james van reimsdyk – McKeen's Hockey

Olympic Fantasy Draft Strategies

Carl Lemelin — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 12:02:42 +0000

All the hype surrounding the upcoming Olympic hockey tournament got me thinking: what if we started an Olympic fantasy pool?

What would be the best strategy? Would it be different than for a regular season pool? Some of you may have one planned already, so here are some tips that could help you edge out the competition in a sprint-type tournament.

1- Don't over-analyze the first round pick: Elite scorers are elite scorers. You probably won't win your pool in the first round, but you may well lose it by making a risky pick that doesn't pan out. Try to get out of the opening round with one of these musts: Canadians Sidney Crosby, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos (if healthy enough); Russians Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin; American Patrick Kane or Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson.

2- Study the tournament format: Of the three groups within which the preliminary round games will be played, Group B seems to be the one where offense will be easier to generate. It has two teams that feature no NHL-calibre goaltender, compared to only one such team in each of the other two groups. Therefore, Canadians and Finns should be favored for possible offensive explosions in the early stages of the tourney.

3- Take a chance on a star form a non-elite team: Past the first round of picks, don't hesitate to go for a hunch on a premier player from a middling nation: Finland, Czech Republic, Switzerland or Slovakia. Not many remember that the late Pavol Demitra and Marian Hossa of Slovakia finished 1 and 2 in scoring in Vancouver 2010. All-star type teams like Canada tend to spread out their scoring throughout the line-up while high scorers on mediocre teams get more quality offensive minutes. This may be the pick that makes the difference.

4- Established chemistry matters: There will be no time for getting acquainted in Sochi. Teammates with a built-in relationship from the NHL will have an advantage. Crosby-Chris Kunitz, Jonathan Toews-Patrick Sharp, Phil Kessel-James van Riemsdyk are all players that should be marked with an asterisk on your draft lists.

5- Keep updated on last minute roster decisions: If you are planning on running a competitive Olympic pool, the draft should be held near the eve of the tourney’s opening game (Feb. 12^th). This would give everyone enough time to get a clearer picture of planned PP units and starting goalies. This information will be crucial when compiling defensemen and goalies lists. If such info is unavailable, than make educated guesses. For example, if the draft was held today, I would rank Shea Weber high on my list based on the fact that he has the best right-handed shot to partner-up with Duncan Keith, Canada’s logical choice as quarterback on the PP.

6- Pick a winner and stick with’em: As is the case with playoff pools, you should trust your gut feeling on a team you believe has a chance to go all the way and rely heavily on its players in the heart of the draft. That is how you’ll pile up the points and distance your opponents... Assuming you’re right of course. If someone seems to have the same idea and beats you to every pick, than go to plan B and pick players from the team you think will be the finalist (or at least make the Bronze medal game).

Next week, we’ll take a closer look at some possible sleeper Olympic fantasy picks.

Shots Fired

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 26 Jul 2013 13:44:47 +0000

Thanks to Greg Sinclair for providing the data. Follow Greg here: @theninjagreg

It’s clear how much I value players getting hard to the net as part of goal scoring success. The heat map is a good visual of the importance along with the images in the Second City link with a more details.

Three Toronto Maple Leafs forwards illustrate three different scenarios.

David Clarkson has experienced scoring success due to getting to the net. James Van Riemsdyk continued goal scoring success relies on tight proximity to the net. Nikolai Kulemin is the exception here, moving away from the net.

Kulemin’s goal scoring decline since a career high 30-goal season in 2010-11, unsustainable shooting percentage & dwindling power play time aside, is precipitated on the lack of incursion to scoring areas. Shooting from the outside is not conducive to scoring unless there is heavy enough traffic for rebounds and scrambles. In effect, it’s a low-percentage play without bodies in front of the net.

Before getting into detail, I wanted to touch on the impact of the word ‘shot’. The immediate visualization is a launched projectile towards target. Shooting in hockey encompasses more than just launching projectiles. A player in front of the net with pucks hitting his backside and going in credits the goal scorer with a shot on goal, when technically, there wasn’t a shot taken. Coincidental contact awards the player with a shot on goal.

This is more evident in scoring success for Clarkson. The newest Leaf winger’s greatest contribution should be as a net presence rather than physical, gritty winger patrolling the walls. Clarkson’s goal scoring prowess wasn’t enhanced by great improvements in his shot or better release mechanics as much as the simplicity associated with getting to the net. Net presence enhanced some shot on goal totals in that effect, such as tip-ins, using strength and better positioning, rebounds and loose pucks turned into goals.

We can view this in the three previous season shot locations for former Devils winger, (images generated via Super Shot Search by @theninjagreg a great resource – blue dots are shots on goal, red dots goals).

The concept here is not just about getting shots from in close. Working backwards from in-close shots, players must consistently get to that difficult area in order for any event to occur, which also results in nothing plays if the puck never reaches there.

It’s a physical and positional sacrifice. The more players get to the net, the more likely impact shots can have with traffic in scrambles/rebounds. That’s the purpose of net presence.

Clarkson’s net presence has evolved into better scoring numbers and he parlayed that into a lucrative long term deal. JVR’s continued net presence should sustain goal scoring ability.

The immediate difference of scattered shot location from ‘10-11 to ‘11-12, with a closer shot concentration resulted in 30 goals. Not solely due to the 200+ shots (an increase from ’10-11), the higher concentration closer to the goal and middle of the heart of the scoring chance home plate factored in.

Shortened ’12-13 didn’t buck the trend as Clarkson continued to instigate the same elements that made him a successful scorer in 2011-12, converting 15 goals. The scatter in shooting patterns could be attributed to that point where players start believing there's a general improvement in skill as they taste scoring success – a plus from shooting quantity perspective, a detriment if the player feels that the skill level has increased enough to overwrite core elements of success. When players start to move away from the characteristics that make them successful the numbers have a tendency to follow.

Not all those little blue dots represent a release-backed shot.

James Van Riemsdyk is an example of varying consistency. ‘JVR’ is not the crash and bash type despite being solidly built.

In 2010-11 he scored eight playoff goals, averaging around 24 feet, four feet outside of the face off dot outlined by the blue rectangle in the image below. The scoring chance home plate area is outlined on the right.

James Van Riemsdyk’s shot charts from the past three seasons show a distinct pattern of net presence in ‘10-11 and ’12-13.

The scattered approach in ‘11-12 was indicative of the struggles scoring goals, shooting from a slightly farther distance.

The shot clustering from 2010-11 returned in ’12-13.

In ‘12-13 JVR scored in bunches early, amassing 14 goals in the first 25 games on 84 shots on goal with an average distance of about 25.9 feet. In the remaining 19 games, he scored four goals on 57 shots on goal, averaging about 28.21 feet.

An interesting side note on his first 25 games. Ten games featured an average distance greater than the game average (35.98 feet) scoring six goals on 33 shots (18% sh%). In 15 games, he was shooting closer than the overall average at 19.17 feet – or slightly closer than the face off dot. He scored eight goals on 51 shots (15.6%). These results are a counter to the concept here until we progress through the rest of the season.

In the final 19 games, the average shooting distance was greater than the overall average in 10 games (36.88 feet) on 26 shots without scoring once. In the remaining nine games, firing 31 shots at an average distance of 18.58 feet, he scored four goals.

Size may not matter, but distance does.

Nik Kulemin is where this pattern changes. The 27-year old Russian has reached his zenith offensively. The disturbing part is the questions that lead out of here. Is he starting the career down slope, before reaching 30?

Aside from the increase in shots on goal from the previous season, there’s a higher concentration of shots in ’10-11 closer to the net/home plate area.

In ’11-12, the shooting patterns are speckled. Aside from a small cluster of shots closer to the goal on the left the pattern is reminiscent of a player firing from the perimeter with occasional forays into scoring areas.

In conjunction with this image from ’12-13 was lining up with Mikhail Grabovski – and we all know what happened there – and Jay McClement. This is a soft confirmation of a sputtering offensive game with the average shooting distance moving away from the goal.

This could be a usage issue.

In ’12-13 Kulemin was almost always the high forward in the zone, laying claim along the top of the faceoff circle. This actually stems from the Ron Wilson days.

In the first 18 games in ’11-12, he scored 2-5-7, and fired 28 shots on goal, the average distance of 21.5 feet. Remove two games where the average distance was higher than the season average and the it drops to 17 feet. He was firing three feet below the faceoff dot.

Then something happened. The rest of the way, he averaged 35.35 feet, a full 7 feet farther than the ’10-11 average of 27.92 feet.

That’s too drastic a change to suggest inherent fault of the player and only leaves usage. Wilson transformed his role to the high forward in the zone and Randy Carlyle just ran with that.

As the high forward, he’s often in position of defensive support leading to a somewhat misleading belief in an extraordinary defensive ability. The visual of solid defensive positioning is built out of role and responsibility rather than strictly instinct.

The worry here is just future expectation and role as he enters a contract year. Does he accept this role or does he start to drift closer looking to enhance his overall numbers? I feel he’s less proactive in this role and doesn’t consistently engage opponents in the offensive and neutral zone. The result becomes a reactive player forced focusing effort in recovery rather than to advance the play.

At 27 years old, a defensive positionally sound forward selectively foraging into scoring areas limits contributions, and in the end, perhaps overall value. That might be the underlying tone heading into the final year before unrestricted free agency.

GRAPHS

The next three images outline average distance in shots in three distinct situations by season. The first image outlines the average shooting distances per season in all situations where players fired a shot on goal whether a goal was scored or not.

In games where players took at least one shot but did not score a goal, the average distance is greater almost across the board.

In games where players scored goal(s).

This is an outline of the past three seasons, with games played and trend lines.

The end result is a 2012-13 average distance delineated to simulate distances in relation to the rink.

CONCLUSION

Clarkson and Van Riemsdyk have reached a comfortable medium as goal scorers, Clarkson less so on natural skill and talent, but more rigor.

For continued success, David Clarkson and James Van Riemsdyk have to continue getting to the net.

Kulemin has slipped into the perimeter as the high forward in the zone, selectively picking his spots to get closer to the goal. Entering a contract year, there's the push of playing within the system, fighting the pull to excel personally for a chance at a more lucrative contract.

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Under the Radar Fantasy All Stars

James Mirtle — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 16:12:33 +0000

Comeback players, rebound candidates, up-and-coming rookies and sophomores - these are the sorts of fantasy all-stars you want to be taking in your pools. And it just so happens we've assembled an entire roster of them.

The basis for making the "under the radar" fantasy all-star team is that, quite simply, these players will likely fall further than they should in your draft because they are either (a) unproven, (b) playing for poor teams or (c) coming off bad seasons. But those kinds of gambles are exactly what can win your pool (assuming your competitors aren't also holding this list, of course).

FORWARDS

Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado

Big Swede simply got better and better as his rookie season wore on, emerging as a dominant forward at 18 years old late in the year and showing every indication he’ll be a perennial star. There’s always the danger of a sophomore slump but with that comes the upside he continues his great second half and hits 65 points or more.

Mikko Koivu, Minnesota

Still one of the more underrated two-way players in the entire league, Koivu is a 75-point talent stuck in an organization that has always struggled to produce a lot of goals. The additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter should help immensely there, shining the spotlight on the man in the middle.

Cody Hodgson, Buffalo

Shipped to the Sabres after not getting the playing time he craved in Vancouver, Hodgson’s debut with his new team wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive. It was, however, good enough that they shipped out Derek Roy to create a hole in the middle, and Hodgson has the talent to put up big numbers with quality wingers.

Eric Staal, Carolina

Granted an odd candidate for an under the radar list, but consider the following: Here’s a player who has had seven consecutive 70-point seasons and was absolutely dominant in the second half last year after having some brutal luck in the early going. Staal will be rejuvenated with brother Jordan in the fold and could get even more offensive help as GM Jim Rutherford continues to add. Bet on a point a game and hope for more - because he’s done it before.

Tomas Plekanec, Montreal

Last season was a disaster for pretty much everyone in Montreal, but the good news there is that there’ll be plenty of rebound candidates on the roster. Plekanec’s going to continue to get big minutes and last year’s 52 points should be the low water mark.

Antoine Vermette, Phoenix

Languished in Columbus (along with many others) but looked reborn upon jumping to the Coyotes and will continue to be a favourite of coach Dave Tippett. Vermette could easily slip to the later rounds but is a safe bet for 45 points and has hit 65 in the past. It’s not like he’ll have much competition for playing time, either.

Mike Ribeiro, Washington

Not really a fan favourite around the league given some of his high profile flops, Ribeiro nonetheless has averaged more than 65 points a season the last four years. The Capitals will also not be nearly as defensive as they were under Dale Hunter, meaning Ribeiro will be freelancing out there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green at times.

James Van Riemsdyk, Toronto

Let’s try this again. The man known as 'JVR' is the only player to make this list both last year and this one, but given the injuries, it’s worth giving him a mulligan. Toronto wasn’t very good last season, but they did score plenty of goals and won’t lose a single piece from that cast up front. Van Riemsdyk will also get plenty of opportunities to prove he can centre the top line, and any time with Phil Kessel is 'pucks in net' time.

Kyle Turris, Ottawa

He may not ever be a huge scorer, but he is also in little danger of losing his second line spot and will benefit from playing a full season with the Sens. Turris’s totals of a year ago prorate to 43 points so that’s a good starting point for where he’ll land in a full season. And you always hope for more.

Derek Stepan, NY Rangers

There is a reason Glen Sather considered him an untouchable in summer trade talks: There’s great potential in Stepan, even if he remains far from a household name. Right now, you’re guaranteed at least 45 or 50 points, but you never know when he’ll break out and hit 60 or higher. Hopefully it’s after you’ve picked him.

Mikael Granlund, Minnesota

The first of two wild cards. Granlund is a prospect first and foremost, but on a Wild team hoping to make a huge splash and score far more goals, he could get a first line role. Is he ready for that? Impossible to say for sure, but one of the reasons Zach Parise and Ryan Suter signed on with Minnesota was their prospect depth and Granlund is at the top of that list. Could surprise.

Marcus Foligno, Buffalo

Made a phenomenal jump from junior in having an excellent AHL season and then netted 13 points in 14 NHL games. The Sabres forward lines are crowded and he’s probably stuck in the bottom six, but the team’s brass loves him and will give him plenty of opportunities to succeed. Anywhere from 25 to 55 points is possible so bid accordingly.

Ales Hemsky, Edmonton

A forgotten man given all of the Oilers blossoming young talent, Hemsky could surprise everyone with a big bounce back year if he can just stay healthy. That, of course, is a big if, but he was close to a point a game guy the previous few seasons and should come extra cheap given he had only 36 points while playing through injury. Still not that old, either.

DEFENSEMEN

Alex Goligoski, Dallas

Took a step back last season to just 30 points from 46 the year before but should be the beneficiary of the added firepower Stars GM Joe Nieuwendyk added in Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney. Sure, this an old crew, but that’s a good power play crew and Goligoski can get 30-plus points there alone.

Dmitry Kulikov, Florida

No more Jason Garrison with the Panthers should mean a bigger role for young blueliner who everyone continues to wait for a breakout from. The only question is will it come now or will Filip Kuba take a lot of those minutes?

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phoenix

Unquestionably a future star, he has the misfortune for playing for the super stingy Coyotes, which may hurt his offensive production for the next few years. Still, if you want to grab the next horse on the blueline in a keeper league, here’s a prime opportunity.

Nikita Nikitin, Columbus

Quietly had a terrific breakout season last year on a terrible team and will be entrusted with top four minutes from the get-go this time around. They’re going to load him up with tough minutes, so don’t expect a good plus-minus figure, but Nikitin is one of the better defencemen in the league that no one has heard about.

Jamie McBain, Carolina

Took a small step back as the ‘Canes struggled mightily out of the gate but has plenty of potential and at 24 will continue to take on more and more of a role. Carolina’s offence should improve with the addition of Jordan Staal alone and at some point McBain will hit that 40-point mark and get on poolies’ radar.

Slava Voynov, Los Angeles

So long Jack Johnson. Voynov’s emergence last season was one of the underrated aspects of the Kings championship, as the young Russian went from the minors to playing a regular role in the top four and chipped in offensively, too. He’s a bit buried behind Drew Doughty, but his totals last season prorate to 30 points and that’s with limited power play time. Trending up.

Brendan Smith, Detroit

It’s always very difficult to project young defencemen who have limited NHL experience, but the Red Wings always seem to do an excellent job of working their rookies in slowly and Smith has been apprenticing for this role for ages. Big time potential here - and there’s a hole to fill with Nick Lidstrom’s retirement - but how soon will we see it?

GOALTENDERS

Braden Holtby, Washington

After a star turn in last year’s playoffs, the Capitals are putting their faith in the rookie this season and indications are he should be able to deliver. While Michal Neuvirth is capable of beating him out for a lot of starts, Holtby has the inside track and could end up starting a lot of games for one of the Eastern Conference’s stronger teams.

James Reimer, Toronto

How dangerously do you like to live? If the Leafs go in with Reimer and Ben Scrivens as their tandem, any number of possibilities could unfold, including Reimer regaining his 2010-11 form and excelling as a No. 1 over a prolonged stretch. He won’t get much help from his defence, so buyer beware. (And if you want to really go nuts, take a flier on Scrivens.)

A long-time member of the McKeen’s Hockey team, James Mirtle covers the NHL for The Globe and Mail and is based in Toronto.

You can read more of his work at globesports.com

Players To Watch – Preview 12-13

Iain Morrell — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 20:06:51 +0000

BREAKOUTs & HIDDEN gems

DREW DOUGHTY, D, LA
Fully capable of much more as he showed in commanding playoff performance

JAKUB VORACEK, RW, PHI
Czech winger likely moves to top line replacing his departed idol Jaromir Jagr

DAMIEN BRUNNER, RW, DET
Wings hope to have found a gem to replace Jiri Hudler in Swiss scoring star

JAMIE BENN, C, DAL
Should see more power play time with Mike Ribeiro gone, and hit career highs

JONATHAN BERNIER, G, LA
Could get chance to be a starter depending on how Kings grant trade request

ADAM LARSSON, D, NJ
Look for his bold offensive side to steadily emerge as his comfort level rises

TYLER SEGUIN, RW, BOS
Will again be a 'drool' pick for poolies given likelihood of a another big jump

ZACH BOGOSIAN, D, WPG
Look for a 10-goal 40-point year in fifth term as he continues to 'figure it out'

J VAN RIEMSDYK, LW, TOR
JVR gets a fresh start here to establish himself as a legitimate top-six scorer

JEFF SKINNER, LW, CAR
Could be beneficiary of Canes' bulked-up offense after painful sophomore dip

KRIS LETANG, D, PIT
Only an injury should sidetrack what should be a career-best breakout effort

T.J. OSHIE, RW, STL
Can only benefit as he matures along with a burgeoning surrounding cast

ALEX GOLIGOSKI, D, DAL
Talented quarterback will relish the added powerplay weapons at his disposal

VICTOR HEDMAN, D, TB
Starting to tap offensive creativity - and the extra blueline manpower will help

ANDERS NILSSON, G, NYI
Ongoing Isles' goaltending quagmire may find a Swedish solution at some point

CAM ATKINSON, RW, CBJ
Re-vitalized the Blue Jackets with his aggressive forecheck and clinical shooting

BRAYDEN SCHENN, LW, PHI
Will settle in as sophomore - with big brother Luke's arrival an added bonus

MIKKEL BOEDKER, LW, PHX
Turned into a great Dane with eye-opening speed and courage in playoffs

KYLE TURRIS, C, OTT
Advancing strength and conditioning - should translate into a breakout fifth year

TYLER ENNIS, C, BUF
Tiny dynamo looks to get back on track after being derailed by injury in `11-12

DMITRI KULIKOV, D, FLA
Made important defensive gains last season beside stable partner Mike Weaver

FRANS NIELSEN, C, NYI
Underrated Dane has continued to develop into a standout two-way player

DMITRI ORLOV, D, WSH
Assumes increased duties without Wideman, building on impressive NHL debut

COLIN WILSON, LW, NSH
Emerged late in the playoffs after beginning post-season as a healthy scratch

ROMAN CERVENKA, C, CGY
Flames are banking on Czech star to pick up Olli Jokinen's second-line spot

DEREK STEPAN, C, NYR
Emerging playmaker can only benefit from another marquee scorer to feed

KYLE PALMIERI, RW, ANA
Made vital defensive gains - and Ducks need next wave of scorers to step up

BEN BISHOP, G, OTT
Dominated the AHL in `11-12 and is game if starter Craig Anderson slips up