Daniel Sedin – McKeen's Hockey

Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes

Robert Howard — Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:59:46 +0000

Paraphrasing Brian Burke, he once famously declared otherwise knowledgeable, experienced GM’s lose their minds at the trade deadline and free agency on July 1^st. Making their greatest mistakes at the trade deadline, followed closely by free agency. In fantasy hockey, the trade deadline is also fraught with ill-advised deals, and a heightened level of desperation in search of a championship, but there is an argument to be made that the first ten games of the fantasy hockey season produce some interesting trade opportunities. Surprising results from a small sample of games can lead to some itchy GM fingers in the ‘irrational exuberance” of the excitement of another season.

However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.

Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.

Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.

Brent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.

Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.

Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.

Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).

Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.

Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.

Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.

In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.

The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.

“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”

Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.

Colton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.

Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games.

Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.

Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.

He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.

Detroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.

Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.

The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.

The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed.

2015 NHL Playoffs: Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:25:50 +0000

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames

These are two teams that at the start of the season not many people would have predicted would be playoff teams come April and yet here they are. Canucks GM Jim Benning has done an excellent job refreshing not only the Canucks roster but their prospects as well. The addition of free agents Radim Vrbata and Ryan Miller continues to pay dividends and Nick Bonino has proven to be a more than capable second line centre. The 100 point seasons and even 80 point seasons may be history for the Sedin twins, but they still lead the offense in Vancouver. Vrbata was able to keep pace with the Sedins but there is a drop off after the top three. Bonino, Chris Higgins, Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen provide some secondary scoring while Bo Horvat and Shawn Matthias provide some depth. Zack Kassian who is sidelined with a back injury is a player who has the ability to be a difference maker with his physical play and offensive power game, he will be missed. The Canucks defense is led by Alex Edler who has rebounded from a disastrous season to regain his forum. Veteran defenders Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis provide stability while youngsters Chris Tanev, Yannick Weber and Luca Sbisa have all taken on big roles on the blueline and not looked out of place. The big question for the Canucks is in goal. Ryan Miller missed significant time with a knee injury before playing the final regular season game but was “rusty”. Miller is 34 and was unable to deliver the performance in the playoffs last year that the St. Louis Blues were looking for but he is still their best option. Should the Canucks turn to Eddie Lack instead he has proven to be a capable player who also gives his team confidence.

The Calgary Flames have had an impressive season and continue to defy the odds and nay sayers. Not expected to be a competitive team while they continue to rebuild, Coach Bob Hartley has this team playing hard every night and they just never take a night off. Even after Mark Giordano went down for the season and everyone thought the bubble had finally burst, they still kept winning. Up front the Flames are a score by committee team that lacks a super-star presence but rookie sensation Johnny Gaudreau is trending in that direction. Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler complete the top line, after that the offense drops off significantly as Lance Bouma, David Jones and Joe Colborne provide the secondary scoring. After the top line, most of Calgary’s offence is generated from their defence despite the loss of their best defender Mark Giordano. Kris Russell, Denis Wideman and T.J. Brodie are all good mobile defenders who transition the puck so efficiently into the offensive zone for the Flames. Jonas Hiller can expect to be the go to goalie for the Flames and he should expect to see a lot of shots this series as the Flames struggle both in puck possession and on faceoffs. The Flames have been a team with purpose and a destiny, and since neither team was expected to be in the playoffs at the start of the season, they are both playing with house money and really have nothing to lose. While the advanced stats suggest the Flames poor possession numbers will eventually cost them, it may not happen until the second round.

Top Ten Vancouver Canucks

Henrik Sedin – While he may not win another scoring title, he can still provide first line offensive numbers
Daniel Sedin – Like his brother, he has his name on a scoring title and can still provide big time points
Radim Vrbata – The next best option in Vancouver drives the offense on the second line
Nick Bonino – Replaced Ryan Kesler as second line centre and can match his regular season performance, but the Canucks will really miss Kesler in the playoffs
Chris Higgins – Finally had a healthy season and found some consistent scoring
Alex Burrows – Agitator supreme who when playing with the Sedins can provide offense too
Alex Edler – Had a disastrous season under Coach John Tortorella and has rebounded nicely
Bo. Horvat – Impressive rookie season, looks to be a potential future Ryan Kesler
Ryan Miller – Even if he is healthy can he deliver in the playoffs?
Jannik Hansen – Speedy Dane provides solid two-way play

Top Ten Calgary Flames

Jiri Hudler – Quietly finished the season among the top ten scorers in the league
Johnny Gaudreau – Johnny Hockey never slowed down coming into the NHL from College, in fact he only got better and better. Can he find another level?
Sean Monahan – Boring Sean Monahan improved drastically on his impressive rookie season
Dennis Wideman – in the absence of Giordano, he has stepped up as the number one defenseman
T.J. Brodie – smooth skating defenseman is Flames best puck-moving rearguard
Lance Bouma – The hardest working man in hockey, Bouma may not have elite skill but the Flames love his compete and physicality
Kris Russell – Bounced from Columbus to Blues before finding a home in Calgary, he was a steal
Joe Colborne – The Leafs lost Colborne to waivers instead of Colton Orr and he has fit in nicely with Monahan, another steal!
Jonas Hiller – Lost the starting job in Anaheim in last years playoffs, has a chance at redemption
Mikael Backlund – Lost two months to injury but still had a solid season

Sedins Explained – Introduction to Player Usage Charts

Rob Vollman — Sat, 09 Aug 2014 21:09:41 +0000

Understanding Context with Player Usage Charts

When studying hockey statistics, context is everything. It's common knowledge how a player's stats can be greatly influenced by his playing conditions. Factors such as their line mates, opponents, and goaltenders, not to mention the manpower situation and the score, can all skew a player's stats one way or the other. Player Usage Charts put a great deal of that information into simple graphical form.

For example, if you've ever wondered how Henrik and Daniel Sedin could go from below the point-a-game rate in their mid-20s, all the way up to sudden Art Ross, Hart Memorial, and Ted Lindsay award winners in their older age, and then right back down after Vigneault's departure, then look no further than Player Usage Charts.

Years ago these charts reveal Vigneault's tendency towards a style of aggressive zone-matching that results in players like Manny Malhotra getting all the shifts that start in the defensive zone and Ryan Kesler taking on all the top lines, thus leaving the Sedins to start their shifts primarily in the offensive zone and against fairly average competition. Their offensively potent seasons were as predictable then as Mats Zuccarello's are now.

Even though Player Usage Charts can eloquently show how a team's players are being deployed, there's a lot of complexity under the hood. A lot of raw data is mined from the NHL's official game files, and organized into each concise picture.

Ideally the end result is easy to understand with very minimal explanation. The horizontal axis features the player's offensive zone start percentage, which is the percentage of all non-neutral shifts started in the offensive zone (not counting on-the-fly line changes).

A common misconception is that it represents the percentage of all shifts started in the offensive zone, but it actually ignores those in the neutral zone, and is therefore perhaps poorly named (like most hockey statistics). Think of it more as a representation of whether a player is used primarily for his offensive or defensive talents.

Getting a lot of offensive zone starts will result in more favorable scoring totals, and for very obvious reasons. Starting in the offensive zone means that a faceoff victory can lead directly to scoring opportunity, whereas winning in the defensive zone still required someone carry it out and down into the offensive zone before a shot could even be attempted. It's therefore no surprise that each extra offensive zone start has been calculated to be worth an extra 0.8 shots in a player's shot-based plus/minus.

On the vertical axis, you'll find the player's Quality of Competition. This can be measured in a variety of ways, such as using the average ice time of one's opponents, but he results are normally the same. Here it is being calculated based on the average plus/minus of one's opponents over 60 minutes, except that it is based on attempted shots instead of goals. Doing that filters out the effect of goaltending, and all that extra data serves to reduce the impact of a few bad bounces.

Regardless of which measurement is used, those who face the top lines are always at the top of the chart, and those who face mostly depth lines are at the bottom. Of course, bear in mind that these charts reflect the entire 82-game schedule, whereas line matching is only realistically possible on home ice where the coach has the final change.

Finally, there are the big shaded circles around each player's name. These names sometimes include asterisks, incidentally. A prefix means the player spent the first part of the season somewhere else, and a postfix means the player finished the season somewhere else. Given how some teams, like Los Angeles, start a lot more shifts in the offensive zone than others, like Toronto, it's important to take note of which players stats might have been steered one way or another.

As for those circles around the names, they are shaded and sized based on the player's attempted shot-based plus/minus, with two important adjustments. First, it is calculated relative to how the team did without him, so that players on weak teams don't get penalized, and players on great teams have to prove they're not just riding someone's coat tails. Secondly, the size of the bubbles are calculated over 60 minutes in order to neutralize the advantage of those who get more ice time. And remember that all this data is in five-on-five situations only.

Ultimately, a big shaded bubble represents someone whose team attempts a lot more shots than their opponents while he's on the ice and a big white bubble is someone whose team is usually getting badly out-shot. This is important given the correlation between attempted shots and concepts such as zone time and puck possession.

Always remember that the whole point is to establish context, not to claim that one player is better than another. Players are used however they are for a variety of reasons, many of which can be outside their control. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that anyone playing tough minutes in their own zone against top lines should have their white bubbles excused, while we shouldn't necessarily be too impressed by big shaded bubbles if it's for someone who is enjoying easy minutes in the offensive zone and against depth lines.

So what's the bottom line? Players on the left side of the chart are defensive-minded players while those on the right are focused on scoring. Those at the top of the chart are up against the top six, while those at the bottom play against depth lines. These key pieces of information can help put everyone's scoring totals in the proper context, and help predict the season to come.

This being the first season that Player Usage Charts have been included, we have included a brief analysis to help interpret each one. Be especially on the look-out for any player whose scoring may be dependent on favorable playing conditions that are unlikely to continue, or those who blossomed despite a tough assignment.