Dustin Byfuglien – McKeen's Hockey

Central Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 30 Sep 2018 13:05:12 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks

Corey Crawford

The single biggest question surrounding the Chicago Blackhawks throughout the summer was what the future held for Corey Crawford. His last game in 2017-18 was on Dec. 23 and the specifics of his injury were never made clear during that campaign. What little news we did get about Crawford over the summer did have an optimistic tone to it, but once training camp actually started, everyone seemed to get a little more cautious.

It was confirmed that the injury Crawford has been dealing with all this time is a concussion. He isn’t quite ready to return from it yet either and at this point it would be surprising to see him play in the season opener. The news isn’t grim though. He hasn’t taken part in a full team practice yet, but Crawford has been on the ice in full gear, taking shots. Hopefully he’ll continue to trend in the right direction.

In the meantime, Cam Ward will fill the void. He’s not an ideal starter, but he certainly has a lot of experience in that role, so he’ll provide the Blackhawks with a better Plan B than they had last season. That statement isn’t meant to be too harsh on last season’s Plan B, Anton Forsberg, though. Forsberg didn’t exactly shine when thrust into a bigger role in 2017-18, but he also came into that campaign with just nine career NHL starts under his belt. If Crawford is healthy, then Forsberg will head to the AHL, but until then he’ll get another chance with the Blackhawks as Ward’s understudy.

Outside of the goaltending situation, there isn’t a ton of roster uncertainty regarding the Blackhawks, but they do need to make a decision on Dylan Sikura. He’s been battling for a final spot and was given a golden opportunity to play with Artem Anisimov and Nick Schmaltz and on the top power-play unit Thursday. Sikura got knocked down to the fourth line before the game ended though, which probably isn’t a good sign. John Hayden replaced Sikura alongside Anisimov and Schmaltz and looked good. Just as an aside, when the season starts, Patrick Kane is expected to play with Anisimov and Schmaltz, but he was a healthy scratch on Thursday so that the bubble players could get more of a chance.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have made one of their tougher cuts when they decided to send defenseman Ryan Graves to the AHL. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar liked what he saw out of Graves, but there just isn’t room for him on the blueline right now. Bednar did specifically mention that Graves put himself in the mix to be a call up at some point, so we might see him again in 2018-19 in the event of an injury.

Another player that Bednar has liked in training camp is Logan O'Connor, who is still in the running to earn the Avalanche’s final roster spot. O'Connor would be making the leap straight from the University of Denver after scoring seven goals and 21 points in 41 games last season. He was never drafted, but the Avalanche inked him to an entry-level contract back in July and GM Joe Sakic praised his “leadership, energy, and speed” at the time.

Easily the biggest story with Colorado though is its goaltending. Semyon Varlamov was the Avalanche’s number one goaltender last season and was solid in that role, but the Avalanche acquired Philipp Grubauer, who is ready to be a number one after years of being the Capitals’ overqualified backup. In the long run, the job will probably go to Grubauer given that Varlamov is entering the final season of his contract, but who is the Avalanche’s number one right now?

The Avalanche would argue that they are both the number one goaltender, but at some point, one of them is likely to actually take that position. We don’t know who the opening game starter will be yet, but even that probably won’t be too telling as whoever warms the bench for Game 1 will probably start in Game 2. We’ve might have to wait weeks or even longer to see which one differentiates himself from the other or if Bednar demonstrates a clear preference.

Dallas Stars

Tyler Seguin had been dealing with a minor injury that kept him out of preseason contests from Sept. 18 until his return on Friday. There was never a lot of drama surrounding that situation because it never seemed like he was in serious jeopardy of missing the season opener, but given how important he is to the Stars, it was nice to get further confirmation of his availability going forward by seeing him get into that exhibition contest.

Unfortunately, Dallas still might not be entering the season at 100%. Defenseman Stephen Johns didn’t participate in Friday’s practice and has been frequently absent due to an undisclosed injury. With each practice Johns misses, it becomes increasingly likely that his recovery will end up bleeding into the regular season.

In the meantime, Gavin Bayreuther has been given a long look with Friday’s contest being his fifth preseason game of 2018. Bayreuther is coming off an encouraging campaign in the AHL where he scored seven goals and 32 points in 71 contests. However, Bayreuther’s offensive talents might not be enough as Stars coach Jim Montgomery has noted that they need him to be more of a defender. Still, if Johns isn’t available at the start of the season, perhaps Bayreuther will get an extended opportunity. Joel Hanley is also an option and he’s certainly the veteran alternative with 22 NHL games 259 AHL contests under his belt.

Minnesota Wild

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 25: Minnesota Wild Defenceman Ryan Suter (20) skates with the puck during a NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and San Jose Sharks on February 25, 2018 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. The Wild defeated the Sharks 3-2 in overtime.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

The Minnesota Wild dealt with more than its fair share of injuries last season, but perhaps this season they’ll be a little luckier. It certainly was a good sign that Ryan Suter, whose season ended prematurely due to a fractured ankle, not only made his preseason debut on Wednesday, but logged a healthy 21:22 minutes. He reported afterwards that he felt fine, so barring a last minute surprise he should be in the lineup for the season opener.

As a whole, the Wild appear to be basically healthy going into the season, but there are a couple minor exceptions. Luke Kunin hasn’t been cleared for contact yet, but he hopes to get the OK soon. Even when he’s healthy though, he’s expected to report to AHL Iowa. Gustav Olofsson is dealing with a shoulder injury sustained on Sept. 17, but he has at least resumed skating.

With the team largely healthy, there aren’t many roster battles to speak of. Perhaps the one of most consequence is the fight for the backup gig between Alex Stalock and Andrew Hammond, but it would be a little surprising at this point if Hammond ended up getting the gig over Stalock.

One player that probably would have made the team regardless, but has nevertheless had an encouraging training camp is Joel Eriksson Ek. Charlie Coyle has noticed that Eriksson Ek is a lot more confident now that he’s going into his sophomore season and the two should end up playing on a line together. If you’re looking for a player that could take a step up this season with Minnesota, Eriksson Ek is someone to keep in mind.

Nashville Predators

Eeli Tolvanen was someone that was cited over the summer as a potential 2018-19 Calder Trophy contender, but that was contingent on him being able to land a meaningful role on the Predators, which would be a tall order given their depth. Ultimately he fell short of that goal and the Predators decided to send him to AHL Milwaukee rather than have him stick around and play on the fourth line. Given that Tolvanen is just 19-years-old and needs to adjust to North American hockey after spending 2017-18 primarily in the KHL, the decision to have him start in the minors where he can get big minutes makes a lot of sense for his development.

There’s a wrinkle though: Tolvanen has a clause in his contract that would allow him to return to the KHL if he plays at least 10 games in the AHL. Will he exercise it? That remains to be seen. Certainly the Predators hope he doesn’t, not just because he would be out of their control for the duration of his KHL stint, but also because it would be counterproductive to their goal of having him adapt to the smaller ice.

Outside of the resolved (at least for now) question about Tolvanen, there weren’t many question marks for Nashville going into training camp, which is to be expected of a team that went 53-18-11 and saw minimal turnover during the summer.

We’re waiting on word regarding the fate of Austin Watson. He was given a 27-game suspension by the NHL after pleading no contest to misdemeanor domestic assault. He appealed to that suspension to a neutral arbitrator on Wednesday and it might be a couple weeks before a decision is handed down.

St. Louis Blues

23 MAY 2016: St. Louis Blues center Robby Fabbri (15) takes a shot and scores against the San Jose Sharks during game 5 of the Western Conference Final of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. (Photo by Jimmy Simmons/Icon Sportswire)

No matter what team you root for, you have to want only good things for Robby Fabbri. The 22-year-old showed such promise, but injuries have kept him from playing since Feb. 4. He was healthy coming into training camp with his sights set on resuming his career, but then he left a preseason game on Sept. 23 with a grade 1 groin strain. The good news is that he has already started to skate again and hopefully he’ll have much better luck on the injury front going forward.

Outside of Fabbri, the Blues are relatively healthy as we round the corner towards the regular season. Alexander Steen and Vince Dunn have been dealing with upper-body injuries, but they recently resumed practicing with the Blues, so they might be fine for the opener.

St. Louis did have an eventful summer though, so you might be wondering what the top lines look like now. That’s always going to be subject to change of course, but Friday’s preseason game seems like a good gauge in that regard. The top line was Patrick Maroon, Ryan O'Reilly, and Vladimir Tarasenko, the second line was Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, and Jordan Kyrou (probably filling in for Steen, who didn’t play), and the third line was David Perron, Tyler Bozak, and Sammy Blais (who might be replaced by Fabbri if he’s healthy). Again, take that with a grain of salt, but there you go.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets were one of those teams coming off an amazing season that justifiably had little in the way of openings going into training camp. That’s not to say that they had nothing to settle during the preseason. The Jets and Tobias Enstrom parted ways over the summer, so Dustin Byfuglien needed a new partner.

Winnipeg toyed with putting Tyler Myers in that spot, but that would have involved Myers shifting to the left side and that experiment wasn’t encouraging during the preseason. Given that, Byfuglien is likely to be paired with Joe Morrow instead. This will be Morrow’s first full season with Winnipeg after being acquired from Montreal on Feb. 26, but did get some ice time with Byfuglien in 2017-18, so this won’t be an entirely new job for him.

One other story of note is Patrik Laine dropping 14 pounds over the summer. That’s unusual to hear given that most young players need to bulk up, but Laine’s a big guy and the hope here is that he’ll be faster now. He hasn’t ended up scoring in the preseason, but there was evidence of his increased speed, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the season. As it was, he was one of the league’s top snipers, so if this change can give him a little something extra, then we might be in for a pretty special season out of him.

Express Laine – Winnipeg Jets 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:22:27 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Winnipeg Jets entered the 2017-18 season as a team that looked dangerous offensively with a promising young group of forwards that featured Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers, but there was a lot of uncertainty about how they would fare at their own end of the ice.

A breakout performance from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in 2017-18 elevated the Winnipeg Jets from being an interesting team with upside to a serious contender. He finished second in Vezina Trophy voting with a 2.36 GAA and .924 save percentage in 67 games. Meanwhile, the Jets had one of the league’s top offenses, led by a 91-point campaign by Blake Wheeler and a 44-goal showing out of Laine. Winnipeg had a 52-20-10 record in the regular season and made it to the Western Conference Final before the Vegas Golden Knights eliminated the Jets in five games.

TAKE TWO – Given that the Jets are a largely young group that took a major step forward last season, the summer was unsurprisingly dedicated to maintenance rather than additions.

Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck, coming off a one-year, $2.25 million contract, was rewarded for his breakout performance with a six-year, $37 million extension. The Jets are taking a risk there given that Hellebuyck only has 149 total NHL games on his resume and his first two campaigns were a mixed bag, but he’s also just 25-years-old and that contract will look very good if Hellebuyck manages to stay at anything close to the level he showed in 2017-18.

Wheeler received the other big payday. He signed a five-year, $41.25 million contract that starts with the 2019-20 campaign. Wheeler is arguably one of the more overlooked stars in the league given that he ranks fifth in points over the past three campaigns with 243 in 245 games. Only Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nikita Kucherov have outperformed Wheeler in terms of points over that span.

With those two locked up, the Jets now have six forwards (Wheeler, Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, and Adam Lowry), two defensemen (Dustin Byfuglien and Tucker Poolman) and their starting goaltender (Hellebuyck) all locked up through at least 2021-22. It’s a luxury to have that much of their core locked up, but the flipside is that the Jets have committed $47.25 million in cap space to nine players over each of the next three seasons and those nine don’t even include some of their potentially most expensive players.

WILL THERE BE A TAKE THREE? – Given that the Jets are still a relatively young team it seems odd to look at 2018-19 as a do-or-die season for them, but the reality of the salary cap does present that question, at least to some extent. It’s unlikely that the Jets will be a bad team in 2019-20, but could 2018-19 be their peak? That’s not an unreasonable question.

After all, this is the last season that Laine will be tethered to an entry-level contract. He already has 80 goals and 134 points in 155 games and when you look at the contracts that other star players got immediately following their ELC in recent years like Connor McDavid (eight-years, $100 million), Jack Eichel (eight-years, $80 million), and Leon Draisaitl (eight-years, $68 million), you can quickly get a sense that Laine’s payday will be massive.

This will also be the final season of Kyle Connor’s entry-level contract. He’s not going to get a contract close to Laine’s, but Connor had 31 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2017-18, so he won’t be cheap either. Then there’s the question of defenseman Jacob Trouba, who has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries already, but is also one of the pillars of their blueline when healthy. He’s on a one-year, $5.5 million contract for 2018-19 and will be a restricted free agent after that.

Even if the Jets manage to keep all of those players without exceeding the cap, they will have to make sacrifices elsewhere. One of the first could be Tyler Myers, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019 and already looks like something of a longshot to re-sign given the Jets’ other priorities.

OUTLOOK – A big factor for the 2018-19 Jets will naturally be Hellebuyck. If he proves that 2017-18 was a sign of what he can do for years to come, then Winnipeg will be one of the league’s most dangerous teams this season. Even without him playing like an elite goaltender, the Jets will still be able to generate a ton of wins through offense alone, but another standout season from Hellebuyck is likely what it would take for the Jets to enjoy another long playoff run.

FRIEDMAN’S FOUR QUESTIONS (SPECIAL PASSOVER EDITION)

Daniel Friedman — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 18:43:52 +0000

FRIEDMAN'S FOUR QUESTIONS (SPECIAL PASSOVER EDITION)

This Friday will be different from all other Fridays, because in honor of Passover (which starts tonight), I'll be asking four questions instead of listing five thoughts as I normally do.

Yes, I came up with that joke all by myself and, yes, I'll be here all week. Anyways, here we go:

1. Can the Winnipeg Jets make the playoffs without Dustin Byfuglien?

As TSN 1290's Rick Ralph pointed out to me, the Jets were actually 6-3 without "Big Buff" in the lineup during the month of March. That has to bring a sense of comfort and optimism. That said, the intensity gets ratcheted up as we get closer and closer to the playoffs, and therefore, being without your top dog on defense becomes more and more difficult to play through.

Also working against them is the fact that Los Angeles seems to have woken up, and I don't see the Kings forfeiting a playoff spot to Winnipeg. They've also got a firm hold on the ROW tiebreaker, should it come down to that.

So, to summarize: No -- I don't think they can, but I also don't think they could even if Byfuglien hadn't been suspended.

2. Can the Islanders regain second place in the Metro and a home ice advantage in the first round?

Boy, have things gone south for the Isles lately. They've fallen from atop the division to third place, and as things currently stand, they'd play Washington in the first round. That could all change in a heartbeat, but in any event, it's going to be difficult for New York to hold onto that second spot (if they get it back), given the way the subpar brand of hockey they're playing.

There's no chance they're missing the playoffs, but home ice? I just don't see it, barring a significant attitude and performance shift.

3. Are we giving enough credit to Senators' players not named Andrew Hammond?

No, we are not. Hammond's been a phenomenal story, but nobody's really talking about the major contributions coming from two of Ottawa's younger forwards -- Mark Stone (11 points in his last ten games) and J.G. Pageau.

Mike Hoffman's been garnering attention, as have Mika Zibanejad and Curtis Lazar, but as a whole, this forward group has several unheralded guys. Even Alex Chiasson has had his moments.

I think that's something you definitely want to build off of, even if the Sens don't end up making the playoffs this year.

4. Is Columbus the real deal or is this just a mirage?

They're the real deal, and not just because they've won eight games in a row. This is a team that was decimated by injuries all year long and, now that they're healthy, are back on track. Don't forget, they almost knocked Pittsburgh out of the first round last season.

Needless to say, the Metropolitan Division is going to be even more interesting in 2015-16.

Fantasy Hockey: Getting to know a new stat this summer – Point Shares

Darren Kennedy — Sun, 15 Jun 2014 15:51:21 +0000

The internet has done a lot of things. Chiefly among them we now have unlimited access to puppy videos – which is, of course, amazing. Additionally, we can review, in a matter of seconds, endless amounts of sports data as far back as we’d like. This is great in that the socialization of information should make everyone smarter, however, it makes gaining an advantage in your pool all the more difficult.

If everyone has access to the same set of statistics how do you dig deeper and find new insights?

One way is to look at old data through a new lens. A great example of this is point shares. Point shares is the percentage of on ice goals that a particular player recorded a point on. For example, if Jake Gardiner was on the ice for 10 Toronto goals and had four points, his point share would be 40 percent. Simple, right?

I only came across this new age stat a year or so ago, but since then it has been one of my core data points when conducting evaluations. Although I suppose it really isn’t that “new”, since it’s just taking a long-time stat (points) and cutting it differently.

Like all stats it doesn’t tell you a whole lot in a vacuum. In order to fully utilize it from a fantasy perspective you need to look at various on ice situations. For example – power plays.

Let’s take the Winnipeg Jets and Evander Kane as a case study (You’ll notice that I talk a lot about Kane in blog posts. I recently traded for him in dynasty league and am secretly trying to boost his value through an endless stream of positive propaganda…. Muhahaha). In 2013-14 he skated around 135 minutes on the man advantage. His points share during that time for all Jets’ goals scored was 40 percent. To put that in perspective, he was eighth on the team. First place was Blake Wheeler, who amazingly had a points share of 81 percent.

Is Kane simply a bad power play guy? This stat doesn’t tell us for sure, but it raises a number of interesting questions. How is Kane being utilized on the man advantage? Is he touching the puck in opportune places? Is he a poor playmaker? Does the coach manufacture set pieces to get him shots? And the list goes on.

It seems unlikely that players such as Wheeler and Byfuglien (a point share of 77.8 percent) are twice as good at moving the puck into scoring positions as Kane. My suspicion is that the coaching staff is setting up their group to use guys like Wheeler, Little, and Byfuglien as primary puck carriers. As a result, when the puck is eventually shot on net they are either the guys shooting or one of the last two players to touch the puck. I’d love to hear from a Winnipeg fan who is reading this and was able to watch more Jets’ games than me this year (I only caught five or six) to get your opinion.

When applying this stat to other NHL teams and ultimately your fantasy squad it’s helpful to compare to past years. I did this for Winnipeg and was amazed to see that Bryan Little, who had a points share of 60 percent in 2013-14, only posted 33.3 percent in 2012-13. Did he suddenly become twice as productive on the power play? Or, more likely, is there a degree of variability inherent in these numbers.

You can imagine that the difference a 20 or 30 percent swing could have on your power play totals. Taking a player from perhaps seven or eight points in a season to 16 or 17. Relating this back to Kane, it could be what prevents him from taking the proverbial next step above 60 points in a healthy year.

Take some time to play around with these numbers over at www.extraskater.com and see what you can find. If there are anomalies for certain players it could help you predict breakouts (and paper tigers) in years to come.

Make sure to check out our Mckeen’s Facebook page here.

Darren Kennedy is a contributor for Mckeen’s and Dobber. You can follow him on twitter at @fantasyhockeydk

To Be The Man, You Have To Be The Man

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 00:19:00 +0000

Finding the next breakout fantasy hockey defenseman can be a challenging and daunting task, but if you are successful at it, it can be highly rewarding.

It is always fun to pump your chest a little when your peers “say nobody would have thought Brian Campbell would bounce back the way he did in Florida”. That is when you say with a wink and a smile, “I did, that’s why I drafted him in the twelfth round”

If you want to know one way to appear as the fantasy hockey oracle to you fellow fantasy hockey chums, keep this theory in mind when exploring future trade and draft strategies.

To be the man, they have to be the man.

So what exactly does that mean? Good question. Allow me to elaborate. Time and time again I have seen highly skilled and ranked defenseman in the NHL struggle to achieve their fullest potential because they are surrounded by other highly skilled players.

At first thought, this may seem idiotic. How can playing with great or even good players hurt your production? It is all about ice time, and the right to be the man. To anchor the blueline, run the powerplay, and be the go to guy for the coaching staff and have the trust and respect of your teammates.

There are several resounding examples of this throughout hockey history, but you need not look any further back than the last five years for several examples. I can quickly think of four examples of defenseman whose career either was rediscovered, or exploded after they found a new team and made their mark as the undisputed number one defenseman on their new team.

Photo Copyright: Saed Hindash/The Star-Ledger

Brian Campbell had been a star offensive defenseman for the Buffalo Sabres until he was traded to the San Jose Sharks at the trade deadline in 2008. That was his career year in which he scored 62 points in 83 games. That season he was the undisputed number one defenseman in Buffalo, but was set to be an unrestricted free agent. The following year he signed a mega contract with the Chicago Blackhawks and had to share his ice time with Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook. As a result, his stats steadily declined from 52 points in 08/09, to 38 points in 09/10, and finally as low as 27 points in 10/11 until he was traded at the draft in 2011 to the Florida Panthers. The following season he assumed the mantle in Florida as the number one defenseman once again and rebounded with an impressive 53 points at a 0.59 PPG pace. This season he has continued that momentum in the short season and is on pace for 0.6 PPG

Dustin Byfuglien is a questionable example because he played both forward and defense while in Chicago, but in his final season with the Hawks he scored 34 points at an average of 0.41 PPG with an average of 16:25 minutes of ice time. His first two seasons in Winnipeg as the teams number one defenseman he scored 53 points with his career year in 11/12 when he scored 0.8 PPG in an average of 23:18 minutes of ice time.

Jack Johnson was drafted by Carolina, but was traded to the LA Kings before he established himself as a top NHL defender. While in LA he was over shadowed by Drew Doughty, but still managed to have a career year in 10/11 with 42 points in 82 games for 0.42PPG. In the 11/12 season he was traded to the bottom dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets. Many of my fellow fantasy GM’s assumed his offense would probably decline and that his +/- would nose dive. I acquired him for less than face value and was not surprised when the exact opposite occurred. That season in 61 games with the Kings he scored at a 0.39 PPG pace and had a minus -12. In the final 21 games in Columbus he produced 0.67 PPG and was a plus -5. This season he is scoring at a 0.43 PPG pace and is well established as the leader of the Columbus defense.

The most recent example is Ryan Suter, now with the Minnesota Wild. Suter had a career year in Nashville playing in the shadow of Shea Weber when he scored 46 points for a 0.46 PPG average. In 38 games as the Wild number one defender, Suter has 29 points and is scoring at a 0.79 PPG pace.

While this formula is not absolute by any means, it can be used to give you an opportunity to acquire a defenseman at a buy low opportunity before the rest of the market catches up.

If you look around the NHL, there are not too many situations where teams have two number one defensemen and have even one of said defenders producing elite or even high level fantasy value.

To provide your team with such elite level fantasy production you want to find defensemen who are the undisputed anchor and go-to guy on the roster for their team. The quarterback of the power play, first unit penalty kill, minute munching, stat stuffing monsters. Such players who are already established are not cheap, so be on the lookout for the next one. Remember, to be the man, you have to be the man.

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