[04-May-2026 15:31:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3 [04-May-2026 15:31:45 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22 [04-May-2026 15:31:46 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50 [04-May-2026 15:31:47 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15 Juraj Slafkovsky – McKeen's Hockey https://www.mckeenshockey.com The Essential Hockey Annual Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:19:58 +0000 en-US hourly 1 NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – PLAYOFF EDITION – Less obvious players to target https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-playoff-edition-obvious-players-target/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-playoff-edition-obvious-players-target/#respond Sat, 18 Apr 2026 14:49:24 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=199487 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – PLAYOFF EDITION – Less obvious players to target

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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a look some less obvious players to target for playoff pools.

1 It’s not like a top scorer on the Stanley Cup favourites is going to be some bargain, but Martin Necas heads into the playoffs on a tear. Necas came out of the Olympic break producing on a higher level, scoring 38 points (16 G, 22 A) with 82 shots on goal in 26 games down the stretch. He’s riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and Arttur Lehkonen on the top line and obviously getting first unit power play time, too. Not a surprise pick, but more a reminder not to overlook how great this player has been this season.

2 While the Los Angeles Kings keep getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs and they have the daunting matchup against the Avalanche in the first round, but Adrian Kempe is a consistent stud in the playoffs. Since the Olympic break, Kempe has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) and 70 shots on goal in 25 games. In the past four playoffs, he has put up 29 points (15 G, 14 A) with 106 shots on goal in 24 games. He has been an elite playoff performer, and it gets overlooked because it only comes in one round bursts.

3 The Minnesota Wild have tried time and again to find a different centre for their top line, but they have returned Ryan Hartman to that role, skating between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and he finished the regular season with 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 39 shots on goal in the last 13 games. That’s already encouraging but consider that he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) and 42 shots on goal in 17 games across his last three playoff appearances. The Wild have a tough matchup against Dallas in the first round, but Hartman is an intriguing player to watch in the postseason.

4 Future Hall of Famers don’t tend to get overlooked, but it’s always worth noting when a player has taken their game to a new level. Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson came back from the Olympics and delivered 31 points (11 G, 20 A) with 68 shots on goal in 24 games. Insane production from a 35-year-old. He has 34 points (4 G, 30 A) with 104 shots on goal in 38 games across his last two playoff appearances, though this will be his first postseason appearance since 2018-2019.

5 One of the most exciting young teams in the league, the Montreal Canadiens have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, but it’s not going to be an easy path for the Lightning, either. Since the Olympic break, captain Nick Suzuki ranks fifth in the league with 36 points (11 G, 25 A) in 25 games, Cole Caufield leads the league with 19 goals in 24 games, and Juraj Slafkovsky is tied for 18th with 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in 25 games. It’s early in the team’s trajectory for the Canadiens to go on a long playoff run, especially considering their mediocre possession numbers, but if their young stars show up, they could do some damage.

6 The Utah Mammoth are making their first playoff appearance and, like the Canadiens, have a group of skilled forwards that can make a difference. Clayton Keller had 34 points (9 G, 25 A) in 25 games after the Olympic break, Dylan Guenther added 26 points (25 G, 11 A) and 64 shots on goal in 24 games, and Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz, and Mikhail Sergachev each had at least 20 points. They may not have the playoff experience of the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Mammoth have some players who could make the first-round series very interesting.

7 One of the more remarkable parts of Boston’s strong finish to the regular season was the production that they received from veterans Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson, two players who have had very solid careers but performed like stars down the stretch. Zacha finished the regular season with 28 points (15 G, 13 A) and 44 shots on goal in 24 games. That is dependent on an inflated shooting percentage, but it’s fantastic production from a player who is not a star. Similarly, Arvidsson had 26 points (11 G, 15 A) with 51 shots on goal in his last 24 games.

8 While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin draw most of the attention in Pittsburgh, the wingers in the supporting cast should not be ignored, especially since the Penguins have a chance to advance beyond the first round. Bryan Rust tied his career high with 65 points (29 G, 36 A) this season, finishing with 25 points and 57 shots on goal in 23 games after the Olympic break. He’s not the only one. Rickard Rakell played a bunch of centre, especially when Crosby was injured, and he had 23 points (13 G, 10 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 20 games.

9 Two of Kyle Dubas’ best acquisitions in the past year played a big part in Pittsburgh reaching the postseason. Egor Chinakhov flashed potential with the Columbus Blue Jackets a couple of years ago, when he had 29 points (16 G, 13 A) in 53 games, but he struggled to get going at the start of this season and the Penguins swooped in, getting him for a second-round pick. They watched him grow into a role as a legitimate scoring winger who tallied 32 points (15 G, 17 A) with 86 shots on goal in his last 33 games.

10 A 20 Fantasy Poins favourite, Anthony Mantha played just 13 games last season in Calgary before tearing his ACL. The Penguins signed him as a free agent, to a one-year, $2.5 million deal that was almost assuredly intended to make him very tradeable once he proved that he could still play. He did that quickly, generating 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 23 shots on goal in his first 12 games and then, as the Penguins continued to win, it became apparent that there would be little upside to trading a winger who was filling the net. He finished the season by scoring 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in his last 19 games on his way to career highs of 33 goals and 64 points. He has zero goals in 14 career playoff games, so this year presents a prime opportunity for Mantha to net his first postseason goal.

11 Dallas Stars veteran Matt Duchene suffered an upper-body injury early in the season, and he struggled, but once he got healthy, and then the Stars needed him to play a bigger role as injuries decimated their forward group. Duchene finished the season with 34 points (12 G, 22 A) and 54 shots on goal in his last 31 games. The shot rate is not ideal, but his role on the top power play unit and skating between Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque on the Stars’ second line is very encouraging. Bourque is starting to unlock his potential, too, putting up 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 44 shots on goal in 23 games since the beginning of March.

12 The Ottawa Senators have the profile of a contending team, so even though they are facing a relentless Carolina Hurricanes squad, they should not be considered pushovers. Part of the reason to like the Sens is their scoring depth. Since the Olympic break, Drake Batherson has put up 22 points (14 G, 8 A) with 55 shots on goal in 25 games, lifting him to career highs of 33 goals and 71 points on the season.

13 Everyone is aware of Boston Bruins defenceman Charlie McAvoy. He played for Team USA at the Olympics and has been in the Top 10 of Norris Trophy voting three times in his career, but part of what he is known for is being a standout defender who does not pad his production with power play points. It’s not that he never played the power play, but it wasn’t the foundation of his production like it is for some other defenders. In the second half of the season, as the Bruins pushed for a playoff spot, McAvoy turned into one of those point-producing blueliners. In his last 41 games, McAvoy accrued 42 points (10 G, 32 A) with 66 shots on goal and 14 of those 42 points came on the power play.

14 The Philadelphia Flyers made a late charge to get into the playoffs, in part fueled by 2025 No. 6 pick Porter Martone, who scored 50 points (25 G, 25 A) in 35 games as a freshman at Michigan State then signed with the Flyers when his collegiate season was done. Martone did not waste any time upon turning pro, as he produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 32 shots on goal and 16 hits in nine games. He’s a ready-made power forward and is one of the biggest reasons for the Flyers to be a threat against the Penguins in the first round.

15 The Carolina Hurricanes put pressure on their opponents from the drop of the opening puck and part of what makes it work is that they get contributions from secondary players. Look at the line of veteran left winger Taylor Hall skating with younger players Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven. Hall has 21 points (6 G, 15 A) and 42 shots on goal in 23 games since the Olympic break, Stankoven finished the regular season with 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal during an 8-game point streak, and Blake had 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 32 shots on goal in his last 14 games.

16 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jackson LaCombe has seen his stock rise in the past few seasons, but this will be his first appearance in the playoffs. In the second half of the season, LaCombe contributed 35 points (4 G, 31 A) with 66 shots on goal in 41 games. The arrival of John Carlson at the trade deadline didn’t hurt LaCombe either, as he had 17 points (4 G, 13 A) in 21 games after the trade.

17 The Los Angeles Kings are fighting uphill, facing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round, but if they are going to have success, they may need a breakthrough performance from centre Quinton Byfield, who struggled to score consistently this season, but then finished with 16 points (11 G, 5 A) and 45 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Byfield’s right winger, Alex Laferriere brings the heavy physical game that should work in the postseason and Laferriere had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 47 shots on goal and 60 hits in his last 16 games of the regular season.

18 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Sean Walker has surged offensively down the stretch. Since the Olympic break, Walker has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 55 shots on goal in 24 games, and he doesn’t depend on the man advantage to get his points as only one of his 31 points this season came via the power play.

19 Heading into the playoffs, here are some goaltenders that finished the season strong. Since the Olympic break, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes was 11-5 with a .916 save percentage. Colorado’s Scott Wedgewood was 11-2-1 with a .945 save percentage, which becomes interesting because Mackenzie Blackwood struggled. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was 11-2-1 with a .920 save percentage, and Boston’s Jeremy Swayman was 9-6-1 with a .918 save percentage. Kings goaltender Anton Forsberg was 7-5 with a .914 save percentage, which is notable because Darcy Kuemper also had trouble down the stretch.

20 On the other hand, these goaltenders had trouble late in the season that could pose challenges in the playoffs. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka 11-6-1 but his save percentage was .883. Mackenzie Blackwood was 7-5-1 with a .884 save percentage. Carolina’s Frederik Andersen has had a tough season and finished with a 9-4 record but a .879 save percentage in his last 13 games. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal was 9-7-2 with a .868 save percentage down the stretch. Kuemper was 5-3-6 with a .867 save percentage and Carolina’s Brandon Bussi was 8-3-1 with a .865 save percentage.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

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MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-montreal-canadiens-team-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-montreal-canadiens-team-preview/#respond Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:00:05 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=195647 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

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LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 05: Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (13) skates in warm ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Montreal Canadiens on February 5th, 2025, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

For the past couple of years, the anticipation that’s built around the Canadiens rebuild and wondering when they’d finally emerge came to fruition. Montreal finished with the second wild card after putting up 91 points, a 15-point improvement from the previous year, and held off Columbus and Detroit for the final playoff spot and their first playoff berth since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021. On paper, the Canadiens numbers weren’t exactly electrifying. At five-on-five they had the fifth lowest CorsiFor and expected goals for percentages. They allowed the eighth most goals at five-on-five and were tied for 18th in goals scored. Their power play was 21st in the league but they had the ninth best penalty kill. A great season from starting goalie Samuel Montembeault (.902 save percentage, four shutouts) was a key reason for their success and backup Jakub Dobes (7-4-3, .909 save percentage) made Cayden Primeau expendable. They were also buoyed by an incredible Calder Trophy-winning season from defenceman Lane Hutson who had 66 points and was third on the team in scoring behind 30-goal scorers Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

What’s Changed?

Montreal was able to leverage their cap space and draft assets to make one of the biggest moves of the summer. The Canadiens acquired defenceman Noah Dobson in a sign-and-trade deal from the New York Islanders for Emil Heineman and two 2025 first-round picks. Dobson signed an eight-year, $76 million extension and by adding Dobson, the Canadiens have yet another high-end puck-moving offensive defenceman to go with Hutson. Coach Martin St. Louis likes his team to play high-intensity, fast hockey to get up and down the ice and with Hutson and Dobson they can do that much more often. As big as the Dobson move was, the rest of the summer was quiet. Defenceman Logan Mailloux was sent to St. Louis for promising forward Zack Bolduc and goalie Cayden Primeau was traded to Carolina for a pick. They also added forwards Samuel Blais and Joseph Veleno on one-year deals.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Canadiens can continue where they left off last season and use their playoff appearance against Washington to spur them forward into perhaps a battle for second or third place in the Atlantic Division, that would show the path they’ve carved out in this rebuild continues to be the right one. While they’ve got aspects of their game to clean up all around, getting high-end performances from Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Dobson, Juraj Slafkovský and Patrik Laine again would make a very exciting team infinitely more dangerous to play against. Whether it’s Montembeault or Dobes who take control in net might be worth keeping an eye on, but the balance struck last season worked well. Montreal’s style of play and high-end talent make them exciting and if that can all be honed more, this is a team that can be frustrating for years to come.

What Could Go Wrong?

Montreal seemed to win despite having average-to-below-average shot and expected goal numbers and if the good fortune and goaltending that allowed them to buck those trends fails them, they’ll be in a battle to try and make the postseason in what could be a very crowded field, particularly in the Atlantic. Between Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston, Columbus, the New York Rangers and Islanders, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, things get messy fast in the East. Any slip-ups and losing streaks can dunk a team in the bottom of the standings and make up ground when everyone is so even is extremely difficult. Suzuki and Caufield must lead the pace while Slafkovský continue to press forward in his own development as a power forward. The balance between Dobson and Hutson bears watching too. Chemistry will be tested.

Top Breakout Candidate

With all the young talent in Montreal to watch, the biggest one to keep an eye on this season is Ivan Demidov. The Canadiens first-round pick in 2024, fifth overall, left his team in Russia last season and joined the team late in the regular season and playoffs. In two games he had a goal and an assist and in five playoff games against the Capitals he had two assists. At 6-foot-1, 190 pounds he’s a handful to defend with his moves, speed and skills.  Plugging him into Montreal’s top six forward group makes this exciting team even more fascinating to watch. Expect more Calder hype to come for Demidov, he’ll be a blast to watch.

FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 33 57 90 1.10

The leader of Montreal’s surge to the playoffs, Nick Suzuki turned a lot of heads last season. After years of debates of whether he can be a 1C on a contending team, he carried Montreal’s offence on his back to get them from a lottery team to a playoff spot. How good was he? His point-pace after the Four Nations break would put him in company with some of the league’s elites. Getting on the scoresheet every night and seeing his responsibility with his ice-time reaching 21 minutes a game by March. Always a workhorse in the defensive zone and in the transition game, Suzuki’s offence reaching the next level was always a work in progress. Something clicked the last two season with him shooting the puck more and playing with more pace off the rush. Areas where he’s improved the most is playing the give-and-go game and creating more sustained offence. Last season was the most shots per 60 minutes he created off the cycle in his career, as most of his offence was primarily off the rush in previous seasons. This is what can make a great playmaker like him turn into an elite one, as it’s tougher to create chances when the game isn’t open and space is hard to come by. Suzuki took a huge step in improving his game here and it bodes well for him long-term. Repeating what he did in the second half will be difficult, but the Habs don’t have any questions of who to build their roster around now.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 42 34 76 0.93

While Suzuki was the engine of Montreal’s run to the playoffs, Caufield was the motor all season long. He reaped some of the benefits of Suzuki’s playmaking as a small, pure shooter who gets lost in the weeds of the offensive zone. Doesn’t always need great setups to score, but his own play is enhanced when surrounded by elite playmaking. He led the NHL in shots off high danger passes last season, which was a product of his linemates and Caufield’s own instincts as a goal-scorer. Helped him become a high-20’s goal guy to someone who could push 40 over multiple seasons. The nice thing about Caufield is his game isn’t one-dimensional, and he doesn’t always need to be the shooter. Him, Suzuki and Slafkovksy did a great job of reading off each other and Caufield added another wrinkle to his game by passing from areas that he typically shoots from, giving his linemates tap-in chances for easy goals. He’s also grown as a player who can help drive the play in the neutral zone, gaining more confidence with making plays across the line rather than chipping it in. The only area where his size has set him back is as a defensive player. He’s not a good enough puck-carrier to dodge forecheckers and can have shifts where he’s stuck in his own zone when he’s the one leading the exit. It’s something Monteral can live with if he produces like he did last season. Caufield is one of the league’s young stars and entering his prime.

Juraj Slavkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 27 34 61 0.75

While his point total might not show it, those who watch Montreal will tell you Slafkovsky turned a corner this past season. Moved to the top line, Slafkovsky reaped the benefits of playing with the Habs two best players and finally showed some high-level skill. He was one of the best forwards in the league at setting up high danger passes, using that long reach to win pucks behind the goal line and showing the finesse that got him drafted first overall. He was also a critical piece in the defensive zone, taking some of the heat off Suzuki starting most of the breakouts and giving them a little more stability than Caufield did with getting pucks out. It’s still hard to say if he’s a future star or a third wheel on the top line because most of the skills he is rated best at are better utilized when paired with an elite talent. A good example being how most of his shots came off deflections and one-timers and how most of his setups were from behind the goal line or across the slot. Those are great qualities to have, but not the most repeatable on a year-to-year basis if you’re not going to be with the same linemates. That said, Slafkovsky progressed in the skills that are more repeatable too. His ability to gain the zone with control has improved dramatically since his rookie year. His shot assist rate is also climbing to a first line level after two seasons of bad to mediocre numbers. Slafkovsky is more involved in the play in general and Montreal is hoping that he will keep adding to his toolbox next season. He’s setup nicely to be a contributor on the top line, but taking the next step to becoming someone who can drive his own line is what you want to see from him as he gets older.

Zack Bolduc

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 24 18 42 0.56

The Blues moving on from Bolduc was a little surprising even if they weren’t expecting him to sustain a goal scoring pace of 16 percent. He had somewhat of a roller coaster rookie season with 19 goals despite multiple games as a healthy scratch and inconsistent deployment. The St. Louis top six isn’t an easy group to break into, and the deck was stacked against him with Jake Neighbours scoring more and locking down one of those spots. Combine that with the team wanting to put newcomer Jimmy Snuggerud on the top line and Bolduc might have become expendable. He’s an intriguing player, who isn’t big but uses his upper body well to separate himself from defenders to get to pucks first. His wrist shot is hard, deceptive and he’s very good at using his body to “catch” pucks in the slot and settle them down from there. Uses his feet well to chase down pucks and he’s very quick at making passes along the wall, both to set up shots and help exit the zone. The Blues liked him enough to use him in the bumper spot on the power play, where he scored seven of his goals. He has a lot of tools Montreal can use as a deceptive scorer in the middle of the roster. He has the most balanced all-around skillset of the players he’s competing with for a top six spot and his track record of scoring on lower lines should also give him an edge.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
55 20 17 37 0.67

Looking to restart his career, Laine’s season almost began on a disastrous note after taking a brutal knee-on-knee collision in his first preseason game. Thankfully, he didn’t require surgery, and his first year in Montreal was what you would expect from the young Finn. Recording yet another 20-goal season with 15 of them coming on the power play, there wasn’t much that changed with Laine. He’s always going to score at 30+ goal pace but will rarely ever play 82 games and his five-on-five play is always going to be erratic. For as much as he likes to shoot the puck on the power play, he deferred to the point a lot when playing at even strength and only shot unless he could get himself set up for a great chance. The quality over quantity approach isn’t a bad thing, but taking things to an extreme degree has been the problem with Laine over his career. He likes being the first player on the puck in the defensive zone to skate it out but has never been good when having to fight a forechecker for it, getting knocked off the play and turning it over frequently. He’s never been a fast player and knee injuries have made him look like he is skating on concrete at times, which limits his game to that of a one-dimensional power play specialist. He might have a grace period with all the injuries he’s battled, but there is going to be some heat for his roster spot next season with rookie Ivan Demidov and newcomer Zach Bolduc in the fold now.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
70 15 17 32 0.46

The lanky centerman is still an unfinished product and Montreal still doesn’t know what they have in him with Dach spending more time on injured reserve than on the ice. A torn ACL cost him his entire 2023-24 season, and he was limited to only 54 games last season after having surgery on his knee again. He’s a tall player who can skate fluidly and protect the puck well. Using his teammates has been his drawback, has he has tunnel vision in the offensive zone, and the game slows down for him to a troubling degree after he gains the line. He is very deliberate with his decision making both off the rush and on cycles, but he isn’t precise with his passing and a lot of plays die on his stick. He tried to make up for it last season by playing more of a net-front role alongside Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine, which was a fit stylistically with Dach using his big body as a screen. Converting on rebounds was the challenge for him, as it would take him a couple of tries to finally locate the puck when it was loose around the net. Possibly still feeling the effects of a broken wrist that happened early in his career. The stop-start nature to Dach’s career has made it tough to properly evaluate him and the multiple knee surgeries aren’t going to help some of his issues with acceleration and getting away from defenders. He has shown flashes of brilliance with Montreal as recently as two years ago, but it’s hard to say if he can regain that form.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 13 15 28 0.34

Taking fliers on former first round picks from other teams has provided the Habs with mixed results. The journey of Alex Newhook best exemplifies that. He shows flashes of being a special player and it’s usually when the table is set for him by his linemates. When he skates downhill from high in the offensive zone, he’s got one of the more dangerous shots on the Habs. The puck snaps right off his stick with a lot of elevation and accuracy. When his linemates drive the lane, he can make beautiful cross-seam passes and change the complexion of the game. Newhook can do enough to carry a third line but struggles when the game gets difficult and he has to make more plays under duress. He usually defers to his linemates at the first sign of pressure and doesn’t like to challenge the defence to risk a turnover. The safe style of play earns you some trust with the coaching staff, but it’s also frustrating to watch when you see glimpses of game-breaking skill from Newhook. He showed some signs of improving that last season, carrying the puck more and posting shot and scoring chance contribution rates that were around the league average. Becoming a threat on the power play has been the other challenge with him scoring only one goal with the man advantage all season despite consistent deployment on the second unit. Now 25, a skilled low-producing depth player might be all Newhook is, but he always shows just enough to make you want more.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 18 15 33 0.44

A mainstay in the Habs lineup for over a decade, Gallagher has a more important role in the locker room than he does on the ice, but last year was a return to form. While injuries have plagued the back half of his career, he is coming off his first 20-goal season in five years while playing mostly on the lower lines and second power play unit. Gallagher still plays the same, gritty style he always has. A pest by nature, he’s always around the net and taking a few extra pokes at the loose puck after the whistle just to stir the pot. This is part of why he’s had so many injury problems, as he’s eaten a lot of cross-checks in front of the net over the years. This is despite him not being that old at 32 years old, but with more miles logged and harder minutes. He formed an effective line with Josh Anderson for most of the season, the duo playing a straight-head game and doing an excellent job of driving play. They don’t score as much as they should for how many chances they get from close range, but they’re done with more brute force than finesse. Gallagher’s season was somewhat of a saving grace for Montreal with their need for more productive depth players. With how straight-ahead his game is, staying healthy will be key for Gallagher sustaining this level of play.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 16 13 29 0.37

Josh Anderson is one of the few players you could describe as a runaway train and have it be considered a backhanded compliment. He is a huge forward who skates like a bullet and makes a beeline for the net regardless of if he has the puck. He’s noticeable with how quick and powerful he skates and how many shots he takes. You also notice how he never looks to pass to teammates, lets chances go to waste by shooting into the goalie’s crest and how often he turns the puck over while trying to bolt out of his own zone. If there is such a thing as a one-way player, Anderson fits the description because his positive traits are all related to shooting and speed. He was one of the Habs best forwards at scoring chances at even strength despite having the lowest shot assist rate on the team. It’s also made him regularly deployed on the penalty kill, where he’s only out there to create shorthanded rushes and keep other power plays honest. Some of his flaws were covered by playing on a line with Brendan Gallagher last season, as the duo were a positive line for the Habs thanks to Gallagher’s knack for generating second chances and creating sustained possessions, so all of Anderson’s rushes weren’t of the one-and-done variety. Montreal values Anderson’s size and speed, so he will continue to be a trusted member of their forward corps.

DEFENCE

Lane Hutson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 11 64 75 0.91

The early part of last season was all about letting Lane Hutson cook. They gave the young blue-liner free reign to do whatever he wanted with the puck, letting him control the cycle from the outside and dissect the coverage from up high. It took a couple months for the results to show, but he was one of the most productive blue-liners in the league during the second half. If there was anything it proved it was that Hutson is a quick study because he learned his teammates' tendencies well and got better at reading off them as the season went on. His footwork makes it difficult to challenge him high in the zone, frequently making defenders miss and if he got any room, he could easily get the puck to the net or find someone open within a second. Leaving him alone is also dangerous because he excels at getting shots through and shooting for deflections. His game in the defensive zone is ahead of his years, handling the bulk of the work on puck retrievals and using his stick to disrupt rush chances well. Hutson doesn’t trust his defensive game to the point where he can aggressively challenge forwards yet, so he makes up for it by playing deeper in the zone and letting the play come to him. We will see if he changes this part of his game now that teams can pick up on his tendencies. His play with the puck, however, is very tough to prepare for and the sky should be the limit as Montreal’s forwards continue to improve.

Noah Dobson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 12 42 54 0.68

After enjoying one season as one of the league’s highest scoring defencemen, Dobson didn’t get the same level of puck luck on assists this past season and saw his point total take a drastic fall. Not that scoring is the only thing Dobson brings to the table. He’s a rangy, mobile defenceman who can get you out of the zone quickly and log heavy minutes. The burden he carried on the Isles defence corps proved to be a little too much last season, as the team got heavily outscored with him on the ice at five-on-five. This made fans notice his flaws more than the things that made him special. The turnovers are pointed out more instead of the subtle plays with the puck. You see him missing the net with the booming slapshot more than you notice how smoothly he plays the fourth forward role with joining the rush. He is a high-risk/high-reward defenceman by nature, so it’s understandable that he can be a lighting rod when things aren’t going well. That pressure likely won’t be going away now that he is Montreal’s undisputed number one defenceman. On paper, he complements young Lane Hutson nicely. They can both skate and split the workload in the defensive zone on puck retrievals. The hope is that they don’t have to spend too much time in their own zone defending because the potential for them to be a high-octane offensive-D pair is really exciting to think about. Players like Dobson don’t come along very often, especially at only 25 years old, so this raises the bar very high for an ascending Habs squad.

Mike Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 6 23 29 0.37

While Hutson was still getting used to the NHL, Matheson played the role of Montreal’s top defenceman by default. He has the physical tools and the endurance to play the minutes, but not the awareness to handle the workload. Spending so much of your shifts in the defensive zone takes its toll on your body after awhile and Matheson felt the effects of it in some games. He’s an explosive, puck-rushing defenceman by nature and was pigeonholed into more of a defensive role with Habs short on proven options. Montreal even tried pairing Hutson with Matheson for a brief spell before forming a shutdown pair with midseason acquisition Alex Carrier. The duo did a good job of keeping the puck out of their net but had to put out a lot of fires in their own zone. Which goes back to Matheson being asked to do too much as the team’s do-it-all defenceman last season. The weight is going to be taken off him next year with Noah Dobson in the fold and Hutson stepping up on the top-pair. It likely spells the end of him getting power play time in Montreal and his role possibly being shifted to more of a defensive specialist with heavy minutes on the penalty kill. Matheson’s skating and ability to be a one-man breakout is always going to keep him in the top four, it’s just a question of if he’ll perform better in a lesser role.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
58 29 20 7 4 .903 2.85

It could be easy to criticize what the Montreal Canadiens are doing in net at the moment. As they enter the final year of Carey Price's albatross contract, five full years after his last NHL appearance for the club, their options in net are a former mid-tier Florida Panthers prospect, a 24-year old who split last season between the big club and AHL's Laval, and former Minnesota Wild draft pick Kaapo Kahkonen - who served as a backup for the Wild, then the San Jose Sharks, before getting claimed off waivers twice last year and then getting traded.  As much as Sam Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and Kahkonen might seem like a motley crew of cast-off toys, though, they could be the first trio of roster figures Montreal has strung together in net in years that won't cause fans to hold their breath in nervous anticipation. Montembeault's numbers last year looked just barely better than league average, but he managed to maintain those over one of the league's heaviest workloads - and his more situational analytics have slowly been trending upward with each year that he's given more responsibility. Dobes did an admiral job stepping up as well, splitting the net with Montembeault in the postseason to give him both regular season and playoff NHL experience to take into next year. And Kahkonen, while on an admittedly wild ride the last handful of seasons, provides the perfect opportunity for Dobes to start the year getting plenty of reps in the AHL to warm up for the back half of the season; it's not the flashiest trio in the league, but it seems perfectly built to keep Montreal battling for playoff contention for yet another year.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Avalanche and Hurricanes make blockbuster deal, Flames and Flyers swing four-player swap, the Islanders renovate their blueline, McTavish, Smith, and Slafkovsky are some young forwards picking up steam and much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-avalanche-hurricanes-blockbuster-deal-flames-flyers-swing-four-player-swap-islanders-renovate-blueline-mctavish-smith-slafkovsky-young-forwards-picking-steam-mor/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-avalanche-hurricanes-blockbuster-deal-flames-flyers-swing-four-player-swap-islanders-renovate-blueline-mctavish-smith-slafkovsky-young-forwards-picking-steam-mor/#respond Fri, 31 Jan 2025 13:30:21 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=191799 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Avalanche and Hurricanes make blockbuster deal, Flames and Flyers swing four-player swap, the Islanders renovate their blueline, McTavish, Smith, and Slafkovsky are some young forwards picking up steam and much more!

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 28: Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing Mikko Rantanen (96) in action prior to the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers on January 28, 2025 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Avalanche and Hurricanes made a blockbuster deal, the Flames and Flyers swing a four-player swap, the Islanders renovate their blueline, and Mason McTavish, Will Smith, and Juraj Slafkovsky are some young forwards picking up steam and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 The Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche made a massive trade last week, a rare in-season move involving star players. The Hurricanes landed Mikko Rantanen from the Avalanche and Taylor Hall from the Blackhawks in the three-team deal. Rantanen is one of the league’s premier forwards and since the 2020-2021 season, he has averaged 1.27 points per game, ranking seventh in the league. In his first three games with Carolina, Rantanen has a goal and an assist, but also has 13 shots on goal despite seeing his average time on ice drop to 19:06 per game after averaging 22:30 per game in Colorado. Hall’s ice time was reduced in Chicago this season but his 1.88 points per 60 minutes ranked second on the Blackhawks among forwards to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes (behind Ryan Donato). So, while Rantanen might play less after joining a team with Carolina’s depth of talent, Hall might actually find his way to more ice time with the Hurricanes.

#2 Colorado acquired right winger Martin Necas and centre Jack Drury from Carolina. Necas had 55 points in 49 games with Carolina before getting traded and he has put up four assists in three games. The Avalanche have also taken to giving Necas the same kind of role that Rantanen held, so Necas has averaged 23:08 of ice time per game in his first three games for the Avs after playing 18:05 per game in Carolina. Drury is more of a depth option, though he has scored two goals in his first three games for Colorado.

#3 The Calgary Flames and Philadelphia Flyers are both in the hunt for playoff spots and the teams swapped players Thursday. Calgary acquired winger Joel Farabee and centre Morgan Frost, sending wingers Andrei Kuzmenko and Jakob Pelletier, along with a couple of draft picks, to Philadelphia. Farabee is a solid complementary winger who scored a career-high 50 points (22 G, 28 A) last season, but has just 19 points (8 G, 11 A) through 50 games this season. He could use the fresh start. Frost has had a bit of a tumultuous run in Philadelphia, especially with John Tortorella as head coach. Frost is a talented player but had one assist and seven shots on goal in his last seven games with the Flyers.

#4 Kuzmenko is a 28-year-old winger who tallied 39 goals and 74 points for Vancouver in 2022-2023, his first season in the NHL, but he has just four goals and 15 points in 37 games this season. He did cross paths with Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov back in the KHL, as Kuzmenko was the leading scorer for SKA St. Petersburg in 2022-2023 when Michkov was just getting his feet wet with that team in the KHL. Perhaps Kuzmenko can help shake Michkov from the slump that has seen him produce just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past 24 games. Pelletier was a first-round pick in 2019, but it has taken a while for him to show that he belongs in the NHL. He did have six points (3 G, 3 A) in his last nine games for the Flames and the small skilled winger can hope to secure more consistent playing time in Philadelphia.

#5 Injuries have forced the New York Islanders to address their blueline and they have signed Tony DeAngelo, who was playing in the KHL, and acquired Scott Perunovich in a trade with the St. Louis Blues. DeAngelo had 32 points (6 G, 26 A) in 34 games for St. Petersburg in the KHL but still fell out of favor. He has one assist in three games for the Islanders but has averaged more than 25 minutes of ice time per game and is quarterbacking the Islanders top power play unit. Perunovich has recorded an assist in both of his first two games for the Islanders.

#6 Anahiem Ducks centre Mason McTavish started relatively slowly this season, with 19 points (6 G, 13 A) through 40 games. He does have seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past five games, however, so it’s worth keeping tabs on the 22-year-old. He is skating with Cutter Gauthier and Robby Fabbri at even strength, but McTavish is also getting first-unit power play time.

#7 San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith has taken some time to find his groove during his first NHL campaign, but it looks like the fourth pick in the 2023 Draft is getting comfortable. He is riding a six-game point streak, during which he has amassed seven points (2 G, 5 A) and is skating on a line with veteran Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund. Granlund has eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past six games, and with 46 points on the season, he looks like a good bet to hit the 60-point plateau for the fifth time in his career.

#8 There have been some uneven moments in the development path for Montreal Canadiens winger Juraj Slafkovsky, the first pick in the 2022 Draft. Despite enjoying great success with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield last season, Slafkovsky has been moved down the depth chart at times this season and he scored four goals (plus 19 assists) in the first 40 games of the season. Since then, Slafkovsky has six points (4 G, 2 A) in eight games and looks a lot more like the power forward who finished last season with 35 points (16 G, 19 A) in his last 40 games.

#9 When the Nashville Predators struggled early in the season, there was concern that centre Tommy Novak wasn’t up to the task of providing much-needed secondary scoring, and he managed just nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his first 35 games.  After that inauspicious start to the season, Novak has contributed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past five games, and is having some success skating with rookies Fedor Svechkov and Zachary L’Heureux.

#10 Buffalo Sabres left winger JJ Peterka enjoyed a terrific start to the season and then went through a slump in late November and early December, but he has rebounded with 21 points (6 G, 15 A) in his past 20 games, highlighted by his three-goal, one-assist performance in Tuesday’s win over Buffalo. More recently, the Sabres have been running Peterka on a line with rookie Jiri Kulich at centre and Tage Thompson on right wing. Kulich has nine points (5 G, 4 A) in his past 12 games. Thompson, who is more widely rostered than his linemates, has 26 points (14 G, 12 A) in his past 26 games.

#11 Marco Kasper was the eighth pick in the 2022 Draft by the Detroit Red Wings and he was offering an unremarkable rookie season, with seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his first 35 games. Moving up the depth chart has done wonders for the young skilled winger, and he has put up 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 11 games. With Patrick Kane injured, Kasper is skating on the Red Wings’ top line, with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, as well as playing on Detroit’s first power play unit. Given their success, the trio might need to stay together even when Kane returns.

#12 The Toronto Maple Leafs do not get great production out of their defencemen, as Morgan Rielly is Toronto’s highest scoring blueliner with 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 51 games. Just behind him, though, is veteran Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games, giving him 21 points for the season. Just as importantly, Ekman-Larsson is averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch. The Maple Leafs run five forwards on their top power play unit, with Rielly and Ekman-Larsson on the second unit.

#13 Chicago Blackhawks rookie Frank Nazar was the 13th pick in the 2022 Draft and was tearing up the AHL this season with 24 points (11 G, 13 A) in 21 games and when the Blackhawks made a coaching change, they promoted Nazar shortly thereafter. While he did not have immediate success, there have been signs of progress. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past eight games and is now skating on Connor Bedard’s wing on Chicago’s top line.

#14 Seattle Kraken winger Jared McCann has been one their most productive players since the expansion draft, scoring 110 goals and 221 points to lead the franchise. While McCann has been more of a goal scorer as he has emerged as a legitimate offensive threat, he has turned playmaker lately. In his past 13 games, McCann has 12 points (1 G, 11 A) and 17 shots on goal. That low shot total needs to improve because while McCann is not usually a high-volume shooter, 1.3 shots on goal per game is not the stuff of consistent top line scorers.

#15 As the Carolina Hurricanes appear to have pushed their chips all in for this season, there is an opportunity for centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi to fulfill a supporting role. Carolina’s addition of Taylor Hall offers the possibility that Kotkaniemi could have more skill on his wings and Kotkaniemi has produced six points (4 G, 2 A) in his past six games. After scoring 27 points in 79 games last season, Kotkaniemi has already chipped in 25 points (10 G, 15 A) in 52 games this season, so he is developing, even if it might be at a slower pace than the ‘Canes might have initially hoped.

#16 Mammoth Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas is enjoying a breakthrough season and is thriving with a six-game point streak, during which he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal. Protas has not been a huge shot generator, so he has been dependent on a shooting percentage of 23.3 percent to score 21 goals in 51 games. His 20 even-strength goals is tied for fifth in the league, behind only Leon Draisaitl (26), Mark Scheifele (22), William Nylander (22), and Tage Thompson (21).

#17 Los Angeles Kings netminder Darcy Kuemper has enjoyed some excellent seasons in his career but he had injury problems when he was with Washington last season, and it was hard to know whether he would be able to bounce back as a 34-year-old goaltender. Saskatoon native Kuemper has been excellent for the Kings, and since the calendar turned to 2025, he has a .938 save percentage in 10 games. Kuemper has 9.65 goals saved above expected this season, which ranks 10th in the NHL, a level of play that the Kings did not have much right to expect.

#18 The Washington Capitals started the season with a goaltending tandem of Charles Lindgren and Logan Thompson and that duo has helped the Capitals to the league’s best record. While there was an even split in the crease for a good portion of the season, Lindgren missed some time with injury, and it allowed Thompson to emerge as the No. 1 option between the pipes for Washington. In his past dozen starts, Thompson has a record of 11-0-1 while posting a .949 save percentage. He earned a six-year, $35.1 million contract extension, nice work for the former USports goaltender.

#19 Veteran Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson is getting a steady diet of starts in the Anaheim net, perhaps showcasing him for a potential trade. Lukas Dostal has played well, establishing himself as the Ducks’ goaltender of the future, and possibly the present, but in his past 11 appearances, Gibson has a .922 save percentage. That kind of performance should help to make Gibson more appealing to a playoff contender that is looking for an upgrade in goal and a move to a team that is more likely to win would certainly improve Gibson’s fantasy value.

#20 Dallas Stars standout defenceman Miro Heiskanen is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury, suffered following an unusual hit from Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone. Heiskanen will miss the 4 Nations Face-Off, and his absence from the Stars lineup will be every bit as challenging as it will be for Team Finland to be without the rock steady blueliner. With Heiskanen out, Thomas Harley should see more time on the power play. Only three of Harley’s 23 points this season have come via the man advantage.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Annunen, Rossi, Strome, and Key Injury Updates https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-annunen-rossi-strome-key-injury-updates/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-annunen-rossi-strome-key-injury-updates/#respond Sat, 26 Oct 2024 13:00:22 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=190333 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Annunen, Rossi, Strome, and Key Injury Updates

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BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 06: Minnesota Wild center Marco Rossi (23) skates with the puck during the NHL game between Minnesota Wild and Boston Bruins on January 6, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, MA. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Colorado shakes up its goaltending, Dylan Strome, Marco Rossi, JJ Peterka, and a big injury in St. Louis.

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 As much as the Colorado Avalanche might have wanted to give Alexandar Georgiev time to sort out his troubles, he did not give them nearly enough, managing a .810 save percentage in his first five games. Justus Annunen has stepped up, posting a 3-1 record with a .935 save percentage in four starts. The 24-year-old showed some promise last season, putting up a .928 save percentage in 14 games. If he gives the Avalanche a chance to win, Annunen is going to keep getting starts and Georgiev may want to look over his shoulder at Kaapo Kahkonen, who the Avs picked up off waivers a few weeks ago.

#2 After tallying a career-high 67 points (27 G, 40 A) last season, Washington Capitals centre Dylan Strome has started strong this season with nine points (3 G, 6 A) in six games. Strome does not generate a lot of shots and is scoring on 27.3 percent of his shots early in the season, so there is likely regression heading in his direction, but he has turned into a reliable point producer in Washington, and it appears that is going to continue.

#3 The Minnesota Wild have started the season on a hot streak, with a 5-0-2 record through seven games, and centre Marco Rossi looks like he is starting to fulfill his potential. The ninth pick in the 2020 Draft, Rossi finished sixth in Calder Trophy voting last season after scoring 40 points (21 G, 19 A) in 81 games. This season, he has spent most of his time between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the Wild’s top line and has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a six-game point streak. Rossi is also scoring on 23.1 percent of his shots, so that probably won’t continue, but it’s much more important that he continues to produce to hold his spot on that top line.

#4 The St. Louis Blues have lost their playmaking star centre Robert Thomas due to a broken ankle and he will be re-evaluated in six weeks. After scoring a career-high 86 points last season, Thomas has six points (1 G, 5 A) in seven games, but his absence will leave a hole in the Blues lineup. With Thomas out, Brayden Schenn moves into the middle with Brandon Saad and Jake Neighbours, the wingers with whom he has played second and third-most this season. Jordan Kyrou, Thomas’ most common linemate, has joined a line with Pavel Buchnevich and Alexandre Texier.

#5 Sidelined by a concussion early in the season, Buffalo Sabres left winger JJ Peterka has come back to the lineup with authority. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in six games this season, but he played just 1:39 against New Jersey in the game that he suffered a concussion. He has landed on the Sabres’ top line, with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, a good spot for the promising young forward to fulfill his scoring potential.

#6 Power forward Mason Marchment had a tough time in his first season with Dallas, in 2022-2023, but delivered career highs of 22 goals and 53 points last season. He has picked up where he left off, with eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 18 hits in eight games to start this season. Marchment is getting first unit power play time, contributing three points with the man advantage, and skates with productive vets Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin at even strength.

#7 Los Angeles Kings winger Alex Laferriere is taking on a bigger role in his second season and has started the year with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in eight games while playing 2:30 more per game compared to the 2023-2024 season. He has moved to play with Warren Foegele and Alex Turcotte at even strength, where he has scored all seven of his points, but Laferriere is also getting first unit power play time which raises his offensive ceiling.

#8 When Aleksander Barkov was injured in the second game of the season, it was natural for the Florida Panthers to move Anton Lundell into the first-line centre role, but they may not have expected him to thrive so thoroughly in the role. In the past seven games, Lundell has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal. With Barkov reportedly nearing a return, the challenge for the Panthers will be how to maximize Lundell’s contributions even if he doesn’t have the same role and expectations.

#9 Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli has opened the season with nine points (1 G, 8 A) in seven games, though beware of that production. He had four assists in a win over New Jersey and his on-ice shooting percentage is currently 14.6 percent, notably higher than his career mark of 9.3 percent. He is skating on a line with Brandon Hagel and rookie Connor Geekie but is probably only of value in deeper leagues.

#10 Although Vancouver Canucks right winger Conor Garland is riding some higher percentages early in the season, on his way to six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games, it is useful to note that he is on the Canucks’ top power play unit, and playing nearly four minutes more per game compared to last season. Garland has finished with between 46 and 52 points in three consecutive seasons, but if he is going to play 18-plus minutes per game this season, his output should go higher.

#11 It looks like it is going to be another long season in San Jose, but Sharks centre Mikael Granlund is making the most of his opportunity. It might be the equivalent of empty calories for the winless Sharks, but Granlund is playing a career-high 21:51 per game and has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal in eight games. That shot rate of 3.6 per game is very unusual, as Granlund last finished with more than 2.0 shots per game in 2019-2020, and that season finished with 2.06 shots per game. If he is going to keep shooting with this frequency, though, Granlund should be a safer bet to keep putting up points and he has four 60-point seasons to his credit.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere is riding a five-game point streak, during which he has six points (4 G, 2 A). Three of those goals have come via the power play, and 2017-2018 was the last time that Gostisbere finished with more than five power play goals in a season, so he could thrive in something of a specialist’s role with Carolina. He has been playing 18:33 per game this season, which is th3 second-lowest average of his career and yet his 2.29 shots on goal per game is his highest rate since 2018-2019.

#13 He already has a couple of 20-goal seasons to his credit, but Columbus Blue Jackets winger Kirill Marchenko could be poised for bigger things in his third NHL season. Skating on Columbus’ top line alongside Sean Monahan and Cole Sillinger and getting first unit power play time, Marchenko has eight points (3 G, 5 A) while averaging 19 minutes of ice time through six games. With expectations relatively low in Columbus, there are some players who are flying under the radar despite their production and Marchenko is one of them.

#14 It might be too soon to buy low on Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens, but at least put him on your radar. The 23-year-old has just two assists in eight games, which is far from useful for fantasy managers, but he is in a decent situation, getting first-unit power play time in Buffalo and skating on a line with rookie Jiri Kulich and Jack Quinn. Cozens has 27 shots on goal without a goal, which is the highest total in the league for players still seeking their first goal. Among forwards still seeking first red light of the season, Cozens is followed by Morgan Frost (24), Quinton Byfield (20), Brad Marchand (19), Nick Schmaltz (18) and A.J. Greer (18).

#15 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is healthy to start the season and has delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games. He is skating on a line with quality wingers, Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson, and is on the top power play unit, where he has produced half of his points. He erupted for 35 goals in 66 games during the 2021-2022 season but has battled shoulder injuries since and yet he still had 18 goals in 58 games over the past two seasons, so it’s not like his skill has disappeared. It’s all about whether he can stay healthy.

#16 Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk has recorded between 32 and 34 points in four consecutive seasons, but he might be off to a start that is going to propel him past those numbers. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) in seven games, with three points on the power play even though he is on Winnipeg’s second unit. His 2.57 shots on goal per game would be a career high and is reason to be encouraged for Pionk’s long-term production.

#17 It could be a good time to buy low on Steven Stamkos, who is off to a slow start in Nashville. He has just one goal and zero assists through six games, even though he has put 22 shots on goal. That shot rate (3.67 per game) would be his highest since 2011-2012. He has 0.56 individual expected goals per game which ranks tenth in the league and is an indication that more production really ought to be following. It’s just a matter of how soon it starts to happen for him.

#18 Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton apparently suffered an injury against Utah on Thursday night, so it remains to be seen how long it might keep him out of the lineup. He has been thriving, with eight points (7 G, 1 A) and 26 shots on goal in the past seven games. With so many injuries in Colorado, Colton found himself on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. If Colton is out, Joel Kiviranta might be next in line to get a look there and he does have four goals in his past three games.

#19 Montreal Canadiens right winger Juraj Slafkovsky will be out for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, a tough break considering how productive he has been. He had six points (1 G, 5 A) in six games before getting hurt, picking up his production from last season, when he finished with 32 points (14 G, 18 A) in the last 35 games. With Slafkovsky out, Kirby Dach is getting a shot on Montreal’s top line, an opportunity to break out from his own slow start, as Dach has just two assists in seven games.

#20 The New York Islanders have lost winger Anthony Duclair for more than a month due to a lower-body injury. That leaves the Islanders in a tough spot, as they are now putting Simon Holmstrom on left wing with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal on the top line. Holmstrom had 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 75 games last season, so this is a big opportunity for him, but it might be more than he can handle, which would then leave the Islanders to look elsewhere. Rookie Maxim Tsyplakov is already playing more than 17 minutes per game, so the Isles could use another skilled forward.

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MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-montreal-canadiens-team-preview/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-montreal-canadiens-team-preview/#respond Fri, 27 Sep 2024 16:00:58 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188448 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview

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MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 30: Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montreal Canadiens on November 30 2023, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

2023-24 was another rebuilding year for the Canadiens, but they did make progress, posting a 30-36-16 record -- their best showing in terms of PTS% since their surprising trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2021. Perhaps more importantly, the core for Montreal’s next window is starting to take shape. Cole Caufield (28 goals, 65 points) and Juraj Slafkovsky (20 goals, 50 points) both made significant strides last season to establish themselves along with Nick Suzuki (33 goals, 77 points) as the main pillars of the young forward group. Meanwhile, Kaiden Guhle is fast becoming a legitimate top four defenceman while Cayden Primeau and Sam Montembeault are starting to look like a capable goaltending duo. It’s a good foundation for the Canadiens to build on top of.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Speaking of that foundation, Montreal helped cement it over the summer by signing Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that will begin with the 2025-26 campaign. The Canadiens also handed Guhle a six-year, $33.3 million extension that also starts in 2025-26. Montreal had already previously locked up Suzuki and Caufield to $7.875 million and $7.85 million annual cap hits, respectively, so the team’s done an excellent job of locking up talent to team-friendly deals. In terms of big additions on the trade or unrestricted free agent markets, though, Montreal had a quiet offseason.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? It will be tough for Montreal to squeak into the playoffs in 2024-25 as a member of the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, but not impossible. Slafkovsky might take another step forward this season, a healthy Dach (he was limited to two games in 2023-24) would provide the squad with some badly needed secondary scoring. If those offensive gains are married with further growth from Primeau, then Montreal might look pretty good this season.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? However, Montreal’s depth isn’t really there yet. Sure, the addition of Patrik Laine at the deadline will help if he can stay healthy and find his 30-40 goal form. Slafkovsky, Caufield and Suzuki also give them three great scoring options, and defenceman Michael Matheson is coming off a fantastic 62-point campaign, but who else on the Canadiens is a good bet to record even 40 points? Dach? If he’s healthy, probably, but unfortunately injuries have been a recurring problem for him beyond just the 2023-24 campaign. Newhook? The potential is certainly there and might be their best bet, though the 23-year-old hasn’t done it yet, so he’s no sure thing. Keep in mind that the average team last year had 6.2 players provide at least 40 points, so even if Laine, Dach and Newhook all work out, and Montreal’s top forwards all stay healthy, that might only elevate Montreal’s offence to average. In a division as tough as the Atlantic, that might not cut it.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Perhaps defenceman Lane Hutson should be included in the conversation for Canadiens players who might hit 40 points in 2024-25. He’s coming off a fantastic campaign in which he had 15 goals and 49 points in 38 contests with Boston University before concluding things with two assists in two outings for the Canadiens. The offensive upside is absolutely there for the 20-year-old, though expectations should be tempered for his rookie campaign, in part because he’s unlikely to have a role on Montreal’s top power-play unit.

FORWARD

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 32 48 80 0.98

Back in Oct. 2021 when Suzuki had 28 goals and 82 points across 127 NHL games on his resume, Montreal decided to bet on his continued development by locking him up to an eight-year, $63 million contract that didn’t start until the 2022-23 campaign. If Suzuki had struggled to take that next step, then that contract would have looked like an overpay, but as it is, his $7.875 million cap hit is quickly becoming a steal. Suzuki set career highs last season with 33 goals and 77 points in 82 appearances. Although he finished with a minus-14 rating as a byproduct of playing for a rebuilding team, his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% were plus-5.5/5.6, which suggests Montreal performed far better when he was on the ice than off it. Perhaps that’s why he finished 13th in Selke Trophy voting for 2023-24 despite that poor plus/minus rating. It also helps that he’s made strides on the draw, winning 689 of his faceoffs for a 52.6 percent success rate. That marks the first time he’s won more faceoffs than he’s lost. The 25-year-old isn’t much of a physical presence, but that’s a mild criticism to lay on Suzuki in the face of what he brings to the table. The Ontario native figures to be an excellent top-line center for the Canadiens for many years to come.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 36 32 68 0.83

Caufield has taken a bit to fully come into his own. He was wildly inconsistent in 2021-22, though part of that can be written off as him not gelling with former coach Dominique Ducharme, and he missed nearly half of the 2022-23 campaign. By contrast, Caufield was relatively steady last season and played the full 82 games, resulting in him setting career highs with 28 goals and 65 points. He also finished with a minus-4 rating, which isn’t bad as a member of a rebuilding squad, and his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of plus-4.2/4.0 backs up the idea that Montreal was in a far better all-around position when he was on the ice. That’s despite the 5-foot-8 winger bringing very little to the table in terms of physicality. One interesting aspect of his game in 2023-24 was him firing 314 shots -- the seventh most in the league -- but having that counterbalanced by a career-worst 8.9 shooting percentage. Caufield’s bread-and-butter in terms of goals was shots right in front of the net. Outside of that, he found very little success with his shots, which is in stark contrast to 2022-23 when he had a 16.0 percent success rate on what the NHL defines as mid-range shots compared to the league average of 9.0. So it might be that luck simply wasn’t on Caufield’s side last season, which lends credence to the idea that he could reach even greater heights in 2024-25.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
68 32 31 63 0.93

Laine will get a fresh start after being acquired by Montreal from Columbus, but what will he do with that opportunity? Unfortunately for Laine, what happens next might be outside of his control. The 26-year-old is coming off an especially difficult campaign in which he was limited to 18 games due to a combination of injuries and time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. However, he also saw a decline in ice time and even served as a healthy scratch, underlining how rough his situation became in Columbus. Whatever else he is, Laine is still an amazing goal scorer, and getting him gives Montreal options. The Canadiens could go with their super line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, leaving Laine to headline the second line, or they could seek to spread out those four high-end offensive threats over two units. However, that’ll only be possible when Laine is healthy, bringing us to the part that’s out of his control. Although 2023-24 was particularly rough, Laine has a significant injury history, so it’s valid to wonder how much he’ll play. In a best-case scenario, though, would see a return to his 2017-18 form of 44 goals and 70 points.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
76 14 16 30 0.39

Montreal has some great young forwards locked up to team-friendly contracts, but that’s counterbalanced by Gallagher. He still has three campaigns left on his six-year, $39 million contract, and there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the biggest overpays in the league. Gallagher exceeded the 30-goal milestone in back-to-back campaigns in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but he hasn’t gotten more than 22 goals since, and he hasn’t even reached the 40-point mark past 2019-20. Most recently, Gallagher provided 16 goals, 31 points, a minus-24 rating and 4 PIM in 77 outings in 2023-24. Now 32 years old, the Canadiens have resigned to using him sparingly, as demonstrated by his average of 13:47 of ice time last season. At least he can do alright when Montreal picks his spots. Although he doesn’t have a size advantage at 5-foot-9, he’ll still play with an edge, and his relative CF%/FF% was a respectable plus-5.8/5.7 last season, which suggests he was an asset when on the ice despite what his horrid plus/minus might tell you. So, if you strictly look at him in the context of being a middle-six role player, then Gallagher is a perfectly serviceable option. It’s just that $6.5 million cap hit of his that sticks out like a sore thumb and given that he’s unlikely to recapture his former scoring glory, his contract will continue to be problematic.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 11 15 26 0.35

Anderson provides grit, but not a whole lot else. Sure, he did score 27 goals and 47 points across 82 contests as a member of the Blue Jackets back in 2018-19, but that season appears to have been an anomaly from an offensive standpoint. Now with Montreal, Anderson collected nine goals, 20 points, 74 PIM and 169 hits in 2023-24. Even ignoring the 2018-19 campaign, he is capable of doing more offensively than he demonstrated last year -- he finished each of 2021-22 and 2022-23 with 32 points -- so an uptick in scoring this season wouldn’t be surprising. Even if that happens, though, Montreal will be primarily paying him to utilize his size. He’ll do that primarily as a middle-six forward, but he also saw some time on a line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield last season, and there’s certainly some merit to having the big guy out there to create space for Montreal’s skilled forward, so we should see that arrangement from time-to-time again this year. The main x-factor here is Anderson’s health. The Ontario native managed to avoid any major injuries last year, but that hasn’t always been the case -- he's reached the 70-game mark just three times in his career -- so Montreal might be put in a position where they’ll have to make do without Anderson for a significant chunk of 2024-25.

Joel Armia

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
73 16 14 30 0.41

Armia had 17 goals and 25 points in 66 contests last season, and for him, that’s a rather successful campaign. He averaged just 12:22 of ice time at even strength last season while serving primarily in a bottom-six capacity, but he logged a considerable 2:53 per game on the penalty kill. Taken as a whole, Armia is a fine defensive player, but despite being 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, he’s not a major physical presence -- at least not anymore. He did surpass the 100-hit mark in three of four campaigns from 2018-19 through 2021-22, but he was credited for just 49 hits last year, so it seems the 31-year-old has pulled back from that aspect of his game. Armia has one season left on his four-year, $13.6 million contract, so it will be interesting to see if the Finnish forward does a bit better this year while fighting for his next deal, but it’s not likely to make that much of a difference. Armia will continue to provide some value for the Canadiens in a way that doesn’t show up much on the stats sheet.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 16 30 46 0.60

Montreal tried to accelerate their path to competitive hockey when they dealt two draft picks and prospect Gianni Fairbrother to Colorado in exchange for the then 22-year-old Newhook in June of 2023. Taken with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Newhook was seen as having top-six potential but wasn’t getting that opportunity in Colorado. In his first campaign with the Canadiens, Newhook missed a significant chunk of time due to an ankle injury but did show some promise when healthy, scoring 15 goals and 34 points across 55 contests. He averaged a healthy 16:56 of ice time, including 3:02 with the man advantage, which led to him recording eight power-play points. However, he didn’t often share the ice at even strength with Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield. Although it’s possible that trio of young skilled forwards will primarily play together this year while Newhook headlines the second line, it would be interesting if the Canadiens spread out their offense a bit more, and such a move would likely be to Newhook’s benefit, so it’s worth keeping an eye on those line combinations during training camp. Whatever path Montreal takes, Newhook is brimming with potential and should take a significant step forward in 2024-25 if he stays healthy.

Jake Evans

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 8 22 30 0.37

Evans is a great third or fourth-line center who can also be leaned on heavily in shorthanded situations. He provided seven goals and 28 points in 82 contests last season. He also had a minus-one rating, which isn’t bad given the rebuilding squad he’s playing for, though his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of minus-2.5/-3.2 tells a less appealing story about his play at even strength. On the plus side, he won 593 draws, leading to a respectable 52.2 percent success rate on the draw. He also blocked 65 shots, which is quite a bit for a forward. Now 28 years old, Evans is what he is. The Ontario native isn’t going to make headlines, but he will fulfill his role capably. It’s worth remembering that he’s in the final season of his three-year, $5.1 million contract, and he’s the type of depth forward contending teams take an interest in during the trade deadline. If Montreal isn’t competing for a playoff spot by that time, it would make a lot of sense for Evans to be traded.

Juraj Slafkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 25 38 63 0.77

Montreal locked up Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield to long-term contracts before they firmly established what they would become. It was a risky decision, but it paid off with each of those deals now looking awfully team-friendly, so naturally the Canadiens took the same approach by inking Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that won’t even begin until 2025-26. Selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, that $7.6 million annual cap hit might end up looking like a steal, especially with the cap starting to go up at a meaningful pace. However, that’s assuming he continues to make strides after an encouraging 2023-24 campaign. He had 20 goals, 50 points, 55 PIM, 71 blocks and 152 hits in 82 contests last season. Unlike Suzuki and Caufield, who offer plenty of skill, but not much grit, Slafkovsky has the makings of a power forward at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds. He spent most of his even-strength minutes in 2023-24 on the ice with Caufield and Suzuki, and the fact that he could serve in that physical capacity helped balance that top line. However, it would be interesting to see if Montreal experiments with breaking up that trio in the interest of better balancing the team’s offense over two lines. Outside of those three forwards and defenseman Mike Matheson, no other member of the Canadiens even reached the 40-point mark, and while that was in part due to Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach running into injury troubles, the Canadiens’ lines being so top-heavy was another factor. While playing on the top line would doubtlessly be ideal for the 20-year-old Slafkovsky, his value isn’t dependent on his linemates, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him elevate his game beyond his 2023-24 showing.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
74 15 43 58 0.78

Injuries have become a major problem for Dach. He was limited to 18 games in 2020-21, 58 contests in 2022-23 and then logged just two appearances last season before suffering a torn right ACL and MCL that required surgery. At least he’s expected to be healthy for the start of 2024-25, but history has unfortunately told us to be weary of his chances of playing a full campaign -- his career high in games still stands at just 70. If he were to stay healthy, though, the 23-year-old would likely log big minutes as a top-six forward and possibly even hold a spot on Montreal’s top power-play unit. Under those circumstances, a 50-point showing would be entirely feasible, should he stay healthy. That might not be his offensive peak either. Although he’s had a rough career thus far, Dach does have a significant amount of untapped upside, and the Alberta native is still young enough to potentially reach the promise that Chicago saw when he was taken with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. As things stand right now, though, betting on Dach to succeed would be risky. At least, he’s a manageable risk from Montreal’s perspective due to his relatively low $3,362,500 annual cap hit through 2025-26.

DEFENSE

Michael Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 12 48 60 0.74

Matheson is shaping up to be something of a late bloomer from an offensive perspective, but that’s in part because of his changing circumstances. Back during his tenures with Florida and Pittsburgh, he reached the 20-point mark four times over five campaigns while seeing limited use on the power play. Once he joined Montreal, though, the Quebec native was leaned on heavily with the man advantage and he took full advantage. Matheson recorded 11 goals and a career-high 62 points in 82 contests last season, including 28 power-play points. He also averaged 25:33 of ice time, which is the most in his career, and a big jump compared to his 18:44 per game during his two campaigns with Pittsburgh in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Those massive minutes with Montreal included an average of 2:59 on the penalty kill last year. He also took more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive ones, which further highlights that he was more than just an offensive blueliner for the Canadiens. Matheson also finished in a tie for 10th in the league with 186 blocks. Montreal will probably lean on him heavily again this season, but the Canadiens do have a crop of young defensemen who should eventually grow into bigger roles.

David Savard

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
64 6 16 22 0.34

Savard is a defensive defenseman is the back half of his career. He’s been something of a stabilizing force for the Canadiens on the blue line for the past three years, though his time with the squad might be drawing to a close as Montreal’s younger defensemen start to come into their own while Savard is entering the final campaign of his four-year, $14 million contract. The 33-year-old (34 on Oct. 22) had six goals, 24 points, 24 PIM, 163 blocks and 69 hits across 60 contests last season. He might do a little worse offensively in this campaign, and in particular he’ll probably score fewer goals after posting a 11.1 shooting percentage last season (his career average is 4.9). However, he should continue to put himself in front of a lot of shots and will be one of the Canadiens’ main penalty killers. Savard might also end up getting dealt at the trade deadline if Montreal isn’t in a playoff position. That worked out for him at the end of his previous contract with Columbus -- the Blue Jackets traded him to Tampa Bay in April 2021, and he provided the Lightning with valuable defensive depth en route to a Stanley Cup championship. If he does get moved, though, his playing time will probably decrease compared to the 20:14 of ice time he averaged in 2023-24 as stronger teams would likely prefer him in a third-pairing role.

Kaiden Guhle

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 7 23 30 0.38

Montreal’s defense is led by two veterans in Michael Matheson and David Savard, but past that is a group of young blueliners beginning to establish themselves. At the forefront of the new wave of Canadiens defensemen is Guhle, who recorded six goals, 22 points, 56 PIM, 178 blocks and 116 hits in 70 contests last season while averaging 20:51 of ice time. Not ready to shift into offseason mode after the Canadiens’ campaign ended, he joined Team Canada for the World Championship, providing a goal and five points in nine contests during the tournament. Guhle has the potential to develop into a great two-way defenseman, though he’s always likely to lean more toward the defensive side of the game. That bias towards defense over offense is clear in how Montreal has been utilizing him so far, sending him out frequently on the penalty kill, but rarely on the power play. He also had 17.2 percent of his shifts start in the defensive zone compared to just 7.5 percent in the offensive zone. Guhle is expected to continue to be used more at his own end of the ice, and he’s unlikely to secure a regular role on the power play this season unless injuries force the Canadiens into a major change. Even still, we might see a modest increase in the 22-year-old’s scoring production as he continues to get comfortable in the NHL.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
44 19 20 5 2 0.904 2.93

Cayden Primeau

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
38 17 17 4 1 0.902 3.12

The Montreal Canadiens are officially in their rebuilding era - but not in net, at least not yet. The Canadiens focused their off-season efforts on shoring up scoring, leaving the tandem of Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau - serviceable, if a bit unspectacular as a pair - to go it alone without a locker room veteran to round out the goaltending carousel. Montembeault and Primeau both sat comfortably right at the league average last season, with Primeau putting up the better raw performances while Montembeault favored better in terms of shouldering a heavier workload. And that, given how poorly the rest of the Montreal lineup performed, is about all the team could have asked for.

The loss of Carey Price as the team's rock and guiding force still stings, though, and even serviceable performances from a pair of affordable netminders felt a bit underwhelming in the aftermath of a starter who dragged even the most inconsistent of teams up into contending territory. That legacy adds an extra layer of pressure for both of next year's starters, who will be expected to at the very least replicate their solid performance from last year. The real spotlight will be on Primeau, who was once considered the heir apparent to Price's throne. But if the addition of Patrik Laine can ignite some scorepower up front for Montreal, the pressure will be on both Primeau and Montembeault to help elevate the team out of the basement as well.

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MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK: Fantasy All Star Team https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-fantasy-star-team/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-fantasy-star-team/#respond Sat, 21 Sep 2024 18:37:48 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188502 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK: Fantasy All Star Team

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New Jersey Devils right wing Timo Meier (28) . (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

When it’s time to draft or auction your fantasy hockey squad, the primary focus should be on finding value. That is a relative term and when drafting blue-chippers in the first round, there is not as much excess value to be found.

Teams most definitely need Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak and the like, but the value they provide is less likely to exceed expectations than if you happen to hit on a player in the middle rounds who suddenly becomes a first-rate scoring winger.

Think of the value provided by the likes of Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman last season. They were very good and productive players already, but Reinhart surpassed his previous career high in goals by 24, Hyman surpassed his by 18.

The objective is to find players who will exceed expectations and sometimes that process can be assisted by expectations being lowered for whatever reason.

Where does one look to find fantasy all-stars?

Good Health

Players who miss time with injuries get lost in the shuffle. If they are chronically injured, then it might be a reach to expect them to suddenly play a full season, but hockey is a physical game, and injuries happen. If it lowers expectations for a player, that just might open a window for that player to surpass those expectations.

New Opportunities

Production is the objective when seeking players and a crucial factor to consider are the opportunities being offered to the player. Are they playing on the first line? Getting first-unit power play time? Those are ideal situations. But the player who moves from a checking role to a role in the top six has greater potential value. Players who go from 12 minutes per game to 15 should be expected to score more. Same goes for the players who move from 15 to 18 minutes per game. More ice time provides more opportunity for more production.

Taking it to a New Level

When it comes to young players, especially, there is a career progression that is to be expected. It is not uniform but as these players are ascending through their careers, catching them before a breakthrough season is a great way to find excess value. Hitting on Evan Bouchard before he broke through for 82 points last season, after scoring 40 the year before, provides massive value.

Statistical Track Record Matters

When seeking players who will provide more value, don’t shy away from players who have proven their level of play, but maybe ran into a down season. Maybe it was low percentages or injuries or the wrong linemates or a bad coach; in any case, if the player has been productive in the past, it’s easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when faced with some statistical complications.

Last season’s best hits on the Fantasy All-Stars included Bouchard, Lucas Raymond, Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha, Jonathan Drouin, and Gustav Forsling.

This year, in a fit of stubbornness, I have included three players that were on last year’s Fantasy All-Star team that didn’t quite pan out. This is going to be their year!

FANTASY ALL-STARS

FORWARDS

Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas

Playing a big role on the 2023-2024 San Jose Sharks was not a great situation for Hertl, who also missed a couple of months with a knee injury. He finished the season with 38 points in 54 games, then added just one point in seven playoff games, so this was not a strong showing from Hertl, but that’s precisely why he offers potential value going into the 2024-2025 season. Hertl’s on-ice shooting percentage, playing with overmatched linemates in San Jose for most of the season, was 6.5 percent, the second-lowest mark of his career. Hertl should be healthier as he gets further away from last season’s knee surgery and he will be skating with a much better team in Vegas, which should mean an upgrade both in five-on-five linemates and during his time on the top power play unit.

Timo Meier, RW, New Jersey

When the Devils acquired Meier from the Sharks in 2022-2023, he didn’t really hit his stride for the rest of that season, and for more than half of last season. He finally started to get going in late February last season and, in the last 26 games, Meier had 18 goals and 30 points with 3.50 shots on goal per game down the stretch. Meier’s overall production (28 goals and 52 points in 69 games) was solid enough, but his finish to the campaign showed that he still has the capability to be far more than that.

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton

Returning to action following back surgery, Arvidsson had six goals and 15 points with 59 shots on goal in 18 games for the Kings. A five-time 20-goal scorer who is a consistent shot generator, Arvidsson signed in Edmonton as a free agent and is staring at an opportunity to play in the Oilers’ top six, which should mean a chance to play alongside Leon Draisaitl and the experience of playing a key role in Edmonton’s attack after spending his career with more buttoned-down teams in Nashville and Los Angeles could cause some culture shock, but it should also bring Arvidsson even more scoring opportunities.

Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)
Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Montreal

The first pick in the 2022 Draft, Slafkovsky did not do much as a rookie and started slowly in his second season. He then got a chance to skate alongside Nick Suzuki on Montreal’s top line and things started to fall into place. In his last 40 games, Slafkovsky contributed 16 goals and 35 points, this after he scored four goals and 15 points in his first 42 games, and the 20-year-old power forward started to show that he could be a consistent scoring threat. Now, it’s time for him to do it for a full season.

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa

Suspended for the first 41 games last season for a violation of the league’s gambling policy, Pinto produced a respectable nine goals and 27 points in 41 games after returning to action. However, he scored on just 8.2 percent of his shots on goal and his on-ice shooting percentage was 7.5 percent, which is on the low side as well. The Sens controlled 56.4 percent of expected goals with Pinto on the ice, the best mark on the team, so he should be given ample opportunity to build on last season’s strong finish, and maybe have the percentages tilt a little bit more in his direction.

Logan Cooley, C, Utah

The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Cooley showed promise during his rookie season in 2023-2024 and finished the season in style with nine goals and 14 points in his last 16 games. He plays at high speed and as his season progressed, Cooley started to reap the rewards of generating shots more consistently and there is still room for improvement in that aspect of the game. With increasing confidence, he will be able to generate offense and if Cooley finds his way to the top line in Utah, then his production could explode in his second season.

Tom Wilson, RW, Washington

A player whose fantasy hockey value could even exceed his real hockey value, Wilson offers a rare combination of physical play and the ability to put the puck in the net. He has had eight seasons with at least 200 hits and three 20-goal seasons. Last year, Wilson finished with 18 goals despite scoring on just 10.7 percent of his shots, his lowest rate since 2016-2017. He also had a team-low on-ice shooting percentage of 5.5 percent, the first time since 2014-2015 that he finished under 8.0 percent. Wilson should skate on the Capitals’ top line and with some positive regression in his percentages, should see a clear increase in his value this season.

Taylor Hall, LW, Chicago

Hall only played 10 games last season and is a 32-year-old winger coming off a torn ACL. That lowers expectations greatly, so it leaves room for Hall to surpass those expectations, potentially by a lot. He had a 61-point season for Boston in 2021-2022 and if he gets the opportunity to skate with Connor Bedard on Chicago’s top line, there is a path to Hall scoring like that again. While Hall has rarely been a great finisher, he consistently drives play and creates scoring chances, so Hall lining up with a finisher like Bedard could work well for both players.

William Eklund, LW, San Jose

The Sharks have been making moves to improve and that ought to bode well for Eklund, a young winger who had 15 points in his last 14 games, on his way to 45 points in his first full NHL season. That is barely scratching the surface, because Eklund’s production should continue to climb, and he has the speed and skill to pick up where he left off last season. While he will benefit from a stronger supporting cast in San Jose, the Sharks are hardly going to be over-valued after their miserable 2023-2024 season.

Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto

It is not as though Toronto Maple Leafs players tend to be underrated, but Knies is coming off a rookie season in which he managed 35 points in 80 games. He had ups and downs in his first year as a pro, but he established that he could play a physical game, recording 169 hits plus 23 hits in seven playoff games against Boston. Knies should get a look alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on Toronto’s top line, and that trip controlled nearly 67 percent of goals during five-on-five play when they were on the ice last season. That should put Knies in position for even greater offensive production this season.

Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota

The Wild centre finished second among rookies with 21 goals and fifth with 40 points. His 33 five-on-five points tied fellow Wild centre Joel Eriksson-Ek. The key for Rossi is whether he can secure regular playing time beside Kirill Kaprizov on the Wild’s top line. When they played together last season, Rossi had a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1 percent, which was substantially higher than his overall five-on-five mark of 8.1 percent. Sometimes, it’s worth finding a player who can ride the coattails of a great linemate, and Rossi could be that player.

Andre Burakovsky, RW, Seattle

After scoring just 16 points in 49 games last season, Burakovsky should be available late in all formats but there are some reasons to be optimistic that he can bounce back. One reason is that he should score on more than 7.6 percent of his shots on goal, as he did last season. Across his previous nine seasons, Burakovsky had a shooting percentage of 14.4 percent. Compounding that trouble is that Burakovsky had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1 percent. His previous low in a season was 8.6 percent, so Burakovsky is one of the leading candidates to experience positive statistical regression this season.

DEFENSE

Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber (7) (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Utah

A broken leg ruined Sergachev’s 2023-2024 season, and he finished with 19 points in 34 games for Tampa Bay after breaking through for a career-high 64 points the season before. Now that he has been traded to Utah, Sergachev should have a clearer path to first-unit power play time, where he will compete with Sean Durzi as opposed to Victor Hedman. If Sergachev is playing big minutes, as usual, there is a very good chance that he will exceed 40 points for the second time in his career.

Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida

In the two seasons before last, Ekblad had recorded a total of 39 power play points, so he is quite familiar with the role of quarterbacking the Panthers power play. With the Panthers losing Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to free agency, that opportunity could be back on the table for Ekblad, who had recorded more than half-a-point per game in four straight seasons before taking a step back last season following offseason shoulder surgery. The opportunity is substantially better than what typically awaits a defender who had 18 points in 51 games in 2023-2024.

Brock Faber, D, Minnesota

Expectations are already going to be relatively high for the Calder Trophy runner-up, but his star is still rising in Minnesota. Faber tied for second among rookies with 47 points last season, playing nearly 25 minutes per game. As a second-year player who is expected to handle the point on the Wild power play, Faber should continue to produce offensively, and since he is on his career ascent, there is some variability in just how high that offensive production could get. On top of his points and power play points, Faber also blocked 150 shots last season, so he makes a well-rounded contribution.

Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo

Acquired last season from the Colorado Avalanche in a trade for Casey Mittelstadt, Byram saw his ice time increase by a couple of minutes per game in Buffalo and he finished with career highs of 11 goals and 29 points. While he is not going to supplant Rasmus Dahlin on the Sabres’ top power play unit, Byram should have excellent opportunities otherwise and that should put him in position to score even more. His 28 even strength points last season had him tied for 34th in the league, so Byram ought to be ready to set a new career high in points in his first full season with the Sabres.

Mattias Ekholm, D, Edmonton

It is not like Ekholm is unknown. He played a huge role on the team that lost in the Stanley Cup Final, but he is more than merely a defensive conscience for Evan Bouchard. Ekholm set career highs with 11 goals and 45 points last season, with 41 of those points coming at even strength. He averaged 2.24 shots on goal per game, the third time in his career that he surpassed 2.20 shots per game and recorded a career-high 136 hits. He will continue to play a prominent role for the Oilers and last season that meant Connor McDavid recording 18 points on Ekholm’s 45 total points in 2023-2024.

Cam York, D, Philadelphia

There is risk involved in taking York, who managed just six power play points last season, but he also looks like the best candidate to play the point on Philadelphia’s power play this season. The Flyers’ power play was a disaster last season scoring a league-worst 4.35 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage, so if there is any improvement there (league average was 7.64), then York could reap some of those rewards. There is some risk, either that someone else takes over those minutes or that the Flyers remain terrible on the power play, but York still offers upside.

GOAL

Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)
Jacob Markstrom, G, New Jersey

While Markstrom is not an unknown quantity by any means, he has an excellent chance to exceed his early rankings. He had an excellent season even though the Calgary Flames did not have a strong season. Markstrom joins a Devils team coming off a down season, but they have the talent to put a strong team in front of Markstrom. The Devils were an above average team aside from goaltending last season, then they added defencemen Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon, so Markstrom is going to be in position to deliver a standout season.

Joseph Woll, G, Toronto

The 26-year-old Maple Leafs goaltender has played a grand total of 36 games in the NHL, but he has a .912 save percentage in those games, which is certainly good enough to get a longer look. He was in fine form when he got hurt last season and struggled a bit upon returning, but he earned wins in Game 5 and 6 against Boston in the playoffs, before getting hurt again. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy, but if he does, Woll can win the starting job in Toronto and that could bring significant value for fantasy managers.

 

 

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Season Wrap – Players who exceeded expectations and what we learned from them https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-season-wrap-players-exceeded-expectations-learned/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-season-wrap-players-exceeded-expectations-learned/#respond Fri, 12 Apr 2024 15:45:46 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=186062 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Season Wrap – Players who exceeded expectations and what we learned from them

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Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, reflecting on players that were much better or much worse than preseason expectations and what we might learn from those seasons. Sam Reinhart, Filip Forsberg, Brock Boeser, Vincent Trocheck, Robert Thomas and much, much more!

#1 Florida Panthers right winger Sam Reinhart was not some unknown commodity entering the 2023-2024 season. He was coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 30 goals and had a career-high 82 points in 2021-2022. He hit a new level this season, however, scoring his 54th goal on Thursday night. He is scoring on a league-leading (minimum 100 shots on goal) 24.0 percent of his shots. That percentage spike certainly helps, and Reinhart has scored a career-high 27 power play goals after scoring 16 in each of the previous two seasons. He has also scored the first five shorthanded goals of his career this season. Ultimately, this has been a career season for the 28-year-old but, given the power play production and high shooting percentage, it is not going to be easy for him to duplicate this season.

#2 It is no secret that Nashville Predators left winger Filip Forsberg is a high-end offensive player, but he had some durability issues. Prior to this season, the last time that he had played even 70 games in a NHL season was in 2016-2017. A healthy Forsberg has played 18:59 per game, his highest average time on ice since 2015-2016 and is generating 4.19 shots on goal per game, more than an additional shot per game over his 2022-2023 season. The result has been career highs of 43 goals and 89 points in 79 games. He has thrived on a line with offseason additions Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. O’Reilly, coming off a season in which he had 30 points in 53 games, has 66 points (26 G, 40 A) in 79 games, the second highest point total of his career. Nyquist, who has 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 51 games for Columbus and Minnesota last season, has a career-high 72 points (22 G, 50 A) in 79 games.

#3 A season ago, Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser scored 18 goals in 74 games, the lowest per-game goal rate of his NHL career. He had also gone through personal turmoil, following the death of his father in May of 2022, and was open to the idea of moving on from Vancouver. The Canucks stuck with Boeser and has been paired primarily with J.T. Miller and a rotating cast of other linemates, but the result has been career highs of 40 goals and 73 points while scoring on a career-high 19.6 percent of his shots.

#4 New York Rangers centre Vincent Trocheck has long been a valuable fantasy performer, in part because he is a centre who hits – this is the third straight season in which he recorded at least 170 hits. Trocheck has played more than 21 minutes per game this season and has recorded a career-high 76 points (25 G, 51 A) in 80 games.

#5 Prior to this season, St. Louis Blues centre Robert Thomas was known as a pass-first playmaker and while that still remained a big part of his game, Thomas started to shoot the puck more and that led him to career highs of 25 goals and 83 points. It’s the first season in which Thomas has recorded more than two shots on goal per game and he has played a career-high 21 minutes per game. This is the second season of the 24-year-old’s career in which he has topped a point per game and, in his prime, should be expected to continue scoring in the years to come.

#6 Ever since he scored 85 points (22 G, 63 A) in 82 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, New York Islanders forward Mathew Barzal has been a dangerous offensive threat, though on a tight-checking Islanders team, that hasn’t always resulted in big point production. This season, Barzal shifted to right wing and the result has been a career-high 23 goals and 80 points in 78 games. He is generating 3.00 shots on goal per game for the first time in his career and has hit the 80-point mark despite scoring on just 9.8 percent of his shots. His on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4 percent is also below his career average, so there is still another level out there for Barzal if he can build on increased shot rates and then hit a season in which the percentages start to break in his direction.

#7 Montreal Canadiens centre Nick Suzuki has improved his production every season that he has been in the NHL, scoring 0.58 points per game as a rookie in 2019-2020, but steadily increasing that rate to hit 0.96 points per game this season, producing 76 points (33 G 43 A) in 79 games. The second half of the season has also offered a great growth opportunity for second-year winger Juraj Slafkovsky, who has joined Suzuki and Cole Caufield on Montreal’s top line. In 30 games since the All-Star break, Slafkovsky has tallied 28 points (12 G, 16 A) with 76 shots on goal.

#8 When Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis went from 40 points (17 G, 23 A) in 68 games as a rookie in 2021-2022 to 39 points (14 G, 25 A) in 82 games last season, it looked like he had stalled somewhat in his second NHL season. Not so fast. Jarvis had gone from scoring on 15.5 percent of his shots as a rookie to just 7.5 percent last season. This season, Jarvis is playing a career-high 18:47 per game and is scoring on a career best 17.3 percent of his shots, leading him to 63 points (30 G, 33 A). The 22-year-old spends a lot of time on Sebastian Aho’s wing and, given his breakthrough season, that should continue for many more years.

#9 Anaheim Ducks left winger Frank Vatrano has always been able to generate shots and he did so even when playing a depth role earlier in his career. This season, Vatrano has logged more than 18 minutes per game for the Ducks, generating 3.37 shots on goal per game, the first time in his career than Vatrano has averaged more than three shots on goal per game. That has led Vatrano to career highs of 33 goals and 56 points.

#10 Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston is just 20-year-old, in his second season after scoring 24 goals and 41 points as a rookie in 2022-2023. He followed that up with a significant step forward in his sophomore season. Johnston’s ice time is up nearly a minute-and-a-half per game, but he has generated more than 2.60 shots on goal per game after he had 1.95 per game as a rookie, and Johnston has vaulted to 32 goals and 65 points in his second NHL season.

#11 After starting his career with productive seasons in Calgary, veteran centre Sean Monahan endured a three-year stretch during which he produced 68 points (24 G, 44 A) in 140 games. He had been bothered by hip injuries and it was looking like a once promising career might be fading away before Monahan even hit 30 years of age. In good health this season, Monahan has become a productive scoring centre once again. He has 56 points (24 G, 32 A) in 80 games, his most points in a season since 2018-2019.

#12 In 2021-2022, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore had career highs of 17 goals and 48 points. He was a reliable middle six winger with good speed but was not counted on to produce a ton offensively. Expectations were lowered when he scored 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 59 games last season. This season, Moore has played nearly 18 minutes per game and is averaging more than three shots on goal per game for the first time in his career. As a result, the 29-year-old has delivered 55 points (30 G, 25 A) in 79 games.

#13 When the Calgary Flames acquired Yegor Sharangovich from the New Jersey Devils in the Tyler Toffoli trade, expectations were modest. After all, Sharangovich has managed 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 75 games the previous season. The 25-year-old thrived in Calgary, playing more than 17 minutes per game, and putting up 57 points (30 G, 27 A) in 78 games. He has scored on 17.9 percent of his shots, which is a career high and probably unsustainable, making it easy enough to predict regression for Sharangovich next season.

#14 While there were expectations surrounding Jonathan Drouin following his move to Colorado, it was hard to know what would constitute a successful season from the enigmatic winger. Drouin had 87 points (17 G, 70 A) in 163 games over the previous four seasons but getting reunited with former junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon has had an amazing effect on Drouin, as he has hit a career high 56 points (19 G, 37 A) in 76 games.

#15 The first overall pick in the 2020 Draft, New York Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere had been modestly productive in his first three NHL seasons, hitting a career-high of 39 points (16 G, 23 A) in 2022-2023. This season, the 22-year-old has seen his ice time increase by nearly two minutes per game while his per-game shot rate has jumped by one per game. Playing most of the season with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck has paid off in a big way for Lafreniere, who has hit career highs with 27 goals and 56 points.

#16 Following a two-season stretch in which he had a .897 save percentage in 98 appearances, St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington came into the 2023-2024 season with few expectations placed upon him. Binnington responded by posting a .911 save percentage in 55 games this season and, with 28 wins, he was a big reason for the Blues to remain in the playoff hunt as long as they did.

#17 At 36-years-old, coming off a down season in Ottawa, Cam Talbot took the starting job with the Los Angeles Kings and ran with it. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but a .916 save percentage with 26 wins in 52 games has been a major boost for the Kings and has given Talbot far more fantasy value than anyone had a right to expect. The key to goaltenders is that there might be a handful of reliable options year after year, but among the rest, it will suddenly be guys like Binnington and Talbot who can unexpectedly alter the fate of your fantasy team.

#18 At the start of the season, the Buffalo Sabres gave rookie Devon Levi a good chance to take the starting job out of training camp and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had to bide his time, watching and waiting while Levi faltered. When the Sabres turned to Luukkonen, he delivered a .910 save percentage with 27 wins in 53 games. The 25-year-old has looked every bit like a starting goaltender, and now he is the one that will enter next season as the starter.

#19 The Arizona Coyotes entered the season with Karel Vejmelka in the starting goaltender role, but as Vejmelka struggled, Connor Ingram was delivering quality starts and he has taken over the starting job, posting a .909 save percentage with 22 wins in 48 games. The difficulty of getting wins for Arizona has put a limit on Ingram’s fantasy appeal, but he was barely relevant in fantasy terms before this season and is now much more interesting.

#20 Washington Capitals goaltender Charlie Lindgren played in 31 games last season, a new career high. As the Capitals have tried to remain in the playoff race, despite a terrible goal differential, Lindgren has taken the starting job in the Capitals’ crease. Lingren has a .908 save percentage with 22 wins in 47 games.

 

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NHL: BELL – Slafkovsky and the Burden of Being a First Overall Draft Pick https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-bell-slafkovsky-burden-draft-pick/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-bell-slafkovsky-burden-draft-pick/#respond Tue, 27 Feb 2024 15:00:11 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185523 Read More... from NHL: BELL – Slafkovsky and the Burden of Being a First Overall Draft Pick

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MONTREAL, QC - FEBRUARY 11: Montreal Canadiens left wing Juraj Slafkovsky (20) plays the puck during the St. Louis Blues versus the Montreal Canadiens game on February 11, 2024, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

When the Montreal Canadiens called Juraj Slafkovsky’s name with the first overall selection of the 2022 NHL Draft, they immediately placed the weight of being the number one player taken in that draft class. 

For the rest of Slafkovsky’s career, he will carry that burden and will always be held to a higher standard compared to every other player in the 2022 class. As well, he’ll be compared to other first-overall picks from other classes. 

Since the day he was drafted, Slafkovsky and the Canadiens’ choice has been questioned. Why not Shane Wright, who was widely considered the class's top prospect? Or Logan Cooley, who was (and is) considered to be the most skilled player in the class, arguably? That carried into his rookie season, where Slafkovsky managed just 10 points (four goals, six assists) in 39 games, and into the start of the 2023-24 season as well. Did the Habs make the wrong choice?

This is going to be a discussion that doesn’t go away for years to come, especially as more 2022-drafted prospects break into the league and are measured against the yardstick that is Slafkovsky. 

There’s no question that in Slafkovsky’s draft year, the hulking winger turned scout’s heads. He played the majority of the season in the Liiga with TPS and was a standout for the Men’s National team at both the World Championships and the Olympics. He won MVP of the Olympics, leading the event in points and helping Slovakia to a bronze medal. He led all U20 players in points at the World Championships and was named a top three player on the team. For his efforts, which also included a Hlinka Gretzky silver medal and a Liiga second-place finish, he was named the Slovakian Player of the Year. 

Here’s an excerpt from the McKeen’s 2022 NHL Draft Guide from scout Chapin Landvogt on Slafkovsky’s game:

“A big, powerful skater who has already proven himself at the men’s level like no other player in this draft, Slafkovsky is not only believed to be one of the best overall players whatsoever in this draft but universally seen as ready to step right into an NHL line-up. Measuring 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, Slafkovsky has the size and physical demeanour most teams can only dream of. And he combines all this with some of the best skill and goal-scoring prowess this draft has to offer.”

Reading that, and taking a look at his draft year resume, is it really surprising that the Canadiens selected him? They had proof that the left winger could not only handle himself while playing under tremendous pressure but also excel and exceed expectations. 

Wright didn’t have the year that was expected of him, with some consistency issues in regards to his competitiveness raising flags. This was not an issue for Slafkovsky. With Cooley, there were slight questions around his size at 5-foot-10 and whether or not he’d be able to bring a finishing touch to the NHL level or fall into more of a playmaker role (which may be a fair assessment still in his rookie season with the Arizona Coyotes). But, both of these were not flags with Slafkovsky.

So, Slafkovsky very much had an argument to be the first player off the board in 2022. The fact that he wasn’t the consensus number one has nothing to do with Slafkovsky as an individual player, but as a draft class as a whole. The 2022 group was a below-average draft class. It was lacking that sure-fire, franchise, or elite number-one prospect. It could even be argued that is was lacking two top tiers found in many (not all) classes. 

Herein lies another problem for Slafkovky’s perfect storm of expectations: comparing first-overall picks. Not including 2023’s Connor Bedard just yet, the previous five forwards drafted first overall were Slafkovsky, Alexis Lafreniere (2020), Jack Hughes (2019), Nico Hischier (2017), and Auston Matthews (2016). All five stepped right into the NHL the year after being drafted. 

The problem though, is that only Slafkovsky and Lafreniere are wingers. And then, Lafreniere’s rookie season was his 19-year-old season whereas Slafkovsky’s was his 18-year-old season. How can you compare Hughes to Slafkovsky? Lafreniere to Slafkovsky? They aren’t on a level playing field - despite all three earning criticism in their early days in the NHL.

However, if you do start to compare, it does get quite interesting. Through Lafreniere’s first 100 NHL games (a reasonable sample size), he had 33 points (21 goals, 12 assists) and 0.33 points per game. Slafkovksy, now at 96 NHL games, has 40 points (16 goals, 24 assists) and 0.42 points per game. Both players are now on the rise in the 2023-24 season, truly coming into their own. Let’s add in Hughes too - through his first 96 games? 37 points (14 goals, 23 assists) for 0.39 points per game. Huh.

Slafkovsky’s in an interesting situation. It’s very rare for an 18-year-old winger to break into the NHL. According to Michael Clifford from EP Rinkside, over the last 10 seasons, the list of wingers to do that includes Zach Benson this season, Andrei Svechnikov, David Pasternak (who started his season in the AHL), Kaapo Kakko, and Patrik Laine. That’s it. It’s typically centremen or defenders that make that early jump. Making it even more impressive, the quality of the NHL game has been improving over the years, making it even more difficult for young players to not only break into the league but succeed there. 

This is shown in player age curves, such as this article from Evolving Wild explains on Hockey Graphs, and I would expect this to be a steeper rise now, seven years later. But even here, we can see a steep incline for forwards until players are approximately 21 (Slafkovsky is still just 19), and that still increases until approximately 26 years old. Slafkovsky is still on the upswing here and likely will be for the next two seasons before he even begins to enter his prime.

Did the Habs rush him? I’d say yes. I do believe that it would have benefitted him to spend a season in the AHL, succeed, and start in the NHL this season. I think that would have been huge for his confidence, for settling into the transition from Europe to North America, and would have allowed him to settle without major expectations in year one. As a first-overall pick though, there was pressure and expectations for him to be able to step right into the NHL. And now that he’s there, I do agree with the decision to not send him down, and that would only place more pressure on him to earn his promotion and could be quite damaging to his confidence.

Regardless, we are starting to see the player Slafkovsky will be. Remember, he’s just 19. Players are still getting drafted at 19 years old, never mind playing on the top line in one of the biggest markets of the NHL.

This season, and especially as of late, Slafkovsky’s been on a tear. He recently wrapped up an eight-game point streak, racking up 12 points (six goals, six assists). Slafkosky’s ability to be a leader on the Canadiens roster in the transition game has been huge, and a tremendous improvement from his rookie season. He’s playing more confidently, getting off the wall, leading entries, and taking charge of the offensive rush. 

What stands out to me most though, is the strides made in his decision making. He’s picking his shots better, cutting in to get a shot off from the inside versus sticking to the perimeter. Even his passes, he’s timing them well to draw defenders in, to pull goaltenders out of position, and to give his teammates the best chance to finish. Just take a look at the comparison in shots from his rookie season and this season (2022-23 on the left, 2023-24 on the right): 

On top of simply having a much bigger sample size, Slafkovsky’s picking his shots better. That concentration around the net front is a massive difference from last year, and the weight of shots coming from the inside is greater. Don’t be surprised to see this continue to improve and the Slovakian to start putting up impressive goal totals in the coming years.

Now, this is a bit of a text-heavy piece, but I do want to show the improvement that Slafkovsky’s taken thus far in his career with two clips that I would consider a broad attempt to summarize his two seasons. First, this video from his rookie year:

 

Slafkovsky gets the pass to enter the zone, but rather than attacking with speed or even dumping the puck, you can see the wheels turning as he tries to see if a pass is available. He’s reacting to the play around him rather than dictating play himself. As well, both when he receives the pass and in the offensive zone, watch his head. He’s staring down at the puck rather than scanning the ice, where he could notice that a rim around the boards would likely reach Nick Suzuki on the opposite side. This is a player who is not confident in his play. Jacob Trouba is easily able to knock the puck away and end the attack. 

But now, watch this clip from this season:

This is almost the same play as the last clip. Slafkovsky gets the pass to gain the zone and again doesn’t attack with speed. But this time, his head is up and scanning the entire way in and even with the defender on him and closing in, holds the puck away and times his rim to Suzuki perfectly to not just gain the zone but maintain it. The comparison in these two clips shows that Slafkovsky is getting comfortable in the NHL and is building confidence. That’s something that the league should be nervous about.

Alright, I lied. There’s one more clip I want to show here, building off this growth in confidence as well as his timing:

Again, this is a very different player from that first clip. Slafkovsky plays the bumper on the power play for the Canadiens (which might be obvious if you look closely at his shot map this year). In this clip, he gets the pass along the wall (again, notice that his head is up the whole time scanning) and his job here is to a) manipulate the defenders and goaltender to get them out of position and b) distribute the puck. Slafkovksy turns, and patiently approaches the net and middle, making it seem like a shot is coming or a pass below the goal line. This pulls St. Louis Blues’ goaltender Jordan Binnington closer to his post and clears Blues #47’s stick out of the lane so that he can fire a perfect cross-slot pass to - once again - Suzuki for a goal.

To summarize, Slafkovsky is too early in his career to be judged. He has unrealistic expectations attached to him due to being the first overall pick, despite no player from the 2022 class likely being a first overall in another year’s draft class. He’s still a teenager years away from his prime and he’s playing a position that often takes longer to develop and reach the NHL. However, the strides forward are happening before our eyes and at an impressive rate. Stay patient and enjoy the climb - the best is yet to come.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-quinton-byfield-continuing-produce-bobby-mcmann-contributor-philipp-kurashev-benefiting-bedard-return-much-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-quinton-byfield-continuing-produce-bobby-mcmann-contributor-philipp-kurashev-benefiting-bedard-return-much-more/#respond Fri, 23 Feb 2024 16:42:21 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185483 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more!

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PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 30: Los Angeles Kings Center Quinton Byfield (55) looks on during the second period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Los Angeles Kings on January 30, 2022, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more!

#1 Drafted second overall by the Los Angeles Kings in 2020, Quinton Byfield took some time to get up to speed in the National Hockey League. Coming into this season, he had 8 goals and 33 points in 99 games, so he was not exactly busting down the door to stardom. He did start to show potential last season, though, and the Kings gave him a lot of ice time on the top line to start this season, skating on a line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. More recently, Byfield has moved down the depth chart to join Pierre-Luc Dubois and Byfield continues to produce. In his past 10 games, Byfield has tallied 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 25 shots on goal.

#2 Throwing Byfield with Pierre-Luc Dubois offers a chance for Dubois to shake out of his season-long slump. Since the Kings replaced Todd McLellan with Jim Hiller as head coach, Dubois has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in seven games. That improved production comes on the heels of Dubois managing just one point (1 G, 0 A) in the previous eight games.

#3 A 27-year-old winger who had played all of 10 games in the NHL prior to this season, Bobby McMann has become an unlikely contributor for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In his first 26 games for the Maple Leafs this season, McMann had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) but it was understandable, he played less than 10 minutes in 18 of those 26 games. McMann broke through on February 13, recording a hat trick in a 4-1 win against St. Louis and that earned him a bump up the depth chart. He has most recently found himself on a line with John Tavares and Nick Robertson and has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in the past six games. Suddenly, McMann is changing the perception of what he might be able to offer as an NHL player, from fringe NHLer to possible top-six winger.

#4 Getting Connor Bedard back in the lineup has helped Chicago Blackhawks forward Philipp Kurashev who has eight points (1 G, 7 A) in seven games since the All-Star break, which includes four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games since Bedard returned from his broken jaw. Prior to the break, Kurashev had just two points (1 G, 1 A) during a 14-game stretch, and yet he is still second on the Blackhawks in scoring with 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 50 games.

#5 Columbus’ All-Star representative this season, centre Boone Jenner has emerged from the break on a five-game point streak, during which he has accrued eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal. Jenner juices up his fantasy appeal with physical play, too, and has 17 hits in those five games. He is skating between Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Roslovic, both of whom are also picking up the pace offensively. Gaudreau is in full set-up mode lately, with 15 points (1 G, 14 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Roslovic has upped his production more recently, with five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal during a four-game point streak which started when he joined Jenner and Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line.

#6 Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi got off to a strong start with his new club, contributing 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 25 games, but he did miss some time due to injury and went through a six-game scoreless drought around the All-Star break. He’s making up for it, though, with eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 12 shots on goal during a three-game point streak. Vilardi is skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, which is a pretty great opportunity for a young player looking to become a more consistent scoring threat.

#7 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 1-0 win against Florida, it was only the third time in the past 16 games that Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis did not record a point. He has 18 points (4 G, 14 A) and 34 shots on goal in that span, giving him a career-high 46 points in 56 games. Jarvis isn’t the only Hurricanes winger who has picked up his scoring pace. Martin Necas has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 50 shots on goal in his past 14 games.

#8 The third pick in the 2021 Draft, Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish has had some ups and downs in his second NHL season, but his talent is undeniable, and he does have seven points in his past four games. While fantasy managers, especially those in banger leagues, might love that McTavish has 30 penalty minutes in his past 10 games, those frequent trips to the penalty box could start to cost him ice time.

#9 Florida Panthers centre Anton Lundell tallied 44 points as a rookie in 2021-2022 and has not been able to match that pace since, in part because his shooting percentage has fallen off, from 14.4 percent two seasons ago to 7.2 percent this season. Nevertheless, Lundell has shown some signs of life offensively, producing six points (4 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in his past five games. The Panthers have been excellent this season, and they have not received a huge contribution from Lundell, so if he can pick up the pace down the stretch, that would go a long way for a team that is a Stanley Cup contender.

#10 Minnesota Wild rookie centre Marco Rossi has moved into a tie with teammate Brock Faber as the second leading rookie scorer in the league behind Chicago’s Connor Bedard, who has 39 points (17 G, 22 A) in 43 games. Rossi has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past five games, which gets him to 33 points (17 G, 16 A) in 56 games. Rossi’s ice time is down, so tread carefully about adding him now. His improved scoring pace does offer hope that Rossi will have a bigger role both in the near and more distant future.

#11 New York Rangers right winger Kaapo Kakko missed nearly two months of action but is starting to get back into the groove. In his past six games, the 23-year-old forward has put up five points (2 G, 3 A) along with 12 shots on goal. It may be too soon to offer a full-throated recommendation for Kakko, but it’s worth keeping an eye on him. Progress has been gradual, and he is already in his fifth NHL season, but he has flashed potential.

#12 Consistent offensive production does not come easily for Buffalo Sabres winger Jordan Greenway, who scored a career high 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 56 games for the Minnesota Wild during the 2020-2021 season. However, every now and then, he heats up and suddenly becomes an intriguing fantasy option, even if it is for short-term purposes. Over the past month, Greenway has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in 10 games. Injuries have opened the door for Greenway to get more ice time in Buffalo and he has landed on the second line, alongside Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens, two skilled players who can help extend Greenway’s offensive good fortune.

#13 At this stage of his career, 38-year-old Corey Perry tends to not offer a lot of fantasy value during the regular season. He plays on the lower half of the depth chart and while he contributes some, it is usually only enough for consideration in the deepest of leagues. While all of that may be true, Perry does have four points (3 G, 1 A) with eight shots on goal and 16 penalty minutes in the past four games and that might warrant a little bit more attention. He is getting second unit power play time and is skating with Dylan Holloway and Mattias Janmark at evens.

#14 Goaltending has been a question mark for many teams this season and those questions have lingered in Carolina for much of the season. The answer may be found within the Hurricanes’ own dressing room, as Pyotr Kochetkov has hit a hot streak and that might be enough to solidify the play in Carolina’s crease, at least for the time being. After a sparkling 44-save shutout Thursday against Florida, Kochetkov has a .969 save percentage across his past four starts. Of course, in his previous four appearances, Kochetkov’s save percentage was a ghastly .851, so he has been offering quite the thrill ride with plenty of ups and downs.

#15 One of the primary challenges when seeking fantasy hockey answers in goal is finding goaltenders that play enough. St. Louis Blues backup goaltender Joel Hofer, for example, has been excellent lately with a .928 save percentage across his past nine starts, but that goes back to before Christmas, so Hofer still offers value in deeper leagues. If something were to happen that would give him a greater share of the starts in St. Louis, the 23-year-old could see his value soar.

#16 After lighting up the Vancouver Canucks for four points (1 G, 3 A) in Thursday’s victory, Seattle Kraken centre Jared McCann has a six-game point streak and has put up 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 44 shots on goal in his past 15 games. McCann is coming off a career-best season in which he scored 40 goals and 70 points, but his recent production is getting him back into that stratosphere again.

#17 In his past seven games, Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar has zero points. This stretch is the first time – in his career! – that he has gone more than three consecutive games without recording a point. It’s not like this is no reason to trade Makar. He has 20 shots on goal in those seven games and has 60 points (13 G, 47 A) in 53 games this season, but an unprecedented slump from the most prolific scoring defenceman in the league at least bears watching.

#18 Since the All-Star break, the leaders in all situations expected goals: Nico Hischier (5.57), Nathan MacKinnon (5.54), Auston Matthews (5.21), Chris Kreider (4.91), J.T. Miller (4.88), Kirill Kaprizov (4.66), Zach Hyman (4.55), Jack Hughes (4.45), Brady Tkachuk (4.37), Joel Eriksson Ek (4.32), Boone Jenner (4.25), Kyle Palmieri (4.25), Evander Kane (4.23), Nazem Kadri (4.22), and Cole Caufield (4.18).  While these are a lot of expected names, it’s interesting to see Hischier at the top of the list, and players like Jenner, Palmieri, and Kane are likely higher than their overall production might suggest.

#19 There are 36 players that have recorded at least seven power-play points since January 1. That list includes Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Jonathan Huberdeau (7), Frank Vatrano (7), Morgan Frost (7), and Jake Neighbours (7). Again, a lot of the names at the top of the list are to be expected – Matthew Tkachuk leads with 14 five-on-four points in 2024 – but some less established players are starting to make a difference with the man advantage, too.

#20 With Mark Stone injured, joining Jack Eichel on the shelf, the Vegas Golden Knights are getting rather thin up front, so maybe consider Michael Amadio as a short-term fix. The 27-year-old forward has scored a goal in four of the past five games, putting a dozen shots on goal while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game. Amadio finished with a career-high 27 points (16 G, 11 A) in 67 games last season and has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 50 games this season, so he is not necessarily a long-term answer but, right now, he has an opportunity to play a more significant role.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Juraj Slafkovsky is stepping up for the Canadiens, Shane Pinto is making his mark for the Senators, Vikor Arvidsson returns to the Kings, the Penguins lose Jake Guentzel, and much, much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-juraj-slafkovsky-stepping-canadiens-shane-pinto-making-mark-senators-vikor-arvidsson-returns-kings-penguins-lose-jake-guentzel-much-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-juraj-slafkovsky-stepping-canadiens-shane-pinto-making-mark-senators-vikor-arvidsson-returns-kings-penguins-lose-jake-guentzel-much-more/#respond Fri, 16 Feb 2024 18:47:42 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185475 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Juraj Slafkovsky is stepping up for the Canadiens, Shane Pinto is making his mark for the Senators, Vikor Arvidsson returns to the Kings, the Penguins lose Jake Guentzel, and much, much more!

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MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 30: Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montreal Canadiens on November 30 2023, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Juraj Slafkovsky is stepping up for the Canadiens, Shane Pinto is making his mark for the Senators, Viktor Arvidsson returns to the Kings, the Penguins lose Jake Guentzel, and much, much more!

#1 Montreal Canadiens sophomore winger Juraj Slafkovsky took a lot of flak for a rookie season in which he finished with 10 points in 39 games. It’s not as though the 19-year-old man-child is suddenly a star, but there are very encouraging signs, not least of all is that he is on a seven-game point streak. Skating on Montreal’s top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, Slafkovsky has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal during the streak and he is now getting played like a primetime player, with more than 19 minutes of ice time in each of his past four games.

#2 After missing the first half of the season due to a suspension for gambling, Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto has made an immediate difference, producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal. Pinto’s ice time and shot rate have increased and, in addition to a spot on the top power play unit, he is skating on a line at even strength with Ridly Greig and Vladimir Tarasenko, so Pinto has some skill to support his offensive endeavours.

#3 Veteran Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson is a five-time 20-goal scorer who has made his way back into the lineup after missing 50 games while he recovered from back surgery. He is back with Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault as his linemates and had five shots on goal in his season debut Thursday night at New Jersey. Over the past three seasons, Arvidsson has averaged 10.85 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which ranks ninth among skaters to play at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel is expected to miss up to four weeks with an upper-body injury after taking a hit from Florida Panthers defenceman Niko Mikkola Wednesday night. Before Thursday night’s action, Guentzel was tied with Sidney Crosby for the scoring lead on the Penguins, as both had 52 points in 50 games. With Guentzel out, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell are handling the wings on Pittsburgh’s top line with Crosby while Reilly Smith gets a spot on the Penguins’ first power play unit. Rust has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 34 shots on goal in his past 11 games, Rakell is mired in a 12-game goalless drought but did have two assists in Thursday’s win at Chicago. Smith scored a goal Thursday at Chicago but before that had one point (1 G, 0 A) in the previous 10 games.

#5 Minnesota Wild centre Joel Eriksson Ek has finished in the top ten of Selke Trophy voting for three straight seasons and is now having the best offensive season of his career. Since January 15, Eriksson Ek has tallied 16 points (9 G, 7 A) with 37 shots on goal in 11 games. He is skating on Minnesota’s top line with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy and has already scored 24 goals, two away from his career high. Eriksson Ek is averaging a career high 3.70 shots per game, which is a jump of more than half a shot per game from last season, when he had his previous career high of 3.17 shots per game.

#6 St. Louis Blues winger Jake Neighbours continues to shine. He picked up three points in Thursday’s win over Edmonton, giving him nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past eight games. Neighbours is skating on the Blues’ second line, with Brayden Schenn and Kasperi Kapanen, but has moved to the top power play unit and five of those nine points have come via the man advantage.

#7 When Calgary Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau saw his point total drop from a career high 115 points in 2021-2022 down to 55 points last season, it was hard to imagine it getting much worse but, with 32 points in 53 games, Huberdeau is on pace for even fewer points this season. To his credit, the veteran winger does appear to be snapping out of his season-long funk. Since January 6, Huberdeau has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 15 games, and is skating on Calgary’s top line with newcomer Andrei Kuzmenko and Yegor Sharangovich.

#8 Upon returning from a neck injury, Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen managed just one assist in his first six games back in the lineup. In the past two games, though, Lehkonen has put up six points (3 G, 3 A). He had career highs of 21 goals and 51 points in 64 games last season, so there are expectations for Lehkonen to be an offensive contributor and it’s starting to look like he might be up for that challenge once again.

#9 After going through some lean stretches earlier in the season, Edmonton Oilers winger Evander Kane appears to be pulling it together. He has produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 10 games. That is dramatically better than the three points (2 G, 1 A) that he had produced in his previous 14 games. Kane is skating on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Dylan Holloway, and it appears to be working.

#10 Known more for his checking prowess, Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli is starting to make his presence felt on the offensive end as well. Over the past month, Cirelli has played 11 games, producing 13 points (4 G, 9 A) with 21 shots on goal. He has a good thing going with linemates Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel. Hagel has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 24 shots on goal during an eight-game point streak.

#11 It was among the safer bets entering the season that Florida Panthers blueliner Brandon Montour would run into the regression monster after scoring a career high 73 points (16 G, 57 A) last season. It was the first time in his career he had surpassed 40 points in a season and Montour was recovering from shoulder surgery at the start of the season, so he did not play until mid-November. In his past dozen games, Montour has four points (1 G, 3 A) to go with 35 shots on goal. While the point total is nothing special, it’s that shot rate that makes Montour an intriguing buy-low option right now because he is still playing a lot and getting chances, they just haven’t been leading to goals in the same way that they did last season.

#12 Winnipeg Jets sniper Kyle Connor suffered a knee injury on December 10, and it caused him to miss five weeks of action. He scored in his first game back and since then has managed one point (1 G, 0 A) with 29 shots on goal in the past eight games. That shot rate is very encouraging, and Connor is averaging 3.91 shots per game, the second highest rate of his career, so it should be just a matter of time before pucks start finding the net when Connor is on the ice.

#13 Last season, it appeared that Buffalo Sabres centre Tage Thompson had made the leap to stardom. He set career highs with 47 goals and 94 points and seemed well on his way to being an unstoppable force, a 6-foot-6 centre who could really fire the puck. This season has been a step back and Thompson has just two points (1 G, 1 A) and 36 shots on goal in his past 11 games. Like Connor, the shot rate offers reason to be hopeful for Thompson to produce down the stretch, but some of Thompson’s decline is just based on regression of percentages, both his own shooting percentage, dropping from 15.9 percent to 10.3 percent this season and his five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage, which has dropped from 10.8 percent last season to 7.6 percent this season.

#14 Since returning to the Toronto Maple Leafs in mid-January, after a couple of weeks trying to regain his confidence, goaltender Ilya Samsonov has won six of eight starts and has a .917 save percentage. A player that fantasy managers could not shed fast enough – he started the season with a .862 save percentage in his first 15 appearances – Samsonov has suddenly rebounded and is giving the Maple Leafs a quality option in goal.

#15 One of my favourites to target in deep or banger leagues, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse has run into hard times over the past month, managing two points (2 G, 0 A) with 19 shots on goal in 11 games. Crouse still gets consistent ice time, skating on Arizona’s second line along with second-unit power play time, and he is on pace to set a career high in goals, but his value is at a relative low point.

#16 Although he is no longer skating on Dallas’ top line, after a brief bump up the depth chart, second-year centre Wyatt Johnston continues to make his mark for the Stars. After putting up four points in Dallas’ 9-2 win at Nashville on Thursday, Johnston has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 34 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He is skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Ty Dellandrea. For the record, Johnston has played more than 99 five-on-five minutes with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on the Stars’ top line and they controlled 82.5 percent of expected goals, the best rate for any trio that has played at least 50 five-on-five minutes together.

#17 Veteran Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano is enjoying his most productive season, playing a career high 18:15 per game. After a three-point night in Ottawa on Thursday, Vatrano has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 14 games and is now one goal away from his career high of 24 goals, set in 2018-2019. Not only does Vatrano have quality linemates, Mason McTavish and Troy Terry, at even strength, but the sturdy winger is on Anaheim’s top power play unit, too.

#18 Often a premier fantasy hockey forward, especially in banger leagues, Washington Capitals right winger Tom Wilson is stuck in a terrible slump. In the past 23 games, Wilson has just three points (2 G, 1 A) and 42 shots on goal. This is despite averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. Some of this is related to Washington’s lack of proven playmakers up front, especially with centres Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov unavailable, but Wilson had 10 goals and 18 points with 82 shots on goal in his first 28 games, so this decline has been stark and makes it easy enough for fantasy managers to cut him loose.

#19 After the Boston Bruins acquired Tyler Bertuzzi last season, he produced 26 points (9 G, 17 A) in 28 games, covering the regular season and first round of the playoffs. That kind of production made him a very appealing free agent addition for the Toronto Maple Leafs but they are not getting that kind of offensive production. Bertuzzi has gone 19 straight games without a goal, managing seven assists and 30 shots on goal in that span.

#20 When the Winnipeg Jets acquired Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens, there was some expectation that Monahan and second year forward Cole Perfetti would form a second scoring line for the Jets. Perfetti was slumping before the deal, with one assist in the seven games before Monahan arrived and has now gone four games without a point since Winnipeg made the move. Perfetti had 29 points in 40 games before this slump, so it’s not like he is incapable of providing the secondary offense that Winnipeg needs, but it has gone missing for the past month.

 

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