John Gibson – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fallout from the Quinn Hughes trade, Connor Bedard’s injury, the Maple Leafs’ stars are slumping, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:50:22 +0000

SAINT PAUL, MN - DECEMBER 16: Minnesota Wild defensemen Quinn Hughes (43) back-checks during a NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and Washington Capitals on December 16, 2025, at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the fallout from the Quinn Hughes trade, Connor Bedard’s injury, the Maple Leafs’ stars are slumping, and so much more!

#1 The Vancouver Canucks and Minnesota Wild made a monstrous trade last week with the Wild acquiring standout defenceman Quinn Hughes, sending centre Marco Rossi, defender Zeev Buium, left winger Liam Ohgren, and a first-round pick to Vancouver. Hughes has 25 points (3 G, 22 A) in 29 games, his 0.86 points per game ranking ninth among defencemen. He is also being thrust into a big role with the Wild. He played a career-high 32:02 in Thursday’s win at Columbus, the most by an NHL player in a game decided in regulation this season.

#2 One of the things that the Canucks needed in a Hughes deal was to upgrade their centre position. With Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil injured, the Canucks did not have much firepower down the middle of the ice and even if they were healthy, Pettersson has not been delivering peak performance and Chytil was still trying to establish that he could be a bona fide second-line centre. Marco Rossi at least has the credentials to fit in a team’s top six. He has been hurt this season and has been held off the scoresheet in his first two games for the Canucks, but he does have 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in 19 games and he had a career-high 60 points (24 G, 36 A) last season. With Petterson out, Rossi is centering Jake DeBrusk and Brock Boeser on Vancouver’s top line. It’s not as good as centering Kirill Kaprizov, but still a decent opportunity to generate offense.

#3 Perhaps the most intriguing piece going to Vancouver is that of 2024 first-round pick Zeev Buium. He had 98 points (24 G, 74 A) in 83 games across two seasons at the University of Denver before joining the Wild late last season and he played in four playoff games for Minnesota. As a rookie, he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 33 games, including two points in two games with Vancouver, and he is effectively taking over from Hughes on the Canucks’ top power play unit, so there is an excellent chance for Buium to step into a bigger role and thrive. It’s a super small sample, but his average ice time has increased two-and-a-half minutes per game in Vancouver compared to Minnesota.

#4 The upshot of the trade for Minnesota, when it comes to centre ice, is that Joel Eriksson Ek resumes his position of primary importance for the Wild. Eriksson Ek has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 17 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. Rookie Danila Yurov is showing that he can handle more responsibility, too, contributing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past 14 games, so the Wild can run those two in the top two centre spots while continuing to look for potential upgrades.

#5 Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard has been on a tear in his third NHL campaign, putting up 44 points (19 G, 25 A) in 31 games, but he is on the shelf for a bit after suffering a shoulder injury in the final second of last week’s loss at St. Louis. Bedard is out for the rest of the month, to be re-evaluated in January. He obviously would like to be ready to go for the Winter Olympics, but in the meantime, the Blackhawks will try to fill that gaping hole in their lineup. Frank Nazar has moved up to the top line, skating between Tyler Bertuzzi and Andre Burakovsky, with veteran Jason Dickinson moving into the second-line centre role. Nazar had been slumping, with zero points in six games, before scoring in Thursday’s loss at Montreal.

#6 Trouble appears to be hovering around the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they have two wins in their past six games. Auston Matthews has nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his past 10 games, which is far better than the Leafs’ other big guns. William Nylander has zero goals, four assists, and 11 shots on goal in eight games this month. John Tavares has one assist and 12 shots on goal in his past seven games. Matthew Knies has one assist and 11 shots on goal in his past six games. When the stars are struggling like this, there may not be any coach that can have success, but it’s going to be worth keeping an eye on Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube because if he can’t get this fixed, a new voice could be on the way.

#7 It has been a real season for growth for Florida Panthers centre Anton Lundell, thrust into a bigger role when Aleksander Barkov was injured in the preseason. Lundell has seen his ice time climb from 16:43 per game last season to over 19 minutes per game this season and while there have been some ebbs and flows in terms of productivity, he does have seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games, giving him 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 33 games this season.

#8 San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini is enjoying a spectacular sophomore season, with 53 points (18 G, 35 A) in 35 games but he’s not available, certainly on the waiver wire and not under many trade circumstances, either, but it could be worth tracking his wingers. With Will Smith injured, Collin Graf is skating on Celebrini’s right wing and Graf has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. On the left wing is Igor Chernyshov, a second-round pick in 2024 who had 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 25 AHL games to earn his promotion to the big club and has chipped in a couple of assists and four shots on goal in his first two games. Both Graf and Chernyshov are worth a look, depending on how deep your league runs.

#9 When the Carolina Hurricanes signed Nikolaj Ehlers as a free agent in the offseason, it seemed like it would be a good fit, between a player who drives play and a team that has excelled in terms of outshooting opponents. Then the season started and Ehlers had no points through five games, and didn’t score his first goal until Game 12, but he has found his groove. He has 19 points (8 G, 11 A) with 58 shots on goal in his past 22 games. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis are the only Hurricanes forwards with more points and both play more than 19 minutes per game while Ehlers is averaging 16:27 of ice time per game.

#10 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson got off to a slow start this season, managing a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal in his first 25 games. Even as the season is slipping away from the Kraken, Stephenson has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 20 shots on goal during a seven-game point streak. He is getting first unit power play time in Seattle, though his current wingers are Eeli Tolvanen and Frederick Gaudreau.

#11 Following a lukewarm start to his time with the Detroit Red Wings, goaltender John Gibson looks like he’s rounding into form. In his past five starts, all wins, he has a couple of shutouts and a .946 save percentage, giving him a slight statistical edge over Cam Talbot in the Red Wings’ timeshare in the crease.

#12 Veteran centre Alexander Wennberg is filling a big role for the Sharks. With some injuries up front, the 31-year-old pivot who is known for his solid two-way play, is handling more offensive responsibilities. In his past six games, Wennberg has nine points (2 G, 7 A) with 13 shots on goal, while averaging 20:30 of ice time per game. With William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli on his wings, Wennberg has more skilled linemates than he usually has and, with 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 35 games, he has a shot at his first 40-point season since 2016-2017.

#13 Ottawa Senators centre Dylan Cozens has had some bad luck on his way to getting outscored 21-14 during five-on-five play. The Senators carry play with him on the ice (53.7 CF%), but he has a .879 on-ice save percentage and that’s difficult to overcome. In his past five games, Cozens has produced seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while playing nearly 19 minutes per game, so he’s a valuable player for the Sens, even if goal differential is not working in his favour right now.

#14 Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson appears to be gearing up for the Winter Olympics. Since the calendar flipped to December, Karlsson has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) with 31 shots on goal in nine games. He has also played 26:42 per game in that span, vintage ice time numbers for a 35-year-old defender on a team that is sitting outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.

#15 One of the relative success stories in Pittsburgh this season has been Anthony Mantha, the towering winger who was signed as a free agent in the summer after he missed most of last season in Calgary with a torn ACL. Mantha has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 33 games. The last time he finished a season with a rate of two points every three games was in 2019-2020, so the Penguins have to be pleased with how their low-risk investment has turned out.

#16 Expectations are understandably modest for a 20-year-old rookie defenceman, just trying to get established in the league, so it’s not like Detroit Red Wings blueliner Axel Sandin-Pellikka is a high recommendation for fantasy managers. It’s more like keep an eye on this guy because this 2023 first-round pick might have a bright future. In his past eight games, he has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with nine shots on goal. A couple of those points have come via the power play, and he is getting time on PP2, so he's just scratching the surface.

#17 The all-time goal scoring leader in the National Hockey League is in a slump. Alex Ovechkin has no goals and two assists in his past six games, with 17 shots on goal in that time. That shot rate isn’t bad for most players, but it’s down for a noted volume shooter like Ovechkin. He is 40 years old, so there is plenty of reason to believe that he’s declining, but before this slump he had 14 goals in 28 games, so this decline is more recent. This slump has affected Dylan Strome, too, as the playmaking centre has just three points (1 G, 2 A) and 18 shot on goal in his past 13 games.

#18 New York Islanders centre Bo Horvat is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, a big loss to the Islanders as he leads the Islanders with 19 goals and 31 points. Mathew Barzal moves up the depth chart to fill the top line centre spot with Horvat out, but the bigger jump is that rookie Calum Ritchie is centering the second line, between Anthony Duclair and Maxim Shabanov. Ritchie has four points (2 G, 2 A) and seven shots on goal in his past eight games. He’s still trying to establish solid footing in the league, but this could be a good opportunity for him.

#19 Los Angeles Kings netminder Darcy Kuemper suffered an injury in a collision with Dallas Stars winger Mikko Rantanen and that’s big deal because Kuemper has been excellent this season. His .917 save percentage ranks fourth among goaltenders with at least 20 starts. In his absence Anton Forsberg should get most of the starts, and the Kings have called up veteran Pheonix Copley, who had a .885 save percentage in 13 AHL games.

#20 Injuries continue to pile up in St. Louis, where Dylan Holloway is now out for six weeks with a lower-body injury, joining Jordan Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Nick Bjugstad on the injured list. That has brought some new faces into the Blues’ top nine. Robby Fabbri isn’t exactly a new face, having played for the Blues from 2015-2016 through 2019-2020, but he’s back after not having an NHL job at the start of the season. The Blues called up 2023 first-round pick Otto Stenberg from the AHL and claimed Jonatan Berggren off waivers from the Detroit Red Wings. None of those players is worth of much fantasy love at the moment but they’re getting chances that they weren’t before all of these injuries hit the Blues.

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – DETROIT RED WINGS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:51:57 +0000

DETROIT, MI - FEBRUARY 09: Detroit Red Wings Right Wing Lucas Raymond (23) in action during the game between Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings on February 9, 2023 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire)

For the ninth straight season, the Detroit Red Wings came up short of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their 86 points put them five points out of the wild card a year after they lost the tiebreaker to the Washington Capitals for the final wild card spot. They’ve been close to getting back, but close isn’t good enough and a midseason slump last year cost Derek Lalonde his job as head coach and ushered in Todd McLellan who helped turn things around for a spell. While Detroit was painfully average at five-on-five, they again had one of the top power plays in the league. They had the fourth best team at the man advantage scoring 27 percent of the time. However, they had the league’s worst penalty kill at 70.1 percent. What McLellan can do with a full offseason and training camp will be curious to see because the team performed much better under him in the second half of the year, but as we’ve seen in his last few stops around the league recently, his demanding nature can wear teams down.

What’s Changed?

Goaltending has been a problem in Detroit for the past few years, and they made sure to address it this summer by adding John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks. The longtime Ducks No. 1 will look to be Detroit’s saviour in net and, when healthy, he’s proven to be a top-flight netminder. He ceded the No. 1 job in Anaheim last year to Lukas Dostal, but in 29 games he went 11-11-2 with a .912 save percentage. In his career he’s 204-217-63 with a .910 save percentage and 24 shutouts. The Red Wings haven’t had a goalie this accomplished since Jimmy Howard was their No. 1. In free agency, they added veteran depth with James van Riemsdyk up front and Travis Hamonic on defence for one year each. Mason Appleton signed for two years, $5.8 million. Vladimir Tarasenko was sent to Minnesota for future considerations after he struggled and wasn’t happy in Detroit last season.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Red Wings can mimic what division rivals Ottawa and Montreal did last year and took a rocket ride on the backs of their young stars to make the playoffs, that would have everyone in Detroit doing cartwheels. Led by Dylan Larkin and with emerging stars like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, it feels like the Red Wings are right there to be a playoff team. Having Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane helping Detroit’s power play fill the net is huge, and the addition of Gibson ideally quiets everything else down in goal. Detroit’s defence stands out as a weak point, however, as Seider must be and do everything for them. So far, he’s been able to shoulder that load and will need to keep it up for them to crack through to the playoffs.

What Could Go Wrong?

Slumps crushed non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference last year (just ask Buffalo and Columbus) and any prolonged period of losing means giving up points and ground to the competition. Detroit has a lot of young parts but is a very veteran group. That age can come with the hazards of injuries and dips in performance. For as much as Gibson is a savior for them in goal, his injury history is something that looms over what they can do. Having Cam Talbot as an experienced backup is a huge bonus, but when he was given a heavier workload last season, injuries and performance got in the way. General Manager Steve Yzerman needs all of his moves to come up as hits or else.

Top Breakout Candidate

If there’s a player to keep an eye out for it in Detroit, forward Marco Kasper is the one. The Red Wings’ first-round pick from 2022 had an outstanding rookie season with 19 goals and 18 assists in 77 games. He may not have been expected to carry that kind of load for them when camp opened last year, but his play forced the issue. Now Kasper is slated to be the No. 2 center behind Dylan Larkin and that added depth up the middle suddenly has Detroit feeling very good about the position and for good reason. Kasper’s skill set is outstanding and his creativity with the puck makes him dangerous in the offensive zone.

FORWARDS

Lucas Raymond

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	56	84	1.02

After a stereotypically down sophomore season, Lucas Raymond rebounded from it in a massive way the past two seasons and took things to an even higher-level last year. Raymond led the Red Wings in scoring with 80 points including 27 goals. His playmaking was outstanding both at even strength and on the power play. He led the team with 53 assists including 29 with the man advantage. Although Raymond had 31 goals two seasons ago, it’s helping his teammates score goals where he’s able to do even more damage. Whether it means he’s feeding Dylan Larkin or finding Alex DeBrincat or Patrick Kane to score, that he can finish plays himself as well adds to the danger he provides. It's been impressive to see Raymond’s game take steps forward since his tough second season in 2022-2023. Given some of the struggles the Red Wings had in general, it would’ve been easy enough for a young player to continue to struggle with them. Instead, we’ve seen Raymond develop a bit of an edge to his game and not allow others to push him around. That added confidence has allowed his game to further flourish and grow alongside his veteran teammates.

Dylan Larkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	44	76	0.93

It’s a shame the Detroit Red Wings haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 because watching Dylan Larkin play and perform with the kind of consistency he does only makes us wonder how good he’d be with the stakes being higher. We got a taste of that in the Four Nations Face-Off when he played for the United States, but with the heart and soul he puts into his play for Detroit, it’s tough to see his efforts not extend to the postseason. The Red Wings captain had 30 goals for the fourth straight season and finished with 70 points, tied for second with Alex DeBrincat behind Lucas Raymond for the team lead. Incredibly, the 29-year-old center is headed into his 11th season with Detroit and with the kind of consistent production he’s provided them over the years, having him help bring Raymond into stardom on his wing does wonders for their success. Whether he has DeBrincat or Patrick Kane on the right side works well for them to provide a top line that can do damage against every team in the league. Larkin was a big-time player on the power play as he tied with DeBrincat for the team lead with 13 power play goals. Oddly enough, he was fourth in power play points behind his linemates on the first unit Raymond, Kane, and DeBrincat and just ahead of Moritz Seider. He’s doing his part to lead them, but management just needs to give them more depth to get them back to the playoffs.

Alex DeBrincat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	40	37	77	0.94

In the two seasons since being acquired from Ottawa, Alex DeBrincat has made the Red Wings’ investment in him look like a very smart one. DeBrincat led the Red Wings in goals with 39 last season and came within two of tying his career-high of 41, something he did twice while with the Chicago Blackhawks. He had 70 points and finished tied for second on Detroit in scoring with Dylan Larkin behind sometimes linemate Lucas Raymond. Where DeBrincat proved to be dangerous was part of the Red Wings’ wicked power play attack in which he tied with Dylan Larkin with 13 goals. Whether it’s acting as a sniper or a goal mouth threat, success was easy enough to be found for the diminutive offensive dynamo. Over his two seasons with Detroit. DeBrincat has 66 goals and 137 points. Bringing him back home to Michigan has been a great move for GM Steve Yzerman and the way he fits in with their top attackers has made it a home run move. It’s difficult to ask for more from DeBrincat in the years to come, especially after how well he performed last season, but Detroit does need a little extra from everyone. That said, if he repeats what he did last season it sets the Red Wings up well by having a virtual 40-goal scorer built right in.

Patrick Kane

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	20	35	55	0.79

It might be the norm for fans online to highlight the defensive shortcomings in Patrick Kane’s game but looking past that to what he’s still accomplishing offensively as he turns 36 years old is reason enough to be appreciative of his play. Kane had 59 points for Detroit last season, 29 of which came on the power play. His 59 points and 21 goals were fourth most on the Red Wings last season and he was part of a top power play unit there that was fourth best in the NHL. Kane’s 12 power play goals put him one behind both Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat who each had 13. In two seasons with Detroit, Kane’s scored 41 goals in 122 games and put up 106 points. For Kane in his prime, those were single-season-type numbers, but now, after having hip surgery two years ago and being north of 35, he’s been a solid performer, especially on the power play. He’ll begin this season just eight goals shy of 500 for his career, a mark only 48 players in league history have accomplished. With Toronto’s John Tavares two goals ahead of him, it’ll be a race between them to see who can hit the mark first. In the long run, Kane hopes to get Detroit back to the postseason for the first time since 2016. Kane himself has only been to the playoffs twice in the past eight seasons.

Marco Kasper

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	30	58	0.72

When the Red Wings drafted Marco Kasper eighth overall in 2022, their excitement in doing so had to be immense. He came with a sky-high skill set, tremendous offensive instincts and outstanding skating ability. Upon his arrival into the NHL full-time last season, it became apparent as the season rolled on that they landed a player that could be a fixture there for some time. Kasper put up 19 goals and 18 assists (37 points) in 77 games last season and ascended the lineup after he was eased into action early in the season. When he eventually found his way into the top half of the forward group, it proved to be a fortuitous decision because of the creativity he injected into any line he played with. Even with his somewhat tempered usage, he had the opportunity to work on lines with all of the Red Wings’ top players. Call it on-the-job learning if you’d like, but what it did was help the team figure out what types of players he blended best. As he heads into his sophomore season, the hope is he can avoid the struggles usually associated with that. Whoever Kasper lines up with this season, he’ll have the benefit of having a strong first season to show him the way and, ideally, prior experience playing alongside his wingers to hit the ground running.

Jonatan Berggren

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	17	32	0.42

Hopes have been high in Detroit for Jonatan Berggren. When they selected him in the second round of the 2018 draft, they knew they were getting a player out of Sweden who could fill the net there. While he’s been able to do the same whenever he’s been in the AHL, doing so at the NHL level has been a bit more difficult. Last season with Detroit, Berggren had 12 goals and 12 assists in 75 games. What stood out more about Berggren’s run last season was his role, as he averaged just under 13 minutes of ice time per game. Playing on the third or fourth line doesn’t exactly lend itself to producing big numbers or being asked to play a role in which offense will be stressed. That wasn’t quite the case last season as he played a bit less than half of his five-on-five minutes with Vladimir Tarasenko and J.T. Compher. While Compher matches up well defensively, Tarasenko is much more capable offensively. Berggren possesses a lot of skill and ability and after he put up 15 goals in his rookie season in 2022-2023, the thought was he was poised to breakout as their next big offensive weapon. But his second season did not go well, and he spent most of that year scoring in the AHL. If he’s going to be a bigger part of this team, he’ll need to fight his way into a top six or nine role to do so or become a stronger defensive forward and the time to do it is right now.

Andrew Copp

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	9	15	24	0.32

No one’s seen their role change more the past few seasons in Detroit than Andrew Copp. When the Red Wings signed him as a free agent in 2022 after he had a 21-goal, 53-point season split between the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers, the idea was he’d slot in as their defensive-minded but offensively capable number two center, and they’d roll from there. When Copp posted nine goals and 33 assists in his first season with Detroit, however, it was clear their confidence things would work out was shaken because J.T. Compher was signed after that season and took over that role. Since then, he’s been steady in a slightly lesser position down in the lineup, although a pectoral injury ended his season in late February and he was held to 56 games. With Marco Kasper’s rise and hopeful improvement as well as Compher’s established role on the team, the likelihood of Copp anchoring the fourth line would seem high. Detroit is deeper on the wings with the additions of James van Riemsdyk and Mason Appleton and if Copp is holding down a line lower in the lineup that should benefit them well in matchups because he should ideally be better than other teams’ third- or fourth-line centers.

J.T. Compher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	13	19	32	0.41

Two years ago, when Detroit signed J.T. Compher to a five-year, $25.5 million deal, the idea for him was to lock-in as their number two center behind Dylan Larkin. Compher could score and defend well enough to provide a bit of a change-up in how to handle matchups and when it came to blending lines. After all, he just came off a career-high 52-point season. He followed it up with 48 points in his first season with the Red Wings and it seemed like things would work out appropriately. Last season, however, Compher’s stats fell more in line with what we’ve seen from him before in Colorado. He had 11 goals and finished with 32 points and averaged 16:41 time on-ice per game. Even though his ice time was down, he still played a vital all-around role for Detroit and was part of their power play and penalty kill units. For most of the season, Compher centered a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jonatan Berggren but also worked a fair bit with Patrick Kane on the wing as well. It’s a compliment to him that he plays up in the lineup with offensively talented guys like Tarasenko and Kane but also can hold his own on the penalty kill as well. That said, if he’s lining up with Kane you’d like to see better offensive numbers. Now with young rising star Marco Kasper becoming more of an offensive threat, there’s a possibility we see Compher playing a role that leans more towards defending than attacking under coach Todd McLellan.

James van Riemsdyk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	15	22	37	0.54

The Red Wings needed veteran help down in the lineup and landed 36-year-old James van Riemsdyk to do just that. As a big player with good hands and positioning around the net, he’s able cause issues around the net cleaning up loose pucks and taking away goaltenders’ eyes. Last season with Columbus, van Riemsdyk had 16 goals and 20 assists (36 points) and helped balance out the latter part of the Blue Jackets lineup. Throughout his career, he’s been known for his ability to score around the goal and in the slot when given quality looks. With how good he is handling the puck down low, he provides a ton of value in his own zone and very well may play on the Red Wings’ second power play unit. Van Riemsdyk teamed up often with younger players like Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli in Columbus and did so in Boston the year before with Trent Frederic and Morgan Geekie to give them a veteran to lean on and learn from. That kind of role might be recreated with Detroit with guys like Marco Kasper and Jonatan Berggren. Overall, the past five or six years have seen van Riemsdyk become a steady 35-to-40 point player with anywhere from 15-to-20 goals a year. The Red Wings hope that trend continues, and he can help guide their younger players.

DEFENCE

Moritz Seider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	44	56	0.68

Defensemen are traditionally the workhorses of every NHL team, but in Moritz Seider’s case he was that and then some. Seider was Detroit’s No. 1 defenseman in every way last season. He played the most minutes, had the most goals, assists and points, and was their exclusive power play quarterback. Red Wings defensemen had 26 points on the power play and Seider was responsible for 24 of them. He had four out of five goals from blue liners with the man advantage as well. Simply put, he was brilliant. Because of his heavy all-around usage, Seider’s advanced stats were basically break-even when it came to shot attempts and scoring chances but considering what he generated for Detroit in all situations, it’s hard to argue with his value to them. What would do the Red Wings a lot of good is to have someone, anyone, to do some of the things that Seider can do reasonably well. As a No. 1 defenseman he’s going to shoulder most of the responsibilities to begin with, but a lot is demanded of him the way things are. Fortunately, he’s been able to handle it with aplomb. Seider played more than half of his minutes at five-on-five with defensive defenseman Ben Chiarot which allowed Seider to have more freedom to join the attack in the offensive zone, but overall, that pairing struggled preventing attempts. Most of the rest of his ice time was spent with Simon Edvinsson and that pairing saw shot numbers improve greatly. If that pairing is reunited it could be beneficial to both.

Simon Edvinsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	8	28	36	0.44

Last season was Simon Edvinsson’s first full one in the NHL and he was able to make enough of an impression to earn a larger role moving ahead into this season. Edvinsson had seven goals and 24 assists in 78 games with the Red Wings and averaged 21:07 time on-ice. The sizable uptick in his playing time is due in part to being paired with No. 1 defender Moritz Seider for roughly half of his minutes played at five-on-five. The other half of his playing time was spent with rookie Albert Johansson where those two played more or less as Detroit’s number two pairing. Edvinsson, the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft, stands at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds and while he casts an imposing figure, his game is better built around his ability to move the puck, and he has surprising elusiveness while carrying it. A defender his size makes many believe he’ll throw his body around to make plays, but that’s not exactly the case. While he gets in the way of shots in the defensive zone, playing physically is not his main objective. The points he generated last season show that he could be effective in being part of a second wave of attack from the blue line and give Seider proper backup in handling that role.

Erik Gustafsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	1	17	18	0.26

Entering his second season with the Red Wings, Erik Gustafsson looks to continue in his role supplying puck support in helping the team escape their own end and generating more of an attack up the ice. Last season, Gustafsson posted two goals and 16 assists in 60 games while averaging 16:19 in ice time. That kind of usage put him solidly in a third pairing role and he played more than 80 percent of his five-on-five ice time with Justin Holl. A broken foot ended his season in late March. Known always more for being an offensive defenseman, Gustafsson handled that role well and was a positive influence in generating more shot attempts than allowed while he was on the ice and the Red Wings scoring chance quality was greater than they gave up when he was out there as well. In his kind of position on the third pairing, that’s all you can ask for along with limiting goals allowed. Unfortunately, Gustafsson’s minus-19 plus-minus rating was the lowest on the team. He’ll be expected to play a similar role again this season and whether he reunites with Holl or teams up with summer signee Jacob Bernard-Docker, the third pair would seem to be squared away.

Ben Chiarot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	4	12	16	0.21

There may be no more fascinating player in Detroit than Ben Chiarot and it’s for a host of reasons. Chiarot is a straightforward defensive defenseman. He plays physical all over the ice, ties up pucks in the corners, battles in front of the net and blocks shots. Relying on him for big offense isn’t something that will work out, but if there’s a guy you need to do the dirty work in the defensive end of the ice, that’s what he’ll do. Last season, Chiarot had four goals and nine assists in 81 games. The numbers that matter more for him, however, were the 142 blocked shots and 127 hits delivered while averaging 21:14 in ice time. He spent most of last season partnered with Moritz Seider on the Red Wings’ top pairing with more than 800 minutes together at five-on-five. When he wasn’t with Seider he worked with Jeff Petry and that duo struggled to prevent shot attempts and scoring chances greatly. Whether Chiarot returns next to Seider or not could be a big factor in how well (or not) the Red Wings can have more success. Chiarot is entering the final year of his contract in Detroit and while he’s been a good soldier throughout his time there, the reliance they’ve had on him to play big minutes and key situations was controversial in its own way. That said, Detroit has had many needs as they’ve attempted to emerge from their rebuild and return to the postseason.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
49	22	19	5	3	.905	2.68

Maybe John Gibson isn't a star starter capable of 60-70 games a season any longer, but the 31-year-old former Anaheim backstop proved last season - when his heir apparent Lukas Dostal embraced the bulk of the starts for the year - that he's still capable of putting together some great performances when he's not being asked to do too much too often. That makes him a potentially great fit for the still-retooling Detroit Red Wings, who were just a few wins shy of being a Wild Card last year. He'll join a returning Cam Talbot, who made it clear when he joined Detroit that he was looking for the opportunity to stay in one place for a bit - and with a perfectly acceptable year under his belt, he should make a strong pairing with Gibson to challenge in a tumultuous Atlantic.

Gibson obviously isn't a long-term answer for the Red Wings, but he's a great asset for the next few years - particularly given that his preferred style of play, which emphasizes a more conservative approach that forces shooters to show their hand before he makes a move, shares a number of traits with prospect Sebastian Cossa's own brand of goaltending. This provides a stylistic mentor for Cossa, a tandem partner for Talbot, and some security for Gibson as he finishes out his contract and considers his next move.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Avalanche and Hurricanes make blockbuster deal, Flames and Flyers swing four-player swap, the Islanders renovate their blueline, McTavish, Smith, and Slafkovsky are some young forwards picking up steam and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 31 Jan 2025 13:30:21 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 28: Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing Mikko Rantanen (96) in action prior to the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers on January 28, 2025 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Avalanche and Hurricanes made a blockbuster deal, the Flames and Flyers swing a four-player swap, the Islanders renovate their blueline, and Mason McTavish, Will Smith, and Juraj Slafkovsky are some young forwards picking up steam and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 The Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche made a massive trade last week, a rare in-season move involving star players. The Hurricanes landed Mikko Rantanen from the Avalanche and Taylor Hall from the Blackhawks in the three-team deal. Rantanen is one of the league’s premier forwards and since the 2020-2021 season, he has averaged 1.27 points per game, ranking seventh in the league. In his first three games with Carolina, Rantanen has a goal and an assist, but also has 13 shots on goal despite seeing his average time on ice drop to 19:06 per game after averaging 22:30 per game in Colorado. Hall’s ice time was reduced in Chicago this season but his 1.88 points per 60 minutes ranked second on the Blackhawks among forwards to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes (behind Ryan Donato). So, while Rantanen might play less after joining a team with Carolina’s depth of talent, Hall might actually find his way to more ice time with the Hurricanes.

#2 Colorado acquired right winger Martin Necas and centre Jack Drury from Carolina. Necas had 55 points in 49 games with Carolina before getting traded and he has put up four assists in three games. The Avalanche have also taken to giving Necas the same kind of role that Rantanen held, so Necas has averaged 23:08 of ice time per game in his first three games for the Avs after playing 18:05 per game in Carolina. Drury is more of a depth option, though he has scored two goals in his first three games for Colorado.

#3 The Calgary Flames and Philadelphia Flyers are both in the hunt for playoff spots and the teams swapped players Thursday. Calgary acquired winger Joel Farabee and centre Morgan Frost, sending wingers Andrei Kuzmenko and Jakob Pelletier, along with a couple of draft picks, to Philadelphia. Farabee is a solid complementary winger who scored a career-high 50 points (22 G, 28 A) last season, but has just 19 points (8 G, 11 A) through 50 games this season. He could use the fresh start. Frost has had a bit of a tumultuous run in Philadelphia, especially with John Tortorella as head coach. Frost is a talented player but had one assist and seven shots on goal in his last seven games with the Flyers.

#4 Kuzmenko is a 28-year-old winger who tallied 39 goals and 74 points for Vancouver in 2022-2023, his first season in the NHL, but he has just four goals and 15 points in 37 games this season. He did cross paths with Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov back in the KHL, as Kuzmenko was the leading scorer for SKA St. Petersburg in 2022-2023 when Michkov was just getting his feet wet with that team in the KHL. Perhaps Kuzmenko can help shake Michkov from the slump that has seen him produce just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past 24 games. Pelletier was a first-round pick in 2019, but it has taken a while for him to show that he belongs in the NHL. He did have six points (3 G, 3 A) in his last nine games for the Flames and the small skilled winger can hope to secure more consistent playing time in Philadelphia.

#5 Injuries have forced the New York Islanders to address their blueline and they have signed Tony DeAngelo, who was playing in the KHL, and acquired Scott Perunovich in a trade with the St. Louis Blues. DeAngelo had 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 34 games for St. Petersburg in the KHL but still fell out of favor. He has one assist in three games for the Islanders but has averaged more than 25 minutes of ice time per game and is quarterbacking the Islanders top power play unit. Perunovich has recorded an assist in both of his first two games for the Islanders.

#6 Anahiem Ducks centre Mason McTavish started relatively slowly this season, with 19 points (6 G, 13 A) through 40 games. He does have seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past five games, however, so it’s worth keeping tabs on the 22-year-old. He is skating with Cutter Gauthier and Robby Fabbri at even strength, but McTavish is also getting first-unit power play time.

#7 San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith has taken some time to find his groove during his first NHL campaign, but it looks like the fourth pick in the 2023 Draft is getting comfortable. He is riding a six-game point streak, during which he has amassed seven points (2 G, 5 A) and is skating on a line with veteran Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund. Granlund has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past six games, and with 46 points on the season, he looks like a good bet to hit the 60-point plateau for the fifth time in his career.

#8 There have been some uneven moments in the development path for Montreal Canadiens winger Juraj Slafkovsky, the first pick in the 2022 Draft. Despite enjoying great success with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield last season, Slafkovsky has been moved down the depth chart at times this season and he scored four goals (plus 19 assists) in the first 40 games of the season. Since then, Slafkovsky has six points (4 G, 2 A) in eight games and looks a lot more like the power forward who finished last season with 35 points (16 G, 19 A) in his last 40 games.

#9 When the Nashville Predators struggled early in the season, there was concern that centre Tommy Novak wasn’t up to the task of providing much-needed secondary scoring, and he managed just nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his first 35 games. After that inauspicious start to the season, Novak has contributed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past five games, and is having some success skating with rookies Fedor Svechkov and Zachary L’Heureux.

#10 Buffalo Sabres left winger JJ Peterka enjoyed a terrific start to the season and then went through a slump in late November and early December, but he has rebounded with 21 points (6 G, 15 A) in his past 20 games, highlighted by his three-goal, one-assist performance in Tuesday’s win over Buffalo. More recently, the Sabres have been running Peterka on a line with rookie Jiri Kulich at centre and Tage Thompson on right wing. Kulich has nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his past 12 games. Thompson, who is more widely rostered than his linemates, has 26 points (14 G, 12 A) in his past 26 games.

#11 Marco Kasper was the eighth pick in the 2022 Draft by the Detroit Red Wings and he was offering an unremarkable rookie season, with seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his first 35 games. Moving up the depth chart has done wonders for the young skilled winger, and he has put up 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 11 games. With Patrick Kane injured, Kasper is skating on the Red Wings’ top line, with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, as well as playing on Detroit’s first power play unit. Given their success, the trio might need to stay together even when Kane returns.

#12 The Toronto Maple Leafs do not get great production out of their defencemen, as Morgan Rielly is Toronto’s highest scoring blueliner with 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 51 games. Just behind him, though, is veteran Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games, giving him 21 points for the season. Just as importantly, Ekman-Larsson is averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch. The Maple Leafs run five forwards on their top power play unit, with Rielly and Ekman-Larsson on the second unit.

#13 Chicago Blackhawks rookie Frank Nazar was the 13th pick in the 2022 Draft and was tearing up the AHL this season with 24 points (11 G, 13 A) in 21 games and when the Blackhawks made a coaching change, they promoted Nazar shortly thereafter. While he did not have immediate success, there have been signs of progress. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past eight games and is now skating on Connor Bedard’s wing on Chicago’s top line.

#14 Seattle Kraken winger Jared McCann has been one their most productive players since the expansion draft, scoring 110 goals and 221 points to lead the franchise. While McCann has been more of a goal scorer as he has emerged as a legitimate offensive threat, he has turned playmaker lately. In his past 13 games, McCann has 12 points (1 G, 11 A) and 17 shots on goal. That low shot total needs to improve because while McCann is not usually a high-volume shooter, 1.3 shots on goal per game is not the stuff of consistent top line scorers.

#15 As the Carolina Hurricanes appear to have pushed their chips all in for this season, there is an opportunity for centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi to fulfill a supporting role. Carolina’s addition of Taylor Hall offers the possibility that Kotkaniemi could have more skill on his wings and Kotkaniemi has produced six points (4 G, 2 A) in his past six games. After scoring 27 points in 79 games last season, Kotkaniemi has already chipped in 25 points (10 G, 15 A) in 52 games this season, so he is developing, even if it might be at a slower pace than the ‘Canes might have initially hoped.

#16 Mammoth Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas is enjoying a breakthrough season and is thriving with a six-game point streak, during which he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal. Protas has not been a huge shot generator, so he has been dependent on a shooting percentage of 23.3 percent to score 21 goals in 51 games. His 20 even-strength goals is tied for fifth in the league, behind only Leon Draisaitl (26), Mark Scheifele (22), William Nylander (22), and Tage Thompson (21).

#17 Los Angeles Kings netminder Darcy Kuemper has enjoyed some excellent seasons in his career but he had injury problems when he was with Washington last season, and it was hard to know whether he would be able to bounce back as a 34-year-old goaltender. Saskatoon native Kuemper has been excellent for the Kings, and since the calendar turned to 2025, he has a .938 save percentage in 10 games. Kuemper has 9.65 goals saved above expected this season, which ranks 10th in the NHL, a level of play that the Kings did not have much right to expect.

#18 The Washington Capitals started the season with a goaltending tandem of Charles Lindgren and Logan Thompson and that duo has helped the Capitals to the league’s best record. While there was an even split in the crease for a good portion of the season, Lindgren missed some time with injury, and it allowed Thompson to emerge as the No. 1 option between the pipes for Washington. In his past dozen starts, Thompson has a record of 11-0-1 while posting a .949 save percentage. He earned a six-year, $35.1 million contract extension, nice work for the former USports goaltender.

#19 Veteran Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson is getting a steady diet of starts in the Anaheim net, perhaps showcasing him for a potential trade. Lukas Dostal has played well, establishing himself as the Ducks’ goaltender of the future, and possibly the present, but in his past 11 appearances, Gibson has a .922 save percentage. That kind of performance should help to make Gibson more appealing to a playoff contender that is looking for an upgrade in goal and a move to a team that is more likely to win would certainly improve Gibson’s fantasy value.

#20 Dallas Stars standout defenceman Miro Heiskanen is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury, suffered following an unusual hit from Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone. Heiskanen will miss the 4 Nations Face-Off, and his absence from the Stars lineup will be every bit as challenging as it will be for Team Finland to be without the rock steady blueliner. With Heiskanen out, Thomas Harley should see more time on the power play. Only three of Harley’s 23 points this season have come via the man advantage.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Zegras scoring again, Sharangovich finding his form, Valeri Nichushkin is a difference maker again, a closer look at some of the top rookies, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 30 Nov 2024 15:58:22 +0000

Calgary Flames center Yegor Sharangovich (17) (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Trevor Zegras is scoring again, Yegor Sharangovich is finding his form, Valeri Nichushkin is a difference maker again, a closer look at some of the top rookies, and much more!

#1 Anaheim Ducks centre Trevor Zegras had two 60-point seasons to his credit before managing just 15 points in 31 games last season when his campaign was shortened by injuries including a broken ankle. It wasn’t getting any better early in 2024-2025 either, as Zegras had just three points (1 G, 2 A) through his first 15 games. There have been some recent signs of progress, however, as Zegras has produced seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in the past six games. It is still ridiculous that he is skating at centre while winning 39.4 percent of his faceoffs, but if that is the best spot for his playmaking ability to shine, then that is what the Ducks need to do. With Leo Carlsson suffering an upper-body injury earlier this week, the Ducks need Zegras to continue delivering offensive production.

#2 A pleasant surprise for the Calgary Flames last season when he hit career highs with 31 goals and 59 points after he was acquired from New Jersey, Yegor Sharangovich suffered a lower-body injury in the preseason and started slowly once he rejoined the lineup. He had just two goals in 12 games, despite playing more than 18 minutes per game, but he has picked up five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past four games while recording 20 shots on goal and averaging 19:50 of ice time per game. Of his seven points on the season, four have come via the power play, so there is room for much improvement during five-on-five play.

#3 Returning to the Colorado Avalanche lineup after serving a six-month suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program policy, Valeri Nichushkin had no points and just four shots on goal in his first three games but appears to be back on track. In the past three games, Nichushkin has contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) with eight shots on goal and he played a season-high 22:47 in Wednesday’s win over Vegas.

#4 Anaheim Ducks rookie winger Cutter Gauthier came into the season with some expectations. He was the fifth pick in the 2022 Draft, scored 102 points (54 G, 48 A) in 73 games in two seasons at Boston College and was productive in international play, too, producing 22 points (6 G, 16 A) in 14 games across two years at the World Juniors, plus he had nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 10 games at the 2023 World Championships. All of this indicated that he should be able to contribute quickly in the NHL. He did not record a point in his first five games, but since then has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 38 shots on goal in 16 games. There is also a stat that is quite encouraging about Gauthier’s potential ability to sustain his production. Among players that have played at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (24.82) is the only one with a higher rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes, as Gauthier has 21.95, putting him ahead of Owen Tippett, Brady Tkachuk, and Jeff Skinner.

#5 The leading point producer among rookies is Philadelphia Flyers right winger Matvei Michkov, who has 17 points (8 G, 9 A) in 21 games, despite being a healthy scratch for two games. Michkov has an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.0 percent during five-on-five play, which is quite low for an offensive forward, so he should be able to find his way to more assists, but he is also scoring on 20.0 percent of his shots on goal, so there could very well be some regression on that side of the ledger, too.

#6 The first pick in the 2024 Draft, San Jose Sharks centre Macklin Celebrini may very well be the best of the rookie class. He missed some time due to injury, but he has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) in 13 games. He has 43 shots on goal, and is averaging 20:15 of ice time per game, both of which are great indications that his production should continue at a high level. To temper some of the enthusiasm, it should be noted that Celebrini has an individual points percentage of 100.0 percent and that is not likely to last an entire season. To be fair, however, last season’s top rookie, Conor Bedard finished with a league-leading IPP for 91.89 percent (minimum 1000 five-on-five minutes).

#7 Second-year Anaheim Ducks defenceman Olen Zellweger is on the smaller side of things, listed at 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, but he is such a nimble skater with a flair for offensive production that there is clearly a role for him in the Ducks’ plans. In his past six games, Zellweger has six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal. Zellweger is quarterbacking the Ducks’ top power play unit and four of his 10 points this season have come with the man advantage.

#8 Dallas Stars centre Tyler Seguin is playing 16:15 per game, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season 2010-2011. Nevertheless, he is also averaging better than a point per game with 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 17 games. That is built on some high percentages, including an individual shooting percentage of 19.0 percent and an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.0 percent during five-on-five play. Both of those marks would be career highs for Seguin, so regression is probably coming, but he may offer some short-term value before those percentages start to level out.

#9 The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Utah Hockey Club centre Logan Cooley continues to make progress in his second NHL season. Cooley has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal, while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game, across his past six games. He is playing on Utah’s top power play unit while centering Jack McBain and Dylan Guenther at even strength.

#10 Vancouver Canucks right winger Kiefer Sherwood has climbed the depth chart and is skating on Vancouver’s top line, alongside Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. Sherwood has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past six games and is far and away the leading hitter in the NHL, with 137 hits in 21 games. He is 34 hits ahead of Nashville defenceman Jeremy Lauzon and 43 hits ahead of the second-ranked forward, Brady Tkachuk. Sherwood’s outrageous hit totals give him fantasy value anyway, but with an increasing offensive role, his appeal is growing by the game.

#11 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere is a power play specialist this season, recording 12 of his 17 points (70.6 percent) this season with the man advantage. The only defenceman in the league with a higher ratio of power play points is Ottawa Senators blueliner Jake Sanderson, who has registered 14 points, with 11 (78.6 percent) on the power play. Among defencemen with at least five power play points, the top five gets rounded out by the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly and Montreal Canadiens’ Mike Matheson, who both have seven of 13 points on the power play, as well as Nashville Predators captain Roman Josi, who has half of his 18 points on the power play.

#12 While Gostisbehere is pumping up his point totals on the power play, his teammate, Dmitry Orlov, is busy getting his production at even strength. Orlov has recorded an assist in six straight games and has zero power play points among his 14 points this season. The highest scoring defencemen who have yet to record a power play point this season: Buffalo’s Owen Power and Vegas’ Alex Pietrangelo, who both have 15 points, one more than Orlov. Buffalo’s Bowen Byram has 13 and three defencemen – St. Louis’ Colton Parayko, Minnesota’s Jake Middleton and Colorado’s Samuel Girard – have a dozen points without any on the power play.

#13 Shuffled into the background in Nashville, defenceman Dante Fabbro has thrived since he was acquired off waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets. In seven games since joining Columbus, Fabbro has four points (2 G, 2 A), while playing 21:42 per game as a partner for Zach Werenski. It is probably too soon to go after Fabbro, save for the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping tabs on in his new location.

#14 Veteran Vancouver Canucks winger Conor Garland has been a consistent source of secondary scoring throughout his career, but the Canucks are giving him more responsibility this season and he is responding favorably. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 16 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 21 games, leading Vancouver’s forwards in scoring. Garland is averaging a career-high 19:13 of ice time per game, which includes time on the first power play unit, and he has six power play points this season surpassing last season’s total of five power play points.

#15 Philadelphia Flyers captain Sean Couturier may not get back to the offensive production that marked the peak of his career, but he is still delivering quality results for his team. Couturier has goals in three straight games, recording 10 shots on goal in the process, lifting him to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 22 games, but the Flyers are also controlling 56.9 percent of shot attempts and 55.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Couturier on the ice. He is also winning 58.0 percent of his faceoffs, which ranks 11th among players that have taken at least 200 faceoffs.

#16 The St. Louis Blues reacted quickly when Jim Montgomery was fired by the Boston Bruins, hiring him to replace Drew Bannister. Dylan Holloway and Zack Bolduc have been early beneficiaries of the change. Holloway has produced four points (2 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal while playing 16:55 per game since Montgomery took over on the Blues bench. Bolduc does not play as much, but still scored two goals with seven shots on goal in Montgomery’s first game.

#17 Maybe wins don’t come too easily for Chicago Blackhawks netminder Petr Mrazek, but he is giving his team a chance to win most nights. Mrazek was mediocre in his first handful of starts, posting a save percentage of .887, but since then has a .923 save percentage with a 5-5-1 record in 11 starts. His overall save percentage of .912 ranks 12th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 10 games.

#18 With Lukas Dostal posting a .922 save percentage in 14 games, ranking fourth among goalies to play at least 10 games, it has been challenging for veteran John Gibson to reclaim his role in the crease for the Anaheim Ducks. Gibson has been playing well since returning from injury, though, putting up a 4-0-1 record with a .919 save percentage in five starts. If Gibson is playing at a high level, that could increase his likelihood of finally getting traded and there are teams that might be ready to pull the trigger for a veteran goaltender who could use a fresh start with a team that has better defensive structure.

#19 Speaking of teams that might have goaltending concerns, the Carolina Hurricanes have Pyotr Kochetkov in concussion protocol and Frederik Andersen is out long-term following knee surgery. That leaves Spencer Martin and Yaniv Perets in net for the ‘Canes. Martin has a .856 save percentage in seven games for Carolina this season while Perets has 13 minutes of NHL experience and had a .825 save percentage in three AHL games when he was called up. If Kochetkov recovers quickly, the Hurricanes may be able to survive, because they are the best puck possession team in the league, but if he is out long-term, the Hurricanes may need to look for an external solution to their goaltending problem.

#20 Through 360 games in this season, there is an average of 6.13 goals per game, but there has not been a huge advantage for being the home side, with home teams averaging 3.125 goals per game while road teams have 3.008. For fantasy managers, particularly those making daily roster decisions, this suggests not to be overly discouraged if a player happens to be on the road, because it should not have a significant effect on a player’s likely production.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: Training Camp Updates

Scott Cullen — Tue, 01 Oct 2024 19:02:07 +0000

Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

As the NHL season approaches, training camps are in full swing and preseason action is underway. That means that changes are already taking place with injuries and opportunities changing every day.

Doughty suffers broken ankle

Los Angeles Kings defenceman Drew Doughty suffered a broken ankle that leaves him out month-to-month. That is a huge loss for the Kings but, it means new opportunities because someone will have to fill the void that is created by Doughty’s injury. Brandt Clarke was already poised to play a regular role on the Kings blueline but could step into a role on the Kings’ first power play unit. Clarke has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 25 career games and half of those points have come with the man advantage. If not Clarke, Jordan Spence could step up, too. He had 24 points (2 G, 22 A) in 71 games last season, with six points on the power play. Clarke has the better pedigree. He was selected eighth overall in the 2021 Draft and produced 46 points (10 G, 36 A) in 50 games in the AHL last season.

Appendicitis knocks out Gibson

Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson underwent emergency surgery for an appendectomy and that will keep him out for 3-6 weeks. If he only missed three weeks, that will not cost him too many starts, but if it’s closer to the other end of the spectrum, there will be more games for Lukas Dostal. While Dostal appeared in 44 games for the Ducks last season, he managed just 13 wins and had a .902 save percentage, which is not enough to believe that he is going to have significant fantasy value this season.

Boqvist on Panthers’ top power play

With Brandon Montour signing in Seattle, it appears that Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist is getting a look as the quarterback on Florida’s No. 1 power play unit. He has never played more than 52 games in an NHL season and has 85 points (23 G. 62 A) in 209 games, with 29 of those points coming on the power play. However, there are 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes across the past three seasons and Boqvist ranks 50th with 3.32 points per 60 minutes and 55th with 4.88 on-ice GF/60. To his slight credit, he ranks 41st with 6.84 xGF/60 in those situations. If Boqvist ultimately can’t handle the role, Aaron Ekblad could be lurking as a possible quarterback on PP1.

Hanifin getting first unit power play time in Vegas

On a team that already boasts Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, it appears that Noah Hanifin is getting an opportunity to skate with the top power play in Vegas. Hanifin recorded 47 points last season, with 13 points on the power play, including five of his 12 points with Vegas after he was acquired from Calgary. While Hanifin ranked fifth with 11.87 shots per 60 minutes during five-on-four play across the past three seasons, he ranked 29th with 4.35 points per 60 minutes. He also ranked 50th with 5.80 on-ice goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is a position of relative strength for the Golden Knights, so if Hanifin isn’t getting the job done on the first power play, they have two more options who have experienced some success in that role.

Cooley and Guenther could offer big fantasy value

The Utah Hockey Club has some promise heading into the season, not the least of which is related to a couple of young forwards who finished hot last season and could be poised for big things in 2024-2025. Right winger Dylan Guenther just signed an eight-year contract extension for more than $57 million, even though he has played just 78 NHL games, but the ninth pick in the 2021 Draft has an awe-inspiring shot and finished last season with 17 points (9 G, 8 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Pair Guenther with Logan Cooley, the third pick in the 2022 Draft, who finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting last season and he had 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in his last 16 games. Two young players finishing with that kind of production offers temptation for what they might be able to accomplish this season. The answer could be: more than you think.

Luke Hughes recovering from shoulder injury

Devils defenceman Luke Hughes, who finished third in Norris Trophy voting last season, could miss the first month of the regular season due to a shoulder injury suffered in offseason training. Hughes’ injury opens the door for Simon Nemec, another highly drafted defenceman going into his second NHL season, to take on a bigger role including time on the Devils’ second power play unit. Nemec had 19 points (3 G, 16 A) in 60 games as a rookie, but could certainly improve on that if he can secure regular time with the man advantage.

Tatar getting a good opportunity in New Jersey

The last time that Tomas Tatar was skating for the New Jersey Devils, he produced 20 goals and 48 points during the 2022-2023 season. Last season, between Colorado and Seattle, Tatar managed just 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 70 games. He played 12:27 per game, his lowest average since 2012-2013. But right now it looks like Tatar has a chance to skate on the Devils’ second line, with Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer, which would put Tatar much more in line to produce 40-plus points again.

Willy Styles to center

Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander is getting a training camp look at centre ice, which does shuffle up the forward lines, sending John Tavares to the third line. Nylander at center allows the Leafs to play Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok on his wings, while Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann can skate on Tavares’ wings, giving Toronto better scoring depth. Of course, Max Pacioretty would seem like a logical fit in a middle six role following his tryout, so Jarnkrok or McMann would seem like candidates to move down the depth chart, unless Robertson is moved out.

Michkov a Calder favorite?

Philadelphia Flyers rookie right winger Matvei Michkov is either the favorite or co-favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in the NHL. The seventh pick in the 2023 Draft, Michkov had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 47 KHL games last season. He is looking at the opportunity to start the season on the Flyers’ second line while receiving first unit power play time. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) through his first two preseason games, which has done nothing to turn down the hype machine but maybe it’s deserved.

Beauviller getting a chance in Pittsburgh

After managing a career-low five goals and 17 points for Vancouver and Nashville last season, Anthony Beauvillier is the epitome of a buy-low performer. He is also looking at the potential opportunity to skate on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby. It can be a revolving door on Crosby’s wing, but the opportunity to skate with such an elite centre would elevate Beauvillier’s scoring potential, at least making him relevant for fantasy owners. He has never scored more than 40 points in a season, but that career high happened one year before his career low performance.

Montour ahead of Dunn for PP1 in Seattle

The Seattle Kraken appear to be giving free agent acquisition Brandon Montour a shot to quarterback the top power play unit. Across the previous three seasons, among the 57 defencemen to play at least 200 minutes Montour ranked 20th with 4.69 points per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Dunn ranked 33rd with 4.26 points per 60, which is not a dramatic different. When it comes to on-ice goals for per 60 minutes, Montour ranked tenth, with 10.02, while Dunn ranked 47th with 6.16. Since they were operating on different teams, it seems that these numbers would be heavily influenced by the talent around them.

Faulk on PP1 for St. Louis

With Torey Krug likely to miss the season as he deals with a bad ankle, Justin Faulk is getting the opportunity to run the Blues’ top power play unit. Faulk has experience in the role, with 134 of his 426 career points coming with the man advantage. If Faulk can’t guide the unit successfully, Scott Perunovich, Colton Parayko and Philip Broberg could all be viable candidates, too.

Demko remains out for Vancouver

With an uncertain timeline for the return to action of goaltender Thatcher Demko, the Vancouver Canucks have signed Kevin Lankinen, to pair with Artrus Silovs in the crease while they wait. Lankinen has been a quality backup, posting a .912 save percentage in 43 games with Nashville over the past two seasons, but he could be required to handle a larger percentage of the action, at least while Demko is sidelined. Silovs has flashed potential but has started a total of 19 NHL games, nine during the regular season and 10 in the playoffs. He has a .898 save percentage in those games, so the 23-year-old netminder is still a work in progress as he tries to establish himself as a full-time NHLer.

Tarasov getting his shot in Columbus?

With Elvis Merzlikins coming off a terrible season, and big changes in the Blue Jackets organization, it could be time for 25-year-old goaltender Daniil Tarasov to get the starter’s job in Columbus. Tarasov has a .905 save percentage in 45 career games, which is enough to at least consider him in a tandem with Merzlikins, but it would not take much for Tarasov to become the first option for the rebuilding Blue Jackets.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 16:00:04 +0000

_{WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Ducks center Mason McTavish (37) stickhandles during the Anaheim Ducks versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 23, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)}

The rebuilding Ducks weren’t expected to make the playoffs in 2023-24, but there was still some hope that they might at least take a step forward compared to their 2022-23 finish under new bench boss Greg Cronin. Given that they finished the prior campaign with a 23-47-12 record, that couldn’t be a lower bar to exceed, but in the end, they had a similarly dreary showing in 2023-24, finishing at 27-50-5. It didn’t help that Trevor Zegras was limited to 31 contests last season after previously leading the Ducks offensively with 65 points, but even still, it’s hard to blame finishing 30th offensively (2.48 goals per game) and 30th defensively (3.57 goals allowed per game) on some injury issues

WHAT’S CHANGED? Jakob Silfverberg decided to end his NHL playing career, but the Ducks otherwise didn’t lose any major players over the summer. They didn’t make any major acquisitions either, though, with arguably the most noteworthy add being Robby Fabbri, who is projected to serve in a middle-six capacity after being grabbed in a trade with Detroit. However, that’s not to suggest Anaheim’s upcoming roster will be a near carbon copy of its previous one. Cutter Gauthier might make a big impact as a rookie, and we also should see youngsters Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish take steps forward.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? If Gauthier lives up to the hype after scoring 38 goals and 65 points across 41 contests with Boston College last year, and becomes a prominent part of Anaheim’s top six, then that alone would be reason for celebration. Getting to see some measurable progress out of the aforementioned Mintyukov, Carlsson, and McTavish would also be a big deal. Outside of that, a lot of attention will be on 24-year-old goaltender Lukas Dostal, who had some absolutely stunning starts last year, but lacked consistency. If he can find his rhythm this season while the Ducks simultaneously get contributions from that young group, then Anaheim would be an exciting team to watch.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? When you’re a young team relying on prospects, the most obvious potential issue is that they need more time to develop than initially thought. McTavish, for example, made some strides last season, but he didn’t end up having the breakout campaign some hoped for. Anaheim might encounter similar growing pains again. Then there’s the issue of the team’s overall defence. Dostal had two 50-plus save performances last season, which is an amazing accomplishment, but also highlights the defensive shortcomings of those in front of him. Anaheim ranked 30th last year with 3.4 xGA/60. If the Ducks don’t improve meaningfully by that metric, then it's hard to envision them competing for a playoff spot even if everything else goes ideally.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Trading Jamie Drysdale to Philadelphia in January was a difficult decision, but Gauthier could make it worth it. He has the potential to be the full package, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Anaheim use him in a top six capacity this season.

FORWARD

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	31	55	0.70

While Terry had his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 50 points, his production dipped a bit from the previous two seasons. Part of that was a function of a declining shot rate, going from 2.69 shots on goal per game in 2022-2023 to 2.26 shots on goal per game in 2023-2024. He has still matured into a reliable first-line winger, even if not necessarily a star; a reliable contributor at both ends of the rink. Terry’s confidence has grown, and it is reflected in his play and how he has the patience to attack defenders one-on-one and make plays to generate scoring chances. He also plays a game that is not especially physical. Among the 223 forwards that have played at least 200 games in the past three seasons, Terry ranks 222nd (ahead of only Johnny Gaudreau) with 35 hits. Nevertheless, on a team that is depending on elite young talent, a proven performer like Terry is of vital importance to help those players get to the next level in their development. Part of the challenge when forecasting his production in 2024-2025 is that proliferation of young forwards at the top of the depth chart in Anaheim. That does leave some variability but, considering his performance in recent seasons, 25 goals and 60 points remain reasonable objectives.

Trevor Zegras

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	18	28	46	0.58

A broken ankle and lower-body injuries limited Zegras to just 31 games last season and while he managed just 15 points, he did have quality underlying numbers, so he does have a chance to deliver a bounce back season. For one thing, Zegras is a creative playmaker who can make highlight reel plays and there is an audacity to his game that is exciting. The challenge will be to turn his immense puck skills into better on-ice results. Since Zegras has not been able to improve in the faceoff circle, winning 40.6 percent of his draws, it could make sense to shift him to the wing, at least some of the time. That would free him up to focus more on the attack, which is an obvious strength to his game. He already has two seasons with more than 60 points, so he has offensive upside that could really pay off under the right circumstances. The question will be whether he finds those right circumstances in Anaheim next season. The Ducks are improving their depth of talent and there should be enough quality available that Zegras can play a top six role as well as first-unit power play. He had a career low on-ice shooting percentage (7.7 percent) last season, and his shooting percentage of 8.2 percent was down from the previous couple of seasons. If his percentages pick back up, Zegras should be able to once again challenge for 20 goals and 60 points.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	26	52	0.63

A sturdy winger who has always been able to generate shots, Vatrano reached his peak performance level in 2023-2024, setting career highs with 37 goals and 60 points. He also delivered 156 hits, the first season of his career in which he exceeded 100 hits. He added banger league value with a career-high 85 penalty minutes, too. What is wild about Vatrano’s impressive statistical breakout season is that his on-ice results were quite poor. The Ducks controlled 44.1 percent of shot attempts and 45.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play while Vatrano was on the ice. They were outscored 67-47. That was better than his first season in Anaheim but, still, there is a lot of room for improvement in his all-around impact. Vatrano played mostly with Ryan Strome and Mason McTavish, so there is talent around him, but their defensive play needs dramatic improvement if the Ducks are going to be more competitive. Putting aside the team impacts, fantasy managers are going to be interested in Vatrano because of his offensive production, coupled with hits and a strong shot rate as he recorded a career-high 3.32 shots on goal per game last season. It is probably fair not to expect Vatrano to repeat his career-best season, but he could still deliver 25 goals and 45-50 points, along with 100-plus hits.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	20	29	49	0.65

The second overall pick in the 2023 Draft, Carlsson made a smooth transition to the NHL as an 18-year-old centre. The 6-foot-3 pivot plays a game well beyond his years, particularly on the defensive end, where he has an active stick and plays a sound positional game. Carlson’s combination of size and skill offers tantalizing potential. He scored six goals in his first nine games and endured some injuries on his way to finishing with 12 goals and 29 points in 55 games. He missed time with a sprained MCL, a concussion, and another lower-body injury, which obviously didn’t help his development, but he showed well in the games that he played. That is barely scratching the surface of Carlsson’s potential, but it also might take some time for the skilled young forward to reach that potential. Carlsson’s play driving numbers – better than break-even in terms of Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage – while playing more than 18 minutes per game on a team near the bottom of the standings, were very encouraging. He shoots the puck well enough already to score from distance and has soft hands that serve him well when he has the puck in close to the net. These signs suggest that it’s not a reach to expect a significant offensive jump this season. Something along the lines of 20 goals and 50-plus points would be a move in the right direction.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	23	33	56	0.73

The third pick in the 2021 Draft, McTavish continued to make progress in his second NHL season, ultimately finishing with one less point in 16 fewer games than he played in 2022-2023. His 1.65 primary points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranked 81st. Considering that he is 21 years old, this is a strong rate of production. While his possession numbers continue to improve, McTavish is still underwater there, with 45.4 percent Corsi and 46.8 expected goals percentage. A strong and physical forward who can win battles along the boards and use his body to effectively protect the puck, he should be able to improve his shot differentials. Last season, he did miss 18 games with a variety of injuries and while none of them were major, that is going to be something to monitor as his career progresses. When it comes to determining McTavish’s offensive upside in 2024-2025, it will depend on what kind of offensive opportunities are provided to him. On a team that also has Leo Carlsson and Trevor Zegras down the middle of the ice, McTavish is facing competition for prime scoring ice time. Considering where he is in his career, though, there should be more progress, so 20 goals and 50 points are reasonable targets for him this season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	22	28	50	0.63

Coming off career-highs of 27 goals and 64 points in 2022-2023, Killorn cashed in last summer as a free agent after years of being a quality contributor during the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cup runs. The veteran winger was the beneficiary of an unsustainably high shooting percentage that season, though, so he was a natural candidate for regression in his first season with the Ducks. Sure enough, Killorn’s production dropped to 18 goals and 36 points in 63 games while playing a career-high 18:44 per game. That required a rather furious finish, which saw Killorn score 11 goals in his last 24 games. Even in his mid-30s, Killorn was still an effective play driver, his 51 percent Corsi ranking second among Ducks regulars and he was a reliable penalty killer. While his contract may not age well, in the short term, Killorn brings a professionalism and commitment that can help lead the young Ducks in the right direction. At his age, there is a decreasing likelihood that Killorn will bounce back to previous levels of production, so 15-20 goals and a 40-point season is a fair expectation, but some of that will depend on how well the younger players perform. If they are not ready to step into prominent roles, then Killorn could still be needed to score for the Ducks.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	13	28	41	0.50

A veteran forward who can play centre or wing, Strome has put up back-to-back 41-point seasons in his first two years with the Ducks. While he is a capable complementary player at the offensive end, Strome’s defensive play has declined significantly in his first two seasons with the Ducks. Maybe some of that is a function of an inexperienced supporting cast, but the Ducks have been outscored 126-85 with Strome on the ice for five-on-five play across the past two seasons. In those two seasons, the Ducks have managed 43.7 percent of shots attempts and 41.3 percent of expected goals with him on the ice, so his poor results are backed by poor underlying numbers. That’s not going to cut it, especially when he is needed to be a veteran leader for this team. Strome’s ability to play multiple positions does give Anaheim more options when trying to put their lines together, but it would be most helpful if Strome added a dose of reliability wherever he ultimately fits in the lineup. If not, his ice time could continue to decrease. Last season, his ice time fell below 16 minutes per game for the first time since 2018-2019. At this point, with younger players pushing for bigger roles with the Ducks, it’s probably not reasonable to expect Strome to provide much more than the 40 points.

Robby Fabbri

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	17	33	0.44

A veteran forward who has had to overcome three ACL tears to continue his NHL career, Fabbri has skill and is obviously extremely resilient, but injuries have taken a toll on him. Despite tying his career high with 18 goals last season, Fabbri has been dependent on finishing at a high percentage – he had a shooting percentage of 18.9 percent across his last two seasons in Detroit – because he does not generate a lot of shots on goal. On the positive side, Fabbri scored 1.09 goals per 60 minutes last season, which ranked 47th among forwards that played at least 500 minutes. Fabbri’s ice time fell below 13 minutes per game last season, the first time he failed to meet that threshold since 2018-2019. Fabbri has some versatility that allows him to fill a middle six role for Anaheim. He has also been a poor defensive player, so that could potentially pose problems for a Ducks team that does not have an abundance of quality two-way forwards. In any case, Fabbri should be able to contribute secondary scoring as long as he is healthy, but he played 68 games last season and that was his most since playing in 72 games as a rookie, so it’s almost assured that he will miss time. That leaves some variability in expectations but something in the range of 15 goals and 30 points is a fair expectation.

Brett Leason

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	12	24	0.30

Leason is a 6-foot-5 winger who enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2023-2024, scoring 11 goals and 22 points, high-water marks to this point in his career. Leason’s size gives him an edge when it comes to battling for pucks and his ability to chip in offensively made him a valuable depth forward for the Ducks last season. For a player who tends to spend most of his time on the lower end of the depth chart, Leason does have a potent wrist shot, which makes him capable of scoring from distance. If he is going to be something more than a fourth-line player, the next challenge is for him to be able to generate more opportunities to use that shot. Leason’s best stretch came in the second half of the season when, upon returning from an upper-body injury, he tallied nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 14 games while he averaged 14:29 of ice time per game. He could not sustain those numbers over a longer period, and it would be unreasonable to expect that from him, but looking ahead, Leason could still contribute double-digit goals and 20-plus points, with some upward mobility if he manages to climb the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Cam Fowler

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	7	36	43	0.52

A steady veteran who has played 14 seasons in Anaheim, Fowler’s experience and steady hand is of major importance on a Ducks blueline that is developing young talent. Fowler has always been an adept distributor of the puck and has surpassed 30 assists in each of the past three seasons. He has averaged more than 24 minutes of ice time in each of those three seasons and he should remain in that kind of prominent role again. Oddly enough, Fowler led the Ducks in ice time during four-on-five play, even though his results have crashed hard in recent seasons. Across the past three campaigns, there are 113 defencemen that have played at least 300 minutes of four-on-five play and only three have a higher expected goals against and three have a higher goals against per 60 minutes than Fowler. Nevertheless, Fowler is of critical importance on this team, a consistent presence who has been durable, missing a total of seven games across the past four seasons. He is not a strong physical presence, instead relying on strong instincts and hockey IQ to put him in the right position. Considering his role and reliability, Fowler should find himself scoring in the range of 40 points once again.

Pavel Mintyukov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	5	30	35	0.49

The 10th pick in the 2022 Draft, Mintyukov made his NHL debut last season, and it was a strong first season. He showed lots of potential, and it is going to be up to the young blueliner and the Ducks organization to develop him into a bona fide No. 1 defenceman. Mintyukov skates well and is not shy about using that skill to join the attack, entering the offensive zone with confidence. He recorded seven power play points in a 30-game span from November 1 through January 10, but he suffered a separated shoulder and missed more than a month of action and did not record another point with the man advantage for the rest of the season. Even so, Mintyukov averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game after returning from his injury and contributed nine points in 23 games. There were naturally some growing pains in his first NHL season, because he was 19 years old when last season started, and he was playing significant minutes on a team that was among the weakest squads in the league. For a top player like Mintyukov, though, that experience should be valuable, giving him the opportunity to step forwards into an even more significant role in his second season. Certainly, the hope will be that he manages to stay healthier than he did in his rookie campaign and that could reasonably lead to 35-40 points, possibly more if Mintyukov takes over as the quarterback on Anaheim’s top power play unit.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	4	12	16	0.22

Despite missing 16 games last season, Gudas was one of just two defencemen to record at least 150 blocked shots and 200 hits last season (Detroit’s Moritz Seider was the other one). Gudas is a warrior who sacrifices his body for his team and the 34-year-old blueliner has been doing it for quite some time. He joined the Ducks as a free agent last summer and averaged 19:30 of ice time per game, the second highest average of his career, and his highest average time on ice since 2015-2016. Although Gudas has a well-earned reputation for borderline hits, that should not overshadow that he is an excellent defender, who had the lowest on-ice rate of expected goals against (2.28 xGA/60) among Anaheim defenders last season. He is known much more for his play without the puck, but Gudas also contributes at the offensive end, partly because he is ready and willing to fire the puck whenever the opportunity is there for him. Among the eight defensemen that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes for the Ducks last season, Gudas had the highest rate of shot attempts (11.83 iCF/60) and shots on goal (4.38 Shots/60). For fantasy managers, Gudas offers sneaky value because he last reached 20 points in a season in 2018-2019, but he provides hits, blocked shots and even a passable rate of shots on goal that can make him useful. His penalty minute totals make him even more valuable in banger leagues. At this stage of his career, there is little point in expecting a dramatic change, so Gudas should be expected to contribute 15-20 points.

Brian Dumoulin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	14	18	0.22

Moving to Seattle resulted in an odd decrease in ice time, with Dumoulin averaging 17:01 of ice time per game after seven straight seasons averaging more than 20 minutes per game. That should get reversed in Anaheim, where the Ducks can surely use Dumoulin’s reliability on the blueline. He is a two-time Stanley Cup winner who was not merely a passenger on those Penguins teams – he was averaging more than 20 minutes per game on epic playoff runs. It is also unusual that Dumoulin saw this ice time reduced in Seattle because his on-ice results were quite strong, leading Kraken defencemen (minimum 500 five-on-five minutes) in both Corsi (53.9 percent) and expected goals percentage (54.5 percent). That doesn’t seem like a player who should have been playing less! Even at his peak, Dumoulin was never a big scorer, but he did have a career-high 25 points with Pittsburgh in 2022-2023. With a more prominent role on Anaheim’s blueline, Dumoulin should be able to find his way to 20 points, but he has surpassed 125 blocked shots and 100 hits four times each in his career. That kind of production in peripheral statistical categories might make him a worthwhile addition in deep leagues.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
43	16	23	5	0	0.901	3.60

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
39	14	20	4	2	0.904	3.45

The post-John Gibson era in Anaheim is slowly approaching. With just three years left of the albatross eight-year deal that Gibson and the Ducks have been slogging through, and a bright new future with Lukas Dostal sitting front and center, it almost seems like Anaheim might just let the remainder of their veteran star's contract burn itself out at the Honda Center. While it seemed at the start of the 2023 season like Gibson might have been on the upswing, though, only Chicago's Arvid Soderblom served as a greater albatross in net as the year came to a close. While the Ducks continued to struggle with allowing quality shots in the high slot, a full season of both Gibson and Dostal made it painfully apparent that it wasn't just the team struggling - Gibson was struggling with them.

Things look bright for Anaheim with regards to how Dostal handled his first full season as half of an official NHL tandem, so the picture in Southern California isn't as bleak as it has been in recent years. While Dostal struggled almost as much as Gibson with net-front attacks, he was able to clean up the peripheral damage that Gibson had allowed to fester with poor defensive coverage outside the circles. His numbers matched up to a strong ability to stay on-angle and recover in time for rebound attempts in a way that Gibson hasn't been able to in at least a handful of seasons. Things won't truly turn around in net for the Ducks until Gibson's contract has finally reached an end, but the future looks much more promising now than it has since the Gibson-Frederik Andersen era.

FANTASY: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Farabee stepping up for Flyers – Injuries open door to opportunity – Goalies bouncing back – Early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value + much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 19:43:45 +0000

ANAHEIM, CA - NOVEMBER 10: Philadelphia Flyers left wing Joel Farabee (86) with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks played on November 10, 2023 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Joel Farabee is stepping up for the Flyers, injuries open the door for opportunities, goalies bouncing back, and early-season underachievers that might offer potential buy-low value.

#1 Although Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee hit a career high with 39 points (15 G, 24 A) last season, it was widely regarded as a disappointing campaign. He was recovering from disc replacement surgery in his neck and both his shot rate and shooting percentage declined. This season, however, Farabee is a vital part of the Flyers’ ability to exceed expectations. He has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 16 games and all 12 points have come during five-on-five play; his 3.52 points per 60 ranks ninth in the league and while his lack of power play production does put a ceiling on Farabee’s potential production, he has already taken steps forward from last season.

#2 Buffalo Sabres star centre Tage Thompson has been lost for “less than a couple of months” with a wrist injury. His absence will require Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt to anchor the top two centre spots on the Sabres depth chart. Cozens has one assist in his past six games and is averaging less ice time per game than he did last season, so this will provide ample opportunity for him to get back on track. Mittelstadt has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 16 games, though with just 21 shots, he does have room to increase his offensive impact.

#3 The Anaheim Ducks placed centre Trevor Zegras on the injured list with a groin injury and he had just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 12 games when they decided that he needed a break. That theoretically could open the door for more ice time for rookie centre Leo Carlsson, who has eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 11 games, but he’s already averaging 18:18 of ice time per game when he plays, so it is difficult to expect and 18-year-old to get much more ice time. Maybe it’s more reasonable to expect Mason McTavish to take on a little more, as the 20-year-old has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) in 16 games while logging 17:32 of ice time per game.

#4 A neck injury has put Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen on the shelf, creating an opportunity for Valeri Nichushkin to skate with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. MacKinnon has been Nichushkin’s most common linemate this season already, but adding Rantanen does spice things up a bit. Nichushkin has produced five points (4 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past five games.

#5 Florida Panthers defencemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad are both nearing returns to action, on the precipice of making their seasons debuts for last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. The most intriguing effect will likely fall on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the 32-year-old defender whose play has been in decline for several seasons. Given a new lease on life in Florida, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in 16 games, but half of those points have come on the power play and Montour’s return could take away Ekman-Larsson’s top unit power play role.

#6 An upper-body injury has landed Nashville Predators centre Tommy Novak on injured reserve for the next four-to-six weeks. With 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in 14 games, he is ranked third in scoring on the Predators and half of those points have come on the power play. Cody Glass gets first crack at Novak’s ice time, but he had better pick up the pace as he has yet to record a point in seven games this season.

#7 New Jersey Devils centre Jack Hughes appears to be on the verge of returning from his upper-body injury. The Devils’ playmaking centre has 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 10 games, outrageous production and, given the landscape among the league’s top scorers, Hughes has a legitimate case to at least be in the race for the Art Ross Trophy. Michael McLeod, who has three points (1 G, 2 A) in the past five games, is likely to slide back down the depth chart when Hughes is ready to return.

#8 It seems that nearly every week there is some example of how unpredictable goaltending can be from one season to the next, never mind smaller samples like one week to the next or one game to the next. Consider the case of St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, who had a .897 save percentage in 98 games over the previous two seasons. This season, his save percentage is up to XXXX and, at least before the Blues were blown out by the San Jose Sharks Thursday night (in a game started by Joel Hofer), goaltending had been helping the Blues get back to a more competitive level.

#9 Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson was an elite performer early in his career, posting a .921 save percentage from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, but then the burden of playing behind a suspect Ducks defence started to catch up to him and from 2019-2020 through 2022-2023, his save percentage had fallen to .902. This season, however, Gibson has a .927 save percentage in nine starts. With the Ducks more competitive than expected, Gibson is once again a valuable commodity for fantasy managers.

#10 In the previous two seasons, with the Maple Leafs and Blackhawks, Petr Mrazek had a .893 save percentage. In eight games this season, he is rocking a .921 save percentage. The wins don’t come easily in the Windy City, but if Mrazek is going to play at this above-average level, he is going to be fantasy relevant, which was not a widely held expectation for him at the start of the season.

#11 Edmonton Oilers left winger Evander Kane erupted for a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Seattle. Following a slow start, Kane has produced 14 points (7 G, 7 A) and 34 shots on goal in the past 10 games, which puts him up among the top wingers because when the scoring is there, he also generates shots and provides a physical presence (56 hits in 15 games).

#12 Matt Duchene did not record a point in his first four games for the Dallas Stars, which saw him get waived in many fantasy hockey leagues, but the trend has reversed in a hurry. In 10 games since, Duchene has produced 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 25 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment.

#13 Part of Winnipeg’s return in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, Alex Iafallo has been a quality supporting winger for the Jets. He could stand to shoot the puck more, but Iafallo has nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past six games, and he is riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the Jets’ top line as well as holding down a spot on Winnipeg’s top power play unit.

#14 After a brilliant performance at the World Championships, 21-year-old Buffalo Sabres winger J.J. Peterka entered this season with some expectations. He started slowly, but has now delivered nine points (4 G, 5 A) in the past nine games, a sign that he could be ready to make a leap in only his second NHL campaign.

#15 A couple of early AHL call-ups have made an instant impact in the NHL. Calgary’s Connor Zary, a first-round pick in 2020, has six points (3 G, 3 A) in seven games, though he has just one shot on goal in the past three, leaving him with 11 shots on goal in those seven games. That needs to bounce back up for his production to have a higher likelihood of sustainability. Zary and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil have been flanking Nazem Kadri on the Flames’ second line. Toronto’s Nick Robertson is no longer Calder Trophy eligible after various stints with the Maple Leafs in the past three seasons, but the 22-year-old does have four points (2 G, 2 A) in four games since getting promoted from the AHL, where he had 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in nine games. Robertson is skating with Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok in a third line that suddenly has some offensive pop to it.

#16 The leader in expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 50 minutes of ice time) during the month of November is Bruins left winger Brad Marchand (2.09), ahead of Alex Tuch (2.06), Timo Meier (2.04), Connor McMichael (2.02), and Kevin Fiala (2.00). McMichael stands out of that group as he is not nearly as established as an offensive force. With Nicklas Backstrom stepping away from the Capitals, McMichael is looking at a bigger role and has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past four games and could be a buy-low option in deep leagues. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some forwards who have not been generating chances and it is no surprise if fourth liners have a low rate of expected goals, but Alex Newhook (0.19), Kaapo Kakko (0.21), Matthew Poitras (0.33), and Pavel Zacha (0.36) – all of whom have some expectation of offensive production - are among the forwards in the bottom 20 when it comes to individual expected goals in November.

#17 Looking specifically at five-on-four power play situations, which players are being put in position to score with the man advantage? The leader in individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 40 five-on-four minutes this season) is Florida’s Sam Reinhart (4.05), ahead of Joe Pavelski (3.67), Sidney Crosby (3.53), Drake Batherson (3.35), Vincent Trocheck (3.31), and Tommy Novak (3.28).

#18 While there are some players scoring on a ridiculously high percentage of shots, that likely won’t be sustainable – looking at you, Alexis Lafreniere (29.2%) and Brock Boeser (27.1%) – there are players at the other end who are generating shots on goal and not finding the net. Pittsburgh’s Rickard Rakell has zero goals on 40 shots. He has had some seasons in which his shooting percentages are terrible, but zero for forty is a real struggle, especially for a player who is skating on a line with Reilly Smith and Evgeni Malkin, two skilled linemates. Others that might be buy-low considerations with zero goals: Josh Anderson (38 shots) and T.J. Oshie (28 shots).

#19 Spinning this to the players that have underachieved the most relative to their expected goals thus far, Oshie (-5.54) and Anderson (-5.31) have fallen shortest of their expected goals totals, followed by Matthew Tkachuk (-5.00), Anders Lee (-4.64), and Rakell (-4.31). These guys are getting chances but can’t finish. On the other hand, the players exceeding their expected goals by the widest margin thus far are: Kyle Connor (6.29), Alex DeBrincat (6.07), Frank Vatrano (5.96), Teuvo Teravainen (5.48), and Chris Kreider (5.08). These are players off to great starts, but sustainability could be a challenge.

#20 One of the bigger tests of any buy-low theory is Columbus Blue Jackets left winger Johnny Gaudreau. He and Patrick Laine were benched in Thursday’s 3-2 loss to Arizona, and Gaudreau has a paltry six points (1 G, 5 A) and 40 shots on goal through 17 games. Gaudreau’s shot rate is down to 2.35 per game and if he can’t make it work with a shooter like Laine, then the Blue Jackets need to make some changes because it makes no sense to invest so much in Gaudreau, only to let him wither on the vine with a line that isn’t working. Gaudreau and Laine have controlled the flow of play to some degree at five-on-five, with 57.3% Corsi, but they are pulling just 40.9% of expected goals and that isn’t going to cut it. It’s notable that Gaudreau has had more success with his most common linemate, Boone Jenner, with a 58.5% Corsi and 58.0% of expected goals. Somehow, some way, the Blue Jackets need to find the right fit for Gaudreau and fantasy managers can lurk and wait for the answer because Gaudreau’s value right now is about as low as it could get.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 20 Sep 2023 13:20:39 +0000

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Ducks center Mason McTavish (37) stickhandles during the Anaheim Ducks versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 23, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Anaheim went into the 2022-23 with low expectations and still managed to finish below them. They posted a 23-47-12 record, which was an 18-point drop from 2021-22, and ended last in the league. Despite having a solid young forward core of Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish, Anaheim finished 31st offensively with 2.51 goals per game. They did just as poorly at the other end of the ice with John Gibson recording a 14-31-8 record, 3.99 GAA and .899 save percentage in 53 outings. To be fair to Gibson, he had the league’s worst defense in front of him when measured by five-on-five expected goals against (221.12), but clearly, he couldn’t make things any better. In summary, Anaheim was just a terrible team in basically every respect.

What’s Changed? There hasn’t been much in the way of roster turnover. Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and goaltender Anthony Stolarz left as free agents while the Ducks signed Alex Killorn to a four-year, $25 million contract to bolster their top-six. Anaheim also had the best odds of getting Connor Bedard but lost the draft lottery to Chicago. The silver lining is that the Ducks were able to use the second overall pick on Leo Carlsson, who could make the Ducks this year and has the potential to develop into a great two-way center.

What would success look like? No one would be surprised if Anaheim missed the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year, but they could at least show some progress. Zegras is entering his fourth NHL campaign and could take another step forward. Anaheim might also get a strong bounce back campaign from 21-year-old defenseman Jamie Drysdale, who missed almost the entire 2022-23 campaign due to a shoulder injury. Carlsson’s development is also of the utmost importance, and if he has a strong rookie campaign, that will go a long way towards giving Ducks fans hope.

What could go wrong? Drysdale is a big part of the Ducks’ long-term plans, so if he suffers another major injury, then it will be an extremely troubling sign. There’s also a chance that Anaheim will lean on Carlsson too much before he’s ready, which might lead to him struggling and messing with his confidence. There’s a good chance new head coach Greg Cronin will help with the development of Anaheim’s young players, given his lengthy coaching resume that includes time as a bench boss in the AHL and the NCAA’s Northeastern University. However, this will be Cronin’s first opportunity as a head coach at the NHL level, so there is some risk that his methods might prove less effective at the highest level, which would in turn complicate the Ducks’ rebuilding efforts.

Top Breakout Candidate: McTavish had a decent rookie campaign with 17 goals and 43 points in 80 contests, but he has the potential to do so much better. He should get a chance to serve in a top-six role in his sophomore season after averaging just 12:49 of ice time in even-strength situations last year. The addition of Killorn will also likely result in McTavish getting a chance to consistently play alongside at least one of Killorn or Adam Henrique, which will give him a solid forward to work off.

Forwards

Trevor Zegras - C

A creative playmaker who paced the Ducks with 65 points in 2022-2023, Zegras is a highlight reel waiting to happen and plays with an audacity that could really be a marketing dream if he isn’t stuck toiling for a bottom-dwelling franchise. Zegras is among the players most likely to attempt, and succeed, a lacrosse-style goal, and seems to be gaining a reputation for talking on the ice, both of which tend to play better if your team is winning. Zegras has room to improve in his own right, not least of all on his faceoffs, as he has won 40.9% of his draws in 180 career games. He is one of 56 players to have recorded at least 60 points in each of the past two seasons and that feels like the 22-year-old is just scratching the surface of what he could become with the right supporting cast. Questions about that supporting cast are the main concern when it comes to projecting Zegras’ production for the 2023-2024 season. Last season, his most common linemate was Ryan Strome, followed by Troy Terry and Adam Henrique. Newcomer Alex Killorn should be considered as a possibility to play on Zegras’ wing and 65-70 points should be a fair expectation.

Troy Terry - RW

It took some time, but in the past two seasons, Terry has started to reach his potential as an offensive performer, in part because he is generating more shots. Last season, he had a career high 2.69 shots on goal per game and has scored 47 even-strength goals in the past two seasons, which is tied for 29^th. In his last 27 games of the regular season, Terry delivered 27 points (11 G, 16 A). He has become a well-rounded player who creates opportunities, can finish, and has reliable defensive results as well, and that is not to be taken for granted on a Ducks team with many holes. Terry had a Corsi percentage of 48.7% which doesn’t sound like much, but it was the best among Ducks regulars. Terry, who will turn 26 before the 2023-2024 season begins, signed a long-term contract extension with the Ducks this summer, and should be a core piece while this team tries to turn the corner. While his shooting percentage predictably declined last season, Terry did increase his shot volume and recorded more assists, so his overall production was nearly at the same level of his breakthrough 2021-2022 season. While his strong finish last season suggests that he might have a higher ceiling, a total in the range of 60 to 70 points is a reasonable expectation.

Mason McTavish - RW

The third pick in the 2021 draft, McTavish finished seventh in Calder Trophy voting last season and that was underachieving to some degree because he was among the favorites to be named top rookie going into the season. It took McTavish some time to get going, but from mid-December through mid-March, he produced 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 36 games, while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game, an inkling of the kind of production that awaits the sturdy young forward. McTavish thrived in the shooter position on the power play, waiting to unload one-timers from the faceoff circle, and that should only become a bigger part of McTavish’s game as he matures. While his overall impact as a rookie was modest, McTavish did flash potential and he already has a body that is strong enough to handle the challenges of pro hockey. He can play a physical game, win board battles, and get to the net in traffic, all of which can help him have success at this level. McTavish should take a step forward in his second season. There are still concerns about the supporting cast in Anaheim, but McTavish should see more ice time and his on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) was on the low end. After 43 points as a rookie, McTavish could see a jump to 55 points in his sophomore season.

Alex Killorn - LW

A valuable contributor to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cups wins, the veteran winger is coming off a season in which he tallied a career high 27 goals and 64 points. There are some warning signs for Killorn’s future production, however, as he scored on 18.9% of his shots last season, well above his career mark of 12.5%, and he will be 34 by the time the pucks drops this season. Even with those concerns, Killorn is a quality addition to the Ducks, as a veteran who has played a lot of meaningful hockey in his career. The challenge for Killorn will be to provide the same fire and competitive play for a team that is not going to be a Cup contender anytime soon. Killorn thrived for a long time as a complementary player to elite talent in Tampa Bay. He is not going to have that kind of talent around him in Anaheim so, combined with likely regression in his percentages, Killorn should see a significant drop in his scoring. His possession numbers were already starting to sag in the past couple of seasons and that was with a strong Lightning team. There will likely be a new career low in Corsi percentage this season in Anaheim. Killorn had a fabulous finish to his time in Tampa Bay. In 21 games after the trade deadline, he had 20 points (12 G, 8 A) and then he added three goals and five points in six playoff games. After a career-high 64 points last season, it would be asking a lot for Killorn to produce even 50 points in Anaheim in 2023-2024.

Frank Vatrano - LW

Throughout his career, the 29-year-old winger has established that he can put pucks on the net and last season that resulted in him scoring more than 20 goals for the second time in his career. While the goals were there, Vatrano had a tough season defensively, too, and a rebuilding team like the Ducks brought in the likes of Strome and Vatrano hoping to have some consistency and reliability and that did not happen last season. When he is firing the puck, Vatrano can get hot. During a 10-game stretch in January and February, he scored eight goals on 39 shots with seven of those goals coming at even strength. That is a useful contribution from a middle six winger. Vatrano played a career-high 16:41 per game in 2022-2023, and while he will have a steady role this season, that ice time could come down a bit, too, thanks to the addition of Killorn. Another 20-goal season remains within Vatrano’s reach, but he typically scores more goals than assists, so his point total might hover around 35 points.

Ryan Strome - C

Even though he contributed 15 goals and 41 points in his first season for the Ducks, Strome got crushed defensively. It looked promising early on, when Strome had 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the first 13 games, but he could not sustain that production. He has spent most of his career in a complementary role, but the Ducks could use more leadership from the 30-year-old or, at the very least, much more reliable play away from the puck. For most of his career, Strome’s defensive play has hovered around average, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse depending on the season. In 2022-2023, though, he got caved in and the Ducks were outscored 72-47 during five-on-five play with Strome on the ice. That is far too lopsided and if Strome can’t offer reliable defensive play, he would likely have to shift to the wing, which would be less than ideal considering Isac Lundestrom will be out of the lineup for the first half of the season. If Strome’s defensive play bounces back, he can still provide value in a middle-six role for Anaheim, but there is enough uncertainty that 40 points is about what should be expected.

Adam Henrique - LW

Even though he was limited to just 62 games last season, Henrique still scored 22 goals, the sixth time in his career that he reached the 20-goal threshold. A reliable player who can productively handle center or wing, Henrique has won 53.0% of his faceoffs since joining the Ducks and is going into the final year of his contract, which makes him prime trade bait for this upcoming season. If he continues to produce, that will only make him more in demand. Henrique is a high-percentage finisher, scoring on 15.3% of his shots over the course of his career. Among active players that have scored at least 100 goals, that ranks 15^th. He can get on a hot streak at times. During an 11-game stretch in the second half of the season, Henrique contributed 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and there are not that many Ducks who can even claim to be capable of that kind of production. Injuries have been a common feature for Henrique in in the past couple of seasons, and that should put a limit on expectations for what he might produce in 2023-2024. With the expectation that he will likely miss significant time, 20 goals and 40 points would be a fair target for Henrique.

Jakob Silfverberg - RW

A four-time 20-goal scorer, Silfverberg managed just 10 goals last season as he saw his ice time reduced. The veteran winger averaged 15:16 per game, his lowest time on ice since 2013-2014, his first season with the Ducks. While his offensive contributions are fading, Silfverberg remains a quality defensive winger, and there is value in that, especially on a team where there is a need for any kind of reliable defensive play. He has started more than twice as many shifts in the defensive zone over the past two seasons, a tilt in the ice reflecting his change in deployment. Silfverberg had a 17-game goalless drought early in the season then wrapped up the season without a goal in his last 19 games. Even so, Silfverberg should still have a secure role in the middle six, but there is limited offensive upside at this point, so he is not likely to surpass 30 points.

Brock McGinn - LW

Having scored a dozen goals in back-to-back seasons, McGinn does offer some finishing ability, but his overall offensive contributions are limited. He is a quality checking winger, and the 29-year-old should be a bottom six upgrade for the Ducks, though he did not have much success in 15 games for Anaheim after he was acquired from Pittsburgh as part of the Dmitry Kulikov trade last season. He has flashed some offensive potential from time to time, scoring eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a 10-game span last November, but he also endured a 26-game pointless drought after Christmas that showed why McGinn is more suited to a checking role. While McGinn hit career highs of 16 goals and 30 points with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2017-2018, he has not been able to hit those highs again, so it would be unreasonable to expect more than 25 points from him this season.

Max Jones - LW

Considering he was a first-round pick in 2016, the Ducks have been waiting a while for Jones to fulfill his potential and the 19 points (9 G, 10 A) he scored last season counts as a career high. While Jones has good size and can skate, his total contribution remains limited. He does bring a physical element as a willing hitter, who had a career-high 110 hits last season and will drop the gloves from time to time, but if Jones can’t even surpass 20 points in a season, then he has little overall value. Now that he is 25 years old, he runs the risk of getting nudged out by younger prospects who are ready to challenge for full-time jobs in the NHL, so anything that he can do to solidify his role in the lineup should be embraced.

Defense

Cam Fowler - D

The 31-year-old is coming off a season in which he produced a career high 48 points while logging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game for the fourth time in his career. Fowler can distribute the puck and should play a ton for a Ducks team that is lacking proven NHL options on the blueline. That said, Fowler should not be killing penalties, as there have been 96 defensemen to play at least 300 4-on-5 minutes over the past three seasons, and Fowler ranks 93^rd in rate of expected goals against and 88^th in rate of shot attempts against. His reliability does make Fowler a valuable contributor in Anaheim, and he is the safest bet to quarterback the power play, at least at the start of the season. In the past two seasons, Fowler has scored 32 of his 90 points on the power play, so he should be able to contribute 40-plus points this season.

Jamie Drysdale - D

A torn labrum in his shoulder left the 21-year-old to play just eight games last season so it was effectively a lost season. The sixth pick in the 2021 Draft, Drysdale is a captivating skater, whose edge work sets him apart and gives him a chance to create more offense. On a rebuilding Ducks squad, with a bunch of rookies challenging for spots on the blueline, Drysdale might have an advantage when it comes to earning a top-four role, but if he squanders that opportunity as he returns from injury, he could be at risk of losing ice time to other prospects on Anaheim’s blueline. Given how thin the Ducks are on the blueline, a healthy Drysdale should see a lot of ice time, and it will be up to him to show that he deserves it. With such a limited track record, there are a wider range of outcomes for Drysdale’s point production this season but, if he is healthy, he will likely see power play time and could deliver 35-40 points.

Radko Gudas- D

One of the most punishing hitters in the league, Gudas has accumulated a league-leading 667 hits over the past two seasons, and he has done that playing on a third pairing, averaging 17:42 time on ice per game for the Florida Panthers. Moving to Anaheim there may be an opportunity for Gudas to log more ice time, and he has been effective enough in his depth role that he could be worth a look in a bigger role. He is also 33 years old and has never averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game in a season, so that is hardly the profile of a defender that is ready to take on substantially more minutes. Gudas is not particularly adept with the puck on his stick, so if he even hits 20 points, that would be the first time since 2018-2019 to hit that modest threshold.

Goaltending

John Gibson - G

It was hard enough to get a feel for what the Anaheim Ducks might get from John Gibson last year. He was floating in no-man’s land with an albatross contract and a career data set that suggested his best performances were somewhere in his rearview mirror, with even his style showing signs of genuine fatigue and not just his famous unhurried mannerisms. Then, he and the team were saddled with some off-ice distractions during the summer months. A media report suggested that the Pittsburgh native was going to refuse to play another game for the Ducks in an attempt to force their hand on a trade - and although his agent tried to quickly squash the report as nothing more than an inflammatory and false rumor, the damage had largely been done.

Now, Gibson will enter the 2023-24 season fresh off his worst statistical season to date, with ugly rumors swirling and making it hard to imagine he’ll be able to perform completely unbothered. He posted a career-high 31 losses last season in 53 games, falling below the .900 save percentage unadjusted over the entire season for the first time in his NHL career. And particularly to start the season, those numbers weren’t all the fault of a porous defence in front of him; he went through entire stretches during the season during which he posted the worst expected goals numbers in the entire Pacific Division. And like the last couple of years, it wasn’t all just on paper, either. His reactive speeds seemed slower, with the former league star misreading cross-ice plays and lagging behind incoming attacks in a way that made him look like he might have just lost his touch.

The good news, though, is that those numbers started to change over the back half of the 2022-23 season. While he still struggled from an outcome perspective, more of that appeared to be the fault of a defence that allowed more shots against than anyone else; Gibson himself didn’t return to star form, but his expected outputs returned to exactly league average, suggesting a slow but sure bounce-back for the starter. It’s possible that he could be getting closer to shaking off some of the bad form he was starting to display as the Ducks entered free-fall; it likely isn’t enough to push them back into contention for a Wild Card spot, but it could at the very least be enough to help get his career back on track for the final few years of his contract. The only question is whether that will play out in Anaheim, or if they’ll move him out at the deadline if his numbers improve enough.

Alex Stalock - G

The Anaheim Ducks are officially in full rebuild mode. They were the worst team in the NHL in 2022-23 - and with a tumultuous goaltending situation for John Gibson, the team made the right move bringing in a veteran who seems to do nothing but boost locker room morale.

Alex Stalock is an undersized option in net and he’s coming off of his first full NHL season since 2019-20 (he missed the entirety of the 2020-21 campaign due to a case of myocarditis and played just one NHL game the following year). But he made sure that his comeback season, despite playing for the also-heavily-rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks, was one that counted. His .908 unadjusted save percentage for Chicago over a 27-game offering was among the best performance by any goaltender on a bottom-tier squad, and his seemingly relentless optimism - shown in his refusal to ditch the aggressive save selections he’s always loved and his full sixty-minute efforts even behind a struggling squad - should serve Anaheim well regardless of who he tandems with. The expectation, of course, is that he’d split the net with John Gibson. But if the Ducks ultimately have to part ways with their beleaguered number one, expect to see Stalock as a guiding presence for the up-and-coming Lukas Dostal.

Projected starts: 25-30

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Trade market heating up – Players with increasing value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 10 Feb 2023 20:43:06 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 05: New York Rangers center Filip Chytil (72) tracks the play during the New York Rangers versus the Montreal Canadiens game on January 05, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Rangers dive into the trade market and the St. Louis Blues might just be getting started as sellers. Players with increasing value include Filip Chytil, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Kyle Palmieri, and more.

#1 The Rangers acquired right winger Vladimir Tarasenko from the Blues, and the veteran has 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 38 games, but has failed to record a point in four games since returning from a broken hand that kept him out of the lineup for more than three weeks. Moving to the Rangers ought to give Tarasenko a chance to play with Artemi Panarin, which is a plus, and Tarasenko is already due for some positive shooting percentage regression – he has a 9.7% shooting percentage, and he has never had a season in which he played more than 25 games and finished with a shooting percentage below 10.0%.

#2 Heading back to St. Louis, winger Sammy Blais did not really work out in New York, managing zero goals and nine assists in 54 games going back to last season. Blais has some fantasy sleeper appeal, especially in banger leagues, because the Blues are likely to give him more playing time than he was getting with the Rangers and Blais is a prolific hitter, averaging more than three hits per game for his career.

#3 With Tarasenko departing, the immediate beneficiary in St. Louis would seem to be winger Jake Neighbours, the 20-year-old rookie who is in the AHL, but he has contributed eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 27 games and is poised to play a bigger role down the stretch if the Blues are going to embark on a serious rebuild by dealing their veterans with expiring deals. If the Blues are going into overhauling their roster, Ryan O’Reilly and Ivan Barbashev will both have plenty of appeal on the trade market, and they have veteran defensemen on long-term deals – Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy – and it would not be a shock to see the Blues try to move one of them as well.

#4 A first-round pick of the Rangers in 2017, Filip Chytil is having a breakthrough season. He has tallied seven goals during a five-game goal-scoring streak, giving him career highs of 19 goals and 32 points in 43 games. Chytil is scoring on 20.2% of his shots, after scoring on 8.8% of his shots in 253 games prior to this season, so that shooting percentage is due to fall, but he is giving the Rangers a legitimate secondary scoring option.

#5 The New Jersey Devils are going to be without center Jack Hughes on a week-to-week basis due to an upper-body injury. That is a big absence from the lineup as Hughes put up 28 goals and 46 points in his last 30 games before the All-Star break. With Hughes out, Nico Hischier, Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer, and Michael McLeod fill out the middle of the ice for New Jersey and Ondrej Palat moved onto the No. 1 power play unit in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Seattle. Palat has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games.

#6 Scoring Calgary’s only goal in Thursday’s 2-1 loss at Detroit, Blake Coleman has forced his way into fantasy relevance. In his past 11 games, he has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 42 shots on goal. He is not hitting as much as he has in previous seasons, but Coleman’s elevated shot rate still gives him value across multiple categories.

#7 The production might be of the empty calorie variety for an Anaheim Ducks team that is nowhere close to competitive, but Frank Vatrano is at his volume-shooting best in recent games. In his past five games, Vatrano has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal, and anyone who is getting shots like that becomes interesting for fantasy managers. Vatrano has only scored on 7.8% of his shots this season, which would be the lowest mark of his career, so he is likely due for more good fortune around the net.

#8 Veteran winger Kyle Palmieri has not been as productive with the Islanders as he was during his prime in New Jersey, but he could have some sleeper value for the stretch run. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past seven games, while averaging more than 17 minutes per game. Palmieri also has 47 hits in 28 games, so that makes him a more viable deep league option.

#9 It has been anything but a smooth path for 2020 first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere, who has a modest 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 50 games in his third NHL season. He was even a healthy scratch earlier in the season, but with the Rangers reuniting Lafreniere with Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, they may have a quality secondary scoring line. Lafreniere has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. That counts as his most points in any six-game segment of the season and his most shots in a six-game stretch since October.

#10 Vegas Golden Knights right winger Phil Kessel is showing signs of life on their recent stretch of road games, putting up five points (3 G, 2 A) and 18 shots on goal in six straight games away from T-Mobile Arena. Kessel is clearly on the downside of his career, but could still help in a complementary role, and the Golden Knights need all hands on-deck now that captain Mark Stone is out for the rest of the season due to back surgery.

#11 San Jose Sharks winger Alexander Barabanov has been a reluctant shooter, but he is making his mark in a scoring role. In the past 16 games, he has accumulated 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal. That shot rate is not the most encouraging sign, but he is playing big minutes – 20 minutes or more in six of his past 18 games. After struggling to gain footing with Toronto, the 28-year-old has made the most of his opportunity in San Jose.

#12 Most of the time, in 20 Fantasy Points, the focus is on players that could provide more value in the future. There are a few players to consider this week that have declining value. First up is Colorado Avalanche winger Artturi Lehkonen, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Anyone getting a chance to play alongside Nathan MacKinnon has value, of course, but if Lehkonen’s production slows down, it becomes easier for the Avs to replace him in that spot.

#13 Seattle Kraken rookie center Matty Beniers is considered the clear front-runner in the Calder Trophy race for top rookie, but he has hit a rough patch, going without a point and managing 10 shots on goal in his past seven games. Beniers still leads all rookies with 17 goals and 36 points, but the longer this slump goes, the more opportunity there will be for challengers like Cole Perfetti and Mason McTavish, who are seven and eight points behind, respectively, to catch up.

#14 Surprisingly effective early in the season for the Detroit Red Wings, winger Dominik Kubalik had 25 points (10 G, 15 A) while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time in 25 games. In the two months since then, Kubalik has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 24 games and is playing less than 14 minutes per game. Sure, the Red Wings are getting healthier up front, which makes it more difficult to maintain that ice time, but the crash in production did not have to be quite so dramatic.

#15 Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson has often looked overwhelmed in recent seasons. It’s understandable, as the Ducks allow the highest rate of shots against in the league. He has turned in a respectable .906 save percentage since the holiday break, but the workload is getting outrageous. In those 13 games, he has faced 40 or more shots six times, and landed on 39 shots against in two more games. When it comes to fantasy value, Gibson has the potential to provide huge value because of how many shots he faces, but the downside of giving up five or six goals is too much, especially because it means that he is not likely to accumulate wins.

#17 With Cam Talbot injured, Anton Forsberg is getting more reps in goal for the Ottawa Senators. He has won four straight games and his .905 save percentage in 27 games is just a little below league average. The wins are a little easier to come by in Ottawa, at least relative to other non-playoff teams, so if Forsberg is getting regular starts, he becomes a viable option, especially in deeper fantasy leagues.

#18 Considering that Jacob Markstrom was a runner-up for the Vezina Trophy last season, it did not seem like a goalie controversy was going to be part of this season for the Calgary Flames, but it does appear to be trending in that direction. Markstrom has a .892 save percentage, which would be the lowest of his career for a season in which he played at least 20 games. Meanwhile, Daniel Vladar has a .903 save percentage in 20 appearances, which is okay, enough to get him more starts while Markstrom is struggling. Maybe the real question is whether the Flames would consider calling up Dustin Wolf from the AHL. The 21-year-old has a .928 save percentage in 34 games for the Calgary Wranglers this season, after a .924 mark in 47 AHL games last season.

#19 Since the holiday break, the Florida Panthers have the most productive power play, scoring 12.74 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. That comes in just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers (12.57), who have had the best power play in the league by a substantial margin. With the Panthers burying their power play chances, Matthew Tkachuk is tied for the lead in five-on-four scoring since the holiday break with 13 points in 19 games. Connor McDavid has 13 five-on-four points in 17 games. Other Panthers boosting their power play point totals in that time: Aleksander Barkov (11), Sam Reinhart (9), and Brandon Montour (8), who are all among the Top 15 five-on-four scorers.

#20 Again, since the holiday break, looking at players with the highest rate of on-ice expected goals in all situations, Matthew Tkachuk holds the lead among players with at least 100 minutes played at 6.13, followed by Nikolaj Ehlers (5.67), Roope Hintz (5.62), Zach Hyman (5.42), and Auston Matthews (5.36). Some interesting and possibly unexpected names in the Top 25 include Kyle Palmieri, Carter Verhaeghe, Tomas Hertl, and Michael Eyssimont. Strictly during five-on-five play, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe rank 1-2, followed by Hertl, Sam Bennett, and Jaccob Slavin. The takeaway here is that the Panthers have something cooking with their second line at even strength, in addition to their suddenly potent power play.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen - Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 17:36:15 +0000

ANAHEIM

FORWARDS

Trevor Zegras

One of the most exciting players in the league, the 21-year-old center exudes creativity when he is on the ice, regularly attempting – and succeeding – lacrosse-style goals, making between the legs shots and passes and that makes him highly marketable. It also earned him an invite to All-Star Weekend, just so he could put on a show, but for all of his audacity with the puck, Zegras can still develop a more complete game as he moves towards his peak years. One notable area for improvement is in the faceoff circle, as he won just 39.9% of his draws last season. Zegras was the runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting after scoring 61 points in 75 games, finishing the season with 17 points in his last 18 games, and he is going to be expected to carry a big portion of the offensive load for Anaheim, at least when it comes to playmaking. While it would be tempting to envision Zegras as a premier scorer as soon as this season, he is not there yet, so 70 points would still be a strong output in his second full NHL season.

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 03: Anaheim Ducks rightwing Troy Terry (61) gets set to pass with pressure from St. Louis Blues defenseman Niko Mikkola (77) during a NHL game between the Anaheim Ducks and the St. Louis Blues on May 03, 2021, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Mo. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

Troy Terry

The skilled winger erupted for a career-high 37 goals and 67 points in 2021-2022, having never scored more than 20 points in any previous season. He is not likely to continue scoring on more than 19% of his shots, as he did last season, but Terry did increase his shot volume and that offers a more sustainable path to increased production. Terry has remarkably few hits – 18 in 204 career games – and yet has established his credentials as both a finisher and a quality two-way winger. The biggest challenge might be finding the same kind of chemistry that he had with the now-retired center Ryan Getzlaf. Terry is a fascinating case when it comes to projections because last season’s scoring was so far beyond anything that he had done before in the NHL, yet he was scoring at an impressive clip in college and the American Hockey League, before reaching the NHL It’s reasonable to suspect that he will not score 37 goals and 67 points, but how far will he regress? 55-60 points seems a reasonable range.

Adam Henrique

Even though he has won at least 55.0% of his faceoffs in each of the past three seasons, Henrique has been playing more on the wing at this point in his career. The 32-year-old is a five-time 20-goal scorer who tallied 19 goals in 58 games last season. His 2.43 shots on goal per game last season was a career high. The veteran forward has improved his ability to drive play in recent seasons and he is an above average finisher, scoring on better than 15% of his shots on goal over the course of his career and never recording a full season with a shooting percentage under 12%. Henrique’s name lands in trade rumors quite a bit but the Ducks have plenty of reason to keep a proven veteran scorer to help ease the pressure on their younger talent. Even if Henrique could contribute 20 goals and 40 points that would have some value.

Ryan Strome

Signed as a free agent to anchor the Ducks’ second line, Strome is coming off the third season of his career during which he recorded at least 50 points, and he had a career-high 21 goals. He struggles in the faceoff circle, winning 45.3% of draws for his career. Strome has enjoyed his greatest success when skating on a line with star winger Artemi Panarin, and it might be difficult to find that kind of talent on the Ducks roster. Strome, 29, is not especially fast or strong, so he stands out with a heady approach to the game and solid playmaking. Strome might find it difficult to score as much in Anaheim, without having a star like Artemi Panarin on his wing, but a 45-point season should still be within his reach.

Frank Vatrano

Although he fell out of the Florida Panthers’ lineup last season, Vatrano thrived upon being traded to the New York Rangers, scoring eight goals and 13 points with 56 shots on goal in 22 games. The 28-year-old winger has been a strong shot generator for much of his career and while the sturdy winger is not the fastest skater, he is also not afraid to bang bodies on the forecheck and go to the high traffic areas necessary to get scoring chances. Vatrano should find a spot in Anaheim’s top six, which will provide an opportunity that is practically unprecedented in his career for him to play significant minutes and continue putting pucks on net. While Vatrano was with the Rangers last season, he played 71:30 with Ryan Strome during 5-on-5 play and the results were disastrous, including 34.2% Corsi and 36.2% of expected goals. Vatrano has never scored 40 points in an NHL season and that may not change this season, but he should be counted on to contribute 15-20 goals.

Isac Lundestrom

Although the 22-year-old has taken some time to establish his credentials as a full-time NHL player, he did have something of a breakthrough season in 2021-2022, scoring a career high 16 goals and 29 points. Some of that production was inflated by Lundestrom scoring on a career high 19.3% of his shots on goal, but it was a sign of progress and Lundestrom has room to improve offensively. Defensively, he is mature beyond his years and is already a reliable checking center, though like other Ducks centers, Lundestrom struggles in the faceoff dot, winning 45.0% of his faceoffs throughout his career. As the Ducks embark on a rebuilding process, Lundestrom’s development as a third-line center ought to be a priority. Maybe Lundestrom’s shooting percentage will fall, and his track record indicates that there is a definite ceiling on how much he will score, but he could still challenge for 30 points with some positive regression related to his on-ice shooting percentage.

Maxime Comtois

A power forward who has some skill and is eager to play a physical role, Comtois is coming off a down season in which his ice time, goal and point production all collapsed. It was a surprising development after he had 33 points in 55 games the year before. The 23-year-old was substantially better in 2020-2021, going hard to the net and finding soft spots in the defense so that he would be in scoring position. He opened the 2021-2022 season with zero points in his first 11 games and the season never really got on track after that because Comtois’ ice time was cut, and he was left scrambling as he tried to catch up. He has shown that he can be a contributor at this level, but he is now in the position of trying to recapture that early career success, so there is some element of pressure on him going into the 2022-2023 season. If Comtois can stay in the lineup, he could contribute 15 goals and 30-plus points and he has the tools to provide even more if he finds the right fit in the Ducks lineup.

Jakob Silfverberg

A blood clot limited the 31-year-old winger to 53 games last season, and he managed just five goals, scoring on a career-low 4.2% of his shots on goal. Throughout his career, Silfverberg has been a reliable shot generator who has four 20-goal seasons to his credit. Combined with a quality defensive game, he has been a solid middle six winger for close to a decade, playing at least 16:57 per game for seven straight seasons, but his offensive production has started to wane, and health has become more of an issue in recent seasons. On a young Ducks squad, however, there should be a role for a healthy Silfverberg, but considering how his past two seasons have gone, don’t expect more than 30 points.

Max Jones

A torn pectoral muscle meant that Jones saw action in just two games last season, which was not ideal for his development, but the 24-year-old has shown that he can be an effective depth winger, albeit one that has managed 28 points in 137 career games. From the Ducks’ perspective, they would like to get Jones healthy and then maybe find out if he has enough skill to hold a role in the top nine. He has played 13:56 per game in his career but the lack of production in those minutes suggests that Jones still has something to prove if he is going to receive that much ice time. So far, his top end is a dozen points in a season so if he could produce 20 points and stay healthy, that would have to be considered progress. Jones can be a physical presence – he has 184 hits in 107 games over the past three seasons – and he will fight, too, but if his career is going to have any staying power, he needs to stay healthy and contribute something offensively.

DEFENSE

John Klingberg

Following a disappointing offseason in which he could not find a suitable long-term contract as a free agent, the 30-year-old right-handed power play quarterback signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Ducks, which feels a lot like a make-good deal for a blueliner who still generates offense at an elite level, but whose defensive play has declined in recent seasons. Klingberg has played more than 22 minutes per game for seven consecutive seasons and has 97 power play points since 2017-2018, which ranks seventh among NHL defensemen. He should give the Ducks power play a boost this season, at least until he gets shopped to a contender before the trade deadline, and if he produces 45 points that would set Klingberg up to cash in as a free agent next summer.

Cam Fowler

A reliable veteran defenseman who is not outstanding at any one thing but does a lot of things well and that makes him a legit top pair defenseman. Fowler scored a career high 42 points last season, thanks in part to 18 points on the power play, his most with the man advantage since scoring 23 power play points as a rookie in 2010-2011. He has matured into a quality player and the 30-year-old defenseman is the one player that the Ducks were willing to invest in long term. For a young team that is almost assuredly going to make its share of mistakes, Fowler’s steady hand is essential. Klingberg’s arrival is likely to reduce Fowler’s impact on the power play, but he should still be able to provide 35 points in addition to his defensive value.

Kevin Shattenkirk

The 33-year-old right-shot defenseman can still move the puck and last season’s 35 points was his most since 2016-2017. However, his defensive performance also declined last season and the overall results with Shattenkirk on the ice were not as strong as they have been in the past. He has never been a bruiser on the back end, but Shattenkirk did record a career-high 135 blocked shots last season, a slightly different contribution from a player whose reputation has been built on strong play driving results and effective work on the power play. His offensive contributions may be sliding at this point, but Shattenkirk could still find his way to 30 points, a threshold he has reached eight times in his career.

Jamie Drysdale

A brilliant skater and dynamic puck moving defenseman, the 20-year-old still has room to grow and will need a more well-rounded game if he is going to maximize his impact. Nevertheless, even with some defensive shortcomings, Drysdale showed some positive signs in his second NHL season and given his age his career ascent should continue. With the Ducks bringing in Klingberg, they can be patient with the sixth pick in the 2020 Draft. Drysdale’s development does not need to be rushed in the short term, so maybe he scores 35-plus points, a little improvement on his rookie season, but not necessarily the explosion that could come in another year or two. Ideally, for the Ducks, his play without the puck will get steadier, too.

GOALTENDING

John Gibson

The underlying numbers for a few years now have been warning the Anaheim Ducks that goaltender John Gibson, once capable of carrying the team’s success on his back, had finally reached a point where he needed a break. It took until this past season for the raw data to catch up – but sure enough, the Ducks will enter the 2022-23 season unsure of just what their goaltending can do to save them, a position they haven’t really found themselves in for just shy of a decade.

The biggest concern with Gibson is that it’s hard to tell whether he’s suffering from physical wear and tear or if he’s starting to simply mentally fatigue after so many years of facing high-volume shot loads behind the Anaheim defense. He’s always embodied an unhurried structure combined with a quick mental read of the game, economizing his movements and staying low and deep to goad shooters into thinking they’ve got an easy shot on net. It seemed like that worked for him, right up until it didn’t; over the last year, he looked less unhurried and more delayed in his cross-crease movements, and he lacked that extra level of explosive movement upon arrival in position to snag errant shots and take up space that shooters didn’t think he could. If that’s simply due to too much time spent playing a physically demanding position behind a team that wasn’t giving him much help, it seems reasonable to hope that he can bounce back with the team’s continued rebuild; if he’s struggling to stay sharp in reading his opponents because he’s hit his capacity after the last few years, it’s much harder to predict whether or not he can bounce back. His biggest struggles seemed to come with tracking quick cross-ice puck movement fast enough to get his body across the net upon a shot release, and in using his hands to stop shots without opening up holes around his torso; while he certainly wasn’t being given enough support to pin the year entirely on him, it was a noticeable enough slump that it’s worth wondering whether or not we’ve started to witness his decline. If that’s the case, that’s bad news for Anaheim – they’re hoping to take tangible steps forward in their rebuild efforts, and Gibson is still under contract for another four years after this one. That’s not a problem if he plateaus at merely good instead of elite – the team could always use him to guide a newcomer like Calle Clang or Lukas Dostal in the final years of his career – but if he continues to trend down, they’ll need to make a tough decision about what he still has in the tank and whether or not he’s still a good fit for the franchise.

Projected starts: 50-55

Anthony Stolarz

It’s a satisfying feeling to watch former Philadelphia Flyers prospect Anthony Stolarz really find his stride in the NHL for Anaheim, even as it feels tough to watch his tandem partner John Gibson struggle. Stolarz, a roller hockey-raised New Jersey native who wowed scouts when he burst onto the scene as a late bloomer with the London Knights a decade ago, proved in his first full season as an NHL backup that he was worth the wait; his .917 raw save percentage and .672 quality start percentage through a 28-game campaign for Anaheim were good enough to consider him one of the most underrated backups in the league. Now, he’ll be back to prove that he wasn’t just a flash in the pan; he’s signed through the season on an incredibly agreeable $950,000 contract to tandem with Gibson and hopefully help the Ducks look a little more promising in the tumultuous Pacific Division.

Stolarz is such a fascinating goaltender to watch because his late start is still so apparent in his style, which makes his natural talent all the more obvious to observers. He looms over opponents at a whopping 6-foot-6 and 243 pounds but doesn’t play deep in his net like most larger netminders; instead, he showcases a lot of natural agility challenging opponents and pushing across the crease with plenty of speed to make sprawling saves and flashy highlight-reel second stops. His lack of consistent, formal technique make it hard to feel confident that he’s got true starter potential, especially as NHL shooters start to figure him out; he remains a little too easy to goad into challenging the wrong man on the ice, leaving him forced to make desperation saves in moments where he probably could have gotten the job done in a much simpler way. But for the moment, he keeps his opponents guessing enough that he’s able to suss out what they want to do during their moments of hesitation. He doesn’t mind getting aggressive, either, which can force shooters in close to release shots too quickly in an attempt to keep the puck away from him; it’s a high-stress style to watch, but it may just be the energy and morale boost that the Ducks need while they let GIbson work his way back from a year that disappointingly looked just ‘okay’.

Projected starts: 25-30