Flyers – McKeen's Hockey

NHL playoff pool golden rules

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:01:33 +0000

Fantasy season has come to an end with the regular season’s last hurrah on Sunday... or has it?

Some of you are probably getting ready for a playoff pool with buddies. If so, you must be aware that the keys to winning post-season pools vary greatly from the strategy you may use during your pre-season draft. That is why I present to you my Playoff Pool Golden Rules, along with some bold predictions that could help give you the edge in what is sure to be a highly UN-predictable 2014 playoff run.

GOLDEN RULES

1- Know the format: Learn the scoring system used in your pool. Are goals more valuable than assists? Are there other stats than points tabulated? How much are goalie wins and shutouts worth? Are defensemen points scored the same as forwards? Knowing the format is the first step in elaborating the proper draft strategy. Make projections according to your personal playoff brackets.

2- Follow your bracket logic: This is where the main difference between regular season and playoff draft strategy lies. Spreading your roster throughout many NHL teams is usually a sound tactic during the regular season, but for a playoff pool the only way you can expect to win is to limit the core of your roster to three or four teams you believe will make a solid run (Conference Finals). If your roster limit is 10, I would suggest to pick at least 7 of your assets from your projected final-four. A spread-out roster is automatic doom as too many of your picks could end up being early exits. Go with advanced analytics or simply go with your gut feeling, but be confident in your projected brackets and stick to them throughout the whole draft.

3- Don’t be a hero: We all know about the John Druce’s, Fernando Pisani’s and Chris Kontos’s of the playoff universe. It seems every playoff season has its share of unexpected point producers. The reason for this is that when teams play each other for a possible seven straight games, coaches on both sides focus on stopping the opposition’s top players. That usually leaves a little more room to manoeuvre for second, third and yes, even sometimes fourth-liners. As attractive as the feeling might be, please don’t pretend to know who this year’s Brian Bickell will be. If you really must to take flyer on a third or fourth liner, make sure ALL first and second liners from your final-four candidates are taken first.

4- Goalies are the MVP’s: In most formats, picking tenders from Conference finalists gets you more points than you will ever get from any one skater. Unless your pool uses a system where goals or D-men points are weighted higher than one point, drafting your goalies in the first and/or second round (s) is a sound strategy.

5- Stick to your depth cut-off lines: As I would suggest for any fantasy draft, for each one of your positional lists (forwards, defenseman, goalies, teams) draw a cut-off line where you believe there is a steep step down in potential value between the players above and below said line (you can draw more than one line per list). Use these lines to help guide you throughout the draft. When your turn to pick comes up, you must consider your current roster and gauge which position is most critical for this particular pick. If you think all available players above your cut-off line for a given position will be gone before your next pick, then this is usually the position you should go with for this round. Contrary to your pre-season draft however, your playoff lists should be representative of perceived team strength (your brackets) rather than individual talent.

FEARFUL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

I say “fearful” because of the particularly volatile nature of handicapping these 2014 playoffs. Uncertainty surrounding many key injured and just returning players, perceived stud contenders’ disappointing runs to end the regular season and others ending it with positive momentum, the ever-elusive but critical importance of team chemistry and the ever-growing trend toward parity among the sweet-16 post-season NHL dance participants are all factors that will make 99% of brackets across North-America wrong.

For what it may be worth to your chances of winning your playoff pool, here’s a brief analysis of each of the first round match-ups and how I see these Stanley Cup Playoffs evolving.

COLORADO VS MINNESOTA: Youth is no obstacle to these Avs. They are as fearless and competitive as the guy behind their bench was as a rookie. All the young Avs can play at both ends of the ice. Their defense may be suspect on paper, but it held up pretty well through 82 games didn’t it? And past Ryan Suter, is the Wild D that much better? Semyon Varlamov is better than Ilya Bryzgalov at this point. COLORADO IN 5.

ST-LOUIS VS CHICAGO: Don’t let the Blues’ season-ending losing streak fool you. They are still serious cup contenders. Most of their many injured players are expected back for Game 1. So are Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but their lay-off has been much longer and the Hawks’ team play has been dreadful in their absence. It will be much more difficult for them to turn the switch back on as defending champs. ST-LOUIS IN 5.

ANAHEIM VS DALLAS: There simply is no category outside of goaltending that favors the Stars in this series. Bruce Boudreau will make sure his stellar shut-down duo of Hampus Lindholm and Ben Lovejoy are on the ice whenever Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin hop over the boards. Dallas won’t be able to match the Ducks’ scoring depth nor their overall team structure. Look for Kari Lehtonen’s brilliant athleticism to steal a couple of games for them nonetheless. ANAHEIM IN 6.

SAN JOSE VS LOS ANGELES: That one will be the all-out war of the opening round: two big, tough California rivals going at it for seven gruelling, physical games. The edge will go to L.A. because of these key factors: experience among the D-core, battle-tested roster mostly un-changed from their Championship run two years ago and Jonathan Quick’s un-matched playoff pedigree. LOS ANGELES IN 7.

BOSTON VS DETROIT: The only possible obstacle to a Bruins’ domination of the Eastern half of the bracket will be their energy reserve following a trip to the Finals last spring. There simply is no weakness to be found in this powerhouse line-up. Mike Babcock’s Wings will once again be a tough out, but with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg not being fully healthy all season long, the task will be too much to handle. BOSTON IN 6.

MONTREAL VS TAMPA BAY: The most difficult series to handicap in the first round because of the many unanswered questions entering Game 1: When will Ben Bishop be fully healthy? Which version of P.K. Subban will show up? Will another line but the David Desharnais unit provide offense for the Habs? Is the Lightning’s impressive youth movement ready for the intensity of the NHL playoffs... especially at the Centre Bell? Both teams have been extremely resilient and well coached this season, but the slight edge must go to the known quality of the veteran leadership group in the Montreal locker room. MONTREAL IN 7.

PITTSBURGH VS COLUMBUS: I do believe in the age-old adage that defense wins championships, but when you have the two best offensive centers in the world, you should at least be favored to win your first round match-up. Add one of the best pure snipers in the league to that and the trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and James Neal is way too much to handle for the up-and-coming Jackets. Todd Richards finally has Columbus fans believing in a potentially perennial playoff squad, but they drew too difficult an opponent to handle for such an inexperienced group. PITTSBURGH IN 6.

N.Y.RANGERS VS PHILADELPHIA: The East’s version of the San Jose-L.A. battle of attrition. The difference will be in the style of play, which should be much more free-flowing and less board-battle oriented. Both teams are almost evenly matched, but I believe the Rangers hold the edge in three critical areas: coach Alain Vigneault’s playoff experience, their depth and experience down the middle (Derek Stepan, Derrick Brassard and Brad Richards) and most importantly in the crease, where Steve Mason may not even be available to start the series and face perennial crease stud King Henrik. NEW YORK IN 7.

FINAL-FOUR: In the West, the Kings will face the Blues in a rematch of last year’s epic first round match-up. Ken Hitchcock’s squad has yet to address what plagued them in that series: lack of playmaking skill down the middle. Much like what the Hawks accomplished a year ago, the Kings will return to the Finals two years removed from winning it all. In the East, the unstoppable force that is the Bruins’ well oiled machine will build upon the confidence boost a victory over the feisty Wings and their old nemesis, the Canadiens affords them, rolling over the Rangers in the Conference Final.

STANLEY CUP FINALS: The Bruins have it all when you analyse what it took to win a championship in the past five or so playoff runs: elite-level coaching (Claude Julien would get my vote for the Adams Trophy this season), four-strong at centre who can all play without the puck, a team-concept buy-in from every player and clear commitment to the system, good team toughness and resiliency and an elite goaltender they can ride to 16 spring wins. The Kings have that too, but a second series in as many playoffs against the Blues will take way too much out of them. Just like what happened to Boston in the 2013 Finals, Darryl Sutter’s crew will simply run out of gas.

2014 STANLEY CUP CHAMPS: BOSTON BRUINS.

NHL Playoffs: Rolling 10-Gm Moving Average Corsi & PDO

Gus Katsaros — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 17:11:51 +0000

In a strange way this is a kind of tribute to the work done by Darryl on his fabulous site, and one of his great innovations in the addition of the ‘rolling’ Fenwick and PDO averages.

A moving average is normally conceptually associated with technical analysis and stock prices. Moving Average is defined as per the image shown below via a simple google search.

Here’s an example from the 2013-14 Tampa Bay Lightning outlining their rolling 10-game PDO.

Instead of focusing on the game-by-game Corsi or Fenwick, I like the idea of using a moving average to illustrate team trends over a predefined period of time, consistently applied throughout the season. The two elements I decided to focus on each have two components a 5v5 overall and 5v5 in games close (defined below).

Corsi is a shot-based plus/minus representation differential focusing on the accumulation of shot attempts for (shots, missed shots, blocked shots) directed at the opponents net, to the same criteria applied directed on your own goal. Usually represented as a ratio per 20 or 60 minutes, when taking the events that make up Corsi For and dividing the amount of events of Corsi Against, a definitive ratio emerges that can be used to gauge game performance at the player and team level. This is the Corsi Percentage (CF%)

PDO is a metric that based on the simple addition of situational on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. Cam Charron wrote a great piece (http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/01/21/pdo-explained/) explaining the importance and usage of PDO in analysis and I urge you to read over that write up for a greater perspective of the usage in determining ‘puck luck’. PDO has a fulcrum of around 1, or 100, or 1000 depending on the math used to calculated the metric. By fulcrum, I mean that a high PDO will normalize around 1, and a low PDO will do the same. Sustainability of a high/low PDO is very sketchy and the return to the fulcrum is a sensible general rule.

More recently, Tyler Dellow wrote up the correlation between PDO and it’s associated with luck. Sometimes I feel the statistical definition and usage of luck is misinterpreted with the common-view definition, and bounces, but Dellow puts it into perspective here from a position of repeatability.

PDO will provide a basis of on-ice conditions to add context of the underlying Corsi percentages and performance effects.

SCORE EFFECTS

A facet that’s neatly expressed in the charts below is that of score effects. The concept entails the rise of shots against a team faces after building up a lead. Trailing teams will likely build up momentum in order to attempt to get back in the game, create a game-tying goal or cut down a lead, or in the case of a blowout, show some fight in not giving up despite the insurmountable lead.

To differentiate, metrics have been developed to counter score effects. Fenwick and Corsi Close (I’ve applied it here to PDO as well) have been invented. ‘Games Close’ means taking game events during situations where the game is within a goal in the first two periods and tied in the third. Focusing on the ‘close’ data, neutralizes score effects to filter a more pure recollection of a team’s/player’s performance.

It’s interesting to see how the effects are propped up when charting both a 5v5 Corsi percentage against the Corsi Close percentages. Teams dominating in ‘close’ situations then start to run away with the game, have an effect on the 5v5 Corsi in the form of a deflated percentage in relation to the 5v5 close. In other words, a high 5v5 close Corsi is usually followed by a deflated 5v5 Corsi as score effects come into play. The opposite also holds true and a team struggling at 5v5 close may find themselves trailing to the point that they step up the play to inflate their overall 5v5 Corsi in relation to the close percentages.

When viewing these charts pay some attention to the disparity in the close and overall moving averages to gauge if teams were truly running away with games, or if they were playing tight games and winning. Consequences of PDO can also help determine ‘puck luck’ interjection and contribution of on-ice conditions.

Presented below is the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs pairings teams season long rolling 10 game moving average of teams Corsi % and Corsi Close % as well as the PDO and PDO Close.

Flyers – McKeen's Hockey

NHL playoff pool golden rules

NHL Playoffs: Rolling 10-Gm Moving Average Corsi & PDO

SCORE EFFECTS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Bruins Vs Detroit Red Wings

NY Rangers vs Philadelpia Flyers

Montreal Canadiens Vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Pittsburgh Penguins Vs Columbus Blue Jackets

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Kings Vs San Jose Sharks

Anaheim Ducks Vs Dallas Stars

Chicago Blackhawks Vs St. Louis Blues

Colorado Avalanche Vs Minnesota Wild