Kevin Labanc – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:05:11 +0000

Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.

What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.

What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.

What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.

Forwards

Tomas Hertl

A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.

Logan Couture

The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.

Anthony Duclair

An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20^th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.

Mike Hoffman

A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.

Mikael Granlund

Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.

Alexander Barabanov

The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.

Kevin Labanc

Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.

Filip Zadina

The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.

Fabian Zetterlund

Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.

Nico Sturm

A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.

Defense

Mario Ferraro

While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.

Matt Benning

The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.

Kyle Burroughs

A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood

The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.

There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Projected starts: 40-45

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – First line opportunities have popped up for Anthony Mantha, Phil Kessel, Rickard Rakell and more

Scott Cullen — Sat, 01 Oct 2022 13:09:41 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In the first 20 Fantasy Points of the season, first line opportunities have popped up for Anthony Mantha, Phil Kessel, Rickard Rakell and more. Here are players to keep an eye on as the new season approaches.

BOSTON, MA - MAY 21: Washington Capitals left wing Anthony Mantha (39) gains the blue line on the power play during Game 4 of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round between the Boston Bruins and the Washington Capitals on May 21, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#1 A rare combination of size and skill, Washington Capitals right winger Anthony Mantha is potentially looking at the opportunity to play on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov, at least while Tom Wilson remains out of action as he recovers from a torn ACL. Mantha had his own trouble last season, limited to 37 games by shoulder surgery, he produced 23 points in 37 games, playing 15:10 per game, which was his lowest average time on ice since a 10-game stint with Detroit in 2015-2016, his first action in the NHL. A healthy Mantha, with a prime opportunity could score 20-plus goals for the first time since the 2018-2019 season.

#2 He will be 35 by the time the puck drops on the new season, and he scored just eight goals last season, but Phil Kessel is looking at an excellent opportunity with the Vegas Golden Knights. Kessel could find himself skating with Jack Eichel on Vegas’ top line and that brings significantly higher upside than what he experienced in Arizona last season, when his most common linemates were Lawson Crouse Travis Boyd, Johan Larsson, and Alex Galchenyuk.

#3 Acquired by the Pittsburgh Penguins from the Anaheim Ducks last season, Rickard Rakell contributed 13 points and 48 shots on goal in 19 games for the Penguins. While Rakell moved around the Pittsburgh lineup, he had great success playing with Sidney Crosby, controlling 58.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts and 61.9% of the expected goals, outscoring the opposition 11-1 in the 98 minutes that they played together. If Rakell starts the season with Crosby and Jake Guentzel on the Penguins’ top line, it is a fantastic opportunity for the 29-year-old winger who has consistently been able to generate shots, with inconsistent finishing results.

#4 San Jose Sharks winger Kevin Labanc had just six points in 21 games last season before shoulder surgery ended his campaign. However, he is healthy now and not only is he looking at a return to a scoring role with the Sharks, but Labanc will have first crack on San Jose’s top power play unit. He has struggled since producing a career-high 56 points in 82 games during the 2018-2019 season, but Labanc has the talent to be a productive player and it appears that he will have the opportunity.

#5 After a one-year hiatus in Czechia, 36-year-old David Krejci returns to Boston and it’s important to note just how well Krejci fit alongside Taylor Hall. At the end of the 2020-2021 season, after Hall was acquired from Buffalo, the duo played 193 minutes together and controlled 65.7% of 5v5 shot attempts and 67.1% of expected goals, outscoring opponents 14-1. A full season together should bring positive results for Krejci and Hall.

#6 Yanni Gourde scored 48 points in 74 games in his first season with the Seattle Kraken, playing a career-high 18:29 per game, but he also returned early from shoulder surgery, missing a couple of weeks when it was expected that he would miss the first two months of the season. With Seattle improving its forward depth in the offseason, Gourde should have stronger linemates, giving him a shot at better production in his second season for the Kraken.

#7 When Kailer Yamamoto skated on Connor McDavid’s wing last season, they controlled 54.2% of the 5v5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 57.9% of the expected goals. If Yamamoto can secure that right wing spot, beside McDavid and Evander Kane, there will be ample opportunity for Yamamoto to build on his career-high 41-point season. The next step for Yamamoto involves taking more shots, as he has averaged 1.41 shots on goal per game in his career, not enough to sustain higher offensive production over a long period.

#8 Even though he played just 11:32 per game as a rookie last season, Nashville Predators right winger Philip Tomasino contributed 32 points, including nine on the power play. There may be an opening in Nashville’s top six and if it goes to Tomasino, his ice time should get a significant boost. He is a skilled playmaker but struggled in the brief moments that he moved up the depth chart to play with centers Ryan Johansen or Mikael Granlund as a rookie. In his second season, Tomasino should be expected to elevate his game.

#9 The departure of Nazem Kadri from Colorado could open up the second line center spot for Alex Newhook, the second-year pivot who produced 33 points in 71 games as a rookie last season. The Avalanche also have J.T. Compher and Evan Rodrigues available for that spot, but Newhook should have the higher ceiling, which ought to make him the better fit. Like Yamamoto and Tomasino, Newhook could stand to shoot the puck more frequently. He averaged 1.59 shots on goal per game last season.

#10 A 26-year-old winger who put up 53 points in 45 KHL games for SKA St. Petersburg last season, Andrei Kuzmenko is an NHL-ready winger who is looking at a good chance to produce right away for the Vancouver Canucks. Even though the Canucks have improved their forward depth, Kuzmenko should still have a spot in the top six and with the talent supporting him in Vancouver’s lineup, Kuzmenko could be a sleeper candidate for the Calder Trophy.

#11 This season looks like it will be difficult for the Philadelphia Flyers, and Sean Couturier’s continuing health problems only make it more difficult, but while Couturier is out to start the season, there is yet another chance for 23-year-old Morgan Frost to establish his place in the Flyers lineup. He has 23 points in 77 games over the past three seasons, but if Frost could take advantage of an early opening, he might be able to stick in the lineup full time.

#12 Boston will be starting the season with some major absences due to injury, including defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk, which could leave Hampus Lindholm a role on the Bruins power play. The Bruins also might run five forwards on their top power play unit, but if Lindholm gets a shot on the power play, that would upgrade his offensive contribution. Earlier in his career, he had 15 power play points in 2015-2016, but has been in single digits with the man advantage ever since.

#13 For leagues that do not count plus-minus but value hits and blocked shots, Arizona Coyotes defenseman Dysin Mayo might be worth a late-round look. Mayo played almost 21 minutes per game as a rookie last season and while he produced a modest 12 points in 67 games, he recorded 133 blocked shots and 129 hits. On a Coyotes team that will not have the puck very often, Mayo should be served up many opportunities to record more hits and blocked shots.

#14 A 27-year-old who has started a total of 24 NHL games, Eric Comrie is looking at a much bigger workload with the Buffalo Sabres this season. While the Sabres have some goaltending prospects on the way, it looks like Comrie will be sharing the net with 41-year-old Craig Anderson, and that should mean plenty of reps for Comrie. Although the Sabres are probably not going to be a playoff team this season, they should continue to improve and, after posting a .920 save percentage in 19 games for Winnipeg last season, Comrie has a chance to be fantasy relevant (at least in deeper leagues) with more games coming this season.

#15 The Edmonton Oilers paid a lot of money to lure Jack Campbell to be their starting goaltender, so this is not some suggestion that will not be the case, but when looking at backup goaltenders, keep Stuart Skinner in your sights. The 23-year-old had a .913 save percentage in 13 games for the Oilers last season and Campbell does not have a track record of handling a heavy NHL workload, playing a career-high 49 games last season. If Campbell gets injured or slumps, Skinner could step in and provide immediate value playing behind a strong Oilers squad.

#16 The St. Louis Blues have a lot of veteran forwards, and yet 20-year-old Jake Neighbours still could find his way into a top six role. He had two points in nine games for the Blues last season before getting sent back to the Western Hockey League, where he scored 45 points in 30 games for the Edmonton Oil Kings. Neighbours is further down the list of potential Calder Trophy candidates, but if he sticks in a top-six role with the Blues, that is the kind of situation that would allow him to produce enough to contend for the award.

#17 Returning to the NHL after scoring 94 points in 93 games in Switzerland over the past two seasons, Denis Malgin has a chance to not only secure a spot with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but potentially even in a scoring role. He has managed 60 points in 192 career NHL games, playing mostly in a depth role, so there is no rush to grab Malgin off the waiver wire, but it is worth monitoring what his role could be on a high-scoring team.

#18 There will be precious little to get excited about in Chicago this season, but there may be some deep league value for players that will get overlooked. The Blackhawks acquired Taylor Raddysh from the Tampa Bay Lightning as part of the Brandon Hagel trade last season and Raddysh produced 10 points and 43 shots on goal in 21 games for Chicago. With such a lacklustre lineup, Raddysh has the opportunity to play in a scoring role and on the first unit power play, which might be enough to give him some fringe fantasy value.

#19 26-year-old New York Rangers winger Sammy Blais missed most of last season after tearing his ACL. That limited him to just four points in 14 games and while scoring is never top of mind when it comes to Blais’ contributions, he had 28 points in 76 games while playing a limited role for St. Louis in the previous two seasons. There might be an opportunity on Broadway for Blais, that if the Rangers are looking for someone to fill the right-wing spot on the top line with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, Blais might get a shot in that role. If he sticks, that should elevate his offensive production to go with hit totals (403 in 133 career games) that make him a worthy contender for a spot in banger leagues.

#20 When the Seattle Kraken upgraded their forward group in the offseason, it looked like it might squeeze Ryan Donato out of a spot. The 26-year-old winger ultimately re-signed later in the summer. Coming off a season in which he tallied a career-high 16 goals and 31 points, Donato is worth tracking because he has been able to generate shots at a good rate while playing in a depth role, and if he manages to find a spot with better talent in Seattle, he probably has some untapped offensive potential.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:24:48 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - FEBRUARY 14: San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl (48) and San Jose Sharks right wing Timo Meier (28) talk during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers on February 14, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Timo Meier

An elite shot generator who had everything come together in 2021-2022, Meier had career highs in goal (35) and points (76) while launching 4.23 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career and fifth highest rate in the league. There had been signs of this kind of performance before, but last season Meier was a consistent force throughout the season and it’s not easy to generate shots and points at that rate, especially for a team that is struggling. Now that sets a new level of expectations for what he might be able to accomplish in the future, but if the Sharks are going to become a more competitive franchise, they will likely need more of the same from Meier. Furthermore, if he puts up another season like he did last season, there ought to be greater league-wide recognition for his performance because he was outstanding last season. Tempering expectations, Meier should be a reasonable bet for 30 goals and 65 points this season, with the understanding that if he can maintain his elite shot rates that he could very well be a point-per-game player.

Tomas Hertl

After committing to stay in San Jose with a new contract, Hertl responded by scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career and his 64 points also represented the second highest total of his career. A powerful and skilled center, Hertl also recorded a career high 105 hits and played a career high 19:56 per game. It was a very productive campaign, and he did all of this despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, which does not seem like an ideal use of his talents. Hertl is solid defensively, that’s not the point, but the 28-year-old’s offensive skills set him apart to a greater degree, so it might make more sense to focus his efforts there, when possible. Hertl should be able to produce 25 goals and 60 points, with room to elevate further depending on his durability and how well his supporting cast in San Jose performs.

Logan Couture

The 33-year-old center continues to deliver solid results, and he put up 23 goals and 56 points last season while driving play in a positive way, at least relative to his teammates. Couture’s shot rate of 2.58 shots per game last season was his highest since 2017-2018, the season when he scored a career-high 34 goals, but he has established a level of productivity in the league, surpassing 20 goals nine times and topping 30 goals three times. The main question for the Sharks will be for how much longer can he produce at a first line level? He is under contract for five more seasons, and it seems unlikely that he will avoid decline in that time, but he is coming off a strong season and should be in position to be a productive scoring center again, good for at least 50 points, maybe even more.

Alexander Barabanov

After starting his NHL career as a spare part with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Barabanov has found stability in San Jose, producing 46 points in 79 games since joining the Sharks. Some measure of that production may reflect opportunity more than his own individual improvement, because Barabanov’s most common Sharks linemates have been Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, so that is about as favorable as it gets for a Sharks winger. Barabanov also happens to be a relatively reluctant shooter, so having him in a playmaking role with the team’s top two goal-scorers does offer a stylistic fit. It’s hard to pin down a forecast for Barabanov because he seems so heavily dependent on linemates that are better players, so if he was to get bumped from the top line, his value could drop dramatically. As such, the reasonable play would be to expect 30 points from Barabanov, with the understanding that he has potential upside that could take him higher.

Kevin Labanc

A skilled 26-year-old winger, Labanc had stumbled since busting out for a career high 56 points in 2018-2019 and he had managed just six points in 21 games before he had to undergo shoulder surgery and that ultimately left him sidelined for the rest of the season. In his last eight games before surgery, Labanc had zero points and was averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, so he was at a relative low point. He has the playmaking skill to play in a top six role but after some injuries and inconsistency he will have to earn his way back into a significant spot with this team. Labanc could do it, because he has the puck skills and the shot to be a point producer in the National Hockey League but, coming off shoulder surgery, it is not going to be easy to get back to his previous level of production. If Labanc produced 35-40 points and managed to stay healthy, that would be a positive outcome, but there is a path to even more points if he could get back to his early career form.

Oskar Lindblom

Although the Philadelphia Flyers stuck with Lindblom while he recovered from Ewing’s Sarcoma, he had not been able to recapture his previous form, so the Flyers bought out the final year of his contract. That presented an opportunity for the Sharks to buy low on a 26-year-old winger who had shown real promise early in his NHL career. It is a worthwhile risk to take because Lindblom’s defensive play is solid enough, which raises the floor on his level of contribution, but if the 26-year-old can get his scoring touch back then he might have a chance to score 15 goals and 30 points to provide a favorable return on investment.

Luke Kunin

Picked up in a trade with the Nashville Predators, Kunin is a feisty winger whose on-ice results aren’t great, but teams that want guys who will go to battle are interested in players like Kunin because he hits a lot and will drop the gloves, if need be. He does have some level of skill, scoring 38 goals in 183 games across the past three seasons, but the challenge for the Sharks is taking the parts of Kunin’s game that they like and figuring out how to improve his possession results because, among the 232 forwards that have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in the past three seasons, Kunin ranks 231^st in relative Corsi. If he can overcome those underlying numbers, Kunin could produce 15 goals and 25-30 points, while potentially adding huge hit totals – he had 223 hits last season, the first time in his career that he had more than 90 hits in a season.

Nick Bonino

A reliable veteran who struggled quite a bit last season, Bonino went 18 games without a point to start the season, though he ended up scoring eight goals in his last 15 games to finish with more respectable numbers. Still, 26 points in 80 games was the 34-year-old’s lowest per-game production since his rookie season of 2010-2011. Bonino tends to have the deck stacked against him, starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and even with his sound defensive play, his possession numbers have been terrible the past two seasons. Given his age, it’s fair to wonder if he will be able to turn that around. Setting an expectation for 15 goals and 30 points is reasonable enough, provided Bonino can maintain a top nine role.

Noah Gregor

A 24-year-old winger, Gregor has started to make his mark in the NHL by generating shots at a high rate but has not been able to finish his chances, scoring on just 6.4% of his shots on goal in his career. If he can’t finish at a higher rate, then Gregor will have to provide energy and physical play in a depth role. It is still relatively early in Gregor’s NHL career, so he will face a challenge from others just to secure a spot in the lineup, but if Gregor can play on a consistent basis, 25 points could be in his sights, and his scoring numbers could spike if he ever learns how to finish. He had scored 14 goals and 40 points in 43 AHL games, so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with the objective when he gets into the offensive zone. It has just proven to be difficult for him to finish his opportunities in the NHL.

DEFENSE

Erik Karlsson

Following a down season in 2020-2021, Karlsson bounced back in a big way last season. While he wasn’t peak Karlsson, he still put up 35 points in 50 games. Of course, injuries have played a bigger part in Karlsson’s career in recent seasons, as he has not played 70 games in a season since 2017-2018. Since 2013-2014, Karlsson has scored 497 points which ranks fourth among defensemen. His 0.82 points per game ranks second among defensemen (behind Cale Makar). With Brent Burns getting traded to Carolina, Karlsson should have a bigger role quarterbacking the Sharks power play, so if Karlsson could manage to stay healthy, he might have his best offensive production in several seasons. Try 45 points with potential for more if Karlsson manages to stay healthy. That health risk is not something to be ignored, either, since Karlsson has missed more than 10 games in four of the past five seasons.

Ryan Merkley

The 2018 first-round pick reached the National Hockey League last season and played 39 games for the Sharks. While he has potential, with the ability to generate offensive chances, he is also a work in progress when it comes to his play without the puck. That could leave him in a battle for a regular spot in the lineup, but the 22-year-old also offers offensive potential and that might hold some value for the Sharks. Merkley has 30 points, though just two goals, in 63 AHL games, so he has a little bit of an offensive track record that should offer more hope than the six points in 39 games that he scored for the Sharks last season.

Mario Ferraro

A bundle of energy who plays hard, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to establish as their team identity. The 23-year-old was one of 11 defensemen to record at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season, even though he was limited to 63 games after suffering a broken fibula. There is still room for improvement, with regard to how he can generate offense and how he defends the blueline. If Ferraro could produce more than 20 points that would count as progress, but that also might be enough, along with his hit and blocked shot totals, to give him fringe fantasy value in deep leagues.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

There was a time when Vlasic was a premier shutdown defender but that is in the rearview mirror now and the 35-year-old’s role has been reduced significantly in recent seasons. He played a career-low 15:13 per game last season and is now an expensive depth defenseman. San Jose has been outscored 141-91 with Vlasic on the ice during 5-on-5 play in the past three seasons, so it’s understandable that his role is getting reduced and that reduced role limits what kind of scoring might come from Vlasic. Anything more than 15 points would be relatively surprising.

GOALTENDING

James Reimer

The San Jose Sharks quickly cleared up any lingering questions that fans might have had regarding their goaltending tandem positions a few weeks before training camp was set to open, dealing Adin Hill to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving James Reimer with only backup Kaapo Kähkönen as his second-in-command.

The Sharks remain a hard team to figure out from a goaltending perspective, because they just can’t seem to put it all together – although Reimer, who will be 35-years-old before the season wraps up, has been their most successful option over the last handful of years. His .911 save percentage in all situations was peppered with consistently good games and very few poor ones, similar to the games that Antti Raanta posted for Carolina in Reimer’s old spot on the east coast; like Raanta, Reimer played a season that didn’t challenge for any Vezina nods but gave his team a known and consistent entity to play behind each night. Reimer’s game still has a few of the rough edges that have lingered as a tribute to the unorthodox development path he took – he didn’t receive formal goaltending coaching until later in his adolescence, giving him a style that relies more on his instincts than monotonous style and predictable footwork. But while he lacks some of the finesse of goaltenders who had earlier formal training, his affable personality shines through in how seamlessly he integrates himself into a team’s defensive system; he seems to rarely find himself fighting against those playing in front of him, and his lack of inconsistency over the last five or six seasons make it easy to trust that he’ll get the job done in the back while his teammates can focus their games more on offense. His biggest risk area remains his health; while he hasn’t missed extensive time recently, his laundry list of injuries over his career keep him firmly encamped among the goaltenders who will always need a reliable number two just in case the team is left without their services for a stretch.

Projected starts: 50-55

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers power play in a league of its own – Sillinger, Terry, Mangiapane, Getzlaf and more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 04 Nov 2021 14:51:31 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Oilers power play is in a league of its own, Cole Sillinger, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, and Ryan Getzlaf are among the players off to encouraging starts to the season.

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 18: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in action in the third period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Winnipeg Jets on March 18, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Edmonton Oilers power play is wrecking the league. This is not new, as the Oilers have the most productive 5-on-4 results across the past three seasons, scoring 9.45 goals per 60 minutes. This season they are scoring 19.03 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. The St. Louis Blues (16.62) are the only other team scoring more than 12 goals per 60 during 5-on-4 play. This is unsustainably ridiculous but when it has already been established as the league’s best power play, they are probably going to continue to put up great results.

#2 Among those to play at least 10 minutes during 5-on-4 play this season (it’s early!), Connor McDavid leads the way with 16.68 points/60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13.39) is seventh. Zach Hyman (12.54) is ninth. Leon Draisaitl is all the way down at 20^th (10.98). Even if these early results are unsustainably great, the prolific nature of the Edmonton power play does bode well for players like Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.

#3 Hyman, in particular, is reaping early rewards from his role on the Oilers power play. He has 6.70 individual expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which is far and away the best rate in the league. The rest of the top five includes: Matthew Tkachuk (3.87), Leon Draisaitl (3.77), Reilly Smith (3.77), and Josh Norris (3.76). Connor McDavid is sixth (3.63).

#4 The job just keeps getting more challenging in Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin have landed in Covid-19 protocol after Crosby had played just one game following offseason wrist surgery. A player to watch in Pittsburgh could be rookie Drew O’Connor, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) in seven games but ranks fourth in points/60 (4.30) and 19^th in shots/60 (12.05). That is a super small sample for a player who does not have an illustrious track record as a scorer, but O’Connor did produce 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 20 AHL games last season during his first pro campaign, so he may have at least a little offensive upside.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets rookie centre Cole Sillinger had a goal and an assist in his first eight NHL games then put up two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s overtime win against Colorado. One reason to be intrigued by Sillinger’s ability to generate offense? Among the 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Sillinger ranks fifth with 13.95 shots/60, behind Blake Coleman (16.76), Vladimir Tarasenko (14.76), Jeff Skinner (14.35), and Logan O’Connor (14.31).

#6 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry failed to record a point in Anaheim’s first game of the season. In the nine games since then, Terry has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal, recording a point in each of those nine games. He has already tied his career high with seven goals, the same total he had last season in 48 games. Terry has also played more than 21 minutes in two of the past three games, so his production is getting rewarded.

VANCOUVER, BC - MAY 18: Calgary Flames left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) skates with the puck during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on May 18, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#7 With seven goals in nine games this season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has scored 25 goals in 65 games since the start of last season, shooting a lofty 22.5%. That shooting percentage is not likely to last but since the start of last season there have been 323 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Mangiapane ranks fifth with 1.46 goals/60, behind Auston Matthews (1.83), Jakub Vrana (1.68), Daniel Sprong (1.56), and Brandon Saad (1.46).

#8 Speaking of players with unsustainably high shooting percentages, Tampa Bay’s Alex Killorn has eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak. He now has seven goals on 18 shots this season, good for a 38.9% shooting percentage. Killorn led the league in shooting percentage in 2019-2020 when he scored on 20.0% of his shots but he has been under 12.5% in every other season of his career. This isn’t to suggest dropping Killorn, as he has established a consistent level of production and has a significant role on the Lightning power play, but the goal-scoring pace should slow down.

#9 Ryan Getzlaf became the Anaheim Ducks all-time leading scorer this week, surpassing Teemu Selanne, and the 36-year-old centre has been very productive, with 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games but that does not cover all of Getzlaf’s fantasy appeal. He also has 21 hits, 11 blocked shots and, often a reluctant shooter, he has 30 shots on goal. His 2.73 shots per game would rank as the second highest per-game shot rate of his career. It’s early, but it looks like a pretty good bounce-back season after Getzlaf managed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in 48 games last season.

#10 Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov was in a goal-scoring slump to start the season but scored in overtime against Ottawa Tuesday to get on the board. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 32 shots on goal in nine games and that shot rate was always the reason to expect Kaprizov to snap out of it. Last season started differently for him. Kaprizov had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his first 18 games but only had 32 shots. His shot rate picked up as the season progressed and now, he is good for three-plus per game on average.

#11 Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala is also off to a relatively mediocre start, with five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games but he has 27 shots on goal, and he has only had more than three shots on goal per game once in his career – that was last season. As long as the shots are there, it’s fair to expect the goals and points to follow.

#12 For those seeking peripheral statistical value, beyond goals and assists, there are four players with at least two shots on goal and four hits per game: Darnell Nurse, Brady Tkachuk, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Radko Gudas. Nurse and Tkachuk would have been relatively early picks because they are productive enough offensively, too. Jaskin has not found the scoresheet yet for Arizona but is not shy about playing the body, while Gudas has consistently generated shots and hits for much of his career.

#13 A group of defensemen offering additional peripheral stats value, those averaging at least two shots on goal, two hits and two blocked shots per game: Esa Lindell, Jacob Trouba, Zach Whitecloud, and Matt Dumba. Whitecloud is on IR and Dumba is rostered in 80% of Yahoo leagues, but Trouba (52%) and Lindell (23%) are more readily available to provide sneaky value on the blueline.

#14 Among 212 forwards that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander (3.95) and Auston Matthews (3.77) rank first and third in terms of on-ice expected goals. Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov is second (3.83) and Jordan Staal (3.54) is fourth. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (3.50), somewhat surprisingly, rounds out the top five. That might suggest that it’s time to buy on the Maple Leafs’ top line because, so far, their production has not been outstanding. But if the chances have been there, the goals will probably be coming soon.

#15 Nylander and Matthews are now playing with Michael Bunting, who is the league leader in individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (1.41), followed by Dylan Larkin (1.32), Jeff Skinner (1.25), Alex Iafallo (1.23), and Vladimir Tarasenko (1.20). Auston Matthews and Andrei Svechnikov are sixth and seventh, respectively.

#16 Some notable forwards with the lowest on-ice expected goals: Mike Hoffman (1.22), Kevin Labanc (1.29), Dominik Kubalik (1.40), Luke Kunin (1.42), and Nick Suzuki (1.57). It is tough to create sustainable offence with such low rates of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Given expectations, Suzuki might be the most worrying in that low-rent statistical neighbourhood.

#17 Early in the season, the best goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations are: Frederik Andersen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, and Elvis Merzlikins. Every one of those goaltenders has had some previous success in the league but Andersen, Bobrovsky, and Markstrom are all coming off mediocre, at best, seasons in 2021. Who can figure out goaltenders from one year to the next?

#18 At the other end of the spectrum, the worst goaltenders in terms of actual goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed in all situations this season are: Carter Hutton, Kevin Lankinen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, and Philipp Grubauer. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. Grubauer was a finalist. Kuemper has a .921 save percentage in 147 games since 2017-2018. It is early and small sample goaltending is about as volatile as it gets but goaltending remains a fickle and often unpredictable beast.

#19 Aside from the injured Drew Doughty and Ryan Ellis, the defenceman with the highest points per game this season is Carolina’s Tony DeAngelo, who has 10 points in nine games (1.11 ppg). He is just ahead of Roman Josi (1.10) and Adam Fox (1.10). Kevin Shattenkirk, Kris Letang, Aaron Ekblad, Torey Krug, and Victor Hedman are each at one point per game. Everything is coming up Carolina, it seems.

#20 The Montreal Canadiens sent rookie right winger Cole Caufield to the American Hockey League this week, after he started the season with no goals and one assist in 10 games. Caufield had 22 shots on goal. Last season, when he scored four goals in his first 10 games for the Habs, Caufield had 30 shots on goal, and he had 48 shots on goal in 20 playoff games, so the declining shot rate was one troubling sign. Not all of that would fall on Caufield but if he is not being put in position to generate three shots per game, he is probably not going to deliver the desired results. He will be back, likely after tearing up the AHL for a while.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2021 NHL YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-Stars

Scott Cullen — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:09:45 +0000

FANTASY ALL-STARS

There are many reasons why a player might not be valued in the fantasy hockey marketplace. Often, that discrepancy between market value and expectations for a new season can be tied to poor percentages the year before.

It’s important to understand that shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage can fluctuate in small samples and from one year to the next there can be dramatic shifts and the changes in those percentages ultimately change goal and point production, too.

But there are other reasons why a player might be in position to exceed expectations in a new season. Maybe the player is coming back from injury or has moved to a new team or is looking at a bigger role on the power play; all of these factors could put a player in a better position to produce.

Last year’s Fantasy All-Stars article included the likes of Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, William Nylander, Jaden Schwartz, and Kevin Fiala among those who were much more valuable by the end of the season than they might have been expected to be at the beginning. It also included Alex Galchenyuk, so there are no guarantees here but there are some tried and frequently true methods for seeking out players who can exceed expectations and thereby provide fantasy value that can make a difference in your league.

Opportunity matters, fluctuations in percentages matter, and when it comes to value in fantasy drafts, perception matters.

While someone like Taylor Hall should be better this season than he was last season, there’s not necessarily a lot of value to be gained because there’s naturally quite a bit of hype surrounding his move to Buffalo and the possibility of playing with Jack Eichel.

Hall is a good bet to have a bounce-back season and he could very well be one of the top left wingers by season’s end but that’s going to be a very popular take so there isn’t necessarily a lot of excess value to be gained unless he has a truly exceptional campaign.

Here are my Fantasy All-Stars for the 2020-2021 NHL season, players that may be able to provide good value relative to their preseason expectations.

FORWARDS

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 20: New Jersey Devils left wing Nikita Gusev (97) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the San Jose Sharks on February 20, 2020 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo

After burying 40 goals in 2018-2019, Skinner crashed to just 14 goals and 23 points in 59 games in 2019-2020. However, he remains an elite shot generator with more than three shots on goal per game in every season since his second year in the league and that can turn around results in a hurry once the percentages pendulum swings. The Sabres have added talent to their top six up front, bringing in Hall and Eric Staal, so Skinner should benefit from having more skill around him in the lineup.

Nikita Gusev, LW, New Jersey

It took some time for Gusev to transition from the KHL to the NHL last season and he had 14 points in his first 29 games. But from mid-December on, shortly after the Devils made a coaching change, Gusev saw his ice time increase and he produced 30 points in 37 games. He should be poised to play a prominent role for the Devils right from the start of this season.

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal

The playmaking pivot showed well in his rookie season, putting up 41 points in 71 games, but his work in the postseason should elevate expectations. With their season on the line, the Habs leaned even more on Suzuki and he had seven points and 27 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in 10 playoff games. If Suzuki gets that kind of ice time from the start of this season, he should see a spike in production.

Robert Thomas, RW, St. Louis

The third year Blues winger has been on an upward trajectory and he produced 26 points in 33 games after Christmas last season. With Vladimir Tarasenko expected to miss much of this season, the opportunity is there for Thomas to take on an even bigger offensive role.

Denis Gurianov, RW, Dallas

While the 23-year-old winger was the only 20-goal scorer on the Stars last season, he also managed just nine assists and ranked 11^th among Dallas forwards in average time on ice. Even if Gurianov doesn’t score on more than 15% of his shots again he has the potential for increased production just based on the possibility of receiving more ice time because he’s too good to be limited to 13 minutes per game.

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey

It’s hard to fly under the radar as a first overall pick but Hughes’ value is surely depressed after a rookie season in which he slumped at the end with one assist in his last 14 games, finishing with 21 points in 61 games. But there are also reasons to be optimistic about Hughes’ chances heading into his sophomore campaign. The first is that his percentages have to get better. Hughes had a shooting percentage of 5.7% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1%; both very low. The second is that Hughes is outstanding at transporting the puck, with control, from the defensive zone into the offensive zone. If he can still do that and the percentages start to fall his way, Hughes’ production could take off.

Kevin Labanc, RW, San Jose

Even after getting an extra couple of minutes of ice time per game last season, Labanc saw his point total fall from 56 points in 82 games in 2018-2019 to just 33 points in 70 games last season. Despite creating a lot of opportunities during 5-on-5 play last season, Labanc’s percentages dropped significantly from the previous season. He should have an important enough role in San Jose to have it pay off if the percentages flip again.

Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus

The veteran winger went from a career-high 41 goals and 69 points in 2018-2019 to 12 goals and 26 points in 44 games last season. He still generated more than three shots on goal per game for the third straight season and remains a part of Columbus’ first power play unit. He also had career low shooting and on-ice shooting percentages so a healthy Atkinson will be set for a bounce-back performance this season.

Kirby Dach, C, Chicago

The third overall pick in 2019, Dach was fine as a rookie, contributing 23 points in 64 games but his play in the bubble should increase anticipation for what he might accomplish in his second season. Not only did Dach produce six points in nine playoff games but he averaged 19:24 of ice time per game, a boost of more than five minutes per game over the regular season. Part of that boost was finding a role on Chicago’s top power play unit so Dach could be ready to provide significant secondary offense. (Editors Note: Kirby Dach suffered an injury in the World Junior Championship and is likely t miss much, if not all, of the season)

Vincent Trocheck, C, Carolina

Since suffering a broken ankle in November of 2018, Trocheck has produced 58 points in 99 games. That after producing 88 points in the 99 games that he had played before suffering that injury. This season may provide a better chance for Trocheck to recapture his form, especially with a Hurricanes team that has tended to dominate shot counts in recent seasons.

Ryan Donato, LW, San Jose

Although he has not had a consistent role since arriving in the league, Donato has been a high-end shot generator and he did score a career-high 14 goals while playing 10:38 per game for the Wild last season. The move to San Jose brings a real opportunity for Donato to get more ice time and, with quality linemates, Donato could surprise.

Paul Stastny, C, Winnipeg

Stastny will be 35 years old by the time next season starts, which isn’t the ideal time to go picking someone for a bounce-back season. The value here is in expecting his production to recover from a season in which he finished with 38 points, his lowest in a season in which he played at least 50 games. His on-ice shooting percentage of 6.9% last season was the second lowest of his career so it’s not that difficult to imagine Stastny returning to Winnipeg, where he had great production in a small sample late in the 2017-2018 season, and finding finishers who can help boost his point production.

DEFENSE

TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 05: Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Sean Walker (26) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 5, 2019, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

P.K. Subban, New Jersey

It’s not like Subban could ever be forgotten but he did have a career-low 18 points in 68 games last season. However, the main issue is that he struggled on the power play and the Devils gave Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson significant time on the point with the man advantage. If Subban can get back to producing on the power play he could once again be a difference maker.

Tyson Barrie, Edmonton

The move to Toronto did not start out well for Barrie, who managed seven points in 23 games before the Maple Leafs fired head coach Mike Babcock. A new coach offered Barrie more freedom and he produced a much more typical 32 points in 47 games the rest of the way. He moves to Edmonton, where the Oilers need a power play quarterback because of Oscar Klefbom’s injury. Playing a critical role on the league’s best power play is a great place for Barrie to re-establish his value.

Erik Gustafsson, Philadelphia

A quality puck-moving defenseman who has produced 27 power play points in the past two seasons, Gustafsson did see his total points drop from 60 points in 2018-2019 to 29 last season, which is part of the reason that he may be a fantasy bargain. Gustafsson should be looking at a big role on a Philadelphia blueline that can use him in a top four role after Matt Niskanen retired.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston

The departure of Torey Krug to St. Louis leaves a spot open on Boston’s top power play unit and McAvoy, the Bruins’ best defenseman, could be the beneficiary. In his first three NHL seasons, McAvoy has contributed 1.23 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, which ranks 12th among defensemen (between Gustafsson and Barrie) so he has the offensive chops to handle the job.

Rasmus Andersson, Calgary

The Flames have overhauled their blueline and Andersson appears set to take on an even bigger role than the one he played last season when he logged nearly 20 minutes per game. He’s also probably due for an uptick in on-ice shooting percentage from last season’s 6.2% giving him a chance to make a more notable offensive contribution.

Sean Walker, Los Angeles

Drew Doughty is ahead of Walker on the Kings first power play unit, which does put a limit on the upside of the third-year defender, but Walker is capable of generating shots and contributed 24 points in 70 games despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% last season.

GOALIES

EDMONTON, AB - DECEMBER 14: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Mikko Koskinen (19) makes a blocker save in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on December 14, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.(Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton

The Oilers are playing to win now and if they are intent on being competitive, Koskinen is the goaltender that gives them the best chance. He wasn’t very effective in four playoff appearances last year but he was above average in 38 regular season games, which should give him the edge on Mike Smith for the starter’s job and if Koskinen is starting for an Oilers team that should be a playoff team, he can be a rather useful fantasy netminder. That he hasn’t yet established a great reputation, as a 32-year-old who has played just 97 career NHL games, is an advantage in this case as Koskinen should be relatively inexpensive on draft day.

Frederik Andersen, Toronto

From 2016-2017 through 2018-2019, the Maple Leafs netminder won 107 games while posting a .918 save percentage, rating well above average. Last season wasn’t quite at that level. Andersen still won 29 of 52 starts but his .909 save percentage was a little below average and it’s that dip in save percentage, coupled with Andersen getting outdueled by Columbus’ goaltenders in the play-in series, that should make Andersen a little more cost friendly for what he can provide. He still has a contending team in front of him and if he bounces back to previous form, Andersen will have a chance to provide a great return on investment.

Pacific Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 13:00:50 +0000

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks. Injury. Those two went hand-in-hand last season and 2018-19 isn’t off to a particularly good start either. They’ve already lost Corey Perry for the next five months after he suffered a torn meniscus and underwent surgery to repair it. If there is any silver lining there, it’s that this presented Perry with an opportunity to repair pre-existing MCL damage. Apparently, he had been playing through the MCL injury for years now rather than undergo surgery, so once comes back from this, he should be in a much better position than he was at any point in recent years.

In the meantime, Ondrej Kase might end up playing alongside Ryan Getzlaf, though for what it’s worth, that’s not the direction the Ducks went in for Saturday’s preseason game. Instead, Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell were on a line with Troy Terry. Kase was on the third line with Andrew Cogliano and Sam Steel. Terry is someone to keep an eye on. Even if he doesn’t end up on the top line, the Perry injury does increase the chances that the 21-year-old rookie will see significant ice time. He excelled with the University of Denver last season, scoring 14 goals and 48 points in 39 games.

Ryan Kesler (hip) has been making progress but hasn’t been cleared for contact yet and probably won’t be ready at the start of the season. As noted above, Steel was on the third line for Saturday’s preseason game and Kesler’s likely unavailability has improved the chances that he will start with the team. Steel had 131 points in 66 WHL games in 2016-17 and 83 points in 54 WHL contests last season.

Arizona Coyotes

Clayton Keller

Arizona is a team that’s been pegged by a lot of people as a 2017-18 non-playoff team that might leap into the postseason this time. That still might happen, but they’ll have to endure a bit of a rough patch right off the bat. Alex Galchenyuk is week-to-week with what’s probably a groin injury while Christian Dvorak (lower body) is technically day-to-day, but he hasn’t practiced yet during training camp, so his return probably isn’t imminent. That leaves the Coyotes without their second and third-line centers.

Vinnie Hinostroza or Clayton Keller could potentially start the season playing up the middle to help plug that hole. Meanwhile, Dylan Strome might open the campaign as the third-line center. It’s a good opportunity for Strome, who was drafted third overall in 2015 amid very high expectations but hasn’t yet lived up to them. He’s only played in 28 games with Arizona so far, but he did excel in the AHL last season with 22 goals and 53 points in 50 contests.

The injuries might also have an impact on Lawson Crouse, who was originally projected to start on the fourth line but might play a more significant role. It helps that he’s looked good in the preseason. In 2017-18, he had 15 goals and 32 points in 56 AHL contests as well as a goal in 11 games with Arizona.

Calgary Flames

Going into the preseason, one of the big questions involving the Calgary Flames was the status of their top line. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan would compromise two-third of it – that much was obvious – but who would be the third member? The Flames signed James Neal and acquired then signed Elias Lindholm over the summer, creating the expectation that one of those two would take that top line job. As it turns out, they might share it.

Flames GM Brad Treliving recently raised the possibility that Neal and Lindholm will alternate on the top line depending on the situation. That might not last as the Flames might ultimately start to favor sending out one with Gaudreau and Monahan more often than the other, but it at least seems like we won’t get a more definitive answer by the end of training camp.

On the defensive side of things, Juuso Valimaki is a strong candidate to make the opening game roster. He scored 14 goals and 45 points in 43 WHL games last season after being taken with the 16th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. He’s looked good in the preseason to push himself into this favorable position as we approach the deadline for the Flames to submit their roster. Dillon Dube has probably done enough to make the Flames as well. He’s been busy in the preseason with four goals and six points in six games. Dube, 20, had 38 goals and 84 points in 53 WHL contests.

Edmonton Oilers

Ty Rattie

Ty Rattie has 19 points in 49 career NHL games. In the 2018 preseason he’s scored seven goals and 11 points in four contests. That’s pretty crazy, but Oilers fans probably remember another player that excelled in exhibition games only to fizzle out just a year back. Kailer Yamamoto had five goals and seven points in six preseason games in 2017, which isn’t quite at Rattie’s level, but it was still exciting to see coming from a player that just turned 19-years-old and wasn’t expected to be NHL-ready yet. When it came to the regular season though, Yamamoto had three assists in nine games before being returned to the WHL.

There’s another similarity between them too. While Yamamoto didn’t consistently play alongside Connor McDavid, the superstar was Yamamoto’s most common linemate. Similarly, Rattie is now projected to play alongside McDavid and much of his recent production can be attributed to who he’s sharing the ice with. There’re differences too though. While Rattie doesn’t have an extensive NHL resume, the 25-year-old is certainly significantly more experienced and was already expected to make the team. More importantly though is the position each player is in. Plus, the Rattie experiment with McDavid has been going on longer than just the preseason. In Rattie’s 14 games with Edmonton in 2017-18, he spent a large majority of his 5-on-5 ice time alongside McDavid and Rattie recorded five goals and nine points as a result.

So, there is some reason to believe that the Rattie-McDavid experiment has staying power and while we’re not expecting anything like the superstar numbers we’ve seen out of Rattie in the preseason to continue, he should be a pretty solid contributor if he stays on that top line.

On a less upbeat note, Mikko Koskinen, who is slated to be the Edmonton Oilers’ backup goaltender after excelling in the KHL, has been a mixed bag in the preseason. That created some speculation that Al Montoya would earn the job over Koskinen, but ultimately Montoya was put on waivers while Koskinen is still with the team. It’s not too surprising of an outcome. Edmonton made a $2.5 million commitment to Koskinen, so they’re not going to change course before a single regular season game has even been played.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings didn’t make a lot of changes over the summer, but they did make one big move by signing Ilya Kovalchuk. He’s perhaps this season’s biggest X-Factor because he was one of the league’s best snipers when he left, but we’ll have to see what he’s like at the age of 35 and after five seasons in the KHL. For what little it’s worth, Kovalchuk has a goal and an assist in three preseason games.

There was talk of him rounding out the first line of Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, but that experiment didn’t last. Instead, it looks like the 2017-18 line of Kopitar, Brown, and Alex Iafallo will remain intact while Kovalchuk will play on the second line with Jeff Carter and Adrian Kempe.

As far as the bubble players go, it looks like Jaret Anderson-Dolan has managed to earn a spot on the squad. That’s pretty impressive for the 19-year-old whose pro career only consists of five AHL games thus far, but the reason why he’s being called a bubble player is because he will likely serve on the fourth line and might even end up as a healthy scratch on occasion. Also, even if he makes the team it could just be a temporary arrangement. He’s on an entry-level contract, so the nine-game trial rule applies, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he ends up back in the WHL before he gets to log that 10th game with Los Angeles.

San Jose Sharks

The big story for the San Jose Sharks is obvious: They acquired Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators. With that move, San Jose arguably now features the top two best offensive defensemen in the league between Karlsson and Brent Burns.

That duo are expected to play together on the top power-play unit, but not on even strength. Instead, it looks like Karlsson will play with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is another amazing defenseman and while he’s not an elite offensive force, he’s no slouch in that regard either. Vlasic and Karlsson might prove to be the best pairing of the 2018-19 campaign. What about Burns? Joakim Ryan will probably be his partner. Ryan was Burns’ most common even-strength partner last season too, so there’s no real surprise there. That would leave them with a third pairing of Brenden Dillon and Justin Braun.

In terms of forwards, Antti Suomela has been a standout in training camp and it seems like he’s done enough to make the team. You can pencil him in as the third-line center at this point, perhaps alongside Joonas Donskoi and Kevin Labanc. Joe Thornton is also good to play after missing the second half of 2017-18 with a knee injury. Because of the injury, he’s only now getting a chance to play alongside trade deadline acquisition Evander Kane. They’re likely to be on the top line together with Joe Pavelski.

Vancouver Canucks

VANCOUVER, BC - SEPTEMBER 20: Vancouver Canucks centre Elias Pettersson (40) skates against the Los Angeles Kings in a NHL hockey game on September 20, 2018, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC. (Photo by Bob Frid/Icon Sportswire)

In 2017-18, Brock Boeser established himself as the face of the Vancouver Canucks’ rebuild, but he’s about to get some company. Elias Pettersson is aiming to break into the NHL directly from the Swedish league and so far, it’s looking like he’ll do just that. Every rookie comes with a degree of risk, but at least going into the season it’s reasonable to view Pettersson as a potential contender for the Calder Trophy, just as Boeser was last season.

Another very promising forward prospect, Adam Gaudette, has been sent to AHL Utica though after getting a long look in training camp. He dominated with Northeastern University last season, recording 60 points in 38 contests and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get called up at some point in 2018-19.

Defenseman Olli Juolevi will begin the season in the AHL as well. He spent the 2017-18 campaign in SM-liiga, but he also played in the OHL for two seasons, so he does have some experience in North America. Probably the bigger issue with Juolevi is that he underwent back surgery over the summer and consequently couldn’t start training until the middle of August, so it’s not surprising that he couldn’t force his way onto the lineup this time. In the long run though, he could be a significant part of the Canucks’ blueline.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has been nothing if not eventful over the last month. The first big story to break was a rather unpleasant one as Nate Schmidt received a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. Schmidt’s agent did assert that his client’s actions were unintentional, but regardless of the circumstances, the bottom line is a defenseman who recorded 36 points and averaged 22:14 minutes last season will miss the first quarter of the campaign.

That naturally left the Golden Knights with an opening on defense. It did look like Erik Brannstrom might make the team as a result, but the 19-year-old will instead start the season in the AHL. That’s probably not a bad idea given that this is his first campaign in North America after coming over from Sweden. Instead, it looks like Jake Bischoff got the final spot on the Golden Knights’ blueline. He’s 24-years-old and had seven goals and 23 points in 69 AHL contests last season.

The next major event was Vegas acquiring Max Pacioretty from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki and a 2019 second round pick. Vegas gave up quite a bit to get Tatar from Detroit at the trade deadline, but he never really found a spot with the Golden Knights, so it’s not surprising to see him be dealt again, even if it arguably is at a significant loss compared to what Vegas paid. As for Suzuki, he’s a great prospect, but wouldn’t have been a factor this season, so at least in the near-term, this trade represents a big boost for Vegas.

Pacioretty and the summer signing of Paul Stastny gives the Golden Knights the makings of a really strong second line. The third member of that unit is up for debate, but Erik Haula and Alex Tuch appear to be the finalists for that gig.

Finally, RFA Shea Theodore agreed to a seven-year, $36.4 million contract on Sept. 25. He did miss part of training camp, but at least he signed with enough time to get back into the swing of things before the regular season starts. Having him on board is also particularly important right now given the absence of Schmidt and given that his cap hit looks pretty reasonable, this was a nice signing for Vegas.

Kane Enabled – San Jose Sharks 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:29:53 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - The San Jose Sharks finished third in their division for the third year in a row, posting 100 points and looked threatening in the playoffs sweeping Anaheim until they ran into a strong Vegas team who shut them out twice. Once in a 7 – 0 blowout to open the series and in the series clinching win 3 – 0.

They were in the final bidding for John Tavares as a free agent, but after he signed with Toronto they signed Joe Thornton for one more season at $5 million. That is not to say they were inactive in the off-season after signing pending free agent Evander Kane to a seven-year extension at $7.0 million AAV. They also inked 29-year-old assistant captain Logan Couture to an eight-year extension at $8.0 million AAV.

STABLE CORE RETURNS - They will look very similar to the roster they iced at the end of 2017-18 barring any further moves and they are said to be in the mix for Erik Karlsson. They have limited cap space to work with reducing the possibilities without getting creative. Whatever disappointment in not landing Tavares this remains a very good team with a strong core and culture.

Joe Pavelski

Their forward group is led by the criminally underrated Joe Pavelski. Despite their ages he and Thornton continue to be one of the more effective tandems in the league. Kane lined up beside Pavelski after being acquired giving them a solid first line. Pavelski stepped in at center when Thornton was injured and was excellent down the stretch. He and Kane showed good chemistry in their time with Kane firing nine goals in 17 games (17-9-5-4) and Pavelski scoring at a point a game pace in the fourth quarter (20-7-13-20). Management had seen enough to decide to sign Kane for term, despite a chequered history.

Couture lined up with Tomas Hertl most of the season with varying wingers. They also signed Hertl to a four-year contract for $5.625 million AAV, placing a large bet on the future with $13.625 million in cap space between the two after Couture fired a career high 34 goals.

YOUTH INJECTION - While San Jose is often characterized as being an old team, they have been successful in injecting youth and growth from within for many years. A credit to GM Doug Wilson, no other team has earned more wins or a higher points percentage than San Jose since he took over as General Manager. They have clinched a playoff spot in 13 of the last 14 seasons and 18 of the last 20. Adapting to a salary cap world means developing players. The third line represents an infusion of youth and talent in 24-year-old Chris Tierney, and sophomores 22-year-old Kevin Labanc and 21-year-old Timo Meier – who fired 21 goals.

Tierney stepped up in the middle when Thornton went down and showed he can play in the NHL averaging 16 minutes, including leading the forward group in shorthanded time on ice on the NHL’s second-best unit. He also contributed 17 goals and 40 points. Kevin Labanc is a creative playmaker who jumped to 40 points as a sophomore. Timo Meier impressed in his first full NHL campaign finishing with 10 goals over the last 31 games. Both players bounced around lines last season but formed a trio with Tierney by seasons end. A full year of consistent linemates might point to a breakout.

INCOMPARABLE BURNS - The defense is built around Brent Burns who tied for second amongst NHL defenseman with 67 points, just missing 70 for the third straight season. Alarming was his drop off in goals from 29 down to 12, fuelled by a poor shooting percentage falling from 9.1% to 3.6%. Signed until he is 39-years-old and showing no signs of slowing down. He owns all the power play ice time from the point on San Jose. They will almost always deploy a fifth forward leaving little room for power play points for the rest of the group.

It is impressive is that one of the best shutdown defense pairings in the league in Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun were able to provide 33 and 32 points respectively. Justin Braun tied P.K. Subban and Seth Jones with 33 even strength points, and Marc Vlasic contributed 28 points at even strength. The third pairing of Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo added another 22 and 20 points respectively. Like the forwards they have introduced youth on the blueline in Dillon and DeMelo and continued development will be a factor this season.

Martin Jones is signed for the next six years for $5.75 million AAV and their bet in net. He reached the 30-win plateau, 60-start plateau for the third straight season. His performance over the season was uneven struggling at times including the playoffs He flashes elite skills at time, the 28-year-old enters his fourth season as a starter in San Jose, so youth and hard-earned experience could be an x-factor here.

OUTLOOK - They are built to compete with the second-best penalty kill in the league, a strong possession game, and a solid core of veterans ably assisted by a youth group in line with the current NHL. Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski represent the only forwards over the age of 30. The Sharks are not a team with the window closing particularly. Burns appears to be in his peak at 33-years-old and Pavelski seems to improve with age as well. Wilson has added a youthful, speedy forward group to accompany them.

NHL Prospect Watch: Rising in the Pacific

Ryan Wagman — Sun, 12 Feb 2017 17:27:04 +0000

As a perennially high-achieving team, the San Jose Sharks rarely get to draft early. Often enough, by the time late June rolls around, the Sharks do not have a first round pick at all. Last year, they only selected once in the first three rounds of the draft. Coming on the heels of the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup Finals appearance, no one minded, but this pattern does tend to leave limited chances for the organization to restock the cupboards. This has forced the organization to find much of their next generation in the middle and later rounds of the draft, or outside of the draft altogether.

Looking at the Hockey Prospectus top ten from last year, only two were first rounders and six were taken after the second round in their respective draft years. Three of those skaters, Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc and Marcus Sorensen, have already seen extensive time with the Sharks, and another, Nikolay Goldobin, is expected to receive his chance before the year is out. It is not a coincidence that all four of those players are forwards. The Sharks only placed one blueliner in the top ten and most of the defensemen in the system have disappointed. It would be easy to spend this space talking about Mirco Mueller, a former first rounder who was rushed into the NHL and is now floundering in the AHL, having experienced little to no growth in his game since he was drafted in 2013. Having played in 50 NHL games prior to this season, he did not make our cut-off for prospectdom, so I will instead regale you of tales of former second rounder Julius Bergman (San Jose, 2/46, 2014 – D, San Jose (AHL)).

Seen as an offensive defender with Frolunda in Sweden’s top junior league, he followed that up with a promising season with London in the OHL the next year. He is now in his second AHL season even though he turned 21 only a few months ago. In spite of his promising scoring numbers in the OHL and even this year with the Barracuda (18 points in 38 games), Bergman is not trending in the right direction. I have seen him play many times, and I have never been impressed. As a junior-aged player, he could be worse than ineffective in his own zone. Now, he is simply weak in the back, too often losing his man and one of the last options his team will look to when killing a penalty or holding on to a late lead.

He is not a hopeless cause with his age and smooth puck carrying skills still in his favor. He is a decent skater and his frame has filled out enough for him not to be a pushover. While he gets plenty of ice time on the power play, it is more due to his skills moving the puck along the point as his shot is unimpressive. In addition to the aforementioned Mueller, Tim Heed and Joakim Ryan both of whom entered this season largely unheralded as prospects, have passed Bergman on the depth chart for the Sharks.

September 21, 2015: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Joey LaLeggia (84)

Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton, 5/123, 2012 – D, Bakersfield (AHL))

After struggling through a rookie professional season in which he was frequently shuttled back and forth from defense to the wing, former Hobey Baker Award finalist Joey LaLeggia seems to be finding his legs in his second season in the circuit. Standing only 5-9”, the former University of Denver standout was mostly a prospect afterthought before his explosive senior year with the Pioneers.

He failed to impress as a rookie pro as, despite his occasional offensive flashes and clearly plus skating ability, LeLaggia would take risk after risk in moving the puck, too many of which ended up back in his own zone, if not in his net, sooner than later. Combined with a few too many untimely minors, and it was easy for Oilers fans to lose sight of what he could do. Now playing a more consistent role on the back-end for the Condors, LaLeggia has been making better decisions about when and how to move the puck. He plays the game at a very fast pace and has a plus point shot. I am not suggesting that LaLeggia is the next Brian Rafalski, the archetype of the small puck mover. More realistic is another M-A Bergeron.

The Oilers blueline is deeper now than it has been in some time, with the additions of Adam Larsson and Kris Russell both being felt positively in the standings. LaLeggia is unlikely to garner a callup this year outside of an emergency situation, but he is putting himself in line to get another contract after his ELC expires this summer. That was no sure thing a few months ago. His experience on the wing may also help opportunity shine on his door.

Jonny Brodzinski (Los Angeles, 5/148, 2013 – C/RW, Ontario (AHL))

First a disclaimer: I wanted to write about Paul LaDue, but he was recently recalled to Los Angeles, and even though he has only played in one NHL game by the time of this writing, it felt like cheating. That’s OK, though. Brodzinski is a good one.

The oldest of three hockey player Brodzinski boys (Michael is a defenseman in the Sharks’ system, and Easton has been lighting it up in the USHL this year), Jonny is an unheralded high skill player waiting for his chance to play in the NHL. As a rookie pro last year, he showed flashes of offensive talent, most notably a shot that graded out as near elite by former Hockey Prospectus contributor Jason Lewis.

Now clearly more comfortable with the pace of play in the AHL, he is coming into his own. After contributing only 28 points in 65 games as a rookie, he now has 32 in 42. Not only is his shot a weapon to be respected, by the Big Brodzinski is a plus skater with a great pair of mitts. He is brawnier than he was last year or during his time with St. Cloud State but does not play a very physical game. As the Kings have good depth at right wing, his most likely path to regular NHL work is to prove that he can hack it as a center. He should be challenging Nick Shore for a job by training camp next fall.

Thatcher Demko (Vancouver, 2/36, 2014 – G, Utica (AHL))

Professional hockey is hard. Pretty much any player who gets to step on the ice for an AHL team (much less one in the NHL) was the best on their team at many points throughout their youth. Demko, one of the higher profile prospects in the Vancouver system, can also lay claim to having been the best netminder in the entire NCAA last year, closing the season by being named the winner of the Mike Richter Award for the top collegiate goaltender.

Demko still has many of the attributes that excited scouts and pundits before being the second goalie drafted in 2014. He is still 6-4” with the legs of a spider. He is still a very competitive netminder, pushing through crease scrums to get to loose pucks or to pounce on rebounds. His lateral movement is impressive, giving him strong post-to-post mobility. These are all great things to say about a young goalie and Demko remains among the top five-ten goaltending prospects in the game. However (you must have known this was coming) he is still rather raw. He is working on his positioning, which can be a glaring weakness at times, as it can lead to some unfortunate rebounds from which he cannot recover. Further, his long legs can leave him susceptible to “Big five hole syndrome”.

Demko has been splitting time between the pipes for Utica with journeyman Richard Bachman, although Bachman has put up slightly better numbers thus far. Either way, he is not stopping nearly as many pucks for the Comets as he did for BC. Vancouver starting netminder Ryan Miller will be a UFA after this season, but there is not yet any indication that Demko will be ready to take over next year. He still projects as an even money to grow into an NHL start down the road, but not before the 2018-19 season.

Kevin Roy (Anaheim, 4/97, 2012 – LW, San Diego (AHL))

Like Demko, Roy is another collegiate star who is having to learn how to make the necessary adjustments at the AHL level. Unlike Demko, who peaked in his final NCAA season, Roy actually had his worst experience as a senior at Northeastern, as he dealt with an injury that cost him close to a quarter of his last year, cutting into his raw offensive totals and hampering him when he was healthy enough to suit up.

With 27 points in his first 41 games in the AHL, Roy is at least showing that he can still produce fine offensive numbers against more seasoned and more talented competition. Those are certainly respectable totals for a rookie professional. Where he still has room for growth (outside of being generally small) is in his decision making. Roy is a skill player. He was one of the most electrifying puck players in NCAA hockey over the past few seasons. While he can still dazzle, the risks that he got away with frequently in college come at higher costs now. At 5-10” and a slight 170 pounds, he does not look like, nor does he play like, a typical bottom six forward. As a top six type (full disclaimer – I believe the league is trending towards a top nine + energy line instead of a traditional top six/bottom six split) he needs to hone his game and learn to better recognize the situations wherein risk taking will be rewarded and better avoid those lower upside plays.

The line between an AHL star who cannot play in the NHL and a superstar can be thin at times. For a league that is generally risk-averse, Roy’s biggest challenge is in proving that he will not make a coach look stupid. That may not be the best approach for building a winning hockey club, but it is the world in which we live. It is too early to write the book on Roy, as he can still go in either direction.

Adin Hill (Arizona, 3/76, 2015 – G, Tucson (AHL))

A workhorse in the WHL for the Portland Winterhawks, Adin Hill has been very quick to find his sea legs in the AHL. One good way to judge goalies in leagues of varying quality is to compare their save percentage to that of their counterparts. The Roadrunners have used three netminders thus far. Journeyman veteran Justin Peters has a 0.868 save percentage in 12 appearances. Marek Langhamer has stopped 91.8% of shots in 10 games in his second year in the AHL. Hill, in 22 games, has a 0.921 save percentage. Only three netminders with at least 20 games played in the AHL have stopped a higher percentage of shots.

At 6-3”, 185, Hill has the ideal goalie frame. He covers the net well and remains calm under pressure. More a shot blocker than a pure butterfly netminder, he is best covering the center and lower half of the net. He has notably impressive rebound control and is not without some puck playing skills.

If the Coyotes were a more competitive team, they would do well to consider sending down the struggling Louis Domingue and bringing up Hill to back-up the venerable Mike Smith. As Arizona is one of the few teams that is clearly out of contention this early (in truth, they have been out of it from day two of the season – they lost five in a row after winning their season opener), there is no need to rush Hill. The best course of action now is to allow him to continue stopping pucks for Tucson and then give him a chance to compete for an NHL job next season.

Brandon Hickey (Calgary, 3/64, 2014 – D, Boston University (Hockey East))

Drafted as an offensive blueliner out of the AJHL in 2014, Hickey entered college hockey with a bang, with a 17 point freshman season. Although he made Canada’s WJC entry as a sophomore, the season was viewed by many as a disappointment, with his scoring totals dropping to a mere eight points on the season. He still demonstrated a great set of skills on a regular basis, replete with plus mobility and high end shooting and puck skills. Thankfully, he also showed promising development in the defensive side of the game.

Now a junior, Hickey has combined the offensive output from his freshman season with the defensive utility from his follow-up campaign. Playing on the primary penalty killing unit for the BU Terriers, a squad with six NHL drafted defensemen is a testament to his trustworthiness in the back. He has an average sized frame and does not shy away from physical play although he will never be mistaken for a bruiser. It would be fair to state that he does not make life easy for opposing forwards. He has an active stick which helps him to break up plays and pick off loose pucks. He transitions very smoothly in either direction, turning back to his defensive duties as quickly as he gets up for an offensive foray.

If I have any concern at all for Hickey’s future projection it is his skating. His stride can be adequate in small areas, as he is agile and his first few steps are strong enough. When it comes to races, or long distance play, he leaves me with some questions. All told, I can give him an average skating grade, but feel that he can be exploited on long range break out passes. The Flames are deep on the blueline and so can afford to give him time in the AHL to hone his game. After the season he is having, I expect him to suit up in Stockton by next fall.

NHL Prospect Watch: San Jose Sharks

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 16 Jun 2016 20:38:17 +0000

Never known for having a great system in place, the San Jose Sharks have combined player development with astute free agent signings and smart trades of draft picks (future assets) for current roster players (present assets) to forge a Stanley Cup competitor. Being able to draft a superstar like Joe Pavelski in the seventh round, and sign European afterthoughts like Melker Karlsson and Joonas Donskoi (himself a fourth round pick of Florida who never came to terms) as free agents provide reminders that there are more ways to build winners than by the tear-down method recently espoused by the likes of the Edmonton Oilers, Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs. Sure, there are former San Jose first rounders on the roster, such as Mr. Shark, Patrick Marleau (2^nd overall, 1997), and Logan Couture (9^th overall, 2007), but that is it. Mirco Mueller (18^th overall, 2013) has exhausted his prospect eligibility, largely by virtue of the 39 games he played for the Sharks as a 19-year old last season, but that developmental error has set the Swiss blueliner back considerably on his path to a legitimate NHL role. Still a smooth skater who should fit the mold of the modern, mobile/puck moving blueliner, he instead all too often reverts to a “safe” style game, rushing his puck movements as soon as he can, as if he had made up his mind before the puck even reached his stick. The tools are still there for Mueller, and age is still definitely on his side, but he would have been far better off having spent another year with Everett last year and spending all of this season with the AHL Barracuda, instead of wasting last year collecting throw away minutes for the Sharks blueline when he was not consigned to the press box. The Sharks are still hoping for another Justin Braun type, but he is not there now, and I would not expect him to reach NHL-level proficiency until he spends at least one more full season in the AHL.

Thankfully, the Sharks exhibited more patience with their 2014 first rounder, Nikolay Goldobin (27^th overall, 2014), although it is possible that that decision was made easier by the young Russian import’s decision to play in Finland in his first post-draft year, leaving the Sarnia Sting of the OHL for HIFK Helsinki. Goldobin held his own as a 19-year old in Finland’s top men’s league, with 21 points in 38 games, and came back to North America to end the season, playing nine regular season and four postseason games for the Sharks AHL affiliate, which was then situated in Worcester. That set the stage for this season, spent almost entirely (outside of a few brief call-ups to the big club) in the AHL with the San Jose Barracuda. With 44 points in 60 AHL games, the season proved that Goldobin can play with the adults in North America. Among 21 and under players in the circuit, only two (Mikko Rantanen and Kevin Fiala) outscored Goldobin. While Goldobin still has a ways to go to be considered a two-way threat, considering his defensive zone game that is still in the early stages of his development, as he often simply watches the puck and waits for one of his teammates to create a turnover before activating his legs. Once in a while, he will make an attempt to pressure or rattle the puck carrier, but will peel off, if it does not pay off quickly. At 5' 11”, 185 lbs, he is still physically unprepossessing, and his physical game is altogether pretty ineffective. With a player like Goldobin, it is easy to get lost in the downside. Don Cherry would hate this guy. Doing so, however, would blind us to an immensely talented puck player. He is an exceptional skater with high end puck skills. When the puck is on his stick, Goldobin is a game breaker. His playmaking abilities are very exciting and when he elects to shoot, his hands are ready to fire instantaneously. His offensive game is ready to contribute at the NHL level. With 11 returning forwards (assuming that Hertl and Nieto sign as RFAs), the Sharks will have a spot available for Goldobin next year. With the amount of experience, talent and dependability on the roster should allow them to bring him along slowly, shielding him with favorable zone starts and opportunities to succeed instead of fail.

(Thanks to Hockey Prospectus author Jason Lewis for notes on Mueller and Goldobin, and other AHL Sharks prospects profiled in this article.

Sticking with the theme of first rounders, we will spend a few sentences on the team’s 2015 pick, Timo Meier (9^th overall, 2015) of the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in the QMJHL. As much as this byline avoids CHL players, with a shallow system such as this, it would be a disservice to skip a dynamic two-way force like Meier – the third CHL-playing European first rounder taken by the Sharks in three years. That trend will end this summer, as the Sharks’ 2016 first rounder was traded last offseason to Boston as part of the package for starting netminder Martin Jones. The sharks reward for missing the playoffs in 2015, Meier began last season tearing up the Q with an otherwise moribund Halifax team, averaging just over 1.5 points per game before he was traded to the Huskies at the Q trade deadline. With the stacked Rouyn-Noranda squad, Meier had less responsibility on his shoulders and his scoring rate subsequently fell (51 points in 29 games), but he was a monster for his team as they won the Q championship and made it to the Memorial Cup final, with a combined 31 points in 23 postseason games.

At 6-1”, 209, Meier has the frame of an adult and plays like one. In other words, his game resembles the prototypical Saskatchewaner than Swiss. His top speed is short of elite, but he makes up for it with a plus first 2-3 steps. When e lowers his head, he can blow by coverage to the outside. He has great strength from hair to toe. When he has possession, he is very hard to strip off the puck, which is due to both to strong as well as quick hands. Very much a heads-up player, Meier tends to look to set up his teammates before deciding to fire on net himself. This is somewhat unfortunate, for although he is a good playmaker, his shot is high end, particularly his wrister, with which he can pick his spots. He also has a mature two-way component to his game, as he does well to identify lackadaisical work by opponents and will pounce on loose/errant pucks and create turnovers. While his size is plus for Junior Hockey, it is closer to average for the pro game and I expect his physical nature to dimish somewhat once he leaves the Quebec league behind. That said, he has a full enough frame that I expect him to at least hold his own physically in the NHL. Speaking of the NHL, he should get a chance to prove himself at the NHL level next season. He is more ready to make an early breakthrough than either of Mueller or Goldobin were.

Another CHL prospect of the Sharks who should not escape notice is former Barrie Colt Kevin Labanc (171^st overall, 2014) who signed an ELC in early March and aged out of the league once the Colts were eliminated in the OHL semifinals. The first thing people notice about Labanc is his eye-popping scoring totals over the past two seasons, as he put up 234 points over 133 regular season games. Last season, he topped the OHL in both assists and points. Now come the caveats. Barrie has been a very good offensive team in both seasons, and Labanc was on stacked lines. In 2014-15, he played mostly with Joseph Blandisi, who has already made waves in the NHL with the New Jersey Devils, and Andrew Mangiapane, a Flames draft pick. Last year, he played with Mangiapane again and Justin Scott, who recently signed as a free agent with Columbus. In other words, he was not putting up those numbers unassisted. His tool set is also not commensurate with someone with such high scoring totals. While his hands and offensive vision are high end, his skating is only slightly above average and while proficient at the two-way game in junior, Labanc will not be competing for Selke Trophies. His shot is actually below average. His goals generally come from being in the right place at the right time. He lacks the release or power to score much from his shot as a stand-alone tool. Labanc will not be given a free ride into the NHL and will need at least one full season at the AHL level to get used to the higher speeds and more limited space on the ice with which to maneuver. If he can hone his off-puck play (he does not have as far to go as Goldobin), he can emerge in 2017-18 or 2018-19 as a solid third line type with higher offensive upside.

The Sharks also had two 2015 draft picks plying their trades with the Chicago Steel of the USHL in defencemen Karlis Cukste (130^th overall, 2015) and Adam Parsells (160^th overall, 2015). Although the latter has the size that scouts dream on, the former is by far the more intriguing pro prospect at the moment. Cukste, a Latvian national who chose to play in the USHL instead of joining Rouyn-Noranda, who held his CHL rights, has committed to play college hockey at Quinnipiac next season. An all zones defender, he impresses with his hockey IQ, own zone play, physical nature and short-windup slapshot. His skating may hold him back, but Quinnipiac has done a good job recently developing blueliners (see Devon Toews and Connor Clifton) and I expect Cukste to find a niche there. Parsells, on the other hand, is a project. Standing 6-6”, he has fantastic height and reach, but he is also rail thin, weighing 192 pounds and has no other standout tools besides his verticality. Used extensively as a stay-at-home blueliner this past season with the Steel, he demonstrated capacity for decent positioning, but he would frustrate by literally never playing physically. The hope for the Sharks is that he develops more of an edge to his game (like his former teammate, Cukste) during his time with the Badgers. At this point, it is far more likely that they let Parsells play out his full four seasons of eligibility than Cukste.

The Sharks have never been averse to drafting college-bound prospects in the mid- to late-rounds of the draft and they sometimes grow up to become bonafide prospects. One, in particular, Gage Ausmus (151^st overall, 2013) wore the “C” for North Dakota this year as that team ended the year as NCAA champs. Ausmus is not an exciting player, and Sharks fans can look at current third pairing blueliner Roman Polak as a template he might be able to fill in the next few seasons. Ausmus has only OK mobility and puck skills, but makes a lot of little plays well and has a sufficient level of physicality to his game to suggest those two traits might carry him through a long professional career. The former USNTDP defender needs repeated viewings to notice, but the way he defends two-on-ones, or uses his stick to separate his opponent from the puck are easy to appreciate. He is too prone to chipping the puck out of his zone without exploring other options, but I think that can fixed through training.

Another intriguing collegiate blueliner is Michigan Tech’s Cliff Watson (168^th overall, 2012). Another team captain, Watson is similarly a high IQ defender with a physical edge but not much in the way of puck skills. Unlike Ausmus, Watson is more likely to look for a pass than a chip, but more often than not, he makes the safe play. Instead of using his stick to defend, Watson is also more likely to use his body to stop the opponent in his tracks. Both Watson and Ausmus are expected to return to their respective schools for their senior seasons.

Finally, harkening back to their successes with Donskoi and Karlsson, the Sharks signed a pair of European free agents this summer to improve their organizational depth. This year, both signees came from the Djurgardens club in SHL. According to Hockey Prospectus author Jimmy Hamrin, Lithuanian netminder Mantas Armalis is coming off a great season, having beat out former NHL goalie Mikael Tellqvist for the starting job. He is a big butterfly goalie who plays close to the goal line and exhibits great reflexes. He sees real NHL potential in the coming years. As for LW Marcus Sorensen, he is more of a flashy, creative forward, but who might have more of an adjustment period to the North American game, as most of his best work has been at least somewhat from the benefit of the extra room on the ice that comes with the European game. He is fast and has plenty of puck skills, but is undersized and lacks functional strength as well. Hamrin’s other main concern with Sorensen is that he did not take any real developmental steps forward in the past year, suggesting that he has already peaked. In a top six role, he might be able to thrive, but the Sharks may not be ready to carry him in that role.