Jean-Gabriel Pageau – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 19:43:46 +0000

PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 29: New York Islanders center Mathew Barzal (13) warms up before the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Islanders on December 29, 2024, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

With Patrick Roy behind the Islanders bench, the team managed a .500 points percentage, finishing with 82 points (35-35-12) in 82 games. The Islanders were a mid-range puck possession squad, ranking 18th in Corsi percentage (49.6) and 14th in expected goals percentage (50.6). Special teams was a large part of the Islanders’ undoing last season, ranking 31st with 4.14 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and ranking 30th with 9.59 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. A mediocre possession team can’t overcome such terrible special teams, even with Ilya Sorokin as the starting goaltender. Semyon Varlamov was injured for much of the season, so Marcus Hogberg had the second-most appearances among Islanders goaltenders and that didn’t help matters.

What’s Changed?

The Islanders hired Mathieu Darche to be their new General Manager, taking over for Lou Lamoriello and he was relatively busy in the offseason, starting with the selection of defenceman Matthew Schaefer with the first pick in the 2025 Draft. The Isles signed left winger Jonathan Drouin from the Colorado Avalanche and plucked Maxim Shabanov from the KHL, where he had 67 points (23 G, 44 A) in 65 games for Traktor Chelyabinsk. More dramatically, the Islanders traded defenceman Noah Dobson to Montreal, acquiring forward Emil Heineman from the Canadiens as part of the return. The Islanders added David Rittich from the Los Angeles Kings to stabilize their goaltending, and enforcer Matt Martin skated off the ice and into the Isles’ front office.

What would success look like?

For a team with as many veterans as the islanders, the playoffs must be the objective. They don’t appear to have the high-end talent to compete with the very best teams in the league, though they made some deep playoff runs in 2020 and 2021 when it didn’t look like they had that kind of talent, either. The other priority should be to make sure that No. 1 pick Schaefer develops as much as possible. Shelter him if he needs sheltering, but make sure that he is going to be a fixture on this blueline for 15 years.

What could go wrong?

The Islanders have been dependent on excellent goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and that always presents a risk, that if the goaltending falls off that the rest of the team is not equipped to handle it. On one hand, it’s hard to imagine that the Islanders could duplicate such an awful special teams performance, but if they did, that would once again prevent them from reaching the playoffs. Just as success would be making the playoffs and developing Schaefer properly, the opposite end of the spectrum would be to miss the playoffs, but not by much so they don’t get a great shot at the lottery, and they botch the development of their No. 1 overall draft pick.

Top Breakout Candidate

As exciting as it would be to have a rookie defenceman like Schaefer take the league by storm, he is just 18 years old and that’s asking a lot. On the other hand, Russian forward Maxim Shabanov is 24 and coming off an outstanding season in the KHL, finishing third in league scoring. There’s no guarantee that the undersized Shabanov will make the transition to North America and fill the net, but the Islanders should be motivated to give him the chance, and he might even be able to help their pathetic power play.

FORWARDS

Mathew Barzal

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	16	40	56	0.86

A brilliant skater who adds an electrifying element to the Islanders attack, Barzal missed 52 games with injuries last season, finishing with just 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 30 games. The scoring totals were somewhat deceptive because underlying numbers suggest that Barzal was as dangerous as ever. He had career-best rates for on-ice Corsi For and on-ice Expected Goals For during five-on-five play. He also had his individual highest rate of shot attempts per 60 minutes but scored on just 5.1 percent of his shots at five-on-five, a far cry from 10 percent or better, like he did in six of the previous seven seasons. All of these stats suggest that Barzal is still a difference-maker, and he is consistently the most dangerous forward on the Islanders roster, so if he is healthy this season, he will be expected to produce. He has shifted to playing the wing more often, in part because he’s terrible on faceoffs, winning 42.3 percent for his career, but given the Isles’ personnel after trading Brock Nelson last season, Barzal may need to spend more time down the middle of the ice in 2025-2026. He does have some injury history, so that creates a range on his possible outcomes. Expecting him to miss at least 15 games is probably fair, and if that’s the case, then 50-55 points is a reasonable expectation. If he’s healthy, maybe 65-70 is more on target.

Bo Horvat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	31	31	62	0.76

One of the features that made Horvat appealing to the Islanders when they acquired him from Vancouver was that he was reliably productive. In the past two seasons, he has scored 61 goals and the Islanders have outshot and outscored opponents consistently with him on the ice. He’s doing his part and, last season, it came with a variety of linemates. Anders Lee was his most common winger but with Barzal injured, Kyle Palmieri, Simon Holmstrom, Anthony Duclair and Jean-Gabriel Pageau each played more than 200 five-on-five minutes with Horvat. A physically strong player, Horvat wins puck battles and handled more than 20 minutes of ice time per game last season. One reason to be optimistic about his chances for the 2025-2026 season is that the Islanders power play was abysmal last season and Horvat’s production suffered. There were 136 players that played at least 150 minutes during five-on-four play last season and 132 of them had more points per 60 minutes than Horvat’s 1.65 per 60. He had scored 71 power play goals in the previous seven seasons, so he ought to bounce back. He is as reliable as anyone on the Isles’ roster and has missed a total of five games over the past three seasons, so Horvat should be able to contribute 30 goals and 60-plus points this season.

Jonathan Drouin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
62	13	30	43	0.69

A very talented player who has had an up-and-down career, Drouin had a good thing going in Colorado over the past two seasons, tallying 93 points (30 G, 63 A) in 122 games. Of course, one of the reasons that Drouin has had ups-and-downs in his career is that he has had difficulty staying healthy, and he played just 43 games for Colorado in 2024-2025. No matter who Drouin skates with on the Islanders roster in 2025-2026, it will be a downgrade from riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado. Drouin scored on a career high 19.6 percent of his shots last season, so that is a number that is likely to regress, but Drouin is a creative offensive player and effective puck distributor and as much as he is a finesse player, he turned in better defensive results in his two seasons with Colorado and that would certainly enhance his value if he could bring a more reliable two-way game to the Islanders. The good news for Drouin is that, if he's healthy, he should play a big role for the Isles. Given his injury history, it’s entirely fair to expect Drouin to miss 15-20 games and, if that’s the case, he could still find a way to contribute 40 points.

Anders Lee

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	25	23	48	0.60

Going into last season, it was possible that the Islanders were ready to prepare their captain for a decreased role. He had played 15:34 per game on his way to contributing 37 points (20 G, 17 A) in 81 games in 2023-2024, the kind of numbers that suggested he was moving down the depth chart. Then, last season, Lee went out and earned his place in the lineup, finishing with 29 goals and 54 points, his highest totals in those categories since the 2017-2018 season. To get that kind of bounce back from a 34-year-old winger was unexpected, but Lee is an imposing physical presence and that doesn’t go away with age. He can still plant himself in front of the other team’s net and he generated 233 shots on goal last season, the high-water mark for his career! Lee has scored at least 20 goals in eight consecutive seasons, not counting the shortened 2020-2021 season, during which he was also injured but still delivered 12 goals in 27 games. The Islanders have outscored opponents with Lee on the ice during five-on-five play in six of the past seven seasons and last season the Isles outscored opponents 60-43 in those situations, the second-best differential of his career. Even if he’s in a complementary role, Lee still figures to get power play time and should be capable of scoring 25 goals and 45 points.

Simon Holmstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	23	43	0.54

Drafted with the 19th pick in the 2019 Draft, Holmstrom took a while to reach the NHL and he has started to make positive contributions in the past couple of seasons, scoring 35 goals and 70 points in 150 games. Last season, he was shuffled around the lineup – his three most common linemates were centers Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Casey Cizikas, and Bo Horvat – and had a serious hot streak from November 1 through December 21, during which he recorded 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in 24 games. Holmstrom had just 34 shots on goal over that stretch, which was a good indication that his scoring surge was unsustainable, and it was. While Holmstrom appears to be more accomplished defensively, where he is closer to average, he has scored on 20.8 percent of his shots in the past two seasons, and that’s incredibly high, but he does contribute quite a bit in transition, where the percentages tend to be higher, and he does have a dangerous shot when given room to let it go. There is uncertainty over his role going into 2025-2026 because he was all over the lineup in 2024-2025, so consider 15 goals and 35 points a baseline for him, with room to move up if he ends up skating with more accomplished offensive players.

Kyle Palmieri

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	23	44	0.54

There were a few lean years on the back of Palmieri’s hockey card, from the end of his New Jersey tenure through his first couple of seasons with the Islanders, but he has sniped 54 goals in the past two seasons, so the 34-year-old winger has some life left in his game. He did tone down his physical play last season, recording just 54 hits in 82 games, his fewest hits in a season since he had 48 hits in 42 games as a rookie in 2012-2013. Even so, Palmieri has a nose for the net and will put his body in harm’s way if it means getting a chance to score. While he has returned to being an offensive threat, Palmieri’s defensive game has slipped in the past couple of seasons, with the Islanders surrendering more shots, goals, and expected goals against with Palmieri on the ice. Palmieri’s most common linemates last season were Brock Nelson, before he was traded, Maxim Tsyplakov, and Bo Horvat. There will be competition for quality ice time among the Islanders wingers and Palmieri isn’t assured of winning those battles, but 20-25 goals and 45 points is a reasonable expectation.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	26	38	0.47

Although he does not have imposing size, Pageau plays with an edge to his game and is a rare center who hits consistently. He has recorded at least 140 hits in four straight seasons, Those aren’t empty hits, either, as Pageau’s battles helped push the puck the right way when he was on the ice. It also helped that he spent some time on right wing on the top line when Barzal was injured because Pageau then ended up with more offensive zone starts and, ultimately, finished with a 52 percent Corsi, the best mark of his career. His 42 points (14 G, 28 A) tied for the second most of his career, and he won a career-high 59.6 percent of his faceoffs, so by all accounts the 2024-2025 season was a strong one for the veteran pivot. He is expected to fill the third-line center role this season, but it’s possible that he might see some time in the second center spot, especially if the Islanders use Barzal on the wing. In any case, Pageau could reasonably be expected to contribute a dozen goals and 35-40 points, with 140-plus hits in 2025-2026.

Maxim Tsyplakov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	26	38	0.49

Arriving in the NHL last season as a 26-year-old rookie out of Russia, Tsyplakov scored 31 goals in 65 games during his last season in the KHL, so that might have prompted his jump to the Islanders, but goal-scoring was not really his forte, either. The 6-foot-3 winger plays a hard physical game and recorded 140 hits in his first NHL season. While he is good at protecting and passing the puck, he did not show great finishing ability in his first season with the Islanders. At the same time, Tsyplakov was reliable defensively and not shy about using his size to create turnovers on the forecheck and then going hard to the front of the opponents’ net. There were 197 forwards to play at least 100 minutes at five-on-four last season and Tsyplakov ranked 190th with 1.53 points per 60 minutes with the man advantage. That may not fall entirely on him, as the Isles’ power play was awful, but he didn’t help. Like several Islanders forwards, Tsyplakov has the ability to move around the lineup. He plays with the grind of a checking forward but does have enough skill to his game that he can at least fit in a more offensive role, too. His most likely fit is somewhere in the middle six and, in his second season, it would seem fair to expect maybe a dozen goals and 35-40 points.

Anthony Duclair

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
55	14	12	26	0.47

There was real hope that having some security and re-uniting with Patrick Roy, who had coached him in junior hockey, would bring out the best in Duclair and that most definitely did not happen in 2024-2025. In fact, before the season was over, he had been sent away from the team for some personal time. It was an undeniably disastrous season, as he finished with a mere 11 points (7 G, 4 A) in 44 games and, even worse, his defensive play was a mess with the islanders out-scored 27-17 during five-on-five play with Duclair on the ice. His defensive impacts have been consistently poor and that’s the kind of thing that can cost a player his spot in the lineup. The Islanders are Duclair’s ninth team, so there have obviously been peaks and valleys to the man’s NHL career. He is a four-time 20-goal scorer, who uses his speed to create chances and is excellent at using dekes to finish on breakaways. The Islanders should be seriously motivated to get Duclair back on his game this season and he may be able to contribute 15 goals and 30 points, but his status is unreliable at this point, so it’s probably best to wait and see how it goes early in the season before looking to add Duclair to a fantasy roster.

DEFENCE

Tony DeAngelo

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	6	30	36	0.56

With the Islanders trading Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens, that leaves a huge opening for DeAngelo to be the top offensive defenceman on the roster since that is the one proven positive dimension to his game. His previous stops in the NHL have been tumultuous so he did not land an NHL contract at the start of last season and went to the KHL, where he was thriving on ice with 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 34 games for SKA St. Petersburg, but he rankled teammates and coaching staff on the way to getting released. He signed with the Islanders, cleared waivers, and returned to the NHL in late January, getting an incredible 23:21 of ice time per game for the Islanders. It was the highest average time on ice of his career, and he contributed 19 points (4 G, 15 A) in 35 games. Eight of those 19 points came on the power play and that is, not surprisingly, where DeAngelo is most effective. He is a confident puck-handler who is ready to shoot and move the puck in the offensive zone. In the defensive zone, however, he is a clear liability. Of the 256 defencemen to play at least 200 five-on-five minutes last season, DeAngelo ranked 244th with 3.00 expected goals against per 60 minutes and the Islanders were outscored 30-27 with him on the ice. Whatever shortcomings he might have defensively, he is clearly the No. 1 offensive option on the Islanders blueline. Perhaps No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer will be ready to take on a big role during his rookie season, but that would be asking a lot of an 18-year-old, so that likely means a big role for DeAngelo. He has never played more than 70 games in an NHL season, so he is likely to miss some time, but if he plays 65-plus games, then DeAngelo should be able to contribute 35 points. There is a world in which it goes even better than that, as he has three seasons to his credit with more than 40 points, but the downside risk needs to be taken into account, too.

Alexander Romanov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	5	18	23	0.30

The Islanders leaned heavily on Romanov during the 2024-2025 season, as he averaged a career-high 22:18 of ice time per game. He finished with 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 64 games, and while that is not earth-shattering offensive output, it was the third straight season in which he had recorded at least 20 points. Where Romanov does stand out is blocked shots (165) and hits (147) and those numbers make him a viable fantasy contributor in banger leagues or even deep leagues that include those peripheral stats. Looking ahead, Romanov will face a challenge of dealing with a new defence partner because his most common partner last season was Noah Dobson, who was traded to Montreal. With Dobson and Romanov on the ice, the Islanders controlled 54.7 percent of shot attempts and 53.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. When Romanov played with other partners, the Islanders controlled 45.5 percent of shot attempts and expected goals, so that is going to be an issue to keep an eye on. There is still little reason to believe that Romanov is going to put up big point totals, so he will probably fall between 20 and 25 points. However, he should also be able to produce 160 hits and 160 blocked shots, which makes him surprisingly valuable for fantasy managers.

Ryan Pulock

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	5	16	21	0.27

When Pulock arrived in the NHL, his heavy shot from the point was his calling card and that has not disappeared, but it is no longer the main feature of his game. Prior to last season, he had turned into a reliable defender, capable of handling difficult top four minutes. Last season was different, though, as Pulock was on the wrong end of possession numbers, falling just below 46 percent Corsi and recording a career-low 46.2 percent expected goals percentage. Whether he was effective or not, Pulock still logged more than 21 minutes per game and finished the season with 23 points (5 G, 18 A), 100 hits and 155 blocked shots. None of those numbers really put him into the mix for fantasy managers, but he is worth tracking during the season because, depending on who else is available, he may get time on the power play. He only had a couple of points with the man advantage last season, so it’s hardly a big draw but, at best, he’s an in-season consideration in most leagues anyway. At this stage of his career, Pulock is likely to land between 20-25 points with maybe 120 hits and 140 blocked shots.

Adam Pelech

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
61	3	18	21	0.34

The Islanders’ best defenceman is not a significant offensive threat, and has battled injuries, but he is a terminally underrated shutdown defender and that makes his spot in the lineup as secure as anyone. Pelech has averaged at least 20 minutes of ice time per game for six straight seasons and that is without hardly any power play role. The unfortunate part is that Pelech has missed 67 games over the past three seasons, so it’s difficult to trust that he is going to suddenly play a full season now. He does have skills that should apply on the offensive end because he’s nimble on his blades and a confident puck-handler who generated a career-best 1.82 shots on goal per game last season. At this stage of his career, though, it’s unlikely that there is going to be a sudden offensive breakthrough. Taking into account that, based on recent precedent, Pelech is likely to miss 15-20 games, he can still be expected to chip in 20 points and might be able to push 100 blocked shots. That’s not terribly appealing from a fantasy perspective, but in real hockey terms, Pelech is a fantastic option on the Islanders’ blueline.

Goal

Ilya Sorokin

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
60	21	29	7	3	.906	2.95

It's a frustrating time to be a New York Islanders fan. While Ilya Sorokin isn't struggling as much as some of the league's other goaltenders thrust into sub-optimal workloads, the Russian-born starter lost his mentor in Semyon Varlamov to a knee injury midway through last season - and Marcus Hogberg, who was next up to bat when Varlamov went down, failed to fill in well enough to help the Islanders get over the hump and into the postseason when all was said and done. Varlamov is expected to be ready for the upcoming season, but at 37-years old with a lengthy injury history, it's hard to tell just how much he'll be able to contribute over the year. That leaves Sorokin with a new potential backup at his side; former Calgary Flames number two David Rittich, who struggled to replicate his strong results from the 2022-23 season last year in his second season with the Los Angeles Kings, will hope to bounce back and return to form in the instance that he's needed for a heavier workload. The Islanders aren't currently sitting in the prime of their window, so there's not as much of a sense of urgency to get their tandem right as there could be, but Sorokin runs the risk of playing his best hockey on a Wild Card team more and more with every passing year. The team will likely hope that Varlamov and Rittich can string together enough games to help the team out without leaving Sorokin to shoulder the entire workload himself once again.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – San Jose rebuild on track – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 22 Mar 2025 12:54:26 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 11: San Jose Sharks left wing William Eklund (72) (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

There are a number of teams that have effectively lost all hope of making the playoffs, but at the time of writing, only one team has been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention: The San Jose Sharks.

It’s the sixth straight year without a playoff berth for San Jose, which is by far the largest stretch of failure in the franchise’s history -- from the inaugural season in 1991-92 through 2018-19, the Sharks had missed the playoffs just six times in total -- and yet there’s a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

Macklin Celebrini has lived up to the hype in his rookie campaign with 21 goals and 50 points through 57 appearances, and the 22-year-old William Eklund is shaping up to be another strong member of the Sharks’ future with 15 goals and 50 points in 64 outings. They’re also seeing some preliminary success from 19-year-old Will Smith, who has provided 13 goals and 35 points in 61 appearances. We should also soon see Cameron Lund make his NHL debut after signing an entry-level contract with the Sharks on Friday. Perhaps the Sharks will try pairing Lund up with Eklund after the 20-year-old Lund supplied 18 goals and 40 points in 37 outings with Northeastern University this year.

In the long run, that young core of forwards might be backed up by 22-year-old netminder Yaroslav Askarov, who has struggled with the rebuilding Sharks (3.10 GAA, .896 save percentage in 13 outings), but has looked solid at the AHL level this campaign (2.52 GAA, .922 save percentage in 19 games).

If some of their other top prospects like Quentin Musty and Sam Dickinson work out, and the Sharks get value out of their four picks in the top two rounds of the 2025 and 2026 drafts, then San Jose could start moving in an upward trajectory quickly.

The only issue is that they have a lot of ground to gain. There’s a good chance the Sharks will finish with 60 or lower points for a third straight campaign. On the one hand, it’s a stretch that’s allowed them to put their full force into rebuilding, but there’s always the danger of falling into the Buffalo Sabres trap, where success always seems to be just around the corner.

An eventful summer might be the key for the Sharks, especially because the Sharks are currently swimming in cap space. They do need to be mindful of the big raises that Eklund, Celebrini and Smith will be due if all goes as hoped, but Celebrini and Smith won’t test the market for the first time until the summer of 2027, while Eklund will remain on his entry-level contract for the 2025-26 campaign, so there is a window here for the Sharks to spend. Their cap flexibility is also made a little easier by the fact that Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s $7 million contract comes off the books in the summer of 2026 and Couture’s $8 million cap hit ends after 2026-27, which will help offset some of those raises.

That will allow them to be aggressive on the UFA market, and it also opens the door for San Jose to potentially leverage some of its picks for veteran players. So, while the Sharks have some largely meaningless games ahead of them, this might end up being the summer of GM Mike Grier.

Buffalo Sabres (Tue vs OTT, Thu vs PIT, Sat @ PHI, Sun @ WAS)

It seems cruel to cite the Sabres as a cautionary tale whenever teams like the Sharks are in the midst of a rebuild, but that’s what they are. With a 27-34-6 record through Thursday’s action, Buffalo sits at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and is on course to miss the playoffs for a 14th straight season. That’s the longest postseason drought in the history of the league.

The Sabres will at least attempt to finish the season on a somewhat positive note. They’ll host Ottawa and Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before heading on the road to visit Philadelphia on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Buffalo’s single biggest issue this campaign has been an inability to keep the puck out of the net. The Sabres rank 29th in goals allowed per game with 3.52. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who managed a solid 2.57 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 54 appearances in 2023-24, hasn’t looked nearly as impressive this campaign, going 23-21-4 with a 3.16 GAA and an .888 save percentage.

It's tempting to say that the team in front of him has been the source of Luukkonen’s woes, and there’s certainly some backing for that assumption. The Sabres rank 29th in xGA/60 at 3.35, per Moneypuck, which implies that the defense has been making life miserable for the goaltenders. However, Luukkonen can’t completely escape blame. He also has a minus-4.6 goals saved above expected, which suggests that he’s been putting forth below average performances, and that’s compounded Buffalo’s already significant defensive issues. That’s also in contrast to 2023-24 when Luukkonen finished with a plus-9.4 goals saved above expected.

Buffalo has already made a long-term commitment to Luukkonen, albeit with a $4.75 million cap hit through 2028-29, which is on the low end for a veteran starter and is expected to get even more reasonable as the cap goes up. If he ends up needing to slide into a backup role, that contract will look like an overpay, but not to the point where it’s an anchor on Buffalo’s cap situation.

The ideal would be if Devon Levi lives up to the promise he showed in the NCAA, but so far the 23-year-old has left plenty to be desired in the NHL, posting a 3.29 GAA and an .894 save percentage through 39 appearances. Goaltenders tend to take longer to develop than any other NHL position, so it would be premature to write him off, but Buffalo assuming that a Luukkonen-Levi duo will eventually lead the franchise to the playoffs might be dangerous -- the potential is there, but it’s far from a sure thing.

That’s a long-term concern for Buffalo. In the short run, the Sabres can at least enjoy Ryan McLeod’s hot streak. He’s recorded a point in five straight games and has been held off the scoresheet just once over his last seven appearances, giving him two goals and seven points in that span. He’s set career highs in goals (16) and points (38) in his first campaign with Buffalo after being acquired from Edmonton, and the 25-year-old should be a solid presence for years to come while primarily centering the third line under ideal circumstances.

Detroit Red Wings (Mon @ UTA, Tue @ COL, Thu vs OTT, Sat vs BOS)

Detroit has won just two of its past 10 games, putting the Red Wings playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. They’ll need to do well next week to avoid slipping out of the postseason picture. The Red Wings will start on the road, facing Utah on Monday and Colorado on Tuesday. Detroit will then return home to host the Senators on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday.

Buffalo’s postseason drought is the one that get the most attention, but Detroit hasn’t been to the postseason since 2016, so there are significant stakes to the Red Wings’ playoff run, especially because they’re not exactly a rebuilding squad anymore. Lucas Raymond (23 goals, 69 points) is still just 22 years old, while Dylan Larkin (28, 60) and Alex DeBrincat (31, 58) are in their late 20s, so Detroit’s core forwards aren’t old, but they’re not emerging prospects either. Two of Detroit’s top four defensemen (Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson) are under 25, but they are supplemented by aging veterans (Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry).

Detroit does still have players that will get better with time. I’m very interested to see what the future holds for 20-year-old rookie Marco Kasper, who has 13 goals, 27 points, 30 PIM and 123 hits in 63 appearances this campaign, but Detroit is beyond the point where it can just shrug and say that short-term losing is a byproduct of the process.

Patrick Kane should be in no mood to be patient at the age of 36. He exploded with a five-point effort March 12 to lead Detroit past Buffalo. Kane also had a three-point showing March 1 versus Columbus, but he’s been inconsistent recently, so don’t look at his 11 points (three goals) in nine games this month and assume he’s red hot. The truth is more nuanced. Unfortunately, Detroit has lacked a steady hand on offense recently, which is a reflection of the team’s recent struggles overall.

Petr Mrazek, who was acquired from Chicago, has been given the opportunity to take over as Detroit’s starter. He’s got the nod in each of Detroit’s past four games, but the results have been mixed. He did post an 18-save shutout over Vegas on Sunday, but he also allowed at least three goals in each of the other three starts. Overall, he has a 2-2-0 record, 2.51 GAA and .901 save percentage in four appearances since joining Detroit. Still, Cam Talbot (2.96 GAA, .900 save percentage) and Alex Lyon (2.77 GAA, .900 save percentage) haven’t given Detroit much to be happy about this campaign, so Mrazek might continue to act as the Red Wings’ primary choice going forward.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue vs NYR, Thu @ COL, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs SJS)

The Kings sit third in the Pacific Division with a 37-21-9 record, but they still have a shot at catching Edmonton (40-24-5) and maybe even Vegas (40-20-8). The Kings will need a solid week to keep those prospects healthy. They’ll start by hosting the Rangers on Tuesday before playing in Colorado on Thursday. Afterward, the Kings will return home to face the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Sharks on Sunday.

The Kings managed just four goals across eight games from March 13-20, so they don’t have any hot forwards. Kevin Fiala is about as close as you can find with a goal and three points over that four-game stretch, but he’s also been held off the scoresheet in seven of his past 12 contests, so his recent play is nothing to get excited over.

Meanwhile, Phillip Danault has just a goal and four points across his past 13. This is shaping up to be a disappointing campaign for him overall. He has just six goals in 66 games with a shooting percentage of 5.5, which is on course to be his lowest ever, excluding the two games he played in 2014-15. He also has no power-play points after recording 20 in 2022-23 and nine in 2023-24. On the one hand, he’s averaging 1:20 with the man advantage, the lowest of his four seasons with LA, which limits his chances, but Danault also hasn’t given the Kings much reason to use him more on the power play, so it’s a bit of a chicken and the egg issue. Either way, this campaign is looking like it’ll go down as a wash for Danault, and he certainly has been part of the issue for the Kings’ recent offensive drought, recording no points over the past four games.

This would be a bad stretch for the Kings, except Darcy Kuemper stopped 81 of 84 shots (.964 save percentage) while starting in those four games, and LA won three of those outings as a result. The 34-year-old goaltender is now 23-9-7 with a 2.13 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 40 appearances. In terms of GAA, this could be the best campaign of his career, excluding 2012-13 when he appeared in just six games. That’s quite a turnaround from 2023-24 (3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage), and it has to be said that Kuemper has a plus-15 goals saved above expected, which ranks 13th in the league, so this isn’t exclusively a case of him benefiting from strong defensively play in front of him -- though, the Kings do have a league-best 2.61 xGA/60, so the defense has been doing its part too.

Minnesota Wild (Mon @ DAL, Tue vs VGK, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs NJD)

Minnesota has a healthy edge in the battle for a wild-card spot, especially after winning its past two games. The Wild will look to build on their recent momentum when they play in Dallas on Monday. Minnesota will also host Vegas, Washington and New Jersey on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Although Minnesota is likely to make the playoffs, the extended absence of Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) has been felt. He’s appeared in just three games dating back to Dec. 27, and Minnesota is a mediocre 18-15-1 over that span while averaging just 2.50 goals per game. By contrast, the Wild went 21-10-4 while averaging 2.94 goals per game over their first 35 contests, which is a stretch when Kaprizov provided 23 goals and 50 points in 34 appearances (missing one game).

To make matters worse, Joel Eriksson Ek hasn’t played since Feb. 22 due to a lower-body injury. Coach John Hynes said Monday that Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek were progressing off ice, per Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News, which is mixed news. Any progress is good progress, but if they’re not skating yet, then they’re probably not close to returning. With so little time left in the campaign, I have to wonder if Minnesota is now simply looking ahead to the playoffs when it comes to Kaprizov. Maybe he’ll get into a few games toward the end of the regular season just to shake off the rust, but that might be all we can hope for.

At least Ryan Hartman is back from his eight-game suspension. He’s recorded three goals and six points in eight appearances since returning from his punishment. He also averaged 16:31 of ice time in that span, up from 15:00, as the Wild deal with injuries.

Minnesota also attempted to get help by acquiring Gustav Nyquist from Nashville on March 1, but that hasn’t moved the needle. Nyquist has registered just two assists in nine outings with Minnesota despite averaging 16:02 since the trade. He might see his role reduced once Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov are ready to return, especially if Nyquist doesn’t start heating up.

To wrap up on a somber note, we’re likely watching the final games of Marc-Andre Fleury. He hasn’t played much recently -- his last start was March 9 -- but the Wild do have a back-to-back coming Monday and Tuesday, so he’ll likely make his 885th career start and 1,048th appearance on one of those two nights. Fleury has solid backup at the age of 40, posting a 12-8-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .904 save percentage in 22 outings this campaign.

New Jersey Devils (Mon vs VAN, Wed @ CHI, Thu @ WPG, Sat @ MIN)

The Devils have been treading water lately, winning four of their past nine games. At this point, they’re unlikely to catch Carolina for the second seed in the Metropolitan Division, but the Devils are still likely to secure the third seed. In the meantime, they’ll start next week at home against Vancouver. The Devils will then hit the road, playing in Chicago on Wednesday, Winnipeg on Friday and Minnesota on Saturday.

Like Minnesota, New Jersey is dealing with some major injuries. Dougie Hamilton (lower body) hasn’t played since March 4 (he logged just 5:15 before exiting that March 4th game), and Jack Hughes (shoulder) was last in the lineup March 2.

New Jersey has gone 4-4-0 without Hamilton and Hughes, including the contest Hamilton was only briefly a part of in contrast to the Devils’ 33-23-6 record across their first 62 games. It’d be natural to assume their middling play lately has been as a result of a drop in offense, similar to what Minnesota has experienced, but the Devils have managed 2.88 goals per game over their last eight games, which isn’t much of a decline from their 2.98 before Hughes’ injury.

Instead, the problem has been at their own end. Jacob Markstrom has a 4.67 GAA and an .817 save percentage across his past five appearances. That leaky play has taken some of the shine out of the heroics from Jesper Bratt (three goals, 10 points in his past five games) and Luke Hughes (one goal, seven points in his past eight appearances).

Jake Allen has looked good, though, winning his past three starts while saving 99 of 103 shots (.961 save percentage). That contrast between New Jersey’s two goaltenders has resulted in Markstrom shifting from being the clear starter to serving in a rotation. I don’t expect that arrangement to persist for the remainder of the campaign, but it’ll probably last until Markstrom finds his footing again.

The Devils certainly have to hope Markstrom comes out of this cold patch sooner rather than later. While there is light at the end of the tunnel for Minnesota on the injury front -- albeit a distance light -- Jack Hughes isn’t expected back until training camp, and Hamilton probably won’t return until the second round at the earliest, provided the Devils make it that far. What they have now is all they can count on. Fortunately for New Jersey, Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier is still a solid forward core, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that trio do well down the stretch, and Luke Hughes is a great alternative to Hamilton on the top power-play unit, which should result in Luke having a strong finish offensively.

New York Islanders (Mon vs CBJ, Wed vs VAN, Sat @ TBL, Sun @ CAR)

The Islanders have won their past three games, pushing them within striking distance of a wild-card spot. New York needs to stay hot next week to close the gap. They’ll start with a home game against Columbus, which is another team in the hunt for an Eastern Conference wild-card position. The Blue Jackets will also play at home against Vancouver on Wednesday before traveling to Tampa Bay on Saturday and Carolina on Sunday.

New York squeaking into the playoffs would be particularly impressive after they traded Brock Nelson to Colorado on March 6 in a where the key pieces back were prospect Calum Ritchie and a first-round pick. It’s not like the Islanders had offense to spare…or so you’d assume, but they’ve been getting help from unexpected sources lately.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau has a goal and six points while Simon Holmstrom has three goals and five points across the Islanders’ seven games since the trade. Both players are usually more complementary pieces when it comes to offense, but they do get on these kinds of hot streaks, making them nice situational pickups during times such as this.

Defensemen Noah Dobson and Anthony DeAngelo have also been major contributors during the same stretch, recording seven and six points, respectively. It’s been interesting that Dobson’s return from injury Feb. 27 hasn’t marginalized DeAngelo’s contributions. Rather than shift DeAngelo to the second power-play unit to make room for Dobson, the Islanders seem comfortable having two defensemen on their top group with the man advantage. DeAngelo has also continued to be used at even strength, averaging 22:18 of ice time in all situations since the return of Dobson.

DeAngelo’s always been a lightning rod for controversy, but it seems he’s found a good spot with the Islanders, and he should continue to be a meaningful contributor for the remainder of the campaign.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ BUF, Thu @ DET, Sat vs CBJ, Sun @ PIT)

The Senators put themselves in a good spot by winning six straight from March 5-15, but they’ve hit a rough patch with back-to-back losses. The Senators still hold the first wild-card spot, but they can’t afford to relax. They have an opportunity to collect some key points next week against teams not currently in a playoff position. Ottawa will play in Buffalo on Tuesday, Detroit on Thursday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Senators will also host the Blue Jackets on Saturday.

Dylan Cozens has worked out pretty nicely in Ottawa since being acquired from Buffalo on March 7. He has three goals and six points in seven appearances with the Senators despite seeing his average playing time drop from 17:13 before the trade to 15:23 since joining the Ottawa. Cozens seems to be settling into a second-line center role with Ottawa, which isn’t surprising. He should get most of his minutes alongside Drake Batherson and David Perron for the remainder of the campaign, though Cozens is also getting work on the top power-play unit and has already provided two goals with the man advantage for Ottawa.

Batherson has been a good player to skate alongside recently. He enjoyed a four-game scoring streak from March 11-18 in which he supplied three goals and six points, but that run was snapped Thursday. The 26-year-old is up to 19 goals and 55 points in 68 outings overall, making it very likely that he’ll reach the 20-goal and 60-point marks for the third straight campaign. In fact, he still has a solid chance of besting his career high of 66 points, which he set last year.

Perron also has been solid recently with four goals and seven points in his past 10 appearances. The 36-year-old missed significant chunks of the campaign, so it’s not too surprising that he was limited to a goal and four points in 11 outings from Jan. 11 (when he returned from a 27-game absence due to back problem) through Feb. 26. Now that the veteran has been able to string together a significant number of games for the first time all season, we’re seeing steady production out of him, and there’s a good chance that’ll continue for the rest of the season, barring another exit from the lineup.

Ottawa’s top line, headlined by Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle, will be the main drivers of the Senators’ offense, but don’t underestimate that second unit of Perron, Cozens and Batherson.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Tue vs PHI, Thu @ SJS, Sat @ NYR, Sun @ LAK)

Toronto has won its past three games, putting behind a rough stretch in which the Maple Leafs won just one of six contests. The Maple Leafs are competing with Florida for the Atlantic Division title. Toronto will look for an edge in that battle next week, beginning with a home game against the Flyers on Tuesday. Toronto will then go on the road, playing in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday.

Even after a run of four goals from March 15-19, Auston Matthews is still on course for career lows with his goal total of 27 and his shooting percentage of 12.4. He’s been limited to 54 games this campaign, and it seems probable he’s playing through something even now, but even Matthews at less than 100 percent is still a high-end option. It helps that he’s pivoted to setting up his teammates a little more to make up for the reduced goal scoring -- he has 34 assists, so in terms of points per 60 minutes, his 3.3 this year is a touch low by his standards, but still well within the range of what’d you’d expect from him.

There’s a good chance he’ll come back strong next season with another 40-plus campaign, and he might even hit 60 for the third time in his career in 2025-26. However, the 27-year-old has run into more injuries problems than one would like over the first half of his career, which makes projecting him somewhat difficult.

Mitch Marner has been the steadier hand in Toronto in terms of season-by-season production. This will be his fourth straight campaign with over 20 goals and 80 points. One thing he’s never managed is reaching the 100-point mark, though he came close in 2021-22 (97) and 2022-23 (99). He might be able to just barely hit it this season after supplying 21 goals and 83 points through 68 appearances.

Marner needs to get hot again to hit the century mark, but right now, he’s not the hottest member of the Leafs. Neither is Matthews, for that matter. That distinction belongs to William Nylander, who has five goals and 15 points in his last 11 appearances. That brings him up to 38 markers and 73 points in 69 outings overall.

Nylander also reached the 600-point career milestone Thursday when he assisted on a goal by John Tavares. That was career point 1,098 for Tavares, and the 34-year-old center went on to collect two more points, making it a milestone night for him as well. Tavares has 29 goals and 60 points in 62 appearances in 2024-25, bringing him up to 213 goals and 479 points in 502 games. If you had told someone immediately after Tavares signed a seven-year, $77 million contract with Toronto that he would decline over the final couple of years, they would have likely believed you. However, while Tavares did show his age somewhat in 2023-24, he’s continuing to produce at a high level even in the final campaign of that deal. It’ll be very interesting to see what kind of contract he commands over the summer, because he still seems to have good hockey left in him.

Toronto’s offense revolves around that core, and unfortunately no one outside of it steps up for more than brief periods. Matthew Knies is Toronto’s next best producer with 25 goals and 45 points, but he’s going through a mediocre stretch in which he’s supplied a goal and four points over his past eight games. Max Domi and Bobby McMann have been similarly meh lately, each contributing two goals and four points over the same eight-game span. All three are worth monitoring as pickup options during hot streaks, but they can’t be counted on to put up strong numbers over a longer period.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Stamkos busts out of slump, Rakell is rolling, Hughes steps up for the Devils, lots of rookies are starting to make their mark, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 14:39:46 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Steven Stamkos busts out of his slump, Rickard Rakell is rolling, Luke Hughes steps up for the Devils, lots of rookies are starting to make their mark, and much more!

SUNRISE, FL - NOVEMBER 07: Nashville Predators Steven Stamkos (91) looks on during the game between the Nashville Predators and the Florida Panthers on Thursday November 07, 2024 at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla.(Photo by Chris Arjoon/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Coming out of a disastrous stretch during which he was held without a point for 13 straight games, Steven Stamkos has pulled out of that slump in a big way. He has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games since that drought. He is skating on a line with Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Evangelista, which ought to be good enough to keep scoring more consistently down the stretch.

#2 It’s easy to overlook anything positive happening for a team whose season is going sideways, but it should be noted that Rickard Rakell is having a great season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The 31-year-old forward is skating in a prime spot on Sidney Crosby’s wing, and has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He is up to 30 goals for the season, the first time that he has hit that mark since 2017-2018.

#3 Devils defenceman Dougie Hamilton is out for the rest of the regular season and that opens up a prime opportunity for Luke Hughes, who has nine points (1 G, 8 A) while averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in his past nine games. He is going to quarterback the first power play in New Jersey and that should make Hughes a valuable commodity for fantasy managers the rest of the way. Hughes recorded 47 points as a rookie last season, with 25 on the power play. This season, he has 31 points, with nine points on the power play.

#4 The fifth pick in the 2022 Draft, Cutter Gauthier is hitting his groove while skating on a line with Mason McTavish and Sam Colangelo. Gauthier has put up 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 25 shots on goal in his past 11 games even though he is averaging fewer than 13 minutes of ice time per game. Colangelo has 39 points (20 G, 19 A) in 42 AHL games since coming out of Western Michigan last year, and since he was called up to the Ducks in late February, he has delivered six points (5 G, 1 A) in eight games, though Colangelo missed Friday’s win over Nashville and is currently day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

#5 After a slow start to the season, San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith has really come into his own in the second half of the season. In his past 20 games, Smith has 20 points (7 G, 13 A) with 38 shots on goal. He has played nearly 17 minutes per game over that span and is having success skating on a line with veteran centre Alexander Wennberg and rookie winger Collin Graf. Wennberg has eight assists in his past eight games and Graf has five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past five games.

#6 Florida Panthers rookie winger Mackie Samoskevich is making the most of the opportunity presented to him by injuries to Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand, a pair of star wingers who are out of the lineup and might be out until the start of the playoffs. Samoskevich has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal in his past eight games. He is averaging 15:35 of ice time per game, which is a significant bump from the 11:49 per game he had been averaging before that. Not only is Samoskevich skating with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues at evens, but he is getting a shot on Florida’s first power play unit, so a prime opportunity for Samoskevich to show that he is a bona fide top six winger in the NHL.

#7 With Brock Nelson gone to Colorado, Jean-Gabriel Pageau figures to have a significant role for the Islanders for the rest of the season. It’s not like he has been buried on the depth chart this season anyway, but Pageau does have seven points (2 G, 5 A) while averaging 17:35 of ice time per game in his past seven games. Pageau also tends to offer more value for fantasy managers because he is a hitter – he is tied for 24th among centres with 130 hits this season. Pageau is skating on a line with Anders Lee and Simon Holmstrom, which is solid enough to continue his level of production.

#8 As the Vancouver Canucks battle for their playoff lives, they have been leaving heavily on blueliner Filip Hronek, who has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past five games and Hronek has been playing nearly 25 minutes per game, hitting a season high of 28:07 in Thursday’s 4-3 win at Calgary. Quinn Hughes returned to the Canucks lineup in that game, which cuts into Hronek’s time on the top power play unit, if not his overall ice time.

#9 Utah Hockey Club centre Barrett Hayton can get overlooked because he is not the driver on the top line, but that doesn’t mean his results should be ignored. Since the NHL has returned from the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, Hayton has produced nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 31 shots on goal in 10 games. That shot rate is encouraging, as if the fact that Hayton is averaging 18:45 of ice time per game in that stretch. He is up to 38 points (17 G, 21 A) for the season, putting him within five points of his career high.

#10 The Chicago Blackhawks have called up defenceman Artyom Levshunov, the second pick in last summer’s draft. The 19-year-old right shot blueliner had 22 points (5 G, 17 A) in 50 AHL games before getting promoted, and he is getting a prime opportunity in Chicago. Levshunov is averaging more than 20 minutes per game in his first two NHL contests and, with Seth Jones traded to Florida, the rookie is quarterbacking the Blackhawks’ first power play unit.

#11 St. Louis Blues rookie Zachary Bolduc is hitting his groove. In his past 12 games, Bolduc has produced 10 points (7 G, 3 A) with 23 shots on goal. He is skating on the third line with Mathieu Joseph and Oskar Sundqvist but is now getting first unit power play time so the 2021 first-round pick could be in decent position to produce down the stretch. Staying in St. Louis, left winger Jake Neighbours has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past eight games, but he also has just seven shots on goal in those eight games, so tread carefully. When players have offensive spikes that are not supported by shot production, it should offer some reason to be cautious, because it’s difficult to sustain production if the underlying numbers aren’t there. Neighbours does have the advantage of skating with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich at even strength.

#12 Before getting hurt in mid-December, Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev had 30 points (15 G, 15 A) in 31 games. He struggled to generate much offensively upon returning to action in mid-January but has rallied to put up seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past eight games. He is currently on the fourth line, with Brett Howden and Keegan Kolesar, so that puts a damper on offensive optimism, but the Golden Knights are not afraid to shuffle their wingers and Barbashev is still playing nearly 16 minutes per game.

#13 Offense comes and goes for Blackhawks winger Ilya Mikheyev, but he has hit a good stretch lately, putting up 10 points (6 G, 4 A) with 24 shots on goal in his past 12 games. Playing with Ryan Donato and Teuvo Teravainen is a quality opportunity for him, and with 26 points, he is within six points of his career high, so he should reach that.

#14 When the Penguins demoted Tristan Jarry to the American Hockey League in January, he had a .884 save percentage in 22 games. He played a dozen games in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and had a .908 save percentage, which wasn’t necessarily awe-inspiring, but enough to get called back up to the NHL and he has been in fine form, posting a .941 save percentage in his first three starts since returning. Six points out of a playoff spot, the Penguins are longshots for the postseason, but if Jarry is going to play like this, then maybe they have a chance.

#15 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto is elevating his production in the second half of the season. In his past 13 games, Pinto has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) with 29 shots on goal. Of his 28 points this season, only two have come via the power play, so Pinto does his damage at even strength, and he has a good thing going with wingers Michael Amadio and Ridly Greig.

#16 With Mikael Backlund week-to-week with an upper-body injury, Yegor Sharangovich has moved the middle on the Flames’ second line. It has been a disappointing season for Sharangovich, who has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and just one goal in his past eight games but skating on a line with Joel Farabee and Blake Coleman could be a better opportunity for him. Sharangovich had career highs with 31 goals and 59 points last season, so this dip in production is disappointing, but maybe a strong finish can set him up for better things next season.

#17 When star defencemen are injured, it can present an opportunity for players to step into a bigger role. The Rangers’ Adam Fox is out of the lineup with an upper-body injury and Zac Jones has moved to the Blueshirts’ top power play unit. Jones has three assists in his past six games. In Nashville, with Roman Josi out, Nick Blankenburg has taken on top power play responsibilities, and he also has three assists in his past six games. Neither Jones nor Blankenburg would be considered must add for fantasy managers, but anyone getting top unit power play time is worth tracking.

#18 After missing more than three months due to a pelvic injury, Seattle Kraken winger Jordan Eberle took a few games to get going, but has put up eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past seven games. He is skating with Chandler Stephenson and Eeli Tolvanen at even strength and, probably more importantly, Eberle is also getting first unit power play time for the Kraken.

#19 Even with injuries hitting the Minnesota Wild lineup, team captain Jared Spurgeon has been quietly productive when he is in the game. In his past 18 games, Spurgeon has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) and 24 shots on goal. He has also blocked more than two shots per game in that span, so there is some peripheral statistical value to be had from the steady veteran who continues to deliver excellent play-driving numbers for the Wild.

#20 Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett has been struggling in March, managing just one goal in seven games. More troubling for Tippett, who has proven to be a quality shot generator, is that he has just 11 shots on goal in those seven games. He is still playing more than 16 minutes per game and is on a line with veteran centre Sean Couturier and star rookie Matvei Michkov, but it does not seem to be working right now. Other players struggling to score in March include Anthony Cirelli (0 points in 7 games), Logan Cooley (0 points in 6 games), Filip Chytil (1 point in 6 games), and Carter Verhaeghe (1 point in 6 games).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Marner and Tavares Leading Maple Leafs, Ducks Battling and More

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Nov 2024 15:51:24 +0000

_{TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) skates with the puck during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on December 3rd, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)}

In fantasy play, we try to look for any advantage we can, so it’s always helpful if there are reliable factors that we can consider that might impact a game's outcome. For example, all else being equal, a rested team should have an advantage over a tired one, right? That’s an easy assumption to make, but I wondered how reliable a factor that was, so I looked into it.

Teams on the second half of a back-to-back have a 31-40-6 record this season, but that’s a fairly small sample size for this kind of thing, so let’s take the results of every game dating back to the 2005-06 campaign. Looking at that, the record for teams playing on no rest is 3,560-3,394-943. If you count overtime/shootout losses among the defeats, that’s a .451 winning percentage, which is statistically relevant, but not dramatic.

What about playing on the road? That’s another obvious disadvantage, but how serious of a burden is it? Dating back to 2005-06, the road team has a 10,460-9,834-2,698 record, which is a .455 winning percentage. In other words, playing on the road is only a slightly smaller burden than playing on no rest. While we’re at it, let’s combine the two: A road team playing on no rest has a winning percentage of just .425 (2,298-2,464-640). So if you really want to bank on a team underperforming relative to their average, then taking a team on the second half of a back-to-back on the road is the way to go.

In the reverse, is there an ideal amount of rest for a team? Teams that had one day off between games have a winning percentage of .508 (12,265-9,101-2,759), two days is .521 (4,368-3,051-962), three days is .501 (1,106-845-255) and four or more days is .493 (1,034-822-242), so two days rest between games is the sweet spot, but difference in those winning percentages isn’t significant.

Ultimately, believing a team on the road or a tired squad will underperform is going to prove to be a fair assessment often, but it’s not a magic bullet. By the same token, key injuries don’t always lead to the results we might anticipate. The Avalanche certainly struggled early in the campaign when they had far more than their fair share of players on the shelf, but recently, the Maple Leafs have been defying expectations.

At the time of writing, Toronto is now 6-1-0 without Auston Matthews this season. On Wednesday, Toronto was missing Max Domi (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (groin), David Kampf (lower body), Max Pacioretty (lower body) and Ryan Reaves (suspension) in addition to Matthews (upper body), and Toronto still managed to beat Vegas 3-0. To be fair, the Golden Knights had injuries of their own at the time of the contest, most notably to Mark Stone (lower body), but they were the healthier team and a top-tier contender, so the Maple Leafs continuing to excel under those circumstances is impressive.

Mitch Marner has been a major factor in Toronto’s continued success, providing six goals and 26 points through 20 appearances, and the Vegas victory was his third straight multi-point showing. He’s never reached the 100-point milestone before, but he’s come close and might finally hit that mark this campaign. John Tavares has also stepped up recently, supplying four goals and eight points across six appearances, giving him nine goals and 19 points through 19 outings.

Both are also playing on an expiring contract, and there are questions about their future with the team. The lack of playoff success has led to frustration regarding Toronto’s model of building the squad around four extremely expensive forwards. Going into the campaign, there was an assumption that at the least, the 34-year-old Tavares would take a significant pay cut from his current $11 million cap hit in his next contract given his declining production. That might still happen, but his play so far this season suggests that talk of his decline might have been overstated, and, especially with the cap rising, he might still be able to command a sizable payday. Then there’s Marner, who presumably expects a raise from his $10.903 million cap hit and will likely get it with Toronto or elsewhere.

The Maple Leafs certainly have some big front office questions to answer, in the coming months, but at least on the ice, things seem to be going well for now despite the challenges.

Anaheim Ducks

Mon vs SEA, Wed @ SEA, Fri vs LAK, Sun vs OTT

The NHL schedule next week contains some very heavy dates: There will be 11 games Monday, 15 on Wednesday, 14 on Friday and 12 on Saturday. Due to that, a lot of teams are playing four times despite the league taking Thursday off for American Thanksgiving.

Every team featured will be playing in four games, starting with the Ducks, who will host Seattle on Monday, play in Seattle on Wednesday and then return to Anaheim for contests against the Kings on Friday and Senators on Sunday.

The Ducks were also a team I highlighted last week and noted the squad’s underwhelming offense, but going into Friday’s action, Anaheim is on a three-game winning streak in which it’s tallied a combined 13 goals.

Trevor Zegras has gotten in on the action, supplying a goal and three points over that span, which doubles his season point total to six. We discussed last week that he had been dealing with some bad puck luck and has been playing a more complete game despite his offensive woes, so perhaps everything is starting to come together for him. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate, especially because Zegras continues to serve in a top-six capacity.

If you’re looking for the hottest forward on the Ducks, though, then Brett Leason is your man. He didn’t start the campaign was much of a role, even being a healthy scratch in five of six games from Oct. 27-Nov. 8, but he’s taken off with two goals and seven points across his last five outings. Leason has also averaged 15:00 of ice time, including 1:28 with the man advantage, across his past four appearances, so he’s finally getting a solid opportunity. The 25-year-old still isn’t likely to be a major offensive force for long -- you'd have to go back to his junior days to find the last time he was a major scorer -- but he’s providing some solid short-term value.

On the blueliner, Olen Zellweger has two goals and four points over his last three appearances, bringing him up to four goals and eight points across 17 outings in 2024-25. The 21-year-old is serving on the top power-play unit, but the Ducks rank 27th with the man advantage, converting just 15.3 percent of the time, so it’s not as good of a role as it could be. Still, Zellweger should at least breach the 30-point mark this year as long as he stays healthy.

Boston Bruins

Tue vs. VAN, Wed @ NYI, Fri vs. PIT, Sun vs. MTL

After three straight losses to drop their record to 8-9-3, the Bruins fired head coach Jim Montgomery and named Joe Sacco as the interim bench boss. Boston’s first game under Sacco saw the Bruins outshoot Utah 31-21 en route to a 1-0 victory. Joonas Korpisalo was in net for the shutout, improving to 4-2-1 with a 2.38 GAA and .911 save percentage in eight appearances. Given Jeremy Swayman’s struggles -- he has a 5-7-2 record, 3.47 GAA and .884 save percentage in 14 outings -- it'll be interesting to see if Sacco leans on Korpisalo more than his predecessor.

Next week, though, both goaltenders will likely see use given the packed schedule. The Bruins will host the Canucks on Tuesday, play on the road against the Islanders on Wednesday and conclude the week with home tilts versus the Penguins and Canadiens on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Swayman has been part of the problem in Boston, but the Bruins also rank 31st offensively with just 2.33 goals per game. David Pastrnak continues to lead the charge with eight goals and 18 points through 21 outings, but he’s the only player with at least 15 points. Meanwhile, Brad Marchand (five goals, 14 points) and Elias Lindholm (three goals, 10 points) are the only other two Bruins who have hit the double-digit mark. To put that into context, 200 players have at least 10 points through Thursday’s action, which averages out to 6.25 players per team, so Boston is far behind the curve in terms of its scoring depth.

He's probably not the answer, but I am interested to see if Sacco tries to get Tyler Johnson into games. The 34-year-old forward has appeared in just five contests in 2024-25, averaging 13:31 of ice time in those outings. Although he hasn’t recorded a point this year, Johnson has proved in the past to be a decent secondary scorer, so maybe he could do some damage from the third line if given a chance to get into a rhythm by playing regularly.

Outside of that, though, the Bruins just really need more out of players who were already getting opportunities. The issue for Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha isn’t a lack of ice time, it’s just that they haven’t put up points with any regularity. Coyle has just four goals and an assist through 21 outings after recording 60 points in 2023-24. Zacha has three goals and seven points, but after showing some life from Nov. 7-12 (two goals and four points in three games), he’s on a four-game point drought.

Maybe the answer is simply to just some forward groupings and stick with it for a while. Coyle’s most common linemates this campaign are Marchand and Morgan Geekie, but that trio has only shared the ice for 11.9 percent of Coyle’s even-strength minutes. That’s a lot of line mixing, which might lead to an inability to develop chemistry. It’s something to monitor as we see what Sacco’s plans are to reverse the Bruins’ fortunes.

Los Angeles Kings

Mon @ SJS, Wed vs. WPG, Fri @ ANA, Sat vs. OTT

The Kings will start the week on the road against San Jose on Monday but return home to host the Jets on Wednesday. LA will then play in Anaheim on Friday and host the Senators on Saturday.

The Kings have seen modest success with their 10-7-3 record, but they have dropped three of their past four games, recording just seven goals over that stretch.

Quinton Byfield is among the cold forwards with only an assist across his past five outings. He has two goals and nine points through 20 appearances overall. Interestingly, he hasn’t recorded a single point on the power play in 2024-25 despite averaging a solid 2:07 of ice time with the man advantage. LA does rank 29th in power-play conversions at 14.3 percent, so that is an obvious factor, but you’d still expect at least some production there. Byfield’s 5.3 shooting percent is also a sharp drop from his 12.4 percent in 2023-24 -- he finished that campaign with 20 goals and 55 points -- so the young forward might have been somewhat unlucky through the first quarter of the season. Don’t be surprised if his production ticks up as the campaign progresses.

Philip Danault also has struggled to find the back of the net, tallying a single goal through 20 appearances, though he does have nine assists. His 3.2 shooting percentage is far below his 12.3 average from 2021-22 through 2023-24, so Danault is another LA forward who could enjoy an increase in production.

At the other end of the spectrum, Adrian Kempe is red hot, supplying four goals over his past three games (LA has totaled just six total goals in that span), bringing him up to nine markers and 18 points through 20 appearances. Even there, though, Kempe has just three power-play points. LA did far better with the man advantage in 2023-24, ranking 12th with a 22.6 success rate, so these players could see an increase in special-teams points.

Minnesota Wild

Mon vs. WPG, Wed @ BUF, Fri vs. CHI, Sat vs. NSH

One team that’s had no offensive issues -- or any issues, really -- is Minnesota. The Wild have won three of their past four games, improving to 13-3-3. They’ll look to keep the good times rolling when they host another high-end squad in Winnipeg on Monday. From there, Minnesota will play in Buffalo on Wednesday before returning home to play the Blackhawks on Friday and the Predators on Saturday.

Filip Gustavsson continues to be a key part of the Wild’s success with his 9-3-2 record, 2.07 GAA and .926 save percentage through 14 appearances. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in each of his past five starts. Marc-Andre Fleury, by contrast, isn’t turning heads with his play, but the 39-year-old has been a capable backup with a 4-0-1 record, 2.76 GAA and .904 save percentage in five starts.

Up front, Kirill Kaprizov is on a seven-game scoring streak with six goals and 13 points in that span, bringing him up to 13 goals and 34 points through 19 appearances in 2024-25. Even with his $9 million annual cap hit, he’s providing tremendous value. Kaprizov’s contract runs through 2025-26, but by the time it expires, the Wild will be in a far better cap position because Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyouts will be far smaller factors. The Wild have roughly $14.7 million in dead cap space this year, but Suter and Parise will generate a combined $1,666,666 in dead cap space annually from 2025-26 through 2028-29 before coming off the books entirely.

Paying Kaprizov top dollar when the time comes makes sense given his reliability as a top offensive threat. Someone who doesn’t factor onto the scoresheet nearly as regularly is Frederick Gaudreau, but the 31-year-old has been playing like an elite recently, providing four goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances. Gaudreau is worth having in your lineup while he’s this hot, but don’t expect it to last, and keep in mind that even with his recent rise in production, he’s still serving in just a third-line capacity. He is also on the second power-play unit instead of the top one and hasn’t gotten a point yet with the man advantage.

New Jersey Devils

Mon vs. NSH, Wed vs. STL, Fri @ DET, Sat vs. WSH

We’ve already touched on a lot of players who haven’t put up noteworthy power-play numbers, so let’s shift to New Jersey, which ranks second with the man advantage with a 31.8 percent success rate.

The Devils will host the Predators on Monday and the Blues on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Detroit on Friday before returning home to face the Capitals on Saturday.

New Jersey’s power play and offense in general is certainly part of the reason the squad is 13-7-2. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton has played a significant role in that, providing two goals and 16 points, including seven with the man advantage, through 22 appearances. He was held off the scoresheet for the first six games of 2024-25 but has since recorded at least a point in 13 of 16 appearances.

Hamilton wasn’t much of a factor in 2023-24 due to injury, which led to Luke Hughes serving on the top power-play unit last year. Hamilton’s return to health means Hughes is averaging just 1:04 with the man advantage in 2024-25 and that’s eaten into the young blueliner’s production. The 21-year-old Hughes also missed New Jersey’s first nine outings because of a shoulder problem, which likely put him behind the curve. All this has led to him recording just two assists through 13 outings. Hughes might start to do better as he gets into a rhythm, but this is shaping up to be a sophomore slump campaign.

His elder brother, Jack Hughes, is doing just fine, though. He already has eight goals and 25 points through 22 appearances. The older Hughes is also red hot with six helpers across his past three outings, including five on the power play.

Of course, the Devils did just fine last season too and still missed the playoffs. The difference this year has been improved goaltending. Jacob Markstrom isn’t in Vezina Trophy contention, but he’s holding his own nicely with a 9-5-1 record, 2.54 GAA and .907 save percentage through 15 appearances. Jake Allen is also playing an arguably underrated role as the backup, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.30 GAA and .916 save percentage in seven starts. Especially in a busy week, like the one upcoming, having two solid goaltenders is a huge luxury.

New York Islanders

Mon vs. DET, Wed vs. BOS, Fri @ WSH, Sat vs. BUF

The Islanders have two solid goaltenders too, though it hasn’t always felt that way this season. Ilya Sorokin has more-or-less fulfilled his end of the bargain with a 2.64 GAA and a .914 save percentage through 12 appearances, but Semyon Varlamov struggled early in the campaign. He has stabilized since, but that early damage has left him with a .903 save percentage, although his GAA has improved to a respectable 2.60.

Either way, it’s the offense that’s really the problem with the Islanders, and that’s what they’ll need more of next week. New York will host the Red Wings on Monday and the Bruins on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Washington on Friday and conclude the week with a home game versus the Sabres.

The Islanders have managed just four goals over their past three games and weirdly, Pierre Engvall scored two of them. Engvall had a three-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 14-19, but the 28-year-old finished with just 10 goals and 28 points in 74 outings last season and has just five points through 12 outings in 2024-25 even after accounting for his recent hot streak, so don’t expect much from him going forward.

The player the Islanders really need to step up is Bo Horvat, but he’s been held off the scoresheet in five of his past six appearances, leaving him with five goals and 14 points through 20 outings. Those are abysmal numbers given his $8.5 million cap hit, but to be far, he’d usually get to play alongside Mathew Barzal, who hasn’t been in the lineup since Oct. 30 due to an upper-body injury. However, Barzal’s original timetable was 4-6 weeks, and there hasn’t been much in the way of updates, so you shouldn’t count on Horvat getting help from Barzal in the upcoming week.

Anders Lee is sometimes a great linemate. He has seven goals and 13 points in 20 outings in 2024-25, but he’s also streaky and is presently cold, having been held off the scoresheet in each of the Islanders’ past three games.

Then there’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who highlights the Islanders’ lack of depth. The 32-year-old forward is a fine forward, but he’s never recorded more than 43 points in a single campaign, so the fact that he’s on the top line and first power-play unit is far less than ideal. He has five goals and nine points through 20 appearances in 2024-25.

Horvat and Lee might heat up again, but the Islanders’ overall offensive situation isn’t likely to get a lot better until Barzal comes back.

New York Rangers

Mon vs. STL, Wed @ CAR, Fri @ PHI, Sat vs. MTL

The Islanders’ rivals, the Rangers, appear to be in a far better position. They have a 12-5-1 record and will look to build on that next week. The Rangers will host the Blues on Monday, play in Carolina on Wednesday and Philadelphia on Friday and finish the week by hosting the Canadiens on Saturday.

Artemi Panarin continues to be the Rangers’ top forward with 10 goals and 24 points in 18 appearances in 2024-25, but offensive depth has been a big part of the Rangers’ formula. They have eight players who have hit double digits in points: Panarin, Adam Fox, Alexis Lafreniere, Will Cuylle, Mika Zibanejad, Reilly Smith, Kaapo Kakko and Vincent Trocheck. As noted before, the average team has 6.25 players who have hit that milestone. On top of that, New York has two players -- Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil -- who are sitting at nine points.

Among those who have been at the forefront of the Rangers’ attack, Cuylle is arguably the biggest pleasant surprise. The 22-year-old has seven goals and 15 points through 18 appearances. He established himself as a regular with the team last campaign but was in the lineup primarily because of his gritty play, finishing the 2023-24 regular season with 13 goals, 21 points, 56 PIM and 249 hits. Cuylle has continued to utilize his size, dishing out 75 hits this season (he ranks fifth in that category), but he’s adding an offensive element to his game.

What makes it even more impressive is that he’s averaging a modest 13:50 of ice time and is rarely used with the man advantage -- although that might be changing as he has spent the past two games on the second unit. Among those averaging under 14 minutes, Cuylle leads the league in points, ahead of Carolina’s Eric Robinson (five goals, 13 points).

One word of caution, though: Cuylle’s 21.9 shooting percentage is likely unsustainable.

Seattle Kraken

Mon @ ANA, Wed vs. ANA, Fri @ SJS, Sat vs. SJS

The Kraken has a fairly easy schedule next week. They have a set of games against Anaheim on Monday and Wednesday followed by one against the Sharks on Friday and Saturday. In both cases, Seattle is on the road for the first half of the set and at home for the second.

Defenseman Vince Dunn (upper body) might end up returning at some point during those four games, but the status of forward Jordan Eberle (lower body) is less clear. By the time you read this, though, that might change. Kraken coach Dan Bylsma told Scott Malone on Friday that there would be an update later in the day, but at the time of writing, that update hadn’t arrived yet.

Dunn is likely to serve on the top four and first power-play unit when healthy, which might eat into Brandon Montour’s power-play time and result in Ryker Evans losing his spot on the second unit. However, just three of Montour’s 13 points and two of Evans’ 11 have come with the man advantage anyway, so that change shouldn’t have a dramatic impact on either blueliner’s production. Dunn’s return might help Seattle’s overall power play a bit, which sits at 23rd with a 16.4 conversion rate, which would modestly boost the value of Seattle’s top forwards.

Either way, Joey Daccord is likely to continue to be the key to Seattle’s success. He has a 9-3-1 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in 13 appearances in 2024-25, putting him in the very early conversation for the Vezina Trophy. Daccord did rank fourth in save percentage (.916) and fifth in GAA (2.46) among goaltenders who logged at least 30 games last season, but his 19-18-11 record kept him well outside of the award conversation. If Seattle continues to provide him with at least some support this year -- the Kraken’s 2.85 goals per game isn’t magical, but it is a step up from 2.61 in 2023-24 -- then Daccord’s a fair bet to get over 30 wins this campaign, especially with Philipp Grubauer not exactly demanding a bigger share of the workload with his 1-6-0 record, 3.11 GAA and .881 save percentage through seven outings in 2024-25.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi, Beniers, Roslovic receiving prime opportunities

Scott Cullen — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 22:11:32 +0000

Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is riding high with the Jets, Matty Beniers is bouncing back in Seattle, Jack Roslovic has a prime opportunity in Carolina, Rickard Rakell has decent linemates in Pittsburgh, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Following a slow start to the season, when he had just three assists in his first six games, Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi has picked up his pace and has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. The Jets are rolling, with a 13-1 record, and Vilardi is riding high on the top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in addition to skating on the Jets’ top power play unit. The key for Vilardi is staying healthy. He had 77 points (45 G, 32 A) in 110 games over the previous two seasons, but he has never played more than 63 games in a season.

#2 Seattle Kraken centre Matty Beniers endured a tough sophomore season in 2023-2024, finishing with 37 points (15 G, 22 A) in 77 games. He started slowly this season, too, managing just one assist through seven games, but he has started to find his range and has delivered eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. The issue to be wary of with Beniers is his relatively low shot rate. Among the 227 forwards that have played at least 1000 five-on-five minutes since the start of last season, Beniers ranks 194th with 5.60 shots on goal per 60 minutes and it requires an excellent shooting percentage to sustain production at that rate.

#3 A leading candidate in the Cy Young race, with nine goals and one assist, Carolina Hurricanes right winger Jack Roslovic is making the most of his opportunity to skate on Carolina’s top line. He has seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past five games, and the opportunity to play with talented linemates Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov gives Roslovic a better opportunity to remain productive. Roslovic had a career-high 45 points (22 G, 23 A) in 2021-2022, but could have a decent shot at surpassing that total this season.

#4 Even as the season appears to be getting away from the Pittsburgh Penguins, veteran winger Rickard Rakell is a reliable contributor, and one that is available in quite a few leagues. Across his past 13 games, Rakell has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 39 shots on goal, and he is skating on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, as the Penguins load up, trying to shuffle the deck and get better results.

#5 Veteran New York Islanders right winger Kyle Palmieri is stepping up, and it’s desperately needed on a team that is dealing with injuries to Anthony Duclair and now Mathew Barzal at forward (as well as Adam Pelech on defence). In his past eight games, Palmieri has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal while playing more than 18 minutes per game. Palmieri has been a productive winger for a long time and recorded the second 30-goal season of his career in 2023-2024, so he is more than capable of fulfilling an offensive role for the Isles.

#6 While the San Jose Sharks are hoping that their rookie centres Will Smith and Macklin Celebrini will be able to handle scoring responsibilities this season, they are getting some added offence down the middle from Alex Wennberg, the veteran pivot who signed in San Jose as a free agent. Wennberg had no points in seven games to start the season but followed that up with seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in the next eight games, averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time in that stretch.

#7 With injuries forcing the Islanders to move bodies around, they have taken veteran centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau and dropped him on right wing with Anders Lee and Bo Horvat, on what is the Islanders’ top line. He has three goals and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and Pageau has the added benefit of being a consistent hitter. He has delivered 30 hits in 14 games, which makes him a viable fantasy contributor now that he is in a role to provide offensive production, too.

#8 The Washington Capitals have moved winger Aliaksei Protas to the top line, skating with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, and it’s paying off. The monstrous winger, listed at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, has eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past five games and while he only has seven shots on goal, Protas already has five goals on the season after scoring six in 78 games last season. Protas’ absurdly high on-ice shooting percentage suggests that he will not continue at a point-per-game pace, but if he is going to keep getting regular shifts on the top line, his offensive contributions could still be significant.

#9 Buffalo Sabres winger JJ Peterka, 22, continues his upward trend. He picked up an assist in Thursday’s 6-1 rout of the New York Rangers, giving him 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. He is in a prime spot, skating on Buffalo’s top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, and Peterka is on his way to becoming a star winger in his own right. He has been on a steady climb, both in the NHL and in international play, with all arrows pointing in the right direction for a skilled forward who keeps the puck moving the right way when he is on the ice.

#10 Los Angeles Kings winger Alex Laferriere has taken a massive step forward in his second NHL season. Even after moving down the depth chart, he has continued to produce for the Kings, delivering eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Laferriere has 25 hits in 15 games, enhancing his value for fantasy managers. He is skating with Quinton Byfield and Warren Foegele, but Laferriere is also getting first-unit power play time which his even-strength linemates are not receiving.

#11 The Colorado Avalanche have been decimated by injuries but got a rare piece of good news on the injury front this week when winger Artturi Lehkonen returned to the lineup for the first time since having offseason shoulder surgery. Lehkonen has two points (1 G, 1 A) in two games, but the Avalanche’s depleted forward ranks have also resulted in Lehkonen playing a ton. He has averaged 23:48 of ice time per game in his first two games of the season and is in the prime position, skating on left wing with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Dmitry Orlov has a ceiling on what his fantasy value might be since he does not play on the power play, thereby limiting his offensive production. However, the Hurricanes are such a juggernaut at even strength that Orlov should not be ignored, either. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) and nine shots on goal in his past four games, upping his total point production to eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 12 games. It helps that his ice time has jumped by more than two minutes per game compared to last season, his first year in Carolina.

#13 Second year Seattle Kraken defenceman Ryker Evans is stepping into a bigger role, especially while veteran Vince Dunn is injured. In his past eight games, Evans has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal, while averaging 22:15 of ice time per game. In 140 AHL games, counting regular season and playoffs, Evans has contributed 95 points (17 G, 78 A), so he is very capable of producing offensively if given the opportunity. With Brandon Montour and Dunn on the roster in Seattle, he may have to wait a bit, or at least take advantage of the opportunities when they fall to him.

#14 Former Seattle Kraken and current Chicago Blackhawks forward Ryan Donato is earning a bigger role, including first unit power play time and even strength time on the wing with Connor Bedard. In his past seven games, Donato has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal. He isn’t going to keep scoring on 21.2 percent of his shots, as he has so far this season, but that shot rate is an encouraging sign for Donato to produce more than he did in 2021-2022 when he had career highs with 16 goals and 31 goals.

#15 St. Louis Blues defenceman Colton Parayko has added some offensive flair to his game early in the season. In the past nine games, Parayko has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal while averaging 24:30 of ice time per game. While he has been on the Blues’ second power play unit, he does not have any points with the man advantage so his nine even strength points this season is the same as Sidney Crosby and David Pastrnak, among many others.

#16 Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies obviously has a prime spot on the Leafs’ top line, but he is producing to keep his spot. In his past 10 games, Knies has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 19 shots on goal. For fantasy managers, he also brings a physical dimension, with 34 hits in 14 games this season, making him more valuable than merely his point production would indicate.

#17 San Jose Sharks rookie centre Macklin Celebrini has returned to action and while he has only played three games thus far, his production – including three goals an assist and 12 shots on goal – is eye popping. He has even been better than break-even on draws in the past two games after losing 13 of 14 faceoffs in his NHL debut. Skating on a line with veterans Mikael Granlund and Tyler Toffoli, there is ample reason to believe that Celebrini will be a Calder Trophy frontrunner in short order.

#18 Veteran Buffalo Sabres winger Jason Zucker has moved around the lineup a bit, but after being held off the scoresheet for the first three games of the season, he has put up 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his past 11 games. He is skating on Buffalo’s third line right now, with Ryan McLeod and Jordan Greenway, but Zucker also gets first unit power play time, so he has a path to continuing that production.

#19 In the previous two seasons, Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins had a .889 save percentage in 71 games, managing just 20 wins in that time.This season, Merzlikins is splitting starts with Danil Tarasov, but Merzlikins has a .910 save percentage, compared to Tarasov’s .860, so there is an opportunity for Merzlikins to earn a greater share of the starts for a surprisingly competitive Blue Jackets team.

#20 Detroit Red Wings netminder Cam Talbot is stepping up as the much-needed starter. Earlier in the season, he had a 42-save shutout against Nashville and followed that by giving up five goals on 19 shots against the New York Rangers. Since those starts, however, he has a .941 save percentage in his past four starts, giving him a .929 save percentage in seven games this season. Talbot is 37 and may not be able to handle a starter’s workload over the full season, but he had a .925 save percentage through January 2 last season (before finishing with a .903 save percentage after that), so if he has his workload managed, he could still provide value. Right now, he is showing that he is the best option available for the Red Wings and has appeal for fantasy managers, too.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Team Preview

Sun, 15 Sep 2024 16:00:19 +0000

_{RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 25: New York Islanders Goalie Ilya Sorokin (30) prepares for a faceoff during game 5 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes on April 25, 2023 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire})

The Islanders replaced Lane Lambert with Patrick Roy around midseason and Roy led them to a 20-12-5 record, earning them 94 points (39-27-16) overall, which was good enough to get into the playoffs, where they lost in five games to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Isles ranked 25th in Corsi, at 47.3%, but 18th in expected goals percentage at just under 50%. Those percentages were better under Roy (48.7% Corsi, 51.3% expected goals). The Islanders power play ranked 17th with 7.56 goals per 60 minutes and ranked dead last in penalty killing with 10.78 goals against per 60 minutes. That they made the playoffs with such terrible penalty killing is a credit to the rest of their game, but a 94-point season could easily miss the playoffs in another season.

What’s Changed? It appears that the Islanders have moved on from veteran fourth liners Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck, a duo that logged a lot of minutes and threw a lot of hits in an Islanders uniform over the years. Defenceman Sebastian Aho signed as a free agent in Pittsburgh, but otherwise, the Islanders did not lose a lot. They signed winger Anthony Duclair, reuniting him with Roy, who coached Duclair in junior hockey. The Islanders also signed Russian winger Maxim Tsyplakov, who had 47 points in 65 KHL games last season, with hopes that he could fill a role in their middle six.

What would success look like? This Islanders team has had some relative success, reaching the final four in both 2020 and 2021, even when it might not have looked like the most likely outcome, and this version is similar. They should be able to compete for a playoff spot and the goaltending tandem of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov is strong enough to make a difference in that pursuit, but they do not appear to have the high-end talent that tends to take over the deeper a team goes into the playoffs. Maybe Mathew Barzal, who had his highest point total since his rookie season, can keep elevating his production and he will be the game-breaker that the Isles need to not just make the playoffs but to go on a deeper run.

What could go wrong? The Islanders’ playoff positioning seems precarious, so it wouldn’t necessarily take a lot for things to go wrong. If the goaltending isn’t quite as good as it has been, if guys on the north side of 30 like Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, see their production start to slip, then that could be enough for the Islanders to miss the playoffs. When a team makes the playoffs with 94 points, it is dependent on the other playoff contenders delivering mediocre seasons, too. The Islanders have reached the postseason with 94 points and 93 points in the past two seasons. In 2017, they finished with 94 points and missed the playoffs, so the challenge for the Islanders is to find a way to escape the playoff bubble so that they have a more secure chance to advance in the playoffs.

Top Breakout Candidate: For an Islanders team that does not have much by way of prospects knocking down the door, finding a breakout candidate requires some creativity, so take a look at 29-year-old winger Anthony Duclair. He is a four-time 20-goal scorer and has established his ability to score in the NHL. However, there is a higher upside for Duclair if he does indeed end up skating on the Islanders’ top line alongside Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. Duclair has exceeded 50 points just once in his career and if he plays on the Islanders’ top line, he should be able to do it again.

Forwards

Mathew Barzal

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	24	24	78	0.98

The Islanders wisely moved Barzal to right wing and it allowed him to use his dynamic skating to make plays in transition, without having to worry about faceoffs or down-low defensive responsibilities. Last season, Barzal played a career-high 20:08 per game and scored a career-high 23 goals. He finished with 80 points, his highest total since his rookie season of 2017-2018. He also averaged 3.00 shots on goal per game, a career-high mark and an increase of 0.60 shots per game from the previous season. The speedy forward is unlike anyone else on the Islanders roster, with his ability to generate chances largely with his own impressive skating skills. Not only does Barzal have straight away speed, but he is also shifty on his edges and once he puts a defender off balance, he can accelerate and leave them behind. The Islanders have always fared better with Barzal on the ice, consistently outshooting and outscoring opponents. While the Islanders could use more top-tier scorers to compete at the highest level, he is the closest that they have right now, so they are dependent on his production to make this team a contender. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, Barzal should be counted on for 20 goals and 70-75 points, with the understanding that he has potential to go for more, if he stays healthy and gets better quality support.

Bo Horvat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	31	34	65	0.80

A strong two-way centre, Horvat has emerged as a more consistent offensive threat in recent seasons, recording more than 30 goals in three straight seasons, including 33 goals in 2023-2024. He also accumulated a career-high 35 assists, thriving in an offensive role with Barzal his most frequent linemate. With a playmaker like Barzal on his wing, Horvat finished last season with 3.06 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career. When that duo was on the ice during five-on-five play, the Islanders outscored the opposition 51-35 and controlled 56.2 percent of expected goals. Horvat has a sturdy build and uses his strength effectively to win puck battles, but he is not an especially physical player overall. He has recorded 81 hits in 111 games since the Islanders acquired him from Vancouver. Horvat is strong on faceoffs, winning 55.2 percent since joining the Islanders, and remains a consistent finishing threat on the power play. In the past six seasons, he has accrued 61 power play goals, which is tied with Nathan MacKinnon for 14th in the NHL over that span. Horvat’s situation with the Islanders is positive because he gets playing time like a first-line centre, with more offensive zone starts compared to what he was getting earlier in his career, and frequently skates with the team’s most dangerous playmaker, Barzal. It is reasonable, then, to expect another 30-goal, 65-point campaign.

Brock Nelson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	33	65	0.79

A veteran centre who was a consistent offensive contributor early in his career, Nelson has turned into a first-rate goal scorer. In the past three seasons, Nelson has scored 107 goals, which ranks 21st in the National Hockey League, ahead of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Elias Pettersson. Nelson finished last season with 34 goals while averaging a career-high 3.05 shots on goal per game. That is excellent production from a second line centre. Nelson uses his size very effectively to protect the puck and around the opposition net to get rebounds and deflections. Moreover, he has a quick, accurate release that allows him to score from a distance. He is not particularly adept at the faceoff dot, winning 45.2 percent of his draws last season – his lowest success rate since 2016-2017. Despite being 6-foot-4, Nelson is also not a physical player, finishing with fewer than 40 hits in three of the past four seasons. There are aspects of his game that could be better but it’s difficult to argue with the production, especially on a team that does not score a lot. Having Nelson and Horvat down the middle might not give the Islanders the highest-scoring pair of top two centres, but they can both finish and that should not be discounted. Nelson will turn 33 early in the 2024-2025 season but should be able to continue scoring at similar rates, so 30-35 goals and 65 points would appear to be reasonable expectations.

Kyle Palmieri

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	22	45	0.56

After a couple of down seasons, including being limited to 55 games by an upper-body injury in 2022-2023, Palmieri delivered a strong 2023-2024 campaign for the Islanders. The 33-year-old winger tied his career high with 30 goals and his 54 points was his highest total since 2016-2017. While Palmieri isn’t huge, he is sturdy and plays an aggressive game, consistently going hard to the net, where he is an opportunist. Of his 30 goals last season, 11 were scored directly off rebounds and that is not a skill that is likely to go away. It’s much more about his willingness to go to the hard areas and having linemates that can generate scoring chances. An increased shot rate helped him get back on the right goal scoring track. He had 2.66 shots on goal per game last season, his highest per-game rate since 2018-2019. Palmieri’s most common linemates last season were Nelson and Pierre Engvall, and the trio was on the right side of the ledger when it came to shots, goals, and expected goals during five-on-five play. At his age, it is probably optimistic to expect another 30-goal season out of Palmieri. Even so, he should be able to contribute 20-25 goals and 45 points, which is decent second-line production.

Anthony Duclair

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	26	24	50	0.65

Maybe, just maybe, the chance to reunite with Patrick Roy, his junior hockey coach, will help Duclair remain in place for a while. The Islanders are going to be the ninth team of the 29-year-old’s career. He has played more than 100 games for just two franchises – Arizona (172 GP) and Florida (137 GP). It is a strange pattern because Duclair does plenty of things well, notably he has excellent speed and is a four-time 20-goal scorer. Although he has a sniper’s release that helps him score in transition, when Duclair gets in alone on a goaltender, he has a strong forehand deke that works rather effectively. He recovered from an Achilles injury that limited him to 20 games in 2022-2023 and thrived late in the season when he was traded from San Jose to Tampa Bay, tallying eight goals and 15 points in 17 games for the Lightning. Duclair will surely have a chance to skate in the Islanders’ top six but could conceivably get a chance on the top line alongside Horvat and Barzal. If he gets that kind of opportunity, this could be the best chance to reach his offensive potential. A reasonable expectation would be 25 goals and 50 points, but that could tick a little higher if Duclair sticks at the top of the depth chart.

Anders Lee

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	20	41	0.50

The Islanders captain did hit the 20-goal plateau for the eighth time in his career in 2023-2024, but 37 points in 81 games was his lowest points per game (0.46) since 2015-2016. That was the last season in which Lee averaged less time on ice than he did last season (15:34), so this could very well be a case of Father Time continuing his unbeaten streak. Lee is a 34-year-old winger who has made a home planted in front of opposing goaltenders and that can take a toll on a guy. He also had career-highs of 176 hits and 68 PIM last season so it’s not like he’s fading quietly into the background. Whether his role is diminishing or not, Lee continues to push the puck in the right direction when he is on the ice, as always. The Islanders have outscored opponents with Lee on the ice during five-on-five play in five of the past six seasons. Given the Islanders’ moves in the offseason, it looks like Lee will be expected to play more of a supporting role in the middle six than he did during his prime years. Still, it would be entirely reasonable to expect 20 goals and 40 points from the power forward who has scored 210 goals since 2016-2017, leaving him tied for 32nd in that time with the now-retired Joe Pavelski.

Pierre Engvall

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	12	20	32	0.42

A lanky 6-foot-5 winger, Engvall managed a modest 28 points in his first full season with the Islanders, but that happened while he scored on just 7.8 percent of his shots on goal and had an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6 percent. Those are relatively low numbers that could very easily swing in the other direction next season. Engvall is an excellent skater who uses his size to help control the puck so that he can wait for the opportunity to make the right play. Oddly enough, Engvall was an effective penalty killer in Toronto, yet has barely seen the ice when the Islanders are shorthanded, so that is an area for potential growth, though one that seems to be more in the hands of the coaching staff than Engvall himself. While he is not the most gifted finisher, he does put himself in position to score and he could have an even bigger impact if he consistently used his size to play a more physical game. He had just 28 hits last season and, considering that he is now 28-years old, it seems unlikely that he will suddenly become a thundering physical presence. Nevertheless, Engvall can capably fill a middle six role for the Islanders, and that might give him the chance to deliver 10-15 goals and 30-35 points.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	10	21	31	0.38

A veteran centre who plays a hard-nosed game, despite his lack of size, Pageau has been getting buried in the Islanders’ zone over the past couple of seasons, starting the vast majority of his shifts in the defensive zone and then struggling to turn the tide under those difficult circumstances. This despite winning better than 55 percent of his faceoffs in each of the past four seasons. Pageau is also a consistent physical presence and while some can take issue with the veracity of the counts on Islanders hits, he did finish with a career-high 196 hits in 2023-2024. That gives him surprising value in fantasy leagues. One area of concern is that he managed just 1.23 shots on goal per game, his lowest per-game rate since he was a rookie in 2013-2014 and that makes it difficult to consistently generate offence. Pageau’s upside tends to be limited by his role – he has hit the 40-point plateau three times in his career. He is not likely to experience a major renaissance at this stage of his career, so when it comes to 2024-2025, he could be expected to provide 10-15 goals and 30-35 points, which is generally not going to have fantasy appeal, but Pageau’s hit totals can offer more value for fantasy managers.

Simon Holmstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	12	11	23	0.33

It took some time for the 2019 first-round pick to establish his place in the NHL, but he broke through in his second season, tallying 15 goals, including five while shorthanded. There is little indication, however, that there is greater offensive upside lurking beneath the surface. Holmstrom has not scored much in the American Hockey League, compiling 70 points in 154 games, and scored on 20.8 percent of his shots with the Islanders last season, so he is a prime candidate for regression just based on his shooting percentage. Even if he does have good hands and showed the ability to create chances off the rush, there is also the reality that Holmstrom is on the lower end of the Islanders’ depth chart, and while he does have value as a penalty killer, he could get surpassed by younger players who are pushing for playing time. That uncertainty, coupled with the possibility of his shooting percentage declining makes it reasonable to expect maybe a dozen goals and 20 points for Holmstrom in 2024-2025, which leaves him as a low-end fantasy option, though in leagues that count shorthanded goals or points, he could potentially offer more value.

DEFENCE

Noah Dobson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	20	32	0.42

There is a whole lot to like about a 24-year-old, 6-foot-4, right-shot defenceman who can quarterback the power play and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 70 points. That is what the Islanders have in Dobson, who had shown significant potential in the previous two seasons, but he erupted in 2023-2024 and ended up finishing eighth in Norris Trophy voting. As he has become more comfortable in the league, Dobson has been able to make more aggressive offensive plays. He is not afraid to make a move to beat a defender and with his reach, he can be difficult to contain. While he can step into a blast from the point, he is even more dangerous when he is attacking the net, putting the opposing defence on its heels. The Islanders recognized that Dobson was ready for his breakthrough last season, increasing his ice time to 24:31 per game, a jump of more than four minutes from the previous season. While there is little doubt that he is the offensive cornerstone on the Islanders’ blueline, the team’s lack of firepower could put a ceiling on his offensive expectations for 2024-2025. It’s possible that Dobson will continue to produce like he did last season, but it’s also a lot to ask for a player to duplicate a career-best season. For that reason, it would be fair to expect a dozen goals and 60-65 points from the Islanders’ No. 1 blueliner.

Ryan Pulock

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	8	17	25	0.38

Although the veteran defenceman has a booming shot from the point, it has not provided a consistent source of points, especially with Dobson running the point on the Islanders power play. Pulock averaged a career-high 22:33 of ice time per game last season, while starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, so he offers more than just the big shot from the point. He missed 24 games with a lower-body injury last season, which obviously affected his total production. Pulock has had four seasons with more than 130 blocked shots and two seasons with at least 140 hits, so he has the peripheral stats production that tends to provide value for fantasy managers, and he is perhaps a better all-around defenceman than he was touted to be when his calling card coming into the league was his powerful shot. Pulock still has some upside as the No. 2 option on the Islanders blueline to quarterback the power play, which gives him regular time with the man advantage, but also makes him the first option should Dobson not be available. Provided he stays reasonably healthy, Pulock should be able to deliver 25 points and there are possible scenarios where his total goes higher than that.

Alexander Romanov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	5	18	23	0.29

The 24-year-old left shot blueliner is coming off back-to-back 22-point seasons, which offers limited fantasy value, but Romanov accumulates hits and blocked shots to a degree that sets him apart from a run-of-the-mill fringe fantasy defenceman. Across the past three seasons, only the Rangers’ Jacob Trouba has surpassed Romanov’s totals in hits (582) and blocked shots (444). In his prime years, there is room for Romanov to move into a bigger role on the Islanders blueline, and he did play a career-high 20:50 per game last season, skating primarily with Dobson on the Islanders’ top pair. While the Islanders did not hold a big edge in terms of shots or expected goals with the duo on the ice, the Isles did outscore opponents 35-20 with Romanov and Dobson working as a pair during five-on-five situations. Getting to share the ice with Dobson certainly helps matters, but even if Romanov can skate well in addition to shooting and handling the puck, without power play time or any substantial changes otherwise, he should be expected to fall between 20 and 25 points during the 2024-2025 season. There might be a higher offensive potential for him, but it does not appear that it is going to be uncovered with the Islanders.

Adam Pelech

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
61	1	8	9	0.16

Even though Pelech is not a major offensive contributor and has missed 45 games across the past two seasons, he is still an excellent defender whose production can make him a consideration in deep leagues. The injuries have not helped as Pelech was one of the game’s premier shut-down blueliners just a few years ago. Even if Pelech is a strong defender, he is not in the same class as he was in 2020-2021 when he was receiving Norris Trophy votes. Pelech is such a smooth skater and confident puckhandler that he could conceivably add more offence to his game, but considering the recent injuries, the 30-year-old is not likely to expand too far beyond what he has already established in his career. Provided that he can stay relatively healthy, and that does come with some doubt, it is still fair to expect 20-25 points from Pelech, and his blocked shot totals could bring more fantasy value, since he has 221 blocked shots in 119 games across the past two seasons. That leaves him as a low-end fantasy option, but the Islanders are not home to a lot of great alternatives on the blueline.

GOAL

Ilya Sorokin

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
57	27	22	8	4	0.915	2.98

It was a turtle race to the Wild Card spot for the New York Islanders and the rest of the Metropolitan Division this past year - but for all the faults the Long Island-based hockey club may have had on the ice, their goaltending presence certainly wasn't one of them. The Russian Goaltending Tandem Machine, it seems, never breaks; even as the Islanders went through a volatile year performance-wise, starter Ilya Sorokin and veteran backup Semyon Varlamov continued to chug along as a quality, above-average pair.

Like Sorokin's fellow Russian counterpart across the East River, Igor Shesterkin, the younger starter put up what some fans considered to be a regression-heavy year in 2023. Even with a lower raw save percentage, though, Sorokin's underlying numbers remained remarkably formidable. He continued to show off one of the most consistent games in the NHL, posting quality starts in over sixty percent of his appearances in net even with a massive workload. The Islanders struggled to suppress shots all year, allowing nearly 33 pucks to land on target per game against Sorokin over the course of his 56-game workload. His fatigue started to show by the end of the year, with some of his positioning getting sloppy and some of his angles getting overly aggressive in situations where he needed to keep his options open. His ability to bounce back from a bad goal, though, should continue to serve the Islanders well as they fight to become more of a postseason contender - and with Varlamov back for another year of serving as his number two, expect more of the same from one of the league's most trustworthy tandems.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 18:47:45 +0000

RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 25: New York Islanders Goalie Ilya Sorokin (30) prepares for a faceoff during game 5 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes on April 25, 2023 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Since John Tavares departed in the summer of 2018, the Islanders have stayed competitive through a goaltending-first approach. It can’t even really be called a defense-first approach, given the Islanders ranked 22nd in 5-on-5 expected goals against (181.77) and 24^th in all situations (184) in 2022-23, indicating that their defense separated from their goaltending was unimpressive. Ilya Sorokin overcame that subpar defense though, posting a 31-22-7 record, 2.34 GAA and .924 save percentage in 62 contests en route to finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting. If not for Sorokin, the Islanders would have had a miserable year because not only did New York struggle defensively, but they also finished 22nd in the league with 2.95 goals per game. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello tried to bolster the offense by acquiring Bo Horvat from Vancouver, who had 31 goals and 54 points in 49 contests at the time of the move, but he struggled with the Islanders, recording just 16 points in 30 outings. To make matters worse, Mathew Barzal suffered a lower-body injury shortly after the Horvat trade, preventing the duo from developing chemistry. Even with all that, the Islanders squeaked into the playoffs with a 42-31-9 record before losing in the first round to Carolina.

What’s Changed? The Islanders made no significant changes, but they did lock up Scott Mayfield and Pierre Engvall to seven-year deals, backup goaltender Semyon Varlamov to a four-year contract and, most importantly, Sorokin to an eight-year, $66 million deal. So, even if there wasn’t any meaningful turnover, Lamoriello stayed busy over the summer.

What would success look like? Sorokin needs to stay dominant to continue to mask the Islanders’ defensive issues, but if New York really wants to rise above mediocrity, they need more than just him. They need Horvat to adapt to his new team, which will be a far easier task if he gets to play alongside a healthy Barzal. If those two have a good year, the Islanders might end up average offensively, which would be enough for Sorokin to deliver the W on most nights.

What could go wrong? A long-term injury to Sorokin would of course be devastating given the Islanders’ reliance on him. To be fair, they do at least have Varlamov as a solid Plan B, but he’s 35 now and would be a significant downgrade from Sorokin. There’s also no guarantee that Horvat will be a great offensive leader. He was likely overperforming before the acquisition, as evidenced by his unusually high pre-trade 21.7 shooting percentage (his career average is 13.7). Horvat should at least be fine regardless, but they need more than a merely solid performance given his $8.5 million cap hit, and the team’s limited scoring threats.

Top Breakout Candidate: The Islanders don’t have any great breakout candidates, but one to keep an eye on is Simon Holmstrom. He had just six goals and nine points in 50 contests with the Islanders last year, but he was averaging only 11:06 of ice time. Taken with the 23rd overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Holmstrom has upside, and it’s clear the Islanders are hungry for offensive weapons, but he might still need more time to develop and may start the campaign in the AHL.

Forwards

Mathew Barzal

An electrifying skater who can carry the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone at an elite level, Barzal is a sensational play driver who has the potential to be a serious scoring threat, but that offensive breakthrough hasn’t quite materialized either. He scored 85 points as a rookie in 2017-2018 and has gone five straight seasons with 62 points or less. Barzal finished with 51 points (14 G, 37 A) in 58 games last season, which is fine, but it is still not making the most of his significant skills. He opened last season with 25 points in his first 22 games, but that included just two goals. While he is ostensibly a center, his inability to win faceoffs does make him a candidate to shift to the wing. He has won 42.3% of his faceoffs for his career but won a miserable 35.6% last season. With the Islanders relatively deep down the middle, they could consider turning Barzal loose on the wing. The Islanders’ tendency to play a grinding style has not brought out the best in Barzal’s production but the 26-year-old has the skills required to be a point per game scorer. While there is a world in which Barzal gets to that level again, it would be more reasonable to expect, say, 65 points while recognizing that there remains untapped potential when it comes to his offensive output.

Brock Nelson

After tallying 36 goals last season, and 37 the year before, Nelson is one of those 30 players to have scored at least 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. While Nelson is not a dominant play driver, the results have typically gone well for the Islanders with him on the ice. During five-on-five play, the Islanders have outscored the opposition with Nelson on the ice in eight of the past nine seasons. Last season, it was to the tune of 71 goals for and 45 goals against. He opened the season with 33 points (15 G, 18 A) and 96 shots on goal in his first 32 games. He could not maintain that scoring pace, in part because he could no longer generate three shots on goal per game. At 6’ 4”, Nelson has excellent size but is not a notable physical presence. He can use his reach, however, to gain space near the opposing goal and he is excellent at reading the play and making himself available in shooting position when the opportunity to score arises. Scoring 75 points last season was the first time in his career than Nelson surpassed 60 points. It would be reasonable enough this season to expect Nelson to record his third consecutive 30-goal campaign and 60 points.

Bo Horvat

Even though he opened last season with 31 goals in 49 games for Vancouver, while scoring on 21.7% of his shots, Horvat managed seven goals in 30 games with the Islanders, scoring on 8.1% of his shots. Regression can be a beast. He still finished with 38 goals, which put him in good company as one of 30 players to record 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. He effectively priced himself out of Vancouver by scoring 28 goals in 37 games and even if he was not going to maintain that pace, that production changed what Horvat could command on his next contract. Horvat is a sturdy forward who does not play a particularly physical game but does use that strength to get himself into shooting position and he had success playing the bumper position on the Canucks power play, scoring 25 power play goals in the past two seasons. After signing a big-ticket contract with the Islanders, Horvat will face massive expectations. Even if he does not match last season’s career-best output, Horvat could tally 30 goals and 60 points, quality production from a first-line center.

Anders Lee

An enormous physical presence, Lee has scored 28 goals in back-to-back seasons, a threshold he has hit five times in his career. He is not terribly fleet afoot, but plays to his strengths, carving out space around the net and daring the defense to do something about it. He is an excellent net front presence on the power play but at even strength, he still attacks the goal and gets comfortable at the top of the crease. As a result, Lee ranked first in individual high danger shot attempts and fourth in expected goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play last season. He started strong, with 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 19 games to open the season, but faded down the stretch, managing just four points (2 G, 2 A) in his last 15 games. His shot rate declined as the season progressed, too, which explains at least some of the reason behind his scoring dip. Lee should still be able to do damage in front of the opposition net, possibly challenging for 30 goals. He does tend to finish more than he sets up, however, so it would be reasonable to expect Lee to match last season’s total of 50 points.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Although he managed just 13 goals last season, his lowest total since 2016-2017, Pageau remains a strong two-way presence for the Islanders, which includes starting many more of his shifts in the defensive zone, finishing with an offensive zone start rate of 27.9% last season, freeing up the Islanders’ other centers for more offensive zone starts. While not especially big, Pageau plays a relentless physical style and recorded a career high 175 hits in 70 games in 2022-2023. He is also an ace in the faceoff dot and won a career best 57.9% of his draws. Pageau’s possession numbers tell an interesting story. He had a 46.3% Corsi percentage, worst among Islanders regulars. He also had an expected goals percentage of 51.5%, which suggests that Pageau was generating higher quality chances while suppressing higher quality chances in the defensive zone. Pageau did have a strong finish last season. Returning from an upper-body injury, Pageau had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his last 14 regular-season games, though he only mustered a single assist in six playoff games. Pageau has been consistent in terms of his offensive production with the Islanders, so it is fair to anticipate that he could produce another 40-point season in 2023-2024.

Kyle Palmieri

Following a couple of seasons with a lower shooting percentage, Palmieri started to find the mark again last season and finished with 16 goals in 55 games. After a slow start, Palmieri returned from an upper-body injury in mid-January and picked up his production from that point. In his last 34 games, Palmieri produced 24 points (10 G, 14 A) with 83 shots on goal while playing 17:44 per game. He then added five points (2 G, 3 A) in six playoff games. At his peak, Palmieri had a five-year stretch during which he scored at least 24 goals in each season. He is not at that level now, but the 32-year-old winger is still capable of providing secondary scoring if given the chance. While Palmieri did have 33 points in 55 games last season, that also came with an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.9%, which was his highest in more than a decade. Thus, Palmieri could be expected to contribute 35-40 points for the Islanders this season.

Pierre Engvall

Acquired from the Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, Engvall saw more ice time with the Islanders and finished the season with a career high 17 goals. A 6’ 5” left winger, who can also play some center, Engvall does not use his size to maximum effectiveness, but he was a consistent play driver in Toronto and that continued after moving to New York. In 18 games with the Islanders, Engvall had a Corsi percentage of 56.9% and expected goals percentage of 55.4%, both of which were best among Islanders that played more than a handful of games. A solid third line forward, Engvall can contribute in a secondary role on both the power play and penalty kill. There is an opportunity awaiting him with the Islanders, a chance to play more than he did in Toronto and that could give the lanky 27-year-old forward a chance at the best production of his career. In the 21 games that Engvall played more than 15 minutes last season, he produced 14 points (8 G, 6 A). That could be a chicken-and-the-egg situation, where he was getting more ice time because he had contributed offensively, but there is some indication that Engvall could have some untapped offensive potential. If Engvall produces 35 points, that would match his career high, but if he receives notably more ice time with the Islanders, that ceiling could climb higher, perhaps into the 40-to-45-point range.

Oliver Wahlstrom

The 11^th pick in the 2018 Draft, Wahlstrom has not yet lived up to expectations, but he has shown flashes of the potential that made him a high pick. Although the Islanders have been very conservative with Wahlstrom, not playing him much more than 12 minutes per game, he has shown an ability to generate shots, a willingness to play the body, and a competent level of defensive play. He suffered a knee injury against Pittsburgh on December 27th, ending his season so that hindered Wahlstrom’s development, but there should still be a chance for him to earn a regular spot among the Islanders’ top nine forwards, where the 23-year-old can prove that he has 20-goal upside. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for Wahlstrom. If he continues to play fourth-line minutes, he can be productive in that limited role, but if he gets a real opportunity to play higher up the depth chart, Wahlstrom has the potential to deliver 20 goals and 40 points, maybe even more.

Defense

Noah Dobson

Taken with the pick after Oliver Wahlstrom in 2018, Dobson has emerged as the top scoring option on the Islanders defense, producing 49 points (13 G, 36 A) last season after putting up 51 points the year before. His offensive impact is what helps Dobson stand out, though his play away from the puck could use some shoring up if he is going to reach his full potential. There is naturally a lot to like about a 6’ 4”, right shot defenseman who is 23 and has put up a total of 100 points in the past two seasons, but Dobson has more room to grow. He finished the season with 11 points (1 G, 10 A) in the last 13 games, but his ice time was down during that stretch, below 19 minutes per game when he had played over 20 minutes per game previously. In any event, Dobson is the most dangerous offensive threat on the Islanders blueline. He has had back-to-back 13-goal seasons and should be expected to hit 50 points, maybe more if the Islanders can generate more offense as a team.

Ryan Pulock

Known primarily for his booming shot when he came into the league, Pulock had become a sound defender but his play without the puck has dipped in the past couple of seasons and the Islanders allowed 2.91 expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Pulock on the ice last season, the highest rate of his career. The Islanders have invested heavily in Pulock, too, but he could use a rebound season to give the club more confidence in his role as a cornerstone piece moving forward. He was one of 22 defensemen to record at least 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. Pulock does not have the same kind of role on the power play that he had earlier in his career and that inhibits his offensive output. He had 26 points last season and is likely going to be in the range of 25-30 points in 2023-2024.

Adam Pelech

A premier defensive defenseman who does not get enough recognition because he does not contribute much offensively, the 28-year-old blueliner is elite when it comes to suppressing scoring chances. Among the 99 defensemen that have logged 3,000 five-on-five minutes in the past three seasons, Pelech ranks 11^th in high danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes and fifth in high danger goals against per 60. While Pelech does not get nearly the recognition that he deserves, the Islanders have signed him through the 2028-2029 season, an indication that his shutdown defensive play is not going unnoticed with his own team. As outstanding as Pelech is defensively, he is not a big point producer. Based on recent seasons, 25 points if a fair expectation for Pelech, even if it does not represent his real value to the club.

Scott Mayfield

After scoring a career-high 24 points (5 G, 19 A) while playing a career-high 21:02 per game last season, Mayfield was headed for unrestricted free agency, but then the Islanders locked him up with a seven-year contract, which seems like a big commitment for a defenseman who will turn 31 early in the 2023-2024 season, but with a cap hit of $3.5 million per season, it’s a pretty reasonable price to pay. Mayfield is 6’ 5” and 220 pounds and while he can play a physical game, it is not an overwhelming part of his contribution. He is a capable top-four defenseman with some offensive limitations, but it’s not hard to understand why the Islanders want to keep him around. A strong finish last season, which included seven points (1 G, 6 A) in the last 12 games, propelled Mayfield to 24 points, the high-water mark for his career. Barring a sudden and unexpected change in role, he should fall in the range of 20-25 points again.

Alexander Romanov

Acquired from the Montreal Canadiens last summer, Romanov’s first season with the Islanders saw him finish with a modest career high of 22 points (2 G, 20 A) but Romanov continued to provide blocked shots (129) and hits (198), which is fine, but his overall play left room for improvement. The 23-year-old has the physical tools, but it remains to be seen if he can put it all together and thrive in a top-four role. He faces some quality competition on the Islanders blueline, so Romanov will have to earn his way into more minutes, but he does give the Islanders insurance if some of their top four options falter. Romanov may not be a big scorer, but he is on a defense corps with few offensive options, too. Beyond Dobson, most of the Islanders defenders can be expected to score 20-plus points and Romanov fits into that group, too.

Goaltending

Ilya Sorokin

If the 2021-22 season with Igor Shesterkin’s coming-out party, the 2022-23 campaign was the league’s welcoming celebration for Ilya Sorokin across the East River. Sorokin’s arrival in North America was almost overshadowed by Shesterkin’s own dazzling debut – but thanks to a heroic season that pushed the New York Islanders back into the playoffs, Sorokin was given his due in the form of a second-place Vezina voting finish and one of the league’s best statistical performances of the year. Sorokin put up an almost laughably consistent display with his third NHL season, bringing his career save percentage through his first 136 NHL games to a mind-boggling .924 in all situations.

Sorokin quieted any doubters who worried that the Islanders weren’t in it to win it with his third straight year topping a .700 quality start percentage, proving that he’s here to stay – and here to win. And while he still looks like he’s added some control to a game that always seemed to serve as a more high-flying foil to the more controlled Shesterkin’s game while the pair competed over in Russia, Sorokin showed this past year that he’s willing to have a little fun with things, too; now that he’s really come into his own, he’s started to add some flair to his tendency to remain constantly in motion and his inclination to make the big save when a smaller one would do. His tracking remains as sharp as ever, and he did continue to show enough structure and positioning to suggest that he could be the Marc-Andre Fleury to Shesterkin’s Lundqvist; he’s a lot of fun to watch, and he’s more than willing to show that he knows it, too.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rookies making their mark late in the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Mar 2023 15:36:20 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, rookies are making their mark late in the season. From Wyatt Johnston in Dallas to Joel Hofer in St. Louis to Luke Evangelista in Nashville, there are some fresh faces getting the job done. When it comes to the veterans, Mattias Ekholm and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are bringing late-season value, too.

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 25: Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) skates with the puck during a NHL game between Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins on October 25, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, MA. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The leading rookie goal scorer is now Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston, who has taken on more responsibility for a division-leading team down the stretch. In his past 14 games, Johnston has 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 37 shots on goal while playing more than 17 minutes per game. He has thrived skating in between veterans Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov and this looks like just the beginning for a 19-year-old who scored 124 points in 68 games for Windsor of the Ontario Hockey League last season.

#2 While the expectation seems to be that St. Louis Blues rookie goaltender Joel Hofer is getting some late season action to prepare for the backup role next season. It might be premature to decide that the 22-year-old is only suited for the No. 2 job. In four starts since getting called up, Hofer is rocking a .944 save percentage, so not only does he have potential dynasty league value, but he could add goaltending value late this season, too.

#3 After scoring 41 points (9 G, 32 A) in 49 games for Milwaukee in the AHL, Luke Evangelista is getting a late-season audition with the Nashville Predators, and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity. In a dozen games with the Preds, Evangelista has produced nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal, earning a spot on the first power play unit and he played a career-high 20:28 in Thursday’s 2-1 shootout win against Seattle.

#4 When the Edmonton Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, the obvious appeal was Ekholm’s shutdown defensive play. However, Ekholm is not just putting it high and hard off the glass – he can make plays, too. In 11 games for the Oilers, Ekholm has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 22 shots on goal. Mix in 18 hits and 19 blocked shots and the big blueliner is worthy of fantasy consideration.

#5 With Brock Nelson leaving Tuesday’s win over Toronto early and Mathew Barzal already out of the lineup, the Islanders need Jean-Gabriel Pageau to step up after returning from his own upper-body injury. Pageau missed more than a month of action and, upon getting back into the lineup, immediately embarked on a four-game point streak, scoring six points (2 G, 4 A) in the process.

#6 Veteran Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund has 49 points, giving him a good chance to surpass his career high of 53 points set in 2016-2017. While points have run hot and cold at times for Backlund, he has become an elite shot generator in the second half of the season. In 35 games since the calendar flipped to 2023, Backlund has 30 points (10 G, 20 A) and 127 shots on goal, which ties him with Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel for 10^th in the league over that time.

#7 Another premier shot generator, who is still available in many league, Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson has put 49 shots on goal in his past 10 games, the highest per-game shot rate since February 28. Arvidsson is up to 48 points (20 G, 28 A) on the season, putting him within range of his first 50-point season since 2017-2018. He forms an effective two-way line for the Kings, skating alongside Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore.

#8 San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl is hardly flying under the radar, but mediocre goal and shot rates this season made him more readily available for fantasy managers. Late in the season, Hertl has become more aggressive offensively, and has contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 10 games. The Sharks are rather lean when it comes to forward talent, so Hertl is skating between Noah Gregor and Kevin Labanc, not exactly ideal linemates to maintain a high level of production. On the other hand, that might contribute to Hertl’s newfound willingness to shoot the puck.

#9 Evangelista is not the only Predators youngster contributing to the club’s surprising late push for the playoffs. Philip Tomasino has produced 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past 15 games, and has earned a regular spot alongside Cody Glass and Matt Duchene on one of Nashville’s scoring lines. Tomasino had 32 points with Nashville last season but started this season in the AHL, scoring 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 games. It appears that the 21-year-old is better equipped to handle more offensive responsibility now.

#10 After tallying 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 29 games for the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL, 32-year-old winger Alex Chiasson earned another shot in the NHL with the Detroit Red Wings. In 10 games for Detroit, Chiasson has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal – impressive production for a guy playing 11 minutes per game, but he is an effective net front presence on the power play, scoring four of his five goals with the man advantage.

#11 Evan Rodrigues has been a quality contributor for the Avalanche when healthy this season but, like many Avs, has had to deal with injuries. He has landed in concussion protocol this week, creating an opportunity for Denis Malgin to move up to Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. While Malgin has seven points (5 G, 2 A) in his past 10 games, the more important part is that he has played more than 15 minutes in the past two games. That is the first time since January 2 that he has hit that ice time threshold.

#12 At his best, Washington Capitals right winger Tom Wilson can be a fantasy hockey difference maker. This season, he missed a bunch of time while recovering from a torn ACL and struggled upon returning to action, but he is getting back to peak performance. In his past 16 games, Wilson has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal. Of course, being Tom Wilson, he also has 42 hits and that is what makes him a major fantasy threat and worth adding if he is still available in your league.

#13 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Pavel Dorofeyev got into three games in December but did not find the scoresheet before returning to the AHL. Since getting called back up, he has delivered six points (4 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in six games. He only had 17 points (9 G, 8 A) in 32 AHL games, so it is fair to be skeptical of Dorofeyev’s small sample NHL production, but he is getting a quality opportunity, skating on Vegas’ second line with Reilly Smith and William Karlsson.

#14 When Kirill Kaprizov was injured, I speculated that veteran Marcus Johansson might have an opportunity to play a bigger role for the Minnesota Wild and that has turned out to be the case. In his past seven games, Johansson has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and has played more than 15 minutes in six of those contests. He is thriving on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek at center and Matt Boldy on right wing, which presents a strong opportunity for the veteran left winger to contribute offensively.

#15 It can be easy for Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle to get overlooked as he is not a star player and falls behind bigger names on the depth chart. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old center is finishing strong, with 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 11 games and he is doing this without a regular role on the power play, playing with Tyler Bertuzzi and Trent Frederic at evens, a line that can have a physical impact on the game before they even worry about putting pucks in the net.

#16 When the Vancouver Canucks acquired defenseman Filip Hronek at the trade deadline, he was dealing with an upper-body injury, but he was finally cleared to play Thursday night against San Jose. He logged 24:25 of ice time in his first game for the Canucks and while Hronek did not record a point, he is clearly going to play a big role for Vancouver for the rest of this season and beyond. That said, he is limited to quarterbacking the second power play unit because Quinn Hughes has been one of the most productive defensemen on the power play in the past two seasons, recording a league-leading 60 power play assists in 143 games.

#17 With Nashville defenseman Roman Josi out of the lineup due to injury, there is a big opportunity for newly acquired Tyson Barrie. The veteran puck-moving defenseman has three assists in his past five games, while averaging nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game. The past two seasons in Edmonton were the first since 2013-2014 that Barrie had averaged less than 20 minutes of ice time per game, so he is not new to handling big minutes on the blueline.

#18 Although he is splitting starts with Pheonix Copley, Joonas Korpisalo has become more valuable for fantasy managers since his trade to the Los Angeles Kings because he actually wins games. In his first four starts for L.A., Korpisalo has a 3-0-1 record with a .921 save percentage and 1.96 goals against average. It is fair to be skeptical about Korpisalo, given the ups and downs of his career, but this has been the best season of the 28-year-old netminder’s career.

#19 Digging deeper for goaltending help, New Jersey has been giving Akira Schmid more starts and he has posted a .930 save percentage in seven appearances since getting recalled from the AHL. The 22-year-old has a .910 save percentage in 58 AHL games over the past two seasons, so he may be ready for the NHL, and these early returns are very promising. While starter Vitek Vanecek appears to be bouncing back lately, he went through a five-game stretch during which he had a .821 save percentage, so that gave the Devils some incentive to look for other options between the pipes.

#20 With injuries taking Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair out of the Florida Panthers lineup, look to Eetu Luostarinen, who has earned a bigger role in the second half of the season and has stepped into the second line center role between Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Luostarinen has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 13 games and played more than 20 minutes in Thursday’s loss to Toronto. It was the third time this season that Luostarinen had crossed that 20-minute threshold.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 Fantasy Points – Physical Forwards Providing Offense, More Players Landing Bigger Roles Early in the Season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Nov 2022 19:28:40 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, physical forwards like Nick Paul and Lawson Crouse who are scoring enough to offer fantasy value, smaller wingers like Jeff Skinner and Travis Konecny starting strong, and some more players landing bigger roles early in the season.

SAN JOSE, CA - OCTOBER 29: Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Mikhail Sergachev (98) and Left Wing Nicholas Paul (20) take positions shoulder to shoulder for a faceoff during the third period of a regular season NHL hockey game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the San Jose Sharks on October 29, 2022, at SAP Center, in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire)

#1 When the Tampa Bay Lightning traded for Nick Paul last season, he had proven himself to be a reliable checking forward, capable of playing both wing and center. He has started to produce more offensively in Tampa Bay. He scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 21 regular-season games last season before adding nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 23 playoff games. With Anthony Cirelli out to start the season, Paul has responded to an increased role. He is playing more than 18 minutes per game and a goal against Carolina on Thursday was Paul’s seventh point (3 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Through 11 games, Paul also has 19 hits and 13 blocked shots, so he is a category stuffer.

#2 For all of the problems in Arizona, it does mean that left winger Lawson Crouse can count on playing a significant role for the Coyotes. The 6-foot-4 winger has 29 hits in 10 games, to go with five goals and seven points. Crouse had the first 20-goal season of his career last season but will need to increase his shot output if he is going to continue scoring at this rate because his 26.3% shooting percentage is not going to be sustainable over a full season.

#3 Consistency can be elusive for Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner, so it was not a huge surprise when, after he had zero goals and two assists in six games, he was more readily available on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues. In the past four games, Skinner has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and continues to have success skating on a line with Tage Thompson. One thing to watch, though: Skinner has just 2.50 shots on goal per game, which would be only the second time in the past 12 seasons that he has averaged less than three shots on goal per game.

#4 While he came into the spotlight this week for jousting with Toronto Maple Leafs sniper Auston Matthews, Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny is taking a leadership role on a rebuilding Flyers team. Konecny has produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 33 shots on goal through 10 games and he is playing a ton – more than 20 minutes per game is a significant jump from last season’s career high of 17:37 per game.

#5 With Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup for the Florida Panthers, there is going to be some expectation that others on the Panthers blueline can step up to fill the void. Gustav Forsling is one option and Brandon Montour is another. Montour is playing more than 26 minutes per game and has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 30 shots on goal in nine games.

#6 An unheralded type on the Washington Capitals blueline, Nick Jensen has not only contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 12 games, but he has17 hits and 21 blocked shots, which provides good value for fantasy purposes. Jensen had a career-high 21 points last season, so his offensive contributions are not likely to be significant, but he is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, a threshold he has not maintained over a full season in his NHL career.

#7 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand scored in the first game of the season and has yet to light the lamp since. That does not mean that he is not contributing, however. After picking up an assist in Thursday’s 4-0 win at Minnesota, Bjorkstrand has seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 45 shots on goal in 12 games. The Kraken are getting 59.1% of 5v5 shot attempts when Bjorkstrand is on the ice, so he is probably a decent buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#8 In the summer, the Seattle Kraken did not give a qualifying offer to winger Daniel Sprong, a 25-year-old who has shown that he can put the puck in the net but has not had a well-rounded enough game to secure his spot in the lineup. Ultimately, Sprong re-signed in Seattle, and he has very effective in a limited role for the Kraken. In six games, while playing less than 11 minutes per game, Sprong has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal. He is still not getting enough ice time to like his long-term value but if Sprong continues to produce, he could start to earn a bigger role with the Kraken.

#9 New York Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored his first goal of the season in Thursday’s 5-2 win over the slumping St. Louis Blues. Pageau has six points (1 G, 5 A) in 11 games, but has fantasy appeal because he is a hitter. He has 38 hits in 11 games, which puts him in rare company. Noel Acciari, 4.0 hits per game, and Vincent Trocheck, with 3.5 hits per game, are the only centers with more hits per game than Pageau (3.45).

#10 Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry is more known for his physical play. After recording six hits against Montreal on Thursday, he now has 27 hits through 10 games. Lowry also has six points (2 G, 4 A) in 10 games. He has never had a 30-point season in his NHL career, so don’t bank on that production continuing, but it is worth keeping an eye on him.

#11 File this name away for a little later in the season. 23-year-old Devils winger Fabian Zetterlund has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in six games, but he is performing well alongside Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar, controlling 66.7% of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who had 52 points (24 G, 28 A) in 58 AHL games for Binghamton last season. Forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (minimum 50 minutes): Stefan Noesen (2.11), Zach Parise (2.04), Zach Hyman (1.64), Auston Matthews (1.54), Dakota Joshua (1.52), and Fabian Zetterlund (1.46).

#12 While the players on the lowest end of individual expected goals are typically fourth liners, there are some more offensively inclined players hovering near the bottom. James van Riemsdyk, Max Domi, Ryan Strome, J.T. Miller, and Brayden Schenn are all among the Bottom 30.

#13 While the Edmonton Oilers are obviously invested in Jack Campbell as their starting goaltender after signing him as a free agent in the summer, rookie Stuart Skinner could force some difficult playing time decisions. Skinner has a .944 save percentage in five games, compared to Campbell’s .881 save percentage in seven games. This is a small sample of games for any player, but especially goaltenders, so Skinner’s early success does not mean that he will surely outplay Campbell this season. However, if Skinner continues to play at such a high level, he is going to warrant a role more substantial than that afforded to the typical backup goaltender.

#14 Skinner is not the only surprise backup goaltender early in the season. Among goalies who do not lead their team in starts, Vegas’ Adin Hill, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Chicago’s third-stringer Arvid Soderblom, Nashville’s Kevin Lankinen, Montreal’s Samuel Montembeault, and Washington’s Charlie Lindgren have all performed very well in a small sample of games to open the season. It will take more than a few games for any of them to push for playing time but a strong start to the season is the best way to force a change in goaltending plans.

#15 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is off to a terrible start in a contract year. The 31-year-old pivot has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games. While his possession numbers are okay, the Blues have been outscored 10-2 during 5-on-5 play with O’Reilly on the ice. That is hardly typical performance from a center who has finished in the top five of Selke Trophy voting in four straight seasons, winning the award following the 2018-2019 season.

#16 Other prominent forwards that are starting slowly: Sam Reinhart, Teuvo Teravainen, Brendan Gallagher, Jordan Kyrou, and Kailer Yamamoto.

Reinhart has 31 shots on goal in 11 games, the highest per-game shot rate of his career and has yet to score.

Teravainen is still seeking his first goal despite putting 26 shots on net in 10 games. Carolina’s top line has had trouble finishing early in the season.

Kyrou has three goals in nine games but has zero assists and is minus-15. Relative to his teammates, the puck is moving the right way when Kyrou is on the ice, but his on-ice shooting percentage is 3.9% and his on-ice save percentage is .821, both ridiculously low.

Gallagher has three points (2 G, 1 A) in 11 games but his 2.36 shots on goal per game is a career low.

Yamamoto has never been a big shot generator, so even though he is playing a career-high 17:35 per game, his 1.40 shots per game is still around his career average. That leaves him with zero goals and three assists in 10 games.

From this group, Reinhart, Teravainen, and Kyrou look like good buy-low opportunities, while Gallagher and Yamamoto are riskier plays moving forward.

#17 The ninth pick in the 2021 Draft, Dylan Guenther is getting a quality opportunity to play with a rebuilding Coyotes team. He is getting buried in terms of shot quality, with the Coyotes getting 30.7% of expected goals while Guenther is on the ice during 5-on-5 play, but his Corsi percentage of 44.9% ranks third among Arizona forwards. Guenther has shown some of his skill around the net, contributing six points (2 G, 4 A) in nine games and given that this season is about development, Guenther should see his ice time increase as the year goes on.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones has landed on the injured list with a fractured thumb, thinning out an already thin blueline crew. Caleb Jones is seeing more power play time and has six assists in his past six games. Jack Johnson led Chicago defensemen in ice time during Thursday’s 2-1 overtime win against Los Angeles.

#19 While Tampa Bay Lightning superstar defenseman Victor Hedman nurses an upper-body injury, Mikhail Sergachev is getting even more opportunity to step to the forefront. Sergachev has three points (1 G, 2 A) in two games that Hedman has missed, averaging more than 27 minutes of ice time per game.

#20 With Ryan Hartman suffering a shoulder injury in a fight with Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Jarred Tinordi, Minnesota is getting perilously thin down the middle of the ice. Joel Eriksson Ek is followed on the depth chart by Frederick Gaudreau, Marco Rossi, and Sam Steel. This would seem to be a prime opportunity for Rossi to step into a bigger role, and he did play a career-high 16:39 in Thursday’s 4-0 loss to Seattle, but the Wild ended up shifting Matt Boldy to play the middle between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: Inside the Islanders Flawless Penalty Kill

Jesse Marshall — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 14:00:46 +0000

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 22: New York Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau (44) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders on October 22, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

No one has scored a power-play goal against the New York Islanders in the Lane Lambert era.

Granted, there's a sample size discussion to be had here. While it's early in the season, the Isles have been shorthanded a total of 25 times for an average of just over six minutes per game, a number good enough for ninth in the league so far this year.

Lambert and his staff haven't reinvented the wheel. Rather, they've tossed their own wrinkles into a penalty kill structure that has been successfully employed across many eras of the game. It is equal parts patient and chaotic in its approach. Most importantly, it seems to be the perfect fit for the style of player Lambert & co. have employed within the system.

The Wedge Plus One is a system that has multiple goals within a four-man squad. It seeks to rob opposing man-advantage units of prime real estate in front of the net and in the slot area while simultaneously letting one player run amok in an attempt to disrupt the pace and quarterbacking of the at the top of the point. This system requires a high level of chemistry between the penalty killers. As we'll see in the video, a variety of reads are necessary to provide the proper pressure and ensure the critical areas of the ice are covered.

Before we get to the video, let's take a look at this system as it appears on paper so we can understand where players should be and what the base function is of the structure.

This structure is called a Wedge Plus One because that's exactly how it appears on paper. The wedge is a three-player triangle in front of the net that extends into the slot area and "wedges" out any player that attempts to enter the middle of the triangle. This robs teams of the ability to put a one-timer option directly in the middle of the slot. By fixing a player there, the power play nearly negates their personnel advantage by having one player eaten up by the wedge.

At the top of the system sits the plus one of the group. This player's responsibility is to disrupt the quarterbacks of the power play and force them into making decisions they aren't comfortable with. In short, they are a complete wrecking ball. They are designed to create chaos and prevent the opposing team from operating at their preferred pace.

It's important to note that the plus one will change throughout the kill. It is not always the same person. If the second forward within the wedge has a better play on attacking the puck, the forwards will swap out mid-kill and exchange spots with each other. This will also take place if the plus one needs a break and has been pressing for some time. Exchanges in plus one happen based on coverage or how winded a player might be.

To get a sense of how this coverage works on the ice, let's take a look at a short clip that shows the Islanders mid-kill. Within the video, I've made callouts to points where the plus one is changing based on the flow of the play. You can see the Islanders orchestrate this read very well, it's a seamless execution that affords the opponent no time or space.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/IslesSwitch1.mp4

The reason these player exchanges within the system are so important is that the low forward in the wedge, often referred to as the "sagging forward," has a lot of responsibility in covering the back door and reverse angles of the play. If this exchange is not clean and these reads are not made appropriately, opportunities for scoring chances can manifest out of nowhere due to bad coverage.

That clip does a great job exemplifying why it can be so difficult to find space in high-traffic areas against the Islander's penalty kill. The wedge eats up a ton of space in important scoring areas and the plus one is busy forcing the puck to the exterior of the ice.

Another area of strength for the Islanders has been in how they approach draws and evaluate when it's time to press the opponent hard versus back up and enter into the preferred penalty killing structure. Off of this faceoff in the defensive zone, you'll see both Islander forwards press up ice to form a big box structure. This is because they aren't yet sure who will manifest as the power-play quarterback. Until its clear where this play is headed, the Islanders will hold off on splitting up into their Wedge Plus One structure.

Once the play establishes and the opposing power-play takes shape, the Islanders will establish the system and establish their wedge. The timing of this is, once again, the strongest part of this system.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Islesbigboxoffdraw.mp4

This is a very neat bit of business by the Islanders to make the right read in not only how they approach the system and enter into it, but again how they identify times to swap plus ones and maintain wedge structure at critical moments of the opposing power play. These adherences to the system in an early stage of the season with a new coaching staff are, to me, quite remarkable. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Zach Parise, the forward ice-time leaders on the Islander's penalty kill, have been leading the charge in this area.

The main variations on this system I have seen from Lambert's staff have been a reservation around letting the defensemen be the ones to do the chasing out of the wedge. You're going to rarely see defensemen act as a plus one. The forwards will do the bulk of the skating. The preference seems to be to keep the defensemen at home within the wedge.

Another variation is in mitigating zone entries. The Islanders will often stack three players at the blueline to clog things up on zone entries, but when the opportunity presents itself, they'll start forechecking deep within the opposing team's zone and layer their pressure player after player to create a lot of chaos in the neutral zone. Take a look at the next clip to see them harassing the puck carriers all the way up the ice.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/IslesUncomft.mp4

That constant pressure is enough to disrupt what Victor Hedman and the Lightning are attempting to do on the power play and forces them to retreat deep into their own zone, wasting valuable time to reset and try everything over again from scratch. These seconds add up on a penalty kill. The Islanders are successful in part because they force teams to regroup and try basic zone entry techniques multiple times.

That isn't the only area they've added their own bit of flair to. You'll also see Islanders players swarm the puck when they have an opportunity to win a board battle and clear the puck out of the zone. The idea here is to create situations where you possess a manpower advantage despite the fact that you're shorthanded and killing a penalty.

For instance, your team may be facing a four-on-five situation, but if the puck skirts to the boards and is up for grabs, you can easily use a system like a wedge to create a puck battle that features and three-on-two advantage for your own team. Or, at the very least, a three-on-three, even-up opportunity to win a loose puck.

Take a look at the Islander's response in the next clip. When given the chance to pounce on a loose puck and negate the other team's advantage, they take it and earn a strong clearing attempt. Also, keep an eye on the behavior of the plus one. As this clearing attempt matriculates, they make a correct read in pinching up ice to further disrupt the play.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Isleswalloverload.mp4

Penalty killing isn't something that is limited to the defensive zone. As you can see from these clips, a successful penalty kill is one that makes life easy for a goaltender, minimizes chances from high-danger areas, and doesn't allow the opponent any time to feel comfortable in any phase of the game. The Islanders are cooking with a bit of all of that courtesy of the Wedge Plus One structure and their adherence to it.

A final note about goaltending as it's truly the bedrock of any good penalty kill. You cannot successfully kill off 25 straight power play attempts with poor goaltending. While the Islanders system is working, it isn't immune to turnovers or missed assignments. There have been a few, and Ilya Sorokin leads the NHL with 4.24 raw goals saved above average in all penalty kill situations. That's in just over 32 minutes of power-play time, so he's not gone without tests in that regard.

Pair this high-pressure system with some above-average goaltending and you have a recipe for future success. As the Islanders' streak continues, keep an eye on how they're employing these strategies and driving a direct wedge into opposing power-play attempts.