John Marino – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – UTAH MAMMOTH – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 19:43:53 +0000

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - JANUARY 11: Utah Hockey Club Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev (98) as seen during an NHL game between The New York Islanders and The Utah Hockey Club on January 11, 2025 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT. (Photo by Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire)

In the franchise’s first season in Utah, after moving the roster (if not the team, officially) from Arizona, Utah finished with 89 points (38-31-13), missing the playoffs, but there were some encouraging signs. The Utah Hockey Club had the underlying numbers of a contender, ranking sixth in Corsi percentage (53.5) and fifth in expected goals percentage (53.9). They ranked 13th with 8.06 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, and 17th with 7.47 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. Unfortunately, they did not have the goaltending to reach the postseason. Karel Vejmelka appeared in 58 games, and played well, but Connor Ingram struggled before re-entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and Utah didn’t have any great options otherwise, leading to Vejmelka handling a heavier-than-expected workload.

What’s Changed?

Utah got busy in the offseason, naming the team the Mammoth, and taking a big swing in the trade market, sending defenceman Michael Kesselring and right winger Josh Doan to the Buffalo Sabres for winger J.J. Peterka, who adds an up-and-coming scorer to the Mammoth roster. Utah signed free agent right winger Brandon Tanev as well as Stanley Cup champion defenceman Nate Schmidt. They also inked goaltender Vitek Vanecek, who provides insurance behind Vejmelka if Ingram is unable to return to action. Winger Matias Maccelli was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs and veteran centre Nick Bjugstad signed with the St. Louis Blues as a free agent. The move for Peterka was an indication that the Mammoth are not going to be shy about doing what it takes to make the team better.

What would success look like?

A playoff berth would have to count as success, since the previous iteration of the franchise, the Arizona Coyotes, reached the playoffs just once in their last 12 seasons in the desert. There is a quality core of forward talent that can take this team to the postseason, but the questions will land on defence and in goal, where depth could be an issue. It doesn’t appear as though the Coyotes are ready to be real contenders, but earning a playoff spot in that challenging Central Division would be a successful season and it’s not some ridiculous pipedream to believe that they can get there.

What could go wrong?

Last season could have gone much worse for Utah if Vejmelka had not played so well so, like most teams, the Mammoth can ill afford to have subpar goaltending. They do have a few stars that are probably harder to replace, like defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is hugely important and with the moderate level of blueline talent behind him, an injury to their top defenceman could be devastating. Utah’s improved depth could help them overcome an injury or two up front, but this team is still working on relatively thin margins, so a few bad bounces, unfortunate injuries, or subpar goaltending could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Third-year centre Logan Cooley has to be the pick here, even after a relatively high on-ice shooting percentage last season, because he is poised to be the No. 1 centre for Utah, which would mean playing with left winger Clayton Keller, who just put up 90 points (30 G, 60 A) last season, so that kind of opportunity raises the ceiling for Cooley who, in his own right, is a dynamic offensive talent. If there is chemistry with Keller, Cooley may just continue his upward scoring trend.

FORWARDS

Clayton Keller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	34	56	90	1.13

A talented playmaking winger, Keller put up a career-high 90 points (30 G, 60 A), continuing to provide offense at an elite level. In the past three seasons, he has 252 points (100 G, 152 A) in 241 games, ranking 16th in the league in that time. Keller is on the smaller side and plays according to his strengths. He only had 11 hits last season, his lowest total since his rookie season in 2017-2018, but he thrives in open space, whether it’s in transition or on the power play, where he can set up on the half wall and direct the play from there, either as a setup man or launching one-timers. His 37 power play points last season was tied for third, behind only Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. Keller uses his quickness to create space from which he generates offensive opportunities, with the element of surprise working in his favour. Keller is a highly skilled player whose puckhandling makes him a challenge for defenders and goaltenders alike when left in a one-on-one situation. With Keller established as a legitimate star player for the newly named Mammoth, now is the time for the team to build a quality supporting cast around him, so that he can continue to deliver on the offensive end. While Keller is not necessarily noted for his defensive acumen, the puck was moving the right way when he was on the ice in 2024-2025; last season he had a 54 percent Corsi with 53.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play. If the supporting cast can continue to get better, then Keller should be a prime offensive threat in 2025-2026. It would be fair to expect 30-35 goals and 85-90 points, with a chance to challenge 100 points if he has good fortune in terms of percentages.

Logan Cooley

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	47	76	0.93

Drafted third overall in 2022, Cooley took a big step forward in his second NHL season, jumping from 44 points (20 G, 24 A) in 82 games in 2023-2024 to 65 points (25 G, 40 A) in 75 games last season. The name of the game for Cooley is speed, as he uses his acceleration to separate from defenders and create dangerous opportunities off the rush. He plays with an offensively aggressive mindset, so he’s not afraid to go to the net when the opportunity presents itself and seeing what he has accomplished through his first two seasons offers a tantalizing glimpse into his potential. At the same time, there is still room for improvement. While Cooley had a 50.4 percent Corsi in his sophomore season, up by three percent over his rookie campaign, his relative numbers were down 2.2 percent from the previous season. Some of that may be that Utah had more all-around talent so other lines also pushed play, but if he is going to be the star that he appears he can, he should not be trailing others when it comes to controlling play. Cooley remains a work in progress in the faceoff circle, but did improve, going from a winning percentage of 38.0 percent as a rookie to 44.7 percent last season. With an expectation that Cooley spends most of his time skating on a line with Keller, the young center’s production should continue to ascend but projections need to take into account that his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 11.7 percent, a mark that he is highly unlikely to duplicate in 2025-2026. As such, 25 goals and 65-70 points is a fair possibility and while it might not seem like much of an increase, he could use power play production to offset a likely five-on-five regression.

J.J. Peterka

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	34	64	0.78

Coming off a season in which he racked up a career-high 68 points (27 G, 41A) for the Buffalo Sabres, Peterka insisted on getting moved and was highly sought after as a 23-year-old winger just coming into his prime. Utah stepped up, sending Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to the Sabres to complete the deal and then signed Peterka to a new five-year, $38.5 million contract. His arrival in Utah gives the Mammoth another legitimate high-end offensive talent and it could be the type of move that lifts them into postseason contention. Coming from Buffalo, Peterka does not have playoff experience, but he has shown well when playing for Germany at the World Championships. He compiled 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 18 games during the 2023 and 2024 World Championships and was named the top forward at the 2023 event. While Peterka certainly appears to be on the upswing in his career, there should be some caution exercised because his on-ice shooting percentage last season was 14.2 percent, an unsustainably high number that was the highest in the league among forwards that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes. So, while the tendency might be to lean towards optimism for Peterka, it is going to be difficult to overcome that likely statistical regression. That being the case, it’s fair to expect him to challenge 30 goals and 65 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Dylan Guenther

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	32	35	67	0.85

Drafted ninth overall in 2021, Guenther signed an eight-year, $57.14 million contract prior to last season and while it seemed like a major commitment to a player who had played a total of 78 NHL games to that point, Guenther quickly showed that it could be money well spent as he busted out with 27 goals and 60 points last season, showcasing a lightning-quick release that figures to serve him well for many years. There are so many NHL players who can really shoot the puck with authority that for the rare ones to stand out in that crowd there must be something special there and listening to teammates talk about Guenther’s shot, it appears that he is on a rare tier. The next step is to take more advantage of his shot during five-on-five play because Guenther has scored 51 goals in his NHL career and 25 of them have come via the power play. There is the possibility now that Guenther has enough experience to slide up the depth chart so that he could play first line at even strength, which should help him increase his even-strength scoring, because if it means playing with Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, those are two very skilled linemates. Expect Guenther to continue his career ascent in 2025-2026. It would be entirely fair to expect him to hit 30 goals and 65 points.

Nick Schmaltz

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

In the past four seasons, Schmaltz has ranked between 58 and last season’s career-high 63 points, producing at a consistent level, though there is an obvious argument that scoring 58 and 59 points in 63 games, as he did in 2022-2023 is better than 63 points in 82 games, as he did last season. Schmaltz is a talented playmaker who has gradually become more comfortable shooting the puck. He’s still not firing indiscriminately towards the opposing net, but 2.27 shots on goal per game last season got him to 20 goals even with a shooting percentage of 10.9 percent, which was well below his career mark, which was 14.2 percent going into last season. With sound offensive instincts and good puck skills, Schmaltz is a strong complementary player to Clayton Keller, though both of them are quite reluctant to get involved in physical play, as Schmaltz accrued just 14 hits last season. As the Mammoth improve their talent, Schmaltz could slide into a second line role, where he would still have plenty of opportunity to generate offense, but may also be split away from Keller. Knowing how consistently Schmaltz has contributed to the offense in recent seasons, it’s fair to expect something similar, maybe in the range of 20 goals and 55-60 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Barrett Hayton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	28	46	0.56

It sure seemed like a reach when the Arizona Coyotes drafted Hayton fifth overall in 2018, but they gave him ample opportunity to prove that he could play in a scoring role and what ultimately appears to have happened is that he has shown he can be a capable second-line center. He hit career highs with 20 goals, 26 assists, and 46 points last season while playing a little over 16 minutes per game. That has Hayton fitting into the Utah lineup just behind Logan Cooley on the center depth chart. Hayton has good speed to create opportunities and will go the net to generate chances, but the lack of consistency in his career makes it difficult to expect him playing higher in the lineup if the team has more viable options. At the same time, while his offensive numbers have never really taken off, Hayton has turned into a puck possession monster the past couple of seasons, earning 57.9 percent Corsi and 57.9 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play over the past two seasons. So, on one hand, the point production isn’t quite what is needed from a first-line center, but his two-way play has evolved to the point that he is a strong option as a second-line center and with the Mammoth improving their team depth, that means that Hayton should have quality wingers to play with this season. He should be able to contribute 15-20 goals and 40 points.

Lawson Crouse

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	16	31	0.39

After three consecutive seasons with at least 20 goals, Crouse saw his role decrease dramatically as the team moved to Utah last season, with his average ice time per game falling from 16:49 in 2023-2024 to 13:44 per game last season. His production plummeted, too, and he managed a dozen goals and 18 points. The category that Crouse could trade on, in terms of fantasy value, has always been hits. He peaked at 288 hits in 2018-2019 and still registered 193 hits in his diminished role last season. When he was scoring 20 goals and recording 175 hits, there was clear fantasy value to Crouse’s production, but last season’s decline made it far less appealing. With his size and physical presence, Crouse should be valuable in the modern NHL, because he can battle the biggest defenders and handle himself if a fight is needed, but he has also grown as a player to fill a complementary role, capable of finishing chances around the net. His most common linemates last season were Jack McBain, Nick Bjugstad, and Josh Doan. Crouse had quite a bit of success with the since-traded Doan, controlling 62.7 percent of expected goals and outscoring opponents 16-10, but it should be an indication that Crouse is a strong complementary option alongside more skilled playmakers. That should give at least some hope that Crouse can bounce back in 2025-2026, so expect 15-20 goals and 30-plus points, along with 190 hits.

Jack McBain

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	12	17	29	0.35

A 6-foot-4 center who uses his size to be an effective physical presence, McBain has earned the respect of the Mammoth, which was shown by his new five-year, $21.25 million contract, an indication that they view him as more than a fourth-line center. McBain recorded career highs in goals (13) and points (27) to go along with 291 hits and 78 penalty minutes last season. The scoring numbers alone don’t generate fantasy interest, but 291 hits ranked sixth in the entire NHL and that holds value in banger leagues already, but if McBain can expand his offensive repertoire, then he would gain more widespread appeal. While McBain doesn’t have a huge offensive pedigree in the NHL, he did have productive senior season at Boston College in 2021-2022, scoring 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in just 24 games, so maybe there is a path to him producing more if he gets consistent ice time in Utah’s top nine. If McBain gets a little more ice time in 2025-2026, then he can fairly be expected to contribute 10-15 goals and 30 points, and if he puts up 250-plus hits, too, that will give him some fantasy value and if he could pop more offensively, that appeal would climb quickly.

Alex Kerfoot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	20	32	0.40

A versatile veteran forward who has missed one game in the past five seasons, Kerfoot’s role was reduced last season, his ice time dropping more than two minutes per game and his point production dropped from 45 points in 2023-2024 to 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 2024-2025. In addition to his ice time being cut, Kerfoot suffered from a dramatic swing in his on-ice shooting percentage, going from 10.1 percent two seasons ago to a career-low 6.6 percent last season. Kerfoot has established in Colorado, Toronto, and Arizona before the move to Utah that he is a reliable complementary forward who can play wing and center, moving around the lineup as needed. Last season, he won 52.5 percent of his draws, only the second season in his career in which he was the right side of the faceoff ledger. The main concern when it comes to Kerfoot’s offensive production is his reluctance to shoot the puck, recording 203 shots on goal in 163 games over the past two years. In a supporting role for the Mammoth, Kerfoot should still be counted on to play every game, and he should find his way to double-digit goals and 30-35 points.

DEFENCE

Mikhail Sergachev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	40	52	0.67

Acquired from Tampa Bay following an injury-shortened 2023-2024 season, Sergachev provided Utah with the No. 1 defenceman that they needed. He sniped a career-high 15 goals and his 53 points was the second-highest total of his career. Sergachev averaged a career-high 25:07 of ice time per game and he brings a lot to the Utah defence. He is physically strong and can win puck battles, though he cut down on his hits last season compared to previous campaigns. Sergachev is also an excellent puck-handler who will use his wide base to protect the puck, taking the time necessary to make the best possible play. The smart move for the Mammoth to acquire Sergachev was that he was at a statistical buy-low point, coming off a season with a 95.1 PDO, and his percentages bounced back last season to 100.1 PDO, which is a little below his career mark, but much more in typical range. Sergachev did score on 11.4 percent of his shots on goal, which was more than double his career shooting percentage (5.6 percent) prior to last season, so that is a number likely to see some regression. Keeping in mind that he is playing 25 minutes per game for the Mammoth, Sergachev should still be able to hit double digits in goals and 50-plus points again.

Sean Durzi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	12	17	29	0.37

An early season shoulder injury sabotaged Durzi’s 2025-2026 season, limiting him to just 30 games, and he produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A). With the acquisition of Sergachev, Durzi was not needed to quarterback the top power play unit and that will still be the case this season, but Durzi has established his ability as a right-shot puck-moving defenceman. He has confidence to make plays on the offensive blueline and has a hard and accurate shot. Durzi does not play an especially physical game, but he is quick to get in the path of opposing shooters, recording 475 blocked shots in 242 career games. As the Mammoth improved as a team, Durzi found his way to a career-high 53.6 percent Corsi, which is, at least in part, a product of his ability to move the puck up the ice. While Durzi falls behind Sergachev on the depth chart, on a relatively thin Mammoth blueline, Durzi is still the second-best fantasy option, since he will play more than 20 minutes per game and should at least quarterback the second power play unit. In 2025-2026, look for Durzi to rebound as he challenges double digit goals and 30-35 points while also recording 140 blocked shots.

John Marino

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	3	21	24	0.34

Acquired from the New Jersey Devils last summer, Marino missed half of the season while recovering from back surgery, so he didn’t get into the lineup until January, but the veteran blueliner was effective once he got back into his groove. Marino recorded 14 points (1 G, 13 A) in 35 games and all of those points were at even strength, so, among the 248 defencemen to play at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Marino ranked sixth in assists per 60 minutes (1.25) and 14th in points per 60 minutes (1.34). He is an excellent skater who makes good passes to exit the defensive zone, but last season’s scoring pace was unusual as he has yet to match the 26 points (6 G, 20 A) that he scored as a rookie in 2019-2020. He is also not a particularly strong presence when battling in the corners, so there is some vulnerability in that aspect of his game, but it gets offset by his positive attributes and he finished last season with a 53.6 percent Corsi, with the Mammoth outscoring opponents 30-25 with Marino on the ice. That fits into any lineup and on a Mammoth team that is light on defensive depth, Marino should play a big role in 2025-2026. He has recorded one power play point, total, in the past three seasons, so there is a limit to what Marino will provide offensively, but he should be expected to contribute 20-25 points and around 90 blocked shots which, generally, will not draw much fantasy interest.

Olli Maatta

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	15	17	0.22

A veteran blueliner who has been bouncing around quite a bit in recent seasons, Maatta made the most of his opportunity in Utah, earning a three-year, $10.5 million contract. While that might not sound like a huge deal, the Mammoth are Maatta’s fourth team since the 2019-2020 season and he was struggling on Detroit’s third pair before Utah traded a third-round pick to acquire him. Maatta averaged 19:55 of ice time per game in Utah, a mark that he last surpassed in 2015-2016, his third season in the NHL. Thrust into a top four role on a team that didn’t have John Marino and Sean Durzi for significant chunks of the season, Maatta was a positive possession player and the Mammoth outscored opponents 41-39 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. That’s not a game-breaking performance, rather it’s an indication that he could competently fill a spot in Utah’s top four on the blueline and that’s enough. Maatta is a competent puck-moving defenceman, though he rarely sees power play ice time and that means his scoring production will be modest. He’s also not a hitter, as last season’s total of 25 hits was his lowest since 2014-2015, when he had 18 hits in 20 games. With security and what should be a regular role on the Mammoth blueline, expect Maatta to chip in 15-20 points with 110 blocked shots. Like Marino, that’s probably not enough to generate fantasy interest, but the blueline options are limited in Utah.

GOAL

Karel Vejmelka

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
46	23	16	4	3	.906	2.72

The Utah Mammoth seem to be opting for a kitchen sink approach in net at the moment, following a year that saw Connor Ingram fail to live up to the future starter trajectory he seemed to be on when he arrived in Arizona. They'll start the 2025-26 season with Ingram and the surprisingly reliable Karel Vejmelka as their tandem pairing, but Vitek Vanecek sits waiting in the wings in case something goes awry - and Matt Villalta is hanging around in the depth chart too, along with former Providence College standout Jaxson Stauber. All five goaltenders in Utah's immediate depth chart have NHL experience, but none have a storied history as a team's relied-upon starter - which feels very Coyotes of the Mammoth, despite the expansion team's attempt to forge their own identity.

The Mammoth didn't completely flounder last season, but they failed to reach the postseason by a big enough margin that it's clear something will need to change this fall. And while Vejmelka was clearly the team's best chance of success last year, he has a shaky history when asked to shoulder too much of the workload. Ingram will need to bounce back after his tough campaign if Utah hopes to challenge, and they've got far more reliable goaltending tandems waiting across the ice from a handful of the Western Conference's Wild Card contenders.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 18:33:53 +0000

SAINT PAUL, MN - FEBRUARY 11: New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton (7) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the New Jersey Devils and the Minnesota Wild, on February 11th, 2023, at the Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Review: After years of hardship, the Devils’ ship has been righted. New Jersey grew from the draft with home grown forwards Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Dawson Mercer combining for 133 markers to help the Devils tie for fourth in the league with 3.52 goals per game. The successful rebuild wasn’t just about developing prospects though. They’ve been proactive, snagging defenseman Dougie Hamilton as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2021, who then came up big for the Devils last season with 22 goals and 74 points in 82 outings. New Jersey also acquired Timo Meier from San Jose on Feb. 26, adding to an already stacked offense. The one big potential issue the Devils still have is goaltending. Mackenzie Blackwood struggled while Vitek Vanecek started hot but slowed as the campaign dragged on. Rookie Akira Schmid emerged as the potential solution though. After the Devils earned a 52-22-8 record in the regular season, Schmid outplayed Vanecek in the playoffs, though neither goalie could stop Carolina from ousting New Jersey in five games in the second round.

What’s Changed? New Jersey lost some scoring depth when Tomas Tatar walked as a free agent, but having Meier for a full campaign should more than make up for that. The Devils further enhanced their already strong offense by acquiring Tyler Toffoli, coming off his career-high 73-point performance, from Calgary in exchange for Yegor Sharangovich.

What would success look like? The good news for the Devils is last year’s success was largely thanks to a young core that’s not only talented, but deep. Even if one or two key forwards struggle or are hurt for stretches, there are enough alternative scoring threats on the team to power through it. New Jersey didn’t tweak its goaltending, but Vanek has shown he can be solid at times, and if Schmid, who is still just 23, is able to build off his strong 2022-23 campaign, then the Devils will be set for a deep playoff run.

What could go wrong? With so much promise though, it’s a little concerning how heavily their fate is tied to two relatively unproven goaltenders. Schmid still has just 33 games worth of NHL experience, even after including the playoffs. Vanecek at least has 141 regular season and playoff contests under his belt, but he hasn’t shown he can be a sustained presence, and worryingly, he’s fallen apart in the postseason with a career 4.52 GAA and .834 save percentage.

Top Breakout Candidate: The promise of the Devils’ forward group has been realized, but New Jersey has a lot of untapped potential remaining on the blue line, especially with regards to Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. Hughes in particular seems primed for a breakout campaign. This will be his first full NHL season after getting a taste last year, recording a goal and an assist in two regular-season games followed by two helpers in three playoff outings. He was also amazing with the University of Michigan, contributing 10 goals and 48 points in 39 outings. Although Hughes is still just 20 years old, he has the potential to serve in a top-four capacity this year while also receiving some power-play ice time.

Forwards

Jack Hughes

After erupting for 99 points in 78 games in his fourth NHL season, the 22-year-old playmaking center is ready to join the ranks of the elite. Hughes has great awareness of where everyone else is on the ice and has the confidence to create chances even when it looks like there is nothing available. Hughes scored a career high 43 goals even though his shooting percentage dropped from 15.8% the previous season to 12.8% last season, but he generated nearly an extra shot per game, going from 3.37 shots per game to 4.31 shots per game. That ability to generate shots and scoring chances at an elite level is why Hughes should be expected to keep scoring at such a high level. In his first 50 games of the season, Hughes recorded 67 points (35 G, 32 A), with 229 shots on goal, but then he suffered an upper-body injury which kept him out less than two weeks, but his production was not the same after that, as he put up 32 points (8 G, 24 A) in 28 games to finish the regular season. For all of his wonderful attributes, Hughes is laughably poor on faceoffs, winning 35.4% for his career, and he has shown no improvement, winning 35.3% of his draws last season. Maybe the biggest challenge when it comes to projecting Hughes’ scoring this season is related to his durability, or lack thereof. He has played an average of 61 games in four NHL seasons. While some of those seasons were shortened by the league, Hughes has still missed significant playing time. Healthy for a full season, Hughes has the upside to be a 120-point player, and there are not many of those, but taking injuries into account, it might be more reasonable to count on something closer to 90 points.

Nico Hischier

With Patrice Bergeron retiring, there may be an opening for someone new to take home the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward and Hischier is right at the top of the list of contenders after he finished as runner-up in 2022-2023. He also produced career highs of 31 goals and 80 points, increasing his shot output from 2.19 per game to 3.16 per game year over year. He started the season with 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in his first 18 games and finished the season with 19 points (3 G, 16 A) in his last 16 games. Hischier’s ability to take on more defensive responsibility helps free up Hughes to unleash his offensive game, so they really work well as a tandem down the middle of the ice for New Jersey. Hischier’s emergence offensively should only be enhanced by New Jersey keeping Meier and adding Tyler Toffoli because it gives the Devils more weapons up front. Considering his increased shot rate and significant role in the Devils lineup, Hischier should be in line for at least 75 points, with a chance to challenge or even exceed last season’s career-best output.

Timo Meier

A shot generating monster in San Jose, Meier was not as productive in New Jersey, with his shot rate dropping by more than one per game, and even though Meier struggled in the postseason, the Devils committed to signing him to a long-term contract extension. That seems more of a show of faith based on Meier’s previous performance in San Jose rather than what he did for New Jersey, when he contributed 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in 21 games, but he is a play-driving winger who is not afraid to use his size to create room in the offensive zone. Starting last season in San Jose, Meier did not score a goal in his first nine games, then tallied 27 goals in his next 38 games. Such is the power of shot generation – keep getting those shots and, eventually, they start to go in the net. Over the past two seasons, Meier has generated 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, ranking second behind only Toronto’s Auston Matthews. When trying to project Meier’s production, consider that he will probably play less for a strong New Jersey team than he did in San Jose, and his teammates should still allow him to generate a high rate of shots. That would make 35 goals and 65 points a reasonable target for Meier, but he has a higher ceiling, too. If everything goes well, a point per game is not out of the question.

Jesper Bratt

The 25-year-old winger scored a career high 32 goals and tied his career high with 73 points last season and he is one of 27 forwards league-wide to have recorded at least 70 points in each of the past two seasons. Bratt has explosive speed and excellent puck protection skills. He has become increasingly comfortable as a finisher, which makes him a more serious threat overall. His defensive impact has been slipping in recent seasons. Not enough to be a major problem, because Bratt led the Devils with a Corsi percentage of 58.4%, but if his defensive play gets tidied up, he would be an even stronger all-around player. Bratt opened last season with 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 19 games and it’s not like he collapsed after that, but it was tough to maintain that level. Even so, after back-to-back 73-point seasons, that remains a reasonable ballpark for this season, too.

Tyler Toffoli

A veteran who has excelled at every stop, Toffoli was a brilliant addition by the Devils. The 31-year-old right winger tallied career highs of 34 goals and 73 points for the Flames last season, with Calgary dominating play when Toffoli was on the ice, outscoring, out-shooting, and out-chancing the opposition. He is not the most graceful skater but has learned enough positional play over the years that he does not have to rely on speed to be in the right place to make things happen. Controlling play has been routine for Toffoli throughout his career, and moving to a Devils team that tends to push the puck in the right direction should allow him to thrive on a Stanley Cup contender. With the Flames striving, unsuccessfully, to reach the postseason, Toffoli finished the year with 17 points (8 G, 9 A) and 54 shots on goal in the last 14 games. Joining a Devils squad that controls play will not be an adjustment for Toffoli, who almost always has the puck moving in the right direction, but it should give him plenty of chances to score. He may not match his career-best numbers, set in Calgary last season, but it would not be a surprise to see 65 points from Toffoli. Last season’s 73 points was easily his career high, but as recently as 2020-2021, he tallied 28 goals and 44 points in just 52 games for Montreal. With high-end centers in New Jersey, Toffoli is again in position to be a very productive scoring winger.

Dawson Mercer

After starting his NHL career as a center who could not win faceoffs, Mercer spent most of his second season on the wing and turned into a strong finisher. There is some risk that his goal scoring will not be sustainable, because his shooting percentage jumped to 16.8% last season, but he had a phenomenal run starting in mid-February when he scored 11 goals and 20 points with 43 shots on goal in a 12-game span. Suddenly, he was a game-breaking offensive threat and while that was not going to last, it helped secure Mercer a spot in a scoring role with the Devils. Since he is still just 21, that offensive development offers a glimpse of what Mercer might be able to accomplish in the future. When it comes to projections, then, Mercer ought to keep making progress, but with last season’s goal-scoring surge lifting his shooting percentage to 16.8%, it’s fair to expect some regression. A 25-goal, 50-point season is well within Mercer’s grasp, with room to climb higher if, for example, he ended up on Hughes’ wing on a regular basis.

Ondrej Palat

Although his first season in New Jersey was marred by injury, missing 33 games due to groin surgery, Palat remained an excellent defensive presence. While he is well compensated relative to his limited offensive output, Palat also brings 150 games of playoff experience, including having played an integral role on two Stanley Cup winners in Tampa Bay. In the past four seasons, Palat has skated in 83 playoff games to lead the National Hockey League. His 30 playoff goals in that time ranks third, behind Nathan MacKinnon and Brayden Point. For a Devils team that has rising young stars in the middle of the ice, bringing in veterans like Toffoli and Palat in recent seasons adds a measure of stability that can help this team reach the next level. Palat’s only 20-goal season was as a rookie, in 2013-2014, and he probably won’t get there in 2023-2024, but he could score 15 goals and 45 points in a full season.

Erik Haula

Acquired in a trade for Pavel Zacha, Haula had bounced around quite a bit before landing in New Jersey with his seventh NHL team. Following a strong season, in which he surpassed 40 points for the third time in his career, Haula earned a three-year contract with the Devils, which might offer a dose of stability. The 32-year-old has versatility in that he plays mostly at center but can shift to the wing as well and he can be used in a checking role or can contribute secondary scoring. He is not a star, but a quality complementary piece for a contending team. Haula started last season with one goal in the first 30 games, which was not sustainable, given the chances he was getting. He finished the season on a high, however. In 20 games after the trade deadline, Haula contributed nine goals and 14 points. That early-season slump contributed to Haula finishing with an 8.5% shooting percentage, notably below his career mark of 11.8%, which should limit any potential regression, so a 15-goal, 40-point season should still be within Haula’s range in 2023-2024.

Michael McLeod

While he is offensively limited for a player who was drafted 12^th overall in 2016, McLeod is establishing himself as a fast and physical checking center. He has scored just 10 goals in 157 games over the past two seasons but has delivered 272 hits while winning 58.9% of his faceoffs. If he could finish at a higher rate, then maybe he would have a chance to climb in the lineup but until then the 25-year-old is a reliable depth option. Although McLeod did score a couple of goals and had six points in the playoffs, his last regular season goal was on January 4th, and after the trade deadline, he had no goals and three assists in 20 games. Given his spot in the lineup, expectations are modest, but surely McLeod can give the Devils more than that. It would be hard for him to score on just 4.4% of his shots again, so some positive regression could be coming in McLeod’s direction. A few more goals and a point total in the 25-30 range is a fair expectation.

Nathan Bastian

A 25-year-old depth winger who has never had 20 points in an NHL season, Bastian could possibly offer more than what he has provided to this point in his career. He has the size of a legitimate power forward and plays a sound defensive game while also showing some capability in the offensive zone. He has played more than 50 games once in his career and has mostly been used in a limited fourth-line role, but there are some intriguing signs related to goal-scoring and physical play. With his physical presence, Bastian could carve out a more significant role. If he does that, maybe double-digit goals and 200-plus hits could be part of his contribution.

Defense

Dougie Hamilton

A rare talent on the blueline, Hamilton has finished in the top seven in Norris Trophy voting in three of the past four seasons, and he burst through for career highs of 22 goals and 74 points last season. A smooth skater at 6’ 6”, Hamilton covers so much space on the ice that he frequently jumps into the attack to give his team an advantage. His play away from the puck has slipped in recent seasons but not to the degree that it overshadows his significant offensive contributions. Since 2015-2016, Hamilton has scored 115 goals, ranking third among defensemen, behind Brent Burns and Roman Josi. While Hamilton was fine early in the season, in his last 57 games, he tallied 58 points (16 G, 42 A) with 188 shots on goal. He can be a difference maker, and even though Hamilton had never scored more than 50 points in a season prior to 2022-2023, he should have a reasonable shot at exceeding 60 points this season. The Devils have a lot of talent and Hamilton has found his groove in terms of style, being able to attack and take advantage of his considerable offensive gifts.

John Marino

Even though he managed a modest 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 64 games during his first season with the Devils, after being acquired from Pittsburgh, Marino established himself as an excellent top-four right-shot defender. A graceful skater, Marino might have more offensive upside, but is not likely to get significant offensive opportunities on a Devils blueline that boasts Hamilton and top prospects Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. As excellent as Marino was defensively last season, he was a liability offensively, which is fine. Not everybody has to be a scorer. But that means that Marino might contribute 20-25 points in a full season and that is not going to move the needle very much.

Jonas Siegenthaler

The Devils invested in Siegenthaler when they acquired him from Washington, and he has rewarded them by filling a top-four role on defense. He produced a career high 21 points last season, logging more than 20 minutes per game while recording more than 100 hits and 100 blocked shots. While Marino is more about finesse, Siegenthaler brings a sturdy presence, and his no-frills game has value even if it can get overlooked in the presence of flashier teammates. Like Marino, Siegenthaler’s value is more tied to his defensive contributions. Not only did Siegenthaler have an expected goals percentage of 55.2%, but the Devils outscored opponents by 20 goals (78-58) with Siegenthaler on the ice during five-on-five play. With his track record showing minimal offensive output and a relatively high on-ice shooting percentage (10.0 OiSH%) last season, it would be a little surprising if Siegenthaler even matched last season’s total of 21 points.

Goaltending

Vitek Vanecek

The New Jersey Devils have finally parted ways with MacKenzie Blackwood, with the relationship between Blackwood’s rookie performances and the remainder of his time between the pipes never quite lining up. But while Devils fans have become a bit gun-shy about jumping headfirst into their enthusiasm for goaltenders, Blackwood’s departure leaves the team with a goaltender in Vitek Vanecek that should soothe at least some skittish supporters for the coming year.

Vanecek had arrived in New Jersey as one-half of the prospect pairing that the Washington Capitals moved on from wholesale last summer, heading in-division following two years of inconsistent performances and battles for the number one gig with fellow prospect Ilya Samsonov. Vanecek, who had been the ‘spare’ to Samsonov’s heir apparent role in Washington, proved almost immediately that Devils fans are in good hands moving forward – so he’ll kick off the upcoming season as the consensus starter, likely shouldering the majority of the workload with Akira Schmid serving as his number two. Vanecek’s game had previously been characterized by concerns over his game reads and depth management, but he adopted a more conservative approach for the Devils that helped the Metro Division club make their triumphant return to the postseason. The incremental positioning errors he seemed to make in Washington looked to be all cleaned up last year – and if he can prove that wasn’t a fluke, he’ll be a valuable piece for the Devils in the coming years as they attempt to hold their championship window open.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS – A real test of talent vs. experience and coaching

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 02 May 2023 21:01:38 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 12: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) scores a goal during the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on March 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

Both teams won their first round series in somewhat unconventional fashion. The Devils overcame losing their first two games on home ice to take down the Rangers, making the bold switch to rookie Akira Schmid in goal. Carolina, meanwhile, took care of the Islanders in six games despite getting outscored at five-on-five. They played a close series, keeping the games tight and leaning on their power play when they needed to. Unfortunately, they’re also down another top-six forward after Teuvo Teravainen suffered a broken wrist in Game 2, which means their forward corps is in even more of an “all hands on deck” situation now.

They also took somewhat of a bold approach in goal, rolling with Antti Raanta for the first five games before making the switch to the oft-injured Frederik Andersen in the series clincher. The gamble paid off, as Andersen shut the door for Carolina in Game 6 and gave them an opportunity to complete their comeback. It makes an interesting decision for Game 1, but the Hurricanes have never been afraid to rotate goalies and this situation will be no different. That being said, this type of setup is easier in the regular season when it’s easier to shake off one loss and move on. Making the wrong call in a playoff series is obviously a different story, especially on a team like Carolina where scoring one goal is like trying to dig up gold in the mountains.

The second round has also been a common roadblock for Brind’Amour’s Canes, reaching this point the past two seasons and losing both times despite having the home ice advantage. The road for them is a little easier this year with the Rangers out and Boston going home in stunning fashion, but it’s actually tougher because the East is truly open season now. The Devils have spent years building up this talented core and look like they are ready to take the next step. Jack Hughes had a superstar caliber season, Nico Hischier will create matchup problems against a depleted forward corps and Dougie Hamilton is out to show Carolina he is a playoff performer and one they let get away.

The Devils also showed some real resilience in the first round. There are veterans on the roster, but it’s also this group’s first time in the playoffs in a while, or in their career in the case of Jack Hughes. There were some questions on if the moment was too big for them after dropping the first two games at home in blowout fashion. They responded by winning three straight and closing out the series in a dominant Game 7. It’s one thing to win, but to shutout a team that had you on the mat not even two weeks ago shows some real growth in how this team faces adversity. Carolina had a lot of moments like this early in their playoff career and it led them all the way to the Conference Final in Brind’Amour’s first year. The Devils are looking to go on a similar run.

The Matchup

In a normal situation, the big question around the Hurricanes is can they get enough goals, and will anybody step up when the games get tight? This series might be a little different because they’re going up against one of the most potent rush offenses in the NHL. The Devils are a team that carried the puck in at will all season and were one of the few teams in the playoffs who could do this in the first round. They scored a couple of big goals against the Rangers off controlled entries, including one in overtime and are capable of creating offense from a controlled breakout sequence. Dougie Hamilton and John Marino are very good at doing this and will usually give their forwards a great pass on the tape to help them break structure.

Heck of a rush from a standstill. pic.twitter.com/uoHHDxB1Uo

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) March 17, 2023

This should create problems for Carolina, but their defense is a little more robust than what they saw against the Rangers. Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns are more likely to get in your face and angle you off to the boards as opposed to Lindgren or Trouba who are going to shadow you into the zone and block shots. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce play more similar to the Rangers, using the “bend but don’t break” approach and will be the pair Jersey should target if they want to put Carolina in an open hole. This was a rock-solid duo for Carolina during the regular season but playing the tough matchups for 82 games takes a toll on you around this time of year. The number of hits they’ve taken looked like it started to add up in the Islanders series, as they were on the ice for six of the Isles 11 goals at five-on-five. The Devils might not have the scoring depth they did earlier in the season, but they can make this pair work a lot if they get a step on them at the blue line and create some tough situations for Carolina to defend. The saving grace for Carolina is their third pair is very mobile and capable of handling defensive minutes. Shayne Gostisbehere is still looking for his first power play point, but his play at five-on-five has been spectacular and gives Carolina an extra layer during the 3^rd/4^th line shifts.

As for where Carolina’s goals are going to come from, the answer is also their defense corps. They’ve always acted as more of a complement to the forwards, and this is even more true with the injuries Carolina has up front. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin were more active in the Isles series than they were all season (which is saying something for Burns) and you can look for them to catch New Jersey’s forwards out of position with how much attention they draw high in the zone. They’re also super aggressive with pinching to keep pucks in, which can go both ways with how much New Jersey loves to attack in transition. Counterattacks are what killed the Hurricanes against the Rangers last year and it’s something the Devils will go to school on. Hughes, Hischier, Meier all have the talent to make them pay on this and they also got some goals from their depth lines in the Rangers series. The more times they burn Carolina off counterattacks, the more risk-adverse and point-shot heavy the Hurricanes become, so planting the seed of doubt in their heads early will play a huge factor. Granted, this also involves some risk for the Devils with having the forwards challenge the points and fly the zone. It opens them up to more shots and chances against but that’s a risk you might be willing to take against Carolina.

The X Factor

Both teams managed to advance in the first round despite limited or no production from some of their top players. Timo Meier managed an astonishing zero points in 7 games despite leading the team in scoring chances and playing very well in the Rangers series. It’s only a matter of time until he starts to see some results, but the playoffs can be cruel. The Hurricanes style of defending can also be the best or the worst thing for him because they do not mind giving up chances from close-range as long as the shooter doesn’t have a lot of room to make a move. Meier specializes in going to the net and scoring on brute force, but these are generally lower-percentage plays compared to shots with movement and space. Something has to give.

As for the Hurricanes, they didn’t get much from their leading scorer Martin Necas, scoring only one power play goal all series and looking lost at five-on-five. If the series starts to open up to the Devils terms, Necas is the guy they need to make a difference and he (along with Jesperi Kotkaniemi) struggled with that in the first round. The Devils defensive structure might be a little easier to break than the Islanders physical style, but the playoffs have been tough for Necas in his career. This line in particular was Carolina’s worst against the Islanders, and they spent more time running around in their own zone instead of playing with the puck. When they did get the puck, it was often thrown away in the neutral zone or on a nothing play on the cycle. They showed some flashes of what makes them so dangerous in Game 1, so Carolina is hoping they can see some of this come to life because they will be needed with the Devils having the advantage in forward depth.

The Prediction

This is going to be a real test of talent vs. experience and coaching because the Devils have the clear advantage in the former. The latter is where Carolina can create an advantage. Lindy Ruff made a questionable lineup decision in scratching Jonas Siegenthaler after the Devils lost Game 1 against New York and the physical presence Carolina has could force them into more situations like that. When you’re undermanned, you have to make the most out of the tools you’re given. Carolina’s been able to do that so far, getting goals from the likes of Paul Stastny, Jesper Fast and Mackenzie MacEachern. Jersey should be licking their chops at the forward lines they can roll out against that group, but Carolina’s defensive play is enough to turn most games into a coin-flip. Even if they fall behind, they can own the boards and the territorial play enough to where it’s a tie or a one-goal game. Then it’s just a matter of who can score that big goal when it matters.

Carolina takes a couple gut-punches in this series but takes it in six.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: NEW YORK RANGERS VS. NEW JERSEY DEVILS – The team that controls the rush will win the series

Jesse Marshall — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 16:07:57 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 30: New York Rangers defenseman K'Andre Miller (79) skates with the puck during the National Hockey League game between the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils on March 30, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

For the first time since 2012, the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils will re-ignite their post-season animosities. That Eastern Conference Finals matchup seems like a lifetime ago, it's close to one. In this dance, it's the Rangers with the edge in experience as they look to forge their way further than they made it last season when the Tampa Bay Lightning knocked them off in six games, one step away from the Stanley Cup Final. On the other hand, the Devils are led by a group of core players that will be making their post-season debut. While the playoffs are certainly a different beast, you can't discount the dominance that some of the younger Devil forwards exhibited throughout the course of the year.

Let's jump into a few of the finer points of this matchup before making a series prediction.

Offensive Breakdown

Both of these teams can effectively attack off of the rush, but the Devils have made it a core tenet of what they do offensively. In fact, in the data Corey Sznajder has tracked in his All Three Zones project, no forward in the league has taken more shots off of the rush than the Devils' Jack Hughes, leading the way behind the philosophy boasted by the entire forward core. That, combined with the off-the-rush efficacy of the Devils top line featuring Tomas Tatar, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer, means the Devils take a significantly larger portion of their shots off of zone entry rushes than the Rangers do. This enables them to move the puck laterally in dangerous fashions that get talented goaltenders moving side-to-side and the puck moving into high-danger scoring chances. The Devils breakout is so often bolstered by their mobile defense that can get the puck up-ice quickly and join in the rush as a bit of a fourth forward. Defending those breaks are difficult and lead to a good amount of entries with possession per the data Corey is tracking.

The Rangers do most of their work off of the rush as well, but it hasn't born out the same kind of fruit as the Devils have experienced. Most notably, the Rangers have struggled to consistently find the net-front area in the offensive zone. As a result of those struggles, they grade out 22nd in the league with regards to their ability to generate quality scoring chances. The good news for the Rangers is the Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad combination has been wonderful regardless of who the third wheel is, and the third wheel just so happens to be Patrick Kane in this instance. The aforementioned duo of forwards spend upwards of 60-percent of their time in the offensive zone. Keep an eye on the Rangers stretch pass. With a quick group of forwards, they're able to break off of puck battles quickly to gain an edge on the opponent and sprint behind them for a deep bomb through the neutral zone that sends them off to the races.

The biggest mismatch here is the Devils 2nd line of newly acquired Timo Meier, Hughes, and Jesper Bratt versus the Rangers 2nd line of Artemi Panarin, Vince Trocheck, and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Defensive Breakdown - A Series Full of Puck Movers

These teams are a lot more even defensively than they are offensively, but I am still giving the advantage to the Devils here based on the quality of their depth.

On the Rangers side, Adam Fox is so good, teams are avoiding his side of the ice entirely when attempting to enter the offensive zone. In the games tracked via the All Three Zones project, Fox has been supremely successful at controlling zone entries from opponents in the limited opportunities he does see at even-strength. That means a great deal of testing has befallen his parter, Ryan Lindgren, and Lindgren has not found the same amount of success his partner has at preventing zone entries. The Fox and Lindgren pairing is the only pairing for the Rangers with more than 200 minutes at even-strength that has been able to keep its head above the 50% mark on expected-goal generation.

The Devils have a bit more of an even contribution with regards to quelling zone entries across the board. Kevin Bahl, John Marino, and Jonas Siegenthaler lead the way with regards to putting a stop to the opponents offensive attacks before they get started. The Devils overload approach to playing defense and their overall team speed give them a much better set of results in defending the net front area than the Rangers can boast. It's not by a significant margin, but it's one worth mentioning in this preview.

I mentioned that offensively both of these teams like to attack using the rush and, unfortunately, that isn't an area where the Rangers have been able to keep up with the Devils this year. I look for the Devils forwards to find space on zone entries and force some difficult situations as a result. The Rangers best bet will be to try and elongate their offensive zone possessions and keep the rush chances to a minimum.

Special Teams

I mentioned team speed as an important element of the Devils game and it drives their power-kill style of penalty-killing. That aggressive, up-tempo approach to annoying the opposing power-play quarterback into coughing the puck up as given them an 82.6-precent success rate this season, good for fourth in the NHL.That fourth-best ranking also extends to their ability to prevent shot-attempts and scoring chances as well. The Rangers trail that at 81.2-percent and play a much softer penalty-kill strategy than the Devils do, thusly allowing more in the way of zone entries and quality scoring chances. Keep an eye on Jacob Trouba for the Rangers penalty-kill, he is an underrated presence in preventing puck carriers the opportunity to enter the zone with possession of the puck.

On the power-play side, the Rangers boast the advantage at a 24.1-percent success rate. On the man-advantage, it's all about the work of Zibanejad. His cross-ice presence and roaming ability for the Rangers power-play has netted him 39 total power-play points this season as a complement to the great work Fox is doing carrying the mail. The Devils have only converted 21.9% and have scored just 49 power-play goals all season. That's the 12th lowest total in the league. They lack the ability to get to the front of the net that the Rangers boast, generating a great bit of their shot-attempts from the exterior of the offensive zone.

Goaltending

This is the area where the Rangers boast a distinct advantage, but is it enough to overcome all of the other advantages we've said the Devils hold in this series? The Devils haven't gotten poor goaltending from Vitek Vanecek this season. He turned in an 82 goals-against performance on 92.6 expected goals-against this season. It was a performance slightly better than expected. Igor Shesterkin allowed 102 goals, but it was on an 126.4 expected goals-against performance. He was significantly above the line with his results.

We also can't ignore the fact that Shesterkin is battle tested in the playoffs. This proves to be a huge advantage for the Rangers as he has the experience and ability to pull off another strong run this season, starting with this very series.

Prediction

I'm saying this will go seven games right out of the gate. Despite the advantages the Devils hold at even-strength, the Rangers are opportunistic, have a great power-play, and a distinct advantage in goaltending. That being said, there's a speed element here at work for the Devils in how they attack that I can't move beyond. I am taking the young, inexperienced Devils team to surprise the Rangers and create a number of systemic issues for them between the blue lines. Devils win this series in an arduous but entertaining seven games.

Data for this piece was obtained by:

Corey Sznajder - All Three Zones

NHL: MARSHALL – Devils in the Details: Inside New Jersey’s Potent Offensive Zone Schemes

Jesse Marshall — Thu, 10 Nov 2022 16:17:35 +0000

New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

If time and space are the most precious property for forwards in the National Hockey League, the New Jersey Devils are living in a luxurious, beach-front mansion. There's a gaudy infinity pool and everything is wrapped in 24-carat gold.

The Devils are generating quality shots and scoring chances better than any team in the league and have been for the better part of weeks. Lindy Ruff's system is an oppressive, suffocating form of hockey that demands a high level of skating and an attacking mindset to succeed. When executed correctly, especially in the offensive zone, it can be a confusing system for defenses to handle.

For a frame of reference into how this system has matriculated into pure results, consider the following team card from JFresh Hockey. It gives a digestible breakdown of New Jersey's relevant areas of success. This has been an all-you-can-eat buffet of quality looks at the net.

The Devils' ability to generate quality shots and chances has matriculated its way directly into the goals department. This isn't the result of an unsustainably high shooting percentage driven by magic and illusion. At 8.5 percent on the year at even strength, the Devils have the 15th-highest shooting percentage in the league. There's no secret sauce elevating their goal-scoring totals.

The foundation of the scoring pace for the Devils is the locations and shot types they're able to generate based on their offensive strategy. The main systematic drivers of their offense have allowed them to feast on high-quality looks in the slot and net front areas. These are critical areas of the offensive zone that traditionally produce a lot of goals.

If we consider the Devils' offensive output on a heatmap provided by HockeyViz.com we get a sense of just how drastic the offensive volume from the slot has been from these high-scoring areas. On the map, areas of red denote places on the ice where the Devils take an excess of shots relative to the league average. The darker the red, the more shots they take relative to the league. Blue indicates areas where fewer shots are relative to the league average.

In just over 600 minutes of even-strength ice time this season, the Devils are generating expected goals at a rate that is 25 percent in excess of the league average. That is a ridiculous total, even for a small sample size. What's more, consider the area where they're taking most of their shots on the map. They are making a living in between the circles. These areas of dark red indicate traditionally high-scoring areas. Every team in the league is working to access that area of the ice in some fashion.

So, how do the Devils pull this off? What allows Ruff's team these types of results out of their offensive zone time? I think this is a two-fold discussion that we'll lean on some video for in today's analysis.

To start, there's a complete blank check for defensemen to take opportunities in impacting the game. Whether this is from deep within the defensive zone off of a breakout or once possession is established in the offensive zone in cycling the puck, the Devils will turn their defensemen loose on the attack.

For instance, take a look at this clip that starts from deep within the Devil's zone. From the moment they establish possession, they have a defenseman joining the rush to support the play. John Marino, who has been an integral part of the Devils' hot start, kicks it into high gear to support the breakout. This ensures the Devils have multiple options in distributing the puck as they enter the zone.

Because Marino drives the play wide with speed, he backs the Capital's defense up directly into their own goaltender. The drive to the net from the forwards nets a goal from the exact area of dark red we saw on the HockeyViz map above.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NJWideTH.mp4

As we move through these clips, active defense is going to remain a consistent theme. But there's an additional layer I want to dive into. We know the Devils take a lot of shots from the slot and net-front areas, but this isn't by accident.

In order to attack the net, the Devils use the net. They run a lot of their offense from behind the goal line. This draws the defense in tight to their own goalie and forces their line of sight away from the high-danger scoring areas. When you have an active defense that is sneaking deep into the offensive zone and using the goal line as an office, you're putting a lot of burden on the opposing defense to have their head on a swivel.

Take a look at the next clip and notice how the Devils activate their defense and then use the goal line to create a high-quality scoring chance from the slot area.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NJDS.mp4

A stagnant offense doesn't fly in today's NHL. Utilizing this kind of movement prevents the defense from setting up and trying to dictate the pace of the game and play on their terms. In a world where defense is about keeping things to the perimeter and protecting the net front, the Devils are creating a whirlwind around these scoring areas thanks to some plays just like this one.

It's difficult to mark assignments in transition in the defensive zone, and the Devil's coaching staff has done a great job to create confusing circumstances for defenders via offense and defense transitioning on the cycle. Additionally, think about how hard it is as a defenseman to be aware of a passing threat below the goal line and a one-timer option in the slot at the same time.

We see a similar theme in this next clip. There's a blown assignment by Columbus here, but their recovery to that is made harder by the lack of awareness about who is in the slot due to the use of the area behind the net.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NJPOBehNet.mp4

Again, a lot of teams want to utilize the space behind the net. It can be a great base to set up your cycle in the offensive zone. The difference is in how the Devils use this space as opposed to other teams. Ruff's squad aims to use this space as a passing zone. The area in the corner boards below the goal line should be a direct lane for passing the puck into the slot in this system. By working below the goal line, the Devils are making it harder for their opponents to eat up traditional passing lanes. Remember, as we saw in the clips above, it is extremely hard to mark a passing option behind the net and cover someone in the slot simultaneously.

What you end up with is a chaotic symphony of puck movement. The defensemen are pinching in and out with the beat of the game, the pucks are slinging out from high-percentage passing lanes below the goal line, and defenses are struggling to keep up with the movement.

This next clip really sums up the situation. Watch how the defensemen pinch in to support the play and the best pass of the sequence is made from behind the net.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NJ2DAtt.mp4

The benefit here isn't just offensive in nature. The longer the shift lasts in the offensive zone due to a good cycle, the less time is spent playing defense on the other side of the ice. The Devils have been posting good results defensively, but it isn't just tied to their structure in their own zone. It's also a part of this strategy and the raw amount of time they spend on the front foot playing offense.

For a frame of reference on how this has impacted the team as a whole with regard to the individual contributors, consider where the Devils slot in against the rest of the league with regard to their ability to mitigate and generate expected goals.

This strategy has every member of the Devils establishing two-way dominance over the rest of the league.

Whether this is sustainable remains to be seen and I'd expect to see some level of separation here between the Devil's top and bottom lines before too long. That being said, you have to respect the process and foundation they've established here. They are using active defense and critical passing lanes to exploit opposing defenses and keep the puck in the offensive zone for extended periods of time.

Those aren't easy strategies to fight back against and with the roster composition boasted by the Devils this season, you're likely to see them lean on this solid foundation through the rest of the season.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:15:27 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 15: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) looks up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 15, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jack Hughes

A rising star, the first pick in the 2019 Draft, has been rapidly improving and busted out for 56 points in 49 games last season. Hughes had started generating chances but could not finish early in his career and as his shot improved, the point production followed. Extraordinary confidence is part of what makes Hughes special and is what should drive him to greater heights, but he also needs to get more durable as he matures. A dislocated shoulder and a knee injury contributed to Hughes missing 33 games last season, but the 21-year-old came out of the Christmas break and produced 48 points in his last 36 games. If the Devils are going to be a competitive team, some of that will come from riding Hughes’ development to stardom. A point-per-game over a full season is an entirely reasonable expectation and Hughes if one of the rare players who has 100-point upside.

Jesper Bratt

A 24-year-old who has provided phenomenal value as a sixth-round pick, busting out offensively last season for 73 points in 76 games. Bratt is a consistent offensive threat, and his results last season were outstanding – his 2.90 points per 60 minutes ranked 17^th and his 1.22 goals per 60 minutes ranked 39^th. This production does not come by accident. Bratt has excellent anticipation and is strong on the puck in the offensive zone, equally adept at setting up plays or burying the puck in the back of the net. Bratt’s shooting percentage has varied significantly (13.0%, 8.8.%, 15.8%, 6.9%, 13.2% in his five NHL seasons) so that will play a role in setting expectations for his 2022-2023 season. The trend would be for it to fall this season so 60 points would be a reasonable low-end but a point per game over a full season is not out of range, either.

Nico Hischier

The Devils’ 23-year-old captain broke through for a career high 60 points last season, but he is known as much for his strong two-way play and that reliability makes him a strong complement to Hughes down the middle of the ice. Hischier could be more aggressive as a shooter, but his overall skill and defensive conscience makes him more valuable than might be widely known and his confidence with the puck is growing, which allows him to control the puck more effectively in traffic. That defensive conscience means that Hischier will get more difficult checking assignments and start more shifts in the defensive zone, so he is not deployed as favorably as Hughes, but that makes sense. Hughes has the higher offensive ceiling and Hischier can play the 200-foot game. Staying healthy has been an issue for Hischier, as he has missed at least a dozen games in each of the past four seasons. He might be able to match or surpass last season’s 60 points but that will be dependent on whether he can stay in the lineup.

Ondrej Palat

Consistent and dependable throughout his career with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which included playing a prominent role on two Stanley Cup champions, the 31-year-old winger has finished with at least 40 points in seven of his nine NHL seasons. As a proven performer who has played tough minutes, Palat will be a big help to the Devils’ young forward core. He won’t be fazed by any high-pressure situations and if he plays with Hughes, a 50-point season would be within Palat’s grasp, maybe a little lower if he skates on Hischier’s wing. While Palat was overshadowed at times by the stars in Tampa Bay, he also rose to the occasion in the playoffs, scoring 27 goals in 71 playoff games over the past three seasons. If the Devils can get to the postseason, it would be nice to have someone like Palat, who knows what to do when they get there.

Dawson Mercer

A promising rookie season ended with Mercer tallying 42 points in 82 games, though he managed just one goal in the last 11 games of the season. Mercer played a good portion of his rookie season at center, and won just 35.4% of his faceoffs, but moved to the wing and, despite his late-season slump, that should allow him more offensive freedom because he has good vision and should thrive with skilled linemates. If that means skating on Jack Hughes’ wing, that’s a pretty good place for a second year forward looking to break out offensively. As a young player, Mercer offers a higher degree of potential variance when forecasting his point totals for this season. Some improvement on his rookie season, maybe to around 50 points, would be a quality step forward, but if he is a really good fit in that spot, maybe he could score even more.

Yegor Sharangovich

After a strong finish to his rookie season and a quality sophomore campaign, the 23-year-old winger has put up 31 goals in his past 90 games, and his 1.11 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time last season had him scoring at the same rate as Evgeni Malkin and Tomas Hertl. Sharangovich has a quick release and goes hard to the net, so his opportunities to score are based on positioning, anticipation, and then linemates that do a good job feeding him the puck in scoring position. Sharangovich deserves credit for putting himself in good positions to score and the 24-year-old should be expected to contribute 25 goals and 45-50 points.

Tomas Tatar

A heady veteran winger, Tatar struggled in his first season with the Devils, producing 30 points in 76 games, the lowest per-game scoring rate of his career, thanks in part to an 11-game scoreless drought in the middle of the season. The 31-year-old is still a solid play driving winger, and that can’t be ignored, but for a Devils team that sorely needed contributions from skilled wingers, Tatar’s performance was disappointing. He can still fill a complementary role and the opportunity should still be there for him to produce, maybe not like his best years in Montreal, but better than last season. Taking into account that Tatar has recorded three seasons with more than 55 points, counting on more than 40 points this season would appear to be entirely reasonable.

Erik Haula

Getting traded to New Jersey lands Haula with the seventh team of his career and comes after he scored 18 goals and 44 points for the Bruins last season, both the second highest totals of his career. He had a strong finish to the season, with 10 goals and 19 points in his last 19 games. Haula also recorded a career-high 129 hits, and the ability to provide secondary scoring as well as play with a bit of an edge makes him a nice fit in a third-line center role for the Devils. Last season was one of Haula’s best seasons so it would be optimistic to count on that production again. If he stays healthy, though, 35 points would be an achievable target for the veteran forward.

Andreas Johnsson

Although the 27-year-old winger contributed 35 points last season and it seems like he is still going to be battling for ice tme, Johnsson has enough speed and skill to play a complementary role on a scoring line. His instincts are decent but his play without the puck needs improvement and that could prevent him from handling a bigger role, especially now that the Devils have improved forward depth. That uncertainty over Johnsson’s role on the team tempers any expectations for his production, so a total around the 35 points that he produced last season should be a fair baseline for expectations, with room for variance in either direction.

DEFENSE

Dougie Hamilton

A prized free agent signing a year ago, Hamilton is a rare talent, a smooth skating 6-foot-6 right shot defenseman. Although he had just nine goals last season, Hamilton averaged more than three shots on goal per game for the fifth straight season. He gets hammered by accusations of being soft and it doesn’t help matters if his defensive performance slips, as it did in his first season with the Devils, but Hamilton is typically an elite offensive defenseman whose puck-moving ability tends to offset anything that he gives back on the defensive end. Injuries have caught up to Hamilton in two of the past three seasons, but he was very durable before that, so if he is relatively healthy this season, he should be relied upon to score at least a dozen goals and 45-50 points, with potential to go significantly higher. In his last two seasons with Carolina, for example, Hamilton put up 82 points in 102 games.

Damon Severson

A 28-year-old right shot defenseman who just put up a career-high 46 points last season, Severson is a potential free agent in the summer of 2023. The Devils typically get better results with Severson on the ice, at least in terms of shots, but he has yet to have a season in the NHL in which his team outscores the opposition during 5-on-5 play. Severson has been very durable, and in a contract year should be poised for significant production, in the range of 40 points, maybe a little more.

Ryan Graves

Even though Graves is 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, he is not an especially physical option on the blueline, but he is a steady top-four defenseman and that matters a lot for a team that is seeking a path to credibility. His ice time has climbed steadily since he arrived in the league, reaching a career-high 20:43 time on ice per game last season. Graves recorded a career-high 28 points last season and with 135 hits, he did fill the stat sheet a little bit. Scoring is not necessarily going to drive Graves’ value, but he ought to be capable of 25 points and then add to that with hits and blocked shots to make him worth considering in deep leagues.

John Marino

Acquired in a trade that sent Ty Smith to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Marino is a strong skater and capable puck handler who gets the breakout started with a quality first pass but is not much of a factor in terms of physical play. At the same time, he is particularly adept at defending the blueline, and that reliability should make him a valuable contributor in New Jersey. Unless he seizes a bigger role than anticipated, Marino will likely produce 25-30 points this season and without significant peripheral stats, that will serve to limit his fantasy appeal.

GOALTENDING

Mackenzie Blackwood

The New Jersey Devils are growing dangerously close to turning Mackenzie Blackwood into the next John Gibson; after debuting at the NHL level with an impressive game and an admirable confidence level, he’s struggled more and more behind the lottery-dwelling New Jersey lineup each season. This past year was perhaps the worst of all; plagued by a lingering heel injury that left him ginger in the crease and slow to move, Blackwood was limited to just 25 games all year and spent months at a stretch on the team’s long-term injured reserve list.

The club gave very little information regarding what exactly was nagging at Blackwood, so it’s hard to get a read on just what kind of a timetable he’ll need to return to full form. With everything from calcaneal fractures to achilles damage and plantar fasciitis up for grabs as possible problems the goaltender could have faced, the Devils could have Blackwood back at his best as soon as the year begins, or they could be looking at a lengthy return-to-form timeline for the formerly-established number one. The good news is that the team brought Vitek Vanecek in to ease the workload, offering both a younger source of reinforcement (therefore one less likely to get hampered by wear and tear issues) and a goaltender who has more promise to remain a legitimate tandem option than some of the major-minor tweeners the team has tried to deploy in the last few years. There’s less pressure for Blackwood to play through health-related troubles with Vanecek sitting on the bench than there was with backups like Keith Kinkaid and Jon Gillies, which should hopefully ease some of the pressure he faced and allow him to perform at peak capacity. That’s good news for fans – because when he was at full strength, Blackwood’s game forced shooters to show their hands and come to him in a way that made him hard to trick and overthrow.

Projected starts: 55-60

Vitek Vanecek

Washington fans likely hadn’t predicted that they’d spend their 2021-22 season hotly debating whether the team was in better hands with heir apparent Ilya Samsonov or fellow draft-and-developee Vitek Vanecek. And worse, they likely hadn’t predicted that they’d be debating it so hotly not because both goaltenders were doing so well, but because both were continuing to struggle so consistently.

The lukewarm outcome of their year left the Capitals opting to cut ties with both of their starters this summer, though, and New Jersey was one of the two teams that decided to step in and offer their services to attempt a reclamation project. They’ll enter their 2022-23 campaign hoping that Vanecek, who fell shy of recording quality starts in over half his games last year, can bounce back and offer some consistent support behind MacKenzie Blackwood. There’s a hope that the addition of some experience in Blackwood will give Vanecek some direction, and that taking some of the pressure off should enable him to take a step back and tighten back up some of his game moving forward. But it’s hard to really figure out just how much of Vanecek’s game was growing pains, and how much was struggles to read the plays happening in front of him; while he didn’t get quite as goaded into oversliding and shifting out of the net as Samsonov did behind the Washington defense, his issues in coverage had more to do with missed positioning and inconsistent work with his hands. His missed goals came in inches, which make it harder to discern how many were mistakes and how many were simply the result of getting set and positioned off-angle from where he really needed to be.

Projected starts: 25-30

Pittsburgh Penguins 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 13:03:53 +0000

The worst systems in the game usually are handicapped by a combination of a shortage of picks and a pronounced shortage of high end picks. Those teams are often perennial contenders and had traded those picks – and sometimes players who still retain the sheen of youthful promise – in exchange for players that are more able to assist in the present need to fortify a contender. In other words, they abide by the maxim that a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

The Penguins most definitely meet both problems head on. The last time they had their full complement of seven picks was back in 2012. In the seven ensuing drafts, they have only made a pick on day one twice. One of those first rounders was made just this year, as the Penguins added a big-bodied, mature power winger in Samuel Poulin. The other first round pick Pittsburgh made in that span, Kasperi Kapanen, selected with the 22^nd pick in 2014, was traded to Toronto in the Phil Kessel trade, before he ever suited up in Pittsburgh.

Outside of those two first rounders, likely the most skilled player selected by Pittsburgh in the past seven drafts was the Dutch Dangler, Daniel Sprong. The skilled winger did play in 42 NHL games for the Penguins, before he, too, was sent away, shipped to Anaheim in a one for one deal for blueliner Marcus Pettersson. In fairness to GM Jim Rutherford and company, Sprong wasn’t traded so much for a veteran, as Pettersson was also very young, as much as they deemed Pettersson to be a better fit on the main squad than Sprong. Pettersson actually equaled Sprong’s rest of season point totals, albeit in ten additional games. For a defenseman deemed a stay-at-home type though, neither the Penguins not their supporters should be dismayed by the sell off of one of their top young talents.

Other Penguins’ draft picks of recent vintage who have played at least 100 NHL games, but are long out of the Pittsburgh system include Derrick Pouliot, and Stanley Cup champ Oscar Sundqvist. On the other hand, in the past seven drafts, the only current NHL Penguins are Jake Guentzel and Dominik Simon. Even on a winning team, you would expect a better hit rate than that.

One other way that the Penguins may be hampering their draft and development efforts is by how limited their selection pool is. The draft (and sign) extensively from the QMJHL, the WHL, the college bound ranks and Finland, but ignore Russia – the only player drafted out of Russia since the selection of Malkin was netminder Alexander Pechursky in 2008, and the OHL – only two Ontario based picks in the last seven years, neither of whom was ever offered an ELC.

For as heavily as the Penguins supplement their prospect base with undrafted free agents, four of whom grace the list below, there is a distinct lack of upside in any of them, and in fact, in the system as a whole. Even if the team hopes to remain a top competitor in perpetuity, they will need to change their approach to player acquisition to continue to surround Crosby and Malkin with suitable teammates.

-Ryan Wagman

CRANBERRY, PA - JUNE 28: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospect Forward Samuel Poulin (18) during the Pittsburgh Penguins Development Camp 3-on-3 Tournament on June 28, 2019 at the UPMC Lemieux Sports Complex in Cranberry, PA. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)

1 Samuel Poulin, RW (21^st overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) One of the more complete players in the draft this past June, and one of the more pro-ready players, Poulin has many qualities NHL coaches will love right out of the box. Poulin is the son of former NHLer Patrick, and his hockey sense proves that. His ability to shoot or pass with equal aplomb and his abilities to use his teammates are all at a high level. His defensive play on the backcheck and in transition is noteworthy. His skating is strong, especially his balance, as he can anchor himself along the wall under pressure. He plays a two-way game, does not skip on the details and can carry a team on his back, like his Sherbrooke team in the playoffs with 14 points in 10 games. Poulin will be a strong winger who can play all situations and be a reliable two-way threat for a long time. - MS

2 Calen Addison, D (53^rd overall, 2018. Last Year: 2) Addison is a dynamic offensive weapon from the back end. He has a great ability to generate offense and push the pace of play with his skating and knack for jumping into the rush. Back-to-back 65 point seasons have shown that he has the puck skills and vision to make key offensive plays. Defensively he gets in trouble once the puck is in his own zone. He rarely kills penalties, or is on for key defensive zone draws, he can be physically overmatched and struggles to protect the front of the net or break up the cycle game. If the Penguins are patient with him he could develop like Tory Krug, a powerplay specialist and on a 3rd pairing at even strength until he is better prepared to handle tougher assignments. - VG

3 Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D (23^rd overall, 2017 [Arizona]. Last Year: 4 [Arizona]) The former Charlottetown Islanders captain has seen his game grow leaps and bounds since he joined the QMJHL in 2015-16. Joseph’s best two assets are his work ethic and his hockey sense. He rarely makes a bad decision and, most importantly, knows his limitations. He has blossomed into a leader by both his words and his example, and his effort is contagious for other players. He is slight for the pro game at 168 pounds, but he is as adept at defending positionally as he is physically, and has figured out how to read many schemes with the puck to best attack from the back end. He is poised and strong at moving the puck and patient to allow the defense to open up to his benefit. While he may not have any truly elite traits, he does not have many weaknesses. He is a future solid, dependable, middle-pair blueliner. - MS

4 Filip Hallander, C (58^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 3) Hallander is starting to look like a good second round pick, not Jake Guentzel-in-the-third good, but good. The 18 year-old played his first season in the SHL and was one of the best forwards on his team. He is a smart power forward with nice hands and skills. He works hard in all three zones and reads a forecheck very well. When he creates scoring chances, he often does so through winning the puck over for his team and going hard to the net. The knock on him so far is that he hasn’t got any tools that are elite other than his compete level and forechecking. The skating, shot, and puck skills are slightly above average, but non are elite. As a future NHLer he isn’t an elite producer, but he can play and contribute in various roles. He is strong on the PK and around the net on a power play. Next season he will play in SHL again. - JH

5 Nathan Legare, RW (74^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Légaré has the shot to become a sniper at the NHL level. 45 goals as a draft-eligible player in any league is impressive, and the fact that his goal totals jumped from 10 to 45 made it even more impressive. He was a triggerman on a strong Baie-Comeau powerplay and can hammer a one-timer swiftly to the net. Having said that, many of his goals are scored in front of the net off rebounds or small set-ups, using his superior size and strength at the QMJHL level. His hockey sense and physicality is strong, but his skating holds him back. He knows where to go, but often gets there late, and is more effective in zone set-plays rather than off the rush. His agility, edgework and acceleration all need work. For this reason, it is hard to project his impact going forward, but his shot is impossible to deny. - MS

6 Jordy Bellerive, C (Undrafted free agent, signed Sep. 16, 2017. Last Year: 11) Bellerive is a player who can play the game in any style. He is happy to drive the net and work hard to create his offense but he has a shot that can beat goalies cleanly from distance. He works his tail off in both zones and often generates additional chances from chasing down the play. He makes good passes both in transition and below the dots. He camps out around the net and will take a beating to make a play. He has good puck skills in tight where he makes subtle plays that catch defenses off-guard. He may never reach beyond a third line player at the pro level but his effort is consistent enough that he could excel in that role. - VG

7 Emil Larmi, G (Undrafted free agent, signed Jun. 2, 2019. Last Year: IE) Larmi put together three strong seasons for HPK in the Liiga including a championship win in 2019 before signing an entry-level contract with the Penguins. He is a competitive goalie with great reflexes and the ability to make highly athletic saves. He plays an aggressive and intense style in net. He likes to challenge shooters to cut down angles and he is very effective in doing so. He is mentally strong, remains unrattled even when allowing a soft goal and can bounce back quickly. Larmi's positioning can be a slight issue at times, but his athleticism and quickness help him quite a bit on those occasions. It remains to be seen how he adapts to the North American game, but the 1996 born netminder has definitely shown NHL potential. -MB

8 Kasper Bjorkqvist, RW (61^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 6) While Bjorkqvist has progressed nicely in his three years in North America, increasing his point totals from 9 to 23 to 30 with NCAA Providence, the versatile Finnish winger enters the pro ranks with rawness and inconsistency still running through his game. He uses his solid size to play near the opposing crease and has a plan for the puck when he gets it, resulting in quick touches and quickly released shots. At his best, he has a nice shot an can play or pass the puck well, but he can go for prolonged stretches at less than his best, effectively becoming a non-factor in the play. He is also not as aggressive as his strength would allow. He will need some time to continue developing in the AHL, but if he can play a more steady game, he could find a home as a bottom six winger in the NHL within two years. - RW

9 Judd Caulfield, RW (145^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) The fact that their fifth round pick from the most recent draft ranks ninth in this system – and no one has claimed him to a steal, either on draft day or in the weeks since – is another point of concern for the Pittsburgh system. Caulfield is a heart and soul player, a big winger with good speed and surprisingly deft hands, although lacking in the overall game or creativity to turn those hands into weapons with any frequency. He has a heavy side and can be a penalty kill asset, but is definitely more of a supporting piece than the type who can drive a line or force an opposing team to game plan around him. Heading to play for his home town University of North Dakota, he has a ways to go to reach his third line upside. - RW

10 Justin Almeida, C/LW (129^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 12) Almeida is an undersized forward with excellent playmaking skills. He is a pass first player that can hold onto the puck for an extra second, creating spacing for his teammates and his passes. His skating is OK, but for a smaller guy you would like him to have better breakaway speed. Where his speed is noticeable is in how quickly he can process what to do with the puck. His shot is very accurate even though it lacks in power. He often seems like he will have a long, successful offensive career at the AHL level, and in the right situation could find top six minutes in the NHL one day. - VG

11 Anthony Angello, C (145^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 4) In his first professional season, Angello fared well applying his NCAA experience to the AHL. He is a massive forward who plays an equally strong and physical game. By managing 29 points last season, he proved that he was a good fit for Wilkes-Barre and also ensured he would not be looked over in the Penguins ranks. Angello has the hands to match his size which makes him a difficult opponent, however he would be even more threatening if he were that much faster. His general speed is not what is hurting his chances but rather his reaction time and the missing jump to his game. Saying that his large frame is the cause for the missing spark in his stride is not good enough when a player comparable in size such as Colton Parayko seems to have little problem with speed. Angello will have to push harder and find a higher gear if he wants a chance at cracking the bottom six. - SC

12 Teddy Blugers, C (52^nd overall, 2012. Last Year: 7) Blugers is set to start his next professional season up with the Pittsburgh Penguins which is well deserved. He is a naturally skilled forward whose game is nothing special but fast paced and efficient enough to get the job done. His shot and quick release make him especially deadly when given the puck in a scoring position as he can adapt quickly to get quality scoring chances. Blugers needs to make sure to keep his feet moving in the corners and not rely so much on teammates to do his dirty work below the goal line. If he can up the pace of his aggressive play in all areas of the ice to match the NHL pace then he will stand a better chance at earning a bottom six roll with the Penguins next season and into the future. - SC

13 Jan Drozg, LW/RW (152^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: 15) Drozg is more ready-now than most on this list in terms of joining the pro ranks. He isn’t that physical but he has great balance and is not afraid to carry the puck into danger zones and take abuse. He can be a buzz saw in pursuit of the puck, and can pass quickly and accurately, including cross-zone and stretch passing. His playmaking skills are very strong, as is his hockey sense offensively. His defensive game is adequate, and his skating is fine, but both will need to improve to have an effect at the NHL level. Drozg’s play elevates with the stature of the game, and he will be a feature for Team Slovenia as long as he wants to be, but his deficiencies will need to improve to become a secondary scoring option at the NHL level. - MS

14 Niclas Almari, D (151^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 9) Almari was part of the gold-winning HPK team in the Liiga and showed stable improvement in many aspects of the game this past season. The Penguins fifth round pick is mobile and skates well backwards. He can move the puck well and start offensive transitions with long-range passes. He has good offensive vision and puck skills. That all said, there are some question marks around his game. In juniors, Almari displayed decent offensive abilities and potential but he hasn't been able to make a similar impact at the pro level. He plays a solid, yet unspectacular game at both ends of the ice, without much flash or physicality. He could end up being a third-pairing NHL defenseman at best, unless he makes major strides in his game in the coming years. - MB

15 Sam Miletic, LW/C (Undrafted free agent, signed Sep. 25, 2017. Last Year: 10) Miletic had a good transition into the AHL with 35 points in 49 games and only 14 penalty minutes. He is a good offensive player whose speed helps him stand out from other players. His strong skating helps propel him to the net and with his strength he drives the net with ease and can easily lead a breakout. Whereas he was able to regroup with time and space to quarterback breakouts at the major junior level, at the professional level breakout execution time is a lot more limited, leading to more turnovers, and he will need to adapt to the fast pace better in order to not fall behind the play. Miletic will most likely settle into a top six spot next season with Wilkes-Barre and that should improve his play enough to get to a similar role with the Pens down the line. - SC

16 Adam Johnson, LW (Undrafted free agent, signed Jul. 6, 2017. Last Year: 20) Johnson is a nifty offensive player with slick hands and nasty pickpocketing ability. He is skilled and can adapt to playing with various lines. As his scoring pedigree in both the NCAA and USHL show, his ability to read the play and alternate between being the shooter or the playmaker has improved greatly. The only somewhat underdeveloped part of his game is his two-way play and defensive end coverage. In the meantime, Johnson will have to touch up his play in the defensive end and work on his awareness in his own zone. He has what it takes to make the NHL squad and to play at the highest level but he may not yet be ready for a permanent spot in the bottom six. The Penguins have tough competition for their forward roster and he will have to continue to put up points and work hard to cement his spot. - SC

17 Sam Lafferty, C (113^th overall, 2014. Last Year: Not ranked) Lafferty is an enjoyable player to watch, especially as he never takes a shift off and wins a fair percentage of the draws he takes. Last season with Wilkes-Barre he did well putting up 49 points in 70 games and stepping up to stand out amongst a rather average team. He is a good playmaker and a good passer, and his creativity will certainly be a contributing factor to his success at a higher level. Although Lafferty is a great passer he could do well at shooting more and being a little more selfish with the puck to prove himself as an even greater offensive threat. He has a lot of potential at clocking a bottom six spot in the NHL and even growing from there, as his work ethic and his outside the box way of thinking will certainly get him to the next level. - SC

18 Santeri Airola, D (211^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Airola had an impressive season for SaiPa U20 and showed promise with the U19 national team as well. The smallish right0-shot defenseman is offensively gifted and skates very well. He can travel with the puck through the neutral zone as his hands enable him to keep up with his quick feet. He is agile, shifty on his skates, and can accelerate quickly from a standstill. Airola has many attributes that make him a good power play quarterback for a junior player: poise, mobility, and distribution skills. He is not afraid to take responsibility on the ice either. He needs to work on his defensive game, particularly to become more assertive in his own zone and improve his angling. He is a late bloomer whose development is trending upwards, yet he is still, at this point, a long shot to make it to the NHL. - MB

19 John Marino, D (154^th overall, 2015 [Edmonton]. Last Year: 10 [Edmonton]) Four years after the Edmonton Oilers took Marino in the sixth round, Pittsburgh sent a future sixth rounder to Central Alberta for his rights, and immediately signed him to an ELC. While Marino was a two way threat in his junior level days, he has evolved into more of an own-zone specialist over three years at Harvard. He has decent size, but is rather strong and rangy and plays a physical game. He reads the play well and plays instinctively. He lacks the offensive elements to his game to profile as more than a third pairing defender who could get some time on the PK, but that’s pretty good value for the sixth round. - RW

20 Ryan Jones, D (121^st overall, 2016. Last Year: 18) Drafted in his third year of draft eligibility, Jones had parlayed a strong second season with the Lincoln Stars of the USHL to a spot on the NHL radar. While he hasn’t been that bad with Nebraska-Omaha over three seasons, he is strongly suggesting that his draft year performance was more a matter of an older player beating up on younger kids than a true breakthrough. He is a tough blueliner with some capability of nullifying opponents in his own zone, but his offensive contributions are somewhat meagre, leaving his upside as a sixth or seventh defender at the highest level. Barring a last minute change of heart by Pittsburgh, he will be returning to Omaha for his senior season, and his last chance of earning an NHL contract. - RW

Dropping the puck on the 2018-19 NCAA season – Part 1 – Atlantic 10, WCHA, ECAC

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 23 Oct 2018 11:25:24 +0000

Don’t call it a preview. The NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey slate technically kicked off in the last weekend of September with the beginning of the annual set of exhibition games between American schools and Canadian ones as Simon Fraser (the only Canadian school to hand out athletic scholarships) went up to Alaska to play one each against Fairbanks and Anchorage.

In 36 total exhibition games played between NCAA schools and their north-of-the-border equivalents, mostly stocked with CHL graduates, the American schools only lost four times, with one draw, coming out victorious 31 times.

There are currently 60 schools participating in Division I Men’s Ice Hockey, and the majority have taken their first few tentative steps toward a hopeful berth in the year ending Frozen Four, this year set to take place in Buffalo, New York, after four regionals in Providence, Rhode Island, Manchester, New Hampshire, Fargo, North Dakota, and Allentown, Pennsylvania.

The clearest way to run through the level is conference by conference, of which there are six, but in fairness, a word should be spared for the sole independent school, Arizona State, which has not been able to find a suitable conference home since joining the top flight of the collegiate ranks in time for the 2015-16 season. In three seasons, the Sun Devils have won 23 games out of the 95 they played. As impressive as their four wins in their first six games of the new season is, they have come against Alaska-Fairbanks and Alabama-Huntsville, not exactly powerhouses in their own rights either. To their credit, they played well in losing a set against Ohio State, and goaltender Joel D’Accord, an Ottawa draft pick has been spectacular, with a .956 save percentage playing every minute. ASU may be improved but they are still far from a regional threat.

Atlantic 10

The A10 is both the only conference to have started inter-conference games in earnest, and the only conference that can be generally overlooked from a scouting perspective, at least as far as future NHLers are concerned. Of the 194 NHL drafted players currently suiting up for NCAA teams, only three play for A10 schools and there is a good chance that none of the three ever signs an NHL contract. Robert Morris is usually a good bet to compete for the conference’s automatic NCAA entry, but Mercyhurst is worth a look this year, if their early-season, non-conference games are any indications, as they include an exciting 6-6 tie against powerhouse Notre Dame, as well as a victory over Ferris State. If there is a dark horse candidate to have NHL teams sniffing around, keep tabs on Dylan McLaughlin, a senior center with Canisius. He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award last year after putting up 48 points in 37 games and has six in his first four games of the new season.

Western Collegiate Hockey Association

Although not quite as overlooked as the A10, the WCHA is no longer a collegiate powerhouse conference, as the formation of the NCHC has left the once-feared conference lacking in world beaters. The conference is currently home to only seven NHL drafted players, but there are usually a few more every year who garner NHL interest and a number of others who wind up playing on AHL deals after graduation. Of the ten teams in the WCHA, we can almost dismiss out of hand the two Alaskan members, as Fairbanks and Anchorage are hamstrung by insane travel schedules and lack much in the way of impact talent. We can also skip over Alabama-Huntsville, which has not had a winning season since 2005-06 and has lost its top two scorers from last year to graduation.

In the uninspiring middle, we find schools such as Lake Superior State, Ferris State, Northern Michigan, and Bemidji State. LSS has fallen a long way from the near dynasty that claimed three NCAA titles between 1988-1994 and has been among the weakest teams in the country over the last four years. They will need big years from Latvian netminder Mareks Mitens and senior forward Diego Cuglietta to have a chance. Ferris State has been known to have the odd big year of late, and have a few interesting players on the roster, including Boston draft pick Cam Clarke, and captain Corey Mackin, an undersized point producer. Northern Michigan rarely gets much press, but they quietly put up a very good year last year and have some impact forwards returning, including Darien Craighead and Adam Rockwood. Keep an eye on tiny freshman Griffin Loughran, who was a key contributor with USHL champions Fargo last year. Bemidji State is similarly unheralded, although with a veteran roster including returns from three of their top five scorers from last year, could be strong, even without any NHL prospects of note.

Michigan Tech was a surprise NCAA tournament team last year and could make noise again. They start a pair of senior forwards in Jake Jackson and Jake Lucchini, the former of which is a Sharks draft pick. Minnesota State (Mankato) was the top team in the conference last year, but have lost two of their better players to the NHL. There are still a number of good college players on the roster who should keep the Mavericks competitive, including Parker Tuomie, Marc Michaelis, Reggie Lutz, Jake Jaremko, and others. With decent goaltending, they could top the conference once again. That said, the favorite going into the year should be Bowling Green State. The only team in the WCHA with more than one drafted player, the Falcons have three, between start netminder Ryan Bednard (Florida), defenseman Adam Smith (Nashville) and winger Brandon Kruse (Vegas). Sophomore Max Johnson also seems primed for a big year. The team has youth and offensive depth to challenge any team in the conference.

Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference

As is typical, the ECAC lets the rest of the college hockey world get started before they drop the puck, with murmurs of academic integrity among the conference’s Ivy League schools the typical explanation. Only five of the 12 schools have played regular season games so far. Let us hand wave away the chances of RPI and St. Lawrence, the former of which has won only 14 games combined over the past two years. Their most interesting player is Penguins’ draft pick Will Reilly, an offensive defenseman. St. Lawrence has been good in the recent past, but the bottom fell out last year (8-27-2) and they seem to lack the horses to turn that around too much. Blueliner Bo Hanson earned some attention in his USHL days, and 6-8” Keenan Suthers struggled to assert himself in his time in the USNTDP or as a freshman, but has started strong this year. Dartmouth could be mildly interesting, if not a true contender, what with most of their top scorers returning. I am most curious to see if big Will Graber could take the team on his broad shoulders. He will be supported by Shane Sellar and Quin Foreman. Another Ivy League dark horse is Brown, which has not surpassed eight wins in a season since 2013-14. They have some interesting recruits arriving for the 2019-20 season, but for now will be reliant on co-captains Tom Marchin, and Max Gottlieb to spearhead the attack. The back half of the conference should be completed with Colgate and Yale. Colgate was a surprise competitor last season behind the goaltending of Colton Point, but he is now in the Dallas system. AJHL alumnus Mitchel Benson is the new netminder in town and the offense seems to have a “by-committee” construct. Yale has a lot of talent on the team, including four drafted players, but lacks much in the way of offensive experience after returning leading scorer Joe Snively. Between Phil Kemp (Edmonton) and Jack St. Ivany (Philadelphia), their blueline will be worth watching.

Despite losing top defenders Terence Amorosa and Kelly Summers to graduation and speedy forward Sheldon Rempal early to LA, Clarkson returns enough talent to threaten in the ECAC again. Netminder Jake Kielly has been a workhorse since first stepping foot on campus. The offensive attack will be led by the returning trio of captain Devin Brosseau, tiny sophomore Jack Jacome, and big German Nico Sturm. Among the prized newcomers are included Nick Campoli (Vegas) and big Josh Dunne, whose game I liked in the USHL. Union shocked the hockey world by winning the NCAA title in 2013-14, led by Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Carr, Mike Vecchione, and others. Those days are long gone, but this team still attracts a fine standard of player. Cole Maier has matured into a leading player, while fellow senior Brett Supinski has been a top scorer since first stepping foot on campus. San Jose draft pick Jake Kupsky seems ready for his big chance to take over in goal and Detroit pick Jack Adams could take a step forward.

Princeton surprisingly won the ECAC postseason tournament last year, and despite losing Eric Robinson to Columbus, top scorers Max Veronneau, Ryan Kuffner, Jackson Cressey, and Josh Teves eschewed the pros for another kick at the can. Netminder Ryan Ferland needs to take another step forward to convince me that they can return to the dance. Quinnipiac struggled somewhat last season, looking little like the team that made the NCAA finals twice in a four year span earlier in the decade. With big netminder Keith Petruzzelli (Detroit) looking like he has put a disappointing freshman season behind him, they could be returning to the former heights. There is proven talent up and down the roster, led by blueliners Chase Priskie (Washington), Karlis Cukste (San Jose) and Brandon Fortunato and forwards William Fallstrom, Craig Martin, Odeen Tufto, and the speedy Wyatt Bongiovanni.

That leaves us with two serious contenders for the conference crown. Cornell lost its top three scorers, but returns a ton more and should prove to be very strong at the back. Netminder Matthew Galajda was sensational as a freshman. The blueline is talented and deep, featuring Yanni Kaldis, Alex Green (Tampa Bay), Alec McCrea, Cody Haiskanen, and the hope that Edmonton pick Matthew Cairns can stay healthy and show some of the talent that he displayed two years ago. Rangers pick Morgan Barron, along with returning contributors Brenden Locke, Jeff Malott, and Mitchell Vanderlaan should lead the offensive attack. Freshman Maxim Andreyev is also one to watch. The stacked roster in Ithaca aside, the team to beat in the ECAC should be Harvard. This is a team with six drafted players on the roster, all of whom are legit prospects, as opposed to the late round fliers that we sometimes see on NCAA rosters. The strength of this team is on the blueline, starring Adam Fox (Carolina), Reilly Walsh (New Jersey), John Marino (Edmonton) and freshman Jack Rathbone (Vancouver). All play two-way games, and Fox and Walsh are both particularly dynamic talents, on the small side, mobile and skilled with the puck. There is less up front, but captain Lewis Zerter-Gossage was a big contributor last season, Anaheim draft pick Jack Badini should increase his production as a sophomore and freshman Jack Drury (Carolina), Baker Shore, and Casey Dornbach were all big point producers in the USHL. The main question the Crimson will have to answer is who will replace Merrick Madsen in net. Big Michael Lackey probably gets first dibs, but keep an eye on freshman Derek Schaedig, who also has ideal size and has had success in his time in the NAHL and USHL.

Edmonton Oilers Prospect System Overview

Tom Dorsa — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:36:44 +0000

The Edmonton Oilers are in hockey purgatory. They have far too much young talent to be able to properly upheave everything and rebuild, but so little depth thanks to a number of perplexing decisions from general manager Peter Chiarelli. The Oilers have made their bed, and now they must lay in it, but how do you patch up a team with only one playoff series victory since 2006?

One tried and true method is by finding depth through the NHL Draft and from free agent prospect signings. With so many high first-rounders -- another in 2018 in dynamic defenseman Evan Bouchard -- the Oilers have top-end talent, but their depth lacks. Thankfully for the future of the franchise, Edmonton has begun to go with the trend in drafting smaller, more athletic forwards with later-round picks in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

On a team built around three expensive but worthy centers -- Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -- the Oilers find themselves in desperate need of young, inexpensive draft picks with enough skill and speed to log top-six minutes. Obviously it stings to lose Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, but in Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, and maybe even Ty Rattie, they're getting there with a new approach to building their roster.

Instead of drafting for specific roles and immediate team needs, they've started to draft for talent and let the club construct itself. This will pay major dividends when McDavid and Draisaitl -- already superstars -- get older and more experienced. But it's not just among the forwards that things are looking up, as the goaltenders in the system are pretty promising as well.

Cam Talbot has played more than 350 more minutes than the second-ranked goaltender in the league over the past two years, topping out at over 8,000 combined. It's clear he needs some relief in the form of a serviceable back-up, and the Oilers have three goaltenders in our top 20 prospects. Help is coming.

Defensively, Bouchard joins a group that already features steady top-four presences Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson as well as the developing and promising Darnell Nurse, whose ceiling might be as high as those other two. The Oilers are starting to fill out and become the consistent playoff contenders a team with the best player in the world should be.

Evan Bouchard

1 Evan Bouchard, D (10th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Straight from the NHL Draft, Evan Bouchard is the clear top prospect in the Edmonton system. With offensive tools that include superb vision, accurate and rapid passing skills, excellent athleticism and agility, and an unparalleled combination of lethal shots, the right-hander is a dynamic shot-generating defenseman. His 87 points in 2017-18 led all OHL defensemen despite playing on a London Knights team that got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. His responsibility and discipline defensively is above average, with NHL-ready rink sense, maturity, and durability. He's not overly physical, but should be good and ready to take on NHL size when his debut comes.

2 Kailer Yamamoto, RW (22nd overall, 2017. Last year: 2nd) Unlike the prototypical big, stocky, finesse-first forwards the Oilers have recently taken in high draft rounds, Kailer Yamamoto is undersized, speedy, and offensively gifted. A near elite skater and puck-handler, Yamamoto's offensive potential and smarts are combined with a tricky shot and various elusive moves to get past defenders. Yamamoto could be a future right wing to Connor McDavid at center -- a necessary addition given the lack of speed down the wing in Edmonton -- having shown potential for success with the Oilers after three assists in nine games as an 18 years old last year. 2018-19 will be his last year of WHL eligibility.

3 Ryan McLeod, C (40th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Much like his brother, former first-round pick Michael, Ryan McLeod's game revolves around his intelligence and his wheels. He's seen as a two-way center with some untapped offensive potential, and with a player as mature and defensively stout as the younger McLeod is, that offensive upside is all that needs work; the issue is, he doesn't have a single dynamic scoring skill. The 18-year-old projects to fill out as more of a playmaker than a shooter on offense, as his speed and vision give him something to build on. McLeod was projected in our draft guide as a first-rounder, and could be a second-round steal for the Oilers if he pans out and provides something at the NHL level. The assist leader for Mississauga will be heading back to the Steelheads next year.

4 Tyler Benson, LW (32nd overall, 2016. Last year: 3rd) Tyler Benson's draft stock was decimated due to injuries in and prior to his draft season, but with the raw skill and stupendous playmaking abilities he possesses, it appears the Oilers got a steal in the early second round. Benson is a strong skater and has a solid, heavy shot, but his puck-possession and distribution sets him apart. His vision, creativity, and spot-on passing will make for an abundance of assists at the NHL level, and as long as his health permits it, he has a top-six future. He has some flaws to work on, mostly as far as defensive effort and backchecking goes. He will be turning pro in 2018-19, likely with Bakersfield, where he tallied three assists in five games in a late-season cameo last year.

5 Cooper Marody, C (Trade: Mar. 21, 2018 -- Philadelphia. Last year: Unranked -- Philadelphia) Cooper Marody missed large chunks of his freshman (mononucleosis) and sophomore (academic ineligibility) years at Michigan, but exploded onto the scene this past season with 51 points in 40 games with the Wolverines. The Big Ten scoring champion is a very smart, high-energy player with a gift for slowing the game down, reading the ice, and making the smart plays, which often involve his wicked wrist shot. He isn't very creative and doesn't have good raw speed, but is worth the risk, as the Oilers sent a third-round pick to Philly for the centerman who projects to be a bottom-six guy with some upside. Marody looks ready to turn pro, and given his spot-starts with the Condors, should be prepped to enter the pro system this season.

Olivier Rodrigue

6 Olivier Rodrigue, G (62nd overall, 2018. Last year: IE) One of three goaltenders of note in a position of pretty good depth for the Oilers, Rodrigue has the highest ceiling of the lot. Just the second netminder taken in this June's draft, the QMJHL product has a very light and athletic frame that allows him to glide across the crease and impede any opposing scoring chance. His reflexes and rebound control are insanely refined for an 18-year-old. His positional play will have to improve to make up for his lack of size (6-1", 155lbs), but his NHL potential is there. Just 18 years old, the goaltender will be honing his craft in the QMJHL in 2018-19, where he backstopped Drummondville with a 31-16-1 record last season.

7 Ethan Bear, D (124th overall, 2015. Last year: 11th) Ethan Bear is simply fun to watch. He is short and stocky, but he uses his puzzling physique to his advantage, as his strength on his skates and balance when cutting/pivoting is exceptional. He's got the wheels and vision to make things happen at five-on-five, and the electric shot all potential power play quarterbacks need. Last season, it seemed like the former fifth-rounder made something happen every time the puck was on his stick. The 21-year-old earned top pair minutes with Bakersfield last season, a sign of improvement in what had previously ailed him (defensive zone play), and could be a bottom-four presence on the Oilers roster this year.

8 Stuart Skinner, G (78th overall, 2017. Last year: 4th) Following a mid-season trade at the WHL ranks from Lethbridge to Swift Current, Skinner turned it on, and showed the high ceiling that scouts rave over. The big and sturdy netminder went 16-6-1 in 25 games with the Broncos, displaying decent agility for a goalie his size (6-3", 205lbs), his great net coverage, and improved focus. His lack of consistent focus has ailed him in the past and still does occasionally, but his mental game has taken the next step over the past season. The 19-year-old Skinner signed his entry-level contract with the Oilers and will have a chance to impress in the pro ranks this season.

9 Dmitri Samorukov, D (84th overall, 2017. Last year: 20th) An impenetrable physical force in his own zone, Samorukov has started to show off offensively as well. With OHL career highs in goals, assists, points, and shots, it's clear the young Russian is becoming more confident in his game. Still, his style revolves around what happens behind his blueline, as his great gaps, solid body strength, and active stick make for trouble for opposing forwards. His shot is unimpressive, but as a defensive defenseman, he has fundamentals to build upon. Jumping 11 spots from last season's rankings to now, the 19-year-old has gone from fringe prospect to an on-the-radar youngster in the eyes of the Oilers front office.

10 John Marino, D (154th overall, 2015. Last year: 14th) John Marino has been committed to improvement, and it seems like every year he irons out another flaw that had been holding him back. He has promising puck movement skills and the heads-up demeanor to push the play up ice at any given opportunity, but isn't afraid to use his good gap control and puck-shielding to suppress shots in his own zone. A long-term project at Harvard, the 21-year-old is a lanky 6-2" with room to grow and increase his subpar physical intensity and lack of creativity. Marino was a go-to shut-down defensive option in the USPHL and USHL, and is becoming such with the Crimson.

Kirill Maksimov

11 Kirill Maksimov, RW (146th overall, 2017. Last year: 8th) On its face, Kirill Maksimov's offensive explosion in the OHL last season -- going from a career-high 22 points to 80 -- looks like a one-off fluke. However, Maksimov's raw skill and knack for creating high-danger chances has long been there. He suffers from puzzling inconsistencies, but otherwise, his whole game is there; he's mobile, has great hands, possesses NHL-level size, and plays with responsibility. Edmonton has less skill down the wings than perhaps every other team in the league, and Maksimov could be part of a prospect influx that helps change that. He just has to give it 100% more often.

12 Aapeli Rasanen, C (153rd overall, 2016. Last year: 19th) Aapeli Rasanen is a sneakily good center prospect playing with Boston College. At the club level, he's been a middling player without NHL-caliber skills, but internationally, Rasanen has shined as a point-per-game player in the World Juniors. He lacks any dynamic individual skill a forward should possess, but has a solid two-way skillset, good vision and rink senses, and crisp passing ability. A decent skater, his ceiling is as a fourth-line checking-role forward, as the Finnish forward has played predominantly a depth role with some special teams time at the NCAA ranks. He's another long-term project, but his unteachable qualities are something to keep track of down the line.

13 Caleb Jones, D (117th overall, 2015. Last year: 5th) Caleb Jones' first full season was a rude awakening, as he went from being a near point-per-game player in the WHL to finishing with just 17 points in 58 games in the AHL, adding to that, a -25 mark. Jones was responsible for a lot of defensive breakdowns and opposing goals, and did little to compensate for it offensively. Still, there's a lot of potential for the younger brother of Seth Jones, as a mobile defenseman with a great stretch pass, near elite shot, and good physicality can still be an impact player if his vision and discipline improves. He should be higher up on the depth chart with Bakersfield this season, and his opportunities on the power play will increase.

14 Hayden Hawkey, G (Trade: Jun. 23, 2018. Last Year: unranked [Montreal]) Not only does Hayden Hawkey have one of the best names in the sport, but he has given reason to suspect that he could grow into an NHL netminder. The former Montreal sixth round pick has shown improvement year over year with Providence College and was one of the most difficult goaltenders in NCAA to score upon as a junior with a GAA just a touch above 2. Hawkey combines high end athleticism with good ability to track the play and a competitive streak. Suitably impressed, the Oilers gave Montreal a fifth round pick in the 2019 draft to acquire Hawkey’s player rights, although, with the netminder returning to school for a senior season, Edmonton will have only 12 months to bring him fully into the fold.

15 Joel Persson, D (Free Agent Signing: May 18, 2018. Last year: IE) Joel Persson's situation is an interesting one. The Oilers signed the 24-year-old right-hander to a one-year deal but opted to leave him in Sweden, where last season, he manned the top-pair for Vaxjo, the SHL champs. He's got a booming shot from the point coupled with good vision and is a very quick, smart decision maker. His gap control and defense at the blue line could use some work, and should improve over this season as his mobility and skate quickness are solid enough to become a formidable two-way force. Overall, Edmonton has a fine little project on their hands in Sweden with the offensively-majestic Persson.

Ty Rattie

16 Ty Rattie, RW (Free Agent Signing: July 1, 2017. Last year: Unranked) Ty Rattie has been around the block, but the 25-year-old still has the skillset necessary to be a go-to depth scoring option. The 2011 draft pick is a very cerebral player with quality two-way skills and smarts, but his game truly shines on offense, where his splendid shot and athleticism take over. Once a prolific, 120-point scorer in the WHL, he clearly has top-six skill, but his all-or-nothing positioning can get him in trouble all too often. He's been an electric AHL player with Bakersfield and did well in his short NHL stint last season, but still has a lot to prove for his third NHL organization at just 25.

17 Ostap Safin, RW (115th overall, 2017. Last year: 7th) Size isn't everything, but Edmonton has been adamant about drafting high-ceiling big men and hoping something sticks. Ostap Safin is that, but even at 6-5" and 190lbs, he has some high-quality offensive skills. His finesse play is lethal, as are his long reach and superhuman puck-protection abilities. His defensive game and his tendency to cheat up the ice will need some work, likely coming at the AHL level, but his 58 points in 61 games in the QMJHL -- his first year in North America -- screams of power-forward promise. The Oilers have been seeking a physically powerful, finesse depth scorer for countless seasons; Safin has the ceiling to fit that ideal.

18 Cameron Hebig, C (Free Agent Signing: Dec. 28, 2017. Last year: IE) After missing the entire 2016-17 season in the WHL with a mystery illness, Hebig posted 90 points in 62 games between Saskatoon and Regina last season. The right-shooting pivot is a point-scoring machine at his best and with no concern about his health, with patient but fast hands and a terrifying wrist shot. He is as creative with the puck as he is dangerous, finding better opportunities every time he flies down the ice even if it means sacrificing his own shot. If his health holds up, he could lead the charge for the Condors offense this season, where -- at 21 years old -- he'll be entering the pro ranks for the Oilers franchise.

19 Filip Berglund, D (91st overall, 2016. Last year: Unranked) Filip Berglund is much like a familiar name in Edmonton, Adam Larsson; Berglund's game centers around his size, his mental poise in his own zone, and his shooting ability. His game is much more strictly defensive, however, but his defensive capabilities are exceptional, combining good gap control with the ability to force forwards to the outside of the zone and limit dangerous passes and shots. He put up decent numbers for a third-pair defenseman on a fairly talented SHL team, Skelleftea, chipping in 13 points in 44 games. Berglund does not have a high ceiling as a prospect, but his floor (AHL top-four, NHL bottom-two or extra defenseman) is high enough for Edmonton to remain optimistic in his development.

20 Tyler Vesel, C (153rd overall, 2014. Last year: Unranked) The 24-year-old is coming off of a highly-successful college career captaining Nebraska-Omaha and did well enough in a cameo stint with Bakersfield to earn a one-year contract with Edmonton. It's been a long time coming for Vesel, originally drafted as sixth round over-ager, but the undersized forward's maturity, craftiness, and relentless effort oozes potential for a role as an effective checking-line forward in the pro ranks. At 24, he's older than the average prospect, and his experience should make a difference for the leadership core of the Condors roster. There's not much more Vesel can do to round his game out, but his competitiveness and adaptability should make him a welcomed presence in the AHL and perhaps the NHL.

Edmonton – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 16:11:54 +0000

The Edmonton Oilers have had a lot of recent experience drafting very high in recent years, famously picking first three years in a row from 2010-2012. To their credit, they have done a solid job with their top picks, with the notable exceptions of Nail Yakupov and, to a lesser extent, Magnus Paajarvi.

Connor McDavid is, if not the best, at least among the top two players in the game. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall have also turned into strong forwards. Leon Draisaitl looks like a stud playing on McDavid’s wing. Darnell Nurse is still developing, but has all of the tools to become a first pairing defender. Oskar Klefbom already is a legitimate first pairing defender.

With so many high end, young picks on the NHL roster, the question has been why the team could not become a consistent playoff contender sooner. The answer lies in nearly every other pick or prospect acquisition made by the club in around ten years. In the ten drafts leading up to this one, the only players of note drafted by the Oilers after the first round have been Anton Lander (215 games, 35 points), Martin Marincin (175 games, 25 points), and Tobias Reider (234 games, 92 points). No one else among those players appeared in more than 101 NHL games. Even limited to those three, Reider never played for the Oilers, who traded his player rights to Arizona while he was still in the OHL. Notably, the player the received in return never played in the NHL.

The next question can then only be why did the team get so little from their drafts after the obvious, high first round talent was scoured through? The most commonly cited complaint about the Oilers drafting in recent years – particularly in the years before Peter Chiarelli took over as GM – was that they drafted for roles instead of drafting for talent. In other words, they did not draft players who they thought were good, they drafted prospects who were role players for their junior team, with the expectation that it would be easy to mold them into role players at the higher levels.

Unfortunately, that rarely works. Even mediocre fourth liners in the NHL were top six talents in amateur hockey. Frankly, the Oilers should have known better. To cherry-pick one example, in 2007, with their third of three first round picks, Edmonton selected Riley Nash, a high scoring forward with Salmon Arm of the BCHL. Nash then spent three seasons at Cornell, scoring around one point per game throughout. Since then, he has matured into a competent but limited fourth line forward, contributing 0.3 points per game over 4.5 seasons in the NHL.

Compare that with, say Mitchell Moroz, who they selected in the second round in 2012. Moroz had pro size, but was a depth forward in the WHL, with nearly four penalty minutes for each point. Through three AHL seasons, his season high in points is 10 and with his ELC expired, the best contract he could get for next year was an ECHL contract. For the successes of last season not to end up as an aberration, the practice of drafting down needs to be a thing of the past.

Edmonton Oilers rookie and 4th overall draft pick Jesse Puljujarvi #98 (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

1 Jesse Puljujarvi – Although he was not yet ready for the NHL, Pujujarvi showed flashes with the Oilers, and more with Bakersfield in his age 18 season, to suggest that, like Leon Draisaitl before him, he will yet emerge as a strong contributor to a playoff team. Physically ready, with a pro-style game and a very good wrist shot, he will get used to the pace of the game. Long lauded for his high hockey IQ, it is a matter of time before it all clicks. His leash this year will be longer.

Kailer Yamamoto. Photo by Larry Brunt.

2 Kailer Yamamoto – A rare undersized player drafted by the Oilers, Yamamoto is a big game player with near elite offensive skills. A great skater and puck handler, he put up 13 points in seven games as an underager in the 2016 WU18 before finishing sixth in WHL in his draft year. The Oilers may see him as a future McDavid linemate, taking the role the similarly height-challenged Alex DeBrincat mastered alongside McDavid with Erie.

3 Tyler Benson – After injuries decimated his draft season, Benson started the season with the Vancouver Giants on fire before injury struck again, again ending his season early. When healthy, he is a great skater, with plus-plus playmaking skills and a strong, physical approach to the game. His shot is also enough of a weapon to fit on a top six line at the highest level. If his health problems are finally behind him, he could explode.

Stuart Skinner

4 Stuart Skinner – The highest upside netminder in the system, Skinner was a full time starter in the WHL for three full seasons before he was eligible for the draft. A big player with decent agility for his size, he plays a mostly butterfly style that allows him to block the bottom of the net very well. His occasional lapses in concentration allowed him to drop to the third round, but he generally tracks the puck well and minimizes second chances.

5 Caleb Jones – The first, and best, of four defensemen drafted by Edmonton in 2015, Jones will never be as tall nor as talented as older brother Seth, but he is a fine prospect in his own right. Although his point totals in the WHL have been impressive and have improved year over year, he is actually more notable for his defensive zone game. He is a solid skater who plays an aggressive game, usable in all situations. Best defenseman in the system.

6 Laurent Brossoit – After Jonas Gustavsson flame out last year, Brossoit, who had struggled in emergency duty for the Oilers in 2015-16, came up and finally looked ready to face NHL shooters. A fundamentally sound shot blocker, he is not the most athletic netminder, but understands angles very well and minimizes ugly rebounds. His ceiling may only be that of a backup, but it is a good backup, and he is ready now. The job is his.

7 Ostap Safin – After drafting small in the first round, Edmonton self-corrected in subsequent rounds, taking large human after large human. At 6-4”, 200, Safin certainly qualifies. More than just a big body, he has some intriguing offensive upside, featuring great net drive, great each reach and puck protection skills. He is a very good skater for his size. His offensive output in the Czech junior ranks and internationally for the Czech U18 squads was strong, but he should be able to produce even more.

8 Kirill Maksimov – A Russian born winger who has been in Canada since he was at least 14, Maksimov took big steps in his draft year after being traded from Saginaw to Niagara. Although his game suffered from bouts of inconsistency, at his best, he was often the best player on the ice. He has pro size, a responsible two-way game and very good puck skills. He is mobile, as well. If he can bring his A-game more often, the fifth round pick will turn out to be a steal.

9 Jujhar Khaira – A heavy presence on the boards, Khaira took his time developing his offensive game in the AHL, but now seems to be ready to produce enough to fit in on an energy line in the NHL. His skating is impressive coming from his broad body, particularly his edge work. He is comfortable playing with the puck, with very strong possession skills, or off of it, as he can be devilish in pursuit. Pretty close to a finished product.

10 Ziyat Paigin – A mountain of a man with the point shot to match, Paigin came to North America at the end of his season in the KHL. He came into prominence in his third year of draft eligibility through impressive performances across North America with the Russian contingent in the Subway Series which was followed up with strong work at the WJC. Last season was a disappointment after a great first post draft year with HK Sochi, the Oilers will be patient with his acclimation to the North American game.

11 Ethan Bear – Short, yet stocky and sturdy, Bear was one point shy of averaging a point per game combined across his last two WHL seasons with Seattle, although he easily surpasses that benchmark if we include postseason play. He is a plus skater with very promising puck moving skills and an underrated yet quiet game in his own zone. He will have to prove himself all over again as he makes the leap to the AHL.

12 Markus Niemelainen – A towering blueliner who specializes in controlling play in his own zone, Niemelainen’s puck play suffered in his first post draft year with his point totals dropping by a full two-thirds. A decent skater for his size, he has in the past demonstrated decent puck moving skills, showing the ability to get the puck smartly into more dangerous positions. Due to his offensive limitations, his floor is a lot higher than his ceiling.

13 Dylan Wells – Drafted as a poor performing project in 2016, Wells raised his save percentage by a remarkable 45 points in his first post draft year, putting himself firmly on the radar for Edmonton’s future goaltending needs. He has fantastic compete level, is a fine athlete and is also an above average puck handler for a goalie. The Oilers are suddenly flush with netminders, and if Wells can build off last year, he will force some uncomfortable decisions down the road.

14 John Marino – Originally drafted out of the USPHL, Marino has since stepped up and conquered the USHL – winning a title with Tri-City – and NCAA hockey, where he was a key blueline contributor to a Frozen Four entrant with Harvard. Lanky, with room to grow, he brings above average mobility, solid puck moving skills and a promising game in his own zone to the ice. He will stay with Harvard for a few seasons yet, but has already come a long way and seems to have more to come.

15 Ryan Mantha – Originally a fourth round pick of the New York Rangers in 2014, the Blueshirts never offered Mantha a contract. Freed from his draft organization, Mantha had a monster overage year with Niagara, with nearly one point per game, mostly on the strength of his heavy point shot, which he would never hesitate to unleash, often registering 10 or more shots per game. He also has plus size, which makes him effective in scrums, but also contributes to below average foot speed.

16 Joe Gambardella – The more intriguing of the two NCAA free agents inked by the Oilers this year. Gambardella has been a top offensive producer for each of his last three seasons with U.Mass-Lowell. Short and stocky, he is tough in the corners, has good puck possession skills and a plus shot. He also plays a mature game, very alert and ready to spring into action. He has bottom six NHL upside.

17 Nick Ellis – A seldom used backup in his first two years at Providence, Ellis took over the starter’s mantle in 2015-16 and was so good, the Oilers offered him a free agent contract to pass up a fourth year of NCAA eligibility. Undersized by modern standards, he demonstrates a high level of poise in the crease and sticks very well with the shooter. He has great lateral movement, thanks to a very strong push, and projects as a potential future NHL backup.

18 Joey LaLeggia – Two years removed from his exploits with Denver, where he was a Hobey Baker finalist, LaLeggia seems to be almost through the transition from offense-only defenseman to secondary-offense producer winger. He plays at a very fast pace when on the offensive, using his speed to push defenders back on their heels. He is the exact inverse in his own zone, though, easy to get off-balance and out of position. He is more likely to make the NHL on the wing.

19 Aapeli Rasanen – A late round 2016 draft pick who produced more in international play than he did for Tappara’s junior club, that pattern repeated itself this year. Rasanen had middling numbers with USHL finalist Sioux City, despite often lining up with first rounder Eeli Tolvanen, but was one of Finland’s best threats at the WJC. He has solid vision in the offensive zone and is a strong passer. His best asset is his two-way game. Will play for Boston College next year.

20 Dmitri Samorukov – Although his defensive game got the most work in league play with OHL bottom-feeders Guelph, once he got to the WU18 tournament at year’s end, Samorukov showed off an impressive offensive element with five points in seven games for the blueliner. In his own zone, he offers tight coverage and a good stick. Moving up the ice, he is a strong passer with an average point shot. It will be interesting to see if any of that carries over into next season.

Although the Oilers still place an inordinate weight on a prospect’s size before drafting him – 16 of the top 20 are at least 6-0” tall, and eight are at least 6-3”, they have at least taken to ensuring that they are drafting skilled players, instead of drafting to fill out a role. If Yamamoto excels the way that many – ourselves included – expect, Edmonton might start scouting and drafting from a wider range of heights.