Darnell Nurse – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:46:49 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - JUNE 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) passes the puck in the second periodduring game three of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers on June 9, 2025 at Amerant Bank Arena, FL. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

It’s hard to be upset about reaching the Stanley Cup Final two years in a row, but coming up short losing to the Florida Panthers for the second straight season is a good reason to be grumpy. The Oilers were able to get over a slow start out of the gates and finished in third place in the Pacific Division with 101 points, trailing division winner Vegas and second place Los Angeles. Edmonton was again one of the top five-on-five teams and finished fourth in CorsiFor percentage (54.1) and third in expected goals for percentage (54.4). Surprisingly, even with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl they had the league’s 11th best offence with 259 goals and their power play ranked 12th in the league. A more balanced Oilers team is a good thing and a reason why they were able to advance to the Final again but allowed the 14th most goals. Getting hot at the end of the season and in the playoffs can work wonders, especially when two of the best players in the world are on the roster.

What’s Changed?

The Oilers parted ways with mercurial forward Evander Kane, trading him to Vancouver for a fourth-round pick. They also sent Viktor Arvidsson to Boston for a 2027 fifth-round pick but were able to boost their prospect profile by adding Hobey Baker Award winner Isaac Howard from Tampa Bay for prospect Sam O’Reilly. Howard had 26 goals and 26 assists at Michigan State last season in 37 games. They added free agent forward Andrew Mangiapane from Washington on a two-year, $7.2 million deal and center Curtis Lazar on a one-year deal. Edmonton also took care of guys in-house, too, with a four-year, $42 million extension for defenceman Evan Bouchard and an eight-year, $30.8 million extension for Trent Frederic. With Kane gone and the Oilers pressed up against the cap, it offers Howard and fellow prospect Matthew Savoie the chance to make a big impression.

What Would Success Look Like?

Winning the Stanley Cup is the goal. Coming so close two years in a row and falling short of making the Cup Final would be a massive letdown, particularly since they’re deep into the prime years of both McDavid and Draisaitl. That they’ve been able to rally hard in the second halves of the past two seasons and carried that momentum into the playoffs to keep rolling is a credit to them. A healthy Zach Hyman makes a big difference in the lineup, too, and his return will make them even more dangerous. Getting goalie Stuart Skinner back on point and playing like he did two years ago would go a long way, but allowing their top players to thrive and control the game works wonders when they’re the best in the world. Getting to the Stanley Cup Final is extremely difficult, especially in the Western Conference, but they’ve outdueled everyone on the way to the Final the last two years and worn out the Stars to the point they changed coaches. Make no mistake, it’s Cup or Bust in Edmonton.

What Could Go Wrong?

The Oilers sacrificed some of their veterans up front to open the door for younger players like Howard and Savoie to jump into the fire. It’s good to have McDavid, Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins there to guide them up the middle, yes, but the NHL is a difficult league and the margins to win in the West are thin. That said, those guys can all play and do well, but it won’t make a ton of difference if Skinner can’t play consistently well in goal. Calvin Pickard showed he could fill in a pinch and play well enough, but if Skinner struggles, the Oilers will not be able to win the Stanley Cup and they’ll be on the prowl for a new No. 1 goalie immediately, especially in-season if it’s that apparent.

Top Breakout Candidate

The bar is set high for Isaac Howard. He was a monster at Michigan State and was an easy choice for the Hobey Baker Award. He was Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2022, 31st overall, and having him head to the Oilers where he’ll get the prime opportunity to use his impressive offensive skills with their premier players means all eyes will be on him to have a big year as a rookie. If he jumps right into the NHL with no AHL games played, that’ll only up the hype on him.

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	35	85	120	1.56

Winning a Stanley Cup is the only thing left on McDavid’s checklist. He’s done just about everything else you could ask for, adding a Gold Medal at the Four Nations tournament to his trophy case this year where he scored the Golden Goal for Team Canada. Hockey’s greatest prize, however, has always been just out of his reach. He has come close the last two seasons, running into a brick wall in Florida. Playing through an injury the first year and not being able to generate any offence once the series got to crunch time. It takes more than one player to win a cup and the Oilers current run is proof of that, because if their star player is just a fraction off, the rest of the team hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. McDavid still has plenty of kicks at the can left, only 28 years old and looking swift as ever even after an early season ankle injury. He has more competition now as the league’s best player with other elite talents emerging around the league, but he still sets the standard for them. There aren’t a lot of players who can create quick-strike offence as good as him. His lethal combination of speed and finesse is always going to put him in that upper echelon because it’s a gift that most players don’t have. It doesn’t take much for him to gain the zone and find a way to the net and he has gotten better at playing the half-rink game on the cycle, breaking defences down from the perimeter and threading the needle with his passing. This past season was somewhat of a down year for him, if you can call 100 points in 67 games bad, but he raised his game again in the playoffs. Getting over that final hurdle is all that is left for McDavid.

Leon Draisaitl

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	54	60	114	1.44

Last year felt like the first time Draisaitl wasn’t viewed as just a McDavid sidepiece, which seems silly because he’s won a Hart Trophy before. While he wasn’t completely separated from McDavid, Draisaitl did spend most of last season centering his own line and it featured a revolving door of players as the Oilers were trying to figure out who works best there. Draisaitl still had an unbelievable season, leading the league in goals and improving his all-around game. Driving play away from McDavid has been the issue with Draisaitl throughout his career, as the slower pace that he plays at gets exposed when the game opens up and he usually needs to outscore his problems. Last season he turned the corner here, Edmonton winning the scoring chance battle heavily while he was on the ice and the main reason why he was a runner up for the Hart Trophy. He is a very difficult player to defend. His slow, clunky skating stride is deceptive because he can play the game with a lot of pace despite that. He’s one of the best playmakers in the league, doing some of it through brute strength while being double covered and being gifted with incredible hands to put passes on the tape without needing to slow or settle the play down. His patented move, however, is scoring off the one-timer from the goal-line. Something that nobody in the league does right now with same level of frequency and consistency as him. Draisaitl has more than proved himself in his own right, it’s all about winning the big one now.

Zach Hyman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	30	28	58	0.76

Expecting Hyman to repeat his 54-goal season was unreasonable, as that was one of the most unprecedented career years from a player in recent memory. A big body with a nose for the net, Hyman’s going to get a lot of chances from around the crease with McDavid setting him up. He has mastered the art of “catching” pucks with his body at the side of the net, making himself a bigger target and settling the puck down to make a move at the net instead of trying to jam the puck in. He’s a rare case of a player of his type signing a high dollar UFA contract at 30 years old and having back-to-back career seasons. His skillset matched what the Oilers needed at the time and he’s getting the elite linemates, but it was still a shock to see him score at the rate he did. The crash to earth finally came last season, although 27 goals is about what you would expect from a 32-year-old who gets most of his looks from around the net. It’s hard to say if this is the new normal for him because his track record with the Oilers was so extreme up to that point and he still created a high rate of chances but experienced a shooting percentage dip that happens to all players. Not having him available for the final was devastating to the Oilers, as his ability to get to the net seamlessly is something that’s easy to take for granted until it’s not there anymore.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	19	36	55	0.71

The utility player of the Oilers roster, “RNH” can be found either on McDavid’s wing or centering the Oilers third line. It’s normal for Edmonton to fall back on putting him with McDavid because of the team’s wing depth and RNH knows the nuances of how to read off the team’s star. He’s not going to get a lot of puck touches, so he needs to do what he can to get open or create space for McDavid when he’s playing that role. On the 3C, he is more of a pure checker, playing a dump-and-chase game or letting some of the speedier linemates do that work. His five-on-five production fluctuates heavily because of this. He’s a smart player and always in the right position, but he’s rarely one of the last two guys to touch the puck on a scoring chance. The power play is a different story, as that’s where he makes his money. He’s all over the zone to help connect the dots between McDavid and Draisaitl, making Edmonton’s power play one of the most lethal units in the league the past few years. His production there has taken a dip from the unsustainable 45 points he put up in 2023, but he’s still an integral part of what makes them click on the power play. A support player who can have the odd game where he takes over is where his niche is right now.

Andrew Mangiapane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	18	22	40	0.50

While not reaching the heights he once did in Calgary, Mangiapane is a great player to have in the middle of your roster. He brings a lot of energy on the forecheck and has the skill to be a contributing piece on a scoring line. Good combination of speed, hands and a willingness to go to the net, he is one of the players penciled in as a potential linemate for McDavid. This role would be new for him, as he didn’t get to play with Gaudreau much in Calgary and he spent most of last season on Washington’s checking lines with Nic Dowd and Lars Eller. The fit with McDavid is intriguing, as Mangiapane has the speed to keep up with him and brings something different to the table than a Zach Hyman or a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a smaller, water bug type of player. The concern with him is that he’s scored more than 20 goals only once and it was during a season where he had an unsustainably high shooting percentage with most of his chances coming around the net. He should get some similar opportunities if he is McDavid’s linemate, but it’s something Mangiapane has yet to repeat. If he doesn’t stick there, the baseline to his game is solid enough that he should be one of the Oilers best second or third liners. He’s an excellent defensive player and someone who offers a counter-attack element with the speed that he plays with. There’s a wide range of outcomes for the Oilers newest winger, as he’s a great low-risk, high-reward addition.

Kasperi Kapanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	9	14	23	0.31

Kapanen looked like a player who could be out of the league within a year at the start of last season. He found himself on waivers after only 10 games and the Oilers took a flier on the speedy winger. While he didn’t set the world on fire, he was a regular fixture in their lineup and scored one of the biggest goals of his career to clinch a second round series win over Vegas. The strengths and flaws in Kapanen’s game are obvious. He has blazing speed but is prone to getting tunnel vision when he gets the puck and not use his linemates well. His speed makes him an asset on the penalty kill but doesn’t have great awareness when defending in his own zone, so you get extreme results on both ends. As evidenced by Kapanen having nights where he was one of the Oilers best wingers and others where he was bad enough to be a healthy scratch the following game. Kapanen will have some games where he’s an impact player, as we saw in the playoffs and that was enough for the Oilers to keep him around for another year. While he had his moments, his last season with more than 10 goals was three years ago, so he does need to show more production if he wants to stay in the NHL.

Adam Henrique

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	14	17	31	0.39

It’s hard to say if Henrique is entering the twilight of his career or adjusting to a lower line role for the first time in his career. Even when he was having his best seasons with the Ducks, he never put up dazzling point totals and most of his strengths come away from the puck rather than someone who leads the charge. Moving to Edmonton was his first real stint as a complementary piece, as he was a top six player with the Ducks and immediately put on the third line with the Oilers. It makes things easier for Henrique in terms of matchups, but he also had new types of linemates to adjust to with more straight-line players like Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark. It’s tougher to play the same level of complementary hockey when your linemates aren’t creating as many chances as they did when you were in the top six. Henrique can still make the most out of what he has to work with though. He is low key one of the better finishers in the league, shooting at over 15 percent for most of his career, is a workhorse on the penalty kill and his strengths mostly revolve around his hockey sense rather than his raw skill. He also brings some versatility with the ability to play both center and wing, which opens the door for him to play in the top six again if the Oilers feel it’s necessary. The third line center spot is likely his home for most of the season, though.

Vasily Podkolzin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	26	38	0.46

Having only 20 points while attached at the hip to Leon Draisaitl might make you write off Podkolzin, but there is more to the story with him. As one of Edmonton’s better forwards at generating zone exits, he played a small part in stabilizing Draisaitl’s defensive game. It’s a huge relief to Draisaitl, because he didn’t have to cover as much ground in his own zone and having someone else who could win battels along the wall and make the quick plays out of the zone is a huge boost. His big upper body makes him a solid puck protector, and he skates well for a larger forward. Rounding out some of the details in his offensive game is the next step for him. He found a niche as Draisaitl’s running mate but needs to start capitalizing on the chances that were setup for him. It’s something that will make him a permanent fixture in the top six instead of a placeholder. It’s uncertain if he has the skill to be a dynamic offensive player, as he was known more for his two-way game as a prospect and has shown an up-and-down trajectory as far as his point-production goes. Right now, we know he’s an NHLer, it’s just a matter of taking things to the next level.

Trent Frederic

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	15	20	35	0.43

Despite scoring only one goal in 22 playoff games, dealing with injuries and having an overall down season, the Oilers liked Frederic enough to extend him for eight years, signing the contract immediately after the season ended. At his peak, Frederic is a good fit on the Oilers, a third liner who can play both positions, forecheck and get you 35-40 points isn’t anything to scoff at. There’s more of a need for a player like him with Adam Henrique getting older too. His down season was also influenced more by poor finishing from linemates than anything else, as he played mostly with checking line players in Boston and his skillset was a little redundant alongside net front guys Justin Brazeau and Mark Kastelic. The Oilers saw a lot of what he brings to the table outside of scoring in the playoffs, being a steady defensive presence who can anchor a third line and help you get out of the defensive zone. His offensive game was just very limited, creating most of his chances off of rebounds and deflections while not doing much to drive play in the other two zones. With Boston, he had his best results with skilled players in the middle of the roster like Charlie Coyle or Morgan Geekie. They could set him up in the slot and let Frederic thrive as the high forwards in the offensive zone. The Oilers don’t have the same type of players to match him with, but they have time to figure out the best use for their new winger.

DEFENCE

Evan Bouchard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	17	56	73	0.90

It’s rare for a defenceman to score at a point-per-game pace in a full playoff run and have it be a significant step down from his production the previous year. It wasn’t long ago where Bouchard still had a lot to prove and some were questioning if he could be a reliable top four guy instead of just a power play specialist. Two years later, he’s forced himself into the conversation as one of the best defencemen in the league. Point production can cloud perception and while Bouchard certainly eats on the power play, his offensive game at even strength is almost unmatched. He patrols the blue line so well, shooting for deflections and moving the puck from the point to the danger areas with relative ease. He takes some pressure off McDavid and Draisaitl with how often he handles the puck and joins the rush or the cycle, allowing them to get lost in coverage. Defenders have to respect Bouchard from the perimeter too, as he’s always a threat to score deep and if you give him space, he can pick a corner or just blast it over the goalie’s shoulder. His strengths, breaking the puck out under pressure, cover some of his flaws with his awareness in the defensive zone because the Oilers don’t have to defend much when he’s on the ice. Where he gets exposed is after a turnover, as he doesn’t make the best reads when it’s a panic situation. It’s made some analysts hesitant to classify Bouchard as an elite defenceman even if he checks most of the boxes. He has improved every year, so this is something that can get better with more time and experience.

Jake Walman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	6	26	32	0.46

Walman climbed the ladder from a seventh defenceman and part-time forward in St. Louis to heavy top-pair defenceman in Detroit in a short period of time. It was a shocker when the Red Wings dealt him to San Jose, paying the Sharks to take him, because he had played such a massive role on that team. The Sharks welcomed him on their top-pair with open arms, and he was near the top of the league in ice time per game. He was their lone proven mobile defenceman and did an excellent job of calming the waters on a rebuilding roster. Walman’s game is all about skating and puck moving. He’s an excellent one-man breakout and he defends with his legs more than his body, not putting up huge points but making life easier for San Jose’s young forwards by keeping the puck moving north at all times, while doing his best to put out fires in his own zone. The Sharks dealing him made sense on the surface, as they’re not going to be competitive for a while, but Walman’s roster spot is not going to be easily replaced. He is more properly slotted in the 2^nd pair slot, but the potential of pairing him with Bouchard to have one dominant pair is still on the table for them. Walman spent most of the playoffs on the other pairs, carrying along some of their weaker defencemen and that might be the best role for him while the Oilers are still figuring out what works on their blue line.

Darnell Nurse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	7	30	37	0.47

While Bouchard has his critics, there is no bigger lightning rod in Edmonton than Darnell Nurse. The Oilers paid him like a top pair defenceman after a career season and he hasn’t come close to matching that point pace since. His mistakes get scrutinized because they’re easy to point out to the naked eye. He’s an aggressive, attack-minded defenceman, so he gets caught out of position often and is the first one pointed out on the highlights by fans. He’s a powerful skater but a wildly inaccurate passer when breaking the puck out, which makes him an awkward fit behind the top line. The Oilers have transitioned him to more of a pure shutdown role and it suits him better. His on-ice results have been better despite the criticism. He’s good enough at making the small plays with the puck on the breakout and using his body to breakup entries to be a net positive for the Oilers on the second pair. When he has to exit the zone himself is when the bad habits start to creep in because if there’s no lane to skate out of the zone, he usually goes for a home run pass and misses. Pairing him with a strong puck mover like Walman can cover up some of these flaws and have Nurse focus more on the heavier game, but it then becomes a question if $9.5 million is too much for a player you have to work around. That’s a question for management more than the coaching staff, though.

Mattias Ekholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	7	28	35	0.46

A rough ending to the Stanley Cup Final put a sour note on what was an excellent season for Mattias Ekholm. Still making some big plays in the final, including scoring a goal, Ekholm showed some rink rust in his return from an undisclosed injury that kept him out of the first three rounds. He got beat to the inside on a few goals and struggled to adjust when the pace of the games amped up. He is an integral part of the Oilers vaunted five-man unit as the safety valve for Evan Bouchard and a guy who can calm the waters. The Oilers are one of the few teams in the league that likes to regroup for their rush offence and Ekholm is a big part of that with how calmly he handles the puck in the neutral zone and finds open passing lanes. It’s incredibly tough to create offence like this in the NHL against set forechecks, so pinpoint passing is necessary and Ekholm is one of the best in the league at doing that. This part of his game is something Edmonton won’t need to worry about as he enters his late 30’s, but his endurance to play the heavy minutes and take hits along the wall is something they’ll need to monitor now. He has been durable throughout his career, and the final was the first time he looked like he lost a step, so we will see if that was rink rust or a sign of things to come for Ekholm.

Goal

Stuart Skinner

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	29	16	5	2	.902	2.78

Of all the teams to opt for more of the same in the 2025-26 season, perhaps the most surprising goaltending tandem to stay the course is the Edmonton Oilers. It's another year of Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner ahead for Oilers fans, suggesting - whether correct or not - that the Edmonton brass believe they had the winning formula this past year and don't want to mess it up this time around. On one hand, the Skinner-Pickard tandem - which saw the ever-enthusiastic Skinner take the bulk of the regular season games and Pickard help shoulder the workload more in the playoffs - seems to embody confident, upbeat vibes in net in a way that likely helps the team shake off disappointment, jitters, and tough stretches. But on the other hand, neither Pickard nor Skinner were the league's most reliable goaltender over the course of the regular season, which puts Edmonton in a position where they have to bank on both athletes either staying the course or regressing upwards. If either takes a step back, there's very little waiting in the wings of the Oilers depth chart to provide relief. This tandem likely has to help take the trophy home this year, or we'll be seeing a much bigger overhaul next summer.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 16:00:38 +0000

_{EDMONTON, AB - MAY 01: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Evan Bouchard (2) boxes out a player in the second period of game five of the Western Conference First Round Edmonton Oilers game versus the Los Angeles Kings on May 01, 2024 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)}

From a 5-12-1 start to one win away from a Stanley Cup championship, Edmonton’s 2023-24 campaign was certainly remarkable. Powered by the elite duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, a surprising 54-goal campaign from Zach Hyman, a breakout showing from defenceman Evan Bouchard, and some capable goaltending out of Stuart Skinner despite his slow start, the Oilers endured, bouncing back after each misstep. Even in the end, Edmonton showed its resilience by fighting back from a 3-0 series deficit in the Stanley Cup Finals, though the Oilers narrowly lost in Game 7 to the Panthers.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Edmonton bought out the final three seasons of Jack Campbell’s five-year, $25 million contract. Although it gives the Oilers dead cap space through 2029-30, it saved the team a much needed $3.9 million for the upcoming campaign. Edmonton also traded bottom-six forward Ryan McLeod to Buffalo, saving a further $2.1 million. With those savings the Oilers signed unrestricted free agents Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner while retaining trade deadline acquisition Adam Henrique to bolster their middle six. Calvin Pickard was inked to a two-year deal to be Skinner’s understudy.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Edmonton is in Cup-or-bust mode. Even assuming Draisaitl (UFA in 2025), McDavid (UFA in 2026) and Bouchard (RFA in 2025) can all be locked up, each of those three will be due for raises that will strain Edmonton’s already tricky cap situation, so 2024-25 might be the best chance the Oilers get at a championship. Fortunately, they’re ready for it. Skinner and Arvidsson will bolster Edmonton’s wings while Henrique should be an ideal third-line center in his first full season with the club. This is as deep an offence as Edmonton has enjoyed in the McDavid/Draisaitl era.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? But what of the goaltending? Credit where it’s due, Skinner proved that he was capable of thriving under pressure during the 2024 playoffs and his ability to rebound from a disastrous start to 2023-24 is commendable. Still, his extreme highs and lows last season make him somewhat risky. There are also some potential health concerns, most notably with Evander Kane, who is questionable going into 2024-25 due to a hip injury. Certainly, there’s a lot to like about this roster, but the bar is set high and so much has to go right for Edmonton’s championship dreams to become a reality.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Edmonton is going all-in on the 2024-25 campaign and consequently feature an almost exclusively veteran roster. Philip Broberg would have been a notable exception to that, but he was taken by St. Louis via an offer sheet. However, the Blues’ move coincided with Edmonton trading with San Jose for 24-year-old defenseman Ty Emberson, who might get solid minutes with the Oilers now that Broberg as well as Cody Ceci are gone. Although Emberson isn’t a high-end prospect, he did alright with the rebuilding Sharks across 30 games last year, and it helps that he’s a right-hand shot. Under ideal circumstances, he could get 20-30 points this season. Keep in mind, though, that Edmonton will likely be in the market for defensemen in the lead-up to the trade deadline, which might result in Emberson dropping in the depth charts.

Forwards

Connor McDavid

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	42	95	137	1.73

Last year was the closest McDavid has gotten to lifting Lord Stanley, and it hopefully won’t be his last chance. It’s easy to forget that he is only 27 years old, even though this will be his 10th year in the NHL, so there is plenty of time for him to reach the mountain top. It feels silly to say that about a player who has accomplished so much already, multiple MVP trophies and a rare Conn Smythe in a losing effort. He has produced during some down seasons for the Oilers and the difference now is he can drag the rest of the team into the fight. It didn’t feel that way last November with the team in last place, but a coaching change, and McDavid going on a torrid pace of 65 points in his last 33 games to close the year, skyrocketed the Oilers out of the basement and into the post-season. Just missing back-to-back Hart Trophies, this was one of McDavid’s stranger seasons from a statistical standpoint. His goal total was the lowest it’s been in a full-82 game season and it was also one of his worst from a shooting percentage standpoint (12.2 vs a career 15.2 percent). His shot rate dropped from 4.3 in 2022-23 to 3.5 last year. He made up for it by recording a career high 100 assists, setting up linemate Zach Hyman for most of his points, including 54 goals, while seeing his left wing be a bit of a revolving door throughout the year. He also played through most of the first half of the season with an upper-body injury, so he managed to do this while not playing at 100%. Greatness always finds a way and the Oilers are finally starting to see some tangible results in addition to their star player setting individual records.

Leon Draisaitl

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	50	64	114	1.43

Leon Draisaitl has to answer a lot of questions for a player with five 100+ point seasons in his last six. It always seems like he has so much to prove even though he’s also considered among the league’s elite. Although the shine has started to wear off, as he might be the first player in history to not receive any Hart votes with his gaudy stat line. He’s also a complicated player when breaking down the details. His skillset is incredibly unique, he’s a choppy skater with a massive upper body and is usually in some awkward, hunched over position with his back turned to the play. Yet, he makes magic happen on a regular basis. He is maybe the best player in the league at threading the puck through traffic and making blind passes from the wall. He also might be the only player in the league who scores a good chunk of his goals from the coffin corner of the rink from zero angle. He has mastered so many complicated skills that the basics can get away with him at times, and it’s why he usually finds himself back on McDavid’s wing instead of centering his own line. Draisaitl also regularly scores at least 40% of his goals on the power play and his five-on-five production is a sore topic whenever it’s brought up. Edmonton is happy to have him regardless but has a tough decision with this being the final year of his contract and due for a major raise.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	52	72	0.88

The former first overall pick has been through it all with the Oilers and last year he might have had the lowest expectations for someone coming off a 104-point season. If only because everyone knew it was heavily buoyed by a historically efficient Oilers power play and the 55-65-point territory is where his average usually lies. Points are usually a secondary feature with him anyway, especially with him under such a team-friendly contract for the next few years. RNH’s time has been split between being McDavid’s left winger and centering the Oilers third line in more of a checking role. He logs a lot of minutes for a forward and plays more of an off-puck role. You aren’t going to get a lot of puck touches with McDavid on your line and Hyman as the primary shooter, so his willingness to check and strength in the defensive zone makes him a great complement to the Oilers star. The power play is where he really shines, acting as the quarterback from the left circle and shifting to the netfront where he’s sneaky at getting deflections. The potential to have a major point-producing season is always there for that reason, but his five-on-five production will always be somewhat limited. Draft for no more than 15 goals and 60 – 65 points and any upside will be a bonus.

Jeff Skinner

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	22	25	47	0.59

Always looking for pure shooters, Edmonton added one of the best on the open market in Jeff Skinner. He’s on the wrong side of 30, but he’s somewhat rejuvenated his career in Buffalo, scoring 92 goals over the past three seasons after only tallying 21 over 112 games in the first two years of his deal. He fits like a glove whether he is playing with McDavid or Draisaitl because all he has to do is get himself open and they will probably find him. Skinner’s never been the type who needs an elite setup man to produce, but it’s never hurt him and it’s something he’s rarely had in his career, always playing on lower, sheltered lines to cover his defensive weaknesses. The one perplexing thing about him is that he’s never had great results on the power play, only scoring more than 10 goals with the man advantage in one season, which was all the way back in 2013 with the Hurricanes. This has the potential to be a great investment for the Oilers with how much of an issue wing depth has been for them in the McDavid era. Skinner gives them the most potential from a boom-or-bust standpoint. Much will depend on his deployment on the top two lines. He might yet be sheltered on the third line with Adam Henrique to add depth scoring. He will not be featured on the first power play unless there is an injury, so proceed with some caution. Last years result of 20 – 25 goals and a similar number of assists is as likely a scenario as an offensive burst.

Viktor Arvidsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	21	34	55	0.76

While Skinner is the guy who gives you all offence, all the time, Arvidsson is someone who can score and calm the waters at even strength. At least when he is healthy, which was the problem last year. Missing over 50 games with a back injury, there’s some risk in adding the undersized winger because that is the type of injury that lingers and shortens careers. When healthy, he solves a lot of problems for the Oilers. He can work higher in the lineup as a quick, water bug type of player who will pitch in some goals here and there or he can be excellent on a shutdown line. He’s not the most effective defensive player, but he’s very annoying to play against and could be a great complement to Nugent-Hopkins if they want to use that line in a shutdown role. Arvidsson also emerged as a power play threat in LA, but he has a lot of names to outplay to crack the Oilers top unit. Still, he can fill a couple different holes for the Oilers if his back is healthy and there’s no long-term effects. Also like Skinner, his deployment on the top two lines will be key to any offensive breakthrough. If you target him for 25 goals and 55 – 60 points that should be a safe bet, health allowing.

Zach Hyman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	46	30	76	0.94

Hyman is easily one of the best unrestricted free agent signings of the modern era. Since joining the Oilers, he has scored at a 40-goal pace over three seasons, which is unprecedented territory for a winger in his early 30’s, especially one that plays the tough, net front game that he does. He is the master at “catching” pucks right by the side of the crease, making his whole body a target at the post so he can easily corral the puck and tap it in before the defenders can react. The ice time bump has served him well in Edmonton, spending most of his minutes attached at the hip to McDavid but that alone doesn’t explain his jump to becoming a 50+ goal-scorer last year. It’s actually a case of someone making their game one-dimensional and predictable in a good way. Hyman’s a good passer, but he embraced being the shooter for McDavid, seeing his shot rate go up to over 10 attempts per 60 minutes since moving to his line. He saw his shooting percentage jump to 18.6 percent from a career average of 13.7. He doesn’t look to pass that much anymore, and he knows where his bread is buttered, especially on the power play where he scored 15 goals in each of the last two seasons. His presence on the forecheck and complementary skillset to McDavid make him an invaluable part of the Oilers lineup.

Evander Kane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	14	10	24	0.46

The Oilers gamble with Evander Kane and his subsequent contract has yielded mixed results. In some ways they’ve gotten what they’ve asked for. He’s given them at least a 20-goal pace in each of the three seasons he’s been there and that’s without power play time. His “get anything and everything at the net” approach is welcomed at times and frustrating at others, as he will take a lot of low percentage opportunities for every decent chance he creates and is not really pay attention to where his linemates are. It’s made him an inconsistent player when it comes to keeping play in the offensive zone and his play in the neutral and defensive zone can be an adventure at times. He also hasn’t been available or healthy the past two seasons, missing a lot of 2022-23 with a broken hand and playing most of last season with a sports hernia. He struggled to find a home on any line despite producing at a decent rate and was even scratched in the Stanley Cup Final because the injury limited him so much. With the Oilers investing in some new wingers, Kane might have to fight for his ice time more next season, particularly for power play time. His physical play and the fact that he ends up with 20 goals regardless of what’s going on around him might be what gives him an edge if push comes to shove, but not a given by any means. Proceed with caution.

Adam Henrique

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	17	27	44	0.55

A true Swiss Army Knife, Henrique’s versatility and decent scoring upside was much needed in the Oilers lineup down the stretch. He’s a guy who can calm the waters at even strength and he is low-key one of the better finishers in the league. Edmonton saw that firsthand last year when he shot over 20% during their run to the Finals. The downside is that Henrique himself doesn’t produce much offence himself, so his game is about making the most of the limited chances he gets. He’s always been more about letting the speedy puck-carriers do their thing while he looks for the open space. With Arvidsson and Skinner in the fold now, there’s a potential for Edmonton to run a nice third line around him. Henrique’s posted solid defensive numbers on some bottom-feeding Anaheim teams, so he should be able to slot into a lower line role with the Oilers without much issue. He is 34 years old, so we will see how long he can sustain this pace. A return to similar point totals to what he achieved in Anaheim is unlikely given his role here.

Corey Perry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	11	12	23	0.33

Four out of the last five Stanley Cup Finals have featured a team with Corey Perry, unfortunately for him they were all on the losing side. It feels weird to say that a former Cup and Hart Trophy winner could ever be on a run of bad luck, but it is reaching unprecedented territory for the long-time Anaheim Duck. He has defied Father Time to a point, posting decent numbers in Tampa Bay in his late 30’s and having his moments in the playoffs with both Montreal and Dallas. You can tell the speed of the game has gone by him in some aspects, as he’s easily the most noticeable player on the ice for the wrong reasons when the pace picks up. His strengths, however, are timeless. He was one of the NHL’s premier pests in his prime years and still has no problem being a nuisance in front of the goaltender. He also has decent hands around the net, which adds a wrinkle to his game. Playing in more of specialist role now, Perry can’t keep up with top line minutes anymore and is only used on the top power play unit as a spark. It’s uncertain if he still has the legs to keep up with a full-time checking role at the age of 39. Although the Oilers certainly have faith in him, giving him a second chance after the Blackhawks terminated his contract due to unprofessional conduct and adding another year onto his contract.

DEFENCE

Darnell Nurse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	8	24	32	0.40

Having a career season during the summer when every team was locking up their top defencemen for big money has been more of a burden for Darnell Nurse than anything. For years, he was expected to carry the workload of an elite, number one defenceman and while he has the cardio to do it, his erratic defensive play and decision making turned most Oilers games into a track meet. Last year was the first time some of that was lifted. With Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm emerging as the top pair, Nurse could move down to the second pair in a shutdown role where he is more properly slotted. Still, the expectations of that contract are tough to swallow, and Nurse had his struggles during the playoffs where he was on the ice for a goal-against every single game. The reality is he is somewhere in the middle ground between the high-end offensive defenceman we saw in 2021, and the defensive liability fans make him out to be because of his tendency to get caught on the wrong side of the highlight reel. He is no longer expected to produce offence as was once hoped but should still be good for 10 goals and 30 points with loads of peripheral fantasy stats.

Evan Bouchard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	17	62	79	0.96

Bouchard was the most obvious breakout pick last year, solely for the fact that he has an atom bomb of a shot and was getting placed on the Oilers historically great power play. Blocked by Tyson Barrie his first two years, Bouchard was unleashed last year and also earned his way onto the Oilers lethal five-man unit at even strength. His shot, passing and brilliant offensive instincts made him a natural fit there and it made the Oilers offence impossible to stop once they got rolling. A shooter who can score from distance is hard to come by in today’s NHL. Bouchard brings the lethal combo of velocity, accuracy and deception at time when he’s shooting for the deflection or winding up the big slapshot. His puck-moving is also a plus skill, although sometimes he tries to make too much happen and turnovers remain an issue with him. It’s something you can live with because the positives he brings outweigh them and are impossible to replace. His defensive game is also a work in progress, particularly with finding the right route on outlets and who to cover, but that’s why Ekholm is paired with him. Look for him to have another big season.

Mattias Ekholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	10	30	40	0.50

The bedrock of the Edmonton defence, Ekholm fits the model of the modern shutdown defenceman. He skates well, takes away space without chasing hits, has one of the best defensive sticks in the league and can skate his way out of problems, which makes life easier for everyone else. The changing of the guard from Nurse and Ceci to him and Bouchard changed the entire makeup of the Oilers, allowing their top five-man unit to be more creative in the offensive zone with two blue liners who can move and cover their own tracks if things go off-script. Ekholm’s always had the skills to be a solid offensive contributor, even if that’s not his strength, and we saw that last year as he set a career high in points with 45. Part of that comes with the territory when you’re on the ice with elite talent. But taking advantage of the open space and reading the play is part of what makes you someone who helps keep the engine going instead of just being a passenger. Ekholm definitely fits into the former category, both as a shutdown defenceman and a contributor on offence. The only concern is how long he can keep it up as he enters his mid-30’s.

Brett Kulak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	19	23	0.28

The number four spot on the Oilers defence was a bit of an open competition. The long holdover, Cody Ceci, had a tough end to his playoffs and was dealt prior to the season. The Oilers chose not to match the offer sheet for Philip Broberg, who would have been pressing for promotion, but is now out of the picture. They lost Vincent Desharnais to free agency. A stable option to fill that spot is veteran Brett Kulak, who gives them most steady presence among the potential candidates. He skates well and his specialty of killing plays at the blue line would be a great complement to Nurse. Not a burner, but reliable enough with the puck to contribute, he has a lot of skills that translate well when you move up in the lineup, as he’s never been one to rely on his partner or have his skills inflated by playing against weaker competition. The only question is if he can handle the increase in minutes workload, as he’s been in the league a long time and has been locked into a third pair role with heavy penalty killing duty for most of it.

GOAL

Stuart Skinner

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
62	39	17	6	3	0.909	2.58

It's now or never for the Edmonton Oilers, and Stuart Skinner has to be feeling the pressure. You'd never know it from looking at his performances in his first two full NHL seasons, though; where some goaltenders might flounder in the face of mounting pressure, Skinner seems to take on each additional added responsibility the Oilers put at his feet with increasing enthusiasm. He improved his stat lines last season in almost every measurable area despite a higher workload, and it paid off when he took Edmonton so deep into the postseason, they could almost feel the Stanley Cup in their grasp.

Of course, that means that Skinner - and tandem partner Calvin Pickard, who will return for another year of Alberta hockey - have yet more pressure they'll face this year. Just one game shy of winning it all, Edmonton fans are ravenous to taste victory for the first time in 35 years. And although the Oilers have been recipients of stellar singular seasons from goaltenders in recent years, they have yet to find a starter with any kind of staying power; from Ben Scrivens to Jack Campbell and a couple dozen in-between, every goaltender the Oilers seem to put their faith in has faltered a few years into their tenure. Skinner will have to prove he isn't destined for Edmonton's growing goalie graveyard - and now that he's put up a 100-plus game sample size for teams to pore over, that will become more difficult. He'll need to clean up his game in the low slot and his ability to box out opponents looking for dirty scoring areas to keep his numbers up where they currently sit - and Edmonton will need to get another good year of backup performances from Pickard to avoid overworking him in the process.

THE WEEK AHEAD: November 13th to 19th – Bruins goaltending driving early success – Oilers reset with coaching change

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 13 Nov 2023 14:39:11 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (11) waits for a face-off during the Columbus Blue Jackets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

The opening story of these articles might be a bit of a curse. I talked about how bad the Sharks were, and they subsequently got outscored 20-3. I followed that by discussing the sorry state of the Oilers in the last edition of this column, and their situation proceeded to get worse with a loss to the lowly Sharks, prompting the firing of coach Jay Woodcroft.

So, who will I burden with featuring this week? Rather than focus on the negative, why not shift our gaze to one of the best teams in the league? After over a month of play, I think it’s fair to say that reports of Boston’s demise over the summer have been greatly exaggerated.

It was logical to expect the Bruins to decline after losing significant pieces over the summer, most notably Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci due to retirement, but Boston’s 11-1-2 start is only a slight deviation from its 12-2-0 opening in 2022-23. How have they managed that? It really just comes down to the one thing that hasn’t changed: The goaltending.

Through 14 games in 2022-23, Boston had surrendered just 32 goals versus 28 over the same span this year. In the previous campaign that was entirely due to Linus Ullmark -- Jeremy Swayman struggled in the early portion of that season -- whereas this year it’s been a joint effort between Ullmark and Swayman, but the result is the same: Amazing goaltending wins games.

That has shielded Boston’s record from the reality that this genuinely is a worse iteration of the Bruins. Through 14 contests last year, Boston led the league offensively with 4.00 goals per game. By contrast, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack this season at 3.21.

David Pastrnak has enjoyed a near identical start to his 2023-24 campaign (21 points versus 22 points last year) and having Brad Marchand healthy from the start of the season (he missed the opening eight contests of 2022-23) helps. However, that’s not enough to make up for the loss of Bergeron (12 points in 14 contests), Taylor Hall (nine points) and David Krejci (nine points). There’s been a trickle-down impact in the Bruins’ scoring depth too: Boston had 12 multi-goal players at this point last year compared to eight today.

But what we’ve seen is all that extra offense was a waste. When you have goaltending this good, what does it matter? In 2022-23, Boston scored four or more goals in four of their first six contests. The Bruins did that just once in the same span this campaign. But so what? Boston not only won its first six contests this year but did so by two or more goals in all but one occasion.

The takeaway here is that those who predicted Boston’s decline were underestimating just how much their success is truly linked to their goaltending and how much the Bruins could afford to regress before it would actually start to impact their record.

Then again, there’s still a lot of the campaign left. The 2022-23 Bruins didn’t just get off to a strong start, they maintained it all year, finishing 65-12-5. This year’s weaker offense also makes Boston more vulnerable to injuries. When Brad Marchand was hurt at the start of 2022-23, Boston had enough talent to shrug it off. Could these Bruins do the same? What if a couple of middle-six forwards get hurt? Boston isn’t exactly swimming in depth anymore to fill the void.

Time will tell, but while Boston is better than some gave it credit for, it might also prove to be a bit of a glass canon.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets got off to a 3-2-0 start, but they’ve posted a 1-5-4 record since, including five consecutive losses. They’ll try to right the ship this week with home games against Pittsburgh and Arizona on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, followed by road contests versus Washington on Saturday and Philadelphia on Sunday.

Despite the Blue Jackets’ continued struggles, there have been some individual standout performers. Defenseman Erik Gudbranson has contributed five assists over his last four contests. He’s not a bad short-term pickup to ride while he’s hot, especially because he also has 13 PIM and 39 hits in 15 games this year, so the blueliner offers a bit of versatility.

Rookie Adam Fantilli is also looking good. He’s on a three-game scoring streak, giving him four goals and nine points through 15 contests. That puts him in a tie for fourth in the rookie scoring race. Fantilli has a top-six role and is on the first power-play unit. He’s likely to finish the campaign with 45-55 points.

Edmonton Oilers

New Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has a pretty favorable stretch to start his NHL career. The Oilers will host the Islanders on Monday and the Kraken on Wednesday -- both of which are off to mild starts -- before facing Tampa Bay, which is just 6-5-4 due in no small part to the continued absence of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (back). Edmonton has a lot of ground to cover to claw back into the playoff race, but taking four of six points this week is entirely doable.

How much of the Oilers’ problems can be fixed with coaching change is up for debate, but teams do typically get at least a short-term boost following a bench boss firing, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Edmonton does well this week.

A new coach also has the potential to be a reset point for struggling players. I’m not expecting Connor McDavid, who has been subpar by his high standards with two goals and 10 points in 11 contests, to see an immediate spike in production. Knoblauch was McDavid’s coach with the OHL’s Erie Otters, so I’m sure McDavid will play well under him, but the superstar might be playing through an injury right now, which makes a coaching change matter less as far as he’s concerned -- at least in the short-term.

Do you know who else Knoblauch coached with Erie, though? Connor Brown. Before the season, it was hoped that Brown, reunited with McDavid, might have the best season of his career, but so far Brown has failed to record even a single point. The 29-year-old is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, but when he returns, perhaps working under Knoblauch will do him some good.

I’m also interested to see if Darnell Nurse can rekindle his offensive game after recording just four points through 13 contests this season, down from 43 in 2023-24. Rather than Knoblauch directly, it might be the presence of new assistant coach Paul Coffey who aids Nurse.

New York Islanders

The Islanders are on the road this week with games in Edmonton on Monday, Vancouver on Wednesday, Seattle on Thursday and Calgary on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but it is a packed one, so there is an opportunity here for players to have above-average weeks.

Backup Semyon Varlamov will be one to watch. The Islanders are likely going to use him in one, maybe two starts. With three of the four teams being middling-to-poor offensively this campaign (Edmonton, Calgary and Seattle), this seems like a favorable stretch to lean on the Islanders’ goaltending.

On the offensive side of things, the Islanders aren’t a strong group and not many players have performed well recently.

Simon Holmstrom is an exception, providing three goals over his last five contests. He’s an interesting player. Selected with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, he has offensive upside, but the Islanders used him sparingly last year (an average of 11:06 per game), which resulted in him providing just six goals and nine points in 50 contests. Even with his recent run, he’s been limited to four points through 12 outings this year, but the Islanders seem to be experimenting with him in a bigger role, bringing him up to an average of 14:58 over his last four contests. Keep an eye on his usage and performance over the next few games.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins’ rough start is well behind them after winning each of their last four games. They’ll look to keep that going this week with games in Columbus on Tuesday, versus New Jersey on Thursday, in Carolina on Saturday and finally against the Golden Knights on Sunday.

Erik Karlsson has been a huge part of the Penguins’ recent success. He got off to a slow start with a goal and four points over his first eight contests this year, but he’s bounced back with a five-game scoring streak, providing three goals and nine points in that stretch. Maybe he needed a bit of time to settle in with the Penguins, but he should finish the campaign with over 70 points so long as he stays healthy.

Pittsburgh has other stars excelling too, but one lower-profile player who is quietly having a productive campaign is Lars Eller. He’s up to two goals and seven points in 13 contests and is also entering the week on a three-game point streak. With how packed this week is, you might want to consider grabbing him temporarily. However, he’s primarily a third-liner, and it’s rare to see him on the power play, so don’t keep him long-term.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle hasn’t been able to replicate its 2022-23 success, going just 5-7-3 thus far. The Kraken are averaging an okay 3.27 goals per game dating back to Oct. 19 though, so while their overall of 2.60 is poor, that’s not reflective of their recent play.

Jaden Schwartz has been a big part of their improvement. After a quiet start to the campaign (two points through five contests), he’s recorded at least a point in each of his last nine outings, providing six goals and 12 points over that stretch. At this point, he’s a solid sell-high candidate in fantasy leagues. Schwartz is a solid forward but won’t be able to maintain this level of production. If he finishes the season in the 50-60 point range, that would be seen as a win. Keep in mind that he also has a somewhat lengthy injury history, which adds another element of risk to the equation.

Eeli Tolvanen is also on a roll, contributing two goals and five points over his last four contests. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that hot streak extended, especially against Colorado and Edmonton, which are two teams plagued by struggling goaltending (Edmonton’s is obvious, but Alexandar Georgiev has a 4.73 GAA and an .842 save percentage over his last seven contests).

At the other end of the spectrum, Kailer Yamamoto hasn’t done much yet, supplying just two goals and four points in 15 contests. There was a time when the 25-year-old seemed set to become a great top-six forward, but outside of his 41-point showing in 2021-22, that hasn’t panned out yet. Seattle is still giving him every opportunity, often deploying him on the top power-play unit, so there is still hope there.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will host Tampa Bay on Tuesday before going on a road trip with stops in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Lightning and Sharks are two of the bottom-five teams in terms of goals allowed per game this year, so this seems like a good time to grab a Blues forward.

Robert Thomas couldn’t be hotter going into the week. He’s contributed five goals and 10 points over his last six contests, including four assists versus Colorado on Saturday. Brayden Schenn came up huge against the Avalanche too, supplying a hat trick and an assist to elevate him to nine points in 13 outings this year.

Neither is likely to be available in most fantasy leagues, but Oskar Sundqvist probably is. While the bottom-six forward isn’t a good long-term option, he has chipped in a goal and three points over the last two contests, so he’s warm going into a favorable stretch.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning will play just three games this week, but the competition isn’t bad for them. As noted above, they’ll be in St. Louis on Tuesday, followed by a contest in Chicago on Thursday before hosting Edmonton on Saturday. The Blackhawks unsurprising have a poor 5-8-0 record and while Edmonton’s coaching change adds an extra X-Factor to the meeting, the Oilers are near the bottom of the pack too.

Tampa Bay will continue to be without Vasilevskiy -- though he’s currently on track to return around American Thanksgiving -- and they’re also missing Conor Sheary (upper body). Erik Cernak’s (undisclosed) status isn’t known at the time of writing, but he did exit Saturday’s game. Nikita Kucherov didn’t play Saturday, but unless his illness is significant, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play Tuesday or Thursday at the latest.

If Cernak ends up missing additional time due to his injury, then we might see Philippe Myers draw into the lineup. He wouldn’t be an offensive threat, but if you’re fishing for PIM and hits, then Myers would be worthy of consideration should he play.

If you’re looking for scoring outside of the usual candidates, Alex Barre-Boulet might still be worthy of consideration. He has just a goal and an assist over his last six contests, but Barre-Boulet has shown he can be productive with limited minutes and the defensive quality of Chicago (3.46 goals allowed per game) and Edmonton (3.92) improves the chances of him factoring in later in the week.

Vegas Golden Knights

Along with Boston, Vegas has dominated the league with its 12-2-1 start. The Golden Knights haven’t played since Friday, so they’ll be well rested for their road trip, which will take them to Washington on Tuesday, Montreal on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Like Boston, Vegas’ success starts with its goaltending. Adin Hill leads the team with a 7-1-1 record, 1.75 GAA and .939 save percentage in nine contests while Logan Thompson has been a fantastic alternative, providing a 5-1-0 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in six games. With a full road schedule this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them each get two starts.

The Golden Knights outshine Boston offensively though, averaging 3.67 goals per game. William Karlsson has been leading the charge with eight goals and 18 points in 15 contests this year, including five markers and seven points over his last five outings. His shooting percentage has climbed to 32.0, which is a huge red flag. To put that in perspective, he had a 23.4 shooting percentage in 2016-17 when he set career highs with 43 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances. After that campaign, many pointed to his shooting percentage as being unsustainable and used that as part of their argument that he would decline -- which he did in 2018-19 to 24 goals and 56 points. Karlsson is extremely unlikely to continue to cash in on nearly a third of his shots, so the goals will probably dry up in the not-too-distant future, which makes him a potential sell-high candidate.

When it comes to someone to pick up, Michael Amadio, who had two assists Friday, is a decent candidate. His value is linked to the availability of Nicolas Roy (undisclosed) and Chandler Stephenson (upper body), though. With those two out, Amadio is seeing some use in a top-six capacity, but that will change once one or both of Vegas’ injured centers return.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 21:43:51 +0000

COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 25: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid #97 prior to the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Somehow, even after winning back-to-back Art Ross Trophies, Connor McDavid found yet another level to his game. He scored 64 goals and 153 points in 82 contests last season, giving us one of the greatest individual performances we’ve ever seen. As if that wasn’t enough, Leon Draisaitl had an amazing season in his own right, contributing 52 goals and 128 points while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman had career years with 104 and 83 points, respectively. Unsurprisingly, Edmonton led the league offensively with 3.96 goals per game, but all was not well. Jack Campbell was nothing short of a disaster, posting a 3.41 GAA and an .888 save percentage in 36 contests. At least rookie Stuart Skinner emerged with a 29-14-5 record, 2.75 GAA and .913 save percentage in 50 games, but relying on a young goaltender has its drawbacks. With the stakes risen in the playoffs, Skinner struggled, and Edmonton was ultimately eliminated in the second round to the Golden Knights. Skinner was yanked three times in that six-game series, undermining the efforts of McDavid and Draisaitl, who combined for 11 goals and 17 points versus Vegas.

What’s Changed? Very little. Connor Brown signed a one-year, $4 million deal with Edmonton and he’ll have a chance to earn a top-six spot. Mattias Janmark agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract and will likely be penciled in for the third line. Other than that, it will be essentially the same team as last year.

What would success look like? Anything short of winning the Stanley Cup would be disappointing. That might be unfair, but it’s what’s to be expected for a team that has McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime. That duo basically guarantees that the offense will be fine. A healthier season out of Evander Kane – he played just 41 games last year – would give them another strong scoring option. Brown is also an interesting pickup. He missed almost the entire 2022-23 campaign with a torn ACL, but at his best he’s a solid secondary scorer who could gel well with Edmonton’s elite forwards. Of course, the single-biggest boost would be a bounce back season from Campbell.

What could go wrong? Not that Campbell is a safe bet to rebound, and Skinner isn’t a sure thing either, given that he has just one full NHL season under his belt. There’s also a chance Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins will significantly regress after performing far above their norm last year, which would threaten to turn Edmonton’s attack into little more than the McDavid-Draisaitl show. The elite duo can make the Oilers competitive on their own, but they can’t win the Cup without ample support.

Top Breakout Candidate: Dylan Holloway had just three goals and nine points in 51 contests last season, but he averaged a mere 9:35 of ice time. Holloway has the potential to play a far bigger role and thrive in it. The 21-year-old is entering his sophomore campaign, so he might still need more seasoning and breaking into the top-six will be difficult. Still, he has a chance to be a valuable secondary scorer this year.

Forwards

Connor McDavid - C

A strange-but-true fact about McDavid’s historic season is that he didn’t lead the league in five-on-five points. Despite lapping the field in overall point production, becoming the first player to reach 150 since Bernie Nichols in 1989, he was only fourth in even strength points. He more than made up for this on special teams, as Edmonton’s top unit was the closest thing to an automatic goal in modern NHL history. McDavid obviously being the straw which stirred the drink and recording 71 points there alone. The explanation behind his 5-on-5 production was the Oilers shooting below 10% when he was on the ice, which included him scoring on a strong 16% of his shots. McDavid was still dominant, so much so that he won the Hart almost unanimously, so his 5-on-5 results demonstrate that there still was still another level he could have reached. It goes back to Edmonton’s recurring problem of surrounding their star player with good linemates. They still received a good season out of Zach Hyman, but they eventually had to revert to placing Draisaitl back on his wing after other options didn’t work. It’s an ancillary issue in the regular season but came back to haunt them in the playoffs where McDavid’s linemates scored only five goals on 46 of his setups. Still dominating on the power play, the Oilers star could get his points. Repeating their performance at 5-on-5 is what kept them out of the third round.

Leon Draisaitl - C

When Draisaitl retires, he could own a place in NHL history of the most seasons scoring 100+ points while not leading his own team. Built almost like a Hockey Voltron, Draisaitl has an unorthodox combo of being an elite shooter and an incredible passer while having a massive upper body that makes taking the puck away from him borderline impossible in the offensive zone. He is the master of the coffin-corner one-timer and still catches goaltenders off-guard with them. Also, one of the best at scoring off his backhand and elevating the puck from close-range. Still arguably a better passer than a shooter from a sheer degree of difficulty standpoint. He can move pucks from the wall to the slot effortlessly and his vision is almost unmatched. That said, there is still a question of “what do we do with him” in the Oilers lineup, as he was once again moved back between centering his own line and playing alongside McDavid. Draisaitl’s play-driving improved dramatically last year, finding ways to clean up his play in the defensive zone and make up for his lack of footspeed. Moving back to McDavid was more due to the Oilers needing more scoring from their top line in the playoffs than Draisaitl’s struggles. Enters this season in the same boat as his co-star where you know you’re getting outstanding results in the regular season and the playoffs are the next hurdle.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - LW

The number of NHLers who take 12 seasons to hit 100 points is probably low. In modern times, it happens about as often as a solar eclipse, so Nugent-Hopkins surprised a lot of people when he hit this milestone. Bringing new meaning to the term “power play specialist,” his point total with the man advantage (53) topped his entire total from last season (50). While not the catalyst, he played his part is making the Oilers power play a machine, patrolling the middle and always staying in motion so that their top guys always had a passing option open from a dangerous area. It’s not something you expect to continue at this level, but RNH has been a great power play guy in Edmonton for years now. He is the type of forward who you can use in a lot of ways, going from McDavid’s winger to a third line center, RNH usually gives you a solid level of play. This season was also one of his stronger years in terms of 5-on-5 scoring as well, where he didn’t always have star teammates to lean on. His versatility is a great tool to have, although it makes predicting next season a riddle. He’s not going to repeat the ridiculous powerplay numbers but getting back to the 65–70-point level he was at his peak shouldn’t be out of the question.

Zach Hyman - LW

Everyone on that Oilers top power play unit seemed to master the details of the game that made it great. For Zach Hyman, it was becoming a master at working the net front role. Using his body to catch loose pucks and quickly put them in the net, being a moving target instead of a stationary screen and popping out into the slot if the play was behind the net. The results speak for themselves, scoring 15 power play goals after having 11 total for his entire career before the season. He has been the perfect complement to McDavid, and it goes beyond his penchant for creating high danger chances. Hyman excels as the winger who can follow up plays to setup entries, creating a small bridge in the neutral zone to help McDavid and others gain speed and get closer to the net off the rush. It makes the relationship between him and the Oilers star more of a two-way street instead of McDavid doing all the work while Hyman goes to the net. Edmonton has gotten their money’s worth there and this is before factoring in the work he does on the penalty kill. Finding the third guy is the next challenge, as Hyman’s great in his role but doesn’t score or take many shots from distance, which is the one piece missing on the Oilers top line.

Evander Kane - RW

His second season in Edmonton was disrupted by a freak accident where he suffered a skate laceration on his wrist. Was a productive player with 13 points in 14 games before the injury and scored only 15 points the rest of the year. His game didn’t change much despite the injury, still the shoot-first, pass-second player he has been for his entire career. Kane was also less reliant on McDavid to score goals, tallying eight alongside Draisaitl whereas he only scored one goal away from McDavid at five-on-five last season. The more finesse part of his game was missing after the wrist injury, still shooting the puck often but missing the target and flubbing chances he usually gets. Also, less involved in helping move the puck up ice compared to previous years, not handling the puck much in the neutral zone and more of a secondary off-puck option on zone entries. Scored all but two of his goals at 5-on-5, as he didn’t see much power play time except for spot duty on the second unit. Brought in as support for McDavid, Kane’s spot in the Oilers lineup is known as of right now, but the revolving door nature of the Oilers wingers could lead him back there before the season is over.

Connor Brown - RW

Getting hurt in a contract year is always a bummer, especially for a player in the middle of the pack like Connor Brown. He has a chance to make up for some of that this year, signing a one-year incentive-laced contract with the Oilers. There is always an opportunity that you get slotted on their top line with their wing depth and McDavid might even vouch for his old OHL teammate. Brown brings a lot of qualities that make him a good fit with McDavid, but he’s going to have a good season regardless of where he slots. A hard-working winger who loves having the puck on his stick, Brown had a few good years in Ottawa playing high in the lineup. He was a fixture on their penalty kill and was one of the more aggressive players in the league at poaching for short-handed chances. Always hunting pucks down and has decent playmaking skills if in the right environment. Not a great finisher, but not far removed from a 21-goal season where he showed flashes of it. Edmonton could be looking to recapture some of that magic but at minimum they have a good third liner who will hold the fort down while their stars are on the bench.

Mattias Janmark - LW

If you’ve watched random highlights of Janmark, you might be tricked into thinking he has star potential. With speed to burn and decent puck-handling skills, many teams have given the Swede a call over his career. Even if he has one of the lowest conversion rates on breakaways, Janmark has forged a nice career as a solid defensive player and penalty killer. He’s good at using his speed to help clear pucks to relieve pressure and disrupt cycles. He’s also remarkably consistent in his production, scoring exactly 20-25 points in each of the last five years with three different teams. You know what you’re getting with him and it’s probably why the Oilers opted to retain him on another one-year deal. The important thing about playing in the Oilers bottom-six is to be at least a neutral player and Janmark can hold his own there. He gets more minutes than your average bottom-sixer, playing in the 14–15-minute range because of how much he is relied on the penalty kill. Formed a very solid checking line in the latter half of the season with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod that actually controlled play in addition to not giving up much defensively.

Warren Foegele - RW

Foegele is a great example of how it sometimes takes a while for a high scorer in junior or the AHL to figure out how to be a checker. Even if they have the skillset, there is more to playing on an energy line than just getting in on the forecheck, playing at 100 mph and crashing the net. There are more details that go into it and Foegele seemed to have mastered them in his second year with the Oilers. His line with Ryan McLeod was excellent not only at preventing chances and goals, but also tilting the ice and knowing how to set the table for the McDavid line. Foegele has all the skills to be a great checker, he’s a great F1 who will get in on the forecheck and is excellent at recovering pucks. Now it’s been about using his teammates better to keep the cycle going instead of everything directly going to the net. It’s not a pretty game, but he was effective for Edmonton in his role. This could change this year depending on how the Connor Brown experiment shakes out and who else is next in line for that winger spot.

Ryan McLeod - C

A high scorer in the AHL, McLeod’s game at the NHL level is all about defense, although a new breed of it. We often associate puck-possession and things like transition, but McLeod is one of those players who has it translate to more defensive results. When he is on the ice, the Oilers usually have the puck in the defensive zone. He is very good at getting back to help the defense and moving the puck up ice on his own to flip the territorial game for Edmonton. Creates easy entries for himself through breaking up plays in the neutral zone and is deceptive with striking off the rush. He developed as a skill player in the minors, so the ability is there even if it’s not his role. Covers a lot of ground in the defensive zone getting to loose pucks without taking many strides and it helps his lines calm the waters at 5-on-5. Still only 23, he’s found a role on the Oilers and it’s an important one as they were looking for anybody to bring that calming effect at 5-on-5 while their stars are on the bench. Last year was the first time the Oilers had a positive goal differential without McDavid on the ice and McLeod’s play is a huge reason for it. Might be unknown around the league but certainly not in Edmonton.

Defense

Evan Bouchard - D

The potential Jenga piece for the Oilers going forward, this season was a big coming out party for Bouchard, specifically the playoffs. They spent most of the season trying to find a partner for him, as Bouchard was clearly top-four on a roster filled with players more suited for the 5/6 role, it took a trading for Ekholm to consistently get Bouchard in the 22-23 minutes range. They finally had a partner who could complement his high-risk game, covering more ground for him in the defensive zone so he could focus on playing the puck and starting the rush instead of trying to do everything as he did for most of the year. His offensive skills are unmatched on the Oilers blue line, it’s just the other details with being a defenseman that have been a work in progress, most notably exiting the zone against a heavy forecheck and playing too aggressive in the neutral zone. A better defense partner should help unlock his full potential. At the very least he is getting a lot of power play time next year and is poised for a monster year in terms of point production.

Darnell Nurse - D

Nurse’s play is often a lightning rod topic among Oilers fans. A good chunk of it is related to the contract he signed after a career season, which made him the fifth highest defenseman in the league at the time. The other is that watching him play will usually have you on the edge of your seat if you’re a fan. He’s an attack-minded defenseman at heart, sprinting out of the zone at the first opportunity and taking a lot of shots off the rush as the trailer. It’s a strategy that works for Edmonton sometimes, this year being a slight return to form from a production standpoint. This is also true for the defensive side of the game, as Nurse will often chase the puck or look to lay a big hit on players entering the zone. Often caught out of position or making a lot of mistakes that give opposing forwards a lot of open ice. It’s something you can coach out of players, but Nurse has to play aggressive to be effective and this just comes with the territory. He’s made up for this by not forcing as many plays out of the zone and giving way to some of their stronger puck movers when exiting the zone, but the overall package will continue to keep Edmonton’s heart rates high.

Mattias Ekholm - D

Edmonton made one of their best trades of the Ken Holland era by acquiring Mattias Ekholm at the deadline. A minute eater who can wear a lot of hats, this was exactly the type of player they have been missing for years. Ekholm doesn’t have that game-breaking skillset, but he does the little things that make life easier for Edmonton’s elite players. The most important is recovering after mistakes. Edmonton will try to push the pace more when their top guys are out and sometimes turnovers will happen. Ekholm is the type of player who won’t panic when that happens and quickly gets the puck out of the zone after. He was brought in to be paired with the offensive-minded Evan Bouchard, so it was a great fit from the start. He also has the sense of knowing when to force a play and when to clear the puck off the glass, although it’s usually the former as he’s an excellent passer with great vision. Also facilitates offense without accumulating a lot of points. A steadying presence from the point who can get pucks down low without risking turnovers. The only concerns with Ekholm are age and his durability as he gets closer to 35.

Brett Kulak - D

A problem solver of sorts for the Oilers defense, Kulak is someone who knows his role by now. He doesn’t get top minutes or get a lot of puck touches, so he is impactful when he gets the chance. Always standing up at the line to deny entries, doing an excellent job of taking away space in the defensive zone and occasionally jumping into the play (being out there with the third line means he’s usually one of their best options). Last year was a little rockier for him than usual, as the Oilers attempted to pair him with blossoming star Evan Bouchard and it wasn’t long before he was relegated back to the third pair with Tyson Barrie. Eventually he got a consistent partner in Vincent Desharnais and Kulak got back to his usual game after that. Surprisingly set a career high in points thanks to 13 secondary assists. One of the Oilers better retrievers of the puck but not the most dynamic puck mover, which has kept him lower in the lineup despite his strengths. Arguably the team’s most steady defenseman in the post-season, as he was on the ice for only four goals against.

Goaltending

Jack Campbell - G

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but the Edmonton Oilers have a goaltending problem. Jack Campbell, brought in as a pricey free agent after seemingly wearing out his welcome with the rabid Toronto fanbase, stumbled in his attempts to take the long-suffering team the distance. He managed to regain some of his game’s strongest elements down the back stretch of the season, controlling his movement and sitting back to allow his defense to help structure breakouts and coverage while he focused on eliminating open space in net with simple movements and fluid transitions. But his start with the Oilers was shaky; he struggled to find his rhythm behind the Western Conference competitors, ultimately losing his position as the team’s number one to up-and-comer Stuart Skinner.

The good news for Oilers fans is that it appears the days are gone of doggedly attempting to milk all the value possible out of every goaltender contract signed. Head Coach Jay Woodcroft seemed to abandon the Dave Tippett-era tendency to give deferential starts to the higher-paid veteran in net, opting to ride with Skinner when Campbell was struggling and happily going back to Campbell whenever he seemed up to the task. It was a refreshing change of pace after watching Mike Smith struggle to put up league-average numbers through three seasons, and it seemed to benefit both goaltenders in the long run. But still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the Oilers have Campbell signed for another four years of five million per season against the cap, and he put up a -16.77 goals saved above expected as the team’s backup – only nine of the league’s 75 goaltenders with sufficient starting data last season did worse. The team will need to see Campbell continue his bounce-back from the back half of the season through the entirety of the 2023-24 season, or they’ll have to consider finding a way to move him out for a more steadying presence. With captain Connor McDavid turning 27 this season, Edmonton has to consider what they need to do to capitalize on the star’s window to push and become a legitimate threat in the postseason; unless Campbell bounces back definitively, he’ll fail to fit that bill.

Projected starts: 35-40

Stuart Skinner - G

The Edmonton Oilers have gone so long without seeing a goaltending prospect pan out in their favor, it seemed almost too good to be true last season when rookie Stuart Skinner gently took control of the crease from veteran Jack Campbell. But as the season progressed, it became abundantly clear; Skinner was exactly what the team needed, and he was there to stay.

Skinner, a 2017 draft pick out of the WHL, put up bumpy numbers in his first two pro seasons; he struggled to approach a .900 save percentage in either 2018-19 or 2019-20 at either the AHL or ECHL level, waffling between the two leagues without finding much success in either. But despite a rocky NHL debut in his third pro year, Skinner finally started to find his feet; he established better tracking skills and fine-tuned his technical foundation while cleaning up his game reads and becoming more patient on his skates. He initially lost a little bit of the creativity that had made his game so exciting to watch as a prospect in the CHL, but fans saw some of that spark return during Edmonton’s postseason run in the spring of 2023 as he proved he was unafraid to throw technique to the wind and mix in some old-school goaltending style when it suited him. It was like he learned to relax once he found his footing with some better technical foundations, and that’s a promising sign that his impressive game play last year wasn’t just a flash in the pan. The question, though, will be just how much he can shoulder a heavy workload if Jack Campbell continues to struggle. He held down the fort for a whopping 50 games last season and will likely need to do the same this year – while he’s still young, the kind of wear and tear that immediately taking on a starter’s workload at the NHL level can put on a young goaltender could start to qrip at the seams of his skill a little bit.

Projected starts: 50-55

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 22:30:22 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 19: Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Nicolas Hague (14) clears the puck from Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on November 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

VEGAS vs. EDMONTON

After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.

Forwards

One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.

The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.

For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.

The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.

Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.

Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.

Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.

While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.

Defense

When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.

The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.

Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.

The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.

Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.

Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.

Goaltending

Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.

Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.

This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.

Special Teams

Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.

The Golden Knights power play ranked 10^th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19^th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.

While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11^th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.

If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.

Conclusion

Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.

Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – EDMONTON OILERS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:11:28 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 19: Edmonton Oilers Center Leon Draisaitl (29) uses his speed to track down a loose puck in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the New Jersy Devils on March 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Connor McDavid

The scary thing about McDavid’s 2021-22 season is that he was relatively unlucky when it came to shooting luck and he still finished with 123 points. The game comes so easy for him that it’s rare for the Oilers not to get at least one scoring chance per shift with him on the ice, so an average shooting year for him is a career season for most. It was an interesting season or him. He was still an elite player at creating off the rush but didn’t have the scale breaking stats like the previous year. Instead, he was deferring to teammates on entries and trailing the rush instead of leading it. Still having an elite impact on driving offense and making up for any lost ground on the power play, where his 44 points were more than some team’s entire goal total with the man advantage. There was also an effort to improve his play away from the puck, as he had the Oilers playing less run-and-gun and more of a full-rink press. Keeping play in the offensive zone and deferring to someone else or making the simple play instead of trying to force things. He could still break the game open if he needed to, as most saw in the playoffs where he dragged the Oilers to the Conference Finals on his own. That version of McDavid is still present, but the Oilers are getting to the point where they don’t need him to go into superstar mode every night to win.

Leon Draisaitl

Accuracy is the name of the game for Draisaitl regardless of he’s passing or shooting the puck. A selective but lethal shooter, Draisaitl’s 55 goals would have led the league most in most seasons and he matched it with 55 assists. He’s a selective, but lethal shooter who will turn low-percentage plays into high-danger plays. Most scorers will look to find the “soft” area in the defense and with Draisaitl, that area extends all the way to the boards, as he can beat goaltenders from some awkward and impossible angles. Arguably the best player in the league at doing this not named Sidney Crosby. His passing is just as good, excelling at pulling pucks off the boards, threading the needle between defenders and turning 50/50 puck battles into scoring chances. Style points don’t count but the degree of difficulty of Draisaitl’s playmaking is something to behold. He passes the puck off his backhand as hard as some players shoot it and he usually finds the tape. It’s how he’s been able to put up ridiculous scoring numbers every year despite his team getting outshot and outchanced while he is on the ice. The deceptive nature of his game also makes the Oilers power play click because he can score from just about anywhere in the zone and find someone open for a deflection chance even if they’re covered. Now that he's playing center full-time (when healthy), he gives Edmonton the most explosive one-two punch in the NHL.

Zach Hyman

The Oilers had certain expectations for Zach Hyman when they signed him to a seven-year contract. They wanted him to be McDavid’s wingman, score on a lot of rebounds and provide a forechecking presence to a team that lacked it. Hard to not be pleased with his first year. He scored 27 goals and was a great third wheel on McDavid’s line for most of the year and giving the Oilers penalty kill a counter-attacking dynamic with five shorthanded points. The calling card with Hyman has always been forechecking and scoring “ugly” goals, usually scoring by circumstance instead of getting to the net. It’s an important quality to have on your top line, as the Oilers found out in the playoffs where Hyman had 11 tallies, three of them coming on the power play. Finding a running mate for McDavid has been long-term problem for McDavid and while it cost them, Hyman filled this void in his rookie year. His play away from McDavid is a bit of a concern, as he was underwater in terms of scoring chance and goal differential when he wasn’t on a line with the Oilers captain. It’s not a surprise given the Oilers forward depth issues, but Hyman is a good forechecker with decent puck skills and should be able to drive his own line if push comes to shove. This will be more of a concern when he’s deeper into his contract but for now, he is set to have another good year as McDavid’s wingman.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

The remaining member of the Oilers old core, RNH is the most plug-and-play type of guy the Oilers have right now. Whether you put him in the middle, on the wing, with McDavid or in the middle-six, he’s going to play his role and give you a high floor with what he brings. That said, he spent most of the year on Draisaitl’s wing and the Oilers had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net while that line was on the ice. A mid-season line switch moved RNH to essentially a third line center role and he excelled as a checker, providing a stabilizing presence in the Oilers bottom-six and keeping the team’s heads above water while their two money maker lines did their thing. It’s a tough way to use a center making over $5 mil., but RNH’s defensive game has value. He is one of their best forwards at retrieving pucks to exit the zone and the Oilers desperately need to win the minutes where their two stars aren’t on the ice. He made up for his lack of 5v5 offense on the power play, recording 22 assists with the man advantage and playing a variety of roles. His versatility makes him a valuable player but a tough one to project due to the volatile nature of the Oilers lineup. They will continue to feed him power play and penalty kill minutes, though.

Jesse Puljujarvi

It’s hard to believe how much of a lightning rod the former third overall pick was for Oilers discourse last year. Puljujarvi played a very similar game to Zach Hyman as a complementary player for McDavid, he just didn’t finish on as many of his chances, which unfortunately was his major drawback. No Oilers player was on the receiving end of more high danger passes than Puljujarvi and he scored only nine five-on-five goals on 140 scoring chances. Puck skill is one of the more frustrating parts of his game, as he will often skate himself out of room when he gets a good chance from close range or just mishit the puck, turning a high danger chance into one that’s easier to stop. It only takes one good year to change this narrative, though and it’s better to have a topliner who is producing chances and not finishing than doing neither. Aside from that, Puljujarvi is coming off a fantastic year, as the Oilers were a dominant team when he was on the ice. Part of it is the McDavid effect, but “JP” has come a long way as a defensive player, always in a good position to help retrieve pucks to get McDavid the puck in space or being a nuisance on the forecheck to keep their top line on the ice. If the goal-scoring ever comes around, the Oilers top-six will be a force.

Kailer Yamamoto

A high-motor player who will never cheat you on effort, Yamamoto had a decent bounce-back year after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He scored 20 goals for the first time in his career was a Swiss Army Knife type of winger for the Oilers, moving around the lineup filling whatever niche the coaching staff needed. While productive, his impact has been a little inconsistent, as he’s had a tough time driving play despite his strengths with recovering pucks and his willingness to go to the net. Part of that is because he doesn’t produce much offense in volume, posting one of the lowest shot rates on the Oilers and going stretches of games where he didn’t even test the goalie. Playing so much with McDavid and Draisaitl, he might have some hesitance to taking the reins on his line, deferring to the more talented players while assuming the worker bee role he’s had for most of his career. It’s tough to say if this is what was going on with Yamamoto, but he showed in the playoffs that he can drive a line, being a forechecking menace in the Calgary series and starting most of the plays with Nugent-Hopkins as his center. Seeing that reminds you that there is another level he can reach as a player even if he is in a pretty good spot now.

Ryan McLeod

Every prospect has different expectations. For Ryan McLeod, the Oilers only needed him to hold down a third- or fourth-line spot while being a neutral in terms of driving-play or suppressing goals. His impressive AHL production carrying over was secondary. His quickness gives the Oilers depth a different element from previous years, as it was rare for their third or fourth line to try and push the pace in past years. Also made him useful with covering up for the Oilers lack of mobility on their blue line, you would see him retrieve pucks for breakouts more often than their defense, even leading the rush on some shifts. The year was a grind for him, Edmonton struggled to find consistent linemates and McLeod would have to play a lot of one-man shifts where he would go from one end to the other without much payoff in the offensive zone. It was the role he needed to play, keeping the scoreboard from changing during stretches where the game becomes a slog. He is an example of how a skilled prospect can use those tools outside of creating offense because you still need to skate and connect the dots to keep the puck out of your own zone.

Evander Kane

Fresh off a buyout with the Sharks, Kane showed the Oilers that he can still score goals, tallying 22 in his 43-game stint and 13 more in 15 playoff games. Getting the “McDavid bump” on top of a career best shooting percentage, Edmonton re-signed him for four years in hopes that a full season can give McDavid a long-term solution on the wing. It’s tough to say if he can repeat this next year, as Kane has always been a shot-volume player who converts on a low percentage of his chances. The playmaking of McDavid might fix that, but line combos are always subject to change throughout the year. It’s a little concerning because 10 of his 5v5 12 five-on-five goals came while he was on a line with McDavid. By comparison, he scored only one five-on-five goal with Draisaitl centering him, which should give fantasy player some concern if the Oilers juggle their lines. His limited play-driving and passing skills make Kane a very one-dimensional player whose value is going to be determined by his goal-total, so this is a boom-or-bust signing for Edmonton.

Warren Foegele

The former Erie Otters star spent most of the year playing wing on the fourth line with his ex-Carolina teammate in Derek Ryan with some penalty killing duty thrown in. Last year was the first time it looked like he accepted his role as a grinder in the NHL, as he was still in the prospect mindset with Carolina. He had such a hot start to his NHL career that you would see him try to recapture that, making a lot of high-risk plays every shift and trying to make plays that he didn’t have the hands or precision to finish off at this level. With Edmonton, he looked a little more comfortable in his skin as a checking line player. Playing a straight-line game, not looking to carry the puck in much at all and relying more on his tenacity and forechecking to create an impact than making any plays. The result were decent impacts at five-on-five, but nothing spectacular. He also saw some power play time on the second unit, playing the netfront role and having a few pucks go off him for goals. There was more offense to Foegele’s game at one point, but this seems to be the role he has settled into for now.

DEFENSE

Evan Bouchard

Only 22 years old with the face of a grizzled veteran, Bouchard was a major lifeline for the Oilers defense. He is the prototype of what most teams look for in a young defenseman, standing over six feet tall with great puck skills and a big shot from the point, and Edmonton didn’t hold him back from showcasing this in his first full season. He carried most of the offensive load at five-on-five on their blue line, emerging as their best passer on breakout and when making plays in transition, and his shot gave defenders another thing to worry about when defending McDavid’s line. Edmonton is going to be a team that thrives on quick-strike offense, so Bouchard’s play in this area is a huge development for them, especially when it comes to leading counterattacks. His aggressive playing style did hurt him at times. He was very aggressive with stepping up at the blue line or going for a poke-check. It resulted in him negating some rushes, but he also got burned just as much. It’s an area of his game that’s fixable, especially if he’s paired with a reliable partner like Brett Kulak, and you want a guy like Bouchard to push the pace when he can. They will look to find a happy medium between the two extremes next year.

Tyson Barrie

Relegated to third pair duty, Barrie’s main purpose on the Oilers is to get the puck to McDavid or Draisaitl on the power play and not get destroyed at five-on-five. It’s easier said than done now that he’s not playing as many shifts behind the Oilers top line, which means he defends on more of his shifts and doesn’t get any opportunities to start the rush like in his Colorado days. It’s a tough game for a smaller defenseman like Barrie to play because offense is his calling card and playing more of a grinding style caters to his weakness. That said, players like Bouchard surpassed him in the lineup so this is the role he needs to play unless the Oilers deploy him differently. Which could happen if he starts the year paired with rookie Phillip Broberg. Barrie will continue to eat on the power play unless Bouchard or Darnell Nurse takes his spot. He has run the top of the umbrella on their league leading power play unit for a couple of years now, so it’s tough to see it changing for continuity purposes.

Darnell Nurse

It was a tale of two halves for the Oilers high-octane defenseman. He was paired with a similar player in Evan Bouchard, acting as both the aggressor and the fireman depending on the situation. They played behind the McDavid line, supplementing him on offense but getting burned for a lot of goals against. Once Jay Woodcroft took over, Nurse was switched to a shutdown role with Cody Ceci. Surprisingly, the two worked well and gave the Oilers blue line some stability, having one pair for offense and one for shutdown minutes. Nurse’s defensive play improved, giving up fewer chances off rushes and the Oilers played a more controlled game in front of him. He had to pick his spots on when to join the offense, but the Oilers were better off as a group. It’s an interesting way to use Nurse because his strengths are all from the red line in. He is very dangerous as the late man and can be lethal if he has any daylight with the puck but exiting the zone under pressure and shaking off forecheckers has never been his strong suit. Playing the shutdown role where he’s relied on for safe, responsible clears takes some workload off him and while he did well in that role, it’s a lot for someone carrying a $9.25 million cap hit for the next eight years. The 16-goal season where he was always pushing for offense made him one of the highest paid players in the league, even if it wasn’t the most optimal way to use him. Bouchard’s emergence took some of the burden off him and him switching roles so seamlessly is encouraging for the Oilers, even if his contract is going to be tough to deal going forward.

Brett Kulak

After exhausting most of their in-house options, the Oilers settled on trading for Kulak to round out their defense. The 28-year-old is a jack-of-all-trades defenseman can play most styles and found his niche in Edmonton as a penalty kill specialist who can help salt games away. He isn’t very big, but can skate with most top forwards, keeping them to the outside when defending entries and join the play if he needs to. He was a calming presence alongside Tyson Barrie on Edmonton’s third pair, with an elevated role late in games when the Oilers were defending a lead. Not much offense is expected of him, but he can pitch in here-and-there thanks to his great mobility and the Oilers could have him playing higher in the lineup with Duncan Keith’s old spot up for grabs. He was a reliable defender in Montreal with the only knock on his game being his play in front of the net, as his strong positioning and stickwork with defending entries doesn’t always translate to boxing out forwards. His strength with keeping play out of the defensive zone makes it not as big of a problem, though.

GOALTENDING

Jack Campbell

Edmonton has seemingly been trying to finally figure out what’s going on in their net for the last 15 years. Now, fresh off the heels of a two-year stretch under the microscope in Toronto, Jack Campbell is next up as a candidate to help the team right the ship. It’s another high-pressure situation for Campbell – but this time, he won’t be coming on board to be the team’s number two.

The once-highly-touted American netminder offers a sharp contrast to the goaltender he’ll be taking over for as the team’s clear-consensus starter. He lacks MIke Smith’s almost confrontational aura, instead opting for a “buds all day” approach that endears him to fans but can look a little less competitive overall. He plays differently, too; gone will be the days of a veteran giant manning the crease nearly from behind the goal line, replaced instead by a nimble and slightly more modern goaltender who plays a bit more centered in the blue paint and seems perfectly willing to let his defense control zone breakouts on their own. This could mean structural changes for the Edmonton blue line, although that was likely already on the horizon with Dave Tippett’s departure still fresh on the team’s mind.

The good news for Edmonton is that Campbell, who seems to thrive in a more team-oriented environment than Mike Smith ever did, shouldn’t need to worry about navigating a potentially tricky dynamic with Smith. The elder goaltender, while still under contract with the Oilers for the 2022-23 season, is expected to miss the season with a long-term injury – paving the way for Stuart Skinner to sit as the team’s number two and for Campbell to focus on his performance, not on losing starts to a hyper-competitive tandem partner. But the bad news is that Skinner remains relatively unproven on the NHL stage. This leaves Campbell without the lifeline that Smith’s experience likely would have afforded him should he find himself struggling consistency-wise during the season.

Projected starts: 60-65

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: EDMONTON VS. LOS ANGELES – Standoff down the middle between McDavid and Danault, Draisaitl and Kopitar

Corey Sznajder — Sun, 01 May 2022 18:30:43 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 07: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Mike Smith (41) makes a save as Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Darnell Nurse (25) and Los Angeles Kings Center Phillip Danault (24) look on during a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Edmonton Oilers on April 7, 2022, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles

The Edmonton Oilers enter the playoffs for the third year in a row looking for their first series win since 2017. Those five years have been filled with awful regular seasons and playoff disappointments, but they come into this year with more positive perspective. They’re on a nice 20-6-3 run since March and their five-on-five play has improved dramatically since Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach, supplementing an elite power play. On top of that, they are finally getting some solid contributions on the wings, meaning McDavid and Draisaitl can play on separate lines and McDavid playing some spectacular all-around hockey right now.

All of this speaks to them finally getting over the hump, right? Well, not necessarily. There were similar vibes going into last year’s playoffs where McDavid was running away with the Hart Trophy race only for his team to drop three straight overtime game to the Winnipeg Jets en route to a four-game sweep. Their opponent this year, the Los Angeles Kings, poses a similar challenge.

The Oilers are a better team than the Kings. They won their last three meetings, including a 4-3 win in LA just under a month ago. The Kings are also walking wounded into the playoffs, missing their star defensemen in Drew Doughty and needing to rely on youngsters like Sean Durzi or throw a truckload of minutes at 36-year-old Alex Edler, who has also battled injuries this year. There is a lot of patchwork on this Kings blue-line, and it should be a series the Oilers can win.

That’s just not how the game works, though. Hockey is often decided by the thinnest margin of errors and just one mistake or a bad matchup can throw an entire series out of whack. The Oilers know all about that from their series against the Jets and other teams such as the Toronto Maple Leafs have been on the wrong end of this as well. One challenge the Kings pose to Edmonton is one that the Leafs and a few other teams had to deal with in last year’s playoffs, Phillip Danault.

The Danault/McDavid Matchup

Danault didn’t make much of an impact on the scoresheet last Spring, scoring only one goal in 23 playoff games and tallying only four total points. Keeping the other team off the scoreboard, however, is where he shined as he was on the ice for only six total five-on-five goals throughout the playoffs. Frustrating the likes of Auston Matthews, Mark Scheifele and Mark Stone in the process. Los Angeles was impressed enough by this to sign Danault to a six-year contract and he has delivered on both ends. Scoring a career high 27 goals, his line with Viktor Arvidsson and Trevor Moore has been one of the best in the NHL from a shot volume standpoint. The trio have been excellent at tilting the ice for the Kings and provided some scoring punch to back it up.

It might not be the most dangerous collection of players, but they complement each other well. Danault has evolved into more of a Swiss-Army Knife type of center rather than a typical shutdown guy. Providing a strong presence in the defensive zone to create turnovers while the speed Arvidsson and Moore bring helps create rushes. Danault is also the master of always being in the right place and we’re seeing that more offensively. Watch some of his goals and you’ll notice most of them come from 5-10 feet around the net. Which complements the waterbug style of play of Arvidsson and Moore, who are going to throw anything and everything at the net if they get the chance. They exemplify why it’s never a bad idea to go to the net and Danault has the poise to convert on those rebound opportunities.

The elephant in the room with this matchup is that McDavid dominated it during the season series. Danault spent over 26 minutes of 5v5 time matched up against McDavid and the Kings were outscored 3-1 and struggled to contain McDavid from creating scoring chances, posting an Expected Goal Percentage of 27.5%. If McDavid “only” scores three goals against LA in a seven-game series and they win their other matchups, they might accept this, but you do not want one of your top two lines having to fight an uphill battle for most of their shifts, so they are hoping that line can play on offense a little more in this series.

An interesting note of the regular season matchup is that Woodcroft didn’t exactly shy away from playing his star against Danault when they played in Edmonton, a matchup that Kings coach Todd McLellan was more than happy to roll with. The two lines played at a stalemate, and you got a sense of how this matchup is going to tilt the series.

There are a few things to highlight. The first is how Danault’s line plays against McDavid in the defensive zone. They know the Oilers are a team that likes to take shots from the point and the wingers are very aggressive with shadowing the defenders to not give them any space. It’s a tough game because one misstep can lead to Evander Kane or McDavid wide open somewhere else in the zone, but what makes Danault such a good player on this line is that he is very good at reading where the play is going and covering up loose pucks. You can see that in this sequence after the Oilers won a faceoff.

Danault is already there to block the net shot and if he’s not there he’s in front of the net to clear the puck or start a breakout the other way. With the Kings defense being so beat up, you’ll often see them go back to protect the house while the forwards come down to retrieve most of the loose pucks. It’s a way to get some easier exits for a defense that’s inexperienced and has some slower players logging big minutes. The downside is that your coverage loosens up and are prone to breakdowns if the puck doesn’t get out, which is what happened on those last two Draisaitl chances.

The other end is how well McDavid’s line defended Danault. For all of their strengths, the way they create offense is a little predictable. They will go behind the goal line for most of their cycles, trying to draw the defense away from the front of the net in hopes of setting up a close-range chance. If it’s not open, Arvidsson or Moore will usually get a shot from the perimeter and try to loosen up the coverage that way. It’s not a bad strategy, as setting up shop from Gretzky’s Office will get you some decent scoring chances. It just didn’t yield many results for the Kings because the Oilers knew it was coming. Their defense didn’t chase or cheat when the Kings tried to setup from there and didn’t bother defending the points. You can see the Oilers had as many as three players patrolling the front of the net in some of these clips. Danault’s offense has come a long way, but this is where the lack of a game-breaker like Johnny Gaudreau could hurt the Kings.

The ”other” matchup

The matchup between Leon Draisaitl and Anze Kopitar isn’t short of narratives. Draisaitl just had his third 100+ point season in the past four years and is of a similar build to Kopitar in his prime. The difference being that Kopitar was one of the best two-way players in the league and Draisaitl is a one-way player in the most extreme sense of the word. Imagine having Kopitar’s size, vision and playmaking ability but you replaced all of his defensive awareness with an obscene one-timer and an even better wrist shot. That is Leon Draisaitl in a nutshell, and this is going to be a great matchup if they go head-to-head. Kopitar isn’t the offensive force he was during LA’s Cup runs, but he is still one of the best at slowing the game down, keeping the puck down low and creating space for his linemates. Adrian Kempe has benefited from this with a 30+ goal season and emerging as one of the Kings best players in transition.

Draisaitl’s line has made a living by outscoring their defensive shortcomings the past four years. It’s a tough thing to bank on, but Draisaitl rare combination of elite passing and shooting can be enough to at least win a matchup against a team that struggles to score like the Kings. You saw in the earlier clip how they got a couple of chances and a goal against Danault’s line during the season series from just retrieving and cycling the puck to death. Having two puck hounds like Zach Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto helps this cause. They’re at a slight speed disadvantage against defenders like Durzi or Jordan Spence, but it doesn’t matter as much when you have possession of the puck and the ability to get the puck through traffic like Draisaitl can. When the play is going to the other way in transition is where the issues arise but again, they’re banking on this line to outscore their problems, which they can do if the Kings can’t find someone else to create off the rush to help Kempe.

X-Factors: Breakouts and Mistakes

The word “patchwork” was used to describe the Kings defense and while that is true, the Oilers have their own roster shuffle going on there too. They’re similar to the Kings with how much their forwards help on breakouts and it’s going to be critical that they play a clean game exiting the zone. Sloppy puck retrievals are breakouts are usually how playoff series are decided because that’s where the foundation to both your offense and defensive play starts. A clean retrieval and exit leads to good offense while a turnover leads to offense for the other team and a chain reaction of you playing in your own zone until you can clear the puck.

This has been a sore spot for both the Oilers and Kings defense.

Both teams have similar but different issues. Edmonton’s defense doesn’t turn the puck over when retrieving the puck that often, but they have a devil of a time starting any breakouts when they have to start play from their own zone. This puts a lot of pressure on McDavid and their other forwards to help out and makes them expend a lot of energy with just getting up the ice. The Kings, on the other hand, are better at starting breakouts, but they also turn the puck over a lot, some of the main culprits being their stronger puck movers in Durzi, Troy Stecher and Jordan Spence. This is where not having Drew Doughty hurts, although they will be getting two of their more reliable defensemen back in Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy. How they dole out of the minutes without a true #1 to settle everything down remains to be seen.

That said, this issue goes both ways, as the Oilers defense has had a lot of issues handling forecheck pressure. Which is where they’re hoping the deadline acquisition of Brett Kulak pays off.

X-Factors Evan Bouchard and Quinton Byfield

Taking nothing away from Darnell Nurse, it would not be a surprise if Evan Bouchard ends up being the best defenseman in this series. The “second” year blue liner has been trusted with a full-time role alongside Duncan Keith and gives the Oilers an excellent complement to the McDavid line. He is one of Edmonton’s only defensemen who can beat a forecheck without making a mess of the puck and he returns the favor at the other end with how he intercepts other team’s breakouts. The Kings had a very tough time dealing with him in their last matchup and he can be a huge difference maker for the Oilers.

If there’s anything that can give LA a major leg up in this series, it’s a coming out party for their future star, Quinton Byfield. The youngster’s had a rough go of it to start his NHL career, starting the season on injured reserve and spending most of his shifts getting the puck out of the defensive zone and not showing the high-end skill that got him drafted. You see it in spurts, though and LA’s bottom-six isn’t the easiest place to put up points. That said, this series is a good chance for him to have a breakout. The skill is there, and Edmonton’s depth can be exposed. The Kings also have some good players to pair him with if everyone is healthy and the Danault line isn’t tinkered with. Byfield hasn’t gotten much time with Arthur Kaliyev or Alex Iafallo, who could make a great third line if LA wants to play the matchup game.

Prediction:

The Kings are a team on the rise and there’s a lot of hesitancy to pick Edmonton after so many years of disappointment. That said, this should be a series the Oilers win. There’s enough for things to go wrong, but they’ve been the better five-on-five team, have three of the top five players in the series and are currently healthier. The goaltending and foot speed issues on the blue line are going to be a problem deeper in the playoffs, but they should be able to conquer their first-round demons.

Edmonton in 6

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Mason Marchment, Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 18:59:06 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Florida Panthers are a rising tide that lifts all ships, including Mason Marchment. Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 19: Florida Panthers left wing Mason Marchment (17) skates in the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning on October 19, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Florida Panthers left winger Mason Marchment exploded into the fantasy consciousness this week with a six-point game at Columbus, lifting him to 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games this season. For added value, Marchment also has 51 hits in those 22 games, and has a good thing going with rookie center Anton Lundell and right winger Sam Reinhart. While there is reason to be optimistic about Marchment as a legitimate contributor in fantasy, note that his on-ice shooting percentage of 14.7% is very high and not likely to sustain at that level. Given his physical contributions, though, Marchment still has fantasy appeal even if he isn’t likely to continue scoring at a point-per-game pace.

#2 Aside from Marchment, forwards that are likely to see some regression in their numbers based on inflated 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages: Ryan Hartman (14.4%), Kirill Kaprizov (13.7%), Mark Stone (13.6%), Mats Zuccarello (13.4%), Rem Pitlick (13.3%), Max Pacioretty (13.2%), Anton Lundell (13.1%), Nazem Kadri (13.0%), and Tom Wilson (12.9%). Keep your eyes on the top lines in Minnesota and Vegas because, as skilled as they are, it can be difficult to maintain such lofty percentages.

#3 On the other hand, some skilled forwards that could be looking at better results because, so far, they have had a low on-ice shooting percentage: Brock Boeser (4.4%), Kevin Hayes (4.8%), Filip Zadina (4.8%), James van Riemsdyk (5.1%), Kyle Palmieri (5.2%), Sean Monahan (5.3%), Nils Hoglander (5.4%), Mike Hoffman (5.4%), William Karlsson (5.5%), and Elias Pettersson (5.5%). Players with a low on-ice shooting percentage tend to make good trade targets because the perception of their value is diminished.

#4 Since the NHL schedule pause in December, the Florida Panthers have been a high-octane attack, averaging 4.88 goals/60 in all situations in 18 games played during that span. The team with the second-highest goal-scoring rate in that time is the Toronto Maple Leafs (4.35 G/60), more than a half-goal per 60 minutes behind the Panthers. The Minnesota Wild (4.27), Carolina Hurricanes (3.87), and Pittsburgh Penguins (3.81) round out the top five teams.

#5 A big piece of the trade that sent Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, Alex Tuch has really responded to his increased role with the Buffalo Sabres. A native of Syracuse, New York, Tuch has produced 13 points (5 G, 8 A) along with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:46 time on ice in 13 games for the Sabres. He has combined with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner to give the Sabres a legitimately dangerous top line.

SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 25: Seattle Kraken left wing Jared McCann (16) handles the puck during an NHL game between the Nashville Predators and the Seattle Kraken on January 25, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#6 One of the best selections by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, Jared McCann has tied a career high with 19 goals in just 41 games. He is scoring on 18.1% of his shots, which is a tad high, but McCann could also play more than the 16:04 average time on ice per game he has been getting with Seattle.

#7 After signing a big free agent deal in Calgary in the summer, Blake Coleman struggled to produce offensively, but he was starting to round into form heading into the All-Star break, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal in his last 10 games. From the time he arrived in the league, Coleman has increased his fantasy value with his hit totals and 89 hits in 41 games this season gives him some of that added appeal now that his scoring numbers have picked up.

#8 In the past couple of seasons, Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has established that he is an elite checking winger, with outstanding impact during 5-on-5 play, but he has not been a big scorer. That has changed somewhat this season. He has missed time, playing in just 28 games, but Nichushkin has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and 75 shots on goal while playing a career high 18:14 per game. That shot rate is climbing, too – 52 in his past 16 games works out to 3.25 per game.

#9 The Toronto Maple Leafs have tried other combinations of forwards, but it turns out that their best option to skate on the left side with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line is Michael Bunting, the 26-year-old who is still a rookie. In his past 23 games, Bunting has chipped in 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 20 of those points have at even strength. His ability to do things that his linemates can’t makes him a strong fit in that spot.

#10 When Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev asked for a trade in the offseason, the Maple Leafs declined to take him up on that request and had high hopes for him for the 2021-2022 season, but that was stalled when he suffered a broken thumb in the preseason. Mikheyev played one game in mid-December before the schedule pause but in the dozen games since, he has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 37 shots on goal. For a player who was a notoriously poor finisher in his previous two seasons, Mikheyev is starting to find the net and raising the price of his value on the upcoming free agent market.

#11 The Vegas Golden Knights just signed defenseman Brayden McNabb to a three-year contract extension and while McNabb is not a typical fantasy darling because he does not register a lot of points – he has finished with more than 16 points once in his career – McNabb does have some deep league appeal because he is a consistent source of hits and blocked shots. McNabb has averaged a combined 4.72 hits plus blocked shots per game this season, which ranks 10^th among defensemen that have appeared in at least 20 games.

#12 The nine defensemen ahead of McNabb in combined hits plus blocked shots per game: Radko Gudas (5.89), Alexander Romanov (5.32), Luke Schenn (5.30), Rasmus Ristolainen (5.17), Jacob Trouba (5.11), Connor Murphy (4.93), Darnell Nurse (4.91), Mario Ferraro (4.90), and Erik Cernak (4.76).

#13 After scoring 65 points in 2017-2018, Arizona Coyotes winger Clayton Keller has stumbled along for the past three seasons, well behind that rate of production. It seems that he might have turned the corner this season, even as the Coyotes languish near the bottom of the league. In his past 29 games, Keller has 32 points (14 G, 18 A) and 90 shots on goal.

#14 Veteran Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner scored 30 goals during the 2015-2016 season but has not scored more than 18 goals in any other season. This season, Jenner is up to 18 goals after producing 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 35 shots on goal in the last 11 games before the All-Star break. He is not recording hits at the same level as he did earlier in his career, when he had four 200-hit seasons, but Jenner’s improved goal-scoring and shot rate still makes him a valuable contributor.

#15 The Los Angeles Kings have tried to focus on improving their team speed and it is starting to pay off. Winger Viktor Arvidsson, who they acquired from Nashville in the offseason, has really picked up his play in 2022. In his past 15 games, Arvidsson has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) along with 59 shots on goal. Alex Iafallo is another speedy winger who has had an impact on the Kings’ improving playoff fortunes. Averaging a career-high 2.87 shots on goal per game, Iafallo has 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 45 games, which puts him well within striking distance of his career high of 17 goals, set in 2019-2020.

#16 As the New York Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to play 40 games, they do offer more potential value for the rest of the NHL season. One player to consider for the Isles is center Brock Nelson, who has been heating up with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in the past nine games. The five-time 20-goal scorer has 14 goals in 30 games this season.

#17 A left winger that looked like good value on the free agent market last summer (as compared to big-ticket signing Zach Hyman, for example), Brandon Saad has been quietly effective with the St. Louis Blues. Saad has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games and is up to 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 40 games.

#18 There have been lots of rumors about the Arizona Coyotes dealing defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has not been terribly productive this season, managing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 34 games. This after finishing with a career high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games last season. Presumably, the opportunity to play for a more competitive team would work in Chychrun’s favor but it is noteworthy that Shayne Gostisbehere has been putting up numbers for the Coyotes this season, accumulating 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 45 games, which is tied for 16^th among defensemen.

#19 Another defenseman who has term left on his contract but could be available on the trade market is Montreal Canadiens veteran Jeff Petry, who may have had the best season of his career in 2020-2021, producing 42 points (12 G, 30 A) in 55 games. This season has been an entirely different story for Petry, as he shockingly has just six points (1 G, 5 A) in 37 games. As a player that tends to contribute to peripheral fantasy hockey categories like hits and blocked shots, too, Petry had plenty of fantasy value when he was scoring but right now, not so much.

#20 The hunt for goaltending at this stage of the season does not offer a lot of options. I wrote last week about Ville Husso, Pavel Francouz, and Matt Murray, and their varying degrees of fantasy value, but also consider Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cal Petersen, who has not seized the starting job in the way that might have been expected, in part because Jonathan Quick played so well early in the season. However, Quick has slumped lately, posting a .873 save percentage in 10 games since the schedule pause, and Petersen is 6-1 with a .914 save percentage in his past seven appearances.

#21 While Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek is not exactly pushing for the starting job, he will have an opportunity to play more as starter Jack Campbell has lost some measure of his early season excellence. Mrazek does have a .921 save percentage in four games since returning from the schedule pause while Campbell has a .891 save percentage in nine games since returning from the December schedule pause.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.