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#1 After scoring 49 points (30 G, 19 A) in 37 games for Boston College as a sophomore last season, Ryan Leonard was signed and joined the Capitals late in the season but managed just one goal in nine regular-season games before contributing one assist in eight playoff contests. Nevertheless, the eighth pick in the 2023 Draft was considered a possible Calder Trophy candidate entering the season. He opened the season with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 37 shots on goal while averaging 13:54 of ice time in 19 games, which was not going to keep him in the Calder Trophy race. He has picked up the pace more recently, however, tallying 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing 15:20 per game in his past nine games. He is getting first unit power play time, which certainly raises his offensive ceiling.
#2 When Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog returned to action during last season’s playoffs, it was a feel-good story since it was his first NHL action since 2022, but it was also fair to wonder how much he could contribute this season as he is now 33 and coming back from a serious injury. He started this season slowly, with zero goals, four assists, and 22 shots on goal through 16 games. He has found his footing since then, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 26 shots on goal in his past 11 games. He is skating with Brock Nelson and Ross Colton on Colorado’s second line and is getting top power play time, so Landeskog may be a good bet to produce at a high level for the rest of the season.
#3 As the Nashville Predators look for reasons to be optimistic, right winger Luke Evangelista is starting to become a factor offensively. In his past six games, Evangelista has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and a dozen shots on goal while averaging 17:39 of ice time per game. He had a career-high 39 points (16 G, 23 A) in 2023-2024, but with 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 26 games this season, he’s on pace to soar past that total. Evangelista is skating on Nashville’s top line, with veterans Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos.
#4 After scoring 63 points (26 G, 37 A) in 80 games and finishing fourth in Calder Trophy voting last season, Philadelphia Flyers winger Matvei Michkov entered his second season with lofty expectations. It didn’t start out very well, as head coach Rick Tocchet acknowledged Michkov’s poor physical conditioning early in the season when he had just three points (1 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first nine games. The tide may be turning for him, though, as Michkov has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games.
#5 A big free agent addition in the offseason for the New York Rangers, defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov is not necessarily known as a big point producer, with 33 points in 2021-2022, when he played for Columbus, counting as his career high, but he has been cooking lately. In his past seven games, Gavrikov has seven points (4 G, 3 A), seven shots on goal, and is averaging 25:35 of ice time per game. With Adam Fox injured, the Blueshirts will need Gavrikov to fill a big role at the top of their defensive depth chart.
#6 Buffalo Sabres winger Josh Doan put up 19 points (7 G, 12 A) with 88 shots on goal in 51 games as a rookie for Utah last season but has taken on a more substantial role with the Sabres in 2025-2026. In his past seven games, Doan has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal and while, like many Sabres wingers, he moves around the lineup, he is getting time on PP1. Six of Doan’s 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 27 games this season have come via the man advantage.
#7 In his prime, Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn was a fantasy hockey star, producing points and hits like few others. He’s now 36 and plays a supporting role in Dallas, but he’s been awfully effective even with limited ice time. Benn suffered a collapsed lung in the preseason, so he was not ready to play at the start of this season, but in nine games, he has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 11 shots on goal while playing just 12:50 per game. That ice time is starting to tick up – 15:40 per game in the past three – and with Tyler Seguin out with a torn ACL, there may be a greater need for Benn to fill a role in Dallas’ top six, at least until Matt Duchene is healthy.
#8 With the Nashville Predators showing signs of life, maybe centre Ryan O’Reilly won’t hear his name in trade rumours quite so often. The 34-year-old pivot is a valuable player and one that contenders seek out, but he has been doing his part to help the Preds. In his past five games, O’Reilly has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and six shots on goal. That shot rate is obviously too low, but O‘Reilly is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch.
#9 Centre Elias Lindholm may not be exactly what the Boston Bruins hoped he would be when they signed him as a free agent in the summer of 2024, but he has also picked up seven assists in his past four games, giving him 16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 19 games this season. It’s not all gold for Lindholm right now, though, as he’s rocking a 44.0 percent Corsi percentage and, for a player with a strong two-way reputation, that’s not good enough.
#10 A solid secondary scoring option for the Toronto Maple Leafs, left winger Bobby McMann has delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) with seven shots on goal in his past three games. McMann scored 20 goal and 34 points last season and, with eight goals and 14 points in 27 games this season, he’s on pace for more. He does move around the lineup and there is a ceiling on his offensive production because he doesn’t always have a reliable power play role.
#11 Former Maple Leafs prospect Alex Steeves is starting to make his mark for the Boston Bruins. Steeves, a 25-year-old rookie, started the season in the AHL with has earned chance with the Bruins and is making the most of it. In his past five games, Steeves has six points (5 G, 1 A) with 10 shots on goal while averaging 15:36 of ice time per game. With David Pastrnak injured, Steeves is skating on Boston’s top line with Lindholm and Morgan Geekie and getting second unit power play time.
#12 Florida Panthers left winger A.J. Greer contributed 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 81 games last season, skating on the Panthers’ fourth line. He also had a career-high 130 penalty minutes, which fit with his style of play. While his style has not changed, injuries in Florida have provided Greer with more opportunities and he is starting to take advantage of them. In his past five games, Greer has averaged 15:47 of ice time per game while producing five points (2 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal. He has been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe and is showing that he may be able to legitimately fit in the top nine.
#13 Toronto Maple Leafs veteran Max Domi had a miserable start to this season, with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 36 shots on goal in his first 23 games. He has, however, picked up five assists in the past three games and is skating at right wing on the top line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. So long as he’s in that spot, there is a chance for Domi to salvage this campaign.
#14 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has turned into an offensive force on the blueline since injuries thrust him into a big role, including as the quarterback on PP1. In his past 10 games, Raddysh has averaged more than 24 minutes per game, putting up 15 points (2 G, 13 A) with 25 shots on goal. Not bad for a guy who couldn’t count on a regular spot in the lineup before injuries decimated the Tampa Bay blueline.
#15 Vancouver Canucks superstar defenceman Quinn Hughes has slumped recently, with a modest two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past six games, a stretch in which the Canucks have managed just one win. Hughes had 13 assists in the previous six games, so there is some regression in real time happening here, and there is no reason to move Hughes unless there is a long-term reason that his production should stay down. As of now, it’s probably wise to stay invested in one of four defencemen in the league scoring at least a point per game. (Cale Makar, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Zach Werenski are the others.)
#16 Having won back-to-back Vezina Trophies as the league’s top goaltender, an injury to Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck is naturally a big deal. Even if his numbers aren’t quite as strong this season, it’s not like a .913 save percentage in 14 starts was a problem for the Jets, but now Hellebuyck is out for four-to-six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. That leaves journeyman Eric Comrie to fill the starter’s role in Hellebuyck’s absence, and Comrie has a .897 save percentage in 11 starts.
#17 The Anaheim Ducks are in a tough goaltending spot, as Lukas Dostal is out with an upper-body injury for two-to-three weeks, and Petr Mrazek is facing a similar timeline with a lower-body injury, leaving Ville Husso as the de facto starter for the Ducks. Husso has appeared in four games this season, posting a .859 save percentage, which is obviously not good enough, but he does have a .901 save percentage for his career, so there is some reason to hope that he can be an adequate option for the next few weeks.
#18 Veteran New York Islanders right winger Kyle Palmieri suffered a torn ACL, ending his season. On the play that it occurred, Palmieri even managed to get an assist, stealing the puck from Flyers defenceman Emil Andrae on his way to the bench, giving it to Jonathan Drouin, who set up Emil Heineman for a goal. Palmieri finished his season with 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 25 games and with Palmieri out, rookie Max Shabanov moves up to the Islanders’ top line. Shabanov has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 24 shots on goal through his first 16 NHL games.
#19 Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster will be out for two to three months with an upper-body injury, halting his rising momentum. In his last seven games before he was injured, Foerster scored six goals and had 15 shots on goal. His absence does create more room in the Flyers’ top six for winger Owen Tippett, who is heating up with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 10 games.
#20 St. Louis Blues rookie right winger Jimmy Snuggerud is going to be re-evaluated in six weeks after suffering a broken wrist. Prior to injury, he had been slumping, managing zero points and nine shots on goal in his last seven games. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, a third-round pick in 2022, has been called up to the Blues and is getting a shot in their top nine after he managed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 16 AHL games.
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To say things went sideways last season is putting it lightly. The Bruins went from having 109 points and finishing second in the Atlantic Division in 2023-2024 to dead last in the Eastern Conference and 76 points in 2024-2025. They fired coach Jim Montgomery only to see him join the St. Louis Blues and rally them to the playoffs while interim Joe Sacco couldn’t help pull the Bruins out of the hole they dug themselves. That led to seeing general manager Don Sweeney pull the plug and trade captain Brad Marchand to Florida and defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto at the trade deadline. While David Pastrnak continued to be brilliant and Morgan Geekie had a big season, No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman struggled all year after he missed training camp while he awaited a new contract. Injuries to defencemen Charlie McAvoy (50 games played) and Hampus Lindholm (17 games played) for a bulk of the season made matters that much worse and if they could burn the tape of the whole year, they would. Unfortunately, they’ll have to take a long look in the mirror to figure out if this is something they can turn around or if a rebuild of some kind is needed.
What’s Changed?
Marco Sturm is back in Boston and this time he’ll be behind the bench as a first-time NHL head coach. He replaces Sacco who had the unfortunate task of trying to turn things around midway through last season. Sturm comes over from the Ontario Reign in the AHL where he led them to the playoffs in each of his three seasons. Previously to that, he was an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Kings under Todd McLellan. On top of the new coach, the Bruins expect to have McAvoy and Lindholm back on the blue line. Free agency was quiet, however. They brought back forward Sean Kuraly and added forwards Michael Eyissmont and Tanner Jeannot and defenceman Jordan Harris. Adding Viktor Arvidsson via trade from Edmonton gives them a guy with a history of scoring on the wing. Being near the cap ceiling has its downsides and having to budget signings was a big part of that for Boston. Fans that wanted big roster additions were dealt a hard dose of reality.
What Would Success Look Like?
The bar is set differently for Boston and getting back to the playoffs is a priority given they have one of the league’s elite scorers in his prime in Pastrnak (43 goals and 107 points last season). A return to form from Swayman and healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm will have the Bruins back in a place where they can be more back to normal for them. If Geekie can replicate what he did last season when he scored 33 goals while getting stronger seasons from Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, they can be right back in the hunt for the playoffs. The Bruins don’t lack talent; they lack depth and depth of talent which means injuries and slumps are their worst enemies. It also puts enormous pressure on Sweeney to shore things up.
What Could Go Wrong?
If Swayman’s erratic performance last season was less a factor of not having a training camp and more about his play coming back to Earth, that would be a worse-case scenario. What helped make Boston so good in previous years was being able to split time with two goalies who could stay fresh and pick each other up. When Swayman struggled, Joonas Korpisalo couldn’t always pick up the slack as the backup. Should Geekie be unable to replicate his offensive output and McAvoy and Lindholm struggle coming back from injury, the Bruins’ season will be a slog for them to keep up while the rest of the Atlantic Division throw haymakers at each other to get to the playoffs. It’s the NHL’s toughest division and any kind of slip up can end a season prematurely.
Top Breakout Candidate
The biggest factor in becoming a breakout player is the opportunity to do it and that’s what Marat Khusnutdinov will have. The Bruins acquired the forward from Minnesota in March for Justin Brazeau and at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, he’s got the size and skills to get in and out of trouble with ease. In 91 career games he’s got six goals and 10 assists, but if he can take advantage of the opportunity he’ll have in Boston to get ice time, the 2020 second-round pick will have the opportunity to take a big step forward with his game.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 45 | 58 | 103 | 1.26 |
In the past four seasons, Pastrnak has scored 191 goals, putting him third in the NHL, behind only Auston Matthews (202) and Leon Draisaitl (200). Pastrnak has reached that total with a solid foundation – he leads the NHL with 1,420 shots on goal over that period of time. As the Bruins move through what appears to be a period of transition, Pastrnak is clearly the most talented player on the team and, as he showed last season, he can produce at an elite level no matter what the situation is with his supporting cast. So, even as the Bruins faded from playoff contention, in his last 38 games, Pastrnak put up an astonishing 64 points (26 G, 38 A), pushing him past 40 goals and 100 points for the third consecutive season. He was runner-up for the Hart Trophy in 2022-2023, when he scored 61 goals, but it might take a little while for the Bruins to bounce back into a suitably competitive level that will get him those kinds of accolades, but his performance in recent seasons warrants that kind of respect. Having heaped this praise upon him, it would still be helpful if the Bruins could improve the quality of talent around Pastrnak so that he doesn’t have to carry such a heavy load. As it is, Pastrnak has a superb wrist shot and has improved his ability to put the puck on net. He remains one of the few players in the league with a legitimate chance to score 50 goals and 100 points and that should be where expectations sit for him going into the 2025-2026 season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 38 | 27 | 65 | 0.79 |
Following a couple of seasons of steady progress, Geekie erupted last season with career highs of 33 goals and 57 points. Geekie tallied 29 even-strength goals, which was tied for eighth in the NHL. As encouraging as that might be, he also scored on 22 percent of his shots and that will be extremely difficult to duplicate. Nevertheless, Geekie was given the opportunity to play an offensive role and made the most of it, playing mostly with Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. Playing with quality linemates allowed Geekie to be featured as more of a finisher and he did an excellent job finding open ice and being ready to fire the puck at a moment’s notice. Geekie also uses his 6-foot-3 frame effectively around the net, shielding the puck from defenders and creating just enough room to knock in rebounds or finish off passing plays when he is in-tight. The question now is whether this is indeed the level to which Geekie should be expected to produce, and the answer probably lies in whether he is going to keep playing with Pastrnak. Since last season brought unprecedented production, Geekie is a somewhat risky proposition going into 2025-2026. He is likely to skate on Boston’s first line, but it’s not like he has the track record to believe that he must be in that spot all season, so enthusiasm should be tempered at least a little. As such, 25 goals and 45-50 points is a fair expectation.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 21 | 37 | 58 | 0.71 |
The Brujns probably held out hope that they would get more offence from Lindholm, who managed 47 points in his first season in Boston, scoring just three goals in his first 32 games. He needed nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his last seven games to even reach that relatively modest point total. In his best years with the Calgary Flames, Lindholm was a premier two-way center who could contribute offensively, recording a career-high 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 2021-2022, while also providing responsible defensive play and he finished as the Selke Trophy runner-up in that 2021-2022 season. What has happened since, however, is a more watered-down version of that player. Lindholm can contribute offensively, but not as much, and his defensive play is solid-to-strong rather than outstanding. If Lindholm is holding down a second-line center spot, he would be a quality option but, on this Bruins team, they could certainly use more from him – the first-line center job is there for the taking! Last season, Lindholm’s most common linemates were Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Charlie Coyle, two of whom are no longer in Boston, so there is an opportunity for Lindholm to move between Geekie and Pastrnak on the top line, but it’s hardly a guarantee. With that uncertainty, Lindholm could be expected to score 20 goals and 50 points but, if he somehow manages to spend a whole season alongside Pastrnak, then those numbers could get significantly better.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 16 | 32 | 48 | 0.60 |
In three seasons with the Bruins, Zacha has been a steady contributor, though last season’s 14 goals counted as his lowest total since 2019-2020. He earned that, unfortunately, with a declining shot rate. His all-situation shot rate of 5.1 shots on goal per 60 minutes was his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017 and it’s difficult to generate offense consistently with so few shots on goal. Over the course of those three seasons, the Bruins have controlled 48.9 percent of shot attempts and 49.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Zacha on the ice, yet the Bruins have earned 58.4 percent of the goal share, so he is riding some favorable percentages in that respect. Zacha does offer versatility in that he can play both center and wing and move up and down the lineup as needed. That his most common linemates last season were Pastrnak and Geekie reflects just how desperate the Bruins are down the middle of the ice and if he ends up as the first line center, it might be good for Zacha, but it’s probably less than ideal for the Bruins. A fair expectation, based on what he has done in three seasons with the Bruins, is for Zacha to score 15-20 goals and 50 points.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 0.61 |
After being a highly touted prospect, drafted eighth overall in 2017, Mittelstadt took quite a while to make his mark with the Buffalo Sabres but he did record a career-high 59 points (15 G, 44 A) in 2022-2023 and had 47 points (13 G, 34 A) in 62 games the following season before getting traded to Colorado. Since then, Mittelstadt has managed 50 points (19 G, 31 A) in 99 games with the Avalanche and Bruins. He has the hands and offensive instincts to tease teams, but it has been a challenge for him to generate consistent offense. To be fair, upon arriving in Boston last season, his most common linemates were Vinny Lettieri and Cole Koepke, so maybe that was not the ideal situation to maximize his scoring contributions, but it would seem worthwhile for the Bruins to put more focus on that objective in 2025-2026. Mittelstadt tends to be passive on the ice and has not done enough in his career to earn even the level of trust that players like Lindholm and Zacha experience, so Mittelstadt is going to have to battle for his role as a center in Boston. He does, however, have some upside because of his puck skills so 15 goals and 45-50 points is not an unreasonable expectation for the 2025-2026 season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 75 | 18 | 24 | 42 | 0.56 |
Coming off of an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Arvidsson looked like a good buy-low option for the Edmonton Oilers, figuring that his tenacity and scoring ability would be a good fit in their middle six, but it was not the right fit and he finished with 27 points (15 G, 12 A) in 60 games, his lowest points per game production since his rookie season in 2015-2016. He also played just under 15 minutes per game, which was also his lowest since his rookie season, and his on-ice shooting percentage was a meagre 6.4 percent, so it was not a season that was built for Arvidsson to have success. He is a five-time 20-goal scorer and has twice exceeded 30 goals in a season, so he has offensive credentials and the Bruins ought to be motivated to give Arvidsson the ice time to show what he can do. Arvidsson is the only established forward on the Bruins who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025-2026 season, so if the Bruins are not in playoff contention, he would be a prime trade candidate but would also bring more in trade if he has a productive season. When he is on his game, Arvidsson is a high energy winger who excels on the forecheck and is not shy about launching shots towards the net, with varying degrees of accuracy. He is a consistent play driver and that is reason enough to like his chances to bounce back in Boston. Even allowing that Arvidsson may miss some time with injuries, because that has been his trend lately, he should still have a shot at 15-20 goals and 40 points as a complementary offensive contributor in Boston.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 28 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0.43 |
A second-round pick in 2023, Poitras has played 33 NHL games in each of the past two seasons, producing a total of 26 points (6 G, 20 A) in 66 games. He did have 41 points (17 G, 24 A) in 40 AHL games last season, which is very encouraging production for his 20-year-old season. Poitras is a young and developing player and his offensive game has not yet broken through in the NHL, but his defensive play has been quite strong in this relatively small sample size. As a result, his Corsi and expected goals percentage both ranked second on the Bruins, so if his AHL production can translate to the next level, then he could turn into a valuable player for the Bruins as they move into a new era. The main area of concern for Poitras is that he has yet to establish his status as a bona fide NHL player, so while there is a world in which he secures a regular spot in the Bruins’ top nine, and that would make sense, there is also the possibility that he ends up on the roster bubble. If he does spend the full season in the NHL, 35 points is a fair expectation for Poitras in 2025-2026.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 0.27 |
One of the more controversial free agent signings this summer, Jeannot received a five-year, $17 million contract from the Bruins, a significant commitment for a player who has struggled on his way to 20 goals and 45 points – total – across the past three seasons. It’s a far cry from his rookie season, in 2021-2022, when he put up 41 points (24 G, 17 A) and for the money they are investing, the Bruins have to hope that there is a path to Jeannot recapturing that scoring touch. He can have an impact on the game beyond scoring, as he tends to play a reliable defensive game, is one of the strongest players in the league, and can be an imposing physical presence. Across the past four seasons, he has recorded 1,030 hits and 401 penalty minutes, ranking sixth in both categories. The Bruins would probably like Jeannot to offer some version of what they used to have with Milan Lucic, a physically intimidating presence who could also put the puck in the net. Maybe there is a way for Jeannot to provide that but, based on the past three seasons, double-digit goals and anything more than 20 points would have to be considered a relative victory.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.31 |
A late bloomer who didn’t reach the NHL as a regular until he was 26, Eyssimont is a lunch bucket type of player who shows up, works hard, and isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty. Although he managed a modest 16 points (9 G, 7 A) last season, split between Tampa Bay and Seattle, Eyssimont was an effective player who helped drive play in the right direction. His teams controlled 52.4 percent of shot attempts and 54.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Eyssimont on the ice, making him very effective relative to his role on the lower end of the depth chart. Despite not being especially big, listed at 6-feet-0, 191 pounds, Eyssimont has recorded more than 100 hits in three straight seasons and he’s not afraid to drop the gloves if the situation warrants it, too. He is also an exceptional shot generator. Among the 424 forwards to play at least 300 minutes of five-on-five play last season, Eyssimont ranked second (behind Brady Tkachuk) with 10.55 shots on goal per 60 minutes. The unfortunate part for Eyssimont is that he is a low percentage finisher, with a career shooting percentage of 6.0 percent, and that limits his overall effectiveness. Given his ability to generate chances, if Eyssimont could just score on 10 percent of his shots it would surely secure him a bigger role. It’s fair to expect 20-25 points from Eyssimont, which is not a lot, but his hits and penalty minutes could make him more relevant for those in banger leagues.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 70 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 0.50 |
A standout blueliner, McAvoy delivers consistently excellent defensive play and was doing so last season, as expected, when he was injured at the Four Nations Face-Off and ended up missing the rest of the season when his shoulder injury got infected. Without McAvoy and after dealing some veterans prior to the trade deadline, the Bruins went 6-15-4 in their last 25 games. The Bruins outscored opponents 34-30 during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice, extending his streak to eight consecutive seasons of the Bruins outscoring opponents with him on the ice. Through those eight seasons, the Bruins have outscored opponents by 138 goals during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice. He is a punishing hitter whose physical play is a cornerstone of his all-around effectiveness even while facing top opponents on a nightly basis. While McAvoy is a solid puck-handler and strong passer, he does not have a consistent impact on the power play. Among the 55 defencemen who played at least 50 five-on-four minutes last season, McAvoy ranked 54th with 1.49 points per 60 minutes (ahead of only Brent Burns). Mason Lohrei started to get more power play time for Boston as a result, even before McAvoy suffered his season-ending injury. If McAvoy has some role on the power play, he should be able to get back over 40 points, a threshold that he had crossed in three straight seasons prior to 2024-2025.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 75 | 5 | 23 | 28 | 0.37 |
An excellent two-way defenceman who has been underrated for much of his career, Lindholm was limited to just 17 games last season due to a knee injury suffered in November. He was very effective in the games that he did play, with the Bruins outshooting and outscoring opponents with him on the ice. A strong skater with a 6-foot-4 frame, Lindholm can be an elite shutdown defender when healthy. In three seasons with the Bruins, he has benefitted from strong goaltending but has also been on the ice for 1.72 goals against per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Among defencemen to play at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across those three seasons, the only defencemen with lower rates of goals against were Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller and Dylan Samberg, all of whom spent at least one season with the Winnipeg Jets, playing in front of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. In any case, if the Bruins get healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm, they will have a much better chance to be competitive in 2025-2026. Lindholm could produce more than 30 points, but he has the potential to have a much greater all-around impact than his point total might suggest.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 0.29 |
A towering presence on the Boston blueline, Zadorov led the NHL with 145 penalty minutes last season and recorded more than 200 hits for the first time since 2018-2019. He averaged a career-high 20:37 of ice time per game and given his relative effectiveness, the Bruins would prefer that he not be tasked with the enforcer role. He can still be that intimidating hard hitter on the blueline, but with Jeannot joining the Bruins, that gives the team another option when it comes time to drop the gloves. Zadorov tends to have limited contributions with the puck, but it’s not like he is completely hopeless. He scored 14 goals for Calgary during the 2022-2023 season and had eight points in 13 playoff games for Vancouver in 2023-2024. That is not the level at which he can be expected to sustain production, but those contributions showed that this huge defender could still contribute offensively. He has recorded at least 20 points in four consecutive seasons, so that is the baseline of expectations heading into 2025-2026, and there is not much likelihood that he will stray too far from that output. For fantasy managers, the hits and penalty minute totals make Zadorov relatively appealing in banger leagues.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 0.37 |
A second-round pick in 2020, Lohrei is a 6-foot-5 blueliner who emerged as an offensive contributor in his second NHL season. He started to get a bigger role on the power play and 16 of his 33 points were scored with the man advantage. While that power play production was encouraging, last season also showed that Lohrei had some trouble handling a bigger role on the Boston blueline, particularly with Lindholm and McAvoy missing so much time with injuries. There were 138 defencemen to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes in 2024-2025 and Lohrei ranked 137th with 3.48 goals against per 60 minutes, ahead of only Chicago’s Alex Vlasic (3.55). While Lohrei’s defensive game could certainly improve, he did have some bad luck contributing to those numbers, as his on-ice save percentage was .881, which was the third lowest among those defenders. It was not goaltender Jeremy Swayman’s finest season, and it had an impact on Lohrei’s defensive results. Looking ahead to 2025-2026, Lohrei should have a more manageable role on the Boston blueline, where he can fill a supporting role as well as getting regular power play time. He should be expected to produce at least 30 points and if he tightens up his defensive game, then Lohrei will go a long way towards securing his place on the Bruins’ depth chart.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 51 | 20 | 23 | 6 | 3 | .902 | 3.12 |
Fans could almost feel the moment that the Boston Bruins decided that they were going to strip down and start over last season, and - unfortunately - that included more than just roster moves. Just one season after coming in seventh in Vezina voting, starter Jeremy Swayman picked up a new, uglier league-leading stat last year when he earned the distinction as the goaltender who allowed the most pucks past him over the regular season campaign. His 176 goals allowed were nearly double the average he typically allows in a single season - and while he played in around fifteen more games than is optimal for his best performance, that workload-volume increase certainly didn't account for all of his abysmally poor performance. He was one of the NHL's worst goaltenders in 2024-25, forced to shoulder a harder workload with a weaker tandem partner in Joonas Korpisalo while the skating roster in front of him was slowly but surely shipped out ahead of the trade deadline.
Boston still has a few key core pieces left in their lineup, and Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and David Pastrnak are all still at points in their career where the team could choose to retool and redevelop their lineup to push back into Wild Card contention if they wish. And the good news is that Korpisalo, who started off the season looking lost positionally for the Bruins, started to settle in from a technical standpoint as the year wore on - so he might be able to shoulder more minutes to give Swayman a bit of a break. But where there used to be one of the most formidable tandems in the league, things look relatively bleak in Boston - and unless Swayman comes back looking ready for action, this could be a tough year in net.
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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Matvei Michkov is flying high, Boone Jenner returns, Quinton Byfield is creating, Dylan Guenther is sniping, and much more!
#1 Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov went through a midseason slump that likely will prevent him from Calder Trophy consideration. It appears to be a close race between San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini and Montreal Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson. Nevertheless, Michkov is heating up again and has piled up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past five games. Skating on a line with Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett is working for the 20-year-old first year winger.
#2 Shoulder surgery kept Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner on the shelf until last Saturday, but he has hit the ice with authority, recording five assists and eight shots on goal in his first three games. Jenner also has six hits and that has been a consistently valuable factor in his fantasy appeal over the years. He has been skating at left wing with Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson, though Sillinger was injured Thursday at Detroit, so Jenner ended up taking 15 draws against the Red Wings, winning eight.
#3 Los Angeles Kings centre Quinton Byfield has gone nine games without a goal, but he also has 11 assists in his past seven contests. He has averaged 20:30 of ice time in that stretch and the 6-foot-5 pivot is establishing that he is a quality second-line centre, anchoring a line with Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere on his wings. Byfield has had these moments both last season and earlier in this season, too, but the challenge for him is maintaining consistency. He doesn’t need to score 11 points every seven games, though it would be nice, but he also can’t have stretches where he has two points in 12 games, either.
#4 It might seem obvious that Dallas Stars left winger Jason Robertson would score, but he struggled early in the season and had just 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 60 shots on goal in his first 26 games. That tide has turned, however, and in 32 games since, he has delivered 41 points (19 G, 22 A) with 102 shots on goal. Robertson is naturally skating on Dallas’ top line with Roope Hintz and they have rookie Mavrik Bourque on the right wing. It’s obviously a great situation for Bourque, who is riding a six-game point streak, but he also has just three shots on goal in those six games – scoring on all three of them! – so it’s not the most sustainable situation, but worth keeping an eye on.
#5 Utah Hockey Club right winger Dylan Guenther missed a dozen games with a lower-body injury but upon returning to the lineup, he turned sizzling hot. In his past eight games, Guenther has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 33 shots on goal. Averaging more than four shots on goal per game, for a player with a shot like Guenther’s, is a great way to ensure that production will continue. He is skating on a line with Barrett Hayton and Michael Carcone at even strength as well as holding a spot on Utah’s top power play unit.
#6 Since joining the Dallas Stars, veteran forward Mikael Granlund has been reunited with Matt Duchene, with whom he had played previously in Nashville. Playing for a stronger team, Granlund is playing less in Dallas – his ice time down more than three minutes per game – and yet he has recorded six assists in seven games for the Stars. He may be deferring a little too much, though, as Granlund has just nine shots on goal in seven games for Dallas. He has never been a huge shot generator but was averaging 2.42 shots on goal per game with San Jose before the trade.
#7 The Detroit Red Wings are surging up the Eastern Conference standings and part of the reason is that winger Alex DeBrincat is finding the net. DeBrincat scored in Thursday night’s loss to Columbus, extending his point streak to eight games and he has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 27 shots on goal during that streak. DeBrincat has been doing his damage at even strength lately, where he is now skating with J.T. Compher and Patrick Kane, but DeBrincat is also a consistent producer on the power play. He has 46 power play goals in the past four seasons, which is tied with Connor McDavid for 13th.
#8 New York Rangers defenceman Adam Fox has been sidelined by an upper-body injury and that leaves the Blueshirts thin on the blueline, especially because K’Andre Miller left Tuesday’s game against the Islanders with an apparent lower-body injury. Miller may not miss time, but the Rangers are prepared to run a five-forward power play in Fox’s absence, with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, and Alexis Lafreniere on the first unit. If he is healthy, Miller might have some sleeper value because he has just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 52 games this season, but put up 43 points in 2022-2023, with 38 of those points coming at even strength.
#9 His name is popping up in trade rumours, yet St. Louis Blues captain Brayden Schenn is producing at a high level, which is not hurting his value. He is not generating enough shots, but Schenn does have seven points (1 G, 6 A) and eight shots on goal in his past seven games. He has solid wingers with Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou on his flanks and Schenn adds fantasy appeal with his physical play as he has 150 hits in 60 games, which is tied for 26th.
#10 Although he does not have a consistent role on the Columbus power play, Blue Jackets defenceman Ivan Provorov does have six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He was logging huge minutes in the games leading up to the 4 Nations Face-Off break, averaging 28:55 time on ice in the previous four games and while it’s down to the 22-23 minutes per game range since the break, there is value in logging big minutes for a team that tends to play higher scoring games and the Blue Jackets rank third with 2.86 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play.
#11 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot has quietly been having an excellent season and his production is getting noisier. In his past eight games, he has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 31 shots on goal. That shot rate is elite, and with Chabot delivering strong puck possession numbers (54.3 percent Corsi), it’s reasonable to expect that he can continue to generate offense. Maybe not at seven points in eight games pace, but enough to hold fantasy appeal.
#12 Injuries continue to wreak havoc on the Minnesota Wild and now centre Joel Eriksson Ek will be out of the lineup for weeks with a lower-body injury. Virtually by default, Frederick Gaudreau moves into the second-line centre spot and second-unit power play time virtually by default. In his past 11 games, Gaudreau has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal and in his past five games he is averaging 17:32 of ice time per game, so he is getting a chance to contribute more offensively.
#13 A slumping Michael Bunting will be out of the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup for weeks following appendix surgery. Bunting had no goals and two assists, with 20 shots on goal in his last 10 games before he was sidelined. With Bunting out, the Penguins have Anthony Beauvillier and Cody Glass skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wings. Beauvillier has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past seven games, which is more appealing than Glass, who has two assists and 21 shots on goal in his past 12 games.
#14 While the spotlight in Washington naturally shines on Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record, the Capitals are getting quality production from their supporting cast, too. In his past 14 games, for example, Pierre-Luc Dubois has contributed 15 points (7 G, 8 A) with 26 shots on goal. He could still stand to shoot the puck more, but this scoring surge gives him 49 points (14 G, 35 A) in 59 games, a massive improvement on the 40 points that he produced in 82 games for the Kings last season. There has never been a question about his talent, but it is refreshing to see what kind of production follows when he is engaged in the right situation.
#15 Skating on Dubois’ wings, Taylor Raddysh and Connor McMichael have had different paths this season. McMichael burst out of the gate at the start of the season, scoring 12 goals in his first 16 games, but then went through some lean times in the middle of the season. He is heating up again, though, with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past nine games. With Tom Wilson dealing with an illness, Raddysh received more opportunity, and he has five assists in his past six games. The challenge for Raddysh is securing regular playing time because he has played under 13 minutes in 34 of 59 games this season.
#16 Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens has landed in trade rumours quite a bit this season, in part over frustration as the young forward has not produced as much offense as expected. His 68-point season in 2022-2023 seems to have set a bar that is now difficult for him to approach again, as Cozens finished with 47 points (18 G, 29 A) in 79 games last season and now has 30 points (11 G, 19 A) in 57 games this season. More recently, Cozens does have seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past nine games, but it will be interesting to see if the Sabres are moved to include him in any deadline deals.
#17 The Toronto Maple Leafs are getting some contributions from unusual places lately. Nick Robertson was an efficient scorer last season but had done little this season until he contributed four points (3 G, 1 A) in his past two games. Robertson’s emergence helps provide depth scoring, as he skates on a line with Max Domi and Matthew Knies. Pontus Holmberg is another Maple Leafs player providing surprising offense, as he works on the left side with John Tavares and William Nylander. Holmberg has mostly been a depth player in his career, but does have five points (4 G, 1 A) in his past three games. With Max Pacioretty potentially returning to the lineup, there could be some shuffling that makes Holmberg less appealing, but Robertson and Holmberg are at least worth keeping tabs on in the short term.
#18 Second-year New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle can go through some scoring droughts, but he does have three points (2 G, 1 A) in his past four games and that complements his physical game. He is a reliable hitter, ranking fourth in the league with 217 hits, and Cuylle is the only player in the NHL with at least 30 points and 200 hits this season. In banger leagues, that makes him more valuable than his mere scoring numbers would suggest.
#19 With William Karlsson injured, Vegas Golden Knights centre Brett Howden is looking at a better opportunity, centering a line with veterans Brandon Saad and Mark Stone on his wings. Howden has recorded seven assists along with 13 shots on goal during a four-game point streak and while it hinders his Cy Young case – he had 16 goals and 6 assists previously – Howden now has career highs with 16 goals and 29 points in 58 games.
#20 The season looks like it could be getting away from the Boston Bruins and they could be sellers at the trade deadline, but don’t ignore Elias Lindholm. The veteran centre has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past nine games and, in his past four games, has 18 shots on goal while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. He’s centering Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle, and that line might not make it through the deadline, but Lindholm is getting ample opportunity, including first-unit power play time, so he could offer some late-season value.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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I have to give the league credit. I did not go into this season with a lot of confidence or excitement about the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sure, it’s always fun to see best-on-best play, but with the tournament being limited to just four countries and without any pre-existing prestige/history behind the tournament name, I was among those worried that it might end up looking like a series of glorified All-Star games and not attract any non-hockey fans. I couldn’t have been more wrong.
ESPN saw an average viewership of 9.252 million for the Final between Canada and the United States, making it the most-watched non-Olympic hockey game on record in US viewership history. Including Canadians, that rating increased to 16.1 million viewers (6.9 million between Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ and TVA Sports), which was on par for a Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final (16.3 million), per Braylon Breeze of Sports Media Watch.
The Final even took a political angle. I won’t stress people looking for an escape with the details, but the current climate between the United States and Canada was an undercurrent throughout this tournament and in the Final especially, only adding to the enthusiasm for this match.
When all that noise ended, and the puck dropped, the players didn’t disappoint. This was not a glorified All-Star Game. The players took the opportunity to represent their country seriously, and after the United States earned a 3-1 victory over Canada during the round robin, the Canadians got their revenge Thursday in a 3-2 overtime win over the States.
The winning goal was appropriately scored by Connor McDavid, who was left wide open due to a defensive breakdown by the Americans, took advantage of a nice pass from Mitch Marner to fire a wrist shot past Connor Hellebuyck.
Marner getting the primary assist on that marker and Sam Bennett’s game-tying goal at 14:00 of the second period -- the last goal before McDavid found the back of the net -- was a bit of a redemption story for the 27-year-old winger. Marner and McDavid didn’t seem to gel earlier in the tournament, resulting in the duo being separated for Canada’s 5-3 win over Finland on Monday and Marner logging just 12:46 of ice time. Had that been the end of the story, it would have been about Marner vanishing when things got tough, a story that would have added to the frustrations of Maple Leafs fans, who have seen Toronto flounder in the playoffs throughout Marner’s tenure. Instead, he added another chapter to the tale.
It was also a great showing for Jordan Binnington. Goaltending was the main question mark for Canada going into this tournament, and while Binnington certainly had some bad moments, in the end, he did step up for Canada, turning side 31 of 33 shots in the Final.
Of course, Nathan MacKinnon was also deserving of his MVP title. He scored a tournament-best four goals, including the overtime winner against Team Sweden and two markers versus Finland. Without MacKinnon’s efforts, Canada might not have made it to the final match. He also got Canada on the board first against Team USA on Thursday with his marker at 4:48 of the first period.
It needs to be acknowledged how well America played in this tournament. Both games between these two countries were intense, and not much would have had to change for Team USA to have emerged as the winner. In particular, Zach Werenski (six assists), Jake Guentzel (three goals, four points) and the Tkachuk brothers were fantastic in this tournament. Connor Hellebuyck also did his part in the 4 Nations Face-Off, largely proving his status as the league’s best goaltender, even if his team finished just shy of the title.
Canada can celebrate today, but they have every reason to be concerned about Team USA going into the Olympics. What a fun tournament that should be.
Boston will start next week at home, hosting the Maple Leafs on Tuesday and the Islanders on Thursday. The Bruins will then travel to Pittsburgh on Saturday and Minnesota on Sunday.
It seems unbelievable to even suggest it, but those games might be among Brad Marchand’s last in a Bruins jersey. Boston is 27-24-7, which puts the Bruins a point behind the Senators for the final wild-card spot despite having played in one extra game. To be clear, Boston still very much has a chance of making the playoffs, but the fact that it's now a borderline team is cause for retrospection.
There were tempered expectations for the Bruins going into 2023-24 after losing David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron. The squad managed to prove the rumors of their death were exaggerated with a 47-20-15 showing, but that success was led by elite goaltending, something the Bruins haven’t enjoyed this season. Linus Ullmark is gone and -- perhaps due to the pressures of his new contract, missing training camp or some combination of the two -- has underwhelmed with an 18-18-4 record, 2.98 GAA and .898 save percentage. Couple that with free-agent signing Elias Lindholm putting up mild numbers (11 goals, 30 points) as well as Charlie McAvoy (shoulder) getting hurt in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and it’s looking more and more like this isn’t a squad setup for a playoff run even if it does squeak in.
With all that considered, maybe it really is time to move on from Marchand. He’s 36 and in the final campaign of what’s proven to be an extremely team-friendly eight-year, $49 million deal. He is allowed to submit a list of up to eight teams he’d veto a trade from, so he does have some influence over his situation, but the return the Bruins could potentially get from him would still be significant. There are a lot of teams out there who would be happy to take a former Stanley Cup winner with a reputation for getting under opponents' skin. Especially given that Marchand is still performing at a high level offensively with 20 goals and 45 points through 58 appearances in 2024-25. His cap hit ($6.125 million) is also reasonable enough to make it feasible for most contenders to maneuver him below the ceiling, especially if Boston retains part of what’s left of his salary.
There’s a certain logic to trading Marchand while his value is still high and at the end of that contract, but there’s also a strong argument against it. He’s the Bruins captain and a fan favorite. Trading him away, especially after a summer that didn’t go Boston’s way, would likely result in strong pushback against GM Don Sweeney and president Cam Neely, even if the return is significant. It’d be one thing if Marchand wanted to go for the sake of chasing the Cup, but in his own words, his “goal is to play here forever,” per NBC Sports Boston. True, players will usually speak highly of whoever their current employer is, but in the case of Marchand, who has dedicated his entire NHL career to Boston, it seems reasonable to believe him and assume he wants to re-sign with the team.
Plus, even if he is getting up there in age, Boston might still enjoy another serious run with him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jeremy Swayman rebound next season. Hampus Lindholm (lower body) might have better luck on the injury front in 2025-26, which would go a long way towards stabilizing the blue line. The team would still have secondary scoring concerns that would need to be addressed over the summer, but this is far from a franchise that’s without hope in the mid-term.
In the end, I expect Marchand rumors to persist up until the trade deadline but for him to ultimately remain with Boston.
Los Angeles will open the week by hosting Vegas on Monday followed by Vancouver on Wednesday. The Kings will then hit the road with games in Dallas and St. Louis on Friday and Saturday, respectively.
The Kings hold a 30-17-7 record going, which gives them a decent cushion in the battle for a playoff spot, though they’ll have a difficult time catching up to Edmonton (34-19-4) or Vegas (34-17-6), which would be necessary in order to secure home-ice advantage in the first round.
Still, with the trade deadline approaching, the Kings are likely to be buyers if they do anything. They have all their draft picks over the next three years with the exception of their 2025 second-round selection (surrendered in the Tanner Jeannot trade) and a decent amount of cap flexibility (PuckPedia puts the squad’s deadline space at just under $4.5 million), so there is room here to get something done.
Los Angeles is rumored to be targeting Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, according to Russell Morgan of Hockey Royalty. Even if that doesn’t specifically happen, it does suggest that LA is in the market for a top six winger, which would make some sense.
Los Angeles is fine up the middle. Anze Kopitar is still performing well at 37 (13 goals, 46 points). Neither Phillip Danault (five goals, 230 points) and Quinton Byfield (11 goals, 29 points) has done enough offensively to be an ideal second-line center, but either one is serviceable in the middle six. Besides, with the Pierre-Luc Dubois experiment still fresh in the Kings’ mind, Los Angeles might be reluctant to take another swing at filling that role. Instead, the hope is probably for Byfield to grow into that job and push Danault to the third unit.
The defense looks solid now that Drew Doughty is back from his ankle injury. We haven’t seen much from him offensively yet -- just one assist in six appearances with the Kings and one helper in four outings with Canada -- but he’s averaged 26:57 of ice time with Los Angeles since returning, so he’s helped stabilize the blue line.
In goal, Darcy Kuemper has been a pleasant surprise, providing a 17-6-6 record, 2.22 GAA and .918 save percentage in 30 appearances, firmly putting his 2023-24 showing with Washington -- a 13-14-3 record with a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 outings -- behind him. Maybe the Kings will seek an alternate to David Rittich, who has a 12-11-1 record, 2.59 GAA and .890 save percentage in 25 appearances, but that seems unlikely.
That mostly just leaves help on the wings, especially from someone who can find the back of the net. Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are the only Kings players with at least 15 markers -- 25 and 21, respectively -- while 3.7 players per team have hit the 15-goal milestone, so it’s fair to say that’s an area of need for the Kings.
Los Angeles is also an underwhelming 20th in goals per game with 2.83 and has instead relied on its fifth-ranked 2.53 goals allowed per game for its success.
If the Kings do add a top six forward, then Trevor Moore could see his playing time meaningfully diminish. Moore was great in 2023-24 with 31 goals and 57 points in 82 regular-season games, but he’s dropped to eight goals and 23 points in 45 appearances this season, making his average ice time of 17:05 less than ideal. Any addition up front might also push Moore off the power play entirely. As it is, he’s averaging just 1:11 with the man advantage, which has resulted in only one assist for the 29-year-old this season.
The Wild have a full week, starting at home against Detroit on Tuesday before a back-to-back in Utah and Colorado on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The squad will then return to Minnesota to host the Bruins on Sunday.
Minnesota has a strong 34-19-4 record (72 points), but with the Jets’ dominance (39-14-3), finishing first in the Central Division still looks like a longshot. Instead, the Wild are battling with Dallas (37-18-2) and Colorado (33-24-2) for the second and third seeds in the division with the bottom of the three likely entering the playoffs as a wild-card club.
The big question for the Wild is when Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) will be back. When he underwent surgery in late January, we were told that he’d miss a minimum of four weeks, so while a return this week seems unlikely, seeing Kaprizov by mid-March isn’t out of the question. Minnesota deserves credit for managing a 4-2-0 record since Kaprizov was put on the shelf, but that stretch also included back-to-back shutout losses and an underwhelming 2.50 goals per game, so the Wild have shown some vulnerability.
Getting strong performances out of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello during Kaprizov’s absence will be critical. Boldy had a poorly timed five-game scoring drought from Jan. 29-Feb. 6, but he bounced back with two goals and three points in the Wild’s final game before the break and held his own during the 4 Nations Face-Off, supplying a goal and three points in four outings with Team USA, so he might hit the ground running for Minnesota when play resumes.
Rossi has two goals and seven points across his past 10 appearances with the Wild, but he’s also been inconsistent during that stretch, going without a point in five of those outings. Meanwhile, Zuccarello hadn’t scored a point in five straight games before the break. Maybe the break -- Zuccarello wasn’t involved in the tournament -- has allowed him to reset and put that slump behind him.
That trio is likely to play together while Kaprizov remains out, though once Kaprizov returns, Boldy might shift off that unit to make room for the Wild’s star forward.
Nashville will open the week with a pair of difficult opponents at home, hosting Florida and Winnipeg on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Predators will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.
Nashville showed some hope from Jan. 3-23, winning seven of nine games, but the Predators followed that with a six-game losing streak they couldn’t afford. Nashville now has a 20-29-7 record, putting the team 15 points out of a playoff spot. The team isn’t mathematically eliminated, but there is no longer a realistic path to the postseason for Nashville. To hit 94 points, Nashville would need to go 23-4-1 the rest of the way. That’s simply not happening.
That makes the Predators obvious sellers going into the deadline. Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi and Brady Skjei all have no-movement clauses and significant term left on their contracts, so I wouldn’t expect any kind of blockbuster involving any of them.
Interestingly, Juuse Saros’ new contract, and thus his no-movement clause, doesn’t begin until the 2025-26 campaign, so technically the Predators could trade the goaltender, but I doubt they will. Saros’ eight-year, $61.92 million deal looked good when he inked it, but the 29-year-old has struggled this campaign with an 11-23-6 record, 2.95 GAA and .898 save percentage in 41 appearances prior to the tournament. He had a minus-3.5 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck, which suggests he’s been below average even after considering the poor play in front of him. Teams might be hesitant to take on that big contract given his recent performance, and Nashville might be equally reluctant to trade him at a time when his value is down.
Still, Nashville should be active at the deadline. Gustav Nyquist, who is playing the final season of his two-year, $6.37 million contract, is likely gone. His 20 points in 55 appearances this campaign is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24, but the 35-year-old should still be a capable middle-six forward for a contender and, frankly, a move away from the Predators’ struggles should do him some good.
Perhaps Ryan O'Reilly will be moved as well. He’s signed through 2026-27, but his $4.5 million cap hit is fair for the two-way center who has 14 goals, 34 points and a 56.6 faceoff percentage in 53 outings this season. The 34-year-old is a former Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winner, which is sure to appeal to contenders, and the fact that he’s got term left on his deal means that he would command more than a rental price. He also lacks a no-trade clause, making a potential move that much easier. That said, it really depends on how bad the Predators see their situation. Nashville still has a veteran core, and with so many players locked to NMCs, the franchise is unlikely to embrace a rebuild at this time. If that’s the case, then Nashville might prefer to keep O’Reilly under the belief that the team will bounce back over the next two years. At the least, the Predators likely aren’t motivated sellers when it comes to him, so they would need to be offered a very appealing return.
It'd be much cheaper for teams to pry Luke Schenn from the Predators. He’s in the middle season of a three-year, $8.25 million contract, so he’s not a rental either, but the 35-year-old defenseman is presumably not as big of a part of Nashville’s plans. For a team looking to win now, though, Schenn provides some value. He is a physical force with 41 PIM and 207 hits through 56 outings and would be a solid third-pairing option on a playoff squad. His cap hit might be a touch high for what he brings to the table, but at $2.75 million, it’s workable.
Moving from one seller to another, the Penguins aren’t quite out of the playoff race, but they probably won’t make it. At the least, Pittsburgh needs to be great down the stretch to close the gap, which means the Penguins need a big week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday before returning home to host the Flyers, the Bruins and the Maple Leafs on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Sidney Crosby looked great in the 4 Nations Face-Off, contributing a goal and five points across four games for Team Canada. The 37-year-old should be expected to continue to perform for the Penguins down the stretch after supplying 17 goals and 58 points across 55 appearances with Pittsburgh leading up to the tournament. Unfortunately, it’s already well established that the current Penguins can lose even with Crosby keeping up his end of the bargain.
Even if the Penguins are sellers, Crosby is unsurprisingly going nowhere. He has a no-movement clause, and it’s doubtful that either Pittsburgh or Crosby have interest in parting ways. He is the face of the franchise and will likely remain in that position until he hangs up his skates.
The same goes for Evgeni Malkin. The Russian star made his intentions clear in an interview with The Athletic’s Rob Rossi: “I not retire. I know what some people say -- like, I go back to Russia and play for my home team. But I never say it, you know? I retire with Pittsburgh. The Penguins are my team. I love this team. When I retire it’s here.”
So yeah, take him off the list, especially because his no-movement clause gives him final say over his status.
Still, the Penguins are likely to make some moves. Perhaps Matt Grzelcyk, who is playing on a one-year, $2.75 million contract, will be traded. He has a goal and 28 points in 59 appearances while averaging 20:18 of ice time, though he might see his power-play role decline with a new team, which would hurt his fantasy value. He has 10 power-play assists and has logged 2:11 per game with the man advantage this season.
Cody Glass might also be shipped to a team looking for forward depth, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same happen to Anthony Beauvillier. Neither has term left on his contract, though Glass has one season remaining of RFA eligibility.
If Pittsburgh is in the mood for something bigger, the team could take a hard look at moving Rickard Rakell. He’s having a strong campaign with 25 goals and 49 points in 58 appearances. He’s signed through 2027-28 with a $5 million cap hit, so I don’t think the Penguins will move him, but his trade value is good, so it would be a way to shake things up without touching the core. However, the Penguins aren’t expected to enter a full rebuild until after Crosby retires, so rather than move Rakell for picks or long-term prospects, Pittsburgh would presumably want at least one player who is NHL-ready in any Rakell trade.
The Blues will alternate between home and away games next week. They’ll start by hosting Seattle on Tuesday before playing in Washington on Thursday, returning home to face the Kings on Saturday and finally traveling to Dallas for a clash Sunday.
St. Louis is in a similar position to Pittsburgh. It’d be wrong to say all hope for a playoff berth is lost, but with a 26-26-6 (58 points) record, squeaking into the playoffs seems improbable. Perhaps Jordan Binnington can ride the high of backstopping Team Canada to victory in the 4 Nations Face-Off to lead the Blues on a run after the break. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on because he’s a great netminder when he’s at his best, but the problem is that the 31-year-old can end up all over the place. Not to take away from what he just accomplished, but that inconsistency makes it hard for me to count on him to continue at that high level of performance for a sustained period of time.
If he can’t lead St. Louis on a run in the near term, then the Blues are likely to be another seller at the trade deadline. Radek Faksa, who is in the final season of his five-year, $16.25 million contract, would be the most likely player to be dealt under those circumstances. He has three goals, 10 points, 83 hits and 31 blocks in 46 appearances in 2024-25. Those aren’t standout numbers, but Faksa would likely have a market among contenders looking to add to their bottom six.
Maybe trade offers involving Cam Fowler or Nick Leddy will be entertained too. Leddy has a full no-trade clause, while Fowler can limit his options to a four-team trade list, so the two blueliners have considerable control over their respective situations, but they’re also 33 years old and might be interested in the opportunity to play for a contender. Fowler and Leddy are signed through 2025-26, so each of them would come with a bit of term, which adds to their value, especially given that they also come with a reasonable cap hit of roughly $4 million (in Fowler’s case, that’s excluding the $2.5 million Anaheim has retained).
Fowler and Leddy are each capable of serving in a top four capacity. Fowler was already involved in a trade from Anaheim to St. Louis in December, so moving him again is a bit awkward, but given the Blues’ situation, it would make some sense to flip him to a team doing better. As for Leddy, he’s healthy after missing most of the campaign due to a lower-body injury. There seems to be a bit of load management going on given that he averaged just 17:21 of ice time over his first three games back -- his 2023-24 average was 22:22 -- but as he puts some distance between him and his time on the shelf, his workload should increase.
Ryan Suter will also probably get traded if there is interest in him. The 40-year-old isn’t the defenseman he once was, but he would be a nice veteran presence for a contender. Just don’t expect him to average anywhere close to his 20:29 in 2024-25 if he moves away from St. Louis.
If one or more of those blueliners do get traded, then Tyler Tucker will likely see an increase in playing time. We might also see Samuel Johannesson get called up from AHL Springfield to make his NHL debut. The 24-year-old has shown some offensive potential in the minors, providing three goals and 23 points in 46 appearances, so maybe he’d get a trial on the second power-play unit depending on who St. Louis parts with.
If the Blues make some moves up front, then Dalibor Dvorsky would likely get summoned from Springfield. The 19-year-old has looked good with 15 goals and 35 points in 44 AHL outings. It’s also worth keeping Jimmy Snuggerud in the back of your mind. He has 20 goals and 42 points in 32 games with the University of Minnesota as a junior. If he opts to go pro after the NCAA season, it’s feasible that he’ll immediately jump into a middle-six spot with the Blues.
So even if St. Louis misses the playoffs, there are some young players who might make those final weeks worth watching.
The Capitals will be at home next week and won’t have to deal with a back-to-back set. Washington will host Calgary on Tuesday, St. Louis on Thursday and Tampa Bay on Saturday.
Washington went into the break with a dominant lead in the Eastern Conference. The Capitals had 80 points (36-11-8) through 55 appearances, putting them nine points ahead of the second-rank Panthers despite Florida having played in two extra games. Although it’s too early for Washington’s spot atop the conference standings to be assured, we’re quickly approaching a point where the Capitals will have to resist the temptation to go onto cruise control until the playoffs.
While there are obvious benefits to the Capitals’ position, resting on your laurels down the stretch can make it hard to get serious again once the playoffs start. Fortunately, even if Washington soon finds itself in a position where wins feel optional, there will still be something to play for: Alex Ovechkin. The 39-year-old entered the 4 Nations break just 15 goals behind Wayne Gretzky and delivered a hat trick in his second game upon return to close the gap to 12 goals in the remaining 25 games. He’s scored at a pace of 0.67 goals per game this campaign, so becoming the all-time goal scorer by the end of the campaign looks attainable, should he stay healthy.
However, it has to be said that using that as the team’s motivation might be a double-edged sword. Getting the puck to Ovechkin is usually the right call -- he's converting on 18.4 percent of his shots after all -- but if the team puts all its focus into securing the record for Ovechkin, even at the cost of the fundamentals, then it might create bad habits. That’s potentially especially dangerous should the act of winning or losing become secondary.
Either way, he’s the best offensive weapon the Capitals have and should be well-rested after the break. He’s not the only one either -- no Washington player was included in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Although Jordan Binnington got the job done, Logan Thompson would have also been a fantastic option for Team Canada after posting a 24-2-5 record, 2.23 GAA and .921 save percentage through 31 appearances with Washington this season, but he wasn’t included on the roster. The silver lining is that the time off should have given him a chance to reset -- he was working through a slump right before the break, posting a 1-0-2 record, 3.88 GAA and .867 save percentage across three outings.
That’s in contrast to Tom Wilson, who had four goals and six points across his final four outings before the break and has added three points in two games since returning. The 30-year-old has already suprassed his career high in goals with 26 and is on course to surpass his personal best of 52 points -- he has 45 through 57 contests this campaign.
The Jets will open the week by hosting the Sharks, and they’ll follow that up with a two-game road trip to Ottawa and Nashville on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The Jets will conclude the week back home with a clash against the Flyers on Saturday.
Like the Capitals, Winnipeg’s biggest challenge going forward might be finding ways to stay motivated down the stretch as games potentially mean progressively less. The Jets already have 81 points (39-14-3) after just 56 appearances, so their playoff position is fairly secure. They’ve even opened up a nine-point lead in the battle for the Western Conference’s top seed thanks to their active eight-game winning streak.
One benefit of that time off will be the ability to manage Connor Hellebuyck’s workload down the stretch. The 31-year-old netminder should still be counted on to play regularly, but we might see Eric Comrie move up to playing once every third game to make sure Hellebuyck isn’t burnt out by the time the playoffs start. It’s a situation worth monitoring closely if you have Hellebuyck on your fantasy team. Adding Comrie would be a good hedge, especially given that he’s been a fine backup with a 2.57 GAA and a .912 save percentage in 13 appearances.
On the trade front, Winnipeg is projected to have $11.2 million worth of deadline cap space, per Puckpedia, but the Jets are missing their 2025 second and fourth-round selections due to trades before this season, so Winnipeg has a little less to work with when it comes to acquiring players.
Another tricky thing is that…they play in Winnipeg. That’s not me trying to throw shade at the city, that’s me acknowledging a genuine challenge that the franchise has to constantly overcome because of player perceptions. The Athletic recently polled 111 players and granted them anonymity so that they could speak freely. When asked what the first team on their hypothetical no-trade list would be, 48.78 percent picked Winnipeg.
As one player put it: “There’s not much to do out there. It’s (censored) cold. I haven’t heard a guy go to Winnipeg and be like, 'This is going to be my forever home.’”
The second-place Sabres weren’t even close at 19.51 percent despite the Jets being a dominant club while Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs since 2011. It’s not fair, but if a player has a partial no-trade list, then you have to consider the probability that Winnipeg is on it. Even still, Winnipeg might be able to bolster its blue line or add a middle-six forward before the deadline.
Seth Jones has interest in leaving Chicago, and Winnipeg was mentioned as a potential destination by The Athletic. He’d help solidify the Jets’ top four and maybe serve on the second power-play unit. His $9.5 million cap hit is a bit rich, but the cap is going up, and the Blackhawks might be willing to retain part of that salary. However, Jones has a no-movement clause, and given what we’ve already discussed when it comes to players' feelings for Winnipeg, he might not be willing to waive it for the Jets.
Getting Ryan Donato from Chicago might be more viable. It’s a far less splashy move, but Donato would be a nice third-line option. He has 19 goals and 38 points in 55 appearances this season. Connor Murphy would also be a solid add for Winnipeg in a trade with the Blackhawks. After supplying a goal, 13 points, 38 PIM, 72 hits and 100 blocks in 44 appearances with Chicago this campaign, he’d look nice on Winnipeg’s third pairing. Like Jones, though, Winnipeg would have to overcome the NTC problem -- Murphy has a 10-team no-trade list.
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When you’re early in a season, there is always the fear of overreacting to small sample sizes, but sometimes early success or failure really is an indication of what’s to come. That holds true when it comes to two goaltenders who struggled in the opening weeks of the 2024-25 campaign -- Tristan Jarry and Alexandar Georgiev.
Jarry and Georgiev started in the Penguins’ and Avalanche’s season opener, respectively, but neither is even on that team anymore and a failure in between the pipes is the cause in both cases. Georgiev had a disastrous start, going 0-3-0 with a 5.79 GAA and an .802 save percentage across his first four games. He didn’t even post a start in which he allowed fewer than three goals until Nov. 7. In the end, he had an 8-7-0 record, 3.38 GAA and .874 save percentage in 18 outings before the Avalanche cut him loose, packaging him with Nikolai Kovalenko and two picks to get Mackenzie Blackwood from San Jose.
We can’t fully judge the trade yet until we know what becomes of those draft picks -- it will take a while because it’s a 2025 fifth-round selection and a 2026 second-round pick that went San Jose’s way -- but Colorado has plenty of reason to be happy. Blackwood has been brilliant between the pipes for the Avalanche, while Georgiev has done no better in San Jose than he had for Colorado in 2024-25.
Colorado’s situation can be considered lucky compared to Pittsburgh’s. Georgiev is in the final season of his three-year, $10.2 million contract anyway, so putting together an offering with some sweeteners to a rebuilding squad was perfectly feasible. Jarry is in just the second season of his five-year, $26.88 million contract, so finding a taker for him would be far more difficult.
No one wants that contract, and I can say that without any reservation because it’s been proven. Jarry was put on waivers Wednesday, giving the other 31 teams to take over his contract without giving up any assets and every squad passed on the offer. With that, Pittsburgh sent Jarry to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.
Similar to Georgiev, Jarry had a terrible start to the 2024-25 campaign, allowing 12 goals on 73 shots (.836 save percentage) over his first three appearances. Jarry then spent time in the minors on a conditioning stint and seemed to stabilize, posting a 2.16 GAA and a .926 save percentage in five AHL outings, but that didn’t translate into NHL success. After rejoining the Penguins, he allowed five goals on 38 shots to Columbus in his first start back and has continued to struggle, posting an 8-8-4 record, 3.31 GAA and .884 save percentage through 22 NHL outings this campaign.
Given that Jarry floundered even after a strong showing in the minors, it’d be hard to trust him even if he shows promise again in the AHL, especially because the 18-20-8 Penguins have very little margin for error left in their fight to stay in the Wild Card picture. There’s always the chance that injuries or a trade will change things, but for now, Pittsburgh seems set to spend the final months of the season with the goaltending duo of Alex Nedeljkovic and Joel Blomqvist, the latter of whom was called up in a move corresponding with Jarry’s demotion. Blomqvist is just 23 and someone the Penguins hope will be a significant part of the team long-term.
Speaking of the future, there are likely no good solutions when it comes to Jarry. Barring a comeback for the ages, the Penguins will likely look to part ways with him over the summer. They could try bundling draft picks to trade him but at $5.375 million through 2027-28 for a goaltender struggling to stay in the NHL, finding a suitor would be a challenge. Maybe a combination of the Penguins’ offering a really nice sweetener -- Penguins GM Kyle Dubas showed during his time in Toronto that he’d willingly sacrifice a first-round pick in exchange for cap savings -- and retaining some of his remaining salary would be enough to make it happen, but the Penguins would have to decide if they’re really that desperate to move him.
An alternative would be to buy out his remaining term, which would leave Pittsburgh with a cap hit of roughly $1.75 million in 2025-26 for a saving of roughly $3.63 million, but the dead cap would increase to $5.05 million in 2026-27 and be $4.55 million in 2027-28. The Penguins would then have $797,222 of dead cap space in each campaign from 2028-29 through 2030-31. In other words, they’d have a meaningful amount of extra wiggle room next season, but after that, any benefit to buying him out is basically over.
Still, the Penguins might be uniquely positioned for that arrangement to make sense. Erik Karlsson is 34, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are 37 and Evgeni Malkin is 38. Realistically, Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup window has already closed, but the franchise is reluctant to start a rebuild while the old guard is still playing good hockey. So how about this: The Penguins make the 2025-26 the last dance with this group and then embrace the rebuild. Yes, Crosby and Karlsson are signed through 2026-27 and Letang through 2027-28, but by that point, Crosby and Letang will be approaching 40 while Malkin, whose contract expires after 2025-26, might be gone. Unless something major changes, it seems hard to see how the Penguins will be competitive by that point anyway, so they’ll likely be in rebuild mode regardless of what they want.
So perhaps that’s what will end up happening. In the meantime, though, Jarry will report to the minors while Crosby and Co. will chase a return to the playoffs.
The Bruins stopped a six-game losing streak with a 4-3 overtime victory over Florida on Jan. 11 and put more distance on that slump by besting Tampa Bay 6-2 on Jan. 14. Still, the Bruins have no breathing room in the battle for a Wild Card spot, so they need to stay strong. They’ll host the Sharks on Monday, play in New Jersey on Wednesday and then spend their final two games of the week at home, facing Ottawa and Colorado on Thursday and Saturday, respectively.
With over half the campaign in the bank, Boston is still searching for offense up the middle. Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha kept the Bruins afloat in that regard last season, providing 60 and 59 points, respectively, but Boston believed it could do even better by signing Elias Lindholm to a massive seven-year, $54.25 million contract.
That hasn’t worked out. Lindholm has just seven goals and 22 points in 46 appearances this year. What makes that more troubling is it comes after he was limited to 15 goals and 44 points in 75 outings in 2023-24. Boston clearly felt that down campaign was an anomaly for Lindholm, who has surpassed the 60-point milestone on three occasions, but perhaps the back half of his career won’t be filled with offensive accomplishments.
Making matters worse is the lackluster production from Zacha (10 goals, 24 points) and Coyle (10 goals, 15 points) this campaign. At least Brad Marchand (16 goals, 35 points) and David Pastrnak (20 goals, 48 points) are still doing well, but the Bruins’ scoring depth beyond that is looking rather bad.
Although it would be awkward to add yet another center when Coyle, Zacha and Lindholm consume a collective $17.75 million in cap space, that might be the play that would improve the Bruins the most. Then again, perhaps the Bruins won’t be buyers at the deadline.
“We’ll see where we’re at,” Bruins president Cam Neely recently said, per Amalie Benjamin of NHL.com. “I think right now, we’ve got to look at two paths: one that we’re buying and one that we may be retooling a little bit.”
In other words, these next few weeks are all the more important. Perhaps that will provide Boston with extra motivation, especially from the team’s core.
The Hurricanes got off to a 20-10-1 start but went just 6-6-2 from Dec. 20-Jan. 15, so they have some work to do. They’ll start on the road next week with matches in Chicago on Monday and Dallas on Tuesday before returning home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday. The Hurricanes will conclude the week with a road tilt versus the Islanders.
Carolina got some good news with the activation of Frederik Andersen (knee) off injured reserve. Although Andersen started the campaign with a 3-1-0 record, 1.49 GAA and .941 save percentage in four outings, he hasn’t played since Oct. 26. Rust might be a factor, but he still should have the edge for the starting gig ahead of Pyotr Kochetkov, who has a 16-9-2 record, 2.54 GAA and .901 save percentage in 28 appearances. It seems extremely likely that Kochetkov will see his workload diminish but given Andersen’s age (35) and injury history, Carolina might hesitate to lean on him too much even if he produces good results. Despite the Hurricanes’ mediocre play of late, Carolina’s position is still strong enough to prioritize making sure Andersen will be optimal for the playoffs.
Andersen isn’t the only veteran of importance for the team. The 36-year-old Jordan Staal is a valued member too, though the team captain’s contributions typically aren’t in the offensive zone. One notable exception to that was from Jan. 5-10 -- a stretch in which Staal collected five goals and eight points over four games. That stretch included a hat trick on Jan. 9, the fifth of his career and second since joining Carolina in 2012.
The good times are probably over, though. He had no points and no shots for Carolina on Jan. 12 and Jan. 15, so if you picked him up for the hot streak, it’s time to move on. On the plus side, Brent Burns is still hot. He has five assists over his past five appearances and nine points (two goals) across his last 11 outings. Burns has taken a step back offensively in 2024-25, largely due to his diminished power-play role, but his recent success has pushed him up to four goals and 18 points in 45 outings in 2024-25. Who knows, maybe he’ll have a strong second half, though I’d feel more confident about suggesting that if he was on the top power-play unit. As it is, Burns has just one assist with the man advantage this season, down from 20 power-play points in 2023-24.
The Wild are enduring about as close as they get to a cold spell with three defeats over their past four games, dropping them to 27-14-4. Things won’t get any easier Monday in Colorado, but the rest of the week looks favorable. Minnesota will host Utah on Thursday, Calgary on Saturday and play in Chicago on Sunday.
The Wild's biggest issue is the absence of star forward Kirill Kaprizov (lower body). He was moved to long-term injured reserve Thursday, and although it’s retroactive to Dec. 23, they probably wouldn’t have done that if he was expected back soon. Minnesota will also miss Marcus Johansson (head) next week after sustaining the injury Wednesday.
Those absences have opened the door for Liam Ohgren, who was recalled from AHL Iowa on Thursday and will presumably play regularly next week. The 20-year-old was taken with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft and has shown promise in the AHL, supplying 12 goals and 23 points in 25 outings this season. He hasn’t recorded a point in eight games with Minnesota in 2024-25, but he’s also averaged just 9:53 of ice time over that stretch. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays a bigger role than he did during his stint in October, both because he’s gotten some seasoning in the minors and the fact that Kaprizov and Johansson were eating big minutes.
Then again, Jakub Lauko is also in the mix. He hasn’t played since Dec. 14 due to a lower-body injury, but he’s off IR now, setting the stage for his return. Before the injury, he had two goals and four points across 24 appearances with the Wild in 2024-25 while averaging just 10:00. Lauko is more of a gritty forward without Ohgren’s offensive upside, but perhaps that’s what the Wild want to help fill out the minutes lost, especially given Lauko’s edge in NHL experience.
That aside, Minnesota has to be happy that Ryan Hartman has stepped up in the face of those injuries, providing three goals and seven points across his past eight appearances, especially after struggling up to that point with four goals and seven points across his past 32 outings. Hartman hasn’t seen consistent use on the power play in 2024-25, but his recent play might lead to Minnesota reevaluating that. Although he hasn’t come close to replicating his 34-goal, 65-point showing in 2021-22 since that campaign, Hartman can still be an effective secondary scorer under the right circumstances and did provide 10 power-play points -- 45 overall -- in 2023-24.
This has been a miserable season for the Predators, but they’ve won their last two games and do have some favorable matchups ahead. They’ll play a home-and-away series against San Jose on Tuesday and Thursday before facing the Ducks in Anaheim on Saturday.
There’s not much in the way of silver linings for Nashville this campaign, but at least Steven Stamkos has gotten better as he’s settled in with the club. He has an impressive 11 goals and 21 points across his past 26 appearances, a stark change from his opening eight games in which he was limited to just one point (a goal). There were plenty of assessments that Tampa Bay was right to cut him loose when the squad did, and while the Lightning certainly have to be happy with how things are working out with Jake Guentzel, it seems Stamkos has something left in the tank.
Jonathan Marchessault has also hit his stride. He had five goals and 13 points over his first 28 outings with the Predators, but he’s been one of the league’s top players dating back to Dec. 10 with nine goals and 20 points across 16 games.
That begs the question, though: If Nashville’s big free-agent signings are paying off after all, then why is Nashville still just 15-22-7? Sure, the Predators have looked better from Dec. 12 onward with an 8-6-1 record, but even that stretch doesn’t align with the team’s high offseason expectations.
Part of the problem is secondary scoring. In addition to Stamkos and Marchessault, the Predators do have Filip Forsberg (13 goals, 38 points), Ryan O’Reilly (13 goals, 26 points) and defenseman Roman Josi (eight goals, 30 points), but no one else has reached the 20-point mark. That gives Nashville five players who have passed that milestone while the average team has 7.17. The average team also has 5.56 players with at least 10 goals while Nashville has four.
The fall of Gustav Nyquist, who recorded 75 points last campaign but has just 18 points (seven goals) in 43 appearances in 2024-25, is a big factor in that, and unlike Stamkos and Marchessault, Nyquist doesn’t seem to be getting meaningfully better as the campaign progresses. It’d also have been nice if the 22-year-old Luke Evangelista built off his 2023-24 39-point showing, but instead, he has four goals and 14 points in 39 appearances this season.
The other factor is the defense. Nashville is tied for 21st in xGA/60 with 3.07, per Moneypuck. Juuse Saros has held his own with a plus-2.5 goals saved above expected, but that just suggests he’s been average rather than exceptional and on a team with as leaky a defense as the Predators’, they really do need the Saros of old. Instead, the current version is 10-18-6 with a 2.75 GAA and a .903 save percentage. He continues to be consistent too, supplying a 4-5-1 record, 2.80 GAA and .889 save percentage across his past 10 games.
Ottawa is 22-18-4 and in the mix for a playoff spot, but the Senators have to be nervous given the recent success enjoyed by Detroit and Montreal. The pressure is on Ottawa going into its road tilts against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Bruins on Thursday. The Senators will then play in Toronto on Saturday and Utah on Sunday.
Ottawa’s forwards have been going through a quiet stretch with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk each recording three or fewer points over Ottawa’s past four games. Shane Pinto is enjoying some success, though, supplying two goals and four points over his past four games.
Pinto hasn’t been great overall in 2024-25 with eight goals and 14 points in 36 appearances. He showed offensive potential over his previous two campaigns with 29 goals and 62 points across 123 outings, but the 24-year-old hasn’t taken the next step yet, despite averaging a healthy 17:40 of ice time in 2024-25.
It’d help if he shot the puck more. He’s averaging just 6.1 shots/60, down from 8.9 last year, which is why he’s been limited to eight markers despite a healthy 12.3 shooting percentage (his career average is 10.9). He’s showing no signs of doing that, though, managing just six shots over his past four games. Unless that changes, Pinto likely won’t be a long-term play.
Things have looked better in goal, though. Linus Ullmark (back) is still out and probably won’t return next week, but his continued absence has been made tolerable by the rise of Leevi Merilainen. The 22-year-old rookie has a 5-2-1 record, 1.84 GAA and .930 save percentage in eight outings in 2024-25. He’s made four consecutive starts for Ottawa, allowing a mere three goals on 106 shots (.972 save percentage).
It’s inevitable that he’s going to have bad games, but if his overall level of play remains high, then Ottawa will have a near impossible time justifying sending him down after Ullmark returns. Instead, Anton Forsberg, who is 4-8-1 with a 3.10 GAA and an .883 save percentage, might find himself on waivers, which would allow Ottawa to go with an Ullmark-Merilainen combo. There’s also a chance that Forsberg might be traded or even claimed because he’s in the final season of a three-year, $8.25 million deal, which makes him a tolerable rental from a cap perspective but given his lackluster play over the past three years (30-31-3, 3.21 GAA, .894 save percentage), the other team would need to be fairly desperate.
Tampa Bay has played in just 43 games through Friday’s action, the second least in the league, so the Lightning are going to have a bit of a busier schedule than most for the remainder of the campaign. The Lightning will experience that in the upcoming week during their four-game road trip with stops in Toronto on Monday, Montreal on Tuesday, Chicago on Friday and Detroit on Saturday.
The Lightning are fortunate to be healthy in goal and up front, but blueliner Erik Cernak did sustain an undisclosed injury Thursday and is day-to-day as of the time of writing. Tampa Bay was already missing J.J. Moser (lower body), so that brings Tampa Bay down to five healthy blueliners if Cernak is unavailable.
Nick Perbix might see an increase in playing time from his season average of 15:28. He has four goals, 11 points, 14 PIM, 28 hits and 40 blocks in 38 appearances in 2024-25, so he’s only a factor in the deepest of fantasy leagues. The 23-year-old Emil Lilleberg getting a bigger role would be more interesting. Lilleberg ranks second among all defensemen with 72 PIM, and he has 71 hits. If an increase in playing time leads to even a modest uptick in offensive production -- he has nine assists in 40 appearances while averaging 15:43 of ice time -- then that would be interesting in leagues that also use penalty minutes.
Regardless of what happens on defense, though, Tampa Bay has a forward group to be envious of. The Lightning have five forwards with 37 or more points compared to the league average of 1.59. There’s also Nick Paul, who is a solid secondary scorer with 11 goals and 25 points in 37 appearances. He’s on a bit of a roll right now with two goals and five points over his past six games, so he’s worth consideration as a short-term grab, especially given Tampa Bay’s packed upcoming lineup.
Meanwhile, Nikita Kucherov remains as dominant as ever. He’s on a seven-game scoring streak in which he’s provided three goals and 11 points, giving him 20 markers and 65 points in 41 outings overall. He ranks third in the scoring race behind Nathan MacKinnon (17 goals, 72 points) and Leon Draisaitl (31 goals, 67 points) and just ahead of Connor McDavid (20 goals, 64 points). It wouldn’t be surprising to see those four compete for the Art Ross Trophy for the remainder of the season.
Vegas is cruising towards the playoffs with its 29-12-3 record, though it has hit a speed bump, dropping three of its past four games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see better results next week, though. The Golden Knights will start with a home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Thursday. Vegas will then play in Dallas on Friday and host the Panthers on Sunday.
I’m so used to the Golden Knights having injury problems, that it’s weird to see the team basically healthy. Lukas Cormier is on the season-opening injured reserve list, but he’ll probably be sent to the minors once he’s ready to return.
That gives us a glimpse of how this team assembles at full strength. Presently, the forward talent is spread out nicely. Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone make for a strong first line while Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson each center one of the other two scoring lines -- it's debatable which of those is second and which is third. Presently, Karlsson has Brett Howden on his wing while Hertl has Pavel Dorofeyev.
Then there’s the 23-year-old Cole Schwindt, who doesn’t have much of a role when everyone is healthy. He averaged just 8:24 of ice time from Dec. 19-Jan. 12 and typically doesn’t get consistent linemates. He was then a healthy scratch Tuesday but is projected to draw back into the lineup Friday with the 22-year-old Alexander Holtz resting instead. Holtz also doesn’t have a consistent role when the team is at full strength.
Nicolas Roy is technically the fourth center, but he’s playing more than that role implies, averaging 15:59 per game. He also brings more to the table offensively than someone with the “fourth-line center” label. He had 13 goals and 41 points in 70 outings in 2023-24 and is at six goals and 14 points across 33 appearances this season.
Combine that with the ability to utilize Noah Hanifin, Brayden McNabb, Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore as the squad’s top-four defensemen, and it’s not hard to see why this group is enjoying so much success. There aren’t any glaring needs that they even have going into the playoffs, though it can usually never hurt to have too much depth, so maybe Vegas will look to add a complementary piece or two as some injury insurance.
Winnipeg has won its past three games, bringing it up to 31-12-3 in 2024-25. That puts them on a 55-win pace, which would be the most in franchise history -- the Jets’ previous best was 52 in 2017-18 and 2023-24. We’ll see if the Jets can continue their smooth performance this campaign next week. They’ll play in Utah on Monday and Colorado on Wednesday before returning home to host Utah on Friday and the Flames on Sunday.
Connor Hellebuyck remains the backbone of their success. He’s allowed just four goals on 93 shots (.957 save percentage) over his past four starts and now has a 28-6-2 record, 1.97 GAA and .929 save percentage in 36 outings. Like the Jets, it’s entirely feasible that he’ll surpass his career high in wins. His current best is 44, which he set in 2017-18. Assumingly, that wasn’t one of the two times he won the Vezina Trophy, finishing second that year to Pekka Rinne with both of those netminders getting similar results -- Hellebuyck was 44-11-9 with a 2.36 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 67 appearances while Rinne was 42-13-4 with a 2.31 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 59 starts.
This season, Hellebuyck is looking like a heavy favorite in the Vezina Trophy race. In addition to dominating the win category (the next best goaltender is Jake Oettinger with 22), he also leads in save percentage (Hellebuyck’s .929 narrowly beats Anthony Stolarz’s .927, though Stolarz has been limited to 17 starts due to injury) and GAA (his 1.97 tops Darcy Kuemper’s 2.06, and again, Hellebuyck has a huge edge in starts compared to Kuemper’s 22) among those with at least 10 appearances.
In a different year, I think there’d be a strong Hart argument to be made for Hellebuyck too, but that would require the top of the scoring leaderboard to be less impressive. We’re probably going to see one or more forwards top 120 points, so odds are one of them will get the Hart. Still, Hellebuyck’s dominance this campaign is remarkable.
We shouldn’t sell the offense short, though. The Jets do rank second in goals per game with 3.57. The top line of Kyle Connor (26 goals, 60 points), Mark Scheifele (27 goals, 53 points) and Gabriel Vilardi (19 goals, 41 points) have led the charge in that regard, but Nikolaj Ehlers’ contributions shouldn’t be overlooked either. He has 14 goals and 38 points across 37 outings in 2024-25, including five goals and 13 points in 13 games since returning from a lower-body injury. Ehlers numbers become more impressive when you consider he’s averaging a somewhat modest 15:37. No player has more points than Ehlers while averaging under 16 minutes (Jason Zucker is next with 33 points), and that’s despite Ehlers missing nine games due to his injury.
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Are the New York Rangers really this bad or just stuck in an absurdly long slump? Or is there a third possibility?
The common narrative seems to put the blame on Rangers president and GM Chris Drury, who some speculate has created a rift between management and the players that's having a significant impact on the ice. Vincent Z. Mercogliano of Lohud reported that some on the team have taken issue with Drury's methods, from waiving Barclay Goodrow to get around his no-trade clause to threatening to do the same to captain Jacob Trouba if he didn't sign off on a trade to Anaheim, to Drury reportedly issuing a memo that the Rangers were open for business on the trade front following a loss to Edmonton, despite team still being a strong 12-6-1 at that time.
Then there was the incident with Kaapo Kakko. Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to scratch him for Tuesday's tilt against Nashville after New York lost 10 of 13, dropping to 15-14-1. However, Kakko took exception to that, feeling he was getting unfairly singled out.
"I know you've got to do something as a coach when you're losing games, but I think it's just easy to pick a young guy and boot him out. That's how I feel, to be honest," Kakko said, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post. He added, "I have not been the worst guy. But that was me out of the lineup."
The Rangers ended up losing 2-0 to Nashville. The next day, Kakko was dealt to Seattle. Even if Kakko never really developed as the Rangers hoped when they selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, that whole saga this week was another distraction that the team could ill afford.
But is this really as simple as mismanagement leading to the group failing to play up to its potential or is there a deeper problem? On the surface, the answer seems obvious. The Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024 and started the campaign 12-4-1. How could this not be a team capable of contending?
There are some areas of concern, though. Chris Kreider's success has been driven by his ability to score goals, but he might be slowing in that regard at the age of 33. He has 10 markers in 28 appearances in 2024-25, which would be considered good for other players, but he doesn't bring a lot else to the table -- he has just one assist -- so that's worrying.
Mika Zibanejad has seen his production dip too. He has six goals and 21 points through 31 outings and is in a four-way tie for the fourth-worst plus/minus at minus-17. Plus/minus isn't the best metric, but he also has a relative 5v5 CF% and 5v5 FF% of minus-6.7 and minus-5.8, respectively, which suggests that his team is doing better in terms of puck possession when he's off the ice compared to when he's on it. He also has a 5v5 CF%/FF% of 44.0/44.2, which would represent career lows for him.
To some extent, this reminds me a little of what happened to the San Jose Sharks. They were a perennial contender through the 2018-19 campaign. They reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and the Western Conference Final in 2019. San Jose was far from resting on its laurels either. Still searching for that elusive championship, San Jose acquired elite defenseman Erik Karlsson in September 2018 and locked him up to an eight-year, $92 million contract in the summer of 2019.
The stage seemed to be set for the Sharks to be Cup contenders in 2019-20. Sure, Joe Pavelski was gone, but the forward group of Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl was still fairly young. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau were there as the veteran presences, and the duo of Karlsson and Brent Burns was one of the best on paper. Not only did San Jose fail to make the playoffs that year, but the Sharks haven't made it since. In retrospect, they misjudged their core and got caught in an awkward position of needing to rebuild but being slow to do so due to their already established long-term contracts.
It might be overly dramatic to suggest that the Rangers are a repeat of that, but a slump this long and dramatic is unusual and hard to dismiss.
Igor Shesterkin just has to hope that the Sharks comparison proves to be invalid. In that scenario, he'd be the Karlsson: A player who made a major commitment to a team he thought was going to be a contender, only to see some of his prime years squandered. Shesterkin recently agreed to his own eight-year, $92 million contract that doesn't even begin until next year. Maybe he'll end up having better luck with the team around him than Karlsson…
The upcoming week will be relatively light because the NHL will not play Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday due to its Christmas break. That said, there are still teams worth highlighting, starting with the Bruins, who begin the week with a difficult home game against Washington on Monday but will then face the rebuilding Blue Jackets on the road Friday and then in Boston on Saturday.
The Bruins' rough start to the campaign is largely behind them. From Nov. 21 onward, the Bruins have a 9-4-1 record to put them at 17-13-4 overall. The single biggest difference is that Boston has given up far fewer goals, going from an average of 3.45 goals allowed over its 8-9-3 start to 2.71 across its past 15 games.
Jeremy Swayman has been a benefactor of that, posting a 2.68 GAA over that 15-game span (he's appeared in 10 of those contests) while earning a 6-3-1 record. However, Swayman's save percentage during that stretch is a less impressive .892. It's worth noting that span includes a rough 8-1 loss to Winnipeg in which Swayman was charged with every goal. If you exclude that one start, then his save percentage during that span jumps to .912.
Boston's offense has also improved over the past 15 games, though it's still not special, earning 2.86 goals per game over that stretch compared to 2.40 during the first 20 games. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie have provided some key secondary scoring recently, totaling nine and eight points, respectively, across Boston's last 15 outings. Neither one has been particularly consistent, though, and their production is only impressive when measured against their dreadful starts to the campaign.
Meanwhile, Elias Lindholm continues to underwhelm with five goals and 17 points through 34 appearances. However, he is on a three-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), so perhaps he'll be effective in the upcoming week.
I started this article by highlighting the Rangers for their struggles, but Buffalo has been even worse. Going into Friday's action, the Sabres have lost 11 straight games, dropping to 11-17-4. Rather than showing signs of turning things around, they suffered a 6-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday.
The Sabres won't face particularly stiff competition next week, though, so perhaps they can stabilize. They'll play on the road against the Islanders on Monday, host Chicago on Friday and conclude the week in St. Louis on Sunday.
Finding a diamond in the rough on a team doing that poorly is difficult. Jason Zucker is about as close as you'll come. He has eight goals and 21 points through 32 appearances, making this a nice bounce-back campaign for him after he finished 2023-24 with 32 points in 69 regular-season games between Arizona and Nashville. It helps that he's averaging 2:53 with the man advantage, which would be a career-high if he maintains that. Zucker has seven power-play points (three goals), which puts him on track to easily surpass his 2023-24 total of 10 and potentially even best his personal best of 16, which was set in 2017-18.
Outside of that, though, there isn't much to like. Rasmus Dahlin (back) is set to return on Friday, which should be a significant boost for Buffalo. The Sabres' losing streak predates Dahlin's seven-game absence, but it's still reasonable to say that Dahlin plays an important role for Buffalo and that his exclusion from the lineup was felt. He has six goals and 19 points in 25 appearances in 2024-25 while averaging 24:42 of ice time, including 3:23 with the man advantage.
Owen Power has been seeing significant power-play usage recently, but with Dahlin back, Power might be absent from the power play entirely for Friday's game. For other defensemen, that would be a big blow, but Power has failed to take advantage of that role -- he hasn't recorded a single power-play point in 2024-25 -- so it shouldn't change much for those who have Power on their team.
Dallas is set to play in Utah on Monday, host the Wild on Friday and play in Chicago on Sunday. It's not a bad schedule, but under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be good enough to highlight. Still, it's nice to have an opportunity to talk about Dallas, which has done well this campaign with a 19-12-0 record heading into Friday's action.
The Stars are also in an interesting spot right now. Matt Duchene is their scoring leader with 30 points (13 goals) in 31 appearances, but his hot start has come to an end with him recording just a goal and three points across his past nine outings. Duchene's cold stretch probably isn't the new normal, but it's equally fair to suggest that he overperformed early in the campaign. His shooting percentage, which remains an uncomfortably high 26.0, suggests that there might still be more backsliding to come. He might ultimately finish the campaign with 60-70 points, which would be in line with his 2023-24 results and would represent a mild, but not dramatic, scoring decline from his overall scoring pace this campaign.
Fortunately for Dallas, Duchene's decline has corresponded with Jason Robertson showing signs of life. The 25-year-old forward's overall numbers this campaign remain well below what you'd expect from him (seven goals and 21 points in 31 games), but he has collected two goals and six points over his past five appearances.
Jamie Benn has also been solid, recording an assist in each of his past six outings and contributing two goals and nine points across his last 10 games. His 20 points through 31 appearances in 2024-25 still put him on pace to finish below his 60-point regular-season total from 2023-24, but it still wouldn't be shocking to see him end up hitting that mark by the end of the campaign.
The Wild will begin next week by hosting the Blackhawks before playing in Dallas on Friday and finally returning home to face the Senators on Sunday. Dallas, as discussed above, is a tough opponent, but Chicago is a rebuilding squad, and the Senators are a middling 7-7-1 on the road.
The big question out of Minnesota is the health of Filip Gustavsson. At the time of writing, he's out with a lower-body injury, but his status appears to be day-to-day, so it's possible he'll be back next week. Gustavsson has been a key part of Minnesota's success with a 14-5-3 record, 2.24 GAA and .922 save percentage in 22 appearances.
Marc-Andre Fleury has been mostly okay this campaign, but the 40-year-old netminder is coming off a rough 6-1 loss to Florida on Wednesday, which dropped him to a 2.88 GAA and a .898 save percentage through 10 outings this season. The current alternative to him is Jesper Wallstedt, who stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Dec. 15. To be fair to both goaltenders, Florida and Vegas are some of the toughest competition they could have possibly faced.
Still, it seems reasonable that they'll need a meaningful amount of goal support going forward. Fortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to play like Kirill Kaprizov. The elite forward has nine goals and 14 points over his past 11 appearances, which gives him 22 goals and 48 points in 31 outings overall. Mats Zuccarello also returned Dec. 14 from a lower-body injury and has gotten back to work with three assists over three outings.
Zuccarello's return also means Matt Boldy has shifted to the second line. Boldy has an impressive 13 goals and 30 points in 32 contests in 2024-25, but Kaprizov has been involved in 18 of those points. They are still sharing the ice on the power play, but if they don't skate together regularly in 5-on-5 situations, then Boldy might see a modest decline in production.
Pittsburgh seemed doomed to miss the playoffs again based on its 7-12-4 start, but the Penguins have rebounded by going 8-2-1 since. Can they keep it up next week? They'll host the Flyers on Monday before a back-to-back set against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday. Pittsburgh will be on the road for the first half of that set and then play at home.
So who is responsible for Pittsburgh's comeback? Is it Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin? Actually, it's Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.
That's not to take anything away from Crosby, who has nine goals and 35 points in 34 outings in 2024-25, or Malkin, who has seven goals and 27 points. However, Crosby has been largely productive during the good times and bad while Malkin was actually doing better early in the campaign.
Their importance is clear, but what has really changed recently is Rust and Rakell providing far more than just secondary scoring. If I told you that a Penguins forward had nine goals and 17 points across the past 11 appearances without providing any other context, your first guess would likely be Malkin or Crosby, but that's what Rust has done. He was limited early in the campaign due to injury, but he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career lately.
Rakell has been nearly as good, supplying eight goals and 14 points across the same 11-game span. That brings him up to 15 goals and 26 points through 34 outings overall. His offensive struggles in 2023-24, dropping to 37 points from 60 points in 2022-23, were part of why the Penguins fell short of playoffs last year, so it seems appropriate that his resurgence is leading Pittsburgh back into postseason contention.
Not everything is rosy with the Penguins, though. Goaltending was the team's biggest issue early in the campaign and it remains a question mark. Tristan Jarry has a 3.62 GAA and a .883 save percentage through 14 outings and has surrendered at least three goals in three of his past four starts. Alex Nedeljkovic isn't giving the Penguins much of an alternative, though, with his own 3.26 GAA and .886 save percentage through 14 outings.
Pittsburgh does rank 28th in xGA/60 (3.30), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of the netminders deserves part of the blame. However, Nedeljkovic has a goals saved above expected of minus-6.0 while Jarry is at minus-6.5, so this seems to be a case of both a bad defense and poor goaltending. The result is Pittsburgh ranks last in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.68. For context, that's just outside of the top-10 worst of any team in the salary cap era (2005-06 and onward). Of the teams who have posted a goals allowed per game worse than Pittsburgh, none of them finished with a points percentage of .500 or better.
The Blues will start next week with a game in Detroit on Monday, but after that, they'll return to St. Louis to host Nashville on Friday and Buffalo on Sunday. St. Louis has been a mixed bag in 2024-25, posting a 15-16-3 record going into Friday's action.
Jordan Binnington has left plenty to be desired this campaign with an 8-13-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .896 save percentage in 25 appearances. He's had some good stretches, but he's been inconsistent and is presently in a cold stretch after allowing at least three goals in six of his past seven games. His struggles have led to Joel Hofer becoming more of a 1B rather than a true backup, and Hofer might begin to migrate into being the 1A. The 24-year-old hasn't been stealing the show, but he has been the better option with a 7-3-0 record, 2.72 GAA and .907 save percentage through 11 appearances.
Of course, the Blues aren't alone in their goaltending woes. We just discussed a worse situation in Pittsburgh, but St. Louis doesn't have the offensive prowess to make up for it. The Blues rank 30th in goals per game with 2.50.
Robert Thomas has done well recently with four goals and 14 points across his past nine appearances while Jordan Kyrou has supplied seven goals and eight points over the same stretch, so the team isn't completely devoid of scoring, but it lacks depth and consistency.
Brandon Saad stands out as someone who has been disappointing when it comes to secondary scoring. After supplying 26 goals and 42 points in 82 outings last year, he has four markers and 10 points through 30 appearances in 2024-25. His decline has led to St. Louis using him less and less. He's even set to be a healthy scratch Friday. At this point, I don't have a lot of hope that he'll rebound, though he's not too old at 32, so anything is possible.
Tampa Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and is 7-1-0 over its past eight to improve to 18-10-2 on the season. The Lightning will seek to keep that momentum going next week, when it plays in Florida on Monday and hosts the Rangers and the Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
The Lightning deserve a lot of credit for moving on from Steven Stamkos and instead signing Jake Guentzel over the summer. While Stamkos has started to find his way with Nashville after a rocky start, Guentzel is four years younger and has proven to be a great fit.
Guentzel enjoyed an incredible seven-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 30-Dec. 17 and now has 18 markers and 33 points across 30 appearances in 2024-25. The trio of Guentzel, Brayden Point (21 goals and 38 points in 26 outings) and Nikita Kucherov (14 goals and 35 points in 31 appearances) have been wildly successful. It would not be shocking if each of those three finished the campaign with over 40 goals and 80 points. That alone would make the Lightning a dangerous adversary, but they also have Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli excelling on the second line with 37 and 28 points, respectively.
One underrated aspect of this team is how well Tampa Bay has performed defensively. The Lightning ranked 18th in xGA/60 last campaign (3.14) but are sixth in 2024-25 (2.78). That's part of the reason why Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked so much better this campaign, posting a 2.38 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 25 appearances compared to his 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 51 regular-season games last year.
Tampa Bay could use a better backup, though. Jonas Johansson has a 3.84 GAA and .882 save percentage in six appearances, and the Lightning's lack of trust in him has led to Tampa Bay leaning heavily on Vasilevskiy. The 30-year-old Vasilevskiy is no stranger to heavy workloads, but I have to wonder if the Lightning won't look to add a goaltender at some point in the hopes of managing Vasilevskiy a bit ahead of what Tampa Bay doubtlessly hopes will be a lengthy playoff run.
The Golden Knights have a relatively favorable week ahead of them. They'll host the Ducks on Monday, play in San Jose on Friday and then return home to face the Flames on Sunday. Vegas is 21-8-3 and has been particularly dominant at home (12-3-0), though the Golden Knights should also be heavy favorites against the 11-19-5 Sharks, even if that is a road engagement.
Injuries have been a recurring issue for Vegas in recent years, and while they haven't been immune to them in 2024-25, it hasn't been as bad. Vegas has nine forwards, including Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Tomas Hertl, and four defensemen, namely Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb, who have logged at least 29 of 32 games. That doesn't make Vegas special from a health perspective, but it's certainly not bad.
Mark Stone is the main notable exception to that. He was so good early in the campaign with six goals and 21 points through 13 appearances, but he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of 14 games from Nov. 8-Dec. 4. Since returning, he's been fine, but the injury stopped his momentum, leaving him with four assists across his past five outings.
Eichel's been healthy, though, and on his way to having the best campaign of his career. He's up to nine goals and 42 points through 32 outings. Eichel's never recorded more than 82 points in a single campaign, in large part due to injuries. That's killed the whole Eichel versus Connor McDavid debate -- although Eichel is the one with a championship, there's no question who has been more impressive -- but not too much has separated them so far this campaign. McDavid is narrowly ahead with 15 goals and 45 points through 29 outings.
Another former Sabres forward has been even hotter than Eichel recently. Surprisingly, Victor Olofsson has provided four goals over his past four games. He had just seven goals and 15 points over 51 outings last year, and a lower-body injury that sidelined him from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 (a total of 20 games missed) has complicated his first campaign with Vegas. However, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this going now that he's healthy. Olofsson did score 28 goals in 2022-23 and has surpassed the 20-goal milestone three times, so there is some upside here, especially with Vegas currently using him on the second line and first power-play unit.
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At this point, the question isn’t if the situation is bad, it’s just how bad it is. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues are the gold standard for hope. At their worst, they looked like a lottery team, but in the end, they won the Stanley Cup. So how was St. Louis after 25 games? 9-13-3, which amounts to nearly the same record from a points perspective.
So maybe there’s still hope for the Predators, but there’s also a reason why the Blues are such a memorable story: For every 18-19 Blues, there are countless teams that performed poorly over the first two months and simply continued to be bad for the rest of the campaign. Plus, it’s not just about rebounding, it’s the magnitude of the task ahead of Nashville.
In 2023-24, it took 98 points to get a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Let’s say for the sake of argument, 93 points will end up being good enough this year. That would amount to a 36-20-1 record the rest of the way. In terms of points percentage, that’s .640, which is a pace currently exceeded by only six teams. So doable, but it needs to start soon because the longer Nashville is even mediocre, let alone bad, the task only gets harder.
Stamkos spoke about the problem after Friday’s 3-2 overtime loss to Tampa Bay on Friday, arguing that the Predators have too many players who aren’t working hard enough to create offense.
"It's OK to be frustrated because we're not scoring. But you counter that by work ethic and getting into the game in different ways," Stamkos said, per The Tennessean. "If you're not scoring, what else are you doing out there? What else can you do to help your team win? I've just felt like, for whatever reason, in these stretches, we tend to go the other way."
Rather than use that as motivation, the Predators then suffered a 3-2 overtime loss to Minnesota on Saturday. To be fair, the Wild are a great team, it was a close game, and the Predators were playing for the third time in four days. Those are all factors to make the loss more understandable. The trouble is, Nashville isn’t in a position to be content with understandable losses.
Replacing head coach Jim Montgomery with Joe Sacco hasn’t helped the Bruins so far. They’re an okay, but not great 3-2-0 with their new bench boss, giving them an 11-11-3 record overall. That might change next week, though, thanks to a favorable schedule. Boston will host the Red Wings on Tuesday, play in Chicago on Wednesday and then return home to face the Flyers on Saturday.
Whenever there’s a new coach, it’s always a good idea to look for which players have benefited from the change. In the case of the Bruins, though, it’s a bit hard to find offensive winners because the team has continued the offensive struggles that were present under Montgomery. Boston averaged just 2.40 goals per game with Montgomery, and that’s dropped to a mere 2.00 goals per game under Sacco.
Elias Lindholm does have four points across the Bruins’ past five games, which is a step up from his nine points in 20 outings before the Montgomery firing, but take that with a grain of salt because his recent success is propped up by a three-assist showing against the Islanders on Wednesday. Lindholm has also been held off the scoresheet in three of the last five contests, which isn’t exactly confidence inspiring.
Tyler Johnson has recorded his first two assists of the 2024-25 campaign under Sacco, which is interesting, but Sacco also made Johnson a healthy scratch twice across the past five games. Still, I think Johnson is worth keeping an eye on because Boston desperately needs secondary scoring, and that’s a role he can fill.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Boston seems to have at least tightened its game defensively under Sacco, allowing just 1.60 goals per game with the new bench boss compared to 3.45 with Montgomery.
Jeremy Swayman has had a rough campaign with a 6-9-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .892 save percentage in 17 appearances in 2024-25, but he may have turned a corner, stopping 66 of 70 shots (.943 save percentage) across his past three starts. He still won only one of those outings due to a lack of offensive support, but if he can continue to play like he has been recently, then the Bruins will be in a far better position.
The Flames have a respectable 12-9-4 record, but they’ve dropped their last four games, putting them in danger of ruining their relatively positive start to the campaign. The Flames will try to right the ship in home games against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Blues on Thursday. Calgary will conclude the week with a challenging road tilt against the Stars.
Calgary’s recent losing skid has come on the road, which seems to be a theme for the Flames this year. They’re 9-3-0 at home and 3-6-4 outside of the Saddledome. It’s like looking at two different teams. In Calgary, the Flames have averaged 2.83 goals per game and have allowed 2.25 goals per game, but on the road that changes to 2.23 goals per game and 3.54 goals allowed per game.
Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the starkest examples of that home/road split. He leads the team offensively in Calgary with nine points (five goals) in 12 appearances and has just five points (three goals) in 13 road outings. Mikael Backlund is another forward who has fallen into that trap, supplying seven points (three goals) in 12 home games, but just three points (one goal) through 13 road appearances. Meanwhile, Andrei Kuzmenko has a goal and seven points at home, but just two assists on the road.
Nazem Kadri and Connor Zary are two exceptions who have done fine regardless. Kadri has a nine/eight home/road point split while Zary has supplied six points in each category. However, outside of rare cases like that, you might want to avoid using Calgary players on the road until the team shows it can travel better. Fortunately, that won’t be a concern for fantasy managers for the early stages of the upcoming week.
Colorado doesn’t have that stark contrast between home and away -- the Avalanche are mediocre in both cases, resulting in a 13-12-0 record. Colorado has lost its last two contests, but it will continue its quest to emerge from its early season inconsistency during a road stretch that will see the Avalanche in Buffalo on Tuesday, Carolina on Thursday, Detroit on Saturday and New Jersey on Sunday.
Injuries have been an ongoing story for the Avalanche this campaign, and I’ll discuss the latest on that front in a minute, but goaltending has also been part of the problem. Although Alexandar Georgiev has stabilized somewhat, he’s still left plenty to be desired with his 7-6-0 record, 3.33 GAA and .872 save percentage in 15 appearances in 2024-25. The problem Colorado faced was the 24-year-old Justus Annunen didn’t seem capable of stealing the job from him, posting a 6-4-0 record, 3.22 GAA and .872 save percentage across 11 outings.
As a result, Colorado packaged Annunen with a 2025 sixth-round pick Saturday to get Scott Wedgewood from Nashville. Wedgewood has a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage in five appearances this year, so it’s not like anyone holds any illusion that he will enter Colorado and be its savor, but at least he’s a veteran goaltender who has been serviceable in the past in the backup role. If nothing else, Wedgewood has a bigger opportunity to get starts in Colorado behind Georgiev than he did in Nashville behind Juuse Saros.
On the injury front, Miles Wood suffered an upper-body injury recently and is now regarded as month-to-month. Meanwhile, Jonathan Drouin, who made his return from injury Nov. 15, logged just four games before coming back out of the lineup and is now regarded as week-to-week. Defenseman Josh Manson (upper body) is also week-to-week after suffering the injury Friday. The only real silver lining on the injury front is that Ross Colton (foot) has started to skate.
This isn’t the most injured Colorado has been this year, but it’s still not great that Colorado has four players on IR or LTIR (Wood, Colton, Tucker Poolman and Gabriel Landeskog) as well as three more on the sidelines (Mason, Drouin and Oliver Kylington).
John Ludvig, who has logged just five games this year, will probably start playing regularly because of Mason and Kylington’s absences on the blue line. Nikolai Kovalenko will also probably feature semi-regularly on the second line until Drouin is back. At the end of the day, though, not much should be expected of Ludvig or Kovalenko from a fantasy perspective.
The Central Division has been dominated by Winnipeg and Minnesota, but Dallas has been strong too with a 14-8-0 record. The Stars will look to maintain that success next week. They’ll play in Utah on Monday, Los Angeles on Wednesday and Vegas on Friday before concluding the week with a home game against the Flames on Sunday.
Dallas is lucky to have Matt Duchene. After the final three campaigns of his seven-year, $56 million contract were bought out by Nashville (a team which, incidentally, could really use him right now), it made a certain amount of sense for him to ink a one-year, $3 million contract for the 2023-24 season so that he would have a chance to reestablish himself. However, after scoring 25 goals and 65 points across 80 regular-season outings with the Stars in 2023-24, he decided to ink another one-year, $3 million contract for this season.
I have a hard time believing that’s the best he could do, but Dallas is a team that’s capable of competing for the Cup, and signing that massively team-friendly contract has allowed the Stars to ice the best roster they could. For his part, Duchene is thriving in Dallas with 12 goals and 27 points through 22 outings. After registering an assist in a 5-3 win over Colorado on Friday, he’s on a four-game scoring streak (two goals, four assists).
In contrast to Duchene’s success, Roope Hintz has left something to be desired. The 28-year-old forward has nine goals and 14 points through 21 appearances in 2024-25. That puts him on pace to reach the 30-goal milestone for the fourth straight campaign, but Hintz collapse in terms of playmaking has been noticeable. That might be in part due to some bad luck, though. Hintz is on pace for 15 primary assists in 2024-25, which would actually be just a mild drop from his 17 in 2023-24. However, he has only one secondary assist this year after reaching the double digits in that category in each of the previous three campaigns.
Hintz is playing alongside Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, so the assists should come. If his lower point total has led to fantasy managers in your league(s) undervaluing Hintz, then now would be a nice time to buy low.
Robertson is another good buy-low candidate. He has five goals and 13 points through 22 appearances, in large part because of a nine-game stretch from Oct. 26-Nov. 18 in which he had no goals and two assists. The 25-year-old has been inconsistent this campaign, but he has also supplied over 25 goals and 79 points in each of his previous three years, so I have faith that he’s going to start turning things around. One key area to monitor is his performance on the power play. He finished each of the past three campaigns with over 20 points with the man advantage, but he’s been limited to just a goal and three points in that category in 2024-25.
Keep in mind that Robertson missed a good chunk of training camp and didn’t play in the preseason because he was recovering from foot surgery. His old linemate Joe Pavelski is also gone after retiring over the summer. Those might be contributing factors for his sluggish start, but Robertson should still find his rhythm as the campaign progresses.
Florida has won its past three games decisively, outscoring the competition 17-4. The Panthers will take that momentum into Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Florida will then play in Philadelphia on Thursday and host the Sharks on Saturday.
Sam Bennett continues to be a pleasant surprise for the Panthers. He’s been a solid secondary scorer for years, but he’s found another level this season, supplying 12 goals and 23 points through 24 appearances. He’s showing no signs of slowing either, supplying three markers and four points over his past three outings. His 16.2 shooting percentage is a potential warning sign -- his career average is 10.6 -- but he’s also generating assists at a much better rate than normal, so his success might be more than just some good puck luck.
Bennett’s far from the only Panthers forward who has done well recently. Evan Rodrigues has been streaky this campaign and is going through one of his good patches, supplying a goal and three points across his past three games. That gives him six goals and 13 points through 25 outings in 2024-25.
The only major point of concern for Florida thus far has been Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a 3.04 GAA and an .890 save percentage through 17 appearances in 2024-25. While I wouldn’t write off a netminder as accomplished as Bobrovsky over a sluggish start, Spencer Knight has outperformed him thus far with a 2.31 GAA and .911 save percentage across nine outings, so it would be interesting to see if the Panthers shift to a 1A/1B arrangement. That would also help keep the 36-year-old veteran fresh for the playoffs, especially given Bobrovsky’s heavy workload in recent years due to Florida’s back-to-back trips to the finals.
The Panthers rank fifth in terms of goals per game (3.64) while the Islanders are 26th (2.56), but surprisingly, New York is the team with more players who have hit double digits in terms of goals. Sam Reinhart and Bennett have achieved that feat with the Panthers while Kyle Palmieri, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson have each provided 10 markers with the Islanders.
Will that trio be able to save the sinking Islanders, who have lost six of their past eight games? The squad will play in Montreal on Tuesday before returning home for contests against the Kraken on Thursday and the Hurricanes on Saturday. New York will round out the week with a road game in Ottawa on Sunday.
Nelson has been the Islanders’ most successful forward during the squad’s eight-game slump, providing four goals and eight points over that span. Lee and Palmieri have also held their own with six and five points, respectively -- each of them also supplied three markers during that stretch.
Still, the absence of Mathew Barzal (upper body) continues to be noticeable. He hasn’t played since Oct. 30 and isn’t expected to return this week. The other issue is Bo Horvat’s goal-scoring drought has reached 11 games (he has five assists in that span). Maybe Horvat will get better when his usual linemate, Barzal, is healthy. Either way, Horvat’s shooting percentage has dropped to 7.1, well below his career average of 13.4.
Toronto got some good news Saturday with the return of Auston Matthews (upper body) and Matthew Knies (upper body). Both made their presence felt with Matthews supplying two assists while Knies recorded a goal and a helper. Getting Matthews back is especially big for the Maple Leafs, and the sniper will aim to make his presence felt next week with the Maple Leafs scheduled to play at home against Chicago on Monday, Nashville on Wednesday and Washington on Friday. The Maple Leafs will also face the Penguins on the road Saturday.
Getting Knies and Matthews back will likely result in a reduced role for rookie Fraser Minten. The 20-year-old averaged 15:11 of ice time, including 3:32 with the man advantage, over his first three outings from Nov. 20-27, but he dropped to 11:31 on Saturday and wasn’t deployed at all with the man advantage (though Toronto had just one power play in the match).
If Max Domi (lower body) and Bobby McMann (lower body) rejoin the lineup without any other Maple Leafs forwards going down, then Minten might find himself reassigned to the AHL where he can play a bigger role. Still, Minten has shown promise during this NHL stint, supplying a goal and three points across four appearances.
While Minten took advantage of the Maple Leafs’ stretch of injuries, Nicholas Robertson has left plenty to be desired. He did score Saturday, but it was just his second goal and point through 20 outings in 2024-25. Although Robertson reportedly requested a trade over the summer, nothing came of that, and he certainly hasn’t done anything to make himself more appealing to other clubs. He’s still just 23, so it’s too early to write him off, but even as a middle-six secondary scorer, he hasn’t looked great this year. If the Maple Leafs find themselves fully healthy, it’s not clear if there will even be a regular spot for him in the lineup anymore.
Winnipeg enjoyed a stunning 15-1-0 start, but the Jets have perhaps shown some cracks lately, dropping five of their past eight games. We’ll see if they stabilize next week. They’ll play at home against the Blues on Tuesday, play in Buffalo on Thursday, and in Chicago on Saturday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Sunday.
What’s changed for the Jets recently? For starters, their stars haven’t been quite as effective. Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers each provided at least 1.25 points per game across Winnipeg’s opening 16 games and none of them have averaged a point per game since. Nikolaj Ehlers has seen the biggest decline, going from nine goals and 20 points through 16 appearances to five assists and a minus-7 rating over his past eight games.
It's not just the Jets’ top three forwards, though. Winnipeg’s offensive production has been down pretty much across the board. The Jets were averaging an unbelievable 4.56 goals per game through their first 16 games, but Winnipeg’s average has dropped to 2.50 over its past eight contests. We talked about the Jets’ success earlier this month, and at the time I briefly touched on this:
“It is worth noting that Moneypuck ranks Winnipeg 21st in xG/60 with 2.99, so there’s an argument to be made that the Jets have enjoyed good puck luck.”
If we look at where Winnipeg is today, its xG/60 is slightly higher at 3.08. That metric shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but it does suggest that the Jets were significantly overperforming offensively early in the campaign, which makes the fall less shocking. By the same token, Winnipeg is now underperforming, so there’s reason to believe that this will all balance out eventually, and the Jets will finish the campaign as an above average, but not phenomenal scoring team.
Which is okay because Winnipeg’s strength lies in its goaltending more than its forwards. Connor Hellebuyck did have a rough patch from Nov. 12-19 in which he allowed 11 goals on 90 shots (.878 save percentage), but he’s having a fantastic campaign overall with a 15-3-0 record, 2.11 GAA and .928 save percentage in 18 outings. The Jets offense might not be as good as initially advertised, but Hellebuyck should continue to have a season worthy of Vezina Trophy contention.
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If you compare every team since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005-06), you’ll find that the Boston Bruins rank as the best defensively, allowing an average of just 2.55 goals per game. That’s not shocking when you consider that the Bruins have gone from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask to the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman over that period.
Elite goaltending has simply become the norm in Boston, and it didn’t look like it was going to change. Sure, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa for cap reasons, but the 25-year-old Swayman seemed ready to take his place as Boston’s clear No. 1, and yes, the negotiations got tense, resulting in him missing the preseason, but in the end, he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract, ending the saga with a resolution that both sides can be happy with. Except, noone has much reason to be happy with the Bruins right now.
Boston is a middling 8-8-2, a dramatic drop from its 47-20-15 finish in 2023-24, and Swayman has been part of the problem with his 5-6-2 record, 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage in 13 starts. He leads the league in goals allowed (42), and his goals saved above expected is minus-4.6, per Moneypuck, which puts him in 65th place through Thursday’s action -- not exactly the type of return you’d expect from someone with an $8.25 million cap hit.
Maybe missing the preseason put him behind the curve, contributing to his shaky start, but he doesn’t seem to be stabilizing as the campaign goes on. To be fair, he does have his moments, but his good starts have been counterbalanced by disastrous ones, like allowing six goals on 22 shots en route to an 8-2 loss to Carolina on Oct. 31 or surrendering seven goals on 38 shots in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Swayman also just has a lot of uninspired starts sprinkled in there -- nine of his 13 outings have involved him surrendering at least three goals.
Maybe it’s the pressure of the contract getting to him, especially with how much he appeared to have to battle to get that deal. There’s a big mental aspect to goaltending, so it’s not hard to see how a slow start, coupled with the new deal, and perhaps even the absence of his longtime friend and goaltending partner Ullmark, could all snowball to create this outcome. Whatever the case, though, Boston is in waters that have been rare for it since the start of the cap era: They have a problem between the pipes.
Colorado has endured its own goaltending issues, but at least the Avalanche are tied for 10th offensively with 3.47 goals per game and could do even better now that their forward corps is largely healthy. They’re still missing Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Ross Colton (foot), but Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) and Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) are all back, giving them far more options than they’ve had in a while.
This is being written before Friday’s game against Washington, which is set to see the return of Nichushkin, but it looks like the tentative plan is to run two elite lines. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen typically play together, giving the Avalanche one nearly unstoppable unit, but instead, Colorado is slated to break them up, putting MacKinnon with Lehkonen and Drouin while Rantanen will share the ice with Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. If that works out, then it could make things extremely tough on the opposition's defense. It’s a luxury the Avalanche arguably couldn’t afford earlier in the season because the quality of the linemates for MacKinnon and Rantanen wouldn’t have been sufficient to split them, but at this point, it’s something they can experiment with.
It also means Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko are now firmly in the bottom six. There was an opportunity for one or both to show what they could do with greater responsibilities when the team was ravaged by injuries, but neither stepped up. At this stage, it seems reasonable to project that Ivan and Kovalenko won’t have significant fantasy value this year, but at least they’re still okay complimentary pieces for the Avalanche.
All-in-all, Colorado’s offense looks strong at this point. The Avalanche are already on a roll, winning four of their past five games, and Colorado could continue to shine from here.
You can get whiplash going from a conversation about the Avalanche’s offense to Anaheim’s. MacKinnon has 33 points through 17 games by himself. That equals the combined point totals of the Ducks’ top four scorers -- Troy Terry (11 points), Mason McTavish (eight), Leo Carlsson (seven) and Ryan Strome (seven).
The Ducks are consequently unlikely to generate much offense when they play in Dallas on Monday, but Anaheim might have more success in Chicago on Tuesday and when hosting Buffalo on Friday.
Health will be a factor in that. McTavish has missed the Ducks’ past two games because of an upper-body injury, but he’s day-to-day, so there’s a real chance he’ll be fine for next week’s action.
Even with him back, though, the Ducks need help on offense. A resurgence of Trevor Zegras would be the most obvious boost. However, he had just 15 points in 31 contests in 2023-24 and has diminished further to just three points through 15 appearances this season -- a far cry from his back-to-back 60-plus point campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He’s still just 23 years old, so it seems wrong to suggest he’s washed up, but then what is the problem?
First off, his lone goal this campaign was scored on an empty net, so you’d have to go back to April 13 to find the last time he beat an NHL goaltender in a regular-season game. He’s averaging 6.3 shots per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which is down from 8.1 in 2021-22 and 7.2 in 2022-23, so that doesn’t help. Seven of his 27 shots this year have been fired from a high-danger position, which puts him below the league average of 7.9 among forwards. All that’s bad, but not to the extent where he should have literally zero goals against goaltenders.
Moneypuck gives him an xG of 3.6, he has a PDO of 951 along with exactly zero secondary assists and his IPP of 42.9 is leagues below his career average. All that suggests some of his offensive woes are due to poor luck. Still, three points in 15 appearances is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him having a good campaign even if the luck was balanced.
Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there, and there are some indications that he’s been shifting to a more complete game despite his lack of offense, as Patrick Present of The Hockey News recently noted. Plus, he’s still young, and when coupled with him attempting to adjust his game, some growing pains are understandable. Don’t expect this to be a big campaign from him, but also don’t write him off yet.
We talked about Swayman’s woes up top. Perhaps it will help him that the Bruins’ opponents next week rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of goals per game. Boston is set to host the Blue Jackets on Monday and Utah HC on Thursday before playing in Detroit on Saturday.
Swayman is the headline issue for the Bruins, but he isn’t the only one. The forward corps is also leaving something to be desired. We’ve seen better out of David Pastrnak (eight goals and 17 points through 18 games) and Brad Marchand (five goals and 13 points), but both are doing well enough, even when measured against the high standards they’re held to. The problem is no other player on the team has reached double digits in points.
Elias Lindholm, who signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract over the summer, was the Bruins’ big offseason get to solidify the team up the middle. However, he hasn’t been that great. After scoring two goals and five points over his first three games with Boston, Lindholm has been limited to four assists across his past 15 outings. To be fair, he’s known for his two-way game, and his relative CF% and FF% are outstanding at plus-8.8 and plus-12.2, respectively. Still, you’d like to see more scoring out of him when he’s spending almost all of his 5-on-5 time alongside at least one of Pastrnak and Marchand.
Pavel Zacha has left something to be desired too with three goals and seven points through 18 outings after finishing 2023-24 with 59 points. He might be heating up, though. Zacha has two goals and four points through his past four appearances, so perhaps he can carry that momentum into next week, especially given the mediocre nature of Boston’s upcoming competition.
Chicago will host the Ducks and the Panthers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida is a tough team, but the Ducks and the Flyers haven’t looked good so far in 2024-25.
Not that the Blackhawks have impressed either with their 6-10-1 record. Petr Mrazek has largely held his own with a 2.79 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances, which are solid numbers when you consider that Chicago ranks 28th in xGA/60 (3.39), which suggests Mrazek hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates defensively.
They also haven’t helped Mrazek offensively. Chicago is tied for 29th with just 2.41 goals per game, and even Connor Bedard has left something to be desired with three goals and 13 points through 17 appearances. Bedard is on an eight-game goal-scoring slump with four assists in that span, but let’s not be too hard on him. He’s still just 19 years old, so some streaky play is expected, and he has a healthy enough 21 shots during that slump, so eventually he’ll break through.
I’m more disappointed in Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract over the summer to come to Chicago from Carolina and has been primarily used alongside Bedard. However, Teravainen hasn’t been able to generate much of anything in 5-on-5 play with the young star. The 30-year-old has four goals and eight points through 17 appearances with just two of those points (one goal) coming at even strength. Interesting, his 5-on-5 xG is also just one, so the issue isn’t exactly bad puck luck.
Bedard has also been tried with Taylor Hall and/or Tyler Bertuzzi, but significantly less often than Teravainen. Philipp Kurashev has seen significant time alongside Bedard as well, though Kurashev has just three goals and four points through 16 outings. That’s a massive drop from Kurashev’s 54-point showing in 2023-24, and the decline is largely due to a lack of assists.
The line mixing is likely to continue to happen as long as Chicago’s offense remains cold. In the long run, it would be nice to see Kurashev and Bedard rekindle some of their 2023-24 chemistry -- they showed up together on the scoresheet 25 times last season. If we start seeing some of that, then Kurashev would become a good buy-low candidate.
Dallas will start the week by hosting the lowly Ducks and Sharks on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Stars will then travel to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning on Saturday.
Matt Duchene will look to extend his recent success during that stretch. He has a phenomenal eight goals and 17 points across his past 10 appearances, including two goals and five points over his last two games. He’s been seeing time alongside Mason Marchment, who is also on fire with two goals and seven points over his past two outings, so that duo could do a lot of damage, especially against rebuilding squads like Anaheim and San Jose.
At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas could use more out of Roope Hintz. His six goals and 10 points through 15 outings aren’t bad, but it’s below the pace Dallas has come to expect after seeing Hintz record at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of his previous three campaigns. Hintz did endure a four-game scoring drought from Oct. 26-Nov. 7, but there’s a silver lining here because he’s found the back of the net twice over his past three games, so perhaps the worst is over.
The action is also spread out enough that Jake Oettinger might start in all three of those games. He’s 8-3-0 with a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 11 appearances in 2024-25. He’s also coming off two really strong victories, stopping 43 of 46 shots in blowout wins against Pittsburgh and Boston.
The Red Wings will play in San Jose on Monday before hosting the Islanders on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Detroit will be looking to gain some ground after a mediocre 7-7-1 start.
Detroit has to be disappointed with Vladimir Tarasenko, who inked a two-year, $9.5 million contract over the summer but has just two goals and four points through 14 appearances. This one is a bit of a “the chicken or the egg” problem. Tarasenko is averaging just 13:41 of ice time while typically serving on the third line alongside Jonatan Berggren and Marco Kasper. That’s not a recipe for success or the top six role many envisioned when he signed his deal. At the same time, he hasn’t done anything to force himself into a bigger role. From Oct. 22-Nov. 2, he appeared in five games without even recording a single shot.
You’re not going to move up in the lineup with that kind of play. On the plus side, he has logged an assist and seven shots over his past two outings, so maybe we’re witnessing the start of him getting some going. I’m skeptical, but it’s worthy of monitoring.
Detroit could certainly use another source of secondary scoring. The Red Wings rank 28th offensively with just 2.47 goals per game. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have done fine with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively, through 15 appearances and Patrick Kane is holding his own at 35, providing three goals and 10 points. The rest of the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, though, and no one aside from maybe Tarasenko jumps out to me as a struggling forward to watch.
That includes Michael Rasmussen. He was taken with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he has never even reached the 35-point mark and has just two goals and four points in 15 outings in 2024-25. He’s a towering presence, but at the age of 25, I think it’s fair to believe that the offense isn’t coming.
The Oilers will open the week with road games in Montreal on Monday and Ottawa on Tuesday. They’ll then return to Edmonton to host the Wild on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday.
Edmonton had a mixed start to the season in part because of inconsistent offensive production, but it’s okay now: Connor McDavid remembered that he’s Connor McDavid. The superstar has posted three straight multi-point efforts, causing him to jump to six goals and 19 points through 14 appearances despite a weirdly human start in which he recorded three goals and 10 points in his first 11 outings -- good for others, not for him.
If McDavid has found his grove, then Edmonton is in a far better position, but the Oilers do still have some areas of concern. Stuart Skinner is still a mixed bag with a 5-5-1 record, 3.22 GAA and .881 save percentage in 11 outings. You’ll likely remember that Skinner had a terrible start to 2023-24 before turning a corner, and it could be argued that his Nov. 24 25-save shutout over Washington was when everything started working out for him last year. In other words, we’re getting to roughly the same stage of the year, and we’ll have to see if Skinner can once again find his rhythm or if he doesn’t enjoy that same kind of turnaround in 2024-25.
Edmonton’s offseason attempts at deepening the offense also haven’t paid off yet. Jeff Skinner has just three goals and six points while Viktor Arvidsson has two goals and five points. Arvidsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, so we might not see him this week. Meanwhile, Skinner has been relegated to the fourth line recently. Skinner has had a weird career full of amazing highs and significant lows. There’s consequently no guarantee that a turnaround is forthcoming this year, but if he does get another look on Edmonton’s top six, which I think is just a matter of time, then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on.
I like to highlight teams who are set to play four games in a week over those with three or two games on the docket, but there aren’t many examples of that upcoming. San Jose is one of the exceptions. The Sharks’ busy schedule will begin by hosting the Red Wings on Monday. They’ll then play in Dallas on Wednesday and St. Louis on Thursday before returning home to face the Sabres on Saturday.
Naturally, if you’re going to watch Sharks hockey, the player you’ll be most interested in is Macklin Celebrini. Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he was out from Oct. 12-Nov. 2 due to a lower-body injury. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly quiet since, providing two goals Nov. 7 but also being held off the scoresheet entirely in his other four appearances dating back to his Nov. 5 return.
It's too small of a sample size to read too much into it, but Celebrini is a tremendous talent who is averaging 19:25 of ice time and has recorded 20 shots over six outings in 2024-25, so I expect him to start producing at a good pace as the campaign progresses.
In the meantime, Mikael Granlund has done his part. He has seven goals and 18 points in 18 games to lead the Sharks offensively this season. A lot of that was due to him recording five goals and 12 points across seven outings from Oct. 17-28, though. He’s been fine since, but his two goals and five points over his past eight contests are a noticeable decline. There might be some merit to selling him high, but I think his goal-scoring pace, which would lead to him finishing with 32 markers, has actual merit.
He’s never reached the 30-goal milestone before and finished 2023-24 with just 12 goals, but he’s traditionally been a very conservative shooter. That’s changed in a big way this year -- he's averaging a career-high 9.9 shots per 60 minutes, and that includes 14 high-danger shots, which puts him on track for 64, up from 44 last year. His increase in shots also means that his 10.9 shooting percentage isn’t significantly off his career average (10.3) despite his big jump in goals.
Granlund and Celebrini are currently centering different lines, but they share the ice on the power play. Although Sharks rank 23rd in terms of power-play percentage (16.4), that might improve as Celebrini gets going, which would also benefit Granlund.
Utah HC is another squad with four games on the schedule next week. The club will host the Capitals on Monday before a road trip that will place Utah HC in Boston on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.
Utah has been an interesting team. It got off to a 3-0-0 start fueled by some great offensive performances, but the scoring has cooled, and the club is now 7-6-3.
One positive is Mikhail Sergachev has messed well with his new team after being dealt from Tampa Bay in June. Sergachev has three goals and 11 points in 16 outings in 2024-25 while averaging 25:35 of ice time -- that'll be a career high if he maintains it for the full campaign. He also has a big power-play role and has collected three points (one goal) with the man advantage. It’s reasonable to project he’ll surpass the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career as long as he stays healthy.
Up front, Clayton Keller (six goals, 14 points), Dylan Guenther (seven goals, 13 points), Nick Schmaltz (12 assists) and Logan Cooley (two goals, 11 points) have been leading the charge, but none of them are especially hot right now. Nick Bjugstad is an interesting forward, though. He’s capable of being a solid secondary scorer, but he averaged just 13:20 of ice time this season, down from 17:27 in 2023-24. He did make his mark Wednesday, though, scoring his first two goals of the campaign to lead Utah to a 4-1 victory over Carolina. Bjugstad is getting a chance to play alongside Keller and Schmaltz, so he might be able to build off that strong showing.
That would help Utah, but what the club needs more than anything is reliability between the pipes. Although Connor Ingram has a respectable 6-3-3 record, his 3.40 GAA and .879 aren’t inspiring. Meanwhile, Karel Vejmelka is just 1-3-0, but he has a 2.37 GAA and a .926 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vejmelka get more work, perhaps leading to him starting in at least two of Utah’s games next week.
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With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci gone, Boston was expected to see a noteworthy decline in 2023-24, and while the Bruins did indeed have a drop off from their stunning 65-12-5 campaign in 2022-23, they still posted a dominant 47-20-15 record last year. That was thanks in no small part to the overwhelming goaltending of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, who helped the team tie for fifth defensively (2.70 goals allowed per game), and another stellar offensive showing from David Pastrnak, who provided 47 goals and 110 points across 82 regular-season contests. In the playoffs, Boston managed to eke out a first-round seven-game victory over the Maple Leafs in the first round, but for the second straight year, Boston’s path was ended by the Panthers.
WHAT’S CHANGED? That goaltending duo that served Boston so well over the past three seasons is over. With just one season remaining on his team-friendly four-year, $20 million contract, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa in exchange for enforcer Mark Kastelic, the 2024 No. 25 draft pick (Dean Letourneau) and a veteran goalie with a mixed record in Joonas Korpisalo. They also lost middle-six forward Jake DeBrusk to free agency. It wasn’t all subtraction, though. Boston made some big splashes on the unrestricted free agent market by inking defensive defenceman Nikita Zadorov and two-way center Elias Lindholm to long-term contracts.
WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Adding Lindholm goes a long way toward solidifying Boston’s center group, which was a bit of a weakness of theirs last year. Ideally, he’ll gel with either Pastrnak or Brad Marchand after Lindholm was limited to just 44 points last season due in large part to him not quite working out following a trade from Calgary to Vancouver. Another good season out of Marchand, who is now 36, is also important for the Bruins’ attack. However, the most important thing is Boston needs either Korpisalo to be a solid contributor or for Swayman to play significantly more than his previous career high of 43 games. The former might be a tall order, because…
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Korpisalo is coming off a disastrous campaign in which he posted a 3.27 GAA and an .890 save percentage across 55 contests with Ottawa. Some will blame playing for the mediocre Senators for that and expect him to improve with a contender like Boston. That argument is popular, but Ottawa’s xGA/60 last season was a respectable 2.97, and even above that of Boston’s 3.03, which suggests that the Senators’ skaters were playing responsible hockey and instead let down by their goaltenders, so the idea that playing for a better squad might help Korpisalo is on a shaky foundation. Outside of that, there are the concerns about Marchand’s age, and what to expect from Lindholm after his lukewarm showing in Vancouver.
TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Poitras only played 33 games with Boston in 2023-24 due to injury, but the rookie showed promise when healthy with five goals and 15 points. The addition of Lindholm pretty much locks Poitras out of a top six spot, so he’ll instead likely start the campaign as the third-line center. That’s a fair role for him and coupled with sprinkling of power-play ice time, he should prove to be a solid contributor for Boston this year.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 51 | 56 | 107 | 1.30 |
One of the premier goal scorers in the game, Pastrnak has buried 148 goals in 236 games across the past three seasons, which is tied for second with Leon Draisaitl, behind only Auston Matthews. His 4.67 shots on goal per game in those three seasons also ranks second, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon. Pastrnak is a stellar play driver, and the Bruins have outscored opponents by more than 20 goals with Pastrnak on the ice during five-on-five play in four of the past five seasons. The only exception was the 2020-2021 season, which was shortened by COVID, and in that case, the Bruins still outscored opponents by 15 with Pastrnak on the ice. On a Bruins team that is full of hard-working and smart players, Pastrnak stands out for bringing game-breaking skill to the table in a way that few others can. He has a lethal wrist shot that he can use to score from the top of the circles, especially if he is given time to step into the shot. Although Pastrnak does play an overly physical game, he has good size and is happy to use it to protect the puck so that he can create a more dangerous scoring chance. That Pastrnak continued to be so productive, even after Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired, shows just how great he really is, able to produce essentially no matter who is dishing him the puck. That puts him in rare company and Pastrnak ought to be expected to score 45-50 goals and 100-plus points in 2024-2025.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 25 | 45 | 70 | 0.85 |
After scoring a career-high 82 points with the Calgary Flames in 2021-2022, Lindholm saw his production fall off to 64 points in 2022-2023 then 44 points last season. Inconsistency was an issue for him last season, especially after getting traded to Vancouaver, where he struggled with just 12 points in 26 games but then he showed up in the playoffs with 10 points in 13 games. At his best, he looks like a solid No. 1 centre who can play effectively at both ends of the rink. When he is not at his best, Lindholm is not generating enough offence, and that can cause challenges throughout the lineup. Lindholm was a runner-up in Selke Trophy voting in 2021-2022, so he has credentials as a two-way performer, but he has not been able to approach those levels, either offensively or defensively, since. In Boston, Lindholm should have a chance to play with the best Bruins forwards and that should not only give him a chance to resurrect his offensive game, but also to deliver strong possession numbers because that has generally been a hallmark of Boston’s top forwards forever. Lindholm is excellent on faceoffs, too, winning 56 percent of his draws across the past two seasons. Looking at the 2024-2025 season, Lindholm should be expected to score 20-25 goals and 55-60 points in his first season for the Bruins.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 28 | 41 | 69 | 0.84 |
Renowned for on-ice behaviour that can be deemed questionable, or worse, 36-year-old Marchand remains highly productive, even if that can sometimes get overshadowed by his antics. He has recorded 67 points in back-to-back seasons, making it eight consecutive seasons that he has reached that threshold. He also recorded a career-high 115 hits in 2023-2024. For years, Marchand has put up elite possession numbers, which was not a surprise when he was playing with Bergeron, but last season was Marchand’s first season falling below 50 percent Corsi, even though he was among the Bruins’ leaders. He remains a productive player at 36-years old and it becomes a delicate balance for players at this stage of their career. At some point, the production tails off, and Marchand’s is down from his peak performance, but he is a driven and competitive player, who does not look like he is going to drop off dramatically. What would affect Marchand’s production is how much he ends up playing with Pastrnak, who has the ability to elevate the production of his linemates. Considering his recent production, Marchand ought to still be able to produce 25 goals and 65 points, which is rare at his age. There were five players over the age of 35 last season that finished with 65 or more points: Sidney Crosby (94), Anze Kopitar (70), Evgeni Malkin (67), Joe Pavelski (67), and Alex Ovechkin (65).
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 23 | 35 | 58 | 0.71 |
With Bergeron and Krejci retiring, Coyle was the Bruins centre who stepped up the most and he delivered career highs with 25 goals and 60 points while playing a career-high 18:04 per game. He also scored on a career-high 17.0 percent of his shots on goal, so a lot was going well for Coyle last season. Coyle is physically strong and can win puck battles and uses his size to be an effective net-front presence. The majority of Coyle’s 25 goals last season came from in-close, which is fine because he is a strong skater and consistently puts himself in that position and he also has good hands that allow him to make quick moves in-tight to create scoring chances. After the holiday break, Coyle went on a tear, contributing 24 points in 19 games but also managed just one goal and five points in 13 playoff games. While the counting stats were strong for Coyle last season, he had a 45.0 percent Corsi, and 47.4 percent of on-ice expected goals, neither of which represent the kind of play-driving numbers that the Bruins need from a top centre. Coyle did play a lot with Marchand in 2023-2024 so if he has that opportunity again, his offensive output should still be solid, along the lines of 15-20 goals and 45-50 points.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 18 | 34 | 52 | 0.63 |
In the two seasons since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, Zacha has set new career highs for points, hitting 59 in 78 games last season. He logged a career-high 18:06 per game and won a career-best 54.8 percent of his faceoffs. Zacha has been riding wildly high percentages in two seasons with the Bruins (104.8 PDO), and the Bruins have outscored opponents 121-72 during five-on-five play with Zacha on the ice. That does not quite fit with someone who has been below 50 percent in terms of goals and expected goals during five-on-five play. Zacha does provide versatility, able to play both wing and centre as well as moving up and down the lineup. His most common linemates last season were Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, and Danton Heinen, so Zacha is pretty much a plug-n-play option for Boston. He is a smart player who gets himself into good position to create chances. The challenge for Zacha is to be more aggressive shooting the puck. He scores in a variety of ways, so it’s not like he can only generate offence in one way, but even with more ice time in Boston, he is averaging less than two shots on goal per game, and it is difficult to maintain consistent offensive production with such a low shot rate. With the addition of Elias Lindholm in free agency, there is some uncertainty when it pertains to Zacha’s role. He could very well play on Boston’s top line, or he could move into the middle six somewhere. In any case, it’s fair to expect 20 goals and 50 points from Zacha in 2024-2025.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 17 | 19 | 36 | 0.46 |
The 26-year-old power forward has made steady consistent progress in his career, reaching career highs in goals (18), assists (22), and points (40) last season. When he first entered the league, he was little more than a fourth-line bruiser, eagerly hitting and fighting to earn his spot. He delivered a career-high 204 hits last season, so Frederic is still capable of making his presence felt on the ice, but his ice time climbed to 13:45 per game and he had a more well-rounded contribution. He may not be climbing too much higher in the lineup, because his offensive skills are not ideal for a top six role, for example, but there is nothing wrong with being a third-line player who can contribute offensively and provide a physical presence. In fact, players who bring physicality like Frederic are in demand around the league. He has been dependent on high percentages in the past couple of seasons, which makes him a prime candidate for regression, so it is not likely that he will exceed last season’s totals. However, 15 goals and 35 points, with perhaps another 200 hits, does give Frederic some appeal for fantasy managers in deep leagues.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 0.57 |
Signed as a free agent by the Bruins after the Kraken did not give him a qualifying offer last summer, Geekie stepped into a bigger role with Boston and set career highs in goals (17), assists (22), and points (39), while playing a career-high 15:25 per game. He also recorded a career-best 137 hits. At 6-foot-3, Geekie has size and speed, but now appears to have gained confidence when it comes to making plays offensively. Among Bruins skaters to play at least 1000 five-on-five minutes, only David Pastrnak and Jake DeBrusk had higher rates of on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes. Geekie does get power play time, as 12 of his 39 points last season came with the man advantage. This is not to suggest that Geekie should be climbing further up the depth chart. Based on his results to this point in his career, the 26-year-old should be a third-line player for Boston and continue to make a solid contribution at both ends of the ice. Given his jump forward last season, there is a new normal for Geekie, one that puts him consistently in a top nine role. As a result, it’s fair to expect 12-15 goals and 35 points in 2024-2025.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 71 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 0.46 |
Only 19 years old at the start of last season, Poitras was a surprise to make the team out of training camp and he had 15 points in his first 28 games before falling down the depth chart and going scoreless in five games with limited ice time before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Poitras has good speed, sound instincts, and soft hands that serve him well around the net. Provided that he is healthy again, Poitras should have a spot in Boston’s top nine, which will give him an opportunity to contribute, though it could be challenging for the young centre to move up the depth chart in 2024-2025. Although his season was shortened by injury, Poitras showed enough to be excited about his potential. The Bruins controlled 54.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Poitras on the ice. James van Riemsdyk was the only Bruins player to play more than 300 five-on-five minutes to rank higher. As a young player, Poitras also has so much room to improve. He won 43.7 percent of his faceoffs as a rookie and generated only 1.21 shots on goal per game, which is far too low to sustain consistent offensive production. It would be reasonable to anticipate Poitras contributing 35 points this season, and he has potential for more if he somehow finds his way to a higher slot on the depth chart.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 7 | 35 | 42 | 0.55 |
One of the best all-around defencemen in the game, McAvoy tends not to get full credit for his play because his point totals are not as gaudy as some of the other top blueliners. Nevertheless, McAvoy continues to drive play in the right direction and has never had a season where the Bruins have been less than +10 against the opposition during five-on-five play with him on the ice. H has finished in the top five of Norris Trophy voting twice, though his defensive metrics like shots and expected goals against have climbed a little since then, knocking him further out of the race. McAvoy is a strong puckhandler and passer who is not at all shy about playing a physical game. He finished last season with matching career highs of 159 hits and 159 blocked shots. McAvoy recorded 34 even-strength points in 2023-2024, which left him tied for 21st among defencemen with Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin. McAvoy is still Boston’s No. 1 option on the point, and he quarterbacks the top power play unit, so it is not like he is left without opportunities to produce points. A fair expectation for 2024-2025 would have McAvoy contributing 10 goals and 50 points, with room for some upside if his power play numbers start to click.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 4 | 21 | 25 | 0.32 |
After finishing with a career-high 53 points and finishing fourth in Norris Trophy voting in 2022-2023, Lindholm dropped to three goals and 26 points last season. In the 163 games that Lindholm has played with the Bruins, Boston has outscored the opposition by 61 goals during five-on-five play. This while starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Lindholm has good size and is an excellent skater, which allows him to attack offensively and quickly shut down opportunities on the defensive end. Lindholm appears to have the talent to challenge for Norris Trophies, but that is only going to happen when he is putting up numbers offensively and that is unlikely since he has surpassed 35 points in a season just once in his career. Last season, Lindholm’s shot rate dropped to 1.36 per game, the lowest mark of his career. If he is going to contribute offensively, launching more pucks at the opposing net is likely to help. While there are clear limitations to Lindholm’s offensive production, especially if he loses second unit power play time, he can go on streaks, too. Around midseason, he recorded 12 assists in a 15-game span. That kind of burst gives him a higher floor and Lindholm should still be capable of delivering 30-35 points for the Bruins.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 0.34 |
A mammoth physical presence on the blueline, Zadorov is listed at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds, and he is not shy about using that size to make his mark on the game. He racked up a career-high 125 penalty minutes last season while delivering 177 hits, the seventh consecutive season that he finished with more than 170 hits. That ability to affect the game with size and aggressiveness is what made Zadorov in demand as a free agent, but it should be noted that he has never played 20 minutes per game for a full season in the National Hockey League. Over the course of his career, Zadorov’s possession numbers have tended to be slightly positive, and it’s enough to consider him a reliable contributor in that role, without necessarily wanting to feed him big minutes. In Boston, He might see a little more ice time, but there is a limit to what can be reasonably expected of him. Zadorov reached the 20-point plateau last season for the third straight season, then kicked it up a notch in the playoffs, scoring four goals and eight points in 13 games. It’s not fair to expect him to keep that pace over the long haul but that little sample, along with the 14 goals Zadorov scored in 2022-2023 suggests that there is some latent offensive ability that can be brought to the forefront from time to time. Zadorov’s fantasy appeal will lie in banger leagues where he delivers hits and penalty minutes, but he should be able to chip in 20-25 points in his first season with the Bruins.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 75 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 0.29 |
The rangy 6-foot-5 blueliner made his NHL debut last season and flashed potential that he could become a valuable contributor on the Boston blueline for years to come. A second-round pick in 2020, Lohrei played a couple of seasons at Ohio State and a total of 29 AHL (regular season plus playoff) games before getting called up to the Big Bruins. His results in 41 games were relatively uneven. He scored 13 points and, among the seven defencemen that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes for the Bruins last season, Lohrei ranked fifth in Corsi percentage (45.7 percent) and sixth in expected goals percentage (46.8 percent). That suggests he may be worth a longer look but hardly assures him of success at this level. In the playoffs, though, Lohrei contributed four points in 11 games and ranked second among Boston defencemen in Corsi percentage (48.2 percent) and fourth in expected goals percentage (53.9 percent). That postseason showing added a dose of optimism to Lohrei’s future as he and McAvoy started to show progress as defence partners. Lohrei does possess intriguing puck skills for such a big guy, skates well and uses his reach effectively, so the 2024-2025 season should be about securing his full-time spot on the Boston blueline. He is one of Boston’s more capable puckhandling defencemen, so 25 points is a reasonable expectation.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0.14 |
Acquired from Columbus at the trade deadline, Peeke has an opportunity for a fresh start in Boston. In the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, he was one of four defencemen to record both 350 hits and 350 blocked shots across those two seasons. (Brayden McNabb, Jacob Trouba, and Moritz Seider were the others.) Peeke is a warrior, a 6-foot-3 defenceman who does not hesitate to lay his body on the line, but the Blue Jackets cut his ice time by more than five minutes per game last season and made him a frequent healthy scratch. In Boston, Peeke was reasonably effective in the regular season, with the Bruins managing 52.7 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with him on the ice. He was not as effective in the postseason and missed time with a broken finger, but there is a reasonable expectation for him to fit as a physical third-pair defender who can kill penalties. He has never had a major offensive impact and that doesn’t figure to change. Still, there might be fantasy appeal for managers in deep banger leagues that would appreciate 150-plus hits and blocked shots to go with maybe 15 points.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 59 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0.912 | 2.60 |
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 23 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.302 | 2.88 |
It was the fault of neither Jeremy Swayman nor Linus Ullmark that the Boston Bruins once again bowed out early from the Stanley Cup chase this past spring. Nevertheless, the Bruins - perennially up against the salary cap and sitting on a wealth of goaltending talent - opted to make their biggest move of the offseason in net, sending Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators in a swap that brought a struggling Joonas Korpisalo into the fold to partner up with Swayman come October.
Korpisalo looked particularly vulnerable behind the Ottawa Senators during his 2023-24 campaign. He was goaded into moving out of position by opponents whenever the defensive line in front of him suffered any kind of breakdown, leaving him with an abysmal stat line and a fresh host of bad habits to pack up with him in his move to TD Garden. Luckily, he'll enter a much calmer environment in Boston with far less pressure on him specifically; the crease is now Swayman's primary domain, and the Bruins should see his workload uptick enough to possibly even give him that long-awaited attention in the Vezina conversation. Even during a season in which Boston seemed to struggle at times with re-establishing their identity post-Patrice Bergeron, Swayman's statistical proficiency and ability to settle into a good rhythm even after a bad goal or game served as a calming presence throughout the year. It feels a little surprising that the Bruins are sticking with Korpisalo as their number two, but ultimately the team made a strong statement with that choice: this is Jeremy Swayman's starting gig.
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The battle for the second seed in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, along with the third seed in the Metropolitan Division could go down to the wire.
The third spot in the Metro is held by Philadelphia (36-29-11, 83 points), which has seemed destined to make the playoffs for a while. However, the Flyers have fallen on tough times, going 2-5-3 over their last 10 games, which has put them in a vulnerable position. To make matters worse, the Flyers have a 17-13-7 away record, and their next four contests are on the road. That might make it tough for Philadelphia to maintain its playoff hold.
Meanwhile, the Islanders (34-27-15, 83 points) occupy the second wild-card spot. It’s been a weird journey for New York, which seemed to end its playoff push with a six-game losing streak from March 11-21, only to rebound with a 5-2-0 run since. The Islanders do have a somewhat tough schedule for the remainder of the season, including two remaining games against the Rangers, but they’re at least in charge of their destiny.
Washington (36-29-10, 82 points) and Detroit (37-30-8, 82 points) have lost ground to the Islanders, but are still very much in the hunt. The Red Wings have won just four of their last 16 games, but Detroit got a badly needed two points on the road against Tampa Bay on Monday, so that’s something the Red Wings can potentially build off. Kane is doing his best to guide Detroit forward with five goals and 11 points across his past 10 games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran continue to come up clutch down the final stretch.
Speaking of aging stars trying to push their team into the playoffs, Sidney Crosby has supplied an unreal seven goals and 20 points over his past 12 contests. Pittsburgh (35-10-11, 81 points) was written out of the playoff race a while ago, but after a 5-0-2 stretch, the Penguins are back in the conversation. Importantly, the Penguins have two potential paths between the third Metropolitan Division seed and the second wild-card spot.
Pittsburgh still has an uphill battle, in part due to its difficult schedule. Its remaining games are against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Nashville and the Islanders -- all teams either in a playoff spot or in the postseason hunt. Still, what a story it would be if Crosby led the Penguins into the playoffs even after they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina at the deadline.
The Coyotes will be on the road this week, playing in Seattle on Tuesday, Vancouver on Wednesday, Edmonton on Friday and Calgary on Sunday. It’s a difficult schedule, but there aren’t a lot of teams featuring in four contests this week, so Arizona is still worthy of highlighting.
Although Arizona will miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season, some of the Coyotes’ younger players are giving the fans reason to be optimistic about the future. Josh Doan, son of former Coyotes captain Shane Doan, made his NHL debut March 26 and has already accumulated two goals and five points across four contests. The 22-year-old Doan also looked good in AHL Tucson this year, providing 26 goals and 46 points in 62 outings. He’ll be a rookie worth watching next season, though, despite his hot start, I wouldn’t peg him as one of the early favorites to compete for the Calder Trophy.
If he ends up having a rookie campaign like Logan Cooley has, I think the Coyotes would be pleased with that. Cooley hasn’t made headlines in his first season, but the 19-year-old has had his moments, providing 17 goals and 39 points through 75 outings. The highlight so far has been his hat trick against Nashville, which he recorded on March 28. He also has six goals and nine points over his past nine appearances.
Matias Maccelli is also part of the Coyotes’ long-term plans. The 23-year-old has 14 goals and 51 points in 75 outings in 2023-24. Not a bad output for a player who will come with a $3,425,000 annual cap hit through 2025-26, especially given that he still has room to grow. Maccelli has looked especially good recently, supplying three goals and five points over his past four outings.
The Flames will start the week with a game in San Jose on Thursday before visiting Los Angeles on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. They’ll conclude the week with a home contest versus the Coyotes. Among those adversaries, the Kings are the only ones in a playoff position.
It’s still too early to pass final judgment on the trade that sent Elias Lindholm from Calgary to Vancouver, but so far it’s looking like a potential steal for the Flames. Not only did the Flames get pieces that might help them in the future, including a 2024 first-round pick, but while Lindholm, who presently has a wrist injury, has underwhelmed with Vancouver when healthy, Andrei Kuzmenko has settled in nicely with the Flames.
Kuzmenko’s provided four goals and seven points in his past four outings. He still has just 17 goals and 36 points in 65 outings between Vancouver and Calgary in 2023-24, which is a steep departure from his 74-point showing last season, but clearly, he still has offensive abilities. He’ll make for an interesting late-round gamble in fantasy drafts next season given his high-risk, high-reward status.
Kuzmenko’s not the only Flames player who is red hot. There’s also defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, who has an incredible three goals and eight points in his past five appearances. That brings him up to 19 goals and 48 points along with 47 PIM, 179 hits and 189 blocks in 75 appearances in 2023-24. Calgary traded away defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev before the deadline, but Weegar will remain with the Flames as their headline blueliner after inking an eight-year, $50 million contract back in October of 2022. That deal runs through 2030-31.
Calgary also made a long-term commitment to Nazem Kadri, who is signed through 2028-29 at a $7 million annual cap hit. That contract is questionable, especially because Kadri is already 33 years old, but to his credit, he’s been productive this campaign with 24 goals and 65 points in 75 outings. Based on his recent play -- Kadri has a goal and six points over his last five games -- it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach the 70-point mark for the second time in his career.
The Panthers have just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests and none of their adversaries will be making the playoffs. Florida will host the Senators on Tuesday, the Blue Jackets on Thursday and the Sabres on Saturday.
Florida has an eye toward the playoffs, but in the meantime, the squad will move forward without Aaron Ekblad (undisclosed) and Carter Verhaeghe (upper body), who both might be done for what’s left of the regular season.
Ekblad’s injury resulted in Josh Mahura drawing back into the lineup Thursday. Mahura registered an assist in 15:28 of ice time in that contest, bringing him up to nine assists in 27 outings this season. Mahura will probably play regularly for the remainder of the season. He doesn’t do enough offensively to make him worth using in standard fantasy leagues, but he does have some utility in formats that value PIM, hits and blocks -- the 25-year-old has 18, 36 and 24, respectively, in those categories.
Carter Verhaeghe’s absence has opened the door for Nick Cousins to play alongside Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. Although Cousins isn’t a major offensive contributor -- he has just six goals and 12 points across 64 contests this season -- those are pretty much ideal linemates. Cousins contributed a goal and an assist versus Ottawa on Thursday with Tkachuk and Bennett providing the assists on his marker.
The loss of offense caused by Verhaeghe’s injury might also be partially mitigated by Aleksander Barkov’s amazing play of late. The 28-year-old Barkov dealt with his own health issues recently, missing three straight contests from March 21-24, but he’s supplied four goals and nine points in six outings since returning from that undisclosed injury.
Like the Panthers, LA has just three games scheduled next week, but the competition is favorable. The Kings will play in Anaheim on Tuesday before hosting the Flames on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday.
Danault has missed the Kings’ past four games, but the injury doesn’t sound major. Coach Jim Hiller described Danault’s chances of returning last Monday as “50/50,” per Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider. He didn’t end up playing in that contest, but perhaps he’ll be available at some point next week. The only X-Factor is that LA has pretty much secured its playoff berth at this point, and while the Kings are still battling for playoff positioning, it might still make more sense to allow Danault to rest and be as close to 100 percent as possible during the playoffs rather than risk rushing him back.
In the meantime, Blake Lizotte is playing a bigger role than normal. He’s averaged 16:31 of ice time during Danault’s absence, compared to just 11:35 overall in 2023-24. Look for Lizotte to shift back to his typical supporting role once Danault does return. The injury has also created an opening for Akil Thomas to get his first taste of NHL action. The 24-year-old has averaged just 6:18 over his first two contests, but he still has managed to record a goal and four points in that span. Thomas has been solid this campaign with AHL Ontario, providing 22 goals and 43 points in 61 outings, and it would be interesting to see what he could do at the NHL level if given a bigger role. If nothing else, Thomas will be someone to keep an eye on during training camp.
The two upcoming games against the Ducks, who rank 30th offensively with 2.45 goals per game, should be a great opportunity to start goaltender Cam Talbot or David Rittich, depending on who is deployed. Talbot, who has a 24-18-6 record, 2.47 GAA and .915 save percentage across 49 contests, seems set to serve as the Kings’ starter in the playoffs. However, Rittich has done well this campaign with a 12-6-3 record, 2.21 GAA and .919 save percentage in 23 games, and both goaltenders are likely to be utilized in the final days of the season as LA looks to keep both of them fresh.
Seattle will begin the week at home with contests against the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. The Kraken will then visit Dallas on Saturday and St. Louis on Sunday. Dallas is the only team on that list in a playoff position.
The Kraken will miss the postseason, but if there’s a silver lining, it’s that Joey Daccord has proven to be a strong goaltender for them. He’s posted an 18-16-11 record, 2.42 GAA and .918 save percentage in 47 outings in 2023-24. Daccord will remain with the Kraken next year with an affordable $1.2 million cap hit, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he proves to be the clear starter in 2024-25 ahead of Philipp Grubauer, who is in danger of finishing with a save percentage below .900 for the third straight campaign -- he's 12-14-2 with a 2.97 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 32 appearances.
Rather than goaltending, offense has been Seattle’s failing this year. The Kraken rank 29th with 2.61 goals per game. Jared McCann has arguably been part of the problem. Sure, he does lead the team with 28 goals and 60 points in 74 outings, but that still marks a significant decline from his 40-goal showing in 2022-23. For what it’s worth, though, he’s finishing the campaign strong, providing a goal and six points in his last five appearances.
Matty Beniers has seen a much steeper decline. He had 24 goals and 57 points in 80 outings as a rookie but has gone through a sophomore slump, contributing 13 goals and 33 points across 70 appearances. Beniers is partially salvaging the campaign late, collecting three goals and five points across his past five outings.
The Lightning will open the week by hosting the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Senators on Thursday. Those are two favorable matchups against teams near the bottom of the league’s standings. Tampa Bay’s road contest against Washington on Saturday might be difficult, though, especially as the Capitals fight to earn a wild-card spot.
Of course, when it comes to the Lightning, the biggest question is if Nikita Kucherov will win the Art Ross Trophy and thus bolster his bid for the Hart. Kucherov has 43 goals and 133 points in 75 outings, giving him a three-point edge over Nathan MacKinnon (48 goals, 82 assists) and a six-point lead over Connor McDavid (29 goals, 97 assists). Kucherov has built that advantage by accumulating an incredible nine points (one goal) over his past four appearances. He’ll likely need a strong finish to maintain his edge over MacKinnon and McDavid, but that’s certainly within his power.
That spectacle might mask a growing injury problem for Tampa Bay. The squad was already missing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev (leg) along with forwards Tanner Jeannot (upper body) and Logan Brown (undisclosed) going into Thursday’s contest against Montreal, and Brandon Hagel (undisclosed) as well as Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) were hurt during the Lightning’s 7-4 victory. It’s not clear yet how long Hagel or Cirelli will be out for, but we might see Conor Sheary draw back into the lineup.
Although Sheary has just three goals and 13 points in 52 games this season, those numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt because he’s averaged just 10:54 of ice time. With mounting injuries, Sheary might be utilized in a top-nine role, which should lead to a meaningful uptick in offensive production. Although Sheary has never been able to replicate his 53-point showing with Pittsburgh in 2016-17, he can at least be a decent middle-six forward when given the chance.
The Lightning might also lean on Nick Paul more going down the stretch. The 29-year-old has provided three goals over his past two games, elevating him to 22 markers and 42 points in 76 outings in 2023-24.
Toronto has a packed schedule next week, starting with a home contest against Pittsburgh on Monday. The Maple Leafs will then play in New Jersey on Tuesday before hosting the Devils on Thursday and will conclude the week with a home tilt versus the Red Wings.
As is the case with Tampa Bay, a single player’s pursuit of the Hart Trophy, not to mention tremendous milestones, is the center of attention in Toronto. Auston Matthews has managed eight goals and 15 points over his past eight outings, bringing him up to 63 markers and 99 points in 74 contests this season. His 63 goals are tied for 27th on the all-time single-season list, and Matthews has an outside chance of becoming just the 10th player in NHL history and the first since 1992-93 to reach the 70-goal milestone. As it is, Matthews is the first player of the salary cap era to score at least 60 goals on two occasions.
Matthews’ recent success is all the more impressive because he hasn’t had Mitchell Marner (ankle) to work off. Marner hasn’t been in the lineup since March 7, but he might make his return this Saturday versus Montreal. Interestingly, rather than plug Marner back into his typical role alongside Matthews, he’s instead projected to serve alongside Bobby McMann and John Tavares in his return. Matthews would then play alongside Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi while William Nylander would work with Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg. There’s some logic in spreading out their talent like that, especially ahead of the playoffs. Teams that can roll out three effective scoring lines tend to go far, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marner end up back with Matthews before long.
Outside of Matthews, the Leafs’ hottest forward recently has arguably been Knies. While the rookie has left something to be desired with his 13 goals and 33 points in 73 contests this season, he has supplied a goal and five points over his last five outings. Bertuzzi has also been a standout performer lately, scoring four goals over his past five appearances.
The Golden Knights will open the week on the road with contests in Vancouver on Monday and Edmonton on Wednesday. The Golden Knights will then return home to host the Wild on Friday and the Avalanche on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule, but Vegas is getting highlighted anyway because there weren’t that many teams with four games on the docket.
Tomas Hertl (knee) hasn’t made his Golden Knights debut yet, but he seems to be drawing close to it, so perhaps Vegas will get its first game with the 30-year-old this coming week. He had 15 goals and 34 points in 48 games with the lowly Sharks before being dealt to Vegas on March 8. Hertl’s likely to see his playing time go down somewhat with Vegas -- he averaged 20:54 of ice time in San Jose -- but he’ll be working with much better players, so his production might still rise. Keep an eye on how Vegas utilizes him during the final games of the season because he has the potential to do very well in playoff leagues.
While Vegas hasn’t reaped the rewards of acquiring Hertl yet, Anthony Mantha is already having an impact. Acquired from Washington on March 5, Mantha got off to a slow start with just a goal over his first seven Vegas contests, but he’s hit his stride while providing seven points (one marker) over his past six appearances. The 29-year-old is serving in a middle-six capacity and has seen time recently alongside William Karlsson.
Sticking with Karlsson, who has 26 goals and 53 points in 63 games, would be advantageous for Mantha. The 31-year-old Karlsson has also been red hot recently, collecting two tallies and seven points over his last five outings.
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