still serving in a top-six role, so the 30-year-old is at least being put in a position to rebound. Whether he’ll take advantage of it remains to be seen, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to remain optimistic.

Chicago Blackhawks – TUE @ NSH, THU @ NYR, FRI @ NJD (BTB), SUN VS CGY

The Blackhawks will start the week with road games against the Predators on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Devils on Friday before hosting the Flames on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule but having a full four-game schedule is handy, so it’s worth highlighting the Blackhawks.

In particular, it’s worth keeping Petr Mrazek in mind if you’re looking for starts. With an 8-11-0 record, 3.09 GAA and .907 save percentage in 21 contests, he hasn’t exactly wowed this year, but Mrazek has been quietly effective lately, posting a 2.21 GAA and a .933 save percentage over his last eight appearances. With Arvid Soderblom struggling (0-5-1, 4.71 GAA and .848 save percentage over his past six outings), Mrazek is likely to start in three of the four games next week.

Philipp Kurashev will also be looking to stay hot after supplying a goal and six points over his last seven appearances, including three helpers over his past two games. It helps that he’s playing alongside Connor Bedard, who has factored into 10 of Kurashev’s last 11 points.

Speaking of Bedard, he’s on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s collected three goals and eight points. That gives the 18-year-old rookie 13 goals and 30 points through 33 outings.

New York Rangers – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CHI, SAT @ MTL

The Rangers have just three contests next week, but they’re winnable games. They’ll start by hosting Carolina on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday before playing in Montreal on Saturday. The Hurricanes are in a playoff spot, but the Rangers’ other adversaries aren’t.

It’ll give Mika Zibanejad to extend his amazing run. He’s recorded at least a point in eight straight games and 16 of his last 17 outings. He had a slump from Nov. 2-20 in which he was limited to an assist over seven outings, but from Nov. 22 onward, Zibanejad ranks fourth in the league with 25 points (11 goals) over 17 appearances.

Of course, the Rangers expected Zibanejad to respond going into the campaign, but what they were going to get out of the 37-year-old Blake Wheeler was less certain. After inking a one-year, $1.1 million deal over the summer following his buyout, Wheeler was initially a nonfactor, collecting just two goals and six points through 26 contests this season. Something’s clicked recently, though, allowing him to supply three goals and eight points over his last seven outings.

New York’s schedule is spread out enough that Igor Shesterkin might start in all three games, but Jonathan Quick has been seeing action around once every three contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Rangers use him during this stretch. Keep an eye out for that because Quick’s been a fantastic backup this year with a 9-1-1 record, 2.27 GAA and .920 save percentage in 12 outings.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ EDM, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS CGY

The Flyers will start the week with a challenging matchup in Edmonton on Tuesday, but then they have a pair of home games against the 11-18-7 Blue Jackets on Thursday and the 14-16-5 Flames on Saturday.

Those latter two contests should help Joel Farabee in his quest to surpass his career high of 39 points, which he set last year. The 23-year-old has made huge strides in 2023-24 with 12 goals and 24 points in 34 outings. He’s been particularly effective lately, providing a goal and four points over his past two outings.

Farabee’s linemate, Bobby Brink, is on a bit of a roll too, recording a point in each of his last three contests. The 22-year-old rookie is up to six goals and 17 points in 29 appearances. It’s not enough to put him in the conversation for the Calder Trophy, but it’s a solid start to what could be a good career. His playing time is somewhat modest at 14:50 per contest, which limits his production, but Brink is at least worth considering as a short-term pickup while he’s hot.

Owen Tippett isn’t getting a ton of playing time either -- just 15:15 per game -- but he has made the most of what he’s been given with 12 goals and 21 points through 33 outings. The 24-year-old has been especially productive recently, supplying at least a point in four straight outings and six of his last eight appearances.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ LAK, WED @ ANA (BTB), SAT @ SJS

The Maple Leafs will play in Los Angeles on Tuesday and Anaheim on Wednesday before hosting the Sharks on Saturday. While the Kings are a top-tier team, the Ducks and the Sharks sit in the NHL’s basement and rank 22nd and 32nd, respectively, in terms of goals allowed per game.

It’ll be an opportunity for Auston Matthews to pad his numbers. The superstar forward has 28 goals in 30 contests, including a stunning 14 tallies over his last 10 appearances. William Nylander can’t match Matthews in terms of goals, but he’s still having an amazing campaign in his own right with 16 markers and 45 points through 31 contests. Nylander is riding a 12-game scoring streak during which he’s provided four goals and 19 points -- and that’s on top of his season-opening 17-game point streak.

The rest of the Maple Leafs haven’t been nearly as impressive recently, though of course Mitchell Marner and John Tavares are still star forwards. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Matthew Knies have their moments too. That trio of supporting forwards hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Toronto might like, but against competition like Anaheim and San Jose, any one of them is capable of excelling.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS OTT, THU @ STL, SAT @ NJD

Vancouver leads the league with 3.78 goals per game and its offense is likely to keep rolling given the state of its upcoming competition. The Canucks will host the Senators (28th defensively with 3.50 goals allowed per game) on Tuesday, play in St. Louis (19th, 3.26) on Thursday and conclude the week with a contest in New Jersey (29th, 3.55) on Saturday.

It might be a good time to pick up Teddy Blueger if he’s still available. That’s a sentence that hasn’t been written much over the course of the 29-year-old’s career -- after all, his career high in points stands at just 28 -- but he’s riding a seven-game point streak in which he’s supplied three goals and nine points.

Dakota Joshua is another middle-six forward who has caught fire with five goals and eight points over his last seven outings. Don’t expect him to keep this up -- the 27-year-old had just 23 points in 79 appearances last season -- but he’s a nice short-term option while he’s hot and Vancouver’s opponents feature leaky goaltending.

Of course, there are also the usual suspects too. Defenseman Quinn Hughes is having an amazing campaign with 10 goals and 45 points in 36 contests and is likely to take full advantage of the Canucks’ favorable upcoming schedule.

Washington Capitals – TUE @ PIT, WED VS NJD (BTB), FRI VS CAR, SUN VS LAK

The Capitals will start the week by visiting their main rival in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. From there, Washington will host the Devils on Wednesday, the Hurricanes on Friday, and the Kings on Sunday.

Washington has struggled offensively this year, averaging only 2.34 goals per game, and the Capitals have scored three or fewer goals in each of their last seven contests, so things don’t seem to be getting any better. Aliaksei Protas is one of the few forwards doing well recently. He’s on a four-game scoring streak and has six helpers over his last seven outings.

Anthony Mantha is also surging with four goals over his last three outings. That’s pushed him up to 10 markers through 32 contests, making him the third Capitals player to reach double digits in goals this year.

Charlie Lindgren and Darcy Kuemper might evenly split next week’s four-game set. Kuemper has been a mixed bag this campaign, but Lindgren has excelled with a 2.29 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 14 contests. He’s allowed just three goals on 56 shots (.946 save percentage) over his last two starts.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE VS TBL, THU @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, SUN @ ARI

The Jets have a full schedule of four games next week, though all those contests will be on the road. They’ll face the Lightning on Tuesday, the Sharks on Thursday, the Ducks on Friday and the Coyotes on Sunday. That set between San Jose and Anaheim in particular should be good for the Jets.

Winnipeg is still without Kyle Connor, who hasn’t played since Dec. 10 because of a knee injury. What partially compensates for that is that the Jets got Gabriel Vilardi back from a knee injury Nov. 30. It took him a few games to shake off the rust, but he has seven goals and 13 points over his last eight contests.

Nikolaj Ehlers has also stepped up during Connor’s absence. He averaged 15:47 of ice time before Connor’s injury and in the seven games Winnipeg has been without the star forward, Ehlers has supplied four goals and 10 points while logging 18:21 per contest.

Laurent Brossoit will probably start against either Anaheim or San Jose during that back-to-back set, so the Jets’ backup goaltender is slated to have a favorable matchup. Brossoit’s done well this year with a 2.49 GAA and a .911 save percentage in eight contests.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – VANCOUVER CANUCKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Player Profiles + Team Preview – Scott Cullen, Goaltending – Catherine Silverman — Tue, 10 Oct 2023 14:34:00 +0000

Review: The Canucks limped to an 18-25-3 record (.424 points percentage) under Bruce Boudreau before replacing him behind the bench with Rick Tocchet. They were better under the new coach, going 20-12-4 (.611), though the Canucks still finished a dozen points out of a playoff spot. The Canucks struggled to control play, ranking 24^th with 47.0% of shot attempts and 25^th with 46.5% of expected goals during score-and-venue-adjusted five-on-five play. That is obviously not a winning formula, especially when it gets paired with abysmal penalty killing. During four-on-five play, the Canucks ranked 27^th in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 30^th in actual goals against per 60. Even a team with a top ten power play couldn’t overcome those problems.

What’s Changed? After buying out Oliver Ekman-Larsson, not giving Ethan Bear a qualifying offer after he was injured at the World Championships, and losing Kyle Burroughs as a free agent, the Canucks shored up their blueline, adding Carson Soucy, Ian Cole, and Matt Irwin to provide some veteran stability. The Canucks will also have Filip Hronek in a major role on defense. He played just four games after he was acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline. Up front, Vancouver stuck with low-key additions, bringing in centers Teddy Blueger and Pius Suter, inexpensive options who should be able to help on the lower half of the depth chart. It was not the most aggressive offseason, but the overhaul on the blueline could make a difference.

What would success look like? Barring a bad run of injuries, the Canucks are too good to bottom out, so success would have this team reaching the playoffs. That will require goaltender Thatcher Demko to bounce back to his previous form and the new-look defense will need to be more reliable than what the Canucks were working with last season. Real long-term success would probably include getting Elias Pettersson signed to a long-term contract extension, but if the Canucks continue to get high-end production out of Pettersson and J.T. Miller, that will give them the offensive foundation to be competitive.

What could go wrong? Most teams would be in trouble if they lost their starting goaltender to injury, but that insecurity may be more pronounced in Vancouver, where Thatcher Demko is so much better than backup Spencer Martin. If the new faces on defense don’t make Vancouver any more reliable, and regression comes for sophomore winger Andrei Kuzmenko, suddenly the season could start going sideways for Vancouver. Can head coach Rick Tocchet guide this team to more consistent play? There were some positive signs last season, not least of all that J.T. Miller showed up to play down the stretch, but it is easy to look at the Canucks going into this season and feel like what could go wrong is a more likely outcome that what success would look like.

Top Breakout Candidate: Part of the return for last season’s trade sending Bo Horvat to the Islanders, Anthony Beauvillier is in a great situation with Vancouver to have the best season of his career. He produced 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in his first 18 games with the Canucks before fading late in the season, but he is expected to have a shot at skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko in addition to having a spot as part of Vancouver’s top power play unit. If Beauvillier holds onto those roles, he should surpass his relatively modest career high of 40 points, set last season.

Forwards

Elias Pettersson

After producing between 66 and 68 points in three of his first four seasons, Pettersson busted out in 2022-2023, scoring 102 points (39 G, 63 A), a thoroughly impressive season that showcased his offensive potential. Pettersson generated 3.21 shots on goal per game, easily the highest rate of his career, and he should be shooting as much as possible because he has an exceptional release. He scored on 15.2% of his shots last season, the lowest rate of his career, but he has scored on 16.6% of his shots through five NHL seasons. In those five seasons, there are only six players to have at least 500 shots on goal and have a higher shooting percentage than Pettersson – Leon Draisaitl, Brayden Point, Mark Scheifele, T.J. Oshie, Steven Stamkos, and Chris Kreider. From December 3rd through January 14th, Pettersson had 25 points (7 G, 18 A) and 61 shots on goal in 16 games. Pettersson, who still looks like he can get knocked over by a stiff breeze, is a surprisingly effective defender, with his hockey sense overcoming his lack of brawn. His reliable defensive play helps drive his strong possession results, and Pettersson tied with teammate J.T. Miller for the league lead with five shorthanded goals and nine shorthanded points last season. On the power play, Pettersson’s wrist shot from the right circle is a weapon, one that should probably be used more often. The Canucks earned 53.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Pettersson on the ice and that was the best mark on the team. Obviously, there is a lot to like about a 100-point scorer that can drive play. Pettersson is likely to see some regression after his on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%, but his elevated shot rate is a strong foundation for point production. It would still be reasonable to expect 35 goals and 90 points from Pettersson.

J.T. Miller

An immensely talented player who will palpably downshift his effort when he gets frustrated, Miller has some of the worst backchecking lowlights in the league. However, when he is on his game, Miller uses his size to protect the puck and has high-end skill to go with it, so he creates opportunities in the offensive zone. His 117 assists in the past two seasons he ranks 12^th in the league. Miller also plays with a physical edge to his game and recorded a career-high 200 hits last season. Miller has versatility in his toolbox, too. He can play wing or center and in four seasons with the Canucks, has won 55.2% of his 3,363 draws. While he is a big point producer, Miller’s possession game is suspect. The Canucks controlled 50.9% of five-on-five shot attempts with Miller on the ice but earned just 46.5% of expected goals. He should be better than that, but it requires more consistency in his all-around game. Miller had a strong finish to the 2022-2023 season, scoring 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 21 games after the trade deadline. Miller should still be good for 30 goals and 80-plus points, and it is worth noting that his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 6.9%, his lowest since 2013-2014, so he could be due for some positive regression and that could give him more scoring potential.

Andrei Kuzmenko

The 27-year-old ripped up the NHL in his first season, scoring 39 goals and 74 points, and was an unusually pleasant surprise for the Canucks. As exciting as Kuzmenko was, he is a prime candidate for regression. He scored a bunch of goals from the doorstep in 2022-2023 and led the league with a shooting percentage of 27.3%, which is not a sustainable rate over a long period of time. Among skaters that have recorded at least 500 shots on goal in the past three seasons, only three (Leon Draisaitl, Brayden Point, and Chris Kreider) are the only ones scoring on more than 18.0% of their shots, and none are over 20.0%, so it is unreasonable to expect Kuzmenko to keep filling the net in the same way. Nevertheless, he is a legitimately skilled player who makes the Canucks better and can continue to do that, even if it will be difficult to match his opening act. Kuzmenko finished the season by scoring 30 points (17 G, 13 A) in his last 29 games, but he scored on a ridiculous 32.7% of his shots in that span. Trying to forecast Kuzmenko’s production from 2023-2024, regression is assumed, so 25 goals and 50 points might be a more reasonable expectation, even if that is a massive drop from his first-year production.

Brock Boeser

Last season was a tough one for Boeser. His father had passed away the previous spring and it took him a long time to get on track. Playing 17:14 per game last season, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season in 2016-2017, Boeser finished with 55 points (18 G, 37 A), which is just one point behind his career high. However, the Canucks controlled just 43.4% of expected goals and were outscored 67-53 during five-on-five play when Boeser was on the ice. He played with a bunch of different linemates, seven for more than 100 five-on-five minutes, and his second most common linemate, behind only J.T. Miller, was Phil Di Giuseppe. Boeser didn’t score a goal in his first 11 games, but he was returning to form by the end of the season, scoring nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 41 shots on goal in the last 11 games. Boeser has landed in many trade rumors in recent seasons, but he is still in Vancouver. At his best, Boeser has a quick release and a comfort around the net that has allowed him to score more than 20 goals in four different seasons. He should be expected to surpass 20 goals against next season and could reasonably challenge his career-best of 56 points.

Anthony Beauvillier

Acquired from the Islanders in the Bo Horvat trade, Beauvillier started his Canucks career with 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in his first 11 games. His pace slowed after that, and he ended up with 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 33 games for Vancouver on his way to a career-high 40 points. The 26-year-old winger has skills that allow him to play in a scoring role but has yet to establish the consistency in his all-around game to maintain a spot on a first line. However, his most common linemates in Vancouver last season were Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko so if that is going to be his reality in 2023-2024, then Beauvillier had better produce more than 40 points if he is going to warrant staying in that spot. The upside for Beauvillier is that he could also get first-unit power play time, which could push him closer to 50 points if he manages to stay in that role. Heading into the last year of his contract, Beauvillier is also likely trade bait if the Canucks are not in playoff contention by the trade deadline.

Conor Garland

A smallish but skilled and feisty winger, Garland saw his ice time cut last season and frequently finds his name in trade rumors. Even so, he is a valuable contributor on a Vancouver team with a lot of unproven options on the wing. After elevating his game early in his career in Arizona, Garland has been productive but there have been challenges in two seasons with Vancouver. The 27-year-old scored a hat trick in the final game of the season to give him 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 81 games. Of course, he had scored two goals in the previous 24 games, so there are ups and downs in Garland’s production. That scoring is not irreplaceable, but if the Canucks are planning on competing for a playoff spot, Garland’s reliability should not be overlooked. A reasonable forecast for Garland this season would put him around 45-50 points, but if he can’t secure a regular spot in the top six, that could present more of a challenge for his offensive production.

Ilya Mikheyev

After signing as a free agent with the Canucks, Mikheyev made a smooth transition into his new role, providing a strong two-way game, driving play, and scoring 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in 46 games before requiring surgery to repair a torn ACL. Mikheyev had played through the injury before finally deciding on the surgery. The lanky winger is an excellent skater which, combined with his size, makes him a strong forechecker. He can create scoring chances and, so far in his career, his output has varied based largely on whether his shots are going in. From November 18 through December 27, Mikheyev contributed 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 17 games. A healthy Mikheyev should be a fixture in Vancouver’s top six and his all-around play gives Vancouver a better chance to succeed. Mikheyev has never played more than 54 games in an NHL season, so it is difficult to trust his durability. That makes it a challenge to project him to score much more than 30 points, but he could provide more if he manages to stay healthy for a full season.

Pius Suter

An August free agent signing by the Canucks, Suter produced a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 79 games for Detroit last season and while that is not a big draw, Suter’s defensive play and penalty killing were positive contributions. That means that there is a role for him to fill, even if that role might be further down the depth chart than what he experienced in his first couple of seasons with Chicago. While his defensive play is the most attractive part of his game, Suter is not lost around the net. He shoots the puck well enough that he can score from distance, though the challenge can be creating enough of those opportunities. After averaging more than two shots on goal per game in his first two seasons, Suter had just 1.34 shots per game in 2022-2023, and that puts a limit on offensive production. There should be a path to Suter pushing for 30 points this season, which is quite useful if it is accompanied by Suter’s strong defensive play.

Vasily Podkolzin

While the 22-year-old winger has power forward potential, he managed just seven points in 39 games last season and was demoted to Abbotsford, where he contributed 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in 28 games. Podkolzin offers a tantalizing blend of size and skill and if it all gets harnessed properly, he could be an exciting scoring winger who also plays an aggressive physical game, but he remains a work in progress, and it will be up to Podkolzin to establish that he is indeed capable of taking his game to the next level. He has the release of a goal-scorer and showed a lot more in his rookie season before fading from view in his sophomore campaign. He has recorded 136 hits in 118 career games, averaging 12:29 of ice time per game. As Podkolzin continues to grow, the Canucks should find him a regular role and let him develop. Without any assurances of a major role at the start of the season, expectations should remain modest. If Podkolzin matches his rookie output of 26 points, that should be considered a successful season.

Defense

Quinn Hughes

A one-man transition game, Hughes recorded career highs of 69 assists and 76 points last season. While that offensive production is elite, Hughes’ play away from the puck is improving, too, and was a positive factor in his defensive contribution during the 2022-2023 season. Hughes has been a monster performer on the Vancouver power play, recording 65 power play points in the past two seasons to lead all defensemen. His 144 points overall in the past two seasons ranks fourth, behind Roman Josi, Cale Makar, and Adam Fox, so he is traveling in good company. Hughes started the season with 21 assists through the first 18 games and finished the season with 15 points (2 G, 13 A) in his last 15 games, despite having a six-game scoreless drought.

Filip Hronek

Acquired from the Detroit Red Wings before the trade deadline, Hronek finished with a career-high 39 points (9 G, 30 A) even though he was shut down after just four games in Vancouver due to a shoulder injury. Hronek has established himself as a quality right-shot puck-moving defenseman who can make long-range passes and quarterback the power play. At the same time, his defensive game showed progress last season and if Hronek can handle logging big minutes and still provide solid defensive play, he will be a factor for the Canucks in the 2023-2024 season. Hronek scored 16 of his 39 points on the power play last season, and it seems unlikely that he will have the chance to duplicate those power play numbers so long as Hughes is anchoring the first power play unit. Even so, Hronek’s track record suggests that 35 points is well within his range.

Tyler Myers

The much-maligned veteran defenseman has played more than 20 minutes per game in every one of his 14 NHL seasons, though last season’s 20:54 ATOI per game was the lowest of his career. There have been ups and downs along the way and last season would have to be considered a down because Myers had poor possession numbers, including 45.1% Corsi and 44.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play. The Canucks were outscored by 22 goals during five-on-five play with him on the ice, tying his career worst five-on-five goal differential. He is an excellent skater, especially for someone who is 6’ 8”, but it all comes down to decision making with Myers and too often those decisions lead to problems in the defensive zone. At this stage of his career, Myers still gets significant ice time, but he is not as much of an offensive threat, so 20 points is around the high end of what should be expected.

Carson Soucy

Following a strong season playing on Seattle’s third pairing, Soucy signed with Vancouver as a free agent, and that could come with an opportunity to play in the top four. Although Soucy finished with a modest 16 points (3 G, 13 A), while playing 16:18 per game in 78 games for the Kraken, he also picked up a career-high 143 hits, so if his ice time gets a boost, those numbers should climb, too. Soucy is a big presence in the defensive zone, standing 6-foot-5 and not afraid to use that size to his advantage, and the 29-year-old could be ready for a new phase in his career. While he could see a little more playing time this season, Soucy still has limited scoring upside. His career high is 21 points, set in 2021-2022 with Seattle, so anything beyond that would have to be considered a bonus.

Goaltending

Thatcher Demko

The 2022-23 season was a terrible, horrible, no-good day of sorts for starter Thatcher Demko. After starting the season looking uncharacteristically sloppy in net, the team’s number one suffered a torn groin midway through the season and missed a whopping three months of game action; by the time he came back, it was too little too late for his season’s performance. Although he was able to return to the Vezina-worthy form he had showcased in his first few years in the league, his struggles at the start of the year were enough to put him firmly in the league’s statistical basement while his team spent another year looking more forward to the draft lottery than the postseason.

When he’s healthy and playing at his best, Demko is a game-changer for the Canucks – something they desperately need, particularly given the kind of cap-related struggles they continue to find themselves in. He plays an uncharacteristically active game for a goaltender of his size but has the kind of strong foundational base to his technique to deliver more consistent saves when he needs to. He’s got the kind of game that makes it look like he’s having a ton of fun when his opponents are trying to frustrate him, making him well worth the price of admission night in and night out. But although he had an unexpected break in the season to mentally reset (something he even admitted to during media sessions in the spring), it’s hard to head into the 2022-23 season feeling as confident in what he can deliver as fans might have the year prior. He was struggling even before his injury, and the lack of a clear step forward for the Canucks yet again makes it risky to assert that he’ll be fine to lead the charge without some kind of improvement on the team’s blue line in front of him. He’s got the talent to make the Canucks a threat in the West – but as evidenced last year, he needs the team to step up around him to really challenge for a spot as a Pacific Division contender.

Projected Starts: 55 - 60

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – VANCOUVER CANUCKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:57:43 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 03: Vancouver Canucks center J.T. Miller (9) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Arena on April 3, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

J.T. Miller

It is unusual for a player to have his best season when he is in his late twenties, but 29-year-old J.T. Miller delivered a monster season for the Canucks in 2021-2022, recording 32 goals and 99 points while the Canucks outshot opponents with Miller on the ice and struggled to do so when he was off the ice. Not only does Miller have skill and playmaking ability, but he is a strong physical player who recorded 172 hits, making him the only player in the league to have that many hits while recording more than a point per game. It would be asking a lot for Miller to duplicate the best season of his career, and there is some likelihood of percentages declining, but he also generated a career-best 2.58 shots per game last season and his high percentages, both in terms of his own shooting percentage and 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage have been above average every year that he has been in Vancouver. That would seem to indicate that he is still capable of producing in the range of a point per game, maybe a little more.

Elias Pettersson

Following an injury-shortened 2020-2021 season, Pettersson got off to a terrible start and by mid-January had just 17 points in 37 games. He looked lost and his confidence was fading fast. At his low point, he looked nothing like the slick playmaker that he had been for most of his first three seasons in the league, when he earned a reputation for making smart and creative plays in the offensive zone, providing surprisingly effective defensive play, and then ripping wrist shots to the top shelf. That player returned for the second half of last season, as Pettersson finished the season with 26 goals and 51 points in his last 43 games. He moved to left wing to play with Miller and that seemed to bring out the best in both. It also appeared to bring back Pettersson’s confidence and while his finish to the season would suggest that the 23-year-old could go for more than a point per game over a full season, that might be a bit optimistic. He has never scored more than 70 points in a season but that could happen this season.

Bo Horvat

The Canucks captain brings his hard hat to work and scored a career-high 31 goals last season. He does a lot of his damage on the power play. In the past five seasons, Horvat has scored 49 goals with the man advantage, tied with Brayden Point for 13^th in the league over that time. Horvat has played a significant role with the Canucks in those five seasons, averaging 19:54 of ice time per game and winning 54.9% of his faceoffs. In his eight-year NHL career, he has five 20-goal seasons and four seasons with at least 50 points, so he has established a baseline for what he might be able to produce. If he stays reasonably healthy, a point total in the mid-50s would be a fair expectation for a 27-year-old who, barring a new contract, is set to be a free agent at the end of next season.

Brock Boeser

Since scoring 29 goals as a rookie in 2017-2018, Boeser has not been able to get back to that level of production. He has a good shot but could always be more aggressive about using it. While Boeser’s all-around game looks like it could use some improvement, it’s worth observing that he always has better shot differentials relative to the rest of the team. Some of that might be due to more offensive zone starts, but those results have held long enough that he does deserve some credit. Boeser did have his fourth 20-goal campaign last season, so the goal-scoring ought to continue, but he had a low on-ice shooting percentage, which suggests that regression could bring a few more assists his way, which should put him in the 55-to-60-point range.

Conor Garland

An undersized winger who was acquired from Arizona, Garland had a brilliant start to his Canucks career, scoring eight points in his first six games, then finished his first season with 16 points in his last 12 games. In between, the production was a little spotty, but in total, Garland finished with a career-high 52 points to go with excellent puck possession numbers. Even though the 26-year-old is on the smaller side, he has a relentless style of play that earned him a place in the league and coupled with his offensive production, Garland is now a primary scorer. He produced a career-high 52 points last season and should be able to surpass 50 points again this season.

Ilya Mikheyev

In his first couple of seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Mikheyev established that he could control play and generate shots, but had trouble finishing, tallying 15 goals in 93 games, scoring on just 7.3% of his shots. Last season, the puck started to find the net and Mikheyev scored 21 goals in 53 games, burying 14.3% of his shots. Tthat helped increase his demand in the free agent market. At 6-foot-3, Mikheyev has the size to cycle the puck in the offensive zone but he is an excellent skater so he can use that both in transition or on the forecheck to create chances. Now that he has shown some touch around the net, he ought to be able to contribute in a middle six role for Vancouver. The question about Mikheyev is whether he can stay healthy – in two of his three seasons he has missed substantial time with injuries – so in terms of projecting his offense going forward, it might be most reasonable to say that Mikheyev could surpass last season’s 32 points, his career high, and potentially by a wide margin if he plays something close to a full schedule.

Nils Hoglander

Although he went through some offensive dry spells and managed just 18 points in 60 games last season, there is still plenty of reason to like Hoglander’s contributions. The 21-year-old winger drives play consistently and can generate shots. It just so happened that pucks were not going in and he went through a horrid slump in the middle of the season. From mid-December through the end of February, Hoglander played in 26 games and managed one goal and four points. He is an easy candidate for a bounce-back season but where he plays in the lineup will have some say in just how big of a bounce-back is possible. Hoglander should be able to score 15 goals and 30 points, as a starting point, but has potential for more depending on how high he fits on the depth chart.

Vasily Podkolzin

The 21-year-old got off to a relatively slow start to his rookie campaign last season, scoring three goals with no assists in his first 15 games, but he got more comfortable as the season progressed and finished the year with nine points in his last 11 games. Podkolzin has good size and has power forward potential. He plays a reliable enough game without the puck so that should help secure a spot in the lineup, but if he is going to grow into possibly become a star quality player, Podkolzin will need to generate more shots but if he can pick up where he left off at the end of last season, Podkolzin’s second season could be exciting. The Canucks are deep on the wings, so optimism around Podkolzin ought to be cautious, but he could challenge for 20 goals if he can get enough ice time.

Tanner Pearson

The 30-year-old winger has two 20-goal and three 40-point seasons to his credit. He has decent size and speed, enough skill to fit in a middle six role but, as noted, the Canucks have a lot of bodies competing for playing time on the wings and it’s possible that Pearson could find it challenging to earn a regular spot in the top nine. Nevertheless, he has been able to produce more than 30 points five times in his career, including last season, and that’s probably a reasonable expectation for what he could score this season.

DEFENSE

Quinn Hughes

Any concern about Hughes’ play without the puck tends to be overblown because he is such an elite creator of offense that he tends to generate more shots and chances than he gives up. He is also not a terrible defender, as some other puck-moving defensemen might get classified. Hughes will turn 23 early in the season and he is a fantastic skater who plays with confidence and creativity. He is every bit the kind of player that a team should seek to build their defense around and, while there is obviously strong competition, a Norris Trophy at some point in his career is not out of the question for Hughes. As for his point production, Hughes finished with a career-high 68 points last season but going for 70-plus points this season would still be a fair expectation.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

While there is little chance that Ekman-Larsson’s production will match his lofty contract, the 31-year-old delivered a solid first season in Vancouver after spending the first 11 years of his career in Arizona. He played more than 22 minutes per game for the 10^th time in the past 11 seasons and his per-game shot rate improved over the previous season. He might be a fringy top-pair defenseman at this stage of his career, but Ekman-Larsson could still be a strong top-four option. His percentages were relatively low last season so a little favorable regression could push him over 30 points this season.

Tyler Myers

Even at 6-foot-8 Myers is a smooth skater and while he will have moments in which his reads or positioning can get him into trouble, he is still a viable top-four defenseman. His relative possession numbers are a small negative and the Canucks have been outscored by 12 goals over three seasons with Myers on the ice during 5-on-5 play. It’s not great, and probably not worth his salary cap hit, but it’s not as terrible as critics would suggest. The 32-year-old is not asked to contribute as much offensively as he did earlier in his career, so he may score 20-25 points but he was also one of 11 defensemen to have at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season so he can fill the stat sheet in other ways.

Luke Schenn

At 32-years-old, the veteran blueliner seemed to find his niche as a partner to Hughes. Schenn’s 17 points last season was his most since 2011-2012, and his average ice time of 17:13 was his highest since 2016-2017. Schenn is not good with the puck on his stick, so he is a good partner for Hughes, in that he Schenn offers complementary skills that Hughes does not typically bring to the game. While his puck skills may be limited, Schenn is not shy about bringing a physical presence to the game. He recorded 273 hits last season, the fifth time in his career that he surpassed 250 hits in a season, and Schenn will drop the gloves when needed. A 15-point season is about all that can be reasonably expected from Schenn offensively.

GOALTENDING

Thatcher Demko

It’s finally looking like Vancouver is ready for the Thatcher Demko show. After a handful of seasons in which the Pacific Division club kept the American-born netminder splitting his net with veteran mentors, Demko made his starter debut in the 2021-22 season with a 64-game campaign. He held his own, too; while the Canucks are still desperately working their way out from under some truly ill-advised contracts and roster transactions, his numbers were good enough to rise up above the Western Conference’s glut of rebuilding rosters and return to the Wild Card chase.

Much of that is thanks to the fact that Demko has continued to fine-tune the more controlled elements of his game without losing the creative spark that made him look so attractive as a prospect; he’s eliminated a lot of unnecessary extra movement as he learns to read shooters and systems at the NHL level, but has kept that wide-ranging toolkit of unexpected stop selections in his arsenal that make him so hard for offensive systems to read in return. Add in some smart depth management to go with intimidating size, and Demko shines as an example of a goaltender who can both close off holes in his net from a sightline perspective and react effectively to the high-danger chances that teams create for themselves when the defense in front of him struggles a bit. Now, the only thing that lacks certainty in Vancouver’s crease is who will emerge as his second-in-command; with both Mikey DiPietro and Spencer Martin hovering at the door to the NHL in the team’s depth chart and Jaroslav Halak departing for the New York Rangers in the off-season, the Canucks will have to determine who provides the club with their best chances for success moving forward.

Projected starts: 60-65

NCAA: Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview and Predictions

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 06 Mar 2020 15:46:41 +0000

The NCAA tournament is selected through a mathematical formula called the Pairwise. The top 16 seeds make it, but six seeds are reserved for the tournament winners from each DI conference. Once those six tournament berths are awarded, the remaining 10 slots are awarded to the teams in order of their Pairwise ranking.

ANN ARBOR, MI - JANUARY 31: Ohio State Buckeyes forward Matthew Jennings (19) moves the puck away from Michigan Wolverines forward Jimmy Lambert (23) during the Michigan Wolverines game versus the Ohio State Buckeyes on Friday January 31, 2020 at Yost Ice Arena Center in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

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At the conclusion of a remarkably tight Big Ten schedule, the postseason is upon us. Inappropriately named, the Big Ten has but seven teams competing in Men’s Hockey (the talk of the University of Illinois making it eight has quieted down of late). Seven competitors requires some creativity in setting up a playoff, and the conference has risen to that challenge with a structure that gives the top seeded team a bye week while the runners-up play the basement dwellers, the three seed plays the six and the fourth and fifth seeded teams square off in best of three series in the home arenas of the higher ranked teams. Those short sets all take place this weekend, Friday, Saturday, and, as needed, on Sunday.

I mentioned above that the conference this year has played remarkably tight. Penn State come away as the regular season champions, but only one victory (three points) ahead of runners-up Ohio State. The same three-point gap between Penn State and Ohio State is the gap between OSU and sixth seed Michigan State. If Wisconsin could only keep the puck out of their own net once in a while – they surrendered 124 goals in 34 games, a full 30 goals more than the next most porous team – the parity in the conference could have been historic. Alas.

Before we get into the matchups, we should discuss another notable aspect of the Big Ten in 2019-20. I had written above about how Wisconsin couldn’t stop the puck and further how their inability in that domain was significantly worse than the rest. This is notable less due to Wisconsin’s own ineptitude in net, but due to the other six teams all featuring goaltenders who could be the objects of NHL teams’ attentions once their seasons are over. This is even more remarkable as only Minnesota has a drafted netminder (two, in fact). As for Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Michigan State, they all field starting goalies who were overlooked at the draft but are legitimate candidates to be offered Entry Level Contracts as undrafted free agents after this season or in the near future. As I write about each team in their first-round matchup, I will spend extra time introducing you to the goalies of record.

Regular Season Champ (First Round Bye): Penn State (20-10-4, 12-8-4-1 Big Ten)

The regular season champs play an exciting brand of high-event hockey. They scored 79 goals in conference play and 121 overall both marks that topped their peers. On the other hand, only Wisconsin allowed more than their 70 goals against in conference play. They took 64 shots on net more than the runners up and their shots allowed total was closer (albeit marginally) to the bottom than the top of the conference. They had the best power play, and the best penalty kill, although the latter unit got a ton of practice, as the Nittany Lions were among the most penalized teams in the conference.

One might think that a team like this is all offense, and they wouldn’t be half wrong. Penn State had six players reach the 25-point mark, with three scoring at a point-per-game clip. Those six top scorers were a savvy, veteran crew, which included the team’s top five scorers from last season (Nate Sucese, Evan Barratt, Alex Limoges, Liam Folkes, and Brandon Biro), joined by blueliner Cole Hults. Of that group, Barratt most has the look of a future NHLer, albeit unlikely to be more than a third liner. That said any of them could reasonably find their ways up the pro ranks.

In net, we have Peyton Jones, whose brother Nolan plays baseball in the Cleveland system. Peyton has near idea; size at 6-4” and over 200 pounds. He is impressively mobile for his size. The senior has been a workhorse throughout his collegiate career, with this year’s 30 starts (s0 far) being his fewest in a full season. He saved his best season for last though, improving his save percentage from barely over .900 to a lofty .919. Between his size, athleticism and ability to stop pucks, he should find his way to the AHL next season, likely on an NHL deal.

Drafted players: Kevin Wall (CAR), Clayton Phillips (PIT), Evan Barratt (CHI), Denis Smirnov (COL), Cole Hults (LA)

2 Ohio State (18-11-5, 11-9-4-1 Big Ten) vs 7 Wisconsin (14-18-2, 7-15-2-2 Big Ten)

Like Penn State, Ohio State can score with the best, but occasionally has had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. In fact, in conference play, they have surrendered exactly as many goals as they have scored, 62 apiece. They tied for 2^nd in the conference on points with Michigan and Minnesota but win the tie breaker as they have more victories. If goal-differential was the tie breaker instead, the Buckeyes would have finished in fourth. The funny thing is, when they won the conference last year, their goals allowed metrics were practically the same as this year. The difference between 2018-19 and now is that they have scored significantly less this year.

Despite the presence of the gifted playmaker Tanner Laczynski and a rapidly improving Quinn Preston on the roster, among others, they have not made up for the graduation of top line current pros Mason Jobst and Dakota Joshua. In fact, there is a pretty big dropoff in production after OSU’s top four scorers – Laczynski, Preston, Carson Meyer, and Gustaf Westlund – and the rest of the roster. With two of those four graduating after the season, this may be the end of a window of contention for Ohio State that saw them make the tournament four years in a row, including one appearance in the Frozen Four, after not getting out of the conference for seven straight years.

Manning the crease for OSU is big Tommy Nappier. In the last two years as a full-time starter, his save percentage has been between .929-.934. He is tall and broad-shouldered. Some would consider him portly. (Some scouts have used less-polite terms). But he doesn’t just rely on his frame to block pucks. He plays an aggressive, athletic game. He challenges the shooters, can scramble back to the goal line in a pinch. His reactions are quick, and I would recommend slightly toning down the aggressiveness, as he can get caught out on occasion being too far from the goal mouth, but his track record is phenomenal. Nappier has been one of the better goalies in the NCAA over the last two years and I would be somewhat surprised if he isn’t offered an NHL contract in the next month or so.

Then we have Wisconsin. Rarely does a team with so much talent on the surface play so poorly. Among Big Ten schools, only Minnesota (14) has more than Wisconsin’s 12 drafted players. And none of the other schools have more than the Badgers three first rounders. And I am not even considering Dylan Holloway here, who is widely expected (including by us) to be a first round pick this June.

The Badgers can score with the best of teams in the NCAA. Their 110 goals are behind only Penn State in the conference and are tied for 13^th nationally. The problems is that despite icing a blueline which includes five drafted players, they cannot keep pucks out. Their total of 3.65 goals allowed per game ranks third last nationally. That is partially a function of giving up too many prime scoring chances, as they rank 51/60 in shots allowed per game. That also underscores how poorly they have done in stopping the shots that they have faced. Starting netminder Daniel Lebedeff has an ugly .894 save percentage, the worst among all netminders in NCAA who have played in at least 25 games. If I lower the threshold to 20 games, two others slip below. The Finnish sophomore was no better as a freshman, nor really in his pre-collegiate days. His feet are all over the place, he is too often not square to the shooters. He is the only starting netminder in the conference that I would unequivocally state has no professional future in North America.

Of course, I wouldn’t say that about some of the skaters in front of him. Cole Caufield has flashed the elite goal scoring prowess that made him a first rounder last year, although he has slowed down in the second half of the year. Fellow first rounder Alex Turcotte also shows flashes of greatness albeit not as consistently game to game as one would prefer. The third first rounder on the roster, K’Andre Miller has shown more of a nasty side this year, although not always well timed nastiness. He still has first pairing potential for the NHL, but seems to have regressed some this year. For me, the Badger who has improved the most this year has been blueliner Ty Emberson. Always a very strong physical defensive presence, he has shown a bit more willingness to get involved at the offensive end. Wisconsin can be a really fun, but extremely frustrating team to watch. Even though most of the Badgers’ high-end players are underclassmen, Wisconsin may be hard pressed to keep players like those mentioned in this paragraph on campus for another year, considering how this year has gone.

Ohio State drafted players: Carson Meyer (CBJ), Tanner Laczynski (PHI), Ryan O’Connell (TOR), Layton Ahac (VGK)

Wisconsin drafted players: Ty Emberson (ARI), Linus Weissbach (BUF), Max Zimmer (CAR), Josh Ess (CHI), Tyler Inamoto (FLA), Jack Gorniak (MON), K’Andre Miller (NYR), Wyatt Kalynuk (PHI), Owen Lindmark (FLA), Alex Turcotte (LA), Cole Caufield (MON), Ryder Donovan (VGK)

Prediction: Ohio State in three, with the final being a nail biter.

3 Michigan (16-14-4, 11-10-3-2 Big Ten) vs 6 Michigan State (15-17-2, 11-11-2-0 Big Ten)

The first year of the post-Quinn Hughes era in Michigan has been underwhelming, but altogether not bad. The team offense was middle of the pack nationally, down around one-third of a goal from 2018-19. Thankfully for the Wolverines, they have more than made up for the set back by hacking over a full goal per game off of their goals allowed. Their 2.12 mark ranks eighth nationally and tops among Big Ten schools. They actually play a fairly well controlled team game and tend to control the possession, generating shot totals near the national lead.

The main challenge is that Michigan struggles to turn those shots into goals. Senior Jake Slaker was the only skater with more than eight goals on the year, and he was also the only one with more than 21 points. The two heralded freshman from the USNTDP class of 2019, first rounders Cam York and John Beecher, had solid debuts, but neither really dominated. I expect both to take over the team next year, especially Beecher, whose physical tools are rarely seen, but they aren’t there just yet. Not helping things is the step back from team captain William Lockwood, whose point production was cut by one third compared to last season.

As discussed above, Michigan’s defense has been the key to the team staying in games all year. As promising as Cam York is, and as solid as the likes of Jack Summers, Keaton Pehrson, and Luke Martin are, the lynchpin to that defense stood between the pipes, as it so often has for Big Ten teams this year. For the Wolverines, the player generally between the pipes has been Strauss Mann, who has become s the workhorse this year after splitting time in the net as a freshman last year. Listed at only 6-0”, Mann was never looked at as a top prospect, but maybe he should have been. Prior to going to school, he spent a year with Fargo of the USHL. He put up a .932 save percentage and led the Force to a championship. This was not a team loaded with NHL caliber talent, either, with only one skater who appeared in the playoffs who had been, or would be, drafted. Mann wasn’t great as a freshman for the Wolverines, but sits on a .936 save percentage now, sixth in the nation. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with positioning, staying square to the shooter, a good glove hand, and strong lateral mobility. Another season like this one and NHL teams will be more willing to overlook his stature.

Michigan State are a long way removed from their 2007 championship, but this season, as mediocre as it has seemed on the surface, was a big step in the right direction. Their 15 victories are their top mark since 2014-15. The Spartans still lack the offensive firepower to truly be a national contender, and their goals per game mark of 2.35 was only 48^th nationally and worst in the Big Ten. The team has two drafted forwards, but they combined for only nine points on the season – equal to the contributions of the team’s two drafted defensemen.

Clearly, Michigan State lacks in high end NHL talent, but there are a few players here who have earned the attention of NHL scouts. Big center Patrick Khodorenko, a senior, was not drafted out of the USNTDP, but has been at or close to a point per game since his sophomore season. His skating is a bit on the rough side, but his hockey IQ, great hands and sheer presence, should earn him an ELC. And still only 21 years old, he is quite young for a college senior. Big blueliner Jerad Rosburg, the son of an NFL coach, plays with a football mentality, as a physical and imposing stopper. The senior also is proving capable with the puck. Winger Mitch Lewandowski and defender Dennis Cesana still have eligibility after this year and lack the size of Khodorenko or Rosburg, but they have ensured that MSU should not be taken lightly.

Those four aside, the key to Michigan State’s hopes of winning the Big Ten for the first time and getting back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, rest in the form of another senior in netminder John Lethemon. After a rough freshman season, Lethemon was OK for the Spartans as a sophomore and as a junior, with .903 and .905 save percentages, respectively. Which is to say that he .937 mark this year was somewhat unexpected. He is a 6-3” butterfly netminder with a good glove and a conservative style that keeps him in the paint. He is very calm and tries to minimize the room an opponent has to shoot. He can scramble if needed, but his success has been a function of being ready for the first shot.

Michigan drafted players: Jack Becker (BOS), Luke Martin (CAR), Nick Pastujov (NYI), William Lockwood (VAN), John Beecher (BOS), Eric Ciccolini (NYR), Cam York (PHI)

Michigan State drafted players: Mitchell Mattson (CGY), Cole Krygier (FLA), Christian Krygier (NYI), Josh Nodler (CGY)

Prediction: Michigan State with the upset in three games. No more than five goals in any one game.

4 Minnesota (14-13-7, 9-8-7-4 Big Ten) vs 5 Notre Dame (14-13-7, 9-9-6-4 Big Ten)

Finally, we have our matchup of the mediocre. With all due respect to the two stories programs of Minnesota and Notre Dame – the former is a five time champion and the latter has reached the Frozen Four four times since 2008 – 2019-20 has simply not been their year for either school. In fact, neither school is likely to make the NCAA tournament barring a lengthy run in the Big Ten tournament. In Big Ten, Minnesota was the slightest bit better, as both teams won nine conference games, but Notre Dame has one extra loss while the Golden Gophers have an extra win. Minnesota scored four more times than they allowed while Notre Dame was dead even. Stepping outside of conference play, the two teams were even tighter, with identical 14-13-7 records, with goal differentials within two goals of one another. Even in head-to-head play, they were evenly matched up. Each team won once, and tied twice. The biggest differences in the teams are that Minnesota attempts fewer shots, but counters that with a better penalty kill and a better propensity for drawing penalties.

While they do a poorer job of controlling possession, I would say that Minnesota has better talent up and down its lineup, and not just because they have way more drafted players to draw from. The Golden Gophers get relatively little offense from their blueliners, but have a few talented forwards who can dazzle if not as consistently as one might wish. Samuel Walker is an undersized dynamo, with great speed and playmaking chops. Sampo Ranta, when he is at his best, is a very dangerous scoring threat, assertive and possessing a great wrist shot. I should also mention Brannon McManus and Blake McLaughlin, former teammates with the Chicago Steel, who have been strong secondary sources of offense this year.

Notre Dame’s offense is more evenly distributed, partially out of necessity as they lack any real dynamic threats, Senior Cam Morrison was the team’s leading scorer. Even though he has not lived up to his promise as a second round pick, he has a knack for winning puck battles and a quick shot. Undrafted Alex Steeves has been more impressive, nearly tripling his freshman year production thanks to his puck skills and strong shot, which help him overcome his skating limitations (he isn’t a bad skater, but that is what kept him from being drafted). Notre Dame does have the upper hand when it comes to offensive contributions from the blueline, with both Matthew Hellickson and Spencer Stastney strong puck movers. The former as a passer and the latter with his legs.

But we really just want to talk about goalies, don’t we? Minnesota not only has the only drafted goalie in the conference, they have the only two drafted goalies in the Big Ten. Jack Lafontaine and Jared Moe split the crease relatively evenly this year and both had equal .915 save percentages, although Moe’s GAA was approximately 0.25 lower. LaFontaine is the more experienced netminder and in my views he has been the steadier of the two. I would imagine he will get the first game and Minnesota will play the hot hand as they can. Ironically, even as the only two drafted netminders in the conference, I would out five others from within the conference ahead of them in terms of pro potential at this point in their respective careers.

One of those five is Notre Dame’s fourth year starter, Cale Morris. While he dealt with some injuries this year, and his .917 save percentage is his worst mark since his one game freshman campaign, scouts I have spoken with still unanimously mention him as a good goalie, one who they were surprised returned to Notre Dame for his senior season. He was already named the Mike Richter Award winner in his sophomore season, his first as a starter, considering his amazing .944 save percentage. He may be on the smaller side at 6-1”, but his has plus mobility, anticipates the play well and has a quick glove. He will be in demand once his season ends.

Minnesota drafted players: Ben Brinkman (DAL), Blake McLaughlin (ANA), Sampo Ranta (COL), Robbie Stucker (CLB), Tyler Nanne (NYR), Scott Reedy (SJ), Samuel Walker (TB), Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB), Jack Perbix (ANA), Jackson Lacombe (ANA), Ryan Johnson (BUF), Jack LaFontaine (CAR), Bryce Brodzinski (PHI), Jared Moe (WIN)

Notre Dame drafted players: Nathan Clurman (COL), Nicky Leivermann (COL), Cameron Morrison (COL), Jacob Pivonka (NYI), Spencer Stastney (NAS), Matthew Hellickson (NJ), Trevor Janicke (ANA)

Prediction – Notre Dame in a road sweep. Low scoring games both.

Predicting the rest of the tournament

After the opening round, the teams are re-seeded with single game elimination deciding things the rest of the way. If the predictions above play out, we will see the following:

1 Penn State vs 6 Michigan State

2 Ohio State vs 5 Notre Dame

Call me crazy, but I like Michigan State in front of John Lethemon over Peyton Jones and Penn State in an upset. The teams each went 2-2 in head-to-head matchups during the season. I think Khodorenko and Lewandowski can crack the often porous Penn State defense

Ohio State takes down Notre Dame in the other contest, although, again, the two teams are pretty evenly matched.

Finally, I will go with Ohio State winning the tournament over Michigan State because Cinderalla doesn’t always go all the way

St. Louis Blues 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 13:06:09 +0000

In 2017-18, the St. Louis did not have its own AHL club, leaving it to split most of its minor pros between the San Antonio Rampage (then belonging to Colorado) and the Chicago Wolves (ostensibly a Vegas affiliate), with some players sent further afield, most notably Jordan Binnington to Providence, and Jake Walman to Binghamton. The NHL Blues missed the postseason.

Last season, St. Louis took over the San Antonio AHL club, as Colorado opened their own, more local team in-state. All of the Blues’ top tier minor leaguers were housed together, and coached as one unit in South-Central Texas. The Blues, as we all know, won the Stanley Cup for the first time in the franchise’s 52 year history. It would be so easy to correlate the two facts. After all, the aforementioned Binnington earned his first NHL recall around mid-season and took a last place team on a run for the ages, ending only in a parade. Right?

Of course not. For every AHL success story in the organization last year (Binnington was really the only one), there was another story of a once highly-touted prospect who took a step backwards. Think about how Binnington earned the call. The St. Louis goalies were playing poorly, with backup Chad Johnson earning a trip to the waiver wire while incumbent starter Jake Allen continued to disappoint with erratic play. St. Louis had been grooming Finnish puck stopper Ville Husso as the heir apparent in between the pipes , but the latter had seemingly hit a wall last season. Repeatedly. Husso’s two previous seasons in the AHL – one with Chicago and the second with San Antonio were very impressive. But he was having trouble stopping beach balls last season.

Binnington, on the other hand, one year after being shunted to a different organization’s AHL club, had a save percentage .056 higher. Why not go with the hot hand? To be honest, it wasn’t even a case of a hot hand. Binnington’s .927 AHL save percentage was practically the same as his .926 mark with Providence from the year before. And he maintained that .927 level over the remainder of the regular season with St. Louis, finally slowing down a touch in the postseason.

If we want more success stories from St. Louis’ first season with a full time affiliate in San Antonio, we could point to Jordan Kyrou, who seemingly mastered the level in his first season as a pro, although could not impact the NHL roster and was slowed by a knee injury requiring offseason surgery in the second half. Sammy Blais was also almost as good in his second season in Texas, earning a prolonged stint in the NHL and a relatively regular role in the postseason to boot. He didn’t exactly improve his projection, but he maintained it. Mackenzie MacEachern also earned his first NHL recall and did well enough even if he never saw the ice in the playoffs. Mitch Reinke proved to be a nice NCAA free agent signing as a rookie pro.

But there is also a downside. Jake Walman was repatriated by the organization and struggled mightily. Klim Kostin continued to tease with potential but still hasn’t taken a step forward. Erik Foley missed the entire season with concussion symptoms. Most of the other prospects on the farm simply failed to do much of anything. The Blues still had their parade and should be OK with the stasis on the AHL front, but we can rest assured that the new AHL franchise had no real role on the title, even if it should be to the organization’s benefit in the long run.

-Ryan Wagman

St. Louis Blues center Jordan Kyrou (33) (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

1 Jordan Kyrou, RW/C (35^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 3) An AHL All-Star last season, the Blues’ top-ranked prospect earned that honor as one of the most consistently dangerous players in the league. With San Antonio, the 21-year-old posted a 47-16-27-43 stat line in a season -- his first as a pro -- that featured some brief stints up in the NHL. His ferocious speed is matched by few opposing defensemen, and his acute technical footwork only plays it up. His shot is developing into a strong auxiliary weapon capable of testing netminders from mid-to-high danger areas, while his playmaking is coming along as well, though only tied to his speed. As a center, he is incredibly disciplined defensively, and his calm and composed mental game allows him to stay focused on the task at hand. Though the Blues are plenty stacked on centers at the moment, the club has an elite one-two punch of young pivots in the established Robert Thomas and the emerging Kyrou, who will have his shot at an NHL spot this training camp. - TD

2 Dominik Bokk, RW (25^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 4) Bokk had a sneaky good first full SHL season. His 23 points were third among junior-aged players. He at least showed that his progress as a player is steadily moving forward in his career. This upcoming season he will play a bigger role on a smaller SHL. He still has much to improve in his all-around game, but his pure skills are elite. His puck handling and creativity on the power play stand out. He has the offensive tools needed for a top line forward in the NHL, but he still has much to learn in how to use them effectively. His compete level needs to be higher including in his offensive game, such as going hard for his own rebounds instead of gliding out admiring his shot or learning when to make the boring, effective play rather than the pretty play with the puck. He has a high ceiling, but is a couple of years away before reaching it. - JH

3 Klim Kostin, RW (31^st overall, 2017. Last Year: 2) A top-five prospect in the St. Louis system for the third season running, Kostin was a risky pick back in 2017. But the hulking Russian has shown some flashes of downright dominance as an offensive player with San Antonio and in recent international appearances, enough to maintain a high spot on this rundown. Though he went through another underwhelming AHL season, the 6-3”, 212lbs 20-year-old impressed scouts with his body control, momentum on his skates, and his physical, power-forward game. A fast shot and nifty puck-protection skills make Kostin a fun player to watch when he gets to enter the zone with momentum, though his lack of speed and assertiveness can hold him back. He is still very young for an AHL player, and is still adjusting to the differing styles on the small ice. He may never be the player that drew comparisons to Evgeni Malkin during his draft year, but he can still be a useful NHL player within a year or two. - TD

4 Scott Perunovich, D (45^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 11) Two years of collegiate hockey, two NCAA championships. The team won thanks to efforts up and down the lineup, but Perunovich was the leading scorer as a freshman, and finished third on the team last year, leading all blueliners and only four points back of the top. He lacks the pure speed of the prototypical modern day blueliner, but he is an exceptionally shifty skater and slips past the first line of defense to pinch in deep at every opportunity. He will always need help in his own zone as he is small and lean, but if his partner can get the puck, Perunovich is the type that will ensure his team keeps it through the conclusion of a scoring chance. He has the tool set to play on a second unit in the NHL and receive power play time as well, a very valuable contributor as long as his weaknesses are kept in mind. - RW

5 Samuel Blais, LW (176^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 6) Rarely does a sixth-round pick play NHL hockey, and even more scarce are those that have the instant impact Blais had at that level. Inserted into the Blues lineup midway through their playoff run, the former QMJHL star was a spark of non-stop energy and a physical edge on every shift, playing all over the lineup and producing throughout. Aside from the hard work and grittiness that has drawn the respect of his teammates, the left-hander excels at getting into the right positions away from the puck, using his whippy, heavy shot at any opportunity. His offensive vision is not as impressive as his sizzling shot, but the 23-year-old is capable of making space for teammates by drawing defenders his way through his dominant puck-protection skills. He projects to be a depth scorer and energy line winger going forward, but his versatility and reliability can push him up into the top six if his coach needs a jolt. At 23, he is NHL ready. - TD

6 Tyler Tucker, D (200^th overall, 2018. Last Year: Not ranked) A real throwback defender, Tucker is one of the most physical defenders in the OHL. He is very effective at lining up attacking forwards as they cut across the blueline or attempt to cut to the middle of the ice. There are more facets to his game than just brutality. He has proven himself to be a very capable offensive defender who can quarterback the powerplay effectively with a good low shot and improving vision. His skating has also improved greatly in the last year. While further gains need to be made, especially to his four way mobility, there is no doubt that if he had progressed as a skater like this in his draft year, he would not have been a seventh round pick. Tucker’s high end projection would be a 4th or 5th defender who can play in a variety of situations and bring some toughness. - BO

7 Keean Washkurak, C (155^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) The best way to describe Washkurak’s game is that he plays much bigger than his size of 5-10”. He backs down from no challenge on the ice and is bound to be a coaches’ favorite as he moves up in levels because of this. When you combine his strong skating ability with his tenaciousness, on and off the puck, you have a terrific energy player who can provide change of pace, forechecking, and strong penalty killing to his team. It remains to be seen just how good his offensive game can become. He shows good vision when operating as a puck carrier below the hash marks and identifies passing lanes well. He will need to improve his ability to handle the puck and make plays at his top speed, in addition to his shot, if he wants to be more than a bottom six forward at the NHL level. There will always be places in the lineup for players like Washkurak. -BO

8 Nikita Alexandrov, C (62^nd overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) The German-born Russian Alexandrov turned heads last season, nearly doubling his point total from the previous year by adding mass to his frame and developing his skating ability. He was a decent skater, but refined his stride and position this season, and it paid off. He is a rock with the puck thanks to his anchored legs; he can spread out and make himself nearly impossible to knock off the puck. It has paid dividends along the wall and on the forecheck, as he is much stronger on his feet. Alexandrov is a two-way threat who is always able to jump in transition to form an offensive chance. He has the hockey sense to play low in the lineup, and the offensive ability to keep him in the top-six. - MS

9 Mitch Reinke, D (Undrafted Free Agent, signed Mar. 25, 2018. Last Year: 17) Not often do smooth-skating, offensively-inclined, right-handed defensemen go undrafted like Reinke, but judging by his rookie season with San Antonio, the Blues found themselves an absolute gem with the Michigan Tech product. Completing a 76-12-33-45 season with the Rampage as a rookie is a remarkable accomplishment, and one fueled by his skilled, heads-up offensive play. His speed allows him to frequently exit the defensive zone, while his vision and hockey sense give him the instincts to put the puck in the right place. He can jump into the play and let off his strong, accurate wrist shot, but he is more of a facilitator than anything. His defensive game will need to improve, especially his initial blue line defense and stick activeness, but he has shown some nastiness around the boards. Reinke, whose ceiling appears to be middle-pair puck-rusher, is arguably NHL ready, but it depends on what kind of game the Blues coaching staff wants him to play. - TD

10 Dakota Joshua, C (128^th overall, 2014 [Toronto]. Last Year: 18 [Toronto]) Drafted in the fifth round by Toronto in the pre-Kyle Dubas days, the current Maple Leafs regime is more about speed and skill than size and muscle and traded the graduating Joshua to St. Louis for future considerations before his rights were set to expire. All of which is not to say that he is not a player without skill. He protects the puck well with a long reach and has good enough hands to play in tight quarters. His shot is also an effective weapon. Joshua plays in a style that accentuates his size and strength, with his offensive game generally of secondary importance. He is a moderate skater, but it plays up thanks to his smarts and size. His ceiling isn’t much above the fourth line, but he is pretty close to being there now and could be an NHL contributor sooner than later. - RW

11 Erik Foley, LW (78^th overall, 2015 [Winnipeg]. Last Year: 9) Once in a while, we have a previously highly touted prospect who misses a full season to reasons out of his control. Foley is one of two in these pages (see also Timmins, Conor from Colorado) who missed a critical season of development due to post concussion symptoms. The skilled forward who averaged close to one point per game over both his sophomore and junior seasons at Providence is still in there, but without playing in game situations for now over 12 months, the rust has accumulated. As of this writing, there is no news regarding his status for the upcoming season, or at all. Consider this a place-holder then. Should he return to full health, there is no reason that his ability to drive the net with speed and protect the puck could not play on a middle six. - RW

12 Ville Husso, G (94^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 7) All while the previously unheralded Jordan Binnington stole the show in the crease, Husso had a horrendous season that further damaged his falling prospect stock. After a strong 2017-18 campaign, the Finn went 6-18-0 with a 3.67 GAA and .871 Sv% in 2018-19, eventually losing the clear-cut starting job to a slew of random cast-offs that featured Binnington and Jared Coreau. Husso still has the raw skill to make a name for himself, including his athleticism, size (and more importantly, the way he uses it), and his ability to read plays as they develop and position himself accordingly. He is an incredibly mature and calm netminder, even in epic defeats, maintaining a soft composure in the crease. He may never be better than an “okay” goalie after previously showing starter-potential; regardless, he will need another year or two. - TD

13 Colten Ellis, G (93^rd overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Ellis is a goaltender with a ton of talent. He is very quick, especially with his feet, and can track the puck with the best junior goalies in Canada. His biggest issue is one that can be solved with time and coaching from goalie coach David Alexander as he is raw. His movements are quick and his anticipation is top-notch, but he has a lot of wasted movement that could be refined. His fundamentals are solid, and he has the confidence to make it, but he needs to further refine his skills. His puckhandling is adequate, but simple. On a team where Jordan Binnington came out of nowhere to win a Cup, the Blues of all teams are fine with letting Ellis marinade a bit until he is ready, but he definitely has star goaltender potential. - MS

14 Alexei Toropchenko, RW (113^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 16) One of those players who passes the eye test quite often, but who just has not translated that to consistent production in the OHL. His playoff and Memorial Cup performance this year aside, Toropchenko continues to be an enigma offensively. He has the toolbox, be it long powerful strides that allow him to work effectively driving the puck to the net, or a quick wrist shot that has the ability to beat goaltenders clean. His lack of production could possibly be attributed to a limited hockey IQ and vision. With his size and skill advantage, he should be way more of a consistent threat, both with and without the puck on his stick. Patience will be required as the high end potential is quite alluring. If his playoff performance in this year’s OHL playoffs was his breakthrough moment, then the Blues could have a good one. - BO

15 Hugh McGing, C (138^th overall, 2018. Last Year: Not ranked) Drafted in his third year of eligibility, the undersized McGing has been quietly producing at fine levels since his age 18 year with Cedar Rapids of the USHL. One might consider his first post draft year to have been a mild disappointment, as he only equalized his point accumulation from the previous year, and in one additional game, to boot. On the other hand, the shape of his production shifted, as he went from a player who put up two assists for every goal over his underclassmen years to getting over half of his production from finishing as a junior. McGing is a shifty skater with plus hands but lacks the high end speed we would like to see in a player of his stature (5-9”, 174). He will finish his eligibility at Western Michigan before the Blues decide whether or not to offer him an ELC. At this point, I would consider a contract to be likely for the two-way forward. - RW

16 Jake Walman, D (82^nd overall, 2014. Last Year: 5) With limited offensive upside at this level, Walman instead plays the type of game that has made fellow Blues defensemen some of the toughest in the game to play against; he is physical, plays tight to his opposition, and is very aggressive with his stick. The 2014 third-rounder had a borderline awful 2018-19 season. He is smart and composed, lulling opponents to the outside of the lanes and playing assertively with his body and stick to force tough shot angles. A solid skater, he is one who can shut down rushes the other way with his foot speed, rarely losing inside position on an opposing forward. He has a good shot from the point and decent setup skills, but does not play forcefully enough on offense. He was a sleeper pick to make the Blues’ NHL roster last season, but failed, and it looks like Walman -- who now appears to be a depth d-man at best -- will simmer in the AHL again in 2019-20. - TD

17 Nolan Stevens, C (125^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 8) Standing 6-3”, Stevens reinforces the Blues’ stress on developing players with overwhelming size to succeed in their physical, possession-oriented lineup. Although his numbers with San Antonio (57-9-9-18 last season) are not turning any heads, his play as one of the Rampage’s most consistent two-way threats is inspiring. He is a very reliable two-way centerman who plays deep in his own zone, has the wheels to exit the zone with the puck, and can be a beast on the cycle with the playmaking vision and skill to make something happen out of the set behind the net. He is hard on the puck and can force it away from others with his long reach. However, his straight-line speed is horrid, and he has little in terms of shooting prowess. Before turning pro, there were concerns that Stevens was being carried by offensive catalysts like Dylan Sikura (CHI) and Adam Gaudette (VAN) with Northeastern. His first year in the AHL did little to combat that theory, and he looks like a career AHLer or up-and-down guy right now. - TD

18 Mackenzie MacEachern, LW (67^th overall, 2012. Last Year: Not ranked) One of the biggest surprises among Blues prospects last season was the onset of MacEachern, whose physical scoring game from his days at Michigan State looked to be around again with San Antonio and St. Louis last year. At 25, he has been knocking on the door of a full-time NHL depth winger role in spite of being an afterthought for most of his pro career. His combination of size and hand quickness/puck-handling proficiency is very intriguing, while his high-end work ethic and maturity make him an impactful penalty killer at both levels. Whether he is a long-term option in the Cup champs’ 12-man forward unit is an open question, but it is one that would not have been entertained as recently as last offseason. At 25, he is NHL ready as he is basically finished developing. - TD

19 Nathan Walker, LW (89^th overall, 2014 [Washington]. Last Year: 16 [Washington]) Despite his lack of size, Walker does well to make up for that in the speed and playmaking departments. He is quick and aggressive and plays with determination and the right amount of grit in his game to prove himself at the next level. Having already been present during the Washington Capitals recent Stanley Cup win, Walker knows a thing or two about playing at the NHL level, however consistency is key and that is something he will need to work on more next season. His last season with the Hershey Bears was his strongest year yet as a pro but he is still failing to prove himself to be better than a bottom six forward. He will need to work on finding more ways of getting to the net and staying cool and consistent throughout the season to prove to the St. Louis Blues that he is worthy of earning a spot on their roster. - SC

20 Joel Hofer, G (107^th overall, 2018. Last Year: Not ranked) Hofer has what teams look for in goaltenders these days. He is over 6-3”. Within that frame he is very athletic and quick. In his draft year he had firmly established himself as a backup ready to take a starter’s role, however Swift Current wasn’t the same team when he got a chance to start and his numbers dropped off playing on a team that struggled in all aspects of the game. He had a nice little uptick in performance after being traded to Portland but hasn’t shown much statistical progression year over year. When he is on he has a lot of poise and agility where he can make highlight reel saves and keep composed while under siege. He battles hard even when his team is overmatched, outshot and caved it. He endured a lot mentally this year and he seems to have come out the other side well. This strong mental side is key to becoming a very effective back-up goalie which is what Hofer projects to in the NHL. - VG

NCAA Playoffs (Pt.2) – St. Cloud State (top national seed) vs (4) American International College – West Regional, Denver vs (3) Ohio State – West Regional, Notre Dame vs (2) Clarkson – Northeast Regional

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 29 Mar 2019 14:04:24 +0000

As the NCAA rudely does not split the regional tournaments based on geographic point of origin, while Russ and I cover the various conferences according to geography, our previews are based on matchups instead of isolated regional looks. No matter, it should make for a better Frozen Four.

St. Cloud State (top national seed) vs (4) American International College – West Regional

Ryan Poehling (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Last year, the St Cloud State Huskies entered the NCAA tournament as the top seed in the nation, with the reward of a soft entry into the one-and-done hunt for glory against Air Force, the Atlantic Hockey champions. It was a rout. The Falcons shocked the college hockey world, taking out the Huskies with a 4-1 scoreline, a final punctuated by two late empty netters. So SCSU fans must currently be experiencing a rotten sense of deja-vu as they once again enter the tournament as the top seed in the nation, and for their trouble, get to kick things off against the Atlantic Hockey champs from AIC.

For the underdog Yellow Jackets, 2018-19 was not only the college’s first AH title, but also their first season with a winning record since 193-94, back when they were a DIII school. Swedish junior netminder Zacharias Skog has been a workhorse for AIC, with solid if not stellar numbers (2.75 GAA, .896 SV% in 33 games). The Yellow Jackets spread the offensive attack around, with seven skaters contributing at least 20 points, led by junior Blake Christensen, whose 46 points (sixth nationally) are AIC’s best single season total since entering DI.

As lovely a story as American International have, and as neat a storyline as a repeat first round upset for St. Cloud State would be, who are we kidding? AIC is an offensive team, and their 3.26 goals per game average was ninth nationally. No matter, as the Huskies finished second with 4.08 per match. You want defense? St. Cloud State allowed only 2.18 goals against per game (11^th nationally), while AIC surrendered 2.95 per game (37^th in DI). The Huskies were also significantly better on both special teams units. And of course the top seed in the land played in the NCHC, a traditional powerhouse, while I can’t remember when (if ever) Atlantic Hockey placed more than the obligatory conference tournament winner in the NCAA national tournament.

Kings’ draft pick David Hrenak should play in net, as he typically played in three quarters of his team’s games as a sophomore. The Huskies had ten players put up at least 20 points on the season. Leading scorer Patrick Newell is a natural playmaker with a good first few steps who might have just enough skill to entice an NHL team to give him a contract despite his lack of size. Blueliner Jimmy Schuldt is also expected to receive an NHL offer and has been tied to Montreal already. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, but does everything well enough to work in a whole-greater-than-the sum-of-its-parts sort of way. Everyone knows Ryan Poehling, former Montreal first rounder and multiple time member of the American WJC squad. His collegiate numbers don’t pop, but his hands are NHL ready. An X-factor for the Huskies could be freshman Nick Perbix, a former Tampa Bay sixth rounder. The big blueliner uses his frame and long reach well along the board and throughout the defensive zone, while being pleasantly surprising in the offensive end.

Prediction – St. Cloud State erases some demons and wipes the floor with AIC. The Yellow Jackets score twice (once after the game has been effectively decided) to keep some sense of pride.

Denver vs (3) Ohio State – West Regional

While 2017 champs Denver are the two seed, 2018 Frozen Four participant Ohio State likely would have had the honors if they had only made it to the Big 10 Finals, instead of being knocked out in the semis by Penn State. Denver, on the other hand, ended their conference tournament with a nice consolation match, beating Colorado College in the third place match, after being eliminated by Minnesota-Duluth.

This game has the potential to be a very low scoring affair, as both institutions finished the year in the top 14 nationally in goals allowed per game, at 2.08 (Denver) and 2.31 (Ohio State). The Buckeyes were the better offensive team though, outscoring the Pioneers on a per-game average by 0.27 goals per game (3.09-2.82).

If OSU wasn’t dissuaded by his rough Big10 tournament showing, big Tommy Nappier should get the nod in net as his fantastic .934 save percentage far overshadowed crease-mate Sean Romeo’s .902, as the latter’s play seemed to regress this year after a solid junior campaign.

The Buckeyes have a multi-faceted attack, blending big, powerful skaters (Dakota Joshua) with small waterbugs (Mason Jobst, Carson Meyer) and one of the top playmakers in college hockey in Tanner Laczynski to blend it all together. They feature one of the deeper lineups in college hockey, with talented players at all positions. The aforementioned Jobst and Nappier are both free agent candidates.

Moving to Denver, former championship hero Jarid Lukosevicius is joined by the likes of Mathias Emilio Pettersen, Liam Finlay, and Cole Guttman up front, while Ian Mitchell leads the charge from behind. The latter may be ready to turn pro after the tournament, as the former Chicago second rounder has been a consistent producer throughout his two years on campus.

What the Pioneers lack in terms of scoring depth (only five 20 point producers on the roster), they make up for in net, now that former Detroit draftee Filip Larsson is back and healthy after missing the early part of the year to injury. Then again, Denver could turn to Devin Cooley, a lanky sophomore who held down the fort while Larsson and who actually put up better numbers, although the latter point is only marginal. Either could lock down the crease and the difference would be minimal.

Ohio State plays with a full rink press and should have the edge on the shot counter, but volume will not be enough as they will need to generate quality, high-danger scoring chances to beat Denver, no matter which netminder gets the nod. To their credit, they have the playmakers to make it happen.

Prediction – Ohio State wins in a terse, one-goal game.

Notre Dame vs (2) Clarkson – Northeast Regional

But for the vagaries of single elimination hockey, Notre Dame, who made it to the Frozen Four finals last year, would not have made the tournament at all, despite a reasonable full season record, had they not won the Big10 conference tournament, conveniently located in their home rink. Clarkson, on the other hand, ended a good year on a high note, winning the ECAC tournament title in a thrilling overtime finish against Cornell.

For as much as Notre Dame is clearly the higher profile hockey club, the Fighting Irish enter the tournament as a nominal underdog against the higher ranked Golden Knights. While ND is still able to keep the puck out of their own end, thanks largely to star netminder Cale Morris, an athletic goalie who tracks very well and could be convinced to leave campus one year early, their ability to light the lamp at the other end has not recovered from the graduation of Jake Evans after last year. Big winger Joe Wegwerth, long the butt of my criticism in years past, was actually leading the offensive attack in the first third of the season, before his year, and collegiate career, were ended due to a knee injury.

Notre Dame has relied on an offense by committee, and the team’s leading scorer – and two of the top four – have actually come from the blueline. Undersized Bobby Nardella has always had more offensive flair than defensive and has developed into a top collegiate player, even if his pro prospects are more likely to peak in the AHL than the AHL. Blueline mate Andrew Peeke, a Columbus pick, better combines offensive and defensive play as he has a big body, covers in his own end, and has developed his instincts for jumping into the rush rather nicely. The team has some nice forwards such as free agents Dylan Malmquist and Cal Burke, but the forward corps is more notable for Colorado pick Cam Morrison’s failure to take steps forward beyond solid.

German center Nico Sturm is the man for Clarkson and, along with second line pivot Devin Brosseau, are the main scouting draws for the Golden Knights. Both players combine offensive ability with good size, and Sturm in particular has demonstrated two-way reliability in the recent past. Netminder Jake Kielly is also a likely future pro and is coming off his second straight season with a 0.929 save percentage and a GAA in the 1.80-1.90 range. He is a technically strong netminder with plus athleticism. Both teams in this matchup are defensively strong, but Clarkson is fourth nationally with a GAA more than 0.25 goals per game stingier than Notre Dame’s. The Fighting Irish will need to be beneficiaries of more than their fair share of power play opportunities to tilt the odds in their favor, even while acknowledging that the reverse (more PP opportunities for Clarkson) would be fateful as the ND PK is middle of the pack.

Prediction – Clarkson makes it past the first round for the first time in eleven years

Minnesota-Duluth (2^nd seed nationally) vs (4) Bowling Green State – Midwest Regional

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 28: Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs defenseman Scott Perunovich (7) takes a shot during the college hockey game between the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs and the Minnesota State Mavericks on December 28, 2018 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)

No matter how this matchup ends (you can probably guess), this season is a big success for Bowling Green State, as they had not appeared in the NCAA tournament since 1989-90 and are a long ways removed since their championship team in 1983-84. On the other hand, we have the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs, who are in their fifth straight tournament, a stretch which includes last year’s title run and narrowly misses an additional championship, way back in 2010-11. History is clearly on the side of the Bulldogs. The numbers are not as clear.

Bear in mind for a moment that it is difficult to fairly compare team-wide stats across different teams from different conferences. The competition is vastly different. While UMD was regularly squaring off against the likes of St. Cloud State, Denver, North Dakota, Western Michigan, and Colorado College, outside of Minnesota State, Bowling Green got to feed off of the Alaska schools, Alabama-Huntsville, Michigan Tech, Ferris State and other undermanned teams. But the numbers are fun to look at. UMD finished 11^th nationwide, scoring 3.11 goals per game. BGSU finished 8^th at 3.30. On the other side of the ledger, UMD was sixth nationally in goals allowed per game at 2.00, while the Falcons were second only to Minnesota State, surrendering a paltry 1.82 per contest. The two teams split the special teams battle, with Duluth having the more potent power play and Bowling Green the stingier penalty kill.

Minnesota-Duluth is the more prospect laden team and most prospect hounds are familiar with former Dallas first rounder Riley Tufte and former second round blueliners Dylan Samberg (Winnipeg) and Scott Perunovich (St. Louis). Perunovich tied for the team scoring lead with unheralded sophomore center Justin Richards, the latter of whom played a depth role in last year’s title run. Perunovich can be a bit of a one-way defender, but he goes that well (offense, clearly) well. Another fun bulldog to watch for is Minnesota draft pick Nick Swaney, whose tenacious play belies his lean frame. The puck skills also give him a fun factor. Philadelphia pick Noah Cates may have had a greater impact in Team USA at the las WJC than he typically does for UMD, but he grinds and plays with strong pace.

On the other hand, the Bowling Green lineup is relatively anonymous on the national level, but both Max Johnson and Brandon Kruse, the latter a Vegas draft pick, exceeded 40 points this year, and the lack of star power is not an indication of a lack of talent. Defender Alec Rauhauser has a long history of starting the attack from the blueline and his offensive knowhow and extra-large frame could lead to NHL offers, while netminder Ryan Bednard was spectacular as a junior and may be coerced to leave school early to sign with Florida, which drafted towards the end of the 2015 draft. No disrespect to UMD goalie Hunter Shepard, who too the reins on last year’s title run, and was recently named MVP of the Bulldogs charge to the NCHC tournament title, but BGSU might have a slight edge between the pipes.

Prediction: I smell an upset here. There always seems to be one fourth seed which eliminates a regional first seed. There is no reason why it shouldn’t be Bowling Green State knocking off the defending champs from Minnesota-Duluth.

As we do not know which schools will go on from the first round of the NCAA tournament to the regional finals and the Frozen Four after that, we have provided predictions of the first round, so know is the time to double down and see the tournament through to the, at least for one school, glorious finish.

Presented without comment:

West Regional Final: St. Cloud State over Ohio State

Northeast Regional Final: Clarkson over UMass (Amherst)

East Regional Final: Northeastern over Minnesota State (Mankato)

Midwest Regional Final: Quinnipiac over Bowling Green State

Frozen Four Semifinals: St. Cloud State over Clarkson

Frozen Four Semifinals: Northeastern over Quinnipiac

NCAA Championship: NORTHEASTERN over ST. CLOUD STATE

Dropping the puck on the 2018-19 NCAA season – Part 2 – Hockey East, NCHC, Big 10

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 17:54:50 +0000

In yesterday’s look at the NCAA season that is slowly cracking open. We touched upon the Atlantic 10, WCHA, and ECAC conferences. While national champions have come from the latter two conferences in recent years, there is no doubting that the strength of the collegiate game lies in the three conferences discussed here.

Hockey East

While some of the more well-known traditional powerhouses are based in the northeast, the vaunted Hockey east conference had a down year last season and seem to be in line for a repeat (in relative terms) this year. There are teams that were also-rans last year and who will likely continue to be league doormats this year. Chief among those is Vermont. Outside of leading scorer, who left school early to sign an ELC with Tampa, the majority of last year’s roster has returned, but the roster was not a strong one. There are three players who have been drafted by NHL clubs on the roster, but none has yet made a strong case that they are worthy of high-level professional careers after leaving the Catamounts. If there is a player to watch, it is junior captain Matt Alvaro, the leading returning scorer. Despite their conference schedule opener, in which they shut out Boston University by a 4-0 total, Merrimack will be in tough to be a factor as the year draws out. Defenseman Jonathan Kovacevic, a Winnipeg draft pick, plays a strong two-way game, but each of the top four point getters from last year have moved on and the team will need younger players to step up and contribute in ways they never have. The early season results are promising, but it is far too early to assume the growth is real. That said, netminder Craig Pantano was strong in partial duty last year and may be the type of unsung hero the Warriors need to stay competitive. New Hampshire used to be a staple at the NCAA conference, but they have been on the outside looking in for each of the last five years. Unlike the other bottom feeding systems, the Wildcats have a few impressive players available to them. Sharks’ pick Mike Robinson barely played last year as a freshman, but he seems to have a grip on the job early on and has performed well so far. Athletic Panthers’ prospect Max Gildon leads the blueline, and senior captain Marcus Vela (San Jose) is the center-piece of the offensive attack. Joining the attack will be veterans Ara Nazarian, Liam Blackburn, and Charlie Kelleher.

In the next rung of teams in Hockey East, we can look at UConn. Still a relative neophyte to the upper rungs, the Huskies are only in their fifth season in the conference, after migrating from the Atlantic. They are an interesting team in that the majority of their players of note are European-raised players, including their top two netminders, Adam Huska (NYR) and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh), blueliner Philip Nyberg (Buf), and forwards Ruslan Iskhakov (NYI) and Jachym Kondelik (Nsh). A few scoring forwards of note who have not been drafted include a pair of juniors in big Benjamin Freeman and Alexandre Payusov. A seeming concussion sustained by Iskhakov in the season’s second game could be a big setback to the team if he is unable to recover in a speedy fashion. The Maine Black Bears were seemingly ready to get back on the upswing, if not quite reach the heights that the program has in the past thirty years, which has seen them crowned NCAA champs twice, and reach seven other Frozen Fours. Unfortunately, days before the opening game, defender Patrick Holway, a Detroit pick, left the team due to unstated personal issues. In his absence, the team will lean more heavily on senior Rob Michel, the team captain, and sophomore Brady Keeper, both of whom have two-way bonafides. Up front, the team will rely on Detroit pick Chase Pearson to generate offense, and he will be joined by freshman Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup, one of the top scorers in the USHL last year. More than anything, though, Maine’s hopes will rest on the crease work on Boston pick Jeremy Swayman, who was stellar as a freshman, earning Hockey East All-Rookie team honors and playing for Team USA in the WJC. He needs to be at least as good again for the school to have designs on a Tournament berth.

Next up are a couple of Massachusetts schools in UMass and UMass-Lowell. The UMass-Lowell River Hawks have been a solid contender ever since Norm Bazin took over the head coaching duties of a floundering program in 2011-12. They rarely get the press they deserve as they tend to lack in high profile, drafted players. With only four drafted players at present – only one of whom was taken before the sixth round, expect the team to be a sleeper again. Most of their top scorers return, led by Kenneth Hausinger, Ryan Dmowski, and Ryan Lohin (TB). The team has seen more turnover at the blueline, but Croix Evingson (Wpg) is slated to take a step forward, while Detroit pick Seth Barton has gotten his collegiate career off to a good start. Swedish puck mover Mattias Goransson could also garner NHL looks. Also, while Christoffer Hernberg had the lion’s share of the goaltending workload last year, Rangers pick Tyler Wall seems to have the coaches’ trust this time around. UMass Amherst does not have the recent success of Lowell to look back to, but they do have one of the top prospects in the collegiate game on the roster in Cale Makar (Col). The talented blueliner was strong last year, both as a freshman for the Minutemen as well as for Team Canada in the WJC, and should be even better this year, in what is likely his final season on campus. He is joined on the blueline by Mario Ferraro (SJ) and Marc Del Gaizo, both skilled puck movers. The forwards are less imposing as a group, but most of the big producers return from last year, led by Mitchell Chaffee, John Leonard (SJ), and Oliver Chau, who has missed the start of the season due to illness. A couple of exciting freshmen in Bobby Trivigno and Anthony Del Gaizo (Marc’s older brother), coming off strong USHL campaigns, make the team more of a scoring threat. Incumbent starting netminder Matt Murray returns, and he will be challenged by Finnish freshman Filip Lindberg.

Staying in the state of Massachusetts, powerhouses BC and BU have both gotten off to lousy starts to their respective seasons, but both have far too much talent up and down the roster not to expect brighter days ahead. Boston College may have the most deserved pessimism among the two, having scored only five goals in their first three games. Toronto pick Joseph Woll has as much talent as any collegiate netminder and he should keep the Eagles in most games, but he will need help. The most likely offensive presence is in the form of freshman Oliver Wahlstrom, a top draft pick of the Islanders and a pure sniper if such a beast exists. Another freshman with the burden of great expectations is Minnesota pick Jack McBain. Among returning forwards, Logan Hutsko (Fla), David Cotton (Car) and Graham McPhee (Edm) are the most consistent offensive threats. The talented and undersized Jacob Tortora could also take a step forward. The blueline lacks a true dynamic two-way threat, but Michael Karow (Ari) and Casey Fitzgerald (Buf) can both hold their own and Michael Kim is a good college player. Boston University also has a star between the pipes in Jake Oettinger, a former Dallas first rounder, who has been inconsistent, but with high end flashes in his collegiate career. The Terriers are deepest along the blueline, with five drafted players, all of whom deserve their high press. They are led by co-captain Dante Fabbro (Nsh), and supplemented by skill in David Farrance (Nsh) and Chad Krys (Chi), and more defensively centered defensemen, such as Cam Crotty (Ari) and Kasper Kotkansalo (Det). Up front, there are former first rounders including Shane Bowers (Col) and Joel Farabee (Phi) and later picks who are almost as talented in Patrick Harper (Nsh) and Jake Wise (Chi). Co-Captain Bobo Carpenter, a senior, has long been rumored to be a free agent contract beneficiary after graduation. While they have not done so yet, this team is chock full of players who can beat you on any given night.

Although Northeastern will no longer be able to rely on NCAA superstars Dylan Sikura or Adam Gaudette, they are still loaded with talent up and down the lineup and feature a stud netminder in Cayden Primeau (Mtl). An offensively inclined team, the attack includes assistance from the blueline in the form of Jeremy Davies (NJ), Ryan Shea (Chi), Eric Williams, and freshman Jordan Harris (Mtl). Even absent Gaudette and Sikura, the Huskies feature freshman Tyler Madden (Vancouver) and Matt Filipe (Car) up front, in addition to proven producers including Zach Solow, Brandon Hawkins, Grant Jozefek, and many more. In a conference full of outstanding goaltenders, it should be no surprise that our top ranked team, Providence, has one of their own in Hayden Hawkey (Edm), who is more than just a fantastic hockey name. Like with Northeastern, the Friars get a lot of offense from the blueline, led in their case by Jacob Bryson (Buf), Ben Mirageas (NYI) and Spenser Young. The Friars can also roll three solid scoring lines if everyone performs up to expectations. Philadelphia first rounder Jay O’Brien has been slow to start, but he should acclimate from the prep ranks to Hockey East in short order to take a place of prominence alongside player including Kasper Bjorkqvist (Pit), Brandon Duhaime (Min), Jack Dugan (Veg), Josh Wilkins, and Scott Conway. Any of the last four teams mentioned could feasibly end the year as Hockey East champions and pose legitimate title hopes. But if the last two seasons are any indication, they will have to prove they can hang with the titans from the Midwest.

National Collegiate Hockey Conference

For each of the past three seasons, when it came time to crown a national champion, the last team standing was a member of the NCHC conference. To give an idea at the depth of strength in this conference, the threepeat of sorts was accomplished by three different schools. One of those schools was not Miami University, although RedHawks were a finalist in 2009, their best ever finish. After three losing seasons, for them to threaten the powerhouses atop the conference once league play begins would be a shocker. Florida prospect Karch Bachman, one of the speedier players in the college ranks, may finally be ready to be a legitimate offensive contributor if his first few games are an indication. The team has some talent from the blueline as well, namely Grant Hutton, who is expected to have a few NHL options to choose from at the end of his senior season, and freshman Derek Daschke. The top new recruit though, and Miami’s big hope for the future, is Johnny Gruden, a top line player with the USNTDP last year and a fourth round pick by Ottawa. The team has a number of other solid players dotting the roster, but lacks much in the way of dynamic skill. A team with more higher end talent on the roster but a less cohesive team game is Nebraska-Omaha. Up front, there are offensively inclined forwards sch as Frederik Olofsson (Chicago), Steven Spinner (Washington) and Zach Jordan (watch out for this guy). Colorado pick Tyler Weiss should also be fun to watch, as he was often pigeon-holed into a bottom six role last year in the USNTDP, but his inherent skills suggest a higher ceiling. Pittsburgh draft pick Ryan Jones and Arizona pick Dean Stewart lead the blueline. Incumbent netminder Evan Weninger returns, but his position is not entrenched and Philadelphia prospect Matej Tomek will challenge after leaving North Dakota, where he never got a chance to play.

At this point, Western Michigan is probably also an underdog. Flyers’ prospect Wade Allison has dynamic scoring potential, and is one of, if not my absolute favorite player to watch in the college game, but he has not played since last January due to a lower body injury, and there are only rumors about the imminence of his eventual return. In his absence, St. Louis pick Hugh McGing will play a prominent role in the attack along with free agent Dawson DiPietro and Vegas pick Paul Cotter. Senior Colt Conrad is also auditioning for an NHL contract, after scoring at a point per game pace last year. From the blueline, the player to watch is Mattias Samuelsson, recently a second round pick of Buffalo’s. As he is more of a defensive defenseman, watch for smaller Cam Lee to add to the offense from behind. The squad will need more steadiness in net than they have received of late to launch a strong challenge for postseason play. Colorado College is a team on the rise, but it may be a year too soon to put them near the top. After four seasons with no more than eight victories, they took off with 15 wins last year, and should breach a .500 record this year with continued development from some of their key contributors. Netminder Alex Leclerc is too small to garner NHL interest, but is a very good collegiate goalie. Up front, Florida pick Chris Wilkie is ready to contribute after sitting out last season as a transfer. He joins a quarter of talented upperclassmen in Nicholas Halloran, Mason Bergh, Trey Bradley, and Westin Michaud. I also have my eyes on freshmen Benjamin Copeland and Erik Middendorf, both of whom were overlooked at the draft last year after strong seasons in the USHL. Although the forwards drive the Tigers’ attack, the defensive corps is not without talent, particularly in the forms of Kristian Blumenschein, and Benjamin Israel.

Three years removed from a championship, the North Dakota team that takes the ice today bears little resemblance to the title team. The only players of note with ties to the title are Dallas pick Rhett Gardner, a beefy two-way forward, and Hayden Shaw, a smaller, reliable and non-flashy defender. Hope and indeed expectations for continued contention is drawn from the Fighting Hawks’ recent recruiting classes. The blueline is receiving a talent injection from freshmen Jacob Bernard-Docker and Jonny Tychonick, who were ironically both drafted early by Ottawa last June. They join Colton Poolman, whose game is very reminiscent of brother Tucker’s. Versatile forward Grant Mismash, a Nashville pick, is expected to take his game up a notch up front. The team also needs to figure out which of Adam Scheel or Peter Thome (Clb) will take over as the starter from the departed Cam Johnson. Denver has more connections to their recent title, but now that Dylan Gambrell and Henrik Borgstrom have both turned pro, the core has changed. The team still has the makings of a contender though, with dynamic defender Ian Mitchell (Chi) set to be the main attraction. He is joined by a couple of freshmen blueliners of whom greatness is expected in Slava Demin (Veg) and Sean Comrie. Up front, the team will have to take a committee approach to scoring, as there is skill, but little of it is truly high end. There is a trio of drafted freshmen who could be better than anticipated in Cole Guttman (TB), Mathias Emilio Pettersen (Cgy), and Brett Stapley (Mtl). They join big game hero Jarid Lukosevicius. As with North Dakota, the Pioneers have to answers questions in net, as heralded recruit Filip Larsson is out indefinitely and Devin Cooley, who has taken the reins to start the season, is largely unproven.

The best hope for a fourth different NCHC championship in four seasons is St. Cloud State, which was actually the top ranked team in the country heading into the playoffs last year. There are teams in this conference with more NHL-bound talent than at St. Cloud State, but the Huskies do not lack in that regards either, while they fill in at the edges with a high caliber of support player. Former Montreal first rounder Ryan Poehling is ready to take the next step offensively and breach one point per game. Helping him to fill the nets are Patrick Newell, Robby Jackson, Blake Lizotte, and Easton Brodzinski. The blueline is similarly deep and skilled, led by tiny Jack Ahcan, Nick Perbix (TB), Jon Lizotte (no relation to Blake) and Jimmy Schuldt, who surprised many by ignoring the lure of the NHL after his junior season. Finally, in net, the team is equally comfortable going with David Hrenak (LA) or Jeffrey Smith, both of whom have displayed the ability to stop pucks at an above average rate in the NCAA. Of course, the NCHC could easily claim another title from a repeat champion. Last year’s champions, Minnesota-Duluth, were not expected to make a strong push, as they had a very young roster and were widely thought to be a season or two way from their “window”. Amazingly, only three of their top ten scorers from last year are gone. The blueline returns three sophomores who both spent time on the American WJC squad in Scott Perunovich (StL), Mikey Anderson (LA), and Dylan Samberg (Wpg). Netminder Hunter Shepard is still anonymous, despite his workhorse status on last year’s title run. Up front, former Dallas first rounder Riley Tufte is overdue to breakthrough, as he has been slowly refining his game to the point where he is nearly unstoppable down low. Helping out with the attack will be Peter Krieger, Nick Swaney (Min), and freshman Noah Cates (Phi). This year’s Bulldogs may be even better than last year’s champs.

Big 10

While last season saw the NCHC claim the crown for the third year in a row, it should not be forgotten that each of the other three teams in the Frozen Four came out of the Big 10. Of course, Michigan State was not one of those teams. The Spartans are now 11 years removed from their most recent title. They should see their wins total grow for the third year running, but are still not quite a challenger. They return nine of their top ten scorers from last year and Taro Hirose, Mitch Lewandowski, and Patrick Khodorenko are expected to lead the team once again. As promising as that trio is, it is unclear where the secondary scoring will come from. Starting netminder John Lethemon is good enough to keep MSU in games, but should not be expected to steal too many. After the Spartans, any team could reasonably reach the NCAA tournament, but some are less likely than others. Next up would probably have to be Penn State. It is easy to forget that the Nittany Lions have only been back in the NCAA for six seasons. Most of their top scorers from last year are returning, but the talent level is still something short of dynamic. Chicago pick Evan Barratt could be ready for the next step and Colorado pick Denis Smirnov is probably the most talented of the bunch. Upperclassmen Chase Berger, Brandon Biro, and Nathan Sucese are auditioning for NHL scouts and are productive, if not necessarily exciting players. The blueline is a relative weakspot, led as it is by Cole Hults (LA) and Kris Myllari. In net, Peyton Jones has had a nice career thus far, but it is unclear that he can be anything more than adequate at this level.

Since a pair of Frozen Four appearances earlier in the decade, Minnesota has been a bit of a hit-or-miss team. Last year saw a bit of both, but without second leading scorer Casey Mittelstadt on the team, the Golden Gophers could struggle once again to get back to the top. As always, they are exceptional recruiters, with this year’s star freshmen including Blake McLaughlin (Ana), Sampo Ranta (Col), and the draft eligible blueliner Benjamin Brinkman. Some of the returning players who could be critical include forwards Rem Pitlick (Nsh), Scott Reedy (SJ), Thomas Novak (Nsh), Brent Gates (Ana), and Tyler Sheehy along with blueliners Clayton Phillips (Pit), Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB), and Tyler Nanne (NYR). In the early going it seems that last year’s backup netminder, Mat Robson, has surpassed former starter Eric Schierhorn. If Robson can maintain his performance over the full season such as he has in a part time role, the Gophers could be better than expected. The talent is here, but it needs to come together. Put anther way, Minnesota’s talent with Penn State’s structure could be a front runner. Wisconsin won 20 games in 2016-17 after combining for 12 victories in the two seasons prior, eliciting visions of grandeur. Unfortunately, the team sunk back down to 14 wins last year, prompting a rethink of the team’s standing. The Badgers are a team whose strength is on the blueline with five drafted players – all underclassmen - taking charge. Returning from last year are the physical Tyler Inamoto (Fla), the quiet puck mover Josh Ess (Chi), and offensively inclined puck rusher Wyatt Kalynuk (Phi). Joining them this season are a pair of USNTDP grads in checker Ty Emberson (Ari) and the dynamic K’Andre Miller (NYR), who has superstar potential. Veteran Peter Tischke rounds out the blueline corps. Up front, Wisconsin is not as exciting, but Sean Dhooghe, among the smallest high level players I have ever watched is a joy. Linus Weissbach (Buf) and Max Zimmer (Car) look like they will contribute and I have reasonably optimistic expectations of Tarek Baker as well. Like much of the conference, the Badgers are unsettled in net.

Notre Dame has been to the Frozen Four for both of the last two seasons, but the graduation of Jake Evans, the school’s number three scorer since the turn of the century, will have an impact. That said, the Fighting Irish are constantly restocking, so the team should be a strong competitor once more. Cale Morris was exception in net last year, winning the Mike Richter Award as the top goalie in the nation and will still be very good even if he takes a step back. Big Andrew Peeke (Clb) and mobile Matthew Hellickson (NJ) make a strong start to the blueline while veteran Bobby Nardella along with new recruit Spencer Stastney (Nsh) look like a good second pairing with two way capability. The top players up front include Callahan Burke, Cam Morrison (Col), and Dylan Malmquist. Even big Joe Wegwerth can overcome his stiff hands by being a tank in the opposing crease. Freshmen Jacob Pivonka (NYI), Graham Slaggert, and Alex Steeves could also go a long way to giving the Irish attack the needed depth to succeed. Ohio State does not have the flashy names that dot the rosters of most of the rest of the Big 10, but they have talent up and down the team and can win in many ways. They seem to be using a rotation in net, with both incumbent starter Sean Romeo and the younger Tommy Nappier in line to play a good amount. None of their key blueliners have been drafted, but any of Wyatt Ege, Grant Gabriele, Matt Miller, Gordi Myer, or Sasha Larocque can hurt you. There is a smattering of NHL interest up front, such as power forward Dakota Joshua (Tor), playmaker Carson Meyer (Clb) who transferred from Miami, smaller dynamo Mason Jobst and Hobey Baker candidate Tanner Taczynski (Phi). I could go on, but that might be enough to get back to the Frozen Four.

As good as Notre Dame and Ohio State are, not to mention Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Penn State, if the Michigan Wolverines get even halfway decent work in net, they could be the best team in the country. Quinn Hughes was a top ten pick last year by Vancouver and is as dynamic as blueliners get. This will be his last tune-up before moving to the NHL. First line center Josh Norris had a fine freshman season and then was one of the main pieces moving from San Jose to Ottawa in the Erik Karlsson trade. Will Lockwood (Van) is healthy again and provides an agitating, skilled presence. The Pastujov brothers, Nick (NYI) and Michael, provide strength and skill up front. Minnesota pick Nicholas Boka is a talented puck mover from the blueliner who can get the puck moving in the right direction when Hughes is catching his breath. Luke Martin (Car) and Joseph Cecconi (Dal) has shutdown qualities. Brendan Warren (Phi) can contribute offense while playing the tough minutes up front. Moving down the lineup there are other surprises in store as well. Ohio State may be a safer bet, but Michigan has the best chance among any team in the nation, to dominate any given night.