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Tampa Bay 25 Prospects ]]>
Prospect System Rank – 30th (Previous Rank - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013
The Tampa Bay Lightning continues to embody the "run it back" philosophy, relying on a veteran core to remain competitive year after year. It's hard to argue with the results, as they are just two years removed from three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances and back-to-back championships. However, with aging veterans and little value sitting on the shelves, the end of the runway may be in sight.
Julien BriseBois has been notably averse to first-round picks, having selected in the first round only twice since his hiring in 2018. Unless future trades are made, that trend could continue into the 2025 NHL Entry Draft after bringing back a familiar face in Ryan McDonough for a top 10 protected first pick.
However, for the first time in what feels like a decade, perhaps we’ve finally seen a change in strategy.
In a surprising move, the Lightning acquired top prospect Conor Geekie (ranked 32nd by McKeen’s) from the Utah Hockey Club in exchange for 26-year-old Mikael Sergachev. This trade gives Tampa Bay their first top 50 McKeen’s ranked prospect in quite some time and may signal a shift towards replenishing their prospect pool—an unfamiliar prospect for Lightning fans.
Adding the likes of Geekie, who may even see games in the 2024-25 campaign, is a step in the right direction, but there is still a long road ahead.
Gage Goncalves, a 2020 second-round pick, has been developing steadily in Syracuse, coming off a strong season with 58 points in 69 games to finish just outside the top 10 in AHL scoring. At 23 years old, he’s likely to be given a longer leash after a brief stint in the 2023-24 season.
Isaac Howard (157th), the Lightnings’ only first-round draft pick in the last five years, remains a key part of their future, though he will continue to develop at the collegiate level with Michigan State. While there’s hope he could see NHL ice time as early as this spring, the team’s status as a perennial playoff contender raises questions about whether rushing him into the lineup is the best course of action.
The recent swap of Steven Stamkos for Jake Guentzel indicates that the Lightning will continue their push to remain relevant as long as players like Victor Hedman (33), Nikita Kucherov (31), Brayden Point (28) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (30) are in town.
Tampa Bay’s championship window is still wide open, but with little depth, and a lack of draft capital, they are treading in dangerous waters for the future.
One of the big pieces acquired from Utah in the Mikhail Sergachev deal, Geekie immediately became Tampa’s best prospect. The big power pivot is such a difficult player to stop North/South, as he drives the middle lane with speed and advanced puck protection ability. The former 11th overall selection nearly broke the 100-point barrier in the WHL last season and is ready to take that next step as a pro. The big debate surrounding Geekie revolves around his upside as an NHL player. When his size and power advantage is neutralized, how effective will he be as an offensive player? Does he think the game at a high enough level to drive play and make those around him better at the NHL level? Geekie’s future could take a variety of different turns. Could he be a top six power center cut from the same cloth as the Tkachuk brothers? Or is he destined to be more of a bottom six contributor? Tampa Bay will learn a lot more about Geekie’s upside this year at the pro level.
Gauthier, the son of former NHL defender Denis Gauthier, and the 37th overall pick in last year’s draft, had another successful season in the QMJHL, this time with Drummondville after an offseason trade. The physically assertive forward plays a pro style game that revolves around being able to earn touches between the hash marks. He drives the net, forechecks hard, and has continued to round out his game as a two-way player. Gauthier also shoots the puck well and his goal scoring ability is the component of his offensive arsenal that likely translates the best to the pro level. To be an effective pro, Gauthier continues to work on his skating, working to become more explosive and agile. He’ll return to the QMJHL this season and should be one of the league’s top forwards as a 20-year-old. Depending on the development of his off puck play and skating, he could be NHL ready, sooner rather than later.
Howard, the team’s only first round selection in the last five years, had a terrific sophomore season after hitting the transfer portal the previous offseason. Howard shifted from Minnesota-Duluth to Michigan State, and it had a very positive impact on his development. He led the Spartans in scoring last year and also played a crucial role for the United States at the WJC’s, helping them capture gold. Howard was noticeably stronger on the puck last season, helping him take greater advantage of his strong skating ability to generate scoring chances. He’s a very dangerous player on the counterattack, and despite his low goal total at Michigan State, actually possesses high upside as a goal scorer because of his quick release. Howard will return to Michigan State this year as a junior and he should be considered a preseason candidate for the Hobey Baker. He might just have the highest upside of any player in Tampa’s system.
Huuhtanen continued on the terrific development path that he started after a breakout season with WHL Everett in 2022. Two years ago, he was the rookie of the year in Liiga and this past year he led Jukurit in scoring. The big power forward signed late last season and finished his year in the AHL, giving him a taste of what to expect this coming year, his first as a pro in North America. Huuhtanen is a throwback power winger who plays a very heavy game. He’s a relentless physical player who is still learning how to walk the line in terms of discipline. However, he is most effective when he plays the power game, dominating the wall and the net front area. Huuhtanen is a prolific goal scorer, too, thanks to a very heavy release and one timer. His positive development curve has put him on a path to become a quality middle six option for the Lightning in the near future.
It’s been a long road for Goncalves. The former WHL standout has now played three seasons in the AHL, improving in each of them. He led Syracuse in scoring by a significant margin this past season and finally earned a cup of coffee with the Lightning. The two-way pivot has proven to be a versatile pro. He plays an intelligent game at both ends, excelling on and off the puck. His attention to detail as a defensive player is likely going to be the thing that gets him into the NHL in a depth role before he carves out a larger one. As an offensive player, his vision and playmaking ability stand out most. He understands how to alter pace to manipulate defenses and is hard on pucks to help his line prolong offensive zone time. This year, Goncalves will need to pass through waivers in order to go to the AHL, so it seems likely that if he has a good camp, he will be given a bottom six role in Tampa Bay.
The Lightning have to be ecstatic about what Crozier showed this past season after turning pro. Earlier last season he did not look out of place in Tampa Bay when the Lightning were having serious injury issues on the blueline. Closing out the year with Syracuse, Crozier was a near point per game defender in the AHL. Full of confidence, we saw the full scope of the impact that he can have on the game at both ends. The 6-foot-2 right shot defender does a lot of things well. He defends well thanks to an aggressive approach, a long reach, and good mobility. He takes away space from opposing forwards and defends tight spaces well thanks to his physical assertiveness. Crozier also makes a clean exit pass and has flashed an ability to quarterback the powerplay, with a strong ability to get shots through traffic. While Crozier might not have significant NHL upside, he looks like someone who can be a stable #4 or 5 defender for many years.
Carlile is about to be a third-year pro after a strong performance at Merrimack College and is a standout in the defensive end. He projects as a quality stay at home defender at the NHL level and he may be ready for an NHL roster spot as early as this season. He has the size. He has the reach. He is mobile. He brings physicality. He has an active stick but is also aggressive in taking away space. Carlile looks like he can help anchor a penalty killing unit in the NHL. As an offensive player, his heavy point shot helps to generate scoring chances or goals and he can make a good exit pass, but he is at his best when he keeps things simple. Much like Max Crozier, Carlile looks like a long time NHL defender for Tampa Bay, but probably tops out as a third pairing type.
On a Michigan team full of potential front end NHL players, Duke stood out consistently for all the right reasons this past season, finishing third in scoring and first in goals on the Wolverines. It was a very promising junior season for the diminutive pivot. Duke has always been a highly skilled playmaker who creates time and space for himself with his hands, but upgrades to his strength, off puck play, shot, and skating really upgraded his projection as a pro. Somewhat surprisingly, Duke decided to turn pro, signing with Tampa Bay at the end of the season. It might have been wise for him to return to Michigan to continue to upgrade his physical tools; he would have had a shot at being one of the better players in College Hockey this year. However, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the AHL level. While he may still be a bit of a long shot given his lack of high-end physical tools, his upside remains intriguing.
The massive center took a nice step forward in his second pro season with Syracuse last year. Teams have to be patient with bigger forwards as they grow into their frame and Finley has been no different. He dominated down low at the WHL level before turning pro but had to continue to upgrade his strength and conditioning in order to do that at the AHL level. Behind the net is his office and he has very good vision coming off the wall and the cycle. Finley has also had to adjust to the pace of the pro game, especially as an only average skater. He’s likely still a bit away from making an impact in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have to be hoping that he can continue to develop into an Adam Lowry kind of high end third line center in the future. The Lightning will be hoping that Finley can inch closer to the point per game mark with Syracuse this year.
Pylenkov’s development has been steady since the Lightning drafted him in 2021 in his second last year of eligibility. Now 23 (turning 24 soon), Pylenkov has emerged as one of the top young defencemen in the KHL. He still has a year remaining on his KHL deal so he won’t be coming over this year, but after that? He could be an option for Tampa as a bottom pairing defender. Pylenkov is certainly not a flashy player, however he’s a very crafty one. He makes a clean exit. He is a great stick on-puck defender. He makes sound decisions with his reads with and without the puck. His NHL upside is likely limited, but the progression of his offensive game in the KHL suggests that his projection could continue to improve. Defensive depth never hurts and Tampa has built that up well.
Last year’s winner of Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey Award, Burrows was a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2024. The big winger was excellent last season, splitting time between the USHL and high school hockey. Burrows plays a mature game, tough to separate from the puck and an excellent playmaker coming off the wall. There’s a definitive need for him to improve his skating and he’ll try to do that at the University of Denver this season.
Expectations were pretty high for Alnefelt a few years ago when he made the jump from the SHL to the AHL in Tampa’s system. At the time, he was considered one of the top European goaltending prospects. Since then, his development has stagnated to a certain degree. He has the tools to be one, but consistency has remained an issue for him. He will compete for the back-up job this year, but still has another year of waiver eligibility remaining.
One of the most skilled and creative players in Tampa’s system, Shaugabay opted to play a full season in the USHL last season before making the jump to the NCAA. This allowed the diminutive forward to continue to build strength so that he can take greater advantage of his offensive gifts. Shaugabay will now head to Minnesota-Duluth this year and will likely be given a good shot to play a key offensive role as a freshman.
After a strong rookie season in the AHL two years ago, last season was a step back for Edmonds. No question, he’s a talented playmaker. However, there’s a strong need for him to upgrade his physical tools still to be a more consistent pro. 2024/25 is going to be a critical season for his development. A qualifying offer is likely dependent on his performance and progress.
The Lightning have had some good success signing free agents out of the CHL and the team dipped into that pool again a few times last year. Czech pivot and former Kelowna Rocket captain Gabriel Szturc is one such player. He’s a competitive, two-way, playmaker who, ignoring the cliche, plays much larger than his size. He projects as a versatile bottom six forward for Tampa Bay.
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They are only two seasons removed from a Stanley Cup Final appearance, following back-to-back cup wins. Two first-round exits in a row have many analysts questioning whether the window to win is closing. GM Julien Brisebois has been at the helm for the success and has been clear he still very much believes in this core to become champions once again and has repeatedly pushed his chips to the center of the table, trading future for the present. They are one of only two teams with no graduated prospects in the last five years. They do not pick until the fifth round in 2024 and have already moved their 2025 pick in a massive package of picks for Tanner Jeannot. Their 2024 pick was used in a package (including a 2023 1st round pick and other pieces) for Brandon Hagel.
Jeannot is 26 years old, and a UFA at the end of the season, while Hagel is 25, and has subsequently signed an eight-year extension with the team. They join a core group that is not as old as reports would have you believe. 34-year-old Steven Stamkos and his free agency will dominate the news over the offseason. Victor Hedman is 33 years old but showed he still has a lot to offer this season after a down year in 2022-23. If Stamkos does sign elsewhere, it will free up valuable cap space. An issue that has been a continuous challenge for the organization. The Lightning are focused on winning with this core. They include one of the best players in the world in Nikita Kucherov, who is only 30 years old, and elite goaltender Andrei Vasilevsky at 29, along with 28-year-old Brayden Point, and 25-year-old Mikhail Sergachev (injured this past season). You have a core that is elite and knows how to win. With or without Stamkos, Tampa will be a contender for a few years yet.
| RNK | PLAYER | POS | AGE | HT/WT | TM | Acquired | GP | G(W) | A(L) | PTS(GAA) | PIM(SPCT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethan Gauthier | RW | 19 | 5-11/175 | Drummondville (QMJHL) | `23(37th) | 64 | 36 | 35 | 71 | 42 |
| 2 | Isaac Howard | LW | 20 | 5-10/185 | Michigan State (B1G) | `22(31st) | 36 | 8 | 28 | 36 | 10 |
| 3 | Niko Huuhtanen | RW | 20 | 6-2/205 | Jukurit (Fin-Liiga) | `21(224th) | 52 | 19 | 27 | 46 | 46 |
| 4 | Gage Goncalves | C | 23 | 6-1/170 | Syracuse (AHL) | `20(62nd) | 69 | 13 | 45 | 58 | 43 |
| 5 | Max Crozier | D | 24 | 6-1/195 | Syracuse (AHL) | `19(120th) | 49 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 43 |
| 5 | Max Crozier | D | 24 | 6-1/195 | Tampa Bay (NHL) | `19(120th) | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Declan Carlile | D | 23 | 6-2/190 | Syracuse (AHL) | FA(3/22) | 61 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 26 |
| 7 | Hugo Alnefelt | G | 22 | 6-3/195 | Syracuse (AHL) | `19(71st) | 30 | 14 | 8 | 2.76 | 0.893 |
| 8 | Jack Finley | C | 21 | 6-6/215 | Syracuse (AHL) | `20(57th) | 52 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Dylan Duke | LW | 21 | 5-10/180 | Michigan (B1G) | `21(126th) | 41 | 26 | 23 | 49 | 30 |
| 10 | Daniil Pylenkov | D | 23 | 6-1/195 | Dynamo Moskva (KHL) | `21(196th) | 67 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | Dyllan Gill | D | 19 | 6-1/180 | Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL) | `22(223rd) | 12 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Jayson Shaugabay | RW | 18 | 5-9/155 | Green Bay (USHL) | `23(115th) | 62 | 15 | 40 | 55 | 12 |
| 13 | Lucas Edmonds | RW | 23 | 5-10/180 | Syracuse (AHL) | `22(86th) | 45 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 6 |
| 14 | Connor Kurth | RW | 20 | 5-11/205 | Minnesota (B1G) | `22(192nd) | 37 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 14 |
| 15 | Roman Schmidt | D | 21 | 6-5/210 | Kit-Kgn (OHL) | `21(96th) | 47 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 62 |
Ethan Gauthier, the son of former NHL defender Denis Gauthier and the 37th overall pick in last year’s draft, had another successful season in the QMJHL, this time with Drummondville after an offseason trade. The physically assertive forward plays a pro-style game that revolves around being able to earn touches between the hash marks. He drives the net, forechecks hard, and has continued to round out his game as a two-way player. He also shoots the puck well and his goal-scoring ability is the component of his offensive arsenal that likely translates the best to the pro level. To be an effective pro, he continues to work on his skating, working to become more explosive and agile. He’ll return to the QMJHL next season and should be one of the league’s top forwards as a 20-year-old. Depending on the development of his off puck play and skating, he could be NHL ready, sooner, rather than later.
Isaac Howard, the team’s only first round selection in the last four years, had a terrific sophomore season after hitting the transfer portal last offseason. Howard shifted from Minnesota-Duluth to Michigan State, and it had a very positive impact on his development. He led the Spartans in scoring this year and also played a crucial role for the United States at the WJC’s, helping them capture gold. He was noticeably stronger on the puck this year, helping him take greater advantage of his strong skating ability to generate scoring chances. He’s a very dangerous player on the counterattack, and despite his low goal total at Michigan State, actually possesses high upside as a goal scorer because of his quick release. Howard will return to Michigan State next year as a junior and he should be considered a preseason candidate for the Hobey Baker. Without question, he has the highest upside of any player in Tampa’s system.
Niko Huuhtanen has continued on the terrific development path that he started after a breakout season with Everett of the WHL in 2022. Last year he was the rookie of the year in Liiga and this year he led Jukurit in scoring. The big, power forward remains unsigned, but there has to be a strong chance that he signs soon and plays next year in North America again. Huuhtanen is a throwback power winger who plays a very heavy game. He’s a relentless physical player who is still learning how to walk the line in terms of discipline. However, he is most effective when he plays the power game, dominating the wall and the net front area. He is a prolific goal scorer too, thanks to a very heavy release and one timer. His positive development curve has put him on a path to become a quality middle six option for the Lightning in the near future.
It’s been a long road for Goncalves. The former WHL standout has now played three seasons in the AHL, improving in each of them. He led Syracuse in scoring by a significant margin this year and finally earned a cup of coffee with the Lightning. The two-way pivot has proven to be a versatile pro. He plays an intelligent game at both ends, excelling on and off the puck. His attention to detail as a defensive player is likely going to be the thing that gets him into the NHL in a depth role before he carves out a larger one. As an offensive player, his vision and playmaking ability stand out most. He understands how to alter pace to manipulate defenses and is hard on pucks to help his line prolong offensive zone time. Next year, He will need to pass through waivers in order to go to the AHL, so it seems likely that if he has a good camp, he will be given a bottom six role.
The Lightning have to be ecstatic about what Max Crozier has shown this year after turning pro. Earlier this season he did not look out of place in Tampa Bay when the Lightning were having serious injury issues on the blueline. Closing out the year in the AHL, he has been a near point per game defender. Full of confidence, we’re seeing the full scope of the impact that he can have on the game at both ends. The 6’ 2”, right shot defender is one of those players who does a lot of things well. He defends well thanks to an aggressive approach, a long reach, and good mobility. He takes away space from opposing forwards and defends tight spaces well thanks to his physical assertiveness. He makes a clean exit pass and has flashed an ability to quarterback the powerplay, with a strong ability to get shots through traffic. While he might not have significant NHL upside, he can be a stable #4 or 5 defender for many years.
A second-year pro after a strong performance at Merrimack College, Carlile is a standout in the defensive end. He projects as a quality stay at home defender at the NHL level and he may be ready for an NHL roster spot as early as next season. He possesses the size. He has the reach. He is mobile. He brings physicality. He owns an active stick, but is also aggressive in taking away space. Carlile looks like someone who can help anchor a penalty killing unit in the NHL. As an offensive player, his heavy point shot helps to generate scoring chances or goals and he can make a good exit pass, but he is at his best when he keeps things simple. Much like Max Crozier, he looks like a long time NHL defender for Tampa Bay, but probably tops out as a third pairing type.
Expectations were pretty high for Alnefelt a few years ago when he made the jump from the SHL to the AHL in Tampa’s system. At the time, he was considered one of the top European goaltending prospects. Since then, his development has stagnated to a certain degree. He hasn’t been awful for Syracuse, but he also hasn’t shown the kind of growth you would expect from a future NHL netminder. He has the tools to be one, but consistency has remained an issue for him. However, without much else in the system at the moment, Alnefelt remains the team’s top option for the future behind Vasilevsky. He will compete for the back-up job next year but does still have another year of waiver eligibility remaining. That means he probably returns to Syracuse, where Tampa will be hoping he finally takes that next step as one of the AHL’s top netminders.
The massive center has taken a nice step forward in his second pro season with Syracuse. Teams have to be patient with bigger forwards as they grow into their frame and he has been no different. He dominated down low at the WHL level before turning pro but had to continue to upgrade his strength and conditioning in order to do that at the AHL level. Behind the net is his office and he has very good vision coming off the wall and the cycle. Finley has also had to adjust to the pace of the pro game, especially as an only average skater. He’s likely still a bit away from making an impact in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have to be hoping that he can continue to develop into an Adam Lowry kind of high end third line center in the future.
On a Michigan team full of potential front end NHL players, Duke stood out consistently for all the right reasons this year, finishing third in scoring and first in goals on the Wolverines. It was a very promising junior season for the diminutive pivot. He has always been a highly skilled playmaker who creates time and space for himself with his hands, but upgrades to his strength, off puck play, shot, and skating really upgraded his projection as a pro. Somewhat surprisingly, Duke decided to turn pro, signing with Tampa Bay recently. It might have been wise for him to return to Michigan to continue to upgrade his physical tools; he would have had a shot at being one of the better players in college hockey next year. While he may still be a bit of a long shot given his lack of high-end physical tools, his upside remains intriguing. Outside of Isaac Howard, no one in this system has the offensive upside that he possesses.
Daniil Pylenkov’s development has been steady since the Lightning drafted him in 2021 in his second last year of eligibility. Now 23, Pylenkov has emerged as one of the top young defensemen in the KHL. He still has a year remaining on his KHL deal so he won’t be coming over next year, but after that? He could be an option for Tampa as a bottom pairing defender. Pylenkov is certainly not a flashy player. However, he’s a very crafty one. He makes a clean exit. He is a great stick on puck defender. He makes sound decisions with his reads with and without the puck. His NHL upside is likely limited, but the progression of his offensive game in the KHL does suggest that his projection could continue to improve.
PROSPECT CRITERIA: Players under 26 years of age as of 9/15/2024 who have appeared in less than 60 games (30 for goalies) and less than 25 in one season (25 for goalies).
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1 - Isaac Howard LW
Isaac Howard is an interesting prospect, as, just looking at it on paper, his selection near the back of the first round of the NHL draft is a bit confusing. His production is there, as he scored at a far-above point-per-game rate at the U.S. National Team Development Program. Howard also plays with the skill level of a top-end offensive prospect, with the playmaking skill, puckhandling, and skating ability. The tools are all there with Howard. But the concerns with his profile, and the factors that likely contributed to his selection late in the first round, are largely based on his style. Howard’s offensive tools are strong, but the way he uses them can be, at times, inefficient. The best offensive prospects in hockey are the ones who are able to reach a different level of thinking when it comes to each shift. Shane Wright, for example, is exceptional at leveraging his space on the ice without the puck to create space for his teammates. Kent Johnson, as another example, has, like Howard, a high skill level, but he deploys that skill level with such ingenuity, creativity, and unpredictability that he’ll find ways to remain productive even against talented NHL defensemen. Howard’s skill level rivals the best prospects in his age group, but he’s a bit behind on how he actually utilizes his wide array of talents. He’s relentless and willing to attack the difficult middle of the ice, but he doesn’t deceive his opponents or manipulate play the way other prospects can. Howard can create a significant number of chances for himself and his linemates, but one wonders how effective he’ll be at higher levels of hockey when he needs to find a way to remain productive with two or three chances a game, rather than ten. Thankfully, though, Howard will head to college where he’ll have a long runway to refine his offensive approach and make it more translatable to the pro game. He has all the tools to become an NHL scorer, he just needs to improve his toolbox. - EH
2 - Jack Thompson D
The 93rd overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, Jack Thompson had a great season in the OHL split between two teams, being an impact player on both sides of the puck. The former 30th overall selection in the 2018 OHL Draft had a good rookie year, finishing with 16 points (6G,10A) in 52 games. During the 2019-2020 season, Thompson took a step in his development and became a very effective defenseman for the Wolves, leading the teams’ blue line in points with 32 (13G,19A) in 63 games while still being solid defensively. During the 2020-2021 season while the OHL was shutdown due to Covid-19, Thompson made the decision like others to go play in Europe. Thompson played in the HockeyEttan and was very productive, finishing with 18 points (9G,9A) in 18 games. Thompson also got the opportunity like some others to play in the AHL, which was an exception made because of the OHL being shutdown. In the 2021-2022 season, Thompson had a great year, being a top producing defenseman on both the Wolves and the Greyhounds. Altogether between both teams he finished with 57 points (21G,36A) in 65 games, which was 7th in the league for points by a defenseman, tied for 1st in the league for goals by a defenseman and 4th on the team in points. Thompson’s best assets are his shot and hockey sense. Thompson is an offensive threat, especially on the power play with his cannon of a shot. He has a great shot, and he understands how to use it, getting shots through traffic and on net consistently. He has great awareness in all three zones and displays smart decision making on each shift, staying very responsible. Going into the 2022-2023 season, Thompson should make a jump into the AHL and be an effective asset, especially on the power play. - DK
3 - Nick Perbix D
A sixth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning at the 2017 NHL draft, Perbix has taken the long road to pro hockey. He spent the year after he was drafted in the USHL before beginning a four-year collegiate career at St. Cloud State, a career that would end with him graduating and signing an entry-level contract with the Lightning. Impressively, Perbix stepped into the AHL and looked the part almost immediately. Despite having spent most of his season in college, Perbix ended up playing a major role for the Crunch as they solidified their place in the AHL playoffs. Head coach Benoit Groulx trusted Perbix to play top-four minutes, significant power play time, and even time on the penalty kill, an indication of just how pro-ready Perbix was right after he left college. Now 24 years old and entering his first full professional season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the six-foot-four Perbix exit training camp having beaten out teammates Darren Raddysh and Sean Day as the Lighting’s eighth defenseman on their depth chart. Perbix isn’t a finished product, but he knows what he’s good at and knows when he needs to not be noticed. Despite his impressive size, Perbix may not have a future handling the toughest defensive minutes. Instead, he could thrive in a role as a depth defenseman who offers value in transition, pace-pushing play, and doesn’t look out of place in his own zone. - EH
4 - Maxim Groshev RW
Maxim Groshev is a mobile, hard-working forward with solid finishing ability, yet his upside looks rather limited, and the best-case projection would be a bottom-six NHL winger, so he is a prospect of note without being intriguing. Even so, he is the type of player who is really valuable for the postseason and thus a good fit for the Lightning organization. Last season was disappointing for Groshev, as he failed to earn a regular role with his KHL team and only got the ice time he needs to develop after he was demoted to play in the VHL. On the other hand, he is still only 20 years old, and he did look legit at the VHL level, so the year wasn’t too disappointing. As of this writing, he has been producing very well in the KHL preseason, and there are still more than enough reasons to remain positive about his future. We absolutely expect Groshev to break through with a fulltime KHL role this year. It should also be mentioned that this is the last year of his current KHL contract and with the way things are going, there is a solid possibility that both the Lightning and Groshev will agree that the best way to further his development might be playing for the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL with the hopes using that opportunity to springboard an NHL career. - VF
5 - Jack Finley C
A massive pivot, and the son of former NHL defender Jeff Finley, Jack was a second-round selection of Tampa in 2020. Finley can flat out dominate down low and when working the cycle with how difficult he is to separate from the puck. Below the goal line is his office and he works feverishly to prolong possession and to tire out opposing defenders. He has good, but not great hands, however, he does have good vision when working below the goal line to spot open teammates. Finley is also an intelligent two-way player who uses his size and reach effectively in the defensive zone to be disruptive. The key for him moving forward is to continue to improve his quickness and overall skating ability. It did improve some as a WHL player, but not to the point where it needs to be for him to be a quality pro. Additionally, there has to be some concern that Finley never hit the point per game mark as a WHL player over four seasons (even if he basically lost one due to the pandemic). His offensive upside might be fairly limited moving forward as a pro, with the best-case scenario being that Finley develops into an Adam Lowry type of player for the Lightning in the future. - BO
6 - Hugo Alnefelt G
After the 20-21 season – which saw Tampa Bay’s 2019 3rd rounder lose the starting job on a club facing relegation out of SHL – put a damper on his prospect status, Alnefelt’s 21-22 AHL season once again left much to be desired. His record wasn’t necessarily anything to worry about, but his GAA and save percentage both fell short. In addition, he gained plenty of competition from Tampa’s Russian 2020 6th rounder, Amir Miftakhov, for the back-up spot to veteran Max Lagacé, who was clearly AHL Syracuse’s go-to goaltender. The lack of playing time for the 6’3” hulk saw him get several (ultimately winless) outings with Orlando of the ECHL, putting up even worse GAA and save percentage statistics. Several years ago, Alnefelt’s star was quite bright, and it was felt that he was close to being the organization’s top prospect. That has since changed drastically and although he is still regarded as a solid goaltending prospect who will simply need playing time, the organization added Nick Malik this past summer, a 20-year-old who is internationally experienced and excelled for KooKoo of the Finnish Liiga last season. With ideal size, Alnefelt is scheduled to be the full-time back-up, or 1B, for Syracuse this winter as Miftakhov has signed on with Kazan, so there is a chance for redemption. With Andrei Vasilevsky still considered among perhaps the top three goaltenders on the planet and ageless veteran Brian Elliot still trucking along in the back-up role, Alnefelt continues to have plenty of time to live up to the organization’s hopes. – CL
7 - Declan Carlile D
The Lightning have traded many picks and prospects in recent years as part of their chase of Stanley Cup rings, a chase that has been highly successful thus far. The result of these trades has been the Lightning need to use other avenues to add prospects to their system, and one way they’ve added some young talent has been through college free agency. An undrafted player, Carlile signed with the lightning last spring after finishing his season with Hockey East’s Merrimack College. At Merrimack, Carlile was a top-of-the-lineup defenseman who matched defensive prowess with offensive competence. Now with AHL Syracuse, Carlile’s game will likely be a bit more one-dimensional. Carlile is a six-foot-two defenseman who is at his best in his own zone. He’ll do anything to keep a puck from ending up at the back of his net, and he can at times be a ferocious physical presence. Carlile saw time on the Crunch’s penalty kill in his limited action last season and should have an expanded role there this coming year. Carlile’s defensive game is his calling card, and it should be good enough to allow him to be a trusted defensive defenseman for the Crunch next season. If he can find a way to squeeze some production out of his limited offensive toolbox, maybe he can become something more. Otherwise, his defensive game should be good enough to help him hold down an AHL job and maybe get some NHL games as a safe call-up option for the Lightning. - EH
8 - Gabriel Fortier C
Is Gabriel Fortier the next in a line of smaller, but impactful homegrown talents for the Lightning? Signs might be pointing to yes. Not only did Fortier earn a ten game callup last season in his first full pro year, but he proved to be an extremely impactful role player at the AHL level with Syracuse too. Tampa is always looking at ways to lower their cap number and that means banking on young players to step forward in checking line roles. Fortier’s game is tailored to do that. He is an animal on the forecheck, wreaking havoc with his speed and his tenaciousness. Fortier never seems to quit on a play and is already a competent two-way player who can handle penalty killing duties. How much offensive potential does Fortier have? He is not likely to be more than a quality third line player. There are some skill limitations at work here. The majority of his offensive chances are created through speed, hustle, and sound instincts. However, he should be able to carve out a nice career in that role. It would not be surprising to see him breaking camp with the Lightning this coming season and quickly earning the trust of Jon Cooper and his staff. At the very least, he should split the year between the NHL and AHL. - BO
9 - Gage Goncalves C
A late bloomer out of the Everett Silvertips program, there is a lot of hope internally that Goncalves can develop into the Lightning’s next lockdown third liner. His first pro season in Syracuse was a success as he finished fourth in goal scoring on the Crunch, while receiving significant powerplay time. The reason why the Crunch featured him on the man advantage so consistently has to do with his booming one timer and ability to control the half wall. However, he is more than just a pure shooter. He is a competitor at both ends and he has great instincts as a defensive player. As he becomes stronger, he should also become a physical standout in the defensive end who can be used in that aforementioned shutdown role. At this point, he looks like a more natural fit on the wing, but there is a chance they could shift him back to center for the upcoming year. He is versatile. This coming season Goncalves will return to the Crunch and the Lightning will be looking for him to take a step forward at both ends as a pro. If he does, he could position himself as a possible injury call up with an eye on a full-time role in 2023-24. - BO
10 - Cole Koepke LW
Already 24 years old, the Lightning have been very patient with Koepke’s development. He spent three years at the University of Minnesota-Duluth before finally turning pro last year. The goal scoring power winger turned in an impressive rookie AHL season, too. His 20 goals were good for third on the Crunch and he proved that his goal scoring ability from the collegiate level could translate well to the pro level. Armed with a heavy shot and a willingness to use his size physically, Koepke is a potential middle six, complementary goal scorer in the NHL. The key will be improving his speed and quickness. Although it should also be stated that Jon Cooper and the Lightning have found ways to use competitive forwards with footspeed issues, so long as they have other talents. Tampa Bay does not have a strong farm system at the moment, so Koepke will, undoubtedly be given a chance to be an NHL player at some point. Given his advanced age, that could occur as early as this season at some point. Otherwise, he can position himself with a chance the following year, so long as he continues to progress at the AHL level. - BO
11 - Simon Ryfors
There was definitely an adjustment period for Ryfors after signing last offseason from the SHL. He struggled to adapt to the AHL initially but was much better in the second half. Ryfors plays a high energy game and is strong away from the puck. Can he show more offensively in his second AHL season?
12 - Niko Huuhtanen
After a terrific WHL season with Everett, Huuhtanen has returned to Finland this year. The big ice will be great for him to continue to improve his quickness and overall skating ability. The big power forward owns a booming shot.
13 - Lucas Edmonds
Edmonds is a great success story from the OHL this past season. The late bloomer left Sweden and joined Kingston as an overager, becoming one of the league’s best and most consistent offensive players. His hands and offensive IQ are top notch, but he will need to continue to get quicker to transfer his production to the pro level.
14 - Roman Schmidt
The big defender has intriguing potential as an NHL blueliner. He is physical. His mobility is improving. He has a big point shot. He will return to Kitchener this year of the OHL and will look to become one of the league’s top two-way defenders.
15 - Daniil Pylenkov
The steady two-way defender is not flashy, but he is efficient at moving the puck and sound defensively. He has established himself as a KHL regular the last two years and could cross the pond in the near future if he shows continued growth.
16 - Nick Malik
Malik has slowly emerged as a quality goaltending prospect after finding ways to better harness his athleticism. He was one of Liiga’s top netminders last year and has firmly put a disastrous initial draft season behind him.
17 - Ilya Usau
The Lightning signed Usau as a free agent this offseason after a strong showing for Dinamo in the KHL and for Belarus internationally. The sturdy pivot is tough to separate from the puck and he is an adept passer. He’ll suit up in the AHL this season.
18 - Max Crozier
The talented powerplay quarterback is a mobile blueliner who is entering his senior season at Providence. The Lightning will be looking for him to take a step forward to become an elite NCAA, two-way blueliner this season.
19 - Dylan Duke
A skilled pivot and former U.S. NTDP’er, Duke was solid for Michigan in his freshman year. His upside remains high, but he will need to continue to focus his development on improving his quickness and strength on the puck.
20 - Eamon Powell
Thus far at the NCAA level, Powell’s development has been underwhelming and unspectacular. His feet are good, but he still hasn’t found the confidence to be a truly impactful two-way defender. Powell will return to Boston College for his junior season.
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Of course, I didn’t make the 15 hour-plus round-trip to watch Sidney Crosby do a bag skate. Instead, I made the journey to watch the opening of the 2018-19 USHL season. The league, which stretches from Youngstown, Ohio in the East to Kearney, Nebraska in the west, had all gathered in the Pittsburgh suburb to play a series of games, such that each club in the circuit would play two regular season contests between Thursday and Sunday.
I only arrived on Friday evening, but was able to watch seven and a half games, seeing at least one full game from 12 of the 17 teams in the league. 12 of 18 if you consider the USNTDP U17 and USNTDP U18 squads as different teams, which the league standings do not. Besides, the U17s weren’t there.
When I do the math and note that I drove around two hours per game, the investment was pretty good. Factor in the ability to purchase two hard drinks after the games for a grand total of $8 (US), and let’s just say I’d do it again.
The only downsides to the weekend were an arena announcer who struggled, mightily in some cases, to pronounce player names, and sightlines that were not ideal, with netting that extends to the ceiling throughout the side of the ice on which there were stands.
While these were regular season games, as is the case with any league, a team’s first few games of any campaign are bound to be on the sloppy side. Players are still getting accustomed to their line mates. Not everyone can ramp out their focus and intensity level at the same pace. Also, while the Youngstown Phantoms were pretty close to home, around 50 minutes’ drive west of Cranberry Township up the I-76, none of the teams were playing home games.
In an event like this, where all games are regular season games, and there is no tournament feel, there are no winners and losers, although Team USA, Muskegon, Des Moines and Tri-City each won both of their games, while Youngstown, Madison, and Omaha returned home without any points in the standings.
Instead, in a scout-heavy affair, a large number of undrafted players, mostly those entering their first year of eligibility but also a few second and third timers, put out notice that they all deserve to be watched very closely by NHL scouts and people like me over the next six months or so. For a few lesser prospects, the event helped more than a few receive offers for NCAA scholarships.
For the sake of transparency, I will start the season preview portion of this article with a few words about the teams that I have not yet watched more than half a game of hockey.
The defending champion Fargo Force split the weekend, with a win and a loss. Four of their top five scorers from last season have moved on to college, but there are some players of note who have begun to audition for the 2019 draft. Michael Mancinelli, was a smaller, skilled forward who impressed me in viewings last year. A few others who have gained some notice include Swiss-American defender Cedric Fiedler, and forwards Kyle Bettens, Aaron Huglen, and Josh Nodler. The latter spent some time last year with the U17 team, but will spend this year with the Force. He also drew the most positive feedback when I discussed the team with others who were able to see them.
The Des Moines Buccaneers scored 15 goals in their 2 games, including 10 in a game that I saw a portion of against Chicago. Both of the team’s goalies have been drafted by NHL clubs and Roman Durny (Anaheim) was impressive, although Jake Kucharski (Carolina) was not. There are also a pair of affiliated players on the blueline with Michael Kesselring (Edmonton) and Arvid Henrikson (Montreal) both getting their first tastes of the league. Both are physically imposing players who move well for their size. Their most impressive player was probably 18 year old TJ Walsh, who will always be small, but is moving better than he did in previous viewings. Draft eligible to watch include blueliner Kirby Proctor, who showed good vision, and forwards Brady Meyer and Kaden Bohlsen. All three have plus size.
The Madison Capitals lack drafted players, first time draft eligible of note, and points in the standings. When I asked around, the only player who was even mentioned was defender Christian Berger, whose three older bothers all play, or have played, at the NCAA level.
The Central Illinois Flying Aces have a drafted goaltender in Mitchell Gibson (Washington) who had a rough first game at this level. After a few years as an also-ran, they look like a team worth watching this year. Winger Trevor Janicke played with the USNTDP last year, but as a late 2000 birthdate, he has aged out of the program without yet being eligible for the draft. Lynden Breen is another forward of note with the Aces. Brehdan Engum (how is this guy not playing in the WHL?) is in his second year of draft eligibility, but turned some heads after spending most of his draft season playing Minnesota high school hockey.
The Chicago Steel always draft well and while defender Casey Staum was once drafted by Montreal, the fact that he has yet to start a collegiate career means that his draft rights have expired. The team has a few sons-of and brothers-of on the roster, including draft-eligible forward Jake Schmaltz, brother of Nick and Jordan, and Matthew Barnaby, son of…also Matthew Barnaby. They also have a really interesting 2021 draft eligible in Owen Power, a preternaturally large defenseman who has game. But when scouts go to see the Steel this year, they will be going to watch Robert Mastrosimone, who is small, but plays with some snarl and thinks the game a step or two ahead of most of his peers. He may be the top prospect in the league who is not in the USNTDP.
The Cedar Rapids RoughRiders seem to have emerged from a few rough years in the wilderness, and their current roster is led by Winnipeg draft pick Nathan Smith. You may have noted that we were not very high on Smith in our draft previews and reviews last year. He has promising puck skills, but I am still not convinced that his feet work well enough, which may not be surprising considering he is still somewhat new to ice hockey, having grown up as a roller hockey player. He is also penalty prone. Of note for the 2019 draft, defender William Francis needs to work on his pivots, but has a big point shot. I am more interested in winger Grant Silianoff, who has patience with the puck and is very comfortable playing in the dirty areas despite his small frame. He could be a big point producer for the Rough Riders.
Moving on to the Lincoln Stars, we have a team with more than a little bit of NHL representation with Chicago picks Josiah Slavin and Wouter Peeters, as well as Carolina pick Ville Rasanen patrolling the blueline. Slavin is a hard working winger who has quick hands but still has to answer questions about his skill level. Peeters has a big frame in the crease, covers his posts well, but made a few questionable decisions. More regular time in net will surely help define his future prospects. Rasanen is tall and thin and never produced much in the Finnish junior ranks. He is still a bit of a wild card. The team also has some draft eligible players of note in defenders Declan Carlile and Jordan Power and forwards Josh Lopina and Shane Pinto. Lopina showed me a promising energy game, replete with strength and size and a shot with potential. Power impressed me most from this roster. He is a very good skater, enabling him to prowl with confidence. He also has a decent defensive game, standing up opponents who try to enter his zone on his side of the ice. This is a plyer I want to see more of.
Anaheim pick Jackson Perbix is the most skilled player on the Green Bay Gamblers roster. A very good skater who shows 200-foot commitment and has some skill, he is worth a follow. Looking to the future, there are a pair of late 2000s on the blueline in Christopher Giroday and Ethan Frisch. Both played with an offensive bent before joining the USHL, while the latter showed a gritty side that will serve him well as he attempts to move up the ranks. There is another smaller, skilled forward to note in Nicholas Zabaneh, himself a USHL rookie. He is the type of player who adds enough away from the puck, that he is still worth rostering even on his off days. For a sleeper, I will keep an eye on netminder Evan Fear, a 1999 to be sure, but he was among the top netminders in the NAHL last year and looked very sharp in the game I saw of him.
The Dubuque Fighting Saints have an older, more experienced roster. There are a few players who have a couple of years of NCAA experience under their respective belts already but are taking a year to refresh, including Toronto draft pick JD Greenway. Jordan’s younger brother has great size and strength, can skate and has really good puck skills for a blueliner. His decision making is questionable. Also patrolling the Dubuque blueline is Rangers pick Simon Kjellberg. For as raw as Greenway is, Kjellberg makes him look refined. The American-born Swede is big and skates reasonable well, but lacks puck skills and can be ineffective in his own zone. As his North American career has only just begun, I am willing to withhold judgement for the moment. Netminder Matthew Thiessen (Vancouver) is also moving his development forward after being drafted last year out of the MJHL. He looked much better in his second game than in his first. He keeps his glove up, has decent athleticism and absolutely loves playing the puck up the ice. There is one first year eligible of note in winger Matias Maccelli. Although very small, he has nice hands, can create plays for his teammates, and has good edges. In short, a fun player to watch. One last player to follow this year on the Fighting Saints is second year eligible blueliner Jacob Semik. A smooth skater and puck mover, he plays a fearless yet quiet game, is a trusted penalty killer and can play in all situations. What he lacks in flash, he makes up for in smarts. I suspect that over the length of the season, this here is the team to beat.
The Sioux Falls Stampede have a few interesting draft eligible players to pay attention to this year. Defenseman Ryan Johnson is trying to follow in the footsteps of fellow Southern California product Jack St. Ivany, who went from the USHL to the NHL draft. Big, versatile forward Andre Lee started hot after being overlooked in his first draft eligible season as a Swedish junior. Rangy blueliner Anthony Follmer is a St. Louis area product who impressed with his reads and decision making. Winger Anthony Romano is one to watch closely as he has a great deal of skill, offensive instincts and skating as well as a decent amount of physicality. That said, the most impressive player on the Stampede for my money was Finnish import Jami Krannila. The Sioux Falls offense runs through him as his puck skills are high end. He lacks size and needs to get stronger but his game will take him places.
The Waterloo Black Hawks are always a contending team in the USHL. Netminder Jared Moe was drafted by Winnipeg last year and had an up and down weekend, showing good movements at his best, and a lack of focus at his worst. Czech winger Matej Blumel was better in international play than league play last year, and was thus passed over in the draft. If he brings more of the offense to the USHL, he could get back on the radar this time. Among first time eligibles, big Texan winger Ryan Drkulec is an effective 200-ft player. Center Austen Swankler has enough speed to be dangerous if the rest of his game catches up. Their most intriguing prospect looks like Russian forward Vladislav Firstov, who has a nice blend of offensive tools and needs only to gain strength to be a real impact player.
The Omaha Lancers had a rough weekend and they similarly lack any drafted prospects or high end 2001 borns. A few second or third year eligible will have to suffice. Winger Tyler Carpenter may be ready to take a step forward. He plays a two-way game, with patience and poise on the puck. Defender Travis Mitchell is big and mean and uses his stick well to break up opposing rushes. Finally, netminder Vinnie Purpura plays a composed goal. He skates well for a goalie and is not afraid to come way out to play a puck. He single-handedly kept his team in one of their games and is expected to play the bulk of the games this year for the Lancers before going to Boston University.
The Sioux City Musketeers have a pipeline for talented Finnish forwards. Two years ago, it was Eeli Tolvanen drawing the scouts. Last season, the man was Sampo Ranto. This year, his name is Marcus Kallionkieli. An opportunistic winger with size and strength, he has a good first few steps and pair of plus shots to his name. His name is a mouthful, but at some point soon we will need to learn to pronounce it. Undersized winger Bobby Brink received some attention last year from the national program thanks to his plus skating and work rate, but needs to show better puck control skills. Tommy Pasanen is a gigantic defender from Germany. He plays with a huge stick and is a beast in the corners but his play with the puck can be rough. His mobility is very impressive for his size and he can pass well enough despite hard hands. Finally, Flames pick Martin Pospisil has a very good shot if he can stay on the right side of the rulebook. It is a fine line between being heavy on the forecheck and heavy in the penalty box.
The Muskegon Lunberjacks, recently the proving grounds for one Andrei Svechnikov, have another 16 year Russian wunderkind to enjoy this year in Daniil Gushchin. He is incredibly talented, but who knows where he will be playing in his draft year. Although he did not play on the weekend, netminder Keegan Karki is one more year removed from the troubles that saw him leave the USNTDP and seemingly prevented him from being drafted last year. If he keeps his nose clean, he has a number of fans among USHL scouts. Hunter Skinner is a big-bodied stay-at-home blueliner who has never scored at any level. If he can show a modicum of ability to contribute to the offensive game, he might have a chance. As far as the 2019 draft goes, Gushchin’s countrymate Egor Afanasyev is the player to watch. He played a smaller role last year, but showcased some very impressive puck skills on the weekend, scoring four times, including one beauty off a spinorama.
After close to two seasons at Penn State, Buffalo draft pick Brett Murray needed a reset and returned to the USHL with the Youngtown Phantoms. He is a very big boy, with a decent first few steps, but subpar top speed. He should be an impact player at this level and once he returns to the collegiate game, but needs better wheels to have professional impact. Winger Jack Malone plays a solid two-way game, but has yet to show the dynamic skills that would cause an NHL team to sit up and take notice. The player I expect to see take a step forward is right winger Trevor Kuntar. He is skilled with the puck, able to create room for himself to shoot and has a quick release on a hard snap shot.

Finally, we come to the USNTDP. I will not mention every 2019 eligible player on the roster, but suffice it to say that the majority of them will be in scouting crosshairs all season. Everyone knows of Jack Hughes. He has eyes in the back of his head and sticking out from his ears as well. He is a supremely talented playmaker and can dominate shifts on his own. He doesn’t shy away from the physical stuff either. He is the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall next June. I will leave the comparisons with other recent top picks for later in the season. Another first round talent on this squad is Matthew Boldy. A big winger with a big, big shot, he is in the mold of recent USNTDP graduates Kieffer Bellows and Oliver Wahlstrom. He can be more of factor in getting the puck back, but he is deadly in the offensive zone. Competing with Hughes in the fun quotient is tiny winger Cole Caufield. Think Alex DeBrincat with this one. He has amazing offensive instincts, speed and acceleration. Someone will overlook his size deficiencies and take him in the first round. Blueliner Cam York played with the U18s last year and the maturity in his puck moving game is apparent. His puck skills are also high end for a blueliner. Alex Vlasic has ideal size at 6-6”, and a good boomer from the point to boot. His skating is fine at his size as well. He needs to improve his overall decision making, but the tools are there. Spencer Knight is the early favorite to be the first netminder selected next summer. He is composed, does not overcommit and responds impressively to broken plays. He is comfortable playing the puck and keeps second chances to a minimum. Marshall Warren really opened my eyes before being removed from competition with a suspected concussion. He has excellent puck control, plays with great poise, and is superb at defending his line from entry attempts. The last player from this veritable All Star squad I want to call out is tiny blueliner Domenick Fensore. Despite looking up to Cole Caufield, he is exceptionally dynamic from the back end. He is exciting with the puck, waiting out the Omaha defense in the second game to score the winner with 10 seconds remaining. He can even play a physical game, raising his arms into a hit to blow the opponent up. Players his size – especially defenders – are few and far between. Scouts will be asking themselves all year if the size of his skillset is big enough to overlook the size of his skates.
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