Jason Pominville – McKeen's Hockey

My Swede Lord – Buffalo Sabres 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:31:19 +0000

Review/State of Play - The Buffalo Sabres finished last in the NHL, last in their division four out of the last five years and were a dispirited group by seasons end. Ryan O’Reilly professed his frustration with a culture of “being OK with losing”. Jack Eichel also expressed his frustration after three seasons “When I got drafted, if you would’ve said we’d be in this position, I probably would’ve told you to give your head a shake.” This was following a season in which they had overturned their front office firing GM Tim Murray and Head Coach Dan Bylsma after a short time in the saddle and replaced them with GM Jason Botterill and Coach Phil Housley, a Sabres alumni great. This offseason Botterill decided to blow up the support group around his young stars and franchise centerman, Eichel.

Trade winds blow - It started at the trade deadline by trading disgruntled O’Reilly for a package of solid NHL veterans in Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and former first round pick and promising prospect Tage Thompson along with a first round pick in 2019. Berglund and Sobotka make a solid foundation for the third line. Both are responsible defensively and Sobotka is a face off master. Thompson bring size at 6’5” 200 pounds and a good compete level with good hands.

Jeff Skinner

He made two other trades to add impact roster players acquiring Conor Sheary from Pittsburgh for a conditional fourth round draft pick and then add Jeff Skinner for prospect Cliff Pu and three draft picks (second, third and sixth round picks). Both wingers are 26-years-old, Skinner has scored 30 goals three times and Sheary netted 23 in 2016-17. Both had poor seasons and could be rejuvenated in a revamped Sabres top six. Skinner is a free agent after this season and Sheary is signed at a reasonable $3.0 million AAV for the next two seasons. Botterill added four experienced roster players for O’Reilly along with a first-round draft pick came as a bonus.

Sheary and Skinner should man the left wing on lines one and two. Sheary has experience playing with superstars after being teamed with Sidney Crosby much of the last two seasons and Skinner is a sniper. The Sabres are hoping that another new addition in 19-year-old Casey Mittelstadt, who signed an entry level contract in March and appeared in six games, can be the answer in the middle on the second line. He has very high-end offensive skills and impressed with five points in six NHL games in his debut. He will be supported by an experienced winger, in addition to either Sheary or Skinner on the left side, he will line up with Kyle Okposo or Jason Pominville, who are both on the wrong side of 30, but can snipe when called upon. Okposo faced some serious health concerns and could bounce back to the player he was, but not a given considering age and health, even with the infusion of talent around him.

Dahlin impact - The painful 2017-18 turned to enthusiasm when the ping pong ball fell their way this time and they claimed Rasmus Dahlin. He is a dynamic talent at 6’2”, 185 pounds and is ready to make an impact in the NHL immediately. He projects as a franchise defenseman and this past season was named top defenseman at the World Junior Tournament, played against men in a regular role for Frolunda, leading all SHL defensemen in scoring aged 22-years and under. He has elite level skating, passing and reading the game. He is a natural left defense but can play either side. Buffalo is deep in left defenseman, but he will line up nicely with Rasmus Ristolainen who shoots right on the power play.

Ristolainen has had tremendous pressure placed on him and has been mercilessly overworked on poor Sabre teams. He has played over 25 minutes each of the last season and has been labelled a disappointment after being the eighth over all pick. Dahlin may steal some power play ice time from him, but more importantly removes the pressure. Ristoulainen may flourish on a more talented team and in a lesser role.

Marco Scandella lined up primarily with Ristolainen last year playing over 23 minutes a game, killing penalties but if they make Dahlin and Ristolainen the top pairing, he slides in on a solid second unit with Zach Bogosian. Scandella is 28-years-old and provided a solid season. Bogosian is also 28 and missed all but 18 games last season. Once a highly regarded prospect, he also gets a reset, but there are some concerns about health. They acquired 33-year-old Matt Hunwick for added depth.

In net, they bailed on the Robin Lehner experiment and signed 32-year-old Carter Hutton in the off-season for three years at $2.75 million AAV. It will be his first season as a number one goalie and sustaining a level of play over 60 games can prove a challenge. Linus Ullmark, a highly regarded prospect will back him up and could steal the crease. He has a 0.917 save percentage in 26 NHL games and has been a standout in the AHL.

Outlook - The Sabres will be improved this season and will be an exciting team to watch. They are still rebuilding and have a serious cache of draft picks and prospects in the system. They might surprise as Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart look ready to break out as superstars. Dahlin’s addition to the back end makes them better already. Watch for growing pains but the playoffs will be a reach.

Training Camp Notes – October 3rd, 2017

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 03 Oct 2017 22:25:53 +0000

Anaheim

Ryan Getzlaf – Sustained a lower-body injury last week and hasn’t resumed skating yet. A couple days back Ducks coach Randy Carlyle did say on Saturday that he expected Getzlaf to play in the opener, but that’s on Thursday so we’re cutting it pretty close now.

Patrick Eaves – Didn’t end up playing in any preseason games. His lower-body injury might keep him out of the season opener as well. He’s another player Carlyle projected to be available for the opener while speaking on Saturday though, so we’ll see.

Arizona

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Good news on this front. His recovery from his knee injury has progressed to the point where he’s been practicing with the Coyotes. It looks like he’ll be ready for the season opener.

Antti Raanta –A lower-body injury kept him out of the Coyotes’ last preseason game. He practiced with Arizona on Sunday though, so he’ll probably be fine for the opener.

Boston

Torey Krug – The Bruins are hoping that his jaw injury only sidelines him for the first three-to-five regular season games. In the meantime, he has been skating. For what it’s worth, when he does return he’ll be wearing a protective mask.

Buffalo

Benoit Pouliot – Was on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo during Sunday’s practice. He had been practicing as a bottom-six forward previously, so it will be interesting to see if he ends up on that unit to start the campaign.

Zemgus Girgensons – It was bad news for Girgensons. He was previously on Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo’s line, but Girgensons was knocked down to the third unit with Sam Reinhart and Jason Pominville. The Sabres’ third line has potential though.

Rasmus Ristolainen – After averaging 26:28 minutes per game last season (up from 25:17 minutes in 2015-16), Sabres coach Phil Housley wants to cut Ristolainen down to 22-23 minutes per game. The hope is that will keep him fresher for the final stretch.

Calgary

Jaromir Jagr – Signed a one-year contract with Calgary that comes with a $1 million base salary. Not sure what line Jagr plays for, but here’s a fun aside: Jagr was drafted the same year as Matthew Tkachuk’s father Keith. Keith Tkachuk retired seven years ago.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – His hip/back problems remain something of a mystery. On Monday Hurricanes coach Bill Peters remarked, "We've got to get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later." Stempniak is questionable for the season opener and how much time he might miss beyond that seems like anybody’s guess.

Chicago

Connor Murphy – Sustained a lower-body injury on Saturday and didn’t practice on Monday as a result. It’s not clear if he’ll be available for the opener.

Colorado

Jonathan Bernier – As mentioned before, he sustained a groin injury on Sept. 25. The good news is that he resumed practicing with the team on Monday.

Columbus

Brandon Dubinsky – Got into the preseason finale on Saturday after missing all the previous exhibition contests due to a wrist injury. He should be fine for the season opener.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Although the Blue Jackets have experimented with using him as a center, it looks like he’ll be serving as a left winger to start the campaign. His projected linemates are Brandon Dubinsky and Matt Calvert.

Boone Jenner – His back injury will keep him out of the season opener. Beyond that there’s no timetable for his return. He hasn’t skated with the Blue Jackets yet.

Detroit

David Booth – Signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Red Wings. It sounds like he’ll be in the lineup for the season opener, probably alongside Riley Sheahan and Luke Glendening.

Florida

Owen Tippett – He’ll be part of the Panthers’ roster for the start of the 2017-18 campaign. The downside is that it might be as a fourth line forward, so he might not be a fantasy factor for a while still.

Los Angeles

Mike Cammalleri/Jonny Brodzinski – The two might find themselves on either side of Anze Kopitar to begin the season. Obviously that would be great news for both of them, but it’d be a particularly big opportunity for the rookie Brodzinski.

Minnesota

Zach Parise – Is now expected to miss the first two games of the regular season due to his back problem. He also missed the Wild’s whole preseason schedule.

Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson – There’s been talk of him not opening the season with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Two potential candidates to replace him on the top line would be Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell. None of that’s been finalized yet though.

New Jersey

Jimmy Hayes – More of an FYI because he doesn’t have fantasy value, but he did earn a one-year, $700,000 contract with New Jersey after attending the Devils’ training camp on a PTO.

Pavel Zacha – He’s getting a big opportunity off the bat as he’s projected to open on a line with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. It’s not set in stone, but Devils coach John Hynes called it a “strong possibility.

NY Rangers

Kevin Shattenkirk – It’s not surprising, but it looks like Shattenkirk will be paired with Ryan McDonagh to start the season.

NY Islanders

Jordan Eberle – Another bit of anticipated, but nice to be basically confirmed news is that Eberle will be starting the campaign alongside John Tavares. The third member of that unit should be Anders Lee. Islanders coach Doug Weight has been happy with that trio so far.

Ottawa

Derick Brassard – Has been cleared for contact, so he might be able to play in the season opener. He’s been recovering from a shoulder injury.

Erik Karlsson – Still dealing with a foot injury, it’s now very unlikely that he’ll play in the opener. Not sure when he’ll be back.

Philadelphia

December 5, 2015:Philadelphia Flyers Defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere (53) moves the puck out of the Flyers zone in the first period during the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

Shayne Gostisbehere – Sustained an upper-body injury during Sunday’s game. There hasn’t been an update yet, but he did join the Flyers’ flight to San Jose (ahead of Wednesday’s opener), so you could take that as an encouraging sign.

Travis Sanheim/Sam Morin – They were battling for a spot on the roster, but if Gostisbehere isn’t available then they could both stay on the roster for now. Fellow rookie defenseman Robert Hagg did make the roster so he should remain with the squad regardless of Gostisbehere’s status.

San Jose

Joe Thornton – He made his preseason debut on Saturday, clearing the way for him to participate in the opener. He underwent knee surgery to repair a torn ACL/MCL.

St. Louis

Scottie Upshall – Not of much fantasy relevance, but he did sign a one-year contract with the Blues. He began on a PTO with Vancouver, but found an opportunity with the Blues instead due to their injuries. Upshall is likely to enter the season on the fourth line alongside Kyle Brodziak and Chris Thorburn.

Washington

Tom Wilson – He’ll have a hearing tomorrow (Tuesday) for boarding the Blues’ Sam Blais. He already served a two-game preseason suspension over interference, so maybe this will be a harsher punishment as a result.

Brooks Orpik – Capitals coach Barry Trotz is tentatively planning to pair Orpik up with John Carlson to open the season. Orpik usually played alongside Nate Schmidt last season, but he’s not with the team anymore. Similarly, Carlson’s most common 2016-17 partner, Karl Alzner, is also gone.

Jakub Vrana – Not set in stone, but there’s a chance that Vrana not only opens the season with the Capitals, but does so on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

Winnipeg

Matt Hendricks – Is on the injured reserve after sustaining an undisclosed injury during Wednesday’s preseason contest. He’s regarded as day-to-day.

Andrew Copp – Suffered a knee injury during Saturday’s preseason contest. Jets coach Paul Maurice hasn’t ruled out Copp for the season opener though.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Goalies and Peripheral Studs

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 02 Dec 2015 19:14:31 +0000

This week the waiver wire takes a close look at specific needs your fantasy team may have. Goaltending is a precious commodity in many fantasy leagues and there are some under the radar netminders who could provide good value. And if you are in a league which counts peripheral stats such as hits and blocked shots there are some players who can help you stuff those categories.

Garret Sparks, Toronto Maple Leafs – Goalie 11% owned

James Reimer is injured and Jonathan Bernier is struggling so badly that Leafs Head Coach Mike Babcock has recalled Garret Sparks from the Marlies and gave him his first career NHL start. How did Sparks do? He made 24 saves to shut out the Edmonton Oilers for his first career win and shutout. Not bad! How long will Sparks continue to see starts in the NHL with Toronto? Hard to say, but as long as Reimer is out and Bernier is on a milk carton, expect Babcock to ride Sparks until further notice.

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets – Goalie 46% owned

Like in Toronto, Ondrej Pavelec is down with an injury and Mike Hutchinson is struggling, giving up 17 goals and three losses in his last four starts. Out of necessity (or desperation) Coach Paul Maurice turned to the recently recalled Hellebuyck to make his NHL debut. How did he do? He got his first win allowing only one goal against, not bad. Unlike Sparks who has come from the ECHL, Hellebuyck has a much stronger pedigree playing college hockey and having a breakout performance at last year’s World Championships for Team USA as indicated by his higher ownership percentage. Hellebuyck should represent a stronger long term solution and by seasons end could even be in keeper consideration for some leagues to a must own in others.

Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers – Goalie 40% owned

Nilsson has stolen the starting job away from Cam Talbot who has not played well so far. Nilsson has represented the more reliable option but could really use some run support from the Oilers to help his fantasy cause in the win column. Despite having only one win in his last five starts, his season stats are impressive (for an Oilers goalie) at 2.7 GAA and a .911 save%. When Connor McDavid returns it could fix his win column stat, so scoop him up while he is available.

Category Champions

Leo Komarov, Toronto Maple Leafs – Right Wing 39% owned

Komarov makes this list by virtue of his hits stats, 114 hits is second overall in the NHL. However, it is worth noting that Komarov is playing on a line with Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk and has ten goals and four assists this season already. Not only can you count on Komarov to help you win your hits column, he won’t hurt you win other categories as well.

Kris Russel, Calgary Flames – Defence 41% owned

Russel is leading the NHL in blocked shots with 80 to date. He is logging big time minutes for the Flames at 21:55 minutes a night with over a minute on the power play as well as almost a full two minutes on the penalty kill. Russel has also provided a little offense to boot with six points on the season.

Jean Gabriel Pageau, Ottawa Senators – Centre 29 % owned

A fan favorite in Ottawa who loves to play the Habs, Pageau is tied for second in the NHL with three shorthanded points. While this category alone is not reliable enough to merit recognition, Pageau has also been cleaning up on draws with 196 wins (27^th in the NHL) and has produced nine points in total on the season.

Mark Borowiecki, Ottawa Senators – Defence 30% owned

If you are looking for a player to pad all your peripheral categories, look no further than the Sens Borowiecki. He has 38 penalty minutes, 92 hits, and 39 blocked shots. While he is not at the top of any of those categories, he provides a balanced dose of each giving him extreme value in formats that score those stats.

Bonus Round

Here are some players who are hot, recently recalled, or worth keeping an eye on. Byron Froese of the Toronto Maple Leafs can help win some face off categories, his offense has not yet arrived, and it may never but he is a Coaches favorite and sees lots of minutes for the Leafs. Alex Radulov is in the KHL but will be a free agent this summer. If you are in a deep keeper league and can burn a roster spot on him it may be worth the risk as he may return to the NHL. The population of Pominville just jumped to two. After a very slow start to the season, Jason Pominville now has two goals in the last two games. Defencemen Nikita Nesterov and Andrey Pedan were recently recalled by Tampa Bay and Vancouver respectively and may see some NHL action soon. And finally, Tomas Jurco and Teemu Pulkkinen have been recalled by the Detroit Red Wings. Thanks for reading, and keep your stick on the ice.

McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook 2014-15: Additional Statistical Content

Gus Katsaros — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 13:32:50 +0000

If you were following along this past offseason, you likely came across a variety of charts and visualizations I posted on twitter while working on player profiles for the McKeen’s Yearbook. I had lots of prompts to describe the significance of the charts leading to extended thoughts about methodology behind writing up the profiles.

I put together the entire NHL season charts in a handy pdf on the eve of training camps opening up across the continent focusing on possession or shot-based metrics.

Download the pdf here of the 10-game rolling average of NHL teams Corsi, PDO and team level on-ice save percentage, shot differential and shooting percentage NHL 2013-14

** All metrics and how they were used is detailed below.

In addition to shot-based metrics, special teams play n important role in player assessment so there’s two special teams pdf documents

A rolling 10 game power play (and Penalty kill) average broken down by home and road (and overall) is available here -- NHL 2013-14 Special Teams

The last pdf features a cumulative power play graph based on power play opportunities, goals, and power play percentage over the course of 2013-14 for every NHL team -- NHL 2013-14 PP

The Yearbook’s 20th year edition features more analytics and extended profiles than the past, exploiting enhanced analysis offered through shot based metrics to compliment the industry-leading, extensive scouting reports known historically to our readers.

The charts I tweeted over the off season were jump off points starting from the team level and filtering down to players adding a new element in the overall analysis.

The team charts looked like this one of the Minnesota Wild. I liked this particular chart because it visually represented a look into the Wild’s season performance with an early spike and eventual drop, via a variety of shot metrics to paint a descriptive picture. Add the decline of the Wild’s power play over the season and the picture becomes clearer. At the team level, there’s indicators, and filtered into the player level turned out some robust player profiles in a special 20-year anniversary edition.

I should have posted the background on how I used these charts over the summer. The explanation should give some insight on team performance on an axis of time over the season.

The first consideration is that these values are all at 5v5, with special teams analyzed independently. The second is that these are shot-based metrics, with only one season or less of data trying to expand the amount of data points to work with lacking with sole goals data that isn’t as robust in a season or less.

Two values are represented at 5v5, overall value, and games close (with the score within 1 goal in the first two periods, or tied in the third). These lines diverge and cross each other offering a unique glimpse of the impact of ‘score effects’ (http://oilersnation.com/2014/9/1/the-nhl-advanced-stats-cheat-sheet) defined below.

Playing to Score Effect - The persistent tendency for teams who are leading to cede possession to teams who are trailing. This effect tends to accelerate the higher the goal differential in a game. For example, a team leading by three goals tends to give up more possession than a team leading by one or two goals (and vice versa). Can "wash out" over time, but can be very pronounced in small samples, such as a single game or a brief series of games.

5V5 OVERALL AND 5V5 CLOSE

Plotting the overall close lines together on the chart offers a visual with performance over time. According to the score effects definition, when a team is leading, they tend to sit back and protect the lead, with the trailing team piling on more shot attempts and skewing overall numbers.

The team effect with the lead is a higher ‘close’ line with a lower overall line. Using the Minnesota image from the beginning, the Corsi close line tends to be slightly higher until mid November, however the two lines are so tight with the overall Corsi at 5v5 the indication is that games were fairly tight except for a period closer to the middle of November where the lines diverge.

Towards the end of the month into December, the Corsi close line is substantially lower than the overall Corsi line, which can be generally interpreted as the Wild being outscored early then subsequently driving up the overall Corsi courtesy of score effects and not outplaying the opposition. The Wild between November 25 and December 31 sported a record of 5-12-1 mirroring the theory behind the image.

METRICS

Metrics presented are calculated as ‘on-ice’ meaning, two different things at the team and player level. These are records with players on the ice at the player level, while the image above at the team level is global. Filtering to the player level, graph could be very different since the player’s on-ice performance may not exactly parallel that of the team’s. The example here is Jason Pominville, with a similar looking chart for Corsi and PDO, but slightly different isolating his specific performance while on the ice independent of the overall team’s metrics.

This has significance when measuring the divergence (often referred to as a relative stat – Corsi of a player for instance, relative to the Corsi of the overall team, or quality of competition or teammate).

The chart at the top contains PDO and Corsi%.

PDO is the sum of on-ice save-percentage and shooting percentage, two individual items that have been demonstrated to lack a factor of repeatability. It’s known as a measure of ‘luck’ which could be misconstrued at times with the conventional and statistical definition of luck. Is general, luck is the random element associated to uncontrollable events that can land in or out of favor. The statistical view is one of repeatability, that is, the elements that can determine on ice performance but aren’t a repeatable events (puck bounces etc).

To further break this down and determine just which element was the dominant factor, the bottom chart plotted both individual on-ice save percentage and shooting percentage. Since PDO is a simple linear addition of the two variables, any one of the distinct factors can be dominant offering a different perspective of on-ice success or struggle. It’s this reason why I wanted to separate each element to view independently. I offered this in a post featuring Jason Spezza and how he drove the play for the Sens with games close, but suffered through sketchy goaltending.

Corsi is a measure of on-ice shot attempts towards the opposition goal relative to shot attempts towards the player’s own goal expressed as a ratio, Corsi For% or CF%. Shot attempts include shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots, and offer a proxy to puck possession and with studies linking ratios to offensive zone time

In the chart below, I’ve isolated the shot differential, to isolate shots on goal performance to the player’s overall Corsi.

Putting it all together in an example is oft-maligned former Sharks Captain Joe Thornton.

The boxed period segregated his Corsi close that was on the rise from late-November to mid-December as shown via the yellow line. His overall Corsi began to dip towards the end, but the strange part was the large plunging PDO close (with the same definition of close). The two periods are highlighted, from 10/03 to 11/30 and then from 11/30-12-14.

The take away from the table in the image is the CFcl% of 68% with a similar save percentage (0.903) but a severe dip in on-ice shooting percentage, affecting the dip in PDO despite the rise in Corsi close.

Further illustrating this is the individual PDO components of save percentage and shooting percentage, both overall and in games with the score close within the boxed area. The decline in shooting percentage drove the PDO. The Corsi close was driven by the high amount of shots on goal differential signified by the red line in the middle of the chart.

Much more went into the overall analysis, but there’s little nuggets like throughout the entire suite of images at the team level. I won’t go into the player level, however a lot of the insight ended up in the Yearbook as a result. Enjoy the 20th year edition.

Data sources:

timeonice.com .. stats.hockeyanalysis.com .. nhl.com

**********

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@mckeenshockey
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WILD HORSES

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:18:26 +0000

The Wild had another decent season finishing fourth in their division and 12th overall while qualifying for the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Competition in the Central Division and Western Conference is tough. Minnesota has a good blend of veterans and youth throughout the roster but there are questions throughout as well.

The forwards are led by the likes of veterans Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and Captain Mikko Koivu. Minnesota scored 2.43 goals per game, a number they should be able to increase going forward. The addition of Thomas Vanek should provide a boost to the offense as a significant upgrade over Dany Heatley. The youth also arrived last season to provide secondary scoring and fantasy value. Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, and Charlie Coyle all enjoyed a breakout season, while Justin Fontaine and Erik Haula also had impressive performances. The Wild will be able to roll three offensive lines with good depth but may be lacking the role players who provide grit, toughness and defense.

The defense is anchored by the minute munching Ryan Suter who led the NHL in TOI with a whopping 29:24 minutes per game. There is a significant drop off after Suter with Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Marco Scandella in the middle tier. The final two roster spots should be contested by journeymen Keith Ballard and Jonathon Blum, and free agents Christian Folin and Justin Falk.

Perhaps the biggest question is in goal. Ilya Bryzgalov was brought in as a rental at the trade deadline to provide insurance but was not resigned. Despite their concerns in goal, the Wild declined to make any changes and will enter the season with Niklas Backstrom, Josh Harding and Darcy Kuemper. Backstrom is aging, in decline, and fragile while Harding is dealing with M.S. and is a major question. Kuemper may be the safest fantasy option.

We have posted the following player profiles: Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Nino Neiderreiter, Erik Haula, Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Darcy Kuemper, Josh Harding