Jake Oettinger – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – DALLAS STARS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 17:51:49 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 26: Dallas Stars Right Wing Mikko Rantanen (96) in action in the second period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Dallas Stars on March 26, 2025 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswear)

For three years running, the Stars came up short of returning to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2020, losing in the Western Conference Final. Dallas dueled with the Winnipeg Jets atop the Central Division but came up 10 points short of the Presidents’ Trophy winners. A 106-point season is nothing to sneeze at, although the second-place finish led to a first-round battle with the Colorado Avalanche that went seven incredible games. A second-round battle with Winnipeg saw the Stars come out on top in six games, but by the time they met Edmonton for the second straight year, they were completely out of gas and lost in five. Dallas is an elite team whose five-on-five metrics and power play performance are average but have a top five penalty kill and one of the best goalies in the NHL in Jake Oettinger. Oh yeah, they’ve also got elite scorers like Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston and a resurgent Matt Duchene to go with defenders like Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. They’re more than set but getting over the hump in the playoffs is proving to be difficult.

What’s Changed?

After losing in the Western Conference Final for the third straight season, the Stars dismissed coach Pete DeBoer and brought back former head coach Glen Gulutzan. A lot’s changed in Dallas since Gulutzan ran the Stars bench the first time from 2011 to 2013. He spent the past seven seasons as an assistant coach in Edmonton and coached the Calgary Flames for two years prior to that. While Jamie Benn is still around, everyone else is a new face for him to coach. The Stars’ offseason saw them send Mason Marchment to Seattle for draft picks and Matt Dumba and a pick to Pittsburgh for defenceman Vladislav Kolyachonok in salary cap moves. Dallas re-signed Matt Duchene to a four-year, $18 million deal and captain Benn for one year, $1 million ($4 million with bonuses). They also brought back Radek Faksa in free agency for three years, $6 million and Colin Blackwell for two years, $1.55 million.

What Would Success Look Like?

Nothing short of a return to the Stanley Cup Final will sit well in Dallas. After getting so close for three straight years, losing to Vegas once and Edmonton in back-to-back years, the time has been right now for the Stars to win their second Stanley Cup. With Robertson, Rantanen, Johnston, Duchene, Heiskanen, Harley and Oettinger as their core, they’re built to win. Their depth is also exceptional all over the ice, albeit slightly thinner after cap moves this summer. Still, Dallas has drafted well for years and has plenty of talent that’s arrived and is on the way up.

What Could Go Wrong?

Making a coaching change with a team that’s already an established winner can be tricky. If Gulutzan can’t hit the same notes or change things for the better with the Stars, it’ll lead to a lot of second guessing about his hiring and DeBoer’s dismissal. There have been rumours abounding about Jason Robertson’s future in Dallas and whether or not the 26-year-old impending RFA will be able to re-sign with the Stars or not given the salary cap situation. Although the cap is going up over the years, Rantanen’s eight-year, $96 million extension set the bar, right or wrong. If Dallas struggles, talk of moving Robertson will no doubt increase, especially since the Stars will also need to re-sign RFA-to-be Thomas Harley as well. If Dallas comes up short of the Stanley Cup, it could set up next summer to be a very difficult one to navigate.

Top Breakout Candidate

Although he wasn’t banked upon in big minutes or situations, we got a glimpse of what Mavrik Bourque can do in the NHL last season. He had 11 goals and 14 assists in 73 games last season while averaging 12:41 in ice time. With Logan Stankoven gone to Carolina and Mason Marchment in Seattle, it’s Bourque’s time to shine for the Stars. Two years ago, Bourque had 77 points in the AHL including 26 goals and was a 20-goal scorer the season prior to that with Texas. He’s learned the way to produce there and now with an increased role with Dallas, it’ll offer him the opportunity to show what he can do.

Forwards

Jason Robertson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	37	40	77	0.94

Those wondering what happened to Jason Robertson since his 109-point season should look no further than his shot and setup rates. He isn’t the same high shot volume player he used to be and while the rate he creates scoring chances at has stayed pretty level, but he isn’t taking shots from all over the zone like he used to and that catches up to you sometimes. He’s also not setting up as many shots and part of that is not having Pavelski hanging out of in front of the net to tip in errant pucks and passes. Robertson still manages to produce at a high level despite that. He is an excellent finisher, making the most out of fewer shooting opportunities and has elite-level hockey sense with knowing where to be an anticipating where the puck is going. His defensive game is probably never going to get the love it deserves either, as the Stars are rarely hemmed in their own zone when he is on the ice. He’s not a fast skater but makes up for it with great positioning and making quick one-touch passes to get through the zone. Robertson’s poor start to the year hurt some of the national media perception, with only nine goals in the first three months of the season, but he finished the season strong to get to the 35-goal mark for the third time in his career. The best players always find a way and Robertson is someone who can take awhile to start heating up. Once he does, the goals start coming in bunches and he can carry Dallas’ offence on his back.

Roope Hintz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	26	39	65	0.82

There’s being streaky and then there’s Roope Hintz’s 2024-25 season. Almost half of his points came during a 33-game stretch including a torrid month of March where he had 21 points in 13 games. This isn’t suggesting that he had a bad first half of the season because he was one of Dallas’ only consistent goal-scorers to start the year, finding the back of the net 18 times in the first 35 games. The assists were just nowhere to be found. This carried over into the post-season where he had a respectable 12 points in 17 games, with all of them coming over seven games. Similar to Robertson, he set the bar so high for himself a few years ago that his 2021-23 form might be impossible to reach again. With Hintz, the decline in offence happened when the game wasn’t played off the rush, which was a team-wide issue for Dallas last season. He struggled to get pucks back and find ways to get open when he couldn’t play in open ice and it was a little strange to see because he was one of the Stars best players when they were a forecheck-dominant team for years. The rest of the team has also improved at playing off the rush, so Hintz has become less of a go-to guy there, which means fewer puck touches and he can’t quarterback the offence like he might prefer to. He was also attached at the hip to Robertson for most of the year, so their production tends to mirror each other, and Hintz wasn’t getting as many setups while Robertson was going through his slump. The Stars can still make do with Hintz if he’s a 65–70-point guy now with game-breaking skill off the rush, they’re just hoping for more consistency with how he gets those points.

Mikko Rantanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	40	52	92	1.15

Rantanen’s roller coaster season was well documented. A contract dispute with the Avalanche led to a mid-season trade to Carolina and he ended up in Dallas after letting the Hurricanes know he had no interest in signing there. His brief stint with the Hurricanes was filled with him creating a boatload of chances but struggling to score and this trend continued in Dallas. In the playoffs, they structured their forwards corps around getting him going and it paid off in the Colorado series. They deferred to Rantanen for most of their offence, as he led the team in zone entries, exits and overall shot assists. He exploded late in the Dallas series, essentially winning Game 7 on his own and carried them through the early stages of the Winnipeg series too. Unfortunately, he scored only one goal for the rest of the playoffs after his Game 1 hat trick against the Jets but it wasn’t for lack of trying on his part. This has been the story with Rantanen for most of his career, the goals come in bunches and he is borderline unstoppable when he’s on. It’s then followed by 10-15 game stretches where he can’t score but will have at least four great chances a game. Being the focal point of the offence is what Rantanen wanted after thriving for years as MacKinnon’s wingman and he’s proved that he can carry the ball for stretches. He plays at a slower, deliberate pace which went against how Dallas played most of the season, so it was easy to understand why there was adjustment period with him. A full year with a more stable environment will let us know if he is truly a star player on his own or not.

Wyatt Johnston

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	39	75	0.91

Keeping with the theme of the rest of Dallas’ roster, Johnston his second 30-goal season in a row despite scoring only three in his first 21 games. It followed a similar pattern to how his sophomore year went. It’s unclear why Johnston scores in bunches like he plays a more straight-forward game compared to the rest of Dallas’ top forwards. He can create his own shot without needing someone to set him up, goes to the net and has the hands to elevate the puck. He’s also filling the void Pavelski left by becoming excellent at getting chances off deflections, so it’s always frustrating for the Stars to see Johnston start the year so slow when he’s always doing the right things. Sometimes you have to preach patience in situations like this and while it doesn’t always pay off, Johnston eventually finds ways to produce regardless of how the year starts. His reputation in Dallas as a clutch playoff performer also grants him some leeway, scoring another series-clinching goal against Colorado. Becoming more of a driver off the rush is where he can improve next, as that’s the only area where he defers to his linemates more. He’s a good skater, but lanky and doesn’t maneuver around defenders with the puck as smoothly as he does away from the play or in the offensive zone. He’s a very good player right now with room to grow.

Matt Duchene

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	25	42	67	0.86

Probably the most skilled player in the league who will never be considered a superstar, evidenced by the Stars getting him to re-sign at a $4.5 million cap hit despite an 30-goal, 82- point season that would get most players a huge payday in the open market. The only things working against Duchene are his age and his reputation as a poor playoff performer. His performance this past spring didn’t do anything to help that either, as he scored only one goal though 18 playoff games. This is despite him being one of Dallas’ better players at producing scoring chances, so it wasn’t for lack of trying. The offence doesn’t come as easy for Duchene in the post-season, as he’s a player who thrives when he can play with speed and start give-and-gos off the rush. When the game slows down and he has to play in more confined areas, he doesn’t create the same level of chances. He can still get to loose pucks and has the skill to make plays to the front of the net, but the passes are rarely on the tape and the chances are rushed with more defensive pressure. Watching him closely is a good barometer of how thin the margins are in the playoffs. Grade A chances turn into blocked shots or Grade B chances very quickly, and Duchene always seems to struggle to find the space he needs to be a game-breaking player. Still, his regular season play is quietly among the best in the league, and he helped carry the stars through the early part of the season while their top guys were struggling. He might not be a playoff performer, but he’s a player who will at least get you there.

Jamie Benn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	14	27	41	0.55

Now one of the longest-tenured players in the league, Benn enjoyed a nice career renaissance under Pete Deboer, becoming a fixture on the power play again and producing like a top sixer. This year saw a return back to earth for the Stars captain, scoring only 10 points with the man advantage despite consistent deployment here. He moved all over the lineup at even strength, which is the burden you carry as a center/wing hybrid sometimes. Benn had his issues with playing Dallas’ up-tempo style for most of the year. He can carry the puck in and lead the rush when the play is connected out of the zone, but he had issues making plays out of his own end under pressure. Covering for some of the Stars weaker puck-movers on defence is part of the job description and Benn had his issues getting knocked off pucks with a defence that couldn’t always bail him out. He also had a habit of getting caught flying the zone when Dallas tried to go off the glass and the turnovers were tough to recover from. It wasn’t all bad, though. His line could generate chances, and Benn still plays a strong game fighting for pucks along the goal line. His five-on-five game offensively is still good enough and some of the issues he had defensively can be covered up with more structure. Re-signing in Dallas on a cheap one-year deal, Benn will likely accept whatever role he gets, but he can still play relatively high in the lineup if needed.

Tyler Seguin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	18	26	44	0.69

Limited to only 20 regular season games with yet another hip surgery, Seguin was another player that carried Dallas through the early part of the season. Not only did he score at a point-per-game pace, but he was also producing chances at a rate that was among the league’s elite. It was a true “turn back the clock” moment before he was sideline for essentially the rest of the regular season. He couldn’t match this production in the playoffs, scoring only one goal and seeing his five-on-five scoring chance contribution rate drop from 13 chances per 60 minutes to eight per 60 minutes. Still above the league average but a far cry from what he was doing in the regular season. The effects of the hip surgery wasn’t affecting his ability in terms of getting around on the ice, as he could rely on his linemates to do the puck-carrying and be the trailer. His finesse and execution was just off. There were a lot of passes that were just off the mark and he didn’t have the burst to take the puck to the net when he needed to, instead looking for tips from the perimeter. Seguin’s return to form after numerous hip procedures has been nothing short of spectacular, as there was a brief period where we wondered if he would ever be an effective NHLer again. He was on pace for another 20-goal season before going on injured reserve this year too. While not the same player he used to be, Seguin is a great guy to have in the middle of the roster, and we will see how he does after a full offseason of rest and recovery.

Mavrik Bourque

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	21	25	46	0.60

Expectations are high for Bourque as one of the stars of Dallas’ AHL club, but there wasn’t a need for the rookie to produce immediately with the depth of Dallas’ roster. He could do a little of everything to excel at the pro level. He’s always first to pucks, has a lethal wrister and has the speed to play whatever role you want. Dallas eased the youngster into their lineup, playing him sparingly but giving him linemates who would allow him to play his game in the offensive zone instead of worrying about checking. Bourque’s role was mostly away from the puck, acting as the trailer or the high forward on most of his goals and taking advantage of some great setups from the likes of Duchene and Benn. He scored a few goals into open nets through great anticipation and showed off a nice one-timer on the power play on a few others. As a righty with a heavy shot, it’s a weapon most teams wish they could have. Even after 73 games, we’ve still only seen glimpses of what Bourque can do because he didn’t get a lot of puck touches per game. There weren’t a lot of direct setups from him and this year seemed more about getting his feet wet than cutting him loose. 11 goals with that deployment isn’t nothing, though. Forcing the coaching staff to keep him in the lineup in the post-season is next on the checklist for Bourque.

Sam Steel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	7	20	27	0.34

Becoming part of the penalty kill can take you from a fringe roster player to a regular, just ask Sam Steel. While the former first rounder of Anaheim hasn’t scored like he was projected, he has found a niche in Dallas as a defensive workhorse. Playing more of the possession-oriented style of defence, Steel along with Colin Blackwell did an excellent job of intercepting cycles and turning them into rushes the other way. Scoring on them was a secondary concern while they were on the fourth line. Steel himself plays with a high motor and thrives on the forechecking game, using his speed to disrupt breakouts and he has the skill to capitalize on turnovers when they happen. He was a trusted player for Pete Deboer, playing more minutes than your typical fourth liner while getting some spot duty in the net-front position on the power play. With the new coaching staff and similar players on the roster it’s uncertain if Steel will have the same level of trust but his resume on the penalty kill makes him hard to take out.

DEFENCE

Miro Heiskanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	9	38	47	0.60

There is nobody happier about Thomas Harley’s emergence as a number one defenceman than Miro Heiskanen (and maybe the Stars coaching staff). They don’t always play together but they are a dominant defence pair when they do. Heiskanen’s late season injury robbed the Stars of seeing more of these two together and Miro himself was putting up excellent numbers at even strength, as Dallas owned 59% of the expected goals with him on the ice. Dallas’ shift to becoming more of a rush team had some effects on Heiskanen. He was less involved with the offence than he was the last few seasons, always helping start exits but not leading many himself. The Stars defence had a tendency to go off the glass more if they didn’t have an outlet and it limited some of what Heiskanen could do offensively. He was still among the league leaders for defencemen in controlled entries but deferred to the forwards after gaining the line since the Stars wanted the puck on their sticks more. Playing alongside Harley also affected some of his offence, as Harley was the more dynamic of the two in the offensive zone and he had no problem handing the reins over in that instance. It’s somewhat of a return to what Heiskanen was early in his career where he did everything you wanted offensively but never got rewarded for it on the scoresheet because he wasn’t one of the last two players to touch the puck. A surprising decline in power play production also hurt him in this department, but Dallas doesn’t have much to worry about when it comes to their stud blue liner.

Thomas Harley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	17	38	55	0.70

There were a lot of things working against Thomas Harley. Dallas didn’t have a consistent partner for him, he was only on the second power play unit early in the season, and his main support guy in Miro Heiskanen was lost to injury. He still thrived and established himself as an undisputed number one defenceman. He is a powerful skater with great range and is elite at anticipating where the play is going. It made him thrive with Dallas’ emphasis on rush play this year because he could quickly turn defence into offence and he’s excellent at acting as the extra forward when leading or joining the rush. His anticipation was a weapon in the offensive zone as well, scoring most of his goals by reading where the puck was going and not needing to call for a pass or set up a shot. This was especially true in overtime where he scored a couple of big goals including the series winner against Winnipeg. He gets from the blue line to the top of the face-off circles without much effort and he was doing this more regularly after Heiskanen’s injury. Some defencemen play more conservatively when tasked with more responsibilities, but Harley went in the opposite direction, playing more aggressive but also with a lot of composure. It earned him a reserve spot on Team Canada’s Four Nations roster and it won’t be a shocker to see him in the Olympics next year.

Esa Lindell

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	5	20	25	0.31

You’ll be hard pressed to find a defenceman with a more rigidly defined role than Esa Lindell. He is out there to block shots; break plays up and just be a general disruption in any way he can. He’s one of the best in the game at using his stick to kill plays and is automatic with clearing the puck out of the zone, which can be a good or bad thing depending on who you ask. It is common for him to play the entire two minutes of the penalty kill because of how trusted he is with the coaching staff and how well he conserves his energy. He is on a shortlist of players who fit the “defensive defenceman” role to a T because you can watch him play one shift and figure out what his role is. The problem with how Dallas uses Lindell has always been more about the players around him rather than his own play. Dallas likes using him with other slower shutdown defencemen in the playoffs and it hurts Lindell’s’ game more than it complements. His specialty is putting out fires in the defensive zone and it becomes a prolonged game of chasing the play around with no one to help get the puck out. His pair routinely gets exposed for a high number of chances and goals against in the post-season because of this. It’s a balance the Stars are still trying to figure out.

Nils Lundkvist

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
44	1	7	8	0.18

The hope for Lundkvist is that he can get a fresh start with the new coaching staff. Early in his Stars career, it was common for him to only play a few shifts before getting benched for the rest of the night. His ice time was a little more consistent last year on the third pair, but he was still heavily sheltered. As a smaller, offensive defenceman, it can be difficult to earn the trust of the coaching staff. Every mistake you make gets magnified and Lundkvist never had much confidence to play his own game. A surprising stat with him is that he was one of the worst defencemen on the team at generating controlled zone exits, which is troubling considering he’s a puck mover. The one thing the has going for him is that he brings something different to the table from the other Stars defenders competing for a third pair spot. He could complement a taller defenceman like Liam Bischel nicely and he brings a little more upside than Lyubushkin or Petrovic. The downside is that his calling card is the power play and the two spots are occupied by both Heiskanen and Harley. The league is also moving away from smaller defencemen unless they’re game-breakers and Lundkvist hasn’t shown enough to be in that category.

GOAL

Jake Oettinger

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
62	37	17	6	4	0.911	2.42

For better or for worse, the Dallas Stars are embracing the old-school era of goaltending - and they're sticking with a single de facto starter in net, rising and falling with Jake Oettinger and the contract that's going to pay him $8.25 million every year until 2033. It remains an intriguing strategy for a team that hasn't managed to walk away with a championship since the turn of the century, particularly given that Oettinger, who was nearly a Vezina finalist in 2023, hasn't managed to replicate his league-leading statistical performance in either of the two years since then. Perhaps most frustrating of all is that for Dallas, his middling numbers don't accompany any sort of linear regression that analysts can point to in his game from a read, tracking, or structural proficiency standpoint. Most of his lack of magic looks like fatigue and energy preservation; he still plays the game with some of the best precision in the league, but he doesn't make the daring saves and utilize the kind of explosive energy that he might be able to with even 10-15 fewer starts on the regular season. That could change if Dallas opts to give backup Casey DeSmith a bit more game time action, which they would be well within their right to do; his numbers last season looked great, and he's proven during his tenure in Pittsburgh that he could easily handle those extra 10-15 games to give Oettinger a bit more usage management.

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – The NHL season is winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like rookies Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson Blake, as well as veterans Duchene and Gallagher.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 17:15:05 +0000

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 23: San Jose Sharks Center William Smith (2) skates with the puck during the first period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks on February 23, 2025, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, with the NHL season winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like Sharks rookie Will Smith, Ducks rookie Cutter Gauthier, and Hurricanes rookie Jackson Blake, as well as veterans like Matt Duchene, Brendan Gallagher.

#1 San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith was brought along slowly at the start of the season, with limited ice time and healthy scratched for some games, but he has really hit his stride in the second half of the season. In his first 40 games, Smith had 15 points (6 G, 9 A) with 56 shots on goal while playing a little more than 14 minutes per game. In 30 games since then, Smith has 29 points (11 G, 18 A) with 65 shots on goal while averaging 17:30 of ice time per game. He had a goal and three assists in Wednesday’s 8-7 overtime loss at Minnesota, playing more than 20 minutes for the third time in his past five games.

#2 It’s not as if he is unknown, but the season that 34-year-old Dallas Stars centre Matt Duchene has put together has probably flown under the radar a bit. He was held off the scoresheet Thursday night, snapping a seven-game point streak, during which he had 10 points (3 G, 7 A), lifting him to 81 points (30 G, 51 A) for the season. It is the second time in his career that Duchene has surpassed 80 points. The first was in 2021-2022 when he was with Nashville.

#3 Buffalo Sabres centre Peyton Krebs has turned into an unlikely source of offensive production late in the season. In his past nine games, Krebs has eight points (3 G, 5 A), albeit with just 13 shots on goal, so maybe not the most sustainable production. Nevertheless, he has tied career highs with nine goals and 26 points and has been a solid two-way centre for the Sabres and Buffalo has outscored the opposition 40-35 with Krebs on the ice during five-on-five situations.

#4 Veteran Montreal Canadiens right winger Brendan Gallagher has stepped up his game as the Habs make a strong late push for a playoff spot. In his past dozen games, Gallagher has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 26 shots on goal. He had just five points in his previous 18 games, so this rise in production has come at just the right time and the crease-crashing winger is up to 21 goals and 38 points on the season, his most in both categories since the 2019-2020 season.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks are not in contention for a playoff spot, but they are getting to see what their future could look like, and they are getting some quality production out of second-year centre Leo Carlsson and rookie left winger Cutter Gauthier late in the season. Since the beginning of February, Carlsson has contributed 28 points (11 G, 17 A) with 43 shots on goal in 28 games. Gauthier scored his 20th goal of the season Thursday at Los Angeles, and since the 4 Nations Face-Off, he has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) with 70 shots on goal in 25 games.

#6 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake continues to make great progress and is finishing his first NHL season skating on the Hurricanes’ top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis as well as getting first unit power play time for the ‘Canes. Since the trade deadline, Blake has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 37 shots on goal in 15 games.

#7 Second year Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster is playing hard even as the Flyers have fallen out of playoff contention. In his past eight games, Foerster has contributed nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 20 shots on goal. He recorded the first hat trick of his career on Wednesday against the New York Rangers and is up to 22 goals for the season. He is skating on a line with Noah Cates and Bobby Brink in addition to getting first unit power play time for the Flyers.

#8 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot has had an excellent all-around season and is finishing the season in fine form. In his past eight games, Chabot has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 12 shots on goal and 22 blocked shots. Jake Sanderson is the quarterback on Ottawa’s top power play, so Chabot has only managed seven power play points this season, but his 40 points represents the third time that he has hit that threshold in his NHL career. Moreover, the Senators have outshot, out-chanced, and outscored the opposition with Chabot on the ice.

#9 When the Colorado Avalanche acquired Charlie Coyle at the trade deadline, it was not exactly an earth-shattering deal. Coyle had struggled in Boston this season, putting up 22 points (15 G, 7 A) in 61 games. He didn’t do much upon first arriving in Colorado, managing two assists in 13 games, but Coyle has started to turn things around, with seven points (1 G, 6 A) during a four-game point streak. While he is centering Miles Wood and Jimmy Vesey at even strength, Coyle is getting first unit power play time with Nathan MacKinnon nursing an injury.

#10 This has been a forgettable season for the New York Islanders, but they have seen quality development from right winger Simon Holmstrom, who has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak. After scoring 25 points as a rookie last season, Holmstrom has produced 45 points (20 G, 25 A) this season and is holding a regular top six spot in the lineup, skating on a line with Maxim Tsyplakov and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#11 Joel Eriksson Ek returned to the Minnesota Wild lineup for the first time in more than six weeks and he buried four goals on eight shots in Minnesota’s 8-7 overtime win against San Jose. Eriksson Ek has 54 shots on goal in his past 13 games and that kind of shot generation does offer more support for his point production. Eriksson Ek gets first unit power play time in Minnesota and skates between wingers Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy at even strength.

#12 Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk returned to action Thursday after missing almost a month with a lower-body injury. Despite missing that time, Pionk has enjoyed a strong season, and his 37 points (9 G, 28 A) is his highest point total since 2019-2020. Pionk tends to offer value for fantasy managers because he delivers hits and blocked shots – he is two blocks away from his third straight season with at least 100 in both categories.

#13 Moving to the Calgary Flames from the Philadelphia Flyers has not brought immediate results for winger Joel Farabee, who is in the midst of a 14-game stretch without a goal, and he only has three assists in that span. Farabee is skating on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, two veterans who have shown that they can consistently control play, but Farabee also has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.4 percent in Calgary, and that has to improve.

#14 It is understandable that a winger like the Oilers’ Zach Hyman will see his production fall off when Connor McDavid is out with an injury, so maybe he will be rejuvenated now that No. 97 has returned to action. Hyman has gone six games without a point, recording a dozen shots on goal. Hyman’s goal production has been cut in half, from 54 last year to 27 this season, but this late slump is difficult for fantasy managers, especially now that McDavid is back in the lineup.

#15 There is a similar situation in Colorado, except going in the other direction, as Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has just one assist in his past nine games. It could be encouraging that Lehkonen has 21 shots on goal in his past five games – he’s getting chances – but there is also the possibility that Nathan MacKinnon will be held out of the Avs lineup late in the season as they try to ensure that their superstar forward is healthy for the playoffs, and that makes it less likely that Lehkonen will bounce back too much before the postseason.

#16 It’s not just MacKinnon that could be done for the regular season as there are other stars that are dealing with injuries and may not return during the regular season. That includes Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Sam Bennett, Dylan Holloway, Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil, Aliaksei Protas, and Gabriel Vilardi, all of whom offer value to fantasy managers.

#17 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Teuvo Teravainen has had a relatively productive season, tallying 57 points (15 G, 42 A), but his shot rate is declining, and he is slumping because of it. He has just one assist in his past seven games but also has just six shots on goal, and that is more consistent with his shot rate this season, which is down from 1.87 per game last season to 1.37 per game this season. He is skating on a line with rookie Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, which should be competent enough to generate some offence, but Teravainen isn’t right now.

#18 Since March 20, the leading goaltenders in terms of save percentage (minimum five appearances): Darcy Kuemper (.942), Jake Oettinger (.942), Anthony Stolarz (.936), Anton Forsberg (.935), Andrei Vasilevskiy (.934), Connor Hellebuyck (.930), Casey DeSmith (.922), Sergei Bobrovsky (.921), Jordan Binnington (.920), and James Reimer (.920). While there are plenty of expected names – the top goaltenders in the league continue to play well – backups like Forsberg and DeSmith have value when they play, and Reimer has backstopped Buffalo’s late-season surge. Reimer is perhaps the most surprising and thus more available for fantasy managers.

#19 Since the 4 Nations Face-Off in February, Artemi Panarin and Tage Thompson are tied for the league lead with 13 five-on-five goals, ahead of David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie (both Bruins have 11), Jason Robertson and John Tavares, who both have 10. Cutter Gauthier, Jordan Kyrou, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Marchenko are next with nine. In terms of total goals, Thompson leads with 18, ahead of Alex Ovechkin (16), Tavares (16), Wyatt Johnston (15), and Tuch (15). Pastrnak, Panarin, Robertson, Geekie and Sidney Crosby all have 14 and Nick Suzuki has 13. The leader when it comes to individual expected goals in that time is Auston Matthews, with 13.44 and he has scored 10 goals in 23 games.

#20 With a nod to the future, the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes have both signed top prospects from the KHL. Montreal inked Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in the 2024 Draft, after he had an exceptional season with St. Petersburg SKA, producing 49 points (19 G, 30 A) in 65 regular-season games before adding five points in six playoff games. Demidov is expected to make his Habs debut on Monday against the Chicago Blackhawks and he will do so with great expectations from a fanbase that has been enjoying his development from afar all season. Carolina signed defenceman Alexander Nikishin, a third-round pick in 2020 who has turned into one of the premier defence prospects in the league. Nikishin is 6-foot-4 and has put up 157 points (45 G, 112 A) in 193 games across the past three seasons in the KHL. The Hurricanes have a solid veteran group on the blueline, so they don’t need to rush Nikishin into the lineup, but he will likely bring a higher upside and could prove to be good enough right away that he can’t be denied a spot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Ovechkin, McDavid in the hunt for Gretzky’s records – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 28 Dec 2024 19:45:13 +0000

I remember almost a decade ago writing about the possibility of Alex Ovechkin someday breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record. It wasn’t in the context of a prediction that it would happen, but instead, it was about it was about what would need to happen for it to be possible. While Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky seems all but inevitable at this point, it’s taken remarkably good health -- his time missed this campaign due to a fractured fibula notwithstanding -- and complete defiance of Father Time in the back half of his career to make this possible.

Ovechkin never had a campaign like Gretzky enjoyed in his prime, but Gretzky fell hard in his 30s from a goal-scoring perspective, never hitting the 40-goal milestone after the 1990-91 campaign and collecting 176 goals over his last 562 career appearances after accumulating a jaw-dropping 718 markers over his first 925 games.

However you slice it, surpassing Gretzky’s goal record is still incredible and something that would have seemed impossible for anyone when Ovechkin started his NHL career. It made me wonder, though, if Gretzky’s goal record can be overcome, is there a world in which his all-time points record could be bested too?

Gretzky was an even more dominant playmaker than a goal scorer and finished with 2,857 points. To date, no one else has even crossed the 2,000 mark with Jaromir Jagr coming the closest at 1,921. Still, we seem to be in a new age of elite forwards. From 1996-97 through 2021-22, no player recorded 130 points in a single season. In 2022-23, Connor McDavid ended that by scoring 64 goals and 153 points, and then Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid all finished with over 130 points last year -- 144, 140 and 132, respectively.

It remains to be seen if anyone will breach this mark again in 2024-25, but MacKinnon (14 goals, 60 points in 37 games), Leon Draisaitl (24, 52 in 34) and Mikko Rantanen (20, 53 in 37) all have a shot. I also wouldn’t rule out McDavid breaching that milestone for the third straight year. Although he’s behind the pack with 15 goals and 49 points through 31 outings, McDavid has found his rhythm by providing 12 goals and 39 points over his past 20 contests.

So could any of them match Gretzky? Although it’s anticlimactic, the answer is almost certainly not. McDavid is the most interesting of them, but even in his case, he’s at 350 goals and 1,031 points in his age-28 season. By the end of Gretzky’s age-28 campaign, he already had 637 goals and 1,837 points. Like Ovechkin did, perhaps McDavid will enjoy greater longevity than Gretzky, but even then, the gap is too great. Let’s assume McDavid produces at a 120-point pace over the next 13 campaigns, including 2024-25. Even in that extremely unlikely scenario, that would leave McDavid with 2,542 points -- more than 300 shy of Gretzky.

No active player is in a better position than McDavid either. MacKinnon and Kucherov are both older than McDavid and have fewer career points. The Great One’s points record appears safe for at least another generation. Still, if McDavid does stay fairly healthy and continues to perform at an elite level into his late 30s, then a run at 2,000 points might be viable. That alone would be one of the greatest achievements in hockey history.

It's also arguably harder to score now than it was in Gretzky’s day. When Gretzky set the record with 215 points in a single season in 1985-86, the league average in goals per team per game was 3.97. The best McDavid’s ever seen by that metric is 3.14 in 2022-23 (it’s down to 3.03 this year). Just for the fun of it, let’s do some back-of-the-napkin calculations to attempt to normalize McDavid and Gretzky’s offensive contributions relative to their era. Do not take this seriously as these are some incredibly simplified calculations, but I’ve regressed or enhanced the scoring of each player for each season by a percentage equal to the gap between that campaign’s league average from 3.00 goals per team per game. For example, Gretzky’s 137 points in 1979-80 when the league was scoring at a rate of 3.51 becomes 117 points.

This little experiment is unquestionably to McDavid’s benefit. I was just interested to see if taking this extremely raw approach would be enough to close the gap. The answer is that Gretzky still wins handily. Even under those circumstances, Gretzky would have recorded 1,304 points over his first nine campaigns, including six consecutive campaigns of at least 150 points from 1981-82 through 1986-87. Gretzky’s 215-point campaign is brought down to 162 points, but that still tops anything that McDavid has done, whose 153-point campaign is lessened to 146 points. For McDavid’s part, he has 993 points over his first nine campaigns (running through 2023-24) under this adjusted standard.

Gretzky’s career point total would also still stand at 2,392 (keep in mind, league scoring did begin diminishing in the latter half of Gretzky’s career, so that period wasn’t diminished as much by these calculations as his early seasons), making it difficult for McDavid to overcome.

That goes to show how good Gretzky was, even when compared against the biggest star of his generation, McDavid. There is one record McDavid could realistically take from Gretzky, though: The all-time points total in an Oilers jersey. Gretzky accumulated 1,669 points during his time with Edmonton, and if McDavid re-signs with Edmonton after his existing contract expires in the summer of 2026, which seems reasonable after the Oilers locked up Draisaitl, then McDavid should be able to eventually become Edmonton’s all-time leading scorer.

Calgary Flames

Tues vs. VAN, Thu vs. UTA, Sat vs. NSH

The Flames have a somewhat light schedule with three games next week, but they’ll spend all that time at home. Calgary will host the Canucks on Tuesday, Utah on Thursday and the Predators on Saturday. Vancouver is having a solid campaign, but Utah and Nashville aren’t currently in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau has been fantastic in recent weeks, providing six goals and 13 points across his past 10 appearances. I still don’t love him long-term, though. Even after factoring in his hot streak, his 25 points through 34 appearances isn’t special, and while his 13 goals in 2024-25 is more impressive, that’s on the back of a likely unsustainable 21.7 shooting percentage -- his career average is 12.5 -- so I think it’s just a matter of time before his scoring pace slows. With that disclaimer out of the way, he's certainly a nice player to have for now.

Matthew Coronato is also hot, supplying two goals and four assists across his active four-game point streak. Taken with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Coronato excelled with AHL Calgary in 2023-24, recording 15 goals and 42 points over 41 appearances, but he’s been somewhat hit-and-miss at the NHL level this campaign, totaling nine goals and 18 points through 29 outings. In a couple of years, Coronato might be a mainstay on fantasy lineups, but for now, he’s more of a streaming option.

If you’re making a short-term play on Coronato, it’d be worth it to consider his linemate, Blake Coleman, too. The 33-year-old Coleman has eight goals and 17 points in 34 outings, but he’s also hot with three goals and six points over his last five games.

Carolina Hurricanes

Tues @ CBJ, Thu @ FLA, Sat vs. MIN, Sun vs. PIT

The Hurricanes have a strong 21-12-1 record, but that’s due to their strong start. More recently, Carolina has been a middling 7-7-1, so the Hurricanes have room for improvement as the calendar turns to 2025. They’ll look to get going on the road against Columbus on Tuesday and Florida on Thursday. Afterward, the Hurricanes will return home to host Minnesota on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Although Carolina has won just one of its last four games, some players have been effective over that stretch. Brent Burns had a goal and an assist in Friday’s 4-2 loss to New Jersey, marking his first multi-point game since Nov. 5. He has three goals and 11 points through 35 appearances, putting him on pace to finish with less than 30 points for just the second time dating back to 2013-14.

Losing his spot on the first power-play unit to Shayne Gostisbehere has significantly hurt him. Burns had 20 of his 43 points with the man advantage in 2023-24, but he has no power-play points this campaign. In terms of 5-on-5 points, he’s probably going to end up roughly in line with his total from last season, so his drop is pretty much entirely driven by that change in his usage. That’s worth keeping in mind in case circumstances result in him getting on the first power-play unit later in the campaign.

Sebastian Aho hasn’t had any problems collecting power-play points, already accumulating 14 of them in 2024-25. He’s also been a reliable contributor, being held off the scoresheet just three times over his past 16 outings (six goals, 19 points). He has 11 markers and 36 points in 35 outings overall. As long as he stays healthy, the 27-year-old should reach the 80-point milestone for the third time in four campaigns.

Jack Roslovic isn’t going to match Aho in terms of total points this season, but Roslovic has been a regular contributor recently. He has recorded a point in four of his past five appearances (one goal, four points). Interestingly, Roslovic has also recorded over 16 minutes in each of Carolina’s past two games, well above his season average of 13:40 of ice time across his first 33 outings. We’ll have to see if he continues to get that kind of workload, or if he regresses back toward his norm.

Colorado Avalanche

Tues vs. WPG, Thu vs. BUF, Sat vs. MTL

The Avalanche have been red hot recently, posting a 7-2-0 record from Dec. 7-22. They’ll look to maintain that strong play next week in home matches against Winnipeg, Buffalo and Montreal on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Although injuries were certainly a factor in Colorado’s up-and-down play early in the campaign, goaltending was a major problem. Recently, netminding has been part of Avalanche’s strength. Scott Wedgewood has looked fantastic since joining the Avalanche from Nashville, posting a 1.93 GAA and .932 save percentage across six appearances with Colorado. Similarly, Mackenzie Blackwood has been dominant with the Avalanche with a 3-1-0 record, 2.03 GAA and .931 save percentage in four starts since being acquired from San Jose.

Colorado made a big bet towards the idea that this new combo is everything that they want it to be by inking Blackwood to a five-year, $26.25 million contract extension Friday. That’s a startling commitment to a 28-year-old goaltender with a 3.05 GAA over 219 career appearances. However, the Avalanche’s decision isn’t without merit.

While Blackwood didn’t look nearly as good with the Sharks -- he had a 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances before the trade -- he was doing well relative to the team in front of him. His goals saved above expected is plus-5.9 this campaign, per Moneypuck, which is good for 16th place. That suggests he’s been in the upper half of starters in 2024-25 when you separate him from the defense in front of him. It’s a similar story in 2023-24. He had an ugly 3.45 GAA and .899 save percentage in 44 outings with the Sharks, but San Jose was terrible, and Blackwood’s plus-2.4 goals saved above expected last campaign suggests he held his own under very difficult circumstances.

Blackwood was especially good in 2019-20. His 22-14-8 record, 2.77 GAA and .915 save percentage in 47 appearances might not scream dominant, but he ranked fifth in the league in goals saved above expected (plus-7.9) that year. It hasn’t always been good -- he struggled in that metric in 2020-21 and 2021-22, but when his career has been taken as a whole, it’s fair to say that he has been consistently put into difficult circumstances and made the most of them. Now in Colorado, which has been solid defensively, ranking 11th in xGA/60 at 2.93 this season, Blackwood is finally in a position to put up great top-line numbers in addition to solid analytics.

Dallas Stars

Tues vs. BUF, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. UTA

Dallas will spend the upcoming week at home, hosting the Sabres on Tuesday, the Senators on Thursday and Utah on Saturday. Of that competition, only Ottawa (18-14-2) entered Friday’s action in possession of a playoff spot.

The Stars have managed to score no more than three goals in any of their past seven games, and they’ve produced two or fewer in five of those contests. Losing Tyler Seguin (hip), potentially for the rest of the regular season, has been felt, but Matt Duchene has also fallen hard from his hot start. After scoring 12 goals and 27 points through 22 outings, the 33-year-old has just a goal and three points over his past 12 appearances. Getting Duchene going again will be critical to the Stars’ long-term success.

At least Jason Robertson has done well lately. His seven goals and 23 points through 34 games is still well below what you’d want to see out of a player of that caliber, but he does have two goals and eight points across his past eight appearances.

Roope Hintz has also found his scoring touch, netting nine goals over his past 16 outings, including four goals in four games from Dec. 16-23. Hopefully, the holiday break didn’t cool him off -- he was held off the scoresheet Friday, though he did record four shots.

The lack of offense has weighed on goaltender Jake Oettinger. He’s held the competition to 16 goals over his past seven appearances but has a mediocre 3-4-0 record over that span due to the lack of support.

New Jersey Devils

Tues @ ANA, Wed @ LAK, Sat @ SJS

The Devils are on the road next week, but the competition is favorable. They’ll play in Anaheim on Tuesday, LA on Wednesday and San Jose on Saturday.

Being on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for the Devils anyway. They have a 12-5-0 away record compared to 12-6-3 at home. Not every player has traveled well, though.

Timo Meier is a great forward to utilize in New Jersey with his eight goals and 18 points through 20 appearances, but he’s been limited to five goals and nine points on the road, so you might want to exercise caution with him next week. Ondrej Palat is a major offensive force in either scenario, but he’s also noticeably better at home (four goals and 10 points in 20 appearances) than on the road (three goals and five points in 17 outings).

On the flip side, Dougie Hamilton has been somewhat quiet in New Jersey with two goals and eight points across 21 outings, but he’s accumulated three goals and 15 points in 17 games during the Devils’ travels. Paul Cotter has held his own on the road too with five goals and nine points over 17 appearances, but his home production stands at just two goals and four points through 21 outings.

Jacob Markstrom is an interesting case. He’s 9-4-0 with a 2.09 GAA on the road and 10-2-2 with a 2.13 GAA at home, so clearly, he provides value in either scenario. However, his save percentage is starkly different at home (.898) compared to the road (.926). The Devils do allow significantly fewer shots at home (23.0) than they do away (27.6), so it seems Markstrom adjusts well to the higher workload, and his save percentage reflects that.

New York Rangers

Mon @ FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat @ WSH, Sun @ CHI

The Rangers have been in freefall, dropping 13 of their past 17 games. They’ll try to end the slump next week, starting with a game in Florida on Monday. New York will then host the Bruins on Thursday before playing in Washington on Saturday and in Chicago on Sunday.

If you’re looking for hot skaters, you’ll need to go elsewhere. No Rangers player has amassed more than two points over the team’s past six games. That’s just sad for a team with this much talent. Igor Shesterkin is doing well, posting a 2.63 GAA and a stellar .926 save percentage over his last six outings, but the Rangers have done so poorly offensively, that the 28-year-old netminder has just a 2-4-0 record over that span.

Outside of Shesterkin, is there anything at all here for fantasy managers? If you’re looking for help in other categories, then yes. The Rangers’ slump hasn’t impacted Vincent Trocheck on the draw, for example. He has been among the most dominant centers in that category this year, winning 393 of his 641 opportunities (61.3 percent), including 69 of 117 across (59.0 percent) the Rangers’ anemic past six games. Sam Carrick doesn’t get as many chances on the draw, but he has a 58.3 percent success rate across 283 faceoff opportunities this year and is 39-for-66 (59.1 percent) over the last six contests.

Will Cuylle is also still out there throwing his body around. He ranks fourth in hits with 127 and dished out 15 over the aforementioned six-game span. Trocheck has been even more aggressive in that span with 21 hits, bringing him up to 112 overall, which is good for 12th in the league.

Cuylle was especially good in fantasy earlier in the campaign because he was bringing offense as well as grit. He has been limited to four points (two goals) over his past 11 appearances, so the multi-dimensional aspect of his game is gone, but he has been getting tested on the first power-play unit recently, which is a rarity for him -- he basically wasn’t used with the man advantage at all over the first 16 games of the season -- and perhaps that will help spark him. If nothing else, at least he's bringing something to the table during the Rangers’ team-wide slump, which is more than could be said for some other members of the squad.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Tues vs. NYI, Thu @ NYI, Sat vs. BOS, Sun vs. PHI

The Maple Leafs will begin next week with a home-and-away series against the Islanders on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. They’ll then host Boston on Saturday and the Flyers on Sunday.

Injuries have been a recurring storyline for the Maple Leafs this season, and right now there are two of great importance: Auston Matthews’ upper-body issue and Anthony Stolarz’s knee injury.

Stolarz’s knee problem is the clearer cut of them. He underwent a procedure to remove a loose body from the area on Dec. 18 and will be unavailable until mid-to-late January as a result. That puts more pressure on Joseph Woll, who has unfortunately gone cold at a bad time. Woll has allowed at least three goals in his four starts from Dec. 14-23, though he did hold the struggling Red Wings to two goals on 25 shots Friday. Matt Murray is also getting a chance to help fill the void, and he stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 6-3 victory against the struggling Sabres on Dec. 20.

Toronto was in a four-way tie for first in goals allowed per game with 2.55 through Dec. 12 because of how reliable the Woll-Stolarz duo has been for much of this campaign. Toronto has looks more vulnerable in terms of goaltending now, but perhaps the win against Detroit signaled the end of Woll’s cold spell. Even if it hasn’t, Stolarz should be back in the coming weeks.

The greater concern is Matthews. He missed nine straight games from Nov. 5-27 because of knee problems and those issues have pushed him back to the sidelines. By the time next week begins, Matthews will have missed Toronto’s past four games due to the injury, and it’s not clear when he’ll be back.

The priority is to get Matthews healthy for the playoffs, whatever that takes, especially because the 22-12-2 Leafs seem to be able to win even without Matthews. Still, the battle for playoff position in the Atlantic Division is fierce, and even if the absence of Matthews doesn’t cost Toronto many wins, it might still end up playing a role in the difficulty of the Leafs’ first-round matchup.

From a fantasy perspective, this is unfortunately the risk that you take with Matthews. He’s one of the best goal-scorers of his era and perhaps all time, but injuries have been a recurring problem. The 2023-24 campaign was just the second time in his career that he played at least 75 games.

Winnipeg Jets

Mon vs. NSH, Tues @ COL, Thu vs. ANA, Sat vs. DET

The Jets have a good schedule ahead of them. They’ll host Nashville on Monday, play in Colorado on Tuesday and then return home for matches against Anaheim and Detroit on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Colorado is the only one of those adversaries with a winning record.

At the top, we highlighted just how amazing Wayne Gretzky was by showing just how big the gap is between his totals and McDavid’s potential career finish, even under ideal circumstances for McDavid. In terms of goaltending, the equivalent to Gretzky is arguably Martin Brodeur. In addition to being the all-time winningest goaltender -- no one comes even close to Brodeur’s regular-season total of 691 career victories -- Brodeur won the Vezina Trophy four times and stands as the last back-to-back winner of the trophy in 2007 and 2008.

Connor Hellebuyck might be the next to achieve that incredible feat. He won the award in 2024 after posting a 37-19-4 record, 2.39 GAA and .921 save percentage across 60 regular-season games, and he’s looking even better in 2024-25. Through 28 starts, Hellebuyck has a 22-5-1 record, 2.07 GAA and .927 save percentage. That gives him a clear edge over his closest competitors, Jacob Markstrom (19-6-2, 2.11 GAA and .914 save percentage) and Filip Gustavsson (16-5-3, 2.26 GAA and .922 save percentage). Hellebuyck also won the trophy in 2020, so he’d be just one behind Brodeur overall.

The 31-year-old Hellebuyck has continued to cruise as the campaign progresses, posting a 7-0-1 record, 1.85 GAA and .929 save percentage over his past eight games. It helps that the Jets have given him plenty of support offensively (they rank second in goals per game with 3.69) and are adequate defensively (they rank 15th in xGA/60 at 2.96).

On the offensive side of things, the top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi is on fire, supplying nine, eight and seven points, respectively, over the past four games. Connor is having the best campaign among those three overall with 21 goals and 47 points through 36 games, though Scheifele isn’t far behind with 21 goals and 42 points across 36 outings. There has been a bit of inconsistency with this unit in terms of its offensive production, but not to the extent where it’s been a meaningful problem. As long as the trio stays healthy, which was an issue last season, those three should go down as one of the top lines of 2024-25.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Boston Struggling, Colorado returns to health and much more

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:47:10 +0000

Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

If you compare every team since the beginning of the salary cap era (2005-06), you’ll find that the Boston Bruins rank as the best defensively, allowing an average of just 2.55 goals per game. That’s not shocking when you consider that the Bruins have gone from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask to the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman over that period.

Elite goaltending has simply become the norm in Boston, and it didn’t look like it was going to change. Sure, Ullmark was dealt to Ottawa for cap reasons, but the 25-year-old Swayman seemed ready to take his place as Boston’s clear No. 1, and yes, the negotiations got tense, resulting in him missing the preseason, but in the end, he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract, ending the saga with a resolution that both sides can be happy with. Except, noone has much reason to be happy with the Bruins right now.

Boston is a middling 8-8-2, a dramatic drop from its 47-20-15 finish in 2023-24, and Swayman has been part of the problem with his 5-6-2 record, 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage in 13 starts. He leads the league in goals allowed (42), and his goals saved above expected is minus-4.6, per Moneypuck, which puts him in 65th place through Thursday’s action -- not exactly the type of return you’d expect from someone with an $8.25 million cap hit.

Maybe missing the preseason put him behind the curve, contributing to his shaky start, but he doesn’t seem to be stabilizing as the campaign goes on. To be fair, he does have his moments, but his good starts have been counterbalanced by disastrous ones, like allowing six goals on 22 shots en route to an 8-2 loss to Carolina on Oct. 31 or surrendering seven goals on 38 shots in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Swayman also just has a lot of uninspired starts sprinkled in there -- nine of his 13 outings have involved him surrendering at least three goals.

Maybe it’s the pressure of the contract getting to him, especially with how much he appeared to have to battle to get that deal. There’s a big mental aspect to goaltending, so it’s not hard to see how a slow start, coupled with the new deal, and perhaps even the absence of his longtime friend and goaltending partner Ullmark, could all snowball to create this outcome. Whatever the case, though, Boston is in waters that have been rare for it since the start of the cap era: They have a problem between the pipes.

Colorado has endured its own goaltending issues, but at least the Avalanche are tied for 10th offensively with 3.47 goals per game and could do even better now that their forward corps is largely healthy. They’re still missing Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Ross Colton (foot), but Jonathan Drouin (upper body), Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) and Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) are all back, giving them far more options than they’ve had in a while.

This is being written before Friday’s game against Washington, which is set to see the return of Nichushkin, but it looks like the tentative plan is to run two elite lines. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen typically play together, giving the Avalanche one nearly unstoppable unit, but instead, Colorado is slated to break them up, putting MacKinnon with Lehkonen and Drouin while Rantanen will share the ice with Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. If that works out, then it could make things extremely tough on the opposition's defense. It’s a luxury the Avalanche arguably couldn’t afford earlier in the season because the quality of the linemates for MacKinnon and Rantanen wouldn’t have been sufficient to split them, but at this point, it’s something they can experiment with.

It also means Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko are now firmly in the bottom six. There was an opportunity for one or both to show what they could do with greater responsibilities when the team was ravaged by injuries, but neither stepped up. At this stage, it seems reasonable to project that Ivan and Kovalenko won’t have significant fantasy value this year, but at least they’re still okay complimentary pieces for the Avalanche.

All-in-all, Colorado’s offense looks strong at this point. The Avalanche are already on a roll, winning four of their past five games, and Colorado could continue to shine from here.

Anaheim Ducks – Mon @ DAL, Tue @ CHI, Fri vs BUF

You can get whiplash going from a conversation about the Avalanche’s offense to Anaheim’s. MacKinnon has 33 points through 17 games by himself. That equals the combined point totals of the Ducks’ top four scorers -- Troy Terry (11 points), Mason McTavish (eight), Leo Carlsson (seven) and Ryan Strome (seven).

The Ducks are consequently unlikely to generate much offense when they play in Dallas on Monday, but Anaheim might have more success in Chicago on Tuesday and when hosting Buffalo on Friday.

Health will be a factor in that. McTavish has missed the Ducks’ past two games because of an upper-body injury, but he’s day-to-day, so there’s a real chance he’ll be fine for next week’s action.

Even with him back, though, the Ducks need help on offense. A resurgence of Trevor Zegras would be the most obvious boost. However, he had just 15 points in 31 contests in 2023-24 and has diminished further to just three points through 15 appearances this season -- a far cry from his back-to-back 60-plus point campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He’s still just 23 years old, so it seems wrong to suggest he’s washed up, but then what is the problem?

First off, his lone goal this campaign was scored on an empty net, so you’d have to go back to April 13 to find the last time he beat an NHL goaltender in a regular-season game. He’s averaging 6.3 shots per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which is down from 8.1 in 2021-22 and 7.2 in 2022-23, so that doesn’t help. Seven of his 27 shots this year have been fired from a high-danger position, which puts him below the league average of 7.9 among forwards. All that’s bad, but not to the extent where he should have literally zero goals against goaltenders.

Moneypuck gives him an xG of 3.6, he has a PDO of 951 along with exactly zero secondary assists and his IPP of 42.9 is leagues below his career average. All that suggests some of his offensive woes are due to poor luck. Still, three points in 15 appearances is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him having a good campaign even if the luck was balanced.

Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there, and there are some indications that he’s been shifting to a more complete game despite his lack of offense, as Patrick Present of The Hockey News recently noted. Plus, he’s still young, and when coupled with him attempting to adjust his game, some growing pains are understandable. Don’t expect this to be a big campaign from him, but also don’t write him off yet.

Boston Bruins – Mon vs CBJ, Thu vs UTA, Sat @ DET

We talked about Swayman’s woes up top. Perhaps it will help him that the Bruins’ opponents next week rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of goals per game. Boston is set to host the Blue Jackets on Monday and Utah HC on Thursday before playing in Detroit on Saturday.

Swayman is the headline issue for the Bruins, but he isn’t the only one. The forward corps is also leaving something to be desired. We’ve seen better out of David Pastrnak (eight goals and 17 points through 18 games) and Brad Marchand (five goals and 13 points), but both are doing well enough, even when measured against the high standards they’re held to. The problem is no other player on the team has reached double digits in points.

Elias Lindholm, who signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract over the summer, was the Bruins’ big offseason get to solidify the team up the middle. However, he hasn’t been that great. After scoring two goals and five points over his first three games with Boston, Lindholm has been limited to four assists across his past 15 outings. To be fair, he’s known for his two-way game, and his relative CF% and FF% are outstanding at plus-8.8 and plus-12.2, respectively. Still, you’d like to see more scoring out of him when he’s spending almost all of his 5-on-5 time alongside at least one of Pastrnak and Marchand.

Pavel Zacha has left something to be desired too with three goals and seven points through 18 outings after finishing 2023-24 with 59 points. He might be heating up, though. Zacha has two goals and four points through his past four appearances, so perhaps he can carry that momentum into next week, especially given the mediocre nature of Boston’s upcoming competition.

Chicago Blackhawks – Tue vs ANA, Thu vs FLA, Sat @ PHI

Chicago will host the Ducks and the Panthers on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida is a tough team, but the Ducks and the Flyers haven’t looked good so far in 2024-25.

Not that the Blackhawks have impressed either with their 6-10-1 record. Petr Mrazek has largely held his own with a 2.79 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 appearances, which are solid numbers when you consider that Chicago ranks 28th in xGA/60 (3.39), which suggests Mrazek hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates defensively.

They also haven’t helped Mrazek offensively. Chicago is tied for 29th with just 2.41 goals per game, and even Connor Bedard has left something to be desired with three goals and 13 points through 17 appearances. Bedard is on an eight-game goal-scoring slump with four assists in that span, but let’s not be too hard on him. He’s still just 19 years old, so some streaky play is expected, and he has a healthy enough 21 shots during that slump, so eventually he’ll break through.

I’m more disappointed in Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract over the summer to come to Chicago from Carolina and has been primarily used alongside Bedard. However, Teravainen hasn’t been able to generate much of anything in 5-on-5 play with the young star. The 30-year-old has four goals and eight points through 17 appearances with just two of those points (one goal) coming at even strength. Interesting, his 5-on-5 xG is also just one, so the issue isn’t exactly bad puck luck.

Bedard has also been tried with Taylor Hall and/or Tyler Bertuzzi, but significantly less often than Teravainen. Philipp Kurashev has seen significant time alongside Bedard as well, though Kurashev has just three goals and four points through 16 outings. That’s a massive drop from Kurashev’s 54-point showing in 2023-24, and the decline is largely due to a lack of assists.

The line mixing is likely to continue to happen as long as Chicago’s offense remains cold. In the long run, it would be nice to see Kurashev and Bedard rekindle some of their 2023-24 chemistry -- they showed up together on the scoresheet 25 times last season. If we start seeing some of that, then Kurashev would become a good buy-low candidate.

Dallas Stars – Mon vs ANA, Wed vs SJS, Sat @ TBL

Dallas will start the week by hosting the lowly Ducks and Sharks on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Stars will then travel to Tampa Bay to play the Lightning on Saturday.

Matt Duchene will look to extend his recent success during that stretch. He has a phenomenal eight goals and 17 points across his past 10 appearances, including two goals and five points over his last two games. He’s been seeing time alongside Mason Marchment, who is also on fire with two goals and seven points over his past two outings, so that duo could do a lot of damage, especially against rebuilding squads like Anaheim and San Jose.

At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas could use more out of Roope Hintz. His six goals and 10 points through 15 outings aren’t bad, but it’s below the pace Dallas has come to expect after seeing Hintz record at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of his previous three campaigns. Hintz did endure a four-game scoring drought from Oct. 26-Nov. 7, but there’s a silver lining here because he’s found the back of the net twice over his past three games, so perhaps the worst is over.

The action is also spread out enough that Jake Oettinger might start in all three of those games. He’s 8-3-0 with a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 11 appearances in 2024-25. He’s also coming off two really strong victories, stopping 43 of 46 shots in blowout wins against Pittsburgh and Boston.

Detroit Red Wings – Mon @ SJS, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs BOS

The Red Wings will play in San Jose on Monday before hosting the Islanders on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Detroit will be looking to gain some ground after a mediocre 7-7-1 start.

Detroit has to be disappointed with Vladimir Tarasenko, who inked a two-year, $9.5 million contract over the summer but has just two goals and four points through 14 appearances. This one is a bit of a “the chicken or the egg” problem. Tarasenko is averaging just 13:41 of ice time while typically serving on the third line alongside Jonatan Berggren and Marco Kasper. That’s not a recipe for success or the top six role many envisioned when he signed his deal. At the same time, he hasn’t done anything to force himself into a bigger role. From Oct. 22-Nov. 2, he appeared in five games without even recording a single shot.

You’re not going to move up in the lineup with that kind of play. On the plus side, he has logged an assist and seven shots over his past two outings, so maybe we’re witnessing the start of him getting some going. I’m skeptical, but it’s worthy of monitoring.

Detroit could certainly use another source of secondary scoring. The Red Wings rank 28th offensively with just 2.47 goals per game. Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have done fine with 14, 13 and 12 points, respectively, through 15 appearances and Patrick Kane is holding his own at 35, providing three goals and 10 points. The rest of the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, though, and no one aside from maybe Tarasenko jumps out to me as a struggling forward to watch.

That includes Michael Rasmussen. He was taken with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he has never even reached the 35-point mark and has just two goals and four points in 15 outings in 2024-25. He’s a towering presence, but at the age of 25, I think it’s fair to believe that the offense isn’t coming.

Edmonton Oilers – Mon @ MTL, Tue @ OTT, Thu vs MIN, Sat vs COL

The Oilers will open the week with road games in Montreal on Monday and Ottawa on Tuesday. They’ll then return to Edmonton to host the Wild on Thursday and the Rangers on Saturday.

Edmonton had a mixed start to the season in part because of inconsistent offensive production, but it’s okay now: Connor McDavid remembered that he’s Connor McDavid. The superstar has posted three straight multi-point efforts, causing him to jump to six goals and 19 points through 14 appearances despite a weirdly human start in which he recorded three goals and 10 points in his first 11 outings -- good for others, not for him.

If McDavid has found his grove, then Edmonton is in a far better position, but the Oilers do still have some areas of concern. Stuart Skinner is still a mixed bag with a 5-5-1 record, 3.22 GAA and .881 save percentage in 11 outings. You’ll likely remember that Skinner had a terrible start to 2023-24 before turning a corner, and it could be argued that his Nov. 24 25-save shutout over Washington was when everything started working out for him last year. In other words, we’re getting to roughly the same stage of the year, and we’ll have to see if Skinner can once again find his rhythm or if he doesn’t enjoy that same kind of turnaround in 2024-25.

Edmonton’s offseason attempts at deepening the offense also haven’t paid off yet. Jeff Skinner has just three goals and six points while Viktor Arvidsson has two goals and five points. Arvidsson is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, so we might not see him this week. Meanwhile, Skinner has been relegated to the fourth line recently. Skinner has had a weird career full of amazing highs and significant lows. There’s consequently no guarantee that a turnaround is forthcoming this year, but if he does get another look on Edmonton’s top six, which I think is just a matter of time, then he’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

San Jose Sharks – Mon vs DET, Wed @ DAL, Thu @ STL, Sat vs BUF

I like to highlight teams who are set to play four games in a week over those with three or two games on the docket, but there aren’t many examples of that upcoming. San Jose is one of the exceptions. The Sharks’ busy schedule will begin by hosting the Red Wings on Monday. They’ll then play in Dallas on Wednesday and St. Louis on Thursday before returning home to face the Sabres on Saturday.

Naturally, if you’re going to watch Sharks hockey, the player you’ll be most interested in is Macklin Celebrini. Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he was out from Oct. 12-Nov. 2 due to a lower-body injury. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly quiet since, providing two goals Nov. 7 but also being held off the scoresheet entirely in his other four appearances dating back to his Nov. 5 return.

It's too small of a sample size to read too much into it, but Celebrini is a tremendous talent who is averaging 19:25 of ice time and has recorded 20 shots over six outings in 2024-25, so I expect him to start producing at a good pace as the campaign progresses.

In the meantime, Mikael Granlund has done his part. He has seven goals and 18 points in 18 games to lead the Sharks offensively this season. A lot of that was due to him recording five goals and 12 points across seven outings from Oct. 17-28, though. He’s been fine since, but his two goals and five points over his past eight contests are a noticeable decline. There might be some merit to selling him high, but I think his goal-scoring pace, which would lead to him finishing with 32 markers, has actual merit.

He’s never reached the 30-goal milestone before and finished 2023-24 with just 12 goals, but he’s traditionally been a very conservative shooter. That’s changed in a big way this year -- he's averaging a career-high 9.9 shots per 60 minutes, and that includes 14 high-danger shots, which puts him on track for 64, up from 44 last year. His increase in shots also means that his 10.9 shooting percentage isn’t significantly off his career average (10.3) despite his big jump in goals.

Granlund and Celebrini are currently centering different lines, but they share the ice on the power play. Although Sharks rank 23rd in terms of power-play percentage (16.4), that might improve as Celebrini gets going, which would also benefit Granlund.

Utah HC – Mon vs WAS, Thu @ BOS, Sat @ PIT, Sun @ TOR

Utah HC is another squad with four games on the schedule next week. The club will host the Capitals on Monday before a road trip that will place Utah HC in Boston on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Utah has been an interesting team. It got off to a 3-0-0 start fueled by some great offensive performances, but the scoring has cooled, and the club is now 7-6-3.

One positive is Mikhail Sergachev has messed well with his new team after being dealt from Tampa Bay in June. Sergachev has three goals and 11 points in 16 outings in 2024-25 while averaging 25:35 of ice time -- that'll be a career high if he maintains it for the full campaign. He also has a big power-play role and has collected three points (one goal) with the man advantage. It’s reasonable to project he’ll surpass the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career as long as he stays healthy.

Up front, Clayton Keller (six goals, 14 points), Dylan Guenther (seven goals, 13 points), Nick Schmaltz (12 assists) and Logan Cooley (two goals, 11 points) have been leading the charge, but none of them are especially hot right now. Nick Bjugstad is an interesting forward, though. He’s capable of being a solid secondary scorer, but he averaged just 13:20 of ice time this season, down from 17:27 in 2023-24. He did make his mark Wednesday, though, scoring his first two goals of the campaign to lead Utah to a 4-1 victory over Carolina. Bjugstad is getting a chance to play alongside Keller and Schmaltz, so he might be able to build off that strong showing.

That would help Utah, but what the club needs more than anything is reliability between the pipes. Although Connor Ingram has a respectable 6-3-3 record, his 3.40 GAA and .879 aren’t inspiring. Meanwhile, Karel Vejmelka is just 1-3-0, but he has a 2.37 GAA and a .926 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vejmelka get more work, perhaps leading to him starting in at least two of Utah’s games next week.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – DALLAS STARS – Team Preview

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 20:00:58 +0000

_{DALLAS, TX - APRIL 03: Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) catches the puck with his glove hand as Edmonton Oilers left wing Zach Hyman (18) looks on during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers on April 3, 2024 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)}

After reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2023, Dallas entered the 2023-24 campaign as one of the top contenders to capture the Cup. The Stars made their place among the league’s elites clear with their 52-21-9 showing in the regular season, led by a balanced offence featuring eight different 20-plus goal scorers (the average team had 3.8 players with over 20 goals). Jake Oettinger didn’t live up to his previous success in goal, posting a 2.72 GAA and .905 save percentage, but it was more than enough to put Dallas atop in the Central Division. Dallas once again made it to the Western Conference Finals after dispatching Vegas and Colorado, but the offence that served the Stars so well to that point managed just four goals over Games 4-6 of the series, resulting in Dallas’ elimination.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Dallas bought out the final season of Ryan Suter’s four-year, $14.6 million contract and lost Joe Pavelski, who decided it was time to retire despite having scored at least 25 goals in each of his past four campaigns. Dallas didn’t make any big additions over the summer, but it did add backup goaltender Casey DeSmith, and a pair of defensive defencemen in Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Losing Pavelski hurts, but Dallas still has a great forward corps. There’s the potential for this group to finish in the top five in the league in scoring, especially if Logan Stankoven shines in his first full NHL campaign. Adding Dumba and Lyubushkin should also make a team that was outstanding defensively -- Dallas finished third in xGA/60 at 2.72 last season -- even better, which will make life easier on Oettinger, who is a strong candidate for a bounce back season. Although back-to-back Western Conference Finals exits hurts, Dallas still has every reason to believe this group can win the Cup.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Of course, a better season out of Oettinger would be an important part of that. He ultimately wasn’t the key reason Edmonton eliminated Dallas, but it is worrying that the 25-year-old netminder struggled with consistency last season, especially when coupled with his lackluster showing during the 2023 playoffs. The offence might be a little overstated too. Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin are all well into their 30s now, so there’s a risk some of that all-important offensive depth might not be quite as potent going forward.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: It would be overly dramatic to suggest that Dallas is depending on Stankoven to come up big this season, but with Pavelski gone and some other key members of the forward corps moving further from their prime, Dallas is certainly hoping Stankoven can pick up a bit of the slack. He showed a lot of promise last season, scoring 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL contests along with six goals and 14 points across 24 regular-season games with Dallas. Stankoven also contributed a respectable three goals and eight points in 19 playoff contests. He’s just barely Calder Trophy eligible (had he played one more regular season contest last year, he wouldn’t be) and might end up as a strong contender for the award.

FORWARD

Jason Robertson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	51	87	1.06

It might be unfair to say Robertson took a step back last year, because expecting 100-points consistently is unreasonable. Still, not hitting 30 goals after scoring 40+ two years in a row was a little disappointing and it’s strange that it didn’t come with a massive shooting percentage drop. His line just didn’t generate chances at an elite rate like they had for most of his career. The decline of Joe Pavelski was a factor in this along with Dallas playing a more low-event game in general. What they did was still good, and Robertson’s individual chance production didn’t see much of a dip, but it’s easy to see why getting to 100-points again was a challenge with the environment around him. Robertson is such a meticulous player whose game is more about anticipation and being two steps ahead of the play, so linemate rapport is a big part of what makes him effective. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts this year with Pavelski gone. They got a glimpse of it in the playoffs where they were on different lines for the most part and Robertson struggled to be the instant offence cheat code he’s used to being. Robertson’s cleared a lot of hurdles, breaking into the NHL’s elite class despite not being a great skater or puck-carrier, so adjusting to life without Pavelski will be the next step. Expect 30 – 40 goals plus a similar amount of assists as last season and he can push 90 points.

Roope Hintz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	33	40	73	0.89

The top of the Stars roster figured out how tough it is to sustain elite-level production and heightened expectations. Hintz was another victim of that, recording his third 30-goal season in a row but seeing a major dip in his five-on-five production from the two previous years despite that. This along with a disappointing playoff run put a sour note on what was objectively another great season. This is what you have to get used to when breaking into the upper echelon of the league and there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Hintz sustaining this. So much of the Stars offence revolves around him because of his speed and how much he’s relied on for zone entries. Nobody else on the team can match what he brings there and how quickly he can go from 0 to 10 from a standstill which makes him tough to defend against even if teams prepare. He also has an excellent set of breakaway moves and is great at handling the puck even when he’s getting checked. Like Robertson, how he adjusts to the loss of Pavelski will be interesting. Hintz did a lot to drive the bus, but Pavelski’s role of creating space and getting to the net will be missed when the Stars aren’t playing off the rush. Although, the potential he and Wyatt Johnston showed is enough to get you excited about what they can do next year. 30 goals should be a lock next season along with a return to a point per game pace

Jamie Benn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	19	40	58	0.71

The resurgence of Jamie Benn is one of the more underrated events of the Pete DeBoer era. Ever since the coaching switch, the Stars captain is producing like a top-sixer again and his lines have dominated in terms of controlling goals and chances. Benn functions as somewhat of a Swiss-Army knife on his line, flipping between center and wing while acting as a playmaker for Wyatt Johnston. His hands are still elite, and he can really slow things down with how well he controls the puck below the goal line and along the wall. He is also very effective at prying pucks loose, especially in the neutral zone, which helped Johnston get some easy rush chances off lead-in passes. You would even see him fly the zone at times, which you wouldn’t expect from a player of his size who just turned 35. He will be one of the oldest players in the league next year, so Father Time catching up to him is always a concern, but if anything, Benn has gone in the opposite direction. Sometimes bringing a new puppy in the house can add some youthful years to your old house dog. Wyatt Johnston’s arrival might have done something similar with Jamie Benn, as did the late season call-up of Logan Stankoven. We will see if it continues as the Stars captain gets closer to 40. For next season, there is no reason not to think he can’t repeat those numbers.

Tyler Seguin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	22	26	48	0.67

The two members of Dallas’ old guard finding a second wind is a big reason why their Cup window remains wide open. Benn finding it again is a little less surprising than Tyler Seguin, whose career looked over after a post-labral tear surgery caused him to miss a full season. Since then, all he’s done is score 20+ goals three years a row while playing in all situations. He doesn’t have the burst or power that he used to, as he has to work harder to pick up any speed, but he shows flashes of it. He's had to become sneakier and more deceptive as a goal-scorer, relying on deflections and positioning more, but last year saw the return of his shot becoming a weapon. He was a master at getting himself open for one-timers and could be a threat from distance instead of just in front of the net. Getting paired with a strong puck-carrier in Matt Duchene ended up as a great two-way relationship, as they had great chemistry and made Dallas’ middle six a big problem for other teams. Finding ways to stay effective once their body slows down is a challenge for most players even when they don’t have major injuries and Seguin’s managed to break through that wall. 20 goals and 50 points should be the expectation here. Anything more would be a bonus.

Matt Duchene

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	19	33	52	0.70

A surprise buyout by the Nashville Predators ended up as windfall for Dallas as Duchene showed up and delivered in his one-year deal with the Stars. He gave their offence a shot in the arm. His calling card of making things happen off the rush was exactly what the Stars needed. He was a revelation for them for the first half of the season, scoring 23 goals through the month of February and giving the Stars rush game a major jolt. Since he entered the league, Duchene’s been one of the best players in the league at controlled zone entries. Between his speed and knowing which routes to take to get into the zone, it’s the one skill he has teams are going to covet. Translating that to results was a struggle for a couple years in Nashville, but he has mostly figured it out now, learning how to counter-attack more effectively and attacking the net with more focus instead of entering the zone only to cycle the puck. Dallas re-signed him for another year at a surprisingly low $3 million, given he just had a 65-point season. Duchene making his money in Nashville and his cold finish to the season, scoring only two goals in his last 20 games, might have played a factor in that. Regardless, he’s a solid piece for a very deep Stars team and has delivered consistently over the past few seasons. He can be relied on for 20 – 25 goals and 60 plus points.

Evgeny Dadonov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	13	18	31	0.48

Evgenii Dadonov’s brief audition with the Stars in 2023 was enough for them to re-sign him for two years and believe it or not, it will be the first time he’s spent more than one year on the same team since leaving the Florida Panthers as a free agent. His patience, playmaking and complementary skillset makes him a valuable piece to have, but a crowded roster could make it tough for him to get the same role that he’s used to. Joe Pavelski’s retirement opens up a spot, but Logan Stankoven likely takes one and it’s possible Dallas likes Mavrik Bourque more in a scoring role. Shipping out Ty Dellandrea, however, also opens a role in the lower lines, which is a spot that Dadonov performed well in during the playoffs. He’s usually brought in for his scoring and playmaking, but he plays a strong game along the wall and is great as a support valve for his defence on zone exits. It gives him some versatility should the Stars use him in a depth role and the threat to score is always there with him. Both with the shot and ability to get lost in front of the net. Given where he lands on the depth chart, projections should be kept modest and 15 goals and 30 points would be a contribution the Stars would welcome.

Wyatt Johnston

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	40	76	0.93

If you polled most hockey fans after the playoffs, they would tell you Wyatt Johnston was/is the Stars best player. Scoring 10 goals in 19 games and producing chances at an unprecedented rate, the youngster exploded onto the scene last Spring, making a name for himself after a strong 32-goal campaign. Recency bias goes a long way, but it’s hard not to be impressed with how he performed on the biggest stage, fighting through checks and finding different ways to get himself open for chances. He also wasn’t relying on rebounds and jamming the puck to inflate his chance numbers, showing incredible patience and efficiency with his shot to pick a corner or waiting for the goaltender to make the first move. It’s something you only see from the league’s best scorers, at least at the rate he was producing chances at. Watching him, it’s hard to believe he went the entire month of December without scoring a goal, but he made up the pace in March with 10 goals in 13 games, a torrid pace that carried over into the post-season. Dallas has been on a roll with getting impact players in the draft and Johnston is their latest home run.

Mason Marchment

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	21	30	51	0.64

Marchment had more than just a return to form, he set offensive career highs across the board while decreasing the number of penalties he took. After a tough first year both on and off the ice, Marchment looked worth the $4.5 mil. cap hit Dallas gave him and then some. He’s a player that old school hockey fans will appreciate for his hard-hitting style and those who follow the numbers also love because he has been one of the better play-driving forwards in the league for a few years now. Marchment has the body of a shutdown defenceman from the mid-2000’s, but there is a lot of skill in him, he’s got excellent vision and good instincts that made him a fit on a line with Seguin and Duchene for most of the year. Going to where the defence isn’t and using his strong shot rather than just aimlessly crashing the net to create his offence. He is also a good supporting player in the defensive zone and his size makes it very hard to get the puck away from him if he’s cycling with it. Like a lot of Dallas’ players, he did most of his work in the middle of the season and ended the year on a cold streak with four goals in his last 20 games. Despite that finish he hit career highs in goals, assists and points. Similar results are certainly within reach and if he can find his way into the top six, he could surprise.

Sam Steel

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	9	20	29	0.37

Steel isn’t the only high scorer from juniors that’s had trouble translating it to the NHL. In fact, he’s one of hundreds of players who have the same problem. With Dallas, it was the first time he seemed to find his niche as a spark plug type of forward. He can skate well and be a nuisance away from the puck, which is what the Stars were looking for on Radek Faksa’s line. He’s adapted the worker bee mindset and will accept the role he’s assigned. He didn’t deliver a lot of direct plays that resulted in goals, as he recorded a lot of secondary assists, but did get a few opportunities to show that first round skill. His shot is still pretty dangerous when he gets room and he’s a threat to break out offensively shorthanded. Dallas is a good place for him, even in a checking role, because they roll four lines and the fact that he can play center should keep him in the regular rotation. They liked him enough to keep him around for another year with an increased salary, so that says a lot about how he played even with the modest point totals.

DEFENCE

Miro Heiskanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	14	57	71	0.92

Heiskanen might finish his career with the most Norris votes without ever winning the award. A combination of never delivering elite level points, while other Hall of Fame worthy defencemen in the league also hitting their primes at the same time could leave him without any hardware in his career. In 2022-23, he finally got the power play time to put up 70 points and he still only finished 7th, mostly because there were two other defencemen who had 100-point seasons. Sometimes individual awards come down to bad luck and wrong place, wrong time. The case for Heiskanen is that he might be the best all-around defenceman in the NHL, when it comes to playing the tough matchups, being excellent at preventing chances and playing with the puck from the defensive zone out. Last year was also the first time he got to play with a more dynamic partner in Thomas Harley rather than a traditional stay-at-home guy. The Stars scored over three goals per 60 minutes with the duo on the ice but gave up almost just as much. Still winning the battle but not stifling offence the same way Miro usually does. Figuring out the balance here will be the challenge this season. He has the talent to break out at any time offensively, but values his defensive role, keeping a ceiling on his numbers for the time being.

Thomas Harley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	40	52	0.65

Harley stuck out like a zebra in a horse pasture when Dallas called him up late in the 2023 season. Aside from Heiskanen, they didn’t have a lot of puck-movers on their blue line, so his combination of size and mobility was really easy to notice when Dallas brought him back into the fold. Last year was his first true NHL season and once again, he filled a major hole on a Stars blue line that was lacking puck-movers. Bursting onto the scene as an offensive force, he played like a true rover given how often he jumped into the play, always looking to create offence. He was one of the top scoring blue-liners in the league and formed a dynamic pair with Miro Heiskanen. The duo were an auto-breakout when they were on the ice and could challenge for the top defence pair in the league if they stay together and clean up some of their play in the defensive zone. The latter is part of Harley’s learning curve in the NHL, as he will chase a lot of pucks down and overpay or miss some assignments as a result. Dallas shouldn’t take away the aggressive nature of his game, but there are steps he can take to become a more complete player. Sophomore seasons can be unforgiving for young defensemen so temper expectations and a repeat of last year’s numbers, with improved defensive play, would be a big step forward for the player and the club.

Matt Dumba

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	5	17	22	0.29

Dallas signing Dumba was a surprising move considering the last time he was on Stars fans radar was when he concussed Joe Pavelski in the 2023 playoffs. It wouldn’t be the first time a team acquired a player who was unpopular with the fans and Dumba’s hyper aggressive playing style could endear him to the Stars faithful. Dallas was in need of right-handed shots even before Jani Hakanpaa and Chris Tanev departed in free agency, so he fills a need and is a minute muncher at the very least. Sometimes that term is used to describe a player whose only redeeming quality is that, which is the point Dumba is getting close to in his career. His mobility, low center of gravity and love for delivering big hits are all assets, but a shoulder injury he suffered years ago destroyed his shot and he still hasn’t recovered from it. Not that every defenceman needs to have the big shot, but it was a key part of his game in his heyday with the Wild, now he’s more one-dimensional and his play in his own zone is very erratic because of his aggressive nature. So much of DeBoer’s offence runs through the point, so it will be interesting to see how he fits.

Nils Lundkvist

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	2	15	17	0.26

The trade Dallas made to get Lundkvist in 2022 was one of the more confusing deals in recent years, sending a potential first round pick to the Rangers to acquire the young blue liner who had only 25 NHL games under his belt at that point. Since then, he’s had some flashes of greatness and he’s a very unique player with how creative he is with the puck and how he can control play from the offensive zone down. Unfortunately, he is stuck in NHL purgatory right now. Not good enough to earn the coach’s trust, but too good to just get rid of for nothing, Lundkvist is in a tough spot with the Stars. Next year is a make-or-break chance for him, as Dallas’ blue line is short on righties and puck-movers, but he could easily fall out of favor with all the other veterans in the mix. His playoff performance encapsulates his current situation, where he was in the lineup for 12 out of 19 games but played an average of under four minutes a night. Maybe a new season with a fresh start will be what he needs.

GOAL

Jake Oettinger

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
61	39	16	6	5	0.911	2.54

Dallas, Texas is Jake Oettinger's world, and we're all just living in it. Even in the face of a mild statistical regression, it seemed like nothing the 25-year-old Oettinger did last year could keep the Stars from winning when he was in net. He put up a whopping 35 wins and three shutouts in 54 games, and the team's final numbers made it all but impossible to even remember that he posted ten fewer quality starts and two additional 'stinker' games than he had the year prior. That can be partially attributed to Dallas sitting firmly within their prime window from a roster standpoint but can also be credited in no small part to Oettinger's elite-tier read of the game. Even when he looked fatigued or rusty, his decision-making remained among the best in the league - and Dallas reaped the benefits. Add in a stellar instinct that elevates Oettinger's game to another tier when the game is coming to a close, and he remains one of the league's least stressful goaltenders to watch play; barring any major unforeseen regression, that shouldn't change any time soon. The biggest question mark in net for Dallas, frankly, is the team's somewhat lukewarm depth chart. Scott Wedgewood has been replaced by Casey DeSmith, who struggled last season in Vancouver and shouldn't be expected to take on more than 20-25 games next year. And behind their top two, Dallas has very little in the way of elite up-and-coming talent waiting in the wings. They aren't necessarily in want of anyone new, but it feels like a fairly huge gamble to enter the regular season so devoid of any kind of major safety net.

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW – WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL: Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers

Ryan Dadoun — Wed, 22 May 2024 12:27:02 +0000

DALLAS, TX - APRIL 03: Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) catches the puck with his glove hand as Edmonton Oilers left wing Zach Hyman (18) looks on during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers on April 3, 2024 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

If there’s a common thread between Dallas and Edmonton, it’s that these are two teams that have looked strong for years, and had some strong playoff runs, but haven’t been quite able to convert. Neither squad has cemented their legacy with a championship, but at least one of them will be reaching the Stanley Cup Final this year.

If it’s Dallas, it will mark the third and potentially final trip for Joe Pavelski. He’ll turn 40 in July and is set to become an unrestricted free agent, so it’s reasonable to wonder if this is his last hurrah. Not that the Stars need added motivation to fight for a championship but allowing Pavelski to cap his storied career with the Cup after Pavelski’s first two trips to the finals ended in disappointment, would doubtlessly be something his teammates would love to provide him.

This also might be Dallas’ only run with Matt Duchene on their side. After being bought out by Nashville in the summer of 2023, Duchene signed a one-year, $3 million contract with Dallas that has proven to be a steal. He had 25 goals and 65 points in 80 regular-season contests, and he delivered in dramatic fashion when Duchene scored in double overtime in Game 6 against one of his former teams, the Colorado Avalanche, to punch Dallas’ ticket for the Western Conference Final. Duchene’s success might have priced him out of the Stars beyond this campaign, but for now, Dallas is happy to have him.

Pavelski and Duchene didn’t perform like superstars this year, but they speak to Dallas’ strength: Its depth. The Stars had nine players breach the 50-point mark in the regular season and eight finish with more than 20 goals. To put that into context, the average team had 4.2 players finish with above 50 points and 3.8 exceed 20 goals. Dallas’ incredible depth allowed the team to finish with 3.59 goals per game -- slightly ahead of Edmonton’s star-studded offense’s average of 3.56 -- despite lacking a single player in the top 25 of scoring or the top 30 in goals. The advantage is that Dallas is somewhat slump proof -- if a couple of their key players are cold, that’s fine because they have others who can step up.

It also means that Dallas will almost always have legitimate scoring threats on the ice to challenge goaltender Stuart Skinner, who has already looked mortal in the playoffs with his .890 save percentage across eight contests. He faced fierce competition in the first and second rounds between LA and Vancouver, respectively, but Dallas will be his greatest challenge yet.

Not that Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger is in for an easy time. Far from it. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid aren’t just two of the best forwards of this era, they’re also some of the best playoff performers of all time. That’s not hyperbole. If you look at the all-time greatest postseason players by points per game (min. 10 playoff contests), the rankings from first to fourth go Wayne Gretzky (1.84 PPG), Draisaitl (1.66), Mario Lemieux (1.61) and McDavid (1.57). Sure, Draisaitl and McDavid might see their average diminish later in their career, but the fact that Edmonton has not just one, but two players who can rise to that level is insane.

That Edmonton hasn’t won the Cup yet -- or even reached the finals -- with McDavid and Draisaitl speaks to the shortcomings of the Oilers’ front office for much of their tenure. Despite featuring of the most dominant duos of all time, Edmonton struggled to put a worthy team around them for years, and now, with Draisaitl’s contract set to expire in the summer of 2025 and McDavid’s in 2026, time might be running out.

The silver lining is that Edmonton has made real strides in recent years to build out its group. The Oilers have enjoyed the rise of Evan Bouchard, who ranked fourth among defensemen with 82 points (18 goals) in 81 regular-season games this season and has done even better in the playoffs with five goals and 20 points across 12 outings. Meanwhile, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane and Zach Hyman provide the Oilers with some real scoring depth.

The Oilers even have some secondary scoring beyond that. Defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who has three goals and six points through 12 playoff outings, can be the hero every now and then. Warren Foegele has just two points in the 2024 postseason, but he finished the campaign with 20 goals, so opponents need to be wary of him. Similarly, Adam Henrique might have just a goal and an assist in six playoff appearances this year, but the veteran forward is a capable middle-six forward. Then there’s Corey Perry, who is more of an enforcer at the age of 39, but he has 206 career playoff contests under his belt and can chip in occasionally, so it’s entirely feasible that he makes his presence felt during this series.

Even Edmonton’s defense is arguably underrated. Edmonton’s xGA/60 in the playoffs ranks fourth at 2.64, and it tied for fourth in the regular season at 2.78. It often doesn’t feel that way because to start Skinner isn’t a safe bet in net, but the situation would be far worse for the Oilers if their defense didn’t pick up some of the slack.

It’s hard to make the argument that the Oilers are a complete team when they still have such a question mark between the pipes, but they’re far closer than they have been in years and have the benefit of growing from all their prior hardship, including the 2-9-1 start to 2023-24 that they managed to overcome.

Perhaps they’re finally ready to take the step to the Stanley Cup Final. The only trouble is that the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche were also teams worthy of the finals, not to mention recent Stanley Cup winners. They were both dispatched by Dallas. Can the Oilers succeed where those giants failed?

KEY MATCHUPS

Dallas vs. Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl

These are supposed to be player vs. player matchups, but while the Stars possess high-end forwards, they simply have no equivalent to McDavid and Draisaitl. Then again, they had no equivalent to the Avalanche’s Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, and Dallas still won that series.

The goal for Dallas isn’t to completely silence Edmonton’s top duo -- that's simply unrealistic -- but rather to minimize the damage. In the second round, MacKinnon and Rantanen each recorded two goals and five points in six contests. Those are solid offensive numbers, but it’s manageable to win a series when your opponent’s best forwards are limited to that level of output. Dallas will be aiming for a similar result in the Western Conference Final, though controlling McDavid and Draisaitl is arguably an even taller task.

Miro Heiskanen vs. Evan Bouchard

How impressive is Bouchard’s 20 points in 12 playoff contests? Even if he doesn’t score one more point in this run, he would still finish in a seven-way tie for the 22nd highest-scoring single postseason for a defenseman. In other words, his performance has bordered on historic even after just two rounds. That said, Heiskanen can also provide strong offensive numbers from the blue line. The Stars defenseman finished the regular season with nine goals and 54 points across 71 outings and has excelled in the playoffs with five markers and 13 points through 13 games.

This matchup seems to be in Edmonton’s favor, but Heiskanen is good enough that it wouldn’t be a shocking turn of events if he had the most points among blueliners in this series.

Zach Hyman vs. Wyatt Johnston

Hyman set a career high during the regular season with 54 goals, he blazed out of the gate in the playoffs, providing an unreal nine markers through six contests. He went through a four-game goal drought from May 10-16 but wrapped up the second round with markers in consecutive games, so he’s regained his rhythm going into the Western Conference Final.

Dallas doesn’t employ a 2023-24 50-goal scorer, but the Stars do feature a rising star in Johnston, who led the team with 32 markers in the regular season. The 21-year-old has been somewhat hit-and-miss in the playoffs, though. He was great in the first round, supplying four goals and seven points in seven outings. Against Colorado, he finished with a respectable three goals and four points in six games, but notably, he was held off the scoresheet in four of those outings. As I discussed before, Dallas’ key scoring strength lies in its depth and ability to weather cold spells, so a drought from Johnston is less likely to sink Dallas than a slump from one of Edmonton’s superstars.

That said, when he’s at his best, Johnston is a forward who can carry a game, and while Hyman isn’t someone who has been traditionally thought of in those terms, after the campaign he’s had, it’s clear that he’s also emerged as a major factor.

X-FACTOR

Dallas Stars: Not that the Oilers wanted to win this way, but they were helped a little in the second round due to injuries. Vancouver didn’t have goaltender Thatcher Demko (knee) for its second-round series against the Oilers (though Arturs Silovs did an admirable job filling in), and Vancouver was without leading goal-scorer Brock Boeser for Game 7 due to a blood-clotting issue. Dallas might also be unable to play against Edmonton at full strength. Roope Hintz hasn’t played since May 13 due to an upper-body injury and his status for the series opener is in question. Jani Hakanpaa (lower body) might also be unavailable for the start of the Western Conference Final.

It's also worth noting that Dallas’ penalty kill has struggled in the playoffs at 69.2 percent. That’s dangerously low going into a series against Edmonton, which has converted on a league-best 37.5 percent of its power plays in the postseason. The Oilers were similarly effective in the regular season, finishing fourth with a 26.3 conversion rate.

Edmonton Oilers: It’s got to be the goaltending. I’ve already spoken about Skinner’s playoff woes. It got to the point where Edmonton turned to Calvin Pickard for Games 4 and 5 of the second round with mixed results -- Pickard went 1-1 while stopping 51 of 56 shots over that stretch. Edmonton also has Jack Campbell as a possible Plan C. Campbell was dreadful in the NHL this season, posting a 1-4-0 record, 4.49 GAA and .873 save percentage in five contests, but he did stabilize in the minors, recording a 2.63 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 33 AHL outings. It would be a fun story if Campbell saw time in this series because it would be both a chance at redemption and revenge as he was originally selected by Dallas with the No. 11 overall pick in 2010, but only ever played one game with the Stars before eventually being dealt to LA in 2016. Still, if Edmonton ends up turning to Campbell, that’s a sign that something has already gone terribly wrong for the Oilers.

It's worth noting that all hope isn’t lost for Skinner. At times he’s brilliant, such as his 12-game stretch from Dec. 28-Feb. 9 in which he posted a 1.33 GAA and a .952 save percentage. If he starts to heat up now, the Oilers will possess the last piece they need to win the Cup.

PREDICTION

I’ll admit some personal bias here because I’d like to see Edmonton win. Part of that is just to see a Canadian team claim the Cup for the first time since 1993, and part of that is because I’m a fan of McDavid, and I’d like to see him receive the ultimate reward for all he’s done. However, while I’ll personally root for the Oilers to win this series, do expect them to get past Dallas? No.

It’s not that I can’t envision a path. The sheer number of offensive weapons Edmonton has certainly make it feasible, and there’s always the chance that Skinner gets hot at just the right time, but the reality is that Dallas’ offense, while not as flashy, is just as good. On top of that, the Stars have the more reliable goaltender in Oettinger.

Dallas was battle-tested against a deep, experienced team in Vegas and a star-studded squad in Colorado. In both instances, the Stars proved they could endure. Each series is a fresh start, and I am very interested to see how this one plays out, but when you ask me today which way this series will tilt, my answer is that it’ll go the Stars' way and that things will probably be wrapped up in six contests.

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche

Jesse Marshall — Tue, 07 May 2024 13:18:34 +0000

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 18: Colorado Avalanche right wing Valeri Nichushkin (13) and Dallas Stars defenseman Ryan Suter (20) set up in front of goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche on November 18, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Traditionally speaking, the last two winners of the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights series have gone on to progress to the Stanley Cup Final. In Dallas’ case, their immediate reward for slaying last years champion and looking to repeat the trend is a well-rested Colorado Avalanche squad that is forechecking as well as anyone remaining in contention right now. This series is one of many second round match-ups that feature two heavy hitters that are right in the mix to win the Stanley Cup from an odds perspective. Whereas you had a lot of dissimilarities between Colorado and Winnipeg in a match-up that featured an offensive powerhouse and a defensive juggernaut, we’re getting something a bit different this time. Recent history would have seen a Stars team that may have presented us with a similar dichotomy, as previous iterations of the Stars featured the same defense-first mantras as Winnipeg. However, make no mistake about it; this is a Dallas team that is good at puck possession, good at scoring, and has the offensive horses to get into a real back-and-forth battle with Colorado.

To that effect, I expect a lot of quick breakouts in this series and both teams to bring heavy forechecks with them into the battle areas of the ice. Colorado’s destruction of Winnipeg was largely driven by an exposure of Winnipeg’s defense and its lack of ability to operate under pressure. Colorado thrives in situations where they can get north in a hurry and create a bit of chaos in the opposition’s breakout. In this matchup, names like Thomas Harley, Miro Heiskanen, and Nils Lundkvist dot a Dallas blueline that is fully capable of skating or passing its way out of danger, despite the fact that Lundkvist’s minutes have been extremely managed and sheltered. Given the tenor of Dallas’ last series, I expect their defense to be up to the task of working around the Colorado forecheck. We saw from the first round that defensive specialists for Colorado were also capable of making these plays. Cale Makar, Josh Manson, and Sean Walker all exhibited calmness in the face of Winnipeg’s forecheck. Both of these teams will be looking to control the tempo of the game and create counter-attacking options from heavy forward presences in the opposition’s breakout.

With these teams featuring similar penalty-kill structures, I am excited to see which can break through and be a difference-maker in this series. The star power on both sides is going to be very real and I expect both teams to allow a wedge-like player to aggressively pressure the opposition power-play while the remaining group looks to tax any high-leverage passing lanes and converge on their respective goaltenders. The fact that these similarities exist make the special teams aspect of this series even more intriguing. For Dallas, they’ll need to find a way to get Roope Hintz on the scoresheet more than one time and the power-play could be the ticket to accomplishing that.

KEY MATCHUPS

Jake Oettinger vs. Alexandar Georgiev

Fans and pundits were waiting with baited breath to see if Jake Oettinger’s performance in the stretch run of the regular season was an anomaly and turns out, it was not. Oettinger’s flexibility and quick reflexes were on display, especially in the later half of the series, as he rounded out with a 1.95 goals against average against a rather potent Golden Knights offense, the definition of hot hand. On the flip side, Georgiev had a forgettable start to the Jets series that saw Avalanche fans calling for him to be pulled before game two. The result was a complete turnaround of form for the next four games that saw him stabilize and calm down in the net. That will have to continue against a Stars team that features pure snipers up and down the lineup. If Oettinger remains dialed in while Georgiev struggles, this could be a short series. On the flip side, if Colorado can continue to attack in transition and create odd-man breaks, Oettinger will be tested in major way. The easiest way to disturb a dialed-in netminder is to score some garbage-quality goals, and the Avalanche are fully equipped to do just that.

The Mittelstadt Line vs. The Johnston Line

I fully expect to see large swaths of this series where the opposing coaches opt to go power-for-power and directly line match as opposed to looking for specialized deployments. If that is the case, the Dallas Stars will need more out of Jamie Benn and Joe Pavelski on their second line. Wyatt Johnston has been a revelation for them and is as good of an off-puck player as you’ll find out there, but Casey Mittelstadt, Artturi Lehkonen, and Zach Parise are coming off of some dominant performances versus Winnipeg. While Benn and Pavelski have struggled to get going, Lehkonen scored in every single game of the Jets series. The Avalanche second line is intimidating and capable of long periods of possession in the offensive zone. Dallas will have to make sure their second line finds its scoring legs in order to keep this series from becoming lopsided.

Jason Robertson vs. Valeri Nichushkin

Both of these plays are phenomenal snipers and game-breakers in their own right. I expect a lot of fireworks between these two in terms of exchanging scoring chances and getting good looks at the net in high quality scoring chances. Robertson had a bit of a slower start with only three goals in his first seven games while Nichushkin blasted out of the game with seven goals in five games. These players are master manipulators with the puck and are cutting edge in terms of their release and snipe-ability. As critical pieces to their respective top lines, a trademark performance from either of these two players could significantly change the scope of this series.

X-FACTOR

Dallas Stars: Wyatt Johnston is your NHL leader in shots through the first round of the playoffs and has showcased why he’s such a 200-foot threat throughout the course of the year. Per NHL edge statistics, Johnston covered the third most distance of any player in the first round, a testament to his motor and off-puck ability to hunt down and pressure puck carriers and passing lanes. The breakout performance has been really fun to watch and if Dallas is going to win this series, they’re going to need more of the same from him moving forward. I expect Johnston would be in line for a promotion if the Stars top line shows signs of disarray and struggles to get going.

Colorado Avalanche: It seems like a cop-out to list Nathan MacKinnon here, but I haven’t mentioned him in this piece yet and he’s simply playing too well for me to not dive into it. MacKinnon showcased his ability to fool even the games best goaltender in round one by keeping his release hidden and posturing his body in unique ways that hide his next action. With Hintz struggling to score for Dallas, getting over the slump and onto the scoresheet becomes a lot harder when you have MacKinnon controlling the puck in the offensive zone for large periods of time. He only scored two in the first round but could have had a handful more.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

Jake Oettinger has been downright stellar for Dallas in goal, and I expect him to continue to show fight into the second round. The Golden Knights tested him in transition shooting and crease-to-crease work, but he showed no leaks in either area. His work in high-danger save situations was strong from open to close in the first round. He’ll be under siege from a strong Colorado transition game and in-zone cycle, but he’s playing extremely large in the net and showcasing the mobility that created a buzz about his game in the first place. I have to give a tip of the hat to Jason Robertson here as well. With only two goals in the first round, you have to expect his shot is going to produce some serious scoring chances for Dallas in the round to come.

If you took Artturi Lehkonen as an anytime goal scorer in the first round, you’re probably retired on an island somewhere. The Avalanche forward scored in every game of the first round and is playing on a line that is controlling the game at even-strength with authority. There’s a potential mismatch here with a Dallas second line that hasn’t quite got going yet outside of Johnston’s performance at center. I have to wonder what Peter DeBoer does with Chris Tanev in this series. Has the Avalanche second line been good enough that we potentially see DeBoer throw Tanev at it, or will he take the big minutes against MacKinnon? That will ultimately effect Lehkonen, but it may not matter either way with how well he’s been driving to scoring areas.

PREDICTION

I picked Dallas to win the Cup, so I have to stick with them here. Despite the stabilization we saw from Georgiev in goal, Oettinger is decidedly the better performer right now and gives Dallas a distinct advantage in net. I could see this series being another seven-gamer for Dallas, but I ultimately think they bring the battle-tested attitude they had from the Knights series right into this one. Facing down a 2-0 deficit, we saw Dallas become discernibly better in puck battles and breakouts. Their defensemen can shake their way out of danger and should be able to avoid some of the mistakes we saw Winnipeg make in turnovers in zone exits. I’ll take Dallas in seven games.

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Vegas Golden Knights v. Dallas Stars

Jesse Marshall — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 21:42:57 +0000

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) has words with Dallas Stars left wing Mason Marchment (27) (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Vegas Golden Knights v. Dallas Stars

Revenge is a dish best served cold, or in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Dallas comes into this series as the top seed in the West and one that looks to exact revenge on the team that removed it from last years conference finals. We get those same finals match-up now as a first-round series given Las Vegas’ status as a wild card team. The Golden Knights are, once again, a topic of discussion in the world of long-term injury reserve salary cap savings. Both Mark Stone and William Carrier, previously sidelined by injury, have been skating with the team in advance of this series. Each could return either before or within the first round, changing the makeup of the Golden Knights in a big way.

The season series belonged to Vegas, who swept all three and needed overtime in two to complete the task. That said, in many ways, things have changed for Dallas, too. The addition of Chris Tanev made an already strong defensive unit even stronger. The top pairing of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen is must-watch hockey featuring two of the most mobile, puck-friendly defensemen in the league. Perhaps the biggest change for Dallas is in goal and they didn’t have to adjust personnel to get it. Looking at goals saved above expected among goalies with at least 500 minutes of performance at even-strength this season, Jake Oettinger ranks 38^th. That doesn’t sound particularly great, but when you hone in on the last few weeks of the regular season, he’s starting to look like a real problem for the opposing team in goal. Assuming he’d have maintained a .913 save percentage for the duration of the year, he’d be significantly higher in those standings. Whether or not that run can continue will be a huge part of this series.

This series has a big feeling for the Stars. They made an aggressive swing at the deadline to bring in a defensive stalwart on the blueline. They are a top five team in goal scoring, zone entries, and finishing. If they can clear the hurdle of a bitter playoff rival laden with playoff experience in the first round, you must feel like that could be the necessary win to propel them to another Stanley Cup Final. From the Vegas perspective, the pieces are once again aligning at the right time and two capable goaltenders sit ready to play in any circumstance. I expect this series to be a long, arduous affair rife with unpleasantries from the onset. It isn’t just the return of Stone and Carrier for Vegas, they also went out at the deadline and bulked up with the likes of Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl.

KEY MATCHUPS

Jack Eichel vs. Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley

These defensemen have an ability to mute the Golden Knights top offensive talents. Eichel’s line is talented and can score lightning fast, but they only control 52% of the expected goals at even-strength. For a frame of reference, Heiskanen and Harley are controlling 61% of the expected goals at even-strength. Their ability to jump into the play or take over a breakout and gain the zone themselves tests the best centers in the league to be up to the task of chasing them down and marking them. Eichel’s best bet to neutralizing these threats is to force them to play defense as much as possible. The battle between the Stars top pairing and whoever they’re on the ice against for Vegas will be must-watch television.

Peter DeBoer vs. Bruce Cassidy

This is a situation where I’m really looking forward to the coaching match-up. Dallas has a strong setup in both their offensive zone approach and their power-play structure that create fits for opposing teams. Add in the fact that DeBoer has a good familiarity with much of the Vegas cast as he was coach there through 2022. I wonder if we see Vegas attempt to sit back and clog up the middle at all to slow down the Dallas breakout. The Stars are usually bolstered by one of their puck-moving defensemen assisting in the effort of gaining the zone. Given that Vegas was 22^nd in zone entry defense, there may be some manipulating on the part of Cassidy to give his team a little more support against a heavy and relentless Dallas attack. I also wonder what Cassidy will do to limit the damage done through Roope Hintz on the power-play as Vegas could be vulnerable to him walking the puck off of the wall for scoring chances.

Matt Duchene vs. Tomas Hertl

Each of these centers are key additions for their respective teams and I expect we’ll see a lot of them against each other in this series. Duchene has been a critical piece to the Stars improved depth. His 65-point campaign put him back on the map as a verifiable offensive threat. Meanwhile, Hertl scored four points in five games to cap off his regular season as he returned to the lineup for the Golden Knights. Both of these players expect to have a hand in this series, and both have been through extended playoff runs.

X-FACTOR

Dallas Stars: Wyatt Johnston was already a problem for opponents on the Stars third line. Add Logan Stankoven to the mix and you have a third line that controls over 63% of the expected goals at even-strength. They can do that against other teams’ top lines or third lines. They have no preference in their dominance. This line will pose a significant problem for Vegas in even-strength situations. I will be particularly interested to see which direction Bruce Cassidy goes with regard to defending this unit.

Vegas Golden Knights: The potential for Mark Stone to appear in this series is a significant development regardless of how long he’s been out. Stone provides a significant benefit both offensively and defensively. In last year’s meeting between these teams, he was a force to be reckoned with and created massive problems for the Stars in all three zones. Although this Stars team is deeper and seemingly more capable of dealing with that addition, it creates a trickle-down effect through the lineup that makes Vegas a significantly more difficult team to deal with.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

I fully expect Roope Hintz and his speed to present problems for the Golden Knights at even-strength and on the power-play. I think Hintz ends up with a lot of good looks in this series and I have to lean on his power-play presence again here as I think he poses a threat to the Golden Knights penalty kill from the half wall. From a depth perspective, I have to hearken back to Johnston/Stankoven. The Stars third line has been a difficult thing to handle, and I expect a lot of depth scoring to be of major impact in this series. Johnston especially looks to build off of his special sophomore season with an encore in the playoffs.

Jonathan Marchessault scored a lot of points this year. With Vegas getting healthy, I think he’s bound to score a lot more. This shifty winger is going to give the Dallas defense fits with his ability to quickly separate and find open space. I also want to give a nod to Tomas Hertl here. Lost in some of the other returns is him slowly finding his legs. He knows how to perform in the post-season and I expect he’ll have some extra pep in his step for this series, especially in those tougher areas of the ice. Given the situation with Stone’s injury and the uncertainty about his return, I’d keep a close eye on him as well. A staunch performer against Dallas historically, Stone is worth a flier even if he misses the first game.

PREDICTION

I like Dallas in a seven-game war here. I think they exercise some demons and clear a huge hurdle early on that battle-tests them for the rest of the post-season. Jake Oettinger has stabilized in goal, and that Dallas blueline is rich with threats that will keep the Golden Knights forwards busy with defensive responsibilities. Add in a little special teams advantage for Dallas and I like them to clear this round, albeit in an extremely close fashion.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Looking at teams with something to play for as season comes to close

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:30:02 +0000

Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Barring any postponements, the final day of the 2023-24 regular season with be Thursday. There are just 26 total games remaining before the playoffs get underway, so naturally there aren’t many teams to highlight for the final week. With that in mind, instead of picking out the teams with the most favorable schedules, I’m going to focus on the teams who have something left to play for this week. So, let’s dive into what the final days of the campaign will look like.

Please note that this week’s article is heavily skewed toward the Eastern Conference because there are still two playoff spots open while there isn’t much left to be decided in the West.

New York Islanders – MON VS NJD, WED VS PIT

The Islanders haven’t punched their playoff ticket, but they’re very likely to advance to the postseason. They have a 30-27-16 record, which is good for third in the Metropolitan Division.

They’ll play in New Jersey on Monday and host the Penguins on Wednesday. The Islanders can guarantee their playoff spot by picking up two points over those two contests. However, New York has a three-point advantage over the next closest non-playoff adversary, so there are scenarios where the Islanders can make the playoffs even if they go 0-2-0.

The Islanders’ task will be made more difficult if Noah Dobson remains out of the lineup. The defenseman has 10 goals and 70 points in 79 outings, but he missed Saturday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers due to an upper-body injury. Robert Bortuzzo dressed Saturday as a result of Dobson’s absence, but he’s not a replacement for the star blueliner -- Bortuzzo has no points through 25 appearances between St. Louis and the Islanders this season.

On the bright side for the Islanders, Brock Nelson is ending the campaign on a positive note. He scored twice Saturday to extend his point streak to three games. That gives the 32-year-old forward 32 markers and 65 points across 80 outings in 2023-24. He’ll almost certainly finish behind his 2022-23 mark of 75 points, but this is still the second-best campaign of his career in terms of total points.

If goal, Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin will likely split the final two contests. Assuming the Islanders make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts in Game 1. It’ll probably be Sorokin, but Varlamov has earned consideration thanks to his 2.66 GAA and .916 save percentage in 27 games, which tops Sorokin’s 2.99 GAA and .909 save percentage. The Islanders have also used Varlamov quite a bit recently, deploying him in seven of their past 11 games.

Washington Capitals – MON VS BOS, TUE @ PHI (BTB)

The Capitals made things tough for themselves by going 0-4-2 from March 28-April 7, but Washington might still be able to salvage the situation after winning its last three contests. The Capitals have 87 points (38-31-11), which puts them in the second wild-card seed. Detroit and Philadelphia are tied with Washington in points, but the Capitals have the edge in the tiebreaker over the Red Wings and a game in hand compared to Philadelphia. Additionally, Pittsburgh is one point shy of those three squads. All that is to say, Washington’s hold on its playoff spot is by the narrowest of margins.

The Capitals will host the Bruins on Monday and play in Philadelphia on Tuesday to conclude the season. Washington will make the playoffs if it wins both games. If the Capitals lose against the Bruins, then Tuesday’s season finale becomes a must-win and even then, it’s possible for the Capitals to miss the playoffs in the scenario where they lose Monday but beat the Flyers.

Alexander Ovechkin has been a major driver of the Capitals’ playoff push, scoring 22 goals and 35 points over his past 34 outings. However, he has slowed a little recently, providing a goal and an assist across Washington’s past four appearances, so his hot run might be over. The 38-year-old star has had a season of extreme highs and lows, but he’s done well overall, contributing 30 goals and 64 points in 77 outings.

Interestingly, it was Sonny Milano who served as Washington’s hero Saturday, providing two goals en route to a 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay. He has just 15 markers and 23 points in 47 appearances this season, but the 27-year-old also had a hat trick versus Carolina on March 22 and a four-game goal-scoring streak from March 1-9, so he can on occasion be a major factor and perhaps that will hold true during Washington’s final stretch. Still, his limited playing time puts a damper on his potential. Milano logged just 10:08 of ice time Saturday and has averaged 12:34 this season.

A safer bet for production over Washington’s last two games would be offensive defenseman John Carlson. This has been a strong season for him with nine goals and 51 points across 80 contests, and looked solid recently, supplying four goals and 13 points over his past 15 appearances.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS MTL, TUE @ MTL

The Red Wings suffered critical losses to Washington and Pittsburgh, but Detroit still has an opportunity to make the playoffs after earning a 5-4 overtime victory over Toronto on Saturday. Detroit is at 87 points (39-32-9), which puts the Red Wings in a tie with Washington for the second wild-card spot, though the Capitals control the tiebreaker, so Detroit would need to finish one point ahead of them to make the postseason. The Red Wings are narrowly ahead of Philadelphia, which has 87 points but has played in one more game than Detroit, and the Penguins, who have 86 points in 80 contests (37-31-12).

The Red Wings will finish the campaign with a home-and-away back-to-back against Montreal on Monday and Tuesday. The upside is the Canadiens are wrapping up a difficult season in which they’ve gone 30-36-14, so Detroit has a good chance of winning both contests. The downside is the Red Wings’ fate itself isn’t entirely in their hands -- Detroit can still miss the playoffs even if it wins both contests. Additionally, because Washington and Philadelphia will play each other and both teams would control the tiebreaker over Detroit, the Red Wings need to claim at least three out of four points over their final two games to have a mathematical chance of reaching the postseason.

Lucas Raymond is doing everything in his power to thrust the Red Wings into the postseason. The 22-year-old has contributed four goals and eight points over his active four-game scoring streak. His linemate Dylan Larkin has been right there with him, providing five goals and 10 points over his last seven outings. Look for that duo to continue to shine when Detroit faces Montreal.

Detroit’s bigger question is in goal. James Reimer started Saturday for the first time since March 28. The Red Wings got the win, but it was a mixed bag for the netminder, who stopped 32 of 36 shots. Meanwhile, Alex Lyon allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Penguins on Thursday and has been inconsistent recently while posting a 2-2-2 record, 2.83 GAA and .915 save percentage over his last six outings.

Ville Husso (lower body) suffered a setback while on an AHL conditioning stint, so he probably won’t be an option for the remainder of the campaign. That leaves Reimer and Lyon to split the final two starts. On the plus side, Montreal ranks 27th offensively with 2.80 goals per game, so the back-to-back set will be a favorable series for the Red Wings goaltenders.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE VS WAS

The Flyers were primed to make the playoffs before their 0-5-2 run from March 24-April 9. Philadelphia has rebounded by winning its last two games, though, leaving them with a 38-32-11 record. Philadelphia’s 87 points are tied with Washington and Detroit for the second wild-card seed, but the Flyers have played one more contest than either of them. The Flyers have also played one more game than Pittsburgh, which is trailing the main group by a point with a 37-31-12 record.

The Flyers’ final tilt is against Washington on Tuesday. They need to win against the Capitals to have a chance to make the playoffs, but even with a victory in that contest, Philadelphia will still miss the postseason if Detroit gets at least three points over its final two games or Pittsburgh wins its last two contests. Additionally, if Washington wins against Boston on Monday and then pushes the Flyers to overtime, then the Capitals would still finish ahead in the standings even if Philadelphia wins the outing.

Samuel Ersson is perhaps the biggest X-Factor going into Philadelphia’s final contest. He had a terrible stretch from March 14-April 9, posting a 2-5-2 record, 4.51 GAA and .829 save percentage in 10 outings, but he’s rebounded by stopping 44 of 45 shots over the Flyers’ last two outings. The Capitals aren’t a great team offensively, ranking 28th with 2.65 goals per game, so it’s plausible that Ersson will be able to extend his hot streak.

The Flyers will also be looking for Travis Konecny to continue his recent success. The 27-year-old has two goals and an assist over his past two outings and has set career highs this season with 33 goals and 68 points across 75 appearances. Noah Cates has done well too, collecting three goals and five points over his last six contests. He still has just 18 points in 58 appearances, which is down from 38 points in 2022-23, but at least the 25-year-old seems to be dialed in when it matters most.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS NSH, WED @ NYI

The Penguins seemed destined to miss the playoffs when they dealt Jake Guentzel to Carolina on March 7, but Pittsburgh forced itself back into the postseason conversation with a 7-0-2 stretch from March 26-April 11. However, the Penguins suffered a setback Saturday with a 6-4 loss to the Bruins.

Pittsburgh is now 37-31-12, putting the Penguins one point behind Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia in the battle for the second wild-card position. The Penguins will host Nashville on Monday and finish the campaign with a road contest against the Islanders on Wednesday. With Philadelphia and Washington set to play Tuesday, the Penguins need at least three of four points over their final two contests to have a mathematical shot, and even then, they’d need help from the tiebreaker system. Realistically, Pittsburgh will likely need to win both of its last two games to get into the postseason.

Sidney Crosby is sure to do his best to push the Penguins the rest of the way. He’s been a huge factor in their surge, supplying eight goals and 21 points over his past 11 outings. Crosby is up to 41 goals and 90 points in 80 appearances, which is extremely impressive production for a player who is 36 years old. Evgeni Malkin, who is 37, hasn’t been quite as effective this campaign with 25 goals and 64 points through 80 games, but he’s also gotten hot down the stretch with seven goals and 12 points over his past nine outings, so look for him to also show up on the scoresheet over the Penguins’ last two games.

The question is who will start in net. The Penguins have used Alex Nedeljkovic in each of their last 12 games, but he’s posted a 4.21 GAA and an .854 save percentage over his past four outings. To be fair, Tristan Jarry didn’t look good when he stepped into Saturday’s 6-4 loss to Boston in relief of Nedeljkovic -- Jarry stopped 12 of 14 shots in 26:27 of ice time -- but it might be that Nedeljkovic is running on fumes at this point, so maybe Jarry is still the better option, at least for Pittsburgh’s next contest Monday.

Dallas Stars – WED VS STL

The Stars have secured home-ice advantage through the Western Conference Championship, but Dallas can still go one further by claiming the Presidents’ Trophy. Dallas has 11 points (51-21-9), putting the Stars one point behind the Rangers (54-23-4). Carolina and Boston are tied at 109 points over 80 contests, so either team has an outside chance of winning the Presidents’ Trophy by winning each of its last two games.

Dallas’ final contest will be a home match versus St. Louis on Wednesday. Note that the Rangers control the tiebreaker over Dallas in the Presidents’ Trophy battle, so Dallas only has a chance to claim the title if it earns a victory over the Blues.

Even though the Stars still have something to play for, it wouldn’t be shocking if they rest some players Wednesday. For example, backup Scott Wedgewood might get the nod, both to keep him fresh in case he’s needed during the playoffs and to give Jake Oettinger a breather after starting in four straight and seven of Dallas’ past eight. The Blues rank 24th offensively with 2.86 goals per game, so Wednesday’s tilt would be a favorable matchup for Wedgewood.

Tyler Seguin, who didn’t play April 6 because of workload management related to his lower-body injury, might also get the game off. It wouldn’t be shocking if others were rested too, but I don’t think Ryan Suter and Joe Pavelski will be among those who get the game off. It might seem logical to give the two 39-years-olds a breather before the playoffs, but Suter and Pavelski have active iron man streaks of 452 and 313 games, respectively. Perhaps they’ll get less ice time than usual, though. We also might see Dallas give significant minutes in its finale to Logan Stankoven, who has six goals and 14 points in 23 contests, so don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old rookie has a productive game.

New York Rangers – MON @ OTT

With a 54-23-4 record, the Rangers will secure the Presidents’ Trophy with a victory against Ottawa on Monday. If New York loses the contest, the Rangers will still claim the title if Dallas loses its season finale, Boston is held to three of four points over its last two outings and Carolina is limited to two of four points over its final two games. The reason why the Bruins would need to do better than Carolina, even though both squads have 109 points through 80 contests, is because Boston is in a worse position when it comes to the tiebreaker.

Like Dallas, New York might rest players despite its final game having some relevance. Jonathan Quick will probably get the nod against the Senators. Quick has done well this campaign with an 18-6-2 record, but he has struggled recently, allowing 12 goals on 92 shots over his past three starts. Meanwhile, Ottawa has won eight of its last 12 contests, so while the Senators won’t be making the playoffs, they might still give Quick some trouble.

Outside of starting Quick, some of the Rangers’ top players, such as Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox might be scratched. Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin have participated in 165 and 163 consecutive games, respectively, so both of them will probably be in the lineup. Panarin is also two goals away from hitting 50 for the first time in his career, so keep an eye out for that. Chris Kreider will also likely be in the lineup. He needs just one more goal to reach 40 and this would be his first 82-game campaign if he dresses.

Arizona Coyotes – WED VS EDM

I’m throwing the Coyotes in here even though they long since have been mathematically eliminated. Arizona did have a 23-19-3 record through Jan. 22, but a horrific 0-12-2 run from Jan. 24-Feb. 29 effectively ended any hope the Coyotes had of making the playoffs. Still, there is a grim reason to note them: When Arizona hosts Edmonton on Wednesday, it could very well be the franchise’s last game before moving to Salt Lake City (the move isn’t official as of the time of writing but seems all but certain).

To some extent, the Coyotes’ probable move felt inevitable. Since the then Phoenix Coyotes declared bankruptcy in May 2009, it’s been one saga after another with the team and never since that date, have they looked truly secure in their home in Arizona. The fact that the Coyotes have been playing in a college arena since 2022 has made the situation look particularly untenable unless a long-term solution was secured. Even still, this is a sad ending for the dedicated fanbase in Arizona. It might not be the end -- even now there’s talk that the NHL might put an expansion team in Arizona after the Coyotes move if Alex Meruelo, who will sell the Coyotes, can secure a new arena deal -- but it is the end of a chapter.

With that in mind, Wednesday’s otherwise meaningless game has taken on a new meaning. Barring one more twist in this saga that prevents the anticipated move from happening, the contest will stand as a chance for the players to say goodbye to a fanbase that has been with them through all the turmoil. I would expect the Coyotes to play with a lot of heart under the circumstances. In particular, I’m interested to see how Clayton Keller, who was drafted by Arizona in 2016 and now serves as the squad’s top forward, does. He has been held off the scoresheet for his past three games, but Keller has still contributed 33 goals and 73 points in 76 outings overall, and I think the odds are high he will make his presence felt in the finale.

Another player to watch will be Josh Doan. He’s the son of Shane Doan, who was the captain of the franchise from 2003-17 and remains the franchise’s career leader in games (1,540), goals (402), assists (570) and points (972), among other categories. The younger Doan has given Coyotes fans a taste of the future recently, scoring four goals and eight points over nine games. Given his deep family connection to this franchise, this might be an especially emotional goodbye for him. It is also worth noting the grim symmetry here. Like Josh, Shane Doan saw his franchise move, in his case from Winnipeg to Phoenix, after appearing in just one season.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (February 26th to March 3rd) – Matthews at the center of Maple Leafs run – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 25 Feb 2024 15:00:03 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) chases the play during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs haven’t just won their last six games, they’ve outscored their competition an incredible 33-14 over that span. At the center of that run has been Auston Matthews, who’s provided 10 goals and 13 points over his past five contests. That gives him 52 goals and 76 points through 55 outings in 2023-24.

There was a time when Sam Reinhart was challenging Matthews for the goal-scoring lead, but Matthews’ edge in that battle has jumped to 13 goals. Not only did Matthews reach the 50-goal milestone before any other player hit 40, but there are still just 10 other skaters with at least 30 tallies this year.

Even after factoring in the Toronto game Matthews was unavailable for, the star forward is on pace for 76 markers. If he could actually do that, it would leave him in a four-way tie for fifth in the all-time single-season goal-scoring list. Along the way, he would also become the first player to reach the 70-goal mark since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny in 1992-93.

Of course, his pace has been skewed by his recent hot streak, but part of what makes Matthews impressive is how consistent he is. Dating back to Dec. 2, Matthews hasn’t had a goal drought last longer than two games (Dec. 30-Jan. 2, Jan. 13-14), and he’s provided at least one marker in 12 of his last 15 appearances.

It'll be exciting to see what he can do over the final weeks of the campaign and his pursuit of the 70-goal milestone adds an interesting wrinkle to a Hart Trophy conversation that’s been largely dominated by Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon, who are leading the Art Trophy race with 95 points (36 goals) and 93 points (34), respectively.

Arizona Coyotes - TUE @ MTL, THU @ TOR, FRI @ OTT (BTB), SUN @ WSH

The Coyotes are on the road next week and are set to play in Montreal on Tuesday, Toronto on Thursday, Ottawa on Friday and Washington on Sunday. Although an extended road trip is far from ideal, three of those four adversaries are well outside a playoff spot.

Arizona has lost 11 straight games, so it shouldn’t be surprising to hear that there aren’t many Coyotes players who have looked great recently. That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on Dylan Guenther. With the team focused on the future, the 20-year-old is serving on the first line and top power-play unit, leading to him averaging 18:17 of ice time, including 4:39 with the man advantage, over his past four contests. He hasn’t been good, but not great so far, providing six goals and 11 points across 19 outings this season, but given his high-end offensive upside, and the choice minutes he’s been receiving, Guenther has the potential to finish the campaign on a high note.

At the other end of the spectrum, veteran forward Jason Zucker has seen his role fade, to the point where he’s logged just 10:47 per game over his last three appearances, compared to his season average of 14:06. Although the Coyotes are likely to shop him ahead of the deadline, his $5.3 million cap hit might scare off contenders, and even if he does get moved, his new team likely wouldn’t use him as more than a third liner. Zucker has had periods this campaign where he’s performed well enough to be worth utilizing in fantasy, but only managers in particularly deep leagues should be using him at this time.

On the goaltending front, Connor Ingram has been dealing with an undisclosed injury, but based on his original 7-10 day timetable from Feb. 14, he should be about ready to return. The 26-year-old goaltender has been one of the bright spots for Arizona this campaign with a 17-13-2 record, 2.76 GAA and .912 save percentage across 35 outings. He’d be worth starting in fantasy on any night next week except for Thursday versus Toronto.

Dallas Stars - MON VS NYI, TUE @ COL (BTB), THU VS WPG, SAT VS SJS

The Stars will play in Colorado on Tuesday, but outside of that, they’ll be at home, hosting matches against the Islanders on Monday, the Jets on Thursday and the Sharks on Saturday. It’s one of the tougher schedules I’m highlighting, but Stars players will at least get plenty of opportunities to make an impact next week with four games ahead of them.

This hasn’t been a great campaign for Jake Oettinger, who has a 20-10-4 record, 2.98 GAA and .902 save percentage through 35 contests and he’s been particularly rough recently, allowing 10 goals on 65 shots (.846 save percentage) over his past three games. Scott Wedgewood, who has a 13-6-4 record, 2.97 GAA and .899 save percentage in 13 outings, isn’t an ideal alternative, but perhaps the backup goaltender will get some additional work next week so Oettinger can rest and regroup. If nothing else, Wedgewood should start either Monday or Tuesday. If he gets the Avalanche assignment, then it would be best to avoid him, but the Islanders are in a three-way tie for 21st offensively with 2.93 goals per game, so that would be a favorable adversary for the backup goaltender.

Goaltending hasn’t been Dallas’ only problem. The Stars have also been held to just two goals over their last two contests. Joe Pavelski has done alright in that span, providing a goal and an assist. He went through a slump from Jan. 23-Feb. 19 in which he was limited to four assists across 10 games, but the veteran forward seems to be heating up again. Even at the age of 39, he’s one of Dallas’ top performers with 20 goals and 48 points in 58 appearances.

Jamie Benn has also managed to stand out during the Stars’ recent struggles, supplying an assist in each of his last three games. He has just nine goals and 33 points through 58 outings this season, which is a major step down from his 78-point 2022-23 campaign. However, he’s been playing alongside Pavelski at even strength and serves on the top power-play unit, so Benn is in a position to be productive down the stretch.

Edmonton Oilers - MON VS LAK, WED VS STL, SAT @ SEA, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

Edmonton will host the Kings and the Blues on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. After that, the Oilers will travel to Seattle on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. LA and St. Louis are having decent, but not amazing campaigns while Seattle and Pittsburgh are behind in the battle for a wild-card spot.

The good times for Stuart Skinner appear to be behind him. He’s posted a 2-2-1 record, 4.20 GAA and .863 save percentage over his past five games, making this his worst stretch since his early season struggles. While Skinner still might shake this off and get hot again, this might create an opening for Jack Campbell, who has been paying his dues with AHL Bakersfield, to get a fresh opportunity. The veteran netminder has a .919 save percentage over his last 12 AHL appearances, so he’s settled down and would be worth keeping a close eye on if Edmonton calls him up.

While goaltending is something of a question mark for the Oilers, their offense is as strong as ever. Connor McDavid has been leading the charge as usual, providing an unreal 14 assists over his last five games alone. Meanwhile, Corey Perry seems to be fitting in with the Oilers, supplying three goals and four points over his past four contests. He hasn’t seen much power-play ice time, but he has shared the ice with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength.

Perry should be a good pickup for as long as he’s seeing time on either of the top two lines, but you’ll want to continue to monitor that situation. Edmonton might still add another skilled forward before the March 8 deadline, and if they do, then Perry might shift to serving primarily on the third unit, which would significantly hurt his fantasy value.

Florida Panthers - TUE VS BUF, THU VS MTL, SAT @ DET

The Panthers are one of the rare teams I’m covering with just three scheduled games, but they’re well-positioned to win all three contests. They’ll host the Sabres and the Canadiens on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before heading to Detroit for a match on Saturday. Of those adversaries, the Red Wings are the only ones still with playoff aspirations.

Florida has won 10 of its last 12 games, but the Panthers were dealt a potentially massive blow Thursday when Gustav Forsling and Matthew Tkachuk were forced to exit the match due to undisclosed injuries. At the time of writing, it’s not clear how significant those injuries are, but those are two key players for the Panthers.

If Tkachuk, who has 20 goals and 65 points through 57 games, is forced to miss time then William Lockwood will likely draw into the lineup for the first time since Jan. 19 and play regularly. The 25-year-old would serve primarily on the fourth line, so he wouldn’t at all be directly replacing Tkachuk, but Lockwood is a good source of hits when he is in the lineup, so he’s worthy of note in very specific fantasy circumstances.

We might also see Evan Rodrigues shift into a top-six role and move up to the first power-play unit if Tkachuk is unavailable. That would be a meaningful boost for Rodrigues, who has eight goals and 33 points through 57 appearances in 2023-24.

Forsling has eight goals and 27 points in 56 contests this season, but he’s only used sparingly with the man advantage, so his absence wouldn’t meaningfully impact the Panthers in that regard. In terms of even-strength minutes, though, we might see Oliver Ekman-Larsson asked to do significantly more. Josh Mahura would also likely start playing regularly after spending Florida’s past two contests as a healthy scratch.

Minnesota Wild - TUE VS CAR, THU @ NSH, SAT @ STL, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

Minnesota will host the Hurricanes on Tuesday, and then the Wild will have a two-game road trip with games in Nashville on Thursday and St. Louis on Saturday. They’ll conclude the week with a home contest versus the Sharks. Carolina is a tough opponent, but the Predators and the Blues are middle-of-the-road squads while San Jose is near the bottom of the pack.

With a 26-24-6 record, the Wild are running out of time to prove to management that they shouldn’t be sellers at the deadline. If they’re able to convince the front office of that, it will be thanks in large part to the efforts of their top line.

Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy are three of the hottest forwards in the league. Kaprizov is on a six-game scoring streak in which he’s provided five goals and 14 points. Over the same span, Eriksson Ek has supplied seven goals and 13 points while Boldy has contributed four goals and 11 points. Minnesota has gone from 17-20-5 on Jan. 13 to 26-24-6 at the time of writing, which is a significant climb, but the Wild are still on the outside looking in on the wild-card race. The Wild have little margin for error, which might serve to further motivate that star trio.

If Minnesota does start selling, though, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury will likely be among those moved. The 39-year-old is having a rough campaign with an 11-10-3 record, 2.96 GAA and .897 save percentage across 27 contests, but contenders will appreciate the added goaltending depth he can provide coupled with the wealth of playoff experience he brings to the table. It’s worth monitoring the situation because, with a strong team playing in front of him, Fleury might have some use down the stretch, although his playing time will likely be limited.

Should the Wild deal Fleury and write off this campaign, it will be interesting to see if they give Jesper Wallstedt another shot. He had a disastrous introduction to the NHL, allowing seven goals on 34 shots to Dallas on Jan. 10, but that’s obviously a small sample size and the 21-year-old is a highly regarded goaltending prospect, so it might be worth it to give him some starts down the stretch to provide him with more NHL experience. Alternatively, if the Wild believe his development is better served remaining with AHL Iowa, then veteran journeyman Zane McIntyre might finish the campaign with Minnesota. In that scenario, Filip Gustavsson would likely be leaned on massively down the stretch, as would McIntyre in Iowa.

New Jersey Devils - TUE @ SJS, FRI @ ARI, SUN @ LAK

The Devils will spend the week on the road, playing against the Sharks on Tuesday, the Coyotes on Friday and the Kings on Sunday. Although they’re playing in just three games, Anaheim and San Jose rank 30th and 31st, respectively, in the standings, which makes Devils players especially appealing next week.

Nico Daws has allowed 11 goals over his past two games, bringing him down to 6-8-0 with a 3.32 GAA and .895 save percentage through 14 appearances this season. Vitek Vanecek (lower body) might return soon, but he has a 17-9-3 record, 3.18 GAA and .890 save percentage in 32 contests, so he’s hardly an ideal alternative.

New Jersey will likely make a strong push to get a goaltender before the deadline. Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom seems like one possibility, provided he’s willing to waive his no-movement clause to facilitate a trade. If they get him or another netminder, then Daws will likely be sent to the minors while Vanecek, who is in the second season of his three-year, $10.2 million contract, would be relegated to the backup role.

At least the Devils have a strong forward corps. Tyler Toffoli isn’t the headliner of it, but he’s certainly a noteworthy component. The 31-year-old is on a four-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), which brings him up to 24 goals and 39 points in 55 contests this season. Jack Hughes is also dialled in with three goals and six points over his past six appearances.

Ottawa Senators - MON @ WSH, TUE @ NSH (BTB), FRI VS ARI, SAT @ PHI (BTB)

Ottawa will open the week with road contests versus the Capitals on Monday and the Predators on Tuesday. The Senators will then host the Coyotes on Friday before playing in Philadelphia on Saturday. None of those opponents is high-end, though Nashville still has playoff aspirations while Philadelphia is currently in a reasonably secure position in the battle for a postseason berth.

The Senators won’t make the playoffs, but that won’t be for lack of trying on the part of Claude Giroux. The 36-year-old forward is on a seven-game scoring streak in which he’s collected three goals and nine points. That gives him 18 goals and 51 points through 54 outings in 2023-24. Giroux’s three-year, $19.5 million contract runs through 2024-25, and he has a no-movement clause, so he’s unlikely to be traded before the deadline, but I can’t help but wonder if there’s any temptation there for him to reevaluate his plans. He’s never won a Cup, and Ottawa might not be able to provide him with a great shot at a serious playoff run before his contract is up.

Still, that’s a decision Giroux is more likely to make next season. Instead, Vladimir Tarasenko, who is playing through a one-year, $5 million deal, is far more likely to be moved in the coming weeks. It is worth noting that he has a full no-trade clause, so Tarasenko will have a lot of sway over where he goes. The 32-year-old winger has 15 goals and 37 points over 52 contests this season and would be a great middle-six forward for most contenders.

As Ottawa sells and looks toward the future, Ridly Greig might also start playing an expanded role. The 21-year-old has nine goals and 21 points in 44 outings while averaging 14:27 of ice time, including a modest 0:43 with the man advantage. In particular, that power-play time might expand down the stretch, which could aid Greig in finishing the campaign on a positive note.

Washington Capitals - MON VS OTT, TUE @ DET (BTB), FRI VS PHI, SUN VS ARI

The Capitals will spend most of the week at home, hosting Ottawa on Monday, Philadelphia on Friday and Arizona on Sunday. The Capitals will also have a brief excursion to Detroit for a contest Tuesday. The Senators and the Coyotes are set to be sellers at the deadline, making them the more vulnerable of the Capitals’ upcoming adversaries.

Alex Ovechkin was limited to just six goals and 20 points across his first 33 games in 2023-24, but that rough stretch is well behind him. First, he provided an impressive two goals and seven points through six games from Dec. 30-Jan. 11, then the 38-year-old truly caught fire starting on Jan. 24, contributing eight goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances.

Ovechkin’s resurgence isn’t shocking -- he always seems to find a way to bounce back when people start writing him off -- but Connor McMichael’s recent success is eyebrow-raising. The 23-year-old has supplied four tallies over his last two games and five goals in his past four appearances. That brings him up to 12 goals and 22 points through 53 contests this campaign. It helps that he’s been playing in a somewhat expanded role recently, averaging 16:11 of ice time over his past eight contests compared to 15:07 prior to that point. Keep an eye on him because while McMichael has been somewhat slow to establish himself in the NHL, he does have serious potential.

It's not all good news for Washington, though. T.J. Oshie sustained a lower-body injury Thursday. If he ends up missing time, then Sonny Milano might serve in an expanded role. Milano has five goals and 10 points in 26 contests, including two points over three games since returning from his own injury.