Jacob MacDonald – McKeen's Hockey

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Sharks show some bite in tough season – Coyotes, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Devils, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Canucks and Golden Knights – Players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Dec 2023 16:09:54 +0000

BOSTON, MA - NOVEMBER 30: San Jose Sharks left wing Fabian Zetterlund (20) takes a shot in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the San Jose Sharks on November 30, 2023, at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

This column was previously getting released at the start of the week, but starting today, it will come out Saturdays instead. It’ll still preview the upcoming week, but now you’ll have more time to plan your strategy. Please bear in mind that the information provided is reflective of the time of writing (in this case, the morning of Dec. 8).

That aside, I wanted to cast a light on San Jose, which has won five of its last seven games. The Sharks have been fun to watch recently with them overcoming a 4-1 deficit against the Islanders on Tuesday and a 4-0 deficit to the Red Wings on Thursday. After a 0-10-1 start to the campaign that included back-to-back games in which they surrendered 10 goals, the Sharks are now 8-17-2. Still not good, but given where they came from, that’s impressive.

Looking at their last seven games specifically, the big change for San Jose has been its offense. The Sharks have scored 4.00 goals per game over that span, compared to 1.09 over their first 11 outings. Tomas Hertl has been an important factor in their recent surge, providing five goals and nine points over his last six appearances, but the real standout performer has been Mikael Granlund, who went from recording four assists over his first 13 contests to contributing three goals and 12 points over his last seven outings.

The Sharks have gotten some support team-wide too. Seven different players have supplied at least two goals over the past seven games, including three markers from defenseman Jacob MacDonald, who had just three goals over 101 career NHL games going into this campaign.

Is this sustainable, though? Probably not. The Sharks don’t have a particularly good team. Goaltenders Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen are still struggling, so if the offense cools from its unreal pace, then the whole house of cards will likely crumble again. Plus overcoming three- or four-goal deficits is fun to watch, but not something that can be counted on to happen routinely.

It is encouraging to see youngsters William Eklund, who has two goals and five points over his last four contests, and Fabian Zetterlund, who has four goals and five points over his last seven games, do well though. They’re the future of the franchise, so strong performances from them matter much more to San Jose than whether the squad is winning or losing today.

Arizona Coyotes - MON @ BUF, TUE @ PIT (BTB), FRI VS. SJS, SAT VS. BUF (BTB)

The Coyotes enjoyed a five-game winning streak from Nov. 25-Dec. 4, bringing them up to 13-9-2 by the end of that run. After spending a few years rebuilding, Arizona has a real shot of making the playoffs this year.

Of course, the Coyotes still have a lot of work ahead of them, which they’ll continue next week with games in Buffalo on Monday and Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by home contests versus the Sharks on Friday and Sabres on Saturday. Those adversaries range from bad to middling this campaign, so the Coyotes should do well.

With two back-to-back sets, Karel Vejmelka should get some work for the first time since Nov. 22. He’s struggled this campaign with a 2-6-2 record, 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage in 11 contests, so he’s not an ideal option for a situational pickup. That said, if he draws the Sharks, then it might be worth considering him (provided San Jose has cooled by that point).

If Alex Kerfoot is still available in your league, he’d be a good pickup. He’s one of the hottest players in the league with a goal and nine points over his last five contests. Part of that surge is thanks to him getting an increased role. Over his first 15 contests this campaign, he had a goal and four points while averaging 15:01 of ice time, including just 0:18 with the man advantage, but that’s jumped to 18:57 over his last 10 contests, including 2:21 on the power play. So, while he obviously can’t maintain the offensive pace of his last five games, as long as Arizona keeps deploying him like it has recently, Kerfoot should continue to be a valuable forward in most fantasy leagues.

Someone else to consider in the short-term but is less likely to have long-term success is Michael Carcone. He has five goals over his last five contests, but his shooting percentage has climbed to an unsustainable 32.4 and he serves in a bottom-six role, so expect him to crash completely once the hot streak is over.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ OTT, THU @DET, FRI VS NSH (BTB), SUN VS WAS

The Hurricanes will start the week by completing their six-game road trip with games in Ottawa on Tuesday and Detroit on Thursday. They’ll then get an opportunity to defend PNC Arena when they host the Predators on Friday and the Capitals on Sunday. Detroit’s been pretty good this campaign, but Nashville is the only other opponent currently in a playoff position, and even then, just barely.

Andrei Svechnikov couldn’t play Thursday due to an upper-body injury. If it turns out he won’t be available for some or all of next week’s games, then that will have a significant impact on Carolina’s lineup. In particular, Michael Bunting could play a major role during Svechnikov’s absence. When Svechnikov missed the first eight contests of the campaign because of a knee injury, Bunting had two goals and six points in eight contests while averaging 18:12 of ice time. Since then, Bunting has dropped to 13:45 while providing four goals and 10 points over 17 games.

We also might see Brendan Lemieux playing consistently during Svechnikov’s absence. Lemieux isn’t much of a factor offensively, but if you’re in a position where you’re looking for penalty minutes, he can help you there. Through 10 appearances this season, he’s accumulated 33 PIM and the 27-year-old has 517 PIM in 285 career games.

On the power play, there might be an opportunity for Brady Skjei to assume a second-line role. He has four goals and 15 points in 29 contests this season, which is great for a defenseman who is averaging just 0:13 with the man advantage. Even a second unit power-play role would be a potentially meaningful boost for him.

Colorado Avalanche – MON VS CGY, WED VS BUG, SAT @ WPG, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

The Avalanche will play four games next week, including home contests against the Flames on Monday, the Sabes on Wednesday and the Sharks on Sunday. Sprinkled in there will also be a road outing in Winnipeg on Saturday. Of those opponents, just Winnipeg is in a playoff position. The Sharks have won five of their last seven games, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re still hot by the time that contest happens.

Speaking of hot players, Nathan MacKinnon is on a 10-game scoring streak, providing four goals and 16 points over that stretch, including two goals and five points over his last two contests alone. Through Thursday’s action, MacKinnon has moved into a three-way tie for fourth in the scoring race with 36 points in 26 outings.

The Avalanche don’t have any other players who are currently excelling, though. Bowen Byram is interesting with two goals and three points over his last four contests. He might be worth some short-term consideration, but the lack of a consistent power-play role is a significant negative.

We also should see Ivan Prosvetov start this week, likely Sunday versus San Jose. He’s been decent when utilized, posting a 2-1-1 record, 2.45 GAA and .919 save percentage in six contests this season, so if you’re looking for a situational pickup in goal, then Prosvetov is a good option.

New Jersey Devils – WED VS BOS, SAT @ CBJ, SUN VS ANA (BTB)

The Devils are a borderline selection because they have just three games this week and their first contest is a home game versus the mighty Bruins on Wednesday. However, New Jersey will then face two of the worst teams in the league with matches in Columbus on Saturday and against the Ducks on Sunday.

If you look at the league leader in terms of points per game, it isn’t Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin or Connor McDavid. That honor instead belongs to Jack Hughes, who has 10 goals and 33 points in just 19 contests. Hughes missed five straight games from Nov. 5-16 due to a shoulder injury but has bounced right back. In particular, he scored four goals and 10 points over a four-game stretch from Nov. 28-Dec. 5. Provided he stays healthy the rest of the way, Hughes is a good bet to surpass his career high of 99 points.

Hughes is far from New Jersey’s sole offensive threat with the team averaging 3.63 goals per game -- fourth in the NHL. However, that’s been counterbalanced by the Devils allowing 3.67 goals per contest, which is the second worst in the league. Their expected goals against per 60 is 3.27, which suggests that part of the problem is New Jersey’s defense, but its goaltending has been lacking too.

Vitek Vanecek is having a disastrous campaign with a 3.60 GAA and an .877 save percentage in 16 contests. The fact that he has a 9-5-0 record despite that is a testament to the Devils’ amazing offense, but for a team with playoff aspirations, Vanecek isn’t looking like an acceptable option. Lately, that’s led to New Jersey pivoting more toward Akira Schmid.

Schmid struggled initially with a 3.46 GAA and an .885 save percentage through his first six appearances in 2023-24, but since then he’s rebounded with a 3-2-0 record, 2.53 GAA and .920 save percentage in five outings. With the 23-year-old outplaying Vanecek, Schmid has a real opportunity to steal the No. 1 gig, which could lead to him accumulating a lot of wins given the offensive support New Jersey can provide.

New York Islanders – MON VS TOR, FRI VS ANA, SAT @BOS (BTB)

The Islanders will start the week with home games versus the Maple Leafs, Ducks and Bruins on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before visiting Montreal on Saturday. Toronto and Boston are tough adversaries, but Anaheim and Montreal rank near the bottom of the league, and it helps that the Islanders will be playing mostly at home next week.

Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have been playing some of the best hockey of their lives recently. Barzal has four goals and 11 points over his last four games, propelling him to nine goals and 27 points in 24 outings this year. Meanwhile, Horvat is on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s scored four goals and nine points, bringing him up to nine markers and 23 points through 24 appearances in 2023-24.

The Islanders have been getting offensive help from less common sources too. Julien Gauthier has two goals and five points in five contests this year. You can consider taking him in the short term, but keep in mind that he’s a depth forward, so once his hot streak ends, he won’t have value in anything but the absolute deepest of leagues.

Similarly, Simon Holmstrom is averaging just 13:38 of ice time this year, so he hasn’t been getting a big enough role to warrant holding him in standard fantasy leagues. However, Holmstrom is an interesting short-term option after scoring two goals and four points over his last four contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs – MON @ NYI, TUE @ NYR (BTB), THU VS CBJ, SAT VS PIT

The Maple Leafs’ schedule isn’t necessarily easy, but it is full with four games ahead of them. They’ll start the week with games in New York versus the Islanders on Monday and the Rangers on Tuesday. Afterwards, the Leafs will return home to host the Blue Jackets on Thursday and Penguins on Saturday.

Goaltender Joseph Woll sustained a leg injury during Thursday’s 4-3 victory over Ottawa and is expected to miss time. He had been serving as the Leafs’ top goaltender, but the injury will at least temporarily force Toronto to pivot back to Ilya Samsonov, who has missed the last two games due to an illness but will presumably be fine by next week. Samsonov has a 3.58 GAA and an .878 save percentage in 10 contests, so he’s been far from ideal, but he shouldn’t be dismissed after recording a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 42 outings last season.

Martin Jones might also get a start next week depending on how long Woll is out for. Don’t expect too much out of Jones, though. He had a 3.09 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 220 NHL games from 2018-19 through 2022-23 and more recently has posted a 3.37 GAA and an .870 save percentage in five outings with AHL Toronto. Simply put, he’s not a good option. You might want to keep Dennis Hildeby in the back of your mind, though. The 22-year-old excelled in the Swedish Hockey League and has looked dominant in the AHL this campaign with a 1.89 GAA and a .925 save percentage in nine contests.

Putting the Maple Leafs’ goaltending aside, the team has been led by the usual suspects recently, which is to say that Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander have combined for seven goals and 12 points over Toronto’s last three games. Meanwhile, Max Domi has provided a goal and an assist over his last two contests. He’s been inconsistent offensively, which is unlikely to change so long as he’s averaging just 12:54 of ice time, but he’s an interesting short-term pickup while he’s hot, especially if you’re in a position to benefit from the penalty minutes he can provide.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS TBL, THU VS FLA, SAT @ MIN, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Canucks will kick off the week by hosting the Lightning on Tuesday and the Panthers on Thursday. They’ll then travel to Minnesota for a contest Saturday and face the Blackhawks in Chicago on Sunday. Those later two games are of particular interest given that they’re against teams not in playoff spots.

Sam Lafferty has bounced around the lineup this campaign, but lately, he’s been playing alongside Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. That’s a golden opportunity for the 28-year-old, who has seven goals and 13 points in 27 contests this year. He’s also doing well at the moment with two goals and three points over his last three games. Be careful not to get too excited about Lafferty, whose career high in points is just 27, but his fantasy value will increase meaningfully if his current top-six role proves to be more than just a temporary assignment.

One Canucks player who has trended in the other direction recently is Andrei Kuzmenko. After scoring 39 goals and 74 points in 81 contests last year, the 27-year-old has been limited to four goals and 15 points over 24 outings in 2023-24, including just one point (a goal) over his last eight appearances. Things got so bad that he was even a healthy scratch for two straight games from Nov. 24-25 and he logged just 12:15 of ice time Thursday, his second-lowest total of the season.

While I don’t expect Kuzmenko to repeat his 2022-23 heights, he certainly can do better than he has lately. Given his recent play and his diminished role (which I believe to be temporary), he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Vegas Golden Knights – TUE VS CGY, FRI VS BUF, SUN VS OTT

Vegas has just three games scheduled next week, but they’re all home contests against teams not in a playoff position. Specifically, the Golden Knights will host the Flames on Tuesday, the Sabres on Friday and the Senators on Sunday.

Jack Eichel is easily the hottest member of the Golden Knights with four goals and nine points over his last four contests, pushing him up to 12 goals and 30 points in 27 contests in 2023-24. Alex Tuch has already worked out great for Buffalo while Peyton Krebs and Noah Ostlund still might be good for the Sabres in the long run, so it’d be overly simplistic to call Vegas the winners of the Eichel trade, but the Golden Knights nevertheless must be thrilled with how that move has worked out.

Ben Hutton has been a bit of a disappointment, though, at least from a fantasy perspective. With Shea Theodore (upper body) unavailable, Hutton has averaged 2:17 of power-play ice time over the last seven contests, up from an average of just 0:25 over his first 14 outings. However, Hutton has just a goal and an assist over his last seven games and neither of those points came with the man advantage. Hutton’s never been much of an offensive force anyway, but it is a shame that he hasn’t gotten any production out of that power-play role.

If Daniil Miromanov (undisclosed) returns before Theodore, then he might take that power-play spot from Hutton. In that scenario, Miromanov would have some fantasy value.

*(BTB) – Denotes the second of a back-to-back series

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:05:11 +0000

Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.

What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.

What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.

What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.

Forwards

Tomas Hertl

A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.

Logan Couture

The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.

Anthony Duclair

An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20^th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.

Mike Hoffman

A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.

Mikael Granlund

Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.

Alexander Barabanov

The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.

Kevin Labanc

Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.

Filip Zadina

The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.

Fabian Zetterlund

Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.

Nico Sturm

A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.

Defense

Mario Ferraro

While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.

Matt Benning

The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.

Kyle Burroughs

A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood

The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.

There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Projected starts: 40-45

CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Klingberg getting a big shot, players due for regression from high percentages last season, rising young players like J.J. Peterka, Seth Jarvis, Oliver Wahlstrom, and more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 29 Sep 2023 16:24:40 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 10: Buffalo Sabres Left Wing JJ Peterka (77) celebrates a goal during the first period of the National Hockey League game between the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers on April 10, 2023/ at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, John Klingberg getting a big shot, players due for regression from high percentages last season, plus rising young players like J.J. Peterka, Seth Jarvis, Oliver Wahlstrom, and more.

#1 Early returns from Maple Leafs training camp have John Klingberg working the point on Toronto’s top power play unit. This is not a huge surprise, as Klingberg has recorded 146 power play points since 2015-2016, which ranks 11th among defensemen in that time. If Klingberg stays in that spot, Morgan Rielly is the one to lose out and he has scored 48 of his 109 points in the past two seasons on the power play.

#2 Acquired from the Los Angeles Kings as part of the return in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Gabe Vilardi is getting a look on Winnipeg’s top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele. Vilardi ranked 20^th in the league last season with 1.33 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, and if he is going to get reps with Winnipeg’s top playmakers, he could be primed for a big season.

#3 There may not be a player getting targeted for shooting percentage regression like Vancouver’s Andrei Kuzmenko who scored 39 goals in his first NHL season, finishing on a league-high 27.3% of his shots. From 2000-2001 through 2021-2022, there were 50 seasons in which a player scored at least 20 goals and had a shooting percentage of at least 20%. What happened the following season? Just two of those players had a higher shooting percentage the following season. The average decline in shooting percentage was 6.5 percent. If Kuzmenko’s season is the same as his rookie campaign, but he has a shooting percentage that is 6.5 percent lower, he would drop from 39 to 30 goals.

#4 In addition to Kuzmenko, Brayden Point, Pavel Buchnevich, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Scheifele, and Roope Hintz all scored at least 20 goals while scoring on more than 20 percent of their shots in 2022-2023. While they are likely to experience regression in 2023-2024, Draisaitl might be the least likely to experience a drop off – he has scored on 20.2 percent of his shots over the past five seasons.

#5 While we’re raining on parades before the season even begins, there are players that are likely to see some regression in scoring because last season’s numbers were inflated by a high on-ice shooting percentage. Kuzmenko was at 13.1 percent, slightly lower than Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn, who was also at 13.1 percent. Seattle’s Jared McCann (12.7 percent) and Vince Dunn (12.4 percent), St. Louis’ Pavel Buchnevich (12.4 percent), and Boston’s Pavel Zacha (12.2 percent) were among the full-time players with the highest on-ice shooting percentages. Players that played partial seasons like Ilya Mikheyev (13.8 percent), Alex Belzile (13.8 percent), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (13.6 percent), and Luke Evangelista (12.5 percent) also had inflated percentages in their smaller samples.

#6 On a more optimistic slant, there are also going to be players that are due for an uptick in the percentages, players with low on-ice shooting percentages last season. That group includes Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky (5.5 percent), Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore (5.7 percent) and Phillip Danault (6.4 percent), Washington’s Nicklas Backstrom (6.2 percent), Florida’s Sam Reinhart (6.6 percent), and Ottawa’s Drake Batherson (6.6 percent).

#7 Goaltenders are unpredictable, and this should not be overlooked or forgotten when it comes time to make fantasy picks. Sure, it would be great to secure the most reliable netminders in the league for your team, but it’s so hard to know who that will be from one season to the next. Two seasons ago, when Igor Shesterkin won the Vezina Trophy, Jacob Markstrom was the runner up and Frederik Andersen finished fourth. Thatcher Demko, Ville Husso, and Tristan Jarry received votes. All of this is to say that there are not many sure things between the pipes.

#8 Having noted that, these goaltenders have been the most reliable options in net over the past three seasons, based on Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 Minutes (minimum 2000 minutes): Ilya Sorokin (0.49), Igor Shesterkin (0.47), Juuse Saros (0.33), Linus Ullmark (0.30), and Connor Hellebuyck (0.29). Four of them have roles as clearcut No. 1 starters on their teams while Ullmark, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, has more of a challenge for playing time from his backup, Jeremy Swayman.

#9 Obviously Connor Bedard is the headliner of the rookie class, and he is the one that is most reliably ready to contribute in standard fantasy leagues. The others are more suited for deep or dynasty leagues. Logan Cooley and Adam Fantilli look like they will have good opportunities to play prominent roles with Arizona and Columbus, respectively, but it is asking a lot for a player to jump from the NCAA after one season and immediately become a productive scorer in the NHL. Beyond them, Nashville’s Luke Evangelista is still Calder eligible after tallying 15 points (7 G, 8 A) in 24 games last season. Ottawa’s Ridly Greig picked up nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 20 games last season. There are defensemen who could have an immediate impact, though they may not score enough for standard fantasy leagues. New Jersey’s Luke Hughes did not look out of place in his late season and playoff audition with the Devils last season and could get second unit power play time this season. Hughes’ teammate, Simon Nemec was the second pick in the 2022 Draft and is probably NHL ready, too, if the Devils can find room for him. Los Angeles Kings defenseman Brandt Clarke got a taste of NHL action last season but should play a more significant role this time around. As intriguing as any of these rookies might be, odds are that they will not have an immediate fantasy impact.

#10 Over the past three seasons, the players that consistently generate scoring chances during five-on-five play are those with the highest ixG/60 (minimum 2000 minutes): Auston Matthews (1.27), Timo Meier (1.12), Brady Tkachuk (1.09), Anders Lee (1.08), Zach Hyman (1.07), Jeff Skinner (1.06), Michael Bunting (1.05), John Tavares (1.04), Patrice Bergeron (1.02), and then three tied at 1.00 – Matthew Tkachuk, Tage Thompson, and Sam Bennett. Not huge surprises there, but Bunting and Bennett are a couple of gritty forwards hanging in nice company.

#11 With Jack Quinn injured, there may be a little more opportunity for Buffalo Sabres sophomore winger J.J. Peterka, who finished last season with 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in his last 18 games. He then went to the World Championships, where he put up 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 10 games for Germany, earning the award as the tournament’s top forward. There is a chance for Peterka to skate with Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt on Buffalo’s second line and that is a young skilled trio, a line that could help to elevate Peterka’s production as he begins his career ascent.

#12 While his 2022-2023 season might have been somewhat disappointing, scoring one less point in much more ice time than he had as a rookie the year before, Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis also saw his on-ice shooting percentage dip from 10.1 percent to 7.1 percent, so there is good reason to expect that number to bounce back in his favor. If he skates with Sebastian Aho and Michael Bunting on Carolina’s top line, there is a good chance for Jarvis’ percentages to bounce back and his scoring output can take off.

#13 As the Chicago Blackhawks attempt to provide sufficient support for Connor Bedard on their top line, it looks like Taylor Hall will be on one wing and, after Chicago returned Lukas Reichel to center, veteran Tyler Johnson could get his shot on the Blackhawks’ top line. Johnson had 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 56 games last season when his most common linemates were Taylor Raddysh and Jason Dickinson, so there is certainly room to upgrade the quality of scoring options skating with Johnson.

#14 He was just coming into form last season, scoring 12 points in his last 17 games, when 6-foot-6 Detroit Red Wings forward Michael Rasmussen suffered a season-ending knee injury. He delivered 119 hits to go with a career-high 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 56 games last season and while his offensive upside is going to put a limit on his fantasy appeal, 24-year-old Rasmussen is now contributing enough that he does warrant consideration in deep leagues. Keep an eye on where he is playing in Detroit, because he can move around that lineup, either in checking roles or in a supporting offensive role and obviously the latter would be more appealing for fantasy managers.

#15 With Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad recovering from surgeries, it appears that Oliver Ekman-Larsson is going to get a chance to quarterback the Florida Panthers power play. The 32-year-old blueliner has seen his play decline in recent seasons, but he has run many power plays in his career. From 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, while playing for the Coyotes, he tallied 122 of his 267 points on the power play. Ekman-Larsson’s declining performance should help lower his draft day value and he almost certainly will get replaced by Montour when he is healthy, but as a short-term option, Ekman-Larsson just might have a shot at a rebound season.

#16 Injuries have hampered Montreal Canadiens forward Sean Monahan in the past three seasons, but he performed well before getting shut down last season, putting up 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 25 games for the Habs. On a team with few established scoring threats, Monahan could have a chance to skate on the wing with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki on Montreal’s top line and while the injuries are a concern, the opportunity that could be out there for Monahan would make him worth a late-round flier.

#17 A knee injury sidelined Islanders winger Oliver Wahlstrom for more than half of last season but he is an intriguing option entering this season because the 23-year-old could get a legitimate shot to play in a scoring role. Although he has 61 points (32 G, 29 A) in 161 career games, Wahlstrom has been playing just 12 minutes per game, so there is untapped offensive upside. Over the past three seasons, among players to skate in at least 1000 five-on-five minutes, Wahlstrom leads the Islanders in shots per 60 minutes (8.95) and ranks fourth in both goals (0.83) and expected goals (0.83).

#18 While scoring is a driving feature for fantasy performance, there are peripheral stats that can make a difference, too. Depending on the league, hit totals can add serious value for a player and one place to find them will be on Tampa Bay’s third line, where Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont bring a physical presence to the wings. Eyssimont bounced around to three NHL teams last season, but he had 34 hits in 15 games with Tampa Bay, while playing just 11:25 per game. Goals were hard for Jeannot to come by last season, as he scored just six times on 107 shots, but he has 608 hits in the past two seasons, most among all forwards.

#19 After trading reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson in the offseason, the San Jose Sharks may be entering the season with one of the worst defense groups ever. As a result, journeyman blueliner Jacob MacDonald could very well find his way to power play time in San Jose. MacDonald is a 30-year-old who played a career-high 58 games last season and has skated in a total of 101 career games, producing just one power play point in the NHL. However, in his past four American Hockey League seasons he has produced 60 goals and 165 points in 236 games, with 30 of those goals coming via the power play, so maybe gets a shot with the Sharks. Another consideration for the Sharks might be rookie Henry Thrun, a 22-year-old who played eight games for the Sharks last season and had produced 63 points (14 G, 49 A) in 68 games during his sophomore and junior seasons at Harvard.

#20 It is unusual for a rookie goaltender to make a major impact, but that possibility exists for Devon Levi of the Buffalo Sabres, who figures to be the No. 1 netminder right out of the gate. Other rookie goalies like Pyotr Kochetkov in Carolina, Dustin Wolf in Calgary, and Joel Hofer in St. Louis could all find their way to significant roles this season. New Jersey’s Akira Schmid is not Calder eligible, but it another up-and-coming goaltender with a shot of playing a big role in 2023-2024.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Dach, Mikheyev and Hagel Taking Advantage of New Opportunities, Major Injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, Surprising Goaltenders offering Value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 18:36:21 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players like Kirby Dach, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brandon Hagel taking advantage of new opportunities, major injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, plus some surprising goaltenders that could offer value right now.

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 05: Montreal Canadiens center Kirby Dach (77) plays the puck during the Las Vegas Golden Knights versus the Montreal Canadiens game on November 05, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Chicago Blackhawks sure seemed to move on quickly from Kirby Dach, the 21-year-old center who was the third pick in the 2019 Draft, when he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 Draft. Dach did not have instant success in Montreal but seems to have found a great spot on the right wing of the Habs’ top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In the past six games, Dach has delivered nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal, and is starting to show the talent that made him such a high pick in the first place.

#2 Ilya Mikheyev busted out for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, scoring a career-high 21 goals in just 53 games. He signed in Vancouver as a free agent and has had an instant impact skating on a line with Elias Pettersson and fellow Russian winger Andrei Kuzmenko. In his past seven games, Mikheyev has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. For the season, he is playing 17:20 per game, up more than two minutes per game from his ice time in Toronto last season.

#3 The Tampa Bay Lightning brought in winger Brandon Hagel last season to provide forward depth and he was effective in that role. With the Lightning forward group thinned out by injuries and offseason departures, there is now an opportunity for Hagel to contribute more and he is taking advantage of that. He has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past eight games, landing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Anyone getting a chance to play with those two is going to be worth a look and Hagel’s production gives him a chance to stick there for a while.

#4 The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to make do without left winger Evander Kane for the next 3-4 months after he had his wrist accidentally stepped on by Tampa Bay Lightning winger Pat Maroon. Kane is such an important player for Edmonton and there is not likely going to be a trade to make up for his absence. That means that internal options are the way forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are important as the proven complementary pieces in the top six, but Jesse Puljujarvi is getting another crack higher on the depth chart and rookie Dylan Holloway is looking at the best opportunity of his young career. Holloway, the 14^th pick in the 2020 Draft, played a career-high 15:15 in Thursday’s loss at Carolina.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche have been without left winger Valeri Nichushkin since October 25, but it has now been announced that he will miss a month of action after having ankle surgery. Nichushkin was off to an incredible start, with 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in seven games before getting hurt. With Nichushkin and captain Gabriel Landeskog out, Colorado is trying a second line Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, and Martin Kaut. While Newhook and Kaut might have longer range potential, Rodrigues is the one with the most fantasy value right now. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) during a four-game point streak, and he is getting first unit power play reps for the Avalanche.

#6 For years, Dallas Stars left winger Jamie Benn was a premier fantasy hockey performer, scoring a bunch and adding big hit totals to give him elite value at a relatively shallow position. Benn is no longer the same kind of dynamic presence, but he can still turn up the heat from time to time. He had a hat trick last Saturday against Edmonton and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, even though his 14:06 average time on ice is the lowest of his career.

#7 New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood missed nearly all of last season, limited to just three games due to hip surgery. He has returned to action in fine form this season. Although he is skating on the Devils’ fourth line, Wood has been productive, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in the past six games. Wood has never scored more than 32 points in a season, so keep expectations in check, but his increasing offensive contributions could make him useful in deeper leagues.

#8 Seattle Kraken center Yanni Gourde did not record a point in the first six games of the season, but he has pulled out of that slump to produce eight points (2 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. Gourde brings energy to an effective line with Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev.

#9 Gourde is not the only Seattle center offering good value. Fourth-line center Morgan Geekie is starting to contribute offensively in a way that he never has before in his NHL career. In his past eight games, Geekie has eight points (4 G, 4 A) despite averaging just 10:08 of ice time per game. That lack of playing time makes Geekie an unlikely add in most fantasy leagues, but in deep leagues, it is worth keeping an eye on anyone who puts up a point per game over an eight-game stretch. Maybe that prompts a bigger role for Geekie and if more ice time comes his way, that could change the calculation on his fantasy value.

#10 Although the goals have not come so easily this season, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore continues to provide secondary offense. Moore broke through for a career high 17 goals and 48 points last season but has just two goals on 52 shots on goal through 16 games. Moore has added nine assists, but his shot rate is especially notable and suggests that he could be a good buy-low option because he is not likely to keep scoring on less than four percent of his shots on goal.

#11 Arizona Coyotes left winger Matias Maccelli is still considered a rookie after he played 23 games last season. He has continued to develop, even on a bad Coyotes squad, and while he does have eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past nine games, Maccelli also has just six shots on goal in that time, so it is difficult to expect sustained production.

#12 With Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup, the Seattle Kraken have turned to Martin Jones in goal and the veteran netminder has responded to the challenge, posting a .940 save percentage in his past six starts. Jones has been a below-average goaltender for each of the past four seasons, so modest expectations are the way to go, but if he can provide league average goaltending for the Kraken, the wins will follow.

#13 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight was supposed to challenge Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job last season, but it never materialized as Knight finished the season with a .908 save percentage. It was fine, but it’s fair to say the Panthers had higher hopes. After a 40-save shutout against Carolina this week, Knight has a .925 save percentage in six starts this season and that kind of performance is how the backup goaltender challenges for a No. 1 job, especially when Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter, has a .897 save percentage in eight starts.

#14 It is not easy to accrue goaltending value as the starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes, but Karel Vejmelka is giving it a shot. In his past six appearances, Vejmelka has four wins and a .944 save percentage, which will play just fine. Wins are going to be a challenge for the Coyotes all season, and Vejmelka is not going to keep stopping 94% of the shots that he faces, but if he is better than league average, he could have fantasy appeal.

#15 New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is out 8-10 weeks with a groin injury and the long-term nature of that absence could give a winger like Tomas Tatar the opportunity he needs to maximize his production. Tatar has excellent underlying numbers, with the Devils controlling more than 63% of 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts with Tatar on the ice. He has chipped in nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and a consistent spot alongside Nico Hischier is a good place for Tatar to be.

#16 When Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a knee injury against Boston last Saturday, it left Toronto in a dire situation in goal. Since Matt Murray was already injured, Erik Kallgren moved into the starting role and the Maple Leafs signed Keith Petruzzelli to be his backup. Petruzzelli, 23, has played 23 games in the ECHL and 11 games in the American Hockey League since finishing four years at Quinnipiac University. While Murray has returned to practice and could be ready for game action again soon, Kallgren has a .890 save percentage in six appearances for the Maple Leafs this season, a .889 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. We knew goaltending would be a major question mark for the Maple Leafs this season, but that question is getting asked loudly very early in the season.

#17 Not only are the Colorado Avalanche dealing with injuries up front, but the defending Stanley Cup champs are also missing Sam Girard and Bowen Byram on the blueline. As a result, Jacob MacDonald and Kurtis MacDermid were in the lineup for Thursday’s win against Nashville. Although MacDonald tends not to play a lot of minutes in the NHL, he has been very productive in the AHL and if Girard and Byram miss significant time, MacDonald might have enough opportunity to be a meaningful contributor to the Avalanche.

#18 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas remains a rare fantasy hockey contributor. While he has a respectable four points (1 G, 3 A) in 14 games this season, any scoring he does is really a bonus. Gudas has 26 blocked shots and 46 hits, making him one of four defensemen to have at least 20 blocked shots and 40 hits. The others are Jacob Trouba, Connor Clifton, and Jeff Petry. Trouba and Gudas are the only ones in that quartet averaging more than 2.0 shots on goal per game. With the Panthers a little desperate on defense, especially while Aaron Ekblad has been out of the lineup, Gudas is playing a career high 20:52 per game this season.

#19 There is a race between two lines for the most productive during five-on-five play this season. Vegas’ trio of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone has scored 6.42 goals per 60 minutes. That comes in just ahead of the Dallas Stars line of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson, at 6.31 goals per 60 minutes. Among lines that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes together, they are far ahead of No. 3 – the Islanders trio of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, which has scored 4.26 goals per 60 minutes. While some of these players are stars that are not going to be available, Stephenson, Lee, and Nelson are productive players that can be found on the waiver wire in about half of leagues.

#20 The Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have the top three power plays in terms of goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. None of those are particularly surprising, but No. 4 is the Arizona Coyotes. That’s a stunner. Matias Maccelli leads the Coyotes with six power play points, one ahead of Clayton Keller, and Nick Ritchie, as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and J.J. Moser.

The Avalanche are humming along at a clip of 15.74 goals per 60 minutes. By way of comparison, the top rate last season belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 10.23 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, so the Avs are about 50% better than the top rate in the league last season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS 3/24/21 – Colorado Love Letter

Scott Cullen — Wed, 24 Mar 2021 19:08:44 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, it’s practically a love letter to the recent performances by the Colorado Avalanche but also notes on Johnny Gaudreau, Mathew Barzal, Josh Morrissey, and more.

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 26: Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) skates during a game between the San Jose Sharks and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on January 26, 2021. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Nathan MacKinnon returned to the Colorado Avalanche lineup two weeks ago. In eight games since, the Avalanche have allowed league-low 5-on-5 score-and-venue adjusted shot attempts (40.4 per 60), shots (20.4 per 60), and expected goals (1.44). They rank fourth in goals against per 60 (1.39) over that period. The Tampa Bay Lightning are not far behind either.

#2 So why am I throwing team defensive numbers at you? Because when you are streaming players into your fantasy lineup it makes sense to, at all costs, avoid matchups against Colorado and Tampa Bay right now. They are smothering the opposition.

#3 Colorado also leads the league in the offensive categories over the past couple of weeks, too. Shot attempts (76.7 per 60), shots (43.0 per 60), expected goals (3.19 per 60) and goals (4.02 per 60) are all ranked No. 1. The shot rates are preposterous. No other team has more than 66 shot attempts or 34 shots on goal per 60 minutes and the Avalanche are far above those thresholds.

#4 Among 233 players that have played at least 400 5-on-5 minutes, the Avalanche have players ranked second through sixth when it comes to allowing the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews, Gabriel Landeskog, and Samuel Girard. The only player with a lower rate of shot attempts against per 60 minutes compared to those five Avs is New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes.

#5 That big line for the Avalanche is absurdly dominant. They are getting 66.1% of shot attempts for the season. The next best lines (minimum 100 5-on-5 minutes) are Boston’s Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak (64.9%), Toronto’s Joe Thornton-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner (61.9%), Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe-Aleksander Barkov-Anthony Duclair (61.9%) and Montreal’s Tomas Tatar-Phillip Danault-Brendan Gallagher (61.6%).

Calgary Flames Left Wing Johnny Gaudreau (13) (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Since Darryl Sutter has taken over behind the Calgary Flames bench, left winger Johnny Gaudreau has two goals, zero assists and a dozen shots on goal in seven games. He ranks 12^th among Calgary skaters in individual expected goals per 60 (0.50) and Brett Ritchie is the only regular with a lower rate of expected goals (0.46) and he is not far behind.

#7 In six games since his left winger Anders Lee suffered a season-ending knee injury, Islanders center Mathew Barzal has zero goals and two assists with 10 shots on goal. The Islanders are presumably looking for some help to fill that hole on the trade market because, not counting Lee and Jordan Eberle, these are the forwards who have played most with Barzal this season: Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellow, Anthony Beauvillier, Leo Komarov, Cal Clutterbuck, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#8 Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey is having an interesting season. During 5-on-5 play, he is on the ice for 44.9% of shot attempts and 42.5% of expected goals yet, individually, he is generating a career-high 2.1 shots on goal per game and his 0.50 points per game is consistent with his production in the past two seasons. Morrissey has also been on the ice for 3.01 expected goals per 60, the highest rate among defensemen that have played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes.

#9 While I suggested avoiding matchups with Colorado and Tampa Bay, there are obviously some teams on the other end of the spectrum, the teams that should be targeted for matchups. First look goes to the Philadelphia Flyers and it’s not as though the Flyers are hopelessly lost but they can’t stop the puck. In the past two weeks, the Flyers are allowing 4.79 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. That is close to a goal per 60 minutes worse than the 30^th-ranked Anaheim Ducks (3.85) and nearly 50% worse than the 29^th-ranked Ottawa Senators (3.20).

#10 Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 save percentage in the past two weeks is .797. Anaheim (.874) and Toronto (.894) are the next worst. Until Carter Hart or Brian Elliott get sorted out, there is no reason to shy away from matchups against the Flyers.

#11 John Gibson got off to a strong start for the Ducks, posting a .919 save percentage in his first 14 starts, but he started to fade under the weight of a heavy shot volume and had an .856 save percentage in his last nine starts before getting hurt. Ryan Miller (.880 SV%) has not stemmed the tide of goals against for Anaheim.

#12 With Frederik Andersen struggling before his recent injury, this could be the opportunity for Jack Campbell to earn a bigger role with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Campbell has had his own health issues but does have a .934 save percentage in 10 starts since he joined the Maple Leafs last season.

#13 Acquired in last season’s trade that sent Sami Vatanen to Carolina, New Jersey Devils winger Janne Kuokkanen has started to emerge as one of the Devils’ better young forwards. He has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in the past eight games and his 2.61 points/60 ranks second on the Devils, just behind Travis Zajac (2.62). Kuokkanen’s shot rate is still not ideal but his production is helping to earn him more ice time and who knows what his role could be down the stretch for a rebuilding Devils team?

#14 There are nine defensemen in the league right now that have played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes and have generated more than 1.50 points per 60 minutes. The first two are from Washington (John Carlson and Nick Jensen), the next two from Vegas (Nicolas Hague and Shea Theodore), the next duo from Edmonton (Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie) and then Colorado’s Sam Girard, Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun, and New Jersey’s Ty Smith finish up the top nine.

#15 In the past month, Nashville goaltender Juuse Saros has posted a .968 save percentage in six starts. This after he had a .882 save percentage in his first 10 appearances of the season. The season may be drifting away from the Predators – or maybe not, they are only four points behind Chicago for the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division – but if Saros gets hot that could help Nashville close the gap. He also has a history of coming on strong after a slow start – last season he had a .895 save percentage before the All-Star break and .936 after.

Aaron Ekblad #5 of the Florida Panthers (Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images)

#16 Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad has been thrust into the power play spotlight this season, playing 3:46 per game with the man advantage, nearly a minute more per game than his previous career high and 2:18 more per game than last season when he played a career-low 1:28 per game on the power play. As a result, Ekblad has already tied his previous career high with six power play goals, set during his rookie season in 2014-2015.

#17 Coming into the season, Blues center Brayden Schenn was a pretty good candidate for regression after his shot rates declined last season, but it was masked by his scoring on a career-high 18.1% of his shots. He is still scoring on 17.1% of his shots this season but Schenn has hit a dry spell with no points and just two shots on goal in the past five games. That’s remarkably little production for someone averaging 19:35 time on ice in those five games but this could merely be a case of some overdue regression catching up to Schenn.

#18 The Boston Bruins seem like prime candidates to add scoring forwards before the trade deadline because they are having such a difficult time scoring goals – Buffalo, Nashville, and Detroit are the only teams with a lower 5-on-5 scoring rate than Boston’s 1.98 goals/60. Since Boston’s top line can still generate offense, the trouble seems to be on the second and third lines. For example, Charlie Coyle has zero points and five shots on goal, while playing nearly 17 minutes per game, in the past eight games. Coyle is not a star but had seven straight seasons with at least 30 points coming into this season and is sitting on just eight points (5 G, 3 A) in 27 games. His shot attempts, shot, and expected goal rates are all at career lows.

#19 One last Avs note for this week. Defenseman Jacob MacDonald is a 28-year-old who had played all of two NHL games prior to this season but injuries on the Colorado blueline opened the door for MacDonald and while he does not play a lot (16:41 ATOI), MacDonald has had outstanding results. Among defensemen to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes, MacDonald ranks first in on-ice Corsi For/60 (71.0) and first in on-ice Corsi Against/60 (40.4), leaving him with a 63.8 CF%. The next best, non-Colorado defenseman is Boston’s Matt Grzelcyk at 59.1 CF%.

MacDonald played at Cornell, was not drafted, and climbed the ladder of pro hockey, starting in the ECHL and has been in the Devils and Panthers organizations before landing in Colorado.

#20 Bruins defenseman Matt Grzelcyk has had trouble staying healthy but has six points (1 G, 5 A) in nine games since returning to the lineup and, maybe more interestingly, has seen his ice time bump up over 22 minutes per game in the past three games, recording 17 shots on goal in those three games.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick