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After reaching the playoffs in their second season in 2022-2023, the Kraken came back to Earth in a big way last season, finishing with 81 points (34-35-13). The Kraken were a middling team at five-on-five, controlling 51.3% of shot attempts, which ranked 13th, and 50.7% of expected goals, which ranked 17th. That is not the mark of a surefire playoff team, but it’s also not the mark of an also-ran with no shot at the playoffs. The Kraken ranked 20th with 7.25 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, and 20th with 7.68 goals against per 60 minutes. Their goaltending gave them a .903 save percentage, which ranked ninth, so the problem really came down to Seattle’s inability to score. They scored on 9.1% of their shots, which ranked 29th and the only teams below them were Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Jose.
WHAT’S CHANGED? Dan Bylsma takes over behind the bench after Dave Hakstol was fired. Tomas Tatar returned to New Jersey as a free agent while the Kraken have moved on from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Justin Schultz. They also did not give a qualifying offer to winger Kailer Yamamoto. This helped set up two big free agent additions for the Kraken, as they signed defenceman Brandon Montour, fresh off a Stanley Cup win with Florida, and centre Chandler Stephenson, who had won the year before with Vegas. Can Montour and Stephenson add enough juice to this attack so that the Kraken have a fighting chance to get back to the postseason? Seattle had better hope so.
WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? For a team that has a lot of veteran players, the Kraken are not looking to keep rebuilding into perpetuity, so success looks like returning to the playoffs. If they could do some damage once they get there, even better. The most obvious player that needs to improve for the Kraken is centre Matty Beniers, who went from 57 points as a rookie to 37 points last season and that’s not nearly good enough, so one of the things that will look like success in Seattle is if, while improving their competitive play, they also get Beniers back on track to being a frontline player in the NHL.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? For a team going into its fourth season, it is hard to say that missing the playoffs would be a sign of going wrong, but with so many veteran players, the Kraken either need those veterans to produce to get them into the playoffs, or they have to figure out what comes next and if it means a player like Shane Wright gets buried on the fourth line while the veteran pros are just good enough to get the Kraken 80 points to miss the playoffs again, that would seem like things are going wrong.
TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: On a team with very few young players, oddly enough, a 20-year-old who is no longer Calder eligible is worthy of breakout status. Shane Wright surprisingly dropped to the fourth pick in the 2020 Draft, and has been on a rocky road since. Last season, he put up 47 points in 59 AHL games during the regular season before adding 13 points in 12 playoff games, impressive numbers for a 20-year-old first-year pro. Wright was excellent in eight games with the Kraken scoring four goals and adding an assist while driving play effectively. It would seem a waste to bury him on the fourth line, so if Wright gets into the top nine, he would have a chance provide decent production on a team that should be tripping over itself to add scoring to the lineup.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 72 | 25 | 38 | 63 | 0.77 |
Matty Beniers isn’t the first player to fall victim to the sophomore slump, although it was disappointing for someone Seattle expected to be an undisputed No. 1 center. Most of his struggles were related to offence, as he played well beyond his years in other aspects of the game. He is heavily relied upon in the Kraken’s transition game, starting most of their exits and having most of their zone entries go through him. It wasn’t too different from his rookie season, but the difference was the Kraken weren’t creating any offence with him on the ice. He could still create off the rush, but he struggled to get anything to the net on the follow-up opportunities. His shot rate declined from his rookie season, not taking command of the offence or getting himself open for teammates. There is nothing wrong with being a pass-first player, but Beniers playmaking skills weren’t high enough to make up for the lack of offence in other areas. Seattle still fed him top minutes, mostly because he’s one of their more reliable players in the defensive zone even at his age and the threat to score off the rush was still there. Players who show the talent he did as a puck-carrier usually see the point production follow them as they get older, so brighter days are ahead for the former Michigan Wolverine. A return to 25 goals and 60 points is possible as a fixture on the top line and power play.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 28 | 35 | 63 | 0.78 |
Jared McCann has been the Kraken’s go-to guy for offence since the team’s inception, leading the team in goals in all three years. The fact that he still did it last year while scoring 11 fewer than he did in 2022-23 says more about how the team around him played than McCann himself having a bad year. He’s still one of the best finishers in the league and does a little of everything for Seattle including kill penalties. He has a heavy shot that is borderline automatic when he gets the time and space to pick a corner. He functions better as a goal-scorer who can strike from distance rather than crashing the net for his offence, the area between the faceoff circles being his sweet spot. Effective both off the rush and the forecheck, although he’s more effective as the guy trailing the play rather than the one leading it. McCann had wonderful chemistry with Matty Beniers for this reason, although they struggled to repeat the magic they created in 2022 last year. He is very good at creating his own time and space to get shots through and can navigate his way through traffic well. He is usually involved in helping keep the cycle going in the offensive zone instead of lurking in the weeds for an open shot. He’s “instant offence” personified and arguably the Kraken’s MVP. Expect 30 – 35 goals and 65 – 70 points as he and Beniers bounce back this season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 65 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 0.52 |
Staying healthy is half the battle for Schwartz at this point in his career and last year was somewhat of a struggle, missing 20 games with an upper-body injury. He never got back to full speed upon returning to the lineup, scoring only five goals in his last 39 games and seeing his minutes cut from where they were last year. Schwartz is a good player even when he’s not getting on the scoresheet, but a lot of what makes him effective is his forechecking, always playing the body to jar pucks loose and being one of the few guys on Seattle who can get inside position in front of the net. Defensively he was dependable, but he couldn’t play with the same level of physicality in the offensive zone, and it made his game somewhat vanilla. His shot rate dipped from eight shots a game to only six per game and he was below average in most offensive categories relating to shot generation. Still a good passer and a smart player, Schwartz can be a solid player on any line in your middle-six, injuries are just forcing him into more of a tertiary role where his linemates have to carry more of the slack now. Health is just the biggest x-factor with him.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 60 | 15 | 19 | 34 | 0.57 |
It’s been a tale of two completely different seasons for Burakovsky in Seattle although they’re both frustrating for similar reasons. He was only available for 49 games both years and while he produced at a decent clip in his first year, last season he didn’t score his second goal until the 29th game of the season, which didn’t come until early March. Figured to be one of their top scorers when they signed him, the Kraken have gotten maybe 40% of what they expected out of the talented winger. He’s somewhat of a frustrating player in general because he’s a high-percentage shooter who doesn’t take a lot of shots, thus his career high in goals is only 22 and while great forward depth locked him out of the top six in Washington and Colorado, in Seattle he just hasn’t earned a spot consistently. In fairness, last season he was uncharacteristically snake-bit, shooting under 10% for the first time and he didn’t see much of a drop in his scoring chance or shot rate. His play-driving, however, was a bit of a mess, as Seattle gave up a lot when he was on the ice, and he couldn’t score to make up for it. Burakovsky is still a great player at creating quick-strike chances off the rush and setting guys up, so the potential for him to right the ship is there. He will likely get his chance to do so on a Kraken team that needs offence. The potential for 20 goals and 50 points is entirely possible at 29-years-old. He had scored at a pro-rated 65-point pace in the prior four seasons preceding last year’s dismal results.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 20 | 35 | 55 | 0.67 |
Known in Seattle as “The Maestro,” Bjorkstrand is the Kraken’s most reliable forward in terms of consistent impact. Even if he’s not on the scoresheet, he’s a positive in terms of play-driving and does a little of everything on the checking line with Yanni Gourde. Last year was his best season as a playmaker with his career best 39 assists. Those results were boosted from getting time on the top power play unit and doing an excellent job of helping set things up from the right wall. His play in the neutral and defensive zones are what gives him the most value, he’s an excellent puck-carrier and is very hard to check off the puck when he gets moving. He’s also a great support valve for the defence, once he gets the puck it’s usually going out of the zone and he’s very good at going the full length of the rink to either create offence or flip possession. Finishing is the one part of his game that hasn’t come around with the Kraken, despite hitting the 20-goal mark twice. He has the look and posture of a shooter, but acted as more of a playmaker last year, seeing his shots per game go down but still facilitating a lot of offence through entries and passing. He’s an ideal fit for the Kraken’s offensive zone game of always having player in motion with how good he is at cycling the puck below the goal line and he’s sneaky good at making the extra pass in front of the net to setup tap-in chances. Should remain one of the Kraken’s most trusted players even with the new coaching staff. He has had consistent results and should be able to repeat last year’s offensive numbers.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 75 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 0.48 |
Some years Gourde’s boxcar stats and high cap hit for a third line center is an afterthought when factoring in everything else he brings to the table. He’s an excellent forechecker and a tenacious player on the puck. He keeps possession in the offensive zone through physical play and through strong puck protection skills along the wall. He looks like the most skilled player on the team at times with how much he loves to skate with the puck and weave through checkers. He is the perfect guy to anchor a penalty kill unit and always a threat to score shorthanded. Negative parts of his game all relate to finishing, which has run hot-and-cold over his career with his most recent season being one of his worst in terms point production. Crashes the net well but doesn’t have the hands to capitalize on these chances, scoring most of his goals off deflections now. Still a good playmaker behind and around the net, partially due to his tenacity and ability to fight off checks to get the puck to the front. In the final year of his contract and in his mid-30’s now, it will be interesting to see how much his body holds up and if the Kraken depend on him for the same 17-18 minutes a game they usually do.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 17 | 33 | 50 | 0.64 |
The elder stateman on the Kraken now, Eberle was one of the team’s best players at even strength last year. In some way not much has changed from when he first arrived on the Kraken, but he isn’t expected to carry the team’s offence like he once was, playing as the third wheel alongside McCann and Beniers for most of the season. He’s not getting the same number of puck touches he used to, but he did an excellent job of giving his linemates easy passes and creating space for them to get through the neutral zone. Thriving at the five-to-ten-foot pass game to start give-and-gos, Eberle’s adapted his game well over his career to stay in the top six despite whatever his scoring line is. He still skates well and can drive the net with great hands to finish plays off when he gets in alone. One of the few Kraken forwards whose offensive production wasn’t heavily skewed towards rush play, which made him a valuable piece on that top line. The power play was the only sore spot with him, only scoring six goals and 12 points with the man advantage, which makes his overall statline misleading because he was one of their top scorers at even strength. Now 34, it’s just a matter of whether he can sustain this level of play over the next two years where he’s under contract.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 17 | 25 | 42 | 0.51 |
Drafted as a goal-scorer and molded into a checking forward by the Kraken, Tolvanen is a case of finding your lane to stay in the league. Seattle made it clear what their expectations were of him when they claimed him off waivers from Nashville and he’s rewarded them with back-to-back solid seasons. Last year being his first full year in the league with a defined role on the Yanni Gourde line. Tolvanen’s simplified his game to be an effective forechecker, taking the role as the first forward into the zone to retrieve pucks and disrupt exits. The first-round skill is still there even if he doesn’t get as many opportunities to show it. He gets open enough to be dangerous on that third line and finishes at a decent clip. Combine that with his solid defensive play and Tolvanen has carved a nice path for himself to stay in the NHL for a while. The question with a player like him is what happens if or when you try him higher in the lineup. Is there more skill there or what he is doing now the best you’ll see? Seattle has some time to find this out, as they opted to bridge him for two years at $3.475 million AAV rather than making him a long-term piece of the puzzle. There is upside and a potential break out, but draft for similar results.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 15 | 37 | 52 | 0.63 |
Seattle wanted more offence, and they spent a lot of long-term money to get it by signing Chandler Stephenson. It was a shocking contract for a player who has only hit the 20-goal mark once in his career and known mostly as Mark Stone’s sidekick in Vegas. He isn’t the first guy in a thin free agent poll to get a big payday, but the fit in Seattle is a little suspect. Stephenson is one of the fastest players in the NHL, but functions as the secondary piece on his line rather than someone who stirs the drink. He excels in the give-and-go game, shooting only when he has a lot of time and space open to pick a corner. It’s questionable if the Kraken have the pieces to set him up for success because they’re a team with a lot of similar secondary pieces and few players who can drive results. Stylistically he fits because of his speed and love of creating cycles high in the zone, which the Kraken love to do. It’s just a matter of whether or not he will have the same impact he did in Vegas when he doesn’t have the same level of talent around him. His success could depend on how Matt Beniers performs in the first line center hole in front of him. Be cautious in drafting and do not expect him to produce more than last year with better talent. 15 goals and twice as many assists might be a realistic result.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 13 | 47 | 60 | 0.77 |
The Kraken received the closest thing they’ll get to a franchise defenceman when they took Vince Dunn in the expansion draft. He drives a lot of what makes the team go, both through his vision, passing and controlling the play at the blue line. Seattle loves to create off the rush when they can slow the play down in the neutral zone and Dunn is excellent at making those frozen rope passes off regroups. He’s also their best defender at giving them a dynamic element on the blue line, always looking to pinch and contribute to the cycle instead of immediately looking for the big point shot. He also does this while playing 23-24 minutes a night on a Seattle top pair that gets some of the toughest matchups in the league. It’s not a coincidence that the Kraken’s season fell apart when a high hit against Calgary took him out of the lineup for the final 20 games. Seattle won only seven of the games he missed. It took Dunn a couple of years to get used to life as a top pair defenceman and Seattle didn’t have anyone who could slide into that role without a significant drop-off. Sometimes you never know if a player is going to sink or swim when they have to play higher in the lineup and Dunn is a case of patience paying off. He has two years of excellent results under his belt now. Expect more of the same.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 12 | 38 | 50 | 0.61 |
Set to make bank after rediscovering his game as a pure offensive defenceman in Florida, the Kraken decided to be the team to pay the bill for it. His skillset is needed there, as the Kraken like to involve their defence and didn’t have a lot of attack-minded players on their blue line to make it effective. Montour was the most boom-or-bust player they could have added to fill this void. He fits the riverboat gambler moniker better than most because retrieving pucks and making stretch passes out of his own zone isn’t his strength, but rather someone who can fly the zone when a lane is open and act as an extra forward on the attack. Expectations for him are a little tough because he has one monster 73-point season heavily influenced by power play production sandwiched in between two decently productive seasons that would put him in the middle of the pack for most defencemen. Montour needs a sturdy partner who can retrieve pucks and matched up behind a scoring line to get the most out of his offensive skillset. He can move and has fantastic scoring instincts for a defenceman, keeping the puck in the offensive zone as much as possible is the key to unlocking what Florida got out of him. It’s uncertain if the Kraken have the same setup. Do not overpay as he is 30 years old and profiles more at the 40-point level than 60 over his recent career.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 0.25 |
Affectionally known as “The Big Cat,” Larsson’s been a fixture in the Kraken lineup for awhile now, stapled next to Vince Dunn on their top pair. He is the less dangerous of the two offensively, as he will usually stay back while Dunn roams to be the safety valve. Larsson isn’t without skill, though. He skates well for a big man and will look to push the pace if given the opportunity. He activates from the blue line to create offence from closer range rather than go for the big slapshot form distance. His defensive play was more spotty than usual last year, as the Kraken gave up more chances with him on the ice. His own game was also a little more conservative than usual, focused mainly on avoiding turnovers and not making mistakes while deferring to Dunn for most of the exits and puck play. Was hurt the most by Dunn’s absence as some of his flaws were exposed without a puck-mover alongside him, especially with defending entries. This is normally one of Larsson’s stronger skills, but he struggled here. Opposing teams could attack his side more and the workload was overwhelming. When the two are healthy, they’re an underrated top pair with Larsson pitching in offensively a little more than he did last year.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 0.24 |
The towering defenceman might have had one of his worst seasons offensively, but he performed well in just about every other aspect of the game. His own offensive contributions also weren’t bad, they just didn’t result in points. He brings an unmatched combination of size and mobility, as most defencemen built like him aren’t nearly as good with the puck or can skate their way out of danger like he can. He held the fort down well on that second pair and made life easier for Will Borgen to transition into a top four role. Still not the best breakout passer, Oleksiak makes up for it with his skating and penchant for making the simple plays to help his teammates kickstart the breakout. His own story is a great case of patience with player development, stuck in a third pair role for most of his career and dominating those minutes until the Stars were ready to promote him into the top four. This was around the time the Kraken claimed him in the expansion draft and he’s been a regular part of their defence corps and penalty kill since then.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 34 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0.902 | 3.02 |
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 48 | 20 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0.911 | 2.54 |
Perhaps the brightest surprise to pop up in net last season was Seattle Kraken backup Joey Daccord's rise to prominence. After former Colorado star Philipp Grubauer made the shocking move to ink with Seattle (only to see his numbers take a nosedive), it seemed like the Kraken became collectors of goaltenders without a ton of high upside to their games. Daccord was no exception, putting up stellar numbers in college for Arizona State but boasting a playing style that looked unlikely to translate well to the NHL. Whatever work he put into his development post-grad, though, seems to have paid off in spades. The version of Joey Daccord Seattle iced last season looked like a whole new goaltender, boasting elevated instincts and faster, crisper movements within the blue paint.
Now, he'll get a chance to prove last season wasn't just an adrenaline-fueled fluke. The Kraken will return this season with both Grubauer and Daccord, but it's likely Daccord will kick off the season as the presumed number one. Barring a surprising coaching decision in the Pacific Northwest, it appears as if the starting gig is Daccord's to lose. The biggest test will be to prove just how much of his instinctual improvements can stick around over the long, grueling seasons; he's made it clear that he's willing to put in the work, but Seattle will need him to prove he's got staying power as well if they hope to push back into playoff contention.
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REVIEW: Unlike Vegas’ amazing run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season, Seattle had a miserable first NHL campaign, but any Kraken fans who were prepared for a long, painful road to competitiveness were pleasantly surprised when Seattle posted a 46-28-8 record in 2022-23. Seattle turnaround was fueled by the squad scoring 73 additional goals compared to the prior year, flipping them from being among the worst teams offensively to one of the best. Rather than be led by some new acquisition, their scoring renaissance was fueled by returning Kraken players Jared McCann, Matthew Beniers and Jaden Schwartz combining to score an extra 47 goals more than the trio mustered in 2021-22. At the same time, defenseman Vince Dunn shattered his previous career-high of 35 points by contributing 14 goals and 50 assists. Seattle’s goaltenders were still a problem, as evidenced by their combined .890 save percentage, but the Kraken ranked seventh in 5-on-5 expected goals against (163.59), which kept the team defensively above water despite that poor netminding. Not satisfied with merely making the playoffs, Seattle managed to earn its first playoff series win by besting Colorado in seven games before falling to Dallas in the second round.
What’s Changed? Forward Daniel Sprong, who had 21 goals last season, and goaltender Martin Jones left as free agents. Jones’ departure opens the door for Joey Daccord to compete with Philipp Grubauer for starts. Other than that, the team figures to be largely the same.
What would success look like? With the Kraken’s existing forward core, they should challenge for a playoff spot again, but what would take this team to the next level would be a resurgence from Grubauer. Although the goaltender has struggled over his first two campaigns with Seattle, he was once an amazing netminder, posting a .920 save percentage over his first 214 career NHL contests. He briefly regained his form when facing his former team, the Avalanche, in the first round and was a huge part of that series victory. Grubauer didn’t look as impressive against Dallas, but maybe there’s still hope for the 31-year-old.
What could go wrong? McCann is in danger of regressing after scoring a career high with 40 goals in 79 contests last season, particularly because his 19.0 shooting percentage was well above his 12.1% career average. It’s also possible that Seattle’s offensive prowess last year was something of a perfect storm, given that its top five scorers and six of its top seven were able to play at least 79 games. Sprong being limited to 66 contests was the only significant setback the Kraken suffered on the injury front last year. They might not be as fortunate two seasons in a row.
Top Breakout Candidate: Beniers, Seattle’s first ever pick and the second overall selection in the 2021 draft, broke out with 57 points last season. Will Shane Wright, taken fourth overall in 2022, follow in his footsteps this year? Wright could develop into a superb two-way forward in the vein of the now retired Patrice Bergeron. Although Wright was unable to stick with Seattle last year, he got some more seasoning in the OHL and AHL and seems poised to make a serious run at a middle-six spot during training camp.
Matty Beniers was drafted second overall in 2021 and was the first ever draft pick of the Seattle Kraken. After finishing up his 2021-22 season at the University of Michigan, Beniers would play 10 games with the Kraken where he scored three goals and six assists. That rolled into his rookie season in 2022-23 where he scored 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games, winning the Calder Trophy as the rookie of the year by a healthy margin. He has an excellent shot, finishing at a rate of 16.3% so far in his career. Plus, he can use both his big frame and stick skills to excel in tight spaces. Additionally, he is an exceptionally disciplined player, only taking one minor penalty last season, helping him finish fourth in the league in penalty differential. Heading into his sophomore season, Beniers will want to be the one to help the Kraken crack their powerplay woes and he’d love to improve at faceoffs. His 42.2% faceoff win percentage so far in his career is abysmal. If he can keep growing, the 20-year-old who already has a well-crafted game, could become one of the best two-way centers in the NHL.
The days of Jared McCann being a castaway are over. After being tossed around from Vancouver to Florida to Pittsburgh, McCann was used as a pawn to protect Toronto’s roster in the NHL Expansion Draft. In his first season in Seattle, McCann recorded a career-high 50 points with 27 goals and 23 assists. He went ahead and followed that up with 40 goals and 30 assists last season, both career-highs again. At 27 years old, McCann has found his spot as a first line scoring winger with an up-and-coming Kraken team. He finished fourth behind Pastrnak, McDavid, and Rantanen in even strength goals with 30. McCann was also one of the only bright spots on the Kraken powerplay, leading them with seven goals and 16 points in just over 200 minutes. While there are doubts that he can finish at such a high rate again, ending last season with a 19% shooting percentage, he has shown throughout his career that he can also help his teammates finish well too. Plus, if the Kraken ever figure out their powerplay woes, he will be the one to receive the greatest benefit as the Kraken’s go-to shooter on the man advantage.
After a career-high 57 points in 80 games in 2021-22, the Columbus Blue Jackets decided that Oliver Bjorkstrand was a luxury that they could no longer afford due to cap constraints and sent him to Seattle. Bjorkstrand finished his first season with the Kraken with his fourth 20-goal season. The six-foot right-handed winger is an excellent forechecker, wreaking havoc on opponents trying to make their way up the ice. On a deeper Kraken team, he is able to dial in to his specific skill set. Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff placed him largely alongside Yanni Gourde and waiver-wire pick-up Eeli Tolvanen. The trio of more tactical forwards are tasked with keeping the ice tilting in the Kraken’s favor. In their time together, the line had a 56% share of shot attempts and outscored opponents 24 to 16. Bjorkstrand also saw 189 minutes on the powerplay last season, splitting time between units. The Kraken powerplay has struggled in its two years of existence, and Bjorkstrand was a part of that last season. If Bjorkstrand wants a shot at another career year this season, he will need to be a part of a growth in the Kraken powerplay in 2023-24.
The 33-year-old winger played his part in a phenomenal offensive year for the Seattle Kraken, scoring 20 goals and adding 43 assists. Eberle offers a veteran presence alongside Matty Beniers and Jared McCann, in which the former won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, while the latter scored 40 goals for the first time in his career. Eberle has been given offensive deployment most of his career, and Dave Hakstol and the Seattle Kraken coaching staff has amplified that since arriving on the scene in the fall of 2021. He has seen 15% of his 5-on-5 shifts start in the offensive zone with the Kraken, which is 2% higher than his career average. He has also continued to see high usage on the powerplay as he continues to get more than two minutes of powerplay time per game. The only time he has fallen short of that number was in the 2017-18 season with the New York Islanders when he was only on the ice for 1.93 powerplay minutes per game that season. As long as Eberle continues to see the offensive usage he does now, he should continue to age with reasonable production.
As the Kraken’s pick in the NHL Expansion Draft, Yanni Gourde brought a sense of personality and culture to the Kraken locker room. Although he stands at just 5’ 9”, the Quebec-native made his way into the NHL as a scrappy forward. It was the way he made his way into a deep Tampa Bay Lightning lineup at 25 years old, and it’s the way he is continuing to be useful at 31 years old. Gourde battles hard in all three zones, especially on opponents trying to exit their zone. His level of detail is why he can take on tough matchups and tilt the ice in his team’s favor. The only Kraken forwards who started a lower percentage of their shifts at 5-on-5 in the offensive zone were Andre Burakovsky and Ryan Donato. Going along with his defensive usage, Gourde was also on the ice for 164 shorthanded minutes last season, behind only Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev. That was the most time that Gourde had spent penalty killing in a season in his career, as the Kraken substituted his powerplay time for penalty killing time. One should expect more of the same of that usage this season but watch out for a bounce-back in his goal scoring with his shooting percentage regressing (9.93% last season vs career 14.5%).
After a revival of his career in Colorado, notching 61 goals and 89 assists in 191 games, Burakovskly tested unrestricted free agency where he elected to sign with the Seattle Kraken. The Colorado Avalanche had their eye on Burakovsky for his transition skills and shot. After a pair of disappointing 25-point seasons with the Capitals, that may have been hard to spot at the time. With the Kraken, Burakovsky continued to build on the offensive success he was having in Colorado, scoring 39 points in 49 games. However, a lower body injury in February would cause him to miss the rest of the season. Burakovsky found his home alongside Alex Wennberg, a forward who is responsible defensively and can help with the starting phases of breakouts deep in the zone. When he was in the lineup, he also saw time on the top unit. While he can make poor decisions at times, his offensive versatility makes him a valuable asset. The Kraken are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he is one of the more skilled forwards on their roster. Given their counterattacking style, they could use his ability to create offense off of the rush.
After a promising start to his career, scoring 59 points in 80 games in 2016-17, Wennberg’s offense would fizzle out in the remainder of his time in Columbus and Florida. The 6’ 2” Swede has great size and playmaking abilities, but his lack of physicality and mentality to shoot the puck left prior coaches wanting more. Of the 371 forwards who played 500 or more minutes at 5-on-5 last season, only two forwards had a lower rate of individual shot attempts. Of course, that leads to a low rate of goal scoring and point production. He has scored 24 goals in his first 162 games with the Kraken, but there is always the risk something like 2018-19 happens again where he finishes with two goals in 75 games, shooting 3.1%. However, it’s clear that Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff love Wennberg. He was the top penalty killing option for them along with 186 minutes of powerplay time. Ultimately, the Kraken’s use of him as a dependable, defensively responsible forward will hurt his box score stats, but that is also important for helping other players on the team blossom.
A first round pick in 2017, the 5’ 10” Finnish forward struggled to make a mark with the Nashville Predators. In 135 games between the 2017-18 season and last season, Tolvanen accumulated only 25 goals and 26 points with the Predators. On December 11th, 2022, Nashville placed Tolvanen on waivers where he was picked up by the Kraken. Over the remainder of the season with the Kraken, Tolvanen would score 16 goals and 11 assists. Some credit must be given to the Seattle Kraken organization who were committed to his success. He would spend 87.5% of his 5-on-5 time with Yanni Gourde, and 70.0% with Oliver Bjorkstrand. Having the opportunity to play with talented players who are experienced alleviated some of the pressure that was resting on his shoulders. His linemates also opened up space for him that he was able to take full advantage of. For a 24-year-old winger, Tolvanen already has a well-rounded defensive game to go along with his above-average shot. But he wasn’t exactly the play-driver that he would’ve needed to be in Nashville in order to succeed there. Alongside play-drivers who need some help finishing, Tolvanen is the perfect complementary piece that we saw in the latter two-thirds of the 2022-23 season.
After missing most of the Seattle Kraken’s inaugural season, Jaden Schwartz returned with a much healthier year, getting on the ice for 71 games in 2022-23. Any worries that his hand injury that he suffered in January of 2022 would hold him back seem to be alleviated as Schwartz scored 21 goals on 167 shots on goal, a finishing rate of 12.6%. Furthermore, he’s never been much of a shoot-first forward. He only ranked 161st among regular forwards in the rate he attempted to shoot the puck at 5-on-5 last season, a large chunk of which were blocked. He’s known mostly for being dependable at most things, but not elite at any one thing. This can be reflected both in his lack of consistent linemates, as the coaching staff feels comfortable playing him with many different forwards, but also his quality of competition. Schwartz faced the third-hardest competition at 5-on-5 among Kraken forwards last season in terms of weighted-average time-on-ice of opponents. At 31 years old, it’s clear that Schwartz won’t blow you out of the water with his box score stats. He has only cleared 60 points once in his career. Despite playing on the number one 5-on-5 offense in the league last season and getting a hefty dose of powerplay time, he was not on track to add another 60-point season. He has instead reverted to being a dependable piece for the coaching staff in the middle six.
Vince Dunn had a breakout 2022-23 campaign scoring 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games for the Kraken. His 64-point total, which ranked tenth among defensemen last season, close to doubled his previous career-high of 35 which he set in 2018-19 and 2021-22. While he did play most of his 5-on-5 minutes alongside Adam Larsson in the inaugural season for the Kraken, he was close to glued to his hip last season, spending 88.3% of those minutes with Larsson. Dunn, a player who is excellent at breaking out of the zone and has a well-developed offensive toolset, has the habit of making big mistakes from time to time. A steady defensive partner like Larsson helps bring the most out of Dunn. It also helped that he had a slightly more skilled forward core to support last season as well. And with Mark Giordano out of the picture, the first powerplay unit was his all year, and no one is set to take that role away from him. He may seem some regression this coming season after shooting 9.3%, but his elevated production should be the new normal for him.
Perhaps best known for being the player the Edmonton Oilers exchanged Taylor Hall for, Adam Larsson is a 6’ 3” staple on the back end. Last season, playing with Vince Dunn and a deep forward core that helped push the Kraken’s even strength offense to the best in the league, Larsson was able to achieve a new career-high 33 points in 82 games. The Swede won’t win you over for his offensive play, but rather his dependability. He is talented defensively, allowing his teammates to take risks at times knowing that he will clean it up. He also hasn’t missed a game since November of 2019. Larsson led the Kraken in shorthanded time on ice last season at 227 minutes, or 59.2% of the Kraken’s time shorthanded. His usage and unwavering commitment to defense also helped propel him to ninth in blocked shots last season, and fourth over the last three seasons. Adam Larsson is the guy that does the dirty jobs that no one else wants to do, and he does it well. He will likely find his way into the top 100 in points among defensemen just by his usage and will log a substantial amount of shorthanded time while blocking shots.
The 6’ 7” defenseman requires special permission from the league for the length of his stick. Not only is that stick extraordinarily long, but it is also 120 flex. Whatever works for the 2011 first round pick as he scored nine goals on 76 shots on goal last season. The shooting percentage of 11.8% will be impossible for him to reproduce, but it speaks to the utter strangeness in his game. Oleksiak had also gotten hot before, scoring five goals on 33 shots in the 2016-17 season. But at times, Oleksiak gets cold, like his first season in Seattle where he only managed a single goal on 95 shots. His unpredictability is what makes him a fun player to follow. Last season, for the first time in his 11-season career, Oleksiak was a staple to the penalty kill. He was the left-handed defenseman that was deployed alongside Adam Larsson, a role that was previously unfilled. You may have assumed that a defenseman of his size would have played a major role on penalty kills before, but Oleksiak’s preferred play style is as unique as his numbers. He loves to jump up into plays, helping transition the puck like a forward, as opposed to sticking back and being sturdy. Perhaps that’s why he led the Kraken in defensive zone starts last season.
After a disappointing 2021-22 season where the Washington Capitals reduced his ice time from 19 minutes per game to 17 minutes per game, Justin Schultz made his way to the west coast where he played just a bit more time with the Seattle Kraken. The two-time Stanley Cup champion has aged out of his days of being a stud offensive defenseman to complement Kris Letang’s work. His 34 points with the Kraken last season was the highest point production he recorded in a season since scoring 51 points in the 2016-17 season with Pittsburgh. Not good enough to be a top-pairing offensive defenseman for most teams, Schultz finds himself in a bit of an odd spot, as most general managers would prefer to fill the bottom four spots with penalty killers or younger offensive defensemen. The Seattle Kraken were one of the few teams that had the perfect slot for him, and he found his way to a bounce back season alongside Jamie Oleksiak. While Vince Dunn is undoubtedly the top choice for the first powerplay unit, Schultz fills in nicely on the second unit. Luckily for Schultz, there isn’t much contention for that spot either. You can expect more of the same from Schultz in the final year of his contract.
The Seattle Kraken had one job for Philipp Grubauer last season – do better than the year before, and don’t crumble in the postseason. And while he didn’t make the kind of massive bounce-back that the team undoubtedly hoped for, he did complete his assignment; he dragged his save percentage up from the mid-.880’s to just shy of the .900 threshold, doubling his quality start percentage from the year before and creeping closer to the league average in goals saved above expected. He remained an underperformer from a pure monetary standpoint, especially given just how much money they’d handed him in free agency, but he climbed out of the basement enough to bring the rest of the team up with him.
Grubauer’s biggest problem now wasn’t that he looked like he was playing catch-up all year; unlike in his first season with the expansion franchise, he managed to hit crisper angles and corral more shots before allowing sloppy rebounds. While he really elevated his game in his good performances, though, Grubauer’s biggest issue became his consistency; he had a lot of elite games, he had an above-average number of absolute stinkers, and he put up almost zero games that fell in the in-between. There was no such thing for the German-born goaltender as a league-average performance; he gave games his everything or he nearly got chased from the net, and he continued to waffle between the two performances all the way to the last week of the regular season. That, in itself, is a reason for concern for Seattle; he proved he still has excellent games in the tank, but he didn’t prove he could deliver those with enough reliability to tab him as the number one and breathe a sigh of relief. He’ll need to take that final step forward this year if he wants to prove his contract was worth it for the Pacific Northwest club.
Projected starts: 55-60
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Jared McCann
Given a bigger role with an expansion team, the 26-year-old rose to the challenge and scored a career-high 27 goals and 50 points. Not only is McCann a play driving forward, but he has the shot to make the most of his scoring opportunities, scoring on 14.0% of his shots in the past two seasons after scoring on 8.8% of his shots during the five previous seasons. Some of that increase in shooting percentage is due to getting more time on the power play, where McCann has scored 15 of his 41 goals in the past two seasons. McCann has a strong defensive track record, so his emergence as a scorer gives him legitimate value as a two-way forward, one that is capable of playing center or wing. Another 50-point season, with 25 goals, should be in the cards for McCann this season.
Yanni Gourde
Coming to Seattle after winning a pair of Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay, Gourde had the third 20-goal season of his career and was the most dangerous playmaker on the roster. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and that passion brings out his best performance. The 30-year-old is a leader on the Kraken, not only because of his success in the league, but also because of the way that he plays. 20 goals and 50 points for this season is an expectation that is consistent with Gourde’s previous production. In his career, he has surpassed 20 goals three times and while he has surpassed 50 points just once, Gourde has two 48-point seasons to his credit as well.
Andre Burakovsky
Desperate to upgrade their skill level, the Kraken signed the Avalanche winger coming off the best season of his career, scoring 22 goals and 61 points. The challenge for Burakovsky will be trying to maintain his level of production even though his teammates will not be as skilled as those that he left in Colorado. The 27-year-old can play both wings and was effective while moving around the Avs lineup, so he should be able to inject some goals into the Seattle lineup. At least that is the expectation. While he might not match last season’s production, Burakovsky could deliver 25 goals and 55 points, which would be awfully valuable to a Kraken team that needs more goals.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Acquired in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Bjorkstrand is an excellent two-way winger who will immediately upgrade Seattle’s forward group. The 27-year-old had a career-high 28 goals and 57 points last season and even though he was minus-35, the Blue Jackets had outshot and out-chanced the opposition with Bjorkstrand on the ice. That he can score is not any kind of surprise, because he is a three-time 20-goal scorer, but Bjorkstrand has also delivered strong defensive results, and that probably makes him more valuable than the public might perceive. Bjorkstand could add 25 goals and 50-plus points to the Kraken, and the additions of Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand could go a long way towards providing the Kraken with the offensive punch they lacked last season.
Jordan Eberle
The veteran winger had his seventh 20-goal season, which was expected, but his overall impacts were not as strong as they had been in previous seasons with the New York Islanders. Now 32, Eberle can still provide offense but might be getting to the point at which he provides secondary offense because decline should be coming and Eberle has never been one to rely on physical gifts so much as positioning, anticipation, and intelligence to get into scoring position. Eberle could reasonably be expected to contribute 20 goals and 45 points this season.
Jaden Schwartz
A 30-year-old left winger with a strong reputation for his ability to drive play, but also a reputation for missing time with injuries, Schwartz could still drive play last season, but he scored on just 7.9% of his shots and missed 45 games due to a broken hand, upper and lower-body injuries. Getting a healthy Schwartz for the 2022-2023 season should be a plus for the Kraken because he can still get the puck moving the right way when he is on the ice. Health is a big challenge for Schwartz, as he has missed at least a dozen games in four of his past five seasons. If he manages to stay healthy, though, 45-50 points is possible for Schwartz.
Alexander Wennberg
A playmaking center who is quietly effective defensively, Wennberg contributed 37 points in his first season with the Kraken, his most points in a season since 2016-2017. His ability to handle a defensive role helps free up others to play in scoring roles, but when he is on his game, Wennberg can be a skilled playmaker in his own right. He played quite a bit with Bjorkstand in Columbus, and they had success together, controlling 55.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts and 57.1% of 5-on-5 goals from 2017-2018 through 2019-2020. Considering the newfound depth on the Kraken roster, Wennberg probably won’t be asked to handle a major offensive role, so 35 points is a fair expectation.
Joonas Donskoi
The veteran winger had scored between 14 and 17 goals in four consecutive seasons before 2021-2022, when he scored two goals in 75 games. He is a low volume shooter, which is not ideal, but generally plays a solid enough game to comfortably fit in a middle six role, just so long as he does not finish with two goals in 75 games! With improved depth on the wings in Seattle, there is not going to be as much pressure on Donskoi to produce, but it also could mean fewer opportunities. Donskoi has also had shootout success in his career, as his success rate of 56.3% ranks fourth among active players with at least 10 attempts. It would seem impossible for Donskoi to score on such a low percentage (1.9%) of his shots again, so he should be able to score at least a dozen goals and maybe 30-35 points this season.
Ryan Donato
Typical depth wingers in the NHL are often of the crash and bang variety, players that may not have the most skill, but Donato leans more in that direction, so he might be a fourth line winger but is a shootout specialist and coming off a season in which he produced a career high 16 goals and 31 points. Donato has been successful on 47.4% of his career shootout attempts, ranking 11th among active players with at least 10 attempts. In any case, Donato does a fair job generating shots and a little offense and if he provides 15 goals and 30 points in a depth role, that would be good value.
Vince Dunn
Moving to Seattle was supposed to free up Dunn for his best offensive performance and he did play a career high 20:41 per game for the Kraken last season. Dunn’s 35 points tied his career best, set in 2018-2019, and he is the most offensively gifted of Seattle’s blueliners, but he should be able to produce more than he did last season. At 25-years-old, he is in his prime and if the Kraken have upgraded their offense enough, it would be reasonable to expect Dunn to bust out offensively, even if it is a year after it might have been anticipated. Unless the Kraken make a change on the blueline, Dunn is still their best bet to work on the power play so he should be able to exceed last year’s total of 35 points.
Adam Larsson
A steady stay-at-home blueliner, Larsson did produce a career high eight goals and 25 points in his first season with the Kraken, but his value is more related to his shot suppression skills. He is big and mobile and will lay his body on the line as both a hitter and shot blocker and while that is the type of game that can tend to age poorly, the 29-year-old has appeared in every game in three of the past four seasons. His steady presence remains valuable to the Kraken, even if he is not expected to ever produce huge point totals. While he has scored 20 points or more in three different seasons, that is a tad optimistic for Larsson’s production this season.
Jamie Oleksiak
The towering blueliner stepped into a regular role on the Kraken blueliner and played more than 19 minutes per game on his way to tying his career high in points with 17. Oleksiak did record a career high 182 hits while achieving positive shot differentials despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Oleksiak could be more aggressive offensively – the 29-year-old has shown that he can skate and handle the puck better than one might think of a 6-foot-7, 255-pound defenseman, so there could be room for a bigger contribution, but there is plenty of value in filling the role of a physically imposing shutdown defenseman, too. He might have the potential to record a 20-point season, but the fair expectation would be for a little less than that.
Justin Schultz
The 32-year-old right shot blueliner saw his role reduced significantly in Washington last season, as he averaged a career low 16:55 of ice time per game. He plays a relatively understated role at this stage of his career and yet his ability to make a good pass and get the puck moving out of the defensive zone still leads to favorable shot differentials. The Kraken could use that puck-moving element so Schultz is likely to see more ice time than he did with Washington last season, so there might be a path to greater point production. Schultz had 23 points last season but has had six seasons in which he has recorded more than 25 points, so 25-30 points is still a possibility this season.
GOALTENDING
Philipp Grubauer
The Seattle Kraken entered their inaugural season looking a bit like the cat that got the canary. They’d managed to lure Colorado Avalanche backstop Philipp Grubauer away from the presumed Stanley Cup favorites, forcing the Central Division club to scramble and overpay for a rental instead of entering the year with players they already knew and loved. The lack of a structured defensive system for Grubauer to learn, though, left the analysis-driven German netminder floundering in his new environment; where he was one of the league’s hottest commodities leading up to opening night, he was one of the biggest free agency letdowns by the time the regular season was over.
Grubauer had been open in the past about needing time to fully internalize a team’s desired defensive system in order to move within it comfortably, so Seattle’s disastrous start to their first year almost certainly left him desperate for some order and consistency. He missed reads and seemed to be moving on a different wavelength from his teammates some nights, which left him vulnerable to bad-angle shots and sloppy rebounds – and while Colorado’s monstrous offense was easily able to shelter him during his first-year learning curve with the Avalanche a few seasons ago, Seattle’s chaotic rookie year exposed his struggles and almost certainly made them a little bit worse. As a result, it seems like a no-brainer that his performance this year will be reliant on the team’s ability to give him something to work with – and until they’ve shown that they’re able to learn from last season’s mistakes, it’s not likely he’ll be inspiring much in the way of faith from fans and pundits alike.
Projected starts: 55-60
Martin Jones
Very few teams looked to be good fits for Martin Jones this off-season, after he once again struggled to regain his early career form during a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. His arrival with the Seattle Kraken, though, seems especially perplexing; like Philadelphia, the Kraken are a team that struggled to perform last year and need stability that Jones hasn’t offered in a number of years.
It feels a bit like a broken record to evaluate Martin Jones year after year as his career continues to exhibit strong Groundhog Day-esque tendencies. He still lacks the structure and balance to his lateral movements and reads that could stabilize his timing and close off the massive holes he opened up in his own crease for shooters to capitalize on, even after he finally left San Jose and opted for a fresh start clear across the continental United States. There’s not much that Philadelphia had to offer that made it seem likely that Jones would bounce back last year, which makes it hard to truly evaluate if he’s capable of ever reaching league-average full-season stats again. But the bad news is that Seattle, too, struggled from a systems stability standpoint last year. It’s hard to take a look at what Seattle did in their inaugural year and feel confident that Jones will turn things around.
Of course, there’s always a chance he won’t need to. If Philipp Grubauer is able to stabilize his own game for long enough, the Kraken could find themselves allowing Jones an incredibly short leash until Chris Driedger is able to return from their injured reserve list.
Projected starts: 20-25
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There were a lot of worthy teams to choose from this week, but we’re going to focus on the resurging Vegas Golden Knights, who have salvaged a terrible start in winning eight of their last 10 games. The message through the first two months was how they had to weather the storm while their top forwards returned from injury. Everyone not named Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith has been on the shelf and they have another one waiting with the recent trade for superstar center Jack Eichel), so they have to do what they can to stay above water while the cavalry gets healthy.
It looked like a tough sell at the beginning of the month. They couldn’t score, injuries resorted their team to more of a pop-gun offense and their team defense looked in shambles. Since November, they’ve righted the ship and this past week was a sign that they might be turning the corner, winning all three of their games. The most impressive of which being their 3-2 victory over a good Minnesota team where they got a couple of goals from deep in their organizational depth chart in the form of Paul Cotter and Jonas Røndbjerg.
What I love about these clips is that it’s two low-profile rookies scoring goals that you would see in almost any Vegas game the past few years. Search Alex Tuch highlights, and they would look just like this. The forward finds an opening, waits for a pass and then lets his skill do the work in a one-on-one matchup. Vegas has gotten a lot of these looks this year, but they’ve had a devil of a time converting on them. Just ask Keegan Kolesar, who is still waiting for his first goal of the year despite generating 27 scoring chances in 15 games. Vegas has been begging for anyone in their bottom-six to see the scoresheet and they’re finally started to get that this past week with these two call-ups making the most of their chances. Cotter was sent back to the AHL after this game to make room for the returning Mark Stone, but he and Røndbjerg made very good first impressions that could go a long way if Vegas’ other depth forwards continue to struggle.
While the goals were nice, this does illustrate one of the problems Vegas has had this year, which is the lack of sustained possessions and playing more of a pop-gun offense compared to year’s past. With the exception of Smith and Marchessault, Vegas forwards have had to do most of their damage off the rush and it’s put more stress on their defense. Not just in terms of trading chances, but with how aggressive they play in the offensive zone. The Knight’s defense was one of the best in the league at generating chances and acting as the fourth forward. They had more shots generated off cross-seam passes and off plays from behind the goal line than any other team last year. The strategy hasn’t changed this year, but the dissipating forward talent has taken its toll on their defense a bit. Jared Spurgeon’s goal from Thursday’s game is a good example of that.
Notice how Nic Hague (14 on Vegas) pinches along the left wall after the dump-in. It’s a routine play for Vegas, but the Wild make a quick exit. There’s a forward back to cover, but his man doesn’t score the goal. Instead, it’s a cutting Jared Spurgeon, who wins the race against Hague (who had his momentum carrying him the other way when he missed the puck on his pinch) to score the goal. If you look at a lot of the goals Vegas has given up this year, a lot of it is from the defense being over aggressive while the puck is in front of them and it’s how they have to play while their top forwards are on the mend. Sometimes it works, as we’ve seen with Shea Theodore having four points in his last three games but even then, most of his goals have come off faceoff plays and d-to-d passes rather than off the rush, which is what Vegas has struggled at. Theodore and Pietrangelo have been under scrutiny for their defensive play this year and while that is starting to correct itself, it’s hard to ignore the trickledown effect from the forward injuries.
Vegas’ three most relied on defenders are in the “overworked” quadrant of this chart, which means they’re getting targeted by opposing forwards a lot and they’re giving up a high number of chances when other teams enter the zone against them. If you look at their game-by-game stats from an Expected Goals perspective, you’ll see that it’s a lot of very good games mixed with some awful games. So, there is a major feast-or-famine element to their defense now and the team’s results have followed suit. Is this a result of their defense playing more aggressive in the offensive zone and getting burned when their risks don’t pay off? Vegas runs their offense through their defense corps more than most teams and if the forwards aren’t as in-sync as they were last year, guys like Pietrangelo and Theodore are going to get stretched more. The puck either has to stay higher in the zone or the defense has to do more to retrieve pucks if the forwards can’t create any sustained pressure. Vegas’ top-four is good enough to handle this (although getting Martinez back for more than one game would be nice), but there is a higher risk of turnovers leading to rush chances the other way with one defenseman being left on an island. Is this something that can be corrected once the team gets healthy? Possibly, but you’re going to see some extreme results on both sides of the coin from the Knights’ top players until then.
The good news for the Knights is that the reinforcements are on their way. Mark Stone returned this Saturday, Alec Martinez returned before taking a skate to the face early in the Minnesota game and they have a major addition coming in a few months with Jack Eichel. That and they’ve managed to weather the storm with this recent 10-game stretch and will have to tread water until everyone is healthy. Vegas is still a good team who likely be in a playoff spot come May, but some of these cracks in the armor show that they aren’t the runaway favorites in the division anymore.

McDavid is in a class of his own when it comes to how ridiculous he is in transition, so I’m going to make an effort not to feature him every week. It’s tough to do that when he has a game like he did against Boston last Thursday. McDavid carried the puck in on all nine of his zone entries, three of which led to scoring chances (which is really tough to do in one game). He also contributed to nine shots at even strength, producing three scoring chances and setting up two.
Rewatching the footage was interesting because it was more like a chess match than McDavid just dominating from the onset. He could gain the line against Boston’s defense but couldn’t get past the first layer for most of the first period. Then in the second he started to find openings, flying the zone for a breakaway on one opportunity and retrieving the puck in the corner to setup Zach Hyman for a goal late in the second period. He also led a couple of give-and-gos. He finished the game with only one point, but it could have easily been another three point night for him with some better luck/finishing.
Nashville is low-key one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a three game win streak while boasting some very strong underlying numbers at five-on-five. It’s been a by-committee effort from them. Matt Duchene found his scoring touch again, Mikael Granlund is producing, Luke Kunin is off to a great start, but it all comes back to their captain Roman Josi. The star defenseman has been the gold standard for puck-rushing defensemen in recent seasons and we saw a little of that in their overtime win over St. Louis in Thursday night.
Josi had eight zone entries, seven of which were with control of the puck. It’s a high number for a defenseman, but a typical game for Josi. However, the way he did this was a little different than in years past. Instead of going end-to-end, he wasn’t the first guy back to retrieve the puck on a lot of these plays, deferring to his partner Dante Fabbro. Why this is important is that it gives him more options when carrying the puck through neutral ice. He’s already by the first forechecker, so there’s going to be more open ice and more support options with him. It gives Nashville a different layer to their offense and makes their rush chances a little more dangerous instead of having Josi creating something out of nothing. Josi might get all the stats, but all of Nashville’s roster deserves some recognition for how they’ve played the past 10 games.
It’s amazing what starting the season with a couple of goals can do for your confidence. Anaheim’s Tory Terry has been on fire to start the year with 20 points in 15 games and Sunday night’s game against Vancouver was just another night at the office for him. Always very skilled and active with his stick, the roadblock for Terry was turning highlight reel plays into consistent results. So far, he’s been able to do that and then some.
He had the puck on a string all night, producing three scoring chances and setting up 15 shots on goal (including power plays). Everything just looked so easy for him, as he was doing a little of everything. Quarterbacking Anaheim’s power play from the right wall, helping them lead breakouts (6 exits with possession), leading rushes (6 zone entries) and being a good support player in the offensive zone when he wasn’t the one spearheading the rush. Looking like a nice depth piece who could maybe hit 40 points in a good season, Terry has played like Anaheim’s version of Mark Stone to start the year. Might be an extreme comparison, but he really has been that good and it will be interesting to see where he levels out at once the points stop coming so easily. He probably won’t shoot at 30% forever, but he’s still an incredibly fun player to watch. Those who can’t stay up for Anaheim games are in for a treat as the Ducks make their way through the East Coast this coming week.

Seattle Kraken
Unlike Vegas, the Kraken’s start has resembled more of what people expect from an expansion team, winning only four of their first 15 games and sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. They’re a weird team to breakdown because on one hand, it’s an expansion team that didn’t have much offensive firepower heading into the year. On the other hand, they invested heavily in team defense and goaltending both in the expansion draft and free agency. They currently have the worst team save percentage in the league (both at 5v5 and in all situations) with their starter Philipp Grubauer posting an ugly .880 mark over 12 games.
I tend to defer to goalie experts since it’s not my area of expertise, but it’s hard to believe that Grubauer would become a replacement level goalie one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. Even when you factor in how his current situation is a total 180 from where he was in Colorado, where he maybe saw 10 scoring chances a night at most, it was tough to see him playing this poorly. Some of the goals in the Anaheim game were tough to watch, particularly the two point shot goals he let in.
These are the types of goals that will probably be stopped more frequently as the year goes on. The Kraken’s five-on-five offense has started to come around, sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of goal-scoring (a hot streak from Jordan Eberle is mostly to thank for that), so the goaltending will likely trend towards the league average. Grubauer should settle in and learn his defense’s tendencies more, which should lead to fewer leaky goals.
Their power play, on the other hand, will be a tougher riddle to solve. Only the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins have scored fewer power play goals per 60 minutes this year and even that is slightly boosted from the late tally they scored against Minnesota. The lack of a go-to guy hurts the most here, as they’ve resorted to Mark Giordano point shots as their default play with Morgan Geekie firing one-timers from the right circle at the secondary option. Their best option, Jordan Eberle, has only one power play goal all season because he’s stuck waiting for a pass in the slot or a rebound in front of the net. Getting Jared McCann’s shot back in the lineup helps, but the Kraken have had a tough time getting the puck on the stick of their best player’s when playing with the man advantage.
They’ve gone to some interesting tactics to fix this, one of which included putting the towering defenseman Jamie Oleksiak in the netfront role, but nothing has really worked. They can only score if they get a passing lane open below the faceoff circles, which are pretty easy to eliminate if you’re a penalty killer. They have some players who are patient and creative enough to get the pass through the box from the halfwall (hi Marcus Johansson) to complement some of their more tenacious netfront players like Yanni Gourde, so it will be interesting to see if they can get something to work here as the season progresses.
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DEFENSIVE EXPOSURE - The playoffs exposed some concerns on defense and Matt Murray returned to earth last season, his first as the undisputed starter, in a difficult season punctuated by personal tragedy (the death of his father) and injury (concussion). His spot was covered by two rookie goaltenders in his absence in 23-year-old Tristan Jarry, (23-14-16, 2.77 GAA, 0.908 SV%) who could probably use more time in the AHL. 26-year-old Casey DeSmith may be more likely to enter the season as backup appearing solid in 14 games (14-11-6-4, 2.40 GAA, 0.921 SV%) and two seasons in the AHL. A battle to watch in training camp.
Their defense was exposed against both Philadelphia and in their loss to eventual cup winners Washington. The allowed more than four goals in six of the 12 contests, losing five of those games. Their only off-season move of any significance was to sign Jack Johnson to a five-year contract at $3.25 million AAV. 31-year-old Johnson is looking to revive his career which stalled in Columbus, seeing time as a healthy scratch down the stretch last season. They also moved out salary cap in shipping out Conor Sheary and Matt Hunwick in a trade but still have precious little room for more moves. Do not count out crafty GM Rutherford from doing something more, since his only other significant signing was veteran and Penguin alumni Matt Cullen for a depth role.

BIG GUNS SPREAD OUT - Upfront they keep their big guns on separate lines with net front beast Patric Hornqvist and speedy Carl Hagelin lining up with Malkin. Crosby and Jake Guentzel work largely as a tandem, with Bryan Rust or departed Sheary last season, but look for 21-year-old Daniel Sprong to get a good look on the wing there.
Phil Kessel was tried with Malkin often early in the season but was lined up most frequently with Derick Brassard, acquired at the trade deadline, and an assortment of wingers by the end of the year. Brassard struggled with injury according to GM Rutherford and will be interesting what a full season can bring for the tandem. His ice time dropped by over three minutes a game going from Ottawa to Pittsburgh and will not see a lot of power play time. Kessel has been mentioned in trade rumours again this summer and would bring a nice package and perhaps the answer they are looking for on the back end.
Not a lot of change upfront, but they remain one of the most impressive forward groups in the NHL. While the lines are defined coach will put the superstars out together in key situations. They benefitted from a healthy season from Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, both of whom had more than their share of health issues over the years.
Crosby is still in the argument as the best player in the game. His monster playoff last year (12-9-12-21) spoke volumes about what he is still capable of. While he is your captain your goal is always the cup.
The defense is the area of concern, assuming Matt Murray returns to form after an off season, but is fairly set heading into the season. They have five defenders signed up for the next three seasons, and four for the next four seasons. Letang, Jamie Oleksiak, Brian Dumoulin, Olli Maatta, and Johnson with Justin Schultz signed for two more. The Penguins have always been one of the best teams in the league for developing prospect who play as regulars on the NHL club, which is remarkable given how few high draft picks, or indeed draft picks, they have had over the years. The establishment of Dumoulin and Maatta as NHL regulars and reliable contributors was an important development for the organization and allowing them to stay competitive. Maatta was finally healthy last season after a few health scares in his career.
The defense is led by the inimitable Kris Letang, both an offensive force, and solid defender. When healthy one of the most dynamic defenseman in the league. An intuitive connection to Crosby and Malkin and always deadly when the three of them are on the ice. He has bravely fought serious injury and come back time and again.
OUTLOOK - Fourth in goals per game, 20th in goals against, 23rd in save percentage are all indicators of a team that is reliant on elite level offense to convert a loss to victory. The offense will remain, but can the young defense take another step forward and provide solid play? Will Rutherford make moves, if not in the pre-season then at the deadline? A good season from Matt Murray and they will be a threat for the championship regardless.
]]>Josh Weissbock who is working on a machine learning project has also been testing theories to measure proxy's for possession using the AHL.
Josh expanded on this:
One of the main proxies for possession is Fenwick - the summation of shot attempts for both teams at even strength (less blocked shot), either represented as a differential or a percentage. Teams over 50% are strong possession teams, while teams under are usually struggling. Nicholas Emptage compared the Fenwick Close % to Shots For % of all NHL teams over the last five years and found an r correlation of 0.925. Over a large sample size Shots For % and Fenwick Close % become quite close.
To create a proxy for possession in the AHL, I looked at all games that have been played so far this year (up to 13 November), added up each teams Shots For and Shots Against and calculated their Shots For %. I executed this with a Python script so during the season I can continue to update these numbers.
The following are the top-5 with the Stars as the headliners.
| Texas Stars | 660 | 501 | 56.85% |
| Syracuse Crunch | 486 | 399 | 54.92% |
| San Antonio Rampage | 600 | 516 | 53.76% |
| Worcester Sharks | 405 | 349 | 53.71% |
| Toronto Marlies | 463 | 404 | 53.40% |
The results require further refinement and an expansion of data to add value, but with the lineup of players below and AHL leading scorer Travis Morin, the concept of the Stars outshooting their opposition is very likely, although it's not determined to be a factor in winning games.
After a 1-2 weekend, the Stars head home for a three-game home stand, one game that includes the Toronto Marlies as they hit the road. Let's get to the prospects.
Vancouver Canucks 3rd round selection in 2009 was shipped to the Stars organization at the trade deadline in 2012-13 after spending three seasons with the Vancouver affiliate Manitoba Moose/Chicago Wolves combination .. big and agile, the mobile defender flashed glimpses of imagination and rushing skills .. showed a particular creativity and penchant for controlled offensive zone entry, but couldn’t progress the play without support .. some entries seemed forced, with entry attempts through traffic, or in spots where little space or hole(s) exists – end result a turnover at the blueline .. a frustrating play when there are other options to gain the zone .. overall strong two-way game .. resilient presence in the defensive zone, ensuring proper positions, and not allowing anyone between himself and the net .. gap control is good, some agility concerns keep it from tightening up .. consistent in efforts to join the rush, or support the offense closely as they moved up ice, or by pinching off the point and getting into positions deep in the offensive zone – sometimes scrambling to get back defensively .. could learn to simplify things at times and learn when he can go all out as an added offensive tool, or when to sit and watch the play develop .. reaching 24 years old and in his fourth AHL .. something has to break to get to the next level, a task proving to be more difficult than it first appeared.
Niagara IceDogs sniper capped a brilliant OHL season (53-41-35-76) with an eye-opening professional debut (5-3-1-4) and continuing into 2013-14 (18-3-9-12) playing on a second line with secondary powerplay time .. Stars 2nd round pick in 2011 (44th overall) was used on the point in the second unit, slotting down to the hash marks from the point spot into the umbrella formation and occasional foray to the front of the net .. strong on the forecheck finishes his checks if he gets in close enough to puck carrier, but otherwise hard to shake off as a chaser while diligently blocking off skating lanes and using his stick to limit passing lanes/outlets for opposition to breakout .. skating is strong, with occasional sloppiness in his stride at times (right leg kicks out more than the left leg) but is a top level speedster .. improvements could be made from perspective of backchecking efforts and compete level when engaging along with keeping on his man instead of being distracted by watching the puck .. will let up, lose a stride or momentum and fight to get back into positioning which by that time separation has been established .. given prime shifts in the third period with the game tied to break open the scoring stalemate, a testament to his scoring prowess .. underrated passing ability, overshadowed by finishing touch .. meteoric rise continues.
Mammoth Dallas 1st round pick in 2011 (14th overall) listed at 6-foot-7, 241 pounds .. impressive mobility and industry for a man his size .. played with a full face mask that seemed to bother him at some junctions, including board battles where he would need to move his head to see the puck below him .. regardless, stood up well to being checked in the corner, planting himself while absorbing the hit – and opponent bouncing off the thickness in his frame .. impossible to be moved if he’s planted and determined .. still, can sometimes chase his opponent when not in position or if his gap isn’t tight .. steps into the rush as support and seemed to favor using long reach and outside speed to get around the defense for a scoring chance .. skating allowed him to get right back in position after the failed attempt .. slotted as the lone defenseman at the top of the umbrella on the PP .. quite a bit of skill at the end his blade, in an example where he tried to toe-drag the puck standing still just outside the Marlies blueline around two players, and would have worked if he had space (tried to not go offside) .. likes to handle the puck, doesn't give up possession easily .. second period powerplay where he was too slow to move and almost had the puck stripped off him by aggressive forechecker was indicative of some of the upgrades in pace and urgency needed at the next level, despite having a long reach to play ‘keep away’ he has to still move his feet – a guilty trait that has to be polished before a permanent call up to the show.
Hulking Czech winger listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds chosen as a late pick in 2011, in the 6th round, 165th overall .. former Saskatoon Blade scoring sensation is a quick, hunched over skater who seems to be more hunched on a sluggish start up and straightening out as he gets up to speed .. strong edges and turning radius when up to speed .. generally kept his feet moving when required .. keen positional awareness in all zones, with a particular emphasis on coverage in his defensive zone as the high winger .. enthusiastic about backchecking and doesn’t give up on the play, regardless of the space required to be a factor .. showed some rare glimpses of fast hands and quick feet .. played in a secondary role behind Ritchie and didn’t see a lot of powerplay time .. tough and resilient, will fight through traffic and protects the puck well with a long reach .. potent shot was only used in limited capacity .. intriguing career trajectory, as long as he can improve his skating and learn to get more to the net area than he showed in this particular game.
Former Brandon Wheat Kings pivot entered his third AHL season suiting up for the first time in November after suffering concussion-like symptoms in the preseason .. defensively responsible, both positional and as a backchecker .. lacked the ability to create on his own, and may require a support partner to be effective .. despite that, he was used on the powerplay, exploiting puck retrieval skills .. an aggressive forechecker as a penalty killer, chasing the puck carrier and forcing them to hurry a play or create turnovers .. short, quick strides and impressive top gear, lacks some agility and large turn radius .. delay to season debut aside, he’s put up four points in the first three games and then blanked in the subsequent three, to the time of this writing .. given opportunity to create offense and be more than a hard working two-way pivot with little offensive punch – as would be expected of a 1st round pick, especially when selected 8th overall.
Second home grown 6th round selection (2009, 159th overall) the former Redhawks forward – and former teammate of departed Boston Bruins winger Reilly Smith – has flourished early in his first full season as a professional, lining up on the first line and first unit powerplay duties .. quick off the hop and segues into a smooth stride .. consistently gained an edge when using size and strength to hold off defenders .. stable on his feet too .. positional in the defensive zone, maintain unswerving focus on his own zone, despite temptation to engage in other quadrants .. stays in the zone until the puck left the zone .. flattened from behind in the third period and then had a Marlies player land right on top of him in the ensuing scramble yet got right back up and joined the play without incident .. inherited a great spot next to Travis Morin (14-10-15-25) and Colton Sceviour .. production is very reliant on the powerplay when adding veteran Chris Mueller into the mix.
The 24-year old blueliner was airlifted from Lake Erie, affiliate to Colorado in exchange for Tomas Vincour at the 2013 trade deadline and dressed in his 200th AHL game in his second game as a member of the Stars .. failed to crack the Stars deep blue line edged out by Jordie Benn after signing a one year two-way contract with the Stars .. a low event player that could be lost in the scenery, providing solid support and generally a good option .. lacks some agility to keep his gap tight .. excessive movements but very strong and effective at separating the man from the puck with a little force .. dependant on good positioning and an aggressive nature, however, approaching his mid-twenties and being passed on the depth chart.
Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
]]>Here are some of the more intriguing newcomers sorted by NHL affiliate (click on the player's name to access their full profile):
Hampus Lindholm (Norfolk Admirals, Ana) - Shot to prominence helping Rogle earn promotion to Sweden's Elitserien - after making his A-team debut in December .. asssumed increasing duties in the playoffs (6-0-0-0) - and relegation phase (10-1-4-5, plus-5) that knocked Djurgardens to the Allsvenskan .. the Helsingborg native then joined the U-18 World Juniors, winning silver and being named a top-three performer by coaches (6-0-4-4) ..
Mark Pysyk (Rochester Americans, Buf) - Oil Kings captain was a subtle steady force in his fourth WHL season - and a prime factor behind Edmonton's first-ever league championship .. handled the toughest assignments and was the backbone of a young blueline that carried three 17-year-olds .. fired a vital game-winner in Game 5 of the WHL finals (20-3-8-11, plus-9), while contributing a team-high three assists (tied) at the Memorial Cup ..
Sven Bartschi (Abbotsford Heat, Cgy) - Swiss import teamed up with Ty Rattie to terrorize the WHL - finishing with a career-best 94 points in 47 games - and the league's highest points-per-game average .. led all playoff scorers with 34 points (22-14-20-34, plus-11) featuring a six-game goal streak (6-8-2-10) .. a standout at Calgary's training camp - and again during a five-game NHL debut in March, scoring in three consecutive games ..
Jeremy Welsh (Charlotte Checkers, Car) - Drew heavy NHL interest with a school-record 27 goals as a junior leading underling Union College to a first-ever Frozen Four appearance .. undrafted Bayfield, Ontario native was named a second-team All-American - and 'Most Outstanding Player' at the NCAA regionals .. made a respectable NHL debut in the season finale, days after losing in the Frozen Four semi-finals ..
Joey Hishon (Lake Erie Monsters, Col) - Sat out the `11-12 season recovering from a concussion related to a wicked hit in the opening game of the 2011 Memorial Cup .. previously rebounded from an injury-plagued `09-10 campaign to lead Owen Sound to an OHL title, finishing second in playoff scoring (22-5-19-24) .. finally cleared for takeoff in May, tweeting his successful recovery via 'hyperbaric oxygen therapy' ..
Jamie Oleksiak (Texas Stars, Dal) - Overcame a tentative OHL start to make sizeable gains - especially after moving to Niagara in a January trade .. propelled the IceDogs to a 25-4 finish (28-6-15-21, plus-27) .. played more conservatively in the playoffs (20-0-4-4) .. won World Junior bronze with Team Canada .. naturally strong and thick - already an imposing 245 pounds and counting ..
Justin Schultz (Oklahoma City Barons, Edm) - Built on a sophomore breakout with 16 goals as a junior to become the first defenseman in Wisconsin school history to lead the team in goals .. led all NCAA blueliners in scoring for a second straight year, while also repeating as first-team All-American and WCHA ‘Defensive Player of the Year‘ .. spurned Anaheim to become a free agent in July ..
Tyler Toffoli (Manchester Monarchs, LA) - Ottawa captain led the OHL in goals for a second straight time - finishing runnerup in league scoring with 100 points - after sharing the crown in `10-11 .. paced the 67's in playoff scoring (18-11-7-18) - though silenced by Niagara in the conference finals (5-1-1-2, minus-6) .. an OHL First-Team All-Star for a second time .. enters the pro ranks riding back-to-back 50-goal seasons ..
Mikael Granlund (Houston Aeros, Min) - Blitzed the SM-Liiga (10-10-4-14) leading up to the World Juniors, where he tied for second in tournament scoring and was a media all-star (7-2-9-11) .. not as vibrant thereafter as a lingering flu-like illness cost him the final eight regular-season games and contributed to a mediocre playoff and World Championship .. posted the league's second-best points-per-game average (1.13) ..
Nathan Beaulieu (Hamilton Bulldogs, Mtl) - Tied for fifth in scoring among QMJHL defensemen with a career-best 52 points - winning a third straight regular-season title - and nearly a second straight Memorial Cup crown (4-0-4-4) .. did hit some rough moments - highlighted by coverage breakdowns in the semi-final loss to Shawinigan in which he posted a minus-4 rating .. won a World Junior bronze medal with Team Canada (6-0-1-1) ..
Brock Nelson (Bridgeport Sound Tigers, NYI) - Enjoyed a sensational sophomore emergence to rank third in the nation with 28 goals, including a league-best 20 in WCHA conference play (28-20-13-33) .. the nephew of former NHLer Dave Christian .. tall, poised forward with soft hands and a large wingspan .. led North Dakota with a plus-18 rating ..
J.T. Miller (Connecticut Whale, NYR) - Left North Dakota holding the bag last summer after suddenly reneging on a commitment and joining a strong Plymouth club .. impressed early (31-13-26-39) - prior to representing Team USA at the World Juniors (6-2-2-4) - but tapered off in the second half - and in a disappointment playoff (13-2-8-10) ..
Jakob Silfverberg (Binghamton Senators, Ott) - Reached historic heights in his third full Elitserien season - capturing MVP in both the regular season and playoffs .. caught fire over the second half, ending the regular season on a 15-game points streak (15-11-13-24) .. fired a record 13 playoff goals, breaking Daniel Alfredsson's mark, including the game-winner that secured his hometown Brynas club their first title in 13 years (17-13-7-20, plus-17) ..
Brandon Gormley (Portland Pirates, Phx) - Acquired in January for a player and six draft picks - and proved to be worth every penny .. joined Shawinigan after winning World Junior bronze with Team Canada - earning 'Top Defenseman' honours (6-3-3-6) .. missed the final 16 games to a foot injury (Feb) - but returned for the playoffs (7-5-2-7) - and then led the Cataractes to a first-ever Memorial Cup title ..
Joe Morrow (Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Pit) - Soared to a breakout 17 goals and finishing second in scoring among WHL blueliners with a career-high 64 points .. tied for the playoff scoring lead among defensemen - helping Portland reach the finals (22-4-13-17) .. named to the WHL First All-Star Team .. drew a two-game February suspension for a hitting-from-behind major - and also took a number of aggression penalties in the playoffs ..
Jaden Schwartz (Peoria Rivermen, StL) - Turned pro at the conclusion of his sophomore year and fit right into the Blues' lineup (7-2-1-3) - firing a game-winning goal in his first-ever NHL game .. led Colorado College in scoring for a second consecutive season - missing six games over Christmas captaining Canada to World Junior bronze (6-2-3-5) - adding to a silver medal from 2011 ..
Vladislav Namestnikov (Syracuse Crunch, TB) - Perked up in time to make vital contributions in London's trek to an OHL crown and Memorial Cup final .. fired four playoff goals - all game-winners (19-4-14-18, +10) - and scored twice in Shawinigan (4-2-0-2) including a masterful spinning tip .. cooled in the second half, hampered by a hip-pelvis injury that cost him a spot with Russia's World Juniors .. nephew of former NHLer Slava Kozlov ..
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