Daniil Pylenkov – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2026 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #25 Tampa Bay Lightning – Organization Overview – Top 15 Prospects

Sun, 26 Apr 2026 21:58:36 +0000

Sam O'Reilly of the London Knights. Photo by Luke Durda/OHL Images.

Prospect System Rank – 25th (Last Year - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013

The Tampa Bay Lightning operate with a philosophy shared by only a handful of NHL organizations. That's to identify the pieces needed to win now and find a way to put him on the roster no matter the cost. When a team has made the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons and captured two Stanley Cups along the way, few are inclined to question the approach.

The Lightning remain driven by a familiar core that continues to produce at an elite level. With Nikita Kucherov (32), Victor Hedman (35), Brayden Point (29), Andrei Vasilevskiy (31), Jake Guentzel (31), Anthony Cirelli (28), and Brandon Hagel (27) still anchoring the roster, Tampa Bay is clearly intent on extending its championship window for as long as possible. True to form, general manager Julien BriseBois once again targeted a specific addition at the trade deadline, acquiring veteran forward Corey Perry for a 2028 second-round pick. While Tampa Bay still retains most of its selections in the 2026 draft — missing only a first- and fourth-round pick — the organization is on the verge of entering a fourth consecutive draft without a first-round selection.

Despite the lack of high-end draft capital, the Lightning still features four prospects within McKeen’s Top 200 rankings. Leading the group is Sam O’Reilly (62nd), acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in a 2025 trade. Now in his fourth and final season of junior hockey, the forward is producing at just over a point-per-game pace across his OHL career. He is joined by fellow OHL standouts Marco Mignosa and Ethan Czata, both of whom continue to show encouraging development with their respective clubs.

Perhaps the most intriguing name on the rise is 2025 fourth-round selection Benjamin Rautiainen (97th). The Finnish forward has broken out in Liiga this season, emerging as one of the league’s top offensive producers. Whether these prospects remain in the system long enough to make a lasting impact is always an open question in Tampa Bay. But if history is any indication, the Lightning will continue prioritizing contention and remain a factor in the playoff picture for a few more seasons.

NHL	RNK	PLAYER	POS	AGE	HT/WT	2024-25 TM	GP	G(W)	A(L)	PTS(GAA)	PIM(SPCT)
TB	1	Sam O'Reilly	C	20	6-1/190	Ldn-Kit (OHL)	56	29	42	71	22
TB	2	Benjamin Rautiainen	C	20	6-0/175	Tappara (Fin-Liiga)	59	25	52	77	20
TB	3	Ethan Gauthier	RW	21	5-11/175	Syracuse (AHL)	56	12	15	27	10
TB	4	Dylan Duke	LW	23	5-10/180	Syracuse (AHL)	72	32	27	59	42
TB	4	Dylan Duke	LW	23	5-10/180	Tampa Bay (NHL)	1	0	0	0	0
TB	5	Ethan Czata	C	19	6-2/180	Niagara (OHL)	63	25	28	53	79
TB	5	Ethan Czata	C	19	6-2/180	Syracuse (AHL)	3	0	0	0	17
TB	6	Daniil Pylenkov	D	25	6-1/195	Dynamo Moskva (KHL)	64	9	45	54	22
TB	7	Jayson Shaugabay	RW	21	5-9/155	Minnesota Duluth (NCAA)	40	11	32	43	18
TB	8	Maxim Groshev	RW	24	6-2/195	Syracuse (AHL)	58	3	18	21	22
TB	8	Maxim Groshev	RW	24	6-2/195	Tampa Bay (NHL)	2	0	1	1	0
TB	9	Everett Baldwin	D	19	6-0/180	Saint John (QMJHL)	62	15	29	44	46
TB	10	Joe Connor	LW	21	5-10/175	Northeastern (NCAA)	36	13	14	27	20
TB	11	Jan Golicic	D	19	6-5/190	Gat-BLB (QMJHL)	57	5	39	44	38
TB	12	Noah Steen	LW	21	6-1/195	Orebro (SHL)	52	12	10	22	18
TB	12	Noah Steen	LW	21	6-1/195	Syracuse (AHL)	5	1	0	1	5
TB	13	Marco Mignosa	RW	21	6-0/170	Soo Greyhounds (OHL)	65	35	54	89	33
TB	14	Ethan Samson	D	22	6-1/195	LV-Syr (AHL)	40	5	13	18	24
TB	15	Lucas Mercuri	C	24	6-3/190	Syracuse (AHL)	67	14	12	26	132

1. Sam O'Reilly, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Sam O’Reilly is going to need a bigger trophy case with two OHL Championships, one Memorial Cup, and a World Juniors bronze medal, plus a chance to earn more with a surging Rangers squad. Coming back from being one of Canada’s more productive forwards at the WJC, Sam was traded to London’s rival Kitchener, and he hasn’t missed a beat, going well over a point per game with his new team. O’Reilly is no stranger to being traded, as this past offseason, he was dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Isaac Howard. There is a lot to love with the potential fit with Jon Cooper for O’Reilly as a utility middle-six forward. He’s a very projectable player with good smarts and the ability to find loose pucks, earning him points wherever he goes. O’Reilly might be a rare player who doesn’t have a weakness in his game, finding success in all three zones, particularly in his own end. I could see the Bolts bringing him up to the NHL to start next season, over bringing a Sabourin or Curtis Douglas back, even if just on a rotational basis with an AHL conditioning stint mixed in.

2. Benjamin Rautiainen, C, Tappara (Liiga)

Benjamin Rautiainen has emerged as one of the most compelling late-bloomer stories in Finland this season. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2025 NHL Draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning after going undrafted twice, Rautiainen has taken a significant step forward in his age-20 Liiga campaign. After posting 33 points in 50 games last year, he led the league scoring, and his 77 points broke the U21 scoring record set by Saku Koivu and the first 70-point season in almost 20 years. He earned Liiga MVP honours for his efforts. The growth in his game is tangible. Long criticized for perimeter habits and average explosiveness, Rautiainen now plays with far more pace and conviction. His edge work and agility have improved, allowing him to manipulate defenders off the rush and operate as a primary transition carrier. A natural playmaker, he controls entries, delays effectively, and attacks the middle with deception. While not overly physical, he protects pucks efficiently and competes more consistently away from them. Given Tampa Bay’s development track record, Rautiainen projects as a legitimate middle six NHL winger with offensive upside if his skating continues trending upward.

3. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Gauthier is enjoying a moderately successful season with the AHL's Syracuse Crunch as a pro hockey freshman. He's the youngest player on that team, and they're fairly deep at forward, but he's still finding ways to earn his minutes and chip in offensively. A former first overall pick in the QMJHL Entry Draft, his highly touted scoring abilities more or less came as advertised, playing a key role for the Canadian team that won gold at the 2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, and then leading Drummondville in playoff scoring as they captured the league title in 2024. And yet, it could simultaneously still be argued that he hasn’t fully lived up to his potential, as he will sometimes go quiet for long stretches. The quality of his shot is undeniable, but he can struggle to find enough time and space to properly utilize it, usually because of a mix of both effort and elusiveness. If Gauthier can smooth out the rough edges in his game that could clear the way for him to become a feared NHL goalscorer.

4. Dylan Duke, LW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

It is impossible not to like and respect Duke with the way that he plays hockey. He is a mix between a buzzsaw and a bulldog, and he instantly becomes the hardest working player on the ice regardless of where or when he goes over the boards. He’s utterly fearless and relentless for a smaller forward, pinballing around the ice as he inserts himself into the play however he can. It also needs to be said, however, that there’s a certain kind of brilliance to how he gets inside and under opposing players to win battles, and he has a real sixth sense for getting to rebounds and loose pucks before anyone else does. He’s leading the Syracuse Crunch in goals this season, and it’s no surprise because he’s so in tune with himself and so hyperaware of what his strengths are. Will Duke’s success carry over to the NHL one day? Probably not to the same degree, because guys like him usually have a hard time sustaining it and surviving the grind. But bet against him at your own peril.

5. Ethan Czata, C, Niagara IceDogs (OHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

The Niagara Ice Dogs have been pretty mediocre through late January and February, but Czata has been a huge bright spot. His production has skyrocketed, scoring in a variety of ways from crashing the net to using his heavy wrister as well as retrieving pucks from down low to sustain play in the offensive zone. He’s progressed quite well since his debut OHL season and is looking like he’ll make the NHL in some sort of capacity. His consistency of reads with the puck and decrease in turnovers have been very noticeable from his earlier days with the Dogs. The Bolts have a sneaky good find at pick 56 in 2024 with Czata. At the next level, he’s a guy who can score in different ways and have an impact in front of the net even when not scoring. His big hits and smarts will help him fit in well in a gritty Tampa Bay bottom six.

6. Daniil Pylenkov, D, Dymano Moscow (KHL)

It's tough to find any major holes in Pylenkov’s game. The former seventh round draft pick has improved year over year and is thriving in his role as the number one defenceman for Dynamo Moskova. He lacks the flash and high-end skill to be a high-end player in the NHL, but his patience and intelligence allow him to be effective in all areas of the ice, in all situations. He facilitates well along the blue line, running the first power play unit, and can activate in the offensive zone playing as a fourth winger when called upon. His positioning is sound, shutting down plays in the neutral zone and keeping forwards to the outside. In the defensive end, he patrols the middle of the ice and battles hard in the corners and in front of the net. On breakouts, he is always in a supportive position and can snap passes up ice to start the rush. At 25 years old, his development is likely complete and if he does come over to North America, his game is probably good enough to slot into a bottom pair role. This past season, though, he signed a two-year extension, which likely prevents him from coming to North America before he turns 27, if he even planned on doing so.

7. Jayson Shaugabay, RW, University of Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA)

Shaugabay’s development over the last couple of seasons has pushed his name up the list of Tampa Bay Lightning prospects to watch. He has been on an upward trajectory each year since being drafted, culminating in his second NCAA season being his first point-per-game season since he played high school hockey in 2022-23. He has played with the Plante brothers with the University of Minnesota-Duluth, which brings into question whether he can lead his own line and pull his own weight, while maintaining his point-production. He’s certainly trending in the right direction towards becoming an NHL player for a Lightning organization that has consistently found such talents in the later rounds. Shaugabay is a playmaker with a high hockey IQ and excellent stickhandling chops to push the pace. He needs to continue improving his skating ability and bulking up in the NCAA to improve his odds at making the NHL level. If he can continue to do that, he projects as a third line scoring winger. However, he is right on that line when it comes to projecting him, as he could go on to be an AHL all-star who struggles to find a role in the NHL.

8. Maxim Groshev, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Groshev is easily one of the most fascinating prospects in Tampa Bay’s system, primarily because he shifted from playing forward to playing defence at age 23, which is almost unheard of that far into a player’s career. What’s even more surprising is just how well the switch has gone for him, fitting into the Syracuse Crunch’s blueline almost seamlessly, and even holding his own for a couple of games up with the Lightning. He has a genuine knack for breaking pucks out of his own end, and he isn’t shy about taking calculated risks to do so. Maybe defence is the position that he was always destined to play, because he was often quite frustrating to watch as a forward, struggling to fully understand how best to use his size and athletic gifts to make a positive difference. Groshev is a restricted free agent at the end of this season, and it would be an absolute shame if he and the Lightning didn’t agree to terms about bringing him back, if for no other reason than to see how his story unfolds from here, this close to the NHL.

9. Everett Baldwin, D, Saint John's Sea Dogs (QMJHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

After spending last season in the United States, playing mostly in the USHS prep circuit, Baldwin decided to commit to the QMJHL for the 2025–2026 season before ultimately joining Providence College in the NCAA the following year. It was a smart move for Baldwin, who presently plays around 20 minutes each game. The young defender finished with 44 points in 62 games, a solid production, finishing ninth in defensive scoring in the QMJHL. Baldwin is an agile skater, very mobile with and without the puck. He likes to lead the charge offensively, and he supports attacks well. He is not the most creative defender, but he shows great intelligence with the puck and does well to funnel pucks to the middle of the ice, using his mobility to his advantage to evade pressure. The physical side of the game is a work in progress, but the frame suggests that it could be there sooner than later. Since being drafted last year, Baldwin has improved a lot in all aspects of the game. Will it be enough for him to play in the NHL? His play at the NCAA level will give a better indication of that.

10. Joe Connor, LW, Northeastern University (NCAA)

Being a crafty, shoot-first winger who excels in transition, Joe Connor is putting together a solid resume at Northeastern University. His stick handling is used so well when he’s entering the zone, making him and any teammate that trails him, deadly off the rush. Connor also has his deadly shot as a weapon, specializing in set ups off the faceoff. He isn’t terribly fast, but he is fearless as his 5-foot-10 body has been tossed around by the Hockey East and Connor is right back on his feet after every hit. Connor is annoying to defencemen when he gets around them to receive an outlet pass, but can have a habit of flying up too early and becoming a non-factor in the defensive zone. Additionally, he can be a bit of a wild man when passing, needing to gain better vision and accuracy in the offensive zone. Though his game is chaotic, Joe Connor is an intriguing player who will at least play meaningfully in Syracuse, Tampa’s AHL squad, soon. He will receive even more promising development to eventually make the NHL. Just look at how many homegrown guys the Lightning have on their roster now.

11. Jan Golicic, D, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

The massive Slovenian defender has had another good year in the QMJHL, especially following a trade to the Armada. He brings physical play and improved confidence with the puck.

12. Noah Steen, LW, Örebro HK (SHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

Steen is having his best season to date in the SHL. The Norwegian winger is a hard worker who projects as a potential bottom six forward for Tampa.

13. Marco Mignosa, RW, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Now in his overage OHL season with the Soo Greyhounds, Mignosa continues to improve his all-around game. Upgrading his speed and explosiveness got him drafted last year.

14. Ethan Samson, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Recently acquired by Lightning, Samson is a former WHL standout whose development had stalled in the Flyers' system. He needs to play his way into Tampa’s long-term plans.

15. Lucas Murcuri, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Mercuri's rights were acquired by the Lightning after Carolina had decided that they would not be signing him following his four years at UMass. The big power forward has found an immediate role in the AHL with Syracuse as a Tom Wilson lite, lending promise to a potential fourth line role with Tampa.

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 15 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #29

The McKeen's Scouting Team — Sat, 20 Sep 2025 20:03:10 +0000

Sam O'Reilly of the London Knights. Photo by Luke Durda/OHL Images

Prospect System Rank – 29th (May 2025 - 26th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013

The Tampa Bay Lightning are fresh off an eighth straight playoff berth and haven’t skipped a beat despite bidding farewell to long-time captain Steven Stamkos. They finished with the NHL’s seventh-highest point total, still powered by the familiar core of Nikita Kucherov (31), Victor Hedman (31), Brayden Point (29), Andrei Vasilevskiy (30), and now newcomer Jake Guentzel (30).

True to form, GM Julien BriseBois continued to prioritize the present over the future, dealing his 2025 first-round pick along with 2026 and 2027 first rounders to bolster the middle six. It’s a familiar trade-off in Tampa—maximize the window now, worry about tomorrow later.

That approach has inevitably taken a toll on the prospect pool. In addition to the graduation of Connor Geekie, the offseason saw their top-ranked prospect, Isaac Howard, moved out, which was a necessary decision given his unwillingness to sign with the club. In return, they acquired Sam O’Reilly, who now claims the top spot in their pipeline.

Beyond O’Reilly, the depth is thin. 2023 second-rounder Ethan Gauthier has joined the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch alongside Dylan Duke and Niko Huuhtanen. While all three continue to develop, none project as immediate difference-makers at the NHL level.

Years of trading premium picks for playoff reinforcements have left the organization reliant on uncovering late-round steals and shrewd external acquisitions to keep the system afloat.

The upside? The Lightning’s core remains firmly in its prime, and as long as it does, the team’s championship window stays wide open. BriseBois is all-in once again, betting that this veteran group has another Stanley Cup run left in them—even if it means the cupboard stays bare.

Tampa Bay Lightning Top-15 Prospects

1 - Sam O'Reilly

Acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Isaac Howard, O’Reilly emerged as one of the OHL’s premier two-way players. The offensive numbers didn’t completely pop off, but the details in O’Reilly’s game greatly improved. He looked noticeably quicker and stronger, allowing him to become an elite shutdown pivot who can protect leads late in games and kill penalties. He’s a very intelligent player who shows great promise as a playmaker too; he’s patient and poised with the puck. Next year, O’Reilly will be counted upon to be the go-to offensive player for London and that will be terrific for his development. His projection hasn’t likely changed from being a quality middle six pivot who can play in all situations, however, as the physical tools continue to be upgraded, he becomes more and more likely to reach that projection.

2 - Ethan Gauthier

Ethan Gauthier was the first QMJHL player taken in the 2023 NHL Draft, selected 37th overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning. After a point-per-game draft year with Sherbrooke, he was traded to Drummondville, where he helped capture a QMJHL title. In 2023-2024, the right winger produced 71 points in 64 games and 25 points in 19 playoff games, finishing second in postseason scoring. His 2024–25 season followed a similar pattern with 62 points in 50 games, plus 12 in seven playoff contests, ranking second in playoff points per game. He also appeared in all five of team Canada’s World Junior games in 2025, and even played three games in the AHL with Syracuse. Gauthier has, so far, developed as expected. He has maintained a high work ethic while showing his reliability as an elite junior goal scorer, with 20 goals in 26 games over his last two playoff campaigns. His lethal one-timer can be fired from anywhere with impressive accuracy. He is also a strong player who imposes his power forward style. Next season, he will likely play full time with Syracuse in the AHL, and a lot of questions will be answered, especially regarding his skating and pace.

3 - Max Crozier

It’s been a slow burn for Crozer, a fourth-round selection out of the USHL in 2019. He played four years at Providence College and has now played two seasons split between the AHL and NHL level. At every stop, he’s been a highly effective two-way defender and it seems like only a matter of time before Crozier is patrolling Tampa’s blueline permanently. When he played for the Lightning, he performed well, but depth has kept him with Syracuse. However, he recently signed a new deal, and Crozier is also no longer exempt from waivers next season, suggesting his roster spot might be locked up. Crozier took a big step forward offensively in the AHL this past year. He’s quarterbacking the power play. He’s still bringing it physically and operating as a shutdown defender. The big right shot defender was among the league leaders in ice time this past year, averaging over 25 minutes per game. Needless to say, Crozier is NHL ready.

4 - Ethan Czata

The physically intense, two-way forward was a second-round selection of the Lightning this past year and has already been rewarded with his ELC, a rarity this quickly for players drafted outside of the first round. It’s a testament to how the Lightning view Czata as a potentially elite third line player in the future. He’s versatile thanks to a well-rounded skill set and the ability to play any forward position. He’s physically assertive and projects as an above average defensive player at the NHL level. Offensively, he started the past year well for the Niagara IceDogs but faded a bit down the stretch. This season, he’ll look to become more consistent with the puck and should receive a ton of ice time for an improving Niagara team. He’ll also look to improve his finishing ability, an area that needs refining, especially given how many looks he earns in tight with his hard work through the middle of the ice. Tampa is likely hoping that Czata can develop into the next Anthony Cirelli for them.

5 - Dylan Duke

A former standout with the U.S. NTDP and at the University of Michigan, there was some concern about Duke’s ability to translate his skill set to the pro game. However, he was excellent for Syracuse as a rookie, leading the Crunch in goal scoring and even earning a brief NHL call-up that saw him score his first NHL goal. Duke’s hard-working nature, high IQ, and quick feet have allowed his lack of size to be a relative non-factor in the AHL. He’s now put himself in a position to push for a depth spot with the Lightning next year. Duke’s upside isn’t likely to be extremely high. He probably tops out as a complementary third line winger. However, Tampa has maintained their success through developing similar players extremely well. The focus for Duke will need to be improving his strength on the puck further and then he’ll put himself in a position to be that next man up.

6 - Connor Kurth

2024-25 was a great season for Kurth, a former scoring star in the USHL, as he emerged as a go-to offensive player for Minnesota in his junior year. As a result, the Lightning signed him to an ELC, and he has a chance to move fairly quickly if he performs well in a system without a ton of offensive firepower. Kurth is a stocky play driver who is more skill oriented than reliant on power. However, his game did add more truculence to it this past year and it was one of the main reasons why he was able to finally break out offensively. The other main reason was improvement to his quickness and pace of play. There’s likely to be an adjustment period for Kurth at the pro level, just as there was for him when he moved from the USHL to the NCAA; he’s going to need time to adjust to the pace and strength of the pro game. However, as his progress this year has shown, he has the well-rounded game to be a middle six contributor for Tampa Bay down the line.

7 - Niko Huuhtanen

Huuhtanen came into the 2024-25 season with a fair amount of hype after two great years in Liiga with Jukurit. The big power forward was even considered a sneaky candidate to earn a role with the Lightning. However, his first pro season with Syracuse showed that he’s still got some work to do before being ready for the NHL. There’s no question that he still has NHL upside. He drives the net effectively playing a north-south power game. He hits like a truck. He has a heavy shot that could end up being a weapon on the power play. However, his pace of play lags behind. Dating back to his draft year, skating has been the knock on Huuhtanen, but he’s worked hard to improve it, including those two years in Finland after playing in Everett (WHL). Yet, there’s a need to improve it further to be successful in North America.

8 - Jack Finley

Finley got a late start to his third professional season after injuring himself prior to the start of the season. After returning in January, Finley was one of Syracuse’s top players. The big pivot has the ability to dominate down low and near the net front. His skating has come a long way as a pro too, to the point where he can be the focal point of offensive attacks. This offseason will be a big one for Finley as he prepares to try to earn a roster spot in Tampa Bay next year. He’s out of options, so Tampa Bay will need to make a tough decision if they feel that his game is still not ready. A more likely scenario sees him catch on as Tampa Bay’s fourth line center to start the year, so long as he has a good training camp. Finley’s NHL upside isn’t significant, but there’s a chance he could be a very good bottom six player and a secondary power play option.

9 - Everett Baldwin

One of the pre-draft favourites of the McKeen’s scouting team this past year, Baldwin was a terrific selection by the Lightning in the fifth round. While drafting out of the prep loop can be a little bit tricky, Baldwin’s strong skating ability gives him a foundation to work with, even if many aspects of his game need refinement. A Providence College commit, Baldwin has elected to spend this coming season in the QMJHL with Saint John, an excellent decision for his development. The Sea Dogs are trying to turn things around next year and Baldwin should receive a ton of ice time in all situations. He has a chance to have a big offensive season from the blueline and that will give us a better indication of his true upside. Make no mistake, Baldwin is a long-term project, as many prep players are, but Tampa’s patience could pay off in a big way as he learns to refine his approach.

10 - Daniil Pylenkov

Daniil Pylenkov was a nice pick up for the Lightning a few years ago in the seventh round of the draft. He has developed well over the last few seasons into a very serviceable two-way defenceman. He lacks the flash that your typical modern defenceman may possess but makes up for it with patient decision making on both sides of the puck. He has become a valuable distributor on Dynamo Moskva’s power play, snapping the puck around well and firing tippable shots from the point. Defensively he is responsible in his positioning and does a good job breaking up plays with an active stick. He has just re-signed with Dynamo Moskva for the next two seasons so it is unlikely he will be playing for Tampa in the near future if at all. If he does come over, he will likely need some time in Syracuse to continue his growth but may get some looks with the Lightning on their bottom pair at some point in the near future.

11- Jayson Shaugabay

The University of Minnesota-Duluth will be led by two undersized playmakers: Max Plante and Jayson Shaugabay. Shaugabay had two fewer points in 13 more games than the former yet is still an offensive threat with his passing. Minnesota-Duluth hasn’t loaded up with talent like some other NCAA programs, so a lot of weight will be put on Shaugabay’s shoulders to put up points this season as their number two forward.

12 - Gabriel Szturc

Szturc was signed last summer by the Lightning as an undrafted free agent after a couple of point per game seasons with the Kelowna Rockets. He made the transition to the AHL this year, where he scored 19 points in 54 games. He has a decent shot, but not much high-end offensive skill beyond that. He’ll likely serve as a middle six winger in Syracuse, where he can continue to develop his production.

13 - Hagen Burrows

It’s hard not to like a prospect with size who has a sniper-esque shot like Burrows has. Unfortunately for Burrows, he is a poor skater and a slow skater. Playing at the NCAA level last year, it was clear his skating issues were holding him back, scoring one goal in 39 games. Entering his second season with Denver, Burrows will look for a larger role, although that hinges on his skating improvements.

14 - Roman Schmidt

Roman Schmidt is simply a big shutdown defenceman. You won’t get many points out of him, however, he balances that out with how little he gives up. He plays a physical brand of hockey that leaves a mark. He isn’t afraid to mix it up with his opponents or stand up for a teammate. He’ll be in the AHL with Syracuse for now, but at 6-foot-5 and a right shot, it shouldn’t be long before he gets his first NHL game.

15 - Dyllan Gill

In the upcoming season, Gill is looking to keep his injuries behind him. Gill has had two shoulder surgeries that have caused significant missed time the past two seasons. He’s a two-way defenceman with some moderate offensive potential. The seventh-round draft pick has shown he can improve when he’s on the ice, and that seems to be the hardest part. He’ll be with the Crunch full-time next season but may split some time in the ECHL.

2025 NHL PROSPECTS REPORT: #26 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 15 NHL Affiliated Prospects

Sun, 18 May 2025 14:59:01 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JULY 07: Tampa Bay Lightning pick Isaac Howard stands between management during the first round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft on July 07, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

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Tampa Bay 25 Prospects

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTING – Top 15 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #30

Introduction - Dave Hall, Profiles - Brock Otten — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 13:00:39 +0000

_{NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 25: Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Maxwell Crozier (65) looks on during a game between the against the against the Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils on February 25, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)}

Prospect System Rank – 30th (Previous Rank - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013

The Tampa Bay Lightning continues to embody the "run it back" philosophy, relying on a veteran core to remain competitive year after year. It's hard to argue with the results, as they are just two years removed from three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances and back-to-back championships. However, with aging veterans and little value sitting on the shelves, the end of the runway may be in sight.

Julien BriseBois has been notably averse to first-round picks, having selected in the first round only twice since his hiring in 2018. Unless future trades are made, that trend could continue into the 2025 NHL Entry Draft after bringing back a familiar face in Ryan McDonough for a top 10 protected first pick.

However, for the first time in what feels like a decade, perhaps we’ve finally seen a change in strategy.

In a surprising move, the Lightning acquired top prospect Conor Geekie (ranked 32nd by McKeen’s) from the Utah Hockey Club in exchange for 26-year-old Mikael Sergachev. This trade gives Tampa Bay their first top 50 McKeen’s ranked prospect in quite some time and may signal a shift towards replenishing their prospect pool—an unfamiliar prospect for Lightning fans.

Adding the likes of Geekie, who may even see games in the 2024-25 campaign, is a step in the right direction, but there is still a long road ahead.

Gage Goncalves, a 2020 second-round pick, has been developing steadily in Syracuse, coming off a strong season with 58 points in 69 games to finish just outside the top 10 in AHL scoring. At 23 years old, he’s likely to be given a longer leash after a brief stint in the 2023-24 season.

Isaac Howard (157th), the Lightnings’ only first-round draft pick in the last five years, remains a key part of their future, though he will continue to develop at the collegiate level with Michigan State. While there’s hope he could see NHL ice time as early as this spring, the team’s status as a perennial playoff contender raises questions about whether rushing him into the lineup is the best course of action.

The recent swap of Steven Stamkos for Jake Guentzel indicates that the Lightning will continue their push to remain relevant as long as players like Victor Hedman (33), Nikita Kucherov (31), Brayden Point (28) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (30) are in town.

Tampa Bay’s championship window is still wide open, but with little depth, and a lack of draft capital, they are treading in dangerous waters for the future.

Tampa Bay Lightning Top-15 Prospects

1. Conor Geekie

One of the big pieces acquired from Utah in the Mikhail Sergachev deal, Geekie immediately became Tampa’s best prospect. The big power pivot is such a difficult player to stop North/South, as he drives the middle lane with speed and advanced puck protection ability. The former 11th overall selection nearly broke the 100-point barrier in the WHL last season and is ready to take that next step as a pro. The big debate surrounding Geekie revolves around his upside as an NHL player. When his size and power advantage is neutralized, how effective will he be as an offensive player? Does he think the game at a high enough level to drive play and make those around him better at the NHL level? Geekie’s future could take a variety of different turns. Could he be a top six power center cut from the same cloth as the Tkachuk brothers? Or is he destined to be more of a bottom six contributor? Tampa Bay will learn a lot more about Geekie’s upside this year at the pro level.

2. Ethan Gauthier

Gauthier, the son of former NHL defender Denis Gauthier, and the 37th overall pick in last year’s draft, had another successful season in the QMJHL, this time with Drummondville after an offseason trade. The physically assertive forward plays a pro style game that revolves around being able to earn touches between the hash marks. He drives the net, forechecks hard, and has continued to round out his game as a two-way player. Gauthier also shoots the puck well and his goal scoring ability is the component of his offensive arsenal that likely translates the best to the pro level. To be an effective pro, Gauthier continues to work on his skating, working to become more explosive and agile. He’ll return to the QMJHL this season and should be one of the league’s top forwards as a 20-year-old. Depending on the development of his off puck play and skating, he could be NHL ready, sooner rather than later.

3. Isaac Howard

Howard, the team’s only first round selection in the last five years, had a terrific sophomore season after hitting the transfer portal the previous offseason. Howard shifted from Minnesota-Duluth to Michigan State, and it had a very positive impact on his development. He led the Spartans in scoring last year and also played a crucial role for the United States at the WJC’s, helping them capture gold. Howard was noticeably stronger on the puck last season, helping him take greater advantage of his strong skating ability to generate scoring chances. He’s a very dangerous player on the counterattack, and despite his low goal total at Michigan State, actually possesses high upside as a goal scorer because of his quick release. Howard will return to Michigan State this year as a junior and he should be considered a preseason candidate for the Hobey Baker. He might just have the highest upside of any player in Tampa’s system.

4. Niko Huuhtanen

Huuhtanen continued on the terrific development path that he started after a breakout season with WHL Everett in 2022. Two years ago, he was the rookie of the year in Liiga and this past year he led Jukurit in scoring. The big power forward signed late last season and finished his year in the AHL, giving him a taste of what to expect this coming year, his first as a pro in North America. Huuhtanen is a throwback power winger who plays a very heavy game. He’s a relentless physical player who is still learning how to walk the line in terms of discipline. However, he is most effective when he plays the power game, dominating the wall and the net front area. Huuhtanen is a prolific goal scorer, too, thanks to a very heavy release and one timer. His positive development curve has put him on a path to become a quality middle six option for the Lightning in the near future.

5. Gage Goncalves

It’s been a long road for Goncalves. The former WHL standout has now played three seasons in the AHL, improving in each of them. He led Syracuse in scoring by a significant margin this past season and finally earned a cup of coffee with the Lightning. The two-way pivot has proven to be a versatile pro. He plays an intelligent game at both ends, excelling on and off the puck. His attention to detail as a defensive player is likely going to be the thing that gets him into the NHL in a depth role before he carves out a larger one. As an offensive player, his vision and playmaking ability stand out most. He understands how to alter pace to manipulate defenses and is hard on pucks to help his line prolong offensive zone time. This year, Goncalves will need to pass through waivers in order to go to the AHL, so it seems likely that if he has a good camp, he will be given a bottom six role in Tampa Bay.

6. Max Crozier

The Lightning have to be ecstatic about what Crozier showed this past season after turning pro. Earlier last season he did not look out of place in Tampa Bay when the Lightning were having serious injury issues on the blueline. Closing out the year with Syracuse, Crozier was a near point per game defender in the AHL. Full of confidence, we saw the full scope of the impact that he can have on the game at both ends. The 6-foot-2 right shot defender does a lot of things well. He defends well thanks to an aggressive approach, a long reach, and good mobility. He takes away space from opposing forwards and defends tight spaces well thanks to his physical assertiveness. Crozier also makes a clean exit pass and has flashed an ability to quarterback the powerplay, with a strong ability to get shots through traffic. While Crozier might not have significant NHL upside, he looks like someone who can be a stable #4 or 5 defender for many years.

7. Declan Carlile

Carlile is about to be a third-year pro after a strong performance at Merrimack College and is a standout in the defensive end. He projects as a quality stay at home defender at the NHL level and he may be ready for an NHL roster spot as early as this season. He has the size. He has the reach. He is mobile. He brings physicality. He has an active stick but is also aggressive in taking away space. Carlile looks like he can help anchor a penalty killing unit in the NHL. As an offensive player, his heavy point shot helps to generate scoring chances or goals and he can make a good exit pass, but he is at his best when he keeps things simple. Much like Max Crozier, Carlile looks like a long time NHL defender for Tampa Bay, but probably tops out as a third pairing type.

8. Dylan Duke

On a Michigan team full of potential front end NHL players, Duke stood out consistently for all the right reasons this past season, finishing third in scoring and first in goals on the Wolverines. It was a very promising junior season for the diminutive pivot. Duke has always been a highly skilled playmaker who creates time and space for himself with his hands, but upgrades to his strength, off puck play, shot, and skating really upgraded his projection as a pro. Somewhat surprisingly, Duke decided to turn pro, signing with Tampa Bay at the end of the season. It might have been wise for him to return to Michigan to continue to upgrade his physical tools; he would have had a shot at being one of the better players in College Hockey this year. However, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the AHL level. While he may still be a bit of a long shot given his lack of high-end physical tools, his upside remains intriguing.

9. Jack Finley

The massive center took a nice step forward in his second pro season with Syracuse last year. Teams have to be patient with bigger forwards as they grow into their frame and Finley has been no different. He dominated down low at the WHL level before turning pro but had to continue to upgrade his strength and conditioning in order to do that at the AHL level. Behind the net is his office and he has very good vision coming off the wall and the cycle. Finley has also had to adjust to the pace of the pro game, especially as an only average skater. He’s likely still a bit away from making an impact in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have to be hoping that he can continue to develop into an Adam Lowry kind of high end third line center in the future. The Lightning will be hoping that Finley can inch closer to the point per game mark with Syracuse this year.

10. Daniil Pylenkov

Pylenkov’s development has been steady since the Lightning drafted him in 2021 in his second last year of eligibility. Now 23 (turning 24 soon), Pylenkov has emerged as one of the top young defencemen in the KHL. He still has a year remaining on his KHL deal so he won’t be coming over this year, but after that? He could be an option for Tampa as a bottom pairing defender. Pylenkov is certainly not a flashy player, however he’s a very crafty one. He makes a clean exit. He is a great stick on-puck defender. He makes sound decisions with his reads with and without the puck. His NHL upside is likely limited, but the progression of his offensive game in the KHL suggests that his projection could continue to improve. Defensive depth never hurts and Tampa has built that up well.

11. Hagen Burrows

Last year’s winner of Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey Award, Burrows was a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2024. The big winger was excellent last season, splitting time between the USHL and high school hockey. Burrows plays a mature game, tough to separate from the puck and an excellent playmaker coming off the wall. There’s a definitive need for him to improve his skating and he’ll try to do that at the University of Denver this season.

12. Hugo Alnefelt

13. Jayson Shaugabay

One of the most skilled and creative players in Tampa’s system, Shaugabay opted to play a full season in the USHL last season before making the jump to the NCAA. This allowed the diminutive forward to continue to build strength so that he can take greater advantage of his offensive gifts. Shaugabay will now head to Minnesota-Duluth this year and will likely be given a good shot to play a key offensive role as a freshman.

14. Lucas Edmonds

After a strong rookie season in the AHL two years ago, last season was a step back for Edmonds. No question, he’s a talented playmaker. However, there’s a strong need for him to upgrade his physical tools still to be a more consistent pro. 2024/25 is going to be a critical season for his development. A qualifying offer is likely dependent on his performance and progress.

15. Gabriel Szturc

The Lightning have had some good success signing free agents out of the CHL and the team dipped into that pool again a few times last year. Czech pivot and former Kelowna Rocket captain Gabriel Szturc is one such player. He’s a competitive, two-way, playmaker who, ignoring the cliche, plays much larger than his size. He projects as a versatile bottom six forward for Tampa Bay.

MCKEEN’S 2024 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #29 Tampa Bay Lightning – Organizational Overview – Top 15 Prospects

Player Profiles - Brock Otten, Team Overview - Robert Howard — Tue, 28 May 2024 20:15:54 +0000

240102 Isaac Howard of USA during the 2024 IIHF World Junior Championship quarter final game between USA and Latvia on January 2, 2024 in Gothenburg.
Photo: Carl Sandin / BILDBYRÅN / kod CS / CS0475

They are only two seasons removed from a Stanley Cup Final appearance, following back-to-back cup wins. Two first-round exits in a row have many analysts questioning whether the window to win is closing. GM Julien Brisebois has been at the helm for the success and has been clear he still very much believes in this core to become champions once again and has repeatedly pushed his chips to the center of the table, trading future for the present. They are one of only two teams with no graduated prospects in the last five years. They do not pick until the fifth round in 2024 and have already moved their 2025 pick in a massive package of picks for Tanner Jeannot. Their 2024 pick was used in a package (including a 2023 1st round pick and other pieces) for Brandon Hagel.

Jeannot is 26 years old, and a UFA at the end of the season, while Hagel is 25, and has subsequently signed an eight-year extension with the team. They join a core group that is not as old as reports would have you believe. 34-year-old Steven Stamkos and his free agency will dominate the news over the offseason. Victor Hedman is 33 years old but showed he still has a lot to offer this season after a down year in 2022-23. If Stamkos does sign elsewhere, it will free up valuable cap space. An issue that has been a continuous challenge for the organization. The Lightning are focused on winning with this core. They include one of the best players in the world in Nikita Kucherov, who is only 30 years old, and elite goaltender Andrei Vasilevsky at 29, along with 28-year-old Brayden Point, and 25-year-old Mikhail Sergachev (injured this past season). You have a core that is elite and knows how to win. With or without Stamkos, Tampa will be a contender for a few years yet.

RNK	PLAYER	POS	AGE	HT/WT	TM	Acquired	GP	G(W)	A(L)	PTS(GAA)	PIM(SPCT)
1	Ethan Gauthier	RW	19	5-11/175	Drummondville (QMJHL)	`23(37th)	64	36	35	71	42
2	Isaac Howard	LW	20	5-10/185	Michigan State (B1G)	`22(31st)	36	8	28	36	10
3	Niko Huuhtanen	RW	20	6-2/205	Jukurit (Fin-Liiga)	`21(224th)	52	19	27	46	46
4	Gage Goncalves	C	23	6-1/170	Syracuse (AHL)	`20(62nd)	69	13	45	58	43
5	Max Crozier	D	24	6-1/195	Syracuse (AHL)	`19(120th)	49	4	17	21	43
5	Max Crozier	D	24	6-1/195	Tampa Bay (NHL)	`19(120th)	13	0	2	2	7
6	Declan Carlile	D	23	6-2/190	Syracuse (AHL)	FA(3/22)	61	7	20	27	26
7	Hugo Alnefelt	G	22	6-3/195	Syracuse (AHL)	`19(71st)	30	14	8	2.76	0.893
8	Jack Finley	C	21	6-6/215	Syracuse (AHL)	`20(57th)	52	13	19	32	29
9	Dylan Duke	LW	21	5-10/180	Michigan (B1G)	`21(126th)	41	26	23	49	30
10	Daniil Pylenkov	D	23	6-1/195	Dynamo Moskva (KHL)	`21(196th)	67	7	22	29	18
11	Dyllan Gill	D	19	6-1/180	Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)	`22(223rd)	12	1	8	9	2
12	Jayson Shaugabay	RW	18	5-9/155	Green Bay (USHL)	`23(115th)	62	15	40	55	12
13	Lucas Edmonds	RW	23	5-10/180	Syracuse (AHL)	`22(86th)	45	9	7	16	6
14	Connor Kurth	RW	20	5-11/205	Minnesota (B1G)	`22(192nd)	37	7	14	21	14
15	Roman Schmidt	D	21	6-5/210	Kit-Kgn (OHL)	`21(96th)	47	8	24	32	62

1. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)

Ethan Gauthier, the son of former NHL defender Denis Gauthier and the 37th overall pick in last year’s draft, had another successful season in the QMJHL, this time with Drummondville after an offseason trade. The physically assertive forward plays a pro-style game that revolves around being able to earn touches between the hash marks. He drives the net, forechecks hard, and has continued to round out his game as a two-way player. He also shoots the puck well and his goal-scoring ability is the component of his offensive arsenal that likely translates the best to the pro level. To be an effective pro, he continues to work on his skating, working to become more explosive and agile. He’ll return to the QMJHL next season and should be one of the league’s top forwards as a 20-year-old. Depending on the development of his off puck play and skating, he could be NHL ready, sooner, rather than later.

2. Isaac Howard, LW, Michigan State University (NCAA)

Isaac Howard, the team’s only first round selection in the last four years, had a terrific sophomore season after hitting the transfer portal last offseason. Howard shifted from Minnesota-Duluth to Michigan State, and it had a very positive impact on his development. He led the Spartans in scoring this year and also played a crucial role for the United States at the WJC’s, helping them capture gold. He was noticeably stronger on the puck this year, helping him take greater advantage of his strong skating ability to generate scoring chances. He’s a very dangerous player on the counterattack, and despite his low goal total at Michigan State, actually possesses high upside as a goal scorer because of his quick release. Howard will return to Michigan State next year as a junior and he should be considered a preseason candidate for the Hobey Baker. Without question, he has the highest upside of any player in Tampa’s system.

3. Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Niko Huuhtanen has continued on the terrific development path that he started after a breakout season with Everett of the WHL in 2022. Last year he was the rookie of the year in Liiga and this year he led Jukurit in scoring. The big, power forward remains unsigned, but there has to be a strong chance that he signs soon and plays next year in North America again. Huuhtanen is a throwback power winger who plays a very heavy game. He’s a relentless physical player who is still learning how to walk the line in terms of discipline. However, he is most effective when he plays the power game, dominating the wall and the net front area. He is a prolific goal scorer too, thanks to a very heavy release and one timer. His positive development curve has put him on a path to become a quality middle six option for the Lightning in the near future.

4. Gage Goncalves, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

It’s been a long road for Goncalves. The former WHL standout has now played three seasons in the AHL, improving in each of them. He led Syracuse in scoring by a significant margin this year and finally earned a cup of coffee with the Lightning. The two-way pivot has proven to be a versatile pro. He plays an intelligent game at both ends, excelling on and off the puck. His attention to detail as a defensive player is likely going to be the thing that gets him into the NHL in a depth role before he carves out a larger one. As an offensive player, his vision and playmaking ability stand out most. He understands how to alter pace to manipulate defenses and is hard on pucks to help his line prolong offensive zone time. Next year, He will need to pass through waivers in order to go to the AHL, so it seems likely that if he has a good camp, he will be given a bottom six role.

5. Max Crozier, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

The Lightning have to be ecstatic about what Max Crozier has shown this year after turning pro. Earlier this season he did not look out of place in Tampa Bay when the Lightning were having serious injury issues on the blueline. Closing out the year in the AHL, he has been a near point per game defender. Full of confidence, we’re seeing the full scope of the impact that he can have on the game at both ends. The 6’ 2”, right shot defender is one of those players who does a lot of things well. He defends well thanks to an aggressive approach, a long reach, and good mobility. He takes away space from opposing forwards and defends tight spaces well thanks to his physical assertiveness. He makes a clean exit pass and has flashed an ability to quarterback the powerplay, with a strong ability to get shots through traffic. While he might not have significant NHL upside, he can be a stable #4 or 5 defender for many years.

6. Declan Carlile, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

A second-year pro after a strong performance at Merrimack College, Carlile is a standout in the defensive end. He projects as a quality stay at home defender at the NHL level and he may be ready for an NHL roster spot as early as next season. He possesses the size. He has the reach. He is mobile. He brings physicality. He owns an active stick, but is also aggressive in taking away space. Carlile looks like someone who can help anchor a penalty killing unit in the NHL. As an offensive player, his heavy point shot helps to generate scoring chances or goals and he can make a good exit pass, but he is at his best when he keeps things simple. Much like Max Crozier, he looks like a long time NHL defender for Tampa Bay, but probably tops out as a third pairing type.

7. Hugo Alnefelt, G, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

Expectations were pretty high for Alnefelt a few years ago when he made the jump from the SHL to the AHL in Tampa’s system. At the time, he was considered one of the top European goaltending prospects. Since then, his development has stagnated to a certain degree. He hasn’t been awful for Syracuse, but he also hasn’t shown the kind of growth you would expect from a future NHL netminder. He has the tools to be one, but consistency has remained an issue for him. However, without much else in the system at the moment, Alnefelt remains the team’s top option for the future behind Vasilevsky. He will compete for the back-up job next year but does still have another year of waiver eligibility remaining. That means he probably returns to Syracuse, where Tampa will be hoping he finally takes that next step as one of the AHL’s top netminders.

8. Jack Finley, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

The massive center has taken a nice step forward in his second pro season with Syracuse. Teams have to be patient with bigger forwards as they grow into their frame and he has been no different. He dominated down low at the WHL level before turning pro but had to continue to upgrade his strength and conditioning in order to do that at the AHL level. Behind the net is his office and he has very good vision coming off the wall and the cycle. Finley has also had to adjust to the pace of the pro game, especially as an only average skater. He’s likely still a bit away from making an impact in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have to be hoping that he can continue to develop into an Adam Lowry kind of high end third line center in the future.

9. Dylan Duke, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

On a Michigan team full of potential front end NHL players, Duke stood out consistently for all the right reasons this year, finishing third in scoring and first in goals on the Wolverines. It was a very promising junior season for the diminutive pivot. He has always been a highly skilled playmaker who creates time and space for himself with his hands, but upgrades to his strength, off puck play, shot, and skating really upgraded his projection as a pro. Somewhat surprisingly, Duke decided to turn pro, signing with Tampa Bay recently. It might have been wise for him to return to Michigan to continue to upgrade his physical tools; he would have had a shot at being one of the better players in college hockey next year. While he may still be a bit of a long shot given his lack of high-end physical tools, his upside remains intriguing. Outside of Isaac Howard, no one in this system has the offensive upside that he possesses.

10. Daniil Pylenkov, D, Dynamo Moskva (KHL)

Daniil Pylenkov’s development has been steady since the Lightning drafted him in 2021 in his second last year of eligibility. Now 23, Pylenkov has emerged as one of the top young defensemen in the KHL. He still has a year remaining on his KHL deal so he won’t be coming over next year, but after that? He could be an option for Tampa as a bottom pairing defender. Pylenkov is certainly not a flashy player. However, he’s a very crafty one. He makes a clean exit. He is a great stick on puck defender. He makes sound decisions with his reads with and without the puck. His NHL upside is likely limited, but the progression of his offensive game in the KHL does suggest that his projection could continue to improve.

PROSPECT CRITERIA: Players under 26 years of age as of 9/15/2024 who have appeared in less than 60 games (30 for goalies) and less than 25 in one season (25 for goalies).

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #32

Brock Otten, Derek Neumeier, Chapin Landvogt and Josh Bell — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 18:59:22 +0000

Top 20 Tampa Bay Lightning Prospects

1. Isaac Howard

One of the more recent additions to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s prospect pool, Howard was drafted 31st overall in 2022, after putting up 82 points in 60 games with the USNTDP, as well as an impressive 11-point performance at U18s en route to a silver medal for Team USA. Last season, he moved on to the NCAA’s University of Minnesota-Duluth where he didn’t find that same offensive production and obviously wasn’t happy with his season as he has since transferred to Michigan State University for 2023-24. Howard is a speedy and creative playmaker who plays a strong small-area game. He can be a bit inconsistent in his effort level, but with the right coaching and development, he can reach his ceiling as a dependable second-line winger in the NHL. Lightning fans may need to be patient with him through his development as he works the kinks out.

2. Ethan Gauthier

After pumping in 6 goals and 7 points in 5 games for Canada at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, all eyes were on Gauthier’s QMJHL performance last season with the Sherbrooke Phoenix. Ultimately, the righty shot improved upon the 18 goals and 39 points of his freshman campaign into 30 goals and 69 points for his draft year, adding another 11 points in the playoffs and being named “Best Professional Prospect” in the Q for his efforts. A relentless pursuer of the puck who forces his opponents to make quick decisions, particularly on the forecheck, Gauthier possesses a smooth, mechanically-sound stride that utilizes sound crossovers and applies quick acceleration to create opportunities for his line. This is the fundamental strength and basis of his game that should allow for an NHL career in some capacity. Tampa Bay selected him 37th overall this summer with the hope that his keen understanding of how to apply his tools for generating offense will have him looking like a top-line support winger who plays a heavy game. His QMJHL rights were dealt to Drummondville, where the Lightning organization hopes he’ll enjoy a dominating offensive season before going pro.

3. Niko Huuhtanen

From being the last player selected in 2021 to the number three prospect in the Lightning system is a testament to both the development of Huuhtanen as well as an admission that he was drafted too low. The Finnish forward was selected after his second full season in the U20 SM-sarja, producing nearly a point-per-game. After being selected, he came overseas to the WHL’s Everett Silvertips where he impressed, leading all rookies in goals with 37 in just 65 games. He returned to Finland last season, but this time to the Liiga, where he again led all rookies in goals (17) as well as points (30). He has pro size and plays a hard, physical game while boasting a heavy shot. Huuhtanen is well on his way to slotting in as a bottom six contributor but could play up the lineup if called upon.

4. Jack Finley

It’s hard to miss Finley on the ice, standing at 6- 6” and 223 pounds. The Lightning took notice, selecting him 57th overall in 2020. He was coming off a strong sophomore season in the WHL with the Spokane Chiefs but lost almost the entire 2020-21 season due to a torn labrum. He returned to the WHL for one final season, taking time to get back up to speed but looking strong down the stretch. He moved up to the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch last season, again taking time to adjust but fitting in well as the season wore on. He’s likely not going to be a high-skill player but should bring strong possession ability and be a net-front presence. He needs to improve his skating and to learn how to use his size to his advantage, but he’s a raw, intriguing prospect. Finley could be a bottom-six forward when all is said and done.

5. Jack Thompson

Thompson was another product of the 2020 NHL Draft, 93rd overall, after doubling his scoring output in his second OHL season. He headed overseas to play in the HockeyEttan during the cancelled 2020-21 season, contributing a point-per-game as a defender. He came back to the OHL in 2021-22 as the captain of the Sudbury Wolves before a trade to the Soo. Thompson’s season including leading all OHL defenders in goals (21) and helping Canada to a World Juniors gold medal. He jumped to the AHL last season, looking extremely comfortable in the process. He’s capable of playing big minutes, thrives when getting involved offensively, and has shown steps forward on the defensive side of the puck as well. He’s a pretty well-rounded player without excelling in one specific area and has the potential to be a bottom-four, two-way presence, especially if he can maintain his offensive success at the pro levels.

6. Hugo Alnefelt

It feels as though Alnefelt has been on the cusp of the NHL ever since he was selected in the third round by the Lightning in 2019. The goaltender was coming off a good season in the J20 SuperElit, while standing out internationally in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, winning a silver medal, as well as in the U18s, winning a gold. The next two seasons were spent in the SHL while appearing in back-to-back World Juniors. Alnefelt moved to North America in 2021-22 and struggled in his first season, before looking more comfortable with the Crunch last season. When he’s on, he angles out shooters well and is quite agile in the net. He controls rebound well and has good athleticism. He’s been quite inconsistent thus far and can let in soft shots at times. He could become a reliable backup in the NHL and could make that move relatively soon.

7. Gage Goncalves

Goncalves has followed a steady trajectory in his development, showing some improving each season. After two seasons in the WHL, the Lightning took note, using the 62nd pick in 2020 to select him. Goncalves returned to the WHL for one more season in 2020-21, as the alternate captain, earning his first NHL contract and moving to the AHL in 2021-22. His professional transition was rather seamless and looked even better in his second go-round last season. As seems to be a theme with Lightning prospects, he’s a competitive forward who never quits on a play. He’s a strong playmaker with a knack for feeding the slot, plays a smart game, and rarely makes a mistake. Goncalves seems well on his way to an NHL roster where he should be able to secure a spot as a bottom six player who could play up if needed. The Lightning have definitely been looking for players of his specific type in recent years.

8. Lucas Edmonds

Originally eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft, Lucas Edmonds finally heard his name called in the 2022, 86th overall. After playing in Sweden in his first two draft eligible seasons, mainly in the J20 SuperElit, he split time between the HockeyAllsvenskan and HockeyEttan in 2020-21 and decided a change was needed, moving to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs in 2021-22, where he put up 113 points in just 68 games, leading the league in assists (79). The Lightning bit, immediately signing him to an entry-level deal, and bringing him to the AHL. Edmonds played well last season, employing an intelligent, well-rounded game. A playmaker who knows how to create offense, his path has been an interesting one, but he likely tops out as an AHLer and call-up option. That said, there is a reasonable chance that he finds a regular role as a bottom-line winger as well, considering his quick adjustment to the AHL.

9. Dylan Duke

High energy, highly competitive prospects give themselves a better chance to make it and the Lightning are betting on just that with Duke. He was selected 126th overall in 2021 after a point-per-game season with the USNTDP, which included being named a top-three player in the U18s. He moved on to the NCAA with the University of Michigan in 2021-22, falling victim to a lack of ice time on a deep Wolverines team, and seeing his production dip in the process. He took on a bigger role last season, increasing in offense and earning the call to Team USA at the World Juniors, winning bronze. Duke is a tenacious winger with only one gear – high! He battles hard, always working to get the puck back on his team’s sticks. If everything pans out, he could be a very entertaining middle-six winger.

10. Jayson Shaugabay

Shaugabay is a shifty and highly deceptive playmaking winger with significant offensive upside. When playing in the Minnesota high school loop, he was the best player in the State, earning the coveted Mr. Hockey award for the season. He also started and finished the year with USHL Green Bay and was a standout for the Gamblers too, with one of the highest point per game averages on the team, albeit in a smaller sample size of games played. Shaugabay was one of the most skilled and creative players with the puck from the 2023 draft class. He routinely creates extra time and space for himself by beating the first and second layers of pressure, turning would-be defenders into pylons. That said, there are a lot of areas to his game that will need work for him to reach his high ceiling, particularly his skating and strength on the puck, especially given his size. Minnesota-Duluth should be a great place for him, a program that tends to draw players who are more polished off the puck and incorporate power into their game, which could help his creative style flourish while transforming him into a more well-rounded player.

11. Declan Carlilie

There is a very quiet effectiveness to Carlile’s game. Efficient at both ends, he can start the breakout or squash the opposition’s. After a very solid first full year in the AHL, the former Merrimack defender has put himself in contention for a roster spot with Tampa Bay.

12. Daniil Pylenkov

Pylenkov is quickly becoming one of the better young defenders in Russia after a strong KHL season. A standout in the defensive end, he could probably play a third pairing role already. However, he still has two years remaining on his KHL deal and there are questions as to whether he’s actually interested in coming over.

13. Cole Koepke

A goal scoring winger with some jam to his game, Koepke has yet to live up to the high expectations that the Lightning had for him through two pro seasons. He struggled in a cup of coffee with Tampa last season, but there’s still some hope that he can be a quality third line option, even though he’s already 25.

14. Nick Malik

It was a step backwards for Malik last year after he lost his starting role with KooKoo due to inconsistent play. The son of former NHL defender Marek Malik, Nick is a tremendous athlete, but he is still working to refine his approach in the crease.

15. Roman Schmidt

Schmidt is a massive defender who also happens to be fairly mobile for his size. After a few seasons in the OHL with Kitchener, he will turn pro this year. His focus will be on improving his puck management.

16. Gabriel Fortier

The offensive upside is not significant, but Fortier will likely be an NHL player in some capacity in the future due to his tenaciousness and the energy he brings in whatever role that is asked of him. He could be a full time fourth liner this upcoming season.

17. Max Crozier

Even with some decent offensive production at Providence, Crozier’s future in the NHL will probably be in more of a defensive role similar to the way Nick Perbix quickly rose through the system. The right shot defender moves well and brings a physical element. He will play with Syracuse this year.

18. Connor Kurth

A former USHL standout, Kurth is a very talented offensive player. However, his freshman production was pretty pedestrian as he got buried in the Gophers lineup. Tampa Bay is hoping that he can earn a larger role as a sophomore.

19. Waltteri Merela

Signed out of Finland this offseason, Merela is a big winger with strong puck protection skills. He helped Tappara capture Liiga and Champions League titles last year and could easily make the Lightning lineup out of camp.

20. Jack Harvey

Taken by Tampa in his final year of draft eligibility, Harvey will head to Boston University this fall after a few good seasons with Chicago of the USHL. His off-puck play improved a lot this year, prompting his selection.

MCKEEN’S 2023 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #32 – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Josh Bell — Thu, 11 May 2023 23:08:10 +0000

Prospect System Rank – 32nd

Two Stanley Cups and a final appearance last season was well worth spending future assets for current needs. The Lightning has consistently emptied the prospect cupboard each season successfully in search of championships. They are one of two teams who have not graduated any drafted prospects from the last five drafts as a result. This season was no different as they cleared whatever they had left in the tank to acquire 25-year-old Tanner Jeannot for Cal Foote, 2023 3rd round pick, 2023 4th round pick, 2023 5th round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, 2025 1st round pick (Top 10 protected). A rich haul for a restricted free agent at season’s end. He is presumably part of their plans going forward. They enter the current draft with only a 6^th and 7^th round pick.

Their current group of prospects do not offer any immediate help as they are still focused on winning for the next few seasons. The highest ranked prospect is Isaac Howard who is #119 overall (their only 1^st round pick since 2019 – Nolan Foote who has been subsequently traded and they have only two in the top 200 (Niko Huuhtanen #189). They have been known for their development and have had success filling from within without high picks. Cole Koepke is the best bet to add something from their depth but look for Lightning to continue to look for veteran depth adds at the expense of youth. They do not have many chips left to play with regards to picks.

Isaac Howard

One of the more recent additions to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s prospect pool, Isaac Howard was drafted 31st overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. This was after putting up 82 points in 60 games with the USNTDP, and an impressive 11-point performance at U18s en route to a silver medal for Team USA. This season, he’s moved on to the NCAA’s University of Minnesota-Duluth where he didn’t find that same offensive production and obviously wasn’t happy with his season as he’s transferring to Michigan State University for 2023-24. Howard is a speedy, creative, playmaker that plays a strong small-area game. He can be a bit inconsistent in his effort level at times, but with the right coaching and development, he can become a dependable second-line winger in the NHL. Lightning fans may need to be patient with him though as he develops and works the kinks out.

2. Niko Huuhtanen

From being the last player selected in the 2021 NHL Draft to the number two prospect in the Lightning system is a testament to both the development of Niko Huuhtanen as well as the fact that the forward was probably drafted too low. The Finnish forward was selected after his second full season in the U20 SM-sarja, playing at nearly a point-per-game clip. After being selected, he came overseas to the WHL’s Everett Silverstips where he impressed, leading all rookies in goals with 37 in just 65 games. He’s returned to Finland this season but to the Liiga, where he led all rookies in goals (17) and points (30). He has pro size and plays a hard, physical game while boasting a heavy shot. He’s well on his way to slotting in as a bottom six contributor but could play up the lineup if called upon.

3. Jack Finley

It’s hard to miss Jack Finley on the ice, standing at 6-foot-6 and 223 pounds. The Lightning took notice, selecting him 57th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. He was coming off a strong sophomore season with the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL but lost almost the entire 2020-21 season with a torn labrum. He returned to the WHL for one last season, taking some time to get back up to speed but looking strong down the stretch. He moved up to the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch this season, again taking some time to adjust but fitting in well. He’s likely not going to be a high-skill player but should be a player that can bring strong possession and be a net-front presence. He needs to improve his skating and he needs to learn how to use his size to his advantage, but he’s a raw, intriguing prospect. He could be a bottom six forward when all is said and done.

4. Jack Thompson

Jack Thompson was also selected in the 2020 NHL Draft, 93rd overall after doubling his output in his second OHL season. He headed overseas to play in the HockeyEttan during the cancelled 2020-21 season, going a point-per-game as a defender. He came back to the OHL in 2021-22 as the captain of the Sudbury Wolves before getting traded to the Soo Greyhounds. He led all defenders in goals (21) and helped Canada to a World Juniors gold medal in the process. He’s jumped to the AHL this season, looking extremely comfortable in the process. He’s capable of playing big minutes, thrives at getting involved offensively, and has shown steps forward on the defensive side of the puck. He’s a pretty well-rounded player without excelling in one specific area. He has the potential to be a bottom-four, two-way presence, especially if he can maintain his offensive success at the pro levels.

5. Hugo Alnefelt

It’s felt as though Hugo Alnefelt has been on the cusp of the NHL ever since he was selected by the Lightning in 2019, 71st overall. The goaltender was coming off a good season in the J20 SuperElit, while standing out internationally in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, winning a silver medal, and in the U18s, winning a gold. The next two seasons were spent in the SHL while appearing in back-to-back World Juniors. He moved to North America in 2021-22 and struggled in the AHL before settling in this season with the Crunch. When he’s on, he angles out shooters well and is quite agile in the net. He controls rebound well and has good athleticism. He’s been quite inconsistent though and can let in some soft shots at times. He could become a reliable backup in the NHL and could make that move relatively soon.

6. Dylan Duke

Prospects that play a high energy, highly competitive game tend to make it and the Lightning are betting on just that in Dylan Duke. They selected him 126th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft after a point-per-game season with the USNTDP and being named a top-three player in the U18s. He moved on to the NCAA and the University of Michigan in 2021-22, falling victim to playing on a deep Wolverines team and seeing his production dip. He took on a bigger role this season, seeing a noticeable increase in offense and getting the call to Team USA at the World Juniors, winning bronze. He’s a tenacious winger that only has one gear - go. He battles hard, always working to get the puck back on his team’s sticks. If everything pans out, he could be a very entertaining middle-six winger which is great value for where they drafted him.

7. Cole Koepke

It’s been a long road for Cole Koepke, drafted way back in 2018, 183rd overall. But the Lightning have stuck with him, keeping him in the system. They selected him out of the USHL, taking a flier on him later in the draft. He moved on to the NCAA’s University of Minnesota-Duluth, where he spent three seasons, winning a National Championship in his rookie year. The Lightning liked what they saw, signing him to his entry-level deal and moving him to the AHL in 2021-22 where he had a strong season, arguably looking better than he did in college. His production has dipped this season, but he’s earned time in the NHL as well, already proving to be a success considering where he was drafted. He’s likely in his role now as a call-up option but could carve out a bottom six spot for himself at some point.

8. Gage Goncalves

Gage Goncalves has followed a steady trajectory in his development, steadily improving each season. After two seasons in the WHL, the Lightning saw this, using the 62nd overall pick in 2020 to call his name. He returned to the WHL for one more season as the alternate captain, earning his first NHL contract and moving to the AHL in 2021-22. He stepped right into the league without skipping a step and has looked even better this season. As seems to be a theme with Lightning prospects, he’s a competitive forward that never quits on a play. He’s a strong playmaker with a knack for feeding the slot. He plays a smart game and rarely makes a mistake. He seems well on his way to an NHL roster where he should be able to steal a spot as a bottom six player that could play up if needed. The Lightning have definitely been looking for a specific type of player in recent years.

9. Daniil Pylenkov

Yet another late draft pick, the Lightning selected Daniil Pylenkov 196th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft as an overager. At that time, he had already completed his second full season in the KHL, where he’s been stuck ever since. He had a strong season this year, especially after being traded from SKA St. Petersburg to Severstal Cherepovets and seeing his minutes increase dramatically. He’s a physical defender that keeps an active stick and isn’t afraid to dive in front of a shot. He has some sneaky offensive ability too, mainly through his playmaking. But in the NHL, it’s his defensive game that shines. He’s developed well since being selected and looks poised to earn his entry-level deal. Expect him to spend some time in the AHL first, but he should be a call-up option fairly quickly and could slot in as a bottom-pairing defender.

10. Lucas Edmonds

Originally eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft, Lucas Edmond finally heard his name called in the 2022 NHL Draft, 86th overall. After playing in Sweden in his draft year, mainly in the J20 SuperElit, and then again in 2019-20, he split time between the HockeyAllsvenskan and HockeyEttan in 2020-21 and decided a change was needed. He moved to the OHL’s Kingston Frontencas in 2021-22, putting up 113 points in just 68 games, leading the league in assists (79). The Lighting bit, immediately signing him to an entry-level deal and bringing him to the AHL. He’s played well this season, playing an intelligent, well-rounded game. He’s a playmaker that knows how to create offense. His path is an interesting one, but he likely remains an AHLer that could be a call-up option throughout his career. However, he could be a bottom-line winger as well, based on how well he’s adjusted in the AHL.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 20 Prospects

Sun, 18 Sep 2022 21:30:56 +0000

1 - Isaac Howard LW

Isaac Howard is an interesting prospect, as, just looking at it on paper, his selection near the back of the first round of the NHL draft is a bit confusing. His production is there, as he scored at a far-above point-per-game rate at the U.S. National Team Development Program. Howard also plays with the skill level of a top-end offensive prospect, with the playmaking skill, puckhandling, and skating ability. The tools are all there with Howard. But the concerns with his profile, and the factors that likely contributed to his selection late in the first round, are largely based on his style. Howard’s offensive tools are strong, but the way he uses them can be, at times, inefficient. The best offensive prospects in hockey are the ones who are able to reach a different level of thinking when it comes to each shift. Shane Wright, for example, is exceptional at leveraging his space on the ice without the puck to create space for his teammates. Kent Johnson, as another example, has, like Howard, a high skill level, but he deploys that skill level with such ingenuity, creativity, and unpredictability that he’ll find ways to remain productive even against talented NHL defensemen. Howard’s skill level rivals the best prospects in his age group, but he’s a bit behind on how he actually utilizes his wide array of talents. He’s relentless and willing to attack the difficult middle of the ice, but he doesn’t deceive his opponents or manipulate play the way other prospects can. Howard can create a significant number of chances for himself and his linemates, but one wonders how effective he’ll be at higher levels of hockey when he needs to find a way to remain productive with two or three chances a game, rather than ten. Thankfully, though, Howard will head to college where he’ll have a long runway to refine his offensive approach and make it more translatable to the pro game. He has all the tools to become an NHL scorer, he just needs to improve his toolbox. - EH

2 - Jack Thompson D

The 93rd overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, Jack Thompson had a great season in the OHL split between two teams, being an impact player on both sides of the puck. The former 30th overall selection in the 2018 OHL Draft had a good rookie year, finishing with 16 points (6G,10A) in 52 games. During the 2019-2020 season, Thompson took a step in his development and became a very effective defenseman for the Wolves, leading the teams’ blue line in points with 32 (13G,19A) in 63 games while still being solid defensively. During the 2020-2021 season while the OHL was shutdown due to Covid-19, Thompson made the decision like others to go play in Europe. Thompson played in the HockeyEttan and was very productive, finishing with 18 points (9G,9A) in 18 games. Thompson also got the opportunity like some others to play in the AHL, which was an exception made because of the OHL being shutdown. In the 2021-2022 season, Thompson had a great year, being a top producing defenseman on both the Wolves and the Greyhounds. Altogether between both teams he finished with 57 points (21G,36A) in 65 games, which was 7th in the league for points by a defenseman, tied for 1st in the league for goals by a defenseman and 4th on the team in points. Thompson’s best assets are his shot and hockey sense. Thompson is an offensive threat, especially on the power play with his cannon of a shot. He has a great shot, and he understands how to use it, getting shots through traffic and on net consistently. He has great awareness in all three zones and displays smart decision making on each shift, staying very responsible. Going into the 2022-2023 season, Thompson should make a jump into the AHL and be an effective asset, especially on the power play. - DK

3 - Nick Perbix D

A sixth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning at the 2017 NHL draft, Perbix has taken the long road to pro hockey. He spent the year after he was drafted in the USHL before beginning a four-year collegiate career at St. Cloud State, a career that would end with him graduating and signing an entry-level contract with the Lightning. Impressively, Perbix stepped into the AHL and looked the part almost immediately. Despite having spent most of his season in college, Perbix ended up playing a major role for the Crunch as they solidified their place in the AHL playoffs. Head coach Benoit Groulx trusted Perbix to play top-four minutes, significant power play time, and even time on the penalty kill, an indication of just how pro-ready Perbix was right after he left college. Now 24 years old and entering his first full professional season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the six-foot-four Perbix exit training camp having beaten out teammates Darren Raddysh and Sean Day as the Lighting’s eighth defenseman on their depth chart. Perbix isn’t a finished product, but he knows what he’s good at and knows when he needs to not be noticed. Despite his impressive size, Perbix may not have a future handling the toughest defensive minutes. Instead, he could thrive in a role as a depth defenseman who offers value in transition, pace-pushing play, and doesn’t look out of place in his own zone. - EH

4 - Maxim Groshev RW

Maxim Groshev is a mobile, hard-working forward with solid finishing ability, yet his upside looks rather limited, and the best-case projection would be a bottom-six NHL winger, so he is a prospect of note without being intriguing. Even so, he is the type of player who is really valuable for the postseason and thus a good fit for the Lightning organization. Last season was disappointing for Groshev, as he failed to earn a regular role with his KHL team and only got the ice time he needs to develop after he was demoted to play in the VHL. On the other hand, he is still only 20 years old, and he did look legit at the VHL level, so the year wasn’t too disappointing. As of this writing, he has been producing very well in the KHL preseason, and there are still more than enough reasons to remain positive about his future. We absolutely expect Groshev to break through with a fulltime KHL role this year. It should also be mentioned that this is the last year of his current KHL contract and with the way things are going, there is a solid possibility that both the Lightning and Groshev will agree that the best way to further his development might be playing for the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL with the hopes using that opportunity to springboard an NHL career. - VF

5 - Jack Finley C

A massive pivot, and the son of former NHL defender Jeff Finley, Jack was a second-round selection of Tampa in 2020. Finley can flat out dominate down low and when working the cycle with how difficult he is to separate from the puck. Below the goal line is his office and he works feverishly to prolong possession and to tire out opposing defenders. He has good, but not great hands, however, he does have good vision when working below the goal line to spot open teammates. Finley is also an intelligent two-way player who uses his size and reach effectively in the defensive zone to be disruptive. The key for him moving forward is to continue to improve his quickness and overall skating ability. It did improve some as a WHL player, but not to the point where it needs to be for him to be a quality pro. Additionally, there has to be some concern that Finley never hit the point per game mark as a WHL player over four seasons (even if he basically lost one due to the pandemic). His offensive upside might be fairly limited moving forward as a pro, with the best-case scenario being that Finley develops into an Adam Lowry type of player for the Lightning in the future. - BO

6 - Hugo Alnefelt G

After the 20-21 season – which saw Tampa Bay’s 2019 3^rd rounder lose the starting job on a club facing relegation out of SHL – put a damper on his prospect status, Alnefelt’s 21-22 AHL season once again left much to be desired. His record wasn’t necessarily anything to worry about, but his GAA and save percentage both fell short. In addition, he gained plenty of competition from Tampa’s Russian 2020 6^th rounder, Amir Miftakhov, for the back-up spot to veteran Max Lagacé, who was clearly AHL Syracuse’s go-to goaltender. The lack of playing time for the 6’3” hulk saw him get several (ultimately winless) outings with Orlando of the ECHL, putting up even worse GAA and save percentage statistics. Several years ago, Alnefelt’s star was quite bright, and it was felt that he was close to being the organization’s top prospect. That has since changed drastically and although he is still regarded as a solid goaltending prospect who will simply need playing time, the organization added Nick Malik this past summer, a 20-year-old who is internationally experienced and excelled for KooKoo of the Finnish Liiga last season. With ideal size, Alnefelt is scheduled to be the full-time back-up, or 1B, for Syracuse this winter as Miftakhov has signed on with Kazan, so there is a chance for redemption. With Andrei Vasilevsky still considered among perhaps the top three goaltenders on the planet and ageless veteran Brian Elliot still trucking along in the back-up role, Alnefelt continues to have plenty of time to live up to the organization’s hopes. – CL

7 - Declan Carlile D

The Lightning have traded many picks and prospects in recent years as part of their chase of Stanley Cup rings, a chase that has been highly successful thus far. The result of these trades has been the Lightning need to use other avenues to add prospects to their system, and one way they’ve added some young talent has been through college free agency. An undrafted player, Carlile signed with the lightning last spring after finishing his season with Hockey East’s Merrimack College. At Merrimack, Carlile was a top-of-the-lineup defenseman who matched defensive prowess with offensive competence. Now with AHL Syracuse, Carlile’s game will likely be a bit more one-dimensional. Carlile is a six-foot-two defenseman who is at his best in his own zone. He’ll do anything to keep a puck from ending up at the back of his net, and he can at times be a ferocious physical presence. Carlile saw time on the Crunch’s penalty kill in his limited action last season and should have an expanded role there this coming year. Carlile’s defensive game is his calling card, and it should be good enough to allow him to be a trusted defensive defenseman for the Crunch next season. If he can find a way to squeeze some production out of his limited offensive toolbox, maybe he can become something more. Otherwise, his defensive game should be good enough to help him hold down an AHL job and maybe get some NHL games as a safe call-up option for the Lightning. - EH

8 - Gabriel Fortier C

Is Gabriel Fortier the next in a line of smaller, but impactful homegrown talents for the Lightning? Signs might be pointing to yes. Not only did Fortier earn a ten game callup last season in his first full pro year, but he proved to be an extremely impactful role player at the AHL level with Syracuse too. Tampa is always looking at ways to lower their cap number and that means banking on young players to step forward in checking line roles. Fortier’s game is tailored to do that. He is an animal on the forecheck, wreaking havoc with his speed and his tenaciousness. Fortier never seems to quit on a play and is already a competent two-way player who can handle penalty killing duties. How much offensive potential does Fortier have? He is not likely to be more than a quality third line player. There are some skill limitations at work here. The majority of his offensive chances are created through speed, hustle, and sound instincts. However, he should be able to carve out a nice career in that role. It would not be surprising to see him breaking camp with the Lightning this coming season and quickly earning the trust of Jon Cooper and his staff. At the very least, he should split the year between the NHL and AHL. - BO

9 - Gage Goncalves C

A late bloomer out of the Everett Silvertips program, there is a lot of hope internally that Goncalves can develop into the Lightning’s next lockdown third liner. His first pro season in Syracuse was a success as he finished fourth in goal scoring on the Crunch, while receiving significant powerplay time. The reason why the Crunch featured him on the man advantage so consistently has to do with his booming one timer and ability to control the half wall. However, he is more than just a pure shooter. He is a competitor at both ends and he has great instincts as a defensive player. As he becomes stronger, he should also become a physical standout in the defensive end who can be used in that aforementioned shutdown role. At this point, he looks like a more natural fit on the wing, but there is a chance they could shift him back to center for the upcoming year. He is versatile. This coming season Goncalves will return to the Crunch and the Lightning will be looking for him to take a step forward at both ends as a pro. If he does, he could position himself as a possible injury call up with an eye on a full-time role in 2023-24. - BO

10 - Cole Koepke LW

Already 24 years old, the Lightning have been very patient with Koepke’s development. He spent three years at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before finally turning pro last year. The goal scoring power winger turned in an impressive rookie AHL season, too. His 20 goals were good for third on the Crunch and he proved that his goal scoring ability from the collegiate level could translate well to the pro level. Armed with a heavy shot and a willingness to use his size physically, Koepke is a potential middle six, complementary goal scorer in the NHL. The key will be improving his speed and quickness. Although it should also be stated that Jon Cooper and the Lightning have found ways to use competitive forwards with footspeed issues, so long as they have other talents. Tampa Bay does not have a strong farm system at the moment, so Koepke will, undoubtedly be given a chance to be an NHL player at some point. Given his advanced age, that could occur as early as this season at some point. Otherwise, he can position himself with a chance the following year, so long as he continues to progress at the AHL level. - BO

11 - Simon Ryfors

There was definitely an adjustment period for Ryfors after signing last offseason from the SHL. He struggled to adapt to the AHL initially but was much better in the second half. Ryfors plays a high energy game and is strong away from the puck. Can he show more offensively in his second AHL season?

12 - Niko Huuhtanen

After a terrific WHL season with Everett, Huuhtanen has returned to Finland this year. The big ice will be great for him to continue to improve his quickness and overall skating ability. The big power forward owns a booming shot.

13 - Lucas Edmonds

Edmonds is a great success story from the OHL this past season. The late bloomer left Sweden and joined Kingston as an overager, becoming one of the league’s best and most consistent offensive players. His hands and offensive IQ are top notch, but he will need to continue to get quicker to transfer his production to the pro level.

14 - Roman Schmidt

The big defender has intriguing potential as an NHL blueliner. He is physical. His mobility is improving. He has a big point shot. He will return to Kitchener this year of the OHL and will look to become one of the league’s top two-way defenders.

15 - Daniil Pylenkov

The steady two-way defender is not flashy, but he is efficient at moving the puck and sound defensively. He has established himself as a KHL regular the last two years and could cross the pond in the near future if he shows continued growth.

16 - Nick Malik

Malik has slowly emerged as a quality goaltending prospect after finding ways to better harness his athleticism. He was one of Liiga’s top netminders last year and has firmly put a disastrous initial draft season behind him.

17 - Ilya Usau

The Lightning signed Usau as a free agent this offseason after a strong showing for Dinamo in the KHL and for Belarus internationally. The sturdy pivot is tough to separate from the puck and he is an adept passer. He’ll suit up in the AHL this season.

18 - Max Crozier

The talented powerplay quarterback is a mobile blueliner who is entering his senior season at Providence. The Lightning will be looking for him to take a step forward to become an elite NCAA, two-way blueliner this season.

19 - Dylan Duke

A skilled pivot and former U.S. NTDP’er, Duke was solid for Michigan in his freshman year. His upside remains high, but he will need to continue to focus his development on improving his quickness and strength on the puck.

20 - Eamon Powell

Thus far at the NCAA level, Powell’s development has been underwhelming and unspectacular. His feet are good, but he still hasn’t found the confidence to be a truly impactful two-way defender. Powell will return to Boston College for his junior season.

2021 NHL DRAFT: ATLANTIC DIVISION REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 30 Aug 2021 15:40:04 +0000

2021 NHL Draft Review

Time to review the draft, in depth. As I have done in previous seasons, this review will cover the league one division at a time. For each team, we will offer a quick summary of their draft class, a deeper look at their first pick/first rounder(s), and then a look at what we think to be the best value pick of their draft class, and a final look at their worst value pick. Once the divisions have all been covered, a final article will go over some other miscellaneous trends of the draft that was (odds & ends), and the annual McKeens shadow draft class. Let’s dig in.

Atlantic Division

Luleå's Fabian Lysell during the ice hockey match in the SHL between Rögle and Luleå on 5 January 2021 in Ängelholm.
Photo: Petter Arvidson / BILDBYRÅN

Boston Bruins

1 (21) Fabian Lysell, RW, Lulea HF (SHL)

3 (85) Brett Harrison, C, KOOVEE U20 (U20 SM-sarja)/Oshawa (OHL)

4 (117) Philip Svedeback, G, Vaxjo HC J20 (J20 Nationell)

5 (149) Oskar Jellvik, LW, Djurgardens IF J20 (J20 Nationell)

6 (181) Ryan Mast, D, Sarnia (OHL)

7 (213) Andre Gasseau, C, USNTDP (USHL)

7 (217) Ty Gallagher, D, USNTDP (USHL)

The Bruins had used a lot of their picks in recent years on lower-upside, higher floor players, giving them a system with a lot of players with NHL projections, but few looking like top half of the lineup types. This year, Boston took a different approach, largely drafting for upside, seeing which players dropped and finding a home for them. Five of their seven picks were selected lower than we had them ranked. I also appreciated how they spread out their picks among the different on-ice positions, selecting one goalie, two blueliners, two wingers, and two centers. As for geography, they selected three players out of Sweden, two from the USNTDP, and two Ontarians, one of whom spent the year in Finland with the cancellation of the OHL season, and the other who didn’t see game action last year. So, no major trends of note here, but they commendably let the draft come to them, not even making any draft day trades to move up, down, in, or out.

First round pick – Fabian Lysell, RW, Lulea HF (SHL), 21^st overall

Although his profile was not without warts – some clubs were disconcerted by his request to be moved from Frolunda to Lulea mid-season last year, Lysell reminded the hockey world what he is capable of with a stellar showing at the World Under 18 tournament, where he tied for the team lead in scoring on the Bronze Medal winning Swedish side. He is an electrifying puck handler, and his development will include learning when to play it simple, and when unleash his creativity and skill. His talent level is rare and gives him top line upside if it all clicks. A pick to get excited about.

Best value pick(s) – Ty Gallagher, D, USNTDP (USHL), 217^th overall, & Ryan Mast, D, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 181^st overall

Although the Bruins didn’t select a defender until the sixth round, they ended the draft with a pair of pretty good ones. Mast is a big, shutdown type with a right-handed shot. He has never displayed much of an offensive side, at any level of his development, but he has always known how to take care of business in his own end. We highly suspect that had he played at all this year, he would have been drafted far earlier. As for Gallagher, he is the polar opposite style of defender compared to Mast. He is a riverboat gambler who gets dinged for skating concerns, but as the year progressed, he timed his risks much better and his ability to positively impact a shift grew exponentially, which included a stellar showing for Team USA at the WU18s. His rawness can be very frustrating at times, but he tries to make things happen, and has enough skill and hockey sense to succeed enough to be of value.

Worst value pick – Oskar Jellvik, LW/C, Djurgardens IF J20 (J20 Nationell), 149^th overall

I though about naming fourth round pick Philip Svedeback, a goalie who had been passed over in his first year of eligibility and was unrated by us – or any other public facing outlet, but he was also drafted by Dubuque in the USHL draft and will spend next season stateside. Jellvik was considered by our Swedish analyst, but despite solid numbers in the Swedish junior leagues, he doesn’t seem very projectable, with an average frame, and tools that project in the sphere of average across the board. He is only a fifth rounder, but there isn’t much to dream on.

Photo Courtesy of the University of Michigan

Buffalo Sabres

1 (1) Owen Power, D, Michigan (NCAA/Big 10)

1 (14) Isak Rosen, RW, Leksands IF (SHL)

2 (33) Prokhor Poltapov, LW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

2 (53) Alexander Kisakov, LW, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

3 (88) Stiven Sardaryan, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

3 (95) Josh Bloom, LW Saginaw (OHL)

4 (97) Olivier Nadeau, RW, Shawinigan (QMJHL)

5 (159) Viljami Marjala, LW, Quebec (QMJHL)

6 (161) William von Barnekow, LW/RW, Tyringe SoSS (HockeyEttan)

6 (188) Nikita Novikov, D, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

7 (193) Tyson Kozak, C, Portland (WHL)

After four straight drafts of only selecting five or six players per year, it was good to see the moribund Buffalo franchise inject a ton of talent into their system, coming away from the 2021 draft with 11 new players, including multiple picks in each of the first three rounds. Still new GM Kevyn Adams has received criticism for a number of his early decisions running the Sabres, but it’s hard to find significant fault with his handling of this year’s draft, including the shipment of maligned defender Rasmus Ristolainen to Philadelphia for a mid-first round pick, Robert Hagg, and a 2023 second rounder in the hours before the first round began.

The picks themselves were very forward heavy, with nine forwards among the 11 picks, to go with two defenders. The Sabres also mixed up the pipelines they selected from, which included drafted players from a few areas that previous GM, Jason Botterill, notably overlooked in the CHL and Russia. Buffalo drafted one or two players from each CHL league, and four out of Russia. The remaining picks were from Sweden (2) and the NCAA (1 big one). As far as selecting for upside, which the McKeens rankings have a bias towards, most of the Sabres’ picks were selected around where we had them ranked – in fact, six of their selections were incredibly close to their ranking slot, while most of those we saw as reaches came in the last two rounds. We’ll get into the exception to that rule a little bit below.

First first round pick – Owen Power, D, Michigan (Big 10), 1^st overall

The pick of Power at first overall was a near no-brainer. He has virtually every tool and characteristic a team wants in a workhorse, number one defender. He is gigantic, skilled, solid in his own zone, skates well, even if he will never be mistaken for Cale Makar/Quinn Hughes. He has dominated against his age-peers, as well as against NHL veterans, such as he demonstrated at the World Championships. Power is going back to Michigan for his sophomore season, a decision supported publicly by Buffalo. He could play in the NHL now, but he could develop further collegiately, with a longer leash for risk taking. I still expect him to sign right after Michigan’s season ends, and finish up 2021-22 with the Sabres, what should be the beginning of a long run as a fixture for the team.

Second first round pick – Isak Rosen, RW/LW, Leksands IF (SHL), 14^th overall

Power was the clear choice at #1, but Rosen, selected with the primary pick received in the Ristolainen deal, was the prototype of the forwards that Buffalo targeted in the draft. Smallish (six of the nine forwards they drafted are either short, skinny, or both), incredibly skilled (the rest of the forwards all project to above average skill with the puck, although Rosen stands heads and shoulders above the others), and still just scratching the respective surfaces of their potential. Rosen had few opportunities to stick out when he was forced to play in the SHL last year due to the mid-season cancellation of Sweden’s junior leagues, but he proved his worth with a stellar showing at the U-18 championships.

Best value pick – Prokhor Poltapov, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 33^rd overall

In actuality, the Sabres did not select anyone below where we had him ranked, but as noted above, several came very, very close, including Poltapov, drafted exactly where we had him ranked. It would have been easy to go in a different direction after the selection of Rosen in the middle of the first, as Poltapov has a profile with a few similarities in size, and skill-based style of play, but the Sabres system needs a lot more skill to rise through the ranks, and I would be hard pressed to say that he had the most pure skill of anyone available after the first round was completed. I for one would love to watch a future forward line with Rosen and Poltapov on the flanks.

Worst value pick – Stiven Sardaryan, F, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 88^th overall

We did not have Sardaryan ranked at all, even in our extended list of roughly 600 names. That isn’t to say that he should not have been drafted under any circumstances, but that we felt that his production in the Russian junior leagues, where he was actually a teammate of Poltapov’s, was underwhelming. We were also not the only outlet to ignore him. Maybe he wasn’t being afforded enough opportunities, as he did not want to sign with the KHL club, given his desire to play collegiately at the University of New Hampshire. Sardaryan is expected to take his next steps in the USHL, where Youngstown drafted him this year. If Buffalo believes in his skill set, more power to them. But it seems very likely that he would have still been available one or two rounds later than where the Sabres selected him.

Frölunda's Simon Edvinsson during the ice hockey match in the SHL between Rögle and Frölunda on 28 December 2020 in Ängelholm.
Photo: Petter Arvidson / BILDBYRÅN

Detroit Red Wings

1 (6) Simon Edvinsson, D, Vasteras IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)

1 (15) Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton (WHL)

2 (36) Shai Buium, D, Sioux City (USHL)

3 (70) Carter Mazur, LW, Tri-City (USHL)

4 (114) Redmond Savage, C, USNTDP (USHL)

5 (134) Liam Dower Nilsson, C, Frolunda J20 (SuperElit)

5 (155) Oscar Plandowski, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL)

6 (166) Pasquale Zito, C, Windsor (OHL)

As General Manager of the Red Wings, Steve Yzerman knows who he wants at the top, and grabs them, no matter how iconoclastic the selection is at that point. See Seider, Moritz from two years ago. Seen as a surprising overdraft at the time, he is now one of the top prospects in the sport and seemingly ready to break into the NHL now. The Wings took an elite-skilled forward up top last year in Lucas Raymond, but returned to building from the back out this year. At sixth overall, they selected a defender who holds some similarities to Seider in Simon Edvinsson, as big, smooth skaters with men’s league experience and untapped athleticism. Edvinsson may not be as advanced now as Seider was when he was drafted, but his tools give him a slightly higher upside if he can put it all together. Not long after selecting the big Swedish defender, Detroit traded a late 1^st rounder (part of the return from the Anthony Mantha trade) to Dallas to pick up the #15 pick, which they used to select the first goalie in the draft, the towering Sebastian Cossa. Many had Cossa ranked behind Sweden’s Jesper Wallstedt, but Yzerman likes who he likes and Cossa is a Wing.

Pick shuffling was a bit of theme for Detroit in this draft, as they did it again in the second round to grab USHL defender Shai Buium, and then traded down in the fourth round in order to acquire an extra pick in the fifth round. In the end, the eight players selected by the Red Wings were nicely divided between the positions, with two other defenders taken after Edvinsson, four forwards, and the one goalie in Cossa. They drafted two out of Sweden, three college-bound players from the USHL, and one player from each of the three CHL leagues. When the final chapter of this draft class is written, it will be judged on the top three picks’ (Edvinsson, Cossa, Buium) abilities to prevent goals far more than the production numbers any of the forwards may eventually put up.

First first round pick – Simon Edvinsson, D, Frolunda HC, SHL, 6^th overall

If Moritz Seider is the right-side first pairing defender of the future, we have to see Edvinsson as his partner on the left. A massive blueliner who has – by far – the best combination of speed and puck skills of any defender in this draft class, he spent most of his draft year playing against men in Sweden after the junior league was shut down, playing double digit games in both of Sweden’s top two leagues. He is rawer than Seider was in the latter’s draft year, but I expect him to continue to develop in the SHL this year, and his upside is as a Norris Trophy finalist.

Second first round pick – Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 15^th overall

The first goalie selected in the 2021 draft, Cossa was practically unbeatable in the WHL this year, with a .941 save percentage, and 17 wins in 19 games. The latter stat is not really that telling, but the first number is, and is a continuation of stellar netminding that Cossa has provided as far back as he has trackable stats. Between his size, athleticism, and ability to read the play develop, he should be expected to be the heir apparent to the crease in Detroit, even if we believed that Jesper Wallstedt, who Minnesota drafted five picks later, was the better prospect.

Best value pick – Liam Dower Nilsson, C, Frolunda J20 (J20 Nationell), 134^th overall

A remarkably polished, two-way center, Dower Nilsson is no one’s idea of a top six center, but he played a shutdown role as captain for Team Sweden at the U18 tournament and put up impressive numbers in both Sweden’s junior and third-tier men’s leagues last year. The skill set does not support those numbers continuing as a higher-level pro, but he can find a way to contribute and should have been selected at least one full round earlier than where Detroit nabbed him.

Worst value pick – Carter Mazur, LW, Tri-City Storm (USHL), 70^th overall

In his second year of draft eligibility, Mazur had a great season captaining Tri-City, and being drafted by his hometown team is a great story. He is a fun player to watch and a good reminder that development is not linear, as he did take a huge developmental step last year to earn being drafted. He ends up as the worst value pick however, over the anonymous Pasquale Zito, because Zito was a late round pick and Mazur was taken in the third round. Mazur’s tools don’t line up with his production and he lacks any one tool that would come up in an elevator pitch. If he reaches his ceiling as a bottom six winger, the pick will be correctly deemed a success, but there were still players on the board who have higher projected ceilings.

Mackie Samoskevich.. Photo Dan Hickling

Florida Panthers

1 (24) Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago (USHL)

2 (56) Evan Nause, D, Quebec (QMJHL)

4 (120) Vladislav Lukashevich, D, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL)

5 (152) Kirill Gerasimyuk, G, SKA Varyagi (VHL)

6 (184) Jakub Kos, LW, Ilves U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

7 (210) Braden Hache, D, Kingston (OHL)

While I absolutely adored Bill Zito’s first draft class last year – it seemed as if he was simply drafting the best player among those remaining from the McKeens list at times – this one feels much more “meh”. Not a bad class by any stretch, just uninspiring. The 2021 Florida draft class consists of a goalie, three blueliners, and two wingers. The six picks were divided evenly between European talents (two Russians and a Czech) and North Americans (one each from the USHL, QMJHL, and OHL – the last of which spent the year on the sidelines given the OHL’s cancellation).

There was no real trend to note among the Panthers draftees. They took players with grades among the best in skating (Samoskevich) and physicality (Hache) in the draft class, but on the other hand, guys like Nause and Lukashevich are relatively well-rounded prospects, without any one selling tool. The five skaters all have decent size (Samoskevich is only 5-11”, but built stocky), and Hache and Kos both qualify as big, so perhaps size was important, although not in the same way that it was for the Ottawa Senators. There was one notable element of the Panthers experience at the draft that was not related to the players they selected, but connected to a pick they dealt away from 2022. On day two of the draft, the Panthers sent their 2022 first round pick, along with goaltending prospect Devon Levi to Buffalo for Sam Reinhart. So, if we include that deal in our assessment of this draft class, it’s an obvious win. We really shouldn’t though, so like all draft classes, we will wait and see.

First round pick – Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago Steel (USHL), 24^th overall

Top end speed and top end skill. Based on the first half of his season, Samoskevich is not only a first round pick, but a top 15 pick, to boot. He is an incredible skater, combining both great speed and great edges, making him a four-directional threat. His puck skills were just as impressive. He utilizes his linemates expertly, uses his feet to create new passing lanes and very slick hands to put the puck on his linemate’s sticks. His draft season was interrupted by an injury, and for a lengthy stretch, Samoskevich was not the same player upon his return, although he still flashed it enough to be worthy of being picked where Florida called his name. He will be spending the next (at least) two years on campus with Michigan, and teamed up with a good finisher, will be deadly.

Best value pick – Vladislav Lukashevich, D, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL), 120^th overall

Second rounder Evan Nause was a consideration here, but he was never going to go more than 10 or so picks higher than where the Panthers selected him. Lukashevich, a surprise omission from the Russian U18 tournament roster, was seen as more likely to be taken as much as a full round higher than where Florida drafted him, even if he went higher than where we had him ranked. Although tall, he is physically immature, but all of his tools grade out as average or better. He skates well, he is a promising mover of the puck, and he does a solid job of battling for the puck even though most opponents have more bulk on their frames. He will never be flashy enough to be a top prospect, but he has sleeper written all over him.

Worst value pick – Kirill Gerasimyuk, G, SKA Varyagi (VHL), 152^nd overall

Very young for this draft class (he has a late August birthdate), Gerasimyuk was not on to many radars for the draft, considering the limited playing time he has so far had in his career. This isn’t really bad value, per se, just a pick with more risk attached than any of Florida’s others this time, even if Florida has done well drafting goalies.

Oliver Kapanen, Photo by Dan Hickling.

Montreal Canadiens

1 (31) Logan Mailloux, D, SK Lejon (HockeyEttan)/London (OHL)

2 (63) Riley Kidney, C, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)

2 (64) Oliver Kapanen, C, Kalpa U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

3 (87) Dmitri Kostenko, D, Lada Togliatti (VHL)

4 (113) William Trudeau, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL)

5 (142) Daniil Sobolev, D, Windsor (OHL)

5 (150) Joshua Roy, RW, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)

6 (191) Xavier Simoneau, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)

7 (214) Joe Vrbetic, G, North Bay (OHL)

I am generally not one to pass absolute judgement on a draft class before five years have passed, and even then, judgement will be provisional. But this class, despite including some solid players, is worse than a dud. And it earned that branding on day one, with the absurdly heartless selection of Logan Mailloux. The rumors that had followed the defender around for the previous few months had been enough for some clubs to mark him as a “DO NOT DRAFT”, but once the full details of his actions came to light, many others joined. When the player himself asked not to be drafted, there could only have been a handful of teams left who would even have considered him for the seventh round, much less round one. AITA? Yes, Mr. Bergevin, you are. The selection was callous, brazen, and an utter inability, or disregard to, reading the room.

In fairness to the other eight players selected by Montreal’s scouting staff, a few words then. Usually happy to minimize their QMJHL drafting, the Canadiens actually went heavy on their home turf this year, with four QMJHL draftees, including one (Xavier Simoneau), a third year eligible, who put up big numbers for years, but was ignored for his size. His recognition as the QMJHL and CHL Humanitarian of the Year two years ago does not redress the bad Mailloux karma, but good that Simoneau was drafted. Outside of the Q’, they selected two from Russia – one of whom was planning to play last year in the OHL and experienced a lost season as a result, one from Finland, and Mailloux and one other from the OHL. Their picks focused more on the defensive side of the game, with four blueliners plus one goalie, compared with four forwards. Size does not seem to have been a primary consideration.

First round pick – Logan Mailloux, D, SK Lejon (HockeyEttan)/London Knights (OHL), 31^st overall

Enough digital ink has been spilled by myself and many others about why Montreal should not have drafted Mailloux from a personal/personnel standpoint. But Montreal drafted him anyway and we should take a brief moment to discuss Mailloux as a hockey player. If he had not committed the crimes that he did, he would have been a reasonable, albeit not a slam dunk as a late first rounder, as we saw him in the second round before the full story of his actions was revealed. He is very big, moves well, plays a physical game. His offensive tools are fine, but his game is very raw and still mistake-prone. He is not a horrible prospect looking only at on-ice potential, but he is 100% not the caliber of player for whom you ignore or downplay his off-ice track record.

Best value pick – Joshua Roy, RW/C, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL), 150^th overall

Although his numbers have not yet caught up with his inherent skill set, it was not that long ago that Roy was coveted highly enough to be taken first overall in the QMJHL Entry Draft. Some teams were turned off by the fact that he forced a trade way from Saint John to Sherbrooke, even though it was largely a matter of homesickness, as his family was not able to leave Quebec to visit him in the Maritimes, due to COVID restrictions. So, I ask you, how does that push a gifted forward this far down draft boards while Mailloux’ actions seemingly bumped him up? It really boggles the mind. As for Roy, he has a great shot and fantastic puck skills, but his skating needs some work. Moderate improvements to his mobility could give him middle six value.

Worst value pick – Mailloux & Dmitri Kostenko, D, Lada Togliatti (VHL), 87^th overall

Enough about Mailloux. Kostenko isn’t bad. We had him ranked just outside our top 223, meaning we would not have drafted him if we were the GM of every single team, but we would have considered him and would not fault a team calling out his name in the fifth round or later. We just didn’t see a reason to really pull for him either. His offensive tools are solid, but his skating needs work, and his ability to process the game and make correct choices is lacking. Montreal has been right (at our expense) before with Russian defenders, as was the case with Alexander Romanov, who we also were not fond of, and if Kostenko is another Romanov, more power to him and Montreal. Making that bet in the third round is rich for me, though.

Tyler Boucher, Photo by Rena Laverty, USA Hockey

Ottawa Senators

1 (10) Tyler Boucher, RW, USNTDP (USHL)

2 (39) Zach Ostapchuk, C, Vancouver (WHL)

2 (49) Benjamin Roger, D, London (OHL)

3 (74) Oliver Johansson, C, Timra IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)

4 (123) Carson Latimer, RW, Edmonton (WHL)

7 (202) Chandler Romeo, D, Hamilton (OHL)

Big boys only here. Ottawa gave us the first real surprise of the 2021 draft by selecting USNTDP power forward Tyler Boucher with the 10^th overall selection. More on Boucher below, but the pick was indicative that the Senators would be hunting for size and strength with their picks this year. Of their six picks, all are at least 6-0” tall, with three of them listed as over 6-3”. Not only tall, but only two of their picks weigh in at below 198 pounds. Unfortunately, in most of these picks, it looks like Ottawa sacrificed playing ability to get those big boys, which is not to say that they won’t see NHL value out of any of these picks, but that the approach will likely mean that they receive less value at the NHL level than they would have if skill/ability was their primary concern. Each and every player selected by Ottawa was drafted far ahead of where we had the player in question ranked, something we cannot say about any other team.

Beyond the size issue, there isn’t much noteworthy about the Senators’ picks, taken as a class. Lacking picks in either of the fifth or sixth rounds, but owning an extra second rounder, the team ended up with two players each from the WHL and OHL, one from the USHL, and one European, a Swede with the best skills of anyone among their picks. The picks were evenly split positionally, with two defenders, two centers, and two wingers.

First round pick – Tyler Boucher, RW, USNTDP (USHL), 10^th overall

A power winger who can dominate physically, Boucher, son of long time NHL goalie Brian Boucher, hasn’t topped the point-per-game rate since he was playing U14 hockey in New Jersey. He has decent offensive tools, when looked at in a vacuum, but has never put them to consistent use. There was some thought that some team would call out his name in the late first round, but 10^th overall was a shock, and that’s without even considering his injury history that kept him off the ice for much of his draft year. Some pundits reported that they looked to trade down, but couldn’t work out a deal that would still ensure they could land Boucher. I strongly suspect that this selection set the stage for a few other less-talented, but big/physical/gritty players to go in the first round that otherwise might not have.

Best value pick – Carson Latimer, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 123^rd overall

Technically, the Senators didn’t have a value pick this year, but Latimer is the closest to qualifying. He has good size with some physicality to go along with it, some skill with the puck, two-way ability, and knows how to fit in in a supporting role, which will be his sole path to the NHL. This is not a high upside player, but with some moderate improvement to his skating stride, could turn out to be a solid fourth round gamble.

Worst value pick – Zack Ostapchuk, LW, Vancouver Giants (WHL), 39^th overall

In a draft class full of reaches, the selection of Ostapchuk in the early second round was the most egregious. His pros are his plus size, above average mobility, and nascent puck skills. None of those elements are truly top six caliber, and he hadn’t produced at a top six rate since his U15 days. This pick was made around two rounds too high. Ostapchuk making the NHL at all is no guarantee, and it is very hard to see anything more than a fourth rounder. The Senators went all in on their size strategy, and I have to assume that it is because the organization feels that the young players already in the pipeline will be taking over the top roles anyway. Regardless, there is a good chance that Ostapchuk would have been available one round – or more – later.

Dylan Duke. Photo Rena Laverty, USA Hockey

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 (96) Roman Schmidt, D, USNTDP (USHL)

4 (126) Dylan Duke, LW, USNTDP (USHL)

5 (160) Cameron MacDonald, C, Saint John (QMJHL)

6 (192) Alex Gagne, D, Muskegon (USHL)

7 (196) Daniil Pylenkov, D, Podolsk (KHL)

7 (211) Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH)

7 (224) Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Tappara U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

The last team to make their first pick this year, and then the last team to make any pick, a team’s draft class after winning the Stanley Cup – much less winning back-to-back Cups – is almost an afterthought. But we should never forget how instrumental good drafting – in all rounds – has been to Tampa’s recent run of success. We can’t say if the next Brayden Point will emerge from one of the seven players Tampa selected, all in the third round or later, but we shouldn’t be surprised if one or more of these mid-to-late round picks far exceeds his expected draft slot value.

Both of their first two selections (Roman Schmidt and Dylan Duke) were from the USNTDP. Two other picks were of US-based players headed for college. With the other three selections, we have one player each from Russia, Finland, and the QMJHL. The picks were a simple mix of four forwards and three defenders. Size seems to have been a consideration, with six of the seven picks (all except Duke) coming at a minimum size of 6-1”, 190. They had no problem picking up players who had been passed over in previous drafts, with Alex Gagne in his second year of eligibility and Daniil Pylenkov in his third.

First pick – Roman Schmidt, D, USNDTP (USHL), 96^th overall

Tampa’s first pick was the final selection of the third round, and with Schmidt, they added a physical specimen who combines immense size (6-6”, 209) with remarkable skating ability, and a willingness to play hard. The rest of his game s still pretty raw and prone to inconsistency on both sides of the puck, but early in the season he was given some consideration as a potential first rounder because of his two higher-end traits. Schmidt’s recent decision to forego college for Kitchener of the OHL does shorten his path to the pro game. He looks like an intriguing option for a bottom pair now, but if he adds offense to his game, that projection can easily improve.

Best value pick – Dylan Duke, C, USNTDP (USHL), 126^th overall

To be honest, had Tampa drafted Duke in the third and Schmidt in the fourth, it would have lined up far better in terms of the eventual value we expect out of each player, but size was paramount throughout this draft class, so flipping the script on these two makes sense, as there was probably a good chance that Schmidt would have been taken by another team before the Lightning had the chance to draft in the fourth round. Although smaller, Duke plays a very gritty game, thriving near the crease. He will have to learn to play on a lower line next year at Michigan, but his style is suited for that type of role. He isn’t (likely) the next Brayden Point, but Duke is likely to have had the greatest NHL value once all is said and done with this Tampa draft class.

Worst value pick – Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH), 211^th overall

Truthfully, the only concern with Flinton is that nothing is really known about him. He played in a smaller prep school in his home state of New Hampshire and has no experience against top competition. He’s big and strong and has a solid snap shot, but he is mostly a mystery. Committed to Dartmouth for the 2022-23 season, he is expected to play in the USHL next season, most likely with Cedar Rapids. Flinton may be their worst value pick, but seeing as the pick was made late in the seventh round, where expected value is near nil, we at least know that the scout who pushed for him is happy, and morale is never a bad thing. This is more a statement that Tampa got solid to very good value out of the other six picks they made.

Matthew Knies. Photo by DAN HICKLING

Toronto Maple Leafs

2 (57) Matthew Knies, LW, Tri-City (USHL)

5 (153) Ty Voit, C, Sarnia (OHL)

6 (185) Vycheslav Peksa, G, Irbis Kazan (MHL)

This is easy. The Leafs only made three selections. One each from the USHL, the cancelled OHL, and Russia. Not much sense looking for patterns in a sample size of three, but the organization’s willingness to trade away their picks earlier in the year, after they were widely known to be one of the clubs who did not allow its scouts to attend games in person all year, is telling. They approached this draft class as a near afterthought, which I strongly suspect was a result of the bulk of leagues playing significantly condensed schedules. This is as close to opting out as a team could reasonably do.

First pick – Matthew Knies, LW, Tri-City Storm (USHL), 57^th overall

Knies had some first round buzz before the season started, considering his premium size and the playmaking chops he demonstrated with aplomb in 2019-20 as a USHL rookie. A bout with COVID led to a very slow start this year, both in terms of production and literally as a skater. He just looked heavy-footed. Knies picked it up as the season progressed and had some going back to the previous first rounder impression. He will have to improve his skating to maximize the rest of his game, but he is a smart enough forward to be able to succeed in a middle six if he can just get up to average mobility. Headed to play for Minnesota, Toronto will not rush him.

Best value pick – Ty Voit, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 153^rd overall

The Pittsburgh area native looked like a very promising playmaker as an OHL rookie in 2019-20, and might have gone off the board much higher than the late fifth round if he were bigger, or if the OHL had even an abbreviated season this year. He flashes high end puck skills, skates very well, and showed a clear propensity for making good decisions when he debuted with the Sting. He is no sure thing, but there are markers here of previous Toronto mid-round picks who either worked out, or are still young and trending in the right direction, like Adam Brooks, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mikhail Abramov, or Nick Abruzzese.

Worst value pick – Vyacheslav Peksa, G, Irbis Kazan (MHL), 185^th overall

By process of elimination, the worst value can only have been from Toronto’s third and final selection, the unheralded netminder from Russia. Peksa was not on anyone’s radar. He played in only two games at any level in 2019-20, and 18 last year, where he was the backup to Vladimir Mosin in the regular season and played behind 2020 Toronto pick Artur Akhtyamov in the postseason. My guess is that the Leafs were comfortable with Peksa based on tracking the development of Akhtyamov. We will know a lot more about Peksa if he can finally play a full season as a starter. The fact he hasn’t done that yet – and he is already 19 years old - increases the risk factor. It would be easier to understand taking this type of a risk if the Leafs had a more normal sized draft class, but with only three players selected altogether, a more careful approach would have been preferred.

2021 NHL DRAFT: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 30 Aug 2021 15:36:00 +0000

Dylan Duke. Photo Rena Laverty, USA Hockey

3 (96) Roman Schmidt, D, USNTDP (USHL)

4 (126) Dylan Duke, LW, USNTDP (USHL)

5 (160) Cameron MacDonald, C, Saint John (QMJHL)

6 (192) Alex Gagne, D, Muskegon (USHL)

7 (196) Daniil Pylenkov, D, Podolsk (KHL)

7 (211) Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH)

7 (224) Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Tappara U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

First pick – Roman Schmidt, D, USNDTP (USHL), 96^th overall

Best value pick – Dylan Duke, C, USNTDP (USHL), 126^th overall

Worst value pick – Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH), 211^th overall

Daniil Pylenkov – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2026 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #25 Tampa Bay Lightning – Organization Overview – Top 15 Prospects

Prospect System Rank – 25th (Last Year - 29th) GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018 COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013

1. Sam O'Reilly, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

2. Benjamin Rautiainen, C, Tappara (Liiga)

3. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

4. Dylan Duke, LW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

5. Ethan Czata, C, Niagara IceDogs (OHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

6. Daniil Pylenkov, D, Dymano Moscow (KHL)

7. Jayson Shaugabay, RW, University of Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA)

8. Maxim Groshev, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

9. Everett Baldwin, D, Saint John's Sea Dogs (QMJHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

10. Joe Connor, LW, Northeastern University (NCAA)

11. Jan Golicic, D, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

12. Noah Steen, LW, Örebro HK (SHL) (Currently with Syracuse Crunch, AHL)

13. Marco Mignosa, RW, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

14. Ethan Samson, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

15. Lucas Murcuri, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 15 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #29

Tampa Bay Lightning Top-15 Prospects

1 - Sam O'Reilly

2 - Ethan Gauthier

3 - Max Crozier

4 - Ethan Czata

5 - Dylan Duke

6 - Connor Kurth

7 - Niko Huuhtanen

8 - Jack Finley

9 - Everett Baldwin

10 - Daniil Pylenkov

11- Jayson Shaugabay

12 - Gabriel Szturc

13 - Hagen Burrows

14 - Roman Schmidt

15 - Dyllan Gill

2025 NHL PROSPECTS REPORT: #26 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 15 NHL Affiliated Prospects

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTING – Top 15 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #30

Tampa Bay Lightning Top-15 Prospects

1. Conor Geekie

2. Ethan Gauthier

3. Isaac Howard

4. Niko Huuhtanen

5. Gage Goncalves

6. Max Crozier

7. Declan Carlile

8. Dylan Duke

9. Jack Finley

10. Daniil Pylenkov

11. Hagen Burrows

12. Hugo Alnefelt

13. Jayson Shaugabay

14. Lucas Edmonds

15. Gabriel Szturc

MCKEEN’S 2024 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #29 Tampa Bay Lightning – Organizational Overview – Top 15 Prospects

1. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)

2. Isaac Howard, LW, Michigan State University (NCAA)

3. Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

4. Gage Goncalves, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

5. Max Crozier, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

6. Declan Carlile, D, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

7. Hugo Alnefelt, G, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

8. Jack Finley, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

9. Dylan Duke, C, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

10. Daniil Pylenkov, D, Dynamo Moskva (KHL)

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #32

1. Isaac Howard

2. Ethan Gauthier

3. Niko Huuhtanen

4. Jack Finley

5. Jack Thompson

6. Hugo Alnefelt

7. Gage Goncalves

8. Lucas Edmonds

9. Dylan Duke

10. Jayson Shaugabay

11. Declan Carlilie

12. Daniil Pylenkov

13. Cole Koepke

14. Nick Malik

15. Roman Schmidt

Prospect System Rank – 25th (Last Year - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013