LA Kings – McKeen's Hockey

Friedman’s Five

Daniel Friedman — Fri, 13 Feb 2015 20:41:35 +0000

This was an extremely (not) boring week around the NHL, and there's a lot to get to. So on that note, here are my five key notes and anecdotes on the week that was:

EVANDER KANE TRADE A GRAND SLAM FOR THE JETS

When looking at it from Winnipeg’s perspective, you must first consider the fact that there was no scenario where Kane was staying with the organization.

What he becomes from this point forward is almost irrelevant to whether or not they win this trade. Now, once you’ve taken that into account, consider that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff found a way to take a horrible, difficult situation and turn it into a potential watershed moment for the franchise.

Forget, for a minute here, about the prospects going to Winnipeg in the deal. Tyler Myers is 25-years-old. That’s it. He’s still pretty young. If the change of scenery was all he needed and he gets back to playing defense at a higher level, you’re looking at a blueline that consists of Myers, Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom. That’s not just very good; it’s enviable.

Shift your focus back to youngins Joel Armia and Brendan Lemieux, and the haul looks even better. And don’t forget about Drew Stafford, who’s almost the “throw-in” of this trade. Twice a 20-goal man and once a 31-goal scorer, Stafford’s a quality second or third liner who can certainly chip in offensively.

Everyone and their mother-in-law figured that Kane, while certainly still worth something, would go at a discounted rate because of recent events and that no one was trading for him now while he was injured. Kudos to Cheveldayoff for pulling off one heck of a trade here.

DON’T COUNT OUT THE CATS JUST YET

We’ve had our fair share of surprises this season, but nobody seems to be talking about the Florida Panthers and the job they’ve done so far. This team is just four points behind the Boston Bruins for the final Wild Card spot in the East, and they deserve your attention.

Have they been overachieving? Is their playoff contention simply a byproduct of the slow start Boston got off to? I would say no, because even still there are other teams below them that they’ve had to beat out for their current position. And besides, good teams don’t just take matters into their own hands; they also take advantage of the circumstances and pounce on opportunities they’re handed. The Panthers have done both of those things.

How are they doing it? For one thing, they’re getting excellent goaltending from Roberto Luongo and, for another, they’re developing some offensive depth and it’s showing on the ice. Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Pirri, Jussi Jokinen and Jimmy Hayes are all contributing, and even Vinny Trocheck’s had his moments. Additionally, you can’t give enough credit to Aaron Ekblad who, in his rookie year, is already morphing into one of the best defensemen in the entire NHL and, no, I don’t think that’s an exaggeration.

STUBBORN PREDATORS REFUSE TO FALL DOWN NHL LEADERBOARD

After Pekka Rinne went down, I figured that Nashville’s time atop its own division (and surely, atop the league standings) would come to an end. How wrong I was.

The Preds weathered the storm and, now that they’ve got Rinne back, they’re still winning hockey games and they’re still on top of the NHL. These days, there’s a large emphasis on speed and offense, which is what Peter Laviolette has instilled from behind the bench. And it’s not like Rinne and that defense, which includes the likes of Shea Weber, Seth Jones and Roman Josi, suddenly forgot how to excel at the other end of the rink. To have everything clicking simultaneously, that’s a scary proposition for the rest of the league.

KINGS HEATING UP AT THE RIGHT TIME

No less than a week ago, there was a legitimate concern that the LA Kings might actually miss the playoffs this season. And you know what? They still might. They may very well have woken up to late.

That having been said, they’ve rattled off three-straight wins and are now just three points behind Calgary for a Wild Card spot. We know they’re talented enough, and as much as I like the Jets’ future, I think it’s more likely that they fall out of the race and LA gets in than it is that the Flames burn out (I’ll be here all week).

I think the Kings’ odds of making it have increased exponentially, and in the blink of an eye no less.

DEVAN DUBNYK, LIGHTNING IN A BOTTLE?

Let me preface by saying that I like Devan Dubnyk, both as a player and a person. He’s a good guy and, once he got out of Edmonton, he showed that he’s definitely got some game. I think he’s a reliable backup goaltender, a quality goaltender. But, do I think that he’s the heir apparent in Minnesota (or anywhere else for that matter)? No, I don’t. I think he’ll turn back into a pumpkin one of these days, albeit a more ripe pumpkin than the one he was with the Oilers.

Stylistically and talent-wise, I’m just not convinced he has what it takes to live up to his recent performances over an 82-game stretch. Crazier things have happened before, but for now, I’m gonna go ahead and say he’s a textbook example of lightning in a bottle.

Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @DFriedmanOnNYI

Friedman’s Five

Daniel Friedman — Fri, 06 Feb 2015 16:20:52 +0000

In a new Friday segment for McKeen’s Hockey, I’ll be going over five topics of particular interest from the week that was. Questions? Comments? Feel free to give me a shout @DFriedmanOnNYI. Without further adieu, here we go:

EVANDER KANE ON THE WAY OUT OF TOWN

Assuming you don’t live in a cave, you’re well aware of the recent events surrounding Winnipeg Jets’ forward Evander Kane. Unfortunately, this is not the first time that Kane’s attitude has come into question, and where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.

I have a hard time believing that Dustin Byfuglien threw his teammate’s clothes into the shower over one incident, and I have a feeling that there’s far more to this than a dress code violation.

As far as GM Kevin Chevaldayoff and the Jets are concerned, this is going to be a very tricky issue to solve. They’ve essentially lost most of the leverage they otherwise would’ve had in any trade negotiations for an up-and-comer like Kane, thanks to the negative publicity that continues to pile on. Even if you take his questionable attitude out of the equation, there are other factors working against him here. His production has gone down in each of the last three seasons and he’s constantly injured.

Kane won’t be a Jet for much longer, whether he’s shipped out by the March 2^nd trade deadline or at the entry draft. I suspect the return in any such deal will be underwhelming.

THE VEZINA CANDIDATE NO ONE’S TALKING ABOUT

We’ve seen some excellent goaltending this season, and the usual suspects (i.e. Carey Price, Pekka Rinne and Henrik Lundqvist, among others) are garnering significant attention.

However, there’s one net-minder we aren’t talking about enough, one who deserves every bit as much consideration for the Vezina Trophy right now. That would be Braden Holtby (yes, that Braden Holtby), the goalie who’s currently ranked no lower than sixth in every major statistical category.

Holtby is sixth in wins (25), second in shutouts (six), and fifth in both goals-against average (2.14) and save percentage (.925). He is just as big a reason for Washington’s success this year as Alex Ovechkin, and boy has he bounced back from what had been a very disappointing 2013-14 campaign.

The Capitals elected not to try and re-sign Jaroslav Halak this past summer, trading his rights to the Islanders and placing their faith in Holtby. He’s rewarded them quite nicely for doing so. He’s been outstanding for them, a performance that has him worthy of Vezina considerations in this writer’s opinion.

WHAT’S HAPPENED TO THE LA KINGS?

I supposed that if you win two Stanley Cups in three years, you deserve to take off the following spring.

Certainly, that’s not how the LA Kings are looking at it, but they’re running out of time to prevent that from happening. This isn’t a championship hangover; we’re well past that point. This is just poor execution. It’s hard to really pinpoint what’s gone wrong in Los Angeles, and you can’t really explain why it is that a team with so much talent can possibly be in this predicament.

One thing we’ve always said about these Kings is that they’re specifically built for playoff success, but they kinda just coast through the regular season and then turn it up a notch once April comes around. It may have worked every time until now, but it was never a recommended course of action. There’s no doubt you’re playing with fire when you embrace that type of approach, and while we’ve seen its merits, we’re now seeing its demerits.

But there’s more to this than just a mentality. From a hockey standpoint, the Kings just haven’t been the same. The defense appears to have taken a step back or two and Jonathan Quick hasn’t had a good year. In the extremely talented Western Conference, even the slightest error can push you out of playoff contention, and that’s what appears to have happened to the Kings. I fully-expect them to turn it around next season, but this one appears to be all but over.

METROPOLITAN DIVISION RACE HEATS UP

I think we knew the Metro would be interesting this season, but I’m not sure anyone could’ve predicted the neck-and-neck battle that has transpired here. Just three points separate the fourth-place Capitals and first-place Islanders (you read that second part correctly), and the exciting part is that Washington and the Rangers only joined in the fun over the last month or so.

Good luck trying to guess who’ll finish atop the division after 82 games, especially now that the two New York teams have lost key players (Henrik Lundqvist, Kyle Okposo) to injuries. There will probably be multiple twists and turns to come.

CAN ANYONE STOP THE BLUES?

This is now the third-consecutive year I’m picking the Blues to win the Cup (third time has to be the charm, right?), and for good reason.

It’s worth pointing out that they’ve gotten better and better in each of the last three seasons, and 2014-15 has been a special one. On Thursday night, they extended their point streak to 13 games, shutting out Buffalo by a 3-0 score. They’re doing it with proficient defense and goaltending, but they’ve also got more firepower this time around.

Vladimir Tarasenko was already a dangerous scorer before this season, but he’s risen to another level. The same can be said for Jaden Schwartz, and newcomer Jori Lehtera has turned out to be an outstanding addition.

They’ll have a tough hill to climb in the playoffs; any road they take will likely have to pass through the Chicago Blackhawks, and that won’t be an easy out. But I think they’re more prepared to get over that hump than before.

Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @DFriedmanOnNYI

Player Usage Charts

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 05:20:09 +0000

A feature we weren’t able to accommodate in the print edition of Yearbook was introducing a player metric introduced by Rob Vollman, aptly named ‘Player Usage Charts.’

I love the way the charts provide a quick glimpse of a player’s usage – primarily, from a coaching perspective - based on various factors. I was an easy and early convert, and lucky enough to have captured player usage – when the charts themselves were called OZQoc charts – prior to former Toronto Maple Leafs coach Ron Wilson’s dismissal contrasted with in-coming coach Randy Carlyle and his usage preferences.

Guest writer Jonathan Willis will describe the features of the charts below with an article originally written for inclusion in our print version of the magazine. Some poolies may not be using some of the newly forming advanced metrics, and miss out on value-added analysis in their draft and day-to-day fantasy decision-making.

Fortunately, we were able to include the full 30-team player usage charts as an added feature for online subscribers of the magazine. Once the season starts up the plan is to take snap shots at monthly intervals as charts for reference. Sample size is an issue, but as a quick glance reference, I think it’s a small factor. Monthly comparisons on player movement as teams adapt to injury shuffles throughout the roster and prolonged scoring swings in either direction.

The Print copy of the McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook hits stands September 10.

Los Angeles Kings Player Usage Chart

By: Jonathan Willis

The Kings’ regular-season player usage chart, seen above, tracks three key statistical measures of individual players. A player’s height on the chart shows the level of competition that each faced – the higher a player ranks, the tougher his opponents. Which side of the chart each player is on shows which zone his coach used him in – a position further to the left indicates more starts in the defensive zone, a position to the right shows more starts in the opposition zone. The final factor is each player’s bubble, which tracks Corsi, a measure of shots, missed shots and blocked shots for and against at even-strength (a strong Corsi number typically indicates that a player does a good job of keeping the puck in the offensive zone). A dark bubble shows a player with a good Corsi number, a light bubble shows a negative Corsi, while the size of the bubble indicates how good or bad each player’s number was.

The chart drives home how dominant the Kings’ regular top line of Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Justin Williams was. The trio – especially Kopitar – typically matched against excellent opponents, while not getting an excessive number of offensive zone starts. Despite these difficult minutes, they were successful in keeping the puck in the offensive end of the rink, something that not only helped the Kings score but also limited their opponents’ ability to pick up goals.

Results for the supporting cast are more mixed. Simon Gagne and Dwight King both look pretty good by this measure, but both played just a fraction of the regular season – Gagne appearing in 34 games due to injury, King in 27 after being recalled from the AHL. Dustin Penner and Brad Richardson both fared well in support roles, while Jeff Carter and Jarret Stoll did a good job of maintaining puck possession given the difficulty of the minutes they played. Mike Richards typically looks good by these measures, but uncharacteristically struggled during the regular season – with Richards on the ice in 5-on-5 situations, the Kings were out-shot 27-to-25; with him off the ice, they out-shot their opposition 29-to-24. In his defense, he played difficult minutes but even so it was a weaker year than normal for him.

Unsurprisingly, the fourth line had difficulties maintaining possession of the puck – Colin Fraser, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan and Trevor Lewis were all out-shot to one degree or other.

On defence, the clear star is Drew Doughty, who overcame some very tough minutes to help the Kings drive puck possession. Of the three full-season defencemen relied on to play tough minutes, Doughty clearly did the best job of keeping the puck in the offensive zone.

The other two defenders leaned on in significant minutes were stay-at-home types Rob Scuderi and Willie Mitchell. Scuderi was Doughty’s most common partner, with the duo lining up as a pairing more than 70% of the time, but when separated he was typically used in a pure-defense role, as evidenced by his tougher zone starts. Mitchell typically got second-pairing duty, and did a good job of holding his own in that assignment, though over the years he’s also shown an ability to take on top-pairing opposition when required.

It’s also clear why Los Angeles felt that Slava Voynov could step in for departed blue-liner Jack Johnson. While the rookie was primarily used in favourable situations over the course of the year he did a good job of generating offense over his 54 regular season games, an unsurprising development after a very strong 2010-11 campaign in the AHL.

Alec Martinez and Matt Greene round out the Kings’ defensive group, with both putting in a fine showing as third-pairing defenders. As with Scuderi and Doughty, the pair typically played together, but when separated were used in vastly different assignments. Martinez was never relied on for anything more than third-pairing work: the weakest possible opposition and lots of time in the offensive zone; to his credit, the Kings did a good job of controlling the play in those situations when he was on the ice. Greene, however, had tougher minutes – sometimes playing on a higher pairing with Jack Johnson, and sometimes being used on a defensive zone tandem with either Mitchell or Scuderi. He held his own despite occasionally being thrust into a more difficult role.

The heart of their eventual Stanley Cup victory (or at least, the non-goalie part) shows up well here: a dominant first line, capable tough-minutes defenders and an able supporting cast.

Jonathan Willis currently writes for the Edmonton Journal, the Nation Network, Grantland and Hockey Prospectus; previously his work has appeared at ESPN, The Score, Yahoo's Puck Daddy blog and SBNation. He can be found on Twitter at twitter.com/JonathanWillis.