Jared Moe – McKeen's Hockey

NCAA: Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview and Predictions

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 06 Mar 2020 15:46:41 +0000

The NCAA tournament is selected through a mathematical formula called the Pairwise. The top 16 seeds make it, but six seeds are reserved for the tournament winners from each DI conference. Once those six tournament berths are awarded, the remaining 10 slots are awarded to the teams in order of their Pairwise ranking.

ANN ARBOR, MI - JANUARY 31: Ohio State Buckeyes forward Matthew Jennings (19) moves the puck away from Michigan Wolverines forward Jimmy Lambert (23) during the Michigan Wolverines game versus the Ohio State Buckeyes on Friday January 31, 2020 at Yost Ice Arena Center in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

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At the conclusion of a remarkably tight Big Ten schedule, the postseason is upon us. Inappropriately named, the Big Ten has but seven teams competing in Men’s Hockey (the talk of the University of Illinois making it eight has quieted down of late). Seven competitors requires some creativity in setting up a playoff, and the conference has risen to that challenge with a structure that gives the top seeded team a bye week while the runners-up play the basement dwellers, the three seed plays the six and the fourth and fifth seeded teams square off in best of three series in the home arenas of the higher ranked teams. Those short sets all take place this weekend, Friday, Saturday, and, as needed, on Sunday.

I mentioned above that the conference this year has played remarkably tight. Penn State come away as the regular season champions, but only one victory (three points) ahead of runners-up Ohio State. The same three-point gap between Penn State and Ohio State is the gap between OSU and sixth seed Michigan State. If Wisconsin could only keep the puck out of their own net once in a while – they surrendered 124 goals in 34 games, a full 30 goals more than the next most porous team – the parity in the conference could have been historic. Alas.

Before we get into the matchups, we should discuss another notable aspect of the Big Ten in 2019-20. I had written above about how Wisconsin couldn’t stop the puck and further how their inability in that domain was significantly worse than the rest. This is notable less due to Wisconsin’s own ineptitude in net, but due to the other six teams all featuring goaltenders who could be the objects of NHL teams’ attentions once their seasons are over. This is even more remarkable as only Minnesota has a drafted netminder (two, in fact). As for Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Michigan State, they all field starting goalies who were overlooked at the draft but are legitimate candidates to be offered Entry Level Contracts as undrafted free agents after this season or in the near future. As I write about each team in their first-round matchup, I will spend extra time introducing you to the goalies of record.

Regular Season Champ (First Round Bye): Penn State (20-10-4, 12-8-4-1 Big Ten)

The regular season champs play an exciting brand of high-event hockey. They scored 79 goals in conference play and 121 overall both marks that topped their peers. On the other hand, only Wisconsin allowed more than their 70 goals against in conference play. They took 64 shots on net more than the runners up and their shots allowed total was closer (albeit marginally) to the bottom than the top of the conference. They had the best power play, and the best penalty kill, although the latter unit got a ton of practice, as the Nittany Lions were among the most penalized teams in the conference.

One might think that a team like this is all offense, and they wouldn’t be half wrong. Penn State had six players reach the 25-point mark, with three scoring at a point-per-game clip. Those six top scorers were a savvy, veteran crew, which included the team’s top five scorers from last season (Nate Sucese, Evan Barratt, Alex Limoges, Liam Folkes, and Brandon Biro), joined by blueliner Cole Hults. Of that group, Barratt most has the look of a future NHLer, albeit unlikely to be more than a third liner. That said any of them could reasonably find their ways up the pro ranks.

In net, we have Peyton Jones, whose brother Nolan plays baseball in the Cleveland system. Peyton has near idea; size at 6-4” and over 200 pounds. He is impressively mobile for his size. The senior has been a workhorse throughout his collegiate career, with this year’s 30 starts (s0 far) being his fewest in a full season. He saved his best season for last though, improving his save percentage from barely over .900 to a lofty .919. Between his size, athleticism and ability to stop pucks, he should find his way to the AHL next season, likely on an NHL deal.

Drafted players: Kevin Wall (CAR), Clayton Phillips (PIT), Evan Barratt (CHI), Denis Smirnov (COL), Cole Hults (LA)

2 Ohio State (18-11-5, 11-9-4-1 Big Ten) vs 7 Wisconsin (14-18-2, 7-15-2-2 Big Ten)

Like Penn State, Ohio State can score with the best, but occasionally has had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. In fact, in conference play, they have surrendered exactly as many goals as they have scored, 62 apiece. They tied for 2^nd in the conference on points with Michigan and Minnesota but win the tie breaker as they have more victories. If goal-differential was the tie breaker instead, the Buckeyes would have finished in fourth. The funny thing is, when they won the conference last year, their goals allowed metrics were practically the same as this year. The difference between 2018-19 and now is that they have scored significantly less this year.

Despite the presence of the gifted playmaker Tanner Laczynski and a rapidly improving Quinn Preston on the roster, among others, they have not made up for the graduation of top line current pros Mason Jobst and Dakota Joshua. In fact, there is a pretty big dropoff in production after OSU’s top four scorers – Laczynski, Preston, Carson Meyer, and Gustaf Westlund – and the rest of the roster. With two of those four graduating after the season, this may be the end of a window of contention for Ohio State that saw them make the tournament four years in a row, including one appearance in the Frozen Four, after not getting out of the conference for seven straight years.

Manning the crease for OSU is big Tommy Nappier. In the last two years as a full-time starter, his save percentage has been between .929-.934. He is tall and broad-shouldered. Some would consider him portly. (Some scouts have used less-polite terms). But he doesn’t just rely on his frame to block pucks. He plays an aggressive, athletic game. He challenges the shooters, can scramble back to the goal line in a pinch. His reactions are quick, and I would recommend slightly toning down the aggressiveness, as he can get caught out on occasion being too far from the goal mouth, but his track record is phenomenal. Nappier has been one of the better goalies in the NCAA over the last two years and I would be somewhat surprised if he isn’t offered an NHL contract in the next month or so.

Then we have Wisconsin. Rarely does a team with so much talent on the surface play so poorly. Among Big Ten schools, only Minnesota (14) has more than Wisconsin’s 12 drafted players. And none of the other schools have more than the Badgers three first rounders. And I am not even considering Dylan Holloway here, who is widely expected (including by us) to be a first round pick this June.

The Badgers can score with the best of teams in the NCAA. Their 110 goals are behind only Penn State in the conference and are tied for 13^th nationally. The problems is that despite icing a blueline which includes five drafted players, they cannot keep pucks out. Their total of 3.65 goals allowed per game ranks third last nationally. That is partially a function of giving up too many prime scoring chances, as they rank 51/60 in shots allowed per game. That also underscores how poorly they have done in stopping the shots that they have faced. Starting netminder Daniel Lebedeff has an ugly .894 save percentage, the worst among all netminders in NCAA who have played in at least 25 games. If I lower the threshold to 20 games, two others slip below. The Finnish sophomore was no better as a freshman, nor really in his pre-collegiate days. His feet are all over the place, he is too often not square to the shooters. He is the only starting netminder in the conference that I would unequivocally state has no professional future in North America.

Of course, I wouldn’t say that about some of the skaters in front of him. Cole Caufield has flashed the elite goal scoring prowess that made him a first rounder last year, although he has slowed down in the second half of the year. Fellow first rounder Alex Turcotte also shows flashes of greatness albeit not as consistently game to game as one would prefer. The third first rounder on the roster, K’Andre Miller has shown more of a nasty side this year, although not always well timed nastiness. He still has first pairing potential for the NHL, but seems to have regressed some this year. For me, the Badger who has improved the most this year has been blueliner Ty Emberson. Always a very strong physical defensive presence, he has shown a bit more willingness to get involved at the offensive end. Wisconsin can be a really fun, but extremely frustrating team to watch. Even though most of the Badgers’ high-end players are underclassmen, Wisconsin may be hard pressed to keep players like those mentioned in this paragraph on campus for another year, considering how this year has gone.

Ohio State drafted players: Carson Meyer (CBJ), Tanner Laczynski (PHI), Ryan O’Connell (TOR), Layton Ahac (VGK)

Wisconsin drafted players: Ty Emberson (ARI), Linus Weissbach (BUF), Max Zimmer (CAR), Josh Ess (CHI), Tyler Inamoto (FLA), Jack Gorniak (MON), K’Andre Miller (NYR), Wyatt Kalynuk (PHI), Owen Lindmark (FLA), Alex Turcotte (LA), Cole Caufield (MON), Ryder Donovan (VGK)

Prediction: Ohio State in three, with the final being a nail biter.

3 Michigan (16-14-4, 11-10-3-2 Big Ten) vs 6 Michigan State (15-17-2, 11-11-2-0 Big Ten)

The first year of the post-Quinn Hughes era in Michigan has been underwhelming, but altogether not bad. The team offense was middle of the pack nationally, down around one-third of a goal from 2018-19. Thankfully for the Wolverines, they have more than made up for the set back by hacking over a full goal per game off of their goals allowed. Their 2.12 mark ranks eighth nationally and tops among Big Ten schools. They actually play a fairly well controlled team game and tend to control the possession, generating shot totals near the national lead.

The main challenge is that Michigan struggles to turn those shots into goals. Senior Jake Slaker was the only skater with more than eight goals on the year, and he was also the only one with more than 21 points. The two heralded freshman from the USNTDP class of 2019, first rounders Cam York and John Beecher, had solid debuts, but neither really dominated. I expect both to take over the team next year, especially Beecher, whose physical tools are rarely seen, but they aren’t there just yet. Not helping things is the step back from team captain William Lockwood, whose point production was cut by one third compared to last season.

As discussed above, Michigan’s defense has been the key to the team staying in games all year. As promising as Cam York is, and as solid as the likes of Jack Summers, Keaton Pehrson, and Luke Martin are, the lynchpin to that defense stood between the pipes, as it so often has for Big Ten teams this year. For the Wolverines, the player generally between the pipes has been Strauss Mann, who has become s the workhorse this year after splitting time in the net as a freshman last year. Listed at only 6-0”, Mann was never looked at as a top prospect, but maybe he should have been. Prior to going to school, he spent a year with Fargo of the USHL. He put up a .932 save percentage and led the Force to a championship. This was not a team loaded with NHL caliber talent, either, with only one skater who appeared in the playoffs who had been, or would be, drafted. Mann wasn’t great as a freshman for the Wolverines, but sits on a .936 save percentage now, sixth in the nation. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with positioning, staying square to the shooter, a good glove hand, and strong lateral mobility. Another season like this one and NHL teams will be more willing to overlook his stature.

Michigan State are a long way removed from their 2007 championship, but this season, as mediocre as it has seemed on the surface, was a big step in the right direction. Their 15 victories are their top mark since 2014-15. The Spartans still lack the offensive firepower to truly be a national contender, and their goals per game mark of 2.35 was only 48^th nationally and worst in the Big Ten. The team has two drafted forwards, but they combined for only nine points on the season – equal to the contributions of the team’s two drafted defensemen.

Clearly, Michigan State lacks in high end NHL talent, but there are a few players here who have earned the attention of NHL scouts. Big center Patrick Khodorenko, a senior, was not drafted out of the USNTDP, but has been at or close to a point per game since his sophomore season. His skating is a bit on the rough side, but his hockey IQ, great hands and sheer presence, should earn him an ELC. And still only 21 years old, he is quite young for a college senior. Big blueliner Jerad Rosburg, the son of an NFL coach, plays with a football mentality, as a physical and imposing stopper. The senior also is proving capable with the puck. Winger Mitch Lewandowski and defender Dennis Cesana still have eligibility after this year and lack the size of Khodorenko or Rosburg, but they have ensured that MSU should not be taken lightly.

Those four aside, the key to Michigan State’s hopes of winning the Big Ten for the first time and getting back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, rest in the form of another senior in netminder John Lethemon. After a rough freshman season, Lethemon was OK for the Spartans as a sophomore and as a junior, with .903 and .905 save percentages, respectively. Which is to say that he .937 mark this year was somewhat unexpected. He is a 6-3” butterfly netminder with a good glove and a conservative style that keeps him in the paint. He is very calm and tries to minimize the room an opponent has to shoot. He can scramble if needed, but his success has been a function of being ready for the first shot.

Michigan drafted players: Jack Becker (BOS), Luke Martin (CAR), Nick Pastujov (NYI), William Lockwood (VAN), John Beecher (BOS), Eric Ciccolini (NYR), Cam York (PHI)

Michigan State drafted players: Mitchell Mattson (CGY), Cole Krygier (FLA), Christian Krygier (NYI), Josh Nodler (CGY)

Prediction: Michigan State with the upset in three games. No more than five goals in any one game.

4 Minnesota (14-13-7, 9-8-7-4 Big Ten) vs 5 Notre Dame (14-13-7, 9-9-6-4 Big Ten)

Finally, we have our matchup of the mediocre. With all due respect to the two stories programs of Minnesota and Notre Dame – the former is a five time champion and the latter has reached the Frozen Four four times since 2008 – 2019-20 has simply not been their year for either school. In fact, neither school is likely to make the NCAA tournament barring a lengthy run in the Big Ten tournament. In Big Ten, Minnesota was the slightest bit better, as both teams won nine conference games, but Notre Dame has one extra loss while the Golden Gophers have an extra win. Minnesota scored four more times than they allowed while Notre Dame was dead even. Stepping outside of conference play, the two teams were even tighter, with identical 14-13-7 records, with goal differentials within two goals of one another. Even in head-to-head play, they were evenly matched up. Each team won once, and tied twice. The biggest differences in the teams are that Minnesota attempts fewer shots, but counters that with a better penalty kill and a better propensity for drawing penalties.

While they do a poorer job of controlling possession, I would say that Minnesota has better talent up and down its lineup, and not just because they have way more drafted players to draw from. The Golden Gophers get relatively little offense from their blueliners, but have a few talented forwards who can dazzle if not as consistently as one might wish. Samuel Walker is an undersized dynamo, with great speed and playmaking chops. Sampo Ranta, when he is at his best, is a very dangerous scoring threat, assertive and possessing a great wrist shot. I should also mention Brannon McManus and Blake McLaughlin, former teammates with the Chicago Steel, who have been strong secondary sources of offense this year.

Notre Dame’s offense is more evenly distributed, partially out of necessity as they lack any real dynamic threats, Senior Cam Morrison was the team’s leading scorer. Even though he has not lived up to his promise as a second round pick, he has a knack for winning puck battles and a quick shot. Undrafted Alex Steeves has been more impressive, nearly tripling his freshman year production thanks to his puck skills and strong shot, which help him overcome his skating limitations (he isn’t a bad skater, but that is what kept him from being drafted). Notre Dame does have the upper hand when it comes to offensive contributions from the blueline, with both Matthew Hellickson and Spencer Stastney strong puck movers. The former as a passer and the latter with his legs.

But we really just want to talk about goalies, don’t we? Minnesota not only has the only drafted goalie in the conference, they have the only two drafted goalies in the Big Ten. Jack Lafontaine and Jared Moe split the crease relatively evenly this year and both had equal .915 save percentages, although Moe’s GAA was approximately 0.25 lower. LaFontaine is the more experienced netminder and in my views he has been the steadier of the two. I would imagine he will get the first game and Minnesota will play the hot hand as they can. Ironically, even as the only two drafted netminders in the conference, I would out five others from within the conference ahead of them in terms of pro potential at this point in their respective careers.

One of those five is Notre Dame’s fourth year starter, Cale Morris. While he dealt with some injuries this year, and his .917 save percentage is his worst mark since his one game freshman campaign, scouts I have spoken with still unanimously mention him as a good goalie, one who they were surprised returned to Notre Dame for his senior season. He was already named the Mike Richter Award winner in his sophomore season, his first as a starter, considering his amazing .944 save percentage. He may be on the smaller side at 6-1”, but his has plus mobility, anticipates the play well and has a quick glove. He will be in demand once his season ends.

Minnesota drafted players: Ben Brinkman (DAL), Blake McLaughlin (ANA), Sampo Ranta (COL), Robbie Stucker (CLB), Tyler Nanne (NYR), Scott Reedy (SJ), Samuel Walker (TB), Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB), Jack Perbix (ANA), Jackson Lacombe (ANA), Ryan Johnson (BUF), Jack LaFontaine (CAR), Bryce Brodzinski (PHI), Jared Moe (WIN)

Notre Dame drafted players: Nathan Clurman (COL), Nicky Leivermann (COL), Cameron Morrison (COL), Jacob Pivonka (NYI), Spencer Stastney (NAS), Matthew Hellickson (NJ), Trevor Janicke (ANA)

Prediction – Notre Dame in a road sweep. Low scoring games both.

Predicting the rest of the tournament

After the opening round, the teams are re-seeded with single game elimination deciding things the rest of the way. If the predictions above play out, we will see the following:

1 Penn State vs 6 Michigan State

2 Ohio State vs 5 Notre Dame

Call me crazy, but I like Michigan State in front of John Lethemon over Peyton Jones and Penn State in an upset. The teams each went 2-2 in head-to-head matchups during the season. I think Khodorenko and Lewandowski can crack the often porous Penn State defense

Ohio State takes down Notre Dame in the other contest, although, again, the two teams are pretty evenly matched.

Finally, I will go with Ohio State winning the tournament over Michigan State because Cinderalla doesn’t always go all the way

NCAA 2019-20 Season Preview: Big Ten

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 14 Oct 2019 17:01:14 +0000

With seven schools participating, the Big Ten is inappropriately named. Even if/when the University of Illinois is granted a Division I team and joins the conference to which their other intramural athletics belong, there will only be eight schools in the Big Ten. Once upon a time, there were only ten schools in the historic conference, but it has been 20 years since that was last the case, as Penn State – then without a Division I hockey program – was granted entry to give the conference a round 11 teams.

Until that fateful day arrives when the Fighting Illini grow the sport, the Big Ten will be stuck on seven teams. And they are good teams, with rich histories (except for Penn State, which doesn’t yet have a history). Four different current Big Ten schools have made the Frozen Four championship game in the past decade, but somehow none have walked away with a title. The situation was almost comical in 2018, when the Frozen Four featured three squads from the Big Ten, plus one from the NCHC. The lone NCHC squad naturally ran the table for the title. The most recent Big Ten school to win the National Championship was Michigan State, which won all the marbles in 2007, capping off a run of four titles by three Big Ten schools in six years.

As always though, there is hope in the Midwest that the Big Ten will find a new champion this year. The seven schools have all recruited well and the schools are well coached, with one school in particular bringing in a veritable murderer’s row of high-end talent to supplement an already strong core. But we’ll get to that below. Let’s walk through the schools.

Michigan Wolverines

One the one hand, superstar Quinn Hughes is gone, off to the NHL to quarterback the building Vancouver Canucks’ power play. Fellow blueline stalwarts Joseph Cecconi and Nick Boka have also moved on. The only other significant departure is center Josh Norris, who missed the second half of last season to injury, who turned pro to sign with Ottawa. On the other hand, literally the rest of the team has returned, including captain Will Lockwood, passing on the chance to join Hughes in the Vancouver season to play out his senior year in Ann Arbor.

Besides Lockwood, the star attraction on the Wolverines’ roster this year will be Hughes’ direct replacement, highly touted freshman defender Cam York, like Hughes an alumnus of the USNTDP program, and likewise a first-round pick, having been selected last June by Philadelphia. He is expected to drive the offensive attack from day one. Another USNTDP first rounder joining the team along with York is big center John Beecher, who played a depth role with the UNSTDP last year, but is a fantastic skater and has enough in his hands to expect him to play a two-way top six role with Michigan. After Lockwood and Beecher, the offense features a number of upperclassmen who can contribute to the attack in Jake Slaker, Nick and Michael Pastujov, and Jake Becker. I would also keep an eye on sophomore Nolan Moyle, graduate transfer Jacob Hayhurst, who comes over from RPI, and incoming freshman Eric Ciccolini, who starred in Junior A in Ontario, who all have sleeper potential.

If Michigan is to be a successful team and not just a collection of talented players, they will need one or both of their returning netminders, Strauss Mann, and Hayden Lavigne to step up and stop more than 90% of shots faced, which neither managed last season.

Drafted Players: D Luke Martin (Car, 2^nd round, 2017), D Cam York (Phi, 1^st round, 2019), C Jack Becker (Bos, 7^th round, 2015), C John Beecher (Bos, 1^st round, 2019), RW Eric Ciccolini (NYR, 7^th round, 2019), RW Will Lockwood (Van, 3^rd round, 2016), LW Nick Pastujov (NYI, 7^th round, 2016)

Michigan State Spartans

After three consecutive last place finishes in the conference and having not finished above fifth since 2013-14, the Spartans return with an experienced roster with no lack of skilled players, attempting to turn around the school’s on-ice fortunes. Veteran Head Coach Danton Cole is only his third year in East Lansing, and to his credit, the number of players of interest on the squad has continued to rise, although perhaps not to the extent promised through his years coaching the USNTDP, as precious few of his former charges have followed Cole to MSU.

One who has been able to experience Cole in both location is bis center Patrick Khodorenko, who along with winger Mitchell Lewandowski, is expected to lead the attack, helping supporters move on from, if not outright forget, Taro Hirose, a 2018-19 Hobey Baker Finalist and the Big Ten player of the year, but skipped his senior year to sign with the Detroit Red Wings. At least he will be close by. Candidates to replace Hirose on the first line include seniors Logan Lambdin and Sam Saliba, or star recruit Josh Nodler, although in the latter scenario, either Nodler or Khodorenko would have to move to the wing, as both are natural centers. Nodler at least is a gifted play maker and could fill a similar function on the top line. The other big recruit to the Spartans is Switzerland native Nicolas Muller, who has a long international history for his mother land as well as a history of offensive production in the Swedish junior leagues.

Whichever wingman Cole chooses for his two big returning forwards, the team will not improve in the standings until they tighten up their defensive core. Twin blueliners Cole and Christian Krygier were both passable as freshmen, and Christian looked good in the national colors at the mid-summer World Junior Summer Showcase event. Tommy Miller and Jerad Rosburg round out a reasonable, if unspectacular top four. Similar compliments could be laid upon the returning netminders, Drew DeRidder and John Lethemon. Both stopped a touch better than 90% of the shots they faced last year, although they faced far too many shots for that to be enough. Their brand of high event hockey will be fun to watch, but without a tightening up in the back, they will fall short all too often.

Drafted players: D Christian Krygier (NYI, 7^th round, 2018), D Cole Krygier (Fla, 7^th round, 2018), C Mitchell Mattson (Cgy, 5^th round, 2016), C Josh Nodler (Cgy, 5^th round, 2019)

Minnesota Golden Gophers

When Big Ten Hockey got going, the Golden Gophers were the clear team to beat, winning the regular season title for the first four seasons of the conference’s existence, before a precipitous fall from grace in 2017-18, when they found themselves in the unfamiliar and uncomfortable position of fifth in a seven team conference. Minnesota rebounded to third last year, but it is now clear that their days of homogeneous rule of the roost are over. Hockey in Minnesota still takes on religious fervor and the university team is still an institution, usually getting the pick of local stars, which they have supplemented with the occasional import from another state or nation. But really, this team is, per usual, mostly homegrown, with only eight of 27 roster players with a listed birthplace from out of state.

The top three scorers from last season are all gone, as well as some key blueliners, but the depth of talent in Minneapolis will make the team a threat once again. Speedster Sammy Walker between gifted wingers Blake McLaughlin and Sampo Ranta, all of whom are entering their sophomore seasons, are primed to grow into high end collegiate threats on their way to pro careers. Versatile forward Brannon McMannus took that step forward last year, and an additional step forward on his part could have him firmly in the cross hairs of NHL scouts. Incoming freshmen Ben Meyers, Bryce Brodzinski (the reining Minnesota Mr. Hockey), and Jack Perbix all have a history of offensive production and could challenge for top six roles from the get-go.

The blueline is similarly pro aspiring, with six drafted defenders among them. Tyler Nanne may be the grizzled veteran who will be relied upon to quarterback the power play, but freshmen Ryan Johnson and Jackson LaCombe could both be stars in short order. Both primary goalies from last year are gone, but the two primary incoming tenders are both NHL draft picks in Jack LaFontaine, who previously spent two years at Michigan, and was fantastic in the BCHL last year, and Jared Moe, who was steady, if unspectacular over two seasons with Waterloo of the USHL. If the Golden Gophers can harness the collective talents of the players to play as a cohesive unit under decorated head coach Bob Motzko, they could credibly challenge for the top of the conference once again.

Drafted players: G Jack LaFontaine (Car, 3^rd round, 2016), G Jared Moe (Wpg, 6^th round, 2018), D Ben Brinkman, (Dal, 6^th round, 2019), D Ryan Johnson (Buf, 1^st round, 2019), D Jackson LaCombe (Ana, 2^nd round, 2019), D Tyler Nanne (NYR, 5^th round, 2014), D Robbie Stucker (Clb, 7^th round, 2017), D Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB, 5^th round, 2015), RW Bryce Brodzinski (Phi, 7^th round, 2019), LW Blake McLaughlin (Ana, 3^rd round, 2018), RW Jack Perbix (Ana, 4^th round, 2018), LW Sampo Ranta (Col, 3^rd round, 2018), C Scott Reedy (SJ, 4^th round, 2017), C Samuel Walker (TB, 7^th round, 2017)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Another program with exceptional coaching, Jeff Jackson enters his 15^th year behind the bench at South Bend, and his 21^st season altogether as a head coach at the NCAA level. The Fighting Irish have a deep veteran roster, augmented by a number of talented recruits. While the squad may not be at the level as the ones which went to the Frozen Four in back to back years, they still will be competitive on a nightly basis and could compete for supremacy in the Big Ten.

The main challenge for the team will be overcoming the graduation of Bobby Nardella, and the early exit of Andrew Peeke, both players going on to NHL contracts. Thankfully, the defensive core still has more than their fair share of pro prospects, with senior Tory Dello hoping a big deal gets him a similar free agent contract as it did for former teammate Nardella. He is joined by four drafted players, with New Jersey pick Matthew Hellickson the likely quarterback. I also expect to see a big jump forward from Nashville pick Spencer Stastney. The blueline will be protecting the net of Cole Morris, whose .930 save percentage last season was actually a letdown after an incredible .944 mark, and accompanying Mike Richter Award, in 2017-18.

Pushing the pace on offense will be a squad that does not look to have one or two central figures, but figures to attack in waves. Captain Cal Burke, a senior, will be looking to earn an NHL contract offer after being among the team’s offensive leaders as a junior. Colorado draft pick Cam Morrison has disappointed since a strong freshman campaign, and he will have ample motivation to finish his collegiate career with a bang. Sophomore Alex Steeves will also want to step forward to put his name back in the crosshairs of NHL scouts, after being overlooked at the draft despite a very strong draft year in the USHL. Trevor Janicke is the most highly touted new recruit, but I wouldn’t sleep on Max Ellis also doing well in his rookie collegiate season.

Drafted players: D Nate Clurman (Col, 6^th round, 2016), D Matthew Hellickson (NJ, 7^th round, 2017), D Nick Leivermann, (Col, 7^th round, 2017), D Spencer Stastney (Nas, 5^th round,, 2018), C Trevor Janicke (Ana, 5^th round, 2019), LW Cam Morrison (Col, 2^nd round, 2016), C Jacob Pivonka (NYI, 4^th round, 2018).

The Ohio State Buckeyes

On the one hand, all of the schools in the Big Ten (with the possible exception of Minnesota) are more known for the exploits on the gridiron than on the ice sheet. That is especially true with THE Ohio State. Between appearances in the Frozen Four in 1997-98 and their triumphant return in 2017-18, the Buckeyes only even reached the year end tournament six times over 20 years, never getting past the first round. In that same time span, the Buckeyes’ football time won 10 Big Ten titles, and two national championships. Now they enter the 2019-20 season coming off three consecutive Tournament appearances, only the second time in school history they have achieved such a run of success. It says here, they could set a new record this year with a fourth consecutive showing, even though their roster has less drafted talent than most others.

With two of the top three scorers last season gone, the offensive drive will be centered on Hobey Baker candidate Tanner Laczynski, whose skills and overall game have improved year over year through three years in Columbus. His skating has gotten more fluid and he has always been an exquisite puck handler and playmaker. He should be ably assisted by Carson Meyer, who acclimatized quickly after transferring from Miami to OSU. I also expect Swedish center Gustaf Westlund to take a big step forward in his sophomore season. As far as newcomers to the squad, look out for Michael Gildon, the only regular skater from last season’s elite USNTDP squad who wasn’t drafted, but capably demonstrated a knack for playing with top end talent and creating space for them. He could grow into a third wheel role on a top six line.

Forwards aside, OSU’s chances for success will once again lie squarely with the defensive half of the team. That include the blueline squad’s ability to keep their own end clean while kick-starting the counterattack with regularity. Matt Miller is the most common defenseman to remain active in the offensive zone, but I expect to see more contributions on the scoresheet from Wyatt Ege this year. Newcomer Layton Ahac could also help give the transition game more of a push. Behind that deep blueline squats one of the more underappreciated netminders in the college game in Tommy Nappier. He has ideal pro size at 6-3”, 194 and took over a regular role as a sophomore last year with sparkling numbers including a 1.86 GAA and a .934 save percentage. A follow up performance that even approaches last year’s will make OSU a tough out no matter how much their offense produces.

Drafted Players: D Layton Ahac (Vgk, 3^rd round, 2019), D Ryan O’Connell (Tor, 7^th round, 2017), LW Miguel Fidler (Fla, 5^th round, 2014), C Tanner Laczynski (Phi, 6^th round, 2016), RW Carson Meyer (Clb, 6^th round, 2017).

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State’s rise to a legitimately strong hockey school in only seven years as an NCAA accredited program has been nothing short of spectacular. They were close to a .500 team in their debut in 2012-13 and then fell hard in their follow up, finishing with a record of 8-26-2. In the five years since, their cumulative record has been 104-70-17, which included two seasons which finished I the NCAA tournament. On the strength of those finishes, the Nittany Lions have been able to recruit a number of high-end players to further the school’s on-ice exploits, while paving the way for subsequent NCAA entry Arizona State to reach the tournament in a similarly quick period of time. Their quick ascension was also said to be a driving factor in the push for the University of Illinois to seek NCAA status for their Ice Hockey team.

Penn State is well positioned for a strong eighth season, with eight of their top ten-point getters from 2018-19 returning, as well as their starting netminder. And while he wasn’t in their top ten in points last season, Aarne Talvitie would easily have made the cut were he not injured during the 2019 WJC as he had been one of Finland’s best players prior to the injury. Talvitie is also returning. Augmenting the likes of veterans Brandon Biro, Evan Barrett, Liam Fowlkes, and Alex Limoges up front, the Nittany Lions are bringing in a few solid recruits from the USHL in Connor MacEachern and Connor McMenamin, as well as Kevin Wall from the BCHL. If Denis Smirnov can rebound and produce like he did as a freshman, the attack will be exceptionally difficult to contain.

The blueline is similarly deep, led by veterans Cole Hults, Kris Myllari, and Paul DeNaples. Joining them this year are a pair of BCHL recruits in Kenny Johnson (brother of Pittsburgh Penguin, Jack) and Mason Snell, as well as a high-profile transfer from fellow Big Ten program Minnesota in Clayton Phillips. The Penguins draft pick was granted a transfer exemption and will not need to sit out for a season before suiting up, as would almost always be the case with a transferring junior.

Drafted Players: D Cole Hults (LA, 5^th round, 2017), D Clayton Phillips (Pit, 3^rd round, 2017), C Evan Barratt (Chi, 3^rd round, 2017), C Nikita Pavlychev (Pit, 7^th round, 2015), RW Denis Smirnov (Col, 6^th round, 2017), C Aarne Talvitie (NJ, 6^th round, 2017), RW Kevin Wall (Car, 6^th round, 2019)

Wisconsin Badgers

If we look at talent in a vacuum, Wisconsin may be not only the best team in the Big Ten, but in the discussion for the best team in the nation. This is nothing new, and yet the Badgers have not made it to the NCAA tournament since 2013-14, and have only had a record above .500 once in the five subsequent seasons. The lack of team-wide success has been buffluding to the six time nation champions, but head coach Tony Granato has recruited very well and the program continues to add top end players to its ranks on an annual basis, with the most recent freshman class considered by many to be the finest in NCAA hockey. Those players, some of whom we will discuss momentarily, supplement a core which lost only one of its top ten scorers. Despite their previous inconsistency, there was a lot of talent among that holdover bunch as well.

Very little has changed between the goaltending or the defensive crew from last year. Every goalie who appeared in a game is back, and incumbent starter Daniel Lebedeff will be expected to play more steady, reliable brand of hockey between the pipes as the presumptive starter once again. The only regular blueliner to depart was team captain Peter Tischke, who graduated. The five returnees are all NHL drafted and K’Andre Miller still has the look of a future star at the highest levels. If he can stay healthy and in line with team rules, that ascent can begin now. Wyatt Kalynuk and Josh Ess are both smart puck movers, while Tyler Inamoto and Ty Emberson are both more renowned for strong play in their own ends.

With all due respect to holdover forwards like Sean Dhooghe and Linus Weissbach, all eyes this year will be on Wisconsin’s A-rated recruits among the forwards. They include a pair of top half of the first round NHL draft picks from the USNTDP in Alex Turcotte (5^th overall) and Cole Caufield (15^th overall), in addition to their teammate with the USNTDP Owen Lindmark an another mid-round pick in Ryder Donovan. There are also some who think that the true top recruit to Madison is 2020 draft eligible forward Dylan Holloway, who spent last year tearing up the AJHL, and has already represented Canada at last year’s WU18 tournament and this past Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Holloway could be a lottery pick this year if he proves able to produce at the NCAA level as a true freshman. It can be very difficult for so many top talents to gel as a team, but if they can manage it, the Badgers can push for a seventh title. It might be now or never as some of their more prominent drafted players could be turning pro as soon as the 2019-20 comes to a close.

Drafted Players: D Ty Emberson (Ari, 3^rd round, 2018), D Joshua Ess (Chi, 7^th round, 2017), D Tyler Inamoto (Fla, 5^th round, 2017), D Wyatt Kalynuk (Phi, 7^th round, 2017), D K’Andre Miller (NYR, 1^st round, 2018), RW Cole Caufield (Mtl, 1^st round, 2019), C Ryder Donovan (Vgk, 4^th round, 2019), C/LW Jack Gorniak (Mtl, 4^th round, 2018), C Owen Lindmark (Fla, 5^th round, 2019), C Alex Turcotte (LA, 1^st round, 2019), LW Linus Weissbach (Buf, 7^th round, 2017), LW Max Zimmer (Car, 4^th round, 2016).

Big Ten Top Draft Eligible Players

Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin
Michael Gildon, LW, Ohio State

Holloway is the only first-time draft prospect of note in the conference, and likely the first collegiate drafted in 2020. I think Gildon should have been selected last season and a solid freshman campaign for the Buckeyes could see him selected in his go-round.

Big Ten Top Free Agents

Brandon Biro, Penn State
Tommy Nappier, Ohio State
Mitchell Lewandowski, Michigan State
Patrick Khodorenko, Michigan State
Cale Morris, Notre Dame

The Big Ten is the conference to be for NCAA free agents this year and I would add names like Alex Limoges (Penn State), Nate Sucese (Penn State), and Brannon McManus (Minnesota) as players to watch.

USHL 2019 Clark Cup Playoff Preview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 19 Apr 2019 11:35:04 +0000

Unlike the postseason series’ we review throughout the CHL and the NCAA, the USHL postseason begins with a wildcard round, as the teams ranked third through sixth in each conference play best of three series (3 vs 6, 4 vs 5) with all games located in the home rink of the higher seeded team.

As the top two teams in each conference all get to hang out at home, watching the NHL playoffs, while the preliminary round goes on, we too, hung out at home and watched the NHL playoffs for a few days. How about those Blue Jackets and Islanders, eh?

Meanwhile, in the USHL’s Eastern Conference, the Dubuque Fighting Saints upset the third seed Youngstown Phantoms in two games and the USNTDP U17 squad (the U18 are preparing for the WU18 tournament in Sweden) were knocked out in two games by the Cedar Rapids Rough Riders. Dubuque will move on to play the top seeded team in the East in the Muskegon Lumberjacks. Cedar Rapids will play against the 2^nd seeded Chicago Steel.

In the Western Conference, the Des Moines Buccaneers knocked off the defending champion Fargo Force in a two game set while the Sioux Falls Stampede eliminated the Sioux City Musketeers in three plus games played over two nights, as the second game went to an incredible fourth overtime. The Buccaneers will play the Tri-City Storm in the first round proper and the Stampede will face off against the Waterloo Black Hawks.

All series are best of five’s played in a 2-2-1 format, with the higher ranking team getting the first two games and game fives, should they occur. Let’s take a look at how the final eight teams standing match up and project how the next few weeks will play out as we prepare to crown a Clark Cup champion.

Eastern Conference

Egor Afanasyev, Muskegon Lumberjacks. Photo Hickling Images.

Muskegon Lumberjacks (41-17-3-1) vs 6. Dubuque Fighting Saints (28-26-4-4)

Looking for a moment past the stark contrast in the team’s respective records, Muskegon scored 55 goals more than they had allowed during the regular season, while Dubuque was outscored by 12 goals against all opponents. Then again, in the two teams’ head-to-head matchups this season, the results were split over four games, while each game was decided by a single goal. Then again, three of the four matchups took place in early December, and their most recent battle took place on March 8, won by Dubuque. Outside of one game, the shot counter was reasonably even as well between the two.

Despite the disparities in their regular season work, there are paths to an upset for Dubuque. Hey – if the Columbus Blue Jackets could sweep the Tampa Bay Lightning, who tied an NHL record with regular season wins this year, there is no reason why the Fighting Saints cannot take down the Lumberjacks.

A few reasons why they could:

Special Teams. Dubuque does not take too many penalties, which is good because they are pretty bad at killing penalties (73.9%, worst in the USHL by two full percentage points). Muskegon killed off 84.3% of shorthanded situations, best in the conference, and second only to Fargo in the league. On the other hand, they are penalized more often and Dubuque has the deadlier power play (21.9 vs 17.3%).

Mattias Maccelli makes the Dubuque power play run, and his 22 PP assists were second league wide. He has a large range of players heh can create for on the man advantage, and Logan Pietila, Willie Knierim, and James Sanchez each scored at least five times on the man advantage during the regular season.

So this isn’t a clear advantage for Dubuque, but if they play clean and Muskegon does not, this should play in the Fighting Saints’ favor.

Player availability – All of Dubuque’s key players are healthy enough to play and playing to the best of their abilities, as could be seen in their upset of Youngstown in the wildcard round. Even netminder Matthew Thiessen, a Vancouver draft pick, who has struggled for much of his first USH campaign, ended the season strong, and allowed only three goals against in the Youngstown series.

We cannot say the same about Musekgon. Mikkel Hakkarainen, a Chicago draft pick, has not played since March 29 and has only two goals to his credit (no assists) since February 22. 17 year old Danil Gushchin, the team’s sixth leading scorer, will not be available for the postseason as he will be playing for Russia at the WU18 tournament. Finally, their starting netminder Brandon Bussi has not played in any of Muskegon’s last three regular season games. While injury information is scarce, even if healthy, it is fair to question his readiness having not played in two weeks.

A few reasons why Muskegon might just win anyway:

They have better offense
They have a more structured defense
They have more consistent goaltending. Even if Bussi (2.44 GAA, 0.915 SV%) is unavailable, backup Ryan McInchak’s (2.89 GAA, 0.904 SV%) seasonal numbers were better than those of Dubuque’s Thiessen (3.01 GAA, 0.889 SV%)
Egor Afanasyev is a high-end NHL prospect. We will discuss him at more length in a moment, but it will suffice to note that at 6-3”, 203, he is a handful for any defense.
Alex Yakovenko was the second leading scorer among defensemen in the league. He plays a relatively quiet game, but moves the puck very well

Players to watch:

Muskegon – LW/C Egor Afanasyev; Not far from a first-round ranking, he has an NHL shot and premium size on the wing. His start up speed can be a little slushy, but he has the quick strike ability to turn a game on its head in a single shift.

Dubuque – LW Matias Maccelli; A different type of pro prospect than Afanasyev. Smaller, an average at best scorer, he has high end vision and offensive IQ. Can strike in a number of ways and finished third in the league in points in the regular season. I actually believe that power forward Ryder Donovan is the better pro/draft prospect, but as a late season addition from the prep ranks, he has not been afforded a regular shift.

Prediction: Muskegon holds on to win in five

Robert Mastrosimone. Photo by Brandon Anderson.

Chicago Steel (37-1-4-0) vs 4. Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (36-21-3-2)

Here we have a series pitting the Conference’s stingiest team against the top scoring unit outside of the U18 inflated numbers of the USNTDP. The Chicago Steel scored an impressive 243 goals this season, although surrendered 207. The Cedar Rapids RoughRiders only scored 188 times, but they only allowed 161.

The RoughRiders are hot now, though, having scored 13 times over two games to knock out the U17s in the Wild Card round. Whereas the other Eastern Conference series provides reasons to believe that an upset might be possible, I see less reason to suspect Cedar Rapids can take down Chicago in their best of five.

If the series becomes a battle of special teams, the Steel have a fairly sizable edge. While Cedar Rapids has a better PK, neither team is very good when shorthanded. On the power play, Chicago had the best unit in the East at 24.6% while Cedar Rapids was nearly seven percentage points worse at 17.7%. In the five games the teams played head to head this year, Chicago won three, although were shut out in their two losses, including their only matchup since the calendar turned to 2019. This special teams edge is extended by the fact that Chicago plays a very disciplined team game and had the fewest penalty minutes (by far) of any team in the USHL, while Cedar Rapids accrued 366 minutes in the sin bin as a team.

What it comes down to is offensive depth. While the Steel have ten players who put up at least 30 points during the season, Cedar Rapids had only five. Another of looking at this is that the tenth leading scorer on Cedar Rapids had only 17 points, a total that would have placed him 17^th with Chicago.

The main chance for an upset here rests between the pipes. The RoughRiders’ Blake Pietila is too small to be of interest to NHL scouts (5-11“, 167), but has been a very good goalie at the USHL level and should have a solid chance to be a starter at the NCAA level with Michigan Tech. His regular season numbers were fantastic (2.30 GAA, 0.912 SV%) and he pitched five shutouts, including both blankings of the Steel. Whichever way Chicago turns in net, they have struggled between the pipes this year. Justin Robbins (son of the team owner) had the most starts on the season and can make the occasional highlight reel, athletic stop, but generally gives up a few stinkers per game. His full season numbers (3.22 GAA, 0.874 SV%) were among the worst among all qualified netminders in the league. Backup Reilly Herbst (3.01 GAA, 0.881 SV%) was not much better in half the playing time.

Players to watch:

Cedar Rapids: C Jason Polin; the Western Michigan commit was the leading goal scorer on the RoughRiders, with a gentle push provided by a five goal outburst in the season’s penultimate game against Fargo. He has stayed hot through the wild card round, scoring a hat trick in game one and twice more in the clincher. If momentum means anything, watch out.

Chicago: LW Robert Mastrosimone; ted for fourth league-wide in goals scored, Mastrosimone has a chance to be selected in the first round in June and a strong playoff performance would greatly help his case. A high-energy, high-IQ player, he can dictate the pace of play at his best yet still impact the game on his off-nights.

Prediction: Chicago wins in four, but Cedar Rapids shuts the Steel out in their sole victory.

Western Conference

Ronnie Attard, Tri-City Storm. Photo by Hickling Images.

Tri-City Storm (45-12-3-2) vs 4. Des Moines Buccaneers (35-22-1-4)

Des Moines allowed the sixth fewest goals during the regular season, having surrendered 177. If the USHL had a Jennings Trophy, Tri-City would have won it running away. Their 144 goals surrendered on the season was 17 fewer than the runners up. Similarly, the Storm had the best PK in the circuit, having killed 87.3% of shorthanded situations. Considering Des Moines’ bottom five power play unit, it would not surprise at all if the Buccaneers fail to score with the man advantage during this series.

Both teams ended their respective seasons well, each winning six of their final ten in the regular season and Des Moines made quick work of Fargo in the wild card round, winning by scores of 7-3 and 3-2. Further to the Buccaneers credit, they defeated Tri-City 4-3 on April 12, giving them the season series, winning four of the two teams’ seven matches.

Although Tri-City’s offense was as far better than that of Des Moines as was their defense, if their top end netminders perform in the post-season as they did during the regular season, the Buccaneers will be stifled. Des Moines actually has one of the better USHL netminders in Anaheim draft pick Roman Durny, who pitched six shutouts on the season and is consistently reliable with a seventh ranked 2.61 GAA. On the other hand, both of Tri-City’s netminders, the draft eligible Isaiah Saville and Jake Barczewski, had lower GAAs (2.56 and a league-leading 1.90, respectively). While the two Storm netminders split the minutes fairly evenly, Saville likely would have taken on a more traditional starter’s workload were it not for injury which kept him in the shelf from mid-January through mid-February and again during the first two weeks of April, although he played the team’s final regular season game, stopping 20 of 21 shots against Sioux City.

Another factor which tilts this series in Tri-City’s favor is their relentlessly physical style of play. This is not to say that the Storm are a team full of goons, or that they spend an inordinate amount of time in the box. On average, both teams in this matchup are similar in stature. Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of time spent shorthanded. But Tri-City’s players are more likely to finish their checks and instigate out of sight of the referees.

Another point of differentiation – more in terms of style than an edge either way – is where the offense comes from on both sides. Des Moines has a traditional offense in the sense the bulk of the scoring comes from the forwards, such as 30 goal man Matt Brown, or late-season addition Jackson Perbix, an Anaheim pick. Their leading scorer among defensemen was Scooter Brickey, with 29 points. While Tri-City also has some skilled forwards on the roster, their leading scorer was blueliner Ronnie Attard, who scored an incredible 30 goals. There is also Zac Jones, a power play specialist of sorts, with exactly half of his 52 points coming with the man advantage. Late season addition Mike Koster, transplanted from the Minnesota high school scene, can also provide punch to the attack. Among the Storm forwards, mid-season additions Shane Pinto and Brendan Furry were both above the point per game mark since relocating to Kearney, Nebraska.

Players to watch:

Tri-City: Ronnie Attard, D; Somehow, a blueliner with great size, great skating, and a right-handed howitzer from the point, was passed over in two successive drafts. Then again, before his 64 point outburst this year, he had seasons of 15 and five points in his previous two. He could be taken as high as the third round in June.

Des Moines: Matt Brown, LW; Another player third year draft eligible prospect, Brown took of in his first full year in the USHL, adapting seamlessly in matching his point-per-game production from the previous year in the NAHL. He is undersized and not the greatest skater, but is seemingly involved in every dangerous rush the Buccaneers manage.

Prediction: Tri-City wins in four.

Matej Blumel, Sioux Falls Stampede. Photo by Hickling Images.

Waterloo Black Hawks (39-16-5-2) vs 3. Sioux Falls Stampede (39-16-5-2)

The records listed above are no typos. Waterloo and Sioux Falls each finished with identical records this season. Due to two additional regulation/overtime wins, Waterloo had the tiebreaker advantage and advanced straight to the full playoffs, while the Stampede had to face off against Sioux City, a series which included a quadruple overtime clincher, as detailed up above.

If we begin to dig deeper, we can see even more similarities between the two clubs. Offensively, Sioux Falls outscored Waterloo 234-232. Over a 62 game season, that is essentially even. Waterloo’s defensive edge is slightly more telling, as they surrendered 17 fewer goals on the season. Sioux Falls has a mild edge at 5-on-5 play, while Waterloo has been more efficient on both special teams’ units. The Black Hawks’ 26.1% power play conversion rate was tops in the USHL. Mitigating their edge on the PK (82.0 – 81.4%) is the fact that Waterloo, incidentally the heaviest team (on average) in the league, was also the most penalized team in the league, and had 221 more penalty minutes compiled on the season than their opponents in this series. So Sioux Falls power play could score more often than that of Waterloo while not being as efficient.

For those who believe in the power of experience, Waterloo has a clear edge there, as they have a roster with a relative ton of USHL experience, while Sioux Falls takes the ice with one of the greener team in the league.

On the other hand, Sioux Falls has an edge due to better scoring depth. Waterloo has a few lights-out players, including the forward trio of Emil Ohrvall, Matej Blumel and Vladislav Firstov, the latter two of which should hear their names called in Vancouver this June. They only had one other player top 40 points on the season, and only eight players on the team reached the 30 point mark. The Stampede can come at their opponents in waves, though, and finished the year with eight players with over 40 points and 12 had at least 30 points.

Neither team is especially strong in net, notwithstanding Jaxson Stauber’s play in the wild card round, with three goals allowed in 183 minutes. If Winnipeg draft pick Jared Moe, who missed over two months of action late in the year is back and in good health (he played in three games since March 29), the Black Hawks will have an edge between the pipes, albeit not a huge one. Mid-season trade addition Evan Fear would also probably give Waterloo a slight edge in the crease.

The general subpar netminding on both sides could be seen through the teams’ matches during the regular season. Sioux Falls won four of their six games, and the games averaged over eight goals combined from both teams per game.

Players to Watch

Waterloo: Matej Blumel, RW; Although Emil Ohrvall was Waterloo’s leading scorer, and Vladislav Firstov has the greater draft projections (for the moment), Blumel is the one to watch for two reasons. First off, he has more natural skill than Ohrvall and plays less of a perimeter game than Firstov. Secondly, he ended the year in a lengthy slump, getting points on the board in only three of the final eight games, and no goals in that time. If he can shake out of his malaise, Waterloo’s chances will go way up.

Sioux Falls: Max Crozier, D; Draft hounds talk more about blueline mate Ryan Johnson. Forwards Anthony Romano, Ethan Phillips, and Andre Lee also often receive more praise. But Crozier has game breaking skills from the point. He is a beautiful skater, has fine offensive IQ and is a skilled puck mover.

Prediction: Sioux Falls in five.

Projecting the rest of the USHL playoffs (all series are best of fives)

Eastern Conference Final: Chicago over Muskegon in five
Western Conference Final: Tri-City over Sioux Falls in four
Final: Tri-City over Chicago in five

USHL Fall Classic Review and Season Preview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 05 Oct 2018 12:19:06 +0000

Last weekend, with my wife’s blessing, I packed a small suitcase and drove close to eight hours from our home outside of Chicago to Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania, to watch some hockey in the arena generally used by the Pittsburgh Penguins as a practice facility.

Of course, I didn’t make the 15 hour-plus round-trip to watch Sidney Crosby do a bag skate. Instead, I made the journey to watch the opening of the 2018-19 USHL season. The league, which stretches from Youngstown, Ohio in the East to Kearney, Nebraska in the west, had all gathered in the Pittsburgh suburb to play a series of games, such that each club in the circuit would play two regular season contests between Thursday and Sunday.

I only arrived on Friday evening, but was able to watch seven and a half games, seeing at least one full game from 12 of the 17 teams in the league. 12 of 18 if you consider the USNTDP U17 and USNTDP U18 squads as different teams, which the league standings do not. Besides, the U17s weren’t there.

When I do the math and note that I drove around two hours per game, the investment was pretty good. Factor in the ability to purchase two hard drinks after the games for a grand total of $8 (US), and let’s just say I’d do it again.

The only downsides to the weekend were an arena announcer who struggled, mightily in some cases, to pronounce player names, and sightlines that were not ideal, with netting that extends to the ceiling throughout the side of the ice on which there were stands.

While these were regular season games, as is the case with any league, a team’s first few games of any campaign are bound to be on the sloppy side. Players are still getting accustomed to their line mates. Not everyone can ramp out their focus and intensity level at the same pace. Also, while the Youngstown Phantoms were pretty close to home, around 50 minutes’ drive west of Cranberry Township up the I-76, none of the teams were playing home games.

In an event like this, where all games are regular season games, and there is no tournament feel, there are no winners and losers, although Team USA, Muskegon, Des Moines and Tri-City each won both of their games, while Youngstown, Madison, and Omaha returned home without any points in the standings.

Instead, in a scout-heavy affair, a large number of undrafted players, mostly those entering their first year of eligibility but also a few second and third timers, put out notice that they all deserve to be watched very closely by NHL scouts and people like me over the next six months or so. For a few lesser prospects, the event helped more than a few receive offers for NCAA scholarships.

For the sake of transparency, I will start the season preview portion of this article with a few words about the teams that I have not yet watched more than half a game of hockey.

The defending champion Fargo Force split the weekend, with a win and a loss. Four of their top five scorers from last season have moved on to college, but there are some players of note who have begun to audition for the 2019 draft. Michael Mancinelli, was a smaller, skilled forward who impressed me in viewings last year. A few others who have gained some notice include Swiss-American defender Cedric Fiedler, and forwards Kyle Bettens, Aaron Huglen, and Josh Nodler. The latter spent some time last year with the U17 team, but will spend this year with the Force. He also drew the most positive feedback when I discussed the team with others who were able to see them.

The Des Moines Buccaneers scored 15 goals in their 2 games, including 10 in a game that I saw a portion of against Chicago. Both of the team’s goalies have been drafted by NHL clubs and Roman Durny (Anaheim) was impressive, although Jake Kucharski (Carolina) was not. There are also a pair of affiliated players on the blueline with Michael Kesselring (Edmonton) and Arvid Henrikson (Montreal) both getting their first tastes of the league. Both are physically imposing players who move well for their size. Their most impressive player was probably 18 year old TJ Walsh, who will always be small, but is moving better than he did in previous viewings. Draft eligible to watch include blueliner Kirby Proctor, who showed good vision, and forwards Brady Meyer and Kaden Bohlsen. All three have plus size.

The Madison Capitals lack drafted players, first time draft eligible of note, and points in the standings. When I asked around, the only player who was even mentioned was defender Christian Berger, whose three older bothers all play, or have played, at the NCAA level.

The Central Illinois Flying Aces have a drafted goaltender in Mitchell Gibson (Washington) who had a rough first game at this level. After a few years as an also-ran, they look like a team worth watching this year. Winger Trevor Janicke played with the USNTDP last year, but as a late 2000 birthdate, he has aged out of the program without yet being eligible for the draft. Lynden Breen is another forward of note with the Aces. Brehdan Engum (how is this guy not playing in the WHL?) is in his second year of draft eligibility, but turned some heads after spending most of his draft season playing Minnesota high school hockey.

The Chicago Steel always draft well and while defender Casey Staum was once drafted by Montreal, the fact that he has yet to start a collegiate career means that his draft rights have expired. The team has a few sons-of and brothers-of on the roster, including draft-eligible forward Jake Schmaltz, brother of Nick and Jordan, and Matthew Barnaby, son of…also Matthew Barnaby. They also have a really interesting 2021 draft eligible in Owen Power, a preternaturally large defenseman who has game. But when scouts go to see the Steel this year, they will be going to watch Robert Mastrosimone, who is small, but plays with some snarl and thinks the game a step or two ahead of most of his peers. He may be the top prospect in the league who is not in the USNTDP.

The Cedar Rapids RoughRiders seem to have emerged from a few rough years in the wilderness, and their current roster is led by Winnipeg draft pick Nathan Smith. You may have noted that we were not very high on Smith in our draft previews and reviews last year. He has promising puck skills, but I am still not convinced that his feet work well enough, which may not be surprising considering he is still somewhat new to ice hockey, having grown up as a roller hockey player. He is also penalty prone. Of note for the 2019 draft, defender William Francis needs to work on his pivots, but has a big point shot. I am more interested in winger Grant Silianoff, who has patience with the puck and is very comfortable playing in the dirty areas despite his small frame. He could be a big point producer for the Rough Riders.

Moving on to the Lincoln Stars, we have a team with more than a little bit of NHL representation with Chicago picks Josiah Slavin and Wouter Peeters, as well as Carolina pick Ville Rasanen patrolling the blueline. Slavin is a hard working winger who has quick hands but still has to answer questions about his skill level. Peeters has a big frame in the crease, covers his posts well, but made a few questionable decisions. More regular time in net will surely help define his future prospects. Rasanen is tall and thin and never produced much in the Finnish junior ranks. He is still a bit of a wild card. The team also has some draft eligible players of note in defenders Declan Carlile and Jordan Power and forwards Josh Lopina and Shane Pinto. Lopina showed me a promising energy game, replete with strength and size and a shot with potential. Power impressed me most from this roster. He is a very good skater, enabling him to prowl with confidence. He also has a decent defensive game, standing up opponents who try to enter his zone on his side of the ice. This is a plyer I want to see more of.

Anaheim pick Jackson Perbix is the most skilled player on the Green Bay Gamblers roster. A very good skater who shows 200-foot commitment and has some skill, he is worth a follow. Looking to the future, there are a pair of late 2000s on the blueline in Christopher Giroday and Ethan Frisch. Both played with an offensive bent before joining the USHL, while the latter showed a gritty side that will serve him well as he attempts to move up the ranks. There is another smaller, skilled forward to note in Nicholas Zabaneh, himself a USHL rookie. He is the type of player who adds enough away from the puck, that he is still worth rostering even on his off days. For a sleeper, I will keep an eye on netminder Evan Fear, a 1999 to be sure, but he was among the top netminders in the NAHL last year and looked very sharp in the game I saw of him.

The Dubuque Fighting Saints have an older, more experienced roster. There are a few players who have a couple of years of NCAA experience under their respective belts already but are taking a year to refresh, including Toronto draft pick JD Greenway. Jordan’s younger brother has great size and strength, can skate and has really good puck skills for a blueliner. His decision making is questionable. Also patrolling the Dubuque blueline is Rangers pick Simon Kjellberg. For as raw as Greenway is, Kjellberg makes him look refined. The American-born Swede is big and skates reasonable well, but lacks puck skills and can be ineffective in his own zone. As his North American career has only just begun, I am willing to withhold judgement for the moment. Netminder Matthew Thiessen (Vancouver) is also moving his development forward after being drafted last year out of the MJHL. He looked much better in his second game than in his first. He keeps his glove up, has decent athleticism and absolutely loves playing the puck up the ice. There is one first year eligible of note in winger Matias Maccelli. Although very small, he has nice hands, can create plays for his teammates, and has good edges. In short, a fun player to watch. One last player to follow this year on the Fighting Saints is second year eligible blueliner Jacob Semik. A smooth skater and puck mover, he plays a fearless yet quiet game, is a trusted penalty killer and can play in all situations. What he lacks in flash, he makes up for in smarts. I suspect that over the length of the season, this here is the team to beat.

The Sioux Falls Stampede have a few interesting draft eligible players to pay attention to this year. Defenseman Ryan Johnson is trying to follow in the footsteps of fellow Southern California product Jack St. Ivany, who went from the USHL to the NHL draft. Big, versatile forward Andre Lee started hot after being overlooked in his first draft eligible season as a Swedish junior. Rangy blueliner Anthony Follmer is a St. Louis area product who impressed with his reads and decision making. Winger Anthony Romano is one to watch closely as he has a great deal of skill, offensive instincts and skating as well as a decent amount of physicality. That said, the most impressive player on the Stampede for my money was Finnish import Jami Krannila. The Sioux Falls offense runs through him as his puck skills are high end. He lacks size and needs to get stronger but his game will take him places.

The Waterloo Black Hawks are always a contending team in the USHL. Netminder Jared Moe was drafted by Winnipeg last year and had an up and down weekend, showing good movements at his best, and a lack of focus at his worst. Czech winger Matej Blumel was better in international play than league play last year, and was thus passed over in the draft. If he brings more of the offense to the USHL, he could get back on the radar this time. Among first time eligibles, big Texan winger Ryan Drkulec is an effective 200-ft player. Center Austen Swankler has enough speed to be dangerous if the rest of his game catches up. Their most intriguing prospect looks like Russian forward Vladislav Firstov, who has a nice blend of offensive tools and needs only to gain strength to be a real impact player.

The Omaha Lancers had a rough weekend and they similarly lack any drafted prospects or high end 2001 borns. A few second or third year eligible will have to suffice. Winger Tyler Carpenter may be ready to take a step forward. He plays a two-way game, with patience and poise on the puck. Defender Travis Mitchell is big and mean and uses his stick well to break up opposing rushes. Finally, netminder Vinnie Purpura plays a composed goal. He skates well for a goalie and is not afraid to come way out to play a puck. He single-handedly kept his team in one of their games and is expected to play the bulk of the games this year for the Lancers before going to Boston University.

The Sioux City Musketeers have a pipeline for talented Finnish forwards. Two years ago, it was Eeli Tolvanen drawing the scouts. Last season, the man was Sampo Ranto. This year, his name is Marcus Kallionkieli. An opportunistic winger with size and strength, he has a good first few steps and pair of plus shots to his name. His name is a mouthful, but at some point soon we will need to learn to pronounce it. Undersized winger Bobby Brink received some attention last year from the national program thanks to his plus skating and work rate, but needs to show better puck control skills. Tommy Pasanen is a gigantic defender from Germany. He plays with a huge stick and is a beast in the corners but his play with the puck can be rough. His mobility is very impressive for his size and he can pass well enough despite hard hands. Finally, Flames pick Martin Pospisil has a very good shot if he can stay on the right side of the rulebook. It is a fine line between being heavy on the forecheck and heavy in the penalty box.

The Muskegon Lunberjacks, recently the proving grounds for one Andrei Svechnikov, have another 16 year Russian wunderkind to enjoy this year in Daniil Gushchin. He is incredibly talented, but who knows where he will be playing in his draft year. Although he did not play on the weekend, netminder Keegan Karki is one more year removed from the troubles that saw him leave the USNTDP and seemingly prevented him from being drafted last year. If he keeps his nose clean, he has a number of fans among USHL scouts. Hunter Skinner is a big-bodied stay-at-home blueliner who has never scored at any level. If he can show a modicum of ability to contribute to the offensive game, he might have a chance. As far as the 2019 draft goes, Gushchin’s countrymate Egor Afanasyev is the player to watch. He played a smaller role last year, but showcased some very impressive puck skills on the weekend, scoring four times, including one beauty off a spinorama.

After close to two seasons at Penn State, Buffalo draft pick Brett Murray needed a reset and returned to the USHL with the Youngtown Phantoms. He is a very big boy, with a decent first few steps, but subpar top speed. He should be an impact player at this level and once he returns to the collegiate game, but needs better wheels to have professional impact. Winger Jack Malone plays a solid two-way game, but has yet to show the dynamic skills that would cause an NHL team to sit up and take notice. The player I expect to see take a step forward is right winger Trevor Kuntar. He is skilled with the puck, able to create room for himself to shoot and has a quick release on a hard snap shot.

USNTDP Fall Classic, photo by Hickling Images.

Finally, we come to the USNTDP. I will not mention every 2019 eligible player on the roster, but suffice it to say that the majority of them will be in scouting crosshairs all season. Everyone knows of Jack Hughes. He has eyes in the back of his head and sticking out from his ears as well. He is a supremely talented playmaker and can dominate shifts on his own. He doesn’t shy away from the physical stuff either. He is the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall next June. I will leave the comparisons with other recent top picks for later in the season. Another first round talent on this squad is Matthew Boldy. A big winger with a big, big shot, he is in the mold of recent USNTDP graduates Kieffer Bellows and Oliver Wahlstrom. He can be more of factor in getting the puck back, but he is deadly in the offensive zone. Competing with Hughes in the fun quotient is tiny winger Cole Caufield. Think Alex DeBrincat with this one. He has amazing offensive instincts, speed and acceleration. Someone will overlook his size deficiencies and take him in the first round. Blueliner Cam York played with the U18s last year and the maturity in his puck moving game is apparent. His puck skills are also high end for a blueliner. Alex Vlasic has ideal size at 6-6”, and a good boomer from the point to boot. His skating is fine at his size as well. He needs to improve his overall decision making, but the tools are there. Spencer Knight is the early favorite to be the first netminder selected next summer. He is composed, does not overcommit and responds impressively to broken plays. He is comfortable playing the puck and keeps second chances to a minimum. Marshall Warren really opened my eyes before being removed from competition with a suspected concussion. He has excellent puck control, plays with great poise, and is superb at defending his line from entry attempts. The last player from this veritable All Star squad I want to call out is tiny blueliner Domenick Fensore. Despite looking up to Cole Caufield, he is exceptionally dynamic from the back end. He is exciting with the puck, waiting out the Omaha defense in the second game to score the winner with 10 seconds remaining. He can even play a physical game, raising his arms into a hit to blow the opponent up. Players his size – especially defenders – are few and far between. Scouts will be asking themselves all year if the size of his skillset is big enough to overlook the size of his skates.

2018 NHL Draft Review: Central Division

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 12 Jul 2018 14:37:30 +0000

The draft is over and 217 young players are newly affiliated with 31 different NHL organizations. Outside of three to six of those players, who could jump right into NHL lineups in the fall, we will not know whether the vast majority of those players are draft successes for two, three, four, or five years.

The lack of clear foresight aside, we should still be able to judge draft classes at least in terms of expected value. In some cases, we can look at strategy as well, although the way the board shakes out based on the picks that came before, we can rarely truly discern what a club was trying to do, but only what they were able to do.

I had hoped that we would be able to provide an average Overall Future Projection of the various draft classes, but there are a few picks from the high school ranks, the NAHL and a few European junior leagues for whom we lack enough information to give a full grade, so we will focus on where we had players ranked as we assess the draft haul of each team, as we run division-by-division through the NHL.

Here is the Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks
1 (8) Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 9th
1 (27) Nicolas Beaudin, D, Drummondville (QMJHL) - ranked 55th
3 (69) Jake Wise, C, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 62nd
3 (74) Niklas Nordgren, RW, HIFK U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga) - ranked 49th
4 (120) Philipp Kurashev, LW/C, Quebec (QMJHL) - ranked 80th
5 (139) Mikael Hakkarainen, C, Muskegon (USHL) - unranked
6 (162) Alexis Gravel, G, Halifax (QMJHL) - ranked 67th
7 (193) Josiah Slavin, LW, Lincoln (USHL) - unranked

With one difference of opinion, I have a lot of time for the Chicago Blackhawks draft class this year. That they selected six players in our top 100 (top 80, actually), reflects a lot of convergence in our respective scouting opinions. Doing it without a second rounder to play makes the feat even more impressive. With a rare top ten pick, the Hawks selected young Swedish dynamo Adam Boqvist eighth overall. While the pick raised the eyebrows a smidge, considering the availability of Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson, two better-rounded, potential top pairing blueliners, the gap between the three of them was minute and more down to preference than actual expected value. Boqvist is a little rawer than the other two, but his upside is truly immense.

Where the eyebrows truly shot up was when the Blackhawks selected Drummondville blueliner Nicolas Beaudin with the second first rounder. First, because between Boqvist and their first two picks in the 2017 draft (Henri Jokiharju and Ian Mitchell), they seemed to now have a pretty good core of young blueliners to plan around. Secondly, and more important, how could Beaudin be the first Voltigeur off the board with Joe Veleno still available? Beaudin has high end vision, and moves the puck fairly well, but his skating is a sore point, particularly his first few steps and his reverse. He can get up to a decent top speed, but as he so often falls behind, it is an absolute necessity. Third, as Beaudin is a marauding sort, who likes to engage deep in the offensive end, there must be the worry that his game is too similar in style to Boqvist’s.

As much as I did not like the second first rounder, I loved the Hawks’ two third rounders. Jake Wise is a very good skater who can perform some nice tricks with the puck yet can be trusted in all situations. Were it not for an early season injury that had him miss a good long stretch, he would have gone at least 30 picks higher. Five picks later, Chicago took another offensively gifted forward in Finnish winger Niklas Nordgren, who scored eight times in seven games at the WU18, but has historically been a stronger playmaker than finisher. He needs to add muscle mass and improve his explosiveness, but he can produce. Chicago took another offensively talented forward in the fifth, reminding us all that successful teams do not just grab bottom six types in the later rounds, but continue to draft for talent. Swiss import Philipp Kurashev has shown improvement year over year in his two seasons with Quebec in the Q. He reads the play well in both zones and has very soft hands. Although he lacks bulk, he is not a peripheral player.

They continued to hunt for point producers as the draft petered out, as seen with sixth rounder Mikael Hakkarainen who had 46 points in 36 games with Muskegon this year. Even after accounting for the fact that the Finnish USHL import was in his third year of draft eligibility, he has scored at every level in which he has played. He missed a chunk of the year to injury, but when he played, he was creating chances left and right. A few solid seasons with Providence, and he could be a real late round gem. Chicago was wise to snatch up a promising, if very raw, netminder in the sixth round in Alexis Gravel, both as his tools rate very highly, even if his results were sub-par in his draft year with Halifax, but also as the net is a weak spot organizationally for the Hawks and will have a chance to make an impact in time. If he can play more like he has in the postseason for the Mooseheads than he did in the regular season, more than a few teams will be kicking themselves for passing up on him for five full rounds. As for the seventh rounder, Josiah Slavin, the younger brother of Hurricanes’ blueliner Jaccob Slavin, the Blackhawks did finally take a low ceiling player who maxes out as a fourth liner, if he even gets there. He has good size and is a decent skater, but has never been a scorer all the way bac to Bantam hockey. Even though I don’t agree with every pick, the Blackhawks’ strategy of largely selecting players with aa history of offensive production and continuing to draft talent even in the middle and (most of the) later rounds, is a winning strategy.

OFP – 53.25

Colorado Avalanche
1 (16) Martin Kaut, RW, Dynamo Pardubice (Czech) - ranked 20th
3 (64) Justus Annunen, G, Karpat U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga) - ranked 98th
3 (78) Sampo Ranta, LW, Sioux City (USHL) - ranked 54th
4 (109) Tyler Weiss, LW/C, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 59th
5 (140) Brandon Saigeon, C, Hamilton (OHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
5 (146) Danila Zhuravlyov, D, Irbis Kazan (MHL) - ranked 131st
6 (171) Nikolai Kovalenko, RW, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL) - ranked 159th
7 (202) Shamil Shamakov, G, Sibirskie Snaipery Novosibirsk (MHL) - unranked

The Colorado Avalanche have never been the type of team to heavily scout the CHL, but to have only one pick from their seven come from the hotbed of Canadian junior hockey is a surprise even for them. Even when accounting for the fact that two additional picks were playing in the USHL, one of those was actually a Finnish import. In short, the Avalanche went the full anti-Don Cherry in their 2018 draft class, with five of seven picks coming from Europe. There was some speculation of whether their first round pick, Martin Kaut, would drop down draft boards after a disputed heart issue was discovered during medical testing at the draft combine. Thankfully, he rushed back to the Czech Republic and had the matter taken care of immediately, and received a clean bill of health before draft day. Kaut does everything at an above average level, and if the early successes of Martin Necas and Filip Chytil last year are any indication, the Czech Republic is back to being a hockey hotbed. Kaut is expected to move to the AHL next season.

In the three of the previous four drafts, the Avalanche selected a netminder from Europe, and they continued that trend with the second pick of the third round, taking Finnish WU18 hero Justus Annunen. Far from a flash in the pan, he was named the top goalie in the Finnish junior league and has the size every team covets in net, as well as above average athleticism. Half a round later, the Avs selected an early season sensation in the USHL, in Finnish import winger Sampo Ranta, who naturally elicited comparisons to former Sioux City sniper Eeli Tolvanen. Ranta is no Tolvanen, and is prone to a few bone-head reads, but he has a fine collection of offensive tools, projecting to top six potential across the board, and is going to a good program at Wisconsin starting next season.

Staying in the USHL, the first North American product Colorado drafted was North Carolina native Tyler Weiss from the USNTDP. The program often relegates talented players to a bottom six role because they are both not as good as the first line players, and they play high energy games. Both are true of Weiss. He plays with great energy and he is not as good as the top line trio of Jack Hughes, Oliver Wahlstrom, or Joel Farabee. Of course, that latter point is a very high bar for comparison. Weiss is very talented, and like a few previous USNTDP grads, I expect his offensive game to flourish in a more fluid role at Nebraska-Omaha. He is a great skater with shifty hands and great puck control. With his inherent grit, I think he is looked upon as a steal in short order.

Fifth rounder Brandon Saigeon was long written off as a disappointment in the OHL, as the former fourth overall OHL Draft pick took four seasons to really break out. Finally, in his third and final year of NHL draft eligibility, he took off with a strong Bulldogs team, at least reaching the point per game mark in the regular season, OHL playoffs, and Memorial Cup. He is eligible to go back to Hamilton for one more year, or join Kaut next year in the AHL. His future success hinges on his shot continuing to sneak past netminders.

After drafting their one and only CHL player, the Avalanche finished their draft with three picks from the Russian junior league. Defender Danila Zhuravlyov is a promising two way player with a good set of tools who needs to refine his game away from the puck. Winger Nikolai Kovalenko, is actually an Avalanche legacy pick, as his father Andrei played with the Nordiques and the Avalanche between 1992-96. Ironically enough, like Tyler Weiss, Kovalenko was born in Raleigh, North Carolina, although Kovalenko moved back to Russia as a youth. He has very high hockey intelligence and grades out very well for both skating and puck skills. If he gets more attention on the international stage, he will be looked at as a late round steal in short order. Finally, for their last selection, Colorado drafted the player with the best name in the draft, in Shamil Shmakov. In his second year of draft eligibility, the towering (6-6”) Russian netminder was a workhorse for his MHL team. He is athletic for his size and reads the play well. Between the Russians and the college bound players, the Avalanche’s 2018 draft class may take four or more years before it can be adequately judged. That said, with the talent selected, they should be optimistic.

OFP – 53.75

Dallas Stars
1 (13) Ty Dellandrea, C, Flint (OHL) - ranked 32nd
2 (44) Albin Eriksson, RW/LW, Skelleftea J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 121st
3 (75) Oskar Back, C/RW, Frolunda J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 75th
4 (100) Adam Mascherin, LW, Kitchener (OHL) - ranked 64th
4 (106) Curtis Douglas, C, Windsor (OHL) - ranked 95th
5 (137) Riley Damiani, C, Kitchener (OHL) - ranked 107th
6 (168) Dawson Barteaux, D, Red Deer (WHL) - ranked 206th
7 (199) Jermaine Loewen, RW/LW, Kamloops (WHL) - unranked

Like some teams, the Stars have geographical hot spots that they tend to return to again and again when to comes to drafting. They love the OHL, the WHL, Sweden and Finland. They have sometimes strayed from those areas, most notably for some first rounders from Russia (Valeri Nichushkin, and Denis Guryanov) and Minnesota prep (Riley Tufte) and the NCAA (Jake Oettinger), but the majority of their picks over the years come from the four areas listed above. And low and behold, they stayed true to form this year, drafting entirely from the OHL, WHL and Sweden. Hosting the draft, no matter who they selected would be bound to receive hearty applause and the fans did not disappoint in that regard.

Even though they went off the board with their first rounder, Ty Dellandrea, the Flint center has a few factors that suggest an upside just as high as those who had been ranked in that range of the draft class. He is very young for this draft class, he put up decent numbers despite playing for a tire fire of an OHL organization. He stepped up his game in the high profile events of the CHL Top Prospects Game and the WU18 tournament. He is a great skater with a very high hockey IQ, gets top marks for intangibles and has nice hands. I cannot truly fault Dallas for making this pick. I am less bullish on their second rounder, large Swedish winger Albin Eriksson. He has soft hands for his size and has certainly scored plenty in the SuperElit, but there are questions about his skating and his overall ability to process the game. He was held off the Swedish WU18 team as the national braintrust did not see a fit for him as a top six player, and did not think his game would translate to a bottom six role. I see a lot of risk-reward in this pick.

The Stars went right back to the SuperElit with their third rounder, for versatile forward Oskar Back. Back is not as big as Eriksson, but has more than enough size-wise. He is also a better skater, plays a more effective physical brand of hockey and showed the ability to play a variety of roles at the WU18. Dallas returned to the OHL for their two fourth round picks and their fifth rounder, bookending two picks from the Kitchener Rangers program (Adam Mascherin and Riley Damiani) with the gigantic Windsor center Curtis Douglas. Mascherin was this year’s only redraft player, as the former Florida second rounder never came to terms with the Panthers and took his chances with the league this year. He is a shorter, stockier player, lacking much explosion in his legs, but has been a prime sniper in the OHL for years (at least 35 goals in each of the last three seasons) and is ready for the AHL. His OHL teammate Damiani was selected by Dallas 37 picks later. Rather small, and not overly toolsy, he makes his hay thanks to high end hockey IQ. He has enough in the wheels department to be useful on the penalty kill as well, although he is not likely to ever be a big scorer.

In between those two picks, the Stars drafted the most physical specimen of the entire draft class in 6-8”, 247 pound behemoth center Curtis Douglas. Douglas is very strong, with unbeatable reach, but is not aggressive so much as he is imposing. He is a decent skater for his size and has reasonably fluid hands. Sixth rounder Dawson Barteaux was once a first round pick in the WHL Bantam Draft, but could not eke out a regular role in the WHL until this year, where he emerged as a reliable puck mover for Red Deer. His upside is not tremendous, but he can skate and get the puck out of his own end and could provide reasonable future value for this stage of the draft.

The Stars ended their draft with the first Jamaican born player ever selected in Kamloops’ hulking power winger Jermaine Loewen. In his third year of eligibility, Loewen went from being a bottom line bruiser to someone who could contribute in a top six role at the WHL level. His NHL prospects’ depend on being able to combine the attribute of both areas. Like Mascherin, he could jump right into the AHL next year. Generally speaking, I do not applaud drafting for size, which the Stars were clearly targeting, taking four players who are at least 6-3”, 205, but with one exception, I have no fault in where those big guys were drafted. They took enough in terms of skill and IQ that the organization should see good results from their 2018 haul, even if they are bunched among forwards.

OFP – 52.5

Minnesota Wild
1 (24) Filip Johansson, D, Leksand J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 46th
3 (63) Jack McBain, C, Toronto Jr. Canadiens (OJHL) - ranked 51st
3 (86) Alexander Khovanov, C, Moncton (QMJHL) - ranked 61st
3 (92) Connor Dewar, LW, Everett (WHL) - ranked 153rd
5 (148) Simon Johansson, D, Djurgardens J20 (SuperElit) - unranked
5 (155) Damien Giroux, C, Saginaw (OHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (179) Shawn Boudrias, RW, Gatineau (QMJHL) - unranked
7 (210) Sam Hentges, C, Tri-City (USHL) - unranked

For many years, new Minnesota GM Paul Fenton was lauded as a key driving force behind Nashville’s consistent success at the draft table, where he served as assistant GM since 2006-07 and was involved in other roles with the club since 1998-99 (i.e. Day One). In his first crack at being the final voice on all personnel decisions, the eight players added to the Minnesota organization are very underwhelming. And with four of the eight picks being in their second year of draft eligibility, potential untapped upside is also lacking. In fairness to Fenton, he only took over the franchise with about one month before draft day. With a lack of clarity over how much he could have brought to the scouting meetings, I will reserve judgement on Fenton until the 2019 draft.

They had one pick on day one and used it on a low upside, high IQ defender in Swede Filip Johansson. The right shooting blueliner plays a poised game, keeping his crease clear and featuring heavily in PK rotations. While right handed defenders are always a desired commodity, without the ability to score from the point, that value is diminished. I have a hard time seeing Johansson ever playing much of a role on the power play in the NHL. He projects more as a #4/5 defender at his peak.

The best value picks made by Minnesota this year both came in the third round. With the first pick of the round, they nabbed Jack McBain, a big center who moves well for his size and has been crushing the OJHL since he arrived there two years ago. He was a first round OHL pick too, but preferred the college route. He has very good hands and a hard shot and will be tested by a big step up in competition when he joins Boston College next season. Another high upside pick was made later in the round when the Wild selected Moncton center Alexander Khovanov, who many thought could be a top half of the first round player when the Wildcats selected him very early in last year’s CHL Import Draft. Unfortunately, much of his draft year was wiped out due to a bout with Hepatitis A. When he returned after mid-season, he still showed flashes of puck magic, but his strength and stamina had yet to fully recover by year’s end. A full offseason to return to his previous form could see him take off in a big way and there is a good chance that he ends up as the Wild’s top return from this draft class.

Their third third rounder, Connor Dewar, is more of a late bloomer than the other two, as he really took a few steps forward this year, in his second year of draft eligibility. He has a big motor and can finish. Dewar lacks the upside of McBain, or Khovanov, but it is easy to see a bottom six winger at the highest level in his future. Minnesota went right back to low upside after that point, such as with the pick of Simon Johansson (no relation to Filip, although he is a cousin of Columbus center Alexander Wennberg). Simon Johnasson put up very good numbers from the blueline in his second year of eligibility in the SuperElit, mostly thanks to a strong point shot and good distribution skills. Unfortunately, his skating is rather rough, and he is not nearly as strong away from the puck.

The second fifth rounder taken by Minnesota may have some “diamond in the rough” qualities, as Damien Giroux was one of the top players on a moribund Saginaw team in the OHL. He is very undersized, but he has a good set of offensive tools and could be a solid player in the coming years. There is decent upside in Minnesota’s sixth rounder as well. Although Shawn Boudrias was in his second year of eligibility, had he been born two days later, he would have been in his first year of eligibility. He led Gatineau in scoring by 20 points, and has great size, although he lacks any true standout tools. Minnesota ended their draft with another second year eligible player in Sam Hentges, of Tri-City in the USHL. Hentges put up decent numbers when he was healthy enough to play, although injuries kept him off the ice for much of the second half. The native Minnesotan is going to St. Cloud State next season. With a very low ceiling, medium floor draft haul. Minnesota did very little to move the needle for the organization.

OFP – 51.25

Nashville Predators
4 (111) Jachym Kondelik, C, Muskegon (USHL) - ranked 110th
5 (131) Spencer Stastney, D, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 151st
5 (151) Vladislav Yeryomenko, D, Calgary (WHL) - ranked 196th
7 (213) Milan Kloucek, G, Dynamo Pardubicec (Czech) - unranked

With only four picks to be made, there is not much point in searching for trends in Nashville’s2018 draft class. With their first pick, they went with a tree in USHL center Jachym Kondelik. The 6-6” Czech pivot battled injuries this year with Muskegon, but has decent hands, enough mobility for his size, and shows the ability to play in a defensive role. If he could add more intensity to his game, he could be a real force down the line. He will take his next steps at the University of Connecticut.

With their next pick, the Predators took USNTDP blueliner Spencer Stastney, another player who had some injury trouble early in the year. Stastney is a smart, undersized puck mover, who has shown that he can play in a variety of roles and situations. He has a lot of tools and a generally high hockey IQ, but is overly prone to bonehead plays. If Notre Dame’s coaching staff can iron those out, he has pretty good upside. Later in the fifth round, the Predators drafted Belorussian blueliner Vladislav Yeryomenko, a second year eligible who has been playing in the WHL with Calgary for two seasons, putting up good numbers from the blueline all the while. He turned more heads with a strong WJC for Belarus, showing the ability to withstand a massive workload on a generally overmatched team. He has good hands and in another high IQ player for Nashville’s system.

The Predators completed their draft class with Czech netminder Milan Kloucek, drafted in his third year of eligibility. He performed well in a 10 game run in the men’s league with Dynamo Pardubice, but between never having played in a major international tournament, and moving around a lot between the top two Czech leagues and the junior ranks, he was not really on our radar. Despite not having a big presence in the draft this year, the Predators came away with three skaters who have enough upside to project as potential middle of the roster NHL contributors.

OFP – 50.75

St. Louis Blues
1 (25) Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo J20 (SuperElit)
2 (45) Scott Perunovich, D, Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC)
4 (107) Joel Hofer, G, Swift Current (WHL)
5 (138) Hugh McGing, C, Western Michigan (NCHC)
6 (169) Mathias Laferriere, C, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
7 (200) Tyler Tucker, D, Barrie (OHL)

Four guys with youth and physical upside, and two guys who are older and smaller, but with more proof of success at higher levels. Positional balancing. The Blues’ own first round pick was traded to Philadelphia in the Brayden Schenn trade, but they got a first rounder back from Winnipeg in the Paul Stastny trade. The Blues, sensing an opportunity to get their guy, traded away a third rounder to move up a few spots and select German talent Dominik Bokk at 25^th overall. After tearing up the German U19 league as a 16 year old, Bokk moved to Sweden last year and laid the SuperElit to waste as well. He was less successful in limited time in the SHL, but he did enough last year to prove that he is far more than just a big fish in a small pond. He is a fine skater with high end offensive tools. He should get a much longer leash in the SHL next year in order to be ready to move to North America in 2019-20.

With their second rounder, the Blues went for American WJC hero, the third time eligible blueliner Scott Perunovich. He was too small and wild to be drafted in his first year of eligibility out of Hibbing/Chisholm high school in Minnesota. In his second year of eligibility, he performed alright with Cedar Rapids of the USHL, but still struggled in his own end. This year, he went to Minnesota-Duluth and was the leading scorer on the eventual NCAA champions. In the middle, he took time off to play for his country at the WJC and was electrifying with his puck rushes. He will never be a force in his own zone, but he is a very good skater and capable of brilliance with the puck.

The Blues did not get any big upside plays after that, but each of their final four picks had something to recommend themselves to scouts. Fourth rounder Joel Hofer was a backup netminder with WHL champs Swift Current. He put up the best numbers of any draft eligible netminder in the WHL and has the ideal frame for modern netminders. With Stuart Skinner graduating, he is the likely starter for the Broncos next year. In the fifth round, the Blues selected Hugh McGing, another third time eligible player, who had come off a strong sophomore campaign at Western Michigan and almost joined Perunovich on Team USA at the WJC. The undersized McGing is a playmaker and skates just well enough to evade being a target.

Of all of St. Louis picks, sixth rounder Mathias Laferriere has the least upside. He is young and has decent size, but has not lived up to his advance billing as the seventh overall pic in the QMJHL Entry draft in 2016. None of his attributes project to above average. The Blues’ final 2018 selection came in the form of Barrie blueliner Tyler Tucker. Like Laferriere, Tucker was a high pick going into junior who has been little more than OK in his time in the CHL thus far. He has an adequate game with the puck and plays with a mean streak, but needs to improve his skating in order to make it. While I would have liked to see St. Louis go for more upside in the back half of their draft class, the dynamism of their first two picks could be very impactful to the NHL roster in the near future.

OFP - 51

Winnipeg Jets
2 (60) David Gustafsson, C, HV71 (SHL) - ranked 50th
3 (91) Nathan Smith, C, Cedar Rapids (USHL) - unranked
5 (150) Declan Chisholm, D, Peterborough (OHL) - ranked 141st
5 (153) Giovanni Vallati, D, Kitchener (OHL) - ranked 79th
6 (184) Jared Moe, G, Waterloo (USHL) - ranked 192nd
7 (215) Austin Wong, C, Okotoks (AJHL) - unranked

I often consider the Winnipeg Jets among the more astute drafting teams in the league. That is why it is now hard for me to express how much I dislike their 2018 draft class. I believe that when a team trades away their first round pick, it is all the more of an imperative that they aim for upside with their next few picks, as with expectations already lowered, they can only gain. There is very little upside in this class, and relatively little value in the picks they made. This does not mean that I hate the picks or cannot see a path to the NHL for any of the players whose names they called out, but as a group, I don’t see it. If anything, they targeted physicality over skill, a tactic I have a hard time getting behind.

Second rounder David Gustafsson is a decent pick at that spot. He is not the best skater, but he is strong on the puck, demonstrates a high hockey IQ and is big and effectively powerful. He spent the bulk of his draft year in the SHL and plays a mature game. He projects to third line upside. Their next pick, Nathan Smith of Cedar Rapids, was a real head scratcher, though. A second year eligible with a late birthday, Smith is a decent playmaker who plays a somewhat gritty game, but is a mediocre skater whose reads need a lot of work. To be fair, it was only the first year the Tampa native spent outside of Florida, so he may have more upside than his performance suggests, but I have never seen it.

After sitting out the fourth round, the Jets picked up two decent blueline prospects in the fifth round in Declan Chisholm and Giovanni Vallati, both OHL products. Chisholm, from Peterborough, is a good skater and has some puck moving acumen, but was held back by injury and a poor Petes team this year. Kitchener’s Vallati is an even better skater, who flashes high end IQ and a more physical game. For my money, the Vallati pick was the best value the Jets got in Dallas. I might have been more forgiving of their draft class had they selected Vallati with their third rounder and Nathan Smith with the late fifth rounder. Both Chisholm and Vallati have decent third pairing projections. In the sixth round, Winnipeg selected second time eligible Jared Moe, a big netminder who split the crease in Waterloo with Philadelphia prospect Matej Tomek, who he outperformed. Like Nathan Smith, this was Moe’s first season out of the high school ranks. Moe should have the crease in Waterloo to himself next year before going to Minnesota.

The Jets saved their toughest pick for the end, drafting Okotoks pugilist Austin Wong. Wong had decent, but not eye-catching offensive numbers for the AJHL, but one look at the PIM column lets you know wat kind of player the Jets are adding. He is one of, if not the most, physical player in the entire draft class. Of course, there are drawbacks to that style, often leaving his team shorthanded. If he can tone it down just a bit and work on his skating, he could be OK, but he seems more like a 1980s throwback as is. After drafting high end skill for a number of years, the Jets might have taken a step in the wrong direction with these picks, even if some of them hit their best-case projections.

OFP – 50.5

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.

Jared Moe – McKeen's Hockey

NCAA: Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview and Predictions

NCAA 2019-20 Season Preview: Big Ten

Big Ten Top Draft Eligible Players

Big Ten Top Free Agents

USHL 2019 Clark Cup Playoff Preview

Eastern Conference

Muskegon Lumberjacks (41-17-3-1) vs 6. Dubuque Fighting Saints (28-26-4-4)

Chicago Steel (37-1-4-0) vs 4. Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (36-21-3-2)

Western Conference

Tri-City Storm (45-12-3-2) vs 4. Des Moines Buccaneers (35-22-1-4)

Waterloo Black Hawks (39-16-5-2) vs 3. Sioux Falls Stampede (39-16-5-2)

Projecting the rest of the USHL playoffs (all series are best of fives)

USHL Fall Classic Review and Season Preview

2018 NHL Draft Review: Central Division

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results