Jordan Staal – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:16:32 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MAY 07: Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) looks on during Game 3 of an Eastern Conference Second Round playoff game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on May 7, 2023, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

After a few seasons of coming up short in the playoffs, the Hurricanes were able to finally get back to the Eastern Conference Final last year. The pressure has been on Carolina to get further and while the stress on them isn’t as high as it is in other cities, internally the knowledge they can be so much better dictated they had to get beyond the second round. Carolina finished with 99 points and landed in second place in the Metropolitan Division behind the Washington Capitals. They continued to be a headache on ice for opponents with the way they’re able to dominate in shot attempts and scoring chances. They were the best team in the league at five-on-five in CorsiFor percentage (59.1) and expected goals for percentage (55.9). Playing against Carolina means having to weather the storm of pucks they send to the net and doing the best you can to counterattack. The science used to build the roster, and their game plan hasn’t gotten them to the Stanley Cup Final yet, but piece by piece they’re figuring out how to do it.

What’s Changed?

When the Hurricanes had to move on from Mikko Rantanen last season 13 games after they acquired him from Colorado, it reopened their desire for a top-flight scoring winger. They found him in free agency with Nikolaj Ehlers. Carolina signed Ehlers, arguably the top free agent available, to a six-year, $51.5 million contract and will most likely slot the 29-year-old Dane next to Sebastian Aho on the top line. They also bolstered their blue line acquiring K’Andre Miller from the New York Rangers for prospect Scott Morrow and 2026 first and second-round picks. Miller signed an eight-year, $60 million extension with the Rangers as part of the sign-and-trade deal and he figures to partner up with Jaccob Slavin. They added further defensive depth with a one-year deal for Mike Reilly.

What Would Success Look Like?

The goal for Carolina is to win the Stanley Cup. Although getting to the Stanley Cup Final would be the right gradual step forward after reaching the East Final last season, this is a team designed to win it all. The days of being satisfied making the postseason and winning a round or two are long gone and after years of sustained success, anything less than winning it all is a disappointment. Adding Ehlers and Miller are meant to make them better and more stout in their own end and the addition of Logan Stankoven in the Rantanen trade with Dallas also gave them more young talent to work with.

What Could Go Wrong?

Although one of the areas that’s appeared to hold them back the past few years has been goaltending, whether it was health or performance, Carolina is running it back again with Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. Andersen played well in the playoffs last year until they ran into Florida. If their goaltending duo can’t help them get over the hump, something would have to give, right? The Hurricanes are built well and slow starts the past two seasons allowed other teams in the Metropolitan Division to get out ahead of them to stay. Getting home ice throughout the postseason should be a priority, but if they have to play from behind again, it could feed back into the mental loop that they can’t get it done. Their time to win is now and has been.

Top Breakout Candidate

While K’Andre Miller will get a lot of attention on defence for Carolina, the player to keep an eye on is Alexander Nikishin. He was their third-round pick in 2020 and came over from Russia late last season in time to join the Hurricanes for the playoffs. He got four games in the postseason and is poised to be a key member of the defence corps this season. He was a big-time offensive weapon on the blue line for St. Petersburg SKA in the KHL. In 193 games with SKA, he had 45 goals and 112 assists (157 points). He skates well with the puck and at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he’s got plenty of size to handle the NHL.

FORWARDS

Sebastian Aho

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	33	51	84	1.06

“What about Sebastian Aho?” should be the reply to anyone asking when the Hurricanes are going to add an elite goal scorer. Carolina’s start player has never scored fewer than 24 goals in a season over his entire career, finding sneaky ways to get himself open around the net both at even strength and the power play. He also carries the team’s shoot-first mindset with him, always looking at the net first to see if he can get the puck there before deferring to someone else. It’s not the main thing he’s known for because he does so many other things well, but if the Canes need a goal, he’s usually the first one to step up. Last year was somewhat of a down season due to a shooting percentage dip and power play production. Aho also acted as more of a playmaker with his linemates starting to find the back of the net more. Helping Seth Jarvis have a career season, Jack Roslovic scoring 20 goals and setting up Mikko Rantanen during his brief spell with the team. He’s also one of the most dangerous players in the league shorthanded; he and Jarvis are always looking to break the other way when they’re on the penalty kill. The potential fit with newcomer Nikolaj Ehlers is exciting to think about, as that’s another top caliber linemate for the Hurricanes star forward and could be enough to get him back over the point-per-game hump. There is always the question of what he can do to break into that elite category of centers because he’s always considered just in the tier below. Some are still waiting for him to have that one truly elite season where he puts up close to 100 points. That day may not ever come, but the Hurricanes will go as far as Aho can take them.

Nikolaj Ehlers

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	27	35	62	0.84

Ehlers’ career in Winnipeg can be summed up as “great but could have been more.” You could argue he was the most talented player on the roster during his run there and had stretches where he was the best player on the ice. He just never produced at a superstar level and while that’s an arbitrary definition, the Jets never played Ehlers like he was one of their best players. He was always on the second line, separate from Mark Scheifele, while also playing on the second power play unit. Scheifele’s chemistry with Kyle Connor, Winnipeg’s desire to spread the wealth and the lack of trust in Ehlers to play 20+ minutes a night being the main reasons. Only used on the first line in a “break glass in case of emergency” situation. It’s not automatic that Carolina will play him like a superstar, but he does check a lot of the boxes they need. Ehlers is an electrifying talent, effortlessly gains the zone to back the defence up, creates high danger chances by dominating the perimeter, getting the defence to breakdown by cycling them to death and, most importantly, he can score. His sneaky wrist shot is dangerous from all over the offensive zone, mostly because of his release and how much traffic the other forwards create from Ehlers keeping the defence focused on him patrolling the outside. It’s an ideal fit for a Carolina club looking for more game-breakers. They’re taking a risk on elite production following Ehlers if he gets the ice time, neither is a sure thing. If he isn’t, he adds to Carolina’s assortment of great players who are just shy of being considered elite.

Andrei Svechnikov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	31	35	66	0.86

Last season was Svechnikov’s first true down season. He produced at his lowest rate since his rookie season with half of his 20 goals coming on the power play and another four being empty net goals. It’s not what you want to see from a player touted for his goal-scoring prowess going back to his draft year. It’s the one area where he’s really stagnated the last few seasons, his goal scoring rate steadily declining since his 30-goal season in 2022. He was on the scoresheet more often for taking penalties than anything else. Svechnikov salvaged this with a remarkable playoff run, where he scored eight goals and was team’s best player through the first two rounds. It was there you saw him look like the sniper and the power forward the team has been waiting to show up for almost six years now. He is a talent you keep betting on because even in a down season you saw what makes him a difference maker. He is a scoring chance machine with a hard shot who can win a few games for you on his own when he’s dialed in. Also, very lethal as a playmaker, as teams caught onto his shot early and he had to add more of a passing dimension to his game. The issue is Carolina doesn’t see this version of him often enough. It keeps him from breaking into that upper echelon of players but he’s still young enough to not assume his best days are behind him. Svechnikov has everything it takes to be the Hurricanes best player, he just needs to show it more often.

Seth Jarvis

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	41	77	0.94

While Necas carried the Hurricanes offence in the first half with his torrid start, Jarvis was not far behind. He was arguably the team’s best player in the second half of the season, kicking things off strong with 11 goals in the month of January and recording back-to-back 30 goal seasons. The ideal Carolina forward, Jarvis brings a lethal combination of skill and grit, always playing with a high level of intensity and his offence has reached another level the last couple of seasons. His game is all about hustle, but what’s made him more dangerous now is the level of detail in his skill game, always buying himself an extra second or two with the puck to get more on his shot or pick a corner. He’s also more comfortable with commanding the offence, using his teammates better and improving his playmaking game, whereas in previous seasons he was more of a straight-line player who would always take the puck to the net on first instinct. That is still a huge part of his game, as he’s incredibly strong on his skates while battling for position and he’s one of the team’s best finishers on breakaways. It helps him on both sides of the puck, as Jarvis excels at the keep-away style of defence with constantly chipping pucks out of the zone and disrupting plays to the point. It is also a reason his penalty killing unit with Aho is one of the most dangerous in the league, frequently creating more scoring chances shorthanded than the power plays they go up against. He might be the one Hurricanes forward who is closest to breaking into that elite tier.

Logan Stankoven

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	21	27	48	0.59

It is hard to not notice Stankoven’s size, or lack thereof. It’s usually the first thing anyone points out with him looking every bit of 5-foot-8, 170 pounds. He is also quick to make it an afterthought with how relentless he plays the game. Stankoven is a dog on a bone when going after pucks, using that lower center of gravity to get the inside track on defencemen and he’s also a lot stronger than he looks, as he’s very hard to get off the puck. It made him a valuable player to have in front of the net both in Dallas and Carolina, being able to locate loose pucks and take a beating from defencemen despite being undersized. The finishing he showed in juniors and the AHL hasn’t quite blossomed in the big league yet, effective at getting to the net but struggling to score from distance. Some parts of Stankoven’s offensive game are a bit rushed, as he’s very quick to get his shot off with the defensive pressure ramped up. Figuring out how to add that finesse he showed at the lower level is the key to unlocking his next level. Although his current track record is fantastic as a play-driving forward with a lot of upside, which the Hurricanes certainly believe in as they signed him to a six-year deal in the off-season. We saw glimpses of how high his potential is in the post-season, especially as a goal-scorer so they’re expecting this deal to become a bargain very soon.

Jackson Blake

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	25	47	0.57

As a smaller forward, Blake has done nothing but shatter expectations in his young career. Completely bypassing the AHL after a superstar season at North Dakota, he made the Hurricanes roster out of camp, starting on the fourth line with limited power play time and becoming a regular player on the first line with Sebastian Aho by the end of the year. Blake’s relentless pursuit of the puck on the forecheck made him a natural fit on the Hurricanes and he is fearless with cutting to the middle of the ice with the puck. Not the fastest player but can weave through traffic better than most when he gets the motor going. This is especially noticeable in the neutral zone, where he adds another dimension to how the Hurricanes zone entry scheme as a grittier player who can also make plays with the puck at the blue line. The learning process was tough for Blake, going through a mid-season scoring drought but finishing on a strong note with five goals in his last seven games. Blake’s stick-handling ability made him a great fit on the top line but did get outmatched by stronger defenders when trying to take it to the net. This led to him frequently deferring to his linemates when he had shooting opportunities and limiting some of his game. All part of the process in your first NHL season. The Hurricanes saw enough to make him part of their core long-term with a six-year extension.

Taylor Hall

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	22	38	0.51

At this point in his career, having a player like Taylor Hall on your top line isn’t ideal but he’s a luxury in the middle of your lineup. Transitioning into more of a role player, Hall can still have the odd game where he’s the best player on the ice. His puck-carrying skill is still unmatched, being able to find lanes through defensive coverage and setup shop in the offensive zone. The speed might not be there anymore, but his skating is still fluid and effortless. He can flip possession without needing to move his feet much and it takes some pressure off his linemates. His offensive game has shifted from where it used to be, no longer a pure playmaker and taking on more of a shooting role after joining the Hurricanes. He didn’t score as much as you’d hope with how impressive he was by the eye test, having most of the offence go through him on cycles and helping his lines heavily tilt the ice in Carolina’s favor. This might be the new normal for him as a highly skilled second liner who is more known for setting the table rather than scoring the goals himself. An interesting player for Carolina to build their depth around as he gets older. They have some intriguing prospects knocking on the door and Hall is a good player to help them get acclimated to the NHL game.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	13	26	39	0.48

Stuck in neutral is the best way to describe Kotkaniemi’s career with the Hurricanes. The last few years he began the roster as the team’s second line center, mainly played an off-puck support role with Martin Necas. He’s a reliable enough player to help set the table for high-skilled linemates, making small connecting plays up the ice and sometimes making that one final pass to set up a scoring chance. He is just overly reliant on his linemates to see any production for how he plays, and sometimes it’s not always the case with how points are rewarded. The lack of assertiveness in Kotkaniemi’s game is the main thing that holds him back. He waits too often for the perfect shot to develop, doesn’t trust himself with carrying the puck up the ice and will defer to someone else quickly if there’s any pressure. He might start as the 2C in October, but he is usually shuffled onto the fourth line when the playoffs roll around. His strengths are somewhat redundant with Jordan Staal still on the team and his offensive game developing to the point where he’s a 2C hasn’t blossomed like the Hurricanes had hoped. If he was the third line center, it’s a moot point but Kotkaniemi is regularly slotted higher in the lineup in hopes that he can at least hold the fort down in a top six spot. With off-season rumors swirling about wingers Seth Jarvis or Logan Stankoven moving over to center, Kotkaniemi’s days of playing in the top six might be numbered.

Jordan Staal

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	10	25	35	0.49

Even at his age, Jordan Staal is still somewhat of a pillar for the Hurricanes. He can go long stretches without getting on the scoresheet, but it’s never part of his job description holding the team’s defensive structure in place as the shutdown center. Last year was one of his better recent ones in terms of point production, partially thanks to linemate Jordan Martinook having a career season. Staal defends best in the offensive zone, using that big body to jam up opponents breakout attempts and keep everything along the wall. Built like an NFL linebacker with a condor wingspan, Staal is going to stay an effective NHLer as long as his legs still work. He doesn’t need to take many strides to catch up to forwards or get a stick on a puck to deflect a pass. This is why he still gets heavy minutes despite his weak offensive production, sometimes leading forwards in ice time if the Canes have to defend a lead. His presence is both a positive and a negative because his defensive game is part of the team’s identity but it becomes noticeable how much of a drain on the offence he is when his ice time gets bumped into the 17-18 minute range. The third line center spot is his to lose, even at 37 years old.

DEFENCE

Jaccob Slavin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	4	20	24	0.20

Every year the Norris gets awarded, there becomes a side conversation for “best defensive defenceman” and Jaccob Slavin’s name is usually first on the list. Known for having the best defensive stick in the game, Slavin holds the Carolina defence corps together. Playing an ultra-aggressive style with his shifty footwork bailing him out of most tough situations. His style of defending is somewhat unorthodox, using all parts of his body to block shots, often sprawling onto the ice to block passing lanes and attacking forwards from an angle rather than head-on in a defensive posture. It doesn’t work for everyone, but Slavin has mastered his craft of being the Hurricanes “problem solver” in the defensive zone. He has the skillset to be a contribute offensively, but it’s where his game lacks some dynamic ability. He has an explosive first stride and is sneaky with getting his shot through but very deliberate with his decision-making, so it doesn’t make him the best offensive blue liner. This year will be a little different, with his defence partner from the last three seasons leaving in free agency and the team short on right-handed options, it’s been reported that Slavin could be playing his off-side next season. He has experience doing this, but you have to go all the way to his brief AHL stint in 2014 to find the last time he played this role regularly. Slavin is no stranger to having the pieces around him changing, but shifting to his off side will be a new challenge for him and the Hurricanes overall team defence hinges on his performance.

K'Andre Miller

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	8	28	36	0.47

Looking to fill a long-term hole, Carolina made one of the biggest trades of the off-season, acquiring K’Andre Miller in a sign-and-trade deal with the Rangers. They paid heavily for the defenceman and are paying him like a top-pair guy, so one would think he is going to be penciled into that role opening night. Miller is the complete package in terms of raw skill. He’s a very tall, mobile defenceman with a long reach and great instincts with the puck. Spending the last few years patrolling the Rangers shutdown pair alongside Jacob Trouba, it’s been somewhat of trial by fire, as he had to be the safety valve for Trouba’s aggressive play. He got a brief run with Adam Fox at the start of last season before being stapled to physical defenceman Will Borgen for rest of the year and Miller continued to play the safety valve role. Excellent at leading breakouts but not carrying the puck much and his offensive contributions took a dip, playing heavy minutes on the penalty kill with minimal usage on the power play. Also had his worst season at defending entries, giving up more chances off controlled entries than any other Rangers defenceman. Carolina has a good recent track record of getting the most out of skilled defenceman and Miller is going to be a major project for them. There’s a natural home for him alongside Slavin if the Canes veteran blue liner moves to his off side. Power play time is also open for him as the longtime Ranger has a fresh start in Raleigh.

Sean Walker

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	6	13	19	0.23

The combination of moving to a new team and having a clean bill of health did wonders for Sean Walker’s career. His first season in Carolina was mostly spent on the third pair with not much defensive trust placed in him. Whether that’s from being paired with offensive defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere or the coaches being worried about his size is up for debate, but something changed late in the season and carried into the playoffs. Walker became a regular 20+ minute defenceman by the end of the season and even got spot duty alongside Slavin in the Washington series. Walker was arguably the fastest and most explosive defenceman on the roster last season, not afraid to carry the puck and one of the best at generating controlled zone exits. Used his smaller height well to negate entries with his stick and lower body. Not having him available for most of the Florida series was more of a blow than it appeared from the outside. Even if you think he’s just a third pair guy, Walker dominated those minutes and that’s nothing to scoff at. He is someone who could ascend in the lineup next season depending. He got a brief audition with Slavin and the two looked like they had natural chemistry, but it’s likely some of the more higher profile pieces like Miller and Nikishin get first crack at trying out for the top pair.

Shayne Gostisbehere

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	7	37	44	0.58

The one pure offensive defenceman on the Hurricanes blue line, Gostisbehere feasted on the power play early in the season but saw his production dwindle as the year went on. Losing his top power play spot to Brent Burns in the middle of the season while the team was struggling. The Canes used him well at five-on-five, forming a dominant third pair with Sean Walker with heavy offensive zone deployment. Gostisbehere could play his game and attack the zone on resets and reloads in the neutral zone and quarterbacked the offence from the blue line well. He’s excellent at getting the high forward to miss and get a better shot from closer to the faceoff circle or find a pass from the middle of the ice. There isn’t much that has changed about his game going back to rookie season in Philadelphia, his feet are quick, and his offensive skillset is dynamic. Not the most physical player in the world, but the Hurricanes have no shortage of penalty killers on their roster. The full-time addition of Alexander Nikishin could impact Gostisbehere’s production depending on who wins the top power play spot. Gostisbehere has somewhat of an edge because of seniority but if Nikishin is all he is hyped to be, there will be some pressure for him to take that spot.

Goal

Frederik Andersen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
36	22	9	2	2	.902	2.42

There are plenty of exciting names sitting in the wings for the Carolina Hurricanes in net. But for at least one more year, expect the coastal team to hold the course and run it back with what they already know; for better or for worse, Carolina will start the 2025-26 season with both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov as their tandem once again. It's an intriguing choice, given that neither goaltender was particularly stellar last year - but interestingly enough, despite neither Kochetkov nor Andersen surpassing league-average performances on the year, the team ended up looking on paper like one of the most dominant forces in the East. And given that the roster has grown so accustomed to Andersen and Kochetkov over the last few seasons, it actually might not be a bad tactic on the team's part. It should prevent the coach staff from needing to adjust any defensive strategies to accommodate for a new goaltender in the building, while running out the last year of Andersen's contract and potentially even evaluating which of Cayden Primeau or Amir Miftakhov could be his successor. The only minor concern is how Kochetkov performed with a fairly heavy workload last year - but if Primeau is able to shoulder some of the workload that Andersen can't, it could be a best-case situation for Carolina as they continue to fight for a cup during their prime window.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Rossi stepping up, Kane thriving on the power play, Fantilli gets new opportunity, Knies back on track now that Mattews has returned and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 10 Jan 2025 21:06:16 +0000

Minnesota Wild Center Marco Rossi (23). (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Marco Rossi has stepped up in his second season, Patrick Kane is thriving on the power play, Adam Fantilli gets a new opportunity in Columbus, Matthew Knies is back on track now that Auston Mattews has returned and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Although his role as a top line centre in Minnesota has more value when Kirill Kaprizov is healthy, Marco Rossi is enjoying an excellent second season in the National Hockey League. Across his past 20 games, Rossi has delivered 20 points (9 G, 11 A) with 37 shots on goal and even with Kaprizov out, Rossi still has Matt Boldy and Mats Zuccarello skating on his wings, so there is sufficient skill on his flanks to keep the points coming.

#2 It’s not like Showtime Patrick Kane flies under the radar, but after a slow start to the season, the veteran right winger had tended to fall out of favour with fantasy managers. Since the Red Wings changed coaches however, going from Derek Lalonde to Todd McLellan, Kane has produced eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 17 shots on goal in six games. Five of those eight points have come on the power play, which has dramatically improved since the coaching change.

#3 Second year Blue Jackets centre Adam Fantilli has struggled to find his footing this season, making his return from a calf laceration that ended his 2023-2024 season prematurely. Fantilli does have five points (2 G, 3 A) during a four-game point streak and with Sean Monahan out of the lineup due to an upper-body injury, Fantilli is getting first crack at centering Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov on Columbus’ top line.

#4 Toronto Maple Leafs sophomore left winger Matthew Knies had just one assist in his past eight games when Auston Matthews returned from injury. Since Matthews’ return, Knies has produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a four-game point streak. He has also hit extremes on the plus-minus front just in that four-game span, going +6 in a win over Boston and -5 in a loss at Carolina. With 16 goals, Knies ranks third on the Maple Leafs and his 22 even-strength points is tied for 63rd in the entire league. Skating on a line with Matthews and Mitch Marner is certainly a prime position for Knies to generate more offence

#5 Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn plays more of a supporting role at this stage of his career, but the 35-year-old left winger continues to deliver. In his past 19 games, Benn has produced 18 points (7 G, 11 A) with 43 shots on goal. With 57 hits in 40 games, Benn continues to provide value for fantasy managers. He is not the dominant force that he was during his peak years but remains a valuable commodity when he is scoring like he has over the past couple of months.

#6 Some lineup shuffling in Dallas has resulted in right winger Evgeni Dadonov moving up the depth chart to skate alongside Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on the Stars’ top line. In his past 10 games, Dadonov has contributed 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal. He is a four-time 20-goal scorer, so Dadonov has shown that he is a legitimate scoring winger, but at 35 years old, it’s fair to wonder whether his recent uptick in production can continue over the long run. As long as he is playing with Robertson and Hintz, Dadonov should generate interest from fantasy managers.

#7 After managing just 40 points in 82 games for the Kings last season, Pierre-Luc Dubois needed a big bounce-back season and his arrival in Washington has provided him with a fresh start. In his past 18 games, Dubois has 19 points (5 G, 14 A) with 39 shots on goal. Dubois is thriving on a line between Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson, though Dubois has also had success with Aliaksei Protas in McMichael’s place, too.

#8 Injuries tend to be part of the package for Colorado Avalanche left winger Jonathan Drouin, but he is productive when healthy and had a career-high 56 points (19 G, 37 A) in 79 games last season. Since returning from injury this season, he has put up six points (1 G, 5 A) in five games, giving him 10 points in 10 games this season. Drouin has landed on the Avs’ top line, with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is one of the premier opportunities afforded to any point-producing forward.

#9 With a hat trick against Toronto on Thursday, Carolina Hurricanes centre Jordan Staal is up to 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Staal is an elite checking centre, who has been criminally underrated in Selke Trophy voting, though he was runner-up last season and fourth the year before. Nevertheless, the 36-year-old pivot is on pace for more than 40 points, which would be the first time since 2017-2018 that he surpassed that threshold. He has had a couple of seasons in that time in which he scored at a higher per-game rate but missed time due to injury (2018-2019) and a shortened season (2020-2021).

#10 Staal’s teammate Eric Robinson is not really one for fantasy managers except in the deepest of leagues, but the 29-year-old winger also scored against Toronto, and he has 21 points (10 G, 11 A) in 42 games, moving him to within six points of his career high of 27 points. Robinson is lunch-box-and-hard-hat type of player who gives an honest effort and plays a physical game. He had some modest success in Columbus but could not settle into a consistent role in Buffalo last season. His move to Carolina this season has brought a fresh start and improved production. Robinson does not play a lot – about 12 minutes per game – but has recently moved up the depth chart to join Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas on Carolina’s second line.

#11 Veteran Anaheim Ducks centre Ryan Strome has started to pick up his production after a slow start to the campaign. He has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past seven games, and while it’s not unusual that he has Frank Vatrano skating on his left side, the veteran duo had rookie Sam Colangelo on the right wing for Tuesday’s game against Calgary. However, that was due to Troy Terry missing the game for the birth of his child, so when Terry returns, that is an established and proven trio of forwards that can help steer the Ducks in the right direction.

#12 It would be fair to characterize Erik Karlsson’s tenure with the Pittsburgh Penguins as underwhelming, but it should still be noted that he can deliver points. In his past 11 games, he has a dozen points (2 G, 10 A) and is averaging 23:43 of ice time per game. He is back on Pittsburgh’s top power play unit and, considering his pedigree, Karlsson might be a decent buy-low candidate for fantasy managers because there just aren’t that many defencemen who have 100-point seasons in their history.

#13 Penguins left winger Michael Bunting has become a reliable contributor. He has been on a point-per-game pace over his past 18 games, with 18 points (9 G, 9 A), including 10 points on the power play. Bunting has recorded 48 percent of his points on the power play this season, the same as Steven Stamkos. Among players with at least 20 points, these are the only players with a higher percentage of points on the power play: Shayne Gostisbehere (66.7 percent), Jake Sanderson (63.6 percent), Kevin Fiala (50 percent), Teuvo Teravainen (50 percent), Drake Batherson (50 percent), Gabriel Vilardi (48.7 percent), and Chandler Stephenson (48.1 percent),

#14 The Washington Capitals have been one of the great surprises in the NHL this season and part of the reason is their addition of defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who has always been a capable scorer, but injuries have prevented him from maximizing his potential. This season, though, he has stayed healthy and is piling up points. In the past 21 games, Chychrun has 20 points (6 G, 14 A). Among defencemen, since 2019-2020, only Cale Makar (99) and Roman Josi (96) have scored more goals than Chychrun’s 71 goals.

#15 With Jared Spurgeon and Brock Faber injured, Minnesota Wild defenceman Jonas Brodin has become an unexpected offensive contributor. In his past seven games, Brodin has seven points (2 G, 5 A) while playing a whopping 26:35 per game. Brodin scored a career-high 30 points in 2021-2022 but has largely been a standout defensive presence in his career. With 16 points in 31 games this season, Brodin could set a new career high for points, but the moment that Faber and Spurgeon return, Brodin will likely return to his defensive focus.

#16 An unlikely source of offence lately, Florida Panthers forward Jesper Boqvist has eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his past eight games. He has been skating at right wing on the third line with Anton Lundell and Carter Verhaeghe, which does offer some upside. He doesn’t play enough to have wide fantasy appeal, averaging 12:38 time on ice per game in the past eight, but as a short-term fix, Boqvist might have a little bit of unexpected value.

#17 When the San Jose Sharks traded for goaltender Yaroslav Askarov, acquiring him from the Nashville Predators, it was easy to view him as the Sharks’ goaltender of the future. He has played seven games for the Sharks this season, posting a .923 save percentage, and the 22-year-old has done nothing to dispel the notion that he will not only be the Sharks’ starting goaltender, but he might be a very good one, at that. In the short term, Askarov may not play enough to have huge fantasy value, but that day is coming.

#18 Ottawa Senators centre Tim Stutzle has been enjoying a bounce-back season and has 41 points in 40 games, but he has it a dry spell lately, managing one assist in his past five games. While a small sample of games like that should not hold great sway on his fantasy value but it is at least a little concerning that of the six games that Stutzle has failed to record a shot this season, three of them have come in the past five games. He is skating with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson at evens, certainly a skilled enough line to put up some points, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the Sens’ rising star.

#19 Philadelpia Flyers rookie right winger Matvei Michkov got off to a blazing start in his first NHL season, scoring 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in his first 27 games. In the past month, though, he has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 13 games. He does have 33 shots on goal in that time, so it’s not like he isn’t getting chances, but this slump has been carrying on for quite a while. Right now, he is skating on a line with Scott Laughton and Morgan Frost, and is on Philadelphia’s second power play unit, which isn’t exactly going to drag him back into a more productive place. He might be a buy-low target at this point.

#20 It has not been an easy season for the Boston Bruins, as they are clinging to a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, after typically battling for the best record year after year. The Bruins are winless in six straight games and team captain Brad Marchand has no goals and two assists in his past seven games. If there is reason to be hopeful about Marchand, it is that the has generated 26 shots on goal in those seven games and has been a high percentage finisher throughout his career, scoring n 15.1 percent of his shots for his whole career, but what would be a career low of 11.4 percent this season. Marchand is playing with Elias Lindholm and Charlie Coyle right now, but if the winless streak continues, there could be more line shuffling in Boston.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 23 Sep 2023 18:10:29 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MAY 09: Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns (8) looks on during Game 4 of an Eastern Conference Second Round playoff game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on May 9, 2023, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Rod Brind'Amour coaching era continued to be a great time for Carolina in 2022-23. There were some serious issues with Andrei Svechnikov being limited to 64 games, Teuvo Teravainen scoring just 37 points and posting his lowest points-per-game (0.54) since 2016-17 and Max Pacioretty missing almost the entire campaign with a torn Achilles. However, thanks to the rise of Martin Necas and offensive defenseman Brent Burns entering another chapter in his fantastic career, the Hurricanes were able to at least be serviceable offensively and, when combined with their stellar defense, they navigated to a 52-21-9 record and third straight division title. Carolina then made it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in five years before running into Florida and getting absolutely goalied by the red-hot Sergei Bobrovsky.

What’s Changed? After Pacioretty spent most of the 2022-23 campaign on the long-term injured reserve list, the Hurricanes let him walk as an unrestricted free agent. Instead, they signed Michael Bunting to a three-year, $13.5 million contract in the hopes he’ll provide some scoring depth and grit. They also signed defenseman Tony DeAngelo, who has a checkered past, but saw success under Brind'Amour during the 2021-22 campaign and might serve a function again this year, especially on the power play after Carolina finished 20th in that regard in 2022-23 with a 19.8% conversion rate.

What would success look like? Making the playoffs is to be expected at this point, so Carolina’s success will instead by measured by how they do in the postseason. Teravainen missed a good chunk of the 2023 playoffs because of a hand injury, but given his regular season struggles, it’s not clear how helpful he would have been even if he was healthy. A strong campaign out of him would go a long way towards stabilizing the Hurricanes’ offense and putting them in a better position to power through if they run into a hot goaltender again.

What could go wrong? After failing to acquire Erik Karlsson on the trade market, the Hurricanes will still be relying heavily on Burns as their primary puck-moving blueliner, but he’s 38 years old now, so it’s hard to know how much more he’s got left in him. True, they do have DeAngelo again, but he’s usually a defensive liability and thus not a true replacement for Burns if the veteran blueliner takes a significant step back. There’s also a risk that Teravainen won’t bounce back or will once again run into injury troubles. Bunting might not pay off either. While he should provide some sandpaper at least, he also tends to get in trouble, and he’s going from a situation where he largely played alongside Auston Matthews to likely serving on the Hurricanes’ third line, so he might fail to reach even the 40-point milestone this year.

Top Breakout Candidate: If Carolina’s offense could use one more great weapon, then Seth Jarvis might be it. After scoring 31 goals and 79 points in 150 career contests, the 21-year-old forward is well positioned to take the next step. Selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, Jarvis is projected to serve on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho this year and should get a decent amount of power-play ice time too.

Forwards

Sebastian Aho - C

A model of consistency for the Hurricanes, Aho scored at a 35+ goal pace for the fourth year in a row. Whether it’s scoring goals or killing penalties, he is the engine that drives the Hurricanes. The team recognized it by re-signing him to an eight-year contract with a cap hit of $9.75 million AAV. Aho has the skillset that can thrive in any system and game situation, possessing an explosive first step and great vision to create quick-strike offense off the rush. An element the Hurricanes don’t have much of. He also doesn’t need a lot of space to create chances, being able to test goaltenders from awkward angles and find loose spots in coverage. This is a crucial skillset on a forecheck-heavy team like Carolina, so the strong work he does on the penalty kill and in the defensive zone is an added bonus. They are hoping he gets a little more finishing help from his linemates this year, as Aho produced at under the point-per-game mark last year despite a 36-goal season. It’s the one thing keeping him from being considered in the elite class of the NHL.

Andrei Svechnikov - LW

Around mid-November, it looked like Svechnikov was heading for stardom. He had 11 goals and 17 points in only 14 games, culminating with a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers on Nov. 12th. Since then, he scored only 12 goals in his next 50 games before a knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. Svechnikov has the complete package of an elite power forward. He can move the puck from one zone to the next without much effort and take the puck from the wall to the net better than almost anybody. The goals just haven’t followed as much as anybody hoped. He still provided a lot of value as a playmaker, especially in the left circle on the power play, but not at the superstar level the team envisioned. Being a streaky goal-scorer, he was primed to finish the season on a strong note but never got a chance. Right now, he is someone with a game-breaking skillset that hasn’t had the results to match it, but at only 23-years old he has plenty of time to break into that class. Carolina is hoping the goals come to him for the rest of the year as easily as they did in October.

Martin Necas - RW

Carolina wasn’t sure what they had in Martin Necas around this time last year. He was signed to a two-year bridge deal after a disappointing 40-point season and responded by having a true breakout season. Doubling his goal total and leading the team in points with 71 in 82 games. Carolina used him on the penalty kill, their top power play unit and extensively in overtime, scoring four game-winners. He excels in the playmaker role, as he loves to roam the perimeter and the neutral zone looking to thread the needle through defenders. That is still part of his game, but he toned it back a little this year and became more of a dual-threat with creating his own shot by getting to the slot on his own or using his linemates on quick give-and-go plays instead of settling for low-percentage passes to nobody. This resulted in more consistent production from Necas and made him one of Carolina’s more reliable players for most of the year. Keeping this up through April and May is the next step for the former first round pick.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi - C

The Hurricanes were waiting for Kotkaniemi to take that next step and in some ways he did. Jumping from the fourth line to the second line, the former third overall pick made some strides as one of the team’s rocks in their top-nine. Doing a lot of the little things and providing a steadying presence alongside Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas. He posted some of the strongest defensive numbers on the team, limiting shots and scoring chances while getting the tough matchups some nights. His offensive game is still a work in progress, as he isn’t very quick with the puck and opts for the simple play more times than not. It started to come around for him in the second half, as he posted 31 points in 46 games after Jan 1^st with career highs across the board. There is always going to be the question of if he can do more and become a true game-breaker for Carolina, but he is currently poised to be their shutdown center of the future.

Michael Bunting - LW

Every top-six need complementary players and you’ll struggle to find a better one than Michael Bunting. He has spent the last two years skating on the Maple Leafs top line after a long career in the minors and parlayed it into a nice three-year deal with Carolina. He knows how to take advantage of playing with elite talent, always finding the soft spots in coverage or being a nuisance in front of the net. Last year was somewhat of a down season for him, as he was more of a pain for the officials than opposing goaltenders, but he still scored a respectable 23 goals. His skillset fits the Hurricanes needs, as they needed a jolt in their top-six and Bunting is the complementary, net front player Aho has missed in recent years. He should have plenty of rebound opportunities in Carolina.

Seth Jarvis - RW

The sophomore slump can be tough for some players, and this was true for Seth Jarvis. Not only did he struggle to get on the scoresheet, but he wasn’t creating chances or driving play at the same level he was in his rookie year. Part of it was bad luck, as his shooting percentage dropped by over 50%, the other was Jarvis struggling to create on his own. In his rookie season, he was one of the team’s better players at creating in transition, making the extra play in the neutral zone to create quick-strike offense. Last year, other players had to set him up and he was poaching more goals from in front of the net. He had a slight resurgence in the second half, but still failed to top his numbers from his rookie season. Still young, Jarvis is still finding his way in the league and the Canes are hoping he can return to being more of a consistent threat in the top-six.

Teuvo Teravainen - LW

Teravainen had a rare down season in his seven-year Hurricane career, spending various times on injured reserve and scoring at only a 44-point pace, which would be his lowest since 2016-17. Most of his best skills are away from the puck. Always in the right position to receive a pass, disrupt a cycle or make it tougher to get through the neutral zone. Those parts of Teravainen’s game were still there, but the offense was steps behind his usual pace. His hands weren’t as quick or sharp as they usually are and most of his one-timers ended up going nowhere near the target. He did what he could to pitch in, but it is tough to be a key player on a top line when you don’t get a lot of puck touches and you can’t execute at the same level as you used to. Carolina is sticking with him in the final year of his contract, and he will have some competition to keep his spot on Aho’s wing.

Jordan Staal - C

Not much happens when Jordan Staal is on the ice and that’s usually a good thing for your team’s shutdown center. The Canes don’t score a lot of goals when his line is out there but neither do their opponents. This has been his role for most of his 12-year career in Raleigh. His condor wingspan and huge frame make him a tough matchup, as he excels at playing the keep away brand of hockey the Hurricanes have made their bread and butter. The offense usually comes in bunches for him, as 11 of his 17 goals came in a 30-game span from December to February and his puck skills haven’t gotten much better as he’s gotten older. Playing a basic brand of offense where he scores most of his goals from brute force than a high level of finesse. Still, when playoff time comes, he is the one who gets the matchup minutes and it’s a big reason why the Canes re-signed him to a four-year deal.

Stefan Noesen - RW

Noesen played his way back into the NHL after an incredible season with the Chicago Wolves and a strong training camp. He didn’t relinquish this spot and became more of an important player on the Hurricanes as the year went on, playing anywhere from the top line to the fourth line. Also earning some spot duty as a net front player on the top power play unit. This was especially important in the playoffs where he was a permanent fixture in the top-six due to a barrage of injuries in Carolina’s wing depth. He possesses a Swiss-army knife skillset where he can fill in almost anywhere, playing the high-intensity game needed for a checking line role and having enough puck skill to take advantage of playing with top liners. He showed some limitations keeping up with the speed of the game, but his stint in Carolina has rejuvenated his career as a role player who can pitch in anywhere.

Defense

Brent Burns - D

While on the back nine of his career, a stop in Carolina was just what the former Norris winner needed to get his game back on track. He could play most of the game with the puck in front of him, taking advantage of Carolina’s strong possession game and got back to a level we saw in the mid-2010’s with the Sharks. With most of the Hurricane’s offense being based off point shots and deflections, this was a perfect environment for Burns to get his career back on track and he posted his highest point total since 2018. He also was a regular on their penalty kill and more than held his own at even strength, especially in the defensive zone. Provided more of a physical presence on their top pair and giving them a dynamic shooting threat at the point. The only question with Burns is how soon he starts to look like a defenseman pushing 40. He is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the league, so he has a little more rope than others, but father time is undefeated.

Jaccob Slavin - D

Regarded as one of the league’s top defensive defensemen, 2022-23 was another year at the office for Jaccob Slavin. Posting solid numbers on the Hurricanes top pair while pitching in on offense when needed. He saw a big drop in his point production, but this is secondary when considering that he spent most of his five-on-five ice time with Brent Burns, who is taking most of the shot opportunities on that pair. He is the prototype for the modern shutdown defenseman, a lanky player with a great reach and someone who takes terrific angles to disrupt even some of the best skating forwards. It has been this way since he entered the league in 2015 and his game has yet to drop off despite the massive workload he takes on, playing in all situations for the Canes. We should expect more of the same, although with even less power play time on Carolina’s stacked defense corps.

Dmitry Orlov - D

A surprising move to kick off free agency was Carolina signing Dmitry Orlov to a two-year deal, paying him $7.75 million AAV, and creating an embarrassment of riches on their blue line. Where he slots in will be interesting, but he possesses a terrific all-around skillset. He can play the skilled game, as he’s an excellent puck-mover who loves joining the rush, as well as the physical game. Stepping up on forwards at the opposing blue line is one of his trademarks. Orlov’s playing style is more about his skill with the puck, but he’s been used in more of a shutdown role for most of his career. He was always the rock in Washington’s top four that allowed John Carlson to focus more on offense in easier matchups, so it will be interesting to see how the Canes utilize him. He saw his boxcar stats blow up in his short stint with Boston alongside Charlie McAvoy, recording 17 points in 23 games (after only 19 in 43 with the Caps). The flashes were always there with Washington even if the point total never was. The only major concern with him is that he’s 32-years old and hasn’t played a full season since 2019.

Tony DeAngelo - D

The talented defenseman made the most of what was a “last chance” type of deal in Carolina two years ago. The Canes opted to walk from his RFA deal, trading him to Philadelphia, who happily paid him $5 million AAV. In a sense, they got what they expected out of DeAngelo. He scored a career high 11 goals, quarterbacked their top power play unit and he had a standard year for himself offensively. However, he was also tasked with playing a bigger role outside of the insulation he got on Carolina’s top pair alongside Jaccob Slavin, tasked with more defensive responsibility and having to play tougher minutes in general. He handled the puck-moving part of his role well, but his small frame and over-aggressive play made him a tough fit in the top-four, with the Flyers moving him down in the lineup as the season went on. They opted to buy out the last year of his contract after a trade with the Hurricanes fell through and Carolina happily signed him at a low-dollar contract hit at $1.675 million for one season. Having even more help around him now, he is in a good position to have another nice offensive season. Carolina knows how to play to his strengths and have a deep defense corps.

Brady Skjei - D

Only six defensemen have scored more than 20 goals over the past two seasons and Brady Skjei is one of them. It has been interesting to watch his career revival since being acquired from the Rangers in early 2020. He came to the team as a large, physical defenseman who could skate well but not provide much value outside of the penalty kill. As he got more acclimated to the system, the rest of his game started to come around. He became a very solid top-four defenseman who could handle the tough matchups alongside Brett Pesce and gave the Canes two pairs they can trust against anybody. The real surprise, however, was the offense. Skjei became one of the team’s best shooters, always getting room to pick a corner off the rush or on a cycle from the left faceoff circle. He doubled his career high in goals and tied a Carolina record for goals by a defenseman. It’s tough to see this carrying over, especially with Orlov in the fold now, and the goal-scoring covered up some of the high-risk parts of his game. Not enough that he should be demoted to the third pair, but the depth Carolina has on defense might force him into a more low-leverage role.

Goaltending

Frederik Andersen - G

Few goaltenders had better bounce-back years than veteran netminder Frederik Andersen upon his arrival in Carolina. He was one-half of a somewhat surprising tandem brought on board by the Hurricanes in the 2021 off-season, brought on after a disappointing end to his career in Toronto to tandem with fellow veteran Antti Raanta after the Hurricanes all but cleaned house in net. The team’s gamble paid off, with Andersen posting one of his best statistical seasons in his first full year in Raleigh – and although he wasn’t quite able to replicate that this past year, it’s still not quite time to panic for the Hurricanes as they consider one more year of Andersen at the helm.

He remains the sturdier veteran option for Carolina despite posting the worst numbers of the team’s three 2022-23 netminders. Those numbers, though, looked less like a legitimate regression and more like the result of a little bit of fatigue, a little bit of bad luck, and a pinch of expected aging slowing him down. Andersen is still a goaltender who does well making the first move, pushing out to get set for a shot in advance and recovering to his feet rather than spending the bulk of his time on his knees. But his edges have slowed a hair in the last few years, and he’s never quite been able to thrive making desperation saves through traffic – so as his game has matured over the years, he’s become less likely to steal saves when his sightlines are taken away on defensive breakdowns. Luckily, the Carolina system works well in his favor, so he should still be a good option for the Hurricanes as they transition to Pyotr Kotchetkov. But he no longer has a clear statistical advantage over Antti Raanta as the option the Hurricanes should turn to if they need to choose between one or the other; if anything, his security with the Hurricanes relies more on Raanta’s ever-questionable health than on his own performances.

Projected starts: 30-35

Antti Raanta - G

There isn’t much left to say for Antti Raanta at this point that hasn’t already been said. The Finnish netminder might be the most injury-prone workhorse in the league; he’s guaranteed to go down with at least one or two scrapes and bruises every year but is perhaps the most likely veteran in the entire NHL to maintain his good numbers whether he’s missed a week or half a season with an injury. Last season was a case in point; even though he only appeared in 27 games all year, he was still Carolina’s strongest statistical performer and put up his seventh year with at least a .910 unadjusted save percentage. He still plays a reliable, consistent style that challenges skaters to look for holes in his coverage and then utilizes quick recoveries and effective hands to close them off once the puck has left someone’s stick. And like every other year, he’s still only as reliable as his body; while Carolina almost certainly wishes they could use him as a steady presence to usher Kotchetkov into the NHL full-time, he’s failed to string together a lengthy enough healthy stretch in any season for nearly his entire decade-long career for any GM to feel comfortable keeping him as their only veteran option. He’s effective to have around, especially if the Hurricanes are worried that Andersen may be headed for another season of regression – but unless they’re confident Kotchetkov can stay in the NHL full-time and put up a 45-plus game campaign, they can’t keep Raanta as their only piece of the puzzle.

Projected starts: 35-40

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW – CAROLINA HURRICANES VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – Early games will be critical

Corey Sznajder — Wed, 17 May 2023 20:50:43 +0000

RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 30: Florida Panthers Left Wing Eetu Luostarinen (27) maintains possession of the puck from Carolina Hurricanes Defenceman Jaccob Slavin (74) during the game between the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes on December 30, 2022 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

In a post-season that has destroyed everybody’s brackets, the Eastern Conference is left with a surprising final matchup between Carolina and Florida. On one hand, it’s not a huge shock to see Carolina here even if they have struggled past the first round in recent years. Whether it’s the lack of star power, the forward injuries or the goaltending, there was always a layer of skepticism with this team in the playoffs. Their regular season dominance didn’t matter because you always wondered if they had anybody who could score the big goal when they needed it or if they can get enough saves.

After grinding out a first round series against the Islanders and making short work of the Devils, the conversation around Carolina has shifted dramatically. Frederik Andersen has taken the reins as the team’s starter and was excellent in four out of the five games. They’re getting goals from all over the lineup (including a stunning 10-point series from Jordan Martinook) and are getting superstar level defensive play from the duo of Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns. They might not have anyone putting up gaudy stat totals, but the stars are aligning for this team to go on a run because they’ve got the entire lineup playing good hockey with no real drags.

The only thing standing in their way is a Florida team that has crushed a lot of dreams this spring. It’s not often the Cinderella story of the playoffs is last year’s Presidents Trophy winners, but Florida is coming off a very strange regular season. They were one of the league’s disappointments for most of the year, struggling to put wins together and sitting outside the playoff picture for most of the year. Trading Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk looked like the team taking a step back for this year for long-term gain while handing the coaching clipboard from Andrew Brunette to Paul Maurice looked like a disaster. It took time for the new coaching staff to gel with the roster and lucky for Panthers, the rest of the East met them at halfway.

The Cats have been on a path of destruction since, knocking off a record-setting Boston Bruins squad in seven games and shocking the Toronto Maple Leafs in five, winning six out of seven games on the road to boot. The playoffs can be a tricky game like this because you can wash away a lot of what you did wrong in the regular season once you get to the dance. It’s not true for all teams, but when you have two 40-goal scorers, a Hart finalist and most of the core pieces of a forward group that smoked the entire league only a year ago, you’re a little more formidable than the average wild card squad.

It's an interesting matchup because both teams have a case to go with the “Why not us?” approach even if Carolina was the better team in the regular season. The playoffs tend to be more about matchups and being opportunistic, so this is a series that could really go either way. Carolina has shown that they can score enough to win a playoff series, but Florida has shown some versatility in how they play that wasn’t there last year or the regular season. Is it enough to give them an edge over Carolina’s rigid structure, though?

The Matchup

Comparing the two team’s on paper is tough because Florida’s played a different style than what they did in the regular season. Attacking off the rush was a big part of their game last year and still was this year despite the coaching change. Against Boston, it was all about their forecheck, scoring 10 of their five-on-five goals in the regular season that way compared to only three off the rush. This is where having a guy like Tkachuk who can play both sides at a high level is so valuable because it really makes your team adaptable to every situation and a matchup nightmare. This carried over to the Toronto series as well, but counter-attacking was just as important to their game and guys like Verhaeghe and Reinhart reminded everyone just how dangerous of shooters they are.

Which part of their game shows up against Carolina is a tough question because the Hurricanes are one of the best defensive teams in the league for a reason. They do not make a lot of mistakes, especially exiting their zone. They don’t force plays when they aren’t open and while that made for a grind of a series against the Islanders, it was the perfect counter to the Devils rush-based offense and over-aggressive forecheck. They stopped a lot of plays in the neutral zone, got the puck out of the zone quickly without turning it over and made the Devils work for their space. With so much of Florida’s strategy against Boston and Toronto focused on shutting down controlled entries and exits, it will be interesting to see what they do against a team that doesn’t try to force those plays. We either could be in for a grindy series or a lot of back-and-forth contests with Florida trying to push for counter-attacks.

The other part where Florida could pose an advantage is their forward depth. As of right now, they’ve got Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart playing on different lines in the top-nine, which poses some matchups they can exploit when the game starts to break open. Carolina has a strong defensive presence on all four lines and a reliable third pair with Jalen Chatfield and Shayne Gostisbehere, but they also haven’t had a matchup where they’re facing an elite shooter almost every shift. Florida tends to spread the wealth with their forwards, so it gives Brind’Amour a decision of who he wants to deploy his matchups. The saving grace for them is that Jordan Staal has played like an elite shutdown center these playoffs and it gives him some flexibility to use Sebastian Aho in more offensive situations. He also caught some lightning in a bottle with Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jesper Fast and Jordan Martinook acting as a pseudo-top line last series with how much they produced. Expecting them to score in almost every game again is unrealistic, but it’s another reliable line the Canes can use.

There’s also a question of how much Florida’s advantage at forward will matter because Carolina’s done an excellent job of forcing teams to play in their own zone for most of the game. New Jersey found a way to get around that by adding Luke Hughes to the lineup, but Florida doesn’t have a talent in waiting like that on their blue line. The Canes made New Jersey’s top pair of Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton turn a lot of pucks over and it eventually took its toll on the rest of the team. Florida brings a little more physicality to the table on their blue line and it has been a big factor for their success in the playoffs, but this forecheck will be their biggest test yet.

The X-Factor

This comes down to goaltending and there’s no other way around it, especially when you consider that Carolina has surrendered only one lead all playoffs and Florida has come back to win five of their games, most notably the Game 7 rally against Boston. Sergei Bobrovsky has regained his starting job and is playing close to the level he was at in Columbus. This series will be a different challenge for him because Carolina is more of a shot-volume team that creates most of their chances through screens, deflections and having their defensemen try to pick a corner from distance. They’ll take a lot of the shots other teams give them in hopes that they can strike on the second chance and Bobrovsky is one of the best at shutting down these chances when he is on his game. He excels at taking away the lower part of the net and stopping rebounds, so Carolina will need to find some of the finishing touch they had against New Jersey to win.

At the other crease, we have Freddie Andersen, who has also recaptured the starting job after an injury. He has faced a significantly lighter workload than Bobrovsky in terms of shots, but the ones Carolina does make him face are usually high-danger chances. Andersen’s strength is that regardless of where the shot is from, if he can see the play developing, he’s going to stop it. He will have some misses (see Game 3 against Jersey), but when he is playing at his top level, he’s a bedrock for the Hurricanes success. They play an aggressive style in the defensive zone, so there will be situations where they leave a guy open or miss an assignment, which is where Andersen becomes a key player for them.

Prediction

Carolina has been a machine these playoffs and with Teuvo Teravainen returning to the lineup, they’re only getting healthier. Florida has every test they’ve faced so far, though. The first two games in Carolina will be critical, as the Panthers won at least one of the first two road games they played, stealing home ice advantage for the rest of the series. Carolina has been borderline unbeatable on home ice these playoffs, so the opening two games will play a huge factor in how the rest of the series goes. Carolina takes care of their business and wins the series in six.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:10:01 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Carolina Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (24) against the New York Rangers during Game 6 of round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs on May 28, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Sebastian Aho

The 24-year-old center has been Mr. Everything for the Hurricanes since joining the team back in 2016, leading the team in most statistical categories while producing at a point-per-game clip for the fourth year in a row. He has gone from the team’s best offensive player to their do-it-all player, frequently playing over 20 minutes a night and getting the matchups usually reserved for Jordan Staal. This includes heavy usage on the penalty kill, an area where he isn’t afraid to push for offense. He embodies Carolina’s tenacious playing style. Looking to pressure and forecheck first but will create if the opportunity presents itself. His explosive skating and great vision give him plenty chances to do this but his knack for goal-scoring is what sets him apart. Whether it’s from the bumper spot or in front of the net, Aho was a pain for goaltenders, potting a career high 37 goals with 13 of them coming on the power play. Game-breakers come in different packages and while Aho creates a lot in transition, most of his goal-scoring comes off “ugly” plays. He will always find a way to make space for himself off a cycle, get to a loose puck in the crease or get a decent one-time off from an awkward angle. This makes him the Hurricanes MVP when considering everything else he brings to the table.

Andrei Svechnikov

While passing the Michigan torch to Trevor Zegras, Svechnikov has emerged as one of the better playmakers in the league, although his assist total didn’t reflect that. Even after a 30-goal season, it felt like he left some offense on the table due to goalposts or poor finishing luck, both from him and his linemates. Creating offense has been so effortless for him since he came into the league and as he gets stronger, it’s been easy for him to get a step on defenders off the rush or winning a battle in front of the net. His underlying stats reflect this, as he is one of the best players in the league at creating scoring chances and high danger passes. It’s plausible to think there’s another level to Svechnikov’s game when taking this into account, especially with scoring increasing across the league. Right now, he’s in that upper echelon of players but inconsistent scoring along with his habit of taking countless undisciplined stick penalties keep him from the elite tier. He could easily be the best player on the Hurricanes by this time next year, as it only takes one stretch where everything clicks to break that glass ceiling.

Teuvo Teravainen

Sometimes good players benefit from playing in great situations and that was the case for Teravainen, scoring 9 power play goals from the right circle as PKs focused on Aho and getting plenty of lay-up scoring chances from Svechnikov. Primarily known as a playmaker and someone you’d have to beg to shoot the puck, Teravainen regained some of his goal-scoring touch and made the most of getting to play with some talented linemates. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for him, as he’s usually Aho’s wingman but his role is more about giving his linemates space, quick passes from the boards and great defensive positioning rather than highlight reel goals. As one of the smartest and longest tenured players on the team, Teravainen can probably excel in any role coach Brind’Amour puts him in. He might be leaned on for more goal-scoring now with Trocheck and Niederreiter going out the door and Pacioretty not available until February. Some of the extra offense they got from Teravainen came at the expense of his usually elite defensive play, which is a sacrifice the Hurricanes might be willing to make if they need him to be more than just the steady, complementary piece on the top line.

Max Pacioretty

When healthy, Pacioretty is exactly what the Hurricanes needed in the playoffs. A winger who can give them an “easy” goal while being a fit for the team’s forechecking system. Unfortunately, they won’t have him in their lineup for the first four months of the season, as he will be recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. This is after a season where he was limited to only 39 games after a foot injury in October and wrist surgery in December. Scoring only seven goals in the 22 games after surgery, it’s fair to wonder if he is still has the power behind his shot that made him such a coveted goal-scorer. Not that players haven’t recovered from injuries before, but the Hurricanes will only have Pacioretty for this season and need an immediate impact out of him. We saw him adjust after the injury, scoring most of his goals from close range or off deflections instead of the perimeter and finding sneaky ways to get himself open. Carolina was a perfect match for him on paper, as they’re a team that dominates the territorial play and needs more finish. Pacioretty should give that to them in theory, but they will need to wait awhile before seeing it in action.

Jordan Staal

Now in his mid-30’s, Staal got off to the slowest start of his career, tallying only two goals and 11 points through the first 41 games. His size and strength kept him high in the lineup, but the lack of offense was a genuine concern for the Canes captain. Then the switch flipped in the second half of the year and the went on a mini tear, scoring 15 goals in his final 37 games and finishing with a respectable scoring line. Staal does so much for the team as their top defensive center that any offense he produces is just gravy, but those who have watched him for awhile knew it was a matter of time before the dam broke for him. His line with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast was very important for the Hurricanes if they needed a good shift after a goal or when they got hemmed in. The approach was very basic, get below the goal line and go to work, but it was the team’s identity and eventually Staal got some reward for it. Niederreiter leaving might be a big hit to Staal’s goal-production, but the Hurricanes have enough worker bee type wingers that they should be able to find a good running mate for him this year. Hopefully the offense will be a little more consistent.

Seth Jarvis

It was impressive how seamlessly Jarvis fit into the Hurricanes lineup. Not seeing his first game until Halloween, it was obvious from the get-go that he wasn’t going back to the WHL anytime soon. His speed and insane lower body strength made him a fit on the fourth line and he quickly earned a promotion to the top-six. Fitting in as a player who could bring a high-motor element to Aho’s line for quick-strike offense and as a grinder who could get Aho or Svechnikov the puck from below the dots or vice versa. Being a right-shot wing also helped, as it was easier for him to receive some of Aho’s passes in the slot or off give-and-go’s in the neutral zone. Combine that with the pace he plays at and Jarvis was exactly what the team needed heading into last year and someone they could heavily rely on for offense next year. Only 20 years old, he should be trending upwards but there is going to be more pressure on him to produce with some of the roster departures. Jarvis was arguably the team’s best forward in the playoffs, which is a great sign if the Hurricanes want him to be a core player going forward.

Martin Necas

One year ago, Necas looked like an emerging star. The way he processed the game was so different from everyone else on the team, creating offense out of nothing and pulling the Hurricanes back into games on his own. He had his flaws, but they were the kind you live with because he looked like the type of player who could shift the momentum on a dime. Unfortunately, this didn’t carry over. Offense didn’t come as easy for Necas and he found himself trying to do too much on his own, leading to a lot of missed plays and prolonged scoring droughts. The talent is still there, he is one of the Hurricanes best players at setting up shots, but he had trouble when no passing options were available, and he had to take the puck to the net on his own. He would circle the net or get caught in between passing and shooting, leading to missed chances or him shoveling the puck on goal from an awkward angle. Quicker decision making is required with the Hurricanes, but the cerebral nature of Necas’ game is what makes him a special talent and you don’t want to take that away. He had a good season and was a big part of Carolina’s aggressive penalty kill, but there is another level to his game that Carolina will have to unlock.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Carolina’s decision to offer-sheet Kotkaniemi and treat him as if he’s an older prospect was a little confusing. The 22-year-old spent most of last season on the fourth line and only saw an increased role in short spells. The decision to sign him to a seven-year contract is a steep bet, making him part of the team’s core going forward. His first year with Carolina was solid, but there is always an asterisk when you’re projecting someone who played fourth line minutes to jump into a 2C role. He played good minutes in Montreal, but some similar issues remain. He has one of the best shots on the team, but it takes an extra second for him to release it and will opt for the simple play more times than not. Most of his offense was off long cycles where the team was already setup in the offensive zone and while he made some progress there, it was against a lot of depth defensemen and checking line players. Some players can make the jump to the top-six seamlessly and Kotkaniemi will be setup to succeed with Carolina’s great depth on the wings. It might work in his favor, as he will have some more space to create instead of having to constantly fight off checks on the fourth line. He will also be tasked with carrying more of a workload in transition and the defensive zone, something he can do but didn’t have much of a role in last year. The former third overall pick might not live up to his draft status, but he has shown signs of becoming a good middle-six center, which is what the Hurricanes are paying him to be, if he can make the ice-time jump.

Jesper Fast

Someone is going to have to pick up the slack with Carolina’s offense and a dark horse candidate for that is Jesper Fast. He was quietly one of the team’s better 5v5 goal-scorers last year, recording a career-high 14 goals most of which coming while standing in front of the net after Nino Niederreiter or Jordan Staal won a puck below the goal-line. A responsible defensive forward, Fast has shown some offensive flashes in the past and the defined role on Jordan Staal’s line worked to his favor. Most of his game is based on positioning and making quick plays to help with breakouts and being a disruptive force on the forecheck, but he got to show some of his skill last year. Having some offensive pop on top of posting some of the best underlying numbers on the team is never a bad thing. It’s tough to say if his goal-scoring ways will continue last year, as he lost a key linemate in Nino Niederreiter. That said, he should continue to be a key part of the Canes third line. He could see some second power play unit time, as he played the netfront role in the past.

DEFENSE

Brent Burns

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Brent Burns, so the two questions heading into this year are how much he will play and how will switching teams effect his point total. The big change with him over the last two years is that his shot volume totals have plummeted, which in turn hurt his counting stats. Burns production has declined along with the Sharks play and now he’s going to a team notorious for spending most of the game in the offensive zone. Logic suggests that Burns will see a bit of a return to form, as his puck skills haven’t declined as much as his point totals suggest. Burns was still one of the better blue-liners in the league at setting up scoring chances, creating offense off the rush and exiting the zone. The only thing that has been missing is the shot volume and ability to command the offensive zone like he did in the Sharks heyday. Will that change with the Hurricanes and their strong forecheck, or will it be similar to last year with the Sharks as the Canes have seen some of their forward talent leave via free agency? It will be interesting to see this work in action. He brings a similar profile to what they had in both Dougie Hamilton and Tony DeAngelo but is much older with two careers worth of ice-time on his tires.

Jaccob Slavin

The modern-day shutdown defenseman, Slavin is the type of player who could put up zero points and still have a positive impact. There are few players in the league who are as good at skating forwards into a corner or using their stick as him. He also covers a ton of ground in the defensive zone, disrupting most plays before they even start and quickly getting the puck out of the zone to relieve pressure. He was tasked with more of an offensive role last year with Tony DeAngelo as his partner. He ended up having a career year in points and showed some real upside there, especially with shooting for deflections and making soft passes to the front of the net from the left point. It was the most growth he has shown in that part of the game, at least at even strength, running the power play is something he hasn’t quite figured out yet. While he didn’t play pure shutdown minutes, Slavin still played 23-25 minutes a night and was the Jenga piece for Carolina’s blue line. If he had an off night, it was usually bad news for the Canes. Those were few and far between though as he had a stellar season and adapted to playing in more offensive situations. This should continue next year with the roving Brent Burns projected to be his defense partner.

Brett Pesce

Looking at Brett Pesce’s profile and watching him play is quite the contrast. He’s tall but not towering, has a good frame but isn’t physically intimidating. His shot isn’t very powerful, a great skater with good edges but not a burner like Cale Makar. He looks like someone who would top out as a depth defenseman at the NHL level, but he is one of the better shutdown defenders in the league. Playing a pure defensive role with Brady Skjei for the past two years has been up-and-down for him. He can still break-up plays at the blue line better than most and can skate his way out of pressure. His defensive impact, however, usually varies depending on who he is paired with. A predictable partner like Slavin or Calvin de Haan will yield good results for him while a more aggressive, roaming partner like Skjei or Edmundson will leave him covering for more mistakes and sometimes it’s too much for him to handle. This was the case for him at times last year, but history suggests that he will rebound and return to the reliable defender he was for most of his career. A down year for him is a good year for most in the league.

Brady Skjei

2021-22 was a revival for Skjei and it came out of nowhere. After seemingly topping out as a low-end 4/5 defenseman, he had a career year offensively and posted some of his best underlying stats since his rookie year. All awhile playing a tough shutdown role with Brett Pesce. The Hurricanes have done well to make the game easier for Skjei, giving him the greenlight to join the rush and allowing him to stand up at the line with Pesce or a forward backing him up if he gets beat. His size and skating were always going to be his calling cards and translating it to game situations was the challenge. This started to come around last year, he had a career season offensively and looked like a threat to score instead of someone who would spam low percentage shots from the boards. The high-risk nature of his game is still an issue, but it's something the Hurricanes are more content with now that they’re seeing the rewards. It gives the Hurricanes second pair a different look even though their primary job is shutting down top lines. Skjei’s aggressive nature and playing style was a big part of that with how often he would pinch to keep pucks in, push for offense or quickly re-enter the zone after a long shift. He had 39 points with zero power play time last year, so he could challenge for a spot on the second unit if Slavin continues to struggle there.

GOALTENDING

Frederik Andersen

When Carolina opted to jettison all their existing goaltenders in favor of a pair of over-thirty veterans with lengthy injury histories, it seemed hard to put big money down in favor of a successful Hurricanes year; after all, it would only take one ill-timed pair of injuries to both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the team to find themselves out in the wind with the playoffs on the line.

Luckily, the gamble worked out in their favor – and while neither vet had been willing to sign on a year-by-year basis, Andersen’s year was impressive enough to feel comfortable with him coming back for yet another season with the Metropolitan Division club. At 32-years old, Andersen .922 unadjusted save percentage and four shutouts were good for a whopping 35 team wins and the goaltender’s best statistical season since his rookie year. Very few goaltenders are able to do a complete one-eighty after struggling as hard as Andersen did during his final year in Toronto – but whatever Carolina did clearly worked. After a year of watching the Danish netminder struggle to accurately read shot rebounds and recover comfortably in order to face second shots, Andersen’s sharp instincts looked good as new during the 2021-22 season. He didn’t change much about his core style – he remained a goaltender who seems most comfortable pushing forward into shots and holding down the fort with clear sightlines instead of asking his defense to crowd his crease, with a preference for cutting down open space instead of waiting out shooters. But instead of fighting against the defensive system in front of him, which he seemed to be almost forced to do during his tenure in Toronto, he was able to play to his strengths with the Hurricanes and hit his stride. His only negative was the lack of consistency he posted; despite having some of the league’s best numbers, his quality start percentage sat just a hair above the average. But as long as he’s able to truly split the net with tandem partner Antti Raanta, which should prevent the more-consistent Finnish veteran from suffering more injuries, that shouldn’t be a big enough problem to hurt the Hurricanes in their push to hit the Stanley Cup Final.

Projected starts: 45-50

Antti Raanta

After nearly a decade in the NHL, it seems fair to say that Antti Raanta is a known entity in net. The 33-year-old former Blackhawks, Rangers, and Coyotes backstop remains one of the NHL’s most reliable goaltenders from a performance standpoint – so long as you don’t need him to hold down the fort entirely on his own for lengthy periods of time. Even when playing a true tandem with Frederik Andersen, Raanta suffered a slew of minor injuries that kept him out of games and left Andersen to man the pipes without him.

As Carolina seems to have figured out, though, Raanta still provides incredible value in a tandem situation. He didn’t put up quite the same level save percentage that Andersen did during his 28 regular season games with the Hurricanes, but that was more a byproduct of his consistency than it was a problem with his quality of performance. His quality start percentage matched Andersen’s nearly perfectly, and he only posted one start that classified as a Really Bad Start using Rob Vollman’s metric (which calculates the percentage of starts a goaltender actively inhibits his team’s chance of winning a game, recording a save percentage below 85%). In comparison, Andersen – who played in just under double the number of games Raanta did – posted five Really Bad Starts; while Andersen clearly posted higher highs than Raanta, he also posted lower lows. That’s a benefit of the structured, utilitarian style that Raanta plays; despite being one of the smallest goaltenders in the league, he keeps his skates within the blue paint and relies on patience to goad shooters into showing their hands before he drops to his knees. He lacks some of the high-end speed and lower body power that would likely push him into elite territory, particularly now that he’s so prone to lower-body bumps and bruises. But despite a game that doesn’t particularly challenge the Andrei Vasilevskiys and Igor Shesterkins of the league, his baseline remains incredibly strong – and best of all, he knows exactly what he is and what he’s capable of. Raanta’s spatial awareness sits among some of the best in the league, which gives him enough of an advantage to allow him to slow his game down a bit to ease up on his hips and groin. He may not be a sure bet as a reliable split-share netminder anymore, but he’s unlikely to hurt Carolina much, either.

Projected starts: 35-40

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: CAROLINA VS. BOSTON – Goaltending key in defensive battle that should be a close, grinding series

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 14:04:12 +0000

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 10: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) looks in front during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Carolina Hurricanes on February 10, 2022 at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

CAROLINA vs. BOSTON

The Hurricanes won the Metropolitan Division, and they still have to face a quality Bruins team that has had some inconsistency throughout the season but finished strong and should be as lively as any underdog in the first round.

This series figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle, a style that both teams have used to thrive down the stretch.

Forwards

Although the Carolina Hurricanes have a solid group of forwards, they do not have the most explosive bunch. Sebastian Aho, Evgeny Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen are highly skilled, productive players and are reliable leaders. The supporting cast has quality pieces but has limits on its offensive upside. Vincent Trocheck and Jordan Staal are strong middle-six pivots and wingers are all capable contributors. Carolina’s depth is a strong point, as Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter, Seth Jarvis, and Jesper Fast Max Domi can offer more than standard fourth-line contributions. The takeaway is that the Hurricanes are not positioned to run up the score; it is more like score enough and control play, so the opposition does not have the chance to get back into the game.

The Bruins seem to have found a few answers down the stretch, moving Jake DeBrusk to the right wing alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron on the top line. That trio has controlled 68.6% of 5v5 shot attempts and 72.1% of expected goals, which is utterly ridiculous. Bergeron has been outstanding all season, no matter who is on his wing, and he will be vital to any Boston success in the series. Another spot that has been filled for the Bruins is that of second line center, with Erik Haula ending up between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak. Moving Pastrnak off the top line has provided more balance for the Bruins but the challenge will be whether they can get reliable enough performance from third and fourth lines that are not so impressive.

Defense

Carolina is such a well-rounded team that virtually every defense pairing they roll out ends up on the right side of the puck possession ledger. Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce have been recognized as high-quality defenders, after spending the early years of their careers described as underrated, and they each anchor a pairing; Slavin with Tony DeAngelo and Pesce with Brady Skjei. Add in Ian Cole and Ethan Bear on the third pair and it is no coincidence that the Hurricanes allowed the lowest rate of shot attempts during 5v5 play and lowest goals against per 60 minutes in all situations this season.

Boston’s defensive record is impressive, too. Since the trade deadline, when they acquired Hampus Lindholm from the Anaheim Ducks, the Bruins rank second in the league in rate of 5v5 shot attempts against, expected goals against, and goals against per 60 minutes. Charlie McAvoy has emerged as one of the premier defensemen in the game and beyond McAvoy and Lindholm there is a mix of puck movers, like Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly, as well as big bodies, like Brandon Carlo and Derek Forbort. Considering how effective the Bruins and Hurricanes have been when it comes to shot suppression, this is effectively a battle between shutdown teams.

Goaltending

Frederik Andersen had a wonderful bounce-back season in his first year with the Hurricanes, but a late-season lower-body injury puts his status in doubt for at least the start of the series. Antti Raanta has been a quality backup and should be a competent replacement, but questionable goaltending does have the potential to be a problem for Carolina.

Boston has been running the tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman and both have been above league average this season but neither has been a star performer. That could be part of the reason to expect that both Boston goalies will have a chance to play against Carolina.

Special Teams

Boston’s power play was around league average over the entire season but that includes a 0-for-40 stretch late in the season. They have the personnel – Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Hall, and McAvoy – that should be better than merely average.

The Hurricanes have been better than average with the man advantage so that might offer a slight edge on the Bruins.

While the Bruins have been better than average on the penalty kill, allowing 6.33 goals per 60 minutes of 4v5 play, the Hurricanes have the best penalty killing in the league, allowing the lowest rates of shot attempts, shots, goals, and expected goals during 4v5 play and by a substantial margin in each category. Given the importance of power plays in a short series, Carolina’s penalty killing could be a difference maker.

Conclusion

The Hurricanes play a sound structural game and while they might not put up eye-popping offensive numbers, their ability to shutdown the opposition will present a challenge for the Bruins. Goaltending is a concern in any playoff series, especially if a team is missing its starter, and that might be the path that leads to a Bruins upset, but this series should be a grind, a close and competitive grind. Hurricanes in 7.

NHL PLAYOFFS: PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES – 10 Fantasy Tips to Win – Players to Target

Scott Cullen — Fri, 29 Apr 2022 14:52:43 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 26: Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) celebrates the last home regular season win with Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Columbus Blue Jackets on April 26, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES

As a fascinating and surprisingly high-scoring NHL regular season comes to a close, it is time to look to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Playoffs mean playoff pools and after many years of experience in this process, there are plenty of lessons that have been learned.

Here are 10 tips to keep in mind when making picks for your playoff pool:

#1 TRACK THE PATH TO THE CUP

While standard hockey pool procedure would suggest focusing on the teams that you expect to be among the final four remaining, because playing more games naturally offers more opportunity to accumulate points, some teams have what is perceived to be an easier path. Consider the New York Rangers, who will have home-ice advantage in the first round against either the Pittsburgh Penguins or Washington Capitals and may not have to run through the gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division until the third round of the playoffs.

#2 DIVERSIFY YOUR APPROACH

It is possible to win a pool by loading up on one team and getting as many players as you can from the eventual Stanley Cup champ, but that’s a risky game with little margin for error. There were nine Tampa Bay Lightning players that recorded double digit point totals on the way to last season’s Stanley Cup, and one of them was defenseman Erik Cernak. Once you factor in how unlikely it is to secure all of the top players from one of the favorites, it starts to make more sense to spread the love and target a few top players for your projected final four teams.

#3 STACKING STILL WORKS

While spreading your picks among several teams is the most sensible approach, there is still some sweet value to be found in doubling up with players that are on the same line. Picking Evander Kane to go with Connor McDavid or Zach Hyman to pair with Leon Draisaitl, there is potential to hit big if their line has postseason success.

#4 DON’T PLAY BOTH SIDES IN THE FIRST ROUND

One of the cardinal rules of playoff pools is to avoid players that play each other in the first round, simply because it is going to be suboptimal to guarantee the removal of players that can count towards your total. It can be hard enough to get your players to advance, there is no need to make the process even more challenging by forcing a player out in the first round.

#5 POWER PLAY DEFENSEMEN HAVE MORE VALUE

In the small sample of the playoffs, power plays tend to have outsized value. A power play that runs hot or cold can easily swing the difference in a series, and often the defenseman that quarterbacks the first power play unit can pile up points. Since 2009-2010, a span covering 11 playoff years, there have been 75 defensemen to record at least 10 points in a playoff year.

That said, only seven of last year’s Top 50 playoff scorers were defensemen, so it is not like productive forwards should be ignored just for the sake of adding a power play defenseman but be aware that the power play quarterback has fantasy appeal.

#6 GOALIES CAN’T WIN, UNTIL THEY CAN

Reputation follows a lot of players and leads to decisions based on who can and can’t win a Stanley Cup. It has happened with forwards like Alex Ovechkin and Phil Kessel, but that rep follows goalies, too and, aside from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has won back-to-back Stanley Cups, there is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to playoff goaltending.

Just look at the goaltenders for the top teams in the regular season this year. Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA), Darcy Kuemper (COL), Frederik Andersen (CAR), Jack Campbell (TOR), Jacob Markstrom (CGY), Marc-Andre Fleury (MIN), Jordan Binnington (STL), Igor Shesterkin (NYR) and then Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman (BOS). There are a lot of goaltenders that have not yet shown that they can win in the playoffs and even some of those that have come with some question marks. The thing is, goaltending matters a lot, but it is difficult to predict in most cases, so keep that in mind when forecasting which teams are going to go all the way.

#7 CONSIDER PLAYERS WITH LATE SEASON MOMENTUM

Sometimes a player’s total points do not accurately reflect their current level of performance. Here are some players that have finished the regular season on a roll.

Lightning C/RW Steven Stamkos

The all-time leading scorer in Tampa Bay Lightning history is hardly flying under the radar, but Stamkos has produced 23 points (7 G, 16 A) in the past eight games, recording at least two points in all eight of those contests.

Blues C Robert Thomas

This has been a breakthrough season for the fourth-year center, but Thomas’ finish to the campaign has been something to behold, as he has put up 35 points (12 G, 23 A) in his past 22 games.

Wild RW Kevin Fiala

The talented Wild winger put it all together down the stretch, tallying 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in his past 12 games, giving the Wild better scoring balance in the process.

Predators C Matt Duchene

The 31-year-old pivot bounced back from a down year with the best season of his career in 2021-2022 and he finished strong, with 39 points (20 G, 19 A) in the past 28 games.

Rangers C Andrew Copp

An outstanding trade deadline pickup, Copp has scored 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 16 games with the Blueshirts, though he has suffered a late-season injury.

Flames D Noah Hanifin

Several Flames have enjoyed breakout seasons, but Hanifin has finished with an added flourish, scoring 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in his past 18 games.

Bruins C Erik Haula

Boston was supposed to be on the hunt for someone to fill David Krejci’s spot as the second line center and it turns out that Haula has been the answer, fitting between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and scoring 19 points (10 G, 9 A) in his past 19 games.

Avalanche RW Valeri Nichushkin

An elite checking winger who has broken through offensively, Nichushkin has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in his past 20 games, which is prime secondary scoring.

Kings LW Adrian Kempe

The speedy winger has buried a career-high 34 goals and has been dangerous down the stretch, scoring 17 points (9 G, 8 A) in his past 17 games.

#8 NATURALLY, CREDIT THOSE WITH PREVIOUS PLAYOFF SUCCESS

10 active players that are going to be in this year’s playoffs and have at least a point per game in the postseason since 2009-2010:

Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon

69 points (28 G, 41 A) in 50 games

Oilers C Leon Draisaitl

27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 21 games

Avalanche RW Mikko Rantanen

52 points (18 G, 34 A) in 43 games

Lightning RW Nikita Kucherov

127 points (44 G, 83 A) in 113 games

Lightning C Brayden Point

73 points (36 G, 37 A) in 67 games

Bruins RW David Pastrnak

68 points (27 G, 41 A) in 63 games

Oilers C Connor McDavid

22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 21 games

Hurricanes C Sebastian Aho

35 points (14 G, 21 A) in 24 games

Penguins C Sidney Crosby

128 points (45 G, 83 A) in 125 games

Panthers LW Jonathan Huberdeau

16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 16 games

And 10 more that are close:

Penguins LW Jake Guentzel

48 points (26 G, 22 A) in 51 games

Rangers LW Artemi Panarin

28 points (10 G, 18 A) in 30 games

Avalanche LW Gabriel Landeskog

45 points (16 G, 29 A) in 49 games

Avalanche D Cale Makar

31 points (7 G, 24 A) in 35 games

Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin

105 points (56 G, 49 A) in 120 games

Panthers C Aleksander Barkov

14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 games

Panthers RW Claude Giroux

68 points (23 G, 45 A) in 79 games

Blues C Ryan O’Reilly

44 points (15 G, 29 A) in 52 games

Kings C Anze Kopitar

66 points (21 G, 45 A) in 79 games

Predators C Ryan Johansen

52 points (19 G, 33 A) in 63 games

#9 DIG DEEPER FOR VALUE

Name recognition drives a lot of fantasy value. The early picks in any pool are going to be players that are well known, but there is value to be found among players who do not necessarily have established reputations as a first-rate scorer. Here are 10 value candidates for playoff pools:

Panthers LW Mason Marchment

The power forward plays in a supporting role for the highest scoring team in the league and he has 36 points (16 G, 20 A) in the past 37 games.

Avalanche LW Artturi Lehkonen

Added from Montreal at the trade deadline, the reliable checking winger has found a touch around the net, putting up eight points (5 G, 3 A) in the past nine games.

Hurricanes RW Seth Jarvis

The rookie winger has produced 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in his past 22 games, including a point in each of his past seven games.

Hurricanes C Jordan Staal

The veteran checking center was an offensive black hole at times during the season but rounded into form late in the season, contributing 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in his past 11 games.

Kings C Phillip Danault

One of the most valuable free agent signings from last summer, the Kings get outstanding two-way play out of Danault and his improved offensive game only enhances his overall value. He has 16 points (10 G, 6 A) in his past 19 games.

Bruins RW Jake DeBrusk

Nothing like getting a chance to skate on the wing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, and that spot has worked wonders for DeBrusk, who has 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in his past 17 games.

Wild C Frederick Gaudreau

Has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past 10 games to earn a career-high 44 points this season and is the unheralded pivot between red-hot Kevin Fiala and star rookie Matt Boldy.

Avalanche D Bowen Byram

He does not play a huge role due to the depth of talent on the Colorado blueline, and the fact that he missed a bunch of time recovering from a concussion, but the 20-year-old is super skilled and still put up six assists in 12 games after returning to the lineup. If the Avs go on a run, Byram could find his way to a productive postseason.

Capitals RW Anthony Mantha

An injury-shortened season for the towering winger, but he does have nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his past 10 games and might need to take on a bigger role for Washington if Ovechkin is not healthy for the start of the playoffs.

#10 BEWARE THE INJURED

Players are going to play through injuries in the Stanley Cup Playoffs but exercise caution when it comes to players that are already known to be hurt heading towards the postseason. If there is a risk of the player missing games right from the start, then that means there is a risk that they don’t contribute at all to your point total. Injuries could create some sleeper potential if the replacements get a chance to play prime minutes.

Some notable injuries to monitor heading into the playoffs:

Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin, upper body

Predators G Juuse Saros, lower body

Hurricanes G Frederik Andersen, lower body

Penguins G Tristan Jarry, lower body

Panthers D Aaron Ekblad, lower body

Rangers LW Artemi Panarin, upper body

Avalanche LW Gabriel Landeskog, knee

Blues LW David Perron, lower body

Blues C Brayden Schenn, upper body

Wild D Jared Spurgeon, upper body

Oilers D Darnell Nurse, lower body

Wild RW Mats Zuccarello, lower body

Rangers C Andrew Copp, lower body

Maple Leafs LW Michael Bunting, undisclosed

Wild D Matt Dumba, upper body

Panthers C Anton Lundell, upper body

Penguins LW Jason Zucker, lower body

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CENTRAL DIVISION PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators – Preds Late Surge May Not be Enough for Solid Canes

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 14 May 2021 17:41:54 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - JANUARY 18: Nashville Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm (14), of Sweden, and Carolina Hurricanes right wing Martin Necas (88) pursue the deflected puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Carolina Hurricanes, held on January 18, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

Out of all the first round matchups, this is probably the most lopsided. Carolina has been one of the best teams in the league by most statistical categories this year and finished just a couple points off Colorado for the Presidents Trophy. Nashville needed a miraculous 18-6-1 run in their final 25 games to even make the playoffs, finishing with a goal differential of plus-2. On the surface, this looks like a quick series, but we know there is more than meets the eye when it comes to playoff matchups.

As someone who has followed both teams for awhile, I always saw Carolina trying to build in a similar path to Nashville. The Preds strong defense was their foundation and the Hurricanes have been trying to build a similar group through the draft for years. Two of their late round picks in Brett Pesce & Jaccob Slavin ended up being their cornerstone pieces along with Dougie Hamilton, who is the engine of their blue line. Carolina has a defense corps that rivals Nashville’s in their heyday and it’s exciting that these two are about to play their first playoff series against each other, especially since most of the pieces from Nashville’s old “big four” are still there.

Speaking of defense, this might end up being a tighter series than most think. Carolina is the higher scoring team & are going to get plenty of chances but finishing them is another story. The Hurricanes have used their top ranked power play as a lifeline all season and part of that is because their five-on-five goal-scoring is only in the middle of the pack. They finish their chances at about the same rate as Nashville (2.32 five-on-five goals per 60 minutes compared to 2.31 for Nashville). The Preds don’t create chances as the same rate that Carolina does, so they’re going to spend some time in their own zone. That said, this is something most teams who have played Carolina before are used to. They know they’re going to get pinned in for stretches of the game & will have to weather a storm. With how dialed in Saros was during the stretch run, there is a greater than zero percent chance of these games turning into 1-1 affairs with the Hurricanes winning the shot battle by 20. It wouldn’t be the first time something like that has happened in the playoffs.

Canes Cohesion and Chemistry on Power Play on Full Display

If the Hurricanes make this a quick series, it’s going to be because of their power play, which was the best in the league during the regular season. It’s easy to say “stay out of the box,” but if there’s anything less predictable than a hockey game, it’s how its officiated so the Canes power play is definitely going to get their looks. What makes it so good? It’s all about striking early and keeping the opponent guessing.

There are a few things that stick out here. First is that they have three players tied for the team lead in power play goals & neither of them are their two main shooting options (Andrei Svechnikov in the left circle & Hamilton at the center point). Vincent Trocheck has been excellent as both a netfront option & a bumper in the slot, stealing a few goals from Dougie Hamilton with crafty deflections. Jordan Staal, more of a “true” netfront guy, has made his living jumping on rebounds and second chances while Sebastian Aho is their Swiss Army Knife, not really staying in one spot & moving around to give the Hurricanes a few different looks to their power play. They’ve made a habit out of striking early in power plays off faceoff wins by Staal & even then they’ve given teams some different looks there.

Trocheck with a power play goal from his office. Almost the exact same play/spot he scored from a few weeks ago against Florida. pic.twitter.com/UyzsmPxEdq

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) March 7, 2021

The cohesion & team chemistry has been on full display with the Canes power play this year & while there is a huge dropoff on the second unit, Nashville needs to be careful about going to this well too often. Nashville runs a fairly aggressive penalty kill with Colton Sissons & Erik Haula pushing for shorthanded chances, so that’s one thing they can do to even the terms here, but it’s still a tough ask.

Hamilton Head to Head with Josi

Another interesting dynamic to this series is you have Dougie Hamilton and Roman Josi going head-to-head. These are two of the top offensive defensemen in the league who go about their business in completely different ways. Both are two of the highest producing defensemen off the rush in the league, but the difference is that Josi leads the rush while Hamilton allows his team’s forwards to do most of the work. Carolina is known for having an active defense, but it’s rare for them to lead the rush, especially Hamilton. That doesn’t mean they aren’t involved, though.

Josi is probably the most unique defenseman in the league when it comes to sparking Nashville’s transition game, because he does it all by himself. Hamilton contributes to the rush in a very similar way to Josi, but he does it more through passes and joining the play as a trailer. The Preds aren’t completely devoid of talent up front, so I always wondered if it was necessary for Josi to lead the rush as often as he does, but it’s something that has carried over through multiple coaches in Nashville. Duchene, despite his dreadful statline, can still create off the rush and so can Filip Forsberg. Would it be in Nashville’s best interest go get them more touches in a game & have Josi act as more of a trailer? It’s worth asking. Of course, getting into a firewagon game with the Hurricanes could be asking for trouble because they are one of the top teams in the league at making the most out of their rush opportunities.

Part of this is talent and the other is partially due to how good Alex Nedeljkovic & Petr Mrazek have been for them in goal. Rush looks can be generated through control breakouts & sound defensive plays, but how often do you see a great save at one end turn into a goal the other way? Carolina has gotten plenty of that this year, boasting the third highest five-on-five save percentage in the NHL. Juuse Saros has been mostly flawless during this stretch run, but one of his few bad games came against Carolina in mid-April where he gave up four goals on 29 shots. All four of them came off the rush or a neutral zone turnover where Carolina created an odd-man rush or had a clear path to the net.

The extra player or space to make a move or two makes all the difference in the world against a hot goalie.

Nashville has likely gone over this ad nauseam and will likely try to play a mistake free game because that’s where they got burned in the season series. They can probably make this a close series, but it’s tough to see where the goals are coming from unless Forsberg or Arvidsson regains their form. The best line they’ve had recently is the “Herd Line,” a checking line that has turned some solid forechecking & physical play into territorial & xG dominance for them over the past month. Is that enough to balance out what the Hurricanes will do? It’s really tough to see that happening, especially if the Preds get into penalty trouble.

Carolina-Nashville

Carolina in 5

Fantasy Hunches

Nedeljkovic

Trocheck

Hamilton

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Factors that make top value fantasy picks – the unexpected and perhaps should have been expected

Scott Cullen — Wed, 12 May 2021 21:31:51 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, looking at the factors that made the top value picks in fantasy this season. Some of these seasons were totally unexpected. Maybe a few of them we could have seen coming.

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 13: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) controls the puck in the second period during the regular season NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs on February 13, 2020 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

NASHVILLE, TN - MARCH 30: Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars, held on March 30, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Even if their team’s season ended up disappointing, the Dallas Stars were a source of fantasy value.

Joe Pavelski had 31 points in 67 games for the Stars last season, his first in Dallas, but he did rebound with 13 goals and 19 points in 27 playoff games last season. Even so, expectations had to be modest for a 36-year-old coming off his worst regular season. But the Stars needed Pavelski’s production. Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov both missed most of the season and that contributed to Pavelski playing more than 19 minutes per game this season after playing 16:56 last season. Pavelski ended up scoring 20 more points, including 10 more power play points, this season than he did last season.

One of the biggest breakout, ahem, stars in the game this season was Roope Hintz, who was a legitimate candidate for a breakthrough season but he also had two goals in 25 playoff games last season so it was hardly a lock. Hintz was playing through a groin injury for most of the season, and missed some games as a result, but he still produced 43 points in 41 games. Not many players see their ice time jump like Hintz, gaining 3:29 per game compared to last season, but his increased production was also tied to a spike in on-ice shooting percentage, from 8.3% to 11.3% year over year.

How are you as a fantasy manager supposed to know about a player’s role when the very team that he plays for doesn’t really know either? Jason Robertson was not in the Dallas lineup at the start of the season and played sparingly in a couple of games before sitting out for another 10 days before playing his third game. He started to score which earned him more playing time but his shot rates were still relatively modest. Robertson had 32 shots on goal in his first 20 games but has 95 shots on goal in 31 games since.

#2 Goaltending is difficult to project for anyone and that includes fantasy managers. Coming into the season, a consensus Top 10 of goaltenders would have likely included Carter Hart, Ilya Samsonov, Jordan Binnington, Carey Price, and Frederik Andersen. You know who wasn’t getting love in the preseason? Chris Driedger, Alex Nedeljkovic, Mike Smith, and Jack Campbell. Sometimes, for fantasy success, goaltending can be saved by the right guy at the right time from the waiver wire, which is also a reasonable argument against taking a goaltender too early in your draft.

#3 Those weren’t the only unheralded goaltenders to have fantasy value either. When Cam Talbot was hurt for Minnesota, Kaapo Kahkonen was a major factor. Vitek Vanecek played much more than anyone could have expected for Washington and Jake Oettinger ended up in a significant role with Dallas. For a good portion of the season, Kevin Lankinen was a surprise hit in Chicago before fading down the stretch.

#4 One of my preseason sleeper favorites was Carolina center Vincent Trocheck. His production had understandably tailed off since suffering a broken leg in November of 2018, and he only had four points in 15 (regular season plus playoff) games for the Hurricanes after he was acquired from Florida last season. This season, Trocheck was healthy from the start, played on the first power play unit and, despite playing 47 games, recorded more than 100 hits for the sixth consecutive season. There were no guarantees on Trocheck coming into the season but was well worth a mid-round pick because his power play production and hit totals gave him potential high-end fantasy value.

#5 Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun led all blueliners with 18 goals and ranked second with 176 shots on goal, behind only Dougie Hamilton, who had 180 shots on goal. He was a late-round pick in most leagues if not waiver wire fodder.

#6 While the Vegas Golden Knights have star players that can make a major impact, some of the best fantasy value on the team came in the bargain bin. Alec Martinez was in a league of his own as a shot blocker, putting up 3.17 blocks per game. Chicago’s Connor Murphy ranked second at 2.46 blocked shots per game.

There may have been some expectation that Cody Glass would knock Chandler Stephenson out of the top line center role at some point this season but it did not happen. Stephenson maintained his role, playing between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, and has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) in the past 17 games with none of those points coming on the power play.

#7 While it is fair to question the contributions of Edmonton’s supporting cast of forwards, as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were the only three with more than 25 points, the Oilers did offer big value on the blueline.

Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie were the most common teammates for Connor McDavid and Barrie ranks second among defensemen with 46 points while Nurse ranks 12^th with 36 points.

The other value to be found on the Edmonton defense was with Adam Larsson, who was one of four defensemen to average better than two hits and two blocked shots per game. Connor Murphy, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard were the others. Nikita Zaitsev was a rounding error away on blocked shots from joining that group.

#8 The calls for New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox to win the Norris Trophy got a little quieter when he didn’t register a point in the last six games of the season but he still leads defensemen with 47 points and while there may have been legitimate reason to be optimistic about Fox’s second NHL campaign, it’s not exactly standard fare for anyone to have their ice time increase by 5:48 per game.

#9 While Nikolaj Ehlers took a notable step forward for the Winnipeg Jets the big value to be gained for fantasy managers was getting Andrew Copp. Coming into the season, Copp had a career high of 28 points but then produced 39 points this season, despite fading down the stretch. His lineup versatility saw him move around a lot and that included a role on the power play and Copp scored 12 of his 39 points with the man advantage.

#10 The Pittsburgh Penguins were a source of surprising production from a couple of forwards. In the wake of Evgeni Malkin’s injury, Jared McCann stepped into the second-line center role and from the beginning of March through the end of the season, McCann scored 26 points and had 74 shots on goal in 30 games.

#11 Pittsburgh’s big trade deadline acquisition was Jeff Carter, who has scored nine goals in 14 games with the Penguins after scoring eight goals in 40 games for the Los Angeles Kings. Carter is one of a dozen players with nine or more goals since the trade deadline.

#12 The three players tied with the most goals since the trade deadline, with 11, were all good sources of fantasy value this season. Minnesota Wild rookie Kirill Kaprizov came into the league with expectations and started scoring immediately but he became a high-end shot generator, too, putting up 3.4 shots per game in his past 37 games after just 1.6 shots per game in the first 17 games of his career. Chicago winger Alex DeBrincat had a down season in 2019-2020, scoring 18 goals after taylling a career-high 41 goals the season before. DeBrincat’s shot rate stayed consistent but this season scored on 20.6% of his shots after scoring on 8.7% of his shots in 2019-2020. 32 goals in 52 games this season is the best per-game goal rate of DeBrincat’s career. The third player with 11 goals since the trade deadline is Buffalo Sabres forward Sam Reinhart, who had 11 goals on 46 shots in 14 games down the stretch to end up tying his career high of 25 goals. As with anything good for the Sabres this season, it mostly got lost under the mountain of bad.

#13 I wrote quite a bit about the Florida Panthers a few weeks ago but they were a source of fantastic fantasy value this season. MacKenzie Weegar’s ice time increased by a couple of minutes per game and he did generate more hits than in previous seasons but he doubled his previous career-high of 18 points, and finished with a plus-29 in 54 games.

#14 Carter Verhaeghe was one of the best stories of the season, a fourth liner who won the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay in 2019-2020, Verhaeghe was installed on Florida’s top line and he produced 2.56 points/60 at even strength, more than Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen and many others. Should you have known that Verhaeghe could be this productive? Probably not because when an unproven player gets a chance to play on the first line, there are many instances where it is short-lived and quickly forgotten. Such is the nature of the sport, where a coach can change his mind and alter a player’s fantasy value in dramatic fashion. That didn’t happen with Verhaeghe in Florida.

NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers, held on April 27, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#15 It would be simple to say that Sam Bennett just needed an opportunity to play in a scoring role, that he just wasn’t given the opportunity in his nearly six seasons with the Calgary Flames but he has had instances in which he was been productive, most notably in the playoffs, where he has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 41 shots on goal in 15 games over the past two years. But Bennett also didn’t have a consistent run alongside a player like Jonathan Huberdeau and what stands out about Bennett, in addition to the fact that he scored 15 points in 10 games after the Panthers acquired him at the trade deadline, but he also recorded 39 shots on goal. His 3.90 shots on goal per game since the trade deadline ranks fifth, behind Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Jakob Chychrun, and Evander Kane.

#16 One more Panther of fantasy note is defenseman Radko Gudas, who was fantasy relevant in one specific category, recording 4.63 hits per game, the only defenseman above 4.00 hits per game. Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Tanev, and Tyler Motte were the three forwards that had more than four hits per game. Sabres defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, with 3.93 hits per game, was next highest among defensemen.

#17 The Carolina Hurricanes had a trio of forwards that provided big fantasy value relative to their preseason ranking, too. Martin Necas had a promising rookie season in 2019-2020 but with three more minutes of ice time per game this season, his production picked up and he produced 30 points (12 G, 18 A) in 36 games since the beginning of March.

Veteran center Jordan Staal scored 38 points in 53 games; 0.72 points per game was his highest since 2011-2012 and getting that production, along with 135 hits, put Staal in rare company and, at this stage of his career, Staal did not have such high expectations coming into the season.

#18 There were some positives to take from the Ottawa Senators’ rebuilding effort and the best fantasy value may have come from the likes of Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, who both had the good fortunate to play most of the season with Brady Tkachuk. Batherson had 34 points (17 G, 17 A) with 15 points on the power play and 97 hits in 55 games. Norris also had 34 points (16 G, 18 A) and 14 power play points in 55 games, putting up 13 points in 14 games to finish the season.

#19 Arizona Coyotes winger Conor Garland saw his ice time jump by 3:46 from the 2019-2020 season and he ended up with as many points (39) in 46 games in 2020-2021, as he scored in 68 games the season before.

#20 It’s not always easy to pick out which young forwards are going to get real opportunities to shine with their teams. Ice time matters. Role matters. Jesper Bratt got a late start to the season in New Jersey then contributed 30 points in 46 games, even while scoring on a career-low 6.9% of his shots. Maxime Comtois led the Anaheim Ducks with 33 points and added 93 hits. Nashville’s Eeli Tolvanen needed some injuries to create a chance for him and then he scored 22 points in 40 games, with 12 of those points on the power play.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick