Jeremy SWAYMAN – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – A major injury for the Oilers, a renaissance in Pittsburgh, a big trade acquisition is paying off for Seattle, Columbus’ driving force, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Mar 2026 14:33:30 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a major injury for the Oilers, a renaissance in Pittsburgh, a big trade acquisition is paying off for Seattle, Columbus’ driving force, and so much more!

#1 The Edmonton Oilers have lost star centre Leon Draisaitl for the rest of the regular season due to a lower-body injury. This causes a lot of dominos to fall in response when it comes to the Oilers lineup. They have moved Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second-line centre role, between Zach Hyman and Jack Roslovic, with Vasily Podkolzin moving to left wing on the first line with Connor McDavid. In his past 10 games, Nugent-Hopkins has four goals and zero assists with 20 shots on goal, which starts to lean him towards the fantasy roster bubble in basic leagues. Podkolzin is intriguing for deeper leagues as he has been picking up his pace. Since the beginning of February, he has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 30 shots on goal in 14 games.

#2 As a 35-year-old future Hall of Famer, Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson has had ups and downs over the course of a long career, but when he is on, his greatness still shines through and, right now, he’s on. Coming out of the Olympic break, with the Penguins missing Sidney Crosby (and, for five games, Evgeni Malkin) Karlsson has been killing it. In 12 games, averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game, Karlsson has put up 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 36 shots on goal. It’s elite, superstar-level production once again and over the entire season the Penguins have outscored opponents 60 to 41 with Karlsson on the ice at five-on-five.

#3 The Seattle Kraken are still in the playoff hunt and made a savvy move to acquire Bobby McMann from the Toronto Maple Leafs before the trade deadline. He has joined Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle on the Kraken’s top line and in his first four games for the Kraken, McMann has six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal. What is especially interesting is that he is also getting nearly three minutes more of ice time per game.

#4 Every time a team makes a head coaching change, they dream of getting the kind of results that the Blue Jackets have received since replacing Dean Evason with Rick Bowness. The Blue Jackets have a 17-2-4 record under Bowness and there is one player who has really reaped the rewards from this change. Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli, and Kirill Marchenko have all put up at least a point per game but the leading scorer on the team over that time is Charlie Coyle, who has 29 points (10 G, 19 A) and 57 shots on goal in those 23 games. He is up to 55 points in 68 games for the season, now within five points of his career high of 60 points, set in 2023-2024.

#5 Coming out of the Olympic break, Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha has turned into a much-needed productive scoring forward. In 12 games, he has recorded 14 points (8 G, 6 A) and 22 shots on goal. That shot rate isn’t ideal, but he has found a good line with veterans Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson on the wings. Zacha has a career-high 23 goals and, with 51 points, he is within range of his career high of 59 points, set in 2023-2024.

#6 With Sidney Crosby returning to the Penguins lineup, after recovering from the knee injury that he suffered during the Olympics, that has allowed Rickard Rakell to move back to left wing on the top line. Rakell had filled in at centre on the Penguins’ top line and he’s now riding a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (2 G, 7 A). He has taken 147 faceoffs this season, his most in a season since 2017-2018.

#7 With the end of his brilliant career on the horizon, Los Angeles Kings centre Anze Kopitar is still pushing for a playoff spot and he’s playing between high-octane scoring wingers Artemi Panarin and Adrian Kempe on the top line. Kopitar is 38 years old and, in the month of March, he has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in nine games. Definitely worth adding for the stretch run in fantasy leagues just based on his linemates alone.

#8 The season has obviously gone in the wrong direction for the Vancouver Canucks, but that does offer a chance to find undervalued players. Veteran winger Brock Boeser has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past nine games, finding a good connection with former Minnesota Wild forwards Marco Rossi and Liam Ohgren as his linemates. Even with this recent surge in production, Boeser has just 36 points in 61 games. His previous career low was 45 points, which he scored in just 57 games during the 2019-2020 season.

#9 The Minnesota Wild have been having such a strong season that it has allowed secondary players to become viable fantasy contributors. Vladimir Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past six games, and while he does get top unit power play time, he is playing with Mats Zuccarello and Ryan Hartman on a solid veteran second line. He’s not the top line scorer that he was during his peak years, but Tarasenko is one goal away from the ninth 20-goal season of his career.

#10 Carolina Hurricanes sophomore right winger Jackson Blake continues to improve. Since the Olympic break, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 29 shots on goal in 11 games. He has been cooking on a line with Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall, and Blake’s ability to generate chances totally fits with the Hurricanes’ ethos. His 1.02 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranks third on the team, behind Seth Jarvis and Eric Robinson.

#11 As the Ottawa Senators make a furious push for a playoff spot, centre Shane Pinto is delivering solid secondary scoring, with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past eight games. He has 37 points (18 G, 19 A) in 58 games this season, tying last season’s 37 points in 70 games for his career high. At even strength, he’s playing with Nick Cousins and Michael Amadio, so it’s not like Pinto’s production is getting propped up by strong linemates, but he does do most of his damage at evens, recording 32 of his 37 points at even strength.

#12 One of the players that has been covered the most in these 20 Fantasy Points articles this season is Penguins winger Anthony Mantha, who is having the best season of his career while coming off a torn ACL suffered while playing for the Calgary Flames last season. He has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal during a six-game point streak and is up to 26 goals and 53 points for the season, both of which are career highs. He is skating on a line with rookie Ben Kindel and fellow towering winger Justin Brazeau.

#13 While the San Jose Sharks have other young players that command more of the spotlight – and justifiably so – winger Collin Graf has shown that he can be a valuable contributor in the NHL. Graf joined the Sharks after putting up 49 points in 34 games for Quinnipiac in 2023-2024 and split last season between the AHL and NHL. This season, his most common linemates have been Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, which is obviously a great situation for him. Right now, Tyler Toffoli is on the right side with Graf and Celebrini and Graf has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal in 10 games this month.

#14 He is not the player that he was during his peak years, but 37-year-old Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane can still deliver the goods offensively. With Dylan Larkin out of the lineup, Andrew Copp has stepped into the No. 1 centre spot for the Red Wings, between Kane and Alex DeBrincat, and Kane has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past seven games. His ice time is up over 19 minutes per game in that span, suggesting that the Red Wings are leaning on him more as they fight for their playoff lives.

#15 Tampa Bay Lightning left winger Gage Goncalves has shown flashes in his first two NHL campaigns, using his speed to create chances, and he is getting a prime opportunity right now, skating on a line with Brayden Point at centre and Jake Guentzel on right wing. In his past nine games, Goncalves has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 17 shots on goal, which is remarkable production for a player averaging 13:32 of ice time per game.

#16 The season has certainly not gone the way that the St. Louis Blues might have hoped, but down seasons for teams can provide pockets of fantasy value for specific players. Case in point: veteran defenceman Cam Fowler has contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past eight games even though young defencemen Philip Broberg and Logan Mailloux are ahead of Fowler on the power play depth chart.

#18 The Washington Capitals are fading from playoff contention, and their big guns are firing blanks at an inopportune time as they are 3-4-1 in their past eight games. Alex Ovechkin, who is 40 years old, has two points (1 G, 1 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past seven games. It’s not going any better for playmaking centre Dylan Strome, who has two assists and 10 shots on goal in the past seven games. Defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who leads NHL defencemen with 23 goals, has three points (1 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past eight games. Maybe the Capitals can turn their attention to Cole Hutson, the 19-year-old defenceman who was a second-round pick in 2024. Hutson, the younger brother of Montreal Canadiens star Lane Hutson, signed with the Capitals after scoring 32 points (10 G, 22 A) in 35 games during his sophomore season at Boston University. Hutson made his mark with a goal and three shots on goal while playing 16:24 against Ottawa in his NHL debut

#19 While there is some uncertainty about the Montreal Canadiens’ goaltending, with Samuel Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and rookie Jacob Fowler all options, Dobes is doing his part to claim the crease. Since the trade deadline, Dobes has a .917 save percentage in five starts and his 7.86 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) ranks first among goaltenders in that time, ahead of Jeremy Swayman (7.67), Logan Thompson (7.43), Sergei Bobrovsky (6.28), and Joel Hofer (5.98).

#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum, since the trade deadline, Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood has struggled, with a .791 save percentage in four starts and his -6.92 GSAx is worst in the league, below even Brandon Bussi (-5.05), Connor Hellebuyck (-4.76), Tristan Jarry (-4.74), and Jacob Markstrom (-4.68). It is a very difficult situation for fantasy managers to deal with a slumping goaltender at any time, but especially when it’s a goaltender for a very strong team, who can usually be relied upon to contribute wins, but when those slumps hit, the goaltending numbers can go south quickly and with fantasy playoffs coming soon, it’s tough to pin all of your season’s hopes on one guy. For this reason, having multiple options is always the best approach. If you can get away with not starting Blackwood or Bussi while they are in the midst of a slump, then it could improve potential outcomes.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

McKeen’s 2025-26 All-Star Fantasy Team

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Oct 2025 19:19:05 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Los Angeles Kings right wing Quinton Byfield (55) skates during an NHL hockey game against the Detroit Red Wings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

Value is the name of the game when drafting or auctioning your fantasy hockey roster.

At the top end of the draft, the familiar names will go because every team needs the foundation that can be provided by superstars – Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Cale Makar, Connor Hellebuyck etc. – but after a few rounds, there is more often a determination to be made about whether the juice is worth the squeeze when picking some players.

Finding players who can exceed their expected value is a great way to thrive in fantasy hockey, so finding players who have a higher ceiling can be worthwhile. It might mean missing on a few picks, because there is risk involved, so it’s unlikely that you will hit on every value selection but hitting on Martin Necas when his scoring jumped by 30 points last season was great value if you got it.

The objective is to find players who will surpass expectations and sometimes that process can be assisted by expectations being lowered for whatever reason.

Where does one look to find players that have the value of fantasy all-stars?

Good Health

Injuries have an element of bad luck to them and there is no way to know who is and isn’t going to be injured. However, if a player has a track record of having injury problems, that must be taken into account when evaluating their range of outcomes for the upcoming season. The Devils’ Jack Hughes is a prime example. He is good for more than a point-per-game when he plays but has a tendency to get hurt. If you’re picking a player who gets hurt frequently, you have added an extra element of risk where it did not need to exist. There will come a point, however, at which the risk is worth the reward.

New Opportunities

Fantasy hockey value can be found when production meets opportunity and one of the ways for a player to make a big leap forward in his production is to land somewhere with more ice time available to them. It could still be on their same team, or maybe they need to move to another club, but 2-3 more minutes of ice time per game is a good launching pad for more production.

Elevated Play

Progress is not linear, so it can’t be assumed that every young player will continue to score more and more all the way throughout their careers. At the same time, it tends to be players in their second, third, and fourth years in the league that are the prime candidates to elevate their play and become straight-up better than they were the year before.

Track Record

When seeking players who will provide more value, don’t shy away from players who have proven their level of play, but maybe ran into a down season. Maybe it was a low shooting percentage or low on-ice shooting percentage, or injuries or the wrong linemates or a bad coach to blame for whatever went wrong last season. If the player has been productive in the past, it’s easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when faced with some statistical complications.

Last season’s best hits on the Fantasy All-Stars included Tomas Hertl, Logan Cooley, Tom Wilson, Matthew Knies, Marco Rossi and Mikhail Sergachev, all of whom increased their scoring by at least 20 points compared to the previous season. Here is the 2025-2026 edition of McKeen’s Fantasy All-Stars.

FORWARDS

Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles

After breaking through with 55 points (20 G, 35 A) primarily as a winger during the 2023-2024 season, Byfield saw his ice time climb more than two minutes per game primarily at center last season, but he finished with 54 points (23 G, 31 A). That might be seen as a little disappointing, but it provides a prime opportunity for the 23-year-old to bust out this season. He offers a rare combination of size, speed, and skill, and Byfield should be ready to take his game to a new level in his third full NHL season.

Matias Maccelli, RW, Toronto

The skilled winger had a career-high 57 points (17 G, 40 A) in 2023-2024 before completely falling out of favour in Utah last season. His ice time dropped 2:30 per game and he managed just 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 55 games before getting traded to Toronto this summer. This presents a fantastic opportunity for Maccelli, because with Mitch Marner leaving for Las Vegas, there is a spot available for Maccelli to step in and fill the vacated first-line right wing role. Maccelli is a quality playmaker and if he gets the chance to skate regularly with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, Maccelli’s production could soar.

Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Carolina

A talented power forward, Svechnikov suffered with a low (7.5 percent) on-ice shooting percentage on his way to scoring 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 72 games last season. That was his lowest points per game since his rookie season in 2018-2019. It was undeniably a down season for Svechnikov, but that’s what makes him more readily available for fantasy managers this season and it is still entirely reasonable to expect 60-plus points and at least 140 hits out of Svechnikov, which makes him quite valuable.

Nikolaj Ehlers, RW, Carolina

There has been little dispute about whether Ehlers was a good player in Winnipeg. He was an excellent player who drove play consistently and has had four seasons with at least 60 points, including last season, when he had 63 points (24 G, 39 A) in 69 games. The more difficult part is that he has played fewer than 16 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and the opportunity could be there for Ehlers to play on Carolina’s first line and first power play, which could boost his ice time, raising the bar for his potential production.

Marco Kasper, C, Detroit

After a strong finish to his rookie season, which included 14 points (9 G, 5 A) and 44 shots on goal in his last 18 games, Kasper is looking to play a much bigger role in his second campaign. Kasper averaged 17:43 of ice time per game in that 18-game stretch, which is a couple of minutes more than he did before that, so if he maintains that kind of role, playing 17-18 minutes per game, then Kasper is likely set to increase his production this year. Making the jump to 50-plus points is a fair expectation and Kasper had 156 hits last season, so he offers well-rounded fantasy value.

Mathew Barzal, C, N.Y. Islanders

An injury-plagued 2024-2025 season saw Barzal manage just 20 points (6 G, 14 A) in 30 games, one season after putting up 80 points (23 G, 57 A) in 80 games for the Islanders. Barzal’s underlying numbers were still excellent, with the Islanders controlling 61.6 percent of expected goals with Barzal on the ice during five-on-five play. What undermined his production last season was the Islanders’ terrible power play, so if Barzal can stay reasonably healthy, there should be some regression on the power play, and his point totals could push a point-per-game once again.

Will Cuylle, LW, N.Y. Rangers

Cuylle saw his point total jump from 21 points in 2023-2024 to 45 points (20 G, 256 A) last season, with his ice time climbing by nearly four minutes per game. He is a hard-working physical winger who delivered 301 hits last season and, even if he might not have the highest offensive ceiling, it appears that he should have a shot to play in the Rangers’ top six right from the start of this season. That is an opportunity to play with skilled players who can complement Cuylle’s gritty game. If he continues to improve, and keeps playing the body, Cuylle has a chance to be very valuable for fantasy managers.

Cole Perfetti, RW, Winnipeg

A 23-year-old winger who put up a career-high 50 points (18 G, 32 A) last season, his third season in the National Hockey League, Perfetti has been showing steady improvement in his career, and the arrow appears to be moving up in all areas. His ice time was up, his point production was up, his hits climbed from 26 to 71, and that should all indicate a greater level of trust under head coach Scott Arniel. Let that continue and a smart competitive player like Perfetti will find a way to produce even more.

Ville Koivunen, RW, Pittsburgh

A second-round pick of the Carolina Panthers, Koivunen was acquired as part of the trade for Jake Guentzel in 2024 and Koivunen responded with 56 points (21 G, 35 A) in 63 AHL games last season, earning a promotion to Pittsburgh, where he added seven assists in eight games. While those are encouraging numbers, it’s even more positive that Koivunen looks like he will be in Pittsburgh’s top six and that’s even with Rickard Rakell and Bryant Rust on the roster, and both veterans have been on the trade block for quite some time. If they get moved, that could mean even more playing time for Koivunen.

Boone Jenner, LW, Columbus

A veteran winger who plays hard and fills a lot of categories, Jenner has had some injury issues in recent seasons, including 2024-2025 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery. But, with more time between that surgery and the new season, Jenner should fill a strong complementary role in Columbus, playing in the top six and on the Blue Jacket’s No. 1 power play unit. He had 19 points (7 G, 12 A) with 70 shots on goal in 26 games last season, an effective performance when returning from injury, and he contributes hits and blocked shots, too, so Jenner is a well-rounded contributor when he’s in the lineup.

Connor Zary, RW, Calgary

A first-round pick in 2020, Zary produced 27 points (13 G, 14 A) in 54 games last season, his second season in the NHL, but he has potential for much more. Nine of Zary’s points came on the power play, so he does have a role with the man advantage and that raises his offensive potential, The first reason to be more optimistic about Zary is that he has a chance to play in a prominent role, potentially on a line with veterans Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau. Another reason to like Zary to score more this season is that, like many Flames players, he had a low on-ice shooting percentage (6.0 percent) last season and that is a number that is ripe for regression.

Jiri Kulich, C, Buffalo

A 21-year-old who has already played two AHL seasons, Kulich contributed 24 points (15 G, 9 A) in 62 games for the Sabres last season. He is a talented player with strong puck skills, which is fine, there are lots of young players who can claim that, but Kulich is looking at an opportunity to possibly play with Tage Thompson on the Sabres’ top line and Thompson is a two-time 40-goal scorer, so if Kulich gets that spot, and finds a place on Buffalo’s top power play unit, then there is a chance for his numbers to jump significantly this season.

DEFENSE

Sam Rinzel, D, Chicago

A 2022 first-round pick, Rinzel is a 6-foot-4, puck-moving defenceman who is set to take on a huge role for the Blackhawks. In two seasons at the University of Minnesota, he had 60 points (12 G, 48 A) in 79 games and when his sophomore season ended, he jumped straight into the Blackhawks lineup. He contributed five assists and 22 shots on goal with 12 hits in nine games for Chicago, with three of those points coming on the power play and, going into the 2025-2026 season, Rinzel would be the leading candidate to quarterback the Blackhawks’ power play this season.

Rasmus Andersson, D, Calgary

A steady veteran blueliner who is heading for unrestricted free agency next summer, Andersson will be highly motivated to perform, and he was another Flames player undermined by a low on-ice shooting percentage last season. There were 138 defencemen that played at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes last season and none of them had a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Andersson’s 5.7 percent. Not only that, but the player ranked 137, Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson, was at 6.2 percent, so it wasn’t close. Anyway, regression should work in Andersson’s favour and he should soar past last season’s 31 points (11 G, 20 A).

Olen Zellweger, D, Anaheim

A nimble puck-moving defenceman, Zellweger has great instincts and the confidence to make plays, which could make him the primary quarterback on the Ducks’ power play this season. He has 29 points (9 G, 20 A) in 88 games for the Ducks across the past two seasons, but his track record, from dominating in the Western Hockey League to putting up 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 AHL games for San Diego in 2023-2024, there is a path to him being a quality point producer in the NHL.

Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh

It’s not often that a 38-year-old defenceman might be a valuable fantasy pick, but Letang has a chance, in part because he’s one of the few proven performers on the Penguins blueline and if Erik Karlsson gets moved, as has been rumoured for a while, then Letang could return to Pittsburgh’s top power play unit. Even without that hypothetical, he has recorded at least 100 hits and 100 blocked shots in each of the past four seasons, so he offers well-rounded value, especially if he puts up more than last season’s total of 30 points, his lowest since 2013-2014.

John Klingberg, D, San Jose

Having played a total of 25 regular-season games over the past two seasons, it looked like Klingberg’s days of being a productive NHL defencemen were coming to an end, but he had a good opportunity to play for the Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs and secured a contract with the San Jose Sharks. It’s a good landing spot for Klingberg because he’s the best option on the blueline in San Jose to run the power play and with skilled young players up front, it might even be a productive unit.

Travis Sanheim, D, Philadelphia

A veteran blueliner who played a career-high 24:30 per game last season and earned a spot on Team Canada at the Four Nations Face-Off, Sanheim is the most reliable defender on the Flyers blueline and that includes being able to stay in the lineup, as he has missed five games in the past five seasons. This is relevant because Sanheim is slated to quarterback Philadelphia’s second power play unit, with Jamie Drysdale running the No. 1 unit for the Flyers. Drysdale has had more trouble staying healthy, and Sanheim could step into that PP1 role at some point.

GOAL

Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston

The Bruins may not have a great squad in front of him this season, but Swayman had a down season in 2024-2025, arriving in camp late after an extended contract negotiation, but the Bruins also lost defencemen Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy, their two best defenders by a healthy margin, to significant injuries. If the defence is healthy in front of him, and Swayman bounces back to his previous level of play, he can be a valuable starting netminder.

Karel Vejmelka, G, Utah

With turmoil in Utah’s crease last season, Vejmelka stepped up and played at a high level while appearing in a career-high 58 games. If he can merely duplicate that season, he should be very valuable because the Mammoth have a strong enough team that they should be in the playoff mix, which means that Vejmelka will have the chance to put up quality fantasy numbers.

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – BOSTON BRUINS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Josh Bell — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 18:56:19 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 06: Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (1) eyes a shot during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames on February 6, 2024, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

To say things went sideways last season is putting it lightly. The Bruins went from having 109 points and finishing second in the Atlantic Division in 2023-2024 to dead last in the Eastern Conference and 76 points in 2024-2025. They fired coach Jim Montgomery only to see him join the St. Louis Blues and rally them to the playoffs while interim Joe Sacco couldn’t help pull the Bruins out of the hole they dug themselves. That led to seeing general manager Don Sweeney pull the plug and trade captain Brad Marchand to Florida and defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto at the trade deadline. While David Pastrnak continued to be brilliant and Morgan Geekie had a big season, No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman struggled all year after he missed training camp while he awaited a new contract. Injuries to defencemen Charlie McAvoy (50 games played) and Hampus Lindholm (17 games played) for a bulk of the season made matters that much worse and if they could burn the tape of the whole year, they would. Unfortunately, they’ll have to take a long look in the mirror to figure out if this is something they can turn around or if a rebuild of some kind is needed.

What’s Changed?

Marco Sturm is back in Boston and this time he’ll be behind the bench as a first-time NHL head coach. He replaces Sacco who had the unfortunate task of trying to turn things around midway through last season. Sturm comes over from the Ontario Reign in the AHL where he led them to the playoffs in each of his three seasons. Previously to that, he was an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Kings under Todd McLellan. On top of the new coach, the Bruins expect to have McAvoy and Lindholm back on the blue line. Free agency was quiet, however. They brought back forward Sean Kuraly and added forwards Michael Eyissmont and Tanner Jeannot and defenceman Jordan Harris. Adding Viktor Arvidsson via trade from Edmonton gives them a guy with a history of scoring on the wing. Being near the cap ceiling has its downsides and having to budget signings was a big part of that for Boston. Fans that wanted big roster additions were dealt a hard dose of reality.

What Would Success Look Like?

The bar is set differently for Boston and getting back to the playoffs is a priority given they have one of the league’s elite scorers in his prime in Pastrnak (43 goals and 107 points last season). A return to form from Swayman and healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm will have the Bruins back in a place where they can be more back to normal for them. If Geekie can replicate what he did last season when he scored 33 goals while getting stronger seasons from Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, they can be right back in the hunt for the playoffs. The Bruins don’t lack talent; they lack depth and depth of talent which means injuries and slumps are their worst enemies. It also puts enormous pressure on Sweeney to shore things up.

What Could Go Wrong?

If Swayman’s erratic performance last season was less a factor of not having a training camp and more about his play coming back to Earth, that would be a worse-case scenario. What helped make Boston so good in previous years was being able to split time with two goalies who could stay fresh and pick each other up. When Swayman struggled, Joonas Korpisalo couldn’t always pick up the slack as the backup. Should Geekie be unable to replicate his offensive output and McAvoy and Lindholm struggle coming back from injury, the Bruins’ season will be a slog for them to keep up while the rest of the Atlantic Division throw haymakers at each other to get to the playoffs. It’s the NHL’s toughest division and any kind of slip up can end a season prematurely.

Top Breakout Candidate

The biggest factor in becoming a breakout player is the opportunity to do it and that’s what Marat Khusnutdinov will have. The Bruins acquired the forward from Minnesota in March for Justin Brazeau and at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, he’s got the size and skills to get in and out of trouble with ease. In 91 career games he’s got six goals and 10 assists, but if he can take advantage of the opportunity he’ll have in Boston to get ice time, the 2020 second-round pick will have the opportunity to take a big step forward with his game.

FORWARDS

David Pastrnak

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	45	58	103	1.26

In the past four seasons, Pastrnak has scored 191 goals, putting him third in the NHL, behind only Auston Matthews (202) and Leon Draisaitl (200). Pastrnak has reached that total with a solid foundation – he leads the NHL with 1,420 shots on goal over that period of time. As the Bruins move through what appears to be a period of transition, Pastrnak is clearly the most talented player on the team and, as he showed last season, he can produce at an elite level no matter what the situation is with his supporting cast. So, even as the Bruins faded from playoff contention, in his last 38 games, Pastrnak put up an astonishing 64 points (26 G, 38 A), pushing him past 40 goals and 100 points for the third consecutive season. He was runner-up for the Hart Trophy in 2022-2023, when he scored 61 goals, but it might take a little while for the Bruins to bounce back into a suitably competitive level that will get him those kinds of accolades, but his performance in recent seasons warrants that kind of respect. Having heaped this praise upon him, it would still be helpful if the Bruins could improve the quality of talent around Pastrnak so that he doesn’t have to carry such a heavy load. As it is, Pastrnak has a superb wrist shot and has improved his ability to put the puck on net. He remains one of the few players in the league with a legitimate chance to score 50 goals and 100 points and that should be where expectations sit for him going into the 2025-2026 season.

Morgan Geekie

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	38	27	65	0.79

Following a couple of seasons of steady progress, Geekie erupted last season with career highs of 33 goals and 57 points. Geekie tallied 29 even-strength goals, which was tied for eighth in the NHL. As encouraging as that might be, he also scored on 22 percent of his shots and that will be extremely difficult to duplicate. Nevertheless, Geekie was given the opportunity to play an offensive role and made the most of it, playing mostly with Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. Playing with quality linemates allowed Geekie to be featured as more of a finisher and he did an excellent job finding open ice and being ready to fire the puck at a moment’s notice. Geekie also uses his 6-foot-3 frame effectively around the net, shielding the puck from defenders and creating just enough room to knock in rebounds or finish off passing plays when he is in-tight. The question now is whether this is indeed the level to which Geekie should be expected to produce, and the answer probably lies in whether he is going to keep playing with Pastrnak. Since last season brought unprecedented production, Geekie is a somewhat risky proposition going into 2025-2026. He is likely to skate on Boston’s first line, but it’s not like he has the track record to believe that he must be in that spot all season, so enthusiasm should be tempered at least a little. As such, 25 goals and 45-50 points is a fair expectation.

Elias Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	37	58	0.71

The Brujns probably held out hope that they would get more offence from Lindholm, who managed 47 points in his first season in Boston, scoring just three goals in his first 32 games. He needed nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his last seven games to even reach that relatively modest point total. In his best years with the Calgary Flames, Lindholm was a premier two-way center who could contribute offensively, recording a career-high 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 2021-2022, while also providing responsible defensive play and he finished as the Selke Trophy runner-up in that 2021-2022 season. What has happened since, however, is a more watered-down version of that player. Lindholm can contribute offensively, but not as much, and his defensive play is solid-to-strong rather than outstanding. If Lindholm is holding down a second-line center spot, he would be a quality option but, on this Bruins team, they could certainly use more from him – the first-line center job is there for the taking! Last season, Lindholm’s most common linemates were Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Charlie Coyle, two of whom are no longer in Boston, so there is an opportunity for Lindholm to move between Geekie and Pastrnak on the top line, but it’s hardly a guarantee. With that uncertainty, Lindholm could be expected to score 20 goals and 50 points but, if he somehow manages to spend a whole season alongside Pastrnak, then those numbers could get significantly better.

Pavel Zacha

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	32	48	0.60

In three seasons with the Bruins, Zacha has been a steady contributor, though last season’s 14 goals counted as his lowest total since 2019-2020. He earned that, unfortunately, with a declining shot rate. His all-situation shot rate of 5.1 shots on goal per 60 minutes was his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017 and it’s difficult to generate offense consistently with so few shots on goal. Over the course of those three seasons, the Bruins have controlled 48.9 percent of shot attempts and 49.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Zacha on the ice, yet the Bruins have earned 58.4 percent of the goal share, so he is riding some favorable percentages in that respect. Zacha does offer versatility in that he can play both center and wing and move up and down the lineup as needed. That his most common linemates last season were Pastrnak and Geekie reflects just how desperate the Bruins are down the middle of the ice and if he ends up as the first line center, it might be good for Zacha, but it’s probably less than ideal for the Bruins. A fair expectation, based on what he has done in three seasons with the Bruins, is for Zacha to score 15-20 goals and 50 points.

Casey Mittelstadt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	16	33	49	0.61

After being a highly touted prospect, drafted eighth overall in 2017, Mittelstadt took quite a while to make his mark with the Buffalo Sabres but he did record a career-high 59 points (15 G, 44 A) in 2022-2023 and had 47 points (13 G, 34 A) in 62 games the following season before getting traded to Colorado. Since then, Mittelstadt has managed 50 points (19 G, 31 A) in 99 games with the Avalanche and Bruins. He has the hands and offensive instincts to tease teams, but it has been a challenge for him to generate consistent offense. To be fair, upon arriving in Boston last season, his most common linemates were Vinny Lettieri and Cole Koepke, so maybe that was not the ideal situation to maximize his scoring contributions, but it would seem worthwhile for the Bruins to put more focus on that objective in 2025-2026. Mittelstadt tends to be passive on the ice and has not done enough in his career to earn even the level of trust that players like Lindholm and Zacha experience, so Mittelstadt is going to have to battle for his role as a center in Boston. He does, however, have some upside because of his puck skills so 15 goals and 45-50 points is not an unreasonable expectation for the 2025-2026 season.

Viktor Arvidsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	18	24	42	0.56

Coming off of an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Arvidsson looked like a good buy-low option for the Edmonton Oilers, figuring that his tenacity and scoring ability would be a good fit in their middle six, but it was not the right fit and he finished with 27 points (15 G, 12 A) in 60 games, his lowest points per game production since his rookie season in 2015-2016. He also played just under 15 minutes per game, which was also his lowest since his rookie season, and his on-ice shooting percentage was a meagre 6.4 percent, so it was not a season that was built for Arvidsson to have success. He is a five-time 20-goal scorer and has twice exceeded 30 goals in a season, so he has offensive credentials and the Bruins ought to be motivated to give Arvidsson the ice time to show what he can do. Arvidsson is the only established forward on the Bruins who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025-2026 season, so if the Bruins are not in playoff contention, he would be a prime trade candidate but would also bring more in trade if he has a productive season. When he is on his game, Arvidsson is a high energy winger who excels on the forecheck and is not shy about launching shots towards the net, with varying degrees of accuracy. He is a consistent play driver and that is reason enough to like his chances to bounce back in Boston. Even allowing that Arvidsson may miss some time with injuries, because that has been his trend lately, he should still have a shot at 15-20 goals and 40 points as a complementary offensive contributor in Boston.

Matthew Poitras

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
28	4	8	12	0.43

A second-round pick in 2023, Poitras has played 33 NHL games in each of the past two seasons, producing a total of 26 points (6 G, 20 A) in 66 games. He did have 41 points (17 G, 24 A) in 40 AHL games last season, which is very encouraging production for his 20-year-old season. Poitras is a young and developing player and his offensive game has not yet broken through in the NHL, but his defensive play has been quite strong in this relatively small sample size. As a result, his Corsi and expected goals percentage both ranked second on the Bruins, so if his AHL production can translate to the next level, then he could turn into a valuable player for the Bruins as they move into a new era. The main area of concern for Poitras is that he has yet to establish his status as a bona fide NHL player, so while there is a world in which he secures a regular spot in the Bruins’ top nine, and that would make sense, there is also the possibility that he ends up on the roster bubble. If he does spend the full season in the NHL, 35 points is a fair expectation for Poitras in 2025-2026.

Tanner Jeannot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	12	21	0.27

One of the more controversial free agent signings this summer, Jeannot received a five-year, $17 million contract from the Bruins, a significant commitment for a player who has struggled on his way to 20 goals and 45 points – total – across the past three seasons. It’s a far cry from his rookie season, in 2021-2022, when he put up 41 points (24 G, 17 A) and for the money they are investing, the Bruins have to hope that there is a path to Jeannot recapturing that scoring touch. He can have an impact on the game beyond scoring, as he tends to play a reliable defensive game, is one of the strongest players in the league, and can be an imposing physical presence. Across the past four seasons, he has recorded 1,030 hits and 401 penalty minutes, ranking sixth in both categories. The Bruins would probably like Jeannot to offer some version of what they used to have with Milan Lucic, a physically intimidating presence who could also put the puck in the net. Maybe there is a way for Jeannot to provide that but, based on the past three seasons, double-digit goals and anything more than 20 points would have to be considered a relative victory.

Michael Eyssimont

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	13	12	25	0.31

A late bloomer who didn’t reach the NHL as a regular until he was 26, Eyssimont is a lunch bucket type of player who shows up, works hard, and isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty. Although he managed a modest 16 points (9 G, 7 A) last season, split between Tampa Bay and Seattle, Eyssimont was an effective player who helped drive play in the right direction. His teams controlled 52.4 percent of shot attempts and 54.3 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Eyssimont on the ice, making him very effective relative to his role on the lower end of the depth chart. Despite not being especially big, listed at 6-feet-0, 191 pounds, Eyssimont has recorded more than 100 hits in three straight seasons and he’s not afraid to drop the gloves if the situation warrants it, too. He is also an exceptional shot generator. Among the 424 forwards to play at least 300 minutes of five-on-five play last season, Eyssimont ranked second (behind Brady Tkachuk) with 10.55 shots on goal per 60 minutes. The unfortunate part for Eyssimont is that he is a low percentage finisher, with a career shooting percentage of 6.0 percent, and that limits his overall effectiveness. Given his ability to generate chances, if Eyssimont could just score on 10 percent of his shots it would surely secure him a bigger role. It’s fair to expect 20-25 points from Eyssimont, which is not a lot, but his hits and penalty minutes could make him more relevant for those in banger leagues.

DEFENSE

Charlie McAvoy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	6	29	35	0.50

A standout blueliner, McAvoy delivers consistently excellent defensive play and was doing so last season, as expected, when he was injured at the Four Nations Face-Off and ended up missing the rest of the season when his shoulder injury got infected. Without McAvoy and after dealing some veterans prior to the trade deadline, the Bruins went 6-15-4 in their last 25 games. The Bruins outscored opponents 34-30 during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice, extending his streak to eight consecutive seasons of the Bruins outscoring opponents with him on the ice. Through those eight seasons, the Bruins have outscored opponents by 138 goals during five-on-five play with McAvoy on the ice. He is a punishing hitter whose physical play is a cornerstone of his all-around effectiveness even while facing top opponents on a nightly basis. While McAvoy is a solid puck-handler and strong passer, he does not have a consistent impact on the power play. Among the 55 defencemen who played at least 50 five-on-four minutes last season, McAvoy ranked 54th with 1.49 points per 60 minutes (ahead of only Brent Burns). Mason Lohrei started to get more power play time for Boston as a result, even before McAvoy suffered his season-ending injury. If McAvoy has some role on the power play, he should be able to get back over 40 points, a threshold that he had crossed in three straight seasons prior to 2024-2025.

Hampus Lindholm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	5	23	28	0.37

An excellent two-way defenceman who has been underrated for much of his career, Lindholm was limited to just 17 games last season due to a knee injury suffered in November. He was very effective in the games that he did play, with the Bruins outshooting and outscoring opponents with him on the ice. A strong skater with a 6-foot-4 frame, Lindholm can be an elite shutdown defender when healthy. In three seasons with the Bruins, he has benefitted from strong goaltending but has also been on the ice for 1.72 goals against per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Among defencemen to play at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across those three seasons, the only defencemen with lower rates of goals against were Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller and Dylan Samberg, all of whom spent at least one season with the Winnipeg Jets, playing in front of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. In any case, if the Bruins get healthy seasons from McAvoy and Lindholm, they will have a much better chance to be competitive in 2025-2026. Lindholm could produce more than 30 points, but he has the potential to have a much greater all-around impact than his point total might suggest.

Nikita Zadorov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	20	24	0.29

A towering presence on the Boston blueline, Zadorov led the NHL with 145 penalty minutes last season and recorded more than 200 hits for the first time since 2018-2019. He averaged a career-high 20:37 of ice time per game and given his relative effectiveness, the Bruins would prefer that he not be tasked with the enforcer role. He can still be that intimidating hard hitter on the blueline, but with Jeannot joining the Bruins, that gives the team another option when it comes time to drop the gloves. Zadorov tends to have limited contributions with the puck, but it’s not like he is completely hopeless. He scored 14 goals for Calgary during the 2022-2023 season and had eight points in 13 playoff games for Vancouver in 2023-2024. That is not the level at which he can be expected to sustain production, but those contributions showed that this huge defender could still contribute offensively. He has recorded at least 20 points in four consecutive seasons, so that is the baseline of expectations heading into 2025-2026, and there is not much likelihood that he will stray too far from that output. For fantasy managers, the hits and penalty minute totals make Zadorov relatively appealing in banger leagues.

Mason Lohrei

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	24	30	0.37

A second-round pick in 2020, Lohrei is a 6-foot-5 blueliner who emerged as an offensive contributor in his second NHL season. He started to get a bigger role on the power play and 16 of his 33 points were scored with the man advantage. While that power play production was encouraging, last season also showed that Lohrei had some trouble handling a bigger role on the Boston blueline, particularly with Lindholm and McAvoy missing so much time with injuries. There were 138 defencemen to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes in 2024-2025 and Lohrei ranked 137th with 3.48 goals against per 60 minutes, ahead of only Chicago’s Alex Vlasic (3.55). While Lohrei’s defensive game could certainly improve, he did have some bad luck contributing to those numbers, as his on-ice save percentage was .881, which was the third lowest among those defenders. It was not goaltender Jeremy Swayman’s finest season, and it had an impact on Lohrei’s defensive results. Looking ahead to 2025-2026, Lohrei should have a more manageable role on the Boston blueline, where he can fill a supporting role as well as getting regular power play time. He should be expected to produce at least 30 points and if he tightens up his defensive game, then Lohrei will go a long way towards securing his place on the Bruins’ depth chart.

Goal

Jeremy Swayman

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
51	20	23	6	3	.902	3.12

Fans could almost feel the moment that the Boston Bruins decided that they were going to strip down and start over last season, and - unfortunately - that included more than just roster moves. Just one season after coming in seventh in Vezina voting, starter Jeremy Swayman picked up a new, uglier league-leading stat last year when he earned the distinction as the goaltender who allowed the most pucks past him over the regular season campaign. His 176 goals allowed were nearly double the average he typically allows in a single season - and while he played in around fifteen more games than is optimal for his best performance, that workload-volume increase certainly didn't account for all of his abysmally poor performance. He was one of the NHL's worst goaltenders in 2024-25, forced to shoulder a harder workload with a weaker tandem partner in Joonas Korpisalo while the skating roster in front of him was slowly but surely shipped out ahead of the trade deadline.

Boston still has a few key core pieces left in their lineup, and Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and David Pastrnak are all still at points in their career where the team could choose to retool and redevelop their lineup to push back into Wild Card contention if they wish. And the good news is that Korpisalo, who started off the season looking lost positionally for the Bruins, started to settle in from a technical standpoint as the year wore on - so he might be able to shoulder more minutes to give Swayman a bit of a break. But where there used to be one of the most formidable tandems in the league, things look relatively bleak in Boston - and unless Swayman comes back looking ready for action, this could be a tough year in net.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Dustin Wolf makes strong case for the Calder Trophy – Teams and Players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:57:59 +0000

Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf (32) (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Two months ago, I took a look at the Calder Trophy race, highlighting Macklin Celebrini, Lane Hutson and Dustin Wolf as the favorites, but I also didn’t go into depth about the Flames goaltender because netminders typically don’t do well in Calder Trophy voting. As noted, Steve Mason was the last goaltender to win it back in 2008-09, and he was so good that campaign -- 33-20-7 record, 2.29 GAA and .916 save percentage -- that he finished in Vezina Trophy voting in addition to winning the Calder Trophy. So, the bar Wolf would have to reach to finish ahead of Celebrini and Hutson, who have been impressive in their own right, is high.

Even if he doesn’t end up getting the Calder, though, Wolf deserves recognition for what he’s doing because it’s not an exaggeration to say that the 23-year-old rookie is the single biggest reason Calgary has a legitimate shot of making the playoffs. Wolf has a 22-12-5 record, 2.53 GAA and .915 save percentage in 39 starts this campaign. He might not be a Vezina Trophy contender like Mason was in his rookie campaign, but Wolf is in a four-way tie for fifth in save percentage (min. 20 games played), so he’s certainly one of the league’s top netminders.

His numbers look even better when you consider that Calgary is tied for 20th in xGA/60 (3.11), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of him has been average at best. That’s also reflected in his Goals Saved Above Expected, which stands at 16.5, the sixth best in the league. That puts him just behind Andrei Vasilevskiy (17.1), which is good company to be in.

Meanwhile, the Flames have done nothing to help him offensively. The Flames rank last in goals per game with 2.56. Among teams that have averaged 2.60 goals per game or fewer dating back to 2020-21, Calgary at 30-23-11 is the only team with a points percentage above .500 (.555). The next best is the 2021-22 Sharks, who finished at 32-37-13 for a .470 points percentage. What about finishing last in scoring but still managing a points percentage above .500? The last team to do that were the 2015-16 Devils, who finished 38-36-8 on the strength of Cory Schneider (2.15 GAA, .924 save percentage). Even then, those Devils didn’t come close to making the playoffs, so Calgary might one-up them in that metric.

It’s fair to say what Wolf’s doing is rare: taking a team with a mediocre defense and a rock-bottom offense and guiding the squad toward a potential playoff berth. Is that enough to win the Calder? It’s tough to say because it’s so subjective. Lane Hutson is a rookie defenseman who has already breached the 50-point mark and might reach 60 before the season is over. That almost never happens. Chris Chelios had 64 points back in 1984-85 and would have secured the Calder if that wasn’t also the rookie season of Mario Lemieux (43 goals, 100 points). Meanwhile, Macklin Celebrini’s production isn’t quite as rare if we’re judging him against past rookie forwards, but it’s still worth emphasizing that he’s reached the 20-goal mark despite injury and isn’t too far below a point per game. Comparing them is difficult because they serve completely different roles.

Whatever the case, though, Calgary without Wolf would have been a far different and likely substantially worse team this campaign.

Boston Bruins (Mon vs BUF, Thu @ VGK, Sat @ SJS, Sun @ LAK)

Boston isn’t out of the playoff race yet, but after going 3-7-2 from Feb. 5-March 13, the Bruins’ chances of making the postseason seem increasingly bleak. They need a strong week, and the Bruins will be facing two non-playoff teams in Buffalo, who they host Monday, and San Jose, who they have a road matchup against Saturday. However, the Bruins will also have two difficult road clashes in Vegas on Thursday and Los Angeles on Sunday, so there will be challenges for them to overcome.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Boston has won two of its past three games since the trade deadline, despite its longer-term struggles and being a deadline day seller. It helps that one of the few NHL-ready assets the Bruins did get back, Casey Mittelstadt, has kicked off his Boston career with a three-game scoring streak (one goal, two assists). He’s centering the second line, which isn’t a glamorous assignment given the state of the Bruins’ depth, but he is on the first power-play unit, which has already led to him collecting an assist on David Pastrnak’s goal Tuesday.

Speaking of, the dismantling of his supporting cast and the team edging toward rebuild mode doesn’t seem to have demoralized David Pastrnak. He has two goals and two assists in Boston’s three games post-deadline, extending his overall scoring streak to five games (two goals, five assists). He also ranks fifth among all players with 82 points and is tied for fourth in goals with 34. If Boston manages to squeak into the playoffs, he’ll be a big part of the reason why.

Maybe Jeremy Swayman can play a role in guiding them down the stretch too, but that’s hard to count on. Although his early campaigns were great, his 2024-25 GAA and save percentage of 2.98 and .897, respectively, are unimpressive, and a big part of that is inconsistency. For example, he earned two straight wins from March 8-11 while saving 51 of 53 shots (.962 save percentage), but he followed that up with a stinker against Ottawa in which he surrendered four goals in the first period, leading to the yank.

Ottawa is a division rival, and the holder of a wild-card spot, which makes the loss all the more painful. Boston is now seven points back of Ottawa. The Bruins are a mere two points behind Columbus, which holds the second wild-card spot, though Boston has played in two more games and is also contending for that spot with the Rangers, Montreal and Detroit -- combine with Boston and Columbus, all five teams are within a two-point range through Thursday’s action.

Chicago Blackhawks (Tue vs SEA, Thu vs LAK, Sat @ STL, Sun vs PHI)

Staring down the barrel of a possible rebuild, what Boston likely fears is going down the path of Chicago. Sure, the Blackhawks have picked up some remarkable young talent along the way, but Chicago is on course to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year and seventh time in eight seasons. Technically it’s even worse than that, because the lone time Chicago made the playoffs in that span in 2019-20 when the COVID lockdown led to the league expanding the postseason system, causing Chicago to participate despite a 32-30-8 record and last-place finish in the Central Division.

Either way, Chicago isn’t just looking at another season without playoff action, the Blackhawks seem no where near being competitive. After losing a third straight game Thursday, Chicago is 20-37-9. Maybe they’ll be able to finish on a high note? Chicago has a busy week ahead of it, mostly against teams that aren’t presently in a playoff spot. The Blackhawks will host Seattle on Tuesday and the Kings on Thursday. They’ll then take to the road to play in St. Louis on Saturday before returning home to host Philadelphia on Sunday.

If you’re looking for good news, it’s that Spencer Knight has looked decent since being acquired from Florida as part of the Seth Jones trade. He’s 2-2-0 with a 2.24 GAA and a .928 save percentage in four starts with Chicago. That’s a small sample size, but he also held his own with Florida this campaign -- he had a 12-8-1 record, 2.40 GAA and .907 save percentage in 23 outings pre-trade -- and his potential has been known for a while. Still just 23 years old, Chicago might have found its long-term answer in net. Chicago dealt Petr Mrazek to Detroit, so Knight is likely to see most of the starts for the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, other parts of the Blackhawks’ young core have been unimpressive recently. Lukas Reichel, 22, hasn’t recorded a point in his past five games and remains at 19 points (six goals) across 57 appearances. Although there have been high expectations put on the No. 17 overall pick from the 2020 NHL Draft, he hasn’t been able to consistently perform offensively at the NHL level despite collecting 42 goals and 116 points across 121 career regular-season AHL games.

More importantly, Connor Bedard has struggled to make any progress in his sophomore season, and he’s been especially cold recently, supplying just a goal and three points over his past 11 appearances. That gives him 17 goals and 52 points in 66 outings in 2024-25, which is great stuff for a 19-year-old but puts him behind the 22 goals and 61 points in 68 appearances he recorded as a rookie. Ultimately, growing pains as a sophomore is nothing to panic over, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he still manages to end the season on a positive note.

In the meantime, it’s the veterans who are getting the job done for Chicago. The 28-year-old Ryan Donato has been incredible lately with eight goals and 20 points across his past 15 appearances, while the 30-year-old Teuvo Teravainen has four goals and 17 points in 14 outings. Please note that Donato is set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, so even if the Blackhawks have no hope of making the playoffs, he is playing for his next contract, which should help keep him going as we enter the final stretch of the campaign.

Los Angeles Kings (Mon @ MIN, Thu @ CHI, Sat vs CAR, Sun vs BOS)

The Kings won their fourth straight game when they shutdown the Capitals 3-0 on Thursday. That streak has elevated them into the second seed in the Pacific Division, though they have just a one-point edge over Edmonton, albeit with a game in hand, so the Kings need to maintain their momentum in order to secure the home-ice advantage in the first round. They’ll start the week on the road with contests in Minnesota on Monday and Chicago on Thursday. The Kings will then host the Hurricanes and the Bruins on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Shutting out the Capitals is no small feat, so Darcy Kuemper, who made 21 saves, deserves recognition for pulling that off against his former team. The goaltender is on a roll, stopping 101 of 105 shots (.962 save percentage) across his past four starts (3-0-1). He’s also been an important part of the Kings’ success overall with a 21-8-7 record, 2.23 GAA and .916 save percentage in 37 outings. What a comeback he’s had after a disastrous 2023-24 campaign with Washington (13-14-3 record, 3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage). It provides a little silver lining to the whole Pierre-Luc Dubois saga, though it has to be said that Dubois has done well in Washington (17 goals, 57 points), so the Kuemper-Dubois swap has ultimately worked out for both sides.

For those who aren’t aware, there was a brief time when Dubois was seen as a possible successor up the middle for the aging Anze Kopitar. That didn’t go as the Kings had hoped, but fortunately Anze Kopitar hasn’t needed a replacement just yet. The 37-year-old has three goals and seven points in his past seven outings, giving him 16 goals and 53 points in 64 appearances in 2024-25. It looks like he’ll finish just below the 70-point mark, but he should still hit 60 for the seventh time in eight seasons.

The 22-year-old Quinton Byfield is also giving the Kings reason for optimism about the future of their center group. Although he’ll likely finish below the 55-points he provided in 2023-24, Byfield has shown flashes of what he’s capable of this campaign, including his active five-game goal-scoring streak. He’s up to 16 markers and 39 points in 64 outings this season.

Nashville Predators (Tue vs STL, Thu vs ANA, Sat vs TOR, Sun @ STL)

The chances of Nashville making the playoffs are near zero, but the Predators would like to at least finish the campaign on a high note. To that end, Nashville has won four straight going into Friday’s action. The Predators will attempt to extend that run of strong play next week, starting with home games against St. Louis on Tuesday, Anaheim on Thursday and Toronto on Saturday. The Predators will finish the week on the road against St. Louis.

Steven Stamkos has been a huge part of the Predators’ recent success, providing five goals and nine points across that four-game winning streak. His 22 goals and 42 points in 64 outings is still disappointing when measured against his 80-plus points in each of his previous three campaigns, but the 35-year-old clearly still has something left in the tank. Don’t dismiss the possibility of 2025-26 being a comeback season for him -- he might provide great value for those who select him in 2025 fantasy drafts.

I’m less confident about Juuse Saros bouncing back. Even while winning his past three starts, Saros hasn’t looked special, stopping just 65 of 73 shots (.890 save percentage). His goals saved above expected is minus-4.1 this season, suggesting that he’s been below average even if you factor out the Predators’ defense, and he was a similarly underwhelming minus-3.0 last season. He’s still just 29 (30 on April 19), so it’s not like a comeback is impossible. You look at a guy like Sergei Bobrovsky, and you can see how a goaltender can be inconsistent on yearly basis but still average out to be a phenomenal netminder. Even still, I’m at the point where I need to see results from Saros before I’ll start to believe in him again. As it stands, I’d be somewhat worried if I was the Predators’ GM given that his eight-year, $61.92 million contract doesn’t even start until next season.

I’m also not big on the idea that Jonathan Marchessault will do better next season. He has 19 goals and 48 points in 64 appearances this campaign, down from 42 goals and 69 points in 82 appearances with Vegas in 2023-24. The issue is that last season was an outlier from him in terms of goal scoring -- other than that, he’s never done better than 30 markers. He accomplished that feat thanks to his 15.8 shooting percentage, well above his career average of 11.5, so his showing in 2024-25 represents a regression toward the norm. It is noteworthy that he’s managed just 9.4 shots per 60 minutes this season -- he recorded between 10.8-12.4 in each campaign from 2017-18 through 2023-24 -- so perhaps he’ll be somewhat more aggressive next season, leading to a handful of additional goals, but that’s about the most you can hope for.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon @ PHI, Thu @ WAS, Sat @ DAL, Sun @ CHI)

The Flyers earned a 4-3 shootout win over Tampa Bay on Thursday to end their five-game losing streak, but at 28-31-8, Philadelphia’s chances of making the playoffs seem remote. The task won’t be made any easier next week. The Flyers will be on the road, playing in Tampa Bay on Monday, Washington on Thursday, Dallas on Saturday and Chicago on Sunday.

No Flyers player is particularly hot offensively at the moment, and that includes 20-year-old Matvei Michkov. To be fair, he recorded an impressive six goals and 13 points in nine games from Feb. 6-March 8, but he’s been held off the scoresheet for Philadelphia’s past three outings. The rookie’s talent is without question, but he’s been extremely streaky this season, so be prepared for this cold stretch to potentially last another week or two.

Maybe Bobby Brink is at the beginning of a hot streak, though. He was amazing versus Tampa Bay on Thursday, supplying two goals and an assist. That’s just his fourth multi-point game of the campaign, but don’t get too excited: The previous three times he had a multi-point showing, it didn’t lead to a notable stretch of offensive success. He also has a meh 10 goals and 32 points in 64 appearances overall.

There’s nothing much to jump on in goal either. Ivan Fedotov did have a nice stretch from March 1-9, stopping 75 of 80 shots (.938 save percentage) in three appearances, but even then, the Flyers provided him with just one win in that stretch, and that good run ended Tuesday anyway when he allowed four goals on 23 shots to Ottawa.

If you’re looking for fantasy value, there just isn't much to be found here at this time. However, while I’m pessimistic about Michkov in the short term, the flip side of his streaky nature is that he should rebound eventually -- and likely in a big way.

St. Louis Blues (Tue @ NAS, Thu vs VAN, Sat vs CHI, Sun vs NAS)

St. Louis will start next with in Nashville, capping off an exhausting stretch in which the Blues played seven of eight games from March 2-18 on the road. After that, they’ll get to sleep in their own beds for a while. The Blues will host the Canucks on Thursday, the Blackhawks on Saturday and the Predators on Sunday.

The Blues are 31-28-7 and sit just two points out of a playoff position through Thursday’s action. There’s plenty of competition for that second wild-card spot, but it is fair to say that St. Louis is still playing for something with roughly a month left in the regular-season schedule.

This would certainly be a good time for Jordan Binnington to get hot again. He’s had his moments, especially during the 4 Nations Face-Off, but he’s struggled recently with a 2-2-0 record, 3.49 GAA and .846 save percentage across his past four appearances. Unfortunately, he’s just been too inconsistent to count on, but he’s still appeared in seven of St. Louis’ past nine games, so it seems safe to say the Blues will lean on him over Joel Hofer in the final weeks of the season.

Maybe Binnington will get sufficient goal support to make his occasional struggles moot. Dylan Holloway is certainly doing his best, supplying five goals and eight points across his past nine games. He’s up to 21 goals, 48 points and 138 hits in 66 appearances in 2024-25. This is with the benefit of hindsight, but Edmonton has to be asking itself if declining to match the Blues’ two-year, $4.58 million offer sheet was really the right move, even after factoring in the Oilers’ tricky cap situation.

Zachary Bolduc is another young forward leading the Blues’ push for a playoff spot. The 21-year-old has six goals and seven points across his past eight games, elevating him to 12 goals and 25 points in 56 outings overall. I’m not confident Bolduc will continue to be productive over the final month of the season, but Bolduc is a former No. 17 overall pick (2021 draft), so this kind of offensive outburst isn’t coming out of nowhere.

The veteran Brayden Schenn had been doing his part too, supplying three goals and 10 points in nine games from Feb. 8-March 7. However, he was held off the scoresheet in each of St. Louis’ past two games, so that hot streak might be at its end. The 33-year-old has 14 goals and 40 points in 66 appearances in 2024-25.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon vs PHI, Thu @ DAL, Sat @ UTA, Sun @ VGK)

Tampa Bay enjoyed a run of 10 wins in 11 games from Feb. 4-March 6, but the Lightning have stumbled recently, dropping their last three (0-2-1). The Lightning will try to shake that off next week, starting with a home game against Philadelphia. The Lightning will then play in Dallas on Thursday, in Utah on Saturday and in Vegas on Sunday.

Tampa Bay has a 37-23-5 record, which puts the squad two points behind Toronto and six away from the division-leading Panthers. Reaching Florida is unlikely at this point, but the Lightning could still earn home-ice advantage in a probable first-round matchup against Toronto if Tampa Bay finishes the season strong.

A lot of the Lightning’s potential success will be contingent on their main three forwards of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. That’s typically a good trio to bet on, but Guentzel and Point have each been held off the scoresheet for all of Tampa Bay’s last three games. Kucherov was scoreless in two of those contests and missed the third due to illness. Kucherov did rejoin the Lightning for Friday’s practice, but rather than skate alongside Guentzel and Point, he shared the ice with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, while Yanni Gourde skated on the top unit.

That’s nothing earthshattering. Kucherov has spent 18.5 percent of his even-strength minutes alongside Cirelli and Hagel this season, so while that combination isn’t common, it’s not unheard of. Besides, Cirelli (20 goals, 45 points) and Hagel (30 goals, 72 points) are great forwards in their own right, so they’re good players for the star to work with and might help spark Kucherov.

This is also a good opportunity for Gourde, who has six goals and 19 points between St. Louis and Tampa Bay this season. He has two assists since being acquired by Tampa Bay, but if he shows some chemistry with Guentzel and Point, perhaps Tampa Bay will consider using this combination more regularly, which would likely boost Gourde’s offensive production.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Mon vs CGY, Wed vs COL, Thu @ NYR, Sat @ NAS)

Toronto’s been struggling recently, dropping four of its last five (1-3-1) and failing to win any of those games in regulation or overtime. That’s dropped the Leafs’ record to 39-23-3, which presents them with an uphill battle if they want to overtake the 41-22-3 Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Toronto will look for better results next week, starting with home games against Calgary and Colorado on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Leafs will then hit the road, playing against the Rangers on Thursday and Nashville on Saturday.

Goaltending has been part of the Leafs’ recent issues. Anthony Stolarz has a record of 0-2-1 along with a 3.18 GAA and an .876 save percentage across his past four appearances, and Joseph Woll has allowed at least three goals over each of his past three outings -- though he is 2-1-0 over that stretch. Overall, the Maple Leafs’ goaltenders have still been fine this season with Stolarz being particularly good, posting a 2.37 GAA and a .920 save percentage in 25 games, so I don’t think those issues are a source of panic right now.

On the offensive side of things, Auston Matthews is continuing his interesting season. His 11.5 shooting percentage of 2024-25 is the worst of his career, and he might finish with under 30 goals for the first time -- just one season removed from 69 markers. However, he’s managed to adjust by serving as more of a playmaker, resulting in him collecting 56 points (23 goals) in 50 appearances. He has missed time due to upper body issues this campaign, and perhaps he’s still not 100 percent, which would explain his mortal levels of goal scoring, but as long as he’s finding other ways to contribute, Toronto will be fine.

Meanwhile, the Leafs’ pending UFAs, John Tavares and Mitch Marner, continue to make big contributions. Tavares has seven goals and 14 points in 14 appearances this season, giving him 27 goals and 56 points in 58 outings overall, and Marner has five goals and nine points in his last eight games, bringing him up to 21 goals and 80 points in 64 appearances. It will be extremely interesting to see how Toronto navigates those contract situations over the summer. Letting them walk would be immensely painful, but the silver lining is that roughly $22 million would be coming off the books between the two of them.

Ultimately, what happens in the playoffs might be a determining factor. If the Maple Leafs have a deep run, then Toronto might want to stick with what they have, and it might also serve as extra motivation for Marner to bet on the Leafs long term. However, if Toronto ends up with another first-round exit, then the front office might decide its finally time to close the books on the Marner/Matthews/Tavares/William Nylander experiment that, to this point, has resulted in just one playoff series win.

NHL: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – 4 Nations Wrap – Trade Deadline speculation edition – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 17:20:17 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 20: Team Canada forward Connor McDavid (97) drills a shot during the Championship game of the 4 Nations Face-Off between Team United States and Team Canada on February 20, 2025, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

I have to give the league credit. I did not go into this season with a lot of confidence or excitement about the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sure, it’s always fun to see best-on-best play, but with the tournament being limited to just four countries and without any pre-existing prestige/history behind the tournament name, I was among those worried that it might end up looking like a series of glorified All-Star games and not attract any non-hockey fans. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

ESPN saw an average viewership of 9.252 million for the Final between Canada and the United States, making it the most-watched non-Olympic hockey game on record in US viewership history. Including Canadians, that rating increased to 16.1 million viewers (6.9 million between Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ and TVA Sports), which was on par for a Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final (16.3 million), per Braylon Breeze of Sports Media Watch.

The Final even took a political angle. I won’t stress people looking for an escape with the details, but the current climate between the United States and Canada was an undercurrent throughout this tournament and in the Final especially, only adding to the enthusiasm for this match.

When all that noise ended, and the puck dropped, the players didn’t disappoint. This was not a glorified All-Star Game. The players took the opportunity to represent their country seriously, and after the United States earned a 3-1 victory over Canada during the round robin, the Canadians got their revenge Thursday in a 3-2 overtime win over the States.

The winning goal was appropriately scored by Connor McDavid, who was left wide open due to a defensive breakdown by the Americans, took advantage of a nice pass from Mitch Marner to fire a wrist shot past Connor Hellebuyck.

Marner getting the primary assist on that marker and Sam Bennett’s game-tying goal at 14:00 of the second period -- the last goal before McDavid found the back of the net -- was a bit of a redemption story for the 27-year-old winger. Marner and McDavid didn’t seem to gel earlier in the tournament, resulting in the duo being separated for Canada’s 5-3 win over Finland on Monday and Marner logging just 12:46 of ice time. Had that been the end of the story, it would have been about Marner vanishing when things got tough, a story that would have added to the frustrations of Maple Leafs fans, who have seen Toronto flounder in the playoffs throughout Marner’s tenure. Instead, he added another chapter to the tale.

It was also a great showing for Jordan Binnington. Goaltending was the main question mark for Canada going into this tournament, and while Binnington certainly had some bad moments, in the end, he did step up for Canada, turning side 31 of 33 shots in the Final.

Of course, Nathan MacKinnon was also deserving of his MVP title. He scored a tournament-best four goals, including the overtime winner against Team Sweden and two markers versus Finland. Without MacKinnon’s efforts, Canada might not have made it to the final match. He also got Canada on the board first against Team USA on Thursday with his marker at 4:48 of the first period.

It needs to be acknowledged how well America played in this tournament. Both games between these two countries were intense, and not much would have had to change for Team USA to have emerged as the winner. In particular, Zach Werenski (six assists), Jake Guentzel (three goals, four points) and the Tkachuk brothers were fantastic in this tournament. Connor Hellebuyck also did his part in the 4 Nations Face-Off, largely proving his status as the league’s best goaltender, even if his team finished just shy of the title.

Canada can celebrate today, but they have every reason to be concerned about Team USA going into the Olympics. What a fun tournament that should be.

Boston Bruins

Boston will start next week at home, hosting the Maple Leafs on Tuesday and the Islanders on Thursday. The Bruins will then travel to Pittsburgh on Saturday and Minnesota on Sunday.

It seems unbelievable to even suggest it, but those games might be among Brad Marchand’s last in a Bruins jersey. Boston is 27-24-7, which puts the Bruins a point behind the Senators for the final wild-card spot despite having played in one extra game. To be clear, Boston still very much has a chance of making the playoffs, but the fact that it's now a borderline team is cause for retrospection.

There were tempered expectations for the Bruins going into 2023-24 after losing David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron. The squad managed to prove the rumors of their death were exaggerated with a 47-20-15 showing, but that success was led by elite goaltending, something the Bruins haven’t enjoyed this season. Linus Ullmark is gone and -- perhaps due to the pressures of his new contract, missing training camp or some combination of the two -- has underwhelmed with an 18-18-4 record, 2.98 GAA and .898 save percentage. Couple that with free-agent signing Elias Lindholm putting up mild numbers (11 goals, 30 points) as well as Charlie McAvoy (shoulder) getting hurt in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and it’s looking more and more like this isn’t a squad setup for a playoff run even if it does squeak in.

With all that considered, maybe it really is time to move on from Marchand. He’s 36 and in the final campaign of what’s proven to be an extremely team-friendly eight-year, $49 million deal. He is allowed to submit a list of up to eight teams he’d veto a trade from, so he does have some influence over his situation, but the return the Bruins could potentially get from him would still be significant. There are a lot of teams out there who would be happy to take a former Stanley Cup winner with a reputation for getting under opponents' skin. Especially given that Marchand is still performing at a high level offensively with 20 goals and 45 points through 58 appearances in 2024-25. His cap hit ($6.125 million) is also reasonable enough to make it feasible for most contenders to maneuver him below the ceiling, especially if Boston retains part of what’s left of his salary.

There’s a certain logic to trading Marchand while his value is still high and at the end of that contract, but there’s also a strong argument against it. He’s the Bruins captain and a fan favorite. Trading him away, especially after a summer that didn’t go Boston’s way, would likely result in strong pushback against GM Don Sweeney and president Cam Neely, even if the return is significant. It’d be one thing if Marchand wanted to go for the sake of chasing the Cup, but in his own words, his “goal is to play here forever,” per NBC Sports Boston. True, players will usually speak highly of whoever their current employer is, but in the case of Marchand, who has dedicated his entire NHL career to Boston, it seems reasonable to believe him and assume he wants to re-sign with the team.

Plus, even if he is getting up there in age, Boston might still enjoy another serious run with him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jeremy Swayman rebound next season. Hampus Lindholm (lower body) might have better luck on the injury front in 2025-26, which would go a long way towards stabilizing the blue line. The team would still have secondary scoring concerns that would need to be addressed over the summer, but this is far from a franchise that’s without hope in the mid-term.

In the end, I expect Marchand rumors to persist up until the trade deadline but for him to ultimately remain with Boston.

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles will open the week by hosting Vegas on Monday followed by Vancouver on Wednesday. The Kings will then hit the road with games in Dallas and St. Louis on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

The Kings hold a 30-17-7 record going, which gives them a decent cushion in the battle for a playoff spot, though they’ll have a difficult time catching up to Edmonton (34-19-4) or Vegas (34-17-6), which would be necessary in order to secure home-ice advantage in the first round.

Still, with the trade deadline approaching, the Kings are likely to be buyers if they do anything. They have all their draft picks over the next three years with the exception of their 2025 second-round selection (surrendered in the Tanner Jeannot trade) and a decent amount of cap flexibility (PuckPedia puts the squad’s deadline space at just under $4.5 million), so there is room here to get something done.

Los Angeles is rumored to be targeting Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, according to Russell Morgan of Hockey Royalty. Even if that doesn’t specifically happen, it does suggest that LA is in the market for a top six winger, which would make some sense.

Los Angeles is fine up the middle. Anze Kopitar is still performing well at 37 (13 goals, 46 points). Neither Phillip Danault (five goals, 230 points) and Quinton Byfield (11 goals, 29 points) has done enough offensively to be an ideal second-line center, but either one is serviceable in the middle six. Besides, with the Pierre-Luc Dubois experiment still fresh in the Kings’ mind, Los Angeles might be reluctant to take another swing at filling that role. Instead, the hope is probably for Byfield to grow into that job and push Danault to the third unit.

The defense looks solid now that Drew Doughty is back from his ankle injury. We haven’t seen much from him offensively yet -- just one assist in six appearances with the Kings and one helper in four outings with Canada -- but he’s averaged 26:57 of ice time with Los Angeles since returning, so he’s helped stabilize the blue line.

In goal, Darcy Kuemper has been a pleasant surprise, providing a 17-6-6 record, 2.22 GAA and .918 save percentage in 30 appearances, firmly putting his 2023-24 showing with Washington -- a 13-14-3 record with a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 outings -- behind him. Maybe the Kings will seek an alternate to David Rittich, who has a 12-11-1 record, 2.59 GAA and .890 save percentage in 25 appearances, but that seems unlikely.

That mostly just leaves help on the wings, especially from someone who can find the back of the net. Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are the only Kings players with at least 15 markers -- 25 and 21, respectively -- while 3.7 players per team have hit the 15-goal milestone, so it’s fair to say that’s an area of need for the Kings.

Los Angeles is also an underwhelming 20th in goals per game with 2.83 and has instead relied on its fifth-ranked 2.53 goals allowed per game for its success.

If the Kings do add a top six forward, then Trevor Moore could see his playing time meaningfully diminish. Moore was great in 2023-24 with 31 goals and 57 points in 82 regular-season games, but he’s dropped to eight goals and 23 points in 45 appearances this season, making his average ice time of 17:05 less than ideal. Any addition up front might also push Moore off the power play entirely. As it is, he’s averaging just 1:11 with the man advantage, which has resulted in only one assist for the 29-year-old this season.

Minnesota Wild

The Wild have a full week, starting at home against Detroit on Tuesday before a back-to-back in Utah and Colorado on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The squad will then return to Minnesota to host the Bruins on Sunday.

Minnesota has a strong 34-19-4 record (72 points), but with the Jets’ dominance (39-14-3), finishing first in the Central Division still looks like a longshot. Instead, the Wild are battling with Dallas (37-18-2) and Colorado (33-24-2) for the second and third seeds in the division with the bottom of the three likely entering the playoffs as a wild-card club.

The big question for the Wild is when Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) will be back. When he underwent surgery in late January, we were told that he’d miss a minimum of four weeks, so while a return this week seems unlikely, seeing Kaprizov by mid-March isn’t out of the question. Minnesota deserves credit for managing a 4-2-0 record since Kaprizov was put on the shelf, but that stretch also included back-to-back shutout losses and an underwhelming 2.50 goals per game, so the Wild have shown some vulnerability.

Getting strong performances out of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello during Kaprizov’s absence will be critical. Boldy had a poorly timed five-game scoring drought from Jan. 29-Feb. 6, but he bounced back with two goals and three points in the Wild’s final game before the break and held his own during the 4 Nations Face-Off, supplying a goal and three points in four outings with Team USA, so he might hit the ground running for Minnesota when play resumes.

Rossi has two goals and seven points across his past 10 appearances with the Wild, but he’s also been inconsistent during that stretch, going without a point in five of those outings. Meanwhile, Zuccarello hadn’t scored a point in five straight games before the break. Maybe the break -- Zuccarello wasn’t involved in the tournament -- has allowed him to reset and put that slump behind him.

That trio is likely to play together while Kaprizov remains out, though once Kaprizov returns, Boldy might shift off that unit to make room for the Wild’s star forward.

Nashville Predators

Nashville will open the week with a pair of difficult opponents at home, hosting Florida and Winnipeg on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Predators will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

Nashville showed some hope from Jan. 3-23, winning seven of nine games, but the Predators followed that with a six-game losing streak they couldn’t afford. Nashville now has a 20-29-7 record, putting the team 15 points out of a playoff spot. The team isn’t mathematically eliminated, but there is no longer a realistic path to the postseason for Nashville. To hit 94 points, Nashville would need to go 23-4-1 the rest of the way. That’s simply not happening.

That makes the Predators obvious sellers going into the deadline. Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi and Brady Skjei all have no-movement clauses and significant term left on their contracts, so I wouldn’t expect any kind of blockbuster involving any of them.

Interestingly, Juuse Saros’ new contract, and thus his no-movement clause, doesn’t begin until the 2025-26 campaign, so technically the Predators could trade the goaltender, but I doubt they will. Saros’ eight-year, $61.92 million deal looked good when he inked it, but the 29-year-old has struggled this campaign with an 11-23-6 record, 2.95 GAA and .898 save percentage in 41 appearances prior to the tournament. He had a minus-3.5 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck, which suggests he’s been below average even after considering the poor play in front of him. Teams might be hesitant to take on that big contract given his recent performance, and Nashville might be equally reluctant to trade him at a time when his value is down.

Still, Nashville should be active at the deadline. Gustav Nyquist, who is playing the final season of his two-year, $6.37 million contract, is likely gone. His 20 points in 55 appearances this campaign is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24, but the 35-year-old should still be a capable middle-six forward for a contender and, frankly, a move away from the Predators’ struggles should do him some good.

Perhaps Ryan O'Reilly will be moved as well. He’s signed through 2026-27, but his $4.5 million cap hit is fair for the two-way center who has 14 goals, 34 points and a 56.6 faceoff percentage in 53 outings this season. The 34-year-old is a former Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winner, which is sure to appeal to contenders, and the fact that he’s got term left on his deal means that he would command more than a rental price. He also lacks a no-trade clause, making a potential move that much easier. That said, it really depends on how bad the Predators see their situation. Nashville still has a veteran core, and with so many players locked to NMCs, the franchise is unlikely to embrace a rebuild at this time. If that’s the case, then Nashville might prefer to keep O’Reilly under the belief that the team will bounce back over the next two years. At the least, the Predators likely aren’t motivated sellers when it comes to him, so they would need to be offered a very appealing return.

It'd be much cheaper for teams to pry Luke Schenn from the Predators. He’s in the middle season of a three-year, $8.25 million contract, so he’s not a rental either, but the 35-year-old defenseman is presumably not as big of a part of Nashville’s plans. For a team looking to win now, though, Schenn provides some value. He is a physical force with 41 PIM and 207 hits through 56 outings and would be a solid third-pairing option on a playoff squad. His cap hit might be a touch high for what he brings to the table, but at $2.75 million, it’s workable.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Moving from one seller to another, the Penguins aren’t quite out of the playoff race, but they probably won’t make it. At the least, Pittsburgh needs to be great down the stretch to close the gap, which means the Penguins need a big week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday before returning home to host the Flyers, the Bruins and the Maple Leafs on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Sidney Crosby looked great in the 4 Nations Face-Off, contributing a goal and five points across four games for Team Canada. The 37-year-old should be expected to continue to perform for the Penguins down the stretch after supplying 17 goals and 58 points across 55 appearances with Pittsburgh leading up to the tournament. Unfortunately, it’s already well established that the current Penguins can lose even with Crosby keeping up his end of the bargain.

Even if the Penguins are sellers, Crosby is unsurprisingly going nowhere. He has a no-movement clause, and it’s doubtful that either Pittsburgh or Crosby have interest in parting ways. He is the face of the franchise and will likely remain in that position until he hangs up his skates.

The same goes for Evgeni Malkin. The Russian star made his intentions clear in an interview with The Athletic’s Rob Rossi: “I not retire. I know what some people say -- like, I go back to Russia and play for my home team. But I never say it, you know? I retire with Pittsburgh. The Penguins are my team. I love this team. When I retire it’s here.”

So yeah, take him off the list, especially because his no-movement clause gives him final say over his status.

Still, the Penguins are likely to make some moves. Perhaps Matt Grzelcyk, who is playing on a one-year, $2.75 million contract, will be traded. He has a goal and 28 points in 59 appearances while averaging 20:18 of ice time, though he might see his power-play role decline with a new team, which would hurt his fantasy value. He has 10 power-play assists and has logged 2:11 per game with the man advantage this season.

Cody Glass might also be shipped to a team looking for forward depth, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same happen to Anthony Beauvillier. Neither has term left on his contract, though Glass has one season remaining of RFA eligibility.

If Pittsburgh is in the mood for something bigger, the team could take a hard look at moving Rickard Rakell. He’s having a strong campaign with 25 goals and 49 points in 58 appearances. He’s signed through 2027-28 with a $5 million cap hit, so I don’t think the Penguins will move him, but his trade value is good, so it would be a way to shake things up without touching the core. However, the Penguins aren’t expected to enter a full rebuild until after Crosby retires, so rather than move Rakell for picks or long-term prospects, Pittsburgh would presumably want at least one player who is NHL-ready in any Rakell trade.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will alternate between home and away games next week. They’ll start by hosting Seattle on Tuesday before playing in Washington on Thursday, returning home to face the Kings on Saturday and finally traveling to Dallas for a clash Sunday.

St. Louis is in a similar position to Pittsburgh. It’d be wrong to say all hope for a playoff berth is lost, but with a 26-26-6 (58 points) record, squeaking into the playoffs seems improbable. Perhaps Jordan Binnington can ride the high of backstopping Team Canada to victory in the 4 Nations Face-Off to lead the Blues on a run after the break. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on because he’s a great netminder when he’s at his best, but the problem is that the 31-year-old can end up all over the place. Not to take away from what he just accomplished, but that inconsistency makes it hard for me to count on him to continue at that high level of performance for a sustained period of time.

If he can’t lead St. Louis on a run in the near term, then the Blues are likely to be another seller at the trade deadline. Radek Faksa, who is in the final season of his five-year, $16.25 million contract, would be the most likely player to be dealt under those circumstances. He has three goals, 10 points, 83 hits and 31 blocks in 46 appearances in 2024-25. Those aren’t standout numbers, but Faksa would likely have a market among contenders looking to add to their bottom six.

Maybe trade offers involving Cam Fowler or Nick Leddy will be entertained too. Leddy has a full no-trade clause, while Fowler can limit his options to a four-team trade list, so the two blueliners have considerable control over their respective situations, but they’re also 33 years old and might be interested in the opportunity to play for a contender. Fowler and Leddy are signed through 2025-26, so each of them would come with a bit of term, which adds to their value, especially given that they also come with a reasonable cap hit of roughly $4 million (in Fowler’s case, that’s excluding the $2.5 million Anaheim has retained).

Fowler and Leddy are each capable of serving in a top four capacity. Fowler was already involved in a trade from Anaheim to St. Louis in December, so moving him again is a bit awkward, but given the Blues’ situation, it would make some sense to flip him to a team doing better. As for Leddy, he’s healthy after missing most of the campaign due to a lower-body injury. There seems to be a bit of load management going on given that he averaged just 17:21 of ice time over his first three games back -- his 2023-24 average was 22:22 -- but as he puts some distance between him and his time on the shelf, his workload should increase.

Ryan Suter will also probably get traded if there is interest in him. The 40-year-old isn’t the defenseman he once was, but he would be a nice veteran presence for a contender. Just don’t expect him to average anywhere close to his 20:29 in 2024-25 if he moves away from St. Louis.

If one or more of those blueliners do get traded, then Tyler Tucker will likely see an increase in playing time. We might also see Samuel Johannesson get called up from AHL Springfield to make his NHL debut. The 24-year-old has shown some offensive potential in the minors, providing three goals and 23 points in 46 appearances, so maybe he’d get a trial on the second power-play unit depending on who St. Louis parts with.

If the Blues make some moves up front, then Dalibor Dvorsky would likely get summoned from Springfield. The 19-year-old has looked good with 15 goals and 35 points in 44 AHL outings. It’s also worth keeping Jimmy Snuggerud in the back of your mind. He has 20 goals and 42 points in 32 games with the University of Minnesota as a junior. If he opts to go pro after the NCAA season, it’s feasible that he’ll immediately jump into a middle-six spot with the Blues.

So even if St. Louis misses the playoffs, there are some young players who might make those final weeks worth watching.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals will be at home next week and won’t have to deal with a back-to-back set. Washington will host Calgary on Tuesday, St. Louis on Thursday and Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Washington went into the break with a dominant lead in the Eastern Conference. The Capitals had 80 points (36-11-8) through 55 appearances, putting them nine points ahead of the second-rank Panthers despite Florida having played in two extra games. Although it’s too early for Washington’s spot atop the conference standings to be assured, we’re quickly approaching a point where the Capitals will have to resist the temptation to go onto cruise control until the playoffs.

While there are obvious benefits to the Capitals’ position, resting on your laurels down the stretch can make it hard to get serious again once the playoffs start. Fortunately, even if Washington soon finds itself in a position where wins feel optional, there will still be something to play for: Alex Ovechkin. The 39-year-old entered the 4 Nations break just 15 goals behind Wayne Gretzky and delivered a hat trick in his second game upon return to close the gap to 12 goals in the remaining 25 games. He’s scored at a pace of 0.67 goals per game this campaign, so becoming the all-time goal scorer by the end of the campaign looks attainable, should he stay healthy.

However, it has to be said that using that as the team’s motivation might be a double-edged sword. Getting the puck to Ovechkin is usually the right call -- he's converting on 18.4 percent of his shots after all -- but if the team puts all its focus into securing the record for Ovechkin, even at the cost of the fundamentals, then it might create bad habits. That’s potentially especially dangerous should the act of winning or losing become secondary.

Either way, he’s the best offensive weapon the Capitals have and should be well-rested after the break. He’s not the only one either -- no Washington player was included in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Although Jordan Binnington got the job done, Logan Thompson would have also been a fantastic option for Team Canada after posting a 24-2-5 record, 2.23 GAA and .921 save percentage through 31 appearances with Washington this season, but he wasn’t included on the roster. The silver lining is that the time off should have given him a chance to reset -- he was working through a slump right before the break, posting a 1-0-2 record, 3.88 GAA and .867 save percentage across three outings.

That’s in contrast to Tom Wilson, who had four goals and six points across his final four outings before the break and has added three points in two games since returning. The 30-year-old has already suprassed his career high in goals with 26 and is on course to surpass his personal best of 52 points -- he has 45 through 57 contests this campaign.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets will open the week by hosting the Sharks, and they’ll follow that up with a two-game road trip to Ottawa and Nashville on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The Jets will conclude the week back home with a clash against the Flyers on Saturday.

Like the Capitals, Winnipeg’s biggest challenge going forward might be finding ways to stay motivated down the stretch as games potentially mean progressively less. The Jets already have 81 points (39-14-3) after just 56 appearances, so their playoff position is fairly secure. They’ve even opened up a nine-point lead in the battle for the Western Conference’s top seed thanks to their active eight-game winning streak.

One benefit of that time off will be the ability to manage Connor Hellebuyck’s workload down the stretch. The 31-year-old netminder should still be counted on to play regularly, but we might see Eric Comrie move up to playing once every third game to make sure Hellebuyck isn’t burnt out by the time the playoffs start. It’s a situation worth monitoring closely if you have Hellebuyck on your fantasy team. Adding Comrie would be a good hedge, especially given that he’s been a fine backup with a 2.57 GAA and a .912 save percentage in 13 appearances.

On the trade front, Winnipeg is projected to have $11.2 million worth of deadline cap space, per Puckpedia, but the Jets are missing their 2025 second and fourth-round selections due to trades before this season, so Winnipeg has a little less to work with when it comes to acquiring players.

Another tricky thing is that…they play in Winnipeg. That’s not me trying to throw shade at the city, that’s me acknowledging a genuine challenge that the franchise has to constantly overcome because of player perceptions. The Athletic recently polled 111 players and granted them anonymity so that they could speak freely. When asked what the first team on their hypothetical no-trade list would be, 48.78 percent picked Winnipeg.

As one player put it: “There’s not much to do out there. It’s (censored) cold. I haven’t heard a guy go to Winnipeg and be like, 'This is going to be my forever home.’”

The second-place Sabres weren’t even close at 19.51 percent despite the Jets being a dominant club while Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs since 2011. It’s not fair, but if a player has a partial no-trade list, then you have to consider the probability that Winnipeg is on it. Even still, Winnipeg might be able to bolster its blue line or add a middle-six forward before the deadline.

Seth Jones has interest in leaving Chicago, and Winnipeg was mentioned as a potential destination by The Athletic. He’d help solidify the Jets’ top four and maybe serve on the second power-play unit. His $9.5 million cap hit is a bit rich, but the cap is going up, and the Blackhawks might be willing to retain part of that salary. However, Jones has a no-movement clause, and given what we’ve already discussed when it comes to players' feelings for Winnipeg, he might not be willing to waive it for the Jets.

Getting Ryan Donato from Chicago might be more viable. It’s a far less splashy move, but Donato would be a nice third-line option. He has 19 goals and 38 points in 55 appearances this season. Connor Murphy would also be a solid add for Winnipeg in a trade with the Blackhawks. After supplying a goal, 13 points, 38 PIM, 72 hits and 100 blocks in 44 appearances with Chicago this campaign, he’d look nice on Winnipeg’s third pairing. Like Jones, though, Winnipeg would have to overcome the NTC problem -- Murphy has a 10-team no-trade list.

NHL: CULLEN – Laine making the most of his power play time, Schmaltz, Hertl and Nelson are hot, Jones thriving since returning to lineup, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 23:24:57 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 07: Patrik Laine (92) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens on Dec 07 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Patrik Laine has made the most of his power play time in Montreal, Nick Schmaltz, Tomas Hertl and Brock Nelson are hot, Seth Jones is thriving since returning to the Chicago lineup, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It is not like the hockey world forgot what Patrik Laine could do when the puck hit his stick, but he has been playing sporadically in recent seasons, so the evidence wasn’t quite so evident. After joining the Montreal Canadiens, however, Laine has shown that he is still a lethal shooter. In 20 games with the Habs, Laine has 18 points (12 G, 6 A) with 54 shots on goal. He is scoring on 22.2 percent of his shots, which is a higher rate than he has finished in any previous season, but he is also quite specifically a power play threat, with 10 of his 12 goals coming with the man advantage. Laine has 10.35 goals per 60 minutes of power play time, which ranks first among players that have played at least 30 minutes on the power play this season. Victor Olofsson (6.48), Pavel Dorofeyev (5.76), Michael Bunting (5.22), and Brayden Point (4.82) round out the top five in power play goal-scoring efficiency.

#2 Veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has established his credentials as a quality point producing forward but had been off to a relatively slow start prior to embarking on what is now a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (3 G, 6 A). Schmaltz has consistently played alongside Clayton Keller, but the duo has recently added second-year centre Logan Cooley to the top line and Cooley has been cooking, putting up 30 points (12 G. 18 A) in his past 28 games.

#3 Barrett Hayton, who has played quite a bit with Schmaltz and Keller in recent seasons, has moved to a line with Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan and continues to have success, tallying seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past four games. Hayton’s ice time is down this season to 15:24 per game after playing more than 17 minutes per game in the previous two seasons, but he has also improved his work in the face-off circle, winning 54.2 percent of his draws. Given Cooley’s offensive upside, it probably makes more sense for Hayton to slot in as the No. 2 centre in Utah.

#4 Vegas Golden Knights centre Tomas Hertl had been relatively inconsistent early in the season, but he might be turning the corner. He is riding a seven-game point streak, putting up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in those seven games. That elevated shot rate is an important factor because Hertl was averaging 2.24 shots per game through the first 41 games of the season. Taking that up to 3.57 shots per game is a strong indicator for a player sustaining is production.

#5 New York Islanders centre Brock Nelson is finding his name in trade rumours as the Isles are sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division. He is helping to keep his value high, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his past six games. A 6-foot-4 centre who has scored more than 30 goals in three straight seasons, Nelson is obviously appealing for a team looking to boost its offense.

#6 Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Seth Jones is starting to heat up. He had missed five weeks with a foot injury, but has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 14 games since getting back into the lineup. Jones has recorded 10 of his 20 points on the power play, and with 7.87 points per 60 minutes on the power play, he ranks third among defencemen, behind only Zach Werenski (8.11) and Neal Pionk (7.91).

#7 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson had been on a good run before getting injured Thursday night. In his past 11 games, including Thursday, Stephenson has contributed 10 points (5 G, 5 A) but there is a bona fide concern with his low shot rate. He has 46 shots on goal in 48 games, which is a shockingly low amount for a player who logs more than 19 minutes of ice time per game. With Yanni Gourde also injured, Stephenson’s absence could create more playing time for Shane Wright, who is making progress. In his first 23 games of the season, Wright had seven points (4 G, 11 A), but in the next 23 games, he has contributed 15 points (4 G, 11 A).

#8 Looking for a buy-low winger? Consider Kevin Fiala of the Los Angeles Kings. In 11 games since the holiday break, Fiala has a modest five points (2 G, 3 A) but he also has 40 shots on goal. That shot rate is encouraging, but there is also the matter of Fiala’s low on-ice shooting percentage this season. During five-on-five play, the Kings are scoring on just 5.8 percent of their shots when Fiala is on the ice, which is his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017.

#9 Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman can fly under the radar a bit but when he is contributing offensively, that makes his fantasy contribution quite strong. In his past 17 games, Coleman has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) but he also has 36 hits and that combination makes him quite appealing for fantasy managers. Coleman is unlikely to match last season’s career highs of 30 goals and 54 points, but already has 92 hits in 46 games, so if the point production continues, Coleman’s all-around contribution is solid.

#10 On a similar level, Boston Bruins forward Morgan Geekie has picked up his production a bit, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his past 10 games, but he also has 25 hits in those 10 games. Be a little wary, though, since Geekie only has 16 shots on goal in those 10 games, his goal-scoring has been dependent on a high shooting percentage (31.3 percent in the past 10 games).

#11 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake has found his way to the top line, skating with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Blake has played 15:27 per game over the past four, chipping in three points (1 G, 2 A) with nine shots on goal. It is probably too soon to jump on Blake in most fantasy leagues, but if he remains on that top line there is obvious scoring upside for a player who ranks third among rookies with 11 goals despite very limited ice time (12:02 ATOI). (Editors note – The Rantanen trade followed the publication of this article – the coach may want to spread the scoring around, but it is more likely Rantanen takes that spot on the top line)

#12 Toronto Maple Leafs centre John Tavares is out of the lineup due to a lower-body injury and for all of the criticism that Tavares takes, he remains a high-end point producer, with 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 44 games before getting hurt. The challenge for the Maple Leafs is to get contributions down the middle of the ice behind Auston Matthews because, with Tavares out, the second line centre is Pontus Holmberg and the third line centre is rookie Fraser Minten. Holmberg has zero goals and one assist in his past 11 games while Minten has zero points in his past eight NHL games after starting with four points in his first five games.

#13 With the New York Islanders’ season teetering on the brink, they got bad news that standout defenceman Noah Dobson is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Dobson’s production has fallen off the pace he set last season, when he had a career-high 70 points (10 G, 60 A) in 79 games, as he has 24 points (6 G, 18 A) in 46 games this season, but the Islanders don’t have great options to replace him on the power play. Ryan Pulock has handled the role before and is noted for his heavy shot from the point, but has one power play point this season.

#14 New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has suffered a sprained MCL, which will keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks. Markstrom has been exactly what the Devils needed between the pipes, with a .912 save percentage and 10.0 goals saved above expectations in 36 games. With Markstrom out, Jake Allen will need to handle the starter’s role. Allen has a .901 save percentage and 4.04 goals saved above expected in 15 games this season, so he is a capable starting goaltender for the next month plus.

#15 The Boston Bruins are in a tough battle for a playoff spot, for the first time in a while, but that is made even more challenging when goaltender Jeremy Swayman and No. 1 defenceman Charlie McAvoy are sidelined with injuries. Defenceman Hampus Lindholm was already injured, so the current version of the Bruins is without its top two defencemen and top goaltender, and that is going to make it even more difficult. Swayman’s injury does not seem serious, so Joonas Korpisalo may only have short term value, but McAvoy has landed on injured reserve, which will keep him out for at least a week. This defensive weakening does make the Bruins more vulnerable, potentially worth targeting as opposition while the Bruins are missing Lindholm and McAvoy.

#16 Bruins defenceman Mason Lohrei has been making the most of his opportunity to quarterback the power play. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and is up to 10 power play points. With 6.85 points per 60 minutes on the power play, Lohrei is tied for 15th (with Chicago’s Alex Vlasic) among NHL defencemen.

#17 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is considered week to week with a lower-body injury, and that leaves a large hole for the Avalanche. In 21 games, Nichushkin has 17 points (11 G, 6 A). His absence keeps Ross Colton in Colorado’s top six and while Colton has been held scoreless in his past four games, he is worth keeping tabs on as a player with potential upside because he thrived earlier in the season when given a big opportunity due to injuries.

#18 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is out with an upper-body injury. Given his history with shoulder woes, Norris’ health is an area of concern, yet the thing is that he can still produce when healthy. In 47 games this season, Norris has produced 17 goals and 27 points. The Sens do get David Perron back in the lineup, so that should theoretically help alleviate Norris’ absence, but Perron has failed to record a point in 10 games this season, so expectations should be kept in check. Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson is out of the lineup with a lower-body injury, which elevates Thomas Chabot to the first power play unit.

#19 Norris’ absence from the Senators’ lineup should also open the door for Shane Pinto to step up. While Pinto has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past eight games, he is also averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that time, so it would be a prime opportunity for Pinto to lift his offensive production because with 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 40 games, he has underachieved offensively.

#20 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has elevated his game recently, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past five games, averaging 21:50 time on ice per game. With J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak injured, the Lightning certainly need Raddysh to take on more responsibility. In his first 18 games this season, Raddysh averaged 15:30 time on ice per game and in 20 games since then, has averaged 20:04 per game.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Are the New York Rangers really this bad? – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 13:30:15 +0000

_{NEW YORK, NY - MAY 30: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers prior to the National Hockey League Eastern Conference Final game 5 against the Florida Panthers on May 30, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)}

Are the New York Rangers really this bad or just stuck in an absurdly long slump? Or is there a third possibility?

The common narrative seems to put the blame on Rangers president and GM Chris Drury, who some speculate has created a rift between management and the players that's having a significant impact on the ice. Vincent Z. Mercogliano of Lohud reported that some on the team have taken issue with Drury's methods, from waiving Barclay Goodrow to get around his no-trade clause to threatening to do the same to captain Jacob Trouba if he didn't sign off on a trade to Anaheim, to Drury reportedly issuing a memo that the Rangers were open for business on the trade front following a loss to Edmonton, despite team still being a strong 12-6-1 at that time.

Then there was the incident with Kaapo Kakko. Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to scratch him for Tuesday's tilt against Nashville after New York lost 10 of 13, dropping to 15-14-1. However, Kakko took exception to that, feeling he was getting unfairly singled out.

"I know you've got to do something as a coach when you're losing games, but I think it's just easy to pick a young guy and boot him out. That's how I feel, to be honest," Kakko said, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post. He added, "I have not been the worst guy. But that was me out of the lineup."

The Rangers ended up losing 2-0 to Nashville. The next day, Kakko was dealt to Seattle. Even if Kakko never really developed as the Rangers hoped when they selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, that whole saga this week was another distraction that the team could ill afford.

But is this really as simple as mismanagement leading to the group failing to play up to its potential or is there a deeper problem? On the surface, the answer seems obvious. The Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024 and started the campaign 12-4-1. How could this not be a team capable of contending?

There are some areas of concern, though. Chris Kreider's success has been driven by his ability to score goals, but he might be slowing in that regard at the age of 33. He has 10 markers in 28 appearances in 2024-25, which would be considered good for other players, but he doesn't bring a lot else to the table -- he has just one assist -- so that's worrying.

Mika Zibanejad has seen his production dip too. He has six goals and 21 points through 31 outings and is in a four-way tie for the fourth-worst plus/minus at minus-17. Plus/minus isn't the best metric, but he also has a relative 5v5 CF% and 5v5 FF% of minus-6.7 and minus-5.8, respectively, which suggests that his team is doing better in terms of puck possession when he's off the ice compared to when he's on it. He also has a 5v5 CF%/FF% of 44.0/44.2, which would represent career lows for him.

To some extent, this reminds me a little of what happened to the San Jose Sharks. They were a perennial contender through the 2018-19 campaign. They reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and the Western Conference Final in 2019. San Jose was far from resting on its laurels either. Still searching for that elusive championship, San Jose acquired elite defenseman Erik Karlsson in September 2018 and locked him up to an eight-year, $92 million contract in the summer of 2019.

The stage seemed to be set for the Sharks to be Cup contenders in 2019-20. Sure, Joe Pavelski was gone, but the forward group of Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl was still fairly young. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau were there as the veteran presences, and the duo of Karlsson and Brent Burns was one of the best on paper. Not only did San Jose fail to make the playoffs that year, but the Sharks haven't made it since. In retrospect, they misjudged their core and got caught in an awkward position of needing to rebuild but being slow to do so due to their already established long-term contracts.

It might be overly dramatic to suggest that the Rangers are a repeat of that, but a slump this long and dramatic is unusual and hard to dismiss.

Igor Shesterkin just has to hope that the Sharks comparison proves to be invalid. In that scenario, he'd be the Karlsson: A player who made a major commitment to a team he thought was going to be a contender, only to see some of his prime years squandered. Shesterkin recently agreed to his own eight-year, $92 million contract that doesn't even begin until next year. Maybe he'll end up having better luck with the team around him than Karlsson…

Boston Bruins (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The upcoming week will be relatively light because the NHL will not play Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday due to its Christmas break. That said, there are still teams worth highlighting, starting with the Bruins, who begin the week with a difficult home game against Washington on Monday but will then face the rebuilding Blue Jackets on the road Friday and then in Boston on Saturday.

The Bruins' rough start to the campaign is largely behind them. From Nov. 21 onward, the Bruins have a 9-4-1 record to put them at 17-13-4 overall. The single biggest difference is that Boston has given up far fewer goals, going from an average of 3.45 goals allowed over its 8-9-3 start to 2.71 across its past 15 games.

Jeremy Swayman has been a benefactor of that, posting a 2.68 GAA over that 15-game span (he's appeared in 10 of those contests) while earning a 6-3-1 record. However, Swayman's save percentage during that stretch is a less impressive .892. It's worth noting that span includes a rough 8-1 loss to Winnipeg in which Swayman was charged with every goal. If you exclude that one start, then his save percentage during that span jumps to .912.

Boston's offense has also improved over the past 15 games, though it's still not special, earning 2.86 goals per game over that stretch compared to 2.40 during the first 20 games. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie have provided some key secondary scoring recently, totaling nine and eight points, respectively, across Boston's last 15 outings. Neither one has been particularly consistent, though, and their production is only impressive when measured against their dreadful starts to the campaign.

Meanwhile, Elias Lindholm continues to underwhelm with five goals and 17 points through 34 appearances. However, he is on a three-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), so perhaps he'll be effective in the upcoming week.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs. DAL, Thu @ MIN, FRI vs. PIT, Sun vs. STL)

I started this article by highlighting the Rangers for their struggles, but Buffalo has been even worse. Going into Friday's action, the Sabres have lost 11 straight games, dropping to 11-17-4. Rather than showing signs of turning things around, they suffered a 6-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday.

The Sabres won't face particularly stiff competition next week, though, so perhaps they can stabilize. They'll play on the road against the Islanders on Monday, host Chicago on Friday and conclude the week in St. Louis on Sunday.

Finding a diamond in the rough on a team doing that poorly is difficult. Jason Zucker is about as close as you'll come. He has eight goals and 21 points through 32 appearances, making this a nice bounce-back campaign for him after he finished 2023-24 with 32 points in 69 regular-season games between Arizona and Nashville. It helps that he's averaging 2:53 with the man advantage, which would be a career-high if he maintains that. Zucker has seven power-play points (three goals), which puts him on track to easily surpass his 2023-24 total of 10 and potentially even best his personal best of 16, which was set in 2017-18.

Outside of that, though, there isn't much to like. Rasmus Dahlin (back) is set to return on Friday, which should be a significant boost for Buffalo. The Sabres' losing streak predates Dahlin's seven-game absence, but it's still reasonable to say that Dahlin plays an important role for Buffalo and that his exclusion from the lineup was felt. He has six goals and 19 points in 25 appearances in 2024-25 while averaging 24:42 of ice time, including 3:23 with the man advantage.

Owen Power has been seeing significant power-play usage recently, but with Dahlin back, Power might be absent from the power play entirely for Friday's game. For other defensemen, that would be a big blow, but Power has failed to take advantage of that role -- he hasn't recorded a single power-play point in 2024-25 -- so it shouldn't change much for those who have Power on their team.

Dallas Stars (Mon @ BUF, Thu vs. VGK, FRI vs. TBL, Sun vs. MIN)

Dallas is set to play in Utah on Monday, host the Wild on Friday and play in Chicago on Sunday. It's not a bad schedule, but under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be good enough to highlight. Still, it's nice to have an opportunity to talk about Dallas, which has done well this campaign with a 19-12-0 record heading into Friday's action.

The Stars are also in an interesting spot right now. Matt Duchene is their scoring leader with 30 points (13 goals) in 31 appearances, but his hot start has come to an end with him recording just a goal and three points across his past nine outings. Duchene's cold stretch probably isn't the new normal, but it's equally fair to suggest that he overperformed early in the campaign. His shooting percentage, which remains an uncomfortably high 26.0, suggests that there might still be more backsliding to come. He might ultimately finish the campaign with 60-70 points, which would be in line with his 2023-24 results and would represent a mild, but not dramatic, scoring decline from his overall scoring pace this campaign.

Fortunately for Dallas, Duchene's decline has corresponded with Jason Robertson showing signs of life. The 25-year-old forward's overall numbers this campaign remain well below what you'd expect from him (seven goals and 21 points in 31 games), but he has collected two goals and six points over his past five appearances.

Jamie Benn has also been solid, recording an assist in each of his past six outings and contributing two goals and nine points across his last 10 games. His 20 points through 31 appearances in 2024-25 still put him on pace to finish below his 60-point regular-season total from 2023-24, but it still wouldn't be shocking to see him end up hitting that mark by the end of the campaign.

Minnesota Wild (Mon vs. TBL, Thu vs. BUF, FRI @ VGK, Sun vs. DAL)

The Wild will begin next week by hosting the Blackhawks before playing in Dallas on Friday and finally returning home to face the Senators on Sunday. Dallas, as discussed above, is a tough opponent, but Chicago is a rebuilding squad, and the Senators are a middling 7-7-1 on the road.

The big question out of Minnesota is the health of Filip Gustavsson. At the time of writing, he's out with a lower-body injury, but his status appears to be day-to-day, so it's possible he'll be back next week. Gustavsson has been a key part of Minnesota's success with a 14-5-3 record, 2.24 GAA and .922 save percentage in 22 appearances.

Marc-Andre Fleury has been mostly okay this campaign, but the 40-year-old netminder is coming off a rough 6-1 loss to Florida on Wednesday, which dropped him to a 2.88 GAA and a .898 save percentage through 10 outings this season. The current alternative to him is Jesper Wallstedt, who stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Dec. 15. To be fair to both goaltenders, Florida and Vegas are some of the toughest competition they could have possibly faced.

Still, it seems reasonable that they'll need a meaningful amount of goal support going forward. Fortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to play like Kirill Kaprizov. The elite forward has nine goals and 14 points over his past 11 appearances, which gives him 22 goals and 48 points in 31 outings overall. Mats Zuccarello also returned Dec. 14 from a lower-body injury and has gotten back to work with three assists over three outings.

Zuccarello's return also means Matt Boldy has shifted to the second line. Boldy has an impressive 13 goals and 30 points in 32 contests in 2024-25, but Kaprizov has been involved in 18 of those points. They are still sharing the ice on the power play, but if they don't skate together regularly in 5-on-5 situations, then Boldy might see a modest decline in production.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon @ STL, Thu vs. VGK, FRI @ BUF, Sun @ TBL)

Pittsburgh seemed doomed to miss the playoffs again based on its 7-12-4 start, but the Penguins have rebounded by going 8-2-1 since. Can they keep it up next week? They'll host the Flyers on Monday before a back-to-back set against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday. Pittsburgh will be on the road for the first half of that set and then play at home.

So who is responsible for Pittsburgh's comeback? Is it Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin? Actually, it's Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.

That's not to take anything away from Crosby, who has nine goals and 35 points in 34 outings in 2024-25, or Malkin, who has seven goals and 27 points. However, Crosby has been largely productive during the good times and bad while Malkin was actually doing better early in the campaign.

Their importance is clear, but what has really changed recently is Rust and Rakell providing far more than just secondary scoring. If I told you that a Penguins forward had nine goals and 17 points across the past 11 appearances without providing any other context, your first guess would likely be Malkin or Crosby, but that's what Rust has done. He was limited early in the campaign due to injury, but he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career lately.

Rakell has been nearly as good, supplying eight goals and 14 points across the same 11-game span. That brings him up to 15 goals and 26 points through 34 outings overall. His offensive struggles in 2023-24, dropping to 37 points from 60 points in 2022-23, were part of why the Penguins fell short of playoffs last year, so it seems appropriate that his resurgence is leading Pittsburgh back into postseason contention.

Not everything is rosy with the Penguins, though. Goaltending was the team's biggest issue early in the campaign and it remains a question mark. Tristan Jarry has a 3.62 GAA and a .883 save percentage through 14 outings and has surrendered at least three goals in three of his past four starts. Alex Nedeljkovic isn't giving the Penguins much of an alternative, though, with his own 3.26 GAA and .886 save percentage through 14 outings.

Pittsburgh does rank 28th in xGA/60 (3.30), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of the netminders deserves part of the blame. However, Nedeljkovic has a goals saved above expected of minus-6.0 while Jarry is at minus-6.5, so this seems to be a case of both a bad defense and poor goaltending. The result is Pittsburgh ranks last in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.68. For context, that's just outside of the top-10 worst of any team in the salary cap era (2005-06 and onward). Of the teams who have posted a goals allowed per game worse than Pittsburgh, none of them finished with a points percentage of .500 or better.

St. Louis Blues (Mon vs. PIT, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. TBL, Sun @ BUF)

The Blues will start next week with a game in Detroit on Monday, but after that, they'll return to St. Louis to host Nashville on Friday and Buffalo on Sunday. St. Louis has been a mixed bag in 2024-25, posting a 15-16-3 record going into Friday's action.

Jordan Binnington has left plenty to be desired this campaign with an 8-13-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .896 save percentage in 25 appearances. He's had some good stretches, but he's been inconsistent and is presently in a cold stretch after allowing at least three goals in six of his past seven games. His struggles have led to Joel Hofer becoming more of a 1B rather than a true backup, and Hofer might begin to migrate into being the 1A. The 24-year-old hasn't been stealing the show, but he has been the better option with a 7-3-0 record, 2.72 GAA and .907 save percentage through 11 appearances.

Of course, the Blues aren't alone in their goaltending woes. We just discussed a worse situation in Pittsburgh, but St. Louis doesn't have the offensive prowess to make up for it. The Blues rank 30th in goals per game with 2.50.

Robert Thomas has done well recently with four goals and 14 points across his past nine appearances while Jordan Kyrou has supplied seven goals and eight points over the same stretch, so the team isn't completely devoid of scoring, but it lacks depth and consistency.

Brandon Saad stands out as someone who has been disappointing when it comes to secondary scoring. After supplying 26 goals and 42 points in 82 outings last year, he has four markers and 10 points through 30 appearances in 2024-25. His decline has led to St. Louis using him less and less. He's even set to be a healthy scratch Friday. At this point, I don't have a lot of hope that he'll rebound, though he's not too old at 32, so anything is possible.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon @ MIN, Thu vs. PIT, FRI @ STL, Sun @ PIT)

Tampa Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and is 7-1-0 over its past eight to improve to 18-10-2 on the season. The Lightning will seek to keep that momentum going next week, when it plays in Florida on Monday and hosts the Rangers and the Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The Lightning deserve a lot of credit for moving on from Steven Stamkos and instead signing Jake Guentzel over the summer. While Stamkos has started to find his way with Nashville after a rocky start, Guentzel is four years younger and has proven to be a great fit.

Guentzel enjoyed an incredible seven-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 30-Dec. 17 and now has 18 markers and 33 points across 30 appearances in 2024-25. The trio of Guentzel, Brayden Point (21 goals and 38 points in 26 outings) and Nikita Kucherov (14 goals and 35 points in 31 appearances) have been wildly successful. It would not be shocking if each of those three finished the campaign with over 40 goals and 80 points. That alone would make the Lightning a dangerous adversary, but they also have Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli excelling on the second line with 37 and 28 points, respectively.

One underrated aspect of this team is how well Tampa Bay has performed defensively. The Lightning ranked 18th in xGA/60 last campaign (3.14) but are sixth in 2024-25 (2.78). That's part of the reason why Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked so much better this campaign, posting a 2.38 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 25 appearances compared to his 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 51 regular-season games last year.

Tampa Bay could use a better backup, though. Jonas Johansson has a 3.84 GAA and .882 save percentage in six appearances, and the Lightning's lack of trust in him has led to Tampa Bay leaning heavily on Vasilevskiy. The 30-year-old Vasilevskiy is no stranger to heavy workloads, but I have to wonder if the Lightning won't look to add a goaltender at some point in the hopes of managing Vasilevskiy a bit ahead of what Tampa Bay doubtlessly hopes will be a lengthy playoff run.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs. SEA, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. MIN, Sun @ BOS)

The Golden Knights have a relatively favorable week ahead of them. They'll host the Ducks on Monday, play in San Jose on Friday and then return home to face the Flames on Sunday. Vegas is 21-8-3 and has been particularly dominant at home (12-3-0), though the Golden Knights should also be heavy favorites against the 11-19-5 Sharks, even if that is a road engagement.

Injuries have been a recurring issue for Vegas in recent years, and while they haven't been immune to them in 2024-25, it hasn't been as bad. Vegas has nine forwards, including Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Tomas Hertl, and four defensemen, namely Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb, who have logged at least 29 of 32 games. That doesn't make Vegas special from a health perspective, but it's certainly not bad.

Mark Stone is the main notable exception to that. He was so good early in the campaign with six goals and 21 points through 13 appearances, but he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of 14 games from Nov. 8-Dec. 4. Since returning, he's been fine, but the injury stopped his momentum, leaving him with four assists across his past five outings.

Eichel's been healthy, though, and on his way to having the best campaign of his career. He's up to nine goals and 42 points through 32 outings. Eichel's never recorded more than 82 points in a single campaign, in large part due to injuries. That's killed the whole Eichel versus Connor McDavid debate -- although Eichel is the one with a championship, there's no question who has been more impressive -- but not too much has separated them so far this campaign. McDavid is narrowly ahead with 15 goals and 45 points through 29 outings.

Another former Sabres forward has been even hotter than Eichel recently. Surprisingly, Victor Olofsson has provided four goals over his past four games. He had just seven goals and 15 points over 51 outings last year, and a lower-body injury that sidelined him from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 (a total of 20 games missed) has complicated his first campaign with Vegas. However, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this going now that he's healthy. Olofsson did score 28 goals in 2022-23 and has surpassed the 20-goal milestone three times, so there is some upside here, especially with Vegas currently using him on the second line and first power-play unit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Nashville has a steep climb, Boston makes a coaching change, Winnipeg’s scoring slows down plus much, much more

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 01 Dec 2024 16:46:42 +0000

We’re a little over a quarter of the way through the season, so we’re at the point where teams that have been doing poorly should be nervous and nowhere is that truer than Nashville. The Predators made a big push over the summer with the additions of forwards Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, but the Predators are still just 7-12-6 and are tied for last offensively with 2.32 goals per game.

SUNRISE, FL - NOVEMBER 07: Nashville Predators Steven Stamkos (91) looks on during the game between the Nashville Predators and the Florida Panthers on Thursday November 07, 2024 at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla.(Photo by Chris Arjoon/Icon Sportswire)

At this point, the question isn’t if the situation is bad, it’s just how bad it is. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues are the gold standard for hope. At their worst, they looked like a lottery team, but in the end, they won the Stanley Cup. So how was St. Louis after 25 games? 9-13-3, which amounts to nearly the same record from a points perspective.

So maybe there’s still hope for the Predators, but there’s also a reason why the Blues are such a memorable story: For every 18-19 Blues, there are countless teams that performed poorly over the first two months and simply continued to be bad for the rest of the campaign. Plus, it’s not just about rebounding, it’s the magnitude of the task ahead of Nashville.

In 2023-24, it took 98 points to get a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Let’s say for the sake of argument, 93 points will end up being good enough this year. That would amount to a 36-20-1 record the rest of the way. In terms of points percentage, that’s .640, which is a pace currently exceeded by only six teams. So doable, but it needs to start soon because the longer Nashville is even mediocre, let alone bad, the task only gets harder.

Stamkos spoke about the problem after Friday’s 3-2 overtime loss to Tampa Bay on Friday, arguing that the Predators have too many players who aren’t working hard enough to create offense.

"It's OK to be frustrated because we're not scoring. But you counter that by work ethic and getting into the game in different ways," Stamkos said, per The Tennessean. "If you're not scoring, what else are you doing out there? What else can you do to help your team win? I've just felt like, for whatever reason, in these stretches, we tend to go the other way."

Rather than use that as motivation, the Predators then suffered a 3-2 overtime loss to Minnesota on Saturday. To be fair, the Wild are a great team, it was a close game, and the Predators were playing for the third time in four days. Those are all factors to make the loss more understandable. The trouble is, Nashville isn’t in a position to be content with understandable losses.

Boston Bruins (Tue vs DET, Wed @ CHI. Sat vs PHI)

Replacing head coach Jim Montgomery with Joe Sacco hasn’t helped the Bruins so far. They’re an okay, but not great 3-2-0 with their new bench boss, giving them an 11-11-3 record overall. That might change next week, though, thanks to a favorable schedule. Boston will host the Red Wings on Tuesday, play in Chicago on Wednesday and then return home to face the Flyers on Saturday.

Whenever there’s a new coach, it’s always a good idea to look for which players have benefited from the change. In the case of the Bruins, though, it’s a bit hard to find offensive winners because the team has continued the offensive struggles that were present under Montgomery. Boston averaged just 2.40 goals per game with Montgomery, and that’s dropped to a mere 2.00 goals per game under Sacco.

Elias Lindholm does have four points across the Bruins’ past five games, which is a step up from his nine points in 20 outings before the Montgomery firing, but take that with a grain of salt because his recent success is propped up by a three-assist showing against the Islanders on Wednesday. Lindholm has also been held off the scoresheet in three of the last five contests, which isn’t exactly confidence inspiring.

Tyler Johnson has recorded his first two assists of the 2024-25 campaign under Sacco, which is interesting, but Sacco also made Johnson a healthy scratch twice across the past five games. Still, I think Johnson is worth keeping an eye on because Boston desperately needs secondary scoring, and that’s a role he can fill.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Boston seems to have at least tightened its game defensively under Sacco, allowing just 1.60 goals per game with the new bench boss compared to 3.45 with Montgomery.

Jeremy Swayman has had a rough campaign with a 6-9-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .892 save percentage in 17 appearances in 2024-25, but he may have turned a corner, stopping 66 of 70 shots (.943 save percentage) across his past three starts. He still won only one of those outings due to a lack of offensive support, but if he can continue to play like he has been recently, then the Bruins will be in a far better position.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs CBJ, Thu @ STL, Sun @ DAL)

The Flames have a respectable 12-9-4 record, but they’ve dropped their last four games, putting them in danger of ruining their relatively positive start to the campaign. The Flames will try to right the ship in home games against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Blues on Thursday. Calgary will conclude the week with a challenging road tilt against the Stars.

Calgary’s recent losing skid has come on the road, which seems to be a theme for the Flames this year. They’re 9-3-0 at home and 3-6-4 outside of the Saddledome. It’s like looking at two different teams. In Calgary, the Flames have averaged 2.83 goals per game and have allowed 2.25 goals per game, but on the road that changes to 2.23 goals per game and 3.54 goals allowed per game.

Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the starkest examples of that home/road split. He leads the team offensively in Calgary with nine points (five goals) in 12 appearances and has just five points (three goals) in 13 road outings. Mikael Backlund is another forward who has fallen into that trap, supplying seven points (three goals) in 12 home games, but just three points (one goal) through 13 road appearances. Meanwhile, Andrei Kuzmenko has a goal and seven points at home, but just two assists on the road.

Nazem Kadri and Connor Zary are two exceptions who have done fine regardless. Kadri has a nine/eight home/road point split while Zary has supplied six points in each category. However, outside of rare cases like that, you might want to avoid using Calgary players on the road until the team shows it can travel better. Fortunately, that won’t be a concern for fantasy managers for the early stages of the upcoming week.

Colorado Avalanche (Tue @ BUF, Thu @ CAR, Sat @ DET, Sun @ NJD)

Colorado doesn’t have that stark contrast between home and away -- the Avalanche are mediocre in both cases, resulting in a 13-12-0 record. Colorado has lost its last two contests, but it will continue its quest to emerge from its early season inconsistency during a road stretch that will see the Avalanche in Buffalo on Tuesday, Carolina on Thursday, Detroit on Saturday and New Jersey on Sunday.

Injuries have been an ongoing story for the Avalanche this campaign, and I’ll discuss the latest on that front in a minute, but goaltending has also been part of the problem. Although Alexandar Georgiev has stabilized somewhat, he’s still left plenty to be desired with his 7-6-0 record, 3.33 GAA and .872 save percentage in 15 appearances in 2024-25. The problem Colorado faced was the 24-year-old Justus Annunen didn’t seem capable of stealing the job from him, posting a 6-4-0 record, 3.22 GAA and .872 save percentage across 11 outings.

As a result, Colorado packaged Annunen with a 2025 sixth-round pick Saturday to get Scott Wedgewood from Nashville. Wedgewood has a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage in five appearances this year, so it’s not like anyone holds any illusion that he will enter Colorado and be its savor, but at least he’s a veteran goaltender who has been serviceable in the past in the backup role. If nothing else, Wedgewood has a bigger opportunity to get starts in Colorado behind Georgiev than he did in Nashville behind Juuse Saros.

On the injury front, Miles Wood suffered an upper-body injury recently and is now regarded as month-to-month. Meanwhile, Jonathan Drouin, who made his return from injury Nov. 15, logged just four games before coming back out of the lineup and is now regarded as week-to-week. Defenseman Josh Manson (upper body) is also week-to-week after suffering the injury Friday. The only real silver lining on the injury front is that Ross Colton (foot) has started to skate.

This isn’t the most injured Colorado has been this year, but it’s still not great that Colorado has four players on IR or LTIR (Wood, Colton, Tucker Poolman and Gabriel Landeskog) as well as three more on the sidelines (Mason, Drouin and Oliver Kylington).

John Ludvig, who has logged just five games this year, will probably start playing regularly because of Mason and Kylington’s absences on the blue line. Nikolai Kovalenko will also probably feature semi-regularly on the second line until Drouin is back. At the end of the day, though, not much should be expected of Ludvig or Kovalenko from a fantasy perspective.

Dallas Stars (Mon @ UTA, Wed @ LAK, Fri @ VGK, Sun vs CGY)

The Central Division has been dominated by Winnipeg and Minnesota, but Dallas has been strong too with a 14-8-0 record. The Stars will look to maintain that success next week. They’ll play in Utah on Monday, Los Angeles on Wednesday and Vegas on Friday before concluding the week with a home game against the Flames on Sunday.

Dallas is lucky to have Matt Duchene. After the final three campaigns of his seven-year, $56 million contract were bought out by Nashville (a team which, incidentally, could really use him right now), it made a certain amount of sense for him to ink a one-year, $3 million contract for the 2023-24 season so that he would have a chance to reestablish himself. However, after scoring 25 goals and 65 points across 80 regular-season outings with the Stars in 2023-24, he decided to ink another one-year, $3 million contract for this season.

I have a hard time believing that’s the best he could do, but Dallas is a team that’s capable of competing for the Cup, and signing that massively team-friendly contract has allowed the Stars to ice the best roster they could. For his part, Duchene is thriving in Dallas with 12 goals and 27 points through 22 outings. After registering an assist in a 5-3 win over Colorado on Friday, he’s on a four-game scoring streak (two goals, four assists).

In contrast to Duchene’s success, Roope Hintz has left something to be desired. The 28-year-old forward has nine goals and 14 points through 21 appearances in 2024-25. That puts him on pace to reach the 30-goal milestone for the fourth straight campaign, but Hintz collapse in terms of playmaking has been noticeable. That might be in part due to some bad luck, though. Hintz is on pace for 15 primary assists in 2024-25, which would actually be just a mild drop from his 17 in 2023-24. However, he has only one secondary assist this year after reaching the double digits in that category in each of the previous three campaigns.

Hintz is playing alongside Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, so the assists should come. If his lower point total has led to fantasy managers in your league(s) undervaluing Hintz, then now would be a nice time to buy low.

Robertson is another good buy-low candidate. He has five goals and 13 points through 22 appearances, in large part because of a nine-game stretch from Oct. 26-Nov. 18 in which he had no goals and two assists. The 25-year-old has been inconsistent this campaign, but he has also supplied over 25 goals and 79 points in each of his previous three years, so I have faith that he’s going to start turning things around. One key area to monitor is his performance on the power play. He finished each of the past three campaigns with over 20 points with the man advantage, but he’s been limited to just a goal and three points in that category in 2024-25.

Keep in mind that Robertson missed a good chunk of training camp and didn’t play in the preseason because he was recovering from foot surgery. His old linemate Joe Pavelski is also gone after retiring over the summer. Those might be contributing factors for his sluggish start, but Robertson should still find his rhythm as the campaign progresses.

Florida Panthers (Tue @ PIT, Thu @ PHI, Sat vs SJS)

Florida has won its past three games decisively, outscoring the competition 17-4. The Panthers will take that momentum into Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Florida will then play in Philadelphia on Thursday and host the Sharks on Saturday.

Sam Bennett continues to be a pleasant surprise for the Panthers. He’s been a solid secondary scorer for years, but he’s found another level this season, supplying 12 goals and 23 points through 24 appearances. He’s showing no signs of slowing either, supplying three markers and four points over his past three outings. His 16.2 shooting percentage is a potential warning sign -- his career average is 10.6 -- but he’s also generating assists at a much better rate than normal, so his success might be more than just some good puck luck.

Bennett’s far from the only Panthers forward who has done well recently. Evan Rodrigues has been streaky this campaign and is going through one of his good patches, supplying a goal and three points across his past three games. That gives him six goals and 13 points through 25 outings in 2024-25.

The only major point of concern for Florida thus far has been Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a 3.04 GAA and an .890 save percentage through 17 appearances in 2024-25. While I wouldn’t write off a netminder as accomplished as Bobrovsky over a sluggish start, Spencer Knight has outperformed him thus far with a 2.31 GAA and .911 save percentage across nine outings, so it would be interesting to see if the Panthers shift to a 1A/1B arrangement. That would also help keep the 36-year-old veteran fresh for the playoffs, especially given Bobrovsky’s heavy workload in recent years due to Florida’s back-to-back trips to the finals.

New York Islanders (Tue @ MTL, Thu vs SEA, Sat vs CAR, Sun @ OTT)

The Panthers rank fifth in terms of goals per game (3.64) while the Islanders are 26th (2.56), but surprisingly, New York is the team with more players who have hit double digits in terms of goals. Sam Reinhart and Bennett have achieved that feat with the Panthers while Kyle Palmieri, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson have each provided 10 markers with the Islanders.

Will that trio be able to save the sinking Islanders, who have lost six of their past eight games? The squad will play in Montreal on Tuesday before returning home for contests against the Kraken on Thursday and the Hurricanes on Saturday. New York will round out the week with a road game in Ottawa on Sunday.

Nelson has been the Islanders’ most successful forward during the squad’s eight-game slump, providing four goals and eight points over that span. Lee and Palmieri have also held their own with six and five points, respectively -- each of them also supplied three markers during that stretch.

Still, the absence of Mathew Barzal (upper body) continues to be noticeable. He hasn’t played since Oct. 30 and isn’t expected to return this week. The other issue is Bo Horvat’s goal-scoring drought has reached 11 games (he has five assists in that span). Maybe Horvat will get better when his usual linemate, Barzal, is healthy. Either way, Horvat’s shooting percentage has dropped to 7.1, well below his career average of 13.4.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Mon vs CHI, Wed vs NAS, Fri vs WAS, Sat @ PIT)

Toronto got some good news Saturday with the return of Auston Matthews (upper body) and Matthew Knies (upper body). Both made their presence felt with Matthews supplying two assists while Knies recorded a goal and a helper. Getting Matthews back is especially big for the Maple Leafs, and the sniper will aim to make his presence felt next week with the Maple Leafs scheduled to play at home against Chicago on Monday, Nashville on Wednesday and Washington on Friday. The Maple Leafs will also face the Penguins on the road Saturday.

Getting Knies and Matthews back will likely result in a reduced role for rookie Fraser Minten. The 20-year-old averaged 15:11 of ice time, including 3:32 with the man advantage, over his first three outings from Nov. 20-27, but he dropped to 11:31 on Saturday and wasn’t deployed at all with the man advantage (though Toronto had just one power play in the match).

If Max Domi (lower body) and Bobby McMann (lower body) rejoin the lineup without any other Maple Leafs forwards going down, then Minten might find himself reassigned to the AHL where he can play a bigger role. Still, Minten has shown promise during this NHL stint, supplying a goal and three points across four appearances.

While Minten took advantage of the Maple Leafs’ stretch of injuries, Nicholas Robertson has left plenty to be desired. He did score Saturday, but it was just his second goal and point through 20 outings in 2024-25. Although Robertson reportedly requested a trade over the summer, nothing came of that, and he certainly hasn’t done anything to make himself more appealing to other clubs. He’s still just 23, so it’s too early to write him off, but even as a middle-six secondary scorer, he hasn’t looked great this year. If the Maple Leafs find themselves fully healthy, it’s not clear if there will even be a regular spot for him in the lineup anymore.

Winnipeg Jets (Tue vs STL, Thu @ BUF, Sat @ CHI, Sum vs CBJ)

Winnipeg enjoyed a stunning 15-1-0 start, but the Jets have perhaps shown some cracks lately, dropping five of their past eight games. We’ll see if they stabilize next week. They’ll play at home against the Blues on Tuesday, play in Buffalo on Thursday, and in Chicago on Saturday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Sunday.

What’s changed for the Jets recently? For starters, their stars haven’t been quite as effective. Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers each provided at least 1.25 points per game across Winnipeg’s opening 16 games and none of them have averaged a point per game since. Nikolaj Ehlers has seen the biggest decline, going from nine goals and 20 points through 16 appearances to five assists and a minus-7 rating over his past eight games.

It's not just the Jets’ top three forwards, though. Winnipeg’s offensive production has been down pretty much across the board. The Jets were averaging an unbelievable 4.56 goals per game through their first 16 games, but Winnipeg’s average has dropped to 2.50 over its past eight contests. We talked about the Jets’ success earlier this month, and at the time I briefly touched on this:

“It is worth noting that Moneypuck ranks Winnipeg 21st in xG/60 with 2.99, so there’s an argument to be made that the Jets have enjoyed good puck luck.”

If we look at where Winnipeg is today, its xG/60 is slightly higher at 3.08. That metric shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but it does suggest that the Jets were significantly overperforming offensively early in the campaign, which makes the fall less shocking. By the same token, Winnipeg is now underperforming, so there’s reason to believe that this will all balance out eventually, and the Jets will finish the campaign as an above average, but not phenomenal scoring team.

Which is okay because Winnipeg’s strength lies in its goaltending more than its forwards. Connor Hellebuyck did have a rough patch from Nov. 12-19 in which he allowed 11 goals on 90 shots (.878 save percentage), but he’s having a fantastic campaign overall with a 15-3-0 record, 2.11 GAA and .928 save percentage in 18 outings. The Jets offense might not be as good as initially advertised, but Hellebuyck should continue to have a season worthy of Vezina Trophy contention.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Marner and Tavares Leading Maple Leafs, Ducks Battling and More

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 23 Nov 2024 15:51:24 +0000

_{TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) skates with the puck during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on December 3rd, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)}

In fantasy play, we try to look for any advantage we can, so it’s always helpful if there are reliable factors that we can consider that might impact a game's outcome. For example, all else being equal, a rested team should have an advantage over a tired one, right? That’s an easy assumption to make, but I wondered how reliable a factor that was, so I looked into it.

Teams on the second half of a back-to-back have a 31-40-6 record this season, but that’s a fairly small sample size for this kind of thing, so let’s take the results of every game dating back to the 2005-06 campaign. Looking at that, the record for teams playing on no rest is 3,560-3,394-943. If you count overtime/shootout losses among the defeats, that’s a .451 winning percentage, which is statistically relevant, but not dramatic.

What about playing on the road? That’s another obvious disadvantage, but how serious of a burden is it? Dating back to 2005-06, the road team has a 10,460-9,834-2,698 record, which is a .455 winning percentage. In other words, playing on the road is only a slightly smaller burden than playing on no rest. While we’re at it, let’s combine the two: A road team playing on no rest has a winning percentage of just .425 (2,298-2,464-640). So if you really want to bank on a team underperforming relative to their average, then taking a team on the second half of a back-to-back on the road is the way to go.

In the reverse, is there an ideal amount of rest for a team? Teams that had one day off between games have a winning percentage of .508 (12,265-9,101-2,759), two days is .521 (4,368-3,051-962), three days is .501 (1,106-845-255) and four or more days is .493 (1,034-822-242), so two days rest between games is the sweet spot, but difference in those winning percentages isn’t significant.

Ultimately, believing a team on the road or a tired squad will underperform is going to prove to be a fair assessment often, but it’s not a magic bullet. By the same token, key injuries don’t always lead to the results we might anticipate. The Avalanche certainly struggled early in the campaign when they had far more than their fair share of players on the shelf, but recently, the Maple Leafs have been defying expectations.

At the time of writing, Toronto is now 6-1-0 without Auston Matthews this season. On Wednesday, Toronto was missing Max Domi (lower body), Calle Jarnkrok (groin), David Kampf (lower body), Max Pacioretty (lower body) and Ryan Reaves (suspension) in addition to Matthews (upper body), and Toronto still managed to beat Vegas 3-0. To be fair, the Golden Knights had injuries of their own at the time of the contest, most notably to Mark Stone (lower body), but they were the healthier team and a top-tier contender, so the Maple Leafs continuing to excel under those circumstances is impressive.

Mitch Marner has been a major factor in Toronto’s continued success, providing six goals and 26 points through 20 appearances, and the Vegas victory was his third straight multi-point showing. He’s never reached the 100-point milestone before, but he’s come close and might finally hit that mark this campaign. John Tavares has also stepped up recently, supplying four goals and eight points across six appearances, giving him nine goals and 19 points through 19 outings.

Both are also playing on an expiring contract, and there are questions about their future with the team. The lack of playoff success has led to frustration regarding Toronto’s model of building the squad around four extremely expensive forwards. Going into the campaign, there was an assumption that at the least, the 34-year-old Tavares would take a significant pay cut from his current $11 million cap hit in his next contract given his declining production. That might still happen, but his play so far this season suggests that talk of his decline might have been overstated, and, especially with the cap rising, he might still be able to command a sizable payday. Then there’s Marner, who presumably expects a raise from his $10.903 million cap hit and will likely get it with Toronto or elsewhere.

The Maple Leafs certainly have some big front office questions to answer, in the coming months, but at least on the ice, things seem to be going well for now despite the challenges.

Anaheim Ducks

Mon vs SEA, Wed @ SEA, Fri vs LAK, Sun vs OTT

The NHL schedule next week contains some very heavy dates: There will be 11 games Monday, 15 on Wednesday, 14 on Friday and 12 on Saturday. Due to that, a lot of teams are playing four times despite the league taking Thursday off for American Thanksgiving.

Every team featured will be playing in four games, starting with the Ducks, who will host Seattle on Monday, play in Seattle on Wednesday and then return to Anaheim for contests against the Kings on Friday and Senators on Sunday.

The Ducks were also a team I highlighted last week and noted the squad’s underwhelming offense, but going into Friday’s action, Anaheim is on a three-game winning streak in which it’s tallied a combined 13 goals.

Trevor Zegras has gotten in on the action, supplying a goal and three points over that span, which doubles his season point total to six. We discussed last week that he had been dealing with some bad puck luck and has been playing a more complete game despite his offensive woes, so perhaps everything is starting to come together for him. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate, especially because Zegras continues to serve in a top-six capacity.

If you’re looking for the hottest forward on the Ducks, though, then Brett Leason is your man. He didn’t start the campaign was much of a role, even being a healthy scratch in five of six games from Oct. 27-Nov. 8, but he’s taken off with two goals and seven points across his last five outings. Leason has also averaged 15:00 of ice time, including 1:28 with the man advantage, across his past four appearances, so he’s finally getting a solid opportunity. The 25-year-old still isn’t likely to be a major offensive force for long -- you'd have to go back to his junior days to find the last time he was a major scorer -- but he’s providing some solid short-term value.

On the blueliner, Olen Zellweger has two goals and four points over his last three appearances, bringing him up to four goals and eight points across 17 outings in 2024-25. The 21-year-old is serving on the top power-play unit, but the Ducks rank 27th with the man advantage, converting just 15.3 percent of the time, so it’s not as good of a role as it could be. Still, Zellweger should at least breach the 30-point mark this year as long as he stays healthy.

Boston Bruins

Tue vs. VAN, Wed @ NYI, Fri vs. PIT, Sun vs. MTL

After three straight losses to drop their record to 8-9-3, the Bruins fired head coach Jim Montgomery and named Joe Sacco as the interim bench boss. Boston’s first game under Sacco saw the Bruins outshoot Utah 31-21 en route to a 1-0 victory. Joonas Korpisalo was in net for the shutout, improving to 4-2-1 with a 2.38 GAA and .911 save percentage in eight appearances. Given Jeremy Swayman’s struggles -- he has a 5-7-2 record, 3.47 GAA and .884 save percentage in 14 outings -- it'll be interesting to see if Sacco leans on Korpisalo more than his predecessor.

Next week, though, both goaltenders will likely see use given the packed schedule. The Bruins will host the Canucks on Tuesday, play on the road against the Islanders on Wednesday and conclude the week with home tilts versus the Penguins and Canadiens on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Swayman has been part of the problem in Boston, but the Bruins also rank 31st offensively with just 2.33 goals per game. David Pastrnak continues to lead the charge with eight goals and 18 points through 21 outings, but he’s the only player with at least 15 points. Meanwhile, Brad Marchand (five goals, 14 points) and Elias Lindholm (three goals, 10 points) are the only other two Bruins who have hit the double-digit mark. To put that into context, 200 players have at least 10 points through Thursday’s action, which averages out to 6.25 players per team, so Boston is far behind the curve in terms of its scoring depth.

He's probably not the answer, but I am interested to see if Sacco tries to get Tyler Johnson into games. The 34-year-old forward has appeared in just five contests in 2024-25, averaging 13:31 of ice time in those outings. Although he hasn’t recorded a point this year, Johnson has proved in the past to be a decent secondary scorer, so maybe he could do some damage from the third line if given a chance to get into a rhythm by playing regularly.

Outside of that, though, the Bruins just really need more out of players who were already getting opportunities. The issue for Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha isn’t a lack of ice time, it’s just that they haven’t put up points with any regularity. Coyle has just four goals and an assist through 21 outings after recording 60 points in 2023-24. Zacha has three goals and seven points, but after showing some life from Nov. 7-12 (two goals and four points in three games), he’s on a four-game point drought.

Maybe the answer is simply to just some forward groupings and stick with it for a while. Coyle’s most common linemates this campaign are Marchand and Morgan Geekie, but that trio has only shared the ice for 11.9 percent of Coyle’s even-strength minutes. That’s a lot of line mixing, which might lead to an inability to develop chemistry. It’s something to monitor as we see what Sacco’s plans are to reverse the Bruins’ fortunes.

Los Angeles Kings

Mon @ SJS, Wed vs. WPG, Fri @ ANA, Sat vs. OTT

The Kings will start the week on the road against San Jose on Monday but return home to host the Jets on Wednesday. LA will then play in Anaheim on Friday and host the Senators on Saturday.

The Kings have seen modest success with their 10-7-3 record, but they have dropped three of their past four games, recording just seven goals over that stretch.

Quinton Byfield is among the cold forwards with only an assist across his past five outings. He has two goals and nine points through 20 appearances overall. Interestingly, he hasn’t recorded a single point on the power play in 2024-25 despite averaging a solid 2:07 of ice time with the man advantage. LA does rank 29th in power-play conversions at 14.3 percent, so that is an obvious factor, but you’d still expect at least some production there. Byfield’s 5.3 shooting percent is also a sharp drop from his 12.4 percent in 2023-24 -- he finished that campaign with 20 goals and 55 points -- so the young forward might have been somewhat unlucky through the first quarter of the season. Don’t be surprised if his production ticks up as the campaign progresses.

Philip Danault also has struggled to find the back of the net, tallying a single goal through 20 appearances, though he does have nine assists. His 3.2 shooting percentage is far below his 12.3 average from 2021-22 through 2023-24, so Danault is another LA forward who could enjoy an increase in production.

At the other end of the spectrum, Adrian Kempe is red hot, supplying four goals over his past three games (LA has totaled just six total goals in that span), bringing him up to nine markers and 18 points through 20 appearances. Even there, though, Kempe has just three power-play points. LA did far better with the man advantage in 2023-24, ranking 12th with a 22.6 success rate, so these players could see an increase in special-teams points.

Minnesota Wild

Mon vs. WPG, Wed @ BUF, Fri vs. CHI, Sat vs. NSH

One team that’s had no offensive issues -- or any issues, really -- is Minnesota. The Wild have won three of their past four games, improving to 13-3-3. They’ll look to keep the good times rolling when they host another high-end squad in Winnipeg on Monday. From there, Minnesota will play in Buffalo on Wednesday before returning home to play the Blackhawks on Friday and the Predators on Saturday.

Filip Gustavsson continues to be a key part of the Wild’s success with his 9-3-2 record, 2.07 GAA and .926 save percentage through 14 appearances. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in each of his past five starts. Marc-Andre Fleury, by contrast, isn’t turning heads with his play, but the 39-year-old has been a capable backup with a 4-0-1 record, 2.76 GAA and .904 save percentage in five starts.

Up front, Kirill Kaprizov is on a seven-game scoring streak with six goals and 13 points in that span, bringing him up to 13 goals and 34 points through 19 appearances in 2024-25. Even with his $9 million annual cap hit, he’s providing tremendous value. Kaprizov’s contract runs through 2025-26, but by the time it expires, the Wild will be in a far better cap position because Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyouts will be far smaller factors. The Wild have roughly $14.7 million in dead cap space this year, but Suter and Parise will generate a combined $1,666,666 in dead cap space annually from 2025-26 through 2028-29 before coming off the books entirely.

Paying Kaprizov top dollar when the time comes makes sense given his reliability as a top offensive threat. Someone who doesn’t factor onto the scoresheet nearly as regularly is Frederick Gaudreau, but the 31-year-old has been playing like an elite recently, providing four goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances. Gaudreau is worth having in your lineup while he’s this hot, but don’t expect it to last, and keep in mind that even with his recent rise in production, he’s still serving in just a third-line capacity. He is also on the second power-play unit instead of the top one and hasn’t gotten a point yet with the man advantage.

New Jersey Devils

Mon vs. NSH, Wed vs. STL, Fri @ DET, Sat vs. WSH

We’ve already touched on a lot of players who haven’t put up noteworthy power-play numbers, so let’s shift to New Jersey, which ranks second with the man advantage with a 31.8 percent success rate.

The Devils will host the Predators on Monday and the Blues on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Detroit on Friday before returning home to face the Capitals on Saturday.

New Jersey’s power play and offense in general is certainly part of the reason the squad is 13-7-2. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton has played a significant role in that, providing two goals and 16 points, including seven with the man advantage, through 22 appearances. He was held off the scoresheet for the first six games of 2024-25 but has since recorded at least a point in 13 of 16 appearances.

Hamilton wasn’t much of a factor in 2023-24 due to injury, which led to Luke Hughes serving on the top power-play unit last year. Hamilton’s return to health means Hughes is averaging just 1:04 with the man advantage in 2024-25 and that’s eaten into the young blueliner’s production. The 21-year-old Hughes also missed New Jersey’s first nine outings because of a shoulder problem, which likely put him behind the curve. All this has led to him recording just two assists through 13 outings. Hughes might start to do better as he gets into a rhythm, but this is shaping up to be a sophomore slump campaign.

His elder brother, Jack Hughes, is doing just fine, though. He already has eight goals and 25 points through 22 appearances. The older Hughes is also red hot with six helpers across his past three outings, including five on the power play.

Of course, the Devils did just fine last season too and still missed the playoffs. The difference this year has been improved goaltending. Jacob Markstrom isn’t in Vezina Trophy contention, but he’s holding his own nicely with a 9-5-1 record, 2.54 GAA and .907 save percentage through 15 appearances. Jake Allen is also playing an arguably underrated role as the backup, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.30 GAA and .916 save percentage in seven starts. Especially in a busy week, like the one upcoming, having two solid goaltenders is a huge luxury.

New York Islanders

Mon vs. DET, Wed vs. BOS, Fri @ WSH, Sat vs. BUF

The Islanders have two solid goaltenders too, though it hasn’t always felt that way this season. Ilya Sorokin has more-or-less fulfilled his end of the bargain with a 2.64 GAA and a .914 save percentage through 12 appearances, but Semyon Varlamov struggled early in the campaign. He has stabilized since, but that early damage has left him with a .903 save percentage, although his GAA has improved to a respectable 2.60.

Either way, it’s the offense that’s really the problem with the Islanders, and that’s what they’ll need more of next week. New York will host the Red Wings on Monday and the Bruins on Wednesday. They’ll then play in Washington on Friday and conclude the week with a home game versus the Sabres.

The Islanders have managed just four goals over their past three games and weirdly, Pierre Engvall scored two of them. Engvall had a three-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 14-19, but the 28-year-old finished with just 10 goals and 28 points in 74 outings last season and has just five points through 12 outings in 2024-25 even after accounting for his recent hot streak, so don’t expect much from him going forward.

The player the Islanders really need to step up is Bo Horvat, but he’s been held off the scoresheet in five of his past six appearances, leaving him with five goals and 14 points through 20 outings. Those are abysmal numbers given his $8.5 million cap hit, but to be far, he’d usually get to play alongside Mathew Barzal, who hasn’t been in the lineup since Oct. 30 due to an upper-body injury. However, Barzal’s original timetable was 4-6 weeks, and there hasn’t been much in the way of updates, so you shouldn’t count on Horvat getting help from Barzal in the upcoming week.

Anders Lee is sometimes a great linemate. He has seven goals and 13 points in 20 outings in 2024-25, but he’s also streaky and is presently cold, having been held off the scoresheet in each of the Islanders’ past three games.

Then there’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who highlights the Islanders’ lack of depth. The 32-year-old forward is a fine forward, but he’s never recorded more than 43 points in a single campaign, so the fact that he’s on the top line and first power-play unit is far less than ideal. He has five goals and nine points through 20 appearances in 2024-25.

Horvat and Lee might heat up again, but the Islanders’ overall offensive situation isn’t likely to get a lot better until Barzal comes back.

New York Rangers

Mon vs. STL, Wed @ CAR, Fri @ PHI, Sat vs. MTL

The Islanders’ rivals, the Rangers, appear to be in a far better position. They have a 12-5-1 record and will look to build on that next week. The Rangers will host the Blues on Monday, play in Carolina on Wednesday and Philadelphia on Friday and finish the week by hosting the Canadiens on Saturday.

Artemi Panarin continues to be the Rangers’ top forward with 10 goals and 24 points in 18 appearances in 2024-25, but offensive depth has been a big part of the Rangers’ formula. They have eight players who have hit double digits in points: Panarin, Adam Fox, Alexis Lafreniere, Will Cuylle, Mika Zibanejad, Reilly Smith, Kaapo Kakko and Vincent Trocheck. As noted before, the average team has 6.25 players who have hit that milestone. On top of that, New York has two players -- Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil -- who are sitting at nine points.

Among those who have been at the forefront of the Rangers’ attack, Cuylle is arguably the biggest pleasant surprise. The 22-year-old has seven goals and 15 points through 18 appearances. He established himself as a regular with the team last campaign but was in the lineup primarily because of his gritty play, finishing the 2023-24 regular season with 13 goals, 21 points, 56 PIM and 249 hits. Cuylle has continued to utilize his size, dishing out 75 hits this season (he ranks fifth in that category), but he’s adding an offensive element to his game.

What makes it even more impressive is that he’s averaging a modest 13:50 of ice time and is rarely used with the man advantage -- although that might be changing as he has spent the past two games on the second unit. Among those averaging under 14 minutes, Cuylle leads the league in points, ahead of Carolina’s Eric Robinson (five goals, 13 points).

One word of caution, though: Cuylle’s 21.9 shooting percentage is likely unsustainable.

Seattle Kraken

Mon @ ANA, Wed vs. ANA, Fri @ SJS, Sat vs. SJS

The Kraken has a fairly easy schedule next week. They have a set of games against Anaheim on Monday and Wednesday followed by one against the Sharks on Friday and Saturday. In both cases, Seattle is on the road for the first half of the set and at home for the second.

Defenseman Vince Dunn (upper body) might end up returning at some point during those four games, but the status of forward Jordan Eberle (lower body) is less clear. By the time you read this, though, that might change. Kraken coach Dan Bylsma told Scott Malone on Friday that there would be an update later in the day, but at the time of writing, that update hadn’t arrived yet.

Dunn is likely to serve on the top four and first power-play unit when healthy, which might eat into Brandon Montour’s power-play time and result in Ryker Evans losing his spot on the second unit. However, just three of Montour’s 13 points and two of Evans’ 11 have come with the man advantage anyway, so that change shouldn’t have a dramatic impact on either blueliner’s production. Dunn’s return might help Seattle’s overall power play a bit, which sits at 23rd with a 16.4 conversion rate, which would modestly boost the value of Seattle’s top forwards.

Either way, Joey Daccord is likely to continue to be the key to Seattle’s success. He has a 9-3-1 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in 13 appearances in 2024-25, putting him in the very early conversation for the Vezina Trophy. Daccord did rank fourth in save percentage (.916) and fifth in GAA (2.46) among goaltenders who logged at least 30 games last season, but his 19-18-11 record kept him well outside of the award conversation. If Seattle continues to provide him with at least some support this year -- the Kraken’s 2.85 goals per game isn’t magical, but it is a step up from 2.61 in 2023-24 -- then Daccord’s a fair bet to get over 30 wins this campaign, especially with Philipp Grubauer not exactly demanding a bigger share of the workload with his 1-6-0 record, 3.11 GAA and .881 save percentage through seven outings in 2024-25.