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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, as fantasy playoffs are upon us, the Blackhawks bring in another top prospect, Marco Rossi, Anthony Cirelli, and Quinton Byfield are producing in the middle of the ice as Troy Terry and Zach Benson are working the wings.
#1 While it has been another tough season for the Chicago Blackhawks, they are getting a nice boost late in the season with the arrival of Anton Frondell, the third pick in last summer’s draft, who tallied 20 goals and eight assists for 28 points in 43 games for Djurgardens in the SHL. Frondell has arrived in Chicago, registered two assists in his first three NHL games, and is skating on the top line with Connor Bedard and Ryan Greene in addition to getting first unit power play time. He’s 18, so expectations need to be kept in check, but he’s also getting enough of an opportunity to make him immediately interesting for those in deep leagues.
#2 There may be some fantasy value to be found in players that are playing for teams out of the playoff picture. For example, it’s easy enough to dismiss the Vancouver Canucks as they have endured a brutal season, but centre Marco Rossi has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in his past eight games, is getting first unit power play time and is thriving with linemates Liam Ohgren and Brock Boeser.
#3 With an established reputation as a strong two-way player, Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli is getting a shot at an expanded offensive role, skating on the top line between Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel. In his past 12 games, Cirelli has produced 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 21 shots on goal, with 13 of those 14 points coming at even strength. With 2.51 points per 60 minutes during five-on-five play this season, Cirelli ranks 22nd in the league. Not bad for a checking centre.
#4 He has missed some time with injuries, but Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has been on a good run since Christmas, producing 17 points (7 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in 15 games. He is scoring better than a point per game this season, a feat he has not been able to accomplish in a full season. He was scratched from Thursday’s game at Calgary, so his reliability remains an issue but his productivity makes him a valuable player whenever he is in the lineup.
#5 There are so many great stories on the Buffalo Sabres this season, as the team is poised to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2010-2011 season, and one of those great stories is the play of 20-year-old winger Zach Benson. In his past six games, Benson has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with seven shots on goal. That shot rate needs improvement, but Benson is thriving on a line with Josh Norris and Josh Doan. When Benson is on the ice at five-on-five, the Sabres are outscoring opponents 39-22.
#6 As the Los Angeles Kings push for a playoff spot, centre Quinton Byfield has stepped up his game, with nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven contests. Consistency has been elusive for Byfield, as he had five points (4 G, 1 A) in the previous 17 games, but when he’s going, Byfield can be a physical force. He is currently skating on a line with Trevor Moore and Alex Laferriere while getting second-unit power play time.
#7 The Ottawa Senators are in a competitive battle for a playoff spot but they are dealing with serious injuries on the blueline. Jake Sanderson was already out of the lineup with an upper-body injury when Thomas Chabot suffered a broken arm that will keep him out for 4-to-8 weeks. Add in injuries to Nick Jensen and Dennis Gilbert and the Sens were forced to make changes, which included calling up 2024 first-round pick Carter Yakeumchuk from Belleville of the American Hockey League, where he had 36 points (10 G, 26 A) in 50 games. Yakemchuk has two points (1 G, 1 A) with four shots on goal in his first three NHL games and the injuries on Ottawa’s blueline may prompt the Sens to keep Yakemchuk and his offensive skills in the lineup. Some D to consider from the waiver wire: Damon Severson, who has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 14 games this month, Rasmus Sandin, who has five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past seven games, and even Sens defenders Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence, who have combined for 12 points in the past eight games.
#8 In the past month, New Jersey Devils right winger Connor Brown has been moved into a more offensive role and has delivered 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 24 shots on goal in 13 games. He has been a reliable middle six winger in his NHL career, but he’s skating on a line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, while also getting top-unit power play time. He is up to 36 points (14 G, 22 A) on the season, within striking distance of his career high of 43 points, set during the 2019-2020 season when he was with the Ottawa Senators.
#9 It has not been an easy season for Nashville Predators winger Jonathan Marchessault, but he has recorded 10 assists in his past 11 games, a veritable surge in production for a player who has just 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 53 games. The veteran winger is playing on PP1 for the Predators and is skating on a line with Matthew Wood and Filip Forsberg, so he’s in a decent situation to produce late in the season.
#10 It’s been a similar situation for Anaheim Ducks veteran winger Alex Killorn, who has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 17 shots on goal in his past 10 games, which is a significant improvement for a player who had 20 points in 63 games before that. The 36-year-old winger is skating on a line with veteran pivot Mikael Granlund and rookie right winger Bennett Sennecke, which is a strong enough situation to consider Killorn for some late-season value.
#11 As the Seattle Kraken try to stay in the playoff hunt, captain Jordan Eberle has contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games. He is up to 23 goals on the season, which is his most in a season since 2017-2018, when he scored 25, so he is within range of that total. He has consistently been playing on Seattle’s top line with Matty Beniers at centre and there have been several wingers rotating through. Right now, it’s rookie Berkly Catton getting a shot on the left side.
#12 Staying in Seattle, right winger Kaapo Kakko is delivering quality results late in the season. In his past seven games, Kakko has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with seven shots on goal. That shot rate is not enough to sustain that level of offensive production, but he provides useful secondary scoring, skating on a line with Chandler Stephenson and Bobby McMann.
#13 Early this season, the Utah Grizzlies winger Lawson Crouse was not playing a big part and his production was modest, managing nine points (4 G, 5 A) through his first 26 games. It’s gotten better throughout the season, and in his past seven games, he has six points (4 G, 2 A) and 24 hits, which is really where Crouse brings his most reliable value for fantasy managers. He has scored 20 goals for the fourth time in his career and it’s the fifth time in his career that he has recorded at least 190 hits. If you have a need on the wing at this point in the fantasy season, you could do worse than adding Crouse.
#14 There have been reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs are not inclined to give a qualifying offer to right winger Matias Maccelli this summer, but Maccelli has been one of the few Maple Leafs contributing consistently. Since the beginning of February, Maccelli has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) with 33 shots on goal in 20 games. He is tied with John Tavares for second on the team in scoring over that span, three points behind William Nylander and one point ahead of Matthew Knies. Most recently, he’s been skating on a line with Dakota Joshua and Bo Groulx, but that hasn’t deterred him.
#15 Although the wins aren’t coming easily, Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll has been playing well late in the season while facing a heavy workload. In his past eight starts, Woll has a 2-4-2 record, but he has a .910 save percentage while facing an average of around 35 shots per game. The Leafs’ lack of success doesn’t help Woll’s value, but it is part of the reason that he’s still available in a decent percentage of leagues and he’s playing well enough that he could help a fantasy manager who needs a late-season upgrade between the pipes.
#16 While we’re considering goaltenders on teams that are out of the playoff race, look at St. Louis Blues netminder Joel Hofer, who has been unbeatable since the Olympic break. In nine games since the break, Hofer has a 7-0-2 record with a .955 save percentage! He has a .911 save percentage on the season and has recently overtaken Jordan Binnington in terms of starts, with Hofer at 36 and Binnington at 35. Perhaps this is the changing of the guard for the Blues, as Hofer has 13.44 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and Binnington has -20.01 (GSAx), a stark difference in performance.
#17 There was some suspicion around the Olympic break that the Florida Panthers could be on the verge of shutting down a bunch of players with injuries because the playoffs were looking less and less likely, so there was not as much incentive for players to play through the injuries that they might when the team is mounting a Stanley Cup run. Aleksander Barkov has been out all season of course, but Brad Marchand is out, Anton Lundell will miss 2-6 weeks with an upper body injury, Evan Rodrigues is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger, and Mackie Samoskevich is due to return soon, but he’s still out. That leaves forwards like Jesper Boqvist and Tomas Nosek playing bigger roles than would typically be expected of them.
#18 Philadelphia Flyers centre Christian Dvorak has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games, and he really has the trust of Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet. In the past 22 games, Dvorak has played more than 20 minutes 12 times, including a season-high 25:32 last week at San Jose. He is now averaging 18:28 of ice time per game, a career high, and his 44 points (15 G, 29 A) is also the high-water mark for his career. All of this is to suggest that, in a pinch, Dvorak could have late-season value for fantasy managers.
#19 It’s a little troubling for the Vegas Golden Knights, as they scramble for a playoff spot, that star centre Jack Eichel has hit a slump. They are hoping he has broken out of it with a three-point game last night against Washington. In his previous seven games, Eichel has generated 22 shots on goal while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game, and yet he has managed just one assist. It would be a tad aggressive to go cutting Eichel at this stage of the season, especially when he’s generating shots at this rate, but it’s also possible that he doesn’t need to be in your fantasy lineup automatically. It’s not much better for Golden Knights right winger Mitch Marner, who has two assists and 19 shots on goal in the past eight games.
#20 Anaheim Ducks winger Cutter Gauthier is tied for the league lead with 11 goals in March, tied with Pavel Zacha. Gauthier ranks second in expected goals with 7.61 ixG, barely trailing Brady Tkachuk at 7.69. Other forwards that have been around the net, rounding out the top ten when it comes to individual expected goals: Zach Hyman (7.09), Brock Nelson (6.98), Alex DeBrincat (6.93). Beckett Sennecke (6.85), Bryan Rust (6.68), Rickard Rakell (6.60), Alexis Lafreniere (6.49), and Timo Meier (6.49).
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the good and the bad with the Ottawa Senators, a young Ducks centre steps into the spotlight, a Wild rookie offering upside on the blueline, and a Red Wings veteran who is ready to find the net.
#1 With six goals in five games, Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto is tied with Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev for the early goal-scoring lead in the National Hockey League. While he is obviously not going to continue at a 98-goal pace, Pinto does have some underlying factors that could help this become his best season in the NHL. The first is that his ice time is up nearly a minute per game from last season and the second is that his rate of shots per game has climbed from 1.81 last season to 3.0 per game early this season. It’s the consistent shot generation that helps to keep production sustainable.
#2 The more immediate concern for the Senators is that team captain Brady Tkachuk will be out from six-to-eight weeks following thumb surgery. Tkachuk is not easily replaced, because there are so few players of his size and physical nature that can also produce offensively. Ridly Greig is getting a chance alongside Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux on Ottawa’s top line, and there is enough time for him to show what he can do in a bigger role.
#3 After making steady progress through his first two NHL seasons, Anaheim Ducks centre Leo Carlsson could be ready to bust out in his third season. He has started the year with six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in four games. He currently has veterans Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn on his wings, but Carlsson has had success with Troy Terry on his wing and, last season, thrived with Cutter Gauthier. There are options for the Ducks, but it appears that 20-year-old Carlsson might be ready to be the driving force on his line.
#4 Expectations have been very high for Minnesota Wild defenceman Zeev Buium since he was taken with the 12th pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. He had 98 points (24 G, 74 A) in 83 games in two seasons at the University of Denver, but he has started with five points (1 G, 4 A) in four games this season for the Wild and, crucially, is quarterbacking Minnesota’s first power play unit.
#5 He has yet to score a goal through four games, but the rest of his numbers are very encouraging for Detroit Red Wings winger Alex DeBrincat. He has generated 32 shot attempts and 15 shots on goal to go along with six assists in four games. That shot rate of 3.75 per game would be the highest rate of his career, despite fewer than half of his attempts making it on net. Prior to this season, he had hit the net on 54.3 percent of his shot attempts, so he is only down a little in this small sample, but he is putting up eight shot attempts per game and his previous career high during a full season was just under 5.9 shot attempts per game, so the opportunities are there and it’s fair to expect the goals to follow.
#6 As noted above, Chris Kreider is spending most of his time skating on Leo Carlsson’s wing in Anaheim, and he’s getting results early with five points (4 G, 1 A) and 12 shots on goal in four games. In all of his seasons with the Rangers, Kreider managed to average three shots on goal per game just twice and those were the 2021-2022 and 2023-2024 seasons, when he scored 52 and 39 goals, respectively, the two best goal-scoring seasons of his career. If playing with Carlsson helps keep Kreider’s shot rate at this level, he could be primed for a bounce-back season with the Ducks.
#7 It’s not as though fantasy managers will be unaware of Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas who broke through with 30 goals and 66 points last season, but one of the concerns about his production was that he was very dependent on percentages, scoring on 21.1 percent of his shots, and a lofty 14.3 on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five. He is still getting those high percentages on his way to five points (3 G, 2 A) in Washington’s first four games, but he also has 13 shots on goal and is playing 18:55 per game, both of which are notably higher than last season when he averaged fewer than two shots on goal per game and played 16:27 per game.
#8 It’s easy enough to get underrated when playing for the Chicago Blackhawks, given the state of the team these days, but veteran winger Teuvo Teravainen is off to a nice start with six points (1 G, 5 A) in five games, though he has managed just three shots on goal. He’s more playmaker than shooter, but that total is still low. Nevertheless, Teravainen does seem to have a good thing going early in the year on a line with Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his production.
#9 A couple of power play assists early helped to jumpstart Pavel Zacha’s season for the Boston Bruins. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in five games while skating on a line with Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson at even strength, but Zacha is on Boston’s top power play unit and the opportunity to share the ice with David Pastrnak is a critical factor to point production for any Bruins skaters, it seems. Zacha is not a volume shooter, having never recorded even 150 shots on goal in a season, but four shots on goal in five games this season is still rather low.
#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann is one of the more established goal scorers on the roster and is off to a nice start with four points (3 G, 1 A) in four games this season. Skating on Seattle’s top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle, McCann has recorded 14 shots on goal and 28 shot attempts, both of which represent higher per-game rates (3.5 shots, 7.0 shot attempts) than he has been able to sustain in his career, so even if McCann isn’t going to keep scoring on a pace of 60-plus goals, he is getting the underlying numbers that will support strong offensive production.
#11 Seeking a fresh start in Philadelphia with John Tortorella no longer behind the bench, veteran Flyers centre Sean Couturier has seen his ice time jump by a couple of minutes per game compared to last season and he has five points (2 G, 3 A) with six shots on goal through four games. He has been on the wrong end of the shot counts early, with a 41.4 percent Corsi, but shot quality has played in Couturier’s favor with a 51.1 percent expected goals percentage during five-on-five play. Couturier last topped 50 points in a season back in 2019-2020, but he’s skating with Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov on Philadelphia’s top line, so he ought to have a chance to get there this season.
#12 When the Nashville Predators collapsed last season, some of their high-profile free agent signings ended up with lacklustre production. For example, Jonathan Marchessault went from 42 goals in Vegas in 2023-2024 to 21 goals for Nashville last season. Early this season, Marchessault has four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games, but his 15 shots on goal and 26 shot attempts move closer to the years of his best production in Vegas, so maybe that’s a positive sign for Nashville as a team and Marchessault when it comes to his individual production.
#13 With four goals in four games, it would be very easy to get excited about St. Louis Blues left winger Jake Neighbours. He has moved up to the top line, with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, so that’s encouraging, too, but Neighbours’ ice time is down nearly a minute-and-a-half per game from last season, and he has just six shots on goal in four games. If he’s going to stick with Thomas and Buchnevich, that is probably reason enough to be optimistic but be a little bit wary of his underlying performance.
#14 Coming off of a 41-point season, with his lowest points per game since 2016-2017, Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly was a bit of a buy-low option coming into the season. He also had some upside because, with Mitch Marner leaving for Vegas, there was room for Rielly to quarterback Toronto’s No. 1 power play unit again. Thus far, Rielly has delivered, putting up five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games. Rielly has only surpassed 200 shots in a season twice in his career, so that shot rate is very encouraging.
#15 A bargain acquisition in the offseason from the Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators defenceman Jordan Spence has been excellent in the early going for the Senators. He has contributed four assists and seven shots on goal in three games and while he is averaging 18:30 of ice time per game, Spence is also dominating his five-on-five minutes, with a Corsi percentage of 67.6 percent and an expected goals percentage of 78.2 percent. It’s not going to be easy to get power play time with Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot ahead of him on the depth chart, so maybe that limits Spence’s upside, but he is worth keeping tabs on.
#16 With the New York Rangers losing centre Vincent Trocheck to an upper-body injury that will keep him out a month, Mika Zibanejad has moved back into the middle of the ice for the Blueshirts. That has created an opening on the right wing in New York’s top six, and veteran winger Conor Sheary is getting a look in that role. He only has one assist and eight shots on goal in six games, but his ice time has gone up, and he has averaged 17:57 time on ice per game in his past two contests. It’s not enough to warrant picking up Sheary, but worth seeing if he can make the most of his opportunity.
#17 The Rangers have had huge problems scoring early in the season, managing just 11 goals through six games. Zibanejad has one goal on 24 shots, Alexis Lafreniere has one goal on 21 shots and Will Cuylle has one goal on 17 shots. These are players skating in top six roles. Add in Artemi Panarin with zero goals on 13 shots and J.T. Miller with one goal in 10 shots, and the most encouraging aspect for the Rangers is that these guys can’t all keep shooting at such low percentages. Eventually, the dam will break and pucks will start to go in the net, so maybe the Rangers offer some buy-low opportunities right now.
#18 Some players have just been snakebit early. Here are the players with the highest individual expected goals total in all situations that have yet to score. Number one is Connor McDavid with 2.29 ixG, followed by David Tomasek (2.09), Alex DeBrincat (2.04), Connor McMichael (1.96), and Nick Suzuki (1.94). The takeaway for any of them is that they are due to start scoring. As any slumping goal-scorer will tell you, they worry more when they aren’t getting the chances and these players are getting chances.
#19 At the other end of the spectrum, Toronto Maple Leafs winger Calle Jarnkrok has scored three goals despite recording just 0.5 individual expected goals, suggesting that he may not continue at his current goal-scoring pace. He is averaging 11:08 of ice time per game and has eight shots on goal, so expectations would be understandably modest, but those goals are not necessarily the product of lots of great opportunities.
#20 With Mackenzie Blackwood recovering from injury, Scott Wedgewood has been excellent in goal for the Avalanche, earning 4.71 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in four starts. Other goalies excelling early: Igor Shesterkin (7.20 GSAx), Thatcher Demko (5.38 GSAx), and Spencer Knight (3.74 GSAx). On the other hand, Linus Ullmark (-4.09 GSAx), Dustin Wolf (-4.04 GSAx), Alex Nedeljkovic (-3.65 GSAx), Adin Hill (-3.05 GSAx), and Samuel Montembeault (-2.81 GSAx) are goalies that have started multiple games and have allowed the most goals relative to expectations. It is very early, but good to have this information when evaluating goalie options.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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After missing the playoffs for seven straight seasons, the Senators finally returned to the postseason in 2024-2025, recording 97 points (45-30-7). They lost in six games in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs, which was disappointing but not altogether unexpected. They were a middling possession team, ranking 14th in Corsi percentage (50.3) and 18th in expected goals percentage (49.6). Ottawa scored 7.68 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 16th. They also ranked 16th with 7.09 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, so this is a very average team based on those numbers. What lifted them above that, however, is goaltending. Linus Ullmark, Anton Forsberg, and Leevi Merilainen combined to give the Sens a .908 save percentage which helped boost a mostly average team into the playoffs.
What’s Changed?
The Senators did not stray too far from their playoff roster, maintaining a lot of continuity heading into this season. They signed veteran checking centre Lars Eller, who had been with the Washington Capitals, winger Arthur Kaliyev, who was last with the New York Rangers, and made a savvy addition to their blueline, trading for Jordan Spence of the Los Angeles Kings. Forsberg signed as a free agent in Los Angeles, but the Senators already had Merilainen ready to step into the backup role, so that should be a seamless transition for them in goal. Free agent forward Adam Gaudette signed with the St. Louis Blues and veteran defenceman Travis Hamonic remains without a contract. Those are not a lot of changes, so the Senators have to be looking to build on last season’s success with the vast majority of the team that brought that success.
What would success look like?
At this point, the playoffs have to be expected for the Senators, though it’s obviously not to be taken for granted. The team had middle-of-the-road numbers except for goaltending, so if they are going to be assured of success, they need to play better in all situations, so that they are above average in all of those aspects. If the Sens could be a Top 10 or Top 12 team at five-on-five, five-on-four, and four-on-five, and have strong goaltending on top of that, then that’s a team that could be expected to do more than just show up in the playoffs. Winning a playoff round would be a successful season for the Sens in 2025-2026.
What could go wrong?
There is a fine line when a team depends on its goaltending, because it’s an unpredictable position and it’s just one guy between the pipes, with no one to pick him up if he’s not performing. So, if the Senators don’t get strong goaltending, then suddenly they could be left scrambling for a playoff spot, but that’s precisely why the team needs to show improvement. They have quality talent with depth to handle potential injuries, so that should mitigate any down sides, but the Senators are not safe enough in the playoff picture to be expected to just cruise past every hurdle, so an injury to a key player, a goaltending slump, some bad bounces at the wrong time could still prevent them from making a second straight playoff appearance.
Top Breakout Candidate
After he was acquired from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund arrived in Ottawa and produced shockingly little. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) and 40 shots on goal with the Senators and then had zero points and six shots on goal in six playoff games against the Maple Leafs. The Senators responded by giving Zetterlund a three-year, $12.825 million contract, a vote of confident for the sturdy young winger. More importantly, Zetterlund looks like he could get a shot with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle on the Senators’ top line and if that happens, then the opportunity is there for Zetterlund to have the best offensive output of his career.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 36 | 53 | 89 | 1.09 |
The German center compiled what was arguably the best season of his career in 2024-25. Even though his 24 goals and 76 points fell short of the 39 goals and 91-point regular season highs he established during his 2022-23 campaign, Stützle boosted his overall worth by having the best defensive performance of his career. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'total defence' (DEF) metric that combines all of a player's five-on-five and shorthanded contributions into one encompassing metric, Stützle more than quadrupled his previous best (4.1 DEF in 2024-25, 0.8 in 2021-22) for defensive value. Stützle has a substantial impact on the Senators' offence and defence when he is on the ice. If there are any knocks to the center's game, they rest exclusively on his 47.8 percent faceoff success rate and the fact that he often does not play selfishly enough at five-on-five. The good news is that he improved in the faceoff dot for a fourth consecutive season, while acknowledging in his end-of-season media availability that he knows that he needs to shoot more. If Stützle can maintain his defensive gains while winning more draws and electing to shoot more, he could be in line for a massive season. More puck possession and any improvement on a five-on-five shot rate (5.43) that was by far the worst of his career will improve this team's even strength scoring woes. Yet, even without those improvements, 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated only two forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) as contributing more value than Stützle last season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 40 | 37 | 77 | 0.95 |
The Senators' captain bolstered his reputation as a shot volume-producing machine. Of the forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time during the regular season, no player in the league generated more shots than Tkachuk's 11.82 per 60 minutes. Unfortunately, the rugged forward sustained a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off, which limited his availability and effectiveness down the stretch leading into the postseason. Tkachuk's 29 goals and 55 points in 72 games represented his lowest production totals since the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season, in which he recorded 17 goals and 36 points in 56 games. Had he enjoyed better health, he undoubtedly would have surpassed the 30-goal threshold for a fourth consecutive season. Despite lower production totals, his five-on-five shot rate was not far removed from his career norm, while his shooting percentage (5.67) was the worst of his career. If he continues to generate that volume while his shooting percentage normalizes, his production should comfortably return to previous levels. Thanks to that shot volume and his willingness to go to the dirty areas, it feels like in one of these years, if he gets the bounces and his shooting percentage climbs into the low to mid-teens, Brady will score 45 to 50 goals. He continues to play with a physical edge that makes him such a unique and dynamic player. He joined Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson as one of only three players last season to record more than 25 goals and 200 hits.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 29 | 37 | 66 | 0.80 |
The Senators' right winger is often paradoxical in the sense that he is a model of consistency while leaving a feeling that he is capable of more. Batherson has played in all of the Senators' 82 regular season games in each of the last three seasons while compiling more than 20 goals and 60 points in each of them, being one of only 11 players who surpassed those two thresholds and recorded more than 100 hits. Batherson scored 26 goals while contributing a career-best 68 points in 2024-25, but the organization was compelled to make a move at the trade deadline to give their talented right winger the play-driving center he needed to not only generate offence but help take the puck and sustain play in the offensive zone. Following the March 7th trade deadline, the 27-year-old led the Senators in scoring with 10 goals and 19 points in the team's final 21 games. There is an expectation that Batherson will return to play on the Senators' second line alongside center Dylan Cozens, but there may be a chance the right winger could replace Claude Giroux on the team's first line. If he does, it would represent an incredible opportunity to shatter his previous career highs.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 20 | 38 | 58 | 0.71 |
Acquired by the Senators in a stunning trade deadline deal that moved the popular Josh Norris to Buffalo, Cozens' addition immediately began paying dividends. There was no secret to the success; the change represented a better and healthier fit. Where Josh Norris was a center who was strong on faceoffs and a finisher, Cozens was a big and physical center who could take the puck from the Senators' end and navigate it safely through the neutral zone, creating clean entries and sustained offensive zone pressure. After scoring 31 goals and adding 37 helpers during his career-best 2022-23 campaign, Cozens has failed to replicate that success. Granted, it may have been naive to believe that those numbers were sustainable, given the fact that his shooting percentage was approximately five percent higher than his career average. Through his first 11 games with the Senators, he tallied three goals and nine points while generating 29 shots on goal. When he was on the ice at five-on-five per, the Senators generated 48.06 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.36 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 60 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 47.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). In his last 10 games, the center contributed two goals, five assists and 20 shots while the Senators' five-on-five shot and goal metrics cratered. These are incredibly small sample sizes, but if the Senators are serious about transitioning from a prospective playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender, they will need their second line to not only be productive but also tilt the ice in their team's favour against the opposition's best.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 15 | 40 | 55 | 0.69 |
Heading into the offseason, there were genuine concerns about whether the 37-year-old veteran remained a fit for the Ottawa Senators. Giroux's shot rate (iCF/60), shot on goal rate (iSF/60), goal rate (G/60), and expected goal rate (xG/60) were all easily the lowest of his career. Collectively, the Senators struggled to produce goals at five-on-five. Only the Nashville Predators finished with fewer five-on-five goals than the Senators. Giroux's offensive decline in 2024-25 could be a microcosm of the Senators' problems. Too often, it felt like the team chased quality at the expense of quantity, and he could afford to be more selfish with the puck. He scored on 10.9 percent of his shots last season, so he can still fire the puck. He also contributed 15 goals and 50 points, but it is reasonable to wonder how much his production would decline if he stopped playing the majority of his minutes with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. In fairness to Giroux, HockeyViz's data demonstrates he has continued to maintain strong isolated impacts on both offence and defence. Having the league's best faceoff rate, winning 61.5 percent, serves as a nice insulator for Stützle on important draws, but if the offence continues to diminish, it could create an opportunity for Drake Batherson or Fabian Zetterlund on the first line.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 22 | 25 | 47 | 0.57 |
Like Dylan Cozens, the addition of Fabian Zetterlund in the waning minutes of the trade deadline was an unexpected but welcomed depth move. The Swedish winger tallied 24 goals and 44 points during San Jose's 2023-24 season and was well on his way to surpassing those totals after he was dealt to the Senators. Unfortunately, for the second time in his career, Zetterlund struggled to produce following a deadline trade. During the 2022-23 campaign, he was dealt to the Sharks and failed to record a goal in 22 games. With the Senators, he only tallied two goals and five points in 20 games. His usage began modestly, starting on the fourth line with second power play unit duties. Zetterlund would eventually ascend the lineup, playing a variety of roles, but his lack of production elicited concern. The Senators signed him to a three-year extension carrying a $4.25 million AAV, so they do not share those worries. If his underlying metrics were commensurately unimpressive, it would be troubling. Instead, he ranked second on the team behind only Brady Tkachuk in several individual offensive stats, such as shot rate, expected goals, and scoring chances. Zetterlund was shooting the puck and creating chances at a career-high rate in Ottawa, but it coincided with a team-worst 3.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five. If he continues to generate high-rate stats while enjoying better luck, his production will inevitably match or better his career norms.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.56 |
Ridly Greig's sophomore season represented a marked step forward in many respects. He was the Senators' swiss-army-knife, moving up and down the lineup, filling a hole wherever needed. He averaged 17:05 of ice time per game last season, which marked a two-and-a-half-minute improvement over his previous year's number. This jump reflected the trust that Travis Green and the coaching staff had in Greig's defensive abilities. His most common linemates were Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio, and the trio was tasked nightly with the responsibility of shutting down the opposition's top line. This duty allowed him to shine in a pest role, where his knack for getting underneath the opponents' skin was effective. His line played well given their difficult assignments, generating 46.76 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.25 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 48.77 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 51.41 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). This line will likely start the year together in 2024-25, but the organization has historically referred to Greig as a center. If any of the Senators' centers fall to injury, expect Greig to wind up back in the middle. In the interim, he can be expected to play a significant defensive role on the third line and first penalty kill unit.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 23 | 26 | 49 | 0.61 |
Having lost the first half of his 2023-24 season to suspension following a league investigation into a gambling account, the 2024-25 campaign represented a blank slate for Pinto. The Senators' third line center responded by establishing new career highs in goals (21) and points (37) while predominantly getting matched against the opposition's most skilled forwards. The 2024-25 campaign is an important one for the center, who will turn 25 years old in November. Pinto is in the last year of a two-year extension that he signed in July of 2024, carrying a $3.75 million AAV. As one of the Senators' best defensive forwards, he has an opportunity to cash in on a long-term extension with a big year. The challenge will be to expand his offensive game. Goal scoring has never been the issue, as he averaged more than 21 goals per 82 games across the last three seasons. Zetterlund's addition at the deadline bumped Pinto from second-unit power play duties, and he finished the season averaging 1:07 of PP/TOI per game. Travis Green preferred to use the Pinto line out after a power play to match up against the opposition's skilled players. Adam Gaudette's departure as a free agent should create the opportunity to get more minutes on the power play, which should help boost his offensive numbers.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 74 | 18 | 24 | 42 | 0.57 |
Hardships characterized Perron's 2024-25 season campaign. His first half was derailed by a back injury and an illness to his unborn daughter that necessitated surgery during pregnancy and after she was born. Perron took a leave of absence from the team and did not play regularly until the end of January. He ultimately played 43 games for the Senators, scoring nine goals and 16 points and being the team's nominee for the Masterton Trophy. The 37-year-old is one of the slowest skaters in the league. Of all the forwards in the NHL who played more than 500 minutes, only four skaters recorded fewer 18-plus miles per hour bursts than Perron. Despite that lack of speed, he remains an effective player. He finished third on the Senators amongst regulars in individual expected goals per 60 behind Brady Tkachuk and Fabian Zetterlund. It speaks to his skill set that he can overcome his size and speed. Perron's competitiveness, ability to protect the puck, and willingness to go to the net and dig the puck out along the wall create an opportunity for his team to extend shifts in the offensive zone. This diversification of skills allows him to play in a variety of roles. Although he may be slated to start the season on the fourth line, he can seamlessly ascend the lineup and play in a more skilled role.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 14 | 48 | 62 | 0.77 |
It was almost a tale of two seasons for the smooth-skating Sanderson. He was supposed to start alongside his regular playing partner, Artem Zub, but a concussion and fractured foot injury forced the defenceman to miss 26 games in the first half of the season. Zub's absence and the organization's lack of faith in their depth options put the team in the uncomfortable position of relying on veteran Travis Hamonic. When this pairing was on the ice in their almost 400 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated 49.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.67 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 24.05 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 46.74 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). When he played with Zub, the numbers climbed to 51.28 CF%, 52.38 SF%, 47.38 GF%, and 55.59 xGF%. Separating Sanderson from one of the worst statistical defencemen in the league last season will do wonders for the player and the Senators. Of all the defencemen in the league last season who played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, only four had a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Sanderson. The worst? Travis Hamonic. Despite the circumstances, he finished with a career high of 11 goals and 57 points in 80 games, becoming the sixth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 50 points in a season. Sanderson is already a great defensive player, but Ottawa's improved defensive depth should allow him the opportunity he needs to continue to strengthen his offensive numbers and allow him to contend for a Norris Trophy.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 70 | 8 | 34 | 42 | 0.60 |
The 2024-25 season was an important one for the longest-tenured member of the Ottawa Senators. After undergoing corrective surgery to resolve a wrist problem that had afflicted him for years, Chabot responded with one of the most complete seasons of his career. He contributed nine goals and 45 points while posting significantly improved defensive metrics. Less was more for the Senators and Chabot as the defenceman's 23:01 of ice time per game represented his lowest average ice time since he averaged 17:31 per game as a rookie in 2017-18. Having a regular defensive partner in Nick Jensen assuredly helped, too. For years, Chabot's performance suffered because of injuries, overuse and a lack of continuity. In 2024-25, he put together one of his best seasons as a pro. His 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated Chabot as creating the fifth-highest amount of value amongst NHL defencemen. For the first half of the season, he had one of the highest WARs in the entire league, before Nick Jensen's hip injury impacted his effectiveness down the stretch. From October through December, this pairing was one of the best in the league, with the Senators generating 54.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 59.62 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 54.49 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). If the pairing can approach that level in 2025-26, Chabot should be in line for another strong season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 74 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 0.26 |
Acquired last summer with a draft selection in a trade for Jakob Chychrun, the deal was panned in some circles because it represented a sell-low value considering the opportunity cost used to acquire Chychrun the year prior. Rather than continue the previous regime's pattern of chasing names, Steve Staios and his staff prioritized good fits, and Jensen was one last season. His bottom line only shows three goals and 21 points in 71 games played, but his on-ice contributions and impact on partner Thomas Chabot were unmistakable. Jensen's ability to skate, retrieve pucks and move the puck competently served as a nice complement to Chabot. But, once Jensen suffered a chronic hip injury, it sank the pairing's numbers. In their final 43 games, the Senators only generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 44.74 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 46.67 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.33 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Jensen turns 35 years old this September, so it is reasonable to expect some level of decline in his game, but it will be worth monitoring how he recovers from this injury. The organization remains optimistic that he will be ready to start the season, but they need more than him to be available. The Senators need Jensen to resemble the player he was for the first three months of the 2024-25 season if they are to continue their ascent in the Eastern Conference.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 0.40 |
Heading into the offseason, the Senators' most significant need was to address their quality of depth on right defence. Thanks to the injuries that Artem Zub and Nick Jensen suffered last season, it became clear that the Senators could ill afford to give minutes and significant responsibilities to players who were simply out of their element. The addition of Spence serves as an insulator on that right side, and he is a good one. In 79 games for the Kings last season, the 24-year-old recorded four goals and 28 points while averaging 16:47 of ice time per game. His underlying metrics were excellent. When Spence was on the ice at five-on-five, the Kings generated 56.80 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.43 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 56.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). He did play sheltered minutes on one of the better defensive teams in the league, so that is something to be mindful of. He will likely be partnered with Tyler Kleven on the third pairing to start the season, but as an undersized defenceman, he could draw out for Nik Matinpalo depending on the matchup. At the very least, his exceptional puck-moving ability brings a dynamic to the right side that was previously lacking, and his presence affords the Senators the patience to develop the well-regarded prospect, Carter Yakemchuk, at the AHL level.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 63 | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | .910 | 2.75 |
Boston's loss was most certainly Ottawa's gain last year, as they got a chance to trot out one half of the league's most formidable tandem en route to the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2017. Linus Ullmark was crucial in Ottawa's step forward, providing the kind of consistency he's been counted on for years now; he rarely puts up games full of highlight-worthy saves, but his technique is hard to shake and it's rare he'll put up more than a handful of truly bad performances over the course of the entire year. And while prospect Mads Søgaard didn't quite live up to the hype once again during his limited NHL appearances, fellow prospect Leevi Merilainen was more than up to the task -- and he'll enter next season as the surprising backup darling to Ullmark as Ottawa looks to prove they can string together consecutive postseason appearances.
The biggest question mark for Ottawa will be just how many games Merilainen can take on over the course of the regular season, since Ullmark plays his best hockey when he's able to manage his workload and split starts more regularly. If Merilainen struggles to step into a true tandem role, Ullmark's health becomes a concern. For a team that spent more than a few years desperately trying to chase the reliable presence Craig Anderson brought to the crease, though, Ullmark is a welcome face - and if Merilainen is able to continue progressing as a tandem backup, Ottawa could become a real threat.
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The season’s underway, but it’s important not to read too much into the early numbers. Instead, it’s better to focus on how players are being utilized, especially which players seem to be getting new opportunities this season.
In our first Look Ahead of the 2024-25 campaign, I’ll be focused on highlighting players in such positions and discuss what we might see from them this year.
Buffalo will be on the road next week, but the competition is relatively favorable with visits to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Columbus on Thursday and Chicago on Saturday.
The Sabres started their season with three straight losses while managing just one goal in each of those games. Fans weren’t expecting them to be Stanley Cup contenders, but the hope is that they’ll at least compete for a playoff spot this campaign, especially given that they haven’t been to the postseason since 2011. Still, it’s very early, and the upcoming schedule is favorable, so there’s an opportunity here for Buffalo to make up some lost ground.
Zach Benson in particular is one to watch in Buffalo. The 19-year-old didn’t stand out as a rookie with his 11 goals and 30 points across 71 games, but it was impressive for the No. 13 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft to make the jump straight from WHL Winnipeg to the NHL. The only other players from his draft class that logged at least 40 games last season were No. 1-3 picks Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli.
Benson should do significantly better this season, especially given how he’s been utilized so far. He averaged 18:16 of ice time over his first two games this season, up from 14:31 in 2023-24. Of particular note is the fact that Benson has averaged 4:16 with the man advantage this year. He logged just two power-play points last year, so there’s a lot of room for increased production there.
Bowen Byram is also getting plenty of power-play ice time -- an average of 3:39 through three contests. He was never utilized much with the man advantage during his Avalanche days and consequently went into this campaign with just eight career power-play points. If Buffalo continues to use him in this way, then Byram might take a big leap up from his 29-point showing in 2023-24.
Carolina has a trio of contests next week against teams that failed to make the playoffs in 2023-24. The Hurricanes will host the Devils on Tuesday, then visit Pittsburgh and St. Louis on Friday and Saturday, respectively.
The Hurricanes haven’t made their season debut at the time of writing, but one player I’m very interested in is Brent Burns. He’s recorded at least 40 points in 10 of his past 11 seasons, and you’d have to go back to 2013-14 when he was utilized as a forward to find the last time he averaged less than 20 minutes per game over the course of a season. Still, he’s 39 now with his 40th birthday coming March 9, so I have to wonder how much more he has left in the tank. It wouldn’t surprise me if Burns’ role is somewhat reduced this campaign, and he might even serve on the No. 2 power-play unit with Shayne Gostisbehere being utilized on the first. For that reason, it wouldn’t shock me if Burns ends up with closer to 30 points instead of 40.
This might prove to be an up-season for Jack Roslovic, though. After signing a one-year, $2.8 million contract with Carolina over the summer, Roslovic seems set to skate on the top line alongside Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho. That’s a great position for the 27-year-old to be in after he was limited to nine goals and 31 points across 59 regular-season outings between Columbus and the Rangers in 2023-24.
The Blackhawks will play in Calgary on Tuesday before heading home for contests against the Sharks and Sabres on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. None of Chicago’s competitors next week made the playoffs.
Not that the Blackhawks made the playoffs either -- far from it, they finished with a 23-53-6 record. Chicago isn’t expected to do much better this season, but the team does have a bit more veteran help.
Teuvo Teravainen signed a three-year, $16.2 million contract with Chicago over the summer and is getting a chance to play alongside Connor Bedard. That duo has already developed some chemistry with Bedard setting up Teravainen’s goal in Chicago’s season opener versus Utah on Tuesday.
Bedard is a legitimate candidate to finish with over 80 points this season after recording 22 goals and 61 points across 68 contests as a rookie, so naturally playing on his line is the best assignment Chicago can offer. Still, the Blackhawks’ second unit might not be as lackluster as it was in 2023-24. Tyler Bertuzzi was also lured to Chicago over the summer, inking a four-year, $22 million contract, and he figures to serve primarily on the second line alongside Taylor Hall, who missed all-but 10 games last season due to a knee injury.
Bertuzzi and Hall aren’t likely to set the league on fire, but they could put up decent numbers this year, especially while sharing the ice with Philipp Kurashev, who was second to Bedard in Blackhawks scoring in 2023-24 with 54 points (18 goals).
None of this is likely to help goaltender Petr Mrazek much, though. He did his best for the rebuilding squad last year, but still finished with an 18-31-4 record, 3.04 GAA and .907 save percentage in 56 games. He’ll probably have rough numbers again this time around.
The Avalanche will be busy next week, hosting the Islanders on Monday, Boston on Wednesday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then head to San Jose for a contest Sunday.
The hope in Colorado is that Gabriel Landeskog (knee) will make his return this season, but there’s no timetable for that. He hasn’t played since June 26, 2022. The Avalanche are currently also missing Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder) and Valeri Nichushkin (suspension), which leaves their top six a little thin. Adding to the Avalanche’s woes, Jonathan Drouin is hurt now too, and the team announced Friday that he was likely to miss the next few games.
Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen can be counted on to carry the offense on most nights and Drouin has been an effective option to share the ice with them, but he’s hurt so the Avalanche will need a replacement. Perhaps the 22-year-old Ivan Ivan or the veteran Miles Wood will get a look in that spot. Neither is anything close to an ideal option for Colorado, but either would see a temporary boost in fantasy value by virtue of playing alongside two elite forwards.
Then there’s the second line. Casey Mittelstadt is the obvious option to center it, but finding wingers for him is a bigger challenge.
For now, the 19-year-old Calum Ritchie appears to be getting a chance on the second unit. He does have a good amount of offensive upside, so he’s worth keeping an eye on, but it remains to be seen if he’s ready to serve a big role in the NHL at this time. Nikolai Kovalenko also got a look on the second line during Wednesday’s 8-4 loss to Vegas. Kovalenko was reassigned to the minors Thursday, but that might just be a paper transaction for cap purposes, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him promptly recalled before Colorado’s next contest.
Like Ritchie, Wednesday’s game was Kovalenko is largely unproven in the NHL, but the 24-year-old has years’ worth of experience in the KHL. He accumulated 32 goals and 89 points over 98 regular-season games with Nizhny Novgorod Torpedo between 2022-23 and 20223-24. He might be worth a short-term pickup if Colorado does continue to utilize Kovalenko in a second-line role, but keep in mind he’ll likely dip in the depth charts once Colorado has at least one or two of Lehkonen, Nichushkin or Landeskog available.
Keep in mind that with Drouin hurt, it’s also possible that Ritchie or Kovalenko will get a look on the top line, which would further thin the second unit, but it just speaks to how difficult a position Colorado is in for the moment.
The Kings are on the road next week, but they have four games on the docket, including three versus teams that failed to make the playoffs in 2023-24. They’ll be in Canada to kickoff the week, visiting Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Los Angeles will then head closer to home to play against the Ducks on Sunday.
This is part of a larger seven-game road trip to open the season. Crypto.com Arena, the home of the Kings, has been undergoing renovations, which is why the Kings’ home opener isn’t until Oct. 24. The silver lining is LA will play 13 of their final 19 games at home, so don’t be surprised if the Kings end the regular season on a high note.
Of course, they would rather not be dependent on a late push to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, LA already is off to a rough start after losing Drew Doughty to an ankle injury that will sideline him for months. His absence increases the importance of 23-year-old Jordan Spence, who logged 22:07 of ice time in LA’s season opener Thursday, including 4:26 with the man advantage. That’s a huge jump from his average of 14:26 in 2023-24 and makes Spence an interesting pickup option. He had two goals and 24 points in 71 regular-season contests last campaign, which isn’t remarkable, but also not bad given his previously limited role. He’s also shown a lot of offensive potential at the AHL level, recording 87 points across 102 regular-season appearances between 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Getting a good season out of Spencer would go a long way towards improving the Kings’ playoff aspirations, but goaltender Darcy Kuemper’s performance figures to hold more weight. He’s coming off a rough campaign with Washington in which he had a 14-13-3 record, 3.31 GAA and .890 save percentage across 33 regular-season contests, but he’s moving from a team that was mediocre defensively last season (Washington ranked 19th with a 3.15 xGA/60, per moneypuck) to one of the strongest defenses (LA finished sixth with 2.82 xGA/60), so that might help the veteran goaltender rebound.
The Sheldon Keefe-era in New Jersey will continue next week with games in Carolina and Ottawa on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as home games versus Utah and Washington on Monday and Saturday, respectively.
Dougie Hamilton, who was limited to 20 games last season due to a pectoral injury, hasn’t recorded a point through three games in 2024-25, but the most important thing is he’s averaged 4:35 of power-play ice time over that span. The big question, though, is what’s going to happen once Luke Hughes (shoulder) and Hamilton are healthy at the same time. Hughes took over as the Devils’ top power-play quarterback during Hamilton’s absence last year and flourished in that role, but there’s no guarantee Hughes will be in that position over Hamilton once the 21-year-old Hughes is healthy. It's a situation worth monitoring closely because the outcome should have a significant impact on both of those defensemen’s fantasy value.
Seamus Casey is also a consideration in all this. The 20-year-old rookie defenseman recorded his first NHL point when he found the back of the net on the power play during New Jersey’s 3-1 victory over Buffalo on Oct. 5. Casey is on the second power-play unit, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him lose that role once Hughes is healthy. Losing that assignment might prevent Casey from generating enough offensive production to be appealing in standard fantasy leagues this season, but he does have long-term upside. The Florida native scored seven goals and 45 points across 40 games with the University of Michigan last season.
Regardless of who is playing with the man advantage, New Jersey figures to be a high-scoring team this season so long as they can stay relatively healthy -- something that evaded the Devils last season. That should aid Jacob Markstrom, who was acquired from Calgary over the summer. Markstrom is a goaltender capable of outshining the defense in front of him, and with that goal support, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit the 30-win mark for just the second time in his career.
Pittsburgh is set to play in Montreal on Monday before a two-game home stint involving the Sabres on Wednesday and the Hurricanes on Friday. The Penguins will conclude the week with a road contest versus Winnipeg on Sunday.
Being a largely veteran team led by aging superstars Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang, there isn’t much room for surprise here, but injuries have resulted in a bit of a shakeup. Bryan Rust (lower body) would typically play alongside Crosby, but he missed the first two games of the campaign and his status for next week remains in question. For now, Anthony Beauvillier is on the top line and is taking full advantage, providing a pair of goals Thursday, both assisted by Crosby.
Pittsburgh is also missing Alex Nedeljkovic (lower body), which led to Joel Blomqvist making his NHL debut Thursday. Blomqvist saved 29 of 32 shots en route to a 6-3 victory over Detroit. It wasn’t a bad showing, and given Tristan Jarry’s struggles -- he lost the starting gig toward the end of the 2023-24 campaign and opened this season by surrendering six goals on 40 shots to the Rangers -- it will be interesting to see how much work Blomqvist gets before Nedeljkovic returns. Pittsburgh’s schedule isn’t tight enough to pressure the Penguins to use a backup next week, but Blomqvist might get a start all the same if Nedeljkovic remains unavailable.
The Sharks will begin the week with a three-game road trip involving stops in Dallas on Tuesday, Chicago on Thursday and Winnipeg on Friday. San Jose will end the week by hosting the Avalanche on Sunday.
Not much is expected of the Sharks this season, but the presence of 2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini gives them something to be excited about. Celebrini immediately made his presence felt, recording a goal and an assist in his debut Thursday, though San Jose still lost that game in overtime to St. Louis. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Celebrini’s track this season be somewhat similar to what we saw out of Bedard last year. Like Bedard, Celebrini is an elite prospect joining a team that will utilize him on the first line and top power-play unit.
Unfortunately, like Bedard, Celebrini might not play the full 82 games as a rookie. The 18-year-old missed Friday’s practice because of a lower-body injury and as of the time of writing is still being evaluated. The Sharks just have to hope that it’s nothing that will keep Celebrini off the ice for long.
When Celebrini is healthy, playing alongside him is by far the best assignment the Sharks can offer. William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli were the first to serve as his wingers. Eklund is an especially interesting option. He logged his first full NHL campaign in 2023-24, providing 16 goals and 45 points across 80 games. The 21-year-old is another important piece of the Sharks’ future and could make major strides this season, especially if he develops chemistry with Celebrini.
The 19-year-old Will Smith is another key part of that youth movement. He made his NHL debut Thursday, so his performance didn’t draw the same kind of praise afforded to Celebrini -- Smith had no points and two shots in 13:41 of ice time. If Celebrini does miss a time due to injury, then it might be Smith who moves up to the top line.
Also keep an eye on Logan Couture’s (groin) situation. It doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to returning after logging just six contests last season, but getting the 35-year-old back would naturally big a significant boost to the Sharks’ offense. Couture might play alongside Celebrini at even strength once he’s healthy, and at the least, the two would share the ice during the power play.
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Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. With so few games played, this week will look at some players getting exciting opportunities to start the year, including Dylan Guenther, Alex Laferriere, Matvei Michkov, and more!
Here is this season’s first edition of 20 Fantasy Points:
#1 Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov was helped off the ice after suffering an apparent injury in Ottawa on Thursday night. If Barkov misses any time, Anton Lundell could be an intriguing addition for fantasy managers. Lundell is in his fourth NHL season and while he has not yet matched the 44 points that he had as a rookie, he did have 17 points in 24 playoff games last season. Lundell has one assist and nine shots on goal through the Panthers’ first two games.
#2 It has been a whirlwind year for Utah Hockey Club right winger Dylan Guenther, who finished last season with a flourish, putting up 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in his last 23 games. That earned him a contract extension in the summer. The 8-year, $57.14 million contract seemed like a lot given his lack of NHL experience, but it might already be a bargain. Teammates gush about Guenther’s shot and he has started this season with four goals in his first two games. As great as Guenther’s shot is, he is not going to keep scoring on 50 percent of his shots on goal, but there are early indications that Guenther and centre Logan Cooley are poised to have breakthrough seasons for Utah, with both skating on the second line and getting top unit power play time.
#3 Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov is the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy, and it’s not merely based on his track record in Russia, which is admittedly excellent. Michkov had 41 points in 48 KHL games last season and the 19-year-old is starting his NHL career on Philadelphia’s top line and first power play unit. The Flyers are opening the season with Ducks defenseman Jamie Drysdale getting first crack at quarterbacking the Flyers’ power play. Drysdale is a smooth skater who has tallied 15 of his 50 career points on the power play.
#4 Former Flyers prospect Cutter Gauthier was traded to Anaheim last season and the Ducks are putting Gauthier in position to succeed, giving him time on the first line (with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn) and top power play right out of the gate. Gauthier had 65 points (38 G, 27 A) in 41 games as a sophomore at Boston College last season and he has impressive international credentials too, scoring nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 10 games at the 2023 World Championships and 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in seven games at the 2024 World Juniors.
#5 Second-year Los Angeles Kings left winger Alex Laferriere is starting the season on the Kings’ No. 1 line and top power play unit. Laferriere had 23 points (12 G, 11 A) as a rookie. He produced 73 points (35 G, 38 A) in 69 games in two seasons at Harvard, so there could be some offensive upside there, but with limited pedigree, he may be in a precarious position if he hits a slump.
#6 Kings defenseman Drew Doughty is out month-to-month after breaking his ankle in the preseason, so the expectation was that Brandt Clarke would move up to play on the Kings’ top power play unit. In Los Angeles’ first game, however, Jordan Spence played 4:26 on the power play for the Kings, compared to Brandt’s 3:34, so that is a situation worth keeping an eye on to see how it shakes out.
#7 With winger J.J. Peterka getting hurt in Prague, the Sabres have inserted top prospect Jiri Kulich into the lineup, taking Peterka’s place on Buffalo’s top line. Kulich was a first-round pick in 2022, and the 20-year-old winger has already played two seasons in the AHL, putting up 91 points (51 G, 40 A) in 119 games for Rochester.
#8 Montreal Canadiens rookie defenceman Lane Hutson is not quarterbacking Montreal’s top power play, but it may only be a matter of time. Hutson had a pair of assists against Boston on Thursday, giving him four assists in his first four NHL games, going back to last season. He produced 97 points (30 G, 67 A) in 77 games across two seasons at Boston University.
#9 A late summer free agent signing, Jack Roslovic is getting a chance to play on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. Roslovic set career highs of 22 goals and 45 points in 2021-2022, but if he is playing on Carolina’s top line, he could challenge those numbers.
#10 The Calgary Flames are entering a rebuilding process and part of that is giving young players significant opportunities. Samuel Honzek, a 2023 first-round pick has not only made the team, but he is getting a look on Calgary’s top line, alongside Nazem Kadri and Andrei Kuzmenko. Honzek, a 6-foot-4 winger, does not have a power play role yet, so his fantasy appeal is limited, but is very interesting as a long-term prospect. Connor Zary, a 2022 first-round pick, is taking on a bigger role in his second NHL season. Zary had 34 points (14 G, 20 A) in 63 games as a rookie last season and is getting first unit power play time to start this season. He scored a beauty in overtime to help the Flames to a win in Calgary on opening night and that should only fuel his confidence.
#11 There are times that it seems like there is a revolving door on Sidney Crosby’s wings in Pittsburgh, so don’t necessarily dive head-first into supporting these players, but Anthony Beauvillier and Drew O’Connor are skating on Sidney Crosby’s wings, at least while Bryan Rust remains out of the Penguins lineup. Beauvillier is coming off a down season, in which he scored just 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 60 games, but he did net a pair of goals in Thursday’s win at Detroit. O’Connor had 33 points (16 G, 17 A) in 79 games last season and added a goal against Detroit.
#12 Opportunity is knocking in St. Louis for Dylan Holloway and Jake Neighbours, who are skating on a line with Robert Thomas, the Blues’ brilliant playmaking center. Holloway, who was signed to an offer sheet to lure him away from Edmonton in the summer, has one assist while averaging 15:02 ice time per game in his first two games with St. Louis. He averaged 10:21 of ice time per game in 89 games with the Oilers over the past two seasons. Neighbours broke through with a 27-goal season, including eight on the power play in 2023-2024 and should continue to play an even more prominent role in the Blues’ attack.
#13 Still eligible for the Calder Trophy after scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 24 games for the Dallas Stars last season, Logan Stankoven is starting the 2024-2025 season on Dallas’ top line, skating on the right side with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Stankoven only played 12:29 in a season-opening win at Nashville on Thursday, but he also put up three assists, so that should keep him in a prime position.
#14 The New York Islanders signed Russian winger Maxim Tsyplakov as a free agent after he had 47 points (31 G, 16 A) in 65 games for Moscow Spartak in the KHL last season. The 26-year-old forward scored in his NHL debut against Utah on Thursday, and played an eye-popping 20:46, including 7:38 on the power play. Getting first unit power play time with the Islanders is a great opportunity for Tsyplakov to build on last season’s career-best results in the KHL.
#15 After scoring 40 points (21 G, 19 A) in 82 games as a rookie last season, Marco Rossi is centering Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on Minnesota’s top line to start the 2024-2025 season. He is not getting first unit power play time – that goes to Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Brock Faber – but if Rossi can stick alongside Kaprizov long-term, that will raise his offensive ceiling.
#16 Oft-injured Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is healthy to start the season and getting a prime opportunity to skate on the Sens’ to power play, ahead of veteran Claude Giroux. Norris had 55 points (35 G, 20 A) in 66 games in 2021-2022, but has managed 33 points (18 G, 15 A) in 55 games across the past two seasons since then while dealing with persistent shoulder problems. Norris played more than 18 minutes in Ottawa’s season-opening win against Florida, recording an assist while skating on a line with Ridly Greig and Drake Batherson. If he’s healthy, Norris could offer quality fantasy value.
#17 With Florida Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist out of the lineup after taking a puck in the face during the Panthers’ opening game, Aaron Ekblad is listed on Florida’s top power play unit, though Uvis Balinskis saw more power play time in Thursday’s loss at Ottawa. Ekblad is likely to play a big role on the Panthers’ blueline and has frequently been a contributor on the power play, with 111 of his 348 career points coming via the man advantage. Last season, he had just four power play points while delivering 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 51 games, but with Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson departing via free agency, there are minutes to be earned on the Panthers power play. A healthy Boqvist might have the inside track, but Ekblad’s experience should not be overlooked.
#18 The Nashville Predators were movers and shakers in free agency and the arrival of 40-goal scorers Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault bumped Gustav Nyquist off Nashville’s top power play unit. Nyquist recorded a career-high 75 points last season, including 24 points on the power play, but he is not the same kind of proven scoring option, so that leaves Nyquist on the second power play unit in Nashville.
#19 Stamkos’ old team, the Tampa Bay Lightning are sorting out their own power play set up in his absence. To start the season, the Lightning are running two defencemen – Victor Hedman and Darren Raddysh – on their top power play unit, which is very unusual these days. Hedman has been a power play threat throughout his career, including last season when 31 of his 76 points were accrued with the man advantage. Raddysh, the 28-year-old blueliner, is something of a late bloomer, but he did have 33 points, including 11 on the power play, last season, which was his first full NHL campaign. It will be interesting to see how the Lightning play this going forward, whether they stick with the two defencemen or whether someone like Brandon Hagel or Nick Paul finds a spot on the top power play unit.
#20 After going through some tough seasons, including spending time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, Jakub Vrana has returned to Washington, where his NHL career began, and earned a contract with the Capitals. Vrana, 28, has been an outstanding five-on-five scorer. Sincer 2018-2019, Vrana has scored 1.41 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. Among players that have played more than 50 games, there are only two – Auston Matthews (1.66) and David Pastrnak (1.41) – who rank higher than Vrana in that metric, and Pastrnak and Vrana are virtually tied. This doesn’t mean that Vrana is automatically going to provide fantasy value, as he has rarely been a power play performer, but for a player who was on the verge of washing out of the league, he is getting a fresh start and has the track record to suggest that he could be a productive secondary scorer for the Capitals.
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As the NHL season approaches, training camps are in full swing and preseason action is underway. That means that changes are already taking place with injuries and opportunities changing every day.
Los Angeles Kings defenceman Drew Doughty suffered a broken ankle that leaves him out month-to-month. That is a huge loss for the Kings but, it means new opportunities because someone will have to fill the void that is created by Doughty’s injury. Brandt Clarke was already poised to play a regular role on the Kings blueline but could step into a role on the Kings’ first power play unit. Clarke has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 25 career games and half of those points have come with the man advantage. If not Clarke, Jordan Spence could step up, too. He had 24 points (2 G, 22 A) in 71 games last season, with six points on the power play. Clarke has the better pedigree. He was selected eighth overall in the 2021 Draft and produced 46 points (10 G, 36 A) in 50 games in the AHL last season.
Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson underwent emergency surgery for an appendectomy and that will keep him out for 3-6 weeks. If he only missed three weeks, that will not cost him too many starts, but if it’s closer to the other end of the spectrum, there will be more games for Lukas Dostal. While Dostal appeared in 44 games for the Ducks last season, he managed just 13 wins and had a .902 save percentage, which is not enough to believe that he is going to have significant fantasy value this season.
With Brandon Montour signing in Seattle, it appears that Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist is getting a look as the quarterback on Florida’s No. 1 power play unit. He has never played more than 52 games in an NHL season and has 85 points (23 G. 62 A) in 209 games, with 29 of those points coming on the power play. However, there are 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes across the past three seasons and Boqvist ranks 50th with 3.32 points per 60 minutes and 55th with 4.88 on-ice GF/60. To his slight credit, he ranks 41st with 6.84 xGF/60 in those situations. If Boqvist ultimately can’t handle the role, Aaron Ekblad could be lurking as a possible quarterback on PP1.
On a team that already boasts Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, it appears that Noah Hanifin is getting an opportunity to skate with the top power play in Vegas. Hanifin recorded 47 points last season, with 13 points on the power play, including five of his 12 points with Vegas after he was acquired from Calgary. While Hanifin ranked fifth with 11.87 shots per 60 minutes during five-on-four play across the past three seasons, he ranked 29th with 4.35 points per 60 minutes. He also ranked 50th with 5.80 on-ice goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is a position of relative strength for the Golden Knights, so if Hanifin isn’t getting the job done on the first power play, they have two more options who have experienced some success in that role.
The Utah Hockey Club has some promise heading into the season, not the least of which is related to a couple of young forwards who finished hot last season and could be poised for big things in 2024-2025. Right winger Dylan Guenther just signed an eight-year contract extension for more than $57 million, even though he has played just 78 NHL games, but the ninth pick in the 2021 Draft has an awe-inspiring shot and finished last season with 17 points (9 G, 8 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Pair Guenther with Logan Cooley, the third pick in the 2022 Draft, who finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting last season and he had 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in his last 16 games. Two young players finishing with that kind of production offers temptation for what they might be able to accomplish this season. The answer could be: more than you think.
Devils defenceman Luke Hughes, who finished third in Norris Trophy voting last season, could miss the first month of the regular season due to a shoulder injury suffered in offseason training. Hughes’ injury opens the door for Simon Nemec, another highly drafted defenceman going into his second NHL season, to take on a bigger role including time on the Devils’ second power play unit. Nemec had 19 points (3 G, 16 A) in 60 games as a rookie, but could certainly improve on that if he can secure regular time with the man advantage.
The last time that Tomas Tatar was skating for the New Jersey Devils, he produced 20 goals and 48 points during the 2022-2023 season. Last season, between Colorado and Seattle, Tatar managed just 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 70 games. He played 12:27 per game, his lowest average since 2012-2013. But right now it looks like Tatar has a chance to skate on the Devils’ second line, with Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer, which would put Tatar much more in line to produce 40-plus points again.
Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander is getting a training camp look at centre ice, which does shuffle up the forward lines, sending John Tavares to the third line. Nylander at center allows the Leafs to play Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok on his wings, while Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann can skate on Tavares’ wings, giving Toronto better scoring depth. Of course, Max Pacioretty would seem like a logical fit in a middle six role following his tryout, so Jarnkrok or McMann would seem like candidates to move down the depth chart, unless Robertson is moved out.
Philadelphia Flyers rookie right winger Matvei Michkov is either the favorite or co-favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in the NHL. The seventh pick in the 2023 Draft, Michkov had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 47 KHL games last season. He is looking at the opportunity to start the season on the Flyers’ second line while receiving first unit power play time. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) through his first two preseason games, which has done nothing to turn down the hype machine but maybe it’s deserved.
After managing a career-low five goals and 17 points for Vancouver and Nashville last season, Anthony Beauvillier is the epitome of a buy-low performer. He is also looking at the potential opportunity to skate on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby. It can be a revolving door on Crosby’s wing, but the opportunity to skate with such an elite centre would elevate Beauvillier’s scoring potential, at least making him relevant for fantasy owners. He has never scored more than 40 points in a season, but that career high happened one year before his career low performance.
The Seattle Kraken appear to be giving free agent acquisition Brandon Montour a shot to quarterback the top power play unit. Across the previous three seasons, among the 57 defencemen to play at least 200 minutes Montour ranked 20th with 4.69 points per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Dunn ranked 33rd with 4.26 points per 60, which is not a dramatic different. When it comes to on-ice goals for per 60 minutes, Montour ranked tenth, with 10.02, while Dunn ranked 47th with 6.16. Since they were operating on different teams, it seems that these numbers would be heavily influenced by the talent around them.
With Torey Krug likely to miss the season as he deals with a bad ankle, Justin Faulk is getting the opportunity to run the Blues’ top power play unit. Faulk has experience in the role, with 134 of his 426 career points coming with the man advantage. If Faulk can’t guide the unit successfully, Scott Perunovich, Colton Parayko and Philip Broberg could all be viable candidates, too.
With an uncertain timeline for the return to action of goaltender Thatcher Demko, the Vancouver Canucks have signed Kevin Lankinen, to pair with Artrus Silovs in the crease while they wait. Lankinen has been a quality backup, posting a .912 save percentage in 43 games with Nashville over the past two seasons, but he could be required to handle a larger percentage of the action, at least while Demko is sidelined. Silovs has flashed potential but has started a total of 19 NHL games, nine during the regular season and 10 in the playoffs. He has a .898 save percentage in those games, so the 23-year-old netminder is still a work in progress as he tries to establish himself as a full-time NHLer.
With Elvis Merzlikins coming off a terrible season, and big changes in the Blue Jackets organization, it could be time for 25-year-old goaltender Daniil Tarasov to get the starter’s job in Columbus. Tarasov has a .905 save percentage in 45 career games, which is enough to at least consider him in a tandem with Merzlikins, but it would not take much for Tarasov to become the first option for the rebuilding Blue Jackets.
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Review: The Kings’ old guard of Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty were combined in 2022-23 with a newer cast entering its prime to form a competitive squad. Kopitar, Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault and Doughty each exceeded the 50-point mark, giving Los Angeles a nice variety of offensive threats. The defense was top-notch too, allowing the third fewest five-on-five expected goals against (158.72). If only Los Angeles had adequate goaltending. Jonathan Quick entered the campaign at 36 and seemed to be running on empty, posting a 3.50 GAA and an .876 save percentage in 31 contests. Pheonix Copley was better, but still less than ideal with his 2.64 GAA and .903 save percentage in 37 games. It wasn’t until Los Angeles dealt Quick to Columbus in exchange for Joonas Korpisalo on March 1 that the Kings’ goaltending situation stabilized, though Los Angeles still lost to Edmonton in the first round after finishing the regular season with a 47-25-10 record.
What’s Changed? It cost the Kings forwards Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and Gabriel Vilardi, but they acquired Pierre-Luc Dubois from Winnipeg, providing Los Angeles with a great second-line center today and a successor to Kopitar tomorrow. Korpisalo left as a free agent, so Los Angeles inked netminder Cam Talbot to a one-year, $1 million contract.
What would success look like? Throwing Dubois into what was already a strong offense could conceivably make Los Angeles one of the top-five scoring teams. The defense is also a good bet to remain among the league’s best, so what the Kings really need is a solid season out of Talbot. While he had a subpar 2.93 GAA and .898 save percentage in 36 contests with Ottawa last season, Talbot’s goals saved above expected last season was just -0.7, which suggests that he was only slightly below average after factoring out the team in front of him. So, when you pair Talbot with a world-class defense, you might not get something magical, but you should get a solid performance.
What could go wrong? Then again, Talbot is 36 years old and Los Angeles just saw how rough things can get for a goaltender in the twilight of their career. At worst Los Angeles has another Quick situation on its hands. Similarly, who knows how much Kopitar, also 36, has left in the tank. The one-two punch of Kopitar and Dubois might not play out as well as hoped, especially given that Dubois might need some time to adjust to his new team, which could lead to him disappointing early on.
Top Breakout Candidate: Given enough time, the Kings might have had a successor for Kopitar even without Dubois in Quinton Byfield. As it is, Byfield should still make big strides this season after finishing 2022-23 with three goals and 22 points in 53 contests. While his natural position is center, the Kings’ current depth up the middle is likely to shift him to the wing, and there’s a good chance he secures a top-six spot in the process. With 99 NHL games now under his belt, the 2020 second overall pick is a solid bet to take advantage of such an opportunity.
There’s an argument to be made that Anze Kopitar is one of the more underappreciated star players of this generation. He’s played nearly 1,300 games and has 1,141 points in 17 seasons with the Kings and as he heads into his 36-year-old season, he’s coming off leading the Kings in scoring last year with 74 points, including 28 goals and his second Lady Byng Trophy. He did this while he captained the Kings back to the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Kopitar continued to do all the little things that have made him an elite player for more than a decade. He had his 10th straight season with 50 or more points and his eighth season with 70-or-more points, his first one since 2017-2018 when he had 92. Overall, it was his best offensive season since 17-18 as he scored at nearly a point-per-game pace. While the offense was outstanding, he also faced many of the Kings’ toughest opposing players head-on and maintained steadily positive possession numbers against them while also putting up strong expected goal percentages. That he did this at 35 is impressive because this is usually when all players start slowing down. Kopitar will continue this season to be a mentor to Quinton Byfield, having him on his wing and looking to help guide him to being the next great center in L.A.
When it came to scoring goals for the Kings, no one did it as often or as efficiently as Adrian Kempe. He led Los Angeles with 41 goals which put him in the top-15 in the league (13th). Kempe excelled while on the wing with Anze Kopitar up the middle and took advantage of his outstanding playmaking abilities. He was also best on the team in power play goals with 11, one better than Viktor Arvidsson. Kempe wasn’t just an offensive weapon at 5-on-5 and the power play, however, he also scored three shorthanded goals to put a scare into opponents when he was on the ice killing penalties. Kempe proved to be a threat to score anytime he was on the ice as he also posted 27 goals at even strength. Being an all-around menace to opponents is a great quality to have when it comes to offense because it makes opponents uneasy. Kempe’s evolution into a big-time goal scorer the past two seasons (he scored 35 two years ago) has helped the Kings fill the void left by Dustin Brown’s retirement. Kempe’s style is much different, however, as he’s able to use his very good shot to score goals as opposed to mucking things up around the net. That he’s found a home alongside Kopitar puts him in position to score every shift of every game.
It feels like we’ve been waiting for some time for Quinton Byfield to explode offensively in the NHL and if last season was any indication, that breakout season might just be on the way. Byfield found a home on a line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe last season and played more than 500 minutes with them at 5-on-5. Their advanced numbers together were strong in terms of possession and expected goals. While Kopitar led the Kings in scoring and Kempe led the way in goals, Byfield’s stats were much more modest, yet still the best of his young NHL career. He had a career high 22 points in 53 games with three of those being goals. He saw some time on the power play and had a power play goal, but he hasn’t become a mainstay with the extra man. Byfield’s played 99 career games in the NHL, and he’s been very carefully eased into becoming a regular NHL player. If he can play a full 82 games and do so with Kopitar and Kempe often, it’s hard to see how that wouldn’t translate into more goals and points. Byfield is also 21 years old and had his development stunted because of the pandemic. He was the No. 2 pick in 2020 and given how he produced in junior hockey, it’s difficult to believe he won’t break out eventually.
The Kings felt they had a need to add another center who could fill the net and make them a better team that can advance deeper into the postseason. They made a blockbuster trade with Winnipeg to acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois to make it happen. They gave up picks and prospects to land the 25-year-old pivot and heir apparent to the No. 1 center spot and Dubois will give the Kings a much deeper attack at center in general. While Phillip Danault has been outstanding as the No. 2 center the past two seasons, putting Dubois in that spot with his more natural offensive instincts and abilities makes L.A. that much more dangerous offensively and it’ll help the Kings more because Danault can now shut down opponents from the third line and be able to produce more offense from that spot as well. Dubois has been a strong scorer throughout his career with Columbus and Winnipeg but is coming off his most productive season in which he had a career high 63 points with 27 goals. Like the Kings, the Jets were a playoff team and Dubois was vital to their success, but now that he’s joining L.A., he’s part of a roster that’s both deeper up front and on defense as well as having an abundance of scoring wingers. He signed an eight-year, $68 million extension as part of the sign-and-trade deal with the Kings and how he fits in will be more than worth watching.
No player on the Kings was as productive as Kevin Fiala last season. Fiala finished second on the team in points with 72 (Kopitar led the way with 74) but missed 13 games due to injury. He racked up a team-leading 49 assists to help pad out his point total, but his 23 goals tied him with Gabriel Vilardi for fourth most on the team. After coming over from Minnesota in a trade last summer, it was fascinating to see how Fiala was going to fit into what the Kings were doing offensively. As it turned out, they couldn’t have asked for a better player to fit into their scheme. Fiala spent part of the season working on a line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe but also played a host of 5-on-5 minutes with Blake Lizotte and Viktor Arvidsson, the latter of whom he was teammates in Nashville. The offensive numbers really popped with Kopitar and Kempe, as could be expected, but it’s the ability to play with anyone in the Kings lineup that helps immensely. Certainly, Fiala is not a player L.A. wants to be playing fewer minutes with less-offensively creative players, but if he can lift them up offensively, that’s good for everyone involved. With the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois it will be interesting to see how coach Todd McLellan sets his lines and who Fiala joins up front.
While the Kings have a host of exciting veteran scorers, one of their more exciting and growing more consistent goal providers is Arthur Kaliyev. Last season in 56 games, Kaliyev had 13 goals and 28 points and nearly doubled his output from the previous year when he had 27 points in 80 games. Kaliyev was an offensive spark plug for L.A. He averaged 11:41 of ice time per game, essentially third line minutes, but his even strength goals for per 60 made him one of the more productive forwards on the team. A blocked shot led to a lower-body injury that cost him 26 games last season, but the 22-year-old 2019 second-round pick was able to return during the postseason and played two games against Edmonton. Kaliyev’s upside is tremendous and with the addition of Dubois to the lineup it should help allow Kaliyev more opportunity to grow as a goal scorer and all-around offensive threat. The hope for him this season is that last season’s injury didn’t stunt his growth as a player, and he’ll be able to take another step forward as a scorer. Whether he plays with Dubois or Phillip Danault on the second or third line, he’ll have an outstanding centerman to work with.
There are few two-way centermen in the NHL who are on the kind of level Phillip Danault does and one of them (Patrice Bergeron) just retired. Danault’s defensive work is at an elite level as a faceoff man (54.4 percent; 17th in the NHL among players with 1,000 or more faceoffs), as a player who can control possession (nearly 53 percent shots attempted at 5-on-5) and expected goals (54.1 percent). On top of that, Danault is also a very good offensive producer. He set a career high with 54 points last season with 18 goals. He’s posted 50-or-more points in back-to-back seasons with Los Angeles further leaning into a side of him that was apparent but not best used with Montreal. Danault is a perennial Selke Trophy contender but with Bergeron retired, he’ll be in consideration as a front-runner. He’s vital to the Kings’ success and with Dubois in the fold, he’ll be counted on even more heavily for defensive matchups. The question is how much, if at all, will it affect his offensive output. Ideally, L.A. will deploy their top three lines as groups that can score at will, but Danault’s line will be able to do that as well as shut down opponents.
Part of what makes the Kings such a dangerous team is their offensive depth and Viktor Arvidsson is a major contributor to that. Last season, Arvidsson was fourth on the team in scoring with 59 points and third in goals with 26 in 77 games. When the Kings signed Arvidsson as a free agent in 2022, the hope was he’d evolve further into the type of offensive contributor he showed to be with the Nashville Predators. In two seasons, he’s scored 46 goals and 108 points and that checks out compared to what he did in previous seasons. What’s come back to normal in a good way for Arvidsson is his shooting percentage. His final year with the Predators he had his worst shooting season at 6.6 percent and it rebounded in his first season with the Kings at 8.8 and last season he shot 11.4. That’s much more in line with what he did earlier in his career. Although shot percentage can be volatile, seeing Arvidsson’s stats return to being closer to what he’s had throughout his career is a great sign for the Kings. Arvidsson spent virtually all of his 5-on-5 time with Phillip Danault last season and there’s not much reason to think that will change now, especially given how well they performed together. A repeat performance would make the Kings an even more dangerous team in the West.
The growth of Trevor Moore’s career since he joined the Kings in a trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs has been nothing short of incredible. Last season, Moore posted 29 points with 10 goals in 59 games. A pair of upper-body injuries kept him out of 23 games in the second half of the season, but he was able to return for the playoffs. Moore’s raw numbers were down because of injuries. The year before he had a career high 48 points and while Moore’s scoring rate dipped a little bit (0.59 points per game to 0.49) it was still the second-best rate of his career. But points are only part of the reason why Moore is valuable to Los Angeles. Among players with 500 or more minutes played at 5-on-5, he had the second highest puck possession and expected goal percentage numbers and was a strong player in all facets including both sides of the puck on special teams. He’s a dynamite all-around player and teamed up with Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson to be part of one of the most consistent lines the Kings rolled out during the season. With better health, that trio should once again be reunited and help make opponents miserable throughout the season.
After injuries held Drew Doughty to 39 games two years ago, he was back to looking more like his old self last season with 52 points in 81 games. Doughty’s ability to control the Kings’ play in all facets of the game through his puck-carrying and passing showed why he was so desperately missed. He led Kings skaters in time on ice and average time on-ice per game. He averaged the most minutes played on the power play and on the penalty kill. Doughty was a force on the power play with four goals and 23 assists. He had more assists on the power play than he did at even strength (20) which highlighted his importance to the Kings power play which ranked fourth in the NHL (25.3 percent). By comparison, Los Angeles’ power play was 27th the year before with Doughty out of the lineup for most of the season. As Doughty goes, the Kings offense goes and while the defensive metrics aren’t top tier around the league, he’s not as bad as many want you to believe. Besides, if the points pile up his value will always be high. The Kings have young puck carriers and point producers on the way up with Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence, but this is Doughty’s team and his show to run.
The value Mikey Anderson brings to the Los Angeles Kings goes well beyond the measure of goals and assists. He had five goals and 15 assists, but Anderson does the dirty work as Drew Doughty’s partner laying the body and driving opponents mad with his physical play along the boards and in front of the net. Anderson was also a stalwart on the Kings’ penalty kill with Doughty as their top defensive pair. Because Anderson was leaned on as the heavy, his possession numbers weren’t as strong as Doughty’s despite being seemingly attached at the hip. Although maintaining possession and generating shots is a vital part of being a defenseman in the modern NHL, Anderson’s throwback style comes with a different brand of value. He led the Kings in hits delivered with 162 and was third on the team in blocked shots (129). If there was a guy who would’ve been classically described as someone who “gets their uniform dirty” or “carries a lunchpail to work” it would be Anderson. More importantly, his dedication to doing all of that allows Doughty more freedom to help create and generate offense and that, for L.A., carries a lot of value alone. Look for him to continue playing that role to the hilt.
When the Kings acquired Vladislav Gavrikov from Columbus at the trade deadline, they knew they were adding a high-value defender capable of doing a lot of dirty work but also being a positive contributor on the offensive end as well. He put up 19 points between the Blue Jackets and Kings last season, but in L.A. he had nine points in 20 games and followed that up with one assist in six games against the Oilers in the postseason. Gavrikov also proved to be a strong defender when it came to puck possession with 54.1 shot attempt percentage with the Kings and a 58.9 expected goals-for percentage. Keeping the puck away from the opponent while also helping teammates generate quality chances are key reasons why the Kings re-signed Gavrikov for two years at $11.75 million. As far as auditions go, Gavrikov’s went sparkling for the Kings. He paired up with fellow defensive-minded blue liner Matt Roy for the majority of his time in L.A. but also played some with Drew Doughty, but it was with Roy he had his greatest success. It would be expected that they would pair up once again this season, but with Brandt Clarke likely being involved full-time next season, the pairs could shuffle a bit.
Playing defense as a defenseman in the NHL these days is a quick way to not land in the limelight but an even faster way to earn the respect of teammates. By that measure, few would be more respected in the Kings locker room than Matt Roy. He was tops among defensemen in puck possession and expected goals but had 26 points over 82 games last season. He’s not tasked with being a top puck-carrier nor is he needed to quarterback the power play, but he was one of their top defenders on the penalty kill (third most minutes) and top defenders overall (third most 5-on-5 minutes played). While his defense is first and foremost for what makes him vital to the Kings, he also had a career year in scoring and his nine goals were five more than his previous career-high set in 2019-2020 and one of those was a shorthanded tally. The offensive contributions make for a great bonus out of a player who they depend on to shutdown opposing scorers and should he team up with Vladislav Gavrikov again this season, they’ll make a very formidable pair for opponents to try and deal with nightly.
It’s hard to believe it, but for the first time in over 15 years, Kings fans will start their season without Jonathan Quick as a part of their goaltending tandem. The last time the Southern California team kicked off a season without him on the roster was 2006 – to put that into perspective, the league’s best goaltender that year was Miikka Kiprusoff, Martin Brodeur was only halfway through his career with the Devils, and Henrik Lundqvist was just an exciting new young prospect for the New York Rangers fresh off his first year of North American hockey ever.
It’s almost anti-climactic for the Kings to end the Quick era with such a fizzle; after all, Cam Talbot is hardly a fresh young prospect set to take the reins from the team’s long-standing monarch and carry them through their next era. But in the scramble of the goaltending carousel over the last few years, the Kings largely sat things out – and now they’ll enter the 2023-24 season hoping that Talbot can bounce back from a mediocre season with the Ottawa Senators as they push to become perennial playoff contenders once again. Talbot, at first glance, had a fairly dismal campaign last season for Ottawa statistically. He posted an .898 unadjusted save percentage through 36 games played and fell short of his expected save percentage using advanced metrics, and he battled through a whopping three injuries over the course of the year. But there is room for optimism; he looked good to start the season once he returned from a fractured rib sustained in a pre-season practice and putting aside the way his numbers fizzled out around his back-to-back injuries at the end of the year, he was a slightly above-average league starter on a team that isn’t quite ready to
make the jump to being a playoff contender. He also plays a style that lends itself well to a team that can offer good structure, if inconsistency and a bit of inexperience; he’s content to play a patient game and feed off of what the defense is doing in front of him, and he lacks some of the unpredictability that could make it hard for younger Kings players to establish a good rhythm during the season. He’s not the long-term answer for L.A., but he’s not the riskiest move they could have made as they try to figure out what their post-Quick future looks like.
Projected starts: 45-50
Last season, we said that it was finally Cal Petersen’s net to lose – and he did just that, getting usurped midway through the season by free agent signee Pheonix Copley of North Pole, Alaska. Copley has made a career of seemingly waiting in the wings (or in his case, specifically in the AHL) until the up-and-comers in the NHL faltered. He snuck in and took the backup gig for the Washington Capitals in 2018-19, then bode his time in the AHL for a few years before getting a chance to do it again in Los Angeles last year. Now, he’ll serve as one-half of a somewhat bizarre tandem for the Kings as they scramble to figure out their solution in net long-term – likely backing up Cam Talbot for the time being, but certainly not a clear-cut number two option by any stretch.
Copley does his best when he’s able to get a rhythm going in net, thriving on the ability to keep his feet moving and plenty of back-and-forth action up and down the ice. Where he struggles, though, is in sustained pressure on his own end or in sporadic hiccups by his defence; he’s shown difficulty maintaining his edges and holding his positioning within the crease over the course of his career, and he lacks some of the patience that his new tandem partner Talbot has made a cornerstone of his own game. Copley, in a way, plays a similar style to former Kings prospect Cal Petersen; he’s willing to chase down the play and take up a little extra space, but despite decent tracking ability he can struggle with keeping himself in the play when things start to go a little awry. He’s likely not the answer the Kings are looking for – but for now, he’s a decent stopgap until they figure out their next move.
Projected starts: 30-35

If the Kings' plan all along was to give Clarke just a taste of the NHL before letting him go back to the OHL so that he would set the entire league on fire, then boy, mission accomplished. The growth in his game from 2021-22 to last season was meteoric, which really goes to show how much of a difference it can make to be around some of the best players in the world for a few weeks. His hockey sense in the offensive zone is almost spooky, as he loves to rove around and change position, and no matter where he goes or what he does the puck always seems to find him like a magnet. Opposing teams just have no answer for defending him when he activates like that. He will be given every opportunity to stay with Los Angeles for the entirety of this season.
Spence might have been ready to be a full-time NHLer last season considering the impressive audition that he gave in 2021-22, which even included some playoff games, but the Kings decided to not rush things and to let him marinate a little longer, and he's still young enough that it won't have hindered his ultimate upside in any way. There are few defensemen in his age range who think the sport as well as Spence does, and that goes a long way towards overcoming some of the limitations that he has between his size and mobility. He works very well on the power play, not necessarily as the one driving things through his stick, but more so by setting his teammates up to be more effective. Spence has a long NHL career ahead of him, though it's still a little murky to project how high up in a defence corps he will be able to play.
Turcotte simply cannot catch a break when it comes to staying healthy. Ever since his draft year his career has been beleaguered by injuries and illnesses, from hip issues to mononucleosis to COVID to two concussions. Despite being the fifth overall pick in 2019, he has only played in 12 NHL games thus far and is still searching for his first NHL point. Even more concerning, the missed games have made it hard for him to fully find his game even down at the AHL level. When healthy and at his best he is a two-way possession specialist, always in the right position, and always making the right decisions with the puck. Where do things go for him from here? The Kings have been patient, but with his smaller stature, average footspeed, and lengthy injury history it's difficult to not worry about what the physicality of the NHL could do to him.
Fagemo's name was one of the most surprising to not hear get called at the 2018 draft, his first year of eligibility. His natural knack for scoring goals was clearly evident even back then, but the rest of his game was still coming along. It didn't take him long to make every NHL team look foolish though, as he stormed out of the gate the very next season and hasn't stopped lighting the lamp at any level since. His shot is nasty, with a quick, hard release that he can both disguise and unload from difficult angles. His play without the puck is still very rough to watch at times, as he is easy to box out and he doesn't generate many scoring chances for himself or his teammates, but prospects who can find the back of the net with the frequency Fagemo can don't grow on trees.
The Kitchener Rangers badly underperformed as a team this season, but they did have one bright and shining constant: their captain, superstar Pinelli. He really came into his own last season as one of the best players in the entire league, crossing the 40-goal plateau and becoming a real three-zone, 200-foot force in a way that he hadn’t been before. He saved his very best hockey for the playoffs, helping the Rangers upset the heavily favoured Windsor Spitfires in the opening round. He is an impressively well-rounded and complete player, though his mental makeup stands out as his strongest quality. He's very focused and driven and maintains an even keel through the tougher times of the season. If Pinelli can continue improving his skating, which he will probably work tirelessly to accomplish, then he should be able to reach an even higher level.
One of the most enticing physical specimens of the 2023 draft, Dvorak spent last season solidifying himself as one of the top defensive options in his league at any age, leading to his 2nd round selection by the Kings. Looking surprisingly coordinated despite his considerable height, Dvorak spent this past season (as a 17-year-old) entirely with powerhouse Liberec in Czechia’s top men’s league. Featuring a wide wingspan, which he uses to good effect as a poke-checker, Dvorak has been a devastating physical force against his peers internationally, albeit a cage-wearing target playing pro back home. Always ready to apply himself physically, he has been nondescript in his work with the puck but is quite capable of making decent breakout passes and getting pucks to the net from the blueline. Czechia made heavy use of him at both the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and U18 Worlds last season, where he logged over 19 minutes of ice time per game in every outing. Looking like a future beast on the PK, Dvorak eats up time and space with his long reach and affinity for board work. He’s docked to spend the upcoming season gaining further experience and responsibility with Liberec in the Czech Extraliga.
Laferriere just keeps getting a little better and a little better year over year, and he's done it so many years in a row now that it would be foolish to expect anything else. His game is unassuming in a way, as he doesn't have a single tool that really jumps out at you, but he's seemingly always around the puck, and when you check the box scores he often has more points than you would have expected. He certainly helps advance Harvard's reputation for being a place that recruits and fosters smart prospects. Laferriere plays in a way that is simple yet effective, and safely projects as a 40-50 point-scorer in the show at his peak, even if he never plays higher than the second or third line and slots most comfortably in a supplementary role.
There is no feeling as uniquely satisfying for a scout than vouching for a prospect in the seventh round who turns out to be a solid professional player and eventually becomes a regular NHLer. Jämsen has accomplished the former and is on a good trajectory for the latter, so the Kings scouts who facilitated that selection must be at least a little excited right now. He is a toolsy winger who has played for his hometown hockey organization, the Lahti Pelicans, from their youth programs up through every single level to Finland's highest league, the Liiga. And it was in the Liiga last season where he showed that his credibility as an offensive threat wasn't just confined to junior. Due to a lack of international exposure, Jämsen is currently one of the best-kept secrets in the prospect world.
Portillo saw the writing on the wall in Buffalo, with the Sabres having fellow highly-touted young netminders in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi in their system, and made it clear that he didn't wish to sign his first NHL contract with them. The team eventually agreed and his rights were traded to the Kings, where his path to success is more clear. He's an enormous, fairly technically sound goalie who was a late bloomer and has since flashed tantalizing potential. He still needs to refine the details in his play. He put up some dazzling numbers with Michigan, but on the flip side, had the luxury of playing behind a team that usually had the puck. The AHL might be an eye-opening challenge for him, and how he responds could be indicative of just how good he really is — and how good he could still become.
Injuries, specifically a shoulder injury, have really derailed Thomas’ development, limiting him to only 13 games last season. The former Canadian WJC hero still has terrific offensive upside, but he just needs to find a way to stay healthy.
2022-23 was a step back for Madden as he saw his offensive production (on a point per game basis) decrease from the year prior. Time is running out for the once promising prospect as he is no longer exempt from waivers. The talent level is still high but he continues to have trouble with consistency and is prone to playing primarily on the perimeter.
Chromiak’s first pro year had its ups and downs, but he showed enough promise to remain a highly thought of prospect in the system. The focus moving forward needs to be on getting both quicker and stronger.
The massive center was a huge (no pun intended) disappointment in his first full pro season in North America, scoring all of two goals for AHL Ontario. It’s starting to look like his offensive upside may be pretty limited, but the physical tools nevertheless give him a chance to be a solid bottom six center.
A slippery offensive player, Hughes’ skill shines through as he looks to attack the offensive zone. Strength and speed deficits continue to prevent him from being a more consistent player and he’ll look to take a big step forward in his junior season with Northeastern this year.
An undersized, but competitive winger, Simontaival continues to improve every year in Finland. Positive progression is a good thing and he is starting to look like a future middle six candidate for Los Angeles in the near future.
The big surprise of the Kings’ system last year, Connors adjusted to the NCAA game seamlessly with UMass and even earned a place on the American WJC team. A competitive, two-way center, he is altering the perception of his upside.
A mobile, offensively oriented defender, Salin is coming off a strong rookie season in Liiga with HIFK. A potential powerplay quarterback, the Kings are looking for him to tighten up his decision making and play in his own end.
The smaller defender’s development appears to be headed in the wrong direction. Once thought to be a top defender in the system, his play in the AHL thus far has been uninspiring. This is likely a big year for his development, especially given LA’s depth.
It was pretty shocking for us to see Mania fall as far as he did on draft day, but the Kings may have gotten a good one here. Mania is an impressive mover on the back-end and he is still gaining confidence in how to use it to his advantage offensively. Defensively, he is a work in progress, but the upside is high.
Not much debate to be had here. If you put Bedard in any other draft class from the past ten years, the only time he does not go first overall is the Connor McDavid Draft. Bedard is simply a generational talent that will kick down the front door of the NHL and take the league by storm. To expect him to be a point per game player as a rookie is not out of the question, he could even push for a 90-point year. The sky is the limit.
It was looking like Cooley was returning to the NCAA for his sophomore season, but after scoring 60 points as a freshman (second overall in scoring) and little left to gain from a second season, the Coyotes signed him to his ELC. Now that he is show bound, he locks up second forward rank position as the future of the Coyotes. Cooley is a dynamic offensive and highly skilled player that should flirt with 60 points as a rookie and has the upside to be a 90-point player when he hits his prime.
Fantilli lead the NCAA in scoring as a freshman which puts him in a class with Jack Eichel and Paul Kariya. He will have the opportunity to center dynamic offensive wingers like Patrik Laine or Johnny Gaudreau or both in Columbus. Fantilli brings the whole package, size, skating, skill, smarts and will deliver in fantasy leagues with points and peripheral stats as well. He could easily have landed second overall on this list.
In five years when we revisit this I would not be surprised if Michkov is the second overall player ranked, but the reasons why he is only fourth have more to do with term. Signed in the KHL for three more seasons we will have to wait on Michkov, but when he comes over as a matured 21-year-old on a three-year ELC he will be the best bang for his buck in dynasty capped leagues.

Rossi suffered a major setback in his development with a life-threatening bout with COVID. But he now has had two seasons of development in the AHL and after 116 games he has posted 104 points. His NHL production has not materialized through 21 games to date but count on that changing in a big way this year. Rossi is expected to take over the number one spot in Minnesota and if he develops some Chemistry between Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, look out!
The Ducks surprised a lot of people when they selected Carlsson over Fantilli at the second overall selection at the 2023 Draft. The fact of the matter is that Carlsson is a highly skilled and projectable player. The Ducks can be patient with his development, and he could play another year in the SHL before coming to California. With Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson as a one-two punch down the middle, the Ducks have elite center depth for a long time.
After two seasons of development in the AHL, Reichel is ready for prime time, and his timing couldn’t be better. While expectations are Taylor Hall will get the first crack at shot gun with Bedard, Reichel could easily win one of the wing roles on the top line and flirt with a 50–60-point season.
Leaf Nation had some lofty expectations for Knies, and he did not disappoint. He quickly became a key member of the Leafs top six and offense in a playoff series with Tampa. With a cap friendly ELC contract, he is an ideal fit on a top six line in Toronto with their prolific offense. Knies brings some size and physicality in addition to his soft hands and dangerous shot. Knies will be a stud in multi-cat leagues.
While it was a struggle in his D+1 year with highs and lows ranging from a regular healthy scratch, to captaining Canada to WJC Gold, and returning to the OHL. When the dust settled, he gained valuable development in the NHL, AHL, OHL and internationally and now Seattle has the option to play Wright full time in the AHL. In time Wright and Beniers will be a formidable one-two punch down the middle for Seattle, but Wright likely needs one more year before he wins a top six role with the Kraken.
Playing in only 33 NHL games last year barely allows Guenther to remain eligible for this list. His 15 points last year was good, but not enough to stay in the show. He was loaned to Canada for the WJC and posted 10 points before returning to the WHL to help Seattle to a WHL Championship. With Cooley signing it gives an additional boost to Guenther’s value.

Stankoven has dominated in the WHL and the international stage alike. He kept pace with Connor Bedard at the WJC showing he can play with elite players and pace. Stankoven will be turning pro this year and could likely skip the AHL on a lot of NHL teams, but Dallas has some depth and can be patient with this stud.
It’s has been a long time coming for the 2019 first round pick of the Flames, but after scoring 99 points in 101 career AHL games, the time is now for Pelletier to get a real look at the NHL. The coaching change in Calgary should be another green light for Pelletier to not only make the team but crack the Flames top six.
The Boston College commit will likely be a one-and-done player before he signs his ELC. Drawing comparisons to the Tkachuk brothers as he plays a rambunctious game but has high end skill and hockey sense. The Capitals can be patient with their top prospect and slow cook him, but he is more instant noodle than slow cooker and can be an impact player for them next year.
Eklund nearly cracked the Sharks roster in his D+1 season with a strong nine game showing before he was loaned back to the SHL. Last year he made the move to North America and played mainly in the AHL posting 41 points through 54 games. He could be ready to not only win a roster spot with the Sharks to start the season but will compete for a top six role.
Nazar missed all but 13 games in his freshman year at Michigan due to injury. He had a strong showing at the World Junior Summer Showcase and is a lock for Team USA. He will return to Michigan and be a star player for the Wolverine and could even finish the year in Chicago if he signs his ELC. His fantasy stock is about to get a massive boost.
It is too early to do a redraft of the 2022 draft, but if we do, Jimmy Snuggerud would likely be inside the top ten, well above where the Blues selected him 23rd overall. A massive freshman season with the University of Minnesota where he scored 50 points in 40 games on arguably the top line in the NCAA with Logan Cooley and Matthew Knies. Cooley and Knies are now gone, can Snuggerud produce the same or better without those two?

Speaking of redrafting too soon, Benson fell to Buffalo at pick 13 because he is undersized. I think when we redraft the 2023 class, he will be inside the top ten, closer to top five. He has hands, vision and deception in his game that scream NHL ready. He plays a two-way game and is highly competitive. He is a few years away, but the upside is top six.
The big winger had an impressive freshman year at Boston College scoring 37 points in 32 games and ten more points at the WJ and then nine points at the World Championship. He will return to B.C. where the Eagles will add the NTDP trio of Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, and Gabe Perreault to the fold. Big things are coming with Gauthier.
After posting back-to-back 36-point seasons in the NCAA at Harvard Coronato signed and made his NHL debut last year. He may be short at 5-10, but he is not a small player. He is strong and can play physically but his game is all about scoring goals.
The seventh overall pick from the 2020 draft is now starting to trend in the wrong direction. Holtz is a sniper and has had two full seasons of development in North America. It looked like last year was when he would breakout, but he only managed four points in 19 games with the Devils. Still only 21 years old he has time but really needs to address the skating and pace to reach an NHL top six role.
Bourque had a good AHL rookie season with 20 goals and 47 points. He has some work to do however before he can compete to crack the Stars roster with their depth.
Othmann finished his junior career in the OHL on a playoff run with the Petes that ended with a Championship and a Memorial Cup run. He has size and speed and skill, and scores clutch goals. A year in the AHL is in the cards for Othmann but he has top six upside in a year or two.
The slick and skilled center had 127 points in 60 games with the NTDP in his draft year. That was not a typo. Headed to Boston College with the entire NTDP record breaking line with Perreault and Leonard, the trio could have a ridiculous freshman year. Smith has some work to do on his defensive game but should develop into the Sharks number one center with Eklund on his wing.
Kulich scored 24 goals and 46 points as a rookie in the AHL and had nine points for Czechia at the WJC. His game got better as the season went on and in the AHL playoffs he scored 11 points in 12 games. He will have to play another year in the AHL and wait for some contracts to expire on the Sabres roster, but he is very close.
His AHL rookie season was a smashing success as he scored 20 goals and 48 points in 66 games. But what was far more impressive was his late season NHL recall where he played eight games with the Flyers and scored seven points. He is NHL ready now.

Perhaps one of the players with the biggest rise in stock this year was Evangelista. Sure, he scored 111 points in his final 62 career OHL games, but 41 points in 49 AHL games as a rookie was very impressive. Even more spectacular was he earned an NHL recall and scored there too, 15 points in 24 games. He has arrived.
His breakout performance at the WJC was cut short due to injury, but he picked up where he left off as a rookie in the AHL scoring 29 points in 39 games in Belleville. His play earned him an NHL recall and he did not look out of place posting nine points in 20 NHL games. He is ready.
Savoie is a prolific scorer as he has back-to-back 90-point seasons in the WHL with Winnipeg and went on a tear in the playoffs last year scoring 11 goals and 29 points in 19 games. He is undersized but he can play.
Injuries have plagued Robertson, who otherwise may have been playing out his ELC inside the Leafs top six. At 21-years-old he has missed a lot of development playing 82 games over the past three seasons. He needs to have a full, healthy year.
The Michigan alumni had a good AHL rookie season scoring 37 points in 58 games for the Silver Knights. He will be back in the AHL and should see marked improvement in his production. He is coming.
Defense
The youngest of the Huges brothers but the biggest at 6’ 2”, 183 pounds may have the highest upside. He produced at the NCAA, World Junior, and World Championship. He has two points in his two-game debut to end the year in the NHL and will play his rookie season in the NHL in the coming season. The only thing in his way from being the top offensive player right away is Dougie Hamilton.
Clark started the year in the NHL and after nine games with the Kings and five in the AHL he was loaned to Canada where he dominated the World Junior. Then he was returned to the OHL, and it was ridiculous as he scored 23 points in 12 playoff games. He is ready for the NHL.
His 48-point freshman season was comparable to Cale Makar’s Hobey Baker winning sophomore year. Hutson also played key roles for the USA at the WJC and World Championships. He will return to Boston University to play with his brother and should sign following his sophomore year. Hutson has elite upside.
Jiricek had a tremendous D+1 season as an 18-year-old AHL rookie playing key minutes for the Monsters and scoring 38 points. His play at the WJC helped lead Czechia to a Silver Medal and he looks ready for the NHL now. His point upside may not be as elite, but he is 6’ 3”, mobile and great defensively. He is a franchise defenseman.

Nemec is every bit as good as Jiricek, he had a superb D+1 year as an AHL rookie scoring 34 points and was a point per game player at the WJC. His path to a number one NHL defender is harder in New Jersey with Hughes and Hamilton blocking him.
Zellweger has dominated the WHL to the tune of 183 career points in 180 games and was named the CHL Defenseman of the Year. He has dominated the World Junior with two Gold Medals with 17 points in 14 games. He will take his game to the AHL, and chances are he will dominate there as a rookie. He is still a year or two away from being an impact defenseman in the NHL and the Ducks number one on the blueline.
After a great AHL rookie campaign Edvinsson moved up to the NHL for a nine-game audition. He was poised to make the Wings roster out of camp to start the season, but an injury will delay that arrival. He may need a short tour in the AHL to get up to speed, but he will compete with Seider for top minutes in Detroit by years end.
By all accounts the 24-year-old should have graduated from this list by now, but three injury plagued seasons and he has been limited to 19 NHL games. His 42 points in 39 career AHL games demands he gets an opportunity to play meaningful minutes in the NHL, he just needs to stay healthy.
The Russian offensive defender saw his production dip slightly after a mid-season trade to the Ottawa 67’s, but his offensive play should translate to the AHL where he will play his rookie season with the Gulls. He has Drysdale and Zellweger ahead of him for now, but his upside is tremendous.
Mateychuk has similar offensive upside to Mintyukov, but is a little smaller, and has one more year of junior hockey before he turns pro. The 19-year-old should shootout the lights in the WHL and be a key player for Canada at the World Junior.
His stock got a big boost when the Hawks won the Draft lottery and added Connor Bedard. Korchinski is penciled in to be the Hawks powerplay quarterback in three years or so and it is lining up to be elite. The 6’ 3” defender can skate and play a physical game as well.
Perhaps no defense prospect saw their stock rise more last year than Nikishin. His 55-point breakout in 65 games in the KHL commanded the attention of fantasy owners. He has two more years remaining on his contract so we will have to wait a while for the 21-year-old, 6’ 4” Russian stud to come to North America.
The Kings top defensive prospect is Brandt Clarke, but the gap between him and Spence is getting smaller. Spence was a force in the AHL as a rookie posting 42 points in 46 games and played in 24 NHL games. Last year he spent more time developing in the AHL and is looking ready to secure an NHL job out of training camp.

The OHL shutdown gave Harley early access to the AHL, and the 21-year-old now has three seasons of professional hockey development under his belt, including 40 NHL career games played. He has NHL ready size, mobility, and offensive acumen. He should be a full-time player in Dallas this year and his role with the team will continue to grow.
The 20th overall pick from the 2019 draft nearly made the NHL in his D+1 year playing the first eight regular season games with the Jets. Ultimately, he was loaned back to his Liiga club team and since then has split time between the Liiga, AHL, NHL and some international tournaments. His play in the AHL has slowly been improving, but Heinola still has one more year of waiver exemption that likely dictates more AHL time.
Cormier was a prolific offensive defenseman in junior and his rookie year in the AHL saw his offensive skill translate to the professional level as he scored 10 goals and 35 points in 62 games for the Silver Knights. Cormier has a rocket of a shot, is a crafty and creative offensive driver but is looking at another year or two in the AHL before he is ready to push for a top pairing role in Vegas.
The Ducks 2019 fourth round pick was looking for more opportunity and is assumed was not going to sign in Anaheim as they are loaded with star prospects on defense. He was traded to the Sharks who signed him within a month. The departure of Erik Karlsson has created a massive void on the Sharks roster and Thrun will try to win the job out of training camp as the team’s powerplay quarterback.
The 5’ 9” defender has been flushing out his resume nicely since his draft leading the J20 in defenseman points and goals, a HockeyAllsvenskan Championship, being named best junior, most goals by a defenseman in the WJC and a Bronze Medal. Last year he had a breakout season in the SHL with 26 points and finished the year in the AHL with a strong showing of six points in 10 games with the Phantoms. He will play a full season in the AHL but is a player on the rise.
The Krakens 2021 second round pick had a strong junior career with the Regina Pats, but his stock improved significantly in his rookie AHL season as his role continued to grow all season long. His 44 points in 71 regular season games was great, and it got even better in the playoffs as he produced 26 points in 26 games to help lead Coachella to the finals in their inaugural season. Evans is a prospect on the rise and on the fast track to the NHL.
ASP is a play-driving offensive defenseman with a high hockey sense that allows him to see plays two steps ahead. He is a strong skater, perhaps not a burner, but his edge work makes him very elusive. He has the ability to be a power play QB but with Seider and Edvinsson ahead of him on the depth chart, power play minutes may be hard to come by.
Goalies.
The rise of Devon Levi has been spectacular. The seventh-round selection by the Florida Panthers has rocketed up the rankings by cracking the Canadian WJC roster, then winning the starting role. He dominated the NCAA winning the Mike Richter Award as Best Goalie in the NCAA twice. He made his NHL debut after his junior season and posted a 5-2-0 record with a 2.94 GAA and .905 SV%. Eric Comrie and Ukka-Pekka-Luukkonen are both under contract which should force Levi to the AHL as he is waiver exempt, but Levi could outplay them both and win the starting role out of camp. Buffalo is a team on the rise and Levi is on the cusp of becoming an elite goalie.
His first season in the AHL showed plenty of promise as he made the adjustment to North America. After a strong rookie season in Iowa with a 18-15-5 record, he closed the year at the World Championship with Sweden winning all three games with a 0.67 GAA against some of the lesser teams. With one more year remaining on M-A Fleury’s contract, Wallstedt likely has another year of AHL time before he is a full-time NHL goalie.

You could easily make the argument that Wolf is the number one on this list. The two-time AHL Goalie of the Year winner has been outstanding as a pro goalie. He lacks some international experience and has both Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar signed for two years ahead of him in Calgary, but his performance speaks for itself. The Flames can be patient with the 22-year-old future franchise goalie as he could be one of the teams’ all-time greats.
Askarov has been an elite prospect for years now, but my concern with him has been the low volume of games he was playing in Russia. Last year he came to North America and played 48 games for Milwaukee in the AHL and was outstanding as the undisputed starting goalie. His adjustment to North America and a starting goalie workload erased any potential doubt he can and will be an NHL starting goalie. Look for Askarov to get a few more cups of coffee in the NHL this year and be a full time NHL player in 2024-25.
Hofer has rather quietly assembled a remarkable resume which includes a WHL Championship, Gold Medals at the World Championship and World Junior where he was the Best Goaltender. In his two seasons of AHL development his record is 49-36-13 with a 2.78 GAA and .912 SV%. Hofer is penciled in to start the year in the NHL as the backup to an aging and declining Jordan Binnington. It is just a matter of time before Hofer usurps him as the starting goalie.
Commesso showed good development in his three years as the Boston Terriers starting goalie in the NCAA and posted a strong 24-8-0 record in his final year. His path towards an NHL starting role looks promising as he should be the starting goalie as a rookie in the AHL with Rockford and the Hawks goalie depth is very weak outside Commesso and Arvid Soderblom.
The wait time on the Wings 2021 first round pick is a little longer. After a dominant career in the WHL, he spent the majority of his rookie season as a pro in the ECHL with Toledo where he got starting minutes. The 6’ 6” netminder will graduate to the AHL and will be mentored by veteran Alex Lyon.
The 6’ 4” Finnish goalie had strong numbers from the Liiga but stumbled in his rookie season in the AHL. He made adjustments in his sophomore season and saw marked improvements across the board. The 23-year-old will play his third season in the AHL and be the first option for an NHL recall if injuries require relief.
This will be a key year for Dostal to establish himself as an NHL goalie. The Ducks likely go with a three-headed-monster in goal with John Gibson, Alex Stalock, and Dostal to allow Calle Clang to get the starting role in the AHL. Injuries will certainly force Gibson to miss some time and Dostal could seize the starting job in Anaheim sooner than later.
Tarasov has struggled with injuries since coming to North America but put 28 games on the board last year between the AHL and NHL. Both teams were bottom dwellers in the standings, so his numbers were not overly impressive. Tarasov will share the NHL crease this year with Elvis Merzlikins as his backup but could see a healthy number of starts if he plays well.
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GM Rob Blake, in the chair since 2017, has not been very active on the trade front, preferring to focus on the free agent market, acquiring Kevin Fiala, Philip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, as key pieces in recent years. He did move his first and third round pick (plus Jonathan Quick – who was subsequently moved to Vegas) for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov at the deadline. That may signal a more aggressive push in coming seasons to move picks and prospects than he has been willing to do so far. Blake has his core and will work around it in pursuit of a championship.

If the Kings' plan all along was to give Clarke just a taste of the NHL before letting him go back to the OHL so that he would set the entire league on fire, then boy, mission accomplished. The growth in his game from last year to this year was meteoric, which really goes to show how much of a difference it can make to be around some of the best players in the world for a few weeks. His hockey sense in the offensive zone is almost spooky, as he loves to rove around and change position, and no matter where he goes or what he does the puck always seems to find him like a magnet. Opposing teams just have no answer for defending him when he activates like that. He will be given every opportunity to stay with Los Angeles for the entirety of next season.
Spence might have been ready to be a full-time NHLer this season considering the impressive audition that he gave last year, which even included some playoff games, but the Kings decided to not rush things and to let him marinate a little longer, and he's still young enough that it won't have hindered his ultimate upside in any way. There are few defensemen in his age range who think the sport as well as he does, and that goes a long way towards overcoming some limitations that he has with size and mobility. Works very well on the powerplay, not necessarily as the one driving things through his stick, but moreso by managing it in a way that sets his teammates up to be more effective. Spence has a long NHL career ahead of him, though it's still a little murky to project how up in a defense corps he will be able to play.
Turcotte simply cannot catch a break when it comes to staying healthy. Ever since his draft year his career has been beleaguered by injuries and illnesses, from hip issues to mononucleosis to COVID to two concussions. Despite being the 5th overall pick in 2019 he has only played in 12 NHL games thus far and is still searching for his first NHL point. Even more concerning, the missed games have made it hard for him to fully find his game even down at the AHL level. When healthy and at his best he is a two-way possession specialist, always in the right position, and always making the right decisions with the puck. Where do things go for him from here? The Kings have been patient, but with his smaller stature, average footspeed and lengthy injury history it's difficult to not worry about what the physicality of the NHL could do to him.
Fagemo's name was one of the most surprising to not hear get called at the 2018 draft, his first year of eligibility. His natural knack for scoring goals was clearly evident even back then, but the rest of his game was still coming along. It didn't take him long to make every NHL team look foolish, though, as he stormed out of the gate the very next season and hasn't stopped lighting the lamp at any point since. His shot is nasty, with a quick, hard release that he can both disguise and unload from difficult angles. Sure, his play without the puck is very rough to watch at times, he is easy to box out and he doesn't generate many scoring chances for himself or his teammates, but prospects who can find the back of the net with the frequency he can don't grow on trees.
Grans still has a lot of work left to do before he'll be ready to hack it at the NHL level, and his play thus far in the AHL hasn't lived up to expectations, but the long-term upside that he still possesses is undeniable. He checks off a lot of boxes that you want to see in a defenseman: athleticism, size, reach, mobility, puck movement. Heck, he even shoots right instead of left, which is always a perk. Unfortunately, he still struggles to blend all these tools together. There are fair questions about his hockey sense and processing speed, and for a blueliner with his profile he you'd like to see more sandpaper and a stronger willingness to work hard to win positioning and pucks. Grans could be the type of prospect who blows up in his mid 20s, or he might never become much more than he is right now.
The Kitchener Rangers badly underperformed as a team this season, but they did have one bright and shining constant: their superstar and captain Pinelli. He really came into his own this season as one of the best players in the entire league, crossing the 40-goal plateau and becoming a real three-zone, 200-foot force in a way that he wasn't before. He saved his very best hockey for the playoffs, though, helping his team upset the heavily favored Windsor Spitfires in the opening round. He is an impressively well-rounded and complete player, though his mental makeup stands out as his strongest quality. He's very focused and driven and maintains an even keel through the times where things get tougher. If Pinelli can keep improving his skating, which he will probably work tirelessly to accomplish, then he should be able to reach an even higher level than he's at right now.
Laferriere just keeps getting a little better and a little better year over year, and he's done it so many years in a row now that it would be foolish to expect anything else from happening. His game is unassuming in a way, as he doesn't have a single tool that really jumps out at you, but he's seemingly always around the puck, and when you check the boxscores after a game he often has more points than you would have expected. He certainly helps advance Harvard's reputation for being a place that recruits and fosters smart prospects. Laferriere plays in a way that is simple yet effective, and safely projects as someone who could be a 40-50 point-scorer in the show at his peak, even if he never plays higher than the second or third line and slots most comfortably in a supplementary role.
Thomas's last few years have gone oddly, and unfortunately, similar to Turcotte's. Once seen as a top prospect who could generate offense in a top six center role and lead a dangerous powerplay, his transition to professional hockey has been marred by injuries, while also highlighting existing and unrealized limitations with his athleticism and skating. There are genuine differences between what works in junior and what works in the AHL or NHL, and some players have more trouble than others at transforming and elevating their game in the necessary ways. Thomas still has a lot of time left in his career to turn things around, and if Los Angeles eventually decides to part ways with him there will surely be other teams willing to give him an opportunity for redemption and reclamation in a new environment.
Portillo saw the writing on the wall in Buffalo, with the Sabres having fellow highly-touted young netminders in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi in their system, and made it clear that he didn't prefer to sign his first NHL contract with them. The team eventually agreed, and his rights were traded to the Kings, where his path to success is more apparent. He's an enormous, fairly technically sound goalie who was a late bloomer and has since flashes some tantalizing potential. Still needs to refine the details in his play. He put up some dazzling numbers with Michigan, but on the flip side, had the luxury of playing behind a team that usually had the puck. The AHL might be an eye-opening challenge for him, and how he responds could be indicative of just how good he really is — and how good he could still become.
There is no feeling as uniquely satisfying for a scout than vouching for a prospect in the 7th round who turns out to be a solid professional player and eventually becomes a regular NHLer. Jämsen has accomplished the former and is on a good trajectory for the latter, so the Kings scouts who facilitated that selection must be at least a little excited right now. He is a toolsy winger who has played for his hometown hockey organization, the Lahti Pelicans, from their youth programs all the way up through every single level to Finland's highest league, the Liiga. And it was in the Liiga this season where he showed that his ability to be a credible offensive threat wasn't just confined to junior. Due to a lack of international exposure Jämsen is currently one of the best-kept secrets in the prospect world.
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